住宅地產 (EQR) 2023 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good day, and welcome to the Equity Residential Fourth Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call and Webcast. Today's conference is being recorded. At this time, I would like to turn the conference over to Marty McKenna. Please go ahead, sir.

美好的一天，歡迎參加 2023 年第四季股權住宅收益電話會議和網路廣播。今天的會議正在錄製中。這次，我想把會議交給馬蒂·麥肯納。請繼續，先生。

Good morning, and thanks for joining us to discuss Equity Residential's Fourth Quarter 2023 Results and Outlook for 2024. Our featured speakers today are Mark Parrell, our President and CEO; Michael Manelis, our Chief Operating Officer; Alex Brackenridge, our Chief Investment Officer; and Bob Garechana, our CFO. Our earnings release is posted in the Investors section of equityapartments.com.

早安，感謝您與我們一起討論 Equity Residential 2023 年第四季業績和 2024 年展望。今天的演講嘉賓是我們的總裁兼執行長 Mark Parrell； Michael Manelis，我們的營運長； Alex Brackenridge，我們的首席投資長；和我們的財務長鮑勃·加雷查納 (Bob Garechana)。我們的收益發佈發佈在equityapartments.com 的投資者部分。

Please be advised that certain matters discussed during this conference call may constitute forward-looking statements within the meaning of the federal securities laws. These forward-looking statements are subject to certain economic risks and uncertainties. The company assumes no obligation to update or supplement these statements that become untrue because of subsequent events.

請注意，本次電話會議中討論的某些事項可能構成聯邦證券法含義內的前瞻性陳述。這些前瞻性陳述受到某些經濟風險和不確定性的影響。本公司不承擔更新或補充因後續事件而變得不真實的這些陳述的義務。

Now I'll turn the call over to Mark Parrell.

現在我將把電話轉給馬克·帕雷爾。

Thank you, Marty. Good morning, and thank you all for joining us today to discuss our fourth quarter 2023 results and the outlook for 2024. I will start us off, then Michael Manelis, our COO, will speak to our operating performance in 2024 operating expectations and followed by Alex Brackenridge, our Chief Investment Officer, will give some color on our capital allocation activities in the transactions markets, and then finally, Bob Garechana, our CFO, will review our 2024 guidance and our balance sheet, and then we'll take your questions.

謝謝你，馬蒂。早安，感謝大家今天加入我們，討論我們 2023 年第四季的業績和 2024 年的前景。首先，我們的營運長 Michael Manelis 將介紹我們 2024 年的營運業績以及營運預期，然後是我們的首席投資長Alex Brackenridge 將介紹我們在交易市場的資本配置活動，最後，我們的財務長Bob Garechana 將審查我們的2024 年指導方針和資產負債表，然後我們將回答您的問題。

We are pleased with our fourth quarter performance, which was in line with our October expectations. Our performance in 2023 was supported by a strong employment situation more than 2.7 million new jobs created. And while the 2024 outlook for overall jobs is more muted, we should benefit from a continued low unemployment rate for the college educated which currently sits around 2.1% as well as continued good real wage growth. We will also benefit in 2024, having low exposure to new supply in the vast majority of our markets, particularly when compared to the Sunbelt markets as well as the customer comfortably able to pay our rents with current rent to income levels at about 20%.

我們對第四季的業績感到滿意，這符合我們 10 月的預期。我們 2023 年的業績得益於強勁的就業情勢，新增就業機會超過 270 萬個。儘管 2024 年整體就業前景更加黯淡，但我們應該受益於受過大學教育的失業率持續較低（目前約為 2.1%）以及持續良好的實際工資增長。我們也將在 2024 年受益，因為我們絕大多數市場的新供應部位較低，特別是與陽光地帶市場相比，而且客戶能夠輕鬆支付我們的租金，目前租金佔收入水準的 20% 左右。

Overall, with low unemployment and rising real wages, our target renter demographic remains in good shape. They are likely to rent with us longer as the prospect of homeownership in the near term seems less likely. With scarce inventory and relatively high mortgage rates, and 8% of our residents who moved out they bought home as a reason to depart in 2023, which is the lowest we have seen since we started tracking the number.

整體而言，由於失業率較低且實質薪資不斷上漲，我們的目標租戶群體仍保持良好狀態。他們可能會在我們這裡租時間更長，因為短期內擁有住房的前景似乎不太可能。由於庫存稀缺，抵押貸款利率相對較高，8% 的搬出居民在 2023 年購買了房屋作為搬出的理由，這是我們開始跟踪這一數字以來的最低水平。

And over the next decade, the significant net deficit of housing across our country sets us up for good long-term demand.

未來十年，我國嚴重的房屋淨赤字將為我們帶來良好的長期需求。

Drilling down on the West Coast, we do see clear signs of improvement in quality of life and energy in the street in the urban centers of Seattle and San Francisco. We continue to believe a recovery in rental rates in the downtown submarkets of these metros is coming and expect our shareholders will benefit from catch-up rental growth in these places where rents are still at or a fair bit below 2019 levels and where incomes, both on a nominal and real basis have risen substantially since 2019.

深入西海岸，我們確實看到西雅圖和舊金山市中心街道的生活品質和能源改善的明顯跡象。我們仍然相信這些大都會市中心子市場的租金率即將回升，並預計我們的股東將從這些地方的追趕式租金增長中受益，這些地方的租金仍處於或略低於 2019 年的水平，而且收入自2019 年以來，名目和實際成長率均大幅上升。

So while we have not baked the material improvement in Seattle and San Francisco performance in our 2024 guidance expectations, we do note that other urban centers damaged by the pandemic and other negative trends, for example, New York City, reignited quickly and sharply off of depressed rent levels once quality of life and employment conditions improved. Switching to the cost side of the equation, our consistent ability to grow expenses and overhead more slowly than our competitors will preserve cash flow for our shareholders as rent growth slows across the country and positions us well once growth picks back up.

因此，雖然我們沒有在2024 年指導預期中考慮西雅圖和舊金山表現的實質改善，但我們確實注意到，受到大流行和其他負面趨勢損害的其他城市中心，例如紐約市，迅速而急劇地重新點燃.一旦生活品質和就業條件改善，租金水平就會下降。轉向等式的成本方面，我們始終有能力比競爭對手更慢地增加費用和管理費用，這將為我們的股東保留現金流，因為全國各地的租金增長放緩，一旦增長回升，我們將處於有利地位。

As it relates to capital allocation, before Alex goes through the details of our recent transaction activities and our view of forward market conditions, I do want to highlight that we bought back some of our stock in the fourth quarter for the first time in many years. We bought back a little more than 864,000 EQR common shares for a total of about $49 million spent at about $57 per share. We funded this repurchase activity with proceeds from sales during January of less desirable assets that were on average 40 years old and were sold at a 5.6% disposition yield and believe that at this stock price and funded with these disposition proceeds, buying our shares makes a very good investment, especially given the lack of available assets to acquire at reasonable prices.

由於涉及資本配置，在亞歷克斯詳細介紹我們最近的交易活動以及我們對遠期市場狀況的看法之前，我確實想強調一下，我們多年來首次在第四季度回購了部分股票。我們以每股約 57 美元的價格回購了略多於 864,000 股的 EQR 普通股，總共花費了約 4,900 萬美元。我們用1 月份出售不太理想的資產的收益為這次回購活動提供資金，這些資產平均有40 年的歷史，並以5.6% 的處置收益率出售，我們相信，按照這個股價並用這些處置收益資助，購買我們的股票可以帶來非常好的投資，特別是考慮到缺乏可用的資產以合理的價格購買。

Before I turn the call over, I want to thank our teams across the company for their continued hard work and dedication to serving our customers and producing strong results for our shareholders. Now I'll turn the call over to Michael Manelis.

在我轉交電話之前，我要感謝我們整個公司的團隊為服務我們的客戶並為我們的股東創造強勁業績而持續的辛勤工作和奉獻精神。現在我將把電話轉給麥可·馬內利斯。

Thanks, Mark. This morning, I will review our fourth quarter 2023 operating performance and our outlook for 2024. We produced same-store revenue growth of 3.9% and same-store expense growth of only 1.3% in the fourth quarter, both of which were in line with our expectations. On the expense side, our low growth in the quarter and full year 4.3% growth were helped by modest property tax cost as well as the savings produced as we continue to roll out initiatives focused on creating operating efficiencies and a seamless customer experience. On the revenue side, the momentum in December was a little better than we thought as sequentially, we grew revenue in the fourth quarter by holding on to more occupancy while maintaining positive blended rate growth. This set us up for a good start in 2024.

謝謝，馬克。今天早上，我將回顧我們 2023 年第四季的營運表現以及對 2024 年的展望。第四季我們的同店營收成長了 3.9%，同店費用成長僅為 1.3%，這兩者都符合我們的期望。在費用方面，我們本季的低成長和全年 4.3% 的成長得益於適度的財產稅成本以及我們繼續推出專注於提高營運效率和無縫客戶體驗的舉措所產生的節省。在營收方面，12 月的勢頭比我們預期的要好一些，因為我們在第四季度透過保持更多入住率同時保持正混合率成長來實現營收成長。這為我們在 2024 年取得了良好的開端。

Demand was solid across our markets and consistent with seasonal expectations. We finished the year with same-store physical occupancy at 96% as we focused on building up occupancy in the slower part of our leasing cycle. Today, the portfolio is above 96%. As expected, we saw new lease rates go negative in the quarter as they typically do. Meanwhile, renewal rates for the quarter came in at 5.1%, which was slightly above our expectations. Together, this resulted in a fourth quarter blended rate growth of positive 80 basis points. These healthy fundamentals led to outstanding revenue growth in our East Coast markets and good growth in Southern California.

我們整個市場的需求強勁，符合季節性預期。由於我們專注於在租賃週期較慢的階段提高入住率，因此我們年底的同店實體入住率為 96%。如今，該投資組合已超過 96%。正如預期的那樣，我們看到本季的新租賃利率像往常一樣出現負值。同時，本季的續訂率為 5.1%，略高於我們的預期。總之，第四季綜合利率成長了 80 個基點。這些健康的基本面導致我們東海岸市場的收入顯著成長，南加州市場也實現了良好的成長。

As has been the case all year, the East Coast markets outperformed the West Coast and by and large, will likely continue to do so in 2024. As you saw in our earnings release, we have provided 2024 same-store revenue guidance range of up 2% to 3%. The building blocks for this growth starts with embedded growth of 1.4% and a midpoint assumption that both physical occupancy and cash concessions remain consistent with that of 2023. We expect the year to follow the traditional pre-COVID historical patterns with rent growth sequentially picking up in the spring and likely peaking in August.

與全年的情況一樣，東海岸市場的表現優於西海岸，並且總體而言，這種情況可能會在2024 年繼續如此。正如您在我們的財報中所看到的，我們提供的2024 年同店收入指導範圍為2%至3%。這項成長的基石始於1.4% 的嵌入成長，以及實體入住率和現金優惠均與2023 年保持一致的中點假設。我們預計這一年將遵循新冠疫情前的傳統歷史模式，租金成長將依次回升春季，可能在八月達到頂峰。

Our midpoint assumes renewals for the year averaged just over 4%, new lease change is relatively flat, which together produces blended rate growth of about 2%. This is more modest growth than the 2023 full year blended rate growth of 3.1% and is reflective of a slowing job growth environment, offset by a mostly positive supply situation in our coastal markets where we have about 95% of our NOI.

我們的中點假設今年的平均續約率略高於 4%，新租約變化相對平穩，兩者共同產生約 2% 的混合成長率。這一增長比 2023 年全年 3.1% 的綜合增長率更為溫和，反映出就業成長環境放緩，但被我們約 95% 的 NOI 的沿海市場基本積極的供應狀況所抵消。

As you can see from the stats in the release, January is starting out the way we would expect, with new lease change improving, a strong percent of residents renewing and a renewal rate achieved that is healthy, albeit moderating a bit.

正如您從發布的統計數據中看到的，一月份的開局正如我們預期的那樣，新的租約變更有所改善，居民續約的比例很高，而且續約率雖然有所放緩，但仍保持健康。

While still early, all of these January trends support our outlook for the year, which includes a view that resident retention remains very good as a result of both the benefits of a centralized renewal process, our enhanced data and analytics insights, and the high cost and low availability of owned housing in our markets.

雖然還為時過早，但所有這些1 月趨勢都支持我們對今年的展望，其中包括這樣一種觀點，即由於集中續訂流程的好處、我們增強的數據和分析洞察力以及高成本，居民保留率仍然非常好我們市場上的自有住房供應量低。

Turnover in the portfolio remains some of the lowest that we have seen in the history of our company, and we expect that trend to continue in 2024. Orange County, San Diego, Boston and Washington, D.C. will lead the pack with expected revenue growth of approximately 4%. New York and L.A. will follow closely behind. At the moment, we expect slightly positive same-store revenue growth in San Francisco and Seattle. And in our expansion markets, which reflect only about 5.5% of the total company NOI, we expect to produce negative same-store revenue growth given the unprecedented levels of supply being delivered.

投資組合的營業額仍然是我們公司歷史上最低的，我們預計這一趨勢將在 2024 年繼續下去。奧蘭治縣、聖地亞哥、波士頓和華盛頓特區將領先，預計收入將增長約4%。紐約和洛杉磯緊隨其後。目前，我們預期舊金山和西雅圖的同店營收將出現小幅正成長。在我們的擴張市場中，僅占公司總 NOI 的 5.5% 左右，鑑於所交付的供應量達到前所未有的水平，我們預計同店收入將出現負增長。

As we look to the individual markets, starting with Boston, with high occupancy and limited new competitive supply, this market should continue to perform well in 2024. The market is supported by a strong employment base and finance, tech, life science, health and education. New supply deliveries will be about the same this year as they were in 2023 and this is a market where our urban assets have outperformed suburban ones lately, and we expect that trend to continue in '24.

我們著眼於各個市場，從波士頓開始，由於入住率高且新的競爭性供應有限，該市場在2024 年應該會繼續表現良好。該市場得到了強大的就業基礎以及金融、科技、生命科學、健康和教育。今年的新供應交付量將與 2023 年大致相同，在這個市場上，我們的城市資產最近表現優於郊區資產，我們預計這種趨勢將在 2024 年繼續下去。

New York should continue to perform well this year, but won't reach the high rate growth achieved over the last few years. Occupancies remain high and competitive new supply is limited, which led to record high market rents causing some rate fatigue to be observed in late in '23. New supply deliveries will be similar to last year with very little being delivered in Manhattan, where a large part of our portfolio is located. Washington, D.C. continues to outperform our expectations despite the delivery of a good amount of new supply. The market delivered over 13,000 units in 2023 and saw the great majority of those units absorbed.

紐約今年應該會繼續表現良好，但不會達到過去幾年的高成長率。入住率仍然很高，而有競爭力的新供應有限，導致市場租金創下歷史新高，導致 23 年末出現一些利率疲勞。新供應的交付量將與去年相似，但曼哈頓的交付量很少，而我們的大部分產品組合都位於曼哈頓。儘管交付了大量新供應，但華盛頓特區的表現仍持續超越我們的預期。 2023 年，市場交付了超過 13,000 套，其中大部分已被吸收。

This year, the market will see a similar amount of deliveries, but demand has been strong, and we expect this good performance to continue. We are starting the year with occupancies above 97%, which is a great position to be in.

今年，市場將出現類似的交付量，但需求一直強勁，我們預計這種良好表現將持續下去。年初，我們的入住率超過 97%，這是一個非常好的地點。

In Los Angeles, we expect a tailwind to growth as we work through the delinquency and bad debt issues that have been concentrated here. We continue to make progress, although the court system remains slow taking at least 6 months from our court filing to being able to get the unit back. Bob will give some more color on the impact of bad debt net on our 2024 earnings expectations.

