Ciena Corp (CIEN) 2020 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by, and welcome to the Ciena Q4 2020 Earnings Event. (Operator Instructions) I would now like to hand the conference over to your speaker today, Gregg Lampf, Vice President, Investor Relations. Thank you. Please go ahead, sir.

女士們、先生們，感謝各位的耐心等待，歡迎參加Ciena 2020年第四季財報發布會。 （操作說明）現在，我將把會議交給今天的演講嘉賓，投資者關係副總裁格雷格·蘭普夫先生。謝謝。請您開始演講，先生。

Thank you. Good morning, and welcome to Ciena's 2020 fiscal fourth quarter and year-end review. On the call today is Gary Smith, President and CEO; and Jim Moylan, CFO. Scott McFeely, our Senior Vice President of Global Products and Services, is also with us for Q&A.

謝謝。早安，歡迎參加Ciena 2020財年第四季及全年回顧電話會議。今天出席會議的有總裁兼執行長Gary Smith和財務長Jim Moylan。全球產品與服務資深副總裁Scott McFeely也將參與問答環節。

In addition to this call and the press release, we have posted to the Investors section of our website an accompanying investor presentation that reflects this discussion as well as certain highlighted items from the quarter and fiscal year. Our comments today speak to our recent performance, our view on current market dynamics and drivers of our business as well as a discussion of our financial outlook.

除了本次電話會議和新聞稿之外，我們還在網站的投資者關係頁面發布了一份配套的投資者演示文稿，其中反映了本次討論的內容以及本季度和本財年的一些重點事項。我們今天的演講將著重介紹我們近期的業績表現、我們對當前市場動態和業務驅動因素的看法，以及我們對財務前景的展望。

Today's discussion includes certain adjusted or non-GAAP measures of Ciena's results of operations. A detailed reconciliation of these non-GAAP measures to our GAAP results is included in today's press release.

今天的討論涉及Ciena公司經營績效的某些調整後指標或非GAAP指標。這些非GAAP指標與GAAP績效的詳細調節表已包含在今天的新聞稿中。

Before turning the call over to Gary, I'll remind you that during this call, we'll be making certain forward-looking statements. Such statements, including our quarterly and annual guidance and commentary about our long-term financial targets, are based on current expectations, forecasts and assumptions regarding the company and its markets, which include risks and uncertainties, that could cause actual results to differ materially from the statements discussed today. These statements should be viewed in the context of the risk factors detailed in our most recent 10-Q filing and in our upcoming 10-K filing. Our 10-K is required to be filed with the SEC by December 30, and we expect to file by that date.

在將電話轉交給 Gary 之前，我想提醒各位，本次電話會議中我們將做出一些前瞻性陳述。這些陳述，包括我們的季度和年度業績指引以及對長期財務目標的評論，均基於我們對公司及其市場的當前預期、預測和假設，其中包含風險和不確定性，可能導致實際結果與今天討論的陳述存在重大差異。這些陳述應結合我們最新提交的 10-Q 表格和即將提交的 10-K 表格中詳述的風險因素進行解讀。我們的 10-K 表格必須在 12 月 30 日前提交給美國證券交易委員會 (SEC)，我們預計將按時提交。

Ciena assumes no obligation to update the information discussed in this conference call, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise. As always, we will allow for as much Q&A as possible today. (Operator Instructions)

Ciena不承擔因新資訊、未來事件或其他原因而更新本次電話會議中所討論資訊的義務。像往常一樣，我們今天將盡可能地安排問答環節。 （操作說明）

With that, I'll turn the call over to Gary.

接下來，我將把電話交給加里。

Thanks, Gregg, and good morning, everyone. Our fourth quarter and fiscal year 2020 results really illustrate the extent of our market leadership and resiliency amongst the challenging market conditions we detailed last quarter, which are largely unchanged. And that is namely the combination of a slowing of business velocity and increased risk aversion amongst many global service providers is adversely impacting the short-term deployments of new architectures and network builds.

謝謝格雷格，大家早安。我們2020財年第四季和全年的業績充分展現了我們在充滿挑戰的市場環境下的市場領導地位和韌性，而這些挑戰在上個季度我們詳細闡述的市場環境下依然嚴峻，並且基本沒有改變。具體而言，許多全球服務供應商業務成長放緩和風險規避情緒上升，對新架構和網路建設的短期部署產生了不利影響。

Despite this dynamic, today's results reflect the strength and durability of our business model, including continued strong profitability with adjusted operating margin of 15.8% in Q4 and 17.6% for the full fiscal year, which exceeded our forecast. We also delivered strong free cash flow, with our cash balance up $130 million from last quarter to approximately $1.3 billion. Simply put, we remain in the best financial position in the industry, and we are extremely confident about our leadership position in the market.

儘管存在上述動態，但今天的業績反映了我們商業模式的穩健性和可持續性，包括持續強勁的盈利能力，第四季度調整後營業利潤率為15.8%，全年為17.6%，均超出預期。此外，我們的自由現金流也十分強勁，現金餘額較上季增加1.3億美元，達到約13億美元。簡而言之，我們依然保持著業界最佳的財務狀況，並且對自身的市場領導地位充滿信心。

We could not deliver this performance without the entire Ciena team, which continues to persevere and perform at the highest levels. The Ciena family remains focused and dedicated even when facing new challenges associated with remote working and other COVID-19-related conditions. I'm pleased that many have taken advantage of a wide range of new well-being programs, benefits and resources to support them and their families at this time. I'm also extremely proud of the way they are giving back to our communities throughout the globe through their services and donations as part of our Ciena Cares philanthropy program.

如果沒有整個Ciena團隊的共同努力，我們不可能取得如此佳績。他們始終堅持不懈，保持著最高水準。即使面對遠距辦公和其他與新冠疫情相關的挑戰，Ciena大家庭依然專注且盡職盡責。我很高興看到許多員工充分利用了公司提供的各種福利和資源，以支持他們及其家人度過這段特殊時期。同時，我也為他們透過Ciena關懷慈善項目，為全球各地社區提供的服務和捐贈感到無比自豪。

As you've probably read, we're also collaborating with customers and partners through our digital inclusion commitment on innovative programs that help address the digital divide and promote broader opportunities, particularly for underserved students.

正如您可能已經了解到的，我們還透過我們的數位包容承諾，與客戶和合作夥伴合作開展創新項目，以幫助解決數位落差並促進更廣泛的機會，特別是為服務不足的學生。

Turning to highlights from the fourth quarter and fiscal year. In our core business, we continued to see tremendous momentum for WaveLogic 5 Extreme. Through the end of Q4, we had orders from 65 customers around the world. And supported by our extraordinary supply chain, we're approaching 5,000 units shipped since general availability.

接下來回顧第四季和本財年的亮點。在我們的核心業務方面，WaveLogic 5 Extreme 繼續保持強勁的成長動能。截至第四季末，我們已收到來自全球 65 家客戶的訂單。在卓越的供應鏈支持下，自產品正式上市以來，我們的出貨量已接近 5,000 台。

Looking ahead, our WaveLogic 5 Nano program remains on track. So not only will we be ready to intercept the opportunity for pluggables when market adoption begins sometime in the second half of 2021, we will benefit from the advantage of integrating WaveLogic 5 Nano into our systems as well.

展望未來，我們的WaveLogic 5 Nano專案仍在按計劃進行。因此，我們不僅能夠抓住2021年下半年可插拔設備市場開始普及帶來的機遇，還能受惠於將WaveLogic 5 Nano整合到我們系統中所帶來的優勢。

Our Packet Networking business had a solid year from an innovation perspective, however, revenue in this segment was impacted unluckily by pandemic-related customer concerns around enterprise business, particularly SMB and some carrier managed services. But as demand increases for services, applications and content at the network edge, the opportunities for this portfolio remain very strong, including advancements in IP optical convergence, virtualization, 5G and edge cloud. In fact, during the full fiscal year, we secured a number of awards for this portfolio, including 7 deployments of our new Adaptive IP solution, and we expect to monetize these wins as we move through fiscal 2021.

從創新角度來看，我們的分組網路業務在過去一年表現穩健，但遺憾的是，受疫情影響，企業客戶（尤其是中小企業和部分營運商管理服務）的擔憂加劇，該業務板塊的收入受到影響。然而，隨著網路邊緣對服務、應用和內容的需求不斷增長，該產品組合的機會依然十分強勁，包括IP光融合、虛擬化、5G和邊緣雲等領域的進步。事實上，在整個財年中，我們以該產品組合獲得多項大獎，其中包含7個全新自適應IP解決方案的部署案例。我們預計在2021財年實現這些項目的獲利。

Within our Global Services segment, our network transformation offering is becoming increasingly strategic to our customer engagements and we were very recently selected by 2 Tier 1 service providers for legacy to next-generation network migration projects.

在我們的全球服務部門中，我們的網路轉型服務對我們的客戶合作越來越具有戰略意義，我們最近也被兩家一級服務供應商選中，負責從傳統網路遷移到下一代網路的專案。

We also had a strong year within our Platform Software and Services business, which benefited from increased adoption of MCP, which is our new domain control software platform, and including customers transitioning from our legacy NMS software as well as an uptake of advanced applications that are deployed on top of our MCP platform. The number of customers adopting MCP grew by more than 300% in 2020, including large carriers such as AT&T, Deutsche Telekom and other Tier 1 operators.

我們的平台軟體和服務業務也取得了強勁的業績，這得益於我們全新的域控制軟體平台MCP的廣泛應用，包括客戶從我們原有的網路管理系統（NMS）軟體過渡到MCP平台，以及部署在MCP平台上的高級應用程式的普及。 2020年，採用MCP的客戶數量成長超過300%，其中包括AT&T、德國電信等大型業者以及其他一級業者。

With respect to our Blue Planet software, which is primarily focused on service layer management, enablement and delivery, we are seeing increased engagement with network operators, who are looking for ways to drive digital transformation through automation. And in fact, Q4 was our best-ever quarter for this business, including record bookings. We also acquired 11 new logos for Blue Planet in Q4 alone, including our recently announced strategic partnership with DISH as well as a major win with a global systems integrator.

