Carvana Co (CVNA) 2023 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Hello, and welcome to the Carvana First Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) Please note, this event is being recorded.

您好，歡迎來到 Carvana 2023 年第一季度收益電話會議。 （操作員說明）請注意，正在記錄此事件。

I would now like to turn the conference over to Meg Kehan, Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

我現在想把會議轉交給投資者關係部的 Meg Kehan。請繼續。

Thank you, MJ. Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen, and thank you for joining us on Carvana's First Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call. Please note that this call will be simultaneously webcast on the Investor Relations section of the company's corporate website at investors.carvana.com. The first quarter shareholder letter is also posted to the IR website. Additionally, we posted a set of supplemental financial tables for Q1, which can be found on the Events & Presentations page of our IR website.

謝謝你，喬丹。女士們先生們，下午好，感謝您加入我們參加 Carvana 2023 年第一季度收益電話會議。請注意，此次電話會議將同時在公司網站 investors.carvana.com 的投資者關係部分進行網絡直播。第一季度的股東信函也發佈在 IR 網站上。此外，我們還發布了一組第一季度的補充財務表，可以在我們 IR 網站的“活動和演示”頁面上找到。

Joining me on the call today are Ernie Garcia, Chief Executive Officer; and Mark Jenkins, Chief Financial Officer.

今天和我一起參加電話會議的是首席執行官 Ernie Garcia；和首席財務官 Mark Jenkins。

Before we start, I would like to remind you that the following discussion contains forward-looking statements within the meaning of the federal securities laws, including, but not limited to, Carvana's market opportunities and future financial results that involve risks and uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially from those disclosed here. A detailed discussion of the material factors that cause actual results to differ from forward-looking statements can be found in the Risk Factors section of Carvana's most recent Form 10-K. The forward-looking statements and risks in this conference call are based on current expectations as of today, and Carvana assumes no obligation to update or revise them, whether as a result of new developments or otherwise.

在我們開始之前，我想提醒您，以下討論包含聯邦證券法含義內的前瞻性陳述，包括但不限於 Carvana 的市場機會和未來財務結果，這些風險和不確定性可能會導致實際結果與此處披露的結果大不相同。有關導致實際結果與前瞻性陳述不同的重大因素的詳細討論，請參閱 Carvana 最新的 10-K 表格的風險因素部分。本次電話會議中的前瞻性陳述和風險基於截至今天的當前預期，Carvana 不承擔更新或修改它們的義務，無論是由於新的發展還是其他原因。

Our commentary today will include non-GAAP financial metrics. Unless otherwise specified, all references to GPU and SG&A will be to the non-GAAP metrics, and all references to EBITDA will be to adjusted EBITDA. Reconciliations between GAAP and non-GAAP metrics for all reported results can be found in our shareholder letter issued today, a copy of which can be found on our IR website.

我們今天的評論將包括非 GAAP 財務指標。除非另有說明，否則所有對 GPU 和 SG&A 的引用均指非 GAAP 指標，所有對 EBITDA 的引用均指調整後的 EBITDA。所有報告結果的 GAAP 和非 GAAP 指標之間的調節可以在我們今天發布的股東信中找到，其副本可以在我們的 IR 網站上找到。

And now with that said, I'd like to turn the call over to Ernie Garcia. Ernie?

現在話雖如此，我想把電話轉給厄尼加西亞。厄尼？

Thanks, Meg, and thanks, everyone, for joining the call. The first quarter was a quarter of significant progress for Carvana. A year ago, the automotive industry as well as the macroeconomic and market environment changed pretty dramatically, resulting in us significantly shifting our near-term priorities away from growth and toward profitability. This shift has impacted everything we do. It's impacted what we are focused on, it has impacted how much we are focused on and it has impacted the way we are managing the business day to day. And all these adjustments take time.

謝謝梅格，也謝謝大家加入電話會議。第一季度是 Carvana 取得重大進展的一個季度。一年前，汽車行業以及宏觀經濟和市場環境發生了巨大變化，導致我們將近期重點從增長轉向盈利。這種轉變影響了我們所做的一切。它影響了我們關注的重點，影響了我們關注的程度，也影響了我們日常管理業務的方式。所有這些調整都需要時間。

First, we made a narrow set of operating goals inside the company that we knew would be necessary to hit our financial targets. Second, we tightened the connections between our technology and operating teams through shared goals, shared meetings and even shared office spaces. These changes first have to show up in the projects the teams are undertaking. They move to operating metrics, and finally, they show up in financial results. And that is exactly how the progress has been unfolding.

首先，我們在公司內部製定了一套狹窄的運營目標，我們知道這些目標對於實現我們的財務目標是必要的。其次，我們通過共同的目標、共享的會議甚至共享的辦公空間加強了我們的技術和運營團隊之間的聯繫。這些變化首先必須體現在團隊正在進行的項目中。他們轉向運營指標，最後，他們出現在財務結果中。這正是進展的展開方式。

In the second quarter of 2022, we outlined our plan and discussed how we are organizing internally to tackle our goals. In the third quarter, we shared a number of operating metrics that we're beginning to rapidly move in the right direction. In the fourth quarter, we began to see some of the earliest signs of meaningful financial progress.

在 2022 年第二季度，我們概述了我們的計劃並討論了我們如何在內部組織以實現我們的目標。在第三季度，我們分享了一些我們開始快速朝著正確方向發展的運營指標。在第四季度，我們開始看到一些有意義的財務進展的最早跡象。

And now in the first quarter of 2023, the direction speed of the financial progress is undeniable. We reduced SG&A by over $100 million quarter-over-quarter and completed our year-long effort to cut $1 billion of annualized costs out of the business. In addition, in the first quarter, we returned to our historical GPU and adjusted EBITDA margin trend lines and reported company best results for the first quarter in both metrics. We still have a long way to go to achieve our broader goals, but we are on the right path, and we are moving quickly.

而現在2023年第一季度，財務進度的方向速度是不可否認的。我們比上一季度減少了超過 1 億美元的 SG&A，並完成了我們長達一年的努力，將業務的年度成本削減了 10 億美元。此外，在第一季度，我們回到了歷史 GPU 並調整了 EBITDA 利潤率趨勢線，並報告了第一季度公司在這兩個指標中的最佳業績。要實現更廣泛的目標，我們還有很長的路要走，但我們走在正確的道路上，而且我們正在迅速行動。

As we've discussed before, there are 3 steps in our plan to achieve positive cash flow and get Carvana back on track to becoming the largest and most profitable automotive retailer: number one, drive the business to positive adjusted EBITDA; number two, drive the business to significantly positive unit economics; number three, after achieving objectives number 1 and 2, return to growth.

正如我們之前所討論的，我們的計劃有 3 個步驟來實現正現金流並讓 Carvana 重回正軌，成為最大和最賺錢的汽車零售商：第一，推動業務調整後 EBITDA 為正；第二，推動企業顯著提高單位經濟效益；第三，在實現目標 1 和 2 後，恢復增長。

As outlined in the letter, we expect to complete the first step in this plan in the second quarter. The completion of this step is a milestone, not a change of direction. We'll be using the same processes and focus we have benefited from over the last year to continue to see the plan through. We remain firmly on the path to fulfilling our mission of changing the way people buy cars and to becoming the largest and most profitable automotive retailer. The march continues.

如信中所述，我們預計將在第二季度完成該計劃的第一步。這一步的完成是一個里程碑，而不是方向的改變。我們將使用我們在去年受益的相同流程和重點來繼續完成該計劃。我們堅定地走在實現改變人們購買汽車方式的使命和成為最大、最賺錢的汽車零售商的道路上。遊行還在繼續。

Mark?

標記？

Thank you, Ernie, and thank you all for joining us today. Our first quarter results demonstrated significant progress on our path to profitability. We exceeded our goal of driving $100 million of non-GAAP SG&A reductions 1 quarter early, and we surpassed our previously communicated goal of greater than 4,000 GPU.

謝謝你，厄尼，感謝大家今天加入我們。我們第一季度的業績表明我們在盈利之路上取得了重大進展。我們提前 1 個季度超額完成了 1 億美元的非 GAAP SG&A 削減目標，並且超額完成了我們之前傳達的超過 4,000 個 GPU 的目標。

In the first quarter, retail units sold totaled 79,240, a decrease of 25% year-over-year and 9% sequentially. Our decline in retail units sold, which we expected, was driven by 4 primary factors: one, reduced inventory size; two, reduced advertising; three, increased benchmark interest rates and credit spreads; and four, a continued focus on executing our profitability initiatives. Total revenue was $2.6 billion, a decrease of 25% year-over-year and 8% sequentially. Due to the dynamic nature of the current environment, we will focus our remaining remarks on sequential changes.

第一季度，零售單位總銷量為 79,240 套，同比下降 25%，環比下降 9%。正如我們預期的那樣，我們的零售單位銷量下降是由 4 個主要因素驅動的：一是庫存規模減少；二、減少廣告；三、提高基準利率和信用利差；第四，繼續專注於執行我們的盈利計劃。總收入為 26 億美元，同比下降 25%，環比下降 8%。由於當前環境的動態特性，我們將把剩下的評論集中在順序變化上。

As we've previously discussed, our long-term financial goal is to generate significant GAAP net income and free cash flow. In service of that goal, in the near term, our management team is focused on driving progress on a set of key non-GAAP financial metrics that are inputs into this long-term goal, including non-GAAP gross profit, non-GAAP SG&A expense and adjusted EBITDA.

正如我們之前所討論的，我們的長期財務目標是產生可觀的 GAAP 淨收入和自由現金流。為了實現這一目標，在短期內，我們的管理團隊專注於推動一系列關鍵的非 GAAP 財務指標取得進展，這些指標是這一長期目標的輸入，包括非 GAAP 毛利、非 GAAP SG&A費用和調整後的 EBITDA。

In the first quarter, non-GAAP total GPU was $4,796, a sequential increase of $2,129 driven by increases across all components. Non-GAAP retail GPU was $1,591 versus $632 in Q4. Retail GPU included a $593 benefit due to an adjustment to our retail inventory allowance. In addition, sequential changes in retail GPU were primarily driven by higher average days to sale, partially offset by wider spreads between wholesale and retail market prices, higher shipping revenue and lower reconditioning and inbound transport costs.

第一季度，非 GAAP 總 GPU 為 4,796 美元，在所有組件增長的推動下環比增長 2,129 美元。非 GAAP 零售 GPU 為 1,591 美元，而第四季度為 632 美元。由於調整了我們的零售庫存津貼，零售 GPU 包括 593 美元的收益。此外，零售 GPU 的連續變化主要是由於平均銷售天數增加，部分被批發和零售市場價格之間的價差擴大、運輸收入增加以及翻新和入境運輸成本降低所抵消。

Notably, we achieved our Q1 retail GPU despite selling vehicles that were, on average, more than 120 days old. Vehicles sold in Q1 that were less than 90 days old had retail GPU over $2,000, illustrating the benefit of normalizing inventory size and turning vehicles more quickly.

