辛辛納提金融 (CINF) 2025 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Good day, and welcome to the Cincinnati Financial Corporation second-quarter earnings conference call. (Operator Instructions) Please note, this event is being recorded.

大家好，歡迎參加辛辛那提金融公司第二季財報電話會議。（操作員指示）請注意，此事件正在被記錄。

I would now like to turn the conference over to Dennis McDaniel, Investor Relations Officer. Please go ahead.

現在，我想將會議交給投資者關係官丹尼斯·麥克丹尼爾 (Dennis McDaniel)。請繼續。

Hello, this is Dennis McDaniel at Cincinnati Financial. Thank you for joining us for our second-quarter 2025 earnings conference call.

您好，我是辛辛那提金融的丹尼斯·麥克丹尼爾。感謝您參加我們的 2025 年第二季財報電話會議。

Late yesterday, we issued a news release on our results along with our supplemental financial package, including our quarter end-investment portfolio. To find copies of any of these documents, please visit our investor website at investors.cinfin.com. The shortest route to the information is the Quarterly Results section near the middle of the Investor Overview page.

昨天晚些時候，我們發布了一份有關我們業績的新聞稿以及我們的補充財務方案，其中包括我們的季末投資組合。如需這些文件的副本，請造訪我們的投資者網站 investors.cinfin.com。獲取這些資訊的最快捷途徑是「投資者概覽」頁面中間附近的「季度業績」部分。

On this call, you'll first hear from President and Chief Executive Officer Steve Spray, and then from Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer Mike Sewell. After their prepared remarks, investors participating on the call may ask questions. At that time, some responses may be made by others in the room with us, including Executive Chairman Steve Johnston; Chief Investment Officer Steve Soloria; and Cincinnati Insurance's Chief Claims Officer Mark Schambow; and Senior Vice President of Corporate Finance Theresa Hoffer.

在這次電話會議中，您將首先聽到總裁兼首席執行官史蒂夫·斯普雷 (Steve Spray) 的發言，然後是執行副總裁兼首席財務官邁克·塞維爾 (Mike Sewell) 的發言。在發表準備好的發言後，參加電話會議的投資人可以提出問題。屆時，與我們在場的其他人可能會做出一些回應，包括執行董事長史蒂夫·約翰斯頓 (Steve Johnston)、首席投資官史蒂夫·索洛里亞 (Steve Soloria)、辛辛那提保險公司的首席理賠官馬克·沙姆博 (Mark Schambow) 以及公司財務高級副總裁特蕾莎·霍弗 (Theresa Hoffer)。

Please note that some of the matters to be discussed today are forward looking. These forward-looking statements involve certain risks and uncertainties. With respect to these risks and uncertainties, we direct your attention to our news release and to our various filings with the SEC. Also, a reconciliation of non-GAAP measures was provided with the news release. Statutory accounting data is prepared in accordance with statutory accounting rules and therefore is not reconciled to GAAP.

請注意，今天要討論的一些事項是前瞻性的。這些前瞻性陳述涉及一定的風險和不確定性。對於這些風險和不確定性，我們請您關注我們的新聞稿以及我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的各種文件。此外，新聞稿中還提供了非公認會計準則 (non-GAAP) 指標的對帳表。法定會計數據是根據法定會計規則編制的，因此與 GAAP 不一致。

Now, I'll turn the call over to Steve.

現在，我將把電話轉給史蒂夫。

Good morning, and thank you for joining us today to hear more about our results. I'm pleased to report strong operating performance. Because we are confident in the long-term direction and strategy of our insurance business, we didn't lose focus after the California wildfires early in the year. We stayed anchored to our agent-centered strategy, continuing to balance profitability and growth. We also continue to benefit from rebalancing our investment portfolio in the second half of last year and reported very strong investment income growth in the second quarter of this year.

早安，感謝您今天加入我們並了解我們的成果。我很高興地報告強勁的經營業績。由於我們對保險業務的長期方向和策略充滿信心，因此在年初加州野火發生後我們並沒有失去焦點。我們堅持以代理商為中心的策略，繼續平衡獲利能力和成長。我們也繼續受益於去年下半年投資組合的重新平衡，並在今年第二季報告了非常強勁的投資收益成長。

Our commercial lines and excess and surplus lines insurance segments again produced combined ratios below 93%. Second-quarter 2025 results for Cincinnati Re and Cincinnati Global were also outstanding, each with a combined ratio below 85%. Spring and summer storms added 23.8 percentage points to our personal lines combined ratio, and its combined ratio was still just 2 percentage points shy of an underwriting profit for the quarter. The second half of the year is typically more profitable for our personal lines business. Over the past five years, we've seen an average improvement of 8 points in the second half of the year for that segment.

我們的商業險和超額險及剩餘險保險部門的綜合成本率再次低於 93%。辛辛那提再保險公司和辛辛那提全球保險公司 2025 年第二季的業績也十分出色，綜合成本率都低於 85%。春季和夏季風暴導致我們的個人險綜合成本率增加了 23.8 個百分點，但其綜合成本率仍僅比本季承保利潤低 2 個百分點。通常來說，下半年我們的個人險業務利潤更高。在過去五年中，我們看到該領域在下半年平均提高了 8 個百分點。

Net income of $685 million for the second quarter of 2025 more than doubled our result from a year ago and included recognition of $380 million on an after-tax basis for the increase in fair value of equity securities still held. Non-GAAP operating income of $311 million for the second quarter was up 52%. Our 94.9% second-quarter 2025 property casualty combined ratio improved by 3.6 percentage points compared with the second quarter last year, despite a 1-point increase in catastrophe losses. The 85.1% accident year 2025 combined ratio before catastrophe losses for the second quarter improved by 3.1 percentage points compared with the accident year 2024.

2025 年第二季的淨收入為 6.85 億美元，比去年同期成長了一倍多，其中包括以稅後基礎確認的 3.8 億美元，用於仍持有的股權證券的公允價值增加。第二季非公認會計準則營業收入為 3.11 億美元，成長 52%。儘管巨災損失增加了 1 個百分點，但我們 2025 年第二季的財產意外險綜合比率為 94.9%，與去年第二季相比提高了 3.6 個百分點。2025 年第二季災難損失前的事故綜合成本率為 85.1%，與 2024 年事故相比提高了 3.1 個百分點。

Our consolidated property casualty net written premiums grew 11% for the quarter, including 16% growth in agency renewal premiums. New business written premiums continued to grow in our commercial and excess and surplus lines segments. However, they decreased by $22 million in our personal lines segment, in part from a $13 million reduction in California as we slowed growth in some parts of that state. Steady premium growth and reinsurance market opportunities prompted us to add an additional layer of $300 million on top of our property catastrophe reinsurance program. Expanded coverage totaling $129 million, or 43% of the layer, was placed with reinsurers for an estimated ceded premium cost of less than $5 million. We continue to focus on our profitable premium growth objectives that are supported by various efforts, including superior claims service and fostering relationships with the best independent insurance agents in our industry. Our underwriters excel in pricing and risk segmentation on a policy-by-policy basis as they make risk selection decisions. Combining that with average price increases should help us continue to improve our underwriting profitability.

