Chesapeake Energy Corp (CHK) 2022 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, and welcome to the Chesapeake Energy Third Quarter 2022 Earnings Teleconference. (Operator Instructions) Please note this event is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Chris Ayres, Vice President, Investor Relations and Treasurer at Chesapeake Energy. Please go ahead.

早上好，歡迎來到切薩皮克能源公司 2022 年第三季度收益電話會議。 （操作員說明）請注意正在記錄此事件。我現在想將會議轉交給 Chesapeake Energy 的投資者關係副總裁兼財務主管 Chris Ayres。請繼續。

Thank you, Andrew. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining our call today to discuss Chesapeake Energy's third quarter 2022 financial and operating results. Hopefully, you've had a chance to review our press release and the updated investor presentation that we posted to our website yesterday. During this morning's call, we will be making forward-looking statements, which consist of statements that cannot be confirmed by reference to existing information, including statements regarding our beliefs, goals, expectations, forecasts, projections and future performance and the assumptions underlying such statements.

謝謝你，安德魯。大家早上好，感謝您今天加入我們的電話會議，討論切薩皮克能源公司 2022 年第三季度的財務和經營業績。希望您有機會閱讀我們昨天發佈到我們網站上的新聞稿和更新的投資者介紹。在今天上午的電話會議上，我們將做出前瞻性陳述，其中包括無法通過參考現有信息確認的陳述，包括關於我們的信念、目標、預期、預測、預測和未來業績的陳述以及此類陳述所依據的假設.

Please note that there are a number of factors that will cause actual results to differ materially from our forward-looking statements. Including the factors identified and discussed in our press release yesterday and in other SEC filings. Please recognize that, except as required by applicable law, we undertake no duty to update any forward-looking statements, and you should not place undue reliance on such statements.

請注意，有許多因素會導致實際結果與我們的前瞻性陳述存在重大差異。包括我們昨天的新聞稿和其他 SEC 文件中確定和討論的因素。請注意，除適用法律要求外，我們不承擔更新任何前瞻性陳述的義務，您不應過分依賴此類陳述。

We may also refer to some non-GAAP financial measures which help facilitate comparisons across periods and with peers. For any non-GAAP measure we use a reconciliation to the nearest corresponding GAAP measure and can be found on our website. With me on the call today are Nick Dell'Osso, Mohit Singh and Josh Viets. Nick will give a brief overview of our results, and then we will open up the teleconference to Q&A. So with that, thank you again. I'll now turn it over to Nick.

我們還可以參考一些非 GAAP 財務指標，這有助於促進跨時期和與同行的比較。對於任何非 GAAP 衡量標準，我們使用最接近的相應 GAAP 衡量標准進行調節，可以在我們的網站上找到。今天與我通話的有 Nick Dell'Osso、Mohit Singh 和 Josh Viets。尼克將簡要概述我們的結果，然後我們將打開電話會議進行問答。因此，再次感謝您。我現在將其交給尼克。

Good morning, and thank you all for joining our call. Before we get to Q&A this morning, I want to cover 3 topics that we believe are most important to our shareholders. The first is our strong third quarter execution, second is our industry-leading cash returns and the third is our strategy to continue our momentum into 2023 and be LNG ready.

早上好，感謝大家加入我們的電話會議。在今天上午進行問答之前，我想先談談我們認為對股東最重要的 3 個主題。首先是我們強勁的第三季度執行力，其次是我們行業領先的現金回報，第三是我們將勢頭延續到 2023 年並為液化天然氣做好準備的戰略。

So to start off, we had another strong quarter operationally. We delivered on our production in the Haynesville and Marcellus and had some great well results in the Eagle Ford. We did experience a few delays in Eagle Ford production due to facility delays that pushed some volumes into Q4, but believe those will be temporary.

因此，首先，我們有另一個強勁的運營季度。我們在 Haynesville 和 Marcellus 交付了我們的產品，並在 Eagle Ford 取得了一些不錯的成績。由於設施延遲將部分產量推入第四季度，我們確實經歷了 Eagle Ford 生產的一些延遲，但相信這些將是暫時的。

We're reaffirming our annual production and CapEx guidance ranges for 2022, reflecting our confidence in our delivery as we finish out the year. In the Haynesville, we've made significant strides with midstream capacity. We've increased our gathering and treating capacity by 25% for this year and up to 60% in out years. We've also committed 700 million cubic feet a day to a new pipeline to be built by momentum from the heart of the Haynesville play down to [Gilles.] This project also has an associated carbon capture and sequestration program with it.

我們重申 2022 年的年度產量和資本支出指導範圍，反映出我們對年底交付的信心。在海恩斯維爾，我們在中游容量方面取得了重大進展。我們今年的收集和處理能力增加了 25%，往後幾年增加了 60%。我們還承諾每天向一條新管道輸送 7 億立方英尺的水，該管道將由 Haynesville 中心地帶一直延伸到 [Gilles]。該項目還有一個相關的碳捕獲和封存計劃。

And we're really excited to be a part of this, we think, unique and transformational project. We have an opportunity to participate in up to 35% of the equity of the project, and we expect to take that option. This gives us greater than a Bcf day or more than 50% of 2024 and beyond Haynesville volumes that are contracted for Gulf Coast delivery and pricing with both the Momentum pipe and our Golden Pass transaction.

我們真的很高興能成為這個我們認為獨特且具有變革性的項目的一部分。我們有機會參與該項目高達 35% 的股權，我們預計會選擇該選項。這給了我們超過一個 Bcf 天或超過 2024 年的 50% 和超過海恩斯維爾的體積，這些體積與 Momentum 管道和我們的 Golden Pass 交易簽訂了墨西哥灣沿岸交付和定價合同。

In the Marcellus, our synergies from the Chief acquisition continue to come to fruition. As we've discussed before, we're maximizing the capacity of the combined gathering systems. And we're looking forward to 2023, where our well design improvements of longer lateral length and enhanced completions should show up with improved productivity per well.

在 Marcellus，我們從 Chief 收購中獲得的協同效應繼續取得成果。正如我們之前所討論的，我們正在最大限度地提高組合收集系統的容量。我們期待著到 2023 年，屆時我們的井設計改進（更長的橫向長度和增強的完井）應該會提高每口井的生產率。

We've also been able to add a little bit of leasehold in the Lower Marcellus core of the play, which we're really pleased to do. Looking forward in the Marcellus, we're moving to a co-development of the Upper Marcellus in the core of the basin to optimize development of all zones of inventory. We expect the 2023 program to be about 50% Upper Marcellus and Lower Marcellus.

我們還能夠在該區域的 Lower Marcellus 核心增加一點租賃權，我們真的很高興這樣做。展望馬塞勒斯，我們正在共同開發位於盆地核心的上馬塞勒斯，以優化所有庫存區的開發。我們預計 2023 年計劃將有大約 50% 的 Upper Marcellus 和 Lower Marcellus。

This will bring the average well performance down marginally, but does maximize overall inventory returns. And combined, the Lower and Upper Marcellus remain the top natural gas return opportunity in the U.S. On the Eagle Ford, I'm sure you all have questions about the process. We have no new news to report this morning other than the process is moving along very well, and it's too early for any results.

這將略微降低平均油井性能，但會最大限度地提高整體庫存回報。結合起來，下馬塞勒斯和上馬塞勒斯仍然是美國最大的天然氣回收機會。在伊格爾福特，我相信你們都對這個過程有疑問。今天早上我們沒有新消息要報告，只是流程進展順利，現在得出任何結果還為時過早。

We've been very pleased in the breadth of the interest in the assets and we'll report results when available. Turning to our cash returns. Our model continues to lead the industry in delivering returns to shareholders. We generated $773 million of adjusted free cash flow in the third quarter. And this yielded $3.16 per share of total dividends to be paid this quarter.

我們對資產的廣泛興趣感到非常高興，我們將在可用時報告結果。轉向我們的現金回報。我們的模式繼續引領行業為股東提供回報。我們在第三季度產生了 7.73 億美元的調整後自由現金流。這產生了本季度支付的總股息每股 3.16 美元。

Additionally, we recently purchased $400 million of shares from former creditors. This brings buybacks on the years to $1.1 billion, 80% of which have come from -- directly from former creditors. Our total returns to date, including buybacks and dividends, totaled $1.9 billion this year. We're really proud that Chesapeake stands alone at directing its free cash flow to meaningful actual cash returns.