值得注意的是，儘管銷售的車輛平均使用時間超過 120 天，但我們實現了第一季度零售 GPU。第一季度售出不到 90 天的車輛的零售 GPU 超過 2,000 美元，這說明了使庫存規模正常化和更快地周轉車輛的好處。

Non-GAAP wholesale GPU was $1,236 versus $551 in Q4. Wholesale GPU included a $50 benefit due to an adjustment to our wholesale inventory allowance. In addition, we estimate that wholesale GPU benefited by $150 due to abnormal wholesale market appreciation in the quarter. Beyond those factors, sequential changes in wholesale GPU were primarily driven by higher wholesale marketplace volume.

非 GAAP 批發 GPU 為 1,236 美元，而第四季度為 551 美元。由於調整了我們的批發庫存津貼，批發 GPU 包括 50 美元的優惠。此外，我們估計由於本季度批發市場異常升值，批發 GPU 受益 150 美元。除了這些因素之外，批發 GPU 的連續變化主要是由更高的批發市場量推動的。

Non-GAAP other GPU was $1,969 versus $1,483 in Q4. Sequential improvement in other GPU was primarily driven by a greater volume of loans sold in the quarter compared to Q4. In Q1, we sold slightly less than the normalized volume of loans as a result of uncertainty in the securitization market in March. The GPU impact of this less-than-normalized sales volume was largely offset by higher interest income and other improvements, leading to an approximately normalized other GPU in Q1.

非 GAAP 其他 GPU 為 1,969 美元，而第四季度為 1,483 美元。其他 GPU 的連續改善主要是由於與第四季度相比，本季度售出的貸款數量增加。由於 3 月份證券化市場的不確定性，我們在第一季度出售的貸款量略低於正常水平。這種低於正常化的銷量對 GPU 的影響在很大程度上被更高的利息收入和其他改善所抵消，導致第一季度其他 GPU 大致正常化。

In Q1, we made significant progress reducing SG&A expenses for the third consecutive quarter, reducing non-GAAP SG&A expense by $119 million sequentially, following a $60 million sequential reduction in Q4. These expense reductions were broad-based, including advertising, compensation and benefits, logistics and other SG&A. Non-GAAP SG&A expense per retail unit sold decreased by more than $900 sequentially in Q1, demonstrating significant operating leverage.

在第一季度，我們連續第三個季度在減少 SG&A 費用方面取得了重大進展，在第四季度連續減少 6000 萬美元之後，將非 GAAP SG&A 費用連續減少了 1.19 億美元。這些開支削減範圍廣泛，包括廣告、薪酬和福利、物流和其他 SG&A。非 GAAP SG&A 費用每售出零售單位在第一季度連續下降超過 900 美元，顯示出顯著的運營槓桿。

Adjusted EBITDA loss was $24 million in Q1 or 0.9% of revenue. We expect to achieve positive adjusted EBITDA in Q2.

第一季度調整後的 EBITDA 虧損為 2400 萬美元，佔收入的 0.9%。我們預計在第二季度實現正調整後的 EBITDA。

After a strong quarter in Q1, we expect to drive greater than $5,000 of non-GAAP total GPU in Q2 as long as the macroeconomic and industry environment remains similar to Q1. Our strong GPU performance is powered by 3 fundamental drivers.

在第一季度表現強勁之後，只要宏觀經濟和行業環境與第一季度保持相似，我們預計第二季度的非 GAAP 總 GPU 將超過 5,000 美元。我們強大的 GPU 性能由 3 個基本驅動程序提供支持。

Driver number one, a more robust retail GPU model. We expect greater than $2,000 of non-GAAP retail GPU in Q2 driven primarily by our efforts to normalize inventory size, accelerate turn times and generate additional revenue from additional services. In FY '21, we generated approximately $1,700 of non-GAAP retail GPU.

驅動程序一號，更強大的零售 GPU 模型。我們預計第二季度非 GAAP 零售 GPU 將超過 2,000 美元，這主要是由於我們努力使庫存規模正常化、加快周轉時間並從其他服務中產生額外收入。在 21 財年，我們產生了大約 1,700 美元的非 GAAP 零售 GPU。

Since then, we've made fundamental improvements that we believe will drive higher retail GPU on a sustainable basis. First, we have continued to improve our customer vehicle sourcing with a higher share of retail units sourced from customers in Q1 2023 than in FY 2021. Second, we are generating more revenue from the unique services we offer our customers, including nationwide shipping and home delivery. Third, over time, we expect per unit reconditioning and inbound transport costs, excluding depreciation and amortization, to be below FY 2021 due to our continued focus on operating efficiency.

從那時起，我們進行了根本性的改進，我們相信這些改進將在可持續的基礎上推動更高的零售 GPU。首先，與 2021 財年相比，2023 年第一季度從客戶處採購的零售單位比例更高，我們繼續改善客戶車輛採購。其次，我們從為客戶提供的獨特服務中獲得更多收入，包括全國航運和家庭送貨。第三，隨著時間的推移，由於我們持續關注運營效率，我們預計不計折舊和攤銷的單位整修和入境運輸成本將低於 2021 財年。

Moving on to driver number two, expanded wholesale platform. We expect greater than $1,000 of non-GAAP wholesale GPU in Q2 split between Carvana's first-party wholesale vehicle sales and ADESA's third-party wholesale marketplace. In FY '21, we generated approximately $450 of non-GAAP wholesale GPU. Since then, we've made several fundamental improvements that we believe will drive higher wholesale GPU on a sustainable basis.

轉向第二個驅動程序，擴展批發平台。我們預計第二季度 Carvana 的第一方批發汽車銷售和 ADESA 的第三方批發市場之間的非 GAAP 批發 GPU 將超過 1,000 美元。在 21 財年，我們產生了大約 450 美元的非 GAAP 批發 GPU。從那時起，我們進行了幾項根本性的改進，我們相信這些改進將在可持續的基礎上推動更高的批發 GPU。

First, in May 2022, we acquired ADESA, the second largest U.S. wholesale used vehicle auction marketplace. ADESA's wholesale marketplace generated significant gross profit in Q1 and will be a long-term addition to our total gross profit. Second, our acquisition of ADESA has improved the efficiency of our offering of buying cars from customers and selling them in the wholesale market. For example, since Q1 2022, we have reduced inbound transport costs on wholesale vehicles by approximately $200 per wholesale unit sold or approximately $90 per retail unit sold, supported by ADESA locations. Third, we continue to invest in our wholesale platform through product and process improvements with a continued goal of growing these businesses over time.

首先，在 2022 年 5 月，我們收購了美國第二大二手車批發拍賣市場 ADESA。 ADESA 的批發市場在第一季度產生了可觀的毛利，並將成為我們總毛利的長期補充。其次，我們對 ADESA 的收購提高了我們從客戶那裡購買汽車並在批發市場銷售汽車的效率。例如，自 2022 年第一季度以來，在 ADESA 地點的支持下，我們已將批發車輛的入站運輸成本降低了每售出批發單位約 200 美元或每售出零售單位約 90 美元。第三，我們繼續通過產品和流程改進來投資我們的批發平台，目標是隨著時間的推移發展這些業務。

Moving on to driver number three, strong finance and ancillary product execution. We expect greater than $2,000 non-GAAP other GPU in Q2, primarily driven by a normalization of loan sale volume. Since the beginning of Q2, we have sold or securitized approximately $1.3 billion of loan principal, an increase compared to Q1.

繼續第三個驅動因素，強大的財務和輔助產品執行。我們預計第二季度非 GAAP 其他 GPU 將超過 2,000 美元，這主要是受貸款銷售量正常化的推動。自第二季度初以來，我們已出售或證券化了約 13 億美元的貸款本金，與第一季度相比有所增加。

In FY '21, we generated approximately $2,450 of non-GAAP other GPU. While we have not yet regained this level, in the medium term, we see a significant opportunity to increase other GPU by improving our cost of funds spread relative to mature securitization market participants and by continuing to expand our ancillary product platform.

在 21 財年，我們產生了大約 2,450 美元的非 GAAP 其他 GPU。雖然我們還沒有恢復到這個水平，但從中期來看，我們看到了一個重要的機會，可以通過改善我們相對於成熟證券化市場參與者的資金成本利差以及繼續擴大我們的輔助產品平台來增加其他 GPU。

To summarize, our first quarter results and second quarter outlook reflect the return to our multiyear track record of driving GPU improvements. We believe the gains we are demonstrating in 2023 are sustainable and reflect the significant fundamental improvements we have made in the last 12 months. We also see further opportunities for more improvements in GPU in the future.

總而言之，我們第一季度的業績和第二季度的展望反映了我們多年來推動 GPU 改進的記錄的回歸。我們相信，我們在 2023 年展示的成果是可持續的，反映了我們在過去 12 個月中取得的重大根本性改進。我們還看到了未來 GPU 進一步改進的機會。

Moving on to our second quarter outlook. While the macroeconomic and industry environment continues to be uncertain, looking toward Q2 '23 more broadly, we expect the following as long as the environment remains stable. On retail units, we currently expect a sequential reduction in retail units sold in Q2 compared to Q1 as we continue to normalize our inventory size, optimize marketing spend and make progress on our profitability initiatives. On SG&A, we expect similar non-GAAP SG&A expense in Q2 compared to Q1. We continue to see significant opportunities to further reduce non-GAAP SG&A expenses over time. Finally, we expect to generate positive adjusted EBITDA in Q2, achieving the first step in our 3-step plan to generate positive free cash flow.

繼續我們的第二季度展望。雖然宏觀經濟和行業環境仍然不確定，但更廣泛地展望 23 年第二季度，只要環境保持穩定，我們預計會出現以下情況。在零售單位方面，我們目前預計與第一季度相比，第二季度銷售的零售單位將連續減少，因為我們將繼續規範我們的庫存規模，優化營銷支出並在我們的盈利計劃方面取得進展。在 SG&A 方面，我們預計第二季度的非 GAAP SG&A 費用與第一季度類似。隨著時間的推移，我們繼續看到進一步減少非 GAAP SG&A 費用的重要機會。最後，我們預計在第二季度產生正的調整後 EBITDA，實現我們產生正自由現金流的三步計劃的第一步。

On March 31, we had approximately $3.5 billion in total liquidity resources, including $1.5 billion in cash and revolving availability and $2 billion in unpledged real estate and other assets, including more than $1 billion of real estate acquired with ADESA. Our strong liquidity position, significant production capacity runway and our clear and focused operating plan positions us well on our path to achieve our goal of driving positive free cash flow and becoming the largest and most profitable auto retailer in the future.

3 月 31 日，我們擁有大約 35 億美元的總流動性資源，包括 15 億美元的現金和循環可用性以及 20 億美元的未抵押房地產和其他資產，包括從 ADESA 收購的超過 10 億美元的房地產。我們強大的流動性狀況、重要的產能跑道以及清晰而專注的運營計劃使我們能夠很好地實現推動積極的自由現金流並成為未來最大和最賺錢的汽車零售商的目標。

Thank you for your attention. We'll now take questions.

