發現金融 (DFS) 2023 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good morning. My name is Todd, and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the Fourth Quarter 2023 Discover Financial Services Earnings Conference Call.

早安.我叫托德，今天我將擔任你們的會議操作員。在此，我歡迎大家參加 2023 年第四季 Discover Financial Services 收益電話會議。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

I will now turn the call over to Mr. Eric Wasserstrom, Senior Vice President of Corporate Strategy and Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

我現在將把電話轉給企業策略和投資者關係資深副總裁 Eric Wasserstrom 先生。請繼續。

Thank you, and welcome to this morning's call. I'll begin on Slide 2 of our earnings presentation, which you can find in the financial section of our Investor Relations website, investorrelations.discover.com. Our discussion today contains certain forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially. Please refer to our notices regarding forward-looking statements that appear in our fourth quarter 2023 earnings press release and presentation.

謝謝您，歡迎參加今天早上的電話會議。我將從我們的收益簡報的幻燈片 2 開始，您可以在我們的投資者關係網站 Investorrelations.discover.com 的財務部分找到該簡報。我們今天的討論包含某些前瞻性陳述，這些陳述存在風險和不確定性，可能導致實際結果出現重大差異。請參閱我們關於 2023 年第四季收益新聞稿和簡報中出現的前瞻性陳述的通知。

Our call today will include remarks from our Interim CEO, John Owen; and John Greene, our Chief Financial Officer.

我們今天的電話會議將包括我們的臨時執行長約翰歐文 (John Owen) 的演講；和我們的財務長約翰·格林。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

Now it's my pleasure to turn the call over to John.

現在我很高興將電話轉給約翰。

Thank you, Eric, and thanks to our listeners for joining today's call. 2023 was a year of significant change for Discover, and we believe the actions we've taken position the company to continue driving strong long-term performance.

謝謝你，艾瑞克，也感謝我們的聽眾參加今天的電話會議。 2023 年對 Discover 來說是發生重大變化的一年，我們相信我們所採取的行動將使公司能夠繼續推動強勁的長期業績。

When I stepped into the interim CEO role, I had three priorities. My top priority was to advance our culture of compliance, and we have made meaningful strides in our corporate governance and risk management capabilities. That said, this is a journey that will take time and continued investments over the coming years to further enhance our compliance and risk management capabilities.

當我擔任臨時執行長時，我有三個優先事項。我的首要任務是推動我們的合規文化，我們在公司治理和風險管理能力方面取得了有意義的進展。也就是說，這是一個需要時間和未來幾年持續投資的旅程，以進一步增強我們的合規和風險管理能力。

My second priority is to continue delivering a great customer experience at every touch point, which we do by providing our customers with award-winning service and products. I'd like to thank our 20,000 employees for delivering a great customer experience to help our customers achieve a brighter financial future. In 2023, we were recognized for the first time as one of Fortune 100 best companies to work for. This award adds for accolade for working parents, women, people with disabilities and members of the LGBTQ+ community, and we're proud to be an inclusive workplace.

我的第二要務是繼續在每個接觸點提供出色的客戶體驗，為此我們為客戶提供屢獲殊榮的服務和產品。我要感謝我們的 20,000 名員工提供了出色的客戶體驗，幫助我們的客戶實現更光明的財務未來。 2023 年，我們首次被評為《財星》100 強最適合工作的公司之一。該獎項是對在職父母、女性、殘疾人和 LGBTQ+ 社區成員的進一步表彰，我們為成為一個包容性的工作場所而感到自豪。

My third priority is to sustain our strong financial performance. We reported net income of $2.9 billion for full year 2023 and earnings per share of $11.26. This makes 2023 the third best year for EPS performance in our history. In delivering these results, we achieved several important milestones. We exceeded $100 billion in Card receivables, grew deposits by 21% year-over-year, successfully launched our cash-back debit account on a national scale, and we announced our intent to exit the private student lending business.

我的第三個首要任務是維持我們強勁的財務表現。我們公佈的 2023 年全年淨利為 29 億美元，每股收益為 11.26 美元。這使得 2023 年成為我們史上每股盈餘表現第三好的一年。在實現這些成果的過程中，我們實現了幾個重要的里程碑。我們的卡片應收帳款超過 1000 億美元，存款年增 21%，在全國範圍內成功推出現金回饋借記帳戶，並宣布打算退出私人學生貸款業務。

On December 11, we announced a new leadership and we're excited to have Michael Rhodes joining us for our incoming Chief Executive Officer. Michael is an experienced leader of the deep background in the financial services industry. He has managed all aspects of our Consumer Banking business with deep experience in the credit card space, payments, online and mobile banking and served as Group Head of Innovation and Technology. His appointment marks the conclusion of a rigorous search process, and we look forward to Michael's arrival. When Michael arrives, I will return to my prior role on Discover's Board of Directors.

12 月 11 日，我們宣布了新的領導層，我們很高興邁克爾·羅德 (Michael Rhodes) 加入我們，擔任即將上任的執行長。 Michael 是一位在金融服務業有著深厚背景、經驗豐富的領導者。他負責管理我們消費者銀行業務的各個方面，在信用卡領域、支付、線上和行動銀行方面擁有豐富的經驗，並擔任創新與技術集團主管。他的任命標誌著嚴格的搜尋過程的結束，我們期待邁克爾的到來。當麥可到來時，我將回到之前在 Discover 董事會中的角色。

In conclusion, I'm proud of the progress we made in 2023. Our integrated digital banking model, resilient financial performance and maturing risk management and compliance capabilities position Discover well for 2024 and beyond.

總而言之，我對我們在 2023 年的進展感到自豪。我們的整合數位銀行模式、富有彈性的財務表現以及成熟的風險管理和合規能力使 Discover 在 2024 年及以後的發展前景良好。

With that, I'll now turn the call over to John Greene, who will review our fourth quarter 2023 financial results in more detail and provide some perspective on 2024.

現在，我將把電話轉給 John Greene，他將更詳細地回顧我們 2023 年第四季的財務業績，並提供對 2024 年的一些看法。

Thank you, John, and good morning, everyone. I'll start with our summary financial results on Slide 4. In the quarter, we reported net income of $388 million, down from just over $1 billion in the prior year quarter. There are three broad trends to call out.

謝謝約翰，大家早安。我將從投影片 4 上的財務業績摘要開始。本季度，我們公佈的淨利潤為 3.88 億美元，低於去年同期的 10 億多美元。有三大趨勢值得關注。

First, we grew revenue 13%, reflecting 15% loan growth, partially offset by modest NIM compression. Second, provision expense grew by $1 billion. Charge-offs increased, but landed at the low end of our expected range. Strong loan growth and higher delinquency drove the increase to our reserve balance. Finally, expenses increased 19% year-over-year, reflecting investments in compliance and risk management, a reserve for customer remediation and higher marketing expense to support our national cashback debit campaign. We'll get into the details of these topics on the following pages.

首先，我們的收入成長了 13%，反映了 15% 的貸款成長，部分被淨利差的適度壓縮所抵消。其次，準備金支出增加了10億美元。沖銷有所增加，但仍處於我們預期範圍的低端。強勁的貸款成長和較高的拖欠率推動了我們的準備金餘額的增加。最後，費用年增 19%，反映出在合規和風險管理、客戶補救準備金以及支持我們的全國現金返還借記活動的更高行銷費用方面的投資。我們將在接下來的幾頁中詳細介紹這些主題。

Turning to Slide 5. Our net interest margin ended the quarter at 10.98%, down 29 basis points from the prior year and up 3 basis points sequentially. The decline from the prior year quarter was driven by higher funding costs and higher interest charge-offs, which were partially offset by higher prime rates and increases in revolving balances. For the full year, net interest margin was 11.07%, up 3 basis points from the prior year. This margin performance reflects the improvement in our funding mix over the past several years and a reduced level of balance transfer and promotional balances as we tightened underwriting.

轉向投影片 5。本季末，我們的淨利差為 10.98%，比上年同期下降 29 個基點，較上季上升 3 個基點。較去年同期下降的原因是融資成本上升和利息沖銷增加，但優惠利率上升和循環餘額增加部分抵消了這一影響。全年淨利差11.07%，較上年上升3個基點。這項利潤率表現反映了過去幾年我們融資組合的改善，以及隨著我們收緊承銷而減少的餘額轉移和促銷餘額水準。

Receivable growth remained robust. Card increased 13% year-over-year due to contributions from the prior year new account growth and a lower payment rate. The payment rate declined about 110 basis points from the sequential quarter and is now 100 basis points above 2019 levels. Overall, new account growth declined 9% as a result of credit actions. Sales were up 3% compared to the prior year quarter. Personal loans were up 23%, driven by continued strength in originations and lower payment rate versus the prior year. Student loans were flat year-over-year. As we prepare for a potential sale of this portfolio, we will cease accepting applications for new loans on February 1.

