Carvana Co (CVNA) 2022 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good day, and welcome to the Carvana Third Quarter 2022 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) Please note, this event is being recorded.

美好的一天，歡迎參加 Carvana 2022 年第三季度收益電話會議。 （操作員說明）請注意，此事件正在記錄中。

I would now like to turn the conference over to Mike Levin, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

我現在想將會議轉交給投資者關係副總裁 Mike Levin。請繼續。

Thank you, Matt. Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen, and thank you for joining us on Carvana's Third Quarter 2022 Earnings Conference Call. Please note that this call will be simultaneously webcast on the Investor Relations section of the company's corporate website at investors.carvana.com. The third quarter shareholder letter is also posted on the IR website. Additionally, we posted a set of supplemental financial tables for Q3 to assist investors in understanding the moving pieces with our first full quarter with the consolidation of ADESA which can be found on the Events and Presentations page of our IR website. Please note that with the full consolidation of ADESA now complete, we do not intend to provide these supplementary tables going forward.

謝謝你，馬特。下午好，女士們，先生們，感謝您參加 Carvana 的 2022 年第三季度收益電話會議。請注意，本次電話會議將同時在公司網站investors.carvana.com 的投資者關係部分進行網絡直播。第三季度股東信也發佈在 IR 網站上。此外，我們發布了第三季度的一組補充財務表格，以幫助投資者了解我們第一個完整季度與 ADESA 合併的動態，這些可以在我們的 IR 網站的活動和演示頁面上找到。請注意，隨著 ADESA 的全面整合現已完成，我們不打算在未來提供這些補充表格。

Joining me on the call today are Ernie Garcia, Chief Executive Officer; and Mark Jenkins, Chief Financial Officer.

今天和我一起參加電話會議的是首席執行官 Ernie Garcia；和首席財務官馬克詹金斯。

Before we start, I would like to remind you that the following discussion contains forward-looking statements within the meaning of the federal securities laws, including, but not limited to, Carvana's market opportunities and future financial results that involve risks and uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially from those discussed here. A detailed discussion of the material factors that cause actual results to differ from forward-looking statements can be found in the Risk Factors section of Carvana's most recent Form 10-K and our quarterly report on Form 10-Q for the first quarter of 2022. The forward-looking statements and risks in this conference call are based on current expectations as of today, and Carvana assumes no obligation to update or revise them whether as a result of new developments or otherwise. Unless otherwise noted on today's call, all comparisons are on a year-over-year basis.

在開始之前，我想提醒您，以下討論包含聯邦證券法含義內的前瞻性陳述，包括但不限於 Carvana 的市場機會和未來財務業績，其中涉及可能導致的風險和不確定性實際結果與此處討論的結果大不相同。有關導致實際結果與前瞻性陳述不同的重大因素的詳細討論，請參見 Carvana 最新的 10-K 表格的風險因素部分和我們 2022 年第一季度的 10-Q 表格季度報告。本次電話會議中的前瞻性陳述和風險基於截至今天的當前預期，Carvana 不承擔因新發展或其他原因而更新或修改它們的義務。除非在今天的電話會議中另有說明，否則所有比較都是按年進行的。

Our commentary today will include non-GAAP financial measures. Reconciliations between GAAP and non-GAAP metrics for our reported results can be found our shareholder letter issued today, a copy of which can be found on our Investor Relations website.

我們今天的評論將包括非公認會計準則財務措施。我們報告結果的 GAAP 和非 GAAP 指標之間的調節可以在我們今天發布的股東信中找到，其副本可以在我們的投資者關係網站上找到。

And now with that said, I'd like to turn the call over to Ernie Garcia. Ernie?

話雖如此，我想把電話轉給 Ernie Garcia。厄尼？

Thanks, Mike, and thanks, everyone, for joining the call. The third quarter was a quarter of strong operational progress against a difficult industry and economic backdrop. We're on track with our goals from an expense and operational efficiency standpoint, but industry demand, interest rate and depreciation headwinds are slowing our progress on overall profitability. We made gains here, but they were slower than we would have liked. And these headwinds are likely to persist over the near term, making precise forecasting of that progress more difficult.

謝謝邁克，也謝謝大家加入電話會議。第三季度是在艱難的行業和經濟背景下取得強勁運營進展的季度。從費用和運營效率的角度來看，我們正在實現我們的目標，但行業需求、利率和折舊逆風正在減緩我們在整體盈利能力方面的進展。我們在這裡取得了進展，但它們比我們希望的要慢。這些不利因素可能會在短期內持續存在，從而使準確預測這一進展變得更加困難。

To organize these remarks, I plan to provide our thoughts on 5 important questions. One, what is driving our expense and operational gains? Two, what are the key headwinds we face and how do changes in those dynamics impact us? Three, how do we believe we are doing relative to the industry? Four, what does all this mean for the near term? And five, what does it all mean for the long term?

為了組織這些評論，我計劃就 5 個重要問題提供我們的想法。一，是什麼推動了我們的開支和運營收益？第二，我們面臨的主要逆風是什麼？這些動態的變化對我們有何影響？三、我們如何相信我們相對於行業所做的事情？四，這一切對近期意味著什麼？五，從長遠來看，這一切意味著什麼？

First, what is driving our expense and operational gains? In the letter, we provided a number of data points, including that we reduced expenses by about $90 million in the quarter, $360 million on an annualized basis as well as many underlying operational metrics that are making those expense reductions possible. We're extremely proud of this progress. It is the result of an intense focus on efficiency throughout the company in the way that we manage the business, the way that we organize and set our priorities and the way that we execute day to day. As we have faced the changes in the economy, our industry and in markets over the last several quarters, the people of Carvana have come together and are doing great work. We have a lot of work left to do, but we know it, and we know how we're going to go about doing it. Thanks to everyone inside the company for all the hard work you're putting in. We still have a long way to go and there will probably be additional unexpected difficulties between here and the end of all this. We've got to keep our heads down and keep marching.

首先，是什麼推動了我們的開支和運營收益？在信中，我們提供了許多數據點，包括我們在本季度減少了約 9000 萬美元的費用，按年計算減少了 3.6 億美元，以及許多使這些費用減少成為可能的基本運營指標。我們為這一進展感到非常自豪。這是我們在管理業務的方式、組織和確定優先事項的方式以及我們日常執行的方式中高度關注整個公司的效率的結果。在過去幾個季度中，隨著我們面臨經濟、行業和市場的變化，Carvana 的人們齊心協力，做著出色的工作。我們還有很多工作要做，但我們知道，我們知道我們將如何去做。感謝公司內部的每一個人，你們的辛勤工作。我們還有很長的路要走，從這裡到這一切結束，可能還會有更多意想不到的困難。我們必須低著頭繼續前進。

Next, what are the key headwinds we face and how do changes in those dynamics impact us? There are 3 key headwinds that we are facing right now: industry-level demand, interest rate increases and vehicle price depreciation. Let's take these one at a time. First, industry-level demand. There are many data sources available to assess industry-level demand, but regardless of the source, demand is slow. Industry data sources estimate used sales down approximately 10% to 15% year-over-year in the third quarter, and many of the forward-looking indicators that we use internally, including web searches and activity on carvana.com, indicate further slowing recently. Cars are an expensive discretionary often finance purchase that inflated much more than other goods in the economy over the last couple of years and is clearly having an impact on people's purchasing decisions.

接下來，我們面臨的主要逆風是什麼？這些動態的變化對我們有何影響？我們目前面臨三個主要逆風：行業層面的需求、利率上升和汽車價格貶值。讓我們一次拿這些。一是行業層面的需求。有許多數據源可用於評估行業層面的需求，但無論來源如何，需求都是緩慢的。行業數據來源估計，第三季度二手銷售額同比下降約 10% 至 15%，我們內部使用的許多前瞻性指標，包括網絡搜索和 carvana.com 上的活動，表明最近進一步放緩.汽車是一種昂貴的非必需品，通常為購買提供資金，在過去幾年裡，它比經濟中的其他商品膨脹得多，顯然對人們的購買決定產生了影響。

The good news is that historically, used cars have been a relatively resilient category and the depressed level of sales that we see today are similar to periods of fairly severe economic difficulty in the past, potentially suggesting that there is less medium-term downside than there may be for other categories. This possibility is also supported by higher depreciation rates that should, over time, make cars more affordable again and a forward interest rate curve that suggests that the majority of the interest rate increases are behind us. Regardless, we are building our plans around assumptions that the next year is a difficult one in our industry and in the economy as a whole.

好消息是，從歷史上看，二手車一直是一個相對有彈性的類別，我們今天看到的銷售低迷水平與過去相當嚴重的經濟困難時期相似，這可能表明中期下行空間小於現在可能適用於其他類別。這種可能性也得到了較高的折舊率的支持，隨著時間的推移，汽車應該會再次變得更實惠，而遠期利率曲線表明大部分利率上漲已經過去。無論如何，我們正在製定我們的計劃，假設明年對我們的行業和整個經濟來說都是艱難的一年。

Next, interest rate increases. Interest rates have risen rapidly with a 2-year treasury, a good benchmark for automotive loans rising 3.9% over the last year and 2.6% since 2019. In addition, credit spreads have risen about 1% in the last year. To put this in perspective, for a customer utilizing financing, the moves in 2-year through yields plus credit spreads of last year are equivalent in their impact to the customer's monthly payment of about a $3,000 price increase.

其次，利率上升。利率迅速上升，2 年期國債是汽車貸款的良好基準，比去年上升 3.9%，自 2019 年以來上升 2.6%。此外，信貸利差在去年上升了約 1%。從這個角度來看，對於使用融資的客戶，2 年期通過收益率加上去年的信用利差的變動對客戶每月支付約 3,000 美元價格上漲的影響是相等的。

As a result, for customers using financing, cars ended the quarter at their most unaffordable point ever despite the fact that retail prices have dropped roughly 10% this year. As benchmark interest rates, risk spreads and market expectations for future credit performance evolve over time, we do expect those changes to impact our other GPU and sales volumes before the market fully adjusts, which is built into our expectation that other GPU will move down in the fourth quarter relative to the third.

結果，對於使用融資的客戶來說，儘管今年零售價格下降了大約 10%，但汽車在本季度末仍處於有史以來最難以承受的水平。隨著基準利率、風險利差和市場對未來信貸表現的預期隨著時間的推移而變化，我們確實預計這些變化會在市場完全調整之前影響我們的其他 GPU 和銷量，這是我們預期其他 GPU 將在第四季度相對於第三季度。

Lastly, vehicle depreciation. Over the medium term, we believe vehicle depreciation is good as it is necessary to bring cars back into alignment with other goods in terms of cost and affordability and therefore is healthy for volume. In the near term, it is less clear. Two key dynamics that have a big impact on retail GPU is the average spread between acquisition prices and retail prices and the rate of daily depreciation. Historically, on average, the wholesale retail spread roughly captures the depreciation dealers expect to see prior to selling a car, which creates stability in industry retail margins that can be seen over time.

最後，車輛折舊。從中期來看，我們認為汽車折舊是好的，因為有必要讓汽車在成本和可負擔性方面與其他商品保持一致，因此對銷量有利。在短期內，還不太清楚。對零售 GPU 產生重大影響的兩個關鍵因素是收購價格與零售價格之間的平均價差以及每日折舊率。從歷史上看，平均而言，批發零售價差大致反映了經銷商在銷售汽車之前預計會看到的折舊率，這使得行業零售利潤率隨著時間的推移而保持穩定。

We have seen this in action recently as depreciation rates have increased over the last 2 quarters. And in both quarters, we saw acquisition spreads widen in a way that was approximately offsetting. Looking forward, we expect this to continue to be the case on average, but we don't know exactly what will play out quarter-to-quarter. We have recently seen wholesale retail spreads widen further and have also seen daily depreciation rates move up meaningfully. Given these moves, our expectation for the fourth quarter is that retail GPU will decrease relative to the third quarter. Over time, we expect this to normalize as it historically has, but the recent volatility is making it tougher call than it usually is.

