住宅地產 (EQR) 2025 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good day and welcome to the Equity Residential first quarter 2025 earnings conference call and webcast. Today's conference is being recorded. At this time, I would like to turn the conference over to Mr. Marty McKenna. Please go ahead, sir.

大家好，歡迎參加 Equity Residential 2025 年第一季財報電話會議和網路廣播。今天的會議正在錄製中。現在，我想將會議交給馬蒂·麥肯納先生。先生，請繼續。

Good morning and thanks for joining us to discuss Equity Residential's First Quarter 2025 results. Our featured speakers today are Mark Parrell, our President and CEO; and Michael Manelis, our Chief Operating Officer. Both Bob Garechana, our CFO; and Alec Brackenridge, our Chief Investment Officer, are here with us as well for the Q&A. One of our peers will be hosting their call in an hour or so. So we plan to finish in time for that call to begin on time.

早安，感謝您加入我們討論 Equity Residential 2025 年第一季的業績。我們今天的特邀演講嘉賓是我們的總裁兼執行長馬克·帕雷爾 (Mark Parrell) 和我們的營運長 Michael Manelis。我們的財務長 Bob Garechana 和首席投資長 Alec Brackenridge 也來到現場參加問答環節。我們的一位同事將在大約一小時後主持他們的電話會議。因此，我們計劃及時完成，以便通話能夠準時開始。

(Event Instructions)

（活動須知）

Our earnings release is posted in the Investors section of equityapartments.com. Please be advised that certain matters discussed during this conference call may constitute forward-looking statements within the meaning of the federal securities laws. These forward-looking statements are subject to certain economic risks and uncertainties. The company assumes no obligation to update or supplement these statements that become untrue because of subsequent events. Now I will turn the call over to Mark Parrell.

我們的收益報告發佈於 equityapartments.com 的「投資者」板塊。請注意，本次電話會議中討論的某些事項可能構成聯邦證券法所定義的前瞻性陳述。這些前瞻性陳述受到某些經濟風險和不確定性的影響。本公司不承擔更新或補充因後續事件而變得不真實的這些陳述的義務。現在我將電話轉給馬克·帕雷爾。

Thank you, Marty. Good morning and thank you all for joining us today to discuss our first quarter 2025 results. I will start us off, then Michael Manelis, our Chief Operating Officer, will speak to our first quarter operating performance, then we'll go ahead and take your questions. Our first quarter results exceeded our expectations, and we are well positioned for the primary leasing season. Our operating dashboards continue to show good to excellent demand across all of our markets with levels of supply the main differentiator and the strength of each market's performance.

謝謝你，馬蒂。早安，感謝大家今天加入我們討論 2025 年第一季的業績。首先，我們的營運長 Michael Manelis 將介紹我們的第一季營運業績，然後我們將繼續回答您的問題。我們第一季的業績超出了我們的預期，並且我們為主要租賃季節做好了準備。我們的營運儀表板繼續顯示所有市場的需求良好至卓越，供應水準是主要的區別因素和每個市場表現的強度。

As is our usual practice in the first quarter, we have not made any changes to our guidance. Like most market participants, we see a higher-than-usual level of uncertainty in the forward path of the economy given various recent governmental actions relating to tariffs and other matters. The impact of these actions on the larger economy and on our business are hard to estimate currently and will take some time to unfold.

按照我們第一季的慣例，我們沒有對我們的指導做出任何改變。與大多數市場參與者一樣，鑑於政府近期在關稅和其他問題上採取的各種行動，我們認為經濟未來走向的不確定性高於正常水平。這些行動對整體經濟和我們業務的影響目前很難估計，並且需要一段時間才能顯現。

That said, Equity Residential will continue to benefit from powerful supply and demand tailwinds that favor the rental housing sector, including the long-term undersupply of rental housing in our markets, the high cost and low inventory of single-family-owned housing and demographic and social factors that are driving increased rental housing demand, especially for our higher-quality communities located in our country's most desirable metro areas.

儘管如此，Equity Residential 將繼續受益於有利於租賃住房行業的強勁供需順風，包括我們市場長期的租賃住房供應不足、單戶住宅的高成本和低庫存以及推動租賃住房需求增加的人口和社會因素，特別是對於位於我國最理想的大都市地區的高品質社區而言。

Also being a strong cash flow business with a material dividend and fortress balance sheet and without foreign operations in a time of heightened uncertainty is a definitive positive and may lead to opportunity later.

此外，在高度不確定的時期，擁有強勁的現金流、可觀的股息和穩健的資產負債表，並且沒有海外業務的企業，無疑是一個利好，並可能在日後帶來機會。

Turning to investment matters. We have left unchanged our guidance for $1.5 billion of acquisitions and $1 billion of dispositions in 2025. When we gave guidance, we expected to transact very little in the first quarter, and that was the case. The institutional sales market in the first quarter was reasonably busy with volumes higher than a year ago but still below pre-COVID deal volume levels. At the prices so far, Simon affected by higher rates and uncertainty.

談到投資問題。我們維持 2025 年 15 億美元收購和 10 億美元處置的指導方針不變。當我們給予指引時，我們預計第一季的交易量會很少，事實也確實如此。第一季的機構銷售市場相當繁忙，交易量高於一年前，但仍低於疫情前的交易量水準。就目前的價格而言，西蒙受到了利率上升和不確定性的影響。

There are probably several factors at play here, including some sales that closed in the first quarter that were contracted for an earlier, more stable time or that involved mandatory reinvestment needs like Section 1031 exchanges.

這裡可能有幾個因素在起作用，包括第一季完成的一些銷售，這些銷售的合約簽訂時間更早、更穩定，或涉及第 1031 條交易所等強制再投資需求。

However, we also continue to see a significant number of buyers interested in investing in multifamily assets at 5 cap rates and below given their stable cash flow and inflation protection characteristics and secular supply and demand tailwinds. If apartments continue to evolve as a safe haven trade in real estate and in an increasingly uncertain world, we would expect over time for our company's multiple to reflect that fact and to increase accordingly.

然而，我們也繼續看到大量買家有興趣投資 5 個資本化率及以下的多戶型資產，因為它們具有穩定的現金流和通膨保護特性以及長期的供需順風。如果公寓繼續發展成為房地產和日益不確定的世界中的安全港交易，我們預計隨著時間的推移，我們公司的本益比將反映這一事實並相應增加。

And with that, I'll turn the call over to Michael Manelis.

說完這些，我將把電話轉給 Michael Manelis。

Thanks, Mark, and thanks to everybody for joining us today. I'm going to provide a quick update on our performance, and then we'll begin the Q&A session. So overall, we had a good first quarter with same-store revenue growth that exceeded our expectations.

謝謝，馬克，也謝謝大家今天加入我們。我將簡要介紹我們的表現，然後我們將開始問答環節。整體而言，我們第一季表現良好，同店營收成長超出了我們的預期。

The stronger performance was driven by better physical occupancy at 96.5% across the portfolio and resident turnover of only 7.9%, which set the record for the lowest that we have ever reported. This is a continuation of a very favorable prior trend and supports the strength of our centralized renewal process and intense focus on delivering our residents a quality experience.

業績表現強勁的原因是，整個投資組合的實際入住率更高，達到 96.5%，而住戶流動率僅為 7.9%，創下了我們報告以來的最低紀錄。這是之前非常有利的趨勢的延續，並支持了我們集中更新流程的優勢以及為居民提供優質體驗的高度關注。

In addition, ended rate growth of 1.8% in the quarter came in right at the midpoint of our expected range. We saw strength in New York and Washington, D.C. as well as continued improvement in our West Coast markets of Seattle and San Francisco. All of this positions us well to take advantage of the opportunities that the primary leasing season brings.

此外，本季最終利率成長率為 1.8%，正好處於我們預期範圍的中間值。我們看到紐約和華盛頓特區的強勁表現，同時西雅圖和舊金山等西海岸市場的持續改善。所有這些都使我們能夠充分利用主要租賃季節帶來的機會。

In times of heightened uncertainty, as we see currently, we remind our teams to keep their eyes on their operating dashboards, tracking demand, leasing velocity and pricing power, all of which are blinking green currently and look in line to slightly ahead of our expectations.

在目前不確定性加劇的時期，我們提醒我們的團隊密切注意他們的營運儀表板、追蹤需求、租賃速度和定價能力，所有這些目前都閃爍著綠色，看起來略高於我們的預期。

We also keep a close eye on job growth expectations and level of new supply in our markets. And as we sit here today, the job numbers to date have been solid, but we acknowledge less certainty in the future job growth projections.

我們也密切關注市場中的就業成長預期和新供應水準。今天，當我們坐在這裡時，迄今為止的就業數據一直很穩健，但我們承認，未來就業成長預測不太確定。

But what is clear is that we are getting even more positive on less impact from future supply as we expect the current environment to even further reduce the number of apartment starts this year as capital allocators hesitate to make big outlays in turbulent times. In addition, the financial health of our residents remained strong. In fact, the average household income of the residents who rented with us in the last 12 months is up from the prior year period, and the average rent-to-income ratios remain very favorable at 20%.

但顯然的是，我們對未來供應影響的減少更加樂觀，因為我們預計當前的環境將進一步減少今年的公寓開工數量，因為資本配置者不願意在動盪時期進行大規模支出。此外，我們居民的財務狀況依然強勁。事實上，過去 12 個月在我們這裡租房的居民的平均家庭收入比去年同期有所上升，平均租金收入比仍然保持在 20% 的非常有利水平。

Our centralized processes and system transparency provides us with a powerful and immediate feedback loop to any potential shifts in conditions on the ground in our markets. As of today, we are not seeing any signs of consumer weakness, which typically shows up and increases the number of lease breaks, unit transfers to lower rent units, increases in delinquencies or a slowing percent of residents renewing their leases with us.

我們的集中流程和系統透明度為我們提供了強大且即時的回饋迴路，可以隨時了解市場實際情況的任何潛在變化。截至今天，我們還沒有看到任何消費者疲軟的跡象，而消費者疲軟的跡象通常表現為租約中斷的數量增加、單位轉移到低租金單位、拖欠率增加或與我們續簽租約的居民比例下降。

I'm not going to go around the horn to all markets, but I will highlight a few that have likely been on people's minds. First, to our nation's capital. There have been a lot of questions on what the impact from government job layoffs in the market will look like.

