Draftkings Inc (DKNG) 2025 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Thank you for standing by. Welcome to the DraftKings third quarter 2025 earnings call. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, today's program is being recorded.

感謝您的耐心等待。歡迎參加 DraftKings 2025 年第三季財報電話會議。（操作說明）提醒各位，今天的節目正在錄製中。

And now I'd like to introduce your host for today's program, Michael DeLalio, Senior Director of Investor Relations. Please go ahead, sir.

現在，我謹向大家介紹今天節目的主持人，投資者關係高級總監邁克爾·德拉利奧。請繼續，先生。

Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us today. Certain statements we make during this call may constitute forward-looking statements that are subject to risks, uncertainties, and other factors as discussed further in our SEC filings that could cause our actual results to differ materially from our historical results or from our forecast. We assume no responsibility to update forward-looking statements other than as required by law.

各位早安，感謝大家今天收看我們的節目。我們在本次電話會議中所做的某些陳述可能構成前瞻性陳述，這些陳述受到風險、不確定性和其他因素的影響，這些因素將在我們提交給美國證券交易委員會的文件中進一步討論，這些因素可能導致我們的實際業績與我們的歷史業績或預測存在重大差異。除法律要求外，我們不承擔更新前瞻性陳述的責任。

During this call, management will also discuss certain non-GAAP financial measures that we believe may be useful in evaluating DraftKings' operating performance. These measures should not be considered in isolation or as a substitute for DraftKings' financial results prepared in accordance with GAAP.

在本次電話會議中，管理層還將討論我們認為可能有助於評估 DraftKings 營運績效的某些非 GAAP 財務指標。這些措施不應被孤立地看待，也不應被視為 DraftKings 根據公認會計原則編制的財務表現的替代品。

Reconciliations of these non-GAAP measures to the most directly comparable GAAP measures are available in our earnings release, slide presentation and business update, which can be found on our website and in our quarterly report on Form 10-Q filed with the SEC.

這些非 GAAP 指標與最直接可比較的 GAAP 指標的調整表可在我們的收益發布、幻燈片演示和業務更新中找到，這些內容可在我們的網站上找到，也可在我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的 10-Q 表格季度報告中找到。

Hosting the call today, we have Jason Robins, Co-Founder and Chief Executive Officer of DraftKings, who will share some opening remarks and an update on our business. Following Jason's remarks, our Chief Financial Officer, Alan Ellingson, will provide a brief review of our financials. We will then open the line to questions.

今天主持電話會議的是 DraftKings 的聯合創始人兼首席執行官 Jason Robins，他將發表一些開場白並介紹我們公司的最新情況。在傑森發言之後，我們的財務長艾倫·埃林森將簡要回顧我們的財務狀況。接下來我們將開放提問環節。

I will now turn the call over to Jason Robins.

現在我將把電話交給傑森羅賓斯。

Thank you, Mike. Good morning, everyone, and thank you all for joining. This is the most bullish I've ever felt about the future of DraftKings. This may sound surprising given we are revising our fiscal year 2025 guidance ranges today. However, underlying growth in the business is accelerating.

謝謝你，麥克。各位早安，感謝大家的參與。這是我迄今為止對 DraftKings 的未來最樂觀的一次。考慮到我們今天正在修訂 2025 財年的業績預期範圍，這聽起來可能令人驚訝。然而，業務的潛在成長正在加速。

We are also increasingly advantaged through new exclusive marketing agreements with ESPN and NBCUniversal as well as our leading product offerings continuing to improve. Finally, we are launching DraftKings predictions in the coming months, which we view as a significant incremental opportunity.

此外，我們與 ESPN 和 NBCUniversal 簽訂了新的獨家行銷協議，而我們的領先產品也在不斷改進，這些都使我們獲得了越來越大的優勢。最後，我們將在未來幾個月推出 DraftKings 預測功能，​​我們認為這是一個重要的成長機會。

Overall, I believe that our long-term financial potential has never been brighter. The progress we made over the last few years has been outstanding. In 2022, we reported a little more than $2 billion of revenue and nearly $1 billion of negative adjusted EBITDA.

總而言之，我認為我們的長期財務前景從未如此光明。過去幾年我們所取得的進步非常顯著。2022年，我們的營收略高於20億美元，調整後EBITDA為負近10億美元。

In 2025, only three years later, we expect to generate $5.9 billion to $6.1 billion of revenue and $450 million to $550 million of positive adjusted EBITDA. Our Sportsbook net revenue margin is on track to increase by more than 400 basis points over the last four years, which is more than 100 basis points per year on average as our parlay handle mix and efficiency of promotions all continue to improve.

預計到 2025 年，也就是僅僅三年後，我們將創造 59 億美元至 61 億美元的收入和 4.5 億美元至 5.5 億美元的正調整 EBITDA。過去四年，我們的體育博彩淨收入利潤率預計將成長超過 400 個基點，平均每年增長超過 100 個基點，這得益於我們的串關投注組合和促銷效率的持續提高。

We are achieving this expansion while also maintaining very high customer retention rates. In fact, retention of NFL week-one customers is up over 300 basis points in the last four NFL weeks compared to the same weeks a year ago. Recent product enhancements are also driving strong customer engagement.

我們在實現業務擴張的同時，也維持了非常高的客戶留存率。事實上，過去四周 NFL 第一周的觀眾留存率比去年同期提高了 300 多個百分點。近期產品功能的改進也大大提升了客戶參與度。

NFL handle has grown 13% season to date, and NBA handle has grown 19% season to date, an acceleration compared to the growth we were seeing in recent quarters. That acceleration has continued to build in the first month of the fourth quarter as our total sportsbook handle increased 17% year-over-year in October.

本賽季至今，NFL 的投注額增長了 13%，NBA 的投注額增長了 19%，與最近幾季的增長相比，增速有所加快。這一成長勢頭在第四季度的第一個月繼續增強，10 月份我們的體育博彩總投注額同比增長了 17%。

Parlay handle mix continues to surge with year-over-year gains of 800 bps for NFL season to date and 1,000 bps for NBA season to date. iGaming has been similarly strong with third quarter net revenue growth accelerating to 25% year-over-year, the fastest growth we've experienced since the first quarter of 2024.

串連投注額持續飆升，NFL賽季至今較去年同期成長800個基點，NBA賽季至今較去年同期成長1000個基點。 iGaming業務同樣表現強勁，第三季淨收入年增25%，創下自2024年第一季以來的最快成長速度。

We are even more excited about the future. Our new exclusive marketing agreements with ESPN and NBCUniversal will provide us deeper brand affinity and broader reach, including unmatched NBA access. In fact, early indicators suggest our NBA share is significantly higher than it was at this point last year. Our top-rated sportsbook experience continues to set the standard for speed, depth and breadth, and we will soon launch Spanish language functionality that will meet the demands for a growing audience ahead of the World Cup in 2026.

我們對未來更加充滿期待。我們與 ESPN 和 NBCUniversal 達成的全新獨家行銷協議將使我們獲得更深層的品牌親和力和更廣泛的影響力，包括無與倫比的 NBA 推廣機會。事實上，早期跡象表明，我們目前的 NBA 份額比去年同期要高得多。我們一流的體育博彩體驗在速度、深度和廣度方面持續樹立標桿，我們很快就會推出西班牙語功能，以滿足2026年世界盃前不斷增長的用戶群的需求。

In iGaming, we're developing innovative slot and jackpot content and recently brought in a new leader to solidify and grow our position.

在 iGaming 領域，我們正在開發創新的老虎機和累積獎金遊戲內容，並且最近引入了一位新的領導者來鞏固和發展我們的地位。

The next point I would like to touch on is sport outcomes. We have made significant progress growing our Sportsbook hold percentage and net revenue margin in recent years, primarily due to parlay handle mix increasing while also experiencing short-term positive and negative sport outcome variances. It is important to understand that over the course of most sports seasons, this variance typically evens out and should not be overly significant.

接下來我想談談體育比賽結果。近年來，我們在提高體育博彩盈利比例和淨收入利潤率方面取得了顯著進展，這主要是由於串關投注額的增加，同時也經歷了短期內體育賽事結果的正負波動。需要注意的是，在大多數運動賽季中，這種差異通常會趨於平衡，並且不會過於顯著。

However, because sports seasons do not align with fiscal quarters, there will be certain periods when outcomes positively and negatively impact reported financial results. For example, in the second quarter of 2025, sportsbook-friendly outcomes positively impacted our revenue by roughly $100 million, driving record performance for revenue, adjusted EBITDA, and adjusted EBITDA margin.