本季度，我們的綜合財產險淨承保保費增加了 11%，其中代理續保保費增加了 16%。我們的商業和超額及剩餘線業務的新業務承保保費持續成長。然而，我們的個人險業務減少了 2,200 萬美元，部分原因是由於我們減緩了加州部分地區的成長，該州的保險業務減少了 1,300 萬美元。穩定的保費成長和再保險市場機會促使我們在財產巨災再保險計畫的基礎上再增加 3 億美元的保險金額。擴大的保險範圍總計 1.29 億美元，佔保險層的 43%，交給了再保險公司，預計分保保費成本不到 500 萬美元。我們將繼續專注於獲利保費成長目標，並透過各種努力來支持這一目標，包括卓越的理賠服務和與業內最佳獨立保險代理商建立關係。我們的核保人在製定風險選擇決策時，擅長根據每份保單進行定價和風險細分。結合平均價格上漲，這應該有助於我們繼續提高承保獲利能力。

Estimated average renewal price increases for most lines of business during the second quarter were lower than the first quarter of 2025, but still at a level we believe was healthy. Commercial lines in total averaged increases near the high end of the mid-single-digit percentage range, and excess and surplus lines was again in the high single-digit range. Our personal lines segment included homeowners in the low double-digit range and personal auto in the high single-digit range.

預計第二季度大多數業務線的平均續約價格漲幅低於 2025 年第一季度，但仍處於我們認為健康的水平。商業險種整體平均增幅接近中等個位數百分比範圍的高端，超額險種和盈餘險種再次處於高個位數範圍。我們的個人險業務包括低兩位數範圍的房屋保險和高個位數範圍的個人汽車保險。

Moving on to highlight the second-quarter performance by insurance segment, I'll note premium growth and underwriting profitability compared with a year ago. Commercial lines grew net written premiums 9%, with an excellent 92.9% combined ratio that improved by 6.2 percentage points, including 2.3 points from lower catastrophe losses. Personal lines grew net written premiums 20%, including growth in middle market accounts and Cincinnati Private Client. Its combined ratio was 102%, 4.9 percentage points better than last year, despite an increase of 2.9 points from higher catastrophe losses. Excess and surplus lines grew net written premiums 12% with a nice profit margin. That segment produced a combined ratio of 91.1%, an improvement of 4.3 percentage points.

接下來將重點放在保險部門第二季的業績，我將指出與去年同期相比的保費成長和承保獲利能力。商業險淨承保保費成長 9%，綜合成本率達到 92.9%，較上年同期改善 6.2 個百分點，其中巨災損失減少帶來了 2.3 個百分點的收益。個人險淨承保保費成長 20%，其中包括中階市場帳戶和辛辛那提私人客戶的成長。其綜合成本率為 102%，比去年同期下降了 4.9 個百分點，儘管巨災損失增加導致成本上升了 2.9 個百分點。超額險和盈餘險的淨承保保費增加了 12%，利潤率也相當可觀。該部門的綜合成本率為 91.1%，改善了 4.3 個百分點。

Cincinnati Re and Cincinnati Global each had an outstanding quarter and continue to reflect our efforts to diversify risk and further improve income stability. Cincinnati Re's second-quarter 2025 net written premiums decreased by 21%, reflecting pricing discipline where market conditions softened. Its combined ratio was 82.8%. Cincinnati Global's combined ratio was 78.4%, along with premium growth of 45% as it continues to benefit from product expansion in recent years. Our life insurance subsidiary had another strong quarter, including 8% net income growth. In addition, term life insurance earned premiums grew 3%.

辛辛那提再保險公司和辛辛那提全球保險公司均在本季度表現出色，繼續反映我們為分散風險和進一步提高收入穩定性所做的努力。辛辛那提再保險公司 2025 年第二季淨承保保費下降了 21%，反映出市場條件疲軟時的定價紀律。其綜合成本率為82.8%。辛辛那提全球的綜合成本率為 78.4%，保費成長率為 45%，這得益於近年來產品擴張的持續受益。我們的人壽保險子公司又度過了一個強勁的季度，淨收入成長了 8%。此外，定期壽險已賺保費增加了3%。

I'll end my commentary with a summary of our primary measure of long-term financial performance, the value creation ratio. Our VCR was 5.2% for the second quarter of 2025. Net income before investment gains or losses for the quarter contributed 2.3%. Higher overall valuation of our investment portfolio and other items contributed 2.9%.

我將以我們衡量長期財務表現的主要指標——價值創造率的總結來結束我的評論。我們的 2025 年第二季的 VCR 為 5.2%。本季投資損益前淨收入貢獻了2.3%。我們的投資組合及其他項目的整體估值較高，貢獻了 2.9%。

Now I'll turn it over to Chief Financial Officer Mike Sewell for additional insights regarding our financial performance.

現在，我將把問題交給財務長 Mike Sewell，請他進一步了解我們的財務表現。

Thank you, Steve, and thanks to all of you for joining us today. We reported excellent 18% growth in investment income in the second quarter of '25, reflecting efforts during 2024 to rebalance our investment portfolio. Bond interest income grew 24%, and net purchases of fixed-maturity securities totaled $492 million for the quarter and $712 million for the first six months of this year. The second-quarter pre-tax average yield of 4.93% for the fixed-maturity portfolio was up 29 basis points compared with last year. The average pre-tax yield for the total of purchased taxable and tax-exempt bonds during the second quarter of this year was 5.82%.

謝謝你，史蒂夫，也謝謝大家今天的參與。我們報告稱，2025 年第二季的投資收入成長了 18%，表現優異，這反映了我們在 2024 年為重新平衡投資組合所做的努力。債券利息收入成長 24%，本季固定期限證券淨購買額達 4.92 億美元，今年前六個月淨購買額達 7.12 億美元。第二季固定期限投資組合的稅前平均報酬率為 4.93%，較去年同期上升 29 個基點。今年第二季購買的應稅債券和免稅債券總額的平均稅前收益率為5.82%。

Dividend income was up 1%, and net purchases of equity securities totaled $56 million for the quarter and $61 million on a year-to-date basis. Valuation changes in aggregate for the second quarter were favorable for both our equity portfolio and our bond portfolio. Before tax effects, the net gain was $480 million for the equity portfolio and $16 million for the bond portfolio. At the end of the second quarter, the total investment portfolio net appreciated value was approximately $7.2 billion. The equity portfolio was in a net gain position of $7.6 billion, while the fixed-maturity portfolio was in a net loss position of $458 million.

股利收入成長 1%，本季股權證券淨購買總額達 5,600 萬美元，年初至今股權證券淨購買總額達 6,100 萬美元。第二季的整體估值變化對我們的股票投資組合和債券投資組合都有利。扣除稅費影響前，股票投資組合的淨收益為 4.8 億美元，債券投資組合的淨收益為 1,600 萬美元。第二季末，投資組合總淨增值約為72億美元。股票投資組合淨收益 76 億美元，而固定期限投資組合淨虧損 4.58 億美元。

Cash flow, in addition to higher bond yields, contributed to investment income growth. Cash flow from operating activities for the first six months of 2025 was $1.1 billion. That's down $44 million from a year ago due to paying $442 million more for catastrophe losses in the first half of this year.

