Deutsche Bank AG (DB) 2023 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. Welcome, and thank you for joining the Deutsche Bank Q2 2023 Analyst Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) I would now like to turn the conference over to Silke Szypa, Deputy Head of Investor Relations.

女士們先生們，感謝你們的支持。歡迎並感謝您參加德意志銀行 2023 年第二季度分析師電話會議。 （操作員指示）我現在將會議交給投資者關係副主管 Silke Szypa。

Thank you for joining us for our second quarter 2023 results call. As usual, our Chief Executive Officer, Christian Sewing, will speak first; followed by our Chief Financial Officer, James von Moltke. The presentation, as always, is available to download in the Investor Relations section of our website at db.com.

感謝您參加我們的 2023 年第二季度業績電話會議。像往常一樣，我們的首席執行官 Christian Sewing 將首先發言；其次是我們的首席財務官 James von Moltke。與往常一樣，該演示文稿可在我們網站 db.com 的投資者關係部分下載。

Before we get started, let me just remind you that the presentation contains forward-looking statements, which may not develop as we currently expect. We, therefore, ask you to take notice of the precautionary warning at the end of our materials. With that, let me hand over to Christian.

在我們開始之前，讓我提醒您，該演示文稿包含前瞻性陳述，這些陳述可能不會像我們目前預期的那樣發展。因此，我們要求您注意我們材料末尾的預防性警告。接下來，讓我把時間交給克里斯蒂安。

Thank you, Silke, and a warm welcome also from my side. It's a pleasure to be discussing our second quarter and first half results with you today. These results provide a vital perspective of the progress we are making towards our objectives. For me, a few key points stand out.

謝謝你，西爾克，我也熱烈歡迎你。很高興今天與您討論我們第二季度和上半年的業績。這些結果為我們實現目標所取得的進展提供了重要的視角。對我來說，有幾個關鍵點很突出。

First, we have strong growth momentum. Revenues in the first half year were up 8% to EUR 15.1 billion, putting the upper end of our guidance range of EUR 28 billion to EUR 29 billion within reach. We also captured net inflows of EUR 28 billion across the Private Bank and Asset Management. We are reaping the benefits of a complementary and well-balanced earnings mix. We are delivering strong growth in our private bank and corporate bank franchises, and resilience in key areas of our investment bank.

一是增長動力強勁。上半年收入增長 8%，達到 151 億歐元，達到我們 280 億至 290 億歐元指導範圍的上限。我們還獲得了私人銀行和資產管理領域 280 億歐元的淨流入。我們正在從互補且均衡的盈利組合中獲益。我們的私人銀行和企業銀行業務正在實現強勁增長，投資銀行關鍵領域也具有韌性。

Second, we have proven our earnings power. We generated profit before tax of EUR 3.3 billion in the first 6 months, up 2% over last year and the highest first half since 2011 after absorbing more than EUR 700 million in nonoperating costs, including restructuring related to operational efficiencies. Excluding these nonoperating costs, pretax profit would have been EUR 4 billion, 21% higher than in the first half of 2022 on a comparable basis.

其次，我們已經證明了我們的盈利能力。在吸收了超過 7 億歐元的非運營成本（包括與運營效率相關的重組）後，我們前 6 個月實現稅前利潤 33 億歐元，比去年增長 2%，是 2011 年上半年以來的最高水平。剔除這些非運營成本，稅前利潤將為 40 億歐元，按可比口徑比 2022 年上半年增長 21%。

Our post-tax RoTE was 6.8% and would have been above 9%, excluding nonoperating costs and with bank levies apportioned equity across the year, very close to our 2025 target of above 10%. Third, our balance sheet and capital position are resilient. Our CET1 ratio has risen to 13.8%, driven by strong organic capital generation. We have sound liquidity and a solid deposit base, which we slightly increased in the second quarter.

我們的稅後 RoTE 為 6.8%，如果不包括非運營成本和全年銀行稅分配股本，本應高於 9%，非常接近我們 2025 年 10% 以上的目標。第三，我們的資產負債表和資本狀況具有彈性。在強勁的有機資本生成的推動下，我們的 CET1 比率已升至 13.8%。我們擁有良好的流動性和堅實的存款基礎，第二季度略有增加。

Fourth, we are delivering on our promise to distribute capital to shareholders. As announced yesterday evening, we have received supervisory approval to start share buybacks of up to EUR 450 million, 50% higher than last year. Together with the dividend we paid in respect of 2022, we aim to distribute more than EUR 1 billion of capital to shareholders this year. This will bring total distributions across 2022 and 2023 to around EUR 1.75 billion and of course, it is our clear aim to continue on that trajectory in 2024 as part of our EUR 8 billion distribution promise.

第四，我們兌現了向股東分配資本的承諾。正如昨天晚上所宣布的，我們已獲得監管部門批准，開始進行高達 4.5 億歐元的股票回購，比去年增加 50%。加上我們在 2022 年支付的股息，我們今年的目標是向股東分配超過 10 億歐元的資本。這將使 2022 年和 2023 年的總分配額達到約 17.5 億歐元，當然，作為我們 80 億歐元分配承諾的一部分，我們的明確目標是在 2024 年繼續沿著這一軌跡發展。

Fifth, we are accelerating the execution of our Global Hausbank strategy. We are already making good progress in driving operational efficiency, boosting capital efficiency, and outperforming our revenue growth target. Let me now discuss the franchise strengths across our businesses in the first half year on Slide 2.

第五，我們正在加快實施全球豪斯銀行戰略。我們在提高運營效率、提高資本效率和超越收入增長目標方面已經取得了良好進展。現在讓我在幻燈片 2 上討論我們上半年業務的特許經營優勢。

Starting with the Corporate Bank. We delivered 30% revenue growth with strong momentum across all business areas. With noninterest expenses up 6%, operating leverage in this business was 24% in the first half of 2023 that enabled us to deliver an RoTE of nearly 17%.

從公司銀行開始。我們的收入增長了 30%，所有業務領域均呈現強勁勢頭。由於非利息費用上漲 6%，2023 年上半年該業務的運營槓桿率為 24%，這使我們能夠實現近 17% 的 RoTE。

In the Investment Bank, we demonstrated the stability of our financing business and resilience of our FIC franchise overall after the exceptionally strong levels of the same period of last year. And we are further diversifying our Investment Bank by strengthening our O&A business both organically and inorganically. We announced the acquisition of Numis and seized opportunities to add revenue generators through selective hiring.

在投資銀行方面，繼去年同期異常強勁的水平之後，我們展示了融資業務的穩定性和 FIC 業務的整體韌性。我們正在通過有機和無機方式加強我們的 O&A 業務，進一步實現投資銀行多元化。我們宣布收購 Numis，並抓住機會通過選擇性招聘來增加收入來源。

Turning to the Private Bank. We grew revenues by 10% in the first half of 2023. These are the best 6 months revenues since the formation of the Private Bank with double-digit year-on-year growth in both the first and second quarters of the year. We also generated net inflows of EUR 13 billion in the first half year. This helped us grow assets under management by EUR 23 billion to EUR 541 billion during the first 6 months of 2023.

轉向私人銀行。 2023 年上半年，我們的收入增長了 10%。這是自私人銀行成立以來最好的 6 個月收入，今年第一季度和第二季度均實現了兩位數的同比增長。上半年我們還實現了 130 億歐元的淨流入。這幫助我們在 2023 年前 6 個月將管理資產增加了 230 億歐元，達到 5,410 億歐元。

Finally, we also grew volumes in Asset Management. We captured net asset inflows of EUR 15 billion or EUR 19 billion ex cash, driven by Passive and Alternatives both focus areas for us. That enabled us to grow assets under management by EUR 38 billion to EUR 859 billion in the first half year. And these businesses are strongly complementary, which drives sustained revenue growth as we show on Slide 3.

最後，我們的資產管理業務量也有所增長。在我們重點關注的被動投資和另類投資領域的推動下，我們實現了 150 億歐元或 190 億歐元（不含現金）的淨資產流入。這使得我們上半年管理的資產增加了 380 億歐元，達到 8,590 億歐元。這些業務具有很強的互補性，這推動了收入的持續增長，正如幻燈片 3 所示。

Over the past 2 years, we have seen steady growth in first half revenues. We see ourselves well on track to deliver at the higher end of our full year guidance of EUR 28 billion to EUR 29 billion. We achieved this despite significant shifts in the operating environment over the past 24 months. As a strong post-COVID recovery in 2021 gave way to inflationary headwinds and economic uncertainties driven by the war in Ukraine.

過去兩年，我們看到上半年收入穩步增長。我們認為自己有望實現全年指導目標的上限（280 億歐元至 290 億歐元）。儘管過去 24 個月運營環境發生了重大變化，我們還是實現了這一目標。 2021 年新冠疫情后的強勁復甦被烏克蘭戰爭引發的通脹逆風和經濟不確定性所取代。

We maintain our growth trajectory in a changing environment, thanks, in a good measure, to a complementary business portfolio. As mentioned, we delivered strong revenue growth in our Corporate and Private Banks, which took full advantage of rising interest rates and new client mandates. We expect that momentum to continue into the second half of 2023.

我們在不斷變化的環境中保持了增長軌跡，這在很大程度上要歸功於互補的業務組合。如前所述，我們的企業和私人銀行充分利用了利率上升和新客戶授權的優勢，實現了強勁的收入增長。我們預計這種勢頭將持續到 2023 年下半年。

This, together with the stable contribution from the Investment Bank's financing business, more than offset normalizing conditions in our more market-sensitive businesses. That reflects a well-balanced revenue mix in line with our Global Hausbank ambition.

再加上投資銀行融資業務的穩定貢獻，足以抵消我們對市場更為敏感的業務的正常化狀況。這反映了均衡的收入組合，符合我們的全球 Hausbank 雄心。

As we anticipate some normalization of interest rates, we aim to further complement our earnings mix. We are making investments in capital-light businesses including Origination & Advisory and Wealth Management, together with technology-enabled high-return businesses in the Corporate Bank.

由於我們預計利率會正常化，我們的目標是進一步補充我們的盈利組合。我們正在投資輕資本業務，包括發起與諮詢和財富管理，以及企業銀行中技術驅動的高回報業務。

Finally, across all business, we continue to make progress towards our sustainability targets. We added ESG financing and investment volumes of EUR 17 billion in the second quarter, bringing our cumulative total to EUR 254 billion since January 2020. And our business growth has further increased our underlying earnings power as we set out on Slide 4.

最後，在所有業務中，我們繼續在實現可持續發展目標方面取得進展。我們在第二季度增加了 170 億歐元的 ESG 融資和投資額，使自 2020 年 1 月以來的累計總額達到 2540 億歐元。正如幻燈片 4 所示，我們的業務增長進一步增強了我們的潛在盈利能力。

As I said earlier, our first half profit before tax of EUR 3.3 billion was up 2% compared to the first half of 2022. And as you can see, pre-provision profit was up 8% at EUR 4 billion after absorbing significantly higher nonoperating costs than in the prior year.

正如我之前所說，我們上半年的稅前利潤為 33 億歐元，與 2022 年上半年相比增長了 2%。正如您所看到的，在吸收了大幅增加的非經營性利潤後，撥備前利潤增長了 8%，達到 40 億歐元。成本高於上年。

Nonoperating costs were EUR 744 million, comprising litigation charges to settle mainly long-standing matters and restructuring and severance as we realize operational efficiencies. Revenues were up 8%, while adjusted costs, which excludes nonoperating items, were up only 2%, below inflation, despite continued investments in our platform.

非運營成本為 7.44 億歐元，其中包括主要解決長期懸而未決問題的訴訟費用以及我們實現運營效率所需的重組和遣散費。儘管我們繼續對我們的平台進行投資，但收入增長了 8%，而調整後的成本（不包括非運營項目）僅增長了 2%，低於通貨膨脹率。

And with prorated bank levies, adjusted operating leverage was 5%. This earnings power is reflected in the progress we are making on our key target ratios. Posttax ROTE, excluding nonoperating costs and with bank levies apportioned equally over the 4 quarters of the year, would be over 9% in the first half of 2023, while our cost/income ratio would be 67%.

考慮到按比例分配的銀行稅，調整後的運營槓桿率為 5%。這種盈利能力反映在我們在關鍵目標比率方面取得的進展。扣除非運營成本以及在一年四個季度平均分配的銀行稅後，2023 年上半年的稅後 ROTE 將超過 9%，而我們的成本/收入比率將為 67%。

In other words, we are on a clear path towards achieving our 2025 targets. Before I hand over to James, a few words on the progress we are making to accelerate delivery of our Global Hausbank strategy, as we discussed with you in April, on Slide 5.

換句話說，我們正走在實現 2025 年目標的明確道路上。在我向 James 匯報之前，請先簡單介紹一下我們在加速實施全球 Hausbank 戰略方面所取得的進展，正如我們在 4 月份在幻燈片 5 中與您討論的那樣。

We aim to accelerate delivery on 3 dimensions: operational efficiency, capital efficiency and revenue growth where we aim to outperform our original targets. We have already made progress in all of these.

我們的目標是在三個方面加速交付：運營效率、資本效率和收入增長，並超越我們最初的目標。我們已經在所有這些方面取得了進展。

Turning first to operational efficiencies. We raised our ambition for incremental efficiencies from EUR 2 billion to EUR 2.5 billion, as we said. We have already delivered more than EUR 600 million through a range of measures such as branch closures in the Private Bank, standardizing loan processing in the Corporate Bank and Investment Bank and simplifying our technology infrastructure.

首先轉向運營效率。正如我們所說，我們將提高效率的目標從 20 億歐元提高到 25 億歐元。我們已經通過一系列措施交付了超過 6 億歐元的資金，例如關閉私人銀行分行、標準化企業銀行和投資銀行的貸款處理以及簡化我們的技術基礎設施。

We anticipate EUR 300 million of savings by 2025 from the successfully completed migration of 12 million Postbank clients onto the Deutsche Bank technology platform. And we expect more than EUR 100 million from the announced redundancies in senior nonclient-facing roles as more than 80% of affected staff have either been informed or left the platform. In other words, a total of around EUR 1 billion in savings are either already achieved or are expected from measures now implemented.

我們預計，到 2025 年，1200 萬郵政銀行客戶成功遷移到德意志銀行技術平台後，將節省 3 億歐元。我們預計，宣布的非面向客戶的高級職位裁員將帶來超過 1 億歐元的損失，因為超過 80% 的受影響員工要么已被告知，要么已離開平台。換句話說，目前實施的措施已經實現或預計將節省總計約 10 億歐元的資金。

We have a series of other measures in flight. For example, streamlining our mortgage business and further branch closures in the Private Bank, reengineering more front-to-back processes in the Corporate Bank and Investment Bank, further application decommissioning and additional workforce measures. These are some examples of a wider program of initiatives underway. Based on our progress on these and realized achievements so far, we reaffirm our EUR 2.5 billion goal.

我們還有一系列其他措施正在實施。例如，簡化我們的抵押貸款業務並進一步關閉私人銀行的分支機構，重新設計企業銀行和投資銀行的更多從前到後的流程，進一步停用應用程序和採取額外的勞動力措施。這些是正在進行的更廣泛舉措計劃的一些例子。基於我們在這些方面取得的進展和迄今為止所取得的成就，我們重申 25 億歐元的目標。

In respect of capital efficiencies, as you know, our aim is to reduce risk-weighted assets by EUR 15 billion to EUR 20 billion by 2025 relative to our baseline assumptions with a modest revenue impact. In the second quarter, we accelerate securitization transactions, which delivered RWA relief of around EUR 3 billion. In addition, credit risk RWAs were reduced as part of the trade finance and lending optimization efforts. Overall, we proved our revenue strength with the business delivering revenue growth, while our FX adjusted RWAs decreased by EUR 5 billion compared to the prior year quarter.

在資本效率方面，如您所知，我們的目標是到 2025 年，相對於我們的基准假設，將風險加權資產減少 150 億歐元至 200 億歐元，並對收入影響不大。第二季度，我們加快了證券化交易，減少了約 30 億歐元的 RWA 減免。此外，作為貿易融資和貸款優化工作的一部分，信用風險風險加權資產也有所降低。總體而言，我們通過業務實現收入增長證明了我們的收入實力，而我們的外匯調整後的 RWA 與去年同期相比減少了 50 億歐元。

We have further optimization measures in preparation for the second half of 2023, including securitization of consumer finance loans and reductions in sub-hurdle lending. All this gives us confidence that we will deliver on our capital optimization goals.

