住宅地產 (EQR) 2023 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good day, and welcome to the Equity Residential 1Q '23 Earnings Conference Call. Today's conference is being recorded.

美好的一天，歡迎來到 Equity Residential 1Q '23 收益電話會議。今天的會議正在錄製中。

At this time, I would like to turn the conference over to Martin McKenna. Please go ahead, sir.

此時，我想將會議轉交給 Martin McKenna。請繼續，先生。

Good morning, and thanks for joining us to discuss Equity Residential's first quarter 2023 results. Our featured speakers today are Mark Parrell, our President and CEO and Michael Manelis, our Chief Operating Officer. Bob Garechana, our Chief Financial Officer and Alex Brackenridge, our Chief Investment Officer are here with us as well for the Q&A. Our earnings release is posted in the Investors section of equityapartments.com. Please be advised that certain matters discussed during this conference call may constitute forward-looking statements within the meaning of the federal securities laws.

早上好，感謝您加入我們討論 Equity Residential 的 2023 年第一季度業績。我們今天的特邀發言人是我們的總裁兼首席執行官 Mark Parrell 和我們的首席運營官 Michael Manelis。我們的首席財務官 Bob Garechana 和我們的首席投資官 Alex Brackenridge 也和我們一起參加了問答環節。我們的收益發布發佈在 equityapartments.com 的投資者部分。請注意，本次電話會議中討論的某些事項可能構成聯邦證券法意義上的前瞻性陳述。

These forward-looking statements are subject to certain economic risks and uncertainties. The company assumes no obligation to update or supplement these statements that become untrue because of subsequent events.

這些前瞻性陳述受某些經濟風險和不確定性的影響。公司不承擔更新或補充這些因後續事件而變得不真實的聲明的義務。

Now I will turn the call over to Mark Parrell.

現在我將把電話轉給 Mark Parrell。

Thank you, Marty. Good morning, and thank you all for joining us today to discuss our first quarter 2023 results. We had a very good quarter to start the year with same-store revenue results exceeding our expectations. And while same-store expense growth was higher than we projected due in large part to California storms, that still left us with first quarter net operating income and normalized FFO better than we expected.

謝謝你，馬蒂。早上好，感謝大家今天加入我們討論我們 2023 年第一季度的業績。我們有一個非常好的季度開年，同店收入結果超出了我們的預期。雖然同店費用增長高於我們的預期，這在很大程度上是由於加利福尼亞風暴，但這仍然使我們第一季度的淨營業收入和正常化 FFO 好於我們的預期。

In a moment, Mike will take you through our first quarter operating highlights. The strength of our revenue results point to the durable nature of our business in the face of volatile economic conditions.

稍後，邁克將帶您了解我們第一季度的運營亮點。我們強勁的收入結果表明，面對動蕩的經濟狀況，我們的業務具有持久性。

We continue to see substantial demand from our affluent renter demographic and moderate levels of supply in most of our major markets, with the new news in the quarter being the rapidly improving regulatory conditions in California. Based on these continuing positive business conditions and the good prospects we see for our business going forward, during the first quarter, our board raised our common share dividend by 6% on an annualized basis. Despite headlines and layoffs, demand feels solid.

我們繼續看到來自我們大部分主要市場的富裕租戶人口的大量需求和適度的供應水平，本季度的新消息是加利福尼亞州的監管條件迅速改善。基於這些持續的積極業務狀況和我們對未來業務的良好前景，在第一季度，我們的董事會將我們的普通股股息按年化計算提高了 6%。儘管有頭條新聞和裁員，但需求仍然穩固。

The unemployment rate, particularly for the college educated, remains very low, which gives us a good feeling about the employability and earnings power of our affluent renter customer. In our portfolio, we are not seeing increases in residents downsizing their units or giving us their keys because of job loss. In terms of competition from homeownership, monthly costs and down payment requirements remain high in our markets, especially relative to rents, making renting a high-quality equity residential apartment a better value.

失業率，尤其是受過大學教育的人的失業率仍然很低，這讓我們對我們富裕的租房客戶的就業能力和收入能力有了良好的感覺。在我們的投資組合中，我們沒有看到因失業而縮減單元房或將鑰匙交給我們的居民有所增加。就房屋所有權的競爭而言，每月成本和首付要求在我們的市場中仍然很高，尤其是相對於租金而言，這使得租用優質的產權住宅公寓具有更高的價值。

Only 8% of our residents who moved out in the first quarter bought a home, and that's down from 12% in the first quarter of 2022. On the apartment supply side, as we have discussed with you on previous calls, we expect 2023 national apartment new supply to run at record levels. But we generally feel good about the level of direct competition that supply will pose to us, given our market mix and importantly, the location of supply within markets relative to our properties. In our coastal markets where we still have 95% of our NOI, we see very manageable competitive new supply in most markets, with Washington, D.C. being the exception, though D.C. is holding up remarkably well so far.

我們在第一季度搬出的居民中只有 8% 買了房，低於 2022 年第一季度的 12%。在公寓供應方面，正如我們在之前的電話會議上與您討論的那樣，我們預計 2023 年全國公寓新供應量創歷史新高。但考慮到我們的市場組合，以及重要的是，供應在市場中相對於我們物業的位置，我們總體上對供應將對我們構成的直接競爭水平感覺良好。在我們仍然擁有 95% 的 NOI 的沿海市場，我們看到大多數市場的競爭性新供應都非常易於管理，華盛頓特區是個例外，儘管華盛頓特區到目前為止表現非常好。

In the Sunbelt markets, including the Dallas-Fort Worth, Austin and Atlanta markets in which we are increasingly investing. And in Denver, we are seeing higher relative supply and more impact. We anticipated this when we acquired our Sunbelt in Denver properties, and these properties are generally tracking consistently with our underwriting.

在陽光地帶市場，包括達拉斯-沃思堡、奧斯汀和亞特蘭大市場，我們正在加大投資力度。在丹佛，我們看到了更高的相對供應和更大的影響。當我們收購我們在丹佛的 Sunbelt 物業時，我們就預料到了這一點，這些物業通常與我們的承銷情況保持一致。

As we look to expand our portfolio in these markets, we expect that these new deliveries will present buying opportunities for us. Mike will also discuss first quarter same-store expense growth, which was higher than we expected, especially in the repairs and maintenance and other on-site operating expenses lines.

當我們希望擴大我們在這些市場的投資組合時，我們預計這些新交付的產品將為我們提供購買機會。邁克還將討論第一季度同店費用增長，這高於我們的預期，尤其是在維修和保養以及其他現場運營費用方面。

We think this growth was inflated for discrete reasons that will pass, and we continue to be comfortable in attaining our full year same-store expense range in part due to lower than previously anticipated real estate tax growth, combined with modest on-site payroll expense growth. We have created at our company a culture and system that uses technology and centralization to improve the customer and employee experience and to contain our payroll costs.

我們認為這種增長因離散原因而被誇大，這些原因將會過去，我們繼續對實現全年同店費用範圍感到滿意，部分原因是房地產稅增長低於先前預期，加上現場工資支出適度生長。我們在公司創造了一種文化和系統，使用技術和集中化來改善客戶和員工體驗並控制我們的工資成本。

While the transaction markets remain unsettled, we did do a couple of deals to start the year. We sold a small collection of 25-year-old properties that totaled 247 units in Los Angeles for about $135 million in advance of the transfer tax increase. Also after the end of the quarter, we purchased a newly developed property in Atlanta for about $79 million that is currently in lease-up.

雖然交易市場仍然不穩定，但我們確實在年初做了幾筆交易。在轉讓稅增加之前，我們以大約 1.35 億美元的價格出售了一小部分擁有 25 年曆史的房產，共計 247 套洛杉磯房產。同樣在本季度結束後，我們以約 7900 萬美元的價格在亞特蘭大購買了一處新開發的房產，該房產目前處於租賃狀態。

The property is located directly on a portion of the Atlanta beltline that is being improved and paved. The beltline is a desirable amenity to our demographic and has been a catalyst for economic growth and densification across the area.

該物業直接位於正在改善和鋪設的亞特蘭大腰線的一部分上。腰線是我們人口中理想的便利設施，並且一直是該地區經濟增長和緻密化的催化劑。

The property's economics benefit from various tax credits and when fully stabilized next year, we expect to attain a 6.6% acquisition cap rate. Removing the tax benefits, which will burn off over time, we see the stabilized fully taxed acquisition cap rate at 5.7%. We also love our basis in this property, which is at $288,000 per unit, and we see that as a 15% to 20% discount to current replacement costs. Alex Brackenridge, our Chief Investment Officer, is here with us to answer your questions on the transaction market. And with that, I'll turn the call over to Mike.

該物業的經濟受益於各種稅收抵免，明年完全穩定後，我們預計收購上限率將達到 6.6%。除去稅收優惠，這將隨著時間的推移而消失，我們看到穩定的全稅收購上限率為 5.7%。我們也喜歡我們在這個房產中的基礎，它是每單元 288,000 美元，我們認為這是比當前重置成本低 15% 到 20% 的折扣。我們的首席投資官 Alex Brackenridge 將與我們一起回答您關於交易市場的問題。有了這個，我會把電話轉給邁克。

Thanks, Mark, and thanks to everyone for joining us today. This morning, I'm going to review key takeaways from our first quarter 2023 operating performance in our markets, along with same-store operating expenses. As Mark mentioned, we produced very good same-store revenue growth of 9.2% in the first quarter. These results were ahead of our expectations, primarily due to continuing improvement in delinquency along with continued healthy fundamentals in the business.

謝謝馬克，感謝大家今天加入我們。今天早上，我將回顧我們 2023 年第一季度在市場上的經營業績以及同店經營費用的主要收穫。正如馬克所提到的，我們在第一季度實現了非常好的同店收入增長 9.2%。這些結果超出了我們的預期，這主要是由於拖欠率的持續改善以及業務持續健康的基本面。

Before I get into more details on these topics, I want to emphasize that as we sit here today, the early stages of the leasing season and its setup remains strong. With year-to-date pricing trend improvement just above 3.25%, which is where we would expect it to be at this point in the year and is also consistent with expectations underpinning guidance. During the quarter, we continued to see good demand and strong resident retention that produced low turnover, stable occupancy and solid pricing power.

在我詳細介紹這些主題之前，我想強調的是，當我們今天坐在這裡時，租賃季節的早期階段及其設置仍然很強勁。今年迄今為止的價格趨勢改善略高於 3.25%，這是我們預計今年此時的水平，也與支撐指導的預期一致。本季度，我們繼續看到良好的需求和強勁的居民保留率，導致營業額低、入住率穩定和定價能力穩固。

Despite some recent negative job headlines, our average resident remains in great financial shape. With rent income ratios during the quarter for new residents continuing to hover around 20%. The Resident lease breaks due to job loss and transfer activities to reduce rent, often early indicators of resident economic threats remain below pre-pandemic levels and in line with seasonal expectations. A resilient labor market, along with a large number of young adults choosing the exciting attractive lifestyles our markets provide, along with the convenience and cost benefits of renting continues to result in application volumes that are on par with the same period last year and continue to grow as expected into the leasing season.

儘管最近有一些負面的工作頭條新聞，但我們的普通居民的財務狀況仍然很好。本季度新住戶的租金收入比率繼續徘徊在 20% 左右。由於失業和減少租金的轉移活動，居民租約中斷，通常是居民經濟威脅的早期指標仍低於大流行前水平，符合季節性預期。一個有彈性的勞動力市場，以及大量選擇我們市場提供的令人興奮的有吸引力的生活方式的年輕人，以及租房的便利性和成本效益繼續導致申請量與去年同期持平，並繼續進入租賃旺季如期增長。

Couple this with the favorable supply position and lack of single-family home ownership competition that Mark outlined, and we should be positioned for another good year. Results to date support the view we shared on our February earnings call that we expect pricing trends for this year to follow a normal, albeit slightly muted seasonal trajectory. Given the difficult comparison periods for 2022 for the back half of the year, along with the return to normal rent growth patterns, we expect that the first quarter will be our highest reported same-store revenue growth with more moderate but still above historical growth in subsequent quarters.

再加上馬克概述的有利供應狀況和缺乏獨棟房屋所有權競爭，我們應該為又一個好年做好準備。迄今為止的結果支持我們在 2 月份的財報電話會議上分享的觀點，即我們預計今年的定價趨勢將遵循正常的趨勢，儘管季節性軌跡略有減弱。鑑於 2022 年下半年的艱難比較期，以及恢復正常的租金增長模式，我們預計第一季度將是我們報告的最高同店收入增長，雖然較為溫和但仍高於歷史增長隨後的幾個季度。

While there may be some uncertainty about the economy, including increasing layoff announcements, as I said previously, we are not seeing this impact our day-to-day operations. While we acknowledge that we are generally a lagging indicator, so far so good as we head to our primary leasing season. Now let me spend a few minutes talking about our market performance. Let's start with the East Coast. New York and D.C. are both exceeding expectations, while Boston is in line. New York was by far the top performer for the first quarter with same-store revenue growth of over 19%.

