Draftkings Inc (DKNG) 2022 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good day, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Fourth Quarter 2022 DraftKings Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Stanton Dodge, Chief Legal Officer. Please go ahead.

美好的一天，謝謝你的支持。歡迎參加 2022 年第四季度 DraftKings 收益電話會議。 （操作員說明）請注意，今天的會議正在錄製中。我現在想將會議轉交給首席法律官 Stanton Dodge。請繼續。

Good morning, everyone, and thanks for joining us today. Certain statements we make during this call may constitute forward-looking statements that are subject to risks, uncertainties and other factors, as discussed further in SEC filings, that could cause our actual results to differ materially from our historical results or from our forecast. We assume no responsibility to update forward-looking statements, other than as required by law.

大家早上好，感謝今天加入我們。我們在本次電話會議中發表的某些聲明可能構成前瞻性聲明，這些聲明受風險、不確定性和其他因素的影響，正如美國證券交易委員會提交的文件中進一步討論的那樣，這可能導致我們的實際結果與我們的歷史結果或我們的預測存在重大差異。除法律要求外，我們不承擔更新前瞻性陳述的責任。

During this call, management will also discuss certain non-GAAP financial measures that we believe may be useful in evaluating DraftKings' operating performance. These measures should not be considered in isolation or as a substitute for DraftKings' financial results prepared in accordance with GAAP. Reconciliations of these non-GAAP measures to the most directly comparable GAAP measures are available in our earnings presentation, which can be found on our website and in our filings with the SEC.

在此電話會議中，管理層還將討論某些我們認為可能有助於評估 DraftKings 經營業績的非 GAAP 財務指標。不應孤立地考慮這些措施或替代 DraftKings 根據公認會計原則編制的財務結果。這些非 GAAP 措施與最直接可比的 GAAP 措施的對賬可在我們的收益報告中找到，可以在我們的網站和我們提交給美國證券交易委員會的文件中找到。

Hosting the call today, we have Jason Robins, Co-Founder and Chief Executive Officer of DraftKings, who will share some opening remarks and an update on our business; and Jason Park, Chief Financial Officer of DraftKings, who will provide a review of our financials. We will then open the line to questions.

今天主持電話會議的是 DraftKings 的聯合創始人兼首席執行官 Jason Robins，他將分享一些開場白和我們業務的最新情況； DraftKings 的首席財務官 Jason Park 將對我們的財務狀況進行審查。然後我們將打開問題熱線。

I will now turn the call over to Jason Robins.

我現在將把電話轉給 Jason Robins。

Good morning, and thank you all for joining. First off, I am very excited about 2023. We are more focused than ever on expense management. Since our previous earnings call in November, we have made surgical decisions backed by strong analysis about our expenses and have actioned items that totaled an expected $100 million of adjusted EBITDA relative to our prior guide.

早上好，感謝大家的加入。首先，我對 2023 年感到非常興奮。我們比以往任何時候都更加關注費用管理。自我們上次 11 月的財報電話會議以來，我們根據對支出的強有力分析做出了手術決定，並採取了相對於我們之前的指南預計總額為 1 億美元的調整後 EBITDA 的行動項目。

Including the impact of the increase in our 2023 revenue guidance, we have improved our adjusted EBITDA guide from a range of negative $475 million to negative $575 million to a range of negative $350 million to negative $450 million, and notably expect to generate more than $100 million of adjusted EBITDA in the fourth quarter of [2023]

包括我們 2023 年收入指引增加的影響，我們已將調整後的 EBITDA 指引從負 4.75 億美元到負 5.75 億美元提高到負 3.5 億美元到負 4.5 億美元，特別是預計產生超過 100 美元[2023] 第四季度調整後的 EBITDA 百萬

As you can see, we are in a great spot and are seeing an acceleration in our contribution profit and adjusted EBITDA. And we will continue to explore ways to drive efficiencies, both in our compensation and noncompensation expense categories. To be clear, the top line is performing very well, and we have strong momentum heading into 2023. We grew revenue 81% year-over-year in the fourth quarter and had an adjusted gross margin rate of 49%. Jason Park will speak more about what drove our strong fourth quarter results.

正如您所看到的，我們處於一個很好的位置，我們的貢獻利潤和調整後的 EBITDA 正在加速增長。我們將繼續探索提高薪酬和非薪酬支出類別效率的方法。需要明確的是，收入表現非常好，進入 2023 年的勢頭強勁。第四季度我們的收入同比增長 81%，調整後的毛利率為 49%。 Jason Park 將更多地談論是什麼推動了我們強勁的第四季度業績。

Turning to our product offerings. DraftKings' mobile sportsbook was the #1 most downloaded sportsbook app in the United States since Super Bowl Sunday. For sportsbook, one of our key product highlights was the launch of our own in-house live same-game parlay product, making us the first operator to deliver this capacity end to end for the NBA. This continues our focus on enhancing our parlay offering, which drives increased hold rate.

轉向我們的產品。 DraftKings 的移動體育博彩是自超級碗週日以來美國下載次數最多的體育博彩應用程序中排名第一的。對於體育博彩，我們的主要產品亮點之一是推出了我們自己的內部直播同場過關遊戲產品，這使我們成為第一家為 NBA 提供這種端到端容量的運營商。這繼續我們專注於增強我們的 parlay 產品，這推動了持有率的提高。

And for iGaming, we launched DraftKings Jackpot, a unique type of progressive jackpot that is shared across more than 100 [swaps in paid booking]. We also received approval for our first live casino game developed entirely in-house, which we expect to launch in the coming months in New Jersey.

對於 iGaming，我們推出了 DraftKings Jackpot，這是一種獨特類型的累積獎金，可在 100 多個 [付費預訂的交換] 中共享。我們還獲得了完全內部開發的第一款真人娛樂場遊戲的批准，我們預計將在未來幾個月內在新澤西州推出該遊戲。

I am proud of the team and culture we have in place. In particular, I am proud of our team for their relentless focus on efficiency and expense management over the past 12 months. While our work here is not done, we feel great about our trajectory and the ability the team has shown in driving strong revenue growth, while also managing our expenses better than ever before.

我為我們現有的團隊和文化感到自豪。我尤其為我們的團隊感到自豪，因為他們在過去 12 個月中不懈地關注效率和費用管理。雖然我們在這裡的工作還沒有完成，但我們對我們的發展軌跡和團隊在推動強勁收入增長方面表現出的能力感到非常滿意，同時也比以往任何時候都更好地管理我們的開支。

I also noted that it is critical for top management to not take their eye off the ball in this area. And I am personally very focused on ensuring that goals, compensation and accountability are all aligned toward this very important objective.

我還注意到，對於高層管理人員來說，不要將他們的注意力從這個領域移開是至關重要的。我個人非常注重確保目標、薪酬和問責制都與這個非常重要的目標保持一致。

With that, I will turn it over to Jason Park.

有了這個，我會把它交給 Jason Park。

Thank you, Jason. Yes, let me hit on some of the highlights, including our Q4 performance, our new and improved 2023 guidance and some information on our underlying state vintages. Please note that all income statement measures, except for revenue, are on a non-GAAP adjusted EBITDA basis.

謝謝你，傑森。是的，讓我談談一些亮點，包括我們第四季度的表現、我們新的和改進的 2023 年指南以及有關我們基本州年份的一些信息。請注意，除收入外，所有損益表指標均基於非公認會計原則調整後的 EBITDA。

As Jason mentioned, we have great momentum coming out of Q4. In Q4, we posted $855 million of revenue, which represents 81% growth versus Q4 2021. This brought our full year revenue growth to 73%. Adjusted EBITDA was positive in October and was positive for the entire quarter after adjusting for the roughly $75 million investment we made in our recent launches in Maryland and Ohio. Our revenue was better than our prior guidance, primarily because of structural improvement in our sportsbook hold and fundamentally better customer trends than we expected. Customers are engaging more with our products and are less reliant on promotions. We also managed out approximately $25 million of expenses in Q4.

正如 Jason 所提到的，我們在第四季度取得了巨大的發展勢頭。在第四季度，我們公佈了 8.55 億美元的收入，比 2021 年第四季度增長了 81%。這使我們的全年收入增長達到 73%。調整後的 EBITDA 在 10 月份為正，並且在調整了我們最近在馬里蘭州和俄亥俄州推出的大約 7500 萬美元的投資後，整個季度都是正的。我們的收入好於我們之前的指導，主要是因為我們體育博彩持有的結構性改進以及從根本上比我們預期更好的客戶趨勢。客戶更多地使用我們的產品，對促銷的依賴程度降低。我們還在第四季度管理了大約 2500 萬美元的費用。

2023 is off to a great start. This will be a year of continued revenue growth and expense management. Strong customer trends, including customer retention, handle per player, hold rate and better promotion reinvestment, are enabling us to increase the midpoint of our revenue guidance from $2.9 billion to $2.95 billion. And our expense management programs have already identified $100 million of cost savings for 2023, roughly $50 million from scale marketing efficiencies and another $50 million from people-related costs. These 2 factors, along with our higher revenue outlook, allow us to confidently increase our adjusted EBITDA guidance range from negative $475 million to negative $575 million to negative $350 million to negative $450 million.

2023 年是一個良好的開端。今年將是收入持續增長和費用管理持續增長的一年。強大的客戶趨勢，包括客戶保留率、每位玩家的處理量、持有率和更好的促銷再投資，使我們能夠將收入指引的中點從 29 億美元增加到 29.5 億美元。我們的費用管理計劃已經確定 2023 年可節省 1 億美元的成本，其中約 5000 萬美元來自規模營銷效率，另外 5000 萬美元來自與人員相關的成本。這兩個因素，加上我們更高的收入前景，使我們能夠自信地將調整後的 EBITDA 指導範圍從負 4.75 億美元增加到負 5.75 億美元，再到負 3.5 億美元到負 4.5 億美元。

I also wanted to spend a bit of time on foundational state economics. At any given point in time, our company results are a ref -- are a reflection of a combination of mature states, newer states and brand new states. Our states are performing very well, and we are seeing faster paths to positive contribution profit than we expected.

