Draftkings Inc (DKNG) 2023 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good day, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the DraftKings Q3 2023 Earnings Call. (Operator Instructions) Please be advised today's conference is being recorded.

美好的一天，感謝您的支持。歡迎參加 DraftKings 2023 年第三季財報電話會議。 （操作員指示）請注意，今天的會議正在錄製中。

I would now like to hand the conference over to your speaker today, Stanton Dodge, Chief Legal Officer. Please go ahead.

現在，我想將會議交給今天的發言人、首席法律官 Stanton Dodge。請繼續。

Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us today. Certain statements we make during this call may constitute forward-looking statements that are subject to risks, uncertainties and other factors as discussed further in our SEC filings that could cause our actual results to differ materially from our historical results or from our forecast. We assume no responsibility to update forward-looking statements other than as required by law.

大家早安，感謝您今天加入我們。我們在本次電話會議中所做的某些聲明可能構成前瞻性聲明，這些聲明受到風險、不確定性和其他因素的影響，如我們在SEC 文件中進一步討論的，這些因素可能導致我們的實際結果與我們的歷史結果或我們的預測有重大差異。除法律要求外，我們不承擔更新前瞻性陳述的責任。

During this call, management will also discuss certain non-GAAP financial measures that we believe may be useful in evaluating DraftKings' operating performance. These measures should not be considered in isolation or as a substitute for DraftKings' financial results prepared in accordance with GAAP. Reconciliations of these non-GAAP measures to the most directly comparable GAAP measures are available in our earnings release and presentation, which can be found on our website and in our quarterly report on Form 10-Q filed with the SEC.

在這次電話會議中，管理階層還將討論某些非公認會計準則財務指標，我們認為這些指標可能有助於評估 DraftKings 的營運表現。這些措施不應被孤立地考慮，也不應取代 DraftKings 根據 GAAP 編制的財務業績。這些非 GAAP 衡量標準與最直接可比較的 GAAP 衡量標準的對帳可在我們的收益發布和演示中找到，這些內容可以在我們的網站和向 SEC 提交的 10-Q 表格季度報告中找到。

Hosting the call today, we have Jason Robins, Co-Founder and Chief Executive Officer of DraftKings, who will share some opening remarks and an update on our business; and Jason Park, Chief Financial Officer of DraftKings, who will provide a review of our financials. We will then open the line to questions.

今天主持電話會議的是 DraftKings 聯合創始人兼首席執行官 Jason Robins，他將分享一些開場白和我們業務的最新情況；以及 DraftKings 財務長 Jason Park，他將對我們的財務狀況進行審查。然後我們將開放提問熱線。

I will now turn the call over to Jason Robins.

我現在將把電話轉給傑森羅賓斯。

Good morning, and thank you all for joining. The first 3 quarters of 2023 have been outstanding for DraftKings. We have made thoughtful investments in our product throughout the year and are winning with our customers, and our team executed tremendously around the start of NFL and college football season. Importantly, we remain focused on our core value drivers, acquiring customers efficiently, retaining and monetizing our existing customers, entering new jurisdictions and building an efficient and scaled organization.

早安，感謝大家的加入。 2023 年前 3 季對於 DraftKings 來說表現出色。我們全年對我們的產品進行了深思熟慮的投資，並贏得了客戶的青睞，我們的團隊在 NFL 和大學橄欖球賽季開始時表現出色。重要的是，我們仍然專注於我們的核心價值驅動因素，有效地獲取客戶，保留現有客戶並從中獲利，進入新的司法管轄區並建立一個高效且規模化的組織。

I'm pleased to share that this strong execution and focus resulted in another excellent quarter. Revenue and adjusted EBITDA exceeded our expectations, and our momentum continued into the fourth quarter with the start of the basketball and hockey seasons. We are raising our expectations for fiscal year 2023 and introducing initial guidance for fiscal year 2024.

我很高興與大家分享，這種強大的執行力和專注力帶來了另一個出色的季度。收入和調整後的 EBITDA 超出了我們的預期，隨著籃球和曲棍球賽季的開始，我們的勢頭持續到第四季度。我們上調了對 2023 財年的預期，並推出了 2024 財年的初步指引。

In 2024, we expect revenue of $4.5 billion to $4.8 billion and positive adjusted EBITDA of $350 million to $450 million. We also expect to generate meaningfully positive free cash flow in fiscal year 2024. As we look back on the third quarter in 2023, here are our key takeaways.

到 2024 年，我們預計營收為 45 億美元至 48 億美元，調整後 EBITDA 為 3.5 億美元至 4.5 億美元。我們也預計在 2024 財年將產生有意義的正自由現金流。當我們回顧 2023 年第三季時，以下是我們的主要收穫。

First, we are winning. Our revenue in the quarter increased 57% year-over-year, and we achieved #1 combined OSB and iGaming gross gaming revenue share in the U.S. We've efficiently added over 1,000 basis points of combined OSB and iGaming shares since the second quarter of 2022, which we are very proud of.

首先，我們正在獲勝。我們本季的營收年增 57%，我們的 OSB 和 iGaming 總博弈營收份額在美國排名第一。自第二季以來，我們的 OSB 和 iGaming 總營收份額有效增加了 1,000 多個基點。2022 年，我們感到非常自豪。

Second, our investments in product and technology are paying off. We have created what we believe is the strongest product in the industry and are seeing overall engagement on our app and structural hold percentage continue to increase. Importantly, we have a clear road map to extend our product advantage over the coming years.

其次，我們在產品和技術方面的投資正在獲得回報。我們已經創建了我們認為是業內最強大的產品，並且我們的應用程式的整體參與度和結構保留百分比持續增加。重要的是，我們有一個清晰的路線圖，可以在未來幾年擴大我們的產品優勢。

Third, our older states are generating significant contribution profit, and newer states are generating positive contribution profit faster than previous states.

第三，我們的老州正在產生顯著的貢獻利潤，而新州正在比以前的州更快地產生正貢獻利潤。

Fourth, we expect attractive adjusted EBITDA flow-through percentage on incremental revenue as we believe our organization is largely at scale and therefore, has a long runway of margin improvement.

第四，我們預期調整後的 EBITDA 流通百分比在增量收入中具有吸引力，因為我們相信我們的組織已基本形成規模，因此利潤率改善還有很長的路要走。

Finally, the best is yet to come. We are excited for the future and look forward to presenting our latest views on the U.S. opportunity, sources of competitive differentiation, core business drivers, including additional details on unit economics and our multiyear financial outlook at our Investor Day on November 14.

最後，最好的尚未到來。我們對未來感到興奮，並期待在11 月14 日的投資者日上展示我們對美國機會、競爭差異化來源、核心業務驅動因素的最新觀點，包括單位經濟效益的更多細節和我們的多年財務展望。

With that, I will turn it over to Jason Park.

這樣，我就把它交給傑森帕克。

Thank you, Jason. I'll hit the highlights, including our very strong third quarter performance, increased 2023 guidance and our initial expectations for 2024. Please note that all income statement measures discussed except for revenue, are on a non-GAAP adjusted EBITDA basis.

謝謝你，傑森。我將重點介紹，包括我們非常強勁的第三季度業績、上調的2023 年指導以及我們對2024 年的初步預期。請注意，除收入外，討論的所有損益表指標均基於非GAAP 調整後EBITDA 基礎。

As Jason mentioned, the organization is executing very well, and that is showing up in our results. We achieved $790 million of revenue in the quarter, which is 57% higher than our third quarter 2022 revenue, and our adjusted EBITDA of negative $153 million improved by $111 million on a year-over-year basis.

正如傑森所提到的，該組織執行得非常好，這也反映在我們的結果中。我們本季實現了 7.9 億美元的收入，比 2022 年第三季的營收高出 57%，調整後的 EBITDA 為負 1.53 億美元，年比增加了 1.11 億美元。

Customer retention and engagement far exceeded our expectations as customers enjoyed our live same game parlay offering as well as our live and player prop markets. MLB was a bright spot throughout the third quarter, and we successfully transitioned many of those customers into the football season.

客戶保留率和參與度遠遠超出了我們的預期，因為客戶喜歡我們的現場同場遊戲連贏產品以及我們的現場和玩家道具市場。 MLB 是整個第三季的一個亮點，我們成功地將其中許多客戶轉移到了橄欖球賽季。

Customer acquisition was also healthy and exceeded expectations. For example, we have already acquired more than 5% of the adult population in Kentucky following the launch of our Sportsbook product in that state on September 28. Structural hold was above 9.5% during the quarter and well ahead of expectations as we continue to improve our parlay mix and optimize our trading capabilities.

客戶獲取也很健康並且超出了預期。例如，自9 月28 日在肯塔基州推出體育博彩產品後，我們已經涵蓋了肯塔基州超過5% 的成年人口。本季結構性持有率超過9.5%，隨著我們不斷改進，該比例遠遠超出預期我們的連本帶利組合併優化我們的交易能力。

Our actual Sportsbook hold percentage was approximately 9%, inclusive of customer-friendly sport outcomes, primarily in college football and the NFL. Promotional reinvestment as a percentage of GGR outperformed our expectations due to stronger-than-anticipated retention of existing customers, which resulted in a slightly higher mix of existing customers versus new customers. Promotions as a percentage of GGR continue to improve on a year-over-year basis for our OSB and iGaming states.

我們的體育博彩實際持有比例約為 9%，其中包括對客戶友好的體育賽事結果，主要是大學橄欖球和 NFL。由於現有客戶的保留率強於預期，促銷再投資佔總收入的百分比超出了我們的預期，這導致現有客戶與新客戶的比例略高。在我們的 OSB 和 iGaming 州，促銷佔 ​​GGR 的百分比繼續逐年提高。

Our adjusted gross margin was in line with expectations and increased almost 300 basis points year-over-year. Strong handle growth combined with improving structural sportsbook hold rate and better promotional reinvestment for OSB & iGaming contributed to higher adjusted gross margin. External marketing and fixed expenses were consistent with our plans as we executed our football season kickoff and continue to exert discipline against our compensation expenses and vendor-related costs.

我們調整後的毛利率符合預期，較去年同期成長近 300 個基點。強勁的手把成長加上結構性運動博彩持有率的提高以及 OSB 和 iGaming 更好的促銷再投資，推動了調整後毛利率的提高。當我們執行足球賽季開球時，外部行銷和固定費用與我們的計劃一致，並繼續對我們的補償費用和供應商相關成本實施紀律。

We're very pleased with our results in our more mature OSB and iGaming state. In the states that launched from 2018 through 2021, we continue to drive very strong handle and revenue growth year-over-year with a corresponding improvement in adjusted gross margin rate, while our external marketing costs decreased at a double-digit rate.