應收帳款成長依然強勁。由於上一年新帳戶成長和較低的支付率的貢獻，銀行卡業務年增 13%。支付率較上一季下降約 110 個基點，目前比 2019 年水準高出 100 個基點。總體而言，由於信貸行動，新帳戶成長下降了 9%。與去年同期相比，銷售額成長了 3%。由於發放量持續強勁以及支付率較上年下降，個人貸款增加了 23%。學生貸款較去年同期持平。當我們準備出售該投資組合時，我們將於 2 月 1 日停止接受新貸款申請。

Our Deposit business delivered outstanding performance in a challenging year. Average deposits were up 21% year-over-year and 4% sequentially. Our direct-to-consumer balances grew $3 billion in the period and $14 billion in the year.

我們的存款業務在充滿挑戰的一年中表現出色。平均存款年增 21%，季增 4%。我們的直接面向消費者餘額在此期間增加了 30 億美元，全年成長了 140 億美元。

Looking at other revenue on Slide 6. Noninterest income increased $74 million or 11%. This was primarily driven by an increase in loan fee income, higher transaction processing revenue from our PULSE business and higher net discount and interchange revenue. Our rewards rate was 137 basis points in the period and 140 basis points for the full year 2023, a decrease of 1 basis point on a full year basis. The decline reflects lower cashback match from slowing new account growth and our active management of our 5% categories.

查看投影片 6 上的其他收入。非利息收入增加了 7,400 萬美元，即 11%。這主要是由於貸款費用收入的增加、PULSE 業務交易處理收入的增加以及淨折扣和交換收入的增加。期內我們的獎勵率為137個基點，2023年全年為140個基點，全年下降1個基點。這一下降反映出新帳戶成長放緩以及我們對 5% 類別的積極管理導致現金返還匹配減少。

Moving to expenses on Slide 7. Total operating expenses were up $280 million or 19% year-over-year and up 22% from the prior quarter. Looking at our major expense categories, compensation cost increased $73 million or 13% from higher headcount. Marketing expenses increased $59 million or 19%. Professional fees were up driven by continued investment in compliance and risk management capabilities, while other expense reflects a reserve for customer remediation.

轉到幻燈片 7 上的費用。總營運費用年增 2.8 億美元，即 19%，環比增長 22%。從我們的主要支出類別來看，由於員工人數增加，薪酬成本增加了 7,300 萬美元，即 13%。行銷費用增加 5,900 萬美元，即 19%。由於對合規和風險管理能力的持續投資，專業費用有所上漲，而其他費用則反映了客戶補救的準備金。

Moving to credit performance on Slide 8. Total net charge-offs were 4.11%, 198 basis points higher than the prior year and up 59 basis points from the prior quarter. In card, as anticipated, delinquency formation is slowing as more recent vintages season. We added a slide detailing some of the drivers of our credit performance in the appendix to the earnings presentation.

轉到投影片 8 的信貸表現。總淨沖銷率為 4.11%，比前一年高 198 個基點，比上一季高 59 個基點。事實上，正如預期的那樣，隨著最近年份的到來，拖欠率的形成正在放緩。我們在收益報告的附錄中加入了一張投影片，詳細介紹了我們信用表現的一些驅動因素。

Turning to the allowance for credit losses on Slide 9. This quarter, we increased our reserves by $618 million, and our reserve rate increased by 17 basis points to just over 7.2%. The increase in reserves was driven by receivable growth and higher near-term loss content from higher delinquencies. Under CECL, reserve levels increase as you approach peak losses. We expect our losses to rise through the midyear and then plateau through the back half with some seasonal variation. In terms of our macroeconomic outlook, our view of unemployment was relatively unchanged, while household net worth projections increased slightly. These changes provided a small benefit to reserves.

轉向幻燈片 9 中的信貸損失準備金。本季度，我們增加了 6.18 億美元的準備金，準備金率增加了 17 個基點，略高於 7.2%。準備金的增加是由於應收帳款成長和拖欠率增加導致的近期損失內容增加所致。根據 CECL，準備金水準會隨著損失接近高峰而增加。我們預計我們的損失將在年中上升，然後在下半年趨於平穩，並出現一些季節性變化。就宏觀經濟前景而言，我們對失業的看法相對不變，而家庭淨值預測略有上升。這些變化為儲備金帶來了一點好處。

Looking at Slide 10. Our common equity Tier 1 for the period was 11.3%. The sequential decline of 30 basis points was driven largely by asset growth. We declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.70 per share of common stock.

看投影片 10。我們這段期間的普通股一級資本為 11.3%。環比下降 30 個基點主要是由資產成長所推動的。我們宣布季度現金股利為每股普通股 0.70 美元。

Including on Slide 11 with our perspectives on 2024. These exclude the impact of a potential student loan portfolio sale. We expect end-of-period loan growth to be relatively flat while average loan growth will be up modestly year-over-year. We expect full year net interest margin to be 10.5% to 10.8%. We're currently anticipating four rate cuts of 25 basis points in 2024. This is two more rate cuts than in our forecast in December. Each cut reduces NIM by approximately 5 basis points subject to a deposit beta. We expect total operating expenses to increase by a mid-single-digit percent. This contemplates our expectation for compliance-related costs to be approximately $500 million this year. Total expenses may increase as incremental resources or remediation is required. We expect net charge-offs in the range of 4.9% to 5.3%.

包括投影片 11 中我們對 2024 年的看法。其中排除了潛在的學生貸款組合出售的影響。我們預計期末貸款成長將相對持平，而平均貸款成長將同比小幅上升。我們預計全年淨利差為10.5%至10.8%。我們目前預計 2024 年將降息四次，每次降息 25 個基點。這比我們 12 月的預測多降息兩次。每次削減都會使淨利差減少約 5 個基點，但受存款貝塔影響。我們預計總營運費用將增加中個位數百分比。這考慮到我們預計今年合規相關成本約為 5 億美元。隨著資源增加或需要修復，總費用可能會增加。我們預計淨沖銷範圍為 4.9% 至 5.3%。

Finally, regarding capital return. We will participate in this year's CCAR's process and believe the results should help inform our view of capital management for 2024. Importantly, our capital management priorities have not changed and remain centered on supporting organic growth and returning capital to shareholders.

最後，關於資本回報。我們將參與今年的 CCAR 流程，並相信結果應有助於我們對 2024 年資本管理的看法。重要的是，我們的資本管理優先事項沒有改變，仍然以支持有機增長和向股東返還資本為中心。

To summarize, we continue to generate solid financial results. For 2024, we will continue to advance our compliance and risk management capabilities and existing methods that drive sustainable, long-term value creation.

總而言之，我們持續取得穩健的財務表現。 2024 年，我們將繼續提高合規和風險管理能力以及推動永續、長期價值創造的現有方法。

With that, I'll turn the call back to our operator to open the line for Q&A.

這樣，我會將電話轉回給我們的接線員，以開通問答線路。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

Our first question will come from Rick Shane with JPMorgan.

我們的第一個問題將來自摩根大通的 Rick Shane。

The -- excuse me, I'm not a little under the weather today, so I apologize. The loan growth expectations, is that organic loan growth or is that net of the portfolio sale of the student loans?

對不起，我今天不太舒服，所以我道歉。貸款成長預期是有機貸款成長還是學生貸款組合銷售的淨成長？

Rick, John Greene here. That is organic loan growth. So all of the guidance excluded the impact of a potential student loan asset sale.

瑞克，約翰·格林在這裡。這就是貸款的有機成長。因此，所有指導意見都排除了潛在的學生貸款資產出售的影響。

Our next question will come from Moshe Orenbuch with TD Cowen.

我們的下一個問題將由 Moshe Orenbuch 和 TD Cowen 提出。

John, maybe just a follow-up on Rick's question. I mean given the strong growth that you're currently seeing in the Personal Loan business, and the fact that you're still adding accounts, albeit at a lower level in the Credit Card business, you did mention kind of lower balance transfers, but is there something else going on? Can you talk about kind of deconstruct that loan growth expectation for us a little bit?

