Chesapeake Energy Corp (CHK) 2022 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good day, and welcome to the Chesapeake Energy Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2022 Earnings Conference Call and Webcast. (Operator Instructions) Please note, this event is being recorded.

美好的一天，歡迎來到切薩皮克能源第四季度和 2022 年全年收益電話會議和網絡直播。 （操作員說明）請注意，正在記錄此事件。

I would now like to turn the conference over to Chris Ayres, Vice President of Investor Relations and Treasurer. Please go ahead.

我現在想將會議轉交給投資者關係副總裁兼財務主管 Chris Ayres。請繼續。

Thank you, Betsy. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining our call today to discuss Chesapeake's Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2022 financial and operating results. Hopefully, you've had a chance to review our press release and the updated presentation that we posted to our website yesterday.

謝謝你，貝琪。大家早上好，感謝您今天加入我們的電話會議，討論切薩皮克的第四季度和 2022 年全年財務和經營業績。希望您有機會查看我們昨天發佈到我們網站上的新聞稿和更新的演示文稿。

During this morning's call, we will be making forward-looking statements, which consist of statements that cannot be confirmed by reference to existing information, including statements regarding our beliefs, goals, expectations, forecasts, projections and future performance and the assumptions underlying such statements. Please note there are a number of factors that will cause actual results to differ materially from our forward-looking statements, including the factors identified and discussed in our press release yesterday and in other SEC filings.

在今天上午的電話會議上，我們將做出前瞻性陳述，其中包括無法通過參考現有信息確認的陳述，包括關於我們的信念、目標、預期、預測、預測和未來業績的陳述以及此類陳述所依據的假設.請注意，有許多因素會導致實際結果與我們的前瞻性陳述產生重大差異，包括我們在昨天的新聞稿和其他 SEC 文件中確定和討論的因素。

Please recognize that except by required -- except where required by applicable law, we undertake no duty to update any forward-looking statements, and you should not place any undue reliance on such statements. We may also refer to some non-GAAP financial measures, which will help facilitate comparisons across periods and with peers. For any non-GAAP measure, we use a reconciliation to the nearest corresponding GAAP measure can be found on our website.

請認識到，除非有要求——除非適用法律要求，我們不承擔更新任何前瞻性陳述的義務，您不應過分依賴此類陳述。我們還可以參考一些非 GAAP 財務指標，這將有助於促進跨時期和與同行的比較。對於任何非 GAAP 衡量標準，我們使用與最接近的相應 GAAP 衡量標準的對賬，這些衡量標準可以在我們的網站上找到。

With me on the call today are Nick Dell'Osso, Mohit Singh and Josh Viets. Nick will give a brief overview of our results, and then we will open up the teleconference to Q&A. So with that, thank you again, and I'll now turn the teleconference over to Nick.

今天與我通話的有 Nick Dell'Osso、Mohit Singh 和 Josh Viets。尼克將簡要概述我們的結果，然後我們將打開電話會議進行問答。因此，再次感謝您，我現在將電話會議轉交給尼克。

Good morning, and thank you for joining our call. This morning, we're going to talk about 2 key announcements we made yesterday. First, we're pleased to highlight our fourth quarter results and 2023 outlook. Second, we announced the next significant step toward exiting our Eagle Ford asset. The fourth quarter finished off a strong year for Chesapeake. Production in capital were essentially in line with expectations and EBITDAX was slightly ahead.

早上好，感謝您加入我們的電話會議。今天早上，我們將討論昨天發布的 2 項重要公告。首先，我們很高興強調我們的第四季度業績和 2023 年展望。其次，我們宣布了退出 Eagle Ford 資產的下一個重要步驟。第四季度結束了切薩皮克強勁的一年。資本產出基本符合預期，EBITDAX 略微領先。

Based on those results and adjusted for the October 1 effective date of the Eagle Ford asset sales were delivering a dividend for the quarter of a $1.29 per share. Overall, in 2022, we delivered company record free cash flow, resulting in $2.3 billion in cash returned to shareholders in the form of dividends and buybacks. The second announcement yesterday was the $1.4 billion sale of our Black Oil Eagle Ford assets and Dimmit, LaSalle and McMullen counties to INEOS Energy. This is another important step as we solidify our focus on the premium rock returns and runway of our Marcellus and Haynesville assets.

根據這些結果並針對 Eagle Ford 資產銷售的 10 月 1 日生效日期進行調整，該季度的股息為每股 1.29 美元。總體而言，在 2022 年，我們實現了公司創紀錄的自由現金流，從而以股息和回購的形式向股東返還了 23 億美元的現金。昨天的第二項公告是將我們的 Black Oil Eagle Ford 資產以及迪米特、拉薩爾和麥克馬倫縣以 14 億美元的價格出售給英力士能源公司。這是另一個重要的步驟，因為我們鞏固了對 Marcellus 和 Haynesville 資產的優質岩石回報和跑道的關注。

We're pleased with the progress we have made to date in our Eagle Ford exit and look forward to completing the process. In aggregate, from the first 2 sales, we expect to receive approximately $1.7 billion in after-tax proceeds at closing with an incremental $450 million to come over the next few years.

我們對 Eagle Ford 退出迄今取得的進展感到滿意，並期待完成這一過程。總的來說，從前兩次銷售中，我們預計在交易結束時將獲得約 17 億美元的稅後收益，並在未來幾年內增加 4.5 億美元。

The proceeds will be used to drive value for shareholders by reducing debt to maintain our balance sheet strength and support our ongoing buyback program as we work to complete the remaining authorization, which sits at over $900 million. We are strong believers in the value of cash and liquidity in the soft market and the proceeds from the sales. In addition to the cash, we expect to generate from our operations will be a key strategic advantage as we continue to allocate capital in a prudent and value oriented manner with an eye on our ability to be countercyclical.

所得款項將用於通過減少債務來為股東創造價值，以維持我們的資產負債表實力，並支持我們正在進行的回購計劃，因為我們正在努力完成超過 9 億美元的剩餘授權。我們堅信軟市場中現金和流動性的價值以及銷售收益。除了現金，我們預計我們的運營產生的收益將成為一個關鍵的戰略優勢，因為我們將繼續以審慎和以價值為導向的方式分配資本，並著眼於我們的反週期能力。

a key strategic advantage as we continue to allocate capital in a prudent and value-oriented manner with an eye on our ability to be countercyclical.

這是一個關鍵的戰略優勢，因為我們將繼續以審慎和以價值為導向的方式配置資本，並著眼於我們的反週期能力。

Pro forma the sale of the Brazos Valley and black oil areas, Chesapeake will have approximately 21,000 barrels a day of oil and NGLs, and 80 million cubic feet a day of gas production remaining on our Eagle Ford position, which is in the rich gas window of the basin. We are actively engaged with several parties regarding these assets, which include acreage that is prospective for the attractive and maturing Upper Austin Chalk play, where we've delivered strong well results in recent months.

預估出售布拉索斯河谷和黑油區後，切薩皮克每天將擁有約 21,000 桶石油和液化天然氣，我們位於富氣窗口的伊格爾福特位置每天剩餘 8000 萬立方英尺的天然氣產量盆地的。我們正積極與多方就這些資產進行接觸，其中包括具有吸引力且日趨成熟的 Upper Austin Chalk 油田的種植面積，我們在最近幾個月取得了良好的業績。

As we planned our initial capital allocation for 2023, we are proactively addressing the macro challenges affecting our industry with year-over-year natural gas prices lowering while service costs remain inflated. Our preliminary capital allocation and outlook for the year clearly demonstrate we believe the prudent step is to show capital discipline and reduce our activity levels in the Marcellus and Haynesville. While we never wish for low prices, Chesapeake is built for the volatility we are experiencing today. We have the assets, balance sheet, cost structure and hedges to allocate capital prudently, allowing modest production declines and saving CapEx for better investments, including repurchasing our shares.

