發現金融 (DFS) 2022 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Good morning. My name is Katie, and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the Second Quarter 2022 Discover Financial Services Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) Thank you.

早上好。我叫凱蒂，今天我將成為您的會議接線員。在這個時候，我想歡迎大家參加 2022 年第二季度發現金融服務收益電話會議。 （操作員說明）謝謝。

I will now turn the call over to Mr. Eric Wasserstrom, Head of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

我現在將把電話轉給投資者關係主管 Eric Wasserstrom 先生。請繼續。

Thank you, Katie, and welcome, everyone, to this morning's call. I'll begin on Slide 2 of our earnings presentation, which you can find in the financial section of our Investor Relations website, investorrelations.discover.com.

謝謝你，凱蒂，歡迎大家參加今天上午的電話會議。我將從我們收益報告的幻燈片 2 開始，您可以在我們的投資者關係網站investorrelations.discover.com 的財務部分找到該幻燈片。

Our discussion today contains certain forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially. Please refer to our notices regarding forward-looking statements that appear in our second quarter earnings press release and presentation.

我們今天的討論包含某些受風險和不確定性影響的前瞻性陳述，這些風險和不確定性可能導致實際結果出現重大差異。請參閱我們關於出現在我們第二季度收益新聞稿和演示文稿中的前瞻性陳述的通知。

Our call today will include remarks from our CEO, Roger Hochschild; and John Greene, our Chief Financial Officer. After we conclude our formal comments, there will be time for a question-and-answer session. During the Q&A session, you'll be permitted to ask 1 question followed by 1 follow-up question. After a follow-up question, please return to the queue.

我們今天的電話會議將包括我們的首席執行官 Roger Hochschild 的講話；和我們的首席財務官 John Greene。在我們結束正式評論後，將有時間進行問答環節。在問答環節，您將被允許提出 1 個問題，然後是 1 個後續問題。有後續問題後，請返回隊列。

Now it's my pleasure to turn the call over to Roger.

現在我很高興將電話轉給羅傑。

Thanks, Eric, and thanks to our listeners for joining today's call. I'm very pleased with our results this quarter. We generated robust revenue growth and strong earnings while advancing several strategic initiatives. This solid performance reflects the strength of our integrated digital banking and payments model and our focus on managing the business while investing for growth amidst an increasingly fluid macroeconomic backdrop.

謝謝 Eric，也感謝我們的聽眾加入今天的電話會議。我對本季度的業績感到非常滿意。在推進多項戰略舉措的同時，我們實現了強勁的收入增長和強勁的收益。這種穩健的表現反映了我們集成的數字銀行和支付模式的實力，以及我們在不斷變化的宏觀經濟背景下專注於管理業務，同時投資以實現增長。

Let's turn to the summary on Slide 3. For the second quarter, we reported net income of $1.1 billion after tax or $3.96 per share. Our operating metrics in the second quarter remained very strong. Loan growth increased by 13% from the prior year, driven by a combination of higher sales and strong new account growth. And our asset quality remains solid across all products, reflecting our focus on prime lending and our approach to underwriting and credit management.

讓我們看一下幻燈片 3 的摘要。第二季度，我們報告的稅後淨收入為 11 億美元或每股 3.96 美元。我們第二季度的運營指標仍然非常強勁。受銷售額增長和新賬戶強勁增長的共同推動，貸款增長較上年增長 13%。我們所有產品的資產質量都保持穩定，這反映了我們對優質貸款的關注以及我們的承銷和信貸管理方法。

We also advanced several strategic priorities in the quarter. In our Payment Services segment, we continued to expand our global acceptance through new partnerships. In June, we announced a network alliance in Italy with Bancomat, one of Europe's largest payment networks. This should provide our customers with access to merchants in Italy through Bancomat's extensive acquirer relationships. This partnership represents a significant advancement in our acceptance across Western Europe and we remain committed to expanding our international merchant coverage.

我們還在本季度提出了幾個戰略重點。在我們的支付服務部門，我們繼續通過新的合作夥伴關係擴大我們的全球接受度。 6 月，我們宣佈在意大利與歐洲最大的支付網絡之一 Bancomat 建立網絡聯盟。這應該為我們的客戶提供通過 Bancomat 廣泛的收單方關係接觸意大利商家的機會。這種夥伴關係代表了我們在整個西歐接受度的重大進步，我們將繼續致力於擴大我們的國際商戶覆蓋範圍。

In our Digital Banking segment, our combination of industry-leading customer service and compelling products continues to differentiate us in the marketplace. We were recently awarded the highest ranking in customer satisfaction by J.D. Power among mobile credit card apps and websites. We also achieved J.D. Power's top customer satisfaction in checking accounts for direct retail banks. This recognition underscores our customer service model, which, combined with our compelling cashback rewards and no-fee products, to create a value proposition that we believe others will struggle to match. For this reason, we're confident that we are well positioned to generate substantial growth and shareholder value over the long term.

在我們的數字銀行部門，我們將行業領先的客戶服務和引人注目的產品相結合，繼續使我們在市場上脫穎而出。我們最近被 J.D. Power 評為移動信用卡應用程序和網站中客戶滿意度最高的排名。我們還在直接零售銀行的支票賬戶中實現了 J.D. Power 的最高客戶滿意度。這種認可強調了我們的客戶服務模式，結合我們引人注目的現金返還獎勵和免費產品，創造了一個我們相信其他人難以匹敵的價值主張。出於這個原因，我們相信我們有能力在長期內產生可觀的增長和股東價值。

Notwithstanding our strong performance, we continue to closely monitor today's evolving economic environment. Slide 4 provides some views on the current macro conditions. Measures of inflation remain persistently high and the Federal Reserve has signaled its intent to address this through restrictive monetary policy. Our business model has somewhat of a natural hedge against inflation as higher expenses are largely offset by the contribution inflation makes to our sales volumes. And because our balance sheet is moderately asset sensitive, rate hikes improve our outlook for spread income despite driving higher funding costs.

儘管我們表現強勁，但我們繼續密切關注當今不斷變化的經濟環境。幻燈片 4 提供了對當前宏觀狀況的一些看法。通脹指標持續居高不下，美聯儲已表示有意通過限制性貨幣政策解決這一問題。我們的商業模式在一定程度上可以對沖通脹，因為較高的費用在很大程度上被通脹對我們銷量的貢獻所抵消。而且由於我們的資產負債表對資產較為敏感，加息改善了我們對利差收入的前景，儘管會推高融資成本。

Perhaps more significantly, tighter monetary policy may have raised the risk of an economic recession, but behavior and trends from our consumer loan portfolio currently do not suggest that a downturn is imminent. Our credit metrics remain strong and sales are robust, even as our customers maintain high payment rates. Similarly, most labor market measures indicate employment conditions remain broadly supportive of consumer financial health and credit performance.

或許更重要的是，收緊貨幣政策可能增加了經濟衰退的風險，但我們消費貸款組合的行為和趨勢目前並不表明經濟衰退迫在眉睫。即使我們的客戶保持高支付率，我們的信用指標仍然強勁，銷售強勁。同樣，大多數勞動力市場指標表明，就業條件仍然廣泛支持消費者財務健康和信貸表現。

Nonetheless, should there be changes in macroeconomic conditions, we will make the appropriate adjustments. Our through-the-cycle underwriting considers all stages of a credit cycle including downturns. And our history of conservative credit management positions us well for any future periods of economic stress. Our actions during the recent pandemic are a good example of how nimbly we can respond to changing circumstances.

但是，如果宏觀經濟形勢發生變化，我們會做出適當的調整。我們的全週期承保考慮了信貸週期的所有階段，包括低迷時期。我們保守信用管理的歷史使我們能夠很好地應對未來的任何經濟壓力時期。我們在最近的大流行期間採取的行動很好地說明了我們能夠靈活應對不斷變化的情況。

We also maintain a strong balance sheet and capital position. Our current level of common equity tier 1 is 14.2%, well above our internal target and regulatory minimums. And as John will detail, our reserves capture our estimate of losses over the expected life of our loan portfolio. This brings me to 1 topic about which we want to make you aware.

我們還保持強勁的資產負債表和資本狀況。我們目前的一級普通股比例為 14.2%，遠高於我們的內部目標和監管最低標準。正如約翰將詳述的那樣，我們的準備金反映了我們對貸款組合預期壽命內損失的估計。這讓我想到了一個我們想讓你知道的話題。

As we addressed in our press release, we are temporarily suspending our share repurchase program in light of an internal investigation being conducted by a Board-appointed independent special committee. This investigation concerns our student loan servicing practices and related compliance matters. And while we cannot comment further at this time, I can say this matter was contemplated, as John reaffirms our expense guidance for the year.

