CSX Corp (CSX) 2024 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. My name is Abby and I'll be your conference operator today.

女士們先生們，謝謝你們的支持。我叫艾比，今天我將擔任你們的會議接線生。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

Thank you. And I would now like to turn the conference over to Matthew Corn, Head of Investor relations and strategy. You may begin.

謝謝。現在我想將會議交給投資者關係和策略主管 Matthew Corn。你可以開始了。

Thank you Abby, Hello, everyone, and good afternoon. Welcome to our fourth quarter earnings call. Joining me on the call today are Joe Hinrichs, President and Chief Executive Officer; Mike Cory, Executive Vice President and Chief Operating Officer; Kevin Boone, Executive Vice President and Chief Commercial Officer; and Sean Pelkey, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer.

謝謝艾比，大家好，下午好。歡迎參加我們的第四季財報電話會議。今天與我一起參加電話會議的還有總裁兼執行長 Joe Hinrichs； Mike Cory，執行副總裁兼營運長；凱文‧布恩，執行副總裁兼首席商務官；執行副總裁兼財務長肖恩‧佩爾基 (Sean Pelkey)。

In the presentation accompanying this call, which is available on our website, you will find slides with our forward-looking disclosures and our non-GAAP disclosures for your review.

在我們網站上提供的本次電話會議隨附的簡報中，您將找到包含我們的前瞻性揭露和非公認會計原則揭露的投影片供您審閱。

With that, it is now my pleasure to introduce Mr. Joe Hinrichs.

現在我很高興向大家介紹 Joe Hinrichs 先生。

All right. Thank you, Matthew, and hello, everyone. Thank you for joining our fourth quarter call. As we look back and review 2024, we see that our railroad faced a significant number of challenges during the year, including weaker commodity prices, a bridge collapse and multiple hurricanes. We had another year where U.S.

好的。謝謝你，馬修，大家好。感謝您參加我們的第四季電話會議。當我們回顧和回顧 2024 年時，我們看到我們的鐵路在這一年中面臨大量挑戰，包括大宗商品價格疲軟、橋樑垮塌和多次颶風。我們又度過了一年

industrial production was effectively flat, reflecting mixed end markets across our customer base. There are also some labor disruptions across North American supply chain, which added economic uncertainty. But it's so impressive that through all of this, our ONE CSX team continued working together to improve our overall business. We have been resilient adapting to changing markets and operating conditions while remaining focused on our commitment to customer service.

工業生產實際上持平，反映出我們客戶群的終端市場參差不齊。整個北美供應鏈也出現了一些勞動力中斷，這增加了經濟的不確定性。但令人印象深刻的是，透過這一切，我們的 ONE CSX 團隊繼續共同努力改善我們的整體業務。我們一直在適應不斷變化的市場和營運條件，同時繼續專注於我們對客戶服務的承諾。

Last year, it was different than we planned, but we are proud of what we achieved and how we achieved it. We are confident because we know that our momentum continues to build, and we are ready for the important year ahead of us in 2025.

去年，這與我們的計劃不同，但我們為我們所取得的成就以及實現這一目標的方式感到自豪。我們充滿信心，因為我們知道我們的勢頭將繼續增強，我們已為 2025 年重要的一年做好準備。

Now as shown on the first slide, we achieved a lot over 2024. CSX achieved 2% volume growth for the year, outpacing the industrial economy yet again, we accomplished this even with a number of constraints on our coal franchise, including the collapse of Francis Scott Key Bridge in Baltimore. Our leading merchandise business delivered 3% revenue growth even after absorbing the effects of much lower fuel surcharge, soft metals markets and the hurricane disruptions.

正如第一張投影片所示，我們在 2024 年取得了許多成就。CSX 今年的銷量成長了 2%，再次超過了工業經濟，儘管我們的煤炭特許經營權受到許多限制（包括巴爾的摩弗朗西斯·斯科特基大橋倒塌），但我們仍然實現了這一目標。即使在吸收了大幅降低的燃油附加費、軟金屬市場和颶風幹擾的影響後，我們領先的商品業務仍實現了 3% 的收入成長。

We delivered strong, consistent customer service and our customers have responded.

我們提供了強大、一致的客戶服務，我們的客戶也做出了回應。

You heard this for yourselves at our recent Investor Day, and you can see it in our financial results as we are able to price according to the value we are delivering. Operationally, we worked across our network to reduce waste, unlock capacity and improve responsiveness.

您在最近的投資者日上親耳聽到了這一點，您也可以在我們的財務表現中看到這一點，因為我們能夠根據我們提供的價值進行定價。在營運方面，我們在整個網路中努力減少浪費、釋放容量並提高回應能力。

We took more steps in building a successful culture that can deliver more sustainable, efficient performance and drive more positive momentum for the business. We also led the rail industry in reaching early agreements with our labor unions on our 5-year contracts, working together to value our employees, avoid the prolonged labor battles of the past and provide certainty for our customers.

我們採取了更多措施來建立成功的文化，這種文化可以提供更永續、更有效率的績效，並為業務帶來更積極的動力。我們也引領鐵路業與工會就五年合約達成早期協議，共同努力重視我們的員工，避免過去漫長的勞資鬥爭，並為我們的客戶提供確定性。

Now we can review some of the results of the fourth quarter. Slide 2 highlights key metrics for our fourth quarter compared to last year, as we expected, our underlying operations performed well, but we did see the impact of substantially lower coal and diesel prices.

現在我們可以回顧一下第四季的一些結果。幻燈片 2 強調了我們第四季度與去年相比的關鍵指標，正如我們預期的那樣，我們的基礎業務表現良好，但我們確實看到了煤炭和柴油價格大幅下降的影響。

Hurricane effects also laid on revenues and expenses for the quarter, as we noted in our October call. Total volume grew by 1% versus last year in the quarter. The largest contributor was growth in intermodal volume, which gained 4%. Quarterly revenue declined by 4% and largely due to lower global coal prices and a decline in fuel surcharge.

正如我們在 10 月的電話會議中指出的那樣，颶風的影響也影響了該季度的收入和支出。本季總銷量比去年同期成長 1%。最大的貢獻是多式聯運量的成長，成長了 4%。季度收入下降 4%，主要是由於全球煤炭價格下降和燃油附加費下降。

Earnings per share declined 7% on an adjusted basis, excluding the effects of the goodwill impairment this quarter. Overall, we executed well through a difficult period. However, we are not satisfied with these results. We have a clear vision of what we want to achieve at CSX, as we shared with you at our recent Investor Day, and we are committed to delivering on that vision for the benefit of our customers, our employees and our shareholders.

扣除本季商譽減損的影響，調整後每股盈餘下降 7%。總體而言，我們在困難時期表現良好。然而，我們對這些結果並不滿意。正如我們在最近的投資者日與您分享的那樣，我們對 CSX 想要實現的目標有著清晰的願景，並且我們致力於實現這一願景，以造福我們的客戶、員工和股東。

Now I'll turn the call over to Mike to discuss our operational performance.

現在我將把電話轉給麥克，討論我們的營運績效。

Thank you, Joe, and I really appreciate you all taking the time today to participate. So first, I want to thank our team for the tremendous efforts through the quarter and the year, and I'm really truly proud of this team from weather to structural challenges like the Blue Ridge or Howard Street Tunnel. They work together to minimize the impact on our customers. And they did all of this while controlling costs and building a safe work environment for our employees and the communities they operate in. Let's go to the first slide.

謝謝你，喬，我真的很感謝你們今天抽出時間來參加。首先，我要感謝我們的團隊在本季度和這一年中所做的巨大努力，從天氣到藍嶺或霍華德街隧道等結構性挑戰，我真的為這個團隊感到自豪。他們共同努力，盡量減少對客戶的影響。他們在做到這一切的同時控製成本並為我們的員工及其所在社區建立一個安全的工作環境。讓我們來看第一張投影片。

The fourth quarter saw a sequential decline in FRA injuries, which reflects our continuing initiatives around transforming our safety culture. However, the full year rate remained elevated compared to last year. A positive result of our efforts has been a significant reduction in our employees' lost time associated with injuries. We finished 2024 with the lowest total workdays loss in the calendar year in company history. For FRA accidents, we saw a quarterly year-over-year increase but finished largely flat on an annual basis.

第四季度，法蘭克福機場受傷人數連續下降，這反映了我們圍繞安全文化轉型的持續措施。然而，與去年相比，全年成長率仍然較高。我們努力的一個積極成果是員工因受傷而損失的時間顯著減少。2024 年，我們的總工作日損失是公司歷史上最低的。對於法蘭克福機場事故，我們看到季度同比增加，但與年度相比基本持平。

We strongly believe that our work in the field on hazard identification and exposure control combined with our focus on newly hired and trained employees will continue to reduce significant injuries and accidents. And to improve efficiency in our capital work, we continue to harden our main lines and infrastructure more effectively.

我們堅信，我們在危險識別和暴露控制領域的工作，加上我們對新僱用和培訓員工的關注，將繼續減少重大傷害和事故。為了提高資本工作效率，我們持續更有效地強化主線和基礎設施。

Clearly see how our safe CSX initiative is creating positive fundamental changes in both our safety leadership and the workplace environment our employees are in. Over to the next slide. On this slide, you can see the impact of the strong hurricanes that pass through much of our service areas at the beginning of the quarter and flowed through to our customer service metrics.

清楚地看到我們的安全 CSX 計劃如何為我們的安全領導力和員工所處的工作場所環境帶來積極的根本性變化。轉到下一張投影片。在這張投影片上，您可以看到本季初穿過我們大部分服務區域並影響到我們的客戶服務指標的強烈颶風的影響。

Much of the impact to our trip plan compliance indirectly from our inability to deliver cars to customers due to the effects of the storm. Our customer switch data shows that we maintain relatively good first and last mile switching considering the challenges.

由於風暴的影響，我們無法向客戶交付汽車，這對我們的旅行計劃合規性產生了間接影響。我們的客戶轉換數據顯示，考慮到這些挑戰，我們保持了相對良好的第一英里和最後一英里轉換。

However, it remains our focus for improvement.

然而，它仍然是我們改進的重點。

I'm confident that our team will deliver in these metrics as we progress through the year. I'm also very pleased with the progress that we've made in developing our field employees to be more responsive to customer needs. As this development takes hold, we have a much better understanding at the local level on how to manage costs through proper service process. Over to the next slide. As I stated earlier, 2024 brought various weather-related challenges over the last 2 quarters that have affected our overall operating metrics.

我相信，隨著我們今年的進展，我們的團隊將實現這些指標。我也對我們在培養現場員工以更好地回應客戶需求方面取得的進展感到非常高興。隨著這項發展的落實，我們在地方層級對如何透過適當的服務流程管理成本有了更好的了解。轉到下一張投影片。正如我之前所說，2024 年過去兩個季度帶來了各種與天氣相關的挑戰，影響了我們的整體營運指標。

We entered Q4 still dealing with the residual effects of the previous storm such as the Blue Ridge reroutes. Hurricane Milton, in particular, caused long periods of recovery for the various commodities to move into and out of Florida. This resulted in increased well for our traffic in our largest volume state. It also affected other parts of the network as we were unable to run our regular cadence on some flows throughout the storms up to recovery.

進入第四季度，我們仍在處理先前風暴的殘餘影響，例如藍嶺重新路線。尤其是米爾頓颶風，導致進出佛羅裡達州的各種商品經歷了長時間的恢復。這導致我們在最大流量狀態下的流量大幅增加。它還影響了網路的其他部分，因為我們無法在整個風暴期間的某些流量上運行常規節奏直至恢復。

On the velocity side, we were able to maintain -- excuse me, we were able to continue increasing our capacity and maintain our speed through very close management of our train starts. This also benefited our locomotive utilization and overall transportation, engineering and mechanical costs. As we worked hard in adverse conditions to maintain our network fluidity, we also drove strong improvements in efficiency.

