住宅地產 (EQR) 2024 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good day, and welcome to the Equity Residential third-quarter 2024 earnings conference call and Webcast. Today's conference is being recorded. At this time, I'd like to turn the conference over to Marty McKenna. Please go ahead, sir.

美好的一天，歡迎參加 Equity Residential 2024 年第三季財報電話會議和網路廣播。今天的會議正在錄製中。這次，我想把會議交給馬蒂·麥肯納。請繼續，先生。

Good morning, and thanks for joining us to discuss Equity Residential's Third Quarter 2024 Results. Our featured speakers today are Mark Parrell, our President and CEO; Alex Brackenridge, our Chief Investment Officer; and Michael Manelis, Chief Operating Officer. Bob Garechana, our CFO, is here with us as well for the Q&A. Our earnings release and management presentation are posted in the Investors section of equityapartments.com.

早安，感謝您與我們討論 Equity Residential 2024 年第三季業績。今天我們的演講嘉賓是我們的總裁兼執行長馬克‧帕雷爾 (Mark Parrell)； Alex Brackenridge，我們的首席投資長；和首席營運長邁克爾·馬內利斯 (Michael Manelis)。我們的財務長 Bob Garechana 也出席了我們的問答活動。我們的收益發布和管理層介紹發佈在equityapartments.com 的投資者部分。

Please be advised that certain matters discussed during this conference call may constitute forward-looking statements within the meaning of the federal securities laws. These forward-looking statements are subject to certain economic risks and uncertainties. The company assumes no obligation to update or supplement these statements that become untrue because of subsequent events.

請注意，本次電話會議中討論的某些事項可能構成聯邦證券法含義內的前瞻性陳述。這些前瞻性陳述受到某些經濟風險和不確定性的影響。本公司不承擔更新或補充因後續事件而變得不真實的這些陳述的義務。

Now I will turn the call over to Mark Parrell.

現在我將把電話轉給馬克·帕雷爾。

Thank you, Marty. Good morning and thank you all for joining us today to discuss our third quarter 2024 results and outlook for the year. I will start us off, then Alex Brackenridge, our Chief Investment Officer, will discuss our recent acquisition of Blackstone and the overall transaction market. And then Michael Manelis, our Chief Operating Officer, will speak to our operating performance, then we'll go ahead and take your questions.

謝謝你，馬蒂。早安，感謝大家今天加入我們討論我們的 2024 年第三季業績和全年展望。首先，我們的首席投資長 Alex Brackenridge 將討論我們最近對 Blackstone 的收購以及整個交易市場。然後我們的營運長 Michael Manelis 將介紹我們的營運業績，然後我們將繼續回答您的問題。

We posted solid performance in the third quarter, driven by continued good demand and little competitive new supply in our established markets, which constitute 90% of our portfolio. Big picture, we continue to see a stable environment and a healthy consumer. Unemployment is low and wage growth is steady, both of which do well for our customers.

在我們的成熟市場（占我們投資組合的 90%）持續良好的需求和幾乎沒有競爭力的新供應的推動下，我們在第三季度取得了穩健的業績。總體而言，我們繼續看到穩定的環境和健康的消費者。失業率較低，薪資成長穩定，對我們的客戶來說都是有利的。

In a moment, Michael will speak to the various puts and takes we saw in our operations during the quarter. As is usually the case, we saw some items like occupancy and retention exceed our expectations, while others like blended rate came in lower in terms of our expectations.

稍後，邁克爾將談論我們在本季度的運營中看到的各種看跌期權和賣出期權。與通常的情況一樣，我們看到入住率和保留率等一些項目超出了我們的預期，而混合率等其他項目則低於我們的預期。

As you can see on page 5 of the presentation that we posted to our website last night, this type of variability in pricing is not uncommon. In fact, pricing so far in the fourth quarter has normalized consistent with seasonal patterns and with our expectations.

正如您在我們昨晚發佈到網站的簡報的第 5 頁上看到的，這種類型的定價變化並不罕見。事實上，第四季迄今的定價已經正常化，符合季節性模式和我們的預期。

In sum, we remain on track with our same-store revenue guidance, and we expect to end the year in a good position for 2025.

總而言之，我們仍遵循同店收入指引，預計 2025 年底將維持良好狀態。

On the expense side, the machine continues to churn out to terrific results with same-store expense growth of 3.2% for the quarter and our expectation for full year same-store events growth of 3%. I want to thank the team across our organization for the continued focus on innovation, cost control and our customer.

在費用方面，這台機器持續產出優異的業績，本季同店費用成長 3.2%，我們預計全年同店活動成長 3%。我要感謝我們整個組織的團隊對創新、成本控制和客戶的持續關注。

Turning to 2025, while there remains a considerable amount of economic and geopolitical uncertainty, that could impact our business and the economy generally, we like our setup. We are too early to give 2025 guidance at this point, but we have given you some insight into our preliminary thinking on some of the inputs for 2025 same-store revenue on pages 7 through 9 of the management presentation.

展望 2025 年，雖然仍然存在相當大的經濟和地緣政治不確定性，這可能會影響我們的業務和整體經濟，但我們喜歡我們的設置。目前我們給出 2025 年指導還為時過早，但我們已在管理層簡報的第 7 頁至第 9 頁上向您介紹了我們對 2025 年同店收入的一些輸入的初步想法。

In sum, we think 2025 should produce solid same-store revenue results for Equity Residential. We steady demand from a well-employed affluent renter base, a favorable supply picker and the 90% of our NOI in the less supply established markets and continuing cost and lifestyle preferences favoring rental housing.

總而言之，我們認為 Equity Residential 到 2025 年應該會產生穩健的同店收入結果。我們穩定的需求來自於就業良好的富裕租戶基礎、有利的供應選擇者以及我們 90% 的 NOI 來自供應較少的成熟市場，以及有利於租賃住房的持續成本和生活方式偏好。

In terms of our expansion markets, we expect that a recovery in same-store revenue will not occur until 2026, given continuing high supply levels, but we do look to see some improvement in currently highly negative new lease rates and to see lower concessions during next year's leasing season.

就我們的市場擴張而言，鑑於供應水平持續較高，我們預計同店收入要到2026 年才會復甦，但我們確實希望看到目前嚴重負值的新租賃率有所改善，並在2026 年期間看到更低的優惠。

Now switching over to capital allocation. We accelerated our acquisitions of newer, well-located assets in our expansion markets of Atlanta, Dallas and Denver in the third quarter. We are excited to acquire these properties at a basis that we see as highly favorable and add properties with strong cash flow growth prospects as supply levels declined substantially over the next few years.

現在轉向資本配置。第三季度，我們在亞特蘭大、達拉斯和丹佛等擴張市場加快了對位置優越的新資產的收購。我們很高興能夠以我們認為非常有利的價格收購這些房產，並在未來幾年供應水平大幅下降的情況下增加具有強勁現金流增長前景的房產。

The entire equity team also looks forward to demonstrating our core competencies of smartly acquiring and efficiently integrating new acquisitions. We now have approximately 10% of our net operating income in our expansion markets assuming stabilization of our assets under development. In a moment, Alex will give you more detail on our transaction activity.

整個股權團隊也期待展現我們明智收購和高效整合新收購的核心能力。假設我們正在開發的資產穩定，我們現在大約有 10% 的營業淨收入來自我們的擴張市場。稍後，亞歷克斯將為您提供有關我們交易活動的更多詳細資訊。

We are funding our expected $1.6 billion in acquisitions this year, with a mix of fixed rate debt, dispositions and the use of commercial paper supported by our uncured line of credit. In a moment, Alex will give you detail on the disposition activity funding these acquisitions.

我們預計今年將進行 16 億美元的收購，其中包括固定利率債務、處置以及使用由我們的未固化信用額度支持的商業票據。稍後，亞歷克斯將向您詳細介紹為這些收購提供資金的處置活動。

The one source I did want to highlight is the $600 million in fixed rate debt we raised in September. These 10-year notes were issued at a coupon of 4.65%, which is the lowest 10-year coupon issued in the REIT space since 2022, and would be hard to replicate today. So a nice job by Bob and his team on this.

我確實想強調的一個來源是我們在 9 月籌集的 6 億美元固定利率債務。這些 10 年期票據的發行利率為 4.65%，這是自 2022 年以來 REIT 領域發行的最低 10 年期票據，如今很難複製。鮑勃和他的團隊在這方面做得很好。

Before I close, a quick note on where these acquisitions fit into our overall capital allocation strategy. Our goal remains to own an apartment portfolio that has the highest long-term total return in the sector with a focus on cash flow growth and taking into account risk and with the least amount of volatility possible.

在結束之前，先簡單說明這些收購在我們的整體資本配置策略中的位置。我們的目標仍然是擁有該行業中長期總回報率最高的公寓投資組合，重點關注現金流成長並考慮風險並盡可能減少波動性。

We intend to achieve this goal by catering to well-earning renters in the 12 or so metro areas that we think have the most desirable lifestyles for this demographic and present the best balance of long-term supply, demand, regulatory and resiliency opportunities and risks and where we can efficiently operate our properties with our industry-leading people and systems.

我們打算透過為大約12 個都會區的高收入租戶提供服務來實現這一目標，我們認為這些地區擁有該人群最理想的生活方式，並在長期供應、需求、監管和彈性機會與風險之間實現最佳平衡以及我們可以透過業界領先的人員和系統高效地經營我們的物業。

As the last few years have shown, there is no risk list apartment market. The volatility and negative rental growth we see in the expansion markets and the strong results we are seeing in our Northeastern markets, many of which were recently left for dead by investors, reinforces our commitment to our strategy of better balancing our portfolio between coastal markets and select Sunbelt markets as well as urban and suburban locations. We expect the benefits of this balanced strategy to play out in 2025.

正如過去幾年所表明的那樣，公寓市場不存在風險清單。我們在擴張市場中看到的波動性和負租金成長，以及我們在東北市場看到的強勁業績（其中許多市場最近被投資者遺棄）加強了我們對更好地平衡沿海市場和市場之間的投資組合的策略的承諾。我們預計這種平衡策略的好處將在 2025 年發揮出來。

Seattle and San Francisco, particularly our uniquely urban portfolios in those markets should generate better same-store revenue results, which, along with the continued strength in the Northeast, and the favorable 2025 supply picture across almost all of our established markets should more than offset continued supply-driven weakness in our expansion markets.

西雅圖和舊金山，特別是我們在這些市場中獨特的城市投資組合，應該會產生更好的同店收入結果，再加上東北部的持續強勁，以及我們幾乎所有成熟市場的2025 年有利供應情況，應該會抵消這影響我們的擴張市場持續受到供應驅動的疲軟。

In later years, the supply wanes in our expansion markets, those markets will be more of a same-store rev growth engine for our company. We are confident this balanced geographical strategy, coupled with our efficient operating platform will create value over the long term for our investors, and are eager to demonstrate this over the next several years.

在接下來的幾年裡，我們擴張市場的供應量會減弱，這些市場將更成為我們公司同店收入成長的引擎。我們相信，這種平衡的地域策略加上我們高效的營運平台將為我們的投資者創造長期價值，並渴望在未來幾年證明這一點。

And with that, I'll turn the call over to Alex Brackenridge.

接下來，我會將電話轉給 Alex Brackenridge。

Thank you, Mark. As we discussed on our call in January, we came to [2024] committed to continuing to reposition our portfolio by increasing our presence in our expansion markets of Atlanta, Dallas and Denver. For the first half of the year, the market remained frozen and we made no progress.

謝謝你，馬克。正如我們在 1 月的電話會議上討論的那樣，我們到了 [2024]，致力於透過增加我們在亞特蘭大、達拉斯和丹佛等擴張市場的影響力來繼續重新定位我們的投資組合。上半年，市場依然冰凍，我們毫無進展。

However, in the third quarter, as interest rates dropped in the possibility of a soft landing for the economy became more evident, market owned up and we significantly stepped up our activity, closing on 14 assets with over 4,400 units and a total price of $1.26 billion.

然而，在第三季度，隨著利率下降，經濟軟著陸的可能性變得更加明顯，市場已經擁有了，我們顯著加強了我們的活動，關閉了14 項資產，超過4,400 套，總價為1.26 美元十億。

Those acquisitions were funded by a combination of the proceeds from the $600 million bond issuance that Mark mentioned, $365 million in dispositions and $295 million of commercial paper. The dispositions consist of six assets located in San Francisco, Washington D.C. and Boston that averaged 43 years old and sold for a 5.7% disposition yield.

這些收購的資金來源包括馬克提到的 6 億美元債券發行收益、3.65 億美元處置資金和 2.95 億美元商業票據。此次處置包括位於舊金山、華盛頓特區和波士頓的六項資產，這些資產的平均使用年限為 43 年，處分收益率為 5.7%。

All of the assets were noncore holdings that had a combination of significant CapEx needs in a variety of operating challenges. The actions meanwhile averaged just seven years old, have limited retail and are all 100% market rate. 11 came from an off-market portfolio from Blackstone that was tailored to fit our pension strategy in terms of asset quality and locations.

所有資產都是非核心資產，在各種營運挑戰中具有龐大的資本支出需求。同時，這些動作平均只有七年歷史，零售有限，而且都是 100% 的市場價格。 11 來自 Blackstone 的場外投資組合，該投資組合專為在資產品質和地點方面適合我們的退休金策略而量身定制。

Recognizing our ability to provide speed and certainty of execution, Blackstone chose to deal directly with us rather than execute the typical auction process. The other three acquisitions were one-offs purchased for merchant building. After end of the quarter, we closed on an additional asset in Atlanta for $89.5 million. The weighted average cap rate on all this activity was 5% and is anticipated to generate an 8% unleveraged IRR.

