Carvana Co (CVNA) 2022 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good day, and welcome to the Carvana Third Quarter 2022 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) Please note, this event is being recorded.

大家好，歡迎參加 Carvana 2022 年第三季財報電話會議。 （操作員指示）請注意，此事件正在被記錄。

I would now like to turn the conference over to Mike Levin, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

現在，我想將會議交給投資者關係副總裁 Mike Levin。請繼續。

Thank you, Matt. Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen, and thank you for joining us on Carvana's Third Quarter 2022 Earnings Conference Call. Please note that this call will be simultaneously webcast on the Investor Relations section of the company's corporate website at investors.carvana.com. The third quarter shareholder letter is also posted on the IR website. Additionally, we posted a set of supplemental financial tables for Q3 to assist investors in understanding the moving pieces with our first full quarter with the consolidation of ADESA which can be found on the Events and Presentations page of our IR website. Please note that with the full consolidation of ADESA now complete, we do not intend to provide these supplementary tables going forward.

謝謝你，馬特。女士們、先生們，下午好，感謝您參加 Carvana 2022 年第三季財報電話會議。請注意，本次電話會議將在公司網站 investors.carvana.com 的投資者關係部分同時進行網路直播。第三季股東信函也發佈在 IR 網站上。此外，我們還發布了第三季度的一組補充財務表，以幫助投資者了解我們與 ADESA 合併後的第一個完整季度的變動情況，這些表格可以在我們的 IR 網站的「活動和演示」頁面上找到。請注意，隨著 ADESA 的全面合併現已完成，我們不打算繼續提供這些補充表格。

Joining me on the call today are Ernie Garcia, Chief Executive Officer; and Mark Jenkins, Chief Financial Officer.

今天與我一起參加電話會議的還有執行長 Ernie Garcia；以及財務長馬克‧詹金斯 (Mark Jenkins)。

Before we start, I would like to remind you that the following discussion contains forward-looking statements within the meaning of the federal securities laws, including, but not limited to, Carvana's market opportunities and future financial results that involve risks and uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially from those discussed here. A detailed discussion of the material factors that cause actual results to differ from forward-looking statements can be found in the Risk Factors section of Carvana's most recent Form 10-K and our quarterly report on Form 10-Q for the first quarter of 2022. The forward-looking statements and risks in this conference call are based on current expectations as of today, and Carvana assumes no obligation to update or revise them whether as a result of new developments or otherwise. Unless otherwise noted on today's call, all comparisons are on a year-over-year basis.

在我們開始之前，我想提醒您，以下討論包含聯邦證券法含義內的前瞻性陳述，包括但不限於 Carvana 的市場機會和未來財務結果，這些陳述涉及風險和不確定性，可能導致實際結果與此處討論的結果存在重大差異。有關導致實際結果與前瞻性陳述不同的重大因素的詳細討論，請參閱 Carvana 最新的 10-K 表的風險因素部分以及我們 2022 年第一季的 10-Q 表季度報告。本次電話會議中的前瞻性陳述和風險是基於截至今天的當前預期，Carvana 不承擔因新發展或其他原因而更新或修改這些陳述和風險的義務。除非今天的電話會議另有說明，所有比較均以同比為基礎。

Our commentary today will include non-GAAP financial measures. Reconciliations between GAAP and non-GAAP metrics for our reported results can be found our shareholder letter issued today, a copy of which can be found on our Investor Relations website.

我們今天的評論將包括非公認會計準則財務指標。我們今天發布的股東信函中可以找到我們報告結果的 GAAP 和非 GAAP 指標之間的對賬，其副本可在我們投資者關係網站上找到。

And now with that said, I'd like to turn the call over to Ernie Garcia. Ernie?

現在說了這麼多，我想把電話轉給厄尼·加西亞 (Ernie Garcia)。厄尼？

Thanks, Mike, and thanks, everyone, for joining the call. The third quarter was a quarter of strong operational progress against a difficult industry and economic backdrop. We're on track with our goals from an expense and operational efficiency standpoint, but industry demand, interest rate and depreciation headwinds are slowing our progress on overall profitability. We made gains here, but they were slower than we would have liked. And these headwinds are likely to persist over the near term, making precise forecasting of that progress more difficult.

謝謝，麥克，也謝謝大家參加電話會議。在艱難的行業和經濟背景下，第三季取得了強勁的營運進展。從費用和營運效率的角度來看，我們正在實現我們的目標，但行業需求、利率和折舊逆風正在減緩我們在整體獲利方面的進展。我們在這裡取得了進展，但進展速度比我們希望的要慢。這些不利因素很可能會在短期內持續存在，使得準確預測這項進展變得更加困難。

To organize these remarks, I plan to provide our thoughts on 5 important questions. One, what is driving our expense and operational gains? Two, what are the key headwinds we face and how do changes in those dynamics impact us? Three, how do we believe we are doing relative to the industry? Four, what does all this mean for the near term? And five, what does it all mean for the long term?

為了組織這些評論，我計劃就 5 個重要問題提供我們的想法。一、是什麼推動了我們的支出和營運收益？二、我們面臨的主要阻力是什麼？這些動力的變化對我們有何影響？三、我們認為我們相對於整個產業的表現如何？四、這一切對於短期而言意味著什麼？第五，從長遠來看這一切意味著什麼？

First, what is driving our expense and operational gains? In the letter, we provided a number of data points, including that we reduced expenses by about $90 million in the quarter, $360 million on an annualized basis as well as many underlying operational metrics that are making those expense reductions possible. We're extremely proud of this progress. It is the result of an intense focus on efficiency throughout the company in the way that we manage the business, the way that we organize and set our priorities and the way that we execute day to day. As we have faced the changes in the economy, our industry and in markets over the last several quarters, the people of Carvana have come together and are doing great work. We have a lot of work left to do, but we know it, and we know how we're going to go about doing it. Thanks to everyone inside the company for all the hard work you're putting in. We still have a long way to go and there will probably be additional unexpected difficulties between here and the end of all this. We've got to keep our heads down and keep marching.

首先，是什麼推動了我們的支出和營運收益？在信中，我們提供了許多數據點，包括我們在本季度減少了約 9000 萬美元的開支，按年率計算減少了 3.6 億美元，以及許多使這些開支削減成為可能的基本營運指標。我們對這項進步感到非常自豪。這是我們整個公司在業務管理方式、組織和設定優先事項的方式以及日常執行方式上高度重視效率的結果。在過去幾個季度中，我們面臨著經濟、產業和市場的變化，Carvana 的員工團結一致，並做出了巨大的努力。我們還有很多工作要做，但我們知道這一點，也知道該如何做。感謝公司所有員工的努力。我們還有很長的路要走，從現在到這一切結束之間可能會有更多意想不到的困難。我們必須保持低調，繼續前進。

Next, what are the key headwinds we face and how do changes in those dynamics impact us? There are 3 key headwinds that we are facing right now: industry-level demand, interest rate increases and vehicle price depreciation. Let's take these one at a time. First, industry-level demand. There are many data sources available to assess industry-level demand, but regardless of the source, demand is slow. Industry data sources estimate used sales down approximately 10% to 15% year-over-year in the third quarter, and many of the forward-looking indicators that we use internally, including web searches and activity on carvana.com, indicate further slowing recently. Cars are an expensive discretionary often finance purchase that inflated much more than other goods in the economy over the last couple of years and is clearly having an impact on people's purchasing decisions.

接下來，我們面臨的主要阻力是什麼？這些動態的變化將如何影響我們？我們目前面臨三大阻力：產業需求、利率上升、汽車價格下跌。讓我們逐一討論這些問題。第一，產業層面的需求。有許多資料來源可用於評估行業級需求，但無論來源為何，需求都很緩慢。產業數據來源估計，第三季二手車銷量年減約 10% 至 15%，我們內部使用的許多前瞻性指標（包括網路搜尋和 carvana.com 上的活動）都顯示近期銷售量進一步放緩。汽車是一種昂貴的非必需品，通常需要融資購買，過去幾年其價格上漲幅度遠遠超過經濟中的其他商品，顯然對人們的購買決策產生了影響。

The good news is that historically, used cars have been a relatively resilient category and the depressed level of sales that we see today are similar to periods of fairly severe economic difficulty in the past, potentially suggesting that there is less medium-term downside than there may be for other categories. This possibility is also supported by higher depreciation rates that should, over time, make cars more affordable again and a forward interest rate curve that suggests that the majority of the interest rate increases are behind us. Regardless, we are building our plans around assumptions that the next year is a difficult one in our industry and in the economy as a whole.

好消息是，從歷史上看，二手車一直是一個相對有彈性的類別，我們今天看到的銷售低迷水平與過去相當嚴重的經濟困難時期相似，這可能表明中期下行風險比其他類別要小。這種可能性也得到了更高的折舊率的支持，隨著時間的推移，汽車將再次變得更便宜，而遠期利率曲線表明，大部分利率上漲已經過去。無論如何，我們都在製定計劃，因為我們的行業和整個經濟都將面臨困難的一年。

Next, interest rate increases. Interest rates have risen rapidly with a 2-year treasury, a good benchmark for automotive loans rising 3.9% over the last year and 2.6% since 2019. In addition, credit spreads have risen about 1% in the last year. To put this in perspective, for a customer utilizing financing, the moves in 2-year through yields plus credit spreads of last year are equivalent in their impact to the customer's monthly payment of about a $3,000 price increase.

接下來，利率上升。兩年期公債利率快速上升，這是汽車貸款的良好基準，去年上漲了 3.9%，自 2019 年以來上漲了 2.6%。此外，信貸利差在去年上升了約 1%。從這個角度來看，對於使用融資的客戶來說，2 年期收益率加上去年信用利差的變化對其影響相當於客戶每月支付約 3,000 美元的價格上漲。

As a result, for customers using financing, cars ended the quarter at their most unaffordable point ever despite the fact that retail prices have dropped roughly 10% this year. As benchmark interest rates, risk spreads and market expectations for future credit performance evolve over time, we do expect those changes to impact our other GPU and sales volumes before the market fully adjusts, which is built into our expectation that other GPU will move down in the fourth quarter relative to the third.

因此，對於使用融資的客戶來說，儘管今年汽車零售價已下降約 10%，但本季結束時汽車價格仍處於有史以來最難負擔的水平。隨著基準利率、風險利差和市場對未來信貸表現的預期隨著時間的推移而變化，我們確實預計這些變化將在市場完全調整之前影響我們的其他 GPU 和銷售量，這也符合我們對其他 GPU 在第四季度相對於第三季度將下降的預期。

Lastly, vehicle depreciation. Over the medium term, we believe vehicle depreciation is good as it is necessary to bring cars back into alignment with other goods in terms of cost and affordability and therefore is healthy for volume. In the near term, it is less clear. Two key dynamics that have a big impact on retail GPU is the average spread between acquisition prices and retail prices and the rate of daily depreciation. Historically, on average, the wholesale retail spread roughly captures the depreciation dealers expect to see prior to selling a car, which creates stability in industry retail margins that can be seen over time.

最後，車輛折舊。從中期來看，我們認為汽車折舊是好事，因為有必要讓汽車在成本和可負擔性方面與其他商品保持一致，因此對銷售有利。短期內情況還不太明朗。對零售 GPU 有重大影響的兩個關鍵動態是收購價格和零售價格之間的平均價差以及每日折舊率。從歷史上看，平均而言，批發零售價差大致反映了經銷商在出售汽車之前預計的折舊額，這使得行業零售利潤率能夠隨著時間的推移而保持穩定。

We have seen this in action recently as depreciation rates have increased over the last 2 quarters. And in both quarters, we saw acquisition spreads widen in a way that was approximately offsetting. Looking forward, we expect this to continue to be the case on average, but we don't know exactly what will play out quarter-to-quarter. We have recently seen wholesale retail spreads widen further and have also seen daily depreciation rates move up meaningfully. Given these moves, our expectation for the fourth quarter is that retail GPU will decrease relative to the third quarter. Over time, we expect this to normalize as it historically has, but the recent volatility is making it tougher call than it usually is.

