辛辛納提金融 (CINF) 2024 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good morning and welcome to the Cincinnati Financial fourth-quarter and full-year 2024 earnings conference call.

早安，歡迎參加辛辛那提金融 2024 年第四季和全年財報電話會議。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員指令）

Please note this event is being recorded.

請注意，該事件正在被記錄。

I would now like to turn the conference over to Dennis McDaniel, Investor Relations Officer. Please go ahead.

現在，我想將會議交給投資者關係官丹尼斯·麥克丹尼爾 (Dennis McDaniel)。請繼續。

Hello. This is Dennis McDaniel at Cincinnati Financial.

你好。我是辛辛那提金融公司的丹尼斯·麥克丹尼爾。

Thank you for joining us for our fourth-quarter and full-year 2024 earnings conference call.

感謝您參加我們的 2024 年第四季和全年財報電話會議。

Late yesterday, we issued a news release on our results along with our supplemental financial package, including our year-end investment portfolio. To find copies of any of these documents, please visit our investor website, investors.cinfin.com. The shortest route to the information is the quarterly results section near the middle of the Investor Overview page.

昨天晚些時候，我們發布了一份有關我們的業績的新聞稿以及我們的補充財務方案，其中包括我們的年終投資組合。若要尋找這些文件的副本，請造訪我們的投資者網站 investor.cinfin.com。獲取該資訊的最短路徑是位於「投資者概覽」頁面中間附近的季度業績部分。

On this call, you'll first hear from President and Chief Executive Officer, Steve Spray; and then from Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Mike Sewell.

在本次電話會議中，您首先會聽到總裁兼執行長史蒂夫·斯普雷 (Steve Spray) 的發言；接下來是執行副總裁兼財務長 Mike Sewell。

After their prepared remarks, investors participating on the call may ask questions. At that time, some responses may be made by others in the room with us, including Executive Chairman, Steve Johnston; Chief Investment Officer, Steve Soloria; and Cincinnati Insurance's Chief Claims Officer, Marc Schambow; Senior Vice President of Corporate Finance, Theresa Hoffer.

在發表準備好的發言後，參加電話會議的投資人可以提出問題。屆時，我們在場的其他人可能會做出一些回應，包括執行主席史蒂夫·約翰斯頓 (Steve Johnston)；首席投資長 Steve Soloria；以及辛辛那提保險公司的首席理賠長馬克‧沙姆博 (Marc Schambow)；公司財務資深副總裁 Theresa Hoffer。

Please note that some of the matters to be discussed today are forward-looking. These forward-looking statements involve certain risks and uncertainties. With respect to these risks and uncertainties, we direct your attention to our news release and to our various filings with the SEC. Also, a reconciliation of non-GAAP measures was provided with the news release. Statutory accounting data is prepared in accordance with statutory accounting rules and therefore is not reconciled the GAAP.

請注意，今天討論的一些事項是前瞻性的。這些前瞻性陳述涉及一定的風險和不確定性。對於這些風險和不確定性，我們請您關注我們的新聞稿和我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的各種文件。此外，新聞稿中還提供了非公認會計準則 (GAAP) 指標的對帳表。法定會計數據是根據法定會計規則編制的，因此與 GAAP 不一致。

Now, I'll turn over the call to Steve.

現在，我將把電話轉給史蒂夫。

Good morning, and thank you for joining us today to hear more about our results.

早安，感謝您今天加入我們，了解我們的更多成果。

Our hearts go out to those impacted by the LA wildfires. You've lost homes, treasured belongings, a sense of community and, in the most devastating cases, loved ones. I also want to thank the first responders who put their lives on the line, our agents for their support and partnership and, of course, our claims associates who are working tirelessly to help our policyholders with immediate needs and longer-term plans.

我們向那些受到洛杉磯山火影響的人們表達深切慰問。你們失去了家園、珍貴的財產、社區意識，最悲慘的是，還失去了親人。我還要感謝那些冒著生命危險的急救人員、我們的代理人的支持和合作，當然還有我們的理賠助理，他們不知疲倦地幫助我們的保單持有人滿足眼前需求並製定長期計劃。

Before I share more details about our current estimate for this catastrophe, let's dive into how we performed last year. Operating performance for the fourth quarter was very strong, and many key areas showed improvements. We are also pleased with performance for full-year 2024, thanks to the superb work of our associates providing service to agents who we consider to be the best in the insurance business.

在我分享有關我們對這場災難的當前估計的更多細節之前，讓我們先深入了解我們去年的表現。第四季的營運表現非常強勁，許多關鍵領域都取得了改善。我們對 2024 年全年的業績也感到滿意，這要歸功於我們的員工的出色工作，他們為我們認為是保險業中最好的代理商提供服務。

Our fourth-quarter results compared to the same period last year included a better combined ratio and excellent growth in premiums and investment income. The result boosted net income, and we had double-digit growth in operating income. Net income was $405 million for the fourth quarter of 2024. It included recognition of $107 million on an after-tax basis for the decrease in fair value of equity securities still held, an unfavorable swing of $931 million from the same period a year ago. Net income for the year rose 24%. Non-GAAP operating income for the quarter increased 38% to $497 million and rose 26% for full-year 2024. Our 84.7% fourth-quarter 2024 property casualty combined ratio was 2.8 percentage points better than a year ago.