認識到我們有能力提供執行速度和確定性，黑石選擇直接與我們打交道，而不是執行典型的拍賣流程。另外三筆收購是為商業建築而一次性購買的。本季末後，我們以 8,950 萬美元的價格在亞特蘭大收購了一項額外資產。所有這些活動的加權平均上限率為 5%，預計將產生 8% 的非槓桿 IRR。

These transactions appeal to us because they allowed us to expand our presence in markets with strong job growth, increasing numbers of affluent renters and relatively low regulatory risk at an attractive basis that is approximately 15% below estimated replacement cost.

這些交易對我們很有吸引力，因為它們使我們能夠擴大我們在就業成長強勁、富裕租戶數量增加和監管風險相對較低的市場的影響力，且監管風險相對較低，且基礎價格比估計重置成本低約15%。

Admittedly, these markets are also seeing outsized supply relative to our coastal markets. Accordingly, our underwriting reflects competitive leasing environments for the first two years of our ownership with rental income down or flat depending on the amount of approximate deliveries. We expect that some of that back to NOI will be offset by running these assets more efficiently on the revenue and expense side as we integrate them into our Superior operating platform.

誠然，相對於我們的海岸市場，這些市場的供應量也過大。因此，我們的承保反映了我們所有權前兩年的競爭性租賃環境，租金收入下降或持平，具體取決於大致交付量。我們預計，隨著我們將這些資產整合到我們的高級營運平台中，我們將透過在收入和支出方面更有效地運行這些資產來抵消部分 NOI 的損失。

We anticipate having further opportunities to purchase assets in these markets as the supply pipeline is up in 2026 and more robust rent growth will be on the horizon. But at that time, pricing will likely be at lower cap rates and at a less attractive price relative to replacement costs.

我們預計，隨著 2026 年供應管道的增加以及即將出現更強勁的租金成長，我們將有更多機會在這些市場購買資產。但到那時，定價可能會較低，且相對於重置成本而言，價格吸引力較低。

As we head into the end of the year and plan for 2025, we expect to continue to see attractive acquisition opportunities at around 5 cap rates in Atlanta, Dallas and Denver. And with a cost of capital advantage and the ability to complete due diligence quickly relative to leverage buyers expect to close on a sizable share of transaction activity. We currently have an asset number and one in Atlanta totaling approximately $190 million under contract to close before the end of the year at around a [5] cap.

隨著我們進入年底併計劃 2025 年，我們預計亞特蘭大、達拉斯和丹佛將繼續看到資本化率約為 5 倍的有吸引力的收購機會。憑藉資本成本優勢以及相對於槓桿快速完成盡職調查的能力，買家預計將完成相當大一部分的交易活動。目前，我們在亞特蘭大擁有一處資產，總價值約為 1.9 億美元，合約將於年底前以 [5] 上限完成。

Austin, our fourth expansion market, where we have only three assets remains challenged with a historic amount of deliveries that is resulting in a highly competitive rental market leading us to stay on the sidelines given hard it is to assess when things will stabilize.

奧斯汀是我們的第四個擴張市場，在那裡我們只有三項資產，但仍然面臨著歷史性交付量的挑戰，這導致租賃市場競爭激烈，導致我們保持觀望，因為很難評估情況何時會穩定下來。

With our recent closings and assuming stabilization of development deals in progress, as Mark noted in his comments, we now have approximately 10% of our portfolio in our expansion markets, towards a goal of 20% to 25% that if the transaction market remains favorable, we expect to achieve over the next 18 to 24 months.

正如馬克在評論中指出的那樣，隨著我們最近的交割並假設開發交易正在進行中，我們現在約有10% 的投資組合處於擴張市場，如果交易市場保持有利，我們的目標是20% 至25 % ，我們預計在未來 18 至 24 個月內實現。

We are excited to add exposure to these high job growth markets that will see declining supply over the next two to three years. What should not be forgotten, however, is that the reduction in supply is even more dramatic in our coastal markets, where starts are down nearly 60% in 2024 after being down over 30% in 2023. With 2025 starts projected to be down again, we anticipate one of the best supply-demand balances in our coastal markets that we have seen in a very long time.

我們很高興能夠增加對這些高就業成長市場的投資，這些市場的供應將在未來兩到三年內下降。然而，不應忘記的是，沿海市場的供應量減少更為劇烈，開工率在 2023 年下降了 30% 以上，到 2024 年下降了近 60%。由於 2025 年開工率預計將再次下降，我們預計沿海市場將出現很長一段時間以來最好的供需平衡之一。

Our expansion market exposure, combined with our postal market presence positions us to generate optimal risk-adjusted returns for our shareholders, catering to a customer with a resilient and growing income while balancing out supply, regulatory and resiliency challenges.

我們不斷擴大的市場份額，加上我們在郵政市場的影響力，使我們能夠為股東創造最佳的風險調整回報，滿足具有彈性和不斷增長的收入的客戶的需求，同時平衡供應、監管和彈性挑戰。

I will now turn the call over to Michael Manelis.

我現在將把電話轉給邁克爾·馬內利斯。

Thanks, Alex, and thanks to everyone for joining us today. This morning, I will review our third quarter 2024 operating performance as well as our expectations for the remainder of the year and what the setup for 2025 could look like.

謝謝亞歷克斯，也謝謝大家今天加入我們。今天早上，我將回顧我們 2024 年第三季的營運表現以及我們對今年剩餘時間的預期以及 2025 年的安排。

As Mark mentioned, fundamentals in our business remain solid. During the third quarter, our focus on serving our customers and our corresponding strong renewal process led to the lowest reported third quarter resident turnover in our history, and strong physical occupancy of 96.1%. Move-outs to buy homes remained extraordinarily low and renewal rate achieved was strong across most markets.

正如馬克所提到的，我們業務的基本面依然穩固。在第三季度，我們專注於為客戶提供服務以及相應的強勁更新流程，導致第三季度居民營業額創歷史新低，實際入住率高達 96.1%。大多數市場的搬出購屋率仍然非常低，而且續租率也很高。

Blended rate, however, ended up at the low end of our expectations for the quarter, primarily from lower-than-expected new lease change driven by the City of Los Angeles and continued pressure in our expansion markets.

然而，混合利率最終處於我們對本季預期的低端，這主要是由於洛杉磯市推動的新租賃變化低於預期以及我們擴張市場的持續壓力。

In these markets, the pressure from excess inventory from both eviction-related existing and new supply has led us to prioritize occupancy to maximize revenue, which came at the expense of some rate growth during the quarter.

在這些市場中，與驅逐相關的現有供應和新供應造成庫存過剩的壓力，導致我們優先考慮入住率，以最大限度地提高收入，這是以犧牲本季度的一些增長率為代價的。

It is also important to remember that it is often not uncommon to see variability in new lease change over relatively short periods of time. For example, while we saw a steeper and earlier decline than usual and new lease change in the third quarter, we have seen a better picture so far in the fourth quarter for this volatile statistic.

同樣重要的是要記住，在相對較短的時間內新租約變化的變化通常並不罕見。例如，雖然我們在第三季度看到了比平常更大幅度和更早的下降以及新租約的變化，但迄今為止，我們在第四季度看到了這一波動性統計數據的更好情況。

Looking at the remainder of the year, our strategy of maximizing revenue by maintaining higher occupancy heading into the quieter months of the year should drive performance along with positive contributions from other income and bad debt net. We still anticipate normal seasonal rent deceleration which will result in negative new lease change in the fourth quarter. But at this point, we are seeing very stable renewal rate achieved results.

展望今年剩餘時間，我們透過在今年淡季月份保持較高入住率來實現收入最大化的策略，以及其他收入和壞帳淨額的積極貢獻，應該會推動業績。我們仍然預計正常的季節性租金下降將導致第四季新租約變化。但在這一點上，我們看到續訂率取得了非常穩定的成果。

And of note, Seattle and San Francisco have both a relatively easier pricing comp in the fourth quarter and have shown good early signs of improvement, including maintaining strong occupancy and reducing concession usage. Sitting here today, our net effective rents at the portfolio level are close to 2% above prior year, which is also a solid position to be in.

值得注意的是，西雅圖和舊金山在第四季度的定價比較相對容易，並且已經顯示出良好的早期改善跡象，包括保持強勁的入住率和減少特許權使用。今天坐在這裡，我們在投資組合層面的淨有效租金比去年同期成長了近 2%，這也是一個穩固的地位。

Now let me give you some color on the market starting with East Coast. The Boston market is one of our best performers in 2024. Both our urban and suburban portfolios are performing well, but consistent with our expectations, the urban portfolio produced stronger results in the third quarter. We like our positioning here as our urban-centric portfolio will see very little competitive new supply for the remainder of '24 and the full year of 2025.

現在讓我從東海岸開始為您介紹一些市場狀況。波士頓市場是 2024 年表現最好的市場之一。我們的城市和郊區投資組合都表現良好，但與我們的預期一致，城市投資組合在第三季度取得了更好的表現。我們喜歡我們在這裡的定位，因為我們以城市為中心的投資組合在 24 年剩餘時間和 2025 年全年幾乎不會看到有競爭力的新供應。

Moving on to New York. Demand feels good as we are more than 97% occupied. And as we have said on past calls, with a solid job market and very little competitive new supply, we think this market will continue to produce good revenue growth, and we'll have some of the best supply-demand dynamics in the country for the next couple of years. Rounding out the East Coast, Washington, D.C. continues to be the rock star of 2024.

繼續前往紐約。需求感覺良好，因為我們的入住率超過 97%。正如我們在過去的電話會議中所說，由於就業市場穩定，而且新供應的競爭性很小，我們認為這個市場將繼續產生良好的收入增長，並且我們將擁有該國最好的供需動態未來幾年。除了東海岸之外，華盛頓特區仍然是 2024 年的搖滾明星。

The market is over 96.5% occupied and is producing some of the top rental rate growth in our portfolio. Demand feels good across all of our submarkets and is expected to continue but we do expect some pressure from deliveries in the fourth quarter, particularly in the central DC submarket.

該市場的佔有率超過 96.5%，並且在我們的投資組合中租金成長率最高。我們所有子市場的需求都良好，預計將持續下去，但我們確實預計第四季度的交付會帶來一些壓力，特別是在中部 DC 子市場。

On the West Coast, as I mentioned, Los Angeles showed some weakness in blended rate growth, particularly in the new lease change. We think there are a few factors in player. First, our overall pricing power here was clearly impacted by less job growth than anticipated, especially office using jobs and a bit of a pause from the L.A. studios in the content production.

正如我所提到的，在西海岸，洛杉磯在混合利率成長方面表現出一些弱點，特別是在新的租約變更方面。我們認為有幾個球員因素。首先，我們的整體定價能力顯然受到就業成長低於預期的影響，尤其是使用辦公室的就業機會以及洛杉磯工作室在內容製作方面的暫停。

Second, on supply, we are seeing some competitive new supply, particularly in the Downtown, Koreatown and West L.A. submarkets as well as some excess supply coming online due to continued improvements in the eviction process, which is now taking about four months, down from six months earlier in the year.

其次，在供應方面，我們看到一些有競爭力的新供應，特別是在市中心、韓國城和西洛杉磯子市場，以及由於驅逐程序的持續改進而出現的一些過剩供應，目前驅逐程序需要大約四個月的時間，低於今年早些時候六個月。

Finally, the city is still working through some quality-of-life issues in the urban submarkets like Koreatown and Downtown L.A. Our suburban portfolios, primarily driven by Santa Carina and Ventura County are performing better than our urban submarkets.

最後，該市仍在解決韓國城和洛杉磯市中心等城市子市場的一些生活品質問題。

The good news is that we are seeing some positive momentum across the entire Los Angeles market right now. And with our rents on top of last year, a condition we have not seen all year long puts us in a favorable position. In addition, today's occupancy is running 40 basis points above both the prior year and is trending positively versus the third quarter.

好消息是，我們現在看到整個洛杉磯市場出現了一些積極的勢頭。由於我們的租金高於去年，這種我們全年未曾見過的情況使我們處於有利的地位。此外，今天的入住率比去年同期高出 40 個基點，並且與第三季相比呈現正面趨勢。

We are also experiencing some of the highest retention rates of the year in Los Angeles. And while job growth has been somewhat muted in 2024, projections for Moody Analytics are much more positive for growth in Los Angeles in 2025, particularly office using jobs. Assuming that comes to pass, then along with the modest new apartment deliveries in most places across this vast geography, we think we should drive a reacceleration of results in 2025.

我們也經歷了洛杉磯今年最高的保留率。儘管 2024 年就業成長放緩，但穆迪分析公司 (Moody Analytics) 的預測對洛杉磯 2025 年的成長更為積極，尤其是辦公室就業。假設這種情況成為現實，那麼隨著這個廣闊地理區域大多數地方的新公寓交付量不大，我們認為我們應該在 2025 年推動業績重新加速。

In the rest of Southern California, San Diego and Orange County, we continue to see demand but evidence of some price sensitivity with residents willing to move further out in these markets for affordability reasons. After showing some of the best growth in the portfolio over the last few years, we are likely returning to more normal long-term growth rates.

在南加州其他地區、聖地牙哥和橘郡，我們繼續看到需求，但有證據表明，居民出於負擔能力的原因願意進一步遷往這些市場。在顯示過去幾年投資組合的一些最佳成長之後，我們可能會恢復到更正常的長期成長率。

Rounding out the West Coast, San Francisco and Seattle continue to perform better than our original modest expectations. At this point, we feel good about the pace of recovery in these two markets, and they're set up to contribute to growth in 2025, and we have included a page in the management presentation that highlights some of the favorable trends we are already seeing in these markets.