我們對我們在更成熟的 OSB 和 iGaming 狀態下所取得的成果感到非常滿意。在 2018 年至 2021 年推出的州中，我們繼續推動非常強勁的處理量和收入同比增長，調整後毛利率也相應提高，同時我們的外部營銷成本以兩位數的速度下降。

Our strong third quarter results and our visibility into continued improvement have enabled us to significantly raise our expectations for 2023 revenue and adjusted EBITDA. We are improving our full year 2023 revenue guidance range to $3.67 billion to $3.72 billion or by $195 million at the midpoint. We are also improving our full year 2023 adjusted EBITDA guidance range to negative $95 million to negative $115 million or by $100 million at the midpoint.

我們強勁的第三季業績以及對持續改善的可見性使我們能夠大幅提高對 2023 年收入和調整後 EBITDA 的預期。我們正在將 2023 年全年收入指引範圍提高至 36.7 億美元至 37.2 億美元，中間值提高 1.95 億美元。我們也將 2023 年全年調整後 EBITDA 指引範圍提高至負 9,500 萬美元至負 1.15 億美元，或中點提高 1 億美元。

The bridge from the 2023 revenue and adjusted EBITDA guidance that we shared in August to our 2023 guidance as of today include stronger customer retention, acquisition and engagement and structural sportsbook hold improvement, partially offset by customer-friendly sport outcomes in the third quarter and our expected launch in May. You can see the details of the bridge in the earnings presentation we posted to our website.

從我們8 月分享的2023 年收入和調整後EBITDA 指導到今天的2023 年指導之間的橋樑包括更強的客戶保留、收購和參與以及結構性體育博彩持有量的改善，部分被第三季度客戶友好的體育成果和我們的業績所抵消。預計五月推出。您可以在我們發佈到我們網站上的收益演示中查看橋樑的詳細資訊。

In terms of our full year, we are increasing our 2023 adjusted gross margin rate guidance to 43.5% to 45%. We now expect contribution profit, which we define as adjusted gross profit less external marketing to approach $800 million in fiscal year 2023. We continue to expect fixed cost to grow less than 10% and external marketing to be consistent with prior guidance even when including our investment in May.

就全年而言，我們將 2023 年調整後毛利率指引提高至 43.5% 至 45%。我們現在預計貢獻利潤（我們將其定義為調整後毛利減去外部行銷）將在2023 財年接近8 億美元。我們仍然預計固定成本成長將低於10%，外部行銷將與先前的指導維持一致，即使包括我們的收入5月投資。

With regard to our balance sheet, we ended the second quarter with $1.1 billion of cash and now plan to end the year with more than $1.2 billion of cash. As a reminder, we expect approximately $120 million of capital expenditures and capitalized software development costs for fiscal year 2023, and changes in net working capital to be a modest source of cash. We expect this level of CapEx to continue in 2024.

就我們的資產負債表而言，第二季結束時我們擁有 11 億美元的現金，現在計劃年底時擁有超過 12 億美元的現金。提醒一下，我們預計 2023 財年的資本支出和資本化軟體開發成本約為 1.2 億美元，淨營運資本的變化將成為適度的現金來源。我們預計這一水準的資本支出將在 2024 年持續下去。

Moving on to our full year 2024 guidance. We are poised for a rapid increase in adjusted EBITDA due to continued strong revenue growth, coupled with a scaled fixed cost structure. For 2024, we expect revenue in the range of $4.5 billion to $4.8 billion or nearly $1 billion of incremental revenue growth compared to the midpoint of our fiscal 2023 revenue guidance and more than double our revenue from 2022.

接下來是我們的 2024 年全年指導。由於持續強勁的收入成長以及規模化的固定成本結構，我們預計調整後的 EBITDA 將快速成長。對於 2024 年，我們預計營收將在 45 億至 48 億美元之間，即與 2023 財年收入指導中位數相比，營收增量成長近 10 億美元，是 2022 年營收的兩倍以上。

Our guidance range for 2024 adjusted EBITDA is $350 million to $450 million, which equates to more than $500 million of year-over-year growth compared to the midpoint of our fiscal year 2023 adjusted EBITDA guidance and more than $1.1 billion of adjusted EBITDA improvement since 2022. Our guidance range for 2024 includes investments to launch approximately 5% of the adult population.

我們對2024 年調整後EBITDA 的指導範圍為3.5 億至4.5 億美元，這相當於與2023 財年調整後EBITDA 指導的中位數相比，同比增長超過5 億美元，自2023 年以來，調整後EBITDA改善超過11 億美元。2022 年。我們對 2024 年的指導範圍包括為大約 5% 的成年人口進行投資。

In addition, based on the midpoints of our fiscal year 2023 and 2024 guidance ranges, we expect year-over-year adjusted EBITDA flow-through percentage up 53%, which we look forward to delivery. In sum, we had an excellent third quarter and are very excited about the trajectory of our business. We look forward to sharing more details at our upcoming Investor Day.

此外，根據我們 2023 財年和 2024 財年指導範圍的中點，我們預計調整後的 EBITDA 流通百分比將年增 53%，我們期待實現這一目標。總而言之，我們第三季表現出色，對我們業務的發展軌跡感到非常興奮。我們期待在即將到來的投資者日分享更多細節。

That concludes our remarks, and we will now open the line for questions.

我們的發言到此結束，現在我們開始提問。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from Shaun Kelley with Bank of America.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自美國銀行的 Shaun Kelley。

Just wanted to start with sales and marketing. I think one of the many things we learned this quarter was seeing your overall sales and marketing actually declined year-over-year, and I believe implying external marketing down even more during the quarter.

只是想從銷售和行銷開始。我認為本季我們學到的許多事情之一是看到您的整體銷售和行銷實際上同比下降，我相信這意味著本季外部行銷下降得更多。

As we look out to next year, I think that pattern actually continues. And I was just wondering if you could elaborate a little bit on what's enabling you to do that and still make the investments that you hope to? And sort of just talk to us a little bit about both mix, meaning new customers acquired versus existing and also seasonality, if you could, just how should we think about external marketing across the year?

當我們展望明年時，我認為這種模式實際上仍在繼續。我只是想知道您是否可以詳細說明一下是什麼使您能夠做到這一點並仍然進行您想要的投資？稍微跟我們談談這兩種組合，這意味著獲得的新客戶與現有客戶以及季節性，如果可以的話，我們應該如何考慮全年的外部行銷？

Thanks, Shaun. So you're correct that we do expect to further decline in external marketing next year, and that is inclusive of potential launches in North Carolina as well as some other states. So all specifically the states that have legalized, not any new states we're predicting legalization.

謝謝，肖恩。所以你是對的，我們確實預計明年的外部行銷將進一步下降，其中包括北卡羅來納州以及其他一些州的潛在推出。因此，特別是所有已經合法化的州，而不是我們預測合法化的任何新州。

And I think the biggest reason why is that as our existing states mature, we see less and less external marketing spend there. We are still continuing to acquire customers even in our old estate vintages. So we do still have marketing spend allocated to those. But it's certainly not nearly at the same level as in the first year, 2, 3 of the state.

我認為最大的原因是，隨著我們現有州的成熟，我們看到那裡的外部行銷支出越來越少。即使在我們的舊莊園年份，我們仍在繼續爭取客戶。所以我們仍然有分配給這些的行銷支出。但這肯定與該州第一年、第二年、第三年的水平相差甚遠。

So as states mature, that comes down. And so just generally, as the business is maturing, we're seeing that happen, which is what we expected, of course, if we see some very significant new states come online next year, that could change. But right now based on the kind of launch that we expect to launch, we're forecasting an external marketing decline next year.

因此，隨著國家的成熟，這種情況就會下降。所以一般來說，隨著業務的成熟，我們會看到這種情況發生，這正是我們所期望的，當然，如果我們看到明年一些非常重要的新狀態上線，情況可能會改變。但目前，根據我們預計推出的產品類型，我們預測明年的外部行銷將會下降。

Our next question comes from Jeff Greff with JPMorgan. Sorry, Joe, sorry about that.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通的傑夫·格雷夫。抱歉，喬，對此感到抱歉。

When you look out to 2024 and you look at -- when you roll up your guidance and your forecast. And when you look at OSB older states and newer states, is there a more meaningful contribution coming from the older states? Or how are you looking at between the different cohorts and vintages?

當你展望 2024 年時，當你總結你的指導和預測。當您查看 OSB 舊狀態和新狀態時，舊狀態是否有更有意義的貢獻？或者您如何看待不同群體和年份之間的關係？

Yes, it's a great question. We actually are going to dive into that very specific topic in much more granular detail at our Investor Day on the 14th. So I very much look forward to sharing detail there. And I think the way you could think about it is if you look at sort of the relative population sizes of the different vintages and then think about the maturity curve, obviously, the older states are still growing. So on a per capita basis, they will be larger.

是的，這是一個很好的問題。事實上，我們將在 14 日的投資者日更詳細地探討這個非常具體的主題。所以我非常期待在那裡分享細節。我認為你可以考慮的方式是，如果你看看不同年份的相對人口規模，然後考慮成熟度曲線，顯然，較老的州仍在增長。所以以人均計算，它們會更大。

And then if you kind of think about how big each vintage is based on the percentage of population, and then also think about the mix of whether it's just OSB or OSB and iGaming, that will give you a picture of how much. But we actually are going to go into a much more specific detail on this on the 14th. And I was very sternly warned by my IR team not to run the -- front run the Investor Day, so I won't -- but it's a great question and look forward to sharing more with you in a couple of weeks.

然後，如果您根據人口百分比考慮每個年份的規模有多大，然後再考慮是否只是 OSB 還是 OSB 和 iGaming 的組合，您就會大致了解有多少。但實際上我們將在 14 日對此進行更具體的細節。我的投資者關係團隊非常嚴厲地警告我不要參加投資者日活動，所以我不會參加，但這是一個很好的問題，並期待在幾週內與您分享更多資訊。

Our next question comes from Stephen Grambling with Morgan Stanley.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的史蒂芬‧格蘭布林。

Clearly, there's been a lot of concerns or questions about the competitive environment, whether new entrants or existing folks who perhaps need to protect share. How are you planning for promotions into 2024 versus '23 in the guidance that you provided? And could there be a reallocation from marketing savings that you're discussing?

顯然，人們對競爭環境有許多擔憂或疑問，無論是新進入者還是可能需要保護份額的現有人員。根據您提供的指導，您對 2024 年的促銷計劃與 '23 年相比如何？您正在討論的行銷節省是否可以重新分配？

We continue -- it's a great question. We continue to expect to see a decline in promotions. I know that there are a couple of states that report them that different data can be extrapolated, but it's always tricky to kind of look at a couple of seats. We actually saw a decline year-over-year in promotion rate for our overall OSB and iGaming business in Q3. Obviously, as you know, we saw a gross margin increase of about 300 bps year-over-year. Next year, we forecasted a 200 to 300 bps gross margin increase, and that's mostly from promotional decline. There's a little bit of hold rate increase in there, too.