在洛杉磯，我們預計，隨著我們解決這裡集中的拖欠和壞帳問題，經濟成長將迎來順風車。我們繼續取得進展，儘管法院系統仍然緩慢，從我們向法院提起訴訟到能夠收回該單位至少需要 6 個月的時間。鮑伯將進一步闡述壞帳淨額對我們 2024 年獲利預期的影響。

New supply deliveries will be slightly higher this year with our Mid-Wilshire Koreatown and San Fernando Valley portfolios seeing the largest impact from this new supply. Strong retention and solid demand will continue to aid our ability to fill vacant units with paying residents in this market. Rounding out Southern California, San Diego and Orange County should be some of our highest growth markets this year, driven by high occupancies and a general lack of housing. High homeownership costs make renting in these markets a more attractive option.

今年的新供應交付量將略有增加，其中威爾希爾中部韓國城和聖費爾南多谷投資組合受到新供應影響最大。強勁的保留率和穩定的需求將繼續幫助我們有能力在這個市場上用付費居民來填補空置單位。受高入住率和普遍缺乏住房的推動，南加州、聖地牙哥和橘郡應該是今年成長最快的市場之一。高昂的房屋擁有成本使這些市場的租房成為更具吸引力的選擇。

San Diego will see more competitive new supply in 2024, while Orange County will see similar amounts to last year. In San Francisco and Seattle, we had little to no pricing power throughout 2023, and our base case expectations for this year assume that situation continues. We have seen periods of stability and in pullbacks. Concession use in both markets is widespread, we have strong physical occupancy with both markets being above 96%, which tells us there is demand, although it is very price sensitive.

聖地牙哥將在 2024 年看到更具競爭力的新增供應，而橘郡的供應量將與去年相似。在舊金山和西雅圖，我們在 2023 年幾乎沒有定價能力，我們對今年的基本情況預期假設這種情況持續下去。我們經歷過穩定期和回檔期。這兩個市場的特許權使用都很廣泛，我們的實際入住率都很高，兩個市場都超過 96%，這表明我們存在需求，儘管需求對價格非常敏感。

As Mark mentioned, the downtown areas of both markets continue to see improvement in the quality of life but are still lacking the catalyst of return to office and/or job growth. New supply in San Francisco this year will be up from last year levels, mostly due to an increase in the South Bay, although continued healthy demand in this submarket should aid the absorption. Seattle is likely to be the most impacted of any of our established markets when it comes to new supply deliveries with increases in both the city of Seattle and the East side. The lack of expected job growth combined with this new supply have driven our low expectations in Seattle for 2024.

正如馬克所提到的，兩個市場的市中心地區的生活品質繼續改善，但仍然缺乏重返辦公室和/或就業成長的催化劑。舊金山今年的新增供應量將高於去年水平，主要是由於南灣的增加，儘管該子市場持續健康的需求應該有助於吸收。就新的供應交付而言，西雅圖可能是我們所有成熟市場中受影響最大的，西雅圖市和東部地區的供應量都有所增加。由於缺乏預期的就業成長以及新增供應，我們對西雅圖 2024 年的預期較低。

Both Seattle and San Francisco continued to see less than normal inbound migration. Seattle in the fourth quarter, however, did see some relative improvement with new residents coming to us from out of state. This positive trend is something that we will keep an eye on as we move through the spring leasing season. Drawing new residents back to the MSAs in both Seattle and San Francisco would be a catalyst for these markets to outperform our expectations. In the expansion markets, our long-term outlook remains positive. That said, high levels of new supply are already pressuring rents and is likely to continue throughout 2024.

西雅圖和舊金山的入境移民數量仍然低於正常水平。然而，第四季度西雅圖確實看到了一些相對改善，因為有新居民從州外來到我們這裡。在春季租賃季期間，我們將密切關注這一積極趨勢。吸引新居民回到西雅圖和舊金山的 MSA 將成為這些市場超出我們預期的催化劑。在擴張市場中，我們的長期前景仍然樂觀。儘管如此，高水準的新增供應已經對租金構成壓力，並且可能持續到 2024 年。

At present, we are operating from a defensive position and starting the year with occupancies that are 2 to 3 percentage points above the market averages. Denver has demonstrated the most stability despite having limited pricing power in the portfolio and we expect the market to produce slightly positive same-store revenue growth in 2024.

目前，我們處於防禦地位，年初的入住率比市場平均高出 2 至 3 個百分點。儘管產品組合的定價能力有限，但丹佛表現出最穩定的表現，我們預計該市場將在 2024 年實現小幅正向同店收入成長。

Currently, Atlanta is using the least amount of concessions, but we expect a few of our assets to be very challenged due to the sheer number of lease-ups in close proximity, which will likely lead to negative revenue growth for the year. In Texas, Dallas and Austin have widespread concession use, and we expect all of our assets to experience direct pressure from new deliveries all year long, resulting in negative same-store revenue growth in these markets.

目前，亞特蘭大使用的特許權數量最少，但我們預計，由於附近的租賃數量眾多，我們的一些資產將面臨很大的挑戰，這可能會導致今年的收入負增長。在德州、達拉斯和奧斯汀有廣泛的特許權使用，我們預計我們的所有資產全年都會受到新交付的直接壓力，導致這些市場的同店收入負成長。

So putting all of these factors together, our overall same-store revenue outlook for 2024 right now anticipate solid growth led by the East Coast markets and Southern California, which collectively is almost 70% of our NOI. We expect our coastal existing markets to outperform our expansion markets where unprecedented supply will impact operations near term.

因此，將所有這些因素放在一起，我們目前對 2024 年同店收入的總體展望預計將在東海岸市場和南加州帶動下實現穩健增長，這兩個市場合計幾乎占我們 NOI 的 70%。我們預計沿海現有市場的表現將優於我們的擴張市場，這些市場前所未有的供應將影響近期的營運。

On the initiative side, in 2024, we will continue to focus on producing operating efficiencies and driving other income with projects tied to flexible living options, parking, renters insurance and monetizing technology deployed for the benefits of our residents. We are almost complete with the rollout of smart home technology across our portfolio, which will create further opportunities to share teams across properties and enable additional self-service options for residents.

在計劃方面，到 2024 年，我們將繼續專注於提高營運效率並透過與靈活的生活選擇、停車、租戶保險和為居民利益而部署的貨幣化技術相關的項目來提高其他收入。我們幾乎完成了在整個產品組合中推出智慧家庭技術的工作，這將為跨物業共享團隊創造更多機會，並為居民提供更多自助服務選項。

This, along with other ancillary income should lead to total other income growth of 30 basis points, excluding bad debt. As we sit here today, we like our positioning and look forward to capturing the opportunities the spring leasing season brings, which will help frame pricing power for the full year.

這與其他輔助收入一起應導致其他總收入增加 30 個基點（不包括壞帳）。當我們今天坐在這裡時，我們喜歡我們的定位，並期待抓住春季租賃季節的機會，這將有助於確定全年的定價能力。

I want to give a shout out for our amazing teams across our platform for their continued dedication to their residents and focus on delivering these results. With that, I will turn the call over to Alex to walk through our capital allocation activities and the transaction market.

我想為我們平台上出色的團隊大聲喝彩，感謝他們對居民的持續奉獻並專注於實現這些成果。接下來，我會將電話轉給 Alex，讓他介紹我們的資本配置活動和交易市場。

Thank you, Michael. Despite an unsettled transactions market, we remain steadfast in our efforts to continue to reposition our portfolio by increasing our presence in markets like Dallas-Fort Worth, Atlanta, Austin and Denver, and expect to see more opportunity to do so as the year progresses.

謝謝你，麥可。儘管交易市場不穩定，但我們仍然堅定不移地努力繼續重新定位我們的投資組合，增加我們在達拉斯-沃斯堡、亞特蘭大、奧斯汀和丹佛等市場的業務，並預計隨著時間的推移，會看到更多這樣做的機會。

As we underwrite potential acquisitions, we are always mindful of heightened levels of supply pressuring rents in our expansion markets and reflect tempered rent growth and concessions as needed in our projections. Currently, the transaction market remains unusually choppy, with volumes down 60% to 70% compared to 2022 and down 40% to 50% compared to a more typical year like 2019. Nonetheless, pressures on sellers to transact continued to mount as does the volume of new developments being delivered in these markets. New developments in particular, are often not capitalized to be held for the long term. And even with rates decreasing over the last few months, carry costs are high. Owners of stabilized assets will also see pressure to transact as loans mature and extensions that were agreed to with lenders last year expire.

當我們承保潛在收購時，我們始終關注擴張市場中供應水準的提高對租金的壓力，並在我們的預測中反映租金成長的緩和和所需的優惠。目前，交易市場仍然異常波動，交易量比2022 年下降了60% 至70%，與2019 年等更典型的年份相比下降了40% 至50%。儘管如此，賣家的交易壓力繼續加大，交易量也隨之增加。這些市場中正在交付的新開發項目。尤其是新開發項目，往往無法資本化以長期持有。即使過去幾個月利率有所下降，持有成本仍然很高。隨著貸款到期以及去年與貸方達成的延期協議到期，穩定資產的所有者也將面臨交易壓力。

Despite the short-term operating challenges in our expansion markets, we remain committed to broadening our footprint in markets that will see strong job growth and household formations over time and lower regulatory risks. As regards to our own transactions activity, we didn't acquire any assets in the fourth quarter, but we did sell three, a small property in Seattle, one in the Bay Area and one in L.A. On average, the properties were 40 years old and total sales proceeds were $185 million at an average 5.8% disposition yield.

儘管我們的擴張市場面臨短期營運挑戰，但我們仍然致力於擴大我們在市場的足跡，隨著時間的推移，這些市場將出現強勁的就業成長和家庭形成，並降低監管風險。至於我們自己的交易活動，我們在第四季度沒有收購任何資產，但我們確實出售了三處，一處位於西雅圖的小房產，一處位於灣區，一處位於洛杉磯。平均而言，這些房產有40年的歷史總銷售收益為 1.85 億美元，平均處置收益率為 5.8%。

While transaction volume overall is very light, we are seeing some opportunities to lighten the load of noncore older assets, primarily in our West Coast markets. Since the beginning of 2024, we've sold two additional properties, one in Southern California and a small deal in Boston for a total of $189 million at an average of 5.6% disposition yield. We've allocated a portion of the capital from these sales to the share buyback activity Mark just mentioned.

雖然整體交易量非常少，但我們看到了一些減輕非核心舊資產負載的機會，主要是在我們的西海岸市場。自 2024 年初以來，我們又出售了兩處房產，一處位於南加州，另一處位於波士頓，總價值為 1.89 億美元，平均處置收益率為 5.6%。我們已將這些銷售的部分資金分配給馬克剛才提到的股票回購活動。

With ample access to capital either through asset sales or debt issuance and a property management presence in our expansion markets, we are well positioned to take advantage of opportunities as they arise. In terms of anticipated volume, our guidance for 2024 is $1 billion for both acquisitions and dispositions but market conditions will dictate whether we can hit or even exceed these goals.

透過資產出售或債務發行以及在擴張市場中的物業管理業務，我們能夠獲得充足的資本，因此我們處於有利地位，可以在機會出現時抓住機會。就預期數量而言，我們對 2024 年收購和處置的指導為 10 億美元，但市場狀況將決定我們是否能夠達到甚至超過這些目標。

Turning to development. In 2024, we'll complete six new apartment properties with a total cost expected to be $624 million and consisting of 1,982 units with lease-ups commencing for two of those projects in Q1 and four in Q2. Three of those lease-ups all through our joint venture program with Toll Brothers are in Dallas, while the remaining three, two in Denver and one in suburban New York City are JVs with other developers. Given the timing for completion and lease up, we don't expect meaningful contribution to NFFO growth in 2024, but would expect these projects to contribute more to 2025 growth.

轉向發展。到 2024 年，我們將竣工 6 個新公寓物業，總成本預計為 6.24 億美元，包括 1,982 個單元，其中兩個項目將於第一季度開始出租，四個項目將於第二季度開始出租。透過我們與 Toll Brothers 的合資項目，其中三個租賃項目位於達拉斯，其餘三處（兩處位於丹佛，一處位於紐約市郊區）是與其他開發商的合資企業。考慮到竣工和租賃的時間，我們預計這些項目不會對 2024 年 NFFO 的成長做出有意義的貢獻，但預計這些項目將為 2025 年的成長做出更多貢獻。

While our suburban New York project will see limited competition from new supply, not unexpectedly, our lease ups in Dallas and Denver will see substantial new competition. We acknowledge that the competition may be challenging and anticipate that as we may have to adjust pricing and concessions to meet the market, our projected stabilized yields, which at initial underwriting, will on average a mid-6, maybe closer to 6. We believe these lease-ups, once stabilized and past the current supply glut will provide good cash flow growth and be solid long-term investments.

雖然我們紐約郊區的計畫將面臨來自新供應的有限競爭，但毫不意外的是，我們在達拉斯和丹佛的租賃計畫將面臨大量的新競爭。我們承認競爭可能具有挑戰性，並預計由於我們可能必須調整定價和優惠以滿足市場需求，因此我們預期的穩定收益率（在最初承保時）平均將達到 6 左右，甚至接近 6。我們相信這些租賃一旦穩定並克服當前的供應過剩，將提供良好的現金流成長，並成為可靠的長期投資。

Beyond these deliveries, we will be very selective about starting any new projects with a primary focus on locations where it's hard to buy such as suburban Boston. I'll now turn the call over to Bob.

除了這些交付之外，我們將非常有選擇性地啟動任何新項目，主要專注於難以購買的地區，例如波士頓郊區。我現在將把電話轉給鮑伯。

Thanks, Alex. As Michael and Mark mentioned, 2023 ended up right in line with our forecast last quarter. So let's get right to guidance. Michael gave you most of the building blocks for same-store revenue, but I'll finish up with bad debt, walk through drivers of same-store expenses and normalized FFO and conclude with the balance sheet.

謝謝，亞歷克斯。正如麥可和馬克所提到的，2023 年的結果與我們上季的預測完全一致。那麼就讓我們直接接受指導吧。麥可為您提供了同店收入的大部分組成部分，但我將以壞帳結束，介紹同店費用和標準化 FFO 的驅動因素，並以資產負債表結束。

In 2023, we were able to reduce bad debt significantly once the regulatory environment became more constructive. While we continue to work with nonpaying residents as we have during and after the pandemic, ultimately, we still ended up processing a high volume of skips and evicts. In fact, about 1.5x pre-pandemic activity levels, which, coupled with not adding significant amounts of new nonpaying residents, helped us reduce bad debt as a percentage of same-store revenue from well over 2% to just under 1.5%. So great progress overall, but still a long way from the 50 basis points we were accustomed to pre-pandemic.

2023 年，一旦監管環境變得更具建設性，我們就能夠大幅減少壞帳。儘管我們繼續像大流行期間和之後那樣與不付費居民合作，但最終我們仍然處理了大量的跳過和驅逐問題。事實上，大約是疫情前活動水準的 1.5 倍，再加上沒有大量增加新的非付費居民，幫助我們將壞帳佔同店收入的比例從遠超 2% 降低到略低於 1.5%。整體而言進步很大，但距離我們在疫情前習慣的 50 個基點還有很長的路要走。

Much like last year, we expect 2024 to continue to show improvement. We also expect the pace of this improvement to be dependent on the speed of the court systems, primarily in Southern California, where delinquency remains highest to quickly process evictions, which is a hard thing to predict. As a result, our guidance assumes that 2024 remains another transition year for bad debt and that we don't get all the way back to pre-pandemic levels.

與去年一樣，我們預計 2024 年將繼續出現改善。我們也預期這種改善的速度將取決於法院系統的速度，主要是在南加州，那裡的拖欠率仍然最高，無法快速處理驅逐，這是一件很難預測的事情。因此，我們的指導假設 2024 年仍然是壞帳的另一個過渡年，而且我們不會完全回到大流行前的水平。

Instead, our guidance midpoint assumes that full year bad debt as a percentage of same-store residential revenue is slightly above 1% or a 30 basis point contribution to 2024 growth overall. If that plays out by the end of 2024, we would expect to be a little under 2x pre-pandemic levels.

