Carvana Co (CVNA) 2022 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good afternoon, and welcome to the Carvana Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2022 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) Please note this event is being recorded.

下午好，歡迎來到 Carvana 第四季度和 2022 年全年收益電話會議。 （操作員說明）請注意正在記錄此事件。

I would now like to turn the conference over to Meg Kehan, Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

我現在想把會議轉交給投資者關係部的 Meg Kehan。請繼續。

Thank you, Gary. Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen, and thank you for joining us on Carvana's Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2022 Earnings Conference Call. Please note that this call will be simultaneously webcast on the Investor Relations section of the company's corporate website at investors.carvana.com. The fourth quarter shareholder letter is also posted on the IR website. Additionally, we posted a set of supplemental financial tables for Q4, which can be found on the Events and Presentations page of our IR website. Joining me on the call today are Ernie Garcia, Chief Executive Officer; and Mark Jenkins, Chief Financial Officer.

謝謝你，加里。女士們先生們，下午好，感謝您加入我們參加 Carvana 的第四季度和 2022 年全年收益電話會議。請注意，此次電話會議將同時在公司網站 investors.carvana.com 的投資者關係部分進行網絡直播。第四季度股東信也發佈在 IR 網站上。此外，我們還發布了一組第四季度的補充財務表，可以在我們 IR 網站的“活動和演示”頁面上找到。今天和我一起參加電話會議的是首席執行官 Ernie Garcia；和首席財務官 Mark Jenkins。

Before we start, I would like to remind you that the following discussion contains forward-looking statements within the meaning of the federal securities laws, including, but not limited to, Carvana's market opportunities and future financial results that involve risks and uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially from those discussed here. A detailed discussion of the material factors that cause actual results to differ from forward-looking statements can be found in the Risk Factors section of Carvana's most recent Form 10-K. The forward-looking statements and risks in this conference call are based on current expectations as of today, and Carvana assumes no obligation to update or revise them, whatsoever, as a result of new developments or otherwise.

在我們開始之前，我想提醒您，以下討論包含聯邦證券法含義內的前瞻性陳述，包括但不限於 Carvana 的市場機會和未來財務結果，這些風險和不確定性可能會導致實際結果與此處討論的結果大不相同。有關導致實際結果與前瞻性陳述不同的重大因素的詳細討論，請參閱 Carvana 最新的 10-K 表格的風險因素部分。本次電話會議中的前瞻性陳述和風險基於截至今天的當前預期，Carvana 不承擔因新發展或其他原因而更新或修改它們的義務。

Our commentary today will include non-GAAP financial metrics. Unless otherwise specified, all references to GPU and SG&A will be to the non-GAAP metrics, and all references to EBITDA will be to adjusted EBITDA. Reconciliations between GAAP and non-GAAP metrics for our reported results can be found in our shareholder letter issued today, a copy of which can be found on our IR website.

我們今天的評論將包括非 GAAP 財務指標。除非另有說明，否則所有對 GPU 和 SG&A 的引用均指非 GAAP 指標，所有對 EBITDA 的引用均指調整後的 EBITDA。我們今天發布的股東信中可以找到我們報告結果的 GAAP 和非 GAAP 指標之間的對賬，其副本可以在我們的 IR 網站上找到。

And now with that said, I'd like to turn the call over to Ernie Garcia. Ernie?

現在話雖如此，我想把電話轉給厄尼加西亞。厄尼？

Thanks, Meg. And thanks, everyone, for joining the call. 10 years ago, in January 2013, we launched Carvana in Atlanta, Georgia. We were a passionate group of people who believe we could build something new in the world that we would be proud of. What we aim to do is simple: to change the way people buy and sell cars. There were a million little reasons to bet against us and most people who cared enough to even be aware of what we were trying to do would have. But there were 2 big reasons why we believe we could do it. One, there was room for new offering that customers would love. Two, we are a scrappy group who cared and we're ready to fight for our dream.

謝謝，梅格。感謝大家加入電話會議。 10 年前，即 2013 年 1 月，我們在佐治亞州亞特蘭大推出了 Carvana。我們是一群充滿激情的人，他們相信我們可以在世界上建立我們引以為豪的新事物。我們的目標很簡單：改變人們買賣汽車的方式。有一百萬個理由來打賭我們，大多數關心我們甚至知道我們正在嘗試做的事情的人都會有。但是有兩個重要原因讓我們相信我們可以做到。第一，有空間提供客戶喜歡的新產品。第二，我們是一個鬥志昂揚的團隊，我們關心並準備為我們的夢想而戰。

We stand here 10 years later in a place where it was hard to imagine from where we started. We built an offering customers do love. We have brought that offering to over 300 markets across the country. We have bought and sold cars in a whole new way to millions of people, and we've laid the foundations to buy and sell many millions more.

10 年後，我們站在一個很難想像我們從哪裡開始的地方。我們打造了客戶喜愛的產品。我們已將該產品帶到全國 300 多個市場。我們以全新的方式向數百萬人購買和銷售汽車，我們已經為購買和銷售更多的數百萬人奠定了基礎。

The big things overpowered the little things. This story skips a lot of time and as a result, it skips a lot of detail and gives too simple an impression. It feels linear. But the truth is there are a lot of ups and downs along the way. There were high highs and there were low lows. There were fun days and there were hard days. I think the truth of building something new in the world that there are usually more hard days than there are easy days, even though it doesn't sound that way in the stories. This is still true. Progress is rarely linear, and 2022 reminded us of that again.

大事壓倒了小事。這個故事跳過了很多時間，因此跳過了很多細節，給人的印象太簡單了。感覺是線性的。但事實是，一路上有很多起伏。有高點，也有低點。有有趣的日子，也有艱難的日子。我認為在世界上建立新事物的真相是，艱難的日子通常比輕鬆的日子多，儘管在故事中聽起來並非如此。這仍然是事實。進步很少是線性的，2022 年再次提醒我們這一點。

So what happened in 2022? The story is straightforward. One, we came into the year positioned for growth, similar to what we had experienced in the prior 9 years. Two, after the pandemic snarled the automotive supply chains and historically rapidly rising interest rates combined to dramatically impact the affordability of used cars. Three, rising interest rates and market sentiment drove a significant shift in our priorities away from growth and toward profitability. Four, this combined to lead to markedly lower volumes than we had positioned for, and as a result, we've been carrying excess costs.

那麼2022年發生了什麼？這個故事很簡單。第一，我們進入了增長定位的一年，類似於我們在前 9 年所經歷的。第二，在大流行擾亂了汽車供應鏈之後，歷史上迅速上升的利率共同極大地影響了二手車的可負擔性。第三，不斷上升的利率和市場情緒促使我們的重點從增長轉向盈利。第四，這結合起來導致銷量明顯低於我們的定位，因此，我們一直在承擔超額成本。

2022 had a lot of hard days. But we're a scrappy group, and hard days aren't always the worst thing in the world for scrappy people. Scrappy people find a way, and we're finding a way. The hard days are making us better, and we're doing our best work right now. As part of this work, we have 3 major milestones that we are marching forward.

2022 年有很多艱難的日子。但我們是一群好鬥的人，對於好鬥的人來說，艱難的日子並不總是世界上最糟糕的事情。鬥志旺盛的人總能找到方法，而我們也在尋找方法。艱難的日子讓我們變得更好，我們現在正在盡最大努力。作為這項工作的一部分，我們正在推進 3 個主要里程碑。

The first step is to drive the business to breakeven adjusted EBITDA. This is our current goal, and we will discuss the key drivers of this goal more in these remarks. The second step is to drive the business to significant positive unit economics. Breakeven adjusted EBITDA is a milestone, but it is not our goal. Our goal is positive free cash flow. The third step is to return to growth. Since launching in 2013, we have made capital investments of more than $4 billion, building the nation's largest used vehicle inspection and reconditioning infrastructure, first-party automotive logistics network and last mile automotive delivery network. We believe the investments we've already made laid the groundwork for not only significant growth in the future, but significantly more efficient growth that is significantly profitable.

第一步是推動業務實現盈虧平衡調整後的 EBITDA。這是我們目前的目標，我們將在這些評論中更多地討論這一目標的關鍵驅動因素。第二步是推動企業實現顯著積極的單位經濟效益。盈虧平衡調整後的 EBITDA 是一個里程碑，但這不是我們的目標。我們的目標是積極的自由現金流。第三步，回歸增長。自 2013 年推出以來，我們已進行了超過 40 億美元的資本投資，建設了美國最大的二手車檢測和修復基礎設施、第一方汽車物流網絡和最後一英里汽車交付網絡。我們相信，我們已經進行的投資不僅為未來的顯著增長奠定了基礎，而且為顯著提高盈利能力的更有效增長奠定了基礎。

Today, we're focused on the first step, and we are well on our way with high visibility on the progress we expect to make. First, we expect to continue our SG&A expense reduction plan by reducing quarterly SG&A expenses by approximately $100 million in aggregate over the next 2 quarters. This will complete over $1 billion annualized SG&A cost reduction since the first quarter of 2022. We expect these expense reductions to be broad-based across all large SG&A expense components. But importantly, we do not expect the future reduction for us to be part of this plan.

今天，我們專注於邁出第一步，我們在前進的道路上進展順利，我們期待取得的進展具有很高的知名度。首先，我們希望通過在接下來的兩個季度內將季度 SG&A 費用總共減少約 1 億美元來繼續我們的 SG&A 費用削減計劃。自 2022 年第一季度以來，這將完成超過 10 億美元的年化 SG&A 成本削減。我們預計這些費用削減將廣泛應用於所有大型 SG&A 費用組成部分。但重要的是，我們不希望我們未來的削減成為該計劃的一部分。

Second, we expect our weekly retail unit sales volume to stabilize relative to the declines we saw in the second half of 2022 as the seasonal headwinds we faced at that time transitioned to seasonal tailwinds. Stabilizing weekly retail unit sales volume will allow our SG&A expense savings to catch up to retail unit volumes, allowing us to demonstrate SG&A leverage that was elusive during periods of retail unit declines.

其次，隨著我們當時面臨的季節性逆風轉變為季節性順風，我們預計每週零售單位銷量相對於我們在 2022 年下半年看到的下降趨於穩定。穩定每週零售單位銷量將使我們的 SG&A 費用節省趕上零售單位銷量，使我們能夠證明在零售單位下降期間難以捉摸的 SG&A 槓桿作用。

Third, we expect a substantial reduction in our inventory size, which we accelerated in Q4 to lead to significant gains in retail GPU. While we don't expect to see meaningful gains on retail GPU in Q1, we expect to see the benefits of reducing inventory size become apparent in the following quarters.

第三，我們預計我們的庫存規模將大幅減少，我們在第四季度加速減少，從而導致零售 GPU 的顯著增長。雖然我們預計第一季度零售 GPU 不會有顯著增長，但我們預計減少庫存規模的好處將在接下來的幾個季度變得明顯。

The progress we are making shows up first in operational metrics and then flows in the financial metrics later as those operational efficiencies get rolled out and utilized across the business. Across all operating groups, the operational progress we have already made and are continuing to make is significant.

我們取得的進展首先體現在運營指標中，然後隨著這些運營效率在整個企業中的推廣和利用，在財務指標中體現出來。在所有運營集團中，我們已經取得併將繼續取得的運營進展意義重大。

In logistics, our average delivery business is down 25% since early 2022. In market operations, we have built scheduling systems that currently allow us to pair over 1 out of 3 retail deliveries with a vehicle pickup, up from 1 out of 14 retail sales just 1 year ago. In customer care, our advocates are spending 40% less time in the phone per sale than they were in early 2022. And our vending machine pickup rates have more than doubled since the start of last year, with 40% of our customers nationwide now picking up their car a vending machine even though we only have vending machines in a subset of our markets. Importantly, we have done all this while improving quality of our customer experiences over the last 6 months.

