CSX Corp (CSX) 2024 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Thank you for standing by. My name in Jalen and I'll be your conference operator today. (Operator Instructions) I would now like to turn the conference over to Matthew Korn, Head of Investor Relations, and Strategy. You may begin.

謝謝你的支持。我叫傑倫，今天我將擔任你們的會議操作員。（操作員指示）我現在想將會議交給投資者關係和策略主管 Matthew Korn。你可以開始了。

Thank you operator. Hello, everyone and good afternoon. Welcome to our third quarter earnings call. Join me on this call are Joe Hinrichs, President and Chief Executive Officer, Mich Cory, Executive Vice President and Chief Operating Officer, Kevin Boone, Executive Vice President and Chief Commercial Officer and Sean Pelkey, Executive Vice President, and Chief Financial Officer.

謝謝運營商。大家好，下午好。歡迎參加我們的第三季財報電話會議。與我一起參加本次電話會議的有總裁兼執行長 Joe Hinrichs、執行副總裁兼營運長 Mich Cory、執行副總裁兼首席商務長 Kevin Boone 以及執行副總裁兼財務長 Sean Pelkey。

And a presentation accompanying this call available on our website. You will find slides with our forward-looking disclosures and non GAAP disclosures for your review. That is my pleasure to introduce Mr. Joe Hinrichs.

我們的網站上也提供了本次電話會議的簡報。您將找到包含我們的前瞻性揭露和非 GAAP 揭露的投影片供您審閱。我很高興向您介紹 Joe Hinrichs 先生。

All right. Thank you, Matthew and whoever one and thank you for joining our third quarter call today. First, I want to thank our entire ONE CSX team. We've been tireless in helping our employees and their communities recover from the hardships caused by two hurricanes in a matter of weeks. Helene, in particular, had a big impact on our network and we'll talk more about that today.

好的。謝謝馬修和其他人，也謝謝您今天參加我們的第三季電話會議。首先，我要感謝我們整個 ONE CSX 團隊。我們一直在不知疲倦地幫助我們的員工及其社區從幾週內兩次颶風造成的困難中恢復過來。尤其是 Helene，她對我們的網路產生了很大的影響，今天我們將詳細討論這一點。

We have largely recovered and we have made sure that CSX has been able to support our railroaders who have needed assistance for themselves and their families. That said, there's more work that we will need to do to repair and replace some of the physical infrastructure that we lost which Mike and Sean will discuss later on this call.

我們已基本康復，並確保 CSX 能夠為自己及其家人需要援助的鐵路員工提供支援。也就是說，我們需要做更多的工作來修復和更換我們失去的一些實體基礎設施，麥克和肖恩稍後將在這次電話會議上討論這些問題。

Stepping back and looking at this entire quarter, I am proud of what we accomplished. Our aim was to grow volume, revenue and operating margin compared to last year and that is exactly what we delivered. Our merchandise franchise continues to grow at an impressive pace, benefiting from our service leadership and the numerous initiatives that Kevin and his team are pursuing to bring new business to CSX.

回顧整個季度，我為我們所取得的成就感到自豪。我們的目標是與去年相比增加銷售、收入和營業利潤，而這正是我們所實現的。我們的商品特許經營繼續以令人印象深刻的速度成長，這得益於我們的服務領先地位以及 Kevin 和他的團隊為給 CSX 帶來新業務而採取的眾多舉措。

Operationally, our efficiency and cost controls remain solid and we're still only getting started with some of the ways that we're using valuable real time data to optimize our network. We have had our challenges. This quarter, we had to adapt and respond to significant weather events, equipment issues that are coal terminal and lower diesel prices.

在營運方面，我們的效率和成本控制仍然穩固，而且我們仍然只是開始使用有價值的即時數據來優化網路的一些方法。我們遇到了挑戰。本季度，我們必須適應和應對重大天氣事件、煤炭碼頭設備問題和柴油價格下降。

Throughout, we kept our focus on our long term goal to deliver consistent, sustainable profitable growth over time. Now let's go over some of the highlights. On slide 1, shows our key results from our third quarter compared to last year. Despite the severe weather, we were still able to post some very good results across the company.

自始至終，我們始終專注於長期目標，即隨著時間的推移實現持續、可持續的獲利成長。現在讓我們回顧一下一些亮點。第 1 張投影片顯示了我們第三季與去年相比的主要業績。儘管天氣惡劣，我們仍然在整個公司取得了一些非常好的成績。

Looking across the highlights listed on this top line, total volume grew by 3% versus last year led by strong performance in our core merchandise business where volume also grew by 3%. Merchandise revenue grew by impressive 6% supported by 3% growth in volume and favourable pricing.

縱觀這一頂行列出的亮點，總銷量比去年增長了 3%，這得益於我們核心商品業務的強勁表現，銷量也增長了 3%。在銷售成長 3% 和優惠價格的推動下，商品收入成長了 6%，令人印象深刻。

Our operating margin reached 37.4% inclusive of our trucking business and improved 180 basis points compared to last year demonstrating strong year-over-year expansion as our guidance indicated.

包括卡車運輸業務在內，我們的營業利潤率達到 37.4%，與去年相比提高了 180 個基點，正如我們的指引所示，同比增長強勁。

Now these charts summarize a solid quarter for CSX. Full revenue reached over $3.6 billion for the quarter of 1% from the same period last year even with lower fuel surcharge and coal prices. Operating income increased by 7% compared to last year as we delivered strong criminal margins from top line growth and cost control. Earnings per share grew by 12% supported by solid results for the business and our commitment capital returns.

現在，這些圖表總結了 CSX 強勁的季度表現。儘管燃油附加費和煤炭價格較低，但本季總收入仍超過 36 億美元，較去年同期成長 1%。與去年相比，我們的營業收入成長了 7%，因為我們透過營收成長和成本控制實現了強勁的利潤率。由於穩健的業務績效和我們承諾的資本回報，每股盈餘成長了 12%。

Our results this quarter demonstrate strong execution if we build powerful momentum behind our proven operating model. We remain motivated as a team. Keeping in mind that I've told you since I joined CSX over two years ago, talented people working together as ONE CSX team was a common goal can accomplish just about anything.

如果我們在經過驗證的營運模式背後建立強大的動力，那麼我們本季的業績就證明了強大的執行力。我們作為一個團隊仍然充滿動力。請記住，自從我兩年多前加入 CSX 以來，我就告訴過您，作為一個 CSX 團隊，有才華的人一起工作是一個共同目標，可以完成幾乎任何事情。

Now, I'll turn the call over to Mike to provide details on our operational performance.

現在，我將把電話轉給麥克，以提供有關我們營運績效的詳細資訊。

Thank you Joe and thanks to all of you for joining us today. So here's a rundown on the operating activities in the quarter. Let me start first though by thanking our ONE CSX team for their extremely hard work and their teamwork to deliver solid results through a challenging quarter at times and specifically in certain locations.

謝謝喬，也謝謝大家今天加入我們。以下是本季經營活動的概要。首先，我要感謝我們的 ONE CSX 團隊的辛勤工作和團隊合作，在充滿挑戰的季度（特別是在某些地區）取得了紮實的成果。

So let's go to the first slide on safety. For FRA injuries, not much has changed since the last quarter in terms of metrics. Although we see a higher frequency than our desired target, we're finding the injury severity rate is lower and as a result, we've seen a reduction in lost days of work for injured employees.

讓我們來看第一張關於安全的幻燈片。對於法國傷病情況，自上季度以來指標沒有太大變化。儘管我們看到的頻率高於預期目標，但我們發現受傷嚴重程度較低，因此，我們看到受傷員工的誤工天數減少。

For FRA train accidents, we continue to see a year-over-year decrease in incidents. Our biggest improvement has been driven by a reduction in human factor yard train accidents. Through our safe CSX initiative, we're improving our ability to reduce workplace exposures and this will continue to drive positive results across the network.

對於法蘭克福機場火車事故，我們繼續看到事故數量逐年減少。我們最大的進步是人為因素車場列車事故的減少。透過我們的安全 CSX 計劃，我們正在提高減少工作場所暴露的能力，這將繼續推動整個網路取得積極成果。

We recorded our lowest number of human factor train accidents in September and human factor incidents are leading cause and that progress is really great and it's a great achievement by our employees here at CSX.

我們在 9 月記錄了人為因素列車事故數量最低的記錄，人為因素事故是主要原因，這一進展確實很大，這是我們 CSX 員工的巨大成就。

So looking at the next slide, our railroad remains fluid albeit we have had and still have some weather related challenges. Our overall velocity, considering the effects of the weather show the resiliency of our network. Our ability to maintain our fluidity came directly from the effective response of our field forces and our ops teams to manage changes to our service plan that provided needed service to our customers in an efficient manner throughout this period. Collectively, we were able to ensure our strategy of safe restoration of service was accomplished without injury or accident.

因此，請看下一張幻燈片，儘管我們已經並且仍然面臨一些與天氣相關的挑戰，但我們的鐵路仍然暢通無阻。考慮到天氣的影響，我們的整體速度顯示了我們網路的彈性。我們保持流動性的能力直接來自我們的現場部隊和營運團隊的有效回應，以管理我們的服務計劃的變更，從而在整個期間以有效的方式為客戶提供所需的服務。總的來說，我們能夠確保安全恢復服務的策略得以完成，沒有造成傷害或事故。

While network speed is extremely important, our focus has been equally strong ensuring our major engineering work gets accomplished according to the plan and with multiple weather constraints, we were able to stay on plan while maintaining our network velocity.

雖然網路速度極為重要，但我們同樣重視確保我們的主要工程工作按照計劃完成，並且在多種天氣限制的情況下，我們能夠在保持網路速度的同時按計劃進行。

While our dwell metric was affected by weather, we did see an increase of 3% more car loads and moved it with 3% less train starts. So we continue to manage the inventories in our yards for our customers and always, always look for a more efficient way to move the cars.

雖然我們的停留指標受到天氣的影響，但我們確實看到車廂裝載量增加了 3%，列車開動量減少了 3%。因此，我們繼續為客戶管理院子裡的庫存，並始終尋找更有效的汽車運輸方式。

Weather aside the team is focused on service and efficiency and the lessons learned from our response and actions as a team will certainly help the development of our operating leaders going forward. Over the last slide, we continue to work with our sales and marketing team to align our operations with the needs of our customers.

除了天氣之外，團隊專注於服務和效率，從我們作為一個團隊的反應和行動中學到的經驗教訓肯定會有助於我們營運領導者的未來發展。在上一張投影片中，我們繼續與銷售和行銷團隊合作，使我們的營運與客戶的需求保持一致。

Excellent service and cost discipline are always at the forefront. Our metrics do reflect weather related difficulties. However, our field forces, as I mentioned earlier, worked extremely efficiently to get us back operating as fast as possible. But the big thing is we did this collectively as a team with our service group, staying close to our customers and communicating important two way information throughout.

卓越的服務和成本控制始終處於最前線。我們的指標確實反映了與天氣相關的困難。然而，正如我之前提到的，我們的現場部隊工作非常高效，使我們盡快恢復運作。但最重要的是，我們作為一個團隊與我們的服務團隊共同完成了這項工作，與客戶保持密切聯繫，並在整個過程中溝通重要的雙向訊息。

Our vast network resilience and faster recovery over our network has allowed us to remain in line with our customers' needs throughout this weather. And I'm very proud of how well the entire team has come together and worked to provide service through some challenging disruptions.

我們強大的網路彈性和更快的網路復原使我們能夠在整個天氣條件下始終滿足客戶的需求。我對整個團隊能夠很好地團結起來並努力透過一些具有挑戰性的中斷提供服務感到非常自豪。

Communication between our service network and field operation teams is very strong and continues to strengthen. These last couple of months we provided plenty of opportunities to show what we can do with and for our customers. So all in all, I'm very proud of the team and I'm thankful for their efforts in this tough but very good quarter. Thank you and over to you, Kevin.

我們的服務網絡和現場營運團隊之間的溝通非常密切，並且還在不斷加強。在過去的幾個月裡，我們提供了許多機會來展示我們可以與客戶合作並為客戶做些什麼。總而言之，我為團隊感到非常自豪，並感謝他們在這個艱難但非常好的季度所做的努力。謝謝你，凱文。

All right, thank you, Mike. In the third quarter as Joe and Mike both mentioned, we were presented with a number of challenges from storms, a strike at our east coast ports and another temporary outage at our Curtis Bay term terminal. We're very proud of the level of communication throughout the CSX team and our focus on serving our customers through these challenges.