我們為2023年下半年準備了進一步的優化措施，包括消費金融貸款證券化和減少次級貸款。所有這些都讓我們有信心實現資本優化目標。

Turning finally to revenue growth. We are fully on track to outperform on our revenue growth target of 3.5% to 4.5% compound annual growth against 2021 levels. On a last 12-month basis, we delivered compound annual revenue growth versus 2021 of 7.5%, well ahead of that target, with revenue growth of 8% in the first half of this year.

最後轉向收入增長。我們完全有望實現超越 2021 年 3.5% 至 4.5% 複合年增長率的收入增長目標。在過去 12 個月的基礎上，我們實現了 2021 年復合年收入增長 7.5%，遠遠超出了目標，今年上半年收入增長了 8%。

We expect the interest rate environment to continue to drive sustainable performance in our stable businesses. We anticipate added momentum from our organic and inorganic investments including the Numis acquisition or the new partnership with Lufthansa and Miles & More, and from hiring of some 50 senior O&A bankers. This enables us to take advantage of an expected pickup in corporate finance activity, we are already seeing signs of this in our backlog. We have also hired around 30 wealth managers. And we expect the growth in our assets under management and net asset inflows to drive fee income in future quarters.

我們預計利率環境將繼續推動我們穩定業務的可持續業績。我們預計，我們的有機和無機投資（包括收購 Numis 或與漢莎航空和 Miles & More 建立新的合作夥伴關係）以及聘用約 50 名高級 O&A 銀行家將帶來更多動力。這使我們能夠利用企業融資活動的預期回升，我們已經在積壓的訂單中看到了這一跡象。我們還聘請了約 30 名財富經理。我們預計管理資產的增​​長和淨資產流入將推動未來幾個季度的費用收入。

To sum up, we are delivering revenue and business growth of a strong franchise. Our well-balanced complementary business mix enables us to drive continued revenue momentum. We are increasing our earnings power year-by-year, and we see a clear path to achieving our 2025 profitability targets, among others, an RoTE of larger than 10% in 2025. And we are delivering on 2 key promises: distributing EUR 8 billion to shareholders and accelerating execution of our global Hausbank strategy. With that, let me hand over to James.

總而言之，我們正在實現強大的特許經營收入和業務增長。我們均衡互補的業務組合使我們能夠推動持續的收入增長勢頭。我們正在逐年提高盈利能力，我們看到了實現 2025 年盈利目標的明確途徑，其中包括 2025 年 RoTE 超過 10%。我們正在兌現 2 個關鍵承諾：分配 8 歐元億美元給股東並加速執行我們的全球 Hausbank 戰略。接下來，讓我把任務交給詹姆斯。

Thank you, Christian. Let me start with a few key performance indicators on Slide 7 and place them in the context of our 2025 targets. Christian outlined the strong revenue momentum in our well-balanced business mix which resulted in revenue growth of well above 7% on a compound basis for the last 12 months relative to 2021. This performance puts us well on track to deliver revenue growth above our 2025 target.

謝謝你，克里斯蒂安。讓我從幻燈片 7 上的一些關鍵績效指標開始，並將它們置於我們 2025 年目標的背景下。 Christian 概述了我們均衡的業務組合中強勁的收入勢頭，這使得過去 12 個月的收入增長遠高於 7%（相對於 2021 年）。這一業績使我們有望實現高於 2025 年收入增長的目標目標。

The strong revenue growth, combined with ongoing cost discipline led to a 2 percentage point improvement in the cost/income ratio to 73% in the first 6 months compared to 2022, despite significantly higher nonoperating expenses in the second quarter, which we would not expect to repeat in the same magnitude in coming periods.

強勁的收入增長，加上持續的成本控制，導致前 6 個月的成本/收入比比 2022 年提高了 2 個百分點，達到 73%，儘管第二季度的營業外支出大幅增加，這是我們預計不到的在接下來的時期以相同的幅度重複。

Our capital position has remained strong and our CET1 ratio of 13.8% positions us well for capital distributions, investments and the implementation of regulatory changes. Our liquidity metrics remained strong. The LCR was 137%, above our target of around 130%. And in the second quarter, the net stable funding ratio was 119%. In short, our performance in the period reaffirms our confidence in reaching our 2025 targets.

我們的資本狀況依然強勁，13.8% 的 CET1 比率使我們在資本分配、投資和監管變革的實施方面處於有利地位。我們的流動性指標仍然強勁。 LCR 為 137%，高於我們 130% 左右的目標。而第二季度，淨穩定資金比例為119%。簡而言之，我們這一時期的表現再次堅定了我們實現 2025 年目標的信心。

With that, let me turn to the second quarter highlights on Slide 8. Group revenues were EUR 7.4 billion, up 11% on the second quarter of 2022. Noninterest expenses were EUR 5.6 billion, up 15% year-on-year. The increase was largely driven by the EUR 655 million of nonoperating expenses in the quarter compared to EUR 102 million in the prior year period.

接下來，讓我轉向幻燈片 8 上的第二季度亮點。集團收入為 74 億歐元，較 2022 年第二季度增長 11%。非利息支出為 56 億歐元，同比增長 15%。這一增長主要是由於本季度營業外支出為 6.55 億歐元，而上年同期為 1.02 億歐元。

Nonoperating expenses this quarter included EUR 260 million of restructuring and severance provisions to accelerate the execution of our Global Hausbank strategy primarily through a reduction in nonclient-facing roles and optimization of our mortgage platform. To settle a number of long-standing litigation matters, we incurred litigation charges of EUR 395 million, as in each case, the outcome was higher than expected.

本季度的非運營支出包括 2.6 億歐元的重組和遣散費，主要通過減少非面向客戶的角色和優化我們的抵押貸款平台來加速我們的全球 Hausbank 戰略的執行。為了解決一些長期存在的訴訟問題，我們產生了 3.95 億歐元的訴訟費用，每個案件的結果都高於預期。

Adjusted costs increased year-on-year, which I will discuss in more detail shortly. Provision for credit losses was EUR 401 million or 33 basis points of average loans. We generated a profit before tax of EUR 1.4 billion, down 9% year-on-year mainly due to the higher nonoperating items.

調整後成本同比增加，我將很快對此進行更詳細的討論。信貸損失準備金為 4.01 億歐元，相當於平均貸款的 33 個基點。我們實現稅前利潤 14 億歐元，同比下降 9%，主要是由於非經營性項目增加。

Net profit of EUR 900 million was also impacted by the higher effective tax rate, principally reflecting the nondeductibility of certain litigation charges. Our cost/income ratio was just under 76% and our post-tax return on average tangible shareholders' equity was 5.4% in the quarter.

9億歐元的淨利潤也受到有效稅率提高的影響，主要反映了某些訴訟費用的不可扣除性。本季度我們的成本/收入比略低於 76%，平均有形股東權益稅後回報率為 5.4%。

Excluding the aforementioned nonoperating expenses, the cost income ratio would have been 67% and post-tax return on average tangible shareholders' equity close to 9%. Diluted earnings per share was EUR 0.19 in the second quarter and tangible book value per share was EUR 26.95, up 5% year-on-year.

剔除上述營業外支出，成本收入率為67%，平均有形股東權益稅後回報率接近9%。第二季度稀釋每股收益為0.19歐元，每股有形賬面價值為26.95歐元，同比增長5%。

Let me now turn to some of the drivers of these results, starting with interest rate developments on Slide 9. Net interest margin in the Private Bank and Corporate Bank remained strong in the second quarter as deposit betas remained below our model assumptions in both divisions. We expect margins to begin to decline from this point but expect that the tailwind from interest rates for 2023 will be larger than the EUR 900 million we had guided at the start of the year.

現在讓我談談這些結果的一些驅動因素，從幻燈片 9 上的利率發展開始。私人銀行和企業銀行的淨息差在第二季度仍然強勁，因為這兩個部門的存款貝塔值仍然低於我們的模型假設。我們預計利潤率將從此時開始下降，但預計 2023 年利率的推動力將大於我們年初指導的 9 億歐元。

Net interest margin at the group level increased to 1.5% as the accounting effects we noted in the first quarter partially reversed. As we noted at the time, these effects are held in C&O and are offset in noninterest revenues in the businesses and do not affect the group’s total revenues.

由於我們在第一季度注意到的會計影響部分逆轉，集團層面的淨息差上升至 1.5%。正如我們當時指出的那樣，這些影響由 C&O 承擔，並在業務的非利息收入中抵消，並且不會影響集團的總收入。

Average interest-earning assets declined compared to the first quarter, driven by lower average cash balances in the second quarter. With that, let's turn to adjusted costs on Slide 10. Adjusted costs, excluding bank levies, were EUR 4.9 billion, and this is consistent with our guidance range of EUR 1.6 billion to EUR 1.65 billion per month. The increase of 4% was driven by inflationary pressures, ongoing investments and business growth which are partially offset by our continued cost reduction efforts.

由於第二季度平均現金餘額下降，平均生息資產較第一季度下降。接下來，我們來看看幻燈片 10 上的調整後成本。調整後成本（不包括銀行稅）為 49 億歐元，這與我們每月 16 億歐元至 16.5 億歐元的指導範圍一致。 4% 的增長是由通脹壓力、持續投資和業務增長推動的，但我們持續降低成本的努力部分抵消了這一增長。

Compensation and benefits and information technology costs were broadly flat to the prior year quarter. Higher professional service costs were driven by business consulting and legal fees. The variance in other costs includes higher expenses for banking services and outsourced operations as well as movements in operational taxes. We also saw a normalization of marketing spend and talent recruitment to foster our growth trajectory.

薪酬和福利以及信息技術成本與去年同期基本持平。業務諮詢和法律費用推動了專業服務成本的上升。其他成本的差異包括銀行服務和外包業務費用的增加以及營業稅的變動。我們還看到營銷支出和人才招聘的正常化，以促進我們的增長軌跡。

Let's now turn to provision for credit losses on Slide 11. Provision for credit losses in the second quarter was EUR 401 million, equivalent to 33 basis points of average loans, slightly up compared to the previous quarter, reflecting the broader impact of the macro environment. Stages 1 and 2 provisions were EUR 63 million with a moderate sequential increase driven by portfolio and rating movements, especially in the investment bank.

現在讓我們轉向幻燈片 11 上的信貸損失撥備。第二季度信貸損失撥備為 4.01 億歐元，相當於平均貸款 33 個基點，較上一季度略有上升，反映了宏觀環境的更廣泛影響。第一階段和第二階段的準備金為 6,300 萬歐元，在投資組合和評級變動（尤其是投資銀行）的推動下，略有連續增長。

Stage 3 provisions of EUR 338 million were broadly spread across our businesses and slightly lower compared to the previous quarter partly reflecting a nonrecurrence of provisions relating to a small number of idiosyncratic events in the International Private Bank. Overall, there are currently no signs of a persistent deterioration in the environment. However, we observed softening in some German mid-cap sectors, including automotive and continued weakness in commercial real estate.

3.38 億歐元的第三階段撥備廣泛分佈在我們的業務中，與上一季度相比略有下降，部分原因是與國際私人銀行少數特殊事件相關的撥備不再重複發生。總體而言，目前沒有環境持續惡化的跡象。然而，我們觀察到德國一些中型股行業的疲軟，包括汽車業和商業房地產的持續疲軟。

For the full year, we continue to expect provisions to land within our guidance range of 25 to 30 basis points of average loans, albeit at the upper end of the range. Looking at the first 6 months, provisions were in line with our expectations. If we include the nonrecurring events in the International Private Bank we had in the first quarter. And for the second half of the year, we expect the usual quarterly run rate of about EUR 150 million in the private bank, while provisions in the Corporate Bank and Investment Bank are expected to overall remain in line with the first half of the year taken together.

就全年而言，我們繼續預計撥備將落在平均貸款 25 至 30 個基點的指導範圍內，儘管處於該範圍的上限。從前 6 個月來看，撥備符合我們的預期。如果我們將第一季度國際私人銀行的非經常性事件包括在內。下半年，我們預計私人銀行的季度運營率通常約為 1.5 億歐元，而企業銀行和投資銀行的撥備預計總體與上半年保持一致一起。

Before we move to performance in our businesses, let me turn to capital on Slide 17. Our common equity Tier 1 ratio was 13.8% at the end of the second quarter, 15 basis points above the prior period. Organic capital generation contributed 16 basis points to the increase reflecting our strong net income, which was offset mainly by higher regulatory deductions for common equity dividend and AT1 coupons.

在我們討論業務績效之前，讓我先談談幻燈片 17 上的資本。第二季度末，我們的普通股一級資本比率為 13.8%，比上一季度高出 15 個基點。有機資本生成為增長貢獻了 16 個基點，反映出我們強勁的淨利潤，但這主要被普通股股息和 AT1 息票的監管扣除額增加所抵消。

Risk-weighted assets remained broadly flat this quarter. In the second half of the year, we expect approximately 70 basis points of headwinds from various items we have discussed with you before, notably impacts from model and methodology changes, share buybacks and the Numis acquisition. And our leverage ratio was 4.7% at the end of the second quarter, 4 basis points up versus the prior quarter based on our strong organic capital generation.

本季度風險加權資產基本持平。在今年下半年，我們預計我們之前與您討論過的各種項目將帶來大約 70 個基點的阻力，特別是模型和方法變化、股票回購和 Numis 收購的影響。由於我們強勁的有機資本生成能力，第二季度末我們的槓桿率為 4.7%，比上一季度上升 4 個基點。

Let's now turn to performance in our businesses, starting with the Corporate Bank on Slide 14. Corporate Bank revenues in the second quarter were over EUR 1.9 billion, 25% higher year-on-year driven by an improved interest rate environment and continued pricing discipline, with growth across all client segments.

現在讓我們來談談我們的業務表現，從幻燈片 14 上的企業銀行開始。第二季度企業銀行收入超過 19 億歐元，同比增長 25%，這得益於利率環境改善和持續的定價紀律，所有客戶群均實現增長。

Revenues remained close to the prior quarter due to continued lagging rate pass-through, fee growth in Institutional Client Services and stabilized deposit volumes. As we highlighted at our first quarter results, we do expect a normalization of our interest revenues in the second half of the year as client pass-through further accelerates.

由於利率傳導持續滯後、機構客戶服務費用增長以及存款量穩定，收入仍接近上一季度。正如我們在第一季度業績中強調的那樣，隨著客戶傳遞進一步加速，我們預計下半年利息收入將正常化。

Deposits were EUR 271 billion, essentially flat compared to the prior year quarter and to the first quarter of 2023 as deposit levels stabilized despite increased interest rate competition and strong pricing discipline. Loan volume in the corporate bank was EUR 116 billion, down by EUR 13 billion compared to the prior year quarter and EUR 5 billion compared to the previous quarter.

存款為 2,710 億歐元，與上年同期和 2023 年第一季度相比基本持平，儘管利率競爭加劇且定價紀律嚴格，但存款水平保持穩定。企業銀行貸款額為 1,160 億歐元，較上年同期減少 130 億歐元，較上季度減少 50 億歐元。

This reduction reflected overall lower demand and continued selective balance sheet deployment in our trade finance and lending business as well as the negative impact from FX movements. We remain conservative in our underwriting at this point in the cycle and continue to apply strict lending standards in order to maintain the high quality of our loan portfolio.

這一減少反映出整體需求下降、我們的貿易融資和貸款業務持續選擇性資產負債表配置以及外匯波動的負面影響。目前，我們在承保方面保持保守，並繼續採用嚴格的貸款標準，以保持貸款組合的高質量。

Provision for credit losses increased in the quarter, reflecting a weakening in certain subsectors. Noninterest expenses were EUR 1.2 billion, an increase of 10% year-on-year driven by increased nonoperating costs predominantly litigation provisions, whereas adjusted costs remained stable. Profit before tax was EUR 670 million in the quarter, up by 52% year-on-year. The cost/income ratio improved to 59% and post-tax return on tangible equity was 14.8% despite higher nonrecurring costs.

本季度信貸損失撥備有所增加，反映出某些子行業的疲軟。非利息支出為 12 億歐元，同比增長 10%，原因是非運營成本（主要是訴訟準備金）增加，而調整後成本保持穩定。該季度稅前利潤為6.7億歐元，同比增長52%。儘管非經常性成本較高，但成本/收入比提高至 59%，有形資產稅後回報率為 14.8%。

I'll now return to the Investment Bank on Slide 15. Revenues for the second quarter were 11% lower year-on-year. FIC Sales & Trading decreased by 10% against what was an exceptional prior year quarter and we're pleased with the underlying performance, which remained strong, with growth in structured activity, helping to reduce the impact from a lower volatility environment.