我不會對所有市場進行全面介紹，但我會重點介紹一些人們可能關注的市場。首先，到我們國家的首都。關於政府裁員對市場將產生何種影響，有許多疑問。

And as of now, we are not seeing an impact. I recently spent a few days in the market, touring our assets in D.C. and Northern Virginia. Right now, we are over 97% occupied in the market and producing good rent growth. There are a few stories of residents expressing concern due to job loss but nothing at the moment that is impacting any of our stats, results or projections for the next 90 days in the market.

截至目前，我們還沒有看到影響。我最近花了幾天時間在市場上，參觀我們在華盛頓特區和北維吉尼亞州的資產。目前，我們的市場入住率超過 97%，且租金成長良好。有一些居民表達了對失業的擔憂，但目前這些都不會影響我們對未來 90 天市場的數據、結果或預測。

Although I would remind you that we would be a lagging indicator, not a leading one. I can also tell you that we have seen some inbound inquiries from a few West Coast residents needing to relocate to the D.C. market now that the in-office work is required by the government. It is also important to note that in the past, we have seen situations, for example, in Seattle and San Francisco, that experienced layoffs with extended severance periods. And the result was more about a slowing of rent growth than any kind of increase in lease breaks, delinquency or move-outs.

但我要提醒你，我們是落後指標，而不是領先指標。我還可以告訴你，我們已經看到一些西海岸居民的來電諮詢，他們現在需要搬遷到華盛頓特區市場，因為政府要求在辦公室工作。另外值得注意的是，過去我們曾看到西雅圖和舊金山等地的裁員和延長遣散期的情況。其結果更多的是租金成長放緩，而不是租約中斷、拖欠或搬離的增加。

In terms of supply, the D.C. market is expected to deliver another 12,000 units this year with a material drop-off projected in 2026. After seeing the peak in the third quarter of 2024, it is clear that our portfolio will see -- or continue to see less direct supply throughout 2025 and '26.

在供應方面，預計華盛頓特區市場今年將再交付 12,000 套住房，2026 年將大幅下降。在 2024 年第三季達到高峰之後，很明顯我們的投資組合將在 2025 年和 2026 年看到或繼續看到直接供應減少。

On the West Coast, Los Angeles is a bit of a mixed bag. I was just in the market several weeks ago, and while we have been able to build physical occupancy sequentially and turnover has improved, pricing power remains somewhat elusive.

在西海岸，洛杉磯的情況有點複雜。幾週前我剛進入市場，雖然我們已經能夠連續提高實體入住率並且營業額有所提高，但定價能力仍然有些難以捉摸。

Performance is much stronger in the suburban submarkets of Santa Carina and Ventura County than the more urban infill locations with little overall operating impacts from the wildfires earlier this year. We believe that the slow pace of recovery in the entertainment business, along with some quality-of-life issues, are contributing to this performance. We are hoping that recent increases in tax subsidies will lure more entertainment production and resident demand back to the market.

聖卡麗娜縣和文圖拉縣郊區子市場的表現比城市填充區強勁得多，今年稍早的野火對整體營運的影響很小。我們認為，娛樂業復甦步伐緩慢以及一些生活品質問題導致了這種表現。我們希望近期稅收補貼的增加能吸引更多的娛樂製作和居民需求重返市場。

Now to the tech centers of San Francisco and Seattle. San Francisco is showing the improvement that we talked about at our recent Investor Day with portfolio-wide occupancy running above 97%.

現在我們來談談舊金山和西雅圖的科技中心。正如我們在最近的投資者日所談到的，舊金山正在呈現改善，整個投資組合的入住率已超過 97%。

Turnover declined in the quarter, and although concessions continue to be common in the market, we are seeing opportunities to increase base rents at a pace that is better than we expected. The downtown submarket is demonstrating strong momentum with very stable high occupancy and concessions declining pretty steadily all year so far, both in the percent of applications and dollar amounts being given.

本季營業額有所下降，儘管市場上的優惠政策仍然很普遍，但我們看到了以比預期更好的速度提高基本租金的機會。市中心子市場表現出強勁勢頭，入住率非常穩定，優惠政策全年迄今一直在穩步下降，無論是申請比例還是給予的金額。

And those declines are on top of the increases we are also seeing in base rent, which combined is fueling our net effective prices in the marketplace. We like what we see from the new mayor and his focus on improving quality of life and promoting local businesses. Tech employment seems stable with more employers pushing a more robust return-to-office policy.

我們也看到基本租金正在下降，兩者共同推高了我們在市場上的淨有效價格。我們喜歡新市長的所作所為以及他對改善生活品質和促進當地企業發展的關注。隨著更多雇主推行更強大的復工政策，科技業就業情況似乎保持穩定。

And most of the supply will be delivered in the Peninsula and South Bay, which have been among the better-performing submarkets for a while. There will be no new supply downtown, which should benefit our portfolio there. Seattle also continues to show signs of improvement. The return to office from Amazon has been a positive for the market. Occupancy is at 96.5%, and we saw good rental rate growth in the quarter.

大部分供應將來自半島和南灣，這兩個地區一段時間以來一直是表現較好的子市場之一。市中心不會有新的供應，這對我們在那裡的投資組合有利。西雅圖也繼續顯示出改善的跡象。亞馬遜重返辦公室對市場來說是一個利好。入住率為 96.5%，本季租金率成長良好。

Tech employment seemed stable in this market as well. And while we are seeing an impact from new supply in both the Downtown and Redmond submarkets, we expect that impact to lessen materially as the year progresses.

這個市場的技術就業似乎也很穩定。雖然我們看到市中心和雷德蒙子市場新增供應的影響，但我們預計隨著時間的推移，這種影響將大幅減弱。

Turning to our expansion markets in the first quarter. Atlanta, Dallas and Austin performed pretty much as we expected given the challenging operating conditions due to the level of competitive new supply impacting our same-store assets. Denver's overall demand felt a little weaker than we would have expected in the quarter, which resulted in less pricing power.

談到我們第一季的擴張市場。由於競爭激烈的新供應水準影響了我們的同店資產，導致經營條件十分艱難，但亞特蘭大、達拉斯和奧斯汀的表現基本上符合我們的預期。本季丹佛的整體需求比我們預期的要弱一些，導致定價能力下降。

As we sit here today, overall, demand across all four markets is showing seasonal improvement heading into the peak leasing season. That being said, concessions are in wide use in these markets, and we continue to have muted expectation for the first half of the year.

今天，當我們坐在這裡時，總體而言，進入租賃旺季，四個市場的需求都呈現出季節性改善。話雖如此，這些市場仍廣泛實施優惠政策，我們對今年上半年的預期仍然不高。

Switching to innovation and automation updates, which we provided details on at our recent Investor Day. We are in the process of expanding the deployment of our conversational AI capabilities across the entire leasing journey. This, along with the broader strategic automation initiative, is designed to reduce manual tasks, accelerate leasing cycles, minimize errors and ultimately improve our overall efficiency and scalability, all while improving the overall prospect experience.

轉向創新和自動化更新，我們在最近的投資者日提供了詳細資訊。我們正在擴大對話式人工智慧功能在整個租賃過程中的部署。這項計畫與更廣泛的策略自動化計畫一起，旨在減少手動任務、加快租賃週期、最大限度地減少錯誤，並最終提高我們的整體效率和可擴展性，同時改善整體潛在客戶體驗。

By this time next year, we expect the process from the initial inquiry, the lease signing to be almost entirely automating, giving our customers more self-service and the ability to work with our teams as much or as little as they choose. We are very pleased with the momentum we have on the various initiatives relating to both other income generation as well as operating efficiencies and improved customer experiences.

到明年這個時候，我們預計從初步諮詢到簽訂租約的整個過程將幾乎完全實現自動化，為我們的客戶提供更多的自助服務，並能夠根據自己的選擇與我們的團隊進行盡可能多的或盡可能少的合作。我們對與增加其他收入、提高營運效率和改善客戶體驗相關的各種措施所取得的進展感到非常高興。

As we think about the second quarter, we expect to continue to see a sequential build in new lease change and strong, stable performance in terms of retention, achieve renewal rate increases and occupancy. We have an expectation for blended rate growth of 2.8% to 3.4% in the second quarter and feel really well positioned as we enter the primary leasing season despite the overall economic ambiguity.

展望第二季度，我們預計新租賃變更將持續連續增加，保留率將維持強勁且穩定的表現，並實現續約率和入住率的提高。我們預計第二季的綜合利率成長率將達到 2.8% 至 3.4%，儘管整體經濟狀況不明朗，但在進入主要租賃季節時，我們感覺自己處於非常有利的位置。

Our operational agility and strategic focus will ensure that we are not only able to navigate any potential near-term economic headwinds but are poised to capitalize on future opportunities to deliver sustained value.

我們的營運靈活性和策略重點將確保我們不僅能夠應對任何潛在的短期經濟逆風，而且還能利用未來的機會來實現持續的價值。

At this time, I will turn the call over to the operator to begin the Q&A session.

現在，我將把電話轉給接線員，開始問答環節。

(Operator Instructions) Eric Wolfe, Citi.

（操作員指示）花旗銀行 Eric Wolfe。

Just curious what you're seeing in terms of acquisition opportunities in Sunbelt right now. And just given what's happened over the last month with increased macro uncertainty, just curious if that changes your views on Sunbelt fundamentals over the next year or two just as you sort of need more job growth to absorb supply or if it doesn't really matter for your view on the fundamentals in those markets?

我只是好奇您現在在陽光地帶看到了哪些收購機會。鑑於上個月宏觀不確定性的增加，我很好奇這是否會改變您對未來一兩年陽光地帶基本面的看法，就像您需要更多的就業增長來吸收供應一樣，或者這對您對這些市場基本面的看法是否真的無關緊要？

Eric, it's Alec. So it was an interesting year. The beginning of the year, as Mark mentioned, is showing less transactions activity. And what did close has really been priced in Q4. So there's kind of a lull towards the end of the first quarter.