正如我之前所說，雖然經濟可能存在一些不確定性，包括越來越多的裁員公告，但我們並未看到這對我們的日常運營產生影響。雖然我們承認我們通常是一個滯後指標，但到目前為止我們正處於主要租賃季節。現在讓我花幾分鐘談談我們的市場表現。讓我們從東海岸開始。紐約和哥倫比亞特區都超出預期，而波士頓符合預期。紐約是第一季度表現最好的地區，同店收入增長超過 19%。

With very limited and isolated supply, the outperformance in this market is consistent across all submarkets. Occupancy is currently 97.5% and all demand indicators continue to flash green, making this market the expected top performer for the year. Turning to D.C. Performance has thus far been a pleasant surprise with the market continuing to absorb significant new supply, while still delivering good revenue growth.

由於供應非常有限且孤立，該市場的優異表現在所有子市場中都是一致的。目前入住率為 97.5%，所有需求指標繼續呈綠色閃爍，預計該市場將成為今年表現最佳的市場。轉向 D.C. Performance 迄今為止，市場繼續吸收大量新供應，同時仍實現良好的收入增長，這令人驚喜。

Similar to New York, occupancy is strong, and so far, all submarkets remain resilient in the face of new supply. Now for the West Coast, Southern California continues to post good numbers. And most notably, we are starting to see improvement in delinquency, particularly in Los Angeles, which has the heaviest concentration. As the eviction moratorium expired, we are seeing more of our delinquent residents figuring out the best option that works for them, which is either paying rent or moving out.

與紐約類似，入住率很高，到目前為止，所有子市場在面對新供應時都保持彈性。現在對於西海岸，南加州繼續發布良好的數字。最值得注意的是，我們開始看到拖欠率有所改善，尤其是在洛杉磯，那裡的犯罪率最高。隨著驅逐暫停令到期，我們看到越來越多的拖欠房租的居民正在尋找最適合他們的選擇，要么支付租金，要么搬出去。

This activity started to pick up pace late in the first quarter, which was sooner than we expected and has continued into April. While these move-outs are pressuring physical occupancy, it will benefit our financial results later in the year as we have good demand in the market to replace these residents with new residents that will pay their rent.

這一活動在第一季度末開始加快步伐，比我們預期的要早，並一直持續到 4 月。雖然這些搬遷對實際入住率造成壓力，但這將有利於我們今年晚些時候的財務業績，因為我們在市場上有很好的需求，可以用支付租金的新居民取代這些居民。

Our remaining 2 West Coast markets of San Francisco and Seattle have posted respectable quarter-over-quarter revenue growth with good demand, but pricing power remains less than desired, especially in the urban centers of both of these markets. The San Francisco market is performing in line with our expectations, which already assumed a slow recovery. Use of concessions, mostly in the downtown submarket remains common along with limited pricing power.

我們剩下的兩個西海岸市場舊金山和西雅圖的收入環比增長可觀，需求良好，但定價能力仍低於預期，尤其是在這兩個市場的城市中心。舊金山市場的表現符合我們的預期，我們已經假設復甦緩慢。特許權的使用，主要是在市中心的子市場，以及有限的定價權仍然很普遍。

Meanwhile, the South Bay submarket is demonstrating signs of improving pricing power and stronger occupancy with less widespread concession use based on a combination of factors that includes a greater variety of stable employers who are committed to the area, coupled with just a better overall quality of life. Heading to Seattle, the overall market continues to demonstrate a lack of recovery, which wasn't completely unexpected, but is behind our forecast.

與此同時，南灣子市場顯示出定價能力提高和入住率提高的跡象，而特許經營權的使用則有所減少，這是基於多種因素的綜合影響，其中包括更多致力於該地區的穩定雇主，以及更好的整體質量生活。前往西雅圖，整個市場繼續表現出缺乏復甦，這並非完全出乎意料，但落後於我們的預測。

Similar to Downtown San Francisco, Downtown Seattle lacks pricing power with concessions being used on over 70% of our applications. The East side, which we felt may hold up a little bit better, is still outperforming downtown, but is a little more challenging than we thought based on supply pressure, layoffs and overall just less hiring in the submarket.

與舊金山市中心類似，西雅圖市中心缺乏定價權，我們超過 70% 的應用程序都在使用優惠。我們認為東區的表現可能會好一些，但仍然優於市中心，但根據供應壓力、裁員和子市場整體招聘人數的減少，比我們想像的更具挑戰性。

Amazon's May 1 mandatory return to the office date has a potential to be a catalyst for this market. Finally, in our expansion markets, which currently make up a little less than 5% of our same-store NOI, revenue performance has mostly been in line with our acquisition performance and guidance expectations. As we expected, we are being impacted by heavy new supply in Austin, Dallas and Denver.

亞馬遜 5 月 1 日強制復工日期有可能成為該市場的催化劑。最後，在我們目前占同店 NOI 不到 5% 的擴張市場中，收入表現大多符合我們的收購表現和指導預期。正如我們所料，我們正受到奧斯汀、達拉斯和丹佛大量新增供應的影響。

Meanwhile, Atlanta remained strong with double-digit revenue growth for the quarter. Now moving to expenses. We reported same-store expense growth of 7.2% in the quarter, which was slightly above our expectations. We had always expected Q1 growth to be higher than our full year guidance range, mostly because the growth during the first quarter of 2022 was so low, but also from pressure on a few specific items that outpaced positives in a few other expense categories.

與此同時，亞特蘭大保持強勁勢頭，本季度收入實現兩位數增長。現在轉向費用。我們報告本季度同店費用增長 7.2%，略高於我們的預期。我們一直預計第一季度的增長將高於我們的全年指導範圍，這主要是因為 2022 年第一季度的增長如此之低，而且還來自一些特定項目的壓力超過了其他一些費用類別的積極因素。

On the favorable side, we continue to benefit from good performance in real estate taxes and payroll, along with utilities, which were still elevated but lower than expected. On the unfavorable side, incremental cost in repairs and maintenance, other on-site costs and higher-than-anticipated insurance costs drove higher-than-expected first quarter same-store expense growth.

有利的一面是，我們繼續受益於房地產稅和工資以及公用事業的良好表現，這些表現仍然較高但低於預期。不利的一面是，維修和保養的增量成本、其他現場成本和高於預期的保險成本推動第一季度同店費用增長高於預期。

For most of these costs, we had anticipated an increase but not quite to this degree. Elevated repairs and maintenance was in large part due to increased outsourcing in the quarter much of which stemmed from our own internal teams in California, focusing on the after effects of the severe rainstorms, which resulted in incremental outside vendor assistance.

對於這些成本中的大部分，我們曾預計會增加，但並未達到這種程度。維修和保養的增加在很大程度上是由於本季度外包的增加，其中大部分來自我們在加利福尼亞州的內部團隊，重點關注嚴重暴雨的後遺症，這導致外部供應商的援助增加。

Higher legal and administrative costs related to faster progress in response to the expiration of the eviction moratorium, the benefit of which can be seen in our bad debt net. Insurance expense was higher due to tougher conditions than the already challenging environment we assumed on the renewal of our property insurance policy, which was completed during the first quarter. Despite this pressure, we remain comfortable with our existing guidance range on the full year same-store expense growth. At this point, we expect slower full year growth in real estate tax and utilities than we initially expected to offset the overages experienced in other categories in the first quarter.

與響應暫停驅逐期滿的更快進展相關的更高法律和行政成本，其好處可以在我們的壞賬網絡中看到。由於條件比我們在第一季度完成的財產保單續籤時假設的已經充滿挑戰的環境更艱難，因此保險費用更高。儘管存在這種壓力，我們仍然對現有的全年同店費用增長指導範圍感到滿意。在這一點上，我們預計房地產稅和公用事業的全年增長將低於我們最初的預期，這將抵消第一季度其他類別的超支。

Lastly, I want to spend a minute on our focus on innovation and the technology evolution of our platform. In 2023, we have a positive NOI impact of just over $10 million included in our guidance with about 2/3 of that coming on the expense side primarily in payroll and repair and maintenance. This benefit will mostly be realized in second half of the year which will contribute to lower expense growth for that period. On the revenue side we will continue to focus on other income items like WiFi, parking and pricing optimization. We will also leverage data analytics to create opportunities to expand our operating margins. Our vision is to augment pricing and renewal strategies by combining our growing data science capabilities with streamlined execution while delivering self-service solutions to our customers.

最後，我想花一點時間談談我們對平台創新和技術發展的關注。到 2023 年，我們的指導意見中包含了超過 1000 萬美元的積極 NOI 影響，其中約 2/3 來自費用方面，主要用於工資單和維修和維護。這一收益將主要在今年下半年實現，這將有助於降低該時期的費用增長。在收入方面，我們將繼續關注其他收入項目，如 WiFi、停車和定價優化。我們還將利用數據分析創造機會來擴大我們的營業利潤率。我們的願景是通過將我們不斷增長的數據科學能力與簡化的執行相結合，同時為我們的客戶提供自助服務解決方案，來增強定價和更新策略。

We will continue to leverage our mobile platform to create opportunities to share on-site employees across multiple properties. With a fully centralized and mobile operating platform, we are in a strong position to create a seamless customer experience with a platform that continues to allow us to innovate, experiment and rapidly scale what works across the portfolio.

我們將繼續利用我們的移動平台創造機會，在多個酒店共享現場員工。憑藉完全集中式和移動的操作平台，我們有能力通過一個平台創造無縫的客戶體驗，該平台繼續讓我們能夠創新、試驗和快速擴展整個產品組合的有效方法。

This uniquely positions our company to continue to create additional revenue streams while managing expenses to maintain and grow margins even in an inflationary climate. I want to give a shout out for our amazing teams across our platform for their continued dedication to their residents and focus on delivering these terrific operating results.

這使我們公司處於獨特的地位，即使在通貨膨脹的環境下，也可以繼續創造額外的收入來源，同時管理費用以維持和增加利潤率。我想為我們平台上出色的團隊大聲疾呼，感謝他們對居民的持續奉獻，並專注於提供這些出色的運營成果。

With that, we will turn the call over to the operator to begin the Q&A session. Thank you.

有了這個，我們將把電話轉給接線員開始問答環節。謝謝。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

And our first question is going to come from Eric Wolfe from Citi.

我們的第一個問題將來自花旗銀行的 Eric Wolfe。

Just looking at your same-store revenue guidance, it looks like you're expecting roughly 4% growth for the rest of the year, maybe a bit higher if you're accounting to be better trends in bad debt. But just curious whether it's sort of the majority of the drop-off happens in 2Q and then sort of stabilizes? Or if the drop-off is a little bit more ratable through the year?

看看你的同店收入指引，你似乎預計今年剩餘時間的增長率約為 4%，如果你考慮到壞賬趨勢更好，可能會更高一些。但只是好奇是否大部分下降發生在第二季度然後穩定下來？或者，如果全年下降率更高一點？

Eric, it's Bob. I would say that the drop-off is more ratable through the year because what's going on in the 2023 kind of guidance is really more about what's happened in 2022, than the kind of core trajectory of the business. So we continue to expect kind of that sequential leasing component, but you start getting into -- starting in Q2 and really into Q3. Difficult comp periods from 2022. And so you'll see Q1 as the high point and then a pretty consistent but above trend quarter-over-quarter rate of growth as you go through the back end of the year.

埃里克，是鮑勃。我想說的是，這一年的下降幅度更大，因為 2023 年的指導實際上更多地是關於 2022 年發生的事情，而不是業務的核心軌跡。因此，我們繼續期待那種順序租賃組件，但你開始進入——從第二季度開始，真正進入第三季度。從 2022 年開始的困難時期。因此，你會看到第一季度是高點，然後在今年年底時，你會看到一個相當一致但高於趨勢的季度環比增長率。

Got it. And then I think you said you expect the peak leasing season to play out as it normally would. But I also thought I heard you say that rent growth might be a bit more muted for its history. So just trying to tie those 2 statements together? I'm just trying to understand if market rents are sort of growing as they normally would during the peak leasing season.

知道了。然後我想你說過你預計租賃旺季會像往常一樣結束。但我還以為我聽到你說租金增長可能與其歷史相比更加溫和。所以只是想把這兩個陳述聯繫在一起？我只是想了解市場租金是否像租賃旺季期間的正常情況一樣增長。

Yes. Eric, this is Michael. So I think there's 2 factors. One, the way that the rents are moving, and I said, albeit a little bit muted, that's more indicative to when we think about normal rent patterns of pricing trends. We came into the year with our guidance expecting the sequential build. We just didn't think we were going to see kind of outsized momentum anywhere near the pace that we saw last year. And in terms of the setup right now, I guess I would just say the portfolio is sitting at 96.1% today. We've got great momentum. The blended rate for April sitting right at 4%, you get the sequential build and pricing trend at 3.25%, which basically positions us right where we thought we would be heading into this peak leasing season.

是的。埃里克，這是邁克爾。所以我認為有兩個因素。第一，租金變動的方式，我說，雖然有點低調，但當我們考慮定價趨勢的正常租金模式時，這更具指示性。我們帶著預期順序構建的指導進入了這一年。我們只是認為我們不會在接近去年的速度的任何地方看到那種巨大的勢頭。就目前的設置而言，我想我只想說今天的投資組合為 96.1%。我們的勢頭很好。 4 月份的混合利率正好在 4%，你得到的連續構建和定價趨勢為 3.25%，這基本上使我們處於我們認為我們將進入這個租賃旺季的位置。

Yes. Just to supplement that, Eric, it's Mark. It's the difference between guidance when we gave our guidance, we talked about the year being kind of like a normal year 2023, but maybe a little bit less of intra-period growth and what's going on so far this year. And so far this year, absolutely consistent with that expectation. So it's -- those 2 terms are being used to describe different things, guidance versus so far so good this year.

