住宅地產 (EQR) 2023 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Good day, and welcome to the EQR 2Q '23 Earnings Conference Call and Webcast. Today's conference is being recorded. At this time, I would like to turn the conference over to Martin McKenna.

美好的一天，歡迎參加 EQR 2Q '23 收益電話會議和網絡廣播。今天的會議正在錄製中。這次，我想把會議交給馬丁·麥肯納。

Good morning, and thanks for joining us to discuss Equity Residential's Second Quarter 2023 results. Our featured speakers today are Mark Parrell, our President and CEO; Michael Manelis, our Chief Operating Officer; and Bob Garechana, our Chief Financial Officer. Alex Brackenridge, our Chief Investment Officer, is here with us as well for the Q&A.

早上好，感謝您與我們一起討論 Equity Residential 2023 年第二季度的業績。今天我們的演講嘉賓是我們的總裁兼首席執行官馬克·帕雷爾 (Mark Parrell)； Michael Manelis，我們的首席運營官；和我們的首席財務官 Bob Garechana。我們的首席投資官 Alex Brackenridge 也與我們一起參加問答。

Our earnings release is posted in the Investors section of equityapartments.com. Please be advised that certain matters discussed during this conference call may constitute forward-looking statements within the meaning of the federal securities laws. These forward-looking statements are subject to certain economic risks and uncertainties. The company assumes no obligation to update or supplement these statements that become untrue because of subsequent events.

我們的收益發布發佈在equityapartments.com 的投資者部分。請注意，本次電話會議中討論的某些事項可能構成聯邦證券法含義內的前瞻性陳述。這些前瞻性陳述受到某些經濟風險和不確定性的影響。公司不承擔更新或補充因後續事件而變得不真實的這些陳述的義務。

Now I will turn the call over to Mark Parrell.

現在我將把電話轉給馬克·帕雷爾。

Thank you, Marty. Good morning, and thank you all for joining us today to discuss our second quarter 2023 results. As we work our way through the leasing season, the business is performing well, with same-store expenses now looking a little bit better than we thought, leading us to lower our guidance for that item last night.

謝謝你，馬蒂。早上好，感謝大家今天加入我們討論我們 2023 年第二季度的業績。當我們努力度過租賃季節時，業務表現良好，同店支出現在看起來比我們想像的要好一些，導致我們昨晚降低了對該項目的指導。

As a result of this and lower expected interest expense, we are pleased to again raise our same-store net operating income and normalized funds from operations guidance after raising same-store NOI and NFFO guidance, just 2 months ago based on better expected revenue results.

由於這一點和較低的預期利息支出，我們很高興在兩個月前基於更好的預期收入結果提高同店 NOI 和 NFFO 指導後，再次提高同店淨營業收入和運營指導的正常化資金。

In a moment, Michael Manelis will give you color on revenue drivers across our markets. After Michael's remarks, Bob will address the details of the improvement in our expense and NFFO guidance, as well as our successful pending refinancing activity.

稍後，邁克爾·馬內利斯 (Michael Manelis) 將為您介紹我們整個市場的收入驅動因素。在邁克爾發表講話後，鮑勃將詳細介紹我們的費用和 NFFO 指導的改進，以及我們成功的待決再融資活動。

The overall theme here is that Equity Residential continues to benefit, like most of the multifamily industry from solid demand, but with the more unique benefit of our mostly coastal portfolio being less exposed to the significant levels of supply just beginning to be delivered in the Sunbelt markets. We also continue to manage expenses well in an inflationary environment, which we expect will allow us to drive more dollars to the bottom line than our competitors over time.

這裡的總體主題是，股權住宅繼續受益，就像大多數多戶住宅行業一樣，受益於穩定的需求，但我們的主要沿海投資組合的更獨特的好處是，較少受到陽光地帶剛剛開始交付的大量供應的影響市場。我們還繼續在通脹環境下妥善管理開支，預計隨著時間的推移，這將使我們比競爭對手獲得更多的利潤。

In terms of specifics, in the quarter we continued to post strong same-store revenue results driven by good demand across our markets and rapidly improving delinquency in Southern California. As you may recall, we increased the midpoint of our same-store revenue guidance for the year to 5.875% in May, right before the NAREIT conference to reflect these factors. That, in turn, caused an improvement of 100 basis points in our same-store NOI guidance midpoint and a $0.03 per share improvement in NFFO guidance at the midpoint.

具體而言，在整個市場的良好需求和南加州拖欠率迅速改善的推動下，本季度我們繼續公佈強勁的同店收入業績。您可能還記得，我們​​在 5 月份（即 NAREIT 會議召開之前）將全年同店收入指導中值上調至 5.875%，以反映這些因素。這反過來導致我們的同店 NOI 指導中點提高了 100 個基點，並且 NFFO 指導中點每股提高了 0.03 美元。

These continued strong operating results speak to the durable nature of our business in the face of some pretty volatile economic conditions. Despite the layoff headlines, particularly in the tech sector that dominated the news in late 2022 and early 2023, we see substantial demand from our affluent renter demographic. Also in places like Seattle, we are hopeful that the return to office mandates by employers like Amazon will drive incremental demand back into the urban areas of the city as commute times become intolerable for workers who dispersed far outside the city in response to COVID and are now required to be in the office frequently and as quality of life issues in these urban areas improve.

這些持續強勁的經營業績說明了我們的業務在面對一些相當不穩定的經濟狀況時的持久性。儘管出現了裁員頭條新聞，尤其是在 2022 年底和 2023 年初佔據新聞頭條的科技行業，但我們仍看到富裕租戶群體的巨大需求。同樣在西雅圖等地，我們希望亞馬遜等雇主的重返辦公室規定將推動增量需求返回城市地區，因為通勤時間對於因應對新冠病毒而分散在城市以外的地方的工人來說變得難以忍受。隨著這些城市地區生活質量問題的改善，現在需要經常去辦公室。

And while new supply is certainly pressuring the Sunbelt and Denver markets, as I mentioned before, we are seeing moderate levels of supply in most of our major markets. Even in Washington, D.C., where we are seeing the highest levels of competitive new supply is being absorbed at a good rate, and the market is performing well.

正如我之前提到的，雖然新的供應肯定會給陽光地帶和丹佛市場帶來壓力，但我們看到大多數主要市場的供應水平適中。即使在華盛頓特區，我們也看到最高水平的競爭性新供應正在以良好的速度被吸收，並且市場表現良好。

Switching over to the transactions market. That market continues to be relatively quiet. We did not sell anything in the second quarter. But we did buy a couple of deals, including a newly developed property in lease-up in Atlanta, that I spoke about on our first quarter call. The other acquisition in the second quarter is a 287-unit property located in suburban Denver, which we purchased for approximately $108 million at an acquisition cap rate of 5%.

切換到交易市場。該市場仍然相對平靜。第二季度我們沒有出售任何東西。但我們確實購買了幾筆交易，包括我在第一季度電話會議上談到的亞特蘭大新開發的租賃房產。第二季度的另一筆收購是位於丹佛郊區的一處擁有 287 個單位的房產，我們以約 1.08 億美元的價格購買了該房產，收購上限率為 5%。

The transaction market generally remains stuck between buyers who expect lower prices given the huge shift in interest rates and a less accommodative capital markets and sellers who remain wedded to early 2022 values and by and large, have assets that are still operating pretty well, so they feel no great compulsion to sell right now.

由於利率的巨大變化和資本市場的寬鬆，交易市場總體上仍然陷入買家和賣家之間的困境，買家預計價格會更低，而賣家仍然堅持 2022 年初的價格，總的來說，他們擁有的資產仍然運營良好，因此他們現在沒有強烈的出售衝動。

Our sense is that sales will pick up over the next 6 to 12 months as sellers accept the reality of rates being higher for longer as floating rate loans with expiring caps reset, and as developer capital invested in newly completed development deals becomes impatient.

我們的感覺是，未來 6 至 12 個月的銷量將會回升，因為賣家接受了利率長期走高的現實，到期上限的浮動利率貸款被重置，而且開發商投資於新完成的開發交易的資本變得不耐煩。

Now a quick note on our capital allocation strategy. As we have discussed with you for the past few years, we continue to have a goal of having a more balanced portfolio between urban and suburban and between coastal and Sunbelt markets. We think such a portfolio will create the highest returns and lowest volatility over time. The recent issues caused by COVID in urban centers and the current issues in the Sunbelt markets due to supply are examples of the opportunities and risks we wish to balance.

現在快速說明一下我們的資本配置策略。正如我們過去幾年與您討論的那樣，我們的目標仍然是在城市和郊區以及沿海和陽光地帶市場之間建立更加平衡的投資組合。我們認為這樣的投資組合將隨著時間的推移創造最高的回報和最低的波動性。最近新冠疫情在城市中心造成的問題以及陽光地帶市場當前因供應而出現的問題就是我們希望平衡的機遇和風險的例子。

As opportunities present themselves in the Sunbelt and Denver markets and in select suburban locations of our coastal markets to acquire or develop great assets at fair prices, we will be there to do so. And before I turn it over to Michael, I want to take a moment to celebrate our 30 years as a public company.

隨著陽光地帶和丹佛市場以及我們沿海市場的選定郊區出現以公平價格收購或開發優質資產的機會，我們將在那裡這樣做。在將其交給 Michael 之前，我想花點時間慶祝我們作為上市公司成立 30 週年。

On August 12, 1993, Equity Residential went public on the New York Stock Exchange. Much has happened in the past 30 years. We grew from about 21,000 units, an initial valuation of $800 million in 1993 to more than 225,000 units across more than 50 markets at the peak, leading to our 80,000 units and a value of more than $26 billion today. On this journey, we acquired a number of other public apartment REITs as well as some very large private portfolios, including Archstone.

1993年8月12日，Equity Residential在紐約證券交易所上市。過去30年發生了很多事情。我們的數量從 1993 年的約 21,000 套（初始估值為 8 億美元）增長到巔峰時期在 50 多個市場的 225,000 多套，最終發展到今天的 80,000 套，價值超過 260 億美元。在此過程中，我們收購了許多其他公共公寓房地產投資信託基金以及一些非常大的私人投資組合，包括 Archstone。

At the head of this enterprise for all those years was our amazing founder and Chairman, Sam Zell, who we lost in May. Sam's guidance and influence are part of our DNA at Equity Residential, and we will continue to run this company to honor his legacy of delivering superior, long-term value to our shareholders.

這些年來，我們出色的創始人兼董事長薩姆·澤爾 (Sam Zell) 一直領導著這家企業，但我們於 5 月份失去了他。 Sam 的指導和影響力是我們 Equity Residential DNA 的一部分，我們將繼續經營這家公司，以紀念他為股東提供卓越、長期價值的傳統。

We thank all of you for your support over the past 30 years and for your kind words regarding Sam's passing.

我們感謝大家過去 30 年來的支持以及對 Sam 去世的善意之言。

And with that, I'll turn the call over to Michael.

然後，我會將電話轉給邁克爾。

Thanks, Mark, and thanks to everyone for joining us today. This morning, I will review the second quarter 2023 operating performance in our markets. We continue to produce very solid results with same-store revenue growth of 5.5% in the second quarter that are in line with our improved May guidance expectations.

謝謝馬克，也感謝大家今天加入我們。今天早上，我將回顧我們市場 2023 年第二季度的運營業績。我們繼續取得非常穩健的業績，第二季度同店收入增長 5.5%，這符合我們改進的 5 月份指導預期。

Results are driven by a continuing improvement in delinquency along with a continued healthy fundamentals in the business. As with last quarter, East Coast markets continue to outperform West Coast. Our results to date reflect our view that we have previously shared with you that pricing trends will follow a normal, albeit slightly muted seasonal trajectory. Generally, layoff announcements seem to have dissipated and our average resident remains in great financial shape with rent-to-income ratios during the quarter for new residents continuing to hover around 20%.

