CSX Corporation (CSX) 2022 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. My name is Lisa, and I'll be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the CSX Corporation Fourth Quarter 2022 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions). Before beginning, the company would like to remind you that the forward-looking disclosures have been provided on Slide 2, and non-GAAP disclosures are on Slide 3.

各位女士、先生，感謝您稍候。我叫 Lisa，今天將擔任本次電話會議的接線員。此刻，我謹代表公司歡迎各位參加 CSX Corporation 2022 年第四季財報電話會議。（接線員指示）。在開始之前，公司提醒各位：前瞻性聲明揭露已載於第 2 張投影片，非 GAAP 揭露載於第 3 張投影片。

I would now like to turn the call over to CSX President and CEO, Joe Hinrichs. You may begin your call.

現在我想把電話交給 CSX 總裁兼執行長 Joe Hinrichs。您可以開始了。

Hello, everyone, and thank you for joining our conference call. I'm here with Kevin Boone, Jamie Boychuk and Sean Pelkey, and we are excited to update you on our quarter results and share our initial views on the upcoming year.

各位好，感謝各位參加我們的電話會議。我與 Kevin Boone、Jamie Boychuk 以及 Sean Pelkey 一同出席，我們很高興向各位更新本季業績，並分享我們對即將到來一年的初步看法。

I first want to thank all our CSX employees for dedication as they work diligently on behalf of our customers through all the challenges and uncertainties that we faced in 2022. Because of their efforts, our network has continued to run safely and our financial performance has been very strong. We have accomplished a lot over the last 4 months since I joined the company. This inventory (inaudible) railroads out in the field, visit to our customers, our investors and our many partners in the government, we finalized agreements with our labor unions. We reached a positive solution for the Gulf Coast with our colleagues at Amtrak. And we started to make updates to the nuts and bolts policies on attendance and make a big difference for our employees' quality of life.

首先，我要感謝所有 CSX 員工在 2022 年我們面臨各種挑戰與不確定性之際，仍為客戶盡心盡力、辛勤工作。因為他們的努力，我們的網路持續安全運行，財務表現也非常強勁。自我加入公司以來的過去 4 個月，我們完成了許多工作。這段期間（聽不清）我走訪了第一線的鐵路現場、拜訪客戶、投資人以及政府中的眾多合作夥伴；我們也與工會完成協議。我們與 Amtrak 的同仁就墨西哥灣沿岸議題達成正向解決方案。同時，我們也開始更新出勤等基礎政策，為員工的生活品質帶來重大改善。

I am particularly proud to report that our service metrics continue to show real improvement into the fourth quarter after starting a clear upward trend in the early fall. And we are very pleased this progress has continued throughout this month. As we anticipated, our hiring successes have allowed us to deliver better customer service that will allow us to capture more business with more volume over time.

我尤其自豪地報告，我們的服務指標在第四季持續呈現實質改善，並在初秋開始出現明確的上升趨勢。我們也非常高興這項進展在本月持續延續。如同我們所預期，我們在招募上的成功使我們能提供更好的客戶服務，並將隨時間推進，協助我們以更高運量取得更多業務。

Looking forward, we are focused on building on our momentum, leveraging our industry-leading operating model and growing this railroad. As we go through the details and answer your questions, I believe that you will get a great sense of the energy and optimism that we all share across the organization of the opportunities ahead for CSX.

展望未來，我們將專注於延續動能，運用我們業界領先的營運模式，並推動這條鐵路業務成長。在我們深入細節並回答各位問題的過程中，我相信各位將能清楚感受到，我們整個組織對 CSX 未來機會所共同擁有的活力與樂觀。

Now let's turn to our presentation to review the highlights for the fourth quarter and the full year. CSX generated over $3.7 billion in revenue, up 9% from the previous year on 1.5 million carloads in the quarter. Revenues benefited from higher fuel surcharges, strong core pricing and higher storage and other revenue. Operating income increased 7% year-over-year to $1.46 billion and our operating ratio was 60.9%.

現在讓我們回到簡報，回顧第四季與全年重點。CSX 本季營收超過 37 億美元，在本季 150 萬車皮裝載量（carloads）的基礎上，較去年成長 9%。營收受惠於較高的燃油附加費、強勁的核心定價，以及較高的倉儲與其他收入。營業利益年增 7% 至 14.6 億美元，營運比率（OR）為 60.9%。

As we've reminded you before, our quality carriers trucking business adds roughly 250 basis points to our OR. Earnings per share increased 17% to $0.49. Quickly looking at the full year 2022, our revenues of nearly $15 billion were up almost 20% compared to 2021. Our full year operating income of $6 billion increased 8%. Excluding the gains from the 2021 real estate transaction with the Commonwealth of Virginia, our operating income grew in line with our guidance for double-digit growth. Operating ratio was 59.5% for 2022. Finally, earnings per share increased 16% in 2022 to $1.95. Now let me turn it over to Kevin, Jamie and Sean for details.

如同我們先前提醒各位，我們的 Quality Carriers 卡車運輸業務約使 OR 增加 250 個基點。每股盈餘成長 17% 至 0.49 美元。快速看一下 2022 全年，我們營收接近 150 億美元，較 2021 年成長近 20%。全年營業利益 60 億美元，成長 8%。若排除 2021 年與維吉尼亞州政府（Commonwealth of Virginia）不動產交易的收益，我們的營業利益成長符合我們對雙位數成長的指引。2022 年營運比率為 59.5%。最後，2022 年每股盈餘成長 16% 至 1.95 美元。接下來我把時間交給 Kevin、Jamie 與 Sean 說明細節。

Thank you, Joe. Turning to Slide 7. Merchandise revenue increased 7% in the quarter, as a 9% increase in revenue per unit more than offset a 2% decline in volume. For the full year, merchandise revenue increased 9% on 1% lower volume. 2022 merchandise growth was driven by higher fuel surcharge combined with an increasing pricing environment as inflation accelerated through the year.

謝謝你，Joe。請看第 7 張投影片。商品（Merchandise）營收本季成長 7%，因每單位營收成長 9%，足以抵銷運量下滑 2%。全年來看，商品營收在運量下降 1% 的情況下成長 9%。2022 年商品業務的成長主要來自較高的燃油附加費，以及隨著通膨在全年加速而形成的更強定價環境。

Looking forward to 2023, we have significant network momentum as we began the year, and we expect to leverage industry-leading service into growth opportunities with our customers. This is reflected in our recent customer surveys where we have seen a significant improvement in overall customer satisfaction scores. We see opportunity for solid volume growth in merchandise for the year, led by continued strength in automotive, our growing export plastics business and share gains as customers respond to our improving service. This growth is likely to be partially offset by weaker housing-related and domestic chemical shipments as we start the year.

展望 2023 年，我們在年初即具備顯著的網路動能，並預期運用業界領先的服務，與客戶共同把握成長機會。這也反映在我們近期的客戶調查中，我們看到整體客戶滿意度分數顯著提升。我們認為今年商品業務有望實現穩健的運量成長，主要由汽車業務的持續強勁、我們成長中的出口塑膠業務，以及隨著服務改善客戶回流所帶來的市占提升所帶動。這些成長可能會在年初部分被與房市相關的貨運以及國內化學品出貨走弱所抵銷。

On Slide 8, you can see fourth quarter coal revenue increase 20% on 9% higher volume and a 9% increase in revenue per unit. Full year revenue increased 36% on 1% lower volume and a 38% increase in revenue per unit. In 2023, we expect export coal volumes to grow in both met and the thermal markets. So we do expect benchmark indexes to decline from the elevated averages of 2022. We're optimistic about the potential positive demand impact of China's reopening. While on the supply side, we have a new 4 million ton met coal mine coming online this year. We also anticipate volume opportunity as we lap 2022 issues, including reduced production at some CSX-served mines and capacity limitations at the Curtis Bay and Mobile export terminals. We expect domestic volumes to be low -- be driven by low thermal stockpiles that remain below historical averages.

在第 8 張投影片中，各位可以看到第四季煤炭營收成長 20%，其中運量成長 9%，每單位營收成長 9%。全年營收成長 36%，運量下降 1%，每單位營收成長 38%。在 2023 年，我們預期出口煤運量在冶金煤（met）與動力煤（thermal）市場皆將成長。因此，我們確實預期基準指數將自 2022 年偏高的平均水準回落。我們對中國重新開放可能帶來的正向需求影響抱持樂觀。供給方面，今年將有一座年產 400 萬噸的冶金煤新礦投產。我們也預期在我們跨越 2022 年的問題後將出現運量機會，包括部分 CSX 服務礦區的減產，以及 Curtis Bay 與 Mobile 出口碼頭的產能限制。我們預期國內運量將偏低——將由仍低於歷史平均的低動力煤庫存所驅動。

Healthy inventory levels will allow utilities to better respond to natural gas volatility and more readily dispatch capacity to reduce stress on the U.S. power grid. U.S. steel production, which drives domestic coal consumption to benefit from a recovery in the automotive industry as well as higher infrastructure demand.

健康的庫存水位將使公用事業能更好地因應天然氣價格波動，並更容易調度發電產能，以降低美國電網的壓力。美國鋼鐵產量（其帶動國內煤炭消耗）可望受惠於汽車產業復甦以及更高的基礎建設需求。

Now turning to Slide 9. Fourth quarter intermodal revenue increased 4% as a 9% increase in revenue per unit more than offset a 5% decline in volumes. For the full year, revenue increased 13% on flat volumes due to a 14% increase in revenue per unit. International intermodal markets continue to be negatively impacted by slowing activity, which looks likely to continue into the first half of 2023. Imports have declined and warehouses have seen elevated inventory levels.

接著看第 9 張投影片。第四季聯運（Intermodal）營收成長 4%，每單位營收成長 9%，足以抵銷運量下滑 5%。全年營收在運量持平的情況下成長 13%，主要因每單位營收成長 14%。國際聯運市場持續受到活動放緩的負面影響，且看起來可能延續至 2023 年上半年。進口量已下滑，倉庫庫存水位仍偏高。

To help counter this, we are pursuing several initiatives to bring new solutions to our customers to help them reach new and existing markets. With our domestic intermodal business, we see opportunities even as the trucking market has softened. The team is focused on accelerating truck-to-rail conversions and now with equipment constraints largely behind us, the team has more opportunity to pursue these initiatives. We are seeing existing customers and those that are new to intermodal adopt strategies to drive more of their transportation spend to rail. The team is doing a great job of identifying these opportunities and building the relationships to drive this growth.

為了因應這些情況，我們正推動多項計畫，為客戶提供新的解決方案，協助他們觸及新市場與既有市場。在國內聯運業務方面，即使卡車運輸市場已轉弱，我們仍看到機會。團隊專注於加速「卡轉鐵」（truck-to-rail）轉換；而隨著設備限制大致已成過去，團隊有更多空間推進這些計畫。我們看到既有客戶以及新加入聯運的客戶，正採取策略將更多運輸支出轉向鐵路。團隊在辨識這些機會並建立關係以推動成長方面做得非常出色。

Finally, moving to Slide 10. Let's discuss CSX's role in reducing our customers' emissions. As we pursue truck-to-rail conversions across the markets we serve, we are actively promoting rail's environmental advantages to our customers. We are increasingly looking for ways to reduce their own emissions. These are board level initiatives for our customers and the opportunity to choose rail over trucks provides real, measurable savings across the entire supply chain.

最後來到第 10 張投影片。我們來談談 CSX 在降低客戶排放方面所扮演的角色。當我們在所服務的市場推動「卡轉鐵」轉換時，我們也積極向客戶宣傳鐵路在環境方面的優勢。客戶也愈來愈在尋找降低自身排放的方法。這些是客戶董事會層級的倡議，而選擇鐵路而非卡車，能在整個供應鏈中帶來實際且可衡量的節省。

In 2022, CSX customers avoided emitting 10 million tons of carbon dioxide by choosing to ship with CSX versus truck. We continue providing an emissions advantages for our customers, we need to keep innovating. We are not only piloting new technologies that should provide fuel savings like 0 to 0, but we are exploring emerging technologies that can be implemented in the future and keep CSX at the forefront of delivering best-in-class efficiencies.

2022 年，CSX 客戶因選擇以 CSX 運輸而非卡車運輸，避免排放 1,000 萬噸二氧化碳。為了持續為客戶提供減排優勢，我們必須不斷創新。我們不僅在試點可帶來燃油節省的新技術，例如 0 到 0（聽不清），也在探索可於未來導入的新興技術，讓 CSX 持續站在提供同級最佳效率的最前線。

Providing visibility to our customers is also a priority. I'm excited about the additional insights we will provide to customers to help them identify and convert incremental freight to by utilizing our updated carbon calculator platform that will launch in the first quarter.

為客戶提供可視性同樣是我們的優先事項。我很期待我們將透過更新後的碳排計算器平台，在第一季上線後為客戶提供更多洞見，協助他們辨識並透過利用該平台將額外貨源轉換至鐵路運輸。

Lastly, we are proud of the recognition CSX has received for our sustainability efforts, with several of our awards listed on this slide. It is a priority for us to remain an industry leader in environmental stewardship, and we look forward to sharing more details on the several projects we have underway throughout the year.

最後，我們也為 CSX 在永續發展方面所獲得的肯定感到自豪，本頁列出了我們的多項獎項。維持環境管理的產業領導地位是我們的優先事項，我們也期待在今年持續分享我們正在推進的多個專案的更多細節。

Now let me turn it over to Jamie to discuss operations.

現在我把時間交給 Jamie，請他說明營運情況。

Thank you, Kevin, and good afternoon, everyone. Safety remains our top priority at CSX and has been the foundation for our service restoration. As shown on this slide, a personal injury frequency index was flat from the third quarter and unchanged for the full year. FRA train accident rate increased from the third quarter but improved versus the prior year. Most importantly, for the second year in a row, we ended the year without a life-changing event. These results were delivered with onboarding over 2,000 new conductors during the year and underscores the safety culture that runs deep within our One CSX workforce.

謝謝你，Kevin，各位下午好。安全仍然是 CSX 的首要優先事項，也是我們服務復原的基礎。如本投影片所示，人身傷害頻率指數較第三季持平，全年亦維持不變。FRA 列車事故率較第三季上升，但相較去年同期有所改善。最重要的是，連續第二年，我們在年底時未發生造成重大人生改變的事件。這些成果是在全年招募並到職超過 2,000 名新列車長的情況下達成，凸顯我們 One CSX 團隊深植人心的安全文化。

Now hires learned the importance of operating safely in the classroom, but the most impactful lessons occurred day in and day out on locomotives and in terminals working with more experienced employees. These daily interactions are reflected in our recent safety performance and emphasize the commitment to our operating safely at CSX. I would like to recognize the over 6,200 employees within CSX's engineering department, which set a record for the lowest number of train accidents in the department history. This is a true accomplishment, given the nature of their ballast-level work. In the year ahead, we will continue to instill the safety culture within our new hires, maintain that culture in our experienced employees and focus on the training and discipline we need to reduce human factor incidents.

