CSX Corp (CSX) 2023 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good afternoon. My name is Krista, and I'll be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the CSX Corporation Fourth Quarter Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions). I will now turn the conference over to your host, Matt Korn, Head of Investor Relations. Matt, you may begin.

午安.我叫克里斯塔，今天我將擔任你們的會議接線生。現在，我歡迎大家參加 CSX 公司第四季財報電話會議。 （操作員說明）。現在我將會議交給東道主投資者關係主管 Matt Korn。馬特，你可以開始了。

Thank you, Krista. Hello, everyone. Good afternoon, and welcome to our fourth quarter earnings call. Joining me this afternoon are Joe Hinrichs, President and Chief Executive Officer; Mike Cory, Executive Vice President and Chief Operating Officer; Kevin Boone, Executive Vice President and Chief Commercial Officer; and Sean Pelkey, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. Now in the presentation accompanying this call, you will find our forward-looking disclosure on Slide 2, followed by our non-GAAP disclosures on Slide 3. And with that, it is now my pleasure to introduce Mr. Joe Hinrichs.

謝謝你，克里斯塔。大家好。下午好，歡迎參加我們的第四季財報電話會議。今天下午與我一起出席的還有總裁兼執行長 Joe Hinrichs； Mike Cory，執行副總裁兼營運長；凱文‧布恩，執行副總裁兼首席商務官；執行副總裁兼財務長肖恩‧佩爾基 (Sean Pelkey)。現在，在本次電話會議隨附的簡報中，您將在幻燈片2 上看到我們的前瞻性披露，然後在幻燈片3 上看到我們的非GAAP 披露。接下來，我很高興向您介紹Joe Hinrichs 先生。

All right. Thank you, Matthew, and hello, everyone. Thank you for joining our conference call today. As you will hear from our leadership team today, we are very happy with the momentum we carried into the start of the new year. Of course, mother nature gave us a few challenges over the last couple of weeks, but we are proud of the work our ONE CSX team has done to set us up for success this year. Our railroad is performing well, and Mike Cory and the operations team are already bringing new ideas that are helping us run even better, safer and more efficiently.

好的。謝謝你，馬修，大家好。感謝您今天參加我們的電話會議。正如您今天從我們的領導團隊中聽到的那樣，我們對新年伊始所展現的勢頭感到非常高興。當然，大自然在過去幾週給我們帶來了一些挑戰，但我們對 ONE CSX 團隊為我們今年取得成功所做的工作感到自豪。我們的鐵路運作良好，麥克·科里和營運團隊已經帶來了新的想法，幫助我們運作得更好、更安全、更有效率。

Our customers are happy with the consistent service that our dedicated employees are delivering, and Kevin Boone will discuss how this is translating into profitable business opportunities. Sean Pelkeyl will go over our financial position, which remains very strong as we continue to deliver healthy volumes, favorable pricing, strong operating margins and high levels of free cash flow. Before we talk about the details of the past quarter and our expectations for 2024, it's important to take a step back to appreciate all that our ONE CSX team accomplished in 2023.

我們的客戶對我們敬業的員工提供的一致服務感到滿意，凱文·布恩將討論如何將其轉化為有利可圖的商業機會。肖恩·佩爾基爾(Sean Pelkeyl) 將回顧我們的財務狀況，隨著我們繼續提供健康的銷量、優惠的定價、強勁的營業利潤率和高水平的自由現金流，我們的財務狀況仍然非常強勁。在我們討論上一季的詳細資訊和對 2024 年的預期之前，重要的是要退後一步，欣賞我們的 ONE CSX 團隊在 2023 年取得的所有成就。

Everyone on this call knows, it's been a very active period for our entire industry. Recall that it was just over a year ago that Congress took action to prevent a major rail strike. Soon afterwards, highly visible events last winter led to important public debates about railroad safety. And through the year, Class 1 railroads have completed major mergers and made significant leadership changes. Meanwhile, our customers have had to manage through higher interest rates and inflation on the one hand and wars and supply chain disruptions on the other. Through all of this, the aim of our ONE CSX team has been to keep moving forward on our key goal of delivering sustainable, profitable growth that benefits all our key stakeholders.

這次電話會議的每個人都知道，對於我們整個行業來說，這是一個非常活躍的時期。回想一下，就在一年多前，國會採取行動阻止重大鐵路罷工。不久之後，去年冬天的引人注目的事件引發了有關鐵路安全的重要公眾辯論。在這一年裡，一級鐵路公司完成了重大合併，並進行了重大的領導層變動。同時，我們的客戶一方面必須應對更高的利率和通貨膨脹，另一方面也要應對戰爭和供應鏈中斷。透過這一切，我們 ONE CSX 團隊的目標是持續推進我們的關鍵目標，即實現永續、獲利的成長，使我們所有的主要利害關係人受益。

Our customers, our employees, our shareholders and the communities we live in and serve. For example, CSX was the first Class 1 railroad to reach paid sick leave agreements with our union partners, and we were the first railroad to significantly change our attendance policies based on employee feedback. We were also the first U.S. Class 1 railroad to be released from the additional service metric reporting by the STB back in May based on our improvements in service to our customers. Now here on Slide 5, we have listed several key achievements from this past year that helped us take important steps forward.

我們的客戶、我們的員工、我們的股東以及我們生活和服務的社區。例如，CSX 是第一家與工會合作夥伴達成帶薪病假協議的 1 級鐵路，我們也是第一個根據員工回饋大幅改變出勤政策的鐵路。基於我們對客戶服務的改進，我們也是第一家從 STB 於 5 月發布的附加服務指標報告中獲得豁免的美國 1 級鐵路。在投影片 5 上，我們列出了過去一年中幫助我們向前邁出重要一步的幾項關鍵成就。

First and foremost, our focus on safety has driven strong results over the year, especially in the fourth quarter, enabling us to report much improved accident and injury rates compared to 2022. Our service metrics that have consistently led the industry, and today, CSX remains ahead of our peers. Importantly, this is improving our customers' experience, which puts us in a great position to gain their trust and gain share. You've heard me reiterate this all year long. Our team delivered positive volume growth in merchandise that beat U.S. industrial production. Improved efficiency helped us grow coal volumes and our intermodal business gained traction led by our service and market initiatives. Our commercial and operating teams are more closely aligned than ever. Our customers know that when we offer them a solution, we have the commitment and the expertise to deliver it.

首先也是最重要的是，我們對安全的關注推動了今年的強勁業績，特別是在第四季度，使我們能夠報告與2022 年相比，事故和傷害率大大改善。我們的服務指標一直領先於產業，今天，CSX仍然領先我們的同行。重要的是，這正在改善我們客戶的體驗，這使我們能夠獲得他們的信任並獲得份額。你一年四季都聽到我重複這一點。我們的團隊實現了商品銷售的正成長，超過了美國工業生產。效率的提高幫助我們增加了煤炭產量，我們的多式聯運業務在我們的服務和市場舉措的帶動下獲得了發展。我們的商業和營運團隊比以往任何時候都更加緊密。我們的客戶知道，當我們為他們提供解決方案時，我們有承諾和專業知識來交付它。

Finally, we have seen our efforts to renew the culture here at the railroad start to really take shape. Through our site visits, family days and our regular surveys and town halls, we see the increased pride and energy that our employees are feeling through ONE CSX. And this is great progress, and we are proud of what we've accomplished this past year. None of these efforts are done or complete as this is a journey. There is so much more that we can accomplish as we work together as ONE CSX team. On Slide 6, we highlight some of the key results from our fourth quarter.

最後，我們看到我們為更新鐵路文化所做的努力開始真正成形。透過我們的實地考察、家庭日以及定期調查和市政廳，我們看到我們的員工透過 ONE CSX 感受到了更多的自豪感和活力。這是巨大的進步，我們對過去一年所取得的成就感到自豪。這些努力都還沒有完成或完成，因為這是一個旅程。當我們作為一個 CSX 團隊共同努力時，我們可以完成更多的事情。在投影片 6 中，我們重點介紹了第四季的一些主要成果。

Total volume grew by 1%, reaching 1.56 million units in the quarter. Much of this growth was driven by our strong merchandise franchise, which gained 3% year-over-year. Our total revenue decreased by roughly 1% to $3.68 billion as the effects of higher volumes and favorable pricing were offset by a decrease in other revenue and lower fuel surcharge due to lower diesel prices as compared to last year. We earned $0.45 per share compared to $0.49 per share a year ago. With that, I'll now turn the call over to Mike Cory to go over the details of our operations.

本季總銷量成長 1%，達到 156 萬台。這一增長很大程度上是由我們強大的商品專營權推動的，該特許經營權同比增長了 3%。我們的總收入下降了約 1%，至 36.8 億美元，原因是銷量增加和優惠定價的影響被其他收入的減少以及柴油價格較去年下降導致的燃油附加費降低所抵消。我們每股獲利 0.45 美元，而一年前為每股 0.49 美元。現在，我將把電話轉給邁克·科里 (Mike Cory)，讓他詳細介紹我們的營運細節。

Yes. Thank you, Joe, and good afternoon, everyone. Let's go to Slide 8, and let's just go to the Q4 recap. As I've said many times before, safety is foundational to every success we have. We saw a reduction in engineering and mechanical-related accidents and a reduction in transportation injuries during the quarter. And I really want to thank every CSX employee for their continued efforts on creating a safe working environment for themselves and each other. And that is extremely important. But we know we still have work to do.

是的。謝謝喬，大家下午好。讓我們看投影片 8，然後回顧第四季。正如我之前多次說過的，安全是我們一切成功的基礎。本季度，我們發現工程和機械相關事故減少，交通傷害也有所減少。我真的要感謝每一位 CSX 員工為自己和彼此創造一個安全的工作環境所做的持續努力。這非常重要。但我們知道我們還有工作要做。

While the full year numbers showed overall improvement, we were flat on transportation-related accidents and saw an increase in engineering-related accidents. These are all areas of opportunities we aim to improve in 2024 and beyond. Safety at its core isn't solely about incidents. It's about how employees feel working within the organization. When we have an environment where employees feel included, respected, valued and listened to, we can continue to identify areas of improvement as a team and change them. In 2023, we listened to our employees, and we made positive changes to the work environment in response, converting these conversations in sound successful practices. Our results are beginning to demonstrate that this is already making a difference, but we have a ways to go.