我們最近看到了這種情況，因為過去兩個季度折舊率有所上升。在這兩個季度中，我們都看到收購價差以大致抵銷的方式擴大。展望未來，我們預計平均而言這種情況將繼續存在，但我們不知道每季的具體情況如何。我們最近看到批發零售價差進一步擴大，每日折舊率也大幅上升。鑑於這些舉措，我們預計第四季零售 GPU 數量將相對第三季有所下降。隨著時間的推移，我們預計這種情況會像歷史上一樣正常化，但最近的波動使得這項決定比以往更加艱難。

Moving on to how do we believe we are doing relative to the industry? This is a much more difficult question to answer simply with our results than it normally is given the dynamics discussed above as well as the volume impacts of our focus on profitability. We discussed much of this in the shareholder letter in a way that we hope to provide some clarity and understanding but to summarize our beliefs (inaudible) this.

接下來，我們認為我們相對於整個產業的表現如何？考慮到上面討論的動態以及我們對盈利能力的關注對數量的影響，這個問題比通常情況下更難僅根據我們的結果來回答。我們在致股東的信中對此進行了大量討論，希望能夠提供一些清晰度和理解度，但要總結我們的信念（聽不清楚）。

For realized sales volumes year-over-year, we are clearly taking market share relative to the industry. Quarter-over-quarter, we are most likely not taking realized sales market share relative to the industry as a whole, but it depends on which data sources we compare to. If we use our best understandings of the differential impacts to conversion for our customers versus the average customer in the industry due to the choices we are making in setting interest rates as well as the impacts driven by our focus on profitability, it is likely we are seeing somewhat meaningful gains in top funnel demand market share. We expect this to begin to show up in realized sales when the interest rate and general industry environment approaches more stability and when we stop further decreasing conversion through our profitability initiatives.

從年比實現的銷售量來看，我們明顯佔據了行業市場份額。與上一季相比，我們很可能沒有計算出相對於整個行業的實際銷售市場份額，但這取決於我們與哪些資料來源進行比較。如果我們充分利用我們制定利率的選擇以及我們對盈利能力的關注所帶來的影響，來理解我們的客戶與行業普通客戶在轉換率方面的差異影響，那麼我們很可能會看到頂級通路需求市場份額出現一些有意義的增長。我們預計，當利率和整體行業環境更加穩定，並且我們停止透過獲利措施進一步降低轉換率時，這一趨勢將開始體現在已實現的銷售額中。

Now heading to what does this mean in the near term? In the near term, our goal is clear, to march toward profitability as quickly as we can regardless of industry-level sales volumes. To achieve this, we plan to continue to rapidly reduce expenses to continue to put our focus on efficiency gains throughout every area of the company and to continue to evaluate and test what levers we should pull to maximize the number of our more profitable sales and to minimize the number of less profitable sales.

現在，這在短期內意味著什麼？就短期而言，我們的目標很明確，無論行業銷售量如何，我們都要盡快實現盈利。為了實現這一目標，我們計劃繼續快速削減開支，繼續把重點放在提高公司各個領域的效率上，並繼續評估和測試我們應該採取哪些措施來最大限度地增加利潤更高的銷售數量，並最大限度地減少利潤較低的銷售數量。

Lastly, I want to hit the question of what does this mean for the long term. This is an easy question to skip in a difficult environment, but in the end, is the most important question. Our belief is this: If we manage through the current environment as we intend to, the long term will be even brighter. All the things that define our opportunity when we started Carvana and were true a year ago when the environment felt very different are still true today. Nothing focuses us like difficulty and the last several quarters have undoubtedly been difficult. The next couple maybe as well. While it's never fun while we're in the middle of a difficult time, if we use the clarity and focus it provides, we'll be better on the side of it. This is our intention. The march continues. Mark.

最後，我想問一下這對長期而言意味著什麼。這是一個在困難的環境中很容易被忽略的問題，但最終卻是最重要的問題。我們相信：如果我們按照預期管理當前的環境，那麼長遠前景將會更加光明。當我們創立 Carvana 時，所有決定我們機會的因素，以及一年前環境截然不同時的情況，今天仍然適用。沒有什麼比困難更能讓我們集中註意力，而過去幾季無疑是困難的。下一對夫婦可能也是如此。雖然身處困境從來都不是一件有趣的事，但如果我們利用它所提供的清晰度和專注力，我們就會做得更好。這就是我們的意圖。遊行仍在繼續。標記。

Thank you, Ernie, and thank you all for joining us today. We made significant progress in Q3, executing our plan of reducing SG&A expenses and progressing toward profitability, despite significant volume headwinds driven by a variety of external and internal factors.

謝謝你，厄尼，也謝謝大家今天加入我們。儘管受到各種外部和內部因素的影響，銷量面臨巨大阻力，但我們在第三季度取得了重大進展，執行了降低銷售、一般和行政費用 (SG&A) 的計劃，並朝著盈利的方向邁進。

In Q3, retail units sold totaled 102,570, a decrease of 8%. We gained market share versus the comparable period in 2021 despite the impact of high used vehicle prices, rising interest rates and several initiatives focused on improving near-term profitability.

第三季度，零售單位銷售總量為 102,570 套，下降 8%。儘管受到二手車價格高企、利率上升以及多項旨在提高近期盈利能力的舉措的影響，與 2021 年同期相比，我們的市場份額仍有所增長。

Total revenue was $3.386 billion in Q3, a decrease of 3%. Total revenue included $193 million from ADESA, which was included in our results for the full quarter in Q3.

第三季總營收為33.86億美元，下降3%。總收入包括來自 ADESA 的 1.93 億美元，該收入已計入我們第三季的全季業績。

Total gross profit per unit was $3,500 in Q3, a decrease of $1,172 year-over-year and an increase of $132 sequentially. Due to the dynamic nature of the current environment, we will focus our more detailed commentary on sequential changes.

第三季每單位總毛利為 3,500 美元，年減 1,172 美元，較上季增加 132 美元。由於當前環境的動態特性，我們將更詳細地評論連續的變化。

Following the acquisition of ADESA, we are reporting total GPU, retail GPU and wholesale GPU, both including and excluding depreciation and amortization expense, or D&A, and share-based compensation expense associated with Ernie's 1 million unit milestone Gift or Gift SBC. Historically, Carvana has reported GPU, including D&A, while ADESA has reported gross profit excluding D&A. For the purpose of clarity, we are now providing both.

在收購 ADESA 之後，我們將報告總 GPU、零售 GPU 和批發 GPU，包括和不包括折舊和攤提費用或 D&A，以及與 Ernie 的 100 萬個里程碑禮物或禮物 SBC 相關的股權激勵費用。從歷史上看，Carvana 報告的 GPU 包括 D&A，而 ADESA 報告的毛利不包括 D&A。為了清楚起見，我們現在同時提供這兩種服務。

Total gross profit per unit, excluding D&A and Gift SBC, was $3,870 in Q3, an increase of $221 sequentially. Retail GPU was $1,131 in Q3, flat compared to $1,131 in Q2. Retail GPU, excluding D&A and Gift SBC was $1,267 in Q3 compared to $1,276 in Q2. Sequential changes in retail GPU were primarily driven by higher spreads between retail prices and acquisition prices and lower retail cost of sales, offset by higher retail depreciation rates in Q3 compared to Q2.

第三季每單位總毛利潤（不包括 D&A 和 Gift SBC）為 3,870 美元，季增 221 美元。第三季零售 GPU 的價格為 1,131 美元，與第二季的 1,131 美元持平。零售 GPU（不包括 D&A 和禮品 SBC）第三季的價格為 1,267 美元，而第二季為 1,276 美元。零售 GPU 的連續變化主要是由於零售價格與收購價格之間的價差擴大以及零售銷售成本下降，但第三季與第二季相比零售折舊率有所上升。

Wholesale GPU was $448 in Q3 compared to $383 in Q2, a sequential increase of $65. Wholesale GPU excluding D&A, was $682 in Q3 compared to $519 in Q2. Sequential changes in wholesale GPU were primarily driven by consolidating a full quarter of ADESA in Q3.

第三季 GPU 批發價為 448 美元，而第二季為 383 美元，季增 65 美元。不包括 D&A 的批發 GPU 價格在第三季為 682 美元，而第二季為 519 美元。批發 GPU 的連續變化主要受到第三季合併 ADESA 整個季度的影響。

Other GPU was $1,921 in Q3 compared to $1,854 in Q2. Sequential changes in other GPU were primarily driven by higher origination rates relative to benchmark interest rates and improved securitization credit spreads relative to Q2, partially offset by lower ancillary product attachment rates.

第三季其他 GPU 的價格為 1,921 美元，而第二季為 1,854 美元。其他 GPU 的連續變化主要是由於相對於基準利率的更高的發起率以及相對於第二季度的證券化信用利差的改善，但被較低的輔助產品附加率部分抵消。

Looking toward Q4, we expect to maintain flexibility to optimize our loan sales channel mix as the quarter progresses.

展望第四季度，我們預計將保持靈活性，隨著季度的進展優化我們的貸款銷售管道組合。

We made significant progress reducing SG&A expenses in Q3. Carvana-only SG&A expense, excluding impacts from ADESA, declined by $89 million compared to Q2. These SG&A expense reductions were broad-based, including in payroll, advertising, logistics and other SG&A expense. We expect to make continued progress on reducing SG&A expense in the coming quarters as we continue to execute our plan across all areas of the business.

我們在第三季削減銷售、一般及行政費用方面取得了重大進展。不包括 ADESA 的影響，Carvana 的銷售、一般及行政費用與第二季相比下降了 8,900 萬美元。這些銷售、一般及行政費用的削減範圍很廣，包括薪資、廣告、物流和其他銷售、一般及行政費用。隨著我們繼續在所有業務領域執行我們的計劃，我們預計未來幾季將在降低銷售、一般和行政費用方面繼續取得進展。

Our progress in the quarter led to an adjusted EBITDA improvement of $39 million in Q3 compared to Q2 despite lower retail units sold. Adjusted EBITDA margin was minus 5.9% in Q3 compared to minus 6.2% in Q2, an improvement of 0.3%. Adjusted EBITDA excludes impacts from earnings gift of personal stock to Carvana employees as well as other income and expense, which primarily includes changes in the fair value of securities, but it includes nongift share-based compensation.

儘管零售單位銷售較低，但我們在本季度取得的進展使第三季的調整後 EBITDA 與第二季相比增長了 3,900 萬美元。第三季調整後 EBITDA 利潤率為負 5.9%，而第二季為負 6.2%，改善了 0.3%。調整後的 EBITDA 不包括向 Carvana 員工贈送個人股票的收益以及其他收入和支出的影響，主要包括證券公允價值的變動，但也包括非贈與的股權激勵。

In May 2022, we outlined a stretch goal for Q4 2022 of $4,000 SG&A expense per retail unit sold, excluding D&A, SBC and ADESA expenses. This equated to a stretch goal of $4,350 to $4,450, including ADESA expenses. We are making strong progress reducing SG&A expenses on an absolute dollar basis. But due to the current volume environment, we do not expect to reach this stretch goal on a per unit basis in Q4.

2022 年 5 月，我們制定了 2022 年第四季的延伸目標，每售出一個零售單位的銷售、一般及行政費用為 4,000 美元，不包括折舊及攤銷前利潤 (D&A)、SBC 和 ADESA 費用。這相當於 4,350 美元至 4,450 美元的延伸目標，包括 ADESA 費用。我們在以絕對美元計算降低銷售、一般及行政費用方面取得了重大進展。但由於目前的數量環境，我們預期第四季的單位產量將無法達到這一目標。

Our goal is to manage the business to achieve greater than $4,000 total GPU and significant adjusted EBITDA profitability at current volume levels, while also building in flexibility to achieve profitability at higher or lower volume levels through our efficiency and cost savings initiatives.

