Carvana Co (CVNA) 2022 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good day, and welcome to the Carvana First Quarter 2022 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) Please note, this event is being recorded.

美好的一天，歡迎參加 Carvana 2022 年第一季度收益電話會議。 （操作員說明）請注意，此事件正在記錄中。

I would now like to turn the conference over to Mike Levin, VP of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

我現在想將會議轉交給投資者關係副總裁 Mike Levin。請繼續。

Thank you, Betsy. Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen. Thank you for joining us on Carvana's First Quarter 2022 Earnings Conference Call. Please note that this call will be simultaneously webcast on the Investor Relations section of the company's corporate website at investors.carvana.com. The first quarter shareholder letter is also posted on the IR website. Also, we posted additional information on the ADESA U.S. acquisition transactions, which can be found in the Events & Presentations page of the IR website. Joining me on the call today are Ernie Garcia, Chief Executive Officer; and Mark Jenkins, Chief Financial Officer.

謝謝你，貝茜。下午好，女士們，先生們。感謝您參加 Carvana 2022 年第一季度收益電話會議。請注意，本次電話會議將同時在公司網站investors.carvana.com 的投資者關係部分進行網絡直播。第一季度股東信也發佈在 IR 網站上。此外，我們還發布了有關 ADESA 美國收購交易的更多信息，這些信息可在 IR 網站的活動和演示頁面中找到。今天和我一起參加電話會議的是首席執行官 Ernie Garcia；和首席財務官馬克詹金斯。

Before we start, I would like to remind you that the following discussion contains forward-looking statements within the meaning of the federal securities laws, including, but not limited to, Carvana's market opportunities and future financial results that involve risks and uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially from those discussed here. A detailed discussion of the material factors that cause actual results to differ from forward-looking statements can be found in the Risk Factors section of Carvana's most recent Form 10-K. The forward-looking statements and risks in this conference call are based on current expectations as of today, and Carvana assumes no obligation to update or revise them whether as a result of new developments or otherwise.

在開始之前，我想提醒您，以下討論包含聯邦證券法含義內的前瞻性陳述，包括但不限於 Carvana 的市場機會和未來財務業績，其中涉及可能導致的風險和不確定性實際結果與此處討論的結果大不相同。有關導致實際結果與前瞻性陳述不同的重大因素的詳細討論，請參見 Carvana 最新的 10-K 表格的風險因素部分。本次電話會議中的前瞻性陳述和風險基於截至今天的當前預期，Carvana 不承擔因新發展或其他原因而更新或修改它們的義務。

Unless otherwise noted on today's call, all comparisons are on a year-over-year basis. Our commentary today will include non-GAAP financial measures. Reconciliations between GAAP and non-GAAP metrics for our reported results can be found in our shareholder letter issued today, a copy of which can be found on our Investor Relations website.

除非在今天的電話會議中另有說明，否則所有比較都是按年進行的。我們今天的評論將包括非公認會計準則財務措施。我們報告結果的 GAAP 和非 GAAP 指標之間的調節可以在我們今天發布的股東信中找到，其副本可以在我們的投資者關係網站上找到。

And now with that said, I'd like to turn it over to Ernie Garcia. Ernie?

現在話雖如此，我想把它交給厄尼加西亞。厄尼？

Thanks, Mike, and thanks, everyone, for joining our call. The first quarter was a challenging quarter for Carvana. There were a number of impacts on the business, some internal and some external, that combined to negatively impact our financial results. We view these impacts as transitory setbacks, and I will hit them first. Secondly, I will discuss what we are working on internally to address each of these impacts. Next, I'll touch on the underlying demand for our offering. And finally, I'll close on our thoughts on the long term.

謝謝邁克，也謝謝大家加入我們的電話。第一季度對 Carvana 來說是一個充滿挑戰的季度。對業務產生了一些影響，一些是內部的，一些是外部的，這些影響共同對我們的財務業績產生了負面影響。我們將這些影響視為暫時的挫折，我將首先打擊它們。其次，我將討論我們為解決這些影響而在內部開展的工作。接下來，我將談及我們產品的潛在需求。最後，我將結束我們的長期想法。

First, let's discuss the impacts to our results. There were 3 primary drivers of our results in the first quarter. The first is our operational constraints that most severely impacted our inspection centers and logistics network. These began with Omicron, were exacerbated by winter storms, and then the path to recovery has been slowed by our inspection center and logistics network and inventory growth causing us to produce and move more inventory to newly opened IRCs that are further away from our average customers, leading to additional network complexity. These effects had negative impacts on both sales volumes and retail GPU.

首先，讓我們討論一下對結果的影響。第一季度我們的業績有 3 個主要驅動因素。首先是我們的運營限制，對我們的檢驗中心和物流網絡影響最為嚴重。這些從 Omicron 開始，被冬季風暴加劇，然後我們的檢驗中心和物流網絡以及庫存增長減緩了復甦的道路，導致我們生產並將更多庫存轉移到距離我們的普通客戶更遠的新開的 IRC ，導致額外的網絡複雜性。這些影響對銷量和零售 GPU 都有負面影響。

The second was industry-wide impacts. Affordability and general consumer sentiment combined to drive fewer industry-wide sales than prior periods. While we continue to rapidly grow market share throughout the quarter, the combination of these economic factors and our operational constraints caused our growth to come in lower than we were anticipating. Because of the operational requirements of our business, we generally plan and build for growth 6 to 12 months in advance, depending on the lead times necessary to ramp each operational team. On average, across our history, this has served us well as it has enabled us to maintain much higher levels of growth in businesses with our operational complexity historically have been able to achieve. But given the internal and external factors described above, this quarter, it caused us to carry more expenses than we had sales to offset them with. This led to total SG&A levels that were largely on plan in total dollars being much higher per unit than prior periods and, to a lesser degree, also flowed through COGS driving down total GPU.

二是全行業影響。可負擔性和普遍的消費者情緒共同推動了整個行業的銷售額比以往時期減少。儘管我們在整個季度繼續快速增長市場份額，但這些經濟因素和我們的運營限制相結合，導致我們的增長低於我們的預期。由於我們業務的運營要求，我們通常會提前 6 到 12 個月計劃和構建增長，具體取決於每個運營團隊所需的交貨時間。平均而言，縱觀我們的歷史，這對我們很有幫助，因為它使我們能夠在歷史上能夠實現運營複雜性的業務中保持更高水平的增長。但鑑於上述內部和外部因素，本季度，它導致我們承擔的費用超過了我們的銷售額來抵消它們。這導致總體上在計劃中的 SG&A 總水平（以總美元計）比以往時期要高得多，並且在較小程度上也流過 COGS，從而降低了總 GPU。

Thirdly, interest rates moved up rapidly in the quarter. As we originate the loans our customers use to buy parts from us and then sell them later, interest rate increases between initially showing our customers their financing terms and ultimately selling those loans lead to a reduction in the value of the loans we sell, which had the impact of reducing Other GPU. These factors combined to lead to a clear step back in our financial results. While this isn't what we are shooting for, it is straightforward to understand, and it suggests straightforward solutions.

三是本季度利率上升較快。由於我們發放貸款，客戶用來從我們這裡購買零件，然後再出售，因此在最初向客戶展示其融資條款和最終出售這些貸款之間的利率上升導致我們出售的貸款價值下降，這導致減少其他 GPU 的影響。這些因素相結合，導致我們的財務業績明顯倒退。雖然這不是我們所追求的，但它很容易理解，並且提出了直接的解決方案。

Returning to positive EBITDA and resuming our march to our long-term financial model from there requires that we resolve our operational constraints, that we get our expenses and sales back into balance through a combination of sales increases and cost efficiencies and that we adjust our process in our finance group to reduce the impact of rapidly rising rates on GPU until we return to an environment with more stable rates. We have detailed plans that are already in motion in each of these areas. Our logistics team has clear plans in several key areas to catch up with the level our metrics were a year ago and then to move significantly beyond them. The addition of ADESA to our network will help to accelerate these plans further.

恢復正的 EBITDA 並從那裡恢復我們向長期財務模式的進軍，要求我們解決我們的運營限制，通過銷售增長和成本效率的結合使我們的費用和銷售恢復平衡，並且我們調整我們的流程在我們的財務組中，以減少快速上升的利率對 GPU 的影響，直到我們回到利率更穩定的環境。我們已經在這些領域制定了詳細的計劃。我們的物流團隊在幾個關鍵領域有明確的計劃，以趕上我們一年前的指標水平，然後大大超越它們。將 ADESA 添加到我們的網絡將有助於進一步加快這些計劃。

Logistics progress will also unlock the ability to make more of our inventory visible to more of our customers, which is a straightforward way to drive sales up faster -- as faster delivery time and larger selections increase customer conversion. Beyond that, the team is working on several near- and medium-term plans to improve the selection of more affordable cars we have for our customers. These plans start as simply as buying a greater quantity of less expensive cars and extend the changes to our inspection center processes to produce more of those cars and other product enhancements that make it easier for our customers to find and purchase less expensive cars.

物流的進步也將釋放讓更多客戶看到我們更多庫存的能力，這是一種更快推動銷售的直接方式——因為更快的交貨時間和更多的選擇會增加客戶轉化率。除此之外，該團隊正在製定幾項近期和中期計劃，以改善我們為客戶選擇的更實惠的汽車。這些計劃一開始就是購買更多更便宜的汽車，然後將更改擴展到我們的檢測中心流程，以生產更多此類汽車和其他產品增強功能，使我們的客戶更容易找到和購買更便宜的汽車。

In addition, we are using our temporary excess capacity as an opportunity to gain additional cost efficiencies. While we are always aiming for cost improvement, the constant pressure of growth often dominates our priorities and slows our progress. Across the company, we have each of our operational teams focused on process and product improvements to increase efficiency in an effort to reduce cost and improve our scalability as part of Project Catapult. We are determined to make the most of this opportunity.

此外，我們正在利用我們暫時的過剩產能作為獲得額外成本效率的機會。雖然我們一直致力於降低成本，但持續的增長壓力往往支配著我們的優先事項並減慢了我們的進度。在整個公司，我們的每個運營團隊都專注於流程和產品改進，以提高效率，從而降低成本並提高我們作為 Project Catapult 的一部分的可擴展性。我們決心充分利用這個機會。

Next, I want to touch on the underlying demand for our offering. Here, the signs continue to look great. We continue to rapidly gain market share in this difficult environment as we grew by 14% while the market around us was shrinking. Further, we can look at subpopulations of our customers that are less impacted by affordability and interest rates to get a deeper view into demand. Our customers with FICO scores over 700 grew approximately 50% despite our logistics constraints and our ongoing suppression of inventory visibility.

接下來，我想談談我們產品的潛在需求。在這裡，標誌繼續看起來很棒。在這個艱難的環境中，我們繼續快速獲得市場份額，我們增長了 14%，而我們周圍的市場卻在萎縮。此外，我們可以查看受負擔能力和利率影響較小的客戶亞群，以更深入地了解需求。儘管我們的物流限制和我們持續抑制庫存可見性，我們 FICO 得分超過 700 的客戶增長了約 50%。

Lastly, I want to close with a couple of thoughts on the long term. At any point in time, the company's success is driven by the sum of the structural forces that define an industry, by the macroeconomic backdrop and by company-specific factors. In the long run, the macroeconomic backdrop disappears from that equation as it just becomes its average. Structurally, nothing has changed. We're a fragmented 40 million unit per year market with significant margins and customers who are open to and excited about something new.