新進人員在課堂上學習安全操作的重要性，但最具影響力的課程其實是在機車與場站中，日復一日與更有經驗的員工一起工作時所獲得。這些日常互動反映在我們近期的安全表現上，也強調 CSX 對安全營運的承諾。我想表揚 CSX 工務（engineering）部門超過 6,200 名員工，他們創下該部門史上最低列車事故數的紀錄。考量到他們在道碴層級作業的工作性質，這確實是一項了不起的成就。展望未來一年，我們將持續在新進人員中灌輸安全文化，在資深員工中維持該文化，並聚焦於我們所需的訓練與紀律，以降低人為因素事件。

Moving to the next slide. You can see the success that our entire team has had in driving meaningful service improvement with a clear trend emerging around the middle of the third quarter as staffing levels at many of our locations reached a key thresholds. Even with the temporary hit from the weather towards the end of the year, average velocity was up 11% sequentially in the fourth quarter -- was down 13%, and triplane compliance improved by several percentage points for both intermodal and carload.

接著看下一張投影片。你可以看到我們整個團隊在推動具實質意義的服務改善方面所取得的成功；在第三季中段左右，隨著多個據點的人力配置達到關鍵門檻，出現了明顯的趨勢。即使年底天候造成短暫衝擊，第四季平均速度仍較前一季提升 11%——was down 13%，而 intermodal 與 carload 的 triplane 遵循率皆提升了數個百分點。

This progress has not stopped as we crossed into 2023 with our service metrics continuing to trend towards pre-pandemic high water levels of late 2019 and early 2020. Our team is focused on improving network fluidity and delivering a consistent, reliable service that will encourage our customers to shift business onto our network and the data shows that we are well on our way.

這項進展在我們邁入 2023 年後仍未停止，我們的服務指標持續朝向疫情前、2019 年底與 2020 年初的高水準回升。我們的團隊專注於提升網路流動性，並提供一致且可靠的服務，以鼓勵客戶將業務轉移到我們的網路上；數據顯示我們正穩步朝目標前進。

Now turning to hiring. A robust training pipeline in over 350 conductor promotions over the fourth quarter allow the team to achieve our long-stated goal of 7,000 active T&E employees. Getting our resources to this level has driven the service momentum Joe discussed a few minutes ago, we will continue to support improved service into 2023. Going forward, we expect to stabilize active T&E headcount with targeted hiring continuing for key locations and to offset attrition. I will turn it over to Sean to discuss the financials.

接著談招募。強健的訓練管道以及第四季超過 350 位列車長晉升，使團隊達成我們長期宣示的目標：7,000 名在職的 T&E 員工。將資源提升至此水準，帶動了 Joe 幾分鐘前提到的服務動能，我們也將持續支援 2023 年的服務改善。展望未來，我們預期將使在職 T&E 人數趨於穩定，並針對關鍵據點持續進行目標式招募，以因應人員流失。接下來我把時間交給 Sean，請他說明財務表現。

Thank you, Jamie, and good afternoon. Looking at fourth quarter financial results, revenue increased 9% and operating income increased 7% to $1.5 billion as top line gain outpaced several expense headwinds and that I will discuss in more detail on the next slide.

謝謝你，Jamie，各位下午好。就第四季財務結果而言，營收成長 9%，營業利益成長 7% 至 15 億美元；營收增幅超過了數項費用逆風，相關細節我會在下一張投影片進一步說明。

Interest and other expense was $6 million favorable compared to the prior year and income tax expense increased by $15 million. The effective tax rate in the quarter was 21.9% as a result of favorable adjustments to deferred state taxes. Our expected tax rate going forward continues to be 24.5%. Fourth quarter net earnings increased 9% to $1 billion, while EPS grew 17%. Full year 2022 results were highlighted by top line growth of 19%. Operating income was up 8%, which includes a 4-point impact from the Virginia real estate transaction, resulting in 12% growth when adjusting for these gains.

利息及其他費用較去年同期有利 600 萬美元，而所得稅費用增加 1,500 萬美元。本季有效稅率為 21.9%，主要因遞延州稅的有利調整所致。我們對未來的預期稅率仍為 24.5%。第四季淨利成長 9% 至 10 億美元，而每股盈餘（EPS）成長 17%。2022 全年結果的亮點是營收成長 19%。營業利益成長 8%，其中包含維吉尼亞不動產交易帶來的 4 個百分點影響；若調整該項收益，營業利益成長為 12%。

Let's now turn to the next slide and take a closer look at fourth quarter expense. Total fourth quarter expense increased $210 million compared to the prior year, driven primarily by higher fuel costs and inflation. Fuel expense was the most significant driver of $129 million due to higher prices. Labor and fringe expense increased $23 million as the impacts of additional headcount and wage inflation were partially offset by lower incentive compensation. PS&O increased $54 million, primarily due to higher operating support and terminal costs, which will remain somewhat elevated near term as operations continue to improve.

接著看下一張投影片，更深入檢視第四季費用。第四季總費用較去年同期增加 2.10 億美元，主要由較高的燃料成本與通膨所驅動。燃料費用是最顯著的因素，因價格上升而增加 1.29 億美元。人事與附加福利費用增加 2,300 萬美元，新增人力與薪資通膨的影響，部分被較低的獎酬支出所抵銷。PS&O 增加 5,400 萬美元，主要因營運支援與場站成本上升；隨著營運持續改善，短期內這些成本仍將維持在相對偏高水準。

PS&O inflation is also running around 5% and the quarter included about $10 million of expense from obsolete inventory and technology write-offs. Depreciation increased by $33 million in the quarter, which includes an ongoing quarterly impact of about $20 million related to the completion of a periodic equipment study. As a result of this study and a higher net asset base, full year depreciation expense will be up approximately $100 million in 2023. Equipment and rents was relatively flat versus the prior year and gains on property dispositions increased $31 million.

PS&O 的通膨也約在 5% 左右，本季並包含約 1,000 萬美元的費用，來自過時庫存與科技資產沖銷。折舊在本季增加 3,300 萬美元，其中包含因完成定期設備研究而帶來的約 2,000 萬美元持續性季度影響。由於該研究以及較高的淨資產基礎，2023 年全年折舊費用將增加約 1 億美元。設備與租金費用相較去年同期大致持平，而處分不動產的收益增加 3,100 萬美元。

While we are always looking for opportunities to leverage excess real estate, we'll likely have a few small gains. We aren't expecting any significant sales activity in 2023 at this point. Overall, congestion-related expenses were slightly above $30 million in the fourth quarter, and part of that cost was incurred during winter storms at the end of the period. Despite elevated inflation and increased headcount, we expect to deliver strong cost efficiency throughout 2023, as better fluidity reduces terminal costs, overtime pay and other expenses.

雖然我們一向在尋找運用多餘不動產的機會，但可能只會有一些小額收益。就目前而言，我們不預期 2023 年會有任何重大出售活動。整體而言，第四季與壅塞相關的費用略高於 3,000 萬美元，其中部分成本是在期末冬季風暴期間發生。儘管通膨偏高且人力增加，我們仍預期在 2023 年能交出強勁的成本效率，因為更佳的流動性將降低場站成本、加班費及其他費用。

Now turning to cash flow on Slide 18. Full year free cash flow of $3.7 billion decreased $100 million but was approximately $100 million above prior year results adjusting for the Virginia transaction. Operating cash flow increased over $500 million on higher earnings, more than offsetting approximately $350 million of additional capital spend from our continued focus on both investing for the long-term reliability of our network, as well as identifying and executing high-return strategic projects. After fully funding capital needs, we returned nearly $5.6 billion to shareholders in 2022, including over $4.7 billion of share repurchases and $850 million in dividends.

接著看第 18 張投影片的現金流。全年自由現金流為 37 億美元，減少 1 億美元；但若就維吉尼亞交易進行調整，則約較去年同期增加 1 億美元。營運現金流因獲利提升而增加逾 5 億美元，足以抵銷約 3.5 億美元的額外資本支出；這些支出反映我們持續聚焦於長期網路可靠性的投資，以及辨識並執行高報酬的策略性專案。在充分支應資本需求後，我們於 2022 年回饋股東近 56 億美元，其中包含超過 47 億美元的庫藏股買回與 8.5 億美元的股利。

We exited the year with a strong balance sheet and liquidity position, including $2.1 billion of cash and short-term investments. Looking forward, we remain committed to a balanced and opportunistic approach to returning excess cash to shareholders. With that, let me turn it back to Joe for his closing remarks.

我們在年底時擁有強健的資產負債表與流動性部位，包括 21 億美元的現金與短期投資。展望未來，我們仍致力於以均衡且具彈性的方式，將多餘現金回饋股東。接下來我把時間交回 Joe，請他做結語。

Thank you, Sean. Before we discuss our outlook, I want to briefly touch on a couple of key ideas that we think about the ONE CSX concept and how it fits together with the fundamentals of scale railroading at the core of this company. This past year has seen a lot of commentary from many different parties about what scale railroading is and how it's supposed to work. For us, it really is quite simple operating philosophy based on the 5 principles that you see across the top of Slide 20.

謝謝你，Sean。在我們討論展望之前，我想先簡要談談幾個關鍵想法：我們如何看待 ONE CSX 的概念，以及它如何與本公司核心的規模化鐵路營運（scale railroading）基本原則相互契合。過去一年，許多不同的利害關係人對於什麼是規模化鐵路營運、以及它應該如何運作，提出了大量評論。對我們而言，其實很簡單：這是一套以你在第 20 張投影片上方看到的 5 項原則為基礎的營運哲學。

The key, just as it is with the railroad network, is to keep everything in balance, optimize your assets and ensure you show respect for your employees; be disciplined in cost control; and maintain your client to good service. If you can't service your customers well and reliably, all the cost control in the world won't deliver a healthy growing business.

關鍵在於——就像鐵路網路一樣——讓一切保持平衡、最佳化資產配置，並確保尊重員工；在成本控管上保持紀律；並以良好服務維繫客戶。如果你無法良好且可靠地服務客戶，那麼再多的成本控管也無法帶來健康成長的業務。

CSX has been tremendously successful over the last several years as the company has undergone its transformation. In my view, we've done particularly well across the first 3 of these scale railroading principles. The opportunity for us now is to focus on getting to even better balance with those last 2. We will redouble our efforts in serving our customers and ensuring that our employees, the people who are delivering that service to our customers, feel valued, appreciated and included. To address this and bring out the best of this operating model can deliver, we are building a One CSX culture that prioritizes our relationships and leverages our common goals.

過去幾年，CSX 在公司轉型過程中取得了極大的成功。以我的觀點，我們在這些規模化鐵路營運原則中的前 3 項表現尤其出色。現在我們的機會在於，聚焦於後 2 項，達到更好的平衡。我們將加倍努力服務客戶，並確保我們的員工——也就是為客戶提供服務的人——感到被重視、被肯定並被納入其中。為了回應這點並發揮此營運模式所能帶來的最佳成果，我們正在建立一種 One CSX 文化，優先重視彼此關係，並善用我們共同的目標。

Whether you are an employee, a customer or a shareholder, you want a strong and thriving CSX. A healthy culture leverages that alignment to do better together. Under each heading, you will see a couple of the ways we have brought these principles to life over the last year. At the bottom, we give examples of what we aim to do. As an example, for customer service, we have added the T&E resources we have needed to increase capacity, and we have built resilient momentum as our service measures have improved.

無論你是員工、客戶或股東，你都希望 CSX 強健且蓬勃發展。健康的文化能運用這種一致性，讓大家一起做得更好。在每個主題之下，你會看到我們在過去一年中將這些原則落實的幾種方式。在底部，我們提供了我們希望達成的例子。以客戶服務為例，我們已增補所需的 T&E 資源以提升運能，並隨著服務衡量指標改善而建立起具韌性的動能。

Now looking forward, it is critical that we ensure that our service metrics reflect our customer experience and that we are measuring and evaluating ourselves in the right way. We also know that we have to improve the way that we interface with our customers and make it easier to do business with us if we are going to win market share from trucks. Every week, we get together as a leadership team. We are challenging ourselves to find new ways to address these issues and take advantage of the great energy that we are creating here at CSX.

展望未來，關鍵在於確保我們的服務指標能反映客戶體驗，並且我們以正確的方式衡量與評估自己。我們也知道，若要從卡車運輸手中贏得市占率，就必須改善我們與客戶互動的方式，讓與我們做生意更容易。每週我們都會以領導團隊的形式聚在一起，挑戰自己找出新的方法來解決這些問題，並善用我們在 CSX 這裡所創造的強大動能。

We have tremendous talent here. And with these principles at our road map, we have a clear, collective goal. Now let's conclude with a review of our outlook for '23 as shown on Slide 21. First, as our service levels keep improving, we expect to achieve overall volume growth for the year, which will outpace real GDP growth, driven largely by strong contributions from merchandise and coal, as Kevin discussed. That said, we do believe that international intermodal volume is likely to be soft, particularly over the first half of the year, as imports have slowed and retailer inventory levels have recovered.

我們擁有非常優秀的人才。以這些原則作為我們的路線圖，我們有一個清晰且共同的目標。現在讓我們以第 21 頁投影片所示，回顧我們對 2023 年的展望並作結。首先，隨著我們的服務水準持續改善，我們預期全年將實現整體運量成長，且將超越實質 GDP 成長，主要由商品貨運與煤炭的強勁貢獻所帶動，如 Kevin 所討論。不過，我們確實認為國際聯運（intermodal）運量可能偏弱，特別是在上半年，因為進口已放緩且零售商庫存水位已回復。

Next, the pricing environment remains favorable for us. Our customers have experienced substantial inflation and understand that we face our own cost pressures, including the effects of the recent labor agreements. This transparency has helped us as we renew our pricing agreements, which will support our top line performance. That said, there are a couple of important things to note for 2023: first, we do expect revenues from intermodal storage to decline through the year as supply chain conditions improved. We currently believe it is reasonable to expect we will see a reduction of approximately $300 million in intermodal storage revenue compared to last year, which would imply a quarterly average close to levels seen in early 2021. Second, international met coal benchmarks have recovered from their lows of last fall, but remained volatile. High quality Australia met coal averaged roughly $355 in 2022 and sits at $315 today. It is likely at the average this year will be lower year-over-year, which will impact our coal RPU and our total revenue. Now regarding profitability, we will face cost better in 2023, but we know that we can get better operationally. Where it is possible and where it makes sense, we will make every effort to realize efficiency gains and reduce some of the extra costs that we have been carrying demand through the congestion and resource constraints of that post pandemic period.

接著，定價環境對我們仍然有利。我們的客戶已經歷顯著通膨，也理解我們同樣面臨成本壓力，包括近期勞資協議的影響。這種透明度在我們續約定價協議時提供了助益，將支撐我們的營收表現。不過，針對 2023 年有幾點重要事項需要注意：第一，隨著供應鏈狀況改善，我們預期聯運倉儲（intermodal storage）收入將在全年走低。我們目前認為，合理的預期是相較去年聯運倉儲收入約減少 3 億美元，這意味著單季平均將接近 2021 年初的水準。第二，國際冶金煤（met coal）基準價格已自去年秋季低點回升，但仍然波動。2022 年澳洲高品質冶金煤平均約 355 美元，而目前為 315 美元。今年的平均價格很可能較去年下滑，這將影響我們煤炭的每單位收入（RPU）以及總營收。至於獲利能力方面，2023 年我們將面臨成本逆風，但我們知道在營運上仍可做得更好。在可行且合理之處，我們將盡一切努力實現效率提升，並降低我們在疫情後期間因壅塞與資源限制、為了因應需求而承擔的一些額外成本。

In the end, our margin performance will largely depend on our success in driving more volume through our network and realizing potential operating leverage. Finally, we estimate that our capital expenditures will increase to approximately $2.3 billion, driven by a full year of spending for PNM, additional equipment for quality carriers structure real conversion opportunities, investing in strategic high-return growth projects and the effects of inflation.

