CF工業控股 (CF) 2026 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to CF Industries first-quarter of 2026. (Operator Instructions)

各位女士、先生，大家好，歡迎參加 CF Industries 2026 年第一季電話會議。(接線員指示)

I would now like to turn the presentation over to the host for today, Mr. Martin Jarosick, with CF Investor Relations. Sir, please proceed.

現在我想把簡報交給今天的主持人、CF 投資人關係部的 Martin Jarosick 先生。先生，請開始。

Good morning, and thanks for joining the CF Industries earnings conference call. With me today are Chris Bohn, President and CEO; Bert Frost, Executive Vice President and Chief Commercial Officer; and Rich Hoker, Vice President, Interim CFO, and Chief Accounting Officer.

各位早安，感謝各位參加 CF Industries 的財報電話會議。今天與我一同出席的有：總裁暨執行長 Chris Bohn；執行副總裁暨首席商務長 Bert Frost；以及副總裁、代理財務長暨首席會計長 Rich Hoker。

CF Industries recorded its results for the first quarter of 2026 yesterday afternoon. On this call, we'll review the results, discuss our outlook, and then host a question-and-answer session.

CF Industries 昨天下午公布了 2026 年第一季的業績。在本次電話會議中，我們將回顧業績、討論展望，接著進行問答環節。

Statements made on this call and in the presentation on our website that are not historical facts are forward-looking statements. These statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve risks, uncertainties, and assumptions that are difficult to predict. Therefore, actual outcomes and results may differ materially from what is expressed or implied.

本次電話會議以及我們網站簡報中所提及、非歷史事實的陳述均屬前瞻性陳述。這些陳述不保證未來表現，且涉及難以預測的風險、不確定性與假設。因此，實際結果與表現可能與所明示或暗示者有重大差異。

More detailed information about factors that may affect your performance may be found in our filings with the SEC, which are available on our website. Also, you will find reconciliations between GAAP and non-GAAP measures in the press release and presentation posted.

有關可能影響貴公司表現之因素的更詳細資訊，請參閱我們向美國證券交易委員會（SEC）提交的文件，並可於我們網站取得。此外，新聞稿與已發布的簡報中亦提供 GAAP 與非 GAAP 指標之間的調節表。

Now, let me introduce Chris Bohn.

現在，讓我介紹 Chris Bohn。

Thanks, Martin, and good morning, everyone. Yesterday afternoon, we posted results for the first quarter of 2026 in which we generated adjusted EBITDA of $983 million. These results reflect a continued focus on safety, operational excellence, and discipline execution by our team.

謝謝你，Martin，各位早安。昨天下午，我們公布了 2026 年第一季業績，調整後 EBITDA 為 9.83 億美元。這些成果反映我們團隊持續聚焦於安全、營運卓越，以及紀律性的執行。

Starting with safety, our trailing 12-month recordable incident rate at the end of the quarter was .16 incidents for 200,000 hours worked. This is a direct result of how our team lives our do-it-right culture every day.

先從安全談起，本季末我們過去 12 個月的可記錄事故率為每 20 萬工時 0.16 起。這是我們團隊每天落實「把事情做對」文化的直接成果。

Operationally, we had another strong quarter running available ammonia capacity at nearly 100%. And our commercial, logistics, and distribution teams ensured we met customers' requirements leading into the North American spring application season. Our performance in the quarter also reflected the tight global nitrogen supply-demand balance that carried into 2026.

在營運方面，我們又度過了一個強勁的季度，可用氨產能的運轉率接近 100%。同時，我們的商務、物流與配送團隊確保在北美春季施肥季到來前滿足客戶需求。本季表現也反映出延續至 2026 年的全球氮肥供需緊平衡。

Late in the quarter, the conflict with Iran severely tightened the global nitrogen market, a dynamic we expect to continue for some time. Lost production cannot be recovered. Damaged nitrogen and upstream feedstock capacity must be restored, and global trade flows will require time to recalibrate.

在本季後段，與伊朗的衝突使全球氮肥市場大幅收緊，我們預期這種態勢仍將持續一段時間。損失的產量無法彌補。受損的氮肥及上游原料產能必須修復，而全球貿易流向也需要時間重新校準。

In addition, the Russia-Ukraine war continues to disrupt nitrogen production at Russian facilities. From a macro perspective, we believe recent geopolitical disruptions are driving a fundamental shift in our global industry's risk-return framework.

此外，俄烏戰爭仍持續干擾俄羅斯設施的氮肥生產。從總體角度來看，我們認為近期的地緣政治擾動正推動全球產業風險—報酬框架出現根本性轉變。

First quarter tile producers have historically been defined by low natural gas costs alone. Recent supply disruptions from the Middle East and Russia show that low-cost feedstock is no longer enough. As a result, we see a clear divide within the first quartile.

過去，第一四分位（成本最低 25%）的生產商通常僅以低天然氣成本作為界定標準。近期來自中東與俄羅斯的供應中斷顯示，低成本原料已不再足夠。因此，我們看到第一四分位內部出現明顯分化。

North America, where we have intentionally invested billions of dollars over decades to build the leading nitrogen manufacturing and distribution network, is low cost and low risk, representing premium-grade assets. This is in stark contrast to the approximately 50%.

北美地區，我們數十年來有意投入數十億美元打造領先的氮肥製造與配送網路，具備低成本與低風險，代表高品質資產。這與約 50% 的情況形成鮮明對比。

First quartile capacity that is fragile and exposed with low natural gas costs that are offset by extreme geopolitical exposure. We believe the geopolitical risk premium that fragile and exposed producers face will be an enduring structural headwind, increasing the cost of capital and adding costs and uncertainty for moving product to customers.

第一四分位產能中，有一部分脆弱且暴露於風險之下：雖然天然氣成本低，但被極端的地緣政治曝險所抵消。我們認為，脆弱且暴露的生產商所面臨的地緣政治風險溢價將成為長期的結構性逆風，推升資本成本，並在將產品運送至客戶時增加成本與不確定性。

In our view, this has strengthened mid-cycle economics across the nitrogen industry, with a higher urea price now required to incentivize investment in new capacity in the Middle East to offset geopolitical risk or to build in higher capital cost low-risk regions.