最後，我想以一些長期的想法結束。在任何時候，公司的成功都是由定義行業的結構性力量、宏觀經濟背景和公司特定因素共同推動的。從長遠來看，宏觀經濟背景從這個等式中消失了，因為它只是變成了它的平均值。在結構上，沒有任何改變。我們是一個每年生產 4000 萬件商品的分散市場，擁有可觀的利潤和對新事物持開放態度和興奮的客戶。

From a company-specific perspective, we continue to make constant progress. During this period, we have excess capacity. We have a transitory reduction in the amount of energy necessary to keep up with growth. While we will not allow that to reduce our energy output -- but we will not allow that to reduce our energy output in the least. We will simply point more of our energy towards system and process improvements to maintain the same aggregate level of relentless improvement.

從公司特定的角度來看，我們不斷取得進步。在此期間，我們的產能過剩。我們暫時減少了跟上增長所需的能量。雖然我們不會允許它減少我們的能量輸出——但我們不會允許它至少減少我們的能量輸出。我們只會將更多的精力用於系統和流程的改進，以保持相同的持續改進的總體水平。

In 9 years, we've gone from an idea to a company with over $12 billion in revenue, and we are still just 1% of our market. In 9 years, we went from the company with negative gross profit to a company with over $4,500 gross profit per unit. In 9 years, we went from a company that lost $0.30 of EBITDA for every dollar of revenue to a company with approximately EBITDA breakeven just last year. That constant progress has been the result of the opportunity our market has presented us, the power of the business model we have built, the quality of the team we have assembled and the endless effort, creativity and passion the team has poured in.

9 年來，我們從一個想法變成了一家收入超過 120 億美元的公司，而我們仍然只佔市場的 1%。在 9 年的時間裡，我們從毛利為負的公司變成了每單位毛利超過 4,500 美元的公司。在 9 年中，我們從一家每收入 1 美元的 EBITDA 損失 0.30 美元的公司變成了一家僅在去年就實現了 EBITDA 盈虧平衡的公司。這種持續的進步是市場給我們帶來的機會、我們建立的商業模式的力量、我們組建的團隊的質量以及團隊投入的無盡努力、創造力和激情的結果。

Some quarters are bumpier than others. Unfortunately, in the real world, there are rarely perfectly straight lines anywhere. While it might be a little harder to see this quarter than most, we remain squarely on the path to building the largest and most profitable automotive retailer and to changing the way people buy and sell cars. The march continues. Mark?

有些地方比其他地方更顛簸。不幸的是，在現實世界中，任何地方都很少有完美的直線。雖然本季度可能比大多數人更難看到，但我們仍然堅定不移地打造最大、最賺錢的汽車零售商，並改變人們買賣汽車的方式。遊行繼續。標記？

Thank you, Ernie, and thank you all for joining us today. Carvana continued to gain market share in Q1, but several external and internal factors impacted our financial results. Some of these impacted the used vehicle industry as a whole, such as Omicron, used vehicle prices, interest rates and other macroeconomic factors. And others were more specific to Carvana, such as reconditioning and logistics network disruptions.

謝謝你，厄尼，感謝大家今天加入我們。 Carvana 在第一季度繼續獲得市場份額，但一些外部和內部因素影響了我們的財務業績。其中一些影響了整個二手車行業，例如 Omicron、二手車價格、利率和其他宏觀經濟因素。還有一些更具體到 Carvana，例如翻新和物流網絡中斷。

The impact of these factors on retail units sold volume was the primary driver of our results in Q1. We generally prepare for sales volume 6 to 12 months in advance, meaning we built capacity in most of our business functions for significantly more volume than we fulfilled in Q1. With our costs relatively fixed in the short term, the lower retail unit volume led to higher cost of goods sold per unit and higher SG&A per unit. These effects combined with rapidly rising interest rates and widening credit spreads to lead to lower EBITDA margin.

這些因素對零售單位銷量的影響是我們第一季度業績的主要驅動力。我們通常會提前 6 到 12 個月為銷量做準備，這意味著我們在大部分業務功能中都建立了容量，以比第一季度完成的銷量要多得多。由於我們的成本在短期內相對固定，較低的零售單位數量導致更高的單位銷售成本和更高的單位 SG&A。這些影響與快速上升的利率和擴大的信貸利差相結合，導致 EBITDA 利潤率下降。

In Q1, retail units sold totaled 105,185, an increase of 14%. Total revenue was $3.497 billion, an increase of 56%. Total gross profit per unit in Q1 was $2,833, a decrease of $823 year-over-year. This total gross profit included a $76 per unit impact from Ernie's 1 million unit milestone gift to Carvana employees. Retail GPU was $808 in Q1, a decrease of $403. Retail GPU was impacted by a more than $600 per unit increase in reconditioning and inbound transport costs relative to the prior year and a more than $100 per unit decrease in shipping revenue driven by refunds to customers following extended delivery times.

第一季度，零售單位共售出 105,185 套，增長 14%。總收入為34.97億美元，增長56%。第一季度每單位總毛利為 2,833 美元，同比下降 823 美元。這一總毛利潤包括 Ernie 向 Carvana 員工贈送的 100 萬個單位里程碑禮物帶來的每單位 76 美元的影響。第一季度零售 GPU 為 808 美元，減少了 403 美元。零售 GPU 受到每單位翻新和入站運輸成本增加超過 600 美元（相對於上一年）以及運輸收入每單位減少超過 100 美元的影響，原因是交貨時間延長後向客戶退款。

Retail cost increases in Q1 were primarily due to inefficiencies in the inspection and reconditioning centers and logistics network, which in turn were driven by Omicron, severe weather events and the extended time lines required to recover from these events, and due to lower retail units sold volume which increased per unit cost. We believe the factors impacting Q1 were transitory, and we expect to see retail costs move toward more normalized levels over the coming quarters as our logistics network normalizes and our expense levels are better balanced with sales volumes.

第一季度零售成本增加主要是由於檢驗和修復中心和物流網絡效率低下，而這反過來又是由 Omicron、惡劣天氣事件和從這些事件中恢復所需的延長時間線驅動的，以及由於零售單位銷售量減少單位成本增加的數量。我們認為影響第一季度的因素是暫時的，隨著我們的物流網絡正常化以及我們的費用水平與銷量更好地平衡，我們預計未來幾個季度零售成本將朝著更正常的水平移動。

Wholesale GPU was $219 in Q1, a decrease of $8, driven by higher volume, offset by lower profit per unit. Other GPU was $1,806 in Q1, a decrease of $412. Year-over-year changes in Other GPU were primarily driven by higher benchmark interest rates at the time of loan sale relative to origination interest rates and widening of credit spreads following the onset of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, partially offset by the impact of higher industry-wide used vehicle prices on average loan size.

第一季度的批發 GPU 為 219 美元，下降了 8 美元，這是由於銷量增加，但被單位利潤下降所抵消。第一季度其他 GPU 為 1,806 美元，減少了 412 美元。其他 GPU 的同比變化主要是由於貸款銷售時的基準利率相對於初始利率較高，以及俄羅斯和烏克蘭衝突爆發後信貸利差擴大，部分被平均貸款規模較高的全行業二手車價格。

Looking sequentially, the rapid rise in benchmark interest rates and widening credit spreads had a significant impact on the spread between funding costs and origination interest rates in Q1 versus Q4. This increase in spread had a more than $600 impact on Other GPU in Q1. We expect this spread to move toward more normalized levels over the coming quarters.

從順序來看，基準利率的快速上升和信貸利差的擴大對第一季度和第四季度的融資成本和發起利率之間的利差產生了重大影響。價差的增加在第一季度對其他 GPU 產生了超過 600 美元的影響。我們預計這種價差將在未來幾個季度向更正常化的水平移動。

The same factors that impacted retail units sold and total GPU also impacted EBITDA margin in Q1. EBITDA margin was minus 11.6%, a decrease from minus 1.3%. EBITDA margin included a 0.8% negative impact from Ernie's 1 million unit milestone gift to Carvana employees.

影響零售單位銷量和 GPU 總量的相同因素也影響了第一季度的 EBITDA 利潤率。 EBITDA 利潤率為負 11.6%，低於負 1.3%。 EBITDA 利潤率包括 Ernie 向 Carvana 員工贈送 100 萬件里程碑式禮物帶來的 0.8% 的負面影響。

While we faced a uniquely difficult environment in the first quarter, we are already seeing positive trends across our key metrics. And we expect meaningful sequential improvement in Q2 versus Q1 in retail units sold, revenue, total GPU, SG&A per retail unit sold and EBITDA margin.

儘管我們在第一季度面臨著獨特的困難環境，但我們已經在關鍵指標中看到了積極的趨勢。我們預計第二季度與第一季度相比，零售單位銷售量、收入、GPU 總量、每個零售單位銷售的 SG&A 和 EBITDA 利潤率將出現顯著的連續改善。

In our last shareholder letter, we provided an expectation that we would achieve over $4,000 GPU and approximately EBITDA breakeven in the last 3 quarters of 2022 taken in aggregate. We now expect the return to over $4,000 GPU and positive EBITDA to be pushed back a few quarters and then to resume our march toward our long-term financial model.

在我們上一封股東信中，我們預計我們將在 2022 年最後三個季度實現超過 4,000 美元的 GPU 和大約 EBITDA 的盈虧平衡。我們現在預計，超過 4,000 美元的 GPU 和正 EBITDA 的回報將推遲幾個季度，然後繼續向我們的長期財務模型邁進。

We are on track to close our acquisition of ADESA U.S. in May and are excited about the role that ADESA U.S. will play in our path toward our long-term goals. The ADESA U.S. footprint includes 56 sites with approximately 6.5 million square feet of buildings on more than 4,000 acres. We expect to be able to build approximately 2 million units of annual reconditioning capacity in these locations while still operating ADESA U.S.'s wholesale auction business. This is the equivalent of approximately 30 greenfield Carvana IRC locations in terms of the production volume that we expect to unlock over time.

我們有望在 5 月完成對 ADESA US 的收購，並對 ADESA US 將在我們實現長期目標的道路上發揮的作用感到興奮。 ADESA 美國的足跡包括 56 個站點，佔地 4,000 多英畝，建築面積約為 650 萬平方英尺。我們預計能夠在這些地點建立大約 200 萬台的年翻新能力，同時仍運營 ADESA 美國的批發拍賣業務。就我們預計隨著時間的推移解鎖的產量而言，這相當於大約 30 個新建的 Carvana IRC 地點。

Adding the ADESA U.S. footprint will dramatically improve our logistics network over time. With the addition of these locations, we will eventually have reconditioned inventory within 50 miles of 58% of the U.S. population and within 200 miles of 94%. This will have the benefit of reducing shipping distances, times and costs, accelerating us to our long-term financial model.

隨著時間的推移，增加 ADESA 美國的足跡將顯著改善我們的物流網絡。隨著這些地點的增加，我們最終將在 58% 的美國人口 50 英里範圍內和 94% 的 200 英里範圍內修復庫存。這將有利於減少運輸距離、時間和成本，加速我們的長期財務模式。

We expect the ADESA U.S. purchase price to be financed primarily with $2.275 billion in unsecured notes. In addition, we expect to raise an additional $1 billion in preferred equity and $1 billion in common equity for future real estate improvements on the ADESA U.S. sites and for general corporate purposes. These financing transactions will place us in our strongest total liquidity resources and production capacity position ever, giving us a strong foundation for profitable growth and significant flexibility to execute our plan.

我們預計 ADESA 美國的購買價格將主要由 22.75 億美元的無擔保票據融資。此外，我們預計將額外籌集 10 億美元的優先股和 10 億美元的普通股，用於未來 ADESA 美國場地的房地產改進和一般公司用途。這些融資交易將使我們處於有史以來最強大的總流動性資源和生產能力地位，為我們的盈利增長和執行計劃的顯著靈活性奠定了堅實的基礎。

On March 31, we had approximately $1.7 billion in total liquidity resources, including cash, revolving availability and financeable real estate and securities. In total, we expect the transaction to generate approximately $1.9 billion of net cash proceeds after payment of the ADESA U.S. purchase price and more than $900 million of financeable real estate, bringing our total liquidity resources to approximately $4.5 billion pro forma for the transactions.