好的，謝謝你，麥克。正如喬和麥克都提到的，在第三季度，我們面臨著風暴、東海岸港口罷工以及柯蒂斯灣定期碼頭另一次臨時停駛等挑戰。我們對整個 CSX 團隊的溝通程度以及我們專注於為客戶應對這些挑戰提供服務感到非常自豪。

This was highlighted by our most recent customer survey out just this week with our net promoter score at the highest level since we started measuring. With major storms impacting our network, we are working with our customers on the rebuilding efforts to ensure CSX is able to deliver the building materials and other essential supplies to the areas where they are needed.

我們本週發布的最新客戶調查凸顯了這一點，我們的淨推薦值達到了我們開始測量以來的最高水準。由於重大風暴影響了我們的網絡，我們正在與客戶合作進行重建工作，以確保 CSX 能夠將建築材料和其他必需品運送到需要的區域。

There's been a lot to manage through even for a railroad with experience of CSX. By working together, we've been able to find creative solutions to keep freight flowing. At a high level, market conditions remain a bit mixed. We are seeing continued strength in some of our merchandise markets and while truck rates appear to have bottomed, there remains a soft market. Diesel and natural gas prices remain low and benchmark, coal prices have moderated.

即使對於擁有 CSX 經驗的鐵路公司來說，也有很多事情需要管理。透過共同努力，我們已經找到了保持貨運暢通的創意解決方案。從較高水準來看，市場狀況仍然有點複雜。我們看到一些商品市場持續走強，雖然卡車運價似乎已經觸底，但市場仍然疲軟。柴油和天然氣價格保持較低水平，煤炭價格放緩。

All that said, we grew total volumes and revenue over the quarter as our service led initiatives continue to bring new business to our railroad. The team has continued to build momentum by working with our customers and we're going to continue to push hard against the mixed economic backdrop and I'm excited about our upcoming Investor Day where you will hear more from our commercial leaders who are laying the foundation to deliver profitable growth for CSX.

儘管如此，隨著我們以服務為主導的舉措繼續為我們的鐵路帶來新業務，我們本季的總銷量和收入均有所增長。團隊透過與客戶合作，繼續建立動力，我們將繼續在複雜的經濟背景下努力推動，我對即將到來的投資者日感到興奮，屆時您將聽到我們商業領袖的更多信息，他們正在奠定為CSX 實現獲利成長奠定了基礎。

Let's first review our merchandise business as shown on slide 7. As a whole, merchandise continues to be a great contributor for us. As we anticipated volume growth accelerated this quarter supported by new business wins, truck conversions and the ramp up of industrial development projects, revenue gained 6% compared to last year driven by a 3% gain in volume and solid pricing.

讓我們先回顧一下我們的商品業務，如幻燈片 7 所示。總的來說，商品仍然是我們的巨大貢獻者。我們預計，在新業務贏得、卡車改裝和工業開發項目增加的支持下，本季度銷量將加速增長，在銷量增長 3% 和穩定的定價的推動下，收入較去年增長 6%。

Note that with lower diesel prices, fuel surcharge was a drag on both total revenue and reported RPU. On a core basis or same store basis, our merchandise pricing remains solid. Chemicals continues as positive performance for the year delivering a 9% volume increase year-over-year. We've seen consistent broad strength across plastics, industrial chemicals, LPG’s, and waste.

請注意，隨著柴油價格下降，燃油附加費拖累了總收入和報告的 RPU。在核心基礎或同店基礎上，我們的商品定價保持穩定。化學品業務今年持續保持積極表現，銷量較去年同期成長 9%。我們看到塑膠、工業化學品、液化石油氣和廢棄物領域始終保持廣泛的優勢。

In Ag and food, the second half inflection has taken off as we had hoped. But volume also up 9% led by grain and feed ingredients as customers turn to the Midwest for supplies. Close collaboration with our operating team has ensured consistent service as a strong seasonal demand has kicked in. Those products also saw great year-over-year growth with healthy improvement and pulpboard demand contributing to a 9% volume gain.

在農業和食品領域，下半年的轉折點已經如我們所希望的那樣開始出現。但隨著客戶轉向中西部採購，穀物和飼料原料的銷售量也增加了 9%。隨著強勁的季節性需求的出現，與我們的營運團隊的密切合作確保了一致的服務。這些產品也實現了同比大幅增長，紙漿板需求的健康改善推動了 9% 的銷售成長。

Some of this new force product business is shorter length of haul, which was a factor in the 3Q reported RPU. Results in our minerals business were mixed with volume up 1%. Cement is doing very well supported by construction demand and the ramp up of new customer facilities. But wet rainy weather was a modest drag on aggregate shipments over the quarter. All of that said the underlying long term trend remains very favourable.

這些新興產品業務中的一些是較短的運輸距離，這是第三季報告的 RPU 的因素。我們的礦產業務業績好壞參半，銷量成長了 1%。在建築需求和新客戶設施增加的支援下，水泥表現非常好。但潮濕的多雨天氣對該季度的總出貨量造成了適度的拖累。所有這些都表明潛在的長期趨勢仍然非常有利。

Other markets we serve are facing more near term challenges. As we've highlighted through much of this year, the metals market particularly steel remains soft with sluggish demand, ample supply, and low commodity prices.

我們服務的其他市場近期面臨更多挑戰。正如我們今年大部分時間所強調的，金屬市場尤其是鋼鐵市場仍然疲軟，需求低迷，供應充足，大宗商品價格低迷。

One reason for softer metals demand is a weaker than anticipated automotive market for conditions have deteriorated. Volumes inflected negatively for us this quarter and mix was also a modest headwind to auto RPU.

金屬需求疲軟的原因之一是汽車市場狀況惡化，弱於預期。本季我們的銷售出現了負面影響，而且混合因素對汽車 RPU 也構成了適度的阻力。

As Joe mentioned at an Investor Conference last month, the industry has seen consumer demand diminish by high retail prices and interest rates which has led to higher dealer inventories and slower production. Our belief is that interest rate easing cycle will help these markets normalize.

正如喬上個月在投資者會議上提到的那樣，該行業的消費者需求因高零售價格和利率而減少，導致經銷商庫存增加和生產放緩。我們相信，利率寬鬆週期將有助於這些市場正常化。

Lastly, total fertilizer volume continued to trend negatively in the third quarter. So we were able to pick up some favourable spot moves. For the remainder of the year, we expect to see a carryover of solid year-over- year momentum in chemicals, Ag and food or Forest Products and Minerals while trains and metals continue to be challenged in the near term.

最後，第三季化肥總量持續呈現負成長趨勢。因此，我們能夠獲得一些有利的現貨走勢。在今年剩餘時間裡，我們預計化學品、農業和食品或林產品和礦產將保持強勁的同比增長勢頭，而火車和金屬在短期內繼續面臨挑戰。

Let's turn to slide 8 to review the coal business. For the third quarter total coal revenue declined 7%, a 2% decline in volume. As shown in our financial report, we saw export and domestic shipments move in opposite directions with export tonnage increasing by 10% year-over-year and domestic tonnage decreasing by 12%.

讓我們轉向幻燈片 8 來回顧煤炭業務。第三季煤炭總收入下降 7%，銷量下降 2%。正如我們的財務報告所示，我們看到出口和國內出貨量呈現相反方向，出口噸位年增10%，國內噸位下降12%。

Low natural gas prices continue to limit the utility burn. All in coal RPU was down 5% compared to last year and 7.5% sequentially in line with our guidance last quarter and largely driven by the declines in global benchmarks for metallurgical coal.

較低的天然氣價格繼續限制公用事業的燃燒。全部煤炭 RPU 與去年相比下降 5%，與我們上季度的指導一致，環比下降 7.5%，這主要是由於全球冶金煤基準下降所致。

Looking ahead to the fourth quarter, markets seem relatively stable. Utility stockpiles are sufficient. And though natural gas prices recently approached the third dollars mark do not anticipate any near term step up in volumes.

展望第四季度，市場似乎相對穩定。公用事業庫存充足。儘管天然氣價格最近接近第三美元大關，但預計近期銷量不會增加。

Export demand remains consistent particularly from buyers in Asia and the Australian met benchmark has stabilized around the $200 level toward the end of the last quarter. Given the lag Ag in our export contracts, we anticipate a modest to low single digit sequential decline of all in coal RPU in the fourth quarter.

出口需求保持穩定，特別是亞洲買家的需求，澳洲基準價格在上個季度末穩定在 200 美元左右。鑑於我們出口合約的滯後性，我們預計第四季度所有煤炭 RPU 將出現溫和至低個位數的環比下降。

Turning the intermodel on slide 9, total revenue declined 2% year-over-year by volume increased 3%. International shipments grew at a solid and single digit rate while domestic shipments ended up effectively flat for the quarter.

翻閱投影片 9 的 Intermodel，總營收年減 2%，銷售量則成長 3%。國際出貨量以個位數的速度穩定成長，而本季國內出貨量實際上持平。

As we talked about in past calls, we did see a shift towards west coast arrivals over the summer which lifted our transcontinental interchange business to the east. We also opened up new business with several customer partners.

正如我們在過去的電話中談到的那樣，我們確實看到了夏季抵達西海岸的航班的轉變，這將我們的跨大陸轉乘業務提升到了東部。我們也與一些客戶合作夥伴開闢了新業務。

Overall, we did see the domestic business gain modest momentum over the quarter. But activity with some of our main channel partners remains relatively soft. Total intermodal RPU decreased 5% largely due to lower fuel surcharge in the mix with international outgrowing the domestic business.

總體而言，我們確實看到國內業務在本季度取得了溫和的成長勢頭。但我們與一些主要通路合作夥伴的活動仍然相對疲軟。多式聯運 RPU 總額下降了 5%，主要是由於燃油附加費降低，加上國際業務成長超過國內業務。

We're pleased to see a relatively quick short term solution for the ILA as we did see the effects on our volumes during the strike. The trucking backdrop has remained challenged through 2024, but we do see signs of market conditions bottoming and are well prepared to handle more volumes as the market continues to improve and the team continues to find new business for the CSX Intermodal network.

我們很高興看到 ILA 得到相對快速的短期解決方案，因為我們確實看到了罷工期間對我們產量的影響。到2024 年，卡車運輸仍然面臨挑戰，但我們確實看到市場狀況觸底的跡象，並且隨著市場持續改善以及團隊繼續為CSX 多式聯運網絡尋找新業務，我們已做好準備處理更多的貨運量。

Summing it up, the team performed very well this quarter, especially given the number of external challenges we faced. Still conditions for the fourth quarter are mixed with certain markets continuing to show positive momentum while other markets remain challenged, including those markets more impacted by the current interest rate environment.

總而言之，該團隊本季表現非常好，特別是考慮到我們面臨的外部挑戰眾多。第四季的情況仍然好壞參半，某些市場繼續表現出積極的勢頭，而其他市場仍然面臨挑戰，包括那些受當前利率環境影響較大的市場。

We remain consistent throughout market cycles is our commitment to serving our customers and we remain confident that our creativity will continue to create opportunities next year and well into the future. We look forward to sharing more with you in November and I'll turn it over to Sean.

我們在整個市場週期中保持一致是我們為客戶服務的承諾，我們仍然相信我們的創造力將在明年和未來繼續創造機會。我們期待在 11 月與您分享更多內容，我會將其交給 Sean。

Thank you, Kevin, and good afternoon. I'd like to start by reiterating our appreciation for the tireless work of our fellow railroaders to help friends, communities and the network recover from the devastating impacts of the recent hurricanes. From a business standpoint, Helene impacted revenue by $10 million to $15 million at the end of the third quarter and drove a small amount of incremental expense.

謝謝你，凱文，下午好。首先，我想再次感謝我們的鐵路同事們為幫助朋友、社區和鐵路網絡從最近颶風的破壞性影響中恢復過來所做的不懈努力。從業務角度來看，Helene 在第三季末影響了營收 1,000 萬至 1,500 萬美元，並帶來了少量增量支出。

It appears the fourth quarter of storm related impacts will be larger than Q3 with a current estimate of around $50 million. That includes storm recovery and rerouting cost near $20 million as well as roughly $30 million of net revenue impacts.