關於我們的Blue Planet軟體，該軟體主要專注於服務層管理、賦能和交付，我們看到與網路營運商的合作日益密切，他們正在尋求透過自動化推動數位轉型。事實上，第四季是我們該業務有史以來業績最好的一個季度，訂單量也創下新高。光是在第四季度，我們就為Blue Planet新增了11個客戶，包括我們最近宣布與DISH建立策略合作夥伴關係，以及與一家全球系統整合商達成的重大合作。

As for the overall market, demand for connectivity continues, and the adoption of cloud architectures has accelerated, and network traffic continues to grow. And while the pandemic has driven a shift in traffic patterns largely towards the edge and access points and corresponding customer spend and resources, customer engagement and RFP activity for our core business and Blue Planet continues to be robust. In fact, we are winning more than our fair share of new business, including several significant new strategic design wins during this time.

就整體市場而言，對連線的需求依然強勁，雲端架構的採用速度加快，網路流量持續成長。儘管疫情導致流量模式向邊緣和接入點轉移，客戶支出和資源也相應減少，但我們核心業務和Blue Planet的客戶互動和招標活動仍然保持強勁勢頭。事實上，我們贏得了遠超預期的新業務，其中包括在此期間贏得的幾項重要的策略設計項目。

This competitive success gives us confidence that we will continue to take share despite near-term challenges to monetize these wins within the current climate. So as we look ahead to 2021, we have a clear action plan to execute on our proven strategy, focused on innovation leadership, diversification and global scale. This enables us to manage well through current conditions, and it positions us to continue leading as the macro environment improves, which we expect to happen in the second half of 2021.

這項競爭優勢讓我們更有信心，儘管在當前環境下短期內難以將這些勝利轉化為實際收益，但我們仍將繼續擴大市場份額。展望2021年，我們制定了清晰的行動計劃，以執行我們行之有效的策略，該策略專注於創新領導、多元化和全球規模。這使我們能夠有效應對當前的挑戰，並為我們在宏觀環境改善後繼續保持領先地位奠定了基礎，我們預計宏觀環境將在2021年下半年改善。

The strength of our business model also allows us to continue investing strategically in our portfolio and go-to-market capabilities, even in the face of uncertain short-term market conditions. Specifically, we will strengthen our technology market leadership during the course of the year in core networks, particularly in DCI, submarine and long core networks, which are obviously under constant pressure to keep pace with ever-growing bandwidth demand. We will also make significant incremental investments to address opportunities and increase our addressable market in fast-growing next-generation metro and access networks, specifically around expanding our IP and automation capabilities. And we'll also capitalize on the momentum we are seeing with Blue Planet to guide customers on their digital transformation journeys. These investments, as always, are a deliberate strategy to extend our leadership position and enable us to continue to take share over the long term.

我們強大的商業模式使我們能夠在短期市場環境充滿不確定性的情況下，繼續對產品組合和市場拓展能力進行策略性投資。具體而言，我們將在今年鞏固核心網路領域的技術市場領導地位，尤其是在資料中心互連（DCI）、海底光纜和長距離核心網路領域，這些領域顯然面臨著持續成長的頻寬需求壓力。我們還將進行大量增量投資，以把握機遇，擴大在快速成長的下一代城域網路和接取網路領域的潛在市場，尤其是在擴展我們的IP和自動化能力方面。此外，我們也將利用Blue Planet計畫的良好勢頭，引導客戶完成數位轉型之旅。這些投資一如既往，是我們為鞏固市場領先地位、實現長期市場份額持續成長而精心製定的策略。

With that, I'll turn over to Jim.

接下來，我將把麥克風交給吉姆。

Thanks, Gary. Hello, everyone. We delivered a solid Q4 performance, which was certainly impacted by the effects of the pandemic. Total revenue in the quarter was $829 million. Q4 adjusted gross margin was 49.5%. In addition to a higher percentage of software sales in the quarter, Q4 adjusted gross margin again reflects a high degree of pandemic-related dynamics.

謝謝，Gary。大家好。我們第四季業績表現穩健，但無疑受到了疫情的影響。本季總營收為 8.29 億美元。第四季調整後毛利率為 49.5%。除了本季軟體銷售額佔比上升外，第四季調整後毛利率也再次高度反映了疫情相關的動態因素。

Specifically, we continue to see a quarterly revenue mix that is comprised of a larger percentage of existing business versus new design wins and early in life projects, which tend to generate lower margins.

具體來說，我們繼續看到季度收入組成中現有業務所佔比例較大，而新設計訂單和早期項目（往往利潤率較低）所佔比例較小。

Adjusted operating expense in the quarter was $279 million. This was higher-than-expected due to an acceleration of investments in certain aspects of our business, including in our people and IT infrastructure, which we expect to continue. Q4 OpEx also included higher-than-expected variable compensation tied in part to our strong profitability metrics in the quarter.

本季經調整後的營運支出為2.79億美元。由於我們加快了對業務某些方面的投資，包括人員和IT基礎設施的投資，因此該支出高於預期，我們預計這些投資將繼續進行。第四季營運支出還包括高於預期的浮動薪酬，部分原因是由於本季我們強勁的獲利能力指標。

With respect to profitability measures, in Q4 we delivered adjusted operating margin of 15.8%, adjusted net income of $94 million and adjusted EPS of $0.60 per share. In addition, in Q4, our adjusted EBITDA was $154 million, and cash from operations was $188 million.

就獲利能力指標而言，第四季度我們實現了15.8%的調整後營業利潤率、9,400萬美元的調整後淨利潤和0.60美元的調整後每股收益。此外，第四季我們調整後的EBITDA為1.54億美元，經營活動產生的現金流為1.88億美元。

With respect to performance for the full fiscal year, annual revenue was $3.53 billion. This reflects a strong contribution from non-telco customers of a record 40% of total revenue in fiscal year '20, up from approximately 37.5% in fiscal year '19. Also includes solid performance with MSO customers, growth with 2 of our major webscale customers and a very strong year in government.

就整個財年的業績而言，年度收入為35.3億美元。這主要得益於非電信客戶的強勁貢獻，其營收佔總營收的比例在2020財年創下歷史新高，達到40%，高於2019財年的約37.5%。此外，MSO客戶的穩健表現、兩家主要網路規模客戶的成長以及政府業務的強勁成長也功不可沒。

While we saw significant quarterly variability as we moved through the year, including a challenging operating environment in the second half, orders slightly exceeded revenue for the full fiscal year. In fact, orders in APJ and EMEA, in aggregate, were up 9% year-over-year. Orders in subsea were also up 9% year-over-year.

儘管全年各季度業績波動較大，包括下半年充滿挑戰的經營環境，但全年訂單量略高於收入。事實上，亞太及日本地區（APJ）和歐洲、中東及非洲地區（EMEA）的訂單總量較去年同期成長9%。海底業務訂單也較去年同期成長9%。

Moving to profitability. Adjusted operating margin in fiscal 2020 was 17.6%, and adjusted EPS was $2.95. And finally, free cash flow for the year was $411 million, which represents 66% of adjusted operating income.

接下來談談獲利能力。 2020財年調整後營業利益率為17.6%，調整後每股盈餘為2.95美元。最後，該年度自由現金流為4.11億美元，佔調整後營業收入的66%。

As Gary mentioned, we ended the year with approximately $1.3 billion in cash and investments. Our balance sheet remains a significant competitive differentiator, particularly in the current environment in which financial strength and resiliency are critical. Our strong balance sheet and cash flow generation also affords us the flexibility to continue investing in our business for the long term while returning capital to shareholders.

正如加里所提到的，我們年底的現金和投資總額約為13億美元。我們的資產負債表仍然是一項重要的競爭優勢，尤其是在當前財務實力和韌性至關重要的環境下。我們強勁的資產負債表和現金流也使我們能夠靈活地繼續對業務進行長期投資，同時向股東返還資本。

And to the last point, we will be reinstituting our buyback program in the first quarter of 2021 and are currently targeting repurchases in the range of $150 million during fiscal 2021.

最後一點，我們將於 2021 年第一季重新啟動股票回購計劃，目前的目標是在 2021 財年回購 1.5 億美元左右。

Turning now to guidance. Given the uncertainty stemming from the pandemic and the resulting market and industry dynamics that we've described, we are not in a position to provide specific 3-year financial targets at this time. However, our long-term financial goals remain unchanged. We plan to deliver additional operating leverage while growing faster than the market as we've proven our ability to do over the years.

現在談談業績展望。鑑於疫情帶來的不確定性以及我們先前所述的市場和產業動態變化，我們目前無法提供具體的三年財務目標。但是，我們的長期財務目標保持不變。我們計劃在維持高於市場平均成長的同時，進一步提升營運槓桿，正如我們多年來所展現的那樣。

Setting aside the temporary challenges driven by COVID today, we see no change in underlying secular demand for bandwidth and automation that drives our business. As a result, we believe that as the impact of the pandemic ameliorates, the market is likely to return to the growth in the low to mid-single digits range as we've seen for so many years. We also believe that we will continue to take share. I want to emphasize here that this market view is really unchanged from our outlook pre-COVID. As Gary mentioned, we will continue to invest strategically in the business, and we expect to grow our OpEx at a rate below that of revenue growth for the next 3 years in aggregate.

