(DKNG) 2023 Q1 法說會逐字稿

完整原文

使用警語:中文譯文來源為 Google 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Good day, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the DraftKings Q1 2023 Earnings Call. (Operator Instructions) Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded.

    美好的一天,謝謝你的支持。歡迎來到 DraftKings 2023 年第一季度收益電話會議。 (操作員說明)請注意,今天的會議正在錄製中。

  • I would now like to hand the conference over to your speaker today, Mr. Stanton Dodge, you may begin.

    我現在想把會議交給今天的發言人,Stanton Dodge 先生,您可以開始了。

  • R. Stanton Dodge - Chief Legal Officer & Secretary

    R. Stanton Dodge - Chief Legal Officer & Secretary

  • Good morning, everyone, and thanks for joining us today.

    大家早上好,感謝今天加入我們。

  • Certain statements we make during this call may constitute forward-looking statements that are subject to risks, uncertainties and other factors as discussed further in our SEC filings that could cause our actual results to differ materially from our historical results or from our forecast. We assume no responsibility to update forward-looking statements other than as required by law.

    我們在本次電話會議中發表的某些聲明可能構成前瞻性聲明,這些聲明受風險、不確定性和其他因素的影響,如我們在 SEC 文件中進一步討論的那樣,可能導致我們的實際結果與我們的歷史結果或我們的預測存在重大差異。除法律要求外,我們不承擔更新前瞻性陳述的責任。

  • During this call, management will also discuss certain non-GAAP financial measures that we believe may be useful in evaluating DraftKings' operating performance. These measures should not be considered in isolation or as a substitute for DraftKings' financial results prepared in accordance with GAAP. Reconciliations of these non-GAAP measures to the most directly comparable GAAP measures are available in our earnings presentation, which can be found on our website and in our quarterly report on Form 10-Q filed with the SEC.

    在此電話會議中,管理層還將討論某些我們認為可能有助於評估 DraftKings 經營業績的非 GAAP 財務指標。不應孤立地考慮這些措施或替代 DraftKings 根據公認會計原則編制的財務結果。這些非 GAAP 措施與最直接可比的 GAAP 措施的調節可在我們的收益報告中找到,這些報告可以在我們的網站和我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的 10-Q 表格季度報告中找到。

  • Hosting the call today, we have Jason Robins, Co-Founder and Chief Executive Officer of DraftKings, who will share some opening remarks and an update on our business and Jason Park, Chief Financial Officer of DraftKings, who will provide a review of our financials. We will then open the line to questions.

    今天主持電話會議的有 DraftKings 的聯合創始人兼首席執行官 Jason Robins,他將分享一些開場白和我們業務的最新情況,DraftKings 的首席財務官 Jason Park 將對我們的財務狀況進行審查.然後我們將打開問題熱線。

  • I will now turn the call over to Jason Robins.

    我現在將把電話轉給 Jason Robins。

  • Jason D. Robins - Co-Founder, Chairman & CEO

    Jason D. Robins - Co-Founder, Chairman & CEO

  • Good morning, and thank you all for joining. I'm excited to be with you today and share that DraftKings is off to an excellent start in 2023.

    早上好,感謝大家的加入。我很高興今天能和大家一起分享 DraftKings 在 2023 年的良好開端。

  • Revenue growth has been outstanding, supported by strong customer retention, acquisition and engagement as well as better structural hold percentage than anticipated. First quarter revenue increased 84% year-over-year, and we are increasing our full year revenue guidance to a range of $3.135 billion to $3.235 billion, implying growth of 42% year-over-year at the midpoint, which is pretty remarkable off a revenue base of $2.2 billion in full year 2022.

    在強大的客戶保留、收購和參與以及比預期更好的結構持有百分比的支持下,收入增長一直很出色。第一季度收入同比增長 84%,我們將全年收入預期上調至 31.35 億美元至 32.35 億美元,這意味著中點同比增長 42%,這是非常了不起的2022 年全年收入基數為 22 億美元。

  • At the same time, achieving efficiency remains a relentless focus. Our mantra of revenue growth and cost efficiency is gaining even more momentum throughout the organization. Due to both our strong revenue growth and our ongoing effort to capture efficiencies, primarily within external marketing and our fixed costs, we are on the cusp of achieving profitability on an adjusted EBITDA basis. We expect to be approximately breakeven on an adjusted EBITDA basis in the second quarter, and we expect to achieve nearly $150 million of positive adjusted EBITDA in the fourth quarter. For the full year, we are improving our adjusted EBITDA guidance to a range of negative $290 million to negative $340 million. or an increase of 21% at the midpoint versus our February full year guidance.

    與此同時,實現效率仍然是一個不懈的重點。我們的收入增長和成本效率的信條在整個組織中獲得了更大的動力。由於我們強勁的收入增長和我們為提高效率所做的持續努力,主要是在外部營銷和我們的固定成本方面,我們即將在調整後的 EBITDA 基礎上實現盈利。我們預計第二季度在調整後的 EBITDA 基礎上大致實現盈虧平衡,我們預計第四季度將實現近 1.5 億美元的正調整 EBITDA。對於全年,我們正在將調整後的 EBITDA 指引提高到負 2.9 億美元至負 3.4 億美元的範圍內。或與我們 2 月份的全年指導相比,中點增長 21%。

  • Turning to our product offerings. DraftKings has continued to introduce unique sports wagering opportunities by most recently launching live Same Game Parlays for MLB, supported by our in-house trading platform. We continue to invest in our in-house trading capabilities and technology in advance of the NFL season this fall.

    轉向我們的產品。 DraftKings 最近推出了由我們內部交易平台支持的 MLB 現場 Same Game Parlays,繼續推出獨特的體育博彩機會。在今年秋天的 NFL 賽季之前,我們繼續投資於我們的內部交易能力和技術。

  • In iGaming, we estimate that we achieved #1 GGR share in the U.S. at 26% in the first quarter. Our homegrown games continue to function as a key differentiator. For example, our exclusive DraftKings jackpot product is now live in three states across more than 100 slots and table games. We also launched DK Horse, our stand-alone horse racing app, at the end of March, which offers wagering on races from hundreds of domestic and international tracks, including all three Triple Crown races beginning with this weekend's Kentucky Derby.

    在 iGaming 中,我們估計第一季度我們在美國的 GGR 份額達到了 26%。我們的本土遊戲繼續作為一個關鍵的差異化因素發揮作用。例如,我們獨家的 DraftKings 頭獎產品現在在三個州的 100 多個老虎機和桌面遊戲中上線。我們還在 3 月底推出了我們的獨立賽馬應用程序 DK Horse,它提供對來自數百條國內和國際賽道的比賽的投注,包括從本週末的肯塔基德比開始的所有三場三冠王比賽。

  • I am proud of the team and culture we have in place. In particular, I am proud of our team for their relentless focus on efficiency and expense management over the past 12 months. Our work on achieving ends is not done, and we feel great about the trajectory of our business.

    我為我們現有的團隊和文化感到自豪。我尤其為我們的團隊感到自豪,因為他們在過去 12 個月中不懈地關注效率和費用管理。我們實現目標的工作尚未完成,我們對我們的業務發展軌跡感覺良好。

  • With that, I will turn it over to Jason Park, Chief Financial Officer.

    有了這個,我將把它交給首席財務官 Jason Park。

  • Jason K. Park - CFO

    Jason K. Park - CFO

  • Thank you, Jason. I'll hit on the highlights, including our Q1 performance and our new and improved 2023 guidance. Please note that all income statement measures discussed, except for revenue, are on non-GAAP adjusted EBITDA basis.

    謝謝你,傑森。我將重點介紹我們的第一季度業績以及我們新的和改進的 2023 年指南。請注意,除收入外,所有討論的損益表指標均基於非公認會計原則調整後的 EBITDA。

  • As Jason mentioned, the organization is executing very well, and that is showing up in our results. We achieved $770 million of revenue in the quarter, which is 84% higher than our first quarter 2022 revenue and our adjusted EBITDA of negative $222 million in Q1 significantly outperformed our expectations.

    正如 Jason 提到的,該組織執行得非常好,這也體現在我們的結果中。我們在本季度實現了 7.7 億美元的收入,比我們 2022 年第一季度的收入高出 84%,我們在第一季度調整後的 EBITDA 為負 2.22 億美元,大大超出了我們的預期。

  • Structural hold percentage was better than anticipated, with parlay handle mix up 400 basis points year-over-year, while promotional intensity declined, together supporting a more than 600 basis point improvement in our adjusted gross margin rate.

    結構性持有百分比好於預期,parlay handle 同比增長 400 個基點,而促銷強度下降,共同支持我們調整後的毛利率提高 600 多個基點。

  • We were particularly pleased with the results in our older state vintages. In each of our 2018, 2019 and 2020, 2021 state vintages, first quarter 2023 handle grew more than 25% compared to the same period in 2022. GAAP revenue grew at least 80% year-over-year. Adjusted gross margin rate increased at least 1,200 basis points year-over-year, and external marketing spend declined at least 10% year-over-year. These strong results and our visibility into continued improvement have enabled us to raise our full year 2023 revenue guidance range to $3.135 billion to $3.235 billion from $2.85 billion to $3.05 billion.

    我們對舊州年份酒的結果特別滿意。在我們 2018 年、2019 年和 2020 年、2021 年的每個州年份中,2023 年第一季度的處理量與 2022 年同期相比增長了 25% 以上。GAAP 收入同比增長至少 80%。調整後的毛利率同比增長至少 1,200 個基點,外部營銷支出同比下降至少 10%。這些強勁的業績和我們對持續改進的可見性使我們能夠將 2023 年全年的收入指導範圍從 28.5 億美元提高到 30.5 億美元至 31.35 億美元至 32.35 億美元。

  • We are also improving our full year 2023 adjusted EBITDA guidance range to negative $290 million to $340 million from negative $350 million to $450 million or by $85 million at the midpoint. The bridge from our February full year 2023 guidance to our May full year 2023 guidance includes increases due to stronger customer retention, acquisition and engagement, structural sportsbook hold improvement and favorable sport outcomes in the first quarter, which were partially offset by the timing of our recognition of a loyalty program expense.

    我們還將 2023 年全年調整後的 EBITDA 指導範圍從負 3.5 億美元至 4.5 億美元或中點 8500 萬美元提高至負 2.9 億美元至 3.4 億美元。從我們 2023 年 2 月全年指導到 2023 年 5 月全年指導的橋樑包括由於更強的客戶保留、收購和參與、結構性體育博彩持有量改善和第一季度有利的體育結果而增加,這部分被我們的時間安排所抵消忠誠度計劃費用的確認。

  • Customer retention, acquisition and engagement are exceeding expectations and account for approximately $195 million of the revenue improvement and approximately $80 million of the adjusted EBITDA improvement. Our structural sportsbook hold percentage forecast is also higher, supported by our introduction of in-house Same Game Parlay capabilities. This trend accounts for approximately $20 million of the revenue improvement and approximately $15 million of the adjusted EBITDA improvement.