在我們計劃 2023 年的初始資本分配時，我們正在積極應對影響我們行業的宏觀挑戰，天然氣價格逐年下降，而服務成本仍然高漲。我們今年的初步資本分配和展望清楚地表明，我們認為謹慎的步驟是顯示資本紀律並減少我們在馬塞勒斯和海恩斯維爾的活動水平。雖然我們從不希望低價，但切薩皮克是為我們今天所經歷的波動而建造的。我們有資產、資產負債表、成本結構和對沖來審慎地分配資本，允許適度的產量下降並節省資本支出以進行更好的投資，包括回購我們的股票。

Overall, we're dropping 2 rigs in the Haynesville and 1 rig in the Marcellus as we move through the year. In addition, we're reducing our completion activity in the near term as the market is currently oversupplied with the warm winter we are experiencing in North America. Year-over-year, despite the inflationary environment, our annual drilling and completion CapEx will be modestly lower, but we expect to see only a slight production decline of approximately 2% in the Marcellus and Haynesville, allowing us to maintain our cash flow resiliency and continue our leading shareholder return profile.

總體而言，我們在這一年中將在 Haynesville 放棄 2 個鑽井平台，在 Marcellus 放棄 1 個鑽井平台。此外，由於北美正經歷暖冬，市場目前供過於求，因此我們正在減少近期的完工活動。與去年同期相比，儘管存在通貨膨脹環境，但我們的年度鑽井和完井資本支出將略有下降，但我們預計 Marcellus 和 Haynesville 的產量只會略微下降約 2%，從而使我們能夠保持現金流彈性並繼續我們領先的股東回報狀況。

We find ourselves in this position today, thanks to several important strategic actions taken over the last 2 years, including our well-timed Haynesville and Marcellus acquisitions, which bolstered the depth of our high-return, low-cost inventory as well as our decision to exit the Eagle Ford. All of this positions our company to provide consistent results and cash returns to shareholders as we move through this cycle and prepare for the increase in natural gas demand in the coming years from the growth in LNG export capacity.

我們今天處於這個位置，這要歸功於過去兩年採取的幾項重要戰略行動，包括我們恰逢其時的 Haynesville 和 Marcellus 收購，這加強了我們高回報、低成本庫存的深度以及我們的決定離開鷹灘。所有這些都使我們公司能夠在這個週期中為股東提供一致的結果和現金回報，並為未來幾年液化天然氣出口能力增長帶來的天然氣需求增長做準備。

Reducing activity today helps to ensure Chesapeake remains LNG ready to capture the value of strong growth and demand for gas in the coming years and preserves cash for us to allocate capital in a countercyclical manner, many in our industry have not achieved historically. We look forward to updating you on our continued progress, and I'm now happy to address your questions.

今天減少活動有助於確保切薩皮克保持液化天然氣準備好捕捉未來幾年強勁增長和天然氣需求的價值，並為我們保留現金以逆週期方式分配資本，我們行業中的許多人在歷史上都沒有實現過。我們期待向您通報我們的持續進展，現在我很樂意回答您的問題。

(Operator Instructions) The first question today comes from Zach Parham from JPMorgan.

（操作員說明）今天的第一個問題來自摩根大通的 Zach Parham。

I guess just on the buyback, you talked about being countercyclical with the buyback. You're going to have a significant amount of proceeds coming in shortly when the Brazos and the oil window sale closed, can you give us some thoughts about how you plan to utilize those proceeds kind of in the first half of '23 and into the back half of the year via the buyback, debt reduction and other potential uses?

我想就回購而言，你談到了回購的反週期性。當 Brazos 和油窗銷售結束後不久，你將獲得大量收益，你能給我們一些關於你計劃如何在 23 年上半年和 2019 年利用這些收益的想法嗎？通過回購、減債和其他潛在用途來回饋半年？

Well, we don't even have the cash yet. So we don't plan to announce very specific actions around the buyback other than just to note that we will have a lot of liquidity to pursue the buyback. We expect the market conditions to offer us some attractive opportunities to do it, and we want to be opportunistic with it. So we'll be patient. We'll let the market come to us. We think there's ample opportunity in the coming year to put this cash to work.

好吧，我們甚至還沒有現金。因此，我們不打算就回購宣布非常具體的行動，只是要注意我們將有大量流動性來進行回購。我們希望市場條件能為我們提供一些有吸引力的機會，我們希望抓住機會。所以我們會耐心等待。我們會讓市場來找我們。我們認為來年有足夠的機會將這筆現金投入使用。

Got it. And then my follow-up is just on well productivity. Within the industry, there's been a lot of talk about degradation of well productivity. Looking at some state data, it does seem like your well productivity has trended a bit lower in both the Marcellus and Haynesville in '22. In the slide deck, you did highlight a lower drawdown in the Haynesville, so maybe that's one of the drivers. But could you give us just some color on well productivity in general and how you expect productivity to trend in 2023 and in future years?

知道了。然後我的後續行動只是關於生產力。在行業內，有很多關於油井生產力下降的討論。查看一些州數據，似乎您在 22 年的 Marcellus 和 Haynesville 的油井生產率都有下降的趨勢。在幻燈片中，你確實強調了 Haynesville 的縮編較低，所以這可能是驅動因素之一。但是，您能否給我們一些關於油井生產力的總體情況以及您對 2023 年和未來幾年生產力趨勢的預期？

Zach, this is Josh. We've looked at this data as well. And of course, we recognize that the trends into 2022 did show a drop off and to address maybe the Haynesville first. We are looking at incremental drawdown strategies that will have an impact on early time rates and really, that starts to show up in the first 3 to 6 months of the production history. But really, we start to see something that looks like an incremental gain as you get out beyond 12 months.

扎克，這是喬希。我們也查看了這些數據。當然，我們認識到到 2022 年的趨勢確實顯示出下降趨勢，並且可能首先解決海恩斯維爾問題。我們正在研究將對早期利率產生影響的增量縮減策略，實際上，這會在生產歷史的前 3 到 6 個月內開始顯現。但實際上，當您離開 12 個月後，我們開始看到一些看起來像是增量收益的東西。

The other thing, just to remind you that's impacted our position within the Haynesville this past year. And I suspect in some others is the increased line pressures. And so with increased line pressures that does lead to lower IPs but ultimately flatter declines through the first 12 months of the year.

另一件事，只是提醒你，這影響了我們過去一年在海恩斯維爾的地位。我懷疑在其他一些情況下是線路壓力增加。因此，隨著線路壓力的增加，確實會導致 IP 降低，但最終會在今年的前 12 個月內趨於平緩。

In the Marcellus, I think the thing that we need to remember is that we've been operating the Marcellus for well over a decade. We've drilled over 700 wells within our Lower Marcellus core and these are unbelievable wells, really the best shale gas basin in the world. The other thing, I think, to point out as you look back at historical trends in 2020, 2021, really across the industry, we were having to high-grade locations and this is no different for Chesapeake. And so we absolutely drilled the very best wells with a relatively modest program in the heart of our core. And so I think if you were to look back and compare our 2022 well results to something in the 2018 and 2019 time frame, you'll actually see productivity that's on par.

