發現金融 (DFS) 2022 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good morning. My name is Katie, and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the Third Quarter 2022 Discover Financial Services Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions)

早上好。我叫凱蒂，今天我將成為您的會議接線員。在這個時候，我想歡迎大家參加 2022 年第三季度發現金融服務收益電話會議。 （操作員說明）

I will now turn the call over to Mr. Eric Wasserstrom, Head of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

我現在將把電話轉給投資者關係主管 Eric Wasserstrom 先生。請繼續。

Thank you, Katie, and good morning, everyone. Welcome to today's call. I'll begin on Slide 2 of our earnings presentation, which you can find in the financial section of our Investor Relations website, investorrelations.discover.com.

謝謝你，凱蒂，大家早上好。歡迎來到今天的電話。我將從我們收益報告的幻燈片 2 開始，您可以在我們的投資者關係網站investorrelations.discover.com 的財務部分找到該幻燈片。

Our discussion today contains certain forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially. Please refer to our notices regarding forward-looking statements that appear in our third quarter's earnings release, press release and presentation.

我們今天的討論包含某些受風險和不確定性影響的前瞻性陳述，這些風險和不確定性可能導致實際結果出現重大差異。請參閱我們關於出現在第三季度收益發布、新聞稿和演示文稿中的前瞻性陳述的通知。

Our call today will include remarks from our CEO, Roger Hochschild; and John Greene, our Chief Financial Officer. After we conclude our formal comments, there will be time for a question-and-answer session. During the Q&A session, you will be permitted to ask one question followed by one follow-up question. After your follow-up question, please return to the queue.

我們今天的電話會議將包括我們的首席執行官 Roger Hochschild 的講話；和我們的首席財務官 John Greene。在我們結束正式評論後，將有時間進行問答環節。在問答環節，您將被允許提出一個問題，然後是一個後續問題。在您的後續問題之後，請返回隊列。

Now it's my pleasure to turn the call over to Roger.

現在我很高興將電話轉給羅傑。

Thanks, Eric, and thanks to our listeners for joining today's call. I'm very pleased with our results this quarter. Against a fluid macroeconomic backdrop, we generated strong financial performance while continuing to advance our strategic priorities.

謝謝 Eric，也感謝我們的聽眾加入今天的電話會議。我對本季度的業績感到非常滿意。在動蕩的宏觀經濟背景下，我們取得了強勁的財務業績，同時繼續推進我們的戰略重點。

Let's start with a summary on Slide 3. For the third quarter, we reported net income of $1 billion after tax or $3.54 per share. Over the past 3 months, as Fed policy has become more restrictive, it has made fears of a recession more acute. Against this backdrop, the key narratives of the third quarter results are the strength of our balance sheet and the quality of our earnings. Our increase in revenues this year has been largely driven by our strong receivables growth with loans up 17% year-over-year. This growth was driven largely by elevated sales volume and the increased number of new accounts we've added since mid-2021. We continue to use a through-the-cycle approach to underwriting, which considers all stages of a credit cycle, including downturns.

讓我們從幻燈片 3 的摘要開始。第三季度，我們報告的稅後淨收入為 10 億美元或每股 3.54 美元。在過去的 3 個月裡，隨著美聯儲政策變得更加嚴格，人們對經濟衰退的擔憂變得更加嚴重。在這種背景下，第三季度業績的主要敘述是我們資產負債表的實力和我們的收益質量。我們今年收入的增長主要是由於我們強勁的應收賬款增長，貸款同比增長 17%。這一增長主要是由銷量增加和我們自 2021 年年中以來增加的新賬戶數量推動的。我們繼續使用貫穿整個週期的方法進行承保，該方法考慮了信貸週期的所有階段，包括低迷時期。

As part of our conservative credit management, we marginally tightened our new account underwriting criteria this quarter. Given these factors, we consider our growth to be consistent with current macroeconomic conditions. Naturally, discussion of recession elicits concerns about credit quality, but the credit performance of our loan portfolio at this stage does not suggest anything other than gradual normalization. Nonetheless, a late-cycle environment requires a particular awareness of changing conditions and underscores the importance of our strong financial condition.

作為我們保守信用管理的一部分，我們在本季度略微收緊了新賬戶承保標準。鑑於這些因素，我們認為我們的增長與當前的宏觀經濟狀況是一致的。自然，對經濟衰退的討論引發了對信貸質量的擔憂，但我們現階段貸款組合的信貸表現除了逐漸正常化外沒有其他任何跡象。儘管如此，週期後期的環境需要對不斷變化的條件有特別的認識，並強調了我們強勁的財務狀況的重要性。

We also continue to advance our strategic priorities. As a few examples, in August, we expanded our global presence with the signing of Woori Card, one of the largest issuers in South Korea. The extension of this relationship as well as the number of new network partnerships we've announced this year highlight our focus on expanding our international presence. We continue to demonstrate the value of our network and our growing relationships with FinTech partners. As an example, we announced in October that we will facilitate payments for TYDEi's new healthcare vendor management system, which will digitize and streamline payments in an industry where legacy purchasing is still primarily manual.

我們還繼續推進我們的戰略重點。例如，8 月，我們通過簽署韓國最大發行商之一的 Woori Card 擴大了我們的全球業務。這種關係的擴展以及我們今年宣布的新網絡合作夥伴的數量突顯了我們對擴大國際影響力的關注。我們繼續展示我們網絡的價值以及我們與金融科技合作夥伴不斷發展的關係。例如，我們在 10 月份宣布，我們將為 TYDEi 的新醫療保健供應商管理系統提供支付便利，該系統將數字化和簡化傳統採購仍然主要是手動的行業的支付。

Finally, this summer, we announced the opening of our new advanced analytics Resource Center at our downtown Chicago location. The first cohort of 75 individuals, which we selected from over 1,000 applicants has already started, and we intend to grow the program with an additional cohort in 2023. This follows the grand opening of our customer care center in the south-side neighborhood of Chatham earlier this year and underscores our commitment to bring additional jobs to Chicago while supporting great customer experiences.

最後，今年夏天，我們宣佈在芝加哥市中心開設新的高級分析資源中心。我們從 1,000 多名申請者中選出的第一批 75 人已經開始，我們打算在 2023 年增加一批人來擴大該計劃。這是在我們位於查塔姆南部社區的客戶服務中心盛大開業之後今年早些時候，並強調了我們在為芝加哥帶來更多就業機會的同時支持出色的客戶體驗的承諾。

I'll now turn the call over to John to review our results in more detail.

我現在將把電話轉給 John，以更詳細地查看我們的結果。

Thank you, Roger, and good morning, everyone. I'll start with our financial summary results on Slide 4. There were 3 important trends in the quarter: strong asset growth, net interest margin expansion and modest credit normalization. The strength in asset growth, combined with a NIM rate improvement increased revenue 8% sequentially and 25% year-over-year. Asset growth resulted in an increase in our reserves under CECL of $304 million, but our reserve coverage ratio declined slightly. So while our reported net income was down 8% year-over-year, adjusting for the reserve change, our net income would have been 28% higher on a year-over-year basis.

謝謝你，羅傑，大家早上好。我將從幻燈片 4 上的財務摘要結果開始。本季度有 3 個重要趨勢：強勁的資產增長、淨息差擴張和適度的信貸正常化。資產增長強勁，加上淨息差率提高，收入環比增長 8%，同比增長 25%。資產增長導致我們在 CECL 項下的準備金增加了 3.04 億美元，但我們的準備金覆蓋率略有下降。因此，雖然我們報告的淨收入同比下降 8%，但調整準備金變化後，我們的淨收入將同比增長 28%。

Let's review the details starting on Slide 5. Net interest income was up $438 million year-over-year or 18%, driven by higher average receivables and improved net interest margin. We achieved a record high NIM rate of 11.05%, up 25 basis points from the prior year and 11 basis points sequentially. On both a year-over-year and sequential basis, the increase in net interest margin primarily reflects the higher prime rate, partially offset by higher funding costs and increased promotional and balance transfers. Receivable growth was driven by card, which increased 19% year-over-year, reflecting continued strong sales and the contribution from new accounts growth last year and into this year. Sales growth was 15% in the period, a deceleration from the 20% growth we experienced in the first half of the year.

讓我們從幻燈片 5 開始回顧細節。受平均應收賬款增加和淨息差改善的推動，淨利息收入同比增長 4.38 億美元或 18%。我們實現了創紀錄的 11.05% 的 NIM 率，比上年上升 25 個基點，環比上升 11 個基點。在同比和環比的基礎上，淨息差的增加主要反映了較高的最優惠利率，部分被較高的資金成本以及增加的促銷和余額轉移所抵消。應收賬款增長由卡推動，同比增長 19%，反映了持續強勁的銷售以及去年和今年新賬戶增長的貢獻。期內銷售額增長 15%，較上半年的 20% 增長有所放緩。

As anticipated, the sales decline was partially mitigated by a decrease in the payment rate, which fell 70 basis points in the quarter. Nonetheless, it remains more than 400 basis points over 2019 levels. We expect payment rate to continue to decline through the back half of 2023, which should help support receivable growth.