我們的目標是管理業務，在當前銷售水平上實現超過 4,000 美元的總 GPU 和顯著的調整後 EBITDA 盈利能力，同時透過我們的效率和成本節約舉措，建立靈活性，以在更高或更低的銷量水平上實現盈利能力。

On September 30, we had approximately $4.4 billion in total liquidity resources, including $2.3 billion in cash and revolving availability and $2.1 billion in unpledged real estate and other assets, including approximately $1 billion of real estate acquired from ADESA. We also ended the quarter with approximately 1.2 million units of inspection and reconditioning center capacity at full utilization, giving us substantial infrastructure for future profitable growth.

截至 9 月 30 日，我們的總流動資金資源約為 44 億美元，其中包括 23 億美元的現金和循環資金以及 21 億美元的未抵押房地產和其他資產，其中包括從 ADESA 收購的價值約 10 億美元的房地產。本季結束時，我們的檢查和修復中心產能約為 120 萬台，已完全利用，為我們未來的獲利成長提供了堅實的基礎設施。

This strong liquidity position, our significant production capacity runway and our clear and focused operating plan positions us well on our path to achieve our goal of driving positive cash flow and becoming the largest and most profitable auto retailer.

這種強大的流動性狀況、巨大的生產能力以及清晰而專注的營運計劃使我們在實現推動正現金流和成為最大、最賺錢的汽車零售商的目標的道路上處於有利地位。

Thank you for your attention. We'll now take questions.

感謝您的關注。我們現在開始回答問題。

(Operator Instructions) And our first question will come from Chris Bottiglieri with PNB (sic) [BNP] Paribas.

（操作員指示）我們的第一個問題來自巴黎銀行 (PNB) [BNP] 的 Chris Bottiglieri。

The first one is, it appears that the broader used vehicle market may be facing incremental pressure in Q4 above and beyond what you've seen in Q3. That seems to be the sense the habit that you're seeing as well in Q4. I guess my question is like what's changing right now? Are there certain pockets of the market -- I'm not talking to Carvana specifically, you were pretty clear there, but what are you seeing in the market itself? Is it the low income consumers dropping out? Is it every customer segment behaving similarly? Like what are you seeing in the market environment itself in Q4 relative to Q3?

首先，看來更廣泛的二手車市場在第四季可能面臨比第三季更大的壓力。這似乎也是您在第四季看到的習慣。我想我的問題是現在發生了什麼變化？市場上是否存在某些特定領域——我不是專門針對 Carvana 談論的，您對此說得很清楚，但您在市場本身中看到了什麼？是低收入消費者退出了嗎？每個客戶群的行為是否都類似？與第三季相比，您認為第四季的市場環境如何？

Sure. Well, I think there's certainly a lot of headwinds. I think we've seen a tremendous amount of appreciation in car prices over the last several years. We put a stat in the shareholder letter that for a customer that is looking at car prices today and utilizing financing, their payment is up about 160% of what it would have been pre-pandemic. And I think recently, we've seen car prices depreciate to the tune of give or take 10% so far this year, but we've also seen interest rates shoot up very rapidly. And I think that, that overall has harmed affordability.

當然。嗯，我認為肯定存在著許多阻力。我認為過去幾年我們已經看到汽車價格大幅上漲。我們在致股東的信中列出了一項統計數據：對於今天關注汽車價格並使用融資的客戶來說，他們的付款金額比疫情前高出了約 160%。我認為最近，我們已經看到汽車價格今年迄今已下跌了約 10%，但我們也看到利率迅速上升。我認為，這總體上損害了人們的負擔能力。

I think it's always hard to suss out the rest of what's going on in the economy, but clearly, it feels like sentiment broadly is decreasing. There's a bunch of different statistics that we can look at around consumer confidence or consumer willingness to buy a car at any point in time. And I think that we tend to see some negative drift in those areas.

我認為，要弄清楚經濟中正在發生的其他事情總是很困難的，但顯然，感覺整體情緒正在下降。我們可以查看一系列不同的統計數據，以了解消費者信心或消費者在任何時候購買汽車的意願。我認為我們傾向於在這些領域看到一些負面趨勢。

I think we don't know exactly how that will unfold from here. I think we're trying to position the business in a way where we're well positioned to earn significant positive EBITDA. These volumes are lower volumes. We're going to keep marching out expenses as fast as we can. I do think that we see -- at the top funnel, we see that we're still taking market share and potentially at a pretty fast rate.

我認為我們不知道事情接下來會如何發展。我認為我們正在嘗試以一種能夠獲得可觀的正 EBITDA 的方式定位業務。這些卷的捲較低。我們將繼續盡快削減開支。我確實認為我們看到——在頂部漏斗中，我們看到我們仍然在佔領市場份額，並且可能以相當快的速度成長。

And so I think that leaves us hopeful for where demand can ultimately go and where sales can ultimately go over time. But I think the next 6 to 12 months are certainly more uncertain than they have been in recent periods where it was pretty reliable that kind of car sales would come in flat quarter-over-quarter. We were just focused on our own market share gains.

因此，我認為這讓我們對需求最終走向以及銷售最終走向充滿希望。但我認為，未來 6 到 12 個月的不確定性肯定比最近幾個時期更大，因為在最近幾個時期，汽車銷量環比持平是相當可靠的。我們只關注自己的市場佔有率的成長。

So I think there's a lot of things happening. I think all the things that you pointed to around demographic shifts, whether it's income or credit, whatever else, all those are active and all those are moving in the directions that you'd expect. But I don't know that there's anything particularly notable that wouldn't be expected that's occurring, just general softness, and I think we do see that across the entire industry.

所以我認為有很多事情正在發生。我認為您所指出的有關人口結構變化的所有因素，無論是收入、信貸還是其他什麼，都是活躍的，並且都在朝著您預期的方向發展。但我不知道是否發生了任何特別值得注意、意料之外的事情，只是普遍的疲軟，我認為我們確實在整個行業中看到了這種情況。

Got you. Okay. And then just given the uncertainty, can you talk about the financing outlook? Like if the world stays uncertain, it seems like the ABS markets are like periodically open and periodically not necessarily closed, but just more expensive to get deals done. Like you had to abandon the ABS markets for a couple of quarters. Do you have enough liquidity through Ally or other partners lined up that you could actually like sell those receivables? Like how should we think about that risk of being able to -- you have still a very high level of receivables you're originating. So maybe just talk about your confidence again in those receivables offloaded in this environment.

明白了。好的。那麼考慮到不確定性，您能談談融資前景嗎？如果世界繼續不確定，ABS 市場似乎會定期開放，定期關閉（不一定），但完成交易的成本會更高。就像你不得不放棄 ABS 市場幾季一樣。您是否透過 Ally 或其他合作夥伴獲得了足夠的流動資金，以便可以實際出售這些應收帳款？例如，我們應該如何看待這種風險——您仍然擁有很高的應收帳款水準。因此，也許您只是再次談論您對在這種環境下卸載的應收帳款的信心。

Sure. So yes, what I would say is I think the relationship with Ally remains extremely strong. We recently extended our floor plan line there for the next 18 months. And I think that the way that our relationship works is we're regularly in contact with one another. We're making sure that we come up with a plan that works great for both of us.

當然。是的，我想說的是，我認為與 Ally 的關係仍然非常牢固。我們最近將未來 18 個月的平面圖延伸到了那裡。我認為我們的關係的運作方式是我們彼此定期保持聯繫。我們正在確保制定對雙方都有益的計劃。

I think as we've discussed in the past, the way that we've always thought about balancing our channels is making sure that we have access to a very high-quality channel like Ally, which in good times is probably a little bit more expensive for us. But it ensures that in tougher times where the ABS market can kind of go through difficult periods, that we've got a home for our loans.

我認為，正如我們過去討論過的，我們平衡渠道的方式始終是確保我們能夠訪問像 Ally 這樣高品質的管道，雖然在經濟繁榮時期，這對我們來說可能稍微貴一些。但它確保了在 ABS 市場經歷困難時期時，我們的貸款有一個歸宿。

And so I think we feel good about the way that we've positioned that over time. We feel great about the relationship we've got. We'll be renewing that deal as we head into next year. As we have over the last several years, I don't think we have any expectations for how that renewal will go that are different than it's been in the past. We generally set that up in a way where the economics between us and Ally are set up to ensure that they have rates of return that are comparable to what they get elsewhere in the market. And our arrangement is set up in a way that is dynamic. So it's -- those adjustments have been happening in real time throughout this year as the market has been changing.

所以我認為我們對我們長期以來的定位方式感到滿意。我們對現有的關係感到非常滿意。進入明年，我們將續簽該協議。正如過去幾年一樣，我認為我們對這次續約的預期與過去沒有什麼不同。我們通常會以這樣一種方式來建立我們和 Ally 之間的經濟關係，以確保他們的回報率與他們在市場上其他地方獲得的回報率相當。我們的安排是動態的。因此，隨著市場的變化，這些調整在今年全年也一直在即時發生。

And so I don't think we'd have any expectations for something particularly discrete. They've been a great partner for us in the past, and we've gone through periods where the ABS market was within a tough spot, including COVID. And we generally try to size our commitment between us in a way that insulates us from that.

因此我認為我們不會對某些特別離散的東西抱有任何期望。他們過去一直是我們很好的合作夥伴，我們也經歷過 ABS 市場困難的時期，包括 COVID。我們通常會嘗試以一種可以避免這種情況的方式來衡量我們之間的承諾。

So I think that's generally the plan there. And I think, as I said, we feel good about it. It's a great relationship. They've been great to us. And hopefully, they feel the same way about how we've been to them.

所以我認為這基本上就是那裡的計劃。而且我認為，正如我所說的，我們對此感覺很好。這是一種很好的關係。他們對我們很好。並且希望他們對於我們對待他們的方式有著同樣的感受。

Our next question will come from Rajat Gupta with JPMorgan.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Rajat Gupta。

Based on your fourth quarter unit and GPU guide, it looks like the fourth quarter cash burn, excluding inventory, is likely to be similar to the third quarter. And you might need to either draw on the revolver again or tap into the real estate. Should we expect you to start tapping into the real estate in the near term already or maybe you've already done it in the fourth quarter? And if yes, how should we think about the cap rates or if you out for a sales leaseback or maybe LTVs in case of a mortgage? And I have a follow-up.

根據您第四季的單位和 GPU 指南，看起來第四季的現金消耗（不包括庫存）可能與第三季相似。您可能需要再次動用左輪手槍或利用房地產。我們是否應該期待您在近期開始涉足房地產行業，或者您可能已經在第四季度這樣做了？如果是的話，我們應該如何考慮資本化率，或者在抵押貸款的情況下，您是否考慮過售後回租或 LTV？我還有一個後續問題。

Sure. Yes. So on Q4, Ernie touched along a lot of the key dynamics. We do expect volume to be lower sequentially relative to Q3. We also expect GPU to be lower sequentially relative to Q3 as well due to some of the dynamics that Ernie discussed. At the same time, we also expect SG&A expenses to be down significantly as well as we continue to execute on all of our efficiency and cost savings initiatives. And so those are obviously offsetting -- obviously offsetting factors. We also, I would add, expect capital expenditures to continue to come down in Q4 relative to Q3. So I think those are some of the dynamics on Q4 specifically.

當然。是的。因此在第四季度，厄尼觸及了許多關鍵動態。我們確實預期交易量相對於第三季而言會季減。由於 Ernie 討論的一些動態，我們也預期 GPU 相對於第三季也將環比下降。同時，我們也預期銷售、一般及行政費用將大幅下降，同時我們將繼續執行所有提高效率和節省成本的措施。所以這些顯然是抵銷因素——顯然是抵銷因素。我還想補充一點，我們預計第四季的資本支出相對於第三季將繼續下降。所以我認為這些是第四季的一些具體動態。

In terms of our real estate assets, obviously, we have a very large and attractive real estate portfolio. We just acquired a nationwide network of auction sites from ADESA. I think those are large sites and very desirable markets, we think are really attractive pieces of real estate. That was a big motivation for us undertaking that acquisition. We've also been building some large IRCs in attractive markets around the country as well. And so I think we have a great real estate portfolio.

