Chesapeake Energy Corp (CHK) 2023 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, and welcome to the Chesapeake Energy First Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) Please note this event is being recorded.

早上好，歡迎來到切薩皮克能源 2023 年第一季度收益電話會議。 （操作員說明）請注意正在記錄此事件。

I would now like to turn the conference over to Chris Ayres, Vice President of Investor Relations and Treasurer. Please go ahead.

我現在想將會議轉交給投資者關係副總裁兼財務主管 Chris Ayres。請繼續。

Thank you, Andrea. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining our call today to discuss Chesapeake's First Quarter 2023 financial and operating results. Hopefully, you've had a chance to review our press release and the updated materials that we posted to our website yesterday.

謝謝你，安德里亞。大家早上好，感謝您今天加入我們的電話會議，討論切薩皮克 2023 年第一季度的財務和經營業績。希望您有機會閱讀我們昨天發佈到我們網站上的新聞稿和更新材料。

During this morning's call, we will be making forward-looking statements, which consist of statements that cannot be confirmed by reference to existing information, including statements regarding our beliefs, goals, expectations, forecasts, projections and future performance and the assumptions underlying such statements. Please note that there are a number of factors that will cause actual results to differ materially from our forward-looking statements, including the factors identified and discussed in our press release yesterday and in other SEC filings.

在今天上午的電話會議上，我們將做出前瞻性陳述，其中包括無法通過參考現有信息確認的陳述，包括關於我們的信念、目標、預期、預測、預測和未來業績的陳述以及此類陳述所依據的假設.請注意，有許多因素會導致實際結果與我們的前瞻性陳述產生重大差異，包括我們昨天的新聞稿和其他 SEC 文件中確定和討論的因素。

Please recognize that as except is required by applicable law, we undertake no duty to update any forward-looking statements, and you should not place undue reliance on such statements. We may also refer to some non-GAAP financial measures, which will help facilitate comparisons across periods and with peers. For any non-GAAP measure, we use a reconciliation to the nearest corresponding GAAP measures that can be found on our website.

請注意，除適用法律要求外，我們不承擔更新任何前瞻性陳述的義務，您不應過分依賴此類陳述。我們還可以參考一些非 GAAP 財務指標，這將有助於促進跨時期和與同行的比較。對於任何非 GAAP 衡量標準，我們使用可在我們網站上找到的最接近的相應 GAAP 衡量標准進行調節。

With me today are Nick Dell'Osso; Mohit Singh and Josh Viets. Nick will give a brief overview of our results, and then we will open up the teleconference to Q&A. So with that, thank you again.

今天和我在一起的是 Nick Dell'Osso； Mohit Singh 和 Josh Viets。尼克將簡要概述我們的結果，然後我們將打開電話會議進行問答。因此，再次感謝您。

And I now turn it over to Nick.

我現在把它交給尼克。

Good morning, and thank you all for joining our call. I'd like to take a few minutes to highlight our strong quarter of execution and some other recent accomplishments, and then I'll get right to your questions.

早上好，感謝大家加入我們的電話會議。我想花幾分鐘時間強調一下我們強勁的季度執行力和其他一些最近的成就，然後我會回答你的問題。

Our year is off to a strong start. We remain focused on executing on our strategic pillars through our disciplined capital program, which maximizes returns and deliver sustainable free cash flow to fund our peer-leading dividend and buyback program. Operationally, we turned in line 53 wells, seeing solid productivity in both the Haynesville and Marcellus with Haynesville IP90s having improved about 8% from 2022, benefiting from new gas gathering offloads and incremental treating capacity put in place in 2022.

我們的一年有了一個良好的開端。我們仍然專注於通過我們嚴格的資本計劃執行我們的戰略支柱，該計劃最大限度地提高回報並提供可持續的自由現金流，為我們同行領先的股息和回購計劃提供資金。在運營方面，我們轉產了 53 口井，看到 Haynesville 和 Marcellus 的穩定生產力比 2022 年提高了約 8%，這得益於 2022 年新的集氣卸載和增加的處理能力。

CapEx is slightly ahead of expectations on the heels of very strong execution from our drilling and completion teams where we drilled 3 of the 5 fastest all-time footage per day wells in the geologically complex southern portion of our Haynesville acreage position. We averaged 690 feet per day in the quarter on this acreage which is 30% faster than our closest offset operator.

在我們的鑽井和完井團隊非常強大的執行力之後，資本支出略高於預期，我們在 Haynesville 種植面積位置的地質複雜的南部鑽探了 5 口歷史上最快進尺井中的 3 口。本季度我們在該面積上平均每天 690 英尺，比我們最近的偏移操作員快 30%。

In addition, we've deployed a continuous pumping wellhead technology that enabled our teams to pump a record 36 consecutive hours on a Haynesville frac. In the face of a volatile market, we generated [$315 million] of free cash flow, about $240 million when adjusted for asset sales, which will translate to a total dividend of $1.18 per share for the quarter. When combined with our buyback program, year-to-date, we've already returned more than $250 million to shareholders.

此外，我們還部署了連續抽水井口技術，使我們的團隊能夠在 Haynesville 壓裂中連續抽水 36 小時，創下歷史新高。面對動蕩的市場，我們產生了 [3.15 億美元] 的自由現金流，經資產出售調整後約為 2.4 億美元，這將轉化為本季度每股 1.18 美元的總股息。結合我們的回購計劃，年初至今，我們已經向股東返還了超過 2.5 億美元。

We also continue to make important progress on our path to be LNG-ready and connect our production to international markets and pricing. Our Gunvor agreement is a great example of our approach to leverage our operational and financial strengths to capture a meaningful share of the incremental LNG capacity coming online by 2025 and beyond. The agreement will ultimately provide up to 2 million tons of LNG per annum indexed to JKM, an important first step for Chesapeake.

我們還在為液化天然氣做好準備並將我們的生產與國際市場和定價聯繫起來的道路上繼續取得重要進展。我們的 Gunvor 協議是一個很好的例子，說明我們如何利用我們的運營和財務優勢，在 2025 年及以後上線的新增液化天然氣產能中佔據重要份額。該協議最終將每年向 JKM 提供多達 200 萬噸液化天然氣，這是切薩皮克重要的第一步。

As market volatility continues to be top of mind for investors, we're very pleased with our position at this point in the year. As I've said before, Chesapeake is built to thrive in this environment. This starts with the strength of our balance sheet, which has only gotten stronger with the closing of our 2 initial Eagle Ford sales for $2.8 billion. As of April 30, we have $1.2 billion of cash on hand and greater than $3 billion of available liquidity. This cash is available to fund our ongoing buyback program, under which we purchased another 1 million shares since our last call bringing our total buyback under this authorization to greater than $1.1 billion with $850 million remaining.

由於市場波動仍然是投資者最關心的問題，我們對今年此時的狀況感到非常滿意。正如我之前所說，切薩皮克是為在這種環境中茁壯成長而建造的。這始於我們資產負債表的實力，隨著我們以 28 億美元的價格完成 2 次 Eagle Ford 的初始銷售，資產負債表才變得更加強大。截至 4 月 30 日，我們手頭有 12 億美元現金和超過 30 億美元的可用流動資金。這筆現金可用於為我們正在進行的回購計劃提供資金，根據該計劃，自我們上次電話會議以來，我們又購買了 100 萬股股票，使我們在此授權下的回購總額超過 11 億美元，剩餘 8.5 億美元。

We remain actively engaged with other parties regarding the remainder of our Eagle Ford position, which is primarily in the rich gas portion of the play. We're pleased to have recently received a Fitch credit rating upgrade to BB+ with a positive outlook. We are now at 1 notch below investment grade with Fitch, we attributed the strength of our scale, conservative financial policy and cash optionality is foundational to our continued rating improvement.

我們將繼續積極與其他各方就我們在鷹福特的剩餘位置進行接觸，該位置主要位於該區域的富氣部分。我們很高興最近獲得惠譽信用評級升級至 BB+，前景樂觀。我們現在比惠譽的投資等級低 1 個等級，我們將我們的規模實力、保守的財務政策和現金選擇權歸因於我們持續提高評級的基礎。

Turning to our capital program. As you saw, our capital came in on the low end of guidance as we dropped a rig in the Haynesville and a frac crew in both the Haynesville and Marcellus. Based on the midpoints of our 2Q guidance, we expect D&C capital to decline approximately 10% and natural gas production from the Marcellus and Haynesville to decline approximately 5% quarter-over-quarter. This decline was part of our plan for the year, which is why we reiterated our full year capital and production guidance today.