然而，由於體育賽季與財政季度不一致，因此在某些時期，比賽結果會對公佈的財務業績產生正面或負面的影響。例如，在 2025 年第二季度，有利於體育博彩的結果對我們的收入產生了約 1 億美元的積極影響，推動了收入、調整後 EBITDA 和調整後 EBITDA 利潤率的創紀錄表現。

Conversely, in September and October, customer-friendly sport outcomes impacted our revenue by more than $300 million as just a handful of NFL games had a pronounced effect. Over the long term, however, sport outcomes do not affect the underlying earnings power of our business, but there will be periods where we can meaningly overperform or underperform our expectations based on these variances.

相反，在 9 月和 10 月，受消費者歡迎的體育賽事結果對我們的收入產生了超過 3 億美元的影響，因為只有少數幾場 NFL 比賽產生了顯著的影響。但從長遠來看，體育比賽結果不會影響我們業務的潛在獲利能力，但在某些時期，我們可能會因為這些波動而顯著超出或低於我們的預期。

I'd also like to touch on the recent rise of predictions. We have experienced numerous waves of competition in recent years, mostly from well-capitalized companies that have built or acquired strong sports betting product offerings, and those have had minimal impact on DraftKings revenue trajectory.

我還想談談最近預測的興起。近年來，我們經歷了多波競爭，主要來自資金雄厚的公司，這些公司建立或收購了強大的體育博彩產品，但這些競爭對 DraftKings 的營收軌跡影響甚微。

By comparison, predictions are structurally limited, lacking the depth and breadth of a sports betting offering. There are also numerous data points from around the globe that validate the predictions in sports is relatively small and largely incremental relative to traditional sports betting.

相較之下，預測在結構上存在局限性，缺乏體育博彩產品的深度和廣度。來自世界各地的大量數據點也證實了體育預測的有效性，與傳統體育博彩相比，體育預測的規模相對較小，且主要以增量為主。

In actuality, we see predictions as a significant incremental opportunity. We are excited about our pending launch of DraftKings predictions and its potential to expand our total addressable market. In the coming months, we expect DraftKings predictions to enter many new states with sport event contracts, unlocking a new customer base and revenue stream.

實際上，我們認為預測是一個重要的增量機會。我們對即將推出的 DraftKings 預測功能及其擴大我們潛在市場規模的潛力感到興奮。在接下來的幾個月裡，我們預計 DraftKings 的預測將透過體育賽事合約進入許多新的州，從而開拓新的客戶群和收入來源。

Nearly half the country's population remains without access to legal online sports betting, but there are several other companies offering federally regulated predictions in all 50 states. As growth in predictions continues, this may also motivate more states to legalize online sports betting and iGaming with reasonable regulation and taxation.

該國近一半人口仍然無法合法進行線上體育博彩，但其他幾家公司在所有 50 個州提供聯邦監管的預測服務。隨著預測數量的持續增長，這可能也促使更多州在合理的監管和稅收政策下，將線上體育博彩和網路遊戲合法化。

To close out my thoughts on predictions, I would leave you all with three key takeaways. First, we will pursue this opportunity, we will compete and we will win. For the same reasons that we have been successful competing in the sports betting industry, we expect to succeed here.

最後，關於預測，我想和大家分享三個關鍵要點。首先，我們將抓住這個機會，我們將參與競爭，我們將取得勝利。鑑於我們在體育博彩行業取得了成功，我們期望在這裡也能取得成功。

Second, we will be thoughtful on how we launch DraftKings predictions and do so in a way that is respectful of other stakeholders. As such, we plan to focus on the states where we do not offer Sportsbook, which is also where we believe the vast majority of the financial opportunity exists.

其次，我們將認真考慮如何推出 DraftKings 預測，並以尊重其他利害關係人的方式進行。因此，我們計劃專注於我們尚未提供體育博彩服務的州，因為我們認為絕大多數的財務機會也存在於這些州。

Third, we will be measured in our investment level, understanding that gross profit payback periods need to be shorter relative to our more established product lines, where we have more predictability around what customers we acquire will be worth over time.

第三，我們將根據投資水平進行衡量，因為我們明白，相對於我們更成熟的產品線，毛利回收期需要更短，而對於我們更成熟的產品線，我們能夠更準確地預測所獲得的客戶隨著時間的推移會帶來多少價值。

Finally, I want to touch on our share repurchase program. We have bought back 9.3 million shares since the inception of this program, and we are pleased to announce that our Board has authorized increasing our repurchase program from $1 billion to $2 billion. We anticipate being active with share repurchases over the next quarter and expect to continue returning capital to our shareholders as free cash flow ramps up over the coming years.

最後，我想談談我們的股票回購計畫。自該計劃啟動以來，我們已回購了 930 萬股股票，我們很高興地宣布，董事會已批准將回購計畫從 10 億美元增加到 20 億美元。我們預計在下一季將積極進行股票回購，並預期隨著未來幾年自由現金流的增加，繼續向股東返還資本。

Thank you all for your support. We promise to continue working relentlessly to create meaningful value for you in 2026 and beyond.

感謝大家的支持。我們承諾在 2026 年及以後繼續不懈努力，為您創造有意義的價值。

Thank you, Jason. Before I cover our fiscal year guidance, I'd like to discuss our third quarter 2025 financial performance. Please note that all income statement measures discussed except for revenue, are on a non-GAAP adjusted EBITDA basis. In the third quarter, we generated $1.144 billion of revenue, representing 4% year-over-year growth. We also generated negative $127 million of adjusted EBITDA.

謝謝你，傑森。在介紹我們本財年的業績預期之前，我想先討論一下我們 2025 年第三季的財務表現。請注意，除收入外，所有討論的損益表指標均以非GAAP調整後的EBITDA為基礎。第三季度，我們創造了 11.44 億美元的收入，年增 4%。我們也產生了負1.27億美元的調整後EBITDA。

First off, we do recognize our third quarter financial results were below our expectations due to the pronounced impact of customer-friendly sports outcomes. In the last two months, these outcomes impacted our revenue by more than $300 million, with just a handful of NFL games having an outsized effect.

首先，我們承認，由於受消費者青睞的體育賽事結果的顯著影響，我們第三季的財務表現低於預期。在過去的兩個月裡，這些結果使我們的收入減少了超過 3 億美元，其中只有少數幾場 NFL 比賽產生了巨大的影響。

But as Jason highlighted, there is a lot to be excited about in our business. Our underlying customer metrics are as strong as they've ever been. Our MUPs growth was healthy, increasing 6% year-over-year when excluding the impact of Jackpocket from all periods.

但正如傑森所強調的，我們這個行業有很多令人興奮的地方。我們的基本客戶指標一如既往地強勁。如果排除 Jackpocket 對所有時期的影響，我們的 MUP 成長狀況良好，年成長 6%。

Customer acquisition was also a bright spot, increasing year-over-year across the entire enterprise and also for direct to Sportsbook despite not having any new state launches. In Sportsbook, we continue to drive strong engagement. Sportsbook handle increased 10% year-over-year to $11.4 billion. As we see strong returns on our promotions, we will adjust our investment levels based on deliberate and calculated return observations. The results of our promotions around the start of the NFL season has been outstanding.

客戶獲取也是一大亮點，儘管沒有推出任何新的州級服務，但整個企業的客戶獲取量以及直接面向體育博彩的客戶獲取量均同比增長。在體育博彩領域，我們持續推動用戶積極參與。體育博彩投注額年增 10%，達到 114 億美元。隨著促銷活動取得顯著成效，我們將根據經過深思熟慮和精心計算的回報情況調整投資水準。我們在 NFL 賽季開始前後開展的促銷活動取得了非常出色的效果。

As Jason mentioned, our October handle accelerated meaningfully year-over-year. That mix improvements are also exceeding what we've been estimating, providing us even more confidence in our long-term Sportsbook hold percentage.

正如傑森所提到的，我們10月份的銷售額年增率顯著。這種組合改進也超過了我們先前的估計，讓我們對體育博彩的長期獲利能力更有信心。

Shifting to iGaming. Our third quarter net revenue reflected a solid acceleration compared to the first half of 2025, driven by strong year-over-year growth in both active customers and net revenue per customer. On a per customer basis, we made strong progress growing gross gaming revenue while also optimizing our promotions for more advanced cohort modeling.

