住宅地產 (EQR) 2024 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good day, and welcome to the Equity Residential 1Q 2024 Earnings Conference Call and Webcast. Today's conference is being recorded.

美好的一天，歡迎參加 2024 年第一季股權住宅收益電話會議和網路廣播。今天的會議正在錄製中。

At this time, I'd like to turn the conference over to Marty McKenna. Please go ahead.

這次，我想把會議交給馬蒂·麥肯納。請繼續。

Good morning, and thanks for joining us to discuss Equity Residential's first quarter 2024 results.

早安，感謝您與我們討論 Equity Residential 2024 年第一季的業績。

Our featured speakers today are Mark Parrell, our President and CEO; and Michael Manelis, our Chief Operating Officer. Alex Brackenridge, our Chief Investment Officer; and Bob Garechana, our Chief Financial Officer, are here with us as well for the Q&A. Our earnings release is posted in the Investors section of equityapartments.com.

今天我們的演講嘉賓是我們的總裁兼執行長馬克‧帕雷爾 (Mark Parrell)；和我們的營運長 Michael Manelis。 Alex Brackenridge，我們的首席投資長；我們的財務長 Bob Garechana 也出席了問答環節。我們的收益發佈發佈在equityapartments.com 的投資者部分。

Please be advised that certain matters discussed during this conference call may constitute forward-looking statements within the meaning of the federal securities laws. These forward-looking statements are subject to certain economic risks and uncertainties. The company assumes no obligation to update or supplement these statements that become untrue because of subsequent events.

請注意，本次電話會議中討論的某些事項可能構成聯邦證券法含義內的前瞻性陳述。這些前瞻性陳述受到某些經濟風險和不確定性的影響。本公司不承擔更新或補充因後續事件而變得不真實的這些陳述的義務。

Now I will turn the call over to Mark Parrell.

現在我將把電話轉給馬克·帕雷爾。

Thank you, Marty. Good morning, and thank you all for joining us today to discuss our first quarter 2024 results and outlook for the year.

謝謝你，馬蒂。早安，感謝大家今天加入我們討論我們 2024 年第一季的業績和今年的展望。

I will start us off, then Michael Manelis, our COO, will speak to our operating performance and how we see 2024 operations playing out. And then we will take your questions.

我將首先開始，然後我們的營運長 Michael Manelis 將談論我們的營運績效以及我們對 2024 年營運的看法。然後我們將回答您的問題。

We are pleased with our first quarter performance, which was ahead of January expectations and reflects the strong demand for the lifestyle our well-located apartment properties provide as well as little new competitive supply across most of our established markets. Our same-store revenues increased 4.1% in the quarter, and our same-store expenses rose only 1.3%, which led to same-store NOI growth of 5.5% and an increase in our NFFO per share of 6.9%.

我們對第一季的業績感到滿意，這超出了 1 月份的預期，反映出對我們位置優越的公寓物業提供的生活方式的強勁需求，以及我們大多數成熟市場幾乎沒有新的競爭性供應。本季我們的同店營收成長了 4.1%，而同店支出僅成長了 1.3%，這導致同店 NOI 成長 5.5%，每股 NFFO 成長 6.9%。

So overall, a very solid start to the year across all categories, with the company well positioned to capture increasing seasonal demand as we head into our prime leasing season. As is our practice, we have not revised our operating or FFO guidance, and we'll make adjustments as we get deeper into our primary leasing season.

因此，總體而言，今年所有類別都有一個非常良好的開局，隨著我們進入黃金租賃季節，該公司已做好充分準備來抓住不斷增長的季節性需求。按照我們的慣例，我們沒有修改我們的營運或 FFO 指導，隨著我們進入主要租賃季節，我們將做出調整。

Digging under the hood a bit, the durability of the employment picture for our target affluent renter demographic is a continuing bright spot in our business as is the cost of owned housing. Unemployment for the college educated, a very sizable percentage of our residents, remains at around 2%, considerably lower than the overall average, supporting demand. This demographic, which is well employed in the growth engines of our economy, including technology, financial services and other professional and business services, continues to grow in both our established and expansion markets.

深入挖掘一下，我們的目標富裕租戶群體的就業前景的持久性是我們業務中持續的亮點，自有住房的成本也是如此。受過大學教育的居民在居民中所佔比例相當大，其失業率維持在 2% 左右，遠低於整體平均水平，支撐了需求。這一人口在我們經濟的成長引擎中得到了充分利用，包括技術、金融服務和其他專業和商業服務，在我們的成熟市場和擴張市場中持續成長。

We also see a little competition from owned housing as the high cost of homes, combined with elevated financing costs and rapidly rising insurance, real estate tax and maintenance costs combine to make rental housing a very attractive option for many people. Social factors that we've discussed on prior calls like smaller households and delayed marriage and childbearing add to the attractiveness of rental housing.

我們也看到，自有住房存在一些競爭，因為住房成本高昂，加上融資成本上升，保險、房地產稅和維護成本迅速上升，使得租賃住房對許多人來說成為非常有吸引力的選擇。我們在先前的電話會議中討論過的社會因素，如家庭規模較小、晚婚晚育等，增加了出租房屋的吸引力。

In the quarter just ended, the percentage of our residents leaving us to buy homes was 7.8%, a continuation of all-time lows. Strong demand and high single-family housing costs are consistent conditions across both our coastal established markets that represent 95% of our company's NOI and our new expansion markets of Dallas-Fort Worth, Atlanta, Denver and Austin, that collectively represent 5% of our NOI.

在剛結束的季度，我們的居民離開我們買房的比例為 7.8%，延續了歷史低點。強勁的需求和高昂的單戶住房成本是我們沿海成熟市場（占我們公司NOI 的95％）和達拉斯-沃斯堡、亞特蘭大、丹佛和奧斯汀（總共占我們公司NOI 的5％）的新擴張市場的一致條件。

But on the apartment supply side, we see 2 very different pictures playing out in our established coastal markets versus our expansion markets. With the exception of Seattle and Central D.C. in our established coastal markets, we see the terrific demand I just mentioned being met with generally little new supply, leading to solid rent growth. Across our 4 expansion markets, we see robust demand as well, but it is being met by an overwhelming wave of new supply, leading to declining rent levels, high concessions and occupancy pressure. We expect this pressure to accelerate as units continue to deliver in these oversupplied markets, especially once the prime leasing season concludes and demand seasonally declines.

但在公寓供應方面，我們看到成熟的沿海市場與擴張市場的情況截然不同。除了我們已建立的沿海市場中的西雅圖和中央特區之外，我們看到我剛才提到的巨大需求通常很少有新的供應來滿足，從而導致租金穩健增長。在我們的 4 個擴張市場中，我們也看到了強勁的需求，但需求卻受到了壓倒性的新供應浪潮的滿足，導致租金水平下降、高額優惠和入住壓力。我們預計，隨著這些供過於求的市場中單位繼續交付，尤其是在主要租賃季節結束且需求季節性下降之後，這種壓力將會加劇。

Switching to expenses, Michael is going to go over all that with you in a moment. But I wanted to take a second to thank our teams across the company for their amazing work on expense management. We are very pleased to have produced a sector-leading 3.1% average growth rate of same-store expenses over the last 5 years. Our teams have embraced innovation and a customer service mindset and are not afraid of change, and it shows in these numbers. Well done, team.

轉到費用方面，邁克爾稍後將與您討論所有這些內容。但我想花一點時間感謝我們整個公司的團隊在費用管理方面所做的出色工作。我們很高興在過去 5 年裡實現了行業領先的同店支出平均成長率 3.1%。我們的團隊擁抱創新和客戶服務理念，並且不害怕變化，這一點在這些數字中得到了體現。幹得好，團隊。

On the investment side, we are seeing properties that we would be interested in acquiring, well-located newer properties in our expansion markets in the suburbs of Seattle and Boston trade at high prices and in very low volume compared to pre-pandemic levels. Investment sales activity in the first quarter was over 60% below average pre-pandemic levels. Estimates from my colleagues who attended the recent ULI conference indicate that there is over $200 billion of dry powder looking to invest in North American real estate, with a significant portion focused on apartments. Recent data points from the pending AIRC transaction and apartment portfolio and one-off deals are similarly supportive of much higher values than the public market is currently suggesting.

在投資方面，我們看到我們有興趣收購的房產，在西雅圖和波士頓郊區的擴張市場中，位置優越的新房產的交易價格很高，但與大流行前的水平相比，成交量卻非常低。第一季的投資銷售活動比疫情前的平均低 60% 以上。參加最近 ULI 會議的同事估計，有超過 2000 億美元的資金尋求投資北美房地產，其中很大一部分集中在公寓。即將進行的 AIRC 交易和公寓投資組合以及一次性交易的最新數據點同樣支持遠高於公開市場當前建議的價值。

While this is a huge positive signal about the underlying value of our company, it has slowed our portfolio rebalancing efforts. And while pricing in most of the apartment transaction market is strong, buyer interest is not yet fully evident for some of the large urban West Coast assets that we want to dispose of as part of our strategic rebalancing. We expect that to change as these submarkets continue to show improved operations and better quality of life conditions.

雖然這是關於我們公司潛在價值的巨大正面訊號，但它減緩了我們投資組合再平衡的努力。儘管大部分公寓交易市場的定價都很強勁，但買家對我們希望在戰略再平衡過程中出售的一些大型西海岸城市資產的興趣尚未完全明顯。我們預計，隨著這些子市場的營運持續改善和生活品質改善，這種情況將會改變。

In the meantime, with the lack of actionable acquisition opportunities, we saw value in our own stock. So we continue to strategically deploy disposition proceeds from the sale of older inferior properties in our portfolio into repurchases of our stock. In the first quarter, we repurchased approximately $38.5 million of our own common shares at a weighted average share price of about $59 per share. Since we began this activity in the fourth quarter of 2023, we have repurchased approximately $87.5 million of our shares in what we see as an attractive valuation level of a bit below $58 per share. We are using the remaining disposition dollars to drive down our already low leverage, which will create more internal debt dry powder for when opportunities do emerge. We are going to continue to be disciplined in our transaction activities with a focus on growing cash flow over the long term.

同時，由於缺乏可行的收購機會，我們看到了自己股票的價值。因此，我們繼續策略性地將出售投資組合中較舊的劣質房產的處置收益用於回購我們的股票。第一季度，我們以每股約 59 美元的加權平均股價回購了約 3,850 萬美元的普通股。自 2023 年第四季開始這項活動以來，我們已經回購了約 8,750 萬美元的股票，我們認為估值水準略低於每股 58 美元，具有吸引力。我們正在利用剩餘的處置資金來降低我們已經很低的槓桿率，這將為機會確實出現時創造更多的內債乾粉。我們將繼續在交易活動中遵守紀律，並專注於長期現金流的成長。

With regard to external growth, we are on track to deliver 6 newly completed joint venture developments in 2024. These 6 properties, 3 located in Dallas-Fort Worth, 2 located in Denver and 1 located in suburban New York, will be delivered at a weighted average stabilized yield north of 6% and will contribute meaningfully to our normalized FFO starting in 2025 given their completion and lease-up timing. The 3 Dallas-Fort Worth developments are the first completed projects to come out of our partnership with Toll Brothers. With some of the other equity residential executives, I recently visited all 6 of these development projects, and I'm inspired by the enthusiasm on display from our lease-up teams and excited about adding these high-quality assets to our portfolio.

