Carvana Co (CVNA) 2022 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good afternoon, and welcome to the Carvana Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2022 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) Please note this event is being recorded.

下午好，歡迎參加 Carvana 2022 年第四季和全年財報電話會議。 （操作員指示）請注意，此事件正在被記錄。

I would now like to turn the conference over to Meg Kehan, Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

現在我想將會議交給投資者關係部的 Meg Kehan。請繼續。

Thank you, Gary. Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen, and thank you for joining us on Carvana's Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2022 Earnings Conference Call. Please note that this call will be simultaneously webcast on the Investor Relations section of the company's corporate website at investors.carvana.com. The fourth quarter shareholder letter is also posted on the IR website. Additionally, we posted a set of supplemental financial tables for Q4, which can be found on the Events and Presentations page of our IR website. Joining me on the call today are Ernie Garcia, Chief Executive Officer; and Mark Jenkins, Chief Financial Officer.

謝謝你，加里。女士們、先生們，下午好，感謝您參加 Carvana 2022 年第四季和全年收益電話會議。請注意，本次電話會議將在公司網站 investors.carvana.com 的投資者關係部分同時進行網路直播。第四季股東信函也發佈在 IR 網站上。此外，我們還發布了第四季度的補充財務表，可以在我們的 IR 網站的「活動和演示」頁面上找到。今天與我一起參加電話會議的還有執行長 Ernie Garcia；以及財務長馬克‧詹金斯 (Mark Jenkins)。

Before we start, I would like to remind you that the following discussion contains forward-looking statements within the meaning of the federal securities laws, including, but not limited to, Carvana's market opportunities and future financial results that involve risks and uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially from those discussed here. A detailed discussion of the material factors that cause actual results to differ from forward-looking statements can be found in the Risk Factors section of Carvana's most recent Form 10-K. The forward-looking statements and risks in this conference call are based on current expectations as of today, and Carvana assumes no obligation to update or revise them, whatsoever, as a result of new developments or otherwise.

在我們開始之前，我想提醒您，以下討論包含聯邦證券法含義內的前瞻性陳述，包括但不限於 Carvana 的市場機會和未來財務結果，這些陳述涉及風險和不確定性，可能導致實際結果與此處討論的結果存在重大差異。有關導致實際結果與前瞻性陳述不同的重大因素的詳細討論，請參閱 Carvana 最新的 10-K 表格中的風險因素部分。本次電話會議中的前瞻性陳述和風險是基於截至今天的當前預期，Carvana 不承擔因新的發展或其他原因而更新或修改這些陳述和風險的義務。

Our commentary today will include non-GAAP financial metrics. Unless otherwise specified, all references to GPU and SG&A will be to the non-GAAP metrics, and all references to EBITDA will be to adjusted EBITDA. Reconciliations between GAAP and non-GAAP metrics for our reported results can be found in our shareholder letter issued today, a copy of which can be found on our IR website.

我們今天的評論將包括非公認會計準則財務指標。除非另有說明，所有對 GPU 和 SG&A 的引用均為非 GAAP 指標，所有對 EBITDA 的引用均為調整後的 EBITDA。我們今天發布的股東信函中可以找到我們報告結果的 GAAP 和非 GAAP 指標之間的對賬，其副本可以在我們的 IR 網站上找到。

And now with that said, I'd like to turn the call over to Ernie Garcia. Ernie?

現在說了這麼多，我想把電話轉給厄尼·加西亞 (Ernie Garcia)。厄尼？

Thanks, Meg. And thanks, everyone, for joining the call. 10 years ago, in January 2013, we launched Carvana in Atlanta, Georgia. We were a passionate group of people who believe we could build something new in the world that we would be proud of. What we aim to do is simple: to change the way people buy and sell cars. There were a million little reasons to bet against us and most people who cared enough to even be aware of what we were trying to do would have. But there were 2 big reasons why we believe we could do it. One, there was room for new offering that customers would love. Two, we are a scrappy group who cared and we're ready to fight for our dream.

謝謝，梅格。感謝大家參加此次電話會議。 10 年前，也就是 2013 年 1 月，我們在喬治亞州亞特蘭大推出了 Carvana。我們是一群充滿熱情的人，我們相信我們可以在世界上創造一些令我們感到自豪的新事物。我們的目標很簡單：改變人們購買和銷售汽車的方式。有無數個小理由讓我們跟我們打賭，而大多數關心我們甚至知道我們在做什麼的人都會這麼做。但有兩個重要原因讓我們相信我們能夠做到。首先，還有空間提供顧客喜愛的新產品。二，我們是一群有愛心、有鬥志、願意為夢想而奮鬥的人。

We stand here 10 years later in a place where it was hard to imagine from where we started. We built an offering customers do love. We have brought that offering to over 300 markets across the country. We have bought and sold cars in a whole new way to millions of people, and we've laid the foundations to buy and sell many millions more.

十年後，我們站在這裡，站在一個我們原本難以想像的地方。我們打造了一款客戶喜愛的產品。我們已將產品推廣至全國 300 多個市場。我們以全新的方式向數百萬人買賣汽車，並為更多數百萬的汽車買賣奠定了基礎。

The big things overpowered the little things. This story skips a lot of time and as a result, it skips a lot of detail and gives too simple an impression. It feels linear. But the truth is there are a lot of ups and downs along the way. There were high highs and there were low lows. There were fun days and there were hard days. I think the truth of building something new in the world that there are usually more hard days than there are easy days, even though it doesn't sound that way in the stories. This is still true. Progress is rarely linear, and 2022 reminded us of that again.

大事戰勝小事。這個故事跳過了很多時間，因此跳過了很多細節，給人的印象過於簡單。感覺是線性的。但事實上，這一路上充滿了坎坷和曲折。有高潮，也有低潮。有快樂的日子，也有艱難的日子。我認為，在這個世界上創造新事物的真相是，困難的日子通常比輕鬆的日子多，儘管故事裡聽起來並非如此。這至今仍是事實。進步很少是線性的，2022 年再次提醒我們這一點。

So what happened in 2022? The story is straightforward. One, we came into the year positioned for growth, similar to what we had experienced in the prior 9 years. Two, after the pandemic snarled the automotive supply chains and historically rapidly rising interest rates combined to dramatically impact the affordability of used cars. Three, rising interest rates and market sentiment drove a significant shift in our priorities away from growth and toward profitability. Four, this combined to lead to markedly lower volumes than we had positioned for, and as a result, we've been carrying excess costs.

那麼 2022 年發生了什麼事？故事很簡單。首先，我們進入新的一年，並做好了成長的準備，這與過去九年的情況類似。二是疫情衝擊汽車供應鏈，加上歷史上快速上升的利率，對二手車的可負擔性產生了巨大影響。第三，利率和市場情緒的上升促使我們的優先事項從成長轉向獲利。第四，這些因素綜合起來導致我們的銷售量明顯低於預期，結果就是我們承擔了過高的成本。

2022 had a lot of hard days. But we're a scrappy group, and hard days aren't always the worst thing in the world for scrappy people. Scrappy people find a way, and we're finding a way. The hard days are making us better, and we're doing our best work right now. As part of this work, we have 3 major milestones that we are marching forward.

2022年有很多艱難的日子。但我們是一個鬥志昂揚的群體，對於鬥志昂揚的人來說，艱難的日子並不總是世界上最糟糕的事情。勇敢的人總能找到辦法，我們也在找辦法。艱難的日子讓我們變得更好，現在我們正在盡最大努力。作為這項工作的一部分，我們正朝著三個重要的里程碑邁進。

The first step is to drive the business to breakeven adjusted EBITDA. This is our current goal, and we will discuss the key drivers of this goal more in these remarks. The second step is to drive the business to significant positive unit economics. Breakeven adjusted EBITDA is a milestone, but it is not our goal. Our goal is positive free cash flow. The third step is to return to growth. Since launching in 2013, we have made capital investments of more than $4 billion, building the nation's largest used vehicle inspection and reconditioning infrastructure, first-party automotive logistics network and last mile automotive delivery network. We believe the investments we've already made laid the groundwork for not only significant growth in the future, but significantly more efficient growth that is significantly profitable.

第一步是推動業務達到收支平衡的調整後EBITDA。這是我們目前的目標，我們將在這些評論中進一步討論這一目標的關鍵驅動因素。第二步是推動業務實現顯著的正單位經濟效益。損益平衡調整後的 EBITDA 是一個里程碑，但這不是我們的目標。我們的目標是正的自由現金流。第三步，恢復成長。自 2013 年成立以來，我們已投入超過 40 億美元的資本，打造了全國最大的二手車檢測和修復基礎設施、第一方汽車物流網絡和最後一英里汽車配送網絡。我們相信，我們已經進行的投資不僅為未來的顯著成長奠定了基礎，而且為更有效率、更有利可圖的成長奠定了基礎。

Today, we're focused on the first step, and we are well on our way with high visibility on the progress we expect to make. First, we expect to continue our SG&A expense reduction plan by reducing quarterly SG&A expenses by approximately $100 million in aggregate over the next 2 quarters. This will complete over $1 billion annualized SG&A cost reduction since the first quarter of 2022. We expect these expense reductions to be broad-based across all large SG&A expense components. But importantly, we do not expect the future reduction for us to be part of this plan.

今天，我們專注於第一步，並且進展順利，我們預期的進展非常可觀。首先，我們預計將繼續執行銷售、一般及行政費用削減計劃，在未來兩個季度內將季度銷售、一般及行政費用總計削減約 1 億美元。這將使自 2022 年第一季以來，年度銷售、一般及行政費用 (SG&A) 成本削減超過 10 億美元。我們預計，這些費用削減將廣泛涵蓋所有大型銷售、一般及行政費用組成部分。但重要的是，我們不希望未來的減排成為該計劃的一部分。

Second, we expect our weekly retail unit sales volume to stabilize relative to the declines we saw in the second half of 2022 as the seasonal headwinds we faced at that time transitioned to seasonal tailwinds. Stabilizing weekly retail unit sales volume will allow our SG&A expense savings to catch up to retail unit volumes, allowing us to demonstrate SG&A leverage that was elusive during periods of retail unit declines.

其次，我們預計，隨著我們當時面臨的季節性逆風轉變為季節性順風，我們的每週零售單位銷售量將相對於 2022 年下半年的下降趨勢趨於穩定。穩定每週零售單位銷售量將使我們的銷售、一般及行政費用節省趕上零售單位銷量，使我們能夠展示在零售單位下滑期間難以捉摸的銷售、一般及行政費用槓桿。

Third, we expect a substantial reduction in our inventory size, which we accelerated in Q4 to lead to significant gains in retail GPU. While we don't expect to see meaningful gains on retail GPU in Q1, we expect to see the benefits of reducing inventory size become apparent in the following quarters.

第三，我們預計庫存規模將大幅減少，我們在第四季度加速了庫存減少的步伐，從而帶來了零售 GPU 的顯著增長。雖然我們預計第一季零售 GPU 不會顯著成長，但我們預計減少庫存規模的好處將在接下來的幾季顯現出來。

The progress we are making shows up first in operational metrics and then flows in the financial metrics later as those operational efficiencies get rolled out and utilized across the business. Across all operating groups, the operational progress we have already made and are continuing to make is significant.