就我們的房地產資產而言，顯然我們擁有非常龐大且具吸引力的房地產投資組合。我們剛從 ADESA 收購了一個全國性的拍賣網站網路。我認為這些都是大型地塊和非常理想的市場，我們認為是真正有吸引力的房地產。這是我們進行此次收購的一大動機。我們也在全國各地有吸引力的市場建立了一些大型 IRC。所以我認為我們擁有出色的房地產投資組合。

In terms of how we're thinking about financing that, I do think we have multiple options for the way we can finance that. Traditionally, in history, we've used sale-leaseback transactions. I think we've executed about $500 million of those so far in our history as a company. But I think there can also be other forms of financing for large real estate portfolio.

關於我們如何考慮融資，我確實認為我們有多種融資方式可供選擇。傳統上，在歷史上，我們一直採用售後回租交易。我認為，我們公司迄今為止已經執行了約 5 億美元的此類計劃。但我認為對於大型房地產投資組合也可以有其他形式的融資。

So I think that's something we're thinking about. I don't think the -- I don't think -- we're going to be thoughtful about the time line on executing any real estate transactions, but we do feel like we've got a really nice base of assets there.

所以我認為這是我們正在考慮的事情。我不認為——我不認為——我們會仔細考慮執行任何房地產交易的時間表，但我們確實覺得我們在那裡擁有非常好的資產基礎。

Got it. Have you started -- so you're not tapped into any yet, right, that's in front of you so far?

知道了。你已經開始了——所以你還沒有利用任何機會，對吧，這是目前你面臨的情況？

I think we're going to be very thoughtful about the best way and timing for financing those assets.

我認為我們會非常認真地考慮為這些資產融資的最佳方式和時機。

Got it. Maybe as a follow-up. You mentioned that you're looking to be profitable at $4,000 plus GPU and current volume levels. That would imply somewhere close to $100 million plus that needs to come out from those quarterly SG&A level. Can you highlight maybe a few areas where there is still some low-hanging fruit or any initiatives that are already underway to get there? And roughly, any sense of timing when you do expect to get there as this might be independent of the macro, I guess.

知道了。也許作為後續行動。您提到您希望在 4,000 美元以上的 GPU 和當前的銷售水平下實現盈利。這意味著需要從季度銷售、一般及行政費用中支出近 1 億美元以上。您能否重點介紹一些仍有待實現的成果的領域，或者有哪些舉措已經在實施中？大致來說，我猜，當你預計到達那裡時，任何時間感可能與宏觀無關。

Sure. So I mean I would start by just pointing to the progress that we made last quarter where we reduced expenses by about $90 million quarter-over-quarter, which is obviously a big number and is a meaningful number relative to the step-downs that we look to make in the future.

當然。所以我的意思是，我首先要指出的是，我們上個季度取得的進展，我們上一季的支出減少了約 9000 萬美元，這顯然是一個很大的數字，而且相對於我們希望在未來實現的削減而言，這是一個有意義的數字。

I think undoubtedly, as you continue to march down expenses, it gets -- every incremental dollar gets a little harder than the last, but we're still at levels of expense that are much higher than we would like to be, and we're still at a place where there's obviously some low-hanging fruit. I think if we look at the gains that we made last quarter, it's probably most fair to massage out the impacts of the reduction in force that we had in May, which probably reduces that kind of $90 million in gains to something more like $70 million, but still a really meaningful number.

我認為毫無疑問，隨著你繼續削減開支，每一美元的增加都會比上一美元更困難，但我們的開支水平仍然比我們希望的要高得多，而且我們仍然處於一個顯然有一些唾手可得的成果的境地。我認為，如果我們看一下上個季度取得的收益，最公平的做法可能是消除 5 月份裁員的影響，這可能會將 9,000 萬美元的收益減少到 7,000 萬美元左右，但這仍然是一個非常有意義的數字。

And I think that was very broad-based. That came across the board. In other payroll, we reduced expense by $20 million and advertising, $14 million and logistics, $14 million, which is 20% of logistics spend quarter-over-quarter. And then we made gains across the board everywhere else. And other, we cut out $19 million of cost, which was 8% overall. And that was all powered by a lot of operational gains across all of our operational groups.

我認為這具有非常廣泛的基礎。這是大家都知道的。在其他薪資方面，我們減少了 2,000 萬美元的支出，廣告支出減少了 1,400 萬美元，物流支出減少了 1,400 萬美元，佔物流支出的 20%。然後我們在其他各個方面都取得了全面進步。另外，我們也削減了 1,900 萬美元的成本，佔總數的 8%。這一切都得益於我們所有營運團隊的大量營運收益。

The logistics network had a bunch of meaningful improvements. Network utilization was up 8% quarter-over-quarter. We've seen average shipping miles per sale down 10%. That's continued to go down further since the quarter ended. We've rolled out a new management structure at our logistics hubs, only a small subset so far. But in those hubs, we're seeing an additional 10% of gains in kind of cost per mile. And we expect to roll that out across the country over the coming quarters.

物流網絡得到了一系列有意義的改進。網路利用率季增8%。我們發現每筆銷售的平均運輸里程下降了 10%。自本季結束以來，這一數字持續下降。我們已經在物流中心推出了新的管理架構，但目前為止只是一小部分。但在這些樞紐，我們看到每英里成本額外增加了 10%。我們預計將在未來幾季內在全國推廣這項措施。

So I think we're really excited about the gains that we're making. And we put a table in the letter that tries to break that down, so you can kind of see where that's all coming from, and it really is coming from across the business. And we expect gains from here to also come from across the business because there is still a lot of low-hanging fruit.

所以我認為我們對所取得的進展感到非常興奮。我們在信中放了一個表格，試圖將其分解，這樣你就可以看到所有這些的來源，而且它們確實來自整個企業。我們預計這裡的收益也將來自整個業務，因為仍有許多唾手可得的成果。

Our next question will come from Nick Jones with JMP Securities.

我們的下一個問題來自 JMP Securities 的 Nick Jones。

I guess just taking a big step back and looking at next year, is it kind of for used car retail? Is it really just kind of seeing prices come down and affordability come down? Or will this be difficult if OEMs can't kind of put more cars into the ecosystem? I guess kind of how are you thinking about what kind of key indicators to you indicate things are kind of normalizing as we kind of get through 4Q and start looking into next year?

我想，退一步來看，展望明年，這對二手車零售來說是什麼情況？這真的只是看到價格下降和負擔能力下降嗎？或者如果 OEM 無法將更多汽車投入生態系統，這會很困難嗎？我想，當我們度過第四季並開始展望明年時，您認為哪些關鍵指標可以表明情況正在正常化？

I think that's probably a very complicated question. So I think all we can do is kind of reach back in history and try to give you some data points that we think might be relevant. I think the point that you've made about OEMs producing fewer cars over the last couple of years is correct and relevant. Although I will say that if we go back to the 2008, 2009 recession, there were dramatically more cars pulled out of the ecosystem during that period. And if we look at used car sales over the next several years, they were pretty marginally impacted by that. I think debatably in the data, you can kind of see an echo of that decrease in OEM production, but it's not particularly pronounced. And I think the reduction in volume over the last couple of years, I said, has been a small fraction of the reduction volume over the couple of years surrounding that recession.

我認為這可能是一個非常複雜的問題。所以我認為我們所能做的就是回顧歷史並嘗試為您提供一些我們認為可能相關的數據點。我認為您提到的關於過去幾年原始設備製造商生產的汽車數量減少的觀點是正確的，而且很有意義。不過，我想說，如果我們回顧 2008 年、2009 年的經濟衰退，那段時期退出生態系統的汽車數量急劇增加。如果我們觀察未來幾年的二手車銷售情況，就會發現其受到的影響相當小。我認為，從數據中可以看出 OEM 產量下降的跡象，但並不是特別明顯。我認為過去幾年的減量只是經濟衰退前後幾年減量很小的一部分。

I think cars also inflated dramatically relative to other goods in a dynamic that I think is pretty abnormal and unprecedented, at least in my knowledge set. Cars really moved up materially in cost. And the rest of kind of good in the economy for a long time were relatively stable. And now kind of cars are really coming down in cost at the same time that other goods in the economy are going up. And so I think debatably on kind of like a relative affordability, relative value basis, cars are potentially moving in a good direction.

我認為汽車價格相對於其他商品也大幅上漲，這種動態至少在我的知識範圍內是相當不正常且前所未有的。汽車成本確實大幅上漲。而經濟體中的其他好東西長期以來都相對穩定。現在，汽車的價格確實在下降，而經濟中其他商品的價格卻在上漲。因此，我認為，從相對可負擔性和相對價值的角度來看，汽車有可能朝著好的方向發展。

I think that may also be true just depending on what your view is of rates, but if we use the forward interest rate curve as an indication of where rates are going to go, there should be more of the increases behind us than there are in front of us. And for most customers who use financing to buy a car, that's obviously a meaningful input.

我認為這也可能是正確的，只是取決於你對利率的看法，但如果我們使用遠期利率曲線來指示利率的走向，那麼我們過去的成長應該比我們未來的成長更多。對於大多數使用融資買車的客戶來說，這顯然是一項有意義的投資。

I think if we look back to 2008 and 2009 as well, and we try to say, where did the used car market bottom, it did probably bottom, give or take, 6 months before the stock market bottomed and maybe a little longer than that before like the economy bottomed in some total. I think that did correspond at the time with roughly when the fed started cutting interest rates, which who knows when that happens in this cycle. But I think that's how that played out last cycle. And as I said, I think there's a lot of dynamics that are pretty different right now and pretty unprecedented.

我認為，如果我們回顧 2008 年和 2009 年，並試圖說出二手車市場在哪裡觸底，那麼它可能已經觸底，大約比股市觸底早 6 個月，甚至可能比經濟觸底早一點。我認為這確實與美聯儲開始降息的時間大致相對應，但誰知道在這個週期中什麼時候會發生這種情況。但我認為上個週期的情況就是這樣的。正如我所說，我認為現在有很多動態非常不同且非常前所未有。

So I think without trying to look at everything like the glass is half full, I do think -- we want to make sure that we prepare for the worst, but I do think there's reasons to believe that there could be some good things that can happen in auto relative to other categories over the next 12 months. And I think those are driven by the fact that cars are extremely expensive. They're extremely sensitive to interest rates. And there's been a lot of movement in those areas recently. And it looks more likely that some of that movement will unwind in the future than not.

因此，我認為，我們不必總是樂觀地看待所有事情，我確實認為——我們要確保為最壞的情況做好準備，但我確實認為，有理由相信，在未來 12 個月內，汽車行業相對於其他行業可能會出現一些好的情況。我認為這是因汽車極其昂貴而導致的。他們對利率極為敏感。最近這些地區發生了許多動靜。而且看起來，未來這種運動有可能會逐漸減弱。

So we'll be paying attention like everyone else will. I think we'll be setting up the business to be as flexible as it possibly can be. We'll be driving down expenses as quickly as possible. And like I said, planning for the worst and hoping for the best. But it's a hard one to call, I think, at this point.

因此，我們會像其他人一樣關注。我認為我們將使業務設置得盡可能靈活。我們將盡快降低開支。就像我說的，做最壞的打算，抱最好的希望。但我認為，現在還很難下結論。

Got it. And maybe just one quick follow-up on GPU. How at risk is GPU from some of these factors like depreciation rates? I mean how much -- how should we think about that kind of into 4Q and into next year? Can that compress kind of quite a bit? Or do you feel comfortable that it's kind of range-bound and you can protect GPU to an extent?

知道了。也許只是對 GPU 的一個快速跟進。 GPU 受折舊率等因素影響有多大？我的意思是——我們應該如何考慮第四季和明年的情況？這樣能壓縮很多嗎？或者您覺得它有點範圍限制並且您可以在一定程度上保護 GPU？

So let me start with the market factors, and then I'll kind of roll into the things that we're in control of. I think the first and simplest mental model for all this is that different players in the industry, whether we're talking about the finance industry or the automotive retail industry, are generally trying to kind of achieve a certain profit for the efforts that they're undertaking, right? And so I think, over time, there's obviously kind of ballast in the market that is trying to kind of find its normal range.