    客戶保留、獲取和參與超出預期,佔收入增長的約 1.95 億美元和調整後 EBITDA 增長的約 8000 萬美元。在我們引入內部 Same Game Parlay 功能的支持下,我們的結構性體育博彩持有百分比預測也更高。這種趨勢導致收入增加約 2000 萬美元,調整後的 EBITDA 增加約 1500 萬美元。

  • Favorable sport outcomes in the first quarter contributed approximately $20 million to the revenue improvement and approximately $15 million to the adjusted EBITDA increase. Last, expense recognition timing is a $25 million headwind to our improved full year adjusted EBITDA guidance.

    第一季度的有利體育成果為收入增長貢獻了約 2000 萬美元,為調整後的 EBITDA 增長貢獻了約 1500 萬美元。最後,費用確認時間對我們改進的全年調整後 EBITDA 指導造成 2500 萬美元的不利影響。

  • As a result of greater visibility into our new loyalty program, costs that were originally expected to be expensed in the first quarter of 2024 are now expected to be expensed throughout 2023. This additional expense accrual in 2023 will not result in additional cash outflow.

    由於我們新忠誠度計劃的可見度更高,原先預計在 2024 年第一季度計入費用的成本現在預計將在 2023 年全年計入費用。2023 年的額外費用應計不會導致額外的現金流出。

  • In terms of our full year 2023 adjusted gross margin percentage, we continue to expect to land in the range of 42% to 45%. With regard to our balance sheet, we ended the first quarter with $1.1 billion of cash and now plan to end the year with more than $800 million of cash before our expected inflection to generating positive adjusted EBITDA for the full year 2024 under any reasonable new state launch scenario.

    就我們 2023 年全年調整後的毛利率而言,我們繼續預計將在 42% 至 45% 的範圍內。關於我們的資產負債表,我們在第一季度結束時擁有 11 億美元的現金,現在計劃在我們預期的拐點之前以超過 8 億美元的現金結束這一年,以便在任何合理的新狀態下為 2024 年全年產生正的調整後 EBITDA啟動場景。

  • In sum, we had a strong first quarter, and underlying drivers are improving our outlook for 2023 and beyond.

    總而言之,我們第一季度表現強勁,潛在驅動因素正在改善我們對 2023 年及以後的展望。

  • That concludes our remarks, and we will now open the line for questions.

    我們的發言到此結束,我們現在開始提問。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions) And our first question will come from Shaun Kelley of Bank of America.

    (操作員說明)我們的第一個問題將來自美國銀行的肖恩凱利。

  • Shaun Clisby Kelley - MD in Americas Equity Research & Research Analyst

    Shaun Clisby Kelley - MD in Americas Equity Research & Research Analyst

  • For either Jason or Jason, just obviously, I wanted to talk about the revenue performance, excellent in the quarter. And I wanted to get your sense on -- if the thesis here is around improved customer retention, engagement, what products or product changes in your suite are continuing that?

    對於 Jason 或 Jason,很明顯,我想談談本季度出色的收入表現。我想听聽你的看法——如果這裡的主題是關於提高客戶保留率、參與度,那麼你的套件中的哪些產品或產品變化正在繼續?

  • And kind of how does this play out through the first quarter? I think from what we understand, it sounds like March was just an exceptional pickup for DraftKings. So can you talk a little bit about both that cadence and your product mix that may be helping continue engagement beyond traditional NFL season?

    這在第一季度如何發揮作用?我認為從我們的理解來看,聽起來 March 對 DraftKings 來說只是一個特別的選擇。那麼,您能否談談可能有助於在傳統 NFL 賽季之後繼續參與的節奏和產品組合?

  • Jason D. Robins - Co-Founder, Chairman & CEO

    Jason D. Robins - Co-Founder, Chairman & CEO

  • Thank you, Sean. I appreciate it. And I think you're right. It really -- the theme on the revenue side has been customer retention, monetization. Also, we've had tremendous acquisition results. We acquired 57% more first-time players year-over-year on a 27% lower cost of acquisition. So really pleased on that front, too.

    謝謝你,肖恩。我很感激。我認為你是對的。它真的 - 收入方面的主題一直是客戶保留和貨幣化。此外,我們取得了巨大的收購成果。我們以降低 27% 的收購成本,比去年同期多收購了 57% 的新玩家。在這方面也非常高興。

  • It's been our OSB and iGaming products that have been carrying the load for us. We've been seeing really the big trend difference year-over-year is last year, we saw a bigger drop off after the NFL season ended after the Super Bowl. And this year, I think, due to some CRM optimizations and product enhancements on the sports betting side, as well as some similar things that we've been doing on the iGaming side, we've just seen much stronger retention flowing into late Feb and March. And it seems to be continuing into Q2 as well.

    一直以來,我們的 OSB 和 iGaming 產品都在為我們承擔重任。去年我們確實看到了與去年同期相比的巨大趨勢差異,在超級碗之後 NFL 賽季結束後,我們看到了更大的下降。今年,我認為,由於體育博彩方面的一些 CRM 優化和產品增強,以及我們在 iGaming 方面一直在做的一些類似的事情,我們剛剛看到更強大的保留流入 2 月下旬和三月。而且它似乎也將持續到第二季度。

  • Shaun Clisby Kelley - MD in Americas Equity Research & Research Analyst

    Shaun Clisby Kelley - MD in Americas Equity Research & Research Analyst

  • Great. And maybe just as a quick follow-up, as we think about the revenue outlook and the increase in the quarter, what -- are faster paybacks contemplated in that as well? As we think about just kind of what you're seeing on the individual state level, I think that's been a thesis around particularly the Ohio and Massachusetts launches. But is that contemplated in the revenue outlook increase here? Or is that an opportunity going forward?

    偉大的。也許就像快速跟進一樣,當我們考慮收入前景和本季度的增長時,我們還考慮了更快的回報嗎?當我們考慮您在各個州級別上看到的那種情況時,我認為這是一個主題,特別是圍繞俄亥俄州和馬薩諸塞州的發射。但這裡的收入前景增長是否考慮到了這一點?或者這是一個前進的機會?

  • Jason D. Robins - Co-Founder, Chairman & CEO

    Jason D. Robins - Co-Founder, Chairman & CEO

  • No, absolutely. I mean, really, the way to think about it is the strong acquisition we've been seeing and has been continuing to see in those new state launches, and the speed with which we penetrated into the mid- to high single digits of population -- adult population, I think that sets up for both a faster payback, meaning what used to be a 2- to 3-year time to profitability is being pulled in.

    不,絕對。我的意思是,真的,思考它的方式是我們在這些新的州發布中已經看到並一直在繼續看到的強大收購,以及我們滲透到中高個位數人口的速度 - - 成年人口,我認為這為更快的投資回報奠定了基礎,這意味著過去需要 2 到 3 年的時間才能實現盈利。

  • And also, we think that there will be more revenue contribution from those states in here as well. So it's absolutely a driver of the increased revenue forecast.

    而且,我們認為這些州也會在這裡做出更多的收入貢獻。因此,這絕對是收入預測增加的驅動力。

  • Jason K. Park - CFO

    Jason K. Park - CFO

  • I would add, Shaun. As we indicated, the increase in our Q4 EBITDA, I think that a big part of that improvement is exactly what you're referring to.

    我要補充一點,肖恩。正如我們所指出的,我們第四季度 EBITDA 的增加,我認為這種改善的很大一部分正是你所指的。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • And our next question will come from Bernie McTernan of Needham & Company.

    我們的下一個問題將來自 Needham & Company 的 Bernie McTernan。

  • Bernard Jerome McTernan - Senior Research Analyst

    Bernard Jerome McTernan - Senior Research Analyst

  • Maybe to start, just the reiteration of the 42% to 45% gross margin guide for the year. Just given the strong performance of 1Q, just any puts and takes we should be thinking about for the remainder of the year here?

    也許首先,只是重申今年 42% 至 45% 的毛利率指南。鑑於 1Q 的強勁表現,我們應該在今年餘下的時間裡考慮什麼看跌期權?

  • Jason D. Robins - Co-Founder, Chairman & CEO

    Jason D. Robins - Co-Founder, Chairman & CEO

  • I think the biggest thing is the increased acquisition that we see in customer acquisition. As we've noted in the past, new users are aware a lot of the promotion dollars are spent, and that therefore drives up the promotion dollars.

    我認為最重要的是我們在客戶獲取方面看到的收購增加。正如我們過去指出的那樣,新用戶知道花費了大量的促銷費用,因此推高了促銷費用。

  • That said, we are reiterating the same guide of 42% to 45%. We don't see that being any different on the year. But certainly, you'll see some fluctuations quarter-to-quarter. You'll see something -- some of that show up in the flow-through rate. So that's probably the biggest moving part. But overall, we don't expect it to change outside of that range this year for gross margin percentage.

    也就是說,我們重申了 42% 到 45% 的相同指南。我們認為這一年沒有任何不同。但可以肯定的是,你會看到每個季度都有一些波動。你會看到一些東西——其中一些會出現在流通率中。所以這可能是最大的變動部分。但總的來說,我們預計今年毛利率不會超出該範圍。

  • Bernard Jerome McTernan - Senior Research Analyst

    Bernard Jerome McTernan - Senior Research Analyst

  • Understood. And now wanting to step on the toes of any maybe future potential Investor Day. But now that you've posted back-to-back quarters of really strong results on profitability, any changes to thoughts on long-term profitability or maybe getting to those long-term targets sooner?

    明白了。現在想要踩到任何可能未來潛在的投資者日的腳趾。但既然您已經連續幾個季度公佈了非常強勁的盈利能力,對長期盈利能力的想法是否有任何改變,或者是否可以更快地實現這些長期目標?

  • Jason D. Robins - Co-Founder, Chairman & CEO

    Jason D. Robins - Co-Founder, Chairman & CEO

  • Well, you're right. We are planning on covering that at the Investor Day. So I'll hold off on comment on that until then, but we will certainly have more to say about that later this year.

    嗯,你是對的。我們計劃在投資者日對此進行報導。所以在那之前我不會對此發表評論,但我們肯定會在今年晚些時候對此發表更多評論。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • And our next question will come from Ed Young of Morgan Stanley.

    我們的下一個問題將來自摩根士丹利的 Ed Young。

  • Edward Young - Equity Analyst

    Edward Young - Equity Analyst

  • My question relates to Slide 6, about the increasing pace of customer acquisition. The 6% you've achieved in Massachusetts in the first, I guess, 50 to 60 days, suggest that the paces continuing to improve even further of the '23 cohort.

    我的問題與幻燈片 6 有關,關於客戶獲取速度的加快。你在馬薩諸塞州最初取得的 6%,我猜,50 到 60 天,表明 23 歲隊列的步伐繼續進一步提高。

  • Can you just talk to the drivers of this? How much of that is related to your playbook? How much is that sort of stage you're at in terms of the market? And particularly, I wonder if you could comment on to what extent any of that's reflective of the competitive situation and the actions of others that were informing those faster paybacks?

    你能和這方面的司機談談嗎?其中有多少與您的劇本有關?就市場而言,你所處的那種階段是多少?特別是,我想知道您是否可以評論一下這些在多大程度上反映了競爭情況以及其他人的行為,這些行為正在通知那些更快的回報?