我們繼續下去——這是一個很好的問題。我們仍然預計促銷活動將會減少。我知道有幾個州報告說可以推斷出不同的數據，但查看幾個席位總是很棘手。實際上，我們在第三季度看到整體 OSB 和 iGaming 業務的促銷率比去年同期下降。顯然，如您所知，我們的毛利率年增了約 300 個基點。我們預計明年毛利率將增加 200 至 300 個基點，這主要是由於促銷活動的下降。那裡的持有率也有一點增加。

But definitely, we'll stay disciplined. We've seen multiple waves of competition. Last time we saw a huge wave of competition. We stayed disciplined. We didn't increase our promotion rate and I don't think we expect to do that this time. So we certainly contemplated a variety of different scenarios in our guidance.

但我們肯定會保持紀律。我們已經看到了多波競爭。上次我們看到了巨大的競爭浪潮。我們保持紀律。我們沒有提高促銷率，我認為這次我們也不希望這樣做。因此，我們在指導中當然考慮了各種不同的場景。

And at this point, I think we have a decent amount of experience and historical data on different types of competition that might emerge. But I think the important thing for us is just to continue what we've done all along, which is to stay disciplined, to focus on bringing down promotion rate through optimization. And then just naturally, I think continuing to see the user base matures and so much of that promotion goes to new customers. And I think if we continue to do that and execute well, the trends that we've been seeing for the last 7, 8 quarters will continue.

在這一點上，我認為我們對可能出現的不同類型的競爭擁有大量的經驗和歷史數據。但我認為對我們來說重要的是繼續我們一直以來所做的事情，即保持紀律，專注於透過優化來降低晉升率。然後很自然地，我認為用戶群會繼續成熟，而大部分促銷活動都會流向新客戶。我認為，如果我們繼續這樣做並執行得好，我們在過去 7、8 個季度看到的趨勢將繼續下去。

Our next question comes from Carlo Santarelli with Deutsche Bank.

我們的下一個問題來自德意志銀行的卡洛桑塔雷利。

Jason, when you guys think about your guidance for '24 within the context of the share gains that you guys have shown consistently but really stepped up in the 3Q. How are you thinking about -- I think relative to the 33% is what you guys had in the release that's blended across both channels. How do you guys think about that share within the context of next year's net revenue and EBITDA guidance? Is it flattish, moving up, et cetera?

傑森，當你們考慮你們對 24 年的指導時，你們的份額增長一直表現出，但在第三季度確實有所提高。你是怎麼想的——我認為相對於 33% 的是你們在版本中混合了兩個頻道的內容。在明年的淨收入和 EBITDA 指導的背景下，你們如何看待這個份額？是否平坦、向上移動等等？

Yes, it's a great question. I mean what we've always sort of typically guided the same way, which is we look at historical cohorts and data and project forward based on that. So implicitly, that generally implies a flat share. And I think a lot of why we outperformed this year by such a significant margin was just our share increase.

是的，這是一個很好的問題。我的意思是，我們總是以相同的方式進行指導，即我們查看歷史隊列和數據，並在此基礎上進行專案推進。隱含地，這通常意味著份額不變。我認為，我們今年的表現如此顯著，很大程度上是因為我們的份額增加了。

So certainly not banking on that for next year. We're confident that we have some opportunity there, and we believe that we can. But as far as what's embedded in the guidance, our methodology hasn't changed. We look at historical cohorts, which kind of implicitly implies flat share and any projection going forward.

因此，明年肯定不會指望這一點。我們相信我們在那裡有一些機會，我們相信我們可以。但就指南中的內容而言，我們的方法並沒有改變。我們著眼於歷史群體，這隱含著持平的份額和任何未來的預測。

Great. And then obviously, based on your scale at this point and the flow through that you guys expect to receive or generate going forward. I guess the next question kind of becomes -- looking back to your March Analyst Day when I think you guys laid out gross margins of like 56% at a steady state and some of the buckets, platform processing, et cetera, that would kind of contribute to that. How do you think about like kind of the evolution of maybe whittling down some of those costs, whether it be within processing or revenue share? And how far are we from having that as kind of a talking point around improving that gross margin?

偉大的。顯然，根據你們目前的規模以及你們期望未來收到或產生的流量。我想下一個問題是——回顧一下你們三月的分析師日，當時我認為你們在穩定狀態下制定了大約 56% 的毛利率，以及一些桶子、平台處理等，這有點像對此做出貢獻。您如何看待可能削減其中一些成本的演變，無論是在處理還是收入分成方面？我們離將其作為提高毛利率的話題還有多遠？

Carlo, it's Jason Park, yes. So great question on the flow through, and I'll start sort of on the bottom end of the income statement, and Jason had already alluded to improving or declining external marketing costs within the 2024 time period. And what I'd also add is we're going to -- we've had a great 18 months of just exerting excellent discipline on our fixed costs. We'll continue to do that.

卡洛，是賈森·帕克，是的。關於流程的問題非常好，我將從損益表的底部開始，Jason 已經提到在 2024 年期間改善或降低外部行銷成本。我還想補充的是，我們在過去 18 個月裡一直嚴格控制固定成本。我們將繼續這樣做。

Then into the cost of goods sold part, we guided to a 200 to 300 basis point improvement in gross margin rate primarily as the promo reinvestment continues to improve. And we do. We do have multiple initiatives throughout the cost of goods sold structure, whether those -- primarily around vendor related negotiations and continuing to achieve scale through volume discounts. And those are embedded within our gross margin rate guidance as well, and I think provide a long runway of continued improvement, both at the gross margin level and the EBITDA margin line.

然後，在銷售成本部分，我們預計毛利率將提高 200 至 300 個基點，主要是因為促銷再投資持續改善。我們確實這麼做了。我們確實在整個銷售成本結構中採取了多項舉措，無論這些舉措主要圍繞與供應商相關的談判，還是繼續透過批量折扣來實現規模。這些也包含在我們的毛利率指引中，我認為，無論是毛利率水準還是 EBITDA 利潤率線，都提供了持續改善的漫長道路。

Yes. And I think as Jason mentioned, definitely the largest driver of gross margin improvement is continued just maturity of the base, which brings promotion rate down. But certainly, in addition to some negotiations, we also just have existing contracts with volume thresholds that we expect over time trip, that will bring gross margins down. That's one of the benefits of having scale.

是的。我認為正如傑森所提到的，毛利率改善的最大驅動力肯定是基礎的持續成熟，這導致促銷率下降。但當然，除了一些談判之外，我們還只有現有的合同，我們預計隨著時間的推移，這將導致毛利率下降。這是擁有規模的好處之一。

Yes, Jason, and that's kind of where I was going with that. Like what -- is that time frame in the next year or 2? Or is that kind of just ongoing enrolling?

是的，傑森，這就是我的想法。例如──這個時間範圍是明年還是兩年？或者說這只是持續的招生？

I think it's ongoing, really. I mean, at a certain point, you cap out, but I would imagine that Google gets better rates on vendors for things than we do. So I think just as you get bigger, you continue to be able to get leverage in those areas because you can afford to pay more even if it's less on a percentage revenue basis. And that's generally how all these things work is that as volume goes up, the rate comes down and -- so yes, I do think it's just kind of an ongoing thing. We have a team that focuses on this pretty much all year around and is continually looking for ways to optimize the COGS structure.

我認為這確實在持續。我的意思是，在某個時刻，你會達到上限，但我想谷歌在供應商身上獲得的價格比我們更好。因此，我認為，隨著你變得更大，你將繼續能夠在這些領域獲得影響力，因為你有能力支付更多費用，即使按收入百分比計算較少。一般來說，所有這些事情都是這樣運作的，隨著交易量的增加，利率會下降——所以，是的，我確實認為這只是一個持續的事情。我們有一個團隊幾乎全年都專注於此，並不斷尋找優化銷貨成本結構的方法。

Our next question comes from David Katz with Jefferies.

我們的下一個問題來自傑弗里斯的大衛·卡茨。

I'd like to talk about something that just has never come up until now, which is your cash flow statement. If we start to think about what next year brings with the '24 guidance, and I think in the prepared remarks, you talked about keeping CapEx at a similar 120 level. You do start to pile up, you start to accumulate some cash. And I'd love to get a sense for how you think about managing around that. Obviously, you want to keep yourself positioned for a state like Florida or California or whatever may happen. But can you just maybe give us a little more color on how you're thinking about that?

我想談談一些迄今為止從未出現過的事情，那就是現金流量表。如果我們開始思考明年 '24 指導方針會帶來什麼，我認為在準備好的發言中，您談到將資本支出保持在類似的 120 水平。你確實開始積累，開始累積一些現金。我很想了解您如何看待這一問題的管理。顯然，您希望自己能夠在佛羅裡達州或加利福尼亞州或其他可能發生的州中保持領先地位。但您能否告訴我們您對此的看法？

Yes, it's a great question. And it's something we've actually been spending increasing time going through looking at all different options, including organic investments we can make, opportunities for capital structure optimization, buybacks, looking at just basically how do we deliver the maximum value over the long term to shareholders.

是的，這是一個很好的問題。事實上，我們一直在花費越來越多的時間來研究所有不同的選擇，包括我們可以進行的有機投資、資本結構優化的機會、回購，基本上看看我們如何在長期內為客戶提供最大價值。股東。

So that is a great question. It's something that we feel fortunate that we now really are in a position to have real value creation from optimally making those decisions to now. We've been, as you said, focused on getting to this point. But definitely feel very good about our trajectory on the cash flow side. And we'll have more to say as we think it through, but definitely a great question and something that we're actively discussing here.

所以這是一個很好的問題。我們感到幸運的是，我們現在確實能夠從最佳地做出這些決策到現在創造真正的價值。正如您所說，我們一直致力於實現這一點。但我們對現金流方面的軌跡肯定感覺非常好。當我們仔細思考時，我們會有更多話要說，但這絕對是一個很好的問題，也是我們在這裡積極討論的事情。

Our next question comes from Joe Stauff with Susquehanna.

我們的下一個問題來自 Susquehanna 的 Joe Stauff。

Two questions. I was just wondering, in your guide for '24. Jason, you had mentioned, I guess, within the 2 -- the gross margin improvement, you had an assumption for an improvement in structural hold. What is that? And then wondering if you could just comment on the level of adult penetration and user growth that you're getting in Mass and Ohio, obviously, you get to 7% pretty quick. Is it fair to assume that, that's now higher, just call it, 2 months into the U.S. sports calendar?

兩個問題。我只是想知道，在你的 '24 指南中。傑森，我猜你曾提到，在毛利率的改善中，你對結構性持有的改善做出了假設。那是什麼？然後想知道您是否可以評論一下您在馬薩諸塞州和俄亥俄州的成人滲透率和用戶增長水平，顯然，您很快就達到了 7%。假設美國體育日曆進入兩個月後，這個數字現在更高，這樣說是否公平？

So great questions. On the hold side, we forecasted basically that we continue on the same level of structural hold rate we're on today. Obviously, there's some opportunities, we think, to potentially increase that. But right now, that's what we have line of sight to. So that's what we put in. And I'm sorry, what was the second question?