現金流以及更高的債券殖利率也促進了投資收益的成長。2025 年前六個月的營運活動現金流為 11 億美元。由於今年上半年巨災損失賠償金額增加 4.42 億美元，因此比去年同期減少了 4,400 萬美元。

As usual, I'll briefly comment on expense management and our efforts to balance expense control with strategic business investments. The second quarter of 2025 property casualty underwriting expense ratio decreased by 1.8 percentage points, primarily due to growth in earned premiums, outpacing the growth in expenses. The 28.6% expense ratio contributed to strong results for the quarter, but I don't expect it to remain that low in the short term. There are several factors, such as the magnitude and timing of various expenses, that can cause variation between quarters.

像往常一樣，我將簡要評論一下費用管理以及我​​們在平衡費用控制和策略業務投資方面的努力。2025年第二季財產險承保費用率下降了1.8個百分點，主要由於已賺保費的增長超過了費用的增長。28.6%的費用率促成了本季的強勁業績，但我預計短期內該費用率不會保持如此低的水平。有多種因素可能導致季度之間的差異，例如各種費用的規模和時間。

Regarding loss reserves, our approach remains consistent and aims for net amounts in the upper half of the actuarial estimated range of net loss and loss expense reserves. As we do each quarter, we consider new information such as paid losses and case reserves. Then, we updated estimated ultimate losses and loss expenses by accident year and line of business. For the first six months of 2025, our net addition to property casualty loss and loss expense reserves was $829 million, including $711 million for the IBNR portion.

對於損失準備金，我們的方法保持一致，目標是使淨額處於精算估計的淨損失和損失費用準備金範圍的上半部。正如我們每個季度所做的那樣，我們會考慮新的信息，例如已付損失和案件準備金。然後，我們根據事故年份和業務範圍更新了預期的最終損失和損失費用。2025 年前六個月，我們的財產意外損失和損失費用準備金淨增加額為 8.29 億美元，其中 IBNR 部分為 7.11 億美元。

During the second quarter, we experienced $63 million of property casualty net favorable reserve development on prior accident years that benefited the combined ratio by 2.6 percentage points. On an all-lines basis by accident year, net favorable reserve development for the first six months of '25 totaled $154 million, including a favorable $183 million for '24, favorable $12 million for '23, and an unfavorable $41 million in aggregate for accident years prior to '23.

在第二季度，我們經歷了 6,300 萬美元的財產意外險淨盈餘準備金成長，相較於前幾年的事故年度，綜合成本率提高了 2.6 個百分點。以事故年份劃分的所有險種來看，25 年前六個月的淨有利準備金發展總額為 1.54 億美元，其中 2024 年為有利準備金 1.83 億美元，2023 年為有利準備金 1200 萬美元，2023 年之前事故年份的不利準備金總額為 4100 萬美元。

I'll conclude my comments with capital management highlights. We paid $133 million in dividends to shareholders during the second quarter of 2025. No shares were repurchased during the quarter. We believe both our financial flexibility and our financial strength are stellar. The parent company cash and marketable securities at the end of the quarter was $5.1 billion. Debt-to-total capital remained under 10%, and our quarter-end book value was a record high $91.46 per share, with $14.3 billion of GAAP consolidated shareholders' equity, providing ample capacity for profitable growth of our insurance operations.

我將以資本管理要點來結束我的評論。我們在 2025 年第二季向股東支付了 1.33 億美元的股利。本季沒有回購任何股票。我們相信我們的財務靈活性和財務實力都是一流的。本季末母公司現金及有價證券為51億美元。債務總額比率資本維持在 10% 以下，季度末帳面價值創下每股 91.46 美元的歷史新高，按照 GAAP 計算的合併股東權益為 143 億美元，為保險業務的盈利增長提供了充足的能力。

Now, I'll turn the call back over to Steve.

現在，我將把電話轉回給史蒂夫。

Thanks, Mike. We're continuing to follow the same bold vision our founders created 75 years ago, a company built for independent agents, doing business face to face, handling claims fast, fair and with empathy. It had the expertise and financial strength to grow through all market cycles. It had value in 1950, it has value today and I'm confident it will have value for decades to come.

謝謝，麥克。我們將繼續遵循創辦人 75 年前創建的大膽願景，即為獨立代理商建立一家公司，面對面開展業務，快速、公平、富有同情心地處理索賠。它擁有專業知識和財務實力，能夠在所有市場週期中成長。它在 1950 年就有價值，今天也有價值，我相信它在未來幾十年也會有價值。

As we've been celebrating our anniversary, we've also been recognizing the many associates who contributed to our success. I want to take a moment to thank one of them now. Theresa Hoffer will retire in September after 45 years of service. Her remarkable career includes joining our company as a clerical associate, earning an undergraduate and a graduate degree in the evenings and then advancing through the finance ranks to become an executive officer and treasurer for some of our insurance subsidiaries. Her hard work and dedication have benefited all of us. Thank you, Theresa, for your many years of leadership and friendship. We wish you all the best in this next chapter of your life.

在慶祝週年紀念日的同時，我們也對為我們的成功做出貢獻的眾多同事表示感謝。現在我想花點時間感謝其中一位。特蕾莎·霍弗 (Theresa Hoffer) 服務 45 年後將於 9 月退休。她輝煌的職業生涯包括以文職助理的身份加入我們公司，在晚上獲得本科和研究生學位，然後晉升至財務級別，成為我們一些保險子公司的執行官和財務主管。她的辛勤工作和奉獻精神使我們所有人都受益。特蕾莎，感謝您多年的領導和友誼。我們祝福您在人生的下一個篇章中一切順利。

As a reminder, with Theresa, Mike and me today are Steve Johnston, Steve Soloria, and Mark Schambow. Dorwin, please open the call for questions.

提醒一下，今天與 Theresa、Mike 和我一起的還有 Steve Johnston、Steve Soloria 和 Mark Schambow。多爾溫，請開始提問。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員指示）

Michael Phillips, Oppenheimer & Co Inc.

麥可·菲利普斯，奧本海默公司

It's Michael from Oppenheimer. First question, I want to parse out some differences in your commentary on the commercial lines renewal pricing. In the press release, you give some commentary, a little more detail by the line in the Q. In the Q, your commentary hasn't changed much, high-single-digit for commercial casualty, high-single-digit for commercial property, kind of mid-single-digit for commercial auto. And that's no different than the prior quarter, at least not last quarter.

