Carvana Co (CVNA) 2023 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good day, and welcome to the Carvana Fourth Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) Please also note that this event is being recorded today.

美好的一天，歡迎參加 Carvana 2023 年第四季財報電話會議。 （操作員說明）另請注意，今天正在錄製此事件。

I would now like to turn the conference over to Meg Kehan with Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

我現在想將會議交給投資者關係部門的梅格·科漢 (Meg Kehan)。請繼續。

Thanks, Joe. Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen, and thank you for joining us on Carvana's Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2023 Earnings Conference Call.

謝謝，喬。女士們、先生們，下午好，感謝您參加 Carvana 第四季和 2023 年全年收益電話會議。

Please note that this call will be simultaneously webcast on the Investor Relations section of the company's corporate website at investors.carvana.com. The fourth quarter shareholder letter is also posted on the IR website. Additionally, we posted a set of supplemental financial tables for Q4, which can be found on the Events & Presentations page of our IR website.

請注意，本次電話會議將同時在公司網站investors.carvana.com 的投資者關係部分進行網路直播。第四季股東信函也發佈在IR網站上。此外，我們發布了一組第四季度的補充財務表格，可以在我們的 IR 網站的活動和演示頁面上找到。

Joining me on the call today are Ernie Garcia, Chief Executive Officer; and Mark Jenkins, Chief Financial Officer.

今天和我一起參加電話會議的是執行長厄尼·加西亞 (Ernie Garcia)；和財務長馬克·詹金斯。

Before we start, I would like to remind you that the following discussions contain forward-looking statements within the meaning of the federal securities laws, including, but not limited to, Carvana's market opportunities and future financial results that involve risks and uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially from those discussed here.

在我們開始之前，我想提醒您，以下討論包含聯邦證券法含義內的前瞻性陳述，包括但不限於Carvana 的市場機會和未來財務業績，涉及可能導致風險和不確定性的風險和不確定性.實際結果與此處討論的結果有重大差異。

A detailed discussion of the material factors that cause actual results to differ from forward-looking statements can be found in the Risk Factors section of Carvana's most recent Form 10-K. The forward-looking statements and risks in this conference call are based upon current expectations as of today, and Carvana assumes no obligation to update or revise them, whether as a result of new developments or otherwise.

有關導致實際結果與前瞻性陳述不同的實質因素的詳細討論，請參閱 Carvana 最新 10-K 表格的風險因素部分。本次電話會議中的前瞻性陳述和風險是基於截至今天的當前預期，Carvana 不承擔更新或修改這些陳述的義務，無論是由於新的發展還是其他原因。

Our commentary today will include non-GAAP financial metrics. Unless otherwise specified, all references to GPU and SG&A will be to the non-GAAP metrics. All references to EBITDA will be to adjusted EBITDA. Reconciliations between GAAP and non-GAAP metrics for our reported results can be found in our shareholder letter issued today, a copy of which can be found on our IR website.

我們今天的評論將包括非公認會計準則財務指標。除非另有說明，所有對 GPU 和 SG&A 的引用均指非 GAAP 指標。所有提及 EBITDA 的內容均指調整後的 EBITDA。我們報告的業績的 GAAP 和非 GAAP 指標之間的調整可以在我們今天發布的股東信中找到，其副本可以在我們的 IR 網站上找到。

And with that said, I'd like to turn the call over to Ernie Garcia. Ernie?

話雖如此，我想把電話轉給厄尼·加西亞。厄尼？

Thanks, Meg, and thanks, everyone, for joining the call. 2023 was an exceptional year for Carvana. It was our best year from a financial perspective by a long way. Full year, GPU was nearly $1,000 better than our previous best in 2021. Our full year adjusted EBITDA per unit was over $900 higher than our previous best, and we have clear visibility to further improvements, as you can see in our outlook.

謝謝梅格，也謝謝大家加入這通通話。 2023 年對 Carvana 來說是不平凡的一年。從財務角度來看，這是我們最好的一年。全年，GPU 比我們之前的2021 年最佳成績高出近1,000 美元。我們全年調整後的每單位EBITDA 比我們之前的最佳成績高出900 美元以上，而且我們對進一步的改進有清晰的認識，正如您在我們的展望中看到的那樣。

The last 2 years have been initially characterized as negative for Carvana. In early '22, we took a quick trip from a company that was perceived to be able to do a little wrong to one that was perceived to able to do little right. That wasn't a fun transition for anyone. In each of our letters since we went public in 2017 we have signed off with, the march continues. The reason is because we believe this statement is a simple reduction of a massively important and generally underappreciated principle.

過去兩年最初對 Carvana 的影響是負面的。 22 年初，我們從一家被認為能做點什麼小錯的公司到一家被認為幾乎不能做正確事的公司進行了短暫的考察。對任何人來說，這不是一個有趣的轉變。自 2017 年上市以來，我們在每封信函中都簽署了這樣的內容：遊行仍在繼續。原因是我們認為這個陳述是對一個非常重要且普遍被低估的原則的簡單簡化。

Getting up again and again and relentlessly pushing forward is part of every success story. But that tenacity is easy to claim and hard to achieve. It's hard because the moments when you have to get back up again feel very different in the moment than when they are imagined. They feel different for every stakeholder and most importantly, they feel different for every member of the team.

一次又一次地站起來並堅持不懈地前進是每個成功故事的一部分。但這種堅韌說來容易，實現卻很難。這很難，因為當你必須重新站起來的那一刻，感覺與想像的非常不同。他們對每個利害關係人的感覺都是不同的，最重要的是，他們對團隊的每個成員都有不同的感覺。

I will never know exactly we did right to attract the team that we have, but that combination of things, which undoubtedly includes elements of luck, is almost certainly the most important thing we have ever done as a company. It's very hard for a group to go through a period like the last 2 years and not disintegrate under the pressure. We didn't disintegrate. We thought, we came together and we got better.

我永遠不會確切地知道我們吸引現有團隊的做法是否正確，但毫無疑問，這其中包括運氣的因素，這一切的結合幾乎肯定是我們作為一家公司所做過的最重要的事情。對於一個團體來說，經歷過去兩年這樣的時期而不在壓力下瓦解是非常困難的。我們沒有解體。我們想，我們走到了一起，我們會變得更好。

The fact that we got better creates room for the last 2 years to be recharacterized in the future. Time will ultimately pass judgment on the impact of the last 2 years on the Carvana story. But my personal take is that it's been our proudest period and that when the story is written, this period and our team's response will be viewed very favorably. To the Carvana team, there is nothing we can say in words that will convey the gratitude we have for the fight you've always put up, but I hope you know it's real. Thank you.

我們變得更好這一事實為過去兩年的未來重新定義創造了空間。時間最終將評判過去兩年對Carvana故事的影響。但我個人的看法是，這是我們最自豪的時期，當故事寫成時，這段時期和我們團隊的反應將會受到非常正面的評價。對於 Carvana 團隊，我們無法用言語表達我們對你們一直以來的努力的感激之情，但我希望你們知道這是真實的。謝謝。

While the success of '23 deserves a moment of reflection, the truth is we still have a lot of marching to do. Our goals are big. From here, the key questions are this. Where are we? Where are we going? And how are we going to get there? First, where are we? Today, Carvana sits in the strongest position we have ever been in for 5 reasons. I would ask that you come back to this and evaluate each element for yourself.

雖然 '23 的成功值得反思，但事實是我們還有很多工作要做。我們的目標很大。從這裡開始，關鍵問題是這樣的。我們在哪裡？我們去哪？我們怎樣才能到達那裡？首先，我們在哪裡？如今，Carvana 處於我們有史以來最強勁的位置，原因有 5 個。我想請您回過頭來親自評估每個要素。

Number one, our customers love the experience we deliver. And as we execute, these experiences are getting even better. Number two, the financial power of our business model is becoming clear every quarter and is highly differentiated. Across every line item of our income statement, there remain many significant opportunities for additional improvement. We plan to get them. Number three, our infrastructure is simply unmatched. We have built a vertically-integrated machine with 6,500 acres of land and over 500,000 parking spots that scalably, cost-effectively gets cars one customer to another more efficiently than any other machine that serves the same purpose. Number four, competitively, we have never had more separation. As we continue to execute, that gap is getting bigger. And number five, we compete in a $1 trillion market, and we currently have approximately 1% market share. The potential is obvious.

第一，我們的客戶喜歡我們提供的體驗。隨著我們的執行，這些體驗會變得更好。第二，我們業務模式的財務實力每季都變得越來越清晰，並且高度差異化。在我們損益表的每個專案中，仍有許多重大的進一步改進機會。我們計劃得到它們。第三，我們的基礎設施無與倫比。我們建造了一台垂直整合的機器，佔地6,500 英畝的土地和超過500,000 個停車位，與任何其他具有相同用途的機器相比，它能夠以可擴展、經濟高效的方式將一個客戶的汽車運送到另一個客戶。第四，在競爭中，我們從未有過如此多的分離。隨著我們繼續執行，這種差距越來越大。第五，我們在 1 兆美元的市場中競爭，目前我們擁有約 1% 的市佔率。潛力是顯而易見的。

So where are we going? From the early days of Carvana, we have never flinched on our goals. They have been and remain to become the largest and most profitable automotive retailer and to buy and sell millions of cars per year. And finally, how are we going to get there?

那我們要去哪裡？從 Carvana 成立之初起，我們就從未對我們的目標退縮過。他們已經並將繼續成為最大、最賺錢的汽車零售商，每年購買和銷售數百萬輛汽車。最後，我們如何實現這個目標？

We're going to continue to march. We are still an ambitious group with big dreams and hustle. We will keep sprinting in our goals to drive as much positive changes as we can as quickly as possible as we always have. We are also a group that is constantly learning. Every stage in Carvana's journey teaches us new lessons and adds to our toolkit. As long as that is true, and as long as we always get back up, our best day is always today. The march continues, Mark.

