發現金融 (DFS) 2022 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good morning. My name is Todd, and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2022 Discover Financial Services Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) I will now turn the call over to Mr. Eric Wasserstrom, Head of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

早上好。我叫托德，今天我將擔任你們的會議接線員。此時，我想歡迎大家參加 Discover Financial Services 2022 年第四季度和全年收益電話會議。 （操作員說明）我現在將電話轉給投資者關係主管 Eric Wasserstrom 先生。請繼續。

Thanks, Todd, and good morning, everyone, and welcome to today's call. I'll begin on Slide 2 of the earnings presentation, which you can find in financial section of our Investor Relations website, investorrelations.discover.com.

謝謝托德，大家早上好，歡迎來到今天的電話會議。我將從收益演示的幻燈片 2 開始，您可以在我們的投資者關係網站 investorrelations.discover.com 的財務部分找到它。

Our discussion today contains certain forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially. Please refer to our notices regarding forward-looking statements that appear in the fourth quarter earnings press release and presentation.

我們今天的討論包含某些前瞻性陳述，這些陳述受風險和不確定因素的影響，可能導致實際結果出現重大差異。請參閱我們關於第四季度收益新聞稿和演示文稿中出現的前瞻性陳述的通知。

On our call today will include remarks from our CEO, Roger Hochschild; and John Greene, our Chief Financial Officer. After we conclude our formal comments, there will be time for a question-and-answer session. During the Q&A session, you'll be permitted to ask one question followed by one follow-up question. After your follow-up questions, please return to the queue.

我們今天的電話會議將包括我們的首席執行官 Roger Hochschild 的講話；和我們的首席財務官 John Greene。在我們結束正式評論後，將有時間進行問答環節。在問答環節中，您可以先問一個問題，然後再問一個後續問題。在您提出後續問題後，請返回隊列。

And with that, it's my pleasure to turn the call over to Roger.

因此，我很高興將電話轉給羅傑。

Thanks, Eric, and thanks to our listeners for joining today's call. I want to begin by reviewing the highlights and key metrics for the year, and then John will take you through the details of our fourth quarter results and our perspectives on 2023.

謝謝埃里克，也感謝我們的聽眾加入今天的電話會議。我想首先回顧一下今年的亮點和關鍵指標，然後約翰將帶您詳細了解我們第四季度的業績以及我們對 2023 年的展望。

I'm very pleased to say that 2022 was the second strongest year for earnings in our company's history. We reported net income of $1 billion or $3.77 per share for the fourth quarter and $4.4 billion or $15.50 per share for the full year. This was accomplished against a fluid and unusual macroeconomic and monetary policy backdrop and I want to thank the entire Discover team for their solid execution. This performance gives us significant momentum going into 2023 and beyond.

我很高興地說，2022 年是我們公司歷史上盈利第二強的一年。我們報告第四季度淨收入為 10 億美元或每股 3.77 美元，全年淨收入為 44 億美元或每股 15.50 美元。這是在不穩定且異常的宏觀經濟和貨幣政策背景下實現的，我要感謝整個 Discover 團隊的紮實執行。這一表現為我們提供了進入 2023 年及以後的巨大動力。

I want to give a few highlights that underscore these strong results. First, we grew new accounts by 23% and loan receivables by 20%. This demonstrates the appeal of our consumer value proposition and advancements in our consumer targeting and acquisition capabilities while maintaining our conservative approach to underwriting and credit management.

我想提出一些亮點來強調這些強勁的成果。首先，我們的新賬戶增長了 23%，應收貸款增長了 20%。這證明了我們的消費者價值主張的吸引力以及我們在消費者定位和獲取能力方面的進步，同時保持了我們對承保和信貸管理的保守方法。

We're also prudently investing for growth, including in acquisition and brand marketing, the continuing build out of our data and analytic capabilities, and increasing field personnel for both servicing and collections, all while achieving a 39% efficiency ratio. The combination of revenue expansion and disciplined cost management contributed to our 31% return on equity this past year and underscores the highly capital-generative nature of our business model.

我們還謹慎地投資於增長，包括收購和品牌營銷、持續構建我們的數據和分析能力，以及增加服務和收款的現場人員，同時實現 39% 的效率比。收入擴張和嚴格的成本管理相結合，使我們去年實現了 31% 的股本回報率，並凸顯了我們業務模式的高度資本生成性。

Over the course of 2022, we repurchased $2.4 billion in common stock and increased our dividend by over 20%, and we expect to sustain attractive levels of capital return to our shareholders into the future.

在 2022 年期間，我們回購了 24 億美元的普通股，並將股息增加了 20% 以上，我們希望在未來為股東維持有吸引力的資本回報水平。

As we look into 2023, we expect a less favorable macroeconomic backdrop. Nevertheless, we intend to maintain an appropriate level of investment in our organization. For example, we have several initiatives that will improve our digital marketing capabilities, and we anticipate the broad market launch of our mass market Cashback Debit product. And of course, we'll continue to invest in our brand and in account acquisition in a manner consistent with the environment.

展望 2023 年，我們預計宏觀經濟背景將不那麼有利。儘管如此，我們打算在我們的組織中保持適當的投資水平。例如，我們有幾項舉措可以提高我們的數字營銷能力，我們預計我們的大眾市場現金返還借記產品將廣泛投放市場。當然，我們將繼續以符合環境的方式投資於我們的品牌和客戶獲取。

We're very aware of the climate in which we are operating. And should there be changes in economic conditions, we will adjust. Our model with its focus on prime lending and through-the-cycle underwriting has historically supported resilient returns through the economic cycle. These factors, combined with our earnings power, reserves and capital, underpin our strategy of being the leading consumer digital bank.

我們非常了解我們經營所在的氣候。如果經濟狀況發生變化，我們將進行調整。我們的模型專注於優質貸款和整個週期的承保，歷來支持經濟周期中的彈性回報。這些因素，再加上我們的盈利能力、儲備和資本，鞏固了我們成為領先的消費數字銀行的戰略。

I'll now turn the call over to John to review our results in more detail.

我現在將電話轉給約翰，以更詳細地審查我們的結果。

Thank you, Roger, and good morning, everyone. I'll start with our financial summary results on Slide 4. The takeaway of the quarter is largely about strong asset growth, net interest margin expansion, partially offset by growth-based provisioning. Asset growth combined with a NIM rate improvement, increased revenue 7% sequentially and 27% year-over-year.

謝謝羅傑，大家早上好。我將從幻燈片 4 上的財務摘要結果開始。本季度的收穫主要是關於強勁的資產增長、淨息差擴張，部分被基於增長的撥備抵消。資產增長加上淨息差提高，收入環比增長 7%，同比增長 27%。

Similar to last quarter, asset growth also drove an increase in our reserves of $313 million. This increase kept our reserve coverage ratio relatively flat at 6.6%. In the prior year, we released $39 million of reserves. So while our reported net income was down 3% year-over-year, adjusting for the reserve change, our net income would have been 23% higher on a year-over-year basis.

與上一季度類似，資產增長也推動我們的儲備增加 3.13 億美元。這一增長使我們的準備金覆蓋率保持在 6.6% 的相對持平。在前一年，我們釋放了 3900 萬美元的準備金。因此，雖然我們報告的淨收入同比下降 3%，但根據準備金變化進行調整，我們的淨收入同比增長 23%。

Let's review the details starting on Slide 5. Net interest income was up $584 million year-over-year or 24%. Our net interest margin expanded, benefiting from the higher prime rate partially offset by higher funding costs and increased promotional balances. NIM ended the quarter at 11.27%, up 46 basis points from the prior year and 22 basis points sequentially. For the full year, NIM was 11.04%, up 28 basis points from the prior year.

讓我們從幻燈片 5 開始查看詳細信息。淨利息收入同比增長 5.84 億美元或 24%。我們的淨息差擴大，受益於較高的最優惠利率，部分被較高的融資成本和增加的促銷餘額所抵消。 NIM 本季度末為 11.27%，較上年同期上漲 46 個基點，環比上漲 22 個基點。全年淨息差為 11.04%，較上年上升 28 個基點。

Receivable growth was driven by card which increased 21% year-over-year, reflecting continued strong sales, new account growth and payment rate moderation. Sales increased 8% in the period, a deceleration from the 15% growth we experienced in the prior quarter and a 20% in the first half of the year.

