Ciena Corp (CIEN) 2020 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by, and welcome to the Ciena Fiscal Q3 2020 Financial Results Conference Call. (Operator Instructions)

女士們、先生們，感謝各位的耐心等待，歡迎參加Ciena 2020財年第三季財務業績電話會議。（操作說明）

I would now like to hand today's conference over to Gregg Lampf. Please go ahead.

現在我將今天的會議交給格雷格·蘭普夫主持。請繼續。

Thank you, Carmen. Good morning, and welcome to Ciena's 2020 Fiscal Third Quarter Review. We are conducting today's call from various remote locations. On the call today is Gary Smith, President and CEO; and Jim Moylan, CFO. Scott McFeely, our Senior Vice President of Global Products and Services, is also with us for Q&A.

謝謝你，卡門。早安，歡迎收看Ciena 2020財年第三季回顧。我們今天將在不同的遠端地點進行電話會議。今天參加電話會議的有總裁兼執行長 Gary Smith 和財務長 Jim Moylan。我們的全球產品和服務資深副總裁 Scott McFeely 也來到現場，參與問答環節。

In addition to this call and the press release, we have posted to the Investors section of our website an accompanying investor presentation that reflects this discussion as well as certain highlighted items from the quarter. Our comments today speak to our fiscal Q3 2020 performance, developments in our business and our view on current market dynamics, including with respect to COVID-19 as well as our outlook. Today's discussion includes certain adjusted or non-GAAP measures of Ciena's results of operations. A detailed reconciliation of these non-GAAP measures to our GAAP results is included in today's press release.

除了本次電話會議和新聞稿之外，我們還在網站的投資者關係部分發布了一份配套的投資者演示文稿，其中反映了本次討論以及本季度的一些重點項目。我們今天的評論涉及我們 2020 財年第三季的業績、業務發展以及我們對當前市場動態的看法，包括 COVID-19 的影響以及我們的展望。今天的討論包括Ciena公司經營績效的某些調整後指標或非GAAP指標。今天的新聞稿中包含了這些非GAAP指標與我們的GAAP績效的詳細調整表。

Before turning the call over to Gary, I'll remind you that during this call, we'll be making certain forward-looking statements. Such statements, including our guidance and long-term financial targets, are based on current expectations, forecasts and assumptions regarding the company and its markets, which include risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from the statements discussed today. These statements should be viewed in the context of the risk factors detailed in our most recent 10-Q filing as well as in our upcoming 10-Q, which is required to be filed with the SEC by September 11. We expect to file by that date. Ciena assumes no obligation to update the information discussed in this conference call, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise.

在將電話交給 Gary 之前，我要提醒各位，在本次通話中，我們將做出一些前瞻性陳述。此類聲明，包括我們的指導和長期財務目標，均基於公司及其市場的當前預期、預測和假設，其中包含可能導致實際結果與今天討論的聲明存在重大差異的風險和不確定性。這些聲明應結合我們最新的 10-Q 文件以及即將提交給美國證券交易委員會 (SEC) 的 10-Q 文件中詳述的風險因素來理解，該 10-Q 文件必須在 9 月 11 日之前提交。我們預計將在該日期前提交文件。Ciena 不承擔因新資訊、未來事件或其他原因而更新本次電話會議中所討論資訊的義務。

As always, we will allow for as much Q&A as possible today. (Operator Instructions)

像往常一樣，我們今天將盡可能地安排問答環節。（操作說明）

With that, I'll turn the call over to Gary.

接下來，我將把電話交給加里。

Thanks, Gregg, and good morning, everyone. Today, we delivered outstanding third quarter results across the board. And similar to last quarter, our performance in Q3 demonstrates that our strategy focused on innovation leadership, diversification and global scale has enabled us to manage well through the challenges of the current environment. The Ciena team has been a key element of our performance, and businesses, as we know, are all about people. Their focus, resilience and drive to innovate and serve our customers is unrivaled in the industry. I remain incredibly proud of our global workforce and their collective efforts, including their continued volunteerism and charitable activities.

謝謝格雷格，大家早安。今天，我們全面公佈了出色的第三季業績。與上個季度類似，我們第三季的業績表明，我們以創新領導地位、多元化和全球規模為重點的策略使我們能夠很好地應對當前環境的挑戰。Ciena 團隊是我們績效的關鍵要素，而我們都知道，企業的一切都是由人組成的。他們在創新和服務客戶方面的專注力、韌性和動力在業界是無與倫比的。我依然為我們全球的員工隊伍及其集體努力感到無比自豪，包括他們持續的志願服務和慈善活動。

Notwithstanding a strong quarterly performance and the resiliency of our business model, we are seeing negative effects of the pandemic, and greater economic uncertainty weigh on our near-term outlook.

儘管季度業績強勁，且我們的商業模式具有韌性，但我們仍感受到疫情帶來的負面影響，而日益加劇的經濟不確定性也對我們的近期前景構成壓力。

We believe that this is being driven by an impact on the velocity and, to some extent, deprioritization of new business initiatives in general as well as an increasing customer caution on budget decisions and the timing of spend, namely with service providers as they are, in turn, beginning to feel the negative effects from large segments of their enterprise business.

我們認為，這主要是由於新業務計劃的速度受到影響，並在一定程度上降低了其優先級，以及客戶在預算決策和支出時間方面越來越謹慎，特別是對於服務提供者而言，因為他們反過來也開始感受到企業業務很大一部分帶來的負面影響。

As we said last quarter, despite the favorable increase in bandwidth requirements, we are not immune to these dynamics as they continue to play out in the market, and we will provide more color and perspectives on this momentarily. Firstly, I'd like to discuss the key performance metrics in our third quarter and provide a few highlights from across the business that really emphasize the inherent resilience and competitive strength of our business. So far this year, we believe we've taken an additional 1-plus percent of global market share.

正如我們上個季度所說，儘管頻寬需求出現了有利的成長，但我們也無法免受這些市場動態的影響，這些動態仍在繼續上演，我們稍後將對此提供更多細節和觀點。首先，我想討論我們第三季的關鍵績效指標，並重點介紹我們業務中一些真正體現我們業務固有韌性和競爭優勢的亮點。今年到目前為止，我們相信我們已經獲得了超過 1% 的全球市場份額。

And I would stress that this is largely without the benefit of an increasing number of significant strategic design wins that we have yet been able to monetize, given the current climate. Accordingly, we delivered outstanding financial performance in Q3. We had a great revenue quarter, and our gross margin, OpEx management and operating margin were all very strong and, in fact, better than expected.

而我想強調的是，鑑於目前的經濟環境，我們還沒有能夠將越來越多的重大戰略設計成果轉化為實際收益，而這在很大程度上還沒有帶來任何好處。因此，我們在第三季取得了優異的財務表現。我們本季營收表現出色，毛利率、營運支出管理和營業利潤率都非常強勁，實際上都超出了預期。

Indeed, our adjusted operating margin exceeded 22%. And I think this really demonstrates the differentiated operating leverage in our business model that we've created. And we had excellent cash flow, finishing the quarter with approximately $1.2 billion in cash. Our performance this quarter also reinforced our innovation leadership and strong competitive position in critical areas of the network. Our latest-generation modem, WaveLogic 5, remains the only 800-gig solution available in the market and is in volume production today. We are not just sampling or trialing this leading technology. We're actually shipping it for commercial deployments with a range of customers, including service providers, web scalers, subsea operators and research and education institutions. In fact, we've already secured roughly 50 design wins for WaveLogic 5 Extreme, and this is a rate faster than previous generations as the networks today are more ready than before for a step function in capacity to support demand.

事實上，我們調整後的營業利益率超過了 22%。我認為這真正體現了我們所創造的商業模式中差異化的營運槓桿作用。我們的現金流狀況良好，季度末現金餘額約為 12 億美元。本季我們的業績也鞏固了我們在網路關鍵領域的創新領導地位和強大的競爭地位。我們最新一代的數據機 WaveLogic 5 仍然是市場上唯一一款 800G 的解決方案，目前已投入大量生產。我們並非只是對這項領先技術進行抽樣或試用。我們實際上正在向包括服務提供者、網路擴展商、海底運營商以及研究和教育機構在內的各類客戶交付該產品，用於商業部署。事實上，我們已經獲得了大約 50 個 WaveLogic 5 Extreme 的設計訂單，而且這一速度比以往任何一代都要快，因為如今的網路比以往更能適應容量的階躍式增長，從而支持需求。

In just over 3 months of commercial availability, we've shipped more than 1,000 WaveLogic 5 coherent modems to almost 40 customers around the globe, with several of those networks already carrying live traffic.

在上市短短 3 個多月的時間裡，我們已經向全球近 40 家客戶交付了 1000 多台 WaveLogic 5 相干調變解調器，其中幾家客戶的網路已經投入實際使用。

I think this is a strong testament to our innovation leadership and clear validation of our ability to execute and deliver against aggressive technology roadmaps, supported by a very robust supply chain. In addition to our market-leading optical performance, we had several new wins in Q3 for our packet business. We now have more than a dozen customers for our Adaptive IP solutions, including Telefónica UK and SK Telink, which we announced in Q3. And this is amongst additional Tier 1 service providers who valued our automated, open and lean approach to IP architectures. And of course, we also continue to see strength with existing customers of our packet portfolio like AT&T.

我認為這有力地證明了我們在創新領域的領導地位，也清楚地驗證了我們有能力執行並實現雄心勃勃的技術路線圖，而這一切都離不開我們強大的供應鏈的支持。除了我們市場領先的光傳輸性能外，我們在第三季的數據包業務方面也取得了幾個新的訂單。目前，我們的自適應 IP 解決方案已擁有十幾家客戶，其中包括我們在第三季宣布的 Telefónica UK 和 SK Telink。此外，還有其他一級服務供應商也對我們自動化、開放和精簡的 IP 架構方法表示讚賞。當然，我們也持續看到現有資料包產品組合的客戶（例如 AT&T）的強勁表現。

On the Blue Planet side, in Q3, we delivered on a strategic mobile transformation in the Asia Pacific region, secured significant upsell business with several large service provider customers domestically and internationally and added a number of new enterprise logos as well.