撇開新冠疫情帶來的暫時性挑戰不談，我們認為驅動我們業務發展的頻寬和自動化的長期需求並未改變。因此，我們相信，隨著疫情影響的緩解，市場有望恢復到多年來一直保持的低至中等個位數成長水準。我們也相信，我們將繼續擴大市場份額。我想在此強調，這一市場觀點與疫情前的預期並無二致。正如Gary所提到的，我們將繼續對業務進行策略性投資，並預計未來三年營運支出成長將低於收入成長速度。

And a comment about gross margin. We've talked a lot about gross margin and the effects of -- on gross margin of the revenue mix caused by the pandemic.

還有一點關於毛利率的評論。我們已經多次討論過毛利率以及疫情導致的收入結構變化對毛利率的影響。

We have also said that we believe that our current run rate margin, once our revenue returns to a more normal percentage of new business, is between 43% and 45%. Based on what we're seeing, we now believe that our current run rate margin has increased a bit to the mid-40s. On the point of long-term guidance, as visibility improves, we will revisit issuing these long-term financial targets.

我們之前也曾表示，一旦營收恢復到新業務佔比較為正常的水平，我們目前的年化利潤率預計在43%到45%之間。根據目前的觀察，我們現在認為目前的年化利潤率已略有提升，達到40%左右。關於長期業績指引，隨著前景的明朗化，我們將重新評估並發布這些長期財務目標。

With respect to fiscal 2021, we are providing our typical level of annual guidance. However, it is important to consider the key assumptions that underlie our current outlook for the year. Specifically, our 2021 guidance is predicated on a discernible improvement to the current industry and economic conditions, including a more balanced prioritization by our service provider customers of new architectures and deployments that enables us to operationalize and monetize the design wins we have secured with several key accounts.

關於2021財年，我們將提供與往年相同的業績指引。然而，重要的是要考慮我們當前年度展望所依據的關鍵假設。具體而言，我們2021年的業績指引基於當前行業和經濟狀況的顯著改善，包括我們的服務提供商客戶對新架構和部署的優先級更加均衡，這將使我們能夠將已從幾個重要客戶處獲得的設計項目投入運營並實現盈利。

With that context and set of assumptions, we expect to grow our annual revenue at or slightly faster than market in a range of 0% to 3%, with a stronger than typical second half as conditions improve. We expect continued strong adjusted gross margin in fiscal '21 for the full year. Specifically, first half adjusted gross margin is likely to be in the mid- to high-40s range, driven by our revenue mix tilted heavily toward existing business. As conditions improve and we begin to operationalize new wins, our second half adjusted gross margin will likely come down from those levels and return to the mid-40s range by the end of the year. We believe that our gross margin for the full fiscal year will be between 45% and 47%.

基於上述背景和假設，我們預期年度營收將以0%至3%的速度成長，或略高於市場平均水平，下半年隨著市場環境的改善，營收成長將高於往年同期水準。我們預計2021財年全年調整後毛利率將維持強勁成長。具體而言，由於我們的營收結構主要依賴現有業務，因此上半年調整後毛利率可能在40%左右。隨著市場環境的改善以及新業務的逐步落地，下半年調整後毛利率可能會回落，並在年底前回落至40%左右。我們預計2021財年全年毛利率將在45%至47%之間。

With respect to OpEx, we are deliberately maintaining our investments in certain aspects of our business across people, operations and product development to ensure that we strengthen our leadership position and emerge from the current environment with an even greater competitive advantage than we have today. Accordingly, we expect adjusted operating expense to average between $270 million and $275 million per quarter in fiscal year '21, although it will vary from quarter-to-quarter as it always does. We are making these investment decisions because of the strength and durability of our business and operating model as well as our confidence in future secular growth in bandwidth and demand for our products.

在營運支出方面，我們有意維持對業務某些方面的投資，包括人員、營運和產品開發，以確保鞏固我們的領先地位，並在當前環境下擁有比現在更大的競爭優勢。因此，我們預計2021財年調整後的營運支出平均每季在2.7億美元至2.75億美元之間，但與以往一樣，各季度之間會有所波動。我們做出這些投資決策是基於我們業務和營運模式的穩健性和可持續性，以及我們對未來頻寬和產品需求長期成長的信心。

Finally, we expect adjusted operating margin in fiscal '21 to be in a range of 15% to 16%. Finally, for our fiscal first quarter 2021 performance, we expect to deliver revenue in a range of $735 million to $765 million, adjusted gross margin in the 47% to 49% range, adjusted operating expense of approximately $265 million to $270 million. And we expect our adjusted tax rate will be between 20% and 21%.

最後，我們預計2021財年調整後營業利潤率將介於15%至16%之間。此外，對於2021財年第一季業績，我們預計營收將在7.35億美元至7.65億美元之間，調整後毛利率將在47%至49%之間，調整後營業費用約為2.65億美元至2.7億美元。我們預計調整後稅率將在20%至21%之間。

In closing, we are performing well, and we are very confident in the future. Fundamental demand drivers are strong, and we are winning new business as the market leader, positioning us for even greater performance as overall conditions begin to improve in the second half of fiscal 2021. Importantly, we are demonstrating that our scale, focus and financial stability are competitive advantages that enable us to meet our customers' needs, deliver strong profitability and return capital to shareholders.

總之，我們目前業績表現良好，對未來充滿信心。基本面需求強勁，身為市場領導者，我們不斷贏得新業務，這為我們在2021財年下半年整體市場環境好轉時取得更佳業績奠定了基礎。更重要的是，我們正在證明，我們的規模、專注度和財務穩定性是我們的競爭優勢，使我們能夠滿足客戶需求，實現強勁盈利，並為股東帶來豐厚回報。

With that, operator, we'll now take questions from the sell-side analysts.

話音剛落，操作員，接下來我們將接受賣方分析師的提問。

(Operator Instructions) Your first question comes from Rod Hall of Goldman Sachs.

（操作員說明）您的第一個問題來自高盛的羅德·霍爾。

I wanted to start off, I guess, with the OpEx question since that came in a little bit higher. And I know, Jim, and you had commented on that. Could you maybe dive into a little bit more detail on why you're deciding to invest now, given it's such a tough environment? And then where you're investing? What types of people you're hiring? What is it that you're focused on from an investment point of view?

我想先從營運成本（OpEx）的問題談起，因為這個問題佔比比較高。我知道吉姆，你也提過這一點。鑑於目前市場環境如此艱難，你能否更詳細地解釋為什麼選擇在這個時候投資？你的投資方向是什麼？你正在招募哪些類型的人才？從投資的角度來看，你的關注點是什麼？

And then secondly, I thought I would go back to the visibility. You're talking about H2 of next year being stronger than H1. What is it that gives you confidence in that? And why don't we start to see some recovery in Q2? I know people are beginning to talk about, for instance, the accelerated 5G investment by midyear. So could you talk a little bit about what sort of visibility you have? Or is this just a general assumption that COVID starts to slow by the second half and the carriers begin to invest again?

其次，我想再談談前景的可見性。您提到明年下半年會比上半年表現更好。是什麼讓您對此充滿信心？為什麼我們在第二季看不到任何復甦跡象？我知道有人開始討論，例如，到年中將加速5G投資。您能否談談您對未來的預期？或者這只是一個普遍的假設，即新冠疫情將在下半年開始放緩，營運商也將重新開始投資？

Thanks, Rod. I assume your OpEx question really has to do with '21. You're good on the quarter.

謝謝，羅德。我猜你關於營運支出的問題其實是指2021年。你這季度沒問題。

Well, no, I was really asking about the quarter just reported, Jim, and that it's a little bit higher than usual. And then you're talking about spending a little bit more. It sounds like in the short term, '21 is more or less in line with our forecast. So I don't -- actually there, it doesn't seem like you're -- it seems like it's more of a short-term first couple of quarter phenomenon we're looking at here and some investment, but I'm just not clear on what it is you're investing in exactly.

不，吉姆，我其實是問你剛公佈的季度業績，它比平常略高一些。然後你又提到支出略有增加。聽起來短期來看，2021年的業績基本上符合我們的預測。所以，實際上，這似乎更像是我們目前看到的短期現象，也就是前幾季的現象，以及一些投資，但我不太清楚你們具體投資的是什麼。

Fair enough. Well, a couple of things. One is that we've come through this year in a situation in which all of our employees basically all are working from home. And through the year, we have made investments in their well-being, comfort and computer connections, personal computer connections, and we accelerated that a bit in Q4. It's really mostly about making sure that our people can operate comfortably and productively in the home.

好吧。有幾點要說明。首先，今年我們所有員工基本上都在家工作。這一年來，我們一直在投資改善他們的福祉、舒適度和電腦連接（包括個人電腦連接），並在第四季度加大了投入。我們的主要目標是確保員工在家中也能舒適有效率地工作。

Also, the variable comp. That has to do with the fact that our profitability for the quarter came in a bit higher than we thought it was going to. And our -- many of our people, including salespeople, have an element of their variable comp that's tied to profitability. So that was another piece that came in.

此外，還有浮動薪酬。這與我們本季的獲利略高於預期有關。我們許多員工，包括銷售人員，他們的浮動薪酬有一部分與獲利掛鉤。所以這也是影響薪酬調整的另一個因素。

So Rod, on the on the second part of your question, what gives us confidence, I guess, in the uptick in the second half, I guess, it's a number of elements.

羅德，關於你問題的第二部分，是什麼讓我們對下半年的成長充滿信心，我想，這有很多因素。

First of all, I think what we're seeing is that right now, service providers generally are very risk adverse for any sort of new business, rolling out new network, new architecture. They're running the networks hotter, that's for sure. And they're also, I think, to some extent, focused on access points as opposed to the metro and the core, which is understandable.