我們認為，這已強化整個氮肥產業的中周期經濟性：為了在中東投資新產能以補償地緣政治風險，或是在資本成本較高但風險較低的地區建置產能，現在需要更高的尿素價格才能提供投資誘因。

With that, I'll turn it over to Bert to discuss the global nitrogen market environment. Bert.

接下來我把時間交給 Bert，請他談談全球氮肥市場環境。Bert。

Thanks, Chris. As we have discussed in our last several earnings calls. The global nitrogen supply-demand balance has been structurally tight for more than a year.

謝謝你，Chris。正如我們在最近幾次財報電話會議中所討論的，全球氮肥供需平衡在結構上已緊俏超過一年。

Global nitrogen demand has been robust. At the same time, supply has been constrained by geopolitical conflicts, elevated natural gas prices in Europe, export restrictions, and declining natural gas availability in several key producing regions.

全球氮肥需求一直相當強勁。同時，供給受到地緣政治衝突、歐洲天然氣價格高企、出口限制，以及數個關鍵生產地區天然氣供應量下降所制約。

The conflict with Iran and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz introduced a significant supply shock into this already tight market. Exports of urea and ammonia from the region have been severely limited, removing a meaningful portion of low-cost supply during peak nitrogen season.

與伊朗的衝突以及荷姆茲海峽的關閉，為這個本已緊俏的市場帶來重大供給衝擊。該地區的尿素與氨出口受到嚴重限制，在氮肥旺季移除了相當可觀的一部分低成本供給。

Additionally, producers that use imported LNG for nitrogen production have curtailed or shut down facilities due to fuel availability issues. These dynamics have substantially raised the global clearing price to meet nitrogen demand.

此外，使用進口 LNG 進行氮肥生產的業者，因燃料可得性問題而減產或停工。這些動態已大幅推升滿足氮肥需求所需的全球出清價格。

During this period, our focus has been on our long-standing North American customer base, which includes retailers, wholesalers, and cooperatives. We've been moving product to our customers for the spring 2026 planting season since July of 2025. Based on what we see today, inventory for both pre-plant and post-plant applications appears well covered.

在此期間，我們的重點一直放在長期耕耘的北美客戶基礎，包括零售商、批發商與合作社。自 2025 年 7 月起，我們就已開始為 2026 年春季播種季將產品運送給客戶。依我們目前所見，無論是播種前或播種後施用的庫存，看起來都相當充足。

We continue to work with our customers to meet the last layers of demand for this season. This includes leveraging our manufacturing, logistics, and distribution capabilities to increase nitrogen availability this spring. For example, we temporarily delayed a turnaround at Donaldsonville, allowing us to produce about 100,000 additional tons of urea for the season.

我們持續與客戶合作，以滿足本季最後一波需求。這包括運用我們的製造、物流與配送能力，在今年春季提高氮肥供應量。例如，我們暫時延後 Donaldsonville 的歲修，使我們在本季額外生產約 10 萬噸尿素。

We also repurposed Yazoo City rail assets to move urea from Donaldsonville into the Corn Belt. And to ship ammonia from Medicine Hat Canada into our US distribution network. We continue to evaluate all our operations and distribution channels to ensure product availability through the end of the season.

我們也重新調度 Yazoo City 的鐵路資產，將尿素自 Donaldsonville 運往玉米帶。並將氨從加拿大 Medicine Hat 運入我們在美國的配送網路。我們持續評估所有營運與配送通路，以確保在季末前產品供應無虞。

While CF Industries has flexibility to support our customers globally, there are not many options to overcome a supply disruption of this magnitude. Indeed, we are seeing several nations restrict exports, further removing supply from global trade flows.

雖然 CF Industries 具備彈性，可在全球範圍支援客戶，但要克服如此規模的供給中斷，選項並不多。事實上，我們看到多個國家限制出口，進一步使全球貿易流中的供給減少。

China remains focused on ensuring their domestic agricultural industry is well supplied, with exports of nitrogen largely restricted. While we expect controlled and limited urea exports to begin later in the second quarter, volumes are unlikely to fully offset lost Middle Eastern supply.

中國仍以確保其國內農業供應充足為重點，氮肥出口大多受到限制。雖然我們預期在第二季後段將開始受控且有限的尿素出口，但出口量不太可能完全彌補中東供給的流失。

Russia had also implemented export restrictions to prioritize their domestic agriculture. And this week, Egypt moved to apply a $90 per metric ton duty on nitrogen fertilizer exports. With global nitrogen supply constraints, there will be intense competition for available supply.

俄羅斯也已實施出口限制，以優先供應其國內農業。而本週，埃及也開始對氮肥出口課徵每公噸 90 美元的關稅。在全球氮肥供應受限的情況下，對可得供應的競爭將會非常激烈。

We expect India, which entered 2026 with low inventories, to lead the way. Given urea volumes not delivered under a previous tender and lower-than-expected domestic urea production, we believe India's urea imports requirements will be substantial in 2026. Potentially rising to 10 to 12 million metric tons. This would be approximately 10 to 30% higher than 2025 and nearly double their 2024 imports.

我們預期在2026年以低庫存進入市場的印度將領先帶動需求。鑑於先前一項招標中未交付的尿素數量，以及國內尿素產量低於預期，我們認為印度在2026年的尿素進口需求將相當可觀。可能上升至1,000萬至1,200萬公噸。這將約較2025年高出10%至30%，並幾乎是其2024年進口量的兩倍。

With this environment, we expect to see unmet demand in certain parts of the world. We believe Latin America, Africa and Southeast Asia are areas where we will see lower fertilizer consumption. As application volume per acre decreases globally, yields will decline, which we expect to result in higher prices for corn, wheat, rice, cotton and sugar.

在此環境下，我們預期全球某些地區將出現未被滿足的需求。我們認為拉丁美洲、非洲與東南亞將是肥料消耗量下降的地區。隨著全球每英畝施用量下降，作物單產將下滑，我們預期這將導致玉米、小麥、稻米、棉花與糖的價格上漲。

Looking ahead, even with some incremental supply later in the year, we expect global nitrogen markets to remain tight through 2026 and into 2027. We also expect further structural tightening through the end of the decade as new nitrogen capacity under construction today falls short of the traditional nitrogen demand growth rate.