與去年同期相比，我們第四季的業績包括綜合成本率的改善以及保費和投資收益的出色成長。這一結果提高了淨收入，並且我們的營業收入實現了兩位數的成長。2024 年第四季淨收入為 4.05 億美元。其中包括因仍持有的股權證券公允價值下降而確認的稅後 1.07 億美元，與去年同期相比出現 9.31 億美元的不利變化。全年淨收入成長24%。本季非公認會計準則營業收入成長 38% 至 4.97 億美元，2024 年全年成長 26%。我們的 2024 年第四季財產意外險綜合賠付率為 84.7%，比去年同期下降了 2.8 個百分點。

It brought the full-year combined ratio to an outstanding 93.4%, 1.5 points better than 2023. The full-year improvement included a catastrophe loss ratio effect only 0.2 points lower. Our 86.5% accident year 2024 combined ratio before catastrophe losses improved by 1.9 percentage points compared with accident year 2023, including 5 points of improvement for the fourth quarter.

這使得全年綜合成本率達到出色的 93.4%，比 2023 年高出 1.5 個百分點。全年改善中巨災損失率的影響僅下降了 0.2 個百分點。2024 年事故年度，災難損失前的綜合賠付率為 86.5%，與 2023 年事故年度相比提高了 1.9 個百分點，其中第四季度提高了 5 個百分點。

We reported another quarter of strong premium growth. We believe it's profitable growth as our underwriters diligently use pricing precision tools to support their risk segmentation efforts on a policy-by-policy basis. Estimated average renewal price increases for the fourth quarter were similar to the third quarter of 2024.

我們報告稱，本季保費成長強勁。我們相信，這是一種獲利性成長，因為我們的承保人勤勉地使用定價精準工具來支援他們根據每項保單進行風險細分的工作。預計第四季平均續訂價格漲幅與 2024 年第三季相似。

Commercial lines moved slightly lower in the high-single-digit percentage range, and excess and surplus lines remained in the high-single-digit range. Our personal line segment was also similar to the third quarter, with personal auto in the low double digit range and homeowner in the high-single-digit range.

商業險種略有下降，降幅達高個位數百分比範圍，超額險種和盈餘險種仍維持在高個位數範圍。我們的個人險部分也與第三季相似，個人汽車險處於低兩位數範圍，房主險處於高個位數範圍。

New business growth produced by agencies representing Cincinnati Insurance continued at a nice pace. Nearly one-third of the growth for the year was from agencies appointed since the beginning of 2023, reflecting our strategy of appointing additional agencies where we identify appropriate expansion opportunities.

辛辛那提保險的代理機構的新業務繼續保持良好的成長速度。今年近三分之一的成長來自 2023 年初以來任命的代理機構，這反映了我們在發現合適的擴張機會時任命更多代理商的策略。

Policy retention rates in 2024 were similar to last year, with our commercial line segment up slightly but still in the upper-80% range. Our personal line segment remained in a similar position of the low- to mid- 90% range.

2024 年的保單留存率與去年相似，我們的商業險保單部分略有上漲，但仍在 80% 以上的範圍內。我們的個人線段仍保持在 90% 至 90% 中段的類似位置。

The overall result was consolidated property casualty net written premiums growing 17% for the quarter, including 15% growth in agency renewal premiums and 23% in new business premiums.

整體結果是，本季合併財產風險淨承保保費成長 17%，其中代理續保保費成長 15%，新業務保費成長 23%。

Next is a brief review of performance by insurance segment for full-year 2024 compared with 2023. Most metrics also improved on a fourth-quarter basis. Commercial lines grew net written premiums 8%, with an excellent combined ratio that improved by 3 percentage points to 93.2%. Personal lines grew net written premiums 30% and improved the combined ratio by 2.9 percentage points to 97.5%. Excess and surplus lines grew net written premiums 15% with a 94.0% combined ratio. Although that was 3.4 percentage points higher than last year, it's still quite profitable.

接下來是 2024 年全年保險部門業績與 2023 年業績進行比較的簡要回顧。大多數指標在第四季也有所改善。商業險淨承保保費成長 8%，綜合成本率優良，改善了 3 個百分點，達到 93.2%。個人險淨承保保費成長 30%，綜合成本率改善 2.9 個百分點，至 97.5%。超額和剩餘險種的淨承保保費增加了 15%，綜合成本率為 94.0%。雖然比去年高了3.4個百分點，但利潤還是比較大的。

Both Cincinnati Re and Cincinnati Global were also very profitable. Cincinnati Re grew net written premiums 7%, with an 85.0% combined ratio, while Cincinnati Global's growth was 8% with a 73.6% combined ratio. Our life insurance subsidiary also improved its results, with a 21% increase in 2024 net income and term life insurance earned premium growth of 3%.

辛辛那提再保險公司和辛辛那提全球保險公司的利潤也都非常豐厚。辛辛那提再保險公司淨承保保費成長 7%，綜合成本率為 85.0%，而辛辛那提全球保險公司淨承保保費成長 8%，綜合成本率為 73.6%。我們的人壽保險子公司的業績也有所改善，2024 年淨收入成長 21%，定期壽險保費成長 3%。

These strong results combined to bring our value creation ratio in above our target of 10% to 13% on a five-year average basis. Our fourth-quarter VCR was 1.8%, and we reached 19.8% on a full-year basis. Net income before investment gains or losses for the year contributed 9.9%. Higher overall valuation of our investment portfolio and other items contributed the other half.

