CSX Corporation (CSX) 2023 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good day, everyone, and welcome to the First Quarter 2023 CSX Corporation's Earnings Conference Call. Today's call is being recorded. And I would now like to turn the conference over to Matthew Korn, Head of Investor Relations. Please go ahead, sir.

各位好，歡迎參加 CSX Corporation 2023 年第一季財報電話會議。今天的電話會議將進行錄音。現在我想把會議交給投資人關係主管 Matthew Korn。先生，請開始。

Thank you, operator. Hello, everyone, and welcome to our first quarter call. Joining me this afternoon are Joe Hinrichs, President and Chief Executive Officer; Jamie Boychuk, Executive Vice President of Operations; Kevin Boone, Executive Vice President of Sales and Marketing; and Sean Pelkey, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer.

謝謝，接線員。各位好，歡迎參加我們的第一季電話會議。今天下午與我一同出席的有：總裁兼執行長 Joe Hinrichs；營運執行副總裁 Jamie Boychuk；銷售與行銷執行副總裁 Kevin Boone；以及執行副總裁兼財務長 Sean Pelkey。

In the presentation accompanying this call, you will find our forward-looking disclosure on Slide 2 followed by our non-GAAP disclosure on Slide 3.

在本次電話會議隨附的簡報中，您會在第 2 頁看到我們的前瞻性聲明揭露，接著在第 3 頁看到我們的非 GAAP 揭露。

And with that, it's my pleasure to introduce our President and Chief Executive Officer, Mr. Joe Hinrichs.

那麼，我很榮幸介紹我們的總裁兼執行長 Joe Hinrichs 先生。

All right. Good evening, everyone. Thank you, Matthew, and thank you all for joining our conference call. Working together, the ONE CSX team delivered a strong first quarter, driven by solid pricing as well as volume growth in our merchandise and coal businesses. With sufficient resources in place, we are able to use the benefits of our scaled railroad model to deliver improvement in our customer service performance that are driving real tangible financial results. Our network is running well, and we intend to do even better and show that CSX can sustain reliable service over time, which is essential for us to profitably grow our railroad. 2023 has already proven to be a very active year. One of our top priorities after the national union agreements were finalized last December was to address the matter of Paid sick leave for our union employees. I am very pleased that CSX demonstrated important leadership here. Starting in February, we were the first U.S. class 1 railroad to reach new sick leave agreements with many of our local unions that would meaningfully improve our railroad's quality of life. Our view is simple, we are a service business and we need our employees to be positively engaged in order to provide our customers with excellent service that attracts them to our railroads.

好的。各位晚安。謝謝你，Matthew，也謝謝各位參加我們的電話會議。ONE CSX 團隊通力合作，交出強勁的第一季成績，主要受惠於穩健的定價，以及我們一般貨運與煤炭業務的運量成長。在資源配置充足的情況下，我們得以運用規模化鐵路營運模式的優勢，提升客戶服務表現，並帶來實質且可衡量的財務成果。我們的路網運行良好，我們也打算做得更好，並證明 CSX 能夠長期維持可靠服務，這對我們以獲利方式擴大鐵路業務至關重要。2023 年至今已證明是非常活躍的一年。去年 12 月全國性工會協議定案後，我們的首要任務之一，就是處理工會員工的帶薪病假議題。我非常高興 CSX 在此展現了重要的領導力。自 2 月起，我們成為美國第一家一級鐵路公司（Class I railroad），與多個地方工會達成新的病假協議，將實質改善我們鐵路員工的生活品質。我們的觀點很簡單：我們是服務業，我們需要員工以正向投入的態度工作，才能為客戶提供卓越服務，吸引他們選擇我們的鐵路運輸。

Building a work environment where employees feel respected and valued is not just the right thing to do, it's also very good for business benefiting our shareholders as well. Another serious matter that has attracted a lot of attention to our industry over this last quarter has been the issue of safety. Statistics are clear, when measured by the number of accidents or injuries relative to the enormous amount of [ton oils] that our trains travel. (inaudible) railroads are very safe when compared to other forms of transportation. We are very proud of our excellent safety record at CSX, but we know that we cannot be complacent. We owe it to all our stakeholders to push ourselves to even be better. Later on this call [Jamie] will give more details about the specific proactive steps we have been taking to make CSX safer. I have also been actively involved in discussions with our leaders in Washington and the across states our network about some of the legislation that has recently been proposed. They know that it's better for our economy, our environment and our communities for railroads to move a greater share of the nation's freight.

打造一個讓員工感到被尊重與被重視的工作環境，不僅是正確的事，對業務也非常有利，同時也能讓股東受益。過去一季，另一個引起業界高度關注的重大議題是安全。統計數據很清楚：若以事故或受傷的數量相對於我們列車行駛的龐大 [ton oils] 來衡量，（聽不清）與其他運輸方式相比，鐵路非常安全。我們對 CSX 優異的安全紀錄深感自豪，但我們也知道不能自滿。我們有責任對所有利害關係人持續要求自己做得更好。稍後在本次電話會議中，[Jamie] 將更詳細說明我們為提升 CSX 安全性所採取的具體主動措施。我也一直積極參與與華盛頓以及我們路網所涵蓋各州領導人的討論，針對近期提出的一些立法提案交換意見。他們知道，讓鐵路承擔更大比例的全國貨運，對我們的經濟、環境與社區都更有利。

They also know that CSX is eager to be part of solutions that are effective, data-driven and will make our whole industry safer. We do not want safety performance to be a competitive advantage for CSX, but wanting to be something our entire industry is proud of. We have been encouraged by our conversations with senior policy leaders and we'll continue to engage with them in the months ahead, sharing best practices and building on our common ground.

他們也知道，CSX 渴望成為有效、以數據為基礎、並能讓整個產業更安全的解決方案的一部分。我們不希望安全表現成為 CSX 的競爭優勢，而是希望它成為整個產業都引以為傲的共同成果。我們與資深政策領導人的對話令人鼓舞，未來幾個月我們將持續與他們互動，分享最佳實務並在共同基礎上持續深化。

We are confident that the industry will emerge in this period stronger, more aligned and better at sharing safety best practices. Now let's turn to our presentation to review the highlights of the first quarter. We moved nearly 1.5 million carloads in the first quarter and generate over $3.7 billion in revenue, which was 9% higher than the previous year. Operating income increased 14% year-over-year to $1.46 billion, and our operating ratio was 60.5%, which includes the OR impact of the quality carrier destruction business, as we've discussed in the past.

我們有信心，產業將在這段期間變得更強健、更一致，並更善於分享安全最佳實務。現在讓我們回到簡報，回顧第一季重點。我們在第一季運送了接近 150 萬車皮（carloads），創造超過 37 億美元營收，較去年成長 9%。營業利益年增 14% 至 14.6 億美元；營業比率（Operating Ratio）為 60.5%，其中包含我們過去曾討論過的 quality carrier destruction 業務對 OR 的影響。

Finally, earnings per share increased 23% to $0.48. When I came to CSX last fall, we were very clear with our intention to build on this company's excellent operating model by strengthening our relationships with our employees and serving our customers better. It is still early but you will hear clear examples of how we are starting to achieve this as Kevin, Jamie and Sean talk about the details, what was a very strong quarter.

最後，每股盈餘年增 23% 至 0.48 美元。去年秋天我加入 CSX 時，我們非常清楚表明：要在公司卓越的營運模式基礎上，進一步強化與員工的關係，並更好地服務客戶。現在仍屬早期階段，但當 Kevin、Jamie 與 Sean 進一步說明這個非常強勁季度的細節時，您將聽到我們開始達成這些目標的明確例證。

Now let me turn it over to our team.

現在我把時間交給我們的團隊。

Thank you, Joe, and good afternoon, everyone. Every quarter, you hear us emphasize the importance of safety on our network. This is a fundamental part of our culture and defines how we execute our operating plan. We didn't take shortcuts, we don't compromise, and we teach this mindset to every 1 of our new hires and continually reemphasize it to all of our employees.

謝謝你，Joe，各位下午好。每一季你們都會聽到我們強調路網安全的重要性。這是我們文化的根本，也定義了我們如何執行營運計畫。我們不走捷徑、不妥協，並把這樣的思維教給每一位新進員工，同時也持續向所有員工反覆強調。

In this slide, you will see some of the real proactive steps that we are taking to keep our network running safely. In 2023, we are installing 53 additional hot box detectors across our network. These added detectors will reduce the average spacing from 16.2 miles to 14.9 miles. At CSX, these detectors identify high-bearing temperatures, but also transmit real-time data for trend analysis. So we can not only tell when a bearing is hot and a train needs to stop, but we can also use the data to predict bearings and issues before they reach critical temperatures. We're also continuing to integrate newly hired employees into our safety culture, which begins on day 1. Newly hired employees attend extensive training at our railroad Education and Development Institute in Atlanta.

在這張投影片中，您將看到我們為確保路網安全運行所採取的一些真正主動的措施。2023 年，我們將在全路網額外安裝 53 座熱軸箱偵測器（hot box detectors）。新增後，平均間距將由 16.2 英里縮短至 14.9 英里。在 CSX，這些偵測器可辨識軸承高溫，同時也會傳送即時數據以供趨勢分析。因此，我們不僅能判斷何時軸承過熱、列車需要停車，也能利用數據在軸承與相關問題達到臨界溫度之前進行預測。我們也持續將新進員工融入我們的安全文化，且從第一天就開始。新進員工會在亞特蘭大的鐵路教育與發展學院接受密集訓練。

The robust classroom, combined with field-based training gives these new employees the tools they need to operate safely in their new roles. Autonomous track assessment cars, commonly called ATACs, are also used as part of our proactive safety plan. These look and run like regular box cars that are loaded with advanced technology. These cars operate on our regular trains and gather critical inspection data that allow us to closely monitor track conditions. Lastly, we are committed to being supportive partners in the communities in which we live and operate.