正如我們在新聞稿中所述，鑑於董事會任命的獨立特別委員會正在進行內部調查，我們將暫停我們的股票回購計劃。該調查涉及我們的學生貸款服務實踐和相關合規事宜。雖然我們目前無法進一步發表評論，但我可以說這件事是經過考慮的，因為約翰重申了我們今年的費用指導。

In summary, while macroeconomic conditions remain somewhat uncertain, we continue to advance our strategic goals and are benefiting from the combination of strong sales and receivables growth, expanding margin and slowly normalizing credit. These trends give us confidence in our outlook over the forecast horizon, while our reserves and high level of capital position us to withstand a range of macroeconomic environments.

總而言之，儘管宏觀經濟狀況仍然有些不確定，但我們繼續推進我們的戰略目標，並受益於強勁的銷售和應收賬款增長、利潤率擴大和信貸緩慢正常化的結合。這些趨勢使我們對預測範圍內的前景充滿信心，而我們的儲備和高水平的資本使我們能夠承受一系列宏觀經濟環境。

I'll now turn the call over to John to review key aspects of our financial results in more detail.

我現在將把電話轉給約翰，以更詳細地審查我們財務業績的關鍵方面。

Thank you, Roger, and good morning, everyone. I'll start with our financial summary results on Slide 5. As Roger indicated, we reported net income of $1.1 billion, which was 35% lower year-over-year. However, I'd like to call out 2 items. The first is that in the second quarter of last year, we had a $729 million unrealized gain on our equity investments compared to a $42 million loss this quarter. Adjusting for these, our earnings would have been $4.07 per share in the current quarter.

謝謝你，羅傑，大家早上好。我將從幻燈片 5 上的財務摘要結果開始。正如羅傑所說，我們報告的淨收入為 11 億美元，同比下降 35%。但是，我想指出 2 個項目。首先是去年第二季度，我們的股權投資獲得了 7.29 億美元的未實現收益，而本季度則虧損了 4200 萬美元。對此進行調整後，我們本季度的每股收益為 4.07 美元。

Second, the provision for credit losses increased from the prior year due to a $110 million reserve build in the current quarter compared to a $321 million reserve release in the prior year. The current quarter reserve build was primarily driven by higher loan receivables. Excluding the impact of these 2 items, our profit before tax and reserves would have been up 38% year-over-year.

其次，由於本季度增加了 1.1 億美元的準備金，而上一年釋放了 3.21 億美元的準備金，信貸損失準備金比上年有所增加。本季度儲備金增加主要是由於應收貸款增加。排除這兩項的影響，我們的稅前利潤和儲備金將同比增長 38%。

Moving to Slide 6. Net interest income was up $311 million or 14%, driven by higher average receivables and improved net interest margin. NIM was 10.94%, up 26 basis points from the prior year and 9 basis points sequentially. On both a year-over-year and sequential basis, the increase in net interest margin reflects the higher prime rate and favorable funding mix, partially offset by increased promotional balances and higher funding costs.

轉到幻燈片 6。受平均應收賬款增加和淨息差改善的推動，淨利息收入增加了 3.11 億美元或 14%。 NIM 為 10.94%，比上年上升 26 個基點，環比上升 9 個基點。在同比和環比的基礎上，淨息差的增加反映了較高的最優惠利率和有利的資金組合，部分被促銷餘額的增加和較高的資金成本所抵消。

Receivable growth was driven by card, which increased 15% year-over-year from strong sales and robust new account growth last year and into this year. In the quarter, the payment rate increased 40 basis points and remains more than 500 basis points above the pre-pandemic level. We continue to expect that the normalization in payment rate will be modest this year and will continue through the back half of 2023.

應收賬款增長由卡驅動，由於去年和今年的強勁銷售和強勁的新賬戶增長，卡同比增長 15%。本季度，支付率上升 40 個基點，仍比疫情前水平高出 500 個基點以上。我們繼續預計，今年支付率的正常化將是溫和的，並將持續到 2023 年下半年。

Organic student loans increased 4%, reflecting solid growth in originations. Personal loans were up 4%, reflecting a return to growth. We view this as a validation of our approach to marketing, underwriting and pricing of this product over the past several quarters. And we believe we are competitively positioned to grow, particularly relative to some nonbank originators.

有機學生貸款增長 4%，反映了發起的穩健增長。個人貸款增長 4%，反映恢復增長。我們認為這是對我們在過去幾個季度對該產品的營銷、承保和定價方法的驗證。而且我們相信我們具有增長的競爭力，特別是相對於一些非銀行發起人而言。

In terms of funding mix, our customer deposit balances were flat year-over-year and up 1% sequentially. Increases in our savings balances offset the run-off in higher cost CDs. Our strong asset growth may cause deposits to vary as a proportion of our funding mix, but we continue to target 70% to 80% deposit funding over the medium term.

在資金組合方面，我們的客戶存款餘額同比持平，環比增長 1%。我們儲蓄餘額的增加抵消了成本較高的 CD 的流失。我們強勁的資產增長可能會導致存款在我們的資金組合中所佔的比例有所不同，但我們將在中期內繼續以 70% 至 80% 的存款資金為目標。

Looking at other revenue on Slide 7. Excluding the impacts of equity investments detailed earlier, noninterest income increased $105 million or 19%. This was driven by higher net discount and interchange revenue, which was up $51 million or 15%, reflecting strong sales and favorable sales mix, partially offset by higher rewards.

查看幻燈片 7 上的其他收入。不包括前面詳述的股權投資的影響，非利息收入增加了 1.05 億美元或 19%。這是由較高的淨折扣和交換收入推動的，增加了 5100 萬美元或 15%，反映了強勁的銷售和有利的銷售組合，部分被較高的獎勵所抵消。

Sales were up 18% year-over-year with growth across most categories. For the first half of the year, our sales growth was 20%. We estimate that inflation contributed between 200 and 300 basis points to this figure. Strong sales also drove higher rewards expense compared to the prior year. Our rewards rate increased 6 basis points year-over-year, reflecting 2 factors: our standard 5% category aligning with customer needs included gas this quarter.

銷售額同比增長 18%，大部分品類均有增長。今年上半年，我們的銷售額增長了20%。我們估計通脹對這一數字的貢獻在 200 到 300 個基點之間。與去年相比，強勁的銷售也推動了更高的獎勵費用。我們的獎勵率同比增長 6 個基點，反映了兩個因素：我們符合客戶需求的標準 5% 類別包括本季度的天然氣。

Second, the substantial growth in new accounts over the past year increased the cost of our cashback match. However, on a sequential basis, the reward rate was up 1 basis point and up 3 basis points through the first half of the year. This is consistent with our expectations of 2 to 4 basis points of annual rewards cost increases. Loan fee income was up $37 million, or 35%, primarily driven by an increase in late fee instances.

其次，過去一年新賬戶的大幅增長增加了我們現金返還匹配的成本。然而，在連續的基礎上，獎勵率在今年上半年上升了 1 個基點和 3 個基點。這與我們對年度獎勵成本增加 2 到 4 個基點的預期一致。貸款費用收入增加了 3700 萬美元，即 35%，主要是由於滯納金案件的增加。

Moving to expenses on Slide 8. Total operating expenses were flat year-over-year and up 8% from the prior quarter. Compensation costs were up slightly year-over-year, primarily due to increased head count and higher average salaries. Like many organizations, we are seeing salary and wage pressure, which will likely continue through the balance of this year and into next year.

轉到幻燈片 8 的費用。總運營費用與去年同期持平，比上一季度增長 8%。薪酬成本同比略有上升，主要是由於員工人數增加和平均工資增加。像許多組織一樣，我們看到了工資和工資壓力，這種壓力可能會持續到今年剩餘時間和明年。

Marketing expenses increased $79 million, or 45%, as we continue to invest for growth in our card and consumer banking products. We grew new card accounts by 39% from last year's second quarter. This speaks to the strength of our brand, the relevance of our value proposition and the benefits of our investments in targeting analytics.

營銷費用增加了 7900 萬美元，即 45%，因為我們繼續投資於我們的卡和消費銀行產品的增長。我們的新卡賬戶比去年第二季度增長了 39%。這說明了我們品牌的實力、我們價值主張的相關性以及我們在目標分析方面投資的好處。

As Roger discussed, we closely track economic and competitive conditions, and we remain disciplined about our through-the-cycle approach to underwriting. This approach contributes to our confidence about investing in brand and acquisition.

正如羅傑所討論的，我們密切跟踪經濟和競爭狀況，並且我們對整個週期的承保方法保持自律。這種方法有助於增強我們對品牌和收購投資的信心。

Moving to credit performance on Slide 9. Net charge-offs remain low and were in line with expectations for continued credit normalization. Total net charge-offs were 1.8%, 32 basis points lower than the prior year, and up 19 basis points from the prior quarter.

轉向幻燈片 9 上的信貸表現。淨沖銷仍然很低，符合信貸持續正常化的預期。淨沖銷總額為 1.8%，比上年下降 32 個基點，比上一季度上升 19 個基點。

Total net charge-off dollars were down $27 million from the prior year and up $61 million sequentially. In the card portfolio, the net charge-off rate increased 17 basis points sequentially or $50 million.