最終，我們的利潤率表現將在很大程度上取決於我們能否成功推動更多運量通過我們的網路，並實現潛在的營運槓桿。最後，我們估計資本支出將增加至約 23 億美元，主要由 PNM 全年支出、為提升服務品質而增加的設備、結構性實質轉換機會、投資於具策略性且高報酬的成長專案，以及通膨影響所驅動。

Now before we close, I want to emphasize what an exciting time it is for all of us to be a part of the ONE CSX team. We have a common goal to properly grow this railroad and you are seeing the real progress that we are making towards that goal as we put people and resources into place. I am personally very optimistic about the opportunities ahead, and I look forward to updating you on the achievements throughout the year.

在結束之前，我想強調，能成為 ONE CSX 團隊的一員，對我們所有人而言是多麼令人振奮的時刻。我們有共同目標，要以正確的方式推動這條鐵路成長；而當我們把人員與資源配置到位時，你們也看到了我們朝這個目標所取得的實質進展。我個人對未來的機會非常樂觀，也期待在今年持續向各位更新我們的各項成果。

Thank you. And with that, we will now take your questions.

謝謝。接下來我們將開始回答各位的提問。

(Operator Instructions) With that, our first question comes from the line of Amit Mehrotra with Deutsche Bank.

（接線員指示）接下來，我們的第一個問題來自德意志銀行（Deutsche Bank）的 Amit Mehrotra。

I wanted to ask about yields kind of on a consolidated basis for this year. Obviously, the supplemental revenue and fuel will be somewhat of a headwind. I guess, standing here today, would it be fair to say kind of yield will be flattish on a net basis? And Sean, I guess if revenue is kind of flat, can you just remind us of kind of the cost that are in the system that you think can be reversed to maybe offset some of the cost inflation?

我想詢問今年在合併口徑下的收益率（yields）情況。顯然，補充性收入（supplemental revenue）以及燃油將會帶來一些逆風。我想問的是，以今天的情況來看，是否可以說淨額口徑下的收益率大致持平？另外 Sean，如果營收大致持平，你能否提醒我們，系統中有哪些成本你認為可以回轉，從而抵消部分成本通膨？

Amit, this is Sean. Yes. So in terms of the yields, I think Joe sort of laid out our expectation on the coal side, perhaps a little bit lower just looking at the comparison versus some of the record levels last year, fuel potentially a little bit of a headwind on a yield basis as well. We'll have a little bit of positive mix, at least in the first half here with the pressures on intermodal, specifically relative to the growth that we expect in merchandising coal. So that's the yield story. And then in terms of the costs, I think there's a number of different categories.

Amit，我是 Sean。是的。就收益率而言，我想 Joe 已經大致說明了我們對煤炭端的預期；相較去年一些創紀錄水準，可能會略低一些。燃油在收益率層面也可能帶來一些逆風。我們在組合上會有一些正面因素，至少在上半年，因為聯運承壓，尤其相對於我們預期商品貨運與煤炭的成長而言。因此這就是收益率的情況。至於成本方面，我認為有幾個不同的類別。

Certainly, with the intermodal terminals becoming more fluid as some of that traffic moves its way out of the system and start spinning again. We should see some costs come down and the terminals are in very good shape right now. We should see reduction in freight car rents as our cycle times improve and they have already, things like overtime and ancillary costs related to the crews getting hung up last year with delays in service and then locomotive maintenance as we're able to spend the assets faster here. So those are a few categories where I would say we ought to expect some improvement this year.

當然，隨著部分貨流逐步移出系統並開始再次周轉，聯運場站（intermodal terminals）會變得更順暢。我們應該會看到一些成本下降，而且目前場站狀況非常好。隨著我們的週轉時間改善（而且已經改善），我們應該會看到貨車租金下降；還有像加班費，以及去年因服務延誤導致乘務組被卡住所產生的相關附帶成本；以及機車維修，因為我們能讓資產更快周轉。以上是幾個我認為今年應該可以期待改善的類別。

Sean, any numbers around that, though? I mean, in terms of -- I know you've talked about $40 million a quarter, but any sort of quantification around some of those efficiencies -- inefficiencies?

Sean，不過這方面有沒有一些數字？我的意思是——我知道你談過每季 4,000 萬美元，但對於那些效率提升——或效率不彰——有沒有任何量化？

No specific number, no. I mean, we're going to have inflation headwinds, right? I think probably in the 4% to 5% range. And our goal is going to be to offset as much of that as we can, both through taking out some of those extra costs that we carried last year as well as continuing to find efficiency gains across the business.

沒有具體數字，沒有。我的意思是，我們會面臨通膨逆風，對吧？我想大概在 4% 到 5% 的區間。我們的目標是盡可能抵消這些影響，一方面透過移除去年承擔的一些額外成本，另一方面也持續在整個業務中尋找效率提升。

We'll take our next question from Justin Long with Stephens.

接下來我們將接聽 Stephens 的 Justin Long 的提問。

There are a lot of moving pieces this year in the outlook. So I was just curious if you could give us any directional color on the year-over-year change you're anticipating for both revenue and operating income? And maybe you could comment on what that trend line could look like throughout the year if things are going to get better or worse? Would just love some additional thoughts.

今年展望裡有很多變動因素。所以我想請教，你們是否能提供一些方向性的說明，關於你們預期營收與營業利益的年對年變化？另外也許你們可以評論一下，若情況會變好或變差，這條趨勢線在全年可能會是什麼樣子？希望能聽到更多想法。

Yes, Justin, we're not going to get specific in terms of the guidance itself. When you look at first half, second half, the volume comps on coal are a little bit tougher in the second half than in the first half. In terms of intermodal, Kevin talked a little bit about some of the headwinds we're seeing on the international side here in the first half of the year. Those are really sort of the big drivers on the volume side.

是的，Justin，我們不會在指引本身提供具體數字。若看上半年、下半年，煤炭的運量比較基期在下半年比上半年更具挑戰。至於聯運，Kevin 稍早談到我們在今年上半年於國際端看到的一些逆風。這些基本上是運量面最主要的驅動因素。

And then in terms of all the revenue, that coming down about $300 million for the year, obviously, second half of 2022 was higher than first half of 2022. So we'll be facing sort of a bigger headwind there. And in terms of overall operating income, I think we've laid out some of the factors, right? I think we feel great about our ability to recapture some of the share that we missed in 2022, given where the service product is, given that we've got the headcount that we need and we've got the assets that we need, which is why we're going to grow above GDP. We're going to see gains in merchandise and in coal.

再來就整體營收而言，全年將下滑約 3 億美元；而且很明顯，2022 年下半年高於 2022 年上半年，所以我們在那部分將面臨更大的逆風。至於整體營業利益，我想我們已經列出一些因素，對吧？我們對於在 2022 年錯失的市占率能夠收復的能力感到非常有信心，考量到目前的服務產品狀況、我們已具備所需的人力編制，以及我們也擁有所需的資產，這也是為什麼我們將成長高於 GDP。我們將在商品貨運與煤炭看到增長。

We've got a strong price environment. We've got the cost opportunities that I've talked about. And on the flip side of that, we have a few headwinds between the supplemental revenue, the other revenue piece, higher depreciation and probably lower real estate gains. So those are the factors. But that being said, I think the fact that we are expecting growth. And as we add that growth to the system, we're going to add that strong incremental margins.

我們有強勁的定價環境，也有我剛才談到的成本機會。另一方面，我們也有一些逆風，包括補充性收入、其他收入項目、較高的折舊，以及可能較低的不動產處分收益。這些就是相關因素。不過即便如此，我認為我們預期成長這件事本身很重要；而當我們把這些成長加到系統中時，我們將帶來強勁的增量利潤率。

We'll take our next question from Brandon Oglenski from Barclays.

接下來我們將接聽 Barclays 的 Brandon Oglenski 的提問。

So I guess maybe piggybacking off that answer there. Joe, I know you've only been there a couple of quarters now, but we've heard for a year plus that the real limitation here was headcount, resources and more importantly, service levels that you're delivering. I mean we're seeing that come through the data, I think, pretty strongly in the fourth quarter and as we start out here in January. So can you talk to how you're going to convert that. And Kevin and Jamie, maybe how closely are your teams working together to ensure that you're growing in the right places because I think in the past, we've seen growth that can come in the wrong places and lead to even more op challenges for the other carriers.

那我想可能延續你剛才的回答。Joe，我知道你到任才幾個季度，但我們一年多來一直聽到，真正的限制在於人力、資源，更重要的是你們所交付的服務水準。我想我們在第四季以及今年一月開始時，從數據上看到這點相當明顯。所以你能談談你們要如何把這些轉化（convert）成成果嗎？另外 Kevin 和 Jamie，你們的團隊合作得有多緊密，以確保你們在正確的地方成長？因為我認為過去我們看過一些成長可能出現在不對的地方，反而導致其他承運商面臨更多營運挑戰。

This is Joe. First off, thanks for recognizing the pretty significant service improvements and operating performance that we're seeing continuing into January. Our team works great together. So for what it's worth, clearly, Jamie and Kevin, their offices are next to each other, and they're talking all day long. I'll let them talk more about that. But you referenced the fact that there's been some conversation for quite some time that our challenges were manpower levels and then how that affected the fluidity of the network, we're seeing, as you just referenced, the performance that comes from game of manpower levels where we want them to be and running this network the way it was run prior to the pandemic, which is a very strong operating team.

我是 Joe。首先，感謝你注意到我們看到的相當顯著的服務改善與營運表現，且這些改善延續到了 1 月。我們的團隊合作得非常好。所以不管怎麼說，很明顯地，Jamie 和 Kevin 的辦公室就在隔壁，他們整天都在交流。我會讓他們再多談談這點。不過你提到，長期以來一直有些討論認為我們的挑戰在於人力水準，以及這如何影響網路的流暢度；正如你剛才所提到的，我們正在看到當人力水準回到我們希望的狀態、並以疫情前的方式來運行這個網路時所帶來的表現，而那是一支非常強的營運團隊。

So the conversion opportunity is to demonstrate some repeatability and predictability around our performance and to show our customers that we now only have -- we have the capacity in place and we have the performance to demonstrate that you should come back to us. And I'm feeling optimistic about that and the conversations we're having with customers, they're recognizing the improvements that we've shown for the last several months. And they're also confident in our ability to continue that, especially now that we have the manpower levels where we want them to be.

因此，轉化（conversion）的機會在於展現我們績效的可重複性與可預測性，並向客戶證明：我們現在不僅已具備產能，也有表現可以證明你們應該回到我們這裡。我對此感到樂觀，從我們與客戶的對話也能看出來——他們認可我們過去幾個月所展現的改善；而且他們也對我們持續維持的能力有信心，特別是現在我們的人力水準已達到我們希望的狀態。

So if you look at it, we're still not meeting all the demand out there for carloads at our business -- for our business. And as we go through the year, we'll look for every opportunity to do that. I'll let Kevin talk more about some of the opportunities in the markets themselves. And then I'll let Jamie talk about the operations.

所以如果你這樣看，我們在我們的業務——就我們的業務而言——仍然沒有滿足市場上所有對車皮裝載量（carloads）的需求。隨著今年推進，我們會尋找每一個機會去做到這點。我會讓 Kevin 多談談市場本身的一些機會，然後我也會讓 Jamie 談談營運。

Yes. Brandon, you did mention obviously, the remarkable improvement in our service that we've seen, and it's a real change, and there's a lot of excitement around this organization about it and what we can do going forward. Joe has brought both Jamie and I and his teams together to talk about some of the key markets. And there's been a lot of interesting ideas that have come out of that where we can really leverage what we can do service-wise and what we can do creatively to create those opportunities for us. And those things are the fun part of what we do every day, and we're doing a lot less of that and a lot less of customer service and a lot more coming up with new ideas and having those discussions with our customers about growing.

是的。Brandon，你確實提到我們服務出現了顯著改善，這是一個真正的轉變，整個組織對此以及我們未來能做的事都非常振奮。Joe 把 Jamie、我以及各自團隊聚在一起，討論一些關鍵市場。從中產生了很多有意思的想法：我們可以真正運用我們在服務上的能力，以及我們能以更具創意的方式來創造機會。這些事情是我們每天工作中最有趣的部分；而我們現在做這些事情的時間多了很多——花在處理客訴與救火式客戶服務的時間少了很多——更多是在提出新點子，並與客戶討論如何成長。

I'll tell you, I've had a chance to meet with a lot of customers over the last month or 2. And every time, probably 90% of those conversations, we walk out with a lot more opportunities to pursue. Sometimes it means that we have to think differently. We have to introduce customers to what the intermodal product is or what we're capable of. And what we're capable of today is much different, obviously, than what we were capable of a year ago. And so the team is getting together the whole sales and marketing organization. Jamie is going to spend time with them. I was going to spend time with them next week and it's off to the races. It's up to us to find those opportunities and really pursue them. But I'll hand it over to Jamie to talk about the upside.

我跟你說，過去 1 到 2 個月我有機會拜訪很多客戶。每一次，大概 90% 的對話，我們最後都帶著更多可以追求的機會離開。有時候這代表我們必須用不同的方式思考。我們得向客戶介紹什麼是聯運（intermodal）產品，或我們具備哪些能力。而我們今天的能力，顯然與一年前非常不同。因此整個銷售與行銷組織正在集結；Jamie 會花時間和他們在一起；我下週也會和他們一起投入，然後就全速前進了。接下來就看我們能否找到那些機會並真正去追求。但我先把時間交給 Jamie 來談談上行空間。

I think really, the only thing I can add to that is there's a lot of capacity out there. So what Kevin and I talk about is where is that capacity? What can we do with that capacity? And how do we get out there and sell it. My team is out in the field, ensuring that they are talking with customers more than they ever have because they have time to do that.

我想我能補充的其實只有一點：外面有很多產能。所以 Kevin 和我討論的是：那些產能在哪裡？我們能用那些產能做什麼？以及我們要如何出去把它賣出去。我的團隊在第一線，確保他們與客戶的對話比以往任何時候都更多，因為他們現在有時間這麼做。

Previously, we were trying to find a crew to run a train here or there or wherever else. Now they have the time to sit back and deal with any of those customer demands that might be out there that helps Kevin and his team grow. Some of those discussions we have are what does the customer really looking for? Is it the right metrics that we're looking at that the customers are looking for and that first mile, last mile improvement that the team has been able to put together is really record-breaking for us. If I look back at the last 6 years, we haven't -- '22, unfortunately, wasn't the best year for us, but exiting '22 with our customer service and in '23 are some of the world record numbers we just haven't seen. So our job is to keep producing those numbers and making sure Kevin and the team has what they need to get out there and sell and commit to the customers that what you see out there is what you're going to continue to see. So some great collaboration between our 2 groups.