應收賬款增長是由信用卡推動的，同比增長 21%，反映出持續強勁的銷售、新賬戶增長和支付率放緩。銷售額在此期間增長了 8%，與上一季度 15% 和今年上半年 20% 的增長相比有所放緩。

New card accounts grew by 17% from last year's fourth quarter. Similar to the prior quarter, the sales growth decline was mitigated by a decrease in the payment rate, which fell 150 basis points in the quarter. We expect payment rates to continue to decline through 2023, but at a more moderate pace.

新卡賬戶比去年第四季度增長了 17%。與上一季度類似，銷售增長的下滑因支付率下降而得到緩解，該季度支付率下降了 150 個基點。我們預計支付率將在 2023 年之前繼續下降，但下降速度將更為溫和。

Turning to our non-card products. Organic student loans increased 4% as a result of peak season originations. Personal loans were up 15%. We continue to stay disciplined in our approach to marketing, underwriting and pricing of this product. Our attractive value proposition has positioned us well in the market that is experiencing strong consumer demand and some improvement in competitive conditions.

轉向我們的非卡片產品。由於旺季發放，有機學生貸款增加了 4%。個人貸款增長了 15%。我們在該產品的營銷、承銷和定價方法上繼續保持自律。我們具有吸引力的價值主張使我們在消費者需求強勁且競爭條件有所改善的市場中處於有利地位。

In terms of funding mix, our customer deposit balances were up 10% year-over-year and 5% sequentially. Deposit pricing continues to be in line with what we expected in a rising rate environment. Recently, we have seen some moderation in the pace of pricing changes.

在資金組合方面，我們的客戶存款餘額同比增長 10%，環比增長 5%。在利率上升的環境下，存款定價繼續符合我們的預期。最近，我們看到定價變化的步伐有所放緩。

Looking at other revenue on Slide 6. Noninterest income increased $212 million or 47%. This was partially due to a $138 million loss on our equity investments in the prior year quarter, compared to a $6 million loss this quarter. Adjusting for these, our noninterest income was up 14%. This increase was primarily driven by 2 items. First, loan fee income was up $51 million or 39%, driven by volume. And second, we had higher net discount and interchange revenue, which was up $23 million or 7% reflecting strong sales and a favorable sales mix, partially offset by higher rewards costs.

查看幻燈片 6 上的其他收入。非利息收入增加了 2.12 億美元或 47%。這在一定程度上是由於我們去年同期的股權投資虧損 1.38 億美元，而本季度虧損 600 萬美元。調整這些因素後，我們的非利息收入增長了 14%。這一增長主要是由 2 個項目推動的。首先，在交易量的推動下，貸款手續費收入增加了 5100 萬美元或 39%。其次，我們的淨折扣和交換收入增加了 2300 萬美元或 7%，這反映出強勁的銷售和有利的銷售組合，部分被更高的獎勵成本所抵消。

Moving to expenses on Slide 7. Total operating expenses were up $183 million or 14% year-over-year and up 8% from the prior quarter. Compensation costs were up primarily due to increased headcount and wage inflation. Marketing expenses increased $42 million or 15% as we continue to prudently invest for growth in our card in consumer banking products. Premise and equipment expense was elevated this quarter due to a onetime write-off related to the exit of our Phoenix servicing location. Adjusting for this, premise and equipment would have been flat to the prior year quarter. With this recent action, we have resized or exited 3 of our 4 major call center locations, and we'll continue to evaluate our footprint going forward.

轉到幻燈片 7 的支出。總運營支出同比增長 1.83 億美元或 14%，比上一季度增長 8%。薪酬成本上升主要是由於員工人數增加和工資上漲。營銷費用增加了 4200 萬美元或 15%，因為我們繼續審慎地投資於我們的消費銀行產品卡的增長。由於與我們鳳凰城服務地點的退出相關的一次性註銷，本季度的場地和設備費用有所增加。對此進行調整後，前提和設備將與去年同期持平。通過最近的這一行動，我們調整了或退出了 4 個主要呼叫中心位置中的 3 個，我們將繼續評估我們未來的足跡。

Moving to credit performance on Slide 8. Total net charge-offs were 2.13%, 76 basis points higher than the prior year and up 42 basis points from the prior quarter. In the card portfolio, the net charge-off rate of 2.37% was 87 basis points higher than the prior year and 45 basis points higher sequentially.

轉向幻燈片 8 的信貸表現。淨註銷總額為 2.13%，比上年高 76 個基點，比上一季度高 42 個基點。在信用卡組合中，淨註銷率為 2.37%，比上年高 87 個基點，比上一季度高 45 個基點。

As expected, portfolio loss rates are normalizing, reflecting seasoning of new account vintages from the past 2 years, normalization of older vintages and mild deterioration and low credit bands, largely inflation-driven. These trends are within our expected risk tolerances and are consistent with our historical approach to underwriting and credit management. Among our core prime revolver segment, we don't see evidence of broader stress given the robust labor market. I'll cover our 2023 view in a moment.

正如預期的那樣，投資組合損失率正在正常化，反映了過去 2 年新賬戶年份的老化、舊年份的正常化以及輕度惡化和低信用帶，這主要是由通脹驅動的。這些趨勢在我們預期的風險承受能力範圍內，並且與我們以往的承保和信貸管理方法一致。在我們的核心主要左輪手槍細分市場中，鑑於強勁的勞動力市場，我們沒有看到更廣泛壓力的證據。稍後我將介紹我們的 2023 年觀點。

Turning to the discussions of our allowance on Slide 9. This quarter, we increased our allowance by $313 million driven by the increase in receivable balances. Our reserve rate declined slightly to 6.6%. Adjusting for the elevated level of transactor balances in the fourth quarter, our reserve rate would have been near sequentially flat. Under the CECL accounting standard, we are required to contemplate life of loan losses and adjust our reserve levels accordingly. For us, changes to employment conditions pose the most significant risk to our forecast.

轉到幻燈片 9 上關於我們備抵的討論。本季度，由於應收賬款餘額的增加，我們將備抵增加了 3.13 億美元。我們的準備金率小幅下降至 6.6%。調整第四季度交易商餘額的高水平，我們的準備金率將接近環比持平。根據 CECL 會計準則，我們需要考慮貸款損失的期限並相應調整我們的準備金水平。對我們來說，就業條件的變化對我們的預測構成了最大的風險。

For the year-end 2022 reserve, our baseline assumption was unemployment in 2023 between 4.5% and 6% -- 5% with alternative scenarios above 6%.

對於 2022 年年底的準備金，我們的基線假設是 2023 年的失業率在 4.5% 到 6% 之間——5%，替代方案高於 6%。

Looking at Slide 10. Our common equity Tier 1 for the period was 13.3%. Our longer-term target remains at 10.5%. We expect to make progress against this target over the next 4 to 6 quarters. Yesterday, we announced a quarterly common dividend of $0.60 per share. And in the fourth quarter of 2022, we repurchased $602 million of common stock.

查看幻燈片 10。我們在此期間的普通股 1 為 13.3%。我們的長期目標仍然是 10.5%。我們預計在接下來的 4 到 6 個季度內將在實現這一目標方面取得進展。昨天，我們宣布派發每股 0.60 美元的季度普通股息。在 2022 年第四季度，我們回購了 6.02 億美元的普通股。

Concluding on Slide 11 with our outlook. Momentum is strong, which should help to generate double-digit revenue growth and positive operating leverage. We expect end-of-period loan growth to be in the low double digits with average loan growth somewhat higher. This is driven by 3 factors: our prior year growth in new accounts, moderation in the payment rate, and sales volume trends. Through mid-January, sales are up 13%, but we expect deceleration to the high single digits over the course of the year.

以我們的展望結束幻燈片 11。勢頭強勁，這應該有助於產生兩位數的收入增長和積極的經營槓桿。我們預計期末貸款增長將處於低兩位數，平均貸款增長略高。這是由 3 個因素驅動的：我們上一年新客戶的增長、支付率的放緩和銷量趨勢。到 1 月中旬，銷售額增長了 13%，但我們預計全年會減速至較高的個位數。

We expect net interest margin to be modestly higher than the full year 2022 levels. More specifically, we expect NIM to be above the fourth quarter levels in the first half of the year driven by continued loan repricing benefits and decline in the second half. We are looking for total operating expenses to increase less than 10%. Salary and benefit expense will increase due to hiring in the second half of 2022. Additionally, we expect marketing to be above our full year 2022 level.