我們所取得的進展首先體現在營運指標上，然後隨著這些營運效率在整個業務中推廣和應用，體現在財務指標上。在所有營運集團中，我們已經取得並正在繼續取得的營運進展是顯著的。

In logistics, our average delivery business is down 25% since early 2022. In market operations, we have built scheduling systems that currently allow us to pair over 1 out of 3 retail deliveries with a vehicle pickup, up from 1 out of 14 retail sales just 1 year ago. In customer care, our advocates are spending 40% less time in the phone per sale than they were in early 2022. And our vending machine pickup rates have more than doubled since the start of last year, with 40% of our customers nationwide now picking up their car a vending machine even though we only have vending machines in a subset of our markets. Importantly, we have done all this while improving quality of our customer experiences over the last 6 months.

在物流方面，自 2022 年初以來，我們的平均配送業務下降了 25%。在市場營運方面，我們建立了調度系統，目前可以將超過三分之一的零售配送與車輛提貨配對，而一年前，這一比例僅為每 14 筆零售銷售中就有 1 筆。在客戶服務方面，我們的擁護者在每筆銷售上花費的電話時間比 2022 年初減少了 40%。自去年年初以來，我們的自動販賣機提貨率增加了一倍多，儘管我們只在部分市場設有自動販賣機，但現在全國 40% 的客戶都透過自動販賣機取車。重要的是，在過去的六個月裡，我們在完成所有這些工作的同時，也提高了客戶體驗的品質。

As often the case when working through these transitions and when the operational progress is beginning to convert into financial progress, there are some onetime items and extrapolations that need to be made to really see the quality of the progress we are currently making. These are outlined in the shareholder letter, and Mark will provide some color on them as well, but the progress is really beginning to show up. This will continue to get clear and to require less explanation over time as we expect the combination of these 3 factors to lead a significantly improved adjusted EBITDA profitability over the next 2 quarters.

在進行這些轉變時以及當營運進度開始轉化為財務進展時，通常需要進行一些一次性的專案和推斷，才能真正了解我們目前正在取得的進展的品質。這些都在股東信中進行了概述，馬克也會對此進行一些說明，但進展確實開始顯現。隨著時間的推移，這一點將變得越來越清晰，需要的解釋也越來越少，因為我們預計這三個因素的結合將在未來兩個季度顯著提高調整後的 EBITDA 獲利能力。

2022 was a hard year, and we still have a lot of hard work in front of us to get to where we want to be. But we have a clear plan, and we are executing. This is still a 40 million unit a year market on average. We still have just 1% market share. We are still a passionate scrappy group who cares and who's ready to fight for our dream. Our customers do love our offering. We have built the capabilities and laid the foundations to buy and sell cars with millions and millions of customers, and there are still a million little reason to bet against us. We expect the big things to overpower the little things just as they have in the past. We are firmly on the path to building the nation's largest and most profitable automotive retailer and to achieving our mission of changing the way people buy cars. The march continues. Mark?

2022 年是艱難的一年，我們還有很多艱苦的工作要做才能達到我們想要的目標。但我們有一個明確的計劃，我們正在執行。這仍然是一個平均每年4000萬台的市場。我們的市佔率仍然只有1%。我們仍然是一個充滿熱情、充滿鬥志、關心他人並準備好為我們的夢想而奮鬥的群體。我們的客戶確實喜歡我們提供的產品。我們已經建立了能力並奠定了與數百萬客戶買賣汽車的基礎，但仍然有無數個理由讓我們失望。我們預期大事會壓倒小事，就像過去一樣。我們堅定地致力於打造全國最大、最賺錢的汽車零售商，並實現改變人們購買汽車方式的使命。遊行仍在繼續。標記？

Thank you, Ernie, and thank you all for joining us today. Our results in 2022 were driven by numerous external factors as well as our internal decisions made to shift priorities toward profitability. We came into 2022 significantly overbuilt for the volume we ultimately realized. Through the year, we have been executing our plan to drive profitability by steadily reducing expenses, normalizing inventory size and executing profitability initiatives that make us more efficient, more resilient and more flexible.

謝謝你，厄尼，也謝謝大家今天加入我們。我們 2022 年的業績受到眾多外部因素以及我們將重點轉向獲利能力的內部決策的影響。進入 2022 年，我們的建設量遠遠超出了我們最終實現的建設量。這一年，我們一直在執行提高盈利能力的計劃，透過穩步削減開支、規範庫存規模和實施盈利舉措，使我們更有效率、更有彈性、更靈活。

For the full year 2022, retail units sold totaled 412,296, a decrease of 3% year-over-year. While this was the first year that our retail units sold declined year-over-year, 2022 marked our ninth consecutive year of market share gains against the backdrop of double-digit industry declines. Revenue totaled $13.604 billion in 2022, an increase of 6% year-over-year, marking our ninth consecutive year of revenue growth.

2022 年全年零售銷售單位總數為 412,296 套，較去年同期下降 3%。雖然這是我們零售單位銷售量年減的第一年，但 2022 年標誌著我們在行業兩位數下滑的背景下連續第九年實現市場份額增長。 2022 年總營收達到 136.04 億美元，年增 6%，這是我們連續第九年實現營收成長。

We finished the year as the second largest seller of used vehicles in the country for the third consecutive year. The scale that we have already achieved and the time line on which we have achieved it demonstrates the long-standing strength of our customer offering. Due to the dynamic nature of the current environment, we will focus our remaining remarks on fourth quarter results with a particular focus on sequential changes and the unique items impacting the quarter as well as our near-term outlook.

我們連續第三年成為全國第二大二手車銷售商。我們已經達到的規模以及實現這一目標的時間線證明了我們為客戶提供的長期實力。由於當前環境的動態性質，我們將把剩餘的評論重點放在第四季度的業績上，特別關注連續的變化和影響本季的獨特項目以及我們的近期前景。

Our long-term financial goal is to generate significant net income and free cash flow. In service of this goal, in the near term, our management team is focused on driving progress on a set of non-GAAP financial metrics that are inputs into this long-term goal. In order to provide clear visibility into our progress, beginning in Q4, we are reporting 2 new non-GAAP metrics, non-GAAP gross profit and non-GAAP SG&A expense, that adjusts for certain noncash and nonrecurring revenues and expenses.

我們的長期財務目標是創造可觀的淨收入和自由現金流。為了實現這一目標，在短期內，我們的管理團隊將專注於推動一系列非公認會計準則財務指標的進展，這些指標是這一長期目標的投入。為了清楚了解我們的進展，從第四季度開始，我們將報告 2 個新的非 GAAP 指標，即非 GAAP 毛利和非 GAAP 銷售、一般及行政費用，以根據某些非現金和非經常性收入和支出進行調整。

We are also updating our adjusted EBITDA definition to exclude revenue from route warrants as well as share-based compensation and restructuring expenses. We provide more detail on these metrics in the supplemental financial tables available on the Events and Presentations page of our IR website and in our Form 10-K.

我們也更新了調整後的 EBITDA 定義，以排除航線權證收入以及股權激勵和重組費用。我們在 IR 網站的「活動和演示」頁面和 10-K 表中提供的補充財務表內提供了有關這些指標的更多詳細資訊。

In the fourth quarter, retail units sold totaled 86,977, a decrease of 23% year-over-year and 15% sequentially. Our sequential decline in retail units sold was only slightly larger than the industry's sequential decline of 12% despite several actions we are taking to increase near-term profitability, including: one, normalizing inventory size; two, reducing advertising; three, proactively adjusting to increases in benchmark interest rates; and four, continuing to focus on executing our profitability initiatives. Total revenue was $2.8 billion in Q4, a decrease of 24% year-over-year and 16% sequentially, approximately in line with retail units sold.

第四季，零售單位銷售總量為 86,977 套，年減 23%，季減 15%。儘管我們採取了多項措施來提高短期盈利能力，但我們零售銷量的環比下降幅度僅略高於行業 12% 的環比下降幅度，這些措施包括：一、使庫存規模正常化；二、減少廣告；三是主動適應基準利率上調；第四，繼續專注於執行我們的盈利計劃。第四季總營收為 28 億美元，年減 24%，季減 16%，與零售單位銷售量大致持平。

Non-GAAP total GPU was $2,667 in Q4 versus $3,870 in Q3. Total GPU in Q4 was driven by several unique items across the retail, wholesale and other components. Non-GAAP retail GPU was $632 in Q4 versus $1,267 in Q3. Retail GPU was impacted by a $52 million or $598 per unit adjustment to our retail inventory allowance, which was primarily driven by elevated industry-wide retail depreciation rates and higher than normalized inventory size relative to sales volumes. Other sequential changes in retail GPU were primarily driven by higher retail depreciation rates, partially offset by wider spreads between retail prices and acquisition prices and lower cost of sales.

第四季非公認會計準則 GPU 總成本為 2,667 美元，而第三季為 3,870 美元。第四季度的總 GPU 受到零售、批發和其他組成部分的幾個獨特項目推動。第四季非 GAAP 零售 GPU 價格為 632 美元，而第三季為 1,267 美元。零售 GPU 受到我們零售庫存準備金 5,200 萬美元或每單位 598 美元調整的影響，這主要是由於全行業零售折舊率上升以及相對於銷售量高於正常水平的庫存規模所致。零售 GPU 的其他連續變化主要受零售折舊率上升所驅動，但零售價格與收購價格之間的價差擴大以及銷售成本下降部分抵消了這一變化。

In addition to the allowance adjustment, retail GPU was also impacted by carrying a higher than normalized inventory size relative to sales, which resulted in longer turn times. Longer turn times lead to higher vehicle depreciation, which has a negative impact on retail GPU, other things being equal. One way to quantify the impact of extended turn times is to isolate retail GPU for vehicles sold within 90 days of the acquisition date. These vehicles realize approximately $600 per unit higher retail GPU in Q4 compared to retail units in aggregate.

除了津貼調整之外，零售 GPU 還受到庫存規模相對於銷售量高於正常水平的影響，導致周轉時間更長。週轉時間越長，車輛折舊率就越高，在其他條件相同的情況下，這會對零售 GPU 產生負面影響。量化延長週轉時間的影響的一種方法是隔離在收購日期後 90 天內售出的車輛的零售 GPU。與整體零售單位相比，這些車輛在第四季度每單位零售 GPU 的價格高出約 600 美元。

Non-GAAP wholesale GPU was $552 in Q4 versus $682 in Q3. Wholesale GPU included a combined $103 per unit impact due to a $5 million adjustment to our wholesale inventory allowance and a $4 million loss on certain retail vehicles we sold in the wholesale market in the quarter. Sequential changes in wholesale GPU were primarily driven by these impacts and lower seasonal wholesale marketplace volume.

第四季非公認會計準則 GPU 批發價格為 552 美元，而第三季為 682 美元。批發 GPU 的綜合影響為每單位 103 美元，這是由於我們對批發庫存限額進行了 500 萬美元的調整，以及本季度我們在批發市場銷售的某些零售車輛損失了 400 萬美元。批發 GPU 的連續變化主要是由這些影響和季節性批發市場交易量的下降所驅動的。

Non-GAAP other GPU was $1,483 in Q4 and versus $1,921 in Q3. Other GPU was primarily impacted by a shift in the timing of a sale of a pool of loans to Ally from December to January to align with the upsize and extension of our forward flow purchase agreement. We estimate this shift in timing reduced other gross profit by $42 million or $483 per retail unit sold based on the actual sales price of the loans we realized in January, less incremental interest income we earned on the loans in December.

第四季非公認會計準則其他 GPU 為 1,483 美元，而第三季為 1,921 美元。其他 GPU 主要受到向 Ally 出售貸款池的時間從 12 月推遲到 1 月的影響，以配合我們遠期流動購買協議的擴大和延長。我們估計，根據我們 1 月實現的貸款實際銷售價格減去 12 月貸款所獲得的增量利息收入，這種時間變化將導致其他毛利減少 4,200 萬美元，即每售出一個零售單位減少 483 美元。

In Q4, we made significant progress reducing SG&A expenses for the second consecutive quarter, reducing non-GAAP SG&A expense by $60 million sequentially, following a greater than $60 million sequential reduction in Q3. These expense reductions were broad-based, including advertising, compensation and benefits, logistics and other.