我們還要繼續遊行。我們仍然是一個雄心勃勃的團體，有遠大的夢想和奮鬥。我們將繼續朝著我們的目標衝刺，盡可能快地推動積極的變化。我們也是一個不斷學習的群體。 Carvana 旅程的每個階段都為我們帶來了新的教訓，並豐富了我們的工具箱。只要這是真的，只要我們總是能重新站起來，我們最好的一天就永遠是今天。遊行仍在繼續，馬克。

Thank you, Ernie, and thank you all for joining us today. Our fourth quarter highlighted the significant and sustainable progress we have made on our path to profitability. We set company records for fourth quarter and full year total GPU and adjusted EBITDA, completing a year in which we improved adjusted EBITDA by nearly $1.4 billion and positioning us well for further adjusted EBITDA growth in 2024.

謝謝你，厄尼，也謝謝大家今天加入我們。第四季凸顯了我們在獲利之路上取得的重大且可持續的進展。我們創造了第四季度和全年 GPU 總額以及調整後 EBITDA 的公司記錄，這一年我們調整後 EBITDA 提高了近 14 億美元，並為 2024 年進一步調整 EBITDA 成長做好了準備。

As part of our earnings materials this quarter, we provide a detailed look at our fourth quarter and full year results. I'll start by summarizing 3 key takeaways. First, our FY 2023 results and Q1 2024 outlook resoundingly demonstrate the ability of our online sales model to generate significant adjusted EBITDA. Based on our Q1 outlook, we expect to generate significantly above $100 million of adjusted EBITDA, equating to significantly above $1,200 per retail unit sold, despite declining used vehicle prices, industry volumes that remain below pre-pandemic levels and sizable costs of carrying capacity for future growth.

作為本季收益資料的一部分，我們詳細介紹了第四季度和全年的業績。我將先總結 3 個要點。首先，我們的 2023 財年業績和 2024 年第一季展望充分證明了我們的線上銷售模式產生顯著調整後 EBITDA 的能力。根據我們對第一季的展望，儘管二手車價格下降，行業銷售仍低於大流行前的水平，並且運輸能力的承載成本相當大，但我們預計調整後的EBITDA 將遠高於1 億美元，相當於每售出的零售單位遠高於1,200 美元。未來的成長。

Second, we are now beginning to demonstrate record adjusted EBITDA profitability while also showing early signs of growth. Based on industry data sources, we gained market share on a sequential basis in Q4 and our outlook calls for retail unit growth not only on a sequential basis but also on a year-on-year basis in Q1 and in full year 2024. Third, we have a unique and powerful infrastructure for significantly and efficiently scaling retail unit volume with excess capacity in our existing footprint to support multiples of profitable growth. We expect this growth to be paired with significant operating leverage as we leverage our underutilized overhead costs.

其次，我們現在開始展示創紀錄的調整後 EBITDA 獲利能力，同時也顯示出早期成長跡象。根據行業數據來源，我們在第四季度環比獲得了市場份額，我們的前景要求零售單位不僅環比增長，而且在第一季度和 2024 年全年同比增長。第三，我們擁有獨特而強大的基礎設施，可以顯著有效地擴大零售單位數量，利用現有足跡中的過剩產能來支持利潤的倍數成長。我們預計這種成長將伴隨著巨大的營運槓桿，因為我們利用了未充分利用的管理成本。

Moving now to our fourth quarter results. As we previously discussed, our long-term financial goal is to generate significant GAAP net income and free cash flow. In service of this goal, our management team remains focused on driving progress on a set of key non-GAAP financial metrics that are inputs into this long-term goal, including non-GAAP gross profit, non-GAAP SG&A expense and adjusted EBITDA.

現在來看我們的第四季業績。正如我們之前討論的，我們的長期財務目標是產生可觀的 GAAP 淨利潤和自由現金流。為了實現這一目標，我們的管理團隊仍然專注於推動一系列關鍵非 GAAP 財務指標的進展，這些指標是這一長期目標的投入，包括非 GAAP 毛利、非 GAAP SG&A 費用和調整後 EBITDA。

Due to the dynamic nature of the current environment, we will focus our remaining remarks on sequential changes in these metrics. Retail units sold declined by 6% sequentially, in line with our outlook and better than the industry on a sequential basis. Total revenue was $2.424 billion, a decrease of 13% sequentially.

由於當前環境的動態性質，我們將把剩下的評論重點放在這些指標的連續變化上。零售單位銷售量較上季下降 6%，與我們的預期一致，且較上季優於業界。總收入為 24.24 億美元，季減 13%。

In the fourth quarter, non-GAAP total GPU was $5,730, a sequential decrease of $666, driven primarily by the absence of nonrecurring benefits, which positively impacted Q3 and seasonality. Non-GAAP retail GPU was $2,970 in Q4 versus $2,877 in Q3, a new company record.

第四季度，非 GAAP 總 GPU 為 5,730 美元，比上一季減少 666 美元，這主要是由於缺乏非經常性福利，這對第三季度和季節性產生了積極影響。第四季非 GAAP 零售 GPU 價格為 2,970 美元，第三季為 2,877 美元，創下公司新紀錄。

Our strength in retail GPU came despite higher-than-normal fourth quarter depreciation and continues to be driven by fundamental gains in nonvehicle cost of sales, customer sourcing, inventory turn times and revenues from additional services, highlighting the value of our vertically-integrated business model. We expect non-GAAP retail GPU in Q1 to be similar to Q4, with the potential for upside.

儘管第四季度折舊高於正常水平，但我們在零售GPU 方面的實力仍然強勁，並且繼續受到非車輛銷售成本、客戶採購、庫存週轉時間和附加服務收入的基本增長的推動，凸顯了我們垂直整合業務的價值模型。我們預計第一季的非 GAAP 零售 GPU 將與第四季相似，並具有上漲潛力。

Non-GAAP wholesale GPU was $881 in Q4 versus $951 in Q3. Sequential changes in wholesale GPU were primarily driven by fourth quarter seasonality. We expect a sequential increase in wholesale GPU in Q1.

第四季非 GAAP GPU 批發價格為 881 美元，而第三季為 951 美元。 GPU 批發量的連續變化主要是由第四季度的季節性因素所推動的。我們預計第一季 GPU 批發量將季增。

Non-GAAP other GPU was $1,879 in Q4 versus $2,568 in Q3. Sequential changes in other GPU were primarily driven by selling a lower volume of loans in Q4 relative to retail units sold than in Q3, as well as lower premium on loan sales resulting from higher industry-wide loss expectations that we have since passed through to our pricing. We expect a sequential increase in other GPU in Q1.

非 GAAP 其他 GPU 第四季為 1,879 美元，而第三季為 2,568 美元。其他 GPU 的連續變化主要是由於第四季度的貸款銷售量相對於零售單位的銷售量低於第三季度，以及由於我們已經將整個行業的損失預期較高而導致貸款銷售溢價較低。價錢。我們預計第一季其他 GPU 數量將連續增加。

Non-GAAP SG&A expense was $376 million in Q4 versus $370 million in Q3. Sequential changes in non-GAAP SG&A expense were primarily driven by the absence of a small nonrecurring benefit that impacted Q3 and small incremental expenses in Q4. Finally, adjusted EBITDA was $60 million in Q4, a new fourth quarter company record.

第四季非 GAAP SG&A 費用為 3.76 億美元，第三季為 3.70 億美元。非 GAAP SG&A 費用的連續變化主要是由於沒有影響第三季度的小額非經常性福利以及第四季度的小額增量費用造成的。最後，第四季調整後 EBITDA 為 6,000 萬美元，創下公司第四季新紀錄。

I'll turn now to our first quarter outlook. While the macroeconomic and industry environment continues to be uncertain, looking toward the first quarter of 2024, we expect the following as long as the environment remains stable: one, we expect retail units sold slightly up on a year-over-year basis; and two, we expect adjusted EBITDA significantly above $100 million. Our confidence about driving significantly above $100 million of adjusted EBITDA is driven by our results so far this quarter. This outlook does not anticipate any material onetime benefits or costs in Q1.

我現在談談我們的第一季展望。儘管宏觀經濟和產業環境仍存在不確定性，但展望2024年第一季度，只要環境保持穩定，我們預期將出現以下情況：一是零售單位銷售量年比小幅成長；第二，我們預期調整後的 EBITDA 將遠高於 1 億美元。本季迄今的業績推動了我們對將調整後 EBITDA 大幅提高至 1 億美元以上的信心。這項展望預計第一季不會出現任何重大的一次性效益或成本。

For FY 2024, we expect to grow retail units sold and adjusted EBITDA compared to FY 2023. We are excited about the path we are on, and we look forward to making continued progress toward our goal of becoming the largest and most profitable auto retailer. Thank you for your attention. We'll now take questions.

與2023 財年相比，我們預計2024 財年的零售銷售和調整後EBITDA 將有所增長。我們對目前所走的道路感到興奮，並期待在成為最大、盈利能力最強的汽車零售商的目標上不斷取得進展。感謝您的關注。我們現在開始提問。

(Operator Instructions) At this time, we will take our first question, which will come from Sharon Zackfia with William Blair.

（操作員說明）此時，我們將提出第一個問題，該問題將由 Sharon Zackfia 和 William Blair 提出。

I guess a couple of questions. As you think about -- I mean I'm going to ask a question about the quarter and then something longer term. But on the quarter itself, when you're coming up with that slightly above year-over-year units sold, what are you kind of assuming for tax refund season? Because you got the bulk of the quarter ahead of you. And I'm curious as well kind of the credit typing that you did and the rate increases when that happened and kind of how you're factoring that into any kind of curtailment that we might see in trends from here?

我想有幾個問題。正如你所想，我的意思是我將問一個有關本季的問題，然後是一些更長期的問題。但就本季本身而言，當您得出略高於去年同期的銷售量時，您對退稅季有何假設？因為本季的大部分時間都在你前面。我也很好奇你所做的信用輸入以及發生這種情況時利率的增加，以及你如何將其納入我們可能在趨勢中看到的任何類型的削減中？

Sure. So I don't think we're making any unique assumptions about tax season. I think most of the information is out there, if you read it, is that taxi season probably started a little slower, less money went out as a result of the timing of the holidays. But I think there's an expectation that probably tax season will be pretty strong this year and average refunds will probably be a bit larger.