我還想花一點時間在基礎狀態經濟學上。在任何給定的時間點，我們公司的結果都是一個參考——反映了成熟狀態、較新狀態和全新狀態的組合。我們的州表現非常好，我們看到實現正貢獻利潤的途徑比我們預期的要快。

For example, when we look at our 2018 to 2019 vintages states, which represents roughly 10% of the U.S. population, we are seeing great results. In 2022, those states grew net revenue by 50% versus 2021. This continued growth is due to several factors. We are seeing great customer retention, handle for retained player is growing, promotional reinvestment is coming down and hold percentage is going up. And because much of the net revenue growth is coming from less promotions and higher hold, our adjusted gross margin rate in that vintage was up more than 400 basis points in 2022 versus 2021. Finally, our absolute marketing dollars in those states decreased by more than 15%.

例如，當我們查看約占美國人口 10% 的 2018 年至 2019 年年份的州時，我們看到了很好的結果。到 2022 年，這些州的淨收入比 2021 年增長了 50%。這種持續增長有幾個因素。我們看到客戶保留率很高，留存玩家的處理量正在增長，促銷再投資正在下降，持有百分比正在上升。而且由於大部分淨收入增長來自較少的促銷和較高的持有率，我們在那個年份調整後的毛利率在 2022 年比 2021 年上升了 400 個基點以上。最後，我們在這些州的絕對營銷費用減少了超過15%。

These are important statistics and they are the foundational drivers of continued contribution profit expansion and acceleration across our states. This increase in total contribution profit, combined with much slower growth in fixed costs, results in an acceleration of our adjusted EBITDA profitability and clear progress towards achieving our long-term adjusted EBITDA goals.

這些是重要的統計數據，它們是我們各州持續貢獻利潤擴張和加速的基本驅動力。總貢獻利潤的增加，加上固定成本增長放緩，導致我們調整後的 EBITDA 盈利能力加速，並在實現我們長期調整後的 EBITDA 目標方面取得明顯進展。

That concludes our prepared remarks, and we will now open the line for questions.

我們準備好的發言到此結束，現在我們將打開提問熱線。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from Shaun Kelley with Bank of America.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自美國銀行的 Shaun Kelley。

Jason or Jason, I was wondering if we could just drill down a little bit on some of what you're seeing on the kind of structural hold improvement. That seems to be a really big story and one that you called out, yes, mix shift. Can you just give us a sense about 2 things? What's the underlying assumption for kind of 2023 as you think about what you saw results wise in the fourth quarter? And then secondarily, what's some of the kind of product road map? How do you think you can kind of continue to migrate customers into those types of products in the medium and long term?

Jason 或 Jason，我想知道我們是否可以深入了解您在結構保持改進方面看到的一些內容。這似乎是一個非常大的故事，你稱之為，是的，混合轉變。你能告訴我們兩件事嗎？當您考慮第四季度的明智結果時，2023 年的基本假設是什麼？其次，產品路線圖是什麼？從中長期來看，您認為如何才能繼續將客戶遷移到這些類型的產品中？

Great question. So really, I think it made a ton of progress in this area, which I think has been enabled by having migrated towards the beginning of last NFL -- excuse me, the previous NFL season to our own platform, and really, I think NFL 2022, with the culmination of a year's worth of work, which has continued through. We just launched live SGP for NBA, which I think was the first op -- we were the first operator to do so, and that was an entirely in-house built and traded product. So really, I think we should expect to continue to see more and more effort towards driving a better parlay product offering, and I think that will continue to drive more mix shift.

很好的問題。所以真的，我認為它在這個領域取得了很大的進步，我認為這是通過遷移到上一個 NFL 的開始而實現的 - 對不起，上一個 NFL 賽季到我們自己的平台，真的，我認為 NFL 2022 年，一年的工作達到頂峰，一直持續到現在。我們剛剛為 NBA 推出了實時 SGP，我認為這是第一個運營商——我們是第一個這樣做的運營商，那是一個完全內部構建和交易的產品。所以真的，我認為我們應該繼續看到越來越多的努力來推動更好的 parlay 產品供應，我認為這將繼續推動更多的混合轉變。

Also, we are making other changes. Certainly, mix shift is the largest driver of what we're referring to as structural hold increase. But we are also making other adjustments to our models, rolling out new and improved models, improving our data environment and doing a lot of other things that are helping us improve our trading performance. So I do think there's some additional upside. We continue to be able to execute against those things on the product road map.

此外，我們正在進行其他更改。當然，混合轉變是我們所說的結構性持有增加的最大驅動力。但我們也在對我們的模型進行其他調整，推出新的和改進的模型，改善我們的數據環境，並做很多其他事情來幫助我們提高交易績效。所以我確實認為還有一些額外的好處。我們繼續能夠執行產品路線圖上的那些事情。

Yes. And I would add, Shaun, in terms of your question for guidance. As we saw the empirical structural hold flow-through in Q3, late Q3 and Q4, we've embedded that into our 2023 revenue guidance, which is a big part of the increase in our revenue guidance that we provided today.

是的。肖恩，我想補充一下你的指導問題。正如我們在第三季度、第三季度末和第四季度看到的實證結構性持有流動一樣，我們已將其嵌入到我們的 2023 年收入指導中，這是我們今天提供的收入指導增加的很大一部分。

One moment for our next question. That question comes from David Katz with Jefferies.

稍等一下我們的下一個問題。這個問題來自 Jefferies 的 David Katz。

And congrats on the quarter. So with respect to this kind of updated operating platform or the updates that you've made, if hypothetically, we were to see -- and I know we've talked so much about sports betting, if we were to see iGaming hypothetically go live in New York, can you shed a little light on how that might impact what the guide is, both on the loss and the cash flow side?

並祝賀本季度。因此，關於這種更新的操作平台或您所做的更新，如果假設的話，我們將會看到 - 我知道我們已經談論了很多關於體育博彩，如果我們假設我們看到 iGaming 上線在紐約，您能否闡明這可能會如何影響指南的內容，包括損失和現金流量方面？

Absolutely. So I think, obviously, there's a lot of moving parts, how big is the market, what's the structure around the tax rate, promotional deductions, those sorts of things. I think in general, what we've said in the past is we assume roughly 7% to 8% of the U.S. population -- or it was 7% to 9% are new sports betting markets each year, and 3% to 4% for iGaming. So New York, obviously, would be on the upper end of that. But overall, those assumptions are baked into our 2024 guidance. I don't think even if New York did pass the bill this year, I think it's unlikely that it will go live this year. Remember, they passed the bill the year before they went live. It was early the following year, but it took until the following year to go live for mobile sports betting.

絕對地。所以我認為，很明顯，有很多變動因素，市場有多大，稅率結構是什麼，促銷扣除等等。我認為總的來說，我們過去所說的是我們假設大約 7% 到 8% 的美國人口——或者說每年有 7% 到 9% 是新的體育博彩市場，3% 到 4%對於在線博彩。所以很明顯，紐約將處於最高端。但總的來說，這些假設已納入我們的 2024 年指南。我認為即使紐約今年確實通過了該法案，我認為它不太可能在今年實施。請記住，他們在上線前一年通過了該法案。次年年初，但直到次年才上線移動體育博彩。

So some states have been faster, but I think most have generally been the following calendar year. So I think we're looking at 2024, and as I mentioned, we've built in some assumption around that, but this would be a bigger iGaming market than we had assumed.

所以有些州速度更快，但我認為大多數州通常是下一個日曆年。所以我認為我們正在關注 2024 年，正如我提到的，我們已經對此做出了一些假設，但這將是一個比我們假設的更大的 iGaming 市場。

And just to follow that up, if I may. Is it a fair assumption that the negative impact, both to earnings and cash flow from an iGaming state of size, would be less than it would be from a sports betting? Or is that not a correct assumption?

如果可以的話，只是跟進一下。 iGaming 規模對收益和現金流的負面影響小於體育博彩的負面影響是否合理？或者這不是一個正確的假設？

No, I think that is correct, particularly if it's a state that already has sports betting where we've already had a lot of customer acquisition investment like New York. So we've acquired hundreds and hundreds of thousands of players in New York already. I think the cross-sell opportunity there would be enormous. We know that some of these players are going to Connecticut, to New Jersey, to Pennsylvania to do iGaming now. So I do think there is some incremental customer acquisition spend, but it's not the same as a fresh market where we haven't had hundreds of thousands of customers that we've acquired already. So it's an accurate assessment, I think.

不，我認為這是正確的，特別是如果它是一個已經有體育博彩的州，我們已經有很多像紐約這樣的客戶獲取投資。所以我們已經在紐約獲得了成百上千的玩家。我認為那裡的交叉銷售機會將是巨大的。我們知道其中一些玩家現在要去康涅狄格州、新澤西州和賓夕法尼亞州進行在線博彩。所以我確實認為有一些增量的客戶獲取支出，但這與我們還沒有獲得數十萬客戶的新市場不同。所以我認為這是一個準確的評估。

We have a question from Jason Bazinet with Citi.

花旗的 Jason Bazinet 向我們提出了一個問題。

I just have a high-level question. You guys, obviously, are making a lot of progress improving the operations, and every metric seems to be moving in the right direction. At the highest level, when you think about how these improvements compare to some of the long-term targets that you've laid out at prior Investor Days, is the implication that the goals are the same, but you'll just maybe get there faster? Or do you -- if things keep going as well, is there scope for some of those to move up?

我只是有一個高級問題。顯然，你們在改進運營方面取得了很大進展，而且每個指標似乎都在朝著正確的方向發展。在最高層面上，當您考慮這些改進與您在之前的投資者日制定的一些長期目標相比如何時，是否意味著目標是相同的，但您可能會實現目標快點？或者你 - 如果事情繼續下去，其中一些是否有提升的空間？

That's a great question. we will, later this year, be providing an updated long-term outlook at an Investor Day. So stay tuned for that. But speaking to it conceptually, I do think there's some upside there. We certainly have some upside on the hold rate front. I think promotions will probably end up somewhere in line with where we think they'll be long term.