儘管全年數字總體有所改善，但與交通相關的事故持平，與工程相關的事故增加。這些都是我們計劃在 2024 年及以後改善的機會領域。安全的核心不僅僅是事故。這是關於員工在組織內工作的感受。當我們擁有一個讓員工感到包容、尊重、重視和傾聽的環境時，我們可以作為一個團隊繼續找出需要改進的領域並加以改變。 2023 年，我們聽取了員工的意見，並對工作環境做出了積極的改變作為回應，將這些對話轉化為良好的成功實踐。我們的結果開始表明這已經產生了影響，但我們還有很長的路要走。

We'll continue to keep this dialogue open and learn from each other. When done right, the entire ONE CSX team will meet its great potential when it comes to operating safely and efficiently in service to our customers. Moving over to the next slide. And on this slide is pretty self-explanatory. To me, it shows we've stabilized our network and we performed pretty well over the quarter. But one of our key focus areas is on maintaining and bettering our customer-facing metrics. Our fluidity has started to allow us to look deeper at our operating plan, again to better align the hard assets needed to move the volume. The team has been focused on maximizing car connections and maximizing the train load, while at the same time reducing locomotive dwell and active horsepower on the trains.

我們將繼續保持這種對話的開放性並互相學習。如果做得好，整個 ONE CSX 團隊將在安全、高效地運作並為客戶提供服務方面發揮巨大潛力。轉到下一張投影片。這張投影片上的內容非常不言自明。對我來說，這表明我們已經穩定了我們的網絡，並且我們在本季度的表現相當不錯。但我們的重點關注領域之一是維護和改進面向客戶的指標。我們的流動性已經開始讓我們能夠更深入地審視我們的營運計劃，再次更好地調整移動量所需的硬資產。團隊一直專注於最大限度地提高車廂連接和最大限度地提高列車負載，同時減少機車停留時間和列車上的有效馬力。

As a result, we've seen both a reduction in active locomotive use and daily train starts. Titan connection standards in our yards are starting to drive changes to our operating plan to result in quicker connections, driving a strong focus on using our locomotive technology to reduce fuel usage on line of road has contributed to a savings in overall fuel cost. Altogether, we're finding tangible opportunities to open up more capacity on this network. We expect these metrics to continue to improve as we go forward. Going over to Slide 10.

結果，我們看到機車的活躍使用和每日列車開動都減少了。我們車廠的泰坦連接標準開始推動我們的營運計劃發生變化，以實現更快的連接，並大力關注使用我們的機車技術來減少道路上的燃料使用量，從而節省了整體燃料成本。總而言之，我們正在尋找切實的機會來開放該網路的更多容量。我們預計這些指標將隨著我們的前進而繼續改進。轉到投影片 10。

I really believe we've made good headway in Q4 and especially over 2023, our key metrics continue to improve and our network is fluid. Our head count is at the point that we are now able to manage through efficiency and attrition. We're paying close attention to resource requirements for any new business coming online when needed. Our focus on car connections and train tonnage closely matched the horsepower along with network fluidity allowed us to reduce 2.5% of our daily starts in the quarter and start to store active locomotives. Among other things, this coming quarter, we'll be performing full territory reviews with our team that will further improve our customer service and continue to identify opportunities to better align asset use.

我真的相信我們在第四季度取得了良好進展，尤其是在 2023 年，我們的關鍵指標持續改善，我們的網路也很流暢。我們的員工數量現在能夠透過效率和人員流失進行管理。我們正在密切關注任何需要時上線的新業務的資源需求。我們對汽車連接和火車噸位的關注與馬力以及網路流動性密切相關，使我們能夠在本季度減少 2.5% 的每日啟動次數，並開始儲存活躍的機車。除此之外，在下個季度，我們將與我們的團隊進行全面的區域審查，這將進一步改善我們的客戶服務，並繼續尋找更好地調整資產使用的機會。

And of course, we'll be working right along with Kevin and his sales and marketing team to deliver this great service and grow with our customers. In closing, during my 4 months on the property, I continue to learn more about this network and especially the women and men that make up this tremendous ONE CSX team. I'm extremely excited about our potential to deliver our customers better service with greater safety, efficiency and teamwork. And I'm excited to do this together as one group of great railroaders. So thanks for the time, and over to you, Kevin.

當然，我們將與凱文及其銷售和行銷團隊合作，提供優質的服務並與我們的客戶一起成長。最後，在我入住該酒店的 4 個月裡，我繼續了解更多關於這個網絡，尤其是組成這個龐大的 ONE CSX 團隊的男女成員。我對我們以更高的安全性、效率和團隊合作為客戶提供更好的服務的潛力感到非常興奮。我很高興能夠作為一群偉大的鐵路工人一起完成這項工作。感謝您抽出時間，凱文。

Thank you, Mike. It really has been great to see how well our teams have been working together and the positive momentum we are building with our customers as they recognize CSX's focus on service. This teamwork is allowing us to build on new opportunities and drive attractive and profitable growth across all of our end markets. Business conditions in 2023 were challenging for many of our customers with several of our key markets experiencing volatility driven by a number of factors, including inventory destocking.

謝謝你，麥克。很高興看到我們的團隊合作得如此順利，並且我們與客戶建立了積極的勢頭，因為他們認識到 CSX 對服務的關注。這種團隊合作使我們能夠抓住新的機遇，推動所有終端市場具有吸引力和獲利性的成長。 2023 年的業務狀況對我們的許多客戶來說都充滿挑戰，我們的幾個主要市場在庫存去庫存等多種因素的推動下經歷了波動。

On the positive side, we saw many of these markets show improvement in the fourth quarter which, combined with our industry-leading service, provides optimism that the team can deliver strong revenue growth. Turning to Slide 12, we look at our merchandise performance. As you can see, our revenues were up 5% on both the quarterly and annual basis. Even with the effects of reduced fuel surcharge, volume increased by a solid 3% for the quarter and 2% for the full year, outpacing domestic industrial production that's been effectively flat. And we've delivered pricing results that reflect the higher inflationary backdrop that we have all experienced.

從積極的方面來看，我們看到許多此類市場在第四季度出現了改善，再加上我們行業領先的服務，我們對團隊能夠實現強勁的收入成長感到樂觀。轉向投影片 12，我們來看看我們的商品表現。正如您所看到的，我們的營收季度和年度均成長了 5%。即使受到燃油附加費降低的影響，本季銷量仍穩定成長 3%，全年銷量成長 2%，超過了實際上持平的國內工業生產。我們提供的定價結果反映了我們都經歷過的更高通膨背景。

Looking at the details of the quarter. Automotive performed well even with the temporary disruption caused by the UAW strike as total volumes held up and we continue to see leverage and we continue to leverage service to gain new business. Chemicals was challenged over most of the year but delivered positive growth in the fourth quarter, driven by shipments in plastics, sand and waste. For fertilizers, strong domestic demand and higher CSX shipments of potash exports supported volumes. Short-haul phosphate shipments remained constrained by its supply issues, which weighs on volumes but provides a tailwind for yields. Metals has continued to be an area where our service provides growth opportunities, and in minerals, infrastructure-related demand continued to be very healthy over the quarter with new cement production supporting volumes.

看看本季的細節。儘管汽車工人聯合會罷工造成暫時中斷，但汽車行業仍表現良好，總銷售量保持不變，我們繼續看到槓桿作用，並繼續利用服務來獲得新業務。化學品在今年大部分時間都面臨挑戰，但在塑膠、沙子和廢物出貨量的推動下，第四季實現了正成長。對於化肥而言，強勁的國內需求和鉀肥出口 CSX 出貨量的增加支撐了產量。短途磷酸鹽運輸仍然受到供應問題的限制，這影響了銷量，但為產量提供了推動力。金屬仍然是我們的服務提供成長機會的領域，而在礦產方面，基礎設施相關的需求在本季度仍然非常健康，新的水泥產量支持了產量。

For Forest Products, volume was modestly lower year-over-year but increased sequentially as pulpboard demand has started to show signs of recovery. While the ramp-up in ag and food over the fourth quarter was challenged, with Southeastern feed buyers remaining well supplied from local crops, combined with slower ramp-up in exports. As we head into 2024, we are encouraged with the momentum we've built across the business, and we see many opportunities across the end markets we serve. Our service continues to differentiate CSX in the marketplace, and we are excited about the opportunities this offers us to work with customers to collectively grow our businesses together.

對於林產品，銷量較去年同期略有下降，但隨著紙漿板需求開始顯示復甦跡象而連續增加。儘管第四季度農業和食品的成長面臨挑戰，但東南部飼料買家的當地農作物供應仍然充足，而且出口成長放緩。邁入 2024 年，我們對整個業務所建立的勢頭感到鼓舞，並且我們在我們服務的終端市場中看到了許多機會。我們的服務繼續使 CSX 在市場上脫穎而出，我們很高興能有機會與客戶合作，共同發展我們的業務。

Turning to Slide 13. Coal revenue decreased 1% for the fourth quarter as we lapped very strong export pricing from a year ago. Volumes remained positive, growing by 3% for the quarter and 8% for the year. Our coal business continues to be strong with service levels accelerating in the fourth quarter and global export prices supporting U.S. production. At the end of the last quarter, we indicated that export demand remains strong, that lower natural gas prices and reduced restocking demand would likely weigh on domestic shipments, and that's exactly what happened in the fourth quarter, with export tonnage up a full 27% while domestic tonnage declined by 13%.