約翰，也許只是里克問題的後續。我的意思是，考慮到您目前在個人貸款業務中看到的強勁增長，以及您仍在增加帳戶的事實，儘管在信用卡業務中處於較低水平，您確實提到了較低的餘額轉賬，但是還有其他事情嗎？您能否談談對我們的貸款成長預期的解構？

Sure. Sure. Thanks, Moshe. So the onus of loan growth sales, new account generation, payment rate trends. And so what we're anticipating for sales given the slowdown through 2023 in terms of sales, although we did have a pretty strong holiday season is that sales will be relatively flat year-over-year. New account generation relative to last year, certainly down, but overall positive new account growth. And payment rate, what we've tried to do here is kind of derisk the forecast. So we assume that 100 basis points of payment rate that's elevated versus 2019 will remain elevated.

當然。當然。謝謝，摩西。因此，貸款成長的責任是銷售、新帳戶產生、還款率趨勢。因此，鑑於 2023 年銷售放緩，我們預計銷售將同比相對持平，儘管我們確實經歷了一個相當強勁的假期季節。新帳戶產生量相對於去年肯定有所下降，但新帳戶整體呈正成長。至於支付率，我們在這裡試圖做的是降低預測的風險。因此，我們假設支付率較 2019 年提高 100 個基點，並將繼續保持在較高水準。

So those three components reflect end up coming in and reflecting on our projections. Now loan growth could actually come in higher if payment rate continues to decline. But overall, our basis for guidance, loan growth, net interest margin and charge-offs was to give a range and then also be relatively conservative in terms of the expectations on those ranges.

因此，這三個組成部分最終會反映並反映在我們的預測中。現在，如果還款率繼續下降，貸款成長實際上可能會更高。但總體而言，我們指導、貸款成長、淨利差和沖銷的基礎是給出一個範圍，然後對這些範圍的預期也相對保守。

Great. And maybe just as a follow-up on the credit side. I mean, you did talk a month ago and then mentioned again today that you expect kind of losses to peak around the middle of the year. How do we think about the performance after that peak? I mean, you said kind of flattish. What's driving that? Why isn't that something that improves? And how do we think about reserving in that context?

偉大的。也許只是作為信用方面的後續行動。我的意思是，您確實一個月前談過，然後今天再次提到您預計損失將在年中左右達到頂峰。我們如何看待高峰之後的表現？我的意思是，你說得有點平淡。是什麼推動了這一點？為什麼這沒有改善？在這種情況下我們如何考慮保留？

Sure. Yes. So there's a couple of different components that are driving that. So if you go back in time, we had about two years of unusually low charge-offs and delinquencies, so from the pandemic. And that process of normalization, typically will take about the same amount of time, two years. The vintages, '21 and '22 are seasoning, and that's why we expect it to plateau. The '23 vintage actually was relatively large, but too early to call whether it's going to outperform our expectations, but certainly, a highly profitable vintage from our vantage point today.

當然。是的。因此，有幾個不同的組件在推動這一點。因此，如果你回顧過去，我們有大約兩年的沖銷和拖欠率異常低，這是由於疫情造成的。而正常化過程通常需要大約相同的時間，也就是兩年。 '21 和 '22 年份正在調味，這就是為什麼我們預計它會趨於穩定。 23 年年份實際上相對較大，但判斷它是否會超出我們的預期還為時過早，但從我們今天的角度來看，可以肯定的是，這是一個利潤豐厚的年份。

So what you're actually just seeing is a period of normalization. My expectation is that charge-offs will plateau and then and beginning in '25, I would expect those to step down. Now you will know from this past year and the prior year, what we've tried to do in terms of the guidance is the conservative in terms of the range. And throughout 2023, we tightened the range and actually came in at the low end. So my hope is that we'll be able to do the same thing in 2024.

所以你實際上看到的是一個正常化時期。我的預期是沖銷將趨於穩定，然後從 25 年開始，我預計沖銷將會減少。現在你會知道，從去年和前一年來看，我們在指導方面所做的努力是在範圍上保守。整個 2023 年，我們收緊了範圍，實際上進入了低端。所以我希望我們能夠在 2024 年做同樣的事情。

Our next question will come from Ryan Nash with Goldman Sachs.

我們的下一個問題將來自高盛的瑞安·納許。

John, maybe to dig a little bit deeper on some of the commentary you gave regarding loan growth. Maybe just focusing on the account growth. The market clearly thinks there's a better chance of a soft landing right now. We're seeing peers who are talking about mid- to high single-digit growth. And I'm just curious on the account growth. Is this more just conservative underwriting? Are you trying to make sure that you make more progress on risk governance and compliance before you increase growth? Maybe just a little bit more color on why you're seeing such a slowdown in terms of the account growth relative to the last few years.

約翰，也許要更深入地了解您對貸款成長的一些評論。也許只是專注於帳戶增長。市場顯然認為現在軟著陸的機會更大。我們看到同行正在談論中高個位數的成長。我只是對帳戶增長感到好奇。這是否只是保守的承保？您是否試圖確保在成長之前在風險治理和合規性方面取得更多進展？也許只是更詳細地說明為什麼您會看到帳戶成長相對於過去幾年如此放緩。

Yes. Thanks, Ryan. So our approach in '23 and then early into '24 was that we took a look at underwriting and performance of, what I'll say, buckets within our underwriting box. And essentially tightened and we've tightened throughout 2023.

是的。謝謝，瑞安。因此，我們在 23 年以及 24 年初採取的方法是，我們檢視了承保範圍內的承保和績效。本質上是收緊的，我們在 2023 年都收緊了。

What you're seeing here in terms of account growth, at least projections today, is us getting back to 2018 and '19 levels as we continue to watch the '22 and '23 vintage perform. And six months from now, we may end up stepping in a little bit more aggressively. But what we wanted to do certainly was let kind of get further confirmation that the delinquency trends that we have seen in terms of slowing rate of delinquency formation continue to persist and that the charge-offs, the forecasted come in at or better than our expectations. If those two factors are at play, there will be an opportunity to be more aggressive in terms of new account growth.

您在這裡看到的帳戶成長（至少今天的預測）是我們回到了 2018 年和 19 年的水平，同時我們繼續觀察 22 和 23 年份的表現。六個月後，我們最終可能會更積極地介入。但我們當然想做的是讓我們進一步確認，我們所看到的拖欠形成率放緩的拖欠趨勢繼續存在，並且沖銷、預測達到或好於我們的預期。如果這兩個因素發揮作用，那麼就有機會在新帳戶成長方面更加積極地進行。

Got it. And maybe as my follow-up, can you maybe help us understand where you stand with the student loan sale? And how would you foresee that impacting the outlook as well as capital return over the next four to six quarters?

知道了。也許作為我的後續行動，您能否幫助我們了解您在學生貸款銷售方面的立場？您預計這將如何影響未來四到六個季度的前景和資本回報？

Yes. Thanks, Ryan. So good news. So it is actually progressing to schedule. So as a matter of fact, last evening, we signed a servicing agreement with Nelnet to become the servicer of this portfolio. So that was great news. It was a competitive process. And certainly, Nelnet showed that there's a commitment to continue to dedicate resources and service that portfolio at a high level.

是的。謝謝，瑞安。好消息。所以它實際上正在按計劃進行。事實上，昨晚我們與 Nelnet 簽署了服務協議，成為該產品組合的服務商。這是個好消息。這是一個競爭的過程。當然，Nelnet 表明我們致力於繼續為該產品組合提供高水準的資源和服務。

The next step will be to continue the servicing migration activities. We expect those activities will take around 6 months. We're conservatively it may take a month or two longer. And then as we're doing that, our adviser will begin to market the portfolio. So our expectations are that it will sell in the second half. And the implications for the business are as follows: So there's $9.5 billion of receivables. That equates to risk-weighted assets of about $10.8 billion. We expect that, that will be -- the exit of that will be -- have a positive impact on net interest margin by somewhere between 10 and 20 bps on a full year basis. Charge-off rate could tick up mildly, so under 5 bps. And as of 12/31, we had $858 million of reserves. So with a successful exit, those reserves will drop. And the sale price, the market will determine that, but we expect it to go above par.

下一步將繼續進行服務遷移活動。我們預計這些活動將需要大約 6 個月的時間。我們保守估計可能需要一兩個月的時間。然後當我們這樣做時，我們的顧問將開始行銷投資組合。所以我們的期望是它會在下半年出售。對業務的影響如下： 應收帳款為 95 億美元。這相當於風險加權資產約 108 億美元。我們預計，退出將對全年淨利差產生 10 至 20 個基點的正面影響。沖銷率可能會溫和上升，因此低於 5 個基點。截至 12 月 31 日，我們擁有 8.58 億美元的儲備金。因此，如果成功退出，這些儲備將會下降。至於銷售價格，市場將決定，但我們預期它會高於標準價格。

Your next question will come from Mihir Bhatia with Bank of America.