在速度方面，我們能夠保持——對不起，我們能夠透過對列車發車的非常密切的管理來繼續增加我們的容量並保持我們的速度。這也有利於我們的機車利用率以及整體運輸、工程和機械成本。我們在不利條件下努力保持網路流動性的同時，也推動了效率的大幅提升。

The top right of the slide shows the gains we've made in fuel efficiency, which has resulted in millions of dollars in savings in this last year. The chart on the bottom reflects how we're using less power per tonne of freight moved, another indicator of better operating efficiency.

幻燈片的右上角顯示了我們在燃油效率方面的進步，去年節省了數百萬美元。底部的圖表反映了我們如何減少每噸貨物運輸的電力，這是營運效率提高的另一個指標。

Further, over 2024, our engineering, transportation and network teams work together to improve our work block performance. This resulted in substantial improvements in the amount of rail, ties and [ballast] or placed per man hour compared to the previous year. And we're seeing great productivity gains here, but there's still much more improvement that we expect to get going forward.

此外，到 2024 年，我們的工程、運輸和網路團隊將共同努力提高我們的工作區塊績效。與前一年相比，這使得每工時的鐵軌、枕木和[道碴]數量大幅增加。我們在這裡看到了生產力的巨大提高，但我們預計未來還會有更多的改進。

For the Howard Street tunnel, we've commenced rerouting traffic and our start date at February 1 is on target. This project was initially planned to take three years to create extensive daily track outages over 1 of our key corridors. We're extremely proud of the team for being able to turn this around from a three-year project to one that will take 6 to 8 months for the tunnel to be operational. Benefit from this improvement forever and far faster than originally planned. At the Investor Day, I spoke about the opportunities at Cumberland.

對於霍華德街隧道，我們已開始重新規劃交通路線，2 月 1 日的開始日期已如期實現。該項目最初計劃用三年時間在我們的一個主要走廊上造成廣泛的每日軌道停駛。我們為團隊感到非常自豪，因為他們能夠將這個為期三年的計畫轉變為需要 6 到 8 個月才能使隧道投入運作的計畫。永遠受益於這種改進，並且比最初計劃的速度要快得多。在投資者日，我談到了坎伯蘭的機會。

The team is 90% complete with the sites for configuration and the results have been great. Already, we've doubled the number of cars processed per day, meeting our initial target. And with completion still to come, we are focusing on much more in terms of improvements.

團隊已完成 90% 的網站配置，結果非常好。我們已經將每天處理的汽車數量增加了一倍，達到了我們的初始目標。由於尚未完成，我們將重點放在改進方面。

Overall, I'm extremely pleased with our progress on many of the fronts. All our initiatives discussed at the Investor Day are proceeding. And while 2024 had numerous challenges, we made fundamental improvements in many areas that will benefit us over the long run. We've increased transparency in the relationship between cost and service for our operating managers. As a result, our service continues to improve while our costs stay in line with expectations.

總的來說，我對我們在許多方面取得的進展感到非常滿意。我們在投資者日討論的所有舉措都在進行中。儘管 2024 年面臨許多挑戰，但我們在許多領域取得了根本性改進，從長遠來看將使我們受益。我們為營運經理提高了成本與服務之間關係的透明度。因此，我們的服務不斷改進，同時我們的成本仍符合預期。

Our SAFE CSX program is well underway, and the team is defining and implementing key process changes with our operating employees. Bringing benefits to employee retention as well as improving reliability and resiliency across our network. Considering various challenges as it came about last year, I'm very pleased and confident in the operating teams respond and their collective work in both restoration and tackling our initiatives going forward.

我們的 SAFE CSX 計畫正在順利進行，團隊正在與我們的營運員工一起定義和實施關鍵流程變更。為保留員工帶來好處，並提高整個網路的可靠性和彈性。考慮到去年出現的各種挑戰，我對營運團隊的回應以及他們在恢復和解決我們未來舉措方面的集體工作感到非常高興和充滿信心。

So looking forward, I believe we're well positioned to deliver our objectives in 2025 and beyond. And we're all looking forward to capitalizing on the opportunities as they present themselves.

因此，展望未來，我相信我們有能力實現 2025 年及以後的目標。我們都期待著利用這些機會。

With that, over to you, Kevin.

好了，就交給你了，凱文。

All right. Thank you, Mike. First of all, I do want to thank this entire sales organization for all their hard work throughout 2024. As Joe and Mike have described, we faced numerous challenges across our network this past year, and our team responded with a steady commitment to serving our customers, highlighted by our fourth quarter Voice of the Customer survey. Where we saw the Net Promoter Score reaching an all-time high.

好的。謝謝你，麥克。首先，我要感謝整個銷售團隊在 2024 年所做的辛勤工作。正如喬和麥克所描述的，去年我們的網絡面臨著眾多挑戰，我們的團隊做出了回應，堅定地致力於為客戶提供服務，這一點在我們的第四季度客戶之聲調查中得到了強調。我們看到淨推薦值達到了歷史新高。

We continue to see mixed conditions across the markets we serve. Industrial output remains muted. Interest rates are still high, and the truck cycle has yet to inflect. With that said, we hear optimism from our customers as they consider the potential for support of domestic economic policies, and we continue to see strong activity into 2025 with new project inquiries into our industrial development group.

我們繼續看到我們所服務的市場的情況好壞參半。工業產出依然低迷。利率仍然很高，卡車週期尚未改變。儘管如此，我們聽到了客戶的樂觀情緒，因為他們考慮了國內經濟政策支持的潛力，並且我們繼續看到 2025 年的強勁活動，我們的工業發展集團收到了新的項目詢價。

Our focus remains to drive outgrowth in the markets we serve, continuing our track record of exceeding industrial production. Let's review merchandise business, as shown on Slide 8. For the fourth quarter, revenue and volume were flat compared to last year. But on a full year basis, revenue was 3% higher, with a 1% increase in volume. Looking across the end markets, chemicals remained strong in the fourth quarter, consistent with the full year performance.

我們的重點仍然是推動我們所服務的市場的成長，繼續我們超越工業生產的記錄。讓我們回顧一下商品業務，如幻燈片 8 所示。第四季的營收和銷售量與去年同期持平。但從全年來看，營收成長了 3%，銷量成長了 1%。縱觀終端市場，化學品第四季依然強勁，與全年表現一致。

with volume increasing 6%. Robust demand for plastics and LPGs has driven much of the growth throughout 2024. Minerals volume was supported by positive demand for cement and aggregates and Forest products volume was up 3% as CSX capitalized on continued demand in paper markets and pulp board. On the other side of the markets, volume for fertilizers business was impacted this quarter at supply chains here in Florida the lingering effects of hurricanes. Performance within metals remain sluggish as it has been all year, largely due to continued soft demand for steel.

成交量增加6%。對塑膠和液化石油氣的強勁需求推動了 2024 年全年的成長。水泥和骨材的積極需求支撐了礦產銷量，而由於 CSX 利用紙張市場和紙漿板的持續需求，林產品銷量增長了 3%。另一方面，由於颶風的持續影響，本季度佛羅裡達州供應鏈的化肥業務量受到影響。與全年一樣，金屬業的表現仍然低迷，這主要是由於鋼鐵需求持續疲軟。

Volume for our automotive business declined 2% for the quarter, higher dealer inventories have led to lower build rates. Looking ahead to 2025, we're seeing strong demand signals in our ag and fertilizer segments. Along with continued strength in Minerals & Chemicals.

本季我們的汽車業務銷售下降了 2%，經銷商庫存增加導致建造率降低。展望 2025 年，我們看到農業和化肥領域出現強勁的需求訊號。隨著礦物和化學品業務的持續發展。

Interest rate sensitive markets, including automotive, metals and housing continue to remain challenged. While we anticipate a slower start in the first quarter, we do expect moderate merchandise carload growth for the full year, supported by steady service-driven conversions and new industrial development projects that should accelerate as we exit 2025.

汽車、金屬和住房等利率敏感市場持續面臨挑戰。雖然我們預計第一季的開局會較慢，但我們確實預計全年商品車運量將出現溫和增長，這得益於穩定的服務驅動型轉換和新的工業開發項目，這些項目在2025 年退出時應該會加速。

Now let's turn to Slide 9 to review the coal business. Coal revenue declined 20% for the quarter on 7% lower volume, as we've navigated the effects of reduced global benchmark pricing and production issues. All-in coal RPU declined 14% year-over-year and 4% sequentially, in line with previous guidance. Export volume fell modestly, largely due to lower supply availability of certain coal mines with temporary geological issues, limited production. That said, for all of 2024, export coal volume grew by 9%, even considering the impacts of the Key Bridge and the ship loader outage at Curtis Bay.

現在讓我們轉向投影片 9 來回顧一下煤炭業務。由於我們已經克服了全球基準定價下降和生產問題的影響，本季煤炭收入下降了 20%，銷售量下降了 7%。煤炭總 RPU 年減 14%，季減 4%，與先前的指引一致。出口量小幅下降，主要是由於某些煤礦因臨時地質問題而供應量減少，產量有限。也就是說，即使考慮到基橋和柯蒂斯灣裝船機停駛的影響，2024 年全年煤炭出口量仍增加 9%。

Exports represented more than half of our coal carloads for the full year, a first for CSX. [Domestic] shipments were pressured during the quarter, driven by lower natural gas prices and ample utility stockpiles. More recently, we have seen colder winter weather that has begun to reduce utility stockpiles, providing incremental opportunities as we move into the summer months. As we look into 2025, we anticipate a decline in coal volume with the weakest year-over-year performance in the first quarter.

全年煤炭裝載量的一半以上用於出口，這對 CSX 來說尚屬首次。由於天然氣價格下跌和公用事業庫存充足，本季[國內]出貨量受到壓力。最近，我們看到冬季天氣變冷，公用事業庫存開始減少，為進入夏季提供了增量機會。展望 2025 年，我們預期煤炭產量將下降，第一季較去年同期表現最弱。

This includes temporary production outages at a couple of its CSX-served mines that will mainly impact the first half of 2025, from year-over-year volume -- from a year-over-year volume perspective. Based on current global benchmark prices, we expect all-in coal RPU to be down roughly 3% sequentially in the first quarter.

這包括 CSX 服務的幾個礦山的臨時生產中斷，從同比產量的角度來看，這將主要影響 2025 年上半年。根據目前的全球基準價格，我們預計第一季煤炭 RPU 將季減約 3%。

As we have highlighted previously, we also see a couple of plant closures at domestic utilities that are scheduled for later this year. Despite these challenges, our utility customers are facing accelerating growth in power demand across areas of our service network or data center buildouts are in progress. Lower utilization rates at existing CSX serve utilities does provide opportunities to work with customers to meet increased demand.

正如我們之前強調的那樣，我們還看到國內公用事業公司計劃在今年稍後關閉一些工廠。儘管有這些挑戰，我們的公用事業客戶仍面臨著我們的服務網路或資料中心擴建領域的電力需求加速成長的問題。現有 CSX 服務設施的利用率較低，確實提供了與客戶合作以滿足不斷增長的需求的機會。

Turning to Slide 10 to review the intermodal business. Fourth quarter revenue declined 5% on a 4% increase in volume. With lower diesel prices year-over-year significantly impacting revenue per unit by 7%. Our domestic intermodal business performed well for the quarter, converting traffic from over the road even in this challenging truck market. We have been -- we have many initiatives underway, including continued growth in our direct business, new volume related to our Myrtle wood interchange, future improvements in double stacking capabilities into the Mid-Atlantic and many other many others that make us optimistic about our growth ahead.