在 Blue Planet 方面，第三季我們在亞太地區實現了策略性的行動轉型，與國內外多家大型服務供應商客戶達成了重要的追加銷售業務，並新增了多個企業客戶。

Now moving to the overall market. Secular demand drivers for connectivity obviously remained very much intact as network traffic grows and the adoption of cloud architectures continues at pace. So the fundamentals of our business are absolutely unchanged as we look to the future. Nevertheless, as I alluded to in my opening remarks, late in the fiscal third quarter, we began to see some of the effects of COVID-19 manifest in our business to a greater degree than anticipated as well as increased economic uncertainty.

現在來看整體市場。隨著網路流量的成長和雲端架構的快速普及，網路連線的長期需求驅動因素顯然依然保持不變。因此，展望未來，我們業務的基本面絕對沒有改變。然而，正如我在開場白中提到的，在第三財季後期，我們開始看到 COVID-19 對我們業務的一些影響比預期的要大，經濟不確定性也隨之增加。

Specifically, we began to experience a meaningful slowdown in orders and a softening of our outlook. I would stress that the decline is broad-based across our service providers customers globally whose spend now appears to have been somewhat front-end loaded in the calendar year, resulting in lower orders in our third quarter from a number of our large customers in this segment. We believe the softness in our order flow and our reduced visibility is the result of a couple of customer-related dynamics.

具體來說，我們開始感受到訂單量明顯放緩，我們的前景也變得黯淡。我想強調的是，這種下滑是全球服務提供者客戶的普遍現象，他們的支出似乎在年初就有所增加，導致我們第三季度來自該領域許多大客戶的訂單減少。我們認為訂單流的疲軟和可見性的降低是由一些與客戶相關的動態因素所造成的。

Firstly, COVID-19 continues to have an adverse impact on the velocity of business in general and particularly new business initiatives. Limitation on physical access at ours and our technology partner sites continue to create challenges for executing on some network projects that we've already won. And generally, in this uncertain environment, customers' ability and willingness to move forward with new business initiatives is constrained. In fact, the best evidence for this dynamic is evident in our recent gross margin performance, which reflects a larger percentage of revenue from existing businesses versus from new design wins and early life-in projects which tend to carry somewhat lower margins.

首先，COVID-19 疫情持續對整體商業活動速度，特別是新業務拓展活動的速度產生不利影響。由於我們及我們的技術合作夥伴的辦公室實體存取受限，我們已經贏得的一些網路專案的執行仍然面臨挑戰。總的來說，在這種不確定的環境下，客戶推動新業務計畫的能力和意願都受到了限制。事實上，這種動態的最佳證據體現在我們最近的毛利率表現上，這反映出現有業務的收入佔比更高，而新設計訂單和早期投產項目的收入佔比則往往較低。

The second dynamic is customers have grown more cautious about the near-term outlook for their businesses and are beginning to exercise greater restraint in respect to their CapEx spend. This is particularly evident with our service provider and MSO customers as certain large segments of their enterprise businesses are being negatively impacted by the pandemic and economic uncertainties. Overall, I would say that customers are running their networks hotter, and they are carefully prioritizing where and when to add network capabilities. And they've proven their ability to do this for extended periods of time, as we've seen before with previous economic conditions that are challenging.

第二個動態是，客戶對近期業務前景變得更加謹慎，並開始在資本支出方面更加克制。這一點在我們的服務供應商和MSO客戶中尤其明顯，因為他們企業業務的某些較大部分正受到疫情和經濟不確定性的負面影響。總的來說，我認為客戶正在提高網路運行負荷，並且他們會仔細考慮何時何地增加網路功能。他們已經證明了自己有能力在較長時間內做到這一點，正如我們以前在充滿挑戰的經濟環境下所看到的那樣。

Conversely with our webscale customers, the year has pretty much so far played out as we expected directionally with some COVID-related reduction in spending. Specifically, in fiscal 2020, as expected, one of our large webscale customers reduced its optical spend as it had some absorption and changes to its architecture, while I would stress that we've gained share, significant share with others, including a new significant architectural win with one of the major players that is new to Ciena.

相反，對於我們的網路規模客戶而言，今年到目前為止的發展基本上符合我們的預期方向，只是由於新冠疫情的影響，支出有所減少。具體來說，正如預期的那樣，在 2020 財年，我們的一家大型網路規模客戶減少了其光業務支出，因為它進行了一些吸收和架構變更。同時，我想強調的是，我們獲得了市場份額，與其他客戶相比，我們獲得了相當大的市場份額，包括與一家主要參與者達成了一項新的、重要的架構合作，這對 Ciena 來說是一個新的合作。

We now believe that overall optical spend growth in this webscale segment will be flat to low single digits for this year versus the 7% to 10% that was expected at the beginning of the year. And I would stress that our competitive position remains strong in this key vertical, and we remain confident that we have gained share in all of the other accounts despite 1 large customer absorbing during the year.

我們現在認為，今年該網路規模細分市場的整體光學支出成長將持平或低個位數，而年初預期的成長率為 7% 至 10%。我還要強調，我們在這一關鍵垂直領域的競爭地位依然強勁，而且我們仍然有信心，儘管今年有一位大客戶退出，但我們在所有其他客戶中都獲得了市場份額。

Therefore, overall market share continues to expand in this sector. While the strong diversity in our businesses generally enables us to manage through ebbs and flows in any 1 customer segment or geography, the breadth and magnitude of COVID-19 challenges and economic uncertainties are making it more difficult to do so. As a result of the broader economic conditions and related market dynamics, we now expect overall market optical growth, excluding China, will slow. In fact, we now believe that the market will be roughly flat to down for this year. And this dynamic has already been reflected in some of the latest industry analyst forecasts, and we expect that sentiment to continue.

因此，該行業的整體市場份額持續擴大。雖然我們業務的多元化程度很高，通常能夠幫助我們應對任何一個客戶群體或地區的波動，但 COVID-19 疫情帶來的挑戰和經濟不確定性的範圍和程度，使得應對這些挑戰變得更加困難。由於整體經濟狀況和相關市場動態的影響，我們現在預計，除中國以外，整體光學市場成長將會放緩。事實上，我們現在認為今年市場整體將持平或下跌。這種趨勢已經反映在一些最新的產業分析師預測中，我們預計這種趨勢將會持續下去。

Accordingly, we expect our orders and revenue to be adversely impacted for the next few quarters. However, I would stress that we believe that these challenges will be short-term in nature. With bandwidth demand increasing at approximately 25% to 30% year-on-year, we do not believe it will be possible for our customers to serve that level of demand for more than a few quarters without increasing capacity.

因此，我們預計未來幾季我們的訂單和收入將受到不利影響。但是，我想強調的是，我們認為這些挑戰本質上是短期的。由於頻寬需求每年增長約 25% 至 30%，我們認為，如果不增加容量，我們的客戶將無法在幾個季度內滿足這種需求水準。

Importantly, our competitive position is incredibly strong, and we remain the clear market share leader. We believe that uncertain conditions will only reinforce and possibly accelerate a flight to quality in terms of vendor selection and the ability to maintain investment velocity. And we have the scale, focus and balance sheet to not only continue differentiating ourselves, but also manage through these conditions effectively. And we intend to press down on that advantage to ensure both our own and our customers' long-term success.

重要的是，我們的競爭地位非常強大，我們仍然是市場佔有率的絕對領導者。我們認為，不確定的情況只會加強甚至可能加速供應商選擇和維持投資速度方面對品質的追求。我們擁有足夠的規模、專注力和財務實力，不僅可以持續保持差異化優勢，還能有效應對這些挑戰。我們將充分利用這一優勢，以確保我們自身和客戶的長期成功。

With that, I'll hand over to Jim to talk you through our Q3 results and outlook.

接下來，我將把麥克風交給吉姆，讓他為大家介紹我們第三季的業績和展望。

Thanks, Gary. Good morning, everyone. We're pleased to report another strong quarterly performance with our Q3 results today driven by continued execution of our strategy. Total Q3 revenue was $977 million, which, like last quarter, reflects strengths in our North America and EMEA regions. Q3 was also remarkable with respect to customer diversification with non-telco customers generating more than 43% of total revenue. This included direct webscale revenue, 25%; revenue, R&E and enterprise, 9%; MSOs, 9%.

謝謝你，加里。各位早安。我們很高興地宣布，在持續執行策略的推動下，我們今天公佈的第三季業績再次取得了強勁的季度表現。第三季總收入為 9.77 億美元，與上一季一樣，反映了我們在北美和歐洲、中東及非洲地區的優勢。第三季在客戶多元化方面也表現出色，非電信客戶貢獻了超過 43% 的總收入。其中包括直接網路規模收入，佔 25%；研發和企業收入，佔 9%；MSO，佔 9%。

Adjusted gross margin was 48%. This is higher than our estimate of current run rate gross margin. I'll remind you that we said last quarter, we believe our current run rate margin is between 43% and 45%. It's higher now because, as Gary mentioned, our revenue mix in the quarter included a larger percentage of revenue from existing business as opposed to revenue from new design wins and early-in-life projects, which tend to carry lower gross margins. Adjusted operating expense in the quarter was $251 million, lower than expected, mainly due to continued lower travel costs as a result of COVID-19.

調整後毛利率為48%。這高於我們對目前毛利率運轉率的預估。我提醒各位，我們在上個季度說過，我們認為我們目前的運行率利潤率在 43% 到 45% 之間。正如 Gary 所提到的，現在的毛利率更高，因為我們本季的收入組成中，來自現有業務的收入比例較高，而來自新設計訂單和早期項目的收入比例較低，後者的毛利率往往較低。本季調整後的營運支出為 2.51 億美元，低於預期，主要原因是受 COVID-19 疫情影響，差旅成本持續下降。

With respect to profitability measures, in Q3, we delivered adjusted operating margin of 22.4%, adjusted net income of $166 million and adjusted EPS of $1.06, above our expectations largely due to the higher gross margin. In addition, in Q3, cash from operations was very strong at $175 million. Adjusted EBITDA in Q3 was $241 million, and we generated free cash flow in the quarter of $116 million. We ended the quarter with approximately $1.2 billion in cash and investments. Our balance sheet remains a significant competitive differentiator, particularly in the current environment where financial strength and resiliency are critical, and it affords us the flexibility to continue investing in our business for the long term.