這些強勁的業績使我們的價值創造率超過了五年平均值 10% 至 13% 的目標。我們第四季的VCR為1.8%，全年達到了19.8%。全年投資損益前淨利貢獻率為 9.9%。我們投資組合和其他項目的整體估值較高，貢獻了另一半。

Before I turn the call over to Mike, I'll provide our current estimates of financial effects related to the recent California wildfires and an update on our 2025 reinsurance program. We estimate first-quarter 2025 pretax catastrophe losses of approximately $450 million to $525 million net of reinsurance recoveries.

在將電話轉給麥克之前，我將提供我們對最近加州野火造成的財務影響的最新估計以及我們 2025 年再保險計劃的最新情況。我們估計，2025 年第一季稅前巨災損失（扣除再保險追償）約為 4.5 億美元至 5.25 億美元。

That includes approximately 73% for our personal lines insurance segment, 24% for Cincinnati Re, and 3% for Cincinnati Global. We reinstated the applicable layers of our primary property catastrophe reinsurance treaty coverage and will cede additional premiums to our reinsurers.

其中包括個人保險部門約 73%、辛辛那提再保險公司約 24% 和辛辛那提全球保險公司約 3%。我們恢復了主要財產巨災再保險條約承保範圍的適用層級，並將額外保費轉移給我們的再保險公司。

Cincinnati Re will receive additional premiums from treaties reinstated. The estimated net effect of first quarter premium revenue is a decrease of $50 million to $60 million. To keep this event in perspective, had the wildfire effect occurred in 2024, we believe we would still have earned a modest underwriting profit. On January 1 of this year, we again renewed each of our primary property casualty treaties that transfer part of our risk to reinsurers.

辛辛那提再保險公司將從恢復的保險條約中獲得額外保費。第一季保費收入的預期淨效應是減少 5,000 萬美元至 6,000 萬美元。從整體來看，如果野火效應發生在 2024 年，我們相信我們仍然會獲得適度的承保利潤。今年 1 月 1 日，我們再次續約了每項主要財產意外險合同，將部分風險轉移給再保險公司。

For our per-risk treaties, we increased our retention for the property treaty to $15 million while retention for the casualty treaty remained at $10 million. Other terms and conditions for 2025 are fairly similar to 2024. The primary objective for our property catastrophe treaty is to protect our balance sheet. The treaty's main change this year is adding another $300 million of coverage, increasing the top of the program from $1.2 billion to $1.5 billion.

對於我們的每項風險合約，我們將財產合約的保留金增加至 1500 萬美元，而傷亡合約的保留金仍為 1000 萬美元。2025 年的其他條款和條件與 2024 年非常相似。我們財產災難條約的主要目標是保護我們的資產負債表。該條約今年的主要變化是增加了 3 億美元的保險金額，使計劃最高金額從 12 億美元增加到 15 億美元。

We again retain all of the first $200 million, then retain 56% of the next $100 million, 25% of the next $100 million and approximately 14% of the next $1.1 billion.

我們再次保留前 2 億美元的全部，然後保留接下來 1 億美元的 56%、接下來 1 億美元的 25% 以及接下來 11 億美元的約 14%。

Now let me turn the call over to Chief Financial Officer, Mike Sewell, for additional highlights of our financial performance.

現在，讓我將電話轉給財務長 Mike Sewell，以了解更多有關我們財務業績的亮點。

Thank you, Steve, and thanks to all of you for joining us today. Investment income reached $1 billion for the year and significantly contributed to our improved operating performance. It grew 17% for the fourth quarter and 15% for the full-year 2024 compared with the same periods of last year.

謝謝你，史蒂夫，也謝謝大家今天的參與。全年投資收益達10億美元，為我們提升經營績效做出了重大貢獻。與去年同期相比，第四季成長了 17%，2024 年全年成長了 15%。

Dividend income was down 4% in the fourth quarter, driven by third-quarter sales of equity securities from previously disclosed rebalancing of our investment portfolio. Bond interest income grew 28% for the fourth quarter this year. Net purchases of fixed-maturity securities totaled $1.1 billion for the quarter and $2.5 billion for the year.

第四季股利收入下降 4%，主要原因是第三季出售了先前揭露的投資組合重新平衡所產生的股權證券。今年第四季債券利息收入成長28%。本季固定期限證券的淨購買總額為 11 億美元，全年為 25 億美元。

The fourth-quarter pretax average yield of 4.93% for the fixed-maturity portfolio was up 45 basis points compared with last year. The average pretax yield for the total of purchased taxable and tax-exempt bonds during 2024 was 5.66%. Valuation changes in aggregate for the fourth quarter were unfavorable for both our equity portfolio and our bond portfolio.

第四季固定期限投資組合的稅前平均殖利率為 4.93%，較去年同期上升了 45 個基點。2024 年購買的應稅和免稅債券總額的平均稅前收益率為 5.66%。第四季的整體估值變化對我們的股票投資組合和債券投資組合均不利。

Before tax effects, the net loss was $136 million for the equity portfolio and $350 million for the bond portfolio. At the end of the fourth quarter, the total investment portfolio net appreciated value was approximately $6.7 billion.

扣除稅費前，股票投資組合的淨虧損為 1.36 億美元，債券投資組合的淨虧損為 3.5 億美元。截至第四季末，投資組合總淨增值約67億美元。

The equity portfolio was in a net gain position of $7.2 billion while the fixed-maturity portfolio was in a net loss position of $553 million. Cash flow, in addition to higher bond yields, continued to benefit investment income growth. Cash flow from operating activities for full-year 2024 was $2.6 billion, up 29% from last year.