感謝您的關注。我們現在開始提問。

(Operator Instructions) Today's first question comes from Sharon Zackfia with William Blair.

（操作員說明）今天的第一個問題來自 Sharon Zackfia 和 William Blair。

I guess 2 maybe pretty quick questions. It sounded as if from the press release, you might have made really significant progress on the kind of percent of inventory that's under 90 days. So I was hoping you can maybe talk to us about what percent of the inventory today is under 90 days versus what you had in the first quarter. And then secondarily, ad spend was really low. I'm wondering if that's a low-water mark for the year, if we should expect that to start to go higher.

我猜 2 個問題可能很快。從新聞稿中聽起來，您可能已經在 90 天以下的庫存百分比方面取得了真正重大的進展。所以我希望你能和我們談談今天 90 天以下的庫存與第一季度的庫存相比有多少。其次，廣告支出真的很低。我想知道這是否是今年的低水位線，我們是否應該期望它開始走高。

Thanks for the question. So I think on inventory, we've definitely made a lot of progress. We rapidly moved through a pretty significant portion of our aged inventory in Q1. And so we started with a much larger inventory than we sized to sales and we made a lot of progress throughout the quarter. Our inventory was down year-over-year about 55% and was down 20% in just Q1 alone.

謝謝你的問題。所以我認為在庫存方面，我們確實取得了很大進展。我們在第一季度迅速處理了相當大一部分的陳舊庫存。因此，我們開始時的庫存比我們的銷售規模大得多，並且我們在整個季度取得了很大進展。我們的庫存同比下降了約 55%，僅在第一季度就下降了 20%。

I think a useful metric for thinking about our inventory size and what that means for profitability is just thinking about how large our inventory is compared to the cars that we're selling at any given day. And if you kind of do that simple math and take inventory size divided by daily sales, in the quarter, we had about 65 days of implied turn time. That contrasts with the actual turn time of 120 days that Mark talked about in his prepared remarks. That's obviously a really big difference. And that leads to a pretty significant impact to retail GPU.

我認為考慮我們的庫存規模以及這對盈利能力意味著什麼的一個有用指標就是考慮我們的庫存與我們在任何一天銷售的汽車相比有多大。如果你做一些簡單的數學運算，將庫存量除以每日銷售額，那麼在本季度，我們有大約 65 天的隱含周轉時間。這與馬克在準備好的發言中談到的 120 天的實際周轉時間形成鮮明對比。這顯然是一個非常大的區別。這對零售 GPU 產生了相當大的影響。

In the letter, we provided a number where, for the cars that were less than 90 days aged, which for that subset of cars, the average turn time is approximately 65 days, so it's a useful number compared to our implied turn time, we had retail GPU of over $2,000. And so I think we're heading into Q2 in a much better spot from an inventory perspective. I think that's been a year-long effort to kind of get sales to catch up to our relative size and inventory. And I think we're really pleased with the progress. We still have probably 1.5 quarters to go, maybe 2 quarters to go, to get that all the way into alignment. But the size of the inventory relative to sales is now in alignment. So I think we're excited about that.

在信中，我們提供了一個數字，對於車齡少於 90 天的汽車，對於這部分汽車，平均周轉時間約為 65 天，因此與我們隱含的周轉時間相比，這是一個有用的數字，我們零售 GPU 超過 2,000 美元。因此，我認為從庫存的角度來看，我們將在一個更好的位置進入第二季度。我認為這是一項長達一年的努力，目的是讓銷售額趕上我們的相對規模和庫存。我認為我們對取得的進展感到非常滿意。我們可能還有 1.5 個季度的時間，也許還有 2 個季度的時間，才能使它一直保持一致。但現在庫存規模與銷售額的比值是一致的。所以我認為我們對此感到興奮。

On ad spend, that's another area where there has been a tremendous amount of pressure on units in the business. We're down approximately 64% year-over-year in ad spend. Quarter-over-quarter, we were down approximately 35%. So that was a big move as well. I think what we found is, in this environment, cars are expensive, and consumers are a little bit less responsive to advertising. And so we've been retesting all of our various advertising channels.

在廣告支出方面，這是另一個對業務部門造成巨大壓力的領域。我們的廣告支出同比下降了約 64%。與上一季度相比，我們下降了約 35%。所以這也是一個重大舉措。我認為我們發現，在這種環境下，汽車價格昂貴，消費者對廣告的反應稍差。因此，我們一直在重新測試我們所有的各種廣告渠道。

And I think the optimal that we are finding today are different from the optimal that we found in a more normalized environment, and that's led us to pull back pretty dramatically on marketing. That's exciting because I think we were able to show a customer acquisition cost of approximately $700 in the quarter, which is the lowest we've ever shown as a company by a pretty long way. And I think if you look in deeper, we had our oldest cohort, we were in the low $300s. So I think there's just a lot of progress that we're seeing there, and I think we're learning a lot about what the business model is capable of achieving.

而且我認為我們今天找到的最佳方案不同於我們在更規範化的環境中找到的最佳方案，這導致我們大幅縮減營銷。這很令人興奮，因為我認為我們能夠在本季度展示大約 700 美元的客戶獲取成本，這是我們作為一家公司在很長一段時間內展示的最低成本。而且我認為，如果你更深入地觀察，我們有最老的隊列，我們的價格在 300 美元左右。所以我認為我們在那裡看到了很多進步，而且我認為我們正在學習很多關於商業模式能夠實現的目標。

I think we continue to learn as we shrink our inventory and reduce our marketing spend, and I think we'll continue to make adjustments over the next couple of quarters as we learn more. I think it is more likely than not there will not be large reductions in marketing spend from here. I think it's also unlikely that it will shoot back up super dramatically, but we will continue to test it and evaluate what we learn from those tests, and then we'll go from there.

我認為我們在縮減庫存和減少營銷支出時會繼續學習，而且我認為隨著我們了解更多，我們將在接下來的幾個季度繼續進行調整。我認為從這裡開始營銷支出很可能不會大幅減少。我認為它也不太可能大幅反彈，但我們將繼續測試它並評估我們從這些測試中學到的東西，然後我們將從那裡開始。

The next question is from Ron Josey with Citi.

下一個問題來自花旗銀行的 Ron Josey。

I want to maybe do a quick follow-up, Mark and Ernie, on just the inventory question from Sharon. But specifically, Mark, you mentioned an increase in vehicle sourcing from customers. And I think last quarter, we talked about perhaps, or maybe 2 quarters ago, overpaying for that. So talk to us a little bit more just about the sourcing of vehicles from customers. We are seeing more ads actually on social sites for Carvana on that. And so I wanted to hear just the sourcing of vehicles as overall inventory, call it, normalizes.

Mark 和 Ernie，我想快速跟進一下 Sharon 提出的庫存問題。但具體來說，馬克，你提到了從客戶那裡採購車輛的增加。而且我認為上個季度，我們可能或可能在 2 個季度前討論過為此多付錢。因此，與我們多談談從客戶那裡採購車輛的問題。實際上，我們在 Carvana 的社交網站上看到了更多廣告。所以我只想听聽車輛的採購作為整體庫存，稱之為正常化。

Sure. Yes, happy to answer that. So yes, the comparison that we talked about in prepared remarks was Q1 2023 compared to 2021. So we certainly have continued to make progress on sourcing cars directly from customers over that time period. I think we feel great about that. We've talked about it before, but sourcing cars from customers is a great source of inventory because it's a great selection of cars, very broad array of different makes, models, years, mileages. And then also, those cars tend to be more profitable than cars that you acquire at auction.

當然。是的，很高興回答這個問題。所以是的，我們在準備好的評論中談到的比較是 2023 年第一季度與 2021 年的比較。因此，在這段時間裡，我們在直接從客戶那裡採購汽車方面當然繼續取得進展。我認為我們對此感覺很好。我們之前已經討論過，但是從客戶那裡採購汽車是一個很好的庫存來源，因為它是一個很好的汽車選擇，非常廣泛的不同品牌、型號、年份、里程。而且，這些汽車往往比您在拍賣會上獲得的汽車更有利可圖。

So I think that's an area of the business where we've had great success over the years. I think we feel like we've got access to a lot of cars, and we have a lot of customers coming to the site appraising vehicles with us. And so yes, I think that's obviously been a success story in the business over the last couple of years, and we're looking to continue that success as we move forward.

所以我認為這是我們多年來取得巨大成功的業務領域。我認為我們覺得我們可以接觸到很多汽車，而且我們有很多客戶來到現場與我們一起評估車輛。所以是的，我認為這顯然是過去幾年業務中的一個成功故事，我們希望在前進的過程中繼續取得成功。

The next question comes from Adam Jonas with Morgan Stanley.

下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的亞當喬納斯。

So the company is getting more profitable the smaller it gets. At some point, this will need to change. I was going to ask is 80,000 units a quarter the right size for the company? You're telling us it's going to continue to get a little smaller, I would imagine, with the lower levels of merchandising and then the lower ad spend, too, remaining there. So I guess I'm wondering, are we there yet? What is the right size for the company? And then I have a follow-up.

因此，公司規模越小，利潤就越高。在某些時候，這將需要改變。我想問的是，每季度 80,000 個單位對公司來說是否合適？你告訴我們它會繼續變得更小，我想，隨著較低水平的商品銷售和較低的廣告支出，也將保持在那裡。所以我想我想知道，我們到了嗎？公司的合適規模是多少？然後我有一個後續行動。

Sure. So I mean to jump to the end, I think the right size for the company is much, much larger eventually. And I think the path there through profitability has just included some of these moves that we've made to shrink inventory and shrink marketing and get back in balance. I think where we found ourselves after 2021 was expecting another similar year and just being pretty dramatically out of balance with where sales actually were. And I think as we were growing from when we launched in 2013 all the way through 2021, we benefited a lot from the positive feedback in the business. As we got bigger, we got better. As we grew our inventory, conversion rates went up. As we spent more on marketing, it was easier to open new markets.

當然。所以我的意思是跳到最後，我認為公司的合適規模最終要大得多。而且我認為通過盈利的途徑剛剛包括我們為縮減庫存和縮減營銷並恢復平衡而採取的一些舉措。我認為我們在 2021 年之後發現自己期待的是另一個類似的年份，只是與實際銷售額非常不平衡。而且我認為，隨著我們從 2013 年推出到 2021 年的發展，我們從業務的積極反饋中受益匪淺。隨著我們變得更大，我們變得更好。隨著我們增加庫存，轉化率上升。隨著我們在營銷上投入更多，打開新市場變得更加容易。

And I think when we kind of found ourselves out of balance and we needed to rebalance the business, we knew that we were going to face the other side of that feedback. We knew that as we shrunk, we'd see conversion rates go down. We knew that was going to be a difficult transition. But in light of the environment, we also thought it was the fastest path to meaningful positive cash flow. And so we took that path, and I think we remain on it. We believe that we are probably pretty close to where sales will bottom out. I think we'll learn more on that over the coming quarters.