就獲利能力指標而言，第三季我們實現了調整後的營業利潤率為 22.4%，調整後的淨收入為 1.66 億美元，調整後的每股收益為 1.06 美元，均高於預期，這主要歸功於較高的毛利率。此外，第三季經營活動產生的現金流非常強勁，達到 1.75 億美元。第三季調整後 EBITDA 為 2.41 億美元，本季自由現金流為 1.16 億美元。本季末，我們擁有約12億美元的現金和投資。我們的資產負債表仍然是一項重要的競爭優勢，尤其是在當前財務實力和韌性至關重要的環境下，它使我們能夠靈活地繼續對業務進行長期投資。

Before I provide our guidance for the fourth quarter, I'll reiterate Gary's comments around long-term secular demand drivers. Specifically, that the underlying trend of growth in bandwidth demand remains intact and that our competitive position has never been stronger. However, the length and breadth of the COVID-19 pandemic and its effect on the global economy remains uncertain. And it is leading to more cautious customer spending behaviors and ongoing difficulties with operationalizing projects.

在給出第四季度業績指引之前，我想重申一下 Gary 關於長期世俗需求驅動因素的評論。具體而言，頻寬需求成長的潛在趨勢仍然保持不變，而且我們的競爭地位也從未如此強大。然而，新冠肺炎疫情的持續時間和影響範圍及其對全球經濟的影響仍不確定。這導致消費者消費行為更加謹慎，專案營運也持續面臨困難。

This resulted in Q3 orders coming in significantly below revenue, something we have not seen for some time; and a softening of our near-term outlook. Taking all of that into account, including our revised view on market growth for this year of roughly flat to down, we expect our Q4 performance will be as follows: revenue in the range of $800 million to $840 million; adjusted gross margin in a range of 46% to 48%; and adjusted operating expense of approximately $255 million to $260 million.

這導致第三季訂單量遠低於收入，這種情況我們已經很久沒有見過了；同時也導致我們的近期前景有所放緩。考慮到所有這些因素，包括我們對今年市場成長的修正看法（大致持平或下降），我們預計第四季業績如下：營收在 8 億美元至 8.4 億美元之間；調整後毛利率在 46% 至 48% 之間；調整後營運費用約為 2.55 億美元至 2.6 億美元。

Importantly, based on our year-to-date performance and these projections, we now expect to achieve approximately 17% adjusted operating margin for fiscal year 2020, above the revised target that we provided last quarter. This level of expected performance for fiscal 2020 reflects a combination of current market dynamics as well as deliberate initiatives we've taken in several key areas of our company over the last few years to reduce expenses. It also demonstrates the long-term operating leverage potential of our business model.

重要的是，根據我們今年迄今的業績和這些預測，我們現在預計 2020 財年調整後的營業利潤率將達到約 17%，高於我們上個季度提供的修訂目標。2020 財年的預期業績水準反映了當前市場動態以及我們公司在過去幾年中在幾個關鍵領域為降低成本而採取的一系列舉措。這也體現了我們商業模式的長期營運槓桿潛力。

I'll close by looking beyond Q4. Based on what we see todayand with our limited visibility, we expect current market dynamics, in particular, the challenges around restrained customer spending as well as business velocity will persist for a few quarters. As always, we remain focused on executing our strategy. We have experience and a consistent track record of successfully managing the business through difficult times. Today, we are an even stronger and more diversified business than during this challenging macroeconomic environment. And as a result of our fundamental strengths, we have the unique capability to continue investing in our business, in our people, in our products and in our customers, with a focus on managing the business for the long-term and continued market leadership. And we expect, even during this time of lower revenue to generate strong gross margins and profitability.

最後，我想展望一下第四季之後的情況。根據我們目前所見以及有限的視野，我們預計當前的市場動態，特別是客戶支出受限以及業務發展速度放緩等挑戰，將持續幾個季度。我們將一如既往地專注於執行我們的策略。我們擁有豐富的經驗和一致的成功業績，能夠幫助企業度過難關。如今，我們的業務比在當前充滿挑戰的宏觀經濟環境下更強大、更加多元化。憑藉我們自身的基本優勢，我們擁有獨特的能力，可以繼續投資我們的業務、員工、產品和客戶，專注於長期經營業務，並保持市場領先地位。我們預計，即使在收入較低的時期，也能產生強勁的毛利率和獲利能力。

Carmen, we will now take questions from the sell-side analysts.

卡門，現在我們將接受賣方分析師的提問。

And your first question will come from the line of Simon Leopold with Raymond James.

你的第一個問題將來自西蒙·利奧波德和雷蒙·詹姆斯的那條線索。

Great. So in terms of what's going on with these trends and what sounds like some absorption and weaker trends, is there a split in terms of what's going on U.S. telcos versus international telcos and the webscale. It sounds to me the impression I have is that the issue is more acute with U.S. telco and cable. And are you seeing that behavior extending outside the U.S. or into hyperscale?

偉大的。所以，就這些趨勢的發展以及聽起來像是吸收和較弱的趨勢而言，美國電信公司與國際電信公司和網路規模公司之間是否存在分歧。在我看來，這個問題在美國電信和有線電視領域更為嚴重。您是否發現這種行為已經蔓延到美國以外或超大規模領域？

Thanks, Simon. I would say that it's quite widespread, both domestically, North America and internationally, and it's service -- it's largely service providers and MSOs. So it's sort of across the board there. And I think the dynamic to that is the fact they can run their networks a little hotter, but I also think in terms of the economic caution, they're beginning to see impact of large sections of their enterprise customers, have challenges. And I think that's a consistent issue, not just in North America but in Europe and around the world. So there's some logic as to why we'd see it in international carriers as well.

謝謝你，西蒙。我認為這種現象相當普遍，無論是在國內、北美或國際上，而且它主要涉及服務提供者和MSO（多系統營運商）。所以這種情況在各方面都普遍存在。我認為其中的動態是，他們可以稍微提高網路運作溫度，但同時，從經濟謹慎的角度來看，他們也開始看到很大一部分企業客戶面臨挑戰。我認為這不僅在北美，在歐洲乃至全世界都是一個普遍存在的問題。所以，我們在國際航空公司也看到這種情況是有一定道理的。

Obviously, some carriers are more exposed than others and the sort of -- to various extents. But it is quite widespread amongst the service providers. On webscale, I think it's much less so because I think it's a different set of dynamics there. And I think they're largely performing as we thought. I think the growth rate this year is going to be lower than we'd anticipated. But I think that's to do with some challenges around building out data centers, et cetera. That has slowed, particularly internationally, their ability to do that. And you had -- 1 webscale player, in particular, had a large absorption and is running their network hotter as well. But we saw pretty good growth with all of the other webscale players. So I think it's less webscale and more service provider, Simon, for sure.

顯然，有些業者比其他業者更容易受到影響，而且程度各不相同。但這在服務提供者中相當普遍。我認為在網路規模上，這種情況要少得多，因為那裡的動態情況有所不同。我認為他們的表現基本上符合我們的預期。我認為今年的成長率會低於我們的預期。但我認為這與資料中心建置等方面的挑戰有關。這減緩了他們這樣做的能力，尤其是在國際上。而且，有一家網路規模龐大的公司，特別是某家，用戶吸收量很大，其網路也運作得更繁忙。但我們看到其他所有網路規模玩家都取得了相當不錯的成長。所以我覺得它與其說是網路規模，不如說是服務供應商，西蒙，肯定是這樣。

One other thing I'll mention, Simon, is that we're seeing particular weakness in India. And remember, India started the year with a few secular factors. COVID has hit India, and India has been shutdown basically for several months. So India has been a clear effect on us.

西蒙，我還要提一點，那就是我們看到印度的情況尤其疲軟。而且別忘了，印度年初時也受到一些世俗因素的影響。新冠疫情襲擊了印度，印度基本上已經停擺好幾個月了。所以印度對我們產生了明顯的影響。

And as a follow-up, I wanted to see if you could maybe offer an -- us an update on the prospect for winning business as a result of Huawei backlash, whether it's because operators choose to move away from Huawei or Huawei simply can't build products. This is something we've been hearing more about. The U.S. government has taken further actions. So we'd love to hear your latest on that topic.

作為後續問題，我想請您提供華為遭遇抵制後，贏得業務的前景如何，無論是運營商選擇放棄華為，還是華為根本無法生產產品。我們最近越來越常聽到這種說法。美國政府已採取進一步行動。我們很想聽聽您在這方面的最新進展。

Yes. I think that's generally a positive dynamic for us and a sort of tailwind that I think is going to stretch out over the next 1 to 3 years. I would say that, that dynamic is going to take time. These are big strategic decisions by large carriers. And predominantly in Europe is what we're talking about. We are engaged with those carriers. We have secured some of those design wins, and they will roll out. But I think it is a 1- to 3-year dynamic. And the operational challenges around those kinds of decisions are nontrivial as well. They're very ensconced into those networks, the back office. And it's not just an economic challenge for the carriers. It's a big operational challenge, too. So yes, we think it's a very positive dynamic for us. I think it plays out over a longer period of time than, perhaps, the media might lead one to believe, but it is happening. And we are securing wins as a result of that dynamic. They are in our design wins, but they're not showing up in revenue yet.