股票投資組合的淨收益為 72 億美元，而固定期限投資組合的淨虧損為 5.53 億美元。現金流和債券殖利率上升繼續推動投資收益成長。2024年全年經營活動現金流為26億美元，較去年成長29%。

Regarding expense management, our objective is to balance spending control efforts with investing strategically in our business. Our 29.9% full-year 2024 property casualty underwriting expense ratio was in line with 2023 in total and for each major expense category.

關於費用管理，我們的目標是在支出控制與業務策略投資之間取得平衡。我們 2024 年全年財產意外保險承保費用率為 29.9%，整體及每個主要費用類別與 2023 年持平。

The fourth-quarter ratio was 1.4 percentage points lower than last year, primarily due to lower accruals for agency profit-sharing commissions, in addition to premium growth outpacing the increase in employee-related expenses.

第四季的比例比去年同期下降了1.4個百分點，主要原因是代理商利潤分享佣金的應計金額減少，此外保費成長速度超過了員工相關費用的增幅。

My next topic is lost reserves, where our approach remains consistent and aims for the net amounts in the upper half of the actuarially estimated range of net loss and loss expense reserves. As we do each quarter, we consider new information, such as paid losses and case reserves. Then we updated estimated ultimate losses and loss expenses by accident year and line of business.

我的下一個主題是損失準備金，我們的方法保持一致，目標是將淨損失和損失費用準備金的精算估計範圍的上半部分作為淨額。正如我們每個季度所做的那樣，我們會考慮新的信息，例如已付損失和案件準備金。然後，我們根據事故年份和業務範圍更新了預計最終損失和損失費用。

During 2024, our net addition to property casualty, loss and loss expense reserves was $1.1 billion, including $998 million for the IBNR portion. We experienced $236 million of property casualty net favorable reserve development on prior accident years that benefited the combined ratio by 2.7 percentage points during 2024.

2024 年，我們的財產意外、損失和損失費用準備金淨增加額為 11 億美元，其中包括 IBNR 部分 9.98 億美元。我們在前幾起事故年份中累積了 2.36 億美元的財產意外險淨盈餘準備金，這使 2024 年的綜合賠付率提高了 2.7 個百分點。

For our commercial casualty line of business, there was no material reserve development for any prior accident year during the fourth quarter. On an all-lines basis by accident year, net reserve development during 2024 included a favorable $369 million for '23, favorable $63 million for '22, favorable $5 million for '21, and an unfavorable $201 million in aggregate for accident years prior to '21.

對於我們的商業意外險業務而言，第四季度沒有針對任何先前事故年度的物質儲備發展。按事故年份劃分的所有險種，2024 年的淨儲備發展包括'23 年的有利 3.69 億美元、'22 年的有利 6,300 萬美元、'21 年的有利 500 萬美元，以及'21 年之前事故年份的不利總計 2.01 億美元。

My final comments highlight our capital management activities. For full-year 2024, we returned capital to shareholders through $490 million of dividends paid in addition to share repurchases. Shares repurchased totaled 1.1 million shares at an average price of approximately $113 per share, including an immaterial amount during the fourth quarter.

我最後的評論強調了我們的資本管理活動。2024 年全年，除了股票回購外，我們還透過支付 4.9 億美元的股息向股東返還資本。回購股份總計 110 萬股，平均價格約為每股 113 美元，其中包括第四季的小額回購。

We believe our financial flexibility and our financial strength are both in excellent position. Parent company cash and marketable securities at year-end totaled $5.2 billion. Debt-to-total capital remained under 10%. And our quarter-end book value was at a record-high $89.11 per share, with nearly $14 billion of GAAP consolidated shareholders equity providing plenty of capacity for profitable growth for all of our insurance operations.

我們相信我們的財務靈活性和財務實力都處於良好狀態。母公司年末現金和有價證券總額為 52 億美元。債務總額比率資本維持在10%以下。我們的季度末帳面價值達到每股 89.11 美元的歷史新高，近 140 億美元的 GAAP 合併股東權益為我們所有保險業務的獲利成長提供了充足的能力。

Now, I'll turn the call back over to Steve.

現在，我將把電話轉回給史蒂夫。

Thanks, Mike.

謝謝，麥克。

2025 marks the 75th anniversary of The Cincinnati Insurance Company. Over that time, we've come to understand the importance of stability, consistency, and financial strength. We understand that we're in the business of accepting risk. We plan for it. We price for it. We spend considerable time and effort focused on appropriately balancing growth and profitability through geographic and product diversification, pricing sophistication, and enterprise risk management.

2025年是辛辛那提保險公司成立75週年。隨著時間的推移，我們逐漸認識到穩定性、一致性和財務實力的重要性。我們了解，我們從事的業務是承擔風險的。我們為此做計劃。我們為此定價。我們花費大量時間和精力專注於透過地理和產品多樣化、定價複雜化和企業風險管理來適當平衡成長和獲利能力。

No one expects to experience a catastrophic loss, such as those felt by the people who found themselves in the paths of hurricanes Helene and Milton or the California wildfires. However, it's in the aftermath of these events that Cincinnati Insurance can shine.

沒有人希望遭受災難性的損失，就像那些身處海倫颶風和米爾頓颶風或加州山火路徑上的人們所感受到的一樣。然而，正是在這些事件發生之後，辛辛那提保險才得以大放異彩。

Confident in our financial strength, our claims associates can focus on delivering fast, fair, and empathetic service. At the same time, we are ready to build value for shareholders. The Board recently reinforced their confidence in our strategy by declaring a 7% dividend increase payable in April, and paving the way to extend our streak of increasing dividends to 65 years.