轉向網路遊戲。與 2025 年上半年相比，我們第三季的淨收入實現了穩健成長，這主要得益於活躍客戶數量和每位客戶淨收入的強勁同比增長。從每位客戶的角度來看，我們在提高遊戲總收入方面取得了顯著進展，同時也優化了促銷活動，以實現更高級的客戶群建模。

Now, I'll touch on our fiscal year 2025 guidance. In August, we guided fiscal year 2025 revenue of $6.2 billion to $6.4 billion and adjusted EBITDA of $800 million to $900 million. Based on all of the aforementioned, today, we are providing fiscal year 2025 revenue guidance of $5.9 billion to $6.1 billion and fiscal year 2025 adjusted EBITDA guidance of $450 million to $550 million.

現在，我將談談我們2025財年的業績預期。8 月份，我們預測 2025 財年營收為 62 億美元至 64 億美元，調整後 EBITDA 為 8 億美元至 9 億美元。基於以上所有因素，我們今天給出的 2025 財年收入預期為 59 億美元至 61 億美元，2025 財年調整後 EBITDA 預期為 4.5 億美元至 5.5 億美元。

Our revenue guidance range implies growth of 24% to 28% compared to what we achieved in fiscal year 2024. Notably, our fiscal year 2025 guidance ranges now include the expected launch of a predictions market offering which we're excited about as we begin to look ahead to 2026.

我們的營收預期範圍意味著與 2024 財年相比成長 24% 至 28%。值得注意的是，我們 2025 財年的業績指引範圍現在包括了預測市場產品的預期推出，我們對此感到非常興奮，並開始展望 2026 年。

That concludes our remarks, and we will now open the line for questions.

我們的演講到此結束，現在我們將開放提問環節。

(Operator Instructions) David Katz, Jefferies.

（操作說明）David Katz，傑富瑞集團。

I wanted to ask about OSB hold percentage. Obviously, many of us are struggling with getting our models in the right place. We talk about customer unfriendly that has been more the pattern than the exception of late.

我想諮詢一下OSB的持有率。顯然，我們很多人都在努力將模型放置在正確的位置。我們談論的是不以客戶為中心的問題，這已經成為一種常態，而不是一個例子。

How do you get confidence or help us get confidence that it will and should swing back around? And just talk about the journey of the past year in that regard. Thank you.

如何才能讓我們有信心，或幫助我們有信心，相信這種情況會而且應該好轉？然後就談談過去一年在這方面的歷程。謝謝。

Yeah. I know it definitely is frustrating when you're seeing it happen, and it feels like it's the pattern. I will say probably push back a little bit on that. Last quarter, meaning Q2, we actually had positive outcomes. And I think you see the strength of the business model. We generated over $300 million of adjusted EBITDA in Q2 on positive outcomes.

是的。我知道當這種情況發生時，肯定會讓人感到沮喪，而且感覺這似乎已經成為一種模式。我可能會對此稍作反對。上個季度，也就是第二季度，我們實際上取得了積極的成果。我想你已經看到了這種商業模式的優勢。由於業績表現良好，我們第二季調整後 EBITDA 超過 3 億美元。

So I think it can swing either way, certainly. And this quarter, it unfortunately didn't go our way. October also wasn't a great month for us. But over the course of time, it normalizes. So I think as you're thinking about modeling out years or multiyear period, certainly, I think that can definitely be something where you can assume a smooth curve.

所以我覺得結果確實有可能朝任何方向發展。很遺憾，這個季度我們的運氣不太好。十月對我們來說也不是個好月份。但隨著時間的推移，這種情況會逐漸正常化。所以我認為，當你考慮對數年或多年周期進行建模時，當然，我認為這絕對可以是一個可以假設曲線平滑的情況。

But I think if you look at short periods, you're going to have times when sport outcomes impact results, and there are going to be times where it allows us to overachieve our expectations and times where we fall a little short.

但我認為，如果你從短期來看，你會發現體育比賽的結果有時會影響最終成績，有時會讓我們超額完成目標，有時會讓我們略有不足。

Understood. And if I can ask one very quick follow-up. I noticed that you added an individual to the Board, Greg Wendt, who many of us know is a well-regarded person. I'd love to just get a quick comment on how you see him adding value for DraftKings. Thanks.

明白了。如果可以的話，我想問一個非常簡短的後續問題。我注意到您增加了一位董事會成員，格雷格·溫特，我們很多人都知道他是一位備受尊敬的人。我想聽聽你對他能為 DraftKings 帶來哪些價值的看法。謝謝。

Well, first of all, Greg is a great addition. We're really excited to have him on the Board. I've known Greg for many years. He is obviously an expert as it comes to investing. He's been a long-time gaming investor. So -- and also very recently left that position. So I think what's nice is he's somebody that we can talk to that has a really strong perspective on what investors are thinking and understands capital markets really, really well.

首先，格雷格的加入非常棒。我們非常高興他能加入董事會。我認識格雷格很多年了。他顯然是一位投資專家。他長期以來一直投資遊戲產業。所以——而且就在不久前也離開了那個職位。所以我覺得他的優點在於，我們可以和他對投資人的想法有非常深刻的見解，並且對資本市場有著非常非常深入的了解。

He has tremendous connections on the public affairs side. He is an all around smart guy and really I think is going to contribute to the strategy and direction of the company. So we're really excited to have Greg. And just had him in our first Board meeting this week and looking forward to his contributions.

他在公共事務領域人脈廣。他是個各方面都很聰明的人，我認為他一定會為公司的策略和發展方向做出貢獻。所以我們很高興格雷格能加入我們。本週他參加了我們的第一次董事會會議，期待他能做出貢獻。

Stephen Grambling, Morgan Stanley.

史蒂芬‧格林布林，摩根士丹利。

As a quick follow-up to David's question on hold, aside from just hitting structural hold, I think one of the concerns is whether parlays also increase the overall volatility of hold. So what do you think are the biggest opportunities to dampen the volatility over time? Or how do you think about balancing pushing higher structural hold versus potentially higher volatility?

作為 David 關於持有策略問題的快速跟進，除了達到結構性持有狀態之外，我認為其中一個擔憂是，串關是否也會增加持有策略的整體波動性。那麼，您認為隨著時間的推移，降低市場波動性的最大機會是什麼？或者，您如何看待在提高結構穩定性和潛在的更高波動性之間取得平衡？

Well, I think we always view it as we should maximize long-term value. And obviously, in some cases, that may come with some increased beta. But I think that over the course of time, maximizing long-term expected value is the right strategy as long as you're managing risk in a way that's appropriate.

我認為我們始終應該從最大化長期價值的角度來看這個問題。顯然，在某些情況下，這可能會帶來一些增加的β值。但我認為，從長遠來看，只要你以適當的方式管理風險，最大化長期預期價值就是正確的策略。

Really, where this occurs most acutely is when you have sports or individual events that are very concentrated. So something like baseball or basketball where there's long seasons with many, many games, you're going to see less of that. Something like an NFL weekend or Super Bowl or March Madness or a big fight, you could see bigger swings because those are individual events where a single outcome affects a large volume of betting.

實際上，這種情況在非常集中的體育賽事或個人賽事中最為明顯。所以像棒球或籃球這種賽季漫長、比賽很多很多的運動，這種情況就會比較少見。像 NFL 週末、超級盃、瘋狂三月或大型拳擊比賽這樣的賽事，投注額可能會出現更大的波動，因為這些都是個別事件，單一結果會影響大量的投注。

And there aren't other events to offset it and to normalize over time. So I think that's just the nature of the business. And what we do is we certainly make sure we're managing risk. If you look at the overall negative outcome impact we've experienced this year, it's only around 5% of our total revenue.

而且也沒有其他事件可以抵消這種影響，並隨著時間的推移而使其正常化。所以我覺得這就是這個行業的本質。我們所做的，當然是確保風險管理到位。如果縱觀我們今年所經歷的整體負面影響，它只占我們總收入的 5% 左右。

So obviously, in a given quarter when a lot of that hits, that can be meaningful. But from a risk management and from a cash flow and making sure that we're still generating profit and liquidity, I think that's something that we always keep in mind. And so we won't take liabilities above a certain level. And if we ever did need to, we would find ways to hedge off or we wouldn't take them at all. But I think within that constraint, being able to know that you're maximizing EV is important.

所以很明顯，在某個季度，當很多這樣的事情發生時，就會產生重大影響。但從風險管理、現金流量以及確保我們繼續產生利潤和流動性的角度來看，我認為這是我們始終牢記在心的事情。因此，我們不會承擔超過一定水準的負債。如果真的需要，我們會想辦法規避風險，或乾脆不採取這些措施。但我認為，在這種限制下，能夠知道自己正在最大化電動車的電動車性能是很重要的。

And obviously, if that comes with some ups and downs, so be it. But as long as you can manage the business in a way that you're managing that risk, I think maximizing long-term value is the way to go.