這麼好的問題。在持有方面，我們基本上預測我們將繼續保持今天相同的結構性持有率水準。顯然，我們認為有一些機會可以增加這一點。但現在，這就是我們的視線。這就是我們輸入的內容。抱歉，第二個問題是什麼？

Yes. Just a comment on trying to estimate adult penetration, how many more customers are out there, user growth, et cetera. And you had given Ohio and Mass in terms of where you've been, you got to 7% pretty quickly. And I'm wondering where that is now.

是的。只是對嘗試估計成人滲透率、還有多少客戶、用戶成長等等進行評論。你已經給出了俄亥俄州和馬薩諸塞州的情況，很快就達到了 7%。我想知道那現在在哪裡。

Yes. It's another great question. I mean we haven't found a ceiling yet in the older states. We continue to acquire customers. Even in a state like New Jersey, which is our first state that we launched and obviously is bordering a lot of other states that has since launch, we continue to have healthy customer acquisition. So hard to say where the ceiling is.

是的。這是另一個很好的問題。我的意思是，在較老的州，我們還沒有找到上限。我們繼續獲取客戶。即使在像新澤西州這樣的州（這是我們推出的第一個州，並且顯然與推出以來的許多其他州接壤），我們也繼續擁有健康的客戶獲取。很難說天花板在哪裡。

We're well into the double digits in terms of adult population penetration in some of our older states. So I think it really has a lot to do with how we continue to evolve the product. If we continue to make the product more appealing to a wider audience and continue to find ways to innovate to reach more customers, then I think it can continue to go up over a long period of time. But certainly, at this point, we have not found the ceiling yet.

在一些較老的州，成年人口滲透率已達到兩位數。所以我認為這確實與我們如何繼續發展產品有很大關係。如果我們繼續讓產品對更廣泛的受眾更具吸引力，並繼續尋找創新的方法來接觸更多的客戶，那麼我認為它可以在很長一段時間內繼續上升。但可以肯定的是，目前我們還沒有找到上限。

Our next question comes from Dan Politzer with Wells Fargo.

我們的下一個問題來自富國銀行的 Dan Politzer。

I was hoping you could talk a little bit more about hold -- maybe as you see it philosophically or the long term. I mean is there kind of a target or upper limit you see relative to the kind of mid-9 level you're at now? And I guess maybe along with that, how do you think about the trade-offs for hold relative to LTV for the customer?

我希望你能多談談「堅持」——也許你從哲學角度或長期角度看待它。我的意思是，相對於你現在所處的 9 中級水平，你是否有一個目標或上限？我想也許除此之外，您如何看待保留相對於客戶生命週期價值的權衡？

Yes. I mean I think this is something that we'll just always continue to be analyzing and optimizing. And it's almost a tricky question to think about in that sense because it really depends on where you're getting hold increase from. If you continue to create products that the customer wants and they have demand that have higher hold, then that can do a great job, I think, of continuing to raise your hold and I think on the other side of it, if you're raising hold by either forcing people into things that they really don't want or making your pricing worse than the market. I think that's obviously potentially going to have a negative impact on LTV.

是的。我的意思是，我認為這是我們將始終繼續分析和優化的事情。從這個意義上來說，這幾乎是一個很難思考的問題，因為這實際上取決於你從哪裡獲得保持力增加。如果你繼續創造客戶想要的產品，並且他們的需求具有更高的保留率，那麼我認為，這可以很好地繼續提高你的保留率，我認為另一方面，如果你透過強迫人們做他們真正不想要的事情或讓你的定價比市場更差來提高控制力。我認為這顯然可能會對生命週期價值產生負面影響。

So we're very focused on the customer and on creating -- we think -- and we've seen this with a number of products we've created from SGP to cash out. We have a new one that we're going to be talking about at our Investor Day that we're launching, which I love that, I'm really excited about that kind of fits this double objective of being great for the customer and holding better than the average.

因此，我們非常關注客戶和創造——我們認為——我們已經從 SGP 創造的許多產品中看到了這一點。我們將在我們即將推出的投資者日上討論一個新產品，我喜歡它，我真的很興奮，它符合為客戶提供服務和持有股票的雙重目標比平均水平好。

So I think we have a long runway on that front. And it's really about focusing on the customer and maximizing the LTV. So in the end, if we do see that anything, whether it's sort of just the concept that holds higher or a particular product or anything that we've introduced is having an adverse effect on LTVs. And obviously, we'll try to turn the dials accordingly.

所以我認為我們在這方面有很長的跑道。這實際上是關於專注於客戶並最大化生命週期價值。所以最後，如果我們確實看到任何事情，無論是持有更高的概念，還是特定產品或我們推出的任何東西，都會對生命週期價值產生不利影響。顯然，我們會嘗試相應地調整方向。

But that's really what the team is focused on. Hold is obviously a variable, promotions are variable, but retention is the most important variable. So very much focused across all value creation drivers across the LTV spectrum. And I think that hold is something that, again, it's a little tricky because it depends on how you're doing it, but I do think there's a lot more room for upside there than not.

但這確實是團隊關注的重點。保留顯然是一個變量，促銷也是變量，但留存率是最重要的變量。因此，我們非常關註生命週期價值範圍內的所有價值創造驅動因素。我認為持有是一件有點棘手的事情，因為這取決於你如何做，但我確實認為那裡有更多的上升空間。

Our next question comes from Robert Fishman with MoffettNathanson.

我們的下一個問題來自羅伯特·菲什曼和莫菲特·內桑森。

On iGaming, despite still early days on legalization, has your confidence increased over the past year of how big of a driver iGaming can be for total company revenue? Maybe also importantly, total company profitability. And then just separately, with some of your competitors using that vision for streaming NFL games this year, can you discuss your updated thoughts on streaming live games in your app and whether you think there's any long-term benefits for DraftKings.

在 iGaming 方面，儘管合法化仍處於早期階段，但在過去的一年中，您對 iGaming 對公司總收入的推動力有多大的信心是否有所增強？也許也很重要的是公司的整體獲利能力。然後，與您的一些競爭對手今年使用串流媒體 NFL 比賽的願景相比，您能否討論一下您對在應用程式中串流直播比賽的最新想法，以及您認為這對 DraftKings 是否有任何長期好處。

So great questions. On the first one, I mean, iGaming is probably the one piece of our business I'd point to that's under talked about, namely because we're only in 11% of the population now. 87% is still not legalized. Huge opportunity there. Obviously, still tremendous opportunity with a little bit -- around half of the U.S. population, not having legal sports betting and all our oldest markets still growing too.

這麼好的問題。關於第一個問題，我的意思是，iGaming 可能是我們業務中未被充分討論的一個部分，即因為我們現在只佔總人口的 11%。 87%仍未合法化。那裡有巨大的機會。顯然，仍然有巨大的機會——大約一半的美國人口沒有合法的體育博彩，而我們所有最古老的市場也在成長。

But iGaming, as we've noted in the past, we believe has roughly 2x the TAM on a per capita basis as online sports betting. So a tremendous opportunity and I do think you'll start to see more momentum in the states in the coming years. It's just as we thought in the beginning, sports is kind of leading the charge.

但正如我們過去指出的那樣，我們認為 iGaming 的人均 TAM 大約是線上體育博彩的 2 倍。這是一個巨大的機會，我確實認為未來幾年你會開始在各州看到更多的動力。正如我們一開始所想的那樣，體育在某種程度上處於領先地位。

But I definitely feel like that's an under-talked about opportunity, and I'm glad that you're bringing it up and something that we -- much like the sports market feel we're very well positioned in having the #1 position in the market at this point.

但我確實覺得這是一個被低估的機會，我很高興你提出這個問題，就像體育市場一樣，我們認為我們處於非常有利的位置，在此時的市場。

And then as far as the question on streaming and the app, it's something we did look at and continue to look. I mean, one of the exciting parts of where we're at right now as a company, and as an industry is that there's still so much innovation out there, and there's so many things that we can do to create value for the customer and for the business. And we had a really full product road map going into NFL, didn't end up prioritizing that one, but it's something we continue to evaluate.

至於關於串流媒體和應用程式的問題，這是我們確實關注並繼續關注的問題。我的意思是，作為一家公司和一個行業，我們目前所處的令人興奮的部分之一是仍然有很多創新，我們可以做很多事情來為客戶創造價值，為了生意。我們有一個非常完整的進入 NFL 的產品路線圖，最終並沒有優先考慮這一點，但我們會繼續評估它。

And like I said, I think the fact that there's things that people feel are value creating out there that we probably would agree our value creating out there that still didn't make the cut because we have so many other really exciting things that we believe are adding value and generating the results that we've generated. It's just really special time right now in the evolution of the market to be at, where there's so much great opportunity and so much innovation. And I think this is a great example of just this long product road map we have of things that we know and have confidence will deliver value. And it's just a matter of time before we can get to it all.

就像我說的，我認為人們認為有些東西可以創造價值，我們可能會同意我們的價值創造仍然沒有成功，因為我們相信還有很多其他真正令人興奮的事情正在增加價值並產生我們已經產生的結果。現在是市場發展的特殊時期，這裡有如此多的絕佳機會和如此多的創新。我認為這是一個很好的例子，說明了我們所擁有的漫長的產品路線圖，我們知道並且有信心創造價值。我們實現這一切只是時間問題。

Our next question comes from Barry Jonas with Truist Securities.

我們的下一個問題來自 Truist Securities 的 Barry Jonas。

Can you maybe talk about your expectations for the next wave of state to legalize OSB and where you could get access?

您能否談談您對下一波 OSB 合法化的期望以及您可以從哪裡獲得？

Yes, great question. It's hard to say. Obviously, if you look at the map, a lot of the biggest states outside of the top 3 have already legalized. Obviously, Georgia is still one that's in that top 10 that has had some momentum in the last couple of years and hopefully, we get some traction there this year. Obviously, the big prizes of California, Texas and Florida are still out there, but those might be a little longer path with Texas not meeting again until '25 and Florida and California requiring ballot initiatives.

是的，很好的問題。很難說。顯然，如果你看一下地圖，你會發現前三名之外的許多最大的州已經合法化。顯然，喬治亞州仍然是前十名之一，在過去幾年中取得了一定的發展勢頭，希望今年我們能在那裡獲得一些牽引力。顯然，加州、德州和佛羅裡達州的大獎仍然存在，但由於德州要到 25 年才能再次見面，佛羅裡達州和加州需要投票倡議，所以這些可能會有點長。

So those are really kind of the big states in terms of population left out there. And I would say probably the clearest path now of them is in Georgia, but still really hard to say what the timing and likelihood of that is.