是的。作為補充，埃里克，我是馬克。這是我們給出指導意見時的指導意見之間的區別，我們談到這一年有點像正常的 2023 年，但期間內增長可能會少一些，而今年到目前為止發生了什麼。今年到目前為止，與該預期完全一致。所以它 - 這兩個術語被用來描述不同的事情，指導與今年迄今為止的好。

Our next question is going to come from John Pawlowski from Green Street.

我們的下一個問題將來自 Green Street 的 John Pawlowski。

Bob, the first question is on real estate taxes. I know this year is faring well. Just be curious, as you stare out the next few years, are you seeing any early examples or hearing any chatter that cities need to tax apartments a little bit harder to fill the hole left by office and other commercial real estate sectors that are seeing impaired valuations?

鮑勃，第一個問題是關於房地產稅的。我知道今年過得很好。只是好奇，當你凝視未來幾年時，你是否看到任何早期的例子或聽到任何喋喋不休的城市需要對公寓徵稅更難一些以填補辦公室和其他商業房地產部門留下的空缺估值？

Yes, I would say that not a lot of chatter yet because we're really just focused on 2023. And to your point, John, 2023 is actually better than what we anticipated.

是的，我會說還沒有太多的討論，因為我們真的只關注 2023 年。約翰，就你的觀點而言，2023 年實際上比我們預期的要好。

Obviously, we have that Anchor with prop 13 in California, which is helpful. As you move beyond, you always deal with that issue of revenue gaps and budgetary gaps and where people are going to get money out of what pocket. So far, we feel good about where we are, very good about where we are in 2023. And it's too early to tell -- but with these municipalities, what they'll do in 2024, what those revenue gaps will look like and where -- what pockets they'll come to get it. So, so far, I'd say too early to tell for '24.

顯然，我們在加利福尼亞州擁有 13 號提案的 Anchor，這很有幫助。當你超越時，你總是要處理收入缺口和預算缺口以及人們將從哪裡掏錢的問題。到目前為止，我們對自己的處境感覺良好，對 2023 年的處境非常好。現在下結論還為時過早——但是對於這些市政當局，他們將在 2024 年做什麼，這些收入差距會是什麼樣子以及在哪裡——他們會用什麼口袋來拿它。所以，到目前為止，我想說 24 年還為時過早。

Okay. And then last one for me. Michael, just curious if you could expand on the softness in pricing power you're seeing in Denver and your expansion markets. I know it's a small sample size of properties, but just curious how you're seeing fundamentals on the ground there relative to some softer West Coast markets.

好的。然後最後一個給我。邁克爾，只是好奇你是否可以擴大你在丹佛和你的擴張市場看到的定價能力的疲軟。我知道這是一小部分房產樣本，但只是想知道相對於一些較疲軟的西海岸市場，你如何看待當地的基本面。

Yes. I mean I think I would carve them out a little bit different. So Denver, you clearly have supply pressure sitting on top of us in the downtown submarket, but yet the suburban portfolios are actually doing pretty well. When we go into the Texas markets, we clearly are seeing just more concessions being used. You have demand, right? But when you look at across all of these expansion markets, any of the reported data, including our own portfolio, which again is a pretty small subset.

是的。我的意思是我想我會把它們雕刻得有點不同。所以丹佛，你顯然在市中心的子市場上面臨著供應壓力，但郊區的投資組合實際上表現相當不錯。當我們進入德克薩斯市場時，我們顯然看到了更多的優惠。你有需求，對吧？但是當你查看所有這些擴張市場時，任何報告的數據，包括我們自己的投資組合，這也是一個很小的子集。

It's less than 5% of the company's NOI. The occupancies tend to be running lower in these kind of expansion markets for us. The one exception I would say for us is Atlanta, seems to be doing a little bit better than even what we thought coming into the year. We just don't have quite as much supply pressure on us. So we see a little bit better pricing power than what we thought.

它不到公司 NOI 的 5%。對我們來說，在這類擴張市場中，入住率往往會下降。我要為我們說的一個例外是亞特蘭大，它似乎比我們今年的預期要好一點。我們只是沒有那麼大的供應壓力。所以我們看到的定價能力比我們想像的要好一點。

Okay. Would you expect Denver and Texas NOI growth to lag or outpace your legacy footprint over the next year or 2?

好的。您是否預計丹佛和得克薩斯州的 NOI 增長在明年或兩年內落後於或超過您的傳統足跡？

Oh, I mean I think clearly, our coastal markets right now are set up not even for this year, but just the entire setup, the demand drivers that we see, the cost of housing in those markets has really positioned them to outperform. But again, as we went into these sunbelt, we knew like what to expect for these first couple of years. So for us, the positive is that -- the large majority of our acquisitions are trending slightly ahead of how we perform in them and clearly in line with our expectations for this year.

哦，我的意思是我想得很清楚，我們現在的沿海市場甚至不是今年就建立起來的，而是整個結構，我們看到的需求驅動因素，這些市場的住房成本確實使它們能夠跑贏大市。但同樣，當我們進入這些陽光地帶時，我們知道最初幾年會發生什麼。所以對我們來說，積極的是 - 我們的大部分收購趨勢略高於我們在其中的表現，並且明顯符合我們對今年的預期。

Next question is from Steve Sakwa from Evercore ISI.

下一個問題來自 Evercore ISI 的 Steve Sakwa。

Just a couple of follow-ups on the topline growth. Michael, I know you don't necessarily guide to leasing spreads, new renewals or blend. But just any thoughts on kind of where our spreads might be for the year? And it certainly sounded like bad debt is trending better. I realize it might be a little too early, but how much of a tailwind could that be if things continue sort of on the path they're on today?

只是對收入增長的一些跟進。邁克爾，我知道你不一定會指導租賃價差、新的續約或混合。但是，關於我們今年的價差可能在哪裡有什麼想法嗎？聽起來壞賬的趨勢確實好轉了。我意識到這可能有點太早了，但如果事情繼續像今天這樣發展，那會有多大的順風？

Yes. Well, maybe I'll start, and Bob, you can kind of build a little bit on the bad debt. So in terms of just the leasing spreads and kind of guide, a lot of that had to do with where we were with our embedded growth, where we were with loss to lease, capturing the loss to lease. And I think I said, right, as we were working through the call back in February, we expected roughly 2%, 2.25% on new lease change for the full year, renewals right around 5% and blended is right around 4% for the full year. When you look at where we sit today, we're set up going into our peak leasing season, where, again, we're going to do 60% of the transaction.

是的。好吧，也許我會開始，鮑勃，你可以在壞賬上增加一點。因此，就租賃利差和指南而言，很多都與我們的嵌入式增長所處的位置有關，我們在租賃方面有損失，捕捉租賃損失。我想我說過，是的，當我們在 2 月份進行回電時，我們預計全年新租約變更約為 2%、2.25%，續約約為 5%，混合約為 4%整整一年。當你看看我們今天的位置時，我們已經準備好進入租賃高峰期，我們將再次完成 60% 的交易。

We're set up right where we thought we would be relative to the guidance. We have a little bit of pressure that we're doing more concessions in those downtown submarkets in Seattle and San Francisco. But that's kind of being offset by some of the outperformance we're seeing in the East Coast markets.

我們的設置就在我們認為相對於指導的地方。我們有一點壓力，我們正在西雅圖和舊金山的那些市中心子市場做更多的讓步。但這有點被我們在東海岸市場看到的一些出色表現所抵消。

Yes. And Steve, on the bad debt side, just to fill out the question, we are -- we certainly did better in the first quarter. We expected the first quarter to sequentially be equivalent, excluding governmental rental assistance to the fourth quarter, and we're a couple of million dollars better. And that equates to a little bit under 10 basis points on a full year basis for revenue.

是的。而史蒂夫，在壞賬方面，只是為了回答這個問題，我們 - 我們在第一季度確實做得更好。我們預計第一季度將連續相等，不包括政府對第四季度的租金援助，而且我們要好幾百萬美元。這相當於全年收入略低於 10 個基點。

That trajectory is continuing into April, so it's still early. And so we would expect to perform better overall. But keep in mind, the 90 basis points assume that we're having improvement. So it's just how much that improvement is better relative to what we embedded in guidance, but we do think there's potential upside there. To the extent we continue to see that same pace as we play out through April into May and the rest of the year.

這一軌跡將持續到四月，所以現在還早。因此，我們希望整體表現更好。但請記住，90 個基點假設我們正在取得進步。因此，相對於我們在指導中所嵌入的內容，這種改進有多少更好，但我們確實認為那裡有潛在的好處。在某種程度上，我們繼續看到從 4 月到 5 月以及今年剩餘時間的相同步伐。

And Steve, it's Mark. Just to help you with your mod a little. The governmental payments are really key to the volatility because in the first quarter of '22, we got about $9.5 million of governmental rental relief. In the second quarter, we got almost $15 million in 2022. So we need to make up that difference in terms of improved delinquency performance in the second quarter. And then you drop all the way down to a little below $6 million in the third quarter and then only $2 million in the fourth quarter of 2022. So you can see that those rental relief payments are key to understanding. So the delinquency, we think, will improve the whole year, but there could be quarters where bad debt net because it's being compared to a number with so much governmental rental relief in it is just not as good as it appears to be, and then the next quarter, you'll see it even back out.

史蒂夫，是馬克。只是為了幫助您使用您的 mod。政府支付確實是波動的關鍵，因為在 22 年第一季度，我們獲得了大約 950 萬美元的政府租金減免。在第二季度，我們在 2022 年獲得了近 1500 萬美元。因此，我們需要在第二季度改善拖欠表現方面彌補這一差異。然後你在第三季度一路下降到略低於 600 萬美元，然後在 2022 年第四季度只有 200 萬美元。所以你可以看到這些租金減免是理解的關鍵。因此，我們認為拖欠率將在全年有所改善，但可能有幾個季度出現壞賬淨額，因為與政府租金減免如此多的數字相比，它並不像看起來那麼好，然後下個季度，你甚至會看到它退出。

Okay. And then just, I guess, second question is on sort of capital deployment. I mean, you guys did raise acquisitions and dispositions to still be net zero. But I'm just curious what -- and maybe distress you're sort of seeing in the marketplace and what opportunities that might afford you thinking back to the coming out of GFC, you guys were early to buy broken condos and did the [Macro] transaction. I'm just curious if you're starting to see things percolate and -- and I guess secondly, are you seeing a big slowdown in new starts or planned starts from maybe some of the competitors and merchant builders?

好的。然後，我想，第二個問題是關於某種資本部署。我的意思是，你們確實進行了收購和處置，但仍然是淨零。但我只是很好奇什麼——也許你在市場上看到了某種痛苦，以及什麼機會可以讓你回想起 GFC 的出現，你們很早就購買了破損的公寓並做了 [Macro ] 交易。我只是很好奇你是否開始看到事情滲透——我想其次，你是否看到一些競爭對手和商業建築商的新開工或計劃開工大幅放緩？

Steve, this is Alex. Well, first of all, transaction volume is down pretty dramatically. So the closings will be down about 60-plus percent across the country. And that's pretty evenly spread among the different markets. So a lot less activity, but the sellers that do act now understand that cap rates are somewhere between 5% and 5.25%. So they're eager to transact. And that comes from really 3 different types of sellers. There's the private REITs that have the redemption request that they have to fulfill.

史蒂夫，這是亞歷克斯。好吧，首先，交易量急劇下降。因此，全國的關閉量將下降約 60% 以上。這在不同市場之間分佈相當均勻。所以活動少了很多，但現在採取行動的賣家明白上限利率在 5% 到 5.25% 之間。所以他們渴望交易。這實際上來自 3 種不同類型的賣家。私人 REITs 有他們必須履行的贖回請求。

So we're seeing some activity from them. The merchant builders aren't really capitalized to own property in the long run. They always expect it to be able to execute and get out of the deal. So a little bit of that. And gives some floating rate borrowers who have caps that are expiring that they are not able to cover. So there are sources of opportunity, but it's really been slow so far. But I would expect all 3 of those areas are more likely to pick up than not in the next 6 months.

所以我們看到了他們的一些活動。從長遠來看，商業建築商並沒有真正資本化來擁有財產。他們總是期望它能夠執行並退出交易。所以一點點。並向一些上限到期但無法支付的浮動利率借款人提供貸款。所以有機會來源，但到目前為止真的很慢。但我預計這 3 個領域在未來 6 個月內更有可能回升。

So we are excited to deploy more capital as those opportunities arise. And as you mentioned in the past, we've taken advantage of dislocation in the market. So we're certainly set up to that. But in the meantime, we're trading in and out of properties, so selling -- dispose opportunistically and taking advantage of acquisitions that we see.

因此，我們很高興在這些機會出現時部署更多資金。正如你過去提到的，我們利用了市場錯位。所以我們當然準備好了。但與此同時，我們正在買賣房產，所以出售 - 機會主義地處置並利用我們看到的收購。

In terms of starts, I mean, they're dramatically down. Already this year, what we were thinking in our markets would be, say, 110,000 starts is now looking like it might be half of that today, and I expect even more things that we thought might start will drop off the list through the rest of the year.

