辛辛納提金融 (CINF) 2025 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good day and welcome to the Cincinnati Financial Corporation first-quarter 2025 earnings conference call. (Operator Instructions) Please note, this event is being recorded.

大家好，歡迎參加辛辛那提金融公司 2025 年第一季財報電話會議。（操作員指示）請注意，此事件正在被記錄。

I would now like to turn the conference over to Dennis McDaniel, Investor Relations Officer. Please go ahead.

現在，我想將會議交給投資者關係官丹尼斯·麥克丹尼爾 (Dennis McDaniel)。請繼續。

Hello. This is Dennis McDaniel at Cincinnati Financial. Thank you for joining us for our first-quarter 2025 earnings conference call. Late yesterday, we issued a news release on our results, along with our supplemental financial package, including our quarter-end investment portfolio. To find copies of any of these documents, please visit our investor website, investors.cinfin.com. The shortest route to the information is the quarterly results section near the middle of the Investor Overview page.

你好。我是辛辛那提金融公司的丹尼斯·麥克丹尼爾。感謝您參加我們的 2025 年第一季財報電話會議。昨天晚些時候，我們發布了一份有關我們業績的新聞稿，以及我們的補充財務方案，其中包括我們的季末投資組合。若要尋找這些文件的副本，請造訪我們的投資者網站 investors.cinfin.com。獲取該資訊的最短途徑是投資者概覽頁面中間附近的季度業績部分。

On this call, you'll first hear from President and Chief Executive Officer, Steve Spray; and then from Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Mike Sewell. After their prepared remarks, investors participating on the call may ask questions. At that time, some responses may be made by others in the room with us, including Executive Chairman, Steve Johnston; Chief Investment Officer, Steve Soloria; and Cincinnati Insurance's Chief Claims Officer, Marc Schambow; and Senior Vice President of Corporate Finance, Theresa Hoffer.

在本次電話會議中，您首先會聽到總裁兼執行長 Steve Spray 的發言；然後是執行副總裁兼財務長 Mike Sewell。在發表準備好的發言後，參加電話會議的投資人可以提出問題。屆時，與我們在場的其他人可能會做出一些回應，包括執行主席史蒂夫·約翰斯頓 (Steve Johnston)；首席投資官 Steve Soloria；以及辛辛那提保險公司的首席索賠官馬克·沙姆博 (Marc Schambow)；以及公司財務高級副總裁 Theresa Hoffer。

Please note that some of the matters to be discussed today are forward looking. These forward-looking statements involve certain risks and uncertainties. With respect to these risks and uncertainties, we direct your attention to our news release and to our various filings with the SEC. Also, a reconciliation of non-GAAP measures was provided with the news release. Statutory accounting data is prepared in accordance with statutory accounting rules and therefore, is not reconciled to GAAP.

請注意，今天要討論的一些事項是前瞻性的。這些前瞻性陳述涉及一定的風險和不確定性。對於這些風險和不確定性，我們請您關注我們的新聞稿以及我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的各種文件。此外，新聞稿中還提供了非公認會計準則 (non-GAAP) 指標的對帳表。法定會計數據是根據法定會計規則編制的，因此與 GAAP 不一致。

Now I'll turn over the call to Steve.

現在我將把電話轉給史蒂夫。

Good morning, and thank you for joining us today to hear more about our results. The first quarter of 2025 had its share of challenges. From the wildfires in California, to freezing and flooding across the Plains, to wind and water in the Midwest and East Coast, almost every area of the country was impacted by a weather-related catastrophe this quarter. While catastrophe losses can dampen earnings on a short-term basis, we know they present an opportunity for our claims service to shine and reinforce the noble purpose of our business.

早安，感謝您今天加入我們並了解我們的成果。2025 年第一季面臨諸多挑戰。從加州的野火，到整個平原的冰凍和洪水，再到中西部和東海岸的風和水，本季度幾乎全國每個地區都受到了天氣相關災難的影響。雖然災難損失會在短期內抑制收益，但我們知道這為我們的理賠服務提供了一個機會，讓我們能夠大放異彩，並強化我們業務的崇高宗旨。

Our claims professionals again demonstrated the value of a Cincinnati policy by helping policyholders recover from damaged homes and businesses. I'm proud of the way they have responded with prompt and personal service in handling each claim with care and empathy. The effects of these catastrophes offset otherwise profitable results from our insurance operations and strong investment income that continue to grow at a double-digit percentage pace. As I look deeper into our results for the quarter, I see several areas of strong performance. I remain confident in our long-term plans and in our ability to execute on our proven strategy.

我們的理賠專家再次證明了辛辛那提保單的價值，幫助保單持有人從受損的房屋和企業中恢復過來。我為他們以迅速和個性化的服務回應並細心和同情地處理每項索賠的方式感到自豪。這些災難的影響抵消了我們保險業務的獲利結果和繼續以兩位數百分比成長的強勁投資收入。當我深入研究本季的業績時，我發現有幾個領域表現強勁。我對我們的長期計劃以及執行已證實的策略的能力充滿信心。

In addition to growing investment income, property casualty premiums continued to increase at a nice pace and included strong renewal pricing. Our commercial lines insurance segment produced a superb combined ratio of 91.9%, continuing its steady improvement over the past three years. Our excess and surplus lines also had an outstanding quarter, including a combined ratio below 90%.

除了投資收入不斷增長之外，財產意外保險保費也持續保持良好的成長速度，續保價格也十分強勁。我們的商業險種保險部門實現了 91.9% 的優異綜合成本率，並在過去三年中持續穩步改善。我們的超額和盈餘線也在本季表現出色，綜合比率低於 90%。

In terms of consolidated results on our income statement, we reported a net loss of $90 million for the first quarter of 2025, including recognition of $56 million on an after-tax basis for the decrease in fair value of equity securities still held. It also included a non-gap operating loss of $37 million, a swing of $309 million from a year ago. The change was driven by a $356 million increase in after-tax catastrophe losses.

就我們損益表的綜合業績而言，我們報告 2025 年第一季淨虧損 9,000 萬美元，其中包括因仍持有的股權證券公允價值下降而按稅後基礎確認的 5,600 萬美元。其中還包括 3,700 萬美元的非差距營運虧損，與去年同期相比增加了 3.09 億美元。這項變化是由於稅後巨災損失增加了 3.56 億美元。

Our 113.3% first-quarter 2025 property casualty combined ratio was 19.7 percentage points higher than the first quarter of last year, including an increase of 19.1 points for catastrophe losses. Our 90.5% accident year 2025 combined ratio before catastrophe losses improved by 0.6 percentage points compared with accident year 2024 for the first quarter. Without the effects of reduced premiums from reinstating reinsurance treaties related to the California wildfires, it would have improved an additional 2 percentage points.