以前，我們忙著到處找人手來跑這班或那班列車，或其他地方的列車。現在他們有時間坐下來處理市場上可能存在的任何客戶需求，這也能幫助 Kevin 和他的團隊成長。我們的一些討論是：客戶真正要的是什麼？我們看的指標是否是客戶也在看的正確指標？而團隊所打造的「第一哩、最後一哩」改善，對我們來說真的是破紀錄。如果我回看過去 6 年，我們沒有——很遺憾地，2022 年對我們來說不是最好的一年，但在 2022 年底我們的客戶服務表現，以及 2023 年的表現，都是一些我們從未見過的世界級紀錄數字。所以我們的工作就是持續產出這些數字，並確保 Kevin 和團隊擁有所需的一切，能出去銷售並向客戶承諾：你現在看到的表現，就是你接下來會持續看到的表現。所以我們兩個團隊之間有很好的協作。

We'll take our next question from Chris Wetherbee with Citigroup.

我們的下一個問題來自 Citigroup 的 Chris Wetherbee。

So I guess thinking about the outlook and the optimism around growing merchandise and coal and good incremental margins with that coming on sort of compared your contrasted against some of these what are perceived to be very high-margin sort of revenue headwinds that you have, whether it be the accessorials coming down $300 million or the coal -- export coal yields coming down. When you think about those 2 relative to each other and the potential for cost out, I guess, any help in terms of how to think about operating ratio or the outcome of that whether it be maybe first half versus second half or across the whole year would be helpful. Just I think that perception of high margin on those headwind pieces is something that we're struggling with a little bit.

我想從展望來看，大家對於雜貨（merchandise）與煤炭成長、以及由此帶來良好的增量利潤率感到樂觀；但相對地，你們也面臨一些被認為是高毛利的營收逆風，例如附加費（accessorials）下滑 3 億美元，或煤炭——出口煤炭的單位收益（yields）下降。當你把這兩者相互比較，再加上潛在的成本削減時，我想請你們協助我們理解：應該如何看待營運比率（OR）或其結果——例如上半年對下半年，或整年度的走勢。只是市場對於那些逆風項目具有高毛利的認知，讓我們有點難以消化。

Yes, Chris. So on the asset story, obviously, the coal yields -- there's no cost associated with that on the accessorials. There are costs associated with congestion in the terminals as well as needing to rent out space at container yards to move those containers around. So that's part of the, call it, $150 million or so of additional costs that we carried over the course of this year. So some of that will adjust down.

是的，Chris。就資產（asset）這一塊來說，顯然煤炭單位收益（yields）——那部分沒有對應的成本。而附加費（accessorials）方面，則有成本，主要與場站（terminals）的壅塞有關，以及我們需要在貨櫃堆場租用空間來移動這些貨櫃。因此，這是我們今年整體承擔的大約 1.5 億美元左右額外成本的一部分。所以其中一些會往下調整。

And then as we grow the business, our confidence is in the fact that we can grow it at very strong incrementals. And so you put those together, and I think the question around what happens to the OR really depends on how much growth can we convert. We talked last year about the fact that there was demand out there that we weren't able to meet because we didn't have the crews that we needed in the right places. We've got those crews now. So there's a real opportunity in front of us.

然後，隨著我們擴大業務，我們的信心在於：我們可以用非常強的增量（incrementals）來實現成長。把這些放在一起，我認為關於 OR 會怎麼走，真的取決於我們能把多少成長轉化出來。去年我們談到，市場上有需求，但我們無法滿足，因為我們在正確的地點缺少所需的乘務組（crews）。我們現在已經有了這些乘務組。因此，我們面前有一個真正的機會。

We'll take our next question from Scott Group with Wolfe Research.

我們的下一個問題來自 Wolfe Research 的 Scott Group。

So maybe I'll try it this way. How much volume growth do you think you need to be able to grow earnings this year? And then -- it sounds like there's going to be some OR pressure this year. You've got some headwinds. I think that's understood. I guess, Joe, I guess I want to understand what's your commitment to longer-term OR improvement kind of beyond 2023, just thinking out the next several years.

那我換個方式問。你們認為今年需要多少運量成長，才能讓盈餘成長？另外——聽起來今年 OR 會有一些壓力。你們有一些逆風，我想這點大家都理解。我想問的是，Joe，你對於 2023 年之後、更長期的 OR 改善承諾是什麼？就接下來幾年來看。

Yes, Scott, on your question about how much growth, I don't think we're in a position to answer that one right now that you kind of run it through the model, but I think we've given you enough of the factors. And I think the fact that we sort of pointed to coal and merchandise as areas where we think we can sort of meaningfully outperform whatever the economic indicators that are out there is a reflection of the fact that we feel good about where we are from a capacity and service standpoint and the ability to sell into that market, but we're not going to give you a specific number there.

是的，Scott，關於你問需要多少成長，我認為我們目前還不適合直接回答，因為你得把它放進模型裡跑一遍；但我想我們已經提供了足夠的因素。而且我們之所以指出煤炭與雜貨（merchandise）是我們認為能夠相對於現有經濟指標顯著超越的領域，是因為我們對自身在產能與服務面的狀態、以及把產品賣進市場的能力感到樂觀，但我們不會在這裡給你一個具體數字。

This is Joe. On the OR question, Scott, I think there's a couple of points here. I'm very confident that our team will continue to deliver on the denominator side, operating improvements and continue to show strong operating results. On the numerator side of the equation, you're right in the sense that there have been -- there were some things that were strong tailwinds last year, the fuel surcharge, intermodal storage, the coal price, et cetera, and we'll see how much of that repeats in 2023. But that certainly helped the numerator side of OR last year and maybe some of those things won't be quite as strong in 2023.

我是 Joe。關於 OR 的問題，Scott，我認為這裡有幾點。我非常有信心，我們的團隊會持續在分母端交付——也就是營運改善，並持續展現強勁的營運成果。在分子端，你說得對：去年有一些很強的順風，例如燃油附加費（fuel surcharge）、聯運倉儲（intermodal storage）、煤價等等；而 2023 年這些因素能重複多少，我們還要再看。但這些確實在去年幫助了 OR 的分子端，而其中一些在 2023 年可能不會那麼強。

But having said that, on the numerator side, the volume growth opportunity that we can now go after with the confidence that we have in our operating model and our performance and knowing that for our customers who are feeling cost pressures and feeling inflation pressures and potentially even feeling effects of a slowing economy are going to be looking for cost reduction opportunities. And so we feel very, very strongly that this year and beyond, continue to demonstrate the capacity that we have in our performance, the growth opportunity will be there for us as we earn the right to do that and get that business. And our customers will be wanting to do more business with us. In addition, of course, we have the environmental advantage of ESGs and emissions when it comes to rail.

但話雖如此，在分子端，我們現在可以憑藉對自身營運模式與績效的信心，去把握可追求的運量成長機會；同時也知道，對於正感受到成本壓力、通膨壓力，甚至可能感受到經濟放緩影響的客戶而言，他們會尋找降低成本的機會。因此，我們非常、非常堅信，今年以及往後，只要持續展現我們在績效上的能力，當我們贏得去做這件事並取得業務的資格時，成長機會就會存在。而我們的客戶也會希望與我們做更多生意。此外，當談到鐵路運輸時，我們當然也具備ESG與排放方面的環境優勢。

So all that being said is we're not going to put a target out there for OR. We're very proud of our performance. I mean last year, with quality carriers, we still had an operating ratio for the year under 60, so we know what it's like to -- and that was not at our optimum performance level as we all admit. So we believe there is a strong performance inside of this company that will continue to be delivered. The uncertainty is around some of those revenue pieces in this year and beyond.

所以綜合以上，我們不會對外提出OR（營運比率）的目標。我們對自身表現非常自豪。我的意思是，去年即使在優質承運商的環境下，我們全年營運比率仍低於60，因此我們知道要——而且我們也都承認，那並非我們的最佳績效水準。因此，我們相信公司內部仍有強勁的績效，並將持續交付。至於不確定性，則在於今年及往後某些營收構成項目。

So our challenge is to deliver real growth in the business, which does deliver strong incremental margins and continue to control our costs, utilize our assets well. And so that should lead to very strong performance within an operating band of OR that we'll be comfortable with. At the end of the day, this company is very focused on delivering margins, delivering growth with -- profitable growth with margin improvement, which should lead over time to a good OR.

因此，我們的挑戰是在業務上實現真正的成長，而這會帶來強勁的增量利潤率，同時持續控制成本、善用資產。如此一來，應能在我們可接受的OR營運區間內，帶來非常強勁的表現。歸根結底，這家公司非常專注於交付利潤率、交付成長——以獲利性成長並改善利潤率，長期而言應能帶來良好的OR。

Our next question comes from John Chappell with Evercore ISI.

下一個問題來自Evercore ISI的John Chappell。

Kevin, as we watch these service metrics improved significantly since really the middle part of last year, and is intermodal trip plan performance just consistently around 90 and industry best standards. It's a little confusing that even given the headwinds, maybe your intermodal volumes are running lighter on a year-over-year basis than most of the other Class 1s.

Kevin，從去年年中以來，我們看到這些服務指標顯著改善，而聯運（intermodal）行程計畫（trip plan）績效也一直維持在約90，並達到業界最佳標準。即便考量逆風因素，仍有點令人困惑的是，你們的聯運量在年對年基礎上似乎比多數其他一級鐵路（Class 1）更疲弱。

Can you help us explain any disconnect between those improving metrics and some of those intermodal shortfalls that may be unique to you? And maybe that also ties in then to explaining a bit more on some of the strategic opportunities that you noted in your prepared remarks?

你能否協助我們解釋，這些改善中的指標與你們某些可能較為獨特的聯運缺口之間，為何會出現落差？也許這也能連結到你在事先準備的發言中提到的一些策略性機會，請再多說明一些？

Yes. I think when you look at -- and look, 3 years -- or 3 weeks doesn't make a year, so we've got a lot of work to do as a team. But we I think you'll see over the last 2 years and through the pandemic that we really outperformed the industry and a lot of that growth that we mentioned before came on the international side. And we don't pay -- we don't I spend a lot of time thinking about the other Class 1 railroads, but I do believe we probably have a little bit higher percentage of our businesses, obviously, exposed to that international market where we've had a great, great success, and we see a long-term outlook that's very positive for us. So I think that's probably contributing to some of the things we're seeing here recently.

是的。我想當你看——而且你看，3年——或3週並不等於1年，所以我們作為一個團隊還有很多工作要做。但我認為你會看到，在過去兩年以及疫情期間，我們確實跑贏了產業，而我們先前提到的許多成長來自國際端。我們不會——我不會花很多時間去想其他一級鐵路公司，但我確實相信，我們的業務占比可能稍微更高，顯然更暴露於那個國際市場；而我們在那裡取得了非常、非常大的成功，且我們看到對我們而言非常正面的長期展望。所以我認為，這可能正在促成我們近期看到的一些現象。

But we've obviously had great performance and continue to think we'll win share in the market. The team has got a number of initiatives that will take form later on in the year that will drive incremental business to the railroad. So excited of what we can do in the quarters ahead.

但我們顯然有很好的表現，也持續相信我們會在市場中贏得市占。團隊有多項計畫將在今年稍晚成形，並將為鐵路帶來增量業務。因此，我們對未來幾季能做到的事情感到振奮。

We'll take our next question from Tom Wadewitz with UBS.

我們接著請UBS的Tom Wadewitz提問。

I just had a clarification for you first before the question. I don't know if I caught what your GDP assumption is or which forecast you're referring to just in terms of how we anchor to the volume comment? And then, Joe, I wanted to see if you could offer some more thoughts about your comments on relationships? And I think tying into labor, how do you think about how you want that relationship to change? Does that cost you something to do that?

我先請你澄清一下再進入問題。我不確定我是否聽到你們對GDP的假設是多少，或你們是引用哪個預測，作為我們理解運量評論的錨點？然後，Joe，我想請你再多談談你對「關係」的評論。我想把它和勞動力連在一起，你如何看待你希望那種關係如何改變？要做到這件事會讓你付出成本嗎？

And what's the benefit over time? Is it just probably attrition is running 15% a year, we wanted to get down to 5%, and that saves us sort of help service. Just some broader thoughts on when you talk about relationships and labor, what do you mean by that? And how do you think about what that does over time?

而長期的好處是什麼？是否只是例如流失率一年約15%，我們希望降到5%，這能在某種程度上節省成本並有助於服務？當你談到關係與勞動力時，你指的是什麼？你如何看待這對長期的影響？

Tom, on your GDP question, roughly 0.5% growth is the GDP number that we're looking at. And so our guidance is to grow in total above that with intermodal headwinds and solid growth across the other markets?

Tom，關於你的GDP問題，我們看的GDP數字大約是成長0.5%。因此，我們的指引是整體成長要高於這個水準，儘管聯運有逆風，但其他市場將有穩健成長。

Yes, Tom, this is Joe. Thanks for the question regarding labor. So lots of thoughts here, but I'll try to be concise. First, and just a reminder to everybody that this is a service business. And we provide our service to our customers. We move their goods from point A to point B and we're proud of the way we do that. But remember that in the service industry and service business, it's all about the employees. You're not selling a product, you're not developing a product, you're really relying on your employees to represent your company in the service of your customers.

是的，Tom，我是Joe。謝謝你關於勞動力的提問。這裡有很多想法，但我會盡量簡潔。首先，也提醒大家，這是一門服務業務。我們向客戶提供服務，把他們的貨物從A點運到B點，我們也以我們做到這件事的方式為榮。但請記住，在服務產業與服務型企業中，一切都取決於員工。你不是在賣產品，也不是在開發產品，你真正仰賴的是員工代表公司為客戶提供服務。

I start there because that's so critically important to understand why it's so critical to have a really strong relationship with your employees, including those represented by unions because they are the individuals doing the work, providing -- moving goods to make Point A to Point B and serving our customers.

我從這裡談起，是因為理解這一點至關重要：為什麼與員工建立非常強健的關係如此關鍵——包括那些由工會代表的員工——因為他們就是實際做工作的人，提供——把貨物從A點運到B點並服務我們的客戶。

And so the motive here isn't to try and leverage relationships to try and decrease costs or find a dollar here and there. It's all about building a culture where our employees feel valued and appreciated, included in the service of our customers in a way that we can demonstrate that CSX is unique and different from the other options they have, and provides a value proposition to our customers that we think can be very, very special.

因此，動機並不是想利用關係來降低成本，或在這裡那裡省下一點錢。重點在於建立一種文化，讓員工感到被重視、被感謝，並以一種方式被納入服務客戶的過程，使我們能展現CSX與他們其他選擇相比是獨特且不同的，並為客戶提供我們認為非常、非常特別的價值主張。

And so there's a lot of -- I've been spending a lot of time out in the field, Jamie and I travel almost every week. And as I've learned a lot about this industry about this business, there's a lot of variability and a lot of independence when it comes to the work that's done now in the field because this is not a factory assembly line where you're stationed in a certain position and you've got a cycle time to meet. And if you don't make it, all bells and whistles go off.

