Chesapeake Energy Corp (CHK) 2023 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, and welcome to the Chesapeake Energy Second Quarter 2023 Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) Note this event is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Chris Ayres. Please go ahead.

早上好，歡迎參加切薩皮克能源 2023 年第二季度電話會議。 （操作員說明）請注意，正在記錄此事件。我現在想把會議交給克里斯·艾爾斯。請繼續。

Thank you, Marley. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining our call today to discuss Chesapeake's second quarter 2023 financial and operating results. Hopefully, you've had a chance to review our press release and the updated investor presentation that we posted to our website yesterday.

謝謝你，馬利。大家早上好，感謝您今天加入我們的電話會議，討論切薩皮克 2023 年第二季度的財務和運營業績。希望您有機會閱讀我們昨天在網站上發布的新聞稿和更新的投資者演示文稿。

During this morning's call, we will be making forward-looking statements, which consist of statements that cannot be confirmed by reference to existing information, including statements regarding our beliefs, goals, expectations, forecasts, projections and future performance and the assumptions underlying such statements. Please note there are a number of factors that will cause actual results to differ materially from our forward-looking statements, including factors identified and discussed in our press release yesterday and other SEC filings. Please recognize that except as required by applicable law, we undertake no duty to update any forward-looking statements, and you should not place any undue reliance on such statements. We may also refer to certain non-GAAP financial measures, which help facilitate comparisons across periods with peers. For any non-GAAP measure we use a reconciliation to the nearest corresponding GAAP measure and can be found on our website.

在今天上午的電話會議中，我們將做出前瞻性陳述，其中包括無法通過參考現有信息確認的陳述，包括有關我們的信念、目標、期望、預測、預測和未來業績的陳述以及此類陳述背後的假設。請注意，有許多因素會導致實際結果與我們的前瞻性陳述存在重大差異，包括我們昨天的新聞稿和其他 SEC 文件中確定和討論的因素。請注意，除非適用法律要求，否則我們不承擔更新任何前瞻性陳述的義務，並且您不應過度依賴此類陳述。我們還可能會參考某些非公認會計準則財務指標，這有助於促進與同行的跨時期比較。對於任何非 GAAP 衡量標準，我們都會使用最接近的對應 GAAP 衡量標準的調節表，可以在我們的網站上找到。

With me today on the call are Nick Dell'Osso, Mohit Singh and Josh Viets. Nick will give a brief overview of our results, and then we will open up the teleconference to Q&A. So with that, thank you again and now turn the teleconference over to Nick.

今天與我一起參加電話會議的有尼克·戴爾奧索 (Nick Dell'Osso)、莫希特·辛格 (Mohit Singh) 和喬什·維茨 (Josh Viets)。尼克將簡要概述我們的結果，然後我們將開始電話會議進行問答。因此，再次感謝您，現在將電話會議交給尼克。

Good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining our call. I'll give a quick highlight of some recent accomplishments, and then we'll jump to Q&A. We had an outstanding operating results this quarter, and we continue to execute on our strategy and deliver sustainable value to shareholders through cycles. Our performance at the field level remains strong, and I'm pleased that our team continues to find innovative ways to enhance our basin-leading operating performance. We often get asked if the industry has run all of the efficiency opportunities out of the equation. We've highlighted some things today that I think show we have several innings to go.

大家，早安。感謝您加入我們的通話。我將快速重點介紹一些最近取得的成就，然後我們將跳轉到問答環節。本季度我們取得了出色的經營業績，我們將繼續執行我們的戰略，並在整個週期內為股東提供可持續的價值。我們在現場的表現仍然強勁，我很高興我們的團隊繼續尋找創新方法來提高我們流域領先的運營績效。我們經常被問到該行業是否已經排除了所有提高效率的機會。今天我們強調了一些事情，我認為這些事情表明我們還有幾局比賽要做。

To start, we rapidly improved our drilling operations this year behind a combination of data analytics, machine learning, the high grading of our rig fleet and equipment. These advancements allowed us to drill 3 of the 5 fastest Marcellus wells in our history during the second quarter. This included a team best 10,000-foot lateral, which reached a total depth of 17,000 feet in under 8 days. We saw equally strong results on the completion side as well. We deployed new equipment and technologies to yield recent company records in both the Marcellus and Haynesville leading to a greater than 20% increase in efficiencies relative to previous zipper frac operations.

首先，我們今年通過數據分析、機器學習、鑽機隊和設備的高等級相結合，迅速改善了我們的鑽井作業。這些進步使我們能夠在第二季度鑽探歷史上速度最快的 5 口 Marcellus 井中的 3 口。其中包括團隊最好的 10,000 英尺橫向航行，在 8 天內達到了 17,000 英尺的總深度。我們在完成方面也看到了同樣強勁的結果。我們部署了新的設備和技術，在 Marcellus 和 Haynesville 創造了最新的公司記錄，與之前的拉鍊壓裂作業相比，效率提高了 20% 以上。

In addition to our strong drilling and completion performance, the team continues to push the boundary of our development strategy. Our hybrid well design in the Marcellus combined stranded lower Marcellus acreage with accretive Upper Marcellus footage into a single extended wellbore, eliminating the need for multiple vertical sections and reducing surface impact. The design yields a much more efficient capital spend and greater than $3 million incremental NPV per well. I'm also pleased to see extended laterals in the Upper Marcellus deliver similar per well productivity to the prolific lower while decreasing our drilling cost per foot. Overall, across our entire Marcellus program, our average lateral length in the basin has increased by 70% over the last 5 years.

除了我們強大的鑽井和完井業績外，該團隊還不斷突破我們發展戰略的界限。我們在 Marcellus 的混合井設計將擱淺的下 Marcellus 面積與增生的上 Marcellus 進尺結合到一個擴展井筒中，消除了對多個垂直部分的需要，並減少了地面影響。該設計可實現更高效的資本支出和每口井超過 300 萬美元的增量 NPV。我還很高興地看到上馬塞勒斯延伸的支管提供了與多產的下井相似的單井生產率，同時降低了每英尺的鑽井成本。總體而言，在我們的整個馬塞勒斯計劃中，過去 5 年我們盆地的平均橫向長度增加了 70%。

Moving to the Haynesville. Our effort to optimize our acreage position through acreage trades and growth leasing has converted nearly 10 5,000-foot lateral locations to 10,000 feet. Resulting in an incremental NPV uplift of between $3 million to $6 million per location. Combination of all of our leasing efforts has increased our working interest on near-term projects by approximately 4%. Our ongoing effort to debottleneck our midstream systems in the Haynesville is also paying dividends through lower line pressures and higher production. And we have recognized a 70% increase to offload capacity over the last year through expansions and additional offloads. As we continue to optimize our operations in the Haynesville, we're also importantly progressing with our path to be LNG ready. Our recent Lake Charles agreement -- our recent agreement with Lake Charles for liquefaction advances our previously announced agreement with Gunvor to deliver gas for LNG on a JKM linked price exposure.

搬到海恩斯維爾。我們通過面積交易和增長租賃來優化我們的面積位置，已將近 10 個 5,000 英尺的橫向位置轉變為 10,000 英尺。從而使每個地點的淨現值 (NPV) 增加 300 萬至 600 萬美元。我們所有的租賃工作相結合，使我們對近期項目的工作興趣增加了約 4%。我們持續努力消除海恩斯維爾中游系統的瓶頸，也通過降低生產線壓力和提高產量獲得了回報。我們發現，通過擴建和額外卸載，去年卸載能力增加了 70%。隨著我們繼續優化海恩斯維爾的運營，我們也在液化天然氣準備方面取得了重要進展。我們最近與查爾斯湖協議——我們最近與查爾斯湖液化協議推進了我們之前宣布的與貢沃爾協議，以 JKM 相關價格風險提供液化天然氣天然氣。

In addition to the impactful innovations, I'm really pleased we can lean on our financial strength this year and allocate capital in a prudent and value-oriented way for shareholders, given the low prices in the current market. This flexibility is a competitive advantage and enables us to focus on smarter decisions for value creation through cycles. In today's market, that means voluntarily reducing activity levels and deferring TILs in production in periods of stronger pricing. While our second quarter production reached the high end of our quarterly guidance at approximately 3.7 Bcfe per day, Our second half 2023 activity will be approximately 1/3 lower than our first half as measured by rig spuds, completions and CapEx. As we reduce our spend on development activities, we continue to buy back shares and have increased our base dividend. In addition to our return program, we are using our strong position to strategically lease acreage. Year-to-date, we have added approximately 10,000 acres in our Marcellus and Haynesville footprint at an average cost of $2,400 per acre and expect more opportunities to add valuable acreage in the second half of the year focused on improving and adding to our inventory length. We're doing all of this as we continue on our path to reaching an investment-grade credit rating. Today, our net debt to total cap is about 10%, and we received 2 recent upgrades from our credit rating agencies.

除了有影響力的創新之外，我真的很高興我們今年可以依靠我們的財務實力，以審慎和以價值為導向的方式為股東分配資本，考慮到當前市場的低價。這種靈活性是一種競爭優勢，使我們能夠專注於更明智的決策，從而在整個週期內創造價值。在當今市場上，這意味著在價格走強時期自願降低活動水平並推遲生產中的 TIL。雖然我們第二季度的產量達到了季度指導的上限，約為每天 3.7 Bcfe，但根據鑽機開工、完井和資本支出衡量，我們 2023 年下半年的活動將比上半年低約 1/3。隨著我們減少開發活動支出，我們繼續回購股票並增加了基本股息。除了我們的回報計劃外，我們還利用我們的優勢地位戰略性地租賃土地。今年迄今為止，我們在馬塞勒斯和海恩斯維爾的足跡中增加了約10,000 英畝，平均成本為每英畝2,400 美元，預計下半年將有更多機會增加寶貴的面積，重點是改善和增加我們的庫存長度。我們正在做這一切，以繼續實現投資級信用評級。如今，我們的淨債務佔總上限的比例約為 10%，並且我們的信用評級機構最近對我們進行了兩次升級。

We expect that our balance sheet will be further strengthened through the completion of our Eagle Ford exit, which continues to progress. Our capital allocation strategy prioritizes shareholder returns and has resulted in more than $500 million being returned to shareholders so far this year, while gas prices have fallen significantly. Our approach includes a stable and growing base dividend, which has returned $150 million year-to-date in which we raised 4.5% this quarter. Our procyclical variable dividend, which has returned $185 million year-to-date, and our countercyclical buyback program, which has returned $185 million in share repurchases, including $125 million during the second quarter.