當然，如果過程中會有起伏，那就順其自然吧。但是，只要你能以管理風險的方式來經營業務，我認為最大化長期價值才是正確的方向。

Fair enough. And if I can sneak one on the prediction markets. I think similar to the start of online sports betting, there's a lot of concern about what profitability looks like here. I think you mentioned the shorter payback window potentially or what you hope.

很公平。如果我能偷偷在預測市場上贏一筆就好了。我認為這與線上體育博彩的興起類似，人們非常關心這裡的獲利前景如何。我想你提到過可能更短的投資回收期，或者說你希望如此。

Can you elaborate on how you think about the profitability of a prediction market product? And any initial thoughts on what investment could look like if the market plays out the way you hope?

能否詳細談談您如何看待預測市場產品的獲利能力？如果市場走勢如你所願，你對投資方面有什麼初步想法？

Well, I think what we're going to do is the same thing we do with everything, which is we're going to be very data-driven, very analytical here. Starting off with very conservative views on LTV and very conservative approach to payback periods, I think, is smart because, one, we don't have any data. So in absence of that being conservative, it's always best.

我認為，我們將採取與處理所有事情相同的方式，那就是非常注重數據驅動和分析。我認為，一開始就對 LTV 持非常保守的看法，對投資回收期採取非常保守的做法是明智的，因為，首先，我們沒有任何數據。所以，在沒有保守主義的情況下，保守主義總是最好的選擇。

And two, we don't really know what the future of this product will ultimately look like. As we've noted, I think, as this continues, states will legalize OSB now. That might be helpful because those customers may convert. But the actual predictions product is unknown at this point in terms of what the longevity of customers will look like, what the spend will look like. The products themselves are super nascent. So I imagine retention initially is going to be a challenge. And over time, I think it will get better, same with monetization, but they're very bare bones at this point.

第二，我們真的不知道這款產品的未來最終會是什麼樣子。正如我們所指出的，我認為，隨著這種情況的持續發展，各州現在將會將定向刨花板合法化。這或許會有幫助，因為這些客戶可能會轉換。但就目前而言，預測結果究竟如何，例如顧客的生命週期會是怎麼樣的，消費狀況會是怎樣的，都還不得而知。這些產品本身還處於非常初級的階段。所以我認為初期留住用戶會是個挑戰。我認為隨著時間的推移，情況會好轉，獲利模式也會如此，但目前來說，它們還非常簡陋。

So I think while certainly an exciting area and one that we really are excited and bullish about, it is still so early and a lot of unknowns, and we have zero data. We haven't launched a product and don't know anything yet. Once we start to gather data, we're going to make different decisions. We're going to look at what the data says, and we're going to adjust. I don't see us dramatically extending the payback period.

所以我認為，雖然這無疑是一個令人興奮的領域，也是我們真正感到興奮和看好的領域，但現在還處於非常早期的階段，有很多未知因素，我們沒有任何數據。我們還沒有推出產品，對一切都還一無所知。一旦我們開始收集數據，我們將做出不同的決定。我們將查看數據，並做出調整。我認為我們不會大幅延長投資回收期。

So I think we'll keep conservative on that, but we'll have much more precise data with which to make those decisions. It won't be as much of an estimate. So we'll be able to be a little bit more of a lean in there. And as far as total investment, because we don't have that data yet, I really don't know. It could be anything, but we're not going to spend foolishly.

所以我認為我們會在這方面保持保守態度，但我們會掌握更精確的數據來做這些決定。這不算是準確的估計。所以我們可以更積極地參與其中。至於總投資金額，因為我們還沒有這方面的數據，所以我真的不知道。可能是任何東西，但我們不會亂花錢。

If we find that we're not able to get the kinds of returns that we want, then we won't do it. The other thing I will say is that because we have so many -- we have such a great presence across the sports and media landscape already, we don't think there needs to be a ton of incremental spend, at least on the national level here. There might be some incremental local spend in key states. But I think on the national level, we feel like a lot of what we already have can be used to effectively get this message across as well.

如果我們發現無法獲得我們想要的利益，那麼我們就不會去做。我還要補充一點，因為我們在體育和媒體領域已經擁有如此多的影響力，所以我們認為至少在國家層面上，不需要大量的額外支出。一些重點州可能會出現一些額外的本地支出。但我認為在國家層面，我們感覺現有的許多資源也可以用來有效地傳遞這個訊息。

I'm going to jump in here, too. This is Mike. Analysts, as a reminder, please stick to one question. We have a lot of participants in the queue.

我也要插一句。這是麥克。分析師們，再次提醒一下，請只提一個問題。排隊的人很多。

Dan Politzer, JPMorgan.

丹‧波利策，摩根大通。

On prediction markets, Jason, maybe can you talk about the conversations that you've had with regulators and shed light on why you feel comfortable proceeding here when certainly some of your larger peers have not. And along those lines, how you see the prediction market product evolving in the coming years, just given this is where a lot of attention from investors is right now?

關於預測市場，Jason，或許你可以談談你與監管機構的對話，並闡明為什麼你覺得可以放心地在這裡開展業務，而你的一些規模更大的同行卻不敢。基於此，您認為預測市場產品在未來幾年會如何發展？畢竟，目前投資者對預測市場產品給予了極大的關注。

Well, first, obviously, we really value and treat as with the utmost importance our relationships with the regulators and policymakers in the states where we are licensed and operate. So we have had numerous conversations with them and wanted to make sure that when we were acquiring Railbird and other things like that, they were hearing from us and understood what the rationale behind it was and how we are thinking about it.

首先，很顯然，我們非常重視並極度重視與我們獲得許可和營運所在州的監管機構和政策制定者的關係。因此，我們與他們進行了多次對話，希望確保在收購 Railbird 和其他類似公司時，他們能夠聽到我們的意見，並了解背後的理由以及我們的想法。

So I think through the strength of those relationships and conversations, we got comfort in the approach that we're taking. And as I said in our note on the call, we aren't going to be in every state with sports. So we won't even be in every state with non-sports.

所以我認為，正是憑藉這些關係和對話的力量，我們對我們正在採取的方法感到放心。正如我在電話會議記錄中所說，我們不可能在每個州都舉辦體育賽事。所以，即使有非體育項目，我們也無法涵蓋所有州。

And I think we have a good sense of where the sensitivity areas are. And the good news is, as I've said in the past, I think it aligns also with the opportunity. I think the states that already have legal regulated online sports betting, there isn't going to be as much opportunity in the prediction space, at least in the sports prediction space.

我認為我們對敏感區域的位置已經有了比較清晰的認識。好消息是，正如我之前所說，我認為這也與機會相符。我認為，在那些已經合法監管線上體育博彩的州，預測領域的機會不會太多，至少在體育預測領域是如此。

So to me, that also is -- kind of makes it a no-brainer to focus on the states that don't have online sports betting already.

所以對我來說，這也意味著，將重點放在那些還沒有線上體育博彩的州是理所當然的。

And then -- sorry, and how you see this product evolving? Do you think it's just limited to sports or it evolves into a broader subset of prediction offerings over time, gaming, all the other stuff kind of under the hood?

然後——不好意思，您認為這款產品將如何發展？你認為它僅限於體育領域，還是隨著時間的推移，它會發展成為更廣泛的預測服務，包括遊戲以及其他一些底層功能？

I think if you look overseas, sports is really where most of the concentration and volume is. Even here in the US, sports is what's driving all the growth. So I mean, not to say there won't be other things. I know elections are popular, too. In certain places, we'll be able to offer that as well.

我認為，如果你看看海外市場，你會發現體育領域才是真正集中、規模最大的領域。即使在美國，體育運動也是推動經濟成長的主要動力。我的意思是，並不是說不會有其他事情發生。我知道選舉也很受歡迎。在某些地方，我們也能提供這項服務。

But I think that for the most part, the volume and opportunity is going to be in the sports space. Not to say there couldn't be other innovations and things that create opportunities over the long term, but that's less proven, and I think something that at this point, we don't have as much certainty.

但我認為，大部分的機會和機會都將在體育領域。並不是說不會有其他創新和事物在長期內創造機會，但這方面還沒有得到充分證實，我認為在目前這個階段，我們對此還沒有十足的把握。

Clark Lampen, BTIG.

克拉克·蘭彭，BTIG。

I'll keep the, I guess, theme going here with prediction. Jason, I'd like to, I guess, just get a little bit more specificity around the significance comment in the letter. Is that largely going to be just customer access in new states? Or is there -- as you guys think about winning, as you put it in this market, where can you guys, I guess, bring something unique here to the extension to extract some value that maybe others can't? Thank you.