艾瑞克，我是亞歷克。所以這是有趣的一年。正如馬克所提到的，今年年初的交易活動較少。而實際成交價已在第四季反映出來。因此，第一季末會出現一種平靜的局面。

But since then, in the last month or so, things have really picked up. And it's a reflection of two things. One is just that there are lenders that have just kind of had it and they're not extending loans anymore. They're not extending caps on interest rates. So we're seeing some more products starting to come to the market.

但自那時起，大約在過去一個月裡，情況確實有所改善。這反映了兩件事。一是有些貸款機構已經受夠了這種情況，不再發放貸款了。他們不會延長利率上限。因此我們看到更多的產品開始進入市場。

At the same time, there's a lot of interest in buying that product. So multifamily remains a favorite asset class, and we expect to see that continue. So pricing for deals is around a 5 cap. People are buying into an environment where they think that the dramatically decreasing supply will offset some uncertainty on the job side, I think.

同時，人們對購買該產品的興趣也很大。因此，多戶型住宅仍然是受歡迎的資產類別，我們預計這種情況將持續下去。因此交易定價上限約為 5。我認為，人們正在接受這樣一種環境，他們認為供應的急劇減少將抵消就業方面的一些不確定性。

I mean, I think everyone is a little uncertain about where we're headed, but buying in at a good basis in markets that have robust likely future job growth is something that is attractive to us and others, but we anticipate being active.

我的意思是，我認為每個人對我們的發展方向都有些不確定，但在未來就業成長強勁的市場中以良好的基礎買入對我們和其他人來說都是有吸引力的，但我們預計將積極行動。

Got it. That's helpful. And then second question on your blended spread guidance. Can you just talk about how you form that? Is that based off a normal seasonal curve? And sort of what percentage of the leases have you already signed for the second quarter so far?

知道了。這很有幫助。第二個問題是關於您的混合利差指導。你能談談你是如何形成它的嗎？這是基於正常的季節曲線嗎？到目前為止，您已經簽署了第二季多少比例的租約？

Eric, this is Michael. So yes, I think the way that we kind of formulate it is we're just looking at new lease change and kind of our understanding of what we expect for the seasonal trends. At the beginning of the year, we said we expected this year to play out with normal rent seasonality.

埃里克，這是麥可。所以是的，我認為我們制定它的方式是我們只是在關注新的租約變化以及我們對季節性趨勢的預期的理解。年初，我們曾表示，預計今年的租金季節性將維持正常。

So we're kind of modeling just that kind of sequential build as we work our way kind of through the peak leasing season. So sitting here today, I mean, the range of 2.8% to 3.4%, it's really based on consistent performance in renewals because those are numbers that we already have out in the marketplace.

因此，我們在租賃旺季期間對這種連續建設進行了建模。所以今天坐在這裡，我的意思是，2.8% 到 3.4% 的範圍實際上是基於續約的持續表現，因為這些是我們已經在市場上公佈的數字。

We're still pretty early in. So obviously, we have all the April month kind of in there, but we have sequential build happening in volume as well for May and June. So I would say we're still under 1/3 of the transactions from a new lease side. And on the renewal side, just a little bit more kind of predictability and confidence in that kind of 5% range.

我們還處於早期階段。顯然，四月的銷量都在增長，但五月和六月的銷量也在持續增長。所以我想說，我們的新租賃交易量仍不到 1/3。在更新方面，在 5% 的範圍內，可預測性和信心會更高一些。

David Segall, Green Street.

大衛‧西格爾 (David Segall)，綠街。

It seems that the Bay Area is continuing to outperform, and Seattle is perhaps plateauing a little bit. I'm curious if you have any thoughts on why those markets seem to be diverging slightly this quarter and if you think one market tends to lead the other.

看起來灣區的表現持續優於其他地區，而西雅圖的表現可能略有停滯。我很好奇，您是否想過為什麼這些市場本季似乎略有分歧，以及您是否認為一個市場傾向於引領另一個市場。

Yes. David, this is Michael. So I think when you look at both of these markets, I guess I would have you go back to kind of a little bit the sentiment that we laid out at the Investor Day, which is the recovery that we had baked in for the year for both of these markets. Sitting here today, if you went back and look at kind of my prepared remarks from last quarter, Seattle kind of had a little bit more momentum in the fourth quarter heading into the first quarter. And right now, it's playing out exactly like we see with -- it does show some improvement sequentially.

是的。大衛，這是麥可。因此，我認為，當你審視這兩個市場時，我想讓你回想一下我們在投資者日所闡述的情緒，即我們在今年為這兩個市場所預示的復甦。今天坐在這裡，如果你回顧我上個季度準備好的發言，你會發現西雅圖在第四季進入第一季時勢頭稍強。現在，它的表現正如我們所看到的——它確實顯示了一些連續的改進。

It is kind of on track with our improvement that we modeled in for the year. San Francisco was a little bit slower to have the head start like Seattle, but right now is really coming out of the gate strong and actually exceeded our expectations. Both of these markets, I would say, have these urban centers that still have this net effective pricing that's improving, but there's still about 6% to 7% below where they were prepandemic. So for us, this means that they still have a lot more room than most other submarkets nationally to go up before hitting kind of at any renter fatigue level.

這與我們今年所模擬的改進情況基本一致。舊金山的起步比西雅圖稍慢一些，但現在確實表現強勁，實際上超出了我們的預期。我想說，這兩個市場都擁有一些城市中心，這些城市的淨有效定價仍在改善，但仍比疫情前低約 6% 至 7%。因此對我們來說，這意味著在達到租房疲勞程度之前，它們仍然比全國大多數其他子市場擁有更大的上漲空間。

So I wouldn't read too much into any one quarter. I would say both of these markets are following a trajectory right now of recovery and still have more room to go. But we do like what we're seeing in San Francisco, and you can tell that from my prepared remarks.

所以我不會對任何一個季度進行過多的解讀。我想說這兩個市場目前都處於復甦軌跡之中，還有很大的發展空間。但我們確實喜歡在舊金山看到的一切，您可以從我準備好的演講中看出這一點。

Great. And can you just comment on the relative attractiveness of acquisitions versus buybacks or your developments given where the shares are trading and, say, of the transaction markets you've already described?

偉大的。您能否根據股票交易情況以及您已經描述的交易市場，評論一下收購與回購的相對吸引力，或者您的發展？

Yes. It's Mark. Thanks for that question, David. So just comparing those and just having that kind of conversation, we think our best opportunity continues to be investing in existing assets in these primary acquisition markets of Dallas, Denver and Atlanta. We're still interested in Austin, but there's such a glut of supply that's probably a little bit later for us to complete our portfolio there.

是的。是馬克。謝謝你的提問，大衛。因此，透過比較這些並進行這樣的對話，我們認為我們最好的機會仍然是投資達拉斯、丹佛和亞特蘭大這些主要收購市場的現有資產。我們仍然對奧斯汀感興趣，但那裡的供應過剩，我們可能需要稍晚才能完成那裡的投資組合。

We like development incrementally more than we did 90 days ago. We're seeing some deals that makes some sense to underwrite. There's a lot of risk in development with construction costs, maybe immigration pressures on staffing. But we're being really thoughtful about that, and you may see a few starts there. We are certainly open to a share buyback.

與 90 天前相比，我們更喜歡逐步發展。我們看到一些值得承銷的交易。開發過程中存在很大風險，包括建造成本，以及移民對人員配備的壓力。但我們對此進行了認真的思考，您可能會看到一些進展。我們當然願意回購股票。

We want to be mindful of the uncertainty that's out there for all 3 of those investment alternatives, and we'll step very carefully. And what I would say is for pretty well all our investment activity now, it's going to be more of a recycling exercise, meaning dispositions will fund acquisitions, disposition or net cash flow will fund development, incremental new development activity, and dispositions will fund any share buyback that we do decide to do.

我們要留意這三種投資選擇都存在的不確定性，我們會非常謹慎地採取行動。我想說的是，對於我們現在所有的投資活動來說，它將更像是一種回收活動，這意味著處置將為收購提供資金，處置或淨現金流將為開發、增量新開發活動提供資金，處置將為我們決定進行的任何股票回購提供資金。

So the guidance does imply net reinvestment, and that could happen at this juncture with this level of uncertainty. We're probably a little more of a match funder. You recall last year, we were incrementally growing. We issued debt and bought some extra assets there. But it's hard to do that right now with the cap rates, where Alec told you they were in the Sunbelt.

因此，該指引確實意味著淨再投資，並且在當前這種不確定性的情況下，這種情況可能會發生。我們可能更像是個配套資助者。你還記得去年，我們正在逐步成長。我們在那裡發行了債務併購買了一些額外的資產。但現在，考慮到資本化率，很難做到這一點，亞歷克告訴你，他們位於陽光地帶。

Steve Sakwa, Evercore ISI.

史蒂夫‧薩誇 (Steve Sakwa)，Evercore ISI。

I'm just curious, Michael, if you're changing anything on the operating side, meaning are you sending out renewal notices earlier? Are you looking to lock down a resident sooner just to kind of derisk the leasing season? Or from your standpoint, these are sort of small bumps in the road and it's pretty much business as usual?

我只是好奇，邁克爾，如果您在操作方面做出任何改變，這意味著您會提前發出續約通知嗎？您是否希望儘早鎖定住戶，以降低租賃季節的風險？或者從您的角度來看，這些都是道路上的小顛簸，一切照常？

Yes. Steve, this is Michael. So there's really no change right now, I would say, in our renewal process. A lot of the timing that we're doing is also governed by statutes in the markets that have notice periods. And we have a pretty robust process that's centralized right now.

是的。史蒂夫，這是麥可。所以我想說，目前我們的更新過程確實沒有改變。我們所做的許多時間安排也受到市場上有通知期的法規的約束。我們現在有一個非常強大且集中的流程。

So the minute that, that notice kind of is going out into our resident portal, we're having constant communication with those residents, trying to see if we can get kind of those early notices or get a little bit of that kind of confirmation their intent to renew with us. So I would say the setup right now has positioned us really well heading into this leasing season. And I don't see us kind of changing anything right now, which is typically -- you've got your occupancy bill.