因此有很多——我一直花很多時間在現場，Jamie和我幾乎每週都出差。隨著我對這個產業、這門業務了解越多，我發現目前在現場完成的工作具有很大的變異性與很高的自主性，因為這不是工廠的裝配線：你固定站在某個位置，有一個必須達成的節拍時間；如果你沒達到，就會警鈴大作。

When you have your employees motivated, engaged and feeling valued, their efforts to support what your initiatives are, are greatly enhanced. And that's just human nature, and that's really what's important about this relationship is that listening to our employees, resolving their issues, working on things that improve their efficiency and their work-life balance and their work-life experience and safety and other things, leads to a better service product for our customers, which ultimately leads to a better business for everyone, including our employees.

當員工有動力、投入並感到被重視時，他們支持你各項倡議的努力會大幅提升。這是人性，而這也正是這段關係的重要之處：傾聽員工、解決他們的問題、推動能提升效率與工作—生活平衡、工作—生活體驗、安全等事項的改善，會為客戶帶來更好的服務產品，最終讓所有人（包括員工）都擁有更好的業務成果。

From the labor side, it's really about building relationships and generating trust and getting to the point where you're going to have real dialogue around solutions and around ideas and around understanding each other's desires and perspective so that we can find the best solutions. I have found in my past experiences that when you get to that point, you have a healthier business and you have happier, safer employees who are working better together to serve the customers. That's really the desire here is to provide that kind of opportunity for our employees.

從勞動力的角度來看，這真正關乎建立關係、建立信任，並達到能就解決方案、想法，以及理解彼此需求與觀點進行真正對話的程度，從而找到最佳解方。依我過去的經驗，當你達到那個程度時，你會有更健康的企業，也會有更快樂、更安全的員工；大家更能協同合作來服務客戶。這就是我們在此的真正期望：為員工提供那樣的機會。

Now what comes with that? Lower attrition, better recommendations for the referrals, for new hires and in the family and fund network and just a better experience for everybody. So that's really a big part of the ONE CSX culture initiative is all around building this team, working all together and labor is a big part of that.

那會帶來什麼？更低的流失率、更好的口碑推薦（referrals）以招募新進人員，以及在家庭與朋友圈網絡中的推薦，並讓每個人都有更好的體驗。因此，這確實是「ONE CSX」文化倡議的重要部分：圍繞著建立這支團隊、讓大家一起合作，而勞動力是其中很重要的一環。

And so it's a little more complicated in the rail industry with 12 different unions. However, we feel really good about where we are with our team. Jamie and his team are working every day, having lots of good discussions. We voluntarily on our own, changed our attendance policy based on feedback that's really impactful to our employees. That's a great first step in this relationship. We're listening to them every day. We're working on problem solving, and ultimately, with the purpose in mind of creating that environment where employees want to be a part of that and want to serve our customers better. And with that comes a much more efficient operation and, frankly, better service for our customers, which ultimately leads to opportunity for growth.

因此，在鐵路產業中，因為有12個不同的工會，情況會更複雜一些。不過，我們對目前團隊的狀態感到非常良好。Jamie和他的團隊每天都在努力，進行許多良好的討論。我們也自發地主動根據回饋調整了出勤政策，這對員工影響很大。這是這段關係很好的第一步。我們每天都在傾聽他們、一起解決問題；最終的目的，是打造那種員工願意成為其中一份子、也願意更好地服務客戶的環境。而隨之而來的是更高效率的營運，以及坦白說，為客戶提供更好的服務，最終帶來成長機會。

We'll take our next question from Ken Hoexter with Bank of America.

我們的下一個問題來自美國銀行（Bank of America）的 Ken Hoexter。

Thanks for the rundown there, Joe. Just maybe can we clarify -- so Sean, I guess you're looking for volume growth offset by accessorial and cold yield declines, efficiency gains with service costs gone, but inflation up. But I just want to clarify, you're not specifically committing to income or operating improvement for the year, right? There was no outlook on what that means for collateral or the EPS line?

謝謝你剛才的說明，Joe。想再釐清一下——Sean，我想你的意思是：以運量成長來抵銷附加費（accessorial）與冷藏（cold）單位收益下滑；在服務成本消失後透過效率提升帶來改善，但通膨仍在上升。不過我想確認的是，你並沒有特別承諾今年會有獲利或營運面的改善，對嗎？也沒有提供這對附帶損害（collateral）或 EPS 那一行的展望？

That's right.

沒錯。

Okay. And then Jamie, the on-time originations fell to 54%. I think they've fallen now 12 of the past 13 quarters. Isn't the whole name of the game of what you're doing with Precision Railroading to leave on time. and get that moving. Maybe talk to me about what the network needs to do to fix that? And Joe, I don't know if you've come in what your thoughts are on operations, what balance of operations versus top line growth.

好的。接著 Jamie，準點始發（on-time originations）降到 54%。我想這已經是過去 13 個季度中的 12 個季度下滑了。你們推行精準鐵路（Precision Railroading）的核心不就是要準點出發、讓列車動起來嗎？能不能談談網路需要做什麼才能修正這個問題？另外 Joe，我不確定你上任後對營運有什麼想法——營運與營收成長之間要如何取捨平衡？

Okay. And you're right. The last couple of years, really, we've seen our on-time originations drop. And that's been -- it's been consistent, unfortunately, because of the manpower situation we've been in. I'm happy to say, over the past 3 weeks into this year, we started to get back up to our record highs. The team is hitting up over 85% on-time, which is great. It starts to get us balanced.

好的。你說得對。過去幾年，我們的準點始發確實下滑。而且——很不幸地——由於我們所處的人力狀況，這種情況一直持續。不過我很高興地說，今年開年過去 3 週，我們已開始回升到接近歷史高點。團隊準點率已回到 85% 以上，這很棒，也讓我們開始恢復平衡。

And as we continue to onboard some more folks, we'll continue to get that driven up to that record of, I think, in 2019, where we're up around 89%, 90% on-time origination and that's what we're shooting for. So it is important. It's an important metric we'll watch. We made some decisions last year to back off a little bit on that, so we could connect as much traffic as we could and not leave things behind when we did have a crew and make sure we took advantage of that crew, and we maximized what we could on those train starts. Not saying that we're letting that go at all. We're going to maximize what's on each one of these trains that we run out there car-wise, but we've now got the people to balance the assets across the network, and you can see it.

隨著我們持續招募並讓更多人到位，我們會繼續把這個數字推回到我記得 2019 年的紀錄水準——準點始發大約 89%、90%，這就是我們的目標。所以這很重要，這是一個我們會持續關注的重要指標。去年我們做了一些決策，讓這項指標稍微退一步，因為我們希望能盡可能銜接更多貨流，在有車組時不要把貨留在原地，並確保善用車組、把每一次開車（train starts）能做的都做到最大化。這不代表我們要放掉準點這件事。我們仍會在每一班列車上，盡可能把車輛（car-wise）裝載到最大化；但現在我們已有人力可以在全網路間平衡資產配置，你也看得到這個變化。

If you take a look at our velocity, and you take a look at our dwell numbers just in the past 3, 4 weeks, you can see that the network is running much more fluid. We hit that magic number just into the new year that we're looking for that 7,000 T&E count. And actually, as a matter of fact, we're at 7,100 today. And we're going to push that number a little bit more to cover vacation coming up in the next few months. So we're going to make sure that we've got the right headcount. We're going to make sure that we've got the right people in the right places and we continue to drive those metrics that will drive the rest of the service metrics.

如果你看看我們的運行速度（velocity），再看看過去 3、4 週的停留時間（dwell）數據，你會看到網路運行順暢得多。我們在新年剛開始就達到我們一直在追的那個「魔術數字」——T&E 人數 7,000。事實上，我們今天已經到 7,100。接下來幾個月要進入休假季，我們還會再把這個數字往上推一點，以便覆蓋休假需求。所以我們會確保人力編制正確、確保對的人在對的位置，並持續推動那些能帶動其他服務指標的關鍵指標。

I mean, again, TPC, whether it's carload, intermodal, all the rest of it that you see that we've put out there, we're starting to get back to our -- as a matter of fact, we're beyond our record numbers on some of those service metrics. So we're going to provide a product that Kevin and his team can go out there and sell and start growing this company.

再說一次，TPC，不管是整車（carload）、聯運（intermodal），以及你看到我們對外公布的其他所有項目，我們正開始回到——事實上，在某些服務指標上我們已經超越歷史紀錄。所以我們會提供一個產品，讓 Kevin 和他的團隊能夠拿去對外銷售，並開始推動公司成長。

Yes. So Ken, thanks for the question. A couple of just additional comments. We spend a lot of time as a team talking about our customer service metrics whether it's on-time originations and arrivals, whether it's in the last mile, first mile, those kind of things. And I'm really pleased with how the team is looking at everything. And we want to make sure that we're seeing the world through the lens -- through the eyes of our customers, which is why we get feedback on surveys. And Kevin referenced, we've seen the best results in our customer surveys that we've seen in quite some time. So I feel really good about that.

是的。Ken，謝謝你的問題。我再補充幾點。我們團隊花了很多時間討論客戶服務指標，不論是準點始發與到達（on-time originations and arrivals），或是最後一哩、第一哩等這類事項。我對團隊檢視各項指標的方式非常滿意。我們也希望能透過——從客戶的視角來看世界，這也是我們透過問卷調查取得回饋的原因。Kevin 也提到，我們在客戶調查中看到的結果，是相當長一段時間以來最好的，所以我對此感覺非常好。

Now the balance between top line growth and operations, I think they're intertwined. And I said this in October. I feel even more strongly about it now. We have a phenomenal opportunity here at CSX to leverage our strength in our operational performance that you've seen pre-pandemic. You're seeing now again to earn the right to talk to our customers about getting more business. And that is a lot better than chasing top line growth and to be able to demonstrate that you can rely on us with our capacity and our service levels and our prioritization on your service to be there for you. And I believe very strongly, there's business opportunity there. So we can allow that to happen naturally organically because we have a better product.

至於營收成長與營運之間的平衡，我認為兩者是交織在一起的。我在 10 月就說過這點，而現在我更堅信如此。CSX 有一個非常好的機會，可以運用你在疫情前看到、而現在又再次看到的營運表現優勢，先「贏得」與客戶談更多業務的資格。這比起一味追逐營收成長要好得多——我們能夠證明，無論是運能、服務水準，或是對你服務的優先順序，你都可以依賴我們。我非常相信這裡面有業務機會。因此，因為我們有更好的產品，這些成長可以自然、內生成長地發生。

We have a lower price than most trucking and we have a better ESG solution and to do that the right way. So that's why we've been so focused on getting the manpower where it needs to be and really getting -- making sure that we're focusing on the right metrics for the business, and I'm really pleased with where we are. So I feel even more strongly today than I did in the call in October about this opportunity. We can't predict what's going to happen in the economy this year, and that's part of what you're seeing in some of this dialogue is we're not exactly sure what happens in the second and third quarter.

我們的價格比多數卡車運輸更低，而且我們也提供更好的 ESG 解決方案，並以正確的方式去做。因此我們才會如此專注於把人力補到位，並真正確保我們聚焦在對業務最重要的指標上；我對目前的進展非常滿意。所以相較於 10 月那次電話會議，我今天對這個機會的信心更強。今年經濟會怎麼走我們無法預測，而你在這些對話中看到的一部分原因，就是我們也不確定第二、第三季會發生什麼。

We're very pleased with how the year has started. However, we don't know exactly where the economy is going to go, given rising interest rates and some of the other things that are going on. Actually, you could say that in the data that we've been seeing that some parts of the economy started slowing down really in October, November. And we just didn't see it in our business because we couldn't meet some of that demand back then. But we feel really good about where we are. We're not going to chase top line growth. We're continuing to leverage our operating model, but we believe it's there to be earned, and that's the conversation we're having with our customers.

我們對今年的開局非常滿意。然而，考量到利率上升以及其他正在發生的事情，我們並不確定經濟接下來會走向何方。其實你可以從我們看到的數據說，經濟的某些部分在 10 月、11 月就開始放緩了。只是當時我們因為無法滿足部分需求，所以在我們的業務上沒有反映出來。但我們對目前的狀況感覺很好。我們不會去追逐營收成長；我們會持續運用我們的營運模式，但我們相信機會就在那裡、需要靠表現去贏得，而這正是我們正在與客戶進行的對話。

Our next question comes from Brian Ossenbeck with JPMorgan.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通（JPMorgan）的 Brian Ossenbeck。

And maybe just on that last part about unmet demand. We heard that a lot across the different Class I rail conference calls. And is there a way, since you're counting on it and you're seeing some of it through surveys and clearly, the service has improved. Is there a way you can sort of try to quantify that for us in terms of what you lost or what you think is coming back with fill rates or anything else you can put around there in terms of a metric? And what gives you that confidence that you can count on that coming back, not just the interest level is there, especially when you have a softer macro and probably contract truckloads heading lower as well?

也許就你剛才提到的那段「未被滿足的需求」再問一下。我們在不同的第一級鐵路（Class I rail）法說電話會議上常聽到這點。既然你們把它納入考量，而且你們也透過調查看到一些跡象，服務也明顯改善了——你們是否有辦法幫我們量化一下：你們失去了多少、或你們認為會回流多少？例如用訂單滿足率（fill rates）或任何其他可以作為指標的東西？另外，在總體環境轉弱、而合約卡車運價（contract truckloads）可能也在走低的情況下，除了「興趣」之外，是什麼讓你有信心可以指望這些需求回來？

Yes, Brian, it's Kevin. I think Joe actually touched on this really, really well. And I think what's probably a little bit underappreciated what's happened in some of the things that we've seen in some of the major markets that we serve today is -- and I had referenced this previously on other earnings calls, we were in that 60%, 70% type of order fill rates pretty much through most of 2022. What happened starting in, let's call it, the late third quarter, fourth quarter in some of these markets, we saw those orders come down. And obviously, our fill rates kind of remained -- or on mix or whatever our volumes that we're serving for those customers remain relatively flat. And so we saw our fill rates start to increase, and they're at higher levels now and the markets we see maybe the demand, what they're requesting is down 30%, yet our volumes are slightly down today.

是的，Brian，我是 Kevin。我認為 Joe 其實已經把這點講得非常、非常到位。我想有些事情可能被低估了：我們今天服務的一些主要市場中所發生的變化——我之前在其他財報電話會議也提過——在 2022 年的大部分時間，我們的訂單滿足率大致落在 60%、70% 的區間。從第三季末、第四季開始，在其中一些市場我們看到訂單量下降。很顯然，我們的滿足率——或是組合（mix），或是我們為這些客戶服務的量——相對仍維持平穩。因此我們看到滿足率開始上升，現在已在更高水準；而在某些市場，我們看到需求（他們提出的要求）可能下降了 30%，但我們目前的運量只小幅下滑。

What my expectation is and what we're starting to see is that they've already overshot what they saw what would be a normal demand environment, and we're seeing order flows start to increase. And so that's encouraging that it feels like in some of these markets, we've established the bottom. Anything can happen in the economy, but it feels that way as of right now, and we'll see how it plays out. But a point on that is as those ores come back and as we're able to meet that demand going forward, that would imply growth versus last year. And so that's embedded in what some of the guidance that we provided today and why we have a confidence around accelerating or beating that GDP number is that we're going to go and capture those orders and those demand that the customer has out there this year with the replenished workforce and all the things that the operations team is doing.