我們預計淨息差將略高於 2022 年全年水平。更具體地說，我們預計上半年的 NIM 將高於第四季度的水平，這是由於持續的貸款重新定價優勢和下半年的下降。我們希望總運營費用增長不超過 10%。由於 2022 年下半年的招聘，工資和福利費用將增加。此外，我們預計營銷將高於 2022 年全年水平。

We expect net charge-offs will average between 3.5% and 3.9% for the full year. The low end of the range is more in line with our base case, while the high end is more consistent with a weaker employment scenario.

我們預計全年淨註銷平均在 3.5% 至 3.9% 之間。該範圍的低端更符合我們的基本情況，而高端則更符合較弱的就業情景。

Lastly, we have $2.8 billion of remaining capacity under the $4.2 billion share repurchase program that expires in June of this year. We expect to repurchase around $2.2 billion of shares in the first half of 2023. We'll provide an update on future share repurchase authorizations after we complete our stress testing process and review recommendations with our Board.

最後，根據將於今年 6 月到期的 42 億美元股票回購計劃，我們還有 28 億美元的剩餘產能。我們預計將在 2023 年上半年回購約 22 億美元的股票。在完成壓力測試流程並與董事會審查建議後，我們將提供有關未來股票回購授權的最新信息。

In summary, receivable growth continued to benefit from new account acquisition, payment rate moderation and positive sales. NIM continues to benefit from prime rate increases with funding costs consistent with expectations and credit is performing in line with our approach through-the-cycle underwriting process and conservative credit management. Our perspectives for 2023 reflect our focus on advancing our strategic priorities generating high returns and capital, while remaining disciplined in our credit and expense management.

總之，應收賬款增長繼續受益於新客戶收購、支付率放緩和積極的銷售。 NIM 繼續受益於最優惠利率的上漲，融資成本與預期一致，信貸表現符合我們的全週期承銷流程和保守信貸管理方法。我們對 2023 年的展望反映了我們專注於推進我們的戰略優先事項以產生高回報和資本，同時在我們的信貸和費用管理方面保持紀律。

With that, I'll turn the call back over to our operator to open the line for Q&A.

有了這個，我會把電話轉回給我們的接線員打開問答線。

(Operator Instructions) We'll take our first question from Moshe Orenbuch with Credit Suisse.

（操作員說明）我們將從瑞士信貸的 Moshe Orenbuch 那裡回答我們的第一個問題。

Great. And John, thanks for kind of outlining the parameters of the range of expected credit loss. But could you talk a little bit about the past kind of from here to getting to the 3.5%? Like what either has to happen that's bad or not happen, that's good. And at what points along that way, would you know whether that 3.5% base case is too high or too low?

偉大的。約翰，感謝您概述了預期信用損失範圍的參數。但是你能談談過去從這裡到 3.5% 的情況嗎？就像必鬚髮生的壞事或不發生的事一樣，那很好。在這條路上的什麼時候，你知道 3.5% 的基本情況是太高還是太低？

Yes. Great. Yes. Thanks for the question, Moshe. So the range is some unlocked, right? 3.5% to 3.9% for '23. And -- we certainly have a great deal of visibility through the first 6 months of the year through a roll rate methodology. Post 6 months, so in the second half of the year, we use our analytical models which anticipate a number of different possible outcomes but used as historical data that's been tested significantly to make a projection of what we expect to happen.

是的。偉大的。是的。謝謝你的問題，摩西。所以範圍是一些解鎖，對吧？ 23 年 3.5% 到 3.9%。而且 - 通過滾動率方法，我們在今年前 6 個月當然有很大的可見性。 6 個月後，所以在下半年，我們使用我們的分析模型來預測許多不同的可能結果，但用作經過重大測試的歷史數據，以預測我們期望發生的事情。

So as we get through the first quarter, we'll be able to see what's happening with our roll rates in terms of, is it roll to 1 bucket and a roll to 2 bucket, consistent with our expectations on the base case on the reserve. Beyond that, we'll certainly look at the macro environment and what's happening with unemployment levels and the overall job market. That will give us some perspective.

因此，當我們度過第一季度時，我們將能夠看到我們的滾動率發生了什麼，它是滾動到 1 個桶還是滾動到 2 個桶，這與我們對儲備基本情況的預期一致.除此之外，我們當然會關注宏觀環境以及失業率和整個就業市場的情況。這會給我們一些觀點。

And then an important component of this, and I know there was some questions in terms of the step-up from where we ended '22 to where we're projecting '23. We have fairly significant vintages that are going through the normal seasoning process right now. So for example, our end-of-period card portfolio, so last year, 12/31 to this year, 12/31, increased by $15.7 billion.

然後是其中的一個重要組成部分，我知道在從 22 年結束到 23 年計劃的升級方面存在一些問題。我們現在有相當重要的年份正在經歷正常的調味過程。例如，我們的期末卡組合，從去年 12/31 到今年 12/31，增加了 157 億美元。

And if you think about kind of a maturity cycle of a credit card, typically within the first year to 2 years, you hit peak losses. So that is some of what we're expecting here, and therefore, the guidance that we've provided. We do expect that in a stable macroeconomic environment, in the second half of the year, we should see this slope of the curve begin to bend down a little bit with perhaps, top losses coming through in '24 and then returning down.

而且，如果您考慮信用卡的某種到期週期，通常在第一年到兩年內，您就會遇到最大損失。這就是我們在這裡的一些期望，因此，我們提供了指導。我們確實預計，在穩定的宏觀經濟環境下，在今年下半年，我們應該會看到曲線的斜率開始向下彎曲一點，也許在 24 年出現最高損失，然後又回落。

So overall, what we're seeing here is just a strong portfolio, very significant vintages that came through in '21 and '22 that are seasoning at levels that were -- that are completely within our expectation of total return thresholds.

所以總的來說，我們在這裡看到的只是一個強大的投資組合，在 21 年和 22 年出現的非常重要的年份，它們的調味水平完全在我們對總回報門檻的預期之內。

And then we'll see the overall portfolio normalized. So hopefully, that provides some clarity on both the trajectory as well as what we're seeing in the portfolio.

然後我們將看到整體投資組合正常化。因此，希望這能為軌跡以及我們在投資組合中看到的內容提供一些清晰度。

Perfect. And just as a follow-up, the reserve rate was down. You mentioned that was largely a result of transactor balances. But I guess, even with that, it wasn't up. And so when you think about that, kind of how do you -- I mean, how should we think -- it doesn't feel like you're anticipating a deteriorating environment if you're keeping your reserve certainly no worse than flat. And how do we think about that going through '23 as well?

完美的。作為後續行動，準備金率下降了。你提到這主要是交易者余額的結果。但我想，即便如此，它也沒有起來。因此，當您考慮到這一點時，您是如何——我的意思是，我們應該如何思考——如果您保持儲備肯定不比持平更糟，那麼您不會覺得您在預期環境會惡化。我們如何看待 23 年的情況？

Yes, great, great, question. And they're connected. So happy to cover them in the same set. So CECL reflects life of loan losses as we all know, right? And so what drives that is the portfolio performance and the -- our view of the macroeconomic environment today and going forward. And we haven't had any substantial changes to the macroeconomic environment. And essentially, the portfolio is performing within our expected ranges of outcomes.

是的，很好，很好，問題。他們是相連的。很高興將它們放在同一組中。所以 CECL 反映了眾所周知的貸款損失壽命，對嗎？因此，推動這一點的是投資組合的表現以及我們對當今和未來宏觀經濟環境的看法。而且我們的宏觀經濟環境沒有任何實質性的變化。從本質上講，投資組合的表現在我們預期的結果範圍內。

So as we look at the fourth quarter receivable balances in the aggregate, and the portfolio performance, a stable macro, we felt most appropriate reserve levels would be fairly consistent with what we did in the third quarter. And essentially, without taking you through a ton of detail that teams spend weeks and weeks working through, that's essentially how we arrived at the answer.

因此，當我們查看第四季度的總體應收賬款餘額和投資組合表現時，一個穩定的宏觀，我們認為最合適的準備金水平將與我們在第三季度所做的相當一致。從本質上講，無需帶您了解團隊花費數周和數週工作的大量細節，這就是我們得出答案的基本方式。

Our next question will come from Sanjay Sakhrani with KBW.