我們的 2025 年第一季財產意外險綜合比率為 113.3%，比去年第一季高出 19.7 個百分點，其中巨災損失增加了 19.1 個百分點。2025 年第一季度，災難損失前的綜合事故率為 90.5%，與 2024 年第一季的事故率相比，提高了 0.6 個百分點。如果不考慮恢復與加州野火相關的再保險條約而降低保費的影響，這一數字還會再提高 2 個百分點。

During the first quarter of 2025, our catastrophe reinsurance program responded as intended for a large event. The estimated first-quarter recovery from our primary property catastrophe reinsurance treaty for the wildfires was $429 million based on our estimate of gross losses at the end of the quarter. Our consolidated property casualty net written premiums grew 11% for the quarter, including 14% growth in agency renewal premiums and 11% in new business premiums. We were satisfied with premium growth for the quarter, even with the unfavorable effect of the reinstatement premiums for our property catastrophe reinsurance treaty.

2025 年第一季度，我們的巨災再保險計劃按計劃應對了一場大型事件。根據我們對本季末總損失的估計，我們針對野火的主要財產巨災再保險合約第一季的預計恢復金額為 4.29 億美元。本季度，我們的綜合財產險淨承保保費增加了 11%，其中代理續保保費增加了 14%，新業務保費增加了 11%。儘管恢復保費對我們的財產巨災再保險合約產生了不利影響，但我們對本季的保費成長感到滿意。

Our estimate of the net effect of all reinstatement premiums reduced first-quarter 2025 premiums by $52 million, slowing growth of consolidated property casualty net written premiums by about 2 percentage points. Our objective is profitable premium growth, and it is supported by various efforts. Our underwriters focus on pricing and risk segmentation on a policy-by-policy basis as they make risk selection decisions.

我們估計所有恢復保費的淨效應將導致 2025 年第一季的保費減少 5,200 萬美元，合併財產險淨承保保費的成長速度減緩約 2 個百分點。我們的目標是實現保費獲利性成長，並透過多方努力實現這一目標。我們的核保人在製定風險選擇決策時注重每份保單的定價和風險細分。

Combining that with average price increases should help us continue to improve our underwriting profitability. Estimated average renewal price increases for most lines of business during the first quarter were slightly lower than the fourth quarter of 2024. Commercial lines in total remained near the low end of the high-single-digit percentage range, and excess and surplus lines remain near the high end of that range.

結合平均價格上漲，這應該有助於我們繼續提高承保獲利能力。第一季大多數業務線的預期平均續訂價格漲幅略低於 2024 年第四季。商業險種總額仍接近高個位數百分比範圍的低端，超額險種和盈餘險種仍接近該範圍的高端。

Our personal line segment included both personal auto and homeowner in the low-double-digit range, with personal auto approaching the low end of that range. New business produced by agencies representing Cincinnati Insurance again contributed to premium growth. We continue the healthy pace of appointing agencies where we identify appropriate expansion opportunities consistent with our long-term growth strategy. I'll briefly comment on performance by insurance segment, highlighting premium growth and underwriting profitability compared with a year ago.

我們的個人保險部分包括個人汽車保險和房屋保險，保額都在兩位數以下，其中個人汽車險接近該範圍的低端。辛辛那提保險代理機構產生的新業務再次促進了保費的成長。我們將繼續以健康的步伐任命代理機構，以尋找符合我們長期成長策略的適當擴張機會。我將簡要評論保險部門的表現，重點介紹與一年前相比的保費增長和承保盈利能力。

Commercial lines grew net written premiums 8% with an excellent 91.9% combined ratio that improved by 4.6 percentage points, including 2.6 points from lower catastrophe losses. Personal lines grew net written premiums 13%, including growth in middle market accounts and Cincinnati Private Client. This combined ratio was 151.3%, 57.4 percentage points higher than last year, primarily due to an increase of 49.9 points from higher catastrophe losses. In addition, the effect of reinstatement premiums added approximately 8 points to the combined ratio before catastrophe losses.

商業險淨承保保費成長 8%，綜合成本率達到 91.9%，較上年同期提高了 4.6 個百分點，其中巨災損失減少帶來了 2.6 個百分點的收益。個人險淨承保保費成長 13%，其中包括中階市場帳戶和辛辛那提私人客戶的成長。綜合比率為 151.3%，比去年高出 57.4 個百分點，主要因巨災損失增加導致增加了 49.9 個百分點。此外，恢復保費的影響使災難損失前的綜合比率增加了約 8 個百分點。

The $64 million of reinstatement premiums included $63 million for our homeowner line of business and reduced personal lines premium growth by 11 full points. Excess and surplus lines grew net written premiums 15% with a very profitable combined ratio of 88.3%, an improvement of 3.6 percentage points compared with a year ago.

6,400 萬美元的恢復保費包括用於我們房主業務線的 6,300 萬美元，並將個人險保費成長降低了整整 11 個百分點。超額險和盈餘險的淨承保保費增加了 15%，綜合成本率為 88.3%，比去年同期提高了 3.6 個百分點，利潤豐厚。

Both Cincinnati Re and Cincinnati Global experienced significant impacts from the California wildfires this quarter, resulting in an underwriting loss for Cincinnati Re and reducing Cincinnati Global's underwriting profit. Cincinnati Re grew first-quarter 2025 net written premiums 26%, including an estimated favorable 6 percentage points from the $12 million net effect of reinstatement premiums related to the wildfires. It had 137.4% combined ratio, which included 63.9 percentage points from catastrophe losses. The $103 million of catastrophe losses Cincinnati Re reported for the quarter included $104 million for the wildfires.

本季度，辛辛那提再保險公司和辛辛那提全球保險公司均受到加州山火的嚴重影響，導致辛辛那提再保險公司承保損失，並減少了辛辛那提全球保險公司的承保利潤。辛辛那提再保險公司 2025 年第一季的淨承保保費增加了 26%，其中包括與野火相關的 1,200 萬美元恢復保費淨效應估計帶來的 6 個百分點的有利影響。其綜合成本率為 137.4%，其中巨災損失佔 63.9 個百分點。辛辛那提再保險公司報告本季災難損失為 1.03 億美元，其中山火損失為 1.04 億美元。

Cincinnati Global's combined ratio was 95.8% for the first quarter, 26 percentage points higher than last year, driven by an increase of 23.4 points from higher catastrophe losses, including $20 million for the wildfires. Its net written premiums decreased 9% from a year ago due to lower direct and facultative property premiums reflecting underwriting discipline in the face of a softening market. Our life insurance subsidiary continued to help temper earnings volatility that can occur in the property casualty industry with its 11% improvement in net income while growing earned premiums by 1%.

辛辛那提全球第一季的綜合成本率為 95.8%，比去年高出 26 個百分點，其中災難損失增加導致成本增加了 23.4 個百分點，其中包括 2,000 萬美元的森林火災損失。由於直接和臨時財產保險保費下降，其淨承保保費較上年同期下降了 9%，反映出在市場疲軟的情況下承保紀律的降低。我們的人壽保險子公司淨收入成長了 11%，同時已賺保費成長了 1%，繼續幫助緩和財產意外險產業可能出現的獲利波動。

I'll conclude with our primary measure of long-term financial performance, the value creation ratio. Our first-quarter 2025 VCR was negative 0.5%. While that is a disappointing short-term result, it's important to remember that we've always emphasized that performance over the long term is the main focus of this measure. Net income before investment gains or losses for the quarter contributed negative 0.3%. Slightly lower overall valuation of our investment portfolio and other items contributed negative 0.2%.