展望未來，即使今年稍晚會有一些增量供給，我們仍預期全球氮肥市場將在2026年並延續至2027年維持緊俏。我們也預期在本十年末之前結構性緊縮將進一步加劇，因為目前在建的新氮肥產能不足以滿足傳統的氮肥需求成長率。

With that, let me turn it over to Rich.

接下來我把時間交給Rich。

Thanks, Bert, and good morning, everyone. For the first quarter of 2026, the company reported net earnings attributable to common stockholders of approximately $615 million or $3.98 per diluted share.

謝謝你，Bert，各位早安。2026年第一季，公司歸屬於普通股股東的淨利約為6.15億美元，或稀釋後每股盈餘3.98美元。

EBITDA was approximately $1 billion and adjusted EBITDA was $983 million. These results reflect a gain of approximately $170 million from a previously disclosed litigation settlement with Orica and Nelson Brothers.

EBITDA約為10億美元，調整後EBITDA為9.83億美元。這些結果反映了先前已揭露、與Orica及Nelson Brothers之訴訟和解所帶來約1.70億美元的收益。

We recorded the gain in the first quarter and received the proceeds in April. As a result, it will be reflected in our cash flow statement next quarter. On a trailing 12-month net cash from operations was approximately $2.7 billion and free cash flow was approximately $1.65 billion.

我們在第一季認列該項收益，並於4月收到款項。因此，它將在下季的現金流量表中反映。以過去12個月計，營運活動淨現金約為27億美元，自由現金流約為16.5億美元。

We continue to efficiently convert EBITDA to free cash flow at industry-leading margins, positioning the company well to continue to invest in accretive growth and return capital to shareholders. Our capital expenditure projection for 2026 remains approximately $1.3 billion on a consolidated basis.

我們持續以業界領先的利潤率，將EBITDA有效轉換為自由現金流，使公司具備良好條件，得以持續投資於具增值性的成長並回饋資本予股東。我們對2026年的資本支出預估在合併基礎上仍約為13億美元。

CF Industries portion of this is approximately $950 million, which includes $550 million for sustaining CapEx for our existing network, plus approximately $400 million relating to both the Blue Point joint venture and the Blue Point common infrastructure we're building at the site.

其中CF Industries的部分約為9.5億美元，包括用於既有網路維持性資本支出（sustaining CapEx）的5.5億美元，另約4億美元與Blue Point合資案以及我們在該基地建置的Blue Point共用基礎設施相關。

Construction on the Blue Point ammonia plant is expected to commence this year once applicable permits have been received. We continue to be pleased by the progress that has been made on this high-return project that will add over 1.5 million tons of gross ammonia capacity in the United States when it begins operation late in 2029.

Blue Point氨廠的建設預期將在今年、於取得相關許可後開始動工。我們對這個高報酬專案的進展仍感到滿意；該專案在2029年末開始營運時，將在美國新增超過150萬噸的總氨產能。

Finally, we repurchased approximately 150,000 shares of our common stock for $15 million in the first quarter. We expect to continue to be opportunistic and disciplined as we execute the remainder of our current share repurchase program.

最後，我們在第一季以1,500萬美元回購約15萬股普通股。在執行目前剩餘的庫藏股回購計畫時，我們預期將持續把握機會並保持紀律。

With that, Chris will provide some closing remarks before we open the call to Q&A.

接下來，Chris將在我們開放問答前做一些結語。

Thanks, Rich. I want to thank CF Industries employees for their commitment and dedication during the first quarter of 2026. They worked safely, delivered outstanding operational performance, and stayed closely engaged with our customers as industry dynamics evolved rapidly.

謝謝你，Rich。我要感謝CF Industries員工在2026年第一季的承諾與投入。他們在安全作業下，交出卓越的營運表現，並在產業動態快速變化之際，持續與客戶保持緊密互動。

CF Industries is well-positioned for the near, medium, and long-term. Our North American footprint, operational excellence, and consistent industry-leading free cash flow conversion set us apart.

CF Industries在短期、中期與長期都具備良好定位。我們在北美的布局、營運卓越，以及一貫的業界領先自由現金流轉換能力，使我們脫穎而出。

Alongside our structural and operational advantages, we are realizing decarbonization opportunities today that provide incremental free cash flow, and our Blue Point Complex and additional opportunities within our existing network provide a robust growth platform for the future.

除了結構性與營運面的優勢外，我們目前也正在實現去碳化機會，帶來額外的自由現金流；而我們的Blue Point園區以及既有網路中的其他機會，為未來提供了強健的成長平台。

With our capital allocation strategy to grow our production base, enhance network margins, and return capital to shareholders, we expect to continue to create substantial value for long-term shareholders. As a result, the intrinsic value of CF's assets, durable advantages, and growth initiatives has increased. That value proposition is becoming even more relevant against the current global backdrop.

透過我們的資本配置策略——擴大生產基礎、提升網路利潤率並回饋資本予股東——我們預期將持續為長期股東創造可觀價值。因此，CF資產的內在價值、持久優勢與成長計畫已提升。在當前全球背景下，這項價值主張變得更加重要。

The conflict with Iran represents the third major supply and demand shock to the global nitrogen market in the last six years and is exposed to the fragile nature of the global nitrogen supply chain. This fragility is not limited to production assets. It includes feedstock assets such as LNG and logistical assets such as shipping that are essential to the way our global industry operates.

與伊朗的衝突是過去六年全球氮肥市場第三次重大供需衝擊，也凸顯了全球氮肥供應鏈的脆弱性。這種脆弱性不僅限於生產資產。它也包括如LNG等原料資產，以及如航運等物流資產——這些都是我們全球產業運作方式所不可或缺的。

In an environment of frequent geopolitical disruptions, we see distinct value in the true stability of our hard-to-replicate network and superior assets, strengthening mid-cycle expectations and the predictability of the substantial free cash flow we generate. As we continue to execute our strategy, we believe this CF premium will become increasingly evident.