現在我將回到幻燈片 15 上的投資銀行。第二季度的收入同比下降 11%。 FIC 銷售和交易與去年同期相比下降了 10%，我們對基本業績感到滿意，該業績依然強勁，結構性活動有所增長，有助於減少波動性較低的環境的影響。

Financing revenues were higher year-on-year, reflecting the proven stability of the franchise with net interest margin remaining robust and solid pipeline execution. Credit Trading revenues were significantly higher, driven by improvements in the flow business and strong performance in distressed. Rates and foreign exchange revenues were significantly lower compared to a very strong prior year quarter and reflected a more normalized environment than the prior year period.

融資收入同比增長，反映出特許經營業已證明的穩定性，淨息差保持強勁且渠道執行穩健。受流量業務改善和不良資產表現強勁的推動，信貸交易收入顯著增加。與去年同期非常強勁的季度相比，利率和外匯收入顯著降低，反映出比去年同期更加正常化的環境。

Emerging Markets revenues were lower as expected with the prior year seeing heightened market activity linked to Russia's invasion of Ukraine and outperformance in the Asia region.

新興市場收入低於預期，上年因俄羅斯入侵烏克蘭而導致市場活動加劇以及亞洲地區表現出色。

Moving to Origination & Advisory. Revenues were up 25%, driven by the nonrecurrence of material leverage lending markdowns in the prior year. Excluding these markdowns, the business underperformed in a challenging market with the global fee pool down approximately 20% year-on-year. Debt origination revenues were significantly higher, benefiting from the nonrepeat of the aforementioned markdowns, though performance also reflected a partial year-on-year recovery in the LDCM market share.

轉向發起和諮詢。由於去年不再發生重大槓桿貸款降價，收入增長了 25%。排除這些降價，該業務在充滿挑戰的市場中表現不佳，全球費用池同比下降約 20%。得益於上述降價的不再重複，債務發行收入顯著提高，儘管業績也反映出 LDCM 市場份額的部分同比復甦。

Investment Grade revenues were slightly down year-on-year, but reflected market share gains in a lower fee pool environment. Advisory revenues were significantly lower, reflecting both lower fee pool and relative underperformance. With indications that deal activity is starting to recover, we expect our investments in the Investment Bank to result in a significant rebound in O&A performance into 2024.

投資級收入同比略有下降，但反映出在較低費用池環境下市場份額的增長。諮詢收入大幅下降，反映出費用池較低和業績相對不佳。有跡象表明交易活動開始復蘇，我們預計我們對投資銀行的投資將導致 2024 年 O&A 業績大幅反彈。

Noninterest expenses and adjusted costs increased versus the prior year, reflecting investments in both our controls and the business to support future revenue growth. Loan balances were slightly higher year-on-year, driven by higher origination across FIC with quarter-on-quarter balances essentially flat. Provision for credit losses was EUR 141 million or 54 basis points of average loans. The increase versus the prior year was driven by higher Stage 1 and 2 provisions due to rating migrations and portfolio movements, combined with higher Stage 3 impairments primarily in the commercial real estate sector.

非利息支出和調整後成本較上一年有所增加，反映出我們為支持未來收入增長而對控制和業務進行的投資。貸款餘額同比略有增加，原因是 FIC 的發放量增加，但環比餘額基本持平。信貸損失準備金為 1.41 億歐元，相當於平均貸款的 54 個基點。與上一年相比，這一增長是由於評級遷移和投資組合變動導致第一階段和第二階段撥備增加，以及主要在商業房地產領域的第三階段減值增加所致。

Turning to the Private Bank on Slide 16. Reported revenues were EUR 2.4 billion in the quarter, up 11% year-on-year driven by higher deposit revenues. Revenues in the Private Bank Germany significantly increased by 16%, mainly due to higher deposit revenues, which more than compensated for changes in contractual and regulatory conditions affecting fee income. In addition, the prior year quarter benefited from higher valuation impacts.

轉向幻燈片 16 上的私人銀行。報告的本季度收入為 24 億歐元，由於存款收入增加，同比增長 11%。德國私人銀行的收入顯著增長了 16%，主要是由於存款收入增加，這足以彌補影響費用收入的合同和監管條件的變化。此外，去年同期還受益於較高的估值影響。

In the International Private Bank, revenues were up 4% or 6% if adjusted for foregone revenues from the sale of the Financial Advisory business in Italy. Growth was driven by deposit products, which also were the primary driver of the 11% growth in premium banking.

如果對出售意大利財務諮詢業務而放棄的收入進行調整，國際私人銀行的收入將增長 4% 或 6%。增長是由存款產品推動的，這也是高端銀行業務增長 11% 的主要推動力。

In Wealth Management & Bank for Entrepreneurs, revenues were up 1% or 4% and if adjusted for the aforementioned foregone revenues. Improved performance mainly in Europe was partially offset by continued slower business momentum in APAC.

如果對上述放棄的收入進行調整，財富管理和企業家銀行的收入將增長 1% 或 4%。主要在歐洲的業績改善被亞太地區持續放緩的業務勢頭部分抵消。

Turning to costs. Noninterest expenses were up 26%, mainly attributable to an increase in nonoperating expenses, reflecting restructuring and severance provisions related to strategy execution as well as provisions for individual litigation cases whereas the prior year quarter benefited from net provision releases. Adjusted costs increased by 5%, mainly reflecting investments in infrastructure control improvements and strategic initiatives. Inflation impacts were largely mitigated by efficiency initiatives. Profits and key ratios in the quarter were impacted by a total of EUR 254 million of nonoperating expenses.

轉向成本。非利息支出增長 26%，主要是由於非營業支出增加，反映了與戰略執行相關的重組和遣散費撥備以及個人訴訟案件的撥備，而去年同期則受益於淨撥備釋放。調整後成本增加了5%，主要反映了對基礎設施控制改進和戰略舉措的投資。效率舉措很大程度上緩解了通貨膨脹的影響。本季度的利潤和關鍵比率受到總計 2.54 億歐元的非運營費用的影響。

Provisions for credit losses was EUR 147 million or 22 basis points of average loans in the quarter, which reflects the continued stability of our high-quality loan book, especially in the retail businesses and continued risk discipline. Provision for credit losses in the prior year quarter benefited from releases of credit loss allowances following sales of nonperforming loans.

信貸損失準備金為 1.47 億歐元，相當於本季度平均貸款的 22 個基點，這反映了我們高質量貸款賬簿（尤其是零售業務）的持續穩定性以及持續的風險紀律。去年同期的信用損失準備金得益於出售不良貸款後釋放的信用損失準備金。

The significant sequential decline reflects a nonrecurrence of certain idiosyncratic events in the International Private Bank in the first quarter. We saw solid net inflows in assets under management of EUR 7 billion in the quarter, with EUR 4 billion in investment products and EUR 3 billion in AUM deposits.

環比大幅下降反映出國際私人銀行第一季度沒有再發生某些特殊事件。本季度管理資產淨流入穩定，達 70 億歐元，其中投資產品 40 億歐元，管理資產存款 30 億歐元。

Let me continue with Asset Management on Slide 17. As you will have seen in their report, DWS reported stable revenues despite the effect of weaker markets in 2022 and slightly lower adjusted profit before tax compared to the prior year. My usual reminder, the Asset Management segment includes certain items that are not part of the DWS stand-alone financials.

讓我繼續幻燈片 17 上的資產管理。正如您在報告中看到的那樣，儘管 2022 年受到市場疲軟的影響，並且調整後稅前利潤與上一年相比略有下降，但 DWS 報告收入穩定。我通常會提醒您，資產管理部門包括某些不屬於 DWS 獨立財務的項目。

Assets under management increased to EUR 859 billion in the quarter, reflecting EUR 11 billion of market appreciation and EUR 9 billion of net inflows. Net inflows were primarily in Passive and Alternatives notably in real estate. Flows in cash products once again have been significant and very volatile throughout the quarter. ending with net outflows of EUR 1 billion.

本季度管理資產增加至 8590 億歐元，反映出 110 億歐元的市場升值和 90 億歐元的淨流入。淨流入主要流向被動投資和另類投資，尤其是房地產。現金產品的流動在整個季度再次變得巨大且波動很大。最終淨流出 10 億歐元。

Revenues declined by 6% versus the prior year. This was predominantly driven by higher funding charges in the segment and a decline in management fees from a reduction in average assets under management. Performance and transaction fees were significantly higher year-on-year, driven by the alternatives business.

收入較上年下降 6%。這主要是由於該部門的融資費用增加以及平均管理資產減少導致的管理費下降所致。在另類業務的推動下，業績和交易費用同比大幅上漲。

Other revenues declined due to higher funding charges and lower mark-to-market valuations of co-investments partly offset by net interest income on excess cash from rising interest rates. Noninterest expenses were slightly higher with adjusted costs remaining essentially flat. Compensation costs were slightly higher, driven by variable retention costs and hiring to support transformation and business growth.

其他收入下降的原因是融資費用增加和共同投資的按市價計價估值降低，但部分被利率上升帶來的過剩現金淨利息收入所抵消。非利息支出略有上升，調整後成本基本持平。受可變保留成本和支持轉型和業務增長的招聘的推動，薪酬成本略有上升。

General and administrative costs were also slightly higher, reflecting higher banking services costs and transformation implementation, mostly offset by a decline in group support costs. Nonoperating costs are significantly higher than the prior year from an increase in litigation costs. Profit before tax of EUR 103 million in the quarter was down 34% compared to the prior year. The cost/income ratio for the quarter was 76% and return on tangible equity was 12%.

一般和行政成本也略有上升，反映出銀行服務成本和轉型實施的增加，但大部分被集團支持成本的下降所抵消。由於訴訟費用增加，非營業成本顯著高於上年。該季度稅前利潤為 1.03 億歐元，較上年同期下降 34%。該季度的成本/收入比為 76%，有形資產回報率為 12%。

Moving to Corporate & Other on Slide 18. Corporate & Other reported a pretax loss of EUR 115 million this quarter a substantial improvement versus the pretax loss of EUR 500 million in the second quarter of 2022 on the same basis. This year-on-year improvement was driven to a large part by valuation and timing differences which were positive EUR 252 million this quarter. As a reminder, valuation and timing differences arise on derivatives used to hedge the economic risk of the group's balance sheet. These are accounting impacts and the current period gains partially reflect reversals of prior period valuation losses, as the underlying instruments approach maturity.

轉向幻燈片 18 上的企業及其他。企業及其他報告本季度稅前虧損為 1.15 億歐元，與 2022 年第二季度相同基礎上的稅前虧損 5 億歐元相比，有了大幅改善。這一同比改善在很大程度上是由估值和時間差異推動的，本季度估值和時間差異為 2.52 億歐元。需要提醒的是，用於對沖集團資產負債表經濟風險的衍生品會出現估值和時間差異。這些是會計影響，當基礎工具接近到期時，本期收益部分反映了前期估值損失的逆轉。

The pretax loss associated with our legacy portfolios was EUR 170 million versus negative EUR 120 million in the prior year quarter, driven by additional litigation provisions relating to Polish foreign currency mortgages. Expenses associated with shareholder activities as defined in the OECD Transfer Pricing guidelines were EUR 138 million in this quarter compared to EUR 120 million in the prior year quarter. Funding and liquidity impacts were negative EUR 10 million in the current quarter compared to negative EUR 126 million in the prior year quarter.

由於與波蘭外幣抵押貸款相關的額外訴訟條款，與我們的遺留投資組合相關的稅前損失為 1.7 億歐元，而去年同期為負 1.2 億歐元。根據經合組織轉讓定價指南的定義，本季度與股東活動相關的費用為 1.38 億歐元，而去年同期為 1.2 億歐元。本季度融資和流動性影響為負 1,000 萬歐元，而去年同期為負 1.26 億歐元。

The reversal of noncontrolling interests in the operating businesses, primarily from DWS was positive EUR 51 million, broadly flat year-on-year. Other impacts reported in the segment aggregated to negative EUR 100 million. Risk-weighted assets stood at EUR 41 billion at the end of the second quarter down EUR 2 billion since the first quarter of 2023. The RWA figure includes EUR 19 billion of operational risk RWA.

運營業務中非控股權益的逆轉（主要來自 DWS）為正 5,100 萬歐元，與去年同期基本持平。該部門報告的其他影響總計為負 1 億歐元。截至第二季度末，風險加權資產為 410 億歐元，自 2023 年第一季度以來減少了 20 億歐元。RWA 數據包括 190 億歐元的操作風險 RWA。

Turning to the group outlook for the full year on Slide 19. With first half revenues above EUR 15 billion, we believe that revenues above the midpoint of our guidance range of EUR 28 billion to EUR 29 billion for the full year 2023 are achievable. We continue to execute on our agenda to foster the bank's growth ambitions and to improve the bank's structural efficiency.

轉向幻燈片 19 上的集團全年展望。上半年收入超過 150 億歐元，我們相信 2023 年全年收入可以實現高於我們指導範圍 280 億至 290 億歐元的中點。我們繼續執行我們的議程，以促進銀行的增長目標並提高銀行的結構效率。

As Christian outlined, we have a number of measures underway. Adjusted costs for the full year 2023 are still expected to be essentially flat compared to 2022, benefiting from strict cost management, lower Single Resolution Fund charges for the current year as well as a potential restitution payment from a national resolution fund. We now expect noninterest expenses to be slightly higher compared to 2022; this reflects higher-than-anticipated litigation expenses we had in the second quarter and an impact in relation to the Numis transaction, which we expect to close in the fourth quarter.

正如克里斯蒂安所概述的，我們正在採取一些措施。受益於嚴格的成本管理、當年較低的單一處置基金費用以及國家處置基金的潛在賠償金，預計 2023 年全年調整後成本仍將基本與 2022 年持平。我們現在預計非利息支出將比 2022 年略高；這反映出我們第二季度的訴訟費用高於預期，以及與 Numis 交易相關的影響，我們預計該交易將在第四季度完成。

Provision for credit losses is now expected at the upper end of our guidance range of 25 to 30 basis points of average loans reflecting the current macro backdrop and lower loan balances than initially anticipated. Our capital guidance is unchanged. Our second quarter CET1 ratio of 13.8% and allows us to absorb roughly 70 basis points of headwinds in the second half, reflecting the impacts from model changes, share buybacks and the Numis acquisition.

目前預計信貸損失撥備處於我們指導範圍的上限，即平均貸款的 25 至 30 個基點，反映了當前的宏觀背景，且貸款餘額低於最初預期。我們的資本指導不變。我們第二季度的 CET1 比率為 13.8%，使我們能夠在下半年吸收大約 70 個基點的逆風，反映了模型變化、股票回購和 Numis 收購的影響。

We remain committed to our capital objectives, most importantly, the distribution of EUR 8 billion to shareholders in respect of the financial year 2021 to 2025 and moving up to a 50% payout ratio. And as Christian said, part of this plan is the next phase of our share buyback, which will commence next month and will be finalized in the second half of this year.

我們仍然致力於我們的資本目標，最重要的是，在 2021 至 2025 財年向股東分配 80 億歐元，並將派息率提高到 50%。正如克里斯蒂安所說，該計劃的一部分是我們下一階段的股票回購，該回購將於下個月開始，並將在今年下半年完成。

So the performance and the growth opportunities we ceased in the first half of this year strengthen our confidence in the path towards our 2025 targets and our global house bank strategy. With that, let me hand back to Silke, and we look forward to your questions.

因此，我們今年上半年停止的業績和增長機會增強了我們對實現 2025 年目標和全球房屋銀行戰略的信心。接下來，讓我回到西爾克，我們期待您的提問。

Thank you. Emma, we are ready to take the first question.

謝謝。艾瑪，我們準備好回答第一個問題。

(Operator Instructions) First question is from the line of Anke Reingen with RBC.

（操作員說明）第一個問題來自 RBC 的 Anke Reingen 線路。

If you can just start with talking about the revenue outlook. Maybe firstly, big picture. I mean, the macro has been pretty weak, growth is slowing, confidence is low, house prices are declining. In light of this environment, where do you actually see opportunities for your revenue growth, especially in the more stable businesses? And where do you see the risks?