  • Jason D. Robins - Co-Founder, Chairman & CEO

    Jason D. Robins - Co-Founder, Chairman & CEO

  • I mean I do think it's all of the above. I think all of the factors you just mentioned, all three factors, are contributing in our tailwinds right now. So one, I think we've very much optimized our go-to-market. We now are close to 2 dozen states at this point. So I think we've had a lot of time to really optimize that and feel very good about our new state playbook.

    我的意思是我確實認為以上都是。我認為你剛才提到的所有因素,所有三個因素,現在都在推動我們的順風。所以,我認為我們已經非常優化了我們的上市。在這一點上,我們現在接近 2 打州。所以我認為我們有很多時間來真正優化它並且對我們的新州劇本感覺非常好。

  • Secondly, you're seeing the effects of national advertising. And that really, I think, especially in the case of Ohio, Massachusetts and Maryland, which came late or shortly following in the case of Massachusetts, the NFL season, a lot of that probably a quick ramp was at least in part the result of a switch to national advertising, which made it more -- that these states been in the past, maybe for a new state launch, hadn't seen as much of the advertising during an NFL season.

    其次,你看到了全國廣告的影響。真的,我認為,特別是在俄亥俄州、馬薩諸塞州和馬里蘭州的情況下,馬薩諸塞州的 NFL 賽季遲到或緊隨其後,其中很多可能是快速上升至少部分是由於轉向全國廣告,這使得它更多——這些州在過去,也許是為了一個新的州發布,在 NFL 賽季期間沒有看到那麼多的廣告。

  • Ohio and Maryland and Massachusetts saw advertising on our national advertising all year -- all NFL season long. I think also there's a lot of momentum in the industry. People travel to different states. They have friends playing. So I think that's helped with faster ramp.

    俄亥俄州、馬里蘭州和馬薩諸塞州全年都在我們的全國廣告中看到廣告——整個 NFL 賽季。我認為這個行業也有很多動力。人們前往不同的州。他們有朋友在玩。所以我認為這有助於加快速度。

  • And I do think that competitively, you're right, that there's been a lot more consolidation in the last few state launches to the top two players in the sportsbook market. And I think that, that's also driving it as well.

    我確實認為,在競爭中,你是對的,在最近幾個州推出的體育博彩市場前兩名球員中,有更多的整合。我認為,這也在推動它。

  • Edward Young - Equity Analyst

    Edward Young - Equity Analyst

  • Great. Just a quick follow-up on iGaming. You talked about some of the internal improvements in terms of retention through the end of the NFL season into March. But I wonder if you could just again broaden the competitive environment question there on iGaming.

    偉大的。只是對 iGaming 的快速跟進。你談到了在 NFL 賽季結束到三月份的保留方面的一些內部改進。但我想知道您是否可以再次擴大 iGaming 上的競爭環境問題。

  • Are you seeing anything particularly different in that environment? Is that informing the market share as well? Or do you think it's sort of primarily sort of internal actions that bring that share increase?

    你在那個環境中看到什麼特別不同的地方嗎?這是否也反映了市場份額?還是您認為主要是內部行動導致了份額的增加?

  • Jason D. Robins - Co-Founder, Chairman & CEO

    Jason D. Robins - Co-Founder, Chairman & CEO

  • I think it's again a mix of both. I think that you're certainly seeing both. I also think that because the cross-sell is so strong between sports betting and iGaming that as we gain share in sports betting, we're naturally going to gain some share in iGaming as well if we continue to do a good job with the cross-sell, which we have been doing. So I think that's a big factor to consider also.

    我認為這又是兩者的結合。我認為您肯定會看到兩者。我還認為,由於體育博彩和 iGaming 之間的交叉銷售非常強大,因此當我們在體育博彩中獲得份額時,如果我們繼續做好交叉工作,我們自然會在 iGaming 中獲得一些份額-銷售,我們一直在做。所以我認為這也是一個需要考慮的重要因素。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • And our next question will come from Carlo Santarelli of Deutsche Bank.

    我們的下一個問題將來自德意志銀行的 Carlo Santarelli。

  • Carlo Santarelli - Research Analyst

    Carlo Santarelli - Research Analyst

  • Jason, you mentioned in your prepared remarks that [parlay handle] was up about 400 basis points year-over-year. Could you maybe put some parameters around, a, kind of the influence that had on hold -- on a stabilized basis, maybe not in the quarter, but maybe some sensitivity around that? And b, could you perhaps give us kind of an estimate of what that number looks like at an absolute level?

    傑森,你在準備好的評論中提到 [parlay handle] 同比上漲約 400 個基點。你能不能放一些參數,a,一種被擱置的影響——在穩定的基礎上,也許不是在這個季度,但也許是一些敏感度? b,你能給我們一個關於這個數字在絕對水平上的估計嗎?

  • Jason D. Robins - Co-Founder, Chairman & CEO

    Jason D. Robins - Co-Founder, Chairman & CEO

  • The hold rate?

    持有率?

  • Carlo Santarelli - Research Analyst

    Carlo Santarelli - Research Analyst

  • Sorry, the mix, the parlay mix.

    對不起,混合,連贏組合。

  • Jason D. Robins - Co-Founder, Chairman & CEO

    Jason D. Robins - Co-Founder, Chairman & CEO

  • I don't -- yes, we haven't disclosed that. I think -- we are looking right now at, at least for Q1, a hold rate that was in the mid-8s. It was roughly a 250-basis-point year-over-year increase, and that was a combination of outcomes, which were unfavorable last year and a little bit favorable this year as well as that increased parlay mix that drove the increase.

    我不——是的,我們還沒有透露。我認為 - 我們現在正在尋找至少在第一季度處於 8 年代中期的持有率。這大約是同比增長 250 個基點,這是結果的組合,去年不利,今年有點有利,以及推動增長的 parlay 組合增加。

  • Carlo Santarelli - Research Analyst

    Carlo Santarelli - Research Analyst

  • Great. Okay. And then as a follow-up, I believe last year, your marketing was a little bit over $800 million. In steady state, how do you guys think about that number relative to revenue as a percentage of revenue?

    偉大的。好的。然後作為後續行動,我相信去年,您的營銷費用略高於 8 億美元。在穩定狀態下,你們如何看待這個數字相對於收入佔收入的百分比?

  • Probably post-launch, et cetera?

    可能是發布後,等等?

  • Jason D. Robins - Co-Founder, Chairman & CEO

    Jason D. Robins - Co-Founder, Chairman & CEO

  • Yes, I think you're right, it does depend in the short term, of course, on state launches. But long term, in our Investor Day, I think we -- what do we say about 7% to 8% of revenue? A little bit more. About 10%, I believe, of revenue in our Investor Day.

    是的,我認為你是對的,這在短期內確實取決於國家的啟動。但從長遠來看,在我們的投資者日,我認為我們 - 我們怎麼說收入的 7% 到 8%?多一點。我相信,大約占我們投資者日收入的 10%。

  • So I think for now, as I noted on an earlier question, we'll be updating some of those metrics later this year at our new Investor Day. But for now, I think we're comfortable saying we think that that's the right number. And I think that potentially as revenue grows, it doesn't mean that marketing would need to continue up from there.

    所以我認為現在,正如我在之前的一個問題中指出的那樣,我們將在今年晚些時候的新投資者日更新其中一些指標。但就目前而言,我認為我們很樂意說我們認為這是正確的數字。而且我認為,隨著收入的增長,這並不意味著營銷需要從那裡繼續向上發展。

  • So I think if you sort of take the snapshot that we put in our last Investor Day, I think at that level of scale, it looks about right. But I also think that, to the extent that revenue continues to grow from there, I don't think marketing has to grow linearly either.

    所以我認為,如果你拍下我們在上次投資者日發布的快照,我認為在那個規模水平上,它看起來是正確的。但我也認為,就收入繼續增長的程度而言,我認為營銷也不必線性增長。

  • Jason K. Park - CFO

    Jason K. Park - CFO

  • Yes. Carlo, I think marketing as a percentage of sales is a perfectly good sort of outside in metric. Internally, we'll just continue to look at LTV to CAC as the state is in that fifth, seventh year and adjust the marketing -- total marketing expense dollars to reflect adults that are left to be acquired. And as we've provided those statistics on our older states, you can see that those -- the absolute marketing dollars are declining in the older states.

    是的。 Carlo,我認為營銷佔銷售額的百分比是一種非常好的度量標準。在內部,我們將繼續關注 LTV 到 CAC,因為該州已進入第五年、第七年,並調整營銷——總營銷費用美元以反映尚待收購的成年人。當我們提供了有關我們較舊州的統計數據時,您可以看到那些 - 較舊州的絕對營銷美元正在下降。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • And our next question will come from Barry Jonas of Truist Securities.

    我們的下一個問題將來自 Truist Securities 的 Barry Jonas。

  • Barry Jonathan Jonas - Gaming Analyst

    Barry Jonathan Jonas - Gaming Analyst

  • Great. We've seen some deals across the space recently. Curious how you're thinking about M&A here?

    偉大的。我們最近看到了整個領域的一些交易。想知道您是如何考慮併購的嗎?

  • Jason D. Robins - Co-Founder, Chairman & CEO

    Jason D. Robins - Co-Founder, Chairman & CEO

  • No. Right now, it's not really a focus of ours. We feel like we had really strong organic growth. We're executing very well competitively. We're seeing natural consolidation of market share happen in the U.S. So I think right now, that's our focus. And it doesn't mean that down the road, M&A couldn't become more interesting. But at the moment, we're very focused on execution.

    不,現在,這並不是我們真正關注的焦點。我們覺得我們的有機增長非常強勁。我們在競爭中表現得非常好。我們看到市場份額的自然整合在美國發生,所以我認為現在,這是我們的重點。這並不意味著併購不會變得更有趣。但目前,我們非常專注於執行。

  • Barry Jonathan Jonas - Gaming Analyst

    Barry Jonathan Jonas - Gaming Analyst

  • Great. And just as a follow-up, curious where you think, from a state legalization perspective, what are the biggest opportunities for OSB? And maybe iGaming expansion exist today?

    偉大的。作為後續行動,好奇您認為從國家合法化的角度來看,OSB 最大的機會是什麼?也許今天存在 iGaming 擴展?

  • Jason D. Robins - Co-Founder, Chairman & CEO

    Jason D. Robins - Co-Founder, Chairman & CEO

  • Yes, it's a great question. I think right now, the states that we are seeing active bills that, I think, have a shot of moving Texas, which we'll see. It's different by the day, what I hear there.

    是的,這是一個很好的問題。我認為現在,我們看到的活躍法案的州,我認為,有一個移動德克薩斯州的鏡頭,我們將看到。每天都不同,我在那裡聽到的。

  • North Carolina, Minnesota, and I think Vermont are the ones that have the best shots of moving. Kentucky, of course, already passed this year. We don't have any update yet on the timing of launch, but we expect by our August call, we'll have a little bit more clarity there and can factor that into any future guidance, to the extent that it's relevant to this year.