我想，我還是會繼續這個主題，在這裡做些預測。傑森，我想請你更具體地解釋一下信中提到的重要性問題。這主要是指在新州開展客戶准入業務嗎？或者說——正如你們在這個市場中所說的那樣，你們認為贏得勝利的關鍵是什麼？你們能否為這個擴充功能帶來一些獨特的東西，從而獲得一些其他人可能無法獲得的價值？謝謝。

Yeah. I mean to the extent that everyone is viewing this as competitive, I think it's the same way we compete with anyone. We would go out and out execute across all the key things that matter, product, customer experience, marketing, all those things are things that we have an extraordinary amount of data and expertise around and systems and processes that we've built that at scale are able to perform at the highest of levels and compete with the toughest of competition.

是的。我的意思是，如果大家都把這看作是一場競爭，我認為這和我們與任何人競爭的方式都是一樣的。我們會全力以赴地執行所有重要的關鍵事項，包括產品、客戶體驗、行銷等等。在這些方面，我們擁有大量的數據和專業知識，我們已經建立了能夠大規模地發揮最高水準並與最激烈的競爭相抗衡的系統和流程。

So I view that as a huge advantage that we're going to have along with our brand and the fact that people already associate us with sports. Add in some of the media assets that we have and the partnerships that we have, I think it's going to be really tough for anyone to compete with us. And I expect for the same reason that we've been able to do well against other new competitive entrants in the market, and there have been many, many of them over the years, as you all know.

所以我認為，加上我們的品牌以及人們已經將我們與運動聯繫起來的事實，這將是我們的一大優勢。再加上我們擁有的一些媒體資源和合作夥伴關係，我認為任何人想要與我們競爭都將非常困難。我認為，正是出於同樣的原因，我們才能在與市場上其他新競爭對手的較量中取得成功。眾所周知，這些年來，市場上湧現了許多新的競爭對手。

We've continued to chug along. We've continued to perform. So it's really the same reasons as those things. And I think in this case, we're actually starting from an even more advantageous position because we know more and have more scale and more expertise than we did a few years ago.

我們一直在穩步前進。我們一直在繼續演出。所以原因其實跟那些事情一樣。我認為在這種情況下，我們實際上是從一個更有利的位置出發，因為我們比幾年前掌握了更多的信息，擁有更大的規模和更豐富的專業知識。

So I think it's going to be tough to beat us. It's not that I'm taking anything for granted. Obviously, we're going to go out and we're going to compete hard. But I do feel very good about where we're going to be able to find our place in this space.

所以我覺得想要打敗我們很難。我並不是把一切都視為理所當然。很顯然，我們會全力以赴，努力競爭。但我對我們在這個領域找到自己的定位感到非常有信心。

Robert Fishman, MoffettNathanson.

Robert Fishman，MoffettNathanson。

On the ESPN deal, there's a long history between your companies. I'm just wondering if you can discuss how this deal came together and why you think today, it makes sense for DraftKings. And how important do you expect the integration in their apps to be as a future growth driver for DraftKings going forward?

關於與 ESPN 的合作協議，你們公司之間有著悠久的合作歷史。我只是想請您談談這筆交易是如何達成的，以及您為什麼認為這筆交易對 DraftKings 來說是明智之舉。您認為將 DraftKings 的應用程式整合視為未來成長驅動力會有多重要？

Good morning. Thanks, Robert. So first, very excited about this. I mean, as you noted, we've had a long relationship with ESPN back a decade plus ago in fantasy sports through the early days of sports betting and really happy to be reunited with them again in a long-term strategic deal.

早安.謝謝你，羅伯特。首先，我對此感到非常興奮。我的意思是，正如你所指出的，我們與 ESPN 在十多年前的夢幻體育和體育博彩早期就建立了長期的合作關係，我們非常高興能夠再次與他們達成長期戰略協議。

So one, as you know, they're the premier sports brand in property. And between them and some of the others like NBCUniversal and Amazon that we have, we just have an unbelievable presence across sports media.

如你所知，他們是房地產領域首屈一指的運動品牌。再加上我們旗下的其他一些公司，例如 NBCUniversal 和 Amazon，我們在體育媒體領域擁有令人難以置信的影響力。

I think with ESPN, though, as you said, they have an app. They have a fantasy database and app that is as big as anything in the world in that category. They just have so many different channels and brands and also great talent. Really, it's going to be something that we leverage across all elements of what we do from the product to our marketing.

不過，如你所說，ESPN 有自己的應用程式。他們擁有一個奇幻資料庫和應用程序，其規模在同類產品中堪稱世界一流。他們擁有許多不同的頻道和品牌，還有很多優秀的人才。實際上，我們將把這項技術運用到我們工作的各個方面，從產品到行銷。

And I think having somebody that can not only help advertise as a partner and help bring in new customers, but can truly help you engage your existing customers, too, with things, yes, in their content, but also things that potentially can be integrated, like you mentioned the app on the digital side with product.

我認為，找到一個不僅能作為合作夥伴幫助宣傳推廣、吸引新客戶，還能真正幫助你與現有客戶互動的人非常重要，這不僅體現在他們的內容中，也體現在可以整合的內容中，就像你提到的數位應用程式與產品整合一樣。

I think that can just take this to a whole new level. So I'm thrilled. And if you look also at their trajectory, it's unbelievable. Some of the deals that they've been rumored to be doing and some of the new apps and things that they're launching. I think that being with a company that's also aggressive and wants to grow and wants to really increase their presence in the sports landscape, that's somebody that you can grow alongside with.

我認為這能把事情提升到一個全新的高度。我太激動了。如果你再看看他們的發展軌跡，那就更不可思議了。據傳他們正在達成一些交易，以及他們即將推出的一些新應用和產品。我認為，加入一家同樣積極進取、渴望發展壯大、並希望真正擴大其在體育領域影響力的公司，你就能與該公司共同成長。

So very excited and really happy to be working alongside them. Again, Jimmy Pitaro has been a long-time friend, a great guy and somebody that I know passionately cares about sports betting and knows how important it is for engaging their fans and their consumers, too. So I'm just thrilled and really excited about this partnership.

非常激動，也很高興能和他們一起工作。再說一遍，吉米·皮塔羅是我的老朋友，他是個很棒的人，我知道他非常關心體育博彩，也知道這對吸引粉絲和消費者有多重要。所以我對這次合作感到非常興奮和興奮。

Robin Farley, UBS.

羅賓法利，瑞銀集團。

Great. I would love to ask about the -- how we should think about that split of the $300 million, how much of that was in Q3 versus falling in Q4, just so we could kind of quantify for ourselves a little bit what the structural hold increase was.

偉大的。我想問一下——我們應該如何看待這 3 億美元的分配，其中有多少是第三季的，又有多少是第四季的，這樣我們就可以稍微量化一下結構性成長的幅度。

But if I only get one question, maybe I would ask that the -- going back to prediction markets for a moment and your ability -- in terms of your competitive offering and your ability to offer parlays, can you talk a little bit about, I assume, your access to the official sports data or there are other things that will enable you to offer a parlay product that is significantly different than maybe what other prediction markets are able to offer? Or not? Any thoughts on that?

但如果我只能問一個問題，我想問的是——讓我們回到預測市場以及你們的能力——就你們的競爭優勢和串關投注能力而言，你們能否談談，我猜想，你們獲取官方體育數據的渠道，或者還有其他因素使你們能夠提供與其他預測市場截然不同的串關投注產品？或不？對此有什麼看法？

So I'll let Mike follow up offline with you on the first question. But on the second one, I think parlays are just challenging with predictions because it's liquidity based. So you can do some prepackaged stuff, and I think that could work. But to be able to really have a parlay offering that looks anything like what you'd find in an online sportsbook just isn't possible. The reason being that on the online sportsbook, we can say, what do you want to do?

那麼，關於第一個問題，我會讓麥克私下跟你解答。但對於第二個問題，我認為串關投注的預測之所以具有挑戰性，是因為它取決於流動性。所以你可以做一些預先準備好的東西，我認為這或許可行。但要真正提供像線上體育博彩網站那樣豐富的串關投注選項，目前還是不可能的。原因在於，在線上體育博彩平台上，我們可以問：“你想做什麼？”

And then as the market maker, we could say, okay, we will make you a market for that. Here you go, here are the odds. And we can do that knowing exactly what the requested amount of the bet is and who's making it. In this case, you have to, as a market maker, create liquidity pools around these things. And you don't always have control over who's on the other side and who's taking how much of your order volume and things like that.