正如預期的那樣，銷售額下降部分被支付率的下降所緩解，該季度下降了 70 個基點。儘管如此，它仍比 2019 年的水平高出 400 多個基點。我們預計支付率將在 2023 年下半年繼續下降，這將有助於支持應收賬款的增長。

Turning to our non-card products. Organic student loans increased 4% as a result of peak season originations. Personal loans were up 11%, the growth reflects our disciplined approach to marketing, underwriting and pricing of this product, which we believe has created an attractive competitive position for us in the market, particularly relative to some nonbank originators. In terms of funding mix, our customer deposit balances were up 4% year-over-year and 2% sequentially. So far, deposit pricing has been in line with what we expected in a rising rate environment. As we mentioned last quarter, our strong asset growth has caused deposits to various proportion of our funding mix but we continue to target 70% to 80% deposit funding over the medium term.

轉向我們的非卡片產品。由於旺季的發放，有機學生貸款增加了 4%。個人貸款增長了 11%，這一增長反映了我們對該產品的營銷、承銷和定價的嚴格方法，我們認為這為我們在市場上創造了具有吸引力的競爭地位，特別是相對於一些非銀行發起人而言。在資金組合方面，我們的客戶存款餘額同比增長 4%，環比增長 2%。到目前為止，存款定價一直符合我們在利率上升環境中的預期。正如我們上個季度提到的，我們強勁的資產增長導致存款占我們資金組合的不同比例，但我們繼續將中期內存款資金的目標設定為 70% 至 80%。

We also issued $2 billion of card ABS fixed notes in the quarter and booked $5 billion of broker deposits. We maintain broad access to a variety of funding sources, enabling us to confidently fund our asset growth.

我們還在本季度發行了 20 億美元的卡式 ABS 固定票據，並記入了 50 億美元的經紀人存款。我們保持廣泛的各種資金來源，使我們能夠自信地為我們的資產增長提供資金。

Looking at other revenue on Slide 6. Noninterest income increased $264 million or 71%. This was partially due to a $167 million loss on our equity investments in the prior year quarter compared to a $4 million loss this quarter. Adjusting for these, our noninterest income was up 19%. This was driven by higher net discount and interchange revenue which was up $47 million or 16%, reflecting strong sales and favorable sales mix, partially offset by higher rewards costs.

查看幻燈片 6 上的其他收入。非利息收入增加了 2.64 億美元或 71%。這部分是由於我們在上一季度的股權投資損失了 1.67 億美元，而本季度則損失了 400 萬美元。對這些進行調整後，我們的非利息收入增長了 19%。這是由於較高的淨折扣和交換收入增加了 4700 萬美元或 16%，反映了強勁的銷售和有利的銷售組合，部分被較高的獎勵成本所抵消。

Similar to last quarter, we estimate that inflation contributed between 200 and 250 basis points of sales growth in the period. The strong sales also drove higher reward expenses. Consistent with the prior quarter, our rewards rate increased 3 basis points year-over-year, driven by substantial growth in new accounts, increasing the cost of our cashback program. Year-to-date, our rewards rate is up 2 basis points, consistent with our expectation of 2 to 4 basis points of annual reward rate inflation.

與上一季度類似，我們估計通脹在此期間貢獻了 200 至 250 個基點的銷售增長。強勁的銷售也推動了更高的獎勵費用。與上一季度一致，在新賬戶大幅增長的推動下，我們的獎勵率同比增長 3 個基點，增加了我們現金返還計劃的成本。年初至今，我們的回報率上升了 2 個基點，與我們預期的 2 至 4 個基點的年度回報率通脹一致。

Moving to expenses on Slide 7. Total operating expenses were up $198 million or 17% year-over-year and up 13% from the prior quarter. Compensation costs were up primarily due to increased headcount. Our servicing organization is a key component of our value proposition. We expect to grow this as our accounts and assets expand. This will contribute to an increase in salary and wages through the end of this year and into next year. Marketing expenses increased $66 million or 31% as we continue to invest for growth in our card and consumer banking products. We grew new card accounts by 22% from last year's third quarter.

轉到幻燈片 7 的費用。總運營費用同比增長 1.98 億美元或 17%，比上一季度增長 13%。薪酬成本上升主要是由於員工人數增加。我們的服務組織是我們價值主張的關鍵組成部分。隨著我們的賬戶和資產的擴大，我們預計會增加這一點。這將有助於在今年年底和明年之前增加工資和工資。隨著我們繼續投資於信用卡和消費銀行產品的增長，營銷費用增加了 6600 萬美元或 31%。我們的新卡賬戶比去年第三季度增長了 22%。

Professional fees increased $43 million or 22% as a result of investments in technology and increased consulting costs. We also had additional fraud costs in the consumer bank, driven by increased volumes as well as some legal expense elevating our other expense category in the quarter.

由於技術投資和諮詢成本增加，專業費用增加了 4300 萬美元或 22%。由於交易量增加以及一些法律費用增加了本季度我們的其他費用類別，我們還在消費銀行中產生了額外的欺詐成本。

Moving to credit performance on Slide 8. Total net charge-offs were 1.71% or 25 basis points higher than the prior year, but down 9 basis points from the prior quarter. Total net charge-off dollars were up $114 million from the prior year and only up $10 million sequentially. In the Card portfolio, the net charge-off rate of 1.92% was 27 basis points higher than the prior year and 9 basis points lower sequentially.

轉向幻燈片 8 上的信貸表現。淨沖銷總額比上年高 1.71% 或 25 個基點，但比上一季度下降 9 個基點。淨沖銷美元總額比去年增加了 1.14 億美元，環比僅增加了 1000 萬美元。在卡組合中，淨沖銷率為 1.92%，比上年高 27 個基點，環比下降 9 個基點。

Similar to our commentary from last quarter, we are not seeing evidence of emerging credit stress beyond normal expected normalization. Delinquencies among our lower prime segment have been normalized, but in upper prime delinquencies and charge-offs remain below pre-pandemic level. This is consistent with our baseline expectation that credit will continue to normalize over the next several quarters, absence a change in macro conditions.

與我們上季度的評論類似，我們沒有看到超出正常預期正常化的新興信貸壓力的證據。我們低端市場的拖欠率已經正常化，但高端市場的拖欠和沖銷仍低於大流行前的水平。這與我們的基線預期一致，即未來幾個季度信貸將繼續正常化，而宏觀條件沒有變化。

Turning to the discussion of our allowance on Slide 9. This past quarter, we increased our allowance by $304 million due to higher receivable balances. Our reserve rate modestly declined to 6.7%. For us, changes to employment conditions pose the most significant risk to loss levels. As part of our reserving process, we have considered the prospects of higher unemployment among a range of macroeconomic scenarios and is reflected in our reserve balance.

轉到幻燈片 9 上對我們備抵的討論。上個季度，由於應收賬款餘額增加，我們將備抵增加了 3.04 億美元。我們的準備金率小幅下降至 6.7%。對我們而言，就業條件的變化對損失水平構成最重大的風險。作為我們準備金過程的一部分，我們考慮了一系列宏觀經濟情景中更高失業率的前景，並反映在我們的準備金餘額中。

Looking at Slide 10. Our common equity Tier 1 for the period was 13.9%. The strong asset growth was a primary driver of the approximate 30 basis point decline from the prior period. Our long-term target remains 10.5%. In terms of capital return, we declared a quarterly common dividend of $0.60 per share and repurchased $212 million of common stock in the period before we decided to temporarily suspend our buyback activity.

看看幻燈片 10。我們在此期間的普通股一級為 13.9%。強勁的資產增長是較上一時期下降約 30 個基點的主要驅動力。我們的長期目標仍然是 10.5%。在資本回報方面，我們宣布了每股 0.60 美元的季度普通股股息，並在我們決定暫停回購活動之前的期間回購了 2.12 億美元的普通股。

Concluding on Slide 11. As we look at the last quarter of the year, our prospects for 2022 remain favorable, and we are once again improving elements of our expectations. We are revising our view on loan growth to high teens, continued strong sales, new account acquisitions through the third quarter and some recent improvements in the payment rates support our confidence in the outlook. In terms of NIM, we expect the full year to be mildly above the high end of our expected range with sequential margin improvement in the fourth quarter based on rate hikes that happened in late September.