在地緣政治干擾頻繁的環境下，我們看見我們難以複製的網路與優質資產所具備的真正穩定性具有明確價值，這強化了我們對景氣中期的預期，以及我們所產生之可觀自由現金流的可預測性。隨著我們持續執行策略，我們相信這項CF溢價將愈發明顯。

With that, operator, we'll open the call to questions.

那麼，接線員，我們開放提問。

(Operator Instructions) Kristen Owen, Oppenheimer.

(接線員指示) Oppenheimer的Kristen Owen。

Good morning. Thank you for taking the question. I actually wanted to start out with this CF premium idea and phrase a longer-term position here where, if we're in the scenario of higher for longer sustained energy arbitrage advantage in the US, like, how are you thinking about the calculus now on your Blue Point economics, as you think about the export opportunity and just given the excess cash generation, how that all factors together into those unit economics for that new capacity. Thank you.

早安。謝謝讓我提問。我其實想先從這個「CF溢價」的概念談起，並以較長期的角度來提問：如果我們處於美國能源套利優勢「更高且維持更久」的情境下，你們現在如何思考Blue Point的經濟性計算？尤其在考量出口機會，以及在現金超額創造的情況下，這些因素如何共同影響該新增產能的單位經濟性。謝謝。

Yeah. Thanks, Kristen, and good morning. Related to really the structural changes that are happening with the longer, I would say, natural gas differential that you're talking about, I think all it does for our Blue Point project is really increase the return profile that we have put in place.

是的。謝謝你，Kristen，早安。就你提到的、我會說是更長期的天然氣價差所帶來的結構性變化而言，我認為這對我們的Blue Point專案所做的，就是進一步提高我們原先設定的報酬輪廓。

We're always very disciplined in our investment decisions and almost to the point of being conservative. But I think what we're seeing here, as we talked about, is a structural shift in how the world views low cost. And low cost isn't just low-cost feedstock like what we have, but it's also breaking out what other costs are involved in that, from transport costs to even operational efficiency.

我們在投資決策上一向非常有紀律，甚至可說偏保守。但我認為我們現在看到的是，如同我們所談到的，全球對「低成本」的看法正在出現結構性轉變。而低成本不僅是像我們這樣的低成本原料，還包括把其中涉及的其他成本拆解出來，從運輸成本到營運效率皆然。

So what we see in place there is just an increased return profile. And really, I think, if anything, the conflict is shedding a light on the strength of our strategy, being very intentional where we build and expand our assets here in North America that allow us not only low-cost inputs, but allow us to be able to move products throughout the world, whether it be export or up into the Midwest where it's required.

因此我們看到的是報酬輪廓的提升。而且我認為，若說有什麼影響的話，這場衝突正凸顯我們策略的強度：我們非常有意識地選擇在北美建置並擴張資產，這不僅讓我們擁有低成本投入，也讓我們能將產品運往全球各地——不論是出口，或是運往有需求的中西部地區。

And I think regarding the premium, we're seeing that today in the market as we have brought on our low-carbon product, ammonia and upgraded products in Donaldsonville, and then the future of Blue Point, which will be 95% or more decarbonized.

我認為就溢價而言，隨著我們在Donaldsonville推出低碳產品（氨）以及升級產品，並展望未來的Blue Point（將達到95%或以上的去碳化），我們今天已在市場上看到這種溢價。

We're seeding the market today, building those relationships, putting in place those contracts, all with the premium on the current market. And so we're seeing a very significant uptake and positive receptivity to our program.

我們目前正在市場上播種，建立這些關係、落實這些合約，全部都以當前市場的溢價來進行。因此，我們看到非常顯著的採用增長，以及市場對我們計畫的正面回應。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Mike Sison, Wells Fargo.

Wells Fargo 的 Mike Sison。

Hey. Good morning. Thank you. In terms of your -- in terms of the -- you mentioned that in 2017 you felt supply demand would remain pretty tight for nitrogen and, given when you think about the conflict here and the damage that is occurring in the Middle East, I mean, how tight do you think it'll be? Do you think nitrogen and the prevailing products will stay above the average and just a feel for the longevity of this elevated pricing. Thank you.

嗨。早安。謝謝。就你們的——就——你提到在2017年你們認為氮肥的供需會維持相當吃緊；考量到這裡的衝突以及中東正在發生的破壞，我的意思是，你認為會有多緊？你認為氮肥及主流產品會維持在平均水準之上嗎？也想請你談談這種高價位能維持多久。謝謝。

Yeah. Thanks, Mike. I'll start and then Bert will probably add some additional color related to it, but I think what we will see here is a longer tail, even if we are able to see the straight open up and begin to see product flow move through there, as you mentioned, there's a lot of damaged assets that will have to be assessed, the vessel movement itself is going to take a significant amount of time, normal transport would be 30 to 40 days.

是的。謝謝你，Mike。我先說，然後Bert可能會補充一些相關細節。我認為我們將看到較長的尾端效應；即使我們能看到海峽重新開放、產品開始通行，如你所提到的，仍有許多受損資產需要評估，船舶移動本身也會花相當長的時間；正常運輸大約需要30到40天。

But then you can add something to that and to get those assets back. And even the quality of the product in those particular vessels, I think, is going to be questioned. And then these assets that have been shut down during this part that haven't been damaged, to bring those back up is going to take some time as well.

但你還得在此基礎上再加上一些時間，才能讓那些資產恢復。甚至我認為，那些特定船舶上的產品品質也會受到質疑。此外，這段期間停工但未受損的資產，要重新啟動也同樣需要時間。

The thing we're seeing is probably some longer-lasting where there will be some increased costs related to inflation, risk premiums, even vessel insurance as we go forward, and that's really the underlying thesis where what we've been saying over the years has only been strengthened more, where we're seeing the mid-cycle of urea costs increased during that time frame.

我們看到的情況可能會更持久，未來會出現一些與通膨、風險溢價，甚至船舶保險相關的成本上升；這正是我們的核心論點——我們多年來所說的只會被進一步強化，也就是我們看到尿素的中周期成本在那段期間上升。

I'll let Bert talk about maybe the 2027 S&D balance side of it.