我的預期以及我們開始看到的情況是，他們其實已經超過了他們原先認為的正常需求環境水準，而我們也看到訂單流開始增加。因此這是令人鼓舞的，感覺在其中一些市場，我們已經建立了底部。經濟上任何事情都可能發生，但就目前而言，感覺是這樣，我們會看看後續如何發展。不過這裡有一點是，隨著那些訂單回來，以及我們能夠在未來滿足那個需求，這將意味著相較去年會有成長。因此這也已經反映在我們今天提供的部分指引之中；而我們之所以對於加速或超越那個 GDP 數字有信心，是因為我們將會去承接並捕捉今年客戶在市場上的那些訂單與需求，靠著補足的人力以及營運團隊正在做的所有事情。

And would you expect that to be more heavily weighted on the merchandise side because that probably was a carload before? Or are you seeing real momentum on truckload conversion, maybe more on the intermodal side?

那你會預期這會更偏向商品（merchandise）端的比重嗎？因為那之前可能是車載（carload）？還是你看到卡車整車（truckload）轉換有真正的動能，可能更多在聯運（intermodal）端？

Yes. I think you'll see it really start on the carload side. That's where we -- when I referenced the order fill rates, that's really carload specific. You'll remember on the intermodal side, it really was an equipment issue. Good thing is those equipment issues, whether it's chassis, containers, I think we have plenty of those in most locations now throughout that market. And you've heard different commentary around that, but there is some softness in the truck market today.

是的。我認為你會看到它確實先從車載（carload）端開始。當我提到訂單填補率（order fill rates）時，那其實是車載特有的指標。你會記得在聯運端，當時主要是設備問題。好消息是，這些設備問題，不論是底盤（chassis）、貨櫃（containers），我認為在該市場的大多數地點我們現在都有足夠的供給。你也聽到過不同的評論，但目前卡車市場確實有一些疲軟。

There is some optimism, hopefully, as we get into the back half of the year that, that will firm up a bit, and we have every intention of taking advantage of that market as it comes to us. We have the premier service in intermodal and it's been reflected in our growth over the last couple of years, and we continue to expect to capitalize on that.

我們希望，隨著進入今年下半年，情況會稍微轉強一些；而我們也完全打算在那個市場回到我們面前時把握機會。我們在聯運方面擁有頂級服務，這也反映在我們過去幾年的成長上，而我們也持續預期能夠在此基礎上進一步擴大成果。

Our next question comes from Ariel Rosa with Credit Suisse.

我們的下一個問題來自 Credit Suisse 的 Ariel Rosa。

So I wanted to stay on that topic. You mentioned some softness maybe in the trucking market. I wanted to ask to what extent that's an impediment to intermodal volume growth. And then in a more normalized environment, how do you think about CSX's ability to kind of outgrow GDP or maybe something around kind of the magnitude at which you could outgrow GDP versus this kind of loose truck market?

所以我想延續這個主題。你提到卡車市場可能有些疲軟。我想問，這在多大程度上會成為聯運量成長的阻礙？另外，在更正常化的環境下，你如何看待 CSX 有能力去跑贏 GDP，或是你能跑贏 GDP 的幅度，相較於目前這種較為寬鬆的卡車市場？

Yes. The truck market is obviously -- centers around our intermodal product. That's where we go direct with truck, not that we don't compete on our carload business as well, but that's where you see the sensitivity sometimes. In international market, as everybody is aware of, has been weak, and we've got -- we've had great growth there, and we have a great mark-to-market that we continue to expect to grow over time.

是的。卡車市場顯然——主要圍繞著我們的聯運產品。那是我們直接與卡車競爭的地方；並不是說我們在車載業務上不競爭，但在聯運這裡你有時會看到敏感度。國際市場如大家所知一直偏弱，而我們在那裡——我們在那裡一直有很好的成長，而且我們有很好的「隨行就市」（mark-to-market）機會，我們也持續預期會隨時間推進而成長。

But as I mentioned in my recent comments, opening comments that, that market probably will be down somewhat double digits in the first half of the year, and hopefully, as the economy stabilizes and there's some green shoots out there that we'll see some better growth into the second half of the year, at least not the decreases that we're experiencing today.

但如我在最近的評論、開場發言中提到的，那個市場在今年上半年可能會出現約雙位數的下滑；希望隨著經濟穩定下來、外面出現一些復甦的跡象（green shoots），我們會在下半年看到更好的成長，至少不要像我們今天所經歷的那樣下滑。

I think every bit of intention here is across our portfolio that we're going to outgrow the macro economy. And I think there's a lot of things at tailwinds at our back. But we've had a huge success rate on our industrial development side. We have a lot of new projects that are coming online when you look out beyond this year. Big, big backlog, probably the largest backlog that anybody here can remember in a long time whether it's new auto plants, metals plants, all those across the board, we've really had a good success rate there, and that will give us growth going forward.

我認為我們在整個產品組合上的意圖都是要跑贏總體經濟。我也認為有很多順風在我們背後推動。不過我們在工業開發（industrial development）方面的成功率非常高。當你把視野放到今年以後，我們有很多新專案即將上線。龐大的、非常大的待執行案量（backlog），可能是這裡任何人很久以來記得最大的 backlog——不論是新的汽車工廠、金屬工廠，全面各類專案，我們在那裡確實有很好的成功率，而這將在未來帶來成長。

So our intention is to outgrow the economy. And I know that's not something that the railroads have been able to do. But I think there's -- with the service product that we're going to have, I think that's really, really possible going forward.

所以我們的意圖是跑贏經濟。我知道這不是鐵路業者過去能做到的事情。但我認為——憑藉我們將提供的服務產品，我認為未來這是非常、非常有可能的。

And then just really quickly on some of those projects, any thoughts on kind of what the incremental margins could look like around that?

然後很快地問一下，關於其中一些專案，你對於相關的增量利潤率（incremental margins）可能會是什麼樣子，有什麼想法嗎？

I think -- I don't know a business that we're bringing on where the incremental margins aren't very attractive and are in a very good rate of return for us. It's something that I put my finance hat on every time I look at the business, and we're not going to chase unprofitable business just to show top line growth.

我認為——我想不到我們正在導入的任何一項業務，其增量利潤率不是非常有吸引力、且對我們而言具有非常好的投資報酬率。每次我用財務的角度去看這些業務時都是如此；我們不會為了展現營收成長而去追逐不具獲利性的業務。

And we'll take our next question from Fadi Chamoun with BMO Capital Markets.

接下來我們的問題來自 BMO Capital Markets 的 Fadi Chamoun。

Maybe first on those 2 boxes and the guiding principles and Joe, you highlighted improving customer service and developing the employees and especially with respect to some of the conversations maybe you're having with customers, do you feel that there's going to be a lag between when you start demonstrating the success on the service side and really penetrating that share of wallet with these customers? Or do you think there is really a quick potential turnaround between kind of making those improvements in the time that market share improvement?

也許先談那兩個框架與指導原則。Joe，你強調提升客戶服務與培育員工，特別是就你可能正在與客戶進行的一些對話而言，你是否覺得在你開始展現服務端成功之後，到真正提高這些客戶的錢包份額（share of wallet）之間會有一段落差？還是你認為在做出這些改善與市場份額提升之間，可能會有很快的轉折？

And second, maybe a follow-up on the test conversation with Kevin now like looking over into 2024 to 2025 and assuming we're back into a normalized GDP, given the backlog that you have and given some of these initiatives and the investments you've made in QC and PanAm. Outside of coal, is there a reason why you can't grow volume mid-single digits as we get into this more normalized environment? Ex coal.

第二個問題，可能是延續你和 Kevin 的測試對話：展望 2024 到 2025，假設我們回到正常化的 GDP，在你們擁有的 backlog、以及你們在 QC 和 PanAm 所做的一些措施與投資之下，撇除煤炭之外，有什麼理由讓你們無法在更正常化的環境中把運量成長做到中個位數（mid-single digits）？不含煤（Ex coal）。

I'll take -- this is Joe. I'll take the first part and ask Kevin to take the second for since you directed him. From my perspective, the opportunity here to grow the business really comes from increasing that service product. Now your question around the timing of that, it's all really individually dependent on each customer, where they are, where their cost pressures, where their capacity issues and what are they looking for.

我先回答——我是 Joe。我先回答第一部分，然後請 Kevin 依你點名來回答第二部分。就我看來，這裡成長業務的機會，真正來自於提升那個服務產品。至於你問的時點問題，這其實完全取決於每一位客戶的個別情況：他們在哪裡、他們的成本壓力在哪裡、他們的產能問題在哪裡，以及他們在尋找什麼。

So we can't use a blanket statement that if we demonstrate these levels of performance for 3 months. The next comes from it really in our conversation with our customers is really around their confidence in our ability to be repeatable and reliable. And so the answer to that question is different for each customer. But I can tell you, they're all watching and they're all noticing and they're all letting us to know that they're really appreciating the progress that we're making. So it will play out over time. But there's nothing inconsistent that we're hearing from our customers about their appreciation for it and recognizing how important it is. Kevin?

所以我們不能用一個一體適用的說法，例如我們若展現這些績效水準 3 個月，接下來就會如何。因為在我們與客戶的對話中，真正的重點在於他們對我們能否可重複（repeatable）且可靠（reliable）的信心。因此這個問題的答案對每一位客戶都不同。但我可以告訴你，他們都在觀察、都注意到了，也都讓我們知道他們非常感謝我們正在取得的進展。所以這會隨時間推進而逐步發酵。但我們從客戶那裡聽到的，沒有任何與此不一致的訊息：他們很感謝，也認知到這有多重要。Kevin？

Yes. I think the question was, is there a reason why we can't grow mid-single digits. I think Jamie answered the question on the network side, we have a lot of capacity to grow into and it's -- we're going to use that capacity and go after wallet share with our existing customers and identify new customers. So there's no constraints from that perspective. Obviously, that putting up mid-single-digit volume and then with price is a pretty attractive algorithm, we'll see what we can do and what the market conditions are at the time. It's a more normalized GDP growth rate, 3% or 4%, then that's different than maybe 1% to 2%. So we'll see how things materialize as we get out of '23, and '24, '25. The great thing is we have some tailwinds from new customers that will be on our railroad, and that will give growth above the economy, hopefully, that will add to that algorithm over time as we build the funnel of all the projects that we've been able to develop and that will be coming online in the future.

是的。我想問題是：是否有理由讓我們無法達到中個位數成長。我認為 Jamie 已經從網路（network）角度回答了：我們有很多可用來承接成長的產能——而且——我們會運用那個產能，去爭取現有客戶的錢包份額並辨識新客戶。所以從這個角度看沒有約束。顯然，如果能做到中個位數的運量成長，再加上定價，那是一個相當有吸引力的演算法（algorithm）。我們會看看我們能做到什麼，以及當時的市場條件如何。如果是更正常化的 GDP 成長率，例如 3% 或 4%，那就不同於可能 1% 到 2% 的情境。所以我們會看事情在 2023 年走出來、以及 2024、2025 年如何成形。好的一點是，我們有一些來自新客戶的順風，他們將會在我們的鐵路網上運輸，這將帶來高於經濟的成長；希望隨著時間推進，當我們建立起所有已開發、且未來將上線的專案漏斗（funnel），這些都會為那個演算法增添動能。

Our next question comes from Ravi Shanker with Morgan Stanley.

我們的下一個問題來自 Morgan Stanley 的 Ravi Shanker。

Two quick ones here. First, you've said you can grow GDP plus. Many of your peers are using industrial production as a benchmark. In fact, I think one of them has come out and said a couple of years ago that they don't think they can grow faster than GDP going forward, and they think they can try and outpace industrial production instead. So a, do you think GDP is the right benchmark for you and kind of what gives you the ability and confidence to think that you can grow faster in GDP in the long run? And just as a quick follow-up. I think you had said that incentive comp was a tailwind to numbers in '22. How do we think about incentive comp in '23?

這裡兩個簡短問題。第一，你們說你們可以做到 GDP 以上的成長。你們許多同業是以工業生產（industrial production）作為基準。事實上，我想其中一家在幾年前就表示，他們認為未來無法成長快於 GDP，而是認為可以嘗試跑贏工業生產。因此，a，你認為 GDP 對你們而言是正確的基準嗎？以及是什麼讓你們有能力與信心相信長期可以成長快於 GDP？另外快速追問一下：我記得你提到激勵薪酬（incentive comp）在 2022 年對數字是順風。那我們在 2023 年該如何看待激勵薪酬？

Ravi, this is Sean. So on your GDP plus comment, look, I think if you look historically and you run the correlations, our business tends to move more closely with the underlying IDP indicators, particularly across the merchandise segment, maybe a little more on GDP in intermodal. But you look at this year specifically, the projection for IDP is a decline and the projection for GDP is growth, and we think we can grow the business. So it made a lot of sense this year to peg it off of GDP.

Ravi，我是Sean。關於你提到的 GDP plus（GDP 加成）評論，你看，我認為如果你回顧歷史並做相關性分析，我們的業務往往更貼近基礎的 IDP 指標變動，特別是在商品運輸（merchandise）板塊；而在聯運（intermodal）方面，可能會稍微更貼近 GDP。但就今年而言，IDP 的預測是下滑，而 GDP 的預測是成長，我們認為我們仍然可以讓業務成長。因此，今年以 GDP 作為掛鉤基準是很合理的。

On your question on incentive comp, I mean the year has to play itself out. We always go into the year planning to hit the targets that we set internally. And so on that basis, incentive comp would be down a little bit year-over-year versus 2022, but we'll see how that plays out as the year continues.

關於你問到的激勵性薪酬（incentive comp），我的意思是，這一年還得看實際走勢。我們每年一開始都會以達成內部設定的目標來做規劃。因此在這個前提下，激勵性薪酬相較於 2022 年可能會年減一點，但我們會看看隨著今年進行，最終會如何發展。

And we'll take our next question from Cherilyn Radbourne with TD Securities.

接下來我們將請 TD Securities 的 Cherilyn Radbourne 提問。

A question on labor for me. Some of your peers have talked about taking a different approach to furloughs going forward, just given that labor has become more scarce and valuable. So I was hoping you could offer some thoughts on how you would approach headcount in the event that freight demand surprises to the downside, so that you don't lose the investments you've made in hiring and training this year?

