辛辛納提金融 (CINF) 2026 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and thank you all for joining us for this Cincinnati Financial Corporation first-quarter 2026 earnings conference call. (Operator Instructions) Today's session is also being recorded.

各位女士、先生，大家好，感謝各位參加辛辛那提金融公司（Cincinnati Financial Corporation）2026 年第一季財報電話會議。（接線員指示）今天的會議也將進行錄音。

It is now my pleasure to turn the floor over to Investor Relations Officer, Mr. Dennis McDaniel. Welcome, Dennis.

現在我很榮幸把會議交給投資人關係主管 Dennis McDaniel 先生。歡迎你，Dennis。

Hello. This is Dennis McDaniel at Cincinnati Financial. Thank you for joining us for our first-quarter 2026 earnings conference call. Late yesterday, we issued a news release on our results along with our supplemental financial package, including our quarter-end investment portfolio. To find copies of any of these documents, please visit our investor website, investors.cinfin.com.

大家好。我是辛辛那提金融的 Dennis McDaniel。感謝各位參加我們 2026 年第一季財報電話會議。昨晚稍晚，我們已就本季業績發布新聞稿，並提供補充財務資料包，其中包含季末投資組合明細。如需取得上述任何文件的副本，請造訪我們的投資人網站 investors.cinfin.com。

The shortest route to the information is the Quarterly Results section near the middle of the Investor Overview page.

取得相關資訊最便捷的方式，是前往投資人概覽頁面中段附近的「季度業績（Quarterly Results）」區塊。

On this call, you'll first hear from President and Chief Executive Officer, Steve Spray; and then from Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Mike Sewell. After their prepared remarks, investors participating on the call may ask questions.

在本次電話會議中，您將先聽到總裁暨執行長 Steve Spray 的發言，接著是執行副總裁暨財務長 Mike Sewell。在他們的準備發言結束後，參與電話會議的投資人可提出問題。

At that time, some responses may be made by others in the room with us, including Executive Chairman, Steve Johnston; Chief Investment Officer, Steve Soloria; and Cincinnati Insurances' Chief Claims Officer, Marc Schambow; and Senior Vice President of Corporate Finance, Andy Schnell.

屆時，我們同場的其他同仁也可能回應部分問題，包括執行董事長 Steve Johnston、投資長 Steve Soloria、辛辛那提保險（Cincinnati Insurance）的理賠長 Marc Schambow，以及企業財務資深副總裁 Andy Schnell。

Please note that some of the matters to be discussed today are forward looking. These forward-looking statements involve certain risks and uncertainties. With respect to these risks and uncertainties, we direct your attention to our news release and to our various filings with the SEC. Also, a reconciliation of non-GAAP measures was provided with the news release. Statutory accounting data is prepared in accordance with statutory accounting rules and therefore, is not reconciled to GAAP.

請注意，今天將討論的部分事項屬於前瞻性陳述。這些前瞻性陳述涉及若干風險與不確定性。關於這些風險與不確定性，請參閱我們的新聞稿以及向美國證券交易委員會（SEC）提交的各項申報文件。此外，新聞稿中亦提供了非 GAAP 指標的調節表。法定會計資料係依據法定會計規則編製，因此不與 GAAP 進行調節。

Now I'll turn over the call to Steve.

現在我把電話會議交給 Steve。

Good morning, and thank you for joining us today to hear more about our results. Performance for the first quarter of the year was good and included several aspects that demonstrated the success of our proven strategy and our ability to execute it. Both our insurance and investment operations performed quite well.

各位早安，感謝各位今天加入我們，進一步了解我們的業績表現。今年第一季的表現良好，並包含多項面向，展現我們經驗證的策略成功，以及我們的執行能力。我們的保險與投資業務表現都相當出色。

Net income of $274 million for the first quarter of 2026 included recognition of $82 million on an after-tax basis for the decrease in fair value of equity securities still held. Non-GAAP operating income was strong, $330 million for the quarter, compared with an operating loss of $37 million a year ago.

2026 年第一季淨利為 2.74 億美元，其中包含對仍持有之權益證券公允價值下跌所認列的 8,200 萬美元（稅後）。非 GAAP 營運利益表現強勁，本季為 3.30 億美元，相較去年同期營運虧損 3,700 萬美元。

The 95.6% first-quarter 2026 property casualty combined ratio improved by 17.7 percentage points compared with first quarter last year, including a decrease of 14.2 points for catastrophe losses. We had an excellent 87.5% accident year 2026 combined ratio before catastrophe losses for the first quarter.

2026 年第一季財產意外險綜合比率為 95.6%，較去年第一季改善 17.7 個百分點，其中巨災損失降低貢獻 14.2 個百分點。第一季在扣除巨災損失前，2026 事故年度（accident year）綜合比率為優異的 87.5%。

Turning to premium growth, our consolidated property casualty net written premiums grew 7% for the quarter, including a favorable 2% effect from net reinstatement premiums recorded in first-quarter 2025. Our strong financial position and sophisticated pricing and segmentation models allowed us to benefit from market disruption over the past few years. We stayed the course, providing a stable market for our agents, in turn growing at an accelerated pace. In fact, in just the last seven years, we've doubled the size of our consolidated property casualty net written premiums.

就保費成長而言，我們合併財產意外險淨簽單保費本季成長 7%，其中包含 2025 年第一季認列之淨復效保費（net reinstatement premiums）帶來的 2% 有利影響。我們強健的財務狀況，以及成熟的定價與分群模型，使我們得以受惠於過去幾年的市場動盪。我們堅持既定方向，為代理人提供穩定的市場，進而帶動更快的成長。事實上，僅在過去七年內，我們的合併財產意外險淨簽單保費規模已翻倍。

As those market challenges shift, growth is slowing as our underwriters continue to emphasize pricing and risk segmentation on a policy-by-policy basis in their underwriting decisions. Estimated average renewal price increases for most lines of business during the first quarter were lower than the fourth quarter of 2025, but still at levels we believe were healthy.