相反，我們的指導中點假設全年壞帳佔同店住宅收入的百分比略高於 1%，即對 2024 年整體成長的貢獻為 30 個基點。如果這種情況到 2024 年底實現，我們預計這一數字將略低於疫情前水準的 2 倍。

Turning to expenses. Expense management is a core strength at Equity Residential as evidenced by the historical performance Mark referenced. Our same-store expense guidance of 4% is also reflective of that discipline. This year, the individual drivers of growth are a little different than those from 2023. So let me give you a high-level assessment, and we can get into more detail in Q&A if required.

轉向開支。費用管理是 Equity Residential 的核心優勢，Mark 引用的歷史表現證明了這一點。我們 4% 的同店費用指導也反映了這個原則。今年，各個成長驅動因素與 2023 年略有不同。因此，讓我給您一個高層次的評估，如果需要，我們可以在問答中詳細介紹。

In 2024, we expect real estate taxes and utilities to grow faster than they did in 2023, in part due to some 421a step-ups and commodity prices, while payroll and repairs and maintenance should be slower due to various initiatives and an expected normalization of inflationary pressures. Insurance, a small category at less than 5% of total expenses, but a topic often discussed should grow more slowly than last year but remain above the long-term trend with growth in the low double digits.

到2024 年，我們預計房地產稅和公用事業稅的增長速度將快於2023 年，部分原因是421a 法案的上調和大宗商品價格，而由於各種舉措以及預期的正常化，工資和維修保養的速度應該會放緩。通膨壓力。保險是一個小類別，佔總支出的比例不到 5%，但卻是一個經常討論的話題，其成長速度應該比去年慢，但仍高於長期趨勢，成長率為低兩位數。

Turning to normalized FFO. Page 2 of the release provides a detailed reconciliation of our forecasted contributors to NFFO growth. As is typical same-store NOI performance is the primary driver of growth but let me provide some color on transaction activity. We are assuming $1 billion in both acquisitions and dispositions for 2024 with limited dilution yet we show a $0.03 reduction in normalized FFO growth there. This is due to our assumption that our acquisition activity mostly occurs later in the year than our dispositions. This is also partly offset in interest expense and interest income as disposition proceeds are used to pay down debt or invested in interest-bearing 1031 accounts while we await acquisitions.

轉向標準化 FFO。新聞稿的第 2 頁提供了我們對 NFFO 成長的預測貢獻者的詳細調節。正如典型的同店 NOI 績效是成長的主要驅動力一樣，但讓我提供一些有關交易活動的資訊。我們假設 2024 年的收購和處置金額均為 10 億美元，稀釋程度有限，但我們顯示正常化的 FFO 成長將減少 0.03 美元。這是因為我們假設我們的收購活動大多發生在今年晚些時候，而不是我們的處置活動。這也部分抵消了利息支出和利息收入，因為在我們等待收購期間，處置收益用於償還債務或投資於計息 1031 帳戶。

Now a very brief comment on the balance sheet because we're in really great shape here. We have no debt maturities until the middle of 2025, modest outstanding balances on our commercial paper program and less than 10% floating rate debt. So we're very well positioned. In fact, over 50% of our existing debt doesn't mature until after 2030. The work we've done over the last number of years has reduced our interest rate exposure and allows us for ample debt capacity to run and grow our business. With that, I'll turn it over to the operator.

現在對資產負債表進行一個非常簡短的評論，因為我們現在的狀況非常好。我們的債務要到 2025 年中期才到期，商業票據計畫的未償餘額不大，浮動利率債務低於 10%。所以我們處於非常有利的位置。事實上，我們現有債務的50% 以上要到2030 年之後才會到期。我們過去幾年所做的工作降低了我們的利率風險，使我們有充足的債務能力來運作和發展我們的業務。有了這個，我會把它交給操作員。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question is going to come from Steve Sakwa from Evercore.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題將來自 Evercore 的 Steve Sakwa。

Great. I guess I wanted to just maybe go through some of the building blocks of growth in '24, either for Michael or Bob. But as you kind of look through the moving pieces here. It seemed like maybe the new rate growth at kind of flattish might be one that could pose maybe a bit more of a challenge here of job growth slow. So just curious how you sort of sized all up those components? And how did you think about the new lease component with the fact that you kept occupancy flat, I guess, within the guidance?

偉大的。我想我可能只是想回顧一下 24 年邁克爾或鮑勃成長的一些基石。但當你仔細觀察這裡的動態片段。看來，新的利率成長可能會帶來就業成長緩慢的更大挑戰。所以只是好奇你是如何評估所有這些組件的大小的？我想，在指導範圍內，您保持入住率持平，您如何看待新的租賃部分？

Steve, this is Michael. I'll start. Maybe Bob can come over the top. So I think when you look at the building blocks for the guidance, you need to realize, one, we're giving you a range. And there's a lot of different ways you can get there, but it's really the top level themes that underline and pin those midpoint assumptions. So when we thought about new lease change, we started with the fact that we know the job growth is moderating this year. And therefore, we would expect market rents or asking rents just to be kind of less than normal across the large majority of our markets. So we kind of model a normal seasonal slope for our kind of rent trend to build and then we plug that in and we say, okay, what does that equate to? And right now, across our market, it's balancing out to basically be about flat on new lease change for the full year.

史蒂夫，這是麥可。我開始吧。也許鮑伯可以超越巔峰。因此，我認為，當您查看指導的構建模組時，您需要意識到，第一，我們為您提供了一個範圍。有很多不同的方法可以實現這一目標，但這實際上是強調和固定這些中點假設的頂級主題。因此，當我們考慮新的租約變更時，我們首先考慮到今年的就業成長正在放緩。因此，我們預計大多數市場的市場租金或租金要價將低於正常水平。因此，我們為我們的租金趨勢建立了一個正常的季節性斜率模型，然後我們將其代入，然後我們說，好吧，這相當於什麼？目前，在我們的整個市場上，全年新租約變化基本上持平。

Some of our markets are still positive. Some of our markets are still positive theme and some of the markets are still coming in at a negative growth through the year. But I think when you start to pull on any one of those, you need to go back to the top level themes and ask yourself okay, what's really changing. So if there's a material shift in job growth, sure. I think we would experience more pressure than we underlined and at the midpoint of our range. But again, it's when does that happen in the year? And where are we? Because today, I'll tell you, we have taken a defensive position. We're starting the year with pretty strong occupancy that really gives us some confidence heading into the spring leasing season, and we'll just see kind of what pricing power emerges from that.

我們的一些市場仍然樂觀。我們的部分市場仍然是正面的主題，而有些市場全年仍然出現負成長。但我認為，當你開始使用其中任何一個時，你需要回到頂層主題並問自己，好吧，真正改變的是什麼。因此，如果就業成長發生重大變化，那是肯定的。我認為我們會經歷比我們強調的更大的壓力以及我們範圍的中點。但話又說回來，這是什麼時候發生的呢？我們在哪裡？因為今天我要告訴你，我們採取了防禦立場。今年伊始，我們的入住率相當強勁，這確實給了我們進入春季租賃季節的信心，我們將看到由此產生的定價能力。

Great. And then just maybe one question on the transaction market. I know it's not been terribly robust. But maybe, Alex, can you just speak to where you think maybe IRR hurdles are today, the 10-year sort of plus or minus 4% come down, way off the high, I realize NOI and rent growth is slowing. But where do you think investment hurdles are today, either for EQR for the market, broadly speaking?

偉大的。然後可能只是交易市場上的一個問題。我知道它並不是非常強大。但也許，Alex，你能談談你認為今天 IRR 障礙在哪裡嗎？10 年期正負 4% 下降，遠低於高點，我意識到 NOI 和租金增長正在放緩。但從廣義上講，您認為當今市場的 EQR 投資障礙在哪裡？

Steve, it is Al. Thanks for the question. As you state, it's a pretty choppy market right now. And there aren't a whole lot of data points. As you know, the NMHC conference is going on in San Diego right now. So I have some pretty current time information, which is really a reiteration of what we've been experiencing in the last few months, which is a standoff between buyers and sellers. Buyers generally looking for a 5.5-ish cap and sellers generally looking for something closer to 5.

史蒂夫，我是艾爾。謝謝你的提問。正如您所說，現在的市場相當動盪。而且沒有大量的數據點。如您所知，NMHC 會議目前正在聖地牙哥舉行。所以我有一些相當當前的時間信息，這實際上是我們在過去幾個月所經歷的事情的重申，即買家和賣家之間的僵局。買家通常會尋找 5.5 左右的上限，賣家通常會尋找接近 5 的上限。

So not an insurmountable gap at some point, but right now, it's hard to peg things. But assuming things kind of land somewhere in between there at a 5.25, I think most people are shooting for an 8-ish IRR. And obviously, it depends on the rent growth assumptions and the residual cap rate, but somewhere in that end, maybe a little bit less if they're going to be more aggressive.

因此，在某些時候這並不是一個不可逾越的差距，但現在，很難確定一些事情。但假設情況介於 5.25 之間，我認為大多數人的目標是 8 左右的 IRR。顯然，這取決於租金成長假設和剩餘資本化率，但在這個最終的某個地方，如果他們想要更激進的話，可能會少一點。

Our next question is going to come from Eric Wolfe from Citi.

我們的下一個問題將由花旗銀行的埃里克·沃爾夫（Eric Wolfe）提出。

It's Nick here with Eric. Maybe just following up on that, so 8-ish or so IRR. I guess more specifically, you talked about obviously the Sunbelt supply and the impact that has on your underwriting on those deals, at least initially. So when you're underwriting deals both on the buy and sell side today, what are you underwriting for IRRs in the Sunbelt? And then what are the IRRs look like for the assets you're planning to sell more coastal.

尼克和埃里克在這裡。也許只是跟進，所以 8 左右 IRR。我想更具體地說，您顯然談到了 Sunbelt 的供應以及對您承銷這些交易的影響，至少在最初是這樣。那麼，當您今天承銷買方和賣方的交易時，您為陽光地帶的 IRR 承保什麼？然後，您計劃在沿海地區出售的資產的 IRR 是什麼樣的？

So I'm sorry, it's not Eric. It's Nick, sorry. It's Alex. And the IRRs don't end up being that different if you assume that sure, there's a glut of apartments in the Sunbelt right now. So the next couple of years are going to be tough. But after that, the starts already down a lot. The demand story hasn't changed. I think there's still these cities that we're interested in, that some of which are Sunbelt cities like Dallas, like Atlanta, like Denver and Austin, still are great job growth generators, still have a great long-term demand side story. So I think you see a couple of years that are tough, but then you have a pretty good few years after that. And I think you run that through your pro forma and you're roughly the same.

所以我很抱歉，這不是艾瑞克。抱歉，我是尼克。是亞歷克斯。如果您假設陽光地帶目前公寓供過於求，那麼內部報酬率最終不會有太大不同。所以接下來的幾年將會很艱難。但在那之後，開局就已經下降了很多。需求故事沒有改變。我認為我們仍然對這些城市感興趣，其中一些是陽光地帶城市，如達拉斯、亞特蘭大、丹佛和奧斯汀，仍然是巨大的就業成長引擎，仍然有很好的長期需求故事。所以我認為你會看到前幾年很艱難，但之後的幾年你會過得很好。我認為你透過你的準備考試來計算一下，你的情況大致相同。

The difference we're seeing on a lot of the things that we're selling right now and why the IRR for us is lower in terms of the hold scenario and why we choose to sell is a lot of it's older stuff. You saw that we're selling 40 years old property and they have very high capital needs. And some of that has their ROI on it. Some of it is just preserving the asset. And there may be a buyer that sees things differently, sees a little more upside. But in our case, we think the capital is better used elsewhere. So in our eyes, it's probably a 7-ish something or other. And we think that money can be redeployed better elsewhere.

我們現在正在出售的許多東西都存在差異，以及為什麼我們的內部收益率在持有情況下較低，以及為什麼我們選擇出售許多舊東西。您看到我們正在出售 40 年歷史的房產，而他們的資金需求非常高。其中一些有投資回報率。其中一些只是為了保護資產。可能會有買家有不同的看法，看到更多的好處。但就我們而言，我們認為資金最好用在其他地方。所以在我們看來，它可能是 7 左右的東西。我們認為資金可以更好地重新部署到其他地方。

It's Eric. Sorry to keep switching people on you. But maybe just talking about coastal rent growth for a second. You talked about supply being in check, homeownership very unaffordable, solid real wage growth, job growth, okay, maybe getting a little slower. But I guess the question is, why aren't we seeing stronger rent growth today just given all of those positive dynamics? And is there anything that you think in the future would turn it around that you see that sort of more than 3% type rent growth in those coastal markets.

是埃里克。很抱歉讓你不斷地換人。但也許只是談談沿海租金成長。你談到供應受到控制，住房所有權非常難以負擔，實際工資增長穩定，就業增長，好吧，也許會放緩一些。但我想問題是，考慮到所有這些積極的動態，為什麼我們今天沒有看到更強勁的租金成長？您認為未來有什麼事情會扭轉局面嗎？您會看到這些沿海市場的租金成長超過 3%。

Eric, it's Mark. Just to start, and the others can contribute. I mean you look at the numbers in D.C. and Boston and New York last year were outstanding. So we're being thoughtful. We're being a little cautious going into a volatile year. But your restatement of the setup is correct. I mean those Northeast markets have steady demand by and large, minimal supply or in DC's case, strong absorption characteristics. I mean we're optimistic those markets can continue to do well. In some cases, like New York and Michael alluded to that, they're coming off really big rent growth years. In some cases, there's a little bit of a pause to catch our breath and let resident incomes grow to catch up to rental growth. But I mean, we're -- if you didn't get that message we're super optimistic about the Northeast markets, and I think they will do very well. It's just trying to handicap all the various cross currents in the economy that are challenging for us.

艾瑞克，我是馬克。剛開始，其他人可以做出貢獻。我的意思是，你看看去年華盛頓特區、波士頓和紐約的數字非常出色。所以我們要深思熟慮。進入動盪的一年，我們有點謹慎。但您對設定的重述是正確的。我的意思是，東北市場總體上需求穩定，供應量極少，或者就華盛頓而言，具有很強的吸收特徵。我的意思是，我們對這些市場能夠繼續表現良好持樂觀態度。在某些情況下，就像紐約和邁克爾提到的那樣，他們正在經歷租金大幅增長的年份。在某些情況下，我們需要稍事休息，讓居民收入成長趕上租金成長。但我的意思是，如果你沒有得到這個訊息，我們對東北市場非常樂觀，我認為他們會做得很好。它只是試圖阻止經濟中對我們構成挑戰的各種逆流。

Our next question is going to come from Jeff Spector from Bank of America.

我們的下一個問題將來自美國銀行的傑夫·斯佩克特。

Great. Thank you. My first question is a follow-up. I heard a comment and I think it was on the Sunbelt, "it could be a couple of tough years." I guess, can you expand on that? And then maybe most important is talk about when you expect supply pressure to peak, let's say, in Seattle. And I know again, Sunbelt is smaller markets for you, but if you have a view on the Sunbelt, it would be appreciated. Thank you.

偉大的。謝謝。我的第一個問題是後續問題。我聽到一條評論，我認為是關於陽光地帶的，“這可能是艱難的幾年。”我想，你能擴展一下嗎？然後也許最重要的是談論您預計供應壓力何時達到峰值，比方說，在西雅圖。我再次知道，陽光地帶對您來說是較小的市場，但如果您對陽光地帶有看法，我們將不勝感激。謝謝。

Jeff, this is Michael. So I'll start. And just specific to the Seattle and the supply that we see, it is back-half loaded for us in the market with basically a lot of concentration in Redmond as well as the city of Seattle. So for us, like the peak is what we expect to experience is going to be somewhere in that back half of this year. And you could already see the starts coming way down. So I think the level of competitive pressure that we face in '25 in Seattle will be less than what we're facing in '24.

