發現金融 (DFS) 2023 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good morning. My name is Chelsea, and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the Third Quarter 2023 Discover Financial Services Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions)

早安.我叫切爾西，今天我將擔任你們的會議操作員。在此，我歡迎大家參加 2023 年第三季 Discover Financial Services 收益電話會議。 （操作員說明）

I will now turn the call over to Mr. Eric Wasserstrom, Head of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

我現在將把電話轉給投資者關係主管 Eric Wasserstrom 先生。請繼續。

Thank you, Chelsea, and welcome to this morning's call. I'll begin on Slide 2 of our earnings presentation, which you can find in the financial section of our Investor Relations website, investorrelations.discover.com. Our discussion today contains certain forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially. Please refer to our notices regarding forward-looking statements that appear in our third quarter earnings press release and presentation. Our call today will include remarks from our Interim CEO, John Owen; and John Greene, our Chief Financial Officer.

謝謝切爾西，歡迎參加今天早上的電話會議。我將從我們的收益簡報的幻燈片 2 開始，您可以在我們的投資者關係網站 Investorrelations.discover.com 的財務部分找到該簡報。我們今天的討論包含某些前瞻性陳述，這些陳述存在風險和不確定性，可能導致實際結果出現重大差異。請參閱我們關於第三季收益新聞稿和簡報中出現的前瞻性聲明的通知。我們今天的電話會議將包括我們的臨時執行長約翰歐文 (John Owen) 的演講；和我們的財務長約翰·格林。

After we conclude our formal comments, there will be time for a question-and-answer session. During the Q&A session, you will be permitted to ask one question, followed by one follow-up question. After your follow-up question, please return to the queue. Now I'd to turn the call over to John.

在我們結束正式評論後，將有時間進行問答環節。在問答環節中，您可以提出一個問題，然後再提出一個後續問題。提出後續問題後，請返回隊列。現在我要把電話轉給約翰。

Thank you, Eric, and thanks to our listeners for joining today's call. As I shared a few months ago, I had three priorities in my role as interim CEO. First is continued delivering a great customer experience at every touch point, which we do by providing our customers an award-winning service and products. At the heart of this is a team of more than 20,000 employees connected by common values and a shared mission to help people achieve a brighter financial future.

謝謝你，艾瑞克，也感謝我們的聽眾參加今天的電話會議。正如我幾個月前分享的那樣，作為臨時首席執行官，我有三個優先事項。首先是繼續在每個接觸點提供卓越的客戶體驗，為此我們為客戶提供屢獲殊榮的服務和產品。其核心是一個由 20,000 多名員工組成的團隊，他們透過共同的價值觀和共同的使命聯繫在一起，幫助人們實現更光明的財務未來。

My second priority is to advance our culture of compliance. We've made significant strides in this area. By now, you've all had the opportunity to review the consent order issued by the FDIC in September. Consistent with the terms of this consent order, we have made meaningful investments in improving our corporate governance and enterprise risk management capabilities and expect to drive further enhancements across the organization in the coming quarters. We've also started the process of engaging with our merchant partners on the card misclassification issue, remain in active dialogue with our regulators on this topic. The resolution of this issue is likely to be complex. We anticipate it will take several quarters fully resolved.

我的第二要務是推廣我們的合規文化。我們在這一領域取得了重大進展。到目前為止，你們都有機會查看 FDIC 於 9 月簽發的同意令。根據該同意令的條款，我們在改善公司治理和企業風險管理能力方面進行了有意義的投資，並期望在未來幾季推動整個組織的進一步增強。我們也開始與我們的商家合作夥伴就卡片錯誤分類問題進行接觸，並就這一主題與我們的監管機構保持積極對話。這個問題的解決可能很複雜。我們預計需要幾個季度才能完全解決。

My third priority is to sustain our strong financial performance. In the third quarter, revenue was up 17% year-over-year driven by strong asset growth, while credit losses continued to perform in line with expected ranges. In addition, we are off to a strong start with the launch of our Cashback Debit product. We continue to believe that this product will be an important channel to welcome many new customers into our company.

我的第三個首要任務是維持我們強勁的財務表現。第三季度，在資產強勁成長的推動下，營收年增17%，而信貸損失持續符合預期範圍。此外，我們推出現金回饋金融卡產品，為我們開了一個好的開始。我們仍然相信該產品將成為歡迎許多新客戶進入我們公司的重要管道。

To highlight the Discover experience and support our brand and banking products, we're proud to have just introduced a new national advertising campaign featuring celebrity spokesperson, Jennifer Coolidge. As we continue to advance our priorities, we are focused on preserving, enhancing the elements to make Discover a great place to work.

為了突顯 Discover 體驗並支持我們的品牌和銀行產品，我們很自豪剛剛推出了由名人代言人 Jennifer Coolidge 主演的新的全國廣告活動。在我們繼續推進我們的優先事項的同時，我們致力於保留和增強使 Discover 成為理想工作場所的要素。

Last month, we were ranked among the 2023 Fortune Best Workplaces in Financial Services and Insurance. This accolade builds upon our recognition as one of Fortune's 100 Best Companies to Work For.

上個月，我們躋身《財富》2023 年金融服務和保險業最佳工作場所之列。這項榮譽是基於我們被《財星》雜誌評選為 100 家最適合工作的公司之一而獲得的。

Before handing the call off to John Greene, I will briefly comment on the CEO search. The Board is considering several excellent candidates, both internal and external. We remain confident that we will identify the next outstanding leader for this organization in the coming months. In summary, we continue to target excellence in all parts of our business, driving sustainable long-term financial performance.

在將電話轉交給約翰·格林之前，我將簡要評論一下執行長的搜尋。董事會正在考慮幾位優秀的內部和外部候選人。我們仍然相信，我們將在未來幾個月內為該組織物色下一位傑出領導者。總之，我們繼續在業務的各個方面追求卓越，推動可持續的長期財務表現。

I will now hand the call off to John to review our results in more detail.

我現在將把電話交給約翰，讓他更詳細地審查我們的結果。

Thank you, John, and good morning, everyone. I'll start with our financial summary results on Slide 4. In this quarter, we reported net income of $683 million, down from just over $1 billion in the prior year quarter. Provision expense grew by $929 million, reflecting an increase in reserves and charge-offs, strong loan growth along with changing macroeconomic and household liquidity conditions drove the increase to our reserve balance.

謝謝約翰，大家早安。我將從投影片 4 上的財務摘要結果開始。本季度，我們公佈的淨利潤為 6.83 億美元，低於去年同期的 10 億多美元。準備金支出增加了 9.29 億美元，反映出準備金和沖銷的增加、貸款的強勁增長以及宏觀經濟和家庭流動性狀況的變化推動了準備金餘額的增加。

Charge-offs increased due to portfolio seasoning and remain in line with expectations. Revenue grew 17%, deposits grew 23% and expenses increased 6% year-over-year. Further details are reflected on Slide 5. Net interest income was up $479 million year-over-year or 17%. Our net interest margin ended the quarter at 10.95%, down 10 basis points from the prior year and down 11 basis points sequentially. This decrease was driven by higher funding costs which were partially offset by the benefits from higher prime rates.

由於投資組合老化，沖銷有所增加，並與預期相符。營收年增 17%，存款成長 23%，支出較去年同期成長 6%。更多詳情請參閱投影片 5。淨利息收入年增 4.79 億美元，即 17%。本季末，我們的淨利差為 10.95%，比上年同期下降 10 個基點，比上一季下降 11 個基點。這一下降是由較高的融資成本推動的，而較高的優惠利率帶來的好處部分抵消了融資成本的上升。

Receivable growth was robust. Card increased 16% year-over-year, reflecting new account growth and a lower payment rate versus the prior year. The payment rate declined about 30 basis points quarter-over-quarter, but remains just under 200 basis points above 2019 levels. Sales volume was relatively flat for the quarter. Personal loans were up 25%, driven by strength in originations over the past year and lower payment rates. We continue to experience strong consumer demand while staying disciplined in our underwriting. Student loans were up 1%. Deposit growth in the quarter was solid, with average consumer deposits up 23% year-over-year and 4% sequentially, our direct-to-consumer balances grew $4 billion.