就啟動而言，我的意思是，它們急劇下降。今年，我們在市場上的想法是，比方說，110,000 開始現在看起來可能是今天的一半，我預計我們認為可能開始的更多事情將在剩下的時間裡從名單上消失那一年。

It's really hard to make a development work in an environment where cap rates are, as I said, 5% to 5.25%, you need a yield at least around a 6%. And you just can't get there with costs that may not be rising as high as quickly as they used to a year or so ago, but they're still going up, and obviously, financing costs are higher. So it's just really hard to make a development underwrite. So we expect to see more and more deals drop out, development deals.

正如我所說，在資本化率在 5% 到 5.25% 的環境中進行開發真的很難，你需要至少 6% 左右的收益率。而且你無法到達那裡，成本可能不會像一年左右前那樣快速上升，但它們仍在上升，而且顯然，融資成本更高。因此，開發承保真的很難。因此，我們預計會看到越來越多的交易退出，開發交易。

Yes. And Steve, it's Mark. Just to supplement that. I mean all this supply in the Sunbelt markets, Denver, places we'd like more long-term exposure, but we recognize that it's going to be a tough couple of years, that's an opportunity for us. I mean we're going to sell low performing assets in the coastal markets are assets where we have an over concentration in the sub market and kind of trade in and accepting that there might be a little near-term decline and putting it in the pro forma. But as you said, I mean, I'm very hopeful. I think we're in a really good spot where our numbers are going to show well comparatively in the costal markets, we'll exercise our usual good expense control, and then we'll turn around and deploy capital. And Alex got a big team, a very capable, experienced people out there ready to buy. So I think we'll be active as soon as those opportunities are more substantial.

是的。史蒂夫，是馬克。只是為了補充。我的意思是丹佛 Sunbelt 市場的所有這些供應，我們希望有更多的長期風險，但我們認識到這將是艱難的幾年，這對我們來說是一個機會。我的意思是，我們將在沿海市場出售表現不佳的資產，這些資產我們過度集中在子市場和某種交易中，並接受近期可能會出現小幅下跌，並將其置於有利位置形式。但正如你所說，我的意思是，我非常有希望。我認為我們處於一個非常好的位置，我們的數字將在沿海市場上表現得相對較好，我們將行使我們通常良好的費用控制，然後我們將轉身部署資本。亞歷克斯有一個大團隊，一個非常有能力、經驗豐富的人在那裡準備購買。因此，我認為一旦這些機會更加充實，我們就會積極參與。

Our next question comes from Chandni Luthra from Goldman Sachs.

我們的下一個問題來自高盛的 Chandni Luthra。

This is Chandni Luthra, Goldman. Could you guys help us understand what the collections process will look like from here? And what the magnitude and timing of recovery from past accounts could shape up to be. Like do you have to go to courts to get rents from tenants who are perhaps no longer active with you or you're just evicting now? And what kind of experience are folks witnessing with the court processes these days?

我是 Goldman 的 Chandni Luthra。你們能幫助我們了解從這裡開始的收款過程是什麼樣的嗎？以及從過去的賬戶中恢復的規模和時間可能會變成什麼樣。就像您是否必須去法院從可能不再與您一起活躍或您現在正在驅逐的租戶那裡獲得租金？這些天人們在法庭程序中見證了什麼樣的經歷？

Yes. Chandni, it's Michael. So we clearly have evictions filed right now with the courts. You are seeing a little bit of momentum pick up. I would tell you across the country right now, it feels like most of this stuff is set up at about a 6-month timeframe from the time you file to the time you actually get to your proceeding with a court date.

是的。 Chandni，是邁克爾。所以我們現在顯然已經向法院提交了驅逐申請。你看到一點點勢頭回升。我現在要在全國范圍內告訴你，感覺這些東西中的大部分都是在大約 6 個月的時間範圍內設置的，從你提交文件到你實際進入法庭日期。

But really what's happening on the collections front is twofold. So one, you have individuals that you are filing on that have a lot of past balances with you. But if they start paying you current month's rent, those past balances are somewhat protected still to date and go out into like '24. I think maybe some of them even stretch into '25. So you have a little bit of a longer tail to go after the previous balances to collect.

但實際上在收藏方面發生的事情是雙重的。因此，第一，您要歸檔的個人與您有很多過去的餘額。但是，如果他們開始向您支付當月的租金，那麼過去的餘額至今仍會受到一定程度的保護，並且會像'24'一樣消失。我想也許其中一些甚至可以延伸到 25 年。因此，在收集之前的餘額之後，您有一點更長的尾巴。

But we are starting to see this resident behavior where they're making decisions either to move out in front of any kind of eviction proceeding or actually just start paying us their current month's rent knowing that we're ultimately going to have to come to terms with what happens with this previous balance. In areas where those balances are not protected, we have sent much of that over to the collection agencies and let collection agencies start working.

但我們開始看到這種居民行為，他們要么決定在任何類型的驅逐程序之前搬出，要么實際上只是開始向我們支付他們當月的租金，因為他們知道我們最終將不得不達成協議之前的餘額會發生什麼。在這些餘額不受保護的地區，我們已將大部分餘額發送給收款機構，讓收款機構開始工作。

That's a slow process because typically, what you need to see is a lifestyle change. You need to see somebody needing to go buy a car or a home or some other thing that then causes them to come to terms that they got to clean up that balance. So I think what you should expect to see is the court system is going to continue to move at this pace of, call it, the 6-month window. And you'll see us gradually just start chipping away at this delinquency and gradually start to improve the recovery of this -- of the past balance.

這是一個緩慢的過程，因為通常情況下，您需要看到的是生活方式的改變。你需要看到有人需要去買車、買房或其他東西，然後讓他們接受必須清算餘額的條款。所以我認為你應該期待看到的是法院系統將繼續以這種速度前進，稱之為 6 個月的窗口。你會看到我們逐漸開始減少這種拖欠，並逐漸開始改善這種——過去平衡的恢復。

So then can there be a reversal to some write-offs or some reserves that you've taken in the past as we sort of think about the magnitude going forward?

那麼，當我們考慮未來的規模時，您過去採取的一些註銷或一些準備金是否可以逆轉？

Yes, certainly. To the extent that all of those historical balances that Michael just described have been written off. So to the extent that you collect them, you would see that as a current period pickup offsetting bad debt. So those collections would flow through. But as Michael mentioned, we would expect that. We don't -- haven't really incorporated much of that overall that we'd expect that to really trail.

是的，當然了。在某種程度上，邁克爾剛才描述的所有這些歷史餘額都已被註銷。因此，就您收集它們的程度而言，您會認為這是抵消壞賬的當期回升。所以這些收藏品會流過。但正如邁克爾所提到的，我們希望如此。我們沒有 - 還沒有真正融入我們期望真正落後的整體。

Got it. Very helpful. And a follow-up question is on L.A. mansion tax. So obviously, you guys sold a property ahead of that sort of tax change on April 1. But as we think about the composition of your current portfolio and what you've laid out in the past that you want basically 33% of your portfolio. It's sitting in sort of each of the coasts and then 33 in the Sunbelt. How do you think about the impact from this policy change to affect how you think about sort of selling properties in L.A. going forward and you're reaching towards that optimal mix of geography that you've laid out in the past?

知道了。很有幫助。後續問題是關於洛杉磯豪宅稅。很明顯，你們在 4 月 1 日的那種稅收變化之前賣掉了一處房產。但是當我們考慮你們當前投資組合的構成以及你們過去的佈局時，你們基本上想要佔投資組合的 33%。它位於每個海岸，然後是 33 個在陽光地帶。您如何看待這項政策變化的影響，以影響您對未來在洛杉磯出售房產的看法，以及您正在朝著您過去製定的最佳地理組合方向發展？

Well, clearly, it has an impact. It's a big move in the rate from 1.5% to 5.5% in L.A. And it was designed to raise cap the (inaudible) money for cities to build affordable housing. I think it probably had the reverse effect and that there won't be that many transactions, so they're not going to collect very much. So it may be that this gets reduced over time.

嗯，很明顯，它有影響。這是洛杉磯利率從 1.5% 升至 5.5% 的重大舉措。它旨在提高城市建設經濟適用房的（聽不清）資金上限。我認為這可能會產生相反的效果，不會有那麼多交易，所以他們不會收集太多。所以這可能會隨著時間的推移而減少。

So we don't know that it will be around forever because it doesn't seem to be well thought out public policy. But in the meantime, there are other ways -- other properties that aren't subject to the tax within California that we can transact on. And we can also consider joint ventures as an opportunity to lower exposure in a market like L.A., where selling a property may not make a lot of sense.

所以我們不知道它會永遠存在，因為它似乎沒有經過深思熟慮的公共政策。但與此同時，還有其他方式——我們可以交易在加利福尼亞州內不受稅的其他財產。我們還可以將合資企業視為降低在像洛杉磯這樣的市場中曝光率的機會，在洛杉磯出售房產可能沒有多大意義。

Yes. Chandni, it's Mark. And just to supplement Alex answer. We -- I mean, it certainly impacts the tactical way to get to the success to lower that exposure. But mean we remain committed to the goal, and we're just going to figure out different ways to do it. And again, maybe you're selling properties in Ventura County instead or in -- outside the city of San Francisco and the County of Los Angeles, and we have plenty of those, too. So we've got other levers to pull, and we'll be thoughtful about that.

是的。 Chandni，是馬克。只是為了補充亞歷克斯的回答。我們 - 我的意思是，它肯定會影響成功降低曝光率的戰術方式。但這意味著我們仍然致力於實現目標，我們只是想找出不同的方法來實現它。再一次，也許你在文圖拉縣或在舊金山市和洛杉磯縣以外的地方出售房產，我們也有很多這樣的地方。所以我們有其他的槓桿可以拉動，我們會考慮這一點。

Next question goes to Michael Goldsmith from UBS.

下一個問題來自瑞銀 (UBS) 的邁克爾·戈德史密斯 (Michael Goldsmith)。

On the concessions, have they gotten better or worse as the year has progressed? And is the gap between markets? Is it getting lighter or narrower?

在讓步方面，隨著時間的推移，它們變得更好還是更糟？市場之間的差距是什麼？是變輕了還是變窄了？

Yes. So Michael, this is Michael. So concessions for us right now are really concentrated in those urban centers of Seattle and San Francisco. I think what you saw when we turned the corner into January, and we were getting on that first -- or the fourth quarter call, I was telling you that the demand was picking up, and you saw the concessions starting to slow down across most of the markets that absolutely held true almost all of the markets now have weaned themselves off of the concessions, except what we saw in somewhere around that middle of February and into March, you really saw the concession use pick up in those downtown urban centers of Seattle and San Francisco, and they've been fairly constant.

是的。所以邁克爾，這就是邁克爾。所以現在對我們的讓步實際上集中在西雅圖和舊金山的那些城市中心。我想當我們轉入 1 月時，你看到的是我們第一次或第四季度的電話會議，我告訴你需求正在回升，你看到大多數地方的讓步開始放緩絕對適用的市場幾乎所有市場現在都已經擺脫了特許權，除了我們在 2 月中旬和 3 月左右的某個地方看到的情況，你真的看到特許權使用在那些市中心的城市中心回升西雅圖和舊金山，他們一直相當穩定。

I'll tell you the last couple of weeks, we see a little bit of hope right now that the demand is picking up. Application volume is picking up in those areas, and you could start to see us get to a place where we could start pulling them back again. But for the most part, just in the rearview mirror, they've been constant for the last couple of months for us.

我會告訴你過去幾週，我們現在看到了一點希望，因為需求正在回升。這些地區的申請量正在回升，你可能會開始看到我們到達了一個可以開始再次拉回它們的地方。但在大多數情況下，就在後視鏡中，它們在過去幾個月對我們來說一直是不變的。

That's very helpful. And then my second question is on the transaction market. Does this 5.7% stabilized cap rate on the Atlanta deal, does that represent a motivated seller or a function of the actual market? Is this where deals are going forward? And maybe just on a broader terms, like -- are you starting to see a reopening of the transaction market now that you're guiding to a modest amount of activity in the year?

這很有幫助。然後我的第二個問題是關於交易市場。亞特蘭大交易的這個 5.7% 穩定上限率是代表積極的賣家還是實際市場的功能？這是交易的發展方向嗎？也許只是在更廣泛的意義上，比如——你是否開始看到交易市場重新開放，因為你正在指導今年的活動量適中？

Michael, this is Alex. The 5.7% really isn't a reflection of market. It's more a reflection of the property being in lease-up right now. So we're taking it over the middle of a lease-up and we're going to finish it off. So we're getting compensated for doing that. So I would say, as I said earlier on the call, the rates are somewhere between 5% and 5.25% for a typical deal. And so yes, we're getting a little bit of a boost there because we're taking on a little bit of a lease-up, but that's not an indication of market. And then in terms of other opportunities, I mean, we're obviously always looking for other opportunities, and it has been pretty slow though so far.

邁克爾，這是亞歷克斯。 5.7% 確實不是市場的反映。這更多地反映了該物業目前處於租賃狀態。所以我們在租賃期間接管它，我們將完成它。所以我們這樣做會得到補償。所以我想說，正如我早些時候在電話會議上所說的那樣，典型交易的利率在 5% 到 5.25% 之間。所以是的，我們在那裡得到了一點提振，因為我們正在接受一點租賃，但這並不是市場的跡象。然後就其他機會而言，我的意思是，我們顯然一直在尋找其他機會，但到目前為止進展非常緩慢。

Our next question will come from Nick Yulico from Scotiabank.