是的。我認為這對我們來說總體上是一個積極的動態，是一種順風，我認為這種順風將在未來 1 到 3 年內持續下去。我認為，這種動態變化需要時間。這是大型航空公司做出的重大策略決策。我們主要指的是歐洲的情況。我們正在與這些業者洽談合作。我們已經拿下了一些設計項目，它們將陸續推出。但我認為這是一個1到3年的過程。而圍繞這類決策所面臨的操作性挑戰也不容小覷。他們深深紮根於這些網路和後台部門。這不僅是航空公司面臨的經濟挑戰。這在操作層面也是一個巨大的挑戰。所以，是的，我們認為這對我們來說是一個非常積極的動態。我認為這件事發生的時間可能比媒體報道的要長，但它確實正在發生。而我們正是憑藉著這種動態贏得了比賽。它們確實出現在我們的設計訂單中，但尚未轉化為實際收入。

Your next question is from the line of George Notter with Jefferies.

你的下一個問題來自喬治諾特與傑富瑞的合作系列。

I appreciate it. The funny thing about this is, we just came through an earnings season, of course, companies on the June quarter. And we didn't see this sort of guidance from companies like Infinera, certainly Juniper is a name that I tend to comp with you guys in terms of service provider exposure. Could you just talk about why your experience here seems to be quite a bit different relative to some of those other names?

謝謝。有趣的是，我們剛剛經歷了財報季，當然，指的是各公司在六月發布的季度財報。我們沒有看到像 Infinera 這樣的公司提供此類指導，當然，就服務提供者的曝光度而言，我傾向於將 Juniper 與你們相提並論。您能否談談為什麼您在這裡的經歷與其他一些人的經歷似乎有很大不同？

Yes. I'd say, George, that you will be hearing that -- this from our competitors, peers and even customers, frankly. We have a quarter that's slightly off in terms of most of our peers, competitors and customers. And so since this phenomenon really occurred late in our quarter, and specifically in the last month of the quarter, it might not have been evident to them at the time they did their earnings. We believe this is very broad. And everyone will be talking about this over the next several quarters.

是的。喬治，我想說，你會聽到這樣的說法──坦白講，這些說法會來自我們的競爭對手、同行，甚至是客戶。與大多數同業、競爭對手和客戶相比，我們本季的業績略有下滑。因此，由於這種現象實際上是在本季末，特別是本季最後一個月發生的，所以他們在進行收益評估時可能並沒有意識到這一點。我們認為這個範圍非常廣泛。接下來的幾個季度，大家都會談論這件事。

We have the kind of global visibility that others don't quite have, particularly with global service providers, which is where this is focused. And so I think that's why we're seeing it a bit earlier than others.

我們擁有其他公司所不具備的全球知名度，尤其是全球服務供應商，這也是我們關注的重點。所以我覺得這就是為什麼我們比其他人更早看到這種情況的原因。

So is it fair to say that sort of the meat of the pressure on orders really came in, in the month of August?

那麼，是否可以說訂單壓力真正主要集中在八月呢？

I would say that from an outlook point of view, orders, I mean, Q3 -- we delivered a fabulous Q3, and so it really didn't impact Q3 much. But our outlook towards the end of Q3, I think it began to change.

從前景來看，訂單方面，我的意思是，第三季——我們第三季的業績非常出色，所以它並沒有對第三季造成太大影響。但到了第三季末，我們的前景開始改變。

Yes. Remember, we said that our orders in Q3 were meaningfully lower than our revenue, which is the first time that's happened in a long, long time. So we definitely saw the orders effect in Q3, didn't see a revenue effect in Q3.

是的。請記住，我們說過第三季的訂單量遠低於收入，這是很久以來第一次出現這種情況。所以我們在第三季確實看到了訂單量的影響，但沒有看到收入方面的影響。

Got it. Okay. And would you -- is there a book-to-bill ratio you could share with us?

知道了。好的。請問您能否與我們分享訂單出貨比？

We haven't given that. But I'd say our backlog did come down.

我們還沒有提供。但我認為我們的積壓訂單確實減少了。

Your next question is from the line of John Marchetti with Stifel.

你的下一個問題來自約翰·馬爾凱蒂與史蒂費爾的合作系列。

I'd just like to follow up a little bit on that timing question that George just asked. Gary, is it a situation as your customers are starting to get their own operations back to normal? And as you suggested, they're starting to look at what their business prospects are that you think really drove the sort of sharp deceleration in what you're expecting for the second half of the year?

我想就喬治剛才問的那個時間安排問題再補充一點。Gary，你的客戶是否已經開始逐步恢復正常營運了？正如您所說，他們開始審視自身的業務前景，您認為這是否真正導致了您對下半年業績預期的急劇放緩？

I think it's a combination of these factors, John. I think there's a certain extent with pull-forwards. We had a number of carriers who were in a position to secure continuity of supply, place those orders on. We had a very strong Q2 orders, as we said. So I think you've got that dynamic and a little bit of bleed-off and absorption. And I think you've got these other 2 elements that -- whilst overall, the logistical issues around COVID have eased a little bit. I think that's fair. I think they're looking at it and saying, they're not prioritizing their new business initiatives, sort of new route wins and new adoption of technology generally. They're focused on how do we keep the network going and run it a little bit hotter. And I think they're also bumping into -- frankly, the realities of some of their enterprise customers really suffering significantly in whole sectors such as retail, transportation, hospitality, restaurants, and that's beginning to impact their perspective on outlook. So I think, John, it's all sort of 3 of those elements coming together, if you will.

約翰，我認為這是多種因素共同作用的結果。我認為提前出擊有一定的程度。我們有一些承運商能夠確保供應的連續性，並下了這些訂單。正如我們所說，第二季訂單非常強勁。所以我覺得你既有這種動態效果，又有一些擴散和吸收的現象。我認為還有另外兩個因素——儘管總體而言，與新冠疫情相關的後勤問題有所緩解。我覺得很公平。我認為他們正在審視這個問題，並表示他們不會優先考慮新的業務措施、新的路線拓展以及新技術的普遍應用。他們關注的是如何保持網路正常運行，並使其運行速度更快一些。坦白說，我認為他們也開始意識到，他們的一些企業客戶在零售、運輸、酒店、餐飲等整個行業都遭受了嚴重的損失，這開始影響他們對前景的看法。所以我覺得，約翰，這其實是這三個因素共同作用的結果。

And then maybe as a follow-up there, Gary, how do I think about your expectation for the continued momentum in 800-gig adoption? Obviously, you've gotten off to a stronger-than-expected start or a very strong start with WaveLogic 5 and particularly Extreme. How do we -- do you expect that to slow then as customers keep evaluating this? Or how should we think about that if they're sort of pulling back on some new projects?

那麼，Gary，作為後續問題，我對你對 800G 普及勢頭的預期有何看法？顯然，WaveLogic 5，尤其是 Extreme，取得了比預期更強的開局，或者說非常強勁的開局。我們該如何應對—您認為隨著客戶不斷評估，這種情況會放緩嗎？如果他們正在縮減一些新項目，我們該怎麼看待這個問題？

Scott, do you want to take that?

史考特，你想接嗎？

Definitely, Gary. Thanks, John. It's interesting because as you pointed out, the pace of new design wins is actually is quite pleasing to us. And if I sort of compare it back to the previous generation, we've got over 50 design wins in our back pocket. Now that's probably about twice the rate of design wins from the previous generation in the same time period. But interestingly enough, if I look at the volume shift against those, it's actually probably a little bit smaller than the first piece. And I think that's exactly a microcosm of the broader picture that we're talking about. Obviously, monetizing new technology goes through a couple of phases. But if I simplify it, there's a selection phase, and then there is an operationalization phase. Selection phases is everything from the competitive RFP tenders, the lab-based cost, trials, commercial negotiation, contracts, et cetera. We've gotten through that at a great rate.

當然，加里。謝謝你，約翰。有趣的是，正如你所指出的，新設計方案的中標速度實際上令我們非常滿意。如果將這一代與上一代進行比較，我們已經獲得了 50 多項設計大獎。現在，這大概是上一代產品同期設計得標率的兩倍。但有趣的是，如果我將體積變化與這些進行比較，它實際上可能比第一部分略小。我認為這正是我們所討論的更廣泛圖景的一個縮影。顯然，新技術的商業化需要經歷幾個階段。但簡單來說，就是先有一個選擇階段，然後才是實施階段。甄選階段包括競爭性招標、實驗室成本、試驗、商業談判、合約等各個面向。我們已經以極快的速度完成了這項工作。

And RFP pace hasn't slowed down at all. What has slowed down is the operationalization of this stuff, and you can see it sort of in a slightly lower set of volume units that are shipped against a bigger number of design wins. Those design wins don't go away, by the way. We will monetize those going forward in the future. It's just a little bit slower than we would like.

而且，招標速度絲毫沒有放緩。放緩的是這些產品的營運化進程，你可以從出貨量略低但設計訂單數量卻有所增加這一現像中看出這一點。順便說一句，那些設計上的勝利不會消失。未來我們會將這些商業模式貨幣化。速度比我們預期的稍微慢了一點。

And your next question is from the line of Meta Marshall with Morgan Stanley.

你的下一個問題來自 Meta Marshall 與摩根士丹利的合作系列。

Great. A couple of questions for me. One, one of your competitors is talking about one of the ways the Huawei opportunity could, kind of, come to fruition is a move to open line systems in Europe, in particular. And just wanted to kind of get your thoughts on how you saw the Huawei opportunity kind of coming over the next couple of years. Do you think that, that could be the trigger that would cause them to move to open line systems?

偉大的。我有幾個問題想問一下。第一，你們的一位競爭對手正在談論華為的機會實現的一種方式，尤其是在歐洲，是轉向開放式線路系統。我只是想了解一下您對華為未來幾年發展機會的看法。你認為這會是促使他們轉向開放式線路系統的觸發因素嗎？

And then maybe a second point, you noted earlier in the year that your visibility with webscale customers is pretty high. Just a sense of clearly, there's been a slowdown to international builds, but just how do you view your visibility with webscale customers versus your service provider customers?