3 月 31 日，我們擁有大約 17 億美元的總流動性資源，包括現金、循環可用性以及可融資的房地產和證券。總體而言，我們預計在支付 ADESA 美國購買價格和超過 9 億美元的可融資房地產後，該交易將產生約 19 億美元的淨現金收益，使我們的總流動資金資源達到約 45 億美元的備考交易。

In addition, we estimate that the ADESA U.S. locations have approximately 200,000 units of facility capacity that is available for use with limited incremental site improvements. Combining our own IRCs with these ADESA U.S. locations, we expect total annual capacity at full utilization to be approximately 1.4 million units by the end of 2022. We are excited to join forces with the ADESA U.S. team on the path toward our long-term goals of buying and selling millions of cars per year and becoming the largest and most profitable auto retailer.

此外，我們估計 ADESA 美國地點有大約 200,000 單位的設施容量，可用於有限的增量站點改進。將我們自己的 IRC 與這些 ADESA 美國地點相結合，我們預計到 2022 年底，充分利用的總年產能約為 140 萬台。我們很高興與 ADESA 美國團隊攜手實現我們的長期目標每年買賣數百萬輛汽車，成為最大、最賺錢的汽車零售商。

Thank you for your attention. We'll now take questions.

感謝您的關注。我們現在來提問。

(Operator Instructions) The first question today comes from Zach Fadem with Wells Fargo.

（操作員說明）今天的第一個問題來自富國銀行的 Zach Fadem。

This is John Parke on for Zach. I guess with the 2 offerings you just announced, it doesn't sound like you guys are really changing the way you plan on financing the acquisition. But can you guys kind of share how you're thinking about the debt terms, I guess, the incremental interest expense as well as any associated CapEx plan with this acquisition in '22?

這是 Zach 的 John Parke。我想你們剛剛宣布的 2 種產品，聽起來你們並沒有真正改變你們計劃為收購融資的方式。但是你們能否分享一下你們對債務條款的看法，我猜，增量利息費用以及與 22 年此次收購相關的任何資本支出計劃？

Sure. So yes, I think we have announced our plans for financing the ADESA purchase as well as future real estate improvements on the ADESA site and additional funds for general corporate purposes. We expect that to take the form of $2.275 billion in unsecured notes, $1 billion of preferred equity and $1 billion of common equity. I think the specific terms on that, we'll discuss in the coming days. But I think that's the basic transaction structure.

當然。所以，是的，我認為我們已經宣布了為 ADESA 購買提供資金的計劃，以及未來在 ADESA 網站上的房地產改進以及用於一般企業用途的額外資金。我們預計這將採取 22.75 億美元的無擔保票據、10 億美元的優先股和 10 億美元的普通股的形式。我認為這方面的具體條款，我們將在未來幾天內討論。但我認為這是基本的交易結構。

I think we feel really great about that transaction structure. I think it gives us a lot of flexibility to execute our plan. I think we feel really great about the trajectory that we're on. We feel really great about joining forces with ADESA U.S. and all the benefits that, that brings to our core business. And so yes, I think we feel grateful about the acquisition and the financing structure. And then in terms of some of your questions on specifics on the securities, I think we'll talk more about that in the coming days.

我認為我們對這種交易結構感覺非常好。我認為它給了我們很大的靈活性來執行我們的計劃。我認為我們對我們所處的軌道感覺非常好。我們對與美國 ADESA 的合作以及為我們的核心業務帶來的所有好處感到非常高興。所以是的，我認為我們對收購和融資結構感到感激。然後就您對證券細節的一些問題而言，我認為我們將在未來幾天內更多地討論這個問題。

In terms of CapEx, one of the nice benefits of the ADESA acquisition is we do expect it to meaningfully reduce our quarterly CapEx outflows from the levels that we've been at over the past several quarters. And the reason for that is we have been spending a significant amount through 2021 and early 2022 on building out our own Carvana greenfield IRCs. That's been a meaningful use of capital expenditures for us. Now with the ADESA locations online, we do expect to be outlaying meaningfully less CapEx on certainly Carvana greenfield IRCs and then in general. So I think that's the directional guidance that I would give there.

就資本支出而言，收購 ADESA 的一大好處是，我們確實希望它能夠顯著減少我們過去幾個季度的季度資本支出流出量。其原因是，到 2021 年和 2022 年初，我們一直在花費大量資金來構建我們自己的 Carvana 綠地 IRC。這對我們來說是一種有意義的資本支出用途。現在，隨著 ADESA 的位置在線，我們確實希望在 Carvana 綠地 IRC 上花費更少的資本支出，然後是一般情況下。所以我認為這就是我要在那裡提供的方向性指導。

Great. And then just kind of switching gears a little bit on like, I guess, financing GPU. You guys talked about the $600 sequential impact from the compressing ABS spreads normalizing. I guess -- I mean is there any way to kind of help us think about like what a normal level of Other GPU should be?

偉大的。然後只是稍微切換一下，我想，為 GPU 提供資金。你們談到了壓縮 ABS 利差正常化對 600 美元的連續影響。我猜——我的意思是有什麼方法可以幫助我們思考其他 GPU 的正常級別應該是什麼？

Sure. So I mean I think we have talked a little bit about Other GPU. I think we had a strong year on Other GPU in 2021. We do think there was tailwinds to our Other GPU in 2021 that came from elevated industry-wide used vehicle prices because basically, the way that, that works is the higher used vehicle prices lead to higher average loan sizes, which leads to higher Other GPU, other things being equal. We sized that about $150 per unit.

當然。所以我的意思是我認為我們已經討論了一些關於其他 GPU 的內容。我認為我們在 2021 年的其他 GPU 方面表現強勁。我們確實認為 2021 年我們的其他 GPU 有順風，這來自於整個行業的二手車價格上漲，因為基本上，這種運作方式是二手車價格上漲導致更高的平均貸款規模，從而導致更高的其他 GPU，其他條件相同。我們的大小約為每單位 150 美元。

And then I think the other point that I would make on Other GPU is we see significant opportunities in front of us to expand Other GPU from a fundamental perspective off of what we've seen historically. I think that takes the form of fundamental improvements in the finance platform, other fundamental improvements in ancillary products, including existing and new ancillary products. So I think overall, we feel like we built a business to generate very significant other revenues and very significant Other GPU over time. I think Q1 was certainly an outlier, not representative at all of what we would expect to see on a normalized basis.

然後我認為我要在其他 GPU 上提出的另一點是，我們看到了從歷史上所見的基本角度擴展其他 GPU 的重大機會。我認為這表現為金融平台的根本性改進，輔助產品的其他根本性改進，包括現有和新的輔助產品。所以我認為總的來說，我們覺得我們建立了一個業務，隨著時間的推移產生非常重要的其他收入和非常重要的其他 GPU。我認為第一季度肯定是一個異常值，完全不能代表我們在標準化基礎上所期望看到的情況。

The next question comes from Chris Bottiglieri with BNP.

下一個問題來自 BNP 的 Chris Bottigieri。

Yes. I guess the first question is one of your peers today highlighted that there's been some chatter that ADESA is losing a bunch of its OEM relationships because of the acquisition. So I just want to get a sense for like as you think about the EBITDA you've acquired, what type of attrition standards that you've -- attrition estimates you've assumed. And then two, I guess, just like bigger picture, is there any opportunity to restructure the deal to incorporate some of this? Do you have to pay a breakage fee if you walk away from a deal? It'd just be helpful to think through that before you approach the capital markets.

是的。我想第一個問題是你的一位同行今天強調說，ADESA 因收購而失去了一堆 OEM 關係。因此，當您考慮您獲得的 EBITDA 時，我只是想了解一下，您所採用的減員標準是什麼類型的 - 您假設的減員估計。然後是兩個，我想，就像更大的圖景一樣，是否有機會重組交易以納入其中的一些內容？如果您放棄交易，您是否需要支付違約金？在您進入資本市場之前仔細考慮一下會很有幫助。

Sure. So let me just start with the reiteration of how excited we are about this transaction. We do think it's -- has the potential to be a truly transformative transaction, giving us a nationwide footprint, the capacity to produce a lot more cars, the ability to put those cars closer to customers, to shrink delivery times, to reduce delivery costs, to enhance the customer experience and to do it at greater volume and to do it all faster and also to accelerate our path to our long-term financial model because of the benefits of those locations. So we're extremely excited about that. And then we're also excited about the auction business itself and the way that, that kind of works when paired with the Carvana business.

當然。因此，讓我首先重申我們對這筆交易的興奮程度。我們確實認為它有可能成為真正的變革性交易，讓我們在全國范圍內擁有足跡，生產更多汽車的能力，讓這些汽車更靠近客戶的能力，縮短交貨時間，降低交貨成本，以增強客戶體驗並以更大的數量和更快的速度完成這一切，並且由於這些位置的好處，還加快了我們通往長期財務模型的道路。所以我們對此感到非常興奮。然後我們也對拍賣業務本身以及與 Carvana 業務配對時的工作方式感到興奮。

So I want to start there, and that dominates anything that happens kind of quarter-to-quarter, day-to-day or any other results. I do think that there has been -- across the auction business in general, across all different auction groups, there has been something of a reduction in volume over the last quarter, much like we've seen in retail. And I think ADESA has not been immune to that. I think there have been a small handful of both buyers and sellers who have elected, at least in the short term, to not do business with ADESA as part of the transaction. That's actually probably even maybe a little less than we would have anticipated so far.

所以我想從那裡開始，它支配著每季度、每一天或任何其他結果發生的任何事情。我確實認為，在整個拍賣行業，在所有不同的拍賣集團中，上個季度的成交量都有所減少，就像我們在零售業看到的那樣。我認為 ADESA 並沒有對此免疫。我認為，至少在短期內，有少數買家和賣家選擇不與 ADESA 開展業務作為交易的一部分。這實際上可能甚至比我們迄今為止預期的要少一些。

We've heard some really positive news as well. We don't think that that's actually flowing through and impacting the results in a way that is noticeable as of yet. So I think most importantly, we are extremely excited about the transaction. It's very much a long-term foundational view that is generating that excitement. And that extends across reconditioning, logistics and the exciting things that we can do together with the auction. So we're excited. I think there will probably be some of that noise. Maybe there's a little bit more of that in the future. But it's been -- it has not been at a level that is concerning, at least to us.

我們也聽到了一些非常積極的消息。我們認為這實際上並沒有以一種明顯的方式流過並影響結果。所以我認為最重要的是，我們對這筆交易感到非常興奮。這是一個非常長期的基礎觀點，它產生了這種興奮。這延伸到翻新、物流和我們可以與拍賣一起做的令人興奮的事情。所以我們很興奮。我認為可能會有一些噪音。也許將來會有更多這樣的事情。但它一直 - 它並沒有達到令人擔憂的程度，至少對我們而言。

Got you. That's helpful. Then just a related follow-up. It looks like there's an extra $1 billion of capital being raised now. Can you maybe just talk about that? Is it just because of, frankly, how scary the macro backdrop is, you're just being a little bit conservative with the balance sheet? Or would you look to kind of repay some debt outstanding with some of the proceeds? Trying to understand where the extra $1 billion comes from. And I apologize if you already addressed this.