傑夫，這是麥可。那我就開始吧。就西雅圖和我們看到的供應而言，市場上的供應量已經達到了一半，基本上集中在雷德蒙和西雅圖市。因此，對我們來說，我們預計會在今年下半年的某個地方經歷高峰。你已經可以看到開工率正在下降。所以我認為我們在西雅圖 25 年面臨的競爭壓力程度將小於我們在 24 年面臨的競爭壓力。

Relative to the Sunbelt, I mean, this is a great question because it's going to take a while to absorb the units that are coming to this market. And the supply that we look at is fairly constant across many of the Sunbelt markets all year long by quarter, which tells us that and what I said in the prepared remarks that we expect to feel this pressure at our assets all year long. I think as you turn the corner and you get into '25 you're going to start to see that supply number slow down, but you are still going to have a little bit of the overhang of the pressure from the units that were delivered to the market in '24.

我的意思是，相對於陽光地帶，這是一個很好的問題，因為吸收進入這個市場的單位需要一段時間。我們觀察到的許多陽光地帶市場的供應全年按季度相當穩定，這告訴我們這一點以及我在準備好的評論中所說的，我們預計我們的資產全年都會感受到這種壓力。我認為，當你轉過彎，進入 25 年時，你將開始看到供應數量放緩，但你仍然會受到交付給單位的壓力的一點影響。24 年的市場。

Yes. I'm just going to add a little bit to that. If you look at '25 expected deliveries and some stuff from '24 will definitely slip. I mean, it's about as big as '23's delivery. So it's not like '25 is an incredible decline. So what we really see, Jeff, as we look at this is still good demand in those markets. That's why we like Dallas, Fort Worth, Denver, Austin and Atlanta. But the supply picture in our experience will spend this whole year with declining new lease rates, occupancy pressure, all of those things. And you as an investor and an analyst may start to see improvement in that so-called second derivative of rent growth late this year, beginning of '25, but same-store revenue growth in our experience will be worse than '25, not in '24 because all those leases that are being rewritten will go through the rent roll and so you may be more optimistic in '25, but your numbers actually likely will be worse.

是的。我只想補充一點。如果你看看 25 年的預期交貨量，24 年的一些東西肯定會下滑。我的意思是，它大約和 23 年的交付量一樣大。所以25年的下滑並不是難以置信。傑夫，我們真正看到的是，這些市場的需求仍然很好。這就是為什麼我們喜歡達拉斯、沃斯堡、丹佛、奧斯汀和亞特蘭大。但根據我們的經驗，整個一年的供應將伴隨著新租賃率下降、入住壓力等等。作為投資者和分析師，您可能會在今年稍後（即25 年初）開始看到所謂的租金增長二階導數的改善，但根據我們的經驗，同店收入增長將比25 年更糟糕，而不是在2019 年。 '24 因為所有那些被重寫的租約都將進入租金清單，所以你可能會在 '25 更加樂觀，但你的數字實際上可能會更糟。

So that's what we've seen with supply in our history across our markets. And then we don't really see why it'd be any different here. And I think the wildcard is if you have incredible job growth in these markets, you may be able to absorb some of the supply more efficiently and get through it more quickly. But the idea that '24 is the only oversupplied year is kind of a tough one for us to accept.

這就是我們歷史上各個市場的供應情況。然後我們真的不明白為什麼這裡會有所不同。我認為通配符是，如果這些市場的就業成長令人難以置信，你也許能夠更有效地吸收一些供應並更快地完成它。但「24 年是唯一一個供應過剩的年份」這個想法對我們來說有點難以接受。

That's very helpful. And is that why you're assuming acquisitions in the second half? Or is that just conservative approach, I guess, to the guidance on acquisitions or to your point, are you really expecting these opportunities to arise more second half '25 in your expansion markets.

這非常有幫助。這就是您假設下半年進行收購的原因嗎？或者，我想，對於收購指導或您的觀點來說，這只是保守的方法，您是否真的期望這些機會在 25 年下半年在您的擴張市場中出現。

Well, the guidance is just to help you model. If Alex can buy things and his team earlier at good prices, we'll buy them earlier. The relationship, I think you're going to see here is that prices now seem okay, maybe not quite good enough, but the discount to basis, the replacement cost, pardon me, is very good. It's the cap rate. And when you look at like 2 years of declining rental growth, you buy in Dallas, your year 2 number might be lower your cap rate than your year 1. But on the other hand, later this year, you'll be past some of that and your year 2 number will look a little better, but you're likely paying a higher price.

嗯，指導只是為了幫助您建模。如果亞歷克斯可以早點以優惠的價格購買東西和他的團隊，我們就會早點購買。我想你會在這裡看到的關係是，現在的價格看起來還不錯，也許還不夠好，但是基本折扣，重置成本，對不起，非常好。這是上限利率。當你看到租金成長連續兩年下降時，你在達拉斯購買，你的第二年的數字可能會低於你的第一年的上限利率。但另一方面，今年晚些時候，你將超過一些那個和你的第二年的數字看起來會好一點，但你可能會付出更高的價格。

So that's what you're going to see us navigate. We like these markets long term. We think owning the four markets that we've tabbed as our expansion markets, say, 25% of the company will create more balance and drive growth better and reduce volatility over time, Jeff. But getting into them is a little bit of an art. There's going to be a little bit that we probably do sooner, a little bit we do later. And you may feel better about the price in one and not as good about the revenue growth in the other and vice versa. But we're prepared to do that. And again, the number you see there is just sort of the guidance assumption. We'd be happy to do more if we can find more.

這就是您將看到的我們的導航。我們長期看好這些市場。傑夫，我們認為，擁有我們指定為擴張市場的四個市場，例如公司 25% 的股份，將創造更多的平衡，更好地推動成長，並隨著時間的推移減少波動性。但進入它們是一門藝術。有些事情我們可能會早點做，有些事情我們會晚點做。您可能對其中一種產品的價格感覺更好，而對另一種產品的收入成長感覺不太好，反之亦然。但我們準備這樣做。再說一次，你看到的數字只是一種指導假設。如果我們能找到更多，我們很樂意做更多事情。

Our next question is to come from Robyn Luu from Green Street.

我們的下一個問題是來自 Green Street 的 Robyn Luu。

Good morning. I just want to touch on taxes. From your conversations with cities, are you hearing any markets where lower values are starting to flow through to tax assessments?

早安.我只想談談稅收。從您與城市的對話中，您是否聽到任何市場的較低價值開始流入稅務評估？

Robyn, it's Bob. Thanks for the question. We are seeing lower values in some markets. In fact, we've gotten some assessed values actually back already as we look at 2024. And on the margin, you are seeing some decreases. So for instance, in Washington state, we saw about a 1% decrease, and we've got most of the values back there, and we're seeing it in other places. Obviously, the income -- as assessors look at values, the income production in 2023 was really quite good. But the offset there was really the cap rate change just given risk-free rates and other things. And so we are seeing some acknowledgment by assessors that values are in fact lower than what they had initially assessed at. The open item, as you think about real estate taxes for 2024 will be where rate comes. And we have rates in some places, and we'll see where they fall out in others.

羅賓，是鮑伯。謝謝你的提問。我們發現一些市場的價值較低。事實上，當我們展望 2024 年時，我們實際上已經得到了一些評估值。而且在邊際上，你會看到一些下降。例如，在華盛頓州，我們看到了大約 1% 的下降，我們在那裡得到了大部分價值，我們在其他地方也看到了這一點。顯然，從評估者的角度來看，2023 年的收入確實相當不錯。但在考慮到無風險利率和其他因素的情況下，實際的抵銷作用實際上是資本化率的變化。因此，我們看到評估人員承認價值實際上低於他們最初的評估值。當你考慮 2024 年的房地產稅時，未解決的問題將是稅率的產生。我們在某些​​地方制定了利率，我們將看看其他地方的利率情況如何。

So the magnitude of where values have fallen in, let's call it, the last couple of years haven't really fully been baked in yet. They're still sort of trickling into tax assessment. Is that how I can conclude correctly?

所以，我們可以這麼說，過去幾年的價值下跌幅度還沒有真正完全體現出來。它們仍然在某種程度上進入稅收評估。這樣我就能得出正確的結論嗎？

You are correct, and that makes for an excellent appeal activity for our real estate tax team as we challenge values.

您是對的，當我們挑戰價值觀時，這為我們的房地產稅務團隊提供了極好的吸引力活動。

I'm glad I could help. Just on the second question, I did obviously noticed that you did some stock repurchases in the market after a long period of a pause, with, I guess, a little lesser spend in development and no near-term debt maturities, are you expecting -- or how does buybacks ran against other capital uses this year, particularly on the way that you've -- the cadence between dispositions and acquisitions for '24?

我很高興能幫上忙。關於第二個問題，我確實注意到，在長時間的停頓之後，您在市場上進行了一些股票回購，我猜，開發支出有所減少，並且沒有近期債務到期，您是否期望 - -或者今年的回購與其他資本用途的比較如何，特別是在你的方式上- '24 的處置和收購之間的節奏？

Robyn, it's Mark. Thanks for that question. Our primary capital allocation goal is going to remain building out the portfolio in the way I just described in these expansion markets and lowering exposure in Washington, D.C., New York and California. Again, we believe that portfolio will create the highest returns over time, the lowest volatility and that, that will make the shareholders the most money in the long haul.

羅賓，是馬克。謝謝你提出這個問題。我們的主要資本配置目標將繼續以我剛才在這些擴張市場中描述的方式建立投資組合，並降低在華盛頓特區、紐約和加州的風險敞口。我們再次相信，隨著時間的推移，投資組合將創造最高的回報、最低的波動性，而從長遠來看，這將使股東獲得最多的錢。

All that said, we're going to continue to consider these share buybacks especially when you get this big value dislocation and when you can fund it with assets that are the least desirable among the least desirable in the portfolio against the portfolio that we think is really top notch. And we're -- there isn't a lot to buy. That's an important other ingredient. There wasn't a lot of opportunity cost here. There wasn't a lot else available to buy at prices that made sense. And all those capital structure considerations have to be thought about too, we've talked about on these calls, things like does it create a lot of tax gain, that's hard for a REIT to manage. That worked out okay for us. Bob has done a great job and his team on the balance sheet. So I don't have to worry about debt maturities that we need to kind of husband our capital.

話雖如此，我們將繼續考慮這些股票回購，特別是當你出現這種巨大的價值錯位時，並且當你可以用投資組合中最不理想的資產（與我們認為的投資組合相比）中最不理想的資產為其提供資金時真的是一流的。我們——沒有太多東西可以買。這是另一個重要的成分。這裡沒有太多的機會成本。沒有太多其他東西可以以合理的價格購買。所有這些資本結構考量也必須考慮，我們在這些電話會議上討論過，例如它是否會產生大量稅收收益，這對於房地產投資信託基金來說是很難管理的。這對我們來說效果很好。鮑伯和他的團隊在資產負債表上做得很好。所以我不必擔心我們需要節省資本的債務到期日。

And another thing I want to introduce is you got to be careful about platform scaling, if you sell too many assets, you can really increase your overhead as a percentage of revenue. But all that said, the Board and the management team remain open to buybacks. And for us, it's hard for you to give you a formula. We're just going to kind of see what market conditions are, where the stock goes, what's out there to buy and keep our mind open to doing more stock buybacks.

我想介紹的另一件事是，你必須小心平台擴展，如果你出售太多資產，你的管理費用佔收入的百分比確實會增加。但儘管如此，董事會和管理團隊仍然對回購持開放態度。而對我們來說，你很難給你一個公式。我們只是要看看市場狀況如何，股票走向何方，有哪些股票值得購買，並對更多股票回購保持開放態度。

Our next question is going to come from Michael Goldsmith from UBS.

我們的下一個問題將來自瑞銀集團的麥可‧戈德史密斯。

My first question kind of dovetails off of Jeff's one. And if you kind of slice your portfolio between kind of core coastal San Francisco and Seattle and then expansion markets. You talked quite a bit about just the -- when you're expecting to see the second derivative and basically how long it's going to take for the expansion markets to recover. Can you put some more context around San Francisco and Seattle, how that time line compares? And if you're starting to see some of that second derivative recovery now or expect to see it in the near future.

我的第一個問題與傑夫的問題有點吻合。如果你將你的投資組合劃分為核心沿海舊金山和西雅圖，然後擴展市場。你談了很多關於——當你期望看到二階導數時，以及擴張市場恢復需要多長時間。您能否提供更多關於舊金山和西雅圖的背景信息，以及時間線的比較情況？如果您現在開始看到二階導數的一些復甦，或者預計在不久的將來會看到它。

Michael, it's Mark. And I think Michael Manelis may have something to add here. So we talked a lot about San Francisco on the call, the last one and why we like the market long term, feel the same way. The management team thinks there's going to be elongated recovery in that market. Conditions on the ground are a lot better. The mayor put out some information about crime reductions. They have the biggest class of police cadets at the Police Academy in San Francisco they've had since before the pandemic. So there's some good things going on. But until as Michael said, we get a little more tech job growth which talking to the team and talking to others in the Bay Area and in the city of San Francisco is probably a more later '24, '25 thing. That's probably where you get rent to take off.

邁克爾，是馬克。我認為邁克爾·馬內利斯可能有一些補充。所以我們在電話會議上談論了很多關於舊金山的事情，最後一個以及為什麼我們長期看好這個市場，我也有同樣的感覺。管理團隊認為該市場將出現長期復甦。地面條件好得多。市長發布了一些有關減少犯罪的資訊。舊金山警察學院擁有自疫情爆發前以來規模最大的警察學員班。所以有一些好的事情正在發生。但直到正如邁克爾所說，我們得到了更多的技術工作成長，與團隊交談以及與灣區和舊金山市的其他人交談可能是 24、25 年以後的事情。這可能就是你獲得租金起飛的地方。

But the thing I want you to think about is you've had spectacular growth in incomes in the Bay Area since 2019, over 30% nominal and 12% or 13% on a real basis, yet our rents are down in the city of San Francisco, 20% since 2019 and kind of flattish to up marginally in the Bay Area. So this is a market that, like New York can really take off once you get some job growth because there isn't a lot of new supply, housing costs are pretty high. So the management team is optimistic about the recovery, the timing is kind of tough. I don't know, Michael, if you've got anything you want to add?

但我想讓你考慮的是，自 2019 年以來，灣區的收入增長驚人，名義收入增長超過 30%，實際收入增長 12% 或 13%，但聖市的租金卻下降了。弗朗西斯科，自2019 年以來成長了20%，灣區則略有上升。因此，這個市場就像紐約一樣，一旦就業成長了一些，就可以真正起飛，因為沒有大量的新供應，但住房成本相當高。因此，管理團隊對復甦持樂觀態度，但時機有點難。邁克爾，我不知道你還有什麼要補充的嗎？

Yes. I mean I think we expect these markets to be volatile this year. And just starting off the year right now, I got both markets at 96%. We issued a lot of concessions in the fourth quarter to get there. But the fact that we got there shows us there is demand in the marketplace. And as we think about even like the new lease change. So both of those markets reported in December about a negative 8% new lease change. When you look at the January results, they're now both at about a negative 3.5%. So it's a pretty material shift.

是的。我的意思是，我認為我們預計今年這些市場將會波動。今年剛開始，我在兩個市場的佔有率為 96%。為了實現這一目標，我們在第四季做出了很多讓步。但我們到達那裡的事實表明市場上有需求。正如我們所考慮的，甚至像新的租約變化一樣。因此，這兩個市場在 12 月都報告了約 8% 的新租約變化。當您查看 1 月的結果時，您會發現它們現在的成長率均為負 3.5% 左右。所以這是一個相當重大的轉變。

So the setup heading into the spring leasing season is really good. But we've been there before, and we've seen those markets kind of hit a pause and then kind of retrench a little bit. So that's why we're just being a little cautious. We're going to wait until we see probably a couple of consecutive quarters of improving fundamentals before we kind of change some of our long-term kind of modeling on those markets. The other thing I would just add besides the value proposition at San Francisco is Seattle benefits from having like the lowest rent-to-income ratios out of all of our coastal markets. So we just see this opportunity and the fundamentals for those markets to recover. It's just like Mark said, it's hard to pinpoint when.