我們預計，通過完成鷹福特退出，我們的資產負債表將得到進一步加強，該退出仍在繼續進行。我們的資本配置策略優先考慮股東回報，今年迄今已向股東返還超過 5 億美元，而天然氣價格卻大幅下跌。我們的方法包括穩定且不斷增長的基本股息，今年迄今已回報 1.5 億美元，本季度我們提高了 4.5%。我們的順週期可變股息，今年迄今已返還 1.85 億美元，而我們的反週期回購計劃，已返還 1.85 億美元的股票回購，其中包括第二季度的 1.25 億美元。

We remain the only large-cap gas company consistently paying a dividend and repurchasing shares in today's market. Turning our attention to the rest of the year, our approach will not waiver. The underlying strength of our company allows us to remain patient and prudent and that's exactly what we will be. We'll continue to make decisions focused on long-term value, which means we will execute on our strategic pillars, maintain our capital discipline and further adjust activity should levels further adjust activity levels should conditions warrant. And lastly, we'll remain steadfast in our commitment to maximizing value for shareholders. Pleased to address your questions. And so operator, if you'll open the line.

我們仍然是當今市場上唯一一家持續支付股息並回購股票的大型天然氣公司。將我們的注意力轉向今年剩餘時間，我們的方針不會放棄。我們公司的潛在實力使我們能夠保持耐心和謹慎，而這正是我們將要做的。我們將繼續做出注重長期價值的決策，這意味著我們將執行我們的戰略支柱，維持我們的資本紀律，並在條件允許的情況下進一步調整活動水平。最後，我們將堅定不移地致力於為股東實現價值最大化。很高興解答您的問題。那麼接線員，如果你願意打開線路的話。

We will now begin the question-and-answer session. (Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from Umang Choudhary from Goldman Sachs.

我們現在開始問答環節。 （操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自高盛的 Umang Choudhary。

My first question is really a two-pronged question. First, would love your thoughts around the gas macro. And two, you have talked about contracyclical repurchase risk management through hedging and also maintaining the optionality of a fortress balance sheet, given the volatility of the underlying commodity. How does the macro influence your thoughts around the cadence of share purchase and the extent of hedging?

我的第一個問題實際上是一個兩方面的問題。首先，希望了解您對天然氣宏觀方面的想法。第二，考慮到基礎商品的波動性，您談到了通過對沖進行反週期回購風險管理，並保持堡壘資產負債表的選擇性。宏觀經濟如何影響您對股票購買節奏和對沖程度的看法？

Sure. Those are great questions. I'll start. So First, from a macro perspective, the supply demand has been pretty challenged this year. We've seen the industry respond. We think pretty well through cutting activity. We cut activity. We announced cuts activity early in the year. Those cuts are really showing up now. We deferred TILs even earlier than the activity cuts showed up. So that pulled some gas off or smoothed it out in the year, and we think that's been helpful. We certainly think it's been helpful to our own cash flow profile. We'll continue to make those kinds of decisions as we approach '24.

當然。這些都是很好的問題。我開始吧。首先，從宏觀來看，今年供給需求受到了很大的挑戰。我們已經看到業界的反應。我們通過削減活動來思考得很好。我們減少了活動。我們在今年年初宣布削減活動。這些削減現在確實顯現出來了。我們甚至在活動削減出現之前就推遲了 TIL。因此，這在這一年中減少了一些汽油或使其平穩，我們認為這很有幫助。我們當然認為這對我們自己的現金流狀況有幫助。隨著“24”的臨近，我們將繼續做出此類決定。

We think that the market is poised for a recovery from a supply-demand perspective as we have cut through activity levels and we have growing demand in the form of LNG capacity coming online. What we're not great at doing, of course, individually or as an industry is predicting the exact timing of that. So we'll let the market show us. We don't expect to be way out in front of a move like that, and we'll look for some really tangible signs that things are improving before we bring activity back. And that's really what I'm getting to when I talk about our leaning on our financial strength to make those kinds of decisions. I think they're prudent and smart decisions, and I think you have to have a lot of financial strength to be able to ride through cycles and continue to make prudent decisions without leaning in too hard at times when there's great uncertainty. We just don't have to do that. So we feel good about that.

我們認為，從供需角度來看，市場已做好復甦的準備，因為我們已經削減了活動水平，並且液化天然氣產能的上線需求不斷增長。當然，無論是個人還是整個行業，我們都不擅長預測這一事件的確切時間。所以我們會讓市場告訴我們。我們預計不會在這樣的舉措面前走得太遠，在恢復活動之前，我們會尋找一些真正明顯的跡象表明情況正在改善。當我談論我們依靠我們的財務實力來做出此類決定時，這確實是我要表達的意思。我認為它們是審慎而明智的決定，而且我認為你必須擁有足夠的財務實力才能度過週期並繼續做出審慎的決策，而不會在存在很大不確定性的時候過於堅定地做出決定。我們只是不必這樣做。所以我們對此感覺良好。

From a hedging perspective, we've approach hedging with a very methodical view around how to add hedges looking out on a rolling 8-quarter basis. We're going to continue to do exactly that. That has served us well. It offers a really nice offset to our cash flows this year. One of the things that you'll see, of course, is that we have a pretty sizable hedge gain through the rest of the year. That really helps to offset how we think about these changes in activity levels and allow us to smooth them out in a way that is -- it reduces the friction cost of those changes in activity.

從對沖的角度來看，我們以非常有條理的觀點來對待對沖，圍繞如何在滾動的 8 個季度的基礎上添加對沖。我們將繼續這樣做。這對我們很有幫助。它為我們今年的現金流提供了非常好的抵消。當然，您會看到的一件事是，我們在今年剩餘時間內獲得了相當大的對沖收益。這確實有助於抵消我們對活動水平變化的看法，並允許我們以某種方式平滑它們——它減少了這些活動變化的摩擦成本。

One of the other things I'd point out is that you've seen our differentials really get challenged this year, and it's been pretty tough, particularly in the Northeast. But we have a lot of basis hedges as well. So it's not just index hedging, it's basis hedges. And those basis hedges are serving us well as an offset to those differentials. So they show up in our realized hedging and lines on the income statement that there are basis hedges embedded in there in addition to NYMEX.

我要指出的另一件事是，你已經看到我們的差異化今年確實受到了挑戰，而且非常艱難，特別是在東北部。但我們也有很多基差對沖。因此，這不僅僅是指數對沖，也是基差對沖。這些基差對沖對我們很有幫助，可以抵消這些差異。因此，它們出現在我們已實現的對沖和損益表中，除了 NYMEX 之外，還嵌入了基差對沖。

And then lastly, how we think about the buyback cadence, certainly, the macro plays a role in that. We announced our buyback, the increase to our buyback, I guess, about a year ago, and we're progressing really well with that. We have $725 million remaining. We have quite a lot of cash and we expect to continue to progress against that buyback. We're going to look for opportunities to accelerate that buyback into the second half of the year. And ultimately, we'll finish it when the conditions warrant. But we feel really good about having the flexibility to deploy that cash prudently and carry out our buyback program as we think maximizes value for shareholders over time.

最後，我們如何看待回購節奏，當然，宏觀因素在其中發揮了作用。我想，大約一年前，我們宣布了回購，增加了回購，我們在這方面進展非常順利。我們還剩下 7.25 億美元。我們擁有大量現金，我們預計回購將繼續取得進展。我們將尋找機會在今年下半年加速回購。最終，我們將在條件允許時完成它。但我們對能夠靈活地謹慎部署現金並執行我們的回購計劃感到非常高興，因為我們認為隨著時間的推移，可以為股東實現價值最大化。

Very helpful response. If I can just add one more in. A lot of interesting things on the operations side of the equation. On Slide 9, you've talked about the hybrid well design in Appalachia, combining the lower Marcellus and Upper Marcellus in a single wellbore. Would love your thoughts around the design, your confidence in execution? And how much of the program is it today? And what do you expect going forward?

非常有幫助的回應。如果我可以再添加一個的話。在等式的操作方面有很多有趣的事情。在幻燈片 9 中，您討論了阿巴拉契亞的混合井設計，將下馬塞勒斯和上馬塞勒斯組合在一個井眼中。喜歡您對設計的想法以及對執行的信心嗎？今天的節目內容有多少？您對未來有何期望？

Umang. So to date, we've executed 4 of these. And so I would say our confidence in our ability to execute is quite high. I think we've proven through the years as a company, our ability to really be innovative with complex well designs. The hybrid well design is an example of that. in South Texas, we've done U-turn wells, we've done W-shaped wells. And so I think our technical and operational teams have really proven that we have the ability to be innovative and capture and create incremental value from these assets that we own. We will execute about 5 more of these as we work through the back half of this year. As we've stated, we have around 50 yet to execute in the program. we're constantly kind of critiquing our acreage position, the remaining inventory and looking at all opportunities to enhance value from the assets. So we're pretty excited about what we've done, and we're highly confident in our ability to execute the hybrid well design that we presented to here today.