這是一個很好的問題。今年晚些時候，我們將在投資者日提供最新的長期展望。所以請繼續關注。但從概念上講，我確實認為那裡有一些好處。我們在持有率方面當然有一些上行空間。我認為促銷活動可能會在我們認為長期的某個地方結束。

And then on the cost side, I think there's always effort that needs to be going. That's something, I think, that really has resonated with the team is, yes, obviously, we're all cognizant of the market environment we're in. But we also understand that to build the most profitable long-term company, we need to be as efficient as we possibly can. And that's a message that everyone on leadership has really taken to.

然後在成本方面，我認為總是需要付出努力。我認為，這確實引起了團隊的共鳴，是的，很明顯，我們都認識到我們所處的市場環境。但我們也明白，要建立最賺錢的長期公司，我們需要盡可能高效。這是每個領導層都真正接受的信息。

The Board conducted a thorough review of management incentives towards the end of 2021 and starting in '22, it's continued to '23, completely realigned management incentives. So there was an equivalent focus on EBITDA and profitability to what we previously had, had on revenue. So I think that when we look at the long term, and like I said, we'll provide more specific updates later this year, I do think there's some upside if we can continue to find the efficiencies that we've been finding over the past 12 months.

董事會在 2021 年底對管理層激勵措施進行了徹底審查，並從 22 年開始一直持續到 23 年，完全重新調整了管理層激勵措施。因此，我們對 EBITDA 和盈利能力的關注與我們之前對收入的關注相同。所以我認為，當我們著眼於長期時，就像我說的，我們將在今年晚些時候提供更具體的更新，我確實認為如果我們能夠繼續找到我們一直在尋找的效率，就會有一些好處過去 12 個月。

And our next question comes from Carlo Santarelli with Deutsche Bank.

我們的下一個問題來自德意志銀行的 Carlo Santarelli。

Jason, whoever wants to take this one, as you guys think about kind of the structural hold improvements that you're making and you think about kind of the new parlay product, relative to retention and acknowledging, it's early with a lot of this stuff. But you obviously had some growth over the course of 2022 with your addressable TAM, with new states that have come online. I believe your monthly unique payers was up high 20s this year. I'm not sure if that is in line with kind of the addressable TAM that you brought up, but it seems similar, at least. As you think about like kind of that retention effort, as holds are rising, how could you kind of comment around the balance between how to retain and kind of how to improve efficiency on a per customer basis?

傑森，無論誰想接受這個，你們都在考慮你們正在做的結構性改進，你們在考慮新的 parlay 產品，相對於保留和承認，很多這樣的東西還為時過早.但顯然，在 2022 年期間，您的可尋址 TAM 有了一些增長，新的州已經上線。我相信今年您的每月獨立付款人高達 20 多歲。我不確定這是否符合您提出的可尋址 TAM 類型，但至少看起來很相似。當你考慮那種保留努力時，隨著持有量的增加，你如何圍繞如何保留和如何提高每個客戶的效率之間的平衡發表評論？

I think that's an extremely important question. And really, in the end, it's all about the customer. We start there. What's nice about the parlay product is customers love it. It's something that I think helps with retention of the product offering keeps getting stronger.

我認為這是一個極其重要的問題。實際上，最終，一切都與客戶有關。我們從那裡開始。 parlay 產品的優點在於客戶喜歡它。我認為這是有助於保留產品供應的東西變得越來越強大。

So we don't view it as a trade-off at all. We look at it and start with the customer, find the products that the customers want and then ideally construct those products in a way that is both really exciting and benefits the customer and also create attractive economics for the company. And I think parlay is a great example of that.

所以我們根本不認為這是一種權衡。我們著眼於客戶，從客戶著手，找到客戶想要的產品，然後以一種既真正令人興奮又能使客戶受益並為公司創造有吸引力的經濟效益的方式理想地構建這些產品。我認為 parlay 就是一個很好的例子。

We've had DFS for years. And while certainly, DFS is a skill game, while certainly people do win, it's not as common. But when they win, they have an opportunity in these big tournaments to win very large prices. And I think the parlay product functions the same way. If somebody does a very large parlay with lots of legs, they have an opportunity to turn a very small bet into a large payday. And I think that's really the value prop that's unique about the parlay product relative to the singles bets.

我們已經有 DFS 多年了。當然，DFS 是一種技巧遊戲，雖然人們確實會贏，但並不常見。但是當他們獲勝時，他們就有機會在這些大型錦標賽中贏得非常高的獎金。我認為 parlay 產品的功能相同。如果有人用很多條腿進行非常大的過關，他們就有機會把一個非常小的賭注變成一個大的發薪日。我認為這確實是 parlay 產品相對於單註的獨特價值。

Great. And then if I could, just one follow-up. In terms of adjusted sales and marketing, I think the external marketing in '22 was a little over $800 million, you guys disclosed. The total was a little over $1.1 billion. Should we expect, as soon as '23, that, that line starts to -- that, that expense starts to come down a little bit this year? Or is that relatively flat this year and maybe you leverage a little bit of the revenue growth? And then maybe in subsequent years is where we start to see that sales and marketing kind of chip away and go lower?

偉大的。然後，如果可以的話，只跟進一次。你們透露，就調整後的銷售和營銷而言，我認為 22 年的外部營銷略高於 8 億美元。總額略高於 11 億美元。我們是否應該期望，從 23 年開始，這條線就開始——今年的費用開始下降一點？或者今年相對持平，也許你可以利用一點收入增長？然後也許在隨後的幾年裡我們開始看到銷售和營銷的籌碼減少並走低？

I think that's right. I think we'll be relatively flat this year. I think that we're -- obviously, some of this will depend on the cadence of state launches, but based on sort of a baseline expectation, I think will be relatively flat this year. And as you noted, I think as more and more states mature, as the market overall matures, you'll start to see it tail down a little bit. But this year, I think we're expecting to be basically flat year-over-year.

我認為這是對的。我認為我們今年會相對平穩。我認為我們 - 顯然，其中一些將取決於各州發布的節奏，但基於某種基線預期，我認為今年將相對持平。正如你所指出的，我認為隨著越來越多的州成熟，隨著市場整體的成熟，你會開始看到它有點下降。但今年，我認為我們預計同比基本持平。

Our next question comes from Ed Young with Morgan Stanley.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的 Ed Young。

And first of all, just to say thank you for some of the extra disclosure in the presentation. It's really very useful and appreciated. I want to ask about the statement you've reiterated really, which is around producing your first adjusted EBITDA positive quarter in the fourth quarter of this year and then how that set -- the '24. Given as you mentioned that you were there this Q4, except for the new state investment, can you just help us sort of think about that statement? Is that due to the cadence of the cost savings that you mentioned? Is that due to conservatism around the new state launches and not having perfect line of sight to that? Or is there anything else? Is there a reason particularly why that couldn't come earlier, you just maybe just want to commit yourself to that?

首先，感謝您在演示文稿中的一些額外披露。這真的非常有用和讚賞。我想問一下你真的重申過的聲明，這是關於在今年第四季度產生你的第一個調整後的 EBITDA 正季度，然後是如何設定 - '24。鑑於你提到你在這個第四季度在那裡，除了新的國家投資，你能幫我們考慮一下這個聲明嗎？這是由於您提到的成本節約的節奏嗎？這是由於圍繞新州發射的保守主義並且對此沒有完美的視線嗎？或者還有別的嗎？有沒有什麼特別的原因為什麼不能早點來，你可能只是想承諾一下？

Yes. I think -- so it's a great question, Ed. Certainly, there's seasonality of the business, and there are quarters where there's deeper marketing investment like Q1 and Q3. I think that, for us right now, especially given Ohio, Maryland or brand-new Massachusetts, we expect to launch, hopefully, sometime in March, I do think that, that's really the reason behind us staying with the Q4 message. I think because of those launches, we expect an even better Q4. And what we're seeing is that those states so far, Maryland and Ohio, at least are ramping faster, even in Arizona. Arizona was the fastest-ramping state we had, and some of our more recent states like Maryland and Ohio have really even been faster. So I think the good news is that, that's going to contribute more contribution profit sooner. I just don't know if Q2 is too soon to expect that.

是的。我想——這是一個很好的問題，Ed。當然，業務有季節性，而且有些季度會有更深層次的營銷投資，比如第一季度和第三季度。我認為，對於我們現在，特別是考慮到俄亥俄州、馬里蘭州或全新的馬薩諸塞州，我們希望在 3 月的某個時候推出，我確實認為，這就是我們堅持第四季度信息的真正原因。我認為由於這些發布，我們預計第四季度會更好。我們所看到的是，到目前為止，馬里蘭州和俄亥俄州至少增長得更快，即使在亞利桑那州也是如此。亞利桑那州是我們擁有的增長最快的州，而我們最近的一些州，如馬里蘭州和俄亥俄州，實際上什至更快。所以我認為好消息是，這將更快地貢獻更多的貢獻利潤。我只是不知道第二季度是否為時過早。

But either way, I think that we'll be continuing to focus on efficiency, continuing to focus on trying to get profitable sooner. That's the goal of the company. And right now, I think we're comfortable to committing to $100 million plus in EBITDA in Q4. But we're trying to get that number up, and we're trying to get every quarter to do better than what we're thinking right now. And there's a number of efficiency-oriented initiatives around the company that I think could potentially contribute some upside.

但無論哪種方式，我認為我們將繼續關注效率，繼續專注於盡快實現盈利。這就是公司的目標。現在，我認為我們很樂意在第四季度承諾 EBITDA 超過 1 億美元。但我們正在努力提高這個數字，並且我們正在努力讓每個季度都比我們現在的想法做得更好。我認為公司周圍有許多以效率為導向的舉措可能會帶來一些好處。

Our next question comes from Jed Kelly with Oppenheimer.

我們的下一個問題來自 Jed Kelly 和 Oppenheimer。

Great. Maybe following up on Carlo's question. Can you just talk about your churn rate this football season, I guess, with the higher holds, and you did have a better football outcome, too, versus last year? And what's kind of driving the underlying churn rate? And then just question just on 1Q. Can you talk about sort of some of the dynamics around the first quarter? I think last year, March Madness was a negative or lower than you thought. So can you talk about sort of some of the comps we should be thinking about for 1Q?