我們的下一個問題將來自豐業銀行的 Nick Yulico。

So I want to go back to the topic of job losses. And I know you said that you're really not seeing that much of an impact. But are there any indications yet of job losses of residents impacting expected turnover? I mean, is there anything you're learning now as you're sending renewal notices out for the spring? And I guess if there's any differentiation you're seeing on this topic between tech heavier markets like San Francisco, Bay Area, Seattle, where there has been more high-profile job losses announced versus other markets of yours.

所以我想回到失業的話題。我知道你說過你真的沒有看到那麼大的影響。但是，是否有任何跡象表明居民失業會影響預期營業額？我的意思是，在發送春季的續訂通知時，您現在學到了什麼嗎？而且我想如果你在這個話題上看到舊金山、灣區、西雅圖等科技含量較高的市場之間存在任何差異，這些市場與你所在的其他市場相比宣布了更多引人注目的失業。

Yes, Nick, it's Mark. I'm going to start, and Michael is going to supplement with some market specifics. I mean, again, when we look at the general economics, professional and business services, for example, still has positive job growth. And that's an area where we do have a lot of our residents employed.

是的，尼克，是馬克。我要開始了，邁克爾將補充一些市場細節。我的意思是，再一次，當我們看一般經濟學時，例如專業和商業服務仍然有積極的就業增長。那是我們確實有很多居民就業的地區。

Finance and insurance kind of flat, information service is certainly down but not down that dramatically, and the unemployment rate remains very low, especially for the college educated. So I guess, I just want to point out again on the macro. The macro picture is very good for our company and for the markets we sit in, not just in the long term, but in the near term in the here and now. So certainly, there can be another shoe that drops, but the current numbers we're all seeing are certainly declined from the COVID recovery numbers, but they're still pretty good, and people losing jobs are finding them. And that's been the experience that looks to me like in the general economy. And I'll let Michael comment on what he's seeing in the rest of our portfolio.

金融和保險業持平，信息服務肯定下降但下降幅度不大，失業率仍然很低，尤其是對於受過大學教育的人。所以我想，我只想在宏觀上再次指出。宏觀形勢對我們公司和我們所處的市場都非常有利，不僅從長遠來看，而且在短期內也是如此。所以當然，可能會有另一隻鞋掉下來，但我們目前看到的數字肯定比 COVID 恢復數字有所下降，但它們仍然相當不錯，失業的人正在找到它們。在我看來，這就是整體經濟中的經歷。我會讓邁克爾評論他在我們其他投資組合中看到的內容。

Yes. And I think, one, you got to put into context that the reported turnover for the first quarter was really low. I mean it's not quite record little, but it's really low number. So the absolute number of move-outs that we're having is clearly below any kind of historical norms.

是的。我認為，第一，你必須考慮到第一季度報告的營業額確實很低。我的意思是它不是很少，但它確實很少。因此，我們搬遷的絕對數量顯然低於任何一種歷史標準。

And when we start drilling in and we look at those reasons for move-out, we're really not seeing anything indicative of changes. You're not seeing kind of job loss or job change pick up anything different than what you would expect for the first quarter of any given year. Specific into like a Seattle or San Francisco where you saw kind of more of the headlines and we said on the last call, we thought a lot of those layoffs were being dispersed across the country, not just heavily concentrated in those markets. I think what you've seen, we have not seen anybody really give us keys telling us they're breaking the lease or they're not renewing because they were laid off.

當我們開始深入研究並查看搬出的原因時，我們真的沒有看到任何變化的跡象。你沒有看到任何失業或工作變動與你對任何給定年份第一季度的預期有所不同。具體到西雅圖或舊金山，在那裡你看到了更多的頭條新聞，我們在上次電話會議上說，我們認為很多裁員都分散在全國各地，而不僅僅是集中在這些市場。我想你所看到的，我們還沒有看到任何人真正給我們鑰匙，告訴我們他們違反了租約，或者他們因為被解僱而沒有續約。

What we do notice in those 2 markets is the in-migration, meaning what percent of brand new residents are coming to us from outside of that MSA. The in-migration in those 2 areas is less than what you otherwise would have expected, which I think makes sense given not only the layoffs, but more importantly, like the hiring freezes that have been taking place. So you're just not seeing them draw into the market like they used to.

我們在這兩個市場中註意到的是移民，這意味著有多少全新居民從 MSA 以外來到我們這裡。這兩個地區的移民人數低於您原本的預期，我認為這不僅是因為裁員，而且更重要的是，就像已經發生的招聘凍結一樣，這是有道理的。所以你只是沒有看到他們像以前那樣進入市場。

That's very helpful. My second question is going back to Los Angeles. And it's a market that doesn't look like it has much supply, except for Downtown. And you did talk about delinquent -- dealing with delinquent units going forward, right? In some cases, it's impacting occupancy right now or at some point, it will. And I guess what I'm wondering is how you think -- how you feel comfortable with this.

這很有幫助。我的第二個問題是回到洛杉磯。這個市場看起來供應不多，除了市中心。你確實談到了拖欠——處理未來的拖欠單位，對嗎？在某些情況下，它會立即或在某個時候影響入住率。我想我想知道的是你的想法——你對此感覺如何。

It's almost like a shadow supply type of scenario where you and other landlords are finally getting tenants out in L.A. and that you feel confident that there's enough demand to fill tenants leaving?

這幾乎就像是影子供應類型的場景，您和其他房東最終在洛杉磯吸引租戶，並且您有信心有足夠的需求來填補離開的租戶？

Yes. Again, it's Mark, Nick to start, and Michael may have something to add here. But I'll start by talking about the employment base of our residents as we see it in the market. So we looked at sort of the big tech majors, and we said what percent of our residents have stated that they're employed by those big companies in Los Angeles, and that's something on the order of 3%. So I think we just have very low exposure to those sort of tech folks in the very diversified L.A. economy.

是的。同樣，首先是 Mark、Nick，Michael 可能要補充一些內容。但我首先要談談我們在市場上看到的居民的就業基礎。所以我們研究了一些大型科技專業，我們說了我們的居民中有多少百分比表示他們受僱於洛杉磯的那些大公司，大約是 3%。因此，我認為在非常多元化的洛杉磯經濟中，我們對這類技術人員的接觸非常少。

So I think L.A. just, frankly, is stronger than San Francisco Bay Area and stronger than Seattle right now where we have higher numbers of our residents employed by those sorts of people and probably bigger local economic impacts. So I think we're, in your opinion -- it's almost like we have 2 empty buildings in Los Angeles, we're delivering into same-store over the rest of this year and that we're going to fill up, and we've got the demand for it.

所以我認為，坦率地說，洛杉磯現在比舊金山灣區更強大，也比西雅圖更強大，在西雅圖，我們有更多的居民受僱於這類人，並且可能對當地經濟產生更大的影響。所以我認為我們是，在你看來——這幾乎就像我們在洛杉磯有 2 座空建築，我們將在今年餘下的時間裡運送到同一家商店，我們將填滿，我們已經有需求了。

So I think when you look at the local economy, that matches up very well with our portfolio. They're in content creation. They're in other businesses, some of which feel some pressure. But this disproportionate tech layoff, that isn't a Los Angeles phenomenon that's occurring to all over the country. In the extent there's any concentration, it's more San Francisco and Seattle than it is L.A.

所以我認為，當你觀察當地經濟時，這與我們的投資組合非常吻合。他們在創作內容。他們從事其他業務，其中一些感到有些壓力。但這種不成比例的技術裁員，並不是洛杉磯全國都在發生的現象。就集中程度而言，它更像是舊金山和西雅圖，而不是洛杉磯。

Yes, No, I wasn't specifically really wondering about tech in L.A. I just meant the issue of delinquent units coming back to market for you and other landlords, right, as you're getting people out and rates almost a supply issue in the market.

是的，不，我並不是特別想知道洛杉磯的技術問題。我只是想為你和其他房東重返市場的拖欠單位的問題，對，因為你正在讓人們離開並評價幾乎是一個供應問題市場。

Yes, but the supply is being met by people that have jobs. That was the point of my comment. It isn't -- a lot of these people are in diversified industries. So it isn't like everyone is losing their job down in Los Angeles. There's -- it's very well employed down there. A lot of people looking for housing, a lot of demand, Michael sees good demand numbers in terms of applications and the like. So that's the source of our confidence, a diversified economy in which -- like I said, us and others are effectively delivering empty buildings into that, but I'm confident that demand will need it given what we see on the ground and given the composition of employment in the market.

是的，但是有工作的人正在滿足供應。這就是我評論的重點。事實並非如此——這些人中有很多人從事多元化行業。所以並不是每個人都在洛杉磯失去工作。有 - 它在那裡使用得很好。很多人在尋找住房，有很多需求，邁克爾在申請等方面看到了很好的需求數字。所以這就是我們信心的源泉，一個多元化的經濟——就像我說的，我們和其他人正在有效地向其中提供空置建築，但我相信，鑑於我們在實地看到的情況和考慮到需求將需要它市場就業構成。

Rich Anderson from SMBC is next.

接下來是來自 SMBC 的 Rich Anderson。

So back to the bad debt question. If you were to sort of magically flip a switch and you'd be back to 40 basis points bad debt like you'd see normally, would that recovery be less than the rent relief number that you -- gathered last year about $32 million. I'm wondering how much the rent relief overcompensated you or maybe under compensate you for the bad debt that you took on? I'm just trying to understand that math.

回到壞賬問題。如果你有點神奇地撥動開關，你會像平常看到的那樣回到 40 個基點的壞賬，那麼這種恢復會低於你去年收集的約 3200 萬美元的租金減免數字。我想知道租金減免對您承擔的壞賬有多少補償過高或補償不足？我只是想理解那個數學。

Yes. So -- the government -- you're right, the governmental rental relief in '22 was $32 million. You would have to get back to, call it, 40, 50 basis points normal, that's $1 million a month of bad debt. If you look at kind of the disclosure for Q1, we were averaging like probably around -- certainly in January and February, more like [$ 4 million]. So it's like a $3 million spread -- so you'd have to get $3 million times the 12 months or so is about where you'd be at, which would be a little bit more than what the governmental rental relief would be. But you're getting there if you got back to, call it, that $1 million a month right away. That's obviously not what's happening yet. We're hopeful that, that happens and the sooner the better from a growth perspective. Does that help, Rich?

是的。所以——政府——你是對的，22 年的政府租金減免是 3200 萬美元。你將不得不回到正常的 40、50 個基點，即每月 100 萬美元的壞賬。如果你看一下第一季度的披露，我們的平均水平可能大約是——當然是在 1 月和 2 月，更像是 [400 萬美元]。所以這就像 300 萬美元的價差——所以你必須得到 300 萬美元乘以 12 個月左右的時間，這比政府的租金減免要多一點。但如果你馬上回到每月 100 萬美元，你就到達了那裡。這顯然不是正在發生的事情。我們希望，從增長的角度來看，這種情況發生得越快越好。這有幫助嗎，里奇？

Yes, yes. That's great. And then my second question is, Michael, I think you mentioned you're running a 3.25% market rent growth at this point. If memory serves, I think you said your guidance presumed 3% market rent growth for 2023. And I know you guys are trying to be careful about overpromising having not updated guidance yet, and that's coming later. But it seems to me you're ahead of the schedule from a market rent growth, particularly at this point in the year, shouldn't 3.25% barring a major disruption from some sort of recession. Shouldn't that really be a maybe a significantly bigger number as you get into the heavy leasing season and maybe that will be another driving force to you upticking your guidance, just a better market rent growth trajectory than you expected? If you could comment on that, please.

是的是的。那太棒了。然後我的第二個問題是，邁克爾，我想你提到你目前的市場租金增長了 3.25%。如果沒記錯的話，我想你說過你的指導假設 2023 年市場租金增長 3%。而且我知道你們正在努力謹慎對待尚未更新指導的過度承諾，這將在稍後發布。但在我看來，市場租金增長超出了計劃，尤其是在今年的這個時候，除非某種衰退造成重大破壞，否則不應達到 3.25%。當你進入繁忙的租賃季節時，這不應該是一個明顯更大的數字，也許這將成為你提高指導的另一個推動力，只是比你預期的更好的市場租金增長軌跡？如果你能對此發表評論，請。

Yes. I mean I think, Rich, you can look at that and say the 3.25% sequential build from January 1 is about where we peg where we should be of what a normal cycle is. The 3% for the full year, remember, you got to blend in what happens due in that first quarter and the fourth quarter. So when you put it all into the blender, could you be up at a 4%, 4.5% in the peak leasing season? Sure. And you still could average to the 3% for the full year.

是的。我的意思是，我認為，Rich，你可以看看那個，然後說從 1 月 1 日開始的 3.25% 連續構建是關於我們將正常週期固定在我們應該在哪裡的地方。全年的 3%，請記住，你必須將第一季度和第四季度到期的情況計算在內。所以當你把它全部投入攪拌機時，你能在租賃旺季以 4%、4.5% 的速度上漲嗎？當然。你仍然可以平均達到全年的 3%。

So I think I would just look at the trajectory that we see the sequential build of application volume and the sequential build of this net effective pricing trend is basically resulting in us being right on top of where we thought we would be from the blended rate growth, which is what manifests itself to the P&L.