我們的下一個問題將來自 KBW 的 Sanjay Sakhrani。

Maybe just a follow-up question to the credit questions Moshe asked. John, you talked about the seasoning. Is there any way to parse apart the impact of seasoning in your range versus the actual degradation as a result of just the deteriorating delinquencies on a base case?

也許只是 Moshe 提出的信用問題的後續問題。約翰，你談到了調味料。有沒有什麼方法可以將調味料在您的範圍內的影響與由於基本情況下的拖欠率惡化而導致的實際退化分開？

And then you mentioned sort of the slope of the curve decelerates, I think you said in the second half, but just want to make sure to understand sort of how the seasoning will impact us for the next 2 years. Does it still weigh in on you in the first half of 2024?

然後你提到了某種曲線的斜率減速，我想你在下半年說過，但只是想確保了解調味料將如何影響我們未來 2 年。在 2024 年上半年，它是否仍然影響您？

Yes. So in terms of the impact of the vintages, I explicitly called out the card vintage in 2022, so the $15.7 billion to give the folks that are listening here, a place to anchor on in terms of thinking about the vintage and then you can run out peak losses for our portfolio in terms of what typically happens after a significant vintage and in a stable macro. So that should help you at least in terms of the thinking in terms of the vintage.

是的。所以就年份的影響而言，我明確指出 2022 年的卡片年份，所以 157 億美元給在這裡聽的人一個思考年份的地方，然後你可以運行根據在一個重要的年份之後和一個穩定的宏觀環境中通常發生的情況，我們的投資組合的峰值損失。所以這至少應該能幫助你思考年份。

As we think about this year, we gave that range of 3.5% to 3.9% on the loan base -- on the average loan base. So you should think about the ultimate kind of range here. It will depend first on the macro. Second, we'll continue to give updates in each of the quarters in terms of what we're seeing. But ultimately, we expect this vintage will mature in 2024. And then we should see in a stable macro, the curve not only slope bending, but actually inverting slightly.

正如我們今年所考慮的那樣，我們在貸款基礎上給出了 3.5% 到 3.9% 的範圍——平均貸款基礎。所以你應該在這裡考慮最終的範圍。這將首先取決於宏。其次，我們將繼續根據我們所看到的情況在每個季度提供更新。但最終，我們預計這個年份將在 2024 年成熟。然後我們應該看到在一個穩定的宏觀環境中，曲線不僅傾斜彎曲，而且實際上略有反轉。

Okay. Follow-up question on loan growth. Obviously, you mentioned the strong growth driving the seasoning, but you guys are still expecting double-digit growth in the face of maybe a tougher economic backdrop. What gives you the comfort here? Maybe Roger, speaking to the growth in the past, and I know every cycle takes on a different complexion. What are you guys looking at that makes you comfortable to grow here? Because that's a question I get quite a bit from investors.

好的。關於貸款增長的後續問題。顯然，你提到了推動調味料的強勁增長，但面對可能更艱難的經濟背景，你們仍然期待兩位數的增長。是什麼讓你在這裡感到舒適？也許羅傑，談到過去的增長，我知道每個週期都會呈現不同的面貌。你們在看什麼讓你在這裡成長很舒服？因為這是我從投資者那裡得到的一個問題。

Yes. Good question, Sanjay. I think you've seen us operate this business through multiple cycles and the disciplined approach we take both in good times as well as in bad. And frequently, the accounts you put on during a challenging economic time, perform extraordinarily well, and you can see very good cost per account as competitors pull back.

是的。好問題，桑傑。我想你已經看到我們通過多個週期來經營這項業務，以及我們在順境和逆境中都採取的有紀律的方法。通常情況下，您在充滿挑戰的經濟時期開設的賬戶表現非常出色，並且隨著競爭對手的撤退，您可以看到非常好的每個賬戶成本。

So we have been pretty clear at that starting in the back half of last year, we started tightening credit standards, and you can expect us to continue to look at that and adjust according to economic conditions, both for new accounts as well as the portfolio.

所以我們很清楚，從去年下半年開始，我們開始收緊信貸標準，你可以期待我們繼續關注這一點，並根據經濟狀況進行調整，包括新賬戶和投資組合.

Nevertheless, we're seeing great returns on the marketing investments we're putting out there. And so that's what gives us the confidence to keep investing in growth.

儘管如此，我們看到了我們在那裡投入的營銷投資的豐厚回報。這就是讓我們有信心繼續投資於增長的原因。

Our next question comes from John Hecht with Jefferies.

我們的下一個問題來自 Jefferies 的 John Hecht。

And not to beat the dead horse, but maybe just one more question on the kind of the provisioning and the credit. .

並不是為了打敗死馬，而是可能只是關於供應和信貸類型的另一個問題。 .

John, I think you kind of detailed the unemployment assumptions. I think they were kind of in the 4.5% to 6% range, with maybe somewhere making the 5% range, kind of the middle of the fairway.

約翰，我認為你詳細介紹了失業假設。我認為它們在 4.5% 到 6% 的範圍內，可能在 5% 的範圍內，有點像球道的中間。

Just maybe can you tell us what's the sensitivity for the either the charge-offs or the [ALL] let's say unemployment moves to level like 100 basis points higher than that.

也許你能告訴我們沖銷或 [ALL] 的敏感性是什麼，假設失業率上升到比這高 100 個基點的水平。

Yes. So in our kind of primary case here, we assumed a 100 basis points increase in unemployment. Now that was specific to our charge-off forecast. In terms of kind of reserve levels, we actually used a composite of multiple scenarios. The more heavily weighted scenario reflected a loss rate of 4.5% and then going up all the way to 6%.

是的。因此，在我們這裡的主要案例中，我們假設失業率增加 100 個基點。現在，這是特定於我們的沖銷預測。在儲備水平方面，我們實際上使用了多種場景的組合。權重更高的情景反映了 4.5% 的損失率，然後一路上升到 6%。

So I'm feeling actually like we're down the middle here in terms of appropriateness in terms of overall reserve levels. And more specificity in terms of sensitivity. I don't think that would be a service given if we're seeing unemployment kind of creep up in that sort of matter or that sort of quantum. That would indicate that the macro environment has changed. Then we have to change our view on that, which could change our perspectives on life of loan losses.

所以我覺得實際上我們在整體儲備水平的適當性方面處於中間位置。在敏感性方面更具特異性。如果我們看到失業率在那種事情或那種量程中逐漸上升，我認為這不會是一項服務。那將表明宏觀環境已經發生變化。然後我們必須改變我們對此的看法，這可能會改變我們對貸款損失期限的看法。

Okay. That's helpful. And then you gave annual guidance with NIM, and it sounds like maybe an elevated NIM in the first part of the year coming down second, what are the drivers of that with respect to the yield and the cost of capital?

好的。這很有幫助。然後你給出了 NIM 的年度指導，聽起來 NIM 在今年上半年可能會有所上升，但在收益率和資本成本方面的驅動因素是什麼？

Yes. Yes. So I'm going to run through the primary drivers. So first would be the Fed rate changes in the second half of '22 as well as what we've anticipated either 2 or 3 increases in 2023. .

是的。是的。因此，我將介紹主要驅動程序。因此，首先是美聯儲在 22 年下半年的利率變化，以及我們預期的 2023 年加息 2 次或 3 次。

Second impact is the yield on our investments, which is improving with the increase in the rate environment. And then the third piece has been some pricing actions we took in the consumer banking products. So think about the noncard products.

第二個影響是我們投資的收益率，隨著利率環境的提高，收益率正在提高。然後第三部分是我們在消費者銀行產品中採取的一些定價行動。所以想想非卡片產品。

So offsetting that would be kind of the cost of funding. So DTC and external funding costs have increased. And then we're also anticipating an impact from credit, all of which the net of those gives us a high level of confidence that certainly, we're going to see peak NIM in the first quarter and then stepping down from there through 2023.

因此，抵消這將是一種資金成本。因此 DTC 和外部融資成本增加了。然後我們還預計信貸會產生影響，所有這些因素的淨值給了我們高度的信心，我們肯定會在第一季度看到 NIM 峰值，然後從那裡下降到 2023 年。

Our next question comes from Mark DeVries with Barclays.