得到你。這很有幫助。然後只是一個相關的後續行動。看起來現在正在籌集額外的 10 億美元資金。你能談談嗎？坦率地說，是因為宏觀背景有多可怕，你只是對資產負債表有點保守嗎？或者你會希望用一些收益來償還一些未償債務嗎？試圖了解額外的 10 億美元從何而來。如果您已經解決了這個問題，我深表歉意。

No, you're good. So what I would say is I think the way that we've chosen to structure this purchase and the capital that we're raising is aimed at giving us maximum flexibility. It dramatically enhances our liquidity position. I think it does give us a lot of flexibility in the future to do interesting things. Undoubtedly, this quarter is not what we were planning for. We both hit in our prepared remarks. It's in the shareholder letter. We do plan for growth 6 to 12 months in advance. The world looks very different 6, 12 months ago.

不，你很好。所以我想說的是，我認為我們選擇構建此次收購的方式以及我們籌集的資金旨在為我們提供最大的靈活性。它極大地增強了我們的流動性狀況。我認為它確實為我們在未來做有趣的事情提供了很大的靈活性。毫無疑問，這個季度不是我們計劃的。我們都擊中了我們準備好的言論。寫在股東信裡。我們會提前 6 到 12 個月制定增長計劃。 6、12 個月前的世界看起來非常不同。

And so we built for a different environment than we find ourselves in today. That had costs. Those show up in the results that we're reporting. And now we're starting from a worse place than we would have liked to start. And so I think for the remainder of this year, we have to kind of dig out of that hole a little bit.

因此，我們構建的環境與我們今天所處的環境不同。那是有代價的。這些顯示在我們報告的結果中。而現在我們的起點比我們原本希望的更糟糕。所以我認為在今年餘下的時間裡，我們必須從這個漏洞中挖掘出一點點。

So that also generates a rationale for a little bit of additional cushion. And then obviously, the macro backdrop is uncertain. And I think that extends to the broader macro economy and also to the way the auto industry is going to evolve from here. There are some pretty unique things happening in the auto industry these days that I at least haven't seen in my career.

所以這也產生了一點額外緩衝的理由。然後很明顯，宏觀背景是不確定的。我認為這延伸到更廣泛的宏觀經濟，也延伸到汽車行業將從這裡發展的方式。這些天來，汽車行業發生了一些非常獨特的事情，至少我在我的職業生涯中沒有見過。

And so we think that given the opportunity that we've got, the size of that opportunity, the strength of which our customers have responded to our offering over the last 9 years, the market share that we've seen continually growing across our markets, the continued market share growth that we've seen, the addition of ADESA and the ability for us to build into that opportunity, we just want to make sure that we position ourselves very well to ride out whatever storm may or may not come. And so I think that this structure gives us the ability to do that. It gives us the ability to continue to run our play. And that's what we're going to do because we think the opportunity is absolutely massive.

因此，我們認為，鑑於我們擁有的機會、機會的規模、過去 9 年來客戶對我們產品的反應力度，我們看到的市場份額在我們的市場中不斷增長，我們看到的持續市場份額增長，ADESA 的加入以及我們利用這一機會的能力，我們只是想確保我們能夠很好地定位自己，以度過可能會或可能不會到來的任何風暴。所以我認為這種結構使我們有能力做到這一點。它使我們有能力繼續進行我們的比賽。這就是我們要做的，因為我們認為機會絕對是巨大的。

The next question comes from John Colantuoni with Jefferies.

下一個問題來自 Jefferies 的 John Colantuoni。

So the shareholder letter mentioned aligning revenue and costs over the coming quarters while also mentioning that profitability suffered somewhat in Q1 from having a high level of fixed costs. Maybe you could just help square those 2 comments and also help detail some of the levers you have to become more efficient over the coming quarters.

因此，股東信中提到在未來幾個季度調整收入和成本，同時還提到第一季度的盈利能力因固定成本高企而受到影響。也許您可以幫助解決這兩條評論，並幫助詳細說明您必須在未來幾個季度變得更有效率的一些槓桿。

Sure. So I mean, first of all, let's walk through how I think the numbers work in the simplest way we can. So as we said, we aim for growth 6 to 12 months in advance. And that's because we've grown at a very fast rate. We do have real ops. Our growth is not continuous and smooth. It tends to be discontinuous around tax season, which is the end of February, early March. So that requires planning, and we have to build up our operational capacity ahead of time.

當然。所以我的意思是，首先，讓我們看看我認為這些數字是如何以最簡單的方式工作的。正如我們所說，我們的目標是提前 6 到 12 個月實現增長。那是因為我們的成長速度非常快。我們確實有真正的行動。我們的成長不是連續和平穩的。它往往在稅收季節（即 2 月底、3 月初）前後不連續。所以這需要規劃，我們必須提前建立我們的運營能力。

If we go back in time to Q4, we grew at 57%. In Q3, we're growing at 74%. So we clearly were growing at higher rates, and we were anticipating higher rates of sales in Q1 because we didn't appreciate what would happen industry-wide with affordability and interest rates and consumer sentiment, everything pushing overall volumes down. And so we built more capacity. And so one way to look at that is if you look at our SG&A per unit, it's at levels that we haven't been at in a really long time. And we've been at much, much lower levels. We've been on the order of $2,500 less many times in our history.

如果我們回到第四季度，我們增長了 57%。在第三季度，我們以 74% 的速度增長。因此，我們顯然正在以更高的速度增長，並且我們預計第一季度的銷售率會更高，因為我們不了解整個行業會發生什麼，包括可負擔性、利率和消費者情緒，這一切都會推動整體銷量下降。所以我們建立了更多的容量。因此，一種看待這一點的方法是，如果您查看我們每單位的 SG&A，它處於我們很長時間沒有達到的水平。而且我們的水平要低得多。在我們的歷史上，我們已經多次減少了 2,500 美元。

And so even if we just kind of do a simple math there and say we would have aimed for this level of growth and not kind of built for a higher level of growth across 100,000 sales, that's $250 million, that's a really big difference. And so we built for more than showed up. And I think that's where we find ourselves today. The other impact that kind of drove the results was some of that kind of extra capacity we built also does flow through COGS, and it impacted various GPU line items, and then we saw interest rates move back.

因此，即使我們只是在那裡做一個簡單的數學運算，並說我們的目標是實現這種增長水平，而不是為 100,000 次銷售額的更高水平的增長而建立，那就是 2.5 億美元，這確實是一個很大的差異。所以我們建造的不僅僅是出現。我認為這就是我們今天所處的位置。推動結果的另一個影響是我們建立的一些額外容量也確實流經了 COGS，它影響了各種 GPU 產品線，然後我們看到利率回落。

And so some of those things kind of led us to where we are. I think going forward, the most important thing that we can do is we just need to align our cost levels with sales. And the good news is we've been growing market share very consistently even through this environment. So the underlying business continues to grow relative to the market. We grew at 14% in the quarter, which isn't as fast as we would have liked, but it's very solid in light of a shrinking environment. We continue to see more evidence of the underlying demand growth if we look a bit deeper. We pointed to the statistic of customers over 700 FICO grew at 50% in the quarter. Across all of our cohorts, we saw growth year-over-year in the quarter despite the shrinking market.

所以其中一些事情讓我們走到了現在的位置。我認為展望未來，我們能做的最重要的事情就是我們只需要使我們的成本水平與銷售保持一致。好消息是，即使在這種環境下，我們的市場份額也一直在持續增長。因此，基礎業務相對於市場繼續增長。我們在本季度以 14% 的速度增長，這並沒有我們希望的那麼快，但鑑於環境萎縮，它非常穩定。如果我們再深入一點，我們將繼續看到更多潛在需求增長的證據。我們指出，本季度超過 700 家 FICO 客戶的統計數據增長了 50%。儘管市場萎縮，但在我們所有的團隊中，我們在本季度看到了同比增長。

So I think what we have to do now is we just have to continue to position the business to benefit from that growth. We have to try to do our best to understand what's going to happen in the macro environment because as we're continuing to take market share, there's a question about what's going on with the aggregate level of sales across the industry. As long as that's still shrinking, that will be a headwind to growth. When that abates and even stabilizes somewhere, that should be less of a headwind, which will be beneficial. And then at some point, that will reverse and will turn into a tailwind.

所以我認為我們現在要做的就是繼續定位業務以從這種增長中受益。我們必須盡最大努力了解宏觀環境中會發生什麼，因為隨著我們繼續佔據市場份額，整個行業的總體銷售水平會發生什麼問題。只要它仍在萎縮，那將是增長的逆風。當這種情況減弱甚至穩定在某個地方時，逆風應該會減少，這將是有益的。然後在某個時候，這將逆轉並變成順風。

And then we also have some operational levers that we have that are in our control. We talked about -- we definitely took a hit from Omicron and logistics network. And then that was extended by winter storms. And then as we've opened 3 inspection centers in the last quarter and one in the quarter before it and we've got kind of inventory in different places that grew a little faster than we anticipated, that put a little bit of extra strain on the network. Unfortunately, that extra strain has put us in a position where we have not yet increased visibility of inventory across our network to customers everywhere.

然後我們還有一些我們可以控制的操作槓桿。我們談到了——我們肯定受到了 Omicron 和物流網絡的影響。然後，冬季風暴延長了這一時間。然後，由於我們在上個季度開設了 3 個檢驗中心，在上個季度開設了一個檢驗中心，而且我們在不同地方的庫存增長速度比我們預期的要快一些，這給我們帶來了一些額外的壓力網絡。不幸的是，這種額外的壓力使我們處於這樣一個境地，即我們尚未提高我們網絡中的庫存對各地客戶的可見性。

So those are operational undertakings that we're very focused on. We want to try to get our logistics network back to where it was a year ago and then continue to proceed positively from there. That would lead to faster delivery times and greater sales, all else constant. And then that puts us in a spot to be able to make inventory visible, which should also lead to greater sales, all else constant. And so that's the kind of easiest and most important way to get back to balances to drive up sales.

因此，這些是我們非常關注的運營任務。我們希望努力讓我們的物流網絡恢復到一年前的水平，然後從那裡繼續積極推進。這將導致更快的交貨時間和更大的銷售額，其他一切都保持不變。然後這使我們能夠使庫存可見，這也應該導致更大的銷售，其他一切都保持不變。所以這是恢復餘額以推動銷售的最簡單和最重要的方法。

And then I think something that we're trying to do internally and something that I'm incredibly proud of the team for is every moment, whether it's the moment you plan for or it's a little bit different than the moment you anticipated, it is some sort of an opportunity. And as a company for the last 9 years, we've been characterized by sprinting as fast as we possibly can to keep up with the demand that we've seen. And I think the company has done a great job. The team has done a great job keeping up with that growth and growing GPU and levering EBITDA. But undoubtedly, when you're growing that fast, there are just trade-offs that get made, and there are priorities that you have to kind of surrender to.

然後我認為我們在內部嘗試做的事情以及我為團隊感到無比自豪的事情是每一刻，無論是您計劃的那一刻，還是與您預期的那一刻有點不同，它是某種機會。作為一家過去 9 年的公司，我們的特點是盡可能快地衝刺以滿足我們所看到的需求。而且我認為公司做得很好。該團隊在跟上這種增長和不斷增長的 GPU 並利用 EBITDA 方面做得很好。但毫無疑問，當你成長得如此之快時，你只能做出取捨，而且你必須放棄一些優先事項。

And so growth usually wins. And that means that kind of cost reductions oftentimes do take a back seat. And we haven't had a lot of opportunities where there's less immediate pressure on us to grow. And I think the advantage that we have today and the opportunity we have today is we do have excess capacity. And so we've got the team pointing their energy at let's find ways to get more efficient and faster than we otherwise would have because we still got all this effort, and now we have this new opportunity where we're not pointing a lot of that effort in the direction of just keeping our head above water with growth.