在物流方面，自 2022 年初以來，我們的平均送貨業務下降了 25%。在市場運營方面，我們已經建立了調度系統，目前允許我們將超過三分之一的零售送貨與車輛提貨配對，高於四分之一的零售銷售就在 1 年前。在客戶服務方面，與 2022 年初相比，我們的倡導者在每次銷售中花在電話上的時間減少了 40%。自去年年初以來，我們的自動售貨機提貨率增加了一倍多，現在全國有 40% 的客戶在提貨把他們的車裝成自動售貨機，儘管我們只有一部分市場有自動售貨機。重要的是，在過去 6 個月中，我們在完成所有這些工作的同時還提高了客戶體驗的質量。

As often the case when working through these transitions and when the operational progress is beginning to convert into financial progress, there are some onetime items and extrapolations that need to be made to really see the quality of the progress we are currently making. These are outlined in the shareholder letter, and Mark will provide some color on them as well, but the progress is really beginning to show up. This will continue to get clear and to require less explanation over time as we expect the combination of these 3 factors to lead a significantly improved adjusted EBITDA profitability over the next 2 quarters.

通常情況下，在完成這些過渡以及運營進展開始轉化為財務進展時，需要進行一些一次性項目和推斷，以真正了解我們目前取得的進展的質量。這些在股東信中有概述，馬克也會提供一些顏色，但進展確實開始顯現。隨著時間的推移，這將繼續變得清晰並且需要更少的解釋，因為我們預計這三個因素的結合將導致未來兩個季度調整後的 EBITDA 盈利能力顯著提高。

2022 was a hard year, and we still have a lot of hard work in front of us to get to where we want to be. But we have a clear plan, and we are executing. This is still a 40 million unit a year market on average. We still have just 1% market share. We are still a passionate scrappy group who cares and who's ready to fight for our dream. Our customers do love our offering. We have built the capabilities and laid the foundations to buy and sell cars with millions and millions of customers, and there are still a million little reason to bet against us. We expect the big things to overpower the little things just as they have in the past. We are firmly on the path to building the nation's largest and most profitable automotive retailer and to achieving our mission of changing the way people buy cars. The march continues. Mark?

2022 年是艱難的一年，要到達我們想去的地方，我們還有很多艱苦的工作要做。但我們有一個明確的計劃，我們正在執行。這仍然是一個平均每年 4000 萬台的市場。我們仍然只有 1% 的市場份額。我們仍然是一個熱情好鬥的團隊，關心並準備為我們的夢想而戰。我們的客戶確實喜歡我們的產品。我們已經建立了與數百萬客戶買賣汽車的能力並奠定了基礎，但仍有一百萬個理由看空我們。我們希望大事壓倒小事，就像過去一樣。我們堅定地走在建設美國最大、最賺錢的汽車零售商和實現我們改變人們購買汽車方式的使命的道路上。遊行還在繼續。標記？

Thank you, Ernie, and thank you all for joining us today. Our results in 2022 were driven by numerous external factors as well as our internal decisions made to shift priorities toward profitability. We came into 2022 significantly overbuilt for the volume we ultimately realized. Through the year, we have been executing our plan to drive profitability by steadily reducing expenses, normalizing inventory size and executing profitability initiatives that make us more efficient, more resilient and more flexible.

謝謝你，厄尼，感謝大家今天加入我們。我們 2022 年的業績受到眾多外部因素以及我們為將優先事項轉向盈利能力而做出的內部決策的推動。進入 2022 年，我們最終實現的數量明顯超額建造。全年，我們一直在執行我們的計劃，通過穩步減少開支、使庫存規模正常化和執行盈利計劃來提高盈利能力，這些舉措使我們更有效率、更有彈性和更靈活。

For the full year 2022, retail units sold totaled 412,296, a decrease of 3% year-over-year. While this was the first year that our retail units sold declined year-over-year, 2022 marked our ninth consecutive year of market share gains against the backdrop of double-digit industry declines. Revenue totaled $13.604 billion in 2022, an increase of 6% year-over-year, marking our ninth consecutive year of revenue growth.

2022 年全年，零售單位總銷量為 412,296，同比下降 3%。雖然這是我們的零售單位銷售額同比下降的第一年，但 2022 年標誌著我們在兩位數的行業下滑背景下連續第九年實現市場份額增長。 2022 年收入總計 136.04 億美元，同比增長 6%，標誌著我們連續第九年實現收入增長。

We finished the year as the second largest seller of used vehicles in the country for the third consecutive year. The scale that we have already achieved and the time line on which we have achieved it demonstrates the long-standing strength of our customer offering. Due to the dynamic nature of the current environment, we will focus our remaining remarks on fourth quarter results with a particular focus on sequential changes and the unique items impacting the quarter as well as our near-term outlook.

我們連續第三年成為該國第二大二手車銷售商。我們已經達到的規模和我們實現它的時間表證明了我們客戶服務的長期實力。由於當前環境的動態性質，我們將把剩下的評論集中在第四季度的業績上，特別關注連續變化和影響該季度的獨特項目以及我們的近期展望。

Our long-term financial goal is to generate significant net income and free cash flow. In service of this goal, in the near term, our management team is focused on driving progress on a set of non-GAAP financial metrics that are inputs into this long-term goal. In order to provide clear visibility into our progress, beginning in Q4, we are reporting 2 new non-GAAP metrics, non-GAAP gross profit and non-GAAP SG&A expense, that adjusts for certain noncash and nonrecurring revenues and expenses.

我們的長期財務目標是產生可觀的淨收入和自由現金流。為了實現這一目標，在短期內，我們的管理團隊專注於推動一組非 GAAP 財務指標取得進展，這些指標是這一長期目標的輸入。為了清楚地了解我們的進展，從第四季度開始，我們報告了 2 個新的非 GAAP 指標，非 GAAP 毛利和非 GAAP SG&A 費用，這些指標針對某些非現金和非經常性收入和費用進行了調整。

We are also updating our adjusted EBITDA definition to exclude revenue from route warrants as well as share-based compensation and restructuring expenses. We provide more detail on these metrics in the supplemental financial tables available on the Events and Presentations page of our IR website and in our Form 10-K.

我們還更新了調整後的 EBITDA 定義，以排除路線認股權證的收入以及基於股份的補償和重組費用。我們在 IR 網站的活動和演示頁面以及 10-K 表格中提供的補充財務表中提供了有關這些指標的更多詳細信息。

In the fourth quarter, retail units sold totaled 86,977, a decrease of 23% year-over-year and 15% sequentially. Our sequential decline in retail units sold was only slightly larger than the industry's sequential decline of 12% despite several actions we are taking to increase near-term profitability, including: one, normalizing inventory size; two, reducing advertising; three, proactively adjusting to increases in benchmark interest rates; and four, continuing to focus on executing our profitability initiatives. Total revenue was $2.8 billion in Q4, a decrease of 24% year-over-year and 16% sequentially, approximately in line with retail units sold.

第四季度，零售單位總銷量為 86,977，同比下降 23%，環比下降 15%。儘管我們採取了幾項措施來提高近期盈利能力，但我們零售單位銷量的環比降幅僅略高於行業 12% 的環比降幅，包括：第一，使庫存規模正常化；二、減少廣告；三是主動適應基準利率上行。第四，繼續專注於執行我們的盈利計劃。第 4 季度總收入為 28 億美元，同比下降 24%，環比下降 16%，與銷售的零售單位大致一致。

Non-GAAP total GPU was $2,667 in Q4 versus $3,870 in Q3. Total GPU in Q4 was driven by several unique items across the retail, wholesale and other components. Non-GAAP retail GPU was $632 in Q4 versus $1,267 in Q3. Retail GPU was impacted by a $52 million or $598 per unit adjustment to our retail inventory allowance, which was primarily driven by elevated industry-wide retail depreciation rates and higher than normalized inventory size relative to sales volumes. Other sequential changes in retail GPU were primarily driven by higher retail depreciation rates, partially offset by wider spreads between retail prices and acquisition prices and lower cost of sales.

第四季度非 GAAP 總 GPU 為 2,667 美元，而第三季度為 3,870 美元。第 4 季度的總 GPU 是由零售、批發和其他組件中的幾個獨特項目驅動的。非 GAAP 零售 GPU 在第四季度為 632 美元，而在第三季度為 1,267 美元。零售 GPU 受到零售庫存津貼調整 5200 萬美元或每單位 598 美元的影響，這主要是由於全行業零售折舊率上升以及相對於銷量高於正常庫存規模。零售 GPU 的其他連續變化主要是由更高的零售折舊率推動的，部分被零售價格和收購價格之間的更大價差以及更低的銷售成本所抵消。

In addition to the allowance adjustment, retail GPU was also impacted by carrying a higher than normalized inventory size relative to sales, which resulted in longer turn times. Longer turn times lead to higher vehicle depreciation, which has a negative impact on retail GPU, other things being equal. One way to quantify the impact of extended turn times is to isolate retail GPU for vehicles sold within 90 days of the acquisition date. These vehicles realize approximately $600 per unit higher retail GPU in Q4 compared to retail units in aggregate.

除了津貼調整外，零售 GPU 還受到相對於銷售額高於正常庫存規模的影響，這導致周轉時間更長。更長的周轉時間導致更高的車輛折舊，這對零售 GPU 有負面影響，其他條件相同。量化延長周轉時間影響的一種方法是隔離購買日期後 90 天內售出的車輛的零售 GPU。與零售單位總數相比，這些車輛在第四季度實現了每單位高出約 600 美元的零售 GPU。

Non-GAAP wholesale GPU was $552 in Q4 versus $682 in Q3. Wholesale GPU included a combined $103 per unit impact due to a $5 million adjustment to our wholesale inventory allowance and a $4 million loss on certain retail vehicles we sold in the wholesale market in the quarter. Sequential changes in wholesale GPU were primarily driven by these impacts and lower seasonal wholesale marketplace volume.

非 GAAP 批發 GPU 在第四季度為 552 美元，而在第三季度為 682 美元。由於我們對批發庫存津貼進行了 500 萬美元的調整，以及我們在本季度在批發市場上銷售的某些零售車輛損失了 400 萬美元，批發 GPU 包括每單位 103 美元的合併影響。批發 GPU 的連續變化主要是由這些影響和較低的季節性批發市場量驅動的。

Non-GAAP other GPU was $1,483 in Q4 and versus $1,921 in Q3. Other GPU was primarily impacted by a shift in the timing of a sale of a pool of loans to Ally from December to January to align with the upsize and extension of our forward flow purchase agreement. We estimate this shift in timing reduced other gross profit by $42 million or $483 per retail unit sold based on the actual sales price of the loans we realized in January, less incremental interest income we earned on the loans in December.

非 GAAP 其他 GPU 在第四季度為 1,483 美元，而在第三季度為 1,921 美元。其他 GPU 主要受到從 12 月到 1 月向 Ally 出售貸款池的時間轉變的影響，以配合我們遠期流動購買協議的擴大和延期。根據我們在 1 月份實現的貸款的實際銷售價格減去 12 月份從貸款中獲得的增量利息收入，我們估計這種時間上的轉變使其他毛利潤減少了 4200 萬美元或每售出零售單位 483 美元。

In Q4, we made significant progress reducing SG&A expenses for the second consecutive quarter, reducing non-GAAP SG&A expense by $60 million sequentially, following a greater than $60 million sequential reduction in Q3. These expense reductions were broad-based, including advertising, compensation and benefits, logistics and other.