您可以先談談收入前景嗎？也許首先，大局觀。我的意思是，宏觀經濟一直相當疲軟，增長正在放緩，信心低落，房價正在下跌。在這種環境下，您實際上在哪裡看到了收入增長的機會，特別是在更穩定的業務中？您認為風險在哪裡？

And then secondly, more concrete in terms of the numbers, the revenue guidance went up for the year but still implies more like EUR 6.8 billion to EUR 7 billion per quarter in the second half. And there's obviously seasonality and you overearned in the first half. So how should we think about the jump off from the second half into 2024. Can you actually grow revenues in '24 versus '23?

其次，更具體的數字是，今年的收入指引有所上升，但仍意味著下半年每季度收入將達到 68 億至 70 億歐元。顯然存在季節性因素，上半年你賺得超額。那麼，我們應該如何看待從下半年到 2024 年的跳躍。與 23 年相比，24 年的收入真的能增長嗎？

Anke, thank you very much for your question. Let me start, and James will potentially add. Look, first of all, on your description on the macro side, I agree, but I think it completely validates that what we have shared with you in the previous calls. We always said that 2023 will be based on a very weak economy on a kind of a no-growth scenario I even expect for the end of '23 technical or a very mild recession in Germany, potentially also in the U.S. And that was always an exactly the foundation of our plan. And hence, Anke, there is no negative surprise in the macroeconomic outlook when it comes to our plan or to the underlying drivers, be it revenues, be it also risk costs. And that is also, I think, important that from a risk point of view, our credit forecast was always built exactly on that description of the market you just shared with us. And hence, we also don't see any downside to our credit forecast, which James just again reemphasized in his prepared remarks.

安克，非常感謝你的提問。讓我開始吧，詹姆斯可能會補充。首先，我同意你對宏觀方面的描述，但我認為這完全驗證了我們在之前的電話會議中與你分享的內容。我們總是說，2023 年將基於一種非常疲弱的經濟，我什至預計 23 年技術末期將出現一種無增長的情況，或者德國（也可能是美國）出現非常溫和的衰退。這正是我們計劃的基礎。因此，安克，當談到我們的計劃或潛在驅動因素時，無論是收入還是風險成本，宏觀經濟前景並不令人意外。我認為，從風險的角度來看，我們的信用預測始終完全基於您剛剛與我們分享的市場描述，這一點也很重要。因此，我們也沒有看到我們的信用預測有任何負面影響，詹姆斯在他準備好的講話中再次強調了這一點。

When it comes to where do we see growth opportunities, in particular for the stable businesses in such an environment, look, I really do believe that the Global Hausbank strategy, in particular in the stable business is exactly the right answer. And that's what we feel kind of on a day-to-day basis with our clients. Of course, we are benefiting from the NII and get back to that in a second. But if you think about what kind of discussions mandates we win with our corporate banking clients around the world when it comes to reorganizing their networks, reorganizing their supply chains, making sure that we obviously then follow up with the cash management systems around the world as an answer to their reorganized network, then this brings us a lot of new mandates, which honestly is even above our expectations. Of course, in this regard, also the most recent upgrades from rating agencies again help us because whenever we get this, obviously, it helps to increase revenues and new clients onboarding.

當談到我們在哪裡看到增長機會時，特別是在這種環境下的穩定業務，我真的相信 Global Hausbank 戰略，特別是在穩定業務方面，正是正確的答案。這就是我們在與客戶的日常交流中所感受到的。當然，我們正在從 NII 中受益，稍後再回到這一點。但如果你想一想，在重組網絡、供應鏈時，我們需要與世界各地的企業銀行客戶進行什麼樣的討論，確保我們能夠跟進世界各地的現金管理系統一個對他們重組網絡的答案，那麼這給我們帶來了很多新的任務，老實說，這甚至超出了我們的預期。當然，在這方面，評級機構最近的升級也再次幫助了我們，因為每當我們獲得這一升級時，顯然，它都有助於增加收入和新客戶的加入。

In the Private Bank, there is a lot of ask, and you see that also in our development in the assets under management on the investment side. I think there, we are seeing not only in Germany, but if I look in particular in other European countries, in Spain and Italy, we are seen as the go-to bank when it comes to investment advice. And this is -- if you talk to the clients in this scenario where inflation is still above 5% where they think about how they secure their pensions. Now with having Postbank fully integrated on our Deutsche Bank system, these people think about how to secure the pensions, and that is obviously our chance and opportunity. And that's what we see in the daily business on the investment business.

在私人銀行，有很多要求，你也可以在我們投資管理資產的發展中看到這一點。我認為，我們不僅在德國看到，而且如果我特別關注其他歐洲國家，例如西班牙和意大利，我們被視為投資建議方面的首選銀行。如果你在通貨膨脹率仍高於 5% 的情況下與客戶交談，他們就會考慮如何保障養老金。現在，隨著郵政銀行完全融入我們的德意志銀行系統，這些人會考慮如何確保養老金，這顯然是我們的機會。這就是我們在日常投資業務中看到的情況。

And in the IB, I know that a lot of people always think this is the more volatile business, but I think we shouldn't underestimate also in these days the stability of the financing business in the IB again, shown in Q2, also year-over-year. I think the future investments we are doing in the O&A business, they will pay off because we can see that actually the trough in this business has been passed. And we see from the mandates we are discussing with the clients that there is clearly an uptick in this business. And therefore, I expect rising revenues actually in that business also in Q3 and in the following quarters. And I also think that Q2 has again shown that also in the trading business, we have done quite well and also compared to our peers that we are actually maintaining or even growing our market share.

在IB中，我知道很多人總是認為這是波動性更大的業務，但我認為我們也不應該低估這些天IB中融資業務的穩定性，這一點也體現在今年第二季度-同比。我認為我們未來在O&A業務上的投資將會得到回報，因為我們可以看到實際上這個業務的低谷已經過去了。從我們與客戶討論的任務中我們看到，這項業務明顯在增長。因此，我預計該業務的收入在第三季度和接下來的幾個季度實際上也會增加。我還認為，第二季度再次表明，在貿易業務中，我們做得也相當好，而且與同行相比，我們實際上正在維持甚至增加我們的市場份額。

So if I take all this, I think the positioning of the Global Hausbank, with 70% of the revenue is now coming from the Private Bank, Corporate Bank and the Asset Management, growing assets under management I really do think we have the right answer in particular for the environment we are experiencing right now.

因此，如果我考慮所有這些，我認為 Global Hausbank 的定位現在 70% 的收入來自私人銀行、企業銀行和資產管理，管理資產不斷增長，我確實認為我們有正確的答案特別是對於我們現在正在經歷的環境。

Now coming to the concrete revenue question and not only for '23 or '24, let me give you some more guidance. A, the NII curve is holding up far stronger than we initially planned. And I do believe that with regard to our own existing plan, we see positive surprises also in the second half of '23. And I do also think in '24.

現在談到具體的收入問題，不僅僅是 23 或 24 年，讓我給你一些更多的指導。 A，NII 曲線的表現比我們最初計劃的要強得多。我確實相信，就我們自己現有的計劃而言，我們也會在 23 年下半年看到積極的驚喜。我也確實想到了 24 年。

Let me give you one example, in the Private Bank business we see a modest 3-digit million revenue increase potential in the second half alone versus our own plan, and that is mainly coming from NII, but also from the growing assets under management. the assumptions which we had so far in the corporate bank when it comes to the decrease in NII I would say, were too conservative. And I would also predict that going forward, this will be slower than anticipated. It will come down, but it is slower.

讓我舉一個例子，在私人銀行業務中，與我們自己的計劃相比，我們認為僅下半年就有三位數的收入增長潛力，這主要來自NII，但也來自管理資產的增​​長。我想說，到目前為止，我們對企業銀行的NII 下降的假設過於保守。我還預測，展望未來，這將比預期慢。會下來，但是比較慢。

The growth in investment and other fee income, as I just said, is encouraging. It's not only the assets under management, but you have seen the announcement of relationship business we are doing, for instance, with Lufthansa on Miles & More. And to be honest, Anke, this is not the one-off. This is actually coming more and more as additional mandates. In particular, if I think about how the Corporate Bank is thriving. These mandates are coming in more and more. And therefore, I really do believe we are building now the platform to growth in non-NII business with all the technology spend, which we did in the corporate bank, but also obviously in the other business. And therefore, we did all the investments in O&A and Wealth Management also in hiring the people because we see that this business will grow, that there is the increased discussions we have with clients, in particular in O&A and therefore, we staffed up for that.

正如我剛才所說，投資和其他費用收入的增長令人鼓舞。這不僅是管理的資產，而且您也看到了我們正在開展的關係業務的公告，例如，Miles & More 與漢莎航空的關係業務。老實說，安克，這不是一次性的。這實際上越來越多地作為附加任務出現。特別是，如果我想到企業銀行是如何蓬勃發展的。這些任務越來越多。因此，我確實相信我們現在正在利用所有技術支出構建非 NII 業務增長的平台，我們在企業銀行中做到了這一點，但顯然也在其他業務中做到了這一點。因此，我們在 O&A 和財富管理方面進行了所有投資，同時也在招聘人才，因為我們看到這項業務將會增長，我們與客戶的討論會越來越多，特別是在 O&A 方面，因此，我們為此配備了人員。

So looking at all of this and with the starting base of EUR 15 billion of revenues, look, there is clearly upside in the Private Bank versus our own plan in the second half. And to be honest, I wouldn't be surprised if we see a similar number in the Private Bank in the second half than what we have seen in the first half. I think very stable numbers in the Corporate Bank, potentially slightly lower because of the NII curve. But again, we have been very conservative in the past, potentially too conservative. Stable asset management and very robust IB with growing O&A revenues. So all this gave us the confidence, James and I, that we clearly can hint to a higher revenue base than the midpoint of EUR 28 billion to EUR 29 billion. I think we can focus on the EUR 29 billion number.

因此，縱觀所有這一切，以及 150 億歐元收入的起始基礎，與我們自己的下半年計劃相比，私人銀行顯然有上行空間。老實說，如果下半年私人銀行的數字與上半年相似，我不會感到驚訝。我認為企業銀行的數字非常穩定，由於 NII 曲線，可能會略有下降。但同樣，我們過去一直非常保守，甚至可能過於保守。穩定的資產管理和非常強大的 IB，O&A 收入不斷增長。因此，詹姆斯和我，這一切給了我們信心，我們顯然可以暗示收入基礎高於 280 億歐元至 290 億歐元的中點。我認為我們可以關注290億歐元這個數字。

And if I then look at the businesses we are creating, again, in the non-NII but also actually what we always emphasized here that the real uptick in NII in the Private Bank is only coming in '24 and '25, honestly, I'm very bullish on the revenue trajectory for '24 and '25. So I think we are exactly rightly placed from a revenue point of view, from a positioning and hence it plays into our cards.

如果我再看看我們在非國家信息基礎設施中創建的業務，但實際上我們一直在這裡強調，私人銀行的國家信息基礎設施的真正上升只會在 24 和 25 年出現，老實說，我我非常看好 24 和 25 年的收入軌跡。因此，我認為從收入的角度、從定位的角度來看，我們的定位完全正確，因此它發揮了我們的作用。

The next question is from the line of Nicolas Payen with Kepler Cheuvreux.

下一個問題來自 Nicolas Payen 和 Kepler Cheuvreux。

I have 2, please. The first one would be on costs. And could you give us a bit of color regarding how you think about costs for the rest of the year and whether the EUR 1.6 billion to EUR 1.65 billion of monthly adjusted cost run rate still holds. And maybe also in light of the price pressure that we are seeing, how do you manage to strike a balance between cost discipline and investment for growth and which areas are you prioritizing?

我有2個，拜託。第一個是成本。您能否告訴我們一些關於您如何看待今年剩餘時間的成本以及每月調整後 16 億至 16.5 億歐元的成本運行率是否仍然有效的信息。也許還考慮到我們所看到的價格壓力，您如何設法在成本控制和增長投資之間取得平衡，以及您優先考慮哪些領域？

And the second question will be on CLP, it was the same question regarding the outlook for the rest of the year. And particularly after the increase in Q2, have you got any concern in any particular areas?

第二個問題是關於中電的，這是關於今年剩餘時間前景的相同問題。特別是在第二季度增長之後，您在任何特定領域有任何擔憂嗎？

Thanks, Nicolas. It's James. I'll take both of your questions, and Christian may want to add. Look, we've talked about the run rate as we -- it gives you a sense of what management is focused on. And I think the past 3 quarters, we've been able to adhere to the run rate, and it's been an area of real focus given both the need to deliver on cost savings measures in order to support that and manage the investments in a phasing that corresponds with the cost takeout that we're achieving. So if I think about priorities, look, our priorities on the cost measures are reasonably clear. We laid them out in March of last year, and we're building on that. And they are focused on particularly technology distribution platform in Private Bank, in particular, but not exclusively and then infrastructure support.

謝謝，尼古拉斯。是詹姆斯。我會回答你的兩個問題，克里斯蒂安可能想補充。看，我們已經討論了運行率，因為它讓您了解管理層關注的重點。我認為在過去的三個季度中，我們一直能夠堅持運行率，並且考慮到需要採取成本節約措施以支持這一點並分階段管理投資，這一直是一個真正關注的領域這與我們正在實現的成本支出相對應。因此，如果我考慮優先事項，你看，我們在成本衡量方面的優先事項相當明確。我們於去年三月制定了這些計劃，並在此基礎上繼續發展。他們特別關注私人銀行的技術分發平台，特別是但不限於基礎設施支持。

Can we make that infrastructure support more efficient. And so we're very focused on that and the delivery. In terms of priorities on the business growth side, leave aside control investments for a moment, where I do think we're near or at the peak of what is required in order to finish that control remediation agenda. We've been -- we want to be really clear that our focus is on the capital-light product areas in the firm and the ability to grow fee and commission income going forward, that supports both the return potential of the company and the distribution profile in the future. And those areas, Christian has talked about Wealth Management being one, Origination & Advisory being a second. In the Corporate Bank, the fee income sources in the Corporate Bank that go to technology capabilities, but also just growing our client footprint in some areas where we're a leader.

我們能否使基礎設施支持更加高效？因此，我們非常關注這一點和交付。就業務增長方面的優先事項而言，暫時擱置控制投資，我確實認為我們已經接近或處於完成控制補救議程所需的峰值。我們一直想明確表示，我們的重點是公司的輕資本產品領域以及未來增加費用和佣金收入的能力，這支持公司的回報潛力和分配未來的個人資料。在這些領域，克里斯蒂安談到財富管理是其中之一，發起和諮詢是第二個。在企業銀行中，企業銀行的費用收入來源於技術能力，但也只是在我們處於領先地位的某些領域擴大了我們的客戶足跡。

I have dock custody as one example. So we've been focused on those types of investments, and I think we're making really good progress. Just going to the run rate. One thing as much as we're focused on that range, we do see the pressures I've outlined coming towards the end of the year. Numis, as an obvious example, will give us about EUR 50 million per quarter of additional expense. And then the investment we make in frontline bankers taking advantage of the opportunity in the marketplace, maybe a little bit more. So if the exit rate per month is perhaps EUR 25 million more constant FX, that would be a natural place.

我以碼頭保管為例。因此，我們一直專注於這些類型的投資，我認為我們正在取得非常好的進展。只是去運行率。儘管我們非常關注這個範圍，但我們確實看到了我所概述的壓力將在今年年底到來。 Numis 是一個明顯的例子，每個季度將為我們帶來約 5000 萬歐元的額外費用。然後，我們利用市場機會對一線銀行家進行的投資可能會更多一些。因此，如果每月的退出率可能比固定匯率高 2500 萬歐元，那將是一個自然的選擇。

But I think we're -- in essence, we've started to run downhill. In terms of the -- our ability to deliver on those cost savings being derisked, if you like, and gaining momentum. The UNITY project is one example that is behind us. And as we said in the prepared remarks, now it's about crystallizing the run rate benefits over time, but there are many more similar initiatives that will have a cumulative impact at which point our greater challenge is phasing of growth investments rather than delivery of cost savings.

但我認為，本質上，我們已經開始走下坡路。就我們實現這些成本節約的能力而言，如果你願意的話，我們正在消除風險，並獲得動力。 UNITY 項目就是我們身後的一個例子。正如我們在準備好的發言中所說，現在的重點是隨著時間的推移具體化運行率效益，但還有更多類似的舉措將產生累積影響，此時我們面臨的更大挑戰是分階段進行增長投資，而不是實現成本節約。

I just want to say one other thing, while we're on the costs, this nonoperating cost area for us, obviously, frustrating to have those exceed, especially those out of our control, original planning. So I look to the second half, we would expect at around, say, EUR 100 million per quarter, the remainder of the restructuring and severance costs that we outlined for the year to come through. Always uncertain on litigation, but clearly, we would hope to do much better going forward than in the most recent quarter.