此外，我們最近從前債權人手中購買了價值 4 億美元的股票。這使這些年的回購額達到 11 億美元，其中 80% 直接來自前債權人。迄今為止，我們今年的總回報（包括回購和股息）總計 19 億美元。我們真的很自豪切薩皮克在將其自由現金流導向有意義的實際現金回報方面獨樹一幟。

During the quarter, we also were able to simplify our capital structure with the warrant exchange. That resulted in eliminating 2/3 of the outstanding warrants, and it also resulted in a reduction of our short interest by 55%. We're pleased that when you combine this with our repurchase efforts, we're still able to lower our fully diluted share count.

在本季度，我們還能夠通過權證交換簡化我們的資本結構。這導致消除了 2/3 的未償認股權證，並且還導致我們的空頭權益減少了 55%。我們很高興，當您將此與我們的回購努力結合起來時，我們仍然能夠降低完全稀釋後的股票數量。

Separately, we continue to work with the rating agencies in recognition of our investment-grade quality balance sheet, and we're pleased that S&P upgraded us to BB this month. So to wrap up, I want to talk about how we're positioned for 2023. Our Marcellus program will remain steady and continue to highlight leading capital efficiency and the very best returns of all gas opportunities in North America.

另外，我們繼續與評級機構合作，認可我們的投資級質量資產負債表，我們很高興標準普爾本月將我們升級為 BB。最後，我想談談我們如何為 2023 年做好準備。我們的 Marcellus 計劃將保持穩定，並繼續強調領先的資本效率和北美所有天然氣機會的最佳回報。

In the new slides we posted today, we added some slides that lay out our Haynesville market strategy. We expect to leverage our capital efficiency leadership our growth flexibility and our midstream partnerships to participate Chesapeake to be LNG-ready as the macro tailwinds from the significant increase in demand due to export capacity expansions arrive in the second half of the decade.

在我們今天發布的新幻燈片中，我們添加了一些幻燈片來展示我們的海恩斯維爾市場戰略。我們希望利用我們在資本效率方面的領先地位、我們的增長靈活性和我們的中游合作夥伴關係來參與切薩皮克，為液化天然氣做好準備，因為出口能力擴張導致需求顯著增加的宏觀順風將在本世紀下半葉到來。

We've been consistent in our message to grow and capacity additions are available to meet incremental demand. As export capacity doesn't begin to increase until at least 2024, we're setting up our near-term volumes to be relatively flat and begin to ramp slowly as we approach 2024. We're truly excited about what this setup means for our shareholders as we're uniquely positioned to deliver differential shareholder value over the next several years due to our superior capital returns, deep attractive inventory in the best places and a premier balance sheet, all while doing things with a focus on sustainability.

我們一直堅持我們的增長信息，並且可以增加容量來滿足增量需求。由於出口能力至少要到 2024 年才會開始增加，我們將近期的產量設定為相對平穩，並在接近 2024 年時開始緩慢增加。我們對這種設置對我們的意義感到非常興奮股東，因為我們具有獨特的優勢，可以在未來幾年內提供不同的股東價值，這歸功於我們卓越的資本回報、最佳地點的極具吸引力的庫存和一流的資產負債表，同時專注於可持續發展。

Andrew, we'll open it up for questions now.

安德魯，我們現在開始提問。

We will now begin the question-and-answer session. (Operator Instructions) The first question comes from Scott Hanold with RBC Capital Markets.

我們現在開始問答環節。 （操作員說明）第一個問題來自 RBC 資本市場的 Scott Hanold。

Obviously, the Haynesville, you all are -- we're preparing to do more there. But I guess, the last couple of quarters, there had been some, I guess, constraints and there are a couple of different constraints. Can you just provide a little bit of color on that? And then to Slide 23, it looks like you've got some solutions, but just give us a sense of like timing and level of confidence that you have in this plan and strategy?

顯然，海恩斯維爾，你們都是——我們正準備在那裡做更多的事情。但我想，在過去的幾個季度裡，我想存在一些限制，並且有幾個不同的限制。你能提供一點顏色嗎？然後是幻燈片 23，看起來你已經有了一些解決方案，但只是讓我們了解你對這個計劃和戰略的時間和信心水平？

Because it does seem like the Haynesville from an LNG perspective and just from a volume perspective, it's going to be important to you all going forward.

因為從液化天然氣的角度和體積的角度來看，它看起來確實像海恩斯維爾，所以它對你們所有人來說都很重要。

Yes. Great question, Scott. It's super important. I'll talk a bit about this and others may have something to add in here. But we have seen constraints. We've been talking about that for a number of quarters, and we've been active in contracting for incremental capacity, both on the gathering side as well as the treating side.

是的。很好的問題，斯科特。這非常重要。我會稍微談談這個，其他人可能會在這裡添加一些內容。但我們已經看到了限制。幾個季度以來，我們一直在談論這個問題，並且我們一直在積極簽訂增量產能合同，無論是在收集方面還是在處理方面。

We've also now contracted for incremental takeaway with the momentum pipe. And so we are positioning for what we do think is an opportunity to grow over the next few years. But in the near term, we really don't see any need for growth. And so 2023 is probably setting up to be about flat on a year-over-year basis but we'll have -- as we talked about last quarter, we'll have an exit to exit growth rate. So when you think about what we've done in the Haynesville, the beginning of last year, as we were integrating the buying assets and recognizing some of the constraints that existed, we dropped to 5 rigs.

我們現在還與動量管道簽訂了增量外賣合同。因此，我們正在為我們認為是未來幾年增長的機會進行定位。但在短期內，我們真的看不到任何增長的需要。因此，2023 年可能會與去年同期基本持平，但我們將會——正如我們在上個季度談到的那樣，我們將有一個退出增長率的出口。因此，當您考慮去年年初我們在海恩斯維爾所做的事情時，當我們整合購買資產並認識到存在的一些限制時，我們將鑽機數量降至 5 個。

There's a lag effect on the reduction in rig count like that, and we're seeing lower turn in lines as a result of that reduction in rig count show up now in the fourth quarter as well as into the first quarter of 2023. That's really all exactly as expected and the capacity additions that we've contracted for, and you can see on that map on Slide 23 that you referenced, they do begin to show up as we move through 2023 and get into 2024.

像這樣減少鑽機數量會產生滯後效應，我們看到由於鑽機數量的減少，現在第四季度和 2023 年第一季度都出現了轉機率下降的情況。這真的是一切都完全符合預期以及我們已經簽訂合同的容量增加，你可以在你引用的幻燈片 23 的地圖上看到，隨著我們從 2023 年進入 2024 年，它們確實開始出現。

So we're right in line with aligning our volumes to capacity additions as we've been talking about. So volumes ticked down a little bit in the first quarter of '23 and then as we build our activity moving through the year, we'll see an exit to exit growth. And again, we think this is all very well timed with where we think the longer-term supply-demand dynamics will head, and we're pretty pleased with the setup.

因此，正如我們一直在談論的那樣，我們與將我們的數量與產能增加保持一致是正確的。因此，23 年第一季度的銷量略有下降，然後隨著我們全年開展活動，我們將看到退出增長的出口。再一次，我們認為這一切都恰逢其時，我們認為長期供需動態將走向何方，我們對這種設置非常滿意。

Got it. And just to clarify that, so you've got your guide post for 4Q, which is a downtick and then '23 is another downtick before it goes up. Just wanted to clarify that.

知道了。只是為了澄清這一點，所以你得到了 4Q 的指導帖子，這是一個下降趨勢，然後 '23 是另一個下降趨勢，然後上升。只是想澄清一下。

First quarter of '23 should be a little bit of a downtick from there, yes.

是的，23 年第一季度應該比那時略有下滑。

Okay. Got it. Got it. Okay. And then my follow-up is on that Momentum pipeline. Can you just discuss a couple of things. One, the pricing dynamics around that for you all in the gas. And then number two, the CCS options, you talk about, it sounds like you're going to commit to the 35% participation. What kind of capital and timing around that capital would that result in?