第四季的風暴相關影響似乎將比第三季更大，目前估計約為 5000 萬美元。其中包括近 2000 萬美元的風暴恢復和改道成本以及約 3000 萬美元的淨收入影響。

Additionally, a significant rebuild process is already underway for miles of track and multiple bridges across our Blue Ridge subdivision. While we are still evaluating the scale and timing of these capital expenditures, our early read is that rebuild costs will likely exceed a total of $200 million and the construction will take us into next year.

此外，藍嶺分區數英里長的軌道和多座橋樑的重大重建過程已經開始。雖然我們仍在評估這些資本支出的規模和時間安排，但我們初步認為重建成本可能超過 2 億美元，施工將持續到明年。

Now to the discussion of the third quarter results. Capitalizing on powerful momentum generated over the last several quarters, the ONE CSX team delivered 7% operating income growth in the quarter with EPS up double digits.

現在討論第三季業績。憑藉過去幾季產生的強勁勢頭，ONE CSX 團隊在本季實現了 7% 的營業收入成長，每股盈餘成長了兩位數。

Our proven operating model and increasingly collaborative approach with customers delivered profitable growth at strong incremental margins. In fact, combined merchandise and intermodal revenue excluding fuel has grown by at least 3% for seven consecutive quarters including 5% growth in the most recent quarter.

我們經過驗證的營運模式以及與客戶日益密切的協作方式以強勁的增量利潤實現了獲利成長。事實上，不包括燃料在內的商品和多式聯運綜合收入已連續七個季度增長至少 3%，其中最近一個季度增長 5%。

Total revenue increased by 1% impacted by lower coal revenue as well as declines in fuel recovery, other revenue, and trucking. Expense momentum continued as costs were down 2% with more detail to come on the next slide.

受煤炭收入下降以及燃料回收、其他收入和卡車運輸下降的影響，總收入增加了 1%。支出動能持續，成本下降 2%，更多細節將在下一張投影片中公佈。

Interest and other was stable compared to the prior year. While income tax expense increased $16 million with higher pretax earnings partly offset by a lower effective rate. Let's now turn to the next slide and take a closer look at expenses. Total third quarter expense fell by $36 million while lower fuel prices were a key driver, other costs were up just slightly. As efficiency gains and other items mostly offset cost from inflation and 3% volume growth.

利息及其他與上年相比穩定。雖然所得稅費用增加了 1,600 萬美元，但較高的稅前收益部分被較低的有效利率所抵銷。現在讓我們翻到下一張投影片，仔細看看費用。第三季總支出下降了 3,600 萬美元，而燃油價格下降是主要推動因素，其他成本僅略有上升。由於效率提升和其他項目大部分抵消了通貨膨脹帶來的成本和 3% 的銷售成長。

Turning to the individual line items, labor and fringe was up $45 million due to inflation and higher total head count. The sequential cost increase from the second quarter was driven by the July 1 Union Wage increase along with higher incentive compensation.

就具體項目而言，由於通貨膨脹和總人數增加，勞動力和附加費用增加了 4500 萬美元。第二季的成本環比增長是由 7 月 1 日工會工資上漲以及更高的激勵薪酬所推動的。

Employment levels have remained stable throughout this year with carload growth of 3% in excess of 2% headcount growth in Q3. I would also note about half of the year-over-year head count increase is from quality trucking conversions of outside party drivers to company drivers.

今年全年就業水準維持穩定，載客量成長 3%，超過第三季員工人數成長 2%。我還想指出，大約一半的員工人數年增來自外部司機向公司司機的優質貨運轉換。

Adjusting for this headcount would have been up 1% versus the prior year. Purchase services and other expense decreased by $25 million driven by lower casualty expense and a favourable inventory adjustment in the quarter with ongoing efficiency gains mostly offsetting inflation. Depreciation was up $13 million due to a larger asset base.

對此員工人數進行調整後，與前一年相比將增加 1%。由於本季傷亡費用下降和有利的庫存調整，採購服務和其他費用減少了 2500 萬美元，持續的效率提升主要抵消了通貨膨脹。由於資產基礎擴大，折舊增加了 1300 萬美元。

Fuel costs decreased $73 million driven by a lower gallon price and improved efficiency. The operating team delivered our best quarter of fuel efficiency in three years benefiting from both tactical operating initiatives and increased utilization of fuel saving technology. Equipment and rents decreased by $3 million while property gains were unfavourable by $7 million .

由於加侖價格下降和效率提高，燃料成本減少了 7,300 萬美元。受益於戰術營運措施和節油技術利用率的提高，營運團隊實現了三年來最好的季度燃油效率。設備和租金減少了 300 萬美元，而財產收益則減少了 700 萬美元。

Now turning to cash flow and distributions on slide 13. Free cash flow continues to be strong at over $2.2 billion . Investing for the safety, reliability and long term growth of our railroad continues to be our first priority use of capital. After fully funding these investments, we remain committed to our balanced and opportunistic approach to returning cash and have distributed over $1.9 billion to our shareholders Year-to-date.

現在轉向幻燈片 13 上的現金流量和分配。自由現金流持續強勁，超過 22 億美元。投資鐵路的安全性、可靠性和長期發展仍然是我們資本使用的首要任務。在為這些投資提供全額資金後，我們仍然致力於以平衡和機會主義的方式返還現金，今年迄今已向股東分配了超過 19 億美元。

Economic profit highlights our priority to grow operating income while maintaining capital discipline and pursuing high return investments. While lower year-to-date, economic profit grew in the third quarter. We remain focused on increasing economic profit over the long term and are confident that focus aligns with the interests of our shareholders.

經濟利潤凸顯了我們在維持資本紀律和追求高回報投資的同時增加營業收入的首要任務。儘管年初至今有所下降，但第三季經濟利潤有所增長。我們仍專注於長期增加經濟利潤，並相信這項重點符合股東的利益。

With that, let me turn it back to Joe for his closing remarks.

接下來，讓我把話題轉回喬的結案陳詞。

All right, thank you, Sean. Now we will finish our prepared remarks by going over the guidance updates for the remainder of the year. As I outlined at the beginning of the call, we are proud of what our ONE CSX team delivered in the third quarter. As planned, we grew volumes, revenue, and operating margins.

好的，謝謝你，肖恩。現在，我們將透過回顧今年剩餘時間的指導更新來完成我們準備好的發言。正如我在電話會議開始時所概述的那樣，我們對 ONE CSX 團隊在第三季交付的成果感到自豪。按照計劃，我們增加了銷量、收入和營業利潤。

Now going into the fourth quarter near term conditions look modestly more challenging. As I mentioned at an Investor Conference last month, we knew that lower diesel prices and the decline in global benchmarks for met coal would be a drag on revenue over the second half and the fourth quarter, specifically.

現在進入第四季度，短期情況看起來更具挑戰性。正如我在上個月的投資者會議上提到的，我們知道柴油價格下降和全球冶金煤基準下降將拖累下半年和第四季的收入。

Since then, we've gone through two hurricanes in our service region. Excuse me. And I've also seen volume soften in a couple key customer segments like metals and automotive. A bit more than we were expecting. Practically this means that we expect modest volume growth in the fourth quarter supported by favourable markets like chemicals and Ag that Kevin talked about that continue to perform very well for us.

從那時起，我們的服務區域經歷了兩次颶風。打擾一下。我還看到金屬和汽車等幾個關鍵客戶領域的銷售疲軟。比我們預期的要多一點。實際上，這意味著我們預計第四季度銷售將出現適度增長，這得益於凱文談到的化學品和農業等有利市場的支持，這些市場繼續對我們表現良好。

Lower fuel and coal prices together with that modest volume growth are leading us to expect a slight decrease in total revenue for the fourth quarter. As we show here, we estimate that lower fuel surcharge and the total effects of a slightly softer coal market will lead to roughly $200 million in revenue effects year-over- year just on their own.

較低的燃料和煤炭價格以及溫和的銷售成長使我們預計第四季度的總收入將略有下降。正如我們在此所示，我們估計燃油附加費降低和煤炭市場略有疲軟的整體影響將導致年比收入影響約 2 億美元。

Our merchandise franchise continues to run very well and our operations team is pushing ahead with efficiency measures they are having real benefits. However, slightly lower revenue combined with additional expenses as we reroute and rebuild after the hurricanes are going to limit our near term margin gains.

我們的商品特許經營繼續運作良好，我們的營運團隊正在推進效率措施，他們正在獲得真正的好處。然而，收入略有下降，加上颶風過後我們重新調整路線和重建的額外費用，將限制我們的近期利潤成長。

We're still aiming for $2.5 billion in total CapEx this year. But as Sean described, we will likely see some additional capital needs for hurricane rebuilding, some of which will occur in 2024 calendar year. Finally, there's no change to our commitment to a balanced optimistic approach to capital returns via buybacks and a growing dividend.

我們今年的資本支出總額目標仍為 25 億美元。但正如 Sean 所描述的，我們可能會看到颶風重建需要一些額外的資金，其中一些將在 2024 年發生。最後，我們對透過回購和增加股利以平衡樂觀的方式實現資本回報的承諾沒有改變。

Let me close with this. Would have given many updates today. There is some near term uncertainty in the market and we are rebuilding after two major hurricanes. So we have had to adjust our short term assumptions in response. All of that said, the bottom line is that CSX is running very well and we are building momentum across the railroad.

讓我結束這一點。今天會提供很多更新。市場近期存在一些不確定性，我們正在經歷兩次重大颶風後進行重建。因此，我們不得不調整我們的短期假設作為回應。綜上所述，最重要的是，CSX 運作良好，我們正在整個鐵路上建立勢頭。

This continues across the second half of 2024 and we keep building in a 2025. We're excited that just in a few weeks, we'll be hosting many of you at our Investor Day in Amelia Island. We're going to give you more detail on our strategies to deliver sustainable, profitable growth. We encourage you to bring your best questions for the whole team. For now ready to answer your question about the quarter. Matthew, please start the Q&A process.

這種情況將持續到 2024 年下半年，我們將在 2025 年繼續建造。我們很高興幾週後，我們將在阿米莉亞島舉辦的投資者日招待你們中的許多人。我們將向您詳細介紹我們實現可持續獲利成長的策略。我們鼓勵您向整個團隊提出最好的問題。現在準備回答您有關本季的問題。馬修，請開始問答過程。

Thank you, Joe. We will now proceed to our question and answer session. As you all can appreciate to make sure that everyone has the opportunity to take part in the time that we have. We ask you to please limit yourselves to one and only one question. Operator, we're ready to start the process.

謝謝你，喬。我們現在將進入問答環節。正如你們大家都可以理解的那樣，我們確保每個人都有機會參與我們的活動。我們要求您只回答一個且僅一個問題。操作員，我們已準備好開始該過程。

Thank you. The floor is now open for questions. (Operator Instructions)

謝謝。現在可以提問。（操作員說明）

Brian Ossenbeck, JP Morgan.

布萊恩‧奧森貝克，摩根大通。

Hey, good afternoon. Thanks for taking the question. Just wanted to ask a big picture question about price/cost and your ability or how strongly you think you can get back to a positive spread and price/cost. Next year you have the labor negotiations that have already set a price for increase on the headcount side or sorry, on the average comp side.

嘿，下午好。感謝您提出問題。只是想問一個關於價格/成本和您的能力的大局問題，或者您認為您可以恢復正利差和價格/成本的能力有多大。明年的勞資談判已經確定了員工人數增加的價格，或者抱歉，在平均薪資方面。

So you can give us a little sense in terms of how those conversations are going with customers. Now that that marker has already been set in the market. And if there's anything on the other side, you hope to get out of those negotiations when you work towards more of the work rest tools. Thank you.

因此，您可以讓我們了解與客戶的對話進度。現在這個標記已經在市場上設定了。如果有其他方面的問題，您希望在努力獲得更多工作休息工具時擺脫這些談判。謝謝。

Brian and Sean, I'll start and then kind of kick it over to Kevin to talk about conversations with the customers. But just so when you think about price/cost, we've been consistent saying all year long that spread between dollars of price and cost of inflation has been positive all year long and about as positive as we've seen in the last decade.