偉大的。也許跟進 Carlo 的問題。你能談談你這個足球賽季的流失率嗎，我想，保持率更高，而且與去年相比，你的足球成績也確實更好？是什麼推動了潛在的客戶流失率？然後只在 1Q 提問。你能談談第一季度的一些動態嗎？我認為去年，瘋狂三月是負面的，或者比你想像的要低。那麼你能談談我們應該為 1Q 考慮的一些補償嗎？

Yes, I think -- so on the first question, we've seen really strong retention rates. Obviously, we've been keeping an eye on this as hold has increased. We have other market comps that we see at even higher hold levels than us that has, I think, had decent retention. So we feel confident there's still room to increase hold without affecting churn. And thus far, we've seen only positive trends on the retention rate side.

是的，我認為 - 關於第一個問題，我們看到了非常高的保留率。顯然，隨著持有量的增加，我們一直在關注這一點。我們還有其他市場公司，我們看到它們的持有水平甚至比我們更高，我認為它們的保留率還不錯。因此，我們相信在不影響客戶流失率的情況下仍有增加持有率的空間。到目前為止，我們只看到保留率方面的積極趨勢。

As far as March Madness, I think it's been a weird last few years. You had the cancellation of March Madness in 2020. And I think college basketball is really coming back in a big way now in terms of popularity. We're seeing more adoption in the regular season than we had in the previous couple of seasons. So we think it's going to be a great March Madness, and I'm really looking forward to it. It will be -- hopefully, if Massachusetts gets live, it will be the first time that residents in Massachusetts will be able to bet and stay. So I think that will be a big opportunity, and then obviously, continuing to learn more and get better on figuring out ways to drive better bet mix.

至於瘋狂三月，我認為過去幾年很奇怪。你取消了 2020 年的瘋狂三月。而且我認為大學籃球現在在受歡迎程度方面確實有很大的回歸。與前幾個賽季相比，我們在常規賽中看到了更多的採用。所以我們認為這將是一場偉大的瘋狂三月，我真的很期待。這將是 - 希望，如果馬薩諸塞州上線，這將是馬薩諸塞州的居民第一次能夠下注並留下來。所以我認為這將是一個很大的機會，然後很明顯，繼續學習更多並更好地找出推動更好的投注組合的方法。

That said, college sports, I will say, is one of the tougher ones on the bet mix side, because a number of states don't allow player props and also people are generally just less familiar with the players, so they're more likely to combine parlays on multiple teams. So we'll be focusing there. obviously, still trying to drive the same game parlay product, too, but I think college sports, multi-game parlay is a little bit easier than same-game parlay, given some of the dynamics I described.

就是說，我要說的是，大學體育運動是博彩組合方面最艱難的運動之一，因為許多州不允許球員道具，而且人們通常對球員不太熟悉，所以他們更可能會在多個團隊中組合連勝。所以我們將專注於此。顯然，仍然試圖推動相同的遊戲 parlay 產品，但我認為大學體育，多遊戲 parlay 比同一遊戲 parlay 更容易一點，考慮到我描述的一些動態。

Great. And then just one quick follow-up. Is there anything to call out from the World Cup in 4Q that won't be in there this year?

偉大的。然後只是一個快速跟進。第四季度的世界杯有什麼值得一提但今年不會出現的嗎？

World Cup was great. I mean, no doubt about it. That said, it was low single digits percentage of our revenue. And I think we don't believe that there's anything really that you should adjust accordingly from World Cup. I think that was a nice little boost but didn't have a tremendously material impact on our financials last quarter.

世界杯很棒。我的意思是，毫無疑問。也就是說，這是我們收入的低個位數百分比。而且我認為我們不認為你真的應該從世界杯中做出任何相應的調整。我認為這是一個不錯的小提振，但並沒有對我們上個季度的財務狀況產生巨大的實質性影響。

And I would just add, Ed -- I would just add, on World Cup, that was obviously already included in the Q4 guidance that we provided in November. And when we look at the data on a customer-by-customer level, it felt more as much like a handle shift between sports that were very prevalent in Q4 as it was sort of true incrementality.

我只想補充一點，埃德——我只想補充一點，在世界杯上，這顯然已經包含在我們 11 月份提供的第四季度指南中。當我們逐個客戶查看數據時，感覺更像是第四季度非常流行的運動之間的手柄轉換，因為它是一種真正的增量。

And our next question comes from Robert Fishman with MoffettNathanson.

我們的下一個問題來自 Robert Fishman 和 MoffettNathanson。

You called out how you're looking for more efficiencies around not renewing certain team league and media rights going forward. I'm just wondering if you can expand upon these different relationships and maybe how they've changed over the past year or 2 since you first signed the deals, now that some of the other OSB players have pulled back.

您大聲疾呼如何在不續簽某些團隊聯賽和媒體權利的情況下尋求更高的效率。我只是想知道你是否可以擴展這些不同的關係，也許自從你第一次簽署協議以來，它們在過去一兩年內發生了怎樣的變化，現在其他一些 OSB 參與者已經退出。

Yes, I think what you're describing is one of the many efforts around the company aimed at becoming more efficient. And obviously, marketing being a big expense category, team and league deals being a big expense category, we feel there's room there. We've had a number of partners that have been very constructive and have agreed to reductions that would make these deals efficient in a way that we need them to be. And there's others that we will be discontinuing when the deals come up and have discontinued as they've come up over the past year. So it's really been a mix.

是的，我認為您所描述的是公司旨在提高效率的眾多努力之一。顯然，營銷是一個很大的開支類別，球隊和聯賽的交易是一個很大的開支類別，我們覺得那裡有空間。我們有許多非常有建設性的合作夥伴，他們同意削減開支，這將使這些交易以我們需要的方式變得高效。還有一些我們將在交易出現時停止，並且在過去一年中已經停止。所以這真的是一個混合體。

There's been a lot of really great partners, though. They recognized that the market's changed, have said, "Look, we want long term to be in business with DraftKings. And we realize that this is not an efficient part of the portfolio right now, and we need to rework it." And there have been others that we've had to unfortunately discontinue the deals with. So it will be a mix of things, but it's really part of an overall effort that we have to be more efficient as a company. And I think there is an opportunity in this category to get even better.

不過，有很多非常棒的合作夥伴。他們認識到市場發生了變化，他們說，“看，我們希望與 DraftKings 長期合作。我們意識到這不是目前投資組合中有效的部分，我們需要重新設計它。”不幸的是，還有其他一些我們不得不終止與他們的交易。因此，這將是多種因素的結合，但這確實是我們必須提高公司效率的整體努力的一部分。而且我認為這個類別有機會變得更好。

If I could just ask one quick follow-up. Any update you'd care to make about the future partnership with Disney? And whether the relationship has changed at all since the early days since Bob Iger is back?

如果我可以問一個快速跟進。關於未來與迪士尼的合作關係，您有什麼想說的嗎？自從 Bob Iger 回歸以來，這種關係是否發生了根本性的變化？

No. I mean we've continued to have a great relationship with Disney. ESPN, Jimmy Pitaro and his team have been great partners. So we've really enjoyed that relationship, gotten a lot out of the partnership. And we always talk to our partners about ways that we can improve and extend and grow the relationship. And Disney and ESPN have been a great partner, thus far.

不，我的意思是我們繼續與迪士尼保持著良好的關係。 ESPN、Jimmy Pitaro 和他的團隊一直是很好的合作夥伴。所以我們真的很享受這種關係，從合作夥伴關係中得到了很多。我們總是與我們的合作夥伴討論我們可以改善、擴展和發展這種關係的方法。到目前為止，迪士尼和 ESPN 一直是很好的合作夥伴。

Our next question comes from Clark Lampen with BTIG.

我們的下一個問題來自 BTIG 的 Clark Lampen。

I've got just one for Jason Park. Jason, if we assume you guys are finishing '23 with, I guess, let's just say, it's a wide range, $600 million to $800 million of cash, and you're going to be, at that point, a lot closer to breakeven on a cash flow basis, does it make sense to be a little bit more aggressive with cash usage or explore debt financing options in a market where so many of your competitors are now leaning out, at least on the sports betting side and you're past the point of having to illustrate to the market that you won't need to raise capital just to remain a going concern?

我只有一個給傑森·帕克。傑森，如果我們假設你們在 23 年結束時，我想，我們只是說，這是一個很大的範圍，6 億到 8 億美元的現金，到那時，你們將更接近收支平衡在現金流的基礎上，在現金使用方面更積極一點或在市場上探索債務融資選擇是否有意義，在這個市場上，您的許多競爭對手現在都在傾斜，至少在體育博彩方面是這樣超越了必須向市場說明您不需要籌集資金只是為了持續經營的地步？

Yes, I appreciate the question, Clark. Yes, just to clarify, I would not say that we're like $600 million to $800 million. I would say, greater than $700 million ending 2023. So maybe $700 million plus is probably a better way to think about it.

是的，我很欣賞這個問題，克拉克。是的，澄清一下，我不會說我們有 6 億到 8 億美元。我會說，到 2023 年將超過 7 億美元。因此，7 億美元以上可能是更好的考慮方式。

Yes, and look, I think the most important thing is we're in a great place where we can just focus on operating the business, finding efficiencies, not having to worry about any type of financing needs.

是的，看，我認為最重要的是我們處在一個很好的地方，我們可以專注於經營業務、提高效率，而不必擔心任何類型的融資需求。

And in terms of broader questions around debt's role at DraftKings, we'll continue to evaluate the entire capital structure, obviously, the macro environment on potential instruments like that. And we'll come back to you if anything comes to fruition.

關於債務在 DraftKings 中的作用的更廣泛問題，我們將繼續評估整個資本結構，顯然，像這樣的潛在工具的宏觀環境。如果有任何成果，我們會回來找你。

Yes, I'd just add that I think that because of our cash position, were there an opportunity to be aggressive in places, we don't need capital, whether equity or debt financing. So it's something, I think, if there was some strategic opportunity or something like that, perhaps we would explore. But from an organic standpoint, we don't need to. So I think it's unlikely you'll see us take out any debt and any -- I mean, any equity capital at all. And I think it's virtually impossible to imagine a scenario where we do so for organic purposes.