在第四季度，我們連續第二個季度在減少 SG&A 費用方面取得了重大進展，繼第三季度連續減少超過 6000 萬美元之後，連續第二個季度將非 GAAP SG&A 費用減少了 6000 萬美元。這些開支削減範圍廣泛，包括廣告、薪酬和福利、物流等。

While we significantly reduced SG&A expense over the past 2 quarters, we have not yet meaningfully levered SG&A expense per retail unit sold because retail units sold have declined at a pace similar to SG&A expense reductions. As Ernie discussed, we expect our weekly retail unit sales volume to stabilize relative to the declines we saw in the second half of 2022 as seasonal headwinds transition to seasonal tailwinds. We expect stabilizing retail unit sales to allow our SG&A expense savings to catch up to retail unit volumes leading to SG&A leverage.

雖然我們在過去兩個季度大幅減少了 SG&A 費用，但我們尚未有意義地利用每售出零售單位的 SG&A 費用，因為售出零售單位的下降速度與 SG&A 費用減少的速度相似。正如 Ernie 所討論的那樣，隨著季節性逆風轉變為季節性順風，我們預計我們的每週零售單位銷量相對於我們在 2022 年下半年看到的下降趨於穩定。我們希望穩定零售單位銷售額，使我們的 SG&A 費用節省能夠趕上零售單位數量，從而提高 SG&A 槓桿率。

Adjusted EBITDA in Q4 was a loss of $291 million or 10.1% of revenue. Adjusted EBITDA was negatively impacted by a total of $103 million due to the unique retail, wholesale and other GPU items described above.

第四季度調整後的 EBITDA 虧損 2.91 億美元，佔收入的 10.1%。由於上述獨特的零售、批發和其他 GPU 項目，調整後的 EBITDA 受到總計 1.03 億美元的負面影響。

Finally, as a result of the decline in trading prices of our securities by the end of the fourth quarter, we recorded a goodwill impairment expense of $847 million. The goodwill impairment was not related to changes in our long-term expectations for our business or the operations of any prior acquisitions.

最後，由於第四季度末我們的證券交易價格下降，我們記錄了 8.47 億美元的商譽減值費用。商譽減值與我們對業務的長期預期或任何先前收購的運營的變化無關。

As we've discussed previously, our goal is to manage the business to achieve over 4,000 total GPU and significant adjusted EBITDA profitability at current higher or lower volume levels. Focusing in on Q1 2023, we currently expect the following. On retail units, we currently expect the sequential reduction in retail units sold in Q1 compared to Q4 as we continue to normalize our inventory size, optimize marketing spend and make progress on our profitability initiatives. On GPU, we currently expect a sequential increase in total GPU in Q1 compared to Q4. We expect retail GPU to increase in Q1 due to multiple offsetting effects.

正如我們之前所討論的，我們的目標是管理業務以實現超過 4,000 個 GPU 總數和在當前更高或更低的交易量水平下顯著調整後的 EBITDA 盈利能力。著眼於 2023 年第一季度，我們目前預計會出現以下情況。在零售單位方面，我們目前預計與第四季度相比，第一季度銷售的零售單位將連續減少，因為我們將繼續規範我們的庫存規模，優化營銷支出並在我們的盈利計劃方面取得進展。在 GPU 方面，我們目前預計與第四季度相比，第一季度的 GPU 總量將連續增長。由於多重抵消效應，我們預計第一季度零售 GPU 將增加。

First, we are quickly reducing our inventory size by purchasing fewer retail vehicles. Purchasing fewer retail vehicles means fewer low age units are added to the website, which other things being equal, increases the average age of our inventory and of retail units sold and reduces retail GPU. At the same time, we expect our lower inventory size to lead to a retail inventory allowance adjustment benefit in Q1, leading total Q1 retail GPU to be higher than Q4. We also expect a sequential increase in other GPU in Q1, following the shift in the timing of loan sales from December to January previously discussed.

首先，我們通過購買更少的零售車輛來迅速減少庫存規模。購買更少的零售車輛意味著添加到網站的低年齡單位更少，在其他條件相同的情況下，我們的庫存和銷售的零售單位的平均年齡增加，並減少零售 GPU。與此同時，我們預計我們較低的庫存規模將導致第一季度的零售庫存津貼調整收益，導致第一季度零售 GPU 總量高於第四季度。我們還預計，隨著之前討論的貸款銷售時間從 12 月轉移到 1 月，第一季度其他 GPU 將出現環比增長。

On SG&A, we are currently targeting an aggregate of approximately $1 million reduction in quarterly non-GAAP SG&A expense by Q2 2023 compared to Q4 2022 as we continue to execute our plan across all areas of the business.

在 SG&A 方面，我們目前的目標是到 2023 年第二季度，與 2022 年第四季度相比，季度非 GAAP SG&A 費用總共減少約 100 萬美元，因為我們將繼續在所有業務領域執行我們的計劃。

On December 31, we had approximately $3.9 billion in total liquidity resources, including $1.9 billion in cash and revolving availability and $2 billion in unpledged real estate and other assets, including more than $1.1 billion of real estate acquired with ADESA. We also ended the quarter with approximately 1.3 million annual units of inspection and reconditioning center capacity at full utilization, including ADESA locations. Over the last several years, we've made significant investments into building out one of the auto industry's largest and most expansive inspection and reconditioning network.

截至 12 月 31 日，我們擁有大約 39 億美元的總流動性資源，包括 19 億美元的現金和循環可用性以及 20 億美元的未抵押房地產和其他資產，包括從 ADESA 收購的超過 11 億美元的房地產。在本季度結束時，我們還擁有約 130 萬個年度單位的檢驗和修復中心產能，其中包括 ADESA 地點。在過去的幾年裡，我們投入了大量資金來建設汽車行業最大、最廣泛的檢查和修復網絡之一。

While we remain focused on more efficiently leveraging our existing footprint in the near term, we believe having access to this massive infrastructure positions us very well for growth with limited incremental investment in the future. Our liquidity position, production runway and our clear and focused operating plan position us well to achieve our goal of driving positive cash flow and becoming the largest and most profitable auto retailer in the future.

雖然我們仍然專注於在短期內更有效地利用我們現有的足跡，但我們相信能夠使用這個龐大的基礎設施使我們能夠在未來以有限的增量投資實現增長。我們的流動性狀況、生產跑道以及清晰而專注的運營計劃使我們能夠很好地實現推動正現金流並成為未來最大、盈利能力最強的汽車零售商的目標。

Thank you for your attention. We will now take questions.

感謝您的關注。我們現在開始提問。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question is from Sharon Zackfia with William Blair.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自 Sharon Zackfia 和 William Blair。

Ernie, you were talking really fast. But I think you said 40% of vehicles were picked up at vending machines. I think it was in the fourth quarter. I didn't catch what that compared to maybe relative to a year ago? And I guess were you incentivizing to get to that number? It also begs the question, kind of how high could that go? What is the kind of trade-off in terms of GPU when you get a customer to come to vending machine for pickup? And I noticed in the shareholder letter, you also mentioned starting to offer a pickup at non-vending machine locations. So I guess this is a long question to just ask, are we seeing some sort of evolution in the model, which would be kind of more what I would think of as an omnichannel model versus a pure e-com?

厄尼，你說得真快。但我想你說過 40% 的車輛是在自動售貨機上取走的。我認為是在第四季度。與一年前相比，我沒聽清是什麼？我想你是在激勵達到那個數字嗎？這也引出了一個問題，它能漲到多高？當您讓客戶來到自動售貨機取貨時，在 GPU 方面的權衡是什麼？我在股東信中註意到，你還提到開始在非自動售貨機地點提供取貨服務。所以我想這是一個很長的問題，我們是否看到了模型中的某種演變，這更像是我認為的全渠道模型而不是純電子商務？

Sure. So first, apologies for the fast talking. That is my habit. And so in the prepared remarks, I didn't compare it to anything. It is 40% nationwide at vending machines, even though we only have vending machines in a subset of markets, and that is roughly double since early 2022. We are testing other pickup options as well, and we are incentivizing customers to do that.

當然。所以首先，為快速談話道歉。那是我的習慣。所以在準備好的評論中，我沒有將它與任何東西進行比較。自動售貨機在全國范圍內佔 40%，儘管我們只在部分市場設有自動售貨機，而且自 2022 年初以來大約翻了一番。我們也在測試其他取貨選項，並鼓勵客戶這樣做。

And what I would say there is, I think across the entire business, we're testing all kinds of opportunities to decrease our operational costs and then see what the impact is to both customer speed of getting them a car and also customer experience, and I think this is one of many areas where we're seeing really strong results there.

我想說的是，我認為在整個業務中，我們正在測試各種機會來降低我們的運營成本，然後看看對客戶獲得汽車的速度和客戶體驗有何影響，以及我認為這是我們在那裡看到真正強勁結果的眾多領域之一。

Can I just ask a follow-up? So when you do customer research, I mean how important is delivery and what the customers want? I mean I would assume transparency, quality of car, the car they're getting. All of that is very important. But is delivery really high on the list?

我可以問後續嗎？所以當你做客戶研究時，我的意思是交付有多重要，客戶想要什麼？我的意思是我會假設透明度，汽車質量，他們得到的汽車。所有這些都非常重要。但是交付真的很重要嗎？

I think it depends on the customer, and I think that's why we've kind of structured the system to give them their option. So I think all of those things are important. And I think the easiest thing that we can measure is, in aggregate, how customers are responding to the sum total of their experience. And we are talking now about the vending machine, but there's many other examples there that I'll repeat that I kind of spoke about in my prepared remarks.

我認為這取決於客戶，我認為這就是為什麼我們構建了系統來為他們提供選擇。所以我認為所有這些都很重要。而且我認為我們可以衡量的最簡單的事情是，總體而言，客戶如何回應他們的總體體驗。我們現在談論的是自動售貨機，但還有很多其他例子，我會重複我在準備好的發言中談到的。

Delivery distance is also down 25% since early 2022. We talked about activity pairings. That can be a bit of a confusing one to make sure you are understanding. But we've got -- obviously, many customers that are buying cars from us. We have many customers that are selling cars to us. And so activity pairing is building the logic into our schedule that allows us to ensure that when a customer leaves a hub or a vending machine, they can complete 2 transactions in a single path, which is obviously a lot more efficient. That's gone from about 1 in 14 customers to approximately 1 out of 3 customers in the last year.

自 2022 年初以來，送貨距離也下降了 25%。我們談到了活動配對。這可能有點令人困惑，以確保您理解。但我們有 - 顯然，許多客戶正在從我們這裡購買汽車。我們有很多客戶向我們出售汽車。因此，活動配對將邏輯構建到我們的計劃中，使我們能夠確保當客戶離開集線器或自動售貨機時，他們可以在一條路徑上完成 2 筆交易，這顯然效率更高。在去年，這一比例從大約四分之一的客戶減少到大約三分之一的客戶。

So we're making gains all over the place. And we are seeing that really show up in operational gains first, which then I think you're starting to get a peek into the impact they'll have financially, but that does take more time. So we tend to roll these out in markets. We get a sense for the impact of both customer experience and cost and efficiency, and then we roll them out nationwide, and then we kind of are able to realize the dollar gains thereafter.