然後作為做市商，我們可以說，好的，我們會為你創造一個市場。給你，這是賠率。而且，我們完全可以根據投注金額和投注者的身份來做到這一點。在這種情況下，作為做市商，你必須圍繞這些資產創建流動性池。而且你並不總是能控制對方是誰，誰會拿走你多少訂單量等等。

And also just having to have individual liquidity pools makes it hard because then you spread out your liquidity. So I just think it's going to be very challenging to do all the kinds of combinability that you can do in a traditional sports book.

而且，僅僅因為需要設立獨立的流動性池就很難實現，因為這樣會分散你的流動性。所以我認為，要像傳統運動博彩那樣實現各種組合投注，將會非常具有挑戰性。

We will, I think, because of our pricing models and because of some of the other IP that we have, be able to put out, I feel, a better version of that than others in the industry. But I still think it will be very limited compared to what you would find in our traditional sports betting product.

我認為，由於我們的定價模式以及我們擁有的其他一些智慧財產權，我們將能夠推出比業內其他公司更好的版本。但我仍然認為，與我們傳統的體育博彩產品相比，它的選擇將非常有限。

Brandt Montour, Barclays.

Brandt Montour，巴克萊銀行。

So if we look at the luck impact to the full-year guide of $300 million, and I know you didn't quantify that versus third quarter versus fourth quarter. But more on the full year, I mean, if you look at that -- if you just sort of assume a flow-through and then look at the full year guide down to EBITDA, there's obviously a pretty decent gap there between those two. And so what is that gap broken out between higher promo than expected spend at this maybe early spend with the ESPN partnership, NBC spend and obviously, any sort of early prediction spend?

所以，如果我們看一下運氣對全年3億美元業績指引的影響，我知道你沒有量化第三季和第四季的業績差異。但就全年而言，我的意思是，如果你看看全年——如果你假設一個傳遞過程，然後查看全年指引直至 EBITDA，很明顯這兩者之間存在相當大的差距。那麼，在與 ESPN 合作的早期推廣支出、NBC 的支出以及任何形式的早期預測支出中，高於預期的推廣支出之間的差距是多少呢？

Yes, it's a good question. So most of it is outcomes. There are a few other little things in there. Probably most notably, as you said, there is some assumption in Q4 for prediction spend, which, as we noted, will be very analytically driven, at least with any marketing portion. So I don't know if that will be -- I think we made sure we had enough, but I don't know that we would need to spend it all.

是的，這是個好問題。所以大部分都是結果。裡面還有一些其他的小東西。最值得注意的是，正如您所說，第四季度對預測支出有一些假設，正如我們所指出的，至少在任何行銷部分，這些假設都將非常依賴分析。所以我不知道結果會不會是這樣——我覺得我們已經確保有足夠的資金，但我不知道我們是否需要全部花掉。

And then there is some also investment on the product and technology side, getting ramped up for customer service, everything else in order to launch the product. I don't know exactly when we'll launch it, but we want to make sure we had enough budget in there to be able to develop and launch it in Q4 if it were ready. So that's something that we're certainly pushing towards. But I do expect it will be at some point in the next couple of months.

此外，在產品和技術方面也進行了一些投資，提高了客戶服務水平，以及其他一切為了推出產品所需的措施。我還不確定具體何時發布，但我們希望確保有足夠的預算，以便在第四季度能夠開發並發布（如果一切就緒的話）。所以，這絕對是我們努力的方向。但我預計會在未來幾個月內的某個時候發生。

Jed Kelly, Oppenheimer.

傑德凱利，奧本海默。

Great. As we think about next year, obviously, prediction markets are going to be a decent level of incremental investments. But can you sort of highlight or help us bridge where else you're looking to invest? I mean, the OSB product is very good. I'm sure you want to invest in that.

偉大的。展望明年，很顯然，預測市場將會帶來相當可觀的增量投資。能否簡單介紹一下您還有哪些投資意願？或是幫我們整理一下您還有哪些投資計畫？我的意思是，OSB產品非常好。我相信你肯定想投資那個。

And then you recently hired a new iGaming person, too. So can you just help us understand how you're thinking about investments for next year outside of prediction markets?

而你們最近還聘請了一位新的網路遊戲專員。那麼，您能否幫我們了解一下，除了預測市場之外，您對明年的投資有何考慮？

Yeah. I think in terms of the, what we call, core business, meaning the OSB and iGaming products and the states that we have been in for at least a few years, I don't think you're going to see much, if any, incremental investment. In fact, we might actually see a little bit of reduction in things like promotion and marketing.

是的。我認為就我們所謂的核心業務而言，也就是 OSB 和 iGaming 產品以及我們至少幾年來一直處於的狀態，我認為你不會看到多少，甚至不會有任何新增投資。事實上，我們可能會看到促銷和行銷等方面的支出略有減少。

I do think in the newer states, Missouri being obviously one that's launching at the end of this year, we'll continue to invest next year if any other states launch. And I am hopeful that we get some iGaming and sports betting bills done next year.

我認為，在那些較新的州，例如今年年底即將啟動的密蘇裡州，如果明年還有其他州啟動，我們將繼續投資。我希望明年我們能通過一些關於網路博彩和體育博彩的法案。

Obviously, predictions, as you noted, is somewhere we will be making an investment, although we, as noted earlier, are going to be appropriately conservative and seek faster paybacks on that than we do on the other products. The other area I'd mention is AI.

顯然，正如您所指出的，預測是我們將進行投資的領域，儘管正如之前提到的，我們將採取適當的保守策略，並尋求比其他產品更快的回報。我想提到的另一個領域是人工智慧。

I think AI is somewhere that there will be -- it will be a two-way thing. There will be some places where we're actually able to reduce costs next year, but there will also be some incremental investment, which has a longer tail on where we see the efficiency and revenue generation impacts. And so some of that, but maybe not all of it would pay back in 2026.

我認為人工智慧將會是一個雙向的過程。明年我們確實可以在一些方面降低成本，但同時也會有一些增量投資，這些投資的效率和收入影響需要更長時間才能顯現。因此，其中一些投入可能會在 2026 年得到回報，但可能並非全部。

But I think that's an area that we need to be investing in and could have potentially a very significant impact on both our cost structure and revenue trajectory in '26 and beyond.

但我認為這是我們需要投資的領域，並且可能會對我們 2026 年及以後的成本結構和收入軌跡產生非常重大的影響。

Shaun Kelley, BofA.

Shaun Kley，美國銀行。

Jason, maybe just to connect the two topics of the morning, prediction and pricing. Wondering if you could just talk a little bit about -- there's a fairly large narrative from the prediction market side of the world about sort of longer-term pressure on hold rates for the industry. And I'm really talking about straight bets and pricing to the customer. So just wondering if we could get your thoughts on that. And then just how price-sensitive or price aware, do you actually think customers really are in the Sportsbook ecosystem relative to products?

傑森，或許只是想把今天早上討論的兩個主題——預測和定價——連結起來。想請您談談—目前預測市場方面普遍認為，該行業的持有率面臨長期壓力。我真正想談的是直接向客戶下注和定價。所以，我們只是想聽聽您對此的看法。那麼，你認為體育博彩生態系統中的顧客對產品的價格敏感度或價格意識究竟有多高？

And does that give you some flex to be able to manage long tail events and other things like that? Appreciate it.

這樣是否能讓你在處理長尾事件和其他類似事情時擁有一定的彈性？謝謝。

Yes. So we'll obviously -- we'll have to see how it plays out. But if you look at pricing now, it's actually a little bit worse on predictions. And I think it's going to be hard to get to a point where it's better, right? If you remember, for us, the reason we have higher margins is -- meaning higher hold rate, sorry, is because we have a very strong bet mix.

是的。所以很顯然，我們得看看事情會如何發展。但如果你看看現在的定價，你會發現預測結果其實更糟一些。我認為要達到更好的狀態恐怕很難，對吧？如果你還記得的話，我們之所以能獲得更高的利潤率——也就是說更高的持倉率，抱歉——是因為我們擁有非常強大的投注組合。

Our singles hold is actually nowhere near what our actual hold rate is. Our singles hold is in the mid-single digits. So that's sort of the comparison point if you're thinking about predictions. Now on predictions, you have both the fees that the exchange is taking as well as the other fees that are collected from the FCM or anyone else in the ecosystem as well as the spreads that the market makers are taking. So there's a lot more mouth to feed in the ecosystem versus, in our case, we are the market maker solely on our online sportsbook and -- well, at least for about 99% or 95%-plus of our stuff.