    北卡羅來納州、明尼蘇達州和我認為佛蒙特州是擁有最佳移動機會的州。當然,肯塔基州今年已經過去了。我們還沒有關於發佈時間的任何更新,但我們預計到 8 月的電話會議時,我們會更加清楚一點,並且可以將其納入任何未來的指導方針中,只要它與今年相關.

  • And then on the iGaming side, I think there's a lot of bills right now. I don't know that most of them have a good shot of moving this year, but the state that I think probably has the best chance on the iGaming front this year would be Illinois.

    然後在 iGaming 方面,我認為現在有很多賬單。我不知道他們中的大多數人今年是否有機會搬家,但我認為今年在 iGaming 方面最有機會的州可能是伊利諾伊州。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • And our next question will come from Daniel Politzer of Wells Fargo.

    我們的下一個問題將來自富國銀行的 Daniel Politzer。

  • Daniel Brian Politzer - Senior Equity Analyst

    Daniel Brian Politzer - Senior Equity Analyst

  • I just wanted to dive a little bit more into gross margin. Obviously, it came in nicely above.

    我只是想更深入地了解毛利率。顯然,它很好地排在了上面。

  • I was wondering if you could maybe unpack this a bit and talk to the puts and takes here in terms of gaming taxes, the platform cost, processing cost and the rev share. I mean which of these pieces are tied to GGR versus handle? And what kind of moves around quarter-over-quarter? Because this obviously was a big source of the upside, and we've already talked about that a little bit, but any more color there would be great.

    我想知道你是否可以把它拆開一點,就博彩稅、平台成本、處理成本和收益份額來談談看跌期權和看跌期權。我的意思是這些作品中哪些與 GGR 和手柄相關?什麼樣的季度環比變化?因為這顯然是上行的一個重要來源,我們已經談過一點,但如果有更多的顏色,那就太好了。

  • Jason K. Park - CFO

    Jason K. Park - CFO

  • Yes. Good question. I mean, I think gross margin rate was obviously higher on a year-over-year basis, by 600 basis points. Underneath of that is a bunch of state complexion, Dan.

    是的。好問題。我的意思是,我認為毛利率同比明顯提高了 600 個基點。那下面是一堆狀態膚色,丹。

  • So you've got investment through promo dollars, which is a headwind to gross margin rate in Ohio and Massachusetts. At the same time, we're lapping a heavy promotional Q1 with the New York and Louisiana launches in Q1 of 2022.

    所以你通過促銷美元獲得了投資,這對俄亥俄州和馬薩諸塞州的毛利率是不利的。與此同時,我們將在 2022 年第一季度在紐約和路易斯安那州推出大量促銷活動。

  • That's probably one of the largest factors that impact gross margin rate in any given period. Bigger picture, the other elements, taxes, those are fairly well known from a statutory tax rates. Platform cost, we continue to be very thoughtful about vendors that sit within our platform cost, and you hear us talking about bringing in-house more of our game offerings both on OSB and iGaming side.

    這可能是在任何給定時期內影響毛利率的最大因素之一。更大的圖景,其他因素,稅收,這些都是眾所周知的法定稅率。平台成本,我們繼續非常考慮在我們平台成本範圍內的供應商,你聽到我們談論在 OSB 和 iGaming 方面引入更多我們的遊戲產品。

  • And then in terms of market access, as a scale operator, we believe we get fantastic rates in the states that do require market access fees. So I think those are the biggest levers and elements of our gross margin rate.

    然後在市場准入方面,作為規模運營商,我們相信我們在需要市場准入費的州獲得了極好的利率。所以我認為這些是我們毛利率的最大槓桿和要素。

  • Daniel Brian Politzer - Senior Equity Analyst

    Daniel Brian Politzer - Senior Equity Analyst

  • Got it. And just one quick follow-up, if I may. Third quarter, I don't think expectations really changed much there. Is there an expectation that maybe for Massachusetts, Ohio, maybe even Maryland, you have the first football season, and there's -- we should expect an uptick in promotions there. Or is there some element that I'm missing that maybe I should be aware of?

    知道了。如果可以的話,只需快速跟進一次。第三季度,我認為那裡的預期真的沒有太大變化。是否期望馬薩諸塞州、俄亥俄州,甚至馬里蘭州,你有第一個足球賽季,而且 - 我們應該期待那裡的晉升。還是我遺漏了一些我應該注意的元素?

  • Jason D. Robins - Co-Founder, Chairman & CEO

    Jason D. Robins - Co-Founder, Chairman & CEO

  • Yes. I think you're right in the sense that we expect that, given some of the early acquisition trends we've seen in those states and knowing that Massachusetts hasn't even had any football yet, it was March Madness, but there's still probably a significant audience out there, we are baking in an increased acquisition assumption, which results in Q3, even though there might be sort of similar to what Jason was saying on the gross margin side. There's a lot of puts and takes there, too, and it will probably net out slightly better than we thought.

    是的。我認為你是對的,因為我們預期,鑑於我們在這些州看到的一些早期收購趨勢,並且知道馬薩諸塞州甚至還沒有任何足球,那是瘋狂三月,但仍有可能那裡有很多觀眾,我們正在考慮增加收購假設,這會導致第三季度,儘管在毛利率方面可能有點類似於 Jason 所說的。那裡也有很多 puts 和 takes,它的淨收益可能比我們想像的要好一些。

  • But I think that's really going to depend on how strong the customer acquisition is. And overall, H2 should definitely be better. So it's really just a question of depending on acquisition trends, which are a little hard to predict in these states at that early stage of the NFL season, how much falls in Q4 versus how much falls in Q3.

    但我認為這真的取決於客戶獲取的力度。總的來說,H2 肯定會更好。所以這實際上只是一個取決於收購趨勢的問題,在 NFL 賽季的早期階段在這些州很難預測第四季度下降多少與第三季度下降多少。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • And our next question will come from Benjamin Chaiken of Credit Suisse.

    我們的下一個問題將來自瑞士信貸的 Benjamin Chaiken。

  • Benjamin Nicolas Chaiken - Research Analyst

    Benjamin Nicolas Chaiken - Research Analyst

  • I think in your previous comments last quarter, you targeted fixed cost for '23 to be up 10% to 15% year-over-year. I know Jason in a latter -- and in the prepared remarks, you talked about low single-digit cadence in 2Q. How are you thinking about the full year fixed cost guide? Is it still that 10% to 15%? Or has it moved around at all?

    我認為在你上個季度之前的評論中,你的目標是將 23 年的固定成本同比增長 10% 至 15%。我認識後者的 Jason——在準備好的發言中,你談到了第二季度的低個位數節奏。您如何看待全年固定成本指南?還是那10%到15%?或者它已經四處移動了?

  • Jason K. Park - CFO

    Jason K. Park - CFO

  • Yes, absolutely, maintaining the 10% to 15% on a full year basis. And we called out single digit for Q2, as you could see that the fixed costs in Q1 were higher than that. So yes, maintaining the 10% to 15% full year fixed cost growth.

    是的,絕對是,全年保持 10% 到 15%。我們稱第二季度為個位數,因為您可以看到第一季度的固定成本高於此。所以是的,保持 10% 到 15% 的全年固定成本增長。

  • Benjamin Nicolas Chaiken - Research Analyst

    Benjamin Nicolas Chaiken - Research Analyst

  • Okay. And then I'm kind of doing this on the fly, but that implies roughly low single digit -- flat to low single-digit decline in external marketing year-over-year to Carlo's question, you have some new state launches in there, which implies that the legacy states, if you will, external marketing is coming down pretty dramatically. Is this national advertising, better product? How do you think about it? And then are you pleasantly surprised? Or is this all kind of according to plan?

    好的。然後我有點匆匆忙忙地做這件事,但這意味著大約低個位數——外部營銷同比持平到低個位數下降卡洛的問題,你有一些新的州推出,這意味著,如果你願意的話,傳統的說法是,外部營銷正在急劇下降。這是全國性的廣告,更好的產品嗎?你怎麼看?然後你驚喜嗎?或者這一切都是按計劃進行的?

  • Jason D. Robins - Co-Founder, Chairman & CEO

    Jason D. Robins - Co-Founder, Chairman & CEO

  • No, I think this is according to plan. And certainly, I think the speed with which we're seeing it happen is a pleasant surprise. But I think the trends are what we expected.

    不,我認為這是按計劃進行的。當然,我認為我們看到它發生的速度令人驚喜。但我認為趨勢是我們所期望的。

  • Where we land on the year will be roughly flat, I believe. I think there is some plus or minus that could occur based on results. As Jason Park noted earlier, we very much treat this fluidly and are looking at the data real time. And so as we see how -- especially Q2, I think, is pretty we're pretty certain where we'll be there. I think Q3 is a little bit of flexibility depending on results.

    我相信,我們今年的著陸點將大致持平。我認為根據結果可能會出現一些加號或減號。正如 Jason Park 之前指出的那樣,我們非常流暢地處理這個問題,並且正在實時查看數據。因此,正如我們所看到的——尤其是第二季度,我認為,我們非常確定我們會在那裡。我認為第三季度根據結果有一點靈活性。

  • But I think we expect to be in the flattish range year-over-year. And if we spend a little more, I think that would also probably come with an incremental revenue expectation in Q4. So I don't think anything would change on the adjusted EBITDA front.

    但我認為我們預計同比將處於持平區間。如果我們多花一點錢,我認為第四季度的收入預期也可能會增加。所以我認為調整後的 EBITDA 方面不會有任何變化。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • And our next question will come from Jed Kelly of Oppenheimer & Company.

    我們的下一個問題將來自 Oppenheimer & Company 的 Jed Kelly。

  • Jed Kelly - Director & Senior Analyst

    Jed Kelly - Director & Senior Analyst

  • Great. Two, if I may, one longer term. Jason, how do you think about the right approach in terms of managing the optimal hold percentage you want to generate with the maximum number of users? And then my follow-up is, you saw very strong growth in the vintage state. I think you said 10% unique user growth.

    偉大的。兩個,如果可以的話,一個更長期的。 Jason,您如何看待管理您希望通過最大用戶數生成的最佳持有百分比的正確方法?然後我的後續行動是,你看到復古狀態的增長非常強勁。我想你說的是 10% 的獨立用戶增長。

  • Where are those unique users coming from? Is that more consumers being a legal age? Or are you actually getting new users? And does that include Golden Nugget? Or is that all organic?

    這些獨特的用戶來自哪裡?是否有更多消費者達到法定年齡?還是您實際上正在獲得新用戶?這包括 Golden Nugget 嗎?還是這一切都是有機的?

  • Jason D. Robins - Co-Founder, Chairman & CEO

    Jason D. Robins - Co-Founder, Chairman & CEO

  • Yes. I think. So on the first question, I think the answer is we don't know yet. If you look around the world, there's markets that have significantly higher hold rates than anyone in the U.S. I've heard is targeting simply due to some of the legal frameworks there.

    是的。我認為。所以關於第一個問題,我認為答案是我們還不知道。如果你環顧世界,有些市場的持有率比美國任何人都高得多。我聽說的目標僅僅是因為那裡的一些法律框架。

  • And there's a point -- there's a variety of data points. I know there's a lot of moving parts, if one were to want to try to put that puzzle together. But I think we're very much going to treat it iteratively. And the key for us is really product market fit.