是的，我只想補充一點，我認為由於我們的現金狀況，如果有機會在某些地方積極進取，我們不需要資本，無論是股權融資還是債務融資。所以我認為，如果有一些戰略機會或類似的東西，也許我們會探索。但從有機的角度來看，我們不需要。所以我認為你不太可能看到我們拿出任何債務和任何 - 我的意思是，任何股權資本。而且我認為幾乎不可能想像我們出於有機目的而這樣做的場景。

As far as leaning in more, we are trying to be surgical, and that means not just cutting and being efficient in places that we know we need to be more efficient, but also leaning in, in places where we have the data and the conviction. That said, you asked the wrong guy in Jason Park. I don't think he's met a cost he's liked in the last year. So sometimes we have to tell Jason, you can't cut everything. But definitely, the team is, I think, as a result of having a great analytically driven culture and a great amount of data, very confident that there are places that, yes, we certainly are cutting, but we also need to be leaning into as well.

就更多的傾斜而言，我們正在努力進行外科手術，這意味著不僅要在我們知道我們需要提高效率的地方削減和提高效率，還要在我們擁有數據和信念的地方傾斜.也就是說，你問錯了賈森公園的人。我不認為他在去年遇到了他喜歡的成本。所以有時我們不得不告訴傑森，你不能削減一切。但可以肯定的是，我認為，由於擁有強大的分析驅動文化和大量數據，團隊非常有信心，我們肯定會削減一些地方，但我們也需要傾向於以及。

Our next question comes from Ben Chaiken with Credit Suisse.

我們的下一個問題來自瑞士信貸的 Ben Chaiken。

On the SG&A side, the guide for '23 suggests maybe up 10% or 12% year-over-year, '23 versus '22. I'm kind of bucketing everything between contribution profit and EBITDA. Does that growth rate continue -- and that's relative to a 40% growth rate between '22 and '21. Does that growth rate continue to decelerate even as you add new states?

在 SG&A 方面，'23 指南建議同比增長 10% 或 12%，'23 與 '22 相比。我有點把貢獻利潤和 EBITDA 之間的一切都考慮在內。這種增長率是否會持續——這是相對於 22 年和 21 年之間 40% 的增長率而言的。即使您添加了新州，該增長率是否會繼續減速？

The growth rate of fixed costs?

固定成本的增長率？

Just the whole SG&A bucket, so everything between contribution profit and EBITDA that's growing in 10% 12% range.

只是整個 SG&A 桶，所以貢獻利潤和 EBITDA 之間的一切都在 10% 12% 的範圍內增長。

No. Yes, I think there's really very little fixed cost impact of launching new states. There's some customer service sometimes, but we're also working hard to find ways to be more efficient there. So hopefully, we're able to offset any need to grow there with other efficiencies that we find. So really, it's mostly variable cost COGS that we see with new revenue coming in from new states. There's obviously marketing expense, but not really fixed cost.

不，是的，我認為啟動新州對固定成本的影響真的很小。有時會有一些客戶服務，但我們也在努力尋找提高效率的方法。因此，希望我們能夠通過我們發現的其他效率來抵消在那裡增長的任何需求。因此，實際上，我們看到新州的新收入主要是可變成本 COGS。顯然有營銷費用，但不是真正的固定成本。

I think most of our functions are at scale, are pretty close. So that's why you're seeing moderate fixed cost growth this year, a significant reduction in fixed cost growth year-over-year. And I also think that the team is working hard to be more efficient. I think that there's been a real lightbulb that's gone off here that we can do more and actually grow revenue faster if we become more efficient. And there's a connection between being better focused on expense management and efficiency with revenue growth, with doing better for the customer. And I think making that connection and realizing that actually these things feed off of each other, that the better we do to manage our expenses and be more efficient as an organization, the more that we're going to be able to deliver value for the customer. And that will actually lead to market share gains and revenue growth. I think that's been a real rallying cry for the team over the past year, and it continues to be in 2023.

我認為我們的大部分功能都是規模化的，非常接近。所以這就是為什麼你看到今年固定成本溫和增長，固定成本同比增長顯著下降。而且我還認為團隊正在努力提高效率。我認為這裡有一個真正的燈泡已經熄滅，如果我們變得更有效率，我們可以做得更多，實際上可以更快地增加收入。更好地關注費用管理和收入增長的效率以及為客戶做得更好之間存在聯繫。我認為建立這種聯繫並意識到實際上這些事情是相互促進的，我們在管理開支方面做得越好，作為一個組織越有效率，我們就越能夠為顧客。這實際上會帶來市場份額的增加和收入的增長。我認為在過去的一年裡，這對團隊來說是一個真正的戰斗口號，並且在 2023 年仍然如此。

Our next question comes from Michael Graham with Canaccord Genuity.

我們的下一個問題來自 Michael Graham 和 Canaccord Genuity。

I just wanted to ask about some of the disclosures you had around the growth in your mature states, that 2018 to 2019 cohort. You referenced 50% year-over-year growth, and you gave some good reasons for that growth around retention and increased hold. I just wanted to ask about like what you are seeing in terms of customer growth, player growth in some of those mature states? And are you -- do you feel like you're getting close to terminal penetration? Or like what are you learning about the way the model works as you kind of get a little bit deeper into some of these mature states?

我只是想問問您關於 2018 年至 2019 年成熟狀態增長的一些披露。你提到了 50% 的同比增長，並且你給出了一些關於保留率和持有量增加的增長的充分理由。我只是想問一下你在客戶增長方面看到了什麼，在一些成熟的州玩家增長？你是不是 - 你覺得你正在接近終端滲透嗎？或者當你更深入地了解其中一些成熟狀態時，你對模型的工作方式有什麼了解？

Yes, great question. So -- and thanks for calling that part of the letter out. I'd say if you unpack the 50% revenue growth that we experienced in that 2018, 2019 vintage, probably 70% was from existing customers and, call it, 20% to 30% was from new customers. So point is even though those states were in their third or fourth full year, they were -- we were still acquiring new customers. So we haven't found a ceiling yet in -- even in those more mature states in terms of total population penetration.

是的，很好的問題。所以——感謝你把這封信的那一部分說出來。我想說，如果你把我們在 2018 年、2019 年經歷的 50% 的收入增長分解開來，可能有 70% 來自現有客戶，20% 到 30% 來自新客戶。所以重點是，即使這些州已經進入第三或第四個完整的年度，他們仍然 - 我們仍在獲得新客戶。因此，我們還沒有找到上限——即使在那些就總人口普及率而言更成熟的州也是如此。

And I think also, if you look at comps around the world, other markets, I mean growth typically occurs decades. And so obviously, growth rates go down. It's not going to continue growing at 50% forever. But I don't expect we've hit any sort of ceiling there. I know different dynamics, but the iGaming market in New Jersey, which is now coming up on almost a decade, still growing. So I think lots of comps around really not just the world, but if you look at the U.S. lottery market and other sorts of comparisons, it's just very much a market that I think always has new customers coming into it. And I think there's an expectation that we should have that there will be a pretty steady growth for at least another decade or so.

而且我還認為，如果你看看世界各地的 comps，其他市場，我的意思是增長通常會發生幾十年。很明顯，增長率下降了。它不會永遠以 50% 的速度增長。但我不認為我們在那裡遇到了任何形式的天花板。我知道不同的動態，但新澤西州的 iGaming 市場現在已經快十年了，但仍在增長。因此，我認為不僅世界範圍內有很多 comps，而且如果你看看美國彩票市場和其他類型的比較，我認為它就是一個總是有新客戶進入的市場。而且我認為我們應該期望至少在未來十年左右的時間裡會有相當穩定的增長。

And just super important, Mike, like the source of growth is -- the point is it's much more than just new customer acquisition. It is existing customer handle growth, that whole improvement and continued promo reduction that drives that net revenue growth.

邁克，這非常重要，就像增長的來源一樣——關鍵是它不僅僅是獲得新客戶。現有客戶處理增長、整體改進和持續促銷減少推動了淨收入增長。

And we're still in the phase of the market where we're finding big wins on the product front. We're finding ways that we can be more smart operationally, that we can reach customers in a more effective way. So I think there's still many years of just innovation that will drive growth in our consumer wallet share. And when we think about wallet share, we don't just think about it within our own industry. We think about our customers' entertainment wallet share. And we believe that customers will be willing to spend more time with us and spend more with us if we create better products that they find more entertaining than other things they could be doing for fun.

而且我們仍處於在產品方面取得重大勝利的市場階段。我們正在尋找可以使我們的運營更加智能的方法，我們可以以更有效的方式接觸客戶。所以我認為還有很多年的創新將推動我們消費者錢包份額的增長。當我們考慮錢包份額時，我們不只是在我們自己的行業內考慮它。我們考慮客戶的娛樂錢包份額。我們相信，如果我們創造出更好的產品，讓他們覺得比其他他們可以為了好玩而做的事情更有趣，那麼客戶將願意花更多的時間和我們在一起。

Congrats on all the progress.

祝賀所有的進步。

Thank you

謝謝

And our next question comes from Bernie McTernan with Needham & Company.

我們的下一個問題來自 Needham & Company 的 Bernie McTernan。

Jason, I want to take your pulse on the M&A market. And just given everything you've talked about in the shareholder letter on profitability, does that impact your philosophy on using your stock as a currency?

傑森，我想听聽你對併購市場的看法。考慮到你在股東信中談到的關於盈利能力的所有內容，這是否會影響你將股票用作貨幣的理念？

I think they're somewhat independent. Obviously, the more that we can get some momentum behind the stock, the more attractive it becomes as a currency. But I don't think that it's really something that we really are focused on right now. We're very focused on our internal operations, focused on getting more efficient. Obviously, there will be a time in the market -- and hard to predict because we're in such a rapid phase of evolution right now. There will be a time in the market where those things really make sense and we can focus more on it. But right now, there's a lot of focus on just how we can make sure that this company is on a clear path to profitability and that we're operating in the most efficient and cost-effective way we can.