我們的單筆交易持有率實際上遠低於我們的實際持有率。我們的單場持倉量在個位數中段。所以，如果你在考慮預測問題，這大概就是比較的基準點。現在來說說預測，其中既包括交易所收取的費用，也包括從期貨佣金商 (FCM) 或生態系統中的其他任何人收取的費用，以及做市商收取的點差。因此，生態系統中需要養活的人口比我們多得多，就我們而言，我們只是我們在線體育博彩的做市商，而且——至少對於我們大約 99% 或 95% 以上的業務來說是這樣。

So really, it makes it that we have more margin to play with there. The other thing is even if there are cases where there's better pricing, promotions don't really work in the same way in predictions as they do in OSB. So we can give back money and help create cool profit boost and other promotions for customers that engage them, which really isn't something that predictions is doing. In fact, predictions is really using rebates to incentivize the market makers to create liquidity. So it's almost the opposite.

所以實際上，這讓我們有了更大的操作空間。另外，即使有價格較優惠的情況，促銷活動在預測中的作用方式也與在 OSB 中的作用方式不同。這樣我們就可以回饋客戶，幫助他們創造酷炫的利潤成長和其他促銷活動，從而提高客戶參與度，而這並非預測所能做到的。事實上，預測機制其實是利用返利來激勵做市商創造流動性。所以情況幾乎正好相反。

They're giving the promos, so to speak, to the people who are actually trying to make money on the platform and the retail customer is not getting that. So for a variety of reasons, I think the value prop is going to be better. And maybe that gap closes a little bit. But right now, it's not even close. Right now, it's a much better value prop in terms of the overall pricing and promotions that you get using an online sportsbook.

他們實際上是把促銷活動提供給了那些真正想透過平台賺錢的人，而零售客戶卻享受不到這些優惠。因此，出於各種原因，我認為它的價值主張會更好。或許這個差距會縮小一些。但就目前而言，差距還很大。就目前而言，線上體育博彩的整體定價和促銷活動而言，它的性價比要高得多。

Bernie McTernan, Needham & Company.

伯尼·麥克特南，尼德姆公司。

Jason, historically, the online sports betting industry has competed on a variety of different metrics like daily fantasy, capital mattered a lot and marketing budgets mattered along with liquidity. Online sports betting promotion mattered a lot early days and now more various aspects of the product. What do you think the battle will be on in prediction markets?

傑森，從歷史上看，線上體育博彩行業一直在各種不同的指標上競爭，例如每日夢幻體育、資金、行銷預算以及流動性都非常重要。線上體育博彩推廣在早期非常重要，而現在則影響產品的各個方面。你認為預測市場的競爭焦點會是什麼？

And maybe a follow-up to the last question, what is the risk that it does evolve into promo over time?

或許可以接著上一個問題問：隨著時間的推移，它演變成促銷活動的風險有多大？

Well, I think the first battle is going to be for customers, but it depends on who you're talking about and what parts of the ecosystem. For the exchanges, the battle is going to be for liquidity. And so that's the key thing, much like it was in daily fantasy sports. I think if you look at the FCMs or the IBs that are plugged into them, it's going to be much more about customer acquisition cost versus LTV generation. So that will be about how well you market and engage and monetize the customer.

我認為第一場戰鬥將是爭奪客戶，但這取決於你指的是誰以及生態系統的哪些部分。對交易所而言，爭奪的焦點將是流動性。所以，關鍵就在這裡，就像在每日夢幻體育中一樣。我認為，如果你觀察 FCM 或與其對接的 IB，你會發現，關鍵在於客戶獲取成本與 LTV 產生之間的關係。所以，關鍵在於你如何有效地進行行銷、與客戶互動以及實現客戶變現。

Now in our case, because we bought Railbird, we're going to have both pieces of the ecosystem. So we have to be thinking about both. But at least in today's world, most of it it's not connected in that way. There's separation between those. So it will really depend on how things vertically integrate over time. But that's the best way to explain.

現在，因為我們收購了 Railbird，所以我們將擁有生態系統的這兩個部分。所以我們必須同時考慮這兩方面。但至少在當今世界，大部分事物並非以這種方式連結在一起。它們之間是有區別的。所以，這真的取決於各個環節如何隨著時間的推移進行垂直整合。但這是最好的解釋方式。

I think for the exchanges, it's about liquidity and for the front end, the FCMs, the IBs, it's much more about the CAC to LTV equation and being able to engage, retain and monetize customers as well as acquire them efficiently.

我認為對於交易所來說，關鍵在於流動性；而對於前端平台，例如期貨佣金商 (FCM) 和介紹經紀商 (IB) 來說，關鍵在於客戶獲取成本 (CAC) 與客戶終身價值 (LTV) 的比值，以及如何有效地吸引、留住客戶、實現客戶變現並獲取客戶。

Joe Stauff, Susquehanna.

喬·斯托夫，薩斯奎哈納。

Okay. Good morning, Jason. I wanted to ask, it's always difficult to reconcile from a regulatory and a legislature perspective for the states. We know -- obviously, we're well aware that the regulators know in the various states and obviously talking about predictions. But just wondering if, to the extent you could help us fill in whether or not the legislators are aware of this as we go into a newer session in early '26 and the implications on the competitive landscape?

好的。早上好，傑森。我想問的是，從各州的監管和立法角度來看，這總是很難協調一致的。我們知道——顯然，我們很清楚各州的監管機構都知道這一點，而且顯然他們在談論預測。但我想知道，您能否幫助我們了解一下，在2026年初新一屆會議即將召開之際，立法者是否意識到了這一點，以及這對競爭格局的影響？

I think they are absolutely aware of it. And this is one of the things that we noted in our letter. I think as states see this continue to grow, it's going to put increased pressure on policymakers to strongly consider whether they should follow the path of the other half or so of the country and just pass sports betting legislation.

我認為他們對此非常清楚。這是我們信中提到的其中一點。我認為，隨著各州看到這種情況持續增長，這將給政策制定者帶來更大的壓力，促使他們認真考慮是否應該效仿全國其他一半左右的州，通過體育博彩立法。

I also think it's going to help really make policymakers think twice about tax increases because they understand that there is another thing out there that they have to compete with and that operators ultimately, if the taxes get too high, might decide to just pivot. So I think that it's -- this is one of the many reasons I think it's a huge positive for us.

我也認為這將真正有助於讓政策制定者三思而後行，重新考慮增稅問題，因為他們明白現在有另一個競爭因素，如果稅收過高，運營商最終可能會決定轉型。所以我認為這——這是我認為這對我們來說是一個巨大的利好因素的眾多原因之一。

I think it's an opportunity for us to obviously go into the industry and compete and win. But I also think it's a powerful lever in terms of what policymakers are going to be thinking and legislators are very aware of it, like anything. It's still early, and so they're still developing their views on it. But I think in the same way, regulators are concerned about it, so are policymakers, legislators as well.

我認為這顯然是我們進入這個行業並參與競爭、贏得勝利的機會。但我認為，這對政策制定者的想法來說也是一個強大的槓桿，立法者對此也非常清楚，就像其他任何事情一樣。現在還為時過早，所以他們仍在形成自己的看法。但我認為，監管機構、政策制定者和立法者也同樣對此感到擔憂。

Ben Chaiken, Mizuho.

本·柴肯，瑞穗。

On predictions, you have 50% of the country that are non-OSB states. As you think about the -- this is a two-parter -- as you think about the launch, how do you think about CAC maybe in absolute dollars in the context or compared to an OSB launch? And then maybe you could compare and contrast versus state launches in terms of targeting customers and how you think about determining the appropriate aperture, if that makes sense?

根據預測，全國有 50% 的州不是 OSB 州。當你思考——這是一個分成兩部分的問題——當你思考產品發佈時，你會如何看待 CAC（客戶獲取成本）？或許可以用絕對美元來衡量，並與 OSB 產品發布進行比較？然後，或許你可以將各州的上市計畫與目標客戶群進行比較和對比，並探討你如何確定合適的上市範圍，這樣做有意義嗎？

So I mean, I think really, it's the same type of approach that we would take with OSB simply with much shorter payback periods. And also, we don't have data yet to know exactly what those payback periods would even need to be -- or what those numbers would even need to be to hit that payback period. So we're going to be even more conservative with that in mind.

所以我的意思是，我認為這實際上和我們採用 OSB 的方法是一樣的，只是投資回收期要短得多。而且，我們目前還沒有數據來確切地知道這些投資回收期需要多久，或者要達到該投資回收期需要達到多少數字。所以考慮到這一點，我們會更加保守。

We do have some external data that we can gather from looking at how some of the others in the prediction space have been generating volume and doing some estimations of what we think we can get. So we're not completely coming in blind.