因此，我們在各地都取得了進展。我們看到這首先真正體現在運營收益上，然後我認為你開始了解它們將在財務上產生的影響，但這確實需要更多時間。所以我們傾向於在市場上推出這些產品。我們了解客戶體驗以及成本和效率的影響，然後我們在全國范圍內推廣它們，然後我們就能夠在某種程度上實現美元收益。

So I think you'll probably start to see more of those gains over the next 2 quarters, which is why we're feeling really good about our cost reduction plan over the next 2 quarters. But we've been doing all of that and many, many more examples that would fit under the same umbrella. But we take different forms in every group, and we've seen customer experiences go up in the last 6 months. So I think overall, we're really excited about the way that's playing out. We still have a lot of work to do, but the team is doing a great job.

所以我認為你可能會在接下來的兩個季度開始看到更多這些收益，這就是為什麼我們對接下來兩個季度的成本削減計劃感覺非常好。但是我們一直在做所有這些，還有很多很多的例子都可以放在同一個保護傘下。但是我們在每個組中採用不同的形式，並且我們已經看到客戶體驗在過去 6 個月中得到了提升。所以我認為總的來說，我們對結果的方式感到非常興奮。我們還有很多工作要做，但團隊做得很好。

Okay. Last question for me. I know you said you're working towards EBITDA breakeven at current volumes. What's your line of sight on timing on that?

好的。我的最後一個問題。我知道你說過你正在努力以目前的數量實現 EBITDA 收支平衡。您對此的時間安排有何看法？

As fast as possible. I think we're going to be moving as quickly as we possibly can. We gave, I think, some hopefully helpful guide rails in there around driving down SG&A dollars by $100 million over the next 2 quarters. I think Mark spoke quite a bit about some of the GPU visibility that we have that is very high.

盡可能快。我認為我們將盡可能快地行動。我認為，我們提供了一些很有幫助的指南，可以在接下來的兩個季度中將 SG&A 美元減少 1 億美元。我認為 Mark 談到了我們擁有的非常高的一些 GPU 可見性。

Something that is imposing a very significant cost across GPU right now is the choice to drive down our inventory rapidly. We're very confident that's the right choice for the business. Sales volumes are low relative to the inventory that we're carrying and, therefore, turn times are high. And especially in a high depreciation environment, it's important to get those 2 things in balance, but the transition from 2 large inventory to the right size of inventory means that turn times are even longer. That showed up in lower GPU in the quarter and in an allowance that we're taking as more of those cars that we expect to sell in the future are likely to have negative margins.

現在對 GPU 造成非常大的成本的是選擇快速降低我們的庫存。我們非常有信心這是企業的正確選擇。相對於我們攜帶的庫存，銷量較低，因此周轉時間較長。尤其是在高折舊環境中，平衡這兩件事很重要，但從 2 個大庫存到適當規模庫存的轉變意味著周轉時間甚至更長。這體現在本季度較低的 GPU 和我們正在考慮的津貼中，因為我們預計未來銷售的這些汽車中有更多可能會出現負利潤率。

So that's a transitory cost. If you look at the rate at which we're selling cars relative to the cars that we have in inventory, it's a much better number, but the transition is expensive. So I think there's a lot of visibility there. Mark also spoke a bit about the visibility we have in finance as we had a loan sale timing shift in Q4 that was costly. So I think there's hopefully a lot of building blocks there that will give you a sense. And our goal is head down sprint, and we'll get there as quickly as we can.

所以這是一個暫時的成本。如果你看一下我們銷售汽車相對於我們庫存汽車的速度，這個數字要好得多，但過渡是昂貴的。所以我認為那裡有很多知名度。馬克還談到了我們在財務方面的知名度，因為我們在第四季度進行了代價高昂的貸款銷售時間調整。所以我認為希望那裡有很多構建塊可以讓您有所了解。我們的目標是低頭衝刺，我們會盡快到達那裡。

The next question is from Chris Bottiglieri with Exane BNP Paribas.

下一個問題來自 Exane BNP Paribas 的 Chris Bottiglieri。

The first one is, in Q1, are you still taking provisions to increase the inventory allowance adjustment that's causing pressure retail GPU and wholesale? Is there a way to frame how much is left? Like what percentage of units are 90 days or older? And they're still in inventory today? And what's normal? Looks like I imagine this happens routinely, but just give us context for what's left.

第一個是，在第一季度，您是否仍在採取措施增加對零售 GPU 和批發造成壓力的庫存津貼調整？有沒有辦法確定還剩多少？比如 90 天或更早的單位百分比是多少？他們今天還有存貨嗎？什麼是正常的？看起來我認為這種情況經常發生，但請為我們提供剩餘內容的背景信息。

Sure. So I mean, I think the -- I think there's a couple of different ways to think about that. One, I wouldn't say there is any concept of what's left. I think we -- to set the allowance on 12/31, we looked at the cars that we had on balance sheet on 12/31. And then we formed expectations about the cars that we're going to sell at a loss and at what level those cars we're going to sell at a loss, and then we recorded that allowance on that basis.

當然。所以我的意思是，我認為 - 我認為有幾種不同的方式來考慮這個問題。第一，我不會說有什麼剩下的概念。我認為我們——為了在 12 月 31 日設定津貼，我們查看了 12 月 31 日資產負債表上的汽車。然後我們形成了對我們將虧本出售的汽車以及我們將虧本出售的汽車的預期水平，然後我們在此基礎上記錄了該津貼。

I do think some of the things that benefit the inventory allowance is inventory size. I think shrinking inventory, getting inventory more in line with sales volume. Those are certainly beneficial from the standpoint of retail inventory allowance. As you sort of alluded to, a retail inventory allowance is something that's always in our results. We adjust our allowance every month, and retail inventory allowance is reflected in our results every quarter. It just happened to be particularly large on 12/31 in light of the dynamics that we saw in Q4 with much higher than normalized inventory size and also very elevated industry-wide retail depreciation rates. So that's why it had an outsized effect on Q4.

我確實認為有利於庫存津貼的一些因素是庫存規模。我認為縮減庫存，讓庫存與銷量更一致。從零售庫存津貼的角度來看，這些當然是有益的。正如您提到的那樣，零售庫存津貼總是出現在我們的結果中。我們每個月都會調整我們的津貼，零售庫存津貼每個季度都會反映在我們的業績中。鑑於我們在第四季度看到的動態，它恰好在 12/31 時特別大，庫存規模遠高於正常化水平，而且整個行業的零售折舊率也非常高。所以這就是它對第四季度產生巨大影響的原因。

I think just to take that point home, I do think we've made really strong moves in normalizing our inventory size in Q4 and so far in Q1. Our inventory size is much closer to a normal size relative to sales volumes than certainly it was in Q4. And we do think that over time, that will flow into positive tailwinds for retail GPU as we called out throughout our materials.

我想把這一點帶回家，我確實認為我們在第四季度和第一季度到目前為止的庫存規模正常化方面採取了非常有力的舉措。與第四季度相比，我們的庫存規模相對於銷量更接近正常規模。我們確實認為，隨著時間的推移，這將為零售 GPU 帶來積極的順風，正如我們在整個材料中所呼籲的那樣。

Got you. Okay. And then just a bigger picture question. If I can squeeze one more in. When you're speaking to these profitability at current levels, are you extrapolating market share of your immature markets to like some natural run rate of the mature business? Because I think your national market share compared to Atlanta or some of the early market at a similar point in time. Was Atlanta profitable on that penetration? Like I guess what gives you the visibility to achieve profitability at such a low volume level? I think personally, you get well above that over time, so I'm not sure why this profitability level frankly matters in the near term, but just curious how you're thinking about all that.

明白了好的。然後只是一個更大的問題。如果我能再擠一個進去。當你談到當前水平的這些盈利能力時，你是否在推斷你的不成熟市場的市場份額喜歡成熟業務的一些自然運行率？因為我認為你的全國市場份額與亞特蘭大或類似時間點的一些早期市場相比。亞特蘭大是否通過這種滲透獲利？就像我猜是什麼讓你在如此低的數量水平上實現盈利的可見性？我個人認為，隨著時間的推移，你會遠遠超過這個水平，所以我不確定為什麼這個盈利水平在短期內坦率地說很重要，但只是好奇你是如何考慮這一切的。

Sure. Yes. So I mean, I think we mean that in the simplest way it can be interpreted, which is we believe that we can achieve EBITDA positive at the current volumes that we're at across the entire company. We're not extrapolating to kind of market shares that we have in some more mature markets. We're making a ton of progress on SG&A, and there's room for a ton more progress, frankly, given all the operational gains that we're seeing, and there's a lot of visibility in GPU progress as well.

當然。是的。所以我的意思是，我認為我們的意思是以最簡單的方式來解釋它，這就是我們相信我們可以在整個公司的當前數量下實現 EBITDA 積極。我們並沒有推斷我們在一些更成熟的市場中擁有的那種市場份額。我們在 SG&A 方面取得了很大進展，坦率地說，考慮到我們所看到的所有運營收益，還有很多進展的空間，而且 GPU 進展也有很多可見性。

So I think this last year has been massive change in priorities for the company. The world changed on us very, very quickly. And we shifted our priorities very, very quickly. And undoubtedly, that's been a difficult transition. But I think there's no doubt that it's leading to a more efficient company. I think that is not yet fully showing up in the numbers, but there's no doubt it's showing up very clearly in the operational numbers, and we expect it to show up in the numbers in the not-too-distant future.

所以我認為去年公司的優先事項發生了巨大變化。世界對我們的改變非常非常快。我們非常非常迅速地改變了我們的優先事項。毫無疑問，這是一個艱難的轉變。但我認為毫無疑問，它會導致一家更有效率的公司。我認為這還沒有完全體現在數字中，但毫無疑問它在運營數字中表現得非常清楚，我們預計它會在不久的將來出現在數字中。

So we believe that we can get to EBITDA positivity at current volumes and to significantly positive EBITDA at current volumes, and then we obviously expect to continue to grow from there and to get even more EBITDA positive on a unit basis from there as well. So I think we've got a lot of work in front of us, but we've got a lot of great visibility as well.

因此，我們相信我們可以在當前數量上獲得 EBITDA 積極性，並在當前數量上獲得顯著積極的 EBITDA，然後我們顯然希望從那裡繼續增長，並從那裡獲得更多的單位 EBITDA 積極性。所以我認為我們面前有很多工作要做，但我們也有很多知名度。

Next question is from Rajat Gupta with JPMorgan.

下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Rajat Gupta。

Great. Ernie, I think the elephant in the room is the $600 million or so of interest expense even if you get to EBITDA breakeven at some point next year or later next year. You also need to add more debt at some stage to continue to just pay the ongoing additional debt. Is there anything you can do or considering to use that burden, perhaps some form of restructuring that can take place, leveraging the real estate and find some sort of a middle ground with the bondholders? Just curious what level of engagement you have there. Any broader thoughts on that? And I have a follow-up.

偉大的。厄尼，我認為房間裡的大像是 6 億美元左右的利息支出，即使你在明年或明年晚些時候達到 EBITDA 盈虧平衡。您還需要在某個階段增加更多債務以繼續支付正在進行的額外債務。你有什麼可以做或考慮使用這種負擔，也許可以進行某種形式的重組，利用房地產並找到與債券持有人的某種中間立場？只是好奇你在那裡的參與程度。對此有更廣泛的想法嗎？我有一個後續行動。

Sure. Well, so I mean, I think our plan, we try to break into 3 steps. Step 1 is get to EBITDA positive. We've got to have mile markers along the way. Step 2 is get a meaningfully positive EBITDA per unit, positive unit economics. And then step 3 is to start to grow. And we believe that with that plan, we have believed and continue to believe that we have the opportunity to run that plan and to not need to raise additional capital.