我有一個關於勞動力的問題。你們的一些同業談到，鑑於勞動力變得更稀缺、更有價值，未來在無薪假／暫時解雇（furloughs）方面可能會採取不同做法。因此我想請你們分享一下，如果貨運需求意外下滑，你們會如何調整人力編制，以避免流失你們今年在招募與訓練上的投資？

Well, Cheril, thanks for the question. We've got the same stance as we did last quarter. Our T&E workforce is not a workforce that we would look at furloughing as we move forward. We're future -- we're looking into the future, really important that we -- Kevin and I obviously are, as we stated here today, work really close together to see not only what's happening today, but what's happening in 6 months from now, what's happening a year from now. We know that there's customers coming on. And you're absolutely right. The conductors and filling those positions takes a long time. It can take up to 6 months to fill a conductor's position. And we can pull the trigger. Look if there's a downturn in business, we can use the attrition that's there, which is up to 10%. So it's easy for us to hold back classes if we need to, to bring those numbers down and rightsize it if we need to. But as we continue to move forward, we're looking at continuing to build our numbers up so we can get to a point where we can cover vacation time and making sure that our employees get the time off that at times they've struggled over the last couple of years. So we're very close to that number as you can see from our results that we're quite happy that we're moving in the right direction with our service and it's a commitment that we've made that we're going to continue to be looking forward and not doing any knee-jerk reactions and pull that trigger with respect to attrition if required.

嗯，Cheril，謝謝你的問題。我們的立場和上季一樣。我們的 T&E（運輸與工程）人力不是我們未來會考慮實施無薪假／暫時解雇的那種人力。我們是面向未來——我們在看未來，這非常重要；我和 Kevin 顯然如同今天所說，會非常緊密合作，不只看今天發生什麼，也看 6 個月後、一年後會發生什麼。我們知道會有客戶加入。你說得完全正確：列車長（conductor）以及補足這些職位需要很長時間，填補一個列車長職缺可能要長達 6 個月。我們也可以迅速採取行動。你看，如果業務下行，我們可以利用自然流失（attrition），流失率可達 10%。因此如果需要，我們很容易暫緩開班（training classes），把人數降下來並在必要時做適當規模調整（rightsize）。但隨著我們持續往前，我們希望繼續把人數建立起來，讓我們能夠覆蓋休假期間的需求，並確保員工能休到假——過去幾年他們有時在這方面確實比較辛苦。從我們的結果你也可以看到，我們已經非常接近那個目標數字；我們很高興服務正朝正確方向改善，這也是我們的承諾：我們會持續前瞻規劃，不會做任何膝反射式（knee-jerk）的反應；若有需要，會透過自然流失來調整。

We'll take our next question from Bascome Majors with Susquehanna.

接下來我們將請 Susquehanna 的 Bascome Majors 提問。

Joe, last time you spoke with us on the October call, you had a few days on the job, that's a few months now. Can you talk a little bit about when you'll be able to -- or I think you'll be able to roll out your strategy to the Board and investors? And any events like an Investor Day, other format around that as you look forward to kind of getting to where you want to be to really kind of put your stamp on the business?

Joe，上次在 10 月的電話會議你和我們談話時，你上任才幾天；現在已經過了幾個月。你能否談談你何時能夠——或你認為何時能夠——向董事會與投資人推出你的策略？以及在你展望未來、希望真正把你的印記（stamp）放在這門業務上、達到你想要的狀態時，是否會有像投資人日（Investor Day）或其他形式的活動？

Yes. Thanks for the question. Just first, from a philosophy standpoint, this is a really talented team. And so we -- we're doing all this together as a leadership team. We get together every Monday, we've talked about the business, go through all elements of it. And so I want to just emphasize that. I'm 1 piece of that team, but this is a team effort. I'm really proud of the to get to work with every day. It has been 4, 5 months since -- role as fast together. But 20-some visits out in the field and all the other discussions with all customers and regulators and everything else. I feel like I'm learning very quickly, but there's still a long way to go on that learning curve as far as the core business.

是的，謝謝你的問題。首先從理念上來說，這是一個非常有才華的團隊。因此我們——我們是以領導團隊的方式一起做這些事。我們每週一都會聚在一起，討論業務並檢視各個面向。所以我想先強調這一點。我只是團隊中的一部分，但這是團隊合作。我真的很自豪能每天和大家一起工作。自從——擔任這個角色以來已經 4、5 個月了。但我已經在第一線走訪了 20 多次，並且和所有客戶、監管機構以及其他各方進行了許多討論。我覺得自己學得很快，但就核心業務而言，這條學習曲線仍然還有很長一段路要走。

I'm really excited about the emphasis we have on the customer, and I'm really proud of the progress the team has made on the operating side. All that to say, I'm not sure that -- I'm not sure it makes sense to have an Investor Day just to have an Investor Day. We want to do that when we really have some meaningful things to talk about from strategy or technology or some other things. So we trust that we'll do that at the right time when it can be meaningful and not just something we put on the calendar every year just to do. We want it to be impactful. We don't want to take everyone's time and we want it to be important. As far as the strategy and discussion with the Board, I hinted this a little bit in October, but I spent a lot of time with the Board as individuals and collectively in consideration of doing this in their consideration of me. So we had a lot of good conversation over multiple months about the opportunity here and where to put the emphasis and where to really take advantage of the strengths that exist here. And so I feel really, really good about the alignment we have with our Board, with our team here and the work we're doing. And I'm very pleased with the progress we've made with One CSX in just 4 months' time or so. You can feel the momentum on the culture side, you can feel the momentum on what that means for how employees are working together and then the result -- effects on our service.

我對我們強調以客戶為中心感到非常振奮，也很為團隊在營運端取得的進展感到自豪。話雖如此，我不確定——我不確定為了辦而辦一個投資人日是否有意義。我們希望在真正有一些有分量的內容可談時再做，無論是策略、科技或其他事項。因此我們相信會在適當的時間舉辦，讓它有意義，而不是只是每年把它排進行事曆、為做而做。我們希望它能產生影響力。我們不想占用大家的時間，我們希望它是重要的。至於策略以及與董事會的討論，我在 10 月時稍微提過：在董事會考量我、以及我考量這個角色的過程中，我花了很多時間與董事會成員個別及集體交流。因此在好幾個月裡，我們就這裡的機會、該把重點放在哪裡、以及如何真正發揮這裡既有的優勢，進行了很多很好的對話。所以我對我們與董事會、與這裡的團隊之間的對齊（alignment）以及我們正在做的工作感到非常、非常有信心。我也很滿意 One CSX 在短短約 4 個月內取得的進展。你能感受到文化面的動能，也能感受到這對員工如何協作的意義，以及其結果——對我們服務的影響。

So I don't feel compelled to come out with some major strategy just to put my fingerprints on it in some short time period. I think the key thing is -- we have a talented team here. We have a strong operating model. We have a good business. I mean we made $6 billion on less than $15 billion of revenue last year, and we didn't perform our best last year. So we're now starting to demonstrate those performance levels that we showed pre-pandemic levels. So that's a long way of saying that I'm very optimistic about the business and excited about it. And you'll see incremental ideas, initiatives come out, but we really have a strong foundation. And really executing off of that foundation and leveraging the strengths we have is our biggest near-term opportunity, as you've heard the team talk about tonight.

因此，我不覺得有必要在很短的時間內推出某個重大的策略，只是為了留下我的指紋（fingerprints）。我認為關鍵是——我們這裡有一個有才華的團隊。我們有強健的營運模式。我們有一門好生意。我的意思是，我們去年在不到 150 億美元的營收上賺了 60 億美元，而去年我們的表現並不是最佳。所以我們現在開始展現出疫情前的那些績效水準。說了這麼多，我對這門業務非常樂觀，也很興奮。你會看到一些逐步推出的想法與倡議（initiatives），但我們確實有很強的基礎。而在近期最大的機會，就是在這個基礎上把執行做好，並槓桿我們既有的優勢——正如你今晚聽到團隊所談到的。

So just trust that when we're ready to have some more meaningful dialogue on some new initiatives and whatnot, then we'll have the right forum to do that. In the near term, we'll continue to see on a weekly, monthly basis, talking about the things we're doing and demonstrating where our priorities are, and that's really around, as we've said many times, improving our customers' experience with us and our service we deliver to them. And the experience our employees have as team members of ours as part of One CSX and just getting the most out of working together to make that happen. So those points won't change over time, but how we use technology, how we use our operations and other initiatives will change, and we'll talk about that at the right time.

所以請相信，當我們準備好就一些新的倡議等議題進行更有意義的對話時，我們會用合適的平台來做。短期內，你會持續在每週、每月看到我們談論正在做的事情，並展現我們的優先事項是什麼；正如我們多次所說，核心就是改善客戶與我們合作的體驗，以及我們交付給他們的服務；也包括我們員工作為 One CSX 團隊成員的工作體驗，並透過更好的協作把成效最大化，讓這些事情發生。這些重點不會隨時間改變，但我們如何運用科技、如何運用營運以及其他倡議會改變，我們會在適當的時機再談。

But just to summarize what our team is saying here tonight, we're very confident about the things we can control in our business. operating performance, our capacity now with our manpower, team we have, the skills and the capabilities we have. There's a little uncertainty about the health of the economy this year. So we watch that very carefully. But we feel really good about how we come into 2023, how we're performing so far in 2023 and the feedback we're getting from our customers. And so we'll leverage that to show that we can deliver growth and that we can build an even stronger business.

不過總結一下我們團隊今晚在這裡所說的：我們對於業務中我們能控制的事情非常有信心——營運表現、我們目前在人力上的產能、我們的團隊，以及我們具備的技能與能力。今年經濟健康狀況仍有一些不確定性，所以我們會非常密切地觀察。但我們對 2023 年的起步、截至目前在 2023 年的表現，以及我們從客戶那裡得到的回饋都感覺非常好。因此我們會善用這些，證明我們能交付成長，並打造更強健的業務。

We'll take our next question from David Vernon with Bernstein.

接下來我們將請 Bernstein 的 David Vernon 提問。

So Joe, I wanted to ask you a question on the intermodal share take a little bit differently. I'm just curious about your thoughts on what kind of targets you're going to be holding the team accountable to delivering over, call it, a 3- or 5-year view. As you step back and look at the intermodal market in the East, it's grown at about 38 basis points a year for the last 7 years. you guys are doing about 3 million units, and you were doing about 3 million units in 2015, '16. What should we be thinking about on a 5-year view about how much share you could actually put onto the railroad not looking at the guidance for this year because the economy is weak, and I get it's tough to forecast. But I'm just trying to think like what kind of target are you putting out there for the team to hit?

所以，Joe，我想用稍微不同的角度問你一個關於聯運市占率的問題。我只是好奇，你對於在大約 3 年或 5 年的視角下，你們會用什麼樣的目標來要求團隊交付並負責，有什麼想法。當你退一步看東部的聯運市場，過去 7 年每年大約成長 38 個基點。你們現在大約做 300 萬個單位，而你們在 2015、2016 年也大約是 300 萬個單位。從 5 年的角度來看，我們應該怎麼思考你們實際上能把多少市占率轉移到鐵路上——我不是在看今年的指引，因為經濟疲弱，我也理解很難預測。但我只是想知道，你們對團隊設定的是什麼樣的目標要去達成？

Yes. Thanks for the question. I'm not going to get into specifics about what our targets are long term. But just conceptually, let's talk about it. Just stepping back and learning about this industry and staring at it more closely over the last many months, even before I joined CSX. We interchange a lot with a number of our Class I colleagues. And so this is an industry issue as well as a CSX issue, and that is around real growth, volume growth. So you referenced it.

是的，謝謝你的問題。我不會談我們長期目標的具體數字。但就概念上，我們可以聊聊。過去幾個月，甚至在我加入 CSX 之前，我退一步更深入地學習並更仔細地觀察這個產業。我們與多位一級鐵路（Class I）的同業有大量的交接（interchange）。因此，這既是產業議題，也是 CSX 的議題，也就是關於真正的成長、運量成長。你剛才也提到了。

So how do we make that happen? We have capacity. We have a strong fixed cost base, a very -- a substantial fixed cost base and incremental margins are really good. So that lends itself to really wanting to grow like most businesses, those kind of -- and we have strong margins to start with.

那我們要怎麼讓它發生？我們有運能。我們有很強的固定成本基礎——非常、相當可觀的固定成本基礎，而增量毛利非常好。因此，這讓我們像大多數企業一樣，真的很想成長；而且我們起始的利潤率就很強。

So how do we grow? As an industry, as a company, I mean that's the discussion we're having and the opportunities we're pursuing over the next several years. So from our perspective, we need to demonstrate to ourselves and to others that we can grow volume ideally above either GDP or industrial production, whatever, where do you want -- ways you want to measure it year after year and bring the margins that come with that to show growth in the business, not just on pricing, but also on volume.

那我們要怎麼成長？不論是就產業或公司而言，我的意思是，這就是我們在討論的事情，也是我們未來幾年要追求的機會。從我們的角度，我們需要向自己以及向外界證明，我們能夠讓運量成長，理想上每年都能高於 GDP 或工業生產——不管你想用哪種方式衡量——並把隨之而來的利潤率帶進來，展現業務的成長，不只是靠定價，也要靠運量。

That is something we're looking to do, and we'll continue to challenge ourselves to do. With that comes the customer service metrics and demonstrating continual progression there in things like trip lane compliance and first mile last mile, but also in with the way the customers measure things. Are the MTs there when they need to be there? Did the load get there when they need to be there? So they can manage their manpower and their business, et cetera. So continual progress, Jamie referenced it on the customer side.

這是我們想要做到的事情，也會持續要求自己做到。這也牽涉到客戶服務指標，並在例如行程/路線遵循（trip lane compliance）以及第一哩/最後一哩（first mile last mile）等方面，持續展現進步；同時也要符合客戶衡量的方式：空車（MTs）是否在他們需要時到位？貨載是否在他們需要時送達？這樣他們才能管理人力與業務等等。因此要持續進步，Jamie 也在客戶面向提到了。

And then on the employee side, with our employee surveys and with our relationships with our union leaders and our union partners, et cetera, how do we become the kind of environment where -- back what we've had over time where you have just all this multigenerational activity because people are so proud to be a part of the CSX team and how we work together and the culture that we have around each other. So there's ways to measure those things and challenge ourselves to be accountable with showing progress.

然後在員工面向，透過員工調查，以及我們與工會領袖、工會夥伴等的關係，我們要如何打造一種環境——回到我們過去曾有的狀態——讓你看到很多跨世代的投入，因為大家以成為 CSX 團隊的一員為榮，並以我們彼此合作的方式、以及我們之間的文化為傲。所以，這些事情都有衡量方式，我們也要用展現進步來要求自己負責。

But if you bucket them into those areas and then, of course, we will never forget the financial results. Those are largely outcomes of all the things we're talking about, but continuing to look at our operating efficiency, continue to look at our operating income. Of course, in our cash flow, we will always do that. So without getting -- you can just think about where the emphasis points are and where the priorities are.

但如果你把它們歸類到這些領域，當然，我們永遠不會忘記財務結果。那些在很大程度上是我們所談各項事情的結果，但我們會持續檢視營運效率、持續檢視營業利益；當然也包括現金流，我們永遠都會這麼做。所以不必談得太細——你可以想像重點與優先順序在哪裡。

And then I've referenced technology a couple of times here tonight, and I want to come back to that. How do we leverage technology to be more efficient, to be safer, to better serve our customers and to modernize our business across the enterprise, whether that's in the office or in the locomotive. And we see a lot of potential there. Steve Fortune has joined us. We've got a great technology team. We're excited about that, too.