當然。因此，我認為我們沒有對納稅季節做出任何獨特的假設。我認為大部分資訊都在那裡，如果你讀過的話，那就是出租車季節可能會開始得慢一些，由於假期的時間安排，花的錢也更少。但我認為，預計今年的報稅季可能會相當強勁，平均退稅可能會更大一些。

Really kind of the first chunk of significant money, we believe, hit yesterday and last night. And I think our assumption that's driving kind of our outlook for Q1 is just anything roughly normal. I don't think we're making super aggressive assumptions there. So I don't think there's anything super notable to discuss.

我們相信，昨天和昨晚確實是第一筆重要資金。我認為我們對第一季前景的假設大致是正常的。我不認為我們在那裡做出了非常激進的假設。所以我認為沒有什麼特別值得討論的。

And then as it relates to credit tightening, I think we rolled a lot of that out over the last 6 months. We've rolled more of that out even more recently. And so I think that's largely -- or that is completely taken into account in our outlook as well.

然後，由於它與信貸緊縮有關，我認為我們在過去 6 個月中推出了許多此類措施。最近我們推出了更多這樣的內容。所以我認為這在很大程度上——或者說我們的前景也完全考慮到了這一點。

Okay. And then, Ernie, you're kind of nicely within your long-term gross margin targets. I know you're going to say there's more you can do on gross profit per car. But is this a point where if we look at the next 3 to 5 years, we're looking at more of the SG&A leverage as the driver of margin? Or do you think that 15% to 19% gross margin target is now potentially different than what you thought a few years ago?

好的。然後，厄尼，您已經很好地實現了長期毛利率目標。我知道您會說在每輛車的毛利方面您還可以做更多的事情。但是，如果我們展望未來 3 到 5 年，我們會更多地將 SG&A 槓桿視為利潤率的驅動力嗎？或者您認為現在 15% 至 19% 的毛利率目標可能與您幾年前的想法有所不同？

I think you know what I'm going to say, but I'm going to say it anyway. I think -- our view is there's opportunity everywhere. I think a useful way to break it down is kind of variable expenses and fixed expenses. I think fixed expenses, roughly the way we're managing that today is holding that in the range, and we expect that to lever as we turn to growth. And then I think in variable expenses, we still absolutely believe that there are gains to be had. I think the teams have been doing an incredible job. I think if you look at the trajectory of those numbers, it's very strong. And I think we're excited about a lot of initiatives that we still have left.

我想你知道我要說什麼，但我還是要說。我認為——我們的觀點是機會無所不在。我認為分解它的一個有用方法是可變費用和固定費用。我認為固定支出，大致就是我們今天管理的方式，將其保持在一定範圍內，我們預計隨著我們轉向成長，它將發揮槓桿作用。然後我認為在可變費用方面，我們仍然絕對相信會有收益。我認為團隊做得非常出色。我認為如果你看看這些數字的軌跡，你會發現它非常強大。我認為我們對許多尚未完成的舉措感到興奮。

I think in many of those areas, prioritizing those initiatives is still one of our bigger issues internally, just making sure that we're doing one thing at a time and not trying to take on too much at any given time. I think from a gross profit per unit perspective, there's also opportunity there. And I think that's true in basically every line item. I would kind of probably characterize those as fundamental opportunities, meaning regardless of where we choose to price things like rates or the vehicle, we believe we can be more efficient in all those areas.

我認為在其中許多領域，優先考慮這些舉措仍然是我們內部更大的問題之一，只是確保我們一次只做一件事，而不是試圖在任何特定時間承擔太多事情。我認為從單位毛利潤的角度來看，那裡也存在著機會。我認為基本上每個項目都是如此。我可能會將這些描述為基本機會，這意味著無論我們選擇在哪裡對利率或車輛等定價，我們相信我們可以在所有這些領域提高效率。

And I think that those -- that can take the form of continued enhancement in credit scoring and credit pricing, credit structuring and innovations that we've been recently rolling out internally that allow us to more precisely kind of connect our credit pricing structuring and risk assessments to individual loans. It can take the form of getting smarter about how we're buying cars, the data that we're then taking to evaluate the value of those cars, a number of things that we're doing at the point of receipt of the cars to make sure that we're cutting out the biggest losers. So I think there's a number of initiatives there as well that are pretty exciting.

我認為，這些可以採取持續增強信用評分和信用定價、信用結構和創新的形式，我們最近在內部推出了這些創新，使我們能夠更精確地將信用定價結構和風險聯繫起來。對個人貸款的評估。它可以採取更聰明的形式，讓我們了解如何購買汽車，然後使用數據來評估這些汽車的價值，以及我們在收到汽車時所做的許多事情確保我們排除掉最大的輸家。所以我認為那裡還有一些非常令人興奮的舉措。

And then I think we remain in this period of trying to make sure that we're driving efficiencies. And I think despite that, we're obviously looking forward to a very strong Q1 from both a financial perspective and from showing a little bit of growth for the first time in a while. So overall, I think we are just very excited about the way the team has responded in the last couple of years. I think -- it was pretty hard to imagine from the perspective of 2 years ago where we're sitting today. I think it was hard to imagine from the perspective of a year ago where we're sitting today. And I think that we feel like we've got a lot of room to continue to make improvements, and we look forward to continuing to make those improvements. So I think across the board, we're looking for fundamental gains.

然後我認為我們仍處於努力確保提高效率的時期。我認為儘管如此，我們顯然期待第一季的財務表現非常強勁，並且在一段時間內首次出現一點成長。總的來說，我認為我們對團隊在過去幾年中的反應感到非常興奮。我認為，從兩年前的角度來看，我們今天所處的位置是很難想像的。我認為從一年前的角度很難想像我們今天所處的位置。我認為我們覺得我們有很大的空間可以繼續改進，我們期待繼續做出這些改進。所以我認為，從整體來看，我們正在尋求基本利益。

And congrats on a great 2023.

恭喜您度過了美好的 2023 年。

Thank you.

謝謝。

And our next question will come from Adam Jonas with Morgan Stanley.

我們的下一個問題將來自摩根士丹利的亞當喬納斯。

So you're guiding to substantially above $100 million for the first quarter, obviously, and that compares to a small loss [odd-million] EBITDA on your definition loss prior year. So I'm just -- I'm not asking you to guide specifically for the rest of the year, but your comment of growing full year EBITDA. I mean you're already at $120 million or $130 million kind of ahead of that statement just with all what you see in the first quarter. So my question is, could you express the confidence that the remainder of the year you could at least grow EBITDA from Q2 to Q4? Of course, you don't have to answer the question. I just wanted to see if you're willing to go there.

因此，顯然，您預計第一季的目標遠高於 1 億美元，而相較之下，您上一年的定義損失為小幅虧損 [數百萬] EBITDA。所以我只是——我並不是要求您對今年剩餘時間進行具體指導，而是要求您對全年 EBITDA 成長的評論。我的意思是，根據您在第一季看到的情況，您在該聲明之前就已經達到了 1.2 億或 1.3 億美元。所以我的問題是，您是否有信心在今年剩餘時間裡至少可以將 EBITDA 從第二季度增長到第四季度？當然，你不必回答這個問題。我只是想看看你是否願意去那裡。

Yes. No. Well, I appreciate the question. I appreciate you handing us out at the end of it. But I think got to stick with our guidance. We want to make sure that we stay disciplined on that. We are extremely excited about where we are. I think the trends of the business are very, very strong. I think we obviously had a great '23 from an EBITDA perspective, but the trends that kind of underlie the sum of the year were also very positive and those trends remain, and that's what we see heading into Q1. And I think now the ball is in our hand, and we just got to go execute. And if we keep executing, I think there's pretty exciting things in front of us, but we got to go make those things happen, and we'll continue to update you every quarter.

是的。不，嗯，我很欣賞這個問題。我很感謝你在最後把我們交給我們。但我認為必須堅持我們的指導。我們希望確保我們在這方面保持紀律。我們對我們所處的位置感到非常興奮。我認為該行業的趨勢非常非常強勁。我認為，從 EBITDA 的角度來看，我們顯然在 23 年取得了出色的成績，但構成全年總和的趨勢也非常積極，而且這些趨勢仍然存在，這就是我們在第一季看到的情況。我認為現在球在我們手中，我們只需要執行。如果我們繼續執行，我認為我們面前會有非常令人興奮的事情，但我們必須去實現這些事情，我們將繼續每季向您通報最新情況。

Okay. Well, Ernie, I appreciate that. I'll interpret that as you're not giving me any -- you're not calling out any reason why you wouldn't be able to grow EBITDA in the remainder of the year, even though you're not giving a formal guide. That's just my interpretation of that. You would call something out if you felt there was something beyond the quarter that you felt was prudent to call out of the headwind, just my interpretation.

好的。嗯，厄尼，我很感激。我會將其解釋為您沒有給我任何資訊 - 即使您沒有提供正式的指導，您也沒有說出為什麼您在今年剩餘時間內無法增加 EBITDA 的任何原因。這只是我的解釋。如果您認為本季之外有一些事情是您認為可以謹慎地從逆風中發出的，那麼您會發出一些聲音，這只是我的解釋。

Well, if we comment on your interpretation, then I mean this starts to get really met and really fast. You've got your interpretation. We're going to keep marching, we're excited.

好吧，如果我們對你的解釋發表評論，那麼我的意思是，這開始真正得到滿足並且很快得到滿足。你已經有了你的解讀。我們將繼續前進，我們很興奮。

Our next question will come from John Healy with Northcoast Research.

我們的下一個問題將來自北海岸研究中心的約翰·希利。

Ernie, I was hoping you could talk just a little bit about affordability. I would love to get your thoughts on where affordability sits today for your customer and the monthly payment that they're looking at. And theoretically, if we do get with the couple of cuts by the Fed, what would be the sweet spot for you guys? Is there a monthly payment you'd like to see where you'd say that would be the real sweet spot for us to be able to grow same-store sales and show a good margin? I would just love for you to kind of comment on the interest rate environment and what would be ideal for you guys.