請參閱投影片 10 回顧聯運業務。第四季營收下降 5%，但銷量成長 4%。柴油價格年減，對每單位收入造成 7% 的顯著影響。我們的國內多式聯運業務本季表現良好，即使在這個充滿挑戰的卡車市場中，也成功轉換了公路交通。我們已經- 我們正在進行許多舉措，包括我們的直接業務的持續增長，與我們的香桃木交換相關的新數量，未來改進進入大西洋中部的雙層堆疊能力以及許多其他使我們對我們的業務感到樂觀的其他舉措未來的成長。

Within international, quarterly performance remained robust, allowing us to deliver strong growth for the full year as we gain from alignment with our key customers.

在國際範圍內，季度業績保持強勁，使我們能夠透過與主要客戶的合作而實現全年的強勁增長。

Overall, we continue to compete in wind intermodal business. Our inland port initiatives remain on track, and we're excited about the prospects of closer alignment with our channel partners. As the political and trade lands shifts, we will remain in close contact with our customers, ensuring that we will be able to adapt to their needs. As we look ahead to 2025 and beyond, there's a lot to be excited about.

總體而言，我們繼續在風電多式聯運業務中競爭。我們的內陸港口計劃仍在按計劃進行，我們對與通路合作夥伴更緊密合作的前景感到興奮。隨著政治和貿易格局的變化，我們將與客戶保持密切聯繫，確保我們能夠適應他們的需求。展望 2025 年及以後，有很多事情值得興奮。

With that, let me turn it over to Sean.

那麼，讓我把它交給肖恩。

Thanks, Kevin, and good afternoon. Reported operating income and earnings per share both fell by 16% in the fourth quarter, impacted by $108 million or $0.04 impairment of goodwill related to quality carriers. I'll now speak to the fourth quarter income statement on an adjusted basis, excluding the goodwill impairment charge. Revenue was lower by about $140 million or 4%. Declines in fuel and export coal benchmark prices as well as business interruption from the hurricanes drove of a combined impact of around $200 million.

謝謝，凱文，下午好。受與優質航空公司相關的商譽減值 1.08 億美元或 0.04 美元的影響，第四季度報告的營業收入和每股收益均下降 16%。我現在將討論調整後的第四季損益表，不包括商譽減損費用。收入減少約 1.4 億美元，即 4%。燃料和出口煤炭基準價格的下降以及颶風造成的業務中斷共同造成了約 2 億美元的影響。

Despite these challenges, the team delivered an eighth consecutive quarter of 3-plus percent growth in combined merchandise and intermodal revenue, excluding fuel.

儘管面臨這些挑戰，該團隊的商品和聯運收入（不包括燃料）連續第八個季度實現了 3% 以上的成長。

We remain focused on operating efficiently and delivered an adjusted expense reduction of 2% with more details on the next slide. Interest and other expense was stable compared to the prior year. Adjusted income tax expense decreased $33 million. The effective tax rate of 22% included a $26 million benefit, largely driven by the revaluation of the state deferred tax liability. Our expected tax rate going forward continues to be 24.5%.

我們仍然專注於高效運營，並實現了 2% 的調整後費用削減，下一張幻燈片提供了更多詳細資訊。利息和其他費用與去年相比保持穩定。調整後所得稅費用減少 3,300 萬美元。22% 的有效稅率包括 2,600 萬美元的收益，這主要是由州遞延稅負債的重估所推動的。我們預計未來稅率仍為 24.5%。

As a result, adjusted earnings per share fell $0.03, including a $0.06 combined impact from hurricanes net fuel price and lower export coal benchmarks.

結果，調整後每股收益下降了 0.03 美元，其中包括颶風淨燃料價格和較低的出口煤炭基準的綜合影響 0.06 美元。

Let's now turn to the next slide for a closer look at expenses. Fourth quarter adjusted expenses decreased $40 million. Turning to the individual line items Labor and fringe was $26 million lower, driven by lower incentive compensation expense and other items, partly offset by inflation. As expected, head count increased slightly from the third quarter attributed to the timing of train and engine employee hiring, aiming to qualify the new employees ahead of the 2025 summer vacation season. We expect to absorb volume growth in 2025 with average head count remaining stable versus current levels, while cost per employee will be higher year-over-year in line with labor inflation.

現在讓我們翻到下一張投影片來仔細了解費用。第四季調整後費用減少 4000 萬美元。就個別項目而言，由於激勵補償費用和其他項目減少，勞動力和邊緣項目減少了 2,600 萬美元，部分被通貨膨脹所抵消。正如預期的那樣，由於火車和發動機員工招聘的時間安排，員工人數較第三季度略有增加，目的是在 2025 年暑假季節之前使新員工具備資格。我們預計 2025 年將吸收銷售成長，平均員工數與當前水準相比保持穩定，而每名員工的成本將與去年同期相比上升，與勞動力通膨一致。

Purchased services and other expense increased $43 million. The variance includes approximately $25 million of smaller impairment charges, which were largely offset by a favorable legal settlement. Additional variances were driven by inflation, expenses related to the timing of locomotive modernizations and storm recovery costs. Depreciation was up $17 million on a higher asset base, in line with the rate of quarter-over-quarter increase we expect in 2025. Fuel cost was down $86 million driven by a lower gallon price and a fourth consecutive quarter of year-over-year efficiency savings.

購買的服務和其他費用增加了 4,300 萬美元。該差異包括約 2500 萬美元的較小減值費用，該費用大部分被有利的法律​​和解所抵消。額外的差異是由通貨膨脹、與機車現代化時間相關的費用以及風暴恢復成本造成的。由於資產基礎較高，折舊增加了 1700 萬美元，與我們預計 2025 年的季度環比增長率一致。由於加侖價格下降以及連續第四個季度同比效率節省，燃料成本下降了 8,600 萬美元。

Finally, equipment and other rents increased by $7 million, while property gains were $5 million unfavorable in the quarter. Now turning to the discussion of full year adjusted results on slide 14. Revenue finished 1% lower for the year on 2% volume growth, while adjusted operating income was 3% lower and adjusted earnings per share increased by $0.01.

最後，本季設備和其他租金增加了 700 萬美元，而財產收益增加了 500 萬美元。現在轉向幻燈片 14 上全年調整後業績的討論。全年營收下降 1%，銷售成長 2%，調整後營業收入下降 3%，調整後每股收益增加 0.01 美元。

This includes over $400 million of operating income headwinds from the discrete items we have discussed throughout the year. As a result of our increasingly collaborative approach with customers consistent operational execution and cultural improvement lowering to our frontline employees delivering the service product, our customers are rewarding us with steady and profitable volume growth.

這包括我們全年討論的離散項目帶來的超過 4 億美元的營業收入阻力。由於我們與客戶日益合作的方式一致的營運執行和文化改進降低了我們的第一線員工提供服務產品的水平，我們的客戶正在回報我們穩定和盈利的銷售增長。

In fact, volume increased in all 4 quarters for the first time in 10 years, while full year merchandise and internal pricing gains were once again above cost inflation. At the same time, we remain highly focused on controlling costs, eliminating waste and improving efficiency.

事實上，四個季度的銷售量十年來首次出現成長，而全年商品和內部定價收益再次高於成本通膨。同時，我們仍然高度關注控製成本、消除浪費和提高效率。

Mike and the operating team made impressive strides in fuel efficiency during 2024, resulting in approximately $45 million of savings. PS&O costs increased by just $50 million versus 2023, inclusive of headwinds from prior year insurance recoveries as well as storm-related costs in 2024. Core PS&O expense was stable in the face of inflation and 2% higher volume, benefiting from numerous initiatives across operating and G&A functions.

2024 年，Mike 和營運團隊在燃油效率方面取得了令人矚目的進步，節省了約 4,500 萬美元。與 2023 年相比，PS&O 成本僅增加了 5,000 萬美元，其中包括上一年保險賠償帶來的不利因素以及 2024 年與風暴相關的成本。核心 PS&O 支出在通貨膨脹的情況下保持穩定，且數量增加了 2%，這得益於營運和 G&A 職能部門的眾多舉措。

PS&O will be pressured in 2025 by the Howard Street Tunnel project as well as ongoing locomotive modernizations and cloud computing expense, but we are committed to unlocking further savings. Our head count stabilized during 2024 with volume gains outpacing employee growth over the second half of the year, and we expect to continue delivering labor productivity gains going forward.

到 2025 年，PS&O 將面臨霍華德街隧道計畫以及正在進行的機車現代化和雲端運算費用的壓力，但我們致力於進一步節省成本。我們的員工數量在 2024 年保持穩定，下半年的數量成長超過了員工成長，我們預計未來將繼續實現勞動生產力的成長。

Turning our attention to 2025. This company is headed in the right direction. We're building a strong culture, serving our customers at high levels, pairing new business wins and industrial development opportunities with ongoing efficiency to deliver strong bottom line performance. and investing for the future. That said, the 3 considerations listed on this slide could drive significant net unfavorable impacts this year.

將我們的注意力轉向 2025 年。這家公司正朝著正確的方向前進。我們正在建立強大的文化，為客戶提供高水準的服務，將新的業務勝利和工業發展機會與持續的效率結合起來，以提供強勁的底線績效。並為未來投資。也就是說，本投影片中列出的 3 個考慮因素可能會在今年產生重大的淨不利影響。

As we enter the year, export coal benchmarks and fuel prices are working against us. And if they remain stable, would result in a combined $300 million impact versus 2024, with nearly half of that in Q1 alone.

進入今年，出口煤炭基準和燃料價格對我們不利。如果它們保持穩定，與 2024 年相比，將產生總計 3 億美元的影響，其中僅第一季就有近一半的影響。

On the flip side, we expect a roughly $50 million net operating income benefit from cycling unique events, including hurricanes and the key bridge collapse, net of anticipated higher incentive comp in 2025.

另一方面，我們預計，扣除 2025 年預期更高的激勵補償後，包括颶風和關鍵橋樑倒塌在內的自行車獨特賽事將帶來約 5,000 萬美元的淨營運收入收益。

Finally, as we've outlined before, major construction projects on the Howard Street Tunnel and hurricane-impacted Blue Ridge subdivision will drive an incremental $10 million per month net impact into Q4. Q1 operating income will be our trough well below prior year.

最後，正如我們之前概述的那樣，霍華德街隧道和受颶風影響的藍嶺分區的重大建設項目將為第四季度帶來每月 1000 萬美元的淨影響增量。第一季營業收入將是我們的低谷，遠低於去年同期。

Results will improve from there, and we expect to return to year-over-year growth in the second half. At our Investor Day in November, we presented a theme of proven model with powerful momentum and profitable growth. Despite the discrete pressures the ONE CSX team remains confident in our long-term guidance.

業績將從此改善，我們預計下半年將恢復年成長。在 11 月的投資者日上，我們提出了一個主題：經過驗證的模型，具有強大的動力和獲利成長。儘管面臨離散的壓力，ONE CSX 團隊仍然對我們的長期指導充滿信心。

Let's now discuss cash flows and distributions on slide 16. Investing in the safety and reliability of our infrastructure is our highest priority use of cash. Additionally, 2024 capital spending included increased allocations towards rolling stock and other return-generating investments support a pipeline of future growth and efficiency opportunities.

現在讓我們討論幻燈片 16 上的現金流量和分配。投資基礎設施的安全性和可靠性是我們使用現金的首要任務。此外，2024 年的資本支出包括增加對機車車輛和其他產生回報的投資的分配，支持未來成長和效率機會的管道。

The 2024 infrastructure figure also includes around $50 million of initial spend on our Blue rate sub division following the devastation caused by Hurricane Helene. We now expect total cost to exceed $400 million before insurance recoveries as we work diligently to reopen this important route that will serve our customers for generations to come.