扎實的課堂訓練結合現場訓練，讓新進員工具備在新職務中安全作業所需的工具。自動化軌道評估車（Autonomous track assessment cars，常稱 ATACs）也是我們主動安全計畫的一部分。這些車輛外觀與運行方式類似一般棚車（box cars），但搭載先進技術設備。它們會編入我們的常規列車運行並蒐集關鍵檢測數據，使我們能夠密切監控軌道狀況。最後，我們也致力於在我們生活與營運的社區中成為支持性的合作夥伴。

That is why we dedicate so much effort to developing relationships with first responders in those communities and teaching them how to properly respond to incidents, especially those with hazmat materials. We have a dedicated fleet of railcars, including 4 tank cars that are specifically designed and used to offer multi-day training sessions. This is a program we have run for many years. And in 2022, we trained nearly 4,000 first responders. Turning to the next slide. The FRA personal injury rate ticked down sequentially, while the FRA train accident rate increased slightly. However, both measures are up year-over-year.

因此，我們投入大量心力與這些社區的第一線應變人員建立關係，並教導他們如何正確應對事故，尤其是涉及危險物質（hazmat）材料的事件。我們擁有一支專用的鐵路車輛編組，其中包含 4 輛專為提供多日訓練課程而設計與使用的槽車（tank cars）。這是一項我們已執行多年的計畫。而在 2022 年，我們訓練了近 4,000 名第一線應變人員。接著看下一張投影片。FRA 人身傷害率較前一季小幅下降，而 FRA 列車事故率略有上升。然而，兩項指標皆較去年同期上升。

It's important to consider that because of the success of our recent hiring efforts, we have a higher percentage of newer employees -- as they gain experience and learn from federal railroaders, we are confident that the frequency of these incidents will decline. Now turning to Slide 9. Operating performance has improved significantly. With the appropriate resources in place, we are doing what we do best, effectively executing our operating plan. The team's ability to deliver these operating results is a true testament to the tough and hard work that we are doing as an operating team and a plan that shows no other than what we can do here at CSX.

需要注意的是，由於我們近期招募工作的成功，我們的新進員工占比更高——隨著他們累積經驗並向資深鐵路員工學習，我們有信心這些事件的發生頻率將會下降。現在請看第 9 頁。營運表現已顯著改善。在適當資源到位的情況下，我們正在做我們最擅長的事：有效執行營運計畫。團隊能夠交出這些營運成果，充分證明我們作為營運團隊所投入的艱辛努力，也證明這項計畫清楚展現了我們在 CSX 能做到的事。

Most importantly, the dedication that's given by all of our railroaders. I cannot thank our operating employees enough for overcoming the resource challenges and delivering such solid performance for our customers. Carload trip performance of 86% reached an all-time record level this quarter. while intermodal trip plan performance of 96% matched a record high, while the team is pleased with these results, we'll keep improving. In fact, both measures have continued to improve sequentially into the second quarter. I'm happy with the compliments and support we have received from customers regulators and shareholders on our service improvement, but we are not done yet. As Joe said, our goal is to keep improving our service and show that we can sustain this over time so that we can drive long-term growth for CSX. With that, I will turn it over to Kevin to discuss the top line results.

最重要的是，我們所有鐵路同仁所展現的投入與奉獻。我對我們的營運同仁克服資源挑戰、並為客戶交出如此穩健的表現，感謝之情難以言喻。本季整車（carload）行程達成率 86% 創下歷史新高；而聯運（intermodal）行程計畫達成率 96% 也追平歷史高點。雖然團隊對這些成果感到欣慰，我們仍將持續精進。事實上，這兩項指標在第二季仍持續呈現逐季改善。我很高興我們在服務改善方面獲得客戶、監管機關與股東的肯定與支持，但我們還沒有完成。如同 Joe 所說，我們的目標是持續提升服務，並證明我們能長期維持這樣的表現，從而推動 CSX 的長期成長。接下來我把時間交給 Kevin，請他說明營收端的結果。

Thank you, Jamie. We are very pleased with our merchandise performance this quarter. Revenue increased 13%, benefiting from an 8% increase in revenue per unit and a 4% increase in volume. We are seeing some encouraging signs as customers start to respond to our improved service and reduced cycle times. The team is focused on combining best-in-class service with creative solutions to identify new growth opportunities and gain wallet share with existing customers. While we did see positive growth in automotive, customer production issues impacted volumes in the quarter.

謝謝你，Jamie。我們對本季的商品運輸（merchandise）表現非常滿意。營收成長 13%，主要受惠於每單位營收提升 8% 以及運量成長 4%。我們看到一些令人鼓舞的跡象：客戶開始對我們改善的服務與縮短的週轉時間做出回應。團隊專注於結合同級最佳的服務與創新解決方案，以辨識新的成長機會，並在既有客戶中提升錢包份額（wallet share）。雖然汽車業務呈現正成長，但客戶端的生產問題在本季影響了運量。

On the positive side, we see production issues moderating and expect a strong outlook for automotive volumes through the remainder of the year. Minerals and Metals both outperformed, driven largely by very strong aggregates in steel demand. Pricing was up year-over-year as we benefited from favorable contract repricing and higher fuel surcharge. For the remainder of the year, we will continue to see benefits from a supportive pricing environment and improved rail service. While the economic outlook remains uncertain, we continue to see positive momentum in many of our merchandise segments as the team focuses on the growth drivers that we can control.

正面來看，我們看到生產問題正在緩解，並預期汽車運量在今年剩餘期間展望強勁。礦物與金屬兩個品類表現皆優於預期，主要由鋼鐵需求帶動的骨材（aggregates）需求非常強勁所驅動。價格較去年同期上升，受惠於有利的合約重新議價以及較高的燃油附加費。展望今年剩餘期間，我們將持續受惠於有利的定價環境與改善的鐵路服務。儘管經濟前景仍不明朗，隨著團隊聚焦於我們可控的成長驅動因素，我們在多個商品運輸細分市場仍看到正向動能。

It's still early but we are encouraged by our ability to convert improved service into new business wins in segments such as auto, minerals and food products. There remains a significant opportunity to win share from truck across our merchandise portfolio. Turning to Slide 12. First quarter coal revenue increased 19% on 19% higher volume and flat revenue per unit. Export volumes were strong as we leverage improved cycle times and improved production and performance at the origin mines. We also benefited as we lap the effects of reduced capacity at our Curtis Bay terminal.

雖然仍在早期階段，但我們對於能將改善的服務轉化為汽車、礦物與食品等領域的新業務勝利感到鼓舞。在我們的商品運輸組合中，從卡車運輸手中爭取市占仍有顯著機會。接著看第 12 張投影片。第一季煤炭營收成長 19%，來自運量增加 19% 且每單位營收持平。出口運量表現強勁，因我們善用改善的週轉時間，以及起運端礦區的產量與作業績效提升。我們也受惠於 Curtis Bay 碼頭先前產能降低影響的基期效應消退。

Our domestic shipments also improved on utility restocking demand and improved rail capacity. International met coal benchmarks remained strong over the quarter and now sits just below $300 per metric ton, which continues to support strong production levels. Looking ahead, the international coal market continues to be supported by healthy commodity prices that should drive positive year-over-year volume growth through the remainder of the year. While the domestic market could face a more challenging backdrop should natural gas prices remain low.

我們的國內出貨也因公用事業補庫需求與鐵路運能改善而提升。國際冶金煤（met coal）基準價格在本季維持強勢，目前略低於每公噸 300 美元，持續支撐強勁的生產水準。展望未來，國際煤炭市場仍受到健康的大宗商品價格支撐，預期將帶動今年剩餘期間運量年增呈正成長。不過，若天然氣價格維持低檔，國內市場可能面臨較具挑戰的環境。

Turning to intermodal on Slide 13. First quarter revenue decreased by 5% as a 9% decrease in volume more than offset a 5% increase in revenue per unit. Most of this volume decline was due to weakness in international intermodal markets, which, as we expected, have been heavily affected by slowing import activity as demand softened and retail inventories remained elevated. Looking forward, while the intermodal market currently remains challenged, we do expect second half year-over-year headwinds to moderate. The team has a number of initiatives underway to continue to drive truck conversion by introducing new lanes of service where there is market demand.

接著看第 13 張投影片的聯運業務。第一季營收下滑 5%，因運量下降 9% 的影響大於每單位營收上升 5% 的貢獻。這次運量下滑多數來自國際聯運市場疲弱；如我們所預期，進口活動放緩、需求轉弱且零售庫存仍偏高，對其造成顯著影響。往前看，雖然聯運市場目前仍具挑戰，我們預期下半年年對年逆風將趨於緩和。團隊正推動多項措施，透過在有市場需求之處推出新的服務路線（lanes），持續促進由卡車轉運至鐵路。

Now finally, turning to Slide 14. Many of you are aware of the major market shift developing over the last few years as more companies look to diversify their supply chain and bring capacity closer to their key end markets. We have been encouraged by the acceleration in activity with manufacturers of all times, announcing plans and committing capital to build capacity in the Eastern U.S.

最後，來到第 14 張投影片。各位多數都注意到，過去幾年市場正在出現重大轉變：越來越多公司希望分散供應鏈，並將產能移近其主要終端市場。我們也受到鼓舞，看到各類型製造商的活動加速，紛紛宣布計畫並投入資本，在美國東部建立產能。

For CSX, this represents a great opportunity. Our network connects the major population centers of the Northeast with the fast-growing areas of the Southeast that are highly attractive for companies looking to expand. The mission of our industrial development team is to partner with these companies and provide them with a rail serve location where they can leverage the benefits of the CSX network and industry-leading service. We continue to invest in our select site program that has expanded to include a wider range of rail serve site opportunities.

對 CSX 而言，這代表一個絕佳機會。我們的路網連結東北部主要人口中心與東南部快速成長地區，對於尋求擴張的企業極具吸引力。我們產業開發團隊的使命，是與這些公司合作，提供可由鐵路服務的選址，使其能運用 CSX 路網與業界領先的服務優勢。我們持續投資於精選場址（select site）計畫，並已擴大納入更多元的可由鐵路服務之場址機會。

Combined with new technology enhancements, this will allow us to capture industrial projects of all sizes by offering shovel-ready development sites with access to CSX network. As you can see on the slide, we are excited about the success we are seeing. In 2022 alone, our customer partners brought nearly 90 new facilities online, representing $8.2 billion of total investment across our network and on our short line partners. The map shows how broadly these in-service projects stretch across our service area. Our pipeline remains robust with over 500 projects in process across our entire industrial development pipeline, and we're adding to this total each month.