厄尼，我希望你能談談負擔能力。我很想了解您對客戶目前的承受能力以及他們所考慮的每月付款的看法。從理論上講，如果我們確實接受聯準會的幾次降息，對你們來說最有利的地方是什麼？您是否希望每月付款，您認為這對我們來說是真正的最佳點，能夠增加同店銷售額並顯示良好的利潤率？我希望你能對利率環境以及對您們來說最理想的利率環境發表評論。

Sure. Well, maybe we'll start with a couple of sort of data points. So I think roughly speaking, if you -- like inflation adjust car prices against all other goods just using CPI, car prices themselves are probably still on the order of, give or take, 10% higher than other goods in the economy. So I think that suggests on a price level, there's potentially room for that to continue to moderate over time.

當然。好吧，也許我們將從幾個數據點開始。所以我認為粗略地說，如果你像通貨膨脹一樣，只使用 CPI 來調整汽車價格與所有其他商品的價格，那麼汽車價格本身可能仍然比經濟中的其他商品高 10%。因此，我認為這表明價格水平隨著時間的推移可能有繼續放緩的空間。

I think if you look at monthly payments, which compound that and the moves in interest rates. Again, like high-level swag, monthly payments are probably on the order of more like 20% higher relative to other goods than they were pre-pandemic. So I think that also kind of points a little bit in the direction of room for moderation. But we'll see. I think so far, that model of post shortage, there's usually a glut and car prices should probably normalize relative to other goods.

我認為如果你看看每月付款，這會加劇這種情況以及利率的變化。同樣，與高級贈品一樣，與其他商品相比，每月付款可能比大流行前高出 20% 左右。所以我認為這也有點指向適度的空間。但我們會看到。我認為到目前為止，這種後短缺的模式通常會出現供過於求，汽車價格相對於其他商品可能應該正常化。

So far, that's been pretty predictive for the last 2 years. The speed is always hard, but that's at least kind of predict the direction. I think that we're seeing a lot more new car incentives and aggressiveness right now, which probably points a little bit to more support for that kind of direction in the future, but that's a hard thing to get exactly right. I think, generally speaking, for us, probably lower is better. I'm not sure that there's a level that we're trying to get to. I think it makes cars more affordable for customers. It pulls more people back into the market.

到目前為止，過去兩年的情況相當有預測性。速度總是很難，但這至少可以預測方向。我認為我們現在看到了更多的新車激勵和積極性，這可能表明未來對這種方向有更多支持，但這很難完全正確。我認為，一般來說，對我們來說，可能越低越好。我不確定我們是否想要達到某個水平。我認為這會讓消費者更買得起汽車。它吸引了更多的人回到市場。

And generally speaking, as we've discussed in the past, I think we do exist -- our business is sitting between the wholesale market and the retail market. And so what really matters for us is that spread. And we have kind of over the last 2 years, we've had kind of the expected case scenario, I would say, but also probably the best case scenario where you've seen depreciation, which made cars more affordable, but you also saw the wholesale market anticipate that depreciation and so margins have been pretty stable. I think if you look at our retail margins, we've been near in the 2,800-plus area for the last 3 quarters, and we expect it to be in a similar spot to maybe even having upside in Q1.

總的來說，正如我們過去討論的那樣，我認為我們確實存在——我們的業務位於批發市場和零售市場之間。因此，對我們來說真正重要的是傳播。在過去的兩年裡，我們有一些預期的情況，我想說，但也可能是最好的情況，你看到了折舊，這使得汽車更便宜，但你也看到了批發市場預計會出現貶值，因此利潤率一直相當穩定。我認為，如果你看看我們的零售利潤率，過去 3 個季度我們一直在 2,800 多美元的區域附近，我們預計它會處於類似的位置，甚至可能在第一季出現上漲。

And so I think that, that suggests that despite the fact this depreciation has been occurring and making cars more affordable for our customers, our margins have held in there and been pretty steady. And so overall, I think that's playing out the way that we would like for it to and probably the way that we should have expected it to.

因此，我認為，這表明儘管事實上這種貶值一直在發生，並使汽車對我們的客戶來說更便宜，但我們的利潤率一直保持在那裡並且相當穩定。總的來說，我認為這正在按照我們希望的方式進行，也可能是我們應該期望的方式。

Got it. That's helpful. And then just one follow-up. There's been some market chatter out there about you guys are playing an active role in helping one of your former competitors liquidate. Can you talk about what that might mean for the business in Q1 or really how the economics of those units being moved might flow through the P&L for you guys?

知道了。這很有幫助。然後只有一個後續行動。市場上有一些傳言稱，你們在幫助前競爭對手之一清算方面發揮了積極作用。您能否談談這對第一季的業務可能意味著什麼，或者這些被轉移的單位的經濟效益如何真正影響您們的損益表？

Sure. I can take that one. The simple answer is we don't expect any material impacts from acquiring units in bulk from competitors. We did acquire a portfolio of about 2,800 units in January from an industry player that was selling their units. And so those 2,800 units, I'd expect us to sell them over the next couple of quarters. We did acquire the units in full. So those will be retail units sold when they sell. There'll be gross revenue and generate retail gross profit when they sell. But given the small size of the portfolio that we acquired, would not expect it to have a material impact on either retail units sold over the combination of the next couple of quarters, including Q1 or on retail GPU in either those quarters.

當然。我可以接受那個。簡單的答案是，我們預期從競爭對手批量收購單位不會產生任何重大影響。我們確實在一月份從一家正在出售其單位的行業參與者那裡收購了約 2,800 個單位的投資組合。因此，我預計我們將在接下來的幾個季度內出售這 2,800 套。我們確實全額收購了這些單位。因此，這些將是在出售時出售的零售單位。出售時會有總收入並產生零售毛利。但考慮到我們收購的投資組合規模較小，預計它不會對未來幾季（包括第一季）銷售的零售單位或這兩季的零售 GPU 產生重大影響。

Our next question will come from Nick Jones with Citizens.

我們的下一個問題將來自尼克瓊斯和公民。

Two, if I can. One, as we think about the blending of Phase 2 and 3 and maybe the algorithm for growth from here, is there a level of unit economics where you maybe start to hold and focus more on top line growth? Or is the goal really to consistently drive kind of top line growth and unit economics as you kind of approach your long-term targets?

兩個，如果可以的話。第一，當我們考慮第二階段和第三階段的混合以及也許從這裡開始的成長演算法時，是否存在一定程度的單位經濟效益，使您可以開始持有並更多地關注營收成長？或者，當您接近長期目標時，目標真的是持續推動營收成長和單位經濟效益嗎？

I think the goal is to continually get better everywhere. I think we've benefited a bit in a way over the last 2 years from being able to kind of simplify our goals and focus just on improving efficiency throughout the business. And I think the primary form that benefit has taken is it just kind of simplified the number of moving pieces in the business and has allowed us to make a lot of progress really fast. That said, I do think that there remains a lot of room for improvement. And as we said earlier, I think one of the biggest issues we deal with internally is just trying to make sure that we're not trying to bite off kind of too many projects because there's still a lot of projects that are pretty exciting. So I think we will continue absolutely to work on projects that we expect to drive efficiency across both variable costs and gross profit.

我認為我們的目標是不斷變得更好。我認為在過去的兩年裡，我們在某種程度上受益於能夠簡化我們的目標並專注於提高整個業務的效率。我認為收益的主要形式是它簡化了業務中移動部件的數量，並使我們能夠快速取得許多進展。也就是說，我確實認為還有很大的進步空間。正如我們之前所說，我認為我們內部處理的最大問題之一就是確保我們不會試圖放棄太多項目，因為仍然有很多項目非常令人興奮。因此，我認為我們絕對會繼續致力於那些我們希望提高變動成本和毛利效率的項目。

We also do expect as we kind of head into that transition to start to focus a little bit more on projects that are supportive of growth, and that's obviously exciting. I think given where the business model is, it's very clear how powerful that is to the financial model of the business. And we think we're incredibly well positioned for that. We think that the business is in the strongest place it's ever been. We think our customer offering is stronger than it's ever been. We think our infrastructure is ready to support this growth. We think the work that it takes to grow is meaningfully less than it's been in the past.

我們也確實期望，當我們進入這種轉變時，我們會開始更多地關注支持成長的項目，這顯然是令人興奮的。我認為考慮到商業模式的位置，很明顯它對企業的財務模式有多強大。我們認為我們在這方面處於非常有利的位置。我們認為該業務正處於有史以來最強勁的狀態。我們認為我們的客戶服務比以往任何時候都更強大。我們認為我們的基礎設施已準備好支持這種成長。我們認為，成長所需的工作比過去少了很多。

I mean just even to throw some stats out there. Today, we're moving cars inbound to our inspection centers, approximately 20% fewer miles than we were a year ago. Outbound, we're moving cars 30% fewer miles. That's because we've got more of these facilities, and we've integrated intelligently into our scheduling systems to make better choices there. On in-market ops, we're now pairing almost 50% of activities, which means when we deliver a car to a customer, on the way back, we are picking up another car to get more efficient. I think that's up 75% year-over-year as we put time and effort into building those systems to make them smarter and building the scheduling systems to make it more likely that we see overlap. That gets better as we get more density in the network and there's still a lot of room to improve there, across customer care.

我的意思是甚至只是拋出一些統計數據。如今，我們正在將汽車運入檢查中心，行駛里程比一年前減少了約 20%。出境時，我們減少了 30% 的汽車行駛里程。這是因為我們擁有更多的此類設施，並且我們已智慧地整合到我們的調度系統中，以便在那裡做出更好的選擇。在市場營運中，我們現在幾乎 50% 的活動都是配對的，這意味著當我們向客戶交付一輛車時，在返回的路上，我們會拿起另一輛車以提高效率。我認為這一數字同比增長了 75%，因為我們投入了時間和精力來建立這些系統，使它們變得更加智能，並建立調度系統，使我們更有可能看到重疊。隨著我們網路密度的增加，情況會變得更好，而且在客戶服務方面仍有很大的改進空間。

Our advocates are roughly twice as efficient as they were in the past in terms of number of sales per advocate per period. The same is true with type of registration with better performance metrics in that group that are now extremely high quality. So I think we're really well positioned to head into growth when it's time. And I think what we've got to do now as a company is we've got to figure out just how effectively we can manage that transition, how good of a job we can do maintaining the accountability that we had over the last couple of years by keeping things simple as we do head into a more complex optimization equation of both growth and efficiency. But the opportunity is everywhere.