我是奧本海默公司的麥可。第一個問題，我想分析您對商業線路續訂定價的評論中的一些差異。在新聞稿中，您根據 Q 中的行數給出了一些更詳細的評論。在 Q 中，您的評論沒有太大變化，商業傷亡為高個位數，商業財產為高個位數，商業汽車為中等個位數。這與上一季沒有什麼不同，至少與上一季沒有什麼不同。

This quarter, and Steve said in the opening comments, you've moved from commercial renewal pricing of high-single-digit to kind of mid-single-digit. I guess I'm trying to understand the differences between those two commentaries, first off. And then, it feels like maybe mid-single-digit pricing for commercial might be kind of where loss trends are. I don't know if you agree with that or not, and if so, what does that mean for future margin expansion?

本季度，正如史蒂夫在開場白中所說，你們的商業續訂定價已經從高個位數轉向了中等個位數。我想先嘗試理解這兩種評論之間的差異。然後，感覺也許商業的中位數個位數定價可能是虧損趨勢所在。我不知道您是否同意這一點，如果同意，這對未來的利潤率擴大意味著什麼？

Yeah, Mike, you're right, it has got a nuance there. What we're saying on commercial lines is that we've moved to the high end of the mid-single-digit, so it's just trying to point out candidly that it just was down a bit from the first quarter, just to -- again, just for total transparency. One thing that I -- a couple things, I guess, maybe point out the way I'm looking at it is the net rate changes remain very strong in commercial lines. To answer the second part of your question, maybe other than workers' compensation, we believe that the rate is at least matching or outpacing loss cost. Now, again, that's prospective. Everything we do is prospective on the pricing.

是的，麥克，你說得對，這其中確實有細微的差別。我們在商業方面所說的是，我們已經進入了中等個位數的高端，所以我們只是想坦率地指出，它只是比第一季度略有下降，只是為了——再次強調，只是為了完全透明。我想說的一件事——有幾件事也許可以指出我的看法，那就是商業險的淨利率變化仍然非常強勁。回答你問題的第二部分，也許除了工人賠償之外，我們認為該比率至少與損失成本相符或超過損失成本。現在，這又是一個預期。我們所做的一切都是基於定價的。

The other thing I would point out is, if you just look at the results in commercial lines, we've got now 13 and a half consecutive years of underwriting profit. The 92.9% here in the first six months. In prior calls, you've heard me talk a lot about the pricing sophistication and the segmentation that our underwriters, working with our agents, have just been executing on beautifully. And if you think about that book and the performance that we've had there and moving towards more price adequacy, I think that's what's putting a little bit of pressure on the overall average net rate change.

我想指出的另一件事是，如果只看商業險的業績，我們現在已經連續 13 年半實現承保利潤。前六個月這一比例為 92.9%。在之前的電話會議中，您已經聽過我多次談論我們的承銷商與代理商合作出色地執行的定價複雜度和細分。如果你考慮一下這本書以及我們在那裡的表現，並朝著更價格充足的方向發展，我認為這對整體平均淨利率變化施加了一點壓力。

What I focus more on, though, again, is the segmentation. Are we retaining that business that's most adequately priced? And then, are we being aggressive, working with our agents on the business that we feel needs the most rate action?

不過，我再次強調，我更關注的是細分。我們是否保留了價格最合理的業務？那麼，我們是否積極主動地與我們的代理商合作開展我們認為最需要採取利率行動的業務？

The second question is related to reserves and maybe specifically commercial casualty. I'm going to go back to the year-end data but couple that with what we've seen so far this year, where at year-end, you took some releases in GL in recent accident years, and I think now you're taking a little bit more in the recent accident years. Mike said 2024 was favorable, 2023 was favorable. I don't know what lines that was, but at least in GL you've taken some favorable development in the recent accident years.

第二個問題與儲備有關，特別是與商業意外險有關。我將回顧年終數據，但結合我們今年迄今為止看到的情況，在年底，你們在最近發生事故的年份中對 GL 進行了一些釋放，我認為現在你們在最近發生事故的年份中釋放了更多。麥克說 2024 年是有利的，2023 年也是有利的。我不知道那是什麼台詞，但至少在 GL，在最近的事故年份裡，你們取得了一些有利的發展。

So I guess, could you give us some comfort in how you can take those releases on the recent accident years for GL? I know that might not be too soon. Are you moving things around by accident year? But just some comfort around those recent accident years for general liability.

所以我想，您能否給我們一些安慰，告訴我們您如何看待 GL 最近幾年發生的事故？我知道這可能還不算太早。您是否意外地移動了物品？但對於最近幾年一般責任事故頻繁的情況，這只是一些安慰。

Yeah, this is Mike. Thanks for the question. I do gain, first of all, a lot of comfort with our reserving process. It's a consistent approach with some of the same actuaries doing the work. And then when I look at the numbers, and I do see it by year, we don't lay it all out exactly, but on the commercial casualty, as you noticed, it was $2 million favorable. If I look at the accident years, the large piece of it, $14 million, was favorable for the 2024 year. But if I start to look down, 2023, it was basically flat. '22 and '21, I'll call those two years were flat together. And going back to the years 2020 and prior, there was reserve strengthening of $10 million. So when you take a look at all that, the total reserves that are outstanding on that line, very little movement. But it's a little bit across the board. But your observation is correct that there is a little bit more for this quarter that was coming from the most recent current accident year.

是的，我是麥克。謝謝你的提問。首先，我確實對我們的預訂流程感到非常滿意。這是一種一致的方法，由相同的一些精算師來做這項工作。然後，當我查看這些數字時，我確實會按年份查看，我們並沒有把所有數字都列出來，但就商業損失而言，正如你所注意到的，它是 200 萬美元的有利數字。如果我看一下事故年份，其中很大一部分，1400 萬美元，對於 2024 年來說是有利的。但如果我開始往下看，2023 年，它基本上是持平的。 '22 年和 '21 年，我會稱這兩年是持平的。回顧 2020 年及之前，儲備增加了 1000 萬美元。因此，當您查看所有這些時，您會發現該線路上未償還的總儲備金變動非常小。但它有點太全面了。但您的觀察是正確的，本季的損失略多一些，這是由於最近的當前事故年份造成的。

Hey Mike, Steve Spray. I might just add I agree obviously completely with what Mike Sewell just said. But from my seat, I've been looking at this, here in my first year on the job and even prior to that, what I appreciate so much is, as Mike said, the consistent process and the consistent team. If you kind of just move up a layer, the way I've been looking at it is just the track record that we have as a company, 30-plus years of overall favorable reserve development.

嘿，麥克，史蒂夫·斯普雷。我還要補充一點，我顯然完全同意麥克休厄爾剛才所說的話。但從我的角度來看，在我上任的第一年，甚至在此之前，我非常欣賞的是，正如麥克所說的，一致的流程和一致的團隊。如果你只是向上移動一層，我一直看到的情況就是我們作為一家公司所擁有的業績記錄，30 多年來總體良好的儲備開發。

Commercial lines this year in total, we've got favorable reserve development. Every quarter, and I think I talked about this on the last quarter's call, every quarter in this line or that line, you're going to see some movement. I guess that's the nature of reserving. The thing I most appreciate is that our team here, the consistent team, follows that consistent process, and when they see something, they're quick to act. And I think that's what you're seeing. And the prudence that we are carrying with a lot of the uncertainty, both in casualty and in commercial auto, you can see the same thing.