我們最近看到了這一點，因為過去兩個季度的折舊率有所增加。在這兩個季度，我們都看到收購價差以一種近似抵消的方式擴大。展望未來，我們預計平均情況將繼續如此，但我們不知道每個季度會發生什麼。我們最近看到批發零售價差進一步擴大，而且每日折舊率也顯著上升。鑑於這些舉措，我們對第四季度的預期是零售 GPU 將相對於第三季度有所下降。隨著時間的推移，我們預計這會像以往一樣正常化，但最近的波動使得它比通常情況下更加艱難。

Moving on to how do we believe we are doing relative to the industry? This is a much more difficult question to answer simply with our results than it normally is given the dynamics discussed above as well as the volume impacts of our focus on profitability. We discussed much of this in the shareholder letter in a way that we hope to provide some clarity and understanding but to summarize our beliefs (inaudible) this.

繼續討論我們如何相信我們相對於行業所做的事情？考慮到上面討論的動態以及我們對盈利能力的關注對數量的影響，簡單地用我們的結果來回答這個問題要比通常情況下要困難得多。我們在股東信中討論了大部分內容，我們希望提供一些清晰和理解，但總結我們的信念（聽不清）。

For realized sales volumes year-over-year, we are clearly taking market share relative to the industry. Quarter-over-quarter, we are most likely not taking realized sales market share relative to the industry as a whole, but it depends on which data sources we compare to. If we use our best understandings of the differential impacts to conversion for our customers versus the average customer in the industry due to the choices we are making in setting interest rates as well as the impacts driven by our focus on profitability, it is likely we are seeing somewhat meaningful gains in top funnel demand market share. We expect this to begin to show up in realized sales when the interest rate and general industry environment approaches more stability and when we stop further decreasing conversion through our profitability initiatives.

對於同比實現的銷售量，我們顯然正在佔據相對於該行業的市場份額。與季度相比，我們很可能不會獲得相對於整個行業的已實現銷售市場份額，但這取決於我們比較的數據源。如果我們充分了解由於我們在設定利率方面所做的選擇以及我們對盈利能力的關注所帶來的影響，我們對客戶與行業普通客戶的轉換影響不同，那麼我們很可能是看到頂部漏斗需求市場份額的一些有意義的增長。我們預計，當利率和總體行業環境趨於穩定，並且當我們停止通過盈利計劃進一步降低轉化率時，這將開始體現在已實現的銷售額中。

Now heading to what does this mean in the near term? In the near term, our goal is clear, to march toward profitability as quickly as we can regardless of industry-level sales volumes. To achieve this, we plan to continue to rapidly reduce expenses to continue to put our focus on efficiency gains throughout every area of the company and to continue to evaluate and test what levers we should pull to maximize the number of our more profitable sales and to minimize the number of less profitable sales.

現在，這在短期內意味著什麼？在短期內，我們的目標很明確，即無論行業水平的銷量如何，都要盡快實現盈利。為實現這一目標，我們計劃繼續快速減少開支，繼續將重點放在公司各個領域的效率提升上，並繼續評估和測試我們應該拉動哪些槓桿來最大化我們更有利可圖的銷售數量，並盡量減少利潤較低的銷售數量。

Lastly, I want to hit the question of what does this mean for the long term. This is an easy question to skip in a difficult environment, but in the end, is the most important question. Our belief is this: If we manage through the current environment as we intend to, the long term will be even brighter. All the things that define our opportunity when we started Carvana and were true a year ago when the environment felt very different are still true today. Nothing focuses us like difficulty and the last several quarters have undoubtedly been difficult. The next couple maybe as well. While it's never fun while we're in the middle of a difficult time, if we use the clarity and focus it provides, we'll be better on the side of it. This is our intention. The march continues. Mark.

最後，我想提出一個問題，即從長遠來看這意味著什麼。在困難的環境中，這是一個容易跳過的問題，但歸根結底，這是最重要的問題。我們的信念是：如果我們按照我們的意願管理當前的環境，長期將會更加光明。當我們開始 Carvana 時，所有定義我們機會的事情，並且在一年前當環境感覺非常不同時是真實的，今天仍然是真實的。沒有什麼比困難更讓我們關注的了，過去幾個季度無疑是困難的。下一對可能也是。雖然在我們處於困難時期時它永遠不會有趣，但如果我們利用它提供的清晰和專注，我們會在它方面做得更好。這是我們的意圖。遊行繼續。標記。

Thank you, Ernie, and thank you all for joining us today. We made significant progress in Q3, executing our plan of reducing SG&A expenses and progressing toward profitability, despite significant volume headwinds driven by a variety of external and internal factors.

謝謝你，厄尼，感謝大家今天加入我們。儘管受到各種外部和內部因素的推動，我們在第三季度取得了重大進展，執行了減少 SG&A 費用並邁向盈利的計劃。

In Q3, retail units sold totaled 102,570, a decrease of 8%. We gained market share versus the comparable period in 2021 despite the impact of high used vehicle prices, rising interest rates and several initiatives focused on improving near-term profitability.

第三季度，零售單位共售出 102,570 個，下降 8%。儘管受到高二手車價格、利率上升和幾項旨在提高近期盈利能力的舉措的影響，但與 2021 年同期相比，我們的市場份額有所增加。

Total revenue was $3.386 billion in Q3, a decrease of 3%. Total revenue included $193 million from ADESA, which was included in our results for the full quarter in Q3.

第三季度總收入為 33.86 億美元，下降 3%。總收入包括來自 ADESA 的 1.93 億美元，這包括在我們第三季度整個季度的業績中。

Total gross profit per unit was $3,500 in Q3, a decrease of $1,172 year-over-year and an increase of $132 sequentially. Due to the dynamic nature of the current environment, we will focus our more detailed commentary on sequential changes.

第三季度每單位總毛利為 3,500 美元，同比減少 1,172 美元，環比增加 132 美元。由於當前環境的動態特性，我們將把更詳細的評論集中在順序變化上。

Following the acquisition of ADESA, we are reporting total GPU, retail GPU and wholesale GPU, both including and excluding depreciation and amortization expense, or D&A, and share-based compensation expense associated with Ernie's 1 million unit milestone Gift or Gift SBC. Historically, Carvana has reported GPU, including D&A, while ADESA has reported gross profit excluding D&A. For the purpose of clarity, we are now providing both.

收購 ADESA 後，我們報告了 GPU、零售 GPU 和批發 GPU 的總和，包括和不包括折舊和攤銷費用，或 D&A，以及與 Ernie 的 100 萬單位里程碑禮物或禮物 SBC 相關的基於股份的補償費用。從歷史上看，Carvana 報告了 GPU，包括 D&A，而 ADESA 報告了不包括 D&A 的毛利潤。為了清楚起見，我們現在提供兩者。

Total gross profit per unit, excluding D&A and Gift SBC, was $3,870 in Q3, an increase of $221 sequentially. Retail GPU was $1,131 in Q3, flat compared to $1,131 in Q2. Retail GPU, excluding D&A and Gift SBC was $1,267 in Q3 compared to $1,276 in Q2. Sequential changes in retail GPU were primarily driven by higher spreads between retail prices and acquisition prices and lower retail cost of sales, offset by higher retail depreciation rates in Q3 compared to Q2.

第三季度，不包括 D&A 和 Gift SBC 的每單位總毛利潤為 3,870 美元，比上一季度增加了 221 美元。第三季度零售 GPU 為 1,131 美元，與第二季度的 1,131 美元持平。第三季度零售 GPU（不包括 D&A 和禮品 SBC）為 1,267 美元，而第二季度為 1,276 美元。零售 GPU 的連續變化主要是由於零售價格和收購價格之間的價差擴大以及零售銷售成本降低，但與第二季度相比，第三季度的零售折舊率更高，這抵消了這一影響。

Wholesale GPU was $448 in Q3 compared to $383 in Q2, a sequential increase of $65. Wholesale GPU excluding D&A, was $682 in Q3 compared to $519 in Q2. Sequential changes in wholesale GPU were primarily driven by consolidating a full quarter of ADESA in Q3.

第三季度 GPU 批發價為 448 美元，而第二季度為 383 美元，環比增長 65 美元。不包括 D&A 的 GPU 批發價格在第三季度為 682 美元，而第二季度為 519 美元。批發 GPU 的連續變化主要是由於在第三季度整合了整個季度的 ADESA。

Other GPU was $1,921 in Q3 compared to $1,854 in Q2. Sequential changes in other GPU were primarily driven by higher origination rates relative to benchmark interest rates and improved securitization credit spreads relative to Q2, partially offset by lower ancillary product attachment rates.

第三季度其他 GPU 為 1,921 美元，而第二季度為 1,854 美元。其他 GPU 的連續變化主要是由於相對於基準利率較高的發起利率和相對於第二季度改善的證券化信用利差，部分被較低的輔助產品附加率所抵消。

Looking toward Q4, we expect to maintain flexibility to optimize our loan sales channel mix as the quarter progresses.

展望第四季度，隨著季度的進展，我們預計將保持靈活性以優化我們的貸款銷售渠道組合。

We made significant progress reducing SG&A expenses in Q3. Carvana-only SG&A expense, excluding impacts from ADESA, declined by $89 million compared to Q2. These SG&A expense reductions were broad-based, including in payroll, advertising, logistics and other SG&A expense. We expect to make continued progress on reducing SG&A expense in the coming quarters as we continue to execute our plan across all areas of the business.

我們在第三季度在減少 SG&A 費用方面取得了重大進展。與第二季度相比，僅 Carvana 的 SG&A 費用（不包括 ADESA 的影響）下降了 8900 萬美元。這些 SG&A 費用減少是廣泛的，包括工資、廣告、物流和其他 SG&A 費用。隨著我們繼續在所有業務領域執行我們的計劃，我們預計在未來幾個季度將在減少 SG&A 費用方面取得持續進展。

Our progress in the quarter led to an adjusted EBITDA improvement of $39 million in Q3 compared to Q2 despite lower retail units sold. Adjusted EBITDA margin was minus 5.9% in Q3 compared to minus 6.2% in Q2, an improvement of 0.3%. Adjusted EBITDA excludes impacts from earnings gift of personal stock to Carvana employees as well as other income and expense, which primarily includes changes in the fair value of securities, but it includes nongift share-based compensation.

儘管零售單位銷量下降，但我們在本季度的進展導致第三季度調整後的 EBITDA 與第二季度相比增加了 3900 萬美元。第三季度調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率為負 5.9%，而第二季度為負 6.2%，提高了 0.3%。調整後的 EBITDA 不包括向 Carvana 員工贈送個人股票的收益以及其他收入和費用的影響，這主要包括證券公允價值的變化，但它包括基於非禮物股票的薪酬。

In May 2022, we outlined a stretch goal for Q4 2022 of $4,000 SG&A expense per retail unit sold, excluding D&A, SBC and ADESA expenses. This equated to a stretch goal of $4,350 to $4,450, including ADESA expenses. We are making strong progress reducing SG&A expenses on an absolute dollar basis. But due to the current volume environment, we do not expect to reach this stretch goal on a per unit basis in Q4.

2022 年 5 月，我們概述了 2022 年第四季度的延伸目標，即每售出零售單位 4,000 美元的 SG&A 費用，不包括 D&A、SBC 和 ADESA 費用。這相當於 4,350 美元至 4,450 美元的延伸目標，包括 ADESA 費用。我們在以絕對美元為基礎減少 SG&A 費用方面取得了顯著進展。但由於目前的銷量環境，我們預計第四季度的單位產量不會達到這一延伸目標。

Our goal is to manage the business to achieve greater than $4,000 total GPU and significant adjusted EBITDA profitability at current volume levels, while also building in flexibility to achieve profitability at higher or lower volume levels through our efficiency and cost savings initiatives.

我們的目標是管理業務以在當前數量水平上實現超過 4,000 美元的總 GPU 和顯著調整後的 EBITDA 盈利能力，同時通過我們的效率和成本節約計劃建立靈活性以實現更高或更低數量水平的盈利能力。

On September 30, we had approximately $4.4 billion in total liquidity resources, including $2.3 billion in cash and revolving availability and $2.1 billion in unpledged real estate and other assets, including approximately $1 billion of real estate acquired from ADESA. We also ended the quarter with approximately 1.2 million units of inspection and reconditioning center capacity at full utilization, giving us substantial infrastructure for future profitable growth.