在 Marcellus 中，我認為我們需要記住的是，我們已經經營 Marcellus 十多年了。我們在 Lower Marcellus 岩心中鑽了 700 多口井，這些井令人難以置信，是世界上真正最好的頁岩氣盆地。另一件事，我想，當你回顧 2020 年、2021 年的歷史趨勢時，要指出的是，實際上在整個行業中，我們不得不去高檔地點，這對切薩皮克來說也不例外。因此，我們絕對在我們核心的中心用相對適度的計劃鑽了最好的井。因此，我認為，如果您回顧並將我們 2022 年的油井結果與 2018 年和 2019 年的結果進行比較，您實際上會看到生產力相當。

In fact, on an absolute basis, when you adjust for lateral lengths, you'll see a slight advantage on productivity. And so really, that's going to be our focus going forward is extending laterals. We've done so by increasing our lateral length by 65% in the Marcellus over the last 5 years, and we're going to continue to do that.

事實上，在絕對基礎上，當您調整橫向長度時，您會發現生產率略有優勢。所以真的，這將是我們未來的重點是擴展橫向。在過去的 5 年裡，我們通過將 Marcellus 的橫向長度增加了 65% 來做到這一點，我們將繼續這樣做。

The next question comes from Nitin Kumar with Mizuho.

下一個問題來自瑞穗的 Nitin Kumar。

Nick, I'm going to start with the kind of elephant in the room, gas this morning, reach $2. What is your macro outlook for gas now that you're transforming into a more pure-play gas company. Curious how you're looking at both the near term and the medium term?

尼克，我要從房間裡的那種大像開始，今天早上加油，達到 2 美元。既然您正在轉型為一家更純粹的天然氣公司，那麼您對天然氣的宏觀前景是什麼？想知道您如何看待近期和中期嗎？

Our macro outlook for gas hasn't changed. We are very bullish, the long-term natural gas fundamentals, and we've been cautious to 2023 setup for quite some time, and we've referenced that throughout last year. We noted that the supply-demand dynamics were trending in a manner that suggested supply was going to outpace demand. That has clearly happened and then has been exacerbated by what's been a pretty low demand winter weather set up.

我們對天然氣的宏觀前景沒有改變。我們非常看好天然氣的長期基本面，我們對 2023 年的設置持謹慎態度已有一段時間，我們在去年全年都提到了這一點。我們注意到供需動態的趨勢表明供應將超過需求。這顯然已經發生，然後由於冬季天氣需求相當低而加劇。

In terms of near term, I think we're at a pretty interesting point. We're making some changes to our program. We've seen a handful of others make changes to their program, hard to really know what the rest of the industry will do. You have variables like the associated gas from the Permian that as pipeline capacity comes on, that gas is going to show up to market, and you don't really have any structural demand growth for at least a year. And really in the end of '24 and into '25 is where you start to expect LNG export capacity to expand and so that's how we're going to think about what our production profile should do. We should be flat to down a little bit because the market is currently oversupplied until that structural demand growth shows up.

就近期而言，我認為我們正處於一個非常有趣的時刻。我們正在對我們的計劃進行一些更改。我們已經看到其他一些人對他們的計劃進行了更改，但很難真正知道該行業的其他人會做什麼。你有變量，比如二疊紀的伴生氣，隨著管道容量的增加，這種天然氣將出現在市場上，而且你至少在一年內沒有任何結構性需求增長。實際上，在 24 世紀末和 25 世紀末，您開始預計液化天然氣出口能力將擴大，因此我們將如何考慮我們的生產概況應該做什麼。我們應該持平或略有下降，因為在結構性需求增長出現之前，市場目前供過於求。

We'll never be perfect to timing that. But we do think that there are some long-term trends here that we can plan for. And then I would just note that while this morning's gas price dipped below $2 and that is a low level and nobody likes that, we're really not bothered by the short-term dip in gas prices, because we do expect it to be short term. We are very bullish in the long-term fundamentals. We think that the projects that are coming online will represent true incremental demand, the demand for natural gas internationally with the competitive economics of shale gas in the U.S., is strong. We expect it to remain strong.

我們永遠不會完美地把握時機。但我們確實認為這裡有一些我們可以規劃的長期趨勢。然後我只想指出，雖然今天早上的汽油價格跌破 2 美元，這是一個低水平，沒有人喜歡這樣，但我們真的不會為汽油價格的短期下跌所困擾，因為我們確實預計它會很短學期。我們非常看好長期基本面。我們認為即將上線的項目將代表真正的增量需求，國際上對天然氣的需求以及美國頁岩氣的競爭經濟性非常強勁。我們預計它會保持強勁。

We get a lot of questions about whether or not the war in Ukraine could end and what might happen with that. We actually think the demand for gas remains resilient regardless. There's plenty of demand for natural gas growth around the world that we don't actually think that would have a meaningful negative impact to this long-term trend that we see.

我們收到很多關於烏克蘭戰爭是否會結束以及可能會發生什麼的問題。事實上，我們認為無論如何，天然氣需求仍然具有彈性。世界各地對天然氣增長的需求很大，我們實際上認為這不會對我們看到的這種長期趨勢產生有意義的負面影響。

So we remain bullish beyond 2024. And we think we can manage through a flattish period until then, and we can do so in a way where we are optimizing cash flows and creating great returns for shareholders along the way.

因此，我們在 2024 年之後仍然看漲。我們認為我們可以度過一個持平的時期，直到那時，我們可以通過優化現金流並在此過程中為股東創造豐厚回報的方式來做到這一點。

Great. My other question is around the momentum spending. It was a little bit higher than we expected for 2023. Sounds like it's just an acceleration. But could you maybe talk a little bit about what drove that exploration? And any specific milestones we should be looking for as that project starts ramping up and in terms of getting gas to that pipeline?

偉大的。我的另一個問題是關於勢頭支出。這比我們對 2023 年的預期要高一點。聽起來這只是一種加速。但是你能談談是什麼推動了這種探索嗎？隨著該項目開始加速發展以及向該管道輸送天然氣，我們應該尋找任何具體的里程碑？

The pipeline is on schedule as originally contemplated to come online in the fourth quarter of 2024, project has gone really, really well so far. We're very pleased with our partnership with momentum here. And all that has happened is just the timing of the cash calls has changed a bit. The total budget hasn't changed at all. So we're thrilled with this investment.

管道按原計劃於 2024 年第四季度上線，項目進展順利。我們對與 momentum 的合作夥伴關係感到非常滿意。所發生的一切只是現金電話的時間發生了一些變化。總預算根本沒有改變。所以我們對這項投資感到興奮。

The next question comes from Umang Choudhary with Goldman Sachs.

下一個問題來自高盛的 Umang Choudhary。

Thanks for sharing your thoughts on the macro. You highlighted being disciplined to the changing natural gas conditions, focusing on free cash flow and conserving our undeveloped inventory for better pricing. What flexibility do you have in your service contracts to respond to changes in gas prices? And maybe you can touch on what you're hearing from non-operated partners in the Haynesville to recent gas price shifts.

感謝您分享您對宏觀的看法。您強調了對不斷變化的天然氣狀況的紀律處分，關注自由現金流並保存我們未開發的庫存以更好地定價。您在服務合同中有多大的靈活性來應對天然氣價格的變化？也許您可以談談您從 Haynesville 的非運營合作夥伴那裡聽到的關於最近天然氣價格變化的信息。

Umang, on the service side, we are absolutely exercising flexibility in the first half of the year with dropping 3 rigs throughout in the first 6 months of the 2023 calendar year. We have a lot of flexibility on the frac crew side. We're going to be flexing between 2 and 4 frac crews throughout the course of the year. Only one of those is actually under a longer-term contract, and that's less than 12 months remaining on that.

Umang，在服務方面，我們在今年上半年絕對會保持靈活性，在 2023 年的前 6 個月內減少 3 台鑽井平台。我們在壓裂船員方面有很大的靈活性。在這一年中，我們將在 2 到 4 個壓裂工作人員之間靈活調整。其中只有一個實際上處於長期合同之下，而且還剩下不到 12 個月的時間。

We do have some longer-term rig contracts, but we do think that we're in a pretty well position to manage those as we work through the course of the year. And to date, we're not really going to incur any incremental penalties on the rigs that we're dropping. It's a pretty modest amount. But that's something that will continue to work as we go through the year.