我只想說另一件事，雖然我們在考慮成本，但對於我們來說，這個非運營成本領域顯然令人沮喪，因為這些超出了我們的控制範圍，尤其是那些超出我們控制的原始計劃。因此，我展望下半年，我們預計每季度大約 1 億歐元，這是我們為今年概述的重組和遣散費的剩餘部分。訴訟方面始終存在不確定性，但顯然，我們希望未來能比最近一個季度做得更好。

And then finally, one thing to just make you aware of, we alluded to a little bit in our disclosures it's early to talk about specific purchase price adjustments and what have you in the Numis closing process. But our current expectation is that we would impair the goodwill attached to that immediately on closing. So in the fourth quarter, producing about a EUR 200 million item there also that we would think of as nonoperating. So for your models and awareness.

最後，有一點需要讓您注意，我們在披露的信息中提到了一點，現在談論具體的購買價格調整以及 Numis 關閉流程中的內容還為時過早。但我們目前的預期是，我們將在成交後立即損害與之相關的商譽。因此，在第四季度，我們還生產了約 2 億歐元的產品，我們將其視為非運營產品。所以對於你的模型和意識來說。

On CLPs, I'll try to be shorter. Look, the guidance takes into account everything we know today. The environment on balance is in line with our expectations. And if I go all the way back to the beginning of the year, maybe even a little better than our expectations. We did have the idiosyncratic items in the first quarter in IPB come through, and that sort of pushed us up in our range. But otherwise, at the, call it, 30 basis points, we think it captures our expectations about the second half. And we see this as a slightly elevated but not a broad deterioration of the credit environment. So we're very comfortable with the guidance there.

關於 CLP，我會盡量簡短一些。看，該指南考慮了我們今天所知道的一切。總體而言，環境符合我們的預期。如果我一直追溯到今年年初，甚至可能比我們的預期好一點。我們確實在第一季度的 IPB 中完成了一些特殊的項目，這在某種程度上推動了我們的範圍。但除此之外，我們認為 30 個基點符合我們對下半年的預期。我們認為這是信貸環境略有惡化，但並非全面惡化。所以我們對那裡的指導感到非常滿意。

Next question is from the line of Adam Terelak with Mediobanca.

下一個問題來自 Adam Terelak 和 Mediobanca 的血統。

I've got one on capital and one on NII. On capital and capital return, good to see the EUR 450 million, but I wanted to poke around a little bit beyond that. The pro forma CET1 is 13.1% post your headwinds, your capital generates. So would it be possible for a buyback or another leg to come as soon as the full year results. And then you're clearly highlighting EUR 8 billion of total capital return through the '22 to '25 plan, of which you've really done EUR 1.75 billion. So just a sense of how quickly you need to accelerate capital return plans in order to get through that full EUR 8 billion, I think it would be really helps to investors. The EUR 450 million is helpful, but people want to know what's coming beyond that?

我有一本關於資本的，一本關於NII的。關於資本和資本回報，很高興看到 4.5 億歐元，但我想進一步探討一下。預計 CET1 是在你的逆風之後，你的資本產生的 13.1%。那麼，一旦全年業績公佈，是否有可能進行回購或另一輪迴購。然後，您明確強調通過“22 至 25”計劃獲得 80 億歐元的總資本回報，其中您實際完成了 17.5 億歐元。因此，只要了解您需要多快地加速資本回報計劃才能完成全部 80 億歐元，我認為這對投資者確實有幫助。 4.5 億歐元很有幫助，但人們想知道除此之外還會發生什麼？

And then secondly, on NII, you're talking about the long-dated NII tailwind within the private bank. This makes sense given the nature of that business. But can you put some numbers to it? I think there's worries in the market around peak NII, but a sense of what that recurring tailwind into '24, '25, '26 and even beyond, would look like -- would give us a bit more confidence about your revenue trajectory beyond this year? So a bit more color around volume of hedges or kind of the back book rate on those hedges would really give us a bit more -- some more to play with when we think about the longer-term NII story.

其次，關於 NII，您談論的是私人銀行內部長期的 NII 推動力。考慮到該業務的性質，這是有道理的。但你能給它一些數字嗎？我認為市場在 NII 峰值附近存在擔憂，但是對 24 年、25 年、26 年甚至更遠的時期反復出現的順風的感覺，將使我們對您在此之後的收入軌跡更有信心年？因此，圍繞對沖交易量或這些對沖的回賬率增加一點色彩確實會給我們帶來更多——當我們考慮長期 NII 故事時，有更多的可玩性。

Thank you, Adam, for your questions. Let me start with your capital question, and then I hand over to James with regard to the NII question and some more details beyond the comments I made before. Look, on the capital, first of all, thank you very much for the recognition of the EUR 450 million. It's, I think, hugely important for management to deliver that what we have promised. And so far, what we have promised we delivered. And therefore, one thing is clear, the EUR 8 billion absolutely stand that is our target. And based how the company evolves, how actually the capital ratio looks like, if I think about the growth. You just heard from James, how committed we are on the cost line and hence to further increase the operating leverage, we have full confidence in delivering the EUR 8 billion. I think, and we clearly understand that obviously, this should be a continuous trajectory. And therefore, I also said in the prepared remarks, it is clearly our aim to continue that distribution in '24.

謝謝亞當提出的問題。讓我從你的基本問題開始，然後我將關於 NII 問題以及我之前發表的評論之外的更多細節交給 James。你看，關於資本，首先非常感謝大家對4.5億歐元的認可。我認為，對於管理層來說，兌現我們的承諾非常重要。到目前為止，我們已經兌現了承諾。因此，有一點是明確的，80 億歐元絕對是我們的目標。如果我考慮到增長，那麼根據公司的發展情況，資本比率的實際情況。您剛剛從 James 那裡聽到，我們在成本方面的投入非常大，因此為了進一步提高運營槓桿，我們對交付 80 億歐元充滿信心。我認為，我們清楚地明白，顯然，這應該是一個連續的軌跡。因此，我在準備好的發言中也說過，我們的目標顯然是在 24 年繼續進行這種分配。

Now you will understand after we just published our share buyback last night that we won't give you the details for next year because this also always requires a detailed planning. Our planning around starts in September. Then I think we have such a constructive relationship with our regulator that warrants then the next discussion. But looking where we see the firm, it is our clear aim to continue this trajectory in '24. I think we have gone on a pretty nice journey with an annual increase of 50% when it comes to dividend. We did this not only on the dividend side but also on the share buyback. And as we think this is exactly the right approach, one can potentially think that this is the management aim also to do that in '24. So hopefully, that gives you a little bit of way forward. But clearly, it's not back-end loaded only in '25. We know what we have to deliver in '24. James?

現在您會明白，在我們昨晚剛剛發布股票回購後，我們不會向您提供明年的詳細信息，因為這也總是需要詳細的計劃。我們的計劃從九月開始。然後我認為我們與監管機構有著如此建設性的關係，值得進行下一次討論。但從我們對公司的看法來看，我們的明確目標是在 24 年繼續保持這一軌跡。我認為我們已經走過了一段非常美好的旅程，股息每年增長 50%。我們不僅在股息方面這樣做，還在股票回購方面這樣做。由於我們認為這正是正確的方法，人們可能會認為這也是管理層在 24 年實現這一目標的目標。希望這能為您帶來一些前進的方向。但顯然，後端加載並不是 25 年才有的。我們知道 24 年我們必須交付什麼。詹姆士？

And Adam, thank you for the question. There's so much that goes into banks sort of rate hedging and profiles, it is hard to pull out. The hedging on the PB portfolio is longer than CB and more euro heavy. So that effect will be with us for several years after '24. It's been a while since I've looked at this in this way. But my memory is that, that uplift is sort of between EUR 200 million and EUR 300 million per year for a period of time. So that uplift is considerable just on the rate side. If you've got volumes and sort of a spread dynamic, sort of more active hedging as well as capital benefits and improving unsecured spreads, there's a number of different features that can help support the NII of the group and the businesses over time. So isolating that item, good story. There's sustainable growth that comes after '24 and actually already in '24, especially in the second half, but it's one of a number of supportive items. Hopefully, that helps give you some color on it.

亞當，謝謝你的提問。銀行的利率對沖和配置文件涉及太多內容，很難撤出。 PB 投資組合的對沖時間比 CB 更長，且歐元更重。因此，這種影響將在 24 年後持續幾年。我已經有一段時間沒有以這種方式看待這個問題了。但我的記憶是，在一段時間內，每年的增幅約為 2 億至 3 億歐元。因此，僅在利率方面，這種提升就相當可觀。如果您擁有交易量和某種利差動態、更積極的對沖以及資本收益和改善無擔保利差，那麼有許多不同的功能可以幫助支持集團和企業的NII。所以隔離這個項目，好故事。 24 年後，實際上已經出現了可持續增長，特別是在下半年，但這只是眾多支持性項目之一。希望這可以給你帶來一些啟發。

Next question is from the line of Kian Abouhossein with JPMorgan.

下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Kian Abouhossein。

I just wanted to come back to the costs. So if I understand this correctly, we should think more of a cost run rate per month of EUR 1.675 billion. That gets me to EUR 20.1 billion annualized. Is there any other factors that you think we should consider rather than this constant adjustment of the cost base? Can you share that with us is there anything else, any curveball that we should think which could impact costs in '24/'25 going forward? And in that context, on a stated cost basis, can you just clarify what we should think of as a run rate severance and litigation expenses? You mentioned numbers in the past, but they might have changed based on the experience in the second quarter.

我只是想回到成本上來。因此，如果我理解正確的話，我們應該更多地考慮每月 16.75 億歐元的成本運行率。這樣我的年收入就達到了 201 億歐元。除了不斷調整成本基礎之外，您認為我們還應該考慮其他因素嗎？您能否與我們分享一下，我們認為還有什麼其他事情或任何曲線球可能會影響“24/25”未來的成本？在這種情況下，在規定的成本基礎上，您能否澄清一下我們應該如何看待運行費、遣散費和訴訟費用？您過去提到過數字，但根據第二季度的經驗，這些數字可能會發生變化。

And then the second question I have is regarding the private bank. You're running at a clean cost income around EUR 76 million, still looks very high, considering how the higher rates have helped you on the NII. And I was thinking how we should think about the cost income development, and in particular cost development absolute in the Private Bank.

我的第二個問題是關於私人銀行的。您的清潔成本收入約為 7600 萬歐元，考慮到較高的利率如何幫助您提高國家信息基礎設施 (NII)，您的清潔成本收入看起來仍然很高。我在想我們應該如何考慮成本收入的發展，特別是私人銀行的絕對成本發展。

So thank you, Kian. Yes. EUR 1.675 billion is not a bad place to think of in terms of exit rate. We'd be pleased to run the company out there over the course of next year. There are always curveballs in the expense world, but we -- and that's what I mean by running down hill. I think that our -- the tools that we have to manage those curveballs hopefully begin to expand as we come out of a shrinking control remediation, repairing our technology estate world of the, call it, the past 5 years and move into a growth and an accelerating benefit from initiatives underway world. Leave FX aside for a second because that will obviously change the run rate going forward. But otherwise, I'd say inflation is tough, especially on the technology side. So how much inflation flows through.

謝謝你，基安。是的。就退出率而言，16.75 億歐元並不是一個糟糕的數字。我們很高興能在明年運營公司。消費領域總是存在曲線球，但我們——這就是我所說的“走下坡路”的意思。我認為，隨著我們走出控制範圍縮小的補救措施，修復過去五年的技術產業世界，並進入增長和發展階段，我們管理這些曲線球的工具有望開始擴展。世界各地正在進行的舉措正在加速受益。先把外匯放在一邊，因為這顯然會改變未來的運行速度。但除此之外，我想說通貨膨脹是艱難的，尤其是在技術方面。那麼有多少通貨膨脹流經。

Again, I want to be clear, because we have so much coming on the expense initiative side, it would then give us the flexibility to phase and time some of the investments in a way that gives us control and allows us to manage that. Obviously, we'd like to make the investments and investments that are high return, low marginal cost income ratio is the direction of travel, but that gives us sort of additional levers.

我想再次澄清，因為我們在費用計劃方面有很多進展，這將使我們能夠靈活地分階段和安排一些投資，從而使我們能夠控制並管理投資。顯然，我們希望進行高回報、低邊際成本收益比的投資，這才是我們的發展方向，但這給了我們額外的槓桿。

Litigation, severance and restructuring, obviously, the second is in our control. We would probably tell you that a typical severance year, if nothing else is going on is maybe EUR 100 million, EUR 150 million per year, so not gigantic. But it -- and it really just depends on whether there are larger programs that we initiate and then put aside. But obviously, we'd like to get to the end of a period of time where major initiatives are necessary as part of the transformation of the company. And then on litigation, that's been hard to estimate. And in fairness, there have been items that have taken us by surprise, both last year with the third-party messaging as an example, in this most recent quarter with a number of items.

訴訟、遣散和重組，顯然，第二個是我們掌控的。我們可能會告訴您，如果不發生其他情況，典型的遣散費年可能為每年 1 億歐元、1.5 億歐元，所以並不是很大。但這實際上只取決於我們是否啟動了更大的計劃，然後又擱置了。但顯然，我們希望在一段時期結束時，需要採取重大舉措作為公司轉型的一部分。然後在訴訟方面，這很難估計。公平地說，有些項目讓我們感到驚訝，去年以第三方消息傳遞為例，最近一個季度有很多項目。

One always has the view that as you get through items they're behind you, you've taken out the risk and then, therefore, the forward list of matters begins to diminish. But it's -- and the run rate there, therefore, is hard to define properly, but we'd love for that to be sub-EUR 400 million in a year, let alone in a quarter. On Private Bank, Christian would want to add, but the operating leverage in Private Bank will be, we think, dramatic over the years ahead. And that's really the story there.

人們總是認為，當你完成了他們在你身後的項目時，你就消除了風險，因此，前面的事項清單開始減少。但它的運行率因此很難正確定義，但我們希望一年內的運行率低於 4 億歐元，更不用說一個季度了。關於私人銀行，克里斯蒂安想補充一點，但我們認為，未來幾年私人銀行的運營槓桿將非常巨大。這就是真正的故事。

Yes. So well, you took my words because Kian, I think you are right. Obviously, we are not yet happy with the cost income ratio we have in the Private Bank. But if you see only on the cost side, what is still to come just because of the finalization now of UNITY, EUR 300 million of cost will fall away in '25. We have branch closures further to come. I think in the last quarter or in the last 2 quarters, we closed approximately 90 or 100 branches that goes on, this is continuing. You have seen our announcement on the mortgage side that we are actually reducing their also our people in the business as a consequence of our business mix and the capital allocation.

是的。好吧，你接受了我的話，因為基恩，我認為你是對的。顯然，我們對私人銀行的成本收入比率還不滿意。但如果你只看成本方面，由於現在 UNITY 的最終確定，接下來還會發生什麼，3 億歐元的成本將在 25 年減少。我們還將關閉分行。我認為在上個季度或最後兩個季度，我們關閉了大約 90 或 100 個分支機構，這種情況還在繼續。您已經看到我們在抵押貸款方面的公告，由於我們的業務組合和資本配置，我們實際上正在減少他們和我們的業務人員。

So I think on the cost side, in the Private Bank, if I also look at all the key deliverables under Rebecca's wing, where she is now working with Claudio de Sanctis on, there is a clear cost takeout on itself, and I haven't even touched now on the revenue side. On the revenue side, actually clear upside. I just gave you a little bit of number for the second half of 2023. This is not extraordinary income. This is just better revenues that we initially planned. That will continue also when I look at the plan in the year '24 and '25 also on the back of the NII comments James made earlier. And all that brings us actually into a cost income range for the private bank, which is in the low 60s and that in 2025. That is our plan, and we feel exactly on that trajectory. And I do also think with the announcements Claudio made on making the structure now after building up the private bank internationally and private in Germany under Karls leadership now moving it together there is additional costs which we actually take out. So therefore, I'm absolutely confident that we can achieve this low 60s cost/income ratio than in '25.