當然。嗯，所以我的意思是，我認為我們的計劃，我們嘗試分為 3 個步驟。第 1 步是使 EBITDA 為正值。一路上我們必須有英里標記。第 2 步是獲得有意義的正單位 EBITDA，正單位經濟效益。然後第 3 步是開始生長。我們相信，通過該計劃，我們已經相信並將繼續相信我們有機會執行該計劃並且不需要籌集額外資金。

Obviously, the question about whether or not we'll raise capital in the future is largely a function of the speed at which we drive down SG&A, the speed at which we drive up GPU and the speed at which we're able to also drive up units once we bought them. And subtle changes in the shape of those curves can change the answer quite a bit.

顯然，關於我們未來是否會籌集資金的問題在很大程度上取決於我們降低 SG&A 的速度、提高 GPU 的速度以及我們能夠提高的速度一旦我們買了它們就增加了單位。這些曲線形狀的細微變化可以使答案發生很大變化。

So our plan is to not need to raise additional capital. But obviously, we'll be paying attention. We'll do what we need to do that's right for the business. I think we have access to capital in many forms. We've obviously got a lot of real estate that's very high quality. We have approximately $2 billion of real estate, approximately half in ADESA and half kind of original Carvana real estate. The majority of that is inspection centers, which are high-quality financeable properties. We've got a lot of other assets as well, and we've got capacity to put in more secured debt. We've got capacity to put in more unsecured debt. Obviously, in the future, we chose to -- and we believe it was the right choice, we could raise equity.

所以我們的計劃是不需要籌集額外的資金。但顯然，我們會注意的。我們將做我們需要做的對業務正確的事情。我認為我們可以通過多種形式獲得資本。我們顯然有很多質量非常高的房地產。我們擁有大約 20 億美元的房地產，其中大約一半在 ADESA 中，一半屬於 Carvana 原始房地產。其中大部分是檢驗中心，它們是高質量的可融資資產。我們還有很多其他資產，我們有能力發行更多有擔保的債務。我們有能力發行更多無擔保債務。顯然，在未來，我們選擇了——我們相信這是正確的選擇，我們可以籌集股權。

So I think we have a lot of options if we choose that that's the right path for the company. But today, we're focused on the operating plan that's got our full attention, and we're marching that to hit the numbers that we've outlined.

所以我認為如果我們選擇對公司來說是正確的道路，我們有很多選擇。但今天，我們專注於我們全神貫注的運營計劃，我們正在推進該計劃以達到我們概述的數字。

Got it. That's clear. Maybe just on SG&A, you talked about the additional $100 million in reduction in the first half year. And you also mentioned coming across different buckets. I think one area where I believe you've not seen the meaningful reduction yet is the other SG&A, seemingly a bigger fixed component of your SG&A. Is a good chunk of that $100 million coming from that particular line item? Because I think you mentioned also that you don't expect more forced reductions or force reduction. So just curious like if you could help us understand where that $100 million is coming from.

知道了。這很清楚。也許只是在 SG&A 上，你談到了上半年額外減少的 1 億美元。你還提到遇到不同的桶。我認為你還沒有看到有意義的減少的一個領域是另一個 SG&A，它似乎是你的 SG&A 中更大的固定部分。這 1 億美元中有很大一部分來自該特定訂單項嗎？因為我想你也提到了你不希望有更多的強制裁員或裁員。所以很好奇，如果你能幫助我們了解這 1 億美元的來源。

Sure. Yes. So we talked a little bit about that in the letter. The -- we do expect the SG&A reductions, the $100 million in aggregate in quarterly expense reductions that we're targeting over the next 2 quarters to come across the major line items. So in that, I would include payroll, I would include advertising, logistics and the other expense bucket.

當然。是的。所以我們在信中談到了一點。 - 我們確實預計 SG&A 的削減，即我們在未來兩個季度的目標是減少 1 億美元的季度費用，以涵蓋主要的項目。因此，我將包括工資單、廣告、物流和其他費用。

I do think there's -- we certainly see opportunities to reduce other SG&A expenses, including in categories that you may traditionally think of as fixed. I think we have numerous projects ongoing to just be more efficient in our corporate and technology expenses. I think there's many areas across that component of SG&A, where we're very focused on efficiency and do expect to gain savings from that component as part of our plan over the next 2 quarters.

我確實認為 - 我們當然看到了減少其他 SG&A 費用的機會，包括您傳統上認為固定的類別。我認為我們正在進行許多項目，以提高我們的公司和技術支出的效率。我認為 SG&A 的這個組成部分有很多領域，我們非常關注效率，並且確實希望在接下來的兩個季度中作為我們計劃的一部分從該組成部分中獲得節省。

And the next question is from Seth Basham with Wedbush Securities.

下一個問題來自 Wedbush Securities 的 Seth Basham。

Just a follow-up on the last question. Even if you do hit your breakeven EBITDA goal, you're still carrying $100 million plus in CapEx and $600 million in interest expense. So you'd be burning $700 million or so in cash. And your liquidity to support that for a period of time. But eventually, you'll run out of time. How do you expect to address that conundrum?

只是對最後一個問題的跟進。即使您確實達到了收支平衡的 EBITDA 目標，您仍然需要承擔 1 億美元的資本支出和 6 億美元的利息支出。所以你會燒掉 7 億美元左右的現金。還有你的流動性來支持它一段時間。但最終，你會沒時間了。您希望如何解決這個難題？

Sure. Well, I think as we discussed, step 1 of the plan is breakeven adjusted EBITDA, and step 2 is to go beyond that, and then step 3 is to grow. So that's undoubtedly a milestone in the plan, but it's not the plan, and we think we've got a lot of visibility beyond that. So as we discussed, we're focused to hit that plan. And we believe that if we hit in the ways that we're aiming to hit it, we've got a real shot at not requiring additional capital. If we're wrong, then we have lots of ways to go out and get additional capital.

當然。好吧，我認為正如我們所討論的那樣，計劃的第一步是盈虧平衡調整後的 EBITDA，第二步是超越它，然後第三步是增長。所以這無疑是計劃中的一個里程碑，但它不是計劃，我們認為我們還有很多可見性。因此，正如我們所討論的那樣，我們專注於實現該計劃。而且我們相信，如果我們以我們旨在實現目標的方式實現目標，我們就有機會真正做到不需要額外資本。如果我們錯了，那麼我們有很多方法可以出去獲得額外的資本。

Got it. And secondly, as it relates to the loan sales to Ally, could you help us understand the margins on those under the new agreement relative to the old agreement and whether there is still substantial loans on the balance sheet at this point in time relative to $1.3 billion that you had at the end of the quarter?

知道了。其次，由於它與向 Ally 出售貸款有關，您能否幫助我們了解新協議相對於舊協議的利潤率，以及此時資產負債表上是否仍有大量貸款相對於 1.3 美元億你在本季度末擁有？

Sure. So I think first order, we completed the deal with Ally. It's the seventh year in that relationship. That's something that we're extremely proud of. We think it's been a great program for both of us. They've certainly been there for us in difficult times, including recently. They were there for us in COVID. And we would like to think that we've been great partners for them as well, especially in better times, and that they've had access to high-quality loans that are generally outperforming similar credit quality loans across that entire time. So I think that's been a great partnership for us.

當然。所以我認為首先，我們完成了與 Ally 的交易。這是這段關係的第七年。這是我們引以為豪的事情。我們認為這對我們倆來說都是一個很棒的計劃。在困難時期，包括最近，他們肯定在我們身邊。他們在 COVID 中為我們服務。我們想認為我們也一直是他們的好合作夥伴，尤其是在更好的時期，並且他們可以獲得高質量的貸款，這些貸款在整個時間里通常優於類似的信用質量貸款。所以我認為這對我們來說是一個很好的合作夥伴關係。

And I think as we headed to the end of the year, we had a bunch of loans that we're looking to sell. We are also getting that renewal done. And it made sense to kind of complete the renewal first and push that over the years. So we had approximately $1 billion of extra loans that shifted over year-end. As part of that deal, as you'd imagine, Ally does have more spread than they've historically had. But that spread is reflective of market conditions, which is kind of the structure that we generally have in our deal. And then we take those spreads, and we pass them on, and that enabled us to earn similar finance GPU to what we've earned in the past.

而且我認為當我們接近年底時，我們有一大筆貸款要出售。我們也正在完成更新。首先完成更新並在未來幾年推動它是有意義的。因此，我們在年底轉移了大約 10 億美元的額外貸款。正如您想像的那樣，作為這筆交易的一部分，Ally 的傳播範圍確實比以往任何時候都要大。但這種價差反映了市場狀況，這是我們在交易中通常採用的一種結構。然後我們採用這些利差，並將它們傳遞下去，這使我們能夠獲得與過去所獲得的類似的金融 GPU。

So I think that's been a great deal for us. It gives us certainty of execution, and they've been a great partner for a long time, and we couldn't be happier with it. And then in addition, today, we also closed our first securitization of the year. So we'll continue to operate a multichannel strategy, and we plan to catch up on loan sales in the first half of this year.

所以我認為這對我們來說意義重大。它給了我們執行的確定性，他們長期以來一直是一個很好的合作夥伴，我們對此感到非常高興。此外，今天，我們還完成了今年的首次證券化。因此，我們將繼續實施多渠道戰略，我們計劃在今年上半年趕上貸款銷售。

The next question is from Zachary Fadem with Wells Fargo.

下一個問題來自富國銀行的 Zachary Fadem。

This is Sam Reid pinch-hitting for Zach Fadem. First big picture. Kind of what's the assumption for industry volumes that you're embedding in your Q1 unit outlook? And does that sequential pullback you're looking for here, what you're seeing across the industry? And then I've got 1 other industry follow-up.

這是 Sam Reid 對 Zach Fadem 的夾擊。第一張大圖。您在 Q1 單位展望中嵌入的行業銷量假設是什麼？你在這裡尋找的連續回調，你在整個行業看到的是什麼？然後我有 1 個其他行業跟進。

Sure. Yes. So let me start a little bigger picture. I think we're now a 10-year-old company. And I think for basically, for 9 years of our life, well, we're in a reasonably stable environment. We are certainly in a stable environment for 7.5 years of our life, and then we went through COVID, but we still had somewhat similar used vehicle sales volume at the industry level. And then I think for the last year, we saw those volumes at the industry level drop by -- on the order of 10%, give or take, and I certainly think that has correlated with a bunch of choice that we've made to shrink up and to focus on profitability, and I think basically with more pressure on independence even relative to franchise dealers.

當然。是的。所以讓我開始一個更大的圖景。我認為我們現在是一家有 10 年曆史的公司。我認為基本上，在我們生命的 9 年裡，我們處於一個相當穩定的環境中。在我們生命的 7.5 年裡，我們肯定處於一個穩定的環境中，然後我們經歷了 COVID，但我們在行業層面上的二手車銷量仍然有些相似。然後我認為在去年，我們看到行業層面的數量下降了——大約 10%，或多或少，我當然認為這與我們做出的一系列選擇相關收縮並專注於盈利能力，我認為基本上與特許經銷商相比，獨立性面臨更大壓力。

And so undoubtedly, the last year has been a much slower year for us. It's the first year where we actually shrunk by 3%. We've grown very, very quickly in all previous years. And so I think the correlation is there when the market was shrinking, we were shrinking. When the market was stable, we were growing. I do think that, that is more correlation than it is direct causation. The market moving up or down by 10% relative to all the growth rates that we've seen in every year of our life prior to this year will be very, very small relative to how quickly we were growing.