因此，就剩下的人口而言，這些州確實是大州。我想說，現在最清晰的路徑可能是在喬治亞州，但仍然很難說其時機和可能性是什麼。

And then more on the midsized states, we had good traction and progress in Minnesota last year. I think that could be one that's in play. Missouri, I think there continues to be a lot of interesting routes. There's some complications there too, but I think there's potential for that one.

然後更多的是在中型州，去年我們在明尼蘇達州取得了良好的牽引力和進展。我認為這可能是其中之一。密蘇裡州，我認為仍然有很多有趣的路線。其中也存在一些複雜性，但我認為有潛力。

And then like every year, there's always some states that we didn't anticipate going into the legislative session and all of a sudden, there's some momentum around. And we usually figure that out either towards the end of the year, early next year as people are starting to think about introducing bills in the upcoming sessions, many of which start in Q1. So we'll know a lot more in the next 3 or 4 months, but definitely I think we'll get some more states this year, and those are a handful of the ones we have our eye on.

然後就像每年一樣，總是會有一些我們沒有預料到的州會進入立法會議，突然間，出現了一些動力。我們通常會在年底或明年初確定這一點，因為人們開始考慮在即將到來的會議中提出法案，其中許多會議從第一季開始。因此，在接下來的 3 到 4 個月內，我們會了解更多信息，但我認為今年我們肯定會得到更多的州，這些是我們關注的少數幾個州。

Great. And then just for a follow-up, with ESPN bet coming online mid-football season, do you expect some trialing from your user base? And is this at all reflected in your guidance explicitly?

偉大的。接下來，隨著 ESPN 投注在足球賽季中期上線，您是否期望您的用戶群進行一些嘗試？這是否明確反映在您的指導上？

We've seen so many waves of competition now, and we really always had a highly competitive market. It's not like we haven't had a fierce competition pretty much from the start. So we always expect that there will be competitors that will come and try to give our customers an experience and we have to just give them a better experience. And certainly, there are people that will go take promos and that will happen.

我們現在已經看到瞭如此多的競爭浪潮，而且我們確實一直擁有一個競爭激烈的市場。我們從一開始就沒有經歷過激烈的競爭。因此，我們總是期望會有競爭對手來嘗試為我們的客戶提供體驗，而我們必須為他們提供更好的體驗。當然，有些人會去參加促銷活動，這種情況將會發生。

But in the end, we believe that most customers will gravitate to the best product, the best experience. So we're going to stay disciplined, and I think it will probably play out in a very similar fashion to other times. But we've contemplated all sorts of scenarios in our guidance. That's why it's guidance with a range.

但最終，我們相信大多數客戶都會被最好的產品、最好的體驗所吸引。因此，我們將保持紀律，我認為這可能會以與其他時候非常相似的方式進行。但我們在指南中考慮了各種情況。這就是為什麼它有一個範圍的指導。

We definitely have thought through what we think the competitive environment and different flavors of that could look like. And we feel that based on now, we've been through this a few times, not only do we have experience managing it. We also have a lot of data. So we feel pretty confident that our guidance range is going to encompass any variety of scenarios that could possibly emerge on the competitive front.

我們確實已經考慮過我們認為的競爭環境和不同的競爭環境可能會是什麼樣子。我們覺得從現在來看，我們已經經歷過幾次這樣的事情了，我們不僅有管理它的經驗。我們也有很多數據。因此，我們非常有信心，我們的指導範圍將涵蓋競爭領域可能出現的各種情況。

Our next question comes from Robin Farley with UBS.

我們的下一個問題來自瑞銀集團的羅賓法利。

I have 2 questions. One is kind of a follow-up to the topic just prior. It sounded like you were saying your forward guidance is based on kind of flat market share with where you are at a given point. And I guess I'm just wondering to what degree you might have factored in that there were some competitors that either close up shop or sort of temporarily but would be coming back. And so is there a factor in there when you think about market share next year compared to this quarter? Or are you thinking that that's -- share this quarter was not impacted, didn't benefit from that at all?

我有 2 個問題。一個是之前主題的後續。聽起來你好像在說你的前瞻性指引是基於與你在給定點的位置持平的市佔率。我想我只是想知道您可能在多大程度上考慮到有些競爭對手要么關閉了商店，要么暫時關閉，但會回來。那麼，當您考慮明年與本季的市場佔有率時，是否存在一個因素？或者您認為本季的份額沒有受到影響，根本沒有從中受益？

And then my other question is, it's just -- I'm wondering if you could give us a sense of any difference in consumer behavior between an OSB customer and an iGaming customer? Could -- we can see a cumulative aggregate revenues by state, but you would see kind of what's happening on a per person basis, just thinking about like any consumer behavior there, more strength or impact from consumer concerns right now and one versus the other?

我的另一個問題是，我想知道您能否讓我們了解 OSB 客戶和 iGaming 客戶之間的消費者行為有何差異？我們可以看到各州的累積總收入，但你會看到每個人正在發生的事情，只要想想那裡的任何消費者行為，現在消費者擔憂的強度或影響更大，一個與另一個相比？

Great question. I mean on the first question, probably the best way to think about it is the guidance kind of is implicitly just due to the methodology going to gravitate towards a flattish share. And it wouldn't necessarily be like a flat share to the moment, right? Because we're looking at historical cohorts and seasonal data. So it really would encompass more of a steady-state share over a recent period of time than like a point in time like this month share type of thing.

很好的問題。我的意思是，關於第一個問題，可能最好的思考方式是，這種指導隱含地只是由於方法論將趨向於持平的份額。目前不一定是固定份額，對吧？因為我們正在查看歷史隊列和季節性數據。因此，它實際上會包含更多最近一段時間的穩態份額，而不是像本月這樣的時間點份額類型的東西。

So that's how I would think about it. And then as I noted, I think really the range itself contemplates a variety of different scenarios and competitive impacts, including any impacts that we might see to share to customer behavior. But really based on historical data, we feel like we have all those scenarios properly encapsulated in the guidance range.

這就是我的想法。正如我所指出的，我認為該範圍本身確實考慮了各種不同的場景和競爭影響，包括我們可能看到的對客戶行為的任何影響。但實際上，根據歷史數據，我們覺得所有這些場景都正確地包含在指導範圍內。

So that's really how I think about it. And then really, I think there's also an element of just us having confidence that our customers and our cohorts have been sticky through multiple waves of competition. And flat share to me would be a disappointment. We've been gaining share. I expect us that our team is going to be dissatisfied if we don't continue to gain share. That doesn't mean that we're necessarily going to guide to that. Obviously, as I noted, we're not.

這就是我的想法。事實上，我認為還有一個因素是我們有信心，我們的客戶和我們的團隊在多波競爭中保持黏性。平攤對我來說將是令人失望的。我們一直在獲得份額。我預計，如果我們不繼續獲得份額，我們的團隊將會感到不滿。這並不意味著我們一定要對此進行指導。顯然，正如我所指出的，我們不是。

But in some ways, you might think of flat share is actually a disappointment in some kind of impact that we weren't anticipating in that sense. But I think for us, really, the goal is always to continue to gain share. And I think it's just a matter of how we forecast and the guidance methodology that we choose that you end up with the sort of flattish share implicit assumption in there.

但在某些方面，你可能會認為份額持平實際上是對某種我們沒有預料到的影響的失望。但我認為對我們來說，真正的目標始終是繼續獲得份額。我認為這只是我們如何預測以及我們選擇的指導方法的問題，最終會得到一種持平的份額隱含假設。

And I'm sorry, what was your -- the second question was on iGaming and OSB customers, I think?

抱歉，您的第二個問題是關於 iGaming 和 OSB 客戶的，我想？

Yes. Kind of the consumer behavior, if one or the other is looking a little bit different in the last few months?

是的。消費者行為是一種什麼樣的情況，在過去幾個月是否看起來有點不同？

Yes. The key difference between the iGaming and OSB customers, really the OSB customer is very seasonal and event driven. There are certainly people that bet on sports throughout the year. But the fact of the matter is that the sport calendar changes throughout the year. So you're just going to have more betting in times of heavy sport like right now versus debt of summer or something like that. iGaming is kind of there and it's the same all the time. So while certainly, we have overall activity differences because more customers on the platform for sport mean more cross-sell into iGaming.

是的。 iGaming 和 OSB 客戶之間的主要區別是，OSB 客戶實際上是季節性和活動驅動的。一定有人全年都在體育博彩上投注。但事實是，體育賽事日曆全年都會變動。因此，在像現在這樣的激烈運動時期，你只會有更多的賭注，而不是夏天的債務或類似的事情。 iGaming 就在那裡，而且一直都是一樣的。因此，雖然我們確實存在整體活動差異，因為運動平台上的客戶越多，這意味著 iGaming 的交叉銷售就越多。

On the individual customer basis, their behavior isn't going to change a whole lot throughout the year. There's some seasonality to it, but people tend to during holiday times, have more downtime and things like that, but it's much more -- much less pronounced than the OSB customer, much more steady throughout the year.

就個人客戶而言，他們的行為全年不會有太大變化。它有一定的季節性，但人們往往在假期期間有更多的停機時間和類似的情況，但它比 OSB 客戶更不明顯，全年穩定得多。

Our next question comes from Bernie McTernan with Needham & Company.

我們的下一個問題來自尼達姆公司的伯尼·麥克特南。

Revenue growth has just been really explosive over the last couple of years, but the guidance for '24 has the year-over-year growth stepping down. What are some of the tailwinds that have been supporting the revenue growth slowing as we move from '23 to '24?

在過去幾年裡，收入成長確實呈現爆炸性成長，但 '24 的指導方針卻使同比成長放緩。從 23 世紀到 24 世紀，有哪些推動營收成長放緩的因素？

Yes. I think it's really just the size of the base increasing. I mean if you look at the absolute revenue growth, it's actually close to $1 billion in our guide for next year. So very healthy growth, just certainly, as the base gets bigger, that percentage is going to be harder to keep in the 50, 60 plus range. So I think that's really the big thing. Obviously, there's an effect on new states that can either increase or if there's a lack of new states to decrease that.

是的。我認為這實際上只是基數的增加。我的意思是，如果你看看絕對收入成長，我們明年的指南中實際上接近 10 億美元。因此，非常健康的成長，可以肯定的是，隨著基數變大，這個百分比將更難維持在 50、60 以上的範圍內。所以我認為這確實是一件大事。顯然，對新州的影響要么會增加，要么如果缺乏新州就會減少。

So that's something, as you think about long-term TAM always to keep an eye on. But I think really what we're seeing next year because we still do see very healthy growth across all of our state cohorts. It's just a matter of we're coming off of a very large base of revenue. And adding $1 billion of revenue doesn't give the same percentage -- or nearly $1 billion, I should say, doesn't give the same percentage increase as it did in the past.