首先，我認為我們目前看到的是，服務提供者普遍對任何類型的新業務，包括部署新網路和新架構，都非常規避風險。可以肯定的是，他們的網路運作負荷更高。而且，我認為他們在某種程度上也更關注接入點，而不是城域網路和核心網，這也可以理解。

Things that gives us confidence are the wins that we've already had, that we've been much slower to monetize. Obviously, it's not binary. We are rolling out some of those but at a much slower rate. And the assumption is that the COVID overhang ameliorates during the course of the first half. And then this pipeline that we've built up of new business activity begins to kick in because the secular demand, as you say, for things like 5G and all the rest of it, it needs this network infrastructure to be successful. And it's sort of -- I'd describe the environment right now is somewhat bifurcated from the new business wins and deployment, definitely slower. But the actual activity of RFPs, planning engagements and the rest of it have continued unabated. And as I said in my comments, we're winning more than our fair share of that as you would expect, given our technology leadership and scale.

讓我們充滿信心的是我們已取得的成功，儘管我們獲利的速度要慢得多。當然，情況並非非此即彼。我們正在推進其中一些項目的落地，但速度確實較慢。我們預計，新冠疫情的影響將在上半年逐漸緩解。屆時，我們累積的新業務活動管道將開始發揮作用，因為正如您所說，對5G等技術的長期需求，都需要相應的網路基礎設施才能成功運作。目前的情況有點兩極化——一方面是新業務的拓展和部署，部署速度明顯放緩；另一方面是實際的招標、規劃等活動，這些活動一直在持續進行。正如我之前所說，鑑於我們的技術領先地位和規模，我們贏得的份額遠超預期。

So as best we can tell, our business is normally fiscally second half loaded. But I think it's going to be a more extreme hockey stick this time around as best we can tell. So those are the underlying assumptions and engagements with the customers that give us some confidence that we're going to see this uptick in the second half and sort of normal service is resumed kind of thing.

據我們所知，我們的業務通常在下半年達到高峰。但我認為這次的成長動能會更加強勁。這些基本假設以及與客戶的溝通讓我們有信心，下半年業務將會回升，服務也將逐漸恢復正常。

The other thing I'd add to that, Rod, is that many of -- or much of our revenue in any given quarter results from orders taken in the quarter before that. And so we do expect a pickup in orders in our Q2. It just won't evidence itself in the form of higher revenue, we don't believe, until sort of Q3. That's our view.

羅德，我還要補充一點，我們每季的大部分收入都來自上個季度的訂單。因此，我們預計第二季的訂單量會有所回升。但我們認為，這種回升要到第三季左右才會轉化為更高的收入。這是我們的看法。

Your next question comes from George Notter of Jefferies LLC.

下一個問題來自 Jefferies LLC 的 George Notter。

I guess I wanted to stay on the discussion of OpEx. And so if I look at -- if I look at your selling and marketing costs, they were quite a bit higher than they were, for example, in the July quarter. And your gross margins are incrementally higher than July, not tremendously higher. So I guess I'm wondering if it's just simply profitability that's driving the increased compensation expense? Or if there's something else in there that's driving that? I guess what I'm getting at is I'm wondering what bookings look like in the October quarter. Obviously, I think you guys incentivized your salespeople based on bookings as well. But what's the narrative there?

我想繼續討論營運支出（OpEx）。如果我看一下你們的銷售和行銷成本，會發現它們比例如七月份的季度高出不少。你們的毛利率也比七月略有提高，但提升幅度並不算非常大。所以我想知道，僅僅是盈利能力的提高導致了薪酬支出的增加嗎？還是說還有其他因素在起作用？我想問的是，十月的訂單狀況如何？顯然，我知道你們也根據訂單量來激勵銷售人員。但具體情況是怎麼樣的呢？

Our bookings came in close to what we expected, maybe a little bit better. But I'd say this, remember, George, that in the fourth quarter of every year is when people start hitting their accelerators, the sales people start hitting their accelerators. I think that's really what drives the sales comp in Q4. We typically have higher sales comp in the fourth quarter as compared to other quarters as well. But it's just that the mechanics of the computation worked out that our sales comp was quite a bit higher in the quarter.

我們的預訂量基本上符合預期，甚至可能略好一些。但我想說的是，喬治，記住，每年的第四季都是大家開始全力以赴的時候，銷售人員也開始全力以赴。我認為這才是第四季銷售額成長的真正驅動因素。通常來說，我們第四季的銷售額也會高於其他季度。只是因為電腦制的原因，我們第四季的銷售額確實高出不少。

Got it. Okay. That's helpful. And then just as I guess a follow-up on that. Did you guys have a backlog number? Or should we wait for the 10-K for that?

明白了。好的。這很有幫助。然後我想再問一下，你們有積壓訂單的數量嗎？還是我們需要等到10-K報告出來才能知道？

Backlog is just under $1.2 billion, $1.9 (sic) [$1.19] billion something. I'm sorry.

積壓訂單金額略低於12億美元，或19億美元（原文如此）[11.9億美元]。抱歉。

$1.19 billion?

11.9億美元？

That's right. Yes, yes.

沒錯。是的，沒錯。

Your next question comes from Simon Leopold of Raymond James.

你的下一個問題來自 Raymond James 公司的 Simon Leopold。

I wanted to see if maybe you could update us on your views of a long debated topic around white box competition in the optical space. I know you've mentioned you plan on having your pluggable products out later this year. But just want to get a sense of what you're seeing there, particularly how it affects your thoughts on your webscale business in fiscal '21? And I've got a follow-up.

我想了解一下您對光學領域白盒競爭這個長期爭論的話題的看法。我知道您曾提到計劃在今年稍後推出可插拔產品。但我只是想了解一下您對此的看法，特別是它對您2021財年網路規模業務的規劃有何影響？另外，我還有一個後續問題。

Rod, It's Scott. The long debated white box topic, yes. So I put it this way, Rod. I don't see white boxes in the optical space as being a dominant deployment scenario for lots of reasons, primarily, which the economics just don't drive it like it has in some of the other segments of the marketplace.

羅德，我是史考特。沒錯，就是那個爭論已久的白盒話題。這麼說吧，羅德，我不認為白盒在光纖領域會成為主流部署方案，原因有很多，最主要的是，經濟效益並不像在其他一些市場領域那樣驅動著它的發展。

Having said that, there are places in the market that are pursuing that. And our play there is a couple fold. Number one, there's still an end-to-end system play even in that scenario because people have to deploy software and line systems and control this. But also the pluggable market, there are very few folks that I think are capable of delivering those high-performance pluggables, and we're being one of them. So we have -- we would have the exposure to that market as well. All of those dynamics, I'd say, are factored into our perspective of 2021. And by the way, I actually don't think it will be much of a dynamic in '21 at all.

話雖如此，市場上確實有一些公司正在追求這種模式。我們在這方面的佈局包含兩方面。首先，即使在這種情況下，端到端系統仍然不可或缺，因為人們需要部署軟體和線路系統並進行控制。其次，在可插拔產品市場，我認為能夠提供高性能可插拔產品的公司寥寥無幾，而我們正是其中之一。因此，我們也將涉足這個市場。我認為，所有這些因素都已納入我們對2021年的展望。順便說一句，我實際上認為2021年這方面不會有太大的變化。

Great. And just a follow up -- sorry.

太好了。還有一個後續問題——抱歉。

(inaudible) Sorry, Simon, go ahead.

（聽不清楚）對不起，西蒙，你繼續。

The follow-up, hopefully, is pretty simple. Your top traditional North American operator customers, AT&T and Verizon, have been a bit softer. One topic I've heard debate on, and I like your view, is how their spending patterns with Ciena may or may not be related to spectrum auctions? And where I'm going with this is what will be the factors that lead them to come back to more normal spending patterns?

後續問題應該比較簡單。你們在北美的主要傳統營運商客戶，AT&T 和 Verizon，最近消費有所放緩。我聽到有人討論過一個話題，我也很贊同你的觀點，那就是他們與 Ciena 的消費模式是否與頻譜拍賣有關？我想探討的是，哪些因素會促使他們恢復到正常的消費水準？

I think what you're seeing, if you look at the sort of the large Tier 1s, there are a couple of the large Tier 1s in North America were very kind of front-end loaded in '20. Some of that, I think, was also about supply chain provisioning and making sure that they've got that when COVID first happened. So to some extent, it's sort of normal ebbs and flows of that.

我認為，如果你觀察一下那些大型一級供應商，你會發現北美有幾家大型一級供應商在2020年初就進行了大量的採購。我認為，部分原因也是為了確保供應鏈的穩定供應，以應對新冠疫情初期可能出現的供應短缺。所以，在某種程度上，這屬於正常的市場波動。

In our dialogue with them and engagement as we get into '21, I think you are going to see a stronger second half for some of those large carriers. And I don't think that's particularly affected by this whole sort of notion of the auction cost. I think what we're seeing is pretty steady visibility in terms of -- now, we're engaged with these major carriers pretty much on all of their strategic platforms and across all of their business. And we see it pretty steady. But with a forecast for an uptick in the second half.

隨著我們與這些大型航空公司進入2021年，在與他們進行對話和互動的過程中，我認為一些大型航空公司下半年的業績將會更加強勁。而且我認為這並不會受到拍賣成本概念的特別影響。目前，我們與這些主要航空公司在其所有策略平台和業務領域都進行了接觸，我們看到了相當穩定的前景。但預計下半年業績將有所成長。

Your next question comes from Meta Marshall of Morgan Stanley.

你的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的梅塔馬歇爾。

Great. You spoke to kind of conservatism around the planning around some of your customers. I just wanted to get a sense of whether you had attempted to quantify maybe kind of international installation challenges or kind of slower lab testing just as kind of a drag right now as COVID-specific drags. And then I know we kind of talked about last quarter that you still thought that open line systems or maybe a -- were not going to be a method of Huawei replacement. I'm just kind of getting an update as far as what you're seeing as far as customers looking to kind of replace Huawei and what time lines that could be on?