而且我認為，當我們發現自己有點失衡並且需要重新平衡業務時，我們知道我們將要面對反饋的另一面。我們知道，隨著我們縮小規模，我們會看到轉化率下降。我們知道這將是一個艱難的過渡。但鑑於環境，我們也認為這是實現有意義的正現金流的最快途徑。所以我們走上了這條路，我認為我們會繼續走下去。我們相信我們可能非常接近銷售觸底的位置。我認為我們將在未來幾個季度了解更多相關信息。

We've obviously made dramatic moves. I gave the numbers to Sharon a moment ago about how quickly we've lowered advertising inventory just in the last quarter. And so I think some of those things can have some lag effects that will show up over the next couple of quarters. So I don't want to act overconfident that we know exactly what will happen there. But I think the major headwinds that have faced the business over the year are largely subsiding.

我們顯然已經採取了戲劇性的舉措。剛才我向莎倫提供了關於我們在上個季度降低廣告庫存的速度有多快的數字。因此，我認為其中一些事情可能會產生一些滯後效應，這些效應將在接下來的幾個季度出現。所以我不想對我們確切知道那裡會發生什麼表現得過分自信。但我認為，過去一年企業面臨的主要阻力正在消退。

There's clearly been some industry and macroeconomic headwinds in the form of cost. There's been macroeconomic headwinds in the form of interest rates. And then there's been a lot of Carvana and post headwinds in the form of inventory reduction and marketing reduction and focusing on profitability and pulling away from sales that were less profitable and implementing different product changes that we think make the business more efficient. And so I think that's undoubtedly been a difficult transition.

顯然存在一些以成本形式出現的行業和宏觀經濟逆風。利率形式存在宏觀經濟逆風。然後有很多 Carvana 和後期逆風，以庫存減少和營銷減少的形式出現，關注盈利能力，擺脫利潤較低的銷售，並實施我們認為可以提高業務效率的不同產品變化。所以我認為這無疑是一個艱難的過渡。

It's hard to know exactly what the impact of all of those things are on volume. But doing the best job that we can and trying to control for all those, we do believe that the business is performing better than we might have imagined once we've made those moves. We have estimates for the elasticity of sales to inventory size and the marketing dollars and to many of our different product changes. And I think based on what we're seeing, we're actually pretty happy with where volumes are.

很難確切知道所有這些因素對銷量有何影響。但是盡我們所能並努力控制所有這些，我們確實相信，一旦我們採取了這些舉措，業務的表現就會比我們想像的要好。我們估計了銷售對庫存規模和營銷費用以及我們許多不同產品變化的彈性。而且我認為根據我們所看到的情況，我們實際上對交易量的位置非常滿意。

I think the third step of our plan, when we get there, is going to be to turn back to growth. And that's something that we clearly know how to do. It's something we're clearly incredibly well positioned for. I think we'll be better positioned for it than ever before. When we're a more efficient business, it means that growth comes easier. When we've got the infrastructure we've been able to acquire over the last 1.5 years, we're going to be in a better position to grow, but I think that's step 3 in our plan.

我認為我們計劃的第三步，當我們到達那裡時，將是恢復增長。這是我們清楚地知道該怎麼做的事情。這是我們顯然非常適合的事情。我認為我們將比以往任何時候都處於更好的位置。當我們成為一家更有效率的企業時，這意味著增長會變得更容易。當我們擁有在過去 1.5 年中能夠獲得的基礎設施時，我們將處於更好的發展位置，但我認為這是我們計劃中的第 3 步。

So we're looking forward to Q2 where we plan to hit step 1. We'll stay focused in that same direction. We've already got our plans for the next 9 to 12 months to keep the pedal down and keep making a lot of progress in unit economics. We plan to do that at somewhat similar volumes to where we are today. And then when we get there, hit that goal, we're going to definitely turn our attention back to growth because we're still incredibly small compared to this huge opportunity. It is still a 40 million unit market. We still have an incredibly unique offering and, it's still an offering that customers love.

因此，我們期待著第二季度，我們計劃在第二季度邁出第一步。我們將繼續專注於同一個方向。我們已經制定了未來 9 到 12 個月的計劃，以保持低油門並繼續在單位經濟方面取得很大進展。我們計劃以與今天類似的數量來做到這一點。然後當我們到達那裡，實現那個目標時，我們肯定會把注意力轉回增長上，因為與這個巨大的機會相比，我們仍然非常小。它仍然是一個4000萬單位的市場。我們仍然擁有令人難以置信的獨特產品，而且它仍然是客戶喜愛的產品。

Ernie, just a follow-up. I'm curious where your team sees the lowest-hanging fruit from here on the SG&A. And has your team given consideration to charging a delivery fee or somehow incentivizing the customer, either paying or avoiding a delivery cost to you?

厄尼，只是一個跟進。我很好奇您的團隊在哪裡看到 SG&A 上最容易實現的目標。您的團隊是否考慮過收取送貨費或以某種方式激勵客戶，向您支付或避免送貨費用？

Sure. Yes. So let me start with, I think, where we've made the most progress in costs over the last year, we've made a lot of progress. And so I apologize for filling these numbers around over and over again, but we're proud of them. We've cut $1 billion of cost out of the business and over $100 million quarter-over-quarter. I think there are many areas of costs. There's kind of fixed costs. There's variable costs. I think there's semi-fixed costs, and then there's customer acquisition costs.

當然。是的。因此，我認為，讓我從去年我們在成本方面取得最大進展的地方開始，我們取得了很大進展。因此，我為一遍又一遍地填寫這些數字而道歉，但我們為他們感到自豪。我們已經削減了 10 億美元的業務成本，並且環比削減了超過 1 億美元。我認為成本有很多方面。有一些固定成本。有可變成本。我認為有半固定成本，然後是客戶獲取成本。

In the variable costs, I think we are currently operating across virtually all of our operating groups at all-time best efficiencies. In the variable costs themselves, I think we're generally at or near all-time lows across all groups. And I think that's happening despite input costs being higher. Generally, the efficiency for all of our groups is better than it's ever been. And then in some groups, the costs are still in a similar place where they've been in the past because the input costs are higher, whether that's gas or there's been inflation just across the economy. And so there are some areas where they're somewhat similar. But I think we've made a tremendous amount of progress, and I think there's more progress to be made in those variable costs.

在可變成本方面，我認為我們目前幾乎所有運營團隊都以歷史最佳效率運營。就可變成本本身而言，我認為我們在所有群體中普遍處於或接近歷史最低點。我認為儘管投入成本更高，但這種情況仍在發生。一般來說，我們所有團隊的效率都比以往任何時候都好。然後在某些群體中，成本仍然與過去相似，因為投入成本更高，無論是天然氣還是整個經濟體的通貨膨脹。所以在某些方面它們有些相似。但我認為我們已經取得了巨大的進步，而且我認為在這些可變成本方面還有更多的進步。

In kind of the semi-fixed costs, I think that's actually been the biggest bucket over the last year. That's when we were just built for a different level of volume than we saw. And I think we've made a ton of progress there, and that's been extremely helpful. I think there's still some room for us to take progress and get all the way in balance there, but I think most of that has been achieved.

在半固定成本方面，我認為這實際上是去年最大的支出。那時候我們只是為與我們看到的不同級別的音量而構建的。我認為我們在那裡取得了很多進展，這非常有幫助。我認為我們仍有一些空間可以取得進展並在那裡取得平衡，但我認為其中大部分已經實現。

In customer acquisition costs, we're at all-time lows. I gave the stat. At the company level, it's about $700. In our oldest cohort, it's in the low $300s. We have 4 cohorts that are better than company average. Those are pretty great numbers. Those are numbers that are in alignment. The low $300 number is in alignment with best-in-class peers in the industry, and it's in line with our long-term financial model. So I think over time, there's room there, but I think that we've clearly proven that we can do much better than we ever have in the past, and I think that that's exciting.

在客戶獲取成本方面，我們處於歷史最低點。我給了統計數據。在公司層面，大約是 700 美元。在我們最老的隊列中，價格在 300 美元左右。我們有 4 個隊列，優於公司平均水平。這些都是相當不錯的數字。這些是對齊的數字。 300 美元的低數字與業內同類最佳同行保持一致，並且符合我們的長期財務模型。所以我認為隨著時間的推移，那裡還有空間，但我認為我們已經清楚地證明我們可以比過去做得更好，我認為這令人興奮。

Fixed costs today per unit are probably higher than they've ever been or at least near all-time highs. And that's because volumes are lower, and we've got a fixed cost business, and we feel like we're getting returns on those investments. I think that once you've got costs, you'd rather it be fixed than anything else. So I think that, that's good news, but certainly our fixed costs are higher relative to our sales today. And we do think we're getting a return on that investment. We plan to reduce those costs over time. We plan to reduce the dollars of those fixed costs. We've been making progress on that, but we can make more progress.

今天的單位固定成本可能比以往任何時候都高，或者至少接近歷史最高水平。那是因為銷量較低，而且我們有固定成本業務，我們覺得我們正在從這些投資中獲得回報。我認為，一旦你有了成本，你寧願把它固定下來，而不是其他任何東西。所以我認為，這是個好消息，但我們的固定成本肯定比我們今天的銷售額要高。我們確實認為我們正在從這項投資中獲得回報。我們計劃隨著時間的推移降低這些成本。我們計劃減少這些固定成本的美元。我們一直在這方面取得進展，但我們可以取得更多進展。

And then the remainder of them are, on a per unit basis, go away with scale. And some of them go away just with the passage of time. Today, we still have many facilities that we're massively underutilizing. In the case of some of our office space, that's office space that will probably go away over time. In the case of our inspection centers, for example, that's something that we expect to live with scale. So I think we've clearly got a path to significant additional gains in expenses across all types of expenses. I think the biggest gains are behind us, and they took the form of that kind of semi-variable form where just getting the business back in balance was really valuable.

然後他們中的其餘部分，在單位基礎上，隨著規模而消失。其中一些隨著時間的流逝而消失。今天，我們仍有許多設施未得到充分利用。就我們的某些辦公空間而言，這些辦公空間可能會隨著時間的推移而消失。例如，就我們的檢查中心而言，這是我們希望規模化的東西。因此，我認為我們顯然已經找到了一條途徑，可以在所有類型的支出中顯著增加支出。我認為最大的收益已經過去了，它們以那種半可變的形式出現，在這種情況下，讓業務恢復平衡是非常有價值的。

And then you also asked a question about delivery fees. So something that we have done over the last year is we've changed our offerings such that when customers elect to buy a car that is farther away from them, especially in case when there's a car that's closer to them, we will charge a delivery fee. And so that is flowing through our gross profit. I think Mark spoke about that as being something that's different from the gross profit that we've had in years' past. For our customers, we still have thousands and thousands of options available to them that are free. But if there's some specific feature option or unique component of a car that they're interested in that's farther away, they can still buy those cars that are farther away, and we will charge a delivery fee.