淨沖銷美元總額比上年減少 2700 萬美元，環比增加 6100 萬美元。在卡組合中，淨沖銷率環比增加 17 個基點或 5000 萬美元。

Looking at our receivables, we are not seeing evidence of emerging credit stress at this point. Our delinquencies are virtually unchanged from the first quarter. And while we expect some increases in delinquencies over the back half, this is consistent with our outlook for steady credit normalization into 2023.

從我們的應收賬款來看，我們目前沒有看到出現信貸壓力的跡象。我們的拖欠情況與第一季度相比幾乎沒有變化。雖然我們預計下半年的拖欠率會有所增加，但這與我們對 2023 年信貸穩定正常化的前景一致。

Turning to the discussion of our allowance on Slide 10. This past quarter, we increased our allowance by $110 million, largely due to higher receivable balances. Our reserve rate continued to decline, however, dropping 31 basis points to 6.8%. As a reminder, our reserves are based on our expectation of life of loan losses.

轉到幻燈片 10 上關於我們備抵的討論。上個季度，我們將備抵增加了 1.1 億美元，主要是由於應收賬款餘額增加。然而，我們的準備金率繼續下降，下降 31 個基點至 6.8%。提醒一下，我們的準備金是基於我們對貸款損失期限的預期。

On the macroeconomic view, we believe the balance of risk has shifted to include the potential for an economic slowdown resulting from Fed policy actions. For us, the most significant driver of loss is changes to employment conditions. As Roger mentioned, current labor -- the current labor market conditions remained healthy. And as examples, the number of job openings still exceeds the number of unemployed people and the unemployment rate remains low, but unemployment claims have started to creep up. As part of our reserving process, we consider the prospects of higher unemployment and a range of macroeconomic scenarios.

從宏觀經濟角度來看，我們認為風險平衡已經轉移到包括美聯儲政策行動導致經濟放緩的可能性。對我們來說，最重要的損失驅動因素是就業條件的變化。正如羅傑所說，當前的勞動力——當前的勞動力市場狀況仍然健康。例如，職位空缺的數量仍然超過失業人數，失業率仍然很低，但失業人數已經開始攀升。作為我們儲備過程的一部分，我們考慮了更高失業率的前景和一系列宏觀經濟情景。

Looking at Slide 11. Our common equity tier 1 for the period was 14.2%, well above our 10.5% target. The strength of our capital position is underscored by the recent CCAR's regulatory stress test. Based on the CCAR's results, our preliminary stress capital buffer should decrease by 110 basis points, which effectively lowers our minimum required CET1 ratio to 7%, the lowest possible ratio. We repurchased $601 million of common stock during the quarter and declared a quarterly common dividend of $0.60 per share.

看看幻燈片 11。我們在此期間的普通股一級為 14.2%，遠高於我們 10.5% 的目標。最近 CCAR 的監管壓力測試突顯了我們的資本實力。根據 CCAR 的結果，我們的初步壓力資本緩衝應減少 110 個基點，這實際上將我們要求的最低 CET1 比率降至 7%，這是可能的最低比率。我們在本季度回購了 6.01 億美元的普通股，並宣布了每股 0.60 美元的季度普通股股息。

Concluding on Slide 12. As we look into the back half of this year, our perspectives for 2022 remains favorable. We are improving some elements of our expectations. We are revising our view on loan growth to low teens. Continued strong sales and new account acquisitions through the second quarter support our confidence in this outlook. There is no change to our view on NIM. We continue to see 5 to 15 basis points of upside for the full year relative to the first quarter level of 10.85%.

在幻燈片 12 上結束。展望今年下半年，我們對 2022 年的前景仍然看好。我們正在改進我們期望中的一些元素。我們正在修改對青少年貸款增長的看法。第二季度持續強勁的銷售和新客戶收購支持了我們對這一前景的信心。我們對 NIM 的看法沒有改變。相對於第一季度 10.85% 的水平，我們繼續認為全年有 5 至 15 個基點的上行空間。

Our expectations for expenses remain at mid-single-digit growth versus last year. We still expect marketing costs to come in above 2019 levels, with nonmarketing expenses to increase by low single digits. We are improving our credit outlook. We now expect net charge-offs to be between 1.9% and 2.1% for the full year, and we intend to return to share repurchases at an appropriate time in the future.

與去年相比，我們對費用的預期保持在中個位數的增長。我們仍然預計營銷成本將高於 2019 年的水平，非營銷費用將以低個位數增長。我們正在改善我們的信用前景。我們現在預計全年的淨沖銷將在 1.9% 至 2.1% 之間，並且我們打算在未來適當的時候重新進行股票回購。

In summary, loan growth accelerated as we benefited from robust sales and strong account acquisition. Credit performance remained solid, reflecting our disciplined approach to underwriting and credit management. We manage operating expenses while investing in new account acquisition, brand and digital capabilities and our balance sheet and capital position are strong. The results demonstrate the resiliency of our integrated digital banking and payments model, and I'm confident that we are well positioned for continued profitable growth through a range of economic conditions.

總而言之，由於我們受益於強勁的銷售和強勁的客戶獲取，貸款增長加速。信貸表現保持穩健，反映了我們嚴謹的承銷和信貸管理方法。我們管理運營費用，同時投資於新客戶獲取、品牌和數字能力，我們的資產負債表和資本狀況強勁。結果證明了我們集成的數字銀行和支付模式的彈性，我相信我們已經做好了在一系列經濟條件下實現持續盈利增長的準備。

With that, I'll turn the call back to our operator, Katie, to open the line for Q&A.

有了這個，我將把電話轉回我們的接線員凱蒂，打開問答線路。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question will come from Moshe Orenbuch with Crédit Suisse.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題將來自瑞士信貸的 Moshe Orenbuch。

Really strong results in terms of accounts and loan growth. And maybe, Roger, could you just talk a little more detail about kind of as you see the competitive environment, you're adding a lot of accounts. I know you've talked about how you kind of originate them with a through-the-cycle approach. But just talk a little bit about both how you see the competitive environment and how you see what's your -- any kind of tweaks you are making because of the current environment. And talk about that in terms of the outlook.

在賬戶和貸款增長方面確實取得了強勁的成績。也許，羅傑，你能不能多談談你看到競爭環境的細節，你正在添加很多賬戶。我知道您已經討論過您是如何通過整個週期的方法來創建它們的。但是，請談談您如何看待競爭環境以及您如何看待自己的東西——您因當前環境而做出的任何調整。並從前景的角度談論這一點。

Sure, Moshe. Thanks for the question. I would say the competitive environment remains intense with the consumers staying strong. We are seeing strong levels of marketing from most of our prime competitors, but I think our differentiated value proposition is succeeding well in the marketplace across all of our products.

當然，摩西。謝謝你的問題。我想說競爭環境仍然激烈，消費者保持強勁。我們看到大多數主要競爭對手的營銷水平很高，但我認為我們的差異化價值主張在我們所有產品的市場上都取得了成功。

From a credit standpoint, I would say we're roughly back to where we were pre-pandemic. But keep in mind, that's sort of a late cycle approach that we had towards the end of 2019. So we think we remain conservative on credit, but the differentiation for the brand and the product are really working well to drive growth, even in this competitive environment.

從信用的角度來看，我想說我們大致回到了大流行前的狀態。但請記住，這是我們在 2019 年底採用的一種後期週期方法。因此，我們認為我們在信貸方面保持保守，但品牌和產品的差異化確實能很好地推動增長，即使在這種情況下競爭環境。

Great. And just as a follow-up, on the student loan side, given that this is the key quarter coming up in terms of originations. Last quarter, you talked a little bit about how you expected to have some advantages versus market funded players. Obviously, there's -- you've got the issue that you've got from a compliance standpoint. You talked about how that could impact you from an origination standpoint and if that does, how long that could last?

偉大的。作為後續行動，在學生貸款方面，鑑於這是在起源方面出現的關鍵季度。上個季度，您談到了您希望如何與市場資助的參與者相比具有一些優勢。顯然，從合規性的角度來看，您遇到了問題。您談到了從起源的角度來看這會如何影響您，如果確實如此，那會持續多長時間？

Yes. We are moving forward with our plans for peak season. Again, what has been a wild card over the last couple of years has been sort of overall number of kids going back to school and their demands for funding. So I think that the market size is always a bit uncertain. But we feel good about how prepared we are as we move into the peak origination months.

是的。我們正在推進我們的旺季計劃。再一次，在過去幾年裡，一直存在的不確定因素是重返學校的孩子總數及其對資金的需求。所以我認為市場規模總是有點不確定。但是當我們進入高峰期時，我們對自己的準備情況感到滿意。

Our next question will come from Bill Carcache with Wolfe Research.