    有一點——有各種各樣的數據點。我知道有很多活動部件,如果有人想嘗試將這個拼圖拼在一起的話。但我認為我們很可能會反复處理它。對我們來說,關鍵是真正適合產品市場。

  • So driving hold up by increasing the take, meaning making worse odds or players is not something that I think is really being considered right now, creating products that people want and that they retain well on and that they continue to use and get enjoyment out of is the message.

    因此,通過增加收入來推動保持,這意味著我認為現在並沒有真正考慮讓賠率或玩家變得更差,而是創造人們想要的、他們保留得很好、他們繼續使用並從中獲得樂趣的產品是消息。

  • So I think to the extent that we are able to keep doing that, and I think we have a lot of ideas, obviously, we talked a lot about parlay and driving that. But there's other products like cash out and things like that, where there's certainly opportunity.

    所以我認為在某種程度上我們能夠繼續這樣做,而且我認為我們有很多想法,很明顯,我們談了很多關於 parlay 和推動它的事情。但是還有其他產品,比如兌現之類的,肯定有機會。

  • So these are -- the way we think about it internally is not, hey, let's drive hold up, it's how do we get more adoption? And how do we make sure we're retaining and getting satisfaction from customers on these products? And the outcome, the consequence of that is higher hold rate.

    所以這些是 - 我們在內部思考它的方式不是,嘿,讓我們堅持下去,這是我們如何獲得更多采用?我們如何確保我們保留並獲得客戶對這些產品的滿意度?結果是更高的持有率。

  • And so I think if we continue to approach it that way, there's probably a good deal of still upside there. And where it ends is anyone's guess, we're going to watch the data and continue to be very data-driven as a company.

    所以我認為,如果我們繼續以這種方式接近它,那裡可能還有很多上漲空間。任何人都在猜測它的結局,我們將觀察數據並繼續作為一家公司以數據為導向。

  • And then I'm sorry, what was the second question?

    對不起,第二個問題是什麼?

  • Jed Kelly - Director & Senior Analyst

    Jed Kelly - Director & Senior Analyst

  • Where is the 10% unique user growth coming from in vintage states?

    復古州 10% 的獨特用戶增長來自哪裡?

  • Jason D. Robins - Co-Founder, Chairman & CEO

    Jason D. Robins - Co-Founder, Chairman & CEO

  • There's always new people coming into the market. We still haven't reached, we think the ultimate TAM. So meaning any given older vintage state, we have to remember, we're still even in the oldest of states less than 5 years into this thing.

    總是有新人進入市場。我們還沒有達到,我們認為最終的 TAM。因此,這意味著任何給定的舊年份狀態,我們必須記住,我們仍然處於進入這件事不到 5 年的最古老的狀態。

  • So it's -- I mean, iGaming, I guess in New Jersey has been around longer. But for OSB and outside of New Jersey, iGaming hasn't been around for more than 4 or 5 years, anywhere either. I think 4 years is the most.

    所以它 - 我的意思是,iGaming,我想在新澤西州已經存在了更長的時間。但對於 OSB 和新澤西州以外的地區來說,iGaming 在任何地方的存在時間都不超過 4 或 5 年。我認為4年是最多的。

  • So really, it's still early innings. And I think that at this stage of most any market, you'd expect to see continued user growth and continued penetration of the population. So there are under the coverage, you're right, there's always people that are reaching legal age, it's always people moving in and out of state, there are moving parts. But I think a lot of it is just -- like with any product, you don't get 100% of the adoption on day 1.

    所以真的,它仍然是早期局。而且我認為在大多數市場的這個階段,你會期望看到持續的用戶增長和人口的持續滲透。所以在報導中,你是對的,總是有人達到法定年齡,總是有人進出州,有移動的部分。但我認為很多都是——就像任何產品一樣,你不會在第一天就獲得 100% 的採用。

  • You get some of the most avid and excited users, and that's something we consider when we're setting our CAC targets that you do get more casual customers as time goes on. But there's still a lot of market out there. And I think a lot of this is product-driven, too. The more that we create products that can appeal to the mainstream and that can be easier and less intimidating, I think, for the average customer to understand, the more that user growth will continue.

    你會得到一些最狂熱和最興奮的用戶,這是我們在設定 CAC 目標時考慮的事情,隨著時間的推移,你確實會得到更多的臨時客戶。但是那裡仍然有很多市場。而且我認為其中很多也是產品驅動的。我認為,我們創造的產品越能吸引主流,而且越容易讓普通客戶理解,用戶增長就會越多。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • And our next question will come from Robert Fishman of MoffetNathanson.

    我們的下一個問題將來自 MoffetNathanson 的 Robert Fishman。

  • Robert S. Fishman - Analyst

    Robert S. Fishman - Analyst

  • Given the current weak ad market backdrop, can you just discuss how that's helping with your additional ad buying efficiencies, both on the national and local basis? Maybe I don't know if possible to compare how much you're paying for an ad spot in the playoff this year compared to last year?

    鑑於當前疲軟的廣告市場背景,您能否談談這如何幫助您提高全國和地方的廣告購買效率?也許我不知道是否可以將今年季后賽的廣告位費用與去年進行比較?

  • Jason D. Robins - Co-Founder, Chairman & CEO

    Jason D. Robins - Co-Founder, Chairman & CEO

  • No doubt that there has been a reduction in market rate for advertising. It's been different in different channels. But if you look at it kind of from a macro perspective, it's definitely happening across the board.

    毫無疑問,廣告的市場利率有所下降。在不同的渠道中,情況有所不同。但如果你從宏觀角度來看,它肯定是全面發生的。

  • There is some offset in certain channels of that because there are limits placed on inventory, specifically for our categories. So as an example, the NFL has put a restriction on, I believe, it's 5 spots per game. Don't quote me on the number, but there's some -- I think it's 5 per game.

    在某些渠道中存在一些抵消,因為庫存受到限制,特別是對於我們的類別。因此,舉個例子,我相信 NFL 限制了每場比賽 5 個名額。不要引用我的數字,但有一些——我認為是每場 5 次。

  • So naturally, that changes things. It doesn't have the same effect, maybe in other forms of media, where auto and insurance and others are competing and driving the market. But no doubt, if you look at it on a kind of macro basis, there's been a reduction in ad rate, and that's part of alongside optimization, why we've been able to have such a significant increase in -- excuse me, in customers, but actually to get that with a decrease in CAC, you usually don't see that usually when you have a 50-plus percent increase in customers, your CAC goes up a little bit, and we saw a 27% year-over-year decline in Q1.

    很自然地,這改變了事情。它沒有同樣的效果,也許在其他形式的媒體中,汽車和保險等正在競爭和推動市場。但毫無疑問,如果你在某種宏觀基礎上看它,廣告率有所下降,這是優化的一部分,為什麼我們能夠有如此顯著的增長 - 對不起,客戶,但實際上,隨著 CAC 的減少,你通常看不到,當你的客戶增加 50% 以上時,你的 CAC 會上升一點點,我們看到了 27% 的年度增長-第一季度同比下降。

  • Robert S. Fishman - Analyst

    Robert S. Fishman - Analyst

  • That makes a lot of sense. And just maybe a big picture. With the current competitive landscape, it seems clear to us at least that you cemented DraftKings as a winner for this long-term opportunity. So can you just talk about plans to keep growing your market share from here and maybe even potentially close the gap with FanDuel?

    這很有意義。也許只是一幅大圖。在當前的競爭格局下,至少我們很清楚,你們鞏固了 DraftKings 作為這一長期機會的贏家。那麼你能談談計劃從這裡繼續擴大你的市場份額,甚至可能縮小與 FanDuel 的差距嗎?

  • Jason D. Robins - Co-Founder, Chairman & CEO

    Jason D. Robins - Co-Founder, Chairman & CEO

  • Yes. I mean, first, we don't take anything for granted. So we assume that there's always going to be a very competitive market. And that we don't assume we won anything or that we have anything that we can bank on yet.

    是的。我的意思是,首先,我們不會想當然。所以我們假設總會有一個競爭非常激烈的市場。而且我們不認為我們贏得了任何東西,或者我們有任何可以依靠的東西。

  • And I think that keeps a lot of the edge in the competitive drive for the company. No doubt having a big competitor in FanDuel also is helpful. It gives us somebody on the OSB side to feel like we can chase down.

    我認為這在公司的競爭驅動力中保持了很多優勢。毫無疑問,在 FanDuel 中有一個強大的競爭對手也是有幫助的。它讓我們在 OSB 方面有人覺得我們可以追逐。

  • And I think similarly, on the iGaming side, we've been chasing down BetMGM. And for the first time in Q1, we're able to pass them for #1 market share in iGaming, which we're very proud of.

    而且我認為類似地,在 iGaming 方面,我們一直在追逐 BetMGM。在第 1 季度,我們首次超過他們,在 iGaming 市場份額中排名第一,我們為此感到非常自豪。

  • So definitely, I think, having that competitive landscape is helpful in keeping our employees focused on who we need to be. And at the same time, we also understand that new competitors can enter the market at any time, and we can't take anything for granted and have to assume that we always have to be serving the customer and innovating and creating new products and new features. And over time, we believe that that's the key to driving loyalty. It's just best product, best customer experience.

    因此,我認為,擁有這種競爭格局肯定有助於讓我們的員工專注於我們需要成為的人。同時,我們也明白新的競爭者隨時都可能進入市場,我們不能想當然地認為我們必須始終為客戶服務,創新和創造新產品和新產品特徵。隨著時間的推移,我們相信這是提高忠誠度的關鍵。這只是最好的產品,最好的客戶體驗。

  • Jason K. Park - CFO

    Jason K. Park - CFO

  • I would add, if you look at the market shares relative to FanDuel on a year-over-year basis, our handle -- both of our handle share increases are fairly comparable. And it just reiterates that hold rate is -- continues to be a very large focus area of DraftKings and again, hold rates through product mix and bringing customers additional products that they enjoy. So I think as we continue to make progress in hold rate, that's going to help with relative market share vis-a-vis FanDuel.

    我想補充一點,如果你看一下與 FanDuel 的同比市場份額,我們的手柄——我們的手柄份額增長相當可比。它只是重申持有率是 - 仍然是 DraftKings 的一個非常大的關注領域,並且再次通過產品組合保持率並為客戶帶來他們喜歡的額外產品。所以我認為隨著我們在持有率方面繼續取得進展,這將有助於相對於 FanDuel 的相對市場份額。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • And our next question will come from Joseph Stauff of FIG.

    我們的下一個問題將來自圖的 Joseph Stauff。

  • Joseph Robert Stauff - Credit Analyst

    Joseph Robert Stauff - Credit Analyst

  • Asking about just frame how much wider, say, your product depth is this year versus last, especially in the second quarter? So I don't know how you can frame for us. Like how much wider NBA product is? Or especially second quarter versus last? Especially as I see it kind of going into May, 5 states still in play. Obviously, Knicks and Celtics, which have huge (inaudible) and probably betting handle?