所以增長通常會獲勝。這意味著這種成本降低通常會退居二線。而且我們沒有很多機會可以減少對我們增長的直接壓力。我認為我們今天擁有的優勢和我們今天擁有的機會是我們確實有產能過剩。所以我們讓團隊把精力放在讓我們想辦法提高效率和速度，因為我們仍然付出了所有這些努力，現在我們有了這個新的機會，我們沒有指出很多這種努力只是為了讓我們的頭腦保持在水面之上並隨著增長而努力。

And so that's the other big opportunity that we've got. And somewhere in the mix there between growing sales as a result of our market share growth, growing sales as a result of continuing to improve our operations with the overlay of whatever happens in the market and then getting more efficient on expenses because of this opportunity that we've got, we expect to get back in balance, and then we'll continue to build from there. So that's our plan, and we feel really good about it.

這就是我們擁有的另一個重大機會。在我們的市場份額增長導致銷售額增長、通過覆蓋市場上發生的任何事情來繼續改善我們的運營、然後因為這個機會而在費用上變得更有效率的結果之間的某個地方我們已經有了，我們希望恢復平衡，然後我們將繼續從那裡建立。這就是我們的計劃，我們對此感覺非常好。

Just wanted to quickly ask about the proposed offering from this morning -- from this afternoon, sorry. It sounds like last quarter, the $1 billion of additional financing was being mostly invested into the ADESA assets. But the proposed offering mentioned that you'll also be now investing that $1 billion into working capital and general corporate purposes in addition to that, the investments in the ADESA assets. So 2 questions -- and that's also in addition to raising an additional $1 billion in equity.

只是想快速詢問一下今天上午的提議——從今天下午開始，抱歉。聽起來像上個季度，10 億美元的額外融資主要投資於 ADESA 資產。但提議的發行提到，除了對 ADESA 資產的投資之外，您現在還將將 10 億美元投資於營運資金和一般企業用途。所以有兩個問題——這也是除了籌集額外的 10 億美元股權之外的問題。

So 2 questions here. Can you just quantify how much of that $1 billion you'll be investing into each of the buckets that you outlined in the proposed offering? And then second, what changed since last quarter that's necessitating an additional $2 billion in cash?

所以這裡有2個問題。您能否量化一下您將在提議的發行中概述的每個桶中投資的 10 億美元中的多少？其次，自上個季度以來發生了什麼變化，需要額外的 20 億美元現金？

Sure. So on the construction improvements to the ADESA locations, there's -- nothing's changed there. So we still expect to invest approximately $1 billion over a period of multiple years in the ADESA locations in order to move them from what we estimate is about 200,000 infrastructure capacity today, if fully staffed, from an annual retail reconditioning perspective up to 2 million annual units of production capacity at full utilization when fully staffed, which is our goal for the ADESA locations. So that is exactly the same as we've always thought about it. I think we do plan to, yes, fill out the locations. We expect that to cost about $1 billion over a period of multiple years.

當然。因此，關於 ADESA 地點的建設改進，那裡沒有任何變化。因此，我們仍預計在多年的時間裡在 ADESA 地點投資約 10 億美元，以便將它們從我們估計的今天大約 200,000 個基礎設施容量（如果配備齊全的話）從每年零售翻新的角度提高到每年 200 萬在人員配備齊全的情況下，充分利用生產能力的單位，這是我們對 ADESA 地點的目標。所以這和我們一直想的完全一樣。我認為我們確實計劃，是的，填寫位置。我們預計這將在多年內耗資約 10 億美元。

In terms of the additional capital, I mean, I think the way we're thinking about that is we have a very big opportunity as a company. I think we're extremely excited about the opportunity in front of us to take meaningful market share, to drive strong unit economics, to take advantage of the ADESA acquisition, to get additional reconditioning capacity closer to more customers, to improve customer experience and speed delivery times, take advantage of the logistics network benefits that come from having a more broadly distributed footprint.

就額外資本而言，我的意思是，我認為我們正在考慮的方式是，作為一家公司，我們有一個非常大的機會。我認為我們非常高興有機會獲得有意義的市場份額，推動強勁的單位經濟，利用對 ADESA 的收購，讓更多的翻新能力更接近更多客戶，改善客戶體驗和速度交貨時間，利用分佈更廣泛的足跡所帶來的物流網絡優勢。

And so I think we decided to raise that additional capital just to allow us to completely focus on that goal, building toward our long-term model and to stop having conversations about liquidity and what happens in a deep recession and a prolonged recession and all those sorts of things. So I think we feel really good about the transaction structure that we've put together. I think we feel great about the ADESA acquisition and the overall trajectory that, that places us on.

因此，我認為我們決定籌集額外資金只是為了讓我們能夠完全專注於該目標，朝著我們的長期模型發展，並停止討論流動性以及在深度衰退和長期衰退中會發生什麼以及所有這些各種各樣的事情。所以我認為我們對我們整合的交易結構感覺非常好。我認為我們對 ADESA 的收購以及我們所處的整體軌跡感覺很好。

The next question comes from Michael Montani with Evercore ISI.

下一個問題來自 Evercore ISI 的 Michael Montani。

I had 2 questions. The first one was around the demand side. So last quarter, you had given some color around how units grew for households with $100,000 plus of income versus those with $50,000. So I was wondering if you could discuss that and/or the impact of stimulus, which we think could have been 500 bps to 1,000 bps. And then I had a separate question.

我有 2 個問題。第一個是圍繞需求方。因此，上個季度，您對收入超過 100,000 美元的家庭與收入超過 50,000 美元的家庭的單位增長情況進行了一些說明。所以我想知道你是否可以討論這個和/或刺激的影響，我們認為這可能是 500 到 1000 個基點。然後我有一個單獨的問題。

Sure. So what I would say is, at a high level, those kinds of metrics remain the same or kind of even more severe, where those with higher incomes have outgrown those with lower incomes by even more recently. So I think this kind of theme of affordability has continued to get stronger over the last several months. So whether you're looking at that in income, in credit, we provided the statistic with customers over 700 FICO or in age, I think that basically shows up anywhere. So that is clearly something that is very active in terms of what's going on in the auto industry today. Those with higher incomes and better credit are still buying cars at much higher levels than those with lower incomes and lower credit in this environment.

當然。所以我想說的是，在較高的水平上，這些指標保持不變或什至更嚴格，那些收入較高的人最近超過了收入較低的人。所以我認為這種負擔能力的主題在過去幾個月裡繼續變得更加強烈。因此，無論您是在收入還是信用方面，我們都提供了超過 700 名 FICO 或年齡的客戶的統計數據，我認為這基本上會出現在任何地方。因此，就當今汽車行業的情況而言，這顯然是非常活躍的事情。在這種環境下，那些收入較高、信用較好的人購買汽車的水平仍遠高於收入較低、信用較低的人。

I think it's hard to disentangle the stimulus. That -- there were several different ways of stimulus last year and the year before, and it's hard for us to precisely disentangle that. Clearly, that is something we're comping over. Last year, it was tax season, and there as a little bit of stimulus story thereafter. And this year, tax season, in general, I would say, was much softer in terms of impact than tax seasons historically have been. I think it's hard to disentangle the kind of comping stimulus effect from the affordability issues and the general consumer confidence and just kind of socioeconomic issues and everything going on in the world. But clearly, it all played something of a role.

我認為很難解開刺激因素。那 - 去年和前一年有幾種不同的刺激方式，我們很難準確地解開這一點。顯然，這是我們正在考慮的事情。去年是報稅季，此後又出現了一些刺激的故事。而今年，總的來說，稅收季節的影響比歷史上的稅收季節要軟得多。我認為很難將這種刺激效應與負擔能力問題和一般消費者信心以及社會經濟問題以及世界上正在發生的一切分開。但很明顯，這一切都起到了一定的作用。

Okay. That's helpful. And then just on the headcount front, we had seen a pretty significant kind of quarter-on-quarter reduction in job openings. And I'm just wondering if you could talk to kind of if you assume volumes are relatively similar or improved kind of only modestly. How long do you think it would take to kind of rightsize the cost structure for that kind of environment? Is it kind of a 1-quarter thing? Or is it more 2 to 3 quarters?

好的。這很有幫助。然後就在員工人數方面，我們看到職位空缺出現了相當大的季度環比減少。我只是想知道如果您假設交易量相對相似或僅適度改進，您是否可以交談。您認為在這種環境下調整成本結構需要多長時間？這是一種四分之一的東西嗎？還是更多的 2 到 3 個季度？

Sure. So I don't think we're going to give precise time lines on that. What I'll say is we're going to be working hard in every direction. We've been growing market share quickly. We clearly have operational opportunities that we expect will drive additional growth, all else constant. We're clearly focused from a product perspective on driving additional affordability, which I think will be helpful for customers. And then we're also very focused on gaining cost efficiencies as quickly as we can.

當然。所以我認為我們不會就此給出準確的時間表。我要說的是，我們將在各個方向努力工作。我們的市場份額一直在快速增長。我們顯然擁有我們預計將推動額外增長的運營機會，其他一切都保持不變。從產品的角度來看，我們顯然專注於推動額外的負擔能力，我認為這將對客戶有所幫助。然後我們也非常專注於盡快提高成本效率。

I would say our plan right now is sprint in all those different directions. And then we'll see where that all comes. I think it's -- historically, it's been easier for us to provide specific guidance and forecast when we're trying to predict what's going on with our demand and what's going on with our execution. I think today, we have a significant overlay of dynamism in the economy broadly. And I think we want to be careful about being too specific in any of our projections as a result of that.

我想說我們現在的計劃是朝所有這些不同的方向衝刺。然後我們會看到這一切都來自哪裡。我認為這是 - 從歷史上看，當我們試圖預測我們的需求發生了什麼以及我們的執行發生了什麼時，我們更容易提供具體的指導和預測。我認為今天，我們在廣泛的經濟中擁有顯著的活力。因此，我認為我們要小心不要在我們的任何預測中過於具體。

(Operator Instructions) The next question today comes from Brian Nagel with Oppenheimer.

（操作員說明）今天的下一個問題來自奧本海默的 Brian Nagel。

So I apologize, I want to focus a bit shorter term. But just there was a lot of comment -- you made a lot of comments, a lot of detail with regard to the effects in the quarter being transitory. Could you help us -- could you talk more about the trend through the quarter than you're hearing even into Q2, both with unit sales as well as GPU, and maybe some of the early improvements you're already starting to see as some of these factors begin to abate?

所以我很抱歉，我想把注意力集中在短期內。但只是有很多評論——你做了很多評論，很多關於本季度影響的細節都是暫時的。你能幫助我們嗎——你能不能更多地談論整個季度的趨勢，甚至比你聽到的第二季度還要多，包括單位銷售和 GPU，也許你已經開始看到一些早期的改進這些因素中的哪些開始減弱？

Sure. Well, I think we'll definitely have to talk about Q1. I mean in Q1, I would say it was, for the most part, just kind of continually -- it looked like the industry environment was deteriorating throughout is, I think, probably the simplest way to characterize that. And again, disentangling how much of that was affordability, how much of that was just general consumer confidence or interest rates is very, very hard. But I think just looking at auto sales across the industry and looking at auto sales of peers, it looked like it was deteriorating throughout the quarter. And I think it's very, very early in Q2, so I don't think we're going to provide too specific of a view there.

當然。好吧，我想我們肯定要談談第一季度。我的意思是，在第一季度，我想說的是，在大多數情況下，只是持續不斷地——我認為，整個行業環境似乎都在惡化，這可能是描述這一點的最簡單方法。再一次，弄清楚其中有多少是負擔能力，有多少只是一般消費者信心或利率，非常非常困難。但我認為，僅看看整個行業的汽車銷量和同行的汽車銷量，整個季度看起來都在惡化。而且我認為它在第二季度非常非常早，所以我認為我們不會在那裡提供太具體的觀點。

But I do think that from the time that we last spoke and had our last earnings call, things clearly continued to deteriorate from an industry perspective. Now we do think that's transitory. There's a question of duration. But this industry is a $40 million transaction industry. It's been that way for a very long time. If you kind of zoom out over any reasonable period of time, that's what it averages. And kind of that -- those transactions come from the fact that there's 270 million cars on the road and consumers trade with each other once every 6.75 years, and that's kind of the math that works out.