您的下一個問題將由美國銀行的 Mihir Bhatia 提出。

We're going to start with loan growth also. And I just want to go back to the building blocks a little bit. I think you essentially said in terms of the building blocks, you're expecting payments rates to be elevated like flat to stay at the elevated level and sales to be flat. You're also adding accounts. So I'm just like trying to understand I guess, what's the [bad guy]? Like how does loan growth stay flat given this year, you have 15%. I'm just trying to understand like -- that's something we're missing, I feel like, and I'm just trying to understand that.

我們也將從貸款成長開始。我只想稍微回到一下構建模組。我認為您基本上是在建立模組方面說的，您預計付款率將保持在較高水平，銷售額將持平。您還要新增帳戶。所以我想嘗試理解，我想，[壞人] 是什麼？就像今年貸款成長如何保持平穩一樣，你有 15%。我只是想理解——我覺得這是我們所缺少的東西，我只是想理解這一點。

Yes. So let me try to give a little bit of color that hopefully gets folks comfortable with our view of loan growth today. So in 2023, really, really strong loan growth. Much of that was driven both by new account growth, but also a slowing payment rate, that payment rate in our assumptions is holding flat. And as a result, what we expect to see is the 2023 vintage will begin to kind of build in terms of assets, but there's likely going to be some impact from sales. And then also as we cycle through the 2022 vintage, we're not expecting significant new balance builds from that vintage.

是的。因此，讓我嘗試提供一些色彩，希望能讓人們對我們今天對貸款成長的看法感到滿意。因此，到 2023 年，貸款成長將非常非常強勁。其中大部分是由新帳戶成長和付款率放緩推動的，我們假設的付款率持平。因此，我們預計 2023 年年份的資產將開始增加，但銷售可能會產生一些影響。然後，當我們回顧 2022 年年份時，我們預計該年份不會出現重大的新平衡。

Now maybe there will be. But overall, what we've tried to do here is reflect our view of our underwriting box today, not reflect any potential openings of our underwriting box in the later part of 2023. And if we out deliver on loan growth, that will be fantastic. The other element that has come into play here as we pulled back on balance transfers and promotional balances in the second part of 2023. We don't anticipate significantly increasing that level of balance transfer, promotional balances. Now if we do, that will certainly be accretive to loan growth as well. So what you're hearing in the guidance is that our expectation is that there's an opportunity to deliver better. But certainly, we've positioned both the guidance and the business to be conservative at least for the next quarter or 2.

現在也許會有。但總的來說，我們在這裡試圖做的是反映我們對今天承銷箱的看法，而不是反映我們在2023 年下半年承銷箱的任何潛在空缺。如果我們能夠實現貸款增長，那將是非常棒的。當我們在 2023 年下半年減少餘額轉移和促銷餘額時，另一個因素也開始發揮作用。我們預計不會顯著增加餘額轉移和促銷餘額的水平。現在，如果我們這樣做，那肯定也會促進貸款成長。因此，您在指南中聽到的是，我們的期望是有機會提供更好的服務。但可以肯定的是，我們至少在下一兩個季度的指導和業務上都保持保守。

Got it. And then I wanted to go back to the expenses and the reserve for customer remediation that you mentioned that you took this quarter. Can you just provide some more color on that? Like is that related to the merchant mispricing issue? How much was the reserve this quarter? Where does that leave the reserve overall, I think you had $365 million in 2Q. Just trying to understand how the estimate for the costs related to that issue changed? I think you also mentioned it could be higher -- expenses would be higher in '24. If you need to take more reserves there, like -- where are we with that investigation? Just give us an update on that merchant mispricing issue too?

知道了。然後我想回到您提到的本季的費用和客戶補救準備金。你能提供更多的顏色嗎？這是否與商家定價錯誤問題有關？本季準備金是多少？整體儲備金在哪裡，我認為第二季有 3.65 億美元。只是想了解與該問題相關的成本估算如何變化？我想你也提到它可能會更高——24 年的費用會更高。如果你需要在那裡採取更多儲備，例如——我們的調查進度到了什麼程度？請給我們提供有關商家定價錯誤問題的最新資訊嗎？

Yes. Okay. So let me start with the reserves so -- and the remediation reserve that we put up. So they're unrelated. So the merchant tiering reserve we booked $365 million as a liability, that has moved now about $370 million just as we've had some payments and other flows in through the interchange that we had to correct manually for. So the progress there in terms of discussions with our merchants is positive. We'll -- we don't have enough data points to make a material change to that reserve level yet, but it's progressing, my view, positively through the end of the year and today as we speak.

是的。好的。讓我從儲備金以及我們設立的補救儲備金開始。所以他們是不相關的。因此，我們將 3.65 億美元的商家分級準備金記作負債，現在已經移動了約 3.7 億美元，就像我們透過交換有一些付款和其他流量需要手動更正一樣。因此，與我們的商家的討論取得了積極的進展。我們將——我們還沒有足夠的數據點來對儲備水平做出實質改變，但我認為，到今年年底和今天我們說話時，它正在積極進展。

Now separately, we put up $80 million for a -- as we described it, a customer remediation reserve. Now some context to that is as part of this compliance journey, we've put in a significant number of resources to help us identify and correct issues. And as we prepare the business to continue to move forward to drive organic growth, we're getting much, much better at identifying issues and we identify an issue. What we've done here is if we think there's is appropriate to refund customer payments, we're going to do that. So we identified a particular issue largely within servicing for our student loan business, although there was a general impact in another business line and we continue to look across our business. But the lion's share of that reserve relates to student loans and essentially what we're doing is trying to position the business and that product for a successful exit.

現在，我們單獨投入了 8000 萬美元作為客戶補救準備金——正如我們所描述的那樣。現在，作為合規之旅的一部分，我們投入了大量資源來幫助我們識別和糾正問題。當我們準備業務繼續向前推動有機成長時，我們在發現問題方面做得越來越好，並且我們發現了問題。我們在這裡所做的是，如果我們認為有適當的方式退還客戶付款，我們就會這樣做。因此，我們在學生貸款業務的服務中發現了一個主要問題，儘管對另一個業務線產生了普遍影響，並且我們繼續審視我們的業務。但該儲備金的大部分與學生貸款有關，從本質上講，我們正在做的就是努力定位業務和產品，以便成功退出。

Our question will come from Sanjay Sakhrani with KBW.

我們的問題將來自 KBW 的 Sanjay Sakhrani。

Sorry, multi-part question on the same topic and then a follow-up. Can you update us, John, on the progress made with the regulatory agencies, I think that was sort of alluded to in the previous question. But maybe just the firmness around capital return post CCAR? What exactly happens to the CFPB consent order when the loan servicing is transferred? And then just curious, the loan growth expectations, was that any part driven by any regulatory related matters?

抱歉，關於同一主題的多部分問題，然後是後續問題。約翰，您能否向我們介紹一下與監管機構取得的進展的最新情況，我認為這在上一個問題中有所提及。但也許只是 CCAR 後資本回報的堅定性？當貸款服務轉移時，CFPB 同意令到底會發生什麼？然後只是好奇，貸款成長預期是否是由任何監管相關問題所驅動的？

This is John Owen. I'll take part of that, and John Greene will take the capital part. What I would tell you is over the last 18 months or so, we made significant progress improving our risk management and compliance capabilities. We've increased our investments on risk and compliance in 2022 to 2023 up to about a $500 million level. And as John mentioned earlier, we think expense growth, and that will be in the mid-single digits in line with other guidance we've given. We've made improvements in risk and compliance, but we still have quite a bit of work to do.

這是約翰歐文。我將參與其中，約翰·格林將承擔主要部分。我想告訴您的是，在過去 18 個月左右的時間裡，我們在提高風險管理和合規能力方面取得了重大進展。 2022 年至 2023 年，我們將風險與合規的投資增加至約 5 億美元。正如約翰之前提到的，我們認為費用成長將在中個位數，與我們給出的其他指導一致。我們在風險和合規性方面做出了改進，但仍有大量工作要做。

One thing I'd point out, the FDIC consent order, which we did get and was made public, it does not include the misclassification issue in that scope of work. We're working closely with our regulators on that topic and really don't have anything further to add on that topic at this point in time.

我要指出的一件事是，我們確實獲得並公開了 FDIC 同意令，它不包括該工作範圍中的錯誤分類問題。我們正在與監管機構就該主題密切合作，目前確實沒有任何關於該主題的進一步補充。

Okay. Sanjay, I feel like your question is a 5-part question, but what we'll do our best to answer it. So the loan growth aspect that you asked, it is completely unrelated to any regulatory issues. So nothing to connect on that point.