2024 年的基礎設施數字還包括颶風海倫造成破壞後，我們的 Blue 費率子部門的約 5,000 萬美元的初始支出。現在，我們預計在保險賠償之前總成本將超過 4 億美元，因為我們正在努力重新開放這條將為子孫後代服務的重要路線。

Strong cash flow also supported close to $3.2 billion in shareholder returns for the year, including over $2.2 billion in share repurchases and $900 million of dividends. The share repurchase program once again outperformed, with CSX purchasing shares at a 2% discount to the market price in Q4, delivering value to ongoing owners. Economic profit finished lower for the year, largely due to the discrete items mentioned on the prior slide, our goal is to increase economic profit over time, which has been shown to strongly correlate with outsized shareholder returns.

強勁的現金流也支撐了全年近 32 億美元的股東回報，其中包括超過 22 億美元的股票回購和 9 億美元的股息。股票回購計劃再次表現出色，CSX 在第四季度以較市場價格 2% 的折扣購買股票，為現有所有者帶來了價值。今年的經濟利潤較低，主要是由於上一張幻燈片中提到的離散項目，我們的目標是隨著時間的推移增加經濟利潤，這已被證明與巨額股東回報密切相關。

With that, let me turn it back to Joe for his closing remarks.

接下來，讓我把話題轉回喬的結案陳詞。

All right. Thank you, Sean. We will finish up our prepared remarks by discussing our expectations for 2025. As you heard from Kevin, many markets remain uncertain as we look ahead at the full year. Operationally, we are undertaking substantial projects to rebuild the [Blue Ridge] subdivision after Hurricane Helene and expand the housing tunnel in Baltimore.

好的。謝謝你，肖恩。我們將透過討論我們對 2025 年的期望來結束我們準備好的發言。正如您從凱文那裡聽到的，當我們展望全年時，許多市場仍然不確定。在營運方面，我們正在進行重大項目，以在海倫颶風過後重建[藍嶺]分區，並擴建巴爾的摩的住房隧道。

That said, the momentum we have both our leading customer service gives us confidence that we can deliver volume growth in the low to mid-single-digit range, driven by our merchandise and intermodal business. we expect volumes in the first quarter to show the effects of weather and a slow start for the auto industry and then build over the course of the year.

也就是說，我們擁有領先的客戶服務的勢頭讓我們有信心，在我們的商品和多式聯運業務的推動下，我們能夠實現中低個位數的銷售成長。我們預計第一季的銷售將受到天氣和汽車行業緩慢啟動的影響，然後在全年中不斷增加。

Given the scheduled coal plant closures and a number of mine production issues, we do anticipate coal volumes to be lower year-over-year in 2025. Next, Consistent with our commentary over the last few months, we expect full year revenue to be impacted by lower global benchmark pricing for coal and reduced fuel surcharge, particularly in the first half of 2025. Mix will also be a factor as the Intermodal business has lowest RPU, but is likely show the fastest growth this year. RS to drive efficiency improvements and manage controllable costs will continue. .

鑑於燃煤電廠計畫關閉和一些礦山生產問題，我們預計 2025 年煤炭產量將年減。接下來，與我們過去幾個月的評論一致，我們預計全年收入將受到全球煤炭基準定價下降和燃油附加費降低的影響，特別是在 2025 年上半年。混合也將是一個因素，因為多式聯運業務的 RPU 最低，但今年可能呈現最快的成長。RS 將持續推動效率提高和管理可控製成本。。

As Sean discussed, the Blue Ridge rebuild and the Howard Free tunnel project will add expense over the year, but our team is working hard to deliver productivity gains. Even our current outlook, we expect to hold our head count effectively flat for the year. We plan on CapEx being roughly flat year-over-year, excluding spend on the hurricane recovery, which we report out throughout the year.

正如肖恩所討論的，藍嶺重建和霍華德自由隧道計畫將在一年內增加費用，但我們的團隊正在努力提高生產力。即使我們目前的前景，我們預計今年的員工人數將保持不變。我們計劃資本支出年比大致持平，不包括我們全年報告的颶風恢復支出。

And finally, our capital allocation [parties] remain unchanged. And -- we will continue to invest in the safety and fluidity of our network, execute on high-return growth projects and opportunistically distribute capital to our shareholders. To sum up, I am proud of how the ONE CSX team responded to the challenges that we encountered over 2024. There are great opportunities ahead in 2025 and the longer term. We will execute and deliver on them on behalf of our customers and our shareholders.

最後，我們的資本配置[各方]保持不變。而且 - 我們將繼續投資於我們網路的安全性和流動性，執行高回報成長項目，並機會主義地將資本分配給我們的股東。總而言之，我對 ONE CSX 團隊應對 2024 年遇到的挑戰的方式感到自豪。2025 年以及更長遠的未來，存在著巨大的機會。我們將代表我們的客戶和股東執行和交付它們。

I have no doubt that CSX will continue to move forward, and we look forward to keeping you updated on our progress.

我毫不懷疑 CSX 將繼續前進，我們期待向您通報我們的最新進展。

We'll now be happy to answer your questions. Matthew, let's begin the Q&A process.

我們現在很樂意回答您的問題。馬修，讓我們開始問答過程。

Thank you, Joe. We will now proceed to our question and answer session but to make sure that everyone has the opportunity to take part in.

謝謝你，喬。我們現在將進行問答環節，但確保每個人都有機會參加。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

Tom Wadewitz with UBS.

瑞銀集團的湯姆·瓦德維茨。

Yes. I wanted to see if you were pretty clear on some of the headwinds, and it sounds like a lot of those are in 1Q and first half. How do you think about full year margin performance -- and if you kind of come out with some strengthening in volume in second half, can you see it potentially improve? Or is that tough to do given how meaningful some of the headwinds are?

是的。我想看看您是否對一些不利因素非常清楚，聽起來很多都出現在第一季和上半年。您如何看待全年利潤率表現—如果下半年銷量有所增強，您是否認為它有可能改善？或者考慮到一些不利因素的影響有多大，這是否很難做到？

Tom, it's Sean. So yes, I mean, I think clearly, the headwinds are going to be concentrated here in the first half of the year, worse in Q1 than Q2. So first half of the year, I think margin improvement is sort of out of the question unless something changes with commodity prices or what have you. As we get to the second half, yes, I mean, I think it's quite possible we see not only growth in operating income, the margins as well in the second half, assuming that the environment that we're operating in a stable, the core fundamentals remain in place. We're going to grow volume low to mid-single digits, and that will be very supportive.

湯姆，我是肖恩。所以，是的，我的意思是，我清楚地認為，不利因素將集中在今年上半年，第一季比第二季更糟。因此，今年上半年，我認為利潤率改善是不可能的，除非大宗商品價格或其他情況改變。當我們進入下半年時，是的，我的意思是，我認為我們很可能不僅看到營業收入的成長，而且下半年的利潤率也出現成長，假設我們的營運環境穩定，核心基本面仍然存在。我們將把銷量成長到低至中個位數，這將是非常有支持性的。

To operating income and margin growth over time, particularly some of these headwinds ease given the capacity that we have on the network to absorb that growth.

隨著時間的推移，營業收入和利潤率的成長，特別是考慮到我們在網路上吸收成長的能力，其中一些不利因素有所緩解。

Scott Group with Wolfe Research.

斯科特集團與沃爾夫研究公司。

So similar question, but not about margin, just about like operating income dollars. Do you think we grow operating income this year? Or is that I get down a lot in the first quarter. It sounds like up in the back half. When you add it all up, do you think we'd grow operating income this year?

類似的問題，但不是關於利潤率，而是關於營業收入美元。您認為我們今年的營業收入會成長嗎？或者是我在第一季情緒低落了很多。聽起來像是在後半部。當你把所有這些加起來時，你認為我們今年的營業收入會增加嗎？

Scott, so obviously, we didn't give specific guidance on what that's going to look like over the course of the year. What I would say is if those headwinds that we outlined of $350 million weren't there, we would deliver pretty solid growth in operating income this year, low to mid-single-digit volume growth at 50% to 70% incremental margins that we talked about at the Investor Day is a good setup.

斯科特，很明顯，我們沒有就今年的情況給出具體指導。我想說的是，如果我們概述的3.5 億美元的不利因素不存在，我們今年的營業收入將實現相當穩健的增長，銷量增長將達到低至中個位數，增量利潤率為50% 至70%。

We do have some other challenges this year in terms of some of the utility coal headwinds that Kevin outlined, the mine issues we've got right now. as well as some of the closures later on in the year. So that makes this year a little bit worse.

今年我們確實面臨著一些其他挑戰，例如凱文概述的一些公用事業煤炭逆風，以及我們現在遇到的礦場問題。以及今年晚些時候的一些關閉。所以這讓今年的情況變得更糟。

But going forward, we feel pretty good about being able to hold those coal volumes relatively stable with some opportunity in exports.

但展望未來，我們對能夠維持煤炭產量相對穩定並有一些出口機會感到非常滿意。

So, on an adjusted basis, what I would say is if you were kind of looking at our Investor Day guidance of mid- to high single-digit operating income growth this year, we'd be towards the lower end of that, if you adjust for the discrete headwinds and then in the following years, we'll see a bit of a rebound, particularly as we cycle some of the issues around -- or some of the costs related to the construction projects we've got going on this year.

因此，在調整後的基礎上，我想說的是，如果你看看我們今年投資者日指導中的中高個位數營業收入增長，我們會朝著這個較低的方向發展，如果你針對離散的逆風進行調整，然後在接下來的幾年中，我們將看到一些反彈，特別是當我們循環解決一些問題時，或者與我們正在進行的建設項目相關的一些成本時年。

Stephanie Moore with Jefferies.

史蒂芬妮·摩爾和杰弗里斯。

This is Joe Hafen on for Stephanie Moore. Maybe stepping away from the guidance for a second, relative to when we last spoke on your Investor Day, I was wondering if you could highlight any incremental conversations that you guys have had with customers related to the industrial development pipeline if there's intangible things you can point to just relative conversation with customers you've been having over the last couple of months post election?

我是喬·哈芬（Joe Hafen）為斯蒂芬妮·摩爾（Stephanie Moore）發言。也許暫時離開指導，相對於我們上次在投資者日發言時，我想知道您是否可以強調一下你們與工業開發管道相關的客戶進行的任何增量對話，如果有無形的東西可以指出選舉後過去幾個月您與客戶進行的相關對話？

Yes. I think when we're coming into this year, obviously, given the political landscape changing pretty rapidly here, we thought there might be a pause in activity in new projects going out for bid. We've actually seen quite the opposite. We've seen that really stay healthy, and we're -- a number of new projects have come our way that we're working on and the group is very, very busy. So I think that's a big positive for us.

是的。我認為，當我們進入今年時，顯然，考慮到這裡的政治格局變化得相當快，我們認為新項目的投標活動可能會暫停。我們實際上看到了完全相反的情況。我們已經看到這種情況確實保持健康，而且我們正在進行許多新項目，整個團隊非常非常忙碌。所以我認為這對我們來說是一個很大的正面因素。

Obviously, there's a long tail to those projects. You have to get them permitted and then get them underway.

顯然，這些項目有一個長尾。你必須獲得他們的許可，然後讓他們開始。

But we see that strength that we noted at the Investor Day really continuing in the first quarter here. And hopefully accelerating with some of the, obviously, policy that may take place here in the next few months.

但我們看到，我們在投資者日註意到的強勁勢頭在第一季確實持續存在。希望未來幾個月可能會推出一些政策來加速這項進程。

Chris Wetherbee with Wells Fargo.

富國銀行的克里斯‧韋瑟比。

I want to pick up on the comment that you mentioned. I think you said that ex some cost items you'd be in the sort of the mid-single digit or the lower end of sort of the EBIT range. I guess I want to make sure I understand that dynamic in the context of low to mid-single-digit volume growth. So I guess when we think about some of the other puts and takes that would drop from revenue down to -- or volume down to profit, can you talk maybe a little bit about the pricing outlook that you think about '25 how that compares to 2024?