但我確實認為，從我們上次發言並召開上次財報電話會議開始，從行業角度來看，情況顯然在繼續惡化。現在我們確實認為這是暫時的。有一個持續時間的問題。但這個行業是一個 4000 萬美元的交易行業。很長一段時間都是這樣。如果您在任何合理的時間段內縮小，這就是它的平均值。就這樣 - 這些交易來自這樣一個事實，即道路上有 2.7 億輛汽車，消費者每 6.75 年相互交易一次，這是一種可以計算的數學。

In a moment like this, it gets very easy for many people to kind of put off the decision to purchase a car for many possible underlying reasons. And so historically, you can see car sales slow for a period. And generally, that generates pent-up demand, and it alleviates relatively quickly. I think we do have extra dynamics going on right now. We have inflation. We have reduced new car production. We have car prices that are massively outpacing inflation in terms of price increases.

在這樣的時刻，許多人很容易因為許多潛在的原因推遲購買汽車的決定。所以從歷史上看，你可以看到汽車銷售在一段時間內放緩。通常，這會產生被壓抑的需求，並且會相對較快地緩解。我認為我們現在確實有額外的動力。我們有通貨膨脹。我們減少了新車的生產。我們的汽車價格在價格上漲方面大大超過了通貨膨脹。

So I think it's hard to know exactly how those forces will all play out in the near term. I think from our perspective, we made this comment in prepared remarks, the most important thing we can do is continue to build towards the structural opportunity that sits in front of us, which is this 40 million opportunity, and continue to make gains as a company and then just position ourselves to be resilient to whatever the macro economy brings us. And we think capital is a big part of that, and we think we've positioned ourselves well for whatever that does bring.

所以我認為很難確切地知道這些力量在短期內將如何發揮作用。我認為從我們的角度來看，我們在準備好的評論中發表了這個評論，我們能做的最重要的事情是繼續朝著擺在我們面前的結構性機會，也就是這 4000 萬機會，並繼續獲得收益作為公司，然後將自己定位為對宏觀經濟給我們帶來的任何東西都具有彈性。我們認為資本是其中的重要組成部分，我們認為我們已經為自己帶來的一切做好了準備。

That's helpful. And then so just to follow up on that. I mean you're talking primarily about the unit sales. But with regard to -- on the GPU side in particular, the reconditioning costs, have you started to see that dynamic improve yet?

這很有幫助。然後只是為了跟進。我的意思是你主要是在談論單位銷售。但是關於——特別是在 GPU 方面，修復成本，您是否開始看到動態改善？

Sorry. So yes, so on the retail cost side. So I mean I do think that Omicron had very acute effects, for example, on the reconditioning centers, and we are moving further away from that. So I think that's beneficial, other things being equal. We definitely have been seeing improvements in the logistics network versus the most disrupted points. So I think that's beneficial, other things being equal. So I would say we are seeing some positive data there.

對不起。所以是的，所以在零售成本方面。所以我的意思是，我確實認為 Omicron 產生了非常嚴重的影響，例如，對修復中心的影響，而我們正在遠離這一點。所以我認為這是有益的，其他條件相同。我們肯定已經看到物流網絡與最受干擾的點相比有所改善。所以我認為這是有益的，其他條件相同。所以我想說我們在那裡看到了一些積極的數據。

The next question comes from Rajat Gupta from JPMorgan.

下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Rajat Gupta。

Just first one on just the consumer environment in the near term. In the shareholder letter, you mentioned that you're seeing a pretty substantial sequential improvement already in the order metrics, including sales. Is that primarily a function of just alleviating some of the capacity constraints or bottlenecks? Or is there something in the demand environment that's helping that? Just wanted to clarify that, and I have a follow-up.

只是短期內關於消費者環境的第一個。在股東信中，您提到您已經看到訂單指標（包括銷售額）已經有了相當大的連續改善。這主要是為了緩解一些容量限製或瓶頸嗎？還是需求環境中的某些東西對此有所幫助？只是想澄清一下，我有一個跟進。

Sure. So I think -- again, those things are a bit difficult to disentangle. But from a logistics perspective, for example, we have made some gains. We're -- if we kind of look at where we were a year ago and then compare ourselves to the peak, depending on what metric you're looking at, we've maybe made kind of half the gains back to where we would like to be if we were in the same spot as we were a year ago. And then we've got room to go from there. So I think there have been some benefits that are specific to Carvana that we believe are driving some benefit. And then we also do believe that we are growing market share.

當然。所以我認為——再一次，這些事情有點難以解開。但是從物流的角度來看，例如，我們已經取得了一些進展。我們 - 如果我們看看一年前的情況，然後將我們自己與峰值進行比較，這取決於你正在查看的指標，我們可能已經將一半的收益恢復到了我們會的地方就像我們一年前在同一個地方一樣。然後我們有空間從那裡去。因此，我認為 Carvana 有一些特定的好處，我們認為這些好處正在帶來一些好處。然後我們也相信我們正在增加市場份額。

And so as long as even kind of the rate of industry-wide sales shrinking reduces, all else constant, that should be positive for us as long as we continue to execute on our side. So I think -- like I said, it's very early in the quarter. We don't want to talk too much about it, but I think there have been some at least operational gains that we are making, and they are likely having a positive impact.

因此，只要全行業銷售萎縮的速度有所下降，在其他條件不變的情況下，這對我們來說應該是積極的，只要我們繼續站在我們這邊執行。所以我認為 - 就像我說的那樣，現在這個季度還很早。我們不想談論太多，但我認為我們至少在運營方面取得了一些進展，而且它們可能會產生積極的影響。

Got it. And the other thing you mentioned in the Other GPU that you are able to successfully pass on the benchmark increases through APRs in the month of April. Have you seen any impact on demand because of that? Or has that been very consistent versus what you would have expected? I mean some of your competitors had some different perspectives on that. So I was just curious like what you're seeing and like how is that influencing demand, if at all? Or is it all pretty much sticking pretty nicely?

知道了。您在其他 GPU 中提到的另一件事是，您能夠通過 4 月份的 APR 成功通過基準測試。您是否看到因此對需求產生任何影響？還是這與您的預期非常一致？我的意思是你的一些競爭對手對此有不同的看法。所以我只是很好奇你所看到的，如果有的話，它是如何影響需求的？或者這一切都非常好？

Sure. I would say all else constant, there's no question that increasing interest rates negatively impacts demand, and that's something that we try to make sure that we're measuring carefully all the time inside the company. I think the other thing that's true is that benchmark rates go up, and as risk spreads go up, the rest of the market also raises interest rates. And so from a kind of competitive option perspective, consumer options just in general kind of go up.

當然。我會說其他一切都保持不變，毫無疑問，提高利率會對需求產生負面影響，這是我們試圖確保我們在公司內部一直仔細衡量的事情。我認為另一件事是真實的，即基準利率上升，隨著風險利差的上升，市場的其他部分也提高了利率。因此，從一種競爭選擇的角度來看，消費者的選擇通常會上升。

And so I think that there is kind of this term that's often used that we've used in the past as well that interest rates are somewhat sticky where when they're going up, it's sometimes difficult to pass all of the increases on to customers instantly in a way that is economically optimal. It just tends to take a little bit longer because different groups do take different views and it takes a little bit of time to adjust. But generally, that adjustment period is not super long, and then the same is true on the other side as well.

所以我認為有一種我們過去經常使用的術語，以及利率有點粘性，當它們上升時，有時很難將所有的增長都轉嫁給客戶立即以經濟上最優的方式。只是往往需要更長的時間，因為不同的群體確實有不同的觀點，而且需要一點時間來調整。但一般來說，這個調整期不會超長，然後另一邊也是如此。

So I think undoubtedly, we would expect to see more demand if we were not raising interest rates with the environment. But I think that, that would be -- the rest of the market is also raising interest with the environment. And so I think that we are not seeing the same impacts that we would see if we were raising interest rates by ourselves and the market raising interest rates alongside us.

因此，我認為毫無疑問，如果我們不隨環境提高利率，我們預計會看到更多需求。但我認為，那將是——市場的其餘部分也在提高對環境的興趣。所以我認為，如果我們自己加息，市場和我們一起加息，我們不會看到同樣的影響。

The next question comes from Adam Jonas with Morgan Stanley.

下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的亞當喬納斯。

Ernie, what can you tell us about Project Catapult, please? You're referring to a lot of the cost actions. And based on the e-mails I'm getting tonight, your quarterly cash burn and how -- and what you can control to manage that even if it wasn't part of the plan is having a big impact on how long the capital that you're in process of raising can last you depending on outcome. So it sounds super important, but you mentioned logistics teams and some stuff, but I don't know if you could be a little more specific with those efficiency levers in terms of dollar terms or how we can dynamic that.

Ernie，你能告訴我們關於 Project Catapult 的事情嗎？你指的是很多成本行動。根據我今晚收到的電子郵件，你的季度現金消耗以及如何 - 以及你可以控制的管理方式，即使它不是計劃的一部分，也會對資金的持續時間產生重大影響。你正在籌款的過程中可以持續你取決於結果。所以這聽起來非常重要，但你提到了物流團隊和一些東西，但我不知道你是否可以更具體地了解這些效率槓桿，以美元計價，或者我們如何動態化。

Sure. Well, first of all, Project Catapult is the internal term that we use for the project that's running across all of our different operational groups right now. So that was a little bit of an internal call-out to our teams. There's a lot going on. Across every single operational team, there are very clear goals and very clear metrics and a cadence of kind of catching up and accountability to make sure that we can gain as quickly as we possibly can. And we really are excited internally about using this as an opportunity to make gains that are hard to make in moments where you have as much pressure as we've had on average from growth.

當然。嗯，首先，Project Catapult 是我們用於該項目的內部術語，該項目目前在我們所有不同的運營團隊中運行。所以這是對我們團隊的一點內部呼籲。有很多事情發生。在每個運營團隊中，都有非常明確的目標和非常明確的指標，以及一種追趕和問責的節奏，以確保我們能夠盡快獲得收益。我們真的很高興在內部利用這個機會來獲得在你面臨與我們平均增長壓力一樣大的時候很難獲得的收益。

So I think there are many, many different subcomponents to that plan, and it does cross every operational team and several product teams as well. So I don't even really know where to begin, but I would say that the overall theme is coiled the Catapult and put ourselves in a spot where we're really ready to efficiently grow when the market supports us and where we get gains in the near term in all these areas where we know we can be better and we finally have an opportunity to focus on it. So that's the general theme.

所以我認為這個計劃有很多很多不同的子組件，它確實跨越了每個運營團隊和幾個產品團隊。所以我什至不知道從哪裡開始，但我想說，整個主題是盤繞著彈射器，讓我們真正準備好在市場支持我們和我們獲得收益時有效增長在我們知道我們可以做得更好的所有這些領域的短期內，我們終於有機會專注於它。這就是總的主題。

So Ernie, I'm interpreting that as it's not purely a cost-cutting program. It's an efficiency program that can yield savings in a prolonged period of half the growth that you would have anticipated if 14% of that -- if that was prolonged and not what you're capacitized for that you could lower the burn rate in the next couple of quarters? Is that relevant?

所以厄尼，我的解釋是，它不僅僅是一個削減成本的計劃。這是一個效率計劃，可以在很長一段時間內節省一半的增長，如果其中的 14% 是您預期的增長 - 如果延長時間而不是您的能力，那麼您可以在接下來降低燃燒率幾個季度？這有關係嗎？

Yes. I think efficiency is kind of lower cost and simpler to scale up. And so I think it's the pursuit of efficiencies across all of our different operational teams.