Brian 和 Sean，我先開始，然後交給 Kevin 討論與客戶的對話。但正是如此，當你考慮價格/成本時，我們全年都一致表示，美元價格與通膨成本之間的利差全年都是正值，並且與我們在過去十年中看到的一樣正。

So, we're not necessarily seeing anything negative in that regard and not seeing a turn in that either. So that's very favourable. In terms of kind of a set up in the inflationary environment for next year, wage inflation, we expect north of 4% next year. These tentative agreements, some of which have already been ratified are at 4% mid-year next year.

因此，我們不一定會在這方面看到任何負面影響，也不會看到任何轉變。所以這是非常有利的。就明年的通膨環境而言，我們預計明年的薪資通膨率將超過 4%。這些暫定協議（其中一些已經獲得批准）明年年中的稅率為 4%。

We have 4.5%. We just increased here in July. So that'll carry forward. That's 4.25% for next year. For wages, health and welfare expenses look like they may actually be lower than that. So I think, wage inflation including health and welfare will actually be less than four.

我們有 4.5%。我們七月剛剛增加了這裡。所以會發揚光大。明年的成長率為 4.25%。對於工資、健康和福利費用來說，看起來實際上可能低於這個數字。所以我認為，包括醫療和福利在內的薪資通膨實際上將低於四。

And then inflation across the rest of the book, likely to kind of be in line with what you're seeing in terms of overall PPI maybe call it 2.5% to 3% somewhere in that ballpark. So it's not like the equation is extraordinarily challenging and I think kick it over to Kevin to talk about conversations and how that's going with the customers.

然後本書其餘部分的通貨膨脹率可能與您所看到的總體 PPI 一致，可能會在該範圍內的某個地方稱為 2.5% 至 3%。所以這個方程式並不是特別具有挑戰性，我認為把它交給凱文來討論對話以及與客戶的進展如何。

Yeah, I think there's a couple of factors certainly. I think we've been highly successful this year and exceeded our plan, coming in the year despite a trucking market that obviously has been more persistently down than what we had thought.

是的，我認為肯定有幾個因素。我認為我們今年取得了巨大成功，並且超出了我們的計劃，儘管卡車運輸市場顯然比我們想像的持續下滑。

So I think that's probably an opportunity next year. So it's a watch item, but probably more an opportunity than a risk. Hopefully, as we move through the year and that's where we're competing today, more and more is versus that truck. And so that would be a helpful dynamic for us. But overall, we do expect inflation to come down over time and that would be reflected in some of our price.

所以我認為明年這可能是個機會。所以這是一個值得關注的項目，但可能更多的是機會而不是風險。希望隨著這一年的過去，這就是我們今天競爭的地方，越來越多的人與那輛卡車競爭。因此，這對我們來說是一種有益的動力。但總體而言，我們確實預期通膨會隨著時間的推移而下降，這將反映在我們的一些價格中。

But we still obviously look for ways to cover our cost and do those things in the right way, but really focused on delivering service. And if we deliver the right service and that service continues to improve and customers see the value in that and we're able to price for that service.

但我們顯然仍在尋找方法來支付我們的成本並以正確的方式做這些事情，但真正專注於提供服務。如果我們提供正確的服務並且該服務不斷改進並且客戶看到其中的價值，我們就能夠為該服務定價。

And Brian, it's Joe. One last thing you mentioned work rules at the end there, a three part question. The reality is Mike myself, many of us believe that in order to have the real meaningful conversations with our union partners on safety and work rules, you have to get beyond the wages and the benefits conversation. And that's one of the reasons why we've been so fortunate to reach these kind of agreements and be able to get past that.

布萊恩，是喬。您最後提到的最後一件事是工作規則，這是一個由三個部分組成的問題。現實是麥克本人，我們很多人都相信，為了與我們的工會夥伴就安全和工作規則進行真正有意義的對話，你必須超越工資和福利的對話。這就是我們如此幸運地達成此類協議並能夠克服這些協議的原因之一。

So that we can then spend the time over the next several years working together on our improving our efficiency, improving our safety. But also listening to our employees on their needs for work rules for time work, like balance those kind of things for scheduling. We're excited about the opportunity to do that in partnership once we get past the kind of national bargaining type topics of general wage increases and benefits.

這樣我們就可以在接下來的幾年共同努力提高效率、提高安全性。但也要傾聽我們的員工對時間工作規則的需求，例如平衡行程等事情。一旦我們克服了普遍工資增長和福利等全國性談判類型的話題，我們很高興有機會透過合作來做到這一點。

And Sean mentioned that we're really excited about the fact that we're actually going to be able to reduce some of the health care related costs associated with our union employees next year. So a lot more to come on that. Thanks.

肖恩提到，我們真的很興奮，因為明年我們實際上將能夠減少與工會員工相關的一些醫療保健相關費用。所以還有很多事情要做。謝謝。

Thank you. Ari Rosa, Citi.

謝謝。阿里·羅莎，花旗銀行。

Great. Thank you so much for taking the question. So, I'm curious, obviously we're dealing with a loose tracking market. It's been that way for a while. In terms of upside to intermodal pricing for next year, maybe you could give us some indication on how those conversations are progressing with customers and then obviously 1% revenue growth is a little bit soft.

偉大的。非常感謝您提出這個問題。所以，我很好奇，顯然我們正在應對一個寬鬆的追蹤市場。這樣已經有一段時間了。就明年多式聯運定價的上漲而言，也許您可以向我們提供一些有關與客戶的對話進展情況的指示，然後顯然 1% 的收入增長有點疲軟。

Is there anything you can do in terms of mix to maybe accelerate that beyond that kind of low, single digit type number whether it's focusing more on the merchandise side or again fixing that mix on the intermodal pricing. Thanks.

在混合方面，您可以做些什麼來加速超越那種低個位數類型的數字，無論是更多地關注商品方面還是再次修復聯運定價上的混合。謝謝。

Yeah. Well, obviously, the success we've had in merchandise is a very good mix factor for our business. And, you'll hear in November that there's a lot of exciting things that we see. But within our merchandise markets and what we're doing and the teams that got a lot of great work. But I want to pre-empt that today and we'll share that in November.

是的。顯然，我們在商品方面取得的成功對我們的業務來說是一個非常好的組合因素。而且，您會在 11 月聽說我們看到了很多令人興奮的事情。但在我們的商品市場、我們正在做的事情以及做出了很多出色工作的團隊中。但今天我想先發制人，我們將在 11 月分享這一點。

But, when we think about intermodal pricing, there was an intermodal customer of ours that I spoke yesterday and they're certainly closer to the market dynamics on a day to day basis than maybe we are. But I think there is some hope that at least we brought here and at some point next year, we would anticipate some increases because the truckers out there aren't very profitable right now and they end up having to cover their costs at some point.

但是，當我們考慮多式聯運定價時，我昨天談到了我們的一位多式聯運客戶，他們肯定比我們更接近日常的市場動態。但我認為至少我們帶來了一些希望，並且在明年的某個時候，我們預計會有一些成長，因為那裡的卡車司機現在利潤不是很高，他們最終不得不在某個時候支付成本。

So we're seeing probably slower than people expected supply coming out of the market and that will adjust. And I think that will provide opportunities to convert more volume in the east and hopefully at better rates. And as you know, in many cases, we're tied to that. Some -- we have some spot market business and others we follow the price as our customers benefit from that. So it'll be a gradual path forward. But I do think it's probably a better backdrop than what we saw in 2024.

因此，我們看到市場上的供應量可能比人們預期的要慢，這將會進行調整。我認為這將提供機會在東部轉化更多的銷量，並希望以更好的價格。如您所知，在許多情況下，我們都與此息息相關。有些－我們有一些現貨市場業務，而有些我們則遵循價格，因為我們的客戶從中受益。因此，這將是一條漸進的道路。但我確實認為這可能是比 2024 年更好的背景。

Thank you. Jonathan Chappelle, Evercore ISI.

謝謝。喬納森·查佩爾，Evercore ISI。

Thank you. Good afternoon. Sean, you threw a lot of numbers at us on the short term stuff. $200 million from fuel and coal and then the $50 million from the hurricane impact. I know it's still early in the quarter. I know there's a lot that can happen. But when you take those things mix in kind of a softer auto and metals, when you talk about revenue being down moderately and operating margin, reducing, so I'm guessing that's deteriorate.

謝謝。午安.肖恩，你在短期問題上向我們拋出了很多數字。 2 億美元來自燃料和煤炭，5,000 萬美元來自颶風影響。我知道現在還處於本季初期。我知道可能會發生很多事情。但是，當你將這些因素與汽車和金屬的疲軟結合起來時，當你談到收入適度下降和營業利潤率下降時，我猜情況會惡化。

Sequentially, what kind of magnitude are we looking at there? Are we talking about tens of basis points or substantially greater based on what you see today?

接下來，我們看到的震級是多少？根據您今天所看到的情況，我們正在談論的是數十個基點還是更高的基點？

Yeah, Jonathan, there are a lot of numbers. So yes and, and you got them. All right. So thank you. So Joe mentioned the revenue headwinds that those are year-over-year in terms of fuel and coal. That probably translates into about $100 million of operating income headwinds year-over-year in Q4 and then add on that, what we're estimating for now to be roughly $50 million from the hurricane.

是的，喬納森，有很多數字。所以是的，你得到了它們。好的。所以謝謝你。因此喬提到了燃料和煤炭方面的收入逆風。這可能意味著第四季營業收入年減約 1 億美元，加上我們目前估計颶風帶來的損失約為 5,000 萬美元。

That's a significant -- that significant headwind on a year-over-year basis, that'll make it challenging to grow, operating income, challenging to grow margins. What that means on a sequential basis is, normally you would see seasonality, Q3 to Q4 margins might get a little bit worse.

這是一個重大的——同比的重大逆風，這將使營業收入成長面臨挑戰，利潤成長面臨挑戰。這意味著，按順序計算，通常您會看到季節性因素，第三季到第四季的利潤率可能會變得更糟。

They'll probably be worse than normal seasonality as a result of all the dynamics that we're seeing there, including the impact of the storms in terms of how much worse, I think we're still working through clean up and recovery.

由於我們在那裡看到的所有動態，包括風暴的影響，情況可能會比正常的季節性更糟糕，我認為我們仍在努力進行清理和恢復。

Still hoping that we can recover some of the revenue that's been lost. And obviously, keeping focused on efficiency efforts. Mike mentioned, even with the volume of 3% we took, we took starts down 3% in the third quarter, there's a lot of momentum there, there's some things that we can do to help offset it, but it will certainly be worse than normal seasonality in terms of margins and operating income Q3 to Q4.

仍然希望我們能夠收回一些損失的收入。顯然，要持續關注效率工作。麥克提到，即使我們取得了 3% 的銷量，第三季的開工率也下降了 3%，那裡有很大的動力，我們可以採取一些措施來幫助抵消它，但它肯定會比第三季度至第四季的利潤率和營業收入呈現正常季節性。

Scott Group, Wolf research.

斯科特集團，沃爾夫研究。

Hey, thanks, afternoon. So, Mike, as you're trying to balance service and efficiency, any thoughts on head count trends from here and overall sort of cost trends? And then, Sean, I know you had a comment about the comp per employee stepping up sequentially, any thoughts on how to think about that going forward?

嘿，謝謝，下午。那麼，麥克，當您試圖平衡服務和效率時，您對這裡的人數趨勢和整體成本趨勢有什麼想法嗎？然後，肖恩，我知道您對每位員工的薪酬按順序提高有過評論，您對如何思考未來有什麼想法嗎？

Hey there, Scott. Let's start with headcount. First of all, our focus is on retention when it comes to headcount. Overall, we're hiring for attrition, people leaving and it's actually at an escalated rate than what we want. So that's a big focus is to bring that rate down because there's churn in the headcount, people that are here for two years and so and then they leave.

嘿，斯科特。我們先從人數開始。首先，我們的重點是員工人數的保留。整體而言，我們在招募人員時會考慮人員流失和離職，但實際上，這種情況的發生率比我們想要的還要高。因此，重點是降低這一比率，因為員工數量存在流失，在這裡待了兩年的人，然後就離開了。

Second, we're good in pretty much every location with a couple of locations in the Northeast that we're still hiring for. It's not a big number. But I don't see -- I see our head count getting better for that matter as we get more fluid. You got to remember -- maybe you don't, but in July, we probably had our best operating and customer service metric month throughout the year, and then we got into all these difficulties. So, getting the railway back in shape here over the next few weeks is job number one.