因此，當該通知進入我們的居民入口網站時，我們就會與這些居民保持持續溝通，試圖看看我們是否可以獲得這些早期通知或獲得一些確認他們是否有意與我們續約的資訊。所以我想說，目前的安排讓我們為進入這個租賃季節做好了充分的準備。我現在不認為我們會做出任何改變，通常來說——你已經拿到了入住帳單。

Right now, you're leaning into rate, you're leaning into the sequential build not only in volume but improving pricing. And the retention side of this business right now, I just don't see it changing much, which is we have such a strong percent of our residents renewing and good transparency into that and very consistent expectations around our achieved renewal increases.

現在，您傾向於利率，您傾向於不僅在數量上連續構建，而且還在改善價格。就目前這項業務的保留方面而言，我認為不會發生太大變化，也就是說，我們有相當高比例的居民續約，而且透明度很高，而且對於我們實現的續約成長有著非常一致的預期。

Okay. And maybe one for Bob just on the expense side. I know the insurance premium was a nice kind of tailwind certainly for the back half of the year. But maybe just talk about expenses, kind of what you're seeing. Any pressure on any line items or anything as it relates to tariffs or materials that could maybe upend the expense growth rate?

好的。也許對鮑伯來說只是在費用方面。我知道保險費對於下半年來說無疑是一種很好的順風。但也許只是談論費用，就像你所看到的一樣。與關稅或材料相關的任何項目或任何事物是否有壓力，可能會顛覆費用成長率？

Yes. Steve, it's Bob. Everything is proceeding pretty much in the aggregate the way we would have expected as reflected in not changing the guidance. As you mentioned, we have a little bit of puts and takes. So assurance was probably a benefit; real estate taxes, trending slightly ahead; Utilities, we're seeing a little bit more pressure from commodity prices offsetting that.

是的。史蒂夫，我是鮑伯。整體而言，一切進展都與我們預期的大致相同，這反映在指導方針沒有改變上。正如您所提到的，我們有一些得失。因此，保證可能是一種好處；房地產稅，趨勢略有上升；公用事業，我們看到大宗商品價格帶來的更大壓力抵消了這一點。

But we're not seeing anything from like an R&M line or anything in the OpEx side from a tariff perspective that is driving driving a variance in expenses. So so far, so good. Early in the year, but feel good about where we sit from an OpEx side.

但從關稅角度來看，我們並沒有看到 R&M 線路或 OpEx 方面的任何東西導致費用出現差異。到目前為止，一切都很好。今年雖然還只是年初，但從營運支出來看，我們對自己所處的位置感到滿意。

Jeff Spector, Bank of America.

美國銀行的傑夫·斯佩克特。

First, if you can expand on your comment on your expansion markets. You mentioned that the first half of the year -- you're expecting the first half of the year to play out as you reflected in your guidance. Can you talk a little bit more about expectations for, let's say, second half of the year or even '26 at this point?

首先，如果您可以詳細闡述您對擴張市場的評論。您提到了上半年—您預計上半年的情況將如您在指導中所反映的那樣。您能否再多談談對今年下半年甚至 26 年的期待？

Yes. Jeff, this is Michael. So I think relative to the expansion markets I would look at, we came into the year with an expectation that we were not going to see a lot of pricing power in the first half of the year, that we would see kind of a rent seasonality pickup heading into a peak leasing season allow us to stabilize occupancy, which ultimately could give us some opportunities in the back half of the year to start raising kind of some of the prices in the market.

是的。傑夫，這是麥可。因此，我認為，相對於我所關注的擴張市場，我們進入今年時預計，我們不會在上半年看到太多的定價權，在進入租賃旺季時，我們會看到租金季節性回升，這使我們能夠穩定入住率，這最終可能會給我們一些機會在下半年開始提高市場上的一些價格。

And so far, it's kind of playing out exactly like how we thought it would. I guess I would frame the expansion markets relative to 2026, which is we're in the process of building some amazing well-balanced portfolios in these markets that are younger in age, require less capital and are really positioned to deliver some strong revenue growth once we get past the absorption of some of the units.

到目前為止，事情的發展和我們想像的完全一樣。我想我會將擴張市場框架為 2026 年，也就是說，我們正在這些市場中建立一些令人驚嘆的均衡投資組合，這些市場成立時間較短，需要的資本較少，而且一旦我們吸收完部分單位，就真正有能力實現強勁的收入成長。

When some of these newer acquisitions fold into 2026, which is late in the fourth quarter of this year, I mean, our setup going in is going to be strong and should start to allow us to see some of the recapturing of some of the rate declines that we've been experienced. But right now, our expectations are still pretty muted for this first half of the year. And it really won't translate into improving revenue growth until probably get well into 2026.

當其中一些較新的收購在 2026 年（即今年第四季末）完成時，我們的設置將會很強大，並且應該開始讓我們看到我們經歷過的一些利率下降的恢復。但目前，我們對今年上半年的預期仍然相當低迷。並且可能要到 2026 年才會真正轉化為收入成長的提高。

Yes. No. Jeff, it's Alec. I would just say, got to distinguish among the markets. Some of them have this supply balances coming into play in places like Dallas, Atlanta and Denver.

是的。不。傑夫，我是亞歷克。我只想說，必須區分不同的市場。其中一些城市，如達拉斯、亞特蘭大和丹佛，已經實現了供應平衡。

But there are other markets that really haven't cauterized the bleeding from all the supply that they've been under. And those are places like Austin where we have 3 properties and maybe Charlotte, Phoenix, other markets like that. So there's a difference among the markets.

但其他市場確實尚未止住供應過剩造成的損失。這些地方包括奧斯汀，我們在那裡有 3 處房產，也許還有夏洛特、鳳凰城和其他類似的市場。因此，各個市場之間存在差異。

Great. That's helpful. And then my follow-up, if you could just talk a little bit more about your comments -- I guess, tie your comments on the green -- blinking green, the dashboards are good to excellent verse. You also discussed, of course, some of the the key signposts or things you would see if there were issues. And based on your experience, historical data, I mean, would you expect at this point or were you actually concerned at this point you could start to see some of those issues?

偉大的。這很有幫助。然後我的後續問題是，如果你能再多談談你的評論——我想，把你的評論與綠色聯繫起來——閃爍的綠色，儀表板很好，非常出色。當然，您也討論了一些關鍵的路標或出現問題時您會看到的事物。根據您的經驗和歷史數據，我的意思是，您是否預計此時會出現一些問題，或者您是否實際上擔心此時會出現一些問題？

Or it really comes down to jobs, as you talked about and the strength in the job market, and that's really what we should watch closely to determine the risks around delinquencies, move-outs, lease breaks, et cetera? And what type of historical delay do you see?

或者實際上歸結為就業問題，正如您談到的以及就業市場的強勁程度，而這正是我們應該密切關注的，以確定拖欠、搬出、中斷租約等方面的風險？您看到了什麼類型的歷史延遲？

So Jeff, it's Mark. I'm going to start and Michael will elaborate. First, we are a lagging not a leading indicator of changes in the economy. So people, if they lose their jobs, don't immediately give us the keys. So everything Michael has told you is absolutely accurate, but it doesn't necessarily tell you what's going to happen in the fourth quarter.

傑夫，我是馬克。我現在開始，麥可會詳細說明。首先，我們是經濟變化的落後指標，而不是領先指標。因此，如果人們失業了，他們不會立即把鑰匙交給我們。因此，麥可告訴你的一切都是絕對準確的，但它並不一定能告訴你第四季會發生什麼。

I would also add that our residents tend to be well educated and have many options. So you might remember in the layoffs that occurred in the tech sector in 2022 in Seattle and San Francisco where we have large portfolios, it certainly slowed rent growth. But it wasn't a great reversal because those people had decent severance and they found new jobs because they were highly skilled. So I'd tell you, job growth matters. You had a very tough recession you could have impacts and you would have impacts in our business and every other real estate business.

我還要補充一點，我們的居民往往受過良好的教育，而且有很多選擇。所以你可能還記得，2022 年西雅圖和舊金山的科技業發生了裁員，我們在那裡擁有大量投資組合，這無疑減緩了租金的成長。但這並不是一個巨大的逆轉，因為這些人獲得了不錯的遣散費，而且由於他們技術嫻熟，所以找到了新的工作。所以我想告訴你，就業成長很重要。經歷了非常嚴重的經濟衰退，這可能會對我們的業務以及其他所有房地產業務產生影響。

But I'd say right now, we're 96.9% occupied. We're in just such a strong position going into what we think is an opportunity year. And if that changes, I still think we're going to have a pretty good year just because of where we're starting and because our residents, frankly, are very employable. And no matter what happens in a place like D.C., if you're a skilled engineer, you're going to find another job in another sector. And probably from our perspective, there would be very little interruption in leasing activity, except maybe some dampening of growth.

但我想說，目前我們的佔用率為 96.9%。我們正處於如此有利的地位，即將進入我們認為的機會之年。如果情況發生變化，我仍然認為我們今年的業績會相當不錯，因為我們的起點很好，而且坦白說，我們的居民就業能力很強。無論在華盛頓特區這樣的地方發生什麼，如果你是技術熟練的工程師，你都會在其他領域找到另一份工作。從我們的角度來看，租賃活動幾乎不會受到任何干擾，除了成長可能會受到一定抑制。

I think Michael's had enough. So that's --

我認為邁克爾已經受夠了。這就是--

You just said it all.

你剛才說完了。

Yes.

是的。

Michael Goldsmith, UBS.

瑞銀集團的麥可‧戈德史密斯。

This is Ami on for Michael. We've seen some increasing rent control in Maryland, Washington State has discussed it. So I'm just wondering how you think that some of these recent rent-control measures could impact the portfolio?

這是 Ami 為 Michael 表演的。我們看到馬裡蘭州加強了租金管制，華盛頓州也對此進行了討論。所以我只是想知道您認為最近的一些租金管制措施會對投資組合產生什麼影響？

Yes. Thank you for that question. So just so everyone has the same information in front of them, Washington State is in the process of passing new rent control, very similar to what's in California now. So the rent cap on renewal is the lesser of 10% or 7% plus CPI. Vacancy decontrol does exist, and there's a 12-year new construction exemption, which is pretty modest.