烏芒。到目前為止，我們已經執行了其中 4 個。所以我想說，我們對自己的執行能力充滿信心。我認為，作為一家公司，多年來我們已經證明了我們通過複雜的油井設計進行真正創新的能力。混合井設計就是一個例子。在德克薩斯州南部，我們已經完成了 U 型轉彎井，我們已經完成了 W 形井。因此，我認為我們的技術和運營團隊確實證明了我們有能力創新，有能力從我們擁有的這些資產中獲取和創造增量價值。今年下半年，我們將再執行大約 5 個此類項目。正如我們所說，程序中還有大約 50 個尚未執行。我們不斷地批評我們的面積狀況、剩餘庫存，並尋找一切提高資產價值的機會。因此，我們對我們所做的事情感到非常興奮，並且我們對執行我們今天在這裡展示的混合井設計的能力充滿信心。

So Umang, if I could just add to that. I mean, if you think about what we talked about both there with the hybrid well design as well as the leasing and trading program in the Haynesville, it's all around finding more opportunities for longer wells. We know that longer laterals add value to a development program. And as you look back at some of the early developed areas of the play, there's all kinds of acreage that stranded in there with short laterals remaining. And this is a way for us to go back and add life to some of the really great central core acreage across these plays by adding in longer later opportunities that otherwise would have been shorter laterals. So this is a really great development for us, something that we'll continue to think about ways to bring some of these smaller lateral opportunities back to the front of the development program. by creating opportunities to drill an ultimately long lateral well.

那麼烏芒，如果我可以補充一下的話。我的意思是，如果你想想我們在那裡談論的混合井設計以及海恩斯維爾的租賃和交易計劃，一切都是為了尋找更多更長井的機會。我們知道，較長的支線可以增加開發計劃的價值。當你回顧該劇的一些早期開發區域時，會發現各種各樣的土地都滯留在其中，只剩下很短的支線。這是我們回過頭來為這些區域中一些真正偉大的中央核心區域增添活力的一種方式，通過添加更長的後期機會，否則這些機會本來會更短。因此，這對我們來說是一個非常偉大的發展，我們將繼續思考如何將一些較小的橫向機會帶回到發展計劃的前面。通過創造鑽探最終長側井的機會。

Great. Makes a lot of sense. Thank you so much. .

偉大的。很有道理。太感謝了。 。

And our next question comes from Josh Silverstein from UBS. Please. go ahead.

我們的下一個問題來自瑞銀集團的喬什·西爾弗斯坦。請。前進。

Nick, you mentioned the remaining Eagle Ford package is still ongoing with the sale process. Just give an update there? Is this something that you're just waiting for a higher natural gas price environment to execute on? And then as we're thinking about shareholder return opportunities here with the balance sheet where it is right now, if this is divested, do all those proceeds go towards the buyback then?

尼克，您提到剩餘的伊格爾福特套餐仍在銷售過程中。只是在那裡提供更新嗎？您是否只是在等待更高的天然氣價格環境來執行此操作？然後，當我們考慮股東回報機會以及目前的資產負債表時，如果剝離，所有這些收益都會用於回購嗎？

Josh, we've talked all along about how we're leaning with incremental return programs from the sale towards buybacks. So I think you can expect that, that's how we will talk about it once we're complete with that transaction. It is an ongoing process. It's been an interesting process and that we continue to have multiple parties seeking to get to the finish line here. It's been a challenging year to sell assets. The financing markets have not been super strong. But I think we're making good progress and hope to get something done. It's front of mind for us, obviously.

喬什，我們一直在談論我們如何傾向於從銷售到回購的增量回報計劃。所以我想你可以預料到，一旦我們完成交易，我們將如何談論它。這是一個持續的過程。這是一個有趣的過程，我們繼續有多方尋求到達終點線。對於出售資產來說，今年是充滿挑戰的一年。融資市場並不是非常強勁。但我認為我們正在取得良好進展，並希望能有所作為。顯然，這是我們的首要任務。

And then in the Haynesville, you've come from 7 rigs to 5 rigs. Can you talk about how you're managing the declines with the lower rig count? And what kind of optionality or flexibility you're leaving in for 2024 if prices don't stay around the 350 level?

然後在海恩斯維爾，您的鑽機數量從 7 台增加到 5 台。您能談談您是如何應對鑽機數量減少的情況的嗎？如果價格沒有保持在 350 美元左右的水平，那麼 2024 年你還會有什麼樣的選擇或靈活性呢？

Yes. And so we're -- this is Josh. So we're right in the middle of dropping rigs. In fact, we'll go from 6 to 5 rigs this week. And so we are being very thoughtful about our productive capacity. We think it's important to maintain that just simply to avoid any inefficiencies that will be created as we attempt to rebound into a more constructive commodity price environment. We do think flexibility absolutely matters. And I think that's what we're going to maintain as we get into the end of this year. .

是的。所以我們——這是喬什。所以我們正處於掉落裝備的中間。事實上，本週我們將使用 6 台鑽機到 5 台。因此，我們非常重視我們的生產能力。我們認為保持這一點很重要，只是為了避免在我們試圖反彈到更具建設性的大宗商品價格環境時造成任何效率低下。我們確實認為靈活性絕對重要。我認為，到今年年底，我們將繼續保持這一點。 。

Previously, when we presented our 5-year outlook, we presented a case that indicated a sixth rig coming back in January. I would just say that's something that we'll continue to monitor. And really, I think we're going to allow the market to signal that gas supply is needed. And so we don't really feel any pressure to get out and front run that. We're happy for the market conditions to improve and really pull us back into it. We think the key for us today is just being patient, being flexible, which is ultimately what our assets and our strong balance sheet really affords us to do.

此前，當我們提出 5 年展望時，我們提出了一個案例，表明第六台鑽機將於 1 月份回歸。我只想說這是我們將繼續監控的事情。事實上，我認為我們將讓市場發出需要天然氣供應的信號。因此，我們並沒有真正感受到任何退出並領先的壓力。我們很高興市場狀況有所改善，並真正把我們拉回了市場。我們認為，今天對我們來說關鍵是保持耐心和靈活性，這最終是我們的資產和強大的資產負債表真正讓我們能夠做到的。

And we have a question now from Doug Leggate from Bank of America. Doug, please go ahead.

現在美國銀行的 Doug Leggate 向我們提出了一個問題。道格，請繼續。

Thank you Nick or Josh, I don't know which one of you wants to take this, but I have a slightly different micro question. One of the pushbacks we get on our sort of new dynamics of U.S. gas markets is the DUC overhang in the Haynesville. But when we look at the data, whether it be in Rystad in Baris, EIA, whatever, there seems to be a very big brince between what the industry seems to think and what we're hearing from the company. So I wonder what -- if you could tell us what your DUC backlog looks like and maybe convert it with what you're seeing the agencies are reporting your DUC backlog looks like?

謝謝尼克或喬希，我不知道你們中的哪一個想接受這個，但我有一個稍微不同的微觀問題。我們在美國天然氣市場的新動態中遇到的阻力之一是海恩斯維爾的 DUC 懸而未決。但當我們查看數據時，無論是巴里斯的 Rystad、EIA 還是其他數據，行業的想法與我們從公司聽到的信息之間似乎存在很大的差異。所以我想知道 - 您是否可以告訴我們您的 DUC 積壓工作是什麼樣子，並可能將其轉換為您所看到的機構報告的 DUC 積壓工作情況？

Yes, this is Josh. We would agree there is a lot of noise in the public data on DUCs. It's a relatively complex metric to track accurately. But I think we would generally align and that this metric is most commonly overstated. And of course, the implication for that is it would indicate that if you were to believe the current numbers of something over 700 in Haynesville that there's a supply overhang that could potentially impact any type of recovery. So I think there's several reasons for that, which may be fall into noncore zones being included in that, which really can't contribute you have maybe mismatches on how many units of production a rig or a frac crew is creating.

是的，這是喬什。我們同意 DUC 的公共數據中存在很多噪音。準確跟踪這是一個相對複雜的指標。但我認為我們通常會保持一致，而且這個指標通常被誇大了。當然，這意味著，如果你相信海恩斯維爾目前的數量超過 700 人，那麼供應過剩可能會影響任何類型的複蘇。因此，我認為造成這種情況的原因有幾個，可能屬於其中包含的非核心區域，這實際上無法幫助您在鑽機或壓裂人員正在創建的生產單位數量上可能存在不匹配。

And then also, you just have a case of abandoned wells that simply don't get taken out of that, that will do to maybe mechanical reasons will never be completed. So I think the best data we have is really looking at our own data set. If we were to extract from public sources, what they see our DUC inventory in the Haynesville beam, it would put us at 45%. What we see is the majority of these roughly 2/3 are actually sitting on pads that we're actively drilling. And so therefore, they're not considered true DUCs in any sense of the word. And so that leaves us with about 15% what we would consider to be true DUCs. If you consider about 3 wells per pad, that leaves you with about 5 pads. And if you run in 2 frac crews, that would put you into a pretty normal working inventory. So again, the implication of this, you have roughly maybe 2/3 overstated. And ultimately, where that would maybe put the Haynesville is probably something closer to 150 to 200 DUCs as opposed to the 700 that stated and other publishers. So again, that's just using our internal data to kind of back into maybe where the industry sits as a whole.

而且，你只是有一個廢棄的井的情況，根本沒有被取出來，這可能會導致機械原因永遠無法完成。所以我認為我們擁有的最好的數據實際上是我們自己的數據集。如果我們從公共來源中提取，他們在海恩斯維爾光束中看到的 DUC 庫存，我們的利用率將達到 45%。我們看到的是，其中大約 2/3 的大部分實際上位於我們正在積極鑽探的墊片上。因此，從任何意義上來說，它們都不被視為真正的 DUC。因此，我們認為真正的 DUC 大約為 15%。如果您考慮每個墊大約 3 個孔，則大約剩下 5 個墊。如果您有 2 名壓裂人員，那麼您的工作庫存就會非常正常。再說一次，這意味著你大約誇大了 2/3。最終，Haynesville 可能會擁有接近 150 到 200 個 DUC，而不是其他出版商所說的 700 個。再說一次，這只是利用我們的內部數據來了解整個行業的情況。

That's really helpful color, Josh. Is the kind of way I was going with that, but I wanted to just sense check it. My follow-up is hopefully a simple question. My understanding is you're largely done with activity now in the Eagle Ford. So to the extent you can looking at your cadence of your capital, which I realize is a little under where you would normally be. It looks to us that your sustaining capital has come down quite a bit. So portfolio go forward ex Eagle Ford, what would you say that current capital outlook and main capital outlook looks for maybe '24 and beyond there.