還有一點，您在今年早些時候提到，您在網路規模客戶中的知名度相當高。很明顯，國際建設專案成長放緩，但您如何看待您在網路規模客戶和服務供應商客戶中的可見度？

So why don't I take the first one then, Meta. And Scott, feel free to add to this or answer the second piece. I think it's unlikely to move to an open line system in Europe with the Huawei. The Huawei replacement is quite a complicated set of issues around back office, operational elements, et cetera. So I think that's going to take a while to play out. As I said, it's probably a 1- to 3-year opportunity. We're already beginning to deploy on a couple of those that we've won. And architecturally, I don't think that's going to create any kind of shift to open line systems, frankly. I don't really see that. Scott, I don't know if you have any additional color on that?

那我為什麼不選第一個呢，Meta？Scott，歡迎你補充或回答第二個問題。我認為華為不太可能在歐洲推行開放式線路系統。華為設備的替換涉及後台、營運要素等方面的一系列相當複雜的問題。所以我覺得這件事還需要一段時間才能塵埃落定。正如我所說，這可能是為期 1 到 3 年的機會。我們已經開始在幾個已經贏得的專案中進行部署。坦白說，從架構角度來看，我認為這不會促成向開放式線路系統的任何轉變。我倒沒看出這一點。史考特，我不知道你還有沒有其他補充資料？

Yes, I would agree with that totally here. I mean open line systems is an early phenomenon. From a technology perspective or even from a deployment perspective, you look at how we -- how some of the webscalers consume the technology. The issue for the large European or any global carriers is all the operational challenges of a new vendor, whether that's just the transponder systems are a closed-loop system. It doesn't really change that dynamic, and that's the gating factor for actually switching off of Huawei.

是的，我完全同意。我的意思是，開放式線路系統是一種早期現象。從技術角度，甚至從部署角度來看，你要看看我們——一些網路規模化企業是如何使用這項技術的。對於歐洲大型營運商或任何全球營運商來說，問題在於新供應商帶來的所有營運挑戰，無論這僅僅是應答器系統還是閉環系統。它並沒有真正改變這種局面，而這正是真正放棄華為的關鍵因素。

On the second part of your question, Meta, on the webscale piece, we have very good visibility with the webscale folks. Obviously, you've got less customers there and more concentrated set of players. And that's largely played out as we thought. We do have a significant new design win with a new webscale player, which is new to Ciena. We were always missing one of the large web scale players, which we've now added to our design wins, and that'll start to roll out as we go through next year. We have pretty good visibility to their demand dynamics. The only dynamic we're really seeing there is a slight slowdown in the build-out of data centers, which, again, is largely a logistical issue and largely outside of the U.S., to do with their submarine cable, provisioning, et cetera, which is to be expected.

Meta，關於你問題的第二部分，也就是網路規模方面，我們與網路規模方面的人員有非常好的溝通管道。顯然，那裡的顧客較少，玩家群也更加集中。事情的發展基本上符合我們的預期。我們與新的網路規模播放器達成了一項重要的全新設計合作，這對 Ciena 來說是全新的合作。我們一直缺乏一家大型網路公司，現在我們已經將其納入我們的設計合作名單，並將於明年開始逐步推出。我們對他們的需求動態有相當清晰的了解。我們目前唯一看到的動態是資料中心建設略有放緩，這主要是物流問題，而且主要發生在美國以外，與海底電纜、供應等有關，這是意料之中的。

Our next question is from the line of Rod Hall with Goldman Sachs.

我們的下一個問題來自高盛的羅德·霍爾。

I wanted to focus in on the margins a little bit and see if -- I know, Gary, I'm trying to piece together your commentary that the margins are so much better, the gross margins are so much better because of the move towards existing projects. That all makes sense to me. But then the fact that you're talking about the weakness developing late in the quarter, and then you guys are guiding margins down a little bit for next quarter, I'm just curious, are we -- would you then say we're at a new normal gross margin here due to that mix shift? Or does that mix shift continue to play out over the next few quarters as the new business maybe is a little bit weaker? So I'm just kind of curious what the trajectory of gross margins should be here.

我想稍微關註一下利潤率，看看——我知道，加里，我正在努力理解你的評論，你說利潤率之所以這麼好，毛利率之所以這麼好，是因為轉向了現有項目。我完全明白了。但是，既然您提到疲軟的趨勢出現在本季度末，你們也預計下個季度的毛利率會略微下調，我很好奇，那麼——您是否認為由於這種產品組合的變化，我們現在的毛利率已經達到了一個新的正常水平？或者，隨著新業務可能略顯疲軟，這種組合變化是否會在接下來的幾季繼續上演？所以我很好奇這裡的毛利率走勢應該是怎麼樣的。

And then my second question is on OpEx. I just -- I get that you're getting a natural benefit in OpEx from the lack of travel. But could you just talk maybe, Jim, a little bit about, are you going to take any proactive OpEx control measures here? Or do you really not need to take measures because you're getting this natural OpEx impact from the lockdowns and so on?

我的第二個問題是關於營運支出（OpEx）。我只是——我明白，由於無需出差，你們在營運支出方面自然會獲得好處。吉姆，你能不能稍微談談，你們打算採取哪些積極的營運支出控制措施？或者，由於封鎖等措施已經對營運成本產生了自然影響，所以您真的不需要採取措施嗎？

Thanks, Rod. On the gross margin point, we are -- and we expect to be in a range higher than our sort of run rate margin of 43% to 45% as long as our revenue remains at a slower pace. And that's because our revenue is going to be at a slower pace because our mix of revenue consists mostly of existing business, and not a lot of the new wins that we've not yet monetized are the new wins that we're going to get once the coronavirus effects on the business ameliorates. So yes, our gross margin is likely to be above our run rate margin for the next several quarters.

謝謝你，羅德。就毛利率而言，我們目前——而且我們預計，只要我們的收入保持較慢的成長速度，我們的毛利率就會高於我們通常的 43% 到 45% 的毛利率水平。這是因為我們的營收成長速度將會放緩，因為我們的收入組成主要由現有業務組成，而我們尚未實現盈利的新業務，很多都是在新冠疫情對業務的影響緩解後才會出現的。所以，是的，未來幾季我們的毛利率很可能會高於我們的正常毛利率。

We do think that once we get past this, because, again, we said it's a few quarters. We will be back in the business of monetizing new wins and winning new business, and we think that our margin will trend towards that 43% to 45%. That's our view today.

我們認為一旦度過這個難關，因為，正如我們所說，這只是幾季的事。我們將重新專注於將新勝利轉化為利潤，並贏得新業務，我們認為我們的利潤率將趨向於 43% 至 45%。這就是我們今天的觀點。

On Opex, what I would say is that we're actually quite a bit below our OpEx expectation for this year mainly due to travel and some other things that COVID has affected in our ability to get things done. Actually, when we go into next year, we intend to invest in our business significantly. We think that it's the right thing to do strategically. We believe that we can attack a number of new markets and architectures with the things that we're bringing to market in our innovation machine. And so we don't intend to reduce our OpEx by any significant amount. Of course, we're going to be trimming around the edges. Sure. But not in any meaningful way.

關於營運支出，我想說的是，我們今年的實際營運支出遠低於預期，這主要是由於旅行以及新冠疫情對我們完成工作能力造成的其他一些影響。事實上，進入明年，我們計劃對我們的業務進行大量投資。我們認為從策略角度來看，這是正確的做法。我們相信，憑藉我們創新機器推向市場的產品，我們可以進軍許多新的市場和架構。因此，我們不打算大幅削減營運支出。當然，我們還要做一些修整。當然。但沒有任何實質的影響。

The other thing I'd add, Rod, around that is that during the course of the last 2 to 3 years, we have significantly improved our operating efficiencies from an expense point of view, and we've done that during a very deliberate move to optimize our operating expenses, which basically have reduced consistently during the last 2 to 3 years, which has helped produce the bottom line performance that we've got. And I think I just emphasize what Jim said earlier around profitability. And I think it talks to, a, the strength of our overall business model and what we've done; and two, our competitive position that even during this reduced outlook period, we will still be profitable as a business, and we will still generate cash. So I think that says a lot for the strength of both the business model and our competitive position.

羅德，我還要補充一點，在過去的2到3年裡，我們從費用角度顯著提高了營運效率，這是我們有意識地優化營運費用的結果，在過去的2到3年裡，我們的營運費用基本上一直在持續下降，這有助於我們取得目前的盈利業績。我覺得我只是強調吉姆之前提到的關於獲利能力的問題。我認為這體現了兩點：一是我們整體商業模式的優勢以及我們所取得的成就；二是我們的競爭地位，即使在當前前景黯淡的情況下，我們仍然能夠盈利，並且仍然能夠產生現金流。所以我認為這充分說明了我們商業模式的強大以及我們的競爭地位。

Okay. I guess I was just assuming that -- on the gross margins, I was assuming that there ought to be some trajectory -- continued trajectory upward? Or it seems like there might be a mix shift continuing because these things don't always happen overnight. So -- but it sounds like you're saying that the gross margins have kind of peaked here due to that mix shift and now will stay at this level for the foreseeable future. I guess, is that the right way to see it, Jim? Or am I right to think that this didn't happen overnight and there is some sort of trajectory?

好的。我猜我只是假設——就毛利率而言，我假設它應該有一定的成長趨勢——持續上升？或者說，這種成分變化似乎仍在持續，因為這些事情並非總是一夜之間發生的。所以——但聽起來你的意思是，由於產品組合的變化，毛利率已經達到峰值，並且在可預見的未來將保持在這個水平。吉姆，我想，這樣看待這件事是不是正確呢？或者我的理解是否正確，這件事並非一朝一夕發生的，而是有一定的發展軌跡？

I think that what you just said is correct. Our margins are very high, 48%. And we don't expect them to go up from here. We think that they will be in the 46% to 48% range in Q4. Remember, your comment about not happening overnight. Remember, we've enjoyed pretty good gross margins so far this year. And part of that is -- and in fact, the most -- the largest part of it was in Q2 because Q2 was affected by the lack of new wins. So this hasn't happened overnight. It's been a function of moving through this year.