我們的理賠人員對我們的財務實力充滿信心，因此可以專注於提供快速、公平和富有同情心的服務。同時，我們準備為股東創造價值。董事會最近宣布將於 4 月增加 7% 的股息，為將股息連續增加至 65 年鋪平了道路，此舉增強了對我們策略的信心。

As a reminder, with Mike and me today are Steve Johnston, Steve Soloria, Marc Schambow, and Theresa Hoffer.

提醒一下，今天和我一起在場的還有史蒂夫·約翰斯頓 (Steve Johnston)、史蒂夫·索洛里亞 (Steve Soloria)、馬克·沙姆博 (Marc Schambow) 和特蕾莎·霍弗 (Theresa Hoffer)。

Gary, please open the call for questions.

加里，請開始提問。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員指令）

Michael Phillips, Oppenheimer.

奧本海默的邁克爾·菲利普斯。

Just want to start off, I guess, I'd love to hear your perspective on -- a higher level question, on the outlook for the reinsurance sector in the aftermath of California. I guess how do you see capacity as the year progresses? How do you expect Cinci Re to respond? And then maybe how should that translate into kind of premium for 2025 for that segment?

首先，我想聽聽你對一個更高層次的問題的看法，即加州危機之後再保險行業的前景。我想問一下，隨著時間的推移，您認為產能會如何改變呢？您預計 Cinci Re 會如何回應？那麼，這應該如何轉化為 2025 年該細分市場的溢價呢？

Yeah. Mike, are you talking specifically on Cincinnati Re or ceded re?

是的。麥克，你具體說的是辛辛那提再保險公司 (Cincinnati Re) 還是割讓再保險公司 (Ceded Re) 嗎？

Well, I guess just your thoughts on the market in general broadly for the industry, how it responds. And then kind of drill down to how you guys -- it looks -- there's going to be some opportunities, how you guys would respond and what that means for Cincinnati Re?

嗯，我想你只是對整個市場、對整個產業以及它的反應有什麼看法。然後深入探討你們——看起來——將會有一些機會，你們將如何應對，以及這對辛辛那提再保險公司意味著什麼？

Yeah. Maybe I'll start with just the reinsurance market to your question, Mike.

是的。麥克，也許我將從再保險市場開始回答你的問題。

First is, I think the reinsurers appropriately, the last couple of years, I think, have shown -- just the industry itself has shown an underwriting profit. I think that's good, that's healthy. We all need that. I'll speak specifically for Cincinnati Insurance. We've just got such long-term relationships and partnerships with our ceded partners, our reinsurers, and talk to them on a regular basis, obviously.

首先，我認為再保險公司在過去幾年中已經表現出——該行業本身已經顯示出承保利潤。我認為這很好，很健康。我們都需要這個。我將專門代表辛辛那提保險公司發言。我們與我們的轉讓合作夥伴、再保險公司建立了長期的關係和夥伴關係，並且顯然定期與他們進行交流。

We expect to pay all of our losses ground up plus the reinsurer's margin over time. We need them healthy. They know that. We've traded with them that way over time, and that won't change. So that would probably be my remarks there. Cincinnati Re, they're going to stay the course. You heard, we had a extremely profitable 2024. Inception to date with Cincinnati Re is very profitable as well. They plan for cat. That's what they do. Their losses on specifically on the California wildfires were within expectation and they'll proceed throughout the year with their 2025 plan, no change.

我們預計將逐步償還所有損失加上再保險公司的保證金。我們需要他們健康。他們知道這一點。我們長期以來一直以這種方式與他們進行貿易，這一點不會改變。這可能就是我的評論了。辛辛那提再保險公司，他們會堅持下去。您聽說了，我們在 2024 年取得了極為豐厚的利潤。辛辛那提再保險公司成立至今的獲利情況也非常好。他們計劃養貓。這就是他們所做的。他們在加州山火方面的損失是在預期之內的，他們全年都會繼續執行他們的 2025 年計劃，不會有任何變化。

Next question is, I ask, I wouldn't classify your umbrella exposure in general for your company as tiny, but it's not that outsized. But question related to sort of umbrella. And in personal lines, I think this quarter, I didn't see a lot -- for personal lines of umbrella, I didn't see a lot of change in claim count activity in that two to five layer. But dollar amounts did move up.

我想問的下一個問題是，我不會將貴公司的整體保護傘風險敞口歸類為微小，但也沒有那麼大。但問題與雨傘的種類有關。就個人險而言，我認為本季度我沒有看到太多變化——就個人綜合險而言，我沒有看到二到五層的索賠數量活動發生太大變化。但美元金額確實上升了。

So something's there, sort of $10 million plus, $25 million, $35 million of walls in the two to five layer. Any color you can add on anything in the quarter specifically that would help justify that extra amount of dollars in that layer? And then more broadly, after the quarter, anything you're seeing in umbrella excess layers that would cause any concerns?

所以那裡面有些花費，大概是 1000 多萬美元，2500 萬美元，2 到 5 層樓的牆壁花費 3500 萬美元。您可以在本季度的任何內容上添加任何顏色來具體證明該層中額外的金額是合理的嗎？然後更廣泛地說，在本季度之後，您是否看到任何可能引起擔憂的雨傘過剩層？

Yeah. Thanks, Mike. I appreciate the question.