結合新的技術強化後，我們將能透過提供可立即動工（shovel-ready）、且可連接 CSX 路網的開發用地，來承接各種規模的產業專案。如投影片所示，我們對目前看到的成功感到振奮。僅在 2022 年，我們的客戶夥伴就讓近 90 座新設施投入營運，代表在我們路網及短線鐵路夥伴範圍內合計 82 億美元的總投資。地圖顯示這些已投運專案在我們服務區域內分布之廣。我們的案源管線仍然強勁，整體產業開發管線中有超過 500 個專案正在推進，且每個月都在增加。

Over time, we expect the new business that these projects represent to be a key driver to our growth algorithm as we help our partners bring in an increasing number of expansion projects onto our network, driving volumes and revenue higher. I would like to thank the entire team for all of their efforts across our growth initiatives. We're very excited about the momentum we are building and the engagement as we partner with our customers to grow together. Now I'll turn it over to Sean to discuss the financials.

長期而言，我們預期這些專案所代表的新業務，將成為我們成長方程式（growth algorithm）的關鍵驅動因素；我們將協助合作夥伴把越來越多的擴建專案導入我們的路網，推升運量與營收。我想感謝整個團隊在各項成長計畫上的努力。我們對正在建立的動能，以及與客戶攜手共成長的投入程度感到非常振奮。接下來我把時間交給 Sean，請他說明財務表現。

Thank you, Kevin, and good afternoon. Looking at the first quarter results, revenue increased 9% or $300 million on merchandise and coal volume growth, strong pricing and higher fuel recovery. Operating income was up 14% to $1.5 billion as top line growth outpaced several expense headwinds, which I'll discuss in more detail on the following slide. Interest and other expense was $7 million higher compared to the prior year and income tax expense increased by $47 million on higher pretax earnings. Net earnings increased 15% to $1 billion, while EPS grew 23%. Let's now turn to the next slide and take a closer look at expenses.

謝謝你，Kevin，各位下午好。回顧第一季結果，受惠於商品運輸與煤炭運量成長、強勁定價以及較高的燃油回收，營收成長 9%（或 3 億美元）。營業利益成長 14% 至 15 億美元，因營收成長幅度超過多項費用逆風；我將在下一張投影片更詳細說明。利息及其他費用較去年增加 700 萬美元，所得稅費用則因稅前盈餘較高而增加 4,700 萬美元。淨利成長 15% 至 10 億美元，而每股盈餘（EPS）成長 23%。現在我們看下一張投影片，更仔細檢視費用。

Total first quarter expense increased $111 million compared to the prior year. This includes about $65 million of inflation headwinds as well as an $85 million impact from higher fuel and depreciation combined with lower real estate gains. Now turning to the individual line items. Labor and fringe expense increased $31 million as the impacts of additional head count and inflation were partially offset by lower incentive compensation expense. PS&O expense increased $13 million primarily due to inflation, the inclusion of Pan Am operations and scheduled locomotive overhauls.

第一季總費用較去年增加 1.11 億美元。其中包含約 6,500 萬美元的通膨逆風，以及燃油與折舊上升、再加上不動產處分利益降低所帶來合計 8,500 萬美元的影響。接著看各個費用項目。人事與福利費用增加 3,100 萬美元，主因為增加人力與通膨影響，但部分被較低的獎酬激勵費用所抵銷。PS&O（採購、服務與其他）費用增加 1,300 萬美元，主要因通膨、納入 Pan Am 營運，以及例行機車大修。

These impacts were partially offset by a $46 million benefit due to an insurance recovery arising from a customer facility outage several years ago as well as lower intermodal costs as congestion eases. There were also several smaller line item impacts within PS&O that were greater than expected this quarter and should improve sequentially. Depreciation was up $33 million as a result of last year's equipment study as well as a larger asset base. And fuel expense also increased by $33 million due to a higher gallon price and a 3% increase in gross ton miles.

上述影響部分被 4,600 萬美元的利益所抵銷，該利益來自數年前某客戶設施停擺所引發的保險理賠回收，以及隨著壅塞緩解而降低的聯運成本。PS&O 內也有數個較小的費用項目，本季影響大於預期，且應會在後續季度逐季改善。折舊增加 3,300 萬美元，係因去年設備研究結果以及資產基礎擴大所致。燃油費用亦增加 3,300 萬美元，主因每加侖價格較高，以及總噸英里（gross ton miles）增加 3%。

Equipment and rents improved by $18 million, benefiting from increased fluidity and faster car higher days per load across all markets. Property gains were $19 million unfavorable in the quarter due primarily to lapping prior year gains from the Virginia real estate transaction. Network and congestion related savings were evident within rents and across intermodal terminal expenses this quarter, and we expect sustained network performance to drive further efficiency savings through the year.

設備與租賃費用改善 1,800 萬美元，受惠於流暢度提升，以及在各市場中每次裝載的車輛周轉更快、每車日數（car higher days per load）表現更佳。本季不動產處分利益較不利 1,900 萬美元，主要因去年維吉尼亞不動產交易的處分利益基期效應。與路網及壅塞相關的節省在本季的租賃費用與聯運場站費用中均有體現；我們預期，隨著路網績效維持穩定，全年將帶來更多效率節省。

Now turning to cash flow on Slide 18. CSX generated over $800 million of free cash flow in the quarter. reflecting the impact of cash payments for retroactive wages and bonuses paid to union employees. Adding back these payments, free cash flow would have been up slightly versus last year despite higher investments in the business. You'll also recall that CSX has introduced a measure of economic profit called CSX Cash earnings, or CCE, within our long-term incentive compensation. It benefits both our shareholders and the general public when we grow profitably by encouraging the conversion of freight off the highway.

現在轉到第 18 頁投影片的現金流。CSX 本季產生超過 8 億美元的自由現金流，反映了針對工會員工補發薪資與獎金的現金支付影響。若將這些支付加回，自由現金流相較去年將略有上升，儘管我們對業務的投資更高。各位也會記得，CSX 在我們的長期激勵薪酬中導入了一項稱為 CSX 現金盈餘（CSX Cash earnings，或 CCE）的經濟利潤衡量指標。當我們透過鼓勵將貨運從公路轉移出來而實現獲利性成長時，這將同時有利於股東與大眾。

And CCE is aligned with this shared interest by encouraging disciplined high-return capital investments. The calculation can be seen in the appendix. And through Q1, CCE is up $165 million versus the prior year. After fully funding infrastructure investments and strategic projects, CSX returned $1.3 billion to shareholders in the first quarter, including close to $1.1 billion of share repurchases and over $200 million in dividends. Looking forward, we will remain balanced and opportunistic in our approach to returning excess cash to our shareholders. And with that, let me turn it back to Joe for his closing remarks.

而 CCE 透過鼓勵紀律嚴明、具高報酬的資本投資，與這項共同利益保持一致。其計算方式可見於附錄。截至第一季，CCE 較去年同期增加 1.65 億美元。在充分投入基礎設施投資與策略性專案之後，CSX 於第一季向股東回饋 13 億美元，其中包括接近 11 億美元的庫藏股回購，以及超過 2 億美元的股利。展望未來，我們在將多餘現金回饋股東方面，將維持均衡且把握機會的作法。接下來，讓我把時間交回 Joe 做結語。

Thank you. Thank you, Sean. Now let's conclude with some comments on our outlook for 2023, as shown on Slide 20. First, as you heard Kevin describe, we are very pleased with the performance we have seen year-to-date from our merchandise business. Strong demand for grains, metals, Minerals and Automotive, combined with significant new customer wins give us increasing confidence that we will be able to deliver solid volume growth for the year in merchandise. We're also off to a strong start to the year for coal, and we expect continued benefit from healthy export demand, both thermal and met. Our merchandise and coal have met or exceeded our expectations. Intermodal volumes have been below what we anticipated.

謝謝。謝謝你，Sean。現在我們以第 20 頁投影片所示，對 2023 年展望做一些總結性評論。首先，正如你們聽到 Kevin 所描述的，我們對今年迄今在一般貨運（merchandise）業務所看到的表現感到非常滿意。穀物、金屬、礦物與汽車等品類的強勁需求，加上顯著的新客戶贏單，讓我們更有信心今年一般貨運可實現穩健的運量成長。煤炭方面我們也在年初有強勁開局，並預期健康的出口需求（動力煤與冶金煤）將持續帶來助益。我們的一般貨運與煤炭表現已達到或超過預期。聯運（Intermodal）運量則低於我們原先的預期。

We knew the intermodal -- sorry, we knew the international intermodal activity will be down substantially over the first half of the year. And though parts of our domestic business are doing very well, has not been enough to offset the effect of lower imports and elevated inventory.

我們知道聯運——抱歉，我們知道國際聯運活動在上半年將大幅下滑。而且儘管我們的國內業務部分領域表現非常好，但仍不足以抵消進口下滑與庫存偏高所帶來的影響。

Altogether, Intermodal contributes less than 1/3 of our revenues, but it does contribute roughly half of our volume and was a drag on our total volume over the quarter. The softer intermodal performance will make it difficult for our total CSX volume to meet our previous guidance and grow faster than GDP, especially as consensus GDP estimates for 2023 have moved up and are currently at 1.1%. That said, the effect on our business mix is favorable. Revenue ton miles grew by a solid 4% in the first quarter, driven by the strength in merchandise and export coal and we expect revenue ton miles to grow solidly in the low single digits for the full year. The rest of our outlook is consistent with what we told you at the beginning of the year.