應收帳款成長強勁。卡年增 16%，反映出新帳戶成長和支付率較上年下降。支付率較上月下降約 30 個基點，但仍比 2019 年水準高出近 200 個基點。本季銷量相對持平。受過去一年發放量強勁和還款率下降的推動，個人貸款增加了 25%。我們持續感受到強勁的消費者需求，同時保持承保紀律。學生貸款增加了1%。本季存款成長穩健，平均消費者存款年增 23%，季增 4%，我們的直接面向消費者餘額成長了 40 億美元。

Looking at other revenue on Slide 6. Noninterest income increased $97 million or 16%. This was primarily driven by higher transaction processing revenue from our PULSE business, an increase in loan fee income and strong net discount and interchange revenue.

查看投影片 6 上的其他收入。非利息收入增加了 9,700 萬美元，即 16%。這主要是由於我們的 PULSE 業務交易處理收入增加、貸款費用收入增加以及強勁的淨折扣和交換收入所推動的。

Moving to expenses on Slide 7. Total operating expenses were up $86 million or 6% year-over-year and up 4% from the prior quarter. This increase is driven primarily by investments in our compliance and risk management programs, and is reflected across several of our expense line items.

轉到幻燈片 7 上的費用。總營運費用年增 8,600 萬美元，即 6%，比上一季增長 4%。這一成長主要是由我們對合規和風險管理計劃的投資所推動的，並反映在我們的幾個費用項目中。

Looking at our major expense categories. Compensation costs were up $24 million or 4%, primarily from increased head count. The increase in information processing expense was driven by software licensing renewals, professional fees reflect an increase in third-party support as we focus on accelerating our compliance and risk management efforts.

看看我們的主要費用類別。薪酬成本增加了 2,400 萬美元，即 4%，主要是由於員工數量的增加。資訊處理費用的增加是由軟體授權續約推動的，專業費用反映了第三方支援的增加，因為我們專注於加快合規性和風險管理工作。

Moving to credit performance on Slide 8. Total net charge-offs were 3.52%, 181 basis points higher than the prior year and up 30 basis points from the prior quarter. In Card, we continue to see the effects of seasoning of newer accounts, which have higher delinquency rates than older vintages. Losses remain consistent with targeted ranges. These newer vintages support strong long-term profitability.

轉到投影片 8 的信貸表現。總淨沖銷率為 3.52%，比前一年高 181 個基點，比上一季高 30 個基點。在 Card 中，我們繼續看到新帳戶老化的影響，這些帳戶的拖欠率高於舊帳戶。損失與目標範圍保持一致。這些較新的年份支持強勁的長期獲利能力。

Turning to the allowance for credit losses on Slide 9. This quarter, we increased our reserves by $601 million, and our reserve rate increased by 22 basis points over 7%. The reserve increase reflects a modest deteriorating macroeconomic outlook, increasing delinquencies and higher loan balances. Our macro assumptions reflect a relatively strong labor market, but also consumer headwinds from declining savings rates and increasing debt earnings.

轉向幻燈片 9 中的信貸損失準備金。本季度，我們增加了準備金 6.01 億美元，準備金率提高了 22 個基點，超過 7%。準備金增加反映了宏觀經濟前景適度惡化、拖欠率增加和貸款餘額增加。我們的宏觀假設反映了相對強勁的勞動市場，但也反映了儲蓄率下降和債務收益增加對消費者的阻力。

Looking at Slide 10. Our common equity Tier 1 for the period was 11.6%. The sequential decline of 10 basis points was driven largely by our strong organic asset growth. We declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.70 per share of common stock, concluding on Slide 11 with our outlook. We now expect our loan growth to be in the mid-teens as declining payment rates are offsetting the impact of slowing sales. There is no change to our NIM expectations to be approximately 11% for the full year. We're maintaining our expectations for operating expenses to be up low double digits, and there is no change to our expected range for net charge-offs to be between 3.4% and 3.6% for the year.

看投影片 10。我們這段期間的普通股一級資本為 11.6%。環比下降 10 個基點主要是由於我們強勁的有機資產成長。我們宣布季度現金股利為每股普通股 0.70 美元，幻燈片 11 的最後部分是我們的展望。我們現在預計我們的貸款成長將在十幾歲左右，因為付款率下降抵消了銷售放緩的影響。我們對全年淨利差 (NIM) 的預期保持不變，約為 11%。我們維持營運費用成長兩位數的預期，今年淨沖銷率的預期範圍沒有變化，為 3.4% 至 3.6%。

In conclusion, our business fundamentals remain strong. We continue to generate solid financial results while building out our compliance and risk management capabilities and prudently investing in actions that drive sustainable long-term performance.

總之，我們的業務基礎依然強勁。我們持續創造穩健的財務業績，同時增強我們的合規和風險管理能力，並審慎投資於推動可持續長期業績的行動。

With that, I'll turn the call back to our operator to open the line for Q&A.

這樣，我會將電話轉回給我們的接線員，以開通問答線路。

(Operator Instructions) And we'll take our first question from Sanjay Sakhrani with KBW.

（操作員說明）我們將接受 KBW 的 Sanjay Sakhrani 提出的第一個問題。

Just wanted to get a little bit more on the reserve build. As we look ahead, John Greene, could you just talk about like how we should think about that reserve rate increasing from here because obviously, you made some adjustments, but you've said the credit numbers are performing pretty consistent with your expectations. So is it a reflection on how you see things unfolding next year. Maybe you can just talk about the relation and how we should think about that reserve coverage on a go-forward basis, assuming the unemployment assumptions don't change much.

只是想多了解一點儲備建設。當我們展望未來時，約翰·格林，您能否談談我們應該如何考慮從現在開始增加準備金率，因為顯然您做了一些調整，但您說過信貸數字的表現與您的預期非常一致。這是否反映了您對明年事情發展的看法？也許你可以談談這種關係，以及我們應該如何在未來的基礎上考慮準備金覆蓋率，假設失業假設沒有太大變化。

Thanks, Sanjay. I appreciate the question. So let me back up and just give a little bit of overview in terms of what happened in the quarter and why we increased the reserve rate. So as we took a look at the portfolio performance and the loan growth, obviously, we had to make a reserve build for loan growth, and that represented about 50% of the $600 million. The other 50% or approximately $300 million reflected our view on the macros.

謝謝，桑傑。我很欣賞這個問題。因此，讓我回顧一下本季發生的情況以及我們提高準備金率的原因。因此，當我們查看投資組合表現和貸款成長時，顯然，我們必須為貸款成長建立準備金，約佔 6 億美元的 50%。另外 50% 或約 3 億美元反映了我們對宏觀的看法。

Now while the unemployment numbers remain relatively in line and strong by historical standards, we are seeing some indications of stress. And if we go back to the pandemic and the learnings there, we found that certainly unemployment remains an important factor in terms of reserves, but there's other factors. And what we've done over the past year is try to build into those other factors, into our loss models and reserve models, and we've done that.

現在，雖然以歷史標準衡量，失業率仍然相對穩定且強勁，但我們看到了一些壓力跡象。如果我們回到大流行病和那裡的經驗教訓，我們會發現，就儲備而言，失業當然仍然是一個重要因素，但還有其他因素。我們過去一年所做的就是嘗試將其他因素納入我們的損失模型和準備金模型中，我們已經做到了。

So as we took a look at household net worth and savings rate, both have deteriorated, and we're seeing deterioration more specifically in lower FICO bands, so we use those macro factors in order to capture loss content that we felt was appropriate from a reserving standpoint.