轉向我們的資本計劃。正如你所看到的，我們的資本處於指導的低端，因為我們在海恩斯維爾放棄了一個鑽井平台，在海恩斯維爾和馬塞勒斯都放棄了壓裂工作人員。根據我們第二季度指引的中點，我們預計 D&C 資本將下降約 10%，Marcellus 和 Haynesville 的天然氣產量將環比下降約 5%。這種下降是我們今年計劃的一部分，這就是我們今天重申全年資本和生產指導的原因。

We will maintain our disciplined approach to executing our capital program in the year ahead, reducing an additional rig in Haynesville and Marcellus in the third quarter, as previously announced. We believe our financial flexibility is a competitive strength, and we intend to use it. We were built to thrive in all markets, including this low gas price environment, and we continue to adjust our program as warranted by market conditions.

正如之前宣布的那樣，我們將在未來一年保持嚴格的方法來執行我們的資本計劃，並在第三季度減少海恩斯維爾和馬塞勒斯的額外鑽井平台。我們相信我們的財務靈活性是一種競爭優勢，我們打算利用它。我們的目標是在所有市場中蓬勃發展，包括這種低油價環境，我們將繼續根據市場情況調整我們的計劃。

Despite the current market volatility, which we do expect to persist, thanks to the premium rock returns and runway of our portfolio, our best-in-class execution, pristine balance sheet and the added financial flexibility provided by our Eagle Ford asset sales, our confidence in the strength of our long-term outlook remains unchanged.

儘管目前市場波動，我們確實預計這種波動會持續存在，但由於我們投資組合的高回報率和跑道、我們一流的執行、原始的資產負債表以及我們的 Eagle Ford 資產出售提供的額外財務靈活性，我們的對我們長期前景的信心保持不變。

I'd like to now turn the call over to questions.

我現在想把電話轉給問題。

(Operator Instructions) And our first question comes from Doug Leggate of Bank of America.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自美國銀行的 Doug Leggate。

Nick, I want to ask you first about your comments in the prepared remarks or actually in your press release about being prepared to adjust activity. And then you just talked about you've kept your guidance and your CapEx guidance unchanged. So can you walk through what it would take for you to make those adjustments? I'm assuming lower activity or perhaps slow things down some, whether it be capital or choking wells or whatever, you could walk us through that? And maybe an add-on to that, what are you seeing in your nonoperated activity as well. Is there any sign of things slowing down, particularly in the Haynesville? I've got a follow-up, please.

尼克，我想先問你關於你在準備好的評論中的評論，或者實際上在你的新聞稿中關於準備調整活動的評論。然後你剛剛談到你保持了你的指導和你的資本支出指導不變。那麼，您能否介紹一下進行這些調整所需的條件？我假設活動減少或可能放慢一些事情，無論是資本還是阻塞井或其他什麼，你可以引導我們解決這個問題嗎？也許還有一個附加項，即您在非運營活動中也看到了什麼。是否有任何放緩的跡象，尤其是在海恩斯維爾？我有跟進，請。

Sure, Doug. Thanks for the question. From an activity perspective, we're pretty pleased with the way we're set up right now. We've reduced our activity coming out of last year, which has allowed production to fall a bit. We know that further activity reductions at this point really are going to have an impact on 2024. And we think it's a bit premature to make that decision. The contango that's present in the curve for 2024 looks pretty constructive at the moment. And if the activity reductions that are predicted throughout the market come through, we think 2024 should follow the contango that's there, maybe not perfectly, but it should be certainly more constructive than this year.

當然，道格。謝謝你的問題。從活動的角度來看，我們對目前的設置方式非常滿意。我們減少了去年的活動，這使得產量有所下降。我們知道此時進一步減少活動確實會對 2024 年產生影響。我們認為現在做出該決定還為時過早。 2024 年曲線中出現的正價差目前看起來非常具有建設性。如果整個市場預測的活動減少得以實現，我們認為 2024 年應該遵循那裡的期貨溢價，也許不完美，但它肯定比今年更具建設性。

So we want to maintain our productive capacity for 2024. Now in the near term, we have a lot of flexibility in how we think about managing our production and managing our exposure to the market. First, of course, we have our hedges in place, and they give us a nice cushion. But more importantly, we have a lot of decisions we can make every time we go to turn in line a well as to whether or not it makes sense to turn that well in line or defer it. And we haven't forecasted doing any of that -- any further of that than we've already done.

因此，我們希望在 2024 年保持我們的生產能力。現在，在短期內，我們在考慮如何管理我們的生產和管理我們的市場風險方面有很大的靈活性。首先，當然，我們有我們的樹籬，它們給了我們一個很好的緩衝。但更重要的是，每次我們去排隊時，我們都可以做出很多決定，以決定是排隊還是推遲。而且我們還沒有預測會做任何事情——比我們已經做的更進一步。

We've done a little bit through the beginnings of the shoulder season. We've already seen the need to curtail some volumes. We're going to do some maintenance that we are choosing to do now in the Haynesville that will take a little production offline for a couple of months. These are all things that are really prudent decisions to do during a low-price environment, and we'll keep making decisions like that. And this is where -- and again, I think the financial flexibility we have is a real strength, and we plan to lean in on it and use it. And as we go through the summer, if prices are weak and it's not productive to turn wells in line, we can choose to hold off and turning them in line. But having the activity completed, we can rely on the contango of the curve to make those decisions positive from an NPV standpoint.

我們在肩膀季節開始時做了一些工作。我們已經看到需要減少一些數量。我們將在 Haynesville 進行一些我們現在選擇進行的維護，這將使一些生產停產幾個月。這些都是在低價環境下真正謹慎的決定，我們將繼續做出這樣的決定。這就是——再一次，我認為我們擁有的財務靈活性是一種真正的優勢，我們計劃依靠它並使用它。當我們度過夏天時，如果價格疲軟並且調整油井產量不高，我們可以選擇推遲並調整油井。但是在活動完成後，我們可以依靠曲線的正價差從 NPV 的角度做出積極的決定。

So in other words, we're pretty happy with where we sit today. If we saw 2024 or the longer-term curve change its shape and fall off, then we would definitely change activity more. But as we see the longer-term curve looking more positive, we want to keep activity where it is. So we maintain that productive capacity. I'll ask Josh to comment on what we're seeing from an on-off perspective.

所以換句話說，我們對今天的坐姿非常滿意。如果我們看到 2024 年或長期曲線改變形狀並下降，那麼我們肯定會更多地改變活動。但當我們看到長期曲線看起來更積極時，我們希望保持活動在原位。所以我們保持這種生產能力。我會請 Josh 從開關的角度對我們所看到的發表評論。

Yes, we are absolutely starting to see some pullback in our third-party well proposals. We saw a little bit of a pickup right at the first of the year. Seen as many as 25 proposals kind of come through the door through the first quarter. Quarter-to-date, we're seeing maybe 10% of that same level. And also, those partners that we tend to join up with on well proposals, we're hearing of them pulling back activity. So we do expect to see slowdowns in our non-op activity through the course of the year. It represents a pretty minor part of our program. We have roughly $20 million allocated to that with a good portion of that spend already in the first quarter.

是的，我們絕對開始看到我們的第三方油井提案出現一些倒退。我們在今年年初看到了一點回升。在第一季度看到多達 25 份提案。本季度至今，我們看到的可能是同一水平的 10%。而且，我們傾向於與那些合作夥伴一起提出鑽井建議，我們聽說他們正在撤回活動。因此，我們確實希望在這一年中看到我們的非運營活動放緩。它只占我們程序的一小部分。我們為此分配了大約 2000 萬美元，其中很大一部分已經在第一季度支出。

Josh, I wonder could you translate that to rig activity? What would you anticipate Haynesville rig drops look like through the summer?

喬希，我想知道你能否將其轉化為鑽機活動？您預計整個夏天海恩斯維爾的鑽機掉落情況如何？

Yes. So we think that we've seen roughly 10 take place to date -- again, year-to-date, we think we'll probably see another 5 to probably 10 rigs continue to come out. This is just based upon our intel with our non-op partners but also even some of our rig contractors that are signaling of notices they're receiving for rig drop. So maybe up to 20 rigs in total as we get through the end of the summer. And we think a lot of that is just operators providing notices and then attempting to fulfill the obligations associated with any contract they may have had. So that's why we see, maybe a little bit of a delay here.

是的。因此，我們認為迄今為止我們已經看到大約 10 個發生了——同樣，今年迄今為止，我們認為我們可能會看到另外 5 到 10 個鑽井平台繼續出現。這只是基於我們與我們的非操作合作夥伴的情報，甚至是我們的一些鑽井平台承包商，他們正在發出他們收到的鑽井平台下降通知信號。因此，到夏季結束時，總共可能有多達 20 個鑽井平台。我們認為其中很多只是運營商提供通知，然後試圖履行與他們可能擁有的任何合同相關的義務。所以這就是我們看到的原因，也許這裡有一點延遲。

Great. My follow-up is a quick one. Nick, you've got -- congrats, first of all, on getting the cash in the door on the Eagle Ford, but you've got a sizable amount of your share buyback authorization left. I'm just wondering how you're thinking about that in terms of use of proceeds, the pacing of when you might want to start using that cash given the environment? And whether, in fact, you might reset that buyback authorization at some point, I'll leave it there.