西海岸的舊金山和西雅圖的表現繼續好於我們最初的適度預期。目前，我們對這兩個市場的復甦步伐感到滿意，它們將在 2025 年為成長做出貢獻，我們在管理層簡報中包含了一個頁面，強調了我們已經發現的一些有利趨勢在這些市場上看到。

In San Francisco, demand feels good with occupancy of 96.2%, which is 90 basis points higher than last year. Rents are following normal seasonal patterns, but we are seeing slower deceleration compared to last year and renewals are performing well. In addition, some impactful return to office policy from firms like

舊金山的需求良好，入住率為 96.2%，比去年高 90 個基點。租金遵循正常的季節性模式，但與去年相比，我們看到減速速度較慢，續租表現良好。此外，公司也制定了一些有影響力的重返辦公室政策，例如

Salesforce are helping to drive significant improvements to street activation. Having just spent a week in the market, you can really feel the energy and a reminder of why this market is the center of the tech universe, including the rapidly growing AI sector.

Salesforce 正在協助推動街道啟動的重大改進。剛在市場待了一周，您就能真正感受到活力，並提醒您為什麼這個市場是科技領域的中心，包括快速成長的人工智慧領域。

On the supply side, there is very little new supply coming to the market. Overall starts are way down, and there have been almost no new competitive starts for the last year, which supports improving conditions for the next couple of years. We are optimistic about this market and its ability to drive our results in 2025.

在供應方面，進入市場的新供應很少。整體開工率大幅下降，去年幾乎沒有新的競爭性開工，這支持了未來幾年條件的改善。我們對這個市場及其推動 2025 年業績的能力持樂觀態度。

In Seattle, the recovery feels similar to San Cisco but further along. During the third quarter, same-store revenue reflected improvement driven by low turnover, strong occupancy and better-than-expected renewal rate achieved. New lease change, while still more negative than we would like is better than last year, and we would expect this metric to improve over time.

在西雅圖，復甦的感覺與聖思科相似，但更進一步。第三季度，同店收入因營業額低、入住率高以及續訂率好於預期而有所改善。新的租賃變化雖然仍然比我們希望的負面影響比去年，但我們預計這項指標會隨著時間的推移而改善。

As we sit here today, demand drivers are better than we thought. Our occupancy is over 96% and our renewal performance remains strong. And looking at our migration patterns, we are also seeing more people come to us from further out suburbs, which is an additional demand driver for our assets.

當我們今天坐在這裡時，需求驅動因素比我們想像的要好。我們的入住率超過 96%，而且我們的更新業績依然強勁。從我們的移民模式來看，我們也看到越來越多的人從更遠的郊區來到我們這裡，這是對我們資產的額外需求驅動力。

The big recent story here is the five-day week return-to-office announcement from Amazon, which is the 800-pound gorilla in the market. For the past several weeks, our local team have reported increased interest from Amazon folks who are living further away from the office and looking for apartment homes in the downtown and South Lake Union submarkets.

最近的大新聞是亞馬遜宣布每週五天重返辦公室，這是市場上的 800 磅重的大猩猩。在過去的幾周里，我們的當地團隊報告稱，居住在距離辦公室較遠的亞馬遜人員在市中心和南聯合湖子市場尋找公寓房的興趣增加。

With focus from City government and the local business community, along with increased business and tourist foot traffic, livability in the downtown just keeps getting better. Another reason positive is that the tech employment in the market looks solid as we see more postings for physicians in both the city of Seattle and Bellevue Redmond's area.

在市政府和當地商界的關注下，隨著商業和遊客人流量的增加，市中心的宜居性不斷改善。另一個積極的原因是，市場上的科技就業看起來很穩固，因為我們看到西雅圖市和貝爾維尤雷德蒙德地區的醫生職位都有所增加。

As previously discussed, there is supply coming in the fourth quarter, and we will need to see how the demand and pricing holds. But at present, it should finish the year strong and like San Francisco, we have some real optimism on this market and what it can contribute in 2025.

如同前面所討論的，第四季會有供應，我們需要看看需求和定價如何。但目前，它應該會在今年表現強勁，就像舊金山一樣，我們對這個市場及其在 2025 年的貢獻抱持著真正的樂觀態度。

Switching to the expansion markets. The volume of competitive new supply continues to impact both occupancy and rate. Denver is our best performer of the expansion markets and our relatively small same-store portfolios in the other expansion markets, Dallas is producing the best revenue results in Atlanta, where we have the most direct exposure to new supply right now is the worst. We continue to see demand, but it is a challenging operating environment for both new lease and retention given the amount of new supply.

轉向拓展市場。具競爭力的新供應量持續影響入住率和房價。丹佛是我們擴張市場中表現最好的，而我們在其他擴張市場中的同店投資組合相對較小，達拉斯在亞特蘭大產生了最好的收入結果，在那裡我們對新供應的直接接觸目前是最差的。我們繼續看到需求，但考慮到新增供應量，對於新租賃和保留來說，這是一個充滿挑戰的營運環境。

Similar to last quarter, the pressure on new leases makes renewing residents and maintaining occupancy, the number one priority for these markets. As you know, we added a number of new suburban assets to our portfolio in Atlanta, Dallas, and Denver during the quarter and will have a while before they are in our same-store reported results.

與上季類似，新租賃的壓力使得更新居民和維持入住率成為這些市場的首要任務。如您所知，本季度我們在亞特蘭大、達拉斯和丹佛的投資組合中添加了一些新的郊區資產，並且需要一段時間才能將它們納入我們的同店報告結果中。

Overall, we are excited to grow our portfolio and create in these markets. While these markets have near-term supply risk, they continue to demonstrate long-term demand from our target renter demographic and provide a nice balance to our core portfolio.

總的來說，我們很高興能夠擴大我們的產品組合併在這些市場中進行創造。雖然這些市場存在短期供應風險，但它們繼續表現出我們的目標租戶群體的長期需求，並為我們的核心投資組合提供了良好的平衡。

On the innovation front, we are very pleased with the initial results of our new AI resident inquiry application, which was able to handle almost 60% of our inquiries in our test market. We have a lot of confidence that as this application keeps learning we will get to 75% to 80% coverage, which will create an additional layer of operating efficiencies in the company.

在創新方面，我們對新的 AI 常駐查詢應用程式的初步結果感到非常滿意，該應用程式能夠處理我們測試市場中近 60% 的查詢。我們非常有信心，隨著該應用程式不斷學習，我們將達到 75% 至 80% 的覆蓋率，這將為公司創造更高的營運效率。

Looking ahead, now that we have centralized the support of many parts of our customer journey, we are looking forward to improving and optimizing those processes, including the upcoming efforts to streamline the leasing process to make it faster and easier for our renters. Before I discuss the 2025 building blocks, I would like to highlight our expense performance in the quarter.

展望未來，既然我們已經集中了對客戶旅程的許多部分的支持，我們期待改進和優化這些流程，包括即將簡化租賃流程的努力，使我們的租戶更快、更輕鬆。在討論 2025 年的建置模組之前，我想先強調一下我們在本季的費用表現。

Continued favorable results on property taxes, low increases on repairs and maintenance and utilities and an actual decrease in on-site payroll drove the quarterly results and should get us to our expected 3% midpoint for the year. We are very proud of our 10-year same-store expense compounded annual growth rate of 3.2% and consider cost control and innovation implementation as core to our DNA at EQR.

財產稅的持續有利結果、維修和保養以及公用事業的低增長以及現場工資的實際減少推動了季度業績的增長，並應使我們達到全年預期 3% 的中位數。我們對 10 年同店費用複合年增長率 3.2% 感到非常自豪，並將成本控制和創新實施視為 EQR DNA 的核心。

In closing, as Mark mentioned, while it's still too early to give 2025 guidance on page 7 in the management presentation that we have published last night, we gave some building blocks for next year's rev performance.

最後，正如馬克所提到的，雖然在我們昨晚發布的管理簡報第 7 頁中給出 2025 年指導還為時過早，但我們為明年的轉速表現提供了一些基礎。

Overall, the setup for 2025 feels solid. Today, we expect that we will start the year with embedded growth near 1% and in a very well-occupied position. We also have a very favorable setup as the expected deliveries of competitive new supply in our established markets will be lower again. And while the expansion markets still have significant supply expected, the absolute quantity is beginning to come down.

總體而言，2025 年的設置感覺很穩固。今天，我們預計今年伊始我們的內嵌成長率將接近 1%，並且處於非常有利的位置。我們還有一個非常有利的設置，因為我們現有市場中具有競爭力的新供應的預期交付量將再次降低。儘管擴張市場預計仍有大量供應，但絕對數量已開始下降。

On top of all of that, we like our ability to attract and retain new residents. In particular, we are most excited about the potential we see from our focus on the customer and our ability to maintain occupancy along with the upside we see from our West Coast markets of Los Angeles, San Francisco, and Seattle, which make up 42% of the company's NOI.

最重要的是，我們喜歡我們吸引和留住新居民的能力。尤其令我們感到最興奮的是，我們對客戶的關注所帶來的潛力、維持入住率的能力，以及洛杉磯、舊金山和西雅圖等西海岸市場（佔 42%）的上升空間。

Those factors, coupled with the continued performance in our East Coast markets should deliver solid revenue results for the company in 2025.

這些因素，加上我們東岸市場的持續表現，應該會在 2025 年為公司帶來穩健的營收表現。

I want to thank our amazing teams across our platform for their continued dedication to innovation, enhancing customer service and their exceptional disciplined approach to expense management.

我要感謝我們平台上出色的團隊不斷致力於創新、增強客戶服務以及他們卓越的嚴格的費用管理方法。

With that, I will turn the call over to the operator to begin the Q&A session.

之後，我會將電話轉交給接線生開始問答環節。

(Operator Instructions) Eric Wolfe, Citi.

（操作員指示）Eric Wolfe，花旗銀行。

You mentioned in your presentation the potential for bad debt and other income to add to revenue growth next year. I know it's still early, but could you just give us a sense for what you're thinking about that potential? For other income, I would assume it's mainly tied to the WiFi program. So we think there's some good visibility there but correct me I'm wrong.

您在演講中提到壞帳和其他收入有可能增加明年的收入成長。我知道現在還為時過早，但您能否告訴我們您對這種潛力的看法？對於其他收入，我認為主要與 WiFi 計劃相關。所以我們認為那裡有一些良好的可見性，但糾正我，我錯了。

Yes. Eric, it's Bob. I'll start, and Michael might augment on some of the other income stuff. But starting with bad debt, we continue to expect to end 2024 around, call it, 1% or maybe slightly better than that of a percentage of revenue. So bad debt as a percentage of revenue.

是的。艾瑞克，是鮑勃。我先開始，麥可可能會增加一些其他收入的內容。但從壞帳開始，我們繼續預計到 2024 年底，這一數字將達到 1% 或略好於收入百分比。壞帳佔收入的百分比。

If normal is -- normal, meaning pre-pandemic is around 50 basis points. The opportunity set is delta between there, right? We'll have to see what the progress looks like. We'll have to see what the court system looks like as to whether or not we get all the way there, but to kind of frame a construct of what the opportunity set or content incremental growth is, is somewhere between that 1% and back to normalcy. We'll give you more color as we get to the fourth quarter guidance as to what's embedded in our numbers overall.

如果正常的話——正常，意味著疫情前的漲幅約為 50 個基點。機會集是兩者之間的增量，對吧？我們必須看看進展如何。我們必須看看法院系統是什麼樣子，以決定我們是否能一路到達那裡，但要建立機會集或內容增量成長的結構，介於 1% 和後面之間至正常狀態。當我們獲得第四季度的指導時，我們將為您提供更多有關我們總體數據中包含的內容的資訊。

On the other income side, you're correct that a lot of it is -- and we mentioned this, this will be a contributor to fourth quarter performance as well. But a lot of our initiatives were back-end loaded, in terms of their implementation, particularly the bulk WiFi and the adoption of the bulk WiFi. So that will start contributing in a more has started in the third quarter, but will be more meaningful in the fourth quarter and will continue to contribute as you get into $25 million.

在其他收入方面，你是對的，其中很多都是——我們提到過這一點，這也將成為第四季度業績的貢獻者。但我們的許多措施在實施方面都是後端加載的，特別是批量 WiFi 和批量 WiFi 的採用。因此，這將在第三季度開始做出更多貢獻，但在第四季度將更有意義，並且當您達到 2500 萬美元時將繼續做出貢獻。

With that will come a little bit of expense component, which I think you're familiar with in the industry when you implement this, but there should be good contribution that will be potential for being greater than what you saw in '24 because of the timing of those rollouts.

隨之而來的是一些費用部分，我認為當你實施這個時，你在行業中很熟悉，但是應該有很好的貢獻，有可能比你在 24 年看到的更大，因為這些推出的時間。

Got it. That's helpful. And then you also talked about seeing more Sunbelt opportunities. I think you said low 5% cap rate range. We've seen a lot of volatility in the 10-year dropping too as I think it's 3.5%, now back up at 4.3%. I mean as it sort of oscillates back and forth, does that change your pricing that you're willing to transact at all? Or are you just less sort of focused on your short-term cost of capital?

知道了。這很有幫助。然後您還談到看到更多陽光地帶的機會。我想你說的是 5% 的低上限利率範圍。我們也看到了 10 年期公債的大幅波動，我認為是 3.5%，現在回升至 4.3%。我的意思是，當它來回波動時，這是否會改變您願意交易的定價？或者您只是不太關注短期資本成本？

Eric, it's Alex. Rates have moved so quickly. It's a little hard to assess that. But I will tell you that as of recently as last week, there were opportunities pricing at like 4.75%-ish in markets like Denver and Dallas. So there's a lot of capital, a lot of people interested in apartments.