好的。 Sanjay，我覺得你的問題是由 5 部分組成的問題，但我們會盡力回答。所以你問的貸款成長方面，它與任何監管問題完全無關。所以在這一點上沒有任何關聯。

In terms of capital return, our commitment to capital return and capital allocation have not changed. So first, to invest in profitable organic growth; and second, to return excess capital to shareholders. So as we kind of progressed through the fourth quarter, we remained on pause with our buybacks. And given we've got a new CEO coming in, we are contending with a number of different compliance and risk management matters. We got the merchant (inaudible) reserve. We don't have any feedback from our regulators on that point. We decided that it would be most appropriate to remain conservative in terms of our guidance related to buybacks.

在資本回報方面，我們對資本回報和資本配置的承諾並沒有改變。首先，投資於可獲利的有機成長；第二，將多餘資本回饋給股東。因此，當我們在第四季度取得進展時，我們的回購仍然暫停。鑑於我們有了新的首席執行官，我們正在應對許多不同的合規和風險管理問題。我們得到了商家（聽不清楚）的儲備金。我們沒有收到監管機構關於這一點的任何回饋。我們認為，在與回購相關的指導方面保持保守是最合適的。

We will go through CCARs, as I said in my prepared remarks, that will form a view of capital under significant stress as it always does. And then we're going to have the exit or hopefully, the exit from the Student Loan business, which will provide free up at least $2 billion worth of capital. So what you're hearing here hopefully is some indications that one, we're committed to returning excess capital to shareholders; two, that there will be excess capital generated and available; and three, we're going to go through a diligent process internally, share it with our Board and then take the Board's direction in terms of buybacks.

正如我在準備好的演講中所說，我們將透過 CCAR 進行審查，這將形成一種對在巨大壓力下的資本的看法，就像往常一樣。然後我們將退出或希望退出學生貸款業務，這將釋放至少價值 20 億美元的資本。因此，您希望在這裡聽到的一些跡象表明，第一，我們致力於將多餘的資本回饋給股東；第二，將會有多餘的資本產生和可用；第三，我們將在內部進行嚴格的流程，與董事會分享，然後在回購方面遵循董事會的指示。

The consent order?

同意令？

And...

和...

With the loan servicing, like does that move...

透過貸款服務，就像這樣移動...

Yes, that was part 5A, I think. Yes. So that remains in effect and our chosen provider, Nelnet is fully aware of the consent order requirements in terms of kind of servicing excellence. And they were chosen because they've got a track record in terms of being able to kind of service a portfolio such as this, and they've dedicated both technology and resources to ensure a seamless transition.

是的，我想那是第 5A 部分。是的。因此，這項規定仍然有效，而且我們選擇的提供者 Nelnet 充分了解同意令在卓越服務方面的要求。選擇他們是因為他們在為此類產品組合提供服務方面擁有良好的記錄，並且他們投入了技術和資源來確保無縫過渡。

Okay. Then my follow-up, just question is -- sorry, to my 5-part question. Is the reserve rate, Moshe sort of asked about it a little bit, but how should we think about that reserve rate migrating over the course of the year given that the charge-off rate plateaus. Does the reserve rates start coming down? And where does it come down to in a normal environment? I'm just trying to think about how we model that because that's really important.

好的。然後我的後續問題是——抱歉，我的問題由 5 部分組成。摩西詢問了一點準備率，但考慮到沖銷率趨於穩定，我們應該如何考慮準備金率在這一年中的變化。準備金率開始下降嗎？在正常環境下，它會歸結為什麼呢？我只是想思考我們如何建模，因為這非常重要。

Yes, yes. We are hoping that, that question would come out. So the -- let me talk about the reserves for that quarter, and then I'll give some perspective on '24 and what could potentially happen there. So we grew receivables in the quarter, $5.7 billion. Now some of that was transactor balances that are reserved light. But one thing that we've been consistent on in terms of our communication is that as we approach peak losses, reserve levels increase. And what we've said previously is, typically, we hit the highest reserve rate level one to two quarters before peak losses. So that's the path we're on.

是的是的。我們希望這個問題能夠得到解答。因此，讓我談談該季度的儲備金，然後我將給出一些關於 24 年以及那裡可能發生的情況的觀點。因此，我們本季的應收帳款成長了 57 億美元。現在其中一些是交易者餘額，這些餘額是輕量保留的。但我們在溝通方面一直堅持的一件事是，當我們接近損失高峰時，準備金水準就會增加。我們之前說過，通常情況下，我們會在損失達到高峰前一到兩個季度達到最高準備金率水準。這就是我們正在走的路。

Let me provide some details on some assumptions that were used to set the reserve levels this year at year-end. And then I'll give a perspective on what we -- what could happen in 2024. So macro is relatively benign. So unemployment levels, we ended the year at 3.7% what we've assumed is an unemployment level of 4.2%. So a mild increase, household net worth, mild decrease, savings rate, mild increase and GDP to be in 2024 to be about 1.3%. So relatively conservative but not overly optimistic of assumptions.

讓我提供一些用於設定今年年底準備金水平的假設的細節。然後我將對 2024 年可能發生的事情給出一個看法。因此，宏觀經濟相對良性。因此，今年底失業率為 3.7%，我們假設的失業率為 4.2%。因此，家庭淨資產溫和下降，儲蓄率溫和成長，2024年GDP將約為1.3%。所以相對保守但不過分樂觀的假設。

Now what will come into play in 2024 is obviously the macros, which will continue to be important. The portfolio performance and -- by the way, it is tracking to our expectations with month-over-month delinquency formation declining. The credit quality of the book remains relatively consistent with what we've done historically. So our expectation is that assuming the macros remain consistent and the portfolio performance remains to our expectation that there will be some level of opportunity to reduce the reserve rate in 2024.

現在，到 2024 年發揮作用的顯然是宏觀因素，它將繼續發揮重要作用。順便說一句，投資組合的表現正符合我們的預期，拖欠率逐月下降。這本書的信用品質與我們歷史上所做的保持相對一致。因此，我們的預期是，假設宏觀經濟保持一致且投資組合表現符合我們的預期，2024 年將有一定程度的降低準備金率的機會。

Now that's subject to a significant amount of governance, and we're going to we're going to make sure that we comply with our internal processes and generally accepted accounting principles. So they're my caveats. But there's a lot of things that are different today than day one. So the step down will be aligned with those points I just mentioned.

現在，這受到大量的治理，我們將確保遵守我們的內部流程和公認的會計原則。所以它們是我的警告。但今天有很多事情與第一天不同。因此，降級將與我剛才提到的那些點保持一致。

Our next question will come from Bill Carcache with Wolfe Research.

我們的下一個問題將來自沃爾夫研究中心的比爾·卡卡什。

John, I wanted to follow up on your credit commentary, given that it is such an important area of focus for investors. So you've been saying all along that you didn't move down the credit spectrum, but the concern for many investors had been that other card issuers also experienced outsized growth as we emerge from COVID and they had also experienced some normalization headwinds, but they were now starting to see delinquency reformation start to roll over. As Discover's DQ rate formations as recently as prior months data showed that your formations remain on and up until the right trajectory. So I guess the question is, does the new disclosure on Slide 14 confirm that your delinquency rate formations are indeed now also starting to roll over? And if so, does that really just reinforce your confidence that we could see peak NCOs hit in 2024, all else equal?

約翰，我想跟進您的信用評論，因為這是投資者關注的重要領域。因此，您一直在說，您的信貸範圍並沒有下降，但許多投資者一直擔心的是，隨著我們擺脫新冠疫情，其他發卡機構也經歷了大幅增長，而且他們也經歷了一些正常化的阻力，但是他們現在開始看到犯罪改革開始滾動。正如 Discover 的 DQ 匯率形態最近幾個月的數據顯示，您的形態一直保持在正確的軌跡上。所以我想問題是，投影片 14 上的新揭露是否證實你們的拖欠率構成現在確實也開始滾動？如果是這樣，這是否真的會增強您的信心，即在其他條件相同的情況下，我們可以在 2024 年看到 NCO 數量達到高峰？

Yes. And thanks for the question, Bill. So just to give you kind of the benefit of some data here. From September through December this year, so the 30-plus delinquencies have declined month-over-month. So in September, we peaked at an increase month-over-month of 26 bps. What we said in the fourth quarter is we expected that to decline. Our October formation increased 20 bps so relative to decline to the prior month. November 15 bps, December 11 bps. And our expectation is that will continue to decline.