我們可以透過觀察預測領域中的其他人是如何產生交易量的，並對我們認為自己能夠獲得的交易量進行一些估計，來收集一些外部資料。所以我們並非完全一無所知。

We have a model. But like anything, you want your own real data to be able to validate that model before you really lean in. So I think we're going to test enough that we have data and understand if you test too slowly, then it takes forever to get there. But we're also going to be measured and really conservative in how we do it. As far as an absolute number, I can't tell you that at the moment because we're still trying to figure it out, but also, I don't think we would share it anyway to be honest.

我們有一個模型。但就像任何事情一樣，在真正投入之前，你需要用自己的真實數據來驗證模型。所以我認為我們會進行足夠的測試，以便獲得數據並了解，如果測試速度太慢，那麼就需要很長時間才能達到目標。但我們也會採取謹慎保守的做法。至於確切的數字，我現在還不能告訴你，因為我們還在努力弄清楚，而且說實話，我覺得我們無論如何也不會透露。

But we did mention that we're going to be looking for shorter payback periods. So in the past, we've said we look at three-year payback periods for OSB and iGaming. So it's going to be something materially less than that.

但我們確實提到過，我們會尋求更短的投資回收期。所以過去我們說過，對於 OSB 和 iGaming，我們會考慮三年的投資回收期。所以實際數量會比這少一些。

Jason Tilchen, Canaccord Genuity.

Jason Tilchen，Canaccord Genuity。

Wondering if you could share a little bit more on the upcoming rollout of the Spanish language app, how incremental of an opportunity do you see that as a customer acquisition and engagement driver going forward?

能否請您詳細介紹即將推出的西班牙語應用程式？您認為它在未來能為客戶獲取和互動帶來多大的提升空間？

Yes, I'm excited about it. That's something we've been actually working on for a little while. What sparked it was really two things. Well, first, the thing that sparked it was saying, look, we have the World Cup coming up in 2026. How big an audience do we think there's going to be for that, that is Spanish language first and what kind of opportunity could that create?

是的，我很興奮。這件事我們已經研究了一段時間了。引發這件事的真正原因是兩件事。首先，引發這件事的原因是，有人說，看，2026 年世界盃就要來了。我們認為以西班牙語為主的節目會有多大的受眾？這又能創造什麼樣的機會？

And then we -- that led us to do further research on just, hey, not just for World Cup, what are we thinking in terms of people betting on NFL, NBA, other sports. We've also done some testing into Spanish language media, obviously, directing into the English language product, but more just to see is there incremental customer acquisition opportunity there.

然後，這促使我們進一步研究，不僅僅是世界杯，我們還在思考人們對 NFL、NBA 和其他體育賽事的投注情況。我們也對西班牙語媒體進行了一些測試，顯然是為了推廣英語產品，但更多是為了看看是否有增加客戶獲取的機會。

So between all those data points, we had a pretty good idea of how -- what kind of opportunity this could represent as well as obviously other data on just how many people in the US are Hispanic first -- Spanish-speaking first and how many live in different states and really understanding based on the states we're operating and what to expect. So that was sort of the thinking behind it.

因此，綜合所有這些數據點，我們對這可能代表什麼樣的機會有了相當清晰的認識，當然還有其他數據，例如美國有多少人是西班牙裔（以西班牙語為主要語言），有多少人居住在不同的州，以及根據我們運營的州，我們真正了解了情況以及可以期待什麼。這就是背後的大致思路。

In terms of the opportunity, I think the big question is how many people who are Spanish-speaking are going to -- I'm sure some of them are already betting, but how many of them are going to make their choice of where they go based on the experience in Spanish language. And I have to imagine that there's a lot of people who would prefer Spanish language app, maybe even some that just won't even use an English language app, but even amongst those that would, that would certainly prefer a Spanish language app.

就機會而言，我認為最大的問題是會有多少講西班牙語的人——我相信他們中的一些人已經在下注了，但有多少人會根據西班牙語體驗來選擇去哪裡？我猜想肯定有很多人會更喜歡西班牙語應用程序，甚至有些人根本不會使用英語應用程序，但即使在那些會使用英語應用程式的人當中，也肯定會更喜歡西班牙語應用程式。

And so if we can create the best experience there, we can get there first and early, especially with a big event like World Cup coming up, it gives us an opportunity to really build outsized share in that demographic. And I'm really excited about it. It's obviously a very fast-growing demographic in the United States as well and one where some of the biggest states where those Spanish-speaking folks live haven't even come online yet, like Texas and California.

因此，如果我們能夠創造最好的體驗，我們就能搶佔先機，尤其是在世界盃這樣的大型賽事即將到來之際，這將給我們一個真正在該人群中建立巨大市場份額的機會。我對此感到非常興奮。顯然，西班牙語人口在美國也是一個成長非常迅速的群體，而一些西班牙語人口聚居的大州，例如德克薩斯州和加利福尼亞州，甚至還沒有連接到網路。

So much more incremental opportunity in the future as well.

未來還有更多漸進式的發展機會。

Ian Moore, Bernstein.

伊恩·摩爾，伯恩斯坦。

The 800 to 1,000 basis point surge you guys had in NFL and NBA parlay mix is a really massive number. The share gains you called out are great to hear, too. You guys credited like product innovation and promo strategy in the release, but maybe you could help us with like attribution, more product, more promo? And does that inform the strategy on the prediction markets launch at all, like balancing the front end with Railbird and the back end?

你們在 NFL 和 NBA 串關投注中實現了 800 到 1000 個基點的漲幅，這確實是一個非常大的數字。您提到的股價上漲也令人振奮。你們在發表會上讚揚了產品創新和推廣策略，但或許你們可以幫我們改進歸因分析、產品推廣和宣傳策略？這是否會對預測市場推出的策略產生影響，例如平衡前端（Railbird）和後端？

I think it was a combination of everything. I mean, our product has never been better, features like stacks and other sorts of things that help you more easily build and figure out what kind of parlays you want are, I think, at the best stage they've ever been at. I think our Ghost Leg promotion, in particular, was really effective at driving parlay mix. It's -- I mean, the promotion is designed around parlays. So I think it really helped there, too.

我認為這是各種因素共同作用的結果。我的意思是，我們的產品從未如此出色，像堆疊功能和其他一些可以幫助您更輕鬆地構建和確定您想要的串關投注類型的功能，我認為，都處於有史以來最好的階段。我認為我們的「幽靈腿」促銷活動尤其有效地推動了串關投注組合。我的意思是，這項促銷活動是圍繞著串關投注設計的。所以我覺得它在那方面也很有幫助。

So I mean, it was a combination of multiple things, but it's been such a focus area for us. It's just really great to see that it's actually accelerating. I think each season that goes by, can it be even better next year? And so far, it has. So this is why we're so bullish on the bet mix side and why we think there's so much long-term margin headroom because we see this acceleration.

所以我的意思是，這是多種因素共同作用的結果，但這一直是我們重點關注的領域。看到它確實在加速發展，真是太好了。我認為每個賽季過去後，下個賽季會不會更好呢？目前來看，情況確實如此。所以，這就是為什麼我們如此看好投注組合，以及為什麼我們認為長期利潤空間如此之大，因為我們看到了這種加速成長的趨勢。

It doesn't seem like it's slowing down. And then you look at some more mature markets overseas where they have 60-plus percent of handle coming from parlays. And so between that and live betting, we think those are the 2 areas that have the most upside and the most growth in the U.S. in the coming years.

似乎並沒有放緩的跡象。然後你看看海外一些更成熟的市場，那裡超過 60% 的投注額來自串關投注。因此，我們認為，在博彩和現場投注這兩個領域中，未來幾年在美國最具發展潛力和成長空間的就是它們。

This does conclude the question-and-answer session of today's program. I'd like to hand the program back to Jason for any further remarks.

今天的問答環節到此結束。我想把發言權交還給傑森，讓他再補充一些內容。

Well, thank you all for joining us on today's call. We are really excited and feel we're really well positioned for continued success in the future. Thank you all for your continued support, and we look forward to seeing you next quarter.

感謝各位參加今天的電話會議。我們感到非常興奮，並認為我們已經做好充分準備，在未來繼續取得成功。感謝大家一直以來的支持，我們期待下季再見大家。

Thank you, ladies and gentlemen, for your participation in today's conference. This does conclude the program. You may now disconnect. Good day.

感謝各位女士、先生參加今天的會議。節目到此結束。您現在可以斷開連線了。再會。