因此，進入春季租賃季節的設置非常好。但我們以前也經歷過這種情況，我們看到這些市場先是暫停，然後又稍微收縮。所以這就是為什麼我們只是有點謹慎。我們將等到基本面可能連續幾季改善後，才會改變這些市場的一些長期模型。除了舊金山的價值主張之外，我要補充的另一件事是西雅圖受益於我們所有沿海市場中最低的租金與收入比率。因此，我們只是看到了這個機會以及這些市場復甦的基本面。就像馬克說的，很難確定是什麼時候。

Yes. I forgot to mention something on Seattle, I just want to throw out there. Seattle's nominal wage growth since 2019 is 40%, right? Yet our rents in that market are up 7% and downtown, they're flat. So again, these markets have the ability to pay more for great quality housing. And again, Seattle is a supply push this year. But after that, it gets a lot lighter. So that's about 1/3 of our portfolio, Seattle and San Francisco, and I hope, Michael, we're talking about that second derivative towards the end of this year for you, but we haven't embedded that into our guidance.

是的。我忘了提到西雅圖的事情，我只是想把它丟掉。自2019年以來西雅圖的名目薪資成長是40%，對嗎？然而我們在該市場的租金上漲了 7%，而市中心則持平。同樣，這些市場有能力為優質住房支付更多費用。西雅圖今年再次推動供應。但在那之後，它變得輕了很多。因此，西雅圖和舊金山大約占我們投資組合的 1/3，邁克爾，我希望我們會在今年年底為您討論二階導數，但我們尚未將其納入我們的指導中。

Got it. Very helpful, guys. And then my second question is just related to bad debt as a percentage of revenue, it was flat sequentially. I think there's an expectation that it could be choppy, but continue to trend down. So what's assumed in guidance for 2024? And do you expect a continued slow and steady pace of improvement? Or should we expect that to kind of to get better in a specific quarter or just any sort of visibility around the piecing of improvement?

知道了。非常有幫助，夥計們。然後我的第二個問題與壞帳佔收入的百分比有關，它連續持平。我認為人們預計它可能會波動，但會繼續呈下降趨勢。那麼 2024 年指導方針中的假設是什麼？您是否期望持續緩慢而穩定的進步？或者我們應該期望這種情況在特定季度有所改善，或者只是圍繞改進的任何形式的可見性？

Yes. I'll grab that. Michael, it's Bob. So to start with what's assumed in guidance, we do assume that we will get -- we will improve. So we ended the year at, call it, 1.4% of bad debt as a percentage of same-store revenue. I think I said in my remarks, we expect to get to 1% -- a little over 1% for the full year. That means that by the fourth quarter, we're assuming that we're sub 1%.

是的。我會抓住那個。邁克爾，是鮑伯。因此，從指導中的假設開始，我們確實假設我們會得到改進。因此，我們年底的壞帳佔同店收入的比例為 1.4%。我想我在演講中說過，我們預計全年將達到 1%——略高於 1%。這意味著到第四季度，我們假設這一比例低於 1%。

You're correct in the kind of 3Q to 4Q in 2023 being flattish. And what I would caution and is that it is -- this is a thing that is very hard to predict because of the court systems. It has puts and takes. It is more of a step function than a linear kind of improvement function associated with it. So our expectations and guidance is that Q1, which we're in right now is more flattish and that you started seeing improvement later in Q2, Q3 and Q4, because of that kind of pace of the court system and because there's always been a little bit of seasonality in this number. As you think about like post holidays, bad debt in the first quarter is always -- are typically a little bit higher anyways. So expect a little bit of a choppy step function, but expect improvement overall.

你說的 2023 年第三季到第四季持平的說法是正確的。我要提醒的是，由於法院系統的原因，這是一件很難預測的事情。它有投入和投入。它更像是一個階躍函數，而不是與其相關的線性改進函數。因此，我們的期望和指導是，我們現在所處的第一季度更加平坦，並且您在第二季度、第三季度和第四季度之後開始看到改善，因為法院系統的這種節奏，而且總是有一點這個數字有點季節性。當你想到假期後時，第一季的壞帳總是——通常會稍微高一些。因此，預計階躍函數會有點不穩定，但整體會有所改善。

Our next question is going to come from Jamie Feldman from Wells Fargo.

我們的下一個問題將來自富國銀行的傑米·費爾德曼。

Great. So I guess just thinking about your comments on Sunbelt versus coastal. You think about the assets you bought last quarter 1 year old, selling assets that are 40 years old. How much of your view on those markets is tied to just the types of assets you own? Are these -- if they're newer assets, are they in lease-up, where it means you have more concessions, more challenging to get leased up. Is there some of that bias in the numbers you're putting out? Or would you say your view of what you're seeing in coastal is truly viewed across the markets?

偉大的。所以我想只是想一下您對陽光地帶與沿海地區的評論。你想想你上個季度買了 1 年的資產，賣了 40 年的資產。您對這些市場的看法有多少與您所擁有的資產類型有關？這些是——如果它們是較新的資產，它們是否處於租賃狀態，這意味著你有更多的優惠，租賃起來更具挑戰性。您發布的數字是否存在一些偏差？或者您會說您對沿海地區所看到的情況的看法也真實地反映了整個市場的情況？

Yes. Thanks for that question, Jamie. I guess I attack in another way by certainly lease-ups are different. But remember, the numbers we're telling you are same-store numbers, so they won't include lease-up conversations. But I would say we have relatively small portfolios in those markets. So if one property is being hit hard, it could be one out of eight of our same-store assets in Denver. So I think that is it. I think different people, obviously, different parts of the market feel it differently. So that would be my comment. We have relatively small portfolios. I mean, Austin, we have three same-store assets. So...

是的。謝謝你提出這個問題，傑米。我想我會以另一種方式攻擊，租賃肯定是不同的。但請記住，我們告訴您的數字是同店數字，因此不包括租賃對話。但我想說的是，我們在這些市場的投資組合相對較小。因此，如果一處房產受到嚴重打擊，它可能是我們在丹佛的八個同店資產中的其中之一。所以我認為就是這樣。我認為不同的人，顯然，市場的不同部分有不同的感受。這就是我的評論。我們的投資組合相對較小。我的意思是，奧斯汀，我們有三個同店資產。所以...

And Jamie, this is Alex. I would just add that when you're in a market, though, that's got so much supply, and these are historic amounts where concession levels start to get more than 2 months or really excessive I think everyone gets impacted, whether you're a B property or an A property. I can't see how you're immune from some of that pressure.

傑米，這是亞歷克斯。我想補充一點，當你進入市場時，供應量如此之大，而且這些都是歷史性的數量，其中優惠水平開始超過2 個月或真的過高，我認為每個人都會受到影響，無論你是B 屬性或 A 屬性。我不明白你怎麼能免受這種壓力。

Okay. That's very helpful. And then as we think about the investment market, I mean, clearly, the debt markets are coming back pretty quickly. We've now seen some real estate M&A. So I assume competition is going to get harder for the types of assets you'd like to acquire in '24 and beyond. How do you think about the importance of just transitioning the portfolio as soon as you can versus really hitting that right number? Do you think maybe your underwriting assumptions have to loosen up a little bit, just so you can achieve some of your strategic goals over the next couple of years if the market gets more competitive?

好的。這非常有幫助。然後，當我們考慮投資市場時，我的意思是，債務市場顯然正在迅速恢復。我們現在已經看到了一些房地產併購。因此，我認為對於您想要在 24 年及以後收購的資產類型來說，競爭將會變得更加激烈。您如何看待盡快轉變投資組合與真正達到正確數字的重要性？您是否認為您的核保假設必須放鬆一點，以便在市場競爭更加激烈的情況下，您可以在未來幾年實現一些策略目標？

We're -- we'd love to move more quickly in completing our repositioning. I don't feel any need to do that by selling assets cheap. I think you'll continue to see us, pardon me, sell assets that are a little bit less desirable from our point of view. It's more about the difference, Jamie, between the sale and the buy. If we can sell things well, we can pay up a little bit on the buy side. And again, we're creating that diversification, we value. So it's a little bit about if we're doing trading like that, it's going to depend on both the sale price and the buy price. The extent we try and expand the company through debt activities, then the interest rate that Bob is borrowing at is going to become more relevant. So I think right now would be somewhere in the neighborhood of 5% for 10-year money.

我們希望能夠更快完成重新定位。我認為沒有必要透過廉價出售資產來做到這一點。我認為您會繼續看到我們，請原諒我，出售從我們的角度來看不太理想的資產。傑米，這更多的是關於銷售和購買之間的區別。如果我們能賣得好，我們就可以向買方支付一點錢。再說一次，我們正在創造我們所重視的多元化。因此，如果我們進行這樣的交易，這將取決於銷售價格和購買價格。我們嘗試透過債務活動擴大公司的規模，那麼鮑伯借款的利率就會變得更加相關。所以我認為現在 10 年期的利率應該在 5% 左右。

So well, that's helpful, but we'd like to move faster. We point out that since 2019, when we started this, we've moved billions of dollars of capital into those markets, but the transaction markets have been closed for half of the last 4.5 years because of COVID and because of the Fed. So we're hopeful that in a wide open year, I mean we did, I think, $1.7 billion back in '22. We're capable of doing $2 billion plus a year for sure. if the opportunities present themselves and we push the gas hard, it's got to make some sense. De minimis dilution is one thing. Wholesale dilution would require some sort of justification that we could get on this call, and you all would feel was compelling.

好吧，這很有幫助，但我們希望行動更快。我們指出，自 2019 年開始以來，我們已將數十億美元的資金轉移到這些市場，但由於新冠疫情和聯準會，交易市場在過去 4.5 年的一半時間裡一直處於關閉狀態。因此，我們希望在一個開放的一年裡，我認為我們在 22 年賺了 17 億美元。我們肯定有能力每年創造 20 億美元以上的收入。如果機會出現並且我們大力推動，那麼它一定是有意義的。最低限度的稀釋是一回事。批發稀釋需要某種我們可以在這次電話會議上得到的理由，而且你們都會覺得很有說服力。

Okay. So it sounds like it's more about the dilution than it is the absolute cap rate or the absolute IRR.

好的。因此，聽起來更多的是稀釋而不是絕對資本化率或絕對內部報酬率。

We would accept some dilution to complete our strategic repositioning. The IRR matters. I mean these deals got to make sense. We like owning newer assets because we'll have less capital. At the end of the day, the portfolios we will own in Atlanta, Dallas, Denver and Austin will be the youngest portfolios of our REIT competitors. We think that's beneficial to our shareholders on the IRR CapEx side, not just on the NOI side.

我們會接受一些稀釋以完成我們的策略重新定位。 IRR 很重要。我的意思是這些交易必須有意義。我們喜歡擁有更新的資產，因為我們的資本會更少。最終，我們將在亞特蘭大、達拉斯、丹佛和奧斯汀擁有的投資組合將成為我們的房地產投資信託競爭對手中最年輕的投資組合。我們認為這對 IRR 資本支出方面的股東有利，而不僅僅是 NOI 方面。

So yes, we want to push the gas on this. We want to move this along. The IRR matters, the cap rate matters, dilution matters, but getting it done matters a lot.

所以，是的，我們想推動這件事。我們希望繼續推動這項舉措。內部報酬率很重要，資本化率很重要，稀釋很重要，但完成這些事情更重要。

Our next question is going to come from Brad Heffern from RBC.

我們的下一個問題將來自加拿大皇家銀行 (RBC) 的布拉德·赫芬 (Brad Heffern)。

In the prepared comments, you mentioned some increased price sensitivity in New York late in the year. Can you add some color on that and talk about what gives you confidence to rank that market relatively high for 2024.

在準備好的評論中，您提到今年稍後紐約的價格敏感度有所提高。您能否對此添加一些色彩，並談談是什麼讓您有信心在 2024 年將該市場排名相對靠前。

Brad, this is Michael. So I think in the prepared remarks, I was saying we saw just that the overall market level, there was what I would describe as just like rent fatigue, where you started to see certain types of units, one bedrooms all of a sudden hit a price point at like $4,000. And it's just kind of the activity level slowed, the renewal conversations became a little bit more challenging.

布拉德，這是麥可。因此，我認為在準備好的發言中，我是說我們看到了整體市場水平，我將其描述為就像租金疲勞一樣，你開始看到某些類型的單位，一間臥室突然間達到了價格點約為4,000 美元。只是活動水準有所放緩，更新對話變得更具挑戰性。

So I would say we still expect pretty good growth out of New York in 2024. We're just saying we're tempering those expectations a little bit. The fundamentals there would all suggest that you have pretty good pricing power all year long because you have almost little to no competitive supply in Manhattan. You've got good demand drivers in those markets. But I just think we're realistic that we've had two really good years of rent growth of rate growth that we're just kind of saying, okay, let's just take a pause on that. And let's wait until the spring leasing season shows us exactly what the market is willing to absorb.

所以我想說，我們仍然預計 2024 年紐約將出現相當好的成長。我們只是說我們正在稍微緩和這些預期。那裡的基本面都表明你全年都擁有相當好的定價能力，因為曼哈頓幾乎沒有競爭性供應。這些市場有良好的需求驅動因素。但我認為我們現實的是，我們已經經歷了兩年非常好的租金成長和利率成長，我們只是說，好吧，讓我們暫停一下。讓我們等到春季租賃季節向我們展示市場到底願意吸收什麼。

Okay. Got it. And as a follow on to your earlier comments about wage growth on the West Coast versus where rent has gone, I guess, how much of that opens up an opportunity for future rent growth versus how much of that just reflects that those markets have become unaffordable before the downturn, and they've been semi-permanently repriced.

好的。知道了。作為您之前關於西海岸工資增長與租金上漲情況的評論的後續，我想，其中有多少為未來租金增長提供了機會，而有多少只是反映了這些市場已經變得難以承受在經濟衰退之前，它們已經半永久性地重新定價。

I guess we'll see. Our sense, again, from all our comments on San Francisco and Seattle is that they still are appealing places for our demographic to live that people will want to live in the center of those cities and the whole market. And that I don't know about some sort of wholesale repricing. You saw New York recover smartly on the rent side, and there's some deals going on in the investment sales market that would support New York trading at a lower cap rate as it historically has than the national average. So I think the story is yet to be told on the West Coast markets because there's just no one selling in the urban centers, but I don't think there's an answer to that. But I think the appeal of those centers is true and obvious and will come, and we've kind of given you our view of that.

我想我們會看到的。從我們對舊金山和西雅圖的所有評論中我們再次感覺到，它們仍然是我們人口居住的有吸引力的地方，人們希望居住在這些城市和整個市場的中心。我不知道某種批發重新定價。你可以看到紐約在租金方面的強勁復甦，並且投資銷售市場上正在進行的一些交易將支持紐約以低於全國平均水平的上限利率進行交易。所以我認為這個故事在西海岸市場上還沒有被講述，因為在城市中心沒有人銷售，但我認為這個問題沒有答案。但我認為這些中心的吸引力是真實且明顯的，並且將會到來，我們已經向您提供了我們對此的看法。

Our next question is going to come from Alexander Goldfarb from Piper Sandler.

我們的下一個問題將來自 Piper Sandler 的 Alexander Goldfarb。

Yes. So two questions here. First, on the renewals. In addition to jobs, I guess, renewals also seem to be a wildcard. I realize there's a frictional cost to moving, especially in urban assets. But can you just walk through your views on renewal activity for this year. And it seems like you guys think it will hold up much better than new rents. And I'm sort of curious I would think those same existing residents would see the new rates that newcomers are getting in would want a rent reduction, not a rent increase.

是的。所以這裡有兩個問題。首先，關於續約。我想，除了工作之外，續約似乎也是個通配符。我意識到搬家會產生摩擦成​​本，尤其是在城市資產中。但您能談談您對今年續訂活動的看法嗎？你們似乎認為它會比新租金更好。我有點好奇，我認為那些現有居民會看到新移民的新費率，會希望減租，而不是增加租金。

Yes, Alex, this is Michael. So I think it's a great question. And what I could tell you right now is that the quotes for the next 90 days have already been issued. We do expect to continue to renew about 55% to 60% of our residents and achieve approximately anywhere between a 4% and 4.5% growth, off of about 6% quotes that are out in the marketplace.