9 月 30 日，我們擁有約 44 億美元的總流動資金資源，包括 23 億美元的現金和循環可用性以及 21 億美元的未質押房地產和其他資產，其中包括從 ADESA 收購的約 10 億美元的房地產。在本季度末，我們還擁有大約 120 萬台的檢驗和修復中心產能處於充分利用狀態，為我們未來的盈利增長提供了堅實的基礎設施。

This strong liquidity position, our significant production capacity runway and our clear and focused operating plan positions us well on our path to achieve our goal of driving positive cash flow and becoming the largest and most profitable auto retailer.

這種強大的流動性狀況、我們顯著的生產能力跑道以及我們清晰而專注的運營計劃使我們能夠很好地實現我們推動正現金流並成為最大和最賺錢的汽車零售商的目標。

Thank you for your attention. We'll now take questions.

感謝您的關注。我們現在來提問。

(Operator Instructions) And our first question will come from Chris Bottiglieri with PNB (sic) [BNP] Paribas.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題將來自 PNB（原文如此）[BNP] Paribas 的 Chris Bottiglieri。

The first one is, it appears that the broader used vehicle market may be facing incremental pressure in Q4 above and beyond what you've seen in Q3. That seems to be the sense the habit that you're seeing as well in Q4. I guess my question is like what's changing right now? Are there certain pockets of the market -- I'm not talking to Carvana specifically, you were pretty clear there, but what are you seeing in the market itself? Is it the low income consumers dropping out? Is it every customer segment behaving similarly? Like what are you seeing in the market environment itself in Q4 relative to Q3?

第一個是，似乎更廣泛的二手車市場在第四季度面臨的壓力可能會超過你在第三季度看到的壓力。這似乎是您在第四季度看到的習慣。我想我的問題是現在發生了什麼變化？市場上是否存在某些特定領域——我不是專門與 Carvana 交談，你在那裡很清楚，但你在市場本身中看到了什麼？是低收入消費者退出了嗎？每個客戶群的行為都相似嗎？相對於第三季度，您在第四季度的市場環境中看到了什麼？

Sure. Well, I think there's certainly a lot of headwinds. I think we've seen a tremendous amount of appreciation in car prices over the last several years. We put a stat in the shareholder letter that for a customer that is looking at car prices today and utilizing financing, their payment is up about 160% of what it would have been pre-pandemic. And I think recently, we've seen car prices depreciate to the tune of give or take 10% so far this year, but we've also seen interest rates shoot up very rapidly. And I think that, that overall has harmed affordability.

當然。好吧，我認為肯定有很多不利因素。我認為在過去幾年中，我們已經看到汽車價格大幅上漲。我們在股東信中列出了一個統計數據，對於今天正在查看汽車價格並利用融資的客戶，他們的付款比大流行前的付款增加了約 160%。我認為最近，今年到目前為止，我們已經看到汽車價格貶值了 10%，但我們也看到利率迅速上漲。我認為，總體而言，這損害了可負擔性。

I think it's always hard to suss out the rest of what's going on in the economy, but clearly, it feels like sentiment broadly is decreasing. There's a bunch of different statistics that we can look at around consumer confidence or consumer willingness to buy a car at any point in time. And I think that we tend to see some negative drift in those areas.

我認為總是很難弄清楚經濟中正在發生的其他事情，但很明顯，感覺普遍情緒正在下降。關於消費者信心或消費者在任何時間點購買汽車的意願，我們可以查看大量不同的統計數據。我認為我們傾向於在這些領域看到一些負面的變化。

I think we don't know exactly how that will unfold from here. I think we're trying to position the business in a way where we're well positioned to earn significant positive EBITDA. These volumes are lower volumes. We're going to keep marching out expenses as fast as we can. I do think that we see -- at the top funnel, we see that we're still taking market share and potentially at a pretty fast rate.

我想我們不知道這將如何從這裡展開。我認為我們正試圖以一種我們有能力獲得顯著正 EBITDA 的方式定位業務。這些卷是較低的捲。我們將繼續盡可能快地削減開支。我確實認為我們看到 - 在頂部漏斗中，我們看到我們仍在以相當快的速度佔據市場份額。

And so I think that leaves us hopeful for where demand can ultimately go and where sales can ultimately go over time. But I think the next 6 to 12 months are certainly more uncertain than they have been in recent periods where it was pretty reliable that kind of car sales would come in flat quarter-over-quarter. We were just focused on our own market share gains.

因此，我認為這讓我們對需求最終會走向何方以及隨著時間的推移最終會走向何方充滿希望。但我認為，未來 6 到 12 個月肯定比最近幾個時期更加不確定，在過去的幾個時期裡，這種汽車銷量將環比持平是相當可靠的。我們只是專注於我們自己的市場份額增長。

So I think there's a lot of things happening. I think all the things that you pointed to around demographic shifts, whether it's income or credit, whatever else, all those are active and all those are moving in the directions that you'd expect. But I don't know that there's anything particularly notable that wouldn't be expected that's occurring, just general softness, and I think we do see that across the entire industry.

所以我認為發生了很多事情。我認為你提到的所有關於人口變化的事情，無論是收入還是信貸，不管是什麼，所有這些都是活躍的，所有這些都在朝著你期望的方向發展。但我不知道有什麼特別值得注意的事情不會發生，只是普遍的疲軟，我認為我們確實在整個行業中看到了這一點。

Got you. Okay. And then just given the uncertainty, can you talk about the financing outlook? Like if the world stays uncertain, it seems like the ABS markets are like periodically open and periodically not necessarily closed, but just more expensive to get deals done. Like you had to abandon the ABS markets for a couple of quarters. Do you have enough liquidity through Ally or other partners lined up that you could actually like sell those receivables? Like how should we think about that risk of being able to -- you have still a very high level of receivables you're originating. So maybe just talk about your confidence again in those receivables offloaded in this environment.

得到你。好的。然後考慮到不確定性，你能談談融資前景嗎？就像世界仍然不確定一樣，ABS 市場似乎會定期開放，但不一定會定期關閉，但完成交易的成本更高。就像你不得不放棄 ABS 市場幾個季度一樣。您是否通過 Ally 或其他合作夥伴擁有足夠的流動性，您實際上可以出售這些應收賬款？就像我們應該如何考慮能夠實現的風險一樣——你的應收賬款水平仍然很高。因此，也許只是再次談論您對在這種環境下卸載的應收賬款的信心。

Sure. So yes, what I would say is I think the relationship with Ally remains extremely strong. We recently extended our floor plan line there for the next 18 months. And I think that the way that our relationship works is we're regularly in contact with one another. We're making sure that we come up with a plan that works great for both of us.

當然。所以是的，我想說的是，我認為與 Ally 的關係仍然非常牢固。我們最近在接下來的 18 個月裡延長了我們的平面圖線。我認為我們的關係運作的方式是我們經常相互聯繫。我們正在確保我們提出一個對我們雙方都有效的計劃。

I think as we've discussed in the past, the way that we've always thought about balancing our channels is making sure that we have access to a very high-quality channel like Ally, which in good times is probably a little bit more expensive for us. But it ensures that in tougher times where the ABS market can kind of go through difficult periods, that we've got a home for our loans.

我認為正如我們過去所討論的，我們一直在考慮平衡我們的渠道的方式是確保我們能夠訪問像 Ally 這樣的非常高質量的渠道，在好的時候可能會更多一點對我們來說很貴。但這確保了在 ABS 市場可能經歷困難時期的艱難時期，我們有一個歸宿。

And so I think we feel good about the way that we've positioned that over time. We feel great about the relationship we've got. We'll be renewing that deal as we head into next year. As we have over the last several years, I don't think we have any expectations for how that renewal will go that are different than it's been in the past. We generally set that up in a way where the economics between us and Ally are set up to ensure that they have rates of return that are comparable to what they get elsewhere in the market. And our arrangement is set up in a way that is dynamic. So it's -- those adjustments have been happening in real time throughout this year as the market has been changing.

所以我認為隨著時間的推移，我們對我們定位的方式感覺很好。我們對我們之間的關係感覺很好。進入明年，我們將續簽這筆交易。正如我們在過去幾年中所做的那樣，我認為我們對更新將如何進行與過去沒有任何不同的期望。我們通常以我們和 Ally 之間的經濟設置的方式進行設置，以確保他們的回報率與他們在市場上其他地方獲得的回報率相當。我們的安排是以動態的方式建立的。因此，隨著市場的變化，這些調整在今年全年都在實時發生。

And so I don't think we'd have any expectations for something particularly discrete. They've been a great partner for us in the past, and we've gone through periods where the ABS market was within a tough spot, including COVID. And we generally try to size our commitment between us in a way that insulates us from that.

所以我認為我們不會對特別離散的東西抱有任何期望。他們過去一直是我們的好合作夥伴，我們經歷了 ABS 市場陷入困境的時期，包括 COVID。我們通常會嘗試以一種使我們免受其影響的方式來衡量我們之間的承諾。

So I think that's generally the plan there. And I think, as I said, we feel good about it. It's a great relationship. They've been great to us. And hopefully, they feel the same way about how we've been to them.

所以我認為這通常是那裡的計劃。我認為，正如我所說，我們對此感覺良好。這是一個很好的關係。他們對我們很好。希望他們對我們對待他們的方式有同樣的感覺。

Our next question will come from Rajat Gupta with JPMorgan.

我們的下一個問題將來自摩根大通的 Rajat Gupta。

Based on your fourth quarter unit and GPU guide, it looks like the fourth quarter cash burn, excluding inventory, is likely to be similar to the third quarter. And you might need to either draw on the revolver again or tap into the real estate. Should we expect you to start tapping into the real estate in the near term already or maybe you've already done it in the fourth quarter? And if yes, how should we think about the cap rates or if you out for a sales leaseback or maybe LTVs in case of a mortgage? And I have a follow-up.

根據您的第四季度單位和 GPU 指南，看起來第四季度的現金消耗（不包括庫存）可能與第三季度相似。而且您可能需要再次使用左輪手槍或挖掘房地產。我們是否應該期望您已經在短期內開始涉足房地產，或者您可能已經在第四季度完成了？如果是的話，我們應該如何考慮上限利率，或者如果您進行銷售回租，或者在抵押貸款的情況下可能是 LTV？我有一個後續行動。

Sure. Yes. So on Q4, Ernie touched along a lot of the key dynamics. We do expect volume to be lower sequentially relative to Q3. We also expect GPU to be lower sequentially relative to Q3 as well due to some of the dynamics that Ernie discussed. At the same time, we also expect SG&A expenses to be down significantly as well as we continue to execute on all of our efficiency and cost savings initiatives. And so those are obviously offsetting -- obviously offsetting factors. We also, I would add, expect capital expenditures to continue to come down in Q4 relative to Q3. So I think those are some of the dynamics on Q4 specifically.

當然。是的。所以在第四季度，厄尼觸及了很多關鍵動態。我們確實預計交易量將比第三季度下降。由於 Ernie 討論的一些動態，我們還預計 GPU 相對於 Q3 的順序也會降低。同時，我們還預計 SG&A 費用將顯著下降，並且我們將繼續執行我們所有的效率和成本節約計劃。所以這些顯然是抵消 - 顯然是抵消因素。我還要補充一點，我們還預計第四季度的資本支出將相對於第三季度繼續下降。所以我認為這些是第四季度的一些動態。

In terms of our real estate assets, obviously, we have a very large and attractive real estate portfolio. We just acquired a nationwide network of auction sites from ADESA. I think those are large sites and very desirable markets, we think are really attractive pieces of real estate. That was a big motivation for us undertaking that acquisition. We've also been building some large IRCs in attractive markets around the country as well. And so I think we have a great real estate portfolio.