是的。謝謝，麥克。我很感謝你提出這個問題。

Now looking at a quarter for umbrella, whether it be commercial or personal, I think it's going to kind of mislead you a little bit. I think you got to pull back to more of an annual number. There's just -- the frequency with the umbrella is obviously very low. It's a severity line. There's inherent volatility in it.

現在來看看用於雨傘的四分之一，無論是商業還是個人，我認為這都會有點誤導你。我認為你必須將數字拉回年度數字。只是——使用雨傘的頻率顯然非常低。這是一條嚴重程度線。其中存在著固有的波動性。

So we look at every single large loss we have in every single line of business we have and look for trends, whether it be by state, by agency, by class of business, that's -- obviously, I'm speaking to commercial. We do the same thing for personal lines as well.

因此，我們會查看我們每個業務線上的每一筆巨額損失，並尋找趨勢，無論是按州、按機構、按業務類別，這顯然是指商業。我們對個人線路也做同樣的事情。

So we don't see anything in that commercial book, or, excuse me, in that personal lines umbrella book that causes us any concern.

因此，我們沒有在那本商業險種手冊或者，對不起，在那本個人險種總手冊中看到任何讓我們擔心的內容。

Congrats on the quarter.

恭喜本季取得佳績。

Yeah, thanks so much, Mike. Appreciate it.

是的，非常感謝，麥克。非常感謝。

Gregory Peters, Raymond James.

格雷戈里彼得斯、雷蒙德詹姆斯。

I want to go back to the comments on the fire loss. Could you provide some perspective on, I think you said $50 million to $60 million of reinstatement costs? What the gross loss might be or what you're pegging for using for your gross loss number and just trying to figure out how far up the tower you went?

我想回顧一下有關火災損失的評論。您能否提供一些看法，我記得您說過恢復成本為 5,000 萬至 6,000 萬美元？總損失可能是多少，或者您要用什麼來作為總損失數字，只是想弄清楚您爬到了多高的塔？

Yeah. Thanks, Greg.

是的。謝謝，格雷格。

And as you can imagine, this is still an active cat. And for right now, our net range that we're providing you is our best estimate of ultimate loss, and we're going to just stick with that net range of the $450 million to $525 million. Just not -- there's not so many moving parts right now, Greg. Just providing a gross number is -- we're not ready to go.

正如你所想像的，這仍然是一隻活躍的貓。就目前而言，我們向您提供的淨範圍是對最終損失的最佳估計，我們將堅持 4.5 億美元至 5.25 億美元的淨範圍。只是——現在沒有那麼多活動部件，格雷格。僅提供總數是——我們還沒準備好。

Can you maybe pivot away from that then and just, I know there was a call recently with the insurance regulator and the governor and a bunch of insurance companies. And it feels like there's some movement to making -- allowing more rate activity in homeowners to compensate for the fire risk.

那麼，您能否改變這種局面？感覺好像正在採取一些行動——允許房主進行更多的利率活動來補償火災風險。

Can you talk about what your perspective is of that market looking forward once we get through paying all the losses, et cetera?

您能否談談一旦我們償還所有損失等之後，您對該市場有何看法？

Yeah. Sure. One thing I'd point out for the Cincinnati book is 77% of our homeowner premiums in California today are on a non-admitted basis. On the admitted side, I think it's pretty well documented. I don't think it's any secret that California is a challenging market.

是的。當然。我想指出的是，在辛辛那提書中，目前加州 77% 的房屋保險費都是非承認的。從承認的角度來看，我認為這是有據可查的。我認為加州是一個充滿挑戰的市場並不是什麼秘密。

We've got great agents and policyholders, and we want to support them. As you can imagine also, after I just mentioned any individual single large loss, and also after any cat event, we do a deep dive as a company and objectively look at everything regardless of the event and determine if there's lessons learned.

我們擁有優秀的代理商和保單持有人，我們希望為他們提供支援。你也可以想像，在我剛才提到任何單獨的重大損失之後，以及在任何災難事件之後，我們作為一家公司都會進行深入研究，客觀地看待一切，無論事件如何，並確定是否有吸取的教訓。

There's always lessons learned. If there's anything we need to do in changing our strategy moving forward, if anything, we'll obviously do that here with California, and with the wildfires, and there's just a lot of -- as you can imagine, Greg, there's a lot of moving parts with this as well.

總會有教訓的。如果我們需要改變未來的策略，那麼我們顯然會針對加州和山火做出改變，格雷格，你可以想像，這件事也有很多變數。

And yeah, the regulation, rate environment, things of that nature, there's a long list of things that we will look at. But I think right now, we are really focused on paying claims fairly, empathetically, face to face, and the lessons learned, although we're looking at them actively, that'll take a little longer to really formulate if we're going to make any changes going forward.

是的，監管、利率環境等諸如此類的事情，我們要考慮的事情有很多。但我認為現在，我們真正關注的是公平、同情、面對面地支付索賠，儘管我們正在積極地審視這些經驗教訓，但如果我們要在未來做出任何改變，那麼真正制定這些經驗教訓還需要更長的時間。

I'll pivot away from that line of questioning.

我將不再繼續問這個問題。

Just my question broadly speaking is, there's in the commercial lines market, maybe in the personal lines market ex-California just this growing sense that the pricing cycles kind of peaked. Maybe it's moderating, price increases aren't as robust. In some instances, they're going down.