艾瑞克，這是亞歷克斯。利率變化如此之快。對此進行評估有點困難。但我會告訴你，截至上週，丹佛和達拉斯等市場的機會定價約為 4.75%。所以有很多資本，很多人對公寓有興趣。

Now we're at a 10 year, it's 4.3% something, maybe that changes a little bit. The reality is with the uncertainty about rates plus the election coming up, there isn't that much product on the market right now. I think this will be a feeling out process for everyone, as we see where things end up, but there's still all this capital. I think overall, the 5 cap rate feels pretty good to me looking forward.

現在我們已經到了 10 年，大約是 4.3%，也許會發生一些變化。現實情況是，由於利率的不確定性加上即將到來的選舉，目前市場上沒有那麼多產品。我認為這對每個人來說都是一個摸索的過程，我們會看到事情的結局，但仍然有所有這些資本。我認為總體而言，5 上限利率對我來說感覺相當不錯。

(Operator Instructions) Steve Sakwa, Evercore ISI.

（操作員說明）Steve Sakwa，Evercore ISI。

I guess given the projections that you guys have for fourth quarter on blended leasing spreads, that's going to sort of bring the figure in somewhere just under 2% for the year, and that's down about 100 basis points from the '23 number.

我想，考慮到你們對第四季混合租賃利差的預測，今年的數字將略低於 2%，比 23 年的數字下降了約 100 個基點。

So as we kind of think out into next year, I know supply is coming down, but it's still relatively heavy, and you still have deliveries that are kind of working through the back half of this year that haven't been fully absorbed.

因此，當我們考慮明年時，我知道供應量正在下降，但仍然相對較多，而且今年下半年仍有交貨量尚未完全吸收。

So I'm just curious, is it your expectation that leasing spreads could actually hold next year? Or do you think with slowing economy, slowing job growth. And still some heavy deliveries that leasing spreads likely moderate again next year?

所以我很好奇，您是否期望明年的租賃利差能夠維持不變？或者你認為經濟放緩、就業成長放緩。明年租賃利差是否仍可能再次放緩？

Steve, this is Michael. Maybe I'll just start and just say. So first, we're just -- we're in the very early stages of our kind of budget process that we're putting in all those factors that you just described. In terms of the leasing spreads and how to think about this, I revert back to kind of this page 5 in the management presentation that really talks more about just the pricing trend and what's happening with absolute market rent growth, kind of on a year-over-year basis because that's really going to be the cast that's going to drive a lot of that.

史蒂夫，這是麥可。也許我會開始說。首先，我們正處於預算流程的早期階段，我們正在將您剛才描述的所有因素納入其中。就租賃利差以及如何思考這一點而言，我回到了管理層演示文稿中的第 5 頁，該演示文稿實際上更多地討論了定價趨勢以及絕對市場租金增長的情況（大約一年）-同比基礎上，因為這確實是演員陣容的動力。

Right now, a lot of the factors for the setup for 2025 feel very similar as we were heading into 2024 and how we talked about it. But I still think it's a little bit too early for me to kind of give you the guidance on where we think intra-period like market rent is going to grow.

目前，2025 年的許多因素與我們即將進入 2024 年以及我們談論它的方式非常相似。但我仍然認為，現在就我們認為期內市場租金的成長方向提供指導還為時過早。

But I don't -- I mean we have a lot of things that are set up to be catalyst for us, but we also know we still got to work through some of the absorption of supply in some of these markets. So I think we'll just see kind of how this plays out for the next couple of quarters.

但我不——我的意思是，我們有很多東西可以成為我們的催化劑，但我們也知道，我們仍然需要努力吸收其中一些市場的供應。所以我認為我們將看看接下來幾季的情況如何。

Okay. And then maybe on the expense side, kind of following up on Eric's question about the WiFi. I know you get the benefits of revenue, but there's also a cost associated with that. You guys have done a very good job keeping expenses down around the 3% level. Is that growth rate achievable next year, you think, with kind of these added expenses? Or is it likely that we see a little bit of pressure on the expense side just due to the pickup in other income revenue growth?

好的。然後也許是在費用方面，有點像是艾瑞克關於 WiFi 的問題的後續。我知道你可以獲得收入的好處，但也有相關的成本。你們在將開支控制在 3% 左右的水平上做得非常好。您認為，在增加這些費用的情況下，明年可以實現這一成長率嗎？或者我們可能僅僅因為其他收入成長的回升而在支出方面看到一點壓力？

Steve, it's Mark. You may see a little pressure above that 3%. We talked about on the last call, we've got still pressure from the 421-a burn-off of the tax abatement in New York. So it will be a little there. Certainly, the inflation numbers this morning were a little discouraging.

史蒂夫，我是馬克。您可能會看到高於 3% 的壓力。我們在上次電話會議上談到，我們仍然面臨來自紐約 421-a 減稅計劃燒毀的壓力。所以會有一點。當然，今天早上的通膨數據有點令人沮喪。

So there may just continue to be some cost pressure. But whatever that number is, we'll be at the low end of it. And I think we'll quantify it for you, so you know exactly what the WiFi impact is. And of course, there's an offsetting much more significant revenue benefit.

因此，成本壓力可能仍然存在。但無論這個數字是多少，我們都將處於這個數字的低端。我想我們會為您進行量化，以便您準確了解 WiFi 的影響。當然，還有更重要的收入收益來抵銷。

But I guess it wouldn't surprise me if the number was a little bit higher than the number, we're going to put up this year. But we're still rolling numbers up.

但我想，如果這個數字比我們今年要提出的數字略高一點，我也不會感到驚訝。但我們仍在不斷增加數字。

Haendel St. Juste, Mizuho.

亨德爾‧聖朱斯特，瑞穗。

So first question, I guess, was just on the portfolio performance during the quarter. Maybe you could kind of walk us through how that evolves over the course of the third quarter. It seemed like there was a bit of a drop there in December in new lease rates.

我想第一個問題只是關於本季投資組合的表現。也許你可以向我們介紹一下第三季的情況如何演變。12 月新租賃利率似乎略有下降。

And maybe as we look ahead to the fourth quarter, I think new lease rates are expected to fall to about negative 4% from the minus 1% in the third quarter. So I'm looking for some color on kind of where you see perhaps the incremental drag? I'm pretty sort of San Francisco and Seattle pretty easy comps given last year's performance.

也許當我們展望第四季時，我認為新租賃率預計將從第三季的負 1% 降至負 4% 左右。所以我正在尋找一些顏色來說明您可能在哪裡看到增量阻力？考慮到去年的表現，我認為舊金山和西雅圖的比賽相當容易。

Haendel, this is Michael. So I think what I would start and just say is let's just back up and think about the third quarter. So what we saw in the third quarter, and it was really the later part of the third quarter is, we've had an occupancy kind of bias. We've been leaning into that. And specific to really the city of Los Angeles and the expansion markets, we've done with the rates, we increased some of the concession usage.

亨德爾，這是麥可。所以我想我首先要說的是讓我們回顧一下第三季。所以我們在第三季看到的，實際上是第三季後期的情況是，我們有一種入住率偏差。我們一直在傾向於這一點。具體到洛杉磯市和擴張市場，我們已經完成了費率，我們增加了一些特許權的使用。

And you can kind of see that on page 5 in that pricing trend where you just didn't have as much robust kind of pricing power near the tail end of the quarter. And that translated right into that new lease change for us for the number.

您可以在第 5 頁的定價趨勢中看到，在季度末附近您沒有那麼強大的定價能力。這直接轉化為我們對數字的新租約變更。

Where we sit here now in October, right, we've got a setup where you do -- like you said, we have a little bit of an easier comp coming at us in Seattle and San Francisco. I've got a market like Los Angeles, right now have rents on top of prior year, and that's a condition we haven't seen all year long.

十月我們現在坐在這裡，對吧，我們已經有了一個你要做的設定——就像你說的，我們在西雅圖和舊金山有一個更簡單的競爭。我有一個像洛杉磯這樣的市場，現在的租金比去年高，這是我們全年都沒有見過的情況。

So now you look at the October stats and you feel like you're pretty well visioned, but I've said before, right, the metrics are best viewed over a longer period of time versus kind of any stand-alone, especially kind of given the quantities.

所以現在你看看10 月份的統計數據，你會覺得自己很有遠見，但我之前說過，對吧，與任何獨立的指標相比，最好在更長的時間內查看這些指標，尤其是那種給定數量。

And like specific to the fourth quarter and like our assumptions for that blended rate growth between 75 and 125 basis point growth. We have fairly stable achieved renewal rate increases kind of expected, and we are allowing for some continued moderation of new lease change. But the setup right now in the first month, we still got two-thirds of the quarter to get through feels pretty good to us.

就像第四季的具體情況一樣，我們對混合成長率在 75 到 125 個基點之間的假設也是如此。我們已經實現了相當穩定的續租率成長，這符合預期，並且我們允許新租約變化繼續放緩。但目前第一個月的設置，我們仍然有本季三分之二的時間來完成，這對我們來說感覺相當不錯。

Yes. And Haendel, it's Mark. Just to add to that a little bit. This is a give-and-take type process. I mean we can get new lease rate to be a higher number by letting occupancy decline, and that may not benefit same-store revenue growth, which is our ultimate goal.

是的。韓德爾，是馬克。只是補充一點。這是一個給予和接受類型的過程。我的意思是，我們可以透過讓入住率下降來獲得更高的新租賃率，但這可能不利於同店收入成長，而同店收入成長是我們的最終目標。

So -- we're trying to make as much money as we can in the current quarter and have a nice setup for the next year. But just viewing one factor either in one month or in -- without context to the other ideas. If we were hurting on blended rate and hurting on occupancy. That would be a much more serious situation for us than what happened in September, which thus was just a blip around the average.

因此，我們正在努力在本季賺盡可能多的錢，並為明年做好準備。但只專注於一個月內或某段時間的一個因素，而沒有考慮其他想法的背景。如果我們在混合費率和入住率上受到傷害。對我們來說，這將是一個比 9 月發生的情況嚴重得多的情況，因此這只是平均水平的一個小插曲。

Got it. Got it. And then one on the Blackstone transaction. It looks like you guys used a bit more debt proportionately to fund that, I'm assuming capitalizing on lower debt costs, as you highlighted the unsecured issuance, but also the opportunity in your underlevered balance sheet.

知道了。知道了。然後是黑石交易。看來你們按比例使用了更多的債務來為其提供資金，我假設利用較低的債務成本，正如你們強調的無擔保發行，以及槓桿率不足的資產負債表中的機會。

So maybe can you talk about the appetite for using a bit more leverage to fund acquisitions in the near term? And then maybe some color on the IRR that you underwrote the Blackstone portfolio for.

那麼，也許您可以談談在短期內使用更多槓桿來為收購提供資金的意願嗎？然後，也許您為 Blackstone 投資組合承保的 IRR 會有一些顏色。

Yeah. So I'll start with the balance sheet, and then I'll pass it over to Alex to talk about the IRR. But we have an incredible, as you pointed out, incredibly underlevered and strong balance sheet. As you may recall, and as those on the call may recall, we have spent a long time frankly, warehousing capital looking for opportunities. And we warehouse capital by paying down debt.

是的。因此，我將從資產負債表開始，然後將其交給 Alex 來討論 IRR。但正如您所指出的，我們擁有令人難以置信的低槓桿率和強勁的資產負債表。你可能還記得，正如那些參加電話會議的人可能還記得，坦白說，我們花了很長時間，倉儲資金尋找機會。我們透過償還債務來儲存資本。

and going well below our own targeted kind of debt metrics of net debt to EBITDA of 5x to 6x. And so when the opportunity presented itself on Alex side, we catalyzed on that by using the debt capacity we had, and further capitalize on it by the fact that we were able to do so at a very attractive rate overall, particularly with the use of proceeds.

遠低於我們自己的目標債指標，即淨負債與 EBITDA 比率 5 至 6 倍。因此，當亞歷克斯方面出現機會時，我們會利用我們擁有的債務能力來催化這一點，並進一步利用它，因為我們能夠以總體上非常有吸引力的速度做到這一點，特別是透過使用收益。

So we think that there is a lot more capacity given where the metrics I just outlined and the fact that we're sitting at, call it, 4.6 times. And we would look to use that debt capacity to take advantage of opportunities that make good long-term sense to lock in a really good cost of capital and allow for P&L accretion over time.

因此，我們認為，考慮到我剛才概述的指標以及我們目前所處的事實，即 4.6 倍，還有更多的容量。我們希望利用這種債務能力來利用具有良好長期意義的機會，鎖定真正良好的資本成本，並隨著時間的推移實現損益增加。

And Haendel, in terms of IRR, we underwrite to an unlevered IRR, and then we compare it to our weighted average cost of capital. In this case, with that unlevered IRR was about an 8%, which at that time was in excess of the WACC at that point.

亨德爾，就 IRR 而言，我們承保無槓桿 IRR，然後將其與加權平均資本成本進行比較。在這種情況下，無槓桿 IRR 約為 8%，當時超過了 WACC。

Alexander Goldfarb, Piper Sandler.

亞歷山大·戈德法布，派珀·桑德勒。

Bob, maybe just sticking with the balance sheet for a minute. You guys are one of the REITs that's got an active CP program, obviously, you take advantage of the unsecured debt markets. Can you just walk us through the difference in the two programs as far as the underlying rate? And does using more CP impact your ability to -- the pricing that you get on unsecured? Or how about alternating between the two programs?