好的。知道了。知道了。好的。然後我的後續行動是關於 Momentum 管道的。你能談談幾件事嗎？第一，圍繞這一點的定價動態對你們所有人來說都是天然氣。然後是第二個，CCS 選項，你說的，聽起來你要承諾 35% 的參與。這會導致什麼樣的資本和圍繞該資本的時機？

Sure. So the pipe itself will deliver gas to [Gilles.] And so we'll pay a rate which isn't disclosed for -- we can't disclose it for the terms of the contract. But if you look at the market out there for FT in the basin, we think this is right in line with what other pipes are charging.

當然。因此，管道本身將向 [Gilles] 輸送天然氣。因此，我們將支付未披露的費率——我們無法根據合同條款披露。但如果你看看流域內 FT 的市場，我們認為這與其他管道的收費是一致的。

We ran a pretty competitive RFP to determine which pipe we would participate in and ultimately selected this one. So we felt it was a really attractive overall rate on the pipe as well as market delivery solution and then the carbon capture piece was quite helpful as well. Momentum is also going to build a bit of gathering for us in the field. There was a couple of sections on the vine acreage that had yet to be contracted for wellhead gathering.

我們運行了一個非常有競爭力的 RFP 來確定我們將參與哪個管道，並最終選擇了這個。因此，我們認為這是一個非常有吸引力的管道整體價格以及市場交付解決方案，然後碳捕獲件也非常有幫助。 Momentum 也將為我們在該領域建立一些聚會。葡萄園上有幾個部分尚未承包用於井口採集。

So we've been able to tie that into this entire contract and get that done at a very attractive rate as well. The carbon capture element of it is going to take longer to be built out than just the delivery to Gilles. But the way this will work is that we will deliver the gas to Gilles inclusive of CO2, so it won't be CO2 treated in the field.

所以我們已經能夠將其與整個合同聯繫起來，並以非常有吸引力的速度完成。它的碳捕獲元素將需要更長的時間來建造，而不僅僅是交付給吉爾斯。但這將起作用的方式是，我們將向 Gilles 輸送包含 CO2 的氣體，因此它不會在現場進行 CO2 處理。

The CO2 will all be removed at the delivery point, so you'll have scale in the removal of the CO2 before it goes further downstream to market. And then with that scale, you can afford to sequester the carbon. So we think it's a really innovative project. We're excited to be a part of it. And it's not done yet.

CO2 將在交付點全部去除，因此在 CO2 進入下游市場之前，您將有規模地去除 CO2。然後有了這個規模，你就可以負擔得起封存碳。所以我們認為這是一個真正的創新項目。我們很高興能參與其中。而且還沒有完成。

We still have to finish the contracts and the documentation around the equity participation. But we do intend to do that. The cost to participate in the equity, of course, it's a projection, not completely known, but we would estimate probably around $350 million over a couple of year period. And again, the return on that investment to us should be quite attractive.

我們還需要完成有關股權參與的合同和文件。但我們確實打算這樣做。參與股權的成本，當然，這是一個預測，還不完全清楚，但我們估計在幾年內可能約為 3.5 億美元。再說一遍，這項投資的回報對我們來說應該是非常有吸引力的。

The next question comes from Umang Choudhary with Goldman Sachs.

下一個問題來自高盛的 Umang Choudhary。

I would love your thoughts on the macro environment here, given price -- gas prices have been so volatile and weak recently, and there are concerns around supply outpacing demand next year. And also, would love to get your thoughts around what price levels will you look to reduce activity in the Haynesville if, say, the winter pricing -- winter weather is more warmer than expected.

考慮到價格，我很想听聽您對宏觀環境的看法——天然氣價格最近波動和疲軟，人們擔心明年供應將超過需求。而且，如果冬季定價 - 冬季天氣比預期更暖和，我很樂意了解您希望減少 Haynesville 活動的價格水平。

Great question, Umang. We spent a lot of time talking about the macro lately. It has certainly been volatile, as you suggest. And it has been headed a bit lower. The great thing about the gas market today is, well, it's been volatile and well, it's been headed a bit lower. We're still talking about gas prices at which our company makes a really attractive profit.

好問題，烏芒。我們最近花了很多時間討論宏。正如您所建議的，它肯定是不穩定的。它已經走低了一點。今天天然氣市場的偉大之處在於，好吧，它一直在波動，好吧，它已經走低了一點。我們仍在談論我們公司賺取真正有吸引力的利潤的天然氣價格。

And we generate great cash flows for shareholders. So we think we're really well prepared for either a weaker gas price environment or if it does turn cold and gas prices go back to being more robust, we're obviously prepared for that as well. I would tell you that based on the setup of growing supply that we see across the market today and demand that is really going to rely on weather in the short term, we certainly have our -- we're very well prepared for a weaker gas market here as we move into 2023.

我們為股東創造了巨大的現金流。因此，我們認為我們已經為疲軟的天然氣價格環境做好了充分的準備，或者如果它確實變冷並且天然氣價格恢復強勁，我們顯然也為此做好了準備。我會告訴你，基於我們今天在整個市場上看到的不斷增長的供應以及短期內真正依賴於天氣的需求，我們當然有我們 - 我們已經為較弱的天然氣做好充分準備隨著我們進入 2023 年，這裡的市場。

And we can't predict it, don't know if that will actually happen but if it does, we'll be ready for that. At what price would we reduce activity in the Haynesville is a great question. And there's no real hard and fast answer to that, Umang. It depends on a handful of things. One, it depends on how the curve reacts relative to just the nearest term months on the curve. And it depends on how we see the dynamics that affect that. So what the drivers really look like they are.

我們無法預測，不知道這是否真的會發生，但如果真的發生，我們會做好準備。我們將以什麼價格減少海恩斯維爾的活動是一個很好的問題。 Umang，對此沒有真正硬性的快速答案。這取決於一些事情。第一，這取決於曲線相對於曲線上最近的月份的反應。這取決於我們如何看待影響它的動態。那麼司機們到底是什麼樣子的。

We do remain super bullish on the longer-term supply-demand fundamentals, particularly for the Haynesville, but really for the U.S. as a whole. And so we will pay very close attention to the 2023 and 2024 setup as to really how that supply/demand is going to play out and the timing that, that growth and demand should show up.

我們仍然非常看好長期供需基本面，尤其是海恩斯維爾，但實際上是整個美國。因此，我們將非常密切地關注 2023 年和 2024 年的設置，以了解供需將如何發揮作用以及增長和需求應該出現的時間。

There's plenty of uncertainty around the precise timing of when export capacity will come online. We subscribed all the same research that everybody else does. And we know that even the very best efforts at estimations there could be off by several months in an environment where supply chains are still challenged and labor markets are tight.

出口產能何時上線的確切時間存在很多不確定性。我們和其他人一樣訂閱了所有相同的研究。而且我們知道，在供應鏈仍然面臨挑戰且勞動力市場緊張的環境下，即使做出最好的估計也可能會出現幾個月的偏差。

So we're very prepared to be responsive to this kind of market. And I think if you saw prices fall a sustained price or a price throughout the curve fall down into the mid- to low 3s, we'd probably pull back a bit. I think we still make a good bit of money at that level, but it would be an indication to us that the supply-demand fundamentals are weaker than we probably expect as we sit here today, and that would give us a reason to step back and think about whether or not activity should come down.

因此，我們已做好應對此類市場的準備。而且我認為，如果您看到價格持續下跌或整個曲線的價格跌至 3 的中低水平，我們可能會稍微回落。我認為我們在那個水平上仍然賺了很多錢，但這向我們表明供需基本面比我們今天坐在這裡可能預期的要弱，這將給我們一個退後一步的理由並考慮活動是否應該下降。

Really, really hard to predict exactly what that looks like because it depends on the facts at the time. But that is certainly a point at which we would evaluate whether or not we have our capital allocation where we want it.

真的，真的很難準確預測它是什麼樣子，因為它取決於當時的事實。但這肯定是我們評估我們是否有我們想要的資本配置的一個點。

That's great. Clear. And my next question was on your capital spending outlook for next year. As you go through your budgeting process, any early read across in terms of how you're thinking about cost inflation and the impact on your spending next year? And then any -- you talked about enhanced completions and shifting to longer laterals. Any benefits from that as you add more of those into your program next year?