轉向幻燈片 13。第四季煤炭收入下降 1%，因為我們的出口定價較去年同期非常強勁。銷量維持正值，季度成長 3%，全年成長 8%。我們的煤炭業務持續強勁，第四季度服務水準不斷提高，全球出口價格支撐了美國的生產。上季末，我們表示出口需求依然強勁，天然氣價格下跌和補貨需求減少可能會影響國內出貨量，而這正是第四季度發生的情況，出口噸位足足增長了27%而國內噸位下降了13%。

Coal RPU of just over 3,200 per ton was up 5% sequentially, in line with our expectations. For the new year, we are optimistic supported by continued strength in export demand as global benchmarks for both met and thermal currently remain at healthy levels. We also see incremental production growth on our network in West Virginia which will primarily be focused on the export market. Domestic demand in 2023 was supported by months of aggressive restocking at utilities and a very hot summer. With stockpiles at more normal levels, demand upside will largely be dependent on weather conditions in 2024. That said, total electricity demand growth remains substantial, especially in the Southeast, driven by new industrial capacity to data centers to even EV charging stations. Turning to Slide 14.

煤炭 RPU 略高於每噸 3,200，季增 5%，符合我們的預期。對於新的一年，我們對出口需求持續強勁的支持持樂觀態度，因為全球冶金和熱能基準目前仍保持在健康水準。我們也看到西維吉尼亞州網路的產量不斷增長，該網路將主要集中在出口市場。 2023 年的國內需求得到了公用事業公司數月的積極補貨和非常炎熱的夏季的支撐。由於庫存處於較正常的水平，需求上漲將在很大程度上取決於2024 年的天氣狀況。也就是說，總電力需求增長仍然很大，特別是在東南部地區，這是由數據中心甚至電動汽車充電站的新工業產能推動的。轉到投影片 14。

Fourth quarter intermodal revenue decreased 4% on flat volumes. For the full year, revenue decreased 11% on volumes that were down 7%. Lower fuel surcharge drove the largest impact to yields. Our domestic intermodal business continued to perform well, with volume increasing sequentially and growing in the mid-single digits on a year-over-year basis. We saw growth with our key partners that continue to experience industry-leading service performance, which was recently highlighted in JOC's customer satisfaction results. Our ability to deliver domestic growth was an extraordinary team effort, especially given the significant challenges facing the trucking market. In International, volumes were lower compared to last year, but we were encouraged to see improvement each month with December actually showing modest year-over-year growth as the positive effects of more normalized retailer inventories gain traction.

第四季多式聯運收入因運量持平而下降 4%。全年營收下降 11%，銷量下降 7%。較低的燃油附加費對產量的影響最大。我們的國內多式聯運業務持續表現良好，貨運較上季成長，較去年同期呈現中個位數成長。我們看到了我們的主要合作夥伴的成長，他們繼續體驗行業領先的服務性能，這在 JOC 最近的客戶滿意度結果中得到了強調。我們實現國內成長的能力是非凡的團隊努力的結果，特別是考慮到卡車運輸市場面臨的重大挑戰。在國際市場，銷量較去年有所下降，但我們很高興看到每個月的銷量都有所改善，12 月份實際上顯示出溫和的同比增長，因為零售商庫存更加正常化的積極影響得到了牽引。

Our team has continued to work hard to maximize our opportunities, which showed up in the growth as we work to build new partnerships, create new service offerings and leverage higher activity at the inland ports that we serve. Positive market trends are taking shape as we head into 2024, and we expect the combination of a more supportive market, new conversion opportunities and service offerings to drive year-over-year growth in both the domestic and the international business. We continue to monitor the evolving situations at both the Panama Canal and the Red Sea. To date, we have not been significantly affected by any changes in our customer behavior but we stand at the ready with the capacity and capabilities to adapt as needed.

我們的團隊繼續努力工作，以最大限度地利用我們的機會，這體現在我們努力建立新的合作夥伴關係、創造新的服務產品並利用我們所服務的內陸港口的更高活動的增長中。進入 2024 年，積極的市場趨勢正在形成，我們預計更具支持性的市場、新的轉換機會和服務產品的結合將推動國內和國際業務的同比增長。我們繼續關注巴拿馬運河和紅海局勢的演變。迄今為止，我們尚未受到客戶行為變化的重大影響，但我們已做好準備，有能力根據需要進行調整。

Finally, as we turn the page to 2024, I'm excited about the opportunities ahead. The team is accelerating our efforts in many areas of our business to work hand-in-hand with our customers to identify areas for growth. From industrial development to identifying market-specific operating metrics that enhance the customer experience, to even working closely with our rail partners to unlock growth. These are just a few of the focus areas for the team. Now I'll hand it over to Sean to read you the financial review.

最後，當我們翻過這一頁到 2024 年時，我對未來的機會感到興奮。團隊正在我們業務的許多領域加緊努力，與客戶攜手合作，以確定成長領域。從工業發展到確定增強客戶體驗的特定市場營運指標，甚至與我們的鐵路合作夥伴密切合作以釋放成長。這些只是團隊的幾個重點領域。現在我將把它交給 Sean，讓他向您宣讀財務回顧。

Thanks, Kevin, and good afternoon. Fourth quarter revenue fell by 1% while operating income was down 10% or $139 million. Now these results include $180 million of discrete year-over-year impacts from declines in Other revenue, real estate gains and export coal benchmark prices. However, the underlying results also reflect the benefit of our sustained service levels throughout 2023 and growing momentum in the business.

謝謝，凱文，下午好。第四季營收下降 1%，營業收入下降 10%，即 1.39 億美元。現在，這些結果包括其他收入、房地產收益和出口煤炭基準價格下降帶來的 1.8 億美元的離散年比影響。然而，基本結果也反映了我們在 2023 年持續服務水準和業務成長動能的好處。

Across merchandise, coal and intermodal, revenue, excluding fuel, increased by 5%, benefiting from strong core pricing across the merchandise portfolio and 3% volume growth in both merchandise and coal. Counter to normal seasonal trends, the team delivered sequential volume gains, helping operating income increase by $25 million relative to the third quarter. Interest and other expense was $16 million higher compared to the prior year. Income tax expense decreased $23 million, the effective tax rate of 22.9% included $19 million of favorable adjustments primarily for state tax matters relative to $33 million of favorable adjustments in the prior year. Our expected tax rate going forward remains 24.5%.

在商品、煤炭和多式聯運方面，不包括燃料的收入成長了 5%，這得益於整個商品組合的強勁核心定價以及商品和煤炭銷售成長 3%。與正常的季節性趨勢相反，該團隊實現了銷售連續成長，幫助營業收入較第三季增加了 2,500 萬美元。利息和其他費用比前一年增加了 1600 萬美元。所得稅費用減少了 2,300 萬美元，22.9% 的有效稅率包括主要針對州稅務事項的 1,900 萬美元優惠調整，而上一年的優惠調整為 3,300 萬美元。我們預計未來稅率仍為 24.5%。

Earnings per share fell by $0.04, including $0.07 of impact from the previously mentioned discrete items. For the full year, operating income fell by 8% or $462 million, while earnings per share was 5% lower. These results were impacted by the prior year Virginia real estate transaction, declining intermodal storage revenue and lower export coal benchmarks totaling nearly $700 million on a combined basis. The hard work of our ONE CSX team provided our customers reliable and consistent service throughout 2023, and laid a strong foundation for long-term profitable growth. With profitable growth in mind, we will also be making a change in how we report results going forward.

每股收益下降了 0.04 美元，其中包括前面提到的離散項目帶來的 0.07 美元的影響。全年營業收入下降 8%，即 4.62 億美元，每股收益下降 5%。這些結果受到去年維吉尼亞州房地產交易、聯運倉儲收入下降以及出口煤炭基準下降的影響，總計近 7 億美元。 ONE CSX 團隊的辛勤工作在 2023 年為客戶提供了可靠、一致的服務，並為長期獲利成長奠定了堅實的基礎。考慮到獲利成長，我們也將改變未來報告績效的方式。

Starting in the first quarter of 2024, we will transition to a more conventional approach of reporting operating margins rather than operating ratio. Our goal is to target margin improvement, aligning the business around a balanced approach that includes profitable volume gains and pricing to the value of our service, all while controlling costs and optimizing asset utilization. Let's now turn to the next slide and take a closer look at fourth quarter expenses. Total fourth quarter expense increased by $89 million as the impacts of lower real estate gains, inflation, increased depreciation and higher head count were partly offset by lower fuel prices and efficiency savings in PS&O and rents. Turning to the individual line items. Labor and fringe was up $82 million, impacted by inflation and additional headcount. The quarter also included costs that related to the timing of union employee vacation and sick benefits.

從 2024 年第一季開始，我們將過渡到更傳統的報告營運利潤率而非營運比率的方法。我們的目標是提高利潤率，圍繞平衡的方法調整業務，包括可獲利的銷售成長和根據我們的服務價值定價，同時控製成本和優化資產利用率。現在讓我們翻到下一張投影片，仔細看看第四季的支出。第四季總支出增加了 8,900 萬美元，原因是房地產收益下降、通貨膨脹、折舊增加和員工人數增加的影響被燃料價格下降以及 PS&O 和租金效率節省部分抵消。轉向各個行項目。受通貨膨脹和員工人數增加的影響，勞工和邊緣費用增加了 8,200 萬美元。該季度還包括與工會員工休假時間和病假福利相關的成本。

We expect this to adjust down resulting in a lower sequential cost per employee in the first quarter. Purchased services and other expense increased $4 million versus last year, as inflation was mostly offset by savings from our intermodal and engineering teams. We expect a modest sequential increase in the first quarter, similar to what we have seen in recent years. As a reminder, we'll cycle a prior year insurance recovery of nearly $50 million in the first quarter. And while we expect increased technology carry costs and a need for more locomotive overhauls to impact expense in 2024, we are actively implementing cost savings and efficiency initiatives that will help offset these headwinds. Depreciation was up $24 million, including an $11 million adjustment related to prior periods. We are projecting roughly $40 million to $50 million higher full year depreciation expense in 2024.