我們確實有一些長期鑽井平台合同，但我們確實認為我們在全年的工作中處於很好的位置來管理這些合同。到目前為止，我們不會真的對我們正在放棄的鑽機進行任何增量處罰。這是一個非常適中的數額。但隨著我們度過這一年，這將繼續發揮作用。

As far as non-operated rigs, we are starting to see some signs of operators pulling back activity, specifically in the Haynesville. It's been primarily showing up on the -- with the privates to date. We are continuing to see new ballots come in the door from some of our non-op partners. And so we're going to continue to monitor that activity. But we are expecting operators to start pulling back with the weakness in the gas pricing we see today.

至於非運營鑽井平台，我們開始看到運營商撤回活動的一些跡象，特別是在海恩斯維爾。迄今為止，它主要出現在私人場合。我們繼續看到我們的一些非行動合作夥伴收到新的選票。因此，我們將繼續監控該活動。但我們預計運營商將開始因我們今天看到的天然氣定價疲軟而退縮。

Got it. That's really helpful. Maybe a quick follow-up. I mean if you look at EIA data, they show that more than 600 Haynesville drilled and uncompleted wells currently. At what price levels do you expect these drilled and uncompleted wells to be turned into sales? Both for you as well as for the industry?

知道了。這真的很有幫助。也許快速跟進。我的意思是，如果您查看 EIA 數據，它們會顯示海恩斯維爾目前有 600 多口鑽井和未完工的井。您預計這些已鑽井和未完工的油井將在什麼價格水平上轉化為銷售額？對您和整個行業而言？

Umang, it's Nick. I'll take that. When we look at that, we don't believe that, that DUC build is anything more than the working inventory DUC build associated with the rig count growth over the last couple of years. And there's always a little bit of inefficiency for the industry when a bunch of rigs were thrown in. So we think cycle times probably slowed down a little bit. But when we take the total DUCs and we move off the DUCs that are probably more mature, the DUCs that are aged, and so they're not likely to get turned in line. And then we think about how many rigs have been running and what the cycle time is and how there's probably been some slippage in that cycle time with increased activity, we think this is really probably the working inventory.

烏芒，是尼克。我會接受的。當我們看到這一點時，我們不相信，DUC 構建不僅僅是與過去幾年鑽機數量增長相關的工作庫存 DUC 構建。當一堆鑽機被投入時，這個行業總是有點效率低下。所以我們認為周期時間可能會放慢一點。但是，當我們獲取總 DUC 時，我們會去掉可能更成熟的 DUC，即老化的 DUC，因此它們不太可能排成一行。然後我們考慮有多少台鑽機在運行，循環時間是多少，以及隨著活動的增加，該循環時間可能會出現一些下滑，我們認為這真的可能是工作庫存。

So it will be interesting to see as producers drop rigs, do they attempt to maintain their cycle times and turn those wells in line in other words, reducing that DUC count? Or do they hold back on completion crews and allow those DUCs to sit for a little bit longer. It will be a mix. It's our assumption. And so we expect that DUC count to come a little bit lower through the year. You can think about it as producers choosing to bring those wells online or you can think about it as not adding new DUCs as the DUCs that are there continue to just get warm down.

因此，有趣的是，當生產商放棄鑽井平台時，他們是否試圖維持他們的循環時間並使這些井保持一致，換句話說，減少 DUC 數量？還是他們會阻止完成工作人員並讓那些 DUC 多坐一會兒。這將是一個混合。這是我們的假設。因此，我們預計 DUC 數量在今年會略有下降。您可以將其視為生產商選擇將這些油井上線，或者您可以將其視為不添加新的 DUC，因為那裡的 DUC 會繼續變暖。

I would say that in the full cycle economics of the Haynesville, we certainly see that it's prudent to pull back capital, and we think we're seeing others do the same thing. We're making money on the capital that we are investing but the margins are not nearly on a full cycle basis what they were historically, and they do rely on some of that contango in the strip playing out.

我想說的是，在海恩斯維爾的全週期經濟學中，我們當然看到撤回資本是謹慎的做法，我們認為我們看到其他人也在做同樣的事情。我們正在通過我們投資的資本賺錢，但利潤率幾乎沒有像歷史上的那樣在整個週期的基礎上，而且他們確實依賴於地帶中的一些正價差。

Obviously, if prices were to stay where they are this morning and all that contango were to roll down to the prompt, you would have a very different economic outlook for the Haynesville, and I think a lot of activity was shut in. But I don't expect that to happen. I think the contango is there for a reason. And so I expect there will be some conversion of those DUCs. I just don't expect that there will be as much activation of new wells to maintain that same cadence.

顯然，如果價格保持在今天早上的水平，並且所有的正價差都下降到提示，那麼你對海恩斯維爾的經濟前景會有截然不同的看法，我認為很多活動都被關閉了。但我不期望那會發生。我認為存在溢價是有原因的。因此，我預計這些 DUC 會有一些轉換。我只是不希望有那麼多的新油井激活來保持同樣的節奏。

The next question comes from Doug Leggate with Bank of America.

下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Doug Leggate。

Nick, can you walk us through the thoughts on the remaining sale in the Eagle Ford line of sight, if you can, to the extent you can. And the implications of what you showed is what looked like some pretty strong wells out of the Cotton Valley, what does that say about your thinking on the value of that asset relative to the sales that you've achieved so far?

尼克，如果可以的話，你能不能盡可能地告訴我們關於鷹福特視線剩餘銷售的想法。你展示的內容的含義是看起來像棉花谷的一些非常強大的井，這說明你對資產價值相對於你迄今為止取得的銷售額的看法是什麼？

Yes. Doug, I'll chime in here and the others may have some things to say as well. First, just to make sure it's clear, it's the Upper Austin Chalk, not the Cotton Valley.

是的。道格，我會在這裡插話，其他人也可能有話要說。首先，為了確保清楚，這是 Upper Austin Chalk，而不是 Cotton Valley。

Sorry, my apologize, that's right. My apologies.

對不起，我的道歉，是的。我很抱歉。

No worries. So we have drilled some good wells there. And we knew last year as we engaged with buyers that, that would be a pretty interesting component of how people thought about valuation and thought about the value of the PDP relative to the value of the upside available. I think the Chalk wells that we drilled are pretty attractive and confirmatory of the upside value associated with the asset. We're still in an A&D market overall that doesn't end up putting a ton of value on undrilled locations. And so we've been willing to be a little bit patient here and let those wells come online.

不用擔心。所以我們在那裡鑽了一些好井。去年我們在與買家接觸時就知道，這將是人們如何看待估值以及 PDP 價值相對於可用上行價值的一個非常有趣的組成部分。我認為我們鑽探的 Chalk 井非常有吸引力，並且證實了與該資產相關的上行價值。總體而言，我們仍處於 A&D 市場，最終不會在未鑽探的地點投入大量價值。因此，我們一直願意在這裡耐心一點，讓這些油井上線。

We've really just released these well results to the public now. And so we'll be staying engaged with the interested parties. And there are quite a few interested in this asset to understand what those chalk wells look like and understand if it fits for them as an investment. But we don't need to be in a rush. We've got plenty of proceeds coming in. We're making progress on the exit strategically, and we'll be thoughtful about achieving a good result here. But we are actively engaged still with several interested parties and getting great feedback on what this asset looks like and what these incremental results mean.