最後，我將以我們衡量長期財務表現的主要指標—價值創造率來結束。我們的 2025 年第一季 VCR 為負 0.5%。雖然這是一個令人失望的短期結果，但重要的是要記住，我們一直強調長期表現是這項措施的主要重點。本季投資損益前淨收入為負0.3%。我們的投資組合及其他項目的整體估值略低，導致損失 0.2%。

Next, Chief Financial Officer, Mike Sewell, will highlight some additional aspects of our financial performance.

接下來，財務長 Mike Sewell 將重點介紹我們財務表現的其他一些方面。

Thank you, Steve, and thanks to all of you for joining us today.

謝謝你，史蒂夫，也謝謝大家今天的參與。

Investment income growth continued this quarter, up 14% compared with the first quarter of '24. Bond interest income grew 24%, and net purchases of fixed-maturity securities totaled $220 million for the first three months of the year. The first quarter pre-tax average yield of 4.92% for the fixed-maturity portfolio was up 27 basis points compared with last year. The average pre-tax yield for the total of purchase taxable and tax exempt bonds during the first quarter of this year was 5.8%. Dividend income was down 7%, reflecting previously disclosed rebalancing of our investment portfolio during 2024.

本季投資收益持續成長，與24年第一季相比成長了14%。債券利息收入成長 24%，今年前三個月固定期限證券的淨購買額達到 2.2 億美元。第一季固定期限投資組合的稅前平均收益率為 4.92%，較去年同期上升 27 個基點。今年第一季購買應稅債券和免稅債券總額的平均稅前殖利率為5.8%。股息收入下降了 7%，反映了我們先前揭露的 2024 年投資組合重新平衡。

Valuation changes in aggregate for the first quarter were unfavorable for our equity portfolio and favorable for the bond portfolio. Before tax effects, the net loss was $72 million for the equity portfolio, partially offset by a net gain of $65 million for the bond portfolio. At the end of the first quarter, the total investment portfolio net appreciated value was approximately $6.7 billion. The equity portfolio was in a net gain position of $7.2 billion, while the fixed-maturity portfolio was in a net loss position of $486 million.

第一季的整體估值變化對我們的股票投資組合不利，而對債券投資組合有利。在扣除稅費影響前，股票投資組合的淨虧損為 7,200 萬美元，但債券投資組合的淨收益為 6,500 萬美元，部分抵銷了這一損失。第一季末，投資組合總淨增值約為67億美元。股票投資組合淨收益 72 億美元，而固定期限投資組合淨虧損 4.86 億美元。

Cash flow, in addition to higher bond yields, again boosted investment income growth. Cash flow from operating activities for the first three months of 2025 was $310 million, even after paying for most of the largest catastrophe event in our history. I'll briefly touch on expense management and our efforts to balance expense control with strategic business investments.

現金流以及更高的債券殖利率再次推動了投資收益的成長。即使在支付了我們歷史上最大的災難事件的大部分費用之後，2025 年前三個月的營運活動現金流仍為 3.1 億美元。我將簡要地談談費用管理以及我​​們在平衡費用控制和策略業務投資方面的努力。

The first-quarter 2025 property casualty underwriting expense ratio increase of 0.2 percentage points was primarily due to the effect of reinstatement premiums that added 0.7 points. Regarding lost reserves, our approach remains consistent and aims for net amounts in the upper half of the actuarially estimated range of net loss and loss expense reserves. As we do each quarter, we considered new information, such as paid losses and case reserves. We then updated estimated ultimate losses and loss expenses by accident year and line of business.

2025 年第一季財產險承保費用率增加 0.2 個百分點，主要是由於復原保費增加 0.7 個百分點的影響。對於損失準備金，我們的方法保持一致，目標是使淨額處於精算估計的淨損失和損失費用準備金範圍的上半部。正如我們每個季度所做的那樣，我們考慮了新的信息，例如已付損失和案件準備金。然後，我們根據事故年份和業務範圍更新了預期的最終損失和損失費用。

For the first three months of 2025, our net addition to property casualty loss and loss expense reserves was $488 million including $454 million for the IBNR portion. During the first quarter, we experienced $91 million of property casualty net favorable reserve development on prior accident years that benefit the combined ratio by 4 percentage points. For our commercial casualty line of business, there was no material reserve development for any prior accident year during the quarter.

2025 年頭三個月，我們的財產意外損失和損失費用準備金淨增加額為 4.88 億美元，其中包括 IBNR 部分的 4.54 億美元。在第一季度，我們在前幾年的事故發生年份中獲得了 9,100 萬美元的財產意外險淨盈餘準備金，這使綜合比率提高了 4 個百分點。對於我們的商業意外險業務，本季沒有針對任何先前事故年度的物質儲備發展。

On an all-lines basis by accident year, net reserve development for the first three months of '25 included favorable $105 million for '24, favorable $9 million for '23, and an unfavorable $23 million in aggregate for accident years prior to '23.

以事故年份劃分的所有險種來看，25 年前三個月的淨儲備發展包括 24 年的有利儲備 1.05 億美元、23 年的有利儲備 900 萬美元，以及 23 年之前事故年份的不利儲備總計 2,300 萬美元。

I'll conclude my comments with capital management highlights. We paid $125 million in dividends to shareholders during the first quarter of 2025. We also repurchased 300,000 shares at an average price per share of $139.96. We believe our financial flexibility and our financial strength are both in excellent shape. Parent company cash and marketable securities at quarter end was $5 billion. Debt-to-total capital remained under 10%, and our quarter-end book value was $87.78 per share, with nearly $14 billion of GAAP consolidated shareholders equity providing plenty of capacity for profitable growth of our insurance operations.

我將以資本管理要點來結束我的評論。我們在 2025 年第一季向股東支付了 1.25 億美元的股息。我們也以每股 139.96 美元的平均價格回購了 300,000 股。我們相信我們的財務靈活性和財務實力都處於良好狀態。季末母公司現金和有價證券為 50 億美元。債務與總資本之比仍保持在 10% 以下，本季末帳面價值為每股 87.78 美元，按照 GAAP 計算的合併股東權益接近 140 億美元，為我們的保險業務盈利增長提供了充足的能力。

Now, I'll turn the call back over to Steve.

現在，我將把電話轉回給史蒂夫。

Thanks, Mike. Despite a bumpy first quarter, we remain optimistic about the future of Cincinnati Financial. We're focused on our long-term strategies and are not swayed by short-term volatility. Looking beyond the catastrophes that impacted our business this quarter, we continue to see steady improvement in key metrics we use to evaluate the core of our book. Our confidence is reinforced by what we hear from our appointed agencies as we meet with them at our annual sales meetings around the country. Agents are enthusiastic about their business and how we partner with them to serve their clients for our mutual success.