拖欠率的持續改善以及業務基本面的持續健康推動了業績的增長。與上季度一樣，東海岸市場的表現繼續優於西海岸。我們迄今為止的結果反映了我們的觀點，即我們之前曾與您分享過，定價趨勢將遵循正常但略有減弱的季節性軌跡。總體而言，裁員公告似乎已經消散，我們的普通居民財務狀況仍然良好，本季度新居民的租金收入比繼續徘徊在 20% 左右。

Resident lease breaks and transfer activities to reduce rent, often early indicators of resident economic stress remain below pre-pandemic levels and in line with seasonal expectations. The overall employment picture continues to be healthy. and young adults are choosing the attractive lifestyles available in our markets. Single-family home purchases continue to be an expensive proposition. In fact, less than 8% of our residents gave buy home as the reason for their move out in the second quarter, which is well below the 12% norm for this period.

居民租賃中斷和轉讓活動以降低租金，通常是居民經濟壓力的早期指標，仍低於大流行前的水平，並符合季節性預期。整體就業形勢繼續健康。年輕人正在選擇我們市場上有吸引力的生活方式。購買單戶住宅仍然是一個昂貴的提議。事實上，不到 8% 的居民將買房作為第二季度搬出的原因，遠低於這一時期 12% 的正常水平。

Combine this with the overall favorable competitive new supply position we face in most of our markets, and we are on track for a good year in 2023. As a reminder, a combination of more difficult same-store revenue comparison periods, including the absence of governmental rental relief this year and a reversion to a more normal rent growth pattern will result in more moderate, but still above historical growth in the second half of 2023.

將此與我們在大多數市場中面臨的整體有利的競爭性新供應地位相結合，我們有望在 2023 年迎來美好的一年。提醒一下，更困難的同店收入比較期的組合，包括缺乏今年政府租金減免以及恢復到更正常的租金增長模式將導致 2023 年下半年租金增長更加溫和，但仍高於歷史增長水平。

As we sit here today in the back half of our primary leasing season, the portfolio is 96% occupied with good demand and resident retention. We expect a continued healthy trajectory for the remainder of the leasing season. Our portfolio-wide occupancy is being depressed by turnover in Southern California, primarily L.A. as we work our way through the delinquency issues. In the longer run, replacing these vacant units with paying residents outweighs the slightly lower short-term occupancy.

今天，我們正處於主要租賃季的後半段，該投資組合的利用率為 96%，需求良好，住戶保留率良好。我們預計租賃季剩餘時間將持續健康發展。當我們努力解決拖欠問題時，我們整個投資組合的入住率因南加州（主要是洛杉磯）的營業額而受到抑制。從長遠來看，用付費居民取代這些空置單位比短期入住率略有下降更重要。

Now let me spend a few minutes talking about market performance. So let's start with the East Coast. New York was by far the top performer for the second quarter with same-store residential revenue growth of more than 13%. We have very little competitive new supply in the market, and our occupancy sits near 97%. Demand indicators continue to be positive, making this market the expected top performer for the year.

現在讓我花幾分鐘談談市場表現。那麼讓我們從東海岸開始吧。紐約是第二季度迄今為止表現最好的城市，同店住宅收入增長超過 13%。我們市場上幾乎沒有有競爭力的新供應，但我們的入住率接近 97%。需求指標繼續樂觀，使該市場成為今年預期表現最好的市場。

Boston produced slightly above 8% same-store revenue growth in the second quarter driven by strong demand across the submarkets with our urban properties outperforming our suburban ones. We continue to hear stories of tough commute times for suburbanites, that are resulting in residents coming back to the city. While new supply in the market is above the 5-year average, the large majority of it is not competitive with our assets and appears to be readily absorbed.

在子市場強勁需求的推動下，波士頓第二季度同店收入增長略高於 8%，我們的城市物業表現優於郊區物業。我們不斷聽到郊區居民通勤困難的故事，這導致居民返回城市。雖然市場上的新增供應高於五年平均水平，但其中絕大多數與我們的資產不具有競爭力，並且似乎很容易被吸收。

Heading down to D.C. This market continues to impress with same-store revenue growth of 6.3% in the second quarter despite a high level of new supply across a number of submarkets. The market just keeps going, absorbing these units at a healthy pace and delivering some of the best revenue growth in the portfolio.

前往華盛頓特區，儘管多個子市場的新增供應水平很高，但該市場第二季度同店收入增長 6.3%，繼續給人留下深刻印象。市場繼續發展，以健康的速度吸收這些單位，並在投資組合中帶來一些最好的收入增長。

As an example, Reverb, our new 312-unit development in Central D.C. which is currently in lease-up is delivering weekly application volumes well above expectations, allowing us to reduce concessions and push rate. Occupancy in the D.C. market is just below 97% and we are optimistic for continued strong performance for the year, but recognize the increased volume of new supply that will be delivered in the rest of this year.

例如，Reverb 是我們位於華盛頓特區的新開發項目，共有 312 個單元，目前正在出租，每週的申請量遠高於預期，使我們能夠減少優惠和推進率。華盛頓市場的入住率略低於 97%，我們對今年持續強勁的表現持樂觀態度，但也認識到今年剩餘時間交付的新供應量將會增加。

Now for the West Coast. Our Southern California markets achieved some of the strongest sequential revenue growth in the quarter, demonstrating the early financial benefits of backfilling long-term delinquent units with paying residents. Unlike the Orange County and San Diego markets, which posted good quarter-over-quarter revenue growth, Los Angeles produced slightly negative quarter-over-quarter revenue growth. This reported number, however, is not indicative of the health of the market but more noise from bad debt due to large rental relief receipts in the second quarter of 2022.

現在到西海岸。我們的南加州市場在本季度實現了最強勁的連續收入增長，這證明了用付費居民回填長期拖欠單位的早期財務效益。與奧蘭治縣和聖地亞哥市場的季度環比收入增長良好不同，洛杉磯的環比收入增長略有負增長。然而，這一報告數字並不代表市場的健康狀況，而是由於 2022 年第二季度收到大量租金減免收入而導致壞賬產生更多噪音。

When you strip this noise out, same-store quarter-over-quarter revenue growth would have been over 5% positive for L.A. We are still seeing healthy demand in Los Angeles and have not felt any negative impact from the workers' strikes in the entertainment industry. Our direct exposure is not significant but acknowledge it may soften overall market conditions in the coming months, which could slow our ability to release some of our vacant units.

如果剔除這些噪音，洛杉磯的同店季度環比收入增長將超過 5%。我們仍然看到洛杉磯的健康需求，並且沒有感受到娛樂業工人罷工的任何負面影響行業。我們的直接風險並不大，但承認它可能會軟化未來幾個月的整體市場狀況，這可能會減緩我們釋放一些空置單位的能力。

In addition to the strike, we continue to see more nonpaying residents move out which is resulting in at least 100 basis point drag to occupancy in the market. We view both of these issues as isolated short-term impacts to the market as the strikes will end and delinquency will gradually resolve itself which, coupled with the long-term demand, we see as catalyst for next year above average market growth in L.A.

除了罷工之外，我們繼續看到更多的非付費居民搬出，這導致市場入住率至少下降 100 個基點。我們認為這兩個問題都是對市場的孤立的短期影響，因為罷工將結束，拖欠問題將逐漸解決，再加上長期需求，我們認為這是明年洛杉磯市場增長高於平均水平的催化劑。

Moving to San Francisco. The market reported respectable quarter-over-quarter revenue growth of 3.1%, which would have been 4.6% after adjusting for the impact of rental relief receipts in the second quarter of 2022. Overall, the San Francisco market demonstrated leasing velocity in line with normal seasonal trends and met our expectations for the second quarter. The South Bay, which represents 37% of our NOI in the market, continues to be a bright spot. Prospects are telling our local teams that the area meets their hybrid work requirements by keeping them close for in-office days and providing better lifestyle options and more space and access to the natural outdoor amenities.

搬到舊金山。市場報告收入環比增長 3.1%，而在調整 2022 年第二季度租金減免收入的影響後，該數字將達到 4.6%。總體而言，舊金山市場的租賃速度與正常水平相符。季節性趨勢並滿足我們對第二季度的預期。南灣占我們市場 NOI 的 37%，仍然是一個亮點。潛在客戶告訴我們的當地團隊，該地區可以滿足他們的混合工作要求，讓他們在辦公日保持近距離，並提供更好的生活方式選擇和更多的空間以及使用自然戶外設施的機會。

Our recent resident survey tells us that 77% of our residents in the San Francisco Bay Area are either hybrid or fully in office. In downtown San Francisco, we hear from our teams that new residents say that they are leasing to get closer to work. The good news is that the quality of life in downtown San Francisco continues to improve and the local government's focus seems to be showing some signs of promise. While our pricing power in the submarket remains less than desired, and concessions are still being used, downtown has been stable and allowed us to capture demand and regain occupancy to 96% in that submarket.

我們最近的居民調查告訴我們，舊金山灣區 77% 的居民要么是混合型的，要么是完全在辦公室的。在舊金山市中心，我們的團隊從新居民那裡得知，他們正在租房，以便離工作地點更近。好消息是，舊金山市中心的生活質量持續改善，當地政府的關注似乎也顯示出了一些希望的跡象。雖然我們在子市場的定價能力仍然低於預期，並且仍在使用優惠，但市中心一直保持穩定，使我們能夠抓住需求並將該子市場的入住率恢復到 96%。

The overall sentiment in the San Francisco market indicates that the tech layoffs are mostly behind us, and there's a lot of momentum around the AI, which keeps us optimistic on the continued recovery in this market.

舊金山市場的整體情緒表明，科技行業的裁員大部分已經過去，人工智能領域的勢頭強勁，這讓我們對這個市場的持續復甦保持樂觀。

Heading to Seattle, while there is vibrancy in the market with improvements in the quality of life issues, some return to office activity and tourism back to pre-pandemic levels, the market continues to underperform our expectations. While net effective pricing in the overall market is now 2% below the March 2020 levels, there's a wide dispersion among submarkets with the downtown Seattle well below the March 2020 levels primarily due to the continued concession use in the submarket.

前往西雅圖，雖然隨著生活質量問題的改善，市場充滿活力，一些人恢復了辦公活動，旅遊業也回到了大流行前的水平，但市場的表現仍然低於我們的預期。雖然整個市場的淨有效定價目前比 2020 年 3 月的水平低 2%，但各子市場之間存在很大差異，其中西雅圖市中心的價格遠低於 2020 年 3 月的水平，這主要是由於該子市場持續使用特許權。

Overall, Seattle has been a market that has struggled to deliver consistent strong demand over the last couple of years as its tech-heavy workforce has had the flexibility to work from anywhere. For this market to fully recover, it needs to see more consistent strong job growth with better quality of life conditions that will bring people back to the market.

總體而言，西雅圖在過去幾年中一直難以滿足持續強勁的需求，因為其技術密集型勞動力可以靈活地在任何地方工作。為了使這個市場完全復甦，需要看到更持續強勁的就業增長和更好的生活質量，從而將人們帶回市場。

The good news is that we are starting to see some positive signs in South Lake Union, which is a tech-heavy neighborhood in the city of Seattle, and this is likely due to the Amazon return to office, which began in May. We are hopeful that this activity will soon spill over to the other downtown submarkets.

好消息是，我們開始在南聯合湖看到一些積極的跡象，這是西雅圖市的一個科技密集區，這可能是由於亞馬遜於 5 月份開始重返辦公室。我們希望這項活動能夠很快蔓延到市中心的其他子市場。

Finally, in our expansion markets, which currently make up about 5% of our same-store NOI, revenue performance has been mostly in line with our acquisition pro formas and guidance expectations. Our portfolios in Denver, Dallas and Austin continue to be the most impacted by new supply like we discussed last quarter. Meanwhile, Atlanta remains a bright spot with double-digit revenue growth for both the quarter and year-to-date.