因此，當我們查看家庭淨資產和儲蓄率時，兩者都惡化了，而且我們看到更具體的是較低 FICO 等級的惡化，因此我們使用這些宏觀因素來捕捉我們認為適當的損失內容保留立場。

So as we look at reserve levels today and into the future, there's a couple of things that I'll say, are just kind of general process items. First, it will be dependent on the macro views and whether they remain stable or deteriorating. Second, certainly, the portfolio performance will be a very, very important factor. And then third will be the timing and trajectory of loss content. So as losses become closer in terms of our projection period, their probability adjusted and therefore could increase reserve right.

因此，當我們審視今天和未來的儲備水準時，我要說的幾件事只是一般流程項目。首先，這將取決於宏觀觀點以及宏觀觀點是保持穩定還是惡化。其次，當然，投資組合的表現將會是非常非常重要的因素。第三是內容遺失的時間和軌跡。因此，隨著我們預測期的臨近，損失的機率會調整，因此可能會增加儲備權。

Now there's a lot of detail that I just provided. So let me give a view of our expectations. So first, the portfolio is performing generally well, although we are seeing mildly increased stress at the lower FICO bands to mid FICO bands. We're also seeing that 2022 vintage perform slightly worse than '21, '23, although highly profitable.

現在我剛剛提供了很多細節。讓我談談我們的期望。首先，儘管我們看到較低 FICO 區間到中等 FICO 區間的壓力略有增加，但該投資組合總體表現良好。我們也看到 2022 年年份的表現略差於 21 年和 23 年，儘管利潤很高。

So as we look forward to '24, we'll run our process and adjust the reserve as we deem most appropriate. An important piece will also be the charge-off trajectory. So what we've said previously is we expect charge-offs to peak sometime around the midpoint of the year to the second half of the year -- second half of 2024. So if we don't see a slowing in delinquency rates between now and first quarter, certainly, that could be an indication that we'll have to take incremental provisions. So a lot there, hopefully, enough for you to be able to digest and move forward with.

因此，當我們展望 24 年時，我們將運行我們的流程並以我們認為最合適的方式調整儲備。一個重要的部分也是沖銷軌跡。因此，我們之前說過，我們預計沖銷將在今年中點至下半年（即 2024 年下半年）的某個時間達到高峰。因此，如果從現在起我們沒有看到拖欠率放緩當然，第一季度這可能表明我們將不得不採取增量撥備。希望這裡有很多內容足以讓您消化並繼續前進。

That's great. And just under the banner of sort of regulatory stuff, question number one, it doesn't seem like there's a whole lot to update in terms of other actions. We obviously got the consent order. And then I saw in the perspective for 2023, you still have a pause for the capital management piece, not any change to that. So could you just give us a sense of sort of how to think about that unpausing of the share repurchase. I know John Owen mentioned it might take several quarters to resolve the merchant issue. So just trying to reconcile these -- those comments.

那太棒了。就第一個問題而言，在監管方面的旗幟下，其他行動方面似乎沒有太多需要更新的內容。我們顯然得到了同意令。然後我從 2023 年的角度來看，資本管理部分仍然暫停，沒有任何變化。那麼您能否讓我們了解如何考慮取消暫停股票回購。我知道約翰歐文提到可能需要幾個季度才能解決商家問題。所以只是試著協調這些評論。

Yes, I'll take that one, too, Sanjay. So let me first start out by saying our capital allocation priorities aren't changed. So invest in the business and return excess capital to shareholders. That's very clear from our business model, our management team and our Board. The second piece to the answer relates to our continued work on the Card tiering issue and other governance issues. So we're making reasonably good progress on both of those.

是的，我也買那個，桑傑。首先我要說的是，我們的資本配置優先事項並沒有改變。因此，投資業務並將多餘資本回饋給股東。從我們的商業模式、管理團隊和董事會中可以清楚看出這一點。答案的第二部分涉及我們在卡分級問題和其他治理問題上的持續工作。因此，我們在這兩方面都取得了相當好的進展。

And what we'll do as part of our 2024 planning process is we'll make a recommendation to the Board regarding our capital actions and specifically the buyback, and then we'll provide an update on our January call associated with our fourth quarter earnings.

作為 2024 年規劃流程的一部分，我們將向董事會提出有關我們的資本行動，特別是回購的建議，然後我們將提供與第四季度收益相關的 1 月份電話會議的最新情況。

Let me just add a little bit to John's answer on kind of where we are from a regulatory standpoint. The FDIC consent order that was made public this month related really to findings from end of 2021, looking back. As we've said before, we've made significant investments in our risk management and compliance capabilities over the last 18 months.

讓我對約翰的回答補充一點，從監管的角度來看我們所處的情況。回顧過去，本月公佈的 FDIC 同意令確實與 2021 年底的調查結果相關。正如我們之前所說，過去 18 個月我們在風險管理和合規能力方面進行了大量投資。

From a spending standpoint, we've increased our spending from $225 million in 2022 to about $460 million in 2023. What I would tell you is we've made good progress resolving many of our issues, but we still have a significant amount of work to do before we're satisfied with where we are.

從支出的角度來看，我們的支出從2022 年的2.25 億美元增加到2023 年的約4.6 億美元。我要告訴你的是，我們在解決許多問題方面取得了良好進展，但仍有大量工作要做在我們對現狀感到滿意之前要做的事情。

On the card misclassification issue, it's not part of that FDIC consent order, that's a separate matter. And where we are on that, as we've mentioned before, we did have an outside law firms, completed an investigation on the card misclassification issue. That work is substantially complete at this point in time. We've shared that result of that with our Board of Directors and also with our regulators. And at this point in time, we're awaiting feedback from our regulators.

關於卡片錯誤分類問題，它不是 FDIC 同意令的一部分，這是一個單獨的問題。正如我們之前提到的，我們確實有一家外部律師事務所完成了對卡片錯誤分類問題的調查。目前這項工作已基本完成。我們已與董事會和監管機構分享了這一結果。目前，我們正在等待監管機構的回饋。

Our next question will come from Bill Carcache with Wolfe Research.

我們的下一個問題將來自沃爾夫研究中心的比爾·卡卡什。

I wanted to follow up on the reserve rate comments, John Greene. You referenced several macro variables impacting the reserve and you also cited higher delinquencies, which are more idiosyncratic. Some investors are concerned that rising DQs may be a function of more than just seasoning.

我想跟進有關準備金率的評論，約翰·格林。您提到了影響準備金的幾個宏觀變量，並且還提到了較高的拖欠率，這是比較特殊的。一些投資者擔心 DQ 的上升可能不僅僅是調味的結果。

Maybe could you just help us with what your response would be to the concern that some investors have expressed that the outsized reserve build is a sign that Discover may have reached for growth too aggressively during the pandemic and is now facing the consequences perhaps what could ultimately end up being greater credit degradation in 2024 and possibly beyond particularly since we're still in an environment where the unemployment rate is 3.5%.

也許您能幫助我們回答一下您對一些投資者的擔憂的回應嗎？一些投資者表示，巨額儲備建設表明Discover可能在大流行期間過於激進地實現了增長，現在正面臨著最終可能發生的後果。到2024 年，甚至可能更久，信用退化最終會更加嚴重，特別是因為我們仍然處於失業率為3.5% 的環境中。

Thanks, Bill. So let me go back a little bit and be real clear about what happened at the second half of '21 and '22 in terms of originations. So second half of '21, we resumed and we went back to our traditional credit box. In the early part of '22, we continued with that traditional Discover credit box. We did do a test in marginal prime and near prime, which we turned on. We saw the results and we turned off in the second quarter or early third quarter of '22.

謝謝，比爾。因此，讓我回顧一下，真正清楚地了解 21 世紀和 22 世紀下半年在起源方面發生的事情。因此，21 年下半年，我們恢復了工作，回到了傳統的信用箱。 22 年初，我們繼續使用傳統的 Discover 信用箱。我們確實在邊際素數和近素數處進行了測試，並將其打開。我們看到了結果，並在 22 年第二季或第三季初關閉了。

So about 6 months of origination, not dramatic volume by any means, but certainly a test was a good opportunity to learn to see if we could capture some profitable share. What we found was those accounts weren't meeting our return of volatility thresholds. So they were shut down.