那太棒了。清除。我的下一個問題是關於您明年的資本支出前景。當您完成預算編制過程時，是否有任何關於您如何考慮成本通脹及其對明年支出的影響的早期閱讀？然後是任何 - 你談到了增強的完成度和轉向更長的橫向。當您明年將更多此類內容添加到您的計劃中時，這樣做有什麼好處嗎？

Yes, this is Josh. As far as inflation goes for next year, year-over-year, I think we're thinking it's going to be in the 10% to 15% range. And so if you think about the activity that we've been talking about kind of carrying forward 5 rigs in Marcellus. We're just in the process of adding a seventh rig in the Haynesville, which again, as Nick talked about, we'll continue to monitor the markets and be flexible with that program.

是的，這是喬希。就明年的通貨膨脹率而言，與去年同期相比，我認為我們認為它會在 10% 到 15% 的範圍內。因此，如果您考慮我們一直在談論的在馬塞勒斯推進 5 個鑽機的活動。我們剛剛在 Haynesville 添加第七個鑽井平台，正如 Nick 所說，我們將繼續監控市場並對該計劃保持靈活性。

And then a relatively steady 2- to 3-rig program in the Eagle Ford is the activity that we're outlining. So that's kind of how we see the year shaping up from a capital standpoint. And then you asked about the enhanced completions, if I maybe go ahead and address that. Really, where we're looking at that is going to be in the Marcellus specifically, and one of the things that we're attempting to do there is not only increased lateral links, but we're also looking at adding additional wells per pad, and that's one of the advantages we find with the [toe] development.

然後，我們正在概述的 Eagle Ford 相對穩定的 2 到 3 鑽井計劃。所以這就是我們從資本的角度來看今年的情況。然後你詢問了增強的完成度，我是否可以繼續解決這個問題。真的，我們正在研究的地方將特別是在 Marcellus 中，我們正在嘗試做的事情之一不僅是增加橫向鏈接，而且我們還在考慮為每個墊添加額外的井，這是我們在 [腳趾] 開發中發現的優勢之一。

The completion optimization there is really about fluid loading and we think there are some areas that benefit actually from less fluid. And so those are the things that we'll look at, which not only drives potential cost reductions and enhances our capital efficiency, but we also think there's opportunities there to increase productivity as well. So that comment was really specific to Marcellus.

那裡的完井優化實際上是關於流體加載的，我們認為有些區域實際上受益於較少的流體。因此，這些就是我們要研究的事情，這不僅會推動潛在的成本降低並提高我們的資本效率，而且我們還認為那裡也有機會提高生產力。因此，該評論確實是針對 Marcellus 的。

The next question comes from Doug Leggate with Bank of America.

下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Doug Leggate。

So Nick, I'm clearly losing the value erosion debate on the variable dividend. So I wouldn't [plug] that to that, but I do have a question on use of proceeds if and when you eventually sell the Eagle Ford, what should we think in terms of how you deploy that -- those proceeds, whether it be to incremental acquisitions to the balance sheet or indeed, to share buybacks, given that, I guess, you and -- does continue to see your share price undervalued.

所以尼克，我顯然輸掉了關於可變股息的價值侵蝕辯論。所以我不會[插入]那個，但我確實有一個關於收益使用的問題，如果你最終出售 Eagle Ford，我們應該如何部署它 - 這些收益，無論是是對資產負債表進行增量收購，或者實際上是股票回購，因為我猜，你和 - 確實繼續看到你的股價被低估。

Great question, Doug. So we've talked about with the proceeds from the Eagle Ford that we have a return model, we would think about applying these proceeds through that return model. We've said that the dividends really are about operating cash flow. This is not operating cash flow.

好問題，道格。所以我們已經談到了我們有一個回報模型的 Eagle Ford 的收益，我們會考慮通過該回報模型應用這些收益。我們已經說過，股息實際上與經營現金流有關。這不是經營現金流。

So we would lean more heavily to buybacks when we think about the proceeds here. But importantly, I think, especially as we recognize that we could have a softer gas market here, at least for a year or a little bit more. And again, I think the softer requires a little bit of emphasis there because we don't really anticipate it to be a negative market for us as a company, just maybe not quite as robust as 2022 has been.

因此，當我們考慮這裡的收益時，我們會更傾向於回購。但重要的是，我認為，尤其是當我們認識到我們這裡的天然氣市場可能會疲軟，至少一年或更長時間。再一次，我認為較軟的市場需要稍微強調一下，因為我們並不真的預計它對我們公司來說是一個負面市場，只是可能不如 2022 年那麼強勁。

We will pay down some debt with the proceeds. We will make sure that as we sell off an asset that has a lot of EBITDA, we make sure our balance sheet stays in great shape. So we expect to look at the proceeds that come in, think about what the right balance sheet impact is to reduce leverage and then think about the best way to pursue a return of some of that capital to shareholders through a buyback.

我們將用所得款項償還一些債務。我們將確保在出售具有大量 EBITDA 的資產時，我們確保資產負債表保持良好狀態。因此，我們希望查看所獲得的收益，考慮降低杠桿率對資產負債表的正確影響，然後考慮通過回購將部分資本返還給股東的最佳方式。

But we'll have to wait and see when the proceeds come in, the magnitude of the proceeds and exactly how it all plays out to have specific answers for you, Doug.

但我們必須拭目以待，看看收益何時到來、收益的規模以及它究竟如何發揮作用，才能為你提供具體的答案，道格。

Great. Thank you. It's a good enough answer. Thank you, Nick. I appreciate the directional color. I guess my follow-up is I hate to be predictable and ask about inflation, but one of your peers reported last night, not the right peers perhaps, but pointing to perhaps higher than consensus expectations, for capital.

偉大的。謝謝你。這是一個足夠好的答案。謝謝你，尼克。我很欣賞方向性的顏色。我想我的後續行動是我討厭被預測並詢問通貨膨脹，但你的一位同行昨晚報告說，也許不是正確的同行，但指出可能高於普遍預期的資本。

You guys haven't really given a '23 look yet, but your -- your fourth quarter run rate doesn't seem to be seeing a lot of cost pressure. So upward cost pressures. So I wonder if you could just give us a steer as to what you think in your 2 core basis, inflationary capital impacts could look like for the 2023 budget in that flat production profile you talked about. And I'll leave it there.

你們還沒有真正給出 23 年的樣子，但是你們的——你們第四季度的運行率似乎並沒有看到很大的成本壓力。所以上行的成本壓力。因此，我想知道您能否就您在 2 個核心基礎上的想法給我們一個指導，在您談到的持平生產概況中，通脹資本影響可能看起來像 2023 年預算。我會把它留在那裡。

Yes, this is Josh. So first, on the Q4 burn rate, we do see some activity pull back in the fourth quarter because, of course, we dropped some rigs in the Eagle Ford. So that's pulling back our Eagle Ford spend. And then also we see a little bit lighter completion quarter in the Haynesville.

是的，這是喬希。因此，首先，關於第四季度的燃燒率，我們確實看到第四季度的一些活動有所回落，因為當然，我們放棄了 Eagle Ford 的一些鑽井平台。所以這拉回了我們在 Eagle Ford 的支出。然後我們還看到 Haynesville 的完工季度有所減少。

So that's why our burn rate in Q4 will look a little bit different than maybe what we saw in the preceding quarter. As we think about 2023 and again, I'll kind of reference year-over-year inflation, we would expect to see the most inflationary pressures in the Haynesville. And so I think you're going to be looking at 15% plus there potentially, assuming we see rig counts stay relatively flat to where we are this year.

所以這就是為什麼我們在第四季度的燃燒率看起來與我們在上一季度看到的有所不同。當我們再次考慮 2023 年時，我將參考同比通脹，我們預計海恩斯維爾的通脹壓力最大。因此，假設我們看到鑽機數量與今年的水平持平，我認為你可能會看到 15% 以上的增長。

In the Marcellus, we expect that to be a little bit more moderated. That basin just tends to be more stable in nature. And so the inflation that we're anticipating there is really going to be in the mid-single digits.

在 Marcellus 中，我們預計會稍微緩和一些。那個盆地在自然界中往往更穩定。因此，我們預期的通貨膨脹率真的會在中等個位數。

Yes, I'll just add that while we haven't given full CapEx guidance yet. We did put dollar per foot expectations for 2023 for both the Haynesville and the Marcellus in our slides today. Yes, that's inclusive of our expectations for inflation.