是的。謝謝你的提問，比爾。所以只是為了讓您從這裡的一些數據中受益。今年9月至12月，有30多家拖欠率逐月下降。因此，9 月份，我們的環比增幅達到 26 個基點。我們在第四季所說的是我們預計這一數字將會下降。相對於上個月的下降，我們 10 月的形成增加了 20 個基點。 11 月 15 個基點，12 月 11 個基點。我們的預期是，這一數字將繼續下降。

Where it becomes negative, we're not going to get into that because it will be subject to a number of different things, including kind of our origination path and broad macro. To get to the essence of your question, we do have a level of confidence regarding kind of what's happening in the portfolio and the trend. And as we progress in 2024 that will be reflected in hopefully, tightening guidance and then also tightening guidance to the lower end and then also, hopefully, reserve rate changes.

如果它變得消極，我們不會介入，因為它會受到許多不同因素的影響，包括我們的起源路徑和廣泛的宏觀因素。為了了解您問題的本質，我們確實對投資組合和趨勢中發生的情況有一定程度的信心。隨著我們在 2024 年取得進展，這將有望反映在收緊指導、然後收緊至較低端的指導，然後還有希望改變準備金率。

That's helpful. And following up on your expense commentary, I believe you said that expenses may need to increase further potentially. Maybe if you could frame the possibility of their being -- what you would view as another step function higher from here? Or how should we think about the risk of further increase in expenses? And how are we -- how should we think about your sustainable long-term efficiency ratio? I think as we look at historically, Discover has been very, very much had lowest efficiency ratio in the industry. To what extent is that still something that we can expect?

這很有幫助。根據您對費用的評論，我相信您說過費用可能需要進一步增加。也許如果你能構思出它們存在的可能性——你認為從這裡到更高的另一個台階函數是什麼？或者說我們該如何看待費用進一步增加的風險？我們應該如何考慮您的永續長期效率比？我認為，從歷史來看，Discover 的效率在業界是非常非常低的。這在多大程度上仍然是我們可以期待的？

Okay. Yes. Thanks, Bill. So our expectation is that the long-term efficiency ratio will be sub-40%. So there's still a view that, that will happen. The reason we put the, what I'll call is the caveat in the 2024 expense guidance was a number of different institutions when they've been on this compliance and risk management journey have not been able to call what the actual compliance and risk management spend would be. We had that remediation reserve in the fourth quarter. There were some indications that we might have to put something up for that. But we didn't know. There's still some level of unknowns, unknowns. And I wanted to make sure we're clear to the people listening to this call that there is some level of risk to the expense guidance.

好的。是的。謝謝，比爾。因此我們預計長期效率將低於 40%。所以仍然有一種觀點認為，這種情況將會發生。我們之所以在 2024 年費用指南中提出警告，是因為許多不同的機構在進行合規和風險管理之旅時無法稱呼實際的合規和風險管理花費會。我們在第四季有補救儲備。有一些跡象表明我們可能需要為此做些什麼。但我們不知道。仍然存在一定程度的未知、未知。我想確保我們向收聽此電話會議的人們明確表示，費用指南存在一定程度的風險。

Now that said, 5% on our expense base is a significant amount of dollars. We feel like we have nearly a full complement of resources around risk and compliance today, which is good news. Our issues management capabilities significantly improved. Our path to improving overall governance is certainly on the right trajectory. So those factors give me confidence that we're not going to have a huge surprise. But there could be just -- we just don't have enough certainty given where we are on our compliance journey.

話雖如此，5% 對我們的開支基數來說是一筆不小的數目。我們覺得今天我們在風險和合規方面擁有幾乎完整的資源，這是個好消息。我們的問題管理能力顯著提升。我們改善整體治理的道路無疑是走在正確的軌道上。因此，這些因素讓我相信我們不會有巨大的意外。但可能只是 - 考慮到我們在合規之旅中的位置，我們只是沒有足夠的確定性。

Now the rest of the cost base, there's a couple of things to keep in mind here. So right today, we have nearly 3,000 resources dedicated to risk and compliance management. A significant amount of those resources are dedicated to issues related to student loan servicing, which with a successful exit and transfer, it will give us an opportunity to scrutinize the cost base in a different way. So that's certainly on the list of planned activities for the second quarter, third quarter, and then hopefully, we begin some execution in the fourth quarter. So overall, I feel comfortable with the expense guidance that we've provided. And we're going to do our best to make sure that every dollar we spend is wise and that the shareholders get the benefit from that.

現在剩下的成本基礎，這裡有幾件事要記住。目前，我們擁有近 3,000 名資源專門用於風險和合規管理。這些資源中有很大一部分專門用於與學生貸款服務相關的問題，如果成功退出和轉移，這將使我們有機會以不同的方式審查成本基礎。因此，這肯定在第二季、第三季的計畫活動清單中，然後希望我們在第四季開始執行一些活動。總的來說，我對我們提供的費用指導感到滿意。我們將盡最大努力確保我們花的每一塊錢都是明智的，並確保股東從中受益。

Very helpful.

很有幫助。

You're welcome, Bill Thanks.

不客氣，比爾，謝謝。

Our next question will come from John Pancari with Evercore ISI.

我們的下一個問題將來自 Evercore ISI 的 John Pancari。

Good morning. Regarding the new $80 million remediation charge, did all of that remediation relate to the Student Loan business, specifically, and was that in part tied also to the July '22 disclosure around the Student Loan issues that surfaced then? And did any of that $80 million relate to the other business that you point that you mentioned that could have had a tangential impact and what was that business?

早安.關於新的 8000 萬美元補救費用，所有補救措施是否都與學生貸款業務有關，特別是，這是否也部分與 22 年 7 月關於當時出現的學生貸款問題的披露有關？這 8000 萬美元中的任何一個是否與您提到的其他可能產生間接影響的業務有關？那項業務是什麼？

Yes. So the $80 million was related to servicing issues, the lion's share of that, the significant share of that was related to student loans. There was a small amount that we put up related to personal loans upon reviewing that, there may be an opportunity to release that reserve, very small though. The $80 million is not connected to the issues that we discussed in July.

是的。因此，8000 萬美元與服務問題有關，其中很大一部分與學生貸款有關。經過審查，我們存入了一小筆與個人貸款相關的資金，可能有機會釋放該準備金，儘管金額很小。 8000 萬美元與我們 7 月討論的問題無關。

So what I tried to do is provide as much context as I could. So we've dedicated a number of resources to identifying issues to help us on this consumer compliance journey. As with any company, as you dedicated resources, they come up to speed, they are going to get more effective at identifying issues and correcting issues. This is symptomatic of that progress. So we've got folks that are coming through every single bit of our business to make sure we're executing consumer compliance at a high level. An issue was found. Cross-functional team reviewed it, and we made an election that we are going to accrue something at year-end to cover potential remediation payments.

所以我試圖做的就是提供盡可能多的背景資訊。因此，我們投入了大量資源來識別問題，以幫助我們完成消費者合規之旅。與任何公司一樣，當您投入資源時，他們就會加快速度，從而更有效地發現問題並糾正問題。這是這種進步的徵兆。因此，我們有專人負責我們業務的每一個細節，以確保我們高水準地執行消費者合規性。發現一個問題。跨職能團隊對其進行了審查，我們決定在年底累積一些資金來支付潛在的補救費用。

Okay. And just related to that, this -- so this is a newer issue versus what was discussed in July? And is it also newer versus what is in your existing consent order tied to student loans?

好的。與此相關的是，與 7 月討論的問題相比，這是一個新問題？與您現有的與學生貸款相關的同意令中的內容相比，它是否也較新？

Yes. So what we disclosed in July was a broad program around risk and compliance management activities. This -- the specifics of the particular issues weren't discussed in any details. And what I've shared with you right now is probably as much information as I'm going to share at this point.

是的。因此，我們在 7 月揭露了一項圍繞風險和合規管理活動的廣泛計劃。這一點——具體問題的細節沒有進行任何細節討論。我現在與您分享的資訊可能與我此時將要分享的資訊一樣多。

So the takeaway should be is that we're progressing on the risk and compliance management activities. We're getting better at identifying issues. When we find an issue, we're going to deal with it. And we found an issue. We've put up a reserve for that issue. And we're going to work through further details on it in order to ensure that consumer compliance is where we want it to be. So with that, I think I'll probably close at this particular item out, if you don't mind.