最後，在我們的擴張市場中，目前約占我們同店 NOI 的 5%，收入表現基本符合我們的收購預計和指導預期。正如我們上季度討論的那樣，我們在丹佛、達拉斯和奧斯汀的投資組合仍然是受新供應影響最大的。與此同時，亞特蘭大仍然是一個亮點，本季度和年初至今收入均實現兩位數增長。

In a minute, I will turn it over to Bob to discuss our operating expense performance and the balance sheet. But let me take a minute to discuss our operating platform, which is humming as we continue to reap the benefits of our focus on innovation and the technology evolution of Equity.

稍後，我將把它交給鮑勃討論我們的運營費用績效和資產負債表。但讓我花一點時間討論一下我們的運營平台，隨著我們繼續從專注於創新和股權技術發展中獲益，該平台正在蓬勃發展。

We are focused on the customer experience and the feedback we receive from our customers help us in developing our platform to drive superior financial performance and customer satisfaction. The insights we gained from our resident survey, which garnered more than 32,000 responses validates our strategy of combining our growing data science capabilities with streamlined execution while delivering self-service solutions to our customers.

我們專注於客戶體驗，從客戶那裡收到的反饋有助於我們開發平台，以推動卓越的財務業績和客戶滿意度。我們從居民調查中獲得的見解得到了超過 32,000 份回复，這驗證了我們將不斷增長的數據科學能力與簡化的執行相結合，同時向客戶提供自助服務解決方案的戰略。

Leveraging data and analytics on top of our resident feedback will create further opportunities to expand our operating margin. With a fully centralized and mobile operating platform, we are in a strong position to create a seamless customer experience with a platform that continues to allow us to innovate, experiment and rapidly scale what works across this portfolio. I want to give a shout out for our amazing teams across our platform for their continued dedication to their residents and focus on delivering these terrific operating results.

在居民反饋的基礎上利用數據和分析將為擴大我們的營業利潤創造更多機會。憑藉完全集中式的移動操作平台，我們處於有利地位，可以通過該平台創造無縫的客戶體驗，該平台繼續使我們能夠創新、實驗和快速擴展整個產品組合的運作方式。我想為我們平台上出色的團隊大聲喝彩，感謝他們持續致力於為居民服務，並專注於提供這些出色的運營成果。

With that, I will turn the call over to Bob.

這樣，我會將電話轉給鮑勃。

Thanks, Michael. Let me start with expenses before covering our financing activities. We reported same-store expense growth of 5.5% in the quarter. The main drivers of this growth were repairs and maintenance and on-site payroll. Repairs and maintenance growth in the quarter was driven by continued wage pressure, particularly from contracted services.

謝謝，邁克爾。在介紹我們的融資活動之前，讓我先從支出開始。我們報告本季度同店費用增長 5.5%。這一增長的主要驅動力是維修和保養以及現場工資。本季度維修和保養業務的增長是由持續的工資壓力（尤其是來自合同服務的工資壓力）推動的。

Payroll growth was mostly due to elevated employee benefit costs during the quarter relative to the same period last year. Without these costs, reported payroll growth would have been 2.6%, which was more in line with our expectations and reflective of the efficiencies we have been achieving from our various operating initiatives.

薪資增長主要是由於本季度員工福利成本較去年同期上升。如果沒有這些成本，報告的工資增長將為 2.6%，這更符合我們的預期，也反映了我們通過各種運營舉措所取得的效率。

For the full year, same-store expense guidance, we have lowered the midpoint of our range by 25 basis points to 4.25%. This reduction is driven by expectations of continued low real estate tax growth due to modest rate increases and successful appeals activity as well as significantly lower expectations for commodity prices, which are muting utilities expense growth. These more favorable trends will be partially offset by slightly higher payroll and other on-site expenses stemming from the elevated employee benefit costs mentioned from Q2 and administrative costs from the expiration of the eviction moratoriums, respectively.

對於全年同店費用指導，我們將範圍中點降低了 25 個基點至 4.25%。這一下調的原因是，由於利率適度上調和成功的上訴活動，預計房地產稅增長將持續走低，而且對大宗商品價格的預期大幅降低，從而抑制了公用事業費用的增長。這些更有利的趨勢將被第二季度提到的員工福利成本上升和暫停驅逐到期後的行政成本分別導致的工資和其他現場費用的略微增加所部分抵消。

The revised guidance implies a significantly lower rate of growth for expenses during the second half of the year relative to our results through Q2. We think that this is challenging, but definitely achievable given the easier comparable period from the back half of 2022 and the visibility we have into the items I just described.

修訂後的指導意味著，相對於我們第二季度的業績，今年下半年的支出增長率將顯著降低。我們認為，這是一項挑戰，但考慮到 2022 年下半年的可比較時期以及我們對我剛才描述的項目的可見性，這絕對是可以實現的。

Finally, turning to the capital markets and our 2023 refinancing activities. As we previously discussed, the company has an $800 million secured debt pool that matures in the middle of the fourth quarter. The debt originated from the Archstone transaction back in 2013, currently carries a rate of 4.21% and a portion of it needs to be refinanced in the secured market for tax reasons.

最後，轉向資本市場和我們 2023 年的再融資活動。正如我們之前討論的，該公司擁有 8 億美元的擔保債務池，將於第四季度中期到期。該債務源自 2013 年的 Archstone 交易，目前利率為 4.21%，出於稅收原因，其中一部分需要在擔保市場進行再融資。

During Q2, we began marketing this opportunity to lenders, and I'm happy to report we received significant interest from a variety of capital providers. In July, we selected lenders and entered into 2 loan commitments and locked in slightly below 5.25% rate for the $530 million that we're refinancing. This was approximately 135 basis points over the 10-year treasury at the time and was lower than what we would have expected to do had we been issuing an unsecured bond.

在第二季度，我們開始向貸方推銷這個機會，我很高興地報告說，我們收到了來自各種資本提供商的濃厚興趣。 7 月份，我們選擇了貸方並簽訂了 2 項貸款承諾，並將我們再融資的 5.3 億美元的利率鎖定為略低於 5.25%。這比當時的 10 年期國債高約 135 個基點，低於我們發行無擔保債券時的預期。

As you may recall, we previously also entered into interest rate swaps to hedge this financing, and those were settled for an over $25 million gain. When the gain is amortized over the life of the loan, it results in an economic cost for these financings of 4.7%, which we believe is an excellent outcome, given the environment. Once these loans close, we would expect the company to end the year with approximately 8% floating rate debt, over $2 billion in immediately available liquidity and no real debt maturities outside of commercial paper until June of 2025.

您可能還記得，我們​​之前還進行了利率掉期交易來對沖這筆融資，這些交易最終獲得了超過 2500 萬美元的收益。當收益在貸款期限內攤銷時，這些融資的經濟成本為 4.7%，考慮到環境，我們認為這是一個很好的結果。一旦這些貸款結束，我們預計該公司今年年底的浮動利率債務約為 8%，可立即使用的流動性超過 20 億美元，並且到 2025 年 6 月之前商業票據之外沒有實際債務到期。

This, coupled with the lowest leverage in the company's history position us very well should any opportunities arise.

再加上公司歷史上最低的槓桿率，一旦出現任何機會，我們就將處於有利地位。

With that, I'll turn it over to the operator for question and answers.

這樣，我會將其轉交給接線員進行問答。

(Operator Instructions) We'll go first to Eric Wolfe with Citi.

（操作員指示）我們首先去找花旗銀行的埃里克·沃爾夫 (Eric Wolfe)。

Looking at your guidance, there's a nice ramp in your earnings in the back half of the year. Just curious if there's anything sort of more onetime or seasonal or nonrecurring on the expense side there? And if I were to sort of just take that at run rate, is that sort of a good run rate to think about going into 2024? Or again, is there something that's sort of elevating it?

看看你的指導，你的收入在今年下半年有一個不錯的增長。只是好奇費用方面是否有更多一次性或季節性或非經常性的費用？如果我只考慮運行率，那麼考慮進入 2024 年，這樣的運行率是否合適？或者再說一遍，有什麼東西可以提升它嗎？

Eric, it's Bob. So looking at kind of our NFFO for Q3 and Q4, it's -- there's nothing really, in particular, that's a standout on a onetime item. It's really the cumulative growth in NOI that you're seeing in Q3 and then pushing that into Q4 coming from same store.

埃里克，是鮑勃。因此，看看我們第三季度和第四季度的 NFFO，就一次性項目而言，確實沒有什麼特別突出的。這實際上是您在第三季度看到的 NOI 的累積增長，然後將其從同一家商店推到第四季度。

Drilling down a little bit into that, I would say the only thing from a sequential standpoint that is maybe a little bit abnormal is the bad debt component. So we're seeing bad debt improve in the fourth quarter -- and in the third quarter sequentially as we get back to a normalization. So beyond that, there isn't really anything sequentially strange about the -- or onetime in nature about the growth or run rate.

深入研究一下，我想說，從順序的角度來看，唯一可能有點不正常的是壞賬部分。因此，隨著我們恢復正常化，我們看到壞賬在第四季度有所改善，並且在第三季度也有所改善。因此，除此之外，關於增長或運行率，或者本質上來說，並沒有什麼連續的奇怪之處。

As it relates to '24, I think it's a little early to talk about kind of '24, kind of where we are in terms of positioning. But what I would tell you is our numbers are kind of following that typical seasonal pattern that we would have seen and same-store is really driving the operational results.

由於它與“24”有關，我認為現在談論“24”還為時過早，這就是我們在定位方面所處的位置。但我要告訴你的是，我們的數字有點遵循我們所看到的典型季節性模式，而同店確實推動了運營業績。

Understood. That's helpful. And then you mentioned L.A. and the writer strike, the actor strike. It doesn't sound like it's really impacting bad debt or rent growth yet, but you said it could impact in a couple of months. Just curious what that's sort of based on and that's already factored into your guidance as well.

明白了。這很有幫助。然後你提到了洛杉磯和作家罷工、演員罷工。聽起來它還沒有真正影響壞賬或租金增長，但你說它可能會在幾個月內產生影響。只是好奇這是基於什麼，並且這也已經納入您的指導中。

Eric, this is Michael. So I think right now, of course, we're watching to see, is anybody turning keys in, breaking leases, at a pace that's kind of above what you would expect to see. And we really just haven't seen any impact from the strikes and our on-site folks are telling us just the overall direct exposure to it doesn't seem to be significant.

埃里克，這是邁克爾。所以我認為現在，當然，我們正在觀察是否有人以超出您預期的速度交鑰匙、違反租約。我們確實還沒有看到罷工的任何影響，我們的現場工作人員告訴我們，總體上直接受到的影響似乎並不大。

I think my comments in the prepared remarks were -- right now, we clearly are running occupancy about 100 basis points below normal for this time of year in that L.A. market. So the ability to lease up some of these units that have been vacant, which were from the delinquent, long-term delinquent residents moving out earlier in the year than what we thought. We just think that if the strike is prolonged and keeps going on, it could just create a little bit of a pause in people's willingness to make decisions, to move into a new place, and that could impact just the overall demand profile in the market. But to date, we're really not seeing anything, and I'm not overly concerned about it. But it is something we just got to be aware of.

我認為我在準備好的發言中的評論是——目前，洛杉磯市場的入住率顯然比一年中這個時候的正常水平低約 100 個基點。因此，有能力出租其中一些已空置的單位，這些單位來自於拖欠、長期拖欠的居民，他們比我們想像的更早搬出。我們只是認為，如果罷工持續下去，可能只會讓人們做出決定、搬到新地方的意願稍有停頓，而這可能會影響市場的整體需求狀況。但到目前為止，我們確實沒有看到任何東西，而且我並沒有過度擔心。但這是我們必須意識到的事情。

We'll go next to John Pawlowski with Green Street.

我們將和格林街一起去約翰·帕夫洛夫斯基旁邊。

My first question is on the transaction market. Alex, just curious what range of pricing do you think you could achieve on kind of large urban assets in the central business districts of San Fran and Seattle today, just given the sentiment in these markets is still pretty -- well, maybe it's proven, still pretty down. So just curious what type of bid for those types of assets is today.