偉大的。我的後續行動很快。尼克，你有——首先，恭喜你在鷹福特的門上拿到了現金，但你還有相當數量的股票回購授權。我只是想知道你是如何考慮收益的使用的，考慮到環境，你什麼時候開始使用這筆現金的節奏？事實上，你是否可以在某個時候重置回購授權，我會把它留在那裡。

Yes. Good question, Doug. We're pretty happy with the pace that we've achieved so far. We came out with originally $1 billion buyback. We upped to $2 billion. We've completed well over 50% of that authorization now. We started again this year following the closing of the first of the Eagle Ford transaction. You've seen an incremental 1 million shares bought since our last call. We don't want to be in a rush to complete this authorization. We said the authorization runs through the end of the year. So we're focused on that time frame, but I would not expect it to necessarily be ratable. It doesn't need to be ratable. And so we expect to have an ongoing program and we think we'll have opportunities to be more aggressive at times. And so we'll try to, again, lean into that flexibility we've provided ourselves.

是的。問得好，道格。我們對迄今為止取得的進展感到非常滿意。我們最初進行了 10 億美元的回購。我們增加到 20 億美元。我們現在已經完成了超過 50% 的授權。在 Eagle Ford 的第一筆交易結束後，我們今年再次開始。自我們上次電話會議以來，您已經看到購買了 100 萬股增量。我們不想急於完成此授權。我們說授權將持續到年底。所以我們專注於那個時間框架，但我不認為它一定是可評價的。它不需要評級。因此，我們希望有一個持續的計劃，我們認為我們有時會有機會變得更加積極。因此，我們將再次嘗試利用我們為自己提供的靈活性。

I think the idea that the company would likely have an ongoing buyback program after this authorization is clearly on our minds. We want to get a little bit further through this and see how the next phase of this goes before we decide how and when to address that. But I think we'll -- we like having an authorization out there. We like having the ability to continue to buy back our shares with free cash flow, and I would expect us to continue to do that.

我認為，在我們獲得授權後，公司可能會有一個持續的回購計劃。在我們決定如何以及何時解決該問題之前，我們希望進一步了解這一點並了解下一階段的進展情況。但我認為我們會 - 我們喜歡在那裡獲得授權。我們希望有能力繼續以自由現金流回購我們的股票，我希望我們能繼續這樣做。

The next question comes from Scott Hanold of RBC Capital Markets.

下一個問題來自 RBC Capital Markets 的 Scott Hanold。

Yes. If I can just take along a little bit on that last commentary. I mean your cash balance has ballooned pretty nicely here. And I appreciate that optionality that -- to be opportunistic. But just out of curiosity, do you see any opportunities to use that cash for any kind of M&A or bolt-on acquisitions at this point in time. If with -- obviously, the private companies, taking off their rigs and gas market a little bit weak right now. Is there an opportunity to do some very accretive bolt-on with some of that cash?

是的。如果我能對最後的評論有所了解的話。我的意思是你的現金餘額在這裡膨脹得非常好。我很欣賞這種機會主義的選擇性。但出於好奇，您是否看到任何機會在此時將這筆現金用於任何類型的併購或補強收購。如果 - 顯然，私營公司正在撤離他們的鑽井平台和天然氣市場，現在有點疲軟。是否有機會用其中的一些現金進行一些非常增值的補強？

Good question, Scott. I think these are really 2 very separate questions. We have an authorized buyback. We'll use that buyback. We believe it's important to follow through on what we projected. We are pretty proud of our track record of having done that thus far under our buyback. And we think that holds up well relative to the way a lot of other companies talk about and then execute under buybacks.

好問題，斯科特。我認為這些確實是兩個非常不同的問題。我們有授權回購。我們將使用回購。我們認為，貫徹我們的計劃很重要。我們為迄今為止在回購下做到這一點的記錄感到非常自豪。我們認為，相對於許多其他公司在回購下談論和執行的方式而言，這很好。

Separate from that, are there opportunities for acquisitions or M&A out there, maybe, they're hard. I would say they're hard, especially in a down market where sellers are not wanting to think about the current market conditions and wanting to look forward to an assumed improvement in market conditions. We stay engaged on the A&D front. We do believe in consolidation. We think there's value in consolidation when you follow our non-negotiables, so you don't overpay and you buy good assets where you can have real synergies that are not just theoretical, but they're driven by operational realities in the field. If we can do any of those things, then we'll absolutely continue to pursue them.

除此之外，是否有收購或併購的機會，也許，他們很難。我會說它們很難，尤其是在市場低迷的情況下，賣家不想考慮當前的市場狀況，並希望期待市場狀況假設有所改善。我們繼續參與 A&D 戰線。我們確實相信合併。我們認為，當你遵循我們的不可商議的原則時，整合是有價值的，所以你不會多付錢，你會購買優質資產，在那裡你可以獲得真正的協同效應，而不僅僅是理論上的，而且它們是由該領域的運營現實驅動的。如果我們可以做任何這些事情，那麼我們絕對會繼續追求它們。

I view that as somewhat separate from having cash on the balance sheet because anytime that we think about doing any sort of an acquisition, we would always think about is it financeable. Now if we have the cash, certainly, that makes the cost of financing more clear to us because we know what our cost of capital is rather than having to think about if there is incremental cost to go out and attract new capital, but that is an important element of how you should think about whether or not it's a good decision to deploy capital. What is capital worth in the market today? Yes, you have it, but what's it worth in the market? And does the deal meet your hurdles.

我認為這與資產負債表上的現金有些不同，因為無論何時我們考慮進行任何類型的收購，我們總是會考慮它是否可以融資。現在，如果我們有現金，那當然會讓我們更清楚地了解融資成本，因為我們知道我們的資本成本是多少，而不必考慮是否有增量成本來吸引新資本，但那是您應該如何考慮部署資本是否是一個好的決定的一個重要因素。當今市場上的資本價值是多少？是的，你有它，但它在市場上值多少錢？這筆交易是否會遇到您的障礙。

So I continue to say that having cash around is a fantastic point of flexibility and something that we want to maintain that kind of flexibility in our business, having that liquidity, that cash around. But that said, it's not a justification for doing a deal. The deal has to stand on its own.

所以我繼續說，擁有現金是靈活性的一個很好的點，我們希望在我們的業務中保持這種靈活性，擁有流動性，現金。但話雖如此，這並不是達成協議的理由。這筆交易必須獨立存在。

Okay. That's fair enough. And my follow-up question is on the gas macro. I mean, obviously, you talked about the contango in the market, but it would be interesting to hear on your thoughts of what you think the gas macro looks like. And how does that form your view of hedging? You did add some hedges but given the contango, why not get more aggressive? Or is there a concern the market pivots bullishly again in your kind of caught overhedged?

好的。這很公平。我的後續問題是關於天然氣宏。我的意思是，很明顯，你談到了市場上的期貨溢價，但聽聽你對天然氣宏觀的看法會很有趣。這如何形成您對對沖的看法？您確實添加了一些對沖，但考慮到正價差，為什麼不變得更加激進呢？還是擔心市場在你過度套期保值的情況下再次看漲？

Well, look, I think we have a pretty methodical hedging program that takes into account all of those things. We know that the market is going to be volatile. We're encouraged in the shape of the contango relative to where we sit today. But throughout last year, we put in place a lot of trades for '23 and '24 and beginning to even put on some trades for '25, where we've been able to look at some wide collars to capture that volatility in a different way, in a really productive way. And we think a continued methodical approach will allow you to protect yourself against what is inevitably but uncertain timing from downside and inevitably an uncertain timing from upside. And so we're going to continue to hedge with a methodical approach. We think it's been the right answer and I think it works.

好吧，看，我認為我們有一個非常有條不紊的對沖計劃，它考慮了所有這些因素。我們知道市場將會波動。相對於我們今天所處的位置，我們對正價差的形狀感到鼓舞。但在去年全年，我們為 23 年和 24 年進行了很多交易，甚至開始為 25 年進行了一些交易，我們已經能夠觀察一些寬領子，以不同的方式捕捉這種波動方式，以一種真正富有成效的方式。我們認為，持續有條不紊的方法將使您能夠保護自己免受不可避免但不確定的下行時機和不可避免的不確定上行時機的影響。因此，我們將繼續採用有條不紊的方法進行對沖。我們認為這是正確的答案，而且我認為它有效。

Okay. And just your view of the gas market, I'm just kind of curious, do you have a -- like what is Chesapeake's position on the current contango. Do you think it makes sense? Or what does your crystal ball say?