所以我想我只想看看我們看到應用程序量的順序構建的軌跡和這種淨有效定價趨勢的順序構建基本上導致我們正處於我們認為我們將來自混合增長率的位置之上，這就是損益表本身的表現。

The next question comes from Brad Heffern from RBC Capital Markets.

下一個問題來自 RBC Capital Markets 的 Brad Heffern。

Circling back on bad debt. So it was 1.7% of revenue in the first quarter, excluding the assistance payments. But you obviously mentioned that it improved in March and April. So I'm curious if you can just compare the whatever leading-edge figure you have to that 1.7%.

回到壞賬上。因此，這是第一季度收入的 1.7%，不包括援助金。但是您顯然提到它在三月和四月有所改善。所以我很好奇你是否可以將你擁有的任何領先數字與 1.7% 進行比較。

Yes. So that would probably be -- the 1.7% would probably be something, call it, 20 basis points better, maybe a little bit more, maybe 30.

是的。所以這可能是——1.7% 可能是某種東西，可以這麼說，好 20 個基點，也許多一點，也許 30 個基點。

Okay. Perfect. And then going back to next question. You gave the 3% employed by Big Tech in LA figure. I'm curious if you have the figures handy for the Bay Area and for Seattle and if there are any other markets like, I don't know, New York that have a larger number too.

好的。完美的。然後回到下一個問題。你給出了 Big Tech 在洛杉磯僱傭的 3% 的數字。我很好奇你手邊是否有灣區和西雅圖的數據，以及是否有任何其他市場，比如我不知道的紐約也有更大的數字。

Yes. I've got some numbers for you. I don't have the East Coast, but the Bay Area is about 14%. And Seattle is about 30%.

是的。我有一些數字給你。我沒有東海岸，但灣區大約是 14%。西雅圖大約是30%。

Next question comes from Haendel Juste from Mizuho.

下一個問題來自瑞穗的Haendel Juste。

A couple for me. I guess first question is can you provide the new and renewal numbers for March specifically? And where are you sending out renewal rates today for May? And what's the loss to lease in the portfolio today?

對我來說一對。我想第一個問題是你能具體提供三月份的新號碼和續訂號碼嗎？您今天在哪裡發送 5 月份的續訂率？今天租賃投資組合的損失是多少？

Yes. Okay. So let me just start with loss to lease. So we snapshot that on the 15th of every month. By April 15, we were at 3.4%, which basically compares to, I think we are 1.5% on January 15 again, trending in line with where you would have expected it to be.

是的。好的。因此，讓我從租賃損失開始。所以我們在每個月的 15 號拍攝快照。到 4 月 15 日，我們的增長率為 3.4%，這與我認為 1 月 15 日的增長率再次為 1.5% 相比，趨勢與你預期的一致。

In terms of like the March, April, I will tell you both new lease and renewals are basically flat when you look at it sequentially. You look at the blended rate, and you can see that we're moving from a 3.8% in March to a 4.0% expected in April. So again, right in line with what we would think based on the sequential build heading into the peak leasing season.

就 3 月、4 月而言，我會告訴你，當你按順序看時，新租約和續租基本上持平。你看看混合利率，你會發現我們正在從 3 月份的 3.8% 上升到 4 月份的預期 4.0%。因此，這再次符合我們基於進入租賃旺季的順序構建的想法。

If I look forward to think about transactions that are on the books for May, so we have renewals on the books, we've got some expected move-ins for leases that just haven't started yet. Those are also trending in line with what you would expect, which you're starting to see that improvement kick into gear on new lease change and you got that consistency on renewal. In terms of the forward view on renewals, we've got quotes sitting out there for the next 90 days. I think I said in the prepared remarks, we really do expect a lot of consistency here.

如果我期待考慮 5 月份賬簿上的交易，那麼我們就會續簽賬簿，我們有一些預期的租約搬入，但還沒有開始。這些趨勢也符合您的預期，您開始看到這種改進在新的租約變更中發揮作用，並且您在續約時獲得了一致性。就續約的前瞻性觀點而言，我們有未來 90 天的報價。我想我在準備好的發言中說過，我們真的希望這裡有很多一致性。

We're renewing about 55% to 60%. We don't see any reason not to expect that in the next several months going forward. We're achieving somewhere in this 5.5% to 6% achieved renewal rate increase each month. We don't see a significant change there. We have a lot of confidence in this renewal process. My expectation is we turn to corner to the second half of the year. We do expect to see a little bit of moderation on renewals, probably more like in that 4% to 5% range, which is just a function of the comp period and what we see as we return to more of a normal pricing trend.

我們正在續約 55% 到 60%。我們看不出有任何理由不期望在接下來的幾個月裡會出現這種情況。我們正在實現每月 5.5% 到 6% 的續訂率增長。我們沒有看到那裡有重大變化。我們對這個更新過程充滿信心。我的預期是我們會在今年下半年轉入轉折點。我們確實希望看到續訂有所緩和，可能更像是在 4% 到 5% 的範圍內，這只是補償週期的函數，也是我們在回歸正常定價趨勢時所看到的。

Very helpful. Another question on, I guess, some of the charges in the quarter. It sounds like the property, legal and admin charges are tied to the eviction process, but can you comment on the other charges, the $5 million environment settlement and the $2 million data transformation project and if we should expect those in future quarters, too.

很有幫助。我想，另一個問題是關於本季度的一些費用。聽起來財產、法律和管理費用與驅逐過程有關，但您能否評論其他費用，即 500 萬美元的環境和解費和 200 萬美元的數據轉換項目，以及我們是否也應該在未來幾個季度期待這些費用。

And I'll start. Bob will help here a little. The data transformation project is something we're working on. We mentioned this before in prior calls. It's a big data analytics project with an outside vendor. You can expect a couple of million dollars more there and then it should be at an end.

我會開始。鮑勃會在這裡幫忙一點。數據轉換項目是我們正在進行的工作。我們之前在之前的電話中提到過這一點。這是一個與外部供應商合作的大數據分析項目。你可以期待那裡多出幾百萬美元，然後它應該結束了。

All of our internal employee hires and all that, that's in our normal overhead load. So continuing costs are in the run rate of the business. The sort of discrete onetime sort of events are separately categorized, as we said on the Page 24 of the release. And I don't know, Bob, if you want to comment on the risk.

我們所有的內部員工招聘等等，都是我們正常的間接費用。因此，持續成本在企業的運行率中。正如我們在新聞稿的第 24 頁上所說的那樣，離散的一次性事件類型被單獨分類。鮑勃，我不知道你是否想對風險發表評論。

Yes. The other components are adjustments to various kind of regular course litigation reserves that we made during the quarter as we got more information and adjusted our outlook. So those are all case-by-case dependent and depend on facts and circumstances at the moment.

是的。隨著我們獲得更多信息並調整我們的前景，其他組成部分是我們在本季度對各種常規課程訴訟準備金進行的調整。因此，這些都取決於具體情況，並取決於目前的事實和情況。

Got it. Got it. And one more question on cost. Is there any part of the property damage from the cost in California at the rain storms. Any part of that recoverable perhaps from insurance?

知道了。知道了。還有一個關於成本的問題。加利福尼亞州暴雨期間的費用是否有任何部分財產損失。可能從保險中收回的任何部分？

No, this all falls, it's Mark, below our deductible handouts. So this is all covered by us.

不，這一切都落空了，是馬克，低於我們的免賠額講義。所以這一切都由我們負責。

Our next question comes from Alexander Goldfarb from Piper Sandler.

我們的下一個問題來自 Piper Sandler 的 Alexander Goldfarb。

So two questions. First, on the insurance, you guys mentioned that and we've heard from others that insurance has become more challenging, expensive, especially in like Florida and Texas. So 2 parts to this. In your experience, do you would expect that the insurance provider will rapidly adjust new capital come in and that this won't really be a problem? Or do you think that it's actually could give you some opportunities to buy deals where the existing owner can't get insurance on their property and therefore, provides you guys with some opportunity to buy some of those in some of the expansion markets.

所以兩個問題。首先，關於保險，你們提到了這一點，我們從其他人那裡聽說保險變得更具挑戰性、更昂貴，尤其是在佛羅里達州和德克薩斯州。所以這個有 2 個部分。根據您的經驗，您是否認為保險公司會迅速調整新資本的流入，而這真的不是問題？或者你認為它實際上可以給你一些機會來購買現有所有者無法為其財產購買保險的交易，因此，為你們提供一些機會來購買一些擴張市場中的一些交易。

It's Mark. It's a good question. The insurance market typically has, as you suggested, when you see costs go up as much as this capacity has gone up. We don't yet see that. And the difference now is that fixed income is a real alternative. I mean folks that are reinsurers can invest in a lot of different things. And the fixed income market and maybe even these beaten down equity values may be more interesting to them.

是馬克。這是個好問題。正如您所建議的那樣，當您看到成本上升與容量上升一樣多時，保險市場通常會出現這種情況。我們還沒有看到這一點。現在的不同之處在於，固定收益是一種真正的選擇。我的意思是再保險公司可以投資很多不同的東西。固定收益市場，甚至這些被打壓的股票價值對他們來說可能更有趣。

So there's a little more competition for those reinsurance dollars that investment. So in the off-season here because we just renewed our policy program -- our property program last month, Alex, we're going to be out there looking for other capacity in other places because I'm not sure given the severity of this named windstorm risk that we're going to be able to find additional capacity for that risk. Now EQR doesn't have Florida exposure, and we don't have that risk, but it has impacted other spots in the market.

因此，對於那些投資的再保險資金，競爭會更加激烈。所以在這裡的淡季，因為我們剛剛更新了我們的政策計劃——我們上個月的房地產計劃，亞歷克斯，我們將在那裡尋找其他地方的其他容量，因為我不確定這種情況的嚴重性命名的風暴風險，我們將能夠為該風險找到額外的容量。現在 EQR 沒有佛羅里達風險，我們沒有那個風險，但它影響了市場上的其他地方。

And other folks have much larger increases than we had. Ours was about 20% on our property program. So I would say I would expect normally for the market to get bigger, I wonder this time how quickly that's going to occur, given concerns that these sort of wind storms, especially are going to be more continuous than they've been in the past and just alternatives that insurers have and reinsurers have to invest elsewhere. So hopefully, that's helpful.

其他人的增長比我們大得多。我們的財產計劃大約佔 20%。所以我想說我通常會期望市場變得更大，我想知道這一次會多快發生，因為人們擔心這種風暴，尤其是會比過去更加持續以及保險公司和再保險公司必須在其他地方投資的替代方案。希望這會有所幫助。

That is. The second question is the tax deal that you did in Atlanta, you guys have previously spoken about the 421a is here in New York and the drag it cost to earnings when those tax incentives dried up -- or sorry, matured off -- burned off. Do you see similar with the Atlanta and in general, are you looking to do more tax deals or your preferences to shy away from them except where on a case-by-case basis.

那是。第二個問題是你們在亞特蘭大所做的稅收協議，你們之前談到過紐約這裡的 421a 以及當這些稅收激勵措施枯竭——或者抱歉，成熟了——燒毀時它對收益的拖累.您是否看到與亞特蘭大的相似之處？總的來說，您是否希望進行更多的稅收交易或您的偏好以迴避它們，除非視具體情況而定。

Yes, a great question. We certainly like not to repeat things like that. You got to look at the IRR in the deal. You start with these elevated cash flows, you're getting a little bit better cap rate because of the fact that later on, you're going to be paying these higher taxes. So for us in year 8 or 9, taxes are going to go up and you're going to really have this flatten out. But it's not the order of magnitude of the 421a program. So -- and we also keep track, Alex, of these. So we're not allowing any 1 year to be overburdened.

是的，一個很好的問題。我們當然不想重複這樣的事情。您必須查看交易中的 IRR。你從這些增加的現金流開始，你會得到更好的資本化率，因為後來你將支付這些更高的稅。因此，對於我們第 8 年或第 9 年的學生來說，稅收將會增加，而你真的會平息這種情況。但這不是 421a 計劃的數量級。所以 - 亞歷克斯，我們也會跟踪這些。因此，我們不允許任何 1 年負擔過重。

So we don't feel like we're robbing Peter to pay Paul as long as we're comfortable with our IRR. So as our overall IRR, we being paid upfront, for the cash flow growth flatness that will occur 8, 9, 10 years from now. And I think we feel like we were, and we'll do deals like that.

因此，只要我們對內部收益率感到滿意，我們就不會覺得我們在搶劫彼得來支付保羅。因此，作為我們的整體內部收益率，我們會提前支付 8、9、10 年後現金流增長平穩的情況。而且我認為我們感覺就像我們一樣，我們會做那樣的交易。

And most of the new product is going to have stuff like this. So we'll also buy some stuff that's a little bit older. Alex and his team are looking at those kind of deals as well where you won't have that but if you have an older deal, remember, you're going to be putting in a lot more capital. So it's not possible to avoid some sort of cost here because if we bought something 10 years old that had fully stabilized taxes in Atlanta, it probably would require more capital, and that would affect the IRR. So we're going to look at the IRR and use that as our check on that.