我們的下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的 Mark DeVries。

I have one more credit question for you. I know you don't generally give out guidance more than 1 year out, but I think some of the commentary around the charge-off guidance has some implications for 2024. I just wanted to try and clarify.

我還有一個信用問題要問你。我知道您通常不會在超過 1 年的時間內給出指導，但我認為圍繞沖銷指導的一些評論對 2024 年有一些影響。我只是想嘗試澄清一下。

I mean if you look at the guidance range, it seems to imply you kind of exit 2023 at a charge-off rate at 4% to 4.5%. I think John, you indicated 2024 is kind of a peak year? Should we expect -- is it reasonable to assume that, that's implying kind of a charge-off rate north of 4% for 2024?

我的意思是，如果您查看指導範圍，這似乎意味著您將以 4% 至 4.5% 的沖銷率退出 2023 年。我想約翰，你表示 2024 年是高峰年？我們是否應該預期——假設這意味著 2024 年的沖銷率高於 4% 是否合理？

Yes. So you're right on your call here. We gave a range for 2023 of 3.5% to 3.9%. I talked about the curve and what we think will happen to the curve and the slope of that. So Mark, as a matter of prudence, I think that's probably as far as I'm going to go here.

是的。所以你在這裡隨叫隨到。我們給出了 2023 年 3.5% 至 3.9% 的範圍。我談到了曲線以及我們認為曲線和斜率會發生什麼。因此，馬克，出於謹慎考慮，我認為這可能就是我要到這裡的程度。

Our next question comes from Betsy Graseck with Morgan Stanley.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的 Betsy Graseck。

Maybe a slightly different way to address this question is, you perhaps could give us some color on where you have seen your fully seasoned vintages peak in terms of net charge-off rates and around what kind of months within the seasoning path that happens in a range of months, that would be helpful to understand.

也許解決這個問題的一個稍微不同的方法是，你或許可以給我們一些顏色，說明你看到你的完全調味年份在淨沖銷率方面達到頂峰的地方，以及在調味路徑中發生的月份月的範圍，這將有助於理解。

Yes. So typically, we'll see it around 18 months. And it varies based on credit quality. So the highest credit quality. So I think FICO would typically peak a little later. And then the weaker, I'll say, the weaker credits typically peak a little bit earlier. But on an average, think, about 18 months or so.

是的。所以通常情況下，我們會在 18 個月左右看到它。它因信用質量而異。所以信用質量最高。所以我認為 FICO 通常會在稍後達到頂峰。然後是較弱的，我會說，較弱的信用通常會更早達到頂峰。但平均而言，想想，大約 18 個月左右。

And the level that you've been seeing, it would be helpful to understand how historically, the vintages that you underwrite to are trajecting in terms of peak. And maybe if you could comp 2022 vintage in 2021, what you're seeing there would be helpful.

以及你所看到的水平，這將有助於了解歷史上你所承保的年份在峰值方面的軌跡。也許如果你能在 2021 年比較 2022 年的年份，你在那裡看到的會有所幫助。

Yes. So -- the first part of that answer would be, it would depend on the vintage. So if you go back to our 2020 vintage and remember, there's COVID, right, we were locked down. We ceased underwriting kind of the near prime and lower prime and concentrated on upper prime. That vintage will season at a peak loss level below what Discover historically has done.

是的。所以——答案的第一部分是，這取決於年份。因此，如果您回到我們的 2020 年份並記住，有 COVID，對，我們被封鎖了。我們停止承銷近優質和低優質，而專注於高優質。該年份的損失將低於 Discover 歷史上的損失水平。

If you look at '21, '22, we were essentially back to an underwriting standard consistent with history. And you can use that information to get some level of comfort around what can be expected in '24 on this vintage.

如果你看看 21 年、22 年，我們基本上回到了與歷史一致的承保標準。您可以使用這些信息來了解 24 世紀這個年份的預期情況。

Okay. Because you're basically saying '22 is a normal -- is exhibiting behavior that is more normal pre-COVID type of vintages?

好的。因為你基本上是在說 22 歲是正常的——是否表現出更正常的 COVID 前類型的年份行為？

It is. Yes. Yes. The one difference that I think is important for folks to codify in their minds is that we're coming off an abnormally low base, right? So the entire portfolio is normalizing. We've talked about that consistently actually, since the beginning of last year that we thought the portfolio was normalizing. And what you're seeing here in the 2023 guidance is, essentially the portfolio normalizing.

這是。是的。是的。我認為對人們來說很重要的一個區別是，我們的基數異常低，對吧？所以整個投資組合正在正常化。實際上，自去年年初以來，我們一直在談論這個問題，我們認為投資組合正在正常化。你在 2023 年指南中看到的基本上是投資組合正常化。

If the current reserve ratio level is consistent with this normalization, whereby, peak losses hit in '24?

如果當前的準備金率水平與這種正常化一致，那麼，24 年虧損達到頂峰？

Yes. Otherwise, my controller would have taken exception to our reserve process.

是的。否則，我的控制者就會對我們的保留流程採取例外措施。

Right. And this is -- I know we're talking about card, but is this the same kind of expectation across the other asset classes as well, student, personal?

正確的。這是——我知道我們在談論信用卡，但這是否與其他資產類別、學生、個人的期望相同？

Yes. Although, what we're seeing in personal loans is, again, loss rates below historical norms. Payment rate is beginning to normalize. And we have talked about the fact that we perhaps overcorrected on that product in terms of underwriting, in terms of the pullback. We pulled back significantly. So I expect some seasoning and normalization there. But again, we're very, very confident about the loss performance of that product. .

是的。雖然，我們在個人貸款中看到的損失率再次低於歷史標準。支付率開始正常化。我們已經討論過這樣一個事實，即我們可能在承保和回調方面對該產品進行了過度糾正。我們大幅撤退。所以我希望那裡有一些調味和標準化。但同樣，我們對該產品的損耗性能非常、非常有信心。 .

We understand where it is on the payment priorities for folks. So we're going to be mindful of the economy on that. And student loans, yes, that's normalizing. We did have and likely we'll have a little bit of impact when we see the full impact of the student debtors on the government programs having to pay back loans. But it's underwritten to a high standard, 80-plus percent have co-signers. So we feel very comfortable about that product as well.

我們了解人們支付優先事項的位置。因此，我們將在這方面注意經濟。學生貸款，是的，這正在正常化。當我們看到學生債務人對必須償還貸款的政府計劃的全面影響時，我們確實已經並且可能會產生一點影響。但它的承保標準很高，80% 以上都有共同簽署人。因此，我們對該產品也感到非常滿意。

Our next question comes from Rick Shane of JPMorgan.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Rick Shane。

Look, this is an interesting milestone where the reserve rate is 658 basis points. It basically is apples-to-apples seasonality versus CECL day 1 and up 50 basis points. I'm curious when we think about your economic outlook and how you build a CECL reserve, where you compared to CECL day 1 on a like-for-like basis, would you build the same allowance? Or have you made adjustments and then compare your economic outlooks at each of those points in time, please?

看，這是一個有趣的里程碑，準備金率為 658 個基點。它基本上是蘋果對蘋果的季節性與 CECL 第 1 天相比，上漲 50 個基點。當我們考慮您的經濟前景以及您如何建立 CECL 儲備時，我很好奇，您在同類基礎上與 CECL 第 1 天進行比較，您會建立相同的津貼嗎？還是您進行了調整，然後比較了每個時間點的經濟前景？

Yes. So good question, Rick. So we've referenced CECL day 1 in the past, but I'd like to remind folks, day 1 was first time we rolled this new standard out. We were using new models. They've been tested extensively. And the macros were late cycle with higher unemployment levels.

是的。問得好，瑞克。所以我們在過去引用了 CECL 第 1 天，但我想提醒大家，第 1 天是我們第一次推出這個新標準。我們正在使用新模型。它們已經過廣泛測試。宏觀經濟周期較晚，失業率較高。

So as we look at kind of where we are today or as of the fourth quarter, right, 6.58 in terms of total loss reserve rate. That seems appropriate based on kind of what we're seeing in the macros and how the portfolio is performing. So do we specifically reference day 1 only from the standpoint of where it was back on January 1, 2020, to where it is today. But we don't use that as a decision point, whatsoever.