就每個倡導者每個時期的銷售數量而言，我們的倡導者的效率大約是過去的兩倍。對於該組中具有更好性能指標的註冊類型也是如此，這些指標現在品質非常高。因此，我認為我們確實處於有利位置，可以在時機成熟時實現成長。我認為，作為一家公司，我們現在要做的是，我們必須弄清楚我們能夠如何有效地管理這一轉變，我們能夠在維持過去幾年的問責制方面做得有多好。多年來，當當我們進入更複雜的成長和效率優化方程式時，我們保持簡單。但機會無處不在。

The question is how well we execute. The question is not where we're going. We have every intention of selling millions of cars. We've never been better positioned for it, and that is absolutely what we intend to do. But now we've got to figure out how quickly we can do it and how efficient we can be along the way.

問題是我們執行得如何。問題不在於我們要去哪裡。我們的目標是銷售數百萬輛汽車。我們從未有過如此好的定位，這絕對是我們打算做的。但現在我們必須弄清楚我們能多快做到這一點以及我們在過程中的效率如何。

And maybe just a follow-up on that. I think you listed off kind of the 4 buckets you highlighted in your vertically-integrated, technology-driven platform from the shareholder letter of the customer sourcing, inbound transport, inspection reconditioning with distance and delivery, do one of those stand out as one of the biggest drivers? And are there any of those whether it's kind of more wood to chop than others in terms of driving efficiency?

也許只是後續行動。我認為您從客戶採購的股東信中列出了您在垂直整合、技術驅動的平台中強調的 4 個類別，包括入站運輸、距離和交付的檢查整修，其中之一是否脫穎而出？最大的驅動力？就駕駛效率而言，是否比其他車要砍更多的木頭？

I can take that one. So I actually think there's opportunities in all of those areas. I don't think we feel like we're done with any of those. I think we've hit on these types of things at various points, but clear opportunities in inbound transport as we expand the number of sites where we're doing reconditioning, which brings down inbound cost and inbound days on the inbound transport side.

我可以接受那個。所以我實際上認為所有這些領域都有機會。我不認為我們覺得我們已經完成了其中任何一個。我認為我們在各個方面都遇到過此類問題，但隨著我們擴大進行翻新的地點的數量，入境運輸方面存在明顯的機會，這降低了入境運輸方面的入境成本和入境天數。

I think in the reconditioning centers, they've made tremendous gains implementing new technology, new processes, standardizing processes across locations, rolling out our proprietary Carli system across our nationwide infrastructure. that team is not done. That team still sees meaningful opportunity to further develop our technology, refine our processes and standardize and drive execution across our nationwide set of locations.

我認為在修復中心，他們在實施新技術、新流程、跨地點標準化流程、在全國基礎設施中推出我們專有的 Carli 系統方面取得了巨大的成果。該團隊尚未完成。團隊仍然看到了進一步開發我們的技術、完善我們的流程以及標準化和推動我們全國各地地點執行的有意義的機會。

I think in outbound transport, just like the others it's the same story, pairing technology with process excellence. That's the area where the teams have been focused up to this point, made tremendous gains. And I think they're also looking at their business today, and saying, yes, we still see further opportunity to again. And then on the sourcing side, just like other area, we've got teams that are working to every day pull in more data sources, every day, refine our algorithms -- for putting the optimal valuation of every single car that we look at.

我認為在出境運輸中，就像其他運輸一樣，也是同樣的故事，將科技與卓越的流程結合。這是團隊迄今為止一直關注的領域，並且取得了巨大的成果。我認為他們今天也在審視自己的業務，並說，是的，我們仍然看到了更多的機會。然後在採購方面，就像其他領域一樣，我們的團隊每天都在努力獲取更多資料來源，每天完善我們的演算法 - 為我們所關注的每輛汽車提供最佳估值。

And that's, I think, millions of cars that we see and are collecting data on every single day. So I think the main takeaway there is we've made tremendous gains, but the teams that are working on each of those areas see opportunities for meaningful gains from here.

我認為，這就是我們每天看到並收集數據的數百萬輛汽車。因此，我認為主要的收穫是我們已經取得了巨大的成果，但是致力於每個領域的團隊都看到了從這裡獲得有意義的成果的機會。

And our next question will come from John Colantuoni with Jefferies.

我們的下一個問題將由傑弗里斯的約翰·科蘭托尼提出。

Great. First one on retail GPU. Mark mentioned revenue from additional services as one of the drivers of strong GPU in the quarter. Can you just detail what those additional services are and how much they're contributing to 4Q and 1Q GPU? And to the extent you could sort of comment on the sustainability of those additional services.

偉大的。第一個針對零售 GPU 的。 Mark 提到附加服務的營收是本季 GPU 強勁的推動因素之一。您能否詳細說明一下這些附加服務是什麼以及它們對第 4 季和第 1 季 GPU 的貢獻有多大？在某種程度上，您可以對這些附加服務的可持續性發表評論。

And second, I've noticed sort of you recently started incorporating EBITDA per unit into your public documents. Curious if that's just a reflection of your greater operational focus on profitability or if that's sort of nudging people externally to start assessing the business on that KPI more.

其次，我注意到你們最近開始將單位 EBITDA 納入你們的公開文件中。我很好奇這是否只是反映了您在營運上更加註重盈利能力，或者這是否在某種程度上促使外部人員開始更多地根據該 KPI 評估業務。

Sure. Yes, I can take both of those. So let me start with retail GPU. So here I think the main idea is we have a unique business model that allows us to take cars that are reconditioned, acquired and stored around the country and make them available to customers in our 300 markets plus nationwide. And so for shorter distance shipments where customer finds a car that's perfect for them that's nearby to them. We have free shipping and in most of the markets we operate based on our data. We have the largest availability of free shipping inventory in those markets, the ones that we have looked at.

當然。是的，我可以同時接受這兩個。那麼讓我從零售 GPU 開始。因此，我認為這裡的主要想法是我們擁有獨特的商業模式，使我們能夠在全國各地翻新、採購和儲存汽車，並將其提供給我們 300 個市場以及全國範圍內的客戶。因此，對於短距離運輸，客戶可以在附近找到最適合他們的汽車。我們提供免費送貨服務，並且在大多數市場中我們都根據我們的數據進行運作。在我們研究過的這些市場中，我們擁有最多的免費送貨庫存。

However, for longer shipments, we've been -- we do use the opportunity of making that selection available to also generate additional revenue, just from long distance, the shipping services provided to customers. And so I think that's where the additional revenue from additional services is really from our ability to move cars long distances efficiently around the country and make much wider selection available to customers as a result of that.

然而，對於較長的運輸，我們確實利用提供該選擇的機會來產生額外的收入，只是從長途運輸服務中向客戶提供。因此，我認為，額外服務帶來的額外收入實際上來自我們在全國範圍內有效長距離運輸汽車的能力，並因此為客戶提供了更廣泛的選擇。

Now in terms of how it flows through to retail GPU, that's actually been fairly steady, I would say, over the last 3 or 4 quarters. It really hasn't been moving around much sequentially, maybe up or down a little bit, but nothing that's worth calling out. I think it's more when you compare to sort of our pre-pandemic model. We weren't generating as much revenue from having that nationwide logistics network as we are today. So that's the answer to question one.

現在就它如何流向零售 GPU 而言，我想說，在過去的 3 或 4 個季度中，這實際上相當穩定。它確實沒有按順序移動太多，也許向上或向下一點，但沒有什麼值得指出的。我認為，與我們的大流行前模型相比，這更多。我們當時並沒有像今天那樣透過全國性的物流網絡獲得那麼多的收入。這就是問題一的答案。

On question two, so in my prepared remarks, I mentioned the idea of being significantly above adjusted EBITDA per unit in Q1. And I think the I think my motivation for mentioning that was people for a long time didn't -- they didn't believe, just to say it candidly, that a vertically integrated e-commerce online sales model could work. And now we're sitting here in the first quarter of 2024, and I think we're very confidently saying we expect to drive significantly more than $100 million of adjusted EBITDA or significantly more than $1,200 per unit of adjusted EBITDA in the first quarter. And we're also doing that in an environment where rates are at multi-decade highs, which I think makes it even a bit more impressive.

關於第二個問題，在我準備好的發言中，我提到了第一季每單位調整後 EBITDA 大幅高於調整後的想法。我認為我提到這一點的動機是人們很長一段時間不相信——坦白說，他們不相信垂直整合的電子商務線上銷售模式可以發揮作用。現在我們正處於 2024 年第一季度，我認為我們非常自信地說，我們預計第一季度的調整後 EBITDA 將大幅超過 1 億美元，或每單位調整後 EBITDA 大幅超過 1,200 美元。我們也是在利率處於數十年高點的環境中這樣做的，我認為這讓它更令人印象深刻。

We're doing it in an environment where the used vehicle industry as a whole is still notably down relative to pre-pandemic levels, which I think makes that adjusted EBITDA generation even more impressive. Moreover, we're doing it while also carrying significant cost of excess capacity that we view as a huge benefit for us as we look forward because we're generating a lot of adjusted EBITDA now at a volume that is far below what our capacity can support from an overhead cost and fixed infrastructure perspective. And so I just think when you start layering all of those things on top of each other, it gets us very excited about where the model can go.

我們是在二手車行業整體仍顯著低於大流行前水平的環境中進行的，我認為這使得調整後的 EBITDA 產生更加令人印象深刻。此外，我們這樣做的同時也承擔了產能過剩的巨大成本，我們認為這對我們來說是一個巨大的好處，因為我們現在正在產生大量調整後的 EBITDA，其數量遠低於我們的產能。從間接費用和固定基礎設施的角度提供支援。所以我認為，當你開始將所有這些東西疊加在一起時，我們會對模型的發展方向感到非常興奮。

I think it resoundingly answers the questions about whether or not this is a long-term profitable business model, whether or not this is a long-term sustainable business model. I think -- that's one of the things, as I mentioned, that I think we're just -- we're feeling really good about and why I called out that one data point in my prepared remarks.