鮑勃，也許只關註一下資產負債表。你們是擁有活躍CP計畫的房地產投資信託基金之一，顯然，你們利用了無擔保債務市場。您能否向我們介紹一下這兩個計劃在基本利率上的差異？使用更多 CP 是否會影響您的無擔保定價能力？或者交替使用這兩個程序怎麼樣？

Yes. So I guess let me step back and make sure I got the question. But commercial paper for us is kind of short-term floating rate exposure that we use to deal with working capital cycles and working capital for us really means transaction volume.

是的。所以我想讓我退後一步，確保我明白了這個問題。但商業票據對我們來說是一種短期浮動利率風險敞口，我們用它來應對營運資金周期，而營運資金對我們來說實際上意味著交易量。

And so the CP program is -- we'll use a portion of it. We use it in the construct of our overall capital structure to balance how much floating rate we have, et cetera, and it much cheaper than our line of credit, right?

所以 CP 程式是－我們將使用它的一部分。我們在建立整體資本結構時使用它來平衡我們的浮動利率等等，而且它比我們的信貸額度便宜得多，對嗎？

So we can borrow at, call it, SOFR plus 20 basis points and the line of credit would be contractually SOFR plus 75 or so. But we're really toggling between short-term and long-term issuance when it comes to like the unsecured market by balancing a bunch of factors, right? How much floating rate exposure, what our liquidity profile look like, what does our maturity profile look like, what does the whole thing look like coupled together and balancing that out.

因此，我們可以以 SOFR 加 20 個基點的價格借款，並且按照合約規定，信貸額度將是 SOFR 加 75 個基點左右。但當我們透過平衡一系列因素來喜歡無擔保市場時，我們確實是在短期和長期發行之間切換，對嗎？浮動利率敞口有多少，我們的流動性狀況如何，我們的到期狀況如何，整個事情如何結合在一起並加以平衡。

And because we've done such a great job on the balance sheet over the years and extended our duration and have a lot of capacity to have some short-term usage and some long-term components, we can use a little bit of all pockets to reduce our aggregate cost of capital, which is the goal overall.

因為多年來我們在資產負債表上做得非常出色，並且延長了我們的期限，並且有很大的能力來擁有一些短期使用和一些長期組件，所以我們可以使用所有口袋中的一點來降低我們的總資本成本，這是總體目標。

Okay. And then second question is, you guys seem to be more hopeful on Seattle and San Francisco. Over the past few years, there have been a lot of companies that have announced return to office and it's fizzled out.

好的。第二個問題是，你們似乎對西雅圖和舊金山更有希望。這幾年，有很多公司宣布復工，但都以失敗告終。

And obviously, we've all been collectively hoping for a rebound of Seattle and San Fran for the past few years. What gives the team on the ground confidence that this time, the return-to-office mandates and some of the positiveness that you've seen in those two markets are actually finally truly taking hold versus this could be sort of a false start that we've seen before?

顯然，過去幾年我們都集體希望西雅圖和舊金山能反彈。是什麼讓現場團隊相信，這一次，重返辦公室的要求以及你在這兩個市場看到的一些積極情緒實際上終於真正佔據了主導地位，而這可能是一個錯誤的開始，我們認為這可能是一個錯誤的開始。

Yes. Alex, this is Michael. I could start off here. So first, I just spent a week in San Francisco, and you could feel it and the on-site teams will tell you just based on the prospects that are showing up for the tours some of that.

是的。亞歷克斯，這是麥可。我可以從這裡開始。首先，我剛剛在舊金山待了一周，你可以感覺到，現場團隊會根據參加巡迴演出的潛在客戶告訴你其中的一些內容。

So the migration patterns show people from further out coming back year in when they walk into the office, they're talking about the fact that they need to be back into the office for work several days a week, and that's driving a lot of their decisions.

因此，遷移模式表明，從更遠的地方回來的人們，當他們走進辦公室時，他們談論的是這樣一個事實：他們需要每周有幾天回到辦公室工作，這在很大程度上推動了他們的工作。

So it's still a little bit early, I would say, in San Francisco to feel it. But when you have the big company like Salesforce making that announcement, you see the activity in the ground and the office is from the prospect. A lot of the other peripheral companies start to follow some of those bigger tech companies. And this is probably the most serious we've seen them actually talk about all of this in the marketplace.

所以我想說，在舊金山感受到這一點還為時過早。但是，當像 Salesforce 這樣的大公司宣布這一消息時，您會看到現場的活動，而辦公室就是來自潛在客戶的。許多其他外圍公司開始效法一些較大的科技公司。這可能是我們在市場上看到的最嚴肅的討論。

Specific to Seattle, I'll tell you, we could see it like job postings from some of the major tech providers in that market are up in the city of Seattle, job hostings in Bellevue, Redmond are up. Our on-site team, we've been talking to them like every week for the past several weeks once that announcement came out.

具體到西雅圖，我會告訴你，我們可以看到，該市場中一些主要技術提供商的職位發佈在西雅圖市有所增加，貝爾維尤和雷蒙德的職位託管也有所增加。公告發布後，我們的現場團隊在過去幾週每週與他們交談。

And the Amazon employees are trying to get out in front of that January start date because they're concerned that there's going to be this pent-up demand coming in, and that either the rates or the availability of certain apartments won't be there in the marketplace.

亞馬遜的員工正試圖在 1 月開始日期之前離開，因為他們擔心將會出現這種被壓抑的需求，而某些公寓的價格或可用性不會出現在市場上。

So they're actually buying early from us. So we could see it right now, and Seattle just feels a little bit further along than San Francisco from that, and we feel like Amazon is really kind of serious about what they're saying to their teams.

所以他們實際上很早就從我們這裡購買了。所以我們現在就可以看到這一點，西雅圖感覺比舊金山走得更遠一些，我們覺得亞馬遜對於他們對球隊所說的話真的很認真。

And a little of this, Alex, it's Mark, is premised on our perspective, gleaned from the Moody's Analytics numbers for next year, that there's going to be some good job growth in the Bay Area in terms of office-using jobs.

亞歷克斯，我是馬克，其中的一點是基於我們從穆迪分析明年的數據中收集到的觀點，即灣區在使用辦公室的工作方面將會出現一些良好的增長。

The barriers shed a lot of tech jobs and the jobs that have been added in AI have not been sufficient to offset those jobs, but we're hopeful that, that reverses itself. So I think when you talk quality of light, Seattle is definitively better. I've been there recently as well, same thing. San Francisco is better but not quite as good.

這些障礙導致大量科技工作流失，而人工智慧領域新增的工作不足以抵銷這些工作崗位，但我們希望這種情況能夠逆轉。所以我認為當你談論光品質時，西雅圖絕對更好。我最近也去過那裡，同樣的情況。舊金山比較好，但也沒有那麼好。

I think L.A. is less advanced in quality-of-life considerations being addressed. And then you got this job overlay. And I think on the job overlay side, you feel pretty good about Seattle and you're feeling better about San Francisco and a little bit of what you saw in the third quarter for us was L.A. being a little sideways on jobs.

我認為洛杉磯在解決生活品質方面的考慮不夠先進。然後你就得到了這份工作覆蓋。我認為在就業方面，你對西雅圖感覺很好，對舊金山感覺更好，你在第三季度看到的一點是洛杉磯在就業方面有點不穩定。

So we do need that ingredient to come through for these markets to fully recover, but we feel that, we see that. Those are great industries, and I think they will attract and start to hire again if the economy keeps churning.

因此，我們確實需要這種成分才能使這些市場完全復甦，但我們感覺到，我們看到了這一點。這些都是偉大的行業，我認為如果經濟持續動盪，它們將再次吸引並開始招募。

John Pawlowski, Green Street

約翰‧帕夫洛夫斯基，格林街

Michael, I wanted to pick up on that conversation in Seattle. I'm just trying to help. Can you just frame it with some specific metrics, so we understand kind of the night and day difference. Just trying to get a sense of it's a surge of kind of foot traffic applicants or just a steady trickle post-Amazon announcement?

邁克爾，我想了解西雅圖的那次談話。我只是想幫忙。您能否用一些具體的指標來建構它，以便我們了解晝夜差異。只是想了解一下申請者的人流量是激增還是亞馬遜發佈公告後的穩定的涓流？

Well, I mean, I think we saw these trends in migration patterns even last quarter, and we did put some good details on Page 8 in the management presentation that talk about kind of not only that urban suburban mix, but what we're actually seeing the fact that concessions are down 40% year over year. But I think we've seen some of these migration patterns. We've heard some of this before from our new residents moving in.

嗯，我的意思是，我認為我們甚至在上個季度就看到了移民模式的這些趨勢，我們確實在管理演示文稿的第8 頁上提供了一些很好的細節，這些細節不僅討論了城市郊區的混合，還討論了我們實際上的情況看到優惠同比下降 40% 的事實。但我認為我們已經看到了其中一些遷移模式。我們之前從搬進來的新居民那裡聽說過一些這樣的事情。

And I think when you look at what the comp looks like, the comp line of our pricing trends for the fourth quarter, this time last year, we were issuing concessions, right? We had rents decelerating.

我認為，當你看看我們去年這個時候的第四季度定價趨勢的比較線時，我們正在做出讓步，對吧？我們的租金正在下降。

And right now, while you're still seeing some normal kind of rent deceleration there, the concession use is actually kind of abating or softening a little bit in the downtown kind of submarkets. So I think we're just seeing what we would describe as like the greenest shoots that we've seen and felt in a while.

現在，雖然你仍然看到一些正常的租金下降，但在市中心的子市場中，特許權的使用實際上有所減弱或軟化。所以我認為我們只是看到了我們一段時間以來所看到和感受到的最綠芽。

Okay. And then a question on L.A. in terms of the overhang on market vacancy and market rents from the eviction backlog, not just in your portfolio but surrounding competitors. What's your best sense of the inning we're in on that overhang on market fundamentals? And when do you think the Anvil on market rate and occupancy will finally be gone?

好的。然後是關於洛杉磯的問題，即驅逐積壓導致的市場空置和市場租金過剩，不僅在您的投資組合中，而且在周圍的競爭對手中。您對當前市場基本面懸而未決的局面有何最佳感受？您認為市場價格和入住率上的 Anvil 何時最終會消失？

Yes. So John, this is Michael. That's a hard thing to understand exactly when we think we'll be kind of back to normal. I feel like when you just look at the sheer number of quantities of kind of pending evictions in the marketplace that we have. We are more than kind of two-thirds of the way through kind of our backlog.

是的。約翰，這是麥可。當我們認為我們會恢復正常時，這是一件很難理解的事情。我覺得當你看看我們市場上待驅逐的數量之多時。我們的積壓工作已經完成了三分之二以上。

It was a positive sign for us to see that the duration dropped to four months from kind of the six-month average that we saw early in the quarter. but we really need to see another drop down to probably like two months for it to get back to like that normal swing of things.

對我們來說，看到持續時間從本季初看到的六個月平均值下降到四個月，這是一個積極的跡象。但我們確實需要看到另一次下降，可能需要兩個月左右的時間才能恢復正常的波動狀態。

So my guess is we think about our modeling for next year with L.A. besides some of those top line drivers that Mark just talked about, besides the fact that we have rents on top of prior year, we'll see how kind of how they hold up. We really are looking now at probably another couple of quarters of this pressure from this excess inventory in the market.

所以我的猜測是，我們會考慮明年與洛杉磯的模型，除了馬克剛才談到的一些頂級驅動因素之外，除了我們在上一年的基礎上還有租金這一事實之外，我們還會看看它們的表現如何向上。我們現在確實正在考慮市場庫存過剩帶來的壓力可能還會持續數季。

But when you look at the occupancy for the quarter, positive is that while we're getting some of this excess inventory occurring, we are able to rent those units out and we are getting new residents in that pay the rent. So that's a positive to us. It's just taking us a little bit longer to backfill some of those units than you otherwise would have had in normal market conditions.

但是，當您查看本季度的入住率時，您會發現積極的一面是，雖然我們出現了一些過剩庫存，但我們能夠將這些單位出租出去，並且我們正在吸引新居民支付租金。所以這對我們來說是積極的。只是我們回填其中一些單元所需的時間比正常市場條件下要長一些。

John Kim, BMO Capital Markets.

約翰金 (John Kim)，BMO 資本市場。

You talked about the net migration trends being favorable to Seattle and San Francisco. Where are the residents coming from? Is this a reversal of the Sunbelt migration you've seen in the last few years?

您談到淨移民趨勢對西雅圖和舊金山有利。居民來自哪裡？這是您過去幾年看到的陽光地帶遷徙的逆轉嗎？

Yes. John, it's Michael. So it's not so much the migration is happening or in migrations happening from out of state. What we're seeing is the migration patterns are shifting from being 20-plus miles out coming near in. So it could even be within the same MSA, they're coming near or in to us.

是的。約翰，這是麥可。因此，與其說是正在發生遷移，不如說是從州外發生遷移。我們看到的是，遷徙模式正在從20多英里之外轉向近處。所以它甚至可能在同一個 MSA 內，它們正在接近或接近我們。

So that's another source of demand for us. You are seeing kind of some out-of-state in migration occur, but it's still not back to like what we saw in like the pre-pandemic era. We're still slightly elevated from getting more of our new residents from within the MSA.

這是我們的另一個需求來源。你會看到一些州外的移民發生，但它仍然沒有回到我們在大流行前時代看到的那樣。從 MSA 內部吸收更多新居民，我們的處境仍然略有改善。

Okay. My second question is on the Blackstone acquisition. I realize it's immediately accretive to earnings. You bought it below replacement costs. But the operating environment in your expansion markets are going backwards, maybe more quicker than you anticipated. Could you have waited on acquiring assets in these markets given NOI is going negative in some of these markets?