廣義上講，我的問題是，在商業險市場，也許在加州以外的個人險市場，人們越來越感覺到定價週期已經達到頂峰。也許正在緩和，價格上漲不再那麼強勁。在某些情況下，它們正在下降。

Can you remind us and just give us a snapshot of where you were at the end of the year? And I know part of your book has multi-year policies. Can you give us a snapshot of where those policies reside and what the percentage of the total was?

您能否提醒我們一下，並簡單介紹一下您在年底的情況？我知道您的書的一部分涉及多年期政策。您能否向我們簡要介紹一下這些政策的所在位置以及佔總數的百分比？

Yeah, sure.

是的，當然。

So as we just talked about, on the -- for the major lines of business, commercial property, general liability, and auto, we're in the high-single-digit range. Work comp is down in the mid-single-digit range. That's been pretty well documented. So we're still seeing rate into that commercial lines book.

正如我們剛才談到的，就主要業務線、商業房地產、一般責任和汽車而言，我們的成長率都處於高個位數範圍。工傷賠償下降幅度處於個位數中段。這已經有了很詳盡的紀錄。因此，我們仍然可以在商業險帳簿上看到利率。

But I think the point estimate or the average, Greg, it doesn't tell the story for us. Our underwriters at the desk level working with agents, using the precision, the pricing tools that they have are segmenting our book. So there's a large percentage of our book of business.

但是我認為點估計或平均值，格雷格，它不能告訴我們故事。我們的承銷商在桌面層級與代理商合作，利用他們擁有的精確定價工具來細分我們的承銷帳簿。因此，這佔了我們的業務總量的很大一部分。

And as you know, we're a package underwriter. That may -- just as an example, may get a flat increase, and there's a percentage of our book, it's albeit smaller, may get 20% or 30%. Point being is that we are segmenting, we're underwriting and pricing policy by policy, risk by risk.

如您所知，我們是包裹承保人。舉例來說，這可能會有一個平穩的成長，而我們的帳面價值中雖然有一定比例，但可能會成長 20% 或 30%。重點是我們正在進行細分，我們根據每個保單、每個風險進行承保和定價。

So we're still seeing rate come into the book. The rate from last year, 18 months ago, was still earning into the book. So I suspect here throughout 2025, you'll still see rate coming into that commercial lines book.

因此我們仍然看到利率進入帳簿。去年（18 個月前）的利率仍在帳面上。因此，我預計在整個 2025 年，您仍會看到利率進入商業險帳簿。

Dean Criscitiello, KBW.

Dean Criscitiello，KBW。

I wanted to start and sort of dive deeper into the reserve strengthening both in the commercial auto and the excess and surplus line segment. I was just sort of curious like if there's anything else you could provide on sort of the accident years that the strengthening came from and what sort of trends you're seeing in those lines?

我想開始更深入地研究商用汽車以及超額和剩餘線路領域的儲備加強。我只是有點好奇，您是否還能提供其他信息，例如事故年份的加強以及您在這些方面看到了什麼樣的趨勢？

Yeah. Thanks for the question, Dean. This is Mike Sewell.

是的。謝謝你的提問，Dean。我是麥克·塞維爾。

So yeah, you're keying in on a couple of points there. So on the personal auto, it's really I think our case incurred for some of the liability coverages that are in there, we're showing a upward trend. And I would say that those were mostly for the 2023 and the 2022 accident years mostly.

是的，你正在關注那裡的幾個點。因此，就個人汽車而言，我認為我們承擔的部分責任險種呈現上升趨勢。我想說的是，這些主要是針對 2023 年和 2022 年的事故年。

So that's where you saw a little bit of reserve strengthening there. And then as it relates to the surplus lines, our case incurreds are there, they were just materializing greater than what we had expected. E&S is about 90% casualty, at least of our book.

所以你就看到了那裡儲備力量略有增強。然後，就盈餘線而言，我們的案例發生的情況是存在的，它們只是比我們預期的要大。至少在我們看來，E&S 的損失大約佔 90%。

So it's really kind of similar to the industry averages that we're seeing with inflation, et cetera. So more prudent reserving was there. And as I indicated, we added $998 million of IBNR. So for the overall book, about a third of that went to commercial casualty.

所以它實際上與我們在通貨膨脹等方面看到的行業平均值有點相似。因此，我們需要更加謹慎地進行保留。正如我所指出的，我們增加了 9.98 億美元的 IBNR。因此，就整體而言，其中約有三分之一用於商業意外險。

So just prudent reserving, watching what we're doing and being consistent with our process.

因此，只需謹慎保留，觀察我們正在做的事情並保持與我們的流程的一致性。

So thanks for the question.

感謝您的提問。

And then just quickly on the commercial property like current, ex, and your ex-cat loss ratio, it seemed abnormally low this quarter. Is there any other color you could provide on why the profitability was so strong this quarter?

然後簡單看一下商業地產，例如當前、前和前巨災損失率，本季似乎異常低。您能提供其他細節來解釋為什麼本季獲利能力如此強勁嗎？

Sure. Dean, this is Steve Spray. Yeah, we'll take it.

當然。迪恩，這是史蒂夫·斯普雷。是的，我們會接受。

But what's driving that was just a drop in large losses. This drove the absolute lion's share of those commercial property results. But I would be -- you can get volatility with those large losses quarter to quarter. We've had it where it's gone the other way.