因此，我們應該得出的結論是，我們在風險和合規管理活動方面正在取得進展。我們越來越善於發現問題。當我們發現問題時，我們就會處理它。我們發現了一個問題。我們已經為此問題設立了儲備金。我們將進一步研究細節，以確保消費者的合規性符合我們的期望。因此，如果您不介意的話，我想我可能會結束這個特定的項目。

No, that's fine. And my last thing is a very quick one on the loan growth guidance. You guided to average balances for '24 up modestly. Can you help maybe quantify the up modestly, if you could really help frame it. Thanks.

不，沒關係。我的最後一件事是關於貸款成長指導的非常快速的一件事。您將 24 年的平均餘額適度提高了。如果你真的能幫忙建造它，你能幫忙稍微量化一下嗎？謝謝。

Yes. So 5% to 6% on average.

是的。所以平均是 5% 到 6%。

Our next question comes from Don Fandetti with Wells Fargo.

我們的下一個問題來自富國銀行的 Don Fandetti。

John, it's good to see the delinquency formation showing some progress. Can you talk about later-stage delinquency rates? I mean, they seem like they're still going up on a year-over-year basis. Like how are cure rates? I'm still trying to get my arms around this, like potentially 5% NCO rate, it just seems high for Discover.

約翰，很高興看到犯罪組織取得了一些進展。能談談後期的拖欠率嗎？我的意思是，它們似乎仍在逐年上升。例如治癒率如何？我仍在努力解決這個問題，例如可能有 5% 的 NCO 率，這對 Discover 來說似乎很高。

Yes. Yes, the later-stage buckets are kind of modestly improving. So we're seeing improvements across every bucket. The first bucket is really the key one. And then as you get into later and later buckets, the ability to cure just becomes more challenging because of the situation that the consumer is in, but we are seeing kind of mild improvements there. So that also is encouraging.

是的。是的，後期階段正在適度改善。所以我們看到每個方面都有所改進。第一個桶子確實是關鍵的。然後，當你進入越來越晚的階段時，由於消費者所處的情況，治癒的能力變得更具挑戰性，但我們看到了一些輕微的改進。所以這也是令人鼓舞的。

Okay. And the '23 vintage, can you talk a little bit about what your early read is on that?

好的。至於 23 年份，您能談談您早期讀到的內容嗎？

Yes. The net of it is that it's early. So it's performing profitably, and we're going to continue to keep our eye on it.

是的。最重要的是，現在還早。所以它的表現是有利可圖的，我們將繼續關注它。

Does that mean it's not really trending that well relative to your expectations? Or is it kind of in line?

這是否意味著相對於您的預期，它的趨勢並沒有那麼好？還是有點排隊？

No, no, I didn't say that. It's just -- it's early. So it's performing generally in line with expectations.

不，不，我沒這麼說。只是——現在還早。所以它的表現大致上符合預期。

I'll take our next question from Jeff Adelson with Morgan Stanley.

我將回答摩根士丹利的傑夫阿德爾森提出的下一個問題。

John, I just wanted to kind of follow-up on the charge-off guide. I know you've mentioned that you're hopeful this year coming at the low end. But could you maybe just dive into what would take us to the low versus the high end here? And if this delinquency formation slowing continues throughout the year, is that kind of what's embedded in your expectation at getting at the low end here?

約翰，我只是想跟進沖銷指南。我知道您提到您希望今年的業績處於低端。但您能否深入探討是什麼讓我們走向低端與高端？如果這種拖欠形成的速度在全年持續放緩，這是否是您預期達到低端的原因？

Yes. Thank you. Yes. So our baseline is that it's going to come in at the low end. Now I shared the information in terms of the macros that we use for reserves pretty consistent in terms of what we used for our, what I'll say, the second half view of charge-offs.

是的。謝謝。是的。所以我們的基線是它將進入低端。現在，我分享了有關我們用於儲備的巨集的信息，這些資訊與我們用於後半部沖銷視圖的內容非常一致。

So what could make that worse? Certainly, change to the macros, some servicing issues, which highly unlikely or a miss in terms of forecasting. I'm comfortable with our forecasting team. I'm comfortable with our servicing team and we've got a number of programs, and we've dedicated a lot of dollars in terms of analytics, in terms of call frequency and best time to call, and we've worked on our call scripts to ensure they're compliant but also effective in terms of prioritizing payments. So I feel good about that. So the range just reflects a level of kind of broad uncertainty that we're going to tighten.

那麼什麼會使情況變得更糟呢？當然，宏的改變，一些服務問題，這極不可能或在預測方面是錯誤的。我對我們的預測團隊感到滿意。我對我們的服務團隊感到滿意，我們有很多計劃，我們在分析、呼叫頻率和最佳呼叫時間方面投入了大量資金，並且我們致力於我們的服務調用腳本以確保它們合規且在優先付款方面也有效。所以我對此感覺很好。因此，這個範圍只是反映了我們將收緊的某種廣泛的不確定性水平。

Got it. And just as my follow-up, as we think about the NIM guide this year, I know you mentioned you're embedded in an expectation of four rate cuts. If I think about where NIM exited the year though, it feels like the range of rate cuts using your 5 basis points for every 25, it seems like there's more rate cut that embedded in there. Can you maybe just help us understand the drivers is, there may be a little bit more interest accrual reversal going on? And maybe help us understand what you're assuming in positive betas on the way down? Is it going to be a little bit slower than what we've seen in the last four rate cuts on the way up?

知道了。正如我的後續行動一樣，當我們思考今年的 NIM 指南時，我知道您提到您對四次降息的預期。如果我考慮 NIM 今年的退出情況，感覺就像每 25 個基點使用 5 個基點的降息範圍，似乎其中包含了更多的降息。您能否幫助我們了解驅動因素，可能會發生更多的應計利息逆轉？也許可以幫助我們理解您對下降過程中正貝塔值的假設？其上升速度是否會比我們在過去四次降息中看到的要慢一些？

Yes. So good question. So let me start off with 2023 and then the fourth quarter of 2023. So as a business, my view is great execution in terms of being able to kind of manage net interest margin so year-over-year, we're up. I think we're an outlier, and that's from that standpoint in financial services.

是的。好問題。因此，讓我從 2023 年開始，然後是 2023 年第四季度。因此，作為一家企業，我認為在能夠管理淨息差方面表現出色，因此我們同比增長了。我認為我們是一個異類，這是從金融服務的角度來看的。

What we saw in the fourth quarter was cost of funding increased as lower rate CDs term out and higher rate CDs would come in. Our OSA rate remains competitive. And the expectation on beta is that it will be in the mid-70s in a declining rate. And I hope that the beta on the declining rate is higher. Also something that's not baked into the elements of the guidance. But certainly, with the exit of student loans or the proposed exit from the Student Loan business, that's going to throw a lot of liquidity back into the business. That will give us an opportunity to be slightly more aggressive in terms of deposit pricing. That -- again, that will be a second half activity.

我們在第四季度看到的是，隨著較低利率 CD 的到期和較高利率 CD 的進入，融資成本增加。我們的 OSA 利率仍然具有競爭力。而對 beta 的預期是，它將在 70 年代中期呈現下降趨勢。我希望下降率的貝塔值更高。還有一些未納入指引要素的內容。但可以肯定的是，隨著學生貸款的退出或擬退出學生貸款業務，這將為該業務帶來大量流動性。這將使我們有機會在存款定價方面採取更激進的態度。再說一次，這將是下半年的活動。

So the four rate cuts that we put into the baseline assumption, again, two more than what we had forecasted in December. It could be as many as 6, which if it is, that will certainly impact deposit betas and deposit pricing and consequentially net interest margin. So the guide here, I think, is appropriate, perhaps a little conservative. And our baseline expectation is that we're going to deliver to the upper end of the guidance range.

因此，我們將四次降息納入基準假設，再次比我們 12 月的預測多兩次。可能多達 6 個，如果是的話，肯定會影響存款貝塔係數和存款定價，進而影響淨利差。所以我認為這裡的指南是合適的，也許有點保守。我們的基準預期是我們將實現指導範圍的上限。

We'll take our next question from Terry Ma with Barclays.

我們將接受巴克萊銀行馬特里 (Terry Ma) 提出的下一個問題。

Maybe I just want to touch on the loan growth guide for '24 a little bit. Aside from the balance transfers and promos, how much control do you actually have on growth going from 15% loan growth to 0% just seems like a hard pivot to me. So maybe can you just talk a little bit more about that?