我們的下一個問題將來自 Wolfe Research 的 Bill Carcache。

You guys certainly have historically remained profitable through the cycle with risk-adjusted yields remaining quite strong, even in a deep recession like we saw in 2008, and it makes sense that you're continuing to invest here against the backup that we're in. But could you maybe frame for us what it would take to curb your appetite for investing for growth? And maybe just what it would take for you to have a pullback?

從歷史上看，你們肯定在整個週期中保持盈利，風險調整後的收益率仍然相當強勁，即使在我們在 2008 年看到的深度衰退中也是如此，而且你們繼續在這裡投資以對抗我們所處的備份是有道理的. 但是，您能否為我們提出如何遏制您為增長而投資的慾望？也許正是你需要回調？

Yes. Thanks for the question. So there are a whole series of things we carefully monitor in terms of the health of our customers and portfolio, and that goes into our appetite for growth. I would say part of the things we watch most carefully externally are the job market and rising unemployment. And so we have a finely tuned playbook in terms of how we'll adjust originations.

是的。謝謝你的問題。因此，我們在客戶和投資組合的健康狀況方面仔細監控了一系列事情，這符合我們對增長的胃口。我想說，我們在外部最仔細觀察的部分事情是就業市場和失業率上升。因此，就我們將如何調整起源而言，我們有一個經過微調的劇本。

But we continue to originate throughout the cycle. And so even during the financial crisis that you referred to, we kept up a certain level of account production even as we became more conservative in credit. And our underwriting always uses a through-the-cycle approach as we think about the profitability of accounts we're booking. So those are some of the things we'd look at.

但我們在整個週期中繼續起源。因此，即使在你提到的金融危機期間，即使我們在信貸方面變得更加保守，我們也保持了一定水平的賬戶生產。當我們考慮我們預訂賬戶的盈利能力時，我們的承保總是使用貫穿整個週期的方法。所以這些是我們要看的一些東西。

And if I may follow up on that, maybe could you also frame how you're thinking about the risk that -- the strength that we're seeing in the consumer and labor markets is in and of itself inflationary and could leave the Fed to have to do more. And since we know that monetary policy operates with long and variable lags, the increases in unemployment that follow those Fed hikes tend to be quite lagged. And so those effects could take some time to show up.

如果我可以跟進，也許你也可以描述一下你對風險的看法——我們在消費者和勞動力市場看到的力量本身就是通脹，可能會讓美聯儲必須做更多。而且，由於我們知道貨幣政策的運行具有長期且可變的滯後，因此美聯儲加息後的失業率增加往往相當滯後。所以這些影響可能需要一些時間才能顯現出來。

Maybe can you just speak to that dynamic, how that feeds -- if that feeds in any way into your reserving models. We haven't had a significant inflation cycle in a long time. And so there are some concerns that current underwriting models may not be picking that up. I would love to hear your thoughts on that.

也許你能談談那個動態，它是如何產生的——如果它以任何方式進入你的保留模型。很長一段時間以來，我們都沒有經歷過明顯的通脹週期。因此，有些人擔心當前的承保模式可能無法實現這一點。我很想听聽你對此的看法。

Yes. Bill, I'll take that one. Good question. We spent plenty of time thinking about it. So inflation unto itself is not correlated to loan losses based on all the historical data we've looked at. Now certainly, we've seen some changes in consumer behavior. So we'll keep an eye on it. But typically, it would be unemployment or changes in employment levels overall.

是的。比爾，我要那個。好問題。我們花了很多時間思考它。因此，根據我們查看的所有歷史數據，通脹本身與貸款損失無關。現在可以肯定的是，我們已經看到了消費者行為的一些變化。所以我們會密切關注它。但通常情況下，這將是失業或整體就業水平的變化。

I have a particular view that as we try or the Fed tries to deal with the inflation situation, certainly, it's going to be quite a period of time before the job market is directly impacted in a significant way. So unemployment remains super low, so 3.5%. There's still about 11.3 million job openings right now versus 6 million people looking for jobs. Spending remains robust. And credit is performing very, very well.

我有一個特別的觀點，當我們試圖或美聯儲試圖應對通脹形勢時，當然，在就業市場受到重大直接影響之前，還需要相當長的一段時間。所以失業率仍然非常低，3.5%。目前仍有大約 1130 萬個職位空缺，而有 600 萬人正在尋找工作。支出依然強勁。信貸表現非常非常好。

So as we look at those factors, we're going to keep an eye and see if there's any material changes on that. But in terms of reserving, at this point, that life of loan approach that we take, looking at broad macros as well as portfolio performance, gave us confidence in the reserving levels we chose and the corresponding reduction in the reserve rate. So we'll keep an eye on it and update it quarterly.

因此，當我們查看這些因素時，我們將密切關注，看看是否有任何實質性變化。但就準備金而言，在這一點上，我們採用的貸款期限方法，著眼於宏觀宏觀和投資組合的表現，讓我們對我們選擇的準備金水平和相應的準備金率降低充滿信心。所以我們會密切關注它並每季度更新一次。

Our next question will come from Sanjay Sakhrani with KBW.

我們的下一個問題將來自 KBW 的 Sanjay Sakhrani。

I guess my first question is on the share repurchase suspension. Obviously, that decision was probably not something that was taken lightly. Could you just talk about the thought process in making that decision, given all the positive news on your excess capital and stress capital buffers and such? I mean should we infer that the size and scope of damages could be pretty significant?

我想我的第一個問題是關於股票回購暫停。顯然，這個決定恐怕不是輕率的事情。考慮到關於您的過剩資本和壓力資本緩衝等的所有積極消息，您能否談談做出該決定的思考過程？我的意思是我們是否應該推斷損害的規模和範圍可能相當大？

Thanks for the question, Sanjay. I think I tried to address that when I said our expense guidance that John reaffirmed includes our views on this matter. So there are many factors that go into a share repurchase program, it's not just potential financial exposure. So -- and I would say, returning our shareholders' capital in the form of the repurchase has been a big focus for management and the Board and will continue to do. And that's why John said we hope to get back to the repurchase program as soon as we are able.

謝謝你的問題，桑傑。當我說約翰重申的費用指導包括我們對此事的看法時，我想我試圖解決這個問題。因此，股票回購計劃有很多因素，不僅僅是潛在的財務風險。所以——我想說，以回購的形式返還我們的股東資本一直是管理層和董事會的一個重點，並將繼續這樣做。這就是為什麼約翰說我們希望盡快回到回購計劃。

Okay. And then, I guess, a question for John, just on NIM. Obviously, I think like the Fed's posture has moved towards more rate hikes. I'm just curious -- your NIM expectation is sort of unchanged. But maybe you could just talk about what went into that and if you're seeing any changes in deposit betas.

好的。然後，我想，關於 NIM 的問題要問 John。顯然，我認為美聯儲的姿態已經轉向更多加息。我只是好奇——你的 NIM 期望有點不變。但也許您可以談談其中的內容以及您是否看到存款測試版的任何變化。

Yes. Thanks, Sanjay. So the NIM guidance gave a range of benchmarking off the 10.85%, and we said 5 to 15 basis points range of upside from that. Based on the Fed actions to date, we're tracking towards the upper end of that guidance range at this point. So that's a positive.

是的。謝謝，桑傑。因此，NIM 指引給出了 10.85% 的基準範圍，我們說從該範圍內上漲 5 到 15 個基點。根據美聯儲迄今為止的行動，我們目前正在追踪該指導範圍的上限。所以這是積極的。

We are seeing deposit costs increase and that's a function of 2 things. The competitive environment and then also the fact that we had a record loan growth in the quarter at 13%. So the funding mix, as I said in my prepared remarks, that will likely change in the back half of the year. And we're going to continue to focus on that 70%, 80%.

我們看到存款成本增加，這是兩件事的結果。競爭環境，以及我們在本季度創下 13% 的創紀錄貸款增長的事實。因此，正如我在準備好的講話中所說，資金組合可能會在今年下半年發生變化。我們將繼續關注那 70%、80%。

So competitively, we're not going to lead certainly in terms of deposit pricing, but we're going to respond to ensure we remain very competitive and have a proposition -- a strong value proposition for our customers. So how that translates into betas, it's hard to call right now. But I would say the first part of the year, we had a very, very low beta. I would expect that to normalize as the funding environment migrates.

競爭如此激烈，我們不會在存款定價方面肯定領先，但我們會做出回應，以確保我們保持非常有競爭力並有一個主張——為我們的客戶提供強大的價值主張。那麼這如何轉化為測試版，現在很難說。但我想說的是，今年上半年，我們的測試版非常非常低。我希望隨著融資環境的變化，這種情況會正常化。

Our next question will come from Rick Shane with JPMorgan.

我們的下一個問題將來自摩根大通的 Rick Shane。

When we look back at some of the changes over the years like the promulgation of the CARD Act, there were impacts that people thought would be cyclical that became secular in terms of loss rates, in terms of yields. I'm wondering when we look at payment rates today, if there's something that you guys might see that suggest that this is more of a secular change than a cyclical change.