在幻燈片 11 上結束。回顧今年最後一個季度，我們對 2022 年的前景仍然看好，我們再次提高了我們的預期要素。我們正在修改對青少年貸款增長的看法、持續強勁的銷售、第三季度的新賬戶收購以及最近支付率的一些改善，這些都支持我們對前景的信心。就淨息差而言，我們預計全年將略高於我們預期範圍的高端，基於 9 月底發生的加息，第四季度的利潤率將連續改善。

We are revising our expense outlook to be up high single digits versus the prior year, driven by increased marketing and compensation costs. In line with previous communications, we still expect marketing costs to come in above 2019 levels as we've discussed. We expect to add headcount, which will elevate salary and wages as well as benefit expense. Excluding these 2 categories, expenses are expected to increase by low single digits. We now expect net charge-offs to be between 1.8% and 1.9% for the full year, driven by lower-than-expected credit losses through this point in the year. Our temporary pause on share repurchases remains in place, but we hope to resume share repurchases before year-end.

在營銷和薪酬成本增加的推動下，我們正在修改我們的支出前景，使其與上一年相比上調個位數。與之前的溝通一致，我們仍然預計營銷成本將高於我們已經討論過的 2019 年水平。我們希望增加員工人數，這將提高工資和工資以及福利費用。排除這兩個類別，預計費用將以低個位數增長。我們現在預計全年的淨沖銷將在 1.8% 至 1.9% 之間，這是由於今年此時的信貸損失低於預期。我們暫時暫停股票回購仍然存在，但我們希望在年底前恢復股票回購。

In summary, receivable growth accelerated as we continue to benefit from elevated sales, strong new account acquisitions and improvements in the payment rate. NIM continues to benefit from prime rate increases. Funding costs are consistent with expectation and credit performance is slowly normalizing, reflecting our disciplined approach to underwriting and credit management. These results demonstrate the resiliency of our integrated digital banking and payments model. Our earnings power, coupled with our strong balance sheet and capital position, keeps us well positioned for continued profitable growth through a range of economic conditions.

總而言之，隨著我們繼續受益於銷售增長、強勁的新賬戶收購和支付率的提高，應收賬款增長加速。 NIM 繼續受益於最優惠利率的提高。融資成本與預期一致，信貸表現正在緩慢恢復正常，反映了我們嚴謹的承保和信貸管理方法。這些結果證明了我們集成的數字銀行和支付模型的彈性。我們的盈利能力，加上我們強大的資產負債表和資本狀況，使我們能夠在一系列經濟條件下保持持續盈利增長。

With that, I'll turn the call back to our operator, Katie, to open the line for Q&A.

有了這個，我將把電話轉回我們的接線員凱蒂，打開問答線路。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

We'll take our first question from Ryan Nash with Goldman Sachs.

我們將向高盛的瑞安納什提出我們的第一個問題。

So maybe to start on the net interest margin, John, you commented that it implies another uptick given the rate hikes that we saw at the end of the quarter. Can you maybe just talk about where we go from here on the margin. I think last quarter, you talked about it potentially peaking out. I'm just curious, do you think you can continue to hold the line around these levels? And maybe what is incorporated within that in terms of deposit betas and the like?

所以也許從淨息差開始，約翰，你評論說，鑑於我們在本季度末看到的加息，這意味著再次上升。你能不能談談我們從這裡開始的地方。我認為上個季度，您談到它可能會達到頂峰。我只是好奇，你認為你可以繼續保持在這些水平附近嗎？也許在存款貝塔等方麵包含了什麼？

Great. Okay. Thanks for the question, Ryan. There's a lot there. So let me start with the fundamentals that we're seeing. So the liability side of the balance sheet is certainly subjected to increases in deposit funding costs as a result of competitive actions and general needs across the market to attract some deposits. With that said, the 11-plus percent we delivered in the third quarter, we do expect some upside from that as a result of the Fed hikes in September. So certainly, sequentially into the fourth quarter, we'll see further improvement.

偉大的。好的。謝謝你的問題，瑞安。那裡有很多。因此，讓我從我們所看到的基本面開始。因此，由於競爭行為和整個市場對吸引一些存款的普遍需求，資產負債表的負債方肯定會增加存款融資成本。話雖如此，我們在第三季度交付的 11% 以上，我們確實預計美聯儲 9 月加息會帶來一些上行空間。因此，當然，連續到第四季度，我們會看到進一步的改善。

Now beyond the -- excuse me, into the fourth quarter, we'll see improvement. Beyond the fourth quarter at this point, we're going to reserve any commentary. But what I would say is we don't expect any specific, I'll say, seismic changes to net interest margins in 2023 based on the stability of our funding base and turn access to multiple sources of funds.

現在超越 - 對不起，進入第四季度，我們會看到改善。在第四季度之後，我們將保留任何評論。但我要說的是，基於我們資金基礎的穩定性和轉向多種資金來源，我們預計 2023 年的淨息差不會發生任何具體的變化。

Got it. Roger, maybe one for you. You mentioned you guys are marginally tightening on account acquisition. Can you maybe just give additional color regarding some of the changes you're making to underwriting? And what do you think this might mean for growth over the intermediate term?

知道了。羅傑，也許給你一個。你提到你們正在略微收緊帳戶獲取。您能否就您對承保所做的一些更改提供額外的顏色？您認為這對中期增長意味著什麼？

Sure. So I would start by saying, in general, it remains a very good environment. We're seeing cost per account on the prime side below what we had last year. Value proposition is resonating well. For the new account space at the margin, we tightened some of those segments that will be most volatile in a downturn, so I think the lower end of prime. And we're ready to take further action on new accounts or the portfolio side. But again, I'd say overall, a very good environment, and that's part of why you're seeing such strong growth.

當然。所以我首先要說的是，總的來說，它仍然是一個非常好的環境。我們看到主要客戶的每個帳戶的成本低於去年的水平。價值主張引起了很好的共鳴。對於保證金的新賬戶空間，我們收緊了一些在經濟低迷時期波動最大的部分，所以我認為是黃金的低端。我們已準備好對新賬戶或投資組合方面採取進一步行動。但我再說一遍，總體而言，環境非常好，這就是為什麼你會看到如此強勁的增長的部分原因。

Our next question will come from Moshe Orenbuch with Crédit Suisse.

我們的下一個問題將來自瑞士信貸的 Moshe Orenbuch。

I was hoping maybe you could talk for a little bit of a different tack. Maybe talk a little bit about the competitive environment and what you're seeing from a credit standpoint and from a competitive marketing standpoint, kind of, in your 2 installment loan businesses, both in the personal loan business and the student loan business and maybe talk about that and the outlook there for a moment.

我希望也許你可以談談不同的策略。也許談談競爭環境以及您從信用角度和競爭營銷的角度所看到的，有點，在您的 2 期貸款業務中，無論是在個人貸款業務和學生貸款業務中，還是談談關於那個和那裡的前景。

Yes. So it is hard Moshe to know what individual competitors are doing. I would say in general, most of them are much broader spectrum lenders than we are. And so my guess is, we'd be seeing some stress at the lower ends of their books. For us, a rising rate environment creates a lot of focus on debt consolidation, which is the primary use of our personal loans. So we're maintaining very disciplined credit criteria by seeing strong originations in that segment.

是的。因此，Moshe 很難知道個別競爭對手在做什麼。我會說一般來說，他們中的大多數是比我們更廣泛的貸款人。所以我的猜測是，我們會在他們的書的低端看到一些壓力。對我們來說，利率上升的環境使人們更加關注債務整合，這是我們個人貸款的主要用途。因此，我們通過看到該領域的強大起源來維持非常嚴格的信用標準。

Got it. It is interesting. I mean I think we've seen that for others that are at the higher end of the credit spectrum where the stress you're talking about we do see at the lower end. Follow-up question that I had is, you talked about we're hoping to restart the buyback by year-end or so, a little bit growth kind of causing a 30 basis point downtick in your capital, but you're still well above. Just talk about, I guess, the appetite for that given -- and does the kind of macro environment figure into that? Just talk about the appetite for the buyback once that restarts?

知道了。挺有趣的。我的意思是，我認為我們已經看到，對於處於信用範圍較高端的其他人來說，您所說的壓力確實在較低端。我的後續問題是，你談到我們希望在年底左右重新開始回購，一點點增長會導致你的資本下降 30 個基點，但你仍然遠遠高於.只是談談，我猜，對給定的胃口 - 那種宏觀環境是否影響到這一點？只談重啟後的回購意願？

Yes. Sure. Moshe, I'll take that. So from an overall capital level, we are very well capitalized, right? So we're 13%, approaching 14% on the CET1. Our target is 10.5%. The credit book has been very, very stable. It's normalizing, but overall, very, very stable. So the capital allocation priorities through the firm remain in place. So first is to invest in strong organic growth, second would be a return of capital, and then third, perhaps a bolt-on acquisition, and we're going to do that, likely be in the Payments segment. So overall, those priorities didn't change. So the suspension remains in place, but we're hopeful that it will resume -- buybacks will resume here in the fourth quarter.