我的第一個問題是關於交易市場的。亞歷克斯，只是好奇你認為今天舊金山和西雅圖中央商務區的大型城市資產可以達到什麼定價範圍，考慮到這些市場的情緒仍然相當不錯——好吧，也許這已經被證明了，仍然很沮喪。所以只是好奇今天對這些類型資產的出價是什麼類型。

John, it's Alex. Yes, there would not be a robust bid today. Larger properties are harder to sell. There's some contrary and money out there, but I don't know if it's willing to make a big bet. So I really don't have an exact number because I just haven't seen a trade. I think most people, if they didn't have to trade, just wouldn't be willing to accept the number. So it's almost theoretical at this point.

約翰，這是亞歷克斯。是的，今天不會出現強勁的出價。較大的房產更難出售。那裡有一些相反和金錢，但我不知道它是否願意下一個大賭注。所以我真的沒有確切的數字，因為我只是沒有看到交易。我想大多數人，如果不需要交易，就不會願意接受這個數字。所以目前這幾乎是理論上的。

I think over time, that will change as the markets continue to improve and access to capital becomes more normal. It's just such an abnormally hard time to raise sizable capital that I really think it would be a tough time. It would be -- if it was a distressed sale, it would be a pretty high cap rate and maybe not indicative of what the more -- less distressed owner would be willing to sell at.

我認為隨著時間的推移，隨著市場的不斷改善和資本獲取變得更加正常，這種情況將會改變。現在籌集大量資金異常困難，我真的認為這將是一段艱難的時期。如果這是一次不良銷售，那將是一個相當高的資本化率，而且也許並不能表明更不那麼不良的所有者願意以何種價格出售。

And John, it's Mark. Just to add to that. I mean when you think about what supports apartment values, there's certainly a lot of unallocated private capital. I mean, we've heard numbers up to $800 billion of private capital looking worldwide for real estate exposure. So I think people, chief investment officers, those kind of funds just need to see some stability before they're willing to move. I'm hopeful that towards the end of this year and early next, we'll be talking to you about some better numbers in those markets operationally. And I think that will also encourage capital flows. But I agree with Alex. I think it'd be really hard to peg a cap rate. It's almost like on a per unit per square foot basis kind of conversation at the moment. But I think that's going to shift given the amount of capital on the sidelines. And given our hope that operating results will improve over the next 12 months.

約翰，是馬克。只是補充一下。我的意思是，當你考慮什麼支撐公寓價值時，肯定有大量未分配的私人資本。我的意思是，我們聽說有高達 8000 億美元的私人資本在全球範圍內尋找房地產投資。因此，我認為人們，首席投資官，這類基金只需要看到一定的穩定性，然後才願意採取行動。我希望在今年年底和明年初，我們將與您討論這些市場的一些更好的運營數據。我認為這也將鼓勵資本流動。但我同意亞歷克斯的觀點。我認為確定上限利率真的很難。目前這幾乎就像是在每平方英尺的基礎上進行的對話。但我認為，考慮到觀望資本的數量，這種情況將會發生變化。我們希望未來 12 個月的經營業績將會有所改善。

Okay. That makes sense. I guess, over the coming months or quarters when there is a little bit more price discovery, do you expect cap rates for these types of larger gateway trophy assets to be meaningfully higher than more suburban assets in this kind of post-COVID environment?

好的。這就說得通了。我想，在未來幾個月或幾個季度，當價格發現更多時，您是否預計在這種後疫情環境下，這些類型的大型門戶獎杯資產的資本化率會明顯高於更多郊區資產？

Well, what you run into is what ends up being a really compelling discount to replacement cost. So I think people will start looking at that and realize that getting in at a good basis in one of these good cities is just really compelling. So I just really think that will be a floor and we'll prevent too much of a gap from arising.

好吧，你遇到的最終結果是相對於重置成本來說確實有令人信服的折扣。因此，我認為人們會開始關注這一點，並意識到在這些好城市之一打下良好的基礎是非常有吸引力的。所以我真的認為這將是一個底線，我們將防止出現太大的差距。

Okay. Final question, Mark. Just longer term, as you see these cities heal from COVID, what -- and not meant to be precise, but rough order of magnitude, what's the right urban versus suburban mix in the EQR portfolio 5 years from now while we're on this call?

好的。最後一個問題，馬克。從長遠來看，當你看到這些城市從新冠疫情中恢復過來時，從現在起 5 年後，當我們討論這個問題時，EQR 投資組合中的城市與郊區的正確組合是什麼——這並不是精確的，而是粗略的數量級。稱呼？

Great question. We've sort of thought about, as we see ourselves as sort of 60% or so urban right now. And to get that number below 50% would probably be a goal. I think expanding into the Sunbelt markets, as you know, is a goal, and I think a great opportunity with the amount of product that's coming through. And I think in the suburban markets in some of our current coastal areas is a good idea too.

很好的問題。我們已經考慮過，因為我們認為自己現在有 60% 左右的城市人口。使這個數字低於 50% 可能是一個目標。如您所知，我認為擴展到陽光地帶市場是一個目標，而且我認為隨著產品數量的增加，這是一個很好的機會。我認為在我們目前一些沿海地區的郊區市場也是一個好主意。

So my guess, John, is you'll see sort of 1/3 of the portfolio in Denver and the Sunbelt markets 5 years from now. And you'll sort of see more of a 50-50 split urban, suburban. But we are a creature of opportunity. And if there was an opportunity to be -- to stay more urban because it was just absolutely compelling prices, as Alex described, John, we'd certainly think hard about that. I mean we're not -- we feel like having a more balanced platform will give us better cash flow growth, more stable cash flow growth over time. But the name of the game is buying right. And if we can buy very well, we might move tactically for a while a different direction.

所以，約翰，我的猜測是，5 年後您將看到 1/3 的投資組合位於丹佛和陽光地帶市場。你會看到更多的是 50-50 的城市和郊區分割。但我們是機會的創造者。如果有機會留在城市，因為它的價格絕對有吸引力，正如亞歷克斯所描述的那樣，約翰，我們當然會認真考慮這一點。我的意思是我們不是——我們覺得擁有一個更平衡的平台將為我們帶來更好的現金流增長，隨著時間的推移，現金流增長更穩定。但遊戲的名稱是買對。如果我們能夠很好地購買，我們可能會在戰術上暫時轉向不同的方向。

We'll go next to Steve Sakwa with Evercore ISI.

接下來我們將與 Evercore ISI 的 Steve Sakwa 進行對話。

I was wondering if you could maybe just talk about where you're sending out renewal notices. I know you've provided some July data. But like what is August and September look like? And I guess, where do those discussions look like? And I guess, where are you seeing the most pressure on the new leases?

我想知道您是否可以談談您在哪裡發送續訂通知。我知道您提供了一些 7 月份的數據。但是八月和九月是什麼樣子呢？我想，這些討論是什麼樣的？我想，您認為新租約的壓力最大的地方在哪裡？

Steve, this is Michael. So for the renewals right now, you're right. We've got -- our quotes are out there for the next 3 months or so. It's been fairly consistent as what we've seen in the last couple of months. And right now, based on conversations we've been seeing through our centralized renewal team, we don't really expect to see a lot of variation. We think we're going to continue to renew about 55% to 60% of our residents and achieve right around a 5% to 5.5% kind of achieved renewal rate growth, which incorporates a little bit more negotiation. And typically, what you see is as you get into the beginning of the peak leasing season, our centralized renewal teams, we tightened up that negotiation range, call it to like 100, 150 basis points up-quote.

史蒂夫，這是邁克爾。所以對於現在的續訂，你是對的。我們已經提供了未來 3 個月左右的報價。這與我們過去幾個月看到的情況相當一致。目前，根據我們通過集中更新團隊進行的對話，我們並不真正期望看到太多變化。我們認為我們將繼續為約 55% 至 60% 的居民提供續約，並實現約 5% 至 5.5% 的續約率增長，這需要更多的談判。通常情況下，您會看到，當您進入租賃旺季開始時，我們的集中續約團隊會收緊談判範圍，將其稱為 100、150 個基點的上調報價。

Now what we expect to see as we get in towards the tail end of the peak leasing season just to kind of drop that off a little bit and probably negotiate about 200 basis points off of the quotes that are out there. But again, I think we remain really optimistic about the performance. Centralizing this team has really given us the ability to kind of pivot quickly and really deliver consistent results.

現在，當我們進入租賃旺季尾聲時，我們期望看到的只是稍微降低一點，並可能在現有報價基礎上協商約 200 個基點。但我認為我們對業績仍然非常樂觀。集中這個團隊確實使我們能夠快速調整併真正交付一致的結果。

In terms of the new lease pressure right now, I think if you would just look at some of the reported stats and you could see kind of in Seattle and San Francisco, where you're still doing that concessions in those urban centers, that's definitely weighing in on some of our ability to have a new lease change kind of go positive. But again, I think overall, where we sit today in this leasing season, it's playing out kind of exactly like we thought, where rents are sitting, where our new lease changes and the renewal performance and we just see kind of the markets reacting like they normally will through kind of the season, and that's kind of what's baked into the guidance that we have.

就目前新的租賃壓力而言，我認為如果您只看一些報告的統計數據，您可以在西雅圖和舊金山看到一些情況，您仍在這些城市中心做出讓步，這絕對是權衡我們是否有能力讓新的租約變更取得積極進展。但我再次認為，總體而言，我們今天在這個租賃季節的情況，情況與我們想像的完全一樣，租金情況，我們的新租約變化和續約表現，我們只是看到市場的反應就像他們通常會度過某個季節，這就是我們現有指導中的內容。

Great. And then I guess just on the development front. I know you've got a handful of projects, I think one wholly owned and several joint venture developments. Can you just remind us kind of where those development yields are likely to pencil out and I guess, Mark, how are you thinking about the prospect of any future development? If we're hearing correctly, merchant builders are starting to scale back their development teams and hopefully, over the next 18 months, that development pipeline starts to shrink. But I guess how are you thinking about the future pipeline for EQR?

偉大的。然後我想只是在開發方面。我知道你們有一些項目，我認為有一個全資開發項目和幾個合資開發項目。你能提醒我們這些開發收益可能會在哪裡嗎？我想，馬克，你如何看待未來開發的前景？如果我們沒聽錯的話，商業建築商正在開始縮減他們的開發團隊，並希望在接下來的 18 個月內，開發渠道開始收縮。但我猜您如何看待 EQR 的未來管道？

Steve, it's Mark, and Alex may join in a second. I mean we've got -- it's good to have a solid internal team, which we have and good JV relationships with [Toll] and others. And we see all this stuff. But as Alex has said on prior calls, it's just not penciling out. There's not enough of a risk premium in what is a risky endeavor of development.

史蒂夫，我是馬克，亞歷克斯可能會馬上加入。我的意思是，我們擁有一支堅實的內部團隊，並且與 [Toll] 和其他公司建立了良好的合資關係，這很好。我們看到了所有這些東西。但正如亞歷克斯在之前的電話中所說，事情還沒有結束。冒險的開發活動沒有足夠的風險溢價。

So for us, I think acquisitions seem like a better place to invest capital for the time being. I think what could change there is just some sense that either rents have moved a lot. I doubt costs are going to move down in any material regard. But I think right now, I like the development pipeline being smaller.

因此，對我們來說，我認為收購似乎是目前投資資本的更好選擇。我認為可能會改變的只是某種意義上，租金已經發生了很大的變化。我懷疑成本是否會在任何實質性方面下降。但我認為現在，我喜歡縮小開發渠道。

In terms of the yields we're looking at, it's mid- to high 5s on our existing portfolio. The Laguna Clara deal in California, which is a one mile away from Apple's headquarters deal is a little lower than that. It's an existing asset we're densifying. So there's less risk since we know the area so well. But beyond that, Steve, they're kind of high-5 type of situations and to do a development deal, we need something to get into that close to that 6 range. And I don't know, we may start a deal this year. We may not start anything. We'll see.