在外部成長方面，我們預計在 2024 年交付 6 個新竣工的合資開發項目。收益率超過6%，鑑於其竣工和租賃時間，將為我們從2025 年開始的標準化FFO 做出有意義的貢獻。達拉斯-沃斯堡的 3 個開發項目是我們與 Toll Brothers 合作完成的首批竣工項目。最近，我與其他一些股權住宅高管參觀了所有 6 個開發項目，我們的租賃團隊表現出的熱情令我深受鼓舞，並對將這些優質資產添加到我們的投資組合中感到興奮。

Before I turn it over to Michael, I wanted to make a quick comment on the new housing laws that were passed over the weekend in New York, though I know we are still digesting the law and its implications. The law allows for renewal increases of CPI plus 5% up to 10%, and provides for vacancy decontrol on the types of units we generally own in New York, which allows rents to move to market when a new resident moves in, and that's similar to the rent laws that were passed a few years ago in California.

在將其交給邁克爾之前，我想對紐約週末通過的新住房法進行快速評論，儘管我知道我們仍在消化該法律及其影響。該法律允許 CPI 續訂加 5% 至 10%，並規定對我們在紐約通常擁有的單元類型進行空置解除控制，這允許在新居民搬入時將租金推向市場，這與此類似幾年前在加州通過的租金法。

Overall, new price controls on an already undersupplied good, in this case, rental housing, is not an effective way to attract private capital to help solve the housing supply problem in New York State. However, there are also tax incentives in the new law for new rental construction subject to a new higher wage scale required for labor on larger buildings as well as permanent affordability rules. There are also some language on zoning reforms and some rules that aim to make office-to-residential conversions easier.

總體而言，對本已供應不足的商品（本例中為租賃住房）實施新的價格管制，並不是吸引私人資本幫助解決紐約州住房供應問題的有效方法。然而，新法也對新建租賃建築提供稅收優惠，但須遵守大型建築勞動力所需的新的更高工資標準以及永久的負擔能力規則。還有一些關於分區改革的措辭和一些旨在使辦公室向住宅轉換更容易的規則。

While the rent control provisions are not helpful, we commend the governor and the legislature for focusing on a supply-based solution similar to recent legislation passed in such politically disparate states as Florida and California. We think focusing on supply, not heavy-handed regulation, has been recognized on both sides of the aisle as the long-term solution. While the new law adds to the complexity of operating in New York, a good portion of our portfolio in New York City is exempt either due to being built during or after 2009 or meeting the luxury exemption thresholds. We'll be happy to discuss all this further in Q&A.

雖然租金管制條款沒有幫助，但我們讚揚州長和立法機構專注於基於供應的解決方案，類似於佛羅裡達州和加利福尼亞州等政治不同的州最近通過的立法。我們認為，兩黨都認為關注供應而不是嚴厲監管是長期解決方案。雖然新法律增加了在紐約運營的複雜性，但我們在紐約市的投資組合中有很大一部分是豁免的，因為要么是在 2009 年期間或之後建造的，要么是達到了奢侈品豁免門檻。我們很樂意在問答中進一步討論這一切。

And with that, I'll turn the call over to Michael Manelis.

接下來，我會將電話轉給麥可·馬內利斯。

Thanks, Mark, and thanks to everyone for joining us today.

謝謝馬克，也謝謝大家今天加入我們。

This morning, I will review our first quarter 2024 operating performance and our positioning as we start the leasing season.

今天早上，我將回顧我們 2024 年第一季的營運表現以及在租賃季節開始時的定位。

We're off to a very good start thus far. As Mark mentioned, demand remains good across all of our markets, supported by a continuing solid job market and high employment in our affluent renter target demographic. One of the real highlights of the quarter was our turnover, which is the lowest we have ever seen. Our focus on customer satisfaction, harnessing data and leveraging our centralized renewal team to drive results is definitely having an impact here.

到目前為止，我們已經有了一個很好的開始。正如馬克所提到的，在持續穩定的就業市場和富裕租戶目標人群的高就業率的支持下，我們所有市場的需求仍然良好。本季真正的亮點之一是我們的營業額，這是我們所見過的最低水平。我們對客戶滿意度的關注、利用數據並利用我們的集中更新團隊來推動結果肯定會產生影響。

In the first quarter, we renewed more than 61% of our residents, which is one of the highest percentages that we have seen. A special shout-out to New York, Boston and Seattle, who set their own high marks and greatly contributed to this result.

第一季度，我們為超過 61% 的居民進行了續約，這是我們所見過的最高比例之一。特別要感謝紐約、波士頓和西雅圖，他們創下了自己的高分，並為這一結果做出了巨大貢獻。

Our first quarter same-store revenue growth exceeded our original expectations, including very good performance in San Francisco and Seattle, which I will discuss in a moment. This positions us very well for the year, but we acknowledge that this is just the beginning of a critical primary leasing season. Our efforts to build occupancy in the fourth quarter of 2023, coupled with continued strong demand and high resident retention, have resulted in both slightly above average rent growth since the beginning of the year and a 50-basis point quarterly sequential gain in physical occupancy. At 96.5% occupied this month, which is one of our highest reported occupancies in April, we have a lot of confidence that we will be able to continue to grow rates through the leasing season. The high percentage of residents renewing that I previously mentioned is also a big factor in this strength.

我們第一季的同店營收成長超出了我們最初的預期，包括舊金山和西雅圖的表現非常好，我稍後會討論這一點。這使我們今年處於非常有利的位置，但我們承認這只是關鍵的主要租賃季節的開始。我們努力在 2023 年第四季提高入住率，加上持續強勁的需求和較高的居民保留率，導致年初以來的租金增長略高於平均水平，實體入住率季度環比增長 50 個基點。本月入住率達到 96.5%，這是我們報告的 4 月份入住率最高的月份之一，我們非常有信心能夠在整個租賃季節繼續提高入住率。我之前提到的居民續約比例高也是這項優勢的重要因素。

In terms of market same-store revenue growth, the East Coast markets in Southern California are producing leading growth, as we expected, with San Francisco, Seattle and the expansion markets following in that order. As we think about these markets' performance relative to our expectations, New York and Washington, D.C. are running ahead of expectations, while Boston and Southern California and the expansion markets are in line. San Francisco and Seattle are also running ahead, but remember, these markets have been historically volatile. So we remain cautiously optimistic that we will hold on to the gains in these markets for the remainder of the year.

就市場同店收入成長而言，正如我們預期的那樣，南加州東海岸市場的成長領先，舊金山、西雅圖和擴張市場緊隨其後。當我們考慮這些市場相對於我們預期的表現時，紐約和華盛頓特區的表現超出了預期，而波士頓和南加州以及擴張市場則與預期一致。舊金山和西雅圖也領先，但請記住，這些市場在歷史上一直不穩定。因此，我們仍然謹慎樂觀，認為我們將在今年剩餘時間內維持這些市場的收益。

Now a little more color on the individual markets before closing out with expenses and commentary in other income and initiatives. Starting in Boston, year-to-date revenue performance is in line with the expectations. City of Boston is currently 97% occupied and we have very little competitive supply to deal with. Concession use is little to none in this market. And overall, we continue to expect Boston to deliver some of the best full year revenue growth in the portfolio.

在結束其他收入和計劃的支出和評論之前，現在對各個市場進行更多的介紹。從波士頓開始，年初至今的收入表現符合預期。波士頓市目前 97% 已被佔用，我們幾乎沒有什麼有競爭力的供應需要處理。在這個市場上，特許權的使用很少甚至沒有。總體而言，我們繼續預計波士頓將實現投資組合中最好的全年收入成長。

As I mentioned, New York is performing well, with both strong demand and pricing power. The market is over 97% occupied and has very little competitive new supply. So far, we seem to have moved past the rent fatigue we saw in the market in late 2023 and expect good things from this market in '24.

正如我所提到的，紐約表現良好，需求強勁，定價能力也很強。市場佔有率超過97%，幾乎沒有有競爭力的新供應。到目前為止，我們似乎已經擺脫了 2023 年末市場上出現的租金疲勞，並預計 24 年這個市場會出現好的情況。

Hats off to Washington, D.C. as this market is outperforming our revenue growth expectations even after a strong 2023. We're benefiting from a very solid employment picture here, particularly in the defense sector which is driving consistent, stable high occupancy and real strength in our retention. We see good results across the whole market, but The District has recently begun lagging our suburban assets, likely due to nearby supply. Overall, we still expect Washington, D.C. to deliver a good amount of new supply in 2024 with nearly 13,000 competitive units. So we do anticipate the pressure to continue to grow as the year progresses.

向華盛頓特區致敬，因為即使在2023 年表現強勁之後，該市場的收入增長仍超出了我們的預期。高入住率和真正的實力我們的保留。我們看到整個市場都取得了良好的業績，但該地區最近開始落後於我們的郊區資產，可能是由於附近的供應所致。總體而言，我們仍然預計華盛頓特區將在 2024 年提供大量新供應，包括近 13,000 個有競爭力的單位。因此，我們確實預計隨著時間的推移，壓力將繼續增長。

In Los Angeles, we see good demand, but not a lot of pricing power at the moment due to the additional units being brought back to the market through the eviction process. Our portfolio is 96% occupied, and we continue to make progress on the delinquency and bad debt situation, which should be a tailwind for growth in 2024. Time frames for processing evictions have recently improved from 9 months to 6 months, which should help us make more progress going forward. But they still do remain nearly twice as long as they used to be. That being said, we are very encouraged by the recent improvement.

在洛杉磯，我們看到了良好的需求，但由於透過驅逐過程將額外的單位帶回市場，目前定價能力並不強。我們的投資組合已佔用96%，我們在拖欠和壞帳情況方面繼續取得進展，這應該會成為2024 年增長的推動力。我們有幫助取得更大的進步。但它們的壽命仍然是以前的近兩倍。話雖如此，我們對最近的改善感到非常鼓舞。

Rounding out the rest of Southern California, San Diego and Orange County are continuing to be very strong performers. The general lack of housing is keeping occupancies high. Home ownership costs are also high here, which makes renting in these markets the more attractive option. San Diego will see more competitive new supply in 2024, while Orange County will see similar amounts to last year, with limited pressure at a few of our Irvine locations.

除南加州其他地區外，聖地牙哥和橘郡的表現仍然非常強勁。住房普遍短缺導致入住率居高不下。這裡的房屋擁有成本也很高，這使得這些市場的租屋成為更具吸引力的選擇。聖地牙哥將在 2024 年看到更具競爭力的新供應，而橘郡的供應量將與去年相似，而我們在爾灣的一些地點的壓力有限。

Now for the markets that may be of most interest: San Francisco, Seattle and the expansion markets of Dallas-Fort Worth, Denver, Atlanta and Austin. For the 2 West Coast markets, remember that we entered the year with relatively modest expectations but potential for upside. So far both markets are doing better than we expected, but it's early and both remain show-me stories as we saw periods of stability and pullback in 2023.