我認為他們有點獨立。顯然，我們越能在股票背後獲得一些動力，它作為一種貨幣的吸引力就越大。但我認為這並不是我們現在真正關注的事情。我們非常專注於我們的內部運營，專注於提高效率。顯然，市場會有一段時間——而且很難預測，因為我們現在正處於如此快速的發展階段。市場上總有一天這些事情會真正有意義，我們可以更加關注它。但現在，人們非常關注我們如何確保這家公司走上一條清晰的盈利之路，以及我們以最有效和最具成本效益的方式運營。

Understood. And then just a follow-up on parlays. I think a big question, just given the success, is where could it go? Do you guys have a sense in terms of just what the U.S. penetration of parlays is relative to the rest of the world or more mature markets?

明白了。然後只是對 parlays 的跟進。我認為，鑑於成功，一個大問題是它能去哪裡？你們是否知道美國的 parlays 滲透率相對於世界其他地區或更成熟的市場而言如何？

I think that's a great question, and it's tough to compare to rest of world. I think the U.S. is a bit unique. My belief is that the U.S. consumer and the gaming market, a lot of the roots of it are in the lotteries where there have been lotteries across states for a lot longer than casinos and other sorts of gaming products. And that lottery mentality of big jackpots, I think, is carried over into other products. We even see it in DFS where our most attractive offerings are the large tournaments that you can enter for anywhere from $3 to $20 and win hundreds of thousands or million plus in prices. So I think that's carrying over into the U.S. market. And I actually think for that reason, parlays have more upside than they would in other parts of the world, not to say that they're not popular in other parts of the world. They call them accumulators in Europe. And certainly, that's been a big growth area overseas. But I think the U.S. customer is uniquely oriented towards the kind of proposition of bet a little to win a lot. So I think there's a lot more upside. And we're still at the infancy stages of this product. I mean there's so much we can do to innovate and make it more exciting and more fun for the consumer.

我認為這是一個很好的問題，很難與世界其他地方進行比較。我認為美國有點獨特。我的信念是，美國消費者和博彩市場的很多根源都在於彩票，各州之間的彩票比賭場和其他類型的博彩產品存在的時間要長得多。我認為，那種中大獎的彩票心態會延續到其他產品中。我們甚至在 DFS 中也看到了這一點，其中我們最具吸引力的產品是大型錦標賽，您可以花 3 美元到 20 美元的任何費用參加這些比賽，並贏得數十萬或數百萬以上的獎金。所以我認為這正在延續到美國市場。事實上，我認為出於這個原因，連贏投注比在世界其他地方有更多的優勢，並不是說它們在世界其他地方不受歡迎。他們在歐洲稱它們為蓄能器。當然，這是海外的一個巨大增長領域。但我認為美國客戶特別傾向於那種賭少贏多的提議。所以我認為還有更多的好處。我們仍處於該產品的初級階段。我的意思是我們可以做很多事情來創新，讓消費者更興奮、更有趣。

And our next question will come from Ryan Sigdahl with Craig-Hallum.

我們的下一個問題將來自 Ryan Sigdahl 和 Craig-Hallum。

Curious to get your thoughts on the current competitive dynamics. We've seen several operators pulling back more notably on online sports betting and iGaming. But then, you have fanatics with the most notable high profile. I guess, new incumbent coming or entrant coming. How do you think about promotional and marketing intensity from an industry standpoint in 2023, better or worse year-over-year?

很想知道您對當前競爭動態的看法。我們已經看到一些運營商更明顯地撤回了在線體育博彩和在線博彩。但是，你有最引人注目的狂熱分子。我想，新的現任者即將到來或進入者即將到來。從行業的角度來看，您如何看待 2023 年的促銷和營銷強度，與去年同期相比是好是壞？

I think it will be better. There will be more mature states. I think that natural kind of promotional reduction that happens as states mature, we'll continue to see a tailwind from that. Obviously, there's always going to be new entrants coming in and out of the market.

我認為它會更好。將會有更多成熟的國家。我認為隨著各州的成熟而發生的自然的促銷減少，我們將繼續從中看到順風。顯然，總會有新進入者進出市場。

I think one thing we've seen, though, is that -- and I expect the same would apply to any new entrant. The market competitively has become much more rational. We talked about this in the letter. There was a period of time in 2020 and part of 2021, where there was really a message from the market that market share and revenue growth were all that mattered. And I think you saw some rational behaviors from some of our competition coming about as a result. And I think once the market started to change their tune, and there was more of a demand on accountability for efficiency and profitability, you saw that change. And I don't see that changing again. I think that we're in a new phase of the market where competing on a much more rational playing field is the norm. And I think that you'll continue to see that, whether it be existing operators or any new operators that come into the market.

不過，我認為我們已經看到的一件事是——我希望這同樣適用於任何新進入者。競爭激烈的市場變得更加理性。我們在信中談到了這一點。在 2020 年和 2021 年的部分時間裡，市場確實發出了一個信息，即市場份額和收入增長才是最重要的。我認為你看到了我們的一些競爭的一些理性行為。而且我認為一旦市場開始改變他們的調子，並且對效率和盈利能力的問責制有更多的需求，你就會看到這種變化。而且我認為這種情況不會再次發生變化。我認為我們正處於一個新的市場階段，在一個更加理性的競爭環境中競爭是常態。而且我認為您會繼續看到這一點，無論是現有運營商還是進入市場的任何新運營商。

Our question comes from Dan Politzer with Wells Fargo.

我們的問題來自富國銀行的 Dan Politzer。

Jason, I was hoping just to clarify on the 2023 revenue guidance. I think for the fourth quarter, you guys had $30 million uptick in revenue from the structural improvement in the hold. I just want to clarify, your 2023 guide that you issued at the same time, that did include the hold benefit? And then just for my follow-up, just the pace of the fixed OpEx deceleration, if you could maybe parse that out in terms of the G&A, product and tech and other corporate marketing. And I guess, where you're seeing the most efficiencies?

傑森，我只是希望澄清 2023 年的收入指導。我認為在第四季度，你們從持有結構的改善中獲得了 3000 萬美元的收入增長。我只是想澄清一下，您同時發布的2023年指南中是否包含保留收益？然後只是為了我的後續行動，只是固定運營支出減速的速度，如果你能從 G&A、產品和技術以及其他企業營銷方面分析出來的話。我想，您在哪裡看到效率最高？

Yes. So in terms of your first question on hold percentage, yes, that's all embedded within the guide and the H1, H2 revenue split that we provided. So any type of empirical pattern that we're seeing that we have confidence will continue, we'll embed into our guidance.

是的。因此，就您關於持有百分比的第一個問題而言，是的，這都包含在我們提供的指南和 H1、H2 收入分配中。因此，我們有信心看到的任何類型的經驗模式都將繼續，我們將嵌入我們的指南中。

And in terms of further breakdown of P&T, S&M, G&A, fixed cost growth, I think someone earlier mentioned 10% to 12% growth, I would say that, that's pretty similar across all 3 of those areas.

就 P&T、S&M、G&A、固定成本增長的進一步細分而言，我認為有人早些時候提到了 10% 到 12% 的增長，我想說的是，這三個領域都非常相似。

Our next question comes from Brandt Montour with Barclays.

我們的下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的 Brandt Montour。

I wanted to ask about iGaming. Looks like you guys have had really good success gaining share on the DraftKings side In New Jersey in the fourth quarter, Pennsylvania in the fourth quarter or Michigan in the third quarter. I was just curious if you're able to sort of break down that success between some of the things you mentioned in terms of product, like progressive jackpot or success you've had in cross-selling during this NFL season? Or if there's any sort of cross learnings you're able to -- you're leveraging from GNOG. Any color could be helpful for us.

我想問一下 iGaming。看起來你們在新澤西第四節、賓夕法尼亞第四節或密歇根第三節的 DraftKings 方面取得了非常成功的份額。我只是很好奇你是否能夠在你提到的產品方面的一些事情之間打破這種成功，比如累積獎金或你在這個 NFL 賽季中在交叉銷售方面取得的成功？或者，如果您能夠進行任何類型的交叉學習——您正在利用 GNOG。任何顏色都可能對我們有幫助。

Thank you. I appreciate it. Yes, we -- I mean, we are really pleased that in January, we had the #1 market share in iGaming in New Jersey for the first time since we launched in December of 2018. So great culmination of over 4 years of effort from the team, building products, optimizing our analytics and obviously, onboarding a new brand in GNOG. And I think the most exciting thing is that we feel the biggest upside is yet to come when we migrate GNOG to the DraftKings' platform and product suite. That's going to hopefully happen later this year. And I think that will be -- give us an additional boost as well as provide ongoing cost savings due to not having to pay revenue share to as many third parties. So lots of benefit there and I think already seeing some great results from the product side.

謝謝。我很感激。是的，我們 - 我的意思是，我們真的很高興，自 2018 年 12 月推出以來，我們在 1 月份首次在新澤西州的 iGaming 市場佔有率第一。4 年多的努力取得瞭如此巨大的成就團隊，構建產品，優化我們的分析，顯然，在 GNOG 中加入一個新品牌。我認為最令人興奮的事情是，當我們將 GNOG 遷移到 DraftKings 的平台和產品套件時，我們感到最大的好處尚未到來。這有望在今年晚些時候發生。而且我認為這將 - 給我們帶來額外的推動力，並由於不必向盡可能多的第三方支付收入分成而提供持續的成本節約。那裡有很多好處，我認為已經從產品方面看到了一些很好的結果。

And also, you mentioned, too, I think we've gotten even more effective at cross-sell, I think, especially as we get more data. That's sort of our sweet spot. The more data we have, the more effective and efficient we can become. So not only have we gotten more effective at increasing cross-sell, we've being able to do it more efficiently as well. So that's something that I'm very proud of that the team has been able to make great progress on.

而且，你也提到過，我認為我們在交叉銷售方面變得更加有效，尤其是當我們獲得更多數據時。那是我們的甜蜜點。我們擁有的數據越多，我們就能變得越有效和高效。因此，我們不僅在增加交叉銷售方面變得更加有效，而且我們也能夠更有效地做到這一點。因此，我為團隊能夠取得長足進步而感到非常自豪。

And if I may just quickly follow up on that. Is it fair to assume that 2023 guidance assumes that you're able to hold the share gains that you just recently enjoyed?