就我們所關注的收益率而言，我們現有投資組合的收益率處於中高水平。距蘋果總部一英里的加利福尼亞州拉古納克拉拉（Laguna Clara）的交易價格略低於此。這是我們正在強化的現有資產。因此，由於我們非常了解該地區，因此風險較小。但除此之外，史蒂夫，他們屬於高 5 類型的情況，為了達成開發協議，我們需要一些東西來進入接近 6 的範圍。我不知道，我們可能會在今年開始達成協議。我們可能不會開始任何事情。我們拭目以待。

We'll go next to Josh Dennerlein with Bank of America.

接下來我們將邀請美國銀行的喬什·丹納萊因 (Josh Dennerlein)。

Michael, in your opening remarks, you mentioned operating platform initiatives and I think you mentioned some margin expansion potential there. Any early thoughts on where the margins can ultimately go? And maybe over what kind of time frame you're thinking?

邁克爾，在您的開場白中，您提到了運營平台計劃，我認為您提到了那裡的一些利潤擴張潛力。關於利潤率最終走向何方有什麼早期想法嗎？也許您正在考慮什麼樣的時間範圍？

Josh, this is Michael. So maybe I'll just hit on overall kind of some of the initiatives and the innovations, and I'll let Bob kind of touch base on the actual margins. So I think what we put out in our May investor presentation, really just kind of highlighted the initiatives that we have keyed up. And this year, specific to 2023, we have about $10 million included in the NOI guidance with about 2/3 of that being on the expense front as we keep working through kind of the innovations of leveraging resources across assets.

喬什，這是邁克爾。因此，也許我只會談談一些舉措和創新的總體情況，然後讓鮑勃根據實際利潤進行一些接觸。因此，我認為我們在 5 月份的投資者演示中所做的內容實際上只是強調了我們已經重點關注的舉措。今年，具體到 2023 年，我們在 NOI 指導中包含了約 1000 萬美元，其中約 2/3 用於支出，因為我們不斷致力於跨資產利用資源的創新。

And right now, we're really focused on kind of teeing up the next round of initiatives and it's really more income-based and probably other income-based items that will really kick into gear in the back half of this year and start delivering kind of results into 2024. Right now, we are literally right on track with our numbers, and we feel really confident about the incremental $10 million for '23 and maybe, Bob, if you just want to hit on the overall margin impact of that.

現在，我們真正專注於準備下一輪計劃，它實際上更多的是基於收入的項目，可能還有其他基於收入的項目，這些項目將在今年下半年真正啟動並開始提供類似的服務到 2024 年的結果。現在，我們的數字確實走在正軌上，我們對 23 年增加 1000 萬美元非常有信心，也許，鮑勃，如果你只是想看看它對整體利潤率的影響。

Yes. So from a margin standpoint, that will all be accretive to margin. I guess I would say that in the space, we talk -- we all talk about very different margins. So I'm going to talk about the margin, I guess, that I think is most important, which is the cash flow margin, which we highlighted at the NAREIT conference.

是的。因此，從利潤的角度來看，這一切都會增加利潤。我想我會說，在這個領域，我們談論——我們都談論非常不同的利潤率。因此，我想談談我認為最重要的利潤率，即現金流量利潤率，我們在 NAREIT 會議上強調了這一點。

So cash flow margin, meaning after CapEx, after expense and all of that. We're already running at a league-leading level as it relates to that cash flow margin. And when you layer in the initiatives that Michael is talking about, and that's inclusive of what you have to spend in order to achieve that ROI in CapEx, et cetera, we think we can get a few percentage points of incremental increase there, and that's what we're striving for.

因此，現金流量利潤率是指扣除資本支出、費用等之後。就現金流利潤率而言，我們已經處於聯盟領先水平。當你將邁克爾正在談論的舉措分層時，這包括你為了實現資本支出投資回報率而必須花費的費用，等等，我們認為我們可以在那裡獲得幾個百分點的增量增長，這就是我們正在努力的目標。

Okay. Appreciate that. And then at the opening remarks on Seattle, it just seems like it's the only legacy market you're facing with supply concerns. How long will it take to kind of work through that supply?

好的。感謝。然後，在西雅圖的開場白中，這似乎是您面臨供應問題的唯一傳統市場。通過該供應需要多長時間才能完成工作？

Yes. So Josh, this is Michael again. So right now in Seattle, we're kind of actually in a low of going up against kind of head-to-head competitive supply. If you look at what's expected to be delivered and completed in '24, I think we're going to see that Seattle number kind of in jump on us, and it is something we're absolutely kind of watching and kind of making sure that those units will be delivered. And when we create our guidance for '24, it's something that we will fold into that market.

是的。喬什，這又是邁克爾。所以現在在西雅圖，我們實際上處於與正面競爭供應的低谷。如果你看看預計在 24 年交付和完成的項目，我想我們會看到西雅圖的數字會突然出現在我們身上，我們絕對會關注並確保這一點這些單位將被交付。當我們為 24 世紀制定指導方針時，我們將把它納入該市場。

For us, right now, Seattle, it's just been -- it kind of gets momentum and then it stalls a little bit and then it gets momentum. So we really just haven't felt that consistent kind of strong job growth that's really needed to get us back on track and really get us out of that concessionary environment. But to date, it's not really the new supply that's been impacting us.

對於我們來說，現在，西雅圖，它剛剛獲得動力，然後有點停滯，然後又獲得動力。因此，我們確實還沒有感受到那種持續強勁的就業增長，而這種增長是讓我們重回正軌並真正擺脫這種優惠環境所必需的。但到目前為止，影響我們的並不是新供應。

Yes, I just want to make a comment on Seattle. It's obviously, for most of us pretty far away. So people aren't out there quite as much. But there's been an amazing renaissance in the city in terms of access to the waterfront, very similar to the big dig in Boston. I think that's a very positive catalyst for quality of life in the downtown area where we have a lot of assets. I do think there's an election coming up. There's been an improvement in attitude in city government about livability and those issues. That's a positive. But I think Michael is right. I think you're going to see a lot of supply, which, on the one hand, Seattle is a market where actually, the percent of rent to income is lowest with New York for us. So there's an ability to pay more rent and there's a lot of high-paying jobs and a lot of good industry in the Seattle metro area.

是的，我只是想對西雅圖發表評論。顯然，對於我們大多數人來說，這還很遙遠。所以人們並沒有那麼多。但在通往海濱的道路方面，這座城市經歷了驚人的複興，與波士頓的大挖掘非常相似。我認為這對於我們擁有大量資產的市中心地區的生活質量來說是一個非常積極的催化劑。我確實認為即將舉行選舉。市政府對宜居性和這些問題的態度有所改善。這是積極的。但我認為邁克爾是對的。我認為你會看到大量的供應，一方面，西雅圖是一個市場，實際上，對於我們來說，租金與收入的百分比是紐約最低的。因此，西雅圖都市區有能力支付更多的租金，並且有很多高薪工作和很多好的工業。

And as the city gets, we hope more livable as people take advantage of these new waterfront amenities. And I think we feel good about Seattle and its ability to draw people in, again, in scale. And Amazon has just kind of called people back to the office. Our folks on the ground say there is some momentum there in South Lake Union, where Amazon has a lot of office workers. So we'll see where that takes us as well. But you asked a very narrow question. I'm giving you more, but I do have a sense of optimism about Seattle, but we have to navigate some of that supply the next, really in '24 and '25 more than in '23.

隨著城市的發展，我們希望人們利用這些新的海濱設施，變得更加宜居。我認為我們對西雅圖及其大規模吸引人們的能力感到滿意。亞馬遜剛剛把人們叫回辦公室。我們的現場人員表示，南湖聯合區有一些勢頭，亞馬遜在那裡有很多辦公室員工。所以我們也會看看這會帶我們去哪裡。但你問了一個非常狹隘的問題。我給了你更多，但我確實對西雅圖有一種樂觀的感覺，但我們必須在下一個供應中導航，實際上在'24和'25比在'23更多。

We'll go next to John Kim with BMO Capital Markets.

接下來我們將請 BMO 資本市場部的約翰·金 (John Kim) 發言。

You described the strong backdrop in your markets and potentially some demand catalysts going forward. But if we just wanted to isolate July, it looks like the blended lease growth rates had decelerated versus June. And I'm wondering if you -- has that surprised you at all or potentially -- it seems like it would have peaked now rather than peaking a month ago.

您描述了市場的強勁背景以及未來潛在的一些需求催化劑。但如果我們只是想孤立 7 月，那麼混合租賃增長率似乎比 6 月有所放緩。我想知道你是否——這是否讓你感到驚訝或可能——看起來它現在就會達到頂峰，而不是一個月前達到頂峰。

Yes. John, this is Michael. So I'm going to touch on a few different things here. Let me -- I'm going to start just kind of the rents first, and then I'll address the new lease change relative to July. And I'll tell you just -- we went back and we've looked at like the last 15 years of our data and our pricing trend which is that net effective price for our units. It typically peaks out somewhere in that late August to -- or late July to mid-August period. And really the first week of August is kind of that most common time frame.

是的。約翰，這是邁克爾。所以我將在這裡談一些不同的事情。讓我——我將首先討論租金，然後我將討論相對於 7 月份的新租約變化。我會告訴你 - 我們回顧了過去 15 年的數據和定價趨勢，即我們單位的淨有效價格。它通常在八月下旬至八月中旬的某個時間達到頂峰。事實上，八月的第一周是最常見的時間範圍。

I'll tell you, we've had really strong foot traffic, strong application volume. So I'm not going to be surprised that if we don't see a few more weeks of slight increases in rates kind of coming through our system. And that being said, I mean, right now, this pricing trend is up about 6% since the beginning of the year, and it's right where we thought it was going to be. So even if we just peaked out at this level right now, it's kind of right in line and we'll be just buying in terms of it flowing through the other stats.

我告訴你，我們的人流量非常大，申請量也很大。因此，如果我們沒有看到我們的系統在接下來幾週內出現利率小幅上漲，我不會感到驚訝。話雖這麼說，我的意思是，目前這一定價趨勢自年初以來上漲了約 6%，而這正是我們預期的水平。因此，即使我們現在剛剛達到這個水平的頂峰，這也是符合預期的，我們只會根據其他統計數據的流動情況來購買。

In terms of that deceleration of new lease change, I'd start by saying I would not read too much into any single month. As this stat, it's really better to look at over time. And I think the -- what you saw in our release, it was like a 10 basis point difference. That's just a lot of noise from maybe who moved out versus who moved in and where that was being done. And right now, I'll say that the new lease change is being more impacted by that concession use in the urban centers of Seattle and San Francisco.

就新租約變更的減速而言，我首先要說的是，我不會對任何一個月進行太多解讀。作為這個統計數據，隨著時間的推移來看確實更好。我認為——你在我們的發布中看到的，這就像 10 個基點的差異。這只是來自誰搬出、誰搬入以及在哪裡進行的大量噪音。現在，我要說的是，新的租賃變更更多地受到西雅圖和舊金山市中心的特許權使用的影響。

But again, I think as we turn the corner and we start looking at August, I wouldn't be surprised if those [numbers] inch back up a little bit. We're really in this tight band relative to our expectations of both new lease renewals and how that kind of translates into that blended new lease or the blended rate. So I wouldn't read too much into any 1 month stat.

但我再次認為，當我們轉過彎，我們開始關註八月份時，如果這些[數字]略有回升，我不會感到驚訝。相對於我們對新租約續約以及如何轉化為混合新租約或混合費率的預期，我們確實處於這個狹窄的範圍內。所以我不會過多地解讀任何 1 個月的統計數據。

Okay. On the secured debt that you raised at [4.7], it looks like your unsecured notes with a similar term trades around 50 basis points above that. How does that spread you secured versus unsecured, how is that 50 basis points compared to historical? And if this continues would the secured market look more attractive to you going forward?