就今年的商業線路而言，我們的儲備發展良好。每個季度，我想我在上個季度的電話會議上談到了這一點，每個季度在這條線或那條線上，你都會看到一些動靜。我想這就是保留的本質。我最欣賞的是，我們這裡的團隊，始終如一的團隊，遵循一致的流程，當他們看到某些事情時，他們會迅速採取行動。我想這就是你所看到的。我們對許多不確定性持謹慎態度，無論是在傷亡事故還是商業汽車領域，你都可以看到同樣的事情。

Mike Zaremski, BMO.

麥克·扎雷姆斯基，BMO。

On the expense ratio, which was much better than expected, I believe, Steve, in the prepared remarks you said there were some one-time items. So I guess, should we still be thinking that the guide on the expense ratio is trying to get below 30%? Or should we run rate some of this better than expected or half of it? Or just trying to see if there's anything really changed there.

關於費用率，這比預期要好得多，史蒂夫，我相信你在準備好的評論中說過有一些一次性項目。所以我想，我們是否仍應該認為費用率指南試圖低於 30%？或者我們的運行率應該高於預期或一半？或者只是想看看那裡是否真的有什麼變化。

Yes. No, that's a great question, Mike, and I appreciate that. And so it was a little bit better than what we were probably thinking. But again, there is some timing for some actual expenses. But really, the large piece of it was -- and we've been trying to do this -- is we've been trying to grow premium growth faster than expense growth.

是的。不，麥克，這是一個很好的問題，我很感激。所以它比我們想像的要好一點。但同樣，有些實際開支也需要一定的時間。但實際上，最大的問題是——我們一直在努力做到這一點——我們一直在努力使保費成長速度超過費用成長速度。

And expenses are going to -- they're going to go up. And so we watch that very carefully. But in between quarters, you may have certain expenses that might hit here or there.

而且費用將會上升。因此我們非常仔細地觀察這一點。但在季度之間，您可能會產生某些支出。

But I would say, as a run rate, we're trying to be below 30% on an ongoing basis. And once we're there, and I think we're kind of right there, I'm going to set my targets on a 29% or below. So we're not going to give up. We're going to consistently work towards lowering that ratio.

但我想說，作為運行率，我們正努力持續保持在 30% 以下。一旦我們達到這個目標，而且我認為我們已經差不多達到這個目標了，我會把我的目標設定在 29% 或以下。所以我們不會放棄。我們將不斷努力降低該比例。

Mike, just to add on one data point that Mike mentioned just, I think, emphasize on the growth. Four out of the last five years as a company overall, we've had double-digit net written premium growth. And the one year, we didn't was at 9.5%. So that -- that is certainly, as Mike pointed out, that's helping the cause.

麥克，我只是想補充一下麥克提到的一個數據點，我認為，重點強調成長。就整個公司而言，過去五年中有四年我們的淨承保保費都實現了兩位數的成長。有一年我們沒有這樣做，利率是 9.5%。所以 — — 正如邁克指出的那樣，這肯定是有幫助的。

Okay, got it. I'm sorry, that was Mike in the prepared remarks that made the expense ratio comment. So our operating leverage is the key. Got it. Pivoting to just maybe a dual question on commercial lines. The accident-year loss ratio in work comp appears to be picked at a much higher level than in recent quarters and years? Anything going on there?

好的，明白了。抱歉，這是麥克在準備好的發言中對費用比率做出的評論。因此我們的經營槓桿是關鍵。知道了。或許只是轉向商業方面的雙重問題。工傷賠償中的事故年損失率似乎比最近幾季和幾年高得多？那裡發生什麼事了嗎？

And then I know you guys addressed some of the unfavorable, but commercial auto continues to be a hotspot for you all, and I feel like for many in the industry as well. So any additional comments you'd like to make on commercial auto as well.

我知道你們已經解決了一些不利的問題，但商用汽車仍然是你們大家關注的熱點，我覺得對於業內許多人來說也是如此。那麼，您還想對商用汽車提出什麼其他評論嗎？

Sure. On work comp, and Mike may want to add something as well. I would just say, again, it's just -- it's a long tail line. It's just our prudent approach there that we've talked about in the past. On commercial auto, it's along the lines still kind of what I was saying too on Mike Phillips' question earlier is, it's just -- we are seeing -- I think the industry, that's pretty well documented and we as well. We're seeing more attorney involvement in auto accidents.

當然。關於工傷賠償，麥克可能也想補充一些內容。我再說一遍，這只是——這是一條長尾線。這只是我們過去談論過的謹慎做法。關於商用車，我之前在回答 Mike Phillips 的問題時也提到過，這只是 — — 我們看到 — — 我認為這個行業已經有了充分的記錄，我們也是如此。我們看到越來越多的律師介入車禍案件。

So I think that, social inflation, legal system abuse, however you want to put it, that's putting some pressure on that. But again, I kind of move up a layer and just look from quarter to quarter what our actuaries do when they see something and how quickly they act and how that's just served us well over time. And I think that's what you've got going on here in commercial auto as well. As a matter of fact, the most recent accident years, '24 and '25, in case incurred - paid and case -- look really good right now, and you can see that. So -- but we're adding IBNR to it.

所以我認為，社會通膨、法律制度濫用，無論你怎麼表達，都會對此施加一些壓力。但是，我再次向上移動一層，逐個季度地觀察我們的精算師在發現問題時會做什麼、他們行動的速度有多快，以及這些措施如何長期有效地為我們服務。我認為這也是你們在商用汽車領域所做的事情。事實上，最近兩年的事故發生率（24 年和 25 年）看起來都很好，這一點您也看到了。所以 — — 但我們正在向其中添加 IBNR。

We're being prudent. There's uncertainty. And so as you have come to expect from us, I think we're taking the appropriate action.

我們很謹慎。存在不確定性。正如你們對我們的期望，我認為我們正在採取適當的行動。

So on workers comp, just as a follow-up, that's a big change in the pick. So one of your peers who also has a lot of contractors has maybe said that frequencies become less of a good guy. Just anything there?

因此，就工人補償而言，作為後續行動，這是一個很大的變化。因此，您的一位擁有大量承包商的同事可能說過，頻率變得不那麼好。那裡有什麼東西嗎？

Yeah, no, I can't say we've seen anything different in the way of frequency there, Mike. But as you know, yeah, our commercial book is -- we write a lot of construction. But if you look at our workers' compensation premiums as a total of our commercial, it's just -- it's like it's 6% to 8% of our total commercial lines business. So that probably has a little less impact than maybe some of the peers that you follow.

是的，不，我不能說我們在那裡看到了頻率上的任何不同，麥克。但正如你所知，是的，我們的商業書籍是——我們寫了很多建築材料。但是，如果你將我們的工人賠償保險費視為我們商業保險總額，那麼它就只占我們商業保險業務總額的 6% 到 8%。因此，這可能比您關注的一些同行的影響要小一些。

Greg Peters, Raymond James.