謝謝，麥克。儘管第一季並不順利，但我們對辛辛那提金融的未來仍然樂觀。我們專注於長期策略，不受短期波動的影響。除了本季影響我們業務的災難之外，我們繼續看到用於評估帳簿核心的關鍵指標穩步改善。當我們在全國各地的年度銷售會議上與指定代理商會面時，我們從他們那裡聽到的回饋增強了我們的信心。代理商對他們的業務以及我們如何與他們合作為他們的客戶服務以實現共同成功充滿熱情。

We'll continue to focus on the execution of our proven strategy, seeking profitable growth and creating shareholder value over time. As a reminder, with Mike and me today are Steve Johnston, Steve Soloria, Marc Schambow, and Theresa Hoffer.

我們將繼續專注於執行我們行之有效的策略，尋求獲利成長並隨著時間的推移創造股東價值。提醒一下，今天和我一起在 Mike 身邊的還有 Steve Johnston、Steve Soloria、Marc Schambow 和 Theresa Hoffer。

Dorwin, please open the call for questions.

多爾溫，請開始提問。

(Operator Instructions) Michael Phillips, Oppenheimer.

（操作員指示）邁克爾·菲利普斯，奧本海默。

Mike, on your comments on the reserve movements, just to confirm for commercial casualty, there wasn't any movements in between accident years, first off. And then, yeah, I think that’s the case. And then you mentioned lower emergence on known claims. I guess I just want to confirm, is that mainly property?

麥克，關於你對儲備金變動的評論，首先要確認的是，對於商業意外險，在事故年份之間沒有任何變動。是的，我認為確實如此。然後您提到已知索賠的出現率較低。我想我只是想確認一下，這主要是財產嗎？

Yeah, lower emergence on -- at least on the commercial casualty, yeah, it was 1 million of favorable development, and really between the years, there was nothing significant. Most of it came from accident year '24, but the other previous accident years, it's kind of spread throughout.

是的，出現率較低——至少在商業損失方面，是的，這是 100 萬的有利發展，而實際上這些年來，並沒有什麼重大的進展。大部分事故都發生在 1924 年的事故年份，但之前的其他事故年份也發生了類似的事故。

Okay, and that lower emergence was property, right?

好的，較低的出現是財產，對嗎？

Yes.

是的。

Okay, good. Thank you, Mike.

好的，很好。謝謝你，麥克。

Second question would be on, I guess, California specifically. Maybe broadly in your answer, if you could touch on it, can you say how much of your California wildfire is still open claims and then how you think about that risk of those open claims given tariffs. And I guess, more broadly, any comments on tariffs and the impact of your overall book, and I do kind of want to focus a little bit more on the California fires.

我想，第二個問題具體是關於加州的。也許在您的回答中，如果您可以談一下，您能否大致說一下加州野火中有多少尚未解決的索賠問題，然後您如何看待考慮到關稅這些尚未解決的索賠問題的風險。我想，更廣泛地說，關於關稅和你的整本書的影響的任何評論，我確實想更多地關注加州火災。

Yeah, no, that's a great question. So just kind of from a high level, we had previously disclosed a range – high, low - and then obviously, here, with the Q and the press release, we have tightened that up with our net loss from the California wildfires at the low end of that range, $449 million. Kind of if you look at that on a gross, I would probably -- at least our -- what we're showing right now is that we've probably paid about 65% of the gross claims there. So we've paid about $488 million, and this is really on the primary side, so excluding Cincy Re type of a thing.

是的，不，這是一個很好的問題。因此，從較高層面來看，我們之前已經披露了一個範圍——高、低——然後顯然，在這裡，透過 Q 和新聞稿，我們將加州野火造成的淨損失縮小到了該範圍的低端，即 4.49 億美元。如果你從總體上看，我可能會——至少我們的——我們現在顯示的是，我們可能已經支付了大約 65% 的總索賠。因此，我們已經支付了大約 4.88 億美元，這實際上是主要支出，不包括 Cincy Re 之類的支出。

So gross losses, 754, paying about $488 million. So we've got a large amount that we have paid and, we're collecting the reinsurance on the rest.

因此總損失為 754，損失金額約為 4.88 億美元。因此，我們已經支付了一大筆款項，並且正在收取剩餘款項的再保險。

Mike, it's Steve Spray. I might just add on that, on the amount paid also. The feedback, we obviously are in constant contact with our agents out there. And just as we would expect, but we never take it for granted, is the approach and the reaction and the way that our claims reps are handling these claims is just -- it's commendable. I mentioned noble business in my opening remarks, and that's what comes to mind when you think about how we're putting people's lives back together when things are at their worst. That's what we're in business for.

麥克，我是史蒂夫‧斯普雷。我可能還會補充一點，關於支付的金額。從回饋來看，我們顯然與那裡的代理商保持著密切聯繫。正如我們所期望的，但我們從不認為這是理所當然的，我們的索賠代表處理這些索賠的方法、反應和方式都是值得稱讚的。我在開場白中提到了高尚的事業，當你想到我們如何在情況最糟糕的時候讓人們重新過上正常的生活時，你就會想到這一點。這就是我們做生意的目的。

You had mentioned the tariffs, and maybe, I think I heard at the end there on California and then maybe just in general, and I could probably speak to -- I think they kind of both go hand in hand. And as you know, you've heard on other calls, there's a lot of moving parts and uncertainty when it comes to the tariffs. Obviously, we're monitoring very closely, not just for California, but just in general.

您提到了關稅，也許，我想我最後聽到了關於加州的討論，然後也許只是一般性討論，我可能會談到——我認為它們是相輔相成的。如您所知，您在其他電話會議上也聽過，關稅問題存在許多變化和不確定性。顯然，我們正在密切關注，不僅僅是加州，而是整個地區。

One thing I would say is that I would maybe add to the tariff piece is just -- one thing I've learned over here the first -- maybe the first year in the role is that there's always macro pressures impacting our business environment. What I do know, what we do know, is that Cincinnati is prepared to respond. We're all here on one campus. I think we're in a good position to act accordingly. We've got a history of prudent, conservative reserving.

我想說的一件事是，我可能會在關稅問題上補充一點——我在這裡學到的一件事——也許是擔任這個職務的第一年，總是有宏觀壓力影響著我們的商業環境。我所知道的，我們所知道的是，辛辛那提已經準備好回應。我們都在同一個校園裡。我認為我們有能力採取相應的行動。我們有著謹慎、保守的儲備歷史。

And then if you just look at the pricing tools, the sophistication, the segmentation that we've been executing on it, I think we're in a really good position to respond to anything that -- any way that this ends up going.

如果你只看定價工具、複雜性和我們一直在執行的細分，我認為我們處於一個非常好的位置來應對任何事情——無論最終結果如何。

Mike Zaremski, BMO.