我們現在真的剛剛向公眾發布了這些油井結果。因此，我們將與感興趣的各方保持聯繫。並且有很多人對這項資產感興趣，以了解這些粉筆井的外觀並了解它是否適合作為一項投資。但我們不需要著急。我們有大量收益進入。我們在退出戰略上取得進展，我們會考慮在這裡取得好的結果。但我們仍在與幾個感興趣的各方積極接觸，並就此資產的外觀以及這些增量結果的含義獲得了很好的反饋。

I don't want to start with a rumor that you're selling Haynesville, so my apologize for speaking. My follow-up is really a housekeeping question, so I apologize for this, it may be for Mohit. The transport costs, are there any MVC or other type of midstream obligations that have -- there's some kind of ramification from the decline in production, monies decline admittedly, but it just looked to us that your transport costs were ticking up a bit, I wonder if the 2 were related. So that's my follow-up.

我不想從謠言開始說你要賣掉海恩斯維爾，所以我為發言道歉。我的後續真的是一個看家問題，所以我為此道歉，可能是為了Mohit。運輸成本，是否有任何 MVC 或其他類型的中游義務 - 產量下降會產生某種後果，誠然資金下降，但在我們看來，您的運輸成本略有上升，我想知道這兩個是否相關。這就是我的後續行動。

Doug, this is Mohit. None that we are concerned about at this point, I mean the MVCs historically that we have discussed have been in the Eagle Ford and as yesterday's announcement to INEOS, so the buyer is stepping into those obligations for that package. There are some MVCs in the rich package also, but our production is way ahead of those minimum volume commitments. So any -- and then when you start looking at Haynesville, there's quite a bit of uncommitted volumes that we had, and we've proactively been looking to try and get flow assurance through transport contracts and firm sales, which you start building up towards the overall projection of the volume that you're forecasting and trying to get flow assurance for all those molecules. But overall, when you look across the portfolio, Doug, nothing that bothers us at this point from an overall obligation perspective.

道格，這是莫希特。在這一點上我們並不關心，我的意思是我們討論過的歷史上的 MVC 已經在 Eagle Ford 中，並且正如昨天向 INEOS 宣布的那樣，因此買方正在履行該包的這些義務。 rich package 中也有一些 MVC，但我們的生產遠遠超過了那些最小數量承諾。所以任何 - 然後當你開始看海恩斯維爾時，我們有相當多的未承諾數量，我們一直在積極尋求通過運輸合同和公司銷售來獲得流量保證，你開始建立這些您正在預測並試圖為所有這些分子獲得流量保證的體積的總體預測。但總的來說，當你查看投資組合時，道格，從整體義務的角度來看，目前沒有什麼困擾我們。

The next question comes from Matt Portillo with TPH.

下一個問題來自 TPH 的 Matt Portillo。

Mohit, maybe just a question, starting out with the hedge book. Great to see you guys added quite a bit in 2024. Just curious how you're feeling about your hedge position now, looks like relative to your public peers, you're in a position of strength given your coverage in '23 and in '24. But just curious how you guys are thinking about the '24 curve today.

Mohit，也許只是一個問題，從對沖賬簿開始。很高興看到你們在 2024 年增加了很多。只是好奇你們現在對自己的對沖頭寸感覺如何，看起來相對於你們的公眾同行，鑑於你們在 23 年和 20 世紀的報導，你們處於強勢地位24.但只是好奇你們今天如何看待 24 世紀的曲線。

Yes. Thanks for that question, Matt. it's interesting when things were -- when prices were going up, we heard a lot of pushback from our investors that we should not hedge as much. Now what we did do is we stayed consistent and our plan is to hedge the wedge as we have described before, Matt, when we're making capital investment decisions now, the production comes on 9 to 12 months.

是的。謝謝你提出這個問題，馬特。有趣的是，當價格上漲時，我們從投資者那裡聽到了很多反對意見，認為我們不應該對沖太多。現在我們所做的是保持一致，我們的計劃是像我們之前描述的那樣對沖楔子，馬特，當我們現在做出資本投資決策時，生產將持續 9 到 12 個月。

Later on, we want some certainty on the cash flow from that production. And that's why we hedge. So what you have seen in the disclosure that came out yesterday, we've added about 360 Bcf of new hedges since our last disclosure. We have done that both for 2023 and into 2024. So we feel pretty good about our exposure there and our coverage. What it does do is provide us downside protection, which underpins the commitment that we have towards shareholder returns.

稍後，我們希望確定該產品的現金流量。這就是我們進行對沖的原因。所以你在昨天發布的披露中看到，自上次披露以來，我們已經增加了大約 360 Bcf 的新對沖。我們在 2023 年和 2024 年都做到了這一點。因此，我們對在那裡的風險敞口和覆蓋範圍感到非常滿意。它所做的是為我們提供下行保護，這鞏固了我們對股東回報的承諾。

Perfect. And then a follow-up question, just maybe a bit of a longer-term view on the market. Nick, you talked about being well positioned in the Haynesville to meet a surge in demand from LNG takeaway coming on, the basin as a whole, I think the industry doesn't have as good of an acreage position as you and maybe 1 or 2 of your public peers have in terms of inventory depth and quality. Just curious how you view the cost curve in the Haynesville over time, even in your portfolio, there are wells that need something closer to $3 to $4 an Mcf to make a return. So I'm curious if you think the cost curve in the Haynesville over time is going to take higher as inventory depletes from maybe some of your smaller peers that are running a lot of activity in the basin.

完美的。然後是一個後續問題，可能只是對市場的一些長期看法。尼克，你談到在海恩斯維爾處於有利位置，以滿足液化天然氣外賣需求的激增，整個盆地，我認為該行業的種植面積不如你，也許 1 或 2您的公共同行在庫存深度和質量方面擁有。只是好奇您如何看待 Haynesville 隨著時間推移的成本曲線，即使在您的投資組合中，有些油井需要每千立方英尺 3 到 4 美元才能獲得回報。所以我很好奇你是否認為海恩斯維爾的成本曲線隨著時間的推移會走高，因為庫存可能會從一些在盆地進行大量活動的較小的同行中耗盡。

Well, I think as the Haynesville goes in the way of cost curve, will the U.S. market go in the way of cost curve because the Haynesville is going to be the leading asset to deliver the volume growth into LNG. So you're spot on, Matt. The growth required for LNG is not going to be met by the very best acreage in the Haynesville alone. Now we and a couple of others do own that very best acreage. And so the relative advantages those with the best cost structure, the best full cycle return investment points for that gas are going to win. And we think this is setting up for exactly that. We think that you're going to have some higher cost areas of the Haynesville developed. We think you're probably going to have some higher cost areas away from the Haynesville developed as well.

嗯，我認為隨著 Haynesville 沿著成本曲線前進，美國市場是否會沿著成本曲線前進，因為 Haynesville 將成為 LNG 產量增長的主要資產。所以你說對了，馬特。僅海恩斯維爾最好的種植面積無法滿足液化天然氣所需的增長。現在我們和其他幾個人確實擁有最好的種植面積。因此，那些具有最佳成本結構的相對優勢、該氣體的最佳全週期回報投資點將獲勝。我們認為這正是為此做的準備。我們認為您將開發 Haynesville 的一些成本較高的區域。我們認為您可能還會開發一些遠離 Haynesville 的成本較高的區域。

One thing that we do point to as an important trend there is that we think that one of the reasons you will continue to have some of these higher cost areas developed readily in a rising price environment, and you probably will have less exploration or new play development than you've seen in past cycles like this is that the build-out of infrastructure is a massive challenge in the United States today. We would love to see more infrastructure built in Northeast U.S., where there is vast resources of gas that will wait for room and infrastructure to be delivered to market.