這真是有用的顏色，喬什。這就是我的做法，但我只是想檢查一下。我的後續行動希望是一個簡單的問題。我的理解是，現在鷹灘的活動已經基本結束了。因此，在某種程度上，你可以看看你的資本節奏，我意識到這有點低於你通常的水平。在我們看來，你們的維持資本已經下降了不少。因此，前鷹福特的投資組合向前發展，您認為當前的資本前景和主要資本前景可能會在 24 年及以後出現。

Yes. Doug, I'll start with this, and Josh may have something to add. But the way we think about sustaining capital is really about what development profile it takes to maintain production. And that really hasn't changed for us in both the Marcellus and the Haynesville. It's around 5 rigs in the Marcellus and around 6 rigs in Haynesville. And obviously, at different times, you can you can either slow that down or accelerate that by either adding or subtracting a frac crew. And so there's a ratio of rigs to frac crews that equate to an exact maintenance level there.

是的。道格，我將從這個開始，喬什可能有一些補充。但我們考慮維持資本的方式實際上是考慮維持生產所需的發展狀況。對於我們馬塞勒斯酒店和海恩斯維爾酒店來說，這一點確實沒有改變。馬塞勒斯 (Marcellus) 約有 5 台鑽機，海恩斯維爾 (Haynesville) 約有 6 台鑽機。顯然，在不同的時間，你可以通過增加或減少壓裂人員來減慢或加速這一速度。因此，鑽井平台與壓裂人員的比例相當於那裡的確切維護水平。

But right now, we're a little below that in that design. And so as we go into next year and we see the clear signals of the market recovery and we the market looking for more supply, then we'll go back to that level and always maintain the ability to increase above that for true growth should the market need the volumes. So when you think about modeling us, think about 5 rigs in the Marcellus, 6 rigs in Haynesville, that's going to get you a pretty good maintenance capital level for us.

但現在，我們的設計略低於這個水平。因此，當我們進入明年時，我們會看到市場復甦的明確信號，並且我們市場正在尋求更多供應，然後我們將回到該水平，並始終保持高於該水平的能力，以實現真正的增長，如果市場需要數量。因此，當您考慮為我們建模時，請考慮 Marcellus 的 5 台鑽機、Haynesville 的 6 台鑽機，這將為我們帶來相當不錯的維護資本水平。

Our next question comes from Matt Portillo from TPH. Matt, please go ahead.

我們的下一個問題來自 TPH 的 Matt Portillo。馬特，請繼續。

Maybe just to start off with a question for Josh. On the Haynesville, looks like the asset has been outperforming expectations year-to-date. I know you talked a bit about some of the infrastructure expansion occurred. Could you just talk about some of the operational tail you've seen at the field level. And do you expect additional gains going forward?

也許只是先問喬希一個問題。在海恩斯維爾，看起來該資產今年迄今為止的表現超出了預期。我知道您談到了一些基礎設施的擴展。您能否談談您在現場層面看到的一些運營尾部？您預計未來會有更多收益嗎？

Yes. We have seen very strong performance out of our Haynesville asset through the first half of the year, and it is largely related to infrastructure. I would just maybe first comment as far as new wells, everything there looks relatively in line with expectations. And so the outperformance is largely coming from the base. And a large part of that is from our 2022 TILs. And one of the things we worked very hard at last year was introducing interconnects between adjacent gathering systems. And so what that has allowed us to do is any time we see a pressure response as in a midstream upset, potentially adding pressure into system that's alarming our operations center. And then we quickly have the ability to work with our marketing teams to redirect flow. And what that translates to is less downtime associated midstream outages. And that's ultimately what's allowed us to outproduce relative to our own forecast. And really, it's just simply demonstrating the strength of our underlying asset there in the Haynesville.

是的。今年上半年，我們看到海恩斯維爾資產的表現非常強勁，這在很大程度上與基礎設施有關。我可能首先對新井發表評論，那裡的一切看起來都相對符合預期。因此，優異的表現很大程度上來自於基礎。其中很大一部分來自我們的 2022 年 TIL。去年我們非常努力的事情之一就是在相鄰的收集系統之間引入互連。因此，這使我們能夠做的是，每當我們看到壓力響應（如中流擾動）時，可能會增加系統壓力，從而對我們的運營中心發出警報。然後我們很快就有能力與我們的營銷團隊合作來重定向流量。這意味著與中游中斷相關的停機時間更少。這最終使我們的產量超出了我們自己的預測。事實上，這只是簡單地展示了我們在海恩斯維爾的基礎資產的實力。

Great. And then a follow-up question. I know you guys have been quite active on the LNG front. You're making some great progress there. Just curious how those negotiations have evolved and maybe how potentially reaching investment grade going forward could potentially improve your position on the LNG side of things.

偉大的。然後是後續問題。我知道你們在液化天然氣領域一直非常活躍。你在那裡取得了一些巨大的進步。只是好奇這些談判是如何演變的，也許未來達到投資級別可能會如何改善您在液化天然氣方面的地位。

Yes, Matt. This is Mohit. I'll take that. We are very pleased with where we stand today. So if you recall, in March, we announced our heads of agreement with Gunvor. So that was going to be the buyer of LNG. And then since then, we've been working jointly with Gunvor to high-grade the facilities that we would liquefy through. And just -- it's (inaudible) here, the methodology we used to high grade has 5 different dimensions. One is accessibility, which is -- which means do we have a way of transporting our gas from the field to that LNG facility.

是的，馬特。這是莫希特。我會接受的。我們對今天的處境感到非常滿意。所以，如果你還記得的話，在三月份，我們宣布了與貢渥的主要協議。所以這將是液化天然氣的買家。從那時起，我們一直與貢渥合作，對我們液化的設施進行升級。只是 - 在這裡（聽不清），我們用於高分的方法有 5 個不同的維度。一是可及性，這意味著我們是否有辦法將天然氣從現場運輸到液化天然氣設施。

The second one would be the pricing, of course, which is how much liquefaction fees do we have to pay. The third, which was important to us was also the accounting treatment, whether it gets treated as derivative versus not. So we've made a ton of progress on that front as well. And the fourth one would be just the credit requirements, which you referenced us not being investment grade, but we have come up with some creative ways of circumventing that, which feels very good. And last but not the least is the taking a facility that will get to FID. So that gets to what is the probability of them declaring FID on a time line that works for us.

第二個當然是定價，即我們必須支付多少液化費。第三，對我們來說也很重要的是會計處理，無論它是否被視為衍生品。因此，我們在這方面也取得了很大進展。第四個就是信用要求，您提到我們不是投資級別，但我們已經想出了一些創造性的方法來規避這一點，這感覺非常好。最後但並非最不重要的一點是獲得最終投資決定 (FID) 的設施。這樣就可以得出他們在適合我們的時間線上宣布最終投資決定的概率是多少。

So based on using that methodology, we have high graded to a few facilities. And you recently saw, we signed a heads of agreement with Energy Transfer on the Lake Charles facility. So pretty excited. There's 3 parties involved now us being a willing seller. Gunvor being the willing buyer there and then taking it through Lake Charles. That's not to say that's the end state. We previously signaled to you we want to get 15% to 20% of our production linked to LNG. This is a step towards that. And you should clearly see us announcing similar deals in the future. There's a lot of conversations going on. And I'm very, very proud of the efforts that the team has put in and the progress that we have made.

因此，基於使用該方法，我們對一些設施進行了高評級。您最近看到，我們與 Energy Transfer 就查爾斯湖設施簽署了一份主要協議。非常興奮。現在我們有3個參與方成為自願賣家。貢沃爾是那裡的自願買家，然後將其帶過查爾斯湖。這並不是說這就是最終狀態。我們之前曾向您表示，我們希望 15% 至 20% 的產量與液化天然氣相關。這是朝著這個目標邁出的一步。您應該清楚地看到我們將來會宣布類似的交易。有很多談話正在進行。我對團隊付出的努力和取得的進步感到非常非常自豪。

Our next question comes from Zach Parham from JPMorgan. Zach.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通的紮克·帕勒姆。扎克.

Yes, I guess just first on cash taxes. I know there were some moving pieces with the numbers this quarter. But the updated cash tax guidance indicates that $0 million to $50 million of cash tax payments for the year, and that includes the taxes associated with the Eagle Ford sale. Can you just clarify what your expectation is for cash tax payments in the second half of the year?

是的，我想首先是現金稅。我知道本季度的數字有一些變化。但更新後的現金稅指引顯示，今年需繳納 000 萬至 5000 萬美元的現金稅，其中包括與 Eagle Ford 銷售相關的稅款。您能否透露一下您對下半年現金稅繳納的預期？

Yes, Zach,this is Mohit. So as you referenced, our guidance for the full year still remains $0 million to $50 million. That is unchanged. What has changed also, as you pointed out, is that includes our base business and also the divestitures. The way you should think about it is the cash outflow net to us again, stays between $0 million to $50 million.

是的，扎克，這是莫希特。因此，正如您所提到的，我們對全年的指導仍保持在 000 萬至 5000 萬美元之間。那是不變的。正如您所指出的，變化還包括我們的基礎業務和資產剝離。你應該這樣想，我們的現金流淨額再次保持在 000 萬美元到 5000 萬美元之間。

And just to clarify, is that for the second half or for the full year?

想澄清一下，這是下半年還是全年？

No, that's for the full year. That's for the full year.