然後你還問了一個關於運費的問題。所以我們在去年所做的事情是我們改變了我們的產品，當客戶選擇購買距離他們較遠的汽車時，尤其是當有汽車離他們較近時，我們將收取送貨費費用。因此，這正在流經我們的毛利潤。我認為馬克談到這與我們過去幾年的毛利潤不同。對於我們的客戶，我們仍然有成千上萬的免費選項可供他們使用。但是，如果他們對距離更遠的汽車的某些特定功能選項或獨特組件感興趣，他們仍然可以購買那些距離更遠的汽車，我們將收取送貨費。

And I think when we go back to our previous best GPU year, which was 2021, we were at $4,500 for that year, that was a year where we didn't have that approximately $500 line item. That was a year where we didn't have ADESA. And so I think that's where Mark was talking about GPU being in a place where we think the future looks very bright relative to the past, and we're pretty excited about that as well.

而且我認為，當我們回到之前最好的 GPU 年份，即 2021 年，那一年我們的價格為 4,500 美元，那一年我們沒有大約 500 美元的訂單項。那一年我們沒有 ADESA。因此，我認為這就是 Mark 所說的 GPU 所處的位置，我們認為相對於過去而言，未來看起來非常光明，我們對此也感到非常興奮。

Next question comes from Michael Montani with Evercore ISI.

下一個問題來自 Evercore ISI 的 Michael Montani。

I had one on the cost side and then a separate one on the customer base. But just on the cost side, if I could, just wanted to dig into a few of the buckets, in particular, the compensation and benefit, other SG&A and then market occupancy and just kind of get a handle around if you think of comp and ben right now, do you basically have the right team in place, the right size team and any further improvements from here are basically going to be about process and efficiencies that you might gain? Or is there still some work to do there? And just kind of the same question then for other SG&A as well as market occupancy.

我在成本方面有一個，然後在客戶群方面有一個單獨的。但就成本方面而言，如果可以的話，我只想深入了解其中的幾個方面，特別是薪酬和福利、其他 SG&A，然後是市場佔有率，如果你想到 comp 和本，現在，您基本上是否擁有合適的團隊、合適規模的團隊以及從這裡開始的任何進一步改進基本上都與您可能獲得的流程和效率有關？還是那裡還有一些工作要做？對於其他 SG&A 以及市場佔有率，也有同樣的問題。

Yes. Sure. So let me start with market occupancy. That's the shortest answer. Market occupancy, if you think of more or less of fixed expense, I think it's largely facilities out in our markets and including betting machines. And that's an expense where we think we have significant opportunities to scale into the fixed cost base that we have, but that is more or less fixed expense that we think we can lever meaningfully with volume over time.

是的。當然。因此，讓我從市場佔有率開始。這是最簡短的答案。市場佔有率，如果你考慮或多或少的固定費用，我認為這主要是我們市場上的設施，包括投注機。這是一項費用，我們認為我們有很大的機會擴展到我們擁有的固定成本基礎，但這是或多或少的固定費用，我們認為我們可以隨著時間的推移有意義地利用數量。

Moving on to comp and benefits, we certainly see opportunity to continue to drive down compensation and benefits. I think we've made tremendous progress there. Ernie talked a lot about that progress. I think the future gains are spread across different areas. We definitely see an opportunity to continue to become more efficient in operations. We see opportunities to continue to get leverage through our logistics network. We see opportunities to continue to identify, I'd say, savings in our corporate expenses as well. So I think we see opportunities across the board in compensation and benefits. We've obviously made a lot of gains there recently.

轉向薪酬和福利，我們當然看到了繼續降低薪酬和福利的機會。我認為我們在那裡取得了巨大的進步。厄尼談到了很多關於這一進展的事情。我認為未來的收益分佈在不同的領域。我們肯定看到了繼續提高運營效率的機會。我們看到了繼續通過我們的物流網絡發揮影響力的機會。我們看到了繼續確定的機會，我想說，也可以節省我們的公司開支。所以我認為我們在薪酬和福利方面看到了全面的機會。我們最近顯然在那裡取得了很多進展。

In other SG&A, we've talked about before, there's kind of 3 major categories of expenses in there. There's transaction expenses, there's corporate expenses and there's technology expenses. I think as Ernie sort of alluded to, we see opportunities in all 3 of those areas. We see an opportunity to bring down per unit transaction expenses over time with further efficiency initiatives. We've made some gains in limited warranty, bringing that down on a per unit basis recently and we see opportunities in some of the other expenses like title of registration.

在其他 SG&A 中，我們之前談到過，其中有 3 大類支出。有交易費用，有公司費用，還有技術費用。我認為正如 Ernie 所暗示的那樣，我們在這三個領域都看到了機會。我們看到了通過進一步提高效率的舉措隨著時間的推移降低每單位交易費用的機會。我們在有限保修方面取得了一些進展，最近在單位基礎上降低了保修，我們在其他一些費用（如註冊所有權）方面看到了機會。

In corporate and technology, definitely, I think Ernie covered a lot of this ground, but see a lot of opportunity for leverage with increased volume, but also see an opportunity to bring down dollar expenses over time as we continue to focus on efficiency. In touching on a lot of the same points that Ernie touched on, but we clearly see opportunity throughout the cost structure from where we sit today.

在公司和技術方面，我認為厄尼當然涵蓋了很多這方面的內容，但他看到了很多利用增加的數量來發揮槓桿作用的機會，但也看到了隨著我們繼續關注效率而隨著時間的推移降低美元支出的機會。在談到厄尼提到的許多相同點時，但我們從今天的位置清楚地看到了整個成本結構中的機會。

That's helpful. And just to follow up on the consumer side for a second, I don't know if there's any color that you could share in terms of the 25% decline that you saw. How would that shake out based on household income levels? And then also, I know you all have been working to improve profitability, and there is some metering involved. So can you give us a sense for how maybe the coastal markets were able to perform relative to those in the central part of the country?

這很有幫助。只是在消費者方面跟進一秒鐘，我不知道你是否可以分享你看到的 25% 下降的任何顏色。根據家庭收入水平，這將如何調整？然後，我知道你們都在努力提高盈利能力，並且涉及到一些計量。那麼，您能否告訴我們沿海市場相對於該國中部市場的表現如何？

Sure. I don't think we have anything particularly interesting to say there. I think the trends that we've seen over the last year or so have remained. And I think as it relates to Carvana-specific trends, I think we continue to see the middle of the country performing a little bit better than the coast for the same reasons discussed. And then I think as affordability has continued to kind of move away from most consumers, I think the trends that you'd expect where I think, across the entire auto industry, there's generally been a shift toward higher incomes and higher FICOs. And I think that's really just more of a distribution shift that we would expect and hope will revert when either interest rates start to back up or car prices start to back up or both.

當然。我認為我們在那裡沒有什麼特別有趣的事情要說。我認為我們在過去一年左右看到的趨勢仍然存在。而且我認為，由於它與 Carvana 的特定趨勢有關，我認為出於所討論的相同原因，我們繼續看到該國中部的表現比沿海好一點。然後我認為隨著負擔能力繼續遠離大多數消費者，我認為你所期望的趨勢是，在整個汽車行業，普遍向更高的收入和更高的 FICO 轉變。而且我認為，這實際上只是我們預期並希望在利率開始回升或汽車價格開始回升或兩者兼而有之時恢復的分配轉變。

Through most of 2022, we saw car prices depreciate, but it was offset by increasing interest rates. I think early this year, we saw volatility in interest rates. We saw car prices start going back up. And I think more recently, we've seen wholesale prices going down for the last several weeks. Retail price has still been barely appreciating, but it looked like they will probably start to depreciate shortly. And so hopefully, we're headed down to a more sustainable path of sort of orderly depreciation that will bring more customers back into the market.

在 2022 年的大部分時間裡，我們看到汽車價格在貶值，但被利率上升所抵消。我認為今年年初，我們看到了利率波動。我們看到汽車價格開始回升。而且我認為最近幾週，我們看到批發價格在下降。零售價仍然幾乎沒有升值，但看起來它們可能很快就會開始貶值。因此，希望我們能走上一條更可持續的有序貶值之路，讓更多客戶重返市場。

Next question comes from Seth Basham with Wedbush Securities.

下一個問題來自 Wedbush Securities 的 Seth Basham。

My first question is just on your first quarter results that were meaningfully higher than the updated guidance you provided on March 22 driven by gross profit. Can you give us some more insight as to what drove the major improvement in the last days of the quarter?

我的第一個問題是你的第一季度業績明顯高於你在 3 月 22 日提供的受毛利驅動的更新指導。您能否更深入地了解是什麼推動了本季度最後幾天的重大改進？

Sure. Yes. So with respect to our outlook, for Q1, I think we're very close to the top end of the range on units, revenue, SG&A, expense, loan originations, all those metrics. We beat on GPU. And in our outlook, we called out a couple of major points of uncertainty that wouldn't be known until after quarter end, those being the P&L from our loan hedging as well as our retail inventory allowance, which, in part, depends on what we see in the market. It's kind of around the time of quarter end or shortly thereafter. And so both of those uncertain items resolved favorably. That was the big driver on GPU. We had a couple of other small beats across other areas of the business in the last couple of weeks of the quarter, but those are the big 2.

當然。是的。因此，就我們的前景而言，對於第一季度，我認為我們非常接近單位、收入、SG&A、費用、貸款發放以及所有這些指標的範圍的頂端。我們擊敗了 GPU。在我們的展望中，我們指出了幾個主要的不確定性點，這些不確定性要到季度結束後才能知道，這些不確定性是我們貸款對沖的損益以及我們的零售庫存津貼，這在一定程度上取決於什麼我們在市場上看到。大約在季度末或之後不久。因此，這兩個不確定的項目都順利解決了。這是 GPU 的主要驅動力。在本季度的最後幾週，我們在業務的其他領域也有一些其他的小節拍，但那些是大的 2。

Got it. That's helpful. So you've indicated that the retail inventory allowance is likely not sustainable. You've also talked to other GPU likely being over $2,000 in the second quarter, primarily driven by normalization of loan sale volumes. What do you consider normalized volumes? You've already sold $1.3 billion this quarter, I presume that's in line to above what I'd consider normal based on historical trend.

知道了。這很有幫助。所以你已經表示零售庫存津貼可能不可持續。您還談到其他 GPU 在第二季度可能超過 2,000 美元，這主要是受貸款銷售量正常化的推動。您如何看待標準化交易量？你本季度已經售出 13 億美元，我認為這符合我根據歷史趨勢認為正常的水平。

So I think the easiest way to think about normalized loan sale volume is you approximately sell what you originate. That's what we've done over the first many, many years of our life as a company. And so I think normalize is you sell what you originate. Obviously, there can be some timing shifts from quarter-to-quarter depending on market and other dynamics. As we mentioned, for example, sold less than we originated in Q4 as one example of that. So I think that's the easy way to think about normalized loan sale volume. Some quarters will be below normalized, some will be above. But on average, that's the right way to think about normalized.