是的。當然。摩西，我會接受的。所以從整體資本水平來看，我們的資本非常充足，對吧？所以我們是 13%，在 CET1 上接近 14%。我們的目標是 10.5%。信用記錄非常非常穩定。它正在正常化，但總體而言，非常非常穩定。因此，通過公司的資本配置優先事項仍然存在。因此，首先是投資於強勁的有機增長，其次是資本回報，然後是第三，也許是補強收購，我們將這樣做，可能是在支付領域。所以總的來說，這些優先事項沒有改變。所以暫停仍然存在，但我們希望它會恢復——回購將在第四季度恢復。

Our next question will come from Sanjay Sakhrani with KBW.

我們的下一個問題將來自 KBW 的 Sanjay Sakhrani。

John, I wanted to just walk through the expense guide increase. You mentioned it's a blend of marketing and comp costs. Could you just parse apart what part is -- how much of each sort of contributed to the increase? And I'm just trying to put the marketing comments to slightly pulling back the credit box. And then as far as like the headcount increases, was that related to the growth? I'm just trying to figure out what changed in terms of the comp cost.

約翰，我只想了解一下費用指南的增加。你提到它是營銷和補償成本的混合體。你能不能分析一下是哪一部分——每種類型對增加的貢獻有多少？我只是想把營銷評論稍微拉回信用箱。然後就員工人數增加而言，這與增長有關嗎？我只是想弄清楚在補償成本方面發生了什麼變化。

Yes, yes, yes, happy to help with that, Sanjay. So let me provide some context upfront here. So year-to-date total expenses are up 7%. Comp expense is up 5%, and excluding marketing, our expense base year-to-date is up 2%. So actually really, really what I'll say first half of the year and into this quarter some strong fundamentals.

是的，是的，是的，很高興能幫上忙，桑傑。因此，讓我在這裡預先提供一些背景信息。因此，年初至今的總支出增長了 7%。補償費用增長了 5%，不包括營銷，我們今年迄今為止的費用基數增長了 2%。所以實際上，我將在今年上半年和本季度說一些強勁的基本面。

Now we did have a significant growth in the asset base, which, of course, means that there are accounts that we're going to have to service. And you might have seen a press release that came out that indicated we were hiring about 2,000 servicing agents through the balance of this year and into next year depending on the balance sheet and our customer value proposition and metrics.

現在我們的資產基礎確實有了顯著增長，這當然意味著我們必須為一些賬戶提供服務。您可能已經看到發布的新聞稿表明，根據資產負債表和我們的客戶價值主張和指標，我們將在今年剩餘時間和明年僱用約 2,000 名服務代理。

So overall, the strong growth and the strong acquisition has necessitated investments in our people. We'll continue to do that. We've also made specific investments in information technology, specifically around resources, advanced analytics in order to further position us to be able to grow profitably and then also enhance underwriting and customer targeting.

因此，總體而言，強勁的增長和強勁的收購需要對我們的員工進行投資。我們將繼續這樣做。我們還在信息技術方面進行了具體投資，特別是圍繞資源、高級分析，以進一步使我們能夠實現盈利增長，然後加強承保和客戶定位。

So we believe all those investments make perfect sense for the long term. And what you're seeing here in the third quarter is a combination of what I'll say is a tough comp as a result of some turnover last year. And then us coming on with backfilling resources, what I'll say, is salaried resources as well as the investments I talked about in terms of customer service. So hopefully, that provides some context and color to your question.

因此，我們相信所有這些投資從長遠來看都是非常有意義的。您在第三季度在這裡看到的是我所說的由於去年的一些營業額而導致的艱難組合。然後我們開始回填資源，我要說的是受薪資源以及我談到的客戶服務方面的投資。因此，希望這能為您的問題提供一些背景和色彩。

Okay. That's very helpful. And then I know we're trying to read between the lines in terms of the student loan servicing inquiry or investigation that's going on. But just to be clear, there is no change to how you guys are thinking about it relative to last quarter. And as far as the expenses are concerned, it seems like things are progressing as you expected it to and it's just a matter of timing. Is that a correct statement?

好的。這很有幫助。然後我知道我們正試圖從字裡行間解讀學生貸款服務查詢或正在進行的調查。但需要明確的是，與上個季度相比，你們對它的看法沒有變化。就費用而言，似乎事情正在按您的預期進行，這只是時間問題。這是一個正確的說法嗎？

Yes, that is a correct statement. So no change. Obviously, when we have some news to share, we're going to share it. The expense guidance we provided and the updates reflect those items I discussed on your previous question and no specific changes related to -- expenses related to the buybacks as mentioned.

是的，這是一個正確的說法。所以沒有變化。顯然，當我們有一些新聞要分享時，我們會分享它。我們提供的費用指南和更新反映了我在您之前的問題中討論過的那些項目，並且沒有與上述回購相關的費用相關的具體變化。

Our next question will come from John Hecht with Jefferies.

我們的下一個問題將來自 Jefferies 的 John Hecht。

Actually, most of my questions have been asked, and I was going to ask one about marketing. But maybe since you addressed the spend patterns, maybe can you talk about -- just because it's a topic that we haven't really talked about in detail recently your perspective on rewards and the competitive environment around rewards and what that means for the intermediate term?

實際上，我的大部分問題都被問到了，我打算問一個關於營銷的問題。但也許既然你談到了支出模式，也許你能談談 - 只是因為這是一個我們最近沒有真正詳細討論過的話題，你對獎勵和圍繞獎勵的競爭環境的看法以及這對中期意味著什麼?

Yes. Sure. So a lot of the most intense competition on rewards is in the super prime segment, and we've talked over the last year or 2, how we think some of the propositions issuers are putting out aren't necessarily sustainable in the long run. As John mentioned, our rewards costs are moving up exactly as we forecast. We haven't felt the need to make any structural changes to our program. So as you can see from the growth in the new accounts, our value proposition competes very well in that prime revolver segment. And so while the market is always competitive, we bring a differentiated value proposition that resonates well with consumers.

是的。當然。因此，許多最激烈的獎勵競爭都發生在超級優質領域，我們在過去一兩年裡討論過，我們認為發行人提出的一些主張從長遠來看不一定是可持續的。正如約翰所說，我們的獎勵成本正像我們預測的那樣上升。我們還沒有覺得有必要對我們的計劃進行任何結構上的改變。因此，正如您從新客戶的增長中看到的那樣，我們的價值主張在主要左輪手槍領域的競爭非常好。因此，儘管市場總是競爭激烈，但我們帶來了與消費者產生共鳴的差異化價值主張。

Okay. And then second question is maybe thinking about like a '21 cohort, and I know it's probably early for the '22 cohort, but what can you tell us in terms of how they're seasoning utilization rates and kind of delinquency seasoning? Is there -- is it back to what it looked like in '19? Or is there something different that's worth pointing out with respect to more recent vintages?

好的。然後第二個問題可能是像 '21 隊列一樣思考，我知道對於 '22 隊列來說可能還為時過早，但是你能告訴我們他們的調味料利用率和拖欠調味料的種類嗎？有沒有——它回到了 19 年的樣子嗎？或者關於最近的年份，有什麼不同的地方值得指出嗎？

Yes. I would say more recent vintages are performing exactly in line with our expectations, right? I mean every vintage got distorted during the pandemic. So you saw it cut across the curves. But again, we feel very good about the performance.

是的。我會說最近幾個年份的表現完全符合我們的預期，對吧？我的意思是，在大流行期間，每個年份都被扭曲了。所以你看到它穿過曲線。但同樣，我們對錶演感覺非常好。

Our next question will come from John Pancari with Evercore.

我們的下一個問題將來自與 Evercore 的 John Pancari。

On the efficiency ratio came in around 40% for the third quarter. And just given the commentary that you gave around the investments that you're making and your expense expectations, can you maybe help us think about how that could shape up for the fourth quarter, and more importantly, into 2023? How we could think about the trajectory there.

第三季度的效率比約為 40%。鑑於您對您正在進行的投資和您的費用預期所做的評論，您能否幫助我們思考第四季度，更重要的是，到 2023 年，這將如何形成？我們如何思考那裡的軌跡。

Yes. John, thanks for the question. So what we said in the past and what we've told our Board and what we're targeting is an efficiency ratio in the high 30s. And through this year, we've done a pretty good job in terms of being able to deliver that. Certainly, the really strong growth and the great performance through the first half on expense -- on the expense base. And then the third quarter reflects some investments. And despite those investments, still below 40%, we're going to continue to make investments where we see an opportunity to drive great returns for our shareholders.