我讓Bert來談談可能關於2027年供需平衡面的部分。

I think probably an informal comparison is the world has been operating like a Ferrari, where it's been operating on all cylinders, just-in-time inventory, delivered, it's worked. Supply has moved efficiently and effectively to all parts of the world and bid at a common number for a global market.

我想一個比較不正式的比喻是：全球一直像法拉利一樣運作——全缸運轉、即時庫存、按時交付，一直都行得通。供應一直高效且有效地流向全球各地，並在全球市場以同一個共同價格競價。

All that is disrupted. You've got 1,000 to 1,500 vessels stuck behind the strait. You've got to untangle all of that. You've got the repairs that Chris talked about. But when you look to the production or the products that our products produce.

這一切都被打亂了。有1,000到1,500艘船卡在海峽後方。你必須把這些全部理順。還有Chris提到的修復工作。但當你看向生產端或我們產品所產出的產品時。

You've got a pretty tight supply and demand stock-to-use ratio for corn and other nitrogen-related products. So I see that demand is elevated, one, due to lack of LNG. And so you're going to see Bangladesh, India, Pakistan that rely on LNG that have had sub-operating levels for their nitrogen are going to have to import more. There's going to be a tightness on that import that's going to be bid in for a price. And so I see this 2027 number ahead of probably the average pricing that we've been expecting over the last several years.

玉米以及其他與氮肥相關產品的供需與庫存使用比相當吃緊。因此我認為需求走高，第一個原因是LNG不足。所以你會看到依賴LNG、且氮肥產能一直低於正常運轉水準的孟加拉、印度、巴基斯坦，將不得不增加進口。進口端會出現緊俏，並會以價格競標反映出來。因此我認為，2027年的價格水準可能會高於我們過去幾年所預期的平均價格。

And then it's -- what does it do for food --

然後它——對食品會造成什麼影響——

Mike, does that answer your question?

Mike，這有回答到你的問題嗎？

Let's move on, operator.

我們繼續，接線員。

Joel Jackson, BMO Capital Markets.

BMO Capital Markets 的 Joel Jackson。

Good morning. Maybe, Bert, you could opine. We're seeing, as we get into the end of the spring season here, some interesting behavior in domestic nitrogen markets, Urea markets to be specific. I mean, we've seen NOLA come down a fair bit seasonality, there's also what's going on in the Middle East.

早安。也許Bert你可以談談看法。隨著春季季節接近尾聲，我們在美國國內氮肥市場、特別是尿素市場，看到一些有趣的行為。我的意思是，我們看到NOLA因季節性因素下滑了不少，另外還有中東正在發生的事情。

Also some commentary that the imports into the US in Q1 were stronger than many people thought. Maybe you can give your opinions on the bifurcation we're seeing in US, nitrogen prices versus offshore pricing, seasonality and the strength of imports into the US?

也有一些評論指出，美國第一季的進口量比很多人預期的更強。你能否就我們看到的美國氮肥價格相對於海外價格的分化、季節性，以及美國進口強勁的情況，分享你的看法？

Good morning, Joel. And it is an interesting dynamic in that the US is the lowest-priced market in the world today. And if you look at pricing that has been offered this week of plus or minus $600 per short ton or.

早安，Joel。這確實是一個有趣的動態，因為美國目前是全球價格最低的市場。如果你看本週報出的價格，大約在每短噸正負600美元左右，或。

$650 million to $660 million a metric ton, compare that with North Africa, which is producing and shipping and over $800 per metric ton, so a gigantic differential. And I think North America is well supplied for spring with July or Q3 of 2025 through Q1 of 2026.

每公噸650到660美元，相較之下，北非在生產與出貨，價格超過每公噸800美元，因此價差非常巨大。我認為北美在春季的供應相當充足，涵蓋2025年7月或2025年第三季到2026年第一季。

All that product has been produced and shipped and is in place for the retail sector to supply the farmer. And so I think what's happening on that retail and co-op side of the equation is at the inventory liquidation, prices are high based on a historic level.

所有這些產品都已生產、出貨並到位，讓零售端能供應農民。因此我認為在零售與合作社端正在發生的，是庫存去化；在歷史水準來看，價格偏高。

A lot of those customers don't want to take additional open risk without having a buyer on the backside, that being a farmer. And so there you have an inventory liquidation that's going to take place. And then for second and third applications, you're going to see those retailers coming back to us to buy at whatever the market price is.

許多客戶不想在沒有下游買方（也就是農民）的情況下，承擔額外的敞口風險。因此就會出現庫存去化的情況。接著在第二次與第三次施用時，你會看到那些零售商回來向我們採購，價格則取決於當時的市場價格。

This spring has been, I think, well supplied. I think there's been a little bit of anxiety, probably overexpressed, in terms of supply availability and the price, the average price that has been to the retail sector and to the farmer this year has been, on a historic level, pretty good.

我認為今年春季供應充足。我認為市場對供應可得性與價格有一些焦慮，可能被過度放大；而今年零售端與農民所面對的平均價格，就歷史水準而言，其實相當不錯。

And so then it's as we come out of this into Q3, and what does the rest of the year look like? We've talked about still a very tight market and probably a higher-priced market. And I think you'll see the United States or let's say the NOLA market probably come into more equalization with the world price.

接著就是當我們走出這段期間進入第三季，接下來一年其餘時間會是什麼樣子？我們談過市場仍然非常吃緊，而且可能是更高價的市場。我認為你會看到美國——或者說NOLA市場——可能會更趨向與全球價格拉齊。

Vincent Andrews, Morgan Stanley.

Morgan Stanley 的 Vincent Andrews。

Thank you, and good morning. I wanted to ask on the buyback in the quarter, it was $15 million. Were you buying throughout the quarter? Were you locked up in some way? And if you weren't, how should we think about buybacks for the rest of the year? Is there a share price level now that you're more comfortable in versus others, or just any update would be great?