因此，大約有 6 個月的時間，無論如何，銷量都不是很大，但測試無疑是一個很好的機會，可以了解我們是否能夠獲得一些盈利份額。我們發現這些帳戶沒有達到我們的波動率回報閾值。所以他們被關閉了。

The rest of the '22 vintage was within the traditional credit box that Discover had. And '23 remains there, although we're peeling back. I will say this, the '22 vintage was certainly outsized as a result of demand and great execution from our marketing team. The profitability of that still remains very, very strong in the short term, medium term and long term. So if we're going to do it all over again, at this point, we'd certainly answer definitively. Yes, we would continue to originate the loans that we put on the books. But the vintage is significantly larger than other vintages. So the natural loss content of new originations is somewhere between 12 and 24 months. And we expect that to play out. And as I said, the delinquencies and charge-offs to peak sometime in 2024. So I hope that is helpful in terms of giving a little bit of color in terms of the process we went through, our risk tolerance and what we expect to see from those vintages.

其餘 22 年年份的酒都在 Discover 的傳統信用箱內。儘管我們正在剝離，但 23 仍然存在。我要說的是，由於我們行銷團隊的需求和出色的執行力，'22 年份酒無疑是超大型的。從短期、中期和長期來看，其獲利能力仍然非常非常強勁。因此，如果我們要重來一次，此時我們肯定會給出明確的答案。是的，我們將繼續發放記入帳簿的貸款。但該年份的年份明顯大於其他年份。因此，新產品的自然損失量約為 12 至 24 個月。我們預計這將會發生。正如我所說，拖欠和沖銷將在 2024 年某個時候達到頂峰。因此，我希望這有助於為我們所經歷的流程、我們的風險承受能力以及我們期望看到的情況提供一些色彩。來自那些年份。

Yes. That's helpful. I appreciate that. If I could ask a follow-up of John Owen. Could you speak to the possibility of potentially I guess, your overall interest level in potentially pursuing strategic alternatives for any of the other businesses, whether that be student lending or anything else. Or is that more likely to wait -- more likely to hold off until the new CEO kind of comes on Board, which you mentioned is probably in the next several months?

是的。這很有幫助。我很感激。如果我可以問約翰歐文的後續行動。我猜您能否談談您對任何其他業務（無論是學生貸款還是其他業務）可能尋求戰略替代方案的整體興趣水平。還是更有可能等待——更有可能推遲，直到新任執行長上任，你提到這可能會在接下來的幾個月內？

Yes. Happy to talk about that. As you know, we really can't speculate or talk about rumors or selling parts of the business. What I can tell you is part of our strategic planning process that we do every year is to evaluate all of our businesses for returns and fit from a strategic standpoint. We do that as an annual process. We are going through that process as we speak. But again, that's something we do as part of our annual planning process.

是的。很高興談論這個。如您所知，我們確實不能猜測或談論謠言或出售部分業務。我可以告訴您的是，我們每年所做的策略規劃流程的一部分是從策略角度評估我們所有業務的回報和契合度。我們將其作為年度流程。正如我們所說，我們正在經歷這個過程。但同樣，這是我們年度規劃流程的一部分。

Our next question will come from Ryan Nash with Goldman Sachs.

我們的下一個問題將來自高盛的瑞安·納許。

So John, you reiterated the expense guidance for '23, which is obviously a positive. And I'm sure you're going through the budgeting process right now. But I guess based on what you know today regarding the consent order, the work that John Owen, that you referenced that you're doing, you've made substantial progress plus overall inflation. Any sense for what expense growth is going to look like into 2024? Maybe just talk about some of the moving pieces that you expect to drive the expense base next year?

約翰，您重申了 23 年的費用指導，這顯然是積極的。我確信您現在正在經歷預算流程。但我想，根據您今天所了解的關於同意令的信息，以及約翰歐文（John Owen）提到的您正在做的工作，您已經取得了實質性進展，加上整體通膨。您知道 2024 年費用成長如何嗎？也許只是談談您預計明年會推動支出基礎的一些變化因素？

Sure. I'm not going to be real specific on '24. We're still in the process of building out the budget, and we're yet to share our recommendation with the Board. But I can give you a general kind of direction of what we're seeing. So the first point I think is important to put out there is that we continue to target our efficiency ratio to be below 40%.

當然。我不會具體說明 '24'。我們仍在製定預算，尚未與董事會分享我們的建議。但我可以為您提供我們所看到的總體方向。因此，我認為需要指出的第一點是，我們繼續將效率比設定為低於 40%。

Now that's over the medium term. Obviously, our execution this year with the revenue growth and even with substantial investments in compliance and other areas of the business shows an efficiency ratio significantly below 40%. But over the midterm, that's something I think investors can expect.

現在已經是中期了。顯然，我們今年的執行力隨著收入的增長，即使在合規性和其他業務領域進行了大量投資，效率也明顯低於 40%。但從中期來看，我認為投資者可以期待這一點。

The second piece that's important is that despite a significant amount of investment in risk and compliance resources, we will continue to be disciplined in our allocation of expense dollars. And we're focused on making sure that the expense dollars that we do spend either help us with our compliance and risk management programs overall or generate positive earnings potential for the firm. So they're the focal point.

第二重要的一點是，儘管在風險和合規資源方面進行了大量投資，但我們將繼續嚴格分配費用。我們的重點是確保我們所花費的費用要么有助於我們整體合規和風險管理計劃，要么為公司帶來積極的盈利潛力。所以他們是焦點。

In terms of some of the things where we continue to look at, we're looking at our facilities footprint. We expect to be able to continue to make some progress on that. Our third-party spend we're scrutinizing significantly with the help of our procurement and vendor management teams. And we're going to continue to look at resource levels to make sure they're appropriate for the environment and what we're trying to execute on. So I hope that provides some context, Ryan, on how we're thinking about the expense base in the aggregate. And that will translate into what we hope is a reasonably good set of expense and efficiency numbers into the future.

就我們繼續關注的一些事情而言，我們正在關注我們的設施足跡。我們希望能夠在這方面繼續取得一些進展。在採購和供應商管理團隊的幫助下，我們正在嚴格審查我們的第三方支出。我們將繼續關注資源水平，以確保它們適合環境以及我們要執行的任務。所以，瑞安，我希望這能為我們如何考慮整體費用基礎提供一些背景資訊。這將轉化為我們希望未來的一組相當不錯的費用和效率數據。

Got it. Maybe the follow-up on some of Sanjay and Bill's question. So when I think about the comments that you and John made regarding the trajectory of the '22 vintage, '23 likely hasn't begun to season, yet inflation weighing on consumers. Can you maybe just help us understand more broadly just thinking about how we should see the trajectory of delinquencies, meaning could we actually see the underperformance that we've experienced get worse as we sort of go through this next period of time given that you do have this really big vintage that's coming through. And any commentary on framing how much of this is seasoning? And how much of the delinquency performance is seasoning of the book versus actual underlying deterioration that you're seeing in the core customer base?

知道了。也許是桑杰和比爾的一些問題的後續。因此，當我想到您和約翰對「22」年份的發展軌跡發表的評論時，「23」年份可能還沒有開始，但通貨膨脹卻給消費者帶來了壓力。您能否幫助我們更廣泛地理解，只是思考我們應該如何看待拖欠的軌跡，這意味著我們是否真的可以看到，隨著我們經歷下一段時間，我們所經歷的表現不佳會變得更糟，因為您這樣做這個非常重要的年份即將到來。關於其中有多少調味料有什麼評論嗎？拖欠績效有多少是帳面上的老化與您在核心客戶群中看到的實際潛在惡化相比？

Yes, a lot to parse there, Ryan. Let me start by kind of walk you through what we're seeing in the portfolio. So we are seeing kind of differences in performance on customers that historically have been transactor versus revolver. So our revolver base, we're seeing a more significant decrease in sales activity, which makes sense, right, as they try to manage their household budget. We're seeing accounts that transacted in '21, '20 and '22 beginning to revolve more. So the revolve rate is back to where we were historically.