我們預計這項調整將導致第一季每位員工的連續成本降低。購買的服務和其他費用與去年相比增加了 400 萬美元，因為通貨膨脹大部分被我們的聯運和工程團隊的節省所抵消。我們預計第一季將出現溫和的環比成長，與近年來的情況類似。提醒一下，我們將在第一季回收近 5,000 萬美元的上年保險賠償。雖然我們預計技術成本增加以及需要進行更多機車大修，從而影響 2024 年的支出，但我們正在積極實施成本節約和提高效率的舉措，這將有助於抵消這些不利因素。折舊增加 2400 萬美元，其中包括與前期相關的 1100 萬美元調整。我們預計 2024 年全年折舊費用將增加約 4,000 萬至 5,000 萬美元。

Fuel cost was down $59 million driven by a lower gallon price. While fuel efficiency was stable year-over-year, we saw strong sequential improvement. These results are especially encouraging as we typically face seasonal efficiency headwinds in the fourth quarter. Mike and the team expect to continue the momentum in this critical measure into 2024 and drive meaningful year-over-year savings. Equipment and rents was $9 million favorable, driven by faster car cycle times across all markets. Finally, property gains were $47 million unfavorable in the quarter. At this time, we do not expect any individually significant transactions during 2024. Now turning to cash flow and distributions on Slide 18.

由於加侖價格下降，燃料成本下降了 5,900 萬美元。雖然燃油效率同比穩定，但我們看到了強勁的連續改善。這些結果尤其令人鼓舞，因為我們通常在第四季面臨季節性效率阻力。 Mike 和團隊希望將這項關鍵措施的勢頭延續到 2024 年，並推動實現有意義的逐年節省。由於所有市場的汽車循環時間加快，設備和租金優惠達 900 萬美元。最後，本季房地產收益為 4,700 萬美元。目前，我們預計 2024 年不會發生任何單獨重大交易。現在轉向幻燈片 18 上的現金流量和分配。

Full year free cash flow remains strong at $3.3 billion. Our first priority use of cash remains investing for the safety, reliability and growth of our business. As such, this figure includes $2.3 billion of capital spend across a wide range of projects to ensure the integrity of our network infrastructure as well as the high return strategic investment opportunities. Looking to 2024, note that free cash flow will be impacted by about $380 million of Federal Cash Tax Payments that were deferred from 2023. Cash flow generation also supported close to $4.4 billion in shareholder returns for the year, including $3.5 billion in share repurchases and nearly $900 million of dividends. While economic profit finished lower for the year largely due to lower intermodal storage revenue and export coal pricing, our goal is to increase economic profit over time which has been shown to strongly correlate with outsized shareholder returns. With that, let me turn it back to Joe for his closing remarks.

全年自由現金流依然強勁，達 33 億美元。我們現金的首要用途仍然是投資於我們業務的安全性、可靠性和成長。因此，這一數字包括各種項目的 23 億美元資本支出，以確保我們網路基礎設施的完整性以及高回報策略投資機會。展望2024 年，請注意，自由現金流將受到從2023 年推遲的約3.8 億美元聯邦現金稅支付的影響。現金流的產生也支持了當年近44 億美元的股東回報，包括35 億美元的股票回購和近9億美元的股利。雖然今年經濟利潤下降主要是由於聯運倉儲收入和出口煤炭定價下降，但我們的目標是隨著時間的推移增加經濟利潤，這已被證明與巨額股東回報密切相關。接下來，讓我把話題轉回喬的結案陳詞。

All right. Thank you, Sean. Now we will conclude with our initial thoughts on our expectations for the full year 2024. As of today, and based on our visibility with our customers and our expectations for the CSX specific initiatives that we are putting in place, we anticipate growth in total volume and total revenue in the low to mid-single-digit range. We see encouraging momentum across our merchandise business, but we are benefiting from service-led gains in market share and wallet share and new industrial development activity.

好的。謝謝你，肖恩。現在，我們將總結對 2024 年全年預期的初步想法。截至今天，根據我們對客戶的了解以及對我們正在實施的 CSX 特定舉措的預期，我們預計總量將增長總收入在低至中個位數範圍內。我們看到整個商品業務的勢頭令人鼓舞，但我們也受益於服務主導的市場份額和錢包份額以及新工業開發活動的成長。

We expect growth in our intermodal business as a prolonged destocking cycle finally winds down and our strategic initiatives continue to drive volume, and export coal demand continues to be very strong with CSX gaining from the ramp-up of a new mine on our network. By growing volumes and utilizing our existing capacity, we expect our profitability to benefit from a favorable combination of solid pricing, better operational efficiency, and a moderate easing in cost inflation. Kevin's team continues to do a great job making sure that we are getting paid for the service we provide. And as Mike discussed, we see all kinds of new opportunities run this network better, safer, faster and more efficiently. We expect an increase in our capital spending to approximately $2.5 billion this year as we invest in safety infrastructure, locomotive rebuilds, upgrades to our portion of the New Alabama Interchange with CBKC and other specific high-return investments, including technology investments.

我們預計，隨著漫長的去庫存週期最終結束，我們的戰略舉措將繼續推動銷量，我們的多式聯運業務將出現增長，隨著CSX 從我們網絡上的新煤礦的產能擴張中獲益，出口煤炭需求將持續非常強勁。透過增加銷售量和利用現有產能，我們預計我們的獲利能力將受益於穩定的定價、更好的營運效率和成本通膨適度緩解的有利組合。凱文的團隊繼續出色地工作，確保我們為所提供的服務獲得報酬。正如麥克所討論的，我們看到各種新機會可以更好、更安全、更快、更有效率地運行這個網路。我們預計今年的資本支出將增加至約 25 億美元，因為我們投資於安全基礎設施、機車重建、與 CBKC 合作的新阿拉巴馬立交橋部分的升級以及其他特定的高回報投資，包括技術投資。

Finally, as before, there is no change to our balanced opportunistic approach to capital returns, using our excess cash to fund share repurchases and dividends to benefit our shareholders. In closing, I am very proud of what our entire team accomplished this past year. To our ONE CSX team, I want to thank all of you across all of our facilities in every state and province that we're operating in, through your hard work and for demonstrating that our ONE CSX culture can be something real and impactful. We're in a great position as we head into 2024. And with your help, we can make it even better year than the strong one we just had. For everyone on this call, thank you for all your interest in and support of CSX. Matthew, we're now ready to take questions.

最後，和以前一樣，我們對資本回報的平衡機會主義方法沒有改變，利用我們的多餘現金為股票回購和股息提供資金，以使我們的股東受益。最後，我對我們整個團隊在過去一年所取得的成就感到非常自豪。對於我們的 ONE CSX 團隊，我要感謝我們營運所在的每個州和省的所有設施中的所有人，感謝你們的辛勤工作，並證明我們的 ONE CSX 文化可以是真實且有影響力的。邁入 2024 年，我們處於有利位置。在您的幫助下，我們可以讓這一年變得比剛剛強勁的一年更好。感謝參加本次電話會議的所有人對 CSX 的興趣和支持。馬修，我們現在準備好回答問題了。

Thank you, Joe. We will now move to our question-and-answer session. In the interest of time and to make sure that everyone on this call has an opportunity to take part, we ask you to please limit yourselves to one and only one question. Krista, we're ready to start the process.

謝謝你，喬。我們現在進入問答環節。為了節省時間並確保參加本次電話會議的每個人都有機會參加，我們要求您只回答一個問題。克麗斯塔，我們已經準備好開始這個過程了。

(Operator Instructions) Your first question comes from the line of Jon Chappell from Evercore ISI.

（操作員說明）您的第一個問題來自 Evercore ISI 的 Jon Chappell。

Sean, I wanted to dig a little deeper on this part of the guide and maybe some of the delayed productivity improvements that you spoke about. If the volume commentary is low to mid-single digit, you have some of the productivity levers that you were hoping to pull even though you have some of these, I guess, other fixed cost increases in the form of D&A, et cetera. How do you think about margin expansion in 2024 based on your base case of volume and revenue?

肖恩，我想更深入地研究指南的這一部分，也許還有您提到的一些延遲的生產力改進。如果數量評論是低到中個位數，那麼你就擁有一些你希望拉動的生產力槓桿，即使你有其中一些，我猜，其他固定成本以 D&A 等形式增加。根據您的銷售和收入基本情況，您如何看待 2024 年的利潤率擴張？

Thanks, Jonathan. That's a bit of a loaded question, a lot in there. Well, I'll do my best. I think when I step back, our target is to always expand margins, and we can do that by growing the business profitably, operating safely and running an efficient railroad. When I think about 2024 and sort of how that year progresses, we built some momentum coming from Q3 into Q4. We grew volumes. We grew operating income. That's not always the case. Our hope is to continue that momentum going into the first quarter, whether or not withstanding here. And then build that momentum into the second quarter as well. We've got some headwinds year-over-year that we can talk about in the first quarter. They began to ease in the second quarter. And then by the time we get to the second half of the year, the comps are a little bit easier, and that's where I think you'll really see some very strong incremental margins.

謝謝，喬納森。這是一個有點沉重的問題，裡面有很多。嗯，我會盡力的。我認為，當我退一步時，我們的目標是始終擴大利潤，我們可以透過獲利成長業務、安全營運和營運高效的鐵路來實現這一目標。當我想到 2024 年以及這一年的進展時，我們從第三季到第四季建立了一些勢頭。我們增加了銷量。我們增加了營業收入。情況並非總是如此。我們的希望是在第一季繼續保持這種勢頭，無論是否受到影響。然後將這種勢頭延續到第二季​​。與去年同期相比，我們遇到了一些阻力，我們可以在第一季討論這些阻力。他們在第二季開始放鬆。然後，當我們進入今年下半年時，比較會變得容易一些，我認為這就是您真正會看到一些非常強勁的增量利潤的地方。

Your next question comes from the line of Bascome Majors from Susquehanna.