我們確實指出的一個重要趨勢是，我們認為，在價格上漲的環境下，您將繼續開發這些成本較高的區域的原因之一，您可能會減少勘探或新遊戲與你在過去的周期中看到的發展相比，基礎設施的建設在當今美國是一個巨大的挑戰。我們希望看到在美國東北部建設更多的基礎設施，那裡擁有豐富的天然氣資源，等待空間和基礎設施交付給市場。

If we saw more pipe built throughout all of Appalachia, including the area that we operate in Northeast Pennsylvania as well as Southwest Appalachia. I think it changed the game on how the dynamics of the cost curve for U.S. gas works. But we don't see that as a likely outcome in the near term, aside from maybe Mountain Valley, which is pretty close. We'd really like to see that come online and think that there's still a reasonable chance that it will given how close it is and how much the country needs the gas.

如果我們看到在整個阿巴拉契亞地區建造更多的管道，包括我們在賓夕法尼亞東北部和阿巴拉契亞西南部經營的地區。我認為它改變了美國天然氣成本曲線動態變化的遊戲規則。但我們認為短期內不太可能出現這種結果，除了可能非常接近的山谷。我們真的很想看到它上線，並認為它仍然有合理的機會，因為它離我們有多近，而且這個國家需要多少天然氣。

But new projects are going to be hard until there is a fundamental change in the social and political views of infrastructure in this country, not just for natural gas, but for really all forms of energy and all forms of infrastructure. And that needs to happen because until it does, we're not going to deliver to consumers the most efficient form of energy product that they can have. And we think that's an important trend that will play out. But until it does, we see that our company sits in a great position being overall the lowest on the cost structure for full cycle investment to activate natural gas.

但是，在這個國家對基礎設施的社會和政治觀點發生根本性變化之前，新項目將很難開展，不僅是天然氣，而且是所有形式的能源和所有形式的基礎設施。這需要發生，因為在它發生之前，我們不會向消費者提供他們可以擁有的最有效形式的能源產品。我們認為這是一個將會發揮作用的重要趨勢。但在此之前，我們看到我們公司處於有利地位，在激活天然氣的全週期投資成本結構中整體最低。

The next question comes from Subhasish Chandra with Benchmark.

下一個問題來自 Benchmark 的 Subhasish Chandra。

Nick, I think you might have references that you don't think curtailment conditions are likely based on the shape of the curve. Is that a fair comment in the Marcellus and Haynesville, or do you think there could be some near-term physical constraints that are imminent.

尼克，我想你可能會提到你認為削減條件可能不會基於曲線的形狀。 Marcellus 和 Haynesville 的評論是否公平，或者您是否認為近期可能會出現一些迫在眉睫的身體限制。

Whether it's physical constraints or producers just deciding to pull back volumes, we could sell gas almost every shoulder season. And given the price set up that's in front of us now, we're going to expect to curtail some gas in the shoulder season. I had no idea what other producers will do, but they're going to be staring at similar economics to us. So it wouldn't surprise me if they did the same. But that's a common occurrence for us. We get full pipes, we get an economic flow on certain days, and we have the processes set up internally to day-by-day, hour-by-hour, decide what gas to flow and whatnot. We'll proactively manage that this year, just like we do every year.

無論是物理限制還是生產商只是決定減少產量，我們幾乎每個淡季都可以出售天然氣。考慮到現在擺在我們面前的價格，我們預計會在平季減少一些汽油。我不知道其他製作人會做什麼，但他們會盯著與我們類似的經濟學。因此，如果他們也這樣做，我也不會感到驚訝。但這對我們來說是經常發生的事情。我們得到了滿滿的管道，我們在某些日子裡得到了經濟的流量，我們在內部設置了流程，每天、每小時、決定要流動什麼氣體等等。今年我們將積極管理它，就像我們每年所做的那樣。

Okay. Okay. That's helpful. And then, I guess, second, so the investment Marcellus versus Haynesville sort of the inverse of the economics of the 2 places, right, Marcellus being superior, and I suppose that part of your LNG-ready strategy, is there a point though where that may be the carrying costs of those -- of the relative economics is too great, and we see additional changes to CapEx.

好的。好的。這很有幫助。然後，我想，其次，投資 Marcellus 與 Haynesville 有點像這兩個地方的經濟倒轉，對，Marcellus 更優越，我想你的液化天然氣就緒戰略的一部分，有一點雖然在哪裡這可能是那些的持有成本 - 相對經濟學太大了，我們看到資本支出的其他變化。

I'm not sure exactly what you're asking me, Subhasish. Do you think -- are you asking me if we pull back more capital in the Haynesville in favor of more capital in the Marcellus?

我不確定你到底在問我什麼，Subhasish。你認為 - 你是在問我我們是否會撤回 Haynesville 的更多資本以支持 Marcellus 的更多資本？

Yes. I think so the Marcellus being superior economics, I think it's guiding -- you're guiding for declining volumes there, but flat volumes in the Haynesville. Is that fair? And if that's the case, the Marcellus economics is superior, which might argue that you keep volumes there flat allow Haynesville to dissipate, but you're probably not because of the LNG-ready strategy? And if at some point, you reconsider those economics?

是的。我認為馬塞勒斯是卓越的經濟學，我認為它是指導性的——你指導那裡的交易量下降，但海恩斯維爾的交易量持平。這公平嗎？如果是這樣的話，Marcellus 經濟學是優越的，這可能會爭辯說，你保持那裡的體積持平允許 Haynesville 消散，但你可能不是因為液化天然氣就緒戰略？如果在某個時候，您會重新考慮這些經濟學？

Yes, I don't think that's actually right. We're looking at a pretty -- it's closer to flat in the Marcellus with a little bit of a decline in the Haynesville. So maybe we can walk you through that math after the call. But directionally, we're, I would say, following the economics right now, but the 1 rig pullback in the Marcellus is it's as much about optimizing how we spend and managing the logistics of development and then pressures in the gathering system as it is anything else. So we expect a very modest change in flow there.

是的，我認為這實際上是不對的。我們正在尋找一個漂亮的 - 它在 Marcellus 中接近持平，在 Haynesville 中略有下降。因此，也許我們可以在通話後帶您完成該數學計算。但在方向上，我想說，我們現在正在關注經濟學，但 Marcellus 的 1 鑽機回撤與優化我們的支出方式和管理開發物流以及收集系統中的壓力一樣重要還要別的嗎。因此，我們預計那裡的流量會有非常適度的變化。

Okay. Never mind. That makes a ton more sense, and just finally, is there a cash on hand sort of number that we could be -- we should be looking at?

好的。沒關係。這更有意義，最後，手頭是否有我們應該關注的現金數量？

Yes. I mean the minimum -- since we have ample liquidity, which is available through our revolving credit facility, I mean, the minimum cash balance that we'd like to keep on hand is the minimum, Subhasish.

是的。我的意思是最低限度——因為我們有充足的流動性，可以通過我們的循環信貸機制獲得，我的意思是，我們希望手頭保留的最低現金餘額是最低限度，Subhasish。

Next question comes from Noel Parks with Tuohy Brothers.

下一個問題來自 Noel Parks 和 Tuohy Brothers。

Just a couple of things. I wondered, with the Eagle Ford divestiture happening as we go through the year. I just wonder, do you have any thoughts on just what the pacing might be like with G&A, I don't know if there are transaction costs that will be embedded that might be in the mix for a while. But maybe if you have a rough idea of what quarter we might get to serve a pretty normalized G&A after the divestments are taken into account?