在第四季度，我們連續第二個季度在降低銷售、一般及行政費用方面取得了重大進展，繼第三季度環比減少 6,000 萬美元以上之後，非 GAAP 銷售、一般及行政費用環比減少 6,000 萬美元。這些費用削減範圍廣泛，包括廣告、薪資和福利、物流和其他。

While we significantly reduced SG&A expense over the past 2 quarters, we have not yet meaningfully levered SG&A expense per retail unit sold because retail units sold have declined at a pace similar to SG&A expense reductions. As Ernie discussed, we expect our weekly retail unit sales volume to stabilize relative to the declines we saw in the second half of 2022 as seasonal headwinds transition to seasonal tailwinds. We expect stabilizing retail unit sales to allow our SG&A expense savings to catch up to retail unit volumes leading to SG&A leverage.

雖然我們在過去兩個季度大幅降低了銷售、一般及行政費用 (SG&A)，但我們尚未顯著提高每銷售單位零售額的銷售、一般及行政費用，因為零售單位銷售額的下降速度與銷售、一般及行政費用的下降速度相似。正如 Ernie 所討論的，隨著季節性逆風轉變為季節性順風，我們預計每週零售單位銷售量將相對於 2022 年下半年的下降趨勢趨於穩定。我們預期穩定的零售單位銷售額將使我們的銷售、一般及行政費用節省趕上零售單位數量，從而帶來銷售、一般及行政費用槓桿。

Adjusted EBITDA in Q4 was a loss of $291 million or 10.1% of revenue. Adjusted EBITDA was negatively impacted by a total of $103 million due to the unique retail, wholesale and other GPU items described above.

第四季調整後的 EBITDA 虧損 2.91 億美元，佔營收的 10.1%。由於上述獨特的零售、批發和其他 GPU 項目，調整後的 EBITDA 受到總計 1.03 億美元的負面影響。

Finally, as a result of the decline in trading prices of our securities by the end of the fourth quarter, we recorded a goodwill impairment expense of $847 million. The goodwill impairment was not related to changes in our long-term expectations for our business or the operations of any prior acquisitions.

最後，由於第四季末我們的證券交易價格下跌，我們記錄了 8.47 億美元的商譽減損費用。商譽減損與我們對業務的長期預期變化或任何先前收購的營運無關。

As we've discussed previously, our goal is to manage the business to achieve over 4,000 total GPU and significant adjusted EBITDA profitability at current higher or lower volume levels. Focusing in on Q1 2023, we currently expect the following. On retail units, we currently expect the sequential reduction in retail units sold in Q1 compared to Q4 as we continue to normalize our inventory size, optimize marketing spend and make progress on our profitability initiatives. On GPU, we currently expect a sequential increase in total GPU in Q1 compared to Q4. We expect retail GPU to increase in Q1 due to multiple offsetting effects.

正如我們之前所討論的，我們的目標是管理業務，以實現超過 4,000 個 GPU 和顯著的調整後 EBITDA 盈利能力，無論當前產量水平如何。著眼於 2023 年第一季度，我們目前預期如下。就零售單位而言，我們目前預計第一季的零售單位銷售將與第四季度相比連續減少，因為我們將繼續規範庫存規模、優化行銷支出並在盈利計劃方面取得進展。在 GPU 方面，我們目前預計第一季的 GPU 總量將比第四季環比增加。由於多重抵消效應，我們預計零售 GPU 將在第一季成長。

First, we are quickly reducing our inventory size by purchasing fewer retail vehicles. Purchasing fewer retail vehicles means fewer low age units are added to the website, which other things being equal, increases the average age of our inventory and of retail units sold and reduces retail GPU. At the same time, we expect our lower inventory size to lead to a retail inventory allowance adjustment benefit in Q1, leading total Q1 retail GPU to be higher than Q4. We also expect a sequential increase in other GPU in Q1, following the shift in the timing of loan sales from December to January previously discussed.

首先，我們透過減少零售車輛的採購來迅速減少庫存規模。購買更少的零售車輛意味著添加到網站上的低年齡單位會更少，在其他條件相同的情況下，這會增加我們庫存和銷售的零售單位的平均年齡，並降低零售 GPU。同時，我們預期較低的庫存規模將導致第一季零售庫存摺扣調整收益，使第一季零售 GPU 總量高於第四季。我們也預計，隨著先前討論的貸款銷售時間從 12 月轉移到 1 月，第一季其他 GPU 也將環比成長。

On SG&A, we are currently targeting an aggregate of approximately $1 million reduction in quarterly non-GAAP SG&A expense by Q2 2023 compared to Q4 2022 as we continue to execute our plan across all areas of the business.

在銷售、一般及行政費用方面，我們目前的目標是到 2023 年第二季度，與 2022 年第四季相比，季度非 GAAP 銷售、一般及行政費用總計減少約 100 萬美元，同時我們將繼續在所有業務領域執行我們的計劃。

On December 31, we had approximately $3.9 billion in total liquidity resources, including $1.9 billion in cash and revolving availability and $2 billion in unpledged real estate and other assets, including more than $1.1 billion of real estate acquired with ADESA. We also ended the quarter with approximately 1.3 million annual units of inspection and reconditioning center capacity at full utilization, including ADESA locations. Over the last several years, we've made significant investments into building out one of the auto industry's largest and most expansive inspection and reconditioning network.

截至 12 月 31 日，我們的總流動資金資源約為 39 億美元，其中包括 19 億美元的現金和循環可用資金以及 20 億美元的未抵押房地產和其他資產，其中包括與 ADESA 一起收購的價值超過 11 億美元的房地產。本季結束時，包括 ADESA 中心在內，我們的檢查和修復中心年產能已達到約 130 萬台，全部利用。在過去的幾年裡，我們投入了大量資金，打造了汽車行業最大、最廣泛的檢查和修復網路之一。

While we remain focused on more efficiently leveraging our existing footprint in the near term, we believe having access to this massive infrastructure positions us very well for growth with limited incremental investment in the future. Our liquidity position, production runway and our clear and focused operating plan position us well to achieve our goal of driving positive cash flow and becoming the largest and most profitable auto retailer in the future.

雖然我們仍然專注於在短期內更有效地利用我們現有的資源，但我們相信，擁有這龐大的基礎設施將使我們在未來以有限的增量投資實現良好的成長。我們的流動性狀況、生產跑道以及清晰而專注的營運計劃使我們能夠實現推動正現金流並成為未來最大、最賺錢的汽車零售商的目標。

Thank you for your attention. We will now take questions.

感謝您的關注。我們現在開始回答問題。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question is from Sharon Zackfia with William Blair.

（操作員指示）我們的第一個問題來自 William Blair 的 Sharon Zackfia。

Ernie, you were talking really fast. But I think you said 40% of vehicles were picked up at vending machines. I think it was in the fourth quarter. I didn't catch what that compared to maybe relative to a year ago? And I guess were you incentivizing to get to that number? It also begs the question, kind of how high could that go? What is the kind of trade-off in terms of GPU when you get a customer to come to vending machine for pickup? And I noticed in the shareholder letter, you also mentioned starting to offer a pickup at non-vending machine locations. So I guess this is a long question to just ask, are we seeing some sort of evolution in the model, which would be kind of more what I would think of as an omnichannel model versus a pure e-com?

厄尼，你說話真快。但我認為您說過 40% 的車輛是在自動販賣機上售出的。我認為是在第四季。我沒明白這跟一年前相比有什麼差別？我猜您是否有動力去達到這個數字？這也引出了一個問題：這個數字可以多高？當您讓顧客來到自動販賣機取貨時，在 GPU 方面需要做出什麼樣的權衡？我注意到在致股東的信中，您也提到開始在非自動販賣機地點提供取貨服務。所以我想這是一個很長的問題，我們是否看到了模型的某種演變，這更像是我所認為的全通路模式而不是純粹的電子商務模式？

Sure. So first, apologies for the fast talking. That is my habit. And so in the prepared remarks, I didn't compare it to anything. It is 40% nationwide at vending machines, even though we only have vending machines in a subset of markets, and that is roughly double since early 2022. We are testing other pickup options as well, and we are incentivizing customers to do that.

當然。首先，我要為我的快速演講道歉。這是我的習慣。因此，在準備好的發言中，我沒有將其與任何事物進行比較。儘管我們只在部分市場設有自動販賣機，但全國範圍內的自動販賣機覆蓋率為 40%，自 2022 年初以來，這一比例大約翻了一番。我們也在測試其他取貨方式，並鼓勵顧客這樣做。

And what I would say there is, I think across the entire business, we're testing all kinds of opportunities to decrease our operational costs and then see what the impact is to both customer speed of getting them a car and also customer experience, and I think this is one of many areas where we're seeing really strong results there.

我想說的是，我認為在整個業務範圍內，我們正在測試各種機會來降低營運成本，然後看看這對客戶取車速度和客戶體驗有何影響，我認為這是我們看到非常強勁成果的眾多領域之一。

Can I just ask a follow-up? So when you do customer research, I mean how important is delivery and what the customers want? I mean I would assume transparency, quality of car, the car they're getting. All of that is very important. But is delivery really high on the list?

我可以問一個後續問題嗎？因此，當您進行客戶研究時，我的意思是交付有多重要以及客戶想要什麼？我的意思是我會假設透明度、汽車的品質以及他們所得到的汽車。所有這些都非常重要。但送貨真的排在第一位嗎？

I think it depends on the customer, and I think that's why we've kind of structured the system to give them their option. So I think all of those things are important. And I think the easiest thing that we can measure is, in aggregate, how customers are responding to the sum total of their experience. And we are talking now about the vending machine, but there's many other examples there that I'll repeat that I kind of spoke about in my prepared remarks.

我認為這取決於客戶，我認為這就是我們建立這個系統來為客戶給予選擇的原因。所以我認為所有這些都很重要。我認為，我們可以衡量的最簡單的事情是，總體而言，客戶對他們的整體體驗的反應如何。我們現在談論的是自動販賣機，但還有很多其他的例子，我會重複我在準備好的發言中談到的。

Delivery distance is also down 25% since early 2022. We talked about activity pairings. That can be a bit of a confusing one to make sure you are understanding. But we've got -- obviously, many customers that are buying cars from us. We have many customers that are selling cars to us. And so activity pairing is building the logic into our schedule that allows us to ensure that when a customer leaves a hub or a vending machine, they can complete 2 transactions in a single path, which is obviously a lot more efficient. That's gone from about 1 in 14 customers to approximately 1 out of 3 customers in the last year.

自 2022 年初以來，配送距離也減少了 25%。我們討論了活動配對。這可能會有點令人困惑，請確保您理解。但顯然，有很多客戶從我們這裡購買汽車。我們有許多客戶向我們出售汽車。因此，活動配對正在將邏輯建置到我們的日程安排中，使我們能夠確保當客戶離開樞紐或自動販賣機時，他們可以在一條路徑中完成兩筆交易，這顯然效率更高。去年，這一比例從大約每 14 名客戶中就有 1 名增加到大約每 3 名客戶中就有 1 名。

So we're making gains all over the place. And we are seeing that really show up in operational gains first, which then I think you're starting to get a peek into the impact they'll have financially, but that does take more time. So we tend to roll these out in markets. We get a sense for the impact of both customer experience and cost and efficiency, and then we roll them out nationwide, and then we kind of are able to realize the dollar gains thereafter.