不，這是全年的。這是全年的情況。

Okay. And then just one follow-up. In the slide deck, you provided some pretty granular detail on cost deflation, highlighting total deflation of 5% to 7%. Can you talk about any differences in deflation you're seeing the operating area. Are you seeing a little more deflation in Haynesville versus the Marcellus just given the level of activity declines there?

好的。然後只有一個後續行動。在幻燈片中，您提供了一些有關成本通貨緊縮的非常詳細的細節，強調總通貨緊縮為 5% 到 7%。您能談談您在操作區域看到的通貨緊縮的任何差異嗎？鑑於那裡的活動水平下降，您是否認為海恩斯維爾與馬塞勒斯的通貨緊縮程度有所增加？

Yes, Zach, this is Josh. We -- just like we saw some differential level of inflation in the Haynesville relative to the Marcellus, I think we would expect to see the deflation behave somewhat similarly. I think that's going to be somewhat dependent upon though the service and also the contractual terms at which we're working under. And that really just going to depend or we have something under long-term contract in the Marcellus, whereas we have contracting flexibility in the Haynesville today. So I think long term, I think you would expect to see probably a little bit more deflation in the Haynesville. But I think the timing of it is going to be more dependent upon your contract situation than it is so much what's occurring in the fundamentals of each basin. .

是的，扎克，這是喬什。就像我們看到海恩斯維爾相對於馬塞勒斯的通貨膨脹水平有所不同一樣，我認為我們預計通貨緊縮的表現會有些相似。我認為這在一定程度上取決於服務以及我們所依據的合同條款。這實際上取決於我們在馬塞勒斯有長期合同，而我們今天在海恩斯維爾有合同靈活性。因此，我認為從長遠來看，你會預計海恩斯維爾可能會出現更多的通貨緊縮。但我認為，它的時機將更多地取決於你的合同情況，而不是每個盆地的基本面發生的情況。 。

And our next question comes from Bert Donnes from Truist.

我們的下一個問題來自 Truist 的伯特·多尼斯 (Bert Donnes)。

I just want to follow up on the LNG question. Can you maybe talk about what's the next step for Chesapeake? Are you more focused on locking in your existing volumes with liquefaction? Or are you more focused on finding additional volumes and then you'll just kind of backfill liquefaction after the fact? And then maybe if you could pull the curtain back a little bit and describe the power dynamic in some of these negotiations. Is energy transfer pitting you guys against each other? Or are these agreements so far out that everybody is going into these negotiations very comfortably?

我只想跟進液化天然氣問題。您能否談談切薩皮克的下一步計劃是什麼？您是否更專注於通過液化鎖定現有捲？或者你更專注於尋找額外的體積，然後你會在事後回填液化？然後也許您可以稍微拉開帷幕並描述其中一些談判中的權力動態。能量轉移會讓你們互相對抗嗎？或者這些協議是否已經達成，以至於每個人都可以輕鬆地進行這些談判？

Bert, this is Mohit. I'll take that. The strategy on the LNG side remains unchanged for us. When we initially announced it, the plan was to get diversification of our production. And the way we view LNG is just another sales point for us. So when we say 15% to 20% of our production should be linked to some sort of an LNG index, the intent is to -- just look at the overall portfolio and we view that 15% to 20% is just on the sales point similar, let's say, Tetco M3 or any sales to CGML in a Haynesville. Now we do go in eyes wide open that there will be periods of time where that diversification will be in the money.

伯特，這是莫希特。我會接受的。我們在液化天然氣方面的策略保持不變。當我們最初宣布這一計劃時，計劃是實現生產多元化。我們看待液化天然氣的方式只是我們的另一個賣點。因此，當我們說我們的產量的 15% 到 20% 應該與某種液化天然氣指數掛鉤時，其意圖是——只要看看整體投資組合，我們就認為 15% 到 20% 只是銷售點類似的，比方說，Tetco M3 或Haynesville 向CGML 的任何銷售。現在我們確實睜大了眼睛，在一段時間內，資金的多元化將會體現出來。

There will be periods of time when it will be out of the money. But we are looking at a long-term duration 15-plus years of duration on these contracts. And the expectation is that we reduce the overall risk in the portfolio and the risk for the returns, which underpins our returns back to the shareholders by doing this diversification. So that's the broad strategy behind this, and that remains unchanged.

會有一段時間會缺錢。但我們正在考慮這些合同的長期期限，期限為 15 年以上。我們的期望是降低投資組合的整體風險和回報風險，這通過多元化為股東帶來回報。這就是其背後的總體戰略，並且保持不變。

The second part of your question about the power dynamics in these conversations. The LNG universe is pretty tight-knit group. We have been working -- making inroads for the past 1.5 years at least. And what I would say is once we did announce our first heads of agreement in March, that suddenly created a lot of interest in what Chesapeake was doing and the number of inbounds that we have received since then has been great and working together with Gunvor, we have high graded as I said, some of the facilities that we want to go through. So it's a pretty competitive space and us announcing our heads of agreement suddenly increased visibility and the -- we were very excited to see that increased traction that we were getting. And as we referenced earlier, that led to the heads of agreement that we have signed with Lake Charles, and we think more of these -- you should expect us to be announcing some more of these.

你的問題的第二部分是關於這些對話中的權力動態。液化天然氣領域是一個非常緊密的群體。至少在過去 1.5 年裡，我們一直在努力，取得了進展。我想說的是，一旦我們在三月份宣布了我們的第一份協議，突然對切薩皮克正在做的事情產生了很大的興趣，從那時起我們收到的入境數量一直很大，並與貢沃爾合作，正如我所說，我們有一些我們想要體驗的高等級設施。因此，這是一個競爭相當激烈的領域，我們宣布達成共識後，知名度突然提高了，我們非常高興看到我們所獲得的關注度不斷增加。正如我們之前提到的，這導致了我們與查爾斯湖簽署的主要協議，我們考慮了更多這些協議——你應該期望我們會宣布更多這些協議。

That's great. And then shifting gears. I think you kind of touched on it earlier, but on the buyback front, you guys obviously have a large cash balance. And so some investors are probably pushing for you to use a significant amount of that to do buybacks now. Could you maybe talk about what -- how you guys have your internal formula for that? You just want to do a certain percentage of your float? Is it opportunistic based on market drivers? Or are you reserving some amount of cash for optionality in the market? Just your buybacks aren't linked to your free cash flow. So I just want to get a little more color on how you decide when to enter the market.

那太棒了。然後換檔。我認為您早些時候已經談到過這一點，但在回購方面，你們顯然擁有大量現金餘額。因此，一些投資者可能會敦促您現在使用大量資金進行回購。你們能談談你們是如何制定內部公式的嗎？你只想做一定比例的浮動？它是基於市場驅動因素的機會主義嗎？或者您是否保留了一定數量的現金以供市場選擇？只是你的回購與你的自由現金流無關。因此，我只是想進一步了解您如何決定何時進入市場。

Yes, this is Nick. All those things are relevant to us. We certainly think about how we're valued at any point in time, and that drives how we think about doing repurchases. We think about a consistent approach of wanting to make sure that we -- what we've said before, we're not just going to warehouse cash. So we want to be delivering cash back to shareholders. But we definitely think about the macro environment and think about what we expect to come about. And there's been a lot of uncertainty this year. There's been a lot of volatility in gas. We don't think that volatility is over.

是的，這是尼克。所有這些事情都與我們相關。我們當然會在任何時候考慮我們的估值，這決定了我們如何考慮回購。我們考慮採取一致的方法，希望確保我們——正如我們之前所說的那樣，我們不僅僅是儲存現金。因此，我們希望向股東返還現金。但我們肯定會考慮宏觀環境並考慮我們預期會發生什麼。今年存在很多不確定性。天然氣有很大的波動性。我們認為波動性還沒有結束。

We've been active with our buyback program and like the fact that even with that uncertainty, we've been active and we're positioned to continue to be active. So we'll look for opportunities to do more, but we're going to be pretty prudent about it, and we're going to approach the second half of the year looking for the right times to deploy cash through the buyback in a way that we think is good for shareholders in the long term. We do think about having some cash on the balance sheet. We think that's a nice thing maintained when you can. And right now, we have that flexibility. So we don't have a specific number that we talk about with investors, but we certainly think that holding a cash balance is a good thing. So we have a lot right now. and we'll continue to deploy it, and we'll see how the market unfolds for us. But I would expect us to continue to be quite active. And like I said before, we'll look for opportunities to do more. .

我們一直在積極實施我們的回購計劃，並且喜歡這樣一個事實：即使存在這種不確定性，我們仍然很積極，並且我們將繼續保持積極的態度。因此，我們將尋找做更多事情的機會，但我們對此將非常謹慎，我們將在下半年尋找合適的時機，以某種方式通過回購來部署現金我們認為從長遠來看這對股東有利。我們確實考慮在資產負債表上保留一些現金。我們認為，如果可以的話，保持這一點是件好事。現在，我們擁有這種靈活性。因此，我們沒有與投資者討論的具體數字，但我們當然認為持有現金餘額是一件好事。所以我們現在有很多。我們將繼續部署它，我們將看看市場如何為我們展開。但我預計我們將繼續非常活躍。正如我之前所說，我們將尋找機會做更多事情。 。

And we have a question now from Paul Diamond from Citigroup. .

現在花旗集團的保羅·戴蒙德向我們提出了一個問題。 。

Just a quick question on Slide 9, talking about the hybrid wells you guys highlighted in the Marcellus. Does that -- you guys view over the long term, is that tech that transferred down to Haynesville wells between Haynesville and Bossier?

只是關於幻燈片 9 的一個簡單問題，談論你們在 Marcellus 中強調的混合井。從長遠來看，你們認為這項技術是否轉移到了海恩斯維爾和波西爾之間的海恩斯維爾油井？

Yes. Paul, this is Josh. I think we're constantly going to be looking for opportunities to replicate technology and operational practices and other basins. There's unique differences between the Marcellus and the Haynesville that probably makes that a little bit more challenging distances, true vertical differences between the 2 formations is one general rock characteristics that require certain bud types as another. So I would never say never. Paul, because our teams are capable of doing some pretty phenomenal things. But today, I would say that looks like a pretty tough feat to accomplish.