毫無疑問，去年對我們來說是緩慢得多的一年。這是我們實際縮減 3% 的第一年。在過去的幾年裡，我們的成長非常非常快。因此，我認為當市場萎縮時，相關性就存在，我們也在萎縮。當市場穩定時，我們正在成長。我確實認為，這比直接因果關係更相關。相對於我們在今年之前我們生命中每一年所看到的所有增長率，市場上下移動 10% 相對於我們的增長速度來說將是非常非常小的。

So I think, of course, we always have something of an embedded view around what's going to happen at the industry level. But we generally don't think that that's the biggest driver of our success. I think it happens to have correlated because many things occurred. Most notably, interest rates shooting up and car price shooting up over the last year that had a real impact on the industry in general, but us in particular.

所以我認為，當然，我們總是對行業層面將要發生的事情有一些內在的看法。但我們通常認為這不是我們成功的最大驅動力。我認為它恰好相關，因為發生了很多事情。最值得注意的是，去年利率飆升和汽車價格飆升對整個行業產生了真正的影響，但對我們尤其如此。

So I would say probably the best way to evaluate that is we generally are looking at the market being flattish go forward. But we also, I don't think, are ever speaking in terms that are precise enough to where likely movements in the macro industry level sales volumes are that likely to impact us super dramatically. We would expect them to flow through to our results in the same way that they impact the industry in sum total. And then I'm sorry, what was the second part of your question?

所以我想說最好的評估方式可能是我們通常認為市場將持平。但我認為，我們也從來沒有用足夠精確的術語來說明宏觀行業層面銷量的可能變動可能會對我們產生巨大影響。我們希望它們能夠像它們對整個行業的影響一樣影響我們的結果。抱歉，你問題的第二部分是什麼？

No, it's just another industry question here. It kind of follows on advertising and volumes. You've seen -- you guys have done a good job of pulling back on advertising. But what are you seeing kind of across the industry? And is there a similar pullback that's taking place across your peer set? And as you pull back on advertising, can you compare and contrast your share of voice today versus where it might have been before you started to pull back?

不，這只是另一個行業問題。它有點像廣告和銷量。你已經看到——你們在撤回廣告方面做得很好。但是你在整個行業看到了什麼？在您的同行中是否有類似的回調？當你撤回廣告時，你能比較和對比你今天的話語權份額和你開始撤回之前的聲音嗎？

Sure. Well, let's start with the maybe peers in automotive because I think the automotive world, yes, there's been a lot of interesting things happening over the last 1.5 years that are probably more distorted than any period that I can remember in my career. When I say distorted, I mean abnormal. There's been a lot of things that have been abnormal.

當然。好吧，讓我們從汽車行業的同行開始，因為我認為汽車世界，是的，在過去的 1.5 年裡發生了很多有趣的事情，這些事情可能比我職業生涯中記得的任何時期都更加扭曲。當我說扭曲時，我的意思是不正常。有很多不正常的事情。

So we went through this period where cars very rapidly appreciated. And for the most part, consumers weren't getting enough spots where that didn't necessarily impact industry-level sales volumes that much in 2022 as we saw cars start to slowly come down, but rates go up. We saw affordability stay in a pretty similar spot, but we saw the industry generally get softer.

所以我們經歷了汽車迅速升值的時期。在大多數情況下，消費者沒有獲得足夠的位置，這不一定會在 2022 年對行業層面的銷量產生太大影響，因為我們看到汽車開始緩慢下降，但利率上升。我們看到負擔能力保持在非常相似的位置，但我們看到該行業普遍變得疲軟。

I think franchise dealers have done incredibly well through the last 2 years. I think if you kind of graph there, pick your kind of bottom line metric, but to make it comparable to ours, if you grab their EBITDA margins over the last 20 years, you would see extreme outliers over the last couple of years. I think that while new volumes have gone down, new margins have gone up by more than the volumes have gone down, and so there's been a lot of profitability there.

我認為特許經銷商在過去兩年裡做得非常好。我想如果你在那裡繪製圖表，選擇你的底線指標，但為了讓它與我們的相媲美，如果你抓住他們過去 20 年的 EBITDA 利潤率，你會看到過去幾年的極端異常值。我認為，雖然新銷量下降了，但新利潤率的上升幅度超過了銷量下降幅度，因此那裡有很多盈利能力。

I think given how high car prices are, they've been able to convert many would-be new car buyers into used car buyers, and they've had an advantaged supply of used cars as they've been returned off lease. And those off-lease returns were priced in a completely different vehicle price environment. So they're able to acquire those cars at residuals that are far below the market value, even though historically, on average, residuals roughly approximated the market value.

我認為，考慮到汽車價格有多高，他們已經能夠將許多潛在的新車購買者轉變為二手車購買者，而且他們在二手車供應方面處於有利地位，因為他們已經退租。而這些租賃退貨是在完全不同的車輛價格環境中定價的。因此，他們能夠以遠低於市場價值的剩餘價值購買這些汽車，儘管從歷史上看，平均而言，剩餘價值大致接近市場價值。

And so I think for franchise dealers, it's been a great environment. And I think many of them have not been super aggressively pulling back if we speak kind of an aggregate over the last 1.5 years. I think for independents, there's probably 2 categories there as well. There's those that were buying strictly from auction and those that were buying elsewhere.

所以我認為對於特許經銷商來說，這是一個很好的環境。而且我認為，如果我們說過去 1.5 年的總和，他們中的許多人並沒有超級積極地撤退。我認為對於獨立人士來說，那裡可能也有 2 個類別。有些是嚴格從拍賣會上購買的，有些是在其他地方購買的。

I think for those buying certainly from auction, it's been a very tough environment because the auction is the place where there's also been dramatic changes over the last couple of years, and it's been hard to acquire cars to carry a normal relative to history margin there. I think for those that have acquired cars from customers at meaningful scale, I think the last couple of years have actually been somewhat average from a profitability perspective. And so I think most of those retailers have probably played kind of a relatively average gain from an advertising perspective over the last couple of years.

我認為對於那些肯定是通過拍賣購買的人來說，這是一個非常艱難的環境，因為在過去的幾年裡，拍賣也是發生了巨大變化的地方，而且很難買到與歷史相比正常的汽車利潤率.我認為，對於那些已經從客戶那里大規模購買汽車的公司，我認為過去幾年從盈利能力的角度來看實際上有些平均。因此，我認為在過去幾年中，從廣告的角度來看，這些零售商中的大多數可能獲得了相對平均的收益。

So I think those things are starting to change a little bit as we saw the market soften a little bit in 2022. We've recently seen the market be reasonably strong as it relates to changes in prices early this year. I think a lot of dealers probably came into the year with low inventories and weren't feeling super confident after November and December. And there's normally kind of a seasonal inventory build in car price appreciation around this time of the year when tax money is coming, and we've definitely seen that this year.

因此，我認為隨著我們看到市場在 2022 年有所疲軟，這些情況開始發生一些變化。我們最近看到市場相當強勁，因為它與今年年初的價格變化有關。我認為很多經銷商可能進入這一年時庫存較低，並且在 11 月和 12 月之後就沒有信心了。在每年的這個時候，當稅收到來時，汽車價格上漲通常會出現季節性庫存增加，今年我們肯定已經看到了這一點。

And then I think there's another peer set as well, which is kind of growth companies and technology companies out there, and I think that peer set has undoubtedly pulled back materially on marketing. I think the moves there have probably been much more dramatic, and we are certainly pulling back pretty dramatically on marketing. I think you can see that in our results in Q4, and there's certainly more of that to come.

然後我認為還有另一組同行，這是一些成長型公司和科技公司，我認為這些同行無疑在營銷方面大幅縮減。我認為那裡的舉措可能更加引人注目，而且我們肯定會在營銷方面大幅縮減。我想你可以在我們第四季度的結果中看到這一點，而且肯定還會有更多這樣的結果。

We're in a unique environment where GPUs are lower than they've been in the recent past. And kind of all those costs, that means fewer transactions make sense to acquire. We've also focused almost exclusively on profitability over the last year. That means many transactions that we would have acquired because we believe that they made sense over a longer-term time horizon. We have not been acquiring more recently.

我們處於一個獨特的環境中，GPU 的價格低於最近的水平。在所有這些成本中，這意味著更少的交易是有意義的。在過去的一年裡，我們幾乎只關注盈利能力。這意味著我們會收購許多交易，因為我們相信它們在長期時間範圍內是有意義的。我們最近沒有收購。

And then the customer responsiveness is different in this environment, and so we've been retesting all of our different marketing channels. In many ways, most effectively through our many markets, we'll use our markets as laboratories to turn on and off different marketing channels to try to assess what we think the effectiveness is of any given marketing channel. And I think that we found that in this environment, in most cases, there's room for us to probably pull back quite a bit on marketing because we're not getting the return that we've got in the past.

然後在這種環境下客戶的反應是不同的，所以我們一直在重新測試我們所有不同的營銷渠道。在許多方面，最有效地通過我們的許多市場，我們將把我們的市場用作實驗室來打開和關閉不同的營銷渠道，以嘗試評估我們認為任何給定營銷渠道的有效性。而且我認為我們發現，在這種環境下，在大多數情況下，我們可能會在營銷方面有所縮減，因為我們沒有得到過去的回報。

And so we're doing that, we're doing that purposefully. We'll make sure we roll out those tasks and we do it in a way that doesn't derail the entire business and cause it to get out of balance, but I think that there's a real economic opportunity there for us to pull back on marketing. And so we've been doing that, and we'll likely do that.

所以我們正在這樣做，我們正在有目的地這樣做。我們將確保我們推出這些任務，並且我們以不會破壞整個業務並導致其失去平衡的方式進行，但我認為那裡有一個真正的經濟機會讓我們撤回營銷。所以我們一直在這樣做，而且我們很可能會這樣做。

When we do that, we are much more likely to back in direct marketing channels than we are in brand channels. I think one of the reasons that we're able to efficiently pull back on marketing spend today is because we've been able to build a high-quality brand over a long period of time, and so we want to be careful that we preserve that and continue to invest in that brand. But I do think there's opportunities in these direct channels, and I think you're starting to see that show up in some of our results.

當我們這樣做時，我們更有可能支持直銷渠道而不是品牌渠道。我認為我們今天能夠有效地縮減營銷支出的原因之一是因為我們已經能夠在很長一段時間內建立一個高質量的品牌，所以我們要小心保留並繼續投資於該品牌。但我確實認為這些直接渠道存在機會，而且我認為你開始在我們的一些結果中看到這一點。

So that was a long answer to a question you partially asked. I hope it was helpful, but that's how we're thinking about all that.

因此，這是對您部分提出的問題的長篇回答。我希望它有所幫助，但這就是我們考慮所有這些的方式。

The next question is from Winnie Dong with Deutsche Bank.

下一個問題來自德意志銀行的 Winnie Dong。

I was wondering if you can give us an update on sort of the integration of ADESA and where you are with footprint integration relative to the logistical savings that can be achieved for the benefit of GPU. And in your prepared remarks, you mentioned getting back to that $4,000 in GPU. I was wondering if you can frame it around what you think the time frame is to achieving that. That's my first question, and then I have a follow-up.