謝謝，早安。我想問一下本季的庫藏股回購，金額是1,500萬美元。你們是整個季度都有在買嗎？你們是否因某些原因而受到限制（locked up）？如果沒有，那我們應該如何看待今年剩餘時間的回購？目前是否有一個你們更能接受的股價水準（相較於其他水準），或任何更新都很有幫助？

Yeah, so maybe I'll start with the back end of that question that we continue to be a buyer of our shares. As I mentioned in the prepared remarks, we think they're trading below the intrinsic value for not only what's happened just recently, but what has been occurring over the last couple of years where we've talked about our assets and accruing more value related to the consistent free cash flow.

是的，所以也許我先從那個問題的後半段開始：我們仍會持續回購自家股票。如同我在事先準備的發言中提到的，我們認為股價目前的交易水準低於其內在價值，原因不僅在於近期發生的事情，也包括過去幾年我們一直在談到的資產狀況，以及與穩定自由現金流相關、持續累積的價值。

So we have $1.7 billion remaining on our open authorization for the share repurchase, and our intention is to execute that, just as we've done historically. In Q1 here, we generally go about and we set a grid in place. So we had a grid in place that we ended up keeping in place.

我們目前在既有的股票回購授權下，仍有17億美元的剩餘額度，而我們的意圖是執行該授權，就像我們過去一貫的做法一樣。在這裡的第一季，我們通常會建立一個回購的價格/數量網格（grid）。因此我們當時已經設好一個網格，最後也維持不變。

And then the conflict broke out, and we weren't certain the duration of the conflict at that particular time. So as a result of that, we were probably a little lighter during that timeframe, but it has no indication on what we see as the value of our shares. As I said, we still have $1.7 billion open. Our intention is that we're going to execute that before the expiration time of it.

接著衝突爆發，而在那個時間點我們不確定衝突會持續多久。因此在那段期間我們的回購力道可能稍微保守一些，但這並不代表我們對自家股票價值的看法有任何改變。如我所說，我們仍有17億美元的額度尚未使用。我們的意圖是在授權到期之前把它執行完畢。

Ben Theurer, Barclays.

Ben Theurer，巴克萊。

Good morning and thanks for taking my question. Just two quick ones like related here. So one thing you've talked about, the China restrictions on the export side, Egypt, et cetera. So just want to understand with those markets. Putting in more of the export restrictions here or incremental duties, what does that do in terms of like just the pricing globally in your view and the benefits that you might have, particularly in the North American market?

早安，謝謝讓我提問。我有兩個很快的相關問題。你們提到中國在出口端的限制、埃及等等。我想了解在那些市場中，若進一步加強出口限制或新增關稅，從你們的角度看，這對全球定價會造成什麼影響？以及你們可能獲得的好處，特別是在北美市場方面？

And then just as a follow-up, you mentioned on the shutdown of some of the facilities that might not be damaged. How long, remind us, how long does it take to run something up again, assuming conflict against tomorrow and we can. Basically be back online, and how long would it take for some of those nitrogen facilities to be properly operational back online? Thank you.

接著追問一下，你提到部分可能未受損的設施也被關停。請提醒我們，如果假設衝突明天就結束、我們可以（恢復），要把裝置重新拉升運轉需要多久？基本上要讓其中一些氮肥設施重新上線並達到正常運轉，大概需要多長時間？謝謝。

Okay, Ben, this is Bert, and I'll take the China restrictions and just the market and what's going on. It is an interesting nationalistic move a lot of these supply countries are making to restrict supply for their citizens. And that's one of the things that China has done with exports still restricted in 2026 and expected to come out sometime in Q2.

好的，Ben，我是Bert，我來回答中國限制以及市場現況。很多供應國採取限制供應給本國民眾的做法，這是一種有趣的民族主義動作。而中國就是其中之一：出口仍在限制中，延續到2026年，預計會在第二季某個時間點放行。

And so last year in 2025, about 5 million tons came out of China. We need all of that and more to balance the world supply. And I don't think that's going to be able to happen with what's going on in the Gulf and the current capacity is offline, either damaged, destroyed, or just not operating.

因此在2025年，去年大約有500萬噸從中國出口。要平衡全球供需，我們需要那全部的量，甚至還需要更多。而以目前波灣地區的情況、以及現有產能下線（不論是受損、被摧毀，或只是未運轉），我不認為這能夠實現。

I would expect that China comes out like they did last year, maybe June through October, 1 million-plus tons a month. We mentioned earlier Egyptian restrictions or costs and Russian restrictions. And it's back to the sub-optimally operating plants specific to India that's estimated today to be operating at 70% or driving that additional import need to meet their demands.

我預期中國會像去年一樣出來供應，可能在6月到10月期間，每月超過100萬噸。我們先前提到埃及的限制或成本，以及俄羅斯的限制。此外，印度一些工廠處於非最佳運轉狀態——目前估計只在70%負載運轉——這也推升了額外的進口需求以滿足其需求。

So a tight market pricing today, as we mentioned in the North Africa that has available supplies in the $800 to $850 per metric ton. As we look to the back half of the year, I think the global market is expecting some price moderation. I just can't give you an estimate today of what that price would be.

因此目前市場定價偏緊，如我們提到的，在北非有可供應的貨源，價格約為每公噸800到850美元。展望下半年，我認為全球市場預期價格會有所緩和。但我今天無法給你對那個價格的估計。

And then related to the operational side and the shutdowns, I think there's two parts to that. The first being getting the equipment back up, and there's a lot of rotating equipment. If these were, as we understand, shutdown and put down, you're looking at one to three months depending on what type of maintenance was being performed during that particular timeframe and what type of procurement they may have to do on some of the parts. That would be required to bring those back up. So I would use conservatively like a one to three-month timeframe.

至於營運面與關停，我認為可分成兩部分。第一部分是把設備重新啟動，這裡有很多旋轉設備。如果如我們所了解的是「停機並妥善封存」，那麼視當時進行的維護類型，以及他們可能需要採購的零件而定，通常需要一到三個月。這些都是重新開車所必需的。所以我會保守地用一到三個月的時間範圍。

But in addition, a lot of these particular plants had loaded inventory. Before they shut down, they had loaded up their inventory. And when you're looking at that vessel movement that we talked about earlier, you could be months away from getting vessels back where you can start to deplete that inventory and really bring up that production as well.