當我們回顧這些年來的一些變化時，比如頒布 CARD 法案，人們認為會產生週期性的影響，而這些影響在損失率和收益率方面變得長期存在。我想知道當我們今天查看支付率時，你們是否會看到一些東西表明這更像是一種長期變化而不是周期性變化。

Yes. Thanks, Rick. So -- yes. It's hard to call it right now. But we do have some preliminary data that shows that the decrease in the use of cash and the touchless transactions you may do at Starbucks or other institutions where folks previously would use cash, a lot of that's gone away. So it's creating a higher level of transactions through our card.

是的。謝謝，瑞克。所以——是的。現在很難打電話。但我們確實有一些初步數據表明，現金使用的減少以及您在星巴克或其他人們以前會使用現金的機構進行的非接觸式交易，其中很多已經消失了。因此，它通過我們的卡創建了更高級別的交易。

Good thing for us from an interchange perspective, but also that cash that folks used to expend, I believe there's some portion of it that is now going to pay down balances which is increasing the payment rate. Now how much is that? It's hard to call right now. We're about 500 basis points higher than the pre-pandemic level.

從交換的角度來看，這對我們來說是件好事，還有人們過去花費的現金，我相信其中一部分現在將用於支付餘額，從而提高了支付率。現在多少錢？現在很難打電話。我們比大流行前的水平高出約 500 個基點。

If I were to ask to give a range, I would say maybe 100 to 200 basis points of that could be a permanent change. And then the rest has to do with the strength of the portfolio and the strength of the consumers.

如果我要求給出一個範圍，我會說其中 100 到 200 個基點可能是永久性的變化。然後剩下的與投資組合的實力和消費者的實力有關。

Got it. It's helpful. And I agree with that conclusion. It just feels like on a day-to-day basis, we're all using less cash. And I'm wondering if that's just driving more and more -- creating more and more transactors for you guys.

知道了。這很有幫助。我同意這個結論。感覺就像在日常生活中，我們都在使用更少的現金。我想知道這是否只是在推動越來越多的——為你們創造越來越多的交易者。

Yes. Thanks for the question, Rick. Anything else?

是的。謝謝你的問題，瑞克。還要別的嗎？

That's it.

而已。

Our next question will come from Ryan Nash with Goldman Sachs.

我們的下一個問題將來自高盛的瑞安納什。

So John, maybe a question on the allowance. If I look, I recognize that, obviously, this is a life of loan count. But when I look at the level of reserve today, you're only modestly below where you were at March of 2020, call it low 7s versus high 6s. So can you maybe just give us a little bit more color in terms of what's assumed in the reserve in terms of scenarios? And if we see a modest downturn, just given how healthy your consumers are, like what could that do to both losses and the allowance over time?

所以約翰，也許是關於津貼的問題。如果我看，我會意識到，很明顯，這是一個貸款計數的生活。但是，當我查看今天的儲備水平時，您僅略低於 2020 年 3 月的水平，將其稱為低 7 與高 6。那麼，您能否就儲備中的情景假設給我們更多的色彩？如果我們看到適度的衰退，只要考慮到您的消費者的健康狀況，隨著時間的推移，這會對損失和補貼產生什麼影響？

Sure. So as I mentioned in my previous comments, we looked at a number of different scenarios. But I can give you a couple of data points here. In terms of unemployment, it ranged from a low of about 3.3 at the end of 2022 to a peak of 5.8 and then as we look for '23, 3.5 to just about 5.5. We're seeing a level of GDP growth slowing. We haven't baked in a full recession, but certainly, the GDP does reduce and is near 0 in one of the scenarios we ran.

當然。因此，正如我在之前的評論中提到的，我們研究了許多不同的場景。但我可以在這裡給你幾個數據點。就失業率而言，它從 2022 年底的 3.3 左右的低點到 5.8 的峰值不等，然後在我們尋找 23 年的 3.5 到大約 5.5 之間。我們看到 GDP 增長水平正在放緩。我們還沒有完全陷入衰退，但可以肯定的是，在我們運行的一種情景中，GDP 確實會減少並且接近於 0。

And the employment situation still is robust and we certainly considered that as well. So as we look out into '23, we're going to evaluate what the macro conditions are and the impact on life of loan losses. But for me is the portfolio performance really, really strong, job market really, really strong. Uncertainty on the broad macros and we conservatively model those.

就業形勢依然強勁，我們當然也考慮到了這一點。因此，當我們展望 23 年時，我們將評估宏觀條件是什麼以及對貸款損失期限的影響。但對我來說，投資組合表現真的非常強勁，就業市場真的非常強勁。宏觀宏觀的不確定性，我們保守地對這些進行建模。

So overall, I feel like we're 100% consistent with how we've reserved in the past. We've taken that through-the-cycle underwriting approach that has benefits through into the portfolio, and we've been conservative in our process to ensure that our reserves are fairly stated under GAAP.

所以總的來說，我覺得我們與過去的保留方式 100% 一致。我們採用了貫穿整個週期的承保方法，這種方法可以使投資組合受益，並且我們在流程中一直保持保守，以確保我們的準備金在 GAAP 下得到公平陳述。

Got it. And maybe -- Roger, maybe a follow-up to Sanjay's question. I guess, given that it doesn't sound like you're expecting much in terms of cost from this investigation, I guess, maybe just talk about (inaudible) to spend the buyback? And I know that you're limited in what you could say, but any sense for the timing of how long an investigation like this could take?

知道了。也許——羅傑，也許是桑傑問題的後續。我想，鑑於您對此次調查的成本期望不高，我想，也許只是談論（聽不清）花回購？而且我知道你能說的話是有限的，但是對於這樣的調查可能需要多長時間的時間有任何意義嗎？

Yes. No, I am, to your point, limited in what I can say. We can't really give you anything to expect in timing other than -- you know our views on capital. And so as soon as we can, we hope to restart the buyback.

是的。不，就你的觀點而言，我能說的有限。除了你知道我們對資本的看法之外，我們真的不能在時間上給你任何期望。因此，我們希望盡快重新開始回購。

Our next question will come from Mark DeVries with Barclays.

我們的下一個問題將來自 Mark DeVries 和 Barclays。

Just 1 more question on the buyback. When you are able to resume, should we expect the cadence to kind of mirror what you did in the first half of this year? Or could you accelerate repurchases?

關於回購還有 1 個問題。當您能夠恢復時，我們是否應該期望節奏能夠反映您在今年上半年所做的事情？或者你能加速回購嗎？

We'll look at that, Mark. Certainly, we have that broad authorization for the Board for over 5 quarters. It's $4.2 billion to $4.3 billion of repurchases. So depending on the pause, we'll see what we can do because certainly, we're over regulatory minimums, we're certainly over our internal target. And as we've said previously, we're committed to stepping the CET1 ratio down to 10.5%. So we'll do what we can do.

我們會看看那個，馬克。當然，我們對董事會擁有超過 5 個季度的廣泛授權。這是42億至43億美元的回購。因此，根據暫停，我們將看看我們能做些什麼，因為我們肯定超過了監管的最低限度，我們肯定超過了我們的內部目標。正如我們之前所說，我們致力於將 CET1 比率降至 10.5%。所以我們會做我們能做的。

Okay. Great. And then maybe a question for Roger. I mean just given kind of the pullback we've seen in fintech valuations, is there anything that looks interesting here to deploy that capital inorganically?

好的。偉大的。然後也許是羅傑的問題。我的意思是考慮到我們在金融科技估值中看到的某種回調，這裡有什麼有趣的東西可以無機地部署這些資本嗎？

Good question. I think while valuations have pulled back, I'm not sure there are any bargains yet. But for us, we've tended not to focus on partnerships and potential investments as opposed to acquisitions. And a lot of capabilities, given our great technology team, we feel like we can build ourselves. So we have a good business development effort that was out there, but I wouldn't necessarily expect something.

好問題。我認為雖然估值已經回落，但我不確定是否有任何便宜貨。但對我們來說，我們傾向於不關注合作夥伴關係和潛在投資，而不是收購。還有很多能力，鑑於我們強大的技術團隊，我們覺得我們可以建立自己。所以我們有一個很好的業務發展工作，但我不一定會期待什麼。

Our next question will come from John Pancari with Evercore ISI.

我們的下一個問題將來自 Evercore ISI 的 John Pancari。

Just -- sorry, back to the student loan issue. Just -- I know you've given all that you can comment on, but there's also -- in the public, we know that there's also a consent order related to this with the CFPB, it looks like in 2020, and I believe it's even tied to a consent order for 2015. Did that impact -- did that influence the suspension? And was there something new that develops that caused the internal investigation?