但推動這現象的只是巨額損失的下降。這佔據了商業地產業績效的絕對最大份額。但我會——每季的巨額虧損可能會導致波動。我們也曾經歷過相反的情況。

So again, prefer to look at the kind of the full year. Our teams, I'd be remiss if I didn't talk about commercial lines underwriting teams working with the agents. And underwriting net commercial property book, it was running a bit of a temperature. And so just as we always do, all hands on deck with risk selection and pricing segmentation got us in a good spot there.

所以，我們還是比較願意看全年的情況。我們的團隊，如果我不談論與代理商合作的商業險承保團隊，那我就太失職了。而承銷商業地產淨帳簿的時候，情況有點緊張。因此，就像我們一直在做的那樣，全員參與風險選擇和價格細分，使我們處於有利地位。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員指令）

Michael Zaremski, BMO Capital Markets.

BMO 資本市場負責人 Michael Zaremski。

It's Dan on for Mike from BMO Capital Markets.

我是 BMO 資本市場部的 Dan，取代 Mike 發言。

If I could just go back to adding to commercial casualty, IBNR, you're still adding to those levels year over year. Maybe a little less so in magnitude in 2023. But can you just talk about the loss cost inflation trend that you're seeing now and how that's changed throughout the year?

如果我可以回到增加商業意外險、IBNR 的話題，你仍然在逐年增加這些水準。到 2023 年，這種影響或許會小一點。但是，您能談談您現在看到的損失成本通膨趨勢以及全年的變化嗎？

Sure. Mike, Steve Spray again.

當然。麥克，又是史蒂夫·斯普雷。

Yeah, as you know, we don't disclose a specific loss cost increase, but I would say -- maybe I'll answer this a little broader too, is we feel that our rates, our premiums, again, this is on a prospective basis, everything we do with rate making is prospective that our pricing is exceeding or matching loss costs.

是的，如您所知，我們不會透露具體的損失成本增加，但我想說——也許我也會更廣泛地回答這個問題，我們認為我們的費率、我們的保費，再次強調，這是基於預期的，我們在製定費率時所做的一切都是預期的，我們的定價將超過或匹配損失成本。

And the only one caveat on that would be with the workers' compensation line of business.

唯一的警告是工人賠償業務線。

Then maybe just on the casualty trend. What -- how much of that would you say is a reaction to Cinci's contractors' industry exposure? I think some peers have talked about this industry as being overly exposed to social inflation.

那麼可能只是關注傷亡趨勢。您認為這在多大程度上是對 Cinci 承包商產業曝光的反應？我認為一些同行已經談到這個行業過度暴露於社會通膨。

Yeah. I can't say that we have seen the construction business, at least, the business that we write, Mike, being overly exposed to social inflation. A lot of the social inflation we see is under the umbrella off of commercial auto losses. Back to the construction piece, we do watch closely, and it really depends on the jurisdiction you're in or the venue in, construction defects.

是的。我不能說我們已經看到建築業，至少我們寫的行業，麥克，過度暴露於社會通膨。我們看到的許多社會通膨都是由商業汽車損失造成的。回到施工部分，我們確實密切關注，這實際上取決於您所在的司法管轄區或場地以及施工缺陷。

Claims can be a challenge from time to time and maybe that's what they're referring to. But for our construction book, which would be small- to mid-market, particularly, trade contractors and such, with that mix of business, we haven't seen -- I can't say we've seen the social inflation into our construction book.

索賠有時會成為一種挑戰，也許這就是他們所指的。但是對於我們的建築業務來說，這將是中小型市場，特別是貿易承包商和類似的業務組合，我們還沒有看到 - 我不能說我們已經看到社會通膨進入我們的建築業務。

Then also just on workers' comp, you mentioned, that's the only line of business where you're seeing trend above pricing. Just,there was an acceleration in reserve leases and comp this year. Are there any thoughts to maybe adjusting that pick going forward or taking some more of the good news up front?

然後，就您提到的工傷補償而言，這是唯一一個看到價格上漲趨勢的業務線。只是，今年儲備租賃和補償業務有所加速。您是否想過也許在未來調整這個選擇或預先獲取更多好消息？

Yeah. That's something that we talk regularly here with the actuarial team. And they're taking a look at it all the time. So I don't have anything to report on that, Mike. Obviously, I've been talking about the deterioration of work comp, pricing for, I don't know how long now.

是的。這是我們與精算團隊經常討論的事情。他們一直在觀察它。因此，麥克，我對此沒有什麼可報告的。顯然，我一直在談論工傷補償和定價的惡化，但我不知道已經持續多久了。

And calendar year wise, the results continue to be favorable. So we'll take it. But your point's also well taken as far as just understanding, and maybe taking a different view of it. We'll leave that in the hands or in discussions with the actuaries.

從歷年來看，業績依然良好。所以我們就接受它。但您的觀點也很好，只要我們理解，也許可以從不同的角度來看待它。我們將把這個問題交給精算師或與精算師討論。

This concludes our question-and-answer session.

我們的問答環節到此結束。

I would like to turn the conference back over to Steve Spray for any closing remarks.

我想將會議交還給史蒂夫·斯普雷 (Steve Spray) 做最後發言。

Thank you, Gary, and thank you all for joining us today.

謝謝你，加里，也謝謝大家今天加入我們。

We look forward to speaking with you again on our first quarter 2025 call.

我們期待在 2025 年第一季電話會議上再次與您交談。

The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.

會議現已結束。感謝您參加今天的演講。您現在可以斷開連線。