現在我們來談談最受關注的市場：舊金山、西雅圖以及達拉斯-沃斯堡、丹佛、亞特蘭大和奧斯丁的擴張市場。對於兩個西海岸市場，請記住，我們進入這一年時的預期相對溫和，但仍有上漲的潛力。到目前為止，這兩個市場的表現都比我們預期的要好，但現在還為時過早，而且這兩個市場都仍然是給我看的故事，因為我們在2023 年看到了穩定和回調時期。

In San Francisco, we are well occupied but would like to see continued improvements in pricing power. The South Bay, East Bay and Peninsula continue to perform better than our Downtown portfolio. The situation here remains the same as the market lacks the catalysts, either job growth or more robust return-to-office policies, to create true pricing power. Concessions remain prevalent in the Downtown submarket, but are being issued at a lower rate than they were in the fourth quarter, consistent with what you would seasonally expect.

在舊金山，我們的業務繁忙，但希望看到定價能力不斷提高。南灣、東灣和半島的表現繼續優於我們的市中心投資組合。這裡的情況仍然相同，因為市場缺乏創造真正定價能力的催化劑，無論是就業成長還是更強的重返辦公室政策。市中心子市場的優惠仍然很普遍，但發放率低於第四季度，與您的季節性預期一致。

In Seattle, we carried strength from December into the early part of the year, leading to improved occupancy and the ability to move up rental rates, which is evident in our new lease growth for the quarter. That being said, we do expect a fair amount of competitive new supply in the market in 2024, which could temper growth. The East Side is performing better than the City of Seattle, and our Redmond assets are performing very well despite having some direct pressure from a new lease-up. Overall, the downtowns of both markets are showing real improvement in the quality of life, and the local political situation continues to get much more constructive as a focus on bringing these cities back to the thriving environments they were prior to the pandemic remains front and center with both policymakers and citizens. Recent primary elections in San Francisco were very encouraging as voters supported candidates who are focused on addressing safety and the quality-of-life challenges.

在西雅圖，我們從 12 月到今年年初一直保持強勁勢頭，從而提高了入住率並提高了租金率，這一點在我們本季度的新租賃增長中得到了明顯體現。話雖如此，我們確實預計 2024 年市場上將出現大量具有競爭力的新供應，這可能會抑製成長。東區的表現優於西雅圖市，儘管面臨新租賃帶來的一些直接壓力，但我們的雷德蒙資產仍表現良好。總體而言，這兩個市場的市中心都顯示出生活品質的真正改善，並且當地的政治局勢繼續變得更具建設性，因為重點是讓這些城市恢復到大流行之前的繁榮環境仍然是首要和中心與政策制定者和公民。舊金山最近的初選非常令人鼓舞，因為選民支持專注於解決安全和生活品質挑戰的候選人。

Finally, some commentary on our expansion markets. Strong demand and a favorable regulatory environment continue to confirm our positive long-term outlook for these markets. Unfortunately, however, in the near term, we are seeing the pressures from high levels of new supply being delivered in 2024. Market occupancies are lower than our established markets and concessions are prevalent. So far, concession usage at stabilized asset properties in Atlanta, Dallas-Fort Worth and Denver are running at about 30% of applicants getting about 4 to 6 weeks. And in Austin, it's 60% of applicants getting about 6 weeks. Operating conditions are challenging across all of these markets, but Dallas appears to be more resilient, followed by Denver, Atlanta and then Austin. The job growth numbers in both Austin and Dallas are some of the highest in the country, which is clearly aiding in the absorption of some of the new supply. But the volume of deliveries is high and going to continue to grow throughout the year.

最後，對我們的擴張市場進行一些評論。強勁的需求和有利的監管環境繼續證實我們對這些市場的積極長期前景。然而不幸的是，在短期內，我們看到 2024 年交付的大量新供應帶來的壓力。到目前為止，亞特蘭大、達拉斯-沃斯堡和丹佛的穩定資產物業的特許權使用率約為 30% 的申請人獲得約 4 至 6 週的期限。在奧斯汀，60% 的申請者有大約 6 週的時間。所有這些市場的營運狀況都充滿挑戰，但達拉斯似乎更具彈性，其次是丹佛、亞特蘭大和奧斯丁。奧斯汀和達拉斯的就業成長數字是全國最高的，這顯然有助於吸收一些新的供應。但交付量很高，全年將持續成長。

With regards to bad debt and delinquency, the first quarter results were in line with our expectations. As I mentioned, we continue to see improvements in the time it is taking to process evictions in L.A., which is where the majority of our delinquent residents are, which is resulting in a decrease in the number of long-standing delinquent residents that we have. This is an encouraging sign and continues to support our view that we will see overall improvement in bad debt net contribute 30 basis points to our same-store revenue for the full year.

就壞帳和拖欠而言，第一季業績符合我們的預期。正如我所提到的，我們繼續看到洛杉磯處理驅逐所需的時間有所改善，洛杉磯是我們大多數違法居民所在的地方，這導致我們長期違法居民的數量減少。這是一個令人鼓舞的跡象，並繼續支持我們的觀點，即我們將看到壞帳淨值整體改善，為全年同店收入貢獻 30 個基點。

Now let me hit on some highlights on expenses. Our 1.3% growth in the quarter was better than expected and driven by a decrease in both utilities and repairs and maintenance, coupled with pretty flat on-site payroll expense growth. On the utility expense, we primarily benefited from lower commodity pricing. We also intend to take advantage of federal and local incentive programs to continue to accelerate our sustainability efforts and moderate future utility growth. For example, we have 26 future solar installations planned, in addition to our 55 active systems, which will help reduce our future overall assumption.

現在讓我談談有關費用的一些要點。本季 1.3% 的成長優於預期，這是由於公用事業、維修和維護費用的減少以及現場工資支出成長相當平穩所致。在公用事業費用方面，我們主要受益於商品定價較低。我們還打算利用聯邦和地方激勵計劃繼續加速我們的永續發展努力並緩和未來公用事業的成長。例如，除了我們的 55 個主動系統之外，我們還計劃在未來安裝 26 個太陽能裝置，這將有助於減少我們未來的整體假設。

Our repairs and maintenance expense decrease was driven primarily by lower turnover costs and, to a lesser degree, maintenance expense, which was unusually elevated in the prior year. Once again, our disciplined approach to expense management has continued to pay off. On the innovation front, as we have previously discussed, we will be focused on a number of initiatives to drive both revenue growth and operating efficiencies.

我們的維修和保養費用減少主要是由於週轉成本降低，以及在較小程度上由於上一年異常增加的維護費用所致。我們嚴格的費用管理方法再次取得了成效。在創新方面，正如我們之前所討論的，我們將重點放在一系列舉措，以推動收入成長和營運效率。

Specific to other income, our expectation remains unchanged that this will be a contributor of 30 basis points to our full year same-store revenue growth. During the quarter, we delivered 60 basis points, which was slightly ahead of our original expectations and mostly due to faster implementation of our parking revenue optimization program.

具體到其他收入，我們的預期保持不變，即這將為我們全年同店收入增長貢獻 30 個基點。本季度，我們實現了 60 個基點，略高於我們最初的預期，這主要是由於停車收入優化計劃的更快實施。

In addition to our efforts around other income, we have been very focused on areas of opportunity like leveraging artificial intelligence into our business process. As early adopters of these AI interactions, we are thrilled with the performance of these tools. Over the past year, our AI leasing assistant, Ella, has engaged with just over 600,000 customer inquiries, set 2 million responses addressing prospect questions, and booked over 80,000 appointments. Leveraging this type of automation at the top of our demand funnel has been incredibly effective, allowing us to be nimble with increasing initial traffic demand without impacting our remaining on-site employees' ability to provide high-touch customer interactions when needed. We're excited to share that in the coming quarter we will begin testing an AI resident assistant, helping existing residents 24/7 with common questions about their community service and even their account statements.

除了我們圍繞其他收入所做的努力之外，我們還非常關注機會領域，例如將人工智慧融入我們的業務流程。作為這些人工智慧互動的早期採用者，我們對這些工具的效能感到非常興奮。在過去的一年裡，我們的人工智慧租賃助理 Ella 處理了超過 60 萬起客戶詢問，針對潛在客戶的問題做出了 200 萬條回复，並預訂了超過 80,000 次預約。在我們的需求管道頂部利用這種類型的自動化非常有效，使我們能夠靈活地應對不斷增加的初始流量需求，而不會影響我們剩餘的現場員工在需要時提供高接觸客戶互動的能力。我們很高興與大家分享，在下個季度，我們將開始測試人工智慧居民助理，24/7 幫助現有居民解決有關社區服務甚至帳戶報表的常見問題。

I want to give a shout out for our amazing teams across our platform for their continued dedication to innovation and enhancing customer service. As we sit here today, we're 96.5% occupied and continue to see strength in our renewal process, which positions us very well to capture the pricing power opportunities that the peak leasing season will bring.

我想對我們平台上出色的團隊表示讚揚，感謝他們持續致力於創新和增強客戶服務。當我們今天坐在這裡時，我們的入住率為 96.5%，並且我們的續約流程繼續保持強勁勢頭，這使我們能夠很好地抓住租賃旺季帶來的定價權機會。

With that, I turn it over to the operator for Q&A.

說完，我將其交給接線員進行問答。

(Operator Instructions) And our first question will come from Eric Wolfe with Citi.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題將來自花旗銀行的埃里克·沃爾夫（Eric Wolfe）。

If I look at your April new lease growth of 0.1% versus the 1.6% at this time last year, I'm just trying to understand why it's a bit lower given you're in a better occupancy position. I think you said record retention, record low turnover. So just wondering if we could see that catch up over the next couple of months.

如果我看看你們 4 月份的新租賃增長率為 0.1%，而去年這個時候為 1.6%，我只是想理解為什麼在你們的入住情況更好的情況下，這個數字會低一些。我想你說的是創紀錄的留存率和創紀錄的低營業額。所以只是想知道我們是否能在接下來的幾個月看到這一點。

Eric, this is Michael. So yes, I think one of the things you need to remember is that, relative to the first quarter in 2023, we are issuing more concessions right now. So that does impact a little bit of what you see in that new lease change. But clearly, when you just think about the normal rent seasonality curve, pricing trend or asking rents in the marketplace, we're seeing that sequentially build. And you're seeing that sequential improvement in kind of the new lease stats for April over March. So I think what you should expect for the next several months working our way probably even through the middle of the third quarter is that we will sequentially build new lease change up, and we will see that stability in kind of the renewal, achieved renewal increase performance. So you're right to call out that it's a little lower than norm, but right now we like the sequential improvement that we're seeing.

埃里克，這是麥可。所以，是的，我認為您需要記住的一件事是，相對於 2023 年第一季度，我們現在正在發放更多優惠。因此，這確實會影響您在新租約變更中看到的一些內容。但顯然，當你考慮正常的租金季節性曲線、定價趨勢或市場上的租金要價時，我們會看到這種情況依序建立。您將看到 4 月份的新租賃統計數據比 3 月份連續改善。因此，我認為您應該期望在接下來的幾個月中，甚至在第三季度中期，我們將依次建立新的租賃變更，並且我們將看到續約類型的穩定性，實現續約的增加表現。所以你說它比正常水平要低一點是正確的，但現在我們喜歡我們所看到的連續改進。

All right. That's helpful. And then to your point on concessions, if we look at SF and Seattle, specifically, can you maybe talk about where concession usage is today versus, say, this time last year and if you're planning to dial that back further as we get into the peak leasing season?