    僅詢問框架,比方說,您今年的產品深度與去年相比有多寬,尤其是在第二季度?所以我不知道你如何為我們設計框架。比如 NBA 產品有多廣泛?或者特別是第二季度與上一季度的對比?特別是當我看到它有點進入五月時,5 個州仍在發揮作用。顯然,尼克斯隊和凱爾特人隊擁有巨大的(聽不清)並且可能是投注手柄?

  • Jason D. Robins - Co-Founder, Chairman & CEO

    Jason D. Robins - Co-Founder, Chairman & CEO

  • No, I think -- I mean, first, you're right that the product is really night and day year-over-year. I think, particularly as you look at the sportsbook product, not that we haven't made as much progress in iGaming, but it was starting from a standpoint where last Q2, we were about 6, 7 months removed going into the quarter from our migration. And now we've had a full extra year under our belt.

    不,我認為 - 我的意思是,首先,你是對的,該產品確實是年復一年的日夜。我認為,特別是當你看體育博彩產品時,並不是說我們在 iGaming 方面沒有取得那麼大的進步,而是從上個第二季度的角度來看,我們從我們的季度開始大約有 6、7 個月的時間移民。現在我們又多了整整一年。

  • We've introduced micro markets for NBA, baseball and several other sports that are really a unique feature that nobody else has. We're the only company in the space now with live Same Game Parlay. We didn't even have Same Game Parlay 1.5 years ago. Now we have the only live NBA Same Game Parlay, and also the only live MLB Same Game Parlay in the market.

    我們已經為 NBA、棒球和其他幾項運動引入了微觀市場,這些運動確實是其他任何人都沒有的獨特功能。現在,我們是該領域唯一一家擁有現場 Same Game Parlay 的公司。 1.5 年前我們甚至沒有 Same Game Parlay。現在我們擁有市場上唯一的現場 NBA Same Game Parlay,也是唯一的現場 MLB Same Game Parlay。

  • And we're continually innovating on a number of features. We added parlay insurance and just many, many other markets that didn't exist last year. So I think you're exactly right. The depth, and not just in terms of the markets, although certainly, there's been a tremendous amount of breadth and depth increase in the market, but of the features and the capabilities as well has been very transformational in terms of our ability to compete for market share and to win the customer.

    我們還在不斷創新許多功能。我們增加了 parlay 保險和去年不存在的許多其他市場。所以我認為你是完全正確的。深度,不僅僅是在市場方面,雖然可以肯定的是,市場的廣度和深度都有了巨大的增長,但就我們的競爭能力而言,特徵和能力也發生了很大的轉變市場份額和贏得客戶。

  • Joseph Robert Stauff - Credit Analyst

    Joseph Robert Stauff - Credit Analyst

  • And then can you just remind us on your efforts and your initiatives to GNOG in particular? And just remind us of maybe be fully, say, implemented in the market?

    然後您能否提醒我們您為 GNOG 所做的努力和倡議?只是提醒我們也許可以在市場上完全實施?

  • Jason D. Robins - Co-Founder, Chairman & CEO

    Jason D. Robins - Co-Founder, Chairman & CEO

  • Yes. So GNOG is -- we are still focusing on the migration there, and believe that we are on track. I think that GNOG has certainly been a good addition in terms of -- it's part of the story of why we've been able to get to #1 market share.

    是的。所以 GNOG 是——我們仍然專注於那裡的遷移,並相信我們正在走上正軌。我認為 GNOG 無疑是一個很好的補充——它是我們能夠獲得第一市場份額的故事的一部分。

  • I will say that I think that the best is really still ahead there because as long as it's not on our platform, we're not realizing the vast majority of the synergies that we put out when we did the deal. And I think those are all still on the come. So we're very excited about the migration.

    我要說的是,我認為最好的仍然遙遙領先,因為只要它不在我們的平台上,我們就沒有意識到我們在完成交易時所產生的絕大多數協同效應。而且我認為這些都還在進行中。所以我們對遷移感到非常興奮。

  • And I think when I say synergy it's not just the cost, obviously, there's cost savings. But also just having a superior product with better revenue and monetization on the players, smoother customer experience, easier to use, superior merchandising, driving more cross-sell between games, I think all of that -- easier flows on the customer acquisition side, we know for a fact that our PAM is converting at a better rate on new users than the GNOG conversion rate.

    而且我認為當我說協同作用時,它不僅僅是成本,顯然,還有成本節約。但也只是擁有更好的產品,為玩家帶來更好的收入和貨幣化,更順暢的客戶體驗,更易於使用,卓越的營銷,推動遊戲之間的更多交叉銷售,我認為所有這些 - 在客戶獲取方面更容易流動,我們知道一個事實,即我們的 PAM 對新用戶的轉化率比 GNOG 轉化率更高。

  • So lots of good things there, but we haven't realized them yet. So very excited about that and hope to start to see some of that materialize in the back half of the year.

    那裡有很多好東西,但我們還沒有意識到它們。對此非常興奮,並希望在今年下半年開始看到其中的一些實現。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • And our next question will come from Clark Lampen of BTIG.

    我們的下一個問題將來自 BTIG 的 Clark Lampen。

  • William Lampen - Director and Digital Gaming Analyst

    William Lampen - Director and Digital Gaming Analyst

  • Jason, given a lot of the positive things that are happening now with the U.S. business that we've covered already on the call so far, I'm curious whether we're at a point where either near or medium term you'd feel more comfortable entertaining opportunities to expand the business maybe a little bit more broadly in overseas markets?

    傑森,考慮到美國業務現在正在發生的許多積極的事情,到目前為止我們已經在電話會議上討論過,我很好奇我們是否處於近期或中期你會覺得更舒適的娛樂機會,可以在海外市場更廣泛地擴展業務?

  • Jason D. Robins - Co-Founder, Chairman & CEO

    Jason D. Robins - Co-Founder, Chairman & CEO

  • For us right now, the opportunity in the U.S. is so significant, and we are so well positioned here that, that has to be the focus. At some point down the road, international will become of interest, but right now, we're very focused on the U.S.

    現在對我們來說,美國的機會非常重要,我們在這裡的定位非常好,這必須成為重點。在未來的某個時候,國際將變得有趣,但現在,我們非常關注美國。

  • And at the same time, obviously, we understand that the capabilities that we're building on the product side, the technology side. These will be things that will give us high leverage and create really strong EBITDA margins where we'd expand into international markets because a lot of the same tech and product is usable without having to add a ton of incremental cost.

    同時,很明顯,我們明白我們在產品方面、技術方面正在構建的能力。這些將給我們帶來高槓桿並創造真正強大的 EBITDA 利潤率,我們將擴展到國際市場,因為可以使用許多相同的技術和產品而無需增加大量增量成本。

  • So it's something down the road we consider. But right now, we think the U.S. is still in the very infancy stages we are so strongly positioned. We're growing our market share. We're growing at a faster clip. The investments we're making are working, and we want to continue to fuel that as much as possible.

    所以這是我們考慮的事情。但現在,我們認為美國仍處於起步階段,我們處於非常有利的地位。我們正在擴大我們的市場份額。我們正在以更快的速度增長。我們正在進行的投資正在發揮作用,我們希望繼續盡可能多地為其提供動力。

  • William Lampen - Director and Digital Gaming Analyst

    William Lampen - Director and Digital Gaming Analyst

  • Understood. And then maybe coming back to product. We've seen some of your peers of late looking to bolster their first-party offerings. I'm curious understanding that the priority is really building in-house there is sort of bigger picture a widening gap between you, FanDuel, and the rest of the sports betting market, would you consider additional acquisitions as a means of sort of both improving the offering and magnifying that trend? Or is there one market, whether it's OSB or iGaming, where that makes more sense?

    明白了。然後也許回到產品。我們已經看到您的一些同行最近希望加強他們的第一方產品。我很好奇,當務之急是真正在內部建設,你、FanDuel 和其他體育博彩市場之間的差距越來越大,你會考慮通過額外收購來改善雙方的關係嗎?提供並放大這種趨勢?還是有一個市場,無論是 OSB 還是 iGaming,哪個更有意義?

  • Jason D. Robins - Co-Founder, Chairman & CEO

    Jason D. Robins - Co-Founder, Chairman & CEO

  • At this point, I don't think that, that's really a focus either. We're seeing market share consolidate organically. And I think, at a certain point down the road, that will reach some sort of ceiling. And then we'll evaluate that at that point.

    在這一點上,我不認為那也確實是一個重點。我們看到市場份額有機整合。而且我認為,在未來的某個時刻,這將達到某種天花板。然後我們將在那時對其進行評估。

  • But right now, I think we feel like the similar answer to your prior question that what we're doing is working. And companies all the time make mistakes by getting distracted when they have something that's really working instead of just focusing. And I think that's something that we feel is really important to just continue to keep the team focused on -- eye on the prize right now.

    但現在,我認為我們對你之前的問題的回答是相似的,即我們正在做的事情正在奏效。公司總是會犯錯誤,因為當他們有真正有效的東西而不是僅僅專注時就會分心。我認為這是我們認為非常重要的事情,它可以讓團隊繼續專注於現在——關注獎品。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • And our next question will come from Chad Beynon of Macquarie.

    我們的下一個問題將來自 Macquarie 的 Chad Beynon。

  • Chad C. Beynon - Head of US Consumer, SVP and Senior Analyst

    Chad C. Beynon - Head of US Consumer, SVP and Senior Analyst

  • As we think about the revenue guidance, Q1 was 24% of that, which I believe is slightly higher than normal. And you called out all the items that led to that strong performance. But as we think about normal seasonality, understanding that it's a moving target with these structural hold changes, is there anything that you're comfortable with providing to us just in terms of how that could look? What's really hinged on that fourth quarter or what the middle of the year could look like?

    當我們考慮收入指引時,第一季度是其中的 24%,我認為這略高於正常水平。你列出了導致這種強勁表現的所有項目。但是,當我們考慮正常的季節性時,了解它是一個具有這些結構性保持變化的移動目標,您是否願意就它的外觀向我們提供什麼?什麼真正取決於第四季度或年中會是什麼樣子?

  • Jason D. Robins - Co-Founder, Chairman & CEO

    Jason D. Robins - Co-Founder, Chairman & CEO

  • Yes, it's a great question. I mean I think that if you're comparing to last year, we had unusually low hold last Q1 because of unfavorable sport outcome. So in any given quarter, that can swing you and that's part of why we really focus more on annual guidance and giving some color around relatively how much we expect to fall in different halves or quarters.

    是的,這是一個很好的問題。我的意思是,我認為如果你與去年相比,由於不利的運動結果,我們在上一季度的保持率異常低。因此,在任何給定的季度,這都會影響您,這就是為什麼我們真正更多地關注年度指導並圍繞我們預計在不同的一半或季度下降多少給出一些顏色的部分原因。

  • But it does vary a little bit based on that. Although over the course of the year, it tends to even out. So you will see some fluctuations in terms of the revenue distribution. Also, you'll see some changes depending on timing of state launches and other things like that.