整體而言，聯運貢獻的營收不到我們的 1/3，但約貢獻一半的運量，並在本季拖累了我們的總運量。較疲弱的聯運表現將使 CSX 總運量難以達到我們先前的指引、並以快於 GDP 的速度成長，尤其是 2023 年市場共識 GDP 預估已上修，目前為 1.1%。不過，對我們的業務組合而言影響是正面的。第一季營收噸英里（Revenue ton miles）穩健成長 4%，主要由一般貨運與出口煤炭的強勁表現帶動；我們預期全年營收噸英里將以低個位數穩健成長。其餘展望與我們年初向各位說明的內容一致。

We continue to benefit from the favorable pricing environment with customer negotiations supported by our transparency on costs and our improved service products. We still expect supplemental revenues to decline by roughly $300 million compared to last year, with much of that decline in run rate already in (inaudible) in the first quarter. International met coal benchmarks remained very strong over the quarter and spot prices are just below $300 per tonne today, but year-over-year comparisons will get tougher from here. We will continue our efforts to drive higher efficiency and reduce excess costs to counter the inflationary effects in our labor and other operating costs as best we can. So -- the best way for us to support our margin performance will be to drive more merchandise volume and benefit from the powerful operating leverage potential of our network.

我們持續受惠於有利的定價環境；在客戶談判中，我們對成本的透明度以及改善後的服務產品，提供了支撐。我們仍預期補充性收入（supplemental revenues）將較去年下降約 3 億美元，其中多數的下降幅度在第一季已經反映在（聽不清）之中。國際冶金煤基準價格在本季仍維持非常強勁，今日現貨價格略低於每噸 300 美元，但接下來的年增率比較將變得更具挑戰。我們將持續努力提升效率並降低多餘成本，以盡可能抵消人力與其他營運成本的通膨影響。因此——支持我們利潤率表現的最佳方式，將是推動更多一般貨運運量，並受惠於我們網路強大的營運槓桿潛力。

Lastly, we still estimate cash flow expenditures at $2.3 billion. In closing, I am very encouraged by what we accomplished in this quarter. I'm energized to see the ONE CSX culture start to take shape across this company. Every industry has challenges, but ours are addressable and solvable, and I am confident that they are far outweighed by the opportunities that we have ahead. As I said before, all of us here at every location across our network share a common goal of providing the safe, reliable service to our customers that drives profitable growth, and we are taking meaningful steps towards that goal. Thank you, and we'll now take your questions.

最後，我們仍估計現金流支出為 23 億美元。總結來說，我對本季我們所完成的成果感到非常振奮。我也很有幹勁看到「ONE CSX」文化開始在公司各處成形。每個產業都有挑戰，但我們的挑戰是可被面對且可被解決的；我相信這些挑戰遠遠不及我們前方的機會。如我先前所說，我們網路中每個據點的所有同仁都有共同目標：為客戶提供安全、可靠的服務，以帶動獲利性成長，而我們正朝該目標採取具實質意義的步驟。謝謝，接下來我們將回答各位的問題。

Thank you, Joe. (Operator Instructions). And with that, operator, please open up the line for questions.

謝謝你，Joe。（接線員指示）。那麼，接線員，請開放電話線供提問。

[Operator Instruction]. we'll take our first question from Brian Ossenbeck with JPMorgan.

[接線員指示]。我們的第一個問題來自 JPMorgan 的 Brian Ossenbeck。

Kevin, with the backdrop of improving service and bidding compliance at pretty strong levels. Can you just talk about the order rates, the fill rates across the network? You've heard some different comments and clearly, intermodal is suffering from poor bid compliance. But where do you see when you talk to your customers across the different networks, I guess, primarily within merchandise, where it might be a little more service and truck sensitive.

Kevin，在服務改善以及投標履約（bid compliance）維持在相當強的水準這樣的背景下，你能否談談整個網路的訂單率（order rates）與滿足率（fill rates）？我們聽到一些不同的說法，而且很明顯聯運正因投標履約不佳而受影響。但當你與不同網路的客戶交流時，尤其是在一般貨運這邊——可能對服務與卡車替代更敏感——你看到的情況是什麼？

Yes. I think you probably remember the discussion over the last few quarters where we said we weren't up against the order rates. I would say we're probably more in line with that, especially with our improved service levels. So we're meeting the customer demand currently, but we did see weakness kind of starting last year during the third quarter, fourth quarter period. So as we look through the back half of the year, in many of our markets, particularly on the merchandise side, we see -- we should see some easier comparisons based on the current economic activity that we're seeing. So that's what gives us kind of the confidence in the guidance as we move through the year.

是的。我想你可能記得過去幾季我們的討論，我們曾說我們並沒有受到訂單率的限制。我會說現在大概更接近那樣的狀態，特別是在我們服務水準改善之後。因此目前我們能滿足客戶需求，但我們確實在去年第三季、第四季期間開始看到一些疲弱。當我們展望下半年，在許多市場、尤其是一般貨運端，基於我們目前看到的經濟活動，我們——應該會看到比較基期變得更容易。因此，這也是我們在今年推進過程中，對指引更有信心的原因。

We'll take our next question from Ken Hoexter with Bank of America.

接下來的問題來自美國銀行（Bank of America）的 Ken Hoexter。

Great. If I could just follow on that thought there, Kevin. So it seems like something changed economically kind of mid-February, right, if we look at spot rates in trucking. Can you talk about -- I don't know, Joe, you seem to be talking about kind of intermodal being tougher, and that's why switching from a GDP plus to a kind of an RTM type of outlook. Is there something changing economically in the backdrop more recently? Or is that just the weakness in the truck market? Maybe just talk a little bit about on the intermodal side or just the economic background.

很好。如果我可以延續剛才那個想法，Kevin。看起來經濟在 2 月中旬左右似乎有些變化，對吧？如果我們看卡車運輸的現貨運價。你能談談——我不知道，Joe，你似乎在談聯運變得更具挑戰，這也是為什麼從「GDP 以上」轉向一種以 RTM 為主的展望。近期宏觀背景是否有什麼變化？還是只是卡車市場走弱？也許請多談一點聯運端或整體經濟背景。

Yes, I think -- and we certainly expected a weak market on the international side, but it's safe to say that I think that market came in a bit weaker than what we had expected in the first quarter. But on the flip side, and I would probably make this trade off every time as we saw some strength in some of the merchandise markets that obviously have a much higher ARPU and revenue contribution. So -- that's kind of what we saw through the quarter. There are varying opinions on when the international market will recover. Some of our larger customers expect some kind of pickup in the second half. We have seen some stability over the last 2 to 3 weeks, which is encouraging, but we'll face difficult comparisons through the third quarter and then fourth quarter gets a lot easier.

是的，我認為——我們確實預期國際端市場會偏弱，但可以說第一季該市場的疲弱程度比我們原先預期更大。不過另一方面，我每次都願意做這樣的取捨：我們在一些一般貨運市場看到了強勁表現，而這些市場顯然具有更高的每單位平均收入（ARPU）與營收貢獻。因此——這就是我們本季所看到的情況。至於國際市場何時復甦，各方看法不一。一些大型客戶預期下半年會有某種程度的回升。過去 2 到 3 週我們看到一些穩定跡象，這令人鼓舞，但我們在第三季仍將面臨較艱難的比較基期，而第四季就會容易很多。

We'll take our next question from Jon Chappell with Evercore ISI.

接下來的問題來自 Evercore ISI 的 Jon Chappell。

Kevin, I'm going to stick with you. Given the slides that Jamie put up, particularly #9, with all those service improvements, Trip plan performance, et cetera, do you feel like you're being appropriately compensated for your improved service, both on an absolute basis, but especially on a relative basis as you go through these contract renewals. And I guess another way to ask that is, how far are you through the contract renewals that actually exemplify some of the service improvements that you've done over the last couple of months?

Kevin，我繼續問你。考量 Jamie 放出的投影片，特別是第 9 頁，包含那些服務改善、行程計畫（Trip plan）績效等等，你覺得你們的服務改善是否獲得了適當的報酬——不論是絕對水準，或是相對水準——尤其是在你們進行這些合約續約時？換個方式問，你們目前合約續約進度到哪個程度，已能在條款中實際體現你們過去幾個月所做的服務改善？

Yes. Typically, when you look at our renewal rates, and we renew a little over half our business every year, and that's highly concentrated in the fourth and first quarters. And I would say, given the backdrop in inflation that we would certainly we're having those conversations with our customers to be able to cover our cost increases that are very visible to the market. As we continue to prove our service, customers continue to reiterate, they're willing to pay for the service and the reliability that we can provide. And the plan is, and we -- I think that's starting to occur as we believe we have a differentiated service in the market.

是的。通常，當你看我們的續約率時，我們每年會續約略高於一半的業務，而且續約高度集中在第四季和第一季。我會說，鑑於通膨的背景，我們當然正在與客戶進行這些對話，以便能夠涵蓋我們的成本上升，而這些成本上升在市場上是非常明顯的。隨著我們持續證明我們的服務，客戶也持續重申，他們願意為我們能提供的服務與可靠性付費。我們的計畫是——而且我認為這正開始發生——因為我們相信我們在市場上提供的是具差異化的服務。

And so it's -- we're starting to see early success in our conversations with customers around more volume opportunities with them. And I can't reiterate enough in a market like this is where we should be taking share. Our customers are looking for ways to save money. Usually, rail is a cheaper option for them, and they're getting more and more confidence in our ability to deliver the service that we need to. So the team is very, very excited about some of the things that we've been able to do here over the last few months.

因此——我們開始在與客戶就更多運量機會的對話中看到初步的成功。我再怎麼強調都不為過，在這樣的市場裡，我們應該要搶占市占。我們的客戶正在尋找省錢的方法。通常，鐵路對他們而言是較便宜的選項，而且他們對我們提供所需服務的能力也越來越有信心。所以團隊對於過去幾個月我們能做到的一些事情感到非常、非常振奮。

We'll take our next question from Brandon Oglenski with Barclays.