你的下一個問題來自薩斯奎哈納的巴斯科姆梅傑斯隊。

Joe, you opened the call talking about a lot of the progress you had made in your first year leading the business. Can you talk about how your focus or at least investors will see your focus involved over the next 12 to 18 months following the success you've had improving a lot of stakeholder relationships in your first 16?

喬，您在電話會議開始時談到了您在領導業務的第一年中取得的許多進展。在您在前 16 個月中成功改善了許多利害關係人關係之後，您能否談談您的重點或至少投資者將如何看待您在未來 12 至 18 個月內的重點？

Yes. Thanks, Bascome. I think you heard a little bit of that in -- on the commentary from the team here. We now see our business has stabilized. We've reached a threshold on customer service that has been recognized in the industry, and now you're seeing the opportunity for us to take advantage of that stability to get more efficient. We're now at the manpower levels that we were targeting. There's always going to be some needs here or there. But generally speaking, we're at the manpower levels we were targeting.

是的。謝謝，巴斯科姆。我想你在團隊的評論中聽到了一些這一點。現在我們看到我們的業務已經穩定下來。我們的客戶服務已經達到了業界認可的門檻，現在您看到了我們利用這種穩定性來提高效率的機會。我們現在已經達到了目標的人力水準。到處都會有一些需求。但總的來說，我們處於目標的人力水平。

So we head into 2024 with an opportunity to be in a much more stable setting, the momentum we're building on culture and how people are working together. Mike coming in and his perspective and working closely with Kevin and his team, I feel really good about. The opportunity going forward now is for us to leverage the strength we have in our operating model and the people we have to get more efficient. Obviously, we want to see more safety improvement this year as we saw in the fourth quarter of last year and building momentum there. And then take advantage of the opportunity to grow with our customers. We now have over a year of providing stable, persistent, reliable service that our customers are recognizing us for and we have the opportunity now to talk to each one of them about, okay, what can we do together to grow and how can we work together?

因此，進入 2024 年，我們將有機會處於一個更穩定的環境中，我們在文化和人們如何合作的基礎上建立動力。麥克的加入和他的觀點以及與凱文和他的團隊的密切合作，讓我感覺非常好。現在我們面臨的機會是利用營運模式和人員的優勢來提高效率。顯然，我們希望看到今年的安全性得到更多改善，就像我們在去年第四季看到的那樣，並在那裡建立勢頭。然後利用這個機會與我們的客戶一起成長。我們現在已經一年多了，提供了穩定、持久、可靠的服務，我們的客戶認可了我們，現在我們有機會與他們每個人討論，好吧，我們可以一起做些什麼來成長以及我們如何工作一起？

The journey on efficiency, safety, culture never ends, and we're going to keep working together. But I will tell you, we come into 2024, our network was in good shape, very good shape. Our manpower levels are in good shape. The team is working better together than I've seen it in the time I've been here. And so that gives us confidence that we can build on the momentum we've established over the last year.

效率、安全、文化的旅程永無止境，我們將繼續共同努力。但我會告訴你，進入 2024 年，我們的網路狀況良好，非常好。我們的人力水準狀況良好。這個團隊的合作比我在這裡期間看到的更好。這讓我們有信心在去年建立的勢頭的基礎上再接再厲。

Your next question comes from the line of Brian Ossenbeck from JPMorgan.

您的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Brian Ossenbeck。

Maybe just a quick follow-up for Sean first. Can you just give us the commentary about the comp per employee stepping down into the first quarter after the increase in 4Q? And then maybe for Mike, can you just give us a sense in terms of what you're seeing? I know it's still little bit early, but a little bit further down the path over the last call, it sounds like fuel efficiency is an area for some big improvement that you're targeting. Maybe some more network in taking out some of the locomotives as the fluidity continues to improve. So what are you seeing there and maybe some rough order of magnitude would be helpful.

也許只是先對肖恩進行快速跟進。您能否對第四季度增長後進入第一季的員工薪酬進行評論？然後，也許麥克，你能告訴我們你所看到的情況嗎？我知道現在還為時過早，但與上次通話相比，燃油效率似乎是您目標中需要進行重大改進的一個領域。隨著流動性的不斷改善，也許會有更多的網路來取出一些機車。那麼你在那裡看到了什麼，也許一些粗略的數量級會有所幫助。

Sure, Brian. I'll begin on the comp per employees. So we did have some true-ups in terms of vacation and sick leave that I mentioned in the quarter. That was probably about $15 million. We also had work that moved from capital into OE. We typically have that in the fourth quarter. So those will both be tailwinds going into the first quarter on comp per employee. So I would expect if you're modeling that a couple of percentage point improvement versus what we reported in Q4. Should be pretty steady in the first half. And then again, we have that 4% wage increase scheduled in July, so probably step up a little bit in the second half of the year. Notwithstanding the efficiency initiatives that Mike and the team are focused on.

當然，布萊恩。我將從員工薪酬開始。因此，我們確實在本季提到的假期和病假方面進行了一些調整。這大概是 1500 萬美元左右。我們也有一些工作從資本轉移到了原始設備製造商。我們通常會在第四季進行。因此，這些都將成為第一季員工人均薪資的有利因素。因此，我預計如果您進行建模，與我們在第四季度報告的情況相比，會提高幾個百分點。上半年應該還是比較穩定的。話又說回來，我們打算在 7 月加薪 4%，所以下半年可能會加薪一點。儘管麥克和團隊非常關注效率舉措。

Look, overall asset use, whether it's locomotives, trains we run, how productive all of us are, they're front and center for what we look at. And so for me, it's really, I'd say out of a scale out 1 to 10, I'm about a 4 in terms of where I am in understanding our network and understanding our people. However, we're really starting to focus in on the things that aren't working right. They aren't working against what we think we can do with the franchise, with the network we have. So whether it's size of trains, the state of the train, the use of the technology we have to get the most out of the locomotive. It's just -- right now, it's blocking and tackling, and it's everybody coming together.

看，整體資產使用，無論是我們運行的機車、火車，還是我們所有人的生產力，它們都是我們所關注的前沿和中心。所以對我來說，在 1 到 10 的範圍內，我對我們的網路和員工的了解程度大約是 4 分。然而，我們確實開始注意那些不正常的事情。他們並沒有反對我們認為我們可以利用特許經營權和我們擁有的網絡所做的事情。因此，無論是火車的尺寸、火車的狀態或技術的使用，我們都必須充分利用機車。只是——現在，正在阻擋和鏟球，每個人都聚集在一起。

So we're learning, we're teaching, we're sharing best practices. We're doing the things that, in that fourth quarter was really the last couple of months that we really started to see the things we could do because, first of all, we had the head count. We had the reliability and the fluidity of the network. And so we're just going to keep grinding that stone. But as I said in my remarks, we're going to really get deep into the operating plans over every corridor over the next few quarters. And I'll leave that charge, but I tell you what, I've got a lot of people that are out there ready to go and they're very qualified to do this. So I see, to Sean's point, we got further efficiency ahead of us, but never at the expense of safety and never at the expense of customer service. So our hope is that we continue to provide this great product and the customers are going to come. And that's how we'll also get the efficiency that we need.

所以我們正在學習、我們正在教學、我們正在分享最佳實踐。我們正在做的事情，在第四季度實際上是最後幾個月，我們真正開始看到我們可以做的事情，因為首先，我們有人員數量。我們擁有網路的可靠性和流動性。所以我們要繼續磨那塊石頭。但正如我在演講中所說，我們將在接下來的幾個季度真正深入研究每個走廊的營運計劃。我會保留這項費用，但我告訴你，我有很多人已經做好了準備，他們非常有資格這樣做。所以我認為，根據肖恩的觀點，我們可以進一步提高效率，但絕不會以犧牲安全為代價，也絕不會以犧牲客戶服務為代價。因此，我們希望我們能夠繼續提供這款出色的產品，並且客戶將會來。這也是我們獲得所需效率的方式。

Your next question comes from the line of Justin Long from Stephens.

你的下一個問題來自史蒂芬斯的賈斯汀朗。

So with the 2024 guidance being the same for volumes and revenue, low to mid-single-digit growth, is it right to think that your assumption for revenue per unit all-in is flattish? And either way, I was wondering if you could provide some more color on your expectations for coal RPU maybe for the first quarter and then the full year as well?

因此，由於 2024 年銷售量和收入指引相同，成長率為低至中個位數，您對每單位總收入的假設是否持平？不管怎樣，我想知道您是否可以提供更多關於第一季和全年煤炭 RPU 的預期？

Justin, this is Kevin. I think you hit on it right there on the coal RPU. Obviously, very healthy market right now, how much you embed that going forward. We're optimistic, but we know this market can move around quite a bit. And so maybe a little bit of conservative outlook as we move through the year. Hopefully, there's some upside to that, but that's largely impacting it, as you mentioned, from an RPU perspective. The other thing that I would highlight is we do expect the intermodal market to bounce back here, and that's a lower RPU business as well, but that will be contributory to our growth this year from a volume and revenue perspective.

賈斯汀，這是凱文。我認為您正是在煤炭 RPU 上發現了這一點。顯然，現在的市場非常健康，未來的發展程度如何。我們很樂觀，但我們知道這個市場可能會波動很大。因此，在這一年中，我們的前景可能會有點保守。希望這有一些好處，但正如您所提到的，從 RPU 的角度來看，這在很大程度上影響了它。我要強調的另一件事是，我們確實預計多式聯運市場將在這裡反彈，這也是RPU 業務較低的情況，但從數量和收入的角度來看，這將有助於我們今年的成長。

So lower ARPU overall. So that will mix it down a bit. But those are the two large factors that you just highlighted and you know about.

因此整體 ARPU 較低。這樣會稍微混合一下。但這是您剛才強調並了解的兩個重要因素。

Your next question comes from the line of Scott Group from Wolfe Research.

您的下一個問題來自 Wolfe Research 的 Scott Group。

So I want to just dig into the cost side a little bit. So if I just look, I understand some noise with vacations and paid sick but cost x fuel up about 3% to 4% from Q3 with volume up less than 1%. So it's just, we've seen a lot of cost creep that continued in Q4. I guess, ultimately, I'm trying to figure out where do we go from here? Can we start to see overall cost levels stabilize? Do they still increase, but increase just at a slower pace? Is there any chance they could start to come down a little bit? I don't know. I'm just struggling with how to think about the cost side. So any help there?

所以我想稍微深入探討一下成本方面。因此，如果我只是看一下，我就能理解假期和帶薪病假帶來的一些噪音，但燃料成本較第三季度上漲了約 3% 至 4%，而銷量增幅不到 1%。所以，我們看到第四季持續出現大量成本攀升。我想，最終，我想弄清楚我們該何去何從？我們能否開始看到整體成本水準趨於穩定？它們是否仍在增加，但只是以較慢的速度增加？他們有沒有可能開始稍微下降一點？我不知道。我只是在努力思考如何考慮成本。那麼有什麼幫助嗎？

Yes. Thanks, Scott. I can take a stab at it here. So I think fourth quarter, let's remember, we've got the dynamic of some work moving off of capital and going to OE. That's normal. We'll typically see a little bit of a step-up that reverses back in Q1. We probably had, call it, $30 million, $35 million of costs in the quarter that were somewhat unusual items that we mentioned but just as a reminder, we had a true-up on vacation and sick leave, that was about $15 million, as I just mentioned. We had another $10 million on depreciation true-up at the end of the year there for that, that's not going to recur.

是的。謝謝，斯科特。我可以在這裡嘗試一下。所以我認為第四季度，讓我們記住，我們已經看到一些工作從資本轉移到原始設備的動態。這很正常。我們通常會看到第一季出現一些逆轉。我們本季可能有 3000 萬美元、3500 萬美元的成本，這些都是我們提到的有些不尋常的項目，但只是提醒一下，我們對假期和病假進行了調整，大約為 1500 萬美元，因為我剛才提到了。年底我們還有 1000 萬美元的折舊調整，這種情況不會再發生了。

And then the Livingston, Kentucky derailment was about $10 million as well. So you kind of add all that together, those costs roll off as we go into the first quarter. And then we built some momentum. I mean, as Mike said, he's already looked at the train plan. He's reduced some starts driving tonnage up. That's going to drive fuel efficiency as well, taking some locomotives out. We're not paying maintenance on those locomotives. So we're certainly building some momentum. I think that's going to gradually add in as we go through the year. And that's why I feel really good about where the incrementals are going to be second half of the year.

肯塔基州利文斯頓出軌事故也造成了約 1000 萬美元的損失。因此，將所有這些加在一起，當我們進入第一季時，這些成本就會下降。然後我們建立了一些勢頭。我的意思是，正如麥克所說，他已經看過火車計畫了。他減少了一些導致噸位上升的啟動。這也將提高燃油效率，淘汰一些機車。我們不支付這些機車的維護費用。所以我們肯定正在建立一些勢頭。我認為隨著這一年的發展，這一點將會逐漸增加。這就是為什麼我對今年下半年的增量感到非常滿意。

Your next question comes from the line of Tom Wadewitz from UBS.

您的下一個問題來自瑞銀集團 (UBS) 的湯姆·瓦德維茨 (Tom Wadewitz)。

Wanted to ask, I think it's probably for Kevin, just a little bit on the revenue side. You've had a pretty meaningful storage revenue headwind in 2023. And I think you feel surcharge can be an impact, too. How do you think about those 2 factors as you go in '24? Are they kind of neutral? Or is there still some lingering headwind? And then in terms of price, what kind of a price assumption do you have? Are you thinking stable pricing versus what we got in '23? Or is it kind of up or down?

想問一下，我想這可能是為了凱文，只是收入的一點點。 2023 年，您的儲存收入遇到了相當大的阻力。我認為您認為附加費也會產生影響。當你進入 24 世紀時，你如何看待這兩個因素？他們是中立的嗎？還是仍然存在一些揮之不去的逆風？那麼在價格方面，你有什麼樣的價格假設呢？您認為與我們 23 年的定價相比是否穩定？或者說是上漲還是下跌？

Yes. So just on the first part of the question, Tom, I'll answer that. On the other revenue piece, we're -- I would go ahead and model something like $130 million a quarter, which is kind of what we've been running at the second half of this year. Obviously, you do the math on that, it will be a big headwind in Q1 about, call it, $50 million plus. That's why the comps are tougher in Q1 and then a little less in Q2 before we get to the normalized rate. And then on fuel, don't forget, we had a pretty favorable lag impact in the first half of last year to the tune of almost $70 million across the first and second quarter.

是的。湯姆，就問題的第一部分，我會回答。在另一個收入方面，我們——我會繼續建模，例如每季 1.3 億美元，這就是我們今年下半年一直在做的事情。顯然，你算一下，這將是第一季的一個巨大阻力，可以稱之為 5000 萬美元以上。這就是為什麼在我們達到標準化比率之前，第一季的比較更加艱難，而第二季的比較則稍微弱一些。然後在燃料方面，不要忘記，我們在去年上半年產生了相當有利的滯後影響，第一季和第二季達到了近 7000 萬美元。

So prices have come down a little bit. We are expecting somewhat favorable lag in Q1 of this year, but it'd still be a year-over-year headwind. So those are 2 reasons why we're thinking about more sequential momentum in the first quarter as opposed to being able to deliver growth until we get to the second half of the year.

所以價格略有下降。我們預計今年第一季會出現一些有利的滯後，但與去年同期相比仍然是一個逆風。因此，這就是為什麼我們考慮在第一季提供更多連續動力，而不是在下半年之前成長的原因。

Yes. And then on pricing, I think, as we talked about all last year, we had to react to a much higher inflation environment that we all experienced, quite frankly. And you'll see a lot of that carryover, right? These contracts are negotiated some on a multiyear period, some year-over-year. We know to negotiate every year. So it's fair to say our expectation coming into '24 is cost inflation for our business will be a little bit lower. So I would expect that number to come down when we have our conversations but still very healthy when you look at historical rates, what we were able to achieve. And obviously, that's an important part of our revenue growth story is both volume, a balanced approach between volume and price.

是的。然後在定價方面，我認為，正如我們去年所討論的那樣，坦率地說，我們必須對我們都經歷過的高得多的通膨環境做出反應。你會看到很多殘留，對嗎？這些合約有些是多年期的，有些是逐年談判的。我們知道每年都會進行談判。因此，可以公平地說，我們對進入 24 年的預期是，我們業務的成本通膨將會略低一些。因此，當我們進行對話時，我預計這個數字會下降，但當你查看歷史利率以及我們能夠實現的目標時，這個數字仍然非常健康。顯然，我們收入成長故事的一個重要部分是數量，數量和價格之間的平衡方法。

Your next question comes from the line of Brandon Oglenski from Barclays.

您的下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的布蘭登·奧格倫斯基。

Mike, I wonder if you could speak more specifically to labor efficiency this year, especially in reference to Kevin's remarks that you're going to have new merchandise business bringing on about 1 point of volume additionally. So how are you planning for headcount? And what are the opportunities for efficiency there?

麥克，我想知道您是否可以更具體地談談今年的勞動效率，特別是提到凱文的言論，即您將有新的商品業務帶來額外約 1 個百分點的銷量。那麼您該如何規劃員工人數呢？有哪些提高效率的機會？

Brandon, I hope you're well. Look, I'm not going to say at this stage that we can add incremental volume without headcount. It depends on what it is and where it's at. But I'm very comfortable with the results we had in Q4 of a run rate of more train size. And that obviously reduces the impact on the headcount. We've got areas that we just haven't got to in my time yet. And I think the -- and this isn't just about trade and size, but we really -- we have a very customer-intensive network. And so we have a lot of yards and locals that, first of all, we're looking to button down and make the service reliable. And with the head count we have right now, we see that we're able to do it.

布蘭登，我希望你一切都好。看，現階段我不會說我們可以在不增加人員的情況下增加增量。這取決於它是什麼以及它在哪裡。但我對第四季度的結果感到非常滿意，即列車尺寸更大的運行率。這顯然減少了對員工人數的影響。我們還有一些領域是我目前還沒有涉足的領域。我認為，這不僅僅是貿易和規模的問題，我們確實擁有一個客戶密集的網路。因此，我們有很多船廠和當地人，首先，我們希望保持穩定並提供可靠的服務。就我們目前的人數而言，我們認為我們有能力做到這一點。

So that leads us to know that we can do better. And so I see the opportunities really in the touches of the cars that we do today. So I see further incremental improvement. I see the ability with the capacity we're creating with the locomotives that we've got added to the storage count to the capacity we created online by having less movements. I see us being able to handle incremental volume with what we have in many cases. But again, there are those key areas we want to make sure that we have the right head count for.

這讓我們知道我們可以做得更好。因此，我在我們今天所做的汽車觸感中看到了真正的機會。所以我看到了進一步的漸進式改進。我看到了我們用機車創建的容量的能力，我們已經將其添加到我們通過減少移動而在線創建的容量的存儲計數中。我認為我們在很多情況下都能夠利用現有的資源來處理增量。但同樣，我們希望確保在一些關鍵領域擁有合適的人員數量。

Your next question comes from the line of Ken Hoexter from Bank of America.

您的下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Ken Hoexter。

So just, I guess, thinking about the performance there, either Mike or Joe, it looked like your on-time origination is down at 71%, on-time arrivals at 69%. What is still missing from the operations to get that efficiency improving? Have you changed the categories at all to see those sliding since the beginning of the year? Maybe just what are your thoughts on how that gets increased efficiency to get those additional operating leverage savings?

因此，我想，考慮一下 Mike 或 Joe 的表現，您的出發時間準點率下降了 71%，到達準時率下降了 69%。為了提高效率，營運中還缺少什麼？您是否對類別進行了更改，以看到這些類別自年初以來一直在下滑？也許您對如何提高效率以節省額外的營運槓桿有何想法？

Thanks, Ken. It just goes back to what I'm talking about in our yards and our terminal performance, and that's where our focus will be. Again, I've been getting the folks to really focus on connecting cars, increasing train size. So we're going through some growth periods in that sense. And yes, it's affecting the on-time performance. But at the end of the day, we're counting on making sure we fulfill the trip plan of the customer, and in some cases, it's going to change the way we design our network and the time the trains go. So I'm not concerned about that at this stage. It certainly isn't anything to do with congestion or poor performance. These are the growing -- the growth -- what would I call, growth observations of a network that's starting to change and really look to more maximize the assets that we have out there to create capacity.

謝謝，肯。這又回到了我所說的我們的船廠和碼頭的表現，這就是我們的重點。再次，我一直讓人們真正關注連接汽車、增加火車規模。因此，從這個意義上說，我們正在經歷一些成長期。是的，它影響了準時效能。但最終，我們希望確保完成客戶的旅行計劃，在某些情況下，這將改變我們設計網路的方式和火車運行的時間。所以現階段我並不擔心這一點。這當然與擁塞或效能不佳無關。這些是我所說的成長——成長——對網路的成長觀察，該網路開始發生變化，並真正尋求更大程度地最大化我們現有的資產來創造容量。

So it's not a cause of concern at this moment. Trust me, we look at it in a lot, measured at the minute. So this isn't -- it's not like we've got trains that are late, late, late. These are fractions of hours. And so that's fine. We know we have to operate on time. But at the end of the day, it's the delivery to the customer. It's their first mile, last miles. It's their pain points that we're focused on. And at the same time, we're driving efficiency through running a more condensed network.

所以目前這不是一個令人擔憂的問題。相信我，我們會仔細研究它，每時每刻進行衡量。所以這不是——我們的火車沒有晚點、晚點、晚點。這些只是小時的幾分之一。所以沒關係。我們知道我們必須準時運作。但歸根究底，還是交付給客戶。這是他們的第一英里，也是最後一英里。我們關注的是他們的痛點。同時，我們透過運行更緊湊的網路來提高效率。

Your next question comes from the line of Chris Wetherbee from Citi.

您的下一個問題來自花旗銀行的 Chris Wetherbee。

Maybe I just wanted to follow up on the resources question. I guess, as you think about the portfolio of the business opportunities ahead of you that informs the volume growth outlook, can that be done? Or what are the resources required, I guess, as you think about the plans? When we think about headcount, maybe specifically, but maybe also locomotives, what is the growth associated with that, that you guys have in the plan for 2024?

也許我只是想跟進資源問題。我想，當您考慮眼前的商機組合（影響銷售成長前景）時，這可以做到嗎？或者，我猜，當您考慮這些計劃時，需要哪些資源？當我們考慮員工數量時，也許是具體的，但也可能是機車，你們在 2024 年的計劃中與此相關的增長是多少？

Yes. I mean, Chris, one thing to just think about is we added head count through the year in 2023, right? So if we just held everything flat to where we ended the year last year, would be up 2% year-over-year with a little bit more of that year-over-year growth in the first half than in the second half. I think our view right now is that, by and large, with a couple of exceptions, we should be able to hold head count flat and absorb the new growth that's coming on in the network. And so we'll be able to do that. First quarter, it won't look like tremendous employee efficiency just because we added through the year last year, we get into the second half of the year. I think that's where you're going to see the labor productivity show up.

是的。我的意思是，Chris，需要考慮的一件事是我們在 2023 年全年增加了員工人數，對嗎？因此，如果我們將一切都保持在去年年底的水平上，那麼同比增長將是 2%，其中上半年的同比增長略高於下半年。我認為我們現在的觀點是，總的來說，除了幾個例外，我們應該能夠保持員工數量不變，並吸收網路中出現的新增長。所以我們將能夠做到這一點。第一季度，員工效率看起來不會很高，只因為我們增加了去年全年的數據，進入了下半年。我認為這就是你會看到勞動生產力出現的地方。

Yes. And just on top of that, too, Chris. Staying with locomotives, where we still have opportunity to use the locomotives we have out there working, use them harder. And so that's a big focus for us, whether it's dwell, whether it's connection, whether it's what they're pulling, I believe we have the capacity to grow just off of what we have out there right now.

是的。除此之外，克里斯。留在機車上，我們仍然有機會使用我們正在工作的機車，並且更加努力地使用它們。因此，這對我們來說是一個重點，無論是停留，無論是連接，無論是他們所推動的，我相信我們有能力在現有的基礎上實現成長。

Your next question comes from the line of Amit Mehrotra from Deutsche Bank.

您的下一個問題來自德意志銀行的 Amit Mehrotra。

Sean, can you just help us, I guess, calibrate 1Q expectations in terms of operating ratio? You talked about $30 million to $35 million of kind of one-timers in the fourth quarter. I think that's like 1 point of OR. Volume is down, I guess, a little over 6%. So that's obviously a headwind. Weather is tough. So just talk about that. And then on the cost side, PS&O costs, there's a lot of focus on labor. Again, it's your biggest cost bucket, but PS&O is a pretty large bucket. And if I look over the last 3 to 4 years, the rate of inflation in PS&O costs are like more than double revenue growth. So what's going on there? What's the opportunity to kind of hold the line or bring that down? Because if I remember correctly, back in '17, '18, that was really a great place to look for efficiency and opportunity. I just want to know if there's an opportunity there in '24 as well.

肖恩，我想你能幫助我們根據營運比率校準第一季的預期嗎？您談到了第四季度 3000 萬至 3500 萬美元的一次性支出。我認為這相當於 1 分 OR。我猜成交量下降了 6% 多一點。所以這顯然是一個逆風。天氣很難熬。所以就談談這個吧。然後在成本方面，PS&O 成本，人們非常關注勞動力。同樣，這是您最大的成本桶，但 PS&O 是一個相當大的桶。如果我回顧過去 3 到 4 年，PS&O 成本的通貨膨脹率相當於收入成長的兩倍以上。那麼那裡發生了什麼事？有什麼機會可以堅守陣線或推翻它？因為如果我沒記錯的話，早在 17、18 年，那確實是尋找效率和機會的好地方。我只是想知道24年是否還有機會。

Amit, on your Q1 margin question, I think I'll just sort of stick to what I said before in terms of building momentum from Q4 to Q1. That's our goal. It's to deliver, if we can, operating income growth sequentially from Q4 to Q1. The margins will be what they are based on what, where fuel prices settle. But can we grow margins as well in Q1. Sure. I think that's within the realm of possibility. Again, whether or notwithstanding, we had a rough couple of weeks. We're coming out of that, things are certainly looking better across the network as we speak. So you'll see the weekly volumes and see how that catches up from there. In terms of your comment on PS&O, I think it's a good reminder for everybody to go back and understand we added quality carriers a couple of years ago, a significant portion of the expenses within quality shows up in the PS&O line.

阿米特，關於你的第一季利潤率問題，我想我會堅持我之前所說的從第四季到第一季建立動力的說法。這就是我們的目標。如果可以的話，我們的目標是從第四季到第一季實現營業收入的連續成長。利潤將取決於燃料價格的結算地點。但我們第一季的利潤率也能提高嗎？當然。我認為這是有可能的。不管怎樣，我們又度過了艱難的幾週。我們正在走出困境，就在我們說話的時候，整個網路的情況肯定看起來更好了。因此，您將看到每週的交易量，並了解其後續情況。就您對 PS&O 的評論而言，我認為這是一個很好的提醒，讓大家回顧並了解我們在幾年前增加了優質承運商，質量方面的很大一部分費用出現在 PS&O 系列中。

And that is quite volume variable. And so as we see increases or decreases in the trucking revenue line, that's going to impact PS&O expense as well. We also added PanAm. There are PS&O expenses associated with the revenue that we added across that part of the network as well. And then PS&O can also be somewhat volume driven, particularly on the intermodal side, the terminal related expenses show up there on that line. So what I said was going from Q4 to Q1 on PS&O like we normally do, we would expect a little bit of a sequential increase in those costs and have no doubt, we are certainly focused on that line item amongst others as an area of opportunity to continue to drive cost savings.

這是相當可變的。因此，當我們看到卡車運輸收入線的增加或減少時，這也會影響 PS&O 費用。我們還添加了泛美航空。 PS&O 費用也與我們在網路的該部分添加的收入相關。然後，PS&O 也可能在某種程度上受數量驅動，特別是在多式聯運方面，碼頭相關費用顯示在該線上。因此，我所說的是從第四季度到第一季的PS&O，就像我們通常所做的那樣，我們預計這些成本會連續增加一點，毫無疑問，我們當然會重點關注該項目，並將其作為一個機會領域繼續推動成本節約。

Your next question comes from the line of Allison Poliniak from Wells Fargo.

您的下一個問題來自富國銀行的艾莉森·波利尼亞克 (Allison Poliniak)。

I just want to go back to the commentary on domestic intermodal specifically around truck conversion. It does seem like we're still really early stages. I would love to get your perspective on what can drive that acceleration in some of those conversions? Is it your reliability improving further? Is it better truck capacity? Just anything, any comments there on what could drive that acceleration of the space at this point?

我只想回到國內多式聯運的評論，特別是圍繞卡車改裝的評論。看起來我們確實還處於早期階段。我很想聽聽您對哪些因素可以推動其中一些轉換加速的看法？是你們的可靠性進一步提高了嗎？卡車容量更好嗎？只是任何事情，對目前什麼可以推動空間加速有什麼評論嗎？

Yes. I would think -- I've heard many characterize last year as maybe the worst trucking market they've seen in the last 40 years. So I think there's a lot of hope that we're at the bottom or have reached the bottom. I will say, and we've been recognized and I highlighted this in the opening comments, the customers are seeing the service levels that we're delivering. And I know Mike has plans to even improve some of our true terminal fluidity even further. We're looking at ways where we're going to measure the customer experience in a different way. Measure their truck on time terminal and all those things that really are important for those customers that drive value for their customers, quite frankly.

是的。我想——我聽很多人形容去年可能是過去 40 年來最糟糕的貨運市場。所以我認為我們有很大希望我們已經觸底或已經觸底。我想說，我們已經得到了認可，我在開場評論中強調了這一點，客戶看到了我們提供的服務水平。我知道麥克甚至計劃進一步提高我們真正的終端流動性。我們正在尋找以不同方式衡量客戶體驗的方法。坦白說，在終端上測量他們的卡車以及所有對那些為客戶帶來價值的客戶真正重要的事情。

So a lot of those initiatives are underway, and that gives us a lot of confidence as we move forward through the year that not only hopefully the market has bottomed, but on top of that, that we're going to be able to gain share with the service product that we're able to deliver.

因此，許多此類舉措正在進行中，這給了我們很大的信心，因為我們在這一年中前進，不僅希望市場已經觸底，而且最重要的是，我們將能夠獲得份額以及我們能夠提供的服務產品。

Your next question comes from the line of David Vernon from Bernstein.

你的下一個問題來自伯恩斯坦的大衛‧弗農。

So Sean, I think you called out, I think it was like $280 million or $380 million of deferred tax headwinds and $300 million of extra CapEx. I just want to confirm I got that $600 million headwind to cash flow rate for the year. And then as we think about timing, Sean, you were very clear about incrementals being better in the back half than the front half. Kevin, can you share anything on the rate at which you'd expect this single -- low to mid-single-digit sort of volume and revenue to show up? Is that also back-end loaded? Or how do we think about the cadence for the year?

所以肖恩，我想你說過，我認為這大約是 2.8 億美元或 3.8 億美元的遞延稅項逆風和 3 億美元的額外資本支出。我只是想確認我今年的現金流量遇到了 6 億美元的阻力。然後，當我們考慮時機時，肖恩，你非常清楚後半部的增量比前半部更好。凱文，你能分享一下你期望這首單曲的銷售量和收入出現的速度嗎？低到中個位數的銷售和收入？這也是後端載入的嗎？或者我們如何看待今年的節奏？

Yes, David, I'll start. So on your question there, Yes. So deferred tax, $380 million, which was essentially a benefit to 2023. We will make that payment in the first half of 2024. And then on the CapEx, basically going from 2.3 to 2.5. So that's about a $200 million increase on that side.

是的，大衛，我要開始了。所以關於你的問題，是的。因此，遞延稅款為 3.8 億美元，這本質上是對 2023 年的好處。我們將在 2024 年上半年支付這筆款項。然後在資本支出方面，基本上從 2.3 升至 2.5。因此，這方面大約增加了 2 億美元。

Yes. In terms of the cadence from a volume and revenue perspective, I think we've been clear in that first quarter, some coal dynamics, other things from a pricing perspective or probably the high watermark that we'll have to lap, but pretty even cadence through the year after that. You'll probably remember, we started to see some weakness into the second quarter on the industrial side of our business. And when you think about chemicals and our forest products business, in particular, some very strong, weakness that started to occur that we were -- that we'll begin the lap quite frankly, as we get into the second quarter, late second quarter and third and fourth. So -- but when we look across the year, we think we're able to achieve growth throughout the year.

是的。就產量和收入角度的節奏而言，我認為我們在第一季已經很清楚了，一些煤炭動態，從定價角度來看的其他事情，或者可能是我們必須超越的高水位線，但相當均勻之後一年的節奏。您可能還記得，進入第二季我們開始看到我們業務的工業方面出現了一些疲軟。當你想到化學品和我們的林產品業務時，特別是我們開始出現的一些非常強烈的弱點時，我們將坦率地開始這一圈，當我們進入第二季、第二季末時以及第三和第四。所以，但是當我們縱觀全年時，我們認為我們能夠全年實現成長。

(Operator Instructions) Your next question comes from the line of Ravi Shanker from Morgan Stanley.

（操作員說明）您的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的 Ravi Shanker。

Maybe just a follow-up on that. Kind of just on the operating leverage itself, I mean in theory, shouldn't we be seeing kind of the bulk of the operating leverage kind of show up now as we come off the floor of volumes and kind of you have the maximum fixed cost absorption? And kind of the follow-up question to that is, if the market stays softer for longer in 2024 and truck rates continue to be competitive, do you think the volumes that you guys are converting will be enough to drive that operating leverage? Or do you also need price to come on top of that?

也許只是後續行動。我的意思是，從理論上講，這只是營運槓桿本身，當我們離開交易量時，我們不應該看到大部分營運槓桿現在出現，並且您擁有最大的固定成本嗎？吸收？隨之而來的問題是，如果 2024 年市場持續疲軟並且卡車費率繼續具有競爭力，您認為您正在轉換的數量是否足以推動營運槓桿？或者除此之外您還需要價格嗎？

Yes, Ravi. So on the operating leverage point, I would say that the leverage is there underlying the business, right? We've had some discrete headwinds that I mentioned in the script. And as we go into the first half of this year, Q1, you got fuel lag from last year, you have other revenue coming down. You've got an insurance recovery. Those are things that we're going to have to lap and get behind us and then a little bit of a tail into Q2 as well, which is why in the second half, on a reported basis, you'll see it show up a lot more cleanly.

是的，拉維。因此，在營運槓桿點上，我想說槓桿是業務的基礎，對吧？我們遇到了一些我在劇本中提到的離散阻力。當我們進入今年上半年第一季時，你會發現去年的燃油落後，你的其他收入也會下降。您已獲得保險賠償。這些都是我們必須繞圈並落後於我們的事情，然後在第二季度也有一點落後，這就是為什麼在下半場，根據報道，你會看到它出現更乾淨。

In terms of the macro, I think, yes, we feel pretty confident about our ability to grow even in the face of a macro that's relatively flat. We have some business wins that are carryover, got some new business that's coming online, and we should be able to absorb most of that with the existing resources, if not tighten up the plan a little bit and save some costs.

就宏觀而言，我認為，是的，即使面對相對平坦的宏觀，我們也對我們的成長能力充滿信心。我們取得了一些可以結轉的業務，獲得了一些即將上線的新業務，如果不稍微收緊計劃並節省一些成本，我們應該能夠利用現有資源吸收其中的大部分業務。

Your next question comes from the line of Walter Spracklin from RBC Capital Markets.

您的下一個問題來自加拿大皇家銀行資本市場 (RBC Capital Markets) 的 Walter Spracklin。

So I wanted to go back to the coal forecast. I know you mentioned in your remarks here that domestic coal is expected to be modestly impacted. And when we're comparing it to other sources, EIA, you're saying U.S. production is going to be down 16% in 2024, and that's on the back of solar and the retirement of coal-fired capacity. Is this just a different market? Like is the retirement of coal-fired capacity just not in your catchment area? Is it -- what would lead to such a disparity between that kind of forecast and the one that you're providing here on the domestic coal front?

所以我想回到煤炭預測。我知道您在發言中提到國內煤炭預計將受到適度影響。當我們將其與其他來源進行比較時，EIA，你說美國產量將在 2024 年下降 16%，這是由於太陽能和燃煤發電能力的淘汰。這只是一個不同的市場嗎？您所在的區域是否沒有燃煤發電的退役？是什麼導致這種預測與您在國內煤炭方面提供的預測之間存在如此大的差異？

Yes, Walter, we all read your notes here. Obviously, we've been intimately looking at that, and we have our own sources. But we do a bottoms-up build up, right? We look at -- we talk to our customers. We understand what the demand they're seeing in their business, how they're forecasting, what they're telling their investors and their stakeholders in terms of what they're seeing. And quite frankly, this market right now is still a production -- production is going to either decide our upside or limit our upside. It's not -- we don't see a demand right now where it is impacting our volumes next year.

是的，沃爾特，我們都在這裡讀過你的筆記。顯然，我們一直在密切關注這一點，並且我們有自己的消息來源。但我們是自下而上進行建構的，對嗎？我們關注－我們與客戶交談。我們了解他們在業務中看到的需求、他們如何預測、他們向投資者和利害關係人傳達的訊息。坦白說，現在這個市場仍然是一個生產市場——生產要么決定我們的上漲，要么限制我們的上漲。事實並非如此——我們現在沒有看到影響我們明年產量的需求。

It's really a production-constrained market from everything that we're seeing. We see some weakness in the domestic market. We think there is an export market that can continue to push some of that volume into that market. So there is optimism. Obviously, I know this market can change quite quickly. The global environment changes quickly. But for what we see right now and what our customers are telling us, and there will be some weather impact as we get into the year. We'll look at the summer to see if it's hotter than usual or where that shakes out, that will obviously impact our domestic business. But we do think there's an export business that has an outlet for some of the domestic side if we saw some further weakness there.

從我們所看到的一切來看，這確實是一個產量受限的市場。我們看到國內市場有些疲軟。我們認為出口市場可以繼續將部分產量推入該市場。所以有樂觀的情緒。顯然，我知道這個市場變化得很快。全球環境變化很快。但就我們現在所看到的以及客戶告訴我們的情況而言，隨著進入今年，天氣將會產生一些影響。我們將關注夏天，看看是否比平常更熱，或者情況是否會發生變化，這顯然會影響我們的國內業務。但我們確實認為，如果我們看到出口業務進一步疲軟，那麼國內部分業務就有出路。

We have no further questions in our queue. And with that, this does conclude today's conference call. Thank you for your participation, and you may now disconnect.

我們的隊列中沒有其他問題了。今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與，您現在可以斷開連接。