是的。保羅，這是喬什。我認為我們將不斷尋找機會復制技術和運營實踐以及其他盆地。馬塞勒斯和海恩斯維爾之間存在獨特的差異，這可能會使距離更具挑戰性，兩種地層之間真正的垂直差異是一種普遍的岩石特徵，需要某些芽類型作為另一種特徵。所以我永遠不會說永遠不會。保羅，因為我們的團隊有能力做一些非常了不起的事情。但今天，我想說這看起來是一項非常艱鉅的任務。

Understood. And then just a quick follow-up as well. On Slide 7, you guys gave a bit of breakdown on your expectations around coming deflationary environment. I was wondering if you could give a bit more color on those that you see going down OCTG, rigs, pressure pumping, Sand & Logistics? Is there any one or a few that stand out more than the others? Or are they all kind of like right in that mid-single-digit range?

明白了。然後也只是快速跟進。在幻燈片 7 上，你們對即將到來的通貨緊縮環境的預期進行了一些細分。我想知道您是否可以對您所看到的 OCTG、鑽機、壓力泵、沙子和物流等方面進行更多描述？是否有一個或幾個比其他人更突出？或者它們都在中間個位數範圍內嗎？

Yes. Paul, I'll take that again. So right now, I mean, I think the one that is probably easiest for us to see and really think about how impactful it could be is on the OCTG side. There's just a general surplus of inventory. Imports are high, U.S. mill capacity has been healthy over the last year. And so that's created a little bit of surplus. And so really, it's not about, I think, the magnitude. I think we think that it's going to be quite material as part our savings go, but it's just timing. And we have inventories of pipe that we bought out in advance we need to work through that. And so as we get into the fourth quarter, we start realizing the benefits of that. I think the others, maybe just described as being a little bit more sticky.

是的。保羅，我再接受一次。所以現在，我的意思是，我認為我們最容易看到並真正思考它的影響力的是油井管方面。庫存總體過剩。進口量很高，去年美國工廠產能一直保持健康。這樣就創造了一點盈餘。事實上，我認為這與規模無關。我認為我們認為這對於我們的儲蓄來說是相當重要的，但這只是時機。我們有提前購買的管道庫存，我們需要解決這個問題。因此，當我們進入第四季度時，我們開始意識到這樣做的好處。我認為其他人可能只是被描述為更有粘性。

It's going to be dependent upon really where we see rig counts going, not just in the gas basins, but places like the Haynesville is going to be impacted by activity in the Permian. And so I think right now, I think we feel pretty good about seeing softening in the pressure pumping side. I think with oil commodities being relatively modestly up-priced today, diesel prices are low, which really help support lower logistical cost on sand. And then rigs, rigs are typically under longer-term contracts. And so in order to realize that, you really have to have managed your contract situation to be in a position to go renegotiate and bring in rigs at lower rates.

這將取決於我們看到的鑽機數量的變化，不僅是在天然氣盆地，而且像海恩斯維爾這樣的地方也將受到二疊紀活動的影響。所以我認為現在，我認為我們對看到壓力泵送方面的軟化感到非常高興。我認為，由於今天石油商品價格相對溫和上漲，柴油價格較低，這確實有助於降低沙子的物流成本。然後是鑽機，鑽機通常簽訂長期合同。因此，為了認識到這一點，您確實必須管理好您的合同情況，以便能夠重新談判並以較低的價格引進鑽機。

So I think the market conditions are primed for that. But I think the pace, the magnitude really is still up in the air. The work that we've done to date has taken us to a spot of where we see that roughly 5% to 7% reduction from Q1 of this year to a well that we do in Q1 of next year. And we think that's a pretty good down the road level. And it is also going to -- just want to point out, that will exclude any efficiency improvements or changes to lateraling. So potentially some upside on that as well as we head into 2024.

所以我認為市場條件已經為此做好了準備。但我認為速度和規模確實仍然懸而未決。我們迄今為止所做的工作使我們看到，與今年第一季度相比，明年第一季度的產量減少了大約 5% 到 7%。我們認為這在未來的水平上是相當不錯的。而且它也將 - 只是想指出，這將排除任何效率改進或橫向變化。因此，隨著我們進入 2024 年，這可能會帶來一些好處。

And our next question is from Scott Hanold from RBC Capital.

我們的下一個問題來自 RBC Capital 的 Scott Hanold。

Nick, it sounded like you all are optimistic, but somewhat cautious on the gas macro outlook. And obviously, that is when you look in '24 in your activity pace, it leads you to kind of hold off some decisions at this point in time. But what specifically are you looking for to get more, I guess, more constructive where you'd look to add back those rigs next year? Is it just the price? Is it your amount of hedging? Is it where storage is at on a relative basis? So if you can give us just a sense of what specific trigger points are there that you're really focused on?

尼克，聽起來你們都很樂觀，但對天然氣宏觀前景有些謹慎。顯然，當你查看 24 年的活動節奏時，它會導致你在此時推遲一些決定。但我想，您具體希望獲得更多、更具建設性的東西，以便明年增加這些鑽機？僅僅是價格嗎？是你的對沖金額嗎？它是相對存儲的位置嗎？那麼您能否讓我們了解您真正關注的具體觸發點是什麼？

Yes, Scott, great question. We're focused on the fundamentals. So we're focused on certainly where storage ends this fall, what that positions the market to look like as we come through winter and out of winter into the spring, what production is doing relative to that storage level. All of those things, of course, factor in. And then the big wild card that we always face this time of year is what will winter be, no one knows.

是的，斯科特，好問題。我們專注於基礎知識。因此，我們肯定會關註今年秋季存儲的結束情況，當我們度過冬季並從冬季進入春季時，市場的定位是什麼，相對於存儲水平的生產情況如何。當然，所有這些因素都會考慮在內。每年的這個時候，我們總是面臨的一個巨大的變數就是冬天會是什麼樣子，沒有人知道。

Early predictions of weather usually are highly inaccurate. So we don't put much stock in those. And we'll watch and see what happens with winter demand. And then the longer-term trends for demand for gas are very strong. We're continuing to see power gen for gas performed well on a weather-adjusted basis. We're seeing domestic demand for gas hold up quite nicely despite the predictions of recession and economic pullback in the country. We watch for those things to hold. Are they holding? And then, of course, very importantly, on the demand side, we'll pay attention to the timing of the LNG facilities. That growth in demand will be very impactful, but also very chunky. And so if there are changes to those schedules that will impact us. We feel pretty good about what we're reading on those projects. We don't have any better information than anybody else has on those projects. I think the market is gaining confidence in the time line of those projects, and we would therefore share in that same view but we'll allow again, the fundamentals of the market to show us that the market actually needs supply before we lean out really far in front of that.

早期的天氣預測通常非常不准確。所以我們不會在這些方面投入太多庫存。我們將觀察冬季需求的變化。天然氣需求的長期趨勢非常強勁。我們繼續看到天然氣發電在天氣調整的基礎上表現良好。儘管預測該國將出現衰退和經濟衰退，但我們看到國內天然氣需求保持良好。我們留意那些東西。他們拿著嗎？當然，非常重要的是，在需求方面，我們將關注液化天然氣設施的時機。需求的增長將非常有影響力，但也非常巨大。因此，如果這些時間表發生變化，將會影響我們。我們對所讀到的有關這些項目的內容感覺非常好。關於這些項目，我們沒有比其他人更好的信息。我認為市場對這些項目的時間表越來越有信心，因此我們會同意同樣的觀點，但我們會再次允許市場的基本面向我們表明，在我們真正放棄之前，市場實際上需要供應遠遠在前面。

Okay. It definitely sounds more of like a very real-time kind of monitoring situation. So certainly, I appreciate that.

好的。這聽起來確實更像是一種非常實時的監控情況。當然，我很欣賞這一點。

I would point you there though, Scott, if you don't mind me adding is that we're talking about right now, we're at 4 rigs in the Marcellus and 5 in the Haynesville. So we're really talking about being 1 rig in each play below what we've indicated as our maintenance. So the amount of change that it would take for us to change the trajectory of our production is not much. And that's by design. We have wanted to pull back capital so that we can allocate our capital in a really prudent manner in a soft market, but we also don't want to be in a place where there's tremendous friction costs of a pivot. And that's why you hedge, and we think all of that is working for us. And so when we decide that we're ready to respond to the market, when the market shows us it's time to respond, it's not going to take a heroic move on our part.

不過，我會向你指出，斯科特，如果你不介意我補充一下，我們現在正在討論的是，我們在馬塞勒斯有 4 個鑽機，在海恩斯維爾有 5 個鑽機。因此，我們實際上討論的是每場比賽中的 1 個裝備低於我們所表示的維護值。因此，我們改變生產軌跡所需的改變並不多。這是設計使然。我們希望撤回資本，以便在疲軟的市場中以非常審慎的方式配置資本，但我們也不希望處於一個存在巨大樞軸摩擦成本的地方。這就是你進行對沖的原因，我們認為所有這些都對我們有用。因此，當我們決定準備好對市場做出反應時，當市場向我們表明是時候做出反應時，我們不會採取英雄般的舉動。

Scott, if I may add on the hedging, this is Mohit. The -- so we've added about 174 Bcf of hedges since our last disclosure. When you look at our hedge book, we feel very, very good about the downside protection that it offers and the width of the callers fairly wide. So it retains the upside while at the same time, protects us from the downside. So if the bare scenario plays out, then we feel very good about the floors that through the callers. But at the same time, with the bullish new plays out, then we are retaining quite a bit of the upside through the white collars.