好的。這很有幫助。然後就您對優惠的觀點而言，如果我們具體關注舊金山和西雅圖，您能否談談今天的優惠使用情況與去年的這個時候相比，以及您是否計劃在我們得到信息後進一步回撥優惠使用情況進入租賃旺季？

Yes. And I think I called this out even on the first -- or the call in January, that we made a strategic decision to increase the concession use, build up that occupancy in the fourth quarter, and really have been just pulling back the concession use as we worked our way through the first quarter. The most pronounced reduction actually came out of San Francisco. I think the offset to that reduction is that we also started to utilize some concessions in LA. So when you think about the sequential change from the fourth quarter through the first quarter, our concession use ticked down a little bit but not as much as what it would have been if we didn't start increasing some of the usage in the L.A. market.

是的。我想我甚至在第一次或一月份的電話會議上就指出了這一點，我們做出了一項戰略決定，增加特許權使用，在第四季度增加入住率，並且實際上只是減少了特許權使用當我們努力度過第一季時。最明顯的減少實際上來自舊金山。我認為這種減少的抵消是我們也開始在洛杉磯利用一些優惠。因此，當您考慮從第四季度到第一季的連續變化時，我們的特許權使用量略有下降，但不如我們不開始增加洛杉磯市場的部分使用量時的情況那麼多。

Right now, about 50% of the concessions that we're using are concentrated in Seattle and San Francisco, with a large majority of those sitting in those downtown areas. Both of those markets are below where they were in January. And I'll tell you, we've had a really strong couple of leasing weeks. So I know the teams right now for the last several weeks have been strategically looking at where they can continue to dial back the concession use.

目前，我們使用的特許權中約有 50% 集中在西雅圖和舊金山，其中大部分位於市中心地區。這兩個市場均低於一月份的水平。我會告訴你，我們的租賃幾週非常強勁。所以我知道過去幾週各團隊一直在策略性地尋找可以繼續減少特許權使用的地方。

And our next question will come from John Pawlowski with Green Street.

我們的下一個問題將來自 Green Street 的 John Pawlowski。

First question is on CapEx, Bob. It's been running, I think, last year about 3,700 unit, up to 3,800 this year, which is 40% higher than 2022. Is this a new structurally higher level of CapEx we should expect moving forward? Or should we expect a reversion to historical levels in the coming years?

第一個問題是關於資本支出，鮑伯。我認為，去年它的運行量約為 3,700 台，今年達到 3,800 台，比 2022 年高出 40%。或者我們是否應該期望在未來幾年恢復到歷史水平？

John, it's Alex. So there are a couple of factors at play there. One is -- and we talked a little bit about this last quarter, is leaning in more on some ROI projects, specifically renovations, some solar installations, some smart rent installations as well, and EV chargers. So there's some things that we can toggle up and down. They have ROIs on them, and they're discretionary. So that's in the mix.

約翰，這是亞歷克斯。所以有幾個因素在起作用。一個是——我們在上個季度對此進行了一些討論，更傾向於一些投資回報率項目，特別是翻新、一些太陽能裝置、一些智慧租賃裝置和電動車充電器。所以有些東西我們可以上下切換。他們有投資報酬率，並且可以自行決定。這就是混合中的情況。

There's also an element of catch-up from the pandemic. Those are projects that we just couldn't get to because we didn't want to disrupt our residents who were staying at home at that time. And so there's a little bit of catch-up there. So we're going to have a couple of more years of that, we think. So I think this 3,800-ish number is pretty good.

還有一個來自大流行的追趕因素。這些項目我們無法進行，因為我們不想打擾當時待在家裡的居民。所以這裡有一些追趕的情況。因此，我們認為，這種情況還會持續幾年。所以我覺得這個3800左右的數字已經很不錯了。

Okay. And then a question on markets. I mean, Michael or Mark, I guess, which markets when you're looking at just in terms of the absolute level of rents are you more concerned you're getting closer to hitting the affordability ceiling?

好的。然後是關於市場的問題。我的意思是，邁克爾或馬克，我想，當您僅考慮租金的絕對水平時，您更擔心哪個市場即將達到負擔能力上限？

Yes, John, this is Michael. So really, from the affordability standpoint, I wouldn't say we have any concerns at all. I mean we're not seeing a material shift. We still sit at about 20% rent-to-income ratios. And the range is fairly tight, running between like 18.5% to 24%. And the Southern California markets are sitting up at that higher range and they really historically have always been up at that level.

是的，約翰，這是麥可。所以說真的，從負擔能力的角度來看，我不會說我們有任何擔憂。我的意思是我們沒有看到實質的轉變。我們的租金與收入比率仍維持在 20% 左右。而且範圍相當窄，大約在 18.5% 到 24% 之間。南加州市場正處於這個較高的區間，而且歷史上它們確實一直處於這個水平。

So I'm not concerned about us hitting that point where the affordability index. I think what we saw in a market like New York where you had such robust rent growth through the peak leasing season last year, you hit that point where kind of you felt like you hit a rent fatigue level. We're not seeing any of that right now in the portfolio, but it's still pretty early into the leasing season. So I'm more looking at that absolute rent level than anything around the affordability of our resident base.

所以我並不擔心我們會達到負擔能力指數的那個點。我認為我們在紐約這樣的市場上看到的情況，在去年的租賃旺季，租金增長如此強勁，你已經達到了這樣的程度，你感覺自己已經達到了租金疲勞水平。我們目前在投資組合中還沒有看到任何此類情況，但現在仍處於租賃季節的早期階段。因此，我更關注的是絕對租金水平，而不是我們居民基礎的負擔能力。

And our next question will come from Steve Sakwa with Evercore ISI.

我們的下一個問題將來自 Evercore ISI 的 Steve Sakwa。

Michael, I was wondering if you could just provide a little bit more commentary on the San Francisco and Seattle sort of strengths, and whether you can determine are those kind of folks that are returning to the market? Are they just kind of moving around the Bay Area and Seattle? Just how do we think about that demand that's picked up in the drop in concessions?

邁克爾，我想知道您是否可以對舊金山和西雅圖的優勢提供更多評論，以及您是否可以確定是那些正在返回市場的人？他們只是在灣區和西雅圖附近移動嗎？我們如何看待因優惠減少而增加的需求？

Yes. It's a great question. So this is Michael. So I look at those markets right now and I think, clearly, we did see some marginal improvement with the migration patterns. We're still running with a slightly higher percent of new residents coming to us from within the MSA, meaning we're just trading around within the MSA. But we are marginally seeing some improvement, but we are elevated still from those historical norms. And I think we're going to remain elevated until you see the catalyst of either job growth or specific to like Downtown San Francisco really seeing kind of a more robust return-to-office policy.

是的。這是一個很好的問題。這就是麥可。所以我現在看看這些市場，我認為，顯然，我們確實看到了遷移模式的一些邊際改善。來自 MSA 內部的新居民比例仍然略高，這意味著我們只是在 MSA 內進行交易。但我們略微看到了一些改善，但我們仍然比那些歷史規範有所提升。我認為我們將保持較高的水平，直到你看到就業成長的催化劑，或者俱體到像舊金山市中心這樣真正看到更強有力的重返辦公室政策。

So in terms of the demand, it's not really like the migration factors that are doing it. I still think you see some folks coming from further out near or in, and that was a little bit of the catalyst that we saw. And you also get a different sense of vibrancy. I mean we talked about this now for over a year. Every quarter, the cities, those metro areas seem to start feeling better and better. And you're seeing that play out.

因此，就需求而言，這並不像移民因素那樣。我仍然認為你會看到一些人從更遠的地方或近或近的地方過來，這是我們看到的一點催化劑。而且你還會感受到不一樣的活力感。我的意思是我們已經討論這個問題一年多了。每個季度，城市、大都會地區似乎都開始感覺越來越好。你正在看到這種情況的發生。

So right now, our positioning -- we've got both markets sitting up at 96% occupied. It gives us a lot of confidence to keep pressuring whether we're raising the absolute rate, holding back the concession, we're seeing the sequential build in our net effective rent. And that's what we're looking for. As long as the velocity holds, we're going to do really well through the peak leasing season. But we've seen these markets before kind of have fits and starts. So I think it's just too early to call that these are wins for the year.

所以現在，我們的定位是──我們兩個市場的佔有率都達到 96%。這給了我們很大的信心，讓我們能夠繼續施壓，是否要提高絕對利率，是否要阻止讓步，我們看到淨有效租金連續上升。這就是我們正在尋找的。只要速度不變，我們就能在租賃旺季表現出色。但我們以前就見過這些市場的時斷時續。所以我認為現在說這些是今年的勝利還為時過早。

Yes, I'm just going to elaborate. It's Mark, Steve, I'd add a little bit. Again, we do see that improvement in Downtown San Francisco, but it's not yet the job growth we probably need to drive rents. But we're 14% or so below rent levels that we're pre-pandemic. So there's definitely room here. Incomes have gone up, as we've talked about on the calls.

是的，我只是要詳細說明。我是馬克、史蒂夫，我想補充一點。同樣，我們確實看到舊金山市中心的情況有所改善，但這還不是我們可能需要的就業成長來推動租金成長。但我們的租金水準比疫情爆發前低了 14% 左右。所以這裡一定有空間。正如我們在電話中談到的那樣，收入增加了。

The crime statistics in the city of San Francisco generally have really improved compared to last year and compared to pre-pandemic levels. And as Michael said, politically, we think the March 2024 primary was a real watershed moment. We think the citizens really took it upon themselves on both public safety and other matters to really take back their city. So we're excited about some of the progress there.

與去年和大流行前的水平相比，舊金山市的犯罪統計數據總體上確實有所改善。正如麥可所說，從政治角度來看，我們認為 2024 年 3 月的初選是一個真正的分水嶺時刻。我們認為，公民確實在公共安全和其他事務上承擔了自己的責任，真正奪回了自己的城市。因此，我們對那裡的一些進展感到興奮。

The AI revolution is a big driver potentially for San Francisco, the city and the Bay Area more widely. Our numbers indicate that the Bay Area is getting 13x more funding than the next metro area in terms of AI investment. Now that's very significant.

人工智慧革命可能是舊金山、這座城市和整個灣區的一大潛在推動力。我們的數據表明，就人工智慧投資而言，灣區獲得的資金是鄰近都會區的 13 倍。這非常重要。

Now those jobs aren't that many yet. I mean they are a few hundred. They're not the thousands. So we're not seeing that job growth yet that we really need to drive our numbers. But we are seeing that network effect where companies like OpenAI was incubated at UC Berkeley and it opted to stay in San Francisco. Some of these incubator firms have moved back in to San Francisco from the city, from the suburbs. So that's all really positive.

現在這些工作還沒有那麼多。我的意思是他們有幾百人。他們不是成千上萬的人。因此，我們還沒有看到我們真正需要推動的就業成長。但我們看到了網路效應，像 OpenAI 這樣的公司在加州大學柏克萊分校孵化，但它選擇留在舊金山。其中一些孵化器公司已經從市區、郊區搬回舊金山。所以這一切都是非常正面的。

In Seattle, I just want to give a plug for our friends in the Northwest, I mean this enormous $700 million project, their version of the Big Dig, to take the Alaskan Way highway and put it underground and really activate the waterfront is really significant. It's driving tourism, it's driving activation slowly but surely in Downtown Seattle.