是的。約翰，謝謝你的問題。因此，我們過去所說的以及我們告訴董事會的內容以及我們的目標是 30 多歲的效率比。今年以來，我們在實現這一目標方面做得非常好。當然，真正強勁的增長和上半年在費用方面的出色表現 - 在費用基礎上。然後第三季度反映了一些投資。儘管有這些投資，仍低於 40%，但我們將繼續在我們認為有機會為股東帶來豐厚回報的領域進行投資。

And as we approach 2023, we are aware that the economic environment is a little tougher. We do feel like we have remaining tailwinds in terms of asset growth and we do have investments we're going to continue to make. So I would say for '23 specifically, we will come out in January to give more specific details. But the overall commitments remain in place, commitment to positive operating leverage and efficiency ratio south of 40% and expense discipline while investing for growth.

隨著我們接近 2023 年，我們意識到經濟環境變得更加艱難。我們確實覺得我們在資產增長方面還有剩餘的順風，我們確實有我們將繼續進行的投資。所以我會說，特別是 23 年，我們將在一月份發布更具體的細節。但總體承諾仍然存在，承諾積極的經營槓桿和效率比率低於 40%，並在投資增長時遵守費用紀律。

Okay. That's helpful. And then on the reserve front, just wanted to get your take on how you see that trajecting here? I know you allowed the reserve to bleed a bit in terms of the ratio this quarter. But now as you're seeing some of the normalization that you indicated and some of the pressure on delinquencies, how should we think about the reserve as you look here, particularly as you factor in the economic conditions and how you're looking at the -- how the economy, the impact on the economy plays out.

好的。這很有幫助。然後在預備隊前線，只是想了解一下你如何看待這裡的軌跡？我知道你允許儲備金在本季度的比率方面有所下降。但是現在，當您看到您所表示的一些正常化以及拖欠的一些壓力時，我們應該如何看待您在這裡看到的儲備金，特別是當您考慮到經濟狀況以及您如何看待——經濟如何，對經濟的影響如何發揮。

Yes. Great. Yes, thanks for that question. So a little bit of context there. So we put on about $5.5 billion to $5.6 billion worth of assets in the quarter. Our reserves increased by $304 million. So as we look at the portfolio and the macro environment, now we're seeing the portfolio continuing to be very, very stable, but normalizing.

是的。偉大的。是的，謝謝這個問題。所以有一點上下文。因此，我們在本季度投入了價值約 55 億至 56 億美元的資產。我們的儲備金增加了 3.04 億美元。因此，當我們查看投資組合和宏觀環境時，現在我們看到投資組合繼續非常非常穩定，但正在正常化。

The macro environment indications of a recession are certainly increasing. Roger mentioned in his comments about some mild -- in his comments about some mild tightening.

經濟衰退的宏觀環境跡象肯定在增加。羅傑在他的評論中提到了一些溫和的——在他的評論中提到了一些溫和的緊縮。

So in terms of expectation around reserves, we'll continue to take a look at the macros. We'll run multiple scenarios and then make sure the balance sheet, the portfolio specifically continues to perform as anticipated and will make appropriate calls for reserves under GAAP. It's really tough to give any specific guidance on that other than we're going to be mindful of the macros, continue to watch the portfolio, and that prime revolver targeting we do, tends to add a high-level stability.

因此，就儲備的預期而言，我們將繼續關注宏觀。我們將運行多種方案，然後確保資產負債表、投資組合具體繼續按預期運行，並將根據 GAAP 對準備金進行適當的調用。除了我們要注意宏觀、繼續關注投資組合以及我們所做的主要左輪手槍目標往往會增加高水平的穩定性之外，很難給出任何具體的指導。

As matter of fact one other point that may be useful not specific to reserves but rather charge-offs, you have to go all the way back to the second quarter of 2011 to see charge-offs that -- charge-off rates that is north of 4%. So we're seeing great stability this year, and we expect it to be stable next year as well.

事實上，另一點可能對儲備金而不是沖銷有用，你必須一直追溯到 2011 年第二季度才能看到沖銷——北方的沖銷率4%。所以我們今年看到了很大的穩定性，我們預計明年也會保持穩定。

Our next question will come from Betsy Graseck with Morgan Stanley.

我們的下一個問題將來自摩根士丹利的 Betsy Graseck。

I just wanted to see if I could get you to unpack your statement on no seismic changes in 2023. Maybe we could speak a little bit about how you're thinking. And I know you just detailed a little bit, but how you're thinking about how the loan yield should traject. I know in the slide deck, you called out that the loan yield was driven by prime obviously, but with a partial offset from higher promotional mix and the timing of pricing changes. Could you help us understand how that works? How much the promo mix and the timing impacted loan yields and how you're thinking about that trajecting as we continue to go through a Fed rate hike period here?

我只是想看看我能否讓你解開你關於 2023 年沒有地震變化的聲明。也許我們可以談談你的想法。我知道你只是詳細說明了一點，但你是如何考慮貸款收益率應該如何變化的。我知道在幻燈片中，您提到貸款收益率顯然是由主要推動的，但部分抵消了更高的促銷組合和定價變化的時機。你能幫助我們了解它是如何工作的嗎？促銷組合和時機對貸款收益率的影響有多大，以及當我們繼續在這裡經歷美聯儲加息期時，您如何看待這種軌跡？

Okay. Yes. So there's a lot there. And as you know, it's fairly complex, Betsy, but I'll do my best to create some transparency here. So -- and let me start with the loan yields. So 80% of our book is floating rate of the asset side. So as the Fed increases, that creates the opportunity to move the contract rate up with the Fed changes. And correspondingly, if the Fed were to come down, the contract rate would come down. So what we're seeing there is in a rising rate environment, we still expect 3 to 5 basis points of yield improvement.

好的。是的。所以那裡有很多。如你所知，這相當複雜，Betsy，但我會盡我所能在這裡創造一些透明度。所以 - 讓我從貸款收益率開始。所以我們賬面的80%是資產方的浮動利率。因此，隨著美聯儲加息，這就創造了隨著美聯儲變化而上調合約利率的機會。相應地，如果美聯儲降息，合約利率也會下降。因此，在利率上升的環境中，我們仍然預計收益率會提高 3 到 5 個基點。

So net interest margin yield improvement over a 12-month period. So we saw significant increases in September. It looks like based on the forward curve, there's another maybe as much as 125 basis points of further Fed action this year, and then next year depending on the economy, there could be a couple more or there'll be a pause. I don't think there will be much in the way of Fed rate reductions until maybe as late as '24. So what that means is we're going to get the benefit from the Fed rate increases into the portfolio.

因此，淨息差收益率在 12 個月內有所改善。因此，我們在 9 月份看到了顯著增長。看起來，根據遠期曲線，今年美聯儲可能會進一步採取多達 125 個基點的行動，然後根據經濟情況，明年可能還會有更多或暫停。我認為直到 24 年美聯儲降息的方式不會太多。因此，這意味著我們將從美聯儲加息中受益於投資組合。

We're seeing deposit pricing continue to go up. We haven't been a price leader on that. Certainly, we've been a follower to make sure we have a positive value proposition for our customer base.

我們看到存款價格繼續上漲。在這方面，我們不是價格領先者。當然，我們一直是追隨者，以確保我們為客戶群提供積極的價值主張。

And then the next question would be around betas and what do you think about betas. So I'm going to try to address that right now. So as there's greater disparity between our rates from a deposit standpoint and the brick-and-mortar banks, it creates plenty of opportunity for us to market into those customers and they'll find an attractive value proposition, which should help dampen the impact of further rate increases.

然後下一個問題是關於 beta 的，你對 beta 有什麼看法。所以我現在要嘗試解決這個問題。因此，從存款的角度來看，我們的利率與實體銀行之間存在更大的差異，這為我們向這些客戶進行營銷創造了大量機會，他們會找到一個有吸引力的價值主張，這應該有助於抑制進一步加息。

So we do think the combination of the Fed increases, us being able to manage the deposit book, but in a rising rate environment, stability from a credit standpoint, but normalization, which will create a bit of incremental interest reversals impacting net interest margin. And then ultimately, the pricing decisions we're going to make where we have that flexibility to make sure we're making good decisions for our customers. and for our shareholders. So ultimately, it nets out that we expect relative stability over net interest margin through '23.

因此，我們確實認為美聯儲加息的組合，我們能夠管理存款簿，但在利率上升的環境中，從信貸的角度來看，穩定，但正常化，這將產生一些影響淨息差的增量利息逆轉。然後最終，我們將在具有靈活性的情況下做出定價決策，以確保我們為客戶做出正確的決策。和我們的股東。因此，最終，我們預計到 23 年的淨息差相對穩定。

Okay. Got it. I appreciate that. My follow-up has to do with the buyback discussion that we had earlier. And I know you mentioned that you're hopeful it can resume in 4Q. Would you expect to put out an 8-K that indicates that you can now resume buybacks? Or would we hear about buybacks only after you started, there's no obligation to put a notification into the market that you can resume.