隨著市場挑戰轉變，在核保人持續於核保決策中逐張保單強調定價與風險分群的情況下，成長速度正在放緩。第一季多數業務線的估計平均續保調價幅度低於 2025 年第四季，但仍維持在我們認為健康的水準。

Commercial lines in total averaged increases near the high end of the low single-digit percentage range. And excess and surplus lines was again in the mid-single-digit range.

商業險整體平均調升幅度接近低個位數百分比區間的高端。而超額與剩餘險（excess and surplus lines）則再次維持在中個位數百分比區間。

Our Personal lines segment included personal auto and homeowner in the high-single-digit range. Our premium growth objectives are further supported by exceptional claims service and our deep relationships with best-in-class independent insurance agents.

個人險部門包含個人汽車險與住宅險，調升幅度落在高個位數百分比區間。我們的保費成長目標亦受到卓越理賠服務，以及與一流獨立保險代理人之深厚關係所支持。

Next, I'll comment on first-quarter performance by insurance segment compared with a year ago. As we pursue profitable premium growth, we believe pricing discipline in a challenging market contributed to strong profitability this quarter. Commercial lines grew net written premiums 3% with a 98.6% combined ratio that increased by 6.7 percentage points, including 6.0 points from higher catastrophe losses.

接下來，我將就各保險部門第一季表現與去年同期進行比較。在追求具獲利性的保費成長之際，我們認為在充滿挑戰的市場中維持定價紀律，是本季強勁獲利的重要因素。商業險淨簽單保費成長 3%，綜合比率為 98.6%，較去年上升 6.7 個百分點，其中 6.0 個百分點來自較高的巨災損失。

Personal lines grew net written premiums 15%, driven by Cincinnati Private Client. The combined ratio for personal lines was 96.8%, 54.5 percentage points better than last year, including a decrease of 41.9 points from lower catastrophe losses.

個人險淨簽單保費成長 15%，主要由 Cincinnati Private Client 帶動。個人險綜合比率為 96.8%，較去年改善 54.5 個百分點，其中巨災損失降低貢獻 41.9 個百分點。

Excess and surplus lines grew net written premiums 8% and produced a very good combined ratio of 89.3%. Cincinnati Re and Cincinnati Global each continue to contribute to profitability and reflect our efforts to diversify risk and further improve income stability. Cincinnati Re's first-quarter 2026 net written premiums decreased by less than 1%. Its combined ratio was an outstanding 79.7%. Cincinnati Global's combined ratio was also stellar at 78.7%, along with premium growth of 31% as it continues to benefit from product expansion in recent years.

超額與剩餘險淨簽單保費成長 8%，並繳出非常良好的 89.3% 綜合比率。Cincinnati Re 與 Cincinnati Global 皆持續對獲利有所貢獻，反映我們分散風險並進一步提升收益穩定性的努力。Cincinnati Re 2026 年第一季淨簽單保費下降幅度不到 1%。其綜合比率為出色的 79.7%。Cincinnati Global 的綜合比率同樣亮眼，達 78.7%；同時在近年產品擴張的帶動下，保費成長 31%。

Our life insurance subsidiary continued to deliver excellent results, including 24% net income growth. In addition, term life insurance earned premiums grew 7%.

我們的人壽保險子公司持續交出優異成果，包括淨利成長 24%。此外，定期壽險已賺保費（earned premiums）成長 7%。

I'll end my commentary with a summary of our primary measure of long-term financial performance, the value creation ratio. Our VCR was 0.2% for the first quarter of 2026. Net income before investment gains or losses for the quarter contributed 2.1%. Lower overall valuation of our investment portfolio and other items contributed negative 1.9%.

最後，我將以我們衡量長期財務表現的主要指標——價值創造比率（value creation ratio, VCR）——作為總結。我們 2026 年第一季的 VCR 為 0.2%。本季投資損益前淨利貢獻 2.1%。投資組合整體估值下降及其他項目合計貢獻為負 1.9%。

Now I'll turn it over to Chief Financial Officer, Mike Sewell, for additional insights regarding our financial performance.

現在我把電話會議交給財務長 Mike Sewell，請他就我們的財務表現提供更多觀點。

Thank you, Steve, and thanks to all of you for joining us today.

謝謝你，Steve，也感謝各位今天加入我們。

We reported growth of 14% in investment income in the first quarter of '26, driven by strong cash flow from insurance operations. Bond interest income grew 12% and net purchases of fixed-maturity securities totaled $624 million for the first three months of the year. The first-quarter pre-tax average yield of 5.02% for the fixed-maturity portfolio was up 10 basis points compared with last year. The average pretax yield for the total of purchased taxable and tax-exempt bonds during the first quarter of this year was 5.37%.

我們報告 26 年第一季投資收益成長 14%，主要受惠於保險營運帶來的強勁現金流。債券利息收入成長 12%，且今年前三個月固定到期證券（fixed-maturity securities）淨買入總額為 6.24 億美元。第一季固定到期投資組合稅前平均殖利率為 5.02%，較去年提高 10 個基點。今年第一季購入之應稅與免稅債券合計的平均稅前殖利率為 5.37%。

Dividend income was up 13%, including a $6 million special dividend received from one of our equity holdings. Net sales of equity securities totaled $54 million for the quarter.

股利收入成長13%，其中包括我們自其中一項股權投資持股所收取的600萬美元特別股利。本季股權證券淨銷售額合計為5,400萬美元。

Valuation changes in aggregate for the first quarter were unfavorable for both our equity portfolio and our bond portfolio. Before tax effects, the net loss was $71 million for the equity portfolio and $220 million for the bond portfolio.