格雷格彼得斯、雷蒙詹姆斯。

Let's pivot over to the personal lines business. And you called out in your script and in the release some changes that are happening inside your Private Client business. Maybe you can give us an idea where, as this reset continues, where it's going to -- where the final resting spot is, if you will, in terms of your expectations on exposures in California and elsewhere?

讓我們轉向個人險業務。您在腳本和發布中提到了私人客戶業務內部正在發生的一些變化。也許您可以告訴我們，隨著這種重置的繼續，它將走向何方——就您對加利福尼亞州和其他地方的風險敞口的預期而言，最終的安息地在哪裡？

Yeah, sure. Thanks, Greg, appreciate it. First thing I would say is I feel confident in saying we'll do everything we can to support our California agents and policyholders. And as I mentioned then, since the wildfires occurred in the first quarter, like we do on any large loss, individual event or catastrophe. We do a deep dive and objectively look at any lessons learned.

是的，當然。謝謝，格雷格，非常感謝。首先我想說的是，我可以自信地說，我們將竭盡全力支持我們的加州代理商和保單持有人。正如我當時提到的，由於第一季發生了野火，就像我們處理任何重大損失、個別事件或災難一樣。我們深入研究並客觀地看待所學到的任何經驗教訓。

I think it's fair to say that we've got lessons learned out of California, and we're already implementing some of those actions right now. Without getting into a lot of detail, I would say you can -- again, it's fair to say or safe to say, it's around model recalibration, around aggregation and just our view of risk.

我認為可以說我們從加州吸取了教訓，並且我們現在已經在實施其中的一些行動。無需贅述，我想說你可以——再說一次，公平地說或可以肯定地說，這涉及模型重新校準、聚合以及我們對風險的看法。

So again, I feel confident that we're going to be able to do everything we can to support a lot of great California policyholders we have and the great agency plant that we have there.

因此，我再次充滿信心，我們將竭盡全力支持我們擁有的眾多優秀的加州保單持有人和我們在那裡擁有的優秀代理機構。

Related to that, you talked about the reinstatement costs going through your personal lines business after recoveries. Curious on the recovery piece. Did you sell your subro rights or where -- because a portion of that fire looks like it's going to rest with some of the liability rests with the utility.

與此相關，您談到了恢復後透過個人險業務產生的恢復成本。對恢復部分感到好奇。您是否出售了您的 subro 權利或在哪裡出售——因為這場火災的一部分看起來將由公用事業公司承擔部分責任。

Yeah. I would just answer that, that we have not sold our subro rights.

是的。我只想回答，我們還沒有出售我們的 subro 權利。

Got it. Okay. In your prepared remarks, you talked about some changes to -- or some additional reinsurance you bought, and can we go back to your comments on the reinsurance? And I guess the reason why I'm asking is just trying to put all the pieces together as we go into the hurricane season and what I should think about the potential per event exposure your company might have? Because it sounds like you bought some additional cover to raise the -- extend the tower.

知道了。好的。在您準備好的演講中，您談到了一些變化 - 或者您購買的一些額外的再保險，我們可以回到您對再保險的評論嗎？我想我之所以問這個問題，只是想在颶風季節來臨之際把所有因素綜合起來，看看貴公司在每次颶風事件中可能面臨什麼樣的潛在風險？因為這聽起來就像你買了一些額外的蓋子來升高——延伸塔。

Just give us a -- remind me of the summary version of what's going on there.

只需給我們一個——提醒我那裡發生的事情的摘要版本。

Yeah, absolutely. Again, Steve Spray. So what we did is we purchased -- at 7-1, we purchased an additional $300 million, ex of $1.5 billion, on top of the property cat reinsurance program, very consistent with our approach when we look at the property cat reinsurance, the way we approach that is for balance sheet protection. We just felt with the growth that we've talked about here this morning, good growth that it was prudent, especially in this marketplace where we thought it was attractive to go out and try to purchase some more on top.

是的，絕對是如此。再次，史蒂夫·斯普雷。因此，我們所做的就是購買——以 7-1 的比例，我們在財產巨額再保險計劃的基礎上額外購買了 3 億美元（前 15 億美元），這與我們研究財產巨額再保險時的方法非常一致，我們採用這種方法是為了保護資產負債表。我們只是覺得，根據我們今天早上討論的成長，良好的成長是謹慎的，特別是在這個市場中，我們認為出去嘗試購買更多的東西是有吸引力的。

We went out -- it's a subscription market. So we went out with a -- I think, with an aggressive rate. I think we filled, we said $129 million of the $300 million or 43% of it. So that's kind of the story there.

我們走出去——這是一個訂閱市場。因此，我們採取了——我認為，是採取了積極的態度。我認為我們已經填補了 3 億美元中的 1.29 億美元，即 43%。這就是那裡的故事。

And then on California, on the primary business, we -- as it stands now, we've used about half of that property cat, the $1.5 billion pre -- excuse me, 7-1, and reinstated those layers. So those layers are there for the remainder of the year.

然後在加州，在主要業務方面，就目前情況而言，我們已經使用了大約一半的財產險，即 15 億美元的預付 — — 對不起，7-1，並恢復了這些層級。因此這些層在一年剩餘的時間裡都會存在。

And just -- and then that's for just the California piece. What's your net -- can you remind me what your net retention is on just the hurricane risk when you think about Southeast and Gulf Coast exposures on a per-event basis? And just one other, I assume on the cat bond the additional layer you bought that, you said subscription, so that wasn't done through wasn't done through the cat bond market, correct? That was done traditional risk transfer?

這只是關於加利福尼亞州的部分。您的淨額是多少——當您考慮東南和墨西哥灣沿岸每次事件的風險暴露時，您能否提醒我，僅就颶風風險而言，您的淨保留額是多少？另外，我假設您在巨災債券上購買了附加層，您說的是認購，所以這不是透過巨災債券市場完成的，對嗎？這是傳統的風險轉移嗎？

Yeah, that was traditional reinsurance on the 300 ex of $1.5 billion. And then on the -- yeah. So you had mentioned, you were kind of bifurcating wildfire and hurricane, the property, it's an all -- yeah, it's an all-perils contract, Greg, and we have a $300 million retention on that. So whether it's wildfire, whether it's severe convective storm, earthquake, or hurricane as an example, we have a $300 million retention, but those perils all apply to that property cat treaty.

是的，這是 300 家公司 15 億美元的傳統再保險。然後——是的。所以你提到過，你把野火和颶風分開了，財產，這是一個全險合同，是的，格雷格，我們對此有 3 億美元的保留。因此，無論是野火、強對流風暴、地震或颶風，我們都有 3 億美元的保留金，但這些危險都適用於該財產保險條約。

Jing Li, KBW.

李靜，KBW。

This is Jing on for Meyer. My first question is just a follow-up on the loss trend. Have you observed any issue in loss trend that you can call out either upward or downward over the recent period? Now any color you can add would be great.

這是 Meyer 的 Jing on。我的第一個問題只是對損失趨勢的後續觀察。您是否觀察到最近一段時間內虧損趨勢中可以向上或向下顯示的問題？現在您可以添加任何顏色，效果會很好。

Yeah, no. I don't think that we have anything to report back on any change in the loss trend up or down during the quarter. But thank you for the question.