因此，我認為在成本方面，在私人銀行，如果我也看看麗貝卡（Rebecca）的翼下的所有關鍵交付成果（她現在與克勞迪奧·德桑克蒂斯（Claudio de Sanctis）合作），其本身就有明顯的成本支出，而且我還沒有看到。現在甚至沒有觸及收入方面。在收入方面，實際上有明顯的上升空間。我剛剛給了你們一些2023年下半年的數字。這並不是什麼特別的收入。這只是我們最初計劃的更好的收入。當我考慮 24 年和 25 年的計劃時，這種情況也將繼續下去，同時也是基於 James 早些時候發表的 NII 評論。所有這些實際上使我們進入了私人銀行的成本收入範圍，即 2025 年的 60 多歲。這就是我們的計劃，我們感覺完全在這個軌道上。我也確實認為，克勞迪奧在卡爾領導下建立了國際私人銀行和德國私人銀行後宣佈建立結構，現在將其合併在一起，我們實際上承擔了額外的成本。因此，我絕對有信心我們能夠實現 60 年代比 25 年代低的成本/收入比。

The next question is from the line of Stuart Graham with Autonomous Research.

下一個問題來自斯圖爾特·格雷厄姆（Stuart Graham）的自主研究。

I had a couple, please, geeky questions on your CRE exposures. So thank you for the extra information in the interim report. You now talk about nonrecourse loans of EUR 40 billion, but I think that's a different definition to the EUR 33 billion you talked about at the Q1 stage. So my question is why the change in definition? And what is the like-for-like figure to the EUR 33 billion at Q1?

我有幾個關於你的 CRE 暴露的奇怪問題。感謝您在中期報告中提供的額外信息。您現在談到400億歐元的無追索權貸款，但我認為這與您在第一季度談到的330億歐元是不同的定義。所以我的問題是為什麼要改變定義？第一季度 330 億歐元的同比數字是多少？

And then secondly, you talked about an additional EUR 800 million of stressed bad debt provisions for CRE but presumably some of that is already captured in your basic provisioning guidance given the current provisioning run rate of EUR 100 million a quarter for CRE. So how much of that EUR 800 million is incremental stressed provisioning not captured in your current guidance, please?

其次，您談到了為 CRE 額外提供 8 億歐元的壞賬準備金，但考慮到目前 CRE 每季度 1 億歐元的準備金運行率，其中的一部分可能已經包含在您的基本準備金指南中。那麼，這 8 億歐元中有多少是增量壓力準備金沒有包含在您當前的指導中？

Yes. On the second question -- yes, great question. Probably around EUR 500 million of the EUR 800 million not in. So we -- and depends, by the way, Stuart, on the time frame you choose. So over this year and next, we would expect another few hundred million of total provisions to come in. And therefore, I would say, about EUR 500 million incremental. We had been working hard on that disclosure. And also to your question about definitions, what we were trying to clean up is this -- is 2 things. One is the NACE code disclosure, which is a is an industry definition, but to be fair, not really how we think about risk managing the portfolio. And therefore, we wanted to bridge from the NACE at around EUR 40 billion within the NACE definition, there is nonrecourse and recourse.

是的。關於第二個問題——是的，很好的問題。 8 億歐元中可能有大約 5 億歐元不在。所以我們——順便說一句，斯圖爾特，取決於你選擇的時間範圍。因此，在今年和明年，我們預計將有另外幾億的準備金總額。因此，我想說，增量約為 5 億歐元。我們一直在努力披露這一信息。對於你關於定義的問題，我們試圖清理的是——有兩件事。一是 NACE 代碼披露，這是一個行業定義，但公平地說，這並不是我們真正如何看待投資組合風險管理。因此，我們希望在 NACE 定義內以約 400 億歐元的金額與 NACE 建立橋樑，存在無追索權和追索權。

Ironically, there's also some nonrecourse outside of the NACE definition in these numbers. So we're trying to give you sort of reconcile, if you like, to some of the existing external disclosures. What I think is important though is, is this kind of the EUR 33 billion of the old focused portfolio, the EUR 34 billion of the new focus portfolio, what we're trying to give you is a sense of the size of the perimeter that is our focus from a risk management perspective, where we think -- what is the portfolio that can produce losses based on its exposure to the current environment? That's a little bit different today than it was in the COVID time when we first created the focus portfolio. And so hence, also a shift to that. but not a meaningful difference in terms of total exposures. So that's hopefully some color, Stuart, to help you understand what we were trying to do for you in that disclosure.

諷刺的是，這些數字中還存在一些 NACE 定義之外的無追索權。因此，如果您願意的話，我們正在努力讓您與一些現有的外部披露進行協調。但我認為重要的是，對於 330 億歐元的舊重點投資組合和 340 億歐元的新重點投資組合，我們試圖讓您了解邊界的大小，從風險管理的角度來看，我們關注的焦點是——根據當前環境的暴露情況，哪些投資組合可能會產生損失？今天的情況與我們首次創建重點投資組合時的新冠疫情時期有些不同。因此，也轉向了這一點。但就總暴露而言，沒有顯著差異。 Stuart，希望這能幫助您理解我們在該披露中試圖為您做的事情。

So I should basically forget the EUR 33 billion and then just focus on the new disclosure, yes?

所以我基本上應該忘記 330 億歐元，然後只關注新的披露，是嗎？

I would -- look, the problem with the Pillar 3 is often that the industry disclosure in the Pillar 3 is really tough to draw meaningful conclusions from. So yes, short answer is trust us that we're doing our very best to show you the portfolio that we are focused on risk managing in those disclosures.

我認為，第三支柱的問題通常是，第三支柱中的行業披露確實很難得出有意義的結論。所以是的，簡短的回答是相信我們，我們正在盡最大努力向您展示我們在這些披露中專注於風險管理的投資組合。

And Stuart, I cannot help myself as a former risk measure to comment on that because, a, the downside, which we now included with the EUR 800 million is obviously something which is over multiple years. It's not only this year and next year. So it's a real downside spread over multiple years. And therefore, I don't want that this is now taken in any wrong context, and you think this is a hidden way to increase our base case not at all, but we feel that transparency may even help you to see how strong this portfolio is.

斯圖爾特，作為一個以前的風險衡量標準，我忍不住對此發表評論，因為，a，我們現在將其納入 8 億歐元的不利因素顯然是多年以來的事情。不僅僅是今年和明年。因此，這是一個持續多年的真正下行趨勢。因此，我不希望現在在任何錯誤的背景下採取這一點，並且您認為這是一種隱藏的方式來增加我們的基本情況，但我們認為透明度甚至可以幫助您了解這個投資組合的強大程度是。

Next question is from the line of Jeremy Sigee with BNP Paribas.

下一個問題來自法國巴黎銀行的 Jeremy Sigee。

I've got a couple of questions on capital, please. The first one is you mentioned that you've now got very friendly relations with ECB, and I think it's a nice positive surprise that you've got this approval perhaps earlier than we were expecting, it didn't have to wait for you to print the 1H numbers. You've already got the approval. And I just wondered if you could talk about what's changed in that regulatory relationship because obviously, you're in a tougher situation at the start of the year when you couldn't do the buybacks that you wanted. And I just wondered what the main change is, whether it's sort of visibility on your headwinds or other factors. So sort of what has changed in that regulatory context and these approvals being so forthcoming now?

我有幾個關於資本的問題請教。第一個是你提到你現在與歐洲央行建立了非常友好的關係，我認為這是一個很好的積極驚喜，你可能比我們預期的更早獲得批准，它不必等待你打印 1H 數字。你已經得到了批准。我只是想知道您是否可以談談監管關係發生了什麼變化，因為顯然，您在年初的處境更加艱難，因為您無法進行想要的回購。我只是想知道主要的變化是什麼，是否是對逆風或其他因素的可見性。那麼，監管環境發生了什麼變化以及這些批准現在如此即將到來？

And then my second question, also on capital. I just wondered if you had any perspectives on the U.S. Basel III finalization that's coming through? And just how that might impact you, either in your -- does it impact your local U.S. business? Or do you already have such a high CET1 ratio there that it's not particularly affected? Does it affect competitive position for the group in the U.S. or elsewhere? Does it create pressure for Europe to tighten up its implementation of Basel III finalization? Any views on that would be really interesting.

然後是我的第二個問題，也是關於資本的。我只是想知道您對美國即將完成的巴塞爾協議 III 有何看法？這可能會對您產生怎樣的影響，是否會影響您在美國當地的業務？或者您的 CET1 比率已經如此之高，以至於沒有受到特別影響？這是否會影響該集團在美國或其他地方的競爭地位？這是否會給歐洲加緊巴塞爾協議III最終敲定的實施帶來壓力？任何對此的看法都會非常有趣。

Yes, Jeremy, let me start, and I hate to correct you, but I think I said very constructive. So I must be careful and don't want to say friendly, because that may be even taking wrong then. So we have a very constructive relationship with our regulator, and that should be always the case. Look, what changed and James may want to add for this. I think actually, nothing really changed because we ourselves at the beginning of the year, as we always said, in November and December says we want to wait how '23 is starting, how the economy is actually developing. We would like to see how the first quarter is developing.

是的，傑里米，讓我開始，我不想糾正你，但我認為我說得很有建設性。所以我一定要小心，不要說友善，因為那樣的話甚至可能會出錯。因此，我們與監管機構保持著非常有建設性的關係，而且情況應該始終如此。看看，發生了什麼變化，詹姆斯可能想為此添加一些內容。我認為實際上，沒有什麼真正改變，因為我們自己在年初，正如我們總是說的，在 11 月和 12 月說，我們想等待 23 世紀如何開始，經濟如何實際發展。我們想看看第一季度的進展如何。

And we -- as we now can say, we didn't actually apply for a share buyback at that point in time because we wanted to see what is going on in this world. Volatility was around. We have the geopolitical uncertainties. We had an inflation. The economic forecast were everything between a hard recession and actually a growth scenario. And therefore, I think, rightly so, also with all that, what we could see, James decided and with my full support that we, for the time being hold off. And then we started well into the year. We had a far better forecast what is happening. We saw how stable the business is developing. And we saw we are making good progress. And that was the right time then also with the forecast into '23 and '24 to apply for that.

正如我們現在可以說的，我們當時實際上並沒有申請股票回購，因為我們想看看這個世界正在發生什麼。波動無處不在。我們面臨地緣政治的不確定性。我們經歷了通貨膨脹。經濟預測介於嚴重衰退和實際增長之間。因此，我認為，鑑於我們所看到的一切，詹姆斯決定，在我的全力支持下，我們暫時推遲。然後我們就開始了這一年。我們對正在發生的事情有了更好的預測。我們看到業務發展得多麼穩定。我們看到我們正在取得良好進展。預計在 23 年和 24 年進行申請，當時也是正確的時間。

And in this regard, I think we had very constructive discussions. And this is my own assumption and only interpretation. I do think that the regulator also actually recognized that we were on the cautious side at the end of 2022 when it came to the start of '23. And I think that also then obviously was at least not taken negatively.

在這方面，我認為我們進行了非常有建設性的討論。這是我自己的假設和唯一的解釋。我確實認為，監管機構實際上也認識到我們在 2022 年底 23 年初時處於謹慎態度。我認為這顯然至少沒有被負面對待。

And Jeremy, just to add that the timing and magnitude of the reg changes is something that they and we have more visibility into as timing went on as the model and methodology changes. So that was helpful in terms of giving us greater confidence in that capital plan. I think the step off now in Q2 helps to support that further. And of course, that was -- the progress during the year was visible to them through the year. On U.S. Basel III final framework, obviously, very curious to see what's in it. I don't think it really impacts us in a meaningful way. in terms of our business operations, potentially competitive positioning, given that, in our view, European banks have been at a capital disadvantage for some time.

傑里米（Jeremy）補充說，隨著模型和方法的變化，隨著時間的推移，他們和我們對規則變化的時間和幅度有了更多的了解。因此，這有助於讓我們對資本計劃更有信心。我認為第二季度的退出有助於進一步支持這一點。當然，那是——這一年的進步他們在這一年裡都是看得見的。顯然，對於美國巴塞爾協議 III 最終框架，我們非常好奇其中的內容。我認為這並沒有真正對我們產生有意義的影響。就我們的業務運營而言，我們認為歐洲銀行一段時間以來一直處於資本劣勢，因此具有潛在的競爭地位。

And then there's also at least the possibility that the timing of implementation could give us a bit more breathing room relative to the 1st of January '25. But beyond that, not much expected. I would not expect that the European legislator sort of reopens its discussions based on whatever they read in the NPR. And I think that's appropriate. Europe should decide for itself what the appropriate legislation and implementation looks like.

相對於 25 年 1 月 1 日，實施時間至少有可能給我們更多的喘息空間。但除此之外，沒有太多期望。我不認為歐洲立法者會根據他們在 NPR 中讀到的內容重新開始討論。我認為這是合適的。歐洲應該自行決定適當的立法和實施方式。

Next question is from the line of Timo Dums with DZ Bank.

下一個問題來自德國中央合作銀行 (DZ Bank) 的蒂莫·杜姆斯 (Timo Dums)。

I would like to address 2 strategic topics, please. So one is on PB and one on the Miles & More deal. So starting with PB, I mean there has been a reshuffling under the new leadership with Claudio de Sanctis taking over. So when do you plan to communicate further details on -- if you could share any further details, give some color there? And would you also considering, for instance, streamlining the different brands that you are working with in PB. So that would be question number one.

我想談談 2 個戰略主題。所以一份是 PB 的，一份是 Miles & More 飛常里程匯優惠的。因此，從 PB 開始，我的意思是，克勞迪奧·德桑蒂斯 (Claudio de Sanctis) 接任後，新領導層進行了改組。那麼，您打算什麼時候傳達更多細節——如果您可以分享任何進一步的細節，並在那裡提供一些顏色？例如，您是否也會考慮簡化您在 PB 中合作的不同品牌。所以這是第一個問題。

And then on the Miles & More deal, congratulations on this one. So maybe you could outline the major drivers here why you have been chosen? And what may have changed here in that respect compared with some years ago and maybe could you discuss also the general attractiveness of this co-branded card business? I mean, some of your competitors they pulled away from the sort of business in the last 2 years.

然後是 Miles & More 飛常里程彙的交易，祝賀這一交易。那麼也許您可以概述一下您被選中的主要驅動因素？與幾年前相比，這方面可能發生了哪些變化？也許您能討論一下這種聯名卡業務的總體吸引力嗎？我的意思是，你們的一些競爭對手在過去兩年中退出了此類業務。

Well, thank you, Timo. On the PB side, look, Claudio started 24, 25 days ago. And let me -- let me start differently. First of all, I think Karl has done a wonderful job in actually making sure that the Private Banking business is becoming a profitable business. He has done a lot in order to make sure that we are on the trajectory to become a very profitable business, as we said also to Kian's question. So the trajectory, which Karl has laid is exactly the right one. Now what we will see actually in the Private Banking business is actually that the international private banking business and the German private banking business is moving closer together from a product responsibility from an investment responsibility also from an infrastructure and servicing responsibility.

好吧，謝謝你，蒂莫。在PB方面，你看，克勞迪奧是24、25天前開始的。讓我——讓我以不同的方式開始。首先，我認為卡爾在確保私人銀行業務成為一項盈利業務方面做得非常出色。正如我們在回答 Kian 的問題時所說的那樣，他做了很多工作，以確保我們走上成為一家非常有利可圖的企業的軌道。所以卡爾所設定的軌跡是完全正確的。現在我們在私人銀行業務中實際看到的是，國際私人銀行業務和德國私人銀行業務正在從產品責任、投資責任、基礎設施和服務責任越來越緊密地結合在一起。

So you will see a more leaner structure, which we now can do after we have done the necessary steps in Germany with UNITY. We can now actually pull it under a more combined and efficient leadership together, which obviously will bring certain cost benefits. On top of that, I do believe that Claudio will focus very much across the private banking business on the investment arm on the capital LiDAR. You have seen that he has done that very successfully in the international private bank. And I do believe if I look at the long-term challenges in particular in Germany, if you really think about what the people are concerned about, it's about their pensions. It's about the state pensions, which will come or not come in 10 or 15 years.