好的。知道了。我很感激。我的後續行動與我們之前的回購討論有關。我知道你提到你希望它可以在第四季度恢復。您是否期望發布 8-K 表明您現在可以恢復回購？或者我們是否會在您開始後才聽說回購，沒有義務向市場發布您可以恢復的通知。

Correct. There isn't an obligation, but we would likely put an 8-K out.

正確的。沒有義務，但我們可能會放出 8-K。

Okay. No obligation, but you would likely do it . Okay.

好的。沒有義務，但您可能會這樣做。好的。

Our next question will come from Robert Napoli with William Blair.

我們的下一個問題將來自 Robert Napoli 和 William Blair。

So just following up on -- it was good to hear resuming the buybacks. I guess that would suggest that the review is behind you. But would you expect them to get your -- to go towards your 10.5% target capital ratio? And over what time frame would you like to do that? Or what kind of a buffer do you want above that 10.5%?

所以只是跟進 - 很高興聽到恢復回購。我想這表明審查落後於你。但是你會期望他們讓你的 - 達到你 10.5% 的目標資本比率嗎？你想在什麼時間範圍內這樣做？或者你想要什麼樣的緩沖超過 10.5%？

Yes. Bob, thanks for the question. I just want to be very specific about something you said. And our comments have consistently been here on this call that we hope to resume the buyback in the fourth quarter. So we say that because we're hopeful, but there's -- ultimately, it will be a decision that the Board helps with.

是的。鮑勃，謝謝你的問題。我只想對你所說的非常具體。我們的評論一直在這裡，我們希望在第四季度恢復回購。所以我們這麼說是因為我們充滿希望，但最終，這將是董事會幫助做出的決定。

So in terms of the 10.5% target, so we've been well north of that for quite some time, there's -- we have said that we want to step towards that, we intend to step towards that. So certainly, the earnings power that the firm has generated and the buybacks as well as dividends, have impacted our ability to get there. So we're going to step towards that throughout '23 and '24. What we said previously is we hope to be around the 10.5% target, sometime in '24 or '25.

因此，就 10.5% 的目標而言，我們已經遠離該目標已經有一段時間了，我們已經說過我們想要朝著這個目標邁進，我們打算朝著那個目標邁進。因此，可以肯定的是，公司產生的盈利能力以及回購和股息都影響了我們實現目標的能力。因此，我們將在 23 年和 24 年期間朝著這一目標邁進。我們之前所說的是，我們希望在 24 或 25 年的某個時間達到 10.5% 的目標。

And the follow-up, just on normalization of credit losses. As we think about normalized credit losses, looking back over history, credit cards, high 3s, I guess, or mid-3s to high 3s; personal loans in the 4% range. Is that the way we should think now? Is there anything that's changed? Should we continue to think about normalized credit losses in that kind of an area?

而後續，只是關於信用損失的正常化。當我們考慮標準化的信用損失時，回顧歷史，信用卡，我猜是高 3 分，或者中 3 分到高 3 分；個人貸款在 4% 範圍內。我們現在應該這樣想嗎？有什麼改變嗎？我們是否應該繼續考慮這類領域的標準化信用損失？

Yes. Yes. So I would put 2 points out there. First, I would take a look at the historical trends and use that and make certain judgments. The other item here, I'm going to say is a matter of judgment. But certainly, I have a belief that credit cards have increased in the payment priority because folks can access the digital economy without a credit card, some folks with a debit card, but most specifically around a credit card. So that, I believe, helps prioritize the primary credit card among many other debt obligations that a consumer has. So could that impact the relative charge-off rates versus the historical trend? My belief is yes, but your judgment is what I'd say you should apply when you're working through your forward-looking outlook.

是的。是的。所以我會放2分。首先，我會看一下歷史趨勢並使用它並做出一定的判斷。我要說的另一項是判斷問題。但可以肯定的是，我相信信用卡的支付優先級有所提高，因為人們可以在沒有信用卡的情況下訪問數字經濟，有些人可以使用借記卡，但尤其是在信用卡周圍。因此，我相信，這有助於在消費者擁有的許多其他債務義務中優先考慮主信用卡。那麼這會影響相對沖銷率與歷史趨勢的關係嗎？我的信念是肯定的，但你的判斷是我想說的，當你通過你的前瞻性展望工作時應該應用你的判斷。

Our next question will come from Don Fandetti with Wells Fargo.

我們的下一個問題將來自富國銀行的 Don Fandetti。

John, personal loan growth was pretty strong this quarter. Just wanted to get your thoughts on the outlook there and growth. And also any updates on your home equity lending initiative?

約翰，本季度個人貸款增長相當強勁。只是想了解您對那裡的前景和增長的看法。還有關於您的房屋淨值貸款計劃的任何更新嗎？

Yes. Yes, thanks for the question, Don. So certainly, nice growth there. On the personal loan front, you go back in a few quarters, and it was flat. And we said that it was flat to down actually if you go back 3 or 4 quarters as a result of some underwriting decisions we took. We've been -- we've seen strength in the underwriting for that product, and it's given us greater confidence to be able to market that product, and there's been a high level of appeal to it. So we'll continue to be mindful of the product in the face of a tougher economic condition. But certainly, we feel like it's a good product and it's meeting customer needs, and that's helped drive the growth.

是的。是的，謝謝你的問題，唐。所以當然，那裡的增長很好。在個人貸款方面，你過幾個季度就回去了，結果是平的。我們說，由於我們做出的一些承保決定，如果你回到 3 或 4 個季度，實際上它是持平的。我們一直 - 我們已經看到該產品的承保實力，這讓我們更有信心能夠推銷該產品，並且對該產品具有很高的吸引力。因此，面對更嚴峻的經濟狀況，我們將繼續關注該產品。但可以肯定的是，我們覺得它是一個很好的產品，它滿足了客戶的需求，這有助於推動增長。

In terms of kind of forward-looking guidance, I'm not going to start to do that at a product level, all I would do is ensure that I was wrong more often. But if I go to the kind of the home equity loan, that's portfolio is relatively small. So it's actually not moving the dial at this point from an earnings standpoint. But what we've seen is a great level of interest in the second lien product, and we're also originating a first lien product as well. So both products are performing well and nice appeal.

就前瞻性指導而言，我不會在產品層面開始這樣做，我要做的就是確保我更經常地犯錯。但如果我去那種房屋淨值貸款，那它的投資組合相對較小。因此，從收益的角度來看，此時它實際上並沒有改變錶盤。但我們看到的是對第二留置權產品的極大興趣，而且我們也在開發第一留置權產品。因此，這兩種產品都表現良好且具有吸引力。

Our next question will come from Mihir Bhatia with Bank of America.

我們的下一個問題將來自美國銀行的 Mihir Bhatia。

Maybe I just wanted to start with -- if you just take your guidance for NIM and loan growth, and I think that works out about -- effectively works out of fourth quarter NIM of at least 11.2% and $3 billion plus NII. Is that the right way to think about it and frame the exit rate for NIM? And then should NII just increase from there given loan growth and your comments about NIM stability. Am I thinking of that correctly?

也許我只是想開始 - 如果你只是接受你對 NIM 和貸款增長的指導，我認為這很有效 - 第四季度 NIM 至少為 11.2% 和 30 億美元加上 NII。這是思考和確定 NIM 退出率的正確方法嗎？然後考慮到貸款增長和您對 NIM 穩定性的評論，NII 是否應該從那裡增加。我想對了嗎？

Yes. So Mihir, thanks for the question. And I certainly appreciate the specificity. What I've said about NIM is probably as far as I'm going to go here on this call. We do expect sequential improvement, as I said. Beyond that, it will be tough to give specific details.

是的。所以米希爾，謝謝你的問題。我當然很欣賞這種特殊性。我所說的關於 NIM 的內容可能就是我將在這次電話會議上到這裡的內容。正如我所說，我們確實期望連續改進。除此之外，很難提供具體細節。

Okay. And then just wanted to ask about losses normalizing. A little previously, you had talked about it being in 2H '23 is when we get to a more normalized loss rate. But I think there was talk that it could maybe push into even 2024 later. Any update on that?

好的。然後只是想問一下損失正常化。之前，您曾談到它在 2H '23 中是我們達到更標準化的損失率的時候。但我認為有傳言說它可能會推遲到 2024 年。有什麼更新嗎？

Yes. So normalization through '23 and the macro environment will help us determine whether it pushes '23 into '24. But where we're sitting today, we're very pleased with the portfolio performance and the only surprise is, frankly, the pace of normalization on the upper end is a little slower than we expected, which helped drive the improved guidance that we gave on the charge-off rate.