第一季整體估值變動對我們的股權投資組合與債券投資組合皆不利。在稅前影響下，股權投資組合淨損失為7,100萬美元，債券投資組合淨損失為2.20億美元。

At the end of the first quarter, the total investment portfolio net appreciated value was approximately $7.7 billion. The equity portfolio was in a net gain position of $8.1 billion, while the fixed-maturity portfolio was in a net loss position of $401 million.

截至第一季末，整體投資組合的淨未實現增值約為77億美元。股權投資組合處於淨未實現收益81億美元的狀態，而固定到期投資組合則處於淨未實現損失4.01億美元的狀態。

Cash flow continued to benefit investment income growth. Cash flow from operating activities for the first three months of 2026 was $656 million, more than double a year ago.

現金流持續帶動投資收益成長。2026年前三個月營運活動現金流為6.56億美元，較去年同期增加逾一倍。

Regarding expense management, our first-quarter 2026 property casualty underwriting expense ratio decreased by 0.6 percentage points, reflecting a favorable 0.7 points from the effect of net reinstatement premiums in the first-quarter 2025.

在費用管理方面，我們2026年第一季的產險承保費用率下降0.6個百分點，反映出2025年第一季淨復效保費影響帶來的0.7個百分點有利因素。

Turning to loss reserves, our approach remains consistent. We aim for net amounts in the upper half of the actuarially estimated range of net loss and loss expense reserves. As we do each quarter, we considered new information, such as paid losses and case reserves. Then we updated estimated ultimate losses and loss expenses by accident year and line of business.

談到損失準備金，我們的方法仍維持一致。我們的目標是使淨額落在精算估計之淨損失及損失費用準備金區間的上半部。如同每一季一樣，我們納入新的資訊，例如已支付損失與個案準備金。接著，我們按事故年度與業務線更新估計的最終損失與損失費用。

For the first three months of 2026, our net addition to property casualty loss and loss expense reserves was $466 million, including $419 million for the IBNR portion.

2026年前三個月，我們對產險損失及損失費用準備金的淨增加額為4.66億美元，其中包括IBNR部分4.19億美元。

During the first quarter, we experienced $81 million of property casualty net favorable reserve development on prior accident years that benefited the combined ratio by 3.2-percentage-points. On an all-lines basis by accident year, net favorable reserve development for the first three months of 2026 included favorable $72 million for '25, favorable $25 million for '24, and an unfavorable $16 million in aggregate for accident years prior to '24.

第一季期間，我們在先前事故年度出現8,100萬美元的產險淨有利準備金發展，使綜合率改善3.2個百分點。以全險種並按事故年度計，2026年前三個月的淨有利準備金發展包括：對'25事故年度有利7,200萬美元、對'24事故年度有利2,500萬美元，以及對'24之前事故年度合計不利1,600萬美元。

I'll conclude my comments with first-quarter capital management highlights. We paid $133 million in dividends to shareholders. We repurchased approximately 1.1 million shares at an average price per share of $164.93. We believe both our financial flexibility and our financial strength are in great shape. [Parent] company cash and marketable securities at quarter-end was $5.6 billion.

我將以第一季資本管理重點作結。我們向股東支付股利1.33億美元。我們以每股平均164.93美元回購約110萬股。我們認為我們的財務彈性與財務實力都維持在非常良好的狀態。[Parent]公司於季末持有的現金及有價證券為56億美元。

Debt-to-total capital remained under 10%. And our quarter-end book value was $101.60 per share, with nearly $16 billion of GAAP consolidated shareholders' equity, providing plenty of capacity for the profitable growth of our insurance operations.

負債對總資本比率仍低於10%。此外，我們季末每股帳面價值為101.60美元，GAAP合併股東權益接近160億美元，為我們保險營運的獲利成長提供充足的承載能力。

Now, I'll turn the call back over to Steve.

現在，我把電話交回給Steve。

Thanks, Mike. I think this quarter's solid results demonstrate that we have the people and plans in place to keep building on our success regardless of market cycles and conditions. Our associates continue to answer the call for our agents and the communities they serve, developing deep relationships and informing smart underwriting decisions.

謝謝，Mike。我認為本季穩健的結果顯示，我們已具備人員與計畫，無論市場循環與環境如何，都能持續在既有成功基礎上再接再厲。我們的同仁持續回應代理人及其所服務社區的需求，建立深厚關係，並為明智的承保決策提供資訊。

Early in March, A.M. Best also expressed their confidence in our plans by affirming our A+ rating, citing our strong balance sheet and operating performance. If you'd like to hear more about how we'll continue to deliver value for policyholders, agents, associates, and shareholders, we invite you to join us for our Annual Meeting of Shareholders this Saturday, May 2, at the Cincinnati Art Museum. You're also welcome to listen to our webcast of the meeting, available at investors.cinfin.com.

3月初，A.M. Best也透過確認我們的A+評等表達對我們計畫的信心，並引用我們強健的資產負債表與營運表現。若您想進一步了解我們將如何持續為保戶、代理人、同仁與股東創造價值，誠摯邀請您於本週六5月2日參加在辛辛那提藝術博物館舉行的年度股東大會。您也可收聽我們的會議網路直播，網址為investors.cinfin.com。

As a reminder, with Mike and me today are Steve Johnston, Steve Soloria, Marc Schambow; and Andy Schnell. Jim, please open the call for questions.

提醒各位，今天與我和Mike一同出席的還有Steve Johnston、Steve Soloria、Marc Schambow，以及Andy Schnell。Jim，請開放提問。

(Operator Instructions) Michael Phillips, Oppenheimer.