是的，亞歷克斯，這是麥可。所以我認為這是一個很好的問題。我現在可以告訴您的是，未來 90 天的報價已經發布。我們確實預計將繼續為約 55% 至 60% 的居民續約，並實現約 4% 至 4.5% 的增長（市場報價約為 6%）。

You got to remember, in the last couple of years, I mean, we put a lot of effort into this renewal process. We've centralized our renewal negotiations that's really helped us navigate the negotiation conversations with residents. We're leveraging all new processes in both the quote generation as well as the negotiations. We're layering in data science to help enhance some of these results. And right now, we do expect renewal performance to be fairly stable but we have modeled for further deceleration like later in the year. So the full year is expected to come in just over 4%, which is still a pretty solid growth, but we do expect to see some deceleration.

你必須記住，在過去的幾年裡，我的意思是，我們在這個更新過程中付出了很多努力。我們集中了續約談判，這確實幫助我們引導了與居民的談判對話。我們在報價生成和談判中都利用了所有新流程。我們正在分層數據科學來幫助增強其中一些結果。目前，我們確實預計續約表現將相當穩定，但我們已經為今年稍後的進一步減速進行了建模。因此，預計全年成長率將略高於 4%，這仍然是一個相當穩健的成長，但我們確實預計會出現一些減速。

And I think when you look at the spreads right now that you see in the markets with new lease change or market pricing and renewals, sure, there's more stickiness when it comes to the renewals. And we have a lot of great, rich history and data going all the way back to like 2006 that shows us that even when markets are dislocating, and I could use a San Francisco back in like 2016, where it was just getting a lot of new supply right on top of us, that market held up pretty well from the renewal standpoint and landed somewhere in that back half of the year with about 2% averages.

我認為，當你看看現在市場上新租約變更或市場定價和續約的價差時，當然，續約方面的黏性更大。我們有很多偉大、豐富的歷史和數據，可以追溯到 2006 年，這些數據向我們表明，即使市場錯位，我也可以使用舊金山，例如 2016 年，當時它剛剛獲得了很多新供應就在我們之上，從更新的角度來看，該市場保持得相當好，並在今年下半年達到了約2% 的平均水平。

So it's not uncommon to see these spreads in the marketplaces. And the other thing, I guess, I would point out is we start getting into '24, our concession use was elevated back in '23. So I can renew a lot of these residents flat in some of these expansion markets or Seattle and San Francisco and still walk away with a 6%, 8% increase on renewals. So it kind of takes away some of the spread that you're looking at and why we have so much confidence in that renewal number being right around 4%.

因此，在市場上看到這些價差並不罕見。我想，我要指出的另一件事是，我們開始進入 24 年，我們的特許權使用量在 23 年有所提高。因此，我可以為這些擴張市場或西雅圖和舊金山的許多居民續租公寓，並且仍然可以獲得 6%、8% 的續租增量。因此，這有點消除了您所看到的一些價差，也是為什麼我們對續訂數字在 4% 左右充滿信心。

Okay. The second question sort of dovetails on the rent fatigue comments. It seems, I mean, using New York as an example, no new supply. People want to be back in the city. And we don't really hear stories anymore about doubling up or even moving to New Jersey, it's still an expensive proposition. So from a pricing perspective, do you feel more comfortable today sort of across your portfolio, especially in markets like New York, in pushing pricing versus years ago when renters -- and I'm not just talking about new supply, but we're doubling up or maybe moving to New Jersey or outer boroughs was something was more of an option. Do you feel like you have more pricing power today to push rents more than historically?

好的。第二個問題與租金疲勞的評論有些吻合。我的意思是，以紐約為例，似乎沒有新的供應。人們想回到城市。我們真的不再聽到有關加倍甚至搬到新澤西州的故事，這仍然是一個昂貴的提議。因此，從定價的角度來看，與幾年前租房者相比，你今天在你的投資組合中感覺更舒服，尤其是在紐約這樣的市場，在推動定價方面——我不僅僅是在談論新的供應，而且我們正在談論新的供應。合住或搬到新澤西州或外圍行政區是更多的選擇。您是否覺得您今天擁有比歷史上更多的定價能力來推高租金？

Yes, Alex, this is Michael. I'll start. Maybe some of you can layer on top of that. I think this is really a market and submarket kind of look. So it really just depends what is the spread? How much is Brooklyn's rents compared to Manhattan? What is that trade-off decision to happen? So I don't know that I'd say I have more pricing powers today than I have had historically. I would say we have really good processes in place today that help us navigate through these situations. And each market is going to deliver different rate growth based on a whole lot of factors that go into the strengths of markets.

是的，亞歷克斯，這是麥可。我開始吧。也許你們中的一些人可以在此之上分層。我認為這確實是一個市場和子市場的樣子。所以這實際上只取決於點差是多少？與曼哈頓相比，布魯克林的租金是多少？會發生什麼權衡決定？所以我不知道我今天擁有比歷史上更多的定價權。我想說，我們今天有非常好的流程來幫助我們應對這些情況。每個市場都將根據市場優勢的眾多因素實現不同的成長率。

And as we look for 2024, all I can say is that the setup feels pretty good. It's like normal. The rents are doing what they seasonally should be doing sequentially building each week. Our application volume is sequentially building each week. I think we need to see that momentum in that early part of the spring leasing season to really be able to answer that question and tell you, do I feel like I got more pricing power or less than historical times.

當我們展望 2024 年時，我只能說，這個設定感覺相當不錯。就像正常的一樣。租金正在按季節應按每週順序依次增加。我們的申請量每週都在持續增加。我認為我們需要看到春季租賃季初期的勢頭，才能真正回答這個問題並告訴你，我覺得我的定價能力比歷史時期更強還是更少。

And our next question is going to come from Rich Anderson from Wedbush.

我們的下一個問題將來自韋德布希的里奇安德森。

So on the topic of expansion markets, is it absolutely a fee simple type of investment? Or would you be open given the sort of the complexities of all the lending environment and all that sort of stuff and some distressed balance sheet distress and whatnot. Would you be willing to invest in different areas of the capital stack with an intention to ultimately own? Or are you going to have enough opportunity to keep it simple and just go through equity channels?

那麼，就拓展市場而言，這絕對是一種簡單的投資類型嗎？或者考慮到所有貸款環境的複雜性以及所有此類問題以及一些不良資產負債表困境等，您是否會持開放態度。您是否願意投資資本堆疊的不同領域並最終擁有？或者你有足夠的機會保持簡單並透過股權管道？

Rich, it's Alex. Well, we prefer simple, if it's available, but if there's a good opportunity, that would require us to participate elsewhere in the capital stack that would lead to us likely owning the property, we're wide open for that as well. So I do think there's going to be a lot of fee simple stuff out there though. So we'll balance that out. But we're happy to talk to anyone that owns a well-located apartment in the expansion markets about any structures they have.

里奇，是亞歷克斯。好吧，我們更喜歡簡單的，如果有的話，但如果有一個好的機會，那就需要我們參與資本堆疊的其他地方，這將導致我們可能擁有該財產，我們也對此持開放態度。所以我確實認為會有很多收費簡單的東西。所以我們會平衡這一點。但我們很樂意與在擴張市場中擁有位置優越的公寓的任何人討論他們擁有的任何結構。

Okay. Great. And then if I could just sort of ask the sort of a different question about what you said, Mark earlier about 2025 being a tougher year in the Sunbelt versus 2024. But then you said something like -- but the second derivative might be thought to be better. I didn't quite understand that, so maybe you can clarify that. But would you say, generally speaking, that the Sunbelt sort of recovery process is maybe a year behind San Francisco and Seattle. Is that like -- does that sort of help define the condition that you see it today?

好的。偉大的。然後，如果我能就你所說的內容問一個不同的問題，馬克早些時候提到，與2024 年相比，2025 年在陽光地帶是更艱難的一年。但後來你說了類似的話，但二階導數可能被認為會更好。我不太明白，所以也許你可以澄清一下。但你會說，一般來說，陽光地帶的復原過程可能比舊金山和西雅圖晚一年。是不是──這種幫助定義了你今天看到的情況？

Yes. What I'm going to say is just how we've seen things play out in our markets. So the first thing that you see as you start to see a decline in occupancy when you get all of this, when you get a lot of supply or a big demand drop or both. So the markets you've seen competitors in the RealPage numbers sort of show declines in occupancy. That pressures owners to give concessions and lower face rate. And then that, in turn, eventually affects same-store revenue. which is, of course, the interplay between occupancy rate renewals and the whole 9 yards. And so when it reverses, the exact opposite happens. First, you start to see on building my occupancy a little as Michael spoke to Seattle and San Francisco, that gives you a little bit of confidence. So now you're going to take away some of your concessions and you're going to try to move rate up a little, especially in the spring leasing season, you're going to test that. As that improves and eventually that will flow through to your same-store revenue number.

是的。我要說的是我們所看到的市場狀況。因此，當你得到所有這些，當你得到大量供應或大幅需求下降或兩者兼而有之時，你看到的第一件事是你開始看到入住率下降。因此，您在 RealPage 數據中看到的競爭對手的市場在某種程度上顯示出入住率的下降。這迫使業主做出讓步並降低面值。然後，這最終會影響同店收入。當然，這是佔用率更新與整個 9 碼之間的相互作用。因此，當情況逆轉時，就會發生完全相反的情況。首先，當麥可在西雅圖和舊金山講話時，你開始看到我的入住率提高，這給了你一點信心。因此，現在您將取消一些讓步，並嘗試將利率提高一點，特別是在春季租賃季節，您將對此進行測試。隨著這種情況的改善，最終將轉化為您的同店收入數字。

So that's what I mean by that comment. So that this year, same-store revenue might hold up better in a heavily supplied market or a demand-challenged market because you're looking at a situation where your rents, you haven't rewritten every lease down yet. But over the course of 2 years, you will. And in that process, that second year same-store revenue number is often lower but we're often telling you, "Hey, you know what, your lease is going up. We're feeling better in a market". And that's what I'm sort of expecting. We'll see how it goes, but my expectation is sometime in '25, folks will be talking about an improvement in some of those, I call it, second derivative, but new lease rates, street rent numbers. And it isn't going to be dramatic right away, but it's sort of some solidification of that that's really built on occupancy starting to improve. So again, you got all this supply, our experience is it compounds. It gets worse before it gets better. And it just takes a little while to run through the entire P&L. Is that helpful, Rich?

這就是我的評論的意思。因此，今年，在供應充足的市場或需求挑戰的市場中，同店收入可能會保持得更好，因為你正在考慮租金的情況，你還沒有重寫每一個租約。但經過兩年的時間，你就會的。在這個過程中，第二年的同店收入通常會較低，但我們經常告訴您，「嘿，您知道嗎，您的租金正在上漲。我們在市場上感覺更好」。這就是我所期待的。我們會看看事情進展如何，但我的期望是在 25 年的某個時候，人們會談論其中一些方面的改進，我稱之為二階導數，但新的租賃率、街道租金數字。這不會立即發生戲劇性的變化，但它確實是建立在入住率開始改善的基礎上的某種鞏固。再說一次，你得到了所有這些供應，我們的經驗是它是複合的。在好轉之前，情況會變得更糟。而且只要一點時間就能跑完整個損益表。這樣有幫助嗎，里奇？

Yes, that's really helpful. And then would you then sort of characterize Sunbelt as being x money months behind San Francisco, Seattle, would you -- is it a year in your mind if you were to sort of simplify it?

是的，這確實很有幫助。然後你會不會把陽光地帶描述為比舊金山、西雅圖落後x個月，如果你要簡化它，你會認為是一年嗎？

I don't have a prediction on that. We told you we didn't put San Francisco and Seattle in this year's improvement bucket. I have high hopes, but it feels like because of supply in Seattle and just job conditions in San Francisco, it could take a little longer. And I think the Sunbelt is just starting its challenges. So I think both areas will be a little challenged in '24.

我對此沒有預測。我們告訴過您，我們沒有將舊金山和西雅圖納入今年的改進範圍。我抱有很高的期望，但感覺由於西雅圖的供應和舊金山的工作條件，可能需要更長的時間。我認為陽光地帶的挑戰才剛開始。所以我認為這兩個領域在 24 年都會面臨一些挑戰。

And our next caller is going to be John Kim from BMO Capital Markets.

我們的下一個來電者將是來自 BMO 資本市場的 John Kim。

On your blended lease growth improvement in January, can you comment on how you think these trends for the remainder of the quarter? I realize you expect it to improve in the second quarter. And if there's any discrepancies in the market performance versus what you had in the fourth quarter as shown in Page 17 of resettlement?

關於一月份混合租賃成長的改善，您能否評論一下您如何看待本季剩餘時間的這些趨勢？我知道您預計第二季情況會有所改善。市場表現與移民安置第17頁第四季的情況是否有差異？

John, this is Michael. I could start with that. So I mean, I think as you look at this, and I've cited before, just the improvement that we saw in San Francisco and Seattle coming off of December and into January with the new lease trends going from like a minus 8 in December, down to like the minus 3.5. The portfolio itself was at minus 5.7 for new lease change in December and is now in January that we put in the release at a minus 3.7. The expectations clearly is that you could see with sequential rents improving each week, that number is going to continue to drop as you work your way through the quarter.

約翰，這是麥可。我可以從那裡開始。所以我的意思是，我認為當你看到這一點時，我之前已經引用過，我們在舊金山和西雅圖看到了從 12 月到 1 月的改善，新的租賃趨勢從 12 月的負 8 開始，下降到負3.5。由於 12 月的新租賃變更，投資組合本身的值為 -5.7，現在我們在 1 月發布的報告中的值為 -3.7。顯然，您的預期是，您可以看到隨著租金每週連續上漲，隨著您在整個季度的努力，這個數字將繼續下降。

So on the renewal side, it's a little bit of the opposite story. You saw renewals were a 5.2 in the month of December. And in the release, we have January at the 4.9, the quotes are out there, but we do expect this renewal number to keep trending down as we work our way through, somewhere in that 4% to 4.5% range is what we expect to achieve off the quotes that are in the marketplace. So I think you're going to see the interplay between these two shifted a little bit where you're going to have strength because you're going to have new lease change starting to recover. And hopefully turning positive as we start off the spring leasing season. We'll see if we keep this kind of momentum in place to do that, and you'll see the moderation of renewals, but still at a really strong number if we come in anywhere between that 4% and 4.5% growth.

所以在更新方面，情況有點相反。您看到 12 月的續訂率為 5.2。在發布的版本中，我們將1 月份的價格定為4.9，報價已公佈，但我們確實預計，隨著我們的努力，續訂數量將繼續呈下降趨勢，我們預計在4% 到4.5% 的範圍內實現市場上的報價。所以我認為你會看到這兩者之間的相互作用發生了一些變化，你將擁有力量，因為你將有新的租約變更開始恢復。希望隨著春季租賃季節的開始，情況會變得積極。我們將看看我們是否保持這種勢頭來做到這一點，你會看到續約的溫和性，但如果我們的成長率在 4% 到 4.5% 之間，那麼仍然是一個非常強勁的數字。

Okay. And my second question is on your development yields. Like you said, we're trending closer to 6%, given higher concessions. Can you comment on the level of concessions that you're providing today? And is this really driven by your Texas and Denver developments? Or is this broad-based?

好的。我的第二個問題是關於你們的開發收益。正如您所說，如果給予更大的優惠，我們的趨勢將接近 6%。您能否評論一下您今天提供的讓步程度？這真的是由德州和丹佛市的發展所推動的嗎？還是這是基礎廣泛的？

John, it's Alex. Well, we are literally just starting up our lease-ups right now. So we don't have a lot of data yet. We are assuming a month right now, but that could be flexible over time. And those lease-ups are three in Texas, one in suburban New York, which we'll probably see very little of that kind of concessions and then two in Denver.

約翰，這是亞歷克斯。嗯，我們現在才剛開始租賃業務。所以我們還沒有很多數據。我們現在假設一個月，但隨著時間的推移，這可能會變得靈活。這些租賃項目在德克薩斯州有 3 處，在紐約郊區有 1 處，我們可能會看到很少有此類優惠，然後在丹佛有 2 處。

And our next question is going to come from Adam Kramer from Morgan Stanley.