另外，我今晚已經提到科技好幾次，我想再回到這點。我們要如何運用科技來提升效率、提高安全、為客戶提供更好的服務，並在整個企業範圍內讓業務現代化，不論是在辦公室或在機車上。我們看到那裡有很大的潛力。Steve Fortune 已加入我們。我們有一支很棒的科技團隊。我們對此也很興奮。

So a number of things to think about and challenge ourselves for the future. And we'll have more to say about it over time. But when we get to a point where we are definitely where we want to be with our employee relationship, and we have a safe, trusting environment with our union partners, where we look for solutions and work for both sides and then improve the work-life of our employees while also serving our customers better and having a more efficient business, we can achieve all those things together. Those are the objectives. And I believe we'll get there, and we'll do it the right way.

所以，未來有很多事情值得思考，也值得我們用來要求自己。我們會隨時間推進再多談一些。但當我們達到一個狀態：我們與員工的關係確實達到我們想要的樣子，並且與工會夥伴之間有一個安全、互信的環境，我們尋求解決方案、為雙方努力；同時改善員工的工作與生活平衡，也更好地服務客戶並讓企業更有效率——我們就能一起達成所有這些事。這些就是目標。我相信我們會做到，而且會用正確的方式做到。

Okay. Jamie, if I could just sneak a little follow-on in there. As you think about the headcount plan from where we are today, are you expecting to continue to grow it into the year? Or do you think we've got enough sort of resource on the property to maintain the service improvements?

好的。Jamie，如果我可以再追問一下。就目前的人力規劃來看，你們預期會在今年持續增加人頭嗎？還是你覺得我們現有的資源已足以維持服務改善？

I would say we are continuing to qualify conductors every week. We still have another 600 folks out there in training out in the field and some in Atlanta. And what we're doing as we move forward -- now remember, the retention rate has not been all that good with the new hires. So if we continue to work on that retention rate, and we have a 10% all out with respect to just regular attrition as we move forward. I'm looking for another few hundred folks onto our headcount to get us into vacation season as we move forward and some of the growth that Kevin and the team see as we continue to move into the year.

我會說，我們每週都在持續讓列車長（conductors）取得資格。我們仍有另外 600 位同仁在外地現場受訓，還有一些在亞特蘭大。接下來我們在推進時——請記得，新進人員的留任率其實不算好。所以如果我們能持續改善留任率，而且在往前走的過程中，僅就一般自然流失（attrition）而言大約有 10% 的流出。我希望再增加幾百位人力到我們的編制，以便我們進入接下來的休假旺季，以及因應 Kevin 和團隊看到的、我們在今年持續推進時的一些成長。

So I'm comfortable with the headcount we have now, while the vacation season is low, but over the next few months, we're going to see that spike come up. And the way that we are guiding into that or gliding into that, our numbers are going to be able to hold up or what we need to not only continue where we are with our metrics, but to actually continue to improve on them as we move into the year.

所以，在休假季還沒起來、目前相對低的時候，我對我們現在的人力規模感到放心；但接下來幾個月，我們會看到那個高峰上來。而我們引導或平順地進入那段期間的方式，會讓我們的人力數字能撐得住、也能符合需求，不僅能維持我們目前的各項指標，還能在今年推進過程中持續改善。

So we are -- it's probably one of the first times in a couple of years. I've been on one of these calls, and I can say we're comfortable that our headcount is at a good spot and continuing to move into a good spot as we move into the year.

所以我們——這大概是近幾年來第一次，我參加這種電話會議時可以說，我們對目前的人力規模感到滿意，而且隨著今年推進，也會持續走向更好的位置。

We'll take our next question from Allison Poliniak with Wells Fargo.

我們的下一個問題來自富國銀行（Wells Fargo）的 Allison Poliniak。

Just want to circle back to that last question a little bit more. Joe, you had talked about some of the processes in doing business easier with rails. Could you maybe expand on that a little bit? Do you feel like in these customer surveys, the ease of doing business with rail is sort of a key limitation right now for some of that structural share gain? And is that something that's maybe within the next 2 to 3 years that you guys can attack that? Or is it much longer-term opportunity there?

我想再回到剛才那個問題多問一點。Joe，你提到一些流程，讓與鐵路合作做生意更容易。你能否再多展開說明一下？你是否覺得在這些客戶調查中，「與鐵路做生意的便利性」目前是限制某些結構性市占提升的一個關鍵瓶頸？而這是否是你們在未來 2 到 3 年內可以著手攻克的？還是說這更偏向長期機會？

Yes, thanks. It's a great opportunity. And we do need to make it easier to do business. We recognize and we referenced that in our commentary tonight. I mean you think about the level of visibility that we have in the rail industry compared to packaged goods and UPS, FedEx, those kind of things. We have to improve in that area, and we will improve in that area.

是的，謝謝。這是一個很大的機會。我們確實需要讓做生意更容易。我們也認知到這點，並且今晚在我們的說明中也提到了。你想想鐵路產業的可視性（visibility）相較於包裝商品以及 UPS、FedEx 這類公司。我們必須在那個領域改善，而且我們會改善。

It's an industry issue as well as a CSX issue. That's an example. How do we get even more predictable and give more visibility to our performance and et cetera. So there's a number of ways we need to improve to improve the customer experience in our business, make it easier to do business with us. Kevin referenced, we've got some new things in ShipCSX to help with calculations for emissions reduction and those kind of things. How do we keep helping customers get better and be able to use our systems better and be able to work with those better.

這既是產業議題，也是 CSX 的議題。這就是一個例子。我們要如何變得更可預測，並對我們的表現提供更多可視性等等。因此，我們有很多方式需要改進，以提升我們業務中的客戶體驗，讓與我們做生意更容易。Kevin 提到，我們在 ShipCSX 上推出了一些新功能，協助計算減排（emissions reduction）等事項。我們要如何持續幫助客戶做得更好、能更好地使用我們的系統，並更順暢地與之協作。

There's a number of ways we can make that happen. At the end of the day, the thing they want most from us, of course, is to be there on time and to deliver on time and to be reliable in doing that. So that's where obviously where our focus is. But clearly, we can make it easier for our customers to do business with us, and we can provide more information and visibility and that's some of the things that the industry is working on.

有很多方式可以做到。歸根結底，他們最希望我們做到的，當然是準時到位、準時交付，並且在這方面可靠。因此那顯然是我們的重點。但很清楚的是，我們可以讓客戶更容易與我們做生意，也可以提供更多資訊與可視性，而這也是產業正在推動的一些事情。

Our next question comes from Walter Spracklin with RBC Capital Markets.

下一個問題來自 RBC Capital Markets 的 Walter Spracklin。

My question for Kevin, looking back now at Quality Trucking, I know this was a little bit of an experiment when you made that purchase, and I see in your CapEx plan you're devoting a bit of capital towards it. So just curious as to what your take has been on it now that it's been under your umbrella for a little while now. Is it by calling it out in CapEx, are you expanding the fleet? Are you strategically looking at growing your trucking operation relative to your rail operation? And could you be looking for any other avenues outside of the company and from an M&A perspective into that trucking space if you see those opportunities pop up here in 2023?

我想問 Kevin 一個問題，回頭看 Quality Trucking，我知道你當初收購時這有點像是一個實驗，而我也看到你在資本支出（CapEx）計畫中撥了一些資金給它。所以我很好奇，在它納入你們體系一段時間之後，你現在對它的看法是什麼？你在 CapEx 中特別點出它，是因為你們在擴充車隊嗎？你們是否在策略上考慮相對於鐵路業務來擴大卡車運輸業務？另外，如果你們在 2023 年看到機會出現，從併購（M&A）的角度，你們是否也會考慮在公司外部尋找其他切入卡車運輸領域的途徑？

Yes. I mean, first of all, quality is a very, very unique asset in a lot of ways. First it touches our most valuable market in our largest market, which is chemicals. And I can't tell you how insightful. They have different contexts than we do on the trucking side, where those purchase managers have never dealt with truck and introducing that product to them has been eye-opening and it's something very, very new. When we talk about the CapEx related to QC this year is really a rail product -- it's not more trucks that we're investing in. It's the ISO tanks that go on the railroad. And I am -- if Randy was sitting here today talking about it, he is very, very happy with how it's gone so far.

是的。我的意思是，首先，Quality 在很多方面都是非常、非常獨特的資產。第一，它觸及我們最大市場中最有價值的市場，也就是化學品。我無法形容這有多具洞察力。他們在卡車運輸端的脈絡與我們不同，那些採購經理從未接觸過卡車運輸，把這個產品介紹給他們讓人眼界大開，而且這是非常、非常新的東西。當我們談到今年與 QC 相關的 CapEx，其實是鐵路產品——不是我們要投資更多卡車。是用在鐵路上的 ISO 罐箱。而且我——如果 Randy 今天坐在這裡談這件事，他對目前的進展非常、非常滿意。

The customer uptake has been pretty incredible so far. We've seen a lot of success. And our only issue is we haven't gotten them fast enough. And so that's a good problem to have, and we're going to continue to take delivery of those. Randy has come from the trucking market for a long time, and he has even been surprised about the service product and how quickly we can turn these assets for him on each side. So things have gone extraordinarily well there.

到目前為止，客戶採用的速度相當驚人。我們看到很多成功。我們唯一的問題是我們拿到它們的速度不夠快。所以這是個好問題，我們會持續接收交付。Randy 長期來自卡車運輸市場，連他都對這個服務產品以及我們在兩端能多快周轉這些資產感到驚訝。所以那邊的進展非常出色。

The intermodal network is ideal to convert a lot of this traffic that moves over truck today. It's meeting the customer requirements, and we're getting more and more demand from those customers out there as it gets into the market. So that's really where the focus and the uptick in the CapEx that we talked about earlier are coming on that rail product that we're extraordinarily excited about.

這個聯運網路非常適合把目前以卡車運輸的許多貨流轉換過來。它能滿足客戶需求，而且隨著它進入市場，我們從外部客戶那裡得到越來越多的需求。所以這就是我們先前提到的 CapEx 增加與重點所在——都在那個我們非常興奮的鐵路產品上。

And we just think that the chemical customers, in particular, are looking for a holistic solution and it's pretty powerful to go in there and be able to talk and look at their network and tell them what we think fits from a rail perspective and what fits from a trucking perspective.

我們也認為，特別是化學品客戶正在尋求一個整體性的解決方案；能夠進去與他們對談、檢視他們的網路，並告訴他們我們認為哪些從鐵路角度適合、哪些從卡車角度適合，這是相當有力的。

And just when you think about quality, even on the operating side, we're utilizing our current terminals -- and yes, that CapEx is exactly right, where we're buying the ISO tanks and we're preparing. But everything else is already there, that fixed asset is there. So this -- when we went into this, Kevin and I were somewhat hand-in-hand looking at this business thing, is this what we want? Is this going to work, and it's really falling in really well. And I would say -- on the asset side is just we didn't get the ISO tanks. We'd like to get them quicker. We'd like to get more of them because there's more business. I believe that Randy and his team can get working with Kevin and his team -- and our intermodal terminals have the capacity and the trains have the capacity. So it's just -- it's a great product on the operating side and very easy for us to move as well. So it fits really, really well.

而且當你想到 Quality，即使在營運端，我們也在利用現有的場站——是的，那個 CapEx 完全正確，我們是在購買 ISO 罐箱並做準備。但其他一切都已經到位，那些固定資產都在。所以——當我們進入這個業務時，Kevin 和我某種程度上是手牽手一起看這門生意：這是不是我們想要的？這會不會成功？而它確實非常順利地落地。我會說——在資產端，我們只是沒有拿到 ISO 罐箱；我們希望更快拿到，也希望拿到更多，因為有更多業務。我相信 Randy 和他的團隊可以和 Kevin 與他的團隊一起推動——我們的聯運場站有產能、列車也有產能。所以——在營運端這是一個很棒的產品，對我們來說也非常容易運作與移動。因此它非常、非常契合。

Our next question comes from Jeff Kauffman with Vertical Research Partners.

下一個問題來自 Vertical Research Partners 的 Jeff Kauffman。

I'll just be quick, Sean. You were talking about employee levels, and it looks like cost inflation on the new contract, probably around 5% per employee. Year-on-year employees about 7%, 8% for the first half of 2023. So if I look away from fourth quarter where the incentive comp helped lower that and I looked at kind of what's the right run rate for modeling for labor cost inflation. Should I be thinking about something in the high single-digit, 10 percent-ish range for the first half of the year before productivity offsets that?

Sean，我簡單問一下。你剛才談到員工人數，看起來新合約帶來的成本通膨，每位員工大概在 5% 左右。2023 年上半年員工人數年增約 7%、8%。所以如果我先不看第四季（當時獎勵性薪酬有助於把數字壓低），而是看勞動成本通膨建模時比較合理的運行水準（run rate），我是否應該把上半年、在生產力抵消之前的勞動成本通膨，想成是高個位數、約 10% 左右？

Yes, Jeff. I think on a gross basis, right, on a full year basis, the impact of inflation on the labor line is in that ballpark, right, mid-single digits. And if you look at the headcount, if we didn't hire anybody additional all year long, we'd be up 4% year-over-year. Jamie talked about adding a couple of hundred to the head count, so call that 5% up year-over-year. So there's your 10%, but we are confident that as we -- as the network continues to spend, we'll be able to drive some efficiency on the labor line will also cycle as you alluded to, the true-up that we had to make in the third quarter on the back wages. So that will be a little bit of an offset.

是的，Jeff。我認為以總額（gross）來看，對吧，以全年來看，通膨對人力成本項目的影響大致就在那個區間，約中個位數。如果你看人頭數，假設我們全年都不再額外招人，年增會是 4%。Jamie 談到會增加幾百名人力，那就算年增 5%。所以加起來就是你的 10%。但我們有信心，隨著——隨著網路持續加速運轉，我們能在人力成本項目上推動一些效率；同時也會如你所提到的，第三季因補發欠薪而做的調整（true-up）會在比較基期上循環掉，所以會形成一些抵消。

All right. So that will be a little better in the second half. But I guess at the end of the day, how much of that labor cost do you think you can offset through productivity? Is there a target out there? Do we just kind of see what we can achieve?

好。所以下半年會好一些。但歸根結底，你們認為能透過生產力抵消多少勞動成本？有沒有一個目標？還是我們就看看能做到什麼程度？

Well, yes, we've got targets and we're going to reduce over time. We're going to reduce crude travel and some of the ancillary costs that go along with that as the network spins faster and we'll be able to offset a good chunk of it, offsetting 5% inflation or sort of in that range and another 5% head count would be a lot in a single year. So we're on the right track.

嗯，是的，我們有目標，而且會隨時間降低。我們會降低非必要差旅（crude travel）以及隨之而來的一些附帶成本，因為網路運轉更快後，我們就能抵消其中相當一部分。要在一年內同時抵消約 5% 的通膨（或大概那個範圍）再加上另外 5% 的人頭增加，會是很大的挑戰。所以我們正走在正確的軌道上。

Thank you. And that does conclude today's presentation. Thank you for your participation, and you may now disconnect.

謝謝。今天的簡報到此結束。感謝各位的參與，您現在可以中斷連線。