其次，我們幾乎在每個地點都做得很好，在東北部有幾個地點我們仍在招募。這不是一個大數字。但我不認為——我認為隨著我們的流動性增加，我們的人員數量會變得更好。你必須記住——也許你不記得，但在七月份，我們可能經歷了全年最好的營運和客戶服務指標月份，然後我們陷入了所有這些困難。因此，在接下來的幾週內讓鐵路恢復正常是首要任務。

The cost that you referred to -- our focus is to continue to deliver the service, but make sure that we're extremely efficient not hung up on anything other than the cost it takes us to get there and what they need. And so I see the cost continuing to be a betterment there, it's just with the disruption to our network. As Sean has mentioned, this next quarter is going to be not where we want to be, but the approach we've taken where we've minimized the amount of starts through all this disruption still handled more volume. I see more of that, yes. No question.

您提到的成本——我們的重點是繼續提供服務，但要確保我們非常高效，除了我們到達那裡所需的成本和他們的需求之外，不會掛念任何其他東西。因此，我認為那裡的成本繼續改善，只是我們的網路受到了乾擾。正如肖恩（Sean）所提到的，下個季度將不會達到我們想要的水平，但我們採取的方法（通過所有這些中斷最大限度地減少啟動數量）仍然處理了更多的數量。我看到更多這樣的事情，是的。毫無疑問。

Yeah. And I'd just add on the head count piece there, Scott. We normally -- at least last year, we saw an increase in head count from Q3 to Q4. We'll probably see an increase this year, just very modest. And the reason for that is you've got the train and engine hiring pipeline, what we're hiring for right now essentially is midyear next year, vacation peak so those folks will get marked up and qualified right about the time and attrition gets a little bit higher about that time. But that will be modest, we still expect volume to grow in excess of headcount, especially when you normalize for the quality company driver piece that I talked about.

是的。我只想添加人數統計部分，斯科特。通常，至少去年，我們看到員工數量從第三季到第四季有所增加。今年我們可能會看到成長，但幅度很小。原因是你已經有了火車和發動機的招聘管道，我們現在招聘的基本上是明年年中，假期高峰期，所以這些人會在適當的時候得到標記和合格，並且人員流失會得到很大的改善。但這將是適度的，我們仍然預計銷售的成長將超過員工人數，特別是當你將我談到的優質公司驅動因素標準化時。

In terms of comp per employee, we normally see a little bit of a step up Q3 to Q4, and that's related to a few different factors. The first is that you start winding up some of your capital programs. So, we have employees that charge more of their time to operating expense at that time of the year, vacations as well. And then I would add on to that, this year, the impacts of the storm driving some higher overtime in the early weeks of the quarter here. So all those factors, I don't think it's going to be significant, but we should see a little bit of an increase in labor per employee.

就員工人均薪資而言，我們通常會看到第三季到第四季略有上升，這與幾個不同的因素有關。首先是你開始結束一些資本計畫。因此，我們的員工在一年中的這個時候將更多的時間用於營運費用，假期也是如此。然後我想補充一點，今年風暴的影響導致本季前幾週的加班時間增加。因此，所有這些因素，我認為這不會很重要，但我們應該看到每位員工的勞動力增加。

Tom Wadewitz, UBS.

湯姆‧瓦德維茨，瑞銀集團。

Great. Yeah, good afternoon. Wanted to just -- two questions really for Kevin. How do you think about the sensitivity of you're doing this multiyear work and industrial development, a lot of -- kind of, I guess, a long-time horizon work? Do you think there's some degree of sensitivity those projects to the cycle? It does seem like you talked about a mixed outlook, and it seems like there have been some weakening in certain markets in 3Q, is that something that people slow down projects? And I don't know if there is some kind of election-related impact. But just wanted to see if you could offer any thoughts about maybe how cycle and other uncertainty might affect how rapidly projects come on in '25, '26. Thank you.

偉大的。是的，下午好。我想問凱文兩個問題。您如何看待您正在進行的這項多年工作和工業發展的敏感性，我想，這是一項長期工作？您認為這些項目對週期有一定程度的敏感度嗎？您似乎確實談到了前景喜憂參半，而且第三季度某些市場似乎出現了一些疲軟，這是人們放慢專案速度的原因嗎？我不知道是否會產生某種與選舉相關的影響。但只是想看看您是否可以就週期和其他不確定性可能如何影響 25 年、26 年專案的進展速度提供任何想法。謝謝。

Yeah. I think -- it's certainly a factor. And I think we've seen announcements, obviously, on the EV side, which is actually -- you'll see this in November, a very small portion of our portfolio, and we've adjusted for that when you see the portfolio. But that is a factor. I mean, with the economics, what the economy is doing at the time will either accelerate or decelerate some of these.

是的。我認為——這肯定是一個因素。我認為我們顯然已經看到了電動車方面的公告，這實際上是——你會在11 月看到這一點，這只是我們投資組合的一小部分，當你看到投資組合時，我們已經對此進行了調整。但這是一個因素。我的意思是，就經濟學而言，當時的經濟狀況要么會加速，要么會減速其中的一些。

But when the shovel is in the ground and the capital is already being put to work, those projects want to obviously go to utilization and get a return. And we're seeing a lot of these projects have shovels in the ground currently. So, we have a lot of visibility that they're going to happen. Could they slip by three months or six months?

但當鏟子已經落地並且資本已經投入使用時，這些項目顯然希望得到利用並獲得回報。我們看到很多這樣的項目目前已經落地。因此，我們很清楚它們將會發生。它們會延後三個月或六個月嗎？

I think that's possible. We're not -- I don't think we're seeing it in a broad way other than maybe the EV, obviously, announcements that we've seen, but those are 6 to 12 months ago. So yes, I think that's a factor, but I think we feel very, very confident given what we've seen in the capital already spent in a lot of these larger projects for us that those are going to be tailwinds for us. And we'll give you a lot more visibility to that in November.

我認為這是可能的。我們不是——我認為除了電動車之外，我們並沒有以更廣泛的方式看待它，顯然，我們已經看到了這些公告，但那些都是 6 到 12 個月前的事了。所以，是的，我認為這是一個因素，但我認為，鑑於我們在首都已經在許多大型項目上花費的資金，我們感到非常非常有信心，這些將成為我們的順風車。我們將在 11 月為您提供更多資訊。

Brandon Oglenski, Barclays.

布蘭登·奧格倫斯基，巴克萊銀行。

Hey, good afternoon and thanks for taking the question. Joe, I know you addressed this with the first one, but maybe I think it's worth coming back to the new five-year agreement that you guys signed with, I think, 3.5% inflation locked in. A lot of investors just question like why go early there, especially as inflation is coming down, like couldn't you get a better deal if you waited? But in your response, you said like there's things we're looking to do differently here. And I know when you came to this industry two years ago, you said, look, labor relations are something I want to focus on. So, can you elaborate on what you hope to get out of this on the other end?

嘿，下午好，感謝您提出問題。喬，我知道你在第一個協議中解決了這個問題，但也許我認為值得回到你們簽署的新的五年協議上，我認為，鎖定了 3.5% 的通膨率。許多投資者只是問為什麼要早點去那裡，特別是在通貨膨脹正在下降的情況下，如果你等待，你不能得到更好的交易嗎？但在您的回覆中，您說我們希望在這裡做一些不同的事情。我知道你兩年前來到這個行業的時候，你說，你看，勞動關係是我想要關注的事情。那麼，您能詳細說明一下您希望從另一端得到什麼嗎？

Sure, Brandon. Thanks. I mean, first of all, when we all travel the network and talk to our employees, I can tell you the single largest thing, other than safety, which is always a topic of conversation that employees told us was they didn't like what happened last time. They didn't feel at any way, shape or form part of ONE team and didn't feel like they were appreciated in value. They went three years without a raise during very highly inflationary time period and during COVID, when they were essential workers and all the things that happened there.

當然，布蘭登。謝謝。我的意思是，首先，當我們都在網路上旅行並與我們的員工交談時，我可以告訴你除了安全之外最重要的事情，這始終是員工告訴我們的談話主題，因為他們不喜歡什麼上次發生過。他們不覺得自己以任何方式、形狀或形式屬於一個團隊，也不覺得自己的價值受到重視。在通貨膨脹非常嚴重的時期和新冠疫情期間，他們連續三年沒有加薪，當時他們是重要的工人，以及那裡發生的一切。

And both the union presidents that we spoke to and the union leaders and the employees all said, we don't want to do that again. And I can tell you, having been there on the days they were voting, Congress told us, don't come back here again. So that's a long way of saying that it's really important to remember that no one was satisfied or happy with what happened last time. So if we just go on the same path we've always been, we'll repeat that. And we'll say, once again, everyone was unhappy.

我們採訪過的工會主席、工會領袖和員工都表示，我們不想再這樣做了。我可以告訴你，國會告訴我們，他們投票的時候就在那裡，不要再回到這裡。因此，從長遠來看，記住沒有人對上次發生的事情感到滿意或高興非常重要。因此，如果我們繼續走我們一直走的路，我們就會重複這一點。我們會再說一遍，每個人都不高興。

And as Mike talked about, one of the most important things that we do for our network is stabilize our employment levels, get the experienced people to stay and create an environment where people want to be here to help us provide great service and do it safely and efficiently. All those have come from people who are motivated to be part of the team, but also who have experience and stay here.

正如麥克所說，我們為我們的人脈所做的最重要的事情之一就是穩定我們的就業水平，讓有經驗的人留下來，並創造一個人們願意在這裡幫助我們提供優質服務並安全地開展工作的環境且有效率。所有這些人都來自那些有動力成為團隊一員、但也有經驗並留在這裡的人。

So, we sat down as an industry and talked a lot about what happened last time, and we endeavored as a coalition to try and reach a voluntary agreement early with willing Union Partners, which was over several -- we weren't able to do it as a coalition, but then quickly we were able to do that with CSX. And as you saw in Oakland Southern and BNSF followed pretty quickly. The good news here is there's been basically a pattern established, for lack of a better word, of what the economics are going to be.

因此，我們作為一個行業坐下來，談論了很多上次發生的事情，我們作為一個聯盟，努力嘗試儘早與願意的聯盟合作夥伴達成自願協議，但我們無法做到這一點它作為一個聯盟，但很快我們就能夠透過CSX 做到這一點。正如您在奧克蘭南方航空和 BNSF 看到的那樣，他們很快就跟進了。好消息是，由於缺乏更好的詞彙來描述經濟的走向，基本上已經建立了一種模式。

Sean mentioned, there's going to be some health care reduction costs coming to us and to our employees next year, which is great. But also, we start with the 4% next year, but the fifth year is at 3.0% and that's really important. So, it goes 4%, 3.75%, 3.5%, 3.25%, 3% that's really important because yes, inflation is coming down. You have to remember that we're in an environment where people are seeing these headlines from Boeing or the ILA or other things that are bigger numbers because they're going back to periods before COVID in some cases where they didn't get extensive raises.

肖恩提到，明年我們和我們的員工將會減少一些醫療保健費用，這很好。而且，明年我們從 4% 開始，但第五年是 3.0%，這非常重要。所以，它會上漲 4%、3.75%、3.5%、3.25%、3%，這非常重要，因為是的，通貨膨脹正在下降。你必須記住，在我們所處的環境中，人們會看到來自波音或ILA 或其他更大數字的頭條新聞，因為在某些情況下他們會回到新冠疫情之前的時期，當時他們沒有獲得大幅加薪。

So, there's a lot of mixed messaging out there. Our view is this is the right approach for CSX, it's the right approach for how we're working as ONE CSX team to make sure our employees feel valued and appreciated and respected and listened to and that our belief is that you get the national agreements out of the way on the wages and benefits and then you can go to work on how you work together to improve the efficiency of the network, work on safety, as Mike talked about, and also listen to other issues that need to be resolved.