我們下一個問題來自 Barclays 的 Brandon Oglenski。

And maybe this is for Joe or Jamie, but we've had, obviously, a lot of negative press on the railroads, unfortunately, in the last few months. And the PSR concept has kind of been dragged through the mud a bit. But can you guys compare and contrast because you are delivering just like the last question, very good service metrics here. So what's driving the difference between the rest of the industry? And I guess, how do you leverage that going forward. .

也許這題是問 Joe 或 Jamie。過去幾個月，鐵路業顯然有不少負面報導，不幸的是，PSR 的概念也有點被拖下水。但你們能否做個比較與對照？因為就像上一題所提到的，你們在這裡交出了非常好的服務指標。那麼，與產業其他公司相比，差異是由什麼驅動的？以及我想問的是，你們未來要如何運用這一點。.

Yes, thanks. I'll start and let Jamie add some comments. As I've said many times in the past, I think the guiding principles of our operating model are long-standing and are sustainable, and that, of course, improves safety control costs. Improve asset utilization, improve the employee experience and then also improve customer service, and we are working hard at all 5 of those and keeping them in balance as far as how we prioritize for always safety first.

是的，謝謝。我先開始，然後讓 Jamie 補充一些意見。正如我過去多次說過的，我認為我們營運模式的指導原則是長期存在且可持續的，而這當然能提升安全、控制成本、提升資產利用率、改善員工體驗，並且也改善客戶服務；我們在這 5 個面向都非常努力，並在如何排序優先順序上保持平衡，始終以安全第一。

And I believe very strongly that the results that we're seeing throughout our network and being delivered by our great ONE CSX team is a result of that and focusing on our employees and the customer service specifically. And so I believe that the principles of (inaudible) railroading are just as valid today as they were 5 years ago. Obviously, it's how you keep things in balance and how you prioritize and how you bring everyone along and we're trying to lead by example in that regard.

我非常堅信，我們在整個網路中看到、並由我們優秀的 ONE CSX 團隊所交付的成果，正是來自於這些原則，以及對員工與客戶服務的特別聚焦。因此，我相信（聽不清）精準鐵路（PSR）的原則在今天仍然和 5 年前一樣有效。顯然，關鍵在於你如何保持平衡、如何設定優先順序、以及如何讓每個人一起前進；在這方面我們正嘗試以身作則。

Well, Joe hit it really well. For -- when I think about -- and I hear people say PSR, what does that really mean? I don't know. I only know one way to railroad. And this is the way I was taught the railroad many years ago back when I was at CN. So we've been able to teach the great folks at CSX over the past 6 years how to do this. I've got an unbelievable operating team, some great bench strength and we are doing fantastic, and we've got the resources in place in order to now actually operate the plan. We struggled for years to do that through COVID, but we've come out of it the way we said we would.

Joe 講得非常到位。就——當我想到——而且我聽到人們說 PSR，那到底是什麼意思？我不知道。我只知道一種經營鐵路的方式。而這就是很多年前我在 CN 時被教導的方式。所以在過去 6 年裡，我們已經能夠教 CSX 的優秀同仁如何做到這點。我有一支令人難以置信的營運團隊、很強的後備人才，我們做得非常出色，而且我們也已經具備資源，現在能真正按照計畫來營運。我們在 COVID 期間為此掙扎了好幾年，但我們已經如同我們所說的那樣走出來了。

And we're operating the plant and the team that's out there that's exercising that in the field, not just the network folks who put the plan together, but the field team who is executing it and the folks on the (inaudible) line who are running the trains each and every day that are doing an unbelievable job are getting the trains from point A to Z the way we need them to and servicing the customers the way that we've committed to servicing them and giving Kevin and his team a product that gives them an opportunity to finally go out there and sell something that's different. So I don't know, call it what you want. I just call it railroading.

而且我們是在按計畫運作；在外場實際執行的團隊——不只是制定計畫的網路團隊——而是執行計畫的外場團隊，以及（聽不清）線路上每天運行列車的人員，他們做得令人難以置信，把列車按我們需要的方式從 A 點送到 Z 點，並以我們承諾的方式服務客戶，並且為 Kevin 和他的團隊提供一個產品，讓他們終於有機會走出去銷售一些不同的東西。所以我不知道，你想怎麼稱呼都行。我就稱它為鐵路營運。

We'll take our next question from Scott Group with Wolfe Research.

我們下一個問題來自 Wolfe Research 的 Scott Group。

Kevin, how should we be thinking about rev per carload in sequentially even from 1Q, 2Q. Just maybe walk us through some of the puts and takes. And then similar things, Sean, just 60.5% OR in Q1. I know there's the insurance recovery, but do you think we see sequential improvement from here the rest of the year.

Kevin，我們應該如何看待每車收入（rev per carload）在序列上、甚至從第一季到第二季的變化？能否帶我們梳理一下其中的利多與利空因素？另外類似地，Sean，第一季 OR 為 60.5%。我知道有保險理賠回收，但你認為今年剩下的時間我們會看到序列上的改善嗎？

Yes. I think really the biggest driver from Q1 to Q2, we continue to, as I said, see strong pricing in the backdrop of higher inflation and that's not going to -- that's going to continue throughout the year as we obviously have contract renewals, and we'll have those discussions with customers.

是的。我認為從第一季到第二季最大的驅動因素是，我們持續——如我所說——在較高通膨的背景下看到強勁的定價，而這不會——這將會在全年持續，因為我們顯然會有合約續約，並且會與客戶進行那些討論。

The biggest swing factor, quite frankly, is fuel surcharge and where you see diesel prices head into the summer here. And on a year-over-year basis, where they sit right now, obviously, that's an optical headwind, but we know how quickly those can recover, and so we'll see where that trends. But other than that, you look at export coal and sequentially, probably ex fuel, you're probably looking at something that's flat to the first quarter on the coal RPU, which can swing around a little bit, and that's one that you usually ask about. But otherwise, positive momentum on the core price and then we'll just have to wait and see where the diesel prices shake out.

坦白說，最大的變動因素是燃油附加費，以及你看到柴油價格在夏季走勢如何。以年對年來看，柴油目前所在的位置顯然在視覺上是個逆風，但我們也知道它們回升的速度可能很快，所以我們會看它的趨勢。除此之外，你看出口煤炭，按序來看，可能扣除燃油後，你看到的煤炭每單位收入（RPU）大概與第一季持平，這個項目可能會有些波動，而這也是你通常會問的。但除此之外，核心價格動能是正向的，接下來就只能等著看柴油價格最後會如何變動。

And then, Scott, in terms of operating ratio, yes, I mean, 60.5% for the first quarter is obviously a great start for us. I think as you think about sequentially, you probably have to normalize that for both the insurance gain and then the favorable fuel lag benefit that we had in the quarter. So that gets you to around a 62.5%. We almost always do better in the second quarter from an OR perspective than the first, and that's primarily as a result of the fact that volumes typically seasonally increase in Q2 relative to Q1. We don't see any reason to believe that we'll see anything different this year.

然後，Scott，關於營運比率（operating ratio），是的，第一季 60.5% 對我們來說顯然是個很好的開局。我認為若按序來看，你可能需要把保險收益以及本季我們享有的有利燃油滯後效益都正常化處理。那樣大概會到 62.5% 左右。從 OR 的角度來看，我們幾乎總是在第二季比第一季表現更好，主要是因為運量通常在季節性上第二季相對第一季會增加。我們沒有理由相信今年會有任何不同。

Particularly with some of the issues we had in Q1 with auto production that should ease here, have eased and a strong demand for aggregate. So it's a good setup. I will say just one thing to caveat that with is other revenue was a little bit elevated in Q1 versus the run rate where it likely will be the rest of the year, that may be a little bit of a headwind, but on the flip side, we feel good about the cost momentum if service continues to be at these levels or even better, we should see more costs come out sequentially.

特別是我們在第一季遇到的一些汽車生產問題，這裡應該會緩解——也已經緩解——再加上骨材需求強勁。所以這是個不錯的局面。我想補充一點作為但書：第一季的其他收入相較於今年其餘時間可能的常態水準略高，這可能會帶來一些逆風；但另一方面，如果服務能維持在這些水準甚至更好，我們對成本動能感到樂觀，我們應該會看到更多成本按序下降。

We'll take our next question from Fadi Chamoun with BMO.

我們下一個問題來自 BMO 的 Fadi Chamoun。

Yes. You had the slide talking about the 19 new facilities coming online and obviously, a very strong pipeline that you've discussed in the past into '24 and '25. But I'm just curious when you talk to existing customers, your existing facilities, are you seeing growth in your share of wallet? If you could give us some examples, some tangible example to kind of appreciate that.

是的。你們的投影片提到有 19 個新設施即將上線，而且你們過去也談到在 2024 與 2025 年有非常強勁的案源管線。但我好奇的是，當你們與既有客戶、既有設施的客戶交談時，你們是否看到錢包份額（share of wallet）的成長？如果可以的話，能否給我們一些例子、一些具體的例子，讓我們更能體會這點。

Yes, Fadi. I think that's directly tied to our service product. And we're in the very early innings of that. I think we've seen some customers more willing to have those conversations and others that are kind of wait and see and want to see more months or even quarters of good performance before they're willing to have that conversation. But we've seen some early success. One example that comes to mind is in our food products category where we've gone from roughly a 60% share with our customer now 90% share and doing some things operationally, thanks to Jamie and his team have provided a really, really good service to them, truck-like service that really benefits them from a cost perspective. And that's a direct truck conversion for us. But I see many, many more of those examples starting to happen.

是的，Fadi。我認為這與我們的服務產品直接相關，而我們才剛開始起步。我想我們看到有些客戶更願意進行這些對話；也有一些客戶採取觀望態度，想先看到更多月份、甚至季度的良好表現，才願意進一步談。但我們已經看到一些初步成功。有一個例子是我們的食品產品類別：我們在該客戶的份額已從約 60% 提升到現在的 90%；在營運上做了一些事情——要歸功於 Jamie 和他的團隊——為他們提供了非常、非常好的服務，類似卡車的服務，從成本角度對他們很有利。這對我們而言是直接的卡車轉換。但我看到還會有更多、更多這樣的例子開始發生。

We're working really diligently with Jamie's team and having (inaudible) exercises with our customers. which is really thinking through the art of what's possible, putting our network against what their needs are and really figuring out if there's opportunities to grow and how we really convert the truck. I think the customer acceptance on these meetings has been the highest I've ever seen because they're looking for ways to save on costs given the uncertain backdrop on the market. But a lot of momentum -- the team is working really hard. We have a number of these set up over the next few weeks and quarters ahead. And I expect to have a lot of success.