是的。謝謝你的提問。為了讓每個人都能獲得相同的訊息，華盛頓州正在通過新的租金管制法，與加州現在的情況非常相似。因此，續約時的租金上限為 10% 或 7% 加上 CPI 中的較小者。空房解除管制確實存在，而且有 12 年的新建築豁免期，這個期限相當適中。

We're very disappointed to see this action by the state of Washington. If you want more housing and the governor said in his campaign, the new governor he did, you don't create price controls. This is a disincentive to capital investing in Seattle and in places around Seattle where more housing is needed. So definitively a negative for this market, which otherwise has taken a lot of steps forward on public safety and just engagement with the business community and making things a better quality of life for their citizens. So we are disappointed.

我們對華盛頓州的這項行動感到非常失望。如果您想要更多的住房，正如州長在競選中所說的那樣，新州長也這樣做了，那麼您就不應該實施價格管制。這對資本在西雅圖以及西雅圖週邊需要更多住房的地區進行投資是一種不利影響。因此，這對這個市場來說無疑是一個負面消息，因為這個市場在公共安全、與商界的合作以及改善公民生活品質方面已經取得了很大進展。所以我們很失望。

That said, we'd tell you, probably not much effect this year just given where we are in this market in terms of our ability to raise rents. But I think, again, disappointing and discouraging. For Maryland, I'd take it a step further. We have a small portfolio in Maryland. The rent control you referred to, I think, is mostly the Montgomery County rent control, which is suburban Washington, D.C.

話雖如此，我們會告訴你，考慮到我們在這個市場中提高租金的能力，今年可能不會有太大影響。但我認為這又令人失望和沮喪。對於馬裡蘭州，我會更進一步。我們在馬裡蘭州有一個小型投資組合。我認為，您提到的租金管制主要是蒙哥馬利縣的租金管制，也就是華盛頓特區的郊區。

We only have one property subject to those rules, but we are unlikely to invest further in that area in that state. It's -- the political climate has become quite poor from a landlord perspective. And you can see just across the Potomac in Virginia, where they're encouraging housing production, you see that housing production occurring. And in a state like Maryland, that's become increasingly hostile to housing providers. You see the amount of investment in those markets, whether it's Baltimore or Washington, D.C.

我們只有一處房產受這些規則約束，但我們不太可能在該州的該地區進一步投資。從房東的角度來看，政治氣氛已經變得相當糟糕。您可以看到，就在波托馬克河對岸的弗吉尼亞州，那裡正在鼓勵住房建設，並且正在建造住房。在馬裡蘭州這樣的州，住房供應商面臨的情況越來越不利。你可以看到這些市場的投資額，無論是巴爾的摩還是華盛頓特區。

metro decline. So I think it's unfortunate. I think it's the opposite of the kind of zoning decontrol and public-private partnership that will increase supply and solve the housing shortage. So we'll continue to advocate directly and through our associations against those kind of ill-conceived policies.

地鐵衰落。所以我認為這很不幸。我認為這與分區放開和公私合作以增加供應並解決住房短缺問題的做法相反。因此，我們將繼續直接或透過我們的協會來反對這類錯誤的政策。

And then you addressed some of the moving pieces on expense, but I was wondering if there were any moving pieces within that maintained same-store revenue guidance.

然後您談到了一些費用方面的變動因素，但我想知道其中是否有任何變動因素可以維持同店收入指引。

Can you -- sorry, Amy, can you repeat the last part? I couldn't quite hear you.

你能——對不起，艾米，你能重複最後一部分嗎？我沒聽清楚你說什麼。

If there were any offsetting pieces within your same-store revenue guidance, such as higher occupancy, lower rents, et cetera?

您的同店收入預期中是否有任何抵銷因素，例如更高的入住率、更低的租金等等？

Yes. There's many moving pieces, but at this point -- and that's why we provide a range. So I think we'll probably be able to give you a better sense on the next earnings call once we've gotten through the Q2 leasing piece.

是的。有很多活動的部分，但在這一點上——這就是我們提供範圍的原因。因此，我認為，一旦我們完成了第二季的租賃部分，我們就可以在下次收益電話會議上讓您更了解情況。

We certainly, as we said in the release, are running ahead of expectations on occupancy, which you saw in the first quarter, we were right on the number as it relates to blended rate. And everything else like -- and the other two big items are really other income and bad debt were running mostly in line.

正如我們在新聞稿中所說的那樣，我們的入住率確實超出了預期，正如您在第一季看到的那樣，我們對與混合房價相關的數字的判斷是正確的。其他所有東西——另外兩大項，其他收入和壞賬，基本上都符合預期。

But it's early. And Q2 and Q3 are really where you see most of the most of the action when it comes to the rev line.

但現在還早。當涉及轉速線時，Q2 和 Q3 確實是您看到最多動作的地方。

Rich Hightower, Barclays.

巴克萊銀行的里奇‧海托爾 (Rich Hightower)。

I appreciate the -- a bit of the commentary on D.C. in the prepared comments. And maybe just to drill down a little bit further on the D.C. market, maybe go through who's currently moving in, moving out? Would you say that the range of outcomes in D.C. at this point given what we know might be the widest as far as its potential impact on full year guidance? What are you -- what would you handicap in terms of the outcome later this year as severance for government employees runs out and you start to see some of those lagging effects that you've already sort of described? Just help us understand some of the moving parts there again.

我很欣賞準備好的評論中對華盛頓特區的一些評論。也許只是為了進一步深入了解華盛頓特區的市場，看看目前誰正在遷入，誰正在遷出？您是否認為，就我們目前所知，就其對全年指引的潛在影響而言，華盛頓目前的結果範圍可能是最廣泛的？當政府僱員的遣散費用完結並且您開始看到一些您已經描述過的滯後效應時，您會對今年稍後的結果造成什麼影響？只需幫助我們再次了解那裡的一些活動部件。

Yes. So Rich, this is Michael. I think when we're drilling in and looking at D.C., right, clearly, today, when you look at the new move-in activities from the demographics, the age, the income levels, there's really nothing that's changing. We capture the employer at time of move-in, and we don't keep up with that as they continue to renew with us. We've snapshot the portfolio.

是的。那麼，Rich，這是 Michael。我認為，當我們深入研究華盛頓特區時，很明顯，今天，當你從人口統計、年齡、收入水平來觀察新的遷入活動時，你會發現實際上沒有什麼變化。我們在雇主入住時就聯繫上了他們，但當他們繼續與我們續約時，我們並沒有跟上他們的步伐。我們已經對投資組合進行了快照。

We have a sense of kind of the exposure to direct kind of government workers. You also have kind of the consultant environment around there. And for us, that's what we're watching. We're trying to understand if you really see a pullback in contracts in some of those consultings and see job loss in those firms. That's what we're trying to pay attention to.

我們有一種直接接觸政府工作人員的感覺。您周圍也有顧問環境。對我們來說，這就是我們所關注的。我們試圖了解，是否真的看到一些諮詢合約的減少以及這些公司中的就業職位的流失。這就是我們試圖關注的。

The exposure is still pretty small, but it's really hard to quantify your direct exposure to all businesses kind of that support this market. But right now, I feel like we've got the right level of transparency in, and we're just not seeing anything like from the lease breaks, from the commentary to suggest that we should be concerned.

風險敞口仍然很小，但要量化你對支持這個市場的所有企業的直接風險敞口確實很困難。但現在，我覺得我們已經達到了適當的透明度，我們只是沒有看到任何像租約中斷或評論中提到的那樣值得我們擔心的事情。

But again, I think as Mark spoke, some of these folks had severances that go all the way into Q3, even in Q4. And we'll just see. If they're able to pick up new jobs, we probably won't see any impact from this.

但我認為，正如馬克所說的那樣，其中一些人的遣散費會持續到第三季度，甚至第四季。我們拭目以待。如果他們能夠找到新的工作，我們可能不會看到任何影響。

And Rich, it's Mark. I just want to quantify some of the numbers we see with the understanding that we only get an employer's name at the beginning of their leasing journey with us. So 10%, 11% of our residents in D.C. showed an employer of federal government entity. Some of that did include, for example, defense department people and stuff that may be less affected by these layoffs.

里奇，我是馬克。我只是想量化我們看到的一些數字，因為我們只有在雇主開始與我們租賃時才能獲得雇主的名字。因此，華盛頓特區 10% 到 11% 的居民表明他們的雇主是聯邦政府實體。其中包括國防部人員和工作人​​員，他們可能受裁員影響較小。

Then when we could sort of trace it to what we guessed were folks that were directly employed at consulting firms in this area, the number got closer to 15%. And as Michael said, there's some estimation in that process. D.C. is getting to be a much more diversified economy. I mean Amazon has their HQ2 there.

然後，當我們將其追溯到我們猜測的直接受僱於該地區諮詢公司的人員時，這個數字接近 15%。正如邁克爾所說，這個過程需要一些估計。華盛頓特區的經濟正在變得更加多元化。我的意思是亞馬遜的第二總部就在那裡。

They have significant operations there. Volkswagen's headquarters is there. I mean there's just a lot of other employers. So this is not a one-horse town like it used to be. And I guess we have a reasonable degree of confidence that we're going to get through this.

他們在那裡有重要的業務。大眾汽車的總部就在那裡。我的意思是還有很多其他雇主。所以這裡不再像以前那樣只有一匹馬。我想我們有相當大的信心能夠度過難關。

Okay. That's helpful color, guys. I guess one follow-up, just on the, I guess, extraordinarily low turnover rates in the portfolio. And obviously, in a quarter where new lease growth is negative and renewals are positive, you're obviously benefiting from the fact that people stay in place. Would you say that for whatever variety of reasons, there's sort of a new normal in that metric?

好的。夥計們，這是很有幫助的顏色。我想，接下來的問題就是，我認為投資組合的周轉率非常低。顯然，在新租賃成長為負而續約為正的季度中，您顯然會受益於人們留在原地。您是否認為，無論出於何種原因，該指標都出現了一種新常態？

And I know, Michael, you mentioned you're not really changing revenue management per se, but what would it mean if that metric ticked up? Could you identify reasons why that might happen or might not happen? How should we think about that in particular?