是的，我只是補充一點，雖然我們還沒有給出完整的資本支出指導。我們確實在今天的幻燈片中給出了海恩斯維爾和馬塞勒斯 2023 年的每英尺預期美元數。是的，這包括我們對通貨膨脹的預期。

The next question comes from Zach Parham with JPMorgan.

下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Zach Parham。

I guess just another follow-up on Doug's question there. You talked about this 10% -- 10% to 15% inflation in '23 if we think about that in the context of the '22 budget, should we just add 10% to 15% on top of that and if so, does that include the impact of the seventh rig in the Haynesville and also any spending associated with the Momentum project.

我想這只是對 Doug 那裡的問題的另一個跟進。如果我們在 22 年預算的背景下考慮這一點，你在 23 年談到了 10% - 10% 到 15% 的通貨膨脹率，我們是否應該在此基礎上再加上 10% 到 15%，如果是的話，這樣做嗎？包括海恩斯維爾第七個鑽井平台的影響以及與 Momentum 項目相關的任何支出。

Well, anything that we were -- I guess maybe on the momentum question specifically, I think anything that we've done in '22, of course, that's going to be an incremental capital expenditure that we would need to layer in. So that would be one clear addition if you're trying to come up with a 2023 estimate.

好吧，我們所做的任何事情——我想可能特別是在動量問題上，我認為我們在 22 年所做的任何事情，當然，這將是我們需要分層的增量資本支出。所以如果你想得出 2023 年的估計值，那將是一個明確的補充。

But generally, we've guided you on activity. So the 5 rigs in the Marcellus, you need to account for the seventh rig in the Haynesville. And again, we've given you some guidance here on cost per foot. And then again, that 2 to 3 rig range in the Eagle Ford. I mean, we'll continue to look at other opportunities.

但總的來說，我們會指導您進行活動。所以 Marcellus 的 5 個鑽井平台，你需要考慮 Haynesville 的第七個鑽井平台。再一次，我們在這里為您提供了一些關於每英尺成本的指導。再一次，Eagle Ford 的 2 到 3 個鑽機範圍。我的意思是，我們將繼續尋找其他機會。

One of the things we highlighted in the presentation today as we were successful in picking up some acreage in the Marcellus. We'll continue to look for opportunities such as that. And if there's more good opportunities such as that, that could also push up capital just a little bit heading into next year.

我們在今天的演講中強調了一件事情，因為我們成功地在馬塞勒斯獲得了一些土地。我們將繼續尋找這樣的機會。如果有更多這樣的好機會，那也可能會在進入明年之前稍微推高資本。

Got it. And then one just on the operational side. I think Nick mentioned that the average well performance would come down marginally in the Marcellus as you do more co-development. Can you just compare the Upper and Lower Marcellus well productivity, while both still clearly have very strong returns, what's the step down in EUR you expect on the upper versus lower?

知道了。然後是運營方面的一個。我認為 Nick 提到，隨著您進行更多的共同開發，Marcellus 的平均油井性能會略有下降。您能否只比較上下馬塞勒斯井的生產率，雖然兩者顯然仍然有非常強勁的回報，但您預計歐元在上層和下層的下降幅度是多少？

Yes. Maybe I'll just stick to what we've disclosed in our presentation, but what we provided you in the deck is an estimate on a 12-month (inaudible) per foot. And what you see there is it's just over 20% reduction on a per foot basis. But what I'll remind you of, though, is we do have the ability to drill longer laterals in the upper.

是的。也許我會堅持我們在演示文稿中披露的內容，但我們在甲板上為您提供的是每英尺 12 個月（聽不清）的估計值。你看到的是每英尺減少了 20% 以上。不過，我要提醒您的是，我們確實有能力在上部鑽探更長的橫向井。

And so that, on an absolute well basis, that starts to offset some of that productivity loss and we can drill longer laterals just simply because there are fewer wells to be navigating around. And that's why we see such an opportunity here and drilling wells that really, really competitive returns.

因此，在絕對井的基礎上，這開始抵消部分生產力損失，我們可以鑽更長的水平井，僅僅是因為要繞過的井更少。這就是為什麼我們在這裡看到這樣的機會，並鑽探真正具有競爭力的回報的油井。

In addition to that, I'll just add something that's not necessarily layered in here explicitly which is with the upper and co-developing it with the lower, we can put more wells on a pad, and that creates additional capital efficiencies, which we think can only further enhance the returns that we've specified in the deck today.

除此之外，我將添加一些不一定在這裡明確分層的東西，即與上層一起開發並與下層共同開發，我們可以在墊上放置更多的井，這會產生額外的資本效率，我們think 只能進一步提高我們今天在套牌中指定的回報。

(Operator Instructions) The next question comes from Charles Meade with Johnson Rice.

（操作員說明）下一個問題來自 Charles Meade 和 Johnson Rice。

Good morning, Nick, you and your team. You hear me?

早上好，尼克，你和你的團隊。你聽到了嗎？

Yes, Charles. How are you?

是的，查爾斯。你好嗎？

I'm fine. I wanted to pick up on the -- on that upper versus lower. Maybe in a slightly different direction. I think that this is the first time, at least I can recall you guys comparing the productivity, and that's really helpful, what you put on that slide.

我很好。我想了解 - 上層與下層。也許在一個稍微不同的方向。我認為這是第一次，至少我記得你們比較了生產力，這真的很有幫助，你們放在幻燈片上的內容。

But I'm curious, my baseline, really the only other one other operator that has talked about the upper versus lower Northeast PA. And their number was more like the upper bean 70% as productive. And my understanding was that, that was primarily a function of less thickness in the upper. But I'm wondering if you can talk about if -- your number, I think, works out to 77% if that number has changed over time or if it changes in the XY plane over your geography? Just give us a little of your kind of history and outlook on that upper versus lower.

但我很好奇，我的基線，真的是唯一一個談論過東北 PA 上部和下部的其他運營商。而且他們的數量更像上層豆子 70% 那樣富有成效。我的理解是，這主要是因為鞋面厚度較薄。但我想知道你是否可以談談——我認為你的數字是否會隨著時間的推移而變化，或者它是否在你的地理區域的 XY 平面上發生變化？給我們一些你的歷史和對上層與下層的看法。

Well, maybe just one thing, Charles, this is Josh, that maybe to consider is the productivity decline that you see from the lower to the upper will be dependent upon the spacing at which the lower was developed. And so you do expect to encounter some depletion, and that depletion will vary on a number of things.

好吧，也許只有一件事，查爾斯，這是喬希，也許要考慮的是你看到的從低到高的生產力下降將取決於低層開發的間距。所以你確實預計會遇到一些消耗，而這種消耗會因許多因素而異。

Obviously, your overall thickness, but also the thickness of the Cherry Valley limestone, which is the barrier between the two but really how that lower was developed, the space unit which was developed at could lead you to a lower productivity. And we do know there are some operators to the east of us as they stepped into the upper they developed the asset, a little bit tighter spacing.

顯然，你的整體厚度，還有櫻桃谷石灰岩的厚度，這是兩者之間的障礙，但實際上它是如何開發的，開發的空間單位可能會導致你降低生產力。而且我們確實知道在我們東部有一些運營商，因為他們進入了他們開發資產的上層，間距有點緊。

We've been a little bit wider throughout our history, developing the lower. And so that's why we have a maybe a little bit advantaged expectation with the upper performance going forward.

在我們的整個歷史中，我們一直在擴大一些，發展較低的。因此，這就是為什麼我們對未來的更高性能抱有一點點優勢的期望。

Got it. That is helpful, Josh. And then shifting on to the Haynesville, maybe kind of -- this may be more for Nick. Nick, if I think back to our last -- the last quarterly call, you were talking about the possibility of an eighth rig in '23. And if I'm understanding your commentary right, that remains a possibility, but it seems like it's more of a distant possibility or maybe a second half '23 possibility at this point? Do we have the right sense?