所以我認為考慮標準化貸款銷售量的最簡單方法是你大致銷售你的來源。這就是我們在公司成立的最初許多年裡所做的事情。所以我認為正常化是你出售你原創的東西。顯然，根據市場和其他動態，每個季度可能會有一些時間上的變化。正如我們所提到的，例如，銷量低於我們在第四季度發起的銷量就是一個例子。所以我認為這是考慮標準化貸款銷售量的簡單方法。有些季度會低於正常化水平，有些會高於正常化水平。但平均而言，這是考慮歸一化的正確方法。

I think so far this quarter, obviously, we had success selling and securitizing loans. So I think we feel good about that. I think other GPUs, we view as one of the areas of strength in the business, along with some of the other areas that we pointed out on the rest of this call. So I think we're feeling good about where we're at.

我認為本季度到目前為止，顯然，我們在銷售和證券化貸款方面取得了成功。所以我認為我們對此感覺良好。我認為其他 GPU，我們認為是業務的優勢領域之一，以及我們在本次電話會議的其餘部分指出的其他一些領域。所以我認為我們對我們所處的位置感覺良好。

The next question comes from Nick Jones with JMP Securities.

下一個問題來自 JMP 證券公司的 Nick Jones。

Maybe just a follow-up on the cost reductions and maybe the impact on the logistics network, as you start to turn the corner and maybe starting to build inventory and ramping volume, have kind of the cost reduction efforts you've made potentially impacted your ability to kind of scale volume in logistics? Or how should we think about maybe incremental investment out the other side as you do start to build inventory down the road and maybe what changes you've made in logistics today?

也許只是降低成本的後續行動，也許只是對物流網絡的影響，當你開始轉彎，也許開始建立庫存和增加產量時，你所做的降低成本的努力可能會影響你的物流中的規模量能力如何？或者我們應該如何考慮在你開始建立庫存時從另一邊增加投資，也許你今天在物流方面做出了哪些改變？

Sure. So I'm going to answer with respect to most of the operating groups, and I think logistics will fit in this framework as well. I think there's efficiency and focus. There may be 2 different things. And I think we've clearly increased efficiency. Just because you asked about the logistics network, in the case of the logistics network, we've recently increased utilization of our logistics network, meaning the trucks are driving around with more cars on their back. We've decreased the miles. They're traveling over time by something like 40%. I think even quarter-over-quarter, it was down by 12%. That's taking many different forms that are driving those miles down. So it is just more efficient. And therefore, there is kind of less work done per sale. And therefore, when it is time to grow, it will be less work to achieve the same level of growth. And I think that that's true across all of our different operating groups.

當然。所以我要回答大多數運營團隊，我認為物流也適合這個框架。我認為有效率和專注。可能有兩種不同的東西。我認為我們已經明顯提高了效率。就因為你問了物流網絡，就物流網絡而言，我們最近提高了物流網絡的利用率，這意味著卡車在後面開著更多的車。我們減少了里程。他們隨著時間的推移大約移動了 40%。我認為即使是環比下降了 12%。這採取了許多不同的形式來推動這些里程的減少。所以它只是更有效率。因此，每次銷售完成的工作較少。因此，當需要增長時，實現相同增長水平的工作就會減少。我認為我們所有不同的運營團隊都是如此。

And I also think that a huge part of that efficiency has been gained because we sort of removed the variable from the equation. We've aimed for lower volumes that we are confident we could hit. And by doing that, we were able to just really focus on costs and expenses and keep everyone focused on all the projects that were necessary to complete to drive down those costs and expenses. And I think as a result, we are not focused on growth. And growth is its own focus, and it has a lot of associated projects, and it requires time and effort and attention.

而且我還認為，由於我們從等式中刪除了變量，因此獲得了很大一部分效率。我們的目標是降低我們有信心可以達到的銷量。通過這樣做，我們能夠真正專注於成本和費用，並讓每個人都專注於所有必須完成的項目，以降低這些成本和費用。我認為結果是，我們沒有專注於增長。而增長是它自己的重點，它有很多相關的項目，需要時間和精力和注意力。

And we're not currently positioned to grow as quickly. So I think if we decided to press the button and turn around tomorrow, we certainly know how, but there would be a lag time associated with that to be able to really grow the way that we have in the past. And that is not our plan. Our plan is to hit the first step of our plan next quarter, to then move through that to significantly positive unit economics, and then to move to growth. And I think between here and there, we hope to make more gains and efficiency across all of our operating groups and then to shift our focus to growth when it's time. And that's something that we clearly feel like we know how to do, and we clearly feel like we've got consumer demand for our offering that we'll be able to go satisfy when it's time.

而且我們目前無法快速增長。所以我認為，如果我們決定明天按下按鈕並轉身，我們當然知道該怎麼做，但是要真正像過去那樣發展，將會有一段滯後時間。那不是我們的計劃。我們的計劃是在下個季度實現我們計劃的第一步，然後通過它實現顯著積極的單位經濟效益，然後轉向增長。而且我認為，在這里和那里之間，我們希望在我們所有的運營團隊中獲得更多收益和效率，然後在適當的時候將我們的重點轉移到增長上。這是我們清楚地感覺到我們知道該怎麼做的事情，而且我們清楚地感覺到我們的產品有消費者需求，我們將能夠在適當的時候滿足這些需求。

Next question is from Rajat Gupta with JPMorgan.

下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Rajat Gupta。

Just wanted to follow up on the receivables question from Seth earlier. So if I look at the reported financials, I mean, I think in the fourth quarter, you sold roughly $800 million lower than what you originated. In the first quarter, it looks like it was close to $300 million to $400 million versus what's originated. So there's like $1.2 billion of backlog receivables that need to be sold before you can go back to a similar origination versus sales run rate or a normalized run rate. How long should we expect for that $1.2 billion backlog to get cleared? Like, is it going to be as soon as 2Q? Or will it take multiple quarters? And I have a follow-up.

只是想跟進早些時候來自 Seth 的應收賬款問題。因此，如果我查看報告的財務數據，我的意思是，我認為在第四季度，你的銷售額比最初的銷售額低了大約 8 億美元。在第一季度，與最初的相比，它看起來接近 3 億到 4 億美元。因此，大約需要出售 12 億美元的積壓應收賬款，然後才能返回到類似的原始與銷售運行率或標準化運行率。 12 億美元的積壓申請需要多長時間才能清理乾淨？就像，它會盡快在 2Q 嗎？還是需要多個季度？我有一個後續行動。

Sure. So I think you're approximately right in the size of the backlog. And I think that the way that, that works in the business is we've got a couple of billion dollars of warehouses where we can kind of house those loans prior to selling them. That does tie up capital. So that extra, on the order of $1.2 billion of loans, is tying up a pretty meaningful portion of liquidity. When we relieve that, that will unlock quite a bit of cash. We probably have about $0.15 discount on average in our warehouses. And so that means, using your number of $1.2 billion, that would unlock about $180 million of cash by selling those receivables down.

當然。所以我認為你對積壓工作的規模大致正確。而且我認為，在業務中運作的方式是我們擁有數十億美元的倉庫，我們可以在出售之前存放這些貸款。這確實佔用了資本。因此，這筆額外的貸款（大約 12 億美元）佔用了相當大一部分的流動性。當我們解除它時，那將釋放相當多的現金。我們的倉庫平均可能有大約 0.15 美元的折扣。所以這意味著，使用你的 12 億美元數字，通過出售這些應收賬款可以釋放大約 1.8 億美元的現金。

I think we plan to sell those down in the coming quarters in an orderly way. The benefit of carrying them is we actually do earn additional finance GPU because those are very yield-y assets. And prior to sale, we are the ones benefiting from that yield. As Mark called out, in Q1, we had some benefits there in finance GPU, but we do plan to catch up and sell them. I think the financial markets at least recently have been in a better spot.

我認為我們計劃在未來幾個季度以有序的方式出售這些產品。攜帶它們的好處是我們實際上確實賺取了額外的金融 GPU，因為這些是非常有收益的資產。在出售之前，我們是受益於這種收益的人。正如馬克所說，在第一季度，我們在金融 GPU 方面獲得了一些優勢，但我們確實計劃趕上並出售它們。我認為金融市場至少最近處於一個更好的位置。

At the end of the first quarter, we had some elements of the regional banking crisis that caused the securitization market to be a bit choppy, and that caused us to push the securitization back that had been planned. We recently completed that securitization. It was our largest subprime securitization that we've done to date, and that actually went extremely well. We were many, many times oversubscribed across all classes, and we're extremely pleased with the way that went.

在第一季度末，我們有一些區域性銀行危機的因素導致證券化市場有點波動，這導致我們推遲了原計劃的證券化。我們最近完成了證券化。這是我們迄今為止完成的最大的次級抵押貸款證券化，而且實際上進行得非常順利。我們在所有課程中都多次超額認購，我們對進展情況感到非常滿意。

I think a big part of what has driven that is, I think, we do attract the customer. We give them an experience that end up leading to very high-quality loan performance. I think the securitization market has recognized that. And so I think that that's something that we've been able to take advantage of as we've gone through this period. And so I think over the coming quarters, assuming that the financial markets remain open in the way they have been over the last several weeks, we will likely sell down those excess receivables, and that would be a onetime tailwind to other GPU when we do complete those sales.

我認為推動的很大一部分是，我認為，我們確實吸引了客戶。我們為他們提供的體驗最終會帶來非常高質量的貸款業績。我認為證券化市場已經認識到這一點。所以我認為這是我們在這段時間裡能夠利用的東西。因此，我認為在未來幾個季度，假設金融市場像過去幾週一樣開放，我們可能會出售這些超額應收賬款，這對其他 GPU 來說是一次性的順風。完成這些銷售。

Understood. That's helpful. And then maybe just a broader question on the liquidity profile. You mentioned in the past that your next avenue to shore up liquidity would be to leverage the ADESA real estate, curious like if that view has changed at all over the last couple of months. And would you be open to considering alternate options outside of the exchange offer, which is ongoing, to reduce the current level of interest burden versus taking on more debt, maybe restructuring the existing unsecured bonds or perhaps even considering a debt for equity swap? Yes, that's it.

明白了。這很有幫助。然後可能只是關於流動性狀況的更廣泛的問題。你過去提到過，你支撐流動性的下一個途徑是利用 ADESA 房地產，好奇的是這種觀點在過去幾個月裡是否完全改變了。你是否願意考慮交換要約之外的其他選擇，這是正在進行的，以減少當前的利息負擔水平而不是承擔更多債務，可能重組現有的無擔保債券，或者甚至可能考慮債轉股？對，就是那樣。

Sure. I can take that one. So no change as to the way that we've historically thought about that. I think typically, when we think about financing sources, generally speaking, we favor asset-based or secured financing, of which I think the biggest asset that we have today is real estate. We have nearly $2 billion of total unpledged real estate assets. A little more than half of that is ADESA real estate locations. And no change to our overall thought process there. I think we generally prefer asset-based than secured financing.