(接線員指示) Michael Phillips，Oppenheimer。

I guess, Steve, I want to dive a little more into the renewal price change in commercial seemed to decelerate a little more than maybe we've heard from others, but it's obviously hard to really accurately say on that. I guess your high-end of low-single-digit, obviously, that's impacted by your commercial property and comp -- they're not a small piece of that segment. So maybe could you provide any comments on the pricing environment in your commercial casualty specifically, what that looks like today and maybe how that compares to what you see as loss trends in commercial casualty.

我想，Steve，我想更深入談一下商業險續保價格變動似乎比我們從其他人那裡聽到的還要更明顯地放緩一些，但當然要非常精準地判斷其實很難。我想你提到的「低個位數」區間上緣，顯然受到你們商業財產與工傷補償的影響——它們在該分部中占比不小。所以你能否就你們商業責任險的定價環境提供一些評論，說明目前看起來如何，以及與你們在商業責任險損失趨勢上所觀察到的情況相比如何。

Mike, good to hear from you. Yeah, the high-end of the low-single-digit range, just so that takes -- that's all in. That takes into account some of the impact that we'll get from our three-year policies. Specifically to casualty, and not bifurcating it down, but just all in on casualty, we're getting mid-single-digit increases.

Mike，很高興聽到你的聲音。是的，所謂低個位數區間的上緣，為了說清楚——那是全數合計的。其中也納入我們三年期保單將帶來的一些影響。就責任險而言，不再細分，但若以責任險整體來看，我們取得的是中個位數的調升。

I think more importantly, from my perspective, Mike, in shifting market cycles, I think our focus on policy – you know, we're a package writer, focused on policy-by-policy risk selection terms, conditions and then using the pricing tools we have and segmenting the book is where we focus most of our efforts versus any straight average. It just doesn't -- the straight average just doesn't tell the story through any market cycle.

Mike，我認為更重要的是，從我的角度看，在市場循環轉換之際，我們的重點放在保單層級——你知道，我們是套裝保單承作公司，著重於逐張保單的風險篩選、條款與條件，並運用我們現有的定價工具、對保單組合進行分群；相較之下，我們不會把主要精力放在任何單一的簡單平均數上。因為在任何市場循環中，單純的平均值都無法說明全貌。

But I think even now, as things are softening, I think it's even more crucial that our underwriters working with the agents continue to deliver on that segmentation strategy.

但我認為即使在現在、當市場正在轉趨疲軟之際，我們的核保人員與代理人合作、持續落實該分群策略就更為關鍵。

Okay. Steve, I guess switching over to personal, specifically the umbrella book. You've grown that nicely in the last couple of years. I think you're north of $200 million or so of premium, so it's a small base. But can you just talk about your strategy there? How big do you want that to be, say over the next year or two? Does it get to $0.5 billion in the next two years. Obviously, thoughts on the volatility of that business in terms of losses. So just thinking about how much you want to grow in the near term on umbrella.

好的。Steve，我想把話題轉到個人險，特別是超額責任險（umbrella）業務。你們過去幾年在這方面成長得不錯。我想你們的保費規模已超過2億美元左右，因此基期仍小。但你能談談你們在這方面的策略嗎？例如在未來一到兩年，你希望它成長到多大？兩年內是否能達到5億美元？另外也想聽聽你對該業務損失波動性的看法。所以就是想了解你們短期內希望在超額責任險上成長多少。

Thanks, Mike. No specific guidance on how large or how much we want to grow that umbrella. Again, in Personal Lines, I think, as you know, we're a package writer. And so in many, many cases that umbrella comes along with that, probably even more so with our focus on Private Client. Those individuals, higher net worth folks, are desiring larger limits. And we've got the balance sheet, we've got the expertise, and that has performed well for us.

謝謝，Mike。我們不提供關於超額責任險要做到多大、或要成長多少的具體指引。同樣地，在個人險方面，我想你也知道，我們是套裝保單承作公司。因此在很多情況下，超額責任險會隨之搭配，尤其是我們聚焦於私人客戶（Private Client）之後更是如此。這些高淨值客戶傾向需要更高的保額上限。而我們具備資產負債表實力，也具備專業能力，而且這項業務對我們而言表現一直不錯。

Legal system abuse in Commercial Lines has been well documented. And so it's something we pay attention to, certainly in Personal Lines, especially with umbrella and excess. But we feel good about where we are there, and we'll continue to grow it.

商業險領域中對法律制度的濫用早已有充分紀錄。因此這是我們會關注的事項，當然在個人險方面亦然，特別是雨傘險與超額險。但我們對目前的狀況感到放心，並且會持續擴大這項業務。

Okay. Yeah. And then just one quick numbers question, if I could. Mike, the $72 million on 2025 accident year, I assume that's homeowners and property lines.

好的。是的。然後如果可以的話，我再快速問一個數字問題。Mike，2025事故年度的7,200萬美元，我假設那是住宅險與財產險線。

Repeat that again.

再重複一次。

Mike, you mentioned the $72 million of favorable in ‘25 accident year. I was just was curious to make sure that was that homeowners and commercial property?

Mike，你提到在‘25事故年度有7,200萬美元的有利因素。我只是想確認那是住宅險和商業財產險嗎？

Yes.

是。

Josh Shanker, Bank of America.

Josh Shanker，美國銀行。

First, I just want to say Dennis, on Dennis' retirement, it's a big deal at Cincinnati Financial, and I wish Dennis the best,and he's just the best in the business, so I only have great things to say and think about him. So we're going to miss you, Dennis.