我想知道您是否可以向我們提供有關 ADESA 集成的最新信息，以及相對於為 GPU 帶來的後勤節省而言，您在足跡集成方面的進展情況。在您準備好的發言中，您提到要回到 4,000 美元的 GPU。我想知道您是否可以圍繞您認為實現該目標的時間框架來構建它。這是我的第一個問題，然後我有一個跟進。

Great. Sure. So I think we're making a ton of progress with the integration of ADESA. ADESA has 56 incredible sites around the country, and we currently have 75% of the cars that we buy from customers that we plan to sell wholesale that are now landing at ADESA properties. That's a really significant change from obviously where we were 6 months ago or certainly 12 months ago when we -- prior to the acquisition. That's very helpful from an efficiency perspective. It means those cars are on the ground in a location, where they can get rapidly inspected and sold. It means that the transportation to those locations is much less than it would have historically been because we're closer to ADESA. And so you'll start to see that flowing through in our wholesale margin.

偉大的。當然。所以我認為我們在整合 ADESA 方面取得了很大進展。 ADESA 在全國擁有 56 個令人難以置信的站點，我們目前有 75% 從我們計劃批發銷售的客戶那裡購買的汽車現在已經登陸 ADESA 物業。與 6 個月前或 12 個月前收購之前的情況相比，這是一個非常重大的變化。從效率的角度來看，這非常有幫助。這意味著這些汽車在地面上的某個位置，可以快速檢查和出售。這意味著前往這些地點的交通比以往要少得多，因為我們離 ADESA 更近了。所以你會開始看到我們的批發利潤中流過。

That footprint is incredible, and we really look forward to the gains that we'll continue to get in wholesale, in logistics and ultimately, in reconditioning over time. But I think a lot of those gains will come more when we get to step 3 of the equation, which is turning growth back up. In the meantime, the ADESA team has been doing a great job. It's been a tough couple of years for auction businesses. I think post pandemic has been a very odd time for the auction business in general. But they've been doing a great job. They've got a great plan. We feel good about the path that they're on, and so we're excited there.

這個足跡令人難以置信，我們真的很期待隨著時間的推移，我們將繼續在批發、物流以及最終的修復方面獲得收益。但我認為，當我們進入等式的第 3 步時，其中很多收益會更多，這將使增長回升。與此同時，ADESA 團隊一直做得很好。對於拍賣業務來說，這是艱難的幾年。我認為大流行後對整個拍賣行業來說是一個非常奇怪的時期。但他們一直做得很好。他們有一個偉大的計劃。我們對他們所走的道路感覺良好，因此我們對此感到興奮。

And then as it relates to the time frame to getting back to $4,000 GPU, I apologize for not being more precise in this response, but I think we tried to give some building blocks that we think are pretty big, and so I'll just -- I'll repeat some of those. If you kind of start with our GPU that was at about $2,600 and then you look at kind of the retail allowance, which we obviously don't expect to be a recurring item, that would get you up $600. If you look at our wholesale allowance, which is the same concept that exists in our wholesale inventory, that's another $100. If you look at the shift in our loan sale timing, that's just shy of $500.

然後因為它涉及到回到 4,000 美元 GPU 的時間框架，我很抱歉在這個回復中沒有更準確，但我認為我們試圖提供一些我們認為非常大的構建塊，所以我會——我會重複其中的一些。如果您從我們的 GPU 開始，價格約為 2,600 美元，然後再看看零售津貼，我們顯然不希望它成為經常性項目，那麼您將獲得 600 美元。如果您查看我們的批發津貼，這與我們批發庫存中存在的概念相同，那就是另外 100 美元。如果你看看我們貸款銷售時間的變化，那將是 500 美元。

Mark gave a helpful stat that talked about our sales of cars that are less than 90 days aged in Q4, which would have been an additional $600 on top of all of that. We still have a significant room in our non-vehicle COGS. We called out that there was probably $600 of possible gains there in Q1 or Q2 relative to what we had achieved in the past. We probably have $300 or $400 of additional gains there to be had. We're getting those gains more slowly as a result of shrinking our inventory than we might have otherwise if we weren't shrinking our inventory.

Mark 提供了一個有用的統計數據，其中談到了我們在第四季度的車齡少於 90 天的汽車銷量，除此之外還有 600 美元。我們的非車輛 COGS 仍有很大空間。我們指出，相對於我們過去取得的成就，第一季度或第二季度可能有 600 美元的收益。我們可能還有 300 美元或 400 美元的額外收益。與我們不縮減庫存相比，由於縮減庫存，我們獲得這些收益的速度要慢得多。

Shrinking our inventory means that we're buying fewer cars, and it means that the overhead of the inspection centers is spread between fewer cars. And there's some efficiency impacts when you're buying fewer cars, but that's also transitory. So I think that's a big opportunity for us. And there are others. So I think the opportunity is all there. It's very clear. We just have executing to do, and we'll go get it.

減少我們的庫存意味著我們購買的汽車更少，這意味著檢查中心的管理費用分攤到更少的汽車上。當你購買更少的汽車時，會有一些效率影響，但這也是暫時的。所以我認為這對我們來說是一個很大的機會。還有其他人。所以我認為機會就在那裡。這很清楚。我們只需要執行，我們就會去做。

Great. And then I was wondering if you can also comment on sort of like the go-forward strategy in terms of mix of inventory. I think you had previously indicated that you're going -- on a go-forward basis going to tailor towards the lower price inventory just given the current macro conditions. Can you give us a sense if this -- that's something still on a plan amid your plan to reduce inventory?

偉大的。然後我想知道你是否也可以就庫存組合方面的前進戰略發表評論。我認為您之前曾表示您將在前進的基礎上根據當前的宏觀條件調整價格較低的庫存。您能否告訴我們這是您減少庫存計劃中仍在計劃中的事情？

Sure. Yes, I can take that one. So just to set the stage a little bit, so the way we typically approach inventory mix is by evaluating what our customers are shopping for on the site and balancing that against what we're seeing in the market in terms of what customers or other suppliers are selling. And the combination of those 2 things dictate what mix of inventory we end up putting on the site. I would say we've talked a lot about inventory on this call. And certainly, our inventory has been too large relative to sales volume. We were working very ambitiously to correct that.

當然。是的，我可以拿那個。因此，只是稍微設置一下，所以我們通常處理庫存組合的方式是評估我們的客戶在網站上購買什麼，並將其與我們在市場上看到的客戶或其他供應商的情況進行平衡正在銷售。這兩件事的結合決定了我們最終在網站上放置的庫存組合。我想說我們在這次電話會議上談了很多關於庫存的問題。當然，我們的庫存相對於銷量來說太大了。我們正在非常雄心勃勃地努力糾正這一點。

In terms of mix, I wouldn't say there's any particular patterns to call out. I think the -- I think we'll continue to evaluate as we look forward from where we are here in Q1 and just be reading the demand signals, reading the supply signals and doing our best to balance the 2 of those. But right now, I don't think that points to any particular shift that's worth calling out at this time.

在混音方面，我不會說有任何特定的模式可以調用。我認為 - 我認為我們將繼續評估，因為我們期待從我們在第一季度的位置開始，並且只是閱讀需求信號，閱讀供應信號並儘最大努力平衡其中的兩個信號。但現在，我不認為這表明任何特別的轉變值得在這個時候大聲疾呼。

The next question is from Michael Montani with Evercore ISI.

下一個問題來自 Evercore ISI 的 Michael Montani。

Just wanted to ask, if I could. When do you think that you would be in a position to kind of switch back to offense with respect to taking market share again? Would it be potentially third quarter when the SG&A reductions would have been substantively made? And if it is, do you need to basically start growing SG&A an accelerated pace to take market share? Or do you think there's enough muscle that you could just be more productive, I guess, at a lower run rate moving forward?

只是想問問，如果我可以。你認為你什麼時候能夠在重新奪取市場份額方面轉回進攻？是否可能在第三季度大幅削減 SG&A？如果是，您是否需要從根本上開始加快 SG&A 的增長步伐以佔據市場份額？或者你認為有足夠的力量可以提高生產力，我猜，以較低的運行率向前發展？

Sure. So I think it's the third step in the plan right now, and the reason it's the third step in the plan is that I do think we were one of the more aggressive growth companies out there for the entirety of our life, basically from when we started 10 years ago until about a year ago. And that requires an alignment of thousands of people with priorities and what's being done and how we're working on things and how we make decisions. And I think that it's a lot of work, and it's very difficult to turn that quickly and focus completely on profitability, which is what we've done over the last 12 months.

當然。所以我認為這是計劃中的第三步，之所以是計劃中的第三步，是因為我確實認為我們是整個生命中更具進取心的成長型公司之一，基本上從我們開始從 10 年前開始，直到大約一年前。這需要讓成千上萬的人與優先事項、正在做的事情、我們如何處理事情以及我們如何做出決定保持一致。而且我認為這是很多工作，而且很難迅速轉變並完全專注於盈利能力，這是我們在過去 12 個月裡所做的。

And there are definitely some, I would say, transition costs to just get thousands of people aligned on a new set of goals that we're all equally excited about and that we have a lot of work to do and a lot of gains to be had. And so I think we paid those kind of fixed costs to transition. And I think as a result, we'll probably hang out here with priorities that look more like our current priorities for a little longer than might even be kind of optimal given what the market is putting in front of us just because it is expensive to have these big priority changes. And so I don't know exactly when that will be.

我要說的是，肯定有一些過渡成本只是讓成千上萬的人在我們都同樣興奮的一組新目標上保持一致，我們有很多工作要做，也有很多收穫有。所以我認為我們為過渡支付了這些固定成本。我認為，因此，我們可能會在這裡掛出看起來更像我們當前優先事項的優先事項，時間會比考慮到市場擺在我們面前的最佳事項更長一點，因為它的成本很高有這些大的優先級變化。所以我不知道那會是什麼時候。

I think even over the last 3 or 4 months, we've learned a lot as we've gone. Many of these things that we do, we outline projects that we think make sense and then we roll them out, and then we learn what the reality is. They have some impacts to customer experience. They have some impacts to customer conversion. They have some impacts to our underlying costs, and they suggest an optimal path forward as it relates to the balance of the way that we pull those levers and the volume that we sell.

我認為即使在過去的 3 或 4 個月裡，我們也學到了很多東西。我們所做的許多事情，我們概述了我們認為有意義的項目，然後我們推出它們，然後我們了解現實是什麼。它們對客戶體驗有一些影響。它們對客戶轉化有一些影響。它們對我們的潛在成本有一些影響，並且它們提出了一條最佳的前進道路，因為它關係到我們拉動這些槓桿的方式和我們銷售的數量之間的平衡。

And so I think what we've seen over the last 3 or 4 months is more of our projects are probably having bigger operational gains than we may have kind of hoped for, but they're also pushing in the direction of fewer sales. And so that's where we've aggressively shifted in the last several months toward smaller inventory, and we plan to kind of catch and bottom at a smaller level of sales than we probably would have imagined even 6 months ago. And I think we still have learning to do because there's still many, many of these projects in our backlog that we're rolling out.

因此，我認為我們在過去 3 或 4 個月中看到的是，我們更多的項目可能獲得比我們希望的更大的運營收益，但它們也在朝著減少銷售額的方向發展。因此，這就是我們在過去幾個月裡積極轉向減少庫存的地方，我們計劃以比 6 個月前我們可能想像的更小的銷售水平來捕捉和触底。而且我認為我們仍然需要學習，因為我們正在推出的積壓工作中仍有許多此類項目。

So I don't think we know exactly what the answer to that question is. But I don't think it obviously has to be a super long time, and I think that it's time for growth. We're going to head into growth a much more efficient company. We're going to head into growth, a company that knows exactly how to do that. We're going to head into growth, the company that has an infrastructure advantage that is materially different than the infrastructure advantage we had when we were growing last time.