因此，當您考慮長期 TAM 時，請始終注意這一點。但我認為我們明年會看到真正的情況，因為我們仍然看到我們所有州群體的非常健康的增長。這只是我們的收入基礎非常龐大的問題。增加 10 億美元的收入並不能帶來同樣的百分比——或者我應該說，近 10 億美元並不能帶來與過去相同的百分比成長。

Our next question comes from Brandt Montour with Barclays.

我們的下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的布蘭特·蒙圖爾。

So just one on iGaming, another quarter of sequential market share growth there. I'm curious if you call out sort of your OSB share, OSB momentum cross-sell as the main driver of that sequential share lift, how much growth in comparison to that, are you getting from penetration in the Golden side and sort of getting more of those older customers, those slots customers and growth from that angle. And if you saw any benefit in the quarter from disruption at a certain competitor that had a headline stuff in the news.

就 iGaming 而言，市佔率又連續成長了一個季度。我很好奇，如果您將 OSB 份額、OSB 勢頭交叉銷售作為連續份額提升的主要驅動力，與此相比，您是否從黃金方面的滲透中獲得了多少增長？更多的老客戶、老虎機客戶以及從這個角度的成長。如果您在本季度看到某個競爭對手的顛覆帶來了任何好處，而該競爭對手在新聞中佔據了頭條新聞。

Yes. So I think really, the iGaming business, I mentioned a few questions ago, I think is under talked about. It's just such a strong business, steady growth. And we just continue to be able to cross-sell better and acquire more efficiently as we get more data and test more things. So I think there's a ton of upside as you see more states legalize iGaming there. We don't have to reacquire a lot of the customers because such a large percentage of our share does come from cross-sell.

是的。所以我認為，我之前提到的幾個問題確實是 iGaming 業務，但我認為目前還沒有充分討論。這是一項如此強勁的業務，穩定成長。隨著我們獲得更多數據並測試更多東西，我們將繼續能夠更好地進行交叉銷售並更有效地獲取。因此，我認為，隨著越來越多的州將網路博彩合法化，會有很大的好處。我們不必重新獲得很多客戶，因為我們很大一部分份額確實來自交叉銷售。

The other thing I'd note that we got a little bit of boost on is we launched Golden Nugget in Pennsylvania. That was the first state, that Golden Nugget is actually on the DraftKings platform. So -- very excited about that. We saw some really strong early results there and continue to feel really positive on the trajectory there.

我要指出的另一件事是，我們在賓夕法尼亞州推出了 Golden Nugget，這為我們帶來了一點推動。這是第一個狀態，Golden Nugget 實際上在 DraftKings 平台上。所以——對此非常興奮。我們在那裡看到了一些非常強勁的早期成果，並繼續對那裡的發展軌跡感到非常積極。

And then we do expect to see more benefit from continuing to migrate Golden Nugget in other states. Pennsylvania was a new launch. We actually haven't migrated any states yet. That's all on the docket over the next couple of quarters, we're going to migrate pretty much -- we're going to migrate every state for Golden Nugget online gaming. So really, I think that's something that also contributed to a little bit of the share increase, and hopefully, there's some more juice in that as we migrate these other states and continue to optimize the iGaming.

然後我們確實希望看到繼續將金塊遷移到其他州會帶來更多好處。賓州是一個新的發射計畫。實際上我們還沒有遷移任何州。這就是接下來幾季的全部內容，我們將進行大量遷移——我們將遷移金塊線上遊戲的每個州。所以說真的，我認為這也促成了一點份額的增加，希望當我們遷移這些其他狀態並繼續優化 iGaming 時，會帶來更多的好處。

Our next question comes from Clark Lampen with BTIG.

我們的下一個問題來自 BTIG 的 Clark Lampen。

Appreciate the question. I actually wanted to follow up on some of the comments that were just made around Golden Nugget. I know you launched the stand-alone app in Pennsylvania. It's in fact, kind of as you were saying, that means (inaudible) migration is done or at least most of the heavy lifting is behind us. if I heard right, it also sounds like with direct cost guidance next year, that there really isn't much in terms of savings contemplated.

感謝這個問題。我實際上想跟進一些剛剛圍繞金塊發表的評論。我知道您在賓夕法尼亞州推出了獨立應用程式。事實上，正如您所說，這意味著（聽不清楚）遷移已經完成，或至少大部分繁重的工作已經過去。如果我沒聽錯的話，聽起來明年的直接成本指導也確實沒有太多預期的節省。

Could you remind us, I guess, as you're moving the legacy product onto the Golden Nugget stack. Is this something that's really going to benefit share? Are there other efficiencies that accrue to you guys, I guess, from moving on to that stack? Or is it mainly I guess, sort of the share and then exploring, I guess, sort of first-party versus third-party product mix opportunities?

我想，當您將遺留產品移至 Golden Nugget 堆疊時，您能否提醒我們。這真的能帶來利益分享嗎？我想，透過繼續使用該堆疊，你們還會獲得其他效率嗎？或者我猜主要是分享，然後探索第一方與第三方產品組合的機會？

Yes. So -- it's a great question. We actually will get cost of goods sold synergy. There's some timing things with contracts that have certain time frames that affect the timing of when those synergies will actually fully materialize. And what we determined was they're not very material to next year, but they are there, and we do expect to see some impact on the cost savings side. And then as you also alluded to, I think there's some upside on the revenue and share side as well given that we have pretty consistent data showing that our product and our platform converts new customers better, monetizes existing customers better, retains better.

是的。所以——這是一個很好的問題。我們實際上將獲得銷售成本的綜效。合約中有一些時間安排，有一定的時間框架，會影響這些協同效應真正完全實現的時間。我們確定，它們對明年來說並不是很重要，但它們確實存在，我們確實希望看到成本節約的一些影響。正如您也提到的，我認為收入和份額方面也有一些上升空間，因為我們有相當一致的數據表明我們的產品和平台可以更好地轉換新客戶，更好地利用現有客戶，更好地保留客戶。

So really feel like there's some upside there as well. And Golden Nugget is one, the same kind of story. We haven't built in a massive share increase or anything there. So it will be interesting to see what we can do with that brand. Obviously, we have high hopes and are very excited about the migration coming up. And hopefully, there's some upside in that for us. And it's certainly been a contributor. I mean, as I noted, we did gain share on the DraftKings brand, too. But when you combine the 2 brands, we're almost a 30% share now in iGaming, which is if you think about where we thought we could cap out a year or 2 ago was lower than that. So we're pretty bullish on the iGaming opportunity and feel like lots of exciting potential tailwinds in the 2024 product road map there.

所以我真的覺得那裡也有一些好處。 《金塊》也是一個同樣的故事。我們還沒有大幅增加股票或其他任何東西。因此，看看我們能用這個品牌做什麼將會很有趣。顯然，我們對即將到來的遷移抱有很高的期望並且感到非常興奮。希望這對我們有一些好處。它肯定是一個貢獻者。我的意思是，正如我所指出的，我們確實也獲得了 DraftKings 品牌的份額。但當你把這兩個品牌結合起來時，我們現在在 iGaming 的份額幾乎達到 30%，如果你想想我們一兩年前認為我們可以達到的上限比這個還要低的話。因此，我們非常看好 iGaming 機會，並認為 2024 年產品路線圖中存在許多令人興奮的潛在推動力。

Does it enable you guys to be a little bit more aggressive, I guess, with first-party products next year also? Or should we think about, I guess, sort of the same relative mix that we saw sort of this year and in the past?

我想，這是否能讓你們在明年的第一方產品上更積極進取呢？或者我們應該考慮一下，我想，我們今年和過去看到的那種相對組合？

I mean, certainly, as the iGaming business grows and you can amortize those investments over a much larger revenue base, it's going to make more and more sense to invest in first-party products and bringing more and more things in-house, even on some of these tail games and things like long tail games, I should say, and things like that. So iGaming is such that we'll always have third-party partners. There's just certain content, whether it's IP that we don't have the rights to or otherwise that you want that others have. But I think as we continue to be able to build that base and have a larger revenue base to amortize our product investments over it's going to make more and more sense to try to bring some of the longer tail games in-house.

我的意思是，當然，隨著iGaming 業務的成長，您可以在更大的收入基礎上攤銷這些投資，投資第一方產品並帶來越來越多的內部產品將變得越來越有意義，即使在我應該說，其中一些尾部遊戲和類似長尾遊戲之類的東西。所以 iGaming 是這樣的，我們將永遠擁有第三方合作夥伴。只有某些內容，無論是我們沒有權利的智慧財產權，還是您希望其他人擁有的智慧財產權。但我認為，隨著我們繼續能夠建立這一基礎並擁有更大的收入基礎來攤銷我們的產品投資，嘗試將一些長尾遊戲引入內部將變得越來越有意義。

And of course, we're always and that hasn't changed and won't change trying to innovate and come up with new games that are differentiated and gain market share and also we'll have the effect of, of course, cannibalizing third-party games as well. So that's always something we're doing. But I do think that as we increase the size of it, there will be just an economic argument that emerges on some of the longer tail games that doesn't exist today.

當然，我們一直在努力創新，推出差異化的新遊戲，贏得市場份額，這一點沒有改變，也不會改變，當然，我們也會產生蠶食第三方的效果。- 還有派對遊戲。所以這一直是我們正在做的事情。但我確實認為，隨著我們擴大規模，某些長尾遊戲將會出現今天不存在的經濟論點。

Our next question comes from Michael Graham of Canaccord.

我們的下一個問題來自 Canaccord 的 Michael Graham。

I want to follow up on the product development topic for a minute. You had such a great pace of innovation over the last couple of years. Like can that accelerate over the next couple? And related to that, one of the things we've seen historically from the great big tech giants, I'm thinking like Netflix, Google, Facebook, they've been able to institutionalize an engineering-led product development ethos that has really enabled them to kind of extend leadership over time. I'm just wondering how prominent that is in your strategic thinking?

我想跟進一下產品開發主題。過去幾年你們的創新步伐如此之快。比如說接下來的幾個時間會加速嗎？與此相關的是，我們歷史上從偉大的大型科技巨頭身上看到的一件事，我認為像Netflix、谷歌、Facebook，他們已經能夠將工程主導的產品開發精神制度化，這確實使隨著時間的推移，他們會擴大領導力。我只是想知道這在您的戰略思維中有多重要？

I mean, that is absolutely essential on our strategic thinking. We've said pretty much from day 1 that product wins, and that is, first and foremost, the thing that we feel like has to be at the absolute forefront of the industry in order to be the best. Obviously, there are a lot of other things that go into customer experience, marketing, analytics, many other elements of the business are important, and we invest across those 2.

我的意思是，這對我們的戰略思維來說絕對重要。我們從第一天起就說過，產品獲勝，也就是說，首先也是最重要的，我們認為必須處於產業絕對前沿才能成為最好的。顯然，客戶體驗、行銷、分析等領域還有很多其他內容，業務的許多其他元素都很重要，我們在這兩個方面進行投資。

But really the heart and soul of the organization is product and technology. And I think you're absolutely right that that's something that we really feel like over the last several years has been a differentiator, really from day 1 has been a differentiator for us.