是的，不。我認為我們沒有任何可以報告的關於本季虧損趨勢上升或下降的變化。但感謝您的提問。

Got it. My second question is on the growth to commercial properties still have decent returns. Property rate now softens and casualty rates accelerate. How do you view the relative growth prospects between property and casualty?

知道了。我的第二個問題是商業不動產的成長是否仍能帶來可觀的回報。房地產利率目前走軟，傷亡率則加速上升。您如何看待財產險和意外險的相對成長前景？

Yeah, sure. We're a package writer as a company, and we work with our agents. The other thing I think you're hearing a lot in the marketplace about a softening property market. And we're seeing that too on really large properties. We're seeing it probably most prevalently in our Lloyd's syndicate and CGU out of London.

是的，當然。我們是一家包裹撰寫公司，我們與代理商合作。另一件事我想大家在市場上常聽到的就是房地產市場疲軟的消息。我們在大型地產上也看到了這種情況。我們最常看到的可能是我們位於倫敦的勞合社辛迪加和現金產出單位 (CGU) 的情況。

They do a lot of direct and fac, shared and layered business. So that's, that business, we're seeing some pressure on. But our small to middle market commercial package business and commercial property business, we're still seeing healthy rate there. And I think that's because the things that you see when you turn the TV on at night, severe convective storms haven't let up, so that's keeping pressure on property. Social inflation, legal system abuse, that's keeping pressure on general liability, umbrella as well as auto liability.

他們做了很多直接、面對面、分享和分層的業務。所以，我們看到這項業務面臨一些壓力。但我們的中小型市場商業套餐業務和商業房地產業務仍然保持著健康的成長率。我認為這是因為當你晚上打開電視時看到的景像是，強烈的對流風暴還沒有減弱，所以這對財產造成了持續的壓力。社會通膨、法律制度濫用，這些都給一般責任險、綜合責任險以及汽車責任險帶來了壓力。

So we're still seeing healthy net rate for our mix of business and what we do.

因此，我們仍然看到我們的業務組合和我們所做的事情的淨利率是健康的。

Josh Shanker, Bank of America.

美國銀行的喬希·尚克（Josh Shanker）。

First of all, looking at the growth, particularly in commercial, among other companies that reported, I think you're the first company to report accelerating growth in the second quarter versus the first quarter. I don't know if that's a trend. But can you talk about what you're doing?

首先，從成長情況來看，特別是在商業領域，在其他報告的公司中，我認為你們是第一家報告第二季度相對於第一季成長加速的公司。我不知道這是否是一種趨勢。但是你能談談你在做什麼嗎？

Is this taking a larger share in agencies that you already have? Is this the newer agencies you've appointed? Is this lines of business that you are finding you can underwrite now because you didn't have that capability in the past?

這是否會佔用您現有代理商的更大份額？這是您任命的新機構嗎？您是否發現現在可以承保這些業務，因為您過去沒有這種能力？

Yeah. Thank you, Josh. I think it's -- everything we do around here is an and strategy. So I think it's all of the above. We've got such deep relationships with all the agents we do business with.

是的。謝謝你，喬希。我認為——我們在這裡所做的一切都是一種策略。所以我認為以上都是原因。我們與所有合作的代理商都建立了深厚的關係。

But you're right. We've been adding high-quality agencies at a faster clip. There's no doubt that, that is certainly accelerating both the net written premium growth as well as our new business. Our E&S company continues to grow. We've added five new products at Lloyd's that we, just for agents a Cincinnati Insurance company as they come through our in-house broker, C-SUPR. So I think we just have a lot of -- we have a lot of good momentum with our agents. We keep focused on what we do well, Josh, blocking and tackling, one account at a time, calling on agents, doing business face to face. It just all really goes to it, and it has just been continuing to pick up momentum.

但你是對的。我們一直在以更快的速度增加高品質的代理商。毫無疑問，這無疑加速了淨承保保費的成長以及我們的新業務。我們的 E&S 公司繼續發展。我們在勞合社增加了五種新產品，這些產品僅針對通過我們的內部經紀人 C-SUPR 的辛辛那提保險公司的代理商。所以我認為我們與代理商之間有著許多良好的發展勢頭。我們一直專注於我們擅長的事情，喬希，阻止和解決，一次一個帳戶，拜訪代理商，面對面做生意。一切都按計劃順利進行，而且勢頭持續增強。

And pivoting to reinsurance, you bought more obviously, and you sold less. Can you talk about what your inbound reinsurance strategy is going to be going forward? And two, if we replayed 1Q '25, has anything changed about your exposures that you have a different outcome?

而轉向再保險，你顯然買更多，賣出更少。能談談您未來的入境再保險策略嗎？第二，如果我們重演 2025 年第一季的情況，您的曝光情況是否發生了變化，導致結果有所不同？

Okay. On Cincinnati Re, first thing I would say is they are executing exactly as we want them to. It's an assumed model, an allocated capital model. They're seeing pricing in the marketplace that they don't feel, from their view of risk, is where they want it to be. So they've pulled back, underwriting discipline.

好的。關於辛辛那提再保險公司，我首先要說的是，他們正在按照我們的意願執行。這是一個假設模型，一個分配資本模型。從風險角度來看，他們認為市場上的定價並不在他們想要的水平。因此他們撤退了，以確保紀律。

About half of the, I guess, the pullback is coming from property, and the other half is coming from casualty. So pretty balanced. But their inception-to-date combined ratio, which is what we focus most on, Josh, is 95.2. That's on about $3.5 billion of premium. So they're executing exactly the way we designed from the get-go and the way that we plan on doing it going forward as well.

我猜，大約一半的回檔來自房地產，另一半來自意外傷害。非常平衡。但他們成立至今的綜合成本率，也就是我們最關注的，喬希，是95.2，這是基於約35億美元的保費。因此，他們從一開始就完全按照我們設計的方式執行，也按照我們計劃的未來方式執行。

And when we feel that things are opportunistic, they'll grow it. And if we don't feel we can get the risk-adjusted return, then there may be some quarters when they when they back off.

當我們覺得事情有機會時，它們就會發展。如果我們感覺無法獲得風險調整後的回報，那麼他們可能會在某些季度退出。

Is the shape of the portfolio today notably different than it was six months ago such that the California wildfires would have a different result?

今天的投資組合形態與六個月前相比是否有明顯不同，以至於加州野火會產生不同的結果？

No, not at this point. If you're talking about the primary business, I think, on the homeowner (multiple speakers)

不，目前還不行。如果你談論的是主要業務，我認為，在房主身上（多位發言者）

Selling less and buying more.

賣得少，買很多。

Yeah, I would say right now for the last six months, it'd be little changed.

是的，我想說，在過去的六個月裡，情況幾乎沒有改變。

(Operator Instructions) We have a follow-up question from the line of Mike Zaremski with BMO.