我認為它有力地回答了這是否是一個長期盈利的商業模式，是否是一個長期可持續的商業模式的問題。我認為，正如我所提到的，這是我們感覺非常好的事情之一，也是我在準備好的發言中提到這一數據點的原因。

Who does the level of Prof. Jenkins takes the mic. Carvana is celebrating right now.

詹金斯教授的水平誰來拿麥克風。卡瓦納現在正在慶祝。

And our next question here will come from Seth Basham with Wedbush Securities.

我們的下一個問題將來自 Wedbush Securities 的 Seth Basham。

Just want to follow up on an earlier question, just thinking about the framework for retail GPU moving forward. So obviously, as you start to grow, there will be some costs associated with that growth. Very limited growth you're signaling for the first quarter in terms of retail units. But beyond that, as you really ramp, will the cost of growth outweigh all the efficiencies you continue to expect to get in 2024 within the retail GPU line?

只是想跟進之前的問題，思考一下零售 GPU 的未來框架。顯然，當你開始成長時，就會產生一些與成長相關的成本。您表示第一季零售單位的成長非常有限。但除此之外，當您真正實現成長時，成長成本是否會超過您期望在 2024 年零售 GPU 系列中獲得的所有效率？

Yes. So let's focus in on incremental costs associated with growth in retail cost of sales. So I do think there are some costs associated with higher growth rates and retail cost of sales. I think some of them take the form of just direct hiring and training expenses as you're building up staffing, you're spending money on hiring, training new employees. I think a little bit of it takes the form of newer employees typically take a little time to get up to speed and become as efficient as more tenured employees. And so I think that can have a small impact.

是的。因此，讓我們專注於與零售銷售成本成長相關的增量成本。因此，我確實認為較高的成長率和零售銷售成本會帶來一些成本。我認為其中一些採取直接招聘和培訓費用的形式，因為你正在建立人員配置，你花錢招募和培訓新員工。我認為其中一點是新員工通常需要一點時間才能跟上並變得與長期員工一樣有效率。所以我認為這可能會產生很小的影響。

I think another dynamic is you may outsource more services for a period of time as you're ramping up. Now in our case, looking forward, I would not expect outsourcing more services to take the form of full car reconditioning by partners, which is something we did in 2021. Don't anticipate that. But on smaller services, on a select basis, I -- you could do that. So I give that detailed list just so you have a clear view of what we view as the some of the incremental costs associated with ramping and it's really those 3 buckets.

我認為另一個動態是，隨著業務的發展，您可能會在一段時間內外包更多服務。現在就我們的情況而言，展望未來，我不會期望外包更多服務以合作夥伴進行全面汽車翻新的形式，這是我們在 2021 年所做的事情。不要期待這種情況。但對於較小的服務，在選擇的基礎上，我——你可以這樣做。因此，我給出了詳細的列表，以便您可以清楚地了解我們所認為的與提升相關的一些增量成本，實際上就是這 3 個部分。

Now let's talk a little bit about sizing. Putting all those together, we do not view those as being a particularly significant part of the overall retail GPU story. There are some offsets, for example, getting leverage on fixed facilities expenses in inspection and reconditioning centers, other fixed expenses in those centers. So that's a partial offset to some of the things that I mentioned. And so I think the main takeaway is there are some frictions. However, we do not expect them to be of a particularly large size, just based on the progress that we've made in improving our technology, improving our processes, having a broad base of existing inspection and reconditioning centers from which to build. And so that would be my full set of thoughts on that specific question.

現在我們來談談尺寸。將所有這些放在一起，我們並不認為它們是整個零售 GPU 故事中特別重要的部分。有一些抵銷措施，例如，利用檢查和翻新中心的固定設施費用以及這些中心的其他固定費用。所以這是對我提到的一些事情的部分抵消。所以我認為主要的結論是存在一些摩擦。然而，我們並不期望它們的規模特別大，只是基於我們在改進技術、改進流程以及擁有廣泛的現有檢測和修復中心基礎方面取得的進展。這就是我對這個具體問題的完整想法。

That's helpful. And as you work to acquire more inventory without wholesale purchases from -- for competitors, would you expect your pure metal margin to improve going forward?

這很有幫助。當您努力獲取更多庫存而不從競爭對手那裡批發採購時，您是否預計您的純金屬利潤率會提高？

So I'm not sure I caught that question.

所以我不確定我是否明白了這個問題。

Just thinking about the other component within retail GPU, just your spread between what you're selling cars core and you're buying them for probably getting a nice benefit from some of the inventory you're acquiring as we hike prices in the near term. Beyond the near term, would you expect continued expansion there?

只需考慮零售GPU 中的其他組件，您所銷售的汽車核心產品與您所購買的汽車核心產品之間的價差，可能會從您購買的一些庫存中獲得不錯的收益，因為我們在短期內提高了價格。在短期內，您預計那裡會繼續擴張嗎？

Got it. Yes. So I hit the point about the bulk -- we made a bulk purchase of vehicles from a competitor in January. We purchased about 2,800 units that we expect to sell the majority of over the next couple of quarters. We do not expect a material retail GPU impact from that. There could be some small impact. But just given the size of the portfolio, we do not expect a meaningful impact from that.

知道了。是的。所以我談到了大宗的問題——我們在一月份從競爭對手那裡大量購買了車輛。我們購買了約 2,800 套，預計在接下來的幾季內售出大部分。我們預計這不會對零售 GPU 產生重大影響。可能會有一些小的影響。但考慮到投資組合的規模，我們預計不會產生有意義的影響。

Then the -- on the question about metal margin more generally. I mean Ernie called this out early in the call, but with our outlook of being close to Q4 levels with upside or the potential for upside in Q1, that's going to be 4 consecutive quarters at a pretty substantial retail GPU level. So obviously, with 4 full quarters at a very strong level, we're feeling really good about the way that we're executing from a retail GPU perspective. We talked about a lot of the fundamentals that are driving that. We talked about -- obviously, all the progress in the reconditioning centers. We're doing a great job sourcing cars for customers. We really normalize inventory turn times. We're generating revenue from additional services, taking advantage of our national logistics network. And so I think we obviously have established a very strong track record on retail GPU with our 3 final quarters of 2023 and our outlook for Q1.

然後是關於更普遍的金屬利潤問題。我的意思是，Ernie 在電話會議的早期就指出了這一點，但考慮到我們的前景是接近第四季度的水平，並且第一季度有上行或上行的潛力，這將是連續4 個季度處於相當可觀的零售GPU 水準。顯然，整個 4 個季度都處於非常強勁的水平，從零售 GPU 的角度來看，我們對我們的執行方式感覺非常好。我們討論了許多推動這一趨勢的基本原理。顯然，我們談論了修復中心的所有進展。我們在為客戶採購汽車方面做得很好。我們確實使庫存週轉時間正常化。我們利用我們的全國物流網絡，透過附加服務創造收入。因此，我認為透過 2023 年最後 3 個季度以及對第一季的展望，我們顯然已經在零售 GPU 方面建立了非常強勁的記錄。

And our next question will come from Rajat Gupta with JPMorgan.

我們的下一個問題將來自摩根大通的 Rajat Gupta。

Great. I'll take a couple as well. Just to follow up on a couple of the previous questions around growth. It looks like you've obviously rightsized your cost structure to a large degree. You've comfortably exceeded your long-term model, at least on a gross profit per unit basis. And obviously, the margins look low because of where prices are, so why wouldn't the company press the pedal on growth here a little more meaningfully?

偉大的。我也帶幾個。只是為了跟進之前關於增長的幾個問題。看起來您顯然已經在很大程度上調整了成本結構。您已經輕鬆地超越了長期模型，至少在單位毛利的基礎上是如此。顯然，由於價格的原因，利潤率看起來很低，那麼該公司為什麼不更有意義地踩下成長踏板呢？

Even if GPUs did come back somewhat and you're able to leverage fixed cost from your industry backdrop that's a factor in the decision or in consideration, but you just willing to go a little slowly and keep testing how the business is responding. Just curious of the thought process there, and I have a quick follow-up on the finance business.

即使 GPU 確實有所回歸，並且您能夠利用行業背景中的固定成本（這是決策或考慮的一個因素），但您只是願意放慢腳步並繼續測試業務的回應方式。只是對那裡的思維過程感到好奇，我對金融業務進行了快速跟進。

Sure. Well, I think the first thing we want to do is we want to kind of complete the projects that we've got underway today. And I think we have a number of projects underway today that we expect to continue to drive efficiency. So I think we want to see that through. I think the reason we had to provide this frame earlier, our goal is to sell millions of cars and to be the largest, most profitable automotive retailer because that's the place where we're hanging. I think the question then is how fast are we going to get there.

當然。嗯，我認為我們要做的第一件事就是完成今天正在進行的項目。我認為我們今天正在進行許多項目，我們希望這些項目能繼續提高效率。所以我認為我們希望看到這一點。我認為我們必須更早提供這個框架的原因是，我們的目標是銷售數百萬輛汽車，並成為最大、最賺錢的汽車零售商，因為那是我們掛在的地方。我認為接下來的問題是我們要多快才能到達那裡。

And I do think that there are reasons to believe that we should be able to grow at faster rates and be very efficient just given how much more efficient the business is today and the fact that infrastructure is sitting there to be filled in, but we have to go execute on that. And so I think we will always be in a rush to make as much progress as we possibly can. But we will try to be intelligent about how we transition between the goal of efficiency and the goal of growth. We think that there are still gains to be had in both areas. And that's why we're labeling that a transition period. The place where we're headed is clear, the speed that we're going to get there is less clear. And so as we start to make that transition, we'll keep giving you feedback to make it clear what we believe at any point in time.

我確實認為，有理由相信，考慮到當今的業務效率有多高以及基礎設施待填充的事實，我們應該能夠以更快的速度增長並且非常高效，但我們有去執行它。因此，我認為我們將始終急於取得盡可能多的進展。但我們將努力明智地思考如何在效率目標和成長目標之間過渡。我們認為這兩個領域仍然可以取得進展。這就是為什麼我們將其標記為過渡期。我們要去的地方是明確的，但我們到達那裡的速度卻不太清楚。因此，當我們開始進行這種轉變時，我們將不斷向您提供回饋，以明確我們在任何時候的信念。

Got it. Got it. Okay. That's fair. And just on the finance business, I mean you undersold a couple of hundred million in the fourth quarter. And you noted in the shareholder letter that you don't expect any onetime benefits here in the first quarter either. So does that mean you're likely to run at this elevated level of receivables on the balance sheet from here on? And then what was driving that decision?