好的。只是你對天然氣市場的看法，我只是有點好奇，你有沒有 - 比如切薩皮克對當前期貨溢價的立場。你覺得有道理嗎？或者你的水晶球會說什麼？

Yes. I think the current contango off of a prompt price in the low $2s makes a lot of sense. But I also know that there will be a ton of volatility in the future. I mean we're excited about the LNG export capacity that's coming online. That's going to represent true structural demand growth. But let's recognize that, that will not just yield a straight up to the right curve. There will be plenty of volatility. These projects are lumpy and so as they come online, they have to have lumpy demand to match to them. There's plenty of unmet demand internationally right now. But we -- the U.S. is going to bring on a lot of LNG capacity, and we have to be prepared for the volatility that comes with that.

是的。我認為當前 2 美元低位的即時價格的期貨溢價很有意義。但我也知道未來會有很大的波動。我的意思是我們對即將上線的液化天然氣出口能力感到興奮。這將代表真正的結構性需求增長。但是讓我們認識到，這不僅會產生一條直達正確曲線的曲線。會有很大的波動。這些項目是塊狀的，所以當它們上線時，它們必須有塊狀的需求來匹配它們。目前國際上有大量未滿足的需求。但我們 - 美國將帶來大量液化天然氣產能，我們必須為隨之而來的波動做好準備。

So our business should drive in that environment, where we have assets that are at the lower end of the cost curve, and hold up well through these points of volatility. You can see how we're holding up this past quarter and how we hold up for the rest of the year at very low prices. So you know that we will hold up well when prices go back up a bit. We'll continue to work on our cost structure. We'll continue to try to drive our breakevens lower through our business every day. Our team is motivated to do that. Our team thinks about that every day and our actions drive for those outcomes. And you do that through lowering your costs and increasing your productivity. We think about both sides of that equation. And that, to me, is the most important way that you manage through volatility.

因此，我們的業務應該在那種環境下發展，我們的資產處於成本曲線的低端，並在這些波動點保持良好狀態。你可以看到我們在上個季度的表現如何，以及我們如何以非常低的價格在今年餘下的時間裡堅持下去。所以你知道當價格稍微回升時我們會保持良好狀態。我們將繼續研究我們的成本結構。我們將繼續努力通過我們的業務每天降低盈虧平衡點。我們的團隊有動力這樣做。我們的團隊每天都在思考這一點，我們的行動會推動這些結果。您可以通過降低成本和提高生產率來做到這一點。我們考慮了等式的兩邊。對我來說，這是應對波動的最重要方式。

Hedging is an important component of how you think about cushioning that volatility. But the best way to manage it is to stay at the low end of the cost curve.

對沖是您考慮如何緩衝這種波動的重要組成部分。但管理它的最佳方法是保持在成本曲線的低端。

The next question comes from Zach Parham of JPMorgan.

下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Zach Parham。

I guess first, just on costs. You talked about some rigs coming off in the Haynesville with expectations that we were going to drop. Are you starting to see any cost deflation? And maybe any thoughts on what the magnitude of that deflation could be later this year and into '24?

我想首先，只是成本。你談到了在海恩斯維爾的一些鑽井平台，他們期望我們會下降。您是否開始看到任何成本通縮？也許對今年晚些時候到 24 世紀的通貨緊縮程度有何想法？

Yes. Zach, this is Josh. We're definitely seeing trends that the OFS costs are flattening with maybe some minor signs starting to develop declining in certain areas. And of course, a lot of this is just driven by the pullback in activity that we're seeing across all the U.S. shale gas basins. We're seeing rig counts in that sector down about 10%. And relative to where we were maybe around the end of this past year. And we're also seeing frac crews starting to come out. I think at its peak, Haynesville was around 30. We're anticipating that may drop down to as few as 20 by the end of this year. And I think it remains to be seen how does that impact pricing? I think as you listen to some of the service providers that are indicating their willingness to relocate some of this equipment out of the gas basins and into areas such as the Permian.

是的。扎克，這是喬希。我們肯定會看到 OFS 成本趨於平緩的趨勢，在某些領域可能有一些小跡像開始下降。當然，這在很大程度上是由我們在美國所有頁岩氣盆地看到的活動回落所推動的。我們看到該行業的鑽機數量下降了約 10%。相對於我們可能在去年年底左右的位置。我們也看到壓裂工作人員開始出來。我認為在高峰期，海恩斯維爾大約有 30 個。我們預計到今年年底可能會降至 20 個。我認為這對定價有何影響還有待觀察？我想當你聽到一些服務提供商表示他們願意將這些設備中的一些從天然氣盆地轉移到二疊紀等地區時。

So that creates a little bit of uncertainty as how that might impact pricing but I'd just say the signs are very positive. We're seeing improved operations as well. We've kind of used this time as well to upgrade some of our service providers. So that's paying dividends for us right now. But again, we are seeing that some potential upside in the cost structure. But I would say it's just probably too early to change anything just yet. Just given the uncertainty around timing and just overall materiality of the cost reductions.

因此，這會產生一些不確定性，因為這可能會影響定價，但我只想說這些跡象非常積極。我們也看到了改進的操作。我們也利用這段時間來升級我們的一些服務提供商。因此，這正在為我們帶來紅利。但同樣，我們看到成本結構存在一些潛在的上升空間。但我想說現在改變任何事情可能還為時過早。只是考慮到時間的不確定性和成本降低的整體重要性。

Thanks for that color, Josh. Nick, maybe one for you. We've seen some of your E&P peers shift their cash return programs away from variable dividends to focus more on buybacks. Any thoughts on shifting away from the base dividend program in favor of more buybacks.

謝謝你的顏色，喬希。尼克，也許一個給你。我們已經看到您的一些 E&P 同行將他們的現金回報計劃從可變股息轉移到更多地關注回購。關於從基本股息計劃轉向支持更多回購的任何想法。

We'll continue to do what we're doing right now, Zach. Our free cash flow, obviously, is coming down as we move through this year with lower prices. And so the variable dividends come down with that. We love having the buyback there to continue to use the cash we have to return cash to shareholders. We think it's worked pretty well so far. We get a lot of varying feedback from investors with some investors really favoring the implied discipline of the dividend, balanced with the buyback.

扎克，我們將繼續做我們現在正在做的事情。顯然，隨著我們以較低的價格度過今年，我們的自由現金流正在下降。因此，可變股息隨之下降。我們喜歡在那裡進行回購，以繼續使用我們必須向股東返還現金的現金。我們認為到目前為止效果很好。我們從投資者那裡得到了很多不同的反饋，一些投資者真的很贊成股息的隱含紀律，與回購相平衡。

We're -- as I've said all along, we're not dogmatic about any of this, and we'll continue to think about what makes most sense. We've liked what we've done so far. We think it makes sense to continue it, but we'll continue to monitor it. And if there's some change in the future that makes sense, we would do it. Otherwise, I'd say we'll keep doing what we're doing.

我們 - 正如我一直所說的那樣，我們對此並不教條，我們將繼續思考最有意義的事情。我們喜歡我們到目前為止所做的一切。我們認為繼續它是有意義的，但我們會繼續監控它。如果未來有一些有意義的改變，我們會去做。否則，我會說我們會繼續做我們正在做的事情。

The next question comes from Josh Silverstein of UBS.

下一個問題來自瑞銀的 Josh Silverstein。

You talked about dropping some activity as planned in both the Haynesville and the Marcellus in 2Q and 3Q, which will decline volumes a little bit. I know there's a lot of flexibility in the program. You talked about some improved cost and efficiency gains. But how are you thinking about kind of sustaining that activity into 2024? Will you have to add that activity back? Can you sustain that level of the second half activity pace. So just curious how that looks into next year?

你談到了在第二季度和第三季度在 Haynesville 和 Marcellus 按計劃放棄一些活動，這將略微減少交易量。我知道這個項目有很大的靈活性。您談到了一些改進的成本和效率收益。但是你如何考慮將這種活動維持到 2024 年？你必須把那個活動加回去嗎？你能維持下半場活動節奏的水平嗎？所以只是好奇明年會怎樣？

All else equal, Josh, if we see a good strong market next year, we would add activity back. Our program requires somewhere in between 4 and 5 rigs to stay flat in the Marcellus and about 6 rigs to stay flat in the Haynesville. So as we dip below that, we know that we are leaning into the concept that the market is oversupplied. That's the right thing to do. And at some point, when the market is healthy, we want to be back to a maintenance level with the ability to ramp into modest growth when that makes sense. So yes, we would add back at some point but we're not there yet. We want to wait and see how 2024 plays out.