我認為你剛才說的是對的。我們的利潤率非常高，達到 48%。我們預計它們不會再上漲了。我們認為第四季這一比例將在 46% 到 48% 之間。記住，你之前說過這不會一蹴可幾。請記住，我們今年的毛利率一直相當不錯。其中一部分——實際上也是最重要的一部分——發生在第二季度，因為第二季度受到了缺乏新勝利的影響。所以這並非一朝一夕之事。這是今年以來發生的事情。

Our next question is from the line of Paul Silverstein with Cowen and Company.

我們的下一個問題來自保羅·西爾弗斯坦 (Paul Silverstein) 與 Cowen and Company 的合作計畫。

Yes. Some clarifications, if I may. First off, Jim, have you backed away from your previous statements regarding holding OpEx growth to low single digits next year and beyond? I think -- I know you've made that comment previously.

是的。如果可以的話，我想澄清幾點。吉姆，首先，你是否收回了先前關於明年及以後將營運支出成長控制在個位數低水準的言論？我想——我知道你之前也說過類似的話。

No. No, I did not make the comment that we're going to hold our OpEx growth to low -- to below revenue. I've made no comment about that. I will say that our OpEx this year is artificially low as a result of the lack of travel. And so we're going to see an increase in OpEx next year as we return to travel. And we intend to continue investing. But no, it's definitely our intent that we continue to drive operating leverage by growing revenue and OpEx.

不。不，我並沒有說過我們要把營運支出成長控制在很低的水平——低於收入水平。我對此沒有發表任何評論。我要說的是，由於缺乏差旅，我們今年的營運支出被人為地壓低了。因此，隨著旅遊業的復甦，明年我們將看到營運支出增加。我們打算繼續投資。但是，不，我們絕對打算繼續透過增加收入和營運支出來提高營運槓桿。

And Jim, this is the direct question in terms of keeping it to low single digits. Do you already have a plan in place where you have a number in mind? Or you're just thinking that you'll keep it below revenue growth?

吉姆，這才是將失利率控制在個位數以下的關鍵。你是否已經有了計劃，心中已經有了具體的數字？還是你只是打算將其控制在營收成長以下？

Well, I don't have a number in place for '21. But I guess just to clarify, I'm going to state this again for the modelers among you, our OpEx this year is artificially low. And so the comparison between '20 and '21 OpEx is going to be affected by the fact that 2020 OpEx is artificially low. If you go back and compare over longer periods, absolutely, we're committed to that trend.

嗯，我還沒有2021年的具體數字。但我想澄清一下，我再說一遍，給你們這些模型愛好者聽，我們今年的營運支出被人為地壓低了。因此，2020 年和 2021 年營運支出之間的比較會受到 2020 年營運支出人為偏低這一事實的影響。如果回顧更長的時間跨度進行比較，我們絕對會堅持這一趨勢。

And then going back to the ban issue, the softness you all are referencing. I recognize it's fairly new advantage, but is it when it hit, are you -- how has it stabilized? Are you still seeing erosion as you've gone week-by-week over the course of the last month? And have over and above demand issues, have you had any meaningful competitive losses?

然後回到禁令問題，也就是你們都在提到的軟弱之處。我知道這是一個相當新的優勢，但是它是什麼時候出現的呢？ ——它現在穩定下來了嗎？在過去一個月裡，你每週都會觀察情況，那麼侵蝕現像是否仍然存在？除了需求問題之外，你們是否遭受任何重大的競爭損失？

I think, let me take the last one first. I think the answer to that is no, absolutely not. Scott alluded to it, and I want to be clear around this, the -- you've seen operational challenges around the COVID thing and the accumulated issues around that. But the RFP activity has continued, and we are winning more than our fair share on that. If you look at the market growth that we've had in the first half of the year, we think we took over 1 percentage point of global market share in the first half of the year. And then we're just beginning to roll out WaveLogic 5. We've got a number of significant design wins that we've not monetized yet. And we keep adding to those every quarter. So we are winning more than our fair share of it. So we're growing market share, and we're growing importantly, the design wins for the future, some significant design wins against some inherent competitive accounts. So we're in a very strong position from a competitive point of view. Jim, do you want to take the first part of that?

我想，還是讓我先拿最後一個。我認為答案是否定的，絕對不是。史考特也提到了這一點，我想就此明確一點——你們已經看到了新冠疫情帶來的營運挑戰以及由此累積的問題。但是，招標活動仍在繼續，而且我們贏得的份額遠遠超過了我們應得的份額。如果看一下我們上半年的市場成長情況，我們認為我們上半年在全球市佔率中佔據了超過 1 個百分點的份額。而我們才剛開始推出 WaveLogic 5。我們已經贏得了一些重要的設計項目，但尚未實現盈利。而且我們每季都會增加這些項目。所以我們贏得的比我們應得的份額多得多。因此，我們的市場份額正在成長，更重要的是，我們贏得了未來設計項目，在一些與固有競爭對手的較量中取得了一些重要的設計勝利。所以從競爭角度來看，我們處於非常有利的地位。吉姆，你想先做第一部分嗎？

Yes. What I'd say there, Paul, is, as we've said a lot in the past, we do a lot of forecasting, and we do a weekly look at what we're seeing in the quarter. And what I would say is over the past few weeks as we rolled up our view for Q4, it's been in the range of the number that we're talking about.

是的。保羅，我想說的是，正如我們過去多次說過的那樣，我們做了很多預測，並且每週都會查看本季度的情況。我想說的是，在過去幾周里，當我們總結對第四季度的預期時，它一直都在這個我們討論的數字範圍內。

Your next question is from the line of Tal Liani with Bank of America.

你的下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Tal Liani 的線路。

Two questions. First is, I'm trying to understand the kind of weakness you're seeing. How do you describe it? Is it projects that ended and you just don't see follow-on orders or new projects? Or are there any projects that are in the middle and basically corporate -- carriers or customers are putting a hold on them and say, you know what, don't continue with the original plan. I'm trying to understand how severe and what's leading to this break?

兩個問題。首先，我想了解你所看到的弱點是什麼。你如何描述它？是指那些已經結束的項目，之後就沒有後續訂單或新項目了嗎？或者，有沒有一些項目處於中間階段，基本上是企業方面——運營商或客戶暫停了這些項目，並表示，你知道嗎，不要繼續執行原計劃了。我想了解這次破裂的嚴重程度以及導致破裂的原因？

I think what's leading to it, as I said, is these dynamics mainly, Tal, focused on new business initiatives. So where service providers have to either put stuff through their lab and go through all of that kind of process and integrate into their back office or do large deployments where they need to get out to multiple sites, et cetera, we've seen a slowdown in those new business initiatives. We have not seen, to your point, which you would see in other -- certainly, I've seen in other economic recessions, where things get canceled and projects get completely put on ice. We haven't seen any of that. It's more about just the velocity of new business initiatives in general slowing down. And then I think what we've seen more recently, and that's something we've pointed out in Q2 that we were seeing and the cumulative effect of that is certainly accelerated. So it's more about new business. Nothing because really -- and folks aren't saying, hey, we're not going to continue with this project. Absolutely none of that. And as I said, we've seen plenty of RFP activity and planning has continued at pace.

我認為，正如我所說，導致這種情況發生的主要原因是這些動態，塔爾，主要集中在新的商業舉措上。因此，服務提供者要么需要將產品送入實驗室進行測試，完成所有相關流程並整合到後台系統，要么需要進行大規模部署，將產品部署到多個站點等等，我們看到這些新業務計劃的推進速度有所放緩。正如您所說，我們還沒有看到像在其他經濟衰退時期那樣的情況——當然，我在其他經濟衰退時期確實看到過這種情況——很多事情被取消，很多項目被完全擱置。我們什麼都沒看到。更確切地說，是新業務措施的整體速度放緩了。然後我認為我們最近看到的，也是我們在第二季度指出的，我們看到的情況，其累積效應肯定會加速。所以，重點在於拓展新業務。沒什麼，因為真的——而且大家並沒有說，嘿，我們不會繼續這個計畫了。完全沒有這些。正如我所說，我們已經看到了大量的招標活動，規劃工作也正在快速前進。

I think what we've seen in the last couple of months or so is just increased scrutiny about budget spend, Tal. And really, I think that's related to just caution on behalf of the service providers as they are being hit by issues with the certain segments of their enterprise customers. So that's very much what we're saying. And they're running the networks hotter. The secular demand and the RFP activity, and their general planning has continued to play through, which is why we think this is a relatively short-term issue.

塔爾，我認為在過去幾個月裡，我們看到的只是對預算支出的審查力度加大。我認為這實際上與服務提供者的謹慎態度有關，因為他們的部分企業客戶群正面臨一些問題。這就是我們想表達的意思。而且他們的網路運作溫度也更高了。長期需求和招標活動及其總體規劃仍在持續發揮作用，因此我們認為這是一個相對短期的問題。

I'd also come back to India, Tal, because we've had several wins in India this year. But India has been shutdown. And the spend in India is very, very low. We've gained share. Huawei is being pushed out of India. But we're not seeing the activity to rule those projects out. So that's a significant piece of what's going on here.

塔爾，我也想回到印度，因為我們今年在印度取得了幾場勝利。但印度已經封鎖了。在印度的消費水準非常非常低。我們獲得了市場佔有率。華為正被排擠出印度市場。但我們目前還沒有看到任何跡象表明這些項目不可能存在。所以，這是目前情況的一個重要面向。

Got it. My second question is about gross margin. So I heard what you said about gross margin that it's going to be 46% to 48%. And I want to take you back a little bit into the history of the company. In prior down cycles, gross margin fluctuated in a great way. I'm talking about 45 to 37 kind of percent. This time, you're talking about a slowdown, but not much impact on gross margin, why? Why don't we see -- with lower volumes and maybe less project starts, why don't we see greater impact on gross margin?