只是幾件事。我想知道，隨著我們經歷這一年，Eagle Ford 資產剝離正在發生。我只是想知道，您是否對 G&A 的節奏有什麼想法，我不知道是否會嵌入交易成本，這些成本可能會持續一段時間。但是，如果您大致了解在考慮撤資後我們可能會在哪個季度提供相當正常的 G&A 服務？

No. We'll have a handful of changes to our business as a result of the sale of this size. We do have a very long transition services agreement with INEOS that will be in place. They do not have a material upstream business in the U.S. And so we will be aiding them as they create that organization. So it will take a while for us to sort through all of that. But we'll have some underlying changes to our business as a result, and you'll see that play through.

不會。由於出售這種規模，我們的業務將發生一些變化。我們確實與 INEOS 簽訂了一份很長的過渡服務協議，該協議將到位。他們在美國沒有重要的上游業務，因此我們將在他們創建該組織時幫助他們。所以我們需要一段時間來整理所有這些。但是我們的業務將因此發生一些根本性的變化，你會看到這些變化。

Great. And with your discussion in the release about making some adjustments to the rig count, and you also mentioned you saw other operators some signs of slowing. I'm just curious, have you -- well, I guess 2 things, have you gotten any fresh body language from your vendors around -- how they're sounding around pricing. I'm just curious, maybe when your next test case is going to be as far as having services where a contract is close to expiring, you might be going out for a bit and have a chance to sort of test the market on pricing.

偉大的。你在新聞稿中討論了對鑽機數量進行一些調整，你還提到你看到其他運營商出現了一些放緩的跡象。我只是好奇，你有沒有——好吧，我猜有兩件事，你有沒有從你的供應商那裡得到任何新鮮的肢體語言——他們是如何談論定價的。我只是好奇，也許當你的下一個測試案例將提供合同即將到期的服務時，你可能會出去一段時間並有機會在定價方面測試市場。

Yes. So on the inflation question specifically, at this point, just with the oil commodity markets remaining somewhat constructive, we're simply not seeing much softening in service costs to date. There are some areas that we expect to pull back as we get into the second part of the year. One of those is OCTG. But right now, as we look at our inflationary estimates, we do expect to see some year-over-year inflation in the Haynesville, probably something pushing 10% on a cost per foot basis, we would expect the Marcellus to really be less than 5% in the low single digits. But one of things I would point out to you is that as we look at our inflation, and we look at year-over-year inflation, it's important to us to think about it on a net basis.

是的。因此，特別是在通脹問題上，在這一點上，只要石油商品市場保持一定程度的建設性，迄今為止我們根本沒有看到服務成本有太大下降。隨著我們進入今年下半年，我們預計某些領域會回落。其中之一是 OCTG。但是現在，當我們查看我們的通貨膨脹估計時，我們確實預計 Haynesville 會出現一些同比通貨膨脹，按每英尺成本計算可能會上漲 10%，我們預計 Marcellus 確實會低於5% 的低個位數。但我要向你指出的一件事是，當我們審視我們的通貨膨脹率，我們審視同比通貨膨脹率時，重要的是我們要在淨基礎上考慮它。

So i.e., what are those things that we're doing to extract cost out of our business. And one of those is we will drill longer laterals this year where our lateral length is going to be up 6% to 7% year-over-year. And then the other thing that's going to impact it, again, if you think about on a net inflation basis, it's just a well mix. So for example, in the Haynesville last year, we tilled 70% of our wells were in the Haynesville 30% in the Bossier. This year, it's going to be much more weighted towards the Haynesville and less so towards the Bossier. It's about 90-10. So that also will impact our inflation.

也就是說，我們正在做哪些事情來從我們的業務中提取成本。其中之一是我們今年將鑽探更長的橫向井，我們的橫向長度將同比增長 6% 至 7%。然後另一件事會影響它，再次，如果你在淨通貨膨脹的基礎上考慮，它只是一個很好的組合。例如，去年在 Haynesville，我們 70% 的油井都在 Bossier 的 Haynesville 30%。今年，它將更傾向於海恩斯維爾，而不是博西爾。大約是 90-10。因此，這也會影響我們的通貨膨脹。

So when we look at things at a corporate level, that net inflation is somewhere in the low single digit. Now as far as flexibility with our contracts to go out and rebid work, we have a lot of flexibility, probably more so on the frac side. But again, I think until we start seeing any softening in the oil markets, we're not sure, at least we're not baking any material cost inflation as we worked into the back half of this year.

因此，當我們從企業層面看問題時，淨通貨膨脹率處於較低的個位數。現在，就我們的合同出去和重新投標工作的靈活性而言，我們有很大的靈活性，在壓裂方面可能更是如此。但同樣，我認為，在我們開始看到石油市場出現任何疲軟之前，我們不確定，至少我們在今年下半年工作時不會出現任何材料成本通脹。

The next question comes from Phillips Johnston with Capital One.

下一個問題來自 Capital One 的 Phillips Johnston。

First, just a clarification on your plans to reduce rig and frac activity for modeling purposes. In the release, you mentioned plans to drop 3 rigs in total, but maintaining your existing number of frac crews, but in the slide deck, you referenced dropping 2 rigs and 2 frac crews. It sounds like from your earlier comments that it is 3 rigs in total, but what's the plan on the frac crew side?

首先，只是澄清您為建模目的減少鑽機和壓裂活動的計劃。在新聞稿中，您提到計劃總共放棄 3 個鑽井平台，但保持現有的壓裂工作人員數量，但在幻燈片中，您提到放棄 2 個鑽井平台和 2 個壓裂工作人員。從您之前的評論來看，這聽起來像是總共 3 個鑽機，但壓裂人員方面的計劃是什麼？

So between Haynesville and Marcellus, we run -- would intend to run around 4 crews if we were at our current activity levels. But as we're dropping rigs, we do have plans to reduce the frac activity. So currently, we're at one frac crew in the Marcellus. Again, normally, we'd be running 2. So we dropped that frac crew. It will come back later in the year in the second half of the year for a period of time as we build up some inventory with the rigs that we're running today.

因此，在海恩斯維爾和馬塞勒斯之間，我們運行 - 如果我們處於當前的活動水平，我們打算運行大約 4 個工作人員。但隨著我們放棄鑽井平台，我們確實有計劃減少壓裂活動。所以目前，我們在 Marcellus 的一支壓裂船員隊伍中。同樣，通常情況下，我們會運行 2。所以我們放棄了壓裂工作人員。隨著我們用今天運行的鑽井平台建立一些庫存，它將在今年下半年晚些時候恢復一段時間。

In the Haynesville today, we're running 2 frac crews. We do expect as we work through the course of the year, that will drop the frac crew later in the second quarter. And then that frac crew would come back late in the third quarter. And so in aggregate, we do -- we see ourselves flexing between 2 and 4 frac crews in the gas basins throughout the course of the year.

今天在海恩斯維爾，我們有 2 個壓裂小組。我們確實預計，隨著我們全年的工作，這將在第二季度晚些時候減少壓裂人員。然後壓裂工作人員將在第三季度晚些時候回來。因此，總的來說，我們確實做到了——我們看到自己在整個一年中都在氣田中調動了 2 到 4 個壓裂小組。

Okay. Perfect. Makes sense. And then Slide 19, you highlight investment-grade achievement as a near-term value catalysts. Obviously, you can't directly control the timing there. But could you maybe touch on your recent conversations with the rating agencies? And what they still need to see before upgrading your ratings?

好的。完美的。說得通。然後是幻燈片 19，您強調投資級成就是近期價值催化劑。顯然，你不能直接控制那裡的時間。但您能否談談您最近與評級機構的對話？在升級您的評級之前，他們還需要看到什麼？

So this is Mohit. We remain actively engaged with the rating agencies. The influx of cash that we'll expect at the closing of these divestitures, that's considered positive from the rating agency perspective. Overall, what they need to see is just some more seasoning and time and financial policy and financial discipline, which we continue to demonstrate. They like all of that. It's just more a matter of time and continued engagement. And we remain confident, it's a matter of time until we get to investment rate.