喬希，在其他條件相同的情況下，如果明年我們看到一個強勁的市場，我們會增加活動。我們的計劃需要大約 4 到 5 個鑽機才能在 Marcellus 保持平坦，大約需要 6 個鑽機才能在 Haynesville 保持平坦。因此，當我們跌破該水平時，我們知道我們正在傾向於市場供過於求的概念。這是正確的做法。在某個時候，當市場健康時，我們希望回到維持水平，並有能力在合理的情況下實現適度增長。所以是的，我們會在某個時候添加回來，但我們還沒有。我們想拭目以待，看看 2024 年的結果如何。

Got it. And then as part of the Marcellus program for this year, you have almost roughly a 50-50 split between the Upper and Lower Marcellus. Just wanted to see how Upper Marcellus well productivity is going and how you think activity may shift between the 2 zones going forward, knowing that the upper is a bigger part of the inventory base?

知道了。然後，作為今年馬塞勒斯計劃的一部分，上馬塞勒斯和下馬塞勒斯之間的比例幾乎為 50-50。只是想看看 Upper Marcellus 油井的生產率如何，以及你認為活動可能如何在兩個區域之間轉移，知道上部是庫存基礎的更大部分？

Yes, Josh, what I'd say on that is, this year, the program is designed to be about 55% lower, 45% upper. We expect that trend to hold true to that probably for the next couple of years, at least. I would say, clearly, the Upper Marcellus has productivity per foot. That is less than -- about 20% to 25% less than where we've seen the year Lower historically. But again, we have the opportunities there to extend lateral lengths up to 30% more on average and so what we tend to focus on when we try to prioritize our drilling schedule is really assessing the overall return and capital efficiency. And so when you take that productivity and you account for the longer laterals, we really see the Upper being able to compete with the bulk of our remaining Lower inventory. And so we really like the spread that we have today. We've been pleased with the results that we've gotten and look forward to continue developing that in conjunction with our remaining lower inventory.

是的，喬什，我要說的是，今年，該計劃的設計目標是降低約 55%，提高 45%。我們預計至少在未來幾年內這種趨勢可能會保持不變。我想說的是，上馬塞勒斯顯然具有每英尺的生產力。這比我們在歷史上看到的年度低點少了大約 20% 到 25%。但同樣，我們有機會在那裡將橫向長度平均延長 30%，因此當我們嘗試優先考慮鑽井計劃時，我們傾向於關注的是真正評估整體回報和資本效率。因此，當您考慮到這種生產力並考慮到較長的橫向時，我們確實看到上層能夠與我們剩餘的大部分下層庫存競爭。所以我們真的很喜歡我們今天的傳播。我們對取得的結果感到滿意，並期待結合我們剩餘的較低庫存繼續開發該結果。

The next question comes from Matt Portillo of TPH.

下一個問題來自 TPH 的 Matt Portillo。

I just have 2 quick questions on the infrastructure side. Just curious if you could give us an update on infield infrastructure. I know last year, there were quite a few constraints around processing and treating and just curious how you guys feel about the progress of that infrastructure expansion in 2023 and potentially 2024? Just trying to get a better picture of how things are going at the field level.

我在基礎設施方面只有 2 個快速問題。只是好奇您是否可以向我們提供有關內場基礎設施的最新信息。我知道去年，在處理和處理方面有很多限制，只是想知道你們對 2023 年和可能 2024 年基礎設施擴建的進展有何看法？只是想更好地了解現場層面的情況。

Yes. This is Josh. We've made a lot of progress on that and have been really pleased with how that's starting to show up in our production both with our base, but also the benefits it's providing to the TILs that we've had today. Nick referenced in his prepared comments that we've seen an 8% improvement in our 90-day IPs, and we think that's directly attributable to the fact that we're seeing lower gathering pressures in the system, which is allowing us to more optimally manage our chokes.

是的。這是喬希。我們已經在這方面取得了很大進展，並且非常高興地看到我們的基地開始在我們的生產中出現，而且它為我們今天擁有的 TIL 帶來的好處。 Nick 在他準備好的評論中提到，我們已經看到 90 天的 IP 提高了 8%，我們認為這直接歸因於我們看到系統中的聚集壓力降低，這使我們能夠更優化管理我們的扼流圈。

In addition to that, one of the reasons that we were a little bit ahead of our guidance in the Haynesville on production is as we see third-party maintenance occurring across the field, we have more opportunity now to offload gas into adjacent gathering and treating systems, which is minimizing the impacts of those third-party outages.

除此之外，我們在 Haynesville 的生產指導中略微領先的原因之一是我們看到整個油田都在進行第三方維護，我們現在有更多機會將天然氣卸載到鄰近的收集和處理中系統，它正在最大限度地減少這些第三方中斷的影響。

So again, really, really pleased with the progress that we've made. We're going to continue to be working that to ensure that capacity we have in our midstream space is matching the production we expect from the asset.

因此，再次對我們取得的進展感到非常非常高興。我們將繼續努力確保我們在中游空間的產能與我們對資產的預期產量相匹配。

Perfect. And then as a follow-up to the Haynesville question there, just curious if you could give us an update on the progress around momentum, how you're feeling about the project moving forward? And then maybe if you could just speak to the basin infrastructure expansion from a takeaway perspective as it progressed through '24 and '25 and what that might mean for basis, especially if we start to see a flattening out of Haynesville growth going into next year.

完美的。然後作為 Haynesville 問題的後續行動，只是想知道您是否可以向我們提供有關勢頭進展的最新信息，您對項目的進展有何看法？然後也許你可以從外賣的角度談談流域基礎設施的擴張，因為它在 24 和 25 年取得了進展，這對基礎可能意味著什麼，特別是如果我們開始看到明年海恩斯維爾的增長趨於平緩.

Yes, Matt, this is Mohit. On the first part of your question, so the punch line is the momentum project is on track. We are actively engaged with the momentum there in terms of monitoring the progress and everything in terms of securing right of ways and pipes and other equipment that's needed to get the project in service is all on track. As we have previously guided, the in-service date is end of 2024, and that's still all on track. So pretty pleased with that project and how it's progressing.

是的，馬特，這是莫希特。關於你問題的第一部分，重點是動量項目已經步入正軌。我們積極參與那裡的勢頭，監測進展情況，確保項目投入使用所需的道路、管道和其他設備的權利一切正常。正如我們之前所指導的那樣，投入使用的日期是 2024 年底，一切都在按計劃進行。對該項目及其進展情況非常滿意。

On the second part of your question around overall infrastructure build, I think it will continue to develop. When we think about long-haul pipes, several different projects are being built, momentum, NG3 being one of them, essentially, that will allow production to be picked up at the tailgate of our gathering system in Haynesville and bring it down to Gillis, which is closer to the LNG complex. We know of other projects, which are also being built at the same time. So at least the good news is in Louisiana there's -- the environment is friendly enough that we think more of those kinds of pipelines can be built.

關於你關於整體基礎設施建設的問題的第二部分，我認為它會繼續發展。當我們考慮長途管道時，正在建設幾個不同的項目，勢頭，NG3 就是其中之一，從本質上講，這將使生產能夠在我們位於海恩斯維爾的收集系統的後擋板進行，並將其帶到吉利斯，離液化天然氣綜合體更近。我們知道其他項目也在同時建設中。所以至少在路易斯安那州有好消息——環境非常友好，我們認為可以建造更多這樣的管道。

The other thing which is going -- which is happening in conjunction with that is all these different liquefaction facilities are being built. So all of that, I think, is what gets us bullish about the natural gas macro. And when we look at the contango, that's reflecting that. Overall, as Nick said earlier, we are setting up our business to be LNG-ready. And as and when that demand comes through, we'll be ready to deliver into it.

另一件正在發生的事情——與此同時發生的是所有這些不同的液化設施正在建設中。所以我認為，所有這些都是讓我們看好天然氣宏觀的原因。當我們看期貨溢價時，這反映了這一點。總的來說，正如尼克之前所說，我們正在建立我們的業務以準備好使用液化天然氣。當需求出現時，我們將準備好交付。

The next question comes from Nitin Kumar of Mizuho.

下一個問題來自瑞穗的 Nitin Kumar。

I guess I'll start on the Eagle Ford, congrats on getting the first 2 packages done. Commodity prices have been a bit volatile and interest rates are rising. Just any thoughts on the progress of the last piece, the rich gas assets? And I think last quarter, you had said that EBITDA with that asset was about $300 million. What's the estimate now with lower commodity prices?