我知道，邁克爾，你提到你實際上並沒有改變收入管理本身，但如果這個指標上升，這意味著什麼？您能否指出這種情況可能發生或不發生的原因？我們具體該如何思考這個問題？

Yes. So Rich, Michael again. So I think relative to the turnover, we said this in our outlook for the year, right? We've been in a period of time where we've had really low resident turnover. We modeled for that to continue this year.

是的。太 Rich 了，又是 Michael。所以我認為相對於營業額，我們在年度展望中提到了這一點，對嗎？我們正處於居民流動率非常低的時期。我們為今年繼續這樣做做好了準備。

The fact that the first quarter came in even lower than kind of historical norms, it really isn't a testament, one, to what is happening in kind of the macro economy. When there's ambiguity, people tend to bunker down, right?

事實上，第一季的經濟成長速度甚至低於歷史平均水平，這實際上並不能證明宏觀經濟正在發生什麼。當存在模糊性時，人們往往會躲起來，對嗎？

And so retention could go up. But we've also put a lot of effort as a company into our centralized renewal process, a lot of effort into ensuring that we're delivering the right customer experience. So I think that is also fueling some of the retention numbers that we see kind of playing out. And in the near term, for the next several quarters, we just don't see any kind of change to that process.

因此保留率可能會上升。但作為一家公司，我們也在集中更新流程上投入了大量精力，確保提供正確的客戶體驗。所以我認為這也推動了我們所看到的一些保留數字。而在短期內，在接下來的幾個季度裡，我們不會看到這一進程有任何變化。

Alexander Goldfarb, Piper Sandler.

亞歷山大·戈德法布、派珀·桑德勒。

Two questions. First, Mark, I just want to go back to your comment that apartments are a lagging indicator, not a future. Just curious, given that you guys are leasing probably 30, 60, 90 days out and can see the pace of signed leases and a sense of -- certainly, the property managers have a sense of people's smiles or frowns on their faces. Is there a sense that apartments are forward-looking because of that leasing activity that you can see what's going on over the next, call it, 3, 4 months of activity?

兩個問題。首先，馬克，我只想回到你的評論，公寓是一個落後指標，而不是未來。只是好奇，考慮到你們的租賃期大概是 30、60、90 天，並且可以看到簽訂租約的速度和感覺——當然，物業經理可以感覺到人們臉上的笑容或皺眉。是否有人認為公寓具有前瞻性，因為租賃活動可以讓你預見未來 3、4 個月的活動？

Yes. I'm going to have Michael elaborate, too, on this. There's some truth to that, but I also say people could be uncomfortable about their jobs and their job situation, but they still need a place to live. So they're still going to go out there and renew. They're still going to go out there and talk to us about a new unit if they don't like their living situation.

是的。我也會讓邁克爾詳細說明這一點。這話有一定的道理，但我還要說，人們可能會對自己的工作和工作狀況感到不舒服，但他們仍然需要一個住的地方。所以他們仍會繼續前進並進行更新。如果他們不喜歡自己的居住環境，他們仍然會去那裡並與我們談論新單位。

People have things happen in their lives, whether it's divorces, marriages, coupling and uncoupling that causes demand in Michael's world that has nothing to do with the general economy. So I guess I'd say to you, it's not like we don't have some of what's going on, and we've shared that, I think, pretty fully with you just now. It's just that some of that can occur later in the process.

人們的生活中會發生各種事情，無論是離婚、結婚、結合或分手，這些都會在麥可的世界中引發與整體經濟無關的需求。所以我想對你們說，我們並不是不知道正在發生的事情，而且我認為我們剛才已經與你們充分分享了這些情況。只是其中一些可能會在流程的後期發生。

People don't immediately stop moving with their parents or stop their leasing process with us if they feel insecure about their job. That's different than, for example, the hospitality sector where people might just stop going on vacation.

如果人們對自己的工作感到不安全，他們不會立即停止與父母一起搬家或停止與我們一起的租賃流程。這與酒店業等行業不同，在酒店業中，人們可能不再去度假。

And that's just what they do and they can do that on a dime. They need to live somewhere, and they're going to probably live with us if they have even some reasonable degree of comfort that they'll get a job at some point. So I wouldn't say we aren't an indicator. I just don't think we're the same sort of indicator you're implying in your question, that it's like absolutely clear that we can see the inflection point.

這就是他們所做的，而且他們可以輕鬆地做到這一點。他們需要住在某個地方，如果他們有一定程度的安心感，相信將來能找到工作，他們很可能會和我們一起住。所以我不會說我們不是一個指標。我只是不認為我們是您在問題中暗示的那種指標，即我們可以非常清楚地看到拐點。

And then second question is following up on the rent control question. Just in California, Sacramento is debating sort of exempting urban residential from Cequa. It sounds pretty optimistic, but you guys are probably closer to it. So do you think that this is a good thing and that it will finally start to curtail the powers of Sequel? Or when you guys look at the legislation, you see ways that Cequa could work around to continue to inhibit development of residential in the urban areas?

第二個問題是有關租金管制問題的後續問題。就在加州，薩克拉門托正在討論將城市住宅從 Cequa 中豁免。這聽起來很樂觀，但你們可能更接近這個目標了。那麼，您是否認為這是一件好事並且最終會開始削弱 Sequel 的力量？或者當你們審視立法時，你們發現 Cequa 可以採取一些方法來繼續抑制城市地區的住宅開發？

Yes. I think it's a great question and observation. Loved your piece on that. We're hopeful. I mean it's got a ways to go yet.

是的。我認為這是一個很好的問題和觀察。我很喜歡你對此的看法。我們充滿希望。我的意思是它還有很長的路要走。

And there is opposition to it. But I think what you're seeing is policymakers, and these are all Democratic policymakers, looking at and saying, how can I make it easier to build more units? And Sequa is an impediment to that. So let's move that out of the way. I think that's the message. And they're doing that pretty consistently.

但也有反對者。但我認為你看到的是政策制定者，這些都是民主黨政策制定者，他們在考慮並說，我怎麼能更容易地建造更多的單位？而 Sequa 正是這目標的障礙。所以讓我們把它移開。我想這就是訊息。他們一直在做這件事。

The National Multi Housing Conference here in Chicago this week and talked to a number of people there. And in California, they really are working to comply with the state-level rules about permitting more units. And we see that even in places like Orange County, where there's been a lot of opposition, there's a few holdouts. But my money is on the state making these localities create more units. So I think, Alex, you're exactly right that it's a positive and it's good.

本週，我們在芝加哥舉行了全國多戶住宅會議，並與那裡的許多人進行了交談。在加州，他們確實在努力遵守有關允許更多單位的州級規則。我們看到，即使在橘郡這樣反對聲音很大的地方，也有少數人堅持不行動。但我的錢是寄託在州政府讓這些地方建立更多的單位。所以我認為，亞歷克斯，你說得完全正確，這是一件正面的事情，是一件好事。

Whether this bill gets through or not in its current form, I'd say probably is a little 50-50. But it's a good thing. And I think policymakers knowing they need to make it easier to build in California, boy, you had a sea change from 5 or 10 years ago, right?

我認為，無論該法案以目前的形式能否獲得通過，可能性都是 50%。但這是一件好事。我認為政策制定者知道他們需要讓在加州的建設變得更容易，小伙子，這與 5 年或 10 年前相比發生了翻天覆地的變化，對吧？

Nick Yulico, Scotiabank.

加拿大豐業銀行的 Nick Yulico。

First question is just in terms of -- you talked about potentially starting some new developments. Can you just give us a sense for how construction costs might be getting impacted now from tariffs? Any perspective just on a real-time basis?

第一個問題只是關於——您談到了可能開始一些新的發展。您能否告訴我們現在關稅會對建築成本產生什麼樣的影響？有任何基於即時的觀點嗎？

Yes. So Nick, it's Alec. It's interesting because absent the tariffs, it felt like costs were coming down in a lot of markets, maybe 0% to 5%, depending on the market and depending on how overheated it got. But then the tariffs have obviously is an element of uncertainty that really depends on how a number of variables, obviously, which items get taxed and what the tariff is and the makeup for your project.

是的。尼克，我是亞歷克。有趣的是，由於沒有關稅，感覺很多市場的成本都在下降，可能是 0% 到 5%，這取決於市場以及市場過熱的程度。但關稅顯然存在不確定因素，這實際上取決於許多變量，顯然，哪些商品需要徵稅、關稅是多少以及項目的組成。

Having said all that, the developers that I talked to and that we talk to as we look at joint venture opportunities are also seeing that potential increase offset by contractors getting really hungry. They see the pipeline dwindling, and so they're accepting less of a margin. And so that might balance off, so the costs won't go up that much.

話雖如此，在尋找合資機會時，我和我們交談過的開發商也發現，潛在的成長被承包商的強烈需求所抵消。他們發現管道正在減少，因此他們接受的利潤也減少了。這樣就可以達到平衡，所以成本不會上升那麼多。

Having said all that, even with no change in cost, it's really hard to make deals underwrite right now. So it really doesn't change the supply dynamic that much, I guess, is my net conclusion, and that's the supply will continue to decline during the course of the year.

話雖如此，即使成本沒有變化，現在也很難達成承銷交易。因此，我猜這實際上並沒有對供應動態產生太大的改變，這是我的最終結論，那就是供應量將在一年內繼續下降。

Okay. And then second question is just going back to D.C. I know you gave a bunch of commentary, which was helpful on the exposure there. I guess what I'm wondering is if you've done sort of an extra layer of analysis kind of similar to what you did at the Investor Day when you looked at your exposure to certain job centers versus the national average. You used a location quotient.

好的。第二個問題是回到華盛頓特區。我知道您發表了許多評論，這對那裡的曝光很有幫助。我想知道的是，您是否做過某種額外的分析，類似於您在投資者日所做的分析，當時您查看了自己在某些就業中心的曝光度與全國平均水平的對比情況。您使用了位置商。

I guess I'm wondering if you've done anything similar to that in terms of D.C., meaning that you have more or less exposure to these types of jobs that could be potentially cut. And whether there's also perhaps a locational issue on your submarkets there, just kind of a gut feel on whether certain submarkets might be impacted more and whether you even have product in that market in D.C.