因此我們在各方面都取得了進展。我們看到這首先體現在營運收益上，然後我認為你開始了解到它們對財務的影響，但這確實需要更多時間。因此我們傾向於在市場上推出這些產品。我們了解客戶體驗、成本和效率的影響，然後我們在全國推廣這些措施，之後我們就能實現美元收益。

So I think you'll probably start to see more of those gains over the next 2 quarters, which is why we're feeling really good about our cost reduction plan over the next 2 quarters. But we've been doing all of that and many, many more examples that would fit under the same umbrella. But we take different forms in every group, and we've seen customer experiences go up in the last 6 months. So I think overall, we're really excited about the way that's playing out. We still have a lot of work to do, but the team is doing a great job.

因此我認為您可能會在接下來的兩個季度開始看到更多的收益，這就是為什麼我們對未來兩個季度的成本削減計劃感到非常滿意。但我們一直在做所有這些事情，而且還有很多很多可以歸入同一範疇的例子。但我們在每個小組都採取了不同的形式，我們看到客戶體驗在過去 6 個月中有所改善。所以我認為總的來說，我們對事情的進展感到非常興奮。我們還有很多工作要做，但團隊做得很好。

Okay. Last question for me. I know you said you're working towards EBITDA breakeven at current volumes. What's your line of sight on timing on that?

好的。我的最後一個問題。我知道您說過您正在努力在當前銷售下實現 EBITDA 收支平衡。您對於時間安排有何看法？

As fast as possible. I think we're going to be moving as quickly as we possibly can. We gave, I think, some hopefully helpful guide rails in there around driving down SG&A dollars by $100 million over the next 2 quarters. I think Mark spoke quite a bit about some of the GPU visibility that we have that is very high.

越快越好。我認為我們將盡可能快地採取行動。我認為，我們提供了一些有用的指導方針，以便在未來兩個季度內將銷售、一般和行政費用降低 1 億美元。我認為馬克已經多次談到了我們擁有的一些非常高的 GPU 可見度。

Something that is imposing a very significant cost across GPU right now is the choice to drive down our inventory rapidly. We're very confident that's the right choice for the business. Sales volumes are low relative to the inventory that we're carrying and, therefore, turn times are high. And especially in a high depreciation environment, it's important to get those 2 things in balance, but the transition from 2 large inventory to the right size of inventory means that turn times are even longer. That showed up in lower GPU in the quarter and in an allowance that we're taking as more of those cars that we expect to sell in the future are likely to have negative margins.

目前，對 GPU 造成巨大成本的因素是選擇迅速減少庫存。我們非常有信心，這對企業來說是正確的選擇。相對於我們所持有的庫存而言，銷售量較低，因此週轉時間較長。特別是在高折舊環境中，平衡這兩者非常重要，但從 2 個大型庫存到適當規模的庫存的轉變意味著週轉時間會更長。這體現在本季的 GPU 較低以及我們採取的補貼中，因為我們預計未來銷售的更多汽車可能會出現負利潤率。

So that's a transitory cost. If you look at the rate at which we're selling cars relative to the cars that we have in inventory, it's a much better number, but the transition is expensive. So I think there's a lot of visibility there. Mark also spoke a bit about the visibility we have in finance as we had a loan sale timing shift in Q4 that was costly. So I think there's hopefully a lot of building blocks there that will give you a sense. And our goal is head down sprint, and we'll get there as quickly as we can.

所以這只是暫時的成本。如果你看我們銷售汽車相對於庫存汽車的速度，你會發現這個數字要好得多，但轉型成本很高。所以我認為那裡的可見度很高。馬克也談到了我們在財務方面的透明度，因為我們在第四季度的貸款銷售時間發生了變化，這造成了巨大的成本。所以我認為那裡有很多構建模組可以給你一種感覺。我們的目標是全力衝刺，盡快到達目標。

The next question is from Chris Bottiglieri with Exane BNP Paribas.

下一個問題來自法國巴黎銀行證券部的 Chris Bottiglieri。

The first one is, in Q1, are you still taking provisions to increase the inventory allowance adjustment that's causing pressure retail GPU and wholesale? Is there a way to frame how much is left? Like what percentage of units are 90 days or older? And they're still in inventory today? And what's normal? Looks like I imagine this happens routinely, but just give us context for what's left.

第一個問題是，在第一季度，您是否仍在採取措施增加庫存摺扣調整，從而給零售 GPU 和批發帶來壓力？有沒有辦法確定剩餘數量？例如有多少百分比的單位期限為 90 天或更久？現在還有庫存嗎？那什麼是正常的呢？看起來我想像這種情況經常發生，但只是給我們剩下的內容的背景。

Sure. So I mean, I think the -- I think there's a couple of different ways to think about that. One, I wouldn't say there is any concept of what's left. I think we -- to set the allowance on 12/31, we looked at the cars that we had on balance sheet on 12/31. And then we formed expectations about the cars that we're going to sell at a loss and at what level those cars we're going to sell at a loss, and then we recorded that allowance on that basis.

當然。所以我的意思是，我認為——我認為有幾種不同的方式來思考這個問題。首先，我不會說有任何關於還剩下什麼的概念。我認為，為了在 12 月 31 日設定津貼，我們查看了 12 月 31 日資產負債表上的汽車數量。然後，我們對將要虧本出售的汽車以及虧本出售的汽車的水平形成了預期，然後我們在此基礎上記錄了該補貼。

I do think some of the things that benefit the inventory allowance is inventory size. I think shrinking inventory, getting inventory more in line with sales volume. Those are certainly beneficial from the standpoint of retail inventory allowance. As you sort of alluded to, a retail inventory allowance is something that's always in our results. We adjust our allowance every month, and retail inventory allowance is reflected in our results every quarter. It just happened to be particularly large on 12/31 in light of the dynamics that we saw in Q4 with much higher than normalized inventory size and also very elevated industry-wide retail depreciation rates. So that's why it had an outsized effect on Q4.

我確實認為對庫存限額有利的一些因素是庫存規模。我認為減少庫存，使庫存與銷售量更加一致。從零售庫存摺扣的角度來看，這些無疑是有益的。正如您所提到的，零售庫存摺扣始終存在於我們的業績中。我們每個月都會調整我們的配額，零售庫存配額每季都會反映在我們的業績中。鑑於我們在第四季度看到的動態，這一數字恰好在 12 月 31 日特別大，庫存規模遠高於正常水平，而且全行業的零售折舊率也非常高。這就是它對第四季度產生巨大影響的原因。

I think just to take that point home, I do think we've made really strong moves in normalizing our inventory size in Q4 and so far in Q1. Our inventory size is much closer to a normal size relative to sales volumes than certainly it was in Q4. And we do think that over time, that will flow into positive tailwinds for retail GPU as we called out throughout our materials.

我想，為了強調這一點，我確實認為我們在第四季度和第一季迄今為止在正常化庫存規模方面已經做出了非常有力的舉措。我們的庫存規模相對於銷售量而言更接近正常規模，而第四季的庫存規模則沒有這麼高。我們確實認為，隨著時間的推移，這將為零售 GPU 帶來積極的推動力，正如我們在整個材料中所呼籲的那樣。

Got you. Okay. And then just a bigger picture question. If I can squeeze one more in. When you're speaking to these profitability at current levels, are you extrapolating market share of your immature markets to like some natural run rate of the mature business? Because I think your national market share compared to Atlanta or some of the early market at a similar point in time. Was Atlanta profitable on that penetration? Like I guess what gives you the visibility to achieve profitability at such a low volume level? I think personally, you get well above that over time, so I'm not sure why this profitability level frankly matters in the near term, but just curious how you're thinking about all that.

明白了。好的。接下來是一個更大的問題。如果我可以再擠一個的話。當您談到當前水平的盈利能力時，您是否會推斷不成熟市場的市場份額就像成熟業務的某些自然運行率一樣？因為我認為你們的全國市場份額與亞特蘭大或類似時間點的一些早期市場相比有所提高。亞特蘭大從這次滲透中獲利了嗎？我想問一下，是什麼讓您能夠在如此低的交易量水平下實現盈利？我個人認為，隨著時間的推移，你會遠遠超過這個水平，所以我不確定為什麼這個盈利水平在短期內很重要，但我只是好奇你是如何看待這一切的。

Sure. Yes. So I mean, I think we mean that in the simplest way it can be interpreted, which is we believe that we can achieve EBITDA positive at the current volumes that we're at across the entire company. We're not extrapolating to kind of market shares that we have in some more mature markets. We're making a ton of progress on SG&A, and there's room for a ton more progress, frankly, given all the operational gains that we're seeing, and there's a lot of visibility in GPU progress as well.

當然。是的。所以我的意思是，我認為我們可以用最簡單的方式來解釋，那就是我們相信我們可以在整個公司目前的業務量下實現 EBITDA 為正。我們不會推斷出我們在一些更成熟的市場中所擁有的市場份額。我們在銷售、一般及行政開支 (SG&A) 方面取得了巨大進展，坦白說，考慮到我們看到的所有營運收益，我們還有很大的進步空間，而且 GPU 方面的進展也非常明顯。

So I think this last year has been massive change in priorities for the company. The world changed on us very, very quickly. And we shifted our priorities very, very quickly. And undoubtedly, that's been a difficult transition. But I think there's no doubt that it's leading to a more efficient company. I think that is not yet fully showing up in the numbers, but there's no doubt it's showing up very clearly in the operational numbers, and we expect it to show up in the numbers in the not-too-distant future.

所以我認為去年公司的優先事項發生了巨大變化。世界在我們身上發生了非常、非常快的變化。我們非常迅速地改變了我們的優先事項。毫無疑問，這是一個艱難的轉變。但我認為毫無疑問這將使公司變得更有效率。我認為這還沒有完全體現在數字上，但毫無疑問，這在營運數字上已經非常明顯地體現出來了，我們預計在不久的將來它就會體現在數字上。

So we believe that we can get to EBITDA positivity at current volumes and to significantly positive EBITDA at current volumes, and then we obviously expect to continue to grow from there and to get even more EBITDA positive on a unit basis from there as well. So I think we've got a lot of work in front of us, but we've got a lot of great visibility as well.

因此，我們相信，我們可以在當前交易量下實現正 EBITDA，並在當前交易量下實現顯著正 EBITDA，然後我們顯然期望從那裡繼續增長，並從那裡在單位基礎上獲得更多正 EBITDA。所以我認為我們面前有很多工作要做，但我們也擁有很高的知名度。

Next question is from Rajat Gupta with JPMorgan.

下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Rajat Gupta。

Great. Ernie, I think the elephant in the room is the $600 million or so of interest expense even if you get to EBITDA breakeven at some point next year or later next year. You also need to add more debt at some stage to continue to just pay the ongoing additional debt. Is there anything you can do or considering to use that burden, perhaps some form of restructuring that can take place, leveraging the real estate and find some sort of a middle ground with the bondholders? Just curious what level of engagement you have there. Any broader thoughts on that? And I have a follow-up.

偉大的。厄尼，我認為一個顯而易見的問題是，即使你在明年某個時候或明年晚些時候實現 EBITDA 收支平衡，也需要支付 6 億美元左右的利息費用。您還需要在某個階段增加更多債務以繼續償還持續的額外債務。您能做什麼或考慮利用這個負擔嗎，也許可以進行某種形式的重組，利用房地產並與債券持有人找到某種中間立場？只是好奇你在那裡的參與程度。對此還有什麼更廣泛的想法嗎？我還有一個後續問題。

Sure. Well, so I mean, I think our plan, we try to break into 3 steps. Step 1 is get to EBITDA positive. We've got to have mile markers along the way. Step 2 is get a meaningfully positive EBITDA per unit, positive unit economics. And then step 3 is to start to grow. And we believe that with that plan, we have believed and continue to believe that we have the opportunity to run that plan and to not need to raise additional capital.