我想我將從 Eagle Ford 開始，恭喜您完成了前 2 個包。商品價格有點波動，利率正在上升。對最後一塊的進展有什麼想法，豐富的天然氣資產？我認為上個季度，您曾說過該資產的 EBITDA 約為 3 億美元。大宗商品價格走低，現在估計是多少？

Well, so Nitin, this is Mohit. On the first part of your question, so we remain in active dialogue with the interested parties there. You correctly referenced that commodity prices and seen volatility and then interest rate environment has been equally volatile, so financing market remains challenged. The good news is the buyers that we have been engaged with all throughout the process have been actively in dialogue with us, that bodes well. As we have said all along, we are prepared to hold on to the asset if we don't get to the right price. So again, all those options are on the table, and we are continuing to work through all of that.

那麼，Nitin，這是 Mohit。關於你問題的第一部分，我們將繼續與相關各方進行積極對話。您正確地提到了大宗商品價格和波動性，然後利率環境也同樣波動，因此融資市場仍然面臨挑戰。好消息是，我們在整個過程中一直接觸的買家一直在積極與我們對話，這是個好兆頭。正如我們一直所說的那樣，如果我們沒有達到合適的價格，我們準備持有資產。因此，所有這些選項都擺在桌面上，我們將繼續努力解決所有這些問題。

On the second part of your question around EBITDA for the asset, it's about $250 million for the year is what we would guide you at this point.

關於您關於資產 EBITDA 的問題的第二部分，我們目前將指導您的年度約為 2.5 億美元。

Great. And I guess you've talked a little bit about LNG. Nick, you mentioned the contango in the gas curve. Just any thoughts on the current and maybe near-term LNG feed gas demand. Things seem to have slowed down a little bit since Freeport came on towards the end of March. And then there's been some talk of Golden Pass, maybe pulling some gas earlier than expected. So just a more near-term look on what you're seeing from the LNG guys now.

偉大的。我猜你已經談了一些關於液化天然氣的事情。尼克，你提到了氣體曲線中的正價差。關於當前和近期 LNG 原料氣需求的任何想法。自從 Freeport 於 3 月底開業以來，情況似乎有所放緩。然後有一些關於 Golden Pass 的討論，可能會比預期更早地提速。所以只是更近期地看看你現在從 LNG 傢伙那裡看到的東西。

I don't think we're hearing anything different than you guys here, but we're encouraged by what we're hearing. It sounds like Golden Pass is making great progress. It sounds like Venture Global is making great progress. Again, we don't have anything proprietary there. We're encouraged by all of it. Seems like those projects are moving along and hope to have plenty of new demand show up in the U.S. as a result, as we move through next year and into '25.

我認為我們聽到的與在座的各位沒有什麼不同，但我們對聽到的內容感到鼓舞。聽起來 Golden Pass 正在取得很大進展。聽起來 Venture Global 正在取得很大進展。同樣，我們在那裡沒有任何專有的東西。我們為這一切感到鼓舞。似乎這些項目正在推進，並希望隨著我們明年進入 25 世紀，美國會出現大量新需求。

The next question comes from Bertrand Donnes of Truist.

下一個問題來自 Truist 的 Bertrand Donnes。

Just following up on Nick's comment on the potential pivot in production in '24. It sounded like maybe you're implying that the '24 production profile could kind of match the strip, currently above $4 at the end of the year, but I want to clarify would you still grow if that $4 handle dropped back into the $3s because it's still above your breakevens or if you're looking at that high level as your incentive to grow.

只是跟進尼克對 24 年生產的潛在支點的評論。聽起來你可能是在暗示 24 年的生產概況可能與條帶相匹配，目前在今年年底超過 4 美元，但我想澄清一下，如果 4 美元的手柄回落到 3 美元，你還會增長嗎因為它仍然高於您的盈虧平衡點，或者如果您將高水平視為增長的動力。

Well, Bert, we're looking at all kinds of scenarios for 2024, and we're not ready to give you an exact answer of how we think about allocating capital to the year yet because we don't have the full set of information to set our plans for the year. We have a lot of flexibility. And all I'm trying to convey is that if prices weaken in '24, we can either keep activity at a low level where it is today -- or lower level where it is today, and we can lower it further. And if prices show the strength in contango that they have or strengthen, we can bring activity back and put ourselves back in a position to grow as we approach '25.

好吧，伯特，我們正在研究 2024 年的各種情況，但我們還沒有準備好就我們如何考慮今年的資本分配給你一個確切的答案，因為我們沒有完整的信息集制定我們今年的計劃。我們有很大的靈活性。我想表達的是，如果 24 年價格走軟，我們可以將活動保持在今天的低水平，或者保持在今天的較低水平，我們可以進一步降低它。如果價格顯示出他們擁有或加強的正價差強度，我們可以恢復活動並讓我們自己在接近 25 歲時重新處於增長的位置。

All I'm really trying to highlight is that we're encouraged by the contango that we see, and we're encouraged by the changes that we're seeing in the market that we believe should help to underpin that contango. Now there's many things that could still happen between now and then that could change those outcomes. And so we'll watch it closely, and we'll make decisions about how to allocate capital for '24 as we get closer to the end of the year.

我真正想強調的是，我們對我們看到的期貨溢價感到鼓舞，我們對我們在市場上看到的變化感到鼓舞，我們認為這些變化應該有助於支撐這種期貨溢價。現在，從現在到那時，仍有許多事情可能會發生，這可能會改變這些結果。因此，我們將密切關注它，並在臨近年底時決定如何為 24 世紀分配資金。

Great color. And then a follow-up. On LNG, I think that you've indicated before that you do want to kind of limit your exposure to international pricing maybe 10% to 15% of your total profile. Could you maybe walk through why you don't feel comfortable with the higher level or why you pick that level?

很棒的顏色。然後是跟進。在液化天然氣方面，我認為你之前已經表示你確實想將你對國際定價的敞口限制在你總概況的 10% 到 15% 之間。您能否解釋一下為什麼您對更高級別感到不舒服或為什麼選擇該級別？

Well, I think we've said probably 15% to 20%, but there's not a real magic number within that range. The way that we have come up with that range as we think about the capacity of export that will ultimately be present in the U.S. And today, we would say that should be about 20%-ish of the U.S. market would be -- of demand for the U.S. would be represented by LNG export capacity. It could be a little higher, it could be a little less depending on exactly which projects show up.

好吧，我想我們已經說過可能是 15% 到 20%，但在這個範圍內並沒有一個真正的神奇數字。當我們考慮最終將出現在美國的出口能力時，我們得出這個範圍的方式。今天，我們會說這應該是美國市場需求的 20% 左右對美國來說，LNG 出口能力代表了這一點。它可能高一點，也可能低一點，具體取決於出現的項目。

And so we feel like if 15% to 20% of our production is exposed to international pricing, that would match the demand in the U.S. that is exposed to international pricing, and that would keep us balanced to the drivers of what's going to pull on supply from the U.S. So we'll -- we think that's a good place to start. It's going to take us a while to get there as you've seen these contracts move fairly slowly. We're learning a lot about the way they come together. We're learning a lot about the players in the industry. We're really pleased with the progress that we've made. We don't want to be in a rush here. So that is meant to be a long-term target. And we think it makes sense for now. And as we move through time, if that needs to change, we'll change it.

因此，我們認為，如果我們 15% 到 20% 的產品受國際定價影響，那將與受國際定價影響的美國需求相匹配，這將使我們在未來的驅動因素方面保持平衡來自美國的供應所以我們將 - 我們認為這是一個很好的起點。我們需要一段時間才能到達那裡，因為您已經看到這些合同的進展相當緩慢。我們正在學習很多關於他們聚在一起的方式。我們正在了解很多關於這個行業的參與者。我們對我們取得的進展感到非常高興。我們不想在這裡匆忙。所以這應該是一個長期目標。我們認為目前這是有道理的。隨著時間的流逝，如果需要改變，我們會改變它。

The next question comes from Umang Choudhary of Goldman Sachs.

下一個問題來自高盛的 Umang Choudhary。

You talked about volatile gas price environment going forward. Gas prices are weak today, and obviously, you plan to lean more towards share repurchase more countercyclically, but thinking more long term, would love your thoughts around the optimal leverage and cash you would like to have on the balance sheet when prices improve.

您談到了未來不穩定的天然氣價格環境。今天的汽油價格疲軟，顯然，您計劃更傾向於逆週期回購股票，但從長遠考慮，您會喜歡您關於最佳槓桿率和價格上漲時希望在資產負債表上擁有的現金的想法。

Yes. I think, Umang, this is Mohit. The way we think about it is the balance sheet is in a pretty pristine condition. We love that. We would love to maintain it that way. The way I'd like you to think about it also is just think of it in terms of what the boundary conditions are. We have publicly and previously said that one turn of net debt to EBITDA is kind of the max that we would want to get to.