（操作員指示）我們收到了 BMO 的 Mike Zaremski 的後續問題。

Back to the competitive marketplace commentary, on the property market specifically, you mentioned that your colleagues in the Lloyd's syndicate and CGU are seeing meaningful competitive pressures there in property. Do you or they have a view on assuming a normal, I guess, weather season, whether like the rate of decline should dissipate? Or do you have any kind of forward-looking view on whether this level of competition kind of makes sense and just profits are becoming less healthy? Or is it irrational?

回到競爭性市場評論，具體到房地產市場，您提到勞合社辛迪加和現金產出單元的同事看到房地產市場有顯著的競爭壓力。您或他們是否認為，假設天氣季節正常，下降率是否應該會消散？或者您對這種程度的競爭是否有意義以及利潤是否變得不那麼健康有任何前瞻性的看法？或者說這是不合理的？

Yeah. I don't know if I -- there's a lot of capacity that's come in. A lot of capital has come into that space, Mike. I don't know if I would be able to opine on going forward. I would say that, again, the discipline and you look at the results we've gotten out of CGU, just a ton of confidence in the way they're underwriting all lines of business. But for what we're talking about here, direct and fac.

是的。我不知道是否——已經有大量產能進入。大量資本已經進入該領域，麥克。我不知道我是否能夠對未來做出評論。我想說的是，再次強調，從紀律和我們從 CGU 獲得的結果來看，我們對他們承保所有業務的方式充滿信心。但就我們在此討論的內容而言，直接且正面。

And the other thing that CGU has been doing since inception is just they've really reshaped that book, too. We've diversifying both geographically and then by product line has been quite impressive, and I think that's going to bode well for us into the future. And that's a big reason why you saw the growth that we've seen at CGU here in the first half of the year.

自成立以來，CGU 一直在做的另一件事就是他們也徹底重塑了這本書。我們在地域和產品線方面的多元化發展令人印象深刻，我認為這對我們的未來來說是一個好兆頭。這也是為什麼我們今年上半年看到 CGU 成長的一個重要原因。

Got it. And as a follow-up, back to the competitive environment on the core package part of your portfolio. I think you painted a picture of -- it's a lot of things, but ultimately, there's just -- there's a good amount of inflation in the system between weather and social, et cetera. So it sounds like you're -- you don't feel like we're going to enter a soft marketplace. I guess the -- some of the data points and some of the investors are voting that there is the potential for a soft market.

知道了。作為後續行動，回到您的投資組合的核心包部分的競爭環境。我認為你描繪了一幅圖景——它包含很多東西，但最終，只是——在天氣、社會等因素之間，系統中存在著相當大的通貨膨脹。所以聽起來你——你不覺得我們會進入一個疲軟的市場。我猜想，一些數據點和一些投資者都認為市場有可能疲軟。

And I think it's just off the backs of carrier profitability being being excellent, which is also intertwined with interest rates. So any additional comments you want to make in terms of just kind of why the SME market probably would be less likely to follow the pace of what you're seeing in the syndicated kind of property market?

我認為這只是因為營運商的獲利能力非常出色，而且也與利率息息相關。那麼，您還有什麼要補充的嗎？為什麼中小企業市場可能不太可能跟上您在聯合房地產市場中看到的步伐？

Yeah. The only thing I would -- the only thing I would say there is, I'll speak for Cincinnati Insurance Company in my 34 years here. I think the concept of a rising or lowering tide raising or lowering all boats for us, it's just -- it's not in the dialogue. It's risk by risk. It is using the subjective, art, I guess, you could say, of underwriting both for our new business field underwriters out in the field working with our agents face to face, looking at the risks, and then the same thing with our renewal underwriters.

是的。我唯一想說的是，我在這裡的 34 年裡，我將代表辛辛那提保險公司發言。我認為潮水漲落會使所有船隻都上升或下降的概念對我們來說只是——它不在對話中。風險接踵而至。我想，你可以說，它運用主觀的、藝術性的承保方式，既為我們新業務領域的承保人進行承保，也為我們在現場的代理商面對面地工作、研究風險，然後對我們的續保承保人進行同樣的事情。

And then I'll go back to kind of what we talked about earlier. It's risk by risk when it comes to pricing. And we're using sophisticated tools. We are using our actuarial team and the data and the pricing precision to segment our book and if you look at our Commercial Lines results, the price adequacy will follow those results.

然後我會回到我們之前討論過的內容。當談到定價時，風險就隨之而來。我們正在使用先進的工具。我們正在利用我們的精算團隊、數據和定價精度來細分我們的帳簿，如果你查看我們的商業險結果，就會發現價格充分性將遵循這些結果。

And the pricing in that commercial book we feel pretty good right now. And so that's what's -- that's probably what's putting pressure a little bit on the net rate change. That being said, you can still see we're getting good rate through there for all the reasons I think you mentioned: social inflation, weather, along those lines. But I just -- I'm not saying that other carriers aren't going to have a different view of a risk.

目前，我們認為該商業書籍的定價相當不錯。這可能就是對淨利率變動造成一定壓力的原因。話雖如此，您仍然可以看到，由於您提到的所有原因，我們獲得了良好的利率：社會通膨、天氣等等。但我只是——我並不是說其他運營商不會對風險有不同的看法。

And if they do, we're just so confident in the way we're pricing and the way we're underwriting that we'll have to make a decision risk by risk. If somebody takes a different view and it's considerably less than ours or where we don't think we can make a risk-adjusted return. Then we're walking away. And we've been executing on that. I just have to give a shout out to our underwriters and our field reps.

如果他們真的這麼做了，我們對我們的定價方式和核保方式非常有信心，我們必須根據風險做出決策。如果有人持有不同的觀點，而其金額遠低於我們的觀點，或者我們認為我們無法獲得風險調整後的回報。然後我們就走開。我們一直在執行這個目標。我只想向我們的承銷商和現場代表大聲呼喊。

They have been executing on that, working with our agents beautifully now for candidly, the last 12 or 13 years. So -- but adding agencies, continuing to build out our E&S operations, continuing to give our agents more access to Lloyd's, more efficient, more effective access to Lloyd's, growing personal lines, getting it profitable, just feel really good about where we are and where we're heading. We're going to stay focused.

坦白說，過去 12、13 年來，他們一直在執行這一目標，與我們的代理商保持著良好的合作。所以——但是增加代理機構，繼續擴大我們的 E&S 業務，繼續讓我們的代理商更多地訪問勞合社，更有效率、更有效地訪問勞合社，發展個人業務，使其盈利，我們對我們所處的位置和未來發展方向感到非常滿意。我們會保持專注。

This concludes our question-and-answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to Steve Spray for any closing remarks.

我們的問答環節到此結束。我想將會議交還給史蒂夫·斯普雷 (Steve Spray) 做最後發言。

Thank you, Dorwin, and thank you all for joining us today. We look forward to speaking with you again on our third quarter call.

謝謝你，多爾溫，也謝謝大家今天加入我們。我們期待在第三季電話會議上再次與您交談。

Thank you. The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.

謝謝。會議現已結束。感謝您參加今天的演講。您現在可以斷開連線。