我們的下一個問題將由摩根士丹利的 Adam Kramer 提出。

Maybe a little bit more of a conceptual question, and I guess, also kind of in line with Alex Goldfarb's question earlier. But just looking at kind of the new lease change by market, comparing that to the renewal change by market. It's kind of interesting, a new lease can vary pretty significantly by some of these markets, but renewals are in a pretty tight band, call it, 200 basis point band, give or take. And so I guess the question is kind of twofold, right? Is there an ability to maybe push renewals even more in, say, a market like D.C. where new leases holding in a lot better versus kind of expansion markets, right, or San Francisco where I guess I'm kind of surprised by that historically why it's wide spread between the new and the renewal rate? And should I be maybe a little bit worried about renewals kind of falling a little bit, getting closer to that kind of deeply negative or somewhat negative new lease change. Again, a little bit more of a conceptual question, so apologies, but hopefully, hopefully, that makes sense.

也許更多的是概念性問題，我想，也有點符合亞歷克斯·戈德法布之前的問題。但只要看看市場上新租約的變化，將其與市場上的續租變化進行比較即可。有趣的是，新租約可能會因其中一些市場的不同而有很大差異，但續租的範圍非常狹窄，可以稱之為 200 個基點範圍，或多或少。所以我想這個問題是雙重的，對吧？是否有能力進一步推動續約，比如說，在像華盛頓這樣的市場，新租約比擴張市場要好得多，或者在舊金山，我想我對歷史上的原因感到有點驚訝新的和續約率之間的差距很大嗎？我是否應該有點擔心續約會有點下降，越來越接近那種嚴重負面或有些負面的新租約變化。再說一遍，這是一個概念性問題，所以很抱歉，但希望這是有道理的。

Adam, it's Michael. So I mean I think there's just more stickiness into the renewal stats that you look at this. And you're also coming off of a period of time which is low transactions. So there is a little bit of that in these numbers. I think as we think about this, I mean, like I said, we have this data going all the way back in time. It's just not uncommon in the fourth quarter to see new lease change goes negative. Even in a pretty good year with rate growth happening in the marketplace, that new lease change goes negative and renewals stay positive. So it is a really uncommon situation for our renewal growth to go flat or even think that it's going to be negative. And like I said, we've just put so much into our processes. We have so much good information and insights to it. We've got a high degree of confidence.

亞當，是麥可。所以我的意思是，我認為續約統計數據更具黏性。而且您還經歷了一段交易量較低的時期。所以這些數字中有一點點。我認為，當我們思考這個問題時，我的意思是，就像我說的，我們擁有這些可以追溯到過去的數據。第四季新租約變動出現負值的情況並不少見。即使在市場利率成長的好年份，新的租約變動也會出現負值，而續約則維持正值。因此，我們的續訂成長持平甚至認為會出現負成長，這是非常罕見的情況。就像我說的，我們在流程中投入了很多。我們有很多很好的資訊和見解。我們有高度的信心。

That being said, if there's a big dislocation in the market, right? Even the deceleration that I mentioned before, could be more robust than what we modeled.

話雖這麼說，如果市場出現很大的混亂，對嗎？即使是我之前提到的減速，也可能比我們建模的更強勁。

Great. That's really helpful. And I appreciate that color and all kind of the building blocks earlier on the call, too.

偉大的。這真的很有幫助。我也很欣賞電話會議早些時候的那種顏色和各種構建模組。

So maybe on concession use. I know you've talked about it a little bit on the call thus far. Maybe just if you don't mind some of your expansion market. Kind of the level of concessions in terms of number of weeks that are being offered?

所以也許是優惠使用。我知道到目前為止您已經在電話中談到了這一點。也許只是如果你不介意你的一些擴張市場的話。就所提供的周數而言，優惠程度如何？

Yes. So I think I would just start by just saying that the concession use right now remains concentrated in the Seattle and San Francisco portfolio for us with about 70% of all the concessions being issued. When you drill into the expansion markets, I mean, it's such a small percent of the absolute portfolio. But right now, when you go across them, it's running between like 30% and 45% of applications receiving about a month. I'd say Dallas right now is the one market where we're up closer to about 6 weeks' worth of concessions being issued. And like I said, we would expect that to kind of continue at that level in those expansion markets and we're watching what's going to be happening with the new lease-ups and how competitive are they so that we know where we need to play. The fact that these markets are now like 96% or even some of them over 96% with that concession use that we did in the fourth quarter is really a good sign because the last thing you want to do is turn on concessions, do leasing and still land in an occupancy like where you started with? That would not be a good situation.

是的。因此，我想我首先要說的是，目前我們的特許權使用仍然集中在西雅圖和舊金山的投資組合中，約佔所有特許權的 70%。當你深入研究擴張市場時，我的意思是，它只佔絕對投資組合的一小部分。但現在，當你查看它們時，你會發現大約 30% 到 45% 的申請都在一個月左右收到。我想說，達拉斯現在是我們即將發放約 6 週優惠的市場。就像我說的，我們預計在這些擴張市場中這種情況會繼續保持在這個水平，我們正在觀察新的租賃會發生什麼以及它們的競爭力如何，以便我們知道我們需要在哪裡發揮作用。事實上，這些市場現在大約 96%，甚至其中一些市場超過 96%，我們在第四季度使用了特許權，這確實是一個好兆頭，因為你最不想做的就是開啟特許權、進行租賃和仍然住在像你開始的地方一樣的地方嗎？那可不是什麼好狀況。

So we feel like the setup right now is defensive. These occupancies are 2% to 3% above. We expect to issue 30% to 40% of our applications receiving concessions of 1 month to 1.5 months in those markets.

所以我們覺得現在的設定是防禦性的。這些入住率都在2%到3%以上。我們預計在這些市場中發放 30% 至 40% 的申請，獲得 1 個月至 1.5 個月的折扣。

Our next question is going to come from Haendel St. Juste.

我們的下一個問題將來自亨德爾·聖賈斯特。

I guess, good morning out there to you guys. Mark, I guess the first question for you, following up on Rich's question earlier about your potential interest in stepping in and participating in other parts of the capital stack. Seems a bit of a departure from how you've responded to mezz investments in the past. So I guess, first, is that fair? And why the change of heart? I'm assuming perhaps is reflective of the opportunities.

我想，大家早安。馬克，我想你的第一個問題是跟進里奇之前提出的問題，即你對介入和參與資本堆疊其他部分的潛在興趣。似乎與您過去對夾層投資的反應有些不同。所以我想，首先，這公平嗎？為什麼要改變主意？我想這或許反映了機會。

But second, I'm assuming -- or is it fair to assume that you'd be solely focused on the Sunbelt?

但其次，我假設──或者假設你只專注在陽光地帶是否公平？

And then third, what level of return or premium acquisition cap rate would you seek there?

第三，您希望在那裡尋求什麼水準的報酬或溢價收購上限率？

Okay. I'm going to start with some of that and then Alex may answer parts of it as well, Haendel. But on the mezz investment side, I think the part that Alex emphasized was the path to ownership. So what we've been more hesitant to participate in is to just create a book where we are consistently making mezzanine loans or preferred equity investments in deals where it's improbable that we would end up being the owner. When we're working with the lender and the owner and we get in the capital structure and there's a good chance we're going to end up with the deal, that to us is very different. That is stuff we did do back in '08 or '09 through 2010. So that is a familiar thing for me and Alex and a lot of folks on the team to do. So that's how I would distinguish the two of those. I don't know if there was anything else in that question you wanted to answer, Alex, no.

好的。我將從其中的一些開始，然後亞歷克斯也可能回答其中的一部分，亨德爾。但在夾層投資方面，我認為Alex強調的部分是所有權之路。因此，我們更猶豫是否參與的是創建一本書，我們一直在我們不太可能成為所有者的交易中持續提供夾層貸款或優先股投資。當我們與貸方和所有者合作並了解資本結構時，我們很有可能最終會達成交易，這對我們來說是非常不同的。這是我們從 08 年或 09 年到 2010 年所做的事情。所以這對我和 Alex 以及團隊中的許多人來說是很熟悉的事情。這就是我區分兩者的方式。我不知道你在這個問題中是否還有其他想要回答的內容，亞歷克斯，沒有。

No, I think we're good. I mean we will be opportunistic. That's the history of our company, and we'll keep looking for chances to buy great real estate.

不，我認為我們很好。我的意思是我們會機會主義。這就是我們公司的歷史，我們將繼續尋找機會購買優質房地產。

I guess I will -- you asked about acquiring assets in one form or another in our established coastal markets. We're certainly open to that. We've got some development deals we're likely to start in some of those established markets that are in areas really hard to build. But the primary focus is to get into these expansion markets and add capital there.

我想我會的——您詢問了在我們成熟的沿海市場以一種或另一種形式收購資產的問題。我們當然對此持開放態度。我們可能會在一些確實難以建立的成熟市場中啟動一些開發交易。但主要重點是進入這些擴張市場並在那裡增加資本。

Got you. Got you. That's helpful. But a follow-up. What level of return potentially would you -- or premium to acquisitions, would you seek were you to get involved in some of these mezz or pact ownership type opportunities.

明白你了。明白你了。這很有幫助。但後續。如果您參與其中一些夾層或協議所有權類型的機會，您會尋求什麼程度的潛在回報或收購溢價。

Haendel, it's Alex. It's really impossible to peg that without knowing the specifics of the deal and the circumstances around it. But obviously, we're very focused on getting compensated for any risk we would take beyond a typical transaction.

亨德爾，是亞歷克斯。如果不了解交易的細節及其周圍的情況，確實不可能確定這一點。但顯然，我們非常注重為我們在典型交易之外承擔的任何風險獲得補償。

Okay. Fair enough. One more on the expense side. I was hoping for a bit more detail on the key components. I appreciate the overall high-level thoughts you provided there earlier, but maybe some specifics on the key components like what you're embedding in your guide for specifically taxes, insurance, R&M and also for the ongoing tech initiatives. I think last year, you outlined $10 million or so of savings via that. Just curious what level perhaps we could see from tech initiative savings this year.

好的。很公平。還有一個是費用方面的。我希望能獲得有關關鍵組件的更多詳細資訊。我很欣賞您之前提供的整體高層次想法，但也許還有一些關鍵組成部分的具體細節，例如您在指南中嵌入的特定稅收、保險、R&M 以及正在進行的技術計劃的內容。我想去年，您透過此計劃節省了 1000 萬美元左右。只是好奇今年我們可以從技術計劃節省的資金中看到什麼水平。

Yes. Haendel, it's Bob. I'll start with some detail on the expenses and then maybe pass it to Michael on the initiatives. I will caveat on the initiative side. Most of our initiatives, as Michael mentioned, are more revenue focused this year than expense focused, but he can touch on initiatives if I don't cover something. So on specifics related to some of the categories we are expecting, as I kind of mentioned, utilities and real estate tax to grow higher than what they did in 2023. That implies or means that at the midpoint, we'd have real estate taxes around, call it, 3% and utilities more around a 6% growth rate relative to what were lower growth rates in '23.

是的。亨德爾，是鮑伯。我將從一些有關費用的細節開始，然後可能會將其傳遞給邁克爾有關計劃的信息。我會在主動方面提出警告。正如邁克爾所提到的，今年我們的大多數舉措更專注於收入而不是支出，但如果我沒有涵蓋某些內容，他可以談論舉措。因此，就與我們預期的某些類別相關的具體細節而言，正如我所提到的，公用事業稅和房地產稅的增長將高於2023 年的水平。這意味著或意味著，在中點，我們將徵收房地產稅相對於 23 年較低的成長率，可以稱之為 3% 左右，公用事業的成長率約為 6%。

On the other side of the equation on the big categories, you have R&M, which experienced a lot of inflationary pressure in 2023. We expect that to normalize. So we expect R&M to grow something more like 4%. That is where we are realizing some of the opportunities and work that we've done on the initiative front to reduce our dependency on contract labor and places where there's wage pressure. So that's helping us get to that 4% anticipated growth. And payroll, we think we're not anticipating as much challenges on the medical benefit side, and we're just yielding some of the payroll optimization we did was back-end loaded in '23. So we'll realize more of that benefit in 2024. Does that help you on the color side? Is there any categories I missed?

在大品類等式的另一邊，有 R&M，它在 2023 年經歷了很大的通膨壓力。我們預期這種情況會正常化。因此，我們預計 R&M 的成長率約為 4%。這就是我們意識到的一些機會和我們在主動方面所做的工作，以減少我們對合約工和存在工資壓力的地方的依賴。因此，這有助於我們實現 4% 的預期成長。至於薪資單，我們認為我們預計醫療福利方面不會有那麼多挑戰，而且我們只是在 23 年後端加載了一些薪資優化。因此，我們將在 2024 年實現更多這一優勢。這對您在色彩方面有幫助嗎？有沒有我錯過的類別？

No, that's helpful. But in relation to -- I believe it was $10 million that you outlined last year from tech-driven efficiencies first, is that accurate? And second, do you have a comparable figure expectation for this year?

不，這很有幫助。但關於——我相信您去年概述的技術驅動效率首先是 1000 萬美元，這準確嗎？其次，您對今年的數字有可比較的預期嗎？

Yes. Hi, Haendel, it's Michael. So let me just start by saying that really, the entire company has been focused around these innovation initiatives for the last several years. And we now have created this foundation that really is going to deliver long-term value creation to the portfolio for many years to come. With the materials that we put in that November investor presentation highlights this technology evolution of this platform really has been focused on creating the mobility and efficiency in the operating model while this seamless experience to our customer improves.

是的。嗨，亨德爾，我是麥可。首先我要說的是，整個公司在過去幾年一直專注於這些創新措施。我們現在已經創建了這個基礎，它將真正為未來許多年的投資組合帶來長期價值創造。根據我們在 11 月投資者演示中提供的材料，強調了該平台的技術演進確實專注於在營運模式中創造移動性和效率，同時改善客戶的無縫體驗。

All in, we've identified about $60 million in NOI improvements with about $35 million of that already achieved over the past several years. The early stages of this was clearly more expense focused, and that shows up in our numbers when you look at the low expense growth. And that's mostly in the payroll and some of the R&M accounts over the last couple of years.

總而言之，我們已經確定了約 6000 萬美元的 NOI 改進，其中約 3500 萬美元是在過去幾年中已經實現的。早期階段顯然更注重費用，當你看到較低的費用成長時，這一點就體現在我們的數據中。這主要是在過去幾年的薪資單和一些 R&M 帳戶。

Going forward, we've identified and we expect about another $25 million. In 2023, we delivered about $10 million in NOI improvement, and about 2/3 of that was on the expense categories, primarily in the payroll accounts and a couple of million dollars of that was in the revenue front.

展望未來，我們已經確定並預計另外約 2500 萬美元。 2023 年，我們實現了約 1000 萬美元的 NOI 改善，其中約 2/3 用於支出類別，主要用於工資帳戶，其中幾百萬美元用於收入方面。

Specific to 2024, we've layered in another $10 million included in guidance with about $7.5 million in other income accounts. And this is realized growth as the annualized number from all of these initiatives is greater because some of these are back half loaded, meaning I only get about half of the benefit this year.

具體到 2024 年，我們在指導中另外投入了 1,000 萬美元，在其他收入帳戶中投入了約 750 萬美元。這是實現的成長，因為所有這些舉措的年化數字更大，因為其中一些是後半負荷的，這意味著我今年只獲得了大約一半的收益。

So overall, I guess I would just say is this operating foundation is almost in place. and you really should expect that the future years are going to continue to have more revenue enhancement opportunities. But the reality is, I mean, we're never really done with this pursuit of operational excellence. It's something that's wired into the DNA of our company. And I'm sure as this year goes on, we're going to identify new things for future years as well.