首先，我想說Dennis退休這件事，在辛辛那提金融（Cincinnati Financial）是一件大事；我祝Dennis一切順利，他確實是業界最頂尖的人之一，所以我對他只有讚美與敬意。我們會想念你，Dennis。

Well, thank you, Josh, and the team is ready to continue to execute. Now, I'm around for a few more months, but thank you.

謝謝你，Josh，團隊已準備好持續落實執行。我還會再待幾個月，但謝謝你。

Well, so here's my question. First of all, -- when I look at the growth rate of the homeowners business, and I compare that to other personal and auto, I think of a high net worth package as you want everything from the company or maybe I'm wrong from the customer or maybe I'm wrong about that. You sell a whole package. We want your cars; you want your toys. We want your art -- why is there such a difference in the growth rates? Are you looking for a property-only type of high net worth purchaser? Or what's the difference between the growth rates of the subgroups within personal line?

那我的問題是這樣。首先，當我看住宅險業務的成長率，並把它和其他個人險與汽車險相比時，我會想到高淨值套裝保單：你希望客戶把所有險種都交給同一家公司——也許我從公司角度想錯了，或從客戶角度想錯了。你們賣的是整套方案。我們要你的車；我們要你的玩具。我們要你的藝術品——為什麼成長率差異會這麼大？你們是在尋找只買財產的高淨值客戶嗎？或者個人險內各子群的成長率差異是什麼原因？

Yeah. Thanks, Josh. You're all over it. We are a package writer, both in middle market, Personal Lines, and in Private Client. We want to be an all-line solution for the policyholders.

是的。謝謝，Josh。你抓到重點了。我們是做套裝承保的，不論是在中型市場、個人險，或是私人客戶（Private Client）業務。我們希望為保戶提供全險種的一站式解決方案。

But you make a great point. I think it's one of the advantages we have by both by being a premier carrier for our agents in middle market and high net worth. There's diversification that naturally comes with that business. High net worth, you're right. It is more property driven; homes are larger. There's just maybe fewer vehicles, but high net worth generally is property-driven, less auto. Middle market is the opposite, lower property, higher auto pricing.

但你提得很好。我認為我們的優勢之一，是同時成為中型市場與高淨值領域中，代理人首選的頂尖保險公司。這類業務自然帶來分散化。高淨值方面你說得對。它更偏向財產驅動；房屋更大。車輛可能較少，但高淨值一般而言是以財產為主、汽車為輔。中型市場則相反，財產較低、汽車定價較高。

And then I'll take -- you didn't ask this, but I'll take it a step further. We're getting geographic diversification between middle market and high net worth as well. Middle market in general, tends to be more in the center of the country. Private Client seems to be, or is, not seems to be, but it is more Northeast, West Coast, Florida-driven.

另外我再補充一步——你沒有問，但我再延伸一下。我們在中型市場與高淨值之間也取得了地理分散。中型市場一般較集中在美國中部。私人客戶看起來是——不是看起來，而是確實——更偏向東北部、西岸以及佛羅里達。

Well, so when I look at the numbers, 23% growth in the homeowners segment, but the new business production is down a lot. I assume most of that growth is really coming through rate these past couple of quarters. Can we bifurcate between how much rate you're asking and how much your appetite for unit growth has changed in the past 6 months?

那當我看數字時，住宅險區塊成長23%，但新業務產能卻大幅下降。我猜這些季度的大部分成長其實主要來自費率。我們能否拆分一下：你們要求的費率上調有多少，以及過去6個月你們對單位成長（承保量成長）的偏好改變了多少？

Yeah, you're right. There's a lot of moving parts. The one thing I would say, I'd go back to also, Josh, is that last year, we had reinstatement premiums in the homeowner line, and that's making the comps different. So I'd point you to that. With regards to just the new business.

是的，你說得對。這裡有很多變動因素。我想補充的一點是，Josh，去年我們在住宅險線有復效保費（reinstatement premiums），這讓同比比較變得不同。所以我會請你留意那一點。至於新業務方面。

When we -- after the loss last year in California, as we've discussed, we did an immediate after-action lessons learned. And so growth in California new business really slowed last year. It's kind of picked back up here in the first quarter, but not enough to maybe overcome what's come down there. We've still got a lot of rate working into the book.

在我們——如同先前討論的，去年加州發生損失之後，我們立刻做了事後檢討、汲取教訓。因此去年加州的新業務成長確實大幅放緩。今年第一季有些回升，但可能還不足以彌補先前下滑的幅度。我們仍有不少費率調整正在反映到整體保單組合中。

I think the biggest thing, though, Josh, to wrap it all up, again, a lot of moving parts. But if you look at '24 and '25, and we've talked a lot about this, they were historic hard market years, especially for Personal Lines. So I think we're just really returning back to maybe a little bit more of a normal state.

不過我認為最重要的是，Josh，總結來說，確實有很多變動因素。但如果你看‘24和‘25，我們也談過很多次，那是歷史性的硬市場年份，尤其對個人險而言。所以我認為我們只是回到比較正常的狀態。

Is there a decline in the amount of new business as measured by number of homes that you're putting on in 1Q '26 versus 1Q '25 and 1Q '24?

以你們承保新增的房屋數量來衡量，‘26年第一季相較於‘25年第一季與‘24年第一季，新業務量是否有下降？

Yeah. The -- in Commercial Lines, our policy counts are growing and Personal lines, the exposure units have been down a little bit. So how much it would impact that? But to answer your question, yeah, the policy counts are down a bit. And is a good thing (multiple speakers)

是的。——在商業險方面，我們的保單件數在成長；而在個人險方面，曝險單位（exposure units）略有下降。所以這會造成多大影響？但回答你的問題，是的，保單件數確實下降了一些。而這是一件好事(多位發言者)

No continue and I'll get you then it's a good thing you were saying.