好的。我的第二個問題是關於黑石收購案。我意識到這會立即增加收入。您以低於重置成本的價格購買了它。但您的擴張市場的營運環境正在倒退，也許比您預期的要快。鑑於其中一些市場的 NOI 為負值，您是否可以等待在這些市場收購資產？

Yes. It's Mark. Boy, I wish we were that present. We've talked before on the trade-off here, you're going to get some weaker gross rental growth numbers, but you're going to get a better price now and then we'll likely continue to be a buyer, and you'll probably pay a higher price and you'll have less of that rental growth weakness.

是的。是馬克。男孩，我希望我們就是那份禮物。我們之前已經討論過這裡的權衡，你會得到一些較弱的總租金增長數字，但你現在會得到更好的價格，然後我們可能會繼續成為買家，而你可能會支付更高的價格，且租金成長的疲軟程度也會減輕。

Frankly, it's very, very early on that deal, but everything is tracking very consistently to be better than our numbers in a pro forma. So again, the Sunbelt is weak, we expected it to be weak. Those are pretty well exactly as weak as we thought they'd be. And again, we do run things differently.

坦白說，這筆交易還處於非常非常早期的階段，但一切都在持續跟踪，比我們的預期數據要好。因此，陽光地帶很弱，我們預計它會很弱。這些和我們想像的一樣弱。再說一遍，我們的運作方式確實不同。

Michael is an excellent operator, and he and his team, there are things we can do better in terms of delinquency management and vacancy management that even if rents are going down, we can underwrite, and we see those sorts of improvements. So I guess I don't have any regrets about the timing because I think your dollar cost little into this I think we really love our basis here with that kind of replacement cost discount.

麥可是一位出色的經營者，他和他的團隊，在拖欠管理和空置管理方面我們可以做得更好，即使租金下降，我們也可以承保，我們看到了這些改進。所以我想我對這個時機沒有任何遺憾，因為我認為你的美元成本很低，我認為我們真的很喜歡我們在這裡的基礎，並且具有這種重置成本折扣。

And I think in a few quarters, you're going to start to see some improvement in the second derivative in the Sunbelt, but it's going to take a while for our big three Sunbelt markets to see significant improvement in same-store revenue. We did assume that would take a little bit longer.

我認為在幾個季度內，您將開始看到陽光地帶的二階導數有所改善，但我們的三大陽光地帶市場需要一段時間才能看到同店收入的顯著改善。我們確實認為這需要更長的時間。

And John, it's Alex. We are in just those specific Sunbelt markets, two when you think of Denver being outside the Sunbelt, not in some of the markets that are just seeing massively historic amounts of oversupply.

約翰，是亞歷克斯。我們只是在那些特定的陽光地帶市場，當你想到丹佛在陽光地帶之外時，這兩個市場，而不是在一些剛剛出現歷史性的大規模供應過剩的市場中。

So our -- we feel like there's a little more digestible over time. We are not -- we have not been buying in Austin as an example, where we do have three properties, but we're standing pat because the amount of supply is just sold for whaling.

所以我們覺得隨著時間的推移，事情會變得更容易消化。我們沒有——以奧斯汀為例，我們沒有購買，在那裡我們確實擁有三處房產，但我們保持不變，因為供應量只是為了捕鯨而出售。

Michael Goldsmith, UBS.

麥可‧戈德史密斯，瑞銀集團。

This is Ami on for Michael. Have you been seeing the same in-migration trends for the East Coast markets as you've been seeing in the Seattle or San Francisco?

這是阿米為麥可代言的。您是否在東岸市場看到了與西雅圖或舊金山相同的移民趨勢？

Ami, this is Michael. So really, when you look across the East Coast markets, our migration patterns are very much in line with pre-pandemic kind of norms, both from how we're actually attaining new residents and we also watch when residents leave us where are they going, both the out migration and the immigration patterns across those East Coast markets very much in line with historical norms that we saw back in '17, '18, and '19.

阿米，這是麥可。所以說真的，當你縱觀東岸市場時，我們的移民模式非常符合疫情前的規範，無論是從我們如何實際吸引新居民，還是從居民離開我們去往何處的角度來看。 ，東岸市場的出境移民和移民模式都非常符合我們在17 年、18 年和19 年看到的歷史規範。

Okay. And then one on bad debt. How are the bad debt new levels of bad debt, so for new residents coming in the door, bad debt levels presidents trending? Is this in line with historical or elevated below normal?

好的。然後是壞帳。壞帳新水準如何？這符合歷史還是低於正常水平？

Yes, it's Bob. So in terms of new entrants from a bad debt standpoint, it's very wise. So it's normalized back to pre-pandemic levels. So the quantity of non-paying residents that are coming in the front door, has very much normalized back to new -- to pre-pandemic levels. The thing you have to keep in mind and the thing that we keep in mind as we manage this is that if eviction processes take longer, each one of those quantity of people actually still cost more.

是的，是鮑伯。因此，從壞帳的角度來看，對於新進入者而言，這是非常明智的。因此它已正常化回大流行前的水平。因此，進入前門的非付費居民數量已基本恢復到新的——大流行前的水平。你必須記住的一件事，以及我們在處理這個問題時要記住的一件事是，如果驅逐過程需要更長的時間，那麼每個人的成本實際上仍然更高。

So we have a bunch of initiatives and technology that we utilize to try to actually make it lower than normal to the extent that we think the eviction process is going to be extended. But in terms of quality of resident kind of getting at that level, it's still a high quality, still low percentage of people coming through that don't pay.

因此，我們採取了一系列措施和技術，試圖實際使其低於正常水平，以至於我們認為驅逐過程將會延長。但就達到該水準的居民品質而言，仍然是高品質的，但不付費的人比例仍然很低。

Nick Yulico, Scotiabank.

尼克尤利科，豐業銀行。

It's [Daniel Tucker] along with Nick. Maybe following up on John's question from earlier. Alex, how are you underwriting rent growth on new acquisitions today in those higher supply markets? And I think you mentioned flat in the first year or two, but that probably assumes some high growth in the out year. So curious how you were maybe just generally private market players are baking in that rent growth to get the IRR math to work?

這是[丹尼爾·塔克]和尼克。也許是在跟進約翰之前的問題。亞歷克斯，您如何在這些供應較高的市場中承擔今天新收購的租金成長？我想你提到的第一年或第二年持平，但這可能是假設未來一年會有一些高成長。你很好奇，也許一般的私人市場參與者是如何利用租金成長來讓 IRR 數學發揮作用的？

Daniel, it's Alex. So every property is a little different, but certainly, all three markets are seeing higher than historic supply. So over -- across the board, the first year has always been less, a little bit less than what the prior year was. The second year is maybe flattish to a little bit less. But part of that is offset by operating efficiencies that we have from our platform and other income that we're layering in.

丹尼爾，是亞歷克斯。因此，每個房產都略有不同，但可以肯定的是，所有三個市場的供應量都高於歷史供應量。所以總的來說，第一年總是比前一年少一點點。第二年可能比較平淡甚至下降。但其中一部分被我們平台的營運效率和其他我們分層的收入所抵消。

So the net-net is an improvement by the end of the second year. And then we do think that in years three and four, we will see outsized growth. So if you thought the historic norm might be 3%, 3.5%, I think 4.5% is going to be highly achievable. And so we do factor that in -- depending a little bit on the approximate supply for each asset, but that's generally the trend that we show.

因此，到第二年年底，淨值有所改善。然後我們確實認為在第三年和第四年，我們將看到巨大的成長。因此，如果你認為歷史標準可能是 3%、3.5%，那麼我認為 4.5% 是非常容易實現的。因此，我們確實將這一點考慮在內——稍微取決於每種資產的大致供應量，但這通常是我們顯示的趨勢。

I appreciate that. And then I had a follow-up maybe for Mark. Just wanted to ask your high-level thinking on the election, different legislative things. Are there different -- like what are the variables maybe you're focused on? Maybe what's less topical now? And do you think maybe could be more topical next week or next year?

我很欣賞這一點。然後我可能會對馬克進行後續行動。只是想問一下您對選舉、不同立法議題的高層思考。有什麼不同嗎—例如您可能關注的變數是什麼？也許現在不太熱門的是什麼？您認為下週或明年可能會更受關注嗎？

Yes. Thanks for that question. I mean, of course, the federal election is getting a lot of notice. I will say state and local government is generally more impactful to our business. And so most of our focus and the industry's focus has been on PROP 33 in California, and we've been very active there, and we remain optimistic that Californians will reject for the third time this sort of anti-housing rent control proposal. So that is certainly topical.

是的。謝謝你提出這個問題。我的意思是，當然，聯邦選舉受到了很多關注。我想說的是，州和地方政府通常對我們的業務影響更大。因此，我們和業界的大部分焦點都集中在加州的 33 號提案上，我們在那裡一直非常活躍，我們仍然樂觀地認為加州人將第三次拒絕這種反房屋租金管制提案。所以這肯定是熱門話題。

Depending on the President, there is a difference in approach there. The federal government has important levers it can pull in terms of the GSEs, Fannie and Freddie, and how they put capital into the market and FHA and HUD as well. So I guess that's an impact. So we'll have to see all that settle out.

根據總統的不同，做法也有所不同。聯邦政府在政府支持企業、房利美和房地美以及他們如何將資金投入市場以及聯邦住房管理局和住房和城市發展方面擁有重要的槓桿。所以我想這是一個影響。所以我們必須看到一切都解決。

And then, of course, whoever is President will inherit some challenging budget circumstances, and we'll see how that impacts things like the voucher programs, expansions of the which is the low income housing program.

當然，無論誰當選總統，都將繼承一些具有挑戰性的預算環境，我們將看到這如何影響優惠券計劃、低收入住房計劃的擴張等。

Middle income housing tax credit program in the industry is advocating for. So there's a lot of topics on the table that I hope in a week, we know a little bit more certainty. But the main discussions that the industry is having right now and the main focus are the state ballot initiative in California.

中等收入住房稅收抵免計劃是業界所倡導的。因此，我希望一週內有很多話題擺在桌面上，我們會知道更多的確定性。但該行業目前正在進行的主要討論和主要焦點是加州的州投票倡議。

And we've had some terrific lock across the country in the last year or so, whether it's the Massachusetts housing bill, which was very supply focused, very much trying to generate affordable housing, whether it's in Florida, a very different government there, of course, their housing bill, which again focused on supply and zoning reform, California, transit-oriented development, Governor is focused on.

去年左右，我們在全國各地都遇到了一些可怕的鎖定，無論是馬薩諸塞州的住房法案，該法案非常注重供應，非常努力創造經濟適用房，無論是在佛羅裡達州，那裡的政府非常不同，當然，他們的住房法案再次聚焦於供應和分區改革，加州州長則專注於交通導向發展。

So I think everyone gets the message about supply being a solution. I think the industry has just got to push that, whether it's the federal or state level, as well as voucher enhancement in public-private partnerships like 421-a and the BTI program in Seattle and things like that.

所以我認為每個人都明白供應是解決方案的訊息。我認為該行業必須推動這一點，無論是聯邦還是州一級，以及公私合作夥伴關係中的優惠券增強，例如 421-a 和西雅圖的 BTI 計劃等。

So again, I think we're going to have a great dialogue when the smoke clears, but for a week or maybe a little longer, there's going to be a little uncertainty.

再說一次，我認為當硝煙散去時，我們將進行一次很好的對話，但在一周或更長時間內，將會存在一些不確定性。

Adam Kramer, Morgan Stanley.

亞當‧克萊默，摩根士丹利。

Great. I wanted to ask maybe a couple of quick ones. Where is the loss to lease in the portfolio today? And where are you sending out renewals for November, December here?

偉大的。我想問幾個簡單的問題。今天投資組合中的租賃損失在哪裡？你們在哪裡發送 11 月、12 月的續約？

Adam, this is Michael. So first, I'll just start off. So the loss to lease -- and maybe I'll just back up. So at the beginning of the year, we actually started in a moderate gain to lease position at about 60 basis points. And then as that pricing can kind of improve kind of we moved ourselves back into a loss to lease position.

亞當，這是麥可。首先，我將開始。所以租賃損失——也許我會支持。因此，在今年年初，我們實際上開始以大約 60 個基點的適度漲幅來租賃部位。然後，隨著定價的提高，我們又回到了租賃虧損的情況。

As of kind of the middle of the month, October 15, we were in a slight gain to lease of about 10 basis points which, again, it kind of tells us that we're going to wind up at the end of the year in a normal range. Because any given year, you can start in a slight gain or a slight loss to lease position, but that's kind of where we're positioned right now.

截至 10 月 15 日中旬，我們的租賃價格略有上漲約 10 個基點，這再次告訴我們，我們將在年底結束正常範圍。因為任何一年，您都可以從租賃頭寸的輕微收益或輕微損失開始，但這就是我們現在的定位。

We do have a little bit of that easier comp in the fourth quarter in a couple of these markets. So we'll see kind of how that plays into the final year-end number. In terms of the renewals, right now, our quotes are out in the marketplace for the next 90 days.

我們在第四季在其中幾個市場確實有一些更容易的競爭。因此，我們將看看這對最終的年終數字有何影響。就續約而言，目前我們的報價已在市場上發布未來 90 天的報價。

We still expect to continue to renew a high percentage of our residents. We put some stats in there. We've been really focused on that, the customer service side of the business and leveraging our centralized team.