總的來說，我想我只想說這個營運基礎已經差不多就位了。您確實應該期望未來幾年將繼續有更多的收入增加機會。但現實是，我的意思是，我們對卓越營運的追求從未真正結束。這是融入我們公司 DNA 的東西。我確信隨著今年的繼續，我們也將為未來幾年確定新事物。

Our next question is going to come from Rob Stevenson from Janney.

我們的下一個問題將來自珍尼的羅布史蒂文森。

Alex, can you talk about how robust the market is for dispositions in quality of life areas like Urban Seattle, San Francisco or markets with ongoing bad debt issues like LA are things trading and where are they pricing versus a few years ago if they are?

亞歷克斯，你能談談西雅圖、舊金山等生活品質地區的市場配置有多強勁，或者洛杉磯等持續出現壞賬問題的市場的交易情況嗎？如果是的話，與幾年前相比，它們的定價如何？

Yes. Thanks, Rob, it's Alex. There's almost no activity in the markets you listed. I mean, we test from time to time, not saying we wouldn't sell something, but right now, I don't -- I couldn't tell you what market cap rates are because they just haven't been freed. So it is really frozen there. So frankly, we've concentrated our efforts elsewhere.

是的。謝謝，羅布，我是亞歷克斯。您列出的市場幾乎沒有任何活動。我的意思是，我們時不時地進行測試，並不是說我們不會出售某些東西，但現在，我不能告訴你市值是多少，因為它們還沒有被釋放。所以那裡真的被凍住了。坦白說，我們把精力集中在其他地方。

And I mean is that just hold on for a couple of years, hope that the cities get their act together? Or is there something else just simply by lower priced capital that will allow that to sort of come back? Or are there -- you're anticipating some sort of level of permanent impairment on some of those markets and submarkets.

我的意思是，只要撐幾年，希望各城市齊心協力？或者是否有其他方法只需透過較低價格的資本就可以讓這種情況回歸？或者，您預計其中一些市場和子市場會出現某種程度的永久性損害。

No. I think all of the things that you mentioned are likely to happen. There's a tremendous amount of capital on the sidelines. These cities are still great cities. The cities themselves are doing a lot. Particularly in San Francisco and Seattle to improve the quality of life. I mean they're making some really serious headways. And as Mark talked about, we expect them to recover as the jobs recover, but even absent that, we're at 96% occupancy. It's just investor sentiment is really negative right now, and we think that there are better opportunities elsewhere, and we're frankly a buyer of what it sounds like people would transact right now.

不，我認為你提到的所有事情都有可能發生。有大量資本在觀望。這些城市仍然是偉大的城市。城市本身正在做很多事情。特別是在舊金山和西雅圖提高生活品質。我的意思是他們正在取得一些非常重大的進展。正如馬克所說，我們預計它們會隨著就業機會的恢復而恢復，但即使沒有就業機會，我們的入住率也達到 96%。只是目前投資人情緒確實很負面，我們認為其他地方有更好的機會，坦白說，我們是人們現在會進行交易的買家。

And Rob, just to add to that, I mean, these markets, Seattle and San Francisco, particularly though, you could think about downtown L.A. too. We may have powerful drivers. For us, it's like we talked about New York, when everyone was down on New York City, and we were positive on it still. That recovery has been vibrant. I think it's the same pattern here. It's not a matter of if, it's a matter of when. And I think these markets will recover greatly on the rental side over the next few years.

羅布，補充一點，我的意思是，這些市場，西雅圖和舊金山，特別是，你也可以考慮洛杉磯市中心。我們可能擁有強大的驅動力。對我們來說，這就像我們談論紐約一樣，當每個人都對紐約市感到失望時，我們仍然對它持積極態度。這種復甦充滿活力。我認為這裡也是同樣的模式。這不是是否的問題，而是何時的問題。我認為未來幾年這些市場的租賃方面將大幅復甦。

What we shied away from on this call is excessive enthusiasm too early in the year when you're not really into the leasing season yet in markets that do have volatility associated with them. So I don't feel any sense of permanent impairment in these markets at all. I think that you're going to have great rental growth, you're going to have a recovery that's pretty strong in these markets. And you are likely but not certain to follow a pattern like in New York, where, again, the investment sales market has some deals in it in New York, and they're trading really well. And so I'm not sure why in a few years San Francisco and Seattle wouldn't trade very well as well. But it's just going to take some time.

我們在這次電話會議上避免的是今年過早的過度熱情，當時你還沒有真正進入租賃季節，而且市場確實存在波動。所以我根本不覺得這些市場有任何永久性的損害。我認為租金將會大幅成長，這些市場也會出現強勁的復甦。你可能但不確定會遵循紐約那樣的模式，同樣，投資銷售市場在紐約有一些交易，而且交易非常好。因此，我不確定為什麼幾年後舊金山和西雅圖的貿易情況也不會那麼好。但這需要一些時間。

And again, our hesitancy here is really around the time line for this, not the occurrence of it. And I think it's a catalyst for our investors. I think having a portion of the portfolio in unrecovered markets with rents lower than they were in '19 and income is a lot higher is a huge potential piece of kindling wood to our earnings in future years.

再說一遍，我們在這裡的猶豫實際上是圍繞著這件事的時間線，而不是它的發生。我認為這對我們的投資者來說是一個催化劑。我認為，在未復甦的市場中擁有一部分投資組合，租金比 19 年低，收入卻高得多，這對我們未來幾年的收入來說是一個巨大的潛在引燃源。

Okay. That's helpful. And then lastly for me, Bob, what's the $0.06 difference between day REIT normalized FFO guidance? Is that one or two large items that you're expecting or a bunch of small ones given what you know today?

好的。這很有幫助。最後，鮑勃，日間 REIT 標準化 FFO 指導之間的 0.06 美元差異是多少？這是您所期待的一兩個大項目還是根據您今天所了解的一堆小項目？

Yes. There's one larger contributor, which I'll talk about, which is advocacy costs. So we are forecasting higher levels of advocacy costs in 2024, given that it's an election year and some of the balance sheet -- ballot initiatives, sorry, that we are facing, which is not atypical as another election years. And then the remaining pieces are typical forecast for pursuit costs and other items.

是的。我將討論一個更大的貢獻者，那就是宣傳成本。因此，我們預測 2024 年的宣傳成本會更高，因為這是一個選舉年，而且我們面臨一些資產負債表——抱歉，投票倡議，這與另一個選舉年一樣並不罕見。然後剩下的部分是對追擊成本和其他項目的典型預測。

Is that advocacy in California? Or is there other markets as well? Or is that entire spend out there?

這是加州的倡議嗎？或是有其他市場嗎？還是全部支出都在那裡？

It's predominantly California.

主要是加州。

Okay. And is there anything, I guess, related to that, that you're especially worried about this cycle? I mean, I know that a lot of this stuff keeps being put on every other ballot or every ballot. But I mean, is there anything that's looking like this year or '24 is the chance that it really passes, it would wind up being a negative for you guys?

好的。我想，有什麼與此相關的事情讓您特別擔心這個週期嗎？我的意思是，我知道很多這樣的東西不斷被加到其他選票或每張選票上。但我的意思是，今年或 24 年是否有什麼事情真的過去了，最終會對你們產生負面影響？

Rob, it's Mark. I mean, there's negatives and there's positives in the regulatory area. The ballot measure is by far the biggest point of focus in the industry. And just to remind everyone, this has been on the ballot twice before, the citizens of California rejected it by 20 percentage points each time. The industry is well organized. We're going to make the same good arguments about supply being the solution, more rental voucher funding being the solution. And to be honest, the Governor Newsom and the legislature have done a lot of supply things with the accessory dwelling unit legislation, with some of the zoning reforms. And so to be honest, when I turn to the positive on the regulatory side, people hear us. They hear the industry's point about supply, about zoning reform, Governor DeSantis obviously couldn't be more different than Governor Newsom. He has done some great things in Florida as it relates to housing policy as well and zoning reform to allow more affordable housing to be built. Governor Hochul in New York was trying the same thing and got a lot of resistance, but we hope that is still in place.

羅布，我是馬克。我的意思是，監管領域有正面的一面，也有負面的一面。投票措施是迄今為止業界最大的焦點。提醒大家一下，先前該提案已進行過兩次投票，加州公民每次都以 20 個百分點的票數否決了該提案。該行業組織良好。我們將提出同樣好的論據，即供應是解決方案，更多的租賃憑證資金是解決方案。老實說，紐瑟姆州長和立法機關已經在附屬住宅單元立法和一些分區改革方面做了很多供應工作。老實說，當我轉向監管方面的正面方面時，人們聽到了我們的聲音。他們聽到了業界關於供應、分區改革的觀點，德桑蒂斯州長顯然與紐瑟姆州長截然不同。他在佛羅裡達州做了一些很棒的事情，因為這也涉及住房政策和分區改革，以允許建造更多經濟適用房。紐約州州長 Hochul 也在嘗試同樣的事情，但遭到了許多阻力，但我們希望這種情況仍然存在。

So California is, to answer your question, the focal point of us and the industry at large this year. But markets like New York and Massachusetts and Colorado, there's always dialogue going on in those markets. but we're well organized to have that conversation. And I think policymakers by and large understand that supply is the answer, not rental regulation. That's what I think is the positive here. You hear about that a lot more in our conversations and the reaction to rent control is something that we talk through and you get a lot of people calling the other direction after they've heard the arguments.

因此，回答你的問題，加州是我們和整個行業今年的焦點。但在紐約、麻薩諸塞州和科羅拉多州等市場，這些市場總是在進行對話。但我們組織得很好，可以進行這樣的對話。我認為政策制定者總體上明白供應才是答案，而不是租金管制。我認為這就是正面的一面。在我們的談話中你會聽到更多這樣的事情，對租金管制的反應也是我們討論的話題，很多人在聽到這些爭論後會提出相反的意見。

Our next question comes from Anthony Powell.

我們的下一個問題來自安東尼·鮑威爾。

A question on new and renewal lease spreads and the leases. I'm curious what's the absolute, I guess, rent, these two customer groups are paying in terms of both gross and net effective? I'm trying to understand better about what the actual numbers are for these two customer groups.

關於新租約和續約租約以及租約的問題。我很好奇這兩個客戶群支付的總租金和淨租金的絕對租金是多少？我試著更了解這兩個客戶群的實際數字。

Anthony, this is Michael. Can you ask that again? I'm not sure I'm following. The absolute rent part of the equation.

安東尼，這是麥可。你能再問一次嗎？我不確定我是否在關注。等式的絕對租金部分。

So in terms of this new and renewal leases on absolute rent. Is there a big difference between the two? Are customers paying lower or higher on renewing or new leases? I'm trying to get a sense of the absolute pricing difference between the two groups of customers.

因此，就絕對租金而言，新租約和續約租約。兩者有很大差別嗎？客戶在續約或新租約時支付的費用是更低還是更高？我試著去了解兩組客戶之間的絕對價格差異。

Yes. I think when you look at it on the new lease side, because of the concessions that we're offering in some of them, I think it lowers like the net effective rate when you look at the absolute average of all the leases that we wrote versus the renewals.

是的。我認為，當你從新的租賃方面來看時，由於我們在其中一些方面提供了優惠，我認為當你查看我們所寫的所有租賃的絕對平均值時，它會像淨有效利率一樣降低與續訂相比。

And one thing to keep in mind too, Anthony, is when you're looking at the spread, so if you're starting with market rate rents, right, and looking at market and that's kind of your pricing trend or whatever, spreads can vary materially depending on who is in the mix of moving in and moving out. So if I have lived in a unit for 1 year and got a big concession as Michael used an example in an expansion market. And I happen to be the one renewing, then that spread can be very different than the absolute. So just keep that in mind as you look at any of these spreads. And then particularly, keep it in mind as you think about seasonal periods like the first quarter and the fourth quarter, where transaction activity is really low, you can have even more volatility in the number.

安東尼，還需要記住的一件事是，當您查看價差時，因此，如果您從市場利率租金開始，對吧，然後查看市場，這就是您的定價趨勢或其他什麼，價差可以具體取決於誰入住和搬出。因此，如果我在一個單元裡住了一年並獲得了很大的讓步，就像邁克爾在擴張市場中舉的例子一樣。而我恰好是更新的人，那麼這種傳播可能與絕對的有很大不同。因此，當您查看這些價差時，請記住這一點。特別是，當您考慮第一季和第四季度等季節性時期時，請特別記住這一點，這些時期的交易活動非常低，數字的波動性可能更大。

Thank you. And maybe one more on transaction activity. Do you expect to see any portfolio deals later this year? Or do you expect your deal activity to be more single asset as it had been recently.

謝謝。也許還有一個關於交易活動的問題。您預計今年稍後會看到任何投資組合交易嗎？或者您是否預期您的交易活動會像最近一樣更加單一資產。

Anthony, it's Alex. I don't know if I expect to. I certainly hope to, and I think we probably will, but it remains to be seen. But there are some things out there that we've heard about that might be interesting, and we'll certainly be very actively pursuing them.

安東尼，是亞歷克斯。我不知道我是否期待。我當然希望，而且我想我們可能會，但這還有待觀察。但我們聽說過一些可能很有趣的事情，我們肯定會非常積極地追求它們。

Our next question is going to come from Linda Tsai from Jefferies.

我們的下一個問題將來自 Jefferies 的 Linda Tsai。

Just one question. In your prepared comments, you highlighted seeing stability in pullback in Seattle and San Francisco. Could you discuss that dynamic more? Is this volatility associated with job loss and return to work mandates? Or maybe just provide some examples of what drives this push and pull.

只有一個問題。在您準備好的評論中，您強調了西雅圖和舊金山回檔的穩定性。您能多討論一下這個動態嗎？這種波動是否與失業和重返工作崗位的要求有關？或者也許只是提供一些驅動這種推拉的例子。

Yes. Linda, this is Michael. So I think clearly, job growth is one of the catalysts that does that. The migration patterns also influence that. So where you see a lot more of your move-ins coming to from within the MSA that's usually deal seekers. Those are people that are responding to seeing the concessions and either breaking their lease where they were to move into it. So it's just -- you just haven't seen like the sustained momentum that you would expect based on seasonal trends. I think last year, you saw some of those layoff announcements, you saw a lot of ambiguity around return to office where people were just waiting to see what their employer was going to do before they decided to make any kind of relocation decisions to get nearer into where their offices were.

是的。琳達，這是麥可。所以我清楚地認為，就業成長是實現這一目標的催化劑之一。移民模式也會影響這一點。因此，您會看到更多來自 MSA 內部的遷入者，通常是尋求交易的人。這些人看到這些讓步後就會做出反應，要嘛終止他們要搬進去的租約。所以這只是——你只是沒有看到基於季節性趨勢所期望的持續勢頭。我想去年，你看到了一些裁員公告，你看到了很多關於重返辦公室的模糊性，人們只是在等待看看他們的雇主會做什麼，然後才決定做出任何形式的搬遷決定以接近辦公室進入他們的辦公室所在的地方。

I still think some of that exists in the marketplace today. But what we did see and what we see right now is that the setup in both of those markets has positioned us with good occupancy. We are starting to pull back concessions, the marketplace still have concessions in them and we'll just watch and see that build as we get in towards March and April to see what pricing power really looks like. But there's a lot of factors that are going into why a market all of the sudden kind of stalls out and whether or not it shows you sustained momentum more in line with seasonal trends.

我仍然認為其中一些仍然存在於今天的市場上。但我們確實和現在看到的是，這兩個市場的設定為我們提供了良好的入住率。我們開始收回優惠，市場仍然有優惠，我們將在進入三月和四月時觀察這種優惠的情況，看看定價能力到底是什麼樣的。但有許多因素可以解釋為什麼市場突然陷入停滯，以及它是否顯示出與季節性趨勢更相符的持續動力。

I have no further questions left in the queue. I'll turn it back over to Mark Parrell for closing comments.

我沒有其他問題了。我會將其轉回給馬克·帕雷爾 (Mark Parrell) 以供結束評論。

Thank you all for hanging in there on this long call. We appreciate your interest and your time today. Good day.

感謝大家堅持參加這通漫長的通話。我們感謝您今天的興趣和時間。再會。

And this concludes today's call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.

今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連線。