因此，當我們看一下我們今天或截至第四季度的情況時，就總損失準備金率而言，正確的是 6.58。根據我們在宏觀上看到的情況以及投資組合的表現，這似乎是合適的。那麼，我們是否僅從 2020 年 1 月 1 日回到今天的位置的角度專門提及第 1 天。但無論如何，我們不會將其用作決策點。

John, understood. I'm more curious that if you like, were you've described that the models have evolved. And I think that, that's fair, and I think everybody appreciates that. What I'm asking is, on a like-for-like basis, would -- do you think that reserve rates are lower today using the same assumptions as you refine them versus CECL day 1?

約翰，明白了。我更好奇，如果你願意，你是否描述過模型已經進化。我認為這很公平，我認為每個人都會對此表示讚賞。我要問的是，在類似的基礎上，您是否認為今天使用與 CECL 第一天相同的假設來改進準備金率？

Yes. No. No. They're not lower. We're looking at the portfolio performance. It's performed extraordinarily well. We're seeing a bit of seasoning now, as you would expect in this type of product. And the macros are contemplating a minimum level of increase in unemployment of at least 0.5% and more likely 1%. So what you're seeing here is a CECL reserve for the quarter that reflects those macros.

是的。不，不，它們並不低。我們正在研究投資組合的表現。它的表現非常出色。正如您在此類產品中所期望的那樣，我們現在看到了一些調味料。宏觀經濟正在考慮將失業率至少增加 0.5%，更有可能增加 1%。所以你在這裡看到的是反映這些宏的季度 CECL 儲備。

Our next question comes from Bob Napoli with William Blair.

我們的下一個問題來自 Bob Napoli 和 William Blair。

Many -- some commentary, Roger, on the competitive environment for rewards. I mean, you're seeing very strong growth out of a number of players in the industry, including yourselves. Can you -- are you seeing more competition? Where are you seeing more competition, more people getting more aggressive, if you would?

許多——羅傑，一些關於獎勵競爭環境的評論。我的意思是，您看到該行業的許多參與者（包括您自己）都取得了非常強勁的增長。你能——你看到更多的競爭嗎？如果你願意的話，你在哪裡看到更多的競爭，更多的人變得更具侵略性？

Yes. Thanks, Bob. It remains, I would say, intensely competitive. But as you've seen from the growth and especially, the performance in new accounts, our value proposition is competing well. And again, I want to give credit to some of the advancements on the analytics that let us sort of personalize the marketing messages across different channels.

是的。謝謝，鮑勃。我想說，它仍然具有激烈的競爭性。但正如您從增長中看到的那樣，尤其是新客戶的表現，我們的價值主張具有競爭力。再一次，我想讚揚分析方面的一些進步，這些進步讓我們能夠跨不同渠道個性化營銷信息。

I guess where competition has lightened a bit is in the personal loan space. I think there were a lot of nonbank funded folks there who may have some challenges on the other side of the balance sheet. And obviously, one big player who had been active is pulling out.

我想競爭有所減輕的地方是個人貸款領域。我認為那裡有很多非銀行資助的人，他們可能在資產負債表的另一邊面臨一些挑戰。很明顯，一位活躍的大玩家正在退出。

On the deposit side, I would see there, I think you're starting to see the gap between the direct banks, the branch banks really get wide enough that you're seeing flows to the direct system, right? It's now at 3.3% for savings rate. It's now a lot more worth your money. So again, really excited about how our products are competing across every segment. And so that's part of why we're optimistic going into 2023.

在存款方面，我會看到那裡，我認為你開始看到直接銀行之間的差距，分支銀行真的足夠寬，你看到資金流向直接系統，對吧？現在的儲蓄率為 3.3%。現在它更值得你花錢了。因此，再次對我們的產品如何在各個細分市場競爭感到非常興奮。這就是為什麼我們對 2023 年持樂觀態度的部分原因。

What new products, I mean your Cashback Debit is something that you've talked about? What new products are you most excited about?

什麼新產品，我的意思是你的現金返還借記是你談論過的東西？您最感興趣的新產品是什麼？

You're highlighting probably the big launch for next year, which will be the relaunch of Cashback Debit. And we hope to be doing some mass-market advertising of that.

你可能會強調明年的重大發布，這將是現金返還借記卡的重新發布。我們希望為此做一些大眾市場廣告。

Beyond that, I really believe we have the right product set. We're seeing great demand, for example, on the home equity side, given how rates have moved and the lack of cash-out refi.

除此之外，我真的相信我們擁有合適的產品集。考慮到利率的變化和缺乏現金再融資，我們看到了巨大的需求，例如，在房屋淨值方面。

So I think part of how we keep our costs as low as they are, is a very simple, lean, operating model. So I wouldn't expect anything other than the relaunch of the Cashback Debit and we'll put a lot of weight behind that.

因此，我認為我們如何將成本保持在最低水平的部分原因是一種非常簡單、精益的運營模式。因此，除了重新啟動現金返還借記之外，我不會期待任何其他事情，我們會在這方面給予很大的重視。

Our next question comes from John Pancari with Evercore ISI.

我們的下一個問題來自 Evercore ISI 的 John Pancari。

Back to the credit topic. Anything about the charge-off guidance that baked into your guidance. That is a surprise at all in terms of what you're observing. I know you talked about the seasoning and the vintages and it sounds like there's nothing there that really surprised you.

回到信用話題。關於融入您的指南的沖銷指南的任何內容。就您所觀察到的情況而言，這完全是一個驚喜。我知道你談到了調味料和年份，聽起來沒有什麼讓你真正感到驚訝的。

But I'm wondering, anything about the credit migration within the vintages, within the portfolio in the past dues [and important] customer behavior that surprised you that led to the increase in the charge-off guidance that seems to be well above where the Street was expecting?

但我想知道，任何關於年份內的信貸遷移，在過去會費的投資組合中 [以及重要的] 客戶行為讓你感到驚訝，導致沖銷指導的增加似乎遠高於街道期待？

Yes. Thanks, John. Actually, no surprises in the portfolio performance whatsoever. And I want to reiterate that. And that's essentially why the reserve rate is flat, right? So they are connected. So what that says is that charge-off guidance was essentially contemplated in the reserving of life of loan losses. So we feel very good about that and there is consistency.

是的。謝謝，約翰。實際上，投資組合的表現並不令人意外。我想重申這一點。這基本上就是準備金率持平的原因，對吧？所以他們是有聯繫的。所以這就是說，沖銷指導基本上是在貸款損失期限的準備金中考慮的。所以我們對此感覺非常好，並且有一致性。

I did talk about in my prepared remarks that the lowest end of the credit spectrum that we have in our portfolio. So some near-prime and some folks without FICO scores or those who fell below 660 are certainly feeling the impact from inflation. But internally, we completely anticipated that we had run some analysis on inflation shocks and what it would do to some of the card members. And it's performing essentially where we thought it would come out. So I'm actually quite pleased about that.

我在準備好的發言中確實談到了我們投資組合中信用範圍的最低端。因此，一些接近黃金的人和一些沒有 FICO 分數或低於 660 的人肯定會感受到通貨膨脹的影響。但在內部，我們完全預料到我們已經對通貨膨脹衝擊及其對某些持卡人的影響進行了一些分析。它的表現基本上在我們認為會出現的地方。所以我對此感到非常高興。

The other important thing that I want to make sure that the audience here is, I think what 2022 did for us is it increased the earnings power of the firm. And there's a lot of focus from these questions on kind of the charge-off and peak charge-offs, but we've put on good assets consistent with what we've done historically. So loans increased $18 billion. So there's going to be some seasoning, but overall, the earnings power of the firm has increased as a result of great execution by our teams.

我想確保這裡的聽眾的另一件重要事情是，我認為 2022 年為我們所做的是它增加了公司的盈利能力。這些問題有很多關注點是沖銷和高峰沖銷，但我們已經投入了與我們歷史上所做的一致的優質資產。因此貸款增加了 180 億美元。所以會有一些調味料，但總的來說，由於我們團隊的出色執行力，公司的盈利能力有所提高。

Okay. That's helpful. And then, again, just -- I know this gets to CECL and the whole spirit of it. But given your commentary and that you just indicated reserve flat, so if the macro outlook progresses within your scenarios and the loss migration progresses as you described here into 2024 of this 2022 vintage and no other surprises elsewhere. Then would you expect accordingly that the reserve at 660 would generally remain around that level in that case? Or could there be incremental upside to the reserve, assuming that macro backdrop remains as they're within the scenario bands.