斯科特，如果我可以補充一點的話，我是莫希特。 - 因此，自上次披露以來，我們增加了約 174 Bcf 的對沖。當你查看我們的對沖賬本時，我們對它提供的下行保護以及跟單者的寬度相當寬的感覺非常非常好。因此，它保留了有利的一面，同時保護我們免受不利的影響。因此，如果裸露的場景發生，那麼我們對通過呼叫者的樓層感覺非常好。但與此同時，隨著看漲的新形勢的出現，我們將通過白領保留相當多的上行空間。

Okay. Got it. And my follow-up question is a little bit on M&A and obviously, the strategic I guess, tactical bolt-ons you all are doing. Just big picture, like what are you -- what is your appetite on M&A? Is there attractive things out there? I mean you talk about financing being issued with some of the car parties on the Eagle Ford side. But with your form of cash balance, does that provide you the opportunity to be a little bit more countercyclical with M&A right now? Is there things out there that are attractive? And just give us a sense of the scale of some of the bolt-ons that we could see moving forward.

好的。知道了。我的後續問題是關於併購，顯然，我猜你們都在做戰略補充和戰術補充。只是大局觀，就像你是什麼——你對併購的興趣是什麼？那裡有吸引人的東西嗎？我的意思是，你談到了與伊格爾福特方面的一些汽車方發放的融資。但以您的現金餘額形式，這是否為您提供了在併購方面更加反週期的機會？那裡有什麼吸引人的東西嗎？讓我們了解一些我們可以看到的未來發展的補充的規模。

We're always paying really close attention to what's available. And so there are things that are attractive, but attractive at what price you have to have a motivated seller or a seller that's willing to transact. And we stay in contact with a lot of people about a lot of things. We've been quiet now for several months on the acquisition side. So I think that tells you that the things that we've been interested in, there's probably a bid-ask spread there or at least uncertainty part of sellers as to what their strategic direction may be. But there's always an appetite if there's good available acreage at a reasonable price, we always want to add. But we'll be patient and you've seen us be patient now for a while. We don't feel in a rush to do anything.

我們始終密切關注可用的內容。因此，有些東西很有吸引力，但有吸引力的價格必須有一個積極的賣家或願意交易的賣家。我們與很多人就很多事情保持聯繫。幾個月以來，我們在收購方面一直保持沉默。因此，我認為這告訴您，我們一直感興趣的事情可能存在買賣價差，或者至少賣家對其戰略方向可能存在不確定性。但是，如果有足夠的可用面積且價格合理，那麼我們總是想補充一下。但我們會耐心等待，你已經看到我們已經耐心等待了一段時間了。我們並不急於做任何事情。

And so we'll watch and see what comes our way. We do have plenty of financial strength to do something should we decide to. And so I appreciate you raising that point because that is a part of financial flexibility that we think is really important to maintain. If there are good attractive assets to buy at a time when others maybe are not able to be as aggressive, that's a real strategic advantage. So we try to hold on to that, and we can wait for those things to come to us.

所以我們會觀察會發生什麼。如果我們決定做某事，我們確實有足夠的財務實力來做某事。因此，我感謝您提出這一點，因為這是我們認為保持財務靈活性非常重要的一部分。如果在其他人可能無法那麼積極進取的時候有有吸引力的優質資產可供購買，那麼這就是真正的戰略優勢。所以我們努力抓住這一點，然後等待這些事情的到來。

Our next question comes from Roger Read from Wells Fargo.

我們的下一個問題來自富國銀行的羅傑·里德。

Thanks. Good morning. I guess I'd like to follow up on maybe a couple of the last questions here in terms of your service contracts, your willingness to, I guess, be proactive or reactive in terms of committing to get up to the maintenance level of drilling and maybe something beyond that as the macro gets more favorable, latter part of '24 to '25. So as you think about whether it's rigs or materials or the pressure pumping side, just how does the market look there? How do you current -- how does your current contract status compared to maybe an ideal contract status as we look over the next, say, 12 to 18 months?

謝謝。早上好。我想我想跟進最後幾個問題，涉及您的服務合同，我想您是否願意主動或被動地承諾達到鑽井和維護水平。隨著宏觀經濟在24 世紀後期到25 世紀變得更加有利，也許還會有更多的事情發生。因此，當您考慮是否是鑽機、材料或壓力泵方面時，那裡的市場是什麼樣的？您當前的合同狀態與我們展望未來（例如 12 至 18 個月）的理想合同狀態相比如何？

Roger, this is Josh. As far as contracts go, when we look at our rigs, roughly half of our rig fleet, so of the 9 that will be in service kind of as of the end of this week, roughly half of those will come up for renewal by the end of the year. So we have some flexibility with that to potentially take advantage of softer markets. And I would actually say on the frac side, it turns out that it's pretty similar to that. We're roughly half of the half of the fleet is on shorter-term contracts, and we have one that's on a longer-term contract, but will come up at the end of the year. So we think we're actually pretty well positioned to be able to action structural adjustments that will ultimately lead to lower cost. That's really by design. We think maintaining flexibility across contract tenors is always going to work to our advantage and provide us the flexibility that we think is important for our business.

羅傑，這是喬什。就合同而言，當我們查看我們的鑽井平台時，大約有一半的鑽井平台，因此在本週末將投入使用的 9 艘鑽井平台中，大約一半將在年底。因此，我們有一定的靈活性，可以利用市場疲軟的機會。實際上我想說的是，在壓裂方面，事實證明它與此非常相似。我們大約一半的機隊簽訂了短期合同，我們還有一個簽訂了長期合同，但將在今年年底出現。因此，我們認為我們實際上處於非常有利的位置，能夠採取結構調整，最終降低成本。這確實是設計使然。我們認為，保持合同期限的靈活性始終對我們有利，並為我們提供我們認為對我們的業務很重要的靈活性。

And then willingness or I mean, I guess, earlier, I think you answered the question, which is you'll wait for the market to show you it needs more production rather than trying to anticipate. Just wanted to clarify if I understood that comment directly.

然後是意願，或者我的意思是，我想，早些時候，我想你回答了這個問題，那就是你會等待市場向你表明它需要更多的生產，而不是試圖預測。只是想澄清一下我是否直接理解了該評論。

Yes, Roger, Josh again here. That is absolutely true. And as Nick was commenting earlier as far as Acro, we want to see this 2024 shape up a little bit more. We just don't feel the need to aggressively start adding activity back until there are very clear market signals that the gas is, in fact, needed. So it's fairly dynamic. But we think, again, flexibility matters. And we think the strength of the company really affords us that flexibility. .

是的，羅傑，喬什又來了。這是絕對正確的。正如 Nick 早些時候就 Acro 所評論的那樣，我們希望看到 2024 年有更多的發展。我們只是覺得沒有必要積極開始增加活動，直到有非常明確的市場信號表明確實需要天然氣。所以它是相當動態的。但我們再次認為靈活性很重要。我們認為公司的實力確實為我們提供了這種靈活性。 。

Okay. And then my follow-up question on cash taxes. I understand the guidance for this year. Mohit, this is probably for you. But as we think about a better gas price environment going forward, is there any sort of linear expectation between where prices and how we should think about cash tax obligations.

好的。然後是我關於現金稅的後續問題。我了解今年的指導。莫希特，這可能適合你。但是，當我們考慮未來更好的天然氣價格環境時，價格與我們應如何考慮現金稅義務之間是否存在某種線性預期。

Yes, Roger, this is Mohit. Yes, certainly, when you think of our tax outlay for this year, there's a couple of components. One is how much we would pay on the divestitures. That one is pretty well settled because we know the numbers. To your other point, the unknown would be what are the prices the -- what are gas prices doing and how much of a tax leakage, the base business is generating. And that's a little bit of an unknown. When you think of the refund that we have received in 2Q from IRS, that was linked to us overpaying last year just because the prices last year, if you remember, they were strengthening. And then when they started weakening, we had overpaid based on the estimates they had initially.

是的，羅傑，這是莫希特。是的，當然，當你想到我們今年的稅收支出時，你會發現有幾個組成部分。一是我們將為資產剝離支付多少錢。這個問題已經很好解決了，因為我們知道數字。就你的另一點而言，未知的是價格是多少——天然氣價格在做什麼，以及基礎業務正在產生多少稅收洩漏。這有點未知。當你想到我們在第二季度從國稅局收到的退款時，這與我們去年多付的錢有關，因為去年的價格，如果你還記得的話，它們正在走強。然後當他們開始疲軟時，我們根據他們最初的估計支付了過多的費用。

So the volatility will remain. Unfortunately, that is an unknown as to what prices would do. Our guidance, as I said, just to reiterate, is on an all-in basis, including the divestitures in the base business. Our guidance for now still remains between the $ 0 million to $50 million of net cat flow adding up all different components. And probably that's the best guidance we can give us point.

因此波動性仍將存在。不幸的是，價格的影響尚不清楚。正如我所說，我們的指導是全面的，包括基礎業務的剝離。我們目前的指導意見仍然保持在 000 萬美元到 5000 萬美元的淨貓流量之間，將所有不同的組成部分相加。也許這就是我們能給我們的最好指導。

And at this time, we'll take our last question from Subash Chandra from Benchmark.

此時，我們將回答 Benchmark 的 Subash Chandra 提出的最後一個問題。

Great. So Nick, I think you talked about equity stakes and liquefaction as being a separate effort and maybe something that's not imminent. But a 2-part question there, I guess, on the LNG. First is if you have any updated thoughts on those opportunities? And then the other part on the LNG is if you had to handicap projects that get FID this year, how many do you think? Obviously, I assume Lake Charles makes that list.

偉大的。所以尼克，我認為你談到股權和液化是一項單獨的工作，也許不是迫在眉睫的事情。但我想，有一個由兩部分組成的問題，是關於液化天然氣的。首先是您對這些機會有什麼最新的想法嗎？關於液化天然氣的另一部分是，如果你不得不阻礙今年獲得最終投資決定的項目，你認為有多少？顯然，我認為查爾斯湖在這份名單上。

Subash, so on equity stakes and projects, we've said that we would consider that if the right deal came along. We've talked to a handful of the projects about that. Not sure that, that will ever make sense for us. If it does, great. We've done -- we've not been afraid to invest in for structure lately, we've done our momentum project, and that has proven to be, so far, very successful for us.