因此，存在著許多混雜的消息。我們的觀點是，這對CSX 來說是正確的方法，這是我們作為一個CSX 團隊如何工作的正確方法，以確保我們的員工感到受到重視、讚賞、尊重和傾聽，並且我們相信您會得到國家協議工資和福利方面的問題可以解決，然後你們就可以一起研究如何共同提高網路的效率，安全方面的工作，正如麥克所說，並聽取其他需要解決的問題。

We have five years to work on that now without the noise of the national negotiations. If you look at what happened last time, we never really got too many of the local work rule stuff because we -- took three years through the national agreement. So that's how we're looking at it. I think you can see the efficiency that we saw in the third quarter and the incremental margins on the volume in the third quarter were substantial. And that's the power of this network when we have our employees and everybody working together to serve the customer efficiently.

現在，在沒有全國談判的干擾的情況下，我們有五年的時間來解決這個問題。如果你看看上次發生的事情，我們從來沒有真正了解太多當地工作規則的內容，因為我們花了三年時間才完成國家協議。這就是我們的看法。我認為您可以看到我們在第三季看到的效率以及第三季銷售的增量利潤率非常可觀。當我們的員工和每個人共同努力為客戶提供高效服務時，這就是這個網路的力量。

Christian Wetherbee, Wells Fargo.

克里斯蒂安‧韋瑟比，富國銀行。

Hey, thanks, good afternoon guys. I know it sounds like fourth quarter from a margin standpoint, difficult to make year-over-year headway given some of the headwinds that you're talking about which makes sense. I guess when you think about it for a full year, I think that probably means sort of little margin in '24. I know I'm asking you guys to look out a little bit here, but kind of conceptually, with the environment that we have today with sort of weakness in some areas, maybe some strength in some company-specific strengths in other parts of your network. Is this the type of environment that you think you can consistently grow margins in? I guess what are the sort of puts and takes that you think you need to see as we move into '25 for that to continue to happen or resume to happen again?

嘿，謝謝，大家下午好。我知道從利潤率的角度來看，這聽起來像是第四季度，考慮到你所說的一些逆風，很難取得同比進展，這是有道理的。我想當你考慮一整年的時候，我認為這可能意味著 24 年的利潤微乎其微。我知道我要求你們在這裡多加留意，但從概念上講，鑑於我們今天所處的環境，在某些領域存在一些弱點，也許在你們其他領域的某些公司特定的優勢方面有一些優勢。 。您認為在這種環境中可以持續增加利潤嗎？我猜想，當我們進入 25 年時，您認為您需要看到哪些看跌期權和看跌期權，以便這種情況繼續發生或再次發生？

Yeah, Christian, thanks for your question. Obviously, for '25 specifically, we're still in the middle of the planning process, so it's a bit early to kind of definitively say anything. But what I would say, broadly speaking, and longer term, we'll highlight this at the investor conference in a few weeks as well is the setup for CSX in terms of where the service product is at how that's impacting the customer experience and the interactions that that's creating, which translate into growth opportunities, not to mention continuing to be able to price at or above inflation is very supportive.

是的，克里斯蒂安，謝謝你的問題。顯然，對於 25 年來說，我們仍處於規劃過程的中間，所以現在明確地說任何事情都還為時過早。但我想說的是，從廣義上講，從長遠來看，我們也將在幾週後的投資者會議上強調這一點，以及 CSX 的設置，即服務產品在何處影響客戶體驗和由此產生的互動，轉化為成長機會，更不用說繼續能夠以等於或高於通膨的價格定價，這是非常有支持性的。

The other piece of that, of course, is the fact that the network has capacity. We have locomotives, we have crews. Like Mike mentioned, there are some places we're still hiring. But for the most part, we're only hiring for attrition, we've got line of road capacity. So, you take all that together, it's a good setup for strong incremental margins. There's always things, we can't control that could make it more challenging or easier for us to achieve margin improvement and operating income growth, which, frankly, is the first goal. Operating margin is really sort of the outcome of all of it as we grow into the existing capacity.

當然，另一件事是網路具有容量這一事實。我們有機車，我們有工作人員。正如麥克所提到的，我們仍在某些地方招募。但在大多數情況下，我們只是為了自然減員而招聘，我們有道路通行能力。因此，將所有這些綜合起來，這是實現強勁增量利潤的良好設定。總是有一些我們無法控制的事情可能會使我們實現利潤率提高和營業收入成長更具挑戰性或更容易，坦白說，這是第一個目標。營業利潤率實際上是我們擴大現有產能時所有這些因素的結果。

Fuel prices are down. If you look at where they're expected to be next year, it should be another headwind for us. Export coal prices seem to have stabilized. But if you carry that out to next year, that would be a headwind for us next year. We're going to do a lot of construction on the Howard Street Tunnel next year in Baltimore that will cause some reroutes, some network disruption, not to mention the rebuild coming out of these storms.

燃油價格下降。如果你看看他們明年的預期，這對我們來說應該是另一個阻力。出口煤炭價格似乎已經穩定下來。但如果你把這種情況延續到明年，那對我們明年來說將是一個阻力。明年我們將在巴爾的摩的霍華德街隧道進行大量建設，這將導致一些路線改變、一些網路中斷，更不用說這些風暴後的重建工作了。

So, there are some things that will make it a little more challenging. We may see some tailwinds from the trucking market. We're watching that closely and hopeful that the environment there is a little easier next year than it was the previous year. But certainly, longer term, having the capacity to grow and continuing to deliver a consistent high level of service to the customer is a winning equation for us.

因此，有些事情會讓事情變得更具挑戰性。我們可能會看到卡車運輸市場的一些動力。我們正在密切關注這一情況，並希望明年的環境會比前一年稍微輕鬆一些。但當然，從長遠來看，擁有成長能力並繼續為客戶提供一致的高水準服務對我們來說是一個制勝方程式。

Daniel Imbro, Stephens.

丹尼爾·因布羅，史蒂芬斯。

Hey, good evening guys. Thanks for taking our questions. I guess, Kevin, I wanted to dig into just the volume growth side. I mean you mentioned some share wins in truck to rail conversions. I'm curious if you can just add more color around maybe the cadence of wins or what categories they fell into during the quarter. And then I think there's some concerns out among investors around merchandise pricing. So, I'm curious how is merchandise pricing out in the market today? And are you seeing business that you're winning being more price competitive than past bids? Or there's any change in that as you win this business? Thanks.

嘿，大家晚上好。感謝您回答我們的問題。凱文，我想我只想深入研究銷售成長方面。我的意思是，您提到了卡車到鐵路轉換方面的一些份額增長。我很好奇你是否可以在本季獲勝的節奏或獲勝的類別中添加更多色彩。然後我認為投資者對商品定價存在一些擔憂。那麼，我很好奇今天市面上的商品定價如何？您是否發現您贏得的業務比過去的投標更具價格競爭力？或者說，當你贏得這項業務後，情況會發生什麼變化嗎？謝謝。

Yeah. We certainly compete every day, right? And we have a great service product that's only getting better, and that's obviously been re-emphasized by some of the surveys that we do with our customers. So that's certainly a lot easier environment to sell into that than in an environment where your service isn't great. And we experienced that a couple of years ago where we were challenged with obviously head count and some other things. So, nothing's changed from that perspective, and the team is focused on that.

是的。我們當然每天都在競爭，對吧？我們擁有出色的服務產品，並且只會變得更好，我們對客戶進行的一些調查顯然再次強調了這一點。因此，與服務品質不佳的環境相比，在這種環境下推銷產品肯定要容易得多。幾年前我們就經歷過這樣的情況，我們明顯面臨人員數量和其他一些問題的挑戰。因此，從這個角度來看，一切都沒有改變，團隊正在關注這一點。

We want to deliver value to the customer and the value -- when we're able to do that through service, the customers are willing to pay for it. And we're always looking for ways where we can provide value outside of price, can we cycle their assets and reduce their capital spend and do other things that create efficiencies for our customers. And those are great discussions that we have all the time and probably more so today that with Mike and his team are being very helpful in those conversations.

我們希望為客戶提供價值，當我們能夠透過服務做到這一點時，客戶就願意為此付費。我們一直在尋找能夠提供價格之外的價值的方法，我們能否循環利用他們的資產並減少他們的資本支出以及做其他為我們的客戶創造效率的事情。這些都是我們一直以來的精彩討論，今天可能更是如此，麥克和他的團隊在這些對話中非常有幫助。

So, there's not a big dramatic change in that. As we go into next year, as I mentioned, the trucking market, Sean touched on this, I think that's helpful. We are successfully converting truck volume in our merchandise franchise, which I can say is probably more than what we've done since I've been in this role. And we've got a momentum around that. What could even inflect that higher is certainly a tighter trucking market where customers aren't seeing savings by doing nothing.

所以，這並沒有什麼大的戲劇性變化。當我們進入明年時，正如我所提到的，貨運市場，肖恩談到了這一點，我認為這很有幫助。我們正在成功地改變我們的商品特許經營中的卡車數量，我可以說這可能比我擔任這個職位以來我們所做的更多。我們對此有動力。甚至可能影響這一價格上漲的肯定是卡車運輸市場的緊張，客戶無法透過無所作為來節省成本。

When you sit around and you have to do nothing, you're getting savings, you're not as compelled to maybe move some of that freight over to the rail. When that changes, and that environment changes, I think the team is really ready to capitalize on that. So, I think that's -- we're hopefully in the early innings of that. But despite all of those headwinds on the trucking market, we have converted in areas across the board, and you're seeing it in our numbers, forest products in other areas, metals and equipment. We expect some great conversion there over time by the team, and we see those opportunities more and more as we move into next year and the years beyond that.

當你無所事事地坐著時，你就會節省開支，你就不會被迫將部分貨物轉移到鐵路上。當這種情況發生變化、環境變化時，我認為團隊已經準備好利用這一點。所以，我認為我們希望處於早期階段。但是，儘管卡車運輸市場面臨所有這些阻力，我們已經在各個領域進行了全面轉型，您可以從我們的數據、其他領域的林產品、金屬和設備中看到這一點。我們預計隨著時間的推移，團隊會發生巨大的轉變，隨著我們進入明年和以後的幾年，我們會越來越多地看到這些機會。

Jordan Alliger, Goldman Sachs.

喬丹·阿利格，高盛。

Yeah. Hi, just a question. You indicated in your remarks that you're seeing a modest improvement or uptick or something along those lines for domestic intermodal. I'm wondering if you can give a little more color on that kind of looking now relative to international, which I know had been really driving things in intermodal. And is it enough to sort of move the needle on your yield for intermodal at this point?

是的。你好，只是一個問題。您在演講中表示，您看到國內多式聯運略有改善或上升或類似的情況。我想知道你是否可以對現在相對於國際的這種外觀給予更多的色彩，我知道這確實推動了聯運的發展。此時是否足以提高多式聯運的報酬率？

I think at this point, we're safe to call that it feels like the bottoming, certainly, and that gives us hope that we've reached that how -- what the inflection will be and look like. That's a watch item for us. There was talk and pull forward, we're not hearing about that as much, but that's TBD. We expected hopefully a more normalized peak season, but that's a watch item for us, but we're optimistic that, that will occur, and we're planning for that as well.

我認為在這一點上，我們可以放心地稱之為觸底，當然，這給了我們希望，我們已經達到了拐點的方式和外觀。這對我們來說是一個手錶項目。有討論和推動，我們沒有聽到那麼多，但那是待定。我們希望有一個更正常化的旺季，但這對我們來說是一個值得關注的項目，但我們樂觀地認為，這種情況將會發生，我們也正在為此做好計劃。

So, we do think the fundamentals don't support a lot of the trucking supply out there, and that's going to rebalance certainly, probably took a lot longer to rebalance given some of the influx of profitability they experienced during the pandemic. And so, they were sitting on a lot more cash to ride this cycle out than maybe previous cycles. Hopefully, I think you'll learn through the earnings calls with the other truckers and others that they're seeing some stability as well. But we're seeing stability, I wouldn't say an inflection at this point.

因此，我們確實認為基本面並不支援大量的卡車運輸供應，而且這肯定會重新平衡，考慮到他們在大流行期間經歷的一些盈利能力的湧入，可能需要更長的時間才能重新平衡。因此，與之前的周期相比，他們擁有更多的現金來度過這個週期。希望您能透過與其他卡車司機和其他人的財報電話會議了解到，他們也看到了一些穩定性。但我們看到了穩定，目前我不會說出現變化。

Stephanie Moore, Jeffreys.