    但它確實基於此有所不同。儘管在一年中,它趨於平衡。所以你會看到收入分配方面的一些波動。此外,您會看到一些變化,具體取決於狀態發布的時間和其他類似情況。

  • So I think that's really why it was a bit different is that last year, we had really low hold -- was still outcome-driven. And there have been some structural hold changes that have improved, too. But we did see really poor sport outcomes in Q1 last year relative to this year, and that's been a big difference.

    所以我認為這真的是為什麼它有點不同的原因是去年,我們的持有率真的很低——仍然是結果驅動的。一些結構性的保持變化也有所改善。但我們確實看到去年第一季度的運動成績與今年相比確實很差,這是一個很大的不同。

  • As far as anything baked into future quarters, a lot of what we also improved throughout last year was already taking effect in the back half of the year. We have other initiatives that we think could lead to some upside this year. But of the things that we know we have that we've baked into our forecast, a lot of that was already realized in the back half of last year. So you see a bigger impact in Q1 and potentially in the first part of Q2 as well, whereas as we get closer to H2, some of that is kind of lapping year-over-year.

    就未來幾個季度的任何事情而言,我們在去年全年也改進的很多東西已經在今年下半年生效。我們還有其他舉措,我們認為這些舉措可能會在今年帶來一些好處。但是在我們所知道的我們已經納入我們預測的事情中,其中很多已經在去年下半年實現了。因此,您會在第一季度看到更大的影響,也可能在第二季度的第一部分看到更大的影響,而隨著我們接近下半年,其中一些影響會逐年遞增。

  • Chad C. Beynon - Head of US Consumer, SVP and Senior Analyst

    Chad C. Beynon - Head of US Consumer, SVP and Senior Analyst

  • Okay. Helpful. And then with respect to just media tie-ins, you've done some of these exclusive live broadcasting partnerships. It appears that there will be more opportunities if you want to kind of expand with other partners in the media space.

    好的。有幫助。然後就媒體搭售而言,您已經完成了其中一些獨家直播合作夥伴關係。如果您想在媒體領域與其他合作夥伴一起擴展,似乎會有更多機會。

  • Just wondering what you've seen, from a success or failure, with some of these exclusive deals that you've had, if the engagement is higher? And maybe it's worth exploring some of those opportunities that could come up in the next 12 to 24 months?

    只是想知道您從成功或失敗中看到了什麼,如果參與度更高,您已經擁有的一些獨家交易?也許值得探索未來 12 到 24 個月內可能出現的一些機會?

  • Jason D. Robins - Co-Founder, Chairman & CEO

    Jason D. Robins - Co-Founder, Chairman & CEO

  • Yes. I mean, I think for us, continuing to optimize there is a big part of optimizing our marketing. And really it's a deal-by-deal thing. So at this point, we have tremendous data, not just from our decade-plus of daily fantasy sports, but now from almost 5 years of sports betting, on what types of media, deliver what types of results. That's been a big part of our year-over-year optimization.

    是的。我的意思是,我認為對我們來說,繼續優化是優化我們營銷的重要組成部分。實際上,這是逐筆交易的事情。所以在這一點上,我們擁有大量數據,不僅來自我們十多年的日常夢幻體育,而且現在來自近 5 年的體育博彩,關於什麼類型的媒體,提供什麼類型的結果。這是我們逐年優化的重要組成部分。

  • I also think that the market environment has improved, which we noted earlier on a previous question. So there's a lot to like in the media space. And from the standpoint of deals, we evaluate each deal on a deal-by-deal basis. And the hurdle is if we were to take those same dollars and spend them on the open market, could we do at least this well? And if we think we can do at least this well, then why tie them up?

    我還認為市場環境有所改善,我們之前在上一個問題中提到過這一點。所以在媒體領域有很多值得喜歡的地方。從交易的角度來看,我們逐筆評估每筆交易。障礙是如果我們把同樣的錢花在公開市場上,我們至少能做得這麼好嗎?如果我們認為我們至少可以做到這一點,那為什麼要捆綁他們呢?

  • So it has to be a deal where we feel like we have some sort of strategic advantage either access to good efficient spend it at increased scale. It wouldn't be achievable elsewhere or some sort of deal that would give us favorable pricing or something that would make it so that having a tie-in -- a tie-up of dollars versus flexibility in dollars would make sense for us.

    因此,這必須是一項我們覺得我們擁有某種戰略優勢的交易,要么能夠以更高的規模獲得高效的支出。這在其他地方是不可能實現的,或者是某種會給我們有利定價的交易,或者是某種能夠使它成為搭檔的交易——美元的捆綁與美元的靈活性對我們來說是有意義的。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • And our next question will come from Robin Farley of UBS.

    我們的下一個問題將來自瑞銀的 Robin Farley。

  • Robin Margaret Farley - MD and Research Analyst

    Robin Margaret Farley - MD and Research Analyst

  • I have two questions. One is just a follow-up. I'm sorry, I don't know if you clarified how much of the GNOG acquisition contributed to that, the 10% increase in unique users? And then I had a question also on -- your guidance just typically improves every year being 7% to 9% of the population. And that would take quite a few of those smaller states you mentioned having to legalize this year to kind of achieve that increased access to the population for 2024.

    我有兩個問題。一個只是跟進。抱歉,我不知道您是否說明了收購 GNOG 對獨立用戶增加 10% 的貢獻有多大?然後我還有一個問題——你的指導通常每年都會提高 7% 到 9% 的人口。這將需要你提到的許多較小的州必須在今年合法化才能在 2024 年實現增加人口的機會。

  • If you're -- if you don't see those sort of multiple legalizations, I mean, obviously, if Texas is not an issue, but really referring to the other ones. Is there enough organic growth from your existing states to maintain guidance, even if you don't get multiple legalization this year for 2024?

    如果你 - 如果你沒有看到那種多重合法化,我的意思是,很明顯,如果德克薩斯州不是問題,而是真正指的是其他人。你現有的州是否有足夠的有機增長來維持指導,即使你今年沒有在 2024 年獲得多重合法化?

  • Jason D. Robins - Co-Founder, Chairman & CEO

    Jason D. Robins - Co-Founder, Chairman & CEO

  • So thank you, Robin. On the first question, we actually -- it's like-for-like. So it wasn't just we took GNOG and added it in and kept GNOG in the base. In fact, if you look at GNOG, it's actually a little bit of a downward drag on that 10% number. So it would have actually been higher if you just looked at the DraftKings brand, but it's all included.

    所以謝謝你,羅賓。關於第一個問題,我們實際上 - 它是一樣的。因此,我們不僅採用 GNOG 並將其添加進去並將 GNOG 保留在底座中。事實上,如果您查看 GNOG,就會發現這 10% 的數字實際上有點向下拖累。所以如果你只看 DraftKings 品牌,它實際上會更高,但它都包含在內。

  • So that's in there. And on the second question, as far as like -- it's going to vary year-to-year, right? And right now, I think if you look at bills that are live, you could see a scenario where it's above what we forecasted below or right on.

    所以就在那裡。關於第二個問題,就好像 - 它每年都會有所不同,對嗎?現在,我認為如果你看一下實時賬單,你會看到一個場景,它高於我們在下面或正上方的預測。

  • Obviously, if Texas comes through, then that plus Kentucky alone is already over the target. If Texas does not, you still get into that sort of range that we set as an expectation if North Carolina, Minnesota and Vermont end up passing alongside Kentucky.

    顯然,如果得克薩斯州通過,那麼僅肯塔基州就已經超過了目標。如果得克薩斯州沒有,你仍然會進入我們設定的那種範圍,如果北卡羅來納州、明尼蘇達州和佛蒙特州最終與肯塔基州並駕齊驅。

  • So I think either of those are potential scenarios to get at or above. And obviously, if some or none of those bills pass, then we won't. So I think too early in the year to kind of call that. As far as the implications and what they would be. I mean we were still seeing nearly double year-over-year revenue growth in our older state vintages in Q1. We mentioned that earlier.

    所以我認為其中任何一個都是達到或超過的潛在場景。顯然,如果這些法案中有一部分獲得通過或沒有獲得通過,那麼我們就不會。所以我認為在今年這麼稱呼還為時過早。至於影響和它們會是什麼。我的意思是,在第一季度,我們仍然看到我們的舊州葡萄酒的收入同比增長近一倍。我們之前提到過。

  • And I think, again, people need to remember that even the oldest of states are still less than 5 years into this thing. And so there's still a ton of just organic growth happening. I do think, long-term TAM, we need to continue to see state legalization, but I wouldn't make too much out of whether we're above or below in any year.

    而且我認為,人們需要記住,即使是最古老的州也仍然不到 5 年的時間來做這件事。因此,仍有大量有機增長在發生。我確實認為,長期 TAM,我們需要繼續看到國家合法化,但我不會過多地考慮我們在任何一年是高於還是低於。

  • In fact, one of the interesting implications is really on the specific 2024 numbers. If we see less legalization, I don't really expect a tremendous difference to 2024 revenue because a lot of the states that might legalize this year would end up launching. Throughout '24, there will be new user acquisition, things like that.

    事實上,其中一個有趣的含義實際上是關於特定的 2024 年數字。如果我們看到合法化程度降低,我真的不認為 2024 年的收入會出現巨大差異,因為許多可能在今年合法化的州最終都會啟動。在整個 24 年期間,都會有新的用戶獲取,諸如此類。

  • So it probably won't really move the needle a whole lot on revenue, maybe a little bit, but not a ton. Where it really would have an effect would be on the EBITDA, which, obviously, we want to see more state legalization. But in the short term, less would mean more -- less state legalization will mean more EBITDA in 2024. So it's kind of an interesting way to look at it as well, I think.

    因此,它可能不會真正對收入產生很大影響,也許有一點,但不會很大。它真正會產生影響的是 EBITDA,顯然,我們希望看到更多的州合法化。但在短期內,更少意味著更多——更少的州合法化將意味著 2024 年更多的 EBITDA。所以我認為這也是一種有趣的看待它的方式。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • And our next question will come from Jordan Bender of JMP Securities.

    我們的下一個問題將來自 JMP 證券公司的 Jordan Bender。

  • Jordan Maxwell Bender - Director & Equity Research Analyst

    Jordan Maxwell Bender - Director & Equity Research Analyst

  • If we think about your legacy customers, does the promotional intensity of those players, maybe it consistent with more international markets Or do you think there is still more room to save on promotions coming from those cohorts?

    如果我們考慮您的老客戶,這些玩家的促銷強度是否與更多國際市場一致,或者您認為這些群體的促銷活動還有更多空間可以節省嗎?

  • Jason D. Robins - Co-Founder, Chairman & CEO

    Jason D. Robins - Co-Founder, Chairman & CEO

  • I think definitely, there's more room. And similar to how we look at hold, it can't be something where we create a worse customer value proposition, a worse experience, and you don't need to. There's plenty of levers just by making sure we get the right things targeted to the right people so that they're actually generating incremental GGR alongside the promotional dollars and having the effect that we want.