麥克·扎雷姆斯基，BMO。

Just a quick follow-up on the tariffs. I know it’s obviously complicated and changes by the day. But in terms of response, is there -- structurally, I know that one of your competitive advantages is having kind of a three-year contract, certain elements of commercial. So should we be thinking about that dynamic in terms of kind of your response would maybe be a tiny bit slower if the tariffs do end up being impactful to commercial property inflation?

只是對關稅進行快速跟進。我知道這顯然很複雜並且每天都在變化。但就回應而言，從結構上講，我知道你們的競爭優勢之一是擁有一種三年期合同，包含某些商業元素。那麼，我們是否應該考慮這種動態，如果關稅最終對商業不動產通膨產生影響，您的反應可能會稍微慢一些？

I don't know if it'd be any slower, Mike, but let me answer it this way. I think we -- you should be thinking about it. We are thinking about it. A couple of statistics around the three-year policy is that about 75% of our commercial lines premiums are adjusted annually. That's – a third of the book is renewing. Commercial auto doesn't have a three-year guarantee lock. Umbrella doesn't have a three-year guarantee lock, and neither does workers' compensation.

我不知道這樣是否會更慢，麥克，但讓我這樣回答。我認為我們——你應該考慮一下。我們正在考慮這件事。有關三年期保單的一些統計數據是，我們約 75% 的商業險保費每年都會調整。這意味著該書的三分之一正在更新。商用汽車沒有三年保固鎖。Umbrella 沒有三年保固鎖，工傷賠償也沒有。

So that leaves you really with the property and general liability on the major lines of business. And the way I would think about it there is we've got the tools today to segment and price that business better than we ever have. Our three-year package policies outperform a one-year policy. Intuitively, the underwriters know where to place that business.

因此，您實際上只涉及主要業務線上的財產和一般責任。我的想法是，我們今天擁有的工具可以比以往更好地細分和定價業務。我們的三年期綜合保險單優於一年期保險單。直觀地看，承銷商知道該把這項業務放在哪裡。

But again, peeling that back maybe a little bit more, one of the things that I think could, for lack of a better term, hedge our bet there and help us is that even inside a three-year policy where the rate is guaranteed for three years, your exposures are adjusted annually, which is a big deal on both property and on the casualty piece. So it can act as a bit as a proxy for rate or for pricing.

但是，再進一步分析一下，我認為，沒有更好的術語可以對我們進行對沖並幫助我們，那就是即使在三年期保單中，如果利率保證三年，您的風險敞口也會每年調整，這對於財產險和意外險來說都是一件大事。因此它可以作為利率或定價的代理。

Got it. That makes sense. Yes, that's helpful. So the exposure updated annually. So in layman's terms, if the cost per square foot increases by 5% probably due to tariffs, then you're able to direct and get that 5% through even if there's a three-year lock?

知道了。這很有道理。是的，這很有幫助。因此曝光度每年都會更新。因此，用外行人的話來說，如果每平方英尺的成本可能會因為關稅而增加 5%，那麼即使有三年的鎖定期，您是否能夠直接獲得這 5%？

Yeah. Let me make sure I'm more clear on that. What we do when we issue the policy is we charge for and put on what's called an inflation guard, so it's an escalator on the property values throughout the three-year term, and there's a premium charge for it. On the casualty, we audit those premiums. So let's say, on a construction account, let's say, payroll or sales, that gets audited annually and gets adjusted accordingly.

是的。讓我確保我對此更加清楚。我們在簽發保單時會收取費用並設定所謂的通貨膨脹保護，因此在三年期限內它會對房產價值產生影響，並且會收取保費。對於意外事故，我們會審計這些保費。假設在建築帳戶中，例如薪資單或銷售額，每年都會接受審計並進行相應調整。

Okay. Got it. Sorry to harp on that. That's very helpful.

好的。知道了。抱歉，我反覆談論這個。這非常有幫助。

Real quick on that, while thinking about that, just so that if you, again, look at the tariffs and where we think -- let's just cut it back to inflation. Let's just say that inflation were to pick up because of these macro events. We really think it's going to impact, first and foremost, probably commercial and personal auto. And if you go to commercial lines with the one-year policy we have in commercial lines, we can be a little more responsive with that -- with the pricing.

很快，當我們思考這個問題時，如果你再看看關稅和我們的想法——讓我們把它削減到通貨膨脹水平。我們只能說，通貨膨脹會因這些宏觀事件而上升。我們確實認為它首先可能會對商用和私家汽車產生影響。如果您採用我們在商業線路中提供的一年政策進入商業線路，我們可以對此做出更積極的回應—在定價方面。

Got it. Makes sense. So switching gears to home a bit and just kind of overall catastrophes. Given the significant size of the catastrophes early on in the year due to California, is Cincy considering buying additional reinsurance temporarily to protect itself through the remainder of the contract of your reinsurance terms.

知道了。有道理。因此，稍微轉換話題，回到家裡，看看整體的災難。鑑於今年年初加州發生的重大災難，辛辛那提市是否考慮暫時購買額外的再保險，以便在再保險合約剩餘期限內保護自己。

Well, obviously, we had a reinstatement here after this first event. When we actually -- on a gross basis, Mike, we went through about, let's say, half of our property cat reinsurance tower for 2025. So that has all been reinstated. And we don't have any plans right now to purchase anything additional. It's something that we always are looking at just as far as capital management and how to manage cat, something we think about and talk about regularly, but nothing to report on to you this morning.

嗯，顯然，在第一次事件之後我們就恢復了。麥克，實際上，從總體上看，我們已經用掉了大約一半的 2025 年財產巨災再保險費用。所以一切都恢復了。我們目前還沒有任何購買任何額外產品的計劃。這是我們一直在關注的資本管理和如何管理巨災問題，也是我們經常思考和談論的問題，但今天早上沒有什麼可以向你們報告的。

Okay. Got it. And just a follow-up, not that we focus on topline growth, it's more about profitable growth. But now that folks have had more time to digest the events in California, when we -- as you, has your mood or outlook changed a bit in terms of the topline growth trajectory in personal lines, I know a lot of that growth is emanated out of California, I think we can see -- if we adjust your 1Q numbers for some of the reinstatement stuff, it does feel like there was a slowdown in potentially in topline growth in personal lines as well this quarter. Any thoughts there?

好的。知道了。順便問一下，我們關注的不是營收成長，而是利潤成長。但是現在人們有更多的時間來消化加州發生的事件，當我們 - 正如您一樣，您對個人險的營收成長軌蹟的情緒或觀點是否發生了一些變化，我知道很多增長都來自加利福尼亞州，我想我們可以看到 - 如果我們根據一些恢復情況調整您的第一季度數據，確實感覺本季度個人險的營收增長也可能有所放緩。有什麼想法嗎？

Yeah. I would tell you zero dilution of enthusiasm for any of our lines of business countrywide. We've got a proven business model, Mike, with our agency distribution. We've got the underwriting talent expertise, we've got pricing sophistication and segmentation. You've probably heard me talk in the past about a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity in personal lines. We still think that that exists. Like after every major cat event, we do a deep dive.