不，你繼續，我等你說完你剛才提到的「這是一件好事」。

Yes. No, we're just getting -- just like -- it's just one-on-one. We're getting more rate for less exposure. So we think that bodes well.

是。不，我們只是——就像——一對一地看。我們用較少的曝險取得更高的費率。所以我們認為這是個好兆頭。

And then in California, when you are raising price, -- are you finding that you're retaining that customer, the customer is happy to stay on that price? Or is that causing higher amount of churn?

那在加州，當你們提高價格時——你們是否發現能留住這些客戶，客戶願意接受這個價格繼續投保？還是這會造成更高的流失率？

Yeah. There is competition back in California. Now just as a reminder, there as well, Josh. All new homeowner business that we are writing today, and have been over the last several years is on an excess and surplus lines basis. So the rates, I think, over the last several years there have been pretty stable, we feel they're adequate or comfortable with the pricing there. But we are seeing some additional competition come back into California from new business.

是的。加州的競爭正在回來。另外也提醒你一下，Josh。我們目前所承作、且過去幾年一直在承作的所有加州住宅新業務，都是以超額及剩餘線（excess and surplus lines）的方式承保。因此我認為過去幾年那邊的費率相當穩定；我們覺得定價是足夠的，或對那邊的價格水準感到安心。但我們確實看到一些新的競爭者在加州的新業務市場回流。

Mike Zaremski, BMO Capital Markets.

Mike Zaremski，BMO 資本市場。

First question, shifting to capital management. We saw an elevated share repurchase level. I don't think we've seen that in a while. We -- I can see that the cap currently versus historical, you can see top line growth is running a bit lower as the market becomes more competitive. Maybe just -- should we be run-rating this level of buybacks unless things change meaningfully on the valuation of the Cinci stock?

第一個問題，轉到資本管理。我們看到股票回購水準偏高。我覺得我們有一段時間沒看到這樣的情況了。我們——我可以看到目前的資本水準相較於歷史，你也可以看到隨著市場競爭加劇，營收成長率略低一些。也許想請教——除非 Cinci 股票的估值出現有意義的變化，否則我們是否應該把這個回購水準視為常態化的運行水準（run-rate）？

Yeah. Mike, this is Mike. So that's a great question, and thank you for it.

是的。Mike，我是 Mike。這是個很好的問題，謝謝你。

It was probably, I'll say, a little elevated for Q1 of this year. But is it unusual? No, it's not. We still have said that we're doing maintenance, maybe a little bit of maintenance plus. The last year that we did, I'll say, a little over 1 million shares in Q1 was back in 2020. So six years ago, we did 2.5 million shares. But if I start to look at full years, we've done almost [1.1 million] this year. Last year, we did [1.3 million, 1.1 million before that, 2022, we did 3.7 million]. So I would say this is not unusual. It's, I would call it, maintenance plus, and we'll see how things go the rest of the year and what we determine to do.

我會說，今年第一季可能確實稍微偏高一些。但這不尋常嗎？不，並不。我們仍然說我們是在做維持性回購，可能再加一點點。上一次我們在第一季回購、我會說略高於 100 萬股，是在 2020 年。所以六年前，我們做了 250 萬股。但如果我看全年，我們今年已經做了將近 [110 萬]股。去年我們做了[130 萬股、再前一年 110 萬股，2022 年我們做了 370 萬股]。所以我會說這並不不尋常。我會稱之為維持性回購加碼（maintenance plus），我們會看看今年剩下的時間情況如何，以及我們決定要怎麼做。

And just maybe switching gears, to the question I think we get the most on, is back to the lawsuit, social inflation lines of business. We can see from your KPIs that the casualty has been favorable last for the last five quarters. And the underlying is in commercial auto and et cetera, it seems to be improving a bit. Would you say you guys are getting over the hump of more rearview mirror there? Or is it still TBD and making sure to be very careful on growth using your analytics in those lines of business.

再來也許換個話題，回到我想我們被問得最多的問題：訴訟、社會通膨相關的業務線。從你們的 KPI 來看，意外險（casualty）已經連續五個季度表現有利。而在商用車險等領域的基本面似乎也在改善一些。你們會說已經度過最艱難的階段、更多是回頭看（rearview mirror）嗎？還是仍然 TBD，需要在這些業務線上運用你們的分析工具、在成長上保持非常謹慎？

Yeah. Thanks, Mike. You're again, all over it. And I'd say it's both. We are confident in the pricing and the risk selection that we're seeing there. But I'd say we also feel that we're not out of the woods as an industry and specifically us when it comes to social inflation, legal system abuse as we probably prefer to call it. And you're seeing some tort reform push around the country. We monitor that. APCIA, I think, does an excellent job on behalf of the industry. But I just think that there's still a tremendous amount of uncertainty around that.

是的。謝謝，Mike。你又說到重點了。我會說兩者皆是。我們對目前看到的定價與風險篩選是有信心的。但我也會說，從產業角度、以及特別是我們自身而言，在社會通膨——我們可能更願意稱之為法律制度濫用——方面，我們仍然覺得尚未脫離險境。你也看到全國各地有一些侵權改革（tort reform）的推動。我們會持續監測。我認為 APCIA 代表產業做得非常好。但我只是覺得，這方面仍然存在非常大的不確定性。

And so you can see it in our [ex-cat] accident-year picks, both in commercial casualty, commercial auto, I think, is where you -- that's kind of the epicenter.

因此你可以在我們的 [ex-cat] 事故年度（accident-year）損失選取（picks）中看到，無論是商業意外險或商用車險——我想那就是你——那算是震央。

So just I don't think we're over any hump. But I also think we're prepared for what might come at us just one based on our picks. But two, like you mentioned, the analytics, the way we're pricing risk by risk and risk selection.