在西雅圖，我只想為西北地區的朋友們加油，我的意思是，這個耗資 7 億美元的巨大項目，他們的大挖掘版本，將阿拉斯加公路修建到地下，真正激活濱水區，意義重大。它正在推動旅遊業，它正在緩慢但堅定地推動西雅圖市中心的活力。

Seattle's problem is really going to be the supply issues. There's just a fair bit of supply. But we do see activity levels improving. And again, politically, the city council and the mayor are much more focused in Seattle on public safety and quality of life because that's what their constituents have told them to be focused on.

西雅圖的問題其實是供應問題。供應量還算可以。但我們確實看到活動量有所改善。同樣，在政治上，西雅圖市議會和市長更關注公共安全和生活質量，因為這是他們的選民告訴他們要關注的重點。

So again, we're pretty excited. And I guess we'd make the statement that we continue to see Seattle and San Francisco as when, not if, stories. And the when could be this year if things continue as they are, but we need to see a little few more months of continued good results in a market that, again, can give you a head fake once in a while.

再說一遍，我們非常興奮。我想我們會聲明，我們仍然將西雅圖和舊金山視為故事，而不是故事。如果事情繼續這樣下去的話，可能會在今年，但我們需要看到市場再持續幾個月的良好業績，這個市場偶爾也會帶給你假象。

Great. Maybe the second question, I don't know if Mark or Bob, you want to take this, on the -- I guess it was on the late fee California settlement and the charge that you guys took in the quarter. Can you just kind of elaborate or say what you can say about that? And does this kind of put this issue to bed? Or could there still be lingering kind of issues that come out of that lawsuit?

偉大的。也許是第二個問題，我不知道馬克或鮑勃，你們是否願意接受這個，我想這是關於加州滯納金和解金以及你們在本季度收取的費用。您能詳細說明一下或說一下您對此有何看法嗎？這是否可以解決這個問題？或者該訴訟是否仍存在一些揮之不去的問題？

Steve, it's Mark. Thanks for that question. I mean we are still in active litigation, as you suggested in your comment or your question. So there's not a lot I can say. Just to give you a little background, this has been a case that's been going on for 10 years. About the amount of late fees, we just got a ruling from a judge that was adverse to our interest, so we adjusted the reserve. We are considering our appeal options. So to your point about adjustments, they could go up or down depending on our actions.

史蒂夫，我是馬克。謝謝你提出這個問題。我的意思是，正如您在評論或問題中所建議的那樣，我們仍在積極訴訟中。所以我能說的不多。只是為了向您提供一些背景知識，這個案例已經持續了 10 年。關於滯納金的金額，我們剛剛得到法官的裁決，這對我們的利益不利，所以我們調整了準備金。我們正在考慮上訴選項。因此，就您對調整的觀點而言，它們可能會根據我們的行動而上升或下降。

Also the judge didn't give us a number. He gave us a methodology, and we're working out with claimant's council what that means. So we can charge late fees, it's just the amount that's an issue. So we need to figure that out. So there could certainly be additional adjustments. I wouldn't expect them to be terribly significant upward. But if we win an appeal, I guess there could be a downward adjustment. But this is going to go on for a little while yet, I would think.

法官也沒有給我們一個數字。他給了我們一種方法，我們正在與索賠人委員會一起研究這意味著什麼。所以我們可以收取滯納金，只是金額是個問題。所以我們需要弄清楚這一點。所以肯定可能會有額外的調整。我不認為它們會大幅上升。但如果我們贏得上訴，我想可能會出現向下調整。但我認為這種情況還會持續一段時間。

And our next question will come from Josh Dennerlein with Bank of America.

我們的下一個問題將來自美國銀行的 Josh Dennerlein。

I appreciate all the comments on San Francisco and Seattle, definitely a hot topic. Could you just remind us your split between urban and suburban exposure in those markets?

我感謝所有關於舊金山和西雅圖的評論，這絕對是一個熱門話題。您能否提醒我們一下您在這些市場中城市和郊區風險敞口之間的差異？

Yes. Josh, it's Alex. In Seattle, we're 60% urban and 40% suburban. In San Francisco, it's the opposite of that. So we have a broader suburban exposure there.

是的。喬許，這是亞歷克斯。在西雅圖，60% 位於城市，40% 位於郊區。在舊金山，情況恰恰相反。所以我們在那裡有更廣泛的郊區曝光。

Okay. Cool. I appreciate that. And then I guess just are the trends like really materially different between the urban and suburban assets in those markets? And just trying to figure out like the dichotomy going forward.

好的。涼爽的。我很感激。然後我想這些市場的城市和郊區資產之間的趨勢真的有本質上的差異嗎？只是想弄清楚未來的二分法。

Yes. Josh, this is Michael. Yes, they're absolutely different. And again, this remains the story about kind of the City of Seattle and Downtown San Francisco is where we see kind of the least amount of pricing power, kind of lower occupancy. So the suburban portfolios are clearly outperforming the urban, and that's a trend we've seen for a while in those markets.

是的。喬什，這是邁克爾。是的，它們完全不同。再說一次，這仍然是關於西雅圖市和舊金山市中心的故事，我們看到那裡的定價能力最小，入住率較低。因此，郊區投資組合的表現顯然優於城市，這是我們在這些市場一段時間以來看到的趨勢。

The only thing I would call out in San Francisco is that you do have some supply coming back to the South Bay and it is back-half loaded. So you do need to see kind of that demand pick up because you have like 4,000 units coming back to that submarket just later on this year. But again, it's doing -- it's performing very well right now. We saw it absorb 4,000 units a couple of years ago. So it's nothing that we're concerned, but it's still something that we're watching for.

在舊金山，我唯一要指出的是，確實有一些供應返回南灣，而且是後半裝的。因此，您確實需要看到需求回升，因為今年稍後將有大約 4,000 輛汽車回到該子市場。但同樣，它正在做——它現在表現得非常好。幾年前我們看到它吸收了 4,000 套。所以這不是我們擔心的事情，但它仍然是我們正在關注的事情。

Our next question comes from Adam Kramer with Morgan Stanley.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的亞當·克萊默。

This is Derrick Metzler on for Adam Kramer. I wonder if you could tell us anything about the cadence of same-store growth for the rest of the year and kind of what to expect given the strong 1Q and full year guidance that's kind of well below that?

我是德里克·梅茨勒 (Derrick Metzler)，替補亞當·克萊默 (Adam Kramer)。我想知道您能否告訴我們有關今年剩餘時間同店增長節奏的信息，以及考慮到遠低於這一水平的強勁第一季度和全年指導，我們可以期待什麼？

Yes. Thanks, Derrick. It's Bob. I'll take that. Let me start because there's a few pieces driving this, but let me start on the same-store revenue front with the residential rental component. Our assumption for residential rental income is that we anticipate a year that is pretty normal, meaning that sequentially, we expect the blended rates to continue to get better until they seasonally decline in Q4. And so you're going to see that normal kind of robust growth pattern as you work your way sequentially through.

是的。謝謝，德里克。是鮑伯。我會接受的。讓我開始吧，因為有幾個因素推動了這一點，但讓我從住宅租賃部分的同店收入開始。我們對住宅租金收入的假設是，我們預計這一年將非常正常，這意味著我們預計混合利率將繼續好轉，直到第四季季節性下降。因此，當您按順序進行工作時，您將看到正常的強勁成長模式。

On the other income front, which also drives the same-store revenue piece, that's a little bit lumpier. So we expect to see bad debt improvement and increased income from initiatives later in the year as well. So that will all help growth as you kind of continue on sequentially as well.

在另一個收入方面，這也推動了同店收入的成長，但情況有點不穩定。因此，我們預計今年稍後壞帳將會改善，收入也會增加。因此，當你繼續按順序進行時，這一切都將有助於成長。

And then the nonresidential side, which you saw some lumpiness in the first quarter that we disclosed in a footnote on the bottom of Page 10, that is going to be a little bit of a drag when you get to the back half of the year. But when you get to the full holistic year, it doesn't really impact same-store revenue overall.

然後是非住宅方面，我們在第 10 頁底部的腳註中披露了第一季的一些波動，當你進入今年下半年時，這將有點拖累。但當你進入全年整體時，它並不會真正影響整體同店收入。

So normal kind of seasonal trajectory. Given the comp period, when you put it in the blender, when you look at quarter-over-quarter, we would expect the quarter-over-quarter to be lower in the back quarters of the year than they are in the first quarter.

這是正常的季節性軌跡。考慮到比較期，當你將其放入攪拌機中時，當你查看季度環比時，我們預計今年後幾個季度的季度將低於第一季。

Got it. And anything on expenses, too? And the cadence there for the year?

知道了。還有費用方面的事嗎？今年的節奏如何？

Yes. Also pretty typical. We certainly had a very good first quarter on the expense side, better than what we anticipated as we kind of highlighted in the disclosure. And we didn't adjust guidance at all. So we do expect that it's -- while it's early, we're being a little bit cautious on the expense side. So we're hopeful that we can do better than the midpoint of our guidance range, but we'll see.

是的。也很典型。我們在費用方面當然有一個非常好的第一季度，比我們在披露中強調的預期要好。我們根本沒有調整指導。因此，我們確實預計，雖然現在還為時過早，但我們在費用方面會有點謹慎。因此，我們希望我們能夠做得比指導範圍的中點更好，但我們拭目以待。

But from a growth trajectory standpoint, remember that Q2 and Q3 are always usually the higher growth rate periods because you have more turnover going on in the portfolio because you're in the leasing season. So you expect those growth rates to be higher. And then the only other thing I would highlight is 4Q had a difficult comp period. 2023 fourth quarter growth rates were really low, and so we have a little bit of a harder comp period in the fourth quarter. But we're off to a really good start on expenses, and so we're cautiously optimistic there.

但從成長軌蹟的角度來看，請記住，第二季和第三季通常始終是成長率較高的時期，因為您正處於租賃季節，因此投資組合中的周轉率更高。所以你預計這些成長率會更高。我唯一要強調的另一件事是第四季經歷了一段艱難的補償期。 2023 年第四季的成長率確實很低，因此我們第四季的比較期有點困難。但我們在支出方面有了一個非常好的開端，因此我們對此持謹慎樂觀的態度。

Thank you. Congrats on the strong quarter.

謝謝。恭喜季度表現強勁。

And we'll take a question from Michael Goldsmith with UBS.

我們將回答瑞銀集團麥可‧戈德史密斯的問題。

At what point during the year do you feel confident about maybe not hitting the low end of the guidance, like recognizing you don't make adjustments for the first quarter of print, you did speak about trends being ahead of expectations, I guess maybe the question is, are you, at this point, do you feel like you're trending at the higher end of the range or above the range? Where you sit today? And what will give you confidence about adjusting that with the next quarter?