就我們的房地產資產而言，顯然，我們擁有非常龐大且具有吸引力的房地產投資組合。我們剛剛從 ADESA 收購了一個全國性的拍賣網站網絡。我認為這些都是大型網站和非常理想的市場，我們認為這些房地產真的很有吸引力。這是我們進行收購的一大動力。我們還在全國有吸引力的市場中建立了一些大型 IRC。所以我認為我們有一個很棒的房地產投資組合。

In terms of how we're thinking about financing that, I do think we have multiple options for the way we can finance that. Traditionally, in history, we've used sale-leaseback transactions. I think we've executed about $500 million of those so far in our history as a company. But I think there can also be other forms of financing for large real estate portfolio.

就我們如何考慮融資而言，我確實認為我們有多種融資方式可供選擇。傳統上，在歷史上，我們使用售後回租交易。我認為到目前為止，在我們公司的歷史上，我們已經執行了大約 5 億美元。但我認為大型房地產投資組合也可以有其他形式的融資。

So I think that's something we're thinking about. I don't think the -- I don't think -- we're going to be thoughtful about the time line on executing any real estate transactions, but we do feel like we've got a really nice base of assets there.

所以我認為這是我們正在考慮的事情。我不認為 - 我不認為 - 我們會考慮執行任何房地產交易的時間表，但我們確實覺得我們在那裡擁有非常好的資產基礎。

Got it. Have you started -- so you're not tapped into any yet, right, that's in front of you so far?

知道了。你開始了嗎——所以你還沒有被利用，對吧，到目前為止就在你面前？

I think we're going to be very thoughtful about the best way and timing for financing those assets.

我認為我們將非常考慮為這些資產融資的最佳方式和時機。

Got it. Maybe as a follow-up. You mentioned that you're looking to be profitable at $4,000 plus GPU and current volume levels. That would imply somewhere close to $100 million plus that needs to come out from those quarterly SG&A level. Can you highlight maybe a few areas where there is still some low-hanging fruit or any initiatives that are already underway to get there? And roughly, any sense of timing when you do expect to get there as this might be independent of the macro, I guess.

知道了。也許作為後續。您提到您希望以 4,000 美元加上 GPU 和當前的音量水平獲利。這意味著需要從這些季度 SG&A 水平中產生近 1 億美元以上的資金。您能否強調一些仍然有一些容易實現的成果的領域或已經在實施的任何舉措？粗略地說，我猜你確實希望到達那裡的任何時間感，因為這可能與宏觀無關。

Sure. So I mean I would start by just pointing to the progress that we made last quarter where we reduced expenses by about $90 million quarter-over-quarter, which is obviously a big number and is a meaningful number relative to the step-downs that we look to make in the future.

當然。所以我的意思是，我首先要指出我們在上個季度取得的進展，我們環比減少了大約 9000 萬美元的開支，這顯然是一個很大的數字，並且相對於我們的降級而言是一個有意義的數字展望未來。

I think undoubtedly, as you continue to march down expenses, it gets -- every incremental dollar gets a little harder than the last, but we're still at levels of expense that are much higher than we would like to be, and we're still at a place where there's obviously some low-hanging fruit. I think if we look at the gains that we made last quarter, it's probably most fair to massage out the impacts of the reduction in force that we had in May, which probably reduces that kind of $90 million in gains to something more like $70 million, but still a really meaningful number.

我認為，毫無疑問，隨著您繼續削減開支，它會變得 - 每增加一美元都會比上一美元更難一點，但我們仍然處於比我們想要的高得多的水平，而且我們仍然在一個顯然有一些低垂果實的地方。我認為，如果我們看看我們上個季度取得的收益，最公平的做法可能是消除我們在 5 月份減少兵力的影響，這可能會將 9000 萬美元的收益減少到 7000 萬美元左右，但仍然是一個非常有意義的數字。

And I think that was very broad-based. That came across the board. In other payroll, we reduced expense by $20 million and advertising, $14 million and logistics, $14 million, which is 20% of logistics spend quarter-over-quarter. And then we made gains across the board everywhere else. And other, we cut out $19 million of cost, which was 8% overall. And that was all powered by a lot of operational gains across all of our operational groups.

我認為這是非常廣泛的。這是全面的。在其他工資單方面，我們減少了 2000 萬美元的費用，廣告費用減少了 1400 萬美元，物流費用減少了 1400 萬美元，佔物流支出環比的 20%。然後我們在其他任何地方都取得了全面的收益。其他方面，我們削減了 1900 萬美元的成本，佔總成本的 8%。這一切都得益於我們所有運營團隊的大量運營收益。

The logistics network had a bunch of meaningful improvements. Network utilization was up 8% quarter-over-quarter. We've seen average shipping miles per sale down 10%. That's continued to go down further since the quarter ended. We've rolled out a new management structure at our logistics hubs, only a small subset so far. But in those hubs, we're seeing an additional 10% of gains in kind of cost per mile. And we expect to roll that out across the country over the coming quarters.

物流網絡有很多有意義的改進。網絡利用率環比增長 8%。我們看到每次銷售的平均運輸里程下降了 10%。自本季度結束以來，這一數字繼續進一步下降。我們已經在我們的物流中心推出了一個新的管理結構，到目前為止只有一小部分。但在這些樞紐中，我們看到每英里實物成本增加了 10%。我們預計在未來幾個季度將其推廣到全國。

So I think we're really excited about the gains that we're making. And we put a table in the letter that tries to break that down, so you can kind of see where that's all coming from, and it really is coming from across the business. And we expect gains from here to also come from across the business because there is still a lot of low-hanging fruit.

所以我認為我們對我們正在取得的成果感到非常興奮。我們在信中放置了一張表格，試圖將其分解，這樣您就可以看到這一切的來源，而且它確實來自整個企業。而且我們預計這方面的收益也將來自整個業務，因為仍有很多唾手可得的成果。

Our next question will come from Nick Jones with JMP Securities.

我們的下一個問題將來自 JMP 證券公司的 Nick Jones。

I guess just taking a big step back and looking at next year, is it kind of for used car retail? Is it really just kind of seeing prices come down and affordability come down? Or will this be difficult if OEMs can't kind of put more cars into the ecosystem? I guess kind of how are you thinking about what kind of key indicators to you indicate things are kind of normalizing as we kind of get through 4Q and start looking into next year?

我想只是退後一步，看看明年，二手車零售嗎？真的只是看到價格下降和負擔能力下降嗎？或者，如果原始設備製造商無法將更多汽車投入生態系統，這會很困難嗎？我想您如何看待您認為隨著我們度過第四季度並開始展望明年的情況正在正常化的關鍵指標？

I think that's probably a very complicated question. So I think all we can do is kind of reach back in history and try to give you some data points that we think might be relevant. I think the point that you've made about OEMs producing fewer cars over the last couple of years is correct and relevant. Although I will say that if we go back to the 2008, 2009 recession, there were dramatically more cars pulled out of the ecosystem during that period. And if we look at used car sales over the next several years, they were pretty marginally impacted by that. I think debatably in the data, you can kind of see an echo of that decrease in OEM production, but it's not particularly pronounced. And I think the reduction in volume over the last couple of years, I said, has been a small fraction of the reduction volume over the couple of years surrounding that recession.

我認為這可能是一個非常複雜的問題。因此，我認為我們所能做的就是追溯歷史，並嘗試為您提供一些我們認為可能相關的數據點。我認為您關於 OEM 在過去幾年中生產的汽車數量減少的觀點是正確且相關的。儘管我會說，如果我們回到 2008 年、2009 年的經濟衰退，那段時期有更多的汽車退出了生態系統。如果我們看看未來幾年的二手車銷售情況，它們受到的影響很小。我認為在數據中值得商榷，你可以看到 OEM 產量下降的迴聲，但這並不是特別明顯。我認為過去幾年的交易量減少，我說，只是圍繞經濟衰退的幾年減少量的一小部分。

I think cars also inflated dramatically relative to other goods in a dynamic that I think is pretty abnormal and unprecedented, at least in my knowledge set. Cars really moved up materially in cost. And the rest of kind of good in the economy for a long time were relatively stable. And now kind of cars are really coming down in cost at the same time that other goods in the economy are going up. And so I think debatably on kind of like a relative affordability, relative value basis, cars are potentially moving in a good direction.

我認為汽車相對於其他商品也急劇膨脹，我認為這是非常不正常和史無前例的，至少在我的知識範圍內。汽車的成本確實大幅上漲。而經濟中的其他類利好長期相對穩定。現在，在經濟中其他商品上漲的同時，汽車的成本確實在下降。所以我認為，在相對負擔能力、相對價值的基礎上，汽車可能會朝著好的方向發展。

I think that may also be true just depending on what your view is of rates, but if we use the forward interest rate curve as an indication of where rates are going to go, there should be more of the increases behind us than there are in front of us. And for most customers who use financing to buy a car, that's obviously a meaningful input.

我認為這也可能是正確的，這取決於您對利率的看法，但如果我們使用遠期利率曲線作為利率走向的指標，那麼我們背後的增長應該比現在更多我們面前。對於大多數使用融資購買汽車的客戶來說，這顯然是一個有意義的投入。

I think if we look back to 2008 and 2009 as well, and we try to say, where did the used car market bottom, it did probably bottom, give or take, 6 months before the stock market bottomed and maybe a little longer than that before like the economy bottomed in some total. I think that did correspond at the time with roughly when the fed started cutting interest rates, which who knows when that happens in this cycle. But I think that's how that played out last cycle. And as I said, I think there's a lot of dynamics that are pretty different right now and pretty unprecedented.

我認為，如果我們也回顧 2008 年和 2009 年，我們會嘗試說，二手車市場在哪裡觸底，它可能觸底，在股市觸底前 6 個月，可能比那更長一點之前好像經濟總有一些觸底。我認為這確實與美聯儲開始降息的時間大致相符，誰知道在這個週期中什麼時候發生。但我認為這就是上個週期的結果。正如我所說，我認為現在有很多動態非常不同，而且是前所未有的。

So I think without trying to look at everything like the glass is half full, I do think -- we want to make sure that we prepare for the worst, but I do think there's reasons to believe that there could be some good things that can happen in auto relative to other categories over the next 12 months. And I think those are driven by the fact that cars are extremely expensive. They're extremely sensitive to interest rates. And there's been a lot of movement in those areas recently. And it looks more likely that some of that movement will unwind in the future than not.

所以我認為不要像杯子半滿那樣去看待所有事情，我確實認為——我們希望確保我們為最壞的情況做好準備，但我確實認為有理由相信可能會有一些好的事情可以在接下來的 12 個月內，汽車相對於其他類別發生。我認為這些是由汽車非常昂貴的事實驅動的。他們對利率極為敏感。最近在這些領域發生了很多變化。而且看起來更有可能的是，其中一些運動在未來會有所緩解。

So we'll be paying attention like everyone else will. I think we'll be setting up the business to be as flexible as it possibly can be. We'll be driving down expenses as quickly as possible. And like I said, planning for the worst and hoping for the best. But it's a hard one to call, I think, at this point.

所以我們會像其他人一樣關注。我認為我們將把業務設置得盡可能靈活。我們將盡快降低開支。就像我說的，做最壞的打算，做最好的希望。但在這一點上，我認為這很難打電話。

Got it. And maybe just one quick follow-up on GPU. How at risk is GPU from some of these factors like depreciation rates? I mean how much -- how should we think about that kind of into 4Q and into next year? Can that compress kind of quite a bit? Or do you feel comfortable that it's kind of range-bound and you can protect GPU to an extent?

知道了。也許只是對 GPU 的快速跟進。 GPU 受到折舊率等因素的影響有多大？我的意思是，我們應該如何考慮到第四季度和明年？可以壓縮很多嗎？或者你覺得它是一種範圍限制並且你可以在一定程度上保護 GPU 嗎？

So let me start with the market factors, and then I'll kind of roll into the things that we're in control of. I think the first and simplest mental model for all this is that different players in the industry, whether we're talking about the finance industry or the automotive retail industry, are generally trying to kind of achieve a certain profit for the efforts that they're undertaking, right? And so I think, over time, there's obviously kind of ballast in the market that is trying to kind of find its normal range.