是的。因此，通過 23 年和宏觀環境進行標準化將幫助我們確定它是否將 23 年推入 24 年。但我們今天所處的位置，我們對投資組合的表現感到非常滿意，坦率地說，唯一令人驚訝的是，高端的正常化步伐比我們預期的要慢一些，這有助於推動我們提供的改進指導關於沖銷率。

Our next question will come from Rick Shane with JPMorgan.

我們的下一個問題將來自摩根大通的 Rick Shane。

Look, your customer base really represents a great sample of the domestic population. I'm curious when you look at spending on a category level basis, if there's anything that you're seeing that is a cause for concern, not asking are people spending more of the pump that's obvious with the inflationary pressures. But are there categories where you're seeing people use their cards that are signals for something we should be thinking about?

看，您的客戶群確實代表了國內人口的很大一部分。我很好奇，當您在類別級別的基礎上查看支出時，如果您看到有什麼值得關注的事情，而不是問人們是否會花費更多的錢，這在通脹壓力下是顯而易見的。但是，您是否看到人們使用他們的卡片作為我們應該考慮的事情的信號的類別？

Yes. Great question. So our base probably does skew a little upwards, so more in the prime, but we're seeing continued strength in sales in October. So I'd say, year-over-year in the low teens. Some of the trends you've heard about were picking up. So consumer durables softening in terms of year-over-year. But again, our households, by and large, they have the liquidity to absorb inflation. It causes some pain, and we'll switch categories, we'll downgrade within a category. But I would say travel is coming off some of the very, very strong growth we saw over the summer. So a little less strength in travel and consumer durables are probably at the key trend.

是的。好問題。所以我們的基數可能確實有點向上傾斜，所以在黃金時期更多，但我們看到 10 月份的銷售持續強勁。所以我會說，在青少年時期，年復一年。您聽說過的一些趨勢正在回升。因此，耐用消費品同比疲軟。但同樣，我們的家庭，總的來說，他們有吸收通貨膨脹的流動性。它會引起一些痛苦，我們將切換類別，我們將在一個類別內降級。但我想說，旅行正在擺脫我們在夏天看到的一些非常非常強勁的增長。因此，旅行和耐用消費品的實力減弱可能是主要趨勢。

Our next question will come from Bill Carcache with Wolfe Research.

我們的下一個問題將來自 Wolfe Research 的 Bill Carcache。

You mentioned that, that operating conditions are consistent with late cycle expansion historically. Fed hiking cycles have typically ended in slowing loan growth, but you're already exceptionally strong, loan growth seems to be accelerating, and certainly, the whole industry is enjoying strong growth. Can you share any thoughts around how you'd expect the late cycle expansion to end? And I'll just layer in my follow-up now. And if you can give any commentary around what level of unemployment is implicit in your reserve rate and what a change in unemployment would mean for the reserve rate, that would be very helpful?

您提到過，運營條件與歷史上的後期週期擴張一致。美聯儲加息週期通常以放慢貸款增長而告終，但你已經異常強勁，貸款增長似乎正在加速，當然，整個行業都在享受強勁增長。你能分享一下你對後期週期擴張如何結束的看法嗎？我現在將在我的後續工作中進行分層。如果你能就準備金率中隱含的失業率水平以及失業率的變化對準備金率意味著什麼發表評論，那會很有幫助嗎？

Yes. So great question. So I mean, in terms of late cycle, I think back pre-pandemic, we talked about it being linked cycle for a couple of years, and then it ended in a way that I think no one expected. And so that's part of why we tend to use a through-the-cycle loss rate and look to be disciplined in our credit management. So while I would agree it's not a time probably to be widening credit, we're seeing a lot of benefits from the investments in advanced analytics, in particular, around the personal loan product and on the card side, where the growth -- we're achieving the growth while swapping in and swapping out different populations.

是的。這麼好的問題。所以我的意思是，就晚期週期而言，我回想起大流行前，我們談到它與週期聯繫了幾年，然後它以一種我認為沒有人預料到的方式結束。這就是為什麼我們傾向於使用整個週期損失率並希望在我們的信用管理中受到紀律處分的部分原因。因此，雖然我同意現在可能不是擴大信貸的時候，但我們從高級分析方面的投資中看到了很多好處，特別是在個人貸款產品和信用卡方面，增長——我們'在換入和換出不同人群的同時實現增長。

And again, with a policy that I think is appropriate for late cycle. And it builds on some of the really strong new account production we had in 2021 as those accounts mature. So again, we'll continue to look at it, both in terms of our portfolio actions as well as new account originations across all of our products, but we feel good about the credit approach and just the traction our products are getting in the marketplace. And I'll pass it to John for Part 2.

再次，我認為適用於後期週期的政策。隨著這些賬戶的成熟，它建立在我們在 2021 年擁有的一些真正強大的新賬戶生產之上。因此，我們將繼續關注我們的投資組合行動以及我們所有產品的新賬戶發起，但我們對信貸方法以及我們的產品在市場上獲得的吸引力感覺良好.我會將它傳遞給 John 用於第 2 部分。

Yes. Bill. And in terms of kind of fundamental assumptions for kind of reserve setting. So as I said earlier, we used a number of different scenarios, which included kind of nonrecession scenario as well as recessionary scenario. The recessionary scenario that we modeled. We certainly didn't wait as much as the nonrecession and also the view in terms of the unemployment rate, there's pretty wide range right now, right? So some forecasted going north of 6% in a very, what I'll say, a dark scenario.

是的。賬單。就儲備設定的基本假設而言。正如我之前所說，我們使用了許多不同的情景，包括非衰退情景和衰退情景。我們模擬的衰退情景。我們當然沒有像非經濟衰退那樣等待，也沒有對失業率的看法，現在範圍很廣，對吧？因此，一些人預測在一個非常黑暗的情況下會超過 6%。

The more optimistic scenario is 4%. And so we looked at a complete range of scenarios and weighted it more towards stability with increasing unemployment. GDP, not as big a driver, but certainly an indication for the economy. Today, we're at about 1%, and in 2023 in a recessionary scenario, there would be mild contraction, not deep contraction. So we think, overall, there will be general stability despite a tougher macro.

更樂觀的情況是 4%。因此，我們研究了一系列完整的情景，並隨著失業率的增加將其更多地加權為穩定性。 GDP 不是一個重要的驅動因素，但肯定是經濟的一個指標。今天，我們的增長率約為 1%，到 2023 年，在經濟衰退的情況下，將會出現溫和收縮，而不是深度收縮。因此，我們認為，總體而言，儘管宏觀形勢更為嚴峻，但總體上仍將保持穩定。

Our next question comes from Kevin Barker with Piper Sandler.

我們的下一個問題來自 Kevin Barker 和 Piper Sandler。

Thank you concerning the comments regarding unemployment rate, maybe some slight tightening on underwriting. That being said, are you seeing any minor shifts in consumer spending or payment patterns that may indicate certain pockets of stress, whether it's the lower end of prime or other parts or maybe even certain vintages of customers that are on your books?

感謝您對有關失業率的評論，可能對承保略有收緊。話雖如此，您是否看到消費者支出或支付模式的任何微小變化可能表明某些壓力，無論是黃金價格的低端或其他部分，甚至可能是您賬面上的某些年份的客戶？

Yes. I mean all the vintages are performing well. As John said, I think we're seeing the normalization occur faster and pretty close to fully normalized for the lower end of prime. While the payment rate has softened a bit and come down by about 70 basis points, it remains 400 basis points higher than 2019 levels. And so I think that speaks to the fact that there's still very strong employment market out there, people can find jobs, can find extra hours. And so a good amount of liquidity that is supporting the debt burden for our segment.

是的。我的意思是所有年份都表現良好。正如約翰所說，我認為我們看到標準化發生得更快，並且非常接近於素數下限的完全標準化。雖然支付率有所走軟並下降了約 70 個基點，但仍比 2019 年的水平高出 400 個基點。所以我認為這說明就業市場仍然非常強勁，人們可以找到工作，可以找到額外的工作時間。因此，大量的流動性支持了我們部門的債務負擔。

Okay. And then, I know it's a fluid situation, but the student debt repayment is supposed to restart here maybe early next year who knows, given what's happening with the fighting in the courts, but do you expect any incremental impact to credit with a lot of student debt payments. Obviously, there's the -- forgiveness is obviously a credit positive, but is there something that you could see as a potential headwind as student debt repayments restart here potentially in January?

好的。然後，我知道這是一個不穩定的情況，但是學生債務的償還應該在明年初重新開始學生債務支付。顯然，寬恕顯然是對信用的積極影響，但是隨著學生債務償還可能在 1 月份在這裡重新開始，您是否可以將其視為潛在的不利因素？

Not necessarily. We've watched it closely. I mean I think we have experienced an elevated payment rate, which has a dampening impact on loan growth as students have put more of their payments towards their private student loans. But we don't see anything that would have a significant impact on credit.