知道了。我的第二個問題是關於毛利率的。我聽到了你說的毛利率將在 46% 到 48% 之間的消息。我想帶大家回顧一下公司的歷史。在過去的經濟下行週期中，毛利率波動幅度很大。我指的是 45% 到 37% 左右的比例。這次你們說的是經濟成長放緩，但對毛利率影響不大，為什麼？為什麼銷量下降、專案啟動減少，卻沒有對毛利率產生更大的影響？

Well, first of all, we're a lot bigger than we were during that time period, and we have a much broader set of customers. But secondly, this is an interesting situation, Tal. And the effect of this pandemic is to slow down the rollout of new projects, which typically carry lower gross margins. We always have this chassis versus line cart effect. And we always -- very often, have the fact that to win new projects, we have to make concessions to customers. And we're not seeing those kinds of early-in-life projects roll through our revenue right now. So it's just interesting. We're seeing an improved gross margin in this period of lower revenue. Now -- and I think this persists for a while because we have expectations of a bit lower revenue.

首先，我們現在的規模比那時大得多，而且我們的客戶群也更加廣泛。但其次，這是一個有趣的情況，塔爾。而這次疫情的影響是減緩了新項目的推出速度，這些項目的毛利率通常較低。我們總是會遇到底盤車與生產線車之間的這種差異。而且我們總是——而且經常——面臨這樣的事實：為了贏得新項目，我們不得不向客戶讓步。目前我們還沒有看到這類早期項目為我們帶來收入。所以這很有趣。儘管營收有所下降，但我們卻看到了毛利率的提高。現在——而且我認為這種情況還會持續一段時間，因為我們預計收入會略有下降。

However, once we get back to normal, and we're winning, we think our gross margin is going to come in a little bit. And as we've said, our run rate margin is 43% to 45%. We believe once we get back to this fully incorporating new wins and new business.

但是，一旦我們恢復正常，並且開始獲利，我們認為我們的毛利率會略有提高。正如我們所說，我們的運行率優勢為 43% 至 45%。我們相信，一旦我們完全恢復正常運營，就能取得新的成功並拓展新的業務。

Your next question is from the line of Amit Daryanani with Evercore.

你的下一個問題來自 Evercore 的 Amit Daryanani。

I guess I have 2 as well. First off, when I think about the softness you guys have been talking about on the service provider side, can you perhaps just maybe reflect and tell us when you've seen this happen historically, how long do these soft patches typically last for you? And I guess when I think about service providers wanting to run their networks harder without adding more bandwidth, I don't imagine they have a lot of flexible capacity lying around. So when you talk to these service providers, are they essentially holding off these projects for a quarter or 2? Or do you think they will defer for much longer than that?

我猜我也有兩個。首先，說到你們一直在討論的服務提供者方面的「軟化」問題，你們能否回顧一下，並告訴我們，在你們的過往經歷中，這種「軟化」狀態通常會持續多久？我想，當想到服務供應商想要在不增加頻寬的情況下提高網路運作效率時，我認為他們並沒有太多多餘的靈活容量。那麼，當你和這些服務提供者交談時，他們是否基本上會將這些項目擱置一個季度或兩個季度？還是你認為他們會延後更久？

Amit, having lived through a number of these downturns personally into it, I think a couple of things I would say. Generally, the carriers can run their networks hotter for longer than we all would expect. I would say that. But I would also say that each of these downturns have their own particular dynamics. And this one, obviously, is driven by the sort of pandemic, and where you've also got this rather unusual dynamic where capacity increases have happened as we're all working online. So it's a bit sort of counterintuitive in many ways or paradox to it.

阿米特，我個人經歷過很多次這樣的經濟低迷時期，我想說幾點。一般來說，營運商的網路能夠在比我們預期更長的時間內保持更高的運作溫度。我會這麼說。但我還要指出，每一次經濟衰退都有其自身獨特的動態。顯然，這次疫情是由疫情推動的，而且由於我們都在網上工作，產能也隨之增加，這在當時是一個相當不尋常的動態。所以這在很多方面都有些違反直覺，或者說自相矛盾。

So I think you look at all of those things, you look at the planning activity, as I talked about, and that's why we're inclined to a view that depending on what happens with the global economy, all things being equal, and we see an amelioration of the impacts of COVID, it's probably a few quarters given those dynamics. So that's the sort of perspective around it.

所以我認為，你要綜合考慮所有這些因素，就像我剛才提到的規劃活動一樣，這就是為什麼我們傾向於認為，根據全球經濟的發展情況，在所有條件相同的情況下，如果新冠疫情的影響有所緩解，考慮到這些動態因素，可能需要幾個季度才能實現。這就是人們對此事的看法。

Perfect. That's helpful. And then if I could follow up quickly. You had extremely impressive free cash flow generation this quarter, sounds like it should be sustainable, didn't seem like a one-off thing. How does your capital allocation process change given the strong free cash flow generation given where you're seeing the end markets right now?

完美的。那很有幫助。然後如果我能盡快跟進的話。你們本季的自由現金流表現非常出色，聽起來像是可持續的，並非曇花一現。鑑於您目前對終端市場狀況的觀察，以及強勁的自由現金流產生情況，您的資本配置流程會發生怎樣的變化？

Yes. So I'd say that we've had strong cash flow really for a couple of years, 3 years now, going back to 2016 or something like that. So that has continued, and I believe that it will continue. Now with respect to capital allocation, essentially, our first and most important capital allocation is to fund our business and invest in our business in a way that will drive continued leadership and, in fact, expanded leadership that means spending on R&D for the projects that we need to, spending to put enough people in the field that we can address customer needs, and finally, in the support function so that we can make all that happen. So that's our top priority. Other than that, in terms of capital, we do spend a little bit on servers and lab equipment and that sort of thing.

是的。所以我覺得，從2016年左右開始，我們已經有兩年到三年的強勁現金流了。這種情況一直持續至今，我相信還會繼續下去。現在，就資本配置而言，我們首要且最重要的資本配置是為我們的業務提供資金並進行投資，以推動我們保持並擴大領先地位。這意味著要投入資金用於我們需要的專案的研發，投入資金在現場配備足夠的人員以滿足客戶需求，最後，投入資金用於支援職能，以便我們能夠實現所有這些目標。所以這是我們的首要任務。除此之外，在資金方面，我們確實會在伺服器、實驗室設備等等方面投入一些資金。

But even during this period of time of lower revenue, we're likely to generate excess cash. That's our expectation. And we have had a share repurchase program in place. We did suspend it in the middle of Q2, just out of an abundance of caution. If things continue, I would expect we would do something like that going forward. Now by the way, we're also interested in doing acquisitions, but we haven't done anything big in a while.

但即使在收入較低的這段時期，我們也有可能產生多餘的現金。這是我們的預期。我們已經實施了股票回購計畫。出於謹慎考慮，我們在第二季中期暫停了該專案。如果情況持續下去，我預期我們今後也會採取類似的措施。順便一提，我們也對收購感興趣，但我們已經有一段時間沒有進行任何大規模收購了。

Your next question is from the line of Michael Genovese with MKM Partners.

你的下一個問題來自 MKM Partners 的 Michael Genovese。

First, just a clarification. Can you give us any color on how big WaveLogic 5 and Waveserver were in the quarter?

首先，需要澄清一點。您能否簡單介紹一下 WaveLogic 5 和 Waveserver 在本季的銷售規模？

Yes. Scott has some good statistics on that, and I'll fill in when he talks.

是的。斯科特在這方面有一些很好的統計數據，等他講到的時候我會補充進去。

Scott, do you want to take that?

史考特，你想接嗎？

Yes. On the WaveLogic 5 piece, Mike, we said we shipped over 1,000 units in the quarter. When we extend beyond the quarter to today and from the beginning of the general availability is probably pushing more towards the 2,000 mark today. On a port shipment perspective, those are split roughly equally between the 6500 family and the Waveserver family.

是的。Mike，關於 WaveLogic 5，我們說過本季我們出貨量超過 1000 台。如果我們把時間範圍從本季延長到今天，從全面上市之初算起，今天的銷售量可能會更接近 2000 台。從港口出貨量來看，6500 系列和 Waveserver 系列的出貨量大致相當。

Did that answer your question, Mike?

麥克，這樣回答你的問題了嗎？

Yes, that's great. So my main question is really, I want to add the competition question on a more detailed basis. You had such a strong experience in 400G leadership. But now some of the suppliers in the industry are talking about other vendors, finally years late coming to market with 400G. And then also, given your 400G experience and how long you did it, it does seem like 1 competitor has a pretty compelling 800G offering in trials right now. Can you just talk about the competitive environment going forward? And how vigilant you are? And I understand up until now, it's been great. But looking forward, could it change? And what are your thoughts on that?

是的，那太好了。所以我的主要問題是，我想更詳細地補充一下關於比賽的問題。您在 400G 領導方面擁有非常豐富的經驗。但現在業內一些供應商正在談論其他供應商，這些供應商終於在多年後推出了 400G 產品。此外，考慮到您在 400G 方面的經驗以及您使用的時間，目前看來，確實有一家競爭對手正在試用一款相當有吸引力的 800G 產品。能談談未來的競爭環境嗎？你的警覺性如何？據我了解，到目前為止一切都很好。但展望未來，情況會改變嗎？你對此有何看法？

Well, I'd say...

嗯，我覺得…

Scott, you want to take that?

史考特，你想拿那個嗎？

Yes, I'd say that Mike -- We -- as I said earlier, we have actually had a greater rate of design wins at the WaveLogic 5 cycle than we did at the WaveLogic AI cycle. And I think that speaks to the competitive strength of the offer. Optical performance is 1 thing, and we're very comfortable with the Optical performance, but it's also the system capabilities that go along with that, everything from the client mix that we support, the marketing structure we support, the protection schemes or the control plane schemes, the back office APIs, et cetera, et cetera, the number of product variants, all of those dimensions, we feel very comfortable that we have a leadership position. All of them are important in terms of customer selection criteria.