是的，有很多東西需要解析，瑞安。首先讓我向您介紹我們在產品組合中看到的內容。因此，我們發現歷史上交易者與左輪手槍客戶的績效有差異。因此，在我們的左輪手槍基礎上，我們看到銷售活動出現了更顯著的下降，這是有道理的，因為他們試圖管理家庭預算。我們看到在 21 年、20 年和 22 年進行交易的帳戶開始更多地循環。因此，旋轉速度回到了歷史水平。

And the '23 vintages, early indications are that it's performing very, very well. '22 is performing well, but not as well as '23. So my expectation is that delinquencies will slow in the first half of 2024. If that doesn't happen, that's an indication that the stress that the consumers are seeing is more significant than what we're observing today.

23 年年份的早期跡象表明它的表現非常非常好。 '22 表現不錯，但不如 '23。因此，我預計拖欠率將在 2024 年上半年放緩。如果這種情況沒有發生，則表明消費者所面臨的壓力比我們今天觀察到的壓力更為嚴重。

Our next question will come from John Hecht with Jefferies.

我們的下一個問題將由傑弗里斯的約翰·赫克特提出。

Actually, most of my questions and the fact that the last question was exactly overlapping. So maybe I'll just quickly ask, number one is maybe a quick update on kind of the competitive environment, what kind of zero balance kind of transfer activity you're engaging in and other kind of factors that you would tie to competition as kind of the credit environment maybe migrates a little bit? And then what are you guys on that front? What are you doing with respect to underwriting to account for some of these changes that you're seeing as well?

事實上，我的大部分問題和最後一個問題完全重疊。所以也許我會很快問，第一個可能是關於競爭環境的快速更新，您正在從事什麼樣的零餘額轉移活動，以及您與競爭相關的其他因素信貸環境可能會發生一些遷移？那你們在這方面是什麼呢？您在核保方面採取了哪些措施來應對您所看到的一些變化？

Great. Yes, I'll take that. So the environment continues to be competitive from card origination standpoint. We are seeing less competition in kind of the lower FICO band. So remember, we're a prime revolver, so we're focused on prime customers and the lower tier of origination envelope is, frankly, less competitive. So we're careful as we're looking at that to make sure that those folks seeking credit are worthy of credit and not going to turn into a subsequent charge-off. The upper prime remains very, very competitive. The rewards competition, you can see it by the television ads has certainly subsided significantly. So the market is always competitive. The competition varies among various FICO bands. And we're going to continue to compete and generate positive new accounts, but we're also mindful of the credit situation.

偉大的。是的，我會接受的。因此，從卡片的起源角度來看，環境仍然充滿競爭。我們發現較低 FICO 等級的競爭較少。所以請記住，我們是一家優質左輪手槍，因此我們專注於優質客戶，坦白說，較低等級的起始信封競爭力較差。因此，我們在考慮這一點時會非常小心，以確保那些尋求信貸的人值得信貸，並且不會變成隨後的沖銷。上層素數仍然非常非常有競爭力。獎勵競爭，從電視廣告就可以看到，肯定已經明顯平息了。所以市場永遠是競爭的。各個 FICO 頻段的競爭情況各不相同。我們將繼續競爭並創造積極的新帳戶，但我們也注意到信用狀況。

Our next question will come from Jeff Adelson with Morgan Stanley.

我們的下一個問題將來自摩根士丹利的傑夫阿德爾森。

John Greene, just wanted to follow up on the commentary of peak losses. I think you mentioned sometime in mid- to late 2024. I think last quarter, you talked about maybe this getting pushed into 2025. Is there a risk that maybe the peak kind of plateaus at or around those higher levels? Or do you think, as your 2020 vintage kind of peaks out and starts moderating in size, the losses and delinquencies should just naturally drift lower?

約翰·格林（John Greene）只是想跟進關於峰值損失的評論。我想你提到了 2024 年中後期的某個時間。我想上個季度，你談到可能會推遲到 2025 年。是否存在峰值在這些較高水平或附近趨於穩定的風險？或者您認為，隨著您的 2020 年年份達到頂峰並開始減少規模，損失和拖欠率應該會自然下降？

Yes. I think it will peak and then upon its peak, I think it will stabilize up there for a few quarters, maybe 2 to 3 quarters, and then we expect it to come down. That's all subject to kind of the macro environment, obviously. But in terms of what we're seeing today, that's the expectation.

是的。我認為它會達到頂峰，然後在達到頂峰後，我認為它會穩定幾個季度，也許是兩到三個季度，然後我們預計它會下降。顯然，這一切都受到宏觀環境的影響。但就我們今天所看到的情況而言，這就是預期。

And then just on the sales volumes, I know they were pretty flattish this quarter. Just wondering, under the hood, what's going on there. Is this representative of maybe more of a slower growth in new accounts, is maybe your same-store customer still growing at a faster pace year-over-year. And then just maybe thinking through the dynamic of faster network volumes, faster debit volumes. Anything going on there that's driving your debit and network volumes to reaccelerate versus your proprietary card volumes to slow?

然後就銷量而言，我知道本季的銷量相當平淡。只是想知道，在幕後，到底發生了什麼事。這是否代表新帳戶的成長速度可能更慢，或者您的同店客戶是否仍以較快的速度同比增長。然後也許可以考慮一下更快的網路量、更快的借記量的動態。是否發生了任何事情導致您的金融卡和網路交易量重新加速，而不是您的專有卡交易量放緩？

Yes. So let me start with sales. So what we're seeing is a downward trend in sales. So if you go back to the fourth quarter of '23, we're at about 10% year-over-year growth. First quarter was 8%, 2.5% in the second quarter, and about 1% here in the third quarter and through mid-October, about 1%.

是的。那麼就讓我從銷售開始吧。所以我們看到的是銷售額呈現下降趨勢。因此，如果你回顧 2023 年第四季度，我們的年成長率約為 10%。第一季為 8%，第二季為 2.5%，第三季約 1%，至 10 月中旬約 1%。

Interestingly enough, the dynamics are changing in terms of categories. So online spend is up around 4% to 5%, every day spend is up about 3%. That's largely inflation driven, we believe. And discretionary is flat to down with the exception of entertainment expense or entertainment-related categories, which is up north of 20%, which is hard for me to understand at this point. But we're trying to dig into the details.

有趣的是，類別方面的動態正在改變。因此，線上支出增加了約 4% 至 5%，每天的支出增加了約 3%。我們認為，這主要是通膨驅動的。除娛樂費用或娛樂相關類別外，可自由支配的支出持平或下降，增幅超過 20%，目前我很難理解這一點。但我們正在努力挖掘細節。

In terms of implications for next year, we're going to assume a relatively modest sales growth, maybe slow in the lower single digits. The transactor, revolver components of that, I mentioned that already. So more pullback on the revolver base.

就對明年的影響而言，我們將假設銷售成長相對溫和，可能會放緩至較低的個位數。交易者、左輪手槍組件，我已經提過。因此左輪手槍底座有更多的回檔。

The other piece of your question is debit -- debit transactions. We've had great execution from our PULSE business. So we've expanded a number of contractual arrangements and also debit choice routing has actually made a difference in the volumes. So our PULSE team is executing well and appears to be capturing some share.

你的問題的另一個問題是藉記——借記交易。我們的 PULSE 業務執行力非常出色。因此，我們擴大了一些合約安排，而藉記選擇路由實際上對數量產生了影響。因此，我們的 PULSE 團隊執行得很好，並且似乎正在佔據一些份額。

Our next question will come from Rick Shane with JPMorgan.

我們的下一個問題將來自摩根大通的 Rick Shane。

Look, you've cited a couple of things that are driving the increase in delinquencies. You've talked about seasoning of vintage. You've talked about some exposure to lower FICO scores within the cohorts. At the same time, you guys are starting to apply a lot more machine learning to your portfolio and your process.