當然。嗯，我的意思是，我認為我們的計劃，我們嘗試分成 3 個步驟。第一步是實作 EBITDA 正值。我們必須在沿途設立里程標。第二步是獲得有意義的正的單位 EBITDA，即正的單位經濟效益。然後第三步是開始成長。我們相信，透過該計劃，我們相信並將繼續相信我們有機會實施該計劃，而不需要籌集額外的資金。

Obviously, the question about whether or not we'll raise capital in the future is largely a function of the speed at which we drive down SG&A, the speed at which we drive up GPU and the speed at which we're able to also drive up units once we bought them. And subtle changes in the shape of those curves can change the answer quite a bit.

顯然，我們未來是否會籌集資金的問題很大程度上取決於我們降低 SG&A 的速度、我們提高 GPU 的速度以及我們購買單位後提高單位的速度。這些曲線形狀的細微變化可能會對答案產生很大的影響。

So our plan is to not need to raise additional capital. But obviously, we'll be paying attention. We'll do what we need to do that's right for the business. I think we have access to capital in many forms. We've obviously got a lot of real estate that's very high quality. We have approximately $2 billion of real estate, approximately half in ADESA and half kind of original Carvana real estate. The majority of that is inspection centers, which are high-quality financeable properties. We've got a lot of other assets as well, and we've got capacity to put in more secured debt. We've got capacity to put in more unsecured debt. Obviously, in the future, we chose to -- and we believe it was the right choice, we could raise equity.

所以我們的計劃是不需要籌集額外資金。但顯然，我們會關注。我們會做對業務有利的事。我認為我們可以透過多種形式獲得資本。我們顯然擁有許多非常高品質的房地產。我們擁有價值約 20 億美元的房地產，其中約一半位於 ADESA，另一半屬於原始的 Carvana 房地產。其中大部分是檢測中心，是高品質的可融資資產。我們也擁有許多其他資產，並且有能力提供更多有擔保的債務。我們有能力提供更多無擔保債務。顯然，在未來，我們選擇——而且我們相信這是正確的選擇，我們可以籌集股權。

So I think we have a lot of options if we choose that that's the right path for the company. But today, we're focused on the operating plan that's got our full attention, and we're marching that to hit the numbers that we've outlined.

因此，我認為，如果我們選擇對公司正確的道路，我們將有很多選擇。但今天，我們全神貫注於營運計劃，並努力實現我們列出的數字。

Got it. That's clear. Maybe just on SG&A, you talked about the additional $100 million in reduction in the first half year. And you also mentioned coming across different buckets. I think one area where I believe you've not seen the meaningful reduction yet is the other SG&A, seemingly a bigger fixed component of your SG&A. Is a good chunk of that $100 million coming from that particular line item? Because I think you mentioned also that you don't expect more forced reductions or force reduction. So just curious like if you could help us understand where that $100 million is coming from.

知道了。這很清楚。也許僅在銷售、一般和行政費用方面，您談到了上半年額外減少 1 億美元。您也提到遇到不同的儲存桶。我認為您尚未看到顯著減少的一個領域是其他銷售、一般和行政費用，這似乎是銷售、一般和行政費用中較大的固定組成部分。這 1 億美元中有很大一部分是來自該特定項目嗎？因為我認為您也提到過，您不希望出現更多的強制削減或武力削減。所以我很好奇您是否能幫助我們了解這 1 億美元的來源。

Sure. Yes. So we talked a little bit about that in the letter. The -- we do expect the SG&A reductions, the $100 million in aggregate in quarterly expense reductions that we're targeting over the next 2 quarters to come across the major line items. So in that, I would include payroll, I would include advertising, logistics and the other expense bucket.

當然。是的。因此我們在信中稍微談論了這一點。我們確實預期銷售、一般及行政費用將減少，我們計劃在未來兩季內將主要項目的季度費用總計減少 1 億美元。因此，我會將工資、廣告、物流和其他費用納入。

I do think there's -- we certainly see opportunities to reduce other SG&A expenses, including in categories that you may traditionally think of as fixed. I think we have numerous projects ongoing to just be more efficient in our corporate and technology expenses. I think there's many areas across that component of SG&A, where we're very focused on efficiency and do expect to gain savings from that component as part of our plan over the next 2 quarters.

我確實認為——我們確實看到了降低其他銷售、一般和行政費用的機會，包括傳統上認為是固定的類別。我認為我們正在進行許多項目，只是為了提高我們的企業和技術支出的效率。我認為，在銷售、一般和行政費用的這一組成部分的許多領域中，我們都非常注重效率，並且確實希望在未來兩個季度內從這一部分節省開支。

And the next question is from Seth Basham with Wedbush Securities.

下一個問題來自 Wedbush Securities 的 Seth Basham。

Just a follow-up on the last question. Even if you do hit your breakeven EBITDA goal, you're still carrying $100 million plus in CapEx and $600 million in interest expense. So you'd be burning $700 million or so in cash. And your liquidity to support that for a period of time. But eventually, you'll run out of time. How do you expect to address that conundrum?

這只是對最後一個問題的後續回答。即使您確實達到了損益平衡的 EBITDA 目標，您仍然需要承擔 1 億美元以上的資本支出和 6 億美元的利息支出。所以你將損失約 7 億美元現金。並且您的流動性可以在一段時間內支持這一點。但最終，你的時間將會耗盡。您打算如何解決這個難題？

Sure. Well, I think as we discussed, step 1 of the plan is breakeven adjusted EBITDA, and step 2 is to go beyond that, and then step 3 is to grow. So that's undoubtedly a milestone in the plan, but it's not the plan, and we think we've got a lot of visibility beyond that. So as we discussed, we're focused to hit that plan. And we believe that if we hit in the ways that we're aiming to hit it, we've got a real shot at not requiring additional capital. If we're wrong, then we have lots of ways to go out and get additional capital.

當然。嗯，我認為正如我們所討論的，計劃的第一步是盈虧平衡調整後的 EBITDA，第二步是超越這一目標，然後第三步是成長。因此，這無疑是計劃中的一個里程碑，但這不是計劃本身，我們認為我們對此還有很大的了解。正如我們所討論的，我們專注於實現該計劃。我們相信，如果我們按照預期的方式實現目標，我們就有機會不需要額外的資本。如果我們錯了，那麼我們有很多方法可以獲得額外的資本。

Got it. And secondly, as it relates to the loan sales to Ally, could you help us understand the margins on those under the new agreement relative to the old agreement and whether there is still substantial loans on the balance sheet at this point in time relative to $1.3 billion that you had at the end of the quarter?

知道了。其次，由於這涉及向 Ally 出售貸款，您能否幫助我們了解新協議相對於舊協議的利潤率，以及相對於本季末的 13 億美元，此時資產負債表上是否仍有大量貸款？

Sure. So I think first order, we completed the deal with Ally. It's the seventh year in that relationship. That's something that we're extremely proud of. We think it's been a great program for both of us. They've certainly been there for us in difficult times, including recently. They were there for us in COVID. And we would like to think that we've been great partners for them as well, especially in better times, and that they've had access to high-quality loans that are generally outperforming similar credit quality loans across that entire time. So I think that's been a great partnership for us.

當然。所以我認為首先我們與 Ally 完成了交易。這段關係已經持續了七年了。這是我們非常自豪的事情。我們認為這對我們雙方來說都是一個很棒的項目。在我們遇到困難的時候，他們確實一直在我們身邊，包括最近。在新冠疫情期間，他們一直在我們身邊。我們也願意相信，我們也一直是他們的優秀合作夥伴，尤其是在經濟狀況較好的時候，他們能夠獲得高品質的貸款，而且這些貸款的表現通常都優於同期同類信用品質的貸款。所以我認為這對我們來說是一次非常好的合作。

And I think as we headed to the end of the year, we had a bunch of loans that we're looking to sell. We are also getting that renewal done. And it made sense to kind of complete the renewal first and push that over the years. So we had approximately $1 billion of extra loans that shifted over year-end. As part of that deal, as you'd imagine, Ally does have more spread than they've historically had. But that spread is reflective of market conditions, which is kind of the structure that we generally have in our deal. And then we take those spreads, and we pass them on, and that enabled us to earn similar finance GPU to what we've earned in the past.

我認為，隨著年底的臨近，我們有大量貸款需要出售。我們也正在完成這項更新工作。首先完成更新，然後在接下來的幾年繼續前進，這是有道理的。因此，我們在年底轉移了大約 10 億美元的額外貸款。作為交易的一部分，正如您所想像的，Ally 的傳播範圍確實比其歷史上任何時候都廣。但這種價差反映了市場狀況，這也是我們交易中通常採用的結構。然後我們獲取這些利差，並將其傳遞下去，這使我們能夠賺取與過去類似的財務 GPU。

So I think that's been a great deal for us. It gives us certainty of execution, and they've been a great partner for a long time, and we couldn't be happier with it. And then in addition, today, we also closed our first securitization of the year. So we'll continue to operate a multichannel strategy, and we plan to catch up on loan sales in the first half of this year.

所以我認為這對我們來說是一件大事。它為我們提供了執行的確定性，他們長期以來一直是我們的優秀合作夥伴，我們對此感到非常高興。此外，今天我們也完成了今年的首次證券化。因此，我們將繼續實施多通路策略，並計劃在今年上半年趕上貸款銷售。

The next question is from Zachary Fadem with Wells Fargo.

下一個問題來自富國銀行的 Zachary Fadem。

This is Sam Reid pinch-hitting for Zach Fadem. First big picture. Kind of what's the assumption for industry volumes that you're embedding in your Q1 unit outlook? And does that sequential pullback you're looking for here, what you're seeing across the industry? And then I've got 1 other industry follow-up.

這是薩姆·里德 (Sam Reid) 代替扎克·法德姆 (Zach Fadem) 上場的替補。第一張大圖。您在 Q1 單位展望中嵌入的產業銷售假設是什麼？您所期待的連續回檔是否與整個產業所看到的一樣？然後我還有另外 1 個行業追蹤。

Sure. Yes. So let me start a little bigger picture. I think we're now a 10-year-old company. And I think for basically, for 9 years of our life, well, we're in a reasonably stable environment. We are certainly in a stable environment for 7.5 years of our life, and then we went through COVID, but we still had somewhat similar used vehicle sales volume at the industry level. And then I think for the last year, we saw those volumes at the industry level drop by -- on the order of 10%, give or take, and I certainly think that has correlated with a bunch of choice that we've made to shrink up and to focus on profitability, and I think basically with more pressure on independence even relative to franchise dealers.

當然。是的。那麼讓我開始描繪一幅更大的圖景。我想我們現在是一家有 10 年歷史的公司。我認為，基本上，在我們生命中的九年裡，我們都處於一個相當穩定的環境。在我們生命的 7.5 年裡，我們確實處於一個穩定的環境中，然後我們經歷了 COVID，但從行業層面來看，我們的二手車銷售仍然有些相似。然後我認為，在過去的一年裡，我們看到行業層面的銷量下降了——大約 10%，我當然認為這與我們做出的一系列選擇有關，即縮小規模並專注於盈利能力，而且我認為，這基本上與特許經銷商相比，獨立性壓力更大。

And so undoubtedly, the last year has been a much slower year for us. It's the first year where we actually shrunk by 3%. We've grown very, very quickly in all previous years. And so I think the correlation is there when the market was shrinking, we were shrinking. When the market was stable, we were growing. I do think that, that is more correlation than it is direct causation. The market moving up or down by 10% relative to all the growth rates that we've seen in every year of our life prior to this year will be very, very small relative to how quickly we were growing.