史蒂芬妮·摩爾，杰弗里斯。

Great. Good afternoon. Thank you. I was hoping you could talk a little bit about some of the diverted volumes that you called out ahead of just the labor negotiations and potential strike in the East Coast. Maybe if you could talk about the impact that you did see during the quarter? And then kind of what you're hearing and seeing now in terms of those volumes returning back to normal flows and normal to the East Coast? Thanks.

偉大的。午安.謝謝。我希望你能談談你在勞資談判和東海岸潛在罷工之前呼籲的一些轉移卷。也許您能談談您在本季確實看到的影響嗎？那麼，您現在所聽到和看到的情況是，流量恢復正常，東海岸恢復正常？謝謝。

Yeah. I mean it was a little bit modest. We did see some shipments naturally move over to the West Coast, and then we would have benefited from that moving from the West to the East, but it was relatively modest. We did see some impact, obviously, with the port shutdown on the East Coast. You saw that for a few days and then I've got to tell you that our operating group on the intermodal side was ready to ramp back up immediately. So very little disruption coming out of it. But those were some lost days that we would expect to recover through the rest of the quarter but it did impact us on a near-term basis.

是的。我的意思是這有點謙虛。我們確實看到一些貨物自然地轉移到西海岸，然後我們會從西到東的轉移中受益，但相對溫和。顯然，我們確實看到了東海岸港口關閉帶來的一些影響。您已經看到了幾天，然後我必須告訴您，我們在多式聯運方面的營運團隊已準備好立即恢復。因此，它帶來的干擾很少。但那些損失的日子我們預計會在本季度剩餘時間內恢復，但它確實在短期內影響了我們。

Ken Hoexter, Bank of America.

肯‧霍克斯特，美國銀行。

Hey, great, good afternoon. Maybe you talk a little bit about export coal demand and the stability in the market given the growing importance and volatility, how stable can we look at this level of demand? Because obviously, we talked about the benchmark pricing and what happens on the yield side.

嘿，太好了，下午好。也許您會談談出口煤炭需求和市場的穩定性，考慮到日益增長的重要性和波動性，我們如何看待這個需求水準的穩定性？因為顯然，我們討論了基準定價以及收益率方面發生的情況。

And then Joe, Mike, you mentioned the service levels multiple times. How do we align the service levels with what we get to see, which is the erosion in the on-time originations and arrivals down into the low 70s, upper 60s, maybe you can just walk us through that? Thanks.

然後喬、麥克，你們多次提到了服務水準。我們如何使服務水準與我們所看到的情況保持一致，即起始和到達準點率下降到 70 年代以下，60 年代以上，也許您可以向我們介紹一下這一點？謝謝。

Export coal, my favorite subject. I think when you look at this market over a long period of time, in any cyclical market do you see supply response when the prices are really good and then you obviously see demand response when the macro is not so great globally. What I do think is different going forward is you don't see the supply response like you did in the past. Obviously, the financing and other investments aren't there to bring on new volume into the market.

出口煤炭，我最喜歡的主題。我認為，當你長期觀察這個市場時，在任何週期性市場中，當價格確實很好時，你會看到供應反應，然後當全球宏觀經濟狀況不太好時，你會明顯看到需求反應。我認為未來的不同之處在於，你不會像過去那樣看到供應反應。顯然，融資和其他投資並不能為市場帶來新的銷售。

And I think that's a better backdrop for the market we serve and the mines that we serve today in the global competitive environment. So, I'm hopeful that, that creates more price stability longer term. And the other thing is their cost his risen globally as well. And so, I think the natural price for coal is probably going to stabilize above where it is today, and that gives me hope that we'll see better pricing environment going forward.

我認為這對我們所服務的市場和我們今天在全球競爭環境中所服務的礦場來說是一個更好的背景。因此，我希望這能在長期內創造更多的價格穩定性。另一件事是它們的成本在全球範圍內也上漲了。因此，我認為煤炭的自然價格可能會穩定在今天的水平之上，這讓我希望我們未來會看到更好的定價環境。

Certainly, what you've seen here recently is a China stimulus, and that's been the talk, right? And they are a big consumer of coal in the global market. And that has given some optimism there that, that could recover. So, it's a global -- we compete in the global market. Our customers compete in the global market, but I do think the supply or the lack of supply response going forward is probably a healthier environment for us and makes me optimistic on our met business, in particular, that we'll see that more stable in the future.

當然，你最近在這裡看到的是中國的刺激措施，這就是人們談論的，對吧？他們是全球市場上的煤炭消費大國。這讓人感到樂觀，認為經濟可能會復甦。所以，這是一個全球性的——我們在全球市場上競爭。我們的客戶在全球市場上競爭，但我確實認為未來的供應或缺乏供應響應可能對我們來說是一個更健康的環境，並使我對我們的氣象業務感到樂觀，特別是我們將看到更多穩定的業務未來。

Sorry, it was a two-part question. Look, Ken, to put it as basic as I can, we really focus on the CSD number. So, if you want a number, that's the one -- that's our first and last mile. That's the one we say customer basically lets us know what they need and we bring it. So how we get the cars there on the trains, regardless of the weather conditions, we have a big automotive network that we don't necessarily -- we run a scheduled plan, but it changes quite a bit between loading.

抱歉，這是一個由兩個部分組成的問題。聽著，肯，盡可能簡單地說，我們真正關注的是 CSD 數字。所以，如果你想要一個數字，那就是——這是我們的第一英里和最後一英里。這就是我們所說的客戶基本上讓我們知道他們需要什麼，然後我們帶來它。因此，無論天氣條件如何，我們如何將汽車運送到火車上，我們擁有一個不一定的大型汽車網絡——我們運行一個預定計劃，但在裝載之間它會發生很大的變化。

So, we don't change the train schedules other than to modify to where they're going to. So, the on-time performance isn't as important as the car cycle and that's how we look at it. So yes, you're right. We want to be like -- 7 out of 10 trains are running on time, what we're watching for is to make sure the cars that are on those trains are getting to where they need to fulfil the customers' needs. You can take dwell, you can take car velocity, all those things, you're trying to balance it, first of all, the service product you promise to deliver, and that's really back to the CSD number. That's the one we look for that. And then how we get it there, we're trying to do it the cheapest and most efficient way.

因此，我們不會改變火車時刻表，只是修改它們的目的地。因此，準時性能並不像汽車週期那麼重要，這就是我們看待它的方式。所以是的，你是對的。我們希望—十分之七的火車準時運行，我們所關注的是確保這些火車上的車廂能夠到達他們需要的地方，以滿足客戶的需求。你可以考慮一下，你可以考慮汽車速度，所有這些事情，你都在努力平衡它，首先，你承諾提供的服務產品，這實際上又回到了 CSD 數字。這就是我們要尋找的人。然後我們如何實現這一目標，我們正在努力以最便宜、最有效的方式做到這一點。

So, I'm not saying it's not important, but we have been very those last not just those weather here, but this last six months since I've been here, we have been really trying to find a way to fund the efficiency and the service. And the numbers right now, I'm not going to say they're blurred. They're all important, but we're balancing each one. And yes, disruptions hurt our on-time performance and that has been reflected this last quarter. Like I said, if you go back to July, you can start to see where we're going. So, it is a focus, but it's one of a few that we balance to get those end results.

所以，我並不是說這不重要，但我們一直非常努力，不僅僅是這裡的天氣，而且自從我來到這裡以來的最後六個月，我們一直在努力尋找一種方法來為效率和效率提供資金。現在的數字，我不會說它們是模糊的。它們都很重要，但我們正在平衡每一項。是的，中斷影響了我們的準時表現，這在上個季度得到了體現。就像我說的，如果你回到七月，你就可以開始了解我們的發展方向。所以，這是一個重點，但它是我們為了獲得這些最終結果而平衡的少數重點之一。

Ben Nolan, Stifel.

本諾蘭，史蒂菲爾。

Yeah. Thanks for taking the question. Yes. I wanted to ask a little bit just on pricing. It seems like the one area or one of the areas where we actually have been able to get a little bit better pricing is on the chemical side. Is that -- chemical specifically, is that just a function of a healthy market where there is some pricing ability? Is it maybe starting to see some impact from quality or just maybe talk through how the chemical part of the business is evolving?

是的。感謝您提出問題。是的。我想問一點關於定價的問題。看起來我們實際上能夠獲得更好定價的一個領域或其中一個領域是在化學品方面。是不是——特別是化學品，這只是一個有一定定價能力的健康市場的功能嗎？是否可能開始看到品質的一些影響，或者只是討論業務的化學部分如何發展？

Yeah. I think there's a lot of factors that obviously play in the RPU length of haul, all those things. I don't see the chemical market really that different from some of our other merchandise markets where we've been successful. So, I know optically maybe on an RPU basis, that appears to be the case. But I think when you look at across that merchandise portfolio, there's really not a big deviation between the markets as our service continues to get better, as I mentioned before, as we deliver, as we can cycle their cars faster and save them capital, all those things factor in and deliver value to the customer in other ways where we can monetize that through price.

是的。我認為有很多因素顯然會影響 RPU 的運輸長度，所有這些因素。我認為化學品市場與我們已經取得成功的其他一些商品市場並沒有太大不同。所以，我從視覺上知道，也許在 RPU 的基礎上，情況似乎是這樣。但我認為，當你縱觀整個商品組合時，市場之間確實沒有太大的偏差，因為我們的服務不斷變得更好，正如我之前提到的，當我們交付時，因為我們可以更快地循環他們的汽車並節省他們的資本，所有這些因素都會以其他方式考慮並為客戶提供價值，我們可以透過價格將其貨幣化。

Jason Seidl, TD Cowan.

賈森·塞德爾，TD·考恩。

Thank you gentlemen. Good afternoon. I appreciate you squeezing me in here. I wanted to talk a little bit about intermodal yields. I mean there was a lot of movement of freight from the East Coast to the West Coast in anticipation of the port strike. Do you see that switching back? And if so, what sort of impact should we expect on the yields? And then I guess I'd throw a quick one here, too. How are you feeling going to that January 15 date the ILA, do you think it could be Strike fears 2.0?

謝謝先生們。午安.我很感激你把我擠在這裡。我想談談多式聯運的收益。我的意思是，由於預計港口罷工，有大量貨物從東海岸運往西海岸。你看到切換回來了嗎？如果是這樣，我們預期會對收益率產生什麼樣的影響？然後我想我也會在這裡快速扔一個。您對 1 月 15 日的 ILA 日期感覺如何，您認為這可能是罷工恐懼 2.0 嗎？

I don't have any inside look at how that's going, but it certainly will be a watch item for us. I'm hopeful that obviously, the agreement will become well before that and create some -- and eliminate some of the uncertainty that, that could create again for us.

我對事情的進展沒有任何內部了解，但它肯定會成為我們的觀察對象。我希望，顯然，該協議將早在這之前達成，並創造一些不確定性，並消除可能再次為我們帶來的一些不確定性。

When I think about freight and the movement of freight, it naturally wants to move to a certain port and efficiently. And so you've seen the East Coast outperform the West Coast over time. Some of that's because of the manufacturing shift you're seeing, some of that away from China and other parts of the world and more naturally wants the land on the East Coast.

當我想到貨運和貨運的移動時，它自然希望有效率地移動到某個港口。因此，隨著時間的推移，您會看到東海岸的表現優於西海岸。其中一些是因為你所看到的製造業轉移，其中一些遠離中國和世界其他地區，更自然地想要東海岸的土地。

I think that continues from everything as you see us trying to decouple from China and those factors, and that's a great thing for us. If you look at the investments that are being made on the East Coast versus the West Coast, I think those are supportive of outgrowth, and we'll participate in that as well. But in many ways, we're somewhat agnostic if again, if freight wants to move in the west and move to the East Coast, that's not a bad thing for us. That would traditionally would truck and so that's an opportunity for us.