看，您列舉了一些導致拖欠率增加的因素。您談到了復古調味料。您談到了隊列中 FICO 分數較低的情況。同時，你們開始將更多的機器學習應用到你們的投資組合和流程中。

I'm curious if you are identifying other factors that are contributing to the increase in delinquencies, whether it's age demographic, geography, what might be other factors that are contributing to this in the context of strong labor markets. And then the follow-up to that is, with that information, can you then apply different servicing strategies to enhance that performance?

我很好奇您是否正在確定導致拖欠率增加的其他因素，無論是年齡人口、地理位置，還是在強勁的勞動力市場背景下可能導致這種情況的其他因素。然後，根據這些訊息，您可以應用不同的服務策略來提高效能嗎？

Yes, you're into the secret sauce of underwriting, Rick. But I'll give you a little bit of overview. So we spent a lot of time trying to revive to update our models. And we looked at no exaggeration, probably 300 different risk identifiers or risk splitters. And what we did find is savings rate is important, household net worth is important, the amount of credit on us. So on the credit report and discovered balance sheet as well as the amount of credit off are -- continue to be really, really important.

是的，你對承保的秘密很感興趣，里克。但我會給你一些概述。所以我們花了很多時間試圖復興更新我們的模型。毫不誇張地說，我們研究了大約 300 種不同的風險識別器或風險分配器。我們確實發現儲蓄率很重要，家庭淨值很重要，我們的信用額度也很重要。因此，信用報告和發現的資產負債表以及信貸額度仍然非常非常重要。

And then also, there's some work being done on cash flow underwriting because of some of the off bureau credit that we experienced or the whole market experienced in '21 and '22. So we're going to continue to look to refine our models and see what we can do to identify accounts that are going to be highly profitable and originate those.

此外，由於我們在 21 年和 22 年經歷過一些局外信貸或整個市場經歷過，因此在現金流承保方面正在進行一些工作。因此，我們將繼續改進我們的模型，看看我們能做些什麼來識別將獲得高利潤的帳戶並建立這些帳戶。

In terms of the second part of your question around servicing strategies, there's been a lot of work done on best time to contact, and we've got some machine learning models that are focused on that as well as best channel to contact. So is it -- is it via phone, e-mail, text or other means. All that work is ongoing. And frankly, it will never stop. It will be a continued refinement of the model so that we can collect effectively and originate profitably.

關於您關於服務策略的問題的第二部分，我們在最佳聯絡時間方面做了很多工作，我們有一些專注於此的機器學習模型以及最佳聯繫管道。也是如此——是透過電話、電子郵件、簡訊或其他方式。所有這些工作正在進行中。坦白說，它永遠不會停止。這將是對模型的持續改進，以便我們能夠有效地收集並創造利潤。

Our next question will come from Mihir Bhatia with Bank of America Merrill Lynch.

我們的下一個問題將來自美銀美林的 Mihir Bhatia。

To start, I wanted to actually ask about personal loans. You're continuing to see some very healthy growth there. Can you talk a little bit more about some of the drivers? I think I know you mentioned a little bit of payment rate flowback, but what about from a competition standpoint? What's driving that? And then just related to that -- to the comments you've been making about on the credit card side, I wanted to understand if you're seeing any meaningful deterioration in credit there. Anything on the vintage -- do the vintage comments apply here, anything like we should be thinking about there? Are you tightening underwriting currently in that personal loan space too?

首先，我想實際詢問一下個人貸款。你會繼續看到那裡的一些非常健康的成長。您能多談談一些驅動程式嗎？我想我知道你提到了一點支付率回流，但是從競爭的角度來看呢？是什麼推動了這一點？然後與此相關的是，對於您在信用卡方面發表的評論，我想了解您是否看到了信用方面的任何有意義的惡化。關於年份的任何事情——年份評論是否適用於此，我們應該在那裡考慮什麼？您目前是否也正在收緊個人貸款領域的承保？

So our average ticket on a personal loan is significantly larger than many of our competitors. And the predominant share of the volume now is for debt consolidation efforts and important to recognize that as part of our underwriting process when there's a debt consolidation, customer somewhere between 70% to 80% of the disbursement goes to the creditors to ensure that the overall cost of debt for that customer is lowered and therefore, their ability to pay is high. So that's an important distinction.

因此，我們的個人貸款平均金額明顯高於許多競爭對手。現在的主要份額是用於債務合併工作，重要的是要認識到，作為我們承銷流程的一部分，當發生債務合併時，客戶將 70% 到 80% 的支出支付給債權人，以確保整體該客戶的債務成本降低，因此他們的支付能力較高。所以這是一個重要的區別。

In terms of growth, what we've seen is high level of demand, but also a reduction in the payment rate. And that reduction in the payment rate has also been responsible for a very significant chunk of the growth that we've seen in the quarter.

在成長方面，我們看到的是高水準的需求，但支付率也有所下降。支付率的下降也是我們在本季看到的成長的很大一部分原因。

In terms of kind of the performance there, it is what I'll say, returning to more historical performance metrics, but again, highly profitable and you can see from the report or from the details in terms of delinquency rates they remain very, very low relative to historical standards.

就那裡的績效而言，這就是我要說的，回到更多的歷史績效指標，但同樣，利潤很高，你可以從報告或拖欠率方面的細節中看到，它們仍然非常非常相對於歷史標準較低。

That's helpful. Maybe if I could just turn back and look for a second to the compliance issue question and the timing, et cetera. It sounds like from what you're saying related to the merchant mispricing issue, the outside law firm has completed the investigation. You've discussed results with regulators already. So I think a lot of what a lot of people are just trying to understand is what needs to happen for the buybacks to resume. I understand it's difficult to put a specific date out there. But is the overall message, it's going to take several quarters for those to resume? Maybe just help us understand what needs to happen here for you to get comfortable? And again, like I understand, you do want to put a specific time frame, but is the right message that it's going to be several quarters more ?

這很有幫助。也許我可以回頭再考慮一下合規問題和時間安排等等。從你所說的商家定價錯誤問題來看，外部律師事務所已經完成了調查。您已經與監管機構討論了結果。所以我認為很多人只是想了解的是恢復回購需要發生什麼。我知道很難確定具體日期。但總體而言，這些活動需要幾個季度才能恢復嗎？也許只是幫助我們了解這裡需要發生什麼才能讓您感到舒適？再說一遍，據我所知，您確實想設定一個具體的時間範圍，但需要再花幾個季度的時間是正確的資訊嗎？

Yes. So no specific timing on the resumption. So what we want to do is have further dialogue with our merchants to ensure we're progressing the remediation and the negotiations. We also continue to have discussions with our regulatory agencies. And we're looking to progress those and we're also reviewing our capital positions, right? There's a number of pulls on capital this year. Certainly, the phenomenal loan growth that we've seen. We've got Basel end game that's on the horizon. We have the CECL phase in also impacting capital levels. So we're going to take a look at the profitability for 2024, take a look at the progress we're making on the card tiering issue and overall risk and governance items and make a recommendation to the Board.

是的。所以沒有具體的恢復時間。因此，我們想要做的是與我們的商家進行進一步對話，以確保我們正在推動補救和談判。我們也繼續與監管機構進行討論。我們正在尋求進展，我們也在審查我們的資本狀況，對嗎？今年對資本的拉動很多。當然，我們已經看到了驚人的貸款成長。巴塞爾的最終比賽即將到來。 CECL 階段也會影響資本水準。因此，我們將研究 2024 年的獲利能力，研究我們在卡分級問題以及整體風險和治理專案方面取得的進展，並向董事會提出建議。

So my -- I'll say my key summary here is that our capital priorities haven't changed. We're focused on generating positive earnings to be able to invest in the business and return excess capital to shareholders. Our margin rates remain robust. Our return on equity this quarter and for the year remains really, really strong. So it's a matter of just making sure we've got the right balance between investing and return of capital.