好的。這很有幫助。然後，再一次，只是——我知道這涉及到 CECL 及其整個精神。但是考慮到你的評論並且你只是表示儲備持平，所以如果宏觀前景在你的情景中取得進展並且損失遷移按照你在這裡描述的那樣進展到這個 2022 年份的 2024 年並且其他地方沒有其他意外。那麼在這種情況下，您是否會相應地預計 660 的儲備金通常會保持在該水平附近？或者，如果宏觀背景保持在情景範圍內，儲備金是否會增加上行空間。

Yes. So there's -- I appreciate the question. A lot of assumptions in there. But as you laid out, I would expect the overall reserve rates to be relatively close to kind of where they are today.

是的。所以有 - 我很欣賞這個問題。裡面有很多假設。但正如你所說，我希望整體準備金率相對接近今天的水平。

Our next question comes from Bill Carcache with Wolfe Research.

我們的下一個問題來自 Wolfe Research 的 Bill Carcache。

First, I wanted to ask if you could give us a sense of what kind of delinquency rates you'd expect based on that 3.5% to 3.9% NCO rate outlook?

首先，我想問您是否可以讓我們了解根據 3.5% 至 3.9% 的 NCO 利率前景，您預計會有什麼樣的拖欠率？

Yes. I mean we don't typically forecast the delinquency rates. You would -- what I suggest to do is take a look at the trust data and the relative difference between the trust data historically, and where the total company is coming out. That will give some insights.

是的。我的意思是我們通常不會預測拖欠率。你會 - 我建議做的是看一下信任數據和歷史上信任數據之間的相對差異，以及整個公司的發展方向。這將提供一些見解。

And then also, the trends in delinquencies typically are pretty consistent, right? You can go point to point to point. And then I've given some views in terms of where we see the slope starting to flatten and then perhaps, bend. So I'd use that information in order to -- if you're interested in calculating overall delinquency rates in turn.

然後，拖欠的趨勢通常是非常一致的，對吧？你可以點對點。然後我就我們看到斜坡開始變平然後可能彎曲的地方給出了一些觀點。因此，如果您有興趣依次計算總體拖欠率，我會使用這些信息來進行。

Okay. That's helpful. I guess just the spirit of the question was, there isn't anything unique happening with that increase in charge-offs that would lead to a breakdown between the historical relationship that exists between delinquencies and charge-offs. In other words, the sharp increase that you're expecting in delinquencies -- or sorry, in charge-offs, it would be reasonable to expect sort of a commensurate sharp increase in delinquencies as the data starts to come through?

好的。這很有幫助。我想問題的本質是，沖銷的增加並沒有發生任何獨特的事情，這會導致拖欠和沖銷之間存在的歷史關係破裂。換句話說，您預計拖欠率會急劇增加——或者抱歉，在沖銷中，隨著數據開始出現，預計拖欠率會相應急劇增加是合理的嗎？

Yes, there's obviously a relationship there, certainly. Although, remember, you should have -- you should take into account the kind of the vintage impact and what I'll say normal seasoning, right? So there's $18 billion of incremental loans. Some of those are just going to perform extremely well and a small percentage will season out as we typically see. So I would consider that in the analysis, but nothing -- there should be no substantial break.

是的，那裡顯然有關係，當然。雖然，請記住，你應該——你應該考慮到年份影響的類型以及我所說的正常調味料，對吧？所以有 180 億美元的增量貸款。其中一些會表現得非常好，而一小部分會像我們通常看到的那樣過時。所以我會在分析中考慮這一點，但什麼都不考慮——不應該有實質性的中斷。

Okay. And my follow-up is, if I may, I might have missed this. But why did an increase in early-stage delinquencies drive higher credit card NCO rates this quarter. Is my initial thought was that, early stage delinquencies would have to flow through the various delinquency buckets before charging off. So I wasn't following how that early stage increase this quarter impacted NCOs? Just a clarification there would be great.

好的。我的後續行動是，如果可以的話，我可能錯過了這個。但為什麼本季度早期拖欠率的增加推動了更高的信用卡 NCO 利率。我最初的想法是，早期的拖欠款必須經過各種拖欠款桶才能清算。所以我沒有關注本季度早期階段的增長如何影響 NCO？只是澄清一下就好了。

Yes. Yes. Well, there's a couple of different components, right? There is -- there's a bankruptcy bucket. There's a nonbankruptcy bucket that just flows through the buckets. And then there's also the recovery element. So if you put those 3 together, sometimes the bankruptcy bucket is, it will pop in a particular quarter, depending on flow of work in the court system. And the nonbankruptcy just flows quarter-over-quarter.

是的。是的。好吧，有幾個不同的組件，對嗎？有—有一個破產桶。有一個非破產桶，它只是流過桶。然後還有恢復元素。因此，如果您將這 3 個放在一起，有時破產桶會在特定季度彈出，具體取決於法院系統的工作流程。而且非破產只是逐季流動。

So I would certainly look at this quarter, prior quarter, and what comes out in the first quarter. And that will give you the insights you're looking for.

因此，我肯定會關注本季度、上一季度以及第一季度的結果。這將為您提供您正在尋找的見解。

Our next question comes from Mihir Bhatia with Bank of America.

我們的下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Mihir Bhatia。

I wanted to just talk a little bit more about credit. So specifically, I think you mentioned a little bit of mild deterioration in credit among the lower bands. Does your guidance contemplate that stress spreading to your prime core revolver portfolio at all as unemployment increases. I guess said differently, what I'm trying to understand is, you think we go from credit formalization to deterioration for DFS overall? Or is it just normalization with just the vintage seasoning impacts that we've been talking about?

我想多談談信用。所以具體來說，我認為你提到了低端信用的輕微惡化。您的指導是否考慮到隨著失業率的增加，壓力會完全擴散到您的主要核心左輪手槍投資組合。我想換句話說，我想了解的是，您認為我們從信用正規化到整體 DFS 惡化？或者它只是我們一直在談論的老式調味影響的正常化？

Yes. Thank you. It's the latter. It is normalization and seasoning, which we contemplated fully in both our kind of origination strategy, our reserving strategy and obviously in the guidance we're providing.

是的。謝謝你。是後者。這是規範化和調味，我們在我們的起源策略、我們的儲備策略以及顯然在我們提供的指導中都充分考慮了這一點。

Yes. And maybe just to clarify, the lowest income segments, which are a pretty small portion of our base are the ones that get additional pressure from inflation, right? By and large, a prime book can adjust. They trade down, they readjust their pattern. So I think John was referring to incremental stress there. But there's no reason to believe that the vast majority of our portfolio will be driven by the traditional drivers of losses, which is charge-offs -- I'm sorry, which is unemployment.

是的。也許只是為了澄清，最低收入群體，也就是我們基數中很小的一部分，是那些從通貨膨脹中承受額外壓力的群體，對吧？總的來說，一本優質的書是可以調整的。他們降價交易，他們重新調整他們的模式。所以我認為約翰指的是那裡的增量壓力。但沒有理由相信我們的絕大多數投資組合將由傳統的損失驅動因素驅動，即沖銷——對不起，這是失業。

Got it. And then I did want to offer maybe a little bit of a big picture question, just longer term. I think -- we appreciate that you have added a lot of business and increase the earnings power because some of these assets will obviously last a long time past the vintage seasoning.

知道了。然後我確實想提出一個可能有點大局的問題，只是更長期的問題。我認為 - 我們感謝您增加了很多業務並增加了盈利能力，因為其中一些資產顯然會在陳年調味料之後持續很長時間。

But the portfolio has changed a lot and your guidance for the next year and it sounds like potentially, even '24 is a little bit above where credit losses have been running. So maybe just remind us, what is the "normal" loss rate for DFS or for the card portfolio or something like that? Maybe give us a range. Just trying to understand where a typical portfolio settles out? Is it in that 3%, low 3% range, where does that settle up?