不必要。我們已經仔細觀察過了。我的意思是，我認為我們的還款率有所提高，這對貸款增長產生了抑製作用，因為學生將更多的付款用於私人學生貸款。但我們看不到任何會對信貸產生重大影響的事情。

Our next question will come from Mark DeVries with Barclays.

我們的下一個問題將來自 Mark DeVries 和 Barclays。

How should we think about how you manage expense discipline, if we start to see some revenue and credit weakness if the economy softens here?

如果經濟疲軟，如果我們開始看到一些收入和信貸疲軟，我們應該如何考慮如何管理費用紀律？

Yes. I would just simply say that we will take a look at the opportunities we have in front of us, and we'll make what I hope will be great long-term decisions for our shareholders. And we're going to be very, very mindful around discretionary spending and around employment decisions. So overall, we hope we're good stewards of the company.

是的。我只想說，我們將看看擺在我們面前的機會，我們將做出我希望對我們的股東來說是偉大的長期決定。我們將非常非常注意可自由支配的支出和就業決策。所以總的來說，我們希望我們是公司的好管家。

Okay. Got it. And then just given where the rewards cost has trended so far this year in the guidance, I think, you said it was 2 basis points but guidance is 2% to 4%. Is it right to assume that 4Q is a relatively big quarter for expenses? Maybe you've got more of the 5% categories this quarter.

好的。知道了。然後只是考慮到今年到目前為止獎勵成本在指導中的趨勢，我認為，你說這是 2 個基點，但指導是 2% 到 4%。假設第四季度是支出相對較大的季度是否正確？也許本季度你有更多的 5% 類別。

Yes. I wouldn't necessarily assume that what the point of the guidance between 2% and 4% is, that's what we had said previously, still within the range, and we wanted to keep it within the range. So that 2% to 4% is something that we've seen historically, and to an extent, managed too, and we'll continue to do that. So I wouldn't lean on any particular information to assume the fourth quarter is going to be extraordinarily high or low.

是的。我不一定會假設 2% 和 4% 之間的指導點是什麼，這就是我們之前所說的，仍在該範圍內，我們希望將其保持在該範圍內。所以 2% 到 4% 是我們在歷史上看到的，並且在一定程度上也得到了管理，我們將繼續這樣做。因此，我不會依賴任何特定信息來假設第四季度會非常高或非常低。

Our next question will come from Bill Ryan with Seaport Research Partners.

我們的下一個問題將來自 Seaport Research Partners 的 Bill Ryan。

A couple of quick questions. Just following up on the personal loans business. Historically, it's been heavily focused on your credit card base. And I was just wondering if that's still the case. And you also had, I'd say, very, very strong credit checks in that business, paying off creditors directly. Has anything changed there as well? .

幾個快速的問題。只是跟進個人貸款業務。從歷史上看，它一直非常關注您的信用卡基礎。我只是想知道情況是否仍然如此。我想說的是，你在該業務中也有非常非常強大的信用檢查，直接償還債權人。那裡也有什麼變化嗎？ .

No. So I would say it's pretty balanced in terms of cross-sold to the card base versus broad market. Probably the biggest change has been just the continued advancement in analytics and the underwriting approach there. but very, very conservative. So a lot of employment verification, et cetera, heavily manual processes just to make sure we get it right because as opposed to the card business where you can manage credit as you go, you get one shot in personal loans. But again, I would say that the performance remains very, very strong there and a lot of it thanks to that disciplined approach.

不。所以我會說它在交叉銷售到卡基礎與廣泛市場方面非常平衡。可能最大的變化只是分析和承保方法的持續進步。但非常非常保守。因此，為了確保我們做對了，大量的就業驗證等等，大量的手動流程，因為與您可以隨時管理信用的信用卡業務相反，您可以獲得一次個人貸款。但是，我要再說一次，那裡的表現仍然非常非常強勁，這在很大程度上要歸功於這種紀律嚴明的方法。

Okay. And just one follow-up on the promotional balances, that's kind of been brought up on the card book for the last several quarters. Is it still increasing as a percentage of the overall card portfolio? Or is it kind of stabilized and maybe give us some historical perspective of where it stands to recent history? .

好的。只有一個關於促銷餘額的後續行動，在過去的幾個季度中，這在卡片簿上有所提及。它在整個卡組合中的百分比是否仍在增加？或者它是不是有點穩定，也許會給我們一些歷史視角來了解它在近代歷史中的地位？ .

Yes. It's stabilized in the third quarter, basically, approach stabilization into the second quarter and it's very close to where it has been historically.

是的。它在第三季度趨於穩定，基本上，在第二季度趨於穩定，非常接近歷史水平。

Our next question will come from Dominick Gabriele with Oppenheimer.

我們的下一個問題將來自 Dominick Gabriele 和 Oppenheimer。

Throughout the call and throughout other calls, you've kind of laid out your playbook and pieces in particular on the credit side for a slowing economy. But maybe, Roger, you can just provide us with a more holistic idea of what discover would change across various pieces of the businesses to protect profitability in a tougher economic environment? And then I just have a follow-up.

在整個電話會議和其他電話會議中，您已經制定了您的劇本和部分，特別是在經濟放緩的信貸方面。但也許，羅傑，您可以為我們提供一個更全面的想法，即在更嚴峻的經濟環境中，哪些發現會改變各個業務部門以保護盈利能力？然後我有一個跟進。

Yes. I'd start by saying we don't necessarily optimize on protecting profitability on a quarter-by-quarter basis. We focus on sort of delivering long-term value to the shareholders. And I think as I've been in this business a while, people who just totally got marketing in a downturn, miss out on what usually turn out to be some of the most profitable vintages. .

是的。我首先要說的是，我們不一定會按季度優化保護盈利能力。我們專注於為股東提供長期價值。而且我認為，當我從事這項業務已有一段時間時，那些在經濟低迷時期完全進行營銷的人會錯過通常被證明是最賺錢的年份。 .

And so yes, you cut marketing mainly because as you tighten the credit box, there are fewer people to market, too. But I think we try and operate our company almost like we're always in a recession, always be conserved on credit, always be tied on expenses, there's more you can do, especially around discretionary items. But that ability to keep momentum through a downturn has really distinguished us in previous cycles, and we would try and do that again.

所以是的，你削減營銷主要是因為當你收緊信用額度時，市場營銷的人也會減少。但我認為我們嘗試和經營我們的公司幾乎就像我們總是處於經濟衰退中一樣，始終保持信用，始終與費用掛鉤，您可以做更多事情，尤其是在可自由支配的項目方面。但這種在低迷時期保持勢頭的能力在之前的周期中確實讓我們與眾不同，我們會再次嘗試這樣做。

Okay. Great. And I think it'd be really helpful to understand what your -- both of your views are on the normalization of the personal loan portfolio net charge-offs versus the credit card portfolio. Consensus has such a huge ramp on the personal loan side versus credit cards for '23 and -- not looking for specific guidance, but is there any reason why there would be such a difference in faster normalization on the personal loan side versus credit card as far as basis point movement as a percentage of loans?

好的。偉大的。而且我認為了解您對個人貸款組合淨沖銷與信用卡組合的正常化的看法會非常有幫助。共識在 23 年個人貸款方面與信用卡相比有如此巨大的坡度，並且 - 不是在尋找具體指導，但有什麼理由說明個人貸款方面與信用卡在更快的正常化方面會有如此大的差異嗎？至於基點變動佔貸款的百分比？

Yes. I mean we haven't put out product-by-product guidance. But I would say that given how we underwrite the personal loans, I'm not sure why our portfolio would jump much faster than the card book. In general, we have a higher FICO for the personal loans business. They do tend to be a little more volatile than card in a recession. But I wouldn't -- that isn't necessarily behavior I would expect.

是的。我的意思是，我們還沒有發布逐個產品的指導。但我想說，鑑於我們如何承銷個人貸款，我不確定為什麼我們的投資組合會比卡片簿跳得快得多。一般來說，我們對個人貸款業務的 FICO 較高。在經濟衰退中，它們確實往往比卡片更不穩定。但我不會——這不一定是我所期望的行為。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

All right. Well, thank you, everyone, for joining us. And thank you, Katie. And if there's any additional follow-ups, please reach out to the IR team. We'll be here and looking forward to speaking with you. Thanks, and have a great day. Thank you.

好的。好吧，謝謝大家加入我們。謝謝你，凱蒂。如果有任何其他後續行動，請聯繫 IR 團隊。我們會在這裡，期待與您交談。謝謝，祝你有美好的一天。謝謝你。

Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's event. You may now disconnect.

謝謝你。女士們，先生們，今天的活動到此結束。您現在可以斷開連接。