所以，我要說的是，我的主要總結是，我們的資本優先事項沒有改變。我們專注於產生正收益，以便能夠投資業務並將多餘資本返還給股東。我們的保證金率仍然強勁。我們本季和今年的股本回報率仍然非常非常強勁。因此，問題在於確保我們在投資和資本回報之間取得適當的平衡。

Our next question will come from Bob Napoli with William Blair.

我們的下一個問題將由鮑勃·納波利和威廉·布萊爾提出。

Follow-up on return on equity. One of the questions we get I mean, obviously, Discover has reported very strong ROE for a very long time with the changes in regulations and potential capital changes. What are your thoughts on Discover being able to generate the types of return on equity that we've seen over the last 15 years or so.

股本回報率的後續行動。我的意思是，我們得到的問題之一是，很明顯，隨著法規的變化和潛在的資本變化，Discover 在很長一段時間內報告了非常強勁的股本回報率。您對 Discover 能夠產生我們在過去 15 年左右看到的股本回報率有何看法。

Yes. Certainly, relative to kind of history and then going forward, a couple of important points. So we have operated with capital well above our operating target for the better part of, I don't know, at least as long as I've been here 4 years now, and we are approaching the 10.5% target. .

是的。當然，相對於歷史和未來，有幾個重要的觀點。因此，我不知道，至少在我來這裡四年以來，我們的營運資本遠高於我們的營運目標，而且我們正在接近 10.5% 的目標。 。

I will say that our overall capital position does remain very, very strong, right? So regulatory minimums 4.5%, the SCB 2.5%, so the required capital 7%, and we're at 11.6% here on CET1 for the quarter. So my expectation is we're going to manage the business to continue to generate high returns and deliver a high level of return on equity overall and be able to invest in the business and return excess capital to shareholders. So as we go out 3 to 5 years, it's a bit challenging to predict a regulatory regime and the expectations for institutions such as ours in terms of overall capital levels. But we're well positioned to generate positive capital and return capital.

我想說的是，我們的整體資本狀況確實仍然非常非常強勁，對吧？因此，監管最低要求為 4.5%，SCB 為 2.5%，因此所需資本為 7%，本季 CET1 的資本要求為 11.6%。因此，我的期望是，我們將管理該業務，以繼續產生高回報並實現高水準的整體股本回報率，並能夠投資該業務並將多餘資本返還給股東。因此，當我們展望未來 3 到 5 年時，預測監管制度以及對我們這樣的機構在整體資本水準方面的預期有點具有挑戰性。但我們有能力產生正資本和回報資本。

I appreciate that. And then just on the overall, the long-term growth of your business, your core customer, the TAM of your business and the ability for Discover to grow I mean I think historically, high single-digit kind of loan growth and spending growth. What are your thoughts -- is the ability to grow those types of rates, what we should continue to expect? And how does the cash back debit product maybe affect that growth?

我很感激。然後就整體而言，您業務的長期成長、您的核心客戶、您業務的TAM 以及Discover 的成長能力，我的意思是，我認為從歷史上看，貸款成長和支出成長都是高個位數。您的想法是什麼——我們應該繼續期待提高這些類型的利率的能力嗎？現金返還借記產品可能如何影響這種成長？

Yes. I mean, certainly, our expectation is to continue to grow at least in line with kind of the historical norms. The cashback debit product, we actually think has a lot of power behind it. So the features of the product itself are super, right? So 1% cash back on debit transactions, we have a positive kind of business impact from our ability to capture interchange on those transactions. So that's positive. .

是的。我的意思是，當然，我們的期望是至少按照歷史規範繼續成長。我們實際上認為現金回饋借記產品背後有很大的力量。那麼產品本身的功能就超棒吧？因此，借記交易可獲得 1% 的現金返還，我們捕獲這些交易交換的能力對我們的業務產生了積極的影響。所以這是積極的。 。

And then it's a whole new customer outlet for us, so executed well. It will bring in a new cohort of customers that we can then underwrite and cross-sell to and further help the customer experience in terms of meeting additional banking needs and turn that checking product into a credit card relationship or perhaps a personal loan down the road. So we're super excited about it.

這對我們來說是一個全新的客戶管道，執行得很好。它將帶來一批新的客戶，然後我們可以向他們承保和交叉銷售，並進一步幫助客戶體驗滿足額外的銀行業務需求，並將支票產品轉變為信用卡關係或可能是個人貸款。 。所以我們對此感到非常興奮。

Our next question will come from Kevin Barker with Piper Sandler.

我們的下一個問題將由凱文·巴克和派珀·桑德勒提出。

I just wanted to follow up on some of the spending on tech, in particular, in the info processing line. Could you provide a little more detail on some of the projects that you have in place and whether you expect those to be ongoing? Or are there additional projects that you anticipate, particularly around tech investment and other investments that you're making within the franchise?

我只是想跟進一些技術支出，特別是在資訊處理方面的支出。您能否提供更多有關您已實施的一些項目的詳細資訊以及您是否期望這些項目繼續進行？或者您預計還有其他項目，特別是圍繞技術投資和您在特許經營範圍內進行的其他投資嗎？

Yes. So we're a digital institution. So the first piece is we're going to continue to invest in tech and advanced analytics to kind of help their customer experience and then also help us to generate positive returns. Some of the specific projects that we're working on, so we've got a number of advanced analytics programs around collections and around originations in order to be able to get -- service customers well and then target the right sort of customers. We also did a bunch of work last year and into this year in terms of improving the closure rate of leads from a lead into a funded customer, whether it was a savings or credit customer.

是的。所以我們是一家數位機構。因此，第一件事是我們將繼續投資於技術和高級分析，以幫助他們的客戶體驗，然後幫助我們產生積極的回報。我們正在進行一些具體項目，因此我們圍繞產品系列和起源製定了許多高級分析程序，以便能夠為客戶提供良好的服務，然後瞄準正確的客戶類型。去年和今年我們也做了很多工作，提高了從潛在客戶到受資助客戶的潛在客戶的關閉率，無論是儲蓄客戶還是信貸客戶。

This year, we're investing heavily in our risk and compliance systems. So certainly, there's tech spend going on there. We also have tech spend related to our on-prime servers and moving to a hybrid and cloud environment. That's certainly a significant spend.

今年，我們對風險和合規系統進行了大量投資。當然，那裡正在進行技術支出。我們還有與我們的主伺服器以及遷移到混合和雲端環境相關的技術支出。這無疑是一筆龐大的支出。

And then also, given the risk and compliance issues that we've seen historically, we're spending a lot of time taking a look at how our core systems work, the data that goes in and the data that comes out and what we do with the data and looking to kind of reduce the amount of manual touches to that data. So all of that is part of the reason or the reasons why we're seeing kind of information processing and tech spend overall increase this year?

此外，考慮到我們歷史上遇到的風險和合規問題，我們花費了大量時間來研究我們的核心系統如何運作、輸入的資料和輸出的資料以及我們所做的事情處理資料並希望減少對該數據的手動操作量。那麼，所有這些都是我們今年看到資訊處理和技術支出整體增加的部分原因？

Two other areas I would call out around our fraud detection, we continue to invest heavily in our fraud detection. That's ongoing battle every quarter, but we've made significant investments in fraud and continue to push on that area. The second thing around our digital capabilities as a digital bank. We've got a very easy-to-use system, easy application process, very easy for customers to open up our cashback debit as we spent a lot of time and effort in customer flows and customer engagement and how we onboard customers in a more seamless manner.

我要提到的關於詐欺偵測的另外兩個領域是，我們繼續在詐欺偵測方面投入大量資金。每個季度，這場戰鬥都會持續進行，但我們在詐欺方面投入了大量資金，並將繼續推動這一領域的發展。第二件事圍繞著我們作為數位銀行的數位能力。我們有一個非常易於使用的系統，簡單的申請流程，客戶很容易打開我們的現金回饋借記卡，因為我們在客戶流程和客戶參與以及我們如何以更多的方式吸引客戶方面花費了大量的時間和精力。無縫方式。

And just a follow-up on your investment on enhancing recovery rates. Have you seen any particular shift in the recovery rates you have today? Or where they're trending relative to past cycles? .