好的。對於您以 [4.7] 籌集的擔保債務，看起來您的類似期限的無擔保票據的交易價格比該債務高出約 50 個基點。有擔保與無擔保的利差如何？與歷史相比，這 50 個基點如何？如果這種情況持續下去，擔保市場未來對您來說會更具吸引力嗎？

Yes. So let me break down -- John, it's Bob. Let me break down a couple of pieces. When you're comparing the [4.70] to what I'm guessing you're comparing to where our unsecured are trading today, what you're incorporating in that is the impact of the hedges, right? So in my prepared remarks, I mentioned that when we issue the secure -- we haven't issued it, but when we locked rate on the secured loan, we were at 135 basis points on the treasury at that time, which was, call it 5.25. How you get to 4.70 as you apply the gain that we got because we did some forward starting swaps at really attractive rates, and that reduced it to 4.70 .

是的。讓我分解一下——約翰，我是鮑勃。讓我分解幾個部分。當您將 [4.70] 與我猜測您正在與我們今天的無擔保交易進行比較時，您所考慮的是對沖的影響，對嗎？因此，在我準備好的發言中，我提到，當我們發行擔保時——我們還沒有發行它，但是當我們鎖定擔保貸款的利率時，我們當時的國庫利率為 135 個基點，即， 5.25。當您應用我們獲得的收益時，您如何達到 4.70 ，因為我們以非常有吸引力的利率進行了一些遠期起始掉期，這將其降低到 4.70 。

So what we should compare is really the spread, that 135 basis points that I talked about in my prepared remarks, to where the spread that would be implied at our unsecured and that's a lot more narrow. That's probably 5 to 10 basis points hit or miss between either one. So they're relatively on top of each other. We think maybe we're maybe 5 basis points inside on secured, but that's 1 day's worth of trading activity could flip you and you could be at parity.

因此，我們應該比較的實際上是利差，即我在準備好的發言中談到的 135 個基點，以及我們無抵押債券隱含的利差，而且這個利差要窄得多。兩者之間可能存在 5 到 10 個基點的偏差。所以他們相對來說是處於彼此之上的。我們認為，也許我們的安全內可能有 5 個基點，但這 1 天的交易活動可能會翻轉你，你可能會處於平價。

We'll go next to Jamie Feldman with Wells Fargo.

接下來我們將與富國銀行一起去傑米·費爾德曼 (Jamie Feldman)。

I was hoping you can dig a little deeper into D.C. across the different submarkets. It seems like it held up pretty well, but there's also a decent amount of supply. So kind of what's your outlook for the back half of the year and into '24 in that market?

我希望您能更深入地了解華盛頓特區的不同子市場。看起來它保持得很好，但供應量也相當可觀。那麼您對該市場下半年和 24 世紀的前景有何看法？

Yes. So what's amazing about D.C. and even when you drill in by submarket, you really don't see a huge differential in our performance. And I think part of that is just when we talked about new supply coming into that market, they got such a great transit environment there, that supply really in any one of these submarkets can pull from other areas. So we really haven't seen any deviation of the performance across the submarkets.

是的。因此，華盛頓特區的神奇之處在於，即使您按子市場進行深入研究，您也確實看不到我們的業績存在巨大差異。我認為其中一部分原因是，當我們談論新的供應進入該市場時，他們在那裡擁有非常好的運輸環境，這些子市場中的任何一個的供應確實可以從其他地區拉動。所以我們確實沒有看到子市場的表現有任何偏差。

Now when you look forward to the balance of the year, like it was back half loaded for delivery. So we are aware that we're going to be facing more and more competitive supply. And it is fairly dispersed across some of these submarkets but again, I don't think we're forecasting to have like more pressure in 1 submarket than the other because of that transit environment that could pull from everywhere.

現在，當你期待今年的剩餘時間時，就像它已經裝了一半以便交付一樣。所以我們意識到我們將面臨越來越有競爭力的供應。它在其中一些子市場中相當分散，但同樣，我認為我們預計一個子市場不會比另一個子市場承受更大的壓力，因為運輸環境可能來自世界各地。

The outlook for the balance of the year, it's still good, right? We're producing really strong revenue growth, good absorption of the supply, it may soften up a little bit, but I think we still have this momentum coming in. And I think it's positioned well for '24, even though you got another round of supply coming at you again. It's a market that's been demonstrating resilience and stability.

今年餘下的前景，還是不錯的，對吧？我們正在實現非常強勁的收入增長，對供應的良好吸收，它可能會稍微軟化一點，但我認為我們仍然有這種勢頭。而且我認為它在 24 年處於有利位置，即使你還有另一輪供應再次向您襲來。這是一個一直表現出彈性和穩定性的市場。

And there's been a lot of talk around the government not bringing certain agencies back to the office. Is that something that you -- that's kind of contemplated in the stats you're seeing already? Maybe those aren't really tenants that would be in your buildings? Or do you think that's a potential drag to come?

關於政府不讓某些機構重返辦公室的討論很多。這是你在已經看到的統計數據中考慮到的嗎？也許那些人並不是您建築物中的真正租戶？或者您認為這會成為潛在的阻力嗎？

Well, it's Mark and Michael may add to this. I mean through the real estate roundtable there's been a lot of advocacy around that of trying to get federal workers back on the job. I'm hopeful that continues to push. The administration put something out. It wasn't very strong on that topic but we'll continue to push for that.

好吧，馬克和邁克爾可能會補充這一點。我的意思是，通過房地產圓桌會議，有很多人主張試圖讓聯邦工作人員重返工作崗位。我希望這能繼續推動。政府推出了一些東西。在這個主題上它不是很強烈，但我們將繼續推動這一點。

I mean the federal government is such the key employer of course, in the metro, I mean implicitly in our guidance is not much of a change in the current reality on the ground, getting all those folks back in the office would be helpful. And I remind you, there is a difference between the type of employee. If you're in the national security world, you've likely been at the office the whole time. And as that group grows, there need to be closer in and closer into their office will continue to be relatively high. Again, I'm hopeful that we get -- there's been some action in Congress by the way, some bills introduced to get federal workers back in the office.

我的意思是，聯邦政府是地鐵中的主要雇主，我的意思是，我們的指導中隱含的意思是，當前的現實情況並沒有太大改變，讓所有這些人回到辦公室將會有所幫助。我提醒您，員工類型之間存在差異。如果您在國家安全領域工作，您可能一直都在辦公室。隨著該群體的成長，對他們的辦公室越來越近的需求將繼續相對較高。再次，我希望我們能得到——順便說一句，國會已經採取了一些行動，提出了一些法案來讓聯邦工作人員重返辦公室。

So I'm hopeful that, that's a positive, but it isn't -- it's not inside of our guidance that we expect improvement. It's just a hope we have both, frankly, as taxpayers and as owners of real estate in D.C.

所以我希望這是一個積極的結果，但事實並非如此——我們期望改善的情況並不在我們的指導範圍之內。坦率地說，這只是我們作為納稅人和華盛頓特區房地產所有者的希望。

Okay. That's very helpful. And then I guess a similar question across submarkets in Seattle, where so far this cycle, we've seen major differences depending on where in the market assets are located or even [b] versus [a]. What are your thoughts there? And what do you think the implications are as these transit matter as much? Or how should we be thinking about your outlook there?

好的。這非常有幫助。然後我猜想西雅圖的子市場也存在類似的問題，到目前為止，這個週期我們已經看到了主要差異，具體取決於市場資產的位置，甚至是 [b] 與 [a]。你有什麼想法？您認為這些交通同樣重要意味著什麼？或者我們應該如何考慮您在那裡的前景？

I mean for us right now, it's really like Belltown CBD is where you see the pressure, where you see the prices that are still materially off from where they were in March of 2020. The suburbs there feel good, right? It's not like great and robust, but they are healthy. So it's really just a suburban versus urban kind of differential that we see across that Seattle market. And when you think about the supply that's coming, it will impact not only urban, but also the suburban areas as well for next year in that market.

我的意思是，對我們來說，現在貝爾敦中央商務區確實是你看到壓力的地方，那裡的價格與 2020 年 3 月的水平相比仍然有很大差距。那裡的郊區感覺很好，對吧？雖然不是那麼偉大和強健，但它們很健康。因此，我們在西雅圖市場上看到的實際上只是郊區與城市之間的差異。當你考慮即將到來的供應時，它不僅會影響城市，還會影響明年該市場的郊區。

Our next question comes from Haendel St. Juste with Mizuho.

我們的下一個問題來自 Mizuho 的 Haendel St. Juste。

Wanted to go back to the West Coast markets for a bit. Just curious if you could give us a bit more color on what you're seeing in terms of concessions maybe between San Fran, Seattle, parts of L.A. And then at a high level, what are your blended rate growth expectations for the West Coast versus East Coast markets in the back half of the year?

想回到西海岸市場一段時間。只是好奇您能否給我們更多關於您所看到的舊金山、西雅圖、洛杉磯部分地區之間的讓步的信息。然後在高水平上，您對西海岸與西海岸的混合增長率預期是多少下半年東海岸市場如何？

Haendel, this is Michael. So let me just -- I'll start with just the overall kind of concession use in the portfolio. Fairly consistent in the second quarter versus kind of the first quarter. Overall, we're running about 15% of the applications are receiving just about a month. About 80% of all the concessions that are being used are concentrated in the urban centers of both Seattle and San Francisco. In downtown San Francisco, it's about 50% of the applications are receiving about 6 weeks and in downtown Seattle, it's about 1/3 of the applications that are receiving just over a month.

亨德爾，這是邁克爾。那麼，讓我——我將從投資組合中特許使用的整體類型開始。第二季度與第一季度相當一致。總體而言，我們正在運行的大約 15% 的申請僅在一個月左右就收到了。正在使用的所有特許權中，約 80% 集中在西雅圖和舊金山的市中心。在舊金山市中心，大約 50% 的申請會在大約 6 週內收到；在西雅圖市中心，大約 1/3 的申請會在一個月多一點的時間內收到。

In terms of the spreads in the West Coast markets for new lease change, I don't know if I have that, kind of handy. I will tell you that right now, the East Coast markets have been outperforming the West Coast by about 400 basis points. My guess is that spread is going to stay fairly consistent, although you definitely have some movement in L.A. with some of the changes happening with bad debt.

就西海岸市場新租約變更的利差而言，我不知道我是否有這個，有點方便。我會告訴你，目前東海岸市場的表現比西海岸高出約400個基點。我的猜測是，利差將保持相當穩定，儘管洛杉磯肯定會發生一些變化，其中一些變化是由於壞賬而發生的。

That's helpful. And where is the loss to lease in the portfolio today? And where is it highest and where is it lowest?

這很有幫助。今天投資組合中的租賃損失在哪裡？哪裡最高，哪裡最低？

Sure. So right now, the loss to lease is at 3.7% which for this time of the year is actually a little bit stronger than what we have seen historically. And maybe rather than like going by market around loss to lease, I could just kind of cluster them for you and group a few by a range. So like New York and San Diego have the highest loss to lease right now, which has been running about 9%. And then that's followed by like D.C., Orange County, Boston are all very tightly clustered in this like 4.5% to 6% range. And then you go to like the Denver, the San Francisco, Seattle and L.A. Those are all in like the flat to 2% and then I have my expansion markets of Dallas and Austin are the 2 markets right now that are in a gain to lease.