因此，讓我先從市場因素開始，然後再談談我們能夠控制的事情。我認為所有這一切的第一個也是最簡單的思維模型是，行業中的不同參與者，無論我們談論的是金融業還是汽車零售業，通常都試圖透過他們正在進行的努力獲得一定的利潤，對嗎？因此我認為，隨著時間的推移，市場顯然會試圖找到其正常範圍。

I think that it is probably true that, that ballast is stronger in the forces that impact retail GPU than finance GPU. And that's because in our view at least, retailers have much more similar cost structures. They have much more similar profit goals. They don't have variation in input costs. They tend to not have huge cash cushions, which puts in this well where they need to kind of earn period to period. And I think that's why if you look over time, you see a lot of correlation between depreciation rates and wholesale retail spreads, and you see a lot of stability in retail margins across many retailers across many cycles.

我認為，壓艙物對零售 GPU 的影響可能比對金融 GPU 的影響更大。這是因為至少在我們看來，零售商的成本結構更相似。他們的利潤目標更加相似。他們的投入成本沒有改變。他們往往沒有大量的現金儲備，這導致他們需要不時地賺錢。我認為這就是為什麼如果你觀察一段時間，你會發現折舊率和批發零售價差之間存在很大的相關性，並且你會看到許多零售商的零售利潤率在多個週期內都很穩定。

And so I think from a market force perspective, that has historically been a pretty stable number. And I think that would be our expectation going forward. But I also think that we're in a period where some of those moves are just happening very, very fast. And I think when they happen very fast, I think it leaves room for either kind of error relative to what we've seen in the past. And so I think we need to prepare for that.

因此我認為從市場力量的角度來看，從歷史上看這是一個相當穩定的數字。我認為這將是我們未來的期望。但我也認為，我們正處於一些舉措發生得非常非常快的時期。我認為，當它們發生得非常快時，與我們過去所見的情況相比，它為任何一種錯誤都留下了空間。所以我認為我們需要為此做好準備。

I think on the finance GPU side, I think there's room for those forces to be a little bit slower. Different finance companies have different underlying cost of funds and utilize different methods for passing on cost of fund increases to their customers. We've seen evidence for many finance companies out there that they've been passing on cost of funds more in line with fed funds than with 2-year treasury, which is more of the benchmark that we use.

我認為在金融 GPU 方面，這些力量還有稍微放緩的空間。不同的金融公司有不同的資金基礎成本，並採用不同的方法將資金成本增加轉嫁給客戶。我們已經看到許多金融公司的證據表明，他們轉嫁的資金成本與聯邦基金更一致，而不是與兩年期國債一致，後者更像是我們使用的基準。

I think to the extent that's true, once kind of treasury is correctly predicting what fed fund is going to do over the next 2 years, it should stabilize and then the fed funds rate would likely continue to go up and kind of that gap would collapse and that would probably be helpful for us, both in terms of finance GPU and in terms of retail sales volumes that are driven by the quality offers that we give to our financing customers.

我認為，如果情況屬實，一旦財政部正確預測未來兩年聯邦基金利率的走勢，它就會穩定下來，然後聯邦基金利率可能會繼續上升，差距就會縮小，這可能對我們有幫助，無論是在金融 GPU 方面，還是在零售量方面，這都受到我們向融資客戶提供的優質服務所推動。

But I do think that just given that, that's a market that's dominated by fewer players with more variation input costs and who do have cash cushions who can absorb different strategies, I think there's more risk that, that could move around in more abnormal ways relative to history. But I think we're just going to have to watch that and see it play out.

但我確實認為，鑑於這個市場由更少的參與者主導，這些參與者的投入成本變化更大，而且他們確實擁有可以吸收不同策略的現金緩衝，我認為存在更大的風險，而且相對於歷史而言，這種風險可能會以更不正常的方式波動。但我認為我們只需要觀察並看看它的結果。

Now what's in our control? What's in our control is where we set price and where we set interest rates and where we set bids on cars that we're buying from customers. And I think that in all those areas, there's probably a little bit of room for us to be able to adjust to an environment where underlying costs, regardless of what one of those costs take, go up. If it's our -- the input cost of our cars or the cost of financing for our customers, I do think we have some natural offsets there where we likely have some room.

現在我們能控制什麼？我們可以控制的是在哪裡設定價格、在哪裡設定利率以及在哪裡對我們從客戶那裡購買的汽車進行出價。我認為，在所有這些領域，我們可能都有一點空間來適應這樣一種環境：無論哪種成本，基礎成本都會上漲。如果這是我們的汽車投入成本或客戶融資成本，我確實認為我們有一些自然的抵消，我們可能有一些空間。

And so as we said, kind of I think our #1 goal is going to be really focused on expenses in this environment, really focused on being purposeful about driving more of our most profitable sales and fewer of our less profitable sales, pay very close attention to what's going on in the world around us as it's moving as dynamically as it has been, and then pull the levers that we've got control of to try to do the best we can to manage through it all. And I think that's the plan. And like I said, we'll be paying close attention from here. There's a lot of room for things to vary relative to the past over the next couple of quarters.

正如我們所說的，我認為我們的首要目標將真正專注於這種環境下的開支，真正專注於有目的地推動更多最賺錢的銷售，減少利潤較低的銷售，密切關注我們周圍世界正在發生的事情，因為它一直在動態地發展，然後拉動我們能夠控制的槓桿，盡我們所能管理這一切。我認為這就是計劃。正如我所說的，我們將密切關注。未來幾個季度，情況與過去相比還有很大的變化空間。

Our next question will come from Adam Jonas with Morgan Stanley.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的亞當喬納斯。

Ernie, does the business need more equity capital? And would your family consider giving up control if that was required to maintain the company as a going concern?

厄尼，公司需要更多股本嗎？如果為了維持公司的持續經營，您的家人會考慮放棄控制權嗎？

So I think you'll -- as you see here, our goals are going to be on driving down expenses and trying to get positive EBITDA as quickly as we can. We've got a bunch of committed liquidity. We've got a bunch of real estate. And I think that we feel like that puts us in a good position to ride out this storm. And we're making great moves inside the company.

所以我認為你會——正如你在這裡看到的，我們的目標是降低開支並儘快獲得正的 EBITDA。我們擁有大量承諾的流動資金。我們擁有大量房地產。我認為這讓我們處於一個有利位置來度過這場風暴。我們在公司內部也採取了重大措施。

So I think that we're extremely optimistic about riding all that out. And then I just think as it relates to hypotheticals, we'll stay away from those. We're just going to keep running our play and moving forward.

所以我認為，我們對度過這一切非常樂觀。然後我只是認為，只要它與假設相關，我們就會遠離它們。我們只是將繼續我們的比賽並繼續前進。

All right, Ernie. Just as a follow-up. On CapEx, the $90 million in the quarter, backing out the first half, was that gap between the $50 million target? How much of that was ADESA? And you said you'd target a reduction, but I didn't know if you could identify a bit of a quantum from the -- into fourth quarter of how much that could be reduced. Appreciate it.

好的，厄尼。只是作為後續行動。就資本支出而言，本季的支出為 9,000 萬美元，與上半年相比，是否與 5,000 萬美元的目標存在差距？其中有多少是 ADESA 的？您說過您將以削減為目標，但我不知道您是否能從第四季度確定可以削減多少。非常感謝。

Sure. We -- I think we initially laid out some CapEx targets by quarter in May. And I think our budget for Q3 was $100 million at the time, and I think we came just under that at $90 million. And our target at the time for Q4 was $50 million.

當然。我們——我想我們最初在五月按季度製定了一些資本支出目標。我認為我們當時第三季的預算是 1 億美元，而我們的實際預算略低於這個數字，為 9000 萬美元。我們當時第四季的目標是 5000 萬美元。

Next question will come from John Colantuoni with Jefferies.

下一個問題來自 Jefferies 的 John Colantuoni。

So just curious if you could lay out which areas of the industry you saw the biggest deterioration relative to your expectations last quarter and how much those areas of surprise impacted vehicle GPU and SG&A per unit. I guess what I'm asking is if you look back at those areas of surprise, can you help size how much progress you would have made on your operational goals absent the softening macro?

所以我很好奇，您是否可以列出上個季度相對於您的預期，您看到行業中哪些領域的惡化程度最大，以及這些意外領域對汽車 GPU 和每單位 SG&A 的影響有多大。我想問的是，如果你回顧這些令人驚訝的領域，你能否幫助衡量如果沒有宏觀經濟疲軟，你在營運目標上會取得多大的進展？

Sure. I think when we laid out our operating plan in May, we talked about several goals that we laid out for the end of this year, and we kind of talked about how -- in order to hit those goals, we would expect to get a little bit of help from units. So we're clearly in a spot where units have moved in the wrong direction over the last quarter. And I think that, that's probably the area where there's been the biggest change relative to what our expectations would have been then.

當然。我想，當我們在五月制定營運計劃時，我們討論了今年年底要實現的幾個目標，並且討論了為了實現這些目標，我們希望從各部門獲得一些幫助。因此，我們顯然處於上個季度單位走勢錯誤的境地。我認為，這可能是與我們當時的預期相比變化最大的領域。

Now I think a lot has moved, right? We've seen interest rates move up materially and most customers use financing to buy a car. We've seen depreciation rates move up quite a bit. We've seen that probably slow down our progress on GPU as we focus on originating more profitable sales and fewer less profitable sales. I think the kind of line of which sales you want to originate moves up and down with GPU. And then you also have kind of just the broader headwinds in the industry.

現在我認為很多事情都已經發生了變化，對嗎？我們看到利率大幅上升，大多數客戶都以融資方式購買汽車。我們已經看到折舊率大幅上升。我們已經看到，這可能會減緩我們在 GPU 上的進展，因為我們專注於創造更有利可圖的銷售，減少利潤較低的銷售。我認為您想要發起的銷售線類型會隨著 GPU 而上下移動。然後你還會遇到行業中更廣泛的阻力。

So I think those have been the adjustments that we've been making in real time as we've been adjusting to the changing world, just like everyone else. I think -- again, I think we got to be careful with hypotheticals, but I think to just try to provide something of a framework, I do think that in short periods of time and within reasonable range of units, today, expenses and units are moving somewhat independently, right? They're certainly not completely independent. They're obviously variable costs involved with selling a car. But when you're overbuilt, the underlying variable costs are obviously much, much lower.

所以我認為這些都是我們在適應不斷變化的世界時即時做出的調整，就像其他人一樣。我認為——再說一次，我認為我們必須謹慎對待假設，但我認為只是嘗試提供某種框架，我確實認為在短時間內和合理的單位範圍內，今天，費用和單位在某種程度上是獨立變動的，對嗎？他們當然不是完全獨立的。它們顯然是與銷售汽車有關的變動成本。但當建築過度時，底層的變動成本顯然要低得多。

And so I think had units been higher, I think it could have made a material difference to where our results were on a per unit basis. But I think, like I said, all we can do is kind of keep doing the best job we can forecasting the world in front of us, recognize that it's probably better to miss conservative and to miss aggressive and then try to drive down expenses and make the best decisions we can, pulling the other levers as we manage through it. And so that's what we'll continue to do.

因此，我認為，如果單位數量更高，那麼我們的單位結果可能會發生重大變化。但我認為，就像我說的，我們所能做的就是繼續盡最大努力預測我們面前的世界，認識到保守和激進可能更好，然後嘗試降低開支，做出我們能做出的最佳決策，並在我們管理的過程中利用其他槓桿。所以我們會繼續這樣做。

Great. And I wanted to ask about your expectations for how used car prices coming down in the coming months impacts used cars demand. Do you see consumers waiting for used car prices to hit a floor before buying, picks up more materially? Or do you see there being more of a linear relationship between declining prices and rising demand? And at what point do we start to see that material uptick in used car velocity? Do prices need to reach prepandemic prices or 5% above prepandemic prices? I'm curious if you sort of thought about that at all.