但除此之外，很多這類工廠在停機前已經把庫存裝滿。在他們關停之前，已經先行累積了庫存。而就我們先前談到的船舶運輸來看，你可能還要等上好幾個月，船舶才會回到可以開始去化庫存的位置，並且真正把產量也拉升起來。

So I think there's lot of different components here, and that's why there's going to be a much longer tail and knock-on effect, secondary effects, some of which we don't even know right now in order to get the entire system operating again.

所以我認為這裡有很多不同的組成因素，這也是為什麼要讓整個系統重新運轉，會出現更長的尾端影響與連鎖效應、次級效應，其中有些我們現在甚至還不知道。

Just to put some numbers behind what's shut down, it's estimated that 31 ammonia plants in the Middle East have been directly impacted by the conflict or shut down production. 49 plants in India, Pakistan, and Bangladesh are either curtailed or shut down due to constrained feedstock. And in Russia, at least 20 to 21 plants have been associated with being droned by Ukraine. So the impact is widespread.

補充一些關停規模的數字：估計中東有31座氨廠直接受到衝突影響或已停產。印度、巴基斯坦與孟加拉有49座工廠因原料受限而減產或停產。而在俄羅斯，至少有20到21座工廠被認為與遭烏克蘭無人機攻擊有關。因此影響範圍非常廣。

Thank you very much.

非常感謝。

Chris Parkinson, Wolfe Research.

Chris Parkinson，Wolfe Research。

Got it. Thank you so much. I think we could all debate the degree of the windfall of free cash flow you're going to have presumably by year-end, and we could all debate even further into '27, '28. And then you have the Secretary of Treasury and the Secretary of Agriculture pleading for new capacity.

了解。非常感謝。我想我們都可以討論你們到年底可能會有多大幅度的自由現金流意外之財（windfall），也可以再進一步討論到2027、2028年。同時你們也看到財政部長與農業部長在呼籲新增產能。

And on top of that, you have, by my count, up to seven, probably at least six or seven other either blue or gray nitrogen facilities either canceled or suspended indefinitely.

除此之外，依我統計，最多可能有七個、至少也有六到七個其他的藍氮或灰氮設施，要嘛取消、要嘛無限期暫停。

When you think about those three factors in the intermediate to longer-term, how are you thinking about Blue Point number two? Is there anything else that you think the industry should be doing to work with in terms of the US policymakers? I'd love to hear your perspectives.

當你從中期到長期去看這三個因素時，你們如何思考Blue Point二期（number two）？另外，你認為產業還應該做些什麼，來與美國政策制定者合作？很想聽聽你們的觀點。

Yeah. So Chris, I think you characterized it well, and this goes on top of what we've been talking about really for the last couple of years that the market was already tight, as Bert said, coming into 2026 and now having some of these fundamental additional costs, how things are being reviewed.

是的。所以Chris，我認為你的描述很到位；而這又疊加在我們過去幾年一直在談的事情之上：如Bert所說，市場在進入2026年時本來就已經偏緊，而現在又出現一些基本面的新增成本，以及各方對事情的重新審視方式。

We needed new capacity before. We're probably going to need even more right now. I think there is going to be an increased cost into where that capacity goes around the world, and it makes our decision to move forward with Blue Point look even better.

我們之前就需要新增產能。而現在我們可能會需要更多。我認為全球各地新增產能的成本將會上升，這也讓我們推進Blue Point的決策看起來更具吸引力。

As I said on the first question here, we're probably going to see higher return profile than what we thought. And we continually, because this has been our view for a while, look at production expansion. I think there's still some things.

如同我在這裡第一個問題所說的，我們可能會看到比原先預期更高的報酬輪廓。而且我們一直以來——因為這一直是我們一段時間以來的看法——都在評估產能擴張。我認為仍然還有一些事情要處理。

We want to get a better understanding at Blue Point number one before we would move into Blue Point number two, but whatever the decision that's going to be made, again, I think you've worked with us long enough that it's a very disciplined investment decision.

在我們推進到 Blue Point 第二期之前，我們希望先對 Blue Point 第一期有更深入的了解；但無論最終做出什麼決定，我想你跟我們合作夠久了，應該知道這會是一個非常嚴謹、紀律分明的投資決策。

Now, that being said, the amount of cash flow, just given our efficiency in converting that cash flow, is going to be significant over the next several years. And I think we see opportunities, whether it be within our network or elsewhere, to enhance our margins or increase our production on a very value, high return profile type of return.

話雖如此，僅就現金流的規模而言，考量到我們將現金流轉化的效率，未來幾年將會相當可觀。而且我認為我們看到一些機會——不論是在我們的網路內或其他地方——以非常重視價值、且具高報酬輪廓的方式來提升毛利或增加產量。

Got it. And just a quick follow-up for either you or Bert. Obviously, there's a lot of things moving in terms of when we would generally think about summer fill prices. Do you have -- in terms of international dynamics versus domestic surety of supply, the balance between urea availability versus perhaps UAN, are you thinking about things presumably a little bit differently this year or how should we think about that?

了解。再快速追問一下，您或 Bert 都可以回答。顯然，關於我們通常會如何看待夏季補庫（summer fill）價格的時點，有很多變動因素。就國際動態相對於國內供應確定性、尿素供給相對於可能的 UAN 之間的平衡而言，今年你們是否會用一些不同的方式來思考，或我們應該如何看待？

That's the question we ask ourselves pretty much every day. And the team looked at that. And every year has been different in my 18 years at CF of how we looked at fill, when it's offered, the communication with our customers.

這幾乎是我們每天都在問自己的問題。團隊也有在研究這件事。在我於 CF 的 18 年裡，每一年我們看待補庫、何時提供、以及與客戶溝通的方式都不一樣。

And I've got to give Mike Hamm and his team a lot of credit from last year, communicating openly and ahead of time on the date we were going to launch, giving our customer friends time to prepare and put things in place on.

我必須高度肯定 Mike Hamm 和他的團隊去年所做的工作：在我們要啟動的日期上，開放且提前地溝通，讓我們的客戶朋友有時間準備並把相關安排就緒。

What their needs were in terms of volume and price expectations and a very successful campaign. And we're probably looking to replicate that in terms of thematics for this year. Now, it does get to though the price and the timing because we're in a highly volatile world and.