大多數新產品都會有這樣的東西。所以我們也會買一些稍微舊一點的東西。亞歷克斯和他的團隊也在考慮那些你不會有的交易，但如果你有一個更早的交易，請記住，你將投入更多的資金。所以在這裡避免某種成本是不可能的，因為如果我們在亞特蘭大購買了 10 年已經完全穩定稅收的東西，它可能需要更多的資本，這會影響 IRR。因此，我們將查看內部收益率並將其用作我們對此的檢查。

And in some cases, Alex, this is Alex. As the abatement burns off or when it burns off, some of the units might go to market. So you got to pick up there, too. So it's not all downside.

在某些情況下，亞歷克斯，這是亞歷克斯。隨著減排燃燒或當它燃燒完時，一些裝置可能會上市。所以你也得去那裡接。所以這不全是缺點。

And Jamie Feldman from Wells Fargo.

還有富國銀行的傑米費爾德曼。

I guess just big picture to your comments on maybe assets come to market for investment. Your leverage tick lower in the quarter. It looks like you've been met -- this year, you plan to match fund acquisitions with dispositions. To the extent you want to put incremental capital to work beyond asset sales just because you see so much opportunity. Can you just talk about the sources of capital to do that, you're having conversations with potential JV partners? If so, what kind of capital looks interested? And then what would you be willing to do in terms of leverage? And how do you think about your liquidity position today for investment?

我想您對資產可能進入市場進行投資的評論只是大局觀。您的槓桿率在本季度下降。看起來你已經遇到了——今年，你計劃將基金收購與處置相匹配。在某種程度上，你希望將增量資本用於資產銷售以外的工作，只是因為你看到了太多的機會。你能談談這樣做的資金來源嗎，你正在與潛在的合資夥伴進行對話？如果是這樣，什麼樣的資本看起來感興趣？然後你願意在槓桿方面做什麼？您如何看待您今天的投資流動性狀況？

So first off, there isn't such a significant opportunity out there that it's worth using our precious leverage capacity or issuing a bunch of equity below what we think the intrinsic worth of the business is. So I haven't been presented yet with that issue. Talking to the Board, we're certainly willing to take leverage up. We have a stated leverage policy, Bob?

因此，首先，沒有那麼重要的機會值得利用我們寶貴的槓桿能力或發行大量低於我們認為企業內在價值的股票。所以我還沒有收到那個問題。與董事會交談，我們當然願意提高影響力。我們有一個明確的槓桿政策，鮑勃？

By 5 to 6x net debt to EBITDA.

淨債務為 EBITDA 的 5 到 6 倍。

Yes. And we're approaching 3x so into the 3x. So I would say to you that there are several billion dollars of capacity in the system to buy great assets at great prices using debt when and if we see those opportunities, and we're looking hard for those. We don't see them yet.

是的。我們正在接近 3 倍，所以進入 3 倍。所以我想告訴你，當我們看到這些機會時，如果我們看到這些機會，我們正在努力尋找這些機會，系統中有數十億美元的能力可以使用債務以高價購買大量資產。我們還沒有看到他們。

But I'd start with debt. But certainly, the JV market is another source of capital. We're very aware of that. The private market continues to love the apartment industry, even if the public markets are being buffeted a little bit by some of these cross wins. So we're out there looking for other sources of capital for sure.

但我會從債務開始。但可以肯定的是，合資市場是另一個資本來源。我們非常清楚這一點。私人市場繼續熱愛公寓行業，即使公共市場受到其中一些交叉勝利的衝擊。所以我們肯定會在外面尋找其他資金來源。

And can you talk about the returns that private market is looking for. Are those sources of capital are looking for? How are they underwriting apartments today? And what kind of trends are they looking for?

你能談談私人市場正在尋找的回報嗎？那些資金來源正在尋找？他們今天如何承保公寓？他們在尋找什麼樣的趨勢？

Generally, there -- this is Alex. Generally, they're looking for the same kind of return, a cap rate of, say, 5%, 5.25%, depending on the assets that we would see in the transactions market.

一般來說，這是亞歷克斯。一般來說，他們正在尋找相同類型的回報，比如 5%、5.25% 的上限利率，具體取決於我們在交易市場上看到的資產。

Okay. And then finally, I mean, to your comments and everyone's comments, I mean, there's so much talk about supply. When you just think about the next 6 months, 9 months or 12 months, 24 months, like when do you think the supply chain really starts to kick in based on the delivery scale?

好的。最後，我的意思是，對於你的評論和每個人的評論，我的意思是，關於供應的討論太多了。當您考慮接下來的 6 個月、9 個月或 12 個月、24 個月時，您認為供應鏈何時真正開始根據交付規模發揮作用？

Just to make sure I understand the question. When do we think supply will start going down based on deliveries? I'm sorry, didn't near the end of that.

只是為了確保我理解這個問題。我們認為供應什麼時候會開始根據交付量下降？對不起，我沒有接近尾聲。

No. I mean I know in your comments, you feel somewhat protected from supply based on where your assets are located. But clearly, a very large pipeline set to deliver over the next 2 years. When do you think that supply really starts to be felt nationally? It certainly doesn't feel (inaudible) several months.

不，我的意思是我知道在你的評論中，你覺得根據你的資產所在的位置在某種程度上不受供應的影響。但很明顯，一個非常大的管道將在未來 2 年內交付。您認為什麼時候真正開始在全國范圍內感受到供應？幾個月後肯定感覺不到（聽不清）。

I think you've got the stuff it's going to get completed. I would say you're looking more in like '25 and '26. I mean stuff you start now -- I mean, if you've got your capital stack and you're able to start, you're going to deliver. I mean, you may deliver a quarter late because of the supply chain, but you're going to deliver. So I think the starts Alex referred to, will impact '25's count will be lower and '26's count will be lower but stuff for this year and next, that's expected to deliver will deliver. And I think some of the numbers in some of the markets, some of which we're interested in, like Denver and Austin are really large.

我認為您已經掌握了將要完成的內容。我會說你更喜歡 25 年和 26 年。我的意思是你現在就開始的事情——我的意思是，如果你有足夠的資金並且你能夠開始，你就會交付。我的意思是，由於供應鏈原因，您可能會延遲四分之一交貨，但您一定會交貨。所以我認為亞歷克斯提到的開始，將影響 25 歲的人數會減少，26 歲的人數會減少，但今年和明年的東西，預計會交付。我認為某些市場的一些數字，我們感興趣的一些市場，比如丹佛和奧斯汀，確實很大。

And that's a terrific opportunity for us to buy. And to sell some of these assets where we're overallocated in some of the coastal markets. And I think that's going to be an attractive play for us.

這對我們來說是一個絕佳的購買機會。並出售我們在一些沿海市場過度配置的部分資產。我認為這對我們來說將是一場有吸引力的比賽。

And John Kim from BMO Capital Markets.

BMO Capital Markets 的 John Kim。

I realize unemployment remains pretty healthy. It seems like demand is going very well for you guys. There have been some reports of employers delaying start dates for new hires. And I'm wondering if you've seen any softness in demand as it pertains to the upcoming graduate pool?

我意識到失業率仍然很健康。看來你們的需求進展順利。有報導稱雇主推遲了新員工的入職日期。我想知道您是否看到與即將到來的畢業生群體相關的需求疲軟？

John, this is Michael. I don't -- I haven't heard that. I mean I did hear a few kind of comments from prospects around what time they're looking for. So typically, they're showing uptake in tours. And these folks were thinking more like the June, July timeframe. There's definitely a little pause in the prospects decision-making process right now around, are there going to be more layoffs, will they actually get the offer to start when they want it. But it's nothing of a material nature because, again, our sequential build of application volumes, our foot traffic year-over-year, all of those things are trending in line with what we would say is a normal seasonal pattern. So we haven't seen anything like that.

約翰，這是邁克爾。我沒有——我沒聽說過。我的意思是我確實從潛在客戶那裡聽到了一些關於他們正在尋找的時間的評論。因此，通常情況下，他們會在巡迴演出中表現出來。這些人的想法更像是 6 月、7 月的時間框架。現在在潛在客戶的決策過程中肯定會有一點停頓，是否會有更多裁員，他們是否真的會在他們想要的時候得到報價。但這與物質性質無關，因為我們連續構建的應用程序量，我們每年的客流量，所有這些都符合我們所說的正常季節性模式。所以我們還沒有看到這樣的事情。

Okay. My second question is, I think, for Bob, but on the litigation reserve that you incurred this quarter, is this something that may be ongoing? And is this related to RealPage?

好的。我認為，我的第二個問題是，對於 Bob，關於您本季度發生的訴訟準備金，這是否可能持續進行？這與 RealPage 相關嗎？

Yes, it's Mark. I'll take that. So being in a consumer-facing business, there's always some level of litigation costs. They're widely varying. There's no significant amount of RealPage related costs in there, but they are in there, but it's relatively small. The reason for that is that the case is at its early stages. And you should think about that going on for a longer period of time.

是的，是馬克。我會接受的。因此，在面向消費者的業務中，總會有一定程度的訴訟成本。它們千差萬別。那裡沒有大量與 RealPage 相關的成本，但它們在那裡，但相對較小。原因是案件處於早期階段。你應該考慮這種情況會持續更長的時間。

They aren't resolved in weeks or months. It's more like years. But again, we feel very strongly about our position. We think these claims are without merit, and we're going to defend ourselves, and we continue to feel really confident in our prospects there. So there is some small amount, but it's small. Most of that just relates to just continuing legal costs from being in a customer-facing business in an industry that has regulation.

它們不會在數週或數月內得到解決。這更像是幾年。但同樣，我們對自己的立場感到非常強烈。我們認為這些說法毫無根據，我們將為自己辯護，我們仍然對我們在那裡的前景充滿信心。所以有一些少量，但它很小。其中大部分僅與在有監管的行業中從事面向客戶的業務所產生的持續法律成本有關。

Next question comes from Adam Kramer from Morgan Stanley.

下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的 Adam Kramer。

Yes, I just wanted to ask about this California storm damage kind of cost. Look, I appreciate kind of the disclosure around 1Q impacts. Wondering just on if there will be further impacts in particular, if you could kind of quantify maybe the 2Q impacts or any other impacts going forward?

是的，我只是想問一下加州風暴造成的損失。看，我很欣賞關於第一季度影響的披露。想知道是否會有進一步的影響，特別是，如果你能量化第二季度的影響或任何其他未來的影響？

Yes. Thanks, Adam. It's Bob. Our expectation is that there won't be anything material going forward into Q2 related to these specific storms. Obviously, if there's a different event, then we don't know. But as it relates to this, there's nothing material that's moving the numbers soon for Q2.

是的。謝謝，亞當。是鮑勃。我們的預期是，與這些特定風暴相關的第二季度不會有任何實質性進展。顯然，如果有不同的事件，那麼我們就不知道了。但就此而言，沒有任何材料可以很快改變第二季度的數字。

Great. And then just on thinking through occupancy and kind of the occupancy versus renewal, renewal kind of pushing renewals kind of trade off. Look, recognizing occupancy, there's some drivers there in terms of physical occupancy, right, kind of what's happening on the on the bad debt and eviction side.

偉大的。然後只是考慮入住率和入住率與更新的關係，更新是推動更新的一種權衡。看，認識到入住率，在實際入住率方面有一些驅動因素，對，在壞賬和驅逐方面正在發生的事情。

But just thinking through how was that kind of -- that trade-off that you guys going through, right, managing occupancy versus pushing renewals? How would that conversation maybe evolved from 4Q to 1Q to today? Is there a change in kind of how you're approaching that and how much you're kind of willing or able to push renewals?

但是，只是想一想你們正在經歷的那種權衡，對吧，管理入住率與推動續約？那次談話可能會如何從 4Q 到 1Q 發展到今天？您的處理方式以及您願意或能夠推動續訂的程度是否發生了變化？

Yes. Well, I think you could see just that sequential build that we have right now and the achieved renewal increase shows that we are pushing on that front. I mean every market has a different balance act that's going on between the trade-offs of occupancy and renewals. I mean for us, the preference clearly would be to continue to renew as many residents as possible because, one, we avoid the turn cost; and two, we avoid the vacancy loss with that. So you're seeing us do a little bit more negotiation across many of the markets right now. But again, we're well positioned, which gives us that confidence to keep kind of pushing on that rate in the marketplace that not only fuels the new lease change, but also helps the future months renewals as well.

是的。好吧，我認為您可以看到我們現在擁有的順序構建，並且實現的更新增加表明我們正在推動這方面的發展。我的意思是每個市場都有不同的平衡行為，在入住率和續訂之間進行權衡。我的意思是，對我們來說，首選顯然是繼續更新盡可能多的居民，因為，第一，我們避免了周轉成本；第二，我們避免了空缺損失。所以你看到我們現在在許多市場上進行了更多的談判。但同樣，我們處於有利地位，這使我們有信心繼續推動市場上的這一利率，這不僅推動了新的租賃變更，而且還有助於未來幾個月的續約。

So I think this trade-off is constantly balanced. And honestly, we're looking at these markets every week going through that conversation now that we have the centralized renewal team, which is which way are we leaning.

所以我認為這種權衡是不斷平衡的。老實說，既然我們擁有集中的續訂團隊，我們每週都會通過對話來關注這些市場，這就是我們傾向於的方式。

And Linda Tsai from Jefferies.

還有 Jefferies 的 Linda Tsai。

I know you just emphasized IRR of individual deals, but the higher taxes and insurance occurring in the expansion markets, does this shift the attractiveness of these regions long term?