知道了。這很有幫助，喬希。然後轉移到海恩斯維爾，也許有點——這可能更適合尼克。尼克，如果我回想起我們上次——上一次季度電話會議，你在談論 23 年第八次鑽井平台的可能性。如果我理解你的評論是正確的，那仍然是一種可能性，但它似乎是一種遙遠的可能性，或者在這一點上可能是 23 年下半年的可能性？我們有正確的感覺嗎？

I think you do, Charles. I mean, I think I would just call it an option. And one of the things that we wanted to communicate around that is that we wanted to make sure we had midstream capacity, takeaway capacity in the gathering and treating space should we get to a place where we want the eighth rig.

我想你知道，查爾斯。我的意思是，我想我會把它稱為一個選項。我們想要傳達的一件事是，如果我們到達我們想要第八台鑽機的地方，我們想確保我們有中游能力，收集和處理空間的外賣能力。

Look, over time, as LNG export capacity grows and there's incremental demand out of the Haynesville I'd love to see us today, and I'd love to see us more than that as we get into the second half of the decade. We certainly have the inventory and the great assets to justify acceleration when there is demand that's not being met.

看，隨著時間的推移，隨著液化天然氣出口能力的增長以及海恩斯維爾的需求增加，我今天很想見到我們，而且在進入本世紀下半葉時，我更希望看到我們。當需求未得到滿足時，我們當然擁有庫存和大量資產來證明加速是合理的。

But as we sit looking at the market today, we don't really anticipate that an eighth rig would be needed during 2023. Now if it turns out that it is needed, then great, we'll be ready, and we can add a rig and we have the full setup to do it. But right now, we're not expecting to go to eighth in 2023.

但是當我們今天坐下來觀察市場時，我們並不真正預計到 2023 年將需要第八個鑽井平台。現在如果事實證明需要它，那就太好了，我們會準備好，我們可以添加一個鑽機，我們有完整的設置來做到這一點。但現在，我們預計 2023 年不會升至第八。

The next question comes from Subhasish Chandra with Benchmark.

下一個問題來自 Benchmark 的 Subhasish Chandra。

Nick, I appreciate the Eagle Ford sale proceeds is a bit hypothetical, but I still want to ask you on the debt reduction to keep sort of calibrate the debt ratio there. You have a very healthy working capital surplus if you include that in that debt calculation, and if you can sort of give maybe a rough number of what the debt reduction piece might be, maybe you don't -- you can't really do that because it's too hypothetical.

尼克，我明白 Eagle Ford 的銷售收益有點假設，但我仍然想問你關於債務削減的問題，以保持對債務比率的校準。如果你把它包括在債務計算中，你就有一個非常健康的營運資本盈餘，如果你能大概給出債務減少部分的大概數字，也許你不——你真的做不到那是因為它太假設了。

But secondly, I guess on the return of capital, related to the Eagle Ford sale. Have you considered a special dividend that might accompany the sale? Or is that hypothetical as well?

但其次，我猜想與鷹福特的出售有關的資本回報。您是否考慮過可能伴隨出售的特別股息？或者這也是假設？

Well, Subhasish, this is Mohit. Thanks for those questions. On the first one, as Nick said before, the intent is to let the process -- the sales process play out and see what kind of proceeds we get from them. And I'll maybe go back to what was said earlier. At a very high level, the intent is to pay down some debt.

嗯，Subhasish，這是 Mohit。謝謝你的問題。第一個，正如尼克之前所說，目的是讓流程——銷售流程發揮作用，看看我們從中獲得什麼樣的收益。我可能會回到之前所說的內容。在一個非常高的層面上，意圖是償還一些債務。

And at this point, we would not get into the specifics of how much that would be. Overall, I would say, we are very, very happy with the shape that the balance sheet is in. As you can see from the materials, we are saying Net debt-to-EBITDA is 0.4 turns. We are very comfortable with that. The intent behind it is when we're selling a producing property and the loss of EBITDA has to mirror the overall pro forma debt level.

在這一點上，我們不會詳細說明這將是多少。總的來說，我想說，我們對資產負債表的形狀非常、非常滿意。正如您從材料中看到的那樣，我們說淨債務與 EBITDA 的比率為 0.4 倍。我們對此很滿意。其背後的意圖是當我們出售生產資產時，EBITDA 的損失必須反映整體備考債務水平。

So we will pay down some of it, but the specifics of that will come at a different point of time. On your second part of your question about a special dividend, the same logic applies. I think once the bids are in and once we recognize which path we are taking, then we'd be happy to share more details around that.

因此，我們將支付其中的一部分，但具體細節將在不同的時間點公佈。關於特別股息問題的第二部分，同樣的邏輯適用。我認為一旦出價，一旦我們認識到我們正在走哪條路，那麼我們很樂意分享更多相關細節。

Yes. Fair enough.

是的。很公平。

One, just obvious connection, Subhasish, I would make is that as we talk about the fact that we don't see structural supply demand growth for the gas market until at the earliest 2024, that could mean soft gas prices, soft gas prices can lead to weaker equity prices just as a gut reaction.

第一，很明顯的聯繫，Subhasish，我要說的是，當我們談論這樣一個事實時，我們最早要到 2024 年才會看到天然氣市場的結構性供應需求增長，這可能意味著天然氣價格疲軟，天然氣價格疲軟可能導致股價走弱只是一種直覺反應。

Should that happen, we think our stock would be even more undervalued than it is today. So we certainly don't mind the dynamics that we would receive a bunch of cash from this transaction and be poised to acquire our stock, if you will, if it's falling due to macro, which we would, at that point, believe is short term in nature with growth in demand coming.

如果發生這種情況，我們認為我們的股票會比現在更被低估。因此，我們當然不介意我們將從這筆交易中獲得大量現金並準備收購我們的股票的動態，如果你願意的話，如果它因宏觀經濟而下跌，我們當時認為這是空頭隨著需求增長的到來。

So we like the setup of thinking about the fact that there's volatility in the near term of natural gas prices, that volatility can obviously lead to volatility in equities, and we show a lot of cash.

因此，我們喜歡考慮天然氣價格近期波動這一事實的設置，這種波動顯然會導致股票波動，而且我們展示了大量現金。

Yes. That will be a good place to be. A follow-up is on -- could you just remind us about your bid week versus spot. For fourth quarter, I guess we got October, November, a bit weaken already. So how much of your 4Q is locked in at this point?

是的。那將是一個好地方。後續行動正在進行中——您能否提醒我們您的出價週與現貨。對於第四季度，我想我們在 10 月、11 月已經有點疲軟了。那麼此時您的 4Q 有多少被鎖定了？

Yes. So October and November are pretty well locked in. So when we give our basics expectations, the biggest floating piece there is going to be December. We did lean a little bit heavier on first of month for November than we typically do. We see the forecast for warmer weather in the East Coast through at least the first half of the month.

是的。所以 10 月和 11 月已經很好地鎖定了。所以當我們給出基本預期時，最大的浮動部分將是 12 月。我們在 11 月的第一天確實比往常傾斜了一點。我們看到至少本月上半月東海岸天氣轉暖的預報。

This week, there's the first reports of the potential of cold fronts showing up -- but -- and it's pretty early and supply is plenty robust. So we leaned a little bit harder on first amount to pricing for the month of November.

本週，第一份關於冷鋒可能出現的報告——但是——而且還為時過早，而且供應非常強勁。因此，我們更加傾向於 11 月份的定價。

Excellent.

出色的。

The next question comes from Nicholas Pope with Seaport Research. Good morning, everyone.

下一個問題來自 Seaport Research 的 Nicholas Pope。大家，早安。

I had a question on kind of the post quarter share repurchases. I think you want to comment the repurchased 400 million shares in October. Just looking at kind of the math, it seems like with the dividend and with kind of the cash flows where they are that you probably use some debt to repurchase those shares.

我有一個關於季度後股票回購的問題。我想你要評論10月份回購的4億股。只是看一下數學，似乎在股息和現金流量的情況下，你可能會用一些債務來回購這些股票。

So I was curious if that was kind of a choice because it was a creditor that had some availability, there's a block trade -- or if that -- just kind of the timing of kind of when the dividend is going to be paid out in December versus kind of where everything is? Just kind of curious about that big share repurchase that you commented on.