所以讓我從市場因素開始，然後我會介紹我們可以控制的事情。我認為所有這一切的第一個也是最簡單的心智模型是該行業的不同參與者，無論我們談論的是金融業還是汽車零售業，通常都試圖通過他們的努力獲得一定的利潤。重新承諾，對吧？所以我認為，隨著時間的推移，市場上顯然有一種鎮流器試圖找到它的正常範圍。

I think that it is probably true that, that ballast is stronger in the forces that impact retail GPU than finance GPU. And that's because in our view at least, retailers have much more similar cost structures. They have much more similar profit goals. They don't have variation in input costs. They tend to not have huge cash cushions, which puts in this well where they need to kind of earn period to period. And I think that's why if you look over time, you see a lot of correlation between depreciation rates and wholesale retail spreads, and you see a lot of stability in retail margins across many retailers across many cycles.

我認為這可能是真的，在影響零售 GPU 的力量方面，鎮流器比金融 GPU 更強大。這是因為至少在我們看來，零售商的成本結構更加相似。他們有更多相似的利潤目標。它們的投入成本沒有變化。他們往往沒有大量的現金緩衝，這使得他們需要在一段時間內賺取收益。我認為這就是為什麼如果你隨著時間的推移，你會看到折舊率和批發零售價差之間存在很多相關性，並且你會看到許多零售商在許多周期內的零售利潤率非常穩定。

And so I think from a market force perspective, that has historically been a pretty stable number. And I think that would be our expectation going forward. But I also think that we're in a period where some of those moves are just happening very, very fast. And I think when they happen very fast, I think it leaves room for either kind of error relative to what we've seen in the past. And so I think we need to prepare for that.

所以我認為從市場力量的角度來看，這在歷史上一直是一個相當穩定的數字。我認為這將是我們未來的期望。但我也認為，我們正處於其中一些舉措發生得非常非常快的時期。而且我認為當它們發生得非常快時，相對於我們過去看到的情況，我認為它為任何一種錯誤留下了空間。所以我認為我們需要為此做好準備。

I think on the finance GPU side, I think there's room for those forces to be a little bit slower. Different finance companies have different underlying cost of funds and utilize different methods for passing on cost of fund increases to their customers. We've seen evidence for many finance companies out there that they've been passing on cost of funds more in line with fed funds than with 2-year treasury, which is more of the benchmark that we use.

我認為在金融 GPU 方面，我認為這些力量有放緩的空間。不同的財務公司有不同的基礎資金成本，並採用不同的方法將資金增加的成本轉嫁給客戶。我們已經看到許多金融公司的證據表明，它們傳遞的資金成本更符合聯邦基金，而不是 2 年期國債，這更像是我們使用的基準。

I think to the extent that's true, once kind of treasury is correctly predicting what fed fund is going to do over the next 2 years, it should stabilize and then the fed funds rate would likely continue to go up and kind of that gap would collapse and that would probably be helpful for us, both in terms of finance GPU and in terms of retail sales volumes that are driven by the quality offers that we give to our financing customers.

我認為在一定程度上這是真的，一旦某種財政部正確地預測了聯邦基金在未來 2 年將要做什麼，它應該會穩定下來，然後聯邦基金利率可能會繼續上升，這種差距就會縮小這可能對我們有所幫助，無論是在金融 GPU 方面，還是在我們向融資客戶提供的優質產品驅動下的零售量方面。

But I do think that just given that, that's a market that's dominated by fewer players with more variation input costs and who do have cash cushions who can absorb different strategies, I think there's more risk that, that could move around in more abnormal ways relative to history. But I think we're just going to have to watch that and see it play out.

但我確實認為，考慮到這一點，這是一個由更少的參與者主導的市場，具有更多的變化投入成本，並且他們確實擁有可以吸收不同策略的現金緩衝，我認為存在更大的風險，這可能會以更不正常的方式相對到歷史。但我認為我們只需要觀察它並看到它發揮作用。

Now what's in our control? What's in our control is where we set price and where we set interest rates and where we set bids on cars that we're buying from customers. And I think that in all those areas, there's probably a little bit of room for us to be able to adjust to an environment where underlying costs, regardless of what one of those costs take, go up. If it's our -- the input cost of our cars or the cost of financing for our customers, I do think we have some natural offsets there where we likely have some room.

現在我們可以控制什麼？我們可以控制的是我們在哪裡設定價格、在哪裡設定利率以及我們在哪里為我們從客戶那裡購買的汽車設定出價。而且我認為，在所有這些領域，我們可能有一點空間來適應一個基本成本上升的環境，無論其中一個成本是什麼，都會上升。如果這是我們的 - 我們的汽車的投入成本或我們客戶的融資成本，我確實認為我們在那裡有一些自然的抵消，我們可能有一些空間。

And so as we said, kind of I think our #1 goal is going to be really focused on expenses in this environment, really focused on being purposeful about driving more of our most profitable sales and fewer of our less profitable sales, pay very close attention to what's going on in the world around us as it's moving as dynamically as it has been, and then pull the levers that we've got control of to try to do the best we can to manage through it all. And I think that's the plan. And like I said, we'll be paying close attention from here. There's a lot of room for things to vary relative to the past over the next couple of quarters.

正如我們所說，我認為我們的第一目標將真正專注於在這種環境下的支出，真正專注於有目的地推動更多我們最賺錢的銷售，減少我們利潤較低的銷售，支付非常接近注意我們周圍的世界正在發生的事情，因為它一直在動態地移動，然後拉動我們可以控制的槓桿，盡我們所能來管理這一切。我認為這就是計劃。就像我說的，我們將從這裡密切關注。在接下來的幾個季度裡，事情相對於過去有很大的變化空間。

Our next question will come from Adam Jonas with Morgan Stanley.

我們的下一個問題將來自摩根士丹利的亞當喬納斯。

Ernie, does the business need more equity capital? And would your family consider giving up control if that was required to maintain the company as a going concern?

厄尼，企業需要更多的股權資本嗎？如果需要維持公司的持續經營，您的家人會考慮放棄控制權嗎？

So I think you'll -- as you see here, our goals are going to be on driving down expenses and trying to get positive EBITDA as quickly as we can. We've got a bunch of committed liquidity. We've got a bunch of real estate. And I think that we feel like that puts us in a good position to ride out this storm. And we're making great moves inside the company.

所以我認為你會 - 正如你在這裡看到的那樣，我們的目標將是降低開支並儘可能快地獲得正的 EBITDA。我們有大量承諾的流動性。我們有一堆不動產。而且我認為我們覺得這使我們處於度過這場風暴的有利位置。我們正在公司內部做出重大舉措。

So I think that we're extremely optimistic about riding all that out. And then I just think as it relates to hypotheticals, we'll stay away from those. We're just going to keep running our play and moving forward.

所以我認為我們對解決所有這些問題非常樂觀。然後我只是認為，因為它與假設有關，我們會遠離那些。我們將繼續進行我們的比賽並繼續前進。

All right, Ernie. Just as a follow-up. On CapEx, the $90 million in the quarter, backing out the first half, was that gap between the $50 million target? How much of that was ADESA? And you said you'd target a reduction, but I didn't know if you could identify a bit of a quantum from the -- into fourth quarter of how much that could be reduced. Appreciate it.

好吧，厄尼。只是作為一個後續。在資本支出方面，本季度的 9,000 萬美元（剔除上半年）是否與 5,000 萬美元的目標之間存在差距？其中有多少是ADESA？你說你的目標是減少，但我不知道你是否能確定從第四季度到第四季度可以減少多少。欣賞它。

Sure. We -- I think we initially laid out some CapEx targets by quarter in May. And I think our budget for Q3 was $100 million at the time, and I think we came just under that at $90 million. And our target at the time for Q4 was $50 million.

當然。我們 - 我認為我們最初在 5 月的季度之前製定了一些資本支出目標。我認為當時我們第三季度的預算是 1 億美元，我認為我們的預算是 9000 萬美元。我們當時第四季度的目標是 5000 萬美元。

Next question will come from John Colantuoni with Jefferies.

下一個問題將來自 Jefferies 的 John Colantuoni。

So just curious if you could lay out which areas of the industry you saw the biggest deterioration relative to your expectations last quarter and how much those areas of surprise impacted vehicle GPU and SG&A per unit. I guess what I'm asking is if you look back at those areas of surprise, can you help size how much progress you would have made on your operational goals absent the softening macro?

所以只是好奇你是否可以列出相對於你上個季度的預期，你看到的行業哪些領域惡化最大，以及這些意外領域對車輛 GPU 和每單位 SG&A 的影響有多大。我想我要問的是，如果您回顧這些令人驚訝的領域，您能否幫助確定在沒有宏觀軟化的情況下您在運營目標上會取得多少進展？

Sure. I think when we laid out our operating plan in May, we talked about several goals that we laid out for the end of this year, and we kind of talked about how -- in order to hit those goals, we would expect to get a little bit of help from units. So we're clearly in a spot where units have moved in the wrong direction over the last quarter. And I think that, that's probably the area where there's been the biggest change relative to what our expectations would have been then.

當然。我認為當我們在 5 月份制定運營計劃時，我們談到了我們為今年年底制定的幾個目標，並且我們談到瞭如何——為了實現這些目標，我們希望獲得來自單位的一點幫助。因此，我們顯然處於一個單位在上個季度朝錯誤方向移動的地方。我認為，這可能是相對於我們當時的預期發生最大變化的領域。

Now I think a lot has moved, right? We've seen interest rates move up materially and most customers use financing to buy a car. We've seen depreciation rates move up quite a bit. We've seen that probably slow down our progress on GPU as we focus on originating more profitable sales and fewer less profitable sales. I think the kind of line of which sales you want to originate moves up and down with GPU. And then you also have kind of just the broader headwinds in the industry.

現在我想很多事情都發生了，對吧？我們已經看到利率大幅上升，大多數客戶使用融資購買汽車。我們已經看到折舊率上升了很多。我們已經看到，這可能會減慢我們在 GPU 方面的進展，因為我們專注於創造更多有利可圖的銷售和更少利潤較低的銷售。我認為你想要產生的銷售類型隨著 GPU 的變化而上下波動。然後你也會遇到行業中更廣泛的逆風。

So I think those have been the adjustments that we've been making in real time as we've been adjusting to the changing world, just like everyone else. I think -- again, I think we got to be careful with hypotheticals, but I think to just try to provide something of a framework, I do think that in short periods of time and within reasonable range of units, today, expenses and units are moving somewhat independently, right? They're certainly not completely independent. They're obviously variable costs involved with selling a car. But when you're overbuilt, the underlying variable costs are obviously much, much lower.

所以我認為這些是我們一直在實時進行的調整，因為我們一直在適應不斷變化的世界，就像其他人一樣。我認為 - 再次，我認為我們必須小心假設，但我認為只是嘗試提供一些框架，我確實認為在短時間內和合理的單位範圍內，今天，費用和單位有點獨立移動，對吧？他們當然不是完全獨立的。它們顯然是與銷售汽車有關的可變成本。但是當你過度建設時，潛在的可變成本顯然要低得多。

And so I think had units been higher, I think it could have made a material difference to where our results were on a per unit basis. But I think, like I said, all we can do is kind of keep doing the best job we can forecasting the world in front of us, recognize that it's probably better to miss conservative and to miss aggressive and then try to drive down expenses and make the best decisions we can, pulling the other levers as we manage through it. And so that's what we'll continue to do.

所以我認為如果單位更高，我認為這可能會對我們的單位結果產生重大影響。但我認為，就像我說的那樣，我們所能做的就是繼續盡我們所能預測我們面前的世界，認識到最好不要保守，不要激進，然後努力降低開支和做出我們能做的最好的決定，在我們管理的過程中拉動其他的槓桿。這就是我們將繼續做的事情。

Great. And I wanted to ask about your expectations for how used car prices coming down in the coming months impacts used cars demand. Do you see consumers waiting for used car prices to hit a floor before buying, picks up more materially? Or do you see there being more of a linear relationship between declining prices and rising demand? And at what point do we start to see that material uptick in used car velocity? Do prices need to reach prepandemic prices or 5% above prepandemic prices? I'm curious if you sort of thought about that at all.