我們正非常勤奮地與 Jamie 的團隊合作，並與我們的客戶進行（聽不清）演練。這其實是在深入思考「什麼是可能的」這門藝術，把我們的網路能力對照他們的需求，真正找出是否有成長機會，以及我們如何真正把貨量從卡車轉換過來。我認為客戶對這些會議的接受度是我見過最高的，因為在市場不確定的背景下，他們正在尋找節省成本的方法。不過動能很強——團隊真的非常努力。我們在接下來幾週以及未來幾個季度已安排了不少這類會議。我預期會取得很大的成功。

We'll take our next question from Tom Wadewitz with UBS.

我們的下一個問題來自 UBS 的 Tom Wadewitz。

This is Mike Triano on for Tom. So Trip plan compliance and carload 86 seems to be a level where you can make some good progress on truck conversions. Do you think that there are enough crew resources on the network to maintain a strong service product? Or is there some additional hiring that you have to do from here?

我是 Mike Triano，代替 Tom 提問。關於行程計畫遵循度（Trip plan compliance）以及 carload 86，似乎是你們可以在卡車轉換上取得不錯進展的水準。你認為網路上有足夠的乘務資源來維持強勁的服務產品嗎？還是從現在開始你們需要再額外招募一些人？

Mike, we've got a good number with respect to our people. We're still working on a -- like to get another 150 to 200 folks as we try to get closer to a 7,400 number, in particular, for vacation peak. We're sitting around 70% to 80%, I think, today, close to 73%. So we want to push towards that. Now remember, attrition is 10%. We've got to continue to stay up against attrition, which also gives us another trigger if something goes the other way, where we could react, as Sean mentioned, with some costs along the way if we needed to. Resource-wise, we definitely have enough locomotives out there. As a matter of fact, the faster we get the more fluid we get, we need less locomotives.

Mike，就人力而言我們的數量相當不錯。我們仍在努力——希望再增加約 150 到 200 人，讓我們更接近 7,400 人的目標，特別是為了假期旺季。目前我們大概在 70% 到 80% 之間，我想今天接近 73%。所以我們想往那個方向推進。現在請記得，離職率是 10%。我們必須持續對沖離職，這也會在情況反向時給我們另一個觸發點，讓我們可以如 Sean 所提到的那樣，在必要時沿途採取一些成本措施來應對。資源方面，我們絕對有足夠的機車。事實上，我們越快變得更順暢、更具流動性，我們需要的機車就越少。

So we'll continue to analyze those resources and pull them out where we need to, but keep them in a spot where we can use them as Kevin and his team brings more business on we're able to bring them back. And of course, everything that comes back earns its keep. So we'll continue to work those resources. But on the car side, that's a strategy we continue to look at as a team. working with customers. I know Kevin and his team and my team are working close to make sure we've got car supply as we need them as we work with customers and make sure that we have the right resources on that end. At this point in time, we feel good with where we are.

因此我們會持續分析這些資源，並在需要的地方把它們抽出來，但也會把它們保留在一個位置：當 Kevin 和他的團隊帶來更多業務時，我們能夠再把它們調回來。當然，所有回來的資源都必須能夠自給自足、賺回成本。所以我們會持續管理這些資源。但在車輛（car）端，這是我們作為團隊持續在看的策略，並與客戶合作。我知道 Kevin 和他的團隊以及我的團隊正密切合作，確保在與客戶推進時，我們能按需要提供車輛供給，並確保在那一端有正確的資源。就目前而言，我們對現況感覺良好。

But you see the growth that's coming, and Kevin talked about some of those growth areas that are out there. Maybe he wants to touch a little bit on the car side and what he sees in his discussions with customers in those resources. But other than that, -- we're in good shape with everything.

但你也看到了即將到來的成長，Kevin 也談到了一些存在的成長領域。也許他想稍微談一下車輛端，以及他在與客戶討論這些資源時看到的情況。除此之外——我們各方面都處於良好狀態。

I think, as Jamie mentioned, Joe got the team together, the sales and marketing team, along with the operations team and Sean's team and we had a lengthy discussion here recently just on what the needs are. And I'm very encouraged of we have a plan to make sure that we can meet the coming demand in some of these markets that we see great growth and whether it's aggregates some of the auto business, where we know that car supply is going to be a differentiating factor where we feel like we have a good plan in place.

我認為，正如 Jamie 提到的，Joe 把團隊召集在一起——銷售與行銷團隊，加上營運團隊以及 Sean 的團隊——我們最近就需求進行了長時間的討論。我非常受到鼓舞，因為我們有一個計畫，確保能滿足我們在某些市場看到的即將到來的需求成長；這些市場我們看到很好的成長。不論是骨材（aggregates）或部分汽車業務，我們都知道車輛供給將會是差異化因素，而我們覺得已經有一個很好的計畫在位。

We'll take our next question from Justin Long with Stephens.

我們的下一個問題來自 Stephens 的 Justin Long。

Sean, I think on prior calls, you talked about the elevated level of service-related costs that should moderate this year. During the call in January, I felt like you were suggesting this tailwind would be more second half weighted. But could you share any updated thoughts on the cadence of these cost savings? I'm curious if you saw this materialize in the first quarter and how you're expecting that number to trend in the quarters ahead?

Sean，我記得在之前的電話會議中，你談到偏高的服務相關成本今年應該會趨於緩和。在 1 月的電話會議中，我感覺你暗示這個順風會更偏向下半年發生。但你能否分享一下對這些成本節省節奏的最新看法？我想了解你是否在第一季就看到這開始顯現，以及你預期這個數字在接下來幾個季度會如何走勢？

Yes. I think we're off to a good start. Like I said, we had about $15 million to $20 million of what I would call congestion related cost savings in the quarter. That was mostly -- you see that clearly on the rents line on a within PS&O related to intermodal terminals. So we are already seeing some of those costs come out, as I mentioned, sequentially into Q2. Our forecast is that we'll see that pick up a little bit. And then as we get to the second half, that's where we'll see the bulk of it, like you mentioned.

是的。我認為我們有一個不錯的開局。就像我說的，本季我們大約有 1,500 萬到 2,000 萬美元、我稱之為與壅塞（congestion）相關的成本節省。那主要——你可以在租賃（rents）項目上很清楚地看到，屬於 PS&O 中與聯運（intermodal）場站相關的部分。所以我們已經看到部分成本開始退出，正如我提到的，會在第二季按季延續。我們的預測是，這在第二季會再增加一些。然後到了下半年——就像你提到的——我們會看到其中大部分的效益。

So -- and that's going to be in -- continue to be improvements in things like rents and intermodal terminals, locomotive maintenance related to the engine count that Jamie talked about, over time and other related crew costs. So -- and then on top of that, we've got other initiatives not just related to cycling some of the congestion issues from last year that we're working on. And of course, volume growth always helps in terms of productivity levels, both our crews and our assets.

所以——這將體現在——持續改善例如租賃與聯運場站、與 Jamie 談到的引擎數量相關的機車維修，隨著時間推進，以及其他相關的乘務成本。所以——除此之外，我們還有其他不僅僅是針對去年部分壅塞問題循環消退的措施正在推進。當然，運量成長在生產力水準上也總是有幫助，無論是我們的乘務人員還是資產。

We'll take our next question from Chris Wetherbee with Citigroup.

我們的下一個問題來自 Citigroup 的 Chris Wetherbee。

Maybe a question on the headcount side. Jamie, you gave some good near-term color. I guess I'm curious in the context of sort of your progress towards that 7,400 goal. And then reflecting the fact that the volume environment is maybe a little bit more questionable than it was earlier in the year. Is there a point where maybe you hit the pause button on hire and kind of reassess the volume environment? And so after the second quarter, we could see that number potentially moderate depending on the economic conditions we're seeing.

也許問一個關於人頭數（headcount）方面的問題。Jamie，你提供了一些很好的短期觀察。我想在你們朝 7,400 目標推進的背景下，並且考量到運量環境可能比年初更不確定——是否存在某個時間點，你們會按下暫停鍵、先放緩招募並重新評估運量環境？因此在第二季之後，我們可能會看到這個數字因應經濟狀況而有所降溫。

Chris. No, I'm -- listen, we -- I wouldn't say we took the pause button at all. What we've done is this time, I'd say, last quarter when we were talking, we had 550 trainees out there. We're looking to keep ourselves around 350 to 400 trainees as we move forward on a constant basis. So we dropped that number a bit knowing that we don't need to ramp up the way we were. As I said, we look at 10% as our attrition rate. So we still need to ramp up that number a little bit. And then, of course, we'll review a little bit if we need to bring that down to maybe 300 or maybe that 350 is the sweet spot.

Chris。不，我——聽著，我——我不會說我們有按下任何暫停鍵。我們做的是：如果說這個時間點，回到上一季我們在談的時候，我們當時有 550 名受訓人員在外。我們希望在往前推進時，長期把受訓人員維持在大約 350 到 400 人的水準。所以我們把那個數字稍微降了一些，因為我們知道不需要像之前那樣加速擴張。正如我說的，我們把 10% 視為離職率。所以我們仍需要把那個數字再稍微拉高一些。然後，當然，如果需要，我們也會再檢視是否要把它降到大概 300，或是 350 可能是最合適的甜蜜點。

We're always looking to reduce our attrition rate. I think in the industry for many, many years, 10% has been that rate. But of course, we're working really hard with our initiatives to see what we can do to get people to stay at the railroad. And if we see those numbers come down, then we'd be looking at our hiring needs obviously drop with that. But we're in a good spot. We're at a much better spot than where we were in the past with those numbers. I feel comfortable. And that's on the T&E side. Of course, we are still doing locomotive engineer training as we move forward.