好的。您剛才提到有些客戶在規劃上比較保守。我想了解一下，您是否嘗試量化國際安裝方面的挑戰，或者實驗室測試速度放緩等因素，這些因素目前可能與新冠疫情帶來的其他影響一樣，都造成了一定的阻礙。我知道我們在上個季度討論過，您仍然認為開放式線路系統或其他方案不太可能成為華為設備的替代方案。我想了解一下，目前有哪些客戶正在考慮替換華為設備，以及大概需要多長時間？

Okay. Why don't I take the first part of that matter, in terms of the -- what we're seeing? From the initial impact of COVID, it was really around just the velocity then of installation. That's largely been ameliorated with various protocols and stuff, stuff people can get to site, et cetera. But then what we saw was really a deprioritization of new builds because they didn't want to risk messing around with the network at a time when you've got all this capacity going on it. So really, I think they've made the decision to run it hotter for a little bit. It's not completely binary. I mean, we are deploying stuff. We are engaged in labs, we figured out ways of doing that. So that's why I said, it's sort of -- it feels somewhat bifurcated. There's lots of planning going on and activity and RFP activity and awards. But it's just not being deployed very quickly, and we haven't really seen much of a change to that ever since last quarter really.

好的。我先來說說這件事的第一部分，也就是我們目前看到的情況。新冠疫情初期，主要影響的是安裝速度。隨著各種防疫措施的實施，以及人員可以到達現場等等，這個問題基本上已經得到緩解。但隨後我們看到的是，新建專案的優先順序有所降低，因為他們不想在網路容量如此緊張的情況下冒險進行任何改動。所以，我認為他們實際上是決定暫時提高網路運行負荷。情況並非完全非此即彼。我的意思是，我們確實在部署專案。我們參與了實驗室研究，也找到了相應的解決方案。所以我才說，情況有點——感覺像是兩極化。有許多規劃、活動、招標和授標工作正在進行中。但部署速度卻很慢，而且自上個季度以來，這種情況並沒有太大改善。

But you look at the -- the demand continues to build, the engagement with them around new awards continues unabated. So that's pretty much the dynamic we've got. I mean, obviously, particularly in Europe, more recently, you're seeing more restrictions because of the COVID piece. That's not particularly impacting us somewhat perversely because we're not actually doing a lot of those new business deployments. So we're not seeing too much impact from that, if that answers your question.

但你看，需求持續成長，圍繞新獎項的互動也絲毫沒有減弱。這就是我們目前面臨的動態。我的意思是，顯然，尤其是在歐洲，最近由於新冠疫情的影響，出現了更多限制。但有點出乎意料的是，這並沒有對我們造成太大影響，因為我們實際上並沒有進行很多新的業務拓展。所以，如果這回答了你的問題，那麼我們並沒有受到太大影響。

Yes, that's helpful.

是的，這很有幫助。

Okay. Scott, do you want to take the line system?

好的。史考特，你想走排隊路線嗎？

Yes. Meta, I mean, the open line system concept and an approach to actually take, I say, next-generation optics technology and run it over a legacy system is not new. If you want to think about it in this purest form, when we got into the submarine business by doing exactly that, overlaying line systems, and we've been doing that for a decade or close to a decade. So that's not new.

是的。我的意思是，開放式線路系統的概念，以及將下一代光學技術應用於現有系統的方法，其實並不新鮮。如果從最純粹的角度來看，我們當初進入潛水艇業務時就是這麼做的，即在現有線路系統上疊加應用，而且我們已經這樣做了近十年。所以，這並不是什麼新鮮事。

As it applies to Huawei now, comments in the past, I think were -- that's not necessarily the trigger. The trigger is twofold. #1 is just the lift of actually moving. Operationally, all those circuits that may be sitting on the Huawei network to -- touching the customers, touching the back office system, is a heavy lift for our customers, and that will take time. The other thing, though, is their prioritization around moving away from Huawei, a lot of press around the RAN network and that is getting the priority that we see around the world as opposed to, I'll say, the core infrastructure, the core optical infrastructure, with possible exception, we are seeing some activity in India.

就華為目前的情況而言，我認為過去的評論——那未必是真正的觸發因素。觸發因素有兩個面向。第一，是實際遷移的難度。從營運層面來說，所有可能位於華為網路上的電路——連接到客戶、連接到後台系統——對我們的客戶來說都是一項艱鉅的任務，需要時間。另一方面，他們優先考慮的是擺脫華為，媒體對無線接入網（RAN）的報道很多，而且我們看到，RAN在全球範圍內都獲得了優先權，而不是核心基礎設施，例如核心光纖基礎設施。當然，在印度，我們也看到了一些例外。

Your next question comes from Paul Silverstein of Cowen and Company.

你的下一個問題來自 Cowen and Company 的 Paul Silverstein。

Jim, can you comment on pricing environment? Are you seeing a change for better or worse? And can you comment on what you're seeing from webscale customers in particular? Any concerns about Amazon's project progress and impact from a longer-term standpoint?

吉姆，你能談談定價環境嗎？你覺得價格變好了還是變差了？你能否特別談談你從網路規模客戶觀察到的情況？從長遠來看，你對亞馬遜的專案進展和​​影響有什麼擔憂嗎？

That was more than one question, Paul. But I'd tell you that the pricing environment really it's not meaningfully changed. We do have one company that's been a very significant price aggressor in the industry. It's a company that doesn't have an 800-gig product. And so I think they're using price to try to maintain or gain market share in some cases.

保羅，你問的問題不只一個。但我可以告訴你，價格環境其實並沒有實質的變化。我們確實有一家公司在業界價格戰中扮演了非常重要的角色。這家公司並沒有800G的產品。所以我認為，在某些情況下，他們是利用價格戰來維持或擴大市場佔有率。

So I'd say it really hasn't changed very much. But I think that at the margin, we have improved our gross margin slightly because of all the things that we're doing to take cost out of our systems.

所以我覺得其實變化不大。但我認為，由於我們採取了各種措施來降低系統成本，我們的毛利率在邊際上略有增加。

And with respect to the webscale, we still think that their spend this year is a bit lower than we entered the year. It's a difficulty in getting data centers built and all that sort of thing. But by and large, we're doing well. We think essentially, we retain share with them.

至於網路規模方面，我們仍然認為他們今年的支出比年初略低。建設資料中心等等都存在困難。但總的來說，我們做得很好。我們認為，我們基本上保住了他們的市場份額。

And with regard to specifics about any one customer, we just can't do that. But we do know that certain webscale customers are experimenting with -- might say, grow your own technology. We think we've adequately captured that in our guidance for the year.

至於任何特定客戶的具體情況，我們無法透露。但我們確實知道，一些網路規模的客戶正在嘗試——或者說，自主研發技術。我們認為，我們在年度業績指引中已經充分體現了這一點。

Your next question comes from John Marchetti of Stifel, Nicolaus.

你的下一個問題來自 Stifel Nicolaus 公司的 John Marchetti。

Jim, in regards to your outlook for '21, you talk about the second half being better. But I'm just curious if we've often seen the first quarter still be the trough of the business, and then it moves up from there. And I'm wondering if, at least that seasonal pattern you expect to hold true as you're going through fiscal '21?

吉姆，關於你對2021年的展望，你提到下半年會好轉。但我很好奇，我們是否經常看到第一季仍然是業務的低谷，然後之後才會開始好轉。我想知道，至少在你看來，這種季節性規律在2021財年是否仍然適用？

The pattern is going to be the same as it has always been. Our first quarter has always been lighter, and then we've strengthened as we move through the year. Second half has typically been better than the first half. We expect that trend to be the same. However, because we will have a meaningfully lower first half than maybe our trend line has been, the difference between the first and second half will be more exaggerated this year. In fact, if you just do the numbers, John, and I'm sure you have, it's pretty obvious. Our second half is quite a bit higher than our first half.

模式將與以往相同。我們第一季的業績歷來較為疲軟，然後隨著年內推進逐漸增強。通常情況下，下半年業績會優於上半年。我們預計這一趨勢也將如此。然而，由於今年上半年業績將顯著低於我們預期的水平，因此上下半年的差距將會更加明顯。事實上，約翰，如果你仔細計算一下數據（我相信你已經計算過了），這一點顯而易見。我們下半年的業績將遠高於上半年。

Right. And then maybe just on a different topic, Gary. As you're looking at a lot of the interest or the activity around the new WaveLogic chipset, for the service providers, how much of that is true 800-gig focus versus improving performance of 400 and maybe even 100 to 200-gig systems in terms of increasing the distance and their efficiencies and whatnot? I'm just curious, how we think about that dynamic playing out as we're looking more into the second half of next year and maybe even into '22?

好的。然後，Gary，我們再換個話題。鑑於服務供應商對新款 WaveLogic 晶片組的關注度很高，他們關注的重點究竟有多少是真正的 800G 系統，又有多少是提升 400G 甚至 100G 到 200G 系統的效能，例如提高傳輸距離和效率等等？我很好奇，隨著我們展望明年下半年，甚至可能到 2022 年，這種趨勢會如何發展？

John, we talked about this before. We use 800-gig as an easy handle for basically twice the performance of the previous generation, and that performance is used in various different applications. And actually, it's quite difficult for us to even keep track of how much of that is going to be dialed up at 800-gig versus 750-gig versus 700-gig, et cetera, cause you can set the dial to wherever you need it to be to get the maximum price per bit performance. That's one of the value propositions around the technology.

約翰，我們之前討論過這個問題。我們以 800G 作為衡量標準，它基本上代表了上一代產品效能的兩倍，而這種效能提升可以應用於各種不同的場景。實際上，我們很難準確統計 800G、750G 和 700G 等不同規格下的性能提升幅度，因為你可以根據需要調整規格，以獲得最佳的每比特性價比。這正是這項技術的價值所在。

I will say this, and this may help sort of as a surrogate to it. Up until now, about 2/3 of the volume that Gary talked about has been on a 6500 platform, 1/3 on Waveserver. So that may give you some idea of the split between service providers and webscales. Not perfect, but that's an indicator.