知道了。知道了。好的。這還算公平。就金融業務而言，我的意思是您在第四季度的銷售量少了數億美元。您在股東信中指出，您也不期望第一季出現任何一次性收益。那麼，這是否意味著從現在開始，您的資產負債表上的應收帳款可能會處於如此高的水平？那麼是什麼推動了這個決定呢？

I can hit that. Yes. So I think the -- I would say the -- what we called out in the outlook is us being significantly above $100 million of adjusted EBITDA. That doesn't anticipate any loan sales above originations. I think it's possible that we could oversell originations. That's just not -- it's not necessarily a baseline expectation. And it's also -- I think the most important point is we don't need to feel really good about our significantly above $100 million adjusted EBITDA outlook. And then in terms of the -- is Q4 the base level? The answer to that is no. I do think we'll transition back toward more normalized levels by overselling originations at various points from time to time over the course of the year would be my expectation.

我可以打那個。是的。因此，我認為——我想說的是——我們在展望中指出的是，我們的調整後 EBITDA 遠高於 1 億美元。這並不意味著任何貸款銷售量會超過原始貸款額。我認為我們可能會過度推銷原創產品。這並不是——這不一定是基線期望。我認為最重要的一點是，我們不需要對遠高於 1 億美元的調整後 EBITDA 前景感到非常滿意。然後，第四季是基準水平嗎？答案是否定的。我確實認為，我的期望是，我們將通過在一年中的不同時間點不時超售原產地來過渡到更正常化的水平。

And our next question will come from Mike Baker with D.A. Davidson.

我們的下一個問題將由 D.A. 的 Mike Baker 提出。戴維森。

Okay. A couple real quick sort of asked, but I'll ask it another way maybe. Anything unique about the first quarter and not significantly above $100 million that shouldn't translate into something similar in future quarters in 2024?

好的。有幾個人很快就問了，但我也許會用另一種方​​式問。第一季有什麼獨特之處，且不顯著超過 1 億美元，但不應該在 2024 年的未來幾季轉化為類似的情況？

We did address this in our outlook. So our outlook does not anticipate any onetime benefits or costs.

我們確實在展望中解決了這個問題。因此，我們的前景不會預期任何一次性收益或成本。

Anything in terms of the market? Or is the first quarter usually more profitable than other quarters? Or anything externally or anything that would suggest that, that kind of quarterly number isn't sustainable?

市場方面有什麼嗎？或者第一季通常比其他季度更有利可圖？或任何外部因素或任何表明這種季度數字不可持續的因素？

No. I think our expectations for Q1 are normal seasonality, but nothing -- there's tax season that we discussed earlier that is hitting today. Nothing abnormal beyond that in our assumptions.

不。我認為我們對第一季的預期是正常的季節性，但沒有什麼——我們之前討論過的納稅季節今天即將到來。除了我們的假設之外，沒有任何異常。

That makes sense. Okay. We've seen a lot of advertisements and announcements on the same day. I understand part of that is sort of the backhaul being more efficient on your backhaul. But is that -- what's the uptake on that? How much of a competitive advantage is that becoming for you from a customer standpoint?

這就說得通了。好的。我們在同一天看到了很多廣告和公告。據我所知，部分原因是回程在回程上更有效率。但這是──人們對此有何看法？從客戶的角度來看，這對您來說有多大的競爭優勢？

Yes. Well, I mean, first, we're extremely proud of that offering. That's not an easy thing to do. I think it's the kind of thing that I think sort of flexes our vertical integration muscles because to do that well, you have to have a transaction platform that's very quick and easy, that's deeply integrated into your logistics system, which is connected up through your verification system as most of those customers are getting financing and they need to get their financing terms and get verified to unlock that. So I think that's a complicated offering to put together that does require vertical integration and a lot of systems intelligently speaking to one another.

是的。嗯，我的意思是，首先，我們對這項產品感到非常自豪。這不是一件容易的事。我認為這是一種展示我們垂直整合能力的事情，因為要做到這一點，你必須有一個非常快速和簡單的交易平台，它深深地整合到你的物流系統中，透過你的物流系統連接起來。驗證系統，因為大多數客戶都在獲得融資，他們需要獲得融資條款並經過驗證才能解鎖。因此，我認為這是一個複雜的產品組合，確實需要垂直整合和許多系統之間的智慧通訊。

I think that's something we've been working on for a bit now. But it's something that we've generally been pointing more at efficiency gains than at driving growth. And I think what we mean by that is just as a function of normal course, there are always kind of gaps in any given calendar that pop up for many different reasons. And by building same-day capabilities, we've been able to then basically fill in gaps with additional volume by just making those times available to customers. And so we've been able to basically drive efficiency in our cost while simultaneously giving customers faster delivery.

我認為這是我們現在一直在努力的事情。但我們通常更傾向於提高效率，而不是推動成長。我認為我們的意思只是作為正常過程的函數，在任何給定的日曆中總是存在由於多種不同原因而出現的間隙。透過建立當日達能力，我們基本上能夠透過向客戶提供這些時間來填補額外數量的空白。因此，我們基本上能夠提高成本效率，同時為客戶提供更快的交貨速度。

Now to the extent we want to start to flex that into more of a growth tool over time. One, you kind of can just do that with scale because density makes that easier to do. But two, you can lean in a little bit more into your kind of staffing model to enable more of those slots. That, I would say, is sort of a separate choice. The underlying capability is something that we have built, something that we're rolling out, something that we're extremely excited about, something that does have uptake that is notable and that customers really like.

現在，隨著時間的推移，我們希望開始將其轉變為更多的成長工具。第一，你可以透過規模來做到這一點，因為密度使得這更容易做到。但第二，你可以更多地依靠你的人員配置模型來啟用更多的空缺。我想說，這是一個單獨的選擇。底層功能是我們已經建立的、正在推出的、我們非常興奮的、確實引人注目且客戶真正喜歡的功能。

And if you search around in our reviews or online, you can find a lot of commentary on it, where customers are very positively surprised by it. And then I think separately, we have a choice of kind of are we using that just to drive efficiency or are we going to kind of push the lever more in the direction of growth. And over time, as we balance this transition, I think that's probably the direction it will go, but we'll see what speed it goes in that direction.

如果您在我們的評論或網上搜索，您可以找到很多關於它的評論，客戶對此感到非常驚訝。然後我分別認為，我們可以選擇僅僅利用它來提高效率，還是將槓桿更多地推向成長方向。隨著時間的推移，當我們平衡這種轉變時，我認為這可能是它的發展方向，但我們會看看它朝這個方向發展的速度。

Okay. Makes sense. If I could ask one more. Your units available for sale on your website has been pretty consistent, although we did see a pickup lately as we track that. My guess is that's because of taking the inventory from your liquidating competitor. Or am I wrong about that? Is that more of a discretionary decision to start to bump up your inventory in anticipation of stronger growth?

好的。說得通。如果我能再問一個的話。儘管我們最近在追蹤時確實看到了提貨，但您網站上可供出售的單位相當一致。我的猜測是，這是因為從清算的競爭對手那裡拿走了庫存。還是我錯了？這是否更像是一個出於預期強勁增長而開始增加庫存的酌情決定？

I think that -- I think most likely what you're referencing is the bulk sale or bulk acquisition vehicles from a competitor -- is most likely what you're referencing there in the data. There hasn't been a concerted effort. Yes.

我認為 - 我認為您最有可能引用的是來自競爭對手的批量銷售或批量收購工具 - 最有可能是您在數據中引用的內容。還沒有齊心協力。是的。

And our next question will come from Ron Josey with Citi.

我們的下一個問題將來自花旗銀行的 Ron Josey。

Maybe as a quick follow-up, Ernie, this one, just on same-day shipping. I think we just talked about it a little bit, but now live in 11 markets. Rather than focusing on efficiency, I wanted to hear your comments on perhaps the impact to improve conversion rates that's coming from same-day shipping. Is this something that you're seeing to have an impact on just conversion to sale? Or is it say, call it, still too early to tell in the market to see the benefits there? That's question one. And then maybe, Mark, realizing it's also early, but Carli, now that it's, call it, implement, I wanted to hear about the efficiencies range just across the reconditioning process. And this is in the process of like how AI is changing the business.

也許作為快速跟進，厄尼，這個，只是當天發貨。我想我們只是討論了一點，但現在生活在 11 個市場。我不想專注於效率，而是想聽聽您對當日發貨對提高轉換率的影響的評論。您認為這是否會對轉換為銷售產生影響？還是說，打電話吧，在市場上看到好處還為時過早？這是問題一。然後也許，馬克，意識到這也太早了，但是卡莉，現在，稱之為，實施，我想聽聽整個修復過程的效率範圍。這就像人工智慧正在改變業務一樣。

Sure. So on same-day delivery, I think we're -- we'll elect to not quantify the impact, but absolutely, there's no question that speed drives conversion and that we see that in same delivery as well -- or same-day delivery as well. So I think that is exciting. That's a powerful feature. And as discussed earlier, I think over time, it's a feature that we can lean into more if we choose to use that as a growth lever and then also as we expand our footprint, leveraging more of our ADESA sites for reconditioning. It unlocks the ability to do same-day delivery in many more markets. So I think that's a story that will probably unfold over many years, but we think it's a pretty exciting story. It's a story that is only possible for integration. It's a story that's only possible with an enormous footprint, and I think it's very hard to replicate. So something we're very excited about. And then Mark, do you want to hit Carli?