是的。我可以告訴你們，全國範圍內，人們對我們任何業務線的熱情都沒有絲毫減弱。麥克，透過代理商分銷，我們擁有一套行之有效的商業模式。我們擁有承保人才的專業知識，我們擁有定價的成熟度和細分。您可能曾經聽我談論過個人領域中千載難逢的機會。我們仍然認為它存在。就像每次發生重大貓事之後一樣，我們都會進行深入研究。

California obviously is no exception. We look for lessons learned, and then we adjust our plan accordingly. And we've got some lessons learned already in California. We've already taken a little bit of action on that, and that will continue to evolve. And I'm confident that you'll continue to see continued tweaks there.

加州顯然也不例外。我們尋找經驗教訓，然後相應地調整我們的計劃。我們已經在加州吸取了一些教訓。我們已經對此採取了一些行動，並將繼續發展。我相信你會繼續看到那裡不斷的調整。

As far as topline new business growth in personal lines, it's really being impacted by, again, this once-in-a-lifetime opportunity that I've been talking about the last two or three years. It's just getting to be a tougher comp year over year. On a pure new business dollar amount for personal lines, it's still very strong.

就個人險新業務的成長而言，它確實受到了過去兩三年來我一直在談論的千載難逢的機會的影響。競爭一年比一年激烈。就個人險的純新業務金額而言，它仍然非常強勁。

Now specifically to California, yes, it's true, after the loss as we're doing the deep dive and the lessons learned, we've been more conservative on new business in workers’ compensation, or excuse me, in California personal lines business here in the first quarter. And that has put pressure on the new business growth. I mean, Mike hit on the net written premium and what the reinstatement premiums did there. That brought down personal lines' net written premium growth by 11 full points in the quarter.

現在具體到加州，是的，確實如此，在經歷了損失之後，我們正在深入研究並吸取教訓，在第一季度，我們對工人賠償的新業務，或者對不起，在加州的個人險業務上，採取了更加保守的態度。這給新業務成長帶來了壓力。我的意思是，麥克談到了淨承保保費以及恢復保費的作用。這使得本季個人險淨承保保費成長率下降了整整 11 個百分點。

Josh Shanker, Bank of America.

美國銀行的喬希·尚克（Josh Shanker）。

I think we've talked about this before, but I need an update on strategy a little bit. So over the past three quarters, you've taken about $180 million, $190 million of cat losses in the reinsurance segment. You generated about $300 million -- $600 million in premium per year in that segment. Reinsurance was supposed to be a diversifier. Is it still a diversifier?

我想我們之前已經討論過這個問題，但我需要稍微更新策略。因此，在過去三個季度中，您在再保險領域承受了約 1.8 億美元、1.9 億美元的巨額損失。您在該領域每年創造的保費收入約為 3 億至 6 億美元。再保險本應是多元化投資。它還是一個多元化工具嗎？

Does it still makes sense with the volatility that comes with it, especially as some people believe that property cat pricing is going to be declining in the foreseeable future? How do you think about those things?

考慮到隨之而來的波動性，它是否仍然有意義，特別是當一些人認為財產巨災保險定價在可預見的未來將會下降時？您對這些事情有什麼看法？

Yeah. Thanks, Josh, for the question. Appreciate it. I can start out here and then Mike can jump in if he would like. Yes, we think that it is still core to what we do.

是的。謝謝喬希提出這個問題。非常感謝。我可以從這裡開始，然後如果 Mike 願意的話，他可以加入。是的，我們認為這仍然是我們工作的核心。

We are looking, and we've talked about this in the past. It's an assumed reinsurance operation and has its own separate balance sheet. We are looking for non-correlated business. And if you just look at the wildfires, just kind of in general, the majority of the losses that Cincinnati Re had in the wildfire, on our business, was on national programs that covered countrywide.

我們正在尋找，並且我們過去曾討論過這個問題。它是一種假定的再保險業務，有自己的獨立資產負債表。我們正在尋找不相關的業務。如果你只看野火，總的來說，辛辛那提再保險公司在野火中遭受的大部分損失，對我們的業務來說，都是在覆蓋全國的全國性計畫中。

So really, what they would do is they would limit any correlation to high net worth that we would have in California. You're right, it comes with volatility. But inception to date, I believe, and Mike can check me on this, I believe inception to date, our combined ratio in Cincinnati Re is 95.8. I think that's right. So it's got volatility with it.

所以實際上，他們會做的是限制與加州高淨值的任何關聯。你說得對，它伴隨著波動。但我相信，從成立至今，麥克可以向我核實一下，我相信從成立至今，辛辛那提再保險公司的綜合比率是 95.8。我認為那是對的。因此它具有波動性。

But look at the balance sheet that we have and that we've continued to grow, and we think that it provides diversifying revenue and profit streams for us.

但看看我們的資產負債表，我們一直在持續成長，我們認為這為我們提供了多樣化的收入和利潤來源。

Okay. And I've covered this stock for a long time, I think when I first got involved in the story, John Schiff, Jr., was passing the helm to Ken. And it really felt like a family operation, and maybe it still does. When I see that you appointed 134 new agencies in the first quarter, congratulations on that, by the way. But how does that impact the culture of what Cincinnati Financial is?

好的。我關注這隻股票已經很長時間了，我記得當我第一次參與這個故事時，小約翰·希夫 (John Schiff, Jr.) 正在將掌舵權移交給肯。它確實感覺像是一個家庭經營的生意，也許現在仍然如此。當我看到你們在第一季任命了 134 家新代理商時，順便說一句，我對此表示祝賀。但這會對辛辛那提金融的文化產生什麼影響呢？

Yeah. Thanks, Josh. I've been here 33 years, and I still look at it as a family feel. Yeah, the key there, Josh, is that we appoint high-quality agencies that are aligned with Cincinnati that we see value in the way they operate professionally in their community, and they see value in a company like Cincinnati that wants to make decisions locally, handle claims fast, fair, and personally. So we see alignment, appointing more agencies is really going to fuel the growth for the company into the future.

是的。謝謝，喬希。我在這裡已經 33 年了，我仍然覺得這裡就像一個家。是的，喬希，關鍵在於我們任命與辛辛那提保持一致的高品質機構，我們看到他們在社區中專業運作的方式的價值，而他們也看到像辛辛那提這樣的公司的價值，希望在當地做出決策，快速、公平、親自處理索賠。因此，我們認為，任命更多的代理商確實會推動公司未來的成長。

And the way you do it and keep it as a family feel is that we're still a regional company. We build everything around a field marketing rep, a field marketing territory. So every single agent that we appoint, we talk about they need to get the Cincinnati experience, and that means our local presence, starting with that field rep who's in their office who's promoting all aspects of Cincinnati Insurance, but their primary function is to underwrite and price new commercial lines business on the spot, that ease of doing business. The local claims rep who's there who builds a relationship, who handles those claims, fast, fair, and personal. It's the same exact strategy that has served us well with 2,000 agents. It will serve us well as we continue to appoint more and more.