只是——對不起，回到學生貸款問題。只是 - 我知道你已經給出了你可以評論的所有內容，但還有 - 在公眾中，我們知道 CFPB 也有與此相關的同意令，看起來像在 2020 年，我相信它是甚至與 2015 年的同意令相關聯。這種影響 - 是否影響了暫停？是否有什麼新的發展導致了內部調查？

I guess the only thing I can say is both the consent order and the investigation are in the area of student loan servicing. But beyond that, there really isn't anything else I can add at this time.

我想我唯一能說的是同意令和調查都在學生貸款服務領域。但除此之外，我現在真的沒有其他可以添加的東西了。

Okay. All right. And then separately, just on the -- this is sort of related to it, but we're around the expenses. I know you indicated that the investigation is already contemplated into the expense guide. And I appreciate that color. Does that mean that there were potential expense offsets that would help keep the expense guide unchanged or that getting back to your earlier comment that there is unlikely to be an expense impact?

好的。好的。然後分開，就在 - 這有點相關，但我們圍繞著費用。我知道你表示已經考慮在費用指南中進行調查。我很欣賞這種顏色。這是否意味著存在潛在的費用抵消，這將有助於保持費用指南不變，或者回到您之前的評論，即不太可能產生費用影響？

Yes. So John, the way I would think about it is we're continuing to kind of run and manage our business and try to be disciplined in the way we distribute expense dollars and spend expense dollars. Certainly, there's puts and takes in every single expense line. And we've continued to have our foot on the gas in terms of new account acquisition and media, which contributed to the marketing increases. The rest of it is, we consider it as part of the cost of our operation and we're trying to make it as efficient as we can.

是的。所以約翰，我想的方式是我們繼續經營和管理我們的業務，並努力在我們分配費用和支出費用的方式上保持紀律。當然，每一條支出線都有投入和投入。我們繼續在新客戶獲取和媒體方面全力以赴，這為營銷增長做出了貢獻。其餘的是，我們將其視為我們運營成本的一部分，並且我們正在努力使其盡可能高效。

Okay. If I could just ask 1 more on the credit side, I know the delinquencies edged up a little bit year-over-year for 2Q. Was -- did you see any pressure incrementally in the lower FICO bands or any color around the modest increase in delinquencies that you saw?

好的。如果我可以在信貸方面再問 1 個，我知道第二季度的拖欠率同比略有上升。是 - 您是否看到較低 FICO 波段的壓力逐漸增加，或者您看到的拖欠率適度增加有任何顏色？

Yes. So what we're seeing is the lower FICO bands normalizing. So -- and you would expect those to normalize more quickly than the higher FICO bands and, frankly, we consider that when we do our underwriting. What -- interestingly, what we've seen is early stage delinquencies across the board have corrected in later-stage buckets more quickly than we see it in the past.

是的。所以我們看到的是較低的 FICO 頻帶正常化。所以 - 你會期望這些比更高的 FICO 頻段更快地正常化，坦率地說，我們在進行承保時會考慮到這一點。什麼 - 有趣的是，我們看到的是早期階段的拖欠在後期階段的糾正速度比我們過去看到的要快。

And some of that could be our -- some of the work we've done in terms of analytics that an optimized time to contact and collection strategies and some of it could be just customer performance. So there's really no takeaways from the portfolio other than it continues to perform very, very well and gave us a degree of comfort as we reduced the overall reserve rate.

其中一些可能是我們的 - 我們在分析方面所做的一些工作是優化聯繫和收集策略的時間，其中一些可能只是客戶績效。因此，除了它繼續表現非常非常好，並在我們降低整體準備金率時給了我們一定程度的安慰之外，該投資組合真的沒有任何收穫。

Our next question will come from Betsy Graseck with Morgan Stanley.

我們的下一個問題將來自摩根士丹利的 Betsy Graseck。

Just on the investigation, 1 for me here. You did mention that it is embedded in your full year guide on expenses. And I'm wondering if we should take that to mean that you expect the review will be finalized by the end of this year. Is that a fair conclusion?

剛查了一下，我這裡1個。您確實提到它已包含在您的全年費用指南中。我想知道我們是否應該認為這意味著您預計審核將在今年年底之前完成。這是一個公平的結論嗎？

I wouldn't necessarily link those two. I mean I think what we can say is that we did not see anything that would change our view that nonmarketing expenses this year would grow in the low single digits. And we did indicate that we would hope to have it concluded, but it's done by an independent committee that reports to the Board.

我不一定將這兩者聯繫起來。我的意思是我認為我們可以說的是，我們沒有看到任何改變我們認為今年非營銷費用將以低個位數增長的觀點。我們確實表示我們希望完成它，但它是由一個向董事會報告的獨立委員會完成的。

Right. And the buyback restarting is a function of the investigation concluding, is that fair rather than like a particular CET1 level?

正確的。回購重啟是調查結論的一個功能，這是否公平，而不是像特定的 CET1 級別？

Yes. The termination of the buyback has nothing to do with our capital levels. It does not necessarily require the investigation to be fully complete for us to resume. There are many complex factors that go into it.

是的。回購的終止與我們的資本水平無關。我們不一定需要完全完成調查才能恢復。其中有很多複雜的因素。

Okay. So it's a bit open-ended on our end, thinking about when to put it back in the model. I realize you understand that. So I suppose there will be a wide range of opinions after this call on that.

好的。所以這對我們來說有點開放，考慮什麼時候把它放回模型中。我知道你明白這一點。所以我想在這次電話會議之後會有廣泛的意見。

Just on the business, can we talk a little bit about the interchange rate? The gross interchange rate has been really strong in recent quarters. And wondering if there's anything in particular driving that. Are there increases in competitors that you're matching? Or is there something else going on?

正事上，能不能稍微談談匯率？最近幾個季度的總互換率非常強勁。並且想知道是否有什麼特別推動了這一點。您匹配的競爭對手是否有所增加？還是有其他事情發生？

Yes. The overall interchange has largely been a function of the robust sales volume. So we're up -- our sales were up 20% through the first half of the year, 18% through the end of the second quarter. So that's driving overall interchange. Now mix does come into play in terms of the interchange rate. And obviously, we don't spend a lot of time discussing that.

是的。整體交換很大程度上取決於強勁的銷量。所以我們上升了——我們的銷售額在今年上半年增長了 20%，到第二季度末增長了 18%。所以這推動了整體的交流。現在 mix 在交換率方面確實發揮了作用。顯然，我們不會花很多時間討論這個問題。

But overall, the solid business performance is driving interchange. And then maybe your follow-on might be rewards. We did see a spike in rewards which, to me, wasn't a bad thing whatsoever. What happened was gas was one of the 5% categories in the quarter, everybody knows about the inflation at the pump. So we had a larger percentage of customers maxing out on that 5% category, which drove the rate up.

但總體而言，穩健的業務表現正在推動交流。然後也許你的後續行動可能是獎勵。我們確實看到了獎勵的飆升，對我來說，這並不是一件壞事。發生的事情是天然氣是本季度 5% 的類別之一，每個人都知道加油站的通貨膨脹。因此，我們有更大比例的客戶最大限度地使用了 5% 的類別，這推動了利率上升。

But overall, the rate is -- we expect 2 to 4 basis points of inflation there. So interchange in the aggregate, super strong interchange rate, very, very solid rewards coming in at expectations.

但總的來說，這個比率是——我們預計那裡的通脹率為 2 到 4 個基點。因此，總體而言，交換，超強的交換率，非常非常可靠的回報符合預期。

Got it. And that was the follow-up. So appreciate it.

知道了。這就是後續行動。所以欣賞它。

Our next question will come from Meng Jiao with Deutsche Bank.

我們的下一個問題將來自德意志銀行的孟嬌。

John, you mentioned, I think, sales growth was about 18% through the end of second quarter. I wanted to see if that was sort of holding through the first 3 weeks of the third quarter. And then are you -- are there any specific verticals you would call out in terms of sales volume?

約翰，你提到，我認為，到第二季度末，銷售增長約為 18%。我想看看這在第三季度的前 3 周是否會持續下去。然後你 - 在銷量方面你會提到任何特定的垂直行業嗎？

Yes. So it is holding. So through Monday, it was up 17%. So again, incredibly robust. Those figures actually have surprised me a little bit to the upside, which is nice. We're seeing travel increase. Obviously, we're seeing petroleum increase. And the everyday categories have increased. The one thing that we did see through the first half is home improvement spend actually decrease versus everyday spend. So it's still positive year-over-year, but not increasing at the same rate as everyday spend and other retail.

是的。所以它正在舉行。所以到週一，它上漲了 17%。再次，令人難以置信的強大。這些數字實際上讓我有點驚訝，這很好。我們看到旅行增加。顯然，我們看到石油在增加。日常類別有所增加。我們在上半年看到的一件事是家居裝修支出實際上比日常支出減少了。因此，它仍然是同比增長的積極因素，但沒有以與日常支出和其他零售相同的速度增長。

Okay. Got it. That makes sense. And then, I guess secondly, are you guys sort of seeing any change in consumer behavior in regards to the inflationary environment in terms of sort of any substitution effects? Or anything that -- any color there would be helpful.