我知道你剛剛強調了個別交易的內部收益率，但擴張市場中出現的更高稅收和保險，這是否會改變這些地區的長期吸引力？

There's no riskless apartment market, and it's Mark. I'll start, and Alex may supplement it. I mean, if you're buying in some markets, you're going to have higher insurance costs, but maybe lower political risk.

沒有沒有風險的公寓市場，這是馬克。我會開始，亞歷克斯可能會補充它。我的意思是，如果你在某些市場購買，你將有更高的保險成本，但可能會降低政治風險。

And then another market, you may have slightly higher political risk and a lot better resilience and maybe a better supply picture. Our whole investment thought process of being diversified is premised on the idea of kind of accepting these risks in small doses across the whole country and staying tied to these affluent renters so it doesn't change our mind.

然後是另一個市場，你可能有更高的政治風險和更好的彈性，也許還有更好的供應情況。我們多元化的整個投資思維過程的前提是在全國范圍內小劑量地接受這些風險並與這些富裕的租房者保持聯繫，因此它不會改變我們的想法。

We just underwrite it and the deals will either work or they won't. I do think that some of the markets that have outperformed lately in the Sunbelt that have resilience challenges are really going to be pressed by these insurance costs. And frankly, maybe even the availability of financing if insurance is unavailable at some of the issue lenders are very sensitive to. But from our point of view, I mean, we're just going to run the numbers. I think these markets continue to have other subjective factors that are valuable to us. And I think they're going to remain investable the ones that we're interested in, for sure.

我們只是承保，交易要么成功，要么失敗。我確實認為，最近在陽光地帶錶現出色但面臨彈性挑戰的一些市場確實會受到這些保險成本的壓力。坦率地說，如果貸款人對某些問題非常敏感，無法獲得保險，甚至可能無法獲得融資。但從我們的角度來看，我的意思是，我們只是要運行這些數字。我認為這些市場繼續有其他對我們有價值的主觀因素。我認為他們肯定會繼續投資我們感興趣的那些。

And then just on the strength you're seeing in New York and Atlanta. Could you talk about that a little more?

然後就是你在紐約和亞特蘭大看到的力量。你能再談談嗎？

Yes. I mean -- this is Michael. I said in the prepared remarks, I mean, New York, the strength is really kind of widespread across all of the submarkets where you have good demand, you have pricing power, you have the sequential build of the demand and rents moving up with really strong kind of results, both on the retention as well as the achieved renewal increase. In Atlanta, I think right now, relative to our expectations, we feel really good. We're not having that like direct supply pressure on us.

是的。我的意思是——這是邁克爾。我在準備好的發言中說過，我的意思是，紐約的實力在所有子市場中都非常普遍，在那裡你有良好的需求，你有定價權，你有需求的順序構建和租金真正上漲強勁的結果，無論是在保留還是實現的更新增加方面。在亞特蘭大，我認為現在，相對於我們的期望，我們感覺非常好。我們沒有像直接供應壓力那樣對我們造成影響。

We're not seeing kind of heavy use of concessions in our portfolio, and we have demand. And even the deals that we're looking at, one that we have to go through the lease-up or finish the lease-up on, we got a lot of confidence in the velocity, the weekly velocity of application volume there that they're going to perform really well.

我們沒有看到在我們的投資組合中大量使用優惠，而且我們有需求。甚至我們正在考慮的交易，我們必須完成租賃或完成租賃的交易，我們對速度很有信心，他們在那裡的申請量的每週速度你會表現得很好。

Omotayo Okusanya from Credit Suisse.

來自瑞士信貸的 Omotayo Okusanya。

Yes. On just capital recycling and the updated guidance there. I get it of buying assets that higher cap rates and selling us at a lower cap rate and kind of creating value that way. But I'm curious with your implied cap at like 6% at this point, according to our math, you did make some comments earlier on about kind of development starts slowing because that development doesn't tend to allow. How do you kind of think about that on the other side of the story, which is the acquisition side, are still -- is the idea still things are not going to be able to kind of pencil out for a while? And unless you're kind of matching asset sales versus acquisitions, you don't expect to kind of be doing much out there on the acquisition side as well?

是的。關於資本回收和那裡的更新指南。我得到的是購買資本化率更高的資產並以較低的資本化率出售我們，並以這種方式創造價值。但我很好奇你此時的隱含上限約為 6%，根據我們的數學計算，你之前確實就某種發展開始放緩發表了一些評論，因為這種發展往往不允許。你如何看待故事的另一面，即收購方，仍然 - 這個想法仍然是暫時無法解決的問題嗎？除非你在某種程度上將資產出售與收購相匹配，否則你不希望在收購方面也做很多事情嗎？

It's really -- as you said -- Tayo, this is Alex, about matching the sales and the acquisition. So we keep track of that. We don't get ahead of ourselves on either side and just match them up and it's a neutral bet, but we feel like we're accomplishing our goal of diversifying the footprint.

真的——正如你所說的——Tayo，這是 Alex，關於匹配銷售和收購。所以我們會跟踪這一點。我們不會在任何一方超越自己，只是將它們匹配起來，這是一個中立的賭注，但我們覺得我們正在實現我們的足跡多樣化的目標。

And the focus from an acquisition perspective remains in your newer markets rather than some of the more established markets.

從收購的角度來看，重點仍然是你的新市場，而不是一些更成熟的市場。

Quiet primarily, but also in the sub of our established markets. And as we've talked about, being opportunistic, there may be opportunities that come up. There's more dislocation that are appealing anywhere and we would chase those.

主要是安靜，但也在我們已建立的市場中。正如我們所說的那樣，投機取巧，可能會出現機會。有更多的錯位在任何地方都有吸引力，我們會追逐那些。

Got you. Okay. That's helpful. Would there be any interest in doing something in regards to office to resi conversion from your end or just the development risk and everything is just way too great for you?

明白了好的。這很有幫助。是否有興趣做一些關於從辦公室到 resi 轉換的事情，或者只是開發風險，一切對你來說都太大了？

Well, I'm going to split it up because there's the urban conversion of these office buildings that are really giant 1-block floor plates. It's very challenging in urban locations to take a property on LaSalle Street in Chicago or in Midtown Manhattan, it spans a block and doesn't have a lot of windows relative to the total floor space, doesn't have a lot of plumbing fixtures. There's been work done by engineering firms in Boston, for example, on this. And there's relatively few of these buildings -- these large buildings that are going to work as repositioning plays. They may work if the building isn't there anymore, but they're just taking that building and some of our reengineering it is going to be tough.

好吧，我要把它分開，因為這些辦公樓的城市改造是真正巨大的 1 塊樓板。在城市地區購買位於芝加哥拉薩爾街或曼哈頓中城的房產非常具有挑戰性，它跨越一個街區，相對於總建築面積而言沒有很多窗戶，也沒有很多管道裝置。例如，波士頓的工程公司已經在這方面做了一些工作。這些建築物相對較少——這些大型建築物將作為重新定位的戲劇。如果建築物不再存在，他們可能會工作，但他們只是拿走了那棟建築物，而我們的一些重新設計將是艱難的。

In the suburbs, you may -- and this has been common in the Bay Area and in suburban Washington. You may scrape an office park and build apartments there. And we've been involved in those sort of plays, but those are different altogether because you're not reusing the building. So I think reusing an office building is tough in an urban situation just because of the need for plumbing fixtures in the unit and the need for windows that these larger office buildings just don't allow very well. But I would say, as urban owners, we'd like to see the central business district -- office districts thrive. I mean they pay taxes that support transit, that support public safety, we want those to be repositioned.

在郊區，你可能——這在灣區和華盛頓郊區很常見。你可以刮一個辦公園區並在那裡建造公寓。我們參與了這類活動，但它們完全不同，因為您沒有重複使用建築物。因此，我認為在城市環境中重用辦公樓是很困難的，因為單元中需要管道裝置，並且需要這些較大的辦公樓不允許很好地安裝窗戶。但我想說，作為城市所有者，我們希望看到中央商務區——辦公區蓬勃發展。我的意思是他們繳納支持交通、支持公共安全的稅收，我們希望重新定位這些。

It will just take more time and likely be more costly and extensive than some observers seem to think. I just don't think you can snap your finger and take a 4-year-old office building and turn it into a livable awesome apartment building in the center of whether it's Manhattan or the center of Los Angeles. So we'll kind of play wait-and-see on that, but urban repositionings for us are not likely in place.

它只是需要更多的時間，而且可能比一些觀察家認為的更昂貴和更廣泛。我只是不認為你可以打個響指，把一棟有 4 年曆史的辦公樓變成一棟位於曼哈頓中心或洛杉磯市中心的宜居公寓樓。所以我們會對此持觀望態度，但我們不太可能進行城市重新定位。

And in New York, downtown where it was done a lot. That was on the back of a tax abatement that since expired. The 421g was specifically to promote the conversion. So it doesn't happen easily and it does need -- it generally does need public policy support.

而在紐約市中心，它做得很多。那是在一項已經過期的減稅政策的支持下進行的。 421g是專門用來促進轉化的。所以它不會輕易發生，而且確實需要——它通常確實需要公共政策支持。

And our next question comes from Josh Dennerlein from Bank of America.

我們的下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Josh Dennerlein。

I just wanted to touch base on the new lease change in April relative to 1Q. It looks like it kind of stepped up 30 basis points. How does that compare to kind of the typical acceleration in April versus 1Q?

我只想談談 4 月份相對於第一季度的新租約變更。看起來它有點上升了 30 個基點。這與 4 月份與 1 季度的典型加速相比如何？

I don't know if I looked historically back, I will tell you it's sitting right on top of what we modeled at the beginning of the year, which is what we would say more like a 2019, 2018 kind of curve and expectation. Some of this just has to do with the timing of who moved out? What was their previous lease? So when I look at the 30 basis points growth, I would just tell you any time you look at these statistics or these metrics on such a short time period of time, it does create some volatility with it. So we tend to look at this over the longer stretch. And right now, I've said this a couple of that, we're sitting right where we kind of modeled for the year and write what we would expect based on just the normal sequential build.

我不知道我是否回顧歷史，我會告訴你它就在我們年初建模的基礎上，這更像是 2019 年、2018 年的曲線和預期。其中一些只與誰搬出的時間有關？他們之前的租約是什麼？因此，當我看到 30 個基點的增長時，我只想告訴你，只要你在這麼短的時間內查看這些統計數據或這些指標，它確實會產生一些波動。所以我們傾向於從長遠來看這個問題。現在，我已經說過了其中的一些，我們正坐在我們為這一年建模的地方，並根據正常的順序構建編寫我們期望的內容。

Okay. It sounds like concessions use picked up in March and April in Yale in San Francisco. If you stripped out those 2 markets, how is kind of new lease rate trending?

好的。這聽起來像是舊金山耶魯大學 3 月和 4 月的特許權使用。如果去掉這兩個市場，新租賃率的趨勢如何？

I think the impact on the overall portfolio was like 20 or 30 basis points on the net effective, like new lease change. So if you just pulled out those 2 markets with the heavy concession use, I think that was what the impact was.

我認為對整體投資組合的影響大約是淨有效的 20 或 30 個基點，比如新的租賃變更。因此，如果你只是退出那些使用大量特許權的 2 個市場，我認為這就是影響所在。

Okay. And then just digging down into same-store expenses, I don't think we've touched on the other on-site operating expenses on the call. I think that's where kind of people kind of use flow through for the evictions. What's kind of the expectation in that line item going into 2Q, just given the move-outs?

好的。然後只是深入研究同店費用，我認為我們沒有觸及電話中的其他現場運營費用。我認為這就是人們為了驅逐而使用流經的地方。考慮到搬遷，對該項目進入第二季度的期望是什麼？

Yes. Josh, it's Bob. Our expectation is that, that could be pretty bumpy because -- if you think about the expense, the expense is really in advance, oftentimes is in advance of the actual move-out. So it depends on how quickly and how fast the cases get filed, which we've made a good amount of progress faster than what we thought in the first quarter.

是的。喬希，是鮑勃。我們的預期是，這可能會非常坎坷，因為 - 如果你考慮費用，費用確實是提前的，通常是在實際搬遷之前。因此，這取決於案件提交的速度和速度，我們在第一季度取得的進展比我們想像的要快得多。

We'll have some go into the second quarter. That line item is normally a line item that barely grows for us. And so it will be bumpy because of this elevated activity, but it will be lumpy. So just expect it to be kind of grow above trend relative to history and be lumpy quarter-to-quarter, hopefully tailing off as we get to the back end of the year.

我們將進入第二季度。該訂單項通常是對我們來說幾乎沒有增長的訂單項。因此，由於這種活動的增加，它會變得崎嶇不平，但它會是崎嶇不平的。因此，預計它相對於歷史的增長會高於趨勢，並且每個季度都會出現波動，希望在我們到今年年底時逐漸減少。

And there's no further questions in the queue. I'll turn the call back over to Mark for additional and closing remarks. Please go ahead.

隊列中沒有其他問題了。我會將電話轉回給 Mark，以獲取更多和結束語。請繼續。

All right. Well, thank you all for your time on the call today and for your interest in Equity Residential. Good day.

好的。好吧，感謝大家今天抽出時間參加電話會議，感謝大家對 Equity Residential 的關注。再會。

Everyone else has left the call. This concludes today's call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.

其他人都離開了電話。今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連接。