我想了解你提到的評論。我認為您說過，除某些成本項目外，您的息稅前利潤範圍將處於中個位數或下端。我想我想確保我理解在低到中個位數的銷售成長背景下的動態。因此，我想當我們考慮其他一些看跌期權和看跌期權時，它們會從收入下降到——或者從交易量下降到利潤，你能談談你認為 25 年的定價前景嗎？

Chris, I'll start and then maybe kick it over to Kevin on the pricing side. Yes. So essentially, what I was saying there is, if you take those $350 million of headwinds assuming commodity prices on the coal and fuel side remain flat. You've got the network disruption as well as some of the things recycling from last year. And adjust for that, we'd be roughly in the kind of lower end of the mid- to high single-digit range, plus or minus a little bit depending on what happens over the course of the year with the economic environment.

克里斯，我會開始，然後可能會將定價方面的問題交給凱文。是的。所以本質上，我所說的是，如果你考慮到這 3.5 億美元的逆風，假設煤炭和燃料方面的大宗商品價格保持不變。網路中斷，去年的一些東西也被回收。並對此進行調整，我們將大致處於中高個位數範圍的下端，根據一年中經濟環境的情況而加減一點。

But we feel very good about pricing, and I'll give Kevin an opportunity to speak to that.

但我們對定價感覺非常好，我會給凱文一個機會來談論這一點。

Yes. I think on the merchandise side, nothing really changing there. We continue to [indiscernible] the market and really leverage the service product that we have. The biggest difference versus last year, obviously, as you've seen on the commodity price for coal. So that's -- met coal prices have come down.

是的。我認為在商品方面，沒有什麼真正改變。我們繼續[音訊不清晰]市場並真正利用我們擁有的服務產品。顯然，與去年相比最大的差異是煤炭大宗商品價格。所以，煤炭價格已經下降。

As you know, our contracts reflect move with those prices. And so we've seen that. Hopefully, we'll see some strength pick up, but that's -- that market is very, very dynamic. And I will say on the intermodal side, it's encouraging to see at least some stabilization and maybe some contractual rates starting to move up slightly. So I'm not here to call the cycle.

如您所知，我們的合約反映了這些價格的變動。我們已經看到了這一點。希望我們會看到一些力量的增強，但那就是——這個市場非常非常有活力。我想說的是，在多式聯運方面，令人鼓舞的是，至少看到一些穩定，也許一些合約費率開始略有上升。所以我不是來呼籲這個週期的。

I think others are better prepared to do that. But as we see, hopefully, through the year and in the back half, we might see a little bit more support than what we certainly saw last year in 2024.

我認為其他人已經做好了更好的準備。但正如我們所看到的，希望在今年和下半年，我們可能會看到比去年 2024 年更多的支持。

Ariel Rosa with Citigroup.

花旗集團的阿里爾·羅莎。

Great. So I just actually wanted to stay on that line of questioning. Maybe you could talk about the impact of tightening truck capacity. And what's usually the lag in terms of where we would expect to see that reflected in results? And specifically, I assume it would be reflected primarily in intermodal.

偉大的。所以我實際上只是想繼續提問。也許您可以談談收緊卡車運力的影響。就我們期望在結果中反映出來的情況而言，通常的延遲是多少？具體來說，我認為這將主要反映在聯運中。

But if you could talk about kind of other areas where we might see that impact kind of flow through results would be appreciated?

但是，如果您能談談我們可能會看到影響結果的其他領域，我們將不勝感激？

Yes. The most obvious one is intermodal, but there's a lot of work that the team is doing on merchandise side from a truck and version point of view. And -- when you think about an environment where in the do nothing scenario, a customer can get savings by staying with truck, even though the value proposition might be greater with rail, that -- there's not a lot of momentum to do that.

是的。最明顯的是多式聯運，但從卡車和版本的角度來看，團隊在商品方面做了很多工作。而且，當你想到在什麼都不做的情況下，客戶可以透過使用卡車來節省成本，儘管鐵路的價值主張可能更大，但這樣做的動力並不大。

And this year, I think some of our discussions are on the merchandise side and really accelerate as customers are looking for additional cost savings and we can really lean into that. So I'm optimistic that's going to be the case, and that's the market that we can have a little bit of a supportive market, which we've been fighting over the last couple of years here will be very beneficial to us.

今年，我認為我們的一些討論是在商品方面，隨著客戶尋求額外的成本節省而真正加速，我們可以真正依靠這一點。因此，我對情況會如此樂觀，這就是我們可以擁有一點支持性市場的市場，過去幾年我們一直在這裡奮鬥，這對我們非常有利。

Intermodal, when we look at our pricing, it does lag the market a bit here. So contracts, even though the shorter duration ones can be a year, and a lot of that takes place in the first part of the year. And so if we start to see some momentum, the bigger impact probably starts next year, but we could see some benefit as we exit this year.

多式聯運，當我們查看我們的定價時，它確實有點落後於市場。因此，合約雖然期限較短，但可能是一年，而且其中許多都發生在今年的上半年。因此，如果我們開始看到一些勢頭，更大的影響可能會在明年開始，但當我們今年退出時，我們可能會看到一些好處。

Brandon Oglenski with Barclays.

巴克萊銀行的布蘭登‧奧格倫斯基。

Joe, I'm sure investors are excited here at the opportunity long term for growth. But obviously, with some of the earnings headwinds when GDP is up, that might be a little frustrated in the near term. But maybe can you talk to what this tunnel project will ultimately yield getting beyond some of the hurricane damage in the Blue Ridge region? And should we be thinking that 2026 could actually be that much better when you think about margin opportunity, incremental margins, pricing, volumes, et cetera?

喬，我確信投資者對長期成長的機會感到興奮。但顯然，由於 GDP 成長時獲利會遇到一些阻力，短期內可能會有些沮喪。但也許您能談談這個隧道計畫最終將帶來什麼，超越藍嶺地區的一些颶風破壞？當你考慮利潤機會、增量利潤、定價、銷售等時，我們是否應該認為 2026 年實際上可能會好得多？

Thanks, Brandon. Yes, I mean, I think you've heard from including other transports is that while the GDP has been growing, the industrial side of the economy has been flat or down over the last couple of years, which more closely aligns with certainly on the merchandise side of our business.

謝謝，布蘭登。是的，我的意思是，我想您從包括其他運輸在內的情況中聽到的是，雖然國內生產總值一直在增長，但經濟的工業方面在過去幾年中一直持平或下降，這與肯定更緊密地一致我們業務的商品方面。

So the interest rate sensitive parts, automotive is still well below pre-pandemic levels, housing market and steel, other things like that. So we're obviously looking forward to hopefully whether it be interest rates coming down or other policy changes that will help the industrial side of the economy, and maybe we'll see a little bit of growth this year for the first time in a couple of years.

因此，對利率敏感的零件、汽車、房地產市場和鋼鐵等仍遠低於疫情前的水平。因此，我們顯然期待著無論是利率下降還是其他政策變化都將有助於經濟的工業方面，也許今年我們將在幾年內首次看到一點增長年。

So certainly, that will impact us. I think at a higher level, the Howard Street Tunnel project is one of the most important projects in this company. And as Mike highlighted in his commentary, we've been waiting for a long time to do this. And we had a plan that was going to be a 3-year plan that we've now accelerated into 1 year, which is going to be done in the 2025 calendar year. That, of course, means 2025 will have a lot more expense tied to it for the rerouting costs and taking care of our customers while we do that.

當然，這將會影響我們。我認為從更高的層面來看，霍華德街隧道計畫是該公司最重要的計畫之一。正如麥克在評論中所強調的那樣，我們為此等待了很長時間。我們有一個為期 3 年的計劃，現在已加速為 1 年計劃，將於 2025 年完成。當然，這意味著 2025 年將有更多的費用用於重新路由成本以及在我們這樣做時照顧我們的客戶。

But we get the benefits much sooner than originally planned, which helps in '26 and '27. And those benefits include the ability for us to run double stack all the way up and down the East Coast, including places from Chicago.

但我們比最初計劃的要早得多，這對 26 和 27 年有所幫助。這些好處包括我們能夠在東海岸上下運行雙棧，包括從芝加哥開始的地方。

There are trains we can't take right now from Chicago double stack to the East Coast because we can't get through the Howard Street tunnel and some bridges around that area. So you can go all the way out to our interchange with our Western rails and talk about the advantages that will help us. It's one of the -- probably it's not the largest competitor even have right now on our intermodal business has been the inability to double stack and be able to reach the high population density sectors because of that. So this is a big deal. I mean actually, if you step back between the MMBR interchange that's now open, which was one of the other competitive advantages we had on intermodal and other parts of our franchise.

我們現在無法搭乘從芝加哥雙層車站到東海岸的火車，因為我們無法通過霍華德街隧道和該地區周圍的一些橋樑。因此，您可以一路走到我們與西部鐵路的交匯處，談論對我們有幫助的優勢。這可能不是我們多式聯運業務目前最大的競爭對手之一，因為它無法雙層堆疊並無法到達人口密度高的部門。所以這是一件大事。我的意思是，實際上，如果你退一步看看現在開放的 MMBR 交匯處，這是我們在聯運和特許經營的其他部分上擁有的其他競爭優勢之一。

And now the Howard Street tunnels going to take care of probably the 2 biggest competitive advantages we had in our network by the end of 2025. So we're really [indiscernible] about that. And that's a big deal because right now, we have to double stack, we have to roll up through upstate New York down. So you can imagine all the weather in the winter doing that, but also the outer route miles that are tremendous. And so -- and frankly, we can't run up and down that I-95 corridor with double stack right now.

現在，到 2025 年底，霍華德街隧道將成為我們網路中的兩大競爭優勢。所以我們真的對此[音頻不清晰]。這是一件大事，因為現在我們必須雙層堆疊，我們必須通過紐約州北部向下滾動。因此，您可以想像冬天的所有天氣都會造成這種情況，而且外線里程也將是巨大的。因此，坦白說，我們現在無法在 I-95 走廊上使用雙層堆疊來回跑動。

So a big deal to us. We're looking forward to those benefits. So yes, that will contribute to more meaningful ability to grow products in '26 and '27 along with other things that are going on, including desal development, including the efficiency actions we're taking across the network and including all the work that we're doing with our customers.

所以對我們來說很重要。我們期待著這些好處。所以，是的，這將有助於在26 和27 年增加產品的更有意義的能力，以及正在發生的其他事情，包括海水淡化開發，包括我們在整個網路中採取的效率行動，包括我們所做的所有工作。

So -- we continue to be very excited about the potential of this business and support the targets and stuff that we outlined at our Investor Day in November. And that if you can do the math now and say, okay, as Sean highlighted, '25 is going to be the lower end of that. That means we're still very strongly believe in our plan that '26 and '27 will be more supportive of making that happen.

因此，我們仍然對這項業務的潛力感到非常興奮，並支持我們在 11 月投資者日概述的目標和內容。如果你現在可以算一下，好吧，正如肖恩所強調的那樣，「25」將是這個數字的下限。這意味著我們仍然堅信我們的計劃，即 26 和 27 年將更加支持實現這一目標。

Brian Ossenbeck with JPMorgan.

摩根大通的布萊恩‧奧森貝克。

So I guess maybe one for Mike. Should we expect is this tunnel project gets underway. There are going to be some meaningful deterioration or adjustments that we're going to see in some of the service metrics. Just trying to figure out how that would play out considering it is such a big undertaking in the compressed for time. And then maybe just also get your thoughts on just the general health of the network having absorbed a couple of hurricanes, a couple port strikes or one near miss.