但真正組織的核心和靈魂是產品和技術。我認為你說得完全正確，我們在過去幾年中確實覺得這是一個與眾不同的因素，實際上從第一天起就一直是我們的與眾不同之處。

And as far as the first part of your question, the pace of innovation, I actually expect it to increase. A lot of the work that we had to do once we had acquired our own technology platform and then some of the cleanup afterwards, that was really ongoing until late into 2021. So it's really been less than 2 years that we've kind of had just full runway.

至於你問題的第一部分，即創新的步伐，我實際上預計它會加快。一旦我們獲得了自己的技術平台，我們就必須做很多工作，然後進行一些清理工作，這些工作實際上一直持續到 2021 年末。所以我們實際上只用了不到 2 年的時間只是完整的跑道。

Not to mention the fact that there's many other infrastructure investments that we had to make over time that now positioned us to just more rapidly innovate. So we're always balancing whether it's implementation of AI to improve developer efficiency on our PAM, we're building out an API-driven structure so that teams outside of the PAM team can unlock different features in there and integrate products in a better way.

更不用說隨著時間的推移，我們必須進行許多其他基礎設施投資，這些投資現在使我們能夠更快地進行創新。因此，我們總是在平衡是否是透過人工智慧的實現來提高PAM 上的開發人員效率，我們正在建立一個API 驅動的結構，以便PAM 團隊之外的團隊可以解鎖其中的不同功能並以更好的方式整合產品。

We're always trying to think about not only how do we innovate for the customer, but also velocity and pace of innovation. How do we make our teams more efficient, how do we make them quicker. And some of that as you said, is cultural for sure. But there is also an infrastructure investment piece of just making it easier. And as it gets -- the organization gets larger or more jurisdictions, the natural tendency is for it to get more complex. So there's just a constant, I think, push on our end to not accept that and to try to drive more efficiency so that we can innovate at a faster velocity.

我們不僅始終努力思考如何為客戶創新，也思考創新的速度和步伐。我們如何讓我們的團隊更有效率，如何讓他們更快。正如你所說，其中一些肯定是文化方面的。但基礎設施投資也能讓事情變得更容易。隨著組織規模的擴大或管轄權的增多，組織自然變得更加複雜。因此，我認為，我們不斷地不接受這一點，並努力提高效率，以便我們能夠以更快的速度進行創新。

Our next question comes from Jed Kelly with Oppenheimer.

我們的下一個問題來自傑德·凱利和奧本海默。

Great. Just going back to hold. As you engage more customers playing more sports, layer on more parlay products, does that reduce the volatility around your ability to forecast hold? Like does it become more consistent? And then just in line -- just with the 4Q guidance, does that assume that the percentages you saw and the whole percentage in October, do you expect that to continue for November and December?

偉大的。只是回去堅持。當您吸引更多的客戶參加更多的運動、疊加更多的連本帶利產品時，這是否會減少您預測持有能力的波動性？就像它變得更加一致嗎？然後，與第四季度的指導一致，是否假設您看到的百分比和 10 月份的整體百分比，您是否預計 11 月和 12 月會持續這種情況？

So on the first question, I think really, just as we get more data in, as the market matures, everything, whether it's hold rate or any other metric of the business, the forecasting gets tighter and tighter, which is great. I do think we're already pretty tight on forecast in terms of expected hold. There's just sport outcome.

因此，關於第一個問題，我認為，隨著市場的成熟，我們獲得了更多的數據，一切，無論是持有率還是任何其他業務指標，預測都會變得越來越嚴格，這很好。我確實認為我們對預期持有量的預測已經相當嚴格。只有運動結果。

And as far as your question on mix and how it affects it, really, as time goes on, having more variety, meaning more sports, more different types of bets will certainly make it more steady. So as live betting grows, as more sports get adoption, all of that, it's exactly what you think like the more concentrated in one type of bet or one sport, anything is the more susceptible you are to sport outcome effect.

至於你關於混合的問題以及它如何影響它，實際上，隨著時間的推移，更多的多樣性，意味著更多的運動，更多不同類型的投注肯定會讓它更加穩定。因此，隨著現場投注的增長，隨著越來越多的體育運動被採用，所有這一切，正如您所想的那樣，越集中於一種投注或一項體育運動，您就越容易受到體育比賽結果的影響。

So as time goes on and as the base matures and as more people play more things and try more products, we do expect that volatility to decrease. And also, as we see more iGaming, I think same thing, more iGaming states will also smooth it out because the whole rate does not vary as much on iGaming based on any sort of outcome-driven event. So that's a couple of ways to think about it.

因此，隨著時間的推移，隨著基礎的成熟，隨著越來越多的人玩更多的東西並嘗試更多的產品，我們確實預計波動性會減少。而且，當我們看到更多的 iGaming 時，我認為同樣的事情，更多的 iGaming 狀態也會平滑它，因為基於任何類型的結果驅動事件，iGaming 上的整體速率不會有太大變化。所以這是思考這個問題的幾種方法。

As far as the Q4 guide, we've assumed structural hold. It's the same. We did see some favorable sport outcomes kind of the opposite of Q3 in October. So I wouldn't necessarily say the exact hold in October is what we expected in the remainder of the year, but we believe that structural hold will be in line, and we sort of always take an outcome agnostic approach when we're forecasting but then appropriately build into our guidance range, all sorts of different scenarios that might occur.

就第四季的指引而言，我們假設結構性保持不變。一樣的。我們確實看到了一些與十月份第三季相反的有利體育結果。因此，我不一定會說 10 月的確切持倉量就是我們在今年剩餘時間內的預期，但我們相信結構性持倉量將符合預期，並且在預測時我們總是採取與結果無關的方法，但是然後將可能發生的各種不同情況適當納入我們的指導範圍。

Our next question comes from Ryan Sigdahl with Craig-Hallum Capital Group.

我們的下一個問題來自 Craig-Hallum Capital Group 的 Ryan Sigdahl。

DraftKings hasn't participated directly via its DFS business. But any thoughts on Michigan, New York, Florida, all cracking down on (inaudible) and player props via DFS and some of your competition there? And secondly to that, could that potentially be good for your sports betting OSB player prop business in New York and Michigan?

DraftKings 並未透過其 DFS 業務直接參與其中。但對於密西根州、紐約州、佛羅裡達州，所有透過 DFS 和你們那裡的一些競爭對手來打擊（聽不清楚）和球員道具的行為，你有什麼想法嗎？其次，這可能對您在紐約和密西根州的體育博彩 OSB 球員道具業務有利嗎？

It's a good question. I definitely think that cracking down on the legal market is a good thing for us. And the AGA, I believe, I hope I don't mess this number up, said that just in legal betting states alone, there's about $4 billion right now of revenue leakage that's happening into the illegal market. So it's a real issue and probably costing states close to $1 billion in tax revenues at this point.

這是一個好問題。我絕對認為打擊合法市場對我們來說是件好事。我相信，我希望我不要搞亂這個數字，AGA 表示，光是在合法博彩州，目前就有大約 40 億美元的收入流失到非法市場。因此，這是一個真正的問題，目前可能會導致各州損失近 10 億美元的稅收。

So definitely a big deal and something that we're happy to see states doing. But we haven't really thought about any direct impacts on the business. It's not something we contemplate in our guidance and I think depending on the situation, there could be a potential for some of that revenue that's leaking to the illegal market to come back into the legal market. And if that happens, we certainly hope that we get our fair share of it.

所以這絕對是一件大事，我們很高興看到各州正在做的事情。但我們還沒有真正考慮過對業務的任何直接影響。這不是我們在指導中考慮的問題，我認為根據具體情況，部分洩漏到非法市場的收入可能會重新回到合法市場。如果發生這種情況，我們當然希望我們能得到公平的份額。

Impressive performance guys. Good luck.

夥計們的表現令人印象深刻。祝你好運。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Our next question comes from Jordan Bender with JMP Securities.

我們的下一個問題來自 JMP 證券的 Jordan Bender。

From the market share gains in recent quarters, I was wondering if you guys had a sense of how much of that is true player conversion coming from other apps versus finding new players in existing space versus even hold rates pushing a GGR share and just overall growing the market?

從最近幾季的市場份額增長來看，我想知道你們是否了解其中有多少是來自其他應用程式的真正玩家轉化，與在現有空間中尋找新玩家，甚至是保持率推動GGR 份額以及整體成長市場？

I think it's a combination of multiple things. I mean, internally, we see all of our metrics going in the right direction. Retention rates are up, hold rates up, promotional reinvestment rate across OSB and iGaming is down. All of that independent of any sort of competitor of wallet dynamics, all of that is true. So just sort of based on that math, yes, that certainly led to a reasonable amount of the share increase.

我認為這是多種因素的結合。我的意思是，在內部，我們看到所有指標都在朝著正確的方向發展。保留率上升，持有率上升，OSB 和 iGaming 的促銷再投資率下降。所有這些都與錢包動態的任何競爭對手無關，所有這些都是真實的。因此，根據數學計算，是的，這肯定會導致合理的份額增加。

It's really hard to say how much of it is that, how much of it's new players coming into the market and us disproportionately acquiring those players relative to competition and then retaining those players better relative to competition versus truly stealing players from competitors.

真的很難說其中有多少是這樣的，有多少是新玩家進入市場，我們相對於競爭不成比例地獲取這些玩家，然後相對於競爭更好地留住這些玩家，而不是真正從競爭對手那裡竊取玩家。

We don't really know. We certainly know that amongst some players that they have tried multiple apps. And we think they're getting them to decide that we're the best and we're the place they want to concentrate their play is an advantage, but it's hard to say historically how much of share gain has been driven by one factor or another.

我們真的不知道。我們當然知道，在某些玩家中，他們嘗試過多種應用程式。我們認為他們讓他們決定我們是最好的，我們是他們想要集中精力的地方，這是一種優勢，但從歷史上看，很難說有多少份額增長是由一個因素或一個因素驅動的。其他。

Great. And then for my follow-up, Jason Park, I believe you said you're assuming next year 5% legalization that's legalized not launched yet. Is that to say you guys are moving away from assuming incremental legalization within your revenue guidance?

偉大的。然後，對於我的後續行動，Jason Park，我相信您說過您假設明年 5% 的合法化尚未啟動。這是否意味著你們正在放棄在收入指導中逐步合法化的假設？

That's correct. Our revenue guidance includes assumed launches of states that in total represent 5% of the population.

這是正確的。我們的收入指導包括假設推出的州佔總人口的 5%。

Our next question comes from Stephen Glagola with TD Cowen.

我們的下一個問題來自 TD Cowen 的 Stephen Glagola。

DraftKings took pretty significant OSB share in New Jersey in Q3, and the state license, I think, got to like almost 49%. Can you just provide some more color on what's driving that, what you're doing with the VIP activity there? If you can quantify on the revenue upside for the quarter, how much was driven by New Jersey? And then do you expect this market share to be maintained in Q4 and 2024?