我認為，當你看到我們試圖與中國和這些因素脫鉤時，一切都會繼續這種情況，這對我們來說是一件好事。如果你看看東海岸和西海岸正在進行的投資，我認為這些投資支持了經濟成長，我們也將參與其中。但在很多方面，我們還是有點不可知論，如果貨運想要從西部轉移到東海岸，這對我們來說並不是一件壞事。傳統上，這將是卡車運輸，所以這對我們來說是一個機會。

I do think over time, as we continue to see the East Coast volumes continue to increase, I think we can push more into Chicago and other areas. That's an opportunity, and we'll see that further play out here over time. And then the underline port strategy that we have is going to create a lot of value, and it's going to open up opportunities for our customers look differently at shifting even more freight over to the East Coast because we can efficiently move it in inland with our East Coast ports in a very, very efficient way.

我確實認為，隨著時間的推移，隨著我們繼續看到東海岸的銷量繼續增加，我認為我們可以將更多的產品推向芝加哥和其他地區。這是一個機會，隨著時間的推移，我們將看到這個機會進一步發揮作用。然後，我們擁有的重點港口策略將創造大量價值，這將為我們的客戶提供機會，他們以不同的方式將更多的貨物轉移到東海岸，因為我們可以透過我們的服務有效地將其轉移到內陸。

So, I don't think we'll get through this noise on the -- obviously, the labor negotiations. But overall, I think the trend continues and we're going to benefit from that as a railroad.

所以，我認為我們不會在勞資談判中度過這一喧囂。但總的來說，我認為這種趨勢仍在繼續，我們作為鐵路公司將從中受益。

Walter Spracklin, RBC Capital.

沃爾特‧斯普拉克林 (Walter Spracklin)，加拿大皇家銀行資本 (RBC Capital)。

Yeah, thanks very much and good afternoon everyone. Just curious on the competitive marketplace. I know there was a lot of discussion on truck, but I know your main competitor on the rail side is affecting quite some meaningful changes that is leading to impacts on their service. I'm wondering if you're seeing that come up in the marketplace at all? Are you seeing any -- is there any larger contracts that are coming up that you see as either an opportunity or a risk here? Just to get a better handle on how much of an improvement in your competitors operations is affecting or impacting you in terms of winning or losing business in the marketplace.

是的，非常感謝，大家下午好。只是對競爭激烈的市場感到好奇。我知道有很多關於卡車的討論，但我知道鐵路的主要競爭對手正在影響一些有意義的變化，這些變化會對他們的服務產生影響。我想知道您是否在市場上看到過這種情況？您是否看到任何即將到來的更大合同，您認為這是機會還是風險？只是為了更好地了解競爭對手運營的改進對您在市場上贏得或失去業務的影響有多大。

Yes. I think -- look, as I mentioned before, we compete every day. We compete knowing that we have very, very good service that continues to improve. And I think the customers have seen that stability in the leadership team that we have though, the consistency of our message and what we're trying to achieve and they understand our objectives, which is to grow with them. I think that's very helpful when you get into those discussions that they understand where we're going and that there's still going to be stability among the leadership team and the team that we've built. So, we continue to have a very, very effective cost base.

是的。我想——看，正如我之前提到的，我們每天都在競爭。我們競爭時知道我們擁有非常非常好的服務並且不斷改進。我認為客戶已經看到了我們領導團隊的穩定性、我們訊息的一致性以及我們正在努力實現的目標，並且他們理解我們的目標，即與他們一起成長。我認為，當你參與這些討論時，他們了解我們的發展方向，並且領導團隊和我們建立的團隊之間仍然保持穩定，這非常有幫助。因此，我們仍然擁有非常非常有效的成本基礎。

We can compete when we need to compete both on service and cost. And I think in those cases, we're going to be very, very competitive, and we're going to be winners in that situation. So, we're focused, obviously, on other opportunities, too. We want to grow the pie. We want to grow the market. We want to move the freight that's not moving on rail as well. And I think having those discussions along with retaining our own business is really helpful in retaining that business. So that's where we're focused on right now is growing the pie. And I think we're going to have a lot of success -- we've had a lot of success this year, and we're going to continue to have that success as we move into next year and the years beyond that.

當我們需要在服務和成本上競爭時，我們就可以競爭。我認為在這些情況下，我們將非常非常有競爭力，並且在這種情況下我們將成為贏家。因此，顯然我們也關注其他機會。我們想要把蛋糕做大。我們希望擴大市場。我們也希望運輸不在鐵路上運輸的貨物。我認為在保留我們自己的業務的同時進行這些討論對於保留該業務確實很有幫助。因此，我們現在關注的重點就是做大蛋糕。我認為我們將會取得很大的成功——今年我們已經取得了巨大的成功，當我們進入明年和以後的幾年時，我們將繼續取得成功。

David Vernon, Sanford Bernstein.

大衛‧弗農，桑福德‧伯恩斯坦。

Hey, good afternoon guys. So, Joe, it sounds like you invested a lot in the culture part of the equation. I'm wondering if you can share some perspective on how some of the churn rates or turnover rates, however you guys measure them internally, internal Net Promoter Scores, that kind of stuff, has changed as a result of those investments?

嘿，大家下午好。所以，喬，聽起來你在等式的文化部分投入了很多。我想知道您是否可以分享一些關於一些流失率或流動率（無論您如何在內部衡量它們，內部淨推薦值等）如何因這些投資而改變的觀點？

Yeah. Thanks, David. I mean First of all, we look at many metrics, but as we've talked about many times, culture is kind of hard to measure. I've likened it to love, which is you kind of know it when you feel it, but you can't really measure it. That being said, we see it in many ways. For example, we do Net Promoter Scores with our employees. And both on our management side and our union side, those numbers have moved meaningfully in the last two years. They're not where we want them to be on the union side. And we still have work to do there, but they've come up significantly from where they were just two years ago.

是的。謝謝，大衛。我的意思是，首先，我們會考慮許多指標，但正如我們多次討論的那樣，文化很難衡量。我把它比喻為愛，當你感受到它時你就知道它，但你無法真正衡量它。話雖這麼說，我們從很多方面都看到了這一點。例如，我們與員工一起進行淨推薦值。在我們的管理階層和工會方面，這些數字在過去兩年中都發生了有意義的變化。他們不是我們希望他們站在工會這邊的地方。我們仍然有工作要做，但與兩年前相比已經有了顯著的進步。

Mike mentioned what we're looking at in the form of attrition, both in our new hires, but also mid to longer term hires. Attrition rate on new hires is really important to us because we invest six plus months of training in them as a conductor. And if we lose them, after all that, we have to start again, especially in some key sites so that's really important. But it's more than that. I mean, if you look at the efficiency gains we're getting on, quarter-over-quarter over quarter this year, and importantly, Kevin mentioned it, the best Net Promoter scores we've ever had since we've been measuring on our customer side, those are all impacted by attitudes and the work that our employees do.

麥克提到了我們正在關注的人員流動問題，無論是新員工還是中長期員工。新員工的流失率對我們來說非常重要，因為我們對他們進行了六個月以上的指揮訓練。如果我們失去了他們，那麼我們就必須重新開始，特別是在一些關鍵地點，所以這非常重要。但還不止於此。我的意思是，如果你看看我們今年逐季度取得的效率提升，重要的是，凱文提到了這一點，這是我們自衡量以來的最佳淨推薦值我們的客戶方面，這些都受到我們員工的態度和工作的影響。

And if they feel part of the team and feel listen to and valued and appreciated, they're going to give us a better outcome for our customers and better efficiency in a safer environment for everybody. So, it's hard to measure with one thing, but I can tell you that we feel very strongly that we're seeing the efforts that we put in and the results that come from that. We've had roughly 20 family days, there were 30,000 people attending, it's the kind of environment where people want to be a part of. People are telling us over and over again, they're proud to wear CSX gear in their communities again.

如果他們覺得自己是團隊的一部分，感受到傾聽、重視和讚賞，他們將為我們的客戶帶來更好的結果，並在為每個人提供更安全的環境中提高效率。因此，很難用一件事來衡量，但我可以告訴你，我們強烈地感受到我們正在看到我們所付出的努力和由此產生的結果。我們舉辦了大約 20 個家庭日，有 30,000 人參加，這是人們想要參與的環境。人們一遍又一遍地告訴我們，他們很自豪能夠再次在自己的社區穿著 CSX 裝備。

All those things are important for retention and attracting talent, but they're also important for how people work together. I've said many times, this is a service business and service business must really work hard on their cultures and their employee engagement because the employees are the ones who provide the service. And if you would have seen all the notes we've received this year, from our employees thanking us for reaching out to every employee in the regions impacted by the hurricanes, making sure they need anything, whether it's a generator or it's water or anything.

所有這些對於留住和吸引人才都很重要，而且對於人們如何合作也很重要。我已經說過很多次了，這是一個服務業，服務業必須在他們的文化和員工敬業度上真正努力，因為員工是提供服務的人。如果您看過我們今年收到的所有員工的留言，感謝我們聯繫受颶風影響地區的每位員工，確保他們需要任何東西，無論是發電機、水或其他東西。

And the notes I'm receiving and our team is receiving and they know they're not a number. Those things are important in our business. They're important for attrition -- sorry, they're important for retention, but they're also important for the energy that we have that feeds into ultimately our customers. So, we believe it's working and you can see it in the numbers. And Sean mentioned we have seven quarters in a row now where we've grown merchandise intermodal revenue by 3% or more at seven quarters in a row in an environment that's been complicated and you also see it in the resiliency of our network and how quickly we respond to issues and how quickly we can get back up and running.

我和我們的團隊收到的筆記，他們知道它們不是數字。這些事情對我們的業務很重要。它們對於流失很重要——抱歉，它們對於保留很重要，但它們對於我們最終為客戶提供的能量也很重要。因此，我們相信它正在發揮作用，並且您可以從數字中看到它。Sean 提到，我們現在已連續七個季度實現商品多式聯運收入連續七個季度增長 3% 或更多，在一個複雜的環境中，您也可以從我們網絡的彈性和速度中看到這一點我們對問題做出反應以及我們能夠多快恢復正常運作。

I mean -- the last thing and you've heard a lot about weather and hurricanes today, and you probably -- you don't want to hear any more about it, but the people that have been around here a long time, 30-plus years, are telling me that the impact of Helene on our network is the second most impactful hurricane they've seen at CSX, Katrina being the worst. I tell you the scale of things we're dealing with. And yet we're talking about an impact of $50 million in the quarter. As Sean noted, Obviously, we have some significant capital cost to rebuild the network, but that's people working together with a spirit and a motivation.

我的意思是 - 最後一件事，你今天聽到了很多關於天氣和颶風的信息，你可能 - 你不想再聽到更多有關它的信息，但是已經在這裡呆了很長時間的人，30 - 多年來，他們告訴我，海倫對我們網路的影響是他們在CSX 見過的第二大颶風，卡崔娜颶風是最嚴重的。我告訴你我們正在處理的事情的規模。然而我們談論的是本季 5000 萬美元的影響。正如肖恩指出的那樣，顯然，我們需要大量的資本成本來重建網絡，但這是人們帶著精神和動力共同努力的結果。

It doesn't come if people don't feel like they're part of ONE CSX team. So, also been getting national agreements done before they expire. That's never happened in the railroad industry. Those are examples of things that are happening because of our culture and because of how we're working together. Ultimately, that plays out in the customer service we deliver in the safety, we actually deliver. And Mike mentioned it, our severity rate is down dramatically in injuries over the last several months. That's really important. The injury rate hasn't really moved, but severity rates moved dramatically. That's the kind of thing you get when people are working together and their culture builds from there.

如果人們不覺得自己是 ONE CSX 團隊的一員，那麼這個目標就不會到來。因此，我們也在國家協議到期前完成這些協議。這在鐵路業從未發生過。這些都是因我們的文化和我們的合作方式而發生的事情的例子。最終，這體現在我們實際提供的安全客戶服務中。麥克提到，在過去的幾個月裡，我們受傷的嚴重率急劇下降。這真的很重要。受傷率並沒有真正變化，但嚴重程度卻發生了巨大變化。當人們一起工作並且他們的文化由此建立時，你就會得到這種東西。

Thank you. This concludes our time that we have for Q&A. And with no further questions, this concludes today's conference call. We thank you for your attendance. You may now disconnect.

謝謝。我們的問答時間到此結束。沒有其他問題，今天的電話會議就結束了。我們感謝您的出席。您現在可以斷開連線。