當然。我可以拿那個。因此，我們歷來思考這個問題的方式沒有改變。我認為通常情況下，當我們考慮融資來源時，一般來說，我們更喜歡基於資產或有擔保的融資，我認為我們今天擁有的最大資產是房地產。我們擁有近 20 億美元的未抵押房地產資產總額。其中一半多一點是 ADESA 房地產地點。我們在那裡的整體思維過程沒有改變。我認為我們通常更喜歡基於資產的融資而不是有擔保的融資。

The next question comes from Alex Potter with Piper Sandler.

下一個問題來自 Alex Potter 和 Piper Sandler。

Great. Just one question from me, and it's about the competitive landscape in auto loans. I know that historically, you had mentioned you were a little bit quicker to hike interest rates than some of your peers who had bigger balance sheets. Wondering if there's been any rationalization in that regard, or any other comments you'd be willing to make on the competitive landscape in auto lending would be helpful.

偉大的。我只有一個問題，是關於汽車貸款的競爭格局。我知道，從歷史上看，你曾提到你加息的速度比一些擁有更大資產負債表的同行要快一點。想知道在這方面是否有任何合理化，或者您願意就汽車貸款的競爭格局發表任何其他評論會有所幫助。

Sure. Well, I think it's been a dynamic environment. So I think the primary dynamic that we probably have spoken most about, as it relates to our loans over the last year or so, was kind of the spread between the 2-year treasury and Fed funds, which the 2-year treasury is a good proxy for our cost of funds when we sell our receivables because they have approximately a 2-year duration, and they're generally sold into capital markets that use those sorts of rates as a reference point. And approximately half of the market for auto loans is provided by banks that oftentimes are using some combination of that and the Fed funds as their frame of reference.

當然。好吧，我認為這是一個充滿活力的環境。所以我認為我們可能談論最多的主要動態，因為它與我們過去一年左右的貸款有關，是 2 年期國債和聯邦基金之間的利差，2 年期國債是當我們出售應收賬款時，可以很好地代表我們的資金成本，因為它們的期限大約為 2 年，而且它們通常會出售給使用這些利率作為參考點的資本市場。大約一半的汽車貸款市場由銀行提供，這些銀行通常將其與聯邦基金的某種組合作為參考框架。

I think since the end of the first quarter when kind of the regional banking crisis hit or started, I think there's also been some dramatic moves in spreads that I think are other impacts that are somewhat unique right now and I think are a little bit harder to forecast over the medium term. I think probably there's been some spread widening in different areas. I think undoubtedly, Carvana itself has seen spread widening over the last year. I think that's too bad, but it shows up in our results. And so once you've got the results, you know what they are, I think that's actually good news for the future. So I think there's room for our spreads to come down over time as we approach the cost of funds of more mature issuers. So I think that that's a dynamic that will play out.

我認為自從第一季度末某種區域性銀行業危機襲來或開始以來，我認為利差也出現了一些戲劇性的變化，我認為這是目前有些獨特的其他影響，而且我認為有點困難對中期進行預測。我認為不同領域的傳播可能有所擴大。我認為毫無疑問，Carvana 本身在過去一年中的價差擴大了。我認為這太糟糕了，但它顯示在我們的結果中。所以一旦你得到結果，你就會知道它們是什麼，我認為這對未來來說實際上是個好消息。因此，我認為隨著我們接近更成熟發行人的資金成本，我們的利差隨著時間的推移有下降的空間。所以我認為這是一種將會發揮作用的動力。

And then I just think that from here to the next couple of years from now, when things are normal again, I think there will probably, at some point, be a normalization in 2-year treasury versus Fed funds, and that should normalize. There will probably be something of a normalization in spreads. And then there should be a normalization in Carvana spreads relative to other issuers. And I think that all of those things leave room, I think, to be optimistic, but the timing on all of them is also uncertain.

然後我只是認為，從現在到未來幾年，當事情再次恢復正常時，我認為在某個時候，2 年期國債與聯邦基金可能會正常化，而且應該正常化。利差可能會出現某種程度的正常化。然後 Carvana 相對於其他發行人的利差應該正常化。而且我認為所有這些事情都留下了樂觀的空間，但所有這些事情的時間也不確定。

The next question is from Winnie Dong with Deutsche Bank.

下一個問題來自德意志銀行的 Winnie Dong。

I just have one. On the commentary that you expect similar SG&A expense on a quarter-over-quarter basis, can you maybe clarify whether this is on a per unit basis or absolute dollar? And then I know you've discussed all of the various buckets to sort of go after on a longer-term basis. But near term, what's sort of driving that pause? And then when might that longer-term sort of reduction come back?

我只有一個。關於您預計季度環比的類似 SG&A 費用的評論，您能否澄清這是按單位計算還是按絕對美元計算？然後我知道你已經討論了所有不同的桶，以便在更長期的基礎上進行排序。但在短期內，是什麼導致了這種停頓？那麼這種長期的減少何時會回來？

Sure. Yes. Absolutely. So on the first part of the question, so we were talking about SG&A expense on a dollar basis. And I think to put that in context a little bit, I think last quarter, we outlined a goal to achieve approximately $420 million of non-GAAP SG&A expenses by Q2. We obviously did that a quarter early. And not only to beat it a quarter early, we'd be able also beat that goal by more than $15 million. So I think we're obviously feeling really great about the overall progress in removing SG&A expenses from the business and becoming more operationally efficient. So I think that context is helpful. In Q2, our expectation is similar SG&A expense to Q1, but I think that, in part, reflects just the very, very significant gains that we were able to make in Q1.

當然。是的。絕對地。所以在問題的第一部分，我們討論的是以美元為基礎的 SG&A 費用。我想稍微說明一下，我認為上個季度，我們制定了一個目標，即到第二季度實現約 4.2 億美元的非 GAAP SG&A 支出。我們顯然提前了四分之一。不僅要提前四分之一實現目標，我們還能夠以超過 1500 萬美元的優勢實現目標。因此，我認為我們顯然對從業務中消除 SG&A 費用並提高運營效率的總體進展感覺非常好。所以我認為上下文是有幫助的。在第二季度，我們的預期 SG&A 費用與第一季度相似，但我認為，這在一定程度上反映了我們在第一季度能夠取得的非常、非常顯著的收益。

Looking forward beyond that, we've made tremendous progress, but we certainly do not believe we're done. I think we have significant opportunities across the business, as I alluded to earlier, to continue to become more efficient in our operations. And that happens through all of the technology projects that we have going on throughout the operational efficiency groups to automate manual tasks; to make our routing and scheduling more efficient; to, as we alluded to earlier, incentivize customers to choose the cars that are close to them; or to incentivizing them to do pickup versus delivery, all kinds of things that we still have in progress to help drive operational efficiencies we're working on. We made great progress, but they're not done yet. So I think that's a little bit more color on the opportunities that we see ahead.

展望未來，我們已經取得了巨大進步，但我們當然不相信我們已經完成了。正如我之前提到的，我認為我們在整個業務中都有重要的機會，可以繼續提高我們的運營效率。這發生在我們在整個運營效率小組中進行的所有技術項目中，以實現手動任務的自動化；使我們的路由和調度更有效率；正如我們之前提到的，激勵客戶選擇離他們最近的汽車；或者激勵他們進行提貨而不是送貨，我們仍在進行各種事情，以幫助提高我們正在努力的運營效率。我們取得了很大進展，但還沒有完成。所以我認為這對我們未來看到的機會有更多的色彩。

The next question comes from Chris Bottiglieri with Exane BNP Paribas.

下一個問題來自 Exane BNP Paribas 的 Chris Bottiglieri。

I wanted to ask, I guess, first about the financing market. I saw you sit a nonprime deal, which is pretty impressive to get that price in this liquidity environment. But like conceptually, how do you think about owning that residual versus selling it off just given where discount rates and risk spreads are and all that? Like, is it still like capital efficient to do gain on sale for these nonprime-type deals? Or would you ultimately look to sell the residual?

我想我首先想問的是融資市場。我看到你坐了一筆非優質交易，在這種流動性環境下獲得這個價格是相當令人印象深刻的。但就像從概念上講，你如何考慮擁有剩餘部分而不是僅考慮貼現率和風險利差以及所有其他因素就將其出售？比如，為這些非主要類型的交易進行銷售收益是否仍然像資本效率一樣？還是您最終會出售剩餘的？

I think in general, we've looked to sell the residual. I think you point to something that is correct, which is the yields that residual buyers today are getting are very high compared to the past. And those yield profiles are very robust. They can take very large multiples of expected losses and still do quite well. And so I think that dynamic is correct, and that makes those desirable assets. But I think in this environment with our current goals, we still intend to sell those residuals over time.

我認為總的來說，我們已經考慮出售殘差。我認為你指出的是正確的，即今天剩餘買家獲得的收益率與過去相比非常高。這些收益率曲線非常穩健。他們可以承受非常大的預期損失倍數，但仍然做得很好。因此，我認為這種動態是正確的，這就是那些令人嚮往的資產。但我認為在我們當前目標的這種環境下，我們仍然打算隨著時間的推移出售這些殘差。

Got you. Okay. And then one, I guess, conceptual question as well on inventory. So it sounds like you just make more money on retail GPU when you sell the cars under 90 days. And I get the world just shifted dramatically on a die, like no one can see it move that quickly. But have you rethought how you priced cars? The algorithms, like is there a way to get more proactive with taking markdowns and setting up through wholesale, just to, like, put a rule in place to sell cars above a certain number of days? Like, how do you learn from this experience and realizing how much better the model runs with quicker inventory days and kind of prevent this from happening in the future?

明白了好的。我想，還有一個關於庫存的概念性問題。因此，當您在 90 天以內銷售汽車時，聽起來您只是在零售 GPU 上賺了更多錢。我發現世界在一個骰子上發生了巨大的變化，就像沒有人能看到它移動得那麼快。但是你有沒有重新考慮過你是如何給汽車定價的？這些算法，比如有沒有一種方法可以更主動地採取降價和批發設置，比如製定規則，在一定天數以上銷售汽車？比如，你如何從這種經驗中學習並意識到模型運行得更好，庫存天數更快，並在未來防止這種情況發生？

Sure. I could take that one. So I think we have a multiyear period, I would say, honestly, 2018, '19, I think, late '20 and 2021, where we operated pretty tight inventory. So average sale, call it, as low as the high 50s, up through the mid- to high 60s, and that's on average. We're pretty consistently operating in that range. I think that we probably experienced a little blip with COVID in early '20 and then certainly moved materially off of that normalized range in 2022 because we just overbuilt inventory for the interest rate environment that ultimately came about. And the sales that we ultimately ended up executing in 2022, we meaningfully overbuilt inventory for that.