    我認為肯定有更多空間。與我們看待暫停的方式類似,它不可能是我們創造更糟糕的客戶價值主張、更糟糕的體驗而你不需要的東西。有很多槓桿可以確保我們將正確的東西定位到正確的人,這樣他們實際上就可以在促銷資金的同時產生增量 GGR 並產生我們想要的效果。

  • There's optimization of bonus hunters still out there, which we've been very focused on. There's all sorts of levers that you can pull. And then there's still just the natural decline that you're going to see over time as the market matures. And I think you can look across Europe and see that trend in a number of different markets.

    獎金獵人的優化仍然存在,我們一直非常關注這一點。您可以使用各種槓桿。隨著市場的成熟,隨著時間的推移,你仍然會看到自然下降。我認為你可以放眼整個歐洲,在許多不同的市場中看到這種趨勢。

  • So no doubt, there's still room there, and that's still a focus area for the team. And at the same time, we feel like there's no real absolute target. It's certainly about maximizing long-term NPV and player value. So we're also leaving the flexibility to say that if you could find wins where you can really drive increased revenue and retention through promotions that pay back quickly, then we want you to pursue that as well.

    所以毫無疑問,那裡還有空間,這仍然是團隊的重點領域。同時,我們覺得沒有真正的絕對目標。這當然是關於最大化長期淨現值和玩家價值。所以我們也保留了靈活性,如果你能找到勝利,你可以通過快速回報的促銷活動真正推動增加收入和保留,那麼我們希望你也追求這一點。

  • Jordan Maxwell Bender - Director & Equity Research Analyst

    Jordan Maxwell Bender - Director & Equity Research Analyst

  • Great. And then for my follow-up, on DK Horse, should we be thinking about that as a revenue driver for you guys? Or is that more of kind of a cross-sell opportunity into other areas of the business?

    偉大的。然後對於我的後續行動,關於 DK Horse,我們是否應該將其視為你們的收入驅動因素?或者這更像是一種進入其他業務領域的交叉銷售機會?

  • Jason D. Robins - Co-Founder, Chairman & CEO

    Jason D. Robins - Co-Founder, Chairman & CEO

  • I mean it will have a revenue impact, but it will be fairly de minimis on the year. We're still rolling it out. It's in, I think, 15 states now. So still in the process of doing that. I think we'll have more to say probably, more information on that once we get through the Triple Crown, particularly the Kentucky Derby, which I think will give us a sense of what kind of customer acquisition we can expect.

    我的意思是它會對收入產生影響,但對今年來說影響很小。我們仍在推出它。我認為現在有 15 個州。所以仍在這樣做的過程中。我認為一旦我們通過三冠王,特別是肯塔基賽馬會,我們可能會有更多的話要說,更多信息,我認為這會讓我們了解我們可以期待什麼樣的客戶獲取。

  • And I think really, it's still new enough that I wouldn't necessarily ascribe a whole lot of revenue this year to it. But as we get smarter about how to utilize that product and cross-sell between it in sportsbook and iGaming, I think you'll continue to see a bigger and bigger impact. And it is something that we felt was important to add to our product portfolio, and we'll also work to better integrate long term.

    而且我認為真的,它仍然足夠新,我不一定會將今年的大量收入歸功於它。但隨著我們對如何利用該產品以及在體育博彩和 iGaming 中進行交叉銷售變得更加聰明,我認為您會繼續看到越來越大的影響。我們認為將其添加到我們的產品組合中很重要,我們還將努力更好地長期整合。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • And our next question will come from Ryan Sigdahl of Craig-Hallum Capital Group.

    我們的下一個問題將來自 Craig-Hallum Capital Group 的 Ryan Sigdahl。

  • Ryan Ronald Sigdahl - Partner & Senior Research Analyst of Institutional Research

    Ryan Ronald Sigdahl - Partner & Senior Research Analyst of Institutional Research

  • Nice job. Curious on Massachusetts, So you guys defended your home turf very nicely there. Took #1 handle share by a commanding lead. How important was that psychologically to win the early battleground? And I guess, did you change your spend and your strategy versus running the normal playbook that you say applied in Maryland or Ohio?

    不錯的工作。對馬薩諸塞州感到好奇,所以你們在那裡很好地捍衛了自己的主場。以領先優勢獲得#1 手柄份額。在心理上贏得早期戰場有多重要?而且我想,您是否改變了您的支出和策略,而不是運行您所說的在馬里蘭州或俄亥俄州應用的正常劇本?

  • Jason D. Robins - Co-Founder, Chairman & CEO

    Jason D. Robins - Co-Founder, Chairman & CEO

  • I think, really, the only thing that we changed in terms of strategy was just making it clear that we're a hometown company. And obviously, that's unique to hear. So other than that, it was pretty much the same playbook.

    我認為,真的,我們在戰略方面唯一改變的就是明確表示我們是一家本土公司。顯然,這是獨一無二的。所以除此之外,它幾乎是相同的劇本。

  • I think New England, in particular, we tend to love our own here. So we feel like that was a really good angle for this market, and it worked. It was very effective from a market share perspective and a new customer acquisition perspective. So we'll continue to do that. But otherwise, it's the same state playbook that we've been optimizing over the last 20-plus states.

    我認為尤其是新英格蘭,我們傾向於愛我們自己的地方。所以我們覺得這對這個市場來說是一個非常好的角度,而且它奏效了。從市場份額的角度和新客戶獲取的角度來看,這是非常有效的。所以我們會繼續這樣做。但除此之外,它與我們在過去 20 多個州中一直在優化的州劇本相同。

  • And I think that was the biggest reason that we've had success in penetrating because you saw a similar adult penetration, maybe not quite as much market share, but similar acquisition and adult penetration in Ohio and Maryland as well.

    我認為這是我們在滲透方面取得成功的最大原因,因為你看到了類似的成人滲透,可能沒有那麼多的市場份額,但在俄亥俄州和馬里蘭州也有類似的收購和成人滲透。

  • Ryan Ronald Sigdahl - Partner & Senior Research Analyst of Institutional Research

    Ryan Ronald Sigdahl - Partner & Senior Research Analyst of Institutional Research

  • And then just for my follow-up, with the live Same Game Parlay products for the NBA, Major League Baseball, has that accelerated in-game betting in total? Or is it just a shift in what people are betting on live and being margin accretive rather than incremental?

    然後就我的後續行動而言,使用 NBA 和美國職業棒球大聯盟的現場 Same Game Parlay 產品,這是否加速了比賽中的總投注?或者這只是人們在現場投注和增加利潤而不是增加利潤的轉變?

  • Jason D. Robins - Co-Founder, Chairman & CEO

    Jason D. Robins - Co-Founder, Chairman & CEO

  • No, it's definitely incremental. I mean I think that right now, we're seeing both parlay. I know we talk about parlay a lot, but we're also seeing in-game grow. So there's a lot of upside there.

    不,它絕對是增量的。我的意思是,我認為現在,我們看到了雙贏。我知道我們經常談論 parlay,但我們也看到了遊戲內的成長。所以那裡有很多好處。

  • I think the biggest upside in in-game is just figuring out how to get the video feeds, lower latency for people who want to do that play-by-play type of betting. But no doubt, live Same Game Parlay has driven an increase in engagement in game.

    我認為遊戲中最大的好處就是弄清楚如何獲取視頻源,為那些想要進行逐場投注的人降低延遲。但毫無疑問,現場 Same Game Parlay 推動了遊戲參與度的增加。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • And our next question will come from John DeCree of CBRE.

    我們的下一個問題將來自 CBRE 的 John DeCree。

  • John G. DeCree - Director and Head of North America Equity & High Yield Research

    John G. DeCree - Director and Head of North America Equity & High Yield Research

  • Maybe the first one, which is probably a little bit of summary from a couple of components that we've talked about this morning already. But with structural hold rate going up, and then particularly in vintage cohorts that promotional intensity is moderate here coming down, but yes, your customer retention seems to be increasing nicely, which is a really nice tailwind. I was wondering if you could kind of talk about what you think is kind of driving that success? So presumably, customer value is going up or if they're spending more, but also coming back more frequently.

    也許是第一個,這可能是我們今天上午已經討論過的幾個組件的一些總結。但是隨著結構性持有率的上升,特別是在促銷強度適中的複古群體中,這裡下降了,但是,是的,你的客戶保留率似乎在增加,這是一個非常好的順風。我想知道你是否可以談談你認為是什麼推動了成功?所以可以推測,客戶價值正在上升,或者如果他們花費更多,但也會更頻繁地回來。

  • Jason D. Robins - Co-Founder, Chairman & CEO

    Jason D. Robins - Co-Founder, Chairman & CEO

  • I think it really starts with product -- that our product will create stickier customers. And I think customer experience has been a big focus. We've had significant improvements in our CX year-over-year, including the introduction of chat and other things that I think have helped a lot.

    我認為這真的從產品開始——我們的產品將創造更粘性的客戶。我認為客戶體驗一直是一個重點。我們的 CX 逐年有了顯著改進,包括引入聊天和其他我認為幫助很大的東西。

  • Our CRM, on the marketing front, has been optimized for several years now. And I think we've made a lot of year-over-year improvements in that, especially as it relates to some of the post-Super Bowl retention and cross-sell into iGaming. I think the CRM team has done a fantastic job.

    我們在營銷方面的 CRM 已經優化了好幾年。而且我認為我們在這方面取得了很多同比改進,特別是與超級碗後的一些保留和交叉銷售到 iGaming 相關。我認為 CRM 團隊做得非常出色。

  • Really, it's been execution across the business. I think it's been a lot of really good work by a lot of great people across the whole company.

    真的,它一直在整個企業中執行。我認為整個公司的很多優秀人才都做了很多非常好的工作。

  • John G. DeCree - Director and Head of North America Equity & High Yield Research

    John G. DeCree - Director and Head of North America Equity & High Yield Research

  • That's helpful. And maybe an easy one for Jason Park. I think cash at the end of the year is expected to be around $800 million. In the past, I think you've been comfortable with capitalization, but is it fair to assume with that cash balance and profitability trajectory improving that you're still comfortable with your capitalization at this point?

    這很有幫助。對於 Jason Park 來說,這也許是一件容易的事。我認為年底現金預計在 8 億美元左右。過去,我認為您對資本化感到滿意,但是假設隨著現金餘額和盈利能力軌蹟的改善,您此時仍然對資本化感到滿意,這是否公平?

  • Jason K. Park - CFO

    Jason K. Park - CFO

  • Very comfortable with our capitalization. No need for additional capital.

    對我們的資本化非常滿意。不需要額外的資金。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • And I would now like to turn the conference back to Jason for closing remarks.

    我現在想把會議轉回 Jason 的閉幕詞。

  • Jason D. Robins - Co-Founder, Chairman & CEO

    Jason D. Robins - Co-Founder, Chairman & CEO

  • Thank you all for joining us on today's call. We're off to a strong start in 2023 and are excited about the rest of the year and beyond. I look forward to speaking with you over the next few weeks and hope you all stay safe and well. Thank you.

    感謝大家參加今天的電話會議。我們在 2023 年有了一個良好的開端,並對今年餘下時間及以後的工作感到興奮。我期待著在接下來的幾週內與您交談,並希望您一切安好。謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.

    今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連接。