所以我很好奇這是否是一種選擇，因為它是一個有一定可用性的債權人，有一個大宗交易——或者如果是這樣——只是一種支付股息的時間十二月與一切都在哪裡？只是對你評論的那個大的股票回購感到好奇。

Yes. So Nick, this is Mohit. You're right, the trade was done after the quarter closed. We've been clear all along that the intent of having a $2 billion share buyback, share and warrant buyback plan is to have availability that in case one of our creditors at emergence if they want to sell down, then we are ready to provide a bid.

是的。尼克，這是莫希特。你是對的，交易是在季度結束後完成的。我們一直很清楚，制定 20 億美元的股票回購、股票和認股權證回購計劃的目的是要有可用性，以防我們的債權人之一在出現時想要出售，那麼我們準備好提供出價。

And as was said earlier in the call, more than 80% of the buybacks we have done are former creditors, and it helps remove the overhang of the perceived overhang from these former creditors. And we've been very pleased with our ability to be able to do about $1.1 billion of buybacks and well ahead of schedule, and we still have about $900 million and until the end of 2023 to prosecute the rest of the program.

正如電話會議早些時候所說，我們所做的回購中有 80% 以上是前債權人，這有助於消除這些前債權人認為的過剩債務。我們對能夠提前完成約 11 億美元的回購感到非常滿意，我們仍然有大約 9 億美元的資金可以在 2023 年底之前執行該計劃的其餘部分。

Got it. I appreciate that. And then as you look at that credit facility, if you're going to kind of add on to that, it looked like I think you all commented that something 6% -- 6.6% kind of average interest rate in the credit facility in the third quarter. What's the timing of that? Is that -- it's obviously coming out of the bankruptcy is a little higher than kind of where your peers or even where your debt metrics would kind of say you could kind of get that too.

知道了。我很感激。然後，當您查看該信貸額度時，如果您要對此進行補充，我想你們都評論說美國信貸額度的平均利率為 6% - 6.6%第三季度。那是什麼時候？是嗎——它顯然是從破產中走出來的，比你的同行甚至你的債務指標表明你也可以得到的要高一點。

So what's the timing and the ability to kind of move around the credit facility kind of go to a more traditional facility in the next -- in the near term?

那麼，在短期內，將信貸機制轉移到更傳統的機制的時機和能力是什麼？

Yes. So thanks for that question also. The interest rate that you referenced, yes, it obviously goes off of a pricing grid depending on how much utilization that we have of the credit facility. We carefully monitor the conditions and we -- the intent would be to try and refinance the credit facility before it becomes current.

是的。所以也感謝這個問題。您提到的利率，是的，它顯然不在定價範圍內，具體取決於我們對信貸額度的利用率。我們會仔細監控情況，我們的目的是在信貸機制生效之前嘗試對其進行再融資。

So it matures it will become current next year. So we are looking into ways of trying to refinance the credit facility prior to it becoming current. And so depending on what happens in the macro conditions, the Fed is obviously increasing rates, as you know. But given the shape that the company is in our engagement with different lenders, we feel pretty optimistic about being able to do it in a timely manner.

所以它成熟了，明年就會成為流行的。因此，我們正在研究在信貸機制生效之前嘗試對其進行再融資的方法。因此，如您所知，根據宏觀環境中發生的情況，美聯儲顯然正在加息。但考慮到公司與不同貸方的接觸形式，我們對能夠及時完成這件事感到非常樂觀。

That's really all I had. I think everything else has been asked. I appreciate the time, everyone.

這真的是我的全部。我想其他的都被問過了。我感謝大家的時間。

Thank you. The next question comes from Phillips Johnston with Capital One.

謝謝你。下一個問題來自 Capital One 的 Phillips Johnston。

Just one more on the cost inflation front. Nick, you referenced Slide 12, which is really helpful. It looks like you guys are anticipating, Haynesville well costs can move up to a little over $1,600 per foot on a blended basis next year. What are the factors that could sort of move that number either higher or lower? And can you maybe give us a sense of what percentage of that is essentially locked in from a pricing perspective?

還有一個關於成本通脹方面的問題。尼克，你引用了幻燈片 12，這真的很有幫助。看起來你們都在期待，明年 Haynesville 的油井成本在混合基礎上可能會上升到每英尺 1,600 美元多一點。有哪些因素可以使該數字更高或更低？你能否讓我們了解從定價角度來看，其中有多少百分比基本上被鎖定了？

Yes. Philip, this is Josh. I think some of the risk that we see to inflation is diesel is one of them that we're seeing shortages really across the country right now. And we'll need to continue to monitor that and see that how it plays out. That affects our much cost on the drilling side, has an implication on our transportation costs for things such as proppant. So that's one that we'll continue to monitor closely.

是的。菲利普，這是喬希。我認為我們看到的通貨膨脹的一些風險是柴油，這是我們現在在全國范圍內真正看到短缺的風險之一。我們需要繼續監控它，看看它是如何發揮作用的。這會影響我們在鑽井方面的大量成本，對我們支撐劑等物品的運輸成本產生影響。因此，我們將繼續密切關注這一點。

The demand for rigs, pumping services obviously remains quite high with most high-spec rigs that being utilized today. So if that demand were to remain high through the course of the year, obviously, that may enable those providers to continue to push on pricing.

對於當今使用的大多數高規格鑽井平台，對鑽井平台、泵送服務的需求顯然仍然很高。因此，如果這一需求在一年中保持高位，顯然，這可能會使這些供應商繼續推動定價。

We've been very active in the second half of the year and specifically in the third and early parts of the fourth quarter where we've been working with our existing suppliers and it may look like us taking on a little bit higher cost today but providing some pricing certainty and protection from additional inflation in 2023.

我們在今年下半年非常活躍，特別是在第三季度和第四季度初期，我們一直在與現有供應商合作，看起來我們今天承擔的成本有點高，但為 2023 年的額外通脹提供一定的定價確定性和保護。

And so that's something that we think is a good indicator of how we can preserve it. As far as an absolute percentage, I'm not really in a position to go down that path with you today. But the bulk of our primary services being on the frac on the drilling side have been locked in for next year.

因此，我們認為這是一個很好的指標，表明我們可以如何保護它。就絕對百分比而言，我今天真的不能和你一起走那條路。但是，我們在鑽探方面的壓裂方面的大部分主要服務已鎖定在明年。

Okay. Great. I appreciate the color. I also wanted to ask just about potential timing of ultimately achieving investment grade and just how important that is to the company. I know it's not something that you can control directly and you clearly have the financial metrics already.

好的。偉大的。我很欣賞這種顏色。我還想問一下最終達到投資級別的潛在時間以及這對公司有多重要。我知道這不是你可以直接控制的，而且你顯然已經有了財務指標。

So based on your conversations with the agencies, is the limiting factor mainly just a function of scale? And also, just what's the overall path that they want to see? And how important is investment-grade rating to management and the Board?

那麼根據你與機構的談話，限制因素主要只是規模的函數嗎？而且，他們希望看到的總體路徑是什麼？投資級評級對管理層和董事會有多重要？

Yes, Philip, this is Mohit. Investment grade is important to us. As you start thinking about the LNG strategy that we have in play, being investment grade would be extremely valuable in that scenario. We are actively engaged with all 3 rating agencies.

是的，菲利普，這是莫希特。投資等級對我們很重要。當您開始考慮我們正在實施的液化天然氣戰略時，在這種情況下成為投資級別將非常有價值。我們積極與所有 3 家評級機構合作。

There's -- as you referenced, the credit metrics are obviously investment-grade quality already. There is an element of seasoning and showing a track record of performance, which we clearly are demonstrating. So the tone of that conversation is great.

有——正如你所提到的，信用指標顯然已經達到了投資級質量。有一個調味元素和展示業績記錄，我們顯然正在展示這一點。所以那次談話的基調很棒。

The engagement is there. And as we referenced, S&P just last month, upgraded us to BB so we are seeing green shoots of that notch upgrade that we are seeing, and we are a couple of notches away from getting to investment grade, but we feel confident that we are on the right trajectory, and it's kind of little bit of a matter of time to see that, but we remain confident that we'll get there eventually. Thank you.