我們仍然期望繼續為我們的居民提供高比例的續約。我們在那裡放了一些統計數據。我們一直非常專注於業務的客戶服務方面並利用我們的集中團隊。

With the quotes that are out in the marketplace that are around a 6.5% or 7%, we expect to achieve around a 4.7% renewal increase, or a little bit better because, obviously, if the markets continue to improve some of those West Coast markets, we have the ability to kind of dial down some of the negotiations that we're doing, which could produce a little bit higher results in the quarter for us.

鑑於市場上的報價約為 6.5% 或 7%，我們預計續訂增幅將達到 4.7% 左右，或者會好一點，因為顯然，如果西海岸市場繼續改善的話市場方面，我們有能力減少正在進行的一些談判，這可能會在本季為我們帶來更高的業績。

Great. That's really helpful, Michael. And just maybe switching gears on kind of external growth, maybe a two-parter here. I guess first part is just when you're thinking about dispositions going forward, which markets are you focused on? And then the second part of that is, obviously, pretty quite here with this large portfolio. Is there more to come? And if so, is it kind of more on the one-off side of things? Or is there the potential for kind of further portfolio opportunities here?

偉大的。這真的很有幫助，邁克爾。也許只是改變外部成長的方式，也許是兩個部分。我想第一部分是當您考慮未來的配置時，您關注哪些市場？顯然，第二部分非常適合這個龐大的投資組合。還有更多嗎？如果是這樣，這是否更像是一次性的事情？或者這裡是否有可能存在進一步的投資機會？

Adam, it's Alex. First, on the dispo question. As we've talked about in the past, we are focused on decreasing the exposure in California, and we've done that recently, and we'll continue to do that. We'd also decreased more in the urban core of a couple of other cities as well outside of California. It's just not a great bid right now for that yet.

亞當，是亞歷克斯。首先，關於處置問題。正如我們過去談到的，我們專注於減少加州的暴露，我們最近已經做到了這一點，我們將繼續這樣做。我們還減少了其他幾個城市的市中心以及加州以外的地區的數量。只是目前還不是一個很好的出價。

But we're starting to hear requests for information about properties. We're talking to people who are kind of taking a contrarian view. But as you know, we're never in a position where we have to sell something. So we're just kind of waiting for the market to come to us a little bit on that.

但我們開始聽到房產資訊的請求。我們正在與持相反觀點的人交談。但如您所知，我們從來沒有處於必須出售某些東西的境地。因此，我們只是在等待市場對此的反應。

But I think you'll see us continue to spread our footprint into these expansion markets and then within our coastal markets become more -- a little bit more suburban than we are right now.

但我認為你會看到我們繼續將我們的足跡擴展到這些擴張市場，然後在我們的沿海市場中變得比現在更郊區化。

So a little more urban but brought the market to come to us a little bit, and we have the ability to sell other assets while we're waiting for that to happen. In terms of the one-offs versus portfolios, we're out there trying to create opportunity every day.

因此，城市化程度更高，但也讓市場更接近我們，我們有能力在等待這種情況發生的同時出售其他資產。就一次性投資與投資組合而言，我們每天都在努力創造機會。

That's how the Blackstone deal came about, and we're talking to any of the major developers or owners and we would love to do business and volume. And if not, we'll keep doing the one-offs, but we expect to be able to find more opportunities like the Blackstone deal.

這就是黑石交易的由來，我們正在與任何主要開發商或業主進行交談，我們很樂意開展業務和擴大規模。如果沒有，我們將繼續做一次性的事情，但我們希望能夠找到更多像黑石交易這樣的機會。

Josh Dennerlein, Bank of America.

喬許‧丹納林，美國銀行。

I just wanted to follow up on one of the opening remarks about the resident AI rollout and how you're going to get to 75%, 80% coverage pretty shortly. I guess -- just how should we think about the benefits of this rollout impacting the P&L? And then maybe any thoughts on potential margin improvement opportunity here?

我只是想跟進關於居民人工智慧推廣的開場白之一，以及如何很快達到 75%、80% 的覆蓋率。我想——我們該如何考慮這次推出對損益表的影響？那麼也許對潛在的利潤改善機會有什麼想法？

Josh, this is Michael. So maybe I'll start with the first one and just talk about like what we're doing. So we were early pioneers of kind of leverage to our leasing process. We did that back in 2019. And you saw that benefit almost immediately in the reduction of on-site kind of payroll or mitigating payroll growth on site as we continue to centralize a lot of those kind of customer experiences.

喬什，這是邁克爾。所以也許我會從第一個開始，談談我們正在做的事情。因此，我們是租賃流程槓桿的早期先驅。我們在 2019 年就這麼做了。隨著我們繼續集中許多此類客戶體驗，您幾乎立即看到了減少現場工資或減輕現場工資增長的好處。

Right now, in this last quarter, what we're doing is we're actually rolling out an AI tool that deals with resident inquiries -- questions that residents have not necessarily prospects. And what we hope to see with that is that as these kind of machine learning applications get in there, they get better and better.

現在，在最後一個季度，我們正在做的是，我們實際上正在推出一種人工智慧工具，用於處理居民詢問——居民不一定有前景的問題。我們希望看到的是，隨著此類機器學習應用程式的出現，它們會變得越來越好。

Out of the box, we started with like 60% coverage of being able to answer inquiries from our residents. We think over the next couple of quarters, we'll get to that 75%, 80%. And really, what you get then is you get another layer of operating efficiencies, whether that's the on-site side, where we're able to kind of pot or flex staff across multiple properties even further than what we've already done or you start looking into our centralized teams and you say where can we create efficiencies there so we could take on new tasks.

一開始，我們的覆蓋率約為 60%，能夠回答居民的詢問。我們認為在接下來的幾個季度中，我們將達到 75%、80%。事實上，您將獲得另一層營運效率，無論是現場方面，我們都能夠在多個物業中安排或靈活安排員工，甚至比我們已經做的或您做的更進一步開始研究我們的集中式團隊，你會說我們可以在哪裡提高效率，以便我們可以承擔新的任務。

So we're really excited. And again, this is something that we're never done with, but you're seeing some of these applications come to the market that really do have a pretty quick impact on the operations of the company. And the second part of your question, I just want to make sure I understood. Were you talking about like market upside?

所以我們真的很興奮。再說一遍，這是我們從未完成的事情，但您會看到其中一些應用程式進入市場，確實對公司的營運產生了相當快的影響。你問題的第二部分，我只是想確保我理解。您是在談論市場上漲嗎？

No. I guess, sorry, just like margin expansion opportunity across the portfolio, it seems like this might generate some expense savings. So just trying to think about the opportunity set here?

不。我想，抱歉，就像整個投資組合的利潤擴張機會一樣，這似乎可能會節省一些費用。那麼只是想想想這裡設置的機會嗎？

Yeah. I'm not sure, it's Mark. How much margin improvement as much as it is just blunting the rate of inflation? I mean you've got a fair bit of growth of just various costs. I mean just break payroll as well as medical and the rest of it. And I think what you've seen us do is kind of hold those costs to sub-inflationary levels.

是的。我不確定，是馬克。利潤率改善多少與僅僅抑制通貨膨脹率一樣多？我的意思是，各種成本都有相當大的成長。我的意思是只取消工資單以及醫療和其他部分。我認為我們所做的就是將這些成本控制在低於通貨膨脹的水平。

And when we do that and we grow revenue, that's the margin improvement. But again, we seek to be closer to 70% better in that number, but a little bit of this is just being -- and I think Bob Garechana said it well on the last call, whatever you think inflation is, we're a little bit below it. And this is part of that sort of effort.

當我們這樣做並增加收入時，這就是利潤率的提高。但同樣，我們力求在這個數字上接近70%，但這只是一點點——我認為鮑勃·加雷查納(Bob Garechana) 在上次電話會議上說得很好，無論你認為通膨是什麼，我們都是一個下面一點點。這是此類努力的一部分。

Julien Blouin, Goldman Sachs.

朱利安布盧因，高盛。

Bob, you talked about an openness to continue to deploy leverage capacity here. Maybe, I guess, bigger picture, I get the geographic mix reasons for the acquisitions. Why does now feel like the right time to be deploying your leverage capacity into acquisitions when maybe the spread between cap rates and your cost of debt remains at some of the tightest levels in maybe the last decade?

鮑勃，您談到了繼續在這裡部署槓桿能力的開放態度。我想，也許從更大的角度來看，我了解了收購的地理組合原因。當上限利率和債務成本之間的利差可能仍處於過去十年來最嚴格的水平時，為什麼現在感覺是將槓桿能力部署到收購中的最佳時機？

Interesting. It's Mark. I'm going to start, and Alex may add to it. Cap rates aren't the only inputs to this calculus. I mean replacement cost is really important, too.

有趣的。是馬克。我要開始了，亞歷克斯可能會補充。資本化率並不是這項計算的唯一輸入。我的意思是更換成本也非常重要。

And as we've said on prior calls, the replacement cost thing isn't just about buying an asset at a good basis, it means that's unlikely to be a lot of supply there because it's not an economic incentive to build. So there is, in our minds, probably much better revenue growth prospects especially in the outer years, as Alex just described, years three and four than what we've underwritten.

正如我們在先前的電話會議中所說，重置成本不僅僅是以良好的基礎購買資產，這意味著那裡不太可能有大量供應，因為這不是建設的經濟誘因。因此，在我們看來，收入成長前景可能要好得多，尤其是在外部年份，正如亞歷克斯剛剛描述的那樣，第三年和第四年比我們承保的要好得多。

And so that's a little bit of what we're buying as well here. In terms of the spread between our cost of funds and the disposition assets and the like. You also have to think about CapEx.

這也是我們在這裡購買的一些東西。就我們的資金成本和處置資產之間的利差等而言。您還必須考慮資本支出。

The assets we're buying generally are pretty new and have relatively little capital. You saw us sell and we'll continue to sell these much older assets with a bigger capital load. So when you think about AFFO kind of yields, those are better, then they look on the surface on the FFO side. So I think there's a few things going on here.

我們購買的資產通常都很新，資本相對較少。您看到我們出售了，我們將繼續出售這些具有更大資本負擔的舊資產。因此，當您考慮 AFFO 類型的收益率時，這些收益會更好，然後從表面上看 FFO 方面。所以我認為這裡發生了一些事情。

And I also say apartments are such a desirable and liquid asset class, the idea that you're going to get like you do in some other sectors that are less well owned these gaps between your cost of capital and what you can invest at. That's just not realistic. We just don't see that happen often or at all in the last, I guess, almost date.

我還說，公寓是一種非常理想的流動性資產類別，你會像在其他一些不太擁有良好資產的行業一樣，獲得資本成本與可投資資產之間的差距。那是不現實的。我想，我們只是在最近的約會中很少或根本沒有看到這種情況發生。

So I guess I'd end with that comment that, that sort of view would be great if it happened. But I think some other sectors have that happen a lot more, and that means that frankly, they don't trade very well in the private market. And our assets do trade really well in our super liquid, and that means they tend to compress to the cost of capital more quickly.

所以我想我會以這樣的評論結束：如果這種觀點發生的話那就太好了。但我認為其他一些行業發生的情況要多得多，坦白說，這意味著它們在私人市場上的交易不太好。我們的資產在超級流動性下的交易確實非常好，這意味著它們往往會更快地壓縮資本成本。

Got it. And maybe sort of thinking about the other potential use of capital development. I know your view sort of over an entire cycle that acquisitions produced sort of better risk-adjusted returns on your capital. But I guess at this point in the cycle, why not maybe tilt more aggressively towards developments? I know you expect to complete $780 million in '24 and '25. But I guess, why not sort of bring that a little bit higher?

知道了。也許也考慮了資本開發的其他潛在用途。我知道您在整個週期中的看法是，收購會為您的資本帶來更好的風險調整回報。但我想在這個週期的這一點上，為什麼不更積極地傾向於發展呢？我知道您預計在 24 年和 25 年完成 7.8 億美元。但我想，為什麼不把它提高一點呢？

Julien, it's Alex. The markets that we're particularly interested in like Denver, Dallas and Atlanta have all the supply coming. So sure, we could look at building into those markets. But I'm not really sure that that's the most best risk-adjusted return that we're going to get when you look at the amount of opportunity we're going to have to kind of cherry big properties that really work well for us.

朱利安，是亞歷克斯。我們特別感興趣的市場，如丹佛、達拉斯和亞特蘭大，供應充足。當然，我們可以考慮進軍這些市場。但我不確定這是否是我們將獲得的最好的風險調整回報，當你看看我們將擁有多少對我們來說真正運作良好的櫻桃大型地產的機會。

So our development instead is focused on places where we don't see those buying opportunities. That's why you saw us with starts in suburban Seattle and suburban Boston, where we looked historically at how hard it was to amass a portfolio with one-off acquisitions.

因此，我們的發展重點是那些我們看不到購買機會的地方。這就是為什麼你會看到我們在西雅圖郊區和波士頓郊區起步，我們從歷史上看，透過一次性收購來累積投資組合是多麼困難。

Jamie Feldman, Wells Fargo.

傑米·費爾德曼，富國銀行。

I know we've covered a lot of ground here. I guess, just thinking about insurance, I know your renewal doesn't come up until March, but can you give us any initial thoughts just where you think property insurance or commercial property insurance rates are heading and what your conversations --

我知道我們已經討論了很多內容。我想，就保險而言，我知道您的續保要到三月才會到來，但是您能否給我們一些初步想法，您認為財產保險或商業財產保險費率的走向以及您的談話內容--

Jamie, it's Mark. Coincidently, I was just talking to the risk management team yesterday about that. So our renewal on our property is done in March of each year. And just to remind everyone, our increase was [7%] year-over-year, and that included us enhancing increasing our coverage a bit as well. So we had a pretty good renewal we thought.