偉大的。我想問一下您對未來幾個月二手車價格下跌如何影響二手車需求的預期。您是否看到消費者在購買之前等待二手車價格觸底，從而獲得更多實質性？還是您認為價格下降和需求上升之間存在更多的線性關係？我們在什麼時候開始看到二手車速度的材料上升？價格是否需要達到疫情前的價格或高於疫情前的 5%？我很好奇你有沒有想過這個。

Sure. I think they're all good questions, and I think they're all hard to answer. What I would say is I think probably all those different forces are continuous forces. And then there's kind of the unknown of just what our consumer is going to be feeling as we head through the next 6 to 12 months. Depending on everything else that's going on in the economy, I think that's pretty hard to call.

當然。我認為它們都是很好的問題，而且我認為它們都很難回答。我想說的是，我認為可能所有這些不同的力量都是連續的力量。然後在接下來的 6 到 12 個月內，我們的消費者會有什麼感受還不得而知。取決於經濟中發生的其他一切，我認為這很難說。

I don't think that there's -- we don't believe that there's any kind of particular lines that prices have to drop below. We just think the kind of lower is better. And we think the consumer spent a lot over the last 18 months reading article after article about how expensive cars were. And that probably is not helpful in a way that's unbelievably difficult to measure. But we see pop out in some surveys of consumer perceptions of how good of a time it is to buy a car right now.

我不認為有 - 我們不相信價格必須跌破任何特定的線。我們只是認為越低越好。我們認為消費者在過去 18 個月里花了很多時間閱讀一篇又一篇關於汽車有多貴的文章。這可能以難以置信的難以衡量的方式沒有幫助。但我們看到，一些消費者對現在買車的好時機的看法突然出現。

So I think what we want, I think, is to root for the fundamentals, which is we want to root for interest rates to stabilize. We want to root for car prices to go down and get more affordable for our customers. We want to root for economic stability. And I think all of those things are helpful. And I think all of those are also under uncertainty, and so we wouldn't want to precisely call when those forces start to move in our direction.

所以我認為我們想要的，我認為，是根植於基本面，我們想要根植於利率穩定。我們希望支持汽車價格下降並為我們的客戶提供更實惠的價格。我們要為經濟穩定紮根。我認為所有這些都是有幫助的。而且我認為所有這些也都處於不確定性之中，因此我們不想準確地判斷這些力量何時開始向我們的方向移動。

Our next question will come from Seth Basham with Wedbush Securities.

我們的下一個問題將來自 Wedbush Securities 的 Seth Basham。

You're taking actions to improve GPU, but those actions are having to be impact on unit sales even beyond market forces. And in the fourth quarter, you're anticipating volumes and GPUs to be down sequentially. Do you take more drastic actions in one direction or the other here to improve on those metrics even as you consider the macro forces?

您正在採取措施改進 GPU，但這些措施必須對單位銷售產生影響，甚至超出市場力量。在第四季度，您預計銷量和 GPU 將依次下降。即使您考慮宏觀力量，您是否會在一個方向或另一個方向上採取更激烈的行動來改進這些指標？

I think we're going to try to miss aggressive is what I would say. And we've got the whole company pushing hard in this direction of managing expenses down. And I do think the progress that we've made is great. And I do, once again, I want to point to the fact that I think there's a lot of people inside Carvana doing some of the best and fastest most effective work they've ever done. I think as a company, we're getting more done now than we ever have. And I think that it's unfortunate is coming at the time we're facing so many headwinds and so it's a little bit harder to see the fruits of all that labor.

我認為我們會嘗試錯過激進的，這就是我要說的。我們已經讓整個公司朝著降低管理費用的方向努力。我確實認為我們取得的進展非常好。我想再次指出這樣一個事實，即我認為 Carvana 內部有很多人在做一些他們做過的最好、最快、最有效的工作。我認為作為一家公司，我們現在完成的工作比以往任何時候都多。而且我認為不幸的是，我們面臨如此多的逆風，因此很難看到所有這些勞動的成果。

But I think that there's a lot of great work being done. And I think that in the fullness of time, that will all kind of ultimately show up. But I think for now, it's more of the same. I just think we keep our heads down and keep fighting through that. And then when we get to the other side of this, really, which I would define in kind of 2 steps. I think one big move is just stability. Once rates stop going up, and we get to a spot where there is a little bit of stability in the economy, even if car sales stay at a depressed level and we're able to just kind of continue to grow our demand market share from there, I think that puts us in a really good spot.

但我認為有很多偉大的工作正在完成。而且我認為，隨著時間的推移，這一切最終都會出現。但我認為現在，情況大致相同。我只是認為我們保持低調並繼續戰鬥。然後當我們到達另一邊時，真的，我會用兩個步驟來定義。我認為一大步就是穩定。一旦利率停止上漲，我們就會達到經濟稍微穩定的地步，即使汽車銷售處於低迷水平，我們也能夠繼續增加我們的需求市場份額，從在那裡，我認為這使我們處於一個非常好的位置。

And then I think once you get to the extremely exciting place where the entire industry turns around, I think that's great because then I think we have double tailwinds there. We have kind of our own market share gains that we would expect to get that would be accentuated by increase in GPU, which make more sales more attractive for us to go attack. And then you'd also have the tailwinds of the industry itself. But I think we're just kind of not planning for that for now. We're just trying to drive down expenses and we'll pay attention and make adjustments as we need to.

然後我認為，一旦你到達了整個行業都在轉折的極其令人興奮的地方，我認為這很好，因為我認為我們在那裡有雙重順風。我們有一些我們自己的市場份額增長，我們希望獲得這種增長，這將通過 GPU 的增加而得到加強，這使得更多的銷售對我們更具吸引力去進攻。然後你也會有這個行業本身的順風。但我認為我們現在還沒有計劃。我們只是想降低開支，我們會注意並根據需要進行調整。

Just to follow up, considering you have capacity for 1.4 million units and you're on a run rate of $400,000 or less, and you have a lot of markets that are doing low volumes and aren't near IRCs, wouldn't it be prudent at this point in time to IRCs and pull out of some markets?

只是跟進一下，考慮到您有 140 萬台的產能，並且您的運行速度為 400,000 美元或更少，而且您有很多市場正在做低產量並且不靠近 IRC，不是嗎？在這個時間點對 IRC 謹慎並退出一些市場？

So I think, as I said, I'm going to say one level probably more abstract than you wish here, but I think we're definitely going to be taking actions to try and drive down expenses as quickly as we feel like we responsibly can. And we have been, and you can see kind of the benefits there in our results. Again, we dropped expenses by $90 million last quarter, quarter-over-quarter. That's pretty fast. And that's due to a lot of choices we made across the company and a lot of great execution, and our goal is to continue doing that.

所以我認為，正如我所說，我會說一個層次可能比你希望在這裡更抽象，但我認為我們肯定會採取行動，盡可能快地降低開支，因為我們覺得我們負責任能夠。我們一直在，你可以在我們的結果中看到一些好處。同樣，我們上個季度的支出環比減少了 9000 萬美元。這相當快。這是由於我們在整個公司做出了很多選擇和很多出色的執行，我們的目標是繼續這樣做。

Our next question will come from Brian Nagel with Oppenheimer.

我們的下一個問題將來自奧本海默的 Brian Nagel。

So first question I have, we talked a lot about the degree to which you're working on the expense side of the business and then the challenges out there. So in the nearer term, as you're contingent with these demand headwinds, I know they're big in terms of both affordability and you're probably confidence, is there any other levers that Carvana could pull to try to offset that from the demand side or there are tools at your disposal that you would consider pulling?

所以我的第一個問題是，我們談了很多關於您在業務費用方面的工作程度以及那裡的挑戰。因此，在短期內，由於您可能會遇到這些需求逆風，我知道它們在可負擔性方面都很大，而且您可能很有信心，Carvana 是否可以採取任何其他槓桿來試圖抵消這一點是需求方還是有可供您使用的工具，您會考慮拉動？

Sure. Something we haven't talked about on this call is I do think the underlying demand picture looks better than the sales picture in our minds at least. I think if we -- one way to try to massage out kind of differential impacts of kind of interest rate policies between us and other players and to massage out some of the impacts of rising rates is to just look at the sales volume that we have for customers that use cash to buy cars from us. And so if we look at that, we grew by over 20% year-over-year in the quarter, which was over 30% faster than the rest of the company.

當然。我們在這次電話會議上沒有談到的是，我確實認為至少在我們看來，潛在的需求情況比銷售情況要好。我認為，如果我們試圖消除我們和其他參與者之間利率政策的差異影響並消除利率上升的一些影響的一種方法是只看我們擁有的銷量對於使用現金從我們這裡購買汽車的客戶。因此，如果我們看一下，我們在本季度同比增長超過 20%，比公司其他部門快 30% 以上。

So that's pretty meaningful gains there. I think we also have spoken a bit abstractly about many of these choices we're making to try to pursue more profitable sales and to forego less profitable sales across the company. That takes many, many different forms. But I think the easiest form to kind of understand there and for us to articulate is to just look at different regions in the country. So if we look at the middle of the country, which is where we have many more of our inspection centers and many more cars that are closer to our customers, we grew 4% quarter-over-quarter. If we look at the 2 coasts, we shrunk pretty meaningfully quarter-over-quarter. And so the middle of the country -- or excuse me, year-over-year. And so the middle of the country outgrew the coast by over 10% there as well. And there's many underlying actions that are causing kind of more of our sales to be concentrated in the middle of the country as we pursue more profitable sales. But even in the middle of the country, they're impacted by our choice to pursue more profitable sales and to forego less profitable sales.

所以這是非常有意義的收穫。我認為我們也有點抽像地談到了我們正在做出的許多選擇，以嘗試追求更高利潤的銷售並放棄整個公司利潤較低的銷售。這需要很多很多不同的形式。但我認為最容易理解和表達的形式就是看看這個國家的不同地區。因此，如果我們看看該國中部，那裡有更多的檢驗中心和更多離客戶更近的汽車，我們的季度環比增長了 4%。如果我們看一下這兩個海岸，我們的季度環比收縮非常明顯。所以這個國家的中部——或者對不起，年復一年。因此，該國中部的面積也超過了沿海地區的 10% 以上。隨著我們追求更有利可圖的銷售，有許多潛在的行動導致我們更多的銷售集中在該國中部。但即使在該國中部，他們也會受到我們選擇追求更高利潤的銷售並放棄利潤較低的銷售的影響。

And so when you look at all that, you kind of can start to -- you got to be careful when you're layering multiple effects and compounding them, but you can see that when we look at cash customers, there's a lot of growth there. And when we look at the middle of the country where we're making less dramatic moves to cut out less profitable sales, there's growth there. And you start to layer that on top of each other, and you can see that there really is underlying demand growth.

因此，當您查看所有這些時，您可能會開始-在將多種效果分層並複合時必須小心，但是您可以看到，當我們查看現金客戶時，會有很多增長那裡。當我們看看這個國家中部，我們正在採取不那麼戲劇性的舉措來削減利潤較低的銷售時，那裡就會出現增長。然後你開始把它疊加起來，你可以看到確實存在潛在的需求增長。

And so I think our view is if the industry can stabilize and if we can get to a spot where GPUs were -- they can kind of settle out and be a little more stable and a little more reliable as we get stability in interest rates, I think that gives us a chance to start to go express that underlying demand growth again. But for the time being, I think we have to prudently manage the business for profitability and cash flow, and we've faced a number of headwinds that have caused us to pull back.

因此，我認為我們的觀點是，如果行業能夠穩定下來，如果我們能夠達到 GPU 所處的位置——它們可以安定下來，並且隨著利率的穩定而變得更加穩定和可靠，我認為這讓我們有機會再次開始表達潛在的需求增長。但就目前而言，我認為我們必須謹慎地管理業務以實現盈利和現金流，而且我們面臨著許多導致我們退縮的逆風。

So I think the underlying demand, we believe, is still there like it was before, but I think the pretty dramatic change in sort of strategic direction from a heavy focus on growth to a heavy focus on cost certainly is imposing a cost on volumes that you're seeing in our results.