蘇巴什，關於股權和項目，我們說過，如果出現合適的交易，我們會考慮這一點。我們已經與一些項目討論過這個問題。不確定，這對我們是否有意義。如果是這樣，那就太好了。我們已經做到了——我們最近並不害怕對結構進行投資，我們已經完成了我們的動力項目，事實證明，到目前為止，這對我們來說非常成功。

And so things like that, that could be similar where it's a relatively modest amount of dollars compared to our capital program. and give you exposure to a great rate of return because you're derisking a project. We could think about that, but we're not in a place where I would tell you to necessarily expect that coming. So open to it but not necessarily anticipating it right now.

因此，與我們的資本計劃相比，類似的情況可能是金額相對較小的美元。並為您帶來很高的回報率，因為您消除了項目的風險。我們可以考慮這一點，但我不會告訴你一定要期待這種情況的發生。所以對它持開放態度，但不一定現在就期待它。

On the point about what gets FID-ed, we've got a slide in our deck where we try to show the tracking of what projects are out there. There's a lot of projects that have been FID-ed that are under construction, and we think there are a handful of others that are going to get there. We continue to think about what that really means to the LNG market, broadly. And a lot of the estimates about demand for LNG internationally are that we need all of this and more. So I think as long as that continues to be the estimates hold up around the demand for gas internationally growing, then you're going to see projects continue to get FID-ed.

關於什麼會受到 FID 的影響，我們在幻燈片中展示了對現有項目的跟踪情況。有很多已經完成最終決策的項目正在建設中，我們認為還有一些其他項目將會實現這一目標。我們繼續思考這對液化天然氣市場的廣泛意義。國際上對液化天然氣需求的許多估計都表明我們需要所有這些甚至更多。因此，我認為，只要國際天然氣需求增長的估計持續存在，那麼您就會看到項目繼續獲得最終投資決定。

The U.S. has a tremendous volume of gas resources. And we should connect those gas resources to markets where they're needed. It's an advantage to the economy broadly from an export perspective, it's an advantage to the economies that are importing a lower cost and lower carbon fuel. It's an advantage to consumers to have a more reliable -- lower carbon fuel. So I think there's plenty of momentum for more LNG. I think it will continue, and I think we're well positioned to pertain in that value chain.

美國擁有大量天然氣資源。我們應該將這些天然氣資源與需要它們的市場連接起來。從出口角度來看，這對經濟來說是一個優勢，對進口成本較低、碳排放較低的燃料的經濟體來說也是一個優勢。擁有更可靠的低碳燃料對消費者來說是一個優勢。所以我認為有足夠的動力來增加液化天然氣。我認為這種情況將會持續下去，而且我認為我們處於有利地位，可以融入該價值鏈。

Great. My follow-up is on the Haynesville and sort of industry activity. I think you guys were spot on in calling for the rig drops even though they were slow to start. And if I recall, I think your view was that most of those rig drops would happen by the third quarter. So just about now, give or take, and then it would slow down, if not stop. And so just wanted your thoughts on if that's still the case and what replacement rigs are required to hold production flat?

偉大的。我的後續行動是關於海恩斯維爾和某種行業活動。我認為你們在呼籲放棄鑽機方面是正確的，儘管他們啟動得很慢。如果我沒記錯的話，我認為您的觀點是，大部分鑽機下降將在第三季度發生。所以就現在而言，給予或接受，然後它就會減慢，甚至停止。所以只是想知道您的想法是否仍然如此，以及需要哪些更換設備才能保持生產平穩？

Yes. So we have made all those changes now. You're seeing that activity fall to the levels that we predicted right now. And one of the things that we did early this year to smooth out the effects of that or to get some sooner effects of that is we did defer some TILs and we've had some reduced production particularly in the Marcellus. And so you're seeing that show up in our numbers where otherwise, you might see stronger production had the demand been there for gas. We're in a position where we can pull back on production and defer TILs in a way that makes a lot of sense given the market conditions and then allow for activity drop to take place in what is a more thoughtful cycle of decision-making. So in other words, you don't have to run out and shut down a rig in the middle of a pad that it's drilling. You finish what you're doing, you work through the plans that you have in front of you there where you've already started spending money and then you can make a better decision to reduce friction costs of changes in activity wells. So seeing that play out for us this year. We're really happy how that's gone.

是的。所以我們現在已經做出了所有這些改變。您會看到活動下降到我們現在預測的水平。為了消除這種影響或更快地獲得一些效果，我們今年早些時候所做的事情之一是，我們確實推遲了一些 TIL，並且我們已經減少了一些產量，特別是在馬塞勒斯。因此，您會看到這一點出現在我們的數據中，否則，如果天然氣需求存在，您可能會看到更強勁的產量。考慮到市場狀況，我們可以以一種非常有意義的方式減少生產並推遲 TIL，然後在更深思熟慮的決策週期中允許活動下降。換句話說，您不必跑出去並關閉正在鑽探的平台中間的鑽機。你完成你正在做的事情，你完成你面前已經開始花錢的計劃，然後你可以做出更好的決定，以減少活動井變化的摩擦成本。所以今年我們就會看到這種情況的發生。我們真的很高興這一切都消失了。

Modest changes to activity have a pretty big impact on how we think about what we're doing from a production standpoint. That's good. We like to have that lever to pull, and we've been able to pull it. So we feel really good about how that's gone for us. And then like I said before, we're currently at 4 rigs in the Marcellus and 5 in the Haynesville, that's 1 short of maintenance for both of those plays. And so as we see the market recover, you'll see us add back a rig in both of those. And we always would have the option to go towards growth, should the market need that. But right now, we're just focused on doing what we're doing until the market shows us what supply is really required.

對活動的適度改變會對我們從生產角度思考我們正在做的事情產生相當大的影響。那挺好的。我們喜歡拉動這個槓桿，而且我們已經能夠拉動它。所以我們對我們的情況感到非常滿意。然後就像我之前說的，我們目前在 Marcellus 有 4 個鑽機，在 Haynesville 有 5 個鑽機，這兩個鑽機都缺少維護 1 個鑽機。因此，當我們看到市場復甦時，您會看到我們在這兩個方面都增加了鑽機。如果市場需要的話，我們總是可以選擇實現增長。但現在，我們只是專注於做我們正在做的事情，直到市場向我們展示真正需要的供應。

Sorry, Nick. To clarify, I was wondering about industry level activity. And yes. And if you think that industry Haynesville production will kind of mirror what you're experiencing. And if truly that DUC count is a fraction of what's publicly stated if maybe some of the views that Haynesville will hold firm are overstated as well.

對不起，尼克。澄清一下，我想知道行業層面的活動。是的。如果您認為海恩斯維爾的工業生產會有點反映您正在經歷的事情。如果 DUC 的數量確實只是公開聲明的一小部分，那麼海恩斯維爾堅持的一些觀點可能也被誇大了。

Yes. We think that the Haynesville has reduced to an activity level now that is maintenance or below. And when we think about that DUC count, Josh walked through a really good analysis of how we think about the cadence of rig count and cycle times and what happens. And one of the things that has happened this year, of course, is with reduced rig activity but also reduced completions, you are seeing the cycle times of wells expand a bit, and that's underlying all the moving numbers that he walked through of the ratio of rigs we're running to wells in process, to wells that are truly waiting on completion, you can affect that in the short term with adding additional completion crews. But the market for completions has been relatively tight. You are starting to see some completion crews now go to the sidelines and stay there. But the market for completions has been tight. So I think the Haynesville is in a place now of activity levels that are at mains or maybe below maintenance. That has a lag effect. So you're going to still see production showing up from the activity of the last 6 to 9 months for a bit. But we do think that the industry has made the right decisions around supply in the Haynesville, and we should wait for to show up.

是的。我們認為海恩斯維爾現在的活動水平已降至維護或以下。當我們考慮 DUC 計數時，Josh 對我們如何看待鑽機計數的節奏、週期時間以及發生的情況進行了非常好的分析。當然，今年發生的事情之一是鑽機活動減少，但完井數量也減少，你會看到油井的周期時間有所延長，這是他所經歷的所有移動數字的基礎我們正在運行的鑽機到正在運行的井，到真正等待完井的井，您可以通過增加額外的完井人員來在短期內影響這一點。但竣工市場相對緊張。你開始看到一些完工人員現在走到一旁並呆在那裡。但竣工市場一直緊張。因此，我認為海恩斯維爾現在的活動水平處於主電源狀態或可能低於維護狀態。這有一個滯後效應。因此，您仍會看到過去 6 到 9 個月的活動所產生的產量。但我們確實認為該行業已經就海恩斯維爾的供應做出了正確的決定，我們應該等待出現。

And this concludes our question-and-answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to Nick Dell'Osso for any closing remarks.

我們的問答環節到此結束。我想將會議轉回給 Nick Dell'Osso 發表閉幕詞。

Well, thank you all for the time this morning. We feel really good about where we're in this year. It's been a year of certainly reduced gas prices, but strong performance for our company. We are proud of that performance, proud of the way that we continue to return value to shareholders and really pleased with the setup we have for the future. Thanks again for your time, and we're always available for questions offline after this call and look forward to seeing you guys out on the road. Thanks.

好的，謝謝大家今天早上的時間。我們對今年的處境感覺非常好。今年天然氣價格確實有所下降，但我們公司的業績表現強勁。我們為這樣的業績感到自豪，為我們繼續向股東回報價值的方式感到自豪，並對我們未來的設置感到非常滿意。再次感謝您抽出寶貴的時間，我們隨時可以在通話結束後離線回答您的問題，並期待在路上見到您。謝謝。

The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.

會議現已結束。感謝您參加今天的演講。您現在可以斷開連接。