所以我不認為我們已經跨過任何難關。但我也認為我們已經為可能迎面而來的情況做好準備：第一，基於我們的選取（picks）。第二，如你提到的，分析工具——我們逐一風險（risk by risk）的定價方式與風險篩選。

Got it. That's helpful. And then just lastly, stepping back, -- when we think about the overall competitive environment in Commercial Lines and taking into account your risk collection analytics, et cetera. But is it fair to kind of if we paint a broad brush to say pricing powers on commercial lines is still biased downwards versus kind of stable-ish over the coming year despite kind of still material levels of social inflation impacting the broader industry?

了解。這很有幫助。最後一個問題，拉遠一點看——當我們思考商業保險（Commercial Lines）的整體競爭環境，並把你們的風險篩選分析等因素納入考量。但如果我們用比較概括的方式來說，是否可以認為商業保險的定價能力仍偏向下行，而不是在未來一年大致維持穩定，儘管社會通膨仍以相當程度影響整個產業？

Yeah. Mike, I won't project forward for you. But where we are right now, I would say it is -- you can't paint the whole book with a broad brush. We're definitely seeing pressure. The larger the premium, the larger the account, the more pressure there is there. And then peel that back a little bit, it's even more so on commercial property.

是的。Mike，我不會替你做前瞻預測。但就我們目前所處的狀況，我會說——你不能用一把大刷子把整個保單組合（book）一概而論。我們確實看到壓力。保費越大、帳戶越大，壓力就越大。再往下拆一點，在商業財產險（commercial property）上更是如此。

We're still seeing net rate. But as I was mentioning to Mike Phillips earlier, the average just doesn't -- really doesn't tell the story. It's look at every single policy on a risk-adjusted basis and make decisions from there. And our underwriters just, I can't speak highly enough of how they're executing on that through all market cycles.

我們仍然看到淨費率（net rate）。但正如我先前對 Mike Phillips 提到的，平均值其實——真的無法說明全貌。而是要在風險調整（risk-adjusted）的基礎上檢視每一張保單，並據此做決策。而我們的核保人員在所有市場循環中對此的執行，我怎麼稱讚都不為過。

And I think what makes it maybe more efficient, more effective, is that they are dealing with the most professional agents in the business that can convey value. And that's what we're looking for: long term, consistency, stability, and predictability. And I just think I'd be remiss if I didn't mention just how our underwriters and our agents are executing on that.

我認為讓這件事可能更有效率、更有效果的是，他們面對的是業界最專業的代理人，能夠傳達價值。而這正是我們所追求的：長期、一致性、穩定性與可預測性。如果我不提一下我們的核保人員與代理人是如何在這方面落實執行，那我就失職了。

And just lastly then, I know -- Cinci has been proactively moving into the, I don't know if larger account is the right word because I don't want to compare you guys to CHUBB or an AIG, bigger premium policy levels over many years now. So does that just mean maybe the hit rate could be a bit lower on the larger premium stuff if the current competitive environment sticks?

最後一個問題，我知道——Cinci 這些年一直主動往更大的——我不確定「更大帳戶」是不是正確用詞，因為我不想把你們拿去跟 CHUBB 或 AIG 比——但就是多年來逐步承作更高保費層級的保單。所以如果目前的競爭環境持續，是否意味著在較高保費的業務上，中標率（hit rate）可能會低一些？

Yeah, Mike, absolutely. And you're right. We've always written larger accounts for our agents, but we really decided to get deliberate about it, and build out expertise within the last decade. We continue to grow that unit. Our agents are responding well to the expertise that we bring to the table across all -- kind of all disciplines there.

是的，Mike，完全是。而且你說得對。我們一直都有替代理人承作較大型的帳戶，但我們在過去十年才真正決定更有策略地去做，並建立相關專業能力。我們持續擴大那個單位。我們的代理人對我們在各個——算是各個專業領域所帶來的專業能力，反應很好。

But yes, as we're growing that, it might be putting a little bit more of an outsized pressure because we're -- not only are we not winning on some accounts based on our view of the risk, you know retention is struggling there a little bit, too.

但沒錯，隨著我們擴張這塊，可能會帶來一些相對更大的壓力，因為我們——不只是基於我們對風險的看法，在某些帳戶上沒有拿下，你知道，在那裡的續保留存（retention）也有點吃力。

Paul Newsome, Piper Sandler

Paul Newsome，Piper Sandler

I was wanting to go back to the reserve issues, very small change in the past pre '24. I presume that's pretty much all casualty at this point. Are we making a little bit of a statement or not? I don't want to read too much into [$16 million], but about what's going on with casualty reserves there?

我想回到準備金的議題，過去在 '24 之前的變動非常小。我推測到目前為止幾乎都是意外險。我們是在做一點表態，還是沒有？我不想對[1,600 萬美元]過度解讀，但那邊意外險準備金到底發生了什麼事？

No, Paul. Let me -- I'm going to state that again. So we -- in total, obviously, we had 3.2 points of favorable development. It was $81 million. So this is, in total, $72 million of that favorable development was for accident-year 2025, $25 million was favorable for 2024. And then the remaining $16 million unfavorable was across multiple years prior to that. So it's really kind of spread across multiple accident years. And I would say nothing is really popping out to me.

不，Paul。讓我——我再說一次。所以——總體來看，很明顯我們有 3.2 個點的有利發展。金額是 8,100 萬美元。因此，整體而言，這些有利發展中有 7,200 萬美元屬於 2025 事故年度，2,500 萬美元對 2024 年是有利的。然後剩下的 1,600 萬美元不利則分散在更早之前的多個年度。所以其實是分散在多個事故年度。而我會說，沒有什麼特別讓我覺得異常突出的。

My follow-up question, sort of illustrates I was having trouble sleeping last night. There was a statement in your 10-Q that was a qualifier for the reiteration of your long-term combined ratio goals. And it's something along the lines of theirs several reasons why '26 results might be below the long-term targets. Any color on that thought and what we should be thinking about in terms of what you're concerned about?