好的。知道了。那講得通。然後，我想其次，你們是否看到了消費者行為在通脹環境方面的任何變化，就任何替代效應而言？或者任何東西——那裡的任何顏色都會有幫助。

Yes. We're seeing a little bit of it. We believe that in terms of gas that there's -- certainly, it's significantly up year-over-year, but call it the volume of transactions indicate a certain level of substitution or decrease in consumption levels. And then across the other categories, nothing discernible at this point, but we do expect in the second half of this year, with the high rate of inflation, that consumers are going to make some choices and substitutions or decrease in consumptions will likely happen.

是的。我們看到了一點點。我們認為，就天然氣而言——當然，它同比顯著上升，但稱其為交易量表明一定程度的替代或消費水平下降。然後在其他類別中，目前還沒有什麼可辨別的，但我們確實預計在今年下半年，隨著通貨膨脹率的高企，消費者將做出一些選擇，替代品或消費量可能會減少。

Our next question will come from Kevin Barker with Piper Sandler.

我們的下一個問題將來自 Kevin Barker 和 Piper Sandler。

Just 1 last follow-up on the student loan side. You had -- the charge-offs ticked up, although they're fairly low still on student loans, but it is still higher than what we've seen from a quarterly run rate basis for the last few years. Is there anything related there to the investigation on why the charge-offs may have ticked higher just in this particular quarter given credit metrics have been extraordinarily good within that portfolio?

學生貸款方面只有最後一次跟進。你已經 - 沖銷了，雖然他們在學生貸款上仍然相當低，但它仍然高於我們從過去幾年的季度運行率基礎上看到的。鑑於該投資組合中的信用指標非常好，為什麼在這個特定季度的沖銷可能會增加，是否有任何與調查相關的信息？

Yes. No, those aren't linked. And actually, I would view it as sort of a onetime move, and we feel very good about the credit in our student loan portfolio.

是的。不，那些沒有聯繫。實際上，我認為這是一次性的舉動，我們對學生貸款組合中的信用感到非常滿意。

Okay. And then in regards to the outlook for NIM, I appreciate everything for this year. But as you look out -- further out, just given the yield curve today, do you expect some reversion back to your longer term NIM down to a low 10% just given deposit costs are likely to remain fairly elevated as we go into next year or maybe even continue to move higher, just given the short end of the curve moving higher combined with maybe a flattening on the long end? Is there anything you're seeing there that would cause NIM to maybe start to soften as we move into the beginning of next year?

好的。然後關於 NIM 的前景，我對今年的一切表示讚賞。但正如你所看到的——更遠一點，考慮到今天的收益率曲線，你是否預計你的長期淨息差會回落到 10% 的低點，因為隨著我們進入明年，存款成本可能會保持相當高的水平或者甚至可能繼續走高，只是考慮到曲線的短端走高，再加上長端可能趨於平緩？當我們進入明年年初時，你在那裡看到的任何東西會導致 NIM 可能開始軟化嗎？

Yes, good question. So I would say that. So my expectation says that -- is that NIM will peak this year. And there are a number of factors impacting it certainly. You mentioned deposit costs, that's going to kind of create some impact. We're going to have impacts on credit, which will impact it. But fundamentally, our funding mix has changed, which, I believe, will drive improved net interest margin versus historical levels.

是的，好問題。所以我會這麼說。所以我的預期是——NIM 將在今年達到頂峰。當然，有許多因素會影響它。你提到了存款成本，這會產生一些影響。我們將對信貸產生影響，這將對其產生影響。但從根本上說，我們的資金組合發生了變化，我相信這將推動淨息差與歷史水平相比有所提高。

Our next question will come from Mihir Bhatia with Bank of America.

我們的下一個問題將來自美國銀行的 Mihir Bhatia。

Maybe I'll start with just on the competitive intensity a little bit. You are staying quite disciplined on revolves and operating costs even as you drive growth. Could you talk a little bit about where your account growth is coming from? And the reason I ask is we've seen a few aggressive offers around cashback introduced in recent months. That's historically been your bailiwick. So I was curious if you are seeing any kind of impact from some of those offers out in the market.

也許我會從競爭強度開始。即使在推動增長的同時，您也會對周轉和運營成本保持嚴格的紀律。你能談談你的賬戶增長來自哪裡嗎？我問的原因是，最近幾個月我們看到了一些圍繞現金返還的激進優惠。從歷史上看，這一直是你的管轄範圍。所以我很好奇你是否看到市場上的一些報價產生了任何影響。

Yes. There are different competitors who will do different offers. We tend to try and be more consistent and sustainable. So we like the -- the double cash back for the first year has worked very well for us. So yes, someone will be $300, $500, you'll see different issuers doing very long-term balanced transfers. We just don't think that's really driving sustainable growth.

是的。有不同的競爭對手會提供不同的報價。我們傾向於嘗試更加一致和可持續。所以我們喜歡 - 第一年的雙倍現金返還對我們來說非常有效。所以是的，有人會是 300 美元、500 美元，你會看到不同的發行人進行非常長期的平衡轉賬。我們只是認為這並不能真正推動可持續增長。

And a lot of that promotional activity can drive sort of new accounts, but not necessarily long-term relationships. So we like our long-term focus and approach, and it has served us well in a variety of competitive environments.

很多促銷活動可以推動新客戶的發展，但不一定是長期關係。所以我們喜歡我們的長期關注和方法，它在各種競爭環境中為我們提供了很好的服務。

Okay. And then -- sorry, I don't mean to beat a dead horse here, but 1 last -- for me, just 1 question on the buyback suspension. Is that something that regulators require or encourage you to do while you get your arms around the servicing issues? Or was the decision to suspend buybacks is solely driven by you internally at DFS and the Board?

好的。然後 - 抱歉，我並不是要在這裡擊敗一匹死馬，但最後一匹 - 對我來說，只是關於回購暫停的 1 個問題。在您解決維修問題時，監管機構是否要求或鼓勵您這樣做？還是暫停回購的決定完全是由您在 DFS 和董事會內部推動的？

Yes. The decision was made by Discover.

是的。這個決定是由 Discover 做出的。

Our next question will come from Dominick Gabriele with Oppenheimer.

我們的下一個問題將來自 Dominick Gabriele 和 Oppenheimer。

I just -- I was wondering, how do you monitor want versus needs-based loan growth as the consumer might feel some pressure both on an individual and a portfolio level? How do you monitor that? Is there some internal data that perhaps we don't have access to that help you understand good borrowing behavior versus bad borrowing behavior outside of delinquency trends? I just have a follow-up.

我只是 - 我想知道，您如何監控需求與基於需求的貸款增長，因為消費者可能會在個人和投資組合層面感受到一些壓力？你如何監控它？是否有一些我們可能無法訪問的內部數據來幫助您了解在拖欠趨勢之外的良好藉貸行為與不良借貸行為？我只是有後續。

Yes. I mean it's a bit of a different answer for the portfolio, but for new accounts. But I would say for our new accounts, virtually all of it is want based, right? We're not accepting anyone who doesn't have significant availability on other credit cards outside of potentially our secured card where some of those people, we represent their first card. So it really is about want and having a better value proposition than they're seeing with their other cards.

是的。我的意思是，對於投資組合來說，答案有點不同，但對於新賬戶來說。但我想說，對於我們的新賬戶，幾乎所有這些都是基於需求的，對吧？我們不接受任何在其他信用卡上沒有大量可用性的人，除了可能是我們的安全卡，其中一些人，我們代表他們的第一張卡。所以這真的是關於想要和擁有比他們用其他卡片看到的更好的價值主張。

Okay. Great. And then I was just curious, how long out does your through-the-cycle loss expectation look out for changes in economic overlays? So does it include today, let's say, through the fourth quarter of 2023? Given our analysis, we see that, that's the rough timing where some of these macro dominoes might fall into place with possibly higher unemployment related net charge-offs.

好的。偉大的。然後我只是好奇，您的整個週期損失預期會在多長時間內關注經濟覆蓋的變化？那麼它是否包括今天，比如說，到 2023 年第四季度？鑑於我們的分析，我們看到，這些宏觀多米諾骨牌中的一些可能會出現與失業相關的淨沖銷可能更高的大致時機。

So how does the waiting work and -- from a timing perspective of when you think an event may actually begin to occur and affect either your growth algorithm or your loss algorithm? Anything you can provide on that would be really great.

那麼等待是如何工作的？從時間的角度來看，您認為事件何時可能真正開始發生並影響您的增長算法或損失算法？你能提供的任何東西都會非常棒。

Yes. I would say we tend to look out roughly 4 to 5 years, but it is not as sensitive in terms of whether it's in 18 months or 2 years or 2.5 years. If you think about this is a long-term product and the cash flows associated with a credit card. And if you're not careful, you can find yourself whipping around your new account criteria every week based on sort of the latest change in economic forecasts.