訂婚就在那裡。正如我們所提到的，標準普爾上個月剛剛將我們升級為 BB，因此我們看到了我們所看到的等級升級的萌芽，我們距離達到投資等級還有幾個等級，但我們有信心我們是在正確的軌道上，看到這一點只是時間問題，但我們仍然相信我們最終會到達那裡。謝謝你。

And the last question today will come from Matt Portillo with TPH.

今天的最後一個問題將來自 TPH 的 Matt Portillo。

Just a question in the Haynesville. I appreciate the color on Slide 12 around the cost difference between the Haynesville and the Bossier. I assume a little bit of that might be apples and oranges as you've got some shallower targets in the Haynesville further north in the basin. But could you talk a bit about the cost difference between the 2 horizons and then if we head into a lower commodity price environment in '23, '24, is there some potential to cut back on the Bossier development? Or should we consider that necessary from a co-development perspective moving forward?

只是海恩斯維爾的一個問題。我很欣賞幻燈片 12 上關於 Haynesville 和 Bossier 之間成本差異的顏色。我假設其中一點點可能是蘋果和橙子，因為你在盆地北部的海恩斯維爾有一些較淺的目標。但是你能談談這兩個地平線之間的成本差異嗎，然後如果我們在 23 年、24 年進入較低的商品價格環境，是否有可能削減 Bossier 的發展？或者我們是否應該從共同發展的角度考慮有必要向前推進？

The Bossier just in general, is a more challenging formation for us. I mean it is shallower, but lithology, the rock type there does make it a little bit more difficult from a drilling and a completion standpoint. And so that's ultimately what ends up driving some of your cost differences.

總的來說，Bossier 對我們來說是一個更具挑戰性的陣型。我的意思是它更淺，但是從鑽井和完井的角度來看，那裡的岩性和岩石類型確實使它變得有點困難。因此，這最終會導致您的一些成本差異。

At this point, I don't think we would pivot away from that. We think that's a really important interval for us to continue to develop. Obviously, it represents a relatively modest part of the program, but we think it's important to continue to work down a learning curve within that particular zone, continue to extend the limits of it and what we see it just simply as we think about the long-term optimization of the asset.

在這一點上，我認為我們不會偏離這一點。我們認為這是我們繼續發展的一個非常重要的時間間隔。顯然，它代表了程序中相對適度的部分，但我們認為重要的是繼續在該特定區域內沿著學習曲線前進，繼續擴展它的限制以及我們在考慮長期時所看到的內容-資產的長期優化。

So we do think there's some opportunities to get better. It's probably one that we benefited the most through the learnings with Bain. They were more active in that interval. And we just think there's a lot of efficiency still to be gained. And so that's hopefully a story we're talking about next year.

所以我們確實認為有一些機會可以變得更好。這可能是我們通過與貝恩的學習獲益最多的一個。他們在那段時間裡更加活躍。我們只是認為還有很多效率有待提高。因此，希望這就是我們明年要談論的故事。

Perfect. And then as my second question on gas marketing, just curious the momentum pipeline brings a unique opportunity here with TPS. We've obviously seen some industry participants talk about net 0 or carbon neutral oil marketing going forward and potentially achieving a premium. Just curious on the gas side.

完美的。然後作為我關於天然氣營銷的第二個問題，只是好奇動量管道在這里為 TPS 帶來了獨特的機會。我們顯然已經看到一些行業參與者談論未來的淨 0 或碳中和石油營銷，並可能實現溢價。只是對氣體方面感到好奇。

I know you've talked a bit about RSG getting a very small premium at the moment. But if you guys are able to tie kind of your gas marketing opportunities with CCS and then obviously working towards the LNG contracts, do you think we could see a more meaningful uplift to your gas pricing as we step forward with all these projects in the queue?

我知道你已經談過一些關於 RSG 目前獲得非常小的溢價。但是，如果你們能夠將你們的天然氣營銷機會與 CCS 聯繫起來，然後顯然致力於液化天然氣合同，你們認為隨著我們推進所有這些項目，我們會看到你們的天然氣價格有更有意義的提升嗎？ ？

Matt, that's a great question. And there's no question in my mind that we should see that. I think it's going to take a bit of time for it to evolve. What we are seeing in our early discussions with LNG off-takers in Europe and Asia is that they are extremely interested in the carbon footprint of the gas that they're buying.

馬特，這是一個很好的問題。毫無疑問，我們應該看到這一點。我認為它需要一些時間才能發展。我們在與歐洲和亞洲液化天然氣承購商的早期討論中看到，他們對所購買天然氣的碳足跡非常感興趣。

They're asking a lot of questions about it. They're wanting to understand what being responsibly sourced gas means they're wanting to understand the overall footprint. When we flash stats like the fact that we have a 0.02 methane intensity from our gas production. It certainly gets the attention of international gas buyers.

他們問了很多關於它的問題。他們想要了解什麼是負責任採購的天然氣意味著他們想要了解整體足跡。當我們閃現統計數據時，例如我們的天然氣生產產生的甲烷強度為 0.02。它肯定會引起國際天然氣買家的注意。

We think it will increasingly get the attention of domestic gas buyers as well. I'd remind you that today, there's no tax or structural incentive for buyers of gas to pay more for a lower emissions footprint gas molecule. That may come. We think it should probably come at some point. There is the talk, of course, in the IRA about the methane tax and what that will look like over time and how that will be -- how that will show up in the way that producers develop their assets is something that we're going to be keenly interested in.

我們認為它也將越來越受到國內天然氣買家的關注。我要提醒你，今天，沒有稅收或結構性激勵措施讓天然氣買家為排放量較低的氣體分子支付更多費用。那可能會來。我們認為它可能會在某個時候出現。當然，在 IRA 中有關於甲烷稅的討論，以及隨著時間的推移會是什麼樣子以及它將如何——這將如何以生產者開發資產的方式出現，這是我們正在做的事情對。感興趣。

We think with the footprint that we have we are very well positioned relative to that potential tax. So we think this is an area that will evolve pretty significantly as the world recognizes the huge need for growing natural gas production and the big demand that really does exist out there today and should continue to grow as the world seeks to have more of the affordable, reliable and lower carbon energy that solves some of the biggest challenges facing the economy today.

我們認為，憑藉我們擁有的足跡，相對於潛在的稅收，我們處於非常有利的位置。因此，我們認為這是一個將發生重大變化的領域，因為世界認識到對天然氣產量增長的巨大需求以及當今確實存在的巨大需求，並且隨著世界尋求擁有更多負擔得起的天然氣而應該繼續增長，可靠且低碳的能源，解決了當今經濟面臨的一些最大挑戰。

All right. Well, I think that's the last question we had this morning. So I want to thank everybody for the time. Just to reiterate, we are extremely excited about the setup we see. We have worked hard to position this company, our portfolio and our execution for the market conditions that we see today.

好的。好吧，我認為這是我們今天早上的最後一個問題。所以我要感謝大家的時間。重申一下，我們對所看到的設置感到非常興奮。我們努力為這家公司、我們的投資組合和我們的執行定位我們今天看到的市場條件。

We know there will be plenty of volatility in these market conditions, and we think we are uniquely positioned to take advantage regardless of where that volatility heads in the near term. And then certainly, with the structural tailwinds that we see to supply demand for natural gas in the second half of this decade.

我們知道在這些市場條件下會有很大的波動，我們認為無論波動在短期內走向何方，我們都處於獨特的優勢。然後當然，隨著我們看到的結構性順風將在本十年的下半年滿足對天然氣的需求。

Again, just as I said a minute ago, we think that the production we're delivering to market goes a long way to solving the biggest challenges facing the economy today. And every employee at this company is proud to produce the energy that delivers reliable, affordable and lower carbon solutions for energy generation around the world.

同樣，正如我剛才所說，我們認為我們向市場提供的產品對解決當今經濟面臨的最大挑戰大有幫助。該公司的每一位員工都為生產的能源感到自豪，這些能源為世界各地的能源生產提供可靠、經濟且低碳的解決方案。

We think the demand for what we do only grows from here and the best operators seek to benefit the most. Look forward to continuing the conversation with you all as we move to the end of the year. Thanks very much.

我們認為對我們所做工作的需求只會從這裡開始增長，最好的運營商會尋求最大的利益。期待在年底前繼續與大家對話。非常感謝。

The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.

會議現已結束。感謝您參加今天的演講。您現在可以斷開連接。