DraftKings 在第三季在新澤西州獲得了相當大的 OSB 份額，我認為州許可證的份額接近 49%。您能否提供更多關於推動這一趨勢的信息，以及您在那裡開展 VIP 活動的情況？如果您可以量化本季的營收成長，其中有多少是由新澤西州推動的？那麼您預計這個市佔率會在第四季和 2024 年保持不變嗎？

Very good question. New Jersey has been a real great story for us. It was our first state. It continues to be one of our largest states. But early on, we got off to a hot start and then we, candidly, in our first state had a weaker product at that point, and we lost a lot of share to the competition and ended up dropping down quite a bit relative to where we are today.

非常好的問題。新澤西對我們來說是一個真正偉大的故事。這是我們的第一個狀態。它仍然是我們最大的州之一。但在早期，我們起步很熱，然後坦白地說，我們在第一個狀態下的產品較弱，我們在競爭中失去了很多份額，最終相對於其他地方下降了很多。我們今天。

And I think the team is really focused on building out that great experience, driven by a great product, and we're winning across segments from the most casual the VIP in New Jersey.

我認為團隊真正專注於在出色的產品的推動下打造出色的體驗，我們正在贏得新澤西州最休閒的 VIP 的各個細分市場。

All of our segments are performing well. Customer acquisition continues to be very strong in New Jersey, whoever thought that once New York and Connecticut and everywhere else in Pennsylvania launch that New Jersey would not have any growth anymore was wrong. Continue to see quite a bit of customer acquisition and growth in New Jersey, and iGaming has been around for like a decade there and continues to grow at a steady clip.

我們所有的部門都表現良好。新澤西州的客戶獲取仍然非常強勁，如果有人認為紐約、康涅狄格州以及賓夕法尼亞州其他地方推出後新澤西州將不再有任何增長，那就錯了。新澤西州繼續看到相當多的客戶獲取和成長，iGaming 在那裡已經存在了大約十年，並且繼續穩定成長。

So I think when you kind of put all that together, New Jersey has obviously always been a big focal point for us, and we knew that there was a lot of opportunity to recapture there given that it was our first state, and we've made so many enhancements to our products in some of the early days. And we're very grateful that many customers have given us a shot and have seen a lot of the product and experience improvements that we've made.

所以我認為，當你把所有這些放在一起時，新澤西州顯然一直是我們的一大焦點，而且我們知道，鑑於這是我們的第一個州，有很多機會重新奪回那裡，而且我們已經在早期對我們的產品進行了許多改進。我們非常感謝許多客戶給了我們機會，並看到了我們所做的許多產品和體驗改進。

Our next question comes from Chad Beynon with Macquarie.

我們的下一個問題來自麥格理的查德·貝農。

Understanding that the focus remains in North America, given some settling out in some international markets, given regulation changes. Has anything changed just in terms of the risk reward kind of looking outside of North America given where your product is right now and where the balance sheet is?

鑑於監管變化，一些國際市場已經穩定下來，我們明白重點仍然是北美。考慮到您的產品目前的狀況以及資產負債表的狀況，在北美以外地區尋找風險回報方面有什麼變化嗎？

We obviously are aware of the global gaming market. And I think in long term, there's a lot of upside for us there. We believe that the product and technology investments and other operational infrastructure, marketing infrastructure we're building will be very portable throughout the globe.

我們顯然了解全球遊戲市場。我認為從長遠來看，我們有很多好處。我們相信，我們正在建立的產品和技術投資以及其他營運基礎設施、行銷基礎設施將在全球範圍內非常便攜。

That said, we also understand that the largest market in the world is developing right now, and we're in a really strong position. And a lot of what we feel has helped us and benefited us has been our singular focus here. So that's something that we're very cognizant of. And as we think about longer-term opportunities, it's really important that we always keep that in mind and continue to make sure that the focus is here.

也就是說，我們也知道世界上最大的市場正在發展，我們處於非常有利的地位。我們認為許多對我們有幫助、使我們受益的事情一直是我們在這裡的唯一關注點。所以這是我們非常了解的事情。當我們考慮長期機會時，我們始終牢記這一點並繼續確保重點在這裡，這一點非常重要。

And if we can figure out over time a way to find other ways to capitalize on the global opportunity, we will. But certainly would never do so at the expense of our focus in the U.S., which obviously we think is just the tremendous opportunity in front of us. And as I said, I think a lot of what's benefited us is having that focus, and we don't want to give that up easily.

如果我們能夠隨著時間的推移找到一種方法來尋找其他方式來利用全球機遇，我們就會這麼做。但肯定不會以犧牲我們對美國的關注為代價，顯然我們認為這正是我們面前的巨大機會。正如我所說，我認為對我們有利的許多因素就是專注，我們不想輕易放棄這一點。

Our next question comes from John DeCree with CBRE.

我們的下一個問題來自 CBRE 的 John DeCree。

Covered a lot of ground. Maybe just one question on -- maybe some insights in the consumer behavior from where you guys sit. I don't know if you could you talk a little bit about what you're seeing as states mature versus new states that launch that the customer evolves in terms of average bet or average deposit size? Are those kind of metrics that you look at? And how have they been trending? I guess, with the notion that new states you're penetrating quicker, the reaching contribution quicker? Are they just starting at a more sophisticated or more mature point than older vintages? So kind of a broad question, but curious if you can talk about any of those trends.

覆蓋了很多地方。也許只是一個問題——也許是你們對消費者行為的一些洞見。我不知道您是否可以談談您所看到的成熟州與新州的情況，這些州推出了客戶在平均賭注或平均存款規模方面的發展？您關注的是這些指標嗎？它們的流行趨勢如何？我想，有了新狀態的概念，你滲透得更快，做出的貢獻也更快？它們是否只是從比老年份葡萄酒更複雜或更成熟的階段開始？這是一個廣泛的問題，但很好奇您是否可以談論其中的任何趨勢。

Yes. It's a really fascinating question, and there's a lot of different data insight that can be gathered from looking at all the different states. It's an interesting one. So -- if I kind of -- to more stay at a high level to answer your question, as you noted, the penetration rate has definitely increased penetration to the adult population in terms of how fast that's happening. As a result, you might imagine, we're acquiring a larger base of customers, going deeper, therefore, also means that we're not just acquiring some of the same types of customers we acquired very early in other markets. We're also acquiring some of the customers that we acquired later in other markets.

是的。這是一個非常有趣的問題，透過觀察所有不同的狀態可以收集到許多不同的數據見解。這是一件有趣的事。因此，如果我想更多地保持在高水平來回答你的問題，正如你所指出的，就其發生的速度而言，滲透率肯定增加了對成年人口的滲透率。因此，您可能會想像，我們正在獲得更大的客戶群，更深入，因此，也意味著我們不僅僅是獲得我們很早就在其他市場獲得的一些相同類型的客戶。我們也獲得了後來在其他市場獲得的一些客戶。

But overall, it's still that initial cohort is incredibly valuable. And we've really seen most of that show up in increased CAC efficiency just because such a large influx of new customers has really brought the CAC down for us in a lot of the new states in the early days. So that's something we're definitely seeing. And as far as the other dynamics go, there's also improvements in things that we've made to the product and the way that we do CRM, they have affected things.

但總體而言，最初的群體仍然非常有價值。我們確實看到其中大部分錶現在 CAC 效率的提高上，因為大量新客戶的湧入確實在早期為我們在許多新州帶來了 CAC 下降。這就是我們肯定會看到的。就其他動態而言，我們對產品和 CRM 的方式也做出了改進，它們也產生了影響。

So we're seeing customers in new states come in generally with a higher starting parlay mix because it's easier to kind of get people accustomed to coming in on some of these new products we've launched versus older states, getting people to retrain behaviors to try different products when they're used to using the product in a certain way.

因此，我們看到新州的客戶通常具有更高的起始組合，因為與舊州相比，更容易讓人們習慣於我們推出的一些新產品，讓人們重新訓練行為當他們習慣以某種方式使用該產品時，請嘗試不同的產品。

And I think that has the opposite effect. It increases the immediate monetization and things like that. So -- a lot of moving levers there. But overall, I think you're kind of seeing those 2 high-level factors impact things. The product improvements and CRM improvements we made are increasing some of the metrics coming out of the gates.

我認為這會產生相反的效果。它增加了即時貨幣化和類似的事情。所以——那裡有很多移動槓桿。但總體而言，我認為您會看到這兩個高級因素會影響事物。我們所做的產品改進和 CRM 改進正在增加一些即將出現的指標。

But you're also just seeing so much faster ramp in the population penetration that we're capturing, more casual customers with some of the more die hard customers in there in that early phase as well. Both of them are, I think, overall, resulting in a net very positive impact for us. We're seeing great CACs relative to where we saw in the early days of launching new states, and the LTVs continue to be incredibly strong from those early cohorts.

但你也看到我們正在捕獲的人口滲透率增長得更快，在早期階段也有一些更隨意的客戶和一些更頑固的客戶。我認為，總體而言，它們都為我們帶來了非常積極的淨影響。與我們在推出新州之初看到的情況相比，我們看到了出色的 CAC，而這些早期群體的 LTV 仍然非常強勁。

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes the Q&A portion of today's conference. I'd like to turn the call back over to Jason Robins for any closing remarks.

女士們、先生們，今天會議的問答部分就到此結束。我想將電話轉回給傑森·羅賓斯，讓其結束語。

Thank you all for joining us on today's call. Really excited about 2023, shaping up to be an excellent year for DraftKings. So proud of the team for our Q3 results and looking forward to close the year with bang. And really equally, if not more, excited about 2024 and beyond, lots of great things ahead on the product side and also very excited to be having a very meaningfully positive adjusted EBITDA year for the first time.

感謝大家參加今天的電話會議。我對 2023 年感到非常興奮，這對 DraftKings 來說將是極好的一年。我們為團隊第三季的業績感到自豪，並期待著圓滿結束這一年。同樣，如果不是更多的話，我們對 2024 年及以後感到興奮，產品方面即將發生許多偉大的事情，並且也非常興奮第一次實現非常有意義的正調整 EBITDA 年度。

So lots of good milestones ahead. We're excited about the opportunity, and we look forward to sharing additional insights at our Investor Day on November 14. I hope everybody has a great rest of the next couple of weeks. We'll see you again on November 14. Thanks.

未來還有很多美好的里程碑。我們對這個機會感到很興奮，並期待在 11 月 14 日的投資者日分享更多見解。我希望每個人在接下來的幾週內都能好好休息。我們將於 11 月 14 日再次見到您。謝謝。

Ladies and gentlemen, this does conclude today's presentation. You may now disconnect, and have a wonderful day.

女士們、先生們，今天的演講到此結束。您現在可以斷開連接，並度過美好的一天。