偉大的。我想問一下您對未來幾個月二手車價格下跌將如何影響二手車需求的預期。您是否認為消費者在等待二手車價格觸底後再購買的現象會更加明顯？或者您認為價格下降和需求上升之間存在更多的線性關係？那麼，什麼時候我們會開始看到二手車銷售速度出現實質的上升呢？價格是否需要達到疫情前水準或比疫情前價格高出 5%？我很好奇您是否考慮過這個問題。

Sure. I think they're all good questions, and I think they're all hard to answer. What I would say is I think probably all those different forces are continuous forces. And then there's kind of the unknown of just what our consumer is going to be feeling as we head through the next 6 to 12 months. Depending on everything else that's going on in the economy, I think that's pretty hard to call.

當然。我認為這些都是好問題，但我認為這些問題都很難回答。我想說的是，我認為所有這些不同的力量可能都是連續的力量。而在接下來的 6 到 12 個月裡，我們也不知道消費者會有什麼樣的感受。我認為這很難說，這取決於經濟中正在發生的其他一切。

I don't think that there's -- we don't believe that there's any kind of particular lines that prices have to drop below. We just think the kind of lower is better. And we think the consumer spent a lot over the last 18 months reading article after article about how expensive cars were. And that probably is not helpful in a way that's unbelievably difficult to measure. But we see pop out in some surveys of consumer perceptions of how good of a time it is to buy a car right now.

我認為不存在——我們不相信價格必須跌破任何特定的底線。我們只是認為較低的更好。我們認為，在過去的 18 個月裡，消費者花了很多錢閱讀一篇又一篇關於汽車昂貴的文章。而這可能並沒有什麼幫助，而且很難衡量。但我們在一些消費者看法調查中發現，現在是買車的好時機。

So I think what we want, I think, is to root for the fundamentals, which is we want to root for interest rates to stabilize. We want to root for car prices to go down and get more affordable for our customers. We want to root for economic stability. And I think all of those things are helpful. And I think all of those are also under uncertainty, and so we wouldn't want to precisely call when those forces start to move in our direction.

所以我認為我們想要的是維護基本面，也就是維護利率的穩定。我們希望汽車價格下降，為我們的客戶提供更實惠的汽車價格。我們希望實現經濟穩定。我認為所有這些都是有幫助的。我認為所有這些都存在不確定性，因此我們不想準確地預測這些力量何時開始朝我們這個方向發展。

Our next question will come from Seth Basham with Wedbush Securities.

我們的下一個問題來自 Wedbush Securities 的 Seth Basham。

You're taking actions to improve GPU, but those actions are having to be impact on unit sales even beyond market forces. And in the fourth quarter, you're anticipating volumes and GPUs to be down sequentially. Do you take more drastic actions in one direction or the other here to improve on those metrics even as you consider the macro forces?

您正在採取行動來改進 GPU，但這些行動必須對單位銷售產生影響，甚至超越市場力量。在第四季度，您預計交易量和 GPU 數量將連續下降。即使考慮到宏觀力量，您是否會在某個方向上採取更激烈的行動來改善這些指標？

I think we're going to try to miss aggressive is what I would say. And we've got the whole company pushing hard in this direction of managing expenses down. And I do think the progress that we've made is great. And I do, once again, I want to point to the fact that I think there's a lot of people inside Carvana doing some of the best and fastest most effective work they've ever done. I think as a company, we're getting more done now than we ever have. And I think that it's unfortunate is coming at the time we're facing so many headwinds and so it's a little bit harder to see the fruits of all that labor.

我想說的是，我們會盡力避免採取激進的行動。我們全公司都在努力降低開支。我確實認為我們所取得的進展是巨大的。我確實想再次指出，我認為 Carvana 內部有很多人正在做他們所做過的最好、最快、最有效的工作。我認為作為一家公司，我們現在完成的工作比以往都要多。我認為不幸的是，我們正面臨著如此多的阻力，因此很難看到所有勞動的成果。

But I think that there's a lot of great work being done. And I think that in the fullness of time, that will all kind of ultimately show up. But I think for now, it's more of the same. I just think we keep our heads down and keep fighting through that. And then when we get to the other side of this, really, which I would define in kind of 2 steps. I think one big move is just stability. Once rates stop going up, and we get to a spot where there is a little bit of stability in the economy, even if car sales stay at a depressed level and we're able to just kind of continue to grow our demand market share from there, I think that puts us in a really good spot.

但我認為已經有很多出色的工作正在完成。我認為隨著時間的推移，這一切最終都會顯現出來。但我認為就目前而言，情況大致相同。我只是認為我們應該埋頭苦幹，繼續奮鬥。然後，當我們到達另一端時，實際上，我會用兩個步驟來定義。我認為一個大的舉措就是穩定。一旦利率停止上升，經濟就會稍微穩定下來，即使汽車銷售仍然處於低迷水平，我們也能夠繼續擴大需求市場份額，我認為這會讓我們處於一個非常有利的位置。

And then I think once you get to the extremely exciting place where the entire industry turns around, I think that's great because then I think we have double tailwinds there. We have kind of our own market share gains that we would expect to get that would be accentuated by increase in GPU, which make more sales more attractive for us to go attack. And then you'd also have the tailwinds of the industry itself. But I think we're just kind of not planning for that for now. We're just trying to drive down expenses and we'll pay attention and make adjustments as we need to.

然後我認為，一旦你到達整個行業轉變的極其令人興奮的地方，我認為這很棒，因為我認為我們在那裡有雙重順風。我們預計自己的市佔率會有所成長，而 GPU 的成長將進一步增強這種成長，從而增加銷量，吸引我們進一步進攻。然後你還會得到業界本身的順風。但我認為我們目前還沒有為此做計劃。我們只是想降低開支，我們會專注並根據需要做出調整。

Just to follow up, considering you have capacity for 1.4 million units and you're on a run rate of $400,000 or less, and you have a lot of markets that are doing low volumes and aren't near IRCs, wouldn't it be prudent at this point in time to IRCs and pull out of some markets?

只是為了跟進，考慮到您的產能為 140 萬台，而您的運行率為 40 萬美元或更低，並且您有很多市場銷量較低且不在 IRC 附近，那麼此時 IRC 並退出一些市場是否是明智之舉？

So I think, as I said, I'm going to say one level probably more abstract than you wish here, but I think we're definitely going to be taking actions to try and drive down expenses as quickly as we feel like we responsibly can. And we have been, and you can see kind of the benefits there in our results. Again, we dropped expenses by $90 million last quarter, quarter-over-quarter. That's pretty fast. And that's due to a lot of choices we made across the company and a lot of great execution, and our goal is to continue doing that.

所以我認為，正如我所說的，我要說的一個層面可能比你希望的更抽象，但我認為我們肯定會採取行動，盡快以我們認為負責任的方式降低開支。我們一直在努力，您可以從我們的成果中看到其中的好處。再次，我們上個季度的支出比上一季減少了 9,000 萬美元。這相當快。這是因為我們整個公司做出了很多選擇，並且執行得很好，我們的目標是繼續這樣做。

Our next question will come from Brian Nagel with Oppenheimer.

我們的下一個問題來自奧本海默公司的布萊恩·納格爾。

So first question I have, we talked a lot about the degree to which you're working on the expense side of the business and then the challenges out there. So in the nearer term, as you're contingent with these demand headwinds, I know they're big in terms of both affordability and you're probably confidence, is there any other levers that Carvana could pull to try to offset that from the demand side or there are tools at your disposal that you would consider pulling?

所以我的第一個問題是，我們討論了很多關於您在業務費用方面的工作程度以及面臨的挑戰。因此，從短期來看，由於您要應對這些需求逆風，我知道這些逆風對負擔能力和您的信心都影響很大，Carvana 是否可以利用其他槓桿來嘗試從需求方面抵消這些逆風，或者您是否考慮使用其他工具？

Sure. Something we haven't talked about on this call is I do think the underlying demand picture looks better than the sales picture in our minds at least. I think if we -- one way to try to massage out kind of differential impacts of kind of interest rate policies between us and other players and to massage out some of the impacts of rising rates is to just look at the sales volume that we have for customers that use cash to buy cars from us. And so if we look at that, we grew by over 20% year-over-year in the quarter, which was over 30% faster than the rest of the company.

當然。我們在這次電話會議上沒有談到的是，我確實認為至少在我們看來，潛在的需求狀況比銷售情況更好。我認為，如果我們——嘗試消除我們與其他參與者之間的利率政策差異影響以及消除利率上升的部分影響的一種方法是查看我們使用現金從我們這裡購買汽車的客戶的銷售量。因此，如果我們看一下，我們會發現本季我們的年成長率超過 20%，比公司其他部門快 30% 以上。

So that's pretty meaningful gains there. I think we also have spoken a bit abstractly about many of these choices we're making to try to pursue more profitable sales and to forego less profitable sales across the company. That takes many, many different forms. But I think the easiest form to kind of understand there and for us to articulate is to just look at different regions in the country. So if we look at the middle of the country, which is where we have many more of our inspection centers and many more cars that are closer to our customers, we grew 4% quarter-over-quarter. If we look at the 2 coasts, we shrunk pretty meaningfully quarter-over-quarter. And so the middle of the country -- or excuse me, year-over-year. And so the middle of the country outgrew the coast by over 10% there as well. And there's many underlying actions that are causing kind of more of our sales to be concentrated in the middle of the country as we pursue more profitable sales. But even in the middle of the country, they're impacted by our choice to pursue more profitable sales and to forego less profitable sales.

因此，這是非常有意義的收穫。我認為我們也抽像地談論了我們所做的許多選擇，試圖追求更有利可圖的銷售並放棄整個公司利潤較低的銷售。這有多種不同的形式。但我認為，最容易理解和表達的方式就是看看這個國家的不同地區。因此，如果我們看一下美國中部地區，那裡我們有更多的檢測中心和更多距離客戶更近的汽車，我們的季度環比增長了 4%。如果我們看一下東西海岸，就會發現季度較上季下降幅度相當顯著。因此，該國中部地區——或者不好意思，是逐年增長。因此，該國中部地區的人口成長也比沿海地區高出 10% 以上。為了追求更有利可圖的銷售，許多潛在的舉措導致我們的銷售更集中在中部地區。但即使在美國中部地區，他們也會因我們選擇追求利潤較高的銷售並放棄利潤較低的銷售而受到影響。

And so when you look at all that, you kind of can start to -- you got to be careful when you're layering multiple effects and compounding them, but you can see that when we look at cash customers, there's a lot of growth there. And when we look at the middle of the country where we're making less dramatic moves to cut out less profitable sales, there's growth there. And you start to layer that on top of each other, and you can see that there really is underlying demand growth.

因此，當你看到所有這些時，你就可以開始——當你分層多重效應並複合它們時，你必須小心，但你可以看到，當我們看現金客戶時，那裡有很多增長。當我們看向中部地區時，我們發現，我們並沒有採取什麼大動作來削減利潤較低的銷售，但那裡卻實現了成長。當你開始將這些因素疊在一起時，你會發現確實有潛在的需求成長。

And so I think our view is if the industry can stabilize and if we can get to a spot where GPUs were -- they can kind of settle out and be a little more stable and a little more reliable as we get stability in interest rates, I think that gives us a chance to start to go express that underlying demand growth again. But for the time being, I think we have to prudently manage the business for profitability and cash flow, and we've faced a number of headwinds that have caused us to pull back.

因此，我認為我們的觀點是，如果行業能夠穩定下來，如果我們能夠達到 GPU 的水平 - 它們可以穩定下來，隨著利率的穩定而變得更加穩定和可靠，我認為這會給我們一個機會再次開始表達潛在的需求增長。但就目前而言，我認為我們必須謹慎地管理業務以實現盈利和現金流，我們已經面臨許多導致我們退縮的阻力。

So I think the underlying demand, we believe, is still there like it was before, but I think the pretty dramatic change in sort of strategic direction from a heavy focus on growth to a heavy focus on cost certainly is imposing a cost on volumes that you're seeing in our results.