我還要補充一點，這或許能起到一定的輔助作用。到目前為止，Gary提到的交易量中，大約三分之二是在6500平台上完成的，三分之一是在Waveserver平台上完成的。這或許能讓你大致了解服務供應商和Web規模伺服器之間的交易量比例。雖然並不完全準確，但這確實是一個參考指標。

Your next question comes from Alex Henderson of Needham.

下一個問題來自尼德姆的亞歷克斯·亨德森。

I was hoping you could focus a little bit on the India market and talk a little bit about what you're seeing there in terms of their reopening, the implications of the Chinese vendors all being banned. My estimate that, that's about somewhere between 30%, 35% market share opportunity in that geography, and you guys are the #2 player if you split Huawei, ZTE and FiberHome. And to what -- how long do you think it will take for that to open up? And then I know one of the vendors, one of the service providers there has the vast majority of their network on that. How do they approach -- or how do you think they'll approach the replacement process? Any time lines for those decisions and implications hitting your P&L would be extremely helpful.

我希望您能重點談談印度市場，以及您觀察到的當地市場重新開放的情況，還有中國供應商被禁的影響。我估計，在印度市場，貴公司大約有30%到35%的市佔率機會。如果把華為、中興和烽火分開來看，貴公司是第二大廠商。您認為印度市場需要多久才能完全開放？另外，我知道當地一家供應商，一家服務供應商，他們的大部分網路都依賴中國供應商。他們會如何進行網路替換？或者您認為他們會如何進行網路替換？如果您能提供相關決策的時間表以及對貴公司損益表的影響，那就太好了。

Alex, yes. The India market has been obviously very challenging in the last sort of 18 months or so, initially from just the economic issues there and some of this issue around the taxation of the service providers, et cetera. And they've also done large builds in the previous couple of years. So it definitely was a lull. And then the impact of COVID, I think, has been disproportionately affected on their -- they're rolling out their new network. So it's been a very down market for the last sort of couple of years. Although, as you say, there's still -- the activity has continued around new architectures and build-outs because it's still got a long way to go. I think specifically as it relates to Huawei, I mean what we're seeing in India is, if you compare and contrast it to EMEA, Europe, India have moved much faster, I think, to really mitigate their exposure to Huawei, which is about, as you say, roughly about 25% to 30% of the total infrastructure is with Huawei.

是的，Alex。過去一年半左右，印度市場顯然面臨巨大的挑戰，最初是由於當地的經濟問題，以及服務提供者的稅收等問題。此外，他們在過去幾年也進行了大規模的網路建設。所以，市場確實經歷了一段低迷期。我認為，新冠疫情對他們的影響尤其嚴重——他們正在部署新的網路。因此，過去幾年印度市場一直處於低迷狀態。不過，正如你所說，圍繞新架構和網路建設的活動仍在繼續，因為印度還有很長的路要走。我認為，就華為而言，我們在印度看到的情況是，與歐洲、中東和非洲地區相比，印度在降低對華為的風險敞口方面行動得更快，正如你所說，印度大約25%到30%的基礎設施都使用了華為的產品。

Now just like anything, it takes time because you've got back office systems, et cetera, but they seem to be approaching this more aggressively than the European carriers. I think that's for sure. Unclear exactly how that will play out, Alex. But we've seen a couple of opportunities on the packet side that we've won. They won't get deployed until the second half of this year. But we are beginning to see that movement, and we do see that as a tailwind for us, particularly if we think that the effects of COVID ameliorate a little in the first half and then the India market begins to move again. And then there's really sort of 2 to 3 carriers there. And as you say, the third carrier is very dependent on Huawei. And they are making plans to migrate away from that. Always takes longer than you think. But we're actually quite bullish around the India market as we move forward into the second half of '21 and into '22.

就像任何事情一樣，這需要時間，因為涉及後台系統等等，但他們似乎比歐洲營運商更積極主動。這點毋庸置疑。 Alex，目前還不清楚最終結果會如何。但我們在數據包方面已經贏得了一些機會。這些項目要到今年下半年才能部署。但我們已經開始看到這種趨勢，我們認為這對我們來說是一個利好，尤其是在我們認為新冠疫情的影響在上半年有所緩解，印度市場開始復甦的情況下。目前印度市場實際上只有兩到三家業者。正如你所說，第三家業者非常依賴華為。他們正在製定計劃擺脫對華為的依賴。這總是比你想像的要花更多時間。但展望2021年下半年和2022年，我們對印度市場其實相當樂觀。

Again, just going back to the point. It's obviously a very large decision process for some of these vendors. Can you give us any sense of when you think that wholesale network deployment decisions might be made in that geography? I mean, taking that one example, 1 customer with, what, 80% of their network or something of that sort, on Huawei. Obviously, that's a huge decision. And then the other piece of that is you have seen Jio raise some $20 billion. What do you think the impact of that is?

再說回正題。對一些供應商來說，這顯然是一個非常重大的決策過程。您能否大致估算一下，您認為在那個地區，大規模網路部署決策大概會在什麼時候做出？比如說，假設某個客戶80%的網路都部署了華為的設備，這顯然是一個非常重大的決定。另外，您也看到Jio融資了200億美元，您認為這會產生什麼影響？

I think we ought to be clear, we've already seen some of that movement. We've won some of that business. We have not deployed it yet, but we've seen some of that migration away from Huawei in India more aggressively than we've seen it in Europe. And even during the course of the last couple of quarters, we won business, specifically around the Huawei replacement. Now it always takes longer than you think. If you're asking me for a time line, it's 1 to 3 years before you really play that through, but it's moving. And decisions are being made now by all of these carriers, around mitigating their exposure to Huawei. Some have more exposure than others. But those decisions are being made, and we are winning more than our fair share of that business.

我認為我們應該明確一點，我們已經看到了一些這樣的趨勢。我們也贏得了一些業務。雖然我們還沒有完全部署，但我們看到印度營運商從華為轉向其他產品的趨勢比歐洲更為明顯。即使在過去的幾個季度裡，我們也贏得了不少業務，尤其是在華為替代方案方面。當然，這個過程總是比你想像的還要長。如果你問我具體的時間表，那可能需要1到3年的時間才能真正完成，但趨勢正在發展。目前，所有業者都在製定降低對華為風險敞口的決策。有些業者的風險敞口更大一些。但這些決策正在製定中，而我們贏得了遠超過我們應得份額的業務。

Your next question comes from Amit Daryanani of Evercore ISI.

你的下一個問題來自 Evercore ISI 的 Amit Daryanani。

I guess the first one, could you just maybe touch on how should we think about the webscale growth in fiscal '21 versus your expectation? I think, overall at 0% to 3% growth. And then very specifically within that segment, I think last one you talked about a new customer win in the webscale side. How is that ramping up? And any way to dimensionalize how that revenue stream could look like in '21?

我想先問第一個問題，您能否談談我們該如何看待2021財年網路規模業務的成長，以及您之前的預期？我認為整體成長率在0%到3%之間。然後，具體到這個領域，我記得您上次提到在網路規模業務方面贏得了一位新客戶。目前進展如何？能否具體分析一下2021年該業務的收入狀況？

Yes. Let me...

是的，讓我…

Gary? We may have lost -- Gary, are you there?

加里？我們可能輸了——加里，你在嗎？

Takes around driving the data center expansion, et cetera, just logistically more than anything else. We expect that more (inaudible)

圍繞資料中心擴建等事宜，主要涉及物流方面。我們預計會有更多（聽不清楚）

We lost you, Gary. you might have to restart your answer, I apologize.

加里，我們沒聽到你的回答。你可能需要重新回答，很抱歉。

I'm sorry.

對不起。

I apologize. We lost you there for the beginning. You may want to restart your answer.

抱歉，一開始我們沒聽懂您的意思。您可能需要重新回答。

Okay. Yes. All right. So if we look at the webscale, it's stock start at the top. We think the webscale market in 2021 will grow in the mid-single digits. And we expect to maintain market share at 50% plus and grow basically in line with the market this year. We've got, as we've talked about, it's largely dominated by 4 main players. And we've now, as we've said, got the fourth player, which we're beginning to roll out, and we are beginning to deploy during the course of this year. It will be second half loaded, good visibility to that, but we'll see that ramp up. And we'll see a pretty good movement across all of the webscale players during '21.

好的。是的。好的。如果我們看一下WebScale市場，它的股票目前處於領先地位。我們認為2021年WebScale市場將實現中等個位數的成長。我們預計將維持50%以上的市場份額，並基本上與今年的市場成長保持一致。正如我們之前提到的，目前市場主要由四家主要廠商主導。現在，正如我們所說，我們迎來了第四家廠商，我們正在開始推廣，並計劃在今年內逐步部署。下半年將開始全面部署，這一點比較明朗，但我們會看到它的規模不斷擴大。我們預計2021年所有WebScale廠商都會有相當不錯的表現。

Perfect. And if I can just follow-up on the pluggables discussion that we're having earlier. How do you -- how would you think about the revenue opportunity on the pluggable side? And then importantly, do you think the gross margin structure there is any different versus what it is for overall Ciena?

好的。我能否再追問一下我們之前討論的可插拔組件的問題？您如何看待可插拔組件的營收機會？更重要的是，您認為這方面的毛利率結構與Ciena整體的毛利率結構有何不同？

I guess I'll take the revenue question. First of all, from a 2021 perspective, we don't see this as being a significant market opportunity, not only for Ciena, I think for anybody. I think just timing-wise, the industry has moved to the right. It won't really be more than a [2020] event. I think specifically, pluggables in the coherent space, I think of in 3 different ways. One is that very specific application around a very short reach, metro/campus CI. And that would be substitutive to some of our to some of our dedicated transport Waveserver business. Think of it as coherent moving India access, which is net new business for all coherent players. That will take some time. That won't be a 2021 event. And then I think of it as just the natural miniaturization of the technology still embodied in the system business.