是的。我認為效率是一種更低的成本，更容易擴大規模。所以我認為這是在我們所有不同的運營團隊中追求效率。

The next question comes from Seth Basham with Wedbush Securities.

下一個問題來自 Wedbush Securities 的 Seth Basham。

My first question is just a clarifying one on the last one. So you are in the process of cutting costs in certain areas of the business to reduce the cash burn.

我的第一個問題只是對最後一個問題的澄清。因此，您正在削減某些業務領域的成本，以減少現金消耗。

Sorry, that was your question. Yes. So we are working on these projects that I discussed to find efficiencies across the business. That extends to every operating team, and all else constant, we do expect that to reduce variable costs.

對不起，那是你的問題。是的。因此，我們正在開展我討論過的這些項目，以提高整個業務的效率。這延伸到每個運營團隊，並且其他一切都保持不變，我們確實希望這會降低可變成本。

Okay. And then my follow-up question is just understanding when you announced the ADESA deal, you were thinking of financing at that point in time, from my understanding, solely with debt. And now you're financing it partly with preferred equity and now there's an additional equity cushion. So what changed relative to that financing component for the ADESA acquisition and the improvements from the debt component and the preferred equity component between then and now.

好的。然後我的後續問題只是了解當您宣布與 ADESA 交易時，您當時正在考慮融資，據我了解，僅通過債務融資。現在你部分地用優先股為其融資，現在還有一個額外的股權緩衝。那麼，相對於 ADESA 收購的融資部分以及從那時到現在的債務部分和優先股部分的改進，發生了什麼變化。

Sure. So I think we can maybe separate that into 2. So one is the addition of equity. And I think that, that was driven by giving us more flexibility, as discussed earlier. We do think our opportunity is enormous. We think the market around us has moved a little bit. We think that suggests that we should put ourselves into a position where we can operate as flexibly as possible to take full advantage of the opportunity that we've got.

當然。所以我認為我們可以將其分成 2 個。所以一個是增加股權。而且我認為，正如前面所討論的，這是通過給予我們更大的靈活性來驅動的。我們確實認為我們的機會是巨大的。我們認為我們周圍的市場發生了一些變化。我們認為這表明我們應該把自己置於一個可以盡可能靈活地運作的位置，以充分利用我們所擁有的機會。

And so I think that's an addition. And then I think in the capital structure, we evaluated a lot of different possible solutions and evaluated those through a lot of different lenses, cost efficiency, flexibility, prepayability, and came down with this being the right capital structure. So I think there are a bunch of considerations there.

所以我認為這是一個補充。然後我認為在資本結構中，我們評估了許多不同的可能解決方案，並通過許多不同的視角、成本效率、靈活性、可預付性進行了評估，最終得出了正確的資本結構。所以我認為那裡有很多考慮因素。

The next question comes from Michael Baker with D.A. Davidson.

下一個問題來自 D.A. 的 Michael Baker。戴維森。

Okay. A couple real quick ones here, one, and then a follow up. Just on used car pricing in the industry, what's your view on where it's going? Some of the indexes seem to be coming down on a sequential basis, and then the year-over-year growth has been a little bit less than it has been. Yet you're seeing the opposite. Your used car -- your ASPs are up and up at an accelerating rate. One of your competitors that reported this morning, same thing, year-over-year increases were higher than last quarter, and sequentially, the prices are getting higher. So why the discrepancy, do you think? And where do you see used car prices going?

好的。這裡有幾個真正快速的，一個，然後是跟進。僅就行業中的二手車定價而言，您對其發展方向有何看法？一些指數似乎在連續下降，然後同比增長略低於以往。然而你看到的恰恰相反。您的二手車——您的 ASP 正在加速上升。你的一個競爭對手今天早上報告說，同樣的事情，同比增長高於上一季度，而且價格也越來越高。那麼為什麼會出現這種差異，你覺得呢？您認為二手車價格將走向何方？

Well, that's a very hard question. So let's start with maybe the discrepancy. I think the discrepancy could be partially in timing, and then it could also be the gap between wholesale markets and retail markets. So we definitely saw car prices.

嗯，這是一個非常難的問題。所以讓我們從可能的差異開始。我認為差異可能部分是時間上的，然後也可能是批發市場和零售市場之間的差距。所以我們肯定看到了汽車價格。

Let's start with wholesale pricing. We definitely saw wholesale prices kind of move up in the end of last year and into early this year. And then more recently, we've seen wholesale prices start to fall back a bit. But I think when you're comparing quarter-over-quarter, year-over-year, it just kind of depends on the blend of where car prices were across the sum of that period. And so I think maybe some of those discrepancies could just be a function of what different periods you're looking at and what different companies you're looking at.

讓我們從批發定價開始。我們確實看到去年年底和今年年初批發價格有所上漲。然後最近，我們看到批發價格開始回落一點。但我認為，當你比較季度環比、同比時，它只是取決於汽車價格在這段時間內的總和。因此，我認為其中一些差異可能只是您所關注的不同時期以及您所關注的不同公司的函數。

I think generally speaking, retail prices have been lagging wholesale prices. And generally speaking, they moved down a little bit more smoothly or up a little bit more smoothly. The way that a large portion of the market operates is that cars are kind of purchased at a point in time, and then they're financed on a floor plan, and they're kind of sold cost-plus for lack of a kind of more complicated description. There's a lot more that goes into it. I think that's a good first order way to think about it.

我認為總的來說，零售價格一直落後於批發價格。一般來說，他們向下移動更順暢一點，或者向上移動一點更順暢。大部分市場的運作方式是，汽車是在某個時間點購買的，然後在平面圖上為它們提供資金，並且由於缺乏一種更複雜的描述。還有很多內容。我認為這是一個很好的一階思考方式。

And so oftentimes, if wholesale prices drop, it's not necessarily clear that retail prices will immediately follow because many of the cars that are sitting on dealer lots were bought in the previous period, and there's debt against those cars at a price that was the prevailing price to that previous period. And oftentimes, dealers are not in a position to take loss on those cars or choose not to take a loss on those cars and say they'll just prices longer and then sell them at a higher price. So you tend to see a little bit more stability in retail prices.

通常情況下，如果批發價格下降，零售價格是否會立即跟進並不一定很清楚，因為許多位於經銷商批次的汽車是在前一時期購買的，而這些汽車的債務以當時的價格價格與上一時期相比。通常，經銷商無法承擔這些汽車的損失或選擇不承擔這些汽車的損失，並說他們只會定價更長，然後以更高的價格出售它們。因此，您往往會看到零售價格更加穩定。

Those -- I started with kind of the historical prices and then moved on to the dynamics and what can sometimes create a gap between wholesale and retail. As far as where it goes from here, I think the simple answer is I certainly don't know. I think today, depending on what kind of bucket of used car prices you're looking at, many cars are 40% more expensive than a year ago, whereas economy-wide, inflation is closer to 8%. So relative to other goods, cars are more expensive today than they have historically been. You would -- or I guess I would at least expect that over a medium period of time, cars will likely kind of have the same relationship to other goods that they've historically had. And so that would mean either more inflation or car prices will come down at some point.

那些——我從歷史價格開始，然後轉向動態，有時會在批發和零售之間造成差距。至於它從哪裡開始，我認為簡單的答案是我當然不知道。我認為今天，根據您所查看的二手車價格，許多汽車比一年前貴了 40%，而在整個經濟範圍內，通貨膨脹率接近 8%。所以相對於其他商品，今天的汽車比歷史上更貴。你會 - 或者我想我至少會期望在中期內，汽車可能會與它們歷史上擁有的其他商品具有相同的關係。因此，這將意味著更多的通貨膨脹或汽車價格將在某個時候下降。

And then I think probably the single biggest input to car prices today and the single biggest input to a lot of the unique dynamics that are happening across the new car market and the used car market is just new car production levels, which are obviously much lower than they've historically been. And so I think that it's hard to figure out how all that's going to balance out. And I think we'll be paying very close attention and trying to do the best job we can to predict it and trying to manage the business in a way that's resilient to whatever direction those things could move. But I don't think we're confident in precisely how it will work out.

然後我認為可能是當今汽車價格的最大單一投入，以及新車市場和二手車市場正在發生的許多獨特動態的單一最大投入只是新車生產水平，這顯然要低得多比他們歷史上的。所以我認為很難弄清楚這一切將如何平衡。而且我認為我們將密切關注並努力盡我們所能預測它並嘗試以一種對這些事情可能發展的任何方向具有彈性的方式來管理業務。但我認為我們對它的具體結果沒有信心。

I will say our hope is that car prices come down. I think all else constant, you would -- we would certainly prefer car prices to come down. I think in transition, there's a chance that, that would provide something of a headwind to retail GPU. I also think because of the dynamics discussed with kind of the gap between the wholesale market and the retail market, it's not obvious that headwind would be as strong as it might look if you saw wholesale prices move down. And then it also would clearly be a benefit to our customers if car prices were lower, and that would probably play a big part in returning the industry to normal, which would cause kind of the industry dynamics to reverse from what's been a headwind recently to a tailwind, which we think would be great for the business. So I think our hope is the car prices to go down. I think we would like to stay away from trying to precisely call it.

我會說我們的希望是汽車價格下降。我認為其他一切都保持不變，你會 - 我們當然希望汽車價格下降。我認為在過渡期間，有可能會給零售 GPU 帶來一些阻力。我還認為，由於討論了批發市場和零售市場之間的差距，如果你看到批發價格下跌，逆風並不像看起來那麼強烈。然後，如果汽車價格較低，顯然也會對我們的客戶有利，這可能會在行業恢復正常方面發揮重要作用，這將導致行業動態從最近的逆風中逆轉到順風，我們認為這對業務來說非常有用。所以我認為我們的希望是汽車價格下降。我認為我們不想嘗試精確地調用它。

Yes. That makes sense. And just a follow-up on that. You said in the past, Ernie, that the ideal environment is lower used car prices, as you just reiterated, but also lower interest rates. I think what we might get here is one of those lower car prices, but I think we're seeing higher interest rates. How would you sort of characterize that environment honestly, 1 to 10, let's say, as being -- 10 being the most ideal environment?

是的。這就說得通了。只是對此的跟進。厄尼，您過去說過，理想的環境是二手車價格較低，正如您剛才重申的那樣，而且利率也較低。我認為我們可能在這裡得到的是較低的汽車價格之一，但我認為我們看到了更高的利率。您如何誠實地描述該環境，1 到 10，比如說，10 是最理想的環境？

I mean I think if we're going with 1 to 10, I think 10 would have to be everything is low and competition gives up and consumers are excited. I think that would be 10. I think moving off of that ideal, I think the most important thing is cars that people can afford because of the sum of vehicle prices and interest rates, which the vast majority of consumers are financing their purchases. And so affordability for them is kind of the intersection of -- or the combination of both car prices and interest rates.

我的意思是我認為，如果我們從 1 到 10，我認為 10 必須是一切都很低，競爭放棄，消費者很興奮。我認為那將是 10。我認為擺脫這個理想，我認為最重要的是人們買得起的汽車，因為汽車價格和利率的總和，絕大多數消費者都在為他們的購買提供資金。因此，他們的負擔能力是汽車價格和利率的交集——或兩者的結合。

And then I just think stability. We feel like we've got an enormous opportunity, and we want to build into that opportunity. But building into that opportunity as efficiently as possible is made easier if we have clear visibility into what the future holds. And so if we had more stability in the market, I think that would be easier for us to just kind of stably grow and to be able to rely on what the market's going to do around us. And I think we care more about that probably than levels of either rates or prices but certainly would love for affordability to get better for our customers as well.