這只是您在提高回收率方面的投資的後續行動。您今天的康復率是否有任何特別的變化？或者相對於過去的周期它們的趨勢是什麼？ 。

No specific changes to recovery rates. We are seeing more customers seek credit assistance and negotiate settlements. There seems to be a cottage industry developing around that. And that's back in this -- I think it was the month of July, we saw a chunk of charge-offs come through as a result of settlements from these institutions. But overall recovery rates remain strong. The pool of charge-offs to be able to capture recoveries from obviously is increasing as the charge-offs increase. So that's actually part of our -- how we take a look at overall credit and reserving.

回收率沒有具體變化。我們看到越來越多的客戶尋求信貸援助並協商解決方案。似乎有一個圍繞此發展的家庭手工業。這又回到了這一點——我想那是 7 月份，我們看到由於這些機構的和解而產生了大量沖銷。但整體康復率仍然強勁。隨著沖銷的增加，能夠從中收回的沖銷池顯然也增加。這實際上是我們如何看待整體信貸和準備金的一部分。

Our next question will come from Erika Najarian with UBS.

我們的下一個問題將由瑞銀集團的埃里卡·納賈里安（Erika Najarian）提出。

This is Nick Holowko on for Erika. Most of them have been answered, but just wanted to follow up with one question on loan growth. So obviously, card growth remains really robust and you raised your guidance to mid-teens for the year. And I'm just wondering, given the comments on the stress in the lower and mid FICO scores and then the delinquency trends and then your comments that the revolve rate has really normalized. I'm wondering if you can help us with which parts of the FICO band in your portfolio are driving the loan growth? And whether you're seeing any outsized contribution from those on the lower end?

我是艾莉卡的尼克·霍洛科。大多數問題都已得到解答，但只想跟進一個有關貸款增長的問題。顯然，卡片的成長仍然非常強勁，您將今年的指導提高到了十幾歲左右。我只是想知道，考慮到對中低 FICO 分數的壓力的評論，然後是拖欠趨勢，然後是您對循環率真正正常化的評論。我想知道您是否可以幫助我們了解您的投資組合中 FICO 等級的哪些部分正在推動貸款成長？您是否看到低端人群做出了巨大的貢獻？

Yes. So, what we're seeing is kind of loan build driven by two factors. So it's somewhere between 30% and 40% of the build is -- the loan growth is from new accounts. And then the remainder is coming from payment rate normalization. So we're seeing kind of portfolio of customers increasing their balances. So -- and that normalization of payment rate is pretty consistent on the upper bands to the, call it, to the midpoint to the top 2/3 of the portfolio.

是的。因此，我們看到的是由兩個因素驅動的貸款成長。因此，貸款成長的 30% 到 40% 之間來自新帳戶。其餘部分則來自支付率正常化。因此，我們看到一些客戶的餘額正在增加。因此，支付率的正常化在上限到投資組合前 2/3 的中點上非常一致。

The bottom third, the payment rate normalized last year. And we're seeing that at pretty close to historical levels, maybe a mild deterioration from that.

倒數三分之一是去年支付率正常化。我們看到，情況非常接近歷史水平，也許會略有惡化。

Our next question will come from Dominick Gabriele with Oppenheimer.

我們的下一個問題將來自多明尼克·加布里埃爾和奧本海默。

Something sort of related to that. So if we just think about the year-over-year spending growth roughly 1%. I guess what was the year-over-year growth in the number of cards or new accounts? And also, what was the -- and just added to that, what is the benefit that Discover saw to spending in the quarter related to gas on the growth? And then I just have a follow-up.

與此相關的一些東西。因此，如果我們只考慮同比支出成長約 1%。我猜卡片或新帳戶數量的年增率是多少？此外，Discover 認為本季與天然氣相關的支出對成長有何好處？然後我有一個後續行動。

Yes. So we grew and I -- we made public comments on this. In 2022, we grew accounts about 20%. Overall this year, as we've taken a look at kind of the credit performance, we're on pace to kind of originate about the same number of overall accounts. So the growth in terms of new accounts will be relatively flat, but the new account generation will be pretty consistent year-over-year. That could change if we pare back credit here in the fourth quarter and into next year.

是的。所以我們成長了，我——我們對此發表了公開評論。 2022 年，我們的客戶成長了約 20%。總體而言，今年，當我們研究了信貸表現時，我們正在努力創建大約相同數量的總帳戶。因此，新帳戶的成長將相對平穩，但新帳戶的產生量將與去年同期相當一致。如果我們在第四季和明年削減信貸，這種情況可能會改變。

In terms of gas, that was interesting. So gas was up 1% in the quarter. It was also a 5% category. So when you adjust for kind of the deflationary impact, the usage there was at least through our card was up over 10%.

就天然氣而言，這很有趣。因此，天然氣在本季上漲了 1%。這也是一個 5% 的類別。因此，當您根據通貨緊縮影響進行調整時，透過我們的卡片進行的使用量至少增加了 10% 以上。

And then obviously, you have a lot of student loans, you're one of the major players. We have the moratorium ending. I know that, that doesn't affect you directly, perhaps in your own loans because they're private loans, but what are you seeing in the data that you're watching of how this might be affecting either payment rates or demand for private loans or refinancings, anything you can provide as far as how this affects the consumer that you're seeing in your data only in 19 days or whatever, but anything you can provide would be really helpful.

顯然，你有很多學生貸款，你是主要參與者之一。我們有暫停的結束。我知道，這不會直接影響您，也許在您自己的貸款中，因為它們是私人貸款，但您在您正在觀察的數據中看到了什麼，這可能會如何影響付款率或私人貸款需求貸款或再融資，您可以提供的任何內容，只要您在19 天內的數據中看到的對消費者的影響，或其他什麼，但您可以提供的任何內容都會非常有幫助。

So we're not seeing anything in our data yet whatsoever. We did actually a couple of quarters ago, quantify what we thought the impact could be to our portfolio in terms of charge-offs and as it turns out, based on the executive order direction in terms of kind of the repayment structure that the Biden administration is putting in place and making kind of payment levels associated or tied to income levels. We expect the impact on our portfolio to be de minimis. .

所以我們還沒有在數據中看到任何內容。事實上，我們在幾個季度前就量化了我們認為沖銷方面可能對我們的投資組合產生的影響，事實證明，根據拜登政府就還款結構的行政命令方向正在實施並使付款水平與收入水平相關聯或掛鉤。我們預計對我們投資組合的影響將是微不足道的。 。

Now we'll see how it all plays out legislatively. But we're not expecting a significant impact certainly this year, and we'll evaluate to see what happens and take a look at our data to make a determination if it is going to have an adverse impact on our charge-offs, but today, nothing.

現在我們將看看這一切如何在立法上發揮作用。但我們預計今年不會產生重大影響，我們將進行評估，看看會發生什麼，並查看我們的數據，以確定它是否會對我們的沖銷產生不利影響，但今天， 沒有什麼。

This concludes the Q&A portion of the call. And I'd now like to turn the floor back over to Eric Wasserstrom for any additional or closing remarks.

電話問答部分到此結束。現在我想請 Eric Wasserstrom 發表任何補充或結束語。

Well, thank you very much for joining us this morning. If you have any additional questions, please reach out to the IR team, and we look forward to hearing from you. Thanks very much. Take care.

非常感謝您今天早上加入我們。如果您還有任何其他問題，請聯絡 IR 團隊，我們期待您的回覆。非常感謝。小心。

Thank you, ladies and gentlemen. This concludes today's program, and we appreciate your participation. You may disconnect at any time.

謝謝你們，女士們、先生們。今天的節目到此結束，感謝您的參與。您可以隨時斷開連線。