因此，毫無疑問，去年對我們來說是發展緩慢的一年。這是我們實際縮減 3% 的第一年。我們在過去這些年裡發展得非常非常快。所以我認為，當市場萎縮時，我們也萎縮了，這兩者之間有著相關性。當市場穩定時，我們就在成長。我確實認為，這更多的是相關性，而不是直接的因果關係。相對於我們今年之前每年所見的所有成長率而言，市場上漲或下跌 10% 與我們的成長速度相比將非常非常小。

So I think, of course, we always have something of an embedded view around what's going to happen at the industry level. But we generally don't think that that's the biggest driver of our success. I think it happens to have correlated because many things occurred. Most notably, interest rates shooting up and car price shooting up over the last year that had a real impact on the industry in general, but us in particular.

所以我認為，我們當然總是對產業層面將要發生的事情有某種深入的看法。但我們總體上並不認為這是我們成功的最大驅動力。我認為它恰好具有相關性，因為發生了很多事情。最值得注意的是，去年利率和汽車價格飆升，這對整個行業產生了真正的影響，尤其是對我們。

So I would say probably the best way to evaluate that is we generally are looking at the market being flattish go forward. But we also, I don't think, are ever speaking in terms that are precise enough to where likely movements in the macro industry level sales volumes are that likely to impact us super dramatically. We would expect them to flow through to our results in the same way that they impact the industry in sum total. And then I'm sorry, what was the second part of your question?

因此我想說，評估這一點的最佳方式可能是我們通常認為市場將平穩發展。但我認為，我們也從未以足夠精確的術語來談論宏觀產業層面的銷售量可能對我們造成的巨大影響。我們希望它們能夠以與整個行業影響相同的方式影響我們的業績。那麼抱歉，您問題的第二部分是什麼？

No, it's just another industry question here. It kind of follows on advertising and volumes. You've seen -- you guys have done a good job of pulling back on advertising. But what are you seeing kind of across the industry? And is there a similar pullback that's taking place across your peer set? And as you pull back on advertising, can you compare and contrast your share of voice today versus where it might have been before you started to pull back?

不，這只是另一個行業問題。它有點像是遵循廣告和銷量。你已經看到了——你們在減少廣告方面做得很好。但是您看到整個行業的情況是怎麼樣的呢？您的同行是否也出現了類似的回檔？當您減少廣告投放時，您能否將您目前的廣告份額與您開始減少投放之前的份額進行比較和對比？

Sure. Well, let's start with the maybe peers in automotive because I think the automotive world, yes, there's been a lot of interesting things happening over the last 1.5 years that are probably more distorted than any period that I can remember in my career. When I say distorted, I mean abnormal. There's been a lot of things that have been abnormal.

當然。好吧，讓我們從汽車行業的同行開始吧，因為我認為汽車行業在過去的一年半裡發生了很多有趣的事情，這些事情可能比我職業生涯中記憶中的任何時期都更加扭曲。當我說扭曲時，我的意思是不正常。有很多事情是不正常的。

So we went through this period where cars very rapidly appreciated. And for the most part, consumers weren't getting enough spots where that didn't necessarily impact industry-level sales volumes that much in 2022 as we saw cars start to slowly come down, but rates go up. We saw affordability stay in a pretty similar spot, but we saw the industry generally get softer.

所以我們經歷了汽車快速升值的時期。而且在大多數情況下，消費者沒有獲得足夠的關注，這並不一定會對 2022 年的行業銷售產生太大影響，因為我們看到汽車銷售開始緩慢下降，但費率卻上升。我們發現負擔能力保持在相當相似的水平，但我們發現整個行業普遍變得疲軟。

I think franchise dealers have done incredibly well through the last 2 years. I think if you kind of graph there, pick your kind of bottom line metric, but to make it comparable to ours, if you grab their EBITDA margins over the last 20 years, you would see extreme outliers over the last couple of years. I think that while new volumes have gone down, new margins have gone up by more than the volumes have gone down, and so there's been a lot of profitability there.

我認為特許經銷商在過去兩年中表現非常好。我認為，如果你繪製圖表，選擇你的底線指標，但為了使其與我們的指標相媲美，如果你獲取過去 20 年的 EBITDA 利潤率，你會看到過去幾年的極端異常值。我認為，雖然新銷量下降了，但新利潤率的上升幅度卻超過了銷量的下降幅度，因此獲利能力很強。

I think given how high car prices are, they've been able to convert many would-be new car buyers into used car buyers, and they've had an advantaged supply of used cars as they've been returned off lease. And those off-lease returns were priced in a completely different vehicle price environment. So they're able to acquire those cars at residuals that are far below the market value, even though historically, on average, residuals roughly approximated the market value.

我認為，考慮到汽車價格如此之高，他們已經能夠將許多潛在的新車購買者轉變為二手車購買者，而且由於這些二手車已經租賃完畢，因此他們擁有優勢的二手車供應。而這些租賃期滿後的回報是在完全不同的車輛價格環境下定價的。因此，他們能夠以遠低於市場價值的殘值收購這些汽車，儘管從歷史上看，平均而言，殘值大致接近市場價值。

And so I think for franchise dealers, it's been a great environment. And I think many of them have not been super aggressively pulling back if we speak kind of an aggregate over the last 1.5 years. I think for independents, there's probably 2 categories there as well. There's those that were buying strictly from auction and those that were buying elsewhere.

所以我認為對於特許經銷商來說，這是一個很好的環境。我認為，如果從過去 1.5 年的整體情況來看，其中許多國家並沒有採取非常積極的撤退措施。我認為對於獨立人士來說，可能也分為兩大類。有些人嚴格從拍賣會上購買，有些人則從其他地方購買。

I think for those buying certainly from auction, it's been a very tough environment because the auction is the place where there's also been dramatic changes over the last couple of years, and it's been hard to acquire cars to carry a normal relative to history margin there. I think for those that have acquired cars from customers at meaningful scale, I think the last couple of years have actually been somewhat average from a profitability perspective. And so I think most of those retailers have probably played kind of a relatively average gain from an advertising perspective over the last couple of years.

我認為對於那些透過拍賣購買汽車的人來說，這是一個非常艱難的環境，因為拍賣在過去幾年中也發生了巨大的變化，很難在那裡購買汽車以獲得相對於歷史正常的利潤率。我認為，對於那些從客戶大規模購買汽車的公司來說，從獲利能力的角度來看，過去幾年的表現實際上比較平均。因此，我認為過去幾年大多數零售商從廣告角度獲得的收益可能都比較平均。

So I think those things are starting to change a little bit as we saw the market soften a little bit in 2022. We've recently seen the market be reasonably strong as it relates to changes in prices early this year. I think a lot of dealers probably came into the year with low inventories and weren't feeling super confident after November and December. And there's normally kind of a seasonal inventory build in car price appreciation around this time of the year when tax money is coming, and we've definitely seen that this year.

因此，我認為這些情況開始有所改變，因為我們看到市場在 2022 年有所疲軟。我們最近看到市場相當強勁，因為這與今年年初的價格變化有關。我認為很多經銷商可能在進入今年時庫存較低，並且在 11 月和 12 月之後信心不再那麼足。每年這個時候，當稅收到來時，汽車價格通常會出現季節性庫存積累，今年我們確實看到了這種情況。

And then I think there's another peer set as well, which is kind of growth companies and technology companies out there, and I think that peer set has undoubtedly pulled back materially on marketing. I think the moves there have probably been much more dramatic, and we are certainly pulling back pretty dramatically on marketing. I think you can see that in our results in Q4, and there's certainly more of that to come.

然後我認為還有另一組同行，即成長型公司和科技公司，我認為這些同行無疑在行銷方面大幅縮減。我認為那裡的舉措可能更加引人注目，而且我們肯定會大幅削減行銷開支。我想您可以在我們第四季的業績中看到這一點，而且未來肯定還會有更多這樣的業績。

We're in a unique environment where GPUs are lower than they've been in the recent past. And kind of all those costs, that means fewer transactions make sense to acquire. We've also focused almost exclusively on profitability over the last year. That means many transactions that we would have acquired because we believe that they made sense over a longer-term time horizon. We have not been acquiring more recently.

我們正處於一個獨特的環境中，GPU 的效能比近期更低。所有這些成本都意味著更少的交易變得毫無意義。去年，我們也幾乎只關注獲利能力。這意味著我們會收購許多交易，因為我們相信從長遠來看它們是有意義的。我們最近沒有進行收購。

And then the customer responsiveness is different in this environment, and so we've been retesting all of our different marketing channels. In many ways, most effectively through our many markets, we'll use our markets as laboratories to turn on and off different marketing channels to try to assess what we think the effectiveness is of any given marketing channel. And I think that we found that in this environment, in most cases, there's room for us to probably pull back quite a bit on marketing because we're not getting the return that we've got in the past.

而且在這種環境下，客戶的回應度是不同的，因此我們一直在重新測試所有不同的行銷管道。透過多種方式，最有效的是透過我們的眾多市場，我們將把我們的市場作為實驗室來打開和關閉不同的行銷管道，以嘗試評估我們認為任何給定行銷管道的有效性。我認為我們發現，在這種環境下，大多數情況下，我們都有空間在行銷上大幅縮減，因為我們沒有獲得過去那樣的回報。

And so we're doing that, we're doing that purposefully. We'll make sure we roll out those tasks and we do it in a way that doesn't derail the entire business and cause it to get out of balance, but I think that there's a real economic opportunity there for us to pull back on marketing. And so we've been doing that, and we'll likely do that.

所以我們這樣做，我們是故意這樣做的。我們將確保完成這些任務，並以不會破壞整個業務並導致其失去平衡的方式完成這些任務，但我認為這對我們來說是一個真正的經濟機會，可以讓我們減少行銷投入。我們一直在這樣做，而且我們很可能會繼續這樣做。

When we do that, we are much more likely to back in direct marketing channels than we are in brand channels. I think one of the reasons that we're able to efficiently pull back on marketing spend today is because we've been able to build a high-quality brand over a long period of time, and so we want to be careful that we preserve that and continue to invest in that brand. But I do think there's opportunities in these direct channels, and I think you're starting to see that show up in some of our results.

當我們這樣做時，我們更有可能支援直接行銷管道而不是品牌管道。我認為我們今天能夠有效削減行銷支出的原因之一是，我們已經能夠在很長一段時間內打造一個高品質的品牌，因此我們希望謹慎地維護這一點並繼續對該品牌進行投資。但我確實認為這些直接管道中存在著機會，而且我認為您已經開始在我們的一些業績中看到這些機會。

So that was a long answer to a question you partially asked. I hope it was helpful, but that's how we're thinking about all that.

這就是您部分提出的問題的長篇回答。我希望這有幫助，但這就是我們對這一切的看法。

The next question is from Winnie Dong with Deutsche Bank.

下一個問題來自德意志銀行的 Winnie Dong。

I was wondering if you can give us an update on sort of the integration of ADESA and where you are with footprint integration relative to the logistical savings that can be achieved for the benefit of GPU. And in your prepared remarks, you mentioned getting back to that $4,000 in GPU. I was wondering if you can frame it around what you think the time frame is to achieving that. That's my first question, and then I have a follow-up.