我想知道您是否在華盛頓特區做過類似的事情，這意味著您或多或少接觸過這些可能被削減的工作。以及您所在的子市場是否也存在地理位置問題，只是直覺地判斷某些子市場是否會受到更大的影響，以及您是否在華盛頓特區的該市場有產品。

Yes. Nick, it's Mark. Thanks for that question. We're levered about the same to government jobs as the GDP of that area. So we think 11%, 12% is federal government.

是的。尼克，我是馬克。謝謝你的提問。我們對政府工作的槓桿作用與該地區的 GDP 槓桿作用大致相同。所以我們認為 11%、12% 是聯邦政府。

And then, of course, there's these harder to measure other consultants and the like in D.C. So we think our numbers basically follow what the market has in terms of employment and economic power drivers. We've looked at our assets one by one in this market. And it's sort of what you would expect. I mean we have some assets very close to the Pentagon, for example, that have pretty high federal government employee usage.

當然，華盛頓的其他顧問等的業績很難衡量。因此，我們認為我們的數據基本上遵循了市場在就業和經濟動力驅動方面的狀況。我們已經在這個市場上逐一審視了我們的資產。這正是您所期望的。我的意思是，我們有一些非常靠近五角大樓的資產，聯邦政府員工的使用率相當高。

I wonder if those jobs are going anywhere. So -- but there wasn't anything we looked at that we found terribly surprising. Some of the Maryland properties, and again, we have a pretty small portfolio there that are near NIH, also had a fair bit of exposure. I wonder if those scientists aren't employable elsewhere. But where exactly they go, I'm not sure.

我不知道這些工作是否會消失。所以——但是我們所看到的並沒有讓我們發現任何非常令人驚訝的事情。我們在馬裡蘭州的一些房產，靠近 NIH，我們在那裡的投資組合規模很小，但也獲得了相當多的曝光。我不知道這些科學家是否在其他地方找不到工作。但他們到底去了哪裡，我不確定。

So my guess is that is more NIH employment than federal defense spending. So it's sort of a mixed bag. And I wouldn't say there's anything we saw that made us particularly anxious like we're levered to one department or another. It's pretty broad-based portfolio.

所以我猜 NIH 的就業人數比聯邦國防開支還多。所以它有點像混合包。我不會說我們看到的任何事情讓我們特別焦慮，就像我們被分配到某個部門一樣。這是一個相當廣泛的投資組合。

Haendel St. Juste, Mizuho.

亨德爾聖朱斯特，瑞穗。

So first question is on San Francisco. I think I heard you mention earlier, Mark, that that you were 97% occupied there base rents going up, but that concessions are still prevalent. So maybe can you add some color or clarify that? Seems a bit of a bizarre situation? And then maybe put the numbers around the level of concessions you're seeing in San Francisco market today versus a year -- a quarter or a year ago.

第一個問題是關於舊金山的。馬克，我想我之前聽過你提到過，你們的入住率為 97%，基本租金上漲了，但優惠仍然很普遍。那麼也許您可以添加一些顏色或澄清這一點？看起來有點奇怪的狀況？然後，也許可以將今天舊金山市場的優惠水平與一年前、一個季度或一年前的優惠水平進行比較。

Haendel, this is Michael. So yes, San Francisco is actually over 97% occupied. Net effective pricing is up 6%-plus since the beginning of the year there. And what we're seeing, and I think I said this in my prepared remarks, concessions are more common right now still in that downtown area. They are pulling back.

亨德爾，這是麥可。所以，是的，舊金山的入住率實際上已超過 97%。自今年年初以來，淨有效定價已上漲 6% 以上。我們看到的是，我想我在準備好的演講中也說過，目前在市中心地區，優惠仍然更為普遍。他們正在撤退。

So just to give you some frame of reference, at the beginning of the year, we were probably like 45% of our applications receiving a month. Today, we're probably closer to like 1/3 of our applications receiving two weeks. But we're seeing the properties that we're competing against are still offering concessions in the marketplace, and it's still an expectation of prospects coming around. How long those hold on in the marketplace? I don't know.

因此，只給您一些參考，在年初，我們大概有 45％ 的申請在一個月內收到。如今，我們大概有三分之一的申請在兩週內就收到了回覆。但我們看到，我們的競爭對手仍在市場上提供優惠，我們仍然期待潛在客戶的到來。這些在市場上能維持多久？我不知道。

But at this point, what we're more interested in is just where is that net effective price. So if base rents are moving up, but persistent concessions stay at two weeks, that's okay, right? So we're kind of indifferent right now. We're watching the pricing curve. We're watching the demand, but we feel really well positioned, right, with occupancy over 97% and the sequential build in net effective pricing occurring each and every week.

但此時，我們更感興趣的是淨有效價格在哪裡。因此，如果基本租金上漲，但持續優惠仍保持在兩週，那沒問題，對嗎？所以我們現在有點無動於衷。我們正在關注價格曲線。我們正在關注需求，但我們感覺自己處於非常有利的位置，入住率超過 97%，每週的淨有效價格都在連續上漲。

And whether or not concessions continue to pull back from this point forward through the leasing season, I think it's still uncertain for us, but we're almost indifferent.

從現在開始到整個租賃季節，優惠政策是否會繼續減少，我認為這對我們來說仍然不確定，但我們幾乎無所謂。

Got it. Got it. Appreciate that color. Maybe one on Boston. We haven't talked much about Boston. It's an important market for you guys. Are you guys seeing a little bit of a slowing there. I'm wondering if it's maybe just tough comps or anything in particular that perhaps can explain some of that.

知道了。知道了。欣賞那種顏色。也許有一個在波士頓。我們沒有談論太多關於波士頓的事情。這對你們來說是一個重要的市場。你們是否看到那裡有一點點放緩？我想知道這是否只是艱難的比賽或任何特定的事情也許可以解釋其中的一些情況。

Yes. Haendel, this is Michael again. So yes, I think Boston for us, I mean, it felt a little bit weaker in the first quarter from, I would say, the new lease change or just the overall pricing on new leases. It is a very seasonal market. So the new lease change was more negative, but the volume of transactions was really low.

是的。韓德爾，我又是麥可。是的，我認為對我們來說，波士頓在第一季感覺有點弱，我想說，這是由於新的租約變更或新租約的整體定價。這是一個季節性很強的市場。因此，新的租賃變化更為負面，但交易量確實很低。

Looking at our stats for the last kind of four to five weeks, I will tell you, it looks pretty stable to us. We have momentum now heading into the leasing season. We have pretty stable occupancy there. I think, for us, we've talked a lot about D.C. and some of the headline risk.

查看過去四到五週的統計數據，我可以告訴你，它看起來相當穩定。我們現在正進入租賃季節，勢頭強勁。我們那裡的入住率相當穩定。我認為，對我們來說，我們已經討論了很多關於華盛頓特區和一些頭條風險的問題。

We're watching the headline risks in Boston, but some of that pullback in the funding -- research funding on top of kind of the life science and bio slowdown is what we're trying to understand the impact on overall demand. So far, it feels okay. Like I said, looking at April, looking at kind of the forward for May. But I do think we have a little bit of that forward risk there on the overall demand in that market. But nothing that over right now is telling us that we need to revise kind of guidance for the full year of the market.

我們正在關注波士頓的主要風險，但我們正在試圖了解資金的減少——生命科學和生物技術放緩以及研究資金的減少對整體需求的影響。到目前為止，感覺還不錯。就像我說的，回顧四月，展望五月。但我確實認為，對於該市場的整體需求，我們存在一些遠期風險。但目前沒有任何跡象顯示我們需要修改全年市場指引。

Adam Kramer, Morgan Stanley.

摩根士丹利的亞當·克萊默。

Just wanted to ask about Washington, D.C. again. I know it's been talked about it a few times here. But just maybe if you could quantify on the demand side. I know this return-to-office theme has come up a bunch.

只是想再次詢問華盛頓特區的問題。我知道這裡已經討論過幾次了。但也許你可以量化需求方面的情況。我知道這個重返辦公室的主題已經出現過很多次了。

Maybe just quantify, again, to the extent that you can, I know everyone's crystal ball is a little bit cloudy at this point, but just where we are in that return-to-office cycle. Do you think it's kind of still early days. Summit has been to come back to office? Or are we maybe 75, 80, 85 the way through? People have already been called back and maybe we're in just the later stages of that demand?

也許只是盡可能地量化，我知道現在每個人的水晶球都有點模糊，但我們正處於重返辦公室的周期中。您認為現在還為時過早嗎？薩米特已經回任了嗎？或者我們可能已經走過 75、80、85 條道路了？人們已經被召回，也許我們正處於這需求的後期階段？

Yes, it's Mark. That's -- we don't have any particular insight to share with you. We have a few folks in other markets on the West Coast, for example, at our federal workers and said they wanted to take advantage of our coast-to-coast transfer program and move from a West Coast market to D.C. because now they're required to be in the office. But that is really a handful of people.

是的，是馬克。那是——我們沒有任何特別的見解可以與您分享。例如，我們在西海岸其他市場有一些聯邦工作人員，他們說，他們希望利用我們的跨海岸調動計劃，從西海岸市場轉移到華盛頓特區，因為現在他們必須在辦公室工作。但那確實是少數人。

It isn't a deluge of people. So I don't have any sense of the RTO cycle. A bunch of us have been in D.C. lately. It did feel more activated on The Street than it has in a while. So that's probably all I'd have to share there for you.

這並不是人潮湧動。所以我對 RTO 週期沒有任何概念。我們一群人最近都在華盛頓。與之前相比，華爾街確實更加活躍。這可能就是我要與你們分享的全部內容了。

I appreciate that, Mark. And then maybe just on developments. I think you mentioned a little bit earlier, kind of a greater possibility of starting development versus 90 days ago. Just wondering what that's a function of. I would have thought with tariffs and immigration impacts, it would be harder across the board to kind of start developments. Maybe just what kind of -- what are the kind of drivers of that statement you made earlier? And what are you guys seeing real time in the development side?

我很感激，馬克。然後也許只是關於事態發展。我想您之前提到過，與 90 天前相比，開始開發的可能性更大。只是想知道那是什麼功能。我原本以為，由於關稅和移民的影響，全面啟動發展將會變得更加困難。也許只是什麼樣的——您之前所說的那句話的驅動因素是什麼？你們在開發方面即時看到了什麼？

Yes. I agree with you. There's more uncertainty. This hurdle rate, this sort of 6% bogey we've put out there for current rent yield, you got to feel really comfortable about that. I think with appropriate contingencies, which is what the team is underwriting, you can get yourself a little bit more comfortable.