我想我會回答關於營收的問題。首先，從2021年的角度來看，我們認為這並非一個重要的市場機遇，不僅對Ciena而言如此，我認為對任何公司都是如此。我認為就時機而言，整個產業的發展已經向右傾斜。這不會是比2020年更重大的事件。具體來說，我認為在相干網路領域，可插拔設備可以從三個方面來考慮。首先，它是一種非常具體的應用，例如在城市/校園等短距離範圍內的相干網路。這可以取代我們部分專用的傳輸Waveserver業務。可以把它看作是相干行動印度接入，這對所有相干網路廠商來說都是全新的業務。但這需要一些時間。這不會是2021年就能實現的。其次，我認為這只是系統業務中仍包含的技術自然小型化的結果。

(technical difficulty)

（技術難題）

And that was no different than the other previous generation of technology. Margin-wise, across those 3 things, I don't see a discernible difference in the margins versus the system business. The revenue opportunity on that first application I talked about obviously is smaller because you're not selling the whole system, you're selling (inaudible) the margin recognized would be similar.

這與上一代科技並無不同。就利潤率而言，這三項業務的利潤率與系統業務相比沒有明顯差異。我提到的第一個應用的收入機會顯然較小，因為你賣的不是整個系統，而是（聽不清楚），但其利潤率應該相近。

Your next question comes from Fahad Najam of MKM Partners.

下一個問題來自 MKM Partners 的 Fahad Najam。

I have 2 questions. First, on the OpEx outlook. It seems like a pretty healthy increase. I suspect most of it is in R&D. Does that suggest a -- maybe the step-up in cadence on your part, especially in light of -- if our checks are correct that Acacia is going to likely announce a 1-terabit solution in the first half of '21.

我有兩個問題。首先是關於營運支出前景。看起來增長相當可觀。我懷疑大部分都投入了研發。這是否意味著——或許是你們加快了研發步伐，尤其考慮到——如果我們的了解無誤，Acacia很可能在2021年上半年發布1太比特的解決方案。

Are you seeing an increase in design cadence in the industry overall? And then on the question related to Huawei, if I'm not mistaken, it sounds like a $700 million to $1 billion total revenue opportunity for you. So why not give up a 2- or 3-year outlook as to what your revenue growth would be potentially, given it's such a substantial opportunity for you. Why don't you kind of give us a 3-year outlook on what your revenue trend could be?

您是否觀察到整個產業的設計節奏整體上有所加快？關於華為的問題，如果我沒記錯的話，這聽起來像是您7億到10億美元的總營收機會。既然這是一個如此巨大的機會，為什麼不分享一下未來兩三年的潛在營收成長預期呢？能否提供我們未來三年的營收趨勢預測？

Okay. Thank you, Fahad. On the OpEx situation, the -- just to remind everybody, we went in to 2020 and guided OpEx to be $270 million to $275 million for the average for the quarters for 2020. That's exactly the number that we have posted this year as guide for the year. So this is -- it's not really a step up, generally speaking, but it is a higher number than 20 -- the 2021 number is higher than 2020 because we didn't spend in some areas, including travel, including medical, et cetera, as a result of the pandemic. So generally speaking, this is not a big increase. It's flat to what we expected for 2020. We are stepping up some investments in R&D and not spending in other areas. That mainly has to do with the edge and access portion of our portfolio.

好的，謝謝法哈德。關於營運支出（OpEx）的情況，－提醒大家一下，我們在2020年初預測2020年各季度的平均營運支出為2.7億美元至2.75億美元。這與我們今年發布的年度指導數字完全一致。所以，總的來說，這並沒有顯著增長，但確實高於2020年的數字——2021年的數字高於2020年，是因為受疫情影響，我們在某些​​領域減少了支出，包括差旅、醫療等等。所以總的來說，這並非大幅成長，與我們對2020年的預期基本持平。我們正在加大研發方面的投入，同時減少其他領域的支出。這主要與我們產品組合中的邊緣運算和存取部分有關。

On the Huawei comment, listen, I understand that it's getting a lot of geopolitical attention and a lot of publicity to that. This is not particularly a new dynamic to us. This has been in play for a couple of years now. And it's going to take a while because, first of all, you talk about in Europe, they've got massive amounts of installed base. It's integrated into all of their back office systems. These cat -- it's very expensive for these carriers to make those kinds of wholesale moves, and the operational issues associated with that are very large. So even though many governments, et cetera, would like that to go faster, it's also -- it costs you a lot of money.

關於華為的評論，我知道這件事引起了很多地緣政治關注，也獲得了大量媒體報導。但對我們來說，這並非什麼新鮮事。這種情況已經持續好幾年了。而且這需要一段時間，首先，正如你所說，在歐洲，他們的設備裝機量非常龐大。華為已經整合到他們所有的後台系統中。對於這些業者來說，進行這種大規模的遷移成本非常高昂，而且相關的營運問題也非常複雜。所以，儘管許多政府等等都希望這個過程能夠加快，但這也需要花費大量的資金。

And so you factor all of that in and the reality is, yes, it's a great tailwind and will happen, we think, over a period of time. But not as fast as folks will think, possibly with the exception of India, as I talked about earlier. And overall, your number around the share that they have in Europe and then India, is it $0.5 billion to $1 billion total market, something like that? Yes. But it will be feathered in -- it's already feathered into forecasts for the year and has been for the last couple of years.

所以，把所有這些因素都考慮進去，現實情況是，沒錯，這的確是一股強勁的順風，而且我們認為，隨著時間的推移，它終將到來。但速度不會像人們想像的那麼快，印度或許是個例外，就像我之前提到的。總的來說，你估計他們在歐洲和印度的市佔率大概在5億到10億美元之間，大概是這個數字嗎？是的。但這部分會逐步融入市場——實際上，它已經被逐步納入了今年的預測，而且過去幾年都是如此。

So I don't think it would be appropriate to carve that out, and apart from which having visibility to that degree of granularity 3 years out is certainly challenging. But it is a tailwind. It's a very positive dynamic for us. We are winning business there. We've just won some in India. We've won some business in Europe that we are now deploying. You look at people like Deutsche Telekom, Vodafone Group, BT, those are existing customers that we are expanding with because of this dynamic, and that is happening, but it's feathered into our overall business now.

所以我認為不宜單獨列出這部分內容，而且，要掌握未來三年如此精細的市場動態確實極具挑戰性。但這確實是一個利好因素，對我們來說是一個非常正面的動態。我們正在贏得這方面的業務。我們最近在印度也贏得了一些業務。我們在歐洲也贏得了一些業務，目前正在部署中。看看像德國電信、沃達豐集團、英國電信這樣的公司，這些都是我們現有的客戶，由於這種動態，我們正在與他們拓展業務，這種情況正在發生，但現在它已經融入我們的整體業務中。

Your next question comes from Samik Chatterjee of JPMorgan.

下一個問題來自摩根大通的薩米克·查特吉。

I just wanted to start off with asking you about the edge and the access part of the network, where you're obviously talking about investments. But as some of the discussions around 5G fixed and Nokia being a really large incumbent there, how should we be thinking about the opportunity for share gains over the next few years in that part of the network? And I have a follow-up.

我首先想問一下關於網路邊緣和接入部分的問題，您顯然談到了這方面的投資。但考慮到目前關於5G固定網路的討論，以及諾基亞作為該領域的重要廠商，我們應該如何看待未來幾年在該網路部分提升市場份額的機會？我還有一個後續問題。

Scott, do you want to take it?

史考特，你想拿嗎？

Yes. Yes. So first of all, our edge and access piece, our next-generation metro included in that 5G is one driver there, also the evolution of enterprise business services in general is another driver. I think we've talked in the past around our existing businesses very strong in those areas, wireless backhaul and enterprise services in North America and India. And obviously underdistributed in the rest of the world, partially because historically, us not playing in the IP space. The investments that we're making there is really around a next-generation IP capability with a ground-up IP OS, integrated with our optics, integrated with our multilayer domain controllers. And a series of products optimized for things like 5G, fiber deep and next-generation sort of aggregation networks for converged traffic. All of those things we think is an opportunity that will show up in our metro and our Packet business, and we expect that to grow faster than our aggregate part of the business going forward.

是的。首先，我們的邊緣和接取業務，包括5G在內的下一代城域網，是推動成長的因素之一，企業業務服務的整體發展也是另一個驅動因素。我們之前討論過，我們在這些領域（例如北美和印度的無線回傳和企業服務）的現有業務非常強大。顯然，我們在世界其他地區的業務分佈不足，部分原因是我們過去沒有涉足IP領域。我們目前在這些領域的投資主要集中在下一代IP能力上，包括從零開始建立的IP作業系統，並將其與我們的光纖和多層網域控制器整合。此外，我們也開發了一系列針對5G、光纖到府以及新一代融合流量匯聚網路等場景最佳化的產品。我們認為所有這些都將為我們的城域網路和分組業務帶來機遇，我們預計未來城域網路和分組業務的成長速度將超過我們的匯聚業務。

Now 5G specifically, I think what's going on right now is sort of augmentation on their existing architectures. That will benefit us where we have our wireless backhaul installments today. But our real opportunity longer-term is as they start to look at stand-alone architectures and make architecture decisions that will allow us to expand our addressable market beyond our historical installed base of wireless backhaul.