所以我想也許是麥克的一個。我們是否應該期待這個隧道工程開始進行？我們將在某些服務指標中看到一些有意義的惡化或調整。考慮到在時間緊迫的情況下這是一項艱鉅的任務，我只是想弄清楚這將如何發揮作用。然後也許您還可以了解網路在經歷了幾起颶風、幾次港口襲擊或一次險些發生事故後的整體健康狀況。

And just your thoughts on staffing levels because it sounds like you're already pretty well staffed up into next year.

只是您對人員配置水平的想法，因為聽起來您已經為明年做好了充足的人員配置。

So getting through all this in the near term, how do you feel like the network is positioned to hit that growth when it does come back perhaps in the back half of the year?

因此，在短期內經歷這一切之後，您認為該網路在下半年可能會恢復成長時處於何種位置？

Thanks for the question, Brian. I'm not going to get you to repeat the first part, but I can barely remember it. No, I'm just kidding. In terms of the tunnel, Brian, we have already taken steps in the fourth quarter to start to move traffic and rerouted off the tunnel. And so we're prepared cost, Sean is talking about really is reflective of what we have to do to maintain some of our customer commitments and Detour somewhere else that we're paying a haulage for.

謝謝你的提問，布萊恩。我不會讓你重複第一部分，但我幾乎記不起來了。不，我只是開玩笑。就隧道而言，布萊恩，我們已經在第四季度採取措施開始疏導交通並重新規劃隧道路線。因此，我們準備的成本，肖恩所說的確實反映了我們必須做些什麼來維持我們的一些客戶承諾，並繞道到我們支付運費的其他地方。

But effectively, I don't think the metrics are going to be affected that dramatically. We've pretty much moved everything off. So what you see is what you have now.

但實際上，我認為這些指標不會受到那麼大的影響。我們幾乎把所有東西都搬走了。所以你所看到的就是你現在所擁有的。

In terms of the network, yes, look, it was an interesting year. I started off in the second quarter. Really trying to focus on crew starts and looking at how our capacity was trends, how they're operating. And our focus was to basically take crew starts down in line with the service offering we had to make. And we started to do that.

就網路而言，是的，看，這是有趣的一年。我從第二季開始。真正努力關注船員的啟動情況，看看我們的產能趨勢如何，他們是如何運作的。我們的重點是基本上讓船員開始與我們必須提供的服務保持一致。我們開始這樣做。

And right up until -- and then we saw, again, as you reduce the crew starts as the train starts, your dwell goes up. So we made adjustments. And if you look in the middle of the year, going into that third quarter, the first set of hurricanes, we were running very well. And those -- so those fundamental principles are still there. You keep -- you look, there's pockets, weeks where we didn't have the disruption from the hurricanes that we're -- I'm very, very happy with the performance of the railroad overall outside of those things.

直到——然後我們再次看到，當你減少列車啟動時的乘務員數量時，你的停留時間就會上升。所以我們做出了調整。如果你看看今年年中，進入第三季度，第一輪颶風，我們運作得非常好。所以那些基本原則仍然存在。你看，有一些地方、幾週我們沒有受到颶風的干擾，我對除這些之外鐵路的整體表現非常非常滿意。

Going forward, yes, our head count is stable. We have -- we do have more productivity improvements right in front of us once we get in a look, we just have three days of snow or two days of snow and record and all that once we get through this, we're back on track because going into the Christmas shutdown, we're in very good shape.

展望未來，是的，我們的員工數量是穩定的。一旦我們看到，我們確實有更多的生產力改進就擺在我們面前，我們只有三天的雪或兩天的雪並記錄，一旦我們度過了這一切，我們就會重新開始因為進入聖誕節停工期，我們的狀態非常好。

And we really really took action working with our customers as they reduced their needs to really, really reduce more starts. And that's -- our focus is, first of all, is to run a safe railroad that employees know and come prepared for work and are able to do it.

我們確實採取了與客戶合作的行動，因為他們減少了需求，從而真正減少了更多的啟動。首先，我們的重點是運營一條安全的鐵路，讓員工了解並為工作做好準備並有能力做到這一點。

Number two, service those customers. But productivity is extremely important for us because we've made some great steps. We fought off the battles that we've had with these storms. And then the team is very entrenched in the principles that got us to where we were before the storm started. So I'm very -- I'm happy with the network.

第二，為這些客戶提供服務。但生產力對我們來說極為重要，因為我們已經取得了一些偉大的進步。我們戰勝了與這些風暴的戰鬥。然後團隊非常堅定地遵循這些原則，這些原則使我們達到了風暴開始之前的水平。所以我對這個網路非常滿意。

We've got work to do with all the different stuff going on right now, like we always will. But overall, fundamentally, we're on the right track.

我們有工作要做，處理現在發生的所有不同的事情，就像我們一如既往的那樣。但總體而言，從根本上來說，我們走在正確的軌道上。

Jon Chappell with Evercore ISI.

喬恩·查佩爾 (Jon Chappell) 與 Evercore ISI 合作。

Sean, hate to get into Manisha on certain model line items. You said cost per employee will be aligned with labor inflation. So I assume you mean like 4-ish percent. That said, you have a really, really tough comp in 1Q, '24 was up 7% and then a super easy comp in 4Q '24, was down 4% because of the incentive comp. So -- do we think about it as 4% on average, but try to get the quarterly cadence more aligned with typically kind of lower cost per employee in the first quarter and peaking in the fourth quarter due to the annual bonuses incentive comp?

Sean，討厭在某些型號訂單項目上進入 Manisha。您說每位員工的成本將與勞動力通膨保持一致。所以我猜你的意思是大約百分之四左右。也就是說，你在 24 年第一季的競爭非常非常艱難，成長了 7%，然後在 24 年第四季，由於激勵競爭，競爭非常簡單，下降了 4%。那麼，我們是否將其視為平均 4%，但嘗試讓季度節奏與第一季度每位員工的典型較低成本更加一致，並由於年度獎金激勵補償而在第四季度達到頂峰？

Yes, Jon. So here's how I think about it. I would take the Q4 number. I would add back the incentive comp adjustment. So that's about $1,500 an employee and that's a pretty good run rate for the first half of the year.

是的，喬恩。這就是我的想法。我會選擇 Q4 號碼。我會加回激勵補償調整。因此，每位員工的工資約為 1,500 美元，這對於今年上半年來說是一個相當不錯的運行率。

We may actually come in a little bit better than that in the first half of the year due to 2 reasons. One, looking very closely at over time, trying to reduce that and other unproductive costs. But also it looks like likely lower health and welfare costs that kick in here this year. Then as we get to the second half, take that first half run rate at [4.4%] to that, which is what I would expect for second half wage inflation. That should give you a good way to model it for the full year.

由於兩個原因，我們實際上可能比上半年好一點。一是隨著時間的推移密切關注，試圖減少這種成本和其他非生產性成本。但今年的健康和福利成本似乎可能會降低。然後，當我們進入下半年時，將上半年的運行率設為[4.4%]，這就是我對下半年薪資通膨的預期。這應該為您提供了一個為全年建模的好方法。

And your next question comes from the line of Ken Hoexter with Bank of America.

您的下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Ken Hoexter。

Two quick ones to clarify and then my question. I guess clarifying, Kevin, did you say coal at these levels, the [191], is that down 3% sequentially -- is that based on these levels? Or does it go lower if rates hold at these low levels? And then you mentioned some outages, some mine outages. Does that include the recent fire at one of your your minds?

兩個快速的澄清，然後是我的問題。我想澄清一下，凱文，你是否說過煤炭在這些水平上，[191]，是否連續下降了 3%——這是基於這些水平嗎？或者如果利率維持在如此低的水平，利率會更低嗎？然後你提到了一些停電，一些礦井停電。這是否包括最近你心中的一團火？

I presume that's what you meant when you said some mine outages. And then I guess, Sean, my big question is -- you kind of talked mid-single-digit growth, I guess, that would have been about $260 million add to EBIT, offset by about $300 million discrete item. So I just want to understand, are you sending the -- I just want to understand your messaging is it that the base case EBIT is down [$50 million] from the $5.35 billion that you've got for the target? I'm just trying to put together all the numbers you're throwing out there?

我想這就是您所說的一些礦井停電時的意思。然後我想，肖恩，我的大問題是——你談到了中等個位數的增長，我想，這將導致息稅前利潤增加約2.6 億美元，並被約3 億美元的離散項目所抵消。所以我只是想了解，您是否發送了 - 我只是想了解您的訊息是，基本情況息稅前利潤比您為目標設定的 53.5 億美元下降了 [5000 萬美元]？我只是想把你拋出的所有數字放在一起？

All right. Well, that was a lot. So let's start with the coal question. Yes, at current levels, that's where we see that was the guidance at current levels, what we see here. Hopefully, we'll see some as we get in the second and third quarter, more kind of the cost curves of our producers and global producers, quite frankly, we think it's probably under market right now, and that should hopefully bounce out above [200] as we get in the back half of the year.

好的。嗯，已經很多了。讓我們從煤炭問題開始。是的，在當前水平上，這就是我們看到的當前水平的指導，我們在這裡看到的。希望我們能在第二季和第三季看到一些更多的生產商和全球生產商的成本曲線，坦白說，我們認為它現在可能處於市場之下，並且有望反彈至以上[ 200]正如我們在今年下半年得到的那樣。

We'll see if that happens. And then the other question was the outage that you mentioned, yes, that's related to the recent one. We expect that to come back online in the second half of this year. I will say that -- the team is doing a great job of looking for other sources, and we do expect some of that to be made up at other mine locations to basically backfill the demand that still remains out there.

我們將看看是否會發生這種情況。然後另一個問題是你提到的停電，是的，這與最近的停電有關。我們預計該功能將在今年下半年恢復上線。我要說的是，該團隊在尋找其他資源方面做得很好，我們確實預計其中一些資源將在其他礦場得到彌補，以基本上滿足仍然存在的需求。

So we don't expect that to be a full loss. We'll find other opportunities to offset hopefully a lot of that more than half of that headwind that we'll see over to Sean.

因此，我們預計這不會是全部損失。我們會找到其他機會來抵消我們將看到肖恩帶來的一半以上的逆風。

Yes, Ken. So I mean your math is awfully precise. It's too early in the year to kind of give you that close of a range. But I think generally speaking, kind of the way you're looking at it, if you take the adjusted number for 2024, the non-GAAP adjusted number, you subtract the $350 million and then look at sort of mid-single digit-ish growth -- and I would say there are some things this year that could make it a little bit worse than that. And that's really the coal challenges as well as the incentive comp piece that probably adds another $30 million to $40 million of expense this year versus 2024.

是的，肯。所以我的意思是你的數學非常精確。現在給你這麼接近的範圍還為時過早。但我認為一般來說，就像你看待它的方式一樣，如果你採用 2024 年調整後的數字，即非 GAAP 調整後的數字，你減去 3.5 億美元，然後看一下中等個位數的數字成長－我想說，今年有些事情可能會讓情況變得更糟。這其實是煤炭挑戰以及激勵補償部分，與 2024 年相比，今年的支出可能會再增加 3,000 萬至 4,000 萬美元。

But -- there's a lot of other variables in there as well. We're very, very focused on the cost side to try to make sure we can manage through the first half of this year as we've got some some big headwinds to manage with. And so there's levers that we can pull, but there's obviously things that we're watching in the economy as well. So there's a range of outcomes that we could model from here. And as we go through the year, we'll get much more line of sight into exactly where that lands and can give you a little bit more color there.

但是——其中還有很多其他變數。我們非常非常關注成本方面，以確保我們能夠度過今年上半年，因為我們需要應對一些巨大的阻力。因此，我們可以利用一些槓桿，但顯然我們也在經濟中關註一些事情。因此，我們可以從這裡模擬一系列結果。當我們度過這一年時，我們將獲得更多的視線來準確了解它的著陸位置，並可以為您提供更多的色彩。

David Vernon with Bernstein.