如果我可以快速跟進那件事。假設 2023 年指導假設您能夠持有您最近享受的股票收益是否公平？

Well, there's always seasonality in the business. So naturally, we're going to do best during heavy sports periods on the cross-sell fronts, more activity in the platform. So we've embedded that in. But yes, I think as far as like when you adjust for that and look at where we are today, I would say, yes, although the January report is brand new. So I can't say that we necessarily like looked at the implications of that. But more so, what we do is we look at the underlying cohort data, and we bake in adjustments for seasonality as well as any other initiatives or efforts or actions that we plan on taking.

嗯，這個行業總是有季節性的。因此，很自然地，我們將在交叉銷售方面的繁重運動期間做得最好，在平台上進行更多活動。所以我們已經把它嵌入了。但是，是的，我認為就當你對此進行調整併看看我們今天所處的位置時，我會說，是的，儘管 1 月份的報告是全新的。所以我不能說我們一定喜歡看它的含義。但更重要的是，我們所做的是查看基礎隊列數據，並根據季節性因素以及我們計劃採取的任何其他舉措、努力或行動進行調整。

Our next question comes from Joe Stauff with SIG.

我們的下一個問題來自 SIG 的 Joe Stauff。

I wanted to follow up and ask on user growth. Jason, you had mentioned, and certainly, we can observe this that states are -- they're ramping so much faster. And so I guess, what is the right way to think about kind of how long it takes you to reach that sort of golden cohort now it is, I guess, maybe versus a year, 1.5 years ago? And then I had one follow-up, please.

我想跟進並詢問用戶增長情況。傑森，你提到過，當然，我們可以觀察到各州——它們的增長速度要快得多。所以我想，考慮現在達到那種黃金隊列需要多長時間的正確方法是什麼，我想，也許與 1.5 年前相比？然後我有一個跟進，拜託。

Well, it's a great question, Joe. I think this is a tricky one because as we compare states, there's differences in time of year. So we talk about Arizona ramping quickly. That was in September. And then you try to compare that to a state like Ohio or Maryland that launched Maryland towards the end of the year, Ohio Jan 1, or Massachusetts that we expect to launch in March. And you have to -- there's only a limited number of data points when you have all those different variables to really be able to say. But I think that's sort of a big-picture level.

嗯，這是一個很好的問題，喬。我認為這是一個棘手的問題，因為當我們比較各州時，一年中的時間有所不同。所以我們談論亞利桑那州的快速增長。那是在九月。然後您嘗試將其與俄亥俄州或馬里蘭州等在年底啟動馬里蘭州、俄亥俄州 1 月 1 日或我們預計在 3 月啟動的馬薩諸塞州進行比較。而且你必須——當你真正能夠說出所有這些不同的變量時，只有有限數量的數據點。但我認為這是一個大局。

The implication is, one, there's probably some deeper investment upfront. So I think that what we've been really happy to see is that we've actually, at least through 2022, been able to absorb that by finding efficiencies throughout the rest of the business. If you look at the letter, we basically funded all of the state launches in 2022 through finding cost efficiencies elsewhere in the business. But then the other implication of it is that the inflection towards contribution profit positive happens sooner. You get greater operating leverage sooner, which means more upside from a revenue and profitability standpoint sooner. So I think that's kind of the way to think about it.

這意味著，第一，可能會有一些更深層次的前期投資。因此，我認為我們真正高興地看到的是，至少到 2022 年，我們實際上已經能夠通過提高整個業務的效率來吸收這一點。如果你看一下這封信，我們基本上是通過在業務的其他地方尋找成本效率來資助 2022 年所有州的發射。但它的另一個含義是，貢獻利潤向正的拐點會更快發生。您可以更快地獲得更大的運營槓桿，這意味著從收入和盈利能力的角度來看，可以更快地獲得更多收益。所以我認為這是一種思考方式。

Exactly how it ends up netting out over the course of the year, I think we need a little bit more data to see. But at a macro level, that's kind of how I describe it. And it is -- no matter what, whether you take seasonality, anything else, it is unequivocally observably true that states are ramping much faster than they were 3, 4 years ago.

它究竟是如何在一年中最終實現淨收益的，我認為我們需要更多的數據才能看到。但在宏觀層面上，我就是這麼描述的。而且它是——無論如何，無論你考慮季節性因素還是其他因素，各州的增長速度比 3、4 年前要快得多，這一點是顯而易見的。

That makes sense. And then maybe just a follow-up on structural hold in general. You certainly mentioned that the new in-house NBA same-game parlay sort of capabilities that you had launched, and I was wondering I know at least for part of your NFL product, you do outsource same-game parlay. I'm wondering if your '23 guide includes bringing that in-house.

這就說得通了。然後可能只是對一般結構性持有的後續行動。你肯定提到過你推出的新的內部 NBA 同場比賽 parlay 功能，我想知道至少對於你的 NFL 產品的一部分，你確實外包了同場比賽 parlay。我想知道您的 23 年指南是否包括將其帶入內部。

So the team is working at bringing that in-house now. As far as our '23 guide, we do expect, at some point in 2023, that, that will be the case, and that is built into the guide, but it won't affect the entirety of 2023. And I noted this earlier, we have already started to roll out some of our own in-house SGP -- most recently, the live SGP NBA product we rolled out, which was the first in the industry to -- we were the first in the industry to have it. So I think that's a good signal that we're reaching a period where we have now with over a 1.5 years under our belt, lots of data to build out some of these new models. We've gotten to a point where we feel like we can put out models that are as good or better than what we can get off the shelf from third parties.

因此，該團隊現在正在努力將其引入內部。就我們的 23 年指南而言，我們確實預計在 2023 年的某個時候會出現這種情況，並且已納入指南中，但它不會影響整個 2023 年。我之前註意到了這一點，我們已經開始推出一些我們自己的內部 SGP——最近，我們推出了現場 SGP NBA 產品，這是業內第一個——我們是業內第一個擁有它的人.所以我認為這是一個很好的信號，表明我們正在進入一個時期，我們現在已經擁有超過 1.5 年的時間，大量數據可以構建其中的一些新模型。我們已經到了這樣的地步，我們覺得我們可以推出與第三方現成產品一樣好或更好的模型。

Our next question comes from Chad Beynon with Macquarie.

我們的下一個問題來自 Chad Beynon 和 Macquarie。

First, just wanted to ask about opportunities or aspirations in non-North American markets. Given your data science and kind of all the learnings that you've had in the past couple of years, it seems like you're in a pretty good position to make it then in some of those markets. Obviously, a lot to do still here in North America, but wondering if anything has changed in other markets.

首先，只想詢問非北美市場的機會或願望。鑑於你的數據科學和你在過去幾年中所獲得的所有知識，你似乎處於一個非常有利的位置，可以在其中一些市場中取得成功。顯然，北美還有很多事情要做，但想知道其他市場是否有任何變化。

I do think you're right that the technology we've built is going to be very portable to the global gaming market. And we believe that when we do decide to expand overseas, we'll have advantages over incumbent competition when it comes to product, when it comes to hold rate, things like that. That said, we are laser-focused on the U.S. and on Ontario right now. I think that the opportunity here remains very significant and growing. We have a lot of work to do to become more efficient as an organization that we need to focus on. There will be a time and a place to focus on international expansion, but it's not going to be right now. Doesn't mean that we won't look at it and start to do some exploratory work this year behind the scenes. I think we have to always be thinking about what future things we want to do and start laying some of the research and groundwork for that. But on the whole, the team is very focused on how do we continue to make progress and do better for the customer in the U.S. and how do we continue to become more efficient and cost effective as an organization.

我確實認為你是對的，我們建立的技術將非常適合全球遊戲市場。我們相信，當我們決定向海外擴張時，在產品、持有率等方面，我們將比現有競爭對手更具優勢。也就是說，我們現在專注於美國和安大略省。我認為這裡的機會仍然非常重要，而且還在不斷增長。作為一個我們需要關注的組織，要提高效率，我們還有很多工作要做。將有時間和地點專注於國際擴張，但不是現在。並不意味著我們今年不會關注它並開始在幕後進行一些探索性工作。我認為我們必須始終考慮我們想要做的未來事情，並開始為此奠定一些研究和基礎。但總的來說，團隊非常關注我們如何繼續取得進步並為美國客戶做得更好，以及我們如何繼續提高組織的效率和成本效益。

And then a follow-up to that, just on the iGaming, iCasino legislation. I know you and your competitors on the mobile side are doing a lot of work communicating the story, but it also seems like a lot of the land-based operators are as well, as they've seen probably lower cannibalization than they may have feared. So do you think there will be more momentum? Do you think that's more based on kind of what happens in the economy? What's really going to start kind of the rolling stone for more iCasino discussions?

然後是關於 iGaming、iCasino 立法的後續行動。我知道你和你在移動端的競爭對手正在做很多工作來傳播這個故事，但似乎很多陸基運營商也是如此，因為他們看到的蠶食率可能比他們擔心的要低.那麼你認為會有更多的勢頭嗎？你認為這更多是基於經濟中發生的事情嗎？什麼真正會啟動更多關於 iCasino 討論的滾石？

Yes, it's a great question. And I think that there are -- you noted one. I think, certainly, the opportunity for tax revenue, and should states find themselves more in need of that, that could have an effect.

是的，這是一個很好的問題。我認為有——你提到了一個。我認為，當然，稅收的機會，如果各州發現自己更需要稅收，那可能會產生影響。

I also think that as an industry, we need to do a better job getting the story out there. There's a lot of great work that's been done by the EGA and other groups to really put the data out there about just how significant and large the illegal sports betting market is. And I think that's been a big driver of policymakers saying, "Look, we got to do something here."

我還認為，作為一個行業，我們需要做得更好，把故事傳播出去。 EGA 和其他團體已經做了很多偉大的工作，以真正公佈非法體育博彩市場的重要性和規模的數據。我認為這是政策制定者說“看，我們必須在這裡做點什麼”的重要推動力。

I don't think there's been nearly as much coverage of the illegal iGaming market, even though it exists. I mean if you go to pretty much any of the mobile sportsbooks and online sports books that you see overseas that are operating illegally, they -- almost all of them have an online casino. It's just not talked about as much. I think inherently, it's a less social product. People talk about it less. And then like I said, the industry probably just hasn't focused as much as we could have on really making that data clear.