傑米，是馬克。巧合的是，我昨天才剛和風險管理團隊討論過這件事。因此，我們的財產更新是在每年三月完成的。只是提醒大家，我們的年增幅為 [7%]，其中也包括我們稍微提高了覆蓋範圍。所以我們認為我們有一個很好的更新。

And however, we didn't have those giant renewals, a lot of the folks with more hurricane exposure. We don't own in places that have windstorm risk, so that's a huge benefit to us.

然而，我們並沒有進行大規模的續約，許多人面臨更多的颶風風險。我們不在有風暴風險的地方擁有房產，所以這對我們來說是一個巨大的優勢。

But having spoken through our risk management team to ensure the two big stores this year, people don't feel will have a big impact on '25 renewals at this point because the insurers had apparently relatively little exposure to Helene, and that was triggered on Milton, which could be $1 billion of insurance losses was within what they thought they would underwrite to.

但是，在透過我們的風險管理團隊確保今年兩家大型商店的安全後，人們認為此時不會對 25 續保產生重大影響，因為保險公司顯然對 Helene 的敞口相對較少，而這是在Milton 的保險損失可能達到10 億美元，這在他們認為可以承保的範圍內。

So it appears to us that the insurers was mostly prepared for what occurred. I can't give you an exact number because we're still rolling up budgets. But we don't see yet -- we're not hearing from insurers that this is like after Hurricane and where there's sort of a catastrophic increase in insurance rates coming across the whole property sector.

因此，在我們看來，保險公司基本上已經為所發生的事情做好了準備。我無法給你確切的數字，因為我們仍在增加預算。但我們還沒有看到——我們沒有從保險公司那裡聽到這就像颶風過後一樣，整個房地產行業的保險費率出現了災難性的增長。

Okay. And then I guess just quickly for Bob, the debt coming due in '25, any initial thought on timing of when you'll try to get after that?

好的。然後我想鮑伯很快就會知道，債務將於 25 年到期，您對之後何時嘗試償還債務的時間有什麼初步想法嗎？

Yes. So we have about $500 million coming due, as you mentioned, in 2025, which is kind of in the middle of the year. So we'll look at the market opportunistically. $500 million for a company of our size, our liquidity, our credit rating is not particularly large. So really, we'll just be opportunistic at how we that cost is.

是的。因此，正如您所提到的，我們將在 2025 年（也就是年中）到期支付約 5 億美元。因此，我們將機會主義地看待市場。對於我們這樣規模的公司來說，5億美元，我們的流動性，我們的信用評級並不是特別大。所以說真的，我們只會對成本的情況採取機會主義態度。

And we have a lot of -- like I mentioned in response to some other questions. We have a lot of variables that we can pull in terms of tenor, in terms of size, in terms of all of that stuff and the maturity is in June, by the way. But we have a lot of -- just a lot of leverage and a lot of excellent access to capital in the mix of tools that we can use. So very manageable.

正如我在回答其他一些問題時提到的那樣，我們有很多。我們有很多變數可以調整，包括期限、規模、所有這些內容，順便說一句，成熟期是在六月。但我們在可以使用的工具組合中擁有很多——大量的槓桿作用和大量獲得資本的絕佳途徑。所以非常容易管理。

Are there any types of instruments that look particularly interesting to you now?

現在您對哪些類型的樂器特別感興趣？

It's so volatile lately that it changes almost on a daily basis. Like the 10-year $600 million that wasn't that long ago that we did in September, when we kind of bottomed ticked the treasury of [3.75]. That the 10-year look great, the spreads were low, and it was great.

最近它的波動性很大，幾乎每天都在變化。就像不久前我們在 9 月所做的 10 年期 6 億美元債券一樣，當時我們的國庫已經觸底。[3.75]。10 年期公債看起來很棒，利差很低，而且很棒。

As the curve steepens, obviously, maybe a little bit of shorter tenders begin to become engine right because you've got you're getting paid for that. And because our duration is so long and because we've got some 30 years outstanding, et cetera, we can take advantage of that.

顯然，隨著曲線變陡，也許一些較短的招標開始成為正確的引擎，因為你已經為此得到了報酬。因為我們的持續時間很長，而且我們還有大約 30 年的傑出經驗，等等，我們可以利用這一點。

And to be honest with you, we also have -- our target for floating rate exposure is around 15%. We're under that right now. And if the Fed does start cutting more aggressively, doesn't look like they will now, but they might it doesn't hurt to have a little bit of floating rate exposure, too. So it's a little bit of -- it's good to have options.

老實說，我們的浮動利率目標是 15% 左右。我們現在就在這個之下。如果聯準會確實開始更大幅度地降息，看起來現在不會，但擁有一點浮動利率敞口可能也沒什麼壞處。所以有一點——有選擇是件好事。

And I think we have a lot of options in seems like with the volatility in the markets right now that every day, something new is more interesting than it was the day before, and we'll have to see as we get closer to what the opportunity looks like.

我認為，隨著市場的波動，我們現在有很多選擇，每天都有新的東西比前一天更有趣，當我們越來越接近市場時，我們必須看到機會看起來像。

Linda Tsai, Jefferies.

琳達·蔡，杰弗里斯。

Sorry, if this question has been asked already. Is there a sense of when new lease spreads get more positive?

抱歉，如果這個問題已經被問過。新租賃利差何時會變得更正面？

Yes. Linda, this is Michael. So the new lease spreads, there's a lot of seasonality that goes into that. And I think what you should expect, and we said this in the prepared remarks. And you can kind of look at Page 5 in that management presentation to understand how pricing trend curves throughout the year.

是的。琳達，這是麥可。因此，新的租約會擴展，其中存在著許多季節性因素。我認為你應該期待什麼，我們在準備好的發言中說了這一點。您可以查看該管理簡報中的第 5 頁，以了解全年的定價趨勢曲線。

But as we typically will start, we will decelerate in the fourth quarter with those spreads then you start into the first year, you'll start to get some acceleration -- positive new lease spread somewhere in that kind of later first part of the first quarter.

But as we typically will start, we will decelerate in the fourth quarter with those spreads then you start into the first year, you'll start to get some acceleration -- positive new lease spread somewhere in that kind of later first part of the first四分之一.

Alex Kim, Zelman & Associates.

亞歷克斯·金（Alex Kim），Zelman & Associates。

I'm going to piggyback off Julian's second question a bit here. Can you talk through what you're seeing in your expansion markets that makes them so attractive on a long-term system then. I guess, just any other markets that you're looking at that fit that criteria as well?

我將在這裡順便提一下朱利安的第二個問題。您能否談談您在擴張市場中看到的情況，這些因素使它們對長期系統如此有吸引力。我想，您正在尋找的其他市場也符合標準嗎？

Alex, it's Alex. We're really following our customer. We see these high-tech jobs in marketplaces that didn't use to have them in volume like Denver, Dallas and Atlanta an example. And we're -- that will be the principle that guides us. And we continue to see good numbers coming out of those places, particularly Dallas, which has been fantastic recently in terms of the demand side.

亞歷克斯，是亞歷克斯。我們確實在關注我們的客戶。我們在丹佛、達拉斯和亞特蘭大等市場上看到了這些高科技工作崗位，而這些市場過去的數量並不多。這將是指導我們的原則。我們繼續看到來自這些地方的良好數據，特別是達拉斯，最近在需求方面表現出色。

Other markets that we've talked about are specific to North Carolina, Charlotte and -- tech job base, particularly in the Raleigh area and then more finance in Charlotte. But we've been slow to get going on that because like Austin, the amount of supply is just daunting.

我們討論過的其他市場是特定於北卡羅來納州、夏洛特和科技就業基地，特別是羅利地區，然後是夏洛特的更多金融市場。但我們進展緩慢，因為像奧斯汀一樣，供應量令人望而生畏。

And when that really gets absorbed, it's hard to project right now. So we're willing to accept some dilution, but there's a limit to how much we want to accept. So I think you might see us enter those markets in a little bit when that becomes a little more clear.

當它真正被吸收時，現在就很難預測。因此，我們願意接受一些稀釋，但我們願意接受的程度是有限的。因此，我認為當情況變得更加清晰時，您可能會看到我們進入這些市場。

Rich Anderson, Wedbush.

里奇安德森，韋德布希。

First question on the Blackstone deal. Bob, what's the longer- term out plan on the CP side of the financing?

關於黑石交易的第一個問題。Bob，CP 融資方面的長期計畫是什麼？

So in the near term, a good component of it will be disposition proceeds because it was -- the CP balance was partially elevated just from timing and disposition. So we still have, call it, with our guidance like $400 million or so of dispositions that we have planned for the back half of this year or for the fourth quarter, could slip into early Q1 of next year. But that will bring our CP balance back to kind of what is the normal line that we put $500 million to $700 million or keep it around that level. So it's really disposed.

因此，在短期內，其中一個很好的組成部分將是處置收益，因為 CP 餘額僅因時機和處置而部分提高。因此，根據我們的指導，我們計劃在今年下半年或第四季進行 4 億美元左右的處置，這可能會推遲到明年第一季初。但這將使我們的 CP 餘額恢復到我們投入 5 億至 7 億美元或保持在該水平附近的正常水平。所以真的是安排好了。

Okay. And then a bigger picture perhaps for Mark. In 2016, the company sold, not -- it's probably not fair to call it all suburb or Sunbelt, but a chunk of Sunbelt to Barry that was almost 10 years ago, and now you're kind of reversing course with the expansion today.

好的。也許對馬克來說還有更大的前景。2016 年，該公司將大約 10 年前的大部分陽光地帶賣給了巴里，而不是——將其全部稱為郊區或陽光地帶可能不公平，而現在您在擴張過程中有點逆轉了方向。

Is this all a function of how tech business has moved in business-friendly climates have gotten better and other areas outside of, say, California and so on? Or is there something else that has caused the company to sort of arguably reverse course on the Sunbelt? And why you're doing this now versus the decision you made eight years ago?

這是否都是科技業在商業友善氣候變得更好以及加州等地區以外的地區發展的結果？還是有其他原因導致該公司在陽光地帶改變了方向？為什麼你現在這樣做而不是八年前做出的決定？

Thanks, Rich. It's good to talk to someone who has such a long amount of history in our business. You look at every one of our competitors and their market mix is morphed. We may be more vocal and more communicative about it. The people have left tertiary markets and focus, they've left lower-end renters in Sunbelt markets and focused on higher.

謝謝，里奇。與在我們行業擁有如此悠久歷史的人交談真是太好了。你看看我們的每一位競爭對手，他們的市場結構都改變了。我們可能會對此更加發聲和溝通。人們已經離開了三級市場和關注點，他們離開了陽光地帶市場的低端租戶，並專注於高端市場。

So just to be fair, I mean, really every company does adjust to circumstances and be among them. I would say several things changed. Regulatory risk became more significant in some of our coastal markets. And for a while, you might remember, we thought it was a big advantage because no could build in those markets. But it got challenging enough for some of those states and some of those jurisdictions became Alex mentioned following our customer, which is kind of our buy line.

因此，公平地說，我的意思是，實際上每家公司都會根據情況進行調整併躋身其中。我想說有幾件事改變了。在我們的一些沿海市場中，監管風險變得更加顯著。您可能還記得，有一段時間，我們認為這是一個很大的優勢，因為沒有人可以在這些市場上建立。但對於其中一些州來說，這已經足夠具有挑戰性了，亞歷克斯在我們的客戶之後提到了其中一些司法管轄區，這是我們的購買線。

And our customer, there are more higher-end jobs in the Sunbelt markets like Atlanta than there was when we exited those markets. And the other part that goes with that is how is a lot more expensive in those places. So it used to be our best renter in Atlanta. They'd be with six months and they buy a home. And our worst rider would move out in the middle of the night and it was a pretty low quality tenancy, all right?

對於我們的客戶來說，亞特蘭大等陽光地帶市場的高端工作比我們退出這些市場時要多。與之相關的另一部分是這些地方的物價要貴得多。所以它曾經是我們在亞特蘭大最好的租客。他們將有六個月的時間併購買房屋。我們最糟糕的騎士會在半夜搬出去，這是一個相當低品質的租賃，好嗎？

And that's really changed. You go to these places and much higher quality job growth. So it was a combination of regulatory risk, following our residents and much higher single-family housing costs in desirable areas.

這確實改變了。你去這些地方會得到更高品質的就業成長。因此，這是監管風險、追蹤我們的居民以及理想地區更高的單戶住房成本的結合。

We have no further questions. I'd like to turn the floor back to Mark Parrell for any additional or closing remarks.

我們沒有其他問題了。我想請馬克·帕雷爾（Mark Parrell）發表補充或結束語。

Thanks, Melinda. As we close the call, I want to thank my colleagues at our Augusta, Georgia Accounting Center for the work above and beyond the call of duty to close our books in the aftermath of what Hurricane Helene's terrible damage was to that city. I salute all of you and the folks in the counting here in Chicago, we picked up the slack and got all our quarter end financial work done on time.

謝謝，梅琳達。在我們結束通話之際，我要感謝佐治亞州奧古斯塔會計中心的同事們，在颶風海倫對該城市造成嚴重破壞後，他們在結束賬簿的職責範圍之外所做的工作。我向你們所有人以及芝加哥計票的人們致敬，我們彌補了這一不足，並按時完成了所有季度末的財務工作。

There are other conference call listeners, thanks for your time today, and we'll see you on the conference or for the rest of the year. Thank you.

還有其他電話會議聽眾，感謝您今天抽出時間，我們將在會議或今年餘下的時間裡見到您。謝謝。

This concludes today's conference. We thank you for your participation. You may disconnect your lines at this time.

今天的會議到此結束。我們感謝您的參與。此時您可以斷開線路。