因此，您將看到一個更精簡的結構，在我們與 UNITY 在德國完成必要的步驟後，我們現在可以做到這一點。我們現在實際上可以將其置於更加聯合和高效的領導之下，這顯然會帶來一定的成本效益。最重要的是，我確實相信克勞迪奧將非常關注私人銀行業務中資本激光雷達的投資部門。你已經看到，他在國際私人銀行做到了這一點，非常成功。我確實相信，如果我關注長期挑戰，特別是在德國，如果你真正考慮人們關心的是什麼，那就是他們的養老金。這是關於國家養老金的問題，它會在 10 或 15 年內發放或不發放。

And in this regard, there is in almost each and every client meeting, there is a question how can I actually plan for my own retirement in that time period. And for that, you need a first-class offering on the investment side. And that's exactly where you need the private banking experience, private banking expertise which we have with Claudio, which we have with a lot of other people. And that's, I think, where Claudio is very much focusing on.

在這方面，幾乎在每次客戶會議上，都會有一個問題：我如何才能在這段時間內真正規劃自己的退休生活。為此，您需要在投資方面提供一流的產品。這正是您需要私人銀行業務經驗的地方，我們與克勞迪奧一起擁有私人銀行業務專業知識，我們與許多其他人一起擁有這些專業知識。我認為這就是克勞迪奧非常關注的地方。

Secondly, he would make sure that also this offering in a digital way will make its way to 15 million clients now all on the same IT platform that is really a meaningful step forward. So I'm very proud of what happened with UNITY. So I do think the power, which we can now bring in particular in the investment business to Deutsche Bank clients, but in particular, to 15 million Postbank clients being now part of our technology, is simply outstanding, and Claudio will focus on that.

其次，他將確保以數字方式提供的服務也將向 1500 萬客戶提供，現在所有客戶都在同一個 IT 平台上，這確實是向前邁出的有意義的一步。因此，我對 UNITY 所發生的事情感到非常自豪。因此，我確實認為，我們現在可以為德意志銀行客戶，特別是為 1500 萬郵政銀行客戶帶來的投資業務的力量，現在成為我們技術的一部分，是非常出色的，克勞迪奧將專注於這一點。

On the Miles & More, look, I haven't seen, by the way, from the competition and also from the deal in itself that the competition was not interested anymore in such a deal. That was a real race. We are super proud that we were able to be selected by Miles & More and by Lufthansa. What made the difference? At the end of the day, our clients can far better talk about that. I will not talk about that, the client took a decision.

順便說一句，在 Miles & More 上，我還沒有從競爭對手和交易本身中看到競爭對手對這樣的交易不再感興趣。那是一場真正的比賽。我們非常自豪能夠被 Miles & More 飛常里程彙和漢莎航空選中。是什麼造成了差異？最終，我們的客戶可以更好地談論這一點。這個我就不說了，客戶自己決定了。

But I do believe that our shift 4 years ago that the Corporate Bank, the day-to-day business, the combination, the client centricity, which we have built between the Private Bank, the Corporate Bank, the way these 2 units work together and worked in that pitch made it different. We delivered one Deutsche Bank to Lufthansa. And one Deutsche Bank to Lufthansa is not only the best platform for Miles & More and the best technology, which, by the way, we started to invest already last year in order to be ready now to really do the migration.

但我確實相信，我們四年前的轉變是企業銀行、日常業務、合併、以客戶為中心，這是我們在私人銀行、企業銀行之間建立的，這兩個部門合作的方式並在那個球場上工作讓它變得不同。我們向漢莎航空交付了一架德意志銀行。德意志銀行到漢莎航空不僅是 Miles & More 飛常里程彙的最佳平台，也是最好的技術，順便說一句，我們去年就開始投資，以便現在準備好真正進行遷移。

What we deliver to them is 15 million additional potential clients and that nobody else has and with the commitment of the full Board that the Private Bank and the Corporate Bank is as much as the heart of the Deutsche Bank business as our focused investment bank, I think the clients get it, and they want them to work with us. And I think that is the advantage which we can deliver. And I can tell you that is only the start because with that mandate, we will, I think, have a big, big chance to win other card businesses in Germany and in Europe.

我們為他們提供的是 1500 萬額外的潛在客戶，這是其他任何人都沒有的，並且董事會全體成員承諾，私人銀行和企業銀行與我們專注的投資銀行一樣是德意志銀行業務的核心，我我認為客戶明白了，他們希望與我們合作。我認為這就是我們可以提供的優勢。我可以告訴你，這只是一個開始，因為有了這項授權，我認為我們將有很大很大的機會贏得德國和歐洲的其他信用卡業務。

Next question is from the line of Andrew Lim with Societe Generale.

下一個問題來自法國興業銀行的 Andrew Lim。

I've got 3, if I may. So the first one on capital. Could you update us on the impact you'll probably see from final Basel III rules. I think the mets latest guidance was for risk-weight inflation of about EUR 30 billion. But if I'm not mistaken, that excludes the impact of the output floor. So maybe you could also give us additionally what that impact might be from the output floor.

如果可以的話，我有 3 個。所以第一個是關於資本的。您能否向我們介紹一下巴塞爾 III 最終規則可能帶來的影響？我認為大都會銀行的最新指引是風險權重通脹約為 300 億歐元。但如果我沒記錯的話，這排除了輸出層的影響。因此，也許您還可以額外向我們提供輸出層可能產生的影響。

And then on Slide 9 of the presentation on net interest margin. I see that your average interest earning assets have been declining for a few quarters here. You've pointed to lower cash balances as a cause for Q2. But is there something a bit more persistent going on in terms of maybe high interest rates denting demand for loans or maybe also the contribution from the reduction in sub-hurdle lending, maybe that has a larger impact here. So if you could talk about that in a bit more detail.

然後是關於淨息差演示文稿的幻燈片 9。我發現你們的平均生息資產這幾個季度一直在下降。您指出現金餘額下降是第二季度的原因。但是，是否有一些更持久的事情正在發生，可能是高利率削弱了貸款需求，或者可能是次級門檻貸款減少的貢獻，也許這在這裡產生了更大的影響。那麼您是否可以更詳細地談談這一點。

And then the third question is a bit more technical. So you've got EPS of only EUR 0.19 here. So I'm trying to reconcile the net profit that you've used to calculate this, it's only EUR 402 million, which is a lot lower than the EUR 763 million. So I'm trying to understand how you get to the EUR 402 million. Both of these measures include the deduction of AT1 coupons. So is there some other OCI impacts here to get to the EUR 402 million from the EUR 763 million.

第三個問題有點技術性。因此，您的每股收益僅為 0.19 歐元。所以我試圖核對一下你們用來計算的淨利潤，它只有 4.02 億歐元，比 7.63 億歐元低很多。所以我想了解一下你們是如何獲得 4.02 億歐元的。這兩項措施都包含了AT1優惠券的扣除。那麼，是否還有其他 OCI 影響從 7.63 億歐元增至 4.02 億歐元？

So Andrew, I just -- I'm not sure exactly what you were talking about in those last numbers. So we may need to clarify the area that you were at. On the capital impact, I'd say we would probably stick with the -- with our earlier commentary, which I think was 10%, but it's been a while since we've looked at that incremental of the output floor then between 25% and 30%. And in fairness, that's all pre-mitigation, business model changes and all that good stuff. So it's -- there's no update on that, but that would be orders of magnitude. And I think important to emphasize the capital measures that we talked about in April, I mean you can ask where they intended to support offsetting Basel III impact or to support the distribution same, same. They're really, I think, valuable in both respects to and to shift the group to more capital-light usage of the balance sheet.

所以安德魯，我只是——我不確定你在最後的數字中到底在說什麼。因此，我們可能需要澄清您所在的區域。關於資本影響，我想說我們可能會堅持我們之前的評論，我認為是 10%，但我們已經有一段時間沒有考慮到 25% 之間的產出底增量了。和30%。公平地說，這都是預先緩解、商業模式改變和所有這些好東西。所以，沒有任何更新，但這將是幾個數量級。我認為強調我們在四月份討論的資本措施很重要，我的意思是你可以問他們打算在哪裡支持抵消巴塞爾協議III的影響或支持分配。我認為，它們對於使集團轉向更輕資本地使用資產負債表而言，在這兩個方面都確實很有價值。

It goes a little bit to your NIM or interest-earning assets question. I'd be surprised if the next number in the series were as big as of a downward movement as the last 3. Albeit loan growth has clearly slowed down, and you're seeing the impact now of some of the decisions we announced in April around trade finance and lending as well as the mortgage book. So we would expect to see some impact in the loan balances as a consequence but we think that, that's the right decision economically in terms of supporting both RoTE and NIM going forward. And maybe I just -- I want to make sure I understand the reconciliation that you're referring to in terms of the -- was it a forward on capital that you were after? Or -- I wasn't sure.

這有點涉及你的淨息差或生息資產問題。如果該系列中的下一個數字與前三個數字一樣大，我會感到驚訝。儘管貸款增長明顯放緩，而且您現在看到了我們在 4 月份宣布的一些決定的影響圍繞貿易融資和貸款以及抵押貸款簿。因此，我們預計貸款餘額會因此受到一些影響，但我們認為，就支持 RoTE 和 NIM 的發展而言，這在經濟上是正確的決定。也許我只是——我想確保我理解你所指的和解——你所追求的是資本遠期嗎？或者——我不確定。

Okay. If I could clarify further. So on the supplementary disclosures on Page 21. So you give the net profit there of EUR 402 million to calculate your EPS of EUR 0.19. So that EUR 0.19 obviously is a lot lower than last quarter of EUR 0.63. So I'm trying to understand how you get to that EUR 402 million because on Slide 15, you've got net profit of EUR 763 million. So there's a big down shift here in the net profit. And I can't quite figure out how you get to that EUR 402 million. There doesn't seem to be any kind of disclosure there? So that's on the EPS side.

好的。如果我能進一步澄清的話。因此，根據第 21 頁的補充披露。因此，您給出 4.02 億歐元的淨利潤，以計算您的每股收益 0.19 歐元。因此 0.19 歐元顯然比上季度的 0.63 歐元低很多。所以我試圖了解如何獲得 4.02 億歐元，因為在幻燈片 15 上，您的淨利潤為 7.63 億歐元。因此，淨利潤出現了大幅下降。我不太明白你是如何獲得那 4.02 億歐元的。好像沒有什麼公開的地方吧？這就是每股收益方面的情況。

Yes. I don't think there's a mystery. I think it's just -- we've got about 2 billion and change shares outstanding. So it looks to me to be proportional to the number, but we'll -- we can quadruple check and come back to you. Again, we obviously have to take out -- in an EPS calculation, we take out all of the earnings, if you like, that go to other capital providers, whether that's been to our minority interest or AT1 holders.

是的。我不認為有什麼秘密。我認為，我們有大約 20 億股流通股。因此，在我看來，這與數字成正比，但我們可以進行四重檢查，然後再回复您。再次強調，我們顯然必須在每股收益計算中扣除所有流向其他資本提供者的收益（如果你願意的話），無論是我們的少數股東權益還是 AT1 持有者。

Yes, sure, I completely agree. I mean it seems like those 2 lines are exactly the same, except for Q2 where suddenly it's different. I mean it seems like you're deducting everything like AT1 coupons, for example, and also minority interest. So, perhaps, I can check up with you?

是的，當然，我完全同意。我的意思是，這兩條線似乎完全相同，除了 Q2 突然不同。我的意思是，您似乎扣除了所有費用，例如 AT1 優惠券，以及少數股東利息。那麼，也許我可以和你核實一下？

Yes, we can follow up on that.

是的，我們可以跟進。

Okay. Great. And then sorry, no guidance on the output floor then. Is that something we have to wait for later on, I guess?

好的。偉大的。然後抱歉，輸出層沒有任何指導。我想這是我們必須等待的事情嗎？

That was the first part. It was a ballpark of 10% but over several years with a lot still to kind of to go in terms of how we shift the balance sheet in order to mitigate what we can in that output floor impact.

這是第一部分。大概是 10%，但幾年來，我們在如何調整資產負債表以減輕產出底線影響方面仍有很多工作要做。

The 10% increase in total RWAs.

總 RWA 增加 10%。

Exactly. And that was [against] a denominator that was closer to EUR 300 million, maybe EUR 330 million than to EUR 350 million or even EUR 400 million where we will be by that time. So you have to go back several years to the point where we gave you a percentage there.

確切地。分母接近 3 億歐元，也許是 3.3 億歐元，而不是我們屆時將達到的 3.5 億歐元甚至 4 億歐元。所以你必須追溯到幾年前我們給你的百分比。

Next question is from the line of Vishal Shah with Morgan Stanley.

下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的 Vishal Shah。

I had 2 questions. The first one was on capital returns. So clearly, with the new buyback announced, your distributions are now at EUR 1.75 billion and the remaining is EUR 6.25 billion to that EUR 8 billion total target. So if I take your 50% payout policy, you would need to generate about EUR 13 billion plus in net income over the next 2 years. And then this is much higher versus consensus at about EUR 9 billion right now combined for '24 and '25. So I'm wondering how -- what are the key drivers you're looking at to bridge that gap. So that's one.

我有兩個問題。第一個是關於資本回報。很明顯，隨著新的回購宣布，您的分配現在為 17.5 億歐元，剩餘的為 62.5 億歐元，達到 80 億歐元的總目標。因此，如果我採用 50% 的支付政策，您將需要在未來 2 年內產生約 130 億歐元以上的淨利潤。這比目前 24 年和 25 年合計約 90 億歐元的共識要高得多。所以我想知道你們正在尋找哪些關鍵驅動因素來彌補這一差距。這就是其中之一。

And then the second one is on your investment banking business. So you have clearly hired a lot on the front office side there in both banking and capital markets, plus there's the Numis deal that is underway too. So clearly, you're positioning for a potential rebound in banking and capital markets activity. So I mean what I wanted to check there is if you have a target market share in mind in terms of what you -- where you want to see your banking business versus the global peers? Or with the recent hiring of the Numis deal, do you think you are rightsized from a staffing perspective at least for now? That's about it.

第二個是關於你的投資銀行業務。因此，您顯然已經在銀行和資本市場的前台招聘了很多人，而且 Numis 交易也正在進行中。很明顯，您正在為銀行和資本市場活動的潛在反彈做好準備。所以我的意思是，我想檢查的是，您是否有一個目標市場份額，即您希望在哪些方面看到您的銀行業務與全球同行相比？或者，隨著最近與 Numis 達成的聘用協議，您是否認為至少目前從人員配置的角度來看，您的規模已得到調整？就是這樣。

So Vishal, yes, on the first item, you're probably just missing a year. So we -- it's a little bit complex the way we do it, but we've said in respect of the years '21 to '25, paid in the years '22 and this would include a little bit of capital then returned in -- or a lot of capital returned in '26. So we think our -- on the trajectory that we're on, which you remember is sort of asymptotic if you go 50% per year, the increase is quite steep, and we think also prudent in light of our own view of the earnings growth potential of DB.

所以維沙爾，是的，在第一個項目上，你可能只是錯過了一年。所以我們 - 我們這樣做的方式有點複雜，但我們已經說過，關於'21至'25年，在'22年支付，這將包括一點資本，然後返回- - 或者說在 26 年返還了大量資金。因此，我們認為，按照我們目前的軌跡，如果每年增長 50%，則增長相當陡，而且根據我們自己對盈利的看法，我們認為這也是謹慎的DB的增長潛力。

On the IB item, and I'll focus now on origination and advisory, where the investments have been going, they'd be more visible perhaps, there have been investments into the FIC platform, which we think have performed very nicely in terms of our market share improvements from a low point in '18 and '19 to where we are today. We're very pleased with that progression.

在 IB 項目上，我現在將重點關注發起和諮詢，投資的去向，它們可能會更加明顯，對 FIC 平台進行了投資，我們認為該平台在以下方面表現非常好我們的市場份額從 18 年和 19 年的低點提高到了今天的水平。我們對這一進展感到非常滿意。

But in the corporate finance area where we've invested more recently, our market share has been bouncing around 2%. We do think there's a significant opportunity for us there. We don't have a specific target, but I don't think there's any reason why we shouldn't be able to double the market share in -- again, with our -- in a disciplined way inside our client footprint, inside our capital footprint. But by doing just much better in terms of closing industry gaps in terms of building more of the chain, for example, with private equity sponsors, both on the way in and the way out. There's a lot of potential that is, if you like, within our franchise perimeter that we really just haven't captured. So lots of upside for us there, I believe.