而你這樣做並保持家庭氛圍的方式表明我們仍然是一家地區性公司。我們圍繞著現場行銷代表、現場行銷區域來建構一切。因此，我們任命的每一位代理人，我們都告訴他們，他們需要獲得辛辛那提的經驗，這意味著我們的本地存在，從辦公室裡的現場代表開始，負責推廣辛辛那提保險的各個方面，但他們的主要職責是現場承保和定價新的商業險業務，以便於開展業務。當地的索賠代表會與客戶建立關係，快速、公正、個人化地處理這些索賠。這項策略與我們 2,000 名代理商的策略完全一致。隨著我們繼續任命越來越多的人，它將為我們提供良好的服務。

And again, I can't emphasize enough. It's not the number of agencies that we'll have over time that defines franchise value, I guess. It's the quality of those agencies and the professionalism and the alignment that they have with Cincinnati. It's a long-winded answer, Josh, but we can continue to repeat what we do over and over again through expanded distribution.

我再強調一遍，這一點再怎麼強調也不為過。我想，特許經營權的價值並不是由我們隨著時間的推移所擁有的代理商的數量來決定的。這些機構的品質、專業性以及他們與辛辛那提的一致性。喬希，這是一個冗長的答案，但我們可以透過擴大分銷來一遍又一遍地重複我們所做的事情。

(Operator Instructions) Paul Newsome, Piper Sandler.

（操作員指示）保羅·紐瑟姆、派珀·桑德勒。

I was just going to ask a question about topical issues this quarter. One is sort of a competitive environment sort of question. We've heard a lot about larger account being more competitive incrementally on some of the specialty lines in particular, really even within the last quarter. I know Cincinnati is overwhelmingly a middle market commercial writer, but you have been moving up towards the larger end.

我只是想問一個有關本季熱點問題的問題。一個是競爭環境方面的問題。我們聽到很多關於大客戶在某些專業領域逐漸變得更具競爭力的消息，甚至在上個季度也是如此。我知道辛辛那提主要是一家中階市場商業作家，但您一直在向高端市場邁進。

Is it that your experience that you're seeing some similar dynamics that our folks are that middle market is holding in, but the larger you get, the more competitive it has been?

您是否看到過與我們類似的動態，即中端市場正在保持，但規模越大，競爭就越激烈？

Yeah. I think that's very fair, Paul. And you've described it well. I always like to say, especially, I'll specifically talk to commercial lines. I'd say it's still rational and orderly as you can see just by the pricing that we're getting.

是的。我認為這非常公平，保羅。你描述得很好。我總是喜歡說，特別是，我會專門談論商業線路。我想說它仍然是合理且有序的，正如您從我們獲得的定價中看到的那樣。

I think what's driving that is just that the headwinds that are out there with cat, legal system abuse, or social inflation, however you want to look at that. I don't see -- I personally don't see an end. It will get to an inflection point at some point. All things do, but that's still putting headwind pressure on underwriting and pricing.

我認為，造成這種情況的原因是，無論你怎麼看待這些問題，都存在著諸如貓、法律制度濫用或社會通貨膨脹等不利因素。我看不到——就我個人而言，我看不到盡頭。在某個時候它會到達一個轉折點。所有的事情都是如此，但這仍然為承保和定價帶來阻力。

And so I'd say that the commercial market space is rational and orderly. When you get up into larger accounts, yeah, there's no doubt that the pressure or the competition increases there. But I would say what we call larger accounts for commercial lines, isn't getting into that shared and layered, which we are experiencing with our Lloyd's syndicate. Our Lloyd's syndicate CGU, does write a lot of direct or a fair amount of direct in fac or shared and layered, and that's what's driving the 9% written premiums down as that market has gotten soft, has gotten competitive, and they're having to really show a stringent underwriting discipline, and so it's putting pressure on that.

所以我認為商業市場空間是合理有序的。當你獲得更大的帳戶時，是的，毫無疑問壓力或競爭會增加。但我想說的是，我們所說的商業線路的大額帳戶，並沒有進入我們在勞合社辛迪加中經歷的那種共享和分層狀態。我們的勞合社辛迪加現金產出單元 (CGU) 確實承保了大量的直接保險或相當數量的直接保險或共享和分層保險，這就是導致 9% 的承保保費下降的原因，因為市場已經變得疲軟，競爭變得激烈，他們必須真正表現出嚴格的承保紀律，所以這給他們帶來了壓力。

Personal lines, you didn't ask about personal lines, but I'd throw it out there. That market has not -- I haven't seen any waning in that. That's under -- it's still both middle market and high net worth, I think, are both under a tremendous amount of pressure. And we expect that pricing will continue to earn in there, and our growth throughout the rest of the year will be strong.

個人台詞，你沒有問到個人台詞，但我會把它拋在那裡。那個市場沒有——我還沒有看到它有任何衰退。我認為，中端市場和高淨值市場都面臨著巨大的壓力。我們預計定價將繼續保持穩定，並且今年剩餘時間我們的成長將會強勁。

Right. Another hot button question for the quarter has been reserve issues, and you've talked a lot about casualty already. Could you maybe give us a few points on the other area that commercial auto reserve issues and trends that seem to be becoming the other hot issue in the quarter, which is kind of what you're seeing and both from internal as well as from the perspective of the industry.

正確的。本季的另一個熱門問題是儲備問題，您已經談了很多關於傷亡的問題。您能否就商業汽車儲備問題和趨勢等其他領域為我們提供一些觀點，這些問題和趨勢似乎正在成為本季度的另一個熱門議題，這正是您從內部和行業角度所看到的。

Sure, Paul. This is Mike, and thanks for the question. And maybe from a high level, our $91 million of favorable development, it really was spread out. Most of it was from, as I mentioned in my previous remarks, 2024. But yes, you go back only -- we did have $13 million was reserve strengthening if you go back a little further, to 2021 and prior. So it's only $13 million that's spread out throughout the various years. Commercial had favorable development of $43 million, the largest favorable development was commercial property at $35 million.

當然，保羅。我是麥克，謝謝你的提問。也許從高層次來看，我們的 9,100 萬美元的有利發展確實分散了。正如我在之前的評論中提到的那樣，其中大部分是來自 2024 年。但是的，你只需回顧一下——如果你回顧一下，即 2021 年及之前，我們確實有 1300 萬美元用於加強儲備。因此，只有 1,300 萬美元分散在各個年份。商業有利發展金額為 4300 萬美元，其中最大的有利發展是商業房地產，為 3500 萬美元。

The commercial auto, which is what you just mentioned there, so $7 million of reserve strengthening. But you got to also think about that $7 million. Our total reserve balance there is like $935 million. So it's a very small, under one percent, of reserve strengthening there.

商用汽車，就是您剛才提到的，因此需要 700 萬美元的儲備金。但你也得考慮那 700 萬美元。我們在那裡的總儲備餘額約為 9.35 億美元。因此，那裡的儲備增加幅度很小，不到 1%。

And there -- it was just really a little bit of a loss emergence that was higher than what we expected looking back at the years 2019 through 2021. The other years didn't see much. And so that's where that was really focused on.