是的，我想說的是，麥克——正如我之前所說，我們在 WaveLogic 5 週期中獲得的設計中標率實際上比我們在 WaveLogic AI 週期中獲得的中標率更高。我認為這體現了該方案的競爭力。光性能是一方面，我們對光性能非常滿意，但與之相關的系統能力也同樣重要，包括我們支援的客戶組合、我們支援的市場結構、保護方案或控制平面方案、後台 API 等等，以及產品變體的數量，所有這些方面，我們都很有信心，我們處於領先地位。這些因素對於客戶選擇標準都很重要。

Michael, I would add that the best way of measuring that is obviously customer reaction. And if you look at the design wins that we've had going forward, they're pretty significant. And that takes away a lot of them from competitive incumbency. So we're winning new business against the incumbent suppliers. That's the best way of measuring that. And those design wins will translate into money as we go forward.

邁克爾，我想補充一點，衡量這一點的最佳方法顯然是顧客的反應。如果你看看我們未來的設計成果，你會發現它們都很重要。這使得它們中的許多人失去了競爭優勢。所以我們正在從現有供應商手中贏得新業務。這是衡量這一點的最佳方法。隨著我們不斷推進，這些設計上的成功案例將會轉化為實際的經濟利益。

And just to emphasize, by the way, there is no other 800 gig in market right now, and we don't know when there will be a competitive 800 gig in market.

另外要強調的是，目前市面上還沒有其他 800G 的產品，我們也不知道什麼時候才會出現有競爭力的 800G 產品。

Your next question is from the line of Alex Henderson with Needham.

你的下一個問題來自 Alex Henderson 與 Needham 的對話。

I was hoping you could talk a little bit about the split between the degree to which this is a pure macro event associated with weakness in outlook at the service providers versus the ability to do new installs, the ability to do new systems deployments. Clearly, you've had a lot of design wins, but those design wins are stuck in the pipeline as a result of inability to do deployment. Conversely, one could argue that the service provider weakness is somewhat independent of that ability to do installations. So can you split between those 2? And I think the primary question everybody is dancing around here in terms of the question, and I know you don't give guidance beyond 1 quarter, but should we expect that you're hitting the low mark in the October quarter? Or is there a risk that the January quarter, which is normally seasonally weaker quarter, would actually be down as well?

我希望您能談談，這究竟是純粹的宏觀事件，與服務提供者前景的疲軟有關，還是與進行新安裝、新系統部署的能力有關。顯然，你們已經取得了許多設計上的成功，但由於無法部署，這些設計成果都停滯在了流程中。反之，有人可能會認為服務提供者的弱點與安裝能力在某種程度上是無關的。所以能把錢分給這兩個人嗎？我認為大家在這裡都在迴避一個主要問題，我知道你們不會給出超過一個季度的業績指引，但我們是否應該預期你們會在十月份的季度達到業績低谷？或者，通常季節性較弱的一月份季度，是否也可能出現下滑？

Alex, let me take the first part of that. And I want to be clear around this whole new business piece. First of all, to answer your question, it's very difficult to discern. This stuff is happening in real time. And it's really difficult to discern the precise delineation between how much of it is COVID, logistics, et cetera, and how much is economic caution. I would say this, in the velocity of new business, yes, when we started out in this, it was largely logistics, getting people to sites and just the speed of all of that stuff. That's still there. I would say that's eased a little bit. The second element to it, though, is the prioritization within these carriers of these new business things. That also, I think they're deprioritizing that to focus on running their networks hotter. And various operational challenges that they've got. So there's 2 nuanced but important elements going on there. So it's not all just about sheer logistics. It's about their prioritization of those new business initiatives as well.

Alex，讓我來回答第一部分。我想就這個全新的業務部分做個明確的說明。首先，回答你的問題，這很難分辨。這些事情正在即時發生。而且，很難準確區分其中有多少是新冠疫情、物流等因素造成的，又有多少是出於經濟謹慎的考量。我想說的是，就新業務的速度而言，是的，當我們剛開始做這件事的時候，主要靠的是物流，把人送到現場，以及所有這些事情的速度。那個東西還在那裡。我覺得情況有所緩解。但第二個要素是這些新業務的承運商對這些新業務的優先順序。而且，我認為他們正在降低這方面的優先級，以便專注於提高網路運作效率。以及他們面臨的各種營運挑戰。所以這裡有兩個微妙但重要的因素。所以，這不只是物流的問題。這也關係到他們對這些新業務計劃的優先順序。

And the second piece is, which is, I would say, more current or more of a recent phenomenon is just the hesitancy to release budget. And I think that's really largely by -- in talking with the executives of the service providers, they're beginning to feel the impact of exposure to certain enterprise elements, particularly things like hospitality, retail, transport, all the things that we know have been dramatically impacted. That's beginning to show up to the service providers around the world. And that's, I think, encouraging caution on their part.

第二點，我認為是更近期的現象，或者說是最近才出現的現象，就是不願公佈預算。我認為這主要是因為——在與服務提供者的高階主管交談後，他們開始感受到某些企業要素受到的影響，特別是像飯店、零售、運輸等我們都知道已經受到巨大影響的行業。這一點正開始在全球各地的服務提供者中顯現出來。我認為，這會促使他們保持謹慎。

So I can't give you a 50% answer, Alex. But it's a blend of those.

所以，我無法給你一個50%的答案，Alex。但它是這些因素的混合體。

And with respect to your -- the second part of the question, Alex, I know we're not making it any easier on the folks out there who have to do numbers and consensus and all that sort of thing. But we're not in a position right now to talk about 2021. We are at as low a visibility point as we've been in some time. We're just now working up our 2021 plan, and we'll give you as much information as we can, frankly, when it's appropriate. But for now, we really can't talk about 2021.

至於你問題的第二部分，Alex，我知道我們這樣做並沒有讓那些必須處理數據、達成共識等等這類事情的人輕鬆多少。但我們現在還不方便談論 2021 年的事。我們目前的能見度處於一段時間以來的最低點。我們正在製定 2021 年計劃，坦白說，我們會在適當的時候盡可能多地向您提供資訊。但就目前而言，我們真的無法談論 2021 年。

Well, if I could just follow-up, one last point on that same question. Could you just talk about what the book-to-bill might be below 1 again in the October quarter? Because you might have some visibility to that.

好吧，如果可以的話，我想就這個問題再補充最後一點。您能否談談10月份季度訂單出貨比再次低於1的可能性？因為你或許能了解到一些情況。

Well, it will be -- because our revenue is lower, we're definitely going to have a much better book-to-bill in Q4 than we had in Q3. I'll say that.

確實如此——因為我們的收入較低，所以第四季的訂單出貨比肯定會比第三季好得多。我會這麼說。

Your next question is from the line of Samik Chatterjee with JPMorgan.

你的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Samik Chatterjee。

I guess if I can just start with how should I be thinking about the impact of the order slowdown year-on-year roughly to meet the longer-term revenue model that you have, 6% to 8%, fiscal '21, primarily because it sounds like you will be falling short of that. I'm a bit surprised, if you like take 2 years, both fiscal '20 and '21, you'll be below that long-term model, particularly, when we've had COVID, which has accelerated bandwidth needs. So maybe any color on that, how you're thinking about fiscal '21? And what are we missing here?

我想先問一下，為了達到你們2021財年6%到8%的長期收入目標，我該如何考慮訂單逐年放緩的影響？主要是因為聽起來你們可能無法達到這個目標。我有點驚訝，如果你把2020財年和2021財年都算進去，你會發現實際結果會低於長期模型，尤其是在新冠疫情加速了頻寬需求的情況下。所以，關於這一點，您有什麼看法？您對2021財年有什麼想法？我們究竟遺漏了什麼？

Samik, I think, obviously, we're not talking about longer-term stuff here right now, given what we're seeing. But just a reminder, 2019, we grew over 15%, if you're talking about revenues. This year, I think, has been sort of unprecedented in terms of the COVID piece. And I think, as you say, there's a paradox here. And the bandwidth demands have gone up, and that's why we think this will be a more short term phenomenon. But obviously, we're not in a position to talk about future forecasts at this stage. As I'm sure you'd appreciate. We're only just finishing our Q3 anyway. We're one of the few companies that has continued to provide guidance both for full year, and we have 3-year targets out there as well. And obviously, at some point, we'll -- as we get to probably towards the end of the year, we will look to advise on those.

薩米克，我認為，很顯然，鑑於我們目前所看到的情況，我們現在討論的並不是長期的事情。但還是提醒一下，2019 年，如果指的是收入的話，我們的成長超過 15%。我認為，就新冠疫情而言，今年是前所未有的。我認為，正如你所說，這裡存在著一個悖論。頻寬需求上升了，所以我們認為這只是一個短期現象。但很顯然，我們目前還不具備談論未來預測的條件。我相信您會理解的。反正我們才剛結束第三季。我們是少數幾家持續提供全年業績指引的公司之一，而且我們也設定了三年目標。顯然，在某個時候——大概到今年年底的時候——我們會就這些問題提供建議。

But one thing we are confident about is given our fundamental strengths, our market position, our technology and our people that we're going to continue to gain market share as we go through the next couple of years or several years because we think that we have the strategy, and we have the package to do that, and we intend to.

但有一點我們很有信心，那就是憑藉我們的基本優勢、市場地位、技術和人才，我們將繼續在未來幾年內獲得市場份額，因為我們認為我們有相應的戰略和資源來實現這一目標，而且我們也打算這樣做。

Thank you, Samik. That will be the last question of the day. We look forward to speaking with everyone during the course of the day and the next several. We hope you enjoy the holiday season coming up. And thanks for joining us today.

謝謝你，薩米克。這將是今天最後一個問題。我們期待在今天以及接下來的幾天與大家交流。祝您假期愉快。感謝您今天收看我們的節目。

Thank you. Thank you, again, everyone, for joining today's conference call. This concludes the conference. You may now disconnect.

謝謝。再次感謝各位參加今天的電話會議。會議到此結束。您現在可以斷開連線了。