我們一直在努力降低離職率。我認為在這個產業很多很多年，10% 一直是那個水準。但當然，我們正非常努力推動各項措施，看看能做些什麼讓人願意留在鐵路公司。如果我們看到那些數字下降，那我們的招募需求顯然也會隨之降低。但我們目前處在一個不錯的位置。就這些數字而言，我們比過去好得多。我覺得很放心。這是在 T&E（運輸與引擎）端。當然，我們也仍在持續進行機車工程師（locomotive engineer）的訓練。

It's the right thing for us to do, so we don't get ourselves in a situation where we're short on engineers in the future, but we recycle conductors to make engineers. And we're always hiring on our engineering side of the house and mechanical side as we continue to look at that high end on the union side. So our numbers are at a pretty good point. I don't see any large jumps at all. If anything, it's more just maintaining where we're at. And if we need to look at if things really go in a different direction. We know that we've got that 10% attrition rate. We've committed to our T&E folks that we're going to keep them (inaudible) employed as long as we can through whatever we need to weather any storms. We don't necessarily see any storms ahead of us, but we don't know what the markets show obviously. But if we need to, we can pull that trigger on hiring really quick.

這對我們來說是正確的做法，這樣我們才不會讓自己未來陷入工程師短缺的情況；我們會把列車長（conductors）回訓培養成工程師。我們也一直在工程部門與機械部門持續招募，因為我們會持續關注工會端的高端需求。所以我們的人數目前在一個相當不錯的點。我不認為會有任何大幅跳升。若有的話，也更像是維持我們目前的水準。若我們需要評估、如果情勢真的往不同方向發展，我們知道我們有 10% 的離職率。我們也已向我們的 T&E 同仁承諾，只要我們能做到，就會讓他們（聽不清）持續受雇，以度過任何風暴。我們不一定看到前方有任何風暴，但我們當然不知道市場會如何發展。不過如果需要，我們可以非常快速地扣下招募的扳機。

Our next question comes from Amit Mehrotra with Deutsche Bank.

我們的下一個問題來自德意志銀行的 Amit Mehrotra。

Congrats on the results really impressive. One question I wanted to ask. So if I look at intermodal revenue as a percentage of the total enterprise, it was like 13.5%, which I mean I could be wrong, but I think that's the lowest number at least this decade over the last 10 years. And so I guess I'm trying to understand, you showed good cost leverage the mix was really positive in terms of where that -- where the revenue growth came from. And so I guess I'm just trying to understand what happens to cost ex fuel as some of the intermodal mix normalize as a percentage of revenue. I don't know if you think that's a fair question or not, but it just seems like maybe that has something to do with some of the strong cost leverage.

恭喜這次的業績，真的很亮眼。我有一個問題想請教。如果我看聯運收入占整體企業總收入的比重，大概是 13.5%。我可能有誤，但我認為這至少是過去 10 年、也就是這個十年以來的最低水準。所以我想了解的是，你們展現了不錯的成本槓桿，收入成長來源的組合也非常正面。因此我想問的是，當聯運占收入的比重回到較正常水準時，扣除燃料後的成本會怎麼變化？我不確定你是否覺得這是個合理的問題，但看起來這可能與一些強勁的成本槓桿表現有關。

Yes. I mean, Amit, we don't get into sort of specific margins within each line of business. To the extent that intermodal volumes were down, which, of course, they were. You're going to see savings at intermodal terminals. We'll be able to see some savings on our crew starts. We'll have some savings on fuel -- but did that disproportionately impact our margins this year? And would that disproportionately impact them if intermodal or I should say, when intermodal recovers I don't think that's our view. We've got strong incremental margins within every segment of the business. And I think as intermodal -- as those volumes normalize and begin to grow again, it's going to have a positive impact on our operating ratio.

是的。Amit，我們通常不會去談各業務線內部的特定利潤率。就聯運量下滑而言——當然確實下滑了——你會在聯運場站看到一些節省；我們也能在開工班次（crew starts）上看到一些節省；燃料方面也會有一些節省——但這是否在今年對我們的利潤率造成不成比例的影響？以及當聯運復甦，或者我應該說，當聯運回升時，是否會不成比例地影響利潤率？我不認為這是我們的看法。我們在每個業務區塊都有很強的增量利潤率。我認為，隨著聯運——隨著這些運量回到正常並再次開始成長，將會對我們的營運比率帶來正面影響。

Our next question comes from Ari Rosa with Credit Suisse.

我們的下一個問題來自瑞士信貸的 Ari Rosa。

Congrats on a strong quarter here. Kevin, you laid out a pretty exciting pipeline of new business opportunities there. I was hoping you could maybe quantify the impact of that in terms of revenue or earnings and kind of what the time line might look like for realizing whether it's that 500 set of opportunities that you talked about, what that might look like over the next couple of years.

恭喜本季表現強勁。Kevin，你提到了一個相當令人振奮的新業務機會管線。我想請你或許可以量化一下其影響，例如對營收或獲利的貢獻，以及實現的時間表大概會是什麼樣子。以你提到的那 500 個機會來說，未來幾年可能會呈現什麼樣的樣貌？

Yes. I mean when you look at a number of these projects, it's going to take a couple of years, if not 3 years, to really complete some of the auto facilities that we're seeing, some of the -- on the metal side as well. So really, I think the momentum builds into 2025. aspirationally, if you ask me, it's kind of 1 to 2 points of growth that we would aspire to on a gross basis. Now sometimes some of these can cannibalize a little bit of your business, but I would like to be able to gross up a point, if not a little bit more, just from the industrial development side, given all the activity that we have as we really start to hit our stride and these projects come online.

是的。當你看這些專案中的不少項目時，真正要完成我們看到的一些汽車設施、以及金屬相關的一些設施，可能需要兩年，甚至三年。所以我認為動能會一路累積到 2025 年。若你問我一個理想目標，從總量（gross）角度來看，我們希望能帶來約 1 到 2 個百分點的成長。有時候其中一些會對既有業務有些許替代效應，但就工業開發這一塊而言，考量到我們手上有這麼多活動、且當我們真正開始進入節奏、這些專案陸續上線時，我希望能帶來至少 1 個百分點、甚至略高一些的總量增長。

We'll take our next question from Ben Nolan with Stifel.

我們下一個問題來自 Stifel 的 Ben Nolan。

Actually, Kevin, I might follow up there because it is -- it's a nice list, nice map. I'm curious, as you look at that and you're competing for those projects. How much of that is competing against another rail versus actual head-to-head against trucks? Or how should we think about where the competition lies for that growth?

其實 Kevin，我想接著追問，因為那確實——是一份很不錯的清單、也很好的地圖。我好奇的是，當你看這些並為這些專案競爭時，其中有多少是在跟另一家鐵路競爭， versus 真正與卡車正面交鋒？或者我們應該如何理解這些成長的競爭態勢？

Well, as you know, over the last 40, 50 years, the railroads haven't done a great job of attracting new industrial development to the railroad. So it's all about getting the word out. It's all getting investing in our team, making sure that companies understand the advantages particularly some of these new markets, when you think about battery production that is very, very new to the United States, and they need to -- they're not familiar with necessarily rail infrastructure and what we can offer. So A lot of the exciting emerging markets, that's where you have to be out in front of it and make sure that you have -- you offer the locations, the infrastructure, the energy resources that they need in order to move quickly.

嗯，如你所知，過去 40、50 年來，鐵路在吸引新的工業開發導入鐵路方面做得並不算好。所以關鍵在於把訊息傳出去；也在於投資我們的團隊，確保企業了解其優勢——尤其是一些新市場。當你想到電池生產，這在美國是非常、非常新的領域，他們需要——他們不一定熟悉鐵路基礎設施以及我們能提供什麼。因此，很多令人興奮的新興市場，你必須走在前面，並確保你能提供他們所需的地點、基礎設施與能源資源，讓他們能夠快速推進。

And it's all about having shovel-ready opportunities that touch the railroad, which you can develop quickly. And the market is moving way quicker than it ever has. And so that's why it's key to have these industrial sites ready for those customers to go. We compete every day with our eastern peer as well. And certainly, we're learning -- leaning into the service that we can provide. We touch a lot of other good industrial companies that they want to reach. And so those all things are factors in our selling points to the customers as they make these decisions.

而且重點在於擁有可立即動工（shovel-ready）、且能連接鐵路的機會，讓你可以快速開發。市場的變化速度比以往任何時候都快。因此，讓這些工業用地為客戶準備就緒、讓客戶可以進駐，是關鍵。我們也每天都在與我們東部的同業競爭。當然，我們也更倚重我們能提供的服務。我們連結到許多其他優質的工業公司，而客戶也希望觸及這些公司。因此，當客戶做出這些決策時，這些都是我們向客戶銷售時的考量因素與賣點。

Take our next question from Jordan Alliger with Goldman Sachs.

我們下一個問題來自高盛的 Jordan Alliger。

This is Andre filling in for Jordan. I just wanted to sort of follow up on the fuel piece. It looks like fuel surcharge revenue was up $121 million year-over-year, but fuel expense was only up $33 million. So the net of the 2 is an $88 million benefit to EBIT in the first quarter. I think that benefit was more like $63 million in the fourth quarter. So some acceleration here on the fuel benefit. Any expectation for, I guess, how that trends in terms of timing or magnitude, It just -- or it seems like based on the diesel strips, you might see some benefit in the second quarter still and maybe drop in the third quarter. You just sort of curious in your thoughts here and what offsets there might be.