當然。因此，在當日送達方面，我認為我們將選擇不量化影響，但毫無疑問，速度會推動轉化，而且我們在同日送達或當日送達中也看到了這一點送貨也是如此。所以我認為這很令人興奮。這是一個強大的功能。正如前面所討論的，我認為隨著時間的推移，如果我們選擇將其用作增長槓桿，然後隨著我們擴大足跡，利用更多的 ADESA 站點進行翻新，我們可以更多地利用這一功能。它開啟了在更多市場進行當日送達的能力。所以我認為這個故事可能會持續很多年，但我們認為這是一個非常令人興奮的故事。這是一個只有整合才有可能的故事。這是一個只有擁有巨大足跡才能實現的故事，我認為它很難複製。這是我們非常興奮的事情。然後馬克，你想打卡莉嗎？

Sure. Yes. I can hit Carli. I think we're very excited about the progress that we've made, obviously, in the reconditioning centers. A lot of that was operational gains and a lot of that was technology gains led by the nationwide rollout of Carli. And so we have seen -- I think we've talked about more than $900 step-down non-vehicle retail cost of sales since our peak over a year ago. And I think that's been driven by many sources getting better at managing the process of reconditioning, getting better at parts procurement and efficiency and a number of other things. So I think that's been a big success story in the IRCs?

當然。是的。我可以打卡莉。我認為我們對修復中心所取得的進展感到非常興奮。其中很大一部分是營運收益，還有很大一部分是由 Carli 在全國推廣帶來的技術效益。因此，我們已經看到，自一年多前的高峰以來，我們已經討論了超過 900 美元的非車輛零售銷售成本下降。我認為這是由許多來源推動的，他們在管理翻新過程、在零件採購和效率以及其他許多方面做得更好。所以我認為這在 IRC 中是一個巨大的成功故事？

And then you also looped in a question about AI more broadly. And that's certainly an area it's widely talked about, but it is something that we're very excited about. I think we have several what we see as significant advantages in our position to take advantage of the rapid development of AI. One is our large scale. So we have -- are collecting enormous numbers of data points every year, with all the cars that we're evaluating on a day-to-day basis, all of the customer interactions that we have every single day, whether it's on the website or in our communications with customers, and a number of other things. And we're able to do that at a very large scale.

然後你也循環提出了一個更廣泛的關於人工智慧的問題。這當然是一個被廣泛談論的領域，但我們對此感到非常興奮。我認為我們有幾個我們認為的顯著優勢，可以利用人工智慧的快速發展。一是我們規模大。因此，我們每年都會收集大量數據點，包括我們每天評估的所有汽車、我們每天進行的所有客戶互動，無論是在網站上或我們與客戶的溝通以及其他一些事情。我們能夠大規模地做到這一點。

We're also highly vertically integrated, which we think makes AI even more powerful because various parts of the vertically integrated chain can be connecting and learning from one another, driving even further gains on AI. And obviously, we're also technology-centric, which I think along with having large scale and vertical integration is important to making the most use of AI as quickly as possible.

我們也高度垂直整合，我們認為這使得人工智慧更加強大，因為垂直整合鏈的各個部分可以相互連接和學習，從而推動人工智慧的進一步發展。顯然，我們也是以技術為中心的，我認為這與大規模和垂直整合對於盡快充分利用人工智慧非常重要。

We've seen all kinds of gains already in customer care, in particular, getting better at processing documents, automatically speeding up the time it takes to handle calls that come in to our customer care centers. And I think -- those are a couple of quick examples, but this is certainly something that we're very excited about. We think we're structurally positioned to significantly fit from it, given our large scale our vertical integration and our technology focus. And so definitely something that we work on it about.

我們已經看到客戶服務方面已經取得了各種成果，特別是在處理文件方面做得更好，自動加快了處理客戶服務中心來電所需的時間。我認為——這些只是幾個簡單的例子，但這肯定是我們非常興奮的事情。我們認為，鑑於我們的大規模、垂直整合和技術重點，我們的結構定位非常適合它。所以這絕對是我們正在努力的事情。

And just because that's a fun one, I would love to jump in and add a couple of points as well. The other thing that we believe is unique about us is our system is totally deterministic, meaning that there is a negotiation. And that means that a customer coming to our site can get a complete answer instantly -- just driven by logic. And so it means the experience that they can get through these tools are much more complete. And I think there are a few tools that we've worked on in our history that I think have more clearly demonstrated the value of vertical integration because it is very, very hard to answer what can feel to a customer like a very simple question.

正因為這很有趣，我也很樂意加入並添加幾點。我們認為我們的獨特之處在於我們的系統是完全確定性的，這意味著存在協商。這意味著訪問我們網站的客戶可以立即得到完整的答案——只需邏輯驅動。因此，這意味著他們可以透過這些工具獲得更完整的體驗。我認為我們在歷史上開發過一些工具，我認為它們更清楚地展示了垂直整合的價值，因為要回答客戶感覺非常簡單的問題是非常非常困難的。

Do you have any similar cars with the sunroof that will cost me $20 less per month? That's a hard question to answer. And it's an extremely hard question to answer if you're not vertically integrated and if you're data organized in a way that enables you to do it and impossible to answer if you're not -- if your policies don't result in deterministic calcs that drive that, and all of ours do. So I think it's really exciting. It's -- this is an area where anyone who's paying any attention at all is your mind is constantly blown every week when you kind of see the new things that are rolling out. So I don't think we yet know exactly where this is going to go.

你們有沒有類似的有天窗的車，可以讓我每月少花 20 美元？這是一個很難回答的問題。如果你沒有垂直整合，如果你的資料組織方式使你能夠做到這一點，那麼這個問題就很難回答，如果你沒有垂直整合，那麼就不可能回答——如果你的政策沒有帶來結果確定性計算推動了這一點，我們所有人都這樣做。所以我認為這真的很令人興奮。在這個領域，任何關注的人都會發現，每週當你看到正在推出的新事物時，你都會感到震驚。所以我認為我們還不知道具體的發展方向。

I think we do know that we're well positioned to take advantage of it. I think also there's kind of another fundamental at play, which is the value of any given technology is always a function of how well positioned you are to use it versus those you compete with. And I think there's a pretty differentiated story here. We've got a great team. We're paying very close attention. And so we'll see where that takes us. I'm not sure it's driving numerical results yet outside of some things you're seeing in customer care, but we are certainly working on it, and we're excited about where it could go over time.

我認為我們確實知道我們處於有利位置來利用它。我認為還有另一個基本原理在起作用，即任何特定技術的價值始終取決於您在使用它時與競爭對手相比的定位如何。我認為這裡有一個非常不同的故事。我們有一支很棒的團隊。我們正在非常密切地關注。所以我們會看看這會帶我們去哪裡。除了您在客戶服務中看到的一些事情之外，我不確定它是否會推動數位結果，但我們確實正在努力，我們對隨著時間的推移它會走向何方感到興奮。

And our last question will come from John Blackledge with TD Cowen.

我們的最後一個問題將由約翰·布萊克利奇和 TD Cowen 提出。

Two questions. First, the ad spend was down over 30% year-over-year. Just curious how we should think about ad spend in the first quarter and then 2024. And then just a follow-up on same-day. Recognize it's in 11 markets right now, and it's early days, but what is the typical mix of kind of same-day inventory available in a given market? And how could that trend over time?

兩個問題。首先，廣告支出較去年同期下降超過30%。只是好奇我們應該如何考慮第一季和 2024 年的廣告支出。然後只是當天的後續行動。認識到它現在在 11 個市場，而且還處於早期階段，但特定市場中可用的當日庫存類型的典型組合是什麼？隨著時間的推移，這種趨勢如何發生？

I could start by hitting the question on ad spend. So ad spend in the first quarter, we expect a slight tick down from where we were in Q4, more toward Q2, Q3 levels, maybe slightly lower, but roughly in the Q2 to Q3 range. So the overall story there is stable ad spend in Q1 relative to the past few quarters.

我可以從廣告支出問題開始。因此，我們預計第一季的廣告支出將比第四季略有下降，更接近第二季、第三季的水平，可能會略有下降，但大致在第二季到第三季的範圍內。因此，總體而言，與過去幾季相比，第一季的廣告支出保持穩定。

And then generally speaking, as it relates to inventory availability of same day, the right kind of first order way to think about that is usually the vehicles that are closest to customers in the markets where we offer it are available same day, and we are generally rolling it out in markets where we are nearby inspection centers. And so that is what is governing our choices of which markets rolling that out to. And that's why over time, as we continue to open more capabilities at ADESA locations, we'll be able to expand that further.

一般來說，因為它與當天的庫存可用性有關，所以考慮這一點的正確的第一順序方式通常是我們提供的市場中最接近客戶的車輛當天可用，並且我們是通常在我們位於檢查中心附近的市場推出。這就是我們選擇將其推廣到哪些市場的原因。這就是為什麼隨著時間的推移，隨著我們繼續在 ADESA 地點開放更多功能，我們將能夠進一步擴展。

This concludes our question-and-answer session. I would now like to turn the conference back over to Ernie Garcia for any closing remarks.

我們的問答環節到此結束。現在我想將會議轉回厄尼·加西亞（Ernie Garcia）發表閉幕詞。

Great. Well, thanks everyone for joining the call. We're extremely excited about the work that has been done by the team here. And to the Carvana team, we do this every call. We always say thank you. I always feel like there's no way it's coming through the phone in the way that we mean it, but we really do hope that you guys feel that and understand and appreciate the impact of all the work that you've done. I don't think it was reasonable to expect the progress that we've made from the perspective of a year ago. And I hope that we have another unreasonable year now. And I think we're positioned to do it if we keep charging. So keep marching. Thank you all. We'll talk to you guys next quarter.

偉大的。好的，感謝大家加入通話。我們對團隊在這裡所做的工作感到非常興奮。對於 Carvana 團隊來說，我們每次通話都會這樣做。我們總是說謝謝。我總覺得它不可能按照我們的意思透過電話傳達，但我們真的希望你們能感受到這一點，並理解和欣賞你們所做的所有工作的影響。我認為從一年前的角度來預期我們所取得的進展是不合理的。我希望我們又迎來了不合理的一年。我認為，如果我們繼續充電，我們就有能力做到這一點。所以繼續前進。謝謝你們。我們將在下個季度與你們交談。

The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect your lines.

會議現已結束。感謝您參加今天的演講。現在您可以斷開線路。