但在我們最近投資的企業融資領域，我們的市場份額一直在 2% 左右反彈。我們確實認為那裡對我們來說有一個重要的機會。我們沒有具體的目標，但我認為我們沒有任何理由不能在我們的客戶足跡中、在我們的客戶足跡中以嚴格的方式將市場份額翻倍。資本足跡。但在縮小行業差距方面做得更好，比如在進入和退出時與私募股權贊助商建立更多的產業鏈。如果你願意的話，在我們的特許經營範圍內還有很多我們尚未捕捉到的潛力。我相信，我們在那裡有很多好處。

Next question is from the line of Tom Hallett with KBW.

下一個問題來自 KBW 的 Tom Hallett。

Just a quick one. I've noticed you both in recent weeks have increased your confidence in the trading activity to pick up in the second half of the year. I'm just wondering if you could elaborate on that because -- the second quarter was actually pretty strong. And last year prior periods were also very strong on a relative basis. So yes, I would just like to know what gives you that confidence. Is it just a simple kind of maybe the credit side of things increasing a little bit more into the back end of the year?

只是快一點。我注意到你們最近幾週都增強了對下半年交易活動回升的信心。我只是想知道你是否可以詳細說明這一點，因為第二季度實際上相當強勁。去年前期相對而言也非常強勁。所以，是的，我只是想知道是什麼給了你這樣的信心。這只是一種簡單的情況，也許信貸方面在今年年底會有所增加？

Yes. So Tom, first of all, the comparative that we've got for the fourth quarter isn't very demanding. So I do think there's -- just in that, there's a real opportunity to take the year-on-year revenue up significantly. I think we're in an interesting time. We've talked about the macro weakening in lower volatility, and you've started to see that against a high base and one where we think we're executing well in terms of our client engagement. But in the language I've been using the micro coming back, especially credit and financing businesses and doing quite well.

是的。湯姆，首先，我們對第四季度的比較並不要求很高。所以我確實認為，就這一點來說，確實有機會大幅增加同比收入。我認為我們正處於一個有趣的時期。我們已經討論了波動性降低導致的宏觀疲軟，您已經開始看到這一點是在高基數的基礎上發生的，而且我們認為我們在客戶參與度方面執行得很好。但用我一直使用的微觀語言來說，尤其是信貸和融資業務，而且做得相當不錯。

An interesting question, is there an environment in which the credit stays that continues to do well in the second half and going into '24. But because we find ourselves now on the other side of the cycle, increasing volatility as investors now begin to position for an uncertain path in terms of reducing policy rates and an uncertain path in terms of the length of time the policy rates stay at the terminal rate.

一個有趣的問題是，信貸是否會在下半年並進入 24 年繼續保持良好的環境。但因為我們發現自己現在處於週期的另一邊，波動性不斷增加，因為投資者現在開始為降低政策利率的不確定路徑以及政策利率停留在終點的時間長度設定不確定的路徑速度。

So there's sort of an interesting environment that we see coming in the second half of the year. We'll see whether that comes to fruition or not. But what we -- what Ram Nayak and his team, super focused on is just engaging with our clients so that we can participate both in the flow side of that activity as well as the structure. And I think they've done a fabulous job at that. And the second quarter is a good is a good indication of how we can perform in that market or maybe a slightly better backdrop.

因此，我們預計今年下半年將會出現一個有趣的環境。我們將看看這是否會實現。但我們——拉姆·納亞克（Ram Nayak）和他的團隊超級關注的是與我們的客戶互動，這樣我們就可以參與該活動的流程和結構。我認為他們在這方面做得非常出色。第二季度是一個很好的跡象，表明我們可以在該市場中表現如何，或者可能是一個稍微好一點的背景。

Next question is from the line of Máté Nemes with UBS.

下一個問題來自瑞銀集團 (UBS) 的 Máté Nemes。

I have 2 questions, please. The first one is on capital. I was just wondering if you could give us a rundown of the moving parts on the CET1 ratio in the second half of the year. I know that you communicated a 70 basis point impact from Numis deal closing the share buyback and some of the regulatory model changes. I think Christian mentioned securitization and reduction in software lending potentially resulting also in some RWA reduction. Could you perhaps quantify that?

我有 2 個問題，請問。第一個是資本。我只是想知道您能否給我們介紹一下今年下半年 CET1 比率的變化情況。我知道您傳達了 Numis 交易完成股票回購和一些監管模式變化帶來的 70 個基點的影響。我認為 Christian 提到了證券化和軟件借貸的減少也可能導致 RWA 減少。你能量化一下嗎？

The second question is on the Corporate Bank. Obviously, the loan book declined about 4% quarter-on-quarter. I know the [slowdown] is intentional and it's clearly coming from risk management and perhaps some impact of some current lending. But I'm just wondering to what extent do you see future demand? Is that entirely driven by you? And if so, when do you expect the turnaround on that front?

第二個問題是關於企業銀行的。顯然，貸款賬面環比下降約4%。我知道[放緩]是有意為之的，這顯然來自風險管理，或許還有一些當前貸款的影響。但我只是想知道您認為未來的需求有多大？這完全是由你推動的嗎？如果是這樣，您預計這方面的轉變何時會出現？

Sure. Thank you, Máté. So briefly, the 70 basis points is still -- we're still thinking 50 basis points of model methodology adjustments there's a range around that. And then 9 basis points for Numis, 12 basis points for the capital return. The other moving parts are organic capital generation and how much we use in terms of balance sheet growth, that should produce a year-end ratio probably higher than our original guidance for the year.

當然。謝謝你，馬特。簡而言之，70 個基點仍然是——我們仍在考慮模型方法調整的 50 個基點，周圍有一個範圍。然後 Numis 上漲 9 個基點，資本回報率上漲 12 個基點。其他移動部分是有機資本生成以及我們在資產負債表增長方面​​使用的金額，這應該會產生一個可能高於我們今年最初指導的年終比率。

So we'd like to -- we'd probably be closer to or further into the 13s, let's say, than just the 200 basis points margin to MDA, which would be 13.2%. Within that, we do have embedded some assumptions about what additional support we can get from securitizations, optimization and other of the capital measures. Look, we -- I think if we outperform those assumptions or our own execution sort of path, that puts us in an even better position going into both for distribution and for the Basel III build. So those are some of the moving parts that we see.

因此，我們希望——比方說，我們可能會更接近或進一步接近 13 點，而不僅僅是 MDA 的 200 個基點利潤，即 13.2%。其中，我們確實嵌入了一些關於我們可以從證券化、優化和其他資本措施中獲得哪些額外支持的假設。看，我認為，如果我們超越這些假設或我們自己的執行路徑，這將使我們在分銷和巴塞爾 III 構建方面處於更好的位置。這些是我們看到的一些活動部件。

Yes. And on your second question, I think your kind of differentiation is the right one. Some of the lower loan growth or even decline is intentionally, by the way, not only from a risk management point of view because we have actually a very conservative and long-standing risk appetite, and therefore, we don't need to do so many adjustments in between. But of course, also we have sub-hurdle relationships where we -- and we said that in April, where we want to go for an even better and more focused risk return strategy, and that's what we are doing. So that is one part.

是的。關於你的第二個問題，我認為你的這種差異化是正確的。順便說一句，一些較低的貸款增長甚至下降是故意的，不僅僅是從風險管理的角度來看，因為我們實際上有一個非常保守和長期的風險偏好，因此，我們不需要這樣做其間有很多調整。但當然，我們也有亞障礙關係，我們在四月份說過，我們希望採取更好、更集中的風險回報策略，這就是我們正在做的事情。這就是一部分。

And secondly, yes, I think in particular, in Europe but also in Germany, you see that mid-cap companies, family-owned companies that you see a softening in loan growth and the reduction in demand for the time being, in particular, when it comes to long-term investments. To be honest, I don't think that this is something which is continuing for a very long period. But I would say that those companies would like to see where the next 6 to 12 months are going. And therefore, I would say this rather soft loan growth is something which we will see in the second half of '23, which is part of our planning and also which goes into the first half year of '24.

其次，是的，我認為特別是在歐洲，而且在德國，你會看到中型企業、家族企業，你會看到貸款增長疲軟和暫時需求減少，特別是，當涉及長期投資時。老實說，我不認為這種情況會持續很長時間。但我想說的是，這些公司希望了解未來 6 到 12 個月的發展情況。因此，我想說，我們將在 23 年下半年看到這種相當疲軟的貸款增長，這是我們計劃的一部分，也會進入 24 年上半年。

Nevertheless, and therefore, again, it is so important that we build the Corporate Bank on various engines. And the other engines are the fee income, our cash management mandates. The card business I was just talking about before. And that actually gives us all the confidence that even with the softening demand, which in my view is only temporary and will come back we can actually compensate that with fee business, and that is the reason why we invested into that so much.

儘管如此，因此再次強調，我們在不同的引擎上建立企業銀行是非常重要的。其他引擎是費用收入，我們的現金管理要求。剛才我講的卡業務。這實際上給了我們所有人信心，即使需求疲軟，在我看來，這只是暫時的，並且會回來，我們實際上可以通過收費業務來彌補，這就是我們投入如此多的原因。

The last question is from the line of Amit Goel with Barclays.

最後一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的阿米特·戈爾 (Amit Goel)。

Yes. Two questions. One, just coming back on the asset quality. I think, obviously, that's the commentary about there's no sign of persistent deterioration, although there was some softening in German mid-cap sectors, including automotive. I was just kind of curious what gives you the confidence that it's not persistent deterioration and/or are you changing any behavior or your credit that you provide into that space?

是的。兩個問題。第一，回到資產質量。我認為，顯然，這是關於沒有持續惡化跡象的評論，儘管包括汽車在內的德國中型股行業出現了一些疲軟。我只是有點好奇是什麼讓您有信心這不是持續惡化和/或您是否正在改變您在該領域提供的任何行為或信用？

And then secondly, just -- I guess, just to help my understanding. But in terms of pass-through rates, so for the NIM. What are the factors that are kind of driving the lower pass-through rates. I appreciate maybe there's some conservative assumptions. But what are the things that you think will drive changes or kind of increase in pass-through as we kind of go through time. So just curious what are the factors that you think are influencing pass-through at the moment and into the second half of the year.

其次，我想，只是為了幫助我理解。但就傳遞率而言，NIM 也是如此。導致通過率較低的因素有哪些？我很欣賞也許有一些保守的假設。但是，隨著時間的推移，您認為哪些因素會推動變化或傳遞增加？所以只是好奇您認為目前和下半年影響傳遞的因素是什麼。

Thank you for your questions. Let me start on the asset quality because I'm also in a lot of client contact actually also in Germany, obviously. A, I really do believe, and I said it again and again, but the resilience of the family-owned companies and the mid-cap companies in Germany is bigger than a lot of people think. If I think about how they actually improved from the 2008 global financial crisis, if you think about how they actually increased capital, how they improve their working capital systems, their liquidity. This is a completely different picture than it was 15 years ago. And I'm saying it because they go with a different buffer into the situation which we have right now. And that's also what we are seeing not only in our portfolio. But if you actually look at the overall statistics, there is no such thing like a material deterioration in the credit worthiness of the German mid-cap companies.

謝謝您的提問。讓我從資產質量開始，因為顯然我也在德國接觸了很多客戶。答：我真的相信，而且我一遍又一遍地說過，但德國的家族企業和中型企業的韌性比很多人想像的要大。如果我想想他們實際上是如何從 2008 年全球金融危機中得到改善的，如果你想想他們實際上是如何增加資本的，他們如何改善他們的營運資本系統和流動性的。這與15年前完全不同。我這麼說是因為他們對我們現在的情況採取了不同的緩衝措施。這也是我們不僅在我們的投資組合中看到的。但如果你真正看一下整體統計數據，就會發現德國中型企業的信用度並沒有出現實質性惡化。

Now what is then specifically on us, and I do believe even go further back to Deutsche Bank's history in 2002 and 2003 when we actually had too many credit losses in that area. We completely changed the way we are managing credit risk also for medium and family-owned corporates when it comes to concentration risk when it comes to differentiating between, sort of, say, winners and potential companies which are more challenged in certain industries, we have a clear industry view and not only the specific company view. And by that, I think our risk management to the individual review of corporate is simply a superior one.

現在我們面臨的具體情況是什麼，我相信甚至可以追溯到德意志銀行 2002 年和 2003 年的歷史，當時我們在該領域實際上有太多的信貸損失。我們徹底改變了管理中型和家族企業信用風險的方式，在集中風險方面，在區分贏家和在某些行業面臨更大挑戰的潛在公司時，我們有清晰的行業觀點而不僅僅是特定公司的觀點。由此看來，我認為我們對企業個人審查的風險管理是非常出色的。

And I personally just went last week through the -- for instance, the OEM suppliers in Germany. If I look at the portfolio, how diversified we are from a rating point of view, from a concentration risk point of view, i.e., that there are no big concentration risk. If we have larger risk, it's actually with investment-grade companies, who are actually themselves diversified globally in their business, then I do believe that there may be a little bit of deterioration in that portfolio, but I can't see that we are coming into a situation where I would see a material deterioration of our mid-cap portfolio. So looking at their own resilience and the way we have risk managed that, I'm confident that, obviously, our portfolio is in good health. James?

我個人上周剛剛瀏覽了德國的 OEM 供應商。如果我看看投資組合，從評級的角度來看，從集中風險的角度來看，我們的多元化程度如何，即不存在很大的集中風險。如果我們面臨更大的風險，實際上是投資級公司，這些公司實際上本身在全球範圍內進行多元化業務，那麼我確實相信該投資組合可能會出現一點惡化，但我不認為我們會出現這種情況。我會看到我們的中型股投資組合出現實質性惡化。因此，看看他們自己的彈性以及我們風險管理的方式，我相信我們的投資組合顯然狀況良好。詹姆士？

So on pass-through, it's an interesting topic. And in some ways, it's going to be too early to tell. So we'll all sort of do the analysis of this cycle once it's over. I think a few things. One, I think the dollar -- it's different by currency. I think the dollar has started to converge perhaps not to model but to a place that looks to us to potentially be where things settle out. A little bit better than the models would have expected. The euro is still well behind.

所以關於傳遞，這是一個有趣的話題。從某些方面來說，現在下結論還為時過早。因此，一旦這個週期結束，我們都會對此週期進行分析。我想有幾件事。第一，我認為美元——它因貨幣而異。我認為美元已經開始趨同，也許不是為了建模，而是為了我們認為事情可能會解決的地方。比模型預期的要好一點。歐元仍遠遠落後。

What's driving that? I think there's discipline -- pricing discipline in the industry. I think there's an element of this cycle is different because of how sharp and how steep and how fast it was. I think there's an element that the banking industry had a long time of negative and is seeking to recover some of that sort of lost structural profitability. And I think client behavior is also a piece of the puzzle here.

是什麼推動了這一點？我認為這個行業有紀律——定價紀律。我認為這個週期有一個元素是不同的，因為它有多尖銳、有多陡峭以及有多快。我認為有一個因素是銀行業長期處於負增長狀態，並且正在尋求恢復部分結構性盈利能力的損失。我認為客戶行為也是這裡的一個難題。

Obviously, there -- especially the more you go to wholesale money, they're smart enough to move their money to places that it earns a higher yield and -- but then they also know they need to leave a certain amount of money with the banks, and they understand that the remuneration of that for payments and operational purposes. And I understand that remuneration for that money is -- doesn't follow the market because there are services attached to it.

顯然，尤其是當你更多地進行批發資金時，他們足夠聰明，可以將資金轉移到收益率更高的地方，而且他們也知道他們需要留下一定數量的錢銀行，他們了解支付和運營目的的報酬。我知道這筆錢的報酬並不遵循市場，因為它附帶服務。

So I think that's an understanding of the business model that's maybe better than it has been in the past. So lots of different drivers we'll need to unpack in time, but one that I think is overall a bullish sign for the industry of the value that banks, frankly, are providing to their clients, not just in corporate and middle market but also in the retail space.

所以我認為這對商業模式的理解可能比過去更好。因此，我們需要及時解開許多不同的驅動因素，但我認為，坦率地說，這對整個行業來說是一個看漲的信號，銀行正在為其客戶提供價值，不僅在企業和中間市場，而且在在零售領域。

So thank you very much for your interest and questions. If there are any further questions you have, please reach out to the Investor Relations department and have a good day.

非常感謝您的興趣和提問。如果您還有任何其他問題，請聯繫投資者關係部門，祝您一切順利。

Ladies and gentlemen, the conference has now concluded, and you may disconnect your telephone. Thank you very much for joining, and have a pleasant day. Goodbye.

女士們、先生們，會議現已結束，你們可以掛斷電話了。非常感謝您的加入，祝您度過愉快的一天。再見。