就 5G 而言，我認為目前的情況是對其現有架構的一種增強。這對我們現有的無線回程網路部署來說是個好消息。但從長遠來看，我們真正的機會在於，當他們開始專注於獨立網路架構並做出相應的架構決策時，我們將能夠拓展目標市場，超越我們以往的無線回程網路部署基礎。

Got it. And if I can follow up with a question for Jim. Jim, just if you give us some color on -- you talked about the investments that are kind of probably going to be elevated for a bit here, but how long is that kind of going to run for? Primarily, because if I think about you said for your 3-year outlook, and you ended the year with 17.6% margin, which is higher than your long-term range. If I think about gross margins moderating a bit, but you also guided to having OpEx leverage through the 3 year, do we end up kind of 3 years out about the long-term range that you provided of 16% to 17%?

明白了。我還有一個問題想問吉姆。吉姆，你能不能詳細解釋一下——你剛才提到一些投資可能會暫時維持在較高水平，但這種情況會持續多久？主要是因為你之前談到了三年展望，而你今年的毛利率達到了17.6%，高於你的長期預期。考慮到毛利率可能會略有回落，但你也表示未來三年營運支出槓桿會得到提升，那麼三年後，我們最終的毛利率是否會接近你之前給出的16%到17%的長期預期呢？

Without giving a specific number, I would say that we would expect operating margin to increase from what we're going to deliver in 2021, if we hit our plan. So yes, we said that we are going to grow OpEx more slowly than revenue will grow in the 2 years beyond 2021. And we did indicate that our gross margins, we think our base rate of gross margins have improved a little bit. So yes, we do expect our operating margin over the next couple of years to increase from what we're going to post in 2021.

雖然無法給出具體數字，但我們可以說，如果我們能夠按計劃完成，預計2021年的營業利潤率將會高於預期。所以，是的，我們之前說過，2021年後的兩年裡，我們的營運支出成長速度將低於收入成長速度。我們也提到，我們認為毛利率（基本毛利率）已經略有提升。因此，我們預計未來幾年的營業利潤率將高於2021年的水準。

Your next question comes from Ryan Koontz of Rosenblatt Securities.

下一個問題來自 Rosenblatt Securities 的 Ryan Koontz。

As you look ahead to the impact from ZR on the DCI segment, assuming you're able to retain share with your incumbent customers there, how should we think about the deflationary price per wavelength there? It seems like pretty disruptive impact to pricing and when we think about that deflating the market there a little bit?

展望零輻射技術對資料中心互連（DCI）領域的影響，假設您能夠保住現有客戶的市場份額，我們該如何看待該領域每波長價格的通貨緊縮？這似乎會對定價產生相當大的顛覆性影響，而且我們考慮到這可能會導致該領域市場價格略微下降，這種想法是否正確？

Yes, Ryan, here's how I think about it. If you drive sort of the typical price erosion curve over the last decade in the optical space, and you think about the timing of ZR and some of the price points that we sort of see in the marketplace, you can easily extrapolate that curve. It's the natural price erosion that we see from technology introduction. So I don't see that being any different than we've had to deal with for years in this industry. And as we sort of demonstrated, you can survive and flourish in that space if you actually lead from a technology innovation and actually control the vertical integration of your supply chain, and that's what we intend to do on ZR as well.

是的，Ryan，我是這麼想的。如果你回顧過去十年光學領域典型的價格下降曲線，再結合ZR的發佈時間和我們在市場上看到的一些價格點，你就能很容易地推斷出這條曲線。這是技術引入帶來的自然價格下降。所以我認為這和我們多年來在這個行業中遇到的情況並沒有什麼不同。正如我們已經證明的那樣，如果你能夠引領技術創新，並掌控供應鏈的垂直整合，你就能在這個領域生存並蓬勃發展，而這正是我們打算在ZR上做的事情。

Okay. Helpful. And just a quick follow-up on Q4. The soft packet number there, how should we think about that in terms of -- that just lumpiness in customer concentration kind of affecting that business? Or is there any kind of secular demand change in packet?

好的，很有幫助。關於第四季度，我還有一個後續問題。軟包資料方面，我們該如何看待這個問題？是客戶集中度的波動影響了業務嗎？還是說軟包需求出現了某種長期變化？

I think it was impacted by the sort of -- some of that business is around at the edge to bring sort of ethernet type services. And I think that was impacted by the challenges in enterprise, SMB and the carrier managed service piece. And then probably a little bit of ebbs and flows. We had a couple of larger customers that built out heavily in the first half of last year, some of it a little bit around sort of COVID planning pull-forwards, but normal ebbs and flows to that. But we expect to have a pretty good year as we go forward now. We've got a lot of the new technology we developed in market. As I said, on some of that Adaptive IP, we've got 7 installations now and scaling. So we actually think that Packet business will do well during '21.

我認為它受到了一些因素的影響——部分業務集中在邊緣運算領域，提供乙太網路類型的服務。我認為這受到了企業、中小企業以及營運商管理服務領域所面臨挑戰的影響。此外，可能還會有一些波動。去年上半年，我們有幾家大型客戶進行了大規模的部署，其中一些與新冠疫情相關的計畫提前實施有關，但這也是正常的波動。不過，我們預計今年會發展得相當不錯。我們開發的許多新技術已經推向市場。正如我所說，在一些自適應IP方面，我們目前已經完成了7個安裝項目，並且還在不斷擴展。因此，我們認為資料包業務在2021年將會表現良好。

And over the next several years. It will grow faster than our base business, we believe.

我們相信，未來幾年，它的成長速度將超過我們的基礎業務。

Your next question comes from Jim Suva of Citi.

你的下一個問題來自花旗銀行的吉姆·蘇瓦。

And I just have one question. When you mentioned in your prepared comments that the carriers are kind of sweating their assets in the useful life and bandwidth, you mentioned that you expect them to come back to spending on the metro and the core. Is there any risk that they continue to spend more on the edge and actually continue to sweat those assets in the metro and core a lot longer? And the reason why I ask is, maybe you have some contracts in place or you have some agreements where you actually have the visibility into it, where it will come back? Or is it just more the hope of continual bandwidth use that you believe is going to come back? Any comments on that, that would be great.

我還有一個問題。您在準備好的評論中提到，營運商目前都在過度消耗資產的使用壽命和頻寬，並表示預計他們會重新加大對城域網路和核心網路的投資。那麼，是否存在他們繼續增加邊緣運算投入，從而導致城域網路和核心網路資產長期處於閒置狀態的風險呢？我這樣問是因為，您是否已經簽訂了一些合約或協議，可以預見他們何時會重新投入？或者您只是寄望於頻寬的持續使用？對此，您有什麼看法嗎？非常感謝。

Yes. That's a good question, Jim. I mean, I think what you did see with the initial traffic flows go to the edge. Obviously, the carriers then focused on just making sure that those access points, mainly our homes, are sufficiently supported, which is what they've kind of been focused on. When we look at our model and our forecast for the year, it takes into account a number of things in terms of what we've got as visibility. Some of it is project plans and engagements with our customers, some of it's orders, it's pipeline, it's RFP activity. It's executive engagement with those customers around what they're planning to do.

是的，吉姆，你問得好。我的意思是，我認為你確實看到了最初的流量都集中在網路邊緣。顯然，營運商隨後將重點放在確保這些接入點（主要是我們的家庭）得到充分支援上，這也是他們一直以來的工作重點。當我們審視我們的模型和年度預測時，它會考慮我們掌握的許多資訊。其中一些資訊包括專案計劃和與客戶的合作，一些資訊包括訂單、銷售管道和招標活動。此外，還包括與客戶高層就他們的計劃進行的溝通。

And obviously, we've got pretty deep and long-term relationships with many of these service -- large service providers. So we have pretty good visibility into that. Now the things that are unknown there are what happens with COVID and the economy at large, the overriding assumption, I think of all of this is that, that begins to ameliorate during the course of the year. And the dynamics around the traffic flows are such that they would be under a lot of pressure to build out their metro and their core. And it's not that they don't want to do that right now. It's not really even a budget issue. It is really about just risk aversion of -- and focus of messing with the network for those kind of upgrades during this kind of time when they can't deploy all of the people and support that they would normally do for those kinds of activities.

顯然，我們與許多大型服務提供者建立了非常深入且長期的合作關係。因此，我們對這些情況相當了解。現在未知的是新冠疫情和整體經濟的走向，我認為所有這一切的首要假設是，這種情況會在今年逐漸好轉。交通流量的變化使得他們面臨巨大的壓力，需要擴大城域網路和核心網路。這並非意味著他們現在不想這樣做，甚至也不是預算問題。這實際上是出於規避風險的考慮——在目前這種情況下，他們無法像往常一樣投入足夠的人力和支援力量來進行網路升級。

So it's really a combination of all of those elements and the visibility that we have that give us some confidence that, as Jim said, if we're right about that, we will need to see an uptick in orders as we go through in Q2. And that will be a big test of that assumption. But based on what we see right now, that looks like a pretty good assumption. We always have a stronger second half than first. It's just going to be more accentuated, we believe, this year.

所以，正是所有這些因素以及我們目前掌握的信息，讓我們有信心，正如吉姆所說，如果我們的判斷正確，那麼第二季度訂單量將會上升。這將是對這一假設的重大考驗。但就我們目前所見，這似乎是個相當合理的假設。我們歷來下半年業績都強於上半年。我們相信，今年的這種趨勢會更加明顯。

Thanks, everyone, for joining us this morning. We appreciate your time. We look forward to following up with everybody today and over the next few days. or seeing everyone well, at least, remotely over the next few weeks, and happy holidays, Happy New Year, everyone.

感謝各位今天上午的參與。我們非常感謝你們抽出時間。我們期待今天以及接下來的幾天與大家保持聯繫，或至少在接下來的幾週內透過遠端與大家見面。祝大家節日快樂，新年快樂！

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.

女士們、先生們，今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝各位的參與。現在可以掛斷電話了。