當然。因此，目前租賃損失為 3.7%，實際上每年這個時候的損失比我們歷史上看到的要高一些。也許我可以不喜歡根據租賃損失來判斷市場，而是可以為您將它們聚集起來，並按範圍對其中一些進行分組。因此，紐約和聖地亞哥目前的租賃損失最高，約為 9%。接下來是華盛頓特區、奧蘭治縣、波士頓，都非常緊密地聚集在這個 4.5% 到 6% 的範圍內。然後你去丹佛、舊金山、西雅圖和洛杉磯。這些都在 2% 的水平上，然後我有達拉斯和奧斯汀的擴張市場，這是目前有利於租賃的兩個市場。

I think when you put all of this into the blender, knowing where pricing trend is today, like I said, with that 6% growth from the beginning of the year, sitting with the 3.7 loss to lease, which is above kind of a normal year, it really does put us in a great position not only to finish out the year, but to have a starting point for '24, that's really above a norm.

我想當你把所有這些都放入攪拌機中時，知道今天的價格趨勢在哪裡，就像我說的，從年初開始增長了 6%，租賃損失為 3.7，這高於正常水平今年，它確實使我們處於一個有利的位置，不僅可以結束這一年，而且可以為 24 年奠定一個起點，這確實高於正常水平。

We'll go next to Alexander Goldfarb with Piper Sandler.

我們將與 Piper Sandler 一起前往 Alexander Goldfarb。

Happy 30th anniversary. So 2 questions on -- both actually around acquisitions. So Mark, Sam used to talk about trading sardines and eating sardines. As you guys look at your experience in the -- especially in the urban markets, the bigger assets, do you see those assets in EQR going forward? Do you see them more as trading sardines or eating ones?

30 週年快樂。所以有兩個問題——實際上都是圍繞收購的。所以馬克和薩姆常常談論交易沙丁魚和吃沙丁魚。當你們回顧自己在更大資產方面的經驗時，特別是在城市市場，您認為 EQR 中的這些資產未來會發展嗎？您認為它們更多的是交易沙丁魚還是食用沙丁魚？

Interesting. I love that analogy out for a historical reference point. I mean these -- some of the markets like New York, if you want a presence in Midtown, the assets, by definition, are mostly large and costly, all right? So it's more of a market than a type decision, I would say. I think it's more likely that you'd see us sell a large asset because we just want to lower our market exposure there, not because we're particularly allergic to a large asset in the market, if it's not performed well or if we have an over concentration in a submarket, you'll see us sell it.

有趣的。我喜歡用這個類比作為歷史參考點。我的意思是這些 - 像紐約這樣的一些市場，如果你想在中城開展業務，那麼根據定義，這些資產大多是大型且昂貴的，好嗎？所以我想說，這更多的是市場而不是類型決定。我認為你更有可能看到我們出售一項大型資產，因為我們只是想降低我們在那裡的市場敞口，而不是因為我們對市場上的一項大型資產特別過敏，如果它表現不佳或者我們有如果過度集中在某個子市場，你會看到我們出售它。

So I guess I don't know what to do with that analogy in the sense that larger assets are harder to sell. We generally operate them pretty efficiently. We generally can run capital pretty efficiently to make up for that. But I don't have a sardine-type description for you. It's up to say that I think we'd sell if we don't like the spot, big or small asset.

所以我想我不知道如何處理這個類比，因為更大的資產更難出售。我們通常非常有效地運營它們。我們通常可以非常有效地運行資本來彌補這一點。但我沒有沙丁魚類型的描述給你。可以說，如果我們不喜歡這個現貨，無論大小資產，我認為我們都會出售。

I guess what I'm getting at is given the volatility that we've seen in the urban markets, do you think that it's better for EQR going forward to be more nimble and say, look, we have a base of assets that we like more in the suburbs where it's harder to get in, harder to get out, in the cities where you'll go up to a peak where you have record rents and it's easier to sell and then sort of trade around. That's what I'm trying to get at. If the urban markets are more like trading markets, versus long-term markets. So you're always trying to sort of arbitrage exposure.

我想我的意思是考慮到我們在城市市場看到的波動，您認為 EQR 未來變得更加靈活會更好嗎？說，看，我們擁有我們喜歡的資產基礎更多的是在郊區，那裡更難進入，更難離開；在城市，你會達到租金創紀錄的頂峰，並且更容易出售然後進行交易。這就是我想要達到的目的。如果城市市場更像是交易市場，而不是長期市場。所以你總是試圖進行套利。

I guess I don't agree with that. I'd start off by saying volatility in all sorts of assets and you're about to see volatility in the Sunbelt markets with these kind of prices. The fact that they're smaller assets just means that the prices just declined. I mean the way to protect against volatility in the market is to be in a position with your balance sheet and your strategy where you're not a compelled seller.

我想我不同意這一點。我首先要說的是各種資產的波動性，您將看到陽光地帶市場的此類價格波動。事實上，它們的資產規模較小，僅意味著價格剛剛下降。我的意思是，防範市場波動的方法是在你的資產負債表和策略中保持一個位置，讓你不成為被迫的賣家。

So for us, volatility can mean opportunity, right? If prices go down enough, as I mentioned in my remarks in -- even in San Francisco, we'd be a buyer. So I just want to make that clear. For us, volatility is opportunity, not always a negative and the way we protect ourselves is by having a broader platform. So I think with the lesson we learned over the last 10, 15 years is a broader platform, means you can act more quickly in more markets and take advantage of those volatile moments where Austin, Texas trades cheap to long-term value and you're a buyer there or New York trades cheap and you're a buyer there.

所以對我們來說，波動可能意味著機會，對嗎？如果價格下降得足夠多，正如我在演講中提到的那樣，即使在舊金山，我們也會成為買家。所以我只是想澄清這一點。對我們來說，波動是機會，但並不總是負面的，我們保護自己的方式是擁有更廣闊的平台。因此，我認為我們在過去 10、15 年中吸取的教訓是一個更廣泛的平台，意味著您可以在更多市場中更快地採取行動，並利用德克薩斯州奧斯汀以低廉價格進行長期價值交易的波動時刻，並且您可以如果您是那裡的買家，或者紐約的交易價格便宜，那麼您就是那裡的買家。

So I think as you see us balance the platform out, you're going to see us be more even more opportunistic. And I wouldn't shy away from buying a large asset. I think you just got to go with your eyes wide open about those assets being harder to sell. Is there something you'd add, Alex?

所以我認為，當你看到我們平衡平台時，你會看到我們變得更加機會主義。我不會迴避購買大型資產。我認為你必須睜大眼睛看到這些資產更難出售。亞歷克斯，你還有什麼要補充的嗎？

Yes, Alex, this is Alex. I would just add that take Manhattan or actually Boston and D.C. really any of our urban markets to reproduce those portfolios will be virtually impossible. I mean Manhattan, I don't know how you'd find 25 really well-located assets in any amount of time. So we've got an unusual opportunity that we're taking advantage of today and you're seeing in Manhattan. It's the best performing market in the country. And you just couldn't decide all of a sudden you wanted to reproduce that.

是的，亞歷克斯，這是亞歷克斯。我想補充一點，以曼哈頓或波士頓和華盛頓特區為例，我們的任何城市市場複製這些投資組合幾乎是不可能的。我指的是曼哈頓，我不知道你如何在任何時間內找到 25 個地理位置優越的資產。因此，我們今天正在利用一個不尋常的機會，正如您在曼哈頓看到的那樣。這是該國表現最好的市場。你只是無法突然決定要復制它。

Okay. And then the second question is, given it's a competitive market for transactions, we saw one of your peers do 2 large transactions that are basically neutral initially. Are there ways for you guys to enhance your initial yields, be it like buying it in the preferred or the [mezz] positions or junior positions? Or are there other ways that you can enhance your yield so that when you do close on a deal, it's more accretive than often, it seems like in REIT land, a transaction ends up being neutral year 1, and it's not until year 2 or 3 that we start to see the benefits?

好的。第二個問題是，鑑於這是一個競爭激烈的交易市場，我們看到您的一位同行做了兩筆大額交易，最初基本上是中性的。你們有什麼方法可以提高您的初始收益率，無論是在優先位置、[中間]位置還是初級位置購買？或者是否有其他方法可以提高收益，以便當您完成交易時，它比平常更具增值性，似乎在房地產投資信託基金土地上，交易最終在第一年是中性的，直到第二年或3 我們開始看到好處了嗎？

Yes. I'm going to split this up a little bit for the team to answer. I think I want to start by Alex talk about cap rates certainly matters a ton, but we also think a lot about replacement costs. And I'm going to ask Michael or Bob to just talk about platform scaling, margin expansion at EQR, those kinds of things, Alex, that can affect year 2 yields. Alex?

是的。我將把這個問題分開一些，讓團隊來回答。我想我想從亞歷克斯開始談論資本化率當然很重要，但我們也對重置成本進行了很多思考。我將請邁克爾或鮑勃談談平台擴展、EQR 的利潤擴張以及諸如此類的事情，亞歷克斯，這些可能會影響第二年的收益率。亞歷克斯？

Yes. So this is Alex. What we're really focused is being a very targeted buyer right now. And what we're targeting are opportunities, where as Mark says, there's a discount to replacement cost, but also a limited supply pipeline. So that typically has been out in the suburbs and those kinds of base. So if you're getting a good basis like that, that's the best thing for your investment in the long run rather than some kind of [mezz] piece that might be a little bit of financial engineering, getting it at a good basis is just irreplaceable.

是的。這就是亞歷克斯。我們現在真正關注的是成為一個非常有針對性的買家。我們的目標是機會，正如馬克所說，重置成本有折扣，但供應渠道也有限。所以這通常發生在郊區和那些基地。因此，如果你獲得了這樣的良好基礎，從長遠來看，這對你的投資來說是最好的事情，而不是某種可能有點金融工程的[夾層]部分，獲得良好的基礎只是不可替代的。

Yes. And I think from the operator standpoint, I think we have worked really hard over the last couple of years to build a platform that is highly scalable. So when we go into these markets, we're looking really at the ability to kind of leverage staff across properties, put them onto our platform, kind of put them into our pricing system. And it's clearly accretive from an operating margin for us when we're looking at underwriting these deals.

是的。我認為從運營商的角度來看，我認為我們在過去幾年中非常努力地構建了一個高度可擴展的平台。因此，當我們進入這些市場時，我們真正關注的是如何利用不同酒店的員工，將他們放到我們的平台上，將他們放入我們的定價系統中。當我們考慮承銷這些交易時，這顯然會增加我們的營業利潤。

Right now, when we look across these markets, any of the acquisitions we're looking at, we're saying even in our existing markets, what benefits do we get by bringing this into that portfolio, whether that's at a submarket level or the market as a whole?

現在，當我們縱觀這些市場時，我們正在考慮的任何收購，我們都會說，即使在我們現有的市場中，通過將其納入該投資組合，我們可以獲得什麼好處，無論是在子市場層面還是在整個市場？

Yes. And I just think you've asked some great questions, Alex. I mean we're in a really good position where we've got teams in the markets, we can underwrite quickly, we can take over management quickly, but we're not overexposed to the supply. And there's going to be a lot that's going to be sold in the Sunbelt markets. And I think you should think not just about us selling some of these legacy urban assets and affecting, I'll call it, the numerator, but us making the company net bigger likely by using some of our debt capacity that Bob and his team have created so capably over the last few years to go out there and be a net buyer and I think what's more important to the management team and the Board is that per pound replacement cost discount.

是的。我只是認為你問了一些很好的問題，亞歷克斯。我的意思是，我們處於非常有利的位置，我們在市場上有團隊，我們可以快速承保，我們可以快速接管管理，但我們並沒有過度暴露於供應。將會有很多產品在陽光地帶市場上出售。我認為你不應該僅僅考慮我們出售一些遺留的城市資產並影響分子，我稱之為分子，而是我們通過利用鮑勃和他的團隊擁有的一些債務能力來使公司淨額更大在過去的幾年裡，我們創造瞭如此強大的能力，能夠走出去並成為淨買家，我認為對管理團隊和董事會來說更重要的是每磅重置成本折扣。

I think we're looking for the deals to make sense on an initial cap rate basis as well. But I mean the most important thing, most important signal to us historically has been buying at a meaningful discount to replication cost. And in an environment where construction costs are high and they might be flat for a year or so, but they're likely not going to decline in our opinion much, you can get a discount to basis, you got a little moat around your asset. I like everything about that. So I think that's what you'll hear us talk about if we're fortunate to see some assets out there to buy in these expansion markets and in the suburbs of our existing markets.