在這一年中的什麼時候，您對可能不會達到指導的低端感到有信心，例如認識到您沒有對第一季度的印刷進行調整，您確實談到了趨勢超出了預期，我想也許是問題是，此時您是否感覺自己的趨勢處於該範圍的高端或高於該範圍？今天你坐哪兒？什麼會讓您有信心在下個季度進行調整？

Thanks for the question, Michael. It's Mark. We generally look at this at the end of each quarter. And because we have so much disproportionate activity in the second quarter, that it makes sense to us that that would be the time to really look hard at this. It's a really volatile world, even more so than usual, both in the economic terms and every other term you could think of. So to us, it makes some sense to wait. We've got a few markets that feel like they're poised to recover, but Seattle and San Francisco specifically. And those have been a little bit -- markets with a little bit of volatility as well.

謝謝你的提問，麥可。是馬克。我們通常會在每個季度末查看此內容。因為我們在第二季度有如此多的不成比例的活動，所以對我們來說，這將是真正認真審視這個問題的時候。這是一個非常不穩定的世界，無論是在經濟方面還是在您能想到的所有其他方面，甚至比平常更加不穩定。所以對我們來說，等待是有意義的。我們有一些市場感覺即將復甦，但特別是西雅圖和舊金山。這些市場也有一點波動。

So I guess I don't know what to say about whether you get the low end of the guidance or the high end of the guidance, but right now we're clearly pointed to the high end of the rev number and the lower end of the expense range. But this is just 1 quarter and there's a lot of time to go. And again, we feel very optimistic and very excited about the fundamentals of the business, and we'll report back in July and tell you where we are.

所以我想我不知道該說什麼關於您是否獲得指導的低端或高端指導，但現在我們明確指出轉速數的高端和轉速的低端費用範圍。但這只是1個季度，還有很多時間。再說一遍，我們對業務的基本面感到非常樂觀和興奮，我們將在 7 月報告並告訴您我們的進展。

And my second question is, you sold a couple of properties during the quarter, used that to buy back some stock, paid out some debt, maybe fund some of these development. Would you look to kind of continue to sell at the current piece? And does the fact that -- you did talk about how there's $200 billion of dry powder on the sidelines to reinvest into real estate, like would you continue to sell even if there is nothing to acquire?

我的第二個問題是，您在本季度出售了幾處房產，用它們回購了一些股票，償還了一些債務，也許為其中一些開發提供了資金。您會考慮繼續以當前的價格出售嗎？事實上，你確實談到瞭如何有 2000 億美元的乾火藥在場外再投資於房地產，就像即使沒有什麼可收購的情況下你會繼續出售嗎？

Michael, it's Alex. We're going to slow down the dispositions until we see better visibility into the acquisition side of the market. And it did feel like 2 or 3 weeks ago we were getting there, that there were -- buyers and sellers were kind of finding common ground at around 5 to 5.25. But then the inflation report came in hot, hotter than expected, and that really kind of threw everything backwards to where we were a quarter ago, where there's a pretty good spread right now, the tenure, I think, is over 4.6 today. And so we're just trying to figure out what the cap rate environment is for acquisitions. And so we'll just temper the dispose until we get a better sense of that.

邁克爾，是亞歷克斯。我們將放慢處置速度，直到我們對市場的收購方面有更好的了解。確實感覺就像 2 或 3 週前我們就到達了那裡，買家和賣家在 5 到 5.25 左右找到了共同點。但隨後通膨報告發布，比預期更熱，這確實讓一切都回到了一個季度前的水平，現在的利差相當不錯，我認為，今天的任期已經超過 4.6。因此，我們只是想弄清楚收購的資本化率環境是怎麼樣的。因此，我們將調整處理方式，直到我們對此有更好的了解。

And our next question will come from Haendel St. Juste with Mizuho.

我們的下一個問題將來自 Haendel St. Juste 和 Mizuho。

I had a follow-up on, I guess, the rent reversal -- I'm here. Can you hear me?

我想，我對租金逆轉進行了後續行動——我在這裡。你聽得到我嗎？

Yes, we can now. Go ahead, Haendel, we can hear you.

是的，我們現在可以了。繼續吧，亨德爾，我們能聽到你的聲音。

Sorry about that. So had a follow up on the rent reversals during -- okay. I had a question on the rent reversals in the quarter. The improved collectibility expectations you outlined, I assume they were tied to Rite Aid. So can you outline what's changed there and why you're adjusting your expectations? And then what's the net-net of all of this beyond this year? I think you said this year was a net neutral event. So just curious if the space now spoken for or what we should expect over the next year or 2.

對於那個很抱歉。所以在期間對租金逆轉進行了跟進——好吧。我對本季的租金逆轉有疑問。您概述的改進的收藏性期望，我認為它們與 Rite Aid 相關。那麼您能否概述一下那裡發生了什麼變化以及為什麼要調整您的期望？那麼今年之後所有這一切的淨值是多少？我想你說今年是網路中立的事件。所以只是好奇現在的空間是否適合或我們在未來一兩年該期待什麼。

Yes. Let me -- Haendel, it's Bob. Let me clarify real quick. So relative to expectations, we had in our guidance expectations as we called out the straight-line receivable reversal as it relates to nonresidential. So there's no change to expectations.

是的。讓我——亨德爾，我是鮑伯。讓我快速澄清一下。因此，相對於預期，我們在指導預期中提出了與非住宅相關的直線應收帳款逆轉。所以預期沒有改變。

The other thing I would point out is that the benefit in the first quarter actually has no relation to the Rite Aid lease that we talked about last year. So let me describe what it is. You may recall that during the pandemic, we actually took a large write-off of the straight-line receivable related to a variety of tenants, which converted those nonresidential tenants to a cash basis of accounting. Under the accounting literature that, over time, when your outlook on collectibility changes, you convert them back to an accrual basis level of accounting. So you put that straight line receivable back on the books.

我要指出的另一件事是，第一季的收益實際上與我們去年談到的 Rite Aid 租賃無關。那麼讓我來描述一下它是什麼。您可能還記得，在疫情期間，我們實際上對與各種租戶相關的直線應收帳款進行了大量沖銷，從而將這些非住宅租戶轉換為收付實現制會計。根據會計文獻，隨著時間的推移，當您對可收回性的看法發生變化時，您會將其轉換回權責發生製會計水準。因此，您將直線應收帳款重新記入帳簿。

As you can imagine, given the nature of the tenancy and the nature of that space in the retail, we're very cautious to ensure that there was our collectibility view change. So we had a pretty high hurdle rate in terms of determining that we thought that these leases would be collectible, and we did so in the first quarter, but that was intended and anticipated in guidance. So what you saw was a return of that receivable balance. We don't expect there to be much more there in the quarterly cadence for nonresidential. And so that's kind of what that nature was specifically.

正如您可以想像的那樣，考慮到租賃的性質和零售空間的性質，我們非常謹慎地確保我們的收藏觀點發生變化。因此，在確定這些租賃可以收回時，我們的門檻率相當高，我們在第一季就這樣做了，但這是指導中的預期和預期。所以你看到的是應收帳款餘額的回饋。我們預計非住宅的季度節奏不會有更多。這就是那種本質的具體意義。

Since you mentioned Rite Aid, I will just say one quick thing on Rite Aid because that is a rather large space. So that space, the lease was terminated associated with Rite Aid, but we have re-leased it. So we have an active lease with a very high credit quality tenant. We're in the process of putting TI dollars into that. And once those TI dollars are completed, which should happen later this year, at that point, we'll turn the space over and we can begin revenue recognition on that lease specifically. And that's the update on Rite Aid. But otherwise, there's nothing -- there's no relationship with Rite Aid at this point.

既然你提到了 Rite Aid，我就簡單說一下 Rite Aid，因為那是一個相當大的空間。因此，該空間與 Rite Aid 相關的租約已終止，但我們已重新租賃它。因此，我們有一個活躍的租約，租戶的信用品質非常高。我們正在為此投入 TI 資金。一旦這些 TI 資金完成（這應該會在今年稍後發生），那時我們將移交空間，並且我們可以開始專門對該租賃進行收入確認。這就是 Rite Aid 的最新動態。但除此之外，什麼都沒有——目前與 Rite Aid 沒有任何關係。

That was helpful. And then on -- a question on the second quarter guide here. Yes, a quick one on the second quarter guide. It seems a bit low versus what we and I guess the Street was expecting, especially in consideration with the rental dynamics you're enjoying. So curious if there's any one-timers impacting that. Anything in there from a dispositions perspective, anything moving the needle? Or is that a clean guide?

這很有幫助。然後是關於第二季指南的問題。是的，這是第二季指南的快速介紹。與我們和我猜測華爾街的預期相比，這似乎有點低，特別是考慮到您所享受的租賃動態。很好奇是否有任何一次性者會影響這一點。從性格的角度來看，裡面有什麼東西可以推動一切嗎？或者這是一個乾淨的指南？

Yes. Good question. So as you saw from our full year guidance, we didn't adjust our full year guidance, but we did give -- provide for the first time NFFO guidance for the second quarter, and continue to maintain what is probably a little bit of a cautious outlook still. But there are a couple of callouts that I would say that are inherent in the Q2 NFFO guidance, that range that we provided, that are a little bit different than what you would have normally seen sequentially between Q1 and Q2, which I think is what you're getting at, Haendel.

是的。好問題。因此，正如您從我們的全年指導中看到的那樣，我們沒有調整全年指導，但我們確實首次提供了第二季度的 NFFO 指導，並繼續維持可能有點展望仍需謹慎。但我想說，第二季 NFFO 指南中固有的一些標註，即我們提供的範圍，與您通常在第一季和第二季之間順序看到的略有不同，我認為這就是你說對了，亨德爾。

The core business continues to do what we would expect it to do as Michael just outlined. So the core kind of residential NOI business is growing the way that it would normally grow, but we won't have that sequential benefit from the straight-line receivable that I just described. So that's a little bit of drag on the sequential component. Overhead is also not declining as quickly sequentially as what it has done in historical periods for a few puts and takes. And finally, there is a little bit of transaction noise because we are front-end loaded on the disposition side. Oftentimes, when we do dispositions, we put those proceeds into 1031 accounts, which are interest-bearing cash accounts, but they don't earn as much interest as the NOI loss. That's a temporary dilution that we incur. And so that's putting a bit of a drag on the sequential Q1 to Q2 numbers.

正如邁克爾剛才概述的那樣，核心業務繼續做我們期望的事情。因此，住宅 NOI 業務的核心類型正在以正常方式增長，但我們不會從我剛才描述的直線應收帳款中獲得連續的收益。所以這對順序組件有一點拖累。管理費用也沒有像歷史時期的幾次賣權那樣連續下降得那麼快。最後，有一點事務噪音，因為我們在配置方面加載了前端。通常，當我們進行處置時，我們會將這些收益存入 1031 帳戶，這些帳戶是計息現金帳戶，但它們賺取的利息不如 NOI 損失那麼多。這是我們遭受的暫時稀釋。因此，這對第一季到第二季的連續數字造成了一些拖累。

Just to elaborate, it's Mark. We don't expect overheads to be higher or different than our guidance range. It's just the cadence of it is a little different where, for a variety of reasons, the first and second quarter are more similar than usual. And you should expect a real decline in quarters 3 and 4. So we'll update that all in July, but we don't have any expectation that overhead is net higher. It's just the drop between the quarters is occurring between quarters 3 and 2, not between quarters 1 and 2 as has often been the case.