也就是他們在數量需求與價格預期方面的需求，並且那是一個非常成功的活動。我們今年大概也會在主題與做法上複製那樣的模式。不過，這確實會回到價格與時點的問題，因為我們身處一個高度波動的世界。

You're right. We look at the balance internally, what is the best use of the molecule. So the nitrogen molecules that work through the system from ammonia to urea to UAN to ammonium nitrate to DEF or any of the products we produce, and we look at where is the highest value, where is the need.

你說得沒錯。我們會在內部看平衡：分子（molecule）最佳用途是什麼。因此，氮分子在系統中從氨到尿素到 UAN 到硝酸銨到 DEF，或任何我們生產的產品，我們都會評估哪裡價值最高、哪裡有需求。

What is our inventory system? What does the export opportunities look like? And then we make judgments and seek a consensus with the team and leadership on moving forward. So I expect that to happen, but I would expect this to be a Q3 event.

我們的庫存系統狀況如何？出口機會看起來怎麼樣？然後我們做出判斷，並與團隊與領導層尋求共識以推進。所以我預期這會發生，但我預期這會是一個第三季的事件。

Edlain Rodriguez, Mizuho.

Edlain Rodriguez，瑞穗（Mizuho）。

Thank you. Good morning, everyone. My guess, as nitrogen prices have moved up higher, like what do you think farmers can or will do to lower the fertilizer cost basket? And related to that, in a typical year, like how much of the nitrogen needs do farmers prepay for like earlier in the year?

謝謝。各位早安。我想問，隨著氮肥價格走高，你認為農民可以或將會做些什麼來降低整體肥料成本組合（fertilizer cost basket）？另外，在一般年份，農民通常會在年初預付多少比例的氮肥需求？

Yeah, Edlain, very good question, especially in a high price, high cost. Environment, the best thing that could happen is we see a rally in corn, and that's why I mentioned in my prepared remarks the impacts to some parts of the world that I expect to take place with under applications of fertilizer leading to underperforming yields.

是的，Edlain，這是個很好的問題，尤其是在高價格、高成本的環境下。最好的情況是我們看到玉米價格上漲；這也是我在事先準備的發言中提到的：我預期世界某些地區會因肥料施用不足而導致產量不如預期。

And that could happen in Brazil or for the second crop that gets planted in January and February or if there's a weather event in El Nino in Argentina or something like that. But [UAN] prices are high. We are in a high-priced environment and a lot of times supply and demand get or more demand gets.

這可能發生在巴西——例如 1、2 月播種的第二季作物——或是如果阿根廷遇到聖嬰（El Nino）之類的天候事件。但 [UAN] 價格很高。我們處於高價環境，而很多時候供需——或更確切地說需求——會受到高價格的影響。

Impacted by high prices, but nitrogen is the one nutrient that you really can't skip on. And this is a year, I think, for North America because the majority of our tons are consumed in North America. We're talking with our retail and cooperative friends as well as our agribusiness partners like ADM and those people who are dealing with the output of the farmer.

但氮是你真的無法省略的那一種養分。而今年我認為對北美而言——因為我們大部分的噸數是在北美被消耗——我們正與零售商與合作社的朋友，以及像 ADM 等農業企業夥伴溝通，這些人都在處理農民的產出端。

And when you're looking at the opportunity of corn today in North America. There's two ways to -- you can cut costs or you can increase yield to improve your revenue per acre.

當你看今天北美玉米的機會時，有兩種方式——你可以削減成本，或你可以提高單產來改善每英畝的收入。

And in this type of environment, we don't expect a cut in nitrogen in North America with the yield opportunity that's available, whether that be dry or irrigated land. And so we're seeing that in terms of behavior and purchasing and positioning of nitrogen. And so the typical applications.

在這種環境下，考量到可取得的增產機會——不論是旱地或灌溉地——我們不預期北美會削減氮肥用量。因此我們在行為、採購以及氮肥備貨/布局上都看到了這一點。所以典型的施用方式是——

For nitrogen, you can apply ammonia in the fall, and we had an extremely good fall ammonia season in November of 2025, and we've had a very good one for spring this year for ammonia. And so that to me communicates, one, farmer planning, two, yield expectations, and three, they bought low-cost products, and all of that was priced earlier, the spring as well as the fall earlier in the year at attractive prices.

就氮肥而言，你可以在秋季施用氨；我們在 2025 年 11 月有一個非常好的秋季氨肥季，也在今年春季有一個非常好的氨肥季。對我來說，這傳達了三件事：第一，農民的規劃；第二，對單產的期待；第三，他們買到了低成本產品——而這些在春季與秋季都已在年內較早的時點、以具吸引力的價格完成定價。

And so then it gets to what secondary and third applications are added to that for yield. And we had a phenomenal yield in 2025 of I think of 187 bushels per acre. And I would expect that to fall a little bit, but we're hoping for farmers to make money and to do that with nitrogen.

接下來就看為了增產，還會再加上哪些第二次與第三次的追肥施用。我們在 2025 年有非常驚人的單產，我記得大約是每英畝 187 蒲式耳。我預期這可能會稍微回落一些，但我們希望農民能賺錢，而要做到這點就需要氮肥。

Okay. Thanks.

好的。謝謝。

Lucas Beaumont, UBS.

Lucas Beaumont，瑞銀（UBS）。

Thanks. Good morning. Yeah, I just wanted to follow-up on how you're seeing the outlook for nitrogen pricing as we move through the next couple of quarters. So, I mean, there's been no improvement yet in terms of trade flows, and then we have a significant portion of global production offline.

謝謝。早安。我想追問一下，隨著我們進入接下來幾個季度，你們如何看待氮肥定價的展望。我的意思是，貿易流向目前仍未見改善，而且全球有相當一部分產能處於停產狀態。

But as we get past the peak Northern Hemisphere demand period, however, there's probably likely to be less incentive for people to, I guess, restock during the year than what you would see normally. I mean, offsetting that Brazil demand will pