CSX Corp (CSX) 2023 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Good afternoon, and welcome, everyone, to the CSX Corporation Second Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call. I will now turn the call over to today's speaker, Matthew Korn, Head of Investor Relations. You may begin your conference.

下午好，歡迎大家參加 CSX 公司 2023 年第二季度收益電話會議。我現在將把電話轉給今天的發言人、投資者關係主管 Matthew Korn。您可以開始您的會議了。

Thank you, Operator. Hello, everyone, and welcome to our second quarter earnings call. Joining me this afternoon are Joe Hinrichs, President and Chief Executive Officer; Jamie Boychuk, Executive Vice President of Operations; Kevin Boone, Executive Vice President, Sales and Marketing; and Sean Pelkey, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer.

謝謝你，接線員。大家好，歡迎參加我們的第二季度財報電話會議。今天下午與我一起出席的還有總裁兼首席執行官 Joe Hinrichs； Jamie Boychuk，運營執行副總裁； Kevin Boone，銷售和營銷執行副總裁；執行副總裁兼首席財務官肖恩·佩爾基 (Sean Pelkey)。

A presentation accompanying this call, you will find our forward-looking disclosure on Slide 2, followed by our non-GAAP disclosure on Slide 3. And with that, it's my pleasure to introduce Mr. Joe Hinrichs.

在本次電話會議附帶的演示文稿中，您將在幻燈片 2 上看到我們的前瞻性披露，然後在幻燈片 3 上看到我們的非 GAAP 披露。在此，我很高興向您介紹 Joe Hinrichs 先生。

Thank you, Matthew, and good afternoon, everyone. Thank you for joining our conference call. Our performance over the second quarter met our expectations, led by the strong results of our merchandise business. As we had indicated at year-end and again last quarter, we knew that we would have to manage through lower intermodal storage revenue and normalizing export coal prices. We expect intermodal volumes to be soft as imports slowed and destocking activity continued.

謝謝你，馬修，大家下午好。感謝您參加我們的電話會議。在商品業務的強勁業績帶動下，我們第二季度的業績達到了我們的預期。正如我們在年底和上季度再次指出的那樣，我們知道我們必須通過降低多式聯運倉儲收入和使出口煤炭價格正常化來應對。我們預計，由於進口放緩和去庫存活動持續，多式聯運量將疲軟。

That said, we also knew that we were gaining momentum with our customers, led by our improved service performance and in our own workplace as our ONE CSX efforts took hold. Our network continues to run well and our company's initiatives, combined with our employees' hard work and commitment of making a big difference in helping to set our railroad apart. There is much more to do but our results this quarter show signs of the progress we are making as we lay the groundwork for long-term growth and value creation.

也就是說，我們也知道，隨著我們的 ONE CSX 努力站穩腳跟，在我們改進的服務績效和我們自己的工作場所的帶動下，我們與客戶的關係正在不斷增強。我們的網絡繼續運行良好，我們公司的舉措，加上我們員工的辛勤工作和承諾，為幫助我們的鐵路脫穎而出做出了巨大貢獻。還有很多工作要做，但我們本季度的業績顯示了我們正在取得進展的跡象，為長期增長和價值創造奠定了基礎。

Turning to Slide 5. Let's review the highlights of the second quarter. We moved over 1.5 million carloads in the second quarter, led by a 3% volume growth in merchandise and 4% growth in coal, and our margins remained strong with an operating ratio below 60%, including the impact of the quality carriers trucking business. We generated $3.7 billion in revenue, which was 3% lower than the previous year and flat from the first quarter.

轉向幻燈片 5。讓我們回顧一下第二季度的亮點。第二季度我們的運輸量超過 150 萬車，其中商品銷量增長 3%，煤炭銷量增長 4%，我們的利潤率保持強勁，運營率低於 60%，其中包括優質承運商貨運業務的影響。我們的收入為 37 億美元，比上年下降 3%，與第一季度持平。

Operating income decreased 13% year-over-year to $1.5 billion, and our earnings per share decreased by 9% to $0.49. When making comparisons to last year, it's important to remember that our second quarter 2022 results included $122 million gain, representing $0.04 per share of EPS related to the Commonwealth of Virginia property sale. All in, this was a solid performance highlighted by great results in our core business. The fact that our team was able to drive 3% merchandise volume growth in such an uncertain macroeconomic market is a testament to what we are able to do when we work together.

營業收入同比下降 13% 至 15 億美元，每股收益下降 9% 至 0.49 美元。在與去年進行比較時，重要的是要記住，我們 2022 年第二季度的業績包括 1.22 億美元的收益，相當於與弗吉尼亞聯邦房地產銷售相關的每股收益 0.04 美元。總而言之，這是我們核心業務取得的出色業績所突顯的穩健業績。事實上，我們的團隊能夠在如此不確定的宏觀經濟市場中推動商品銷量增長 3%，這一事實證明了我們共同努力所能夠取得的成果。

Now moving on to Slide 6. Earlier this month, CSX released its new 2022 ESG report, which highlights the tremendous progress that our team has made in moving our company forward. And since I started here last fall, you've heard me talk about ONE CSX, about building a supportive and positive culture and about the need to consider all of our stakeholders when measuring our success as a company.

現在轉到幻燈片 6。本月早些時候，CSX 發布了新的 2022 年 ESG 報告，該報告強調了我們的團隊在推動公司前進方面取得的巨大進步。自從我去年秋天入職以來，大家都聽過我談論 ONE CSX，談論建立支持性和積極的文化，以及在衡量我們作為一家公司的成功時需要考慮所有利益相關者的必要性。

Many of you have asked me what this really means in practice? What does the railroad look like, where people feel valued and included? For its customers feel appreciated and where the communities in which it operates are respected. I think the pictures and highlights that you see here offer a small view into how we're making this happen here at CSX.

很多人問我這在實踐中到底意味著什麼？鐵路是什麼樣子，讓人們感到受到重視和包容？因為它的客戶感到受到重視，並且其經營所在的社區受到尊重。我認為您在這裡看到的圖片和亮點提供了我們如何在 CSX 實現這一目標的一個小視角。

To us, incorporating environmental, social and governance considerations into the priorities of our company goes hand-in-hand with our ONE CSX focus, adding to the greater sense of purpose that we all share. These are real authentic actions that we are taking today. We talk often about our environmental leadership and our clear advantage here over trucks as a core part of our value proposition to our customers and our shareholders. By expanding our user technology, conducting practical testing of alternative fuels and offering support and encouragement to our suppliers, we continue to make progress.

對我們來說，將環境、社會和治理考慮納入公司的優先事項與我們對 ONE CSX 的關注密切相關，增強了我們共同的更大使命感。這些是我們今天正在採取的真正的行動。我們經常談論我們的環境領先地位以及我們相對於卡車的明顯優勢，這是我們向客戶和股東提出的價值主張的核心部分。通過擴展我們的用戶技術、對替代燃料進行實際測試以及向我們的供應商提供支持和鼓勵，我們不斷取得進步。

As we reported in our press release last week, we are testing biodiesel blends in locomotives in revenue service. Last month, you heard that we were in talks with CPKC to form a joint venture for the development of hydrogen-powered locomotives, which offer encouraging promise as a low emissions fuel solution. What we probably do not talk enough about are all the incredible efforts made by our railroaders to build up the places in which we live and work. It has been a priority of ours to increase our company's positive cultural impact, and I'm proud of how quickly the people of CSX have responded.

正如我們在上週的新聞稿中報導的那樣，我們正在測試收入服務機車中的生物柴油混合物。上個月，您聽說我們正在與 CPKC 洽談成立一家合資企業，開發氫動力機車，這為低排放燃料解決方案提供了令人鼓舞的前景。我們可能沒有充分談論的是我們的鐵路工人為建設我們生活和工作的地方所做的所有令人難以置信的努力。增加公司積極的文化影響一直是我們的首要任務，我對 CSX 員工的反應速度感到自豪。

As you see here, our volunteer hours are up substantially. Our CSX-sponsored community events have multiplied and the number of people who we have been able to help and support has been incredible. I look forward to much more to come. There's one last item I'd like to mention.

正如您在這裡看到的，我們的志願者時間大幅增加。我們 CSX 贊助的社區活動成倍增加，我們能夠幫助和支持的人數令人難以置信。我期待更多的未來。我想提最後一項。

As CSX, safety is our top priority, and that's why we focus so much on our reported injury and accident rates. Our fundamental goal is to make sure that every one of our employees gets home safely every day. When that does not happen, and we lose one of our colleagues as we lost Derek Little last month, it affects us deeply. As a reminder, why we make so much effort on safety and how much more work we need to do.

作為 CSX，安全是我們的首要任務，這就是為什麼我們如此關注報告的傷害和事故率。我們的根本目標是確保每一位員工每天都能安全回家。如果這種情況沒有發生，我們就會像上個月失去德里克·利特爾一樣失去一位同事，這會對我們產生深遠的影響。提醒一下，為什麼我們在安全方面付出如此多的努力以及我們還需要做多少工作。

Now let me turn it over to the team.

現在讓我把它交給團隊。

Thank you, Joe, and good afternoon, everyone. As Joe just said, we continue to make every effort to enhance our company's safety performance. As Slide 8 shows, we made good progress this quarter with both our FRA injury frequency and FRA train accident rate improving sequentially. Our injury rate also improved year-over-year and was the lowest rate for a second quarter that we've seen since 2015. Our focus is to ensure that every employee, including new hires who are less familiar, understands and appreciates their part to reinforce our safety-focused culture.

謝謝喬，大家下午好。正如喬剛才所說，我們將繼續盡一切努力提高公司的安全績效。正如幻燈片 8 所示，我們本季度取得了良好進展，FRA 受傷頻率和 FRA 火車事故率均連續改善。我們的受傷率也同比有所改善，是自 2015 年以來第二季度的最低受傷率。我們的重點是確保每位員工，包括不太熟悉的新員工，理解並欣賞他們在加強我們以安全為中心的文化中所扮演的角色。

Turning to Slide 9. Our operating performance held up well over the second quarter and continues to lead the industry. Thanks to the hard work of our railroaders who execute the operating plan every day. I've seen firsthand a positive response to the efforts being made by our employees to strengthen our culture. Our men and women in the field are valued, included, respected, appreciated and listen to, which helps them feel even more pride in the service they're delivering to our customers. Because of them, we're able to show how well our scheduled railroading model works, and I'm excited as there are more opportunities ahead.

轉向幻燈片 9。我們的經營業績在第二季度保持良好，並繼續領先於行業。感謝我們鐵路人每天執行運營計劃的辛勤工作。我親眼目睹了我們的員工為加強我們的文化所做的努力得到了積極的回應。我們在該領域的員工受到重視、包容、尊重、讚賞和傾聽，這使他們對自己為客戶提供的服務感到更加自豪。正因為有了他們，我們才能夠展示我們預定的鐵路模型的運作情況，我很興奮，因為未來有更多的機會。

Velocity averaged 17.7 miles per hour in the second quarter, slightly lower than last quarter, but up substantially from the same period in 2022. Dwell averaged 9.3 hours, an improvement of over 20% compared to the same period last year. Intermodal trip plan performance of 96%, increased by 6 percentage points year-over-year, while carload trip plan performance of 84% improved by 25 percentage points. I'm pleased with the compliments and support we have received from our customers, regulators and shareholders on our service improvements. Our goal is to keep improving our service and sure that we can continue to sustain this over time so we can drive long-term growth for CSX.

第二季度平均速度為 17.7 英里/小時，略低於上季度，但較 2022 年同期大幅上升。平均停留時間為 9.3 小時，與去年同期相比提高了 20% 以上。多式聯運出行計劃績效為 96%，同比提高 6 個百分點；整車出行計劃績效為 84%，同比提高 25 個百分點。我很高興我們的服務改進得到了客戶、監管機構和股東的讚揚和支持。我們的目標是不斷改進我們的服務，並確保我們能夠隨著時間的推移繼續維持這一點，從而推動 CSX 的長期增長。

With that, I will turn it over to Kevin to discuss our sales and marketing performance.

這樣，我將把它交給凱文討論我們的銷售和營銷績效。

Thank you, Jamie. As Joe noted, despite headwinds across many of our markets, the team was able to capitalize on strong year-over-year improvement in service. Importantly, as service has improved, is opening up opportunities to discuss new business with our customers, where we are seeing our year-to-date pipeline up 30%. I'm proud of the team and the progress we have made. It means a lot of work ahead of us as we focus on building our pipeline of growth opportunities.

謝謝你，傑米。正如喬指出的那樣，儘管我們的許多市場都面臨著阻力，但該團隊仍能夠利用服務方面逐年強勁的改進。重要的是，隨著服務的改善，我們有機會與客戶討論新業務，我們看到今年迄今的渠道增長了 30%。我為我們的團隊和我們所取得的進步感到自豪。這意味著我們還有很多工作要做，因為我們專注於建立增長機會的渠道。

Initiatives, including white-boarding sessions with customers, increasing direct engagement with small and medium-sized shippers bringing new technology tools to better serve our customers and finally, expanding our reach by leveraging our TRANSFLO network in collaborating with both with our short line and Class I partners are just a few of the focus areas for the team as we move into the back half of the year.

進入今年下半年，團隊的一些重點領域包括與客戶舉行白板會議、增加與中小型托運人的直接接觸，帶來新的技術工具以更好地服務我們的客戶，最後通過利用我們的 TRANSFLO 網絡與我們的短線和一級合作夥伴合作來擴大我們的覆蓋範圍。

Turning to Slide 11. Our strong merchandise performance continued into the second quarter. With revenue increasing 5%, even as our fuel surcharge declined substantially on lower diesel prices. This growth was driven by 3% higher volume compared to last year and a 1% all-in increase in revenue per unit. As we saw in the first quarter, our customers are seeing improved service levels, which is opening opportunities and encouraging them to bring more of their business to our network.

轉向幻燈片 11。我們強勁的商品表現持續到第二季​​度。儘管我們的燃油附加費因柴油價格下降而大幅下降，但收入仍增長了 5%。與去年相比，銷量增加了 3%，單位收入增加了 1%，推動了這一增長。正如我們在第一季度所看到的，我們的客戶看到了服務水平的提高，這提供了機會並鼓勵他們將更多業務引入我們的網絡。

For the quarter, we saw many of the market trends continue from the start of the year. In automotive, we are seeing more consistent production, and we've seen our improved service with new opportunities and business wins. Minerals benefited from strong construction demand for aggregates and our improving cycle times in our metals and equipment business continues to be a bright spot with volumes up across steel, scrap and equipment. We've been successful in expanding our commercial relationships by translating our service product and to convert new business wins.

在本季度，我們看到許多市場趨勢延續了年初的趨勢。在汽車領域，我們看到生產更加一致，我們的服務也得到了改善，帶來了新的機遇和業務勝利。礦產受益於對骨料的強勁建築需求，以及我們金屬和設備業務週期時間的改善繼續成為亮點，鋼鐵、廢鋼和設備的銷量有所增加。通過翻譯我們的服務產品並轉化新的業務勝利，我們成功地擴大了我們的商業關係。

I'm also pleased that our fertilizer business delivered higher volumes year-over-year, supported by strong domestic shipments of [potash] and nitrogen. On the other side, chemicals continue to be soft, as demand remains challenged across our broad book of business. Office products faces headwinds in paper and pulp board, we've also seen some slowdown in export grains for ag and food. For the second half of the year, we expect to build on the successes we have had to win more wallet share of our existing customers while continuing our efforts to attract new customers away from truck.

我還很高興的是，在國內[鉀肥]和氮肥強勁出貨量的支持下，我們的化肥業務銷量同比增長。另一方面，化學品市場繼續疲軟，因為我們廣泛的業務領域的需求仍然面臨挑戰。辦公產品面臨紙張和紙漿板的逆風，我們還看到農業和食品穀物的出口有所放緩。今年下半年，我們希望在現有客戶的成功基礎上再接再厲，贏得更多的錢包份額，同時繼續努力吸引新客戶遠離卡車。

We expect auto, minerals and metals markets to remain supportive and will be important contributors to volume growth over the remainder of 2023. We look for destocking activity to wind down in many of the markets we serve, including chemicals, though timing there remains uncertain. What's most important is that our team is not sitting back and waiting for markets to turn, we are pushing forward with our own initiatives. Our business development group has been making great progress with our select site program and expanding our pipeline of partner projects, and we're strategically investing in developing new locations providing additional transloading capabilities and investing in railcars to drive more business to CSX.

我們預計汽車、礦產和金屬市場將保持支撐，並將成為 2023 年剩餘時間內銷量增長的重要貢獻者。我們預計我們服務的許多市場（包括化學品）的去庫存活動將逐漸減少，但具體時間仍不確定。最重要的是，我們的團隊不會袖手旁觀，等待市場轉變，我們正在通過自己的舉措向前推進。我們的業務開發團隊在選址計劃和擴大合作夥伴項目渠道方面取得了巨大進展，我們正在戰略性投資開發新地點，提供額外的轉運能力，並投資軌道車，為 CSX 帶來更多業務。

Turning to Slide 12. Second quarter coal revenue decreased 2%, as a 4% volume gain was more than offset by a 6% decline in revenue per unit driven by lower export coal benchmarks. We saw continued growth in export volumes due to beneficial cycle times, good performance at our Curtis Bay terminal and a push among our coal customers to move more tonnage into the overseas markets.

轉向幻燈片 12。第二季度煤炭收入下降 2%，4% 的銷量增長被出口煤炭基準下降導致的每單位收入下降 6% 所抵消。由於有利的周期時間、柯蒂斯灣碼頭的良好表現以及我們的煤炭客戶將更多噸位轉移到海外市場的推動，我們看到出口量持續增長。

Domestic utility shipments declined as we expected, as low natural gas prices weighed on coal burn, though demand in Southern utilities remained favorable. We expect momentum in export markets to continue over the second half of the year, with CSX volumes supported by new mine capacity and coal producers making opportunistic shipments into the international markets. On the domestic side, we see tougher comparisons versus a strong second half last year. But the hot summers providing a helpful tailwind early in this quarter. And just recently, we are seeing a few customers looking for additional sets. Of course, as international pricing benchmarks have eased from last year's record highs, we will see an impact on our revenue per unit into the third quarter.

國內公用事業出貨量如我們預期下降，因為天然氣價格低迷影響了煤炭燃燒，儘管南方公用事業的需求仍然有利。我們預計出口市場的勢頭將在今年下半年持續，CSX 產量將受到新礦山產能和煤炭生產商機會性向國際市場發貨的支持。在國內方面，我們看到與去年下半年的強勁表現相比，情況更加嚴峻。但炎熱的夏季為本季度初提供了有利的推動力。就在最近，我們看到一些客戶正在尋找額外的套件。當然，隨著國際定價基準從去年的歷史高位回落，我們將在第三季度看到對我們單位收入的影響。

Most of our exports are met coal with a benchmark around $225 per metric ton. We anticipate our third quarter all-in coal RPO will sequentially decline by a mid-teens percentage. Current international benchmark prices remained very healthy in supportive of strong production into the back half of the year.

我們的大部分出口產品都是煤炭，基準價格約為每噸 225 美元。我們預計第三季度煤炭恢復點目標將連續下降百分之十左右。目前的國際基準價格仍然非常健康，支持下半年的強勁生產。

Now turning to Slide 13. Second quarter revenue decreased by 18% due to a 10% decline in volume and a 9% reduction in revenue per unit, reflecting the effect of lower fuel surcharge. As in the first quarter, international intermodal drove most of the volume decrease with the business seeing headwinds from declining imports and inventory destocking. Volumes in the domestic business showed a much more modest decline helped by the good progress we continue to make with rail conversions and the team's efforts to identify new markets and lanes.

現在轉向幻燈片 13。第二季度收入下降 18%，原因是銷量下降 10%，單位收入減少 9%，反映出燃油附加費降低的影響。與第一季度一樣，國際多式聯運導致了大部分運量下降，該業務面臨進口下降和庫存去庫存的不利影響。得益於我們在鐵路改造方面繼續取得的良好進展以及團隊努力尋找新市場和新車道，國內業務的銷量下降幅度要小得多。

Our best-in-class Eastern service product continues to position us for truck conversion in the quarters and years ahead. Looking forward, while we and our customers are still looking for a rebound in the international business, pressing ahead with our own initiatives, we brought on a new shipper late in the quarter that recognize the value of our strong service product and we're seeing other opportunities in new lanes and growing activity at inland ports.

我們一流的東部服務產品將繼續幫助我們在未來幾個季度和幾年內進行卡車改裝。展望未來，雖然我們和我們的客戶仍在尋求國際業務的反彈，並繼續推進我們自己的舉措，但我們在本季度末引入了一家新的托運人，他們認識到我們強大的服務產品的價值，並且我們看到了新航線和內陸港口活動不斷增長的其他機會。

Domestically, we're encouraged by many opportunities to work more closely with all of our Class I partners to target truck conversion. Just one example of this is the agreement we reached with CPKC just a few weeks ago to create a new interchange in Alabama that will link our customers across the Southeast with key markets in Texas and Mexico. We think there's much more opportunity for new creative partnerships that can help bring even more business to all of the railroads. And we remain very excited about the opportunities ahead of us.

在國內，我們有很多機會與所有一級合作夥伴更密切地合作，以實現卡車改裝，這讓我們深受鼓舞。這方面的一個例子就是幾週前我們與 CPKC 達成的協議，即在阿拉巴馬州建立一個新的交匯處，將我們東南部的客戶與德克薩斯州和墨西哥的主要市場連接起來。我們認為，新的創造性合作夥伴關係有更多機會，可以幫助為所有鐵路帶來更多業務。我們對面前的機遇仍然感到非常興奮。

Now I'll turn it over to Sean to discuss the financials.

現在我將把它交給肖恩討論財務問題。

Thank you, Kevin, and good afternoon. Looking at the second quarter results. Revenue was lower by 3% or $116 million. Declines in fuel recovery, other revenue and benchmark-based export coal pricing [offset] benefits from strong merchandise pricing as well as volume growth across merchandise and export coal.

謝謝你，凱文，下午好。看看第二季度的業績。收入下降 3%，即 1.16 億美元。燃料回收率、其他收入和基於基準的出口煤炭定價的下降[抵消]受益於強勁的商品定價以及商品和出口煤炭的數量增長。

Operating income was down 13% to $1.5 billion, reflecting a $122 million headwind from cycling a gain on the Virginia property transaction. I'll discuss the expense line items in more detail on the next slide.

營業收入下降 13% 至 15 億美元，反映出弗吉尼亞州房地產交易收益循環帶來 1.22 億美元的阻力。我將在下一張幻燈片中更詳細地討論費用行項目。

Interest and other expense was $25 million higher compared to the prior year, and income tax expense decreased by $64 million on lower pre-tax earnings. As a result, EPS fell by $0.05, reflecting a $0.04 impact of lower property gains. Let's now turn to the next slide and take a closer look at expenses.

利息和其他費用比上一年增加了 2500 萬美元，所得稅費用因稅前收益下降而減少了 6400 萬美元。結果，每股收益下降了 0.05 美元，反映出房地產收益下降帶來了 0.04 美元的影響。現在讓我們翻到下一張幻燈片，仔細看看費用。

Total second quarter expense increased $105 million. Lower fuel price was largely offset by the prior year Virginia gain. While network efficiency improvements resulted in over $20 million of cost savings, across labor, PS&O and rents, it was not enough to overcome more than $100 million of headwinds from inflation and higher depreciation.

第二季度總支出增加了 1.05 億美元。較低的燃油價格在很大程度上被上一年弗吉尼亞州的漲幅所抵消。雖然網絡效率的提高在勞動力、PS&O 和租金等方面節省了超過 2000 萬美元的成本，但這還不足以克服通貨膨脹和較高折舊帶來的超過 1 億美元的阻力。

Turning to the individual line items. Labor and fringe expense increased $57 million, impacted by inflation and increased headcount. Importantly, service improvements are helping us get more employees home sooner with overtime ratios down nearly 10% and a significant reduction in the number of employees stuck away from home over 24 hours. As a reminder, midyear union wage rates stepped up by 4% on July 1 and will be reflected in our second half cost per employee.

轉向各個行項目。受通貨膨脹和員工人數增加的影響，勞動力和附加費用增加了 5700 萬美元。重要的是，服務的改進幫助我們讓更多員工更快回家，加班率下降了近 10%，並且 24 小時內外出的員工數量大幅減少。謹此提醒，7 月 1 日年中工會工資上漲了 4%，並將反映在我們下半年的員工人均成本中。

PS&O expense increased $37 million with inflation and higher repair and maintenance expense partly offset by savings in intermodal operations and cycling of costs related to the Pan Am acquisition. While we are overhauling and rebuilding more engines than last year, locomotive efficiency was 4% improved in the quarter. Depreciation was up $33 million as a result of last year's equipment study as well as a larger asset base.

由於通貨膨脹和更高的維修和保養費用，PS&O 費用增加了 3700 萬美元，部分被多式聯運運營和與泛美收購相關的成本循環節省所抵消。雖然我們檢修和改造的發動機比去年更多，但本季度機車效率提高了 4%。由於去年的設備研究以及更大的資產基礎，折舊增加了 3,300 萬美元。

Fuel cost was down $134 million, driven by a lower gallon price. Equipment and rents was $5 million favorable, reflecting strong improvement in car cycle times with merchandise cycles 13% better than last year. These efficiency gains more than offset costs from inflation and higher volume, particularly in the automotive market. Finally, as discussed, property gains were $117 million unfavorable in the quarter.

由於加侖價格下降，燃料成本下降了 1.34 億美元。設備和租金優惠 500 萬美元，反映出汽車週期時間的顯著改善，商品週期比去年提高了 13%。這些效率的提高遠遠抵消了通貨膨脹和銷量增加帶來的成本，特別是在汽車市場。最後，正如所討論的，本季度房地產收益為 1.17 億美元。

Now turning to cash flow and distributions on Slide 17. After fully funding infrastructure investments and strategic projects, CSX has generated $1.5 billion of free cash flow year-to-date. This has supported $2.4 billion in shareholder returns, including over $1.9 billion in share repurchases and $450 million of dividends. We were encouraged to receive recent news of a credit ratings upgrade. This move reflects the strong core cash-generating power of CSX through economic cycles, which supports our ongoing commitment to investing in the business, and our balanced opportunistic approach to capital return.

現在轉向幻燈片 17 上的現金流和分配。在為基礎設施投資和戰略項目提供全額資金後，CSX 年初至今已產生 15 億美元的自由現金流。這支持了 24 億美元的股東回報，其中包括超過 19 億美元的股票回購和 4.5 億美元的股息。最近收到信用評級升級的消息令我們深受鼓舞。此舉反映了 CSX 在整個經濟周期中強大的核心現金生成能力，這支持了我們對業務投資的持續承諾，以及我們對資本回報的平衡機會主義方法。

Economic profit, as measured by CSX cash earnings is up over $80 million year-to-date. While intermodal storage revenue declines and export coal headwinds will have a more significant year-over-year impact in the second half. We remain committed to cultivating and investing in return-seeking projects that see the pipeline of mid- and long-term growth and efficiency gains.

按照 CSX 現金收益衡量，今年迄今為止的經濟利潤已超過 8000 萬美元。而多式聯運倉儲收入下降和煤炭出口逆風將在下半年產生更顯著的同比影響。我們仍然致力於培育和投資尋求回報的項目，這些項目有望實現中長期增長和效率提升。

With that, let me turn it back to Joe for his closing remarks.

接下來，讓我把話題轉回到喬的閉幕詞上。

All right. Thank you, Sean. Now let us conclude with some comments on our outlook for 2023, as shown on Slide 19. First, we reiterate our expectations that revenue ton-miles will grow in the low single-digits for the full year. We remain very happy with the performance of our merchandise business through the first half of the year and we look for volumes to be supported by continued strength in automotive, minerals and metals and the successes we have had in the marketplace.

好的。謝謝你，肖恩。現在，讓我們對 2023 年的前景進行一些評論，如幻燈片 19 所示。首先，我們重申我們的預期，即全年收入噸英里將以較低的個位數增長。我們對今年上半年的商品業務表現仍然非常滿意，我們希望汽車、礦物和金屬領域的持續強勁以及我們在市場上取得的成功能夠支持銷量。

We expect full year coal volumes to be higher driven by strong demand for export coal. As we noted last quarter, domestic coal shipments will likely soften as demand is impacted by low natural gas prices. For intermodal, as Kevin said earlier, we have seen modest signs of improvement for domestic intermodal activity starting late in the second quarter, but there are no signs yet of a near-term recovery for the international business. We are still benefiting from a favorable pricing environment though our expectation for a $300 million decline in supplemental revenue is unchanged, with most of that year-over-year reduction occurring in the second half of the year.

我們預計，在出口煤炭強勁需求的推動下，全年煤炭產量將有所增加。正如我們上季度指出的那樣，由於需求受到天然氣價格低迷的影響，國內煤炭運輸量可能會疲軟。對於多式聯運，正如凱文早些時候所說，我們已經看到從第二季度末開始國內多式聯運活動略有改善的跡象，但國際業務尚未出現短期復甦的跡象。儘管我們對補充收入減少 3 億美元的預期沒有改變，但我們仍然受益於有利的定價環境，其中大部分同比減少發生在今年下半年。

Lower international net coal benchmark prices will also impact our coal revenue per unit over the remainder of the year. As before, we are making our best efforts to drive efficiency and control costs to offset real inflationary pressures and we are committed to staying focused on improving service to our customers. And finally, we still estimate capital expenditures of $2.3 billion with a strong focus on innovation and growth.

較低的國際淨煤炭基準價格也將影響我們今年剩餘時間的單位煤炭收入。與以前一樣，我們正在盡最大努力提高效率並控製成本，以抵消實際的通脹壓力，並且我們致力於繼續專注於改善為客戶提供的服務。最後，我們仍然預計資本支出為 23 億美元，重點關注創新和增長。

To sum up, I am proud of the progress of the One CSX team continues to make. There is no doubt that we face some mixed economic conditions in the near term. However, there are so many opportunities opening up for us to win share, expand our markets and achieve profitable growth if we remain focused on safety, service, execution and working together. I am very excited about what is ahead for CSX. Thank you, and we'll now take your questions.

總而言之，我為 One CSX 團隊不斷取得的進步感到自豪。毫無疑問，短期內我們將面臨一些複雜的經濟狀況。然而，如果我們繼續專注於安全、服務、執行和合作，我們就有很多機會贏得市場份額、擴大市場並實現盈利增長。我對 CSX 的未來感到非常興奮。謝謝您，我們現在回答您的問題。

Thank you, Joe. (Operator Instructions). Emma, we're ready to start the process.

謝謝你，喬。 （操作員說明）。艾瑪，我們已經準備好開始這個過程了。

(Operator Instructions) Your first question today comes from the line of Chris Wetherbee with Citigroup.

（操作員說明）您今天的第一個問題來自花旗集團的 Chris Wetherbee。

I guess maybe I wanted to start with some thoughts on how the second half of the year, I guess. And in particular, how you think about matching resources to the volume and revenue environment that we're in right now. As you noted, you have coal and you have other revenue headwinds that are greater on a year-over-year basis as we move into the back half of the year. Certainly, volume is still like -- it's a little bit uncertain, Joe, as you mentioned, around the economic outlook. So how do we think about sort of managing the resources? I know service is coming back. Is it time that head count starts to decelerate on a sequential basis? Do you think that there's more work to be done there? Conceptually, how do you think about that fits in and what it maybe means to profitability in the back half of the year?

我想也許我想從一些關於今年下半年的想法開始。特別是，您如何考慮將資源與我們目前所處的數量和收入環境相匹配。正如您所指出的，隨著進入今年下半年，煤炭和其他收入逆風的影響力逐年加大。當然，正如你提到的，圍繞經濟前景，成交量仍然有點不確定。那麼我們如何考慮管理資源呢？我知道服務即將恢復。是不是人數開始連續減少的時候了？您認為那裡還有更多工作要做嗎？從概念上講，您認為這如何適應以及它對今年下半年的盈利能力意味著什麼？

Thanks, Chris. It's Joe. I think at a high level, we've noted some of the things that won't repeat from last year's second half, as you referenced. But we're really focused on getting our manpower levels up to continue to sustain the improved customer service levels that we've been delivering. And Jamie highlighted the tripling compliance in the second quarter around 84%. We've been in the 80s now pretty regularly since November of last year, and that's really resonating with our customers.

謝謝，克里斯。是喬。我認為，在較高層面上，我們已經註意到一些去年下半年不會重複的事情，正如您提到的那樣。但我們真正關注的是提高我們的人力水平，以繼續維持我們一直在提供的改進的客戶服務水平。 Jamie 強調第二季度的合規性增加了兩倍，約為 84%。自去年 11 月以來，我們已經經常進入 80 年代，這確實引起了我們客戶的共鳴。

We're watching very carefully what's happening with the volume. And we have a mixed kind of market out there, and Kevin highlighted, we've seen growth in metals and automotive and other parts of our business. Intermodal has been softer as we highlighted in chemicals, a little down. We'll see when that turns. But generally speaking, our volume has been holding up on the merchandise side. We've been growing merchandise business. So we're watching the volumes very carefully and making sure that we have the staffing levels to support sustained high levels of customer service. And the reason why that's so important is that Kevin and his team have really started to have some really good conversations with our customers.

我們正在非常仔細地觀察成交量的變化。凱文強調，我們的市場是混合型的，我們已經看到金屬、汽車和其他業務領域的增長。正如我們強調的那樣，多式聯運的化學品市場表現較為疲軟，略有下降。我們拭目以待。但總的來說，我們的商品銷量一直保持穩定。我們一直在發展商品業務。因此，我們非常仔細地關注數量，並確保我們有足夠的人員配置來支持持續的高水平客戶服務。這之所以如此重要，是因為凱文和他的團隊已經真正開始與我們的客戶進行一些非常好的對話。

We gained share in the first half of the year, and that picked up momentum in the second quarter and we're having very good conversations with our customers now that we're sustaining these high levels -- higher levels of service. And as Jamie noted, we want to continue to improve. Our focus is really on making sure we have the manpower to be able to sustain that. And also, at the same time, of course, if we see volume reductions further than what we're seeing right now, and we'll respond accordingly. But right now, the volumes that we're seeing are supporting this merchandise volume growth and our high levels of service.

我們在上半年獲得了市場份額，並在第二季度獲得了增長勢頭，現在我們正在與客戶進行良好的對話，因為我們正在維持這些高水平——更高水平的服務。正如傑米指出的，我們希望繼續改進。我們的重點實際上是確保我們有足夠的人力來維持這一點。當然，與此同時，如果我們看到銷量下降幅度比現在更大，我們會做出相應的反應。但目前，我們所看到的數量正在支持商品數量的增長和我們的高水平服務。

Your next question comes from the line of Jon Chappell with Evercore.

你的下一個問題來自 Jon Chappell 和 Evercore 的對話。

Sean, I wanted to ask you about the productivity improvements in the first quarter. You said $15 million to $20 million. You said more than $20 million in the second quarter. I think the plan was to eventually get to $30 million -- so I guess the question is essentially, do you get to $30 million by the back half of this year as a quarterly run rate? And kind of along the lines of Chris' question, if the volume environment is a bit softer, than you had anticipated 6 months ago? Could that $30 million even become greater as you think about 2H '23?

Sean，我想問你第一季度生產力提升的情況。你說的是1500萬到2000萬美元。你說第二季度超過2000萬美元。我認為計劃最終會達到 3000 萬美元，所以我想問題本質上是，到今年下半年，季度運行率是否會達到 3000 萬美元？有點類似於克里斯的問題，成交量環境是否比您 6 個月前的預期更疲軟？考慮到 2H '23，這 3000 萬美元還會變得更大嗎？

Thanks, Jon, for your question. Yes, your recollection is right in terms of what we said first quarter. So yes, we are building some momentum with $20 million -- a little over $20 million of what I would call sort of fluidity related savings year-over-year. Now just to be clear, we aren't really counting sort of changes in volume in that number up or down if there's costs related to that. This is sort of independent of that. This is things like cycling the cars faster and reducing costs related to that, reducing overtime, things along those lines.

謝謝喬恩的提問。是的，就我們第一季度所說的而言，你的記憶是正確的。所以，是的，我們正在用 2000 萬美元建立一些勢頭——略高於 2000 萬美元，我稱之為與流動性相關的逐年節省。現在需要澄清的是，如果存在與此相關的成本，我們並沒有真正計算該數字的數量變化。這有點獨立於那個。比如更快地騎車、降低相關成本、減少加班等等。

We do have line of sight to that number continuing to increase over the balance of the year, and we should be in that $30 million to $40 million range in the second half of the year is our plan, especially as we get out of summer here and labor availability starts to pick up, we get some more employees out of training. We feel pretty good about what that's going to set us up for in the second half of the year.

我們確實預計這個數字在今年餘下時間裡會繼續增加，我們的計劃應該是下半年達到 3000 萬至 4000 萬美元的水平，特別是當我們結束夏季並且勞動力可用性開始回升時，我們將讓更多員工停止培訓。我們對今年下半年的情況感到非常滿意。

Your next question comes from the line of Brandon Oglenski with Barclays.

你的下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的布蘭登·奧格倫斯基。

Kevin, I was wondering if you could follow up on the commentary around merchandise pricing reflecting service and a higher inflationary environment. But maybe contrasting that with the loss coal revenue and intermodal surcharges, if you could?

凱文，我想知道您是否可以跟進有關反映服務和更高通脹環境的商品定價的評論。但如果可以的話，也許可以將其與煤炭收入和多式聯運附加費的損失進行對比？

Yes. I mean when you look at our coal market, and particularly the export market, it moves with the benchmark prices. So that's something that as a swing producer keeps the producers here in the U.S., in the market, and it's worked very, very well and it's a great mechanism. We participate, obviously, when the pricing is very good. I mean it remains very, very supportive. We just had extraordinary prices last year that nobody expected would continue. But again, we participated in that.

是的。我的意思是，當你觀察我們的煤炭市場，特別是出口市場時，它會隨著基準價格的變化而變化。因此，作為搖擺製作人，這可以讓製作人留在美國，留在市場上，而且效果非常非常好，這是一個很好的機制。顯然，當定價非常好時我們就會參與。我的意思是它仍然非常非常支持。去年我們剛剛經歷了非凡的價格，沒有人預料到這種情況會持續下去。但我們再次參與其中。

When you look across our -- the rest of our portfolio, particularly on the merchandise side, it remains supportive of the inflationary environment out there. And our customers are getting price in the market and they're not surprised that our ability to go and have those discussions are similar to what they're having with their customers. So the alignment is there. Certainly, I think the market would be. People are looking for inflation to come down a little bit, and we'll see how the market continues. But market from a pricing perspective, both in merchandise and maybe a little bit less so in the spot market on the intermodal side. Obviously, that's been a little bit softer, but still very, very healthy and will carry forward into next year.

當你審視我們的其他投資組合時，特別是在商品方面，它仍然支持通脹環境。我們的客戶正在市場上獲取價格，他們對我們進行這些討論的能力與他們與客戶進行的討論相似並不感到驚訝。所以對齊就在那裡。當然，我認為市場會如此。人們期待通脹稍微下降，我們將看看市場如何繼續。但從定價角度來看，無論是在商品市場，還是在多式聯運方面的現貨市場，情況可能會稍差一些。顯然，這有點軟了，但仍然非常非常健康，並將延續到明年。

Your next question comes from the line of Scott Group with Wolfe Research.

您的下一個問題來自 Scott Group 和 Wolfe Research 的線路。

Sorry about my voice. Hopefully, you can hear me. So the coal RPU guidance was helpful. How should we think about the fuel impact in the third quarter? What are the other puts and takes as I think about operating ratio, profit Q2 to Q3? And then just like bigger picture, it feels like there's still a pretty good gap between underlying pricing and some really elevated inflation. Like when does that normalize in your mind?

對不起我的聲音。希望你能聽到我的聲音。因此，煤炭 RPU 指導是有幫助的。我們應該如何看待第三季度的燃油影響？當我考慮運營比率、第二季度到第三季度的利潤時，其他看跌期權和看跌期權是什麼？然後，就像更大的圖景一樣，感覺基礎價格和一些真正高漲的通脹之間仍然存在相當大的差距。就像什麼時候這在你的腦海中變得正常一樣？

Scott, it's Sean. Yes, so in terms of Q3 versus Q2, I mean, I think step back just a minute and think about what are we ultimately trying to achieve here. We've got a service product that's -- it's well in excess of where it's been and certainly one of the best if not the best in the industry. That's ultimately going to translate into the ability to win business off the highway and we're seeing those. We're seeing a number of those opportunities present themselves. Over time, that's going to have a really positive impact, not just on margins, but also on obviously being able to grow the top and bottom line of the company.

斯科特，這是肖恩。是的，所以就第三季度與第二季度而言，我的意思是，我想退一步思考一下我們最終想要實現的目標是什麼。我們的服務產品遠遠超出了以往的水平，即使不是業內最好的，也是最好的之一。這最終將轉化為贏得高速公路業務的能力，我們正在看到這些。我們看到許多這樣的機會正在出現。隨著時間的推移，這將產生真正積極的影響，不僅對利潤率，而且明顯能夠提高公司的營收和利潤。

When we look at the third quarter specifically relative to the second, we've got the headwinds that Kevin talked about on coal pricing. We've had positive fuel lag all year long. We're seeing fuel prices settle a little bit here, so that could be a little bit of a headwind into the third quarter. And then as I mentioned, we've got the union wage rate increases of 4%. So that will add some costs.

當我們特別關注第三季度相對於第二季度的情況時，我們看到了凱文談到的煤炭定價方面的阻力。我們一整年都處於正燃油滯後狀態。我們看到燃料價格略有穩定，因此這可能會對第三季度產生一些不利影響。正如我提到的，我們的工會工資上漲了 4%。所以這會增加一些成本。

In terms of the second half of your question, the gap between pricing and inflation, we're seeing mid-single-digit inflation across both labor and fringe and purchase services and other. That's going to persist here for the balance of the year. We've got a clean line of sight into the labor line. And most of the PS&O is essentially set for the year from a rate perspective.

就你問題的後半部分而言，即定價與通貨膨脹之間的差距，我們看到勞動力和邊緣以及購買服務和其他領域的通貨膨脹率處於中等個位數。在今年餘下的時間裡，這種情況將持續存在。我們對勞工線有了清晰的視野。大多數 PS&O 基本上是從利率角度設定的。

I would also say, and Kevin can chime in if there's additional info. But I think most of the pricing for the year has been done, we'll start to get into pricing for next year as we get towards the end of the year. And so far, conversations have been -- continue to be very supportive.

我還想說，如果有更多信息，凱文可以插話。但我認為今年的大部分定價已經完成，我們將在年底時開始考慮明年的定價。到目前為止，對話仍然非常支持。

Yes, I think that's right. We've seen the pricing reflect in inflationary environment. And there's multiyear contracts that we'll still have to touch at the back half of this year that probably need a little bit of catch-up. But beyond that, I think it's well in line with what the inflationary market is out there, particularly on the merchandise business today.

是的，我認為這是對的。我們已經看到定價反映在通貨膨脹環境中。今年下半年我們仍然需要接觸一些多年期合同，可能需要一些補足。但除此之外，我認為這與通貨膨脹市場的情況非常一致，特別是在當今的商品業務方面。

Your next question comes from the line of Ken Hoexter with Bank of America.

您的下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Ken Hoexter。

So just to understand this environment, Joe or maybe, Kevin, as you move into the third quarter, you're targeting -- still targeting low single-digit revenue ton-mile growth. I guess you're running about 2% or so year-to-date. So do you think that moves negative based on the current weak volumes that we're seeing so far right now? And then if we do get that weak environment that we're talking about, can you still improve operating ratio as we move into the third quarter, if you're looking at revenue stay above cost of inflation?

因此，為了了解這種環境，喬或凱文，當您進入第三季度時，您的目標仍然是低單位數收入噸英里增長。我猜你今年迄今的運行率約為 2% 左右。那麼，您認為基於目前我們目前看到的疲弱成交量，情況是否會出現負面變化？然後，如果我們確實遇到了我們正在談論的疲軟環境，那麼當我們進入第三季度時，如果您希望收入保持在通脹成本之上，您還能提高運營比率嗎？

Yes. I think, Ken, you'll remember, I think as you move into the back half of the year and as you enter into the fourth quarter, we're also going to lap a lot of easier comps, whether it's the international intermodal market or some of the markets that we saw. Some order softness begin in September and really carry through the fourth quarter. So I would say things will probably trend positively through the quarter, which will be helpful from a revenue -- RTM growth perspective.

是的。我想，肯，你會記得，我認為當你進入今年下半年和進入第四季度時，我們也將進行很多更容易的比較，無論是國際多式聯運市場還是我們看到的一些市場。一些訂單疲軟從 9 月份開始，並一直持續到第四季度。所以我想說，整個季度情況可能會呈積極趨勢，這從收入——RTM 增長的角度來看將是有幫助的。

Coal is a dynamic market right now. Look, 2 weeks, 3 weeks ago before this hot summer started probably a little bit lower outlook for domestic coal business. But just recently, we're getting a lot more interest and a lot more inbounds on what we can do, given some of the heatwaves we're having. In fact, I think we got a heat warning here in Jacksonville this afternoon. So things have been hot. Obviously, that's supportive of that market. And so things can change, our very dynamic can change quickly.

煤炭目前是一個充滿活力的市場。看看，兩週前、三週前，在這個炎熱的夏天開始之前，國內煤炭業務的前景可能會有點低。但就在最近，考慮到我們正在經歷的一些熱浪，我們對我們能做的事情產生了更多的興趣和更多的興趣。事實上，我認為今天下午我們在傑克遜維爾收到了高溫警告。所以事情一直很熱。顯然，這支持了該市場。所以事情會發生變化，我們的活力會迅速改變。

The destocking, I think I mentioned it in my prepared remarks, we've seen destocking for a while in some of these markets. I don't -- I can't call the month or the quarter of when that stops, but there's many markets right now where we're underrunning I think, the demand that's out there in the business. So once that normalizes to the underlying demand in the economy, I think that's an opportunity for us, too. And I'm hopeful that as we move into the fourth quarter, we'll see some of those dynamics play out. And then as Joe pointed out, there's -- the team has been doing a fantastic job and some of the efforts and some of the collaboration that we've had with Jamie and his team on the operations side is resulting in wins and those start to layer in as we move through the year and into next year, and you'll start to see that in our business as well.

我想我在準備好的發言中提到了去庫存，我們已經看到其中一些市場去庫存了一段時間。我不知道——我無法確定這種情況會在哪一個月或哪一季度停止，但我認為，目前在許多市場上，我們都未能滿足業務中的需求。因此，一旦經濟的潛在需求正常化，我認為這對我們來說也是一個機會。我希望，當我們進入第四季度時，我們會看到其中一些動態發揮作用。然後，正如喬指出的那樣，團隊一直在做出色的工作，我們與傑米和他的團隊在運營方面所做的一些努力和合作正在帶來勝利，隨著我們進入這一年和明年，你也會開始在我們的業務中看到這一點。

Yes. And Ken, just on the second part of your question, I think the commentary you heard from Kevin suggest we're not calling a pullback in volumes. But to the extent that the macro presents something like that, there's things that we can do, there's levers that we can pull. And certainly, we would look to do that, but not to jeopardize the ability to continue to gain momentum and gain share off the truck, which is the ultimate goal here to kind of grow the pie and grow our profitability.

是的。肯，就你問題的第二部分而言，我認為你從凱文那裡聽到的評論表明我們不會稱銷量下降。但就宏觀呈現的情況而言，我們可以做一些事情，我們可以使用一些槓桿。當然，我們希望做到這一點，但不會危及繼續獲得動力並獲得卡車份額的能力，這是擴大蛋糕並提高盈利能力的最終目標。

Your next question comes from the line of Brian Ossenbeck with JPMorgan.

您的下一個問題來自摩根大通的布萊恩·奧森貝克 (Brian Ossenbeck)。

So maybe just on the topic of truckload conversion, it's been mentioned several times on the call. Obviously, it's a big opportunity. But can you give us any context in terms of the wins you're getting or you have line of sight to? Would you be able to quantify that at some point in time because clearly, making the long-term decision to go after that and sounds like you're getting some -- but it's hard to say what relative size that could be. And then, Sean, if you could just clarify cost per employee that we should expect for the next quarter? I know payments go up or the wages go up another 4%, but you got mix over time, a few other things in there as well. So it would be helpful if you can clarify that, too.

因此，也許只是在卡車裝載轉換的主題上，它就在電話會議中被多次提及。顯然，這是一個很大的機會。但是您能給我們介紹一下您所獲得的勝利或您所看到的勝利嗎？你是否能夠在某個時間點量化這一點，因為清楚地做出長期決定，聽起來你會得到一些——但很難說相對大小可能是多少。然後，肖恩，您能否澄清一下我們預計下一季度的每位員工成本？我知道付款會增加或工資會再增加 4%，但隨著時間的推移，你會得到混合，還有其他一些東西。因此，如果您也能澄清這一點，將會很有幫助。

Yes. I think in terms of numbers, we'll probably put a finer point on the truck conversion opportunity over the next 3 years at some time in the future. There's a huge focus by the team to really look at our pipeline and measure it and focus on those customers where there's an opportunity and some customers have a lot more opportunities than others and making sure we have the resources up against those customers to really drive that conversion. So a lot of activity. We have a lot of new tools internally that we're focused on in terms of measuring that. So our data is getting better and better every day, and there's a lot of momentum. And as I mentioned, our pipeline, as we measure it on a year-over-year basis, is up significantly, up 30%.

是的。我認為，就數字而言，我們可能會在未來 3 年的某個時間對卡車改裝機會進行更詳細的闡述。團隊非常關注我們的渠道並對其進行衡量，並關注那些有機會的客戶，有些客戶比其他客戶有更多的機會，並確保我們擁有與這些客戶相對應的資源，以真正推動轉化。所以有很多活動。我們內部有很多新工具，我們專注於衡量這一點。所以我們的數據每天都在變得越來越好，並且有很大的動力。正如我所提到的，我們的管道，按照我們的同比衡量，顯著增長，增長了 30%。

On a dollar volume perspective, it's up even more than that. So a lot of momentum building. Obviously, the trucking market is not the most receptive market to compete against right now. Hopefully, there's some optimism that's firming up here, and that will even drive more opportunities as we work with customers over the next few months to drive more opportunities. And we're upwards of 25 white-boarding sessions year-to-date, and those are driving a lot of opportunities. They don't necessarily come to fruition tomorrow. But over the next couple of quarters, we think those are going to translate into a lot of opportunities to shift share from truck as well. So teams are very, very excited. I don't think we've had this much of momentum in terms of the things that we can control going forward. It's just some of these markets obviously are against us right now.

從美元交易量的角度來看，其漲幅甚至更大。因此，勢頭正在增強。顯然，卡車運輸市場目前並不是最容易競爭的市場。希望這裡的樂觀情緒正在增強，當我們在接下來的幾個月中與客戶合作以創造更多機會時，這甚至會帶來更多機會。今年迄今為止，我們已經舉辦了超過 25 場白板會議，這些會議帶來了很多機會。它們不一定明天就能實現。但在接下來的幾個季度，我們認為這些也將轉化為大量轉移卡車份額的機會。所以團隊都非常非常興奮。我認為在我們可以控制的未來事情方面，我們沒有這麼大的動力。只是其中一些市場現在顯然對我們不利。

Over to you, Sean.

交給你了，肖恩。

And in terms of cost per employee, it should be fairly stable other than the 4% wage increase on the union piece. I think there are some opportunities to drive some efficiencies there. So we hope to do better than a 4% increase from the first half to the second half, but we'll certainly feel the impact of higher wages.

就每位員工的成本而言，除了工會工資增加 4% 之外，應該相當穩定。我認為那裡有一些提高效率的機會。所以我們希望做得比上半年到下半年增長4%更好，但我們肯定會感受到工資上漲的影響。

Your next question comes from the line of Justin Long with Stephens.

你的下一個問題來自賈斯汀·朗和斯蒂芬斯的對話。

I wanted to ask about intermodal because there's a big divergence between the domestic intermodal and international intermodal volume trends. And I was wondering if you could share how those numbers compared in the second quarter? And looking into the back half, around your comment about the domestic intermodal market gaining momentum. Is that a function of demand getting better or your expectation for business wins starting to kick in?

我想問一下多式聯運的問題，因為國內多式聯運和國際多式聯運的運量趨勢存在很大差異。我想知道您是否可以分享第二季度這些數字的比較情況？展望後半段，圍繞您對國內多式聯運市場勢頭強勁的評論。這是需求改善的結果還是您對業務勝利的預期開始顯現？

Yes. I think when you look at the second quarter, think about the international market being down in that high-teens range. We probably from a bottom perspective, peak down in that mid-20s, and it's improved slightly from there. So our exit rate is a little bit better than what we saw middle of the quarter.

是的。我認為，當你看到第二季度時，請考慮一下國際市場的下跌幅度。我們可能從底部的角度來看，在 20 多歲左右達到頂峰，然後略有改善。因此，我們的退出率比我們在本季度中期看到的要好一些。

What we saw through the quarter on the domestic side is sequential improvement month-over-month or on a year-over-year basis each month as we get to move through the quarter. So that gives us optimism there. The team has done, quite frankly, a fantastic job of introducing some new lanes, working with some of our Class I partners to do that and identify new business. And some of those things are really playing out. Some of our partners have done really, really well in the market despite some of the obviously, headwinds there. So working with them, identifying markets where we have some opportunities. And in these kind of markets, it gives you more flexibility to go out there and look at things, look at your network, identify opportunities, try things out that may work. And really go after it. So that's what the team has been using the softness in the market to go and do and set us up for growth as the market rebounds. And I think you're starting to see that in the numbers here.

我們在本季度看到國內市場逐月或逐年逐月連續改善。這讓我們感到樂觀。坦率地說，該團隊在引入一些新車道、與我們的一些一級合作夥伴合作並確定新業務方面做得非常出色。其中一些事情確實正在發生。儘管存在一些明顯的阻力，但我們的一些合作夥伴在市場上的表現確實非常好。因此，與他們合作，確定我們有機會的市場。在此類市場中，它為您提供了更大的靈活性，讓您可以走出去觀察事物，查看您的網絡，識別機會，嘗試可能有效的方法。並真正去追求它。這就是團隊一直在利用市場疲軟的情況去做的事情，並為我們在市場反彈時實現增長做好準備。我想你已經開始從這裡的數字中看到這一點了。

Your next question comes from the line of Tom Wadewitz with UBS.

您的下一個問題來自瑞銀集團 (UBS) 的湯姆·瓦德維茨 (Tom Wadewitz)。

Yes. Great. Appreciate it. I know you've got a lot of questions, Kevin, on volume. And maybe there is not -- tough not to have a clear crystal ball in this type of environment. But I guess, how do you think about the kind of -- in a -- you've got good momentum with the service, good discussions with customers. You're talking about the pipeline is good. If we see some improvement get beyond inventory reduction, just see a bit of improvement in demand. Do you think you're going to see maybe a bigger cyclical swing up and maybe more evidence of some of that truck conversion coming through? Or I guess I'm just trying to think about -- we know it's a tough rate backdrop, but what is -- how do these things translate when you see some improvement in markets? Is it mid-single-digit volumes higher? How do you think about that potential framework, maybe looking at a little ways?

是的。偉大的。欣賞它。凱文，我知道你對音量有很多疑問。也許沒有——在這種環境下很難沒有一個清晰的水晶球。但我想，你如何看待這種——在某種程度上——你的服務勢頭良好，與客戶進行了良好的討論。你說的管道很好。如果我們看到庫存減少之外還有一些改善，那麼需求也會有一些改善。您是否認為您會看到更大的周期性波動，以及更多卡車轉型的證據？或者我想我只是想思考一下——我們知道這是一個艱難的利率背景，但是當你看到市場有所改善時，這些事情會如何轉化？成交量是否高出中個位數？您如何看待這個潛在的框架，也許會考慮一些方法？

Yes, I probably won't put numbers around it, but there's a reason we're hiring. There's -- we see all the things that we can control internally, setting us up nicely for when the markets rebound. And yes, I think the combination of markets returning at least to -- in some cases, just the current demand levels is going to create a lot of leverage in our business to do that. And I think you'll see some of these businesses. We're having discussions around truck conversion as the market firms up, more willing to move that freight back over to rail or move it to rail for the first time. So -- it's -- the pipeline takes a while to build up. It's been -- as Joe was pointing out earlier, it's been about 9 months since we've seen that rail improvement. And the customers are reacting to it, some sooner than others. But yes, that's the idea of all these investments, obviously, will help us participate when that cyclical upside starts to occur.

是的，我可能不會給出具體數字，但我們招聘是有原因的。我們看到所有我們可以在內部控制的事情，為我們在市場反彈時做好準備。是的，我認為市場組合至少會恢復到——在某些情況下，僅當前的需求水平就會為我們的業務創造很大的槓桿作用來做到這一點。我想你會看到其中一些企業。隨著市場走強，我們正在討論卡車改裝，更願意將貨運重新轉移到鐵路或首次轉移到鐵路。因此，管道的建立需要一段時間。正如 Joe 早些時候指出的那樣，自我們看到鐵路改善以來已經過去了大約 9 個月。客戶對此做出了反應，有些人比其他人更快。但是，是的，這就是所有這些投資的想法，顯然，當週期性上漲開始發生時，這將幫助我們參與其中。

Your next question comes from the line of Fadi Chamoun with BMO Capital Markets.

您的下一個問題來自 BMO 資本市場的 Fadi Chamoun。

My question on the service level, like obviously, you have done a great job in rebuilding the service and doing the -- a comprehensive work on building the culture to sustain that longer term. But as we know, like some of the service issues we saw in the last 2, 3 years were all rail related. You had obviously a lot of friction coming to you from outside of your own network. I'm just wondering, how are you kind of thinking about some of these problems that are affecting your service from outside your network. But some of these partnerships that Kevin talked about, try to kind of iron out some of these friction areas that you see in the supply chain or are there opportunities to kind of build the service level that can be sustained even as demand comes back, which historically has been a challenge to service levels?

我關於服務水平的問題，很明顯，你們在重建服務方面做得很好，並做了一項全面的工作，建立文化以維持更長期的發展。但據我們所知，就像我們在過去兩三年中看到的一些服務問題都與鐵路有關。顯然，你在自己的網絡之外遇到了很多摩擦。我只是想知道，您如何看待這些從網絡外部影響您的服務的問題。但凱文談到的一些合作夥伴關係，試圖消除供應鏈中的一些摩擦領域，或者是否有機會建立即使需求回升也能維持的服務水平，這在歷史上一直是對服務水平的挑戰？

Yes. Thanks for the question. This is Joe. You're right. Over the last several years, supply chain across the globe was challenged, and we certainly felt the effects of some of that. We've got some benefits from that on the supplemental revenue side of things because things were gummed up in storage. But generally speaking, from a customer standpoint, it definitely impacted everyone.

是的。謝謝你的提問。這是喬。你說得對。在過去的幾年裡，全球的供應鏈受到了挑戰，我們當然感受到了其中的一些影響。我們從補充收入方面得到了一些好處，因為東西在存儲中被粘住了。但總的來說，從客戶的角度來看，它肯定影響了每個人。

And as we've noted in the past, around 40% of what we moved on the carload side touches another rail provider. So interchanges are important and the overall service levels of the partners we have across the Class I rails is really important. If you think about going forward, the ports aren't congested as much as they were, and we don't have a lot of the network all gummed up in the intermodal facilities and et cetera. So we should be able to run more fluidly when the market comes back on the intermodal side especially. So I think from a customer perspective, the things that have calmed down help and as our Class I rail partners continue to improve their service, the collective service that we give to the customer holistically will improve as well, which -- that's an opportunity for the whole industry going forward. That's the way we're thinking about it.

正如我們過去所指出的，我們整車運輸的貨物中約有 40% 涉及另一家鐵路提供商。因此，換乘非常重要，而且我們在 I 類鐵路上擁有的合作夥伴的整體服務水平也非常重要。如果你考慮一下未來，港口不會像以前那樣擁擠，而且我們的聯運設施等也沒有太多的網絡堵塞。因此，當市場恢復時，尤其是多式聯運方面，我們應該能夠更加流暢地運行。因此，我認為從客戶的角度來看，平靜下來的事情有所幫助，隨著我們的一級鐵路合作夥伴繼續改善他們的服務，我們為客戶提供的整體服務也將得到改善，這對整個行業來說是一個前進的機會。這就是我們思考的方式。

We can control our piece of it, and we want to keep getting better and more repeatable and more predictable and also working with our other Class I rail partners to do the same. At the same time, the other parts of the business have also freed up -- so as Kevin was alluding to, when that market comes back, we'll have the manpower levels, and we'll have the fluidity in our network and the system overall should be able to handle it in a better way, which should be better for the overall economy.

我們可以控制我們的部分，我們希望不斷變得更好、更可重複、更可預測，並與我們的其他一級鐵路合作夥伴合作做同樣的事情。與此同時，業務的其他部分也得到了釋放——正如凱文提到的，當市場回歸時，我們將擁有足夠的人力水平，我們的網絡將具有流動性，整個系統應該能夠以更好的方式處理它，這對整體經濟來說應該更好。

Your next question comes from the line of Amit Mehrotra with Deutsche Bank.

您的下一個問題來自德意志銀行的 Amit Mehrotra。

Kevin, can you just talk about the direction of travel for non-coal yield? I just would have expected a little bit of a better performance in the second quarter sequentially. I know there was a few headwinds that's pretty severe incrementally, that fuel headwind kind of moderates in 3Q. So just wondering what the direction of travel on that is. And then Sean, you made some good progress on PS&O costs in the quarter relative to I guess, that insurance gain adjusted first quarter. I know you've got some like leases that are expiring around intermodal container storage jars and things like that in the back half. What's the right way to think about PS&O coming down in the back half relative to what you did in the second quarter?

Kevin，您能談談非煤產量的發展方向嗎？我只是預計第二季度會有更好的表現。我知道有一些逆風逐漸變得非常嚴重，這使得第三季度的逆風有所緩和。所以只是想知道行駛方向是什麼。然後肖恩，相對於我猜的第一季度保險收益調整，您在本季度的 PS&O 成本方面取得了一些良好進展。我知道你們有一些像聯運集裝箱存儲罐和後半部分類似的東西的租約即將到期。相對於第二季度的表現，後半段的 PS&O 下降的正確看法是什麼？

Yes. Obviously, putting coal aside, obviously, that we've talked about on the international side. When you look at yields broadly, there's always mix, right? And when you look at our merchandise business, in general, one of the markets we've highlighted is obviously under cyclical pressure right now is the chemical market, which typically has a higher RPU. So that's weighed on the overall benefit you've seen from the merchandise side, and there's a lot of moving parts within it. But if you look at what we were able to achieve within the individual markets is quite healthy, I think despite some of the fuel surcharge headwinds that you saw.

是的。顯然，把煤炭放在一邊，顯然，這是我們在國際方面討論過的。當你廣泛地看待收益率時，總會有混合的情況，對吧？總的來說，當你看看我們的商品業務時，我們強調的目前明顯面臨週期性壓力的市場之一是化學品市場，該市場通常具有較高的 RPU。因此，這會影響您從商品方面看到的整體收益，並且其中有很多移動部件。但如果你看看我們在各個市場中能夠實現的目標是相當健康的，我認為儘管你看到了一些燃油附加費的不利因素。

The intermodal market obviously is unique given some of the challenges on the truck in what we have to do there, particularly on the spot market. But again, fuel surcharge is a much larger impact there. And absent that, you saw a flattish-type RPU, and that was mainly impacted by some of our longer-term contracts, obviously had positive rate. But on the flip side, some of the spot markets saw some significant downgrade along with the truck. But the market held in, obviously, a lot better than some of the trucking rates out there and what the markets do there. But overall, I was very pleased in some of the NPA results as we measure it are some of the highest results that we've seen in a long time, if you look broadly across some markets.

考慮到我們必須在那裡做的卡車面臨的一些挑戰，特別是在現貨市場上，多式聯運市場顯然是獨一無二的。但同樣，燃油附加費的影響要大得多。如果沒有這一點，你會看到持平的 RPU，這主要受到我們一些長期合同的影響，顯然具有正利率。但另一方面，一些現貨市場的評級也隨著卡車的出現而大幅下調。但顯然，市場的表現比一些卡車運輸費率和市場表現要好得多。但總的來說，我對 NPA 的一些結果感到非常滿意，因為如果你廣泛觀察一些市場，我們會發現這是我們長期以來看到的最高結果。

And Amit, your question on PS&O, I'm always hesitant to predict that line because there's a number of different puts and takes within it, that can impact the quarter. I will say that we are very -- we're focused on cost control, and we're making sure that we've got only the costs that are necessary in order to move the volume to the extent that intermodal volumes pick up a little bit, that will have an impact on PS&O costs. But outside of volume-related expenses, I would fully expect that we'd be able to kind of hold the line on the improvement that you saw in the second quarter in the PS&O going forward. And if you look at it on a year-over-year basis for the second half, that means we'll probably be able to absorb most of the inflationary impact in the second half, notwithstanding any sort of volume-related impacts that we might see.

阿米特，你關於 PS&O 的問題，我總是猶豫是否要預測這條線，因為其中有許多不同的看跌期權和索取金額，這可能會影響本季度。我想說的是，我們非常注重成本控制，我們確保我們只獲得必要的成本，以便將運輸量提高到多式聯運運輸量略有上升的程度，這將對 PS&O 成本產生影響。但除了與數量相關的費用之外，我完全希望我們能夠保持你在第二季度看到的 PS&O 的改善。如果你將下半年的情況與去年同期相比，這意味著我們可能能夠在下半年吸收大部分通脹影響，儘管我們可能會看到任何與數量相關的影響。

Your next question comes from the line of David Vernon with Sanford Bernstein.

你的下一個問題來自大衛·弗農和桑福德·伯恩斯坦的對話。

So Kevin, just to kind of dig into the mid-teens guidance for RPU sequentially. Does that kind of bring us to mark-to-market for $225 -- and then -- how do we think about the sensitivity? Can we extrapolate that sensitivity going forward if we're going to expect sort of benchmark pricing to either go up or down? Is that a good way to think about the sensitivity on further price changes? Because $225 was still, call it, $75 above the long run average in the prior decade.

Kevin，我只是想按順序深入研究一下 RPU 的青少年指導。這是否會讓我們以 225 美元的市價計價——然後——我們如何考慮敏感性？如果我們預計基准定價會上升或下降，我們是否可以推斷出未來的敏感性？這是考慮進一步價格變化的敏感性的好方法嗎？因為 225 美元仍然比前十年的長期平均水平高出 75 美元。

Yes. I think that's fair. Obviously, there's bottoms, right? And there's -- we protect ourselves both on the bottom and then on the top end, we don't participate in some of the extreme [stream] cases, but I think that's fair. $225 is kind of embedded in what we're coming into the quarter -- we've seen a little bit of positive uplift in that. So even as recently as the last couple of days. So we'll see where that trends. But we've seen a lot of stability, if not a little slight uptick in that market here recently, and we'll see what the fourth quarter brings.

是的。我認為這是公平的。顯然，有底，對吧？我們在底層和高端都保護自己，我們不參與一些極端的[流]案例，但我認為這是公平的。 225 美元是我們進入本季度的一部分——我們已經看到了一些積極的提升。即使是最近幾天也是如此。所以我們將看看這種趨勢。但我們最近看到該市場非常穩定，即使不是小幅上漲，我們也將看看第四季度會帶來什麼。

Your next question comes from the line of Jordan Alliger with Goldman Sachs.

你的下一個問題來自喬丹·阿利格（Jordan Alliger）與高盛的關係。

This is Paul Stoddard on for Jordan. I guess with the recent agreement on the West Coast for the long Shoreman, there's some anticipation that there could be some more freight being diverted back to the West Coast. I guess how are you thinking about that in terms of international intermodal long term? And do you think that's going to be offset by domestic intermodal?

這是喬丹的保羅·斯托達德。我想隨著最近在西海岸就長肖爾曼達成的協議，人們預計可能會有更多的貨物被轉移回西海岸。我想您對國際多式聯運的長期發展有何看法？您認為這會被國內多式聯運所抵消嗎？

I think the long-term trend, if you -- you just go to Charleston, you go to Savannah and you look at all the investments being made, there's a long-term growth opportunity on the East Coast and you'll continue to see our growth in the East Coast, which we'll continue to serve and benefit from.

我認為長期趨勢是，如果你去查爾斯頓，去薩凡納，看看所有正在進行的投資，東海岸有長期增長機會，你將繼續看到我們在東海岸的增長，我們將繼續為東海岸提供服務並從中受益。

Some stability on the West Coast is going to be helpful. As you know, a lot of our international business still comes across the west through Chicago and other interchange points. And unfortunately, a lot of that volume given some of the congestion on the West was either trucks, and we didn't see that volume. So as that we should benefit from a recovery there. So I don't see it as necessarily taking share away from what we're doing in the East, more as something that -- obviously, if the rails in the West begin to perform better on a year-over-year basis will benefit the Eastern network and some of that traffic coming to us.

西海岸的一些穩定將會有所幫助。如您所知，我們的許多國際業務仍然通過芝加哥和其他轉乘點穿越西部。不幸的是，考慮到西部地區的一些擁堵情況，其中很大一部分都是卡車，而我們沒有看到這個數量。因此，我們應該從那裡的複蘇中受益。因此，我認為這不一定會奪走我們在東部所做的事情的份額，而是顯然，如果西部的鐵路開始逐年表現得更好，將使東部網絡和一些來到我們這裡的交通受益。

Your next question comes from the line of Allison Poliniak with Wells Fargo.

您的下一個問題來自富國銀行的艾莉森·波利尼亞克 (Allison Poliniak)。

Just want to go back to Brian's question on modal conversion. When you talk to customers that aren't quite ready to convert yet. Is it simply price that's holding them back? Or is there something from a service perspective that they're looking for you to provide, that's just not quite there yet? Just any thoughts on that.

只是想回到布萊恩關於模態轉換的問題。當您與尚未準備好轉化的客戶交談時。僅僅是價格阻礙了他們嗎？或者從服務的角度來看，他們是否需要您提供一些東西，但還沒有完全實現？只是對此有任何想法。

Look, I think the most important thing for customers is reliability, right? And in some customers' eyes, they want to see more of that reliability. They like what they see today. We've got to continue to perform and how those conversations and sometimes it's lane-by-lane. It's carload-by-carload where we get that confidence from a customer. And so we're in the very early innings of this, and we feel the acceleration from first quarter to second quarter, and I expect those conversations to pick up even more in the third and fourth quarters as we continue to perform.

你看，我認為對客戶來說最重要的是可靠性，對吧？在一些客戶看來，他們希望看到更多的可靠性。他們喜歡今天所看到的。我們必須繼續執行這些對話，有時是逐條進行的。正是通過一車一車的運輸，我們才從客戶那裡獲得了信心。因此，我們正處於這方面的早期階段，我們感受到從第一季度到第二季度的加速，我預計隨著我們繼續表現，這些對話將在第三和第四季度得到更多。

Sharing what we're doing on the hiring side is incredibly helpful. Sharing with them what we plan to do to make our network more resilient, winning their confidence, but that's the #1 issue. It's not price. 99% of the time, we have a pricing advantage versus our truck competitor. So that's the opportunity for us. We have the environmental advantages. So we have all these things. We've just got to get the reliability to improve and that reliability is sustainable.

分享我們在招聘方面所做的事情非常有幫助。與他們分享我們計劃如何使我們的網絡更具彈性，贏得他們的信任，但這是第一個問題。這不是價格。 99% 的情況下，我們與卡車競爭對手相比具有價格優勢。這就是我們的機會。我們有環境優勢。所以我們擁有所有這些東西。我們必須提高可靠性，並且這種可靠性是可持續的。

(Operator Instructions) Your next question comes from the line of Walter Spracklin with RBC Capital Markets.

（操作員說明）您的下一個問題來自 RBC Capital Markets 的 Walter Spracklin。

I just wanted to shift focus from -- the pipeline looks really good, Kevin, and presumably that's merchandise base mainly. But looking into 2024 on some of your bulk areas and in particular, ag and coal, the EIA has just revised downward its forecast for next year by quite a bit. And then on the ag side, it looks like there's some severe drought conditions forming that's going to impact the current growing season. So looking into 2024, I mean that suggests that we could be bracing for some down double-digit volume growth in those 2 categories. Is there any offsets there that you would flag for next year that would offset some of those fairly negative forecast for those two particular commodities?

我只是想轉移注意力——管道看起來非常好，凱文，大概這主要是商品基礎。但展望 2024 年的一些大宗領域，特別是農業和煤炭領域，EIA 剛剛大幅下調了明年的預測。然後在農業方面，似乎正在形成一些嚴重的干旱條件，這將影響當前的生長季節。因此，展望 2024 年，我的意思是，這表明我們可能會為這兩個類別的銷量出現兩位數的下降做好準備。您是否會在明年提出任何抵消措施，以抵消對這兩種特定商品的一些相當負面的預測？

Well, really hot summer certainly doesn't hurt. And that's what we're in the middle of. Obviously, from a coal perspective and you're referencing mainly the domestic side, that's obviously dependent on the weather conditions and weather, I think is a surprise from a heat perspective to the upside here over the last few weeks, and we're seeing that with a lot of our customers running full out here and deploying some of the inventory levels. And -- so we'll see how the winter plays out. I think it's really, really early in July to call 2024. That seems a bit premature to me.

嗯，炎熱的夏天當然不會有什麼壞處。這就是我們現在所處的情況。顯然，從煤炭的角度來看，你主要指的是國內方面，這顯然取決於天氣條件和天氣，我認為從熱度角度來看，過去幾週的上行是令人驚訝的，我們看到很多客戶都在這裡滿負荷運行並部署了一些庫存水平。而且——所以我們會看看冬天會如何發展。我認為現在就在 7 月宣布 2024 年還為時過早。對我來說這似乎有點為時過早。

We see a very healthy export market as well. Obviously, that's driven by global macro conditions, but we have new supply coming online that will ramp up next year. That supply is going to land in the market. It's very competitive in the market, and we expect to participate in it. Many of the mines that we serve are going to be in the market almost no matter what conditions. So we see the volume there sustainable.

我們也看到了一個非常健康的出口市場。顯然，這是由全球宏觀條件推動的，但我們有新的供應量將在明年增加。該供應將登陸市場。市場競爭非常激烈，我們希望參與其中。我們服務的許多礦山幾乎無論條件如何都將投放市場。所以我們看到那裡的交易量是可持續的。

On the ag side, again, I followed these markets for a long time. I think July is a little bit premature as well. It has been hot out there. We'll see how the market firms up here but there's a lot of moving parts. We're seeing a little bit of weakness here in the third quarter, but we see some good indications into the fourth. So we'll see how that trends, and we'll watch the crop conditions as you are to see how that moves into the back half of the year. Obviously, we don't have as large of a franchise on that side as some of the other railroads, particularly in the West from an export perspective. So a little less exposure.

在農業方面，我再次長期關注這些市場。我認為七月也有點為時過早。那裡一直很熱。我們將看看這裡的市場如何堅挺，但還有很多變化的部分。我們在第三季度看到了一些疲軟，但我們在第四季度看到了一些好的跡象。因此，我們將了解這一趨勢，我們將觀察作物狀況，看看下半年情況如何。顯然，我們在這方面沒有其他一些鐵路那麼大的特許經營權，特別是從出口的角度來看在西方。所以曝光少一點。

Your next question comes from the line of Jason Seidl with TD Cowen.

您的下一個問題來自 Jason Seidl 和 TD Cowen 的對話。

Great. This is Elliot Alper on for Jason. On the international intermodal side, last quarter, you talked about how some of your larger customers were expecting a pickup in the back half of the year. So I guess, what have your customers said that has changed over the past 3 months that has resulted in no inflection yet? Maybe there's been any change in view in the peak season?

偉大的。我是艾略特·阿爾珀 (Elliot Alper) 替傑森 (Jason) 發言。在國際多式聯運方面，上個季度，您談到了一些較大的客戶如何期待下半年的提貨。所以我想，您的客戶說過去 3 個月發生了哪些變化但尚未導致變化？也許旺季的觀點有什麼變化？

I don't -- I wouldn't read any of our comments that just been any type of inflection down. We're just -- I don't think there's -- we're seeing in real time and inflection up in the market and I mentioned earlier, in the fourth quarter, we obviously start to lap a lot easier comps on a year-over-year basis. So I think from an overall growth perspective, fourth quarter will be a much easier comp than what we've seen throughout the year. And hopefully, that momentum will carry into next year. But there's no indications that the market is necessarily picking up. I don't -- I think we bottomed from that perspective. The question is how quickly the market recovers? And that will be heavily relying on the consumer and how that stands out into the holiday season going forward.

我不——我不會讀我們任何帶有任何類型的下降的評論。我們只是——我認為沒有——我們正在實時看到市場的變化，我之前提到過，在第四季度，我們顯然開始在同比的基礎上進行更容易的比較。因此，我認為從整體增長的角度來看，第四季度的業績將比我們全年看到的要容易得多。希望這種勢頭能夠延續到明年。但沒有跡象表明市場一定會回暖。我不認為——我認為從這個角度來看我們已經觸底。問題是市場恢復的速度有多快？這將在很大程度上取決於消費者以及消費者在未來假日季節中的表現。

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes our Q&A session for today and today's conference call. Thank you for attending. You may now disconnect.

女士們先生們，今天的問答環節和電話會議到此結束。感謝您的出席。您現在可以斷開連接。