我想知道您是否可以向我們提供有關 ADESA 整合的最新情況，以及您在佈局整合方面取得的進展，以及與 GPU 可以實現的物流節省相關的進展。在您準備好的發言中，您提到要收回那 4,000 美元的 GPU。我想知道您是否可以圍繞實現這一目標的時間框架來製定計劃。這是我的第一個問題，然後我還有一個後續問題。

Great. Sure. So I think we're making a ton of progress with the integration of ADESA. ADESA has 56 incredible sites around the country, and we currently have 75% of the cars that we buy from customers that we plan to sell wholesale that are now landing at ADESA properties. That's a really significant change from obviously where we were 6 months ago or certainly 12 months ago when we -- prior to the acquisition. That's very helpful from an efficiency perspective. It means those cars are on the ground in a location, where they can get rapidly inspected and sold. It means that the transportation to those locations is much less than it would have historically been because we're closer to ADESA. And so you'll start to see that flowing through in our wholesale margin.

偉大的。當然。所以我認為我們在 ADESA 的整合方面取得了巨大進展。 ADESA 在全國範圍內擁有 56 個優質站點，目前我們從客戶處購買併計劃批發銷售的汽車中，有 75% 都落戶於 ADESA 的物業中。這顯然與我們 6 個月前或 12 個月前收購之前的情況相比發生了重大變化。從效率的角度來看這非常有幫助。這意味著這些汽車可以在某個地方進行快速檢查和出售。這意味著由於我們離 ADESA 更近，前往這些地點的交通比以往要少得多。因此，您將開始看到這部分資金流入我們的批發利潤。

That footprint is incredible, and we really look forward to the gains that we'll continue to get in wholesale, in logistics and ultimately, in reconditioning over time. But I think a lot of those gains will come more when we get to step 3 of the equation, which is turning growth back up. In the meantime, the ADESA team has been doing a great job. It's been a tough couple of years for auction businesses. I think post pandemic has been a very odd time for the auction business in general. But they've been doing a great job. They've got a great plan. We feel good about the path that they're on, and so we're excited there.

這種足跡令人難以置信，我們真誠地期待隨著時間的推移，我們將在批發、物流以及最終的修復方面繼續取得進展。但我認為，當我們進入方程式的第三步，即恢復成長時，這些收益將會更大。同時，ADESA 團隊一直表現出色。對於拍賣業來說，過去的幾年是艱難的。我認為疫情過後對整個拍賣業來說是一個非常奇怪的時期。但他們一直做得很好。他們有一個偉大的計劃。我們對他們所走的道路感到滿意，因此我們對此感到興奮。

And then as it relates to the time frame to getting back to $4,000 GPU, I apologize for not being more precise in this response, but I think we tried to give some building blocks that we think are pretty big, and so I'll just -- I'll repeat some of those. If you kind of start with our GPU that was at about $2,600 and then you look at kind of the retail allowance, which we obviously don't expect to be a recurring item, that would get you up $600. If you look at our wholesale allowance, which is the same concept that exists in our wholesale inventory, that's another $100. If you look at the shift in our loan sale timing, that's just shy of $500.

然後，由於它與回到 4,000 美元 GPU 的時間框架有關，我很抱歉在這個回復中沒有更精確，但我認為我們試圖提供一些我們認為相當大的構建塊，所以我只是 - 我會重複其中的一些。如果您從我們的 GPU 開始，其價格約為 2,600 美元，然後您看看零售補貼，我們顯然不希望它成為經常性項目，這將使您的價格上漲 600 美元。如果你看一下我們的批發限額，它與我們的批發庫存中的概念相同，那就是另外 100 美元。如果你看一下我們的貸款銷售時間的變化，你會發現這個數字略低於 500 美元。

Mark gave a helpful stat that talked about our sales of cars that are less than 90 days aged in Q4, which would have been an additional $600 on top of all of that. We still have a significant room in our non-vehicle COGS. We called out that there was probably $600 of possible gains there in Q1 or Q2 relative to what we had achieved in the past. We probably have $300 or $400 of additional gains there to be had. We're getting those gains more slowly as a result of shrinking our inventory than we might have otherwise if we weren't shrinking our inventory.

馬克給出了一個有用的統計數據，談到了我們在第四季度銷售的車齡少於 90 天的汽車，這本來可以額外增加 600 美元。我們的非汽車業務銷貨成本仍有很大的提升空間。我們指出，相對於我們過去所取得的成就，第一季或第二季可能獲得 600 美元的收益。我們可能還能獲得 300 美元或 400 美元的額外收益。由於庫存縮減，我們獲得這些收益的速度比不縮減庫存時的速度慢。

Shrinking our inventory means that we're buying fewer cars, and it means that the overhead of the inspection centers is spread between fewer cars. And there's some efficiency impacts when you're buying fewer cars, but that's also transitory. So I think that's a big opportunity for us. And there are others. So I think the opportunity is all there. It's very clear. We just have executing to do, and we'll go get it.

減少庫存意味著我們購買的汽車更少，也意味著檢查中心的管理費用將分攤到更少的汽車上。購買較少的汽車會對效率產生一定影響，但這也是暫時的。所以我認為這對我們來說是一個巨大的機會。還有其他的。所以我認為機會就在那裡。非常清楚。我們只需要執行即可，我們會去實現它。

Great. And then I was wondering if you can also comment on sort of like the go-forward strategy in terms of mix of inventory. I think you had previously indicated that you're going -- on a go-forward basis going to tailor towards the lower price inventory just given the current macro conditions. Can you give us a sense if this -- that's something still on a plan amid your plan to reduce inventory?

偉大的。然後我想知道您是否也可以評論一下庫存組合方面的前進策略。我認為您之前曾表示過，考慮到當前的宏觀條件，您將會逐步調整庫存價格。您能否告訴我們，這是否是您在減少庫存計劃中仍在計劃的事情？

Sure. Yes, I can take that one. So just to set the stage a little bit, so the way we typically approach inventory mix is by evaluating what our customers are shopping for on the site and balancing that against what we're seeing in the market in terms of what customers or other suppliers are selling. And the combination of those 2 things dictate what mix of inventory we end up putting on the site. I would say we've talked a lot about inventory on this call. And certainly, our inventory has been too large relative to sales volume. We were working very ambitiously to correct that.

當然。是的，我可以接受這個。因此，只需稍微介紹一下背景，我們處理庫存組合的通常方式是評估我們的客戶在網站上購買的內容，並將其與我們在市場上看到的客戶或其他供應商的銷售情況進行平衡。這兩件事的結合決定了我們最終在網站上放置什麼樣的庫存組合。我想說我們在這次電話會議上討論了很多關於庫存的問題。當然，相對於銷售量而言，我們的庫存太大了。我們正在積極努力地糾正這個問題。

In terms of mix, I wouldn't say there's any particular patterns to call out. I think the -- I think we'll continue to evaluate as we look forward from where we are here in Q1 and just be reading the demand signals, reading the supply signals and doing our best to balance the 2 of those. But right now, I don't think that points to any particular shift that's worth calling out at this time.

就混合而言，我不會說有任何特殊的模式需要指出。我認為——我認為我們將繼續評估，展望第一季的情況，並閱讀需求訊號、閱讀供應訊號，並盡最大努力平衡這兩者。但目前，我認為這並沒有顯示出有什麼特別值得關注的轉變。

The next question is from Michael Montani with Evercore ISI.

下一個問題來自 Evercore ISI 的 Michael Montani。

Just wanted to ask, if I could. When do you think that you would be in a position to kind of switch back to offense with respect to taking market share again? Would it be potentially third quarter when the SG&A reductions would have been substantively made? And if it is, do you need to basically start growing SG&A an accelerated pace to take market share? Or do you think there's enough muscle that you could just be more productive, I guess, at a lower run rate moving forward?

我只是想問，是否可以。您認為什麼時候才能重新轉向進攻並再次奪取市場份額？銷售、一般及行政費用的大幅削減是否有可能在第三季實現？如果是的話，您是否需要開始加速增加銷售、一般及行政費用 (SG&A) 來佔領市場份額？或者你認為你有足夠的實力，可以在較低的運行率下提高生產力嗎？

Sure. So I think it's the third step in the plan right now, and the reason it's the third step in the plan is that I do think we were one of the more aggressive growth companies out there for the entirety of our life, basically from when we started 10 years ago until about a year ago. And that requires an alignment of thousands of people with priorities and what's being done and how we're working on things and how we make decisions. And I think that it's a lot of work, and it's very difficult to turn that quickly and focus completely on profitability, which is what we've done over the last 12 months.

當然。所以我認為這是目前計劃的第​​三步，之所以說這是計劃的第三步，是因為我確實認為，從 10 年前成立到大約一年前，我們一直是最具進取心的成長型公司之一。這需要數千人就優先事項、正在做的事情、我們如何處理事情以及如何做出決策進行協調。我認為這需要大量的工作，而且很難迅速轉變並完全專注於盈利，而這正是我們在過去 12 個月中所做的。

And there are definitely some, I would say, transition costs to just get thousands of people aligned on a new set of goals that we're all equally excited about and that we have a lot of work to do and a lot of gains to be had. And so I think we paid those kind of fixed costs to transition. And I think as a result, we'll probably hang out here with priorities that look more like our current priorities for a little longer than might even be kind of optimal given what the market is putting in front of us just because it is expensive to have these big priority changes. And so I don't know exactly when that will be.

我想說，為了讓成千上萬的人對一套新的目標達成一致，我們肯定會付出一些過渡成本，我們都對這套新目標感到同樣興奮，我們還有很多工作要做，還有很多收穫。所以我認為我們為過渡支付了這些固定成本。因此，我認為，我們可能會在這裡停留一段時間，這些優先事項看起來更像我們當前的優先事項，甚至可能不是市場擺在我們面前的最佳優先事項，因為進行這些重大的優先事項改變成本很高。所以我不知道那具體是什麼時候。

I think even over the last 3 or 4 months, we've learned a lot as we've gone. Many of these things that we do, we outline projects that we think make sense and then we roll them out, and then we learn what the reality is. They have some impacts to customer experience. They have some impacts to customer conversion. They have some impacts to our underlying costs, and they suggest an optimal path forward as it relates to the balance of the way that we pull those levers and the volume that we sell.

我認為，即使在過去的三、四個月裡，我們也學到了很多。我們所做的許多事情，都是先列出我們認為有意義的項目，然後將其付諸實施，最後才了解實際情況。它們對客戶體驗有一定影響。它們對客戶轉換有一定影響。它們對我們的基本成本產生了一些影響，並且它們提出了一條最佳的前進道路，因為它與我們拉動這些槓桿的方式和我們銷售的數量之間的平衡有關。

And so I think what we've seen over the last 3 or 4 months is more of our projects are probably having bigger operational gains than we may have kind of hoped for, but they're also pushing in the direction of fewer sales. And so that's where we've aggressively shifted in the last several months toward smaller inventory, and we plan to kind of catch and bottom at a smaller level of sales than we probably would have imagined even 6 months ago. And I think we still have learning to do because there's still many, many of these projects in our backlog that we're rolling out.

因此，我認為，我們在過去 3 或 4 個月中看到的情況是，我們的更多項目可能獲得了比我們所希望的更大的營運收益，但它們也導致銷售額下降。因此，我們在過去幾個月中積極轉向減少庫存，並計劃在比我們六個月前想像的更低的銷售水平上追趕並觸底。我認為我們還有很多事情需要學習，因為我們的積壓項目中還有很多項目需要進行。

So I don't think we know exactly what the answer to that question is. But I don't think it obviously has to be a super long time, and I think that it's time for growth. We're going to head into growth a much more efficient company. We're going to head into growth, a company that knows exactly how to do that. We're going to head into growth, the company that has an infrastructure advantage that is materially different than the infrastructure advantage we had when we were growing last time.