我是 Andre，代替 Jordan 提問。我想追問一下燃料的部分。看起來燃油附加費收入年增 1.21 億美元，但燃料費用只增加 3,300 萬美元。所以兩者相抵後，第一季對 EBIT 的貢獻是 8,800 萬美元。我記得第四季的貢獻比較像是 6,300 萬美元，所以燃料帶來的利益似乎有加速。想請問你們對這個趨勢在時間點或幅度上有什麼預期？看起來——或者說依柴油遠期曲線（diesel strips）來看，第二季可能仍有一些好處，但第三季可能會下降。我想聽聽你們的看法，以及可能有哪些抵銷因素。

Thanks, Andre. This is Sean. Your math is correct. I think if you look into the second quarter and you're looking on a sequential basis, at least where fuel prices are and where the forward curve is, it will be a net drag. I would put it in the category of $50 million plus versus the first quarter on a net basis. That's the impact to both revenue and expense. But I think what you were talking about is relative to last year, in the second quarter, it will be likely a net benefit just simply because last year in the second quarter, fuel prices were going up, and we reported a negative lag in the fuel surcharge program. So we'll be cycling that, assuming no change to diesel prices versus where they are right now.

謝謝你，Andre。我是 Sean。你的計算是正確的。我認為如果看第二季、以季比季來看，至少就燃料價格目前的位置以及遠期曲線而言，將會是淨拖累。我會把它歸類為相較第一季，淨額影響在 5,000 萬美元以上。這是對收入與費用兩端的影響。但我想你提到的是相較去年：在第二季，可能仍會是淨受益，原因很單純，因為去年第二季燃料價格在上升，而我們在燃油附加費機制上呈現負向時滯（negative lag）。因此在假設柴油價格相對目前水準不變的情況下，我們會進入這個比較基期（cycling that）。

We'll take our next question from David Vernon with Bernstein.

我們下一個問題來自 Bernstein 的 David Vernon。

Sean, can you talk a little bit about expectations for average cost per hedge kind of on a year-over-year basis and add any color to how much the CTO that's been added into the benefit packages is impacting cost for full year '23?

Sean，你能談談每位員工平均成本（average cost per head）在年比年基礎上的預期嗎？另外也請補充一下，今年全年 '23 的福利方案中新增的 CTO 對成本的影響有多大？

Absolutely, David. So on cost per employee, I think we came in right about where we expected. Maybe a little bit favorable just due to mix impact of employees with the driver count at quality, which are a little less in terms of dollars per employee -- as you go to Q2, I think it will be fairly stable versus Q1, maybe up a little bit depending on that employee mix. And then as we get into the second half of the year, you will see a step-up just due to the timing of the wage increases for the union employees, which is scheduled to be a 4% increase -- in terms of the cost of the [Sick leave], which we've now got agreements with about 10,000 of our union employees -- we are -- we have added those costs into the forecast.

當然可以，David。就每位員工成本而言，我認為結果大致符合我們的預期。可能因為員工組合的影響而略為有利，因為在 quality 的司機人數占比——以每位員工的美元成本來看——稍微低一些。進入第二季，我認為相較第一季會相當穩定，可能會因員工組合而略微上升。接著到了下半年，你會看到一個台階式上升，主要是因為工會員工的加薪時點，預計是 4% 的調升——至於 [病假] 的成本，我們目前已與約 10,000 名工會員工達成協議——我們已將這些成本納入預測。

The experience so far has been very positive. We are seeing the employees take advantage of the benefit, and we are seeing when that's needed. There's a little bit of additional overtime, but there are some benefits to it as well and certainly quality of life is 1 of those benefits. And on a net basis, I would say, a couple of million a quarter at this point.

到目前為止的經驗非常正面。我們看到員工確實在使用這項福利，而且是在需要時使用。會有一點額外的加班，但同時也帶來一些好處，當然生活品質就是其中之一。以淨額來看，目前大概是每季幾百萬美元的影響。

We'll take our next question from Allison Poliniak with Wells Fargo.

我們的下一個問題來自富國銀行（Wells Fargo）的 Allison Poliniak。

Just going back to the share gain piece of it. Merchandise volume, you grew 4%. Is there any way to quantify or give us some perspective of what those share gains were this quarter, if any? And as we think about that spread over what the market is growing in those areas, is that 1% to 2% on top of that a pretty good guide. And would that be more of '24 for this? Or do you think you can get there in '23?

我想回到市占提升這一塊。商品運量（Merchandise volume）你們成長了 4%。這一季如果有的話，能否量化或提供一些角度，讓我們了解這些市占提升的幅度？另外，當我們思考這些領域的市場成長時，是否可以把在市場成長之上再多 1% 到 2% 當作一個不錯的參考指引？而這會比較像是 2024 年的情況，還是你們認為 2023 年就能達到？

Yes. I think a lot of the success that we had in -- particularly on the merchandise side is really the service improvement that we saw. And our ability to capture the orders that our customers have. And so that January, February were really good months, weather probably was a little bit favorable in those months as well that then certainly help us, but then Jamie would tell me, March was pretty challenging from a weather perspective. So I would say overall, normal weather through the quarter, probably a little better in January, February. But it really is about just a service recovery and our ability on a year-over-year basis to capture more of the demand that was out there even though we've seen a little bit of softness in some markets.

是的。我認為我們取得的許多成功——特別是在商品業務這一端——主要來自我們看到的服務改善，以及我們捕捉客戶訂單的能力。因此 1 月、2 月是非常好的月份，天氣在那兩個月可能也稍微有利，這確實幫了我們；但 Jamie 會告訴我，從天氣角度來看，3 月相當具挑戰性。所以我會說整體而言，本季天氣算是正常，1 月、2 月可能稍微好一些。但重點其實在於服務復原，以及我們在年對年基礎上，即使在某些市場看到些許疲軟，仍能捕捉到更多外部需求的能力。

We'll take our next question from Walter Spracklin with RBC Capital.

我們的下一個問題來自 RBC Capital 的 Walter Spracklin。

So I want to turn it back to Sean for a moment here. And really just related back to Jamie and Joe's comments. I mean -- and even Kevin. So Jamie has a pretty good handle on operations here. The model is working very well. Kevin is translating it into business wins and good growth opportunities. And then Joe in his outlook mentioned that asset productivity is going to exceed or approach prior record levels. when I go back and look at prior record levels, that's the time when you were hitting kind of the low 58 OR. Is that a good -- I mean is that overly simplistic to say that when you're hitting those kind of record operating record asset productivity levels that you can't achieve those type of ORs in 2023? Or is it a little too simplistic, Sean, to look at it that way?

我想先把問題轉回給 Sean 一下，主要是呼應 Jamie 和 Joe 的評論——甚至也包括 Kevin。Jamie 對營運掌握得很到位，這個模式運作得非常好；Kevin 正把它轉化為業務勝利與良好的成長機會；而 Joe 在展望中提到，資產生產力將超越或接近先前的歷史高點。當我回頭看先前的歷史高點，那時你們的 OR 大概落在 58 的低檔。這樣說是否合理——我的意思是，是否過於簡化地認為，當你們達到那種營運、資產生產力的歷史高水準時，2023 年就不可能達到那樣的 OR？還是說，用這種方式來看有點太簡化了，Sean？

Well, Walter, I think you think back to the 58 OR, the first thing you've got to recognize is the quality acquisitions since then. So that's about 250 basis points of headwind. And we've had a lot of inflation. We're paying employees more. The underlying cost of contractors and materials is higher. And so those are headwinds. That being said, as we continue to run the business well and we deliver good productivity, and we get great feedback from the customers. We've got this pipeline of wins that are setting up as well as delivering against customer expectations and demands. We're going to deliver that at strong incremental margins, and that's going to help out over the medium to long term on the OR. I can't give you a specific point destination. But as we go forward, we would expect improvement from where we are right now.

Walter，回想 58 的 OR，第一件你必須認知的是，自那之後我們做了高品質的併購。這大約帶來 250 個基點的逆風。此外，我們也經歷了大量通膨。我們付給員工更高的薪資，承包商與材料的基礎成本也更高，所以這些都是逆風。即便如此，隨著我們持續把業務經營好、交付良好的生產力，並從客戶那裡獲得很好的回饋，我們也有一條正在形成的贏單管線，同時也在滿足客戶的期望與需求。我們將以強勁的增量利潤率來交付，這將在中長期對 OR 帶來幫助。我無法給你一個特定的目標點位，但往前看，我們預期會比目前的水準有所改善。

We'll take our next question from Jason Seidl with Cowen.

我們的下一個問題來自 Cowen 的 Jason Seidl。

Congrats on the good quarter. It's really nice to see the service doing so well here, and that was reflected, I think, in our survey that we did this quarter. I wanted to talk about your outlook and sort of what's baked in with an assumption on the West Coast ports sort of coming to a labor agreement. Are you looking for some of that East Coast volumes to shift back? And if so, how do you think it will affect operations?

恭喜這一季表現不錯。很高興看到你們的服務做得這麼好，我想這也反映在我們本季做的調查中。我想談談你們的展望，以及其中對西岸港口達成勞資協議的假設到底納入了哪些因素。你們是否預期部分東岸的貨量會回流？如果會，你們認為對營運會有什麼影響？

From that perspective, I don't see a huge amount of shift. You're going to continue to see you a secular advantage of the East Coast, and there's a lot of investment going on, as you know, in Savannah and other ports on the network. Quite frankly, the challenges on the West Coast have heard our intermodal business, when you think of what wants to come across through California through Chicago onto our network. So I view that as probably an incremental positive for us that some of that freight will see through the interchange with some of our Western partners out there. So that's a positive outcome in my mind in terms of our growth opportunity as we move into the back half.

從這個角度來看，我不認為會有很大幅度的轉移。你仍會持續看到東岸的長期結構性優勢，而且如你所知，Savannah 以及網路上的其他港口正在進行大量投資。坦白說，西岸的挑戰傷害了我們的聯運（intermodal）業務，尤其是當你想到那些想要經由加州、穿越芝加哥再進入我們網路的貨流。因此我把這視為對我們可能是額外的正面因素：部分貨物會透過與我們在西部的一些合作夥伴之間的交接（interchange）而流動。就我們在下半年推進時的成長機會而言，我認為這是正面的結果。

Thank you. And this does conclude today's presentation. Thank you for your participation, and you may now disconnect.

謝謝。今天的簡報到此結束。感謝各位的參與，現在可以斷線。