這就是莫希特。我們仍然積極與評級機構合作。我們預計在這些資產剝離結束時會有大量現金湧入，從評級機構的角度來看，這被認為是積極的。總的來說，他們需要看到的只是更多的調味料和時間以及我們繼續展示的財務政策和財務紀律。他們喜歡這一切。這只是時間和持續參與的問題。我們仍然有信心，達到投資率只是時間問題。

The final question today comes from Nicholas Pope with Seaport Research.

今天的最後一個問題來自 Seaport Research 的 Nicholas Pope。

I was hoping you guys could talk a little bit about potential for M&A opportunities in Haynesville, Marcellus, Obviously, you're going to have -- if these 2 deals close, a fair amount of cash on hand, Gas prices are low. Just curious what the landscape looks like in both those areas, if that's something that you are targeting, you could target?

我希望你們能談一談海恩斯維爾併購機會的潛力，馬塞勒斯，顯然，你們將擁有——如果這兩項交易完成，手頭有相當數量的現金，天然氣價格很低。只是好奇這兩個區域的景觀是什麼樣的，如果這是您的目標，您可以瞄準嗎？

And also, on the Marcellus side, is there any limitation because of the structure of the ownership that 50% stake that limits if you being able to go out and add additional or is that not a factor?

而且，在 Marcellus 方面，是否有任何限制，因為 50% 的股權限制了你是否能夠出去添加額外的所有權結構，或者這不是一個因素？

Second question first, that's not a factor. First question, bigger question, what does the M&A landscape look like to us? It's interesting, I guess. When prices are low, people think hard about their strategy going forward and how they participate in the upside as prices inevitably rebound. I'm sure that the industry will have plenty of chatter around M&A as it has had for the last couple of years. We think consolidation is a trend in the industry that matters. We've been vocal about that. We think the opportunity to allocate capital across a bigger set of assets, therefore, constantly high grading how you allocate capital. is important, and we think you optimize cost structures when you do that, and we think you generate overall better returns for shareholders.

首先是第二個問題，這不是一個因素。第一個問題，更大的問題，併購前景對我們來說是什麼樣的？我想這很有趣。當價格處於低位時，人們會認真思考他們未來的策略以及他們如何在價格不可避免地反彈時參與上漲。我確信該行業將像過去幾年一樣圍繞併購進行大量討論。我們認為整合是重要行業的趨勢。我們一直在直言不諱。我們認為有機會在更大範圍的資產中分配資本，因此，不斷對您分配資本的方式進行高評級。很重要，我們認為這樣做可以優化成本結構，我們認為您可以為股東帶來更好的整體回報。

But I would just continue to note something that we've said all along, which is that M&A is hard -- and it's really hard to get buyers and sellers to agree on values that we would find would meet our nonnegotiables. And our nonnegotiables haven't gone away. We continue to print them in our investor presentation for a reason. And we know that we're going to have some liquidity this year, and we know that there's going to be some volatility in the market.

但我只想繼續指出我們一直在說的話，那就是併購很難——而且很難讓買家和賣家就我們認為會滿足我們不可談判的價值達成一致。我們的不可談判的東西並沒有消失。出於某種原因，我們繼續在我們的投資者介紹中印刷它們。我們知道今年我們將有一些流動性，我們知道市場會出現一些波動。

We also expect that volatility to result in some attractive opportunities to buy our own stock. And so we will weigh our nonnegotiables, we'll weigh the attractiveness of our own stock, we'll weigh all of those factors around if anybody wants to engage in an M&A discussion, is it something that is truly a good answer for our shareholders.

我們還預計這種波動會帶來一些有吸引力的機會來購買我們自己的股票。因此，我們將權衡我們不可談判的因素，我們將權衡我們自己股票的吸引力，我們將權衡所有這些因素，如果有人想參與併購討論，這對我們的股東來說真的是一個好的答案.

And if it's not, we won't engage. If it is, we'll find out if there's a viable path forward. But M&A is hard. And it's not something that just because you have some cash around, you'll go pursue in a different way than you otherwise would because if you're doing the right M&A, it's financeable. I've always believed that. And so having cash can be a cost of capital advantage at times, but that's it because otherwise, your capital is the -- your cost of capital is reflected in your stock price, it's reflected in the way that you trade, and it all has to work which is, again, very much in line with our nonnegotiables and just having cash doesn't make it necessarily more attractive to do M&A. Deals have to make sense. They have to be accretive. You have to buy assets that you can make better by consolidating them into your existing portfolio, thereby creating value for both sets of shareholders that wasn't able to be created on its own.

如果不是，我們就不會參與。如果是，我們將找出是否有可行的前進道路。但併購很難。這並不是僅僅因為你有一些現金，你就會以不同於其他方式的方式去追求，因為如果你進行正確的併購，它是可以融資的。我一直相信這一點。因此，擁有現金有時可能成為資本優勢的成本，但僅此而已，因為否則，你的資本就是——你的資本成本反映在你的股票價格中，反映在你的交易方式中，這一切都有再次，這非常符合我們不可談判的條件，僅僅擁有現金並不一定會使併購更具吸引力。交易必須有意義。他們必須是增值的。您必須購買可以通過將它們整合到現有投資組合中而變得更好的資產，從而為兩組股東創造無法自行創造的價值。

Got it. I appreciate that. One thing -- another item on modeling. The guidance for 1Q for NGL is a pretty big uptick. Is that just related to the NGL price strength relative to gas and an expectation about the injection. Is there a fair amount of flexibility down there in South Texas or why that -- we're seeing the jump in the guidance on the NGL.

知道了。我很感激。一件事——關於建模的另一項。 NGL 第一季度的指導是一個相當大的增長。這是否僅與天然氣相對於天然氣的 NGL 價格強勢以及對注入的預期有關。德克薩斯州南部是否有相當大的靈活性，或者為什麼——我們看到了 NGL 指南的跳躍。

It's probably just a mix. We may have to follow up with you on that. But obviously, we have our volumes in the rich gas area, which has a fair amount of NGLs that are going up based on the investments we had in the Upper Austin Chalk last year, and so then just the mix of assets and pricing is probably affecting that a little bit as we look at 2023 relative to 2022.

這可能只是一個混合。我們可能需要就此跟進您。但很明顯，我們在富氣區有我們的產量，根據我們去年在 Upper Austin Chalk 的投資，那裡有相當數量的 NGL，因此資產和定價的組合可能是當我們相對於 2022 年看待 2023 年時，會對此產生一點影響。

Okay. Thank you all for joining the call this morning. I think that was our last question. I appreciate everybody's time. We think it's a really interesting time in the market. We really like how we're positioned. We think that there's an opportunity to create a lot of value for shareholders in a down market. When you have the cash flow, the liquidity and the overall strength that we have, we think this is the time the companies differentiate themselves, and we look forward to doing that for our shareholders.

好的。感謝大家今天早上加入電話會議。我認為這是我們的最後一個問題。我感謝大家的時間。我們認為這是市場上一個非常有趣的時期。我們真的很喜歡我們的定位。我們認為有機會在低迷的市場中為股東創造大量價值。當您擁有我們擁有的現金流、流動性和整體實力時，我們認為這是公司脫穎而出的時候，我們期待為我們的股東做到這一點。

So we look forward to this being a really important and value-creating year for Chesapeake. We look forward to talking to all of you as we see you out at conferences or over the phone. Thanks a lot.

因此，我們期待今年對切薩皮克來說是非常重要和創造價值的一年。當我們在會議上或通過電話見到你們時，我們期待著與你們所有人交談。多謝。

The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.

會議現已結束。感謝您參加今天的演講。您現在可以斷開連接。