我認為對非法在線博彩市場的報導幾乎沒有那麼多，即使它存在。我的意思是，如果你去看看你在海外看到的幾乎所有非法經營的移動體育博彩和在線體育博彩，他們——幾乎所有這些博彩公司都有一個在線賭場。它只是沒有被談論那麼多。我認為從本質上講，它是一種社交性較低的產品。人們很少談論它。然後就像我說的那樣，這個行業可能沒有像我們那樣專注於真正使數據清晰。

So I think it's a combination of those 2 things of states that see the tax opportunity and realize that there's a real way to take something that's happening already, just like sports betting is in the illegal market and bring it into the light and protect consumers and also generate revenue for the state.

所以我認為這是看到稅收機會並意識到有一個真正的方法來採取已經發生的事情的州的這兩件事的結合，就像體育博彩在非法市場上一樣，並將其公之於眾並保護消費者和也為國家創造收入。

And our next question comes from Robin Farley with UBS.

我們的下一個問題來自瑞銀的 Robin Farley。

I wonder if you could give us a little bit of color on your guidance for states that are contribution positive? It was 11 states getting to $105 million last year. For the $500 million this year, how many states will that be to generate that $500 million? And is it still -- at one point, you talked about a 3-year payback period for when a new state legalizes until it's profitable. Is that faster now, given the ramp-up in Arizona? What would you say that timeline is?

我想知道您是否可以給我們一些關於您對貢獻積極的州的指導意見？去年有 11 個州達到 1.05 億美元。對於今年的 5 億美元，將有多少州產生這 5 億美元？它仍然是 - 有一次，你談到了一個新州合法化直到盈利的 3 年投資回收期。考慮到亞利桑那州的增長，現在速度是否更快？你說那個時間表是什麼？

And then last, little clarification. You talked about the percent of population that your long-term guidance is 7% to 9% of new OSB every year. It's fair to say, though, right, that your '23 and '24 guidance. This is if your '24 guidance doesn't rely on any states that haven't already actually legalized just not operational yet, right? In other words, no new legislation needs to happen for that to be hit?

最後一點澄清。你談到了你的長期指導是每年新 OSB 的 7% 到 9% 的人口百分比。不過，可以公平地說，您的 23 和 24 年指南是對的。這是如果您的 24 年指南不依賴於任何尚未真正合法化但尚未運作的州，對嗎？換句話說，不需要通過新的立法來打擊它嗎？

That last point is correct. The only state that's not even live yet that we did assume in the guidance is Massachusetts. And the reason is it's pretty far down the line. So we felt it was more helpful to investors to get a view with Massachusetts included. But we have not assumed any other state launches from new legalization that happens this year.

最後一點是正確的。我們在指南中假設的唯一一個尚未存在的州是馬薩諸塞州。原因是它還差得遠。因此，我們認為將馬薩諸塞州包括在內對投資者的看法更有幫助。但我們還沒有假設任何其他州會從今年發生的新合法化中啟動。

As far as -- I'm going to try to remember that. I think the first one, on a sort of state-by-state basis, we have not disclosed which states are contribution profit positive for '23 yet. We plan on covering that in more detail at our Investor Day later this year. So we will be providing additional disclosure and data on that. We had to save something for that to keep -- to get you to show up, Robin. And then on -- I'm sorry, what was your second question? Oh speed and inflection.

至於——我會試著記住這一點。我認為第一個，在逐個州的基礎上，我們還沒有透露哪些州對 23 年的貢獻利潤為正。我們計劃在今年晚些時候的投資者日更詳細地介紹這一點。因此，我們將提供額外的披露和數據。我們必須保存一些東西來保存它——讓你出現，羅賓。然後 - 對不起，你的第二個問題是什麼？哦速度和變形。

Oh just the speed.

哦，只是速度。

And proximity inflection. Yes, yes. So I think you're absolutely correct. One of the implications of faster ramping with new states, that the inflection to profitability and the degree of operating leverage that you get earlier is greater than what we had seen in some of the earlier states that launched in more of the 2018, '19, '20 time frame. So there is that implication, and I think that could potentially have an effect not just with the states we're seeing launch in recent months as well as Massachusetts, but with future states that launched that again, something I think we'll address at the Investor Day.

和鄰近變化。是的是的。所以我認為你是完全正確的。新州快速增長的影響之一是，您較早獲得的盈利能力和運營槓桿程度的變化大於我們在 2018 年、'19 年的更多時間推出的一些較早的州所看到的情況， '20 時間框架。所以有這樣的暗示，我認為這可能不僅對我們最近幾個月看到的州和馬薩諸塞州產生影響，而且對未來再次啟動的州產生影響，我認為我們將在投資者日。

But in a nutshell, to answer your question directly, I do think it brings in the time line to path to profitability for a new state. And we'll be providing a more specific update on that later this year.

但簡而言之，直接回答你的問題，我確實認為它為新州的盈利之路帶來了時間線。我們將在今年晚些時候提供更具體的更新。

I just want to be clear, Robin, that 2024 EBITDA does include an assumption of more states legalized.

我只是想明確一點，羅賓，2024 年的 EBITDA 確實包括更多州合法化的假設。

Yes. Sorry. So '23 does not. '24, we have assumed 7% to 9% or 7% to 8%, I forget, if the population launches for sports betting and 3% to 4% for iGaming.

是的。對不起。所以'23沒有。 '24，我們假設 7% 到 9% 或 7% 到 8%，我忘記了，如果人口開始進行體育博彩，3% 到 4% 用於 iGaming。

Okay. So that would be some new states in this legislative session, right, would have to...

好的。所以這將是本屆立法會議中的一些新州，對吧，必須......

That would be, yes. And the implication, if that comes in high or low or if it's less so, while it may mean less TAM, it actually means we're probably going to have faster profitability ramp. So I think either way, it's a good story for the company. But obviously, we're pushing hard to get more legislation passed.

那是，是的。這意味著，如果它出現在高位或低位，或者如果它不那麼高，雖然它可能意味著更少的 TAM，但它實際上意味著我們可能會有更快的盈利能力提升。所以我認為無論哪種方式，這對公司來說都是一個好故事。但顯然，我們正在努力爭取通過更多立法。

And then also, that would mean that your 2023 guidance includes the losses from those new states, right? If the profitability is in your '24 guidance, the losses would be in the '23 guidance already. In theory, that would be required...

然後，這也意味著您的 2023 年指導包括這些新州的損失，對嗎？如果盈利能力在你的 24 年指南中，那麼損失就已經在 23 年的指南中了。從理論上講，這將需要...

No, no, sorry. We did not -- no. We assumed, other than Massachusetts, no more state launches in '23. So there will be no effect in '23 if that occurs. If we do see more states launch in '23, yes, that will happen. But what I was referring to was launches in '24. So what that would mean is that the investment period for those states would be in '24. And it would have a downward -- sorry, if there were not launches, would have a positive impact on EBITDA in 2024.

不，不，對不起。我們沒有——不。我們假設，除馬薩諸塞州外，23 年不會再有其他州發射。因此，如果發生這種情況，將不會對 23 年產生任何影響。如果我們確實看到更多州在 23 年推出，是的，那將會發生。但我指的是 24 年的發布。所以這意味著這些州的投資期將在 24 年。而且它會向下 - 抱歉，如果沒有發布，將對 2024 年的 EBITDA 產生積極影響。

And our next question comes from Joe Greff with JPMorgan.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Joe Greff。

Just with regard to the incremental benefit in '23 -- or '23 updated guidance versus 3 months ago and the benefit coming from more efficient promotional activity and more efficient promotional reinvestment, how broad-based is that? Or how market concentrated is that? And then how much of a benefit from a market like New York is driving that improvement?

就 23 年或 23 年更新指南與 3 個月前相比的增量收益以及來自更有效的促銷活動和更有效的促銷再投資的收益而言，它的基礎有多廣泛？或者市場集中度如何？那麼像紐約這樣的市場在多大程度上推動了這種改善？

Well, the bulk of our guidance increase on the EBITDA side came from direct management. So about half of it came -- or about $50 million of it, I should say, came from compensation expense, about $50 million came from marketing. So definitely a big impact there.

那麼，我們在 EBITDA 方面的大部分指導增長來自直接管理。所以其中大約一半來自——或者我應該說，其中大約 5000 萬美元來自補償費用，大約 5000 萬美元來自營銷。所以肯定有很大的影響。

Some of the revenue increase was hold rate and promotion optimization. Some of it was some underlying handle/retention metrics we're seeing in our cohorts. As far as state by state, I don't think there's anything in particular at the state level that's different. States are maturing as expected. And the increases we're seeing, the hold rate are happening across the board. We do see in some of the newer states that we've launched that we have faster adoption of parlays and same-game parlays. I think that's largely because our product offering is in such a better place than it was a couple of years ago. But that, I think, is probably the one example. Other than that, I think the increases that we're making to hold rate and other things that are driving underlying performance on the retention and monetization front are really across state vintages.

部分收入增長來自持有率和促銷優化。其中一些是我們在我們的隊列中看到的一些潛在的處理/保留指標。就各州而言，我認為在州一級沒有什麼特別不同的地方。正如預期的那樣，各州正在走向成熟。我們看到的增長，持有率正在全面發生。我們確實看到，在我們推出的一些較新的州中，我們更快地採用了 parlays 和相同遊戲的 parlays。我認為這主要是因為我們的產品供應比幾年前更好。但我認為，這可能就是一個例子。除此之外，我認為我們正在提高持有率以及其他推動保留率和貨幣化方面的基本績效的因素實際上是跨州的。

Thank you. And that's all the time we have for questions. I'd like to turn the call back to Jason Robbins for closing remarks.

謝謝。這就是我們提問的全部時間。我想將電話轉回 Jason Robbins 以作結束語。

Thank you all for joining us on today's call. We had a really great finish to 2022 and are excited about 2023 and beyond. I look forward to speaking with you over the next few weeks, and hope you all stay safe and well. Thank you.

感謝大家參加今天的電話會議。我們在 2022 年取得了非常好的成績，並對 2023 年及以後感到興奮。我期待著在接下來的幾週內與您交談，並希望您一切安好。謝謝。

This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.

今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連接。