所以我認為，我們認為，潛在需求仍然像以前一樣存在，但我認為戰略方向的相當戲劇性變化，從重點關注增長到重點關注成本，這無疑給銷量帶來了成本你在我們的結果中看到了。

Perfect. And just one follow-up, Ernie. So look, Carvana is unique in that it's still primarily a virtual model. As you look at this, the overall demand picture, what's happening in the sector from a demand. Do you think that Carvana and its still largely virtual model is incrementally hampered here versus maybe more traditional dealers or vice versa?

完美的。只有一個後續，厄尼。所以看，Carvana 的獨特之處在於它仍然主要是一個虛擬模型。當你看到這個，整體需求圖，從需求來看該行業正在發生什麼。您是否認為 Carvana 及其仍然主要是虛擬的模型在這裡受到了越來越多的阻礙，而不是可能更傳統的經銷商，反之亦然？

I think undoubtedly, the swing in strategy from grow as fast as you can to get profitable as fast as you can is a big change. And I think that has many impacts across every part of the company. And I think that, that change in strategy, all else constant, has probably made our work a little bit harder than 4 different retailers out there that weren't pursuing as aggressive of a growth strategy, and we're kind of already in more of a profit mindset. So I think that -- probably that has been the bigger driver of kind of differential pressure that we felt.

我認為毫無疑問，從盡可能快地增長到盡可能快地盈利的戰略轉變是一個很大的變化。我認為這對公司的每個部分都有很多影響。而且我認為，戰略的變化，其他一切都保持不變，可能使我們的工作比那裡的 4 家不同的零售商更難一些，他們沒有追求積極的增長戰略，而且我們已經有點的盈利心態。所以我認為——這可能是我們感受到的壓差的更大驅動因素。

Now that said, I think if you look at the direction of our results, whether it's expenses or EBITDA or whatever else, I think the direction is good. We decreased our EBITDA loss in the quarter. I think given the headwinds that are seen everywhere else, a lot of other retailers are probably seeing their results get worse in the quarter, right? So I think directionally, we're making some pretty good steps or taking some pretty good steps. But I think probably that change, all else constant, has been hard, and I think that we're making it, and I think the team is doing a great job. And I would associate that more with the change in strategy than I would with the model.

話雖如此，我認為如果你看看我們結果的方向，無論是費用還是 EBITDA 或其他任何東西，我認為方向是好的。我們減少了本季度的 EBITDA 虧損。我認為，鑑於其他地方都存在逆風，許多其他零售商可能會看到他們的業績在本季度變得更糟，對吧？所以我認為在方向上，我們正在採取一些非常好的步驟或採取一些非常好的步驟。但我認為這種改變可能很困難，其他一切都是不變的，我認為我們正在取得成功，我認為團隊做得很好。我會更多地將其與戰略變化聯繫起來，而不是與模型聯繫起來。

I think the business model kind of is built and aimed at a certain volume, we believe has kind of lower variable costs and higher fixed costs in the traditional business. But even at this level of volume is positioned to earn a lot of EBITDA when you're in a place where you're kind of stable and you're not swinging from one strategy to another.

我認為這種商業模式是針對一定數量而建立的，我們認為在傳統業務中具有較低的可變成本和較高的固定成本。但是，即使在這種水平的交易量下，當您處於一個穩定且不會從一種策略轉向另一種策略的地方時，也可以賺取大量 EBITDA。

Our next question will come from Chris Pierce with Needham & Company.

我們的下一個問題將來自 Needham & Company 的 Chris Pierce。

Another end market question. I'm just kind of curious, we've been seeing wholesale prices come down pretty aggressively, but we're not seeing that at the retail level. So is it -- when this happens and when these spreads widen out, what do we need to see? Do you always need a clear existing inventory? Like are they not willing to do that because they don't want to take losses? Like I'm just trying to get a sense of when demand might actually come back and we need to see not just lower prices -- well, lower prices kind of what -- how would you think about demand coming back and when that could happen? Or what happens when these spreads widen out this much?

另一個終端市場問題。我只是有點好奇，我們一直看到批發價格大幅下降，但在零售層面並沒有看到這種情況。是這樣嗎 - 當這種情況發生並且這些擴散擴大時，我們需要看到什麼？您是否總是需要清晰的現有庫存？就像他們不願意那樣做是因為他們不想承擔損失嗎？就像我只是想了解需求何時會真正恢復，我們不僅需要看到更低的價格——嗯，更低的價格之類的——你會如何看待需求回升以及何時會發生?或者當這些價差擴大這麼多時會發生什麼？

Yes, sure. I think -- I mean you largely described the dynamic that I think has been the average dynamic over time, which is, generally speaking, wholesale prices lead. And so whether it's up or down, they tend to lead. And it's because, for the most part, kind of a heavily simplified mental model is that dealers are not buying cars at wholesale and then they plan to make a certain amount of profit on that car, and they sell that car between 30 and 90 days later, and they're going to aim for kind of earning the profit that they're shooting for on that car in 30 to 90 days.

是的，當然。我認為 - 我的意思是您在很大程度上描述了我認為隨時間推移的平均動態，一般來說，批發價格領先。因此，無論是上漲還是下跌，他們都傾向於領先。這是因為，在很大程度上，一種高度簡化的心理模型是，經銷商不是批發購買汽車，然後他們計劃從那輛車上賺取一定的利潤，然後在 30 到 90 天之間賣掉那輛車稍後，他們的目標是在 30 到 90 天內賺取他們在這輛車上爭取的利潤。

And so when we saw prices appreciating over the last 2 years, we saw the wholesale market leading up the retail market. And if you looked in real time, you saw the wholesale retail spread massively collapsed. But then that was offset in dealers profit margins by the appreciation that we've seen or equivalently by the lag time with which they would kind of change their pricing to the market. And then as it's gone down, we're seeing more of the same.

因此，當我們看到過去兩年價格上漲時，我們看到批發市場引領零售市場。如果您實時查看，您會看到批發零售價差大幅崩潰。但是，經銷商的利潤率被我們看到的升值所抵消，或者被他們改變市場定價的滯後時間所抵消。然後隨著它的下降，我們看到更多相同的東西。

And I think if you look over the last 2 years, there have been many, many changes of direction of depreciation. And every time there's been at least a directionally offsetting change in wholesale retail spreads. So I think that what we're seeing in the wholesale market is most likely to be used a preview of what we're going to see in the retail market over the next couple of months. That's at least been the way that it's historically played out, and that it's played out over the last couple of years.

而且我認為，如果你回顧過去兩年，貶值方向發生了很多很多變化。每次批發零售價差至少有一個方向性的抵消變化。因此，我認為我們在批發市場上看到的最有可能被用來預覽我們在未來幾個月內將在零售市場上看到的情況。至少這是它在歷史上的表現方式，並且在過去幾年中一直在發揮作用。

So is it too simplistic to think that it would be better to push inventory and reset at these lower prices? I know that turns, et cetera, is 30 to 90 days like you spoke about. But it seems like instead of just waiting and waiting and having lower unit sales, I'm just kind of curious how dealers would think about those 2 situations. So (inaudible) hope to earn my standard GPU or just kind of move on from this aged inventory.

那麼認為以這些較低的價格推庫存和重置會更好，是不是過於簡單化了？我知道像你所說的那樣，輪流等是 30 到 90 天。但似乎不僅僅是等待和等待以及單位銷量下降，我只是有點好奇經銷商會如何看待這兩種情況。所以（聽不清）希望獲得我的標準 GPU，或者只是從這個陳舊的庫存中繼續前進。

So I think that, that framework is, I think, more of like a real-time earnings optimizing framework instead of like a total earnings over -- across time framework. And I think many dealers oftentimes think about optimizing kind of total cash. And if you were to take retail cars today and go and clear them in the wholesale market that is now leading the retail market down, you would take kind of pretty large losses that would be certain. You would be able to then replace that with lower cost inventory that you could put out on your lot and if your goal was to earn the same profit as before, then you probably could lower prices quickly and sell more cars, but you would just be kind of getting more earnings to offset your previous losses.

所以我認為，我認為該框架更像是一個實時收益優化框架，而不是跨時間框架的總收益。而且我認為許多經銷商經常考慮優化總現金。如果你今天拿零售汽車去批發市場清理它們，現在導致零售市場走低，你會承受相當大的損失，這是肯定的。然後，您可以用成本較低的庫存來代替它，您可以將其放在您的地塊上，如果您的目標是獲得與以前相同的利潤，那麼您可能可以快速降低價格並銷售更多汽車，但您只會獲得更多的收入來抵消你之前的損失。

And so I think usually, what most retailers out there do and what we do is we try to kind of optimize for what we think is the value across cars and customers across time. And it's usually pretty expensive to take cars out of retail and go sell them wholesale kind of regardless of what the market is. There can be occasions where that can make sense. But generally speaking, as long as there's anything near healthy demand in your retail channel, you're usually better off selling those cars through retail when you kind of calculate some of the impacts across time.

所以我認為通常情況下，大多數零售商所做的以及我們所做的是我們嘗試優化我們認為跨時間跨汽車和客戶的價值。而且無論市場如何，將汽車從零售店中取出並批發出售它們通常都非常昂貴。在某些情況下，這可能是有意義的。但一般來說，只要您的零售渠道中有任何接近健康的需求，當您計算一段時間內的一些影響時，您通常最好通過零售銷售這些汽車。

Our next question will come from Naved Khan with Truist Securities.

我們的下一個問題將來自與 Truist Securities 的 Naved Khan。

This is Vincent for Naved. So regarding working capital, you've again lowered inventory closer to the $2 billion to $2.5 billion target range you mentioned previously. So just curious how much lower you expect that to go. And how is your progress in moving on a third-party conditioning impact to this (inaudible)

這是 Naved 的文森特。因此，關於營運資金，您再次將庫存降低到接近您之前提到的 20 億至 25 億美元的目標範圍。所以只是好奇你期望它會降低多少。以及您在推動第三方調節影響方面的進展如何（聽不清）

Sure. Yes. So I think we took a nice step-down in inventory in Q3, second consecutive quarter of moving it down toward more normalized levels. We do expect inventory to decline again in Q4 to get sort of inside that range that we laid out previously. And so we do think that's -- that also makes sense in light of the current depreciation environment and in light of our goals of getting inventory to a more normalized level relative to retail unit sales. So yes, we do expect to do that in Q4 and feel good about the path that we're on there.

當然。是的。所以我認為我們在第三季度很好地減少了庫存，連續第二個季度將庫存降低到更正常的水平。我們確實預計第四季度庫存將再次下降，以達到我們之前設定的範圍內。因此，我們確實認為，鑑於當前的折舊環境以及我們將庫存提高到相對於零售單位銷售的更正常水平的目標，這也是有道理的。所以是的，我們確實希望在第四季度做到這一點，並且對我們所走的道路感覺良好。

Okay. Great. And then can you provide any color on kind of your ability to reach the base year-end SG&A unit goal given a reduction in retail volumes?

好的。偉大的。然後，鑑於零售量的減少，您能否就您實現基本年終 SG&A 單位目標的能力提供任何顏色？

Do you mind restating the question? I'm not sure we followed. I apologize.

你介意重新提出這個問題嗎？我不確定我們是否跟上了。我道歉。

Yes. No worries. Just wondering if you can provide color on like your base year-end SG&A per unit goal given reduction in volumes, retail volumes.

是的。不用擔心。只是想知道考慮到銷量和零售量的減少，您是否可以像您的基本年終 SG&A 每單位目標一樣提供顏色。

Sure. Yes. So you're referencing the stretch goal for Q4?

當然。是的。所以你指的是第四季度的延伸目標？

Yes.

是的。

Sure. Yes. I think our goal is to continue to push down expenses as quickly as we possibly can. We try to give a framework for how quickly we think we can push those down. We were able to lower them kind of without accounting for the RIF. Last quarter, we were able to load them by about 12%. As we said, I think it obviously gets harder to lower expenses as your expense base drops, but we think there's still a lot of little hanging fruit and so we're going to try to continue to lower that.