詳細說明一下，這是馬克。我們預計管理費用不會高於或不同於我們的指導範圍。只是節奏有點不同，由於各種原因，第一季和第二季比平常更相似。您應該預期第三季和第四季會出現真正的下降。只是季度之間的下降發生在第三季和第二季之間，而不是像通常發生在第一季和第二季之間。

And we have a question from Jamie Feldman with Wells Fargo.

我們有富國銀行傑米費爾德曼 (Jamie Feldman) 的問題。

Great. I guess just a follow-up to the 2Q number or 2Q guidance. So can you -- since it sounds like there's a lot of moving pieces, can you talk about just the core numbers? I mean what are you expecting for rents, blends, occupancy, same-store revenue in 2Q, just to maybe level set?

偉大的。我想這只是第二季數字或第二季指引的後續行動。那麼你能——因為聽起來有很多變化，你能只談談核心數字嗎？我的意思是，您對第二季的租金、混合、入住率、同店收入有何預期，只是為了達到設定的水平？

We typically don't provide that degree of guidance. But I would tell you in terms of the actual same-store kind of revenue piece, what I would tell you is that, sequentially, what you normally see between -- in same-store revenue is call it $0.02 to $0.03 -- or NOI, sorry, is call it $0.02 to $0.03 of sequential improvement in NOI between Q1 and Q2. And that's pretty much where we are on the residential side. But we're losing, call it, about $0.01 from the nonresidential piece. We're also losing about $0.01 from the overhead kind of sequential piece along with a handful of other things in the transaction activity that we mentioned. And that's why you're only seeing $0.01 improvement sequentially.

我們通常不會提供這種程度的指導。但我會告訴你，就實際的同店收入而言，我要告訴你的是，按順序，你通常看到的同店收入是 0.02 美元到 0.03 美元，或者是 NOI抱歉，我們將第一季和第第二季之間NOI 的連續改善稱為0.02 至0.03 美元。這幾乎就是我們在住宅方面的情況。但我們從非住宅部分損失了大約 0.01 美元。我們還從開銷類型的連續部分以及我們提到的交易活動中的一些其他事情中損失了大約 0.01 美元。這就是為什麼您只看到連續 0.01 美元的改進。

Keep in mind that the leasing activity that you execute in the second quarter typically has a bigger effect on revenue in the third quarter because those leases are ratably reset during the second quarter. So hopefully, that helps from a color perspective.

請記住，您在第二季執行的租賃活動通常會對第三季的收入產生更大的影響，因為這些租賃在第二季會大幅重置。希望這從色彩角度有所幫助。

Okay. Yes, that's very helpful. And then maybe thinking about your debt maturities in '25. You've got $250 million expiring, you're sitting on pretty low leverage at 4x debt-to-EBITDAre. You've got 8.25 preferreds out there. It sounds like you're slowing down the disposition pipeline. I mean what are your thoughts on just other investments, other uses of capital here? What do you think on the balance sheet side -- you probably just let things ride through year-end without any kind of meaningful changes of -- or debt pay downs or pay downs of any sort?

好的。是的，這非常有幫助。然後也許會考慮 25 年你的債務到期日。您有 2.5 億美元即將到期，您的槓桿率相當低，債務與 EBITDA 的比率為 4 倍。您有 8.25 個偏好。聽起來您正在減慢處置流程。我的意思是，您對其他投資、資本的其他用途有何看法？您對資產負債表方面有何看法——您可能只是讓事情持續到年底，而不進行任何有意義的變化——或債務償還或任何形式的償還？

Yes. As you mentioned, Jamie, the balance sheet is in phenomenal shape. I mean from an absolute leverage standpoint, it's very low. But you're also highlighting something that I think is worth noting, which is we have very little interest rate exposure because we don't have a maturity or any refinancing needs until the middle of 2025. And even when you look further out, there is a modest kind of maturity piece.

是的。正如你所提到的，傑米，資產負債表狀況非常好。我的意思是，從絕對槓桿的角度來看，它非常低。但你也強調了一些我認為值得注意的事情，那就是我們的利率風險非常小，因為我們在 2025 年中期之前沒有到期日或任何再融資需求。適度的成熟作品。

So I think when you look at use of proceeds, probably in the menu of choices, debt paydown is the last one, to be frank. And we'd be more interested on the capital allocation front, whether it's acquiring assets or otherwise, even buying back shares just from a standpoint of whatever presents a better value proposition because we don't have any maturity issues and we have very limited exposure to rates.

因此，我認為，當你考慮收益的用途時，坦白說，可能在選擇菜單中，償還債務是最後一項。我們對資本配置更感興趣，無論是收購資產還是其他，甚至只是從提供更好價值主張的角度回購股票，因為我們沒有任何成熟度問題，而且我們的風險敞口非常有限率。

And we'll take a question from John Kim with BMO Capital Markets.

我們將回答蒙特利爾銀行資本市場部約翰金 (John Kim) 的提問。

Mark, you mentioned $200 billion of dry powder, a lot of that focused in multifamily. At the same time, we have the Blackstone-AIR transaction. How do you think that's impacted pricing or will impact pricing on sales of either assets or portfolios in the market? Could pricing be more aggressive despite the recent rise in interest rates?

馬克，你提到了 2000 億美元的乾粉，其中許多都集中在多戶住宅上。同時，我們還有 Blackstone-AIR 交易。您認為這會如何影響定價或將如何影響市場上資產或投資組合銷售的定價？儘管最近利率上升，定價是否會更積極？

Yes. That's -- I'm going to pull a little bit. It's Mark, on the comment Alex just made. I think when people saw the AIRC print, there was enthusiasm. I think when people felt like that, combined with the thought that maybe rates were going to go down in the relative near term, and you had some certainty on sort of the financial markets and such, that that was a positive thing for stability and for kind of closing that bid-ask spread that's existed for a while that Alex talked about for several quarters.

是的。那就是——我要稍微拉一點。我是馬克，正在評論亞歷克斯剛剛發表的評論。我認為當人們看到 AIRC 印刷品時，他們充滿了熱情。我認為，當人們有這樣的感覺時，再加上利率可能會在相對近期內下降的想法，並且你對金融市場等有一定的確定性，這對於穩定和發展來說是一件積極的事情。

And I think when the treasury sold off, when you saw rates really, that inflation print was high, and you have a 460-plus tenure, all of a sudden that threw that all back into play again. So I would say right now, we continue to struggle to see a great deal of product offered. I think the obvious evident enthusiasm for apartments in the private space, and we hope soon in the public space more so, is powerful. But I think there's still a bit of -- a pretty big difference between seller and buyer expectations, that I think was the gap was closing a little and now I think the gap remains.

我認為，當國債被拋售時，當你真正看到利率時，通貨膨脹率很高，而且你有 460 多年的任期，突然之間，這一切又重新發揮作用。所以我現在想說的是，我們仍然很難看到提供大量產品。我認為人們對私人空間中的公寓的明顯熱情是強大的，我們希望很快在公共空間中更加如此。但我認為賣家和買家的期望之間仍然存在一些相當大的差異，我認為差距正在縮小，現在我認為差距仍然存在。

And Alex, how would you expound?

亞歷克斯，你會如何解釋？

Yes, John, this is Alex. One thing that hasn't changed, although the rate environment is confusing to many investors, is the amount of product that's delivering, particularly in the expansion markets that we're excited about. And a lot of that just isn't capitalized to be owned for the long term. I mean it was merchant built in many cases. And we're eager to pursue that. We just need to come up with pricing that makes sense in the current rate environment.

是的，約翰，這是亞歷克斯。儘管利率環境令許多投資者感到困惑，但有一件事沒有改變，那就是正在交付的產品數量，特別是在我們感到興奮的擴張市場中。其中許多都沒有資本化以供長期持有。我的意思是它在許多情況下都是由商人建造的。我們渴望實現這一目標。我們只需要提出在當前利率環境下有意義的定價。

And there's some other owners of more stable properties that also were seeing some debt challenges, and we just expect more opportunities where, as Bob has mentioned, really well poised to take advantage of them. We just need the right price given the rate environment.

還有其他一些擁有更穩定房產的業主也面臨著一些債務挑戰，我們只是期望有更多機會，正如鮑伯所提到的那樣，他們確實準備好利用這些機會。考慮到利率環境，我們只需要合適的價格。

On the rebalancing strategy, it sounds like you mentioned that pricing has slowed down those efforts a little bit. At the same time, you seem very encouraged by the political environment improving in San Francisco, Seattle and New York. Do those policy changes or anything new in data as far as net migration or any other items potentially reconsider your views on either the timing or the strategy of redeploying capital into the Sunbelt?

關於再平衡策略，聽起來您提到定價已經稍微放慢了這些努力。同時，舊金山、西雅圖和紐約政治環境的改善似乎讓您深受鼓舞。這些政策變化或淨移民或任何其他項目方面的任何新數據是否可能會重新考慮您對將資本重新部署到陽光地帶的時機或策略的看法？

Yes. That's really an outstanding question. I think the really good news here is that both sides, whether it's Governor DeSantis in Florida, whether it's Governor Newsom in California or in New York or Governor Healey up in Massachusetts, everyone's thinking about supply as a solution. Where in 2018 when all the tumult happened started on rent control with the California Ballot Initiative, it was all about price controls, which obviously are not going to improve supply. So I think it's really a positive that everyone is trying to address supply in different ways, with different levels of effectiveness. I think the industry has done a good job. I give a lot of credit to Barry Altshuler who is our lead regulatory guy on that and many other people in the industry who pushed that supply argument, and we're seeing the results of that, and you're right to recognize it.

是的。這確實是一個懸而未決的問題。我認為真正的好消息是，雙方，無論是佛羅裡達州州長德桑蒂斯，還是加利福尼亞州或紐約州州長紐瑟姆，還是馬薩諸塞州州長希利，每個人都在考慮將供應作為解決方案。 2018 年，當所有騷亂都始於加州選票倡議的租金管制時，一切都與價格管制有關，這顯然不會改善供應。因此，我認為每個人都在嘗試以不同的方式、不同程度的有效性來解​​決供應問題，這確實是一件正面的事情。我認為這個行業做得很好。我非常感謝巴里·阿特舒勒（Barry Altshuler），他是我們在這方面的首席監管人員，以及業內許多其他推動供應論點的人，我們正在看到其結果，你認識到這一點是正確的。

But I also would say that places like New York, California, continue to need to work on being an attractive place to live and for businesses to locate. They need to be able to more effectively compete against places like Texas that are more attractive than they used to be in terms of amenities to our residents, our demographic, as well as to business leaders who just want to expand their operations in places where it's less complex and less expensive to do business.

但我也想說，像紐約、加州這樣的地方，需要繼續努力成為一個有吸引力的居住地和企業定居地。他們需要能夠更有效地與像德克薩斯州這樣的地方競爭，這些地方在便利設施方面比以前對我們的居民、人口以及只想在當地擴大業務的商業領袖更具吸引力。那麼複雜，成本也更低。

So I do say we remain open. I think New York is something we'll continue to think on. Right now, our opinion is you need to have some regulatory reforms away from housing just to make public safety better in some of those places and both to sort of encourage employers to relocate or to stay located in those markets. But I definitely see this as progress for sure.