而且 — — 這確實只是出現了一點點損失，高於我們對 2019 年至 2021 年的預期。其他年份則沒有太多表現。這就是我們真正關注的重點。

But if you go back and you look at the total personal lines, Cincy Re, E&S, or Cincinnati Global, all of those developed favorably somewhere between almost $10 million to $20 million. So I think things were good. We're following a consistent process, and we're really happy with where we're at.

但如果你回過頭來看看辛辛那提再保險公司、E&S 或辛辛那提全球保險公司的個人險種總額，你會發現它們都發展得不錯，大約在 1000 萬美元到 2000 萬美元之間。所以我認為事情很好。我們遵循一致的流程，並對目前的狀況感到非常滿意。

(inaudible) related to the first question about the environment. Excess and surplus line has been obviously a big business for you guys. That's another hot button topic of competitive issues. Anything you're seeing in your book that would be notable individually from a competitive perspective or market wise from a competitive perspective?

（聽不清楚）與第一個關於環境的問題有關。顯然，超額和剩餘線路對你們來說是一筆大生意。這是競爭問題的另一個熱門話題。您在書中看到的任何內容從競爭角度或從市場角度來看都是值得注意的嗎？

Yeah. Paul, I think it tracks what you're hearing with commercial lines, just the larger accounts, you see more competitive pressure on. But our flow of business there, the new business opportunities has stayed strong. And as you can see, the growth and the profitability has stayed very consistent over time and just couldn't be more confident in that business, too.

是的。保羅，我認為它與你在商業線路中聽到的類似，只是帳戶越大，競爭壓力就越大。但我們在那裡的業務流量和新的商業機會依然強勁。如您所見，成長和獲利能力一直保持非常穩定，而且我對該業務也充滿信心。

Meyer Shields, KBW.

邁耶希爾茲，KBW。

Two, I hope, very quick questions. One, in industry-wise, like ISO fast-track data, we're seeing some reflection of an unusually large decrease in personal auto physical damage in frequency. And I'm wondering whether (technical difficulty)

我希望這兩個問題都很簡單。首先，從產業角度來看，例如 ISO 快速通道數據，我們看到個人汽車物理損壞頻率出現異常大幅下降。我想知道（技術難度）

Yeah. Meyer, Steve Spray. No, I can't say that we've seen any similar trend in the ISO physical damage or maybe even -- I don't have those numbers in front of me to match up with what we have.

是的。邁耶，史蒂夫·斯普雷。不，我不能說我們在 ISO 物理損壞中看到了任何類似的趨勢，甚至可能——我面前沒有那些數字來與我們所擁有的數字相匹配。

Okay. Perfect. Fair enough. Second question is on Cincinnati Re. So you had solid growth even excluding the reinstatement of premiums. I was hoping you give us a sense in terms (technical difficulty) that growth is more casualty or property focused?

好的。完美的。很公平。第二個問題是關於辛辛那提再保險公司的。因此，即使不考慮恢復保費，您的收入仍能穩健成長。我希望您能從技術難度的角度讓我們了解，成長是更專注於意外事件還是更專注於財產？

Well, Mike can dig in here. I can tell you, we have kind of pared back over the last several years on the property piece, in Cincinnati Re, property is about 33% of what we do. Casualty is roughly 42% and specialty is another 25%. There can be some seasonality or some noise there, too, Meyer, with the Cincinnati Re with the premiums just based on the estimated primary ceding premium and then what we actually take in...

好吧，麥克可以深入研究一下。我可以告訴你，在過去幾年裡，我們在房地產業務上有所削減，在辛辛那提再保險公司，房地產業務約占我們業務的 33%。傷亡人數約佔 42%，特殊情況則佔 25%。邁耶，辛辛那提再保險公司的保費可能也存在一些季節性或噪音，只是基於估計的主要分保費，然後我們實際收取的費用...

Yes. Yes, I would agree with that, Steve. And if I'm looking at, let's say, the earned premiums between property casualty specialty. For the first quarter, we were really about right on top of where we were at on a year-to-date basis for 2024 between those breakouts. So in the first quarter, have not seen a drift from year-to-date 2024 when it comes to property, casualty or specialty within Cincy Re.

是的。是的，我同意，史蒂夫。如果我查看財產意外險專業險種之間的已賺保費。就第一季而言，我們實際上正處於 2024 年年初至今的水平之上。因此，在第一季度，辛辛那提再保險公司 (Cincy Re) 的財產險、意外險或特殊險方面與 2024 年年初至今相比沒有出現任何變化。

Mike Zaremski, BMO.

麥克·扎雷姆斯基，BMO。

Sorry to ask maybe what are perceived to be negative questions in the context of great overall results. But just curious, anything in personal lines, maybe umbrella, other personal lines with large losses or anything that came through with the loss ratio there you like to call out?

抱歉，在整體成績優異的情況下，這些問題可能被認為是負面的。但只是好奇，您想了解一下個人險種，也許是繖形險，其他個人險種的損失較大，或者任何與損失率有關的事情嗎？

Yes. Sure, Mike, and good catch there. It's -- I would chalk it up as normal volatility severity. But if you look in the supplemental there on the other portion. In this case, it was one inland marine claim that is driving that.

是的。當然，麥克，你看，這球打得真好。我認為這是正常的波動嚴重程度。但如果你看一下補充資料，你會發現另一部分。在這種情況下，正是一項內陸海洋索賠推動了這項進程。

And it's about 14 points of that current accident year ex cat.

這是當前事故年份前貓的約 14 分。

Got it. Inland Marine, just to clarify what type of policy is that?

知道了。內陸航運，只是想澄清一下這是什麼類型的政策？

Yes, it's a watercraft. Beyond that, I wouldn't go -- I wouldn't want to go any deeper on an individual claim.

是的，它是一艘船。除此之外，我不會再深入探討個人理賠問題。

This concludes our question-and-answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to Steve Spray, CEO, for any closing remarks.

我們的問答環節到此結束。我想將會議交還給執行長史蒂夫·斯普雷 (Steve Spray) 來做最後發言。

Thank you, Dorwin, and thank you all for joining us today. We hope to see some of you at our Annual Meeting of Shareholders this Saturday, May 3, at the Cincinnati Art Museum. You're also welcome to listen to our webcast of the meeting available at investors.cinfin.com. We also look forward to speaking with all of you again on our second-quarter call. Have a great day.

謝謝你，多爾溫，也謝謝大家今天加入我們。我們希望在 5 月 3 日星期六於辛辛那提藝術博物館舉行的年度股東大會上見到你們。也歡迎您收聽我們在 investors.cinfin.com 上提供的會議網路直播。我們也期待在第二季電話會議上再次與大家交談。祝你有美好的一天。

The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.

會議現已結束。感謝您參加今天的演講。您現在可以斷開連線。