大衛佛農和伯恩斯坦。

So we've probably kicked this a couple of times. But Kevin, is there any way you can help us understand those [$300 million], how much of that is volume? How much of that is price? Kind of what you're making in there roughly, the slices of pizza and a slice pie kind of thing. And then if you think about the outlook as we look into merchandise intermodal it feels like the Q4 numbers ended a little bit below the full year numbers.

所以我們可能已經踢過幾次了。但是凱文，你有什麼辦法可以幫助我們理解這些[3億美元]，其中有多少是交易量？其中價格是多少？大概就是你在那裡做的東西，披薩片和派之類的東西。然後，如果您在研究商品多式聯運時考慮前景，那麼感覺第四季度的數字略低於全年數字。

I'm just wondering if if you're also seeing some volume pressure because some of the Blue Ridge outage and maybe even some volume because of the service issues that might be happening with the Howard Street tunnels. Should we be thinking that there's some additional sort of volume headwinds building into 2025 here with related to stuff? Is it -- or is it just purely just operating cost?

我只是想知道您是否也看到了一些容量壓力，因為藍嶺的一些停電，甚至可能因為霍華德街隧道可能發生的服務問題而帶來一些容量壓力。我們是否應該考慮到 2025 年還會出現一些與其他相關的額外數量阻力？是——還是純粹只是營運成本？

Let me handle the first part. That was quite a bit again. The $300 million that Sean highlighted in his opening comments was related to the met coal price. And then obviously, the fuel surcharge was -- so those 2 items, not a volume comment in that market. And then I'll hand it over to Sean.

讓我來處理第一部分。那又是相當多了。肖恩在開場白中強調的 3 億美元與冶金煤炭價格有關。顯然，燃油附加費是——所以這兩個項目，而不是該市場的批量評論。然後我會把它交給肖恩。

Yes. And I think, David, what you're pointing to in terms of the momentum there in Q4, you got to remember, hurricanes were a pretty big impact. We talked about a $50 million impact with roughly $30 million of that being revenue. The revenue number was probably even a little bit higher than that when all was said and done. So that was a big piece of it.

是的。我認為，大衛，你所指的第四季的勢頭，你必須記住，颶風的影響相當大。我們談到了 5000 萬美元的影響，其中大約 3000 萬美元是收入。收入數字可能比歸根究底還要高一點點。所以這是其中的很大一部分。

I don't -- I mean, Mike and Kevin, you correct me if I'm wrong, but I don't think we're anticipating any volume disruption from the shutdown of the Howard Street Tunnel. In fact, the work that we're doing and the costs that we're adding are to preserve that volume and allow us as we clear up that pinch point in our network to actually be able to identify and pursue some growth opportunities that Kevin and the team are looking at.

我不——我的意思是，邁克和凱文，如果我錯了，請糾正我，但我認為我們預計霍華德街隧道的關閉不會造成任何交通量中斷。事實上，我們正​​在做的工作和我們增加的成本是為了保持這個數量，並讓我們在清理網路中的關鍵點時能夠真正能夠識別和追求凱文和團隊正在關注。

Yes. I think with the Blue Ridge, they're small, but immaterial, maybe some volume that would move off temporarily, just given the additional length of haul, but the majority of it, given the great work by the team and Mike's team and [Carrie] and others to come up with a solution really preserve that largely for us. .

是的。我認為對於藍嶺來說，它們很小，但並不重要，也許一些體積會暫時移動，只是考慮到額外的運輸長度，但考慮到團隊和邁克團隊的出色工作和[ Carrie] 和其他人提出的解決方案確實在很大程度上為我們保留了這一點。。

Bascome Majors with Susquehanna.

與薩斯奎哈納隊的巴斯科姆專業。

Can you talk a little bit about the regulatory opportunity under the new regime, either at the FRA and the STB? And anything that has been held up or slow play that could generate needle-moving productivity for CSX in 2025 or '26. .

您能否談談新制度下的監管機會，無論是在 FRA 還是 STB？任何被擱置或緩慢進行的事情都可能在 2025 年或 26 年為 CSX 帶來巨大的生產力。。

Yes, Bascome, this is Joe. I'll take that one. I think First of all, you already saw some activity on the waivers that have been long-standing that's important. We need to -- we need to get more technology on the inspection side into this industry, and we need to work with our union partners to make that happen, but there's a lot we can do in advanced efficiency and safety while still having plenty of work for our teams to do -- that's a big one. I think if you look at, obviously, Patrick Folks being named STB Chair, we know Patrick well, very much involved and engaged in our industry, along with the other board members.

是的，巴斯科姆，這是喬。我會接受那個。我認為首先，您已經看到了一些長期存在的豁免活動，這很重要。我們需要——我們需要將更多的檢測技術引入這個行業，我們需要與我們的工會夥伴合作來實現這一目標，但我們在提高效率和安全性方面可以做很多事情，同時仍然擁有大量的為我們的團隊所做的工作——這是一件大事。我想，如果你看看帕特里克福克斯 (Patrick Folks) 被任命為 STB 主席，你會發現我們很了解帕特里克，他與其他董事會成員一起積極參與我們的行業。

So looking forward to that, working with the STB that's really focused on the data and what we can do to grow this business in a positive way.

因此，我們期待與真正專注於數據的 STB 合作，以及我們可以採取哪些措施以積極的方式發展這項業務。

The FRA, I mean, David think running that CSX [indiscernible] did before my time, but so obviously the business and some of the stress points that the railroads faced technology and and also investment in capital and that kind of thing. So we're feeling really good about a supportive environment for the industry when it comes to safety and technology and working together to advance. I mean I think everyone is aligned. The best thing we can do is work together collectively to get more volume on the railroads. It's better for safety, better for efficiency of our economy.

我的意思是，大衛認為 FRA 的運行 CSX [音頻不清晰] 在我之前就已經做到了，但很明顯，鐵路面臨著技術和資本投資等方面的業務和一些壓力點。因此，在安全和技術方面以及共同進步方面，我們對產業的支援環境感到非常滿意。我的意思是我認為每個人都是一致的。我們能做的最好的事情就是共同努力，提高鐵路的運量。這更有利於安全，也更有利於我們的經濟效率。

It takes trucks off the road. It takes -- reduces taxpayer funding for the roads in a little bit and it also is more efficient and better for the environment. So all -- I think the people that we're working with now understand all that. And so I would say that certainly the next several years look very supportive for us working together to make more advancements than we made in the last quarter.

它使卡車離開道路。它需要一點點減少納稅人對道路的資助，而且效率更高，對環境也更好。所以，我認為現在與我們一起工作的人都明白這一切。因此，我想說，未來幾年肯定會非常有利於我們共同努力，取得比上個季度更多的進步。

Ravi Shanker with Morgan Stanley.

拉維·尚克（Ravi Shanker）與摩根士丹利。

One. So a couple of years of a meaningful amount of discrete items now, and I recognize that a lot of these things are either issues outside of your control or investments in the future. But what are your conversations with customers like on some of these bottlenecks and the understanding -- is there a risk of share shift as a result of this? Or kind of how do you think this plays out in the coming years?

一。因此，現在已經有幾年大量的離散項目，我認識到其中很多事情要么是您無法控制的問題，要么是未來的投資。但是，您與客戶就其中一些瓶頸進行了哪些對話以及理解——是否因此存在份額轉移的風險？或者您認為這在未來幾年會如何發展？

Yes. I think from our customer discussions, there's a lot of excitement. You heard the service is not really going to be impacted. There's additional costs that we have to absorb to maintain the service and maintain the level of service that we have provided, but these are significant investments that are going to allow them to reach new markets that they haven't had the opportunity to move on, on the CSX network. So I think there's a lot of excitement for our customers to see that we're willing to invest in our network, quite frankly.

是的。我認為從我們的客戶討論來看，大家都非常興奮。您聽說該服務不會真正受到影響。為了維持服務和維持我們提供的服務水平，我們必須承擔額外的成本，但這些都是重大投資，將使他們能夠進入他們沒有機會繼續前進的新市場，在 CSX 網路上。因此，坦白說，我認為我們的客戶看到我們願意投資我們的網路會感到非常興奮。

And that always hasn't been the case. So -- we continue to invest in the core infrastructure and best there, but we're actually extending our network and creating single-line service that we haven't had the opportunity to deliver in the past.

但事實並非如此。因此，我們繼續投資於核心基礎設施，但我們實際上正在擴展我們的網路並創建我們過去沒有機會提供的單線服務。

So there's a lot of excitement, and I know our teams are excited to kind of deliver on that growth.

所以大家都很興奮，我知道我們的團隊很高興能夠實現這種成長。

Yes, this is Joe. Let me add real quickly to that. I mean, I'm really proud of the team, both our operating and marketing sales teams have worked together. I mean, if you look at the third and fourth quarter as we had pretty impactful hurricanes and some other things. But if you look at the data from our customers, actually, our Net Promoter Scores in the third quarter and fourth quarter were the consecutively the best we've ever had.

是的，這是喬。讓我快速補充一下。我的意思是，我真的為這個團隊感到自豪，我們的營運和行銷團隊都在一起工作。我的意思是，如果你看看第三和第四季度，我們經歷了相當有影響力的颶風和其他一些事情。但如果你看一下我們客戶的數據，實際上，我們第三季和第四季的淨推薦值連續是有史以來最好的。

And that -- even though we had some disruptions and we had issues and you see it in some of the data, the work we're doing to put the customer first, along with safety, of course, and to really work on finding solutions, even if we have issues and goes a long way to them seeing the commitment we have. And that's really important for long-term growth that the customers see that we're committed to when we have disruptions or have issues that we're proactively communicating with them.

即使我們遇到了一些中斷，也遇到了問題，你可以在一些數據中看到，我們正在做的工作是把客戶放在第一位，當然還有安全，並真正致力於尋找解決方案，即使我們遇到問題，並且要讓他們看到我們的承諾還有很長的路要走。這對於長期成長非常重要，當我們遇到中斷或遇到我們主動與他們溝通的問題時，客戶會看到我們致力於解決的問題。

We're working to find solutions and that makes them feel a lot better about investing back into rail and looking for longer-term growth, and we're seeing that play out. So yes, we've had a lot of discrete items, as you mentioned. I mean for a couple of years now, we're looking forward to stop talking about fuel surcharge and met coal prices year-over-year or quarter-over-quarter, but we're continuing to see volume growth. And that's consistent exactly with what we're hearing from our customers. Our service levels are leading to volume growth that volume growth has strong pricing with it, and we're continuing to get efficiency gains.

我們正在努力尋找解決方案，這讓他們對重新投資鐵路並尋求長期成長感覺更好，我們正在看到這種情況的發生。所以，是的，正如您所提到的，我們有很多離散的項目。我的意思是，幾年來，我們期待停止談論燃油附加費和煤炭價格同比或季度環比，但我們繼續看到銷量成長。這與我們從客戶那裡聽到的完全一致。我們的服務水準正在導致銷售成長，銷售成長會帶來強勁的定價，我們正在繼續提高效率。

We get some of this noise out of the system, I think you'll see the power of this network.

我們從系統中消除了一些噪音，我想您會看到這個網路的力量。

Jordan Alliger with Goldman Sachs.

喬丹·阿利格與高盛。

I just wanted to come back to the EBIT growth question again. We had suggested taking that $350 million net headwind off of the adjusted 2024 and growing by mid-single digit, which sort of is the low end of the mid- to high single digit that you talked about at your Investor Day. But off that base, like I'm just curious like what gets it to the to the upper end of that mid- to high single digit. Is it more of a volume issue? Is it a productivity issue?

我只是想再次回到息稅前利潤成長問題。我們曾建議消除調整後的 2024 年 3.5 億美元的淨逆風，並以中個位數增長，這就是您在投資者日談到的中高個位數的低端。但在這個基礎上，我只是好奇是什麼讓它達到中高個位數的上端。是不是更多的是音量問題？是生產力問題嗎？

Like just sort of curious how you think about framing the range?