是的。我想，Umang，這是 Mohit。我們認為它的資產負債表處於非常原始的狀態。我們喜歡那個。我們很樂意以這種方式維護它。我希望你考慮它的方式也只是根據邊界條件來考慮它。我們之前曾公開表示，將淨債務轉為 EBITDA 是我們想要達到的最大值。

In terms of what the lower end might be, I mean, a little bit of leverage is good. So it all depends on what point you are in the cycle. So would you trend more closer to the one turn net debt to EBITDA when you're potentially at the low point in the cycle versus you want to keep the leverage lower when you're at the high point in the cycle and kind of flexing it through the cycles would be the -- we mentally think about it, but the max is, as I said, the boundary conditions, we certainly don't want to exceed one turn net debt to EBITDA. And the logic notionally being, if we have -- if all things go south and we have to shut activity down then the EBITDA that we are generating allows us to pay it off in 1 year.

就低端而言，我的意思是，有一點槓桿是好的。所以這完全取決於你在周期中的哪個點。因此，當您可能處於週期的低點時，您是否傾向於更接近 EBITDA 的淨債務，而不是當您處於週期的高點並有點彎曲時，您希望保持較低的槓桿率通過週期將是 - 我們在精神上考慮它，但正如我所說，最大值是邊界條件，我們當然不想超過 EBITDA 的淨債務。理論上的邏輯是，如果我們有 - 如果一切都向南，我們必須關閉活動，那麼我們產生的 EBITDA 允許我們在 1 年內還清。

So we tend to think of it more in terms of what the max leverage should be. And within that 0 to 1 turn, the optimal would kind of flex through the cycles.

所以我們傾向於更多地考慮最大槓桿應該是多少。在 0 到 1 的轉彎中，最佳方案會在循環中發生變化。

Very helpful. And also another point which we -- which Nick made earlier was around reducing the free cash flow breakeven for the company, right, to position it both for the up cycle, but also when prices are lower. Beyond your marketing efforts and be LNG-ready strategy, any areas where you see potential for further improvement of breakevens longer term?

很有幫助。還有一個我們 - 尼克早些時候提出的觀點是關於減少公司的自由現金流盈虧平衡，正確的，將其定位在上升週期，但也在價格較低時。除了您的營銷努力和 LNG 就緒戰略之外，您認為有哪些領域可以進一步改善長期盈虧平衡？

I would say it's just more of what we've continued to do, Umang. We've continued to work on longer laterals. We've continued to work on how we target locations within the field. We've continued to work on the efficiency of our completions, the efficiency of the drill bit, and every bit of that matters. And that's something that we've tried to make a part of the just everyday thought process around here to drive costs lower, while driving productivity higher. It's not just about one side of the equation, it's about both.

我會說這只是我們繼續做的事情的更多內容，Umang。我們繼續致力於更長的橫向。我們一直致力於研究如何定位該領域內的位置。我們一直在努力提高完井效率、鑽頭效率以及所有重要事項。這就是我們試圖讓這裡的日常思維過程的一部分，以降低成本，同時提高生產率。這不僅僅是等式的一方面，而是雙方。

Yes. Umang, I would just say our well cost, we talked a little bit about inflation earlier and really, of course, we're starting to talk now about deflation. But clearly, that's a tailwind for us and is going to provide some opportunities to reduce breakevens. We're also working our water infrastructure really hard in the Haynesville, which has a pretty material impact to our overall operating margins there. And so those are just a couple of points that I would just add on to that.

是的。 Umang，我只想說我們的井成本，我們之前談過一點通貨膨脹，當然，我們現在開始談論通貨緊縮。但顯然，這對我們來說是順風，並將提供一些減少收支平衡的機會。我們還在 Haynesville 非常努力地建設我們的水利基礎設施，這對我們在那裡的整體營業利潤率產生了相當大的影響。因此，這些只是我要補充的幾點。

The next question comes from Paul Diamond of Citi.

下一個問題來自花旗銀行的保羅戴蒙德。

Just a quick question. So you talked about some of the operational efficiency improvements in southern Haynesville that you guys have seen recently. Just wanted to get my head around how you -- should we think of those as progressing further along a linear track? Or I guess how much D&C is still in the bone there?

只是一個簡單的問題。所以你們談到了你們最近看到的南海恩斯維爾的一些運營效率改進。只是想了解一下您如何 - 我們是否應該將這些視為沿著線性軌道進一步發展？或者我猜還有多少 D&C 還在骨子裡？

Yes, Paul. I mean, those are, I would say, just continue to progress a linear track. I mean we've been operating in the Haynesville and the Marcellus for well over a decade. And so I think the big step changes have been made. And so it's really about just incremental improvements and continue to chip away that inefficiencies. Part of that is, as I mentioned earlier, upgrading our service providers when we can. But our teams are engaged in looking at the lowest level of detail around how we drill our wells faster, cheaper, safer and the same thing could be said on the completion front. And so it's a daily discussion about how do we make our business more efficient than it was yesterday.

是的，保羅。我的意思是，我想說的是，這些只是繼續沿著線性軌道前進。我的意思是我們在 Haynesville 和 Marcellus 經營了十多年。所以我認為已經做出了重大的改變。因此，這實際上只是漸進式改進，並繼續消除效率低下的問題。正如我之前提到的，其中一部分是盡可能升級我們的服務提供商。但我們的團隊正致力於研究我們如何更快、更便宜、更安全地鑽井的最低級別的細節，在完井方面也可以說同樣的話。因此，我們每天都在討論如何讓我們的業務比昨天更有效率。

Understood. And just one quick follow-up, more talking about longer term, the split between Haynesville and Marcellus. Is that something we should think is relatively set in stone? Or is there some potential modularity based on whether it's takeaway constraints or in basin pricing risk or other infrastructure? Or is that pretty locked in?

明白了。只是一個快速的跟進，更多地談論長期，海恩斯維爾和馬塞勒斯之間的分裂。我們應該認為這是相對固定的事情嗎？或者是否存在一些基於外賣限製或流域定價風險或其他基礎設施的潛在模塊化？還是那很鎖定？

That's pretty fluid and a lot of it does end up depending on how the gas markets within the respective basins are playing out. I mean clearly, the overall return is going to be stronger in the Marcellus, given the strength of our position there. But I would just maybe point to our decision earlier in the year to pull out a frac crew in the Marcellus. One of the reasons we did that is we were seeing the setup of a weakening demand situation through the end of the first quarter and into the second quarter, and we simply didn't want to be completing wells and then turning them in line into that weaker environment.

這是非常不穩定的，其中很多最終取決於各個盆地內的天然氣市場如何發揮作用。我的意思很明確，考慮到我們在那裡的地位，馬塞勒斯的整體回報將會更強。但我可能會指出我們今年早些時候決定在馬塞勒斯撤出壓裂船員。我們這樣做的一個原因是我們看到需求疲軟的情況一直持續到第一季度末和第二季度，我們根本不想完成油井，然後將它們變成這樣環境較弱。

And so we'll actually see ourselves down a little bit until in the second quarter. I think we'll end up with somewhere around 13 tools coming in line. And again, that's just simply to acknowledge that, that market will be weaker in that period of time, but that doesn't necessarily represent a long-term view, again, just a short-term impact due to local market conditions.

因此，在第二季度之前，我們實際上會看到自己有所下降。我認為我們最終會得到大約 13 種工具。再說一遍，這只是簡單地承認，那段時間市場會走弱，但這並不一定代表長期觀點，這只是當地市場狀況造成的短期影響。

I think the only thing I would add to that, Paul, is you should think of Marcellus as kind of the baseload because we maximize capital allocation to it. That is our best asset. And you should think of Haynesville as the flex engine, which allows us to flex up or down depending on what we're seeing with the prompt pricing.

保羅，我想我唯一要補充的是，你應該把馬塞勒斯看作是一種基本負荷，因為我們最大限度地分配給它的資本。那是我們最好的資產。您應該將 Haynesville 視為靈活的引擎，它使我們能夠根據我們看到的及時定價來靈活調整。

The next question comes from Noel Parks of Tuohy Brothers.

下一個問題來自 Tuohy Brothers 的 Noel Parks。

I wanted to check in on something around the service environment. Is it safe to say that there are still no signs out there among the larger service vendors of any appetite for them rolling out additional equipment, new builds and so forth. And I was thinking about that in the context of sort of if service costs even with a little bit of relief on inflation, if they stay high, if sort of the rig in frac fleets for the industry are relatively static. Does it -- it seems like that would be an upward pressure on the price that the industry would need to get for gas in order to be able to supply the LNG demands going forward. So I just wanted to check on that as far as you can tell, still no signs of any relief on sort the overall equipment capacity front.