所以我不認為我們確切地知道這個問題的答案是什麼。但我不認為這顯然必須是一個超長的時間，我認為是成長的時候了。我們將成為一家效率更高的公司。我們將走向增長，一家完全知道如何做到這一點的公司。我們將進入增長階段，這家公司的基礎設施優勢與我們上次增長時的基礎設施優勢截然不同。

So I think that will be an exciting time. It's not obviously that far away, but I don't think we yet know exactly when it is. And for now, we're going to keep our heads down on the plan that we outlined.

所以我認為那將是一個激動人心的時刻。顯然並沒有那麼遠，但我認為我們還不知道確切的時間。現在，我們將對我們概述的計劃保持低調。

Got it. And if I could just quickly follow up on one other angle was EBITDA. So for this year, I was getting to EBITDA loss in the $400 million to $600 million range for 2023. And that's basically like a slight decline in units, low $3,000s in total GPU, SG&A improvements like you've discussed and so kind of $1 billion plus of cash burn if you include the interest expense. I didn't know if you'd care to kind of comment on any of that or any key drivers that could give upside or downside to consider.

知道了。如果我能從另一個角度快速跟進，那就是 EBITDA。所以今年，我的 EBITDA 損失在 2023 年的 4 億到 6 億美元之間。這基本上就像單位略有下降，GPU 總額低 3,000 美元，SG&A 改進，如您所討論的，等等如果算上利息費用，還要燒掉 10 億美元的現金。我不知道你是否願意對其中任何一個或任何可能帶來上行或下行考慮的關鍵驅動因素發表評論。

I would suggest reading our shareholder letter. I think we talked a lot about some of the near-term drivers of profitability as well as a sort of broader way to think about our plan, and I think -- I think that will most likely be helpful for trying to shed some light on our near-term expectations.

我建議閱讀我們的股東信。我想我們談了很多關於盈利能力的一些近期驅動因素以及一種更廣泛的方式來思考我們的計劃，我認為 - 我認為這很可能有助於闡明一些問題我們的近期預期。

The next question is from Ron Josey with Citi.

下一個問題來自花旗銀行的 Ron Josey。

I wanted to ask more about supply and just how you balance the supply reductions with demand and conversion rates? And wondering how this sort of conversion rates are trending? I'm assuming they're coming down simply because people might not have what they're looking for. And so just historically, I understand inventory is coming down, just wondering on conversion there.

我想問更多關於供應的問題，以及你們如何平衡供應減少與需求和轉化率？想知道這種轉化率的趨勢如何？我假設他們下降只是因為人們可能沒有他們正在尋找的東西。因此，從歷史上看，我知道庫存正在下降，只是想知道那裡的轉化率。

And then maybe on the flip side of the marketing question. Ernie, you've seen the reduced marketing investments. Just talk to us about any lessons learned in terms of maybe awareness or traffic as you pull back on advertising. I think you said some of it didn't have a positive -- as positive in ROI. Maybe just talk about just inherent sort of awareness that you don't need the market as much going forward and maintain sort of the sales as they are.

然後也許在營銷問題的另一面。厄尼，你已經看到了營銷投資的減少。當您撤回廣告時，請與我們談談在意識或流量方面學到的任何經驗教訓。我想你說過其中一些沒有積極的 - 投資回報率是積極的。也許只是談論一種內在的意識，即你不需要市場向前發展，也不需要像現在這樣保持某種銷售。

Thank you. Okay. Sure. So let's start with the first question. I think undoubtedly, inventory impacts conversion. And so as inventory is reduced, we expect conversion to also be reduced and so sales to be reduced, all else constant. I think the way that we can kind of try to think about that and reduce that to a math equation that is going to kind of flow into the second question is we can basically say, okay, given our estimates of inventory elasticity, what is the sales benefit of carrying a larger inventory and then what is the depreciation cost of carrying a larger inventory? And we can compare those 2, and we can effectively get to a customer acquisition cost for those incremental transactions.

謝謝。好的。當然。那麼讓我們從第一個問題開始。我認為毫無疑問，庫存會影響轉化率。因此，隨著庫存減少，我們預計轉化率也會降低，因此銷售額也會減少，其他一切不變。我認為我們可以嘗試考慮這一點並將其簡化為將流入第二個問題的數學方程式的方式是我們基本上可以說，好吧，鑑於我們對庫存彈性的估計，什麼是持有較大存貨的銷售收益，那麼持有較大存貨的折舊成本是多少？我們可以比較這兩個，我們可以有效地獲得這些增量交易的客戶獲取成本。

And the way all that math works is you won at any given level of depreciation. You have kind of an optimal balance of inventory relative to sales, which shows up in a turn time goal. And then the way you kind of shift around that is when depreciation is higher, you want to have a smaller inventory. And when depreciation is lower, you want to have a larger inventory.

所有數學運算的方式是您在任何給定的折舊水平上都贏了。你有一種相對於銷售的最佳庫存平衡，這顯示在周轉時間目標中。然後你的轉變方式是當折舊率較高時，你希望擁有較小的庫存。當折舊較低時，您希望擁有更大的庫存。

And I think we're, A, in a -- well, right now, we're actually kind of in a maybe even appreciating environment in the wholesale market, but we've been for a year in a rapidly depreciating environment. And I think probably the smarter guess over the next year or 2 is that it will be a depreciating environment on average because car prices are still elevated relative to other goods.

而且我認為我們，A，在一個 - 好吧，現在，我們實際上在批發市場上處於一個甚至可能升值的環境中，但我們已經在一個快速貶值的環境中度過了一年。而且我認為未來一兩年更明智的猜測可能是平均而言這將是一個貶值的環境，因為相對於其他商品，汽車價格仍然較高。

So that as well as the fact that we have until recently had a large inventory relative to sales, both point in the same direction, which is the optimal inventory is smaller. And as discussed earlier, that's costly in terms of the margin we realized as we're transitioning out of that large inventory. And to some degree, it's also costly as it relates to sales. But we can do all the math on that and try to make the smartest choice as we can.

因此，以及我們直到最近才擁有相對於銷售量較大的庫存這一事實，都指向同一個方向，即最佳庫存較小。正如前面所討論的，就我們從大量庫存中過渡出來時實現的利潤而言，這是昂貴的。在某種程度上，它也很昂貴，因為它與銷售有關。但我們可以對此進行所有計算，並儘我們所能做出最明智的選擇。

I think we talked a lot on the way up about the positive feedback in the business. As the business gets bigger, it gets better. And it is also true that when we are shrinking, that creates kind of negative feedback loops that we have to be mindful of and make it a little bit harder. But that's all taken into account as we build out our plans and calculate what we think is the best set of moves in this environment, given our current priorities. So I think the impacts are exactly as you'd expect directionally, and then I hope that was helpful color in terms of the way that we think about it and the way that it impacts the business.

我想我們在上升過程中就業務中的積極反饋談了很多。生意越做越大，越做越好。確實，當我們收縮時，會產生一種我們必須注意的負反饋循環，並使其變得更加困難。但是，在我們制定計劃並根據我們當前的優先事項計算出我們認為在這種環境下最好的一系列舉措時，所有這些都已被考慮在內。因此，我認為這些影響完全符合您的預期方向，然後我希望就我們思考它的方式以及它影響業務的方式而言，這是有幫助的顏色。

On marketing, I would say there's a lot of potential learnings there. We're in a pretty different world than we were 2 years ago, and so I think we ought to be careful to not extrapolate them as absolute truth. We have to evaluate we're learning of things that are true in this environment. I think it is highly likely that our brand is materially stronger than it was a couple of years ago. And I think as we go through and we reevaluate various marketing channels, I think that does seem to be having an impact on what we think the ROI is of those various channels.

在營銷方面，我想說那裡有很多潛在的經驗教訓。我們所處的世界與 2 年前截然不同，因此我認為我們應該小心，不要將它們推斷為絕對真理。我們必須評估我們正在學習的東西在這個環境中是真實的。我認為我們的品牌很有可能比幾年前更強大。我認為，當我們經歷並重新評估各種營銷渠道時，我認為這似乎確實對我們認為這些不同渠道的投資回報率產生了影響。

Again, I reserve the right to kind of end up being wrong on that, but I think that's what the data looks like today. I think a general learning is it's important when you're growing fast and the business is rapidly changing to make sure that you revisit decisions that you previously made that might have been made under different contexts. And I think that marketing looks like there may be some opportunities there as well. We're under different context. There were choices that made more sense than they make under today's context. And I think so far, what we've learned has pushed us in the direction of lower marketing.

同樣，我保留最終在這方面犯錯的權利，但我認為這就是今天的數據。我認為一般性學習很重要，當您快速成長並且業務正在快速變化時，以確保您重新審視之前可能在不同環境下做出的決策。而且我認為營銷看起來也可能有一些機會。我們處在不同的背景下。有些選擇比他們在今天的背景下做出的選擇更有意義。我認為到目前為止，我們所學到的東西已經把我們推向了低端營銷的方向。

But again, marketing is a delicate thing because you're building a brand, which is a very hard-to-measure thing, and it's very important that you continue to build that brand. And so I think you want to take care. And it's, I think, easier to move with more conviction in a more quantitative way when you're talking about direct channels because those have less of an immediate brand impact.

但同樣，營銷是一件微妙的事情，因為你正在打造一個品牌，這是一件很難衡量的事情，繼續打造這個品牌非常重要。所以我認為你要保重。而且，我認為，當你談論直接渠道時，更容易以更量化的方式更加堅定地行動，因為這些渠道的直接品牌影響較小。

They still have a brand impact because they show up in terms of ex transactions, and then those people who buy cars may tell their friends and family about it. But they have less brand impact than the brand channels, and so we will be more careful with the brand channels. But we'll be careful in general, and we're definitely doing a lot of testing as we move down in total marketing spend.

它們仍然具有品牌影響力，因為它們以前交易的形式出現，然後那些買車的人可能會告訴他們的朋友和家人。但是他們的品牌影響力比不上品牌渠道，所以我們會更加小心品牌渠道。但總的來說，我們會很小心，而且隨著我們降低總營銷支出，我們肯定會進行大量測試。

This concludes our question-and-answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to Ernie Garcia for any closing remarks.

我們的問答環節到此結束。我想將會議轉回給 Ernie Garcia 作閉幕詞。

Perfect. Well, thank you everyone for joining the call. To everyone on Team Carvana, thank you so much for the work you guys are doing. This has been a tough year, undoubtedly. We've made huge strides, massive changes, a huge pivot in priorities, and I'm just always reminded of how much you care and how much you fight. This is a team of fighters. You have been fighting hard, and it is showing up. It's going to keep showing up. We've still got some fighting left to do, but we're going to do it. So thanks to all. We'll talk to you guys next quarter.

完美的。好吧，謝謝大家加入電話會議。對於 Carvana 團隊的每個人，非常感謝你們所做的工作。毫無疑問，這是艱難的一年。我們取得了巨大的進步，巨大的變化，優先事項的巨大轉變，我總是想起你有多關心，你有多努力。這是一群戰士。你一直在努力奮鬥，它正在顯現。它會繼續出現。我們還有一些戰鬥要做，但我們會去做。所以感謝大家。我們將在下個季度與你們交談。

The conference is now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.

會議現已結束。感謝您參加今天的演講。您現在可以斷開連接。