所以我確實說我們保持開放。我認為紐約是我們將繼續思考的問題。目前，我們的觀點是，需要對住房進行一些監管改革，以改善其中一些地方的公共安全，同時鼓勵雇主搬遷或留在這些市場。但我絕對認為這是進步。

And we have a question from Nick Yulico with Scotiabank.

我們有豐業銀行尼克尤利科 (Nick Yulico) 提出的問題。

This is (inaudible) on for Nick. On your expansion markets, could you share the lease rates and concessionary activity for Atlanta, Austin and Dallas in 1Q and April?

這是尼克的（聽不清楚）。關於您的擴張市場，您能否分享一下亞特蘭大、奧斯汀和達拉斯第一季和四月的租賃率和優惠活動？

Dennis, this is Michael. So in my prepared remarks, I kind of gave you some clustering around the expansion markets concession use. Right now, for us, I would kind of cluster Denver, Atlanta and Dallas together with about 25% to 30% of our applications receiving right around anywhere between 4 to 6 weeks.

丹尼斯，這是麥可。因此，在我準備好的發言中，我圍繞擴張市場特許權使用向大家提供了一些資訊。現在，對我們來說，我會將丹佛、亞特蘭大和達拉斯集中在一起，大約 25% 到 30% 的申請會在 4 到 6 週內收到。

Austin is a little bit of the outlier and it's running about 60% of our applications with almost 6 weeks of concessions. But again, we only have 3 assets in Austin, so I don't think it's kind of overly indicative of what may be happening in the broader market.

奧斯汀有點異常，它運行著我們大約 60% 的應用程序，並且有近 6 週的折扣。但同樣，我們在奧斯汀只有 3 項資產，所以我認為這並不能過度說明更廣泛的市場可能發生的情況。

I'll tell you, we've been watching the new lease-ups and the concessions that we see. And right now, they really seem to be in line with what you would expect. There's nothing like out of the norm that's running anywhere between 4 and 8 weeks across all of those markets. And that's kind of one of those positive signs for us.

我告訴你，我們一直在關注新的租賃和我們看到的讓步。現在，它們似乎確實符合您的期望。所有這些市場都沒有出現 4 到 8 週的異常情況。這對我們來說是積極的跡象之一。

Relative to the first quarter, I'll tell you, we've ticked down a little bit of our concession use. Most all of these markets have occupancies above 95% right now. So as soon as we get to that threshold, we kind of pulled back a little bit of the concessions and see what does that velocity look like. And we've had a couple of strong leasing weeks. So I think the teams are dialing it back. But we do expect concessions will remain in place in those expansion markets throughout the year because the levels of supply is going to continue to increase, which means we're most likely going to see these concessions stay. As long as they stay within the realm of reasonableness in this 4- to 8-week range on the new lease-ups, I think we're okay. That's kind of how we've modeled it.

我告訴你，相對於第一季度，我們已經減少了一點特許權的使用。目前大多數這些市場的入住率都超過 95%。因此，一旦達到這個閾值，我們就收回一點讓步，看看這個速度是什麼樣的。我們已經度過了幾週的強勁租賃期。所以我認為團隊正在收回它。但我們確實預計這些擴張市場將全年繼續享受優惠，因為供應水準將繼續增加，這意味著我們很可能會看到這些優惠繼續存在。只要新租賃的期限保持在 4 到 8 週的合理範圍內，我認為我們就可以了。這就是我們建模的方式。

Follow-up question, maybe at a higher level for Mark. You talked about this in your prepared remarks, turnovers at historic lows is a real affordability benefit for the rental product versus homeownership. Just curious if you could share any high-level thoughts on how you see this dynamic evolving in the near to medium term? Could this in theory be a durable demand and profitability tailwinds over the next cycle?

後續問題，對馬克來說可能是更高層次的問題。您在準備好的演講中談到了這一點，相對於房屋所有權而言，歷史低點的營業額對於租賃產品來說是真正的負擔能力優勢。只是好奇您是否可以分享您對這種動態在中短期內如何演變的任何高層想法？從理論上講，這是否會成為下一個週期的持久需求和獲利能力的推動力？

Yes. I think 2 of the biggest structural advantages to the rental housing business and the apartment business are what you just identified, the fact that home ownership is just tough. And that's for a lot of reasons. So many people are locked in with the real low rates on mortgages. It makes it very attractive to stay in place even if they might move or downsize. So that will slow things down in that market.

是的。我認為租賃住房業務和公寓業務的兩個最大的結構性優勢正如您剛才所指出的，即擁有住房非常困難。這有很多原因。很多人都被真正的低抵押貸款利率所束縛。即使他們可能搬家或縮小規模，留在原地也非常有吸引力。因此，這將減慢該市場的發展速度。

I think the amount of production by the homebuilders is just a lot lower than it was pre-GFC. I think the cost of ownership, including things like insurance, are significantly higher. And I think all of that together makes rental housing a lot more attractive, and that's likely to be a persistent benefit.

我認為房屋建築商的產量比全球金融危機前低很多。我認為擁有成本，包括保險等費用，要高得多。我認為所有這些加在一起使出租住房更具吸引力，而且這可能是一個持久的好處。

And embedded in that is just a lack of supply. So even though Michael just talked about some of the impacts of supply in these expansion markets for us and for people that own in the Sunbelt, that's certainly a pretty profound impact for the next couple of years. It still means that the U.S. as a whole is undersupplied in housing. And I think at 1.5 million units a year of owned and rental housing supplied, the same as the number was in 1960 for a population twice as big, you can see the opportunity there if you own like we do, 80,000 well-positioned nice units to rent in some of the higher growth parts of the country.

其中隱藏的只是供應不足。因此，儘管邁克爾剛剛談到了這些擴張市場的供應對我們和陽光地帶業主的一些影響，但這無疑對未來幾年產生了相當深遠的影響。這仍然意味著美國整體上住房供應不足。我認為，每年提供 150 萬套自有住房和租賃住房，與 1960 年人口數量的兩倍相同，如果您像我們一樣擁有 80,000 個位置優越的優質單元，您可以看到那裡的機會在該國一些成長較快的地區出租。

So I think those are huge secular tailwinds to our business and are likely to persist. And that's why, again, we want to stick with our strategy of having balance, being in the 12 best markets, these expansion markets, for 20%, 25% of NOI, and the remainder in these established markets where our higher-end resident wants to be and take advantage of the supply imbalances, and frankly, the preference that we think is going to be pretty persistent for rental housing.

因此，我認為這些對我們的業務來說是巨大的長期推動力，並且可能會持續下去。這就是為什麼我們要再次堅持我們的平衡策略，進入12 個最佳市場，這些擴張市場，佔NOI 的20%、25%，其餘的則在這些成熟市場，我們的高端居民在這些市場中佔據主導地位。

And we'll take a question from Linda Tsai with Jefferies.

我們將回答 Linda Tsai 和 Jefferies 的問題。

Where are renewals going out in May?

5月的續訂在哪裡發布？

This is Michael. So I'll just give you a sense. So renewals right now are out in the marketplace for the next 90 days, for the next 3 months. Very consistent right now, the quotes are running between 6.5% and 7%. And that gives us a lot of confidence that we expect to achieve somewhere right around that 5% on the net effective side.

這是邁克爾。所以我只是給你一個感覺。因此，現在市場上已提供未來 90 天、未來 3 個月的續約。目前非常一致，報價在 6.5% 到 7% 之間運行。這給了我們很大的信心，我們預計淨有效率將達到 5% 左右。

Thanks. And then just on bad debt, there's going to be a 30 basis, I guess, contribution. What's the cadence of like that is as you move through the year?

謝謝。然後，僅就壞帳而言，我猜就會有 30 基數的貢獻。當你度過這一年的時候，這樣的節奏又是怎麼樣的呢？

Linda, it's Bob. We would expect to start seeing improvement in the second quarter because you saw Q4 to Q1 was relatively flat. But we're seeing some of the lead indicators, as Michael mentioned, in terms of the timing of the courts and other things, indicate that we should start to see some sequential improvement in Q2. And then we would expect it to continue on that process, although it can be volatile in Q3 and Q4 such that, by the end of the year, Q4 is maybe ends at, call it, 90 basis points of total revenue. That means for the full year, you're getting that 30 basis points of improvement.

琳達，這是鮑伯。我們預計第二季將開始改善，因為您看到第四季到第一季相對持平。但正如邁克爾所提到的，我們看到一些領先指標，在法院的時間安排和其他方面，表明我們應該開始看到第二季度的一些連續改善。然後我們預計它會繼續這個過程，儘管第三季和第四季可能會出現波動，到年底，第四季可能會達到總收入的 90 個基點。這意味著您將全年獲得 30 個基點的改進。

Helpful. And then one last one. On the NYC housing laws, do you view that as more of a net benefit or a detractor for your apartments in that region?

有幫助。然後是最後一張。關於紐約市住房法，您認為這對您在該地區的公寓來說更多的是淨收益還是貶低？

Yes. I'm going to answer your question very precisely because I take it to mean impact on Equity Residential, and I'd say the impact on Equity Residential is pretty modest, pretty insignificant. That's because about 40% of our units are either called luxury units under the law, meaning the rents are at higher levels, or that we own newer buildings, buildings built in 2009 or later.

是的。我將非常準確地回答你的問題，因為我認為它意味著對股權住宅的影響，而且我想說對股權住宅的影響相當溫和，相當微不足道。這是因為我們大約 40% 的單位要么根據法律被稱為豪華單位，這意味著租金水平較高，要么我們擁有較新的建築，即 2009 年或以後建造的建築。

And for the other units, for us to get over an 8% or 10% renewal increase, which is what the law would limit, 2023 was a great year in New York, so just looking backwards, but it wasn't that great. And it would be more impactful to us in a year like late 2021 or 2022 when we were trying to recover from the pandemic and rents were going up more quickly on renewal and we were taking away concessions. That market is not that kind of market right now. So I would expect right now for it not to be terribly significant to us.

對於其他單位來說，為了讓我們獲得超過8% 或10% 的續約成長（這是法律所限制的），2023 年對紐約來說是偉大的一年，所以回顧過去，但並沒有那麼偉大。在 2021 年底或 2022 年這樣的年份，這對我們的影響會更大，當時我們正試圖從大流行中恢復過來，而且續租時租金上漲得更快，而且我們正在取消優惠。那個市場現在不是那樣的市場。所以我現在預計它對我們來說不會太重要。

And again, a great benefit, I think, in trying to encourage supply, which I noted in my remarks. I just think rent control in general does not encourage more supply into the market. So we got to work through that in New York. But I do think having some certainty here for everyone involved is a plus.

我認為，努力鼓勵供應有很大好處，我在演講中指出了這一點。我只是認為租金管制總體上並不會鼓勵更多的供應進入市場。所以我們必須在紐約解決這個問題。但我確實認為，對於每個參與其中的人來說，擁有一定的確定性是一個優勢。

And that does conclude the question-and-answer session. I'll now turn the conference back over to Mark Parrell for closing comments.

問答環節到此結束。現在我將把會議轉回馬克·帕雷爾（Mark Parrell）進行總結評論。

Thank you all for your time and your interest in Equity Residential. Have a good day.

感謝大家的寶貴時間以及對股權住宅的興趣。祝你有美好的一天。

Thank you and that does conclude today's conference.

謝謝大家，今天的會議到此結束。