因此，我認為，潛在的需求仍然像以前一樣存在，但我認為，從高度關注增長到高度關注成本的策略方向的巨大轉變肯定會對您在我們的結果中看到的產量造成成本。

Perfect. And just one follow-up, Ernie. So look, Carvana is unique in that it's still primarily a virtual model. As you look at this, the overall demand picture, what's happening in the sector from a demand. Do you think that Carvana and its still largely virtual model is incrementally hampered here versus maybe more traditional dealers or vice versa?

完美的。還有一個後續問題，厄尼。所以看起來，Carvana 的獨特之處在於它仍然主要是一個虛擬模型。正如您所看到的，整體需求情況，從需求角度來看，該行業正在發生什麼。您是否認為 Carvana 及其仍以虛擬為主的模式與更傳統的經銷商相比會受到一定程度的阻礙，反之亦然？

I think undoubtedly, the swing in strategy from grow as fast as you can to get profitable as fast as you can is a big change. And I think that has many impacts across every part of the company. And I think that, that change in strategy, all else constant, has probably made our work a little bit harder than 4 different retailers out there that weren't pursuing as aggressive of a growth strategy, and we're kind of already in more of a profit mindset. So I think that -- probably that has been the bigger driver of kind of differential pressure that we felt.

我認為毫無疑問，從盡快發展到盡快獲利的策略轉變是一個巨大的變化。我認為這對公司的各個部門都有很大的影響。我認為，在其他所有因素不變的情況下，策略的改變可能會讓我們的工作比其他四家沒有採取積極成長策略的零售商更艱難一些，而我們已經更處於獲利思維模式。所以我認為——這可能是我們感受到的差異壓力的更大驅動因素。

Now that said, I think if you look at the direction of our results, whether it's expenses or EBITDA or whatever else, I think the direction is good. We decreased our EBITDA loss in the quarter. I think given the headwinds that are seen everywhere else, a lot of other retailers are probably seeing their results get worse in the quarter, right? So I think directionally, we're making some pretty good steps or taking some pretty good steps. But I think probably that change, all else constant, has been hard, and I think that we're making it, and I think the team is doing a great job. And I would associate that more with the change in strategy than I would with the model.

話雖如此，我認為如果你看看我們的業績方向，無論是費用、EBITDA 還是其他什麼，我認為方向都是好的。我們本季減少了 EBITDA 損失。我認為，考慮到其他地方都存在的不利因素，許多其他零售商本季的業績可能會變得更糟，對嗎？因此我認為從方向上看，我們正在邁出一些相當不錯的步伐或正在採取一些相當不錯的步驟。但我認為，在其他一切不變的情況下，改變可能是困難的，我認為我們正在做到這一點，我認為團隊做得很好。我認為這與策略變化有關，而不是與模型變化有關。

I think the business model kind of is built and aimed at a certain volume, we believe has kind of lower variable costs and higher fixed costs in the traditional business. But even at this level of volume is positioned to earn a lot of EBITDA when you're in a place where you're kind of stable and you're not swinging from one strategy to another.

我認為這種商業模式是針對一定數量而建立的，我們認為傳統業務的變動成本較低，固定成本較高。但即使在這種交易量水平下，只要你的業務比較穩定，並且不會在各個策略之間搖擺不定，你仍然能夠賺取大量的 EBITDA。

Our next question will come from Chris Pierce with Needham & Company.

我們的下一個問題來自 Needham & Company 的 Chris Pierce。

Another end market question. I'm just kind of curious, we've been seeing wholesale prices come down pretty aggressively, but we're not seeing that at the retail level. So is it -- when this happens and when these spreads widen out, what do we need to see? Do you always need a clear existing inventory? Like are they not willing to do that because they don't want to take losses? Like I'm just trying to get a sense of when demand might actually come back and we need to see not just lower prices -- well, lower prices kind of what -- how would you think about demand coming back and when that could happen? Or what happens when these spreads widen out this much?

另一個終端市場問題。我只是有點好奇，我們看到批發價格大幅下降，但在零售層面我們並沒有看到這種情況。那麼，當這種情況發生並且利差擴大時，我們需要看到什麼？您是否總是需要清晰的現有庫存？他們是不是因為不想承擔損失而不願意這麼做？就像我只是想了解需求何時會真正回升，我們需要看到的不僅僅是更低的價格——嗯，更低的價格是什麼——您如何看待需求回升以及何時會發生？或者當這些利差擴大到如此程度時會發生什麼？

Yes, sure. I think -- I mean you largely described the dynamic that I think has been the average dynamic over time, which is, generally speaking, wholesale prices lead. And so whether it's up or down, they tend to lead. And it's because, for the most part, kind of a heavily simplified mental model is that dealers are not buying cars at wholesale and then they plan to make a certain amount of profit on that car, and they sell that car between 30 and 90 days later, and they're going to aim for kind of earning the profit that they're shooting for on that car in 30 to 90 days.

是的，當然。我認為——我的意思是，您在很大程度上描述了我認為一直是一段時間內的平均動態，即一般而言批發價格領先。因此，無論是上漲還是下跌，它們往往都處於領先地位。這是因為，在大多數情況下，一種高度簡化的思維模型是，經銷商不會以批發價購買汽車，然後他們計劃從該汽車中賺取一定數額的利潤，他們會在 30 到 90 天后賣出該汽車，他們的目標是在 30 到 90 天內賺取他們所期望的利潤。

And so when we saw prices appreciating over the last 2 years, we saw the wholesale market leading up the retail market. And if you looked in real time, you saw the wholesale retail spread massively collapsed. But then that was offset in dealers profit margins by the appreciation that we've seen or equivalently by the lag time with which they would kind of change their pricing to the market. And then as it's gone down, we're seeing more of the same.

因此，當我們看到過去兩年價格上漲時，我們看到批發市場領先於零售市場。如果你即時觀察，你會發現批發零售價差大幅下降。但是，我們看到的升值或他們根據市場調整定價的滯後時間抵消了經銷商的利潤率。然後隨著它的下降，我們看到了更多相同的情況。

And I think if you look over the last 2 years, there have been many, many changes of direction of depreciation. And every time there's been at least a directionally offsetting change in wholesale retail spreads. So I think that what we're seeing in the wholesale market is most likely to be used a preview of what we're going to see in the retail market over the next couple of months. That's at least been the way that it's historically played out, and that it's played out over the last couple of years.

我認為，如果你回顧過去兩年，你會發現貶值的方向發生了許多變化。且每次批發零售價差都會出現至少方向性的抵銷變化。因此，我認為我們在批發市場看到的情況很可能預示著未來幾個月零售市場的情況。至少從歷史上看，情況就是這樣的，而且過去幾年的情況也是如此。

So is it too simplistic to think that it would be better to push inventory and reset at these lower prices? I know that turns, et cetera, is 30 to 90 days like you spoke about. But it seems like instead of just waiting and waiting and having lower unit sales, I'm just kind of curious how dealers would think about those 2 situations. So (inaudible) hope to earn my standard GPU or just kind of move on from this aged inventory.

那麼，認為以較低的價格推動庫存並重新設定價格會更好的想法是否過於簡單了？我知道，就像您說的那樣，轉變等等需要 30 到 90 天。但看起來，除了等待和降低單位銷售之外，我只是有點好奇經銷商會如何看待這兩種情況。所以（聽不清楚）希望能獲得我的標準 GPU 或只是擺脫這個老舊的庫存。

So I think that, that framework is, I think, more of like a real-time earnings optimizing framework instead of like a total earnings over -- across time framework. And I think many dealers oftentimes think about optimizing kind of total cash. And if you were to take retail cars today and go and clear them in the wholesale market that is now leading the retail market down, you would take kind of pretty large losses that would be certain. You would be able to then replace that with lower cost inventory that you could put out on your lot and if your goal was to earn the same profit as before, then you probably could lower prices quickly and sell more cars, but you would just be kind of getting more earnings to offset your previous losses.

所以我認為，該框架更像是即時收益優化框架，而不是跨時間的總收益框架。我認為許多經銷商經常考慮優化總現金。如果你今天把零售車拿到批發市場清倉，而批發市場又導致零售市場下滑，那麼你一定會遭受相當大的損失。然後，您將能夠用可以放在您的地段上的低成本庫存來替換它，如果您的目標是賺取與以前相同的利潤，那麼您可能可以迅速降低價格並銷售更多的汽車，但您只會獲得更多的收益來抵消您以前的損失。

And so I think usually, what most retailers out there do and what we do is we try to kind of optimize for what we think is the value across cars and customers across time. And it's usually pretty expensive to take cars out of retail and go sell them wholesale kind of regardless of what the market is. There can be occasions where that can make sense. But generally speaking, as long as there's anything near healthy demand in your retail channel, you're usually better off selling those cars through retail when you kind of calculate some of the impacts across time.

因此，我認為通常情況下，大多數零售商所做的以及我們所做的就是嘗試優化我們認為的跨時間的汽車和客戶的價值。無論市場如何，將汽車從零售店取出並批發銷售通常都是相當昂貴的。在某些情況下，這是有道理的。但一般來說，只要您的零售通路中存在任何接近健康的需求，當您計算出一段時間內的一些影響時，您通常最好透過零售來銷售這些汽車。

Our next question will come from Naved Khan with Truist Securities.

我們的下一個問題來自 Truist Securities 的 Naved Khan。

This is Vincent for Naved. So regarding working capital, you've again lowered inventory closer to the $2 billion to $2.5 billion target range you mentioned previously. So just curious how much lower you expect that to go. And how is your progress in moving on a third-party conditioning impact to this (inaudible)

我是 Naved 的 Vincent。因此，關於營運資金，您再次將庫存降低至更接近您先前提到的 20 億美元至 25 億美元的目標範圍。所以我只是好奇你預計這個數字會下降多少。您在第三方調節方面的進展如何，這對此有何影響？ （聽不清楚）

Sure. Yes. So I think we took a nice step-down in inventory in Q3, second consecutive quarter of moving it down toward more normalized levels. We do expect inventory to decline again in Q4 to get sort of inside that range that we laid out previously. And so we do think that's -- that also makes sense in light of the current depreciation environment and in light of our goals of getting inventory to a more normalized level relative to retail unit sales. So yes, we do expect to do that in Q4 and feel good about the path that we're on there.

當然。是的。因此，我認為我們在第三季的庫存大幅下降，這是連續第二季將其降至更正常的水平。我們確實預計第四季度庫存將再次下降，達到我們先前設定的範圍。因此，我們確實認為，考慮到當前的折舊環境以及我們將庫存提高到相對於零售單位銷售額更加正常水平的目標，這也是有意義的。是的，我們確實希望在第四季度實現這一目標，並且對我們目前所取得的進展感到滿意。

Okay. Great. And then can you provide any color on kind of your ability to reach the base year-end SG&A unit goal given a reduction in retail volumes?

好的。偉大的。那麼，在零售量減少的情況下，您能否說明您是否有能力實現年底銷售、一般及行政開支單位基本目標？

Do you mind restating the question? I'm not sure we followed. I apologize.

您介意重述一下這個問題嗎？我不確定我們是否遵循了。我很抱歉。

Yes. No worries. Just wondering if you can provide color on like your base year-end SG&A per unit goal given reduction in volumes, retail volumes.

是的。不用擔心。只是想知道，考慮到銷售量和零售量的減少，您是否可以提供一些細節，例如基本年底每單位銷售、一般及行政費用目標。

Sure. Yes. So you're referencing the stretch goal for Q4?

當然。是的。所以您參考的是第四季的延伸目標嗎？

Yes.

是的。

Sure. Yes. I think our goal is to continue to push down expenses as quickly as we possibly can. We try to give a framework for how quickly we think we can push those down. We were able to lower them kind of without accounting for the RIF. Last quarter, we were able to load them by about 12%. As we said, I think it obviously gets harder to lower expenses as your expense base drops, but we think there's still a lot of little hanging fruit and so we're going to try to continue to lower that.