我的追問，某種程度上也說明我昨晚睡不好。你們的 10-Q 裡有一段說法，作為你們重申長期綜合率目標時的限定條件。大意是有幾個原因可能導致 '26 年的結果低於長期目標。能否補充一下這個想法，以及我們應該如何理解你們在擔心什麼？

Yeah. No, Paul, nothing more to read into that. Our long-term target is still 92 to 98 . We'll continue to underwrite price risk by risk. And with -- we're still writing same mix of business, everything there is consistent just with the market that might be putting more pressure, downward pressure on rate.

是的。不，Paul，沒有更多需要解讀的。我們的長期目標仍然是 92 到 98。我們會持續逐一風險承保、逐一風險定價。而且——我們仍在承作相同的業務組合，各方面都一致，只是市場可能帶來更大的壓力，對費率形成下行壓力。

I think it's -- there's just an acknowledgment that will be prudent in our picks there.

我想——這只是承認我們在那方面的選擇會保持審慎。

(Operator Instructions) Meyer Shields, KBW.

(接線員指示) Meyer Shields，KBW。

I guess one question. You talked about the [100], I think eight agency appointments in the first quarter -- and I know that historically, Cincinnati has been very demanding in terms of agency quality. Does that number have to slow down at any point in time? And maybe more -- less big picture. I was hoping you could talk about which geographic regions are seeing the most appointments right now?

我想問一個問題。你提到第一季大概有 100——我想是 8 個代理機構委任——而且我知道歷史上 Cincinnati 對代理機構品質的要求非常嚴格。這個數字在某個時間點是否必須放慢？另外，可能更——不那麼宏觀。我想請你談談目前哪些地理區域的委任最多？

Yes. Yes. Thanks, Meyer. We, the strategy as a company has always been to have as few agents as possible, but as many, as necessary. And you look at us on a relative basis to the industry and to our peers.

是的。是的。謝謝你，Meyer。我們公司一直以來的策略都是：代理人越少越好，但需要多少就有多少。你把我們拿來和整個產業以及同業相比。

I think we've got about 20 -- roughly 2,400 agency relationships operating out of 3,500-plus locations. We've always had a limited distribution model and even adding 300 or 400 agencies or whatever it might be in a year, it's still a relatively small number. But I think the most important point, and you make it, Meyer, is I feel like in my 35 years, one of the keys to our success is we've always done a great job of underwriting agencies. And you point to that with the quality. And that's a big focus of ours is just making sure that we're aligned with these agencies, that they're professional, their centers of influence in their community.

我想我們大約有 20——約 2,400 個代理機構合作關係，分布在 3,500 多個據點。我們一直採取有限的通路模式，即使一年新增 300 或 400 家代理機構或不管是多少，仍然是相對小的數量。但我認為最重要的一點——而你也提到了，Meyer——以我 35 年的經驗，我覺得我們成功的關鍵之一，是我們一直很擅長對代理機構進行承保評估。你提到的就是品質。而我們非常重視的一點，就是確保我們與這些代理機構理念一致，他們專業，並且在其社區中是具有影響力的核心。

And we think that there are a lot more agencies across the country that meet those standards. And we'll continue to appoint; we'll continue to keep our standards high. And to your question on various states, we feel like we can appoint agencies in any state and do well. But we do prioritize agency appointments in those states where we feel like right now, we have a better-than-average shot at good risk-adjusted returns.

而我們認為全國還有更多代理機構符合這些標準。我們會持續委任；也會持續維持高標準。至於你問到各州的情況，我們覺得在任何一州都能委任代理機構並做得很好。但我們確實會優先在那些州推動代理機構委任，因為我們認為目前在那些州更有機會取得高於平均的風險調整後報酬。

Okay. Great. That's very helpful. Another question, does either -- do either Cincinnati Global or Cincinnati Re have any exposure to the political violence, marine or energy risks in the Middle East now?

好的。很好。這非常有幫助。另一個問題是，Cincinnati Global 或 Cincinnati Re 目前是否有任何曝險於中東的政治暴力、海運或能源風險？

Yes, to answer that, and thanks for the question, Meyer. It's very little that we have. I think there was a little bit more on the Cinci Re side, but it was it was $5 million. On the -- Cincinnati Global, it was $1 million and actually, it was below $1 million. So very minor in total, but we are -- we'll be watching that one day at a time.

是的，回答這個問題，也謝謝你的提問，Meyer。我們的曝險非常少。我想在 Cinci Re 那邊稍微多一點，但也只有 500 萬美元。至於——Cincinnati Global 是 100 萬美元，而且其實低於 100 萬美元。所以整體而言非常輕微，但我們會——每天持續關注。

And we have no further questions from our audience at this time. Mr. Spray, I'm happy to turn the floor back to you, sir, for any additional or closing remarks that you have.

目前我們的聽眾沒有更多問題。Spray 先生，我很樂意把時間交還給您，請您做任何補充或結語。

Well, thank you, Jim, and thank you all for joining us today. We look forward to speaking with you again on our second-quarter call.

好的，謝謝你，Jim，也謝謝各位今天加入我們。我們期待在第二季電話會議上再與各位交流。

Ladies and gentlemen, this does conclude today's meeting, and we thank you all for your participation. You may now disconnect your lines, and have a great day.

各位女士、先生，今天的會議到此結束，感謝各位的參與。您現在可以掛線，祝您有美好的一天。