當然。我可以接受那個。所以我認為我們有一個多年期，老實說，2018 年、19 年、20 年底和 2021 年，我們的庫存非常緊張。所以平均銷售額，低至 50 多歲，一直到 60 多歲中高，這就是平均水平。我們一直在這個範圍內運作。我認為我們可能在 20 世紀初經歷了 COVID 的短暫波動，然後肯定會在 2022 年大幅偏離正常範圍，因為我們只是為最終出現的利率環境過度構建了庫存。而我們最終在 2022 年完成的銷售，我們為此大量增加了庫存。

And so I think what we're seeing with these cars above 90 days, I do think, is really a function of us overbuilding inventory relative to sales and sort of maintaining that for most of 2022. Now we've clearly adjusted, clearly marched down inventory. The cars that we hold relative to the cars that we're selling are in a much more normalized range. As everything sort of works through, we think that will lead to a much more normalized average sale, a much more normalized share of cars sold in less than 90 days. And so I think really the name of the game is returning to our historical norms after a pretty significant outlier year in 2020 that really kind of culminated in Q1.

因此，我認為我們看到這些汽車超過 90 天的情況，我確實認為，這實際上是我們相對於銷售過度建立庫存的一個功能，並在 2022 年的大部分時間裡保持這種狀態。現在我們已經明顯調整，明顯前進減少庫存。我們持有的汽車相對於我們出售的汽車處於更加正常化的範圍內。隨著一切順利進行，我們認為這將導致平均銷售額更加正常化，在不到 90 天內售出的汽車份額更加正常化。因此，我認為在 2020 年非常重要的異常年份之後，遊戲的名稱真的正在回歸我們的歷史規範，這確實在第一季度達到了高潮。

The next question is from Zachary Fadem with Wells Fargo.

下一個問題來自富國銀行的 Zachary Fadem。

This is Sam Reid, pinch-hitting per Zack. Wanted to bucket advertising savings in a bit more detail, can you break out how much you might be saving from shifting to different ad spend channels like more digital versus just absolute reductions in ad spend? And then separately, a more broader one on market share, as you rightsize the business, who do you think is picking up some of the market share you might be giving up?

這是 Sam Reid，根據 Zack 捏擊。想要更詳細地計算廣告節省，您能否詳細說明從轉向不同的廣告支出渠道（例如更多數字廣告支出與僅絕對減少廣告支出）可以節省多少？然後單獨地，一個更廣泛的市場份額，當你調整業務規模時，你認為誰正在獲得你可能放棄的一些市場份額？

Sure. So I think at a very high level, I think what we've tried to do in marketing is kind of manage our uncertainty as best we can. And so what that basically meant was pulling more away from digital channels than brand channels. And what I mean by managing our uncertainty, I think brand channels tend to have a long and difficult to measure payoff, but we think that payoff is significant. Building a brand is an incredibly difficult thing to do. It's an incredibly valuable thing to do.

當然。所以我認為在一個非常高的層面上，我認為我們在營銷方面試圖做的是盡可能地管理我們的不確定性。因此，這基本上意味著比品牌渠道更遠離數字渠道。我所說的管理我們的不確定性的意思是，我認為品牌渠道往往會有長期且難以衡量的回報，但我們認為回報是顯著的。建立品牌是一件非常困難的事情。這是一件非常有價值的事情。

Direct channels and various advertising channels vary in their level of directness. But direct channels tend to have a shorter, faster payoff and is much more measurable. And so as we've gone through this environment, we've tested many different channels. Some of those tests take kind of a global form where we do large AB tests of using a channel or not using a channel. Many of those tests take kind of a market level form where we pick a subset of markets that look similar to other subset of markets and we run one marketing channel in one set of markets and a different marketing channel in a different subset of markets, and we try to get a sense for how those are going. And those sorts of tests are a little bit less susceptible to errors and attribution.

直接渠道和各種廣告渠道的直接程度各不相同。但直接渠道的回報往往更短、更快，而且更易於衡量。因此，當我們經歷這個環境時，我們測試了許多不同的渠道。其中一些測試採用全局形式，我們在其中進行大型 AB 測試，使用或不使用頻道。其中許多測試採用市場層面的形式，我們選擇看起來與其他市場子集相似的市場子集，我們在一組市場中運行一個營銷渠道，在不同的市場子集中運行不同的營銷渠道，並且我們試圖了解這些進展如何。而且這些類型的測試不太容易受到錯誤和歸因的影響。

And I think we've just tried to kind of continually learn because this environment has been different. It's been an environment where car prices are higher. It's been an environment where our inventory is smaller. Both those things mean lower conversion. It's been an environment where there's been less competition for various marketing channels, which means clicks are less expensive. And that varies by the marketing channel, even by the kind of subchannel inside of any given channel. If we think about SCM, for example, there are many sub keywords and sub kind of campaigns that you can run.

而且我認為我們只是試圖不斷學習，因為這種環境已經不同了。這是汽車價格較高的環境。這是一個我們的庫存較小的環境。這兩件事都意味著較低的轉化率。這是一個各種營銷渠道競爭較少的環境，這意味著點擊成本較低。這因營銷渠道而異，甚至因任何給定渠道內的子渠道類型而異。例如，如果我們考慮 SCM，您可以運行許多子關鍵字和子類型的活動。

So we try to be thoughtful about running many different tests and learning. I think that we feel like we've been pretty successful in cutting a lot of expense out. And I think we're excited by that. I think we're also starting to see that, with GPU climbing up pretty significantly and our variable costs dropping pretty significantly, our contribution margins are starting to look better. And so I think some of those trades could change a little bit in terms of what marketing channels we're supposed to be utilizing. So we'll keep learning. And I think over time, we will most likely grow marketing spend from here, and I think there's a reasonable chance that it could even go up at the per unit level just given what's most efficient, given our higher level of GPU and our lower levels of variable costs.

因此，我們嘗試考慮運行許多不同的測試和學習。我認為我們覺得我們在削減大量開支方面非常成功。我認為我們對此感到興奮。我認為我們也開始看到，隨著 GPU 的顯著攀升以及我們的可變成本顯著下降，我們的邊際收益開始變得更好。因此，我認為其中一些交易可能會在我們應該使用的營銷渠道方面發生一些變化。所以我們會繼續學習。而且我認為隨著時間的推移，我們很可能會從這裡增加營銷支出，而且我認為考慮到我們更高級別的 GPU 和更低的級別，考慮到最高效的情況，它甚至有可能在單位級別上上升的可變成本。

And then as it relates to kind of market share, what I would say there is I really think the most important point here is this market is enormous. And so we're probably right now on the order of about 1% market share. We're down from where we were, let's say, 2 years ago. But we're down a similar amount to the market overall. I think quarter-to-quarter and kind of year-to-year, there can be some variability in those numbers. But if you look back kind of to a more normalized environment, we're probably down at a similar level to where the market was overall. And so we're probably about 1%. If you look at it over the last 6 months, 9 months, 12 months, we've certainly given up some. We were probably a little higher than 1%, and we're probably back down to 1% now. But then where that is going is to a mix of the other 99%.

然後因為它涉及到某種市場份額，我想說的是我真的認為這裡最重要的一點是這個市場是巨大的。因此，我們現在的市場份額可能約為 1%。比方說，我們比 2 年前要低。但我們的下跌幅度與整體市場相似。我認為按季度和按年計算，這些數字可能會有一些變化。但如果你回顧一下更正常化的環境，我們可能處於與整體市場相似的水平。所以我們可能只有 1%。如果你看看過去 6 個月、9 個月、12 個月的情況，我們肯定已經放棄了一些。我們可能略高於 1%，現在可能已回落至 1%。但接下來的發展方向是其他 99% 的混合體。

And I think the most important dynamic there has just been this is a very, very large market. And now is not a time when everyone is focused on growth here and we think it's appropriate not to be focused on growth. But I do think that if we allow ourselves the indulgence, it's worth thinking about what that will feel like again because we do have a differentiated customer offering that customers love. Our NPS is high. As we get more efficient, we're seeing benefits to NPS there. There will be a time when it's time to grow inventory again, and it's time to turn up marketing because our GPU is high and our variable costs are low. And it will be very difficult to replicate the machine that we've built, and we're incredibly well positioned for that time.

我認為剛剛出現的最重要的動態是一個非常非常大的市場。現在不是每個人都關注增長的時候，我們認為不關注增長是合適的。但我確實認為，如果我們允許自己放縱自己，那麼值得考慮一下再次感覺會是什麼感覺，因為我們確實擁有客戶喜愛的差異化客戶服務。我們的 NPS 很高。隨著我們變得更有效率，我們在那裡看到了 NPS 的好處。總有一天會再次增加庫存，是時候加強營銷了，因為我們的 GPU 很高，可變成本很低。複製我們製造的機器將非常困難，而我們在那個時候處於非常有利的位置。

So I think when that time comes, we'll look to kind of take that volume from the entirety of that market again. That's a very, very large market. And the great news of being in a market that big is very few players will be able to identify exactly where it's coming from because it is just such an enormous pool that we are drawing from. So I think it's hard for us to say where the very small amount of market share that we've given up has gone, but I think we're very well positioned to take it back when it's time.

所以我認為當那個時候到來時，我們會再次從整個市場中奪走那個數量。這是一個非常非常大的市場。在一個如此大的市場中的好消息是，很少有玩家能夠準確地確定它的來源，因為我們正在從中汲取巨大的資源。所以我認為我們很難說我們放棄的極少量市場份額去了哪裡，但我認為我們完全有能力在適當的時候收回它。

This concludes the question-and-answer session. I would now like to turn the call back over to CEO Ernie Garcia for any closing remarks.

問答環節到此結束。我現在想把電話轉回給首席執行官厄尼加西亞，聽取任何結束語。

Thank you. Listen, everyone on the Carvana team, I cannot thank you enough. I hope you're proud looking at this quarter. I hope you feel that. I know the last year has been a tough year. I know it is not a year that we anticipated walking into. I know that everyone's put in a ton of work. I know there were times when it felt like the payoff of that work was slow and it was hard. I hope you see this quarter as evidence that it is paying off, and it's paying off pretty quickly. I hope you also know that we still got a ton of work left to do. And all the focus that we've put in over the last year is paying off, but we've got a lot more effort to put in from here. So I think heads up, be proud, but also let's keep the pedal down, and let's keep going. Thanks, everyone, for joining the call.

謝謝。聽著，Carvana 團隊的每個人，我對你們感激不盡。我希望您對這個季度感到自豪。我希望你能感覺到。我知道去年是艱難的一年。我知道這不是我們預期的一年。我知道每個人都投入了大量的工作。我知道有時候感覺這項工作的回報很慢而且很難。我希望您將本季度視為它正在獲得回報的證據，而且回報非常快。我希望您也知道我們還有很多工作要做。我們在過去一年中投入的所有精力都得到了回報，但我們還需要付出更多努力。所以我想抬頭，自豪，但也讓我們踩下油門，繼續前進。謝謝大家加入電話會議。

The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.

會議現已結束。感謝您參加今天的演講。您現在可以斷開連接。