也許我只是想簡單談談 24 年的貸款成長指南。除了餘額轉移和促銷之外，對我來說，從 15% 的貸款增長到 0% 的增長實際上有多少控制權，這似乎是一個艱難的轉變。那也許你可以再多談談這個問題嗎？

And then my second question is just what needs to happen before you can actually grow again, and is there a way to think about what that growth rate looks like as we look out towards 2025 and beyond?

然後我的第二個問題是，在真正實現再次成長之前需要發生什麼？當我們展望 2025 年及以後時，是否有辦法思考成長率是什麼樣的？

Okay. Thanks, Terry. I think it's important to take a look at the quarterly trends on loan growth versus the total year because each quarter, what you will see is that the amount of loan growth decreased quarter-over-quarter. And that was partly due to payment rate, partly due to underwriting standards and partly due to kind of sales activity slowing as well.

好的。謝謝，特里。我認為查看貸款成長與全年總額的季度趨勢很重要，因為每個季度，您都會看到貸款成長量較上季下降。這部分是由於付款率，部分是由於承保標準，部分是由於銷售活動放緩。

So in 2024, we've guided to loan growth to be flat. Again, payment rate is 100 basis points higher than it was in 2019. That could be a positive if it holds where it ended the year. It's not going to impact loan growth. So I feel like what we've tried to do here is put something on the table that's reasonable that doesn't reflect a level of undue risk taking in a time where consumer behavior is actually changing relatively dynamically if you think back 2.5 years ago coming out of the pandemic to kind of where it is today and also the impact of inflation that hit certainly all consumers, but certainly in terms of our prime revolver consumers, the lower third of those consumers were impacted fairly significantly by inflation. So we do want to kind of watch, as I said previously, watch delinquency formations and our other metrics before we press on the gas on generating high level of new accounts in 2024.

因此，到 2024 年，我們指導貸款成長持平。同樣，支付率比 2019 年高出 100 個基點。如果保持在年底的水平，這可能是一個積極因素。這不會影響貸款成長。因此，我覺得我們在這裡嘗試做的就是提出一些合理的建議，但如果你回想 2.5 年前，消費者行為實際上正在相對動態地變化，但不會反映出過度冒險的程度。從大流行到今天的情況以及通貨膨脹的影響肯定會打擊所有消費者，但當然就我們的主要左輪手槍消費者而言，這些消費者中的下三分之一受到通貨膨脹的相當大的影響。因此，正如我之前所說，在我們加強在 2024 年創造高水準新帳戶之前，我們確實希望觀察拖欠情況和其他指標。

And is there a way to think about what growth would look like before when you reaccelerate?

有沒有辦法思考一下當你重新加速時成長會是什麼樣子？

Yes. I would go back to kind of historical growth rates. The companies typically delivered somewhere between 3% and 8% year-over-year growth. And then we feel like our underwriting and credit and the opportunity to lend profitably at a rate higher than that, we will do that. So what -- an important thing for our investors to remember is we seek to generate high returns over the short, mid and long term. And that's essentially what this plan is seeking to deliver.

是的。我會回到歷史成長率。這些公司的年成長率通常在 3% 到 8% 之間。然後我們覺得我們的承銷和信貸以及以高於此利率的貸款獲利的機會，我們會這樣做。那麼，我們的投資者要記住的一件重要的事情是，我們尋求在短期、中期和長期內產生高回報。這本質上就是該計劃尋求實現的目標。

So Todd, I think we have time for one more, please.

托德，我想我們還有時間再談一談。

Thank you, sir. We'll go next to John Hecht with Jefferies.

謝謝你，先生。接下來我們將與傑弗里斯一起前往約翰·赫克特。

I know you've answered a lot on credit, so I apologize for one more. But your '18 and '19 charge-off levels were in the low 3% range. And I think we -- we've all kind of said that was a good environment, but a relatively normal environment. You're guiding toward a high -- relatively higher, closer to 5% charge-off rate this year despite low unemployment. I know you kind of called out the 2022 vintage is something to think about there.

我知道您已賒帳回答了很多問題，因此我再次向您致歉。但你們 '18 和 '19 的沖銷水準處於 3% 的較低範圍內。我想我們──我們都說過這是一個很好的環境，但卻是相對正常的環境。儘管失業率較低，但今年的沖銷率仍處於相對較高、接近 5% 的水平。我知道您所說的 2022 年年份是值得考慮的事情。

But maybe can you talk about the attribution of the difference in charge-off rates between that period and now? I think the kind of -- the reason for the question is just to give us a sort of level of understanding of where we are in the credit cycle and give us comfort that things will stabilize, if not improve from here?

但也許你能談談那個時期和現在之間沖銷率差異的歸因嗎？我認為，提出這個問題的原因只是為了讓我們對信貸週期所處的位置有一定程度的了解，並讓我們感到安慰，即使情況不會從現在開始改善，也會穩定下來？

Yes. happy to, John. So a few points. So we're in a significantly different environment today than we were back in 2018 and '19. So we're coming off of two years of abnormally low losses, so sub-2%. We had an incredibly high payment rate in -- going back two years ago, that is normalized.

是的。很高興，約翰。那麼幾點。因此，我們今天所處的環境與 2018 年和 19 年時截然不同。因此，我們已經擺脫了兩年來異常低的損失，低於 2%。兩年前，我們的付款率非常高，這是正常化的。

What we're seeing is that consumers had significant amount of savings. Those savings levels have been depleted. You had a spending pattern with the consumers across the Board that was reflecting kind of pent-up demand. And as savings rate came down, the consumers needed to adjust their spending patterns. Some did successfully, some did not.

我們看到的是消費者有大量儲蓄。這些儲蓄水準已經耗盡。整個消費者的消費模式反映了某種被壓抑的需求。隨著儲蓄率下降，消費者需要調整消費模式。有些成功了，有些則沒有。

And then you're also seeing inflation, if you go back 1.5 years or 2 years ago, inflation significantly outpacing wage growth. And that put certainly the lower quartile of the consumers in a significant amount of stress and that's across all sectors of the economy. So not specifically to our prime revolver segment. And on top of that, you also had in '21 and '22, two very large vintages. And so you put all those together, what naturally is going to happen is you're going to have charge-offs.

然後你也會看到通貨膨脹，如果你回到 1.5 年前或 2 年前，通貨膨脹明顯超過薪資成長。這無疑使下四分之一的消費者承受了巨大的壓力，而這種壓力遍及所有經濟部門。所以並不是專門針對我們的優質左輪手槍細分市場。除此之外，您還擁有 21 年和 22 年兩個非常大的年份。因此，將所有這些放在一起，自然會發生沖銷。

What I'll say is peak before they normalize back to levels that you're accustomed to seeing from Discover. So my sense is that given real wage growth, our consumers will end up in, frankly, a better spot in '24 and '25 than they were in '22 and '23. And our charge-off forecast and reserves reflect a view that the consumers will manage through this and delinquency formation will continue to slow. So anyway, I hope that -- hopefully, this color is helpful.

我要說的是，在它們恢復正常到您習慣於在“發現”中看到的水平之前達到峰值。所以我的感覺是，考慮到實際工資的增長，坦白說，我們的消費者最終將在 24 和 25 年內獲得比 22 和 23 年更好的地位。我們的沖銷預測和準備金反映了這樣一種觀點，即消費者將渡過難關，拖欠形成將繼續放緩。所以無論如何，我希望——希望這種顏色能有所幫助。

That's super helpful. And maybe could you give us a sense of the charge-offs by product or maybe like the -- is the mix going to be consistent with historical mix just to give us a sense from a modeling perspective?

這非常有幫助。也許您可以讓我們了解按產品分類的沖銷情況，或者也許像這樣的組合是否會與歷史組合保持一致，只是為了從建模的角度讓我們有所了解？

Yes. The only piece of information I'm going to give is in the fourth quarter, we expect student loan charge-offs to be significantly lower because we're exiting.

是的。我要提供的唯一資訊是在第四季度，我們預計學生貸款沖銷將顯著降低，因為我們正在退出。

All right. Well, I think we're going to conclude the call there. Thank you for joining us. I know there was a few of you still in queue, who we didn't get to, but feel free to reach out to the IR team. We'll be around all day and available to answer additional questions. Thanks for joining us, and have a great day.

好的。好吧，我想我們就到此結束通話。感謝您加入我們。我知道你們中有些人仍在排隊，我們沒有聯繫到他們，但請隨時聯繫 IR 團隊。我們將全天為您解答其他問題。感謝您加入我們，祝您有美好的一天。

And this does conclude today's Discover Financial Services Earnings Conference Call. You may disconnect your line at this time, and have a wonderful day.

今天的探索金融服務收益電話會議到此結束。此時您可以斷開線路，度過美好的一天。