我認為我們正在尋找在初始資本化率基礎上也有意義的交易。但我的意思是，歷史上對我們來說最重要的事情、最重要的信號是以復製成本的有意義的折扣購買。在建築成本很高的環境中，它們可能會在一年左右的時間內持平，但我們認為它們可能不會下降太多，你可以獲得基礎折扣，你的資產周圍有一點護城河。我喜歡這方面的一切。因此，我認為，如果我們有幸在這些擴張市場和現有市場的郊區看到一些資產可供購買，那麼您會聽到我們談論的內容。

We'll go next to Michael Goldsmith with UBS.

接下來我們將討論瑞銀集團的邁克爾·戈德史密斯。

My first question is on bad debt. Can you provide some context in terms of what's included or implied that happens to bad debt in the back half of the year in your updated guidance?

我的第一個問題是關於壞賬。您能否提供一些背景信息，說明最新指南中包含或暗示的下半年壞賬情況？

Yes. So good question, Michael, it's Bob. So in the back half of the year, we will actually finally switch to bad debt, helping with a growth rate by about 30 basis points. And the reason is because we continue to see that sequential improvement of bad debt, and we'll cross over the difficult comparable period that relates to the rental relief payments we had in the prior year.

是的。問得好，邁克爾，我是鮑勃。因此，在今年下半年，我們實際上最終將轉向壞賬，從而幫助增長率提高約 30 個基點。原因是我們繼續看到壞賬的連續改善，並且我們將跨越與上一年的租金減免付款相關的困難可比時期。

That accretion or that benefit to total revenue growth is likely not going to occur until the fourth quarter because in the third quarter of 2022, you still had elevated rental relief but we think we'll cross over there. We think at least by the end of the year, when you look at the full year basis, we'll end the year around call it, 125, 130 basis points as a percentage of total revenue and bad debt, which is still elevated relative to the historical norm of 50 basis points and leave the opportunity for more contribution to growth as you go into 2024.

這種增加或對總收入增長的好處可能要到第四季度才會出現，因為在 2022 年第三季度，租金減免仍然增加，但我們認為我們會跨越那裡。我們認為至少到今年年底，當你看看全年的基礎時，我們將在年底將其稱為總收入和壞賬的百分比為 125、130 個基點，相對而言仍然較高。 50 個基點的歷史常態，並在進入 2024 年時為增長做出更多貢獻。

Got it. And my second question is more of a strategic question. Arguably, you have one of, if not the best positioned portfolios for the market right now, given the strength in coastal, urban areas and then we consistently are being told that you're looking to have a more balanced portfolio between urban and suburban, coastal and Sunbelt. So can you just talk a little bit about like how should investors reconcile kind of the strength of the portfolio now to kind of the overall strategy of diversifying away from what's working right now?

知道了。我的第二個問題更多的是一個戰略問題。可以說，考慮到沿海、城市地區的實力，即使不是目前市場上定位最好的投資組合，你也擁有其中之一，然後我們一直被告知，你希望在城市和郊區之間擁有更平衡的投資組合，沿海和陽光地帶。那麼，您能否談談投資者應該如何協調目前投資組合的實力與目前有效的多元化總體策略？

Yes. Great. Great question, very fair. I think you're going to see the baton kind of path. So I think for a few years, these Sunbelt markets are going to be pretty stressed. And I think a lot of the owners of these assets aren't long-term owners, they're developers with [impatient] capital, expensive development debt. And we can buy those properties again for a good basis as we just discussed and add them to the portfolio. I think our kind of resident is increasingly in some of the Sunbelt markets. But yet the coastal markets have real supply advantages that you're seeing right now. So creating a real balanced portfolio for our investors, I think for the next year or so, they're going to benefit from just better coastal dynamics on the supply and demand side.

是的。偉大的。很好的問題，非常公平。我想你會看到接力棒式的道路。因此，我認為未來幾年，這些陽光地帶市場將會承受相當大的壓力。我認為這些資產的許多所有者都不是長期所有者，他們是擁有[不耐煩]資本和昂貴的開發債務的開發商。我們可以再次購買這些房產，為我們剛才討論的良好基礎並將它們添加到投資組合中。我認為我們這種居民越來越多地居住在一些陽光地帶市場。但沿海市場確實具有您現在所看到的供應優勢。因此，為我們的投資者創建一個真正平衡的投資組合，我認為在未來一年左右的時間裡，他們將受益於供給和需求方面更好的沿海動態。

I think after a while, those things will even out. And I think they have a portfolio that year in and year out outperforms not just in certain periods, but year in and year out. It just requires more balance between urban, suburban and coastal and Sunbelt, and we're really balancing the demand and supply risks and opportunities. We're thinking a lot about regulatory risk. And we're thinking a bunch about resilience. The cost, for example, of insurance in Florida, the cost of casualty, repairs and things like that are getting more significant.

我想，過一段時間，這些事情就會平息下來。我認為他們的投資組合年復一年地表現出色，不僅在某些時期，而且年復一年。它只需要城市、郊區、沿海和陽光地帶之間更多的平衡，我們真正平衡了需求和供應的風險和機遇。我們對監管風險進行了很多思考。我們正在思考很多關於彈性的問題。例如，佛羅里達州的保險費用、傷亡費用、維修費用等都變得越來越重要。

So I think as we talk to our investors, and I think this has been well received and the instruction we've received from the Board is to again, try and create this portfolio that's a little more balanced as to opportunities and risks. And I think what our investors will get are hopefully gleaning numbers for the next, I don't know how many quarters, 18 months to 24 months. And then hopefully, at some point, we'll start to see supply abate and these other new markets, and we'll be there to take advantage of that, having purchased at an attractive basis. So in my hopes and dreams, that's how it would play out.

因此，我認為，當我們與投資者交談時，我認為這一點受到了好評，我們從董事會收到的指示是再次嘗試創建這個在機會和風險方面更加平衡的投資組合。我認為我們的投資者將有望收集到接下來的數據，我不知道有多少個季度，18 個月到 24 個月。然後希望，在某個時候，我們將開始看到供應減少和其他新市場，我們將在那裡利用這一點，以有吸引力的基礎進行購買。所以在我的希望和夢想中，事情就會這樣發展。

Our last question comes from the line of Adam Kramer with Morgan Stanley.

我們的最後一個問題來自亞當·克萊默 (Adam Kramer) 與摩根士丹利 (Morgan Stanley) 的對話。

I think you've done a really good job of kind of presenting pricing trends on a kind of a seasonal or sequential basis historically. Thinking about Slide 24 in your most recent deck, for example. Just wondering, thinking about kind of the late summer months and into the fall, maybe just walk us through your assumptions for kind of growth relative to the normal seasonal pattern.

我認為您在按季節或歷史順序呈現定價趨勢方面做得非常好。例如，考慮一下您最近的幻燈片中的第 24 張幻燈片。只是想知道，考慮一下夏末和秋季，也許只是讓我們了解一下您對相對於正常季節性模式的增長的假設。

Adam, this is Michael. So I think what we've said is we expected this year to follow normal seasonal trends, both on a rent seasonality, a demand seasonality and right now -- and we said it was going to be a little bit muted. We didn't expect rents to peak quite as high as what they would normally peak.

亞當，這是邁克爾。因此，我認為我們所說的是，我們預計今年將遵循正常的季節性趨勢，無論是租金季節性、需求季節性還是現在——而且我們說它會有點平靜。我們沒想到租金會達到正常峰值那麼高。

Right now, we're doing kind of right where we thought we would be, turning the corner, heading into August. We would expect, just given the application volume and the foot traffic we're seeing that we've got several weeks left of what I would say is the peak leasing season where we'll continue to inch up a little bit of rate and then as you turn the corner and you walk your way in through September, we do expect that rates will start to moderate a little bit.

現在，我們正在做我們認為會做的事情，轉危為安，進入八月。我們預計，只要考慮到申請量和客流量，我們所看到的租賃旺季還剩幾週時間，我們將繼續小幅提高利率，然後當您轉過拐角並走進九月時，我們確實預計利率將開始略有下降。

We have so many years of data. We're looking at all of these stats, and we haven't really seen anything that tells us not to expect that normal kind of softening that occurs in the late third quarter and into the fourth quarter, both from the pricing trend standpoint, little bit on the occupancy standpoint. But right now, we feel pretty good because of the Southern California situation that occupancy will continue to improve and be stable for us for the year.

我們有這麼多年的數據。我們正在研究所有這些統計數據，但我們並沒有真正看到任何東西告訴我們不要期望第三季度末和第四季度會出現正常的疲軟，無論是從定價趨勢的角度來看，都很少。從入住的角度來看。但目前，由於南加州的情況，我們感覺相當不錯，今年的入住率將繼續改善並保持穩定。

So I just think you just got to look through all of those stats and just put yourself into a bell curve and allow both rent seasonality and demand seasonality to kind of tail off in the third -- late third quarter and fourth quarter. That's what we're modeling. We've seen years clearly where we've been able to defy that and hold the line with rate or have good demand kind of going all the way through the fourth quarter. I just don't have any insight right now to say that this is going to be the year that does that.

因此，我認為您只需查看所有這些統計數據，然後將自己置於鍾形曲線中，並允許租金季節性和需求季節性在第三季度末和第四季度逐漸減弱。這就是我們正在建模的。多年來我們已經清楚地看到，我們能夠克服這種情況並保持利率不變，或者在第四季度一直保持良好的需求。我只是現在沒有任何見解可以說今年會做到這一點。

That's super helpful. I really appreciate that color. And then I guess it's frankly kind of a similar question. But thinking about back earlier in the year, I think you guys put out a kind of 2.5% market rent growth forecast for the full year. Wondering if at this point in the year, kind of knowing what you know, half year results in so far, would you make any kind of changes to that number? Or is that kind of still how you think about for the full year on average, 2.5% market rate growth?

這非常有幫助。我真的很欣賞這種顏色。然後我想坦率地說這是一個類似的問題。但回想今年早些時候，我認為你們提出了全年 2.5% 的市場租金增長預測。想知道在今年的這個時候，知道你所知道的，到目前為止，半年的結果，你會對這個數字做出任何改變嗎？或者您仍然是這樣看待全年平均 2.5% 的市場增長率嗎？

So Adam, this is Michael again. No, I think we're like -- we're running right at it. Like we're right on top of these numbers. I think that market rate growth you layer on top of where our embedded growth was in the beginning of the year, our ability to capture the loss to lease and then you had that intra-period growth. You put all of that stuff into the blender together and it was pointing us to this like 4% blended rate growth for the year. And right now, that's like exactly where we're headed. So I wouldn't change that number or outlook at all.

亞當，這又是邁克爾。不，我認為我們正在努力做到這一點。就像我們就在這些數字之上。我認為市場利率增長是在我們年初的嵌入增長、我們捕捉租賃損失的能力之上的，然後你就得到了期內的增長。你把所有這些東西一起放入攪拌機中，它向我們指出今年的混合增長率約為 4%。現在，這正是我們前進的方向。所以我根本不會改變這個數字或前景。

This does conclude today's question-and-answer session. I would like to turn the call back over to Mark Parrell. Please go ahead.

今天的問答環節到此結束。我想把電話轉回給馬克·帕雷爾。請繼續。

Thanks, Ruth. Thank you all for your time and interest in Equity Residential today. Enjoy the rest of your summer, and we look forward to seeing many of you out on the fall conference circuit. Thank you.

謝謝，露絲。感謝大家今天對股權住宅的關注和關注。享受剩下的夏天，我們期待在秋季巡迴會議上見到你們中的許多人。謝謝。

This does conclude today's conference call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.

今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連接。