但是投資組合發生了很大變化，你對明年的指導聽起來很有可能，即使是 24 年也略高於信貸損失的水平。所以也許只是提醒我們，DFS 或卡組合或類似的東西的“正常”損失率是多少？也許給我們一個範圍。只是想了解典型的投資組合在哪裡結算？它在那個 3%、低 3% 的範圍內，它在哪裡解決？

Yes. Thanks, Mihir. So -- we've been asked that question over the years many, many times. And what I typically refer people back to is, if you take a look at the details of the kind of the charge-off history, you can go back through 2008. And see kind of quarter-over-quarter what's happening on the charge-off front. You can discern kind of normalized charge-off rate from that and then make adjustments for economic periods or kind of vintage-based seasoning.

是的。謝謝，米希爾。所以 - 多年來，我們已經多次被問到這個問題。我通常會向人們推薦的是，如果你看一下沖銷歷史的詳細信息，你可以追溯到 2008 年。然後看看收費的季度環比情況——關閉前面。您可以從中識別出某種標準化的沖銷率，然後根據經濟時期或某種基於年份的調味料進行調整。

Our next question comes from Kevin Barker with Piper Sandler.

我們的下一個問題來自 Kevin Barker 和 Piper Sandler。

And in regards to your employment forecast and your base assumptions, you're pretty clear that the low end, the 3.5% assumes the 4.5% to 5% unemployment rate. But can you help us understand or just confirm that the -- is it the 3.9% high end of the range, implying a 6% unemployment rate or some other scenario out there within your expectations?

關於你的就業預測和你的基本假設，你很清楚低端，3.5% 假設 4.5% 到 5% 的失業率。但是你能幫助我們理解或只是確認 - 它是范圍的 3.9% 的高端，意味著 6% 的失業率或你預期中的其他一些情況嗎？

Yes. So the high end does not weight the 6% entirely. It actually could reflect a scenario where the unemployment is actually higher than the 6%, but it would depend on the depth of it and kind of what industry. So there's multiple scenarios in there. So the guidance I provided in terms of 4.5% or over 6% is intended to kind of get the kind of the meat of the scenarios that were contemplated and weighted.

是的。所以高端並沒有完全加權 6%。它實際上可以反映失業率實際上高於 6% 的情況，但這取決於失業率的深度和行業類型。所以那裡有多種情況。因此，我提供的 4.5% 或超過 6% 的指導旨在某種程度上了解所考慮和加權的情景的實質。

Okay. And then with your baseline assumption of 4.5% to 5%, is that something that we make our way to throughout the year and then maintain that level or something where you expected to peak there and then starkly drift lower?

好的。然後根據你的 4.5% 到 5% 的基線假設，這是我們全年都在努力達到的水平然後保持該水平，還是你預計在那里達到峰值然後明顯下降的水平？

Yes. So it would run through slowly increase through 2023 and how we've thought about it.

是的。所以它會慢慢增加到 2023 年，我們是如何考慮的。

Our next question comes from Don Fandetti with Wells Fargo.

我們的下一個問題來自富國銀行的 Don Fandetti。

Can you dig in a little bit more on the credit card spend growth rate and kind of what you're seeing in terms of any pattern changes. I think the last update through November showed a little bit of a step-down in the growth rate. And can you talk about December and I think maybe you touched on January?

您能否進一步了解信用卡支出增長率以及您在任何模式變化方面所看到的情況。我認為截至 11 月的最新更新顯示增長率略有下降。你能談談 12 月嗎？我想你可能談到了 1 月？

Yes. I'll start. January is off to a very strong start. So we're seeing about a 13% year-over-year growth in sales, and again, reflects the new accounts we put on last year, but also, again, for those who aren't employed a robust environment. We have been seeing increases in the day-to-day category commensurate with inflation and so more spending shifting there.

是的。我會開始。一月是一個非常強勁的開端。因此，我們看到銷售額同比增長約 13%，這再次反映了我們去年投入的新客戶，但也再次反映了那些沒有在強勁環境中工作的人。我們一直看到日常類別的增長與通貨膨脹相稱，因此更多的支出轉移到那裡。

And a lot of what you heard from retailers in terms of softness around home improvement, and hard goods, but a lot of that was just, I think, some of the challenging comparisons to really robust levels from before. So overall, I'd say, stable, but we're certainly encouraged by what we're seeing so far in January.

你從零售商那裡聽到的很多關於家居裝修和耐用品的疲軟情況，但我認為，其中很多只是與之前真正強勁水平的一些具有挑戰性的比較。所以總的來說，我想說，穩定，但我們肯定對 1 月份到目前為止所看到的情況感到鼓舞。

Our next question comes from Arren Cyganovich with Citi.

我們的下一個問題來自花旗的 Arren Cyganovich。

On the marketing outlook, you had indicated that you expect to spend more than 2022 levels, which obviously was a very strong acquisition year for you. What's the thought process there in terms of expecting to increase spend after such a strong year?

關於營銷前景，您曾表示您預計支出超過 2022 年的水平，這顯然對您來說是非常強勁的收購年。在如此強勁的一年之後，在預期增加支出方面，他們的想法是什麼？

Yes. Great question. And you know what, I'm going to hit, kind of give an overview on expenses and then I'll specifically talk about kind of marketing and our thinking there. So we said overall expenses would increase some less than 10%. So what that contemplates is a double-digit increase in marketing and single digits for the non-marketing spend.

是的。很好的問題。你知道嗎，我要說的是，概述一下費用，然後我會具體談談營銷方式和我們在那裡的想法。所以我們說總體支出將增加一些不到 10%。因此，考慮的是營銷支出的兩位數增長和非營銷支出的個位數增長。

And what that reflects is, we continue to see opportunities to acquire profitable new accounts that are consistent with what we do. So that -- in that prime revolver category. We also are intending to spend some money on the launch of the Debit checking product. So that will include dollars for new accounts as well as advertising to bring awareness to the product.

這反映的是，我們繼續看到機會獲得與我們所做的一致的有利可圖的新客戶。所以 - 在那個主要左輪手槍類別中。我們還打算花一些錢推出借記卡產品。因此，這將包括用於新帳戶的美元以及用於提高產品知名度的廣告。

And then it's important to also kind of have a view on the marketing in that, this is our guidance. If we see the macroeconomic environment change or we don't see ample opportunity to spend this money wisely, then we will make calls in terms of the level of spend. And it could be less than what's -- what we've guided to. But overall, we're very, very pleased with kind of our targeting and the effectiveness of the marketing and gave us confidence to continue to increase that.

然後重要的是對營銷有一種看法，這是我們的指導。如果我們看到宏觀經濟環境發生變化，或者我們沒有看到足夠的機會明智地花這筆錢，那麼我們將根據支出水平做出決定。它可能比我們所引導的要少。但總的來說，我們對我們的目標定位和營銷效果非常非常滿意，並讓我們有信心繼續提高這一點。

And then on the personal loan side, you'd indicated that it's -- it's clear that it's performing better than historically. With respect to the guidance's, does the personal loan net charge-off rate, is that expected to go as high as credit cards in 2023? Or are you still expecting it to be somewhat better?

然後在個人貸款方面，你表示它 - 很明顯它的表現比歷史上更好。關於指導，個人貸款淨註銷率是否預計會在 2023 年與信用卡一樣高？還是您仍然期望它會好一些？

Yes. I'm going to stick at the top level of the guidance we provided. And then we give details by product in the supplement. I would use that information and impute kind of the charge-off rate there. But again, product has been performing very, very well. Loss rates significantly below kind of what's happening out in the industry. .

是的。我將堅持我們提供的指導的最高級別。然後我們在補充中按產品提供詳細信息。我會使用該信息並估算那裡的沖銷率。但同樣，產品表現非常非常好。損失率大大低於行業中發生的情況。 .

And it's a kind of an -- it's a prime customer set. So that should give a view of kind of at least a way to think about expectations for that product.

這是一種 - 它是主要客戶群。因此，這至少應該給出一種思考對該產品的期望的方法。

All right. Time. So I think we're going to conclude our call there. Any additional questions, please reach out to the IR team. And thanks very much for joining us this morning.

好的。時間。所以我認為我們將在那裡結束我們的電話會議。如有任何其他問題，請聯繫 IR 團隊。非常感謝今天早上加入我們。

Thank you. This does conclude today's call. We thank you for your participation. You may disconnect at any time.

謝謝你。今天的電話會議到此結束。我們感謝您的參與。您可以隨時斷開連接。