然後我只考慮穩定性。我們覺得我們有一個巨大的機會，我們希望利用這個機會。但是，如果我們對未來有清晰的了解，那麼盡可能有效地利用這個機會就會變得更加容易。因此，如果我們在市場上有更多的穩定性，我認為這對我們來說更容易穩定增長並能夠依賴市場在我們周圍的表現。而且我認為我們可能更關心這一點，而不是費率或價格水平，但肯定會喜歡負擔能力，以便為我們的客戶提供更好的服務。

The next question comes from Chris Pierce with Needham.

下一個問題來自 Chris Pierce 和 Needham。

Just 2. On the first one, we talked a lot about efficiency, but you guys spent $21 million more dollars to sell 8,000 less cars as far as advertising. So I just want to think about advertising. Is that something that was preplanned and that kind of -- the demand environment snuck on you guys? Or is that something that's kind of a bigger picture sacred cow? And the second question will be around credit spreads.

就 2。在第一個方面，我們談了很多關於效率的問題，但你們花了 2100 萬美元多花 2100 萬美元，少賣了 8000 輛汽車，就廣告而言。所以我只想考慮廣告。這是預先計劃好的事情嗎？需求環境偷偷摸摸地影響了你們？還是那是一種更大的圖景聖牛？第二個問題是關於信用利差的。

Sure. So what I would say on that is, I think, as I said, across the board, we build our plans out in advance. And then something that we've learned to do over time is be careful about yanking the wheel too much too quickly because generally, you regret it when you do. And I think when we talk about marketing in particular, we still remain a relatively young brand that's building a lot of awareness. And we think that there's a lot of value in continuing to build awareness and understanding of what we do and trust in what we do.

當然。所以我要說的是，我認為，正如我所說，全面地，我們提前製定了我們的計劃。然後隨著時間的推移，我們學會了做的事情是小心不要太快地拉輪子，因為一般來說，當你這樣做時你會後悔。我認為當我們特別談論營銷時，我們仍然是一個相對年輕的品牌，正在建立很多知名度。我們認為，繼續建立對我們所做的事情的認識和理解以及對我們所做的事情的信任是很有價值的。

And we also think that oftentimes, marketing is something that has a potentially long payoff. I think a lot of times, marketing dollars are thought of as kind of a direct investment where dollar goes in and a sale comes out. But the truth is a lot of what you're doing with marketing is getting impressions on people and communicating what you do and how you do it. And those impressions add up, and you build a brand with that. And the payoff of marketing can be long. And so we will look to make moves that we think are intelligent across the board across time as we're managing the business, but we also try to be careful to not yank the wheel too much. So that's part of what you're seeing.

而且我們還認為，營銷通常具有潛在的長期回報。我認為很多時候，營銷資金被認為是一種直接投資，其中美元進入並進行銷售。但事實是，你在營銷方面所做的很多事情都是為了給人們留下印象，並傳達你所做的事情以及你是如何做的。這些印象加起來，你就可以建立一個品牌。營銷的回報可能很長。因此，在我們管理業務的過程中，我們將尋求採取我們認為跨時間全面明智的舉措，但我們也盡量小心不要過度拉扯方向盤。這就是你所看到的一部分。

Understood. And then if I look at Q1 APR or some securitization versus Q4, if you're going to -- and we're talking about higher FICO score customers being a larger part of the growth. I guess can APR move higher because as interest rates move higher, even these customers, your best customers, will face higher rates? I'm just trying to figure out how the spread can widen because you've only got 2 levers and your yield levers are lower and you don't really have much control over it.

明白了。然後，如果我看一下第一季度的 APR 或與第四季度相比的一些證券化，如果你打算——我們談論的是更高的 FICO 得分客戶是增長的更大部分。我猜 APR 會不會走高，因為隨著利率走高，即使是這些客戶，你最好的客戶，也會面臨更高的利率？我只是想弄清楚價差如何擴大，因為你只有 2 個槓桿，而且你的收益率槓桿較低，而且你對它沒有太多控制權。

Sure. So I think the simplest way to probably think about that is just customers with higher FICOs are different customers than customers with lower FICOs. And so the interest rate spread that matters there is the spread between their rates and their funding costs. And on other customers, it's their rate and their funding costs. And so I think what matters is keeping the spread between those 2 things in a place that you can monetize in a consistent way.

當然。所以我認為最簡單的思考方式可能是 FICO 較高的客戶與 FICO 較低的客戶是不同的客戶。因此，重要的利率差是他們的利率和融資成本之間的差額。對於其他客戶，這是他們的費率和資金成本。所以我認為重要的是把這兩件事之間的傳播保持在一個你可以以一致的方式貨幣化的地方。

I think what happened in the quarter that is unique, the mix shift effects don't matter all that much because the spreads are kind of priced in, in a way that is thoughtful, and the mix shifts don't matter too much. What happened in the quarter is when we originate a loan, we have an interest rate that we show to a customer, and there's an expectation of the underlying funding cost. And then if the actual funding cost ends up being different than that expectation because either benchmarks or risk premiums or expected losses move between the moment of origination and the moment of sale, then that ends up being a headwind.

我認為本季度發生的事情是獨一無二的，混合變化的影響並不那麼重要，因為點差在某種程度上是經過深思熟慮的，而且混合變化並不重要。本季度發生的情況是，當我們發起貸款時，我們向客戶展示了利率，並且對基礎資金成本有預期。然後，如果實際融資成本最終與預期不同，因為基准或風險溢價或預期損失在發起時刻和銷售時刻之間移動，那麼這最終會成為逆風。

And so what we saw, obviously, was pretty dramatic and straight moves. I believe it's the most dramatic benchmarks have moved since the great financial crisis, and that had an impact. But I think that we're -- if you look at the actual rates that were charged to customers at any point in time and the expected funding costs throughout the quarter, we were getting loans in a very similar spot to where we were previously.

所以我們看到的，很明顯，是相當戲劇性和直接的動作。我相信這是自大金融危機以來最引人注目的基準變動，並且產生了影響。但我認為，如果您查看在任何時間點向客戶收取的實際費率和整個季度的預期融資成本，我們會在與以前非常相似的地方獲得貸款。

Our last question today will come from Naved Khan with SunTrust.

我們今天的最後一個問題將來自 SunTrust 的 Naved Khan。

This is Robert Zeller on for Naved. So just -- I'm just curious on the -- so you guys are planning 6 to 12 months ahead. What short-term measures you guys have, what operational measures you have in place to react to near-term market swings or exogenous macro conditions? And then secondly, have you said publicly or can you give us some sort of understanding of where the ADESA locations -- what they're operating at today? So appreciate the projections and forecasts on what they can do at full capacity, but maybe what their -- what levels they're operating at today for not full capacity.

這是 Naved 的 Robert Zeller。所以只是 - 我只是好奇 - 所以你們計劃提前 6 到 12 個月。你們有哪些短期措施，有哪些操作措施來應對近期市場波動或外部宏觀條件？其次，您是否公開表示過，或者您能否讓我們了解一下 ADESA 的位置——他們今天的運作方式？因此，請欣賞他們在滿負荷情況下可以做什麼的預測和預測，但也許是他們的 - 他們今天在沒有滿負荷的情況下運營的水平。

Sure. So I think in the near term, our goal is kind of as outlined earlier on the call. We want to do everything we can to improve the operational constraints that we think are constricting sales that we can show customers more cars and drive sales up. And then we're working hard to drive as much cost efficiency as we possibly can, and we'll see how that all kind of plays out.

當然。所以我認為在短期內，我們的目標有點像之前在電話會議上概述的那樣。我們希望盡我們所能來改善我們認為限制銷售的運營限制，我們可以向客戶展示更多汽車並推動銷售。然後我們正在努力提高成本效率，我們將看到這一切如何發揮作用。

On the ADESA side, ADESA currently has facility capacity for approximately 200,000 cars per year, a little over 200,000 cars per year. And so that kind of already exists in these sites. And then over time, we'll be making the investments to be able to ramp up that facility capacity to the 2 million that we outlined earlier and in our deck. The actual utilization is far below the capacity they have. And so there's an ability for us to hire and train and unlock more of that capacity, but there are steps between where we are in doing that. But the facilities exist and are ready to go, but there's still a need for hiring and training to unlock the 200,000 plus.

在 ADESA 方面，ADESA 目前每年可生產約 200,000 輛汽車，略高於 200,000 輛汽車。因此，這些網站中已經存在這種情況。然後隨著時間的推移，我們將進行投資，以便能夠將該設施容量提高到我們之前在我們的甲板上概述的 200 萬。實際利用率遠低於他們的能力。因此，我們有能力僱用和培訓並釋放更多這種能力，但在我們做到這一點之間存在一些步驟。但是這些設施已經存在並且準備好了，但仍然需要招聘和培訓來解鎖 200,000 多人。

And then just would reiterate again, I think we put in our shareholder letter kind of our footprint and the ADESA footprint. And I really think that that's a powerful page to take a look at because it's -- if you look at our footprint today and you look at where our reconditioning centers are and you think about this through the lens of the logistics constraints that we've seen over the last 4 or 5 months, you can really see how that works, right? We're buying cars nationwide, and we're shipping a lot of those cars to middle of the country to get reconditioned, and we ship them all the way back out to customers.

然後再次重申，我認為我們在股東信中加入了我們的足跡和 ADESA 足跡。我真的認為這是一個值得一看的強大頁面，因為它是——如果你看看我們今天的足跡，看看我們的翻新中心在哪裡，你會從我們的物流限制的角度來思考這個問題在過去的 4 或 5 個月內，您真的可以看到它是如何工作的，對吧？我們在全國范圍內購買汽車，我們將這些汽車中的許多運送到該國中部進行翻新，然後將它們一路運回給客戶。

And when you kind of look at that as the footprint and you overlay it on the map, you can see how all of those kind of inbound and outbound transport legs really reduced. And to kind of maximally get advantage of our business model, our logistics network, it does require a coordination between where cars are produced and logistics network and where cars are purchased. And we think that this gives us an incredible opportunity to coordinate that much better, much more tightly and with lower distances and times sitting between cars and customers. So we're obviously really excited about that, and we'll look to gain the benefits from that as quickly as we can.

當您將其視為足跡並將其覆蓋在地圖上時，您會看到所有這些入站和出站運輸腿是如何真正減少的。為了最大限度地利用我們的商業模式，我們的物流網絡，它確實需要在汽車生產地和物流網絡以及汽車購買地之間進行協調。我們認為這為我們提供了一個難得的機會，可以更好、更緊密地協調汽車和客戶之間的距離和時間。因此，我們顯然對此感到非常興奮，我們將盡快從中受益。

This concludes our question-and-answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to management for any closing remarks.

我們的問答環節到此結束。我想把會議交還給管理層，以便發表任何結束語。

Great. Well, thank you, everyone, and thanks for joining the call. To everyone on team Carvana, let's really take advantage of the opportunity. We've talked about it a lot internally, but this is an opportunity that we have. And if we take advantage of it, we're going to look back on it very fondly. And I think there's a huge chance that we can make this into a big positive. So let's do that. I appreciate everything you guys do. Appreciate you taking the time to listen to the call, and we'll talk to you again next quarter. Thanks.

偉大的。好吧，謝謝大家，感謝您加入電話會議。對於 Carvana 團隊的每個人，讓我們好好把握這個機會。我們在內部討論了很多，但這是我們擁有的機會。如果我們利用它，我們會非常深情地回顧它。我認為我們有很大的機會可以把它變成一個大的積極因素。所以讓我們這樣做。我感謝你們所做的一切。感謝您花時間聽電話，我們將在下個季度再次與您交談。謝謝。

The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.

會議現已結束。感謝您參加今天的演講。您現在可以斷開連接。