是的。我同意你的看法。存在更多不確定性。對於我們為目前租金收益率設定的這個最低收益率（6%），您一定對此感到非常放心。我認為，有了適當的應急措施（團隊正在承保），你可以讓自己更安心一些。

We do look at that relative to acquisitions and with some acquisition cap rates being lower than 5, it starts to look more appealing. And developing certainly when no one else can or very few can and delivering two or three years out in some of these markets we're trying to grow in, that may be a pretty good play. So that's the way we're thinking about it, but it is not going to be a very significant move. It will be three assets or something or two or something like that, that we really think we can deliver at a 6 or better yield at a cost that makes sense in a submarket that we like and that complements our acquisition efforts.

我們確實將其與收購進行比較，並且由於一些收購的資本化率低於 5，它開始變得更具吸引力。當沒有其他人能夠或很少有人能夠做到時，在我們試圖發展的某些市場中，提前兩三年實現發展，這可能是一個相當不錯的舉措。這就是我們的想法，但這不會是一個非常重大的舉措。這將是三項資產或兩項資產或類似資產，我們確實認為我們可以在我們喜歡的子市場中以合理的成本實現 6% 或更高的收益率，並補充我們的收購努力。

Julien Blouin, Goldman Sachs.

高盛的朱利安布魯因 (Julien Blouin)。

Michael, you were speaking earlier about on the renewal side, things trending into April. I guess, can we have the same discussion on the new lease side? I know we generally try to stay away from monthly disclosures. But just given the amount of uncertainty out there, is there any sort of trends or data points you can give us into April?

邁克爾，你之前談到續約方面，事情發展到四月份的趨勢。我想，我們可以在新租賃方面進行同樣的討論嗎？我知道我們一般會盡量避免每月揭露資訊。但考慮到存在的不確定性，您能否提供四月份的任何趨勢或數據點？

Julien, it's Michael. Yes, I mean, I think you kind of hit it, which is we're going to stay away giving any kind of monthly stats. I think all of these things are really best viewed over longer periods of times as trends. I think you could pick up from my commentary, you can pick up from the guidance that we put out there on the blend for the second quarter, you can see the sequential improvement that we're putting out there with the blends.

朱利安，我是麥可。是的，我的意思是，我認為你已經明白了，我們將避免提供任何類型的月度統計數據。我認為所有這些事情最好都從較長的一段時間來觀察，將其視為趨勢。我想您可以從我的評論中了解到，您可以從我們針對第二季度混合物發布的指導中了解到，您可以看到我們在混合物方面取得的連續改進。

And you could see my stability in renewal performance, which tells you that April obviously has the trajectory in line with what you would expect, which is seasonal sequential improvement heading into the peak leasing season.

您可以看到我的續約表現很穩定，這說明 4 月的走勢顯然符合您的預期，即在進入租賃旺季時出現季節性連續改善。

And I'll be honest, even looking past April into May and June, there's nothing that we see yet to suggest that we're not going to continue to see that sequential build, which will manifest itself in the new lease change sequentially building as well.

老實說，即使回顧四月、五月和六月，我們也沒有看到任何跡象表明我們不會繼續看到這種連續建設，這也將體現在新租賃變更的連續建設中。

John Kim, BMO Capital Markets.

蒙特利爾銀行資本市場 (BMO Capital Markets) 的 John Kim。

In Boston, that was a market where it looks like you built up some occupancy during the quarter. And I was wondering if that contributed to the new lease rates kind of softening and if there are any other markets where you're going to be a little bit more defensive and build up occupancy as you head towards the second and third quarter.

在波士頓，這是一個看起來在本季建立了一些入住率的市場。我想知道這是否導致了新租賃利率的下降，以及在進入第二季和第三季時，是否還有其他市場需要採取更具防禦性的措施並提高入住率。

Yes. John, it's Michael. So I think Boston, we clearly had a lean in even in the fourth quarter. Some of these more seasonally pronounced markets will lean into occupancy in the shoulder period. So that could have played a little bit into the softness on the new lease change.

是的。約翰，我是麥可。所以我認為波士頓隊甚至在第四節就明顯佔優勢。一些季節性特徵更為明顯的市場將傾向於在平季期間入住。因此，這可能對新租約變更的疲軟程度有一定影響。

But like I said, we're coming into kind of the leasing season now and getting a little bit of that sequential build. In terms of other markets right now on the defense, I think, look, if the expansion markets were still in kind of a defensive position, the occupancies today are 95.5% if they hold and are stable.

但就像我說的，我們現在正進入租賃季節，並且正在進行一些連續的建設。就目前處於防禦狀態的其他市場而言，我認為，如果擴張市場仍然處於防禦狀態，如果保持穩定，今天的入住率將達到 95.5%。

Heading into the leasing season, that should manifest itself into what I thought would happen in the second half of the year, which maybe you start to see a little bit inching of the concession use or a little bit inching up on price. There's really not any other markets. I mean we got pockets that were up against supply in L.A., Hollywood, Mid-Wilshire, things like that, that I would say anywhere we're up against direct competitive supply.

進入租賃季節，這應該會反映我認為會在下半年發生的情況，也許你會開始看到優惠使用略有減少，或者價格略有上漲。確實沒有其他市場。我的意思是，我們在洛杉磯、好萊塢、威爾希爾中部等地都有供應競爭，我想說，在任何地方，我們都面臨著直接競爭供應的競爭。

You're going to see us lean in a little bit more on to the occupancy, take our foot off the gas a little bit on the rate regardless of what season I'm dealing with.

無論處於哪個季節，您都會看到我們更加重視入住率，稍微放鬆一下房價。

Okay. And on D.C., you've done a great job answering all the questions on the call today about it, and it's been very resilient. One of the metrics that you provided at Investor Day were 12 lease breaks that you had in the market, partially offset by incoming demand from the West Coast. I was wondering if that number had moved up meaningfully since late February.

好的。關於華盛頓特區，你們在今天的電話會議上出色地回答了所有相關問題，而且表現得非常有韌性。您在投資者日提供的指標之一是，您在市場上有 12 個租約中止，但部分被來自西海岸的需求所抵消。我想知道自二月底以來這個數字是否有所上升。

No -- I mean, yes, it's higher. But again, every single month, we would have lease breaks due to job loss. So I think the tracker, right, the last I looked was like 28 total over the course of like more than two months. So it's just -- it's nothing at the end of the day when you just think about lease breaks that occur in the marketplace. We're just not seeing anything to signal that this is anything other than what you would normally experience.

不——我的意思是，是的，它更高。但同樣，每個月我們都會因為失業而終止租約。所以我認為追蹤器，對的，我上次查看的數據顯示，在兩個多月的時間裡總共有 28 個。所以，當你考慮市場上發生的租約中斷時，你會發現這根本不算什麼。我們只是沒有看到任何跡象表明這與你通常會經歷的情況不同。

So we're going to just as a note -- just one second, Jas. We're going to take one more question just to be respectful of a start time for our peer.

因此，我們只需稍等片刻，Jas。為了尊重同行的開始時間，我們將再回答一個問題。

Brad Heffern, RBC Capital Markets.

加拿大皇家銀行資本市場 (RBC Capital Markets) 的布拉德‧赫弗恩 (Brad Heffern)。

Can you just give your long-term perspective on L.A.? You've obviously been trading out of it some, and it's had more than its fair share of issues over the past few years. But there have been some articles floating around about the low number of shoot days, other cities taking a larger share of the movie and TV business. So does that give you any incremental concern?

能否談談對洛杉磯的長期看法？顯然，您已經對其進行了一些交易，而且過去幾年中它已經出現了相當多的問題。但有一些文章稱拍攝天數較少，其他城市佔據了電影和電視業務的更大份額。那麼這是否為您帶來了一些額外的擔憂？

Yes. That's a perceptive comment. And I think Michael alluded to that in his remarks. I do think we see Los Angeles as weaker than we would have hoped and the entertainment industry and the strikes last year. I think a lot of people sort of figured out, content creators, where else to go to create content that might be cheaper.

是的。這是一個敏銳的評論。我認為邁克爾在他的演講中提到了這一點。我確實認為洛杉磯的情況比我們想像的要弱，娛樂業和去年的罷工也都是如此。我想很多人都已經知道，內容創作者還可以去哪裡以更便宜的價格創作內容。

And I think that is a bit of a drag in that area. I think the film credits are helpful. I also think maybe compared to the other West Coast markets, they just haven't done as good a job creating quality-of-life improvements and attractiveness to business. I think Los Angeles has a longer way to go than what you see San Francisco and Seattle doing.

我認為這對該地區來說是一個拖累。我認為電影片尾字幕很有幫助。我還認為，與其他西海岸市場相比，他們在改善生活品質和吸引企業方面做得還不夠好。我認為洛杉磯比舊金山和西雅圖還有更長的路要走。

So I do think L.A. is an area of focus. In terms of our capital allocation, I would expect to own less in that market. I do think it's a big market. Prop 13 is a huge benefit to our returns in that market. I do think it's a pretty diversified employer base, but it is lagging lately.

所以我確實認為洛杉磯是一個重點地區。就我們的資本配置而言，我預期在該市場持有的資產會較少。我確實認為這是一個很大的市場。第 13 號提案對我們在該市場的回報有巨大的好處。我確實認為這是一個相當多元化的雇主基礎，但最近卻落後了。

And I do think a little of that is public policymaking that needs to improve a great deal. Okay. So we will be available later this afternoon for any follow-up questions. I want to thank everyone for your interest in Equity Residential today, and have a good day. Thank you.

我確實認為公共政策制定有一點需要大幅改進。好的。因此，我們將在今天下午晚些時候回答任何後續問題。我想感謝大家今天對 Equity Residential 的關注，祝大家有個愉快的一天。謝謝。

Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, that will conclude today's call. We thank you for your participation. You may disconnect at this time

謝謝。女士們、先生們，今天的電話會議到此結束。我們感謝您的參與。現在您可以斷開連接