當然。是的。我認為我們的目標是繼續盡可能快速地降低開支。我們嘗試給出一個框架，以表明我們認為可以多快地降低這些影響。我們能夠在不考慮 RIF 的情況下降低它們。上個季度，我們的負載量增加了約 12%。正如我們所說，我認為隨著支出基數的下降，降低支出顯然會變得更加困難，但我們認為仍有許多未實現的目標，因此我們將努力繼續降低這些目標。

And then I think right now, inside of reasonable ranges, expenses and units are much more loosely tied together than they normally would be. And so I think those things are probably moving more independently than normal, and we'll just be seeking to push down expenses as quickly as we possibly can to try to get to breakeven EBITDA and then ultimately the positive cash flow, ASAP.

然後我認為現在，在合理範圍內，費用和單位之間的聯繫比通常情況下要鬆散得多。因此，我認為這些事情可能比正常情況下更獨立地發展，我們只是尋求盡快降低開支，以盡快實現收支平衡，並最終實現正現金流。

Our next question will come from Nat Schindler with Bank of America.

我們的下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Nat Schindler。

Yes. There's -- going back to an earlier comment about equity financing. Well, let's not talk about equity financing specifically and go over that again, but more how do you fix the debt financing that you have? What are your options right now? Because even getting the positive cash flow, even getting to your long-term targets -- sorry, not positive EBITDA, even getting to your long-term EBITDA target, you would have to sell a whole lot of cars just to cover your current interest expense. What can you do to fix that debt load?

是的。回到之前關於股權融資的評論。好吧，我們不要具體談論股權融資並再次討論這個問題，而是更多地討論如何解決現有的債務融資問題？您現在有哪些選擇？因為即使獲得正現金流，即使達到你的長期目標 - 抱歉，不是正 EBITDA，即使達到你的長期 EBITDA 目標，你也必須賣掉一大堆汽車才能支付你當前的利息費用。您能做什麼來解決債務負擔？

Sure. Let me start with this. I mean I think if we hit our long-term EBITDA targets even at today's units, we'd be in a great spot from a cash flow perspective. I think and would be able to comfortably cover our interest expense. So I think that I want to make sure that, that's at least clear. And I think that you look across time at other retailers that have been at similar scales to where we are today, who have been able to achieve sufficient kind of positive EBITDA to cover what our interest expense is today, so I think our goal is as stated, and I apologize for going through it over and over again, but I think in this environment, we've got to really focus on what's in our direct control. And the thing that is most directly in our control is expenses. And so we're going to keep marching that down as quickly as we possibly can. And then we're going to pay a lot of attention to how we originate the most profitable sales that we can to try to accelerate our path to breakeven EBITDA and beyond. And so that's the plan right there. That's just what we're going to be working on.

當然。讓我從這個開始。我的意思是，我認為，即使按照今天的單位，如果我們達到長期 EBITDA 目標，從現金流的角度來看，我們也會處於一個很好的位置。我認為我們能夠輕鬆支付利息費用。所以我想我要確保這一點至少是清楚的。我認為，回顧過去，看看其他與我們規模相似的零售商，他們都能夠實現足夠的正 EBITDA 來覆蓋我們今天的利息支出，所以我認為我們的目標正如所述，我很抱歉一遍又一遍地重複這一點，但我認為在這種環境下，我們必須真正關注我們能夠直接控制的事情。我們最能直接控制的就是開支。因此，我們將盡可能快地推進這一進程。然後，我們將重點放在如何創造最賺錢的銷售，以嘗試加速實現收支平衡 EBITDA 及更高目標。這就是計劃。這正是我們要努力的方向。

So wait, even at 400,000 annual units or, let's say, 100,000 in a quarter where you are right now, you had $150 million in interest income. At 13.5% EBITDA, you wouldn't cover that.

那麼等一下，即使每年有 400,000 個單位，或者說，現在一個季度有 100,000 個單位，您也有 1.5 億美元的利息收入。 EBITDA 為 13.5%，您無法彌補這一損失。

I think you've -- just make sure you're multiplying by the kind of retail price, and I think you'll probably get there.

我認為你只要確保將其乘以零售價，你就可能得到結果。

Okay. You'll barely get there. Yes. Sorry. But...

好的。你幾乎無法到達那裡。是的。對不起。但...

Yes, I think we'd get there with a little bit of cushion. But yes, but either way.

是的，我認為我們會取得一些進展。但無論如何，是的。

Okay. So is there anything that you have on the near term on the horizon that you can think of to do to finance that debt any other way, though, other than just driving that EBITDA?

好的。那麼，除了提高 EBITDA 之外，您近期還能想到其他什麼方法來償還債務嗎？

I think -- as we stated earlier, I think the #1 input to all this is expenses that drives into EBITDA. From there, we've got, to kind of use round numbers, about $4 billion of kind of total access to liquidity. Approximately half of that is immediately available. The other half is broken down to be about $1 billion of ADESA real estate and about $1 billion of other real estate. Between all that, that gives us a lot of access to liquidity. And so I think that's primarily how we're thinking about it at the moment, and we'll continue to march forward with our plan.

我認為——正如我們之前所說，我認為所有這一切的首要投入是影響 EBITDA 的費用。從那時起，我們獲得了大約 40 億美元的流動性資金（以整數表示）。其中約一半可立即使用。另一半包括約 10 億美元的 ADESA 房地產和約 10 億美元的其他房地產。所有這些，都為我們提供了大量的流動性管道。所以我認為這主要是我們目前的想法，我們將繼續推進我們的計劃。

Our final question will come from Michael Montani with Evercore.

我們的最後一個問題來自 Evercore 的 Michael Montani。

Just wanted to ask, first off, if I could. You had mentioned trying to pull back in certain markets to emphasize more profitable sales. But I also wanted to ask about some of the initiatives that you all have going on. I'm thinking of, for example, third-party listings. I had seen that you may be pulling back or pausing on that. So I just wanted to understand where that sits, the Hertz partnership. And then I had a separate follow-up.

首先，我只是想問一下是否可以。您曾提到嘗試撤出某些市場以強調更有利可圖的銷售。但我也想詢問一下你們正在進行的一些舉措。例如，我正在考慮第三方清單。我已經看到你可能正在撤回或暫停此事。所以我只是想了解赫茲合作關係的現況。然後我進行了單獨的跟進。

Sure. So I mean what I would say is I think when we think about -- I'm going to ask this generally and maybe not precisely related to some of the things that you brought for your question, but hopefully, it's useful. When we think about trying to aim for more profitable sales, what does that mean? There's certainly variability in the kind of gross profit associated with different types of sales. Obviously, sales where customers finance with us are more profitable than those where they don't. And those where they choose to buy a warranty are more profitable than those where they don't.

當然。所以我的意思是，我想說的是，當我們思考時——我會泛泛地問這個問題，也許與你提出的一些問題並不完全相關，但希望它是有用的。當我們考慮努力實現更有利可圖的銷售時，這意味著什麼？不同類型的銷售所產生的毛利肯定有差異。顯然，與我們融資的客戶銷售比不與我們融資的客戶銷售利潤更高。選擇購買保固的客戶比不購買保固的客戶利潤更高。

And then I think there's a number of other dynamics kind of across car type, et cetera. There's also kind of variation in the underlying costs of completing a sale. If it's a car that's nearby to an inspection center, it can be much, much lower. If it's a car that's maybe further away but where we're charging a shipping fee, it can be higher, but it can be offset by the benefit of that shipping fee. And so I think there can be variation in underlying cost of sales.

然後我認為不同類型的汽車還​​存在許多其他動態。完成銷售的潛在成本也存在一定差異。如果是距離檢查中心較近的汽車，費用可能會低得多。如果汽車距離較遠，但我們收取運費，運費可能會更高，但可以透過運費的收益來抵銷。因此我認為基本銷售成本可能會有所不同。

And then there can also be a variation in the cost to acquire different types of sales, whether it's sales different types of customers or different types of cars. That can vary. And some of those different channels can also attract customers with kind of variable levels of either gross profit or expected expense. And so I think across all those different areas, we're trying to just be very thoughtful right now and make sure that we're pulling levers that we think will drive the most profitable sales and drive the fewest less profitable sales. And I think that, that's taking many different forms.

而且，獲得不同類型銷售的成本也會有所不同，無論是銷售不同類型的客戶還是不同類型的汽車。這可能會有所不同。而且，這些不同的管道也可以透過不同程度的毛利或預期費用來吸引客戶。因此，我認為在所有這些不同領域，我們現在都試圖非常深思熟慮，並確保我們正在採取我們認為能夠推動最有利可圖的銷售和推動最少的低利潤銷售的槓桿。我認為，這有多種不同的形式。

And then you brought up Hertz. I would say that partnership continues to go very well. We're putting even more focus and attention on that right now as we think it's a big opportunity and there's alignment between the 2 groups. We're excited about the results there, for sure. I think that it's led to some other opportunities between us, especially as we've added ADESA to kind of -- to augment the overall capabilities that we have. So I think that continues to go really well. And I think you said you had a follow-up.

然後你提到了赫茲。我想說的是，雙方的合作關係持續進展順利。我們現在對此更加關注，因為我們認為這是一個巨大的機遇，而且這兩個群體之間是一致的。我們當然對那裡的結果感到興奮。我認為這為我們之間帶來了一些其他機會，特別是我們增加了 ADESA 來增強我們的整體能力。所以我認為情況會繼續順利發展。我認為您說過您有後續行動。

Yes. So the follow-up is just around CapEx. And I think in May, you all had outlined some different scenarios and what you felt was baseline kind of CapEx spend. But just wondering, volumes remain kind of challenged in terms of where we're at right now. Do you have further flexibility there? Can you just give us some sensitivity on kind of the CapEx outlay pace?

是的。因此後續工作僅圍繞資本支出。我認為在五月份，你們都已經概述了一些不同的情景，以及你們認為的基準資本支出。但只是想知道，就我們目前所處的位置而言，數量仍然面臨挑戰。您在那裡還有進一步的彈性嗎？您能否向我們介紹一下資本支出速度的敏感度？

Sure. Yes. And everything I'm about to say is also in the shareholder letter for future reference. But in May, we laid out a 2023 full year CapEx budget in the range of $100 million to $200 million, depending on the amount of elective capital expenditures we decide to undertake. I think from where we sit today, we expect to be in the lower half of that range.

當然。是的。我要說的所有內容也都包含在股東信中，以便將來參考。但在 5 月份，我們制定了 2023 年全年資本支出預算，範圍在 1 億美元至 2 億美元之間，具體取決於我們決定承擔的可選資本支出金額。我認為從我們今天所處的位置來看，我們預計會處於該範圍的下半部分。

This concludes our question-and-answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to management for any closing remarks.

我們的問答環節到此結束。我想將會議交還給管理階層，請他們發表結束語。

All right. Well, thanks, everyone, for joining the call. And to everyone inside Carvana, thank you guys again for all the work that you're putting in. I do think that we are getting more done than we ever have. I know it's against a tough backdrop. I think you've heard it over and over again, but I hope we're all prepared for the environment to continue to be tough. And I think we still have a lot of work left to do, but I do think we're all doing a great job, and we could not thank you guys more for it. So thanks for everything you guys do. And thanks again to everyone on the call. We'll talk to you soon.

好的。好吧，謝謝大家參加電話會議。對於 Carvana 內部的每一個人，再次感謝你們所做的一切工作。我確實認為我們完成的工作比以往任何時候都要多。我知道這是一個艱難的背景。我想你已經聽過很多遍了，但我希望我們都做好了繼續面對艱難環境的準備。我認為我們還有很多工作要做，但我確實認為我們都做得很好，我們對此非常感謝你們。感謝你們所做的一切。再次感謝電話中的每個人。我們很快會和你聯絡。

The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.

會議現已結束。感謝您參加今天的演講。您現在可以斷開連線。