所以我認為我們不知道這個問題的確切答案是什麼。但我不認為這顯然需要很長時間，我認為這是成長的時候了。我們將朝著更有效率的成長方向發展。我們將邁向成長，我們是一家確切知道如何成長的公司。我們將邁向成長，公司的基礎設施優勢與我們上次成長時擁有的基礎設施優勢有實質的不同。

So I think that will be an exciting time. It's not obviously that far away, but I don't think we yet know exactly when it is. And for now, we're going to keep our heads down on the plan that we outlined.

所以我認為那將是一個令人興奮的時刻。顯然它並不是那麼遙遠，但我認為我們還不知道具體時間。現在，我們將繼續執行我們所製定的計劃。

Got it. And if I could just quickly follow up on one other angle was EBITDA. So for this year, I was getting to EBITDA loss in the $400 million to $600 million range for 2023. And that's basically like a slight decline in units, low $3,000s in total GPU, SG&A improvements like you've discussed and so kind of $1 billion plus of cash burn if you include the interest expense. I didn't know if you'd care to kind of comment on any of that or any key drivers that could give upside or downside to consider.

知道了。如果我可以快速跟進另一個角度的話，那就是 EBITDA。因此，就今年而言，我預計 2023 年的 EBITDA 虧損將在 4 億至 6 億美元之間。這基本上意味著銷售量略有下降，GPU 總成本低於 3,000 美元，銷售、一般及行政費用有所改善（正如您所討論的），因此如果算上利息支出，現金消耗將超過 10 億美元。我不知道您是否願意對其中任何一個或任何可能帶來好處或壞處的關鍵驅動因素發表評論。

I would suggest reading our shareholder letter. I think we talked a lot about some of the near-term drivers of profitability as well as a sort of broader way to think about our plan, and I think -- I think that will most likely be helpful for trying to shed some light on our near-term expectations.

我建議閱讀我們的股東信。我認為我們討論了很多關於盈利能力的近期驅動因素以及更廣泛的計劃思考方式，我認為這很可能有助於闡明我們的近期預期。

The next question is from Ron Josey with Citi.

下一個問題來自花旗銀行的 Ron Josey。

I wanted to ask more about supply and just how you balance the supply reductions with demand and conversion rates? And wondering how this sort of conversion rates are trending? I'm assuming they're coming down simply because people might not have what they're looking for. And so just historically, I understand inventory is coming down, just wondering on conversion there.

我想問更多關於供應的問題，以及如何平衡供應減少與需求和轉換率？想知道這種轉換率的趨勢如何嗎？我猜他們之所以下來只是因為人們可能沒有找到他們想要的東西。因此，從歷史上看，我知道庫存正在下降，只是想知道那裡的轉換情況。

And then maybe on the flip side of the marketing question. Ernie, you've seen the reduced marketing investments. Just talk to us about any lessons learned in terms of maybe awareness or traffic as you pull back on advertising. I think you said some of it didn't have a positive -- as positive in ROI. Maybe just talk about just inherent sort of awareness that you don't need the market as much going forward and maintain sort of the sales as they are.

然後也許是行銷問題的另一面。厄尼，你已經看到了行銷投資的減少。當您停止廣告時，請告訴我們您在知名度或流量方面得到的經驗教訓。我認為您說的是，其中一些並沒有帶來積極的效果——就像投資回報率那樣。也許只是談論一種固有的意識，即你未來不再需要那麼多的市場，並保持現有的銷售量。

Thank you. Okay. Sure. So let's start with the first question. I think undoubtedly, inventory impacts conversion. And so as inventory is reduced, we expect conversion to also be reduced and so sales to be reduced, all else constant. I think the way that we can kind of try to think about that and reduce that to a math equation that is going to kind of flow into the second question is we can basically say, okay, given our estimates of inventory elasticity, what is the sales benefit of carrying a larger inventory and then what is the depreciation cost of carrying a larger inventory? And we can compare those 2, and we can effectively get to a customer acquisition cost for those incremental transactions.

謝謝。好的。當然。那麼讓我們從第一個問題開始。我認為毫無疑問庫存會影響轉換率。因此，隨著庫存的減少，我們預期轉換率也會降低，因此銷售量也會減少，其他條件不變。我認為我們可以嘗試思考這個問題，並將其簡化為一個數學方程，這個方程將會流入第二個問題，我們基本上可以說，好吧，根據我們對庫存彈性的估計，持有更大庫存的銷售收益是多少，然後持有更大庫存的折舊成本是多少？我們可以比較這兩者，並且可以有效地獲得這些增量交易的客戶獲取成本。

And the way all that math works is you won at any given level of depreciation. You have kind of an optimal balance of inventory relative to sales, which shows up in a turn time goal. And then the way you kind of shift around that is when depreciation is higher, you want to have a smaller inventory. And when depreciation is lower, you want to have a larger inventory.

所有這些數學運算的原理就是，無論貶值到什麼程度，你都贏了。您擁有相對於銷售額的最佳庫存平衡，這體現在周轉時間目標。然後，當折舊率較高時，您需要減少庫存。當折舊較低時，您需要擁有更大的庫存。

And I think we're, A, in a -- well, right now, we're actually kind of in a maybe even appreciating environment in the wholesale market, but we've been for a year in a rapidly depreciating environment. And I think probably the smarter guess over the next year or 2 is that it will be a depreciating environment on average because car prices are still elevated relative to other goods.

我認為，A，我們目前處於——嗯，實際上，批發市場可能處於升值的環境，但一年來，我們一直處於快速貶值的環境中。我認為，未來一兩年更明智的猜測是，平均而言，貨幣將處於貶值狀態，因為汽車價格相對於其他商品仍然較高。

So that as well as the fact that we have until recently had a large inventory relative to sales, both point in the same direction, which is the optimal inventory is smaller. And as discussed earlier, that's costly in terms of the margin we realized as we're transitioning out of that large inventory. And to some degree, it's also costly as it relates to sales. But we can do all the math on that and try to make the smartest choice as we can.

因此，除了直到最近我們的庫存相對於銷售額而言仍然很大這一事實之外，兩者都指向同一個方向，即最佳庫存較小。正如之前所討論的，當我們從大量庫存中轉出時，從利潤角度來看，這是昂貴的。從某種程度上來說，它對銷售來說也是成本高昂的。但我們可以對此進行全面計算，並盡力做出最明智的選擇。

I think we talked a lot on the way up about the positive feedback in the business. As the business gets bigger, it gets better. And it is also true that when we are shrinking, that creates kind of negative feedback loops that we have to be mindful of and make it a little bit harder. But that's all taken into account as we build out our plans and calculate what we think is the best set of moves in this environment, given our current priorities. So I think the impacts are exactly as you'd expect directionally, and then I hope that was helpful color in terms of the way that we think about it and the way that it impacts the business.

我認為我們在業務發展過程中討論了很多有關積極回饋的問題。隨著業務的擴大，情況也變得越來越好。而且，當我們縮小時，確實會產生一種負回饋循環，我們必須注意這種循環，並使其變得更加困難。但在我們制定計劃並根據當前的優先事項計算我們認為在這種環境下最好的舉措時，所有這些都被考慮在內。因此，我認為其影響正如您所預期的那樣，然後我希望這對我們思考它的方式以及它對業務的影響方式有所幫助。

On marketing, I would say there's a lot of potential learnings there. We're in a pretty different world than we were 2 years ago, and so I think we ought to be careful to not extrapolate them as absolute truth. We have to evaluate we're learning of things that are true in this environment. I think it is highly likely that our brand is materially stronger than it was a couple of years ago. And I think as we go through and we reevaluate various marketing channels, I think that does seem to be having an impact on what we think the ROI is of those various channels.

關於行銷，我想說有很多潛在的學習價值。我們現在所處的世界與兩年前相比已經大不相同，所以我認為我們應該小心，不要將它們推論為絕對真理。我們必須評估我們所學到的在這種環境下真實的事情。我認為我們的品牌很有可能比幾年前更強大。我認為，當我們重新評估各種行銷管道時，這似乎確實會對我們認為的各種管道的投資報酬率產生影響。

Again, I reserve the right to kind of end up being wrong on that, but I think that's what the data looks like today. I think a general learning is it's important when you're growing fast and the business is rapidly changing to make sure that you revisit decisions that you previously made that might have been made under different contexts. And I think that marketing looks like there may be some opportunities there as well. We're under different context. There were choices that made more sense than they make under today's context. And I think so far, what we've learned has pushed us in the direction of lower marketing.

再次強調，我保留最終犯錯的權利，但我認為今天的數據是這樣的。我認為一個普遍的教訓是，當你快速成長並且業務快速變化時，重要的是確保你重新審視你以前在不同情況下所做的決定。我認為行銷看起來可能也存在一些機會。我們處於不同的背景。在今天的背景下，有些選擇更有意義。我認為到目前為止，我們所學到的知識已經推動我們朝著更低行銷的方向發展。

But again, marketing is a delicate thing because you're building a brand, which is a very hard-to-measure thing, and it's very important that you continue to build that brand. And so I think you want to take care. And it's, I think, easier to move with more conviction in a more quantitative way when you're talking about direct channels because those have less of an immediate brand impact.

但同樣，行銷是一件微妙的事情，因為你正在打造一個品牌，而品牌的打造是一個很難衡量的事情，所以持續打造這個品牌非常重要。所以我認為你要小心。我認為，當你談論直接管道時，更容易以更定量的方式更有信心地採取行動，因為它們對品牌的直接影響較小。

They still have a brand impact because they show up in terms of ex transactions, and then those people who buy cars may tell their friends and family about it. But they have less brand impact than the brand channels, and so we will be more careful with the brand channels. But we'll be careful in general, and we're definitely doing a lot of testing as we move down in total marketing spend.

它們仍然具有品牌影響力，因為它們出現在以前的交易中，然後那些買車的人可能會告訴他們的朋友和家人。但它們的品牌影響力不如品牌通路，因此我們對品牌通路會更加謹慎。但我們總體上會很謹慎，而且隨著我們整體行銷支出的減少，我們肯定會做大量的測試。

This concludes our question-and-answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to Ernie Garcia for any closing remarks.

我們的問答環節到此結束。我想將會議交還給 Ernie Garcia 做最後發言。

Perfect. Well, thank you everyone for joining the call. To everyone on Team Carvana, thank you so much for the work you guys are doing. This has been a tough year, undoubtedly. We've made huge strides, massive changes, a huge pivot in priorities, and I'm just always reminded of how much you care and how much you fight. This is a team of fighters. You have been fighting hard, and it is showing up. It's going to keep showing up. We've still got some fighting left to do, but we're going to do it. So thanks to all. We'll talk to you guys next quarter.

完美的。好吧，謝謝大家參加電話會議。對於 Carvana 團隊的每個人，非常感謝你們所做的工作。毫無疑問，這是艱難的一年。我們取得了巨大的進步，發生了巨大的變化，優先事項發生了巨大的轉變，我總是想起你們有多麼關心，有多麼努力奮鬥。這是一支戰士隊伍。你一直在努力奮鬥，現在成果已經顯現。它會持續出現。我們還有一些戰鬥要做，但我們會去做。感謝大家。我們將在下個季度與你們交談。

The conference is now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.

會議現已結束。感謝您參加今天的演講。您現在可以斷開連線。