就像有點好奇你如何考慮建造範圍？

Yes. Thanks for the question, Jordan. I think assuming commodity prices are not the driver good or bad versus where they are right now, what makes the year a little bit better. I think it's us continuing to push to drive even more efficiency across all of the groups between operations and G&A. We were able to hold purchase services and other costs essentially flat on a core basis last year.

是的。謝謝你的提問，喬丹。我認為，假設大宗商品價格與目前的情況相比不是好壞的驅動因素，那麼今年會好一點。我認為我們正在繼續努力提高營運和一般管理部門之間的所有部門的效率。去年，我們能夠在核心基礎上保持採購服務和其他成本基本上持平。

That takes a lot of work when you've got volume growth and you've got inflation up against you. So keeping a very, very close eye on those since we've got initiatives built into the plan, but we're sitting down every day, looking at ways that we can continue to sort of find opportunity, negotiate new agreements that help us on the purchased service side to reduce cost.

當銷量成長且通膨不利時，這需要做大量工作。因此，我們要非常非常密切地關注這些問題，因為我們已經在計劃中納入了一些舉措，但我們每天都在坐下來，尋找可以繼續尋找機會的方法，談判新的協議，以幫助我們購買服務方以降低成本。

So that's one. And then the other I would say is, on the volume side, we're certainly looking at the economy, but also the momentum on the trucking side, as Kevin talked about, do we start to see that turn and these industrial development opportunities are coming online and the ramp in those volumes, the customer wins that we've got. We've got a number of those in the pipeline for this year. Our hit rates higher, that obviously helps us grow operating income as well.

這就是其中之一。然後我要說的另一個問題是，在數量方面，我們當然會關注經濟，但也會關注卡車運輸方面的勢頭，正如凱文所說，我們是否開始看到這種轉變，這些工業發展機會是隨著上線和銷售量的增加，客戶贏得了我們的勝利。今年我們已經準備了很多這樣的計畫。我們的命中率更高，這顯然也有助於我們增加營業收入。

Walter Spracklin with RBC Capital Markets.

沃爾特·斯普拉克林 (Walter Spracklin) 與加拿大皇家銀行資本市場 (RBC Capital Markets)。

So I just want to come back to the Investor Day pre-year for compound annual growth rate targets that you gave, particularly on earnings per share. So you gave us high single digit to low double digit. If we look at that and just take the midpoint at 10% of 2024, it gets us to [$243 million] for 2027, which is where consensus was.

因此，我只想回到去年的投資者日，了解您給出的複合年增長率目標，特別是每股收益。所以你給了我們高個位數到低兩位數。如果我們看一下這一點，並僅取 2024 年 10% 的中點，那麼我們在 2027 年的收入將達到 [2.43 億美元]，這也是共識所在。

My question, I guess, is with the dip down now in 2025, it would imply you're going to have to run at a low teen for '26 and '27 to get back to that [$243 million]. And my question is, is that is the Investor Day target of [$243 million] still relevant, given where we are in -- where we're kind of stepping down in 2025, therefore, have that low teen growth rate in '26 and '27.

我想，我的問題是，隨著 2025 年的下降，這意味著你將不得不在 26 年和 27 年以較低的青少年水平運行才能回到那個水平[2.43 億美元]。我的問題是，考慮到我們所處的位置（我們將在 2025 年退出），投資者日目標 [2.43 億美元]仍然具有相關性，因此，26 年和 2025 年青少年增長率較低'27。

Or do we say, no, the world's changed a little bit since Investor Day and we should really model off a lower growth rate than that?

或者我們應該說，不，自投資者日以來世界發生了一些變化，我們真的應該模擬比這更低的成長率嗎？

Yes, Walter, I appreciate the question. But as I said in the script, no, we're staying with the guidance. And so the numbers that you walked through, those are reasonable, high single-digit to double-digit EPS growth. A couple of things I would just clarify. One is the $10 million a month of network disruption costs that we have this year, that's a headwind to this year, but that completely reverses in 2026 in terms into a net benefit for us as we grow volume and drive efficiency when all the construction is done.

是的，沃爾特，我很欣賞這個問題。但正如我在劇本中所說，不，我們將遵循指導方針。因此，您看到的數字是合理的，高個位數到兩位數的每股盈餘成長。我想澄清一些事情。其中之一是我們今年每月1000 萬美元的網路中斷成本，這對今年來說是一個阻力，但到2026 年，隨著所有建設都完成後，我們會增加數量並提高效率，這將完全逆轉為我們的淨收益。

And then just the other sort of modeling point I would put out there is that the 3-year guidance assumes that over that 3-year period, we have stable commodity prices, both export coal and fuel.

然後，我要提出的另一個建模點是，三年指導假設在這三年期間，我們的大宗商品價格（包括出口煤炭和燃料）保持穩定。

So we're at a lower point today on both of those than we were on average in 2024. Our hypothesis, our modeling framework is that by 2027, we're kind of back to where we were on average in 2024 Obviously, if that doesn't happen and met coal stays below [200], it's going to be tough to hit the numbers. But adjusting for that, we still feel very good about our 3-year guidance.

因此，今天這兩個指標的水準都低於 2024 年的平均值。我們的假設，我們的建模框架是，到2027 年，我們將回到2024 年的平均水平。的平均水平。但調整後，我們仍然對我們的三年指導感到非常滿意。

Daniel Imbro with Stephens.

丹尼爾·因布羅和史蒂芬斯。

Kevin, maybe one more on the volume outlook. I guess there's a lot of headwinds out of your control, but I can ask one on the auto side. We've navigated elevated inventories for a few quarters. here and it's weighing on autos and metals. I guess any updates on when your customers are expecting that production to actually return to growth.

凱文，也許再談談銷售前景。我猜有很多你無法控制的阻力，但我可以問一下汽車方面的問題。幾個季度以來，我們的庫存一直處於上升狀態。在這裡，它對汽車和金屬造成壓力。我想您的客戶預計產量何時真正恢復成長的任何更新。

This year, inventory is rationing down out there in the field? Just what are you hearing you're seeing from your field as you think about that segment hopefully returning to growth at some point in 2025?

今年，外地庫存是配給的嗎？當您認為該細分市場預計在 2025 年某個時候恢復成長時，您從您的領域中聽到了什麼？

Maybe I'll take it and give Joe, he's obviously an expert in it as well. Look, we have seen a slower start to the year. That's shown up in everybody's carloads it's out there. Certainly, the weather and loading autos and this kind of weather is a challenge as well. So that hasn't helped the volumes that we've seen here.

也許我會把它交給喬，他顯然也是這方面的專家。看，我們看到今年開局較慢。每個人的車上都有它的身影。當然，天氣和裝載汽車這種天氣也是一個挑戰。因此，這對我們在這裡看到的銷售沒有幫助。

We do expect them to improve from where we are at the levels that we've seen here over the last few weeks. But it is a I think it's an open question of where rates go and affordability and those things. I don't -- I wouldn't -- I don't sit here and say there's a lot of optimism here. I don't think there's a lot of pessimism that is going to be significantly worse as well. So it feels like more of the same, basically, but we'll see how it plays out the rest of the year.

我們確實希望他們能夠比過去幾週看到的水平有所提高。但我認為這是一個懸而未決的問題，即利率走向和承受能力等等。我不會——我不會——我不會坐在這裡說這裡有很多樂觀情緒。我認為悲觀情緒不會變得更嚴重。所以基本上感覺差不多，但我們會看看今年剩餘時間的情況如何。

Yes. Thanks, Kevin. And well said, I mean you think about it right now, I think the estimates are for sales this year to be in the low $16 million range and the production to be in the mid-15s so that maybe adjust some inventory or just takes into account everything that happens with the imports and everything. But before the pandemic, those sales SARs were $17 million plus for a number of years in a row and production was pretty close to that. And so there's a lot of potential there.

是的。謝謝，凱文。說得好，我的意思是你現在想一想，我認為今年的銷售額預計將在 1600 萬美元左右，產量將在 15 年代中期，這樣可能會調整一些庫存，或者只考慮考慮進口所發生的一切。但在大流行之前，這些銷售額連續多年超過 1700 萬美元，產量也非常接近這個數字。所以那裡有很大的潛力。

We just have to see it realized and that means interest rates that we've got to come down and it has to be a balance between all those things.

我們只需要看到它實現，這意味著我們必須降低利率，並且必須在所有這些事情之間取得平衡。

So you have an administration now that is very focused on autos and U.S. manufacturing and interest rates. So let's see how that plays out. Probably is a big issue for '25, but what could it look like for '26 and '27 is a big opportunity?.

因此，現在的政府非常關注汽車、美國製造業和利率。那麼讓我們看看結果如何。對於 '25 來說可能是一個大問題，但是對於 '26 和 '27 來說會是什麼樣子是一個很大的機會呢？

And your final question comes from the line of Jeff Kauffman with Vertical Research Partners.

你的最後一個問題來自垂直研究夥伴的傑夫‧考夫曼（Jeff Kauffman）。

I'm going to go back and beat the dead horse a little bit here, but from a slightly different angle. You've talked a lot about the cost associated with Howard Street and Blue Ridge weighing on this year, and that cost is coming in a bunch of different areas. The outer route miles and the fuel burn the extra crew, the asset-related costs, extra locomotive extra cars -- can we talk about, I guess, kind of the same way once Blue Ridge is fixed once Howard Street is done, can we try and quantify the savings on the other side.

我要回過頭來，從一個稍微不同的角度，稍微打敗一下死馬。您已經談論了很多與今年霍華德街和藍嶺相關的成本，而這些成本來自許多不同的領域。外線里程和燃料消耗了額外的人員、資產相關成本、額外的機車額外的車輛——我想，一旦藍嶺修好，霍華德街完工，我們可以用同樣的方式談論嗎？

So for instance, you're going to have double stack where you didn't before. You should be able to drive more cars through there with fewer trains. Fewer assets, you should get to go out there and play for a business that you weren't really eligible to do before. As I look at the net unwind of these projects and the opportunity for '26, can you do anything to quantify that benefit the same way you quantified the cost of '25?

例如，您將擁有以前沒有的雙堆疊。您應該能夠用更少的火車駕駛更多的汽車通過那裡。資產較少，你應該出去從事一項你以前沒有資格從事的業務。當我看到這些項目的淨釋放和 26 年的機會時，您是否可以採取任何措施來量化該收益，就像量化 25 年的成本一樣？

Yes, Jeff, I appreciate the question. And you're right. Obviously, as we get past this, it's going to turn into a very nice positive for us. If we sort of look at the cost savings opportunity and then combine that with the growth opportunity that's out there taking a kind of a midpoint of what we think that revenue opportunity is. I would say, within a couple of years, we will have fully recovered that $100 million of, call it, roughly $100 million of operating expense we're going to take on this year.

是的，傑夫，我很欣賞這個問題。你是對的。顯然，當我們克服這個困難時，這將對我們產生非常好的正面影響。如果我們看看節省成本的機會，然後將其與現有的成長機會結合起來，那就是我們認為的收入機會的中點。我想說，幾年之內，我們將完全收回今年我們將承擔的大約 1 億美元的營運費用，稱之為 1 億美元。

So -- and that's just the initial growth opportunity. There's obviously more capacity that we're adding beyond that. So to my earlier point, it does turn into a nice positive for us over the 3-year period.

所以——這只是最初的成長機會。除此之外，我們顯然還增加了更多的容量。因此，就我先前的觀點而言，這確實在三年期間對我們產生了正面的影響。

And ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's call, and we thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.

女士們、先生們，今天的電話會議到此結束，我們感謝你們的參與。您現在可以斷開連線。