是的。我會說我們傾向於看大約 4 到 5 年，但就 18 個月、2 年或 2.5 年而言，它並不那麼敏感。如果你認為這是一個長期的產品和與信用卡相關的現金流。如果你不小心，你會發現自己每週都會根據經濟預測的最新變化來調整你的新賬戶標準。

So while we can react quickly, if it's far enough out, you're not going to see sort of continuous adjustment for that. And then for the portfolio, it's much more driven by account level dynamics, we're really looking at the risk of individual accounts.

因此，雖然我們可以快速做出反應，但如果它足夠遠，你將不會看到這種持續調整。然後對於投資組合，它更多地受賬戶層面的動態驅動，我們真正關注的是個人賬戶的風險。

Our next question will come from Bob Napoli with William Blair.

我們的下一個問題將來自 Bob Napoli 和 William Blair。

Really solid fundamental results, great to see. Just on the network, leveraging the network partnerships, when you have the Ariba, CECL, but just having this global payments network. And just any update you can on your efforts to leverage that network. I know Ariba B2B payments. Is there anything else on the table there? I mean that continues to grow nicely. But just any thoughts there to make the network payments portion of the business a larger part of the company?

真正紮實的基本結果，很高興看到。只是在網絡上，利用網絡合作夥伴關係，當您擁有 Ariba、CECL 時，只是擁有這個全球支付網絡。以及您可以利用該網絡所做的任何更新。我知道 Ariba B2B 付款。桌子上還有其他東西嗎？我的意思是繼續很好地增長。但是，是否有任何想法可以使業務的網絡支付部分成為公司更大的一部分？

Yes. Great question. So I did talk about one of our latest network-to-network deals. So we continue to invest and expand acceptance. And some of those deals to also generate volume and more cross-border volume for us. We remain in a wide range of discussions with different fintech players, truly around the world, but we tend not to comment on deals.

是的。好問題。所以我確實談到了我們最新的網絡對網絡交易之一。因此，我們繼續投資並擴大接受度。其中一些交易也為我們創造了交易量和更多的跨境交易量。我們仍在與世界各地的不同金融科技參與者進行廣泛的討論，但我們傾向於不對交易發表評論。

I would point out too, though, we see a lot of value from the network, not just in the Payment Services segment, but for the differentiation and capabilities it gives our card issuing business and, in particular, the support it provides for rewards on debit, which is a real differentiator in the marketplace.

不過，我還要指出，我們從網絡中看到了很多價值，不僅在支付服務領域，還在於它為我們的發卡業務提供的差異化和功能，特別是它為獎勵提供的支持借記卡，這是市場上真正的差異化因素。

My follow-up is, I guess, rewards on debit. It seems like a pretty good opportunity for Discover. Any updated information you can give us on cashback debit and the importance to your business over the next 5 years or potential benefits from that?

我想我的後續行動是藉記卡獎勵。對於 Discover 來說，這似乎是一個很好的機會。您可以向我們提供有關現金返還借記的任何更新信息以及未來 5 年對您的業務的重要性或從中獲得的潛在利益？

Yes. I think long term, it will be really exciting and a great benefit for the business and provide another entry point into the franchise versus most of our customers now coming from the credit card. We continue to be deliberate in terms of how we grow that. We want to make sure that we're really solid operationally, that we have the right fraud prevention in place. But it's a business we're going to scale for the long term. And again, really excited about some of the early signs we're seeing in terms of cost per account and the usage from some of the customers we're putting on.

是的。我認為從長遠來看，這將是非常令人興奮的，對企業來說是一個巨大的好處，並提供另一個進入特許經營權的切入點，而我們的大多數客戶現在都來自信用卡。我們將繼續深思熟慮如何發展它。我們希望確保我們在運營上真的很穩固，我們有適當的欺詐預防措施。但這是一項我們將長期擴展的業務。再一次，我們對每個帳戶成本和我們正在投放的一些客戶的使用情況方面看到的一些早期跡象感到非常興奮。

Our next question will come from Don Fandetti with Wells Fargo.

我們的下一個問題將來自富國銀行的 Don Fandetti。

John, I was wondering on the funding side, if you could talk a little bit about the ABS market. I know you've been a bit more active and so have other card issuers. Are you pleased with sort of the post-pandemic from a depth in pricing and leverage perspective and also the same question in terms of brokered CDs?

約翰，我想知道在資金方面，您能否談談 ABS 市場。我知道您已經比較活躍了，其他發卡機構也是如此。從定價和槓桿的角度來看，您對大流行後的某種程度感到滿意嗎？在經紀 CD 方面也存在同樣的問題？

Yes. Great question. So I'm going to kind of break it into kind of 2 categories. So very pleased with the team's execution when we go into the ABS market. I feel like the offerings are solid and the execution has been very, very good. The other side of the coin is when we were in that low-rate environment, the all-in rates on some of those transactions were unbelievable. We were down at 71 basis points.

是的。好問題。所以我將把它分成兩類。當我們進入 ABS 市場時，對團隊的執行非常滿意。我覺得產品很紮實，執行非常非常好。硬幣的另一面是，當我們處於低利率環境時，其中一些交易的全部利率令人難以置信。我們下跌了 71 個基點。

So it took me personally a little bit to come to terms with something in the 2s or 3s right now. But that's a function of where we are and relative to what we're driving in terms of top line yield, it's still super-efficient, secured and an important funding source.

所以我個人花了一點時間來接受現在 2 或 3 中的某些東西。但這取決於我們所處的位置以及相對於我們在頂線收益率方面的推動，它仍然是超高效、安全和重要的資金來源。

The rest of the funding stack continues to be stable. The broker CDs that you mentioned, they're pricing higher than our online deposits. And we're trying to get the right balance in terms of ensuring we were competitive, that we're not a market leader in terms of pricing -- deposit pricing decisions, but also not having to kind of lean into more expensive funding sources. But we'll continue to evolve there and make sure we're making good, efficient choices for the franchise.

其餘的資金堆棧繼續保持穩定。您提到的經紀人 CD 的定價高於我們的在線存款。我們正試圖在確保我們具有競爭力方面取得適當的平衡，我們在定價方面不是市場領導者 - 存款定價決策，但也不必依賴更昂貴的資金來源。但我們將繼續在那裡發展，並確保我們為特許經營做出好的、有效的選擇。

Our next question will come from Arren Cyganovich.

我們的下一個問題將來自 Arren Cyganovich。

The stronger loan growth that you've seen recently and increasing your guidance for the full year, how much of normalizing of payment rates is included in that versus just the continued momentum that you're having in acquiring new accounts?

您最近看到的更強勁的貸款增長並增加了全年的指導，其中包括多少支付率的正常化，而不是您在獲得新賬戶方面的持續動力？

Yes, Arren, thanks for the question. Very little. So we modeled out a sustained high payment rate normalization back in through 2023. And frankly, if the payment rate should reduce, that provides some more energy for growth. We haven't anticipated that -- the drivers of growth have been kind of the strong sales performance, the new accounts that we put on the books in the later part of '20 and into '21 and into this year and customers putting our card top of wallet.

是的，阿倫，謝謝你的問題。很少。因此，我們模擬了到 2023 年持續的高支付率正常化。坦率地說，如果支付率應該降低，這將為增長提供更多能量。我們沒有預料到——增長的驅動力是強勁的銷售業績、我們在 20 年後期、21 年和今年的新賬戶以及客戶提供我們的卡錢包頂部。

So we've been really pleased and feel like the balance of kind of risk versus opportunity in terms of additional growth is probably more on the opportunity side at this point.

所以我們真的很高興，並且覺得在額外增長方面風險與機會的平衡可能更多地在機會方面。

Okay. And then secondly, the internal investigation, obviously, that's internal. Have you discussed this with the regulators already? Are they involved? I just want to know if there's another leg, so to speak, to drop with respect to this.

好的。其次，內部調查顯然是內部調查。您是否已經與監管機構討論過這個問題？他們參與了嗎？我只是想知道是否還有另一條腿，可以這麼說，就此放棄。

Yes. That's something I can't comment on. I would say though, in terms of internal, just to reinforce, it is independent from the Board. But I can't comment on our discussions with regulators.

是的。這是我無法評論的。不過，我想說的是，就內部而言，只是為了加強，它獨立於董事會。但我無法評論我們與監管機構的討論。

This concludes today's Q&A. I would now like to turn the program back over to Mr. Wasserstrom for any additional or closing remarks.

今天的問答到此結束。我現在想將該計劃轉回給 Wasserstrom 先生，以獲取任何補充或結束語。

Well, thank you all for joining us. The IR team is available all day, so please reach us with any additional questions, and have a great day.

嗯，謝謝大家加入我們。 IR 團隊全天為您服務，如有任何其他問題，請聯繫我們，祝您度過愉快的一天。

Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's event. You may now disconnect.

謝謝你。女士們，先生們，今天的活動到此結束。您現在可以斷開連接。