當然。是的。我認為我們的目標是繼續盡可能快地降低開支。我們試圖給出一個框架，以說明我們認為我們可以多快將它們推倒。我們能夠在不考慮 RIF 的情況下降低它們。上個季度，我們能夠將它們加載大約 12%。正如我們所說，我認為隨著您的支出基數下降，降低支出顯然會變得更加困難，但我們認為仍有很多懸而未決的果實，因此我們將嘗試繼續降低這一點。

And then I think right now, inside of reasonable ranges, expenses and units are much more loosely tied together than they normally would be. And so I think those things are probably moving more independently than normal, and we'll just be seeking to push down expenses as quickly as we possibly can to try to get to breakeven EBITDA and then ultimately the positive cash flow, ASAP.

然後我認為現在，在合理的範圍內，費用和單位之間的聯繫比通常情況下要鬆散得多。所以我認為這些事情可能比正常情況更獨立，我們將盡可能快地降低開支，以達到盈虧平衡 EBITDA 並最終盡快實現正現金流。

Our next question will come from Nat Schindler with Bank of America.

我們的下一個問題將來自美國銀行的 Nat Schindler。

Yes. There's -- going back to an earlier comment about equity financing. Well, let's not talk about equity financing specifically and go over that again, but more how do you fix the debt financing that you have? What are your options right now? Because even getting the positive cash flow, even getting to your long-term targets -- sorry, not positive EBITDA, even getting to your long-term EBITDA target, you would have to sell a whole lot of cars just to cover your current interest expense. What can you do to fix that debt load?

是的。回到前面關於股權融資的評論。好吧，我們先不談股權融資，再談一遍，但更多的是你如何解決你擁有的債務融資？你現在有什麼選擇？因為即使獲得正現金流，甚至達到您的長期目標——抱歉，不是正的 EBITDA，即使達到您的長期 EBITDA 目標，您也必須出售大量汽車才能滿足您當前的興趣費用。你能做些什麼來解決債務負擔？

Sure. Let me start with this. I mean I think if we hit our long-term EBITDA targets even at today's units, we'd be in a great spot from a cash flow perspective. I think and would be able to comfortably cover our interest expense. So I think that I want to make sure that, that's at least clear. And I think that you look across time at other retailers that have been at similar scales to where we are today, who have been able to achieve sufficient kind of positive EBITDA to cover what our interest expense is today, so I think our goal is as stated, and I apologize for going through it over and over again, but I think in this environment, we've got to really focus on what's in our direct control. And the thing that is most directly in our control is expenses. And so we're going to keep marching that down as quickly as we possibly can. And then we're going to pay a lot of attention to how we originate the most profitable sales that we can to try to accelerate our path to breakeven EBITDA and beyond. And so that's the plan right there. That's just what we're going to be working on.

當然。讓我從這個開始。我的意思是我認為，如果我們即使在今天的單位中達到我們的長期 EBITDA 目標，從現金流的角度來看，我們也會處於一個很好的位置。我認為並且能夠輕鬆支付我們的利息費用。所以我想我想確保這一點，至少是清楚的。而且我認為您可以看看其他零售商，這些零售商的規模與我們今天的情況相似，他們能夠實現足夠的正 EBITDA 來支付我們今天的利息支出，所以我認為我們的目標是聲明，我為一遍又一遍地經歷而道歉，但我認為在這種環境下，我們必須真正專注於我們直接控制的事情。最直接由我們控制的是費用。因此，我們將盡可能快地繼續前進。然後我們將非常關注我們如何產生最有利可圖的銷售，以嘗試加速我們實現盈虧平衡 EBITDA 及更高的道路。這就是那裡的計劃。這正是我們要做的。

So wait, even at 400,000 annual units or, let's say, 100,000 in a quarter where you are right now, you had $150 million in interest income. At 13.5% EBITDA, you wouldn't cover that.

所以等一下，即使每年有 400,000 個單位，或者說，在你現在所在的一個季度裡有 100,000 個單位，你也有 1.5 億美元的利息收入。以 13.5% 的 EBITDA 計算，您將無法支付該費用。

I think you've -- just make sure you're multiplying by the kind of retail price, and I think you'll probably get there.

我認為你已經 - 只要確保你乘以零售價格，我認為你可能會到達那裡。

Okay. You'll barely get there. Yes. Sorry. But...

好的。你幾乎不會到達那裡。是的。對不起。但...

Yes, I think we'd get there with a little bit of cushion. But yes, but either way.

是的，我想我們會帶著一點緩衝到達那裡。但是，是的，但無論如何。

Okay. So is there anything that you have on the near term on the horizon that you can think of to do to finance that debt any other way, though, other than just driving that EBITDA?

好的。那麼，除了推動 EBITDA 之外，您在短期內有什麼可以考慮以其他方式為債務融資的方法嗎？

I think -- as we stated earlier, I think the #1 input to all this is expenses that drives into EBITDA. From there, we've got, to kind of use round numbers, about $4 billion of kind of total access to liquidity. Approximately half of that is immediately available. The other half is broken down to be about $1 billion of ADESA real estate and about $1 billion of other real estate. Between all that, that gives us a lot of access to liquidity. And so I think that's primarily how we're thinking about it at the moment, and we'll continue to march forward with our plan.

我認為 - 正如我們之前所說，我認為所有這些的第一輸入是驅動 EBITDA 的費用。從那裡，我們有，使用整數，大約 40 億美元的總流動性。其中大約一半是立即可用的。另一半被分解為約 10 億美元的 ADESA 房地產和約 10 億美元的其他房地產。在這一切之間，這讓我們有很多獲得流動性的機會。所以我認為這主要是我們目前考慮的方式，我們將繼續推進我們的計劃。

Our final question will come from Michael Montani with Evercore.

我們的最後一個問題將來自 Evercore 的 Michael Montani。

Just wanted to ask, first off, if I could. You had mentioned trying to pull back in certain markets to emphasize more profitable sales. But I also wanted to ask about some of the initiatives that you all have going on. I'm thinking of, for example, third-party listings. I had seen that you may be pulling back or pausing on that. So I just wanted to understand where that sits, the Hertz partnership. And then I had a separate follow-up.

只是想問一下，首先，如果我可以。您曾提到試圖撤出某些市場以強調更有利可圖的銷售。但我也想問一下你們正在進行的一些舉措。例如，我正在考慮第三方列表。我已經看到你可能會退縮或暫停。所以我只是想了解它的位置，即赫茲合作夥伴關係。然後我進行了單獨的跟進。

Sure. So I mean what I would say is I think when we think about -- I'm going to ask this generally and maybe not precisely related to some of the things that you brought for your question, but hopefully, it's useful. When we think about trying to aim for more profitable sales, what does that mean? There's certainly variability in the kind of gross profit associated with different types of sales. Obviously, sales where customers finance with us are more profitable than those where they don't. And those where they choose to buy a warranty are more profitable than those where they don't.

當然。所以我的意思是我想說的是，當我們考慮時，我會提出一般性的問題，也許與你提出的一些問題並不完全相關，但希望它是有用的。當我們考慮試圖以更高利潤的銷售為目標時，這意味著什麼？與不同類型的銷售相關的毛利潤肯定存在差異。顯然，客戶通過我們融資的銷售比沒有融資的銷售更有利可圖。他們選擇購買保修的那些人比他們不購買的人更有利可圖。

And then I think there's a number of other dynamics kind of across car type, et cetera. There's also kind of variation in the underlying costs of completing a sale. If it's a car that's nearby to an inspection center, it can be much, much lower. If it's a car that's maybe further away but where we're charging a shipping fee, it can be higher, but it can be offset by the benefit of that shipping fee. And so I think there can be variation in underlying cost of sales.

然後我認為還有許多其他類型的汽車類型的動態，等等。完成銷售的基本成本也存在某種差異。如果是在檢驗中心附近的汽車，它可能會低很多很多。如果它是一輛可能更遠但我們收取運費的汽車，它可能會更高，但它可以被運費的好處所抵消。所以我認為潛在的銷售成本可能會有所不同。

And then there can also be a variation in the cost to acquire different types of sales, whether it's sales different types of customers or different types of cars. That can vary. And some of those different channels can also attract customers with kind of variable levels of either gross profit or expected expense. And so I think across all those different areas, we're trying to just be very thoughtful right now and make sure that we're pulling levers that we think will drive the most profitable sales and drive the fewest less profitable sales. And I think that, that's taking many different forms.

然後，獲得不同類型的銷售的成本也可能有所不同，無論是銷售不同類型的客戶還是不同類型的汽車。這可能會有所不同。其中一些不同的渠道還可以吸引具有不同毛利或預期費用水平的客戶。因此，我認為在所有這些不同的領域，我們現在都在努力考慮周全，並確保我們正在拉動我們認為將推動利潤最高的銷售並推動利潤最低的銷售的槓桿。我認為，這採取了許多不同的形式。

And then you brought up Hertz. I would say that partnership continues to go very well. We're putting even more focus and attention on that right now as we think it's a big opportunity and there's alignment between the 2 groups. We're excited about the results there, for sure. I think that it's led to some other opportunities between us, especially as we've added ADESA to kind of -- to augment the overall capabilities that we have. So I think that continues to go really well. And I think you said you had a follow-up.

然後你提到了赫茲。我想說的是，夥伴關係繼續進行得很好。我們現在更加關注和關注這一點，因為我們認為這是一個巨大的機會，並且兩組之間存在一致性。當然，我們對那裡的結果感到興奮。我認為這為我們之間帶來了一些其他機會，尤其是當我們添加了 ADESA 以增強我們擁有的整體能力時。所以我認為這繼續進展順利。我想你說你有後續行動。

Yes. So the follow-up is just around CapEx. And I think in May, you all had outlined some different scenarios and what you felt was baseline kind of CapEx spend. But just wondering, volumes remain kind of challenged in terms of where we're at right now. Do you have further flexibility there? Can you just give us some sensitivity on kind of the CapEx outlay pace?

是的。因此，後續行動只是圍繞資本支出。我認為在 5 月，你們都已經概述了一些不同的場景，並且你們認為是基線類型的資本支出。但只是想知道，就我們目前所處的位置而言，數量仍然存在挑戰。你有更多的靈活性嗎？你能給我們一些關於資本支出支出速度的敏感性嗎？

Sure. Yes. And everything I'm about to say is also in the shareholder letter for future reference. But in May, we laid out a 2023 full year CapEx budget in the range of $100 million to $200 million, depending on the amount of elective capital expenditures we decide to undertake. I think from where we sit today, we expect to be in the lower half of that range.

當然。是的。而我要說的一切，也在股東信中，以備日後參考。但在 5 月，我們制定了 2023 年全年資本支出預算，範圍在 1 億至 2 億美元之間，具體取決於我們決定承擔的選擇性資本支出金額。我認為從我們今天所處的位置來看，我們預計會處於該範圍的下半部分。

This concludes our question-and-answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to management for any closing remarks.

我們的問答環節到此結束。我想把會議交還給管理層，以便發表任何結束語。

All right. Well, thanks, everyone, for joining the call. And to everyone inside Carvana, thank you guys again for all the work that you're putting in. I do think that we are getting more done than we ever have. I know it's against a tough backdrop. I think you've heard it over and over again, but I hope we're all prepared for the environment to continue to be tough. And I think we still have a lot of work left to do, but I do think we're all doing a great job, and we could not thank you guys more for it. So thanks for everything you guys do. And thanks again to everyone on the call. We'll talk to you soon.

好的。好吧，謝謝大家加入電話會議。對於 Carvana 內部的每個人，再次感謝你們所做的所有工作。我確實認為我們做得比以往任何時候都多。我知道這是在一個艱難的背景下。我想你已經一遍又一遍地聽到它，但我希望我們都為環境繼續艱難做好準備。我認為我們還有很多工作要做，但我確實認為我們都做得很好，我們不能再感謝你們了。所以感謝你們所做的一切。再次感謝電話中的每一個人。我們很快就會和你談談。

The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.

會議現已結束。感謝您參加今天的演講。您現在可以斷開連接。