我想檢查一下服務環境周圍的一些東西。可以肯定地說，大型服務供應商仍然沒有跡象表明他們願意推出額外的設備、新的構建等。我在考慮這種情況，如果服務成本即使在通貨膨脹有所緩解的情況下，如果它們保持高位，如果該行業的壓裂船隊中的鑽井平台相對靜止。是嗎——這似乎會給行業帶來天然氣價格的上行壓力，以便能夠滿足未來的液化天然氣需求。所以我只是想檢查一下，據你所知，仍然沒有跡象表明整體設備能力方面有任何緩解。

Yes. No, I mean clearly, through the end of last year, we saw really high utilization rates the high-spec rigs and frac fleets. As we're out talking to service providers, we're not seeing any strong signals of them deploying capital into new equipment. But what we are seeing that is, I think I could use maybe the example of the dual fuel or probably even a better example is the e-fleets, they are starting to realize the operational efficiencies and cost efficiencies associated with those. So we are seeing some of those start to come out into the market. But in most cases, when they bring that in, that means they're retiring less efficient, older piece of equipment, again, generally, the diesel fuel units.

是的。不，我的意思很清楚，到去年年底，我們看到高規格鑽井平台和壓裂船隊的利用率非常高。當我們與服務提供商交談時，我們沒有看到任何強烈的信號表明他們將資金部署到新設備中。但我們看到的是，我想我可以使用雙燃料的例子，或者甚至更好的例子是電子車隊，他們開始意識到與之相關的運營效率和成本效益。所以我們看到其中一些開始進入市場。但在大多數情況下，當他們將其引入時，這意味著他們將淘汰效率較低、較舊的設備，一般來說，還是柴油機。

So I think as that overall capacity across the service sector remains tight, I do think that can potentially longer term, create a little bit of a headwind for us from a service cost standpoint. But that's why we remain so focused on partnering with the best service providers in the industry to help drive additional operational efficiencies, which in turn offsets any future inflation that we could see.

因此，我認為，由於整個服務行業的整體產能仍然緊張，我確實認為，從服務成本的角度來看，從長期來看，這可能會給我們帶來一些不利因素。但這就是為什麼我們仍然如此專注於與業內最好的服務提供商合作，以幫助提高運營效率，從而抵消我們可能看到的任何未來通貨膨脹。

Great. And I just wonder, as we have had a few more months tick by with oil remaining relatively strong and near-term gas struggling a bit. Do you have any updated thoughts on sort of the associated gas piece of the puzzle in the -- from the Permian in terms of, I guess, supply to the Gulf or in terms of what impact that might have on sort of longer-term LNG.

偉大的。我只是想知道，因為我們又過了幾個月，石油仍然相對強勁，而近期的天然氣則有點掙扎。你對二疊紀中的相關天然氣拼圖有什麼最新的想法嗎？我想，從供應到海灣，或者可能對長期液化天然氣產生什麼影響.

Generally, Noel, we think with oil prices remaining constructive, the pipes that are built from the Permian to the east are going to be full. That's kind of how we think about how to model associated gas.

一般來說，Noel，我們認為隨著油價保持建設性，從二疊紀向東建造的管道將會滿載。這就是我們考慮如何模擬伴生氣的方式。

The next question comes from Subash Chandra of Benchmark.

下一個問題來自 Benchmark 的 Subash Chandra。

Just a follow-up -- follow-up on the Haynesville rig view. So another 10 through the end of summer. Curious if that's your current visibility if you think that's sort of a trough or it's really dependent on whether summer materializes, all the macro stuff that could pressure prices in the third quarter, for instance, and we could see another leg down? And specific to Chesapeake, what is your willingness to incur any early contract termination penalties to accelerate rig drops on your end?

只是後續行動——海恩斯維爾鑽井平台視圖的後續行動。所以還有 10 到夏天結束。好奇這是否是你目前的能見度，如果你認為這是一個低谷，或者它真的取決於夏季是否實現，所有可能在第三季度對價格施壓的宏觀因素，例如，我們可能會看到另一條腿？具體到切薩皮克，您願意承擔任何提前終止合同的罰款以加速您的鑽井平台下降嗎？

Good -- all good questions, Subash. I think further drops than what are currently projected are going to be reliant on the 2024 and beyond curve moving. I don't think you're going to see rig drops come from just a summer crash of prices, should that happen -- should we hit a well of storage going into November 1 and late summer, fall prices really fall on the front months. But if the longer-term curve holds up, I don't think you see rig changes. If the longer-term curve moves down, then I think you do see rig changes.

好——都是好問題，Subash。我認為比目前預計的進一步下降將取決於 2024 年及以後的曲線移動。我不認為你會看到鑽井平台下降僅來自夏季的價格暴跌，如果發生這種情況——如果我們在 11 月 1 日和夏末進入一口儲油井，未來幾個月的價格真的會下跌.但如果長期曲線保持不變，我認為你不會看到鑽井平台的變化。如果長期曲線向下移動，那麼我認為你確實會看到鑽井平台的變化。

As far as our willingness to think about any penalties for reducing rigs that are under contracts, usually, we can navigate that. We can navigate it because we have scale and we have big relationships with our rig providers and we have a staggered set of contracts. And so we try to maintain flexibility where you could make decisions like that and not incur penalties that would be cumbersome.

就我們願意考慮對減少合同規定的鑽井平台的任何懲罰而言，通常我們可以解決這個問題。我們可以駕馭它，因為我們有規模，我們與我們的鑽機供應商有很大的關係，我們有一套交錯的合同。因此，我們盡量保持靈活性，您可以做出這樣的決定，而不會招致繁瑣的處罰。

Okay. And Nick, I guess, on some clarification on the LNG-ready strategy because it seems like you have ample coverage of your current LNG -- direct LNG exposure. So is it -- and that -- I think reading between the lines, LNG-ready does not mean maintenance, it means some level of growth. So does that mean a willingness or desire to have more direct exposure? Because I think you've sort of said that is -- you'd like a bit more, but maybe not a lot more. But yes, I guess boiling the question down, like you have more than enough local production to satisfy your LNG exposure. So why growth at all our there.

好的。我猜 Nick 對 LNG 就緒策略做了一些澄清，因為看起來你對當前的 LNG 有足夠的覆蓋——直接 LNG 暴露。也是這樣——而且——我認為從字裡行間看，液化天然氣就緒並不意味著維護，它意味著某種程度的增長。那麼這是否意味著願意或希望有更直接的接觸？因為我認為你有點說過——你想要更多，但可能不會更多。但是，是的，我想把問題歸結為問題，就像你有足夠多的本地生產來滿足你的液化天然氣暴露。那麼為什麼我們在那裡增長。

Yes. I think we've been pretty clear and consistent in our message that we're comfortable with 15% to 20% of our total gas production as a company being priced under international prices. The concept of being LNG-ready means that we want to be connected to the right infrastructure, have the contracts in place. And then as the U.S. market grows from approximately 100, 101 Bcf market today to 110 over the next few years and eventually towards 115 or 120, we want to be in a position to help supply that growth. That -- the decision around growing is far out in the future. We want to -- the concept of being LNG-ready is to be in a position that if the economics of supplying that growth are attractive, we can choose to do it.

是的。我認為我們的信息非常明確和一致，即作為一家按照國際價格定價的公司，我們對 15% 到 20% 的天然氣總產量感到滿意。液化天然氣就緒的概念意味著我們希望連接到正確的基礎設施，簽訂合同。然後隨著美國市場從今天的大約 100、101 Bcf 市場增長到未來幾年的 110，並最終達到 115 或 120，我們希望能夠幫助提供這種增長。那——關於增長的決定在未來還很遙遠。我們希望 - 準備好液化天然氣的概念是，如果提供這種增長的經濟效益具有吸引力，我們就可以選擇這樣做。

This concludes our question-and-answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to Nick Dell'Osso for any closing remarks.

我們的問答環節到此結束。我想將會議轉回 Nick Dell'Osso 的閉幕詞。

Thanks again. Thanks, everybody, again, for the time this morning. Again, we're looking forward to the second half of the year here. As we go through the summer months, there's going to be plenty of volatility in the market and a lot of decisions that we think we have the flexibility to make in our business. We like that flexibility. We intend to use it. And we look forward to continuing to generate good returns for shareholders throughout all of these points of the cycle. Thanks again for your time, and we'll see everybody at conferences and through other engagements over the next couple of months.

再次感謝。再次感謝大家今天早上的時間。同樣，我們在這裡期待下半年。在我們度過夏季的幾個月中，市場將出現大量波動，並且我們認為我們可以靈活地在我們的業務中做出許多決定。我們喜歡這種靈活性。我們打算使用它。我們期待在周期的所有這些階段繼續為股東創造良好的回報。再次感謝您的寶貴時間，在接下來的幾個月裡，我們將在會議和其他活動中與大家見面。

The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation, and you may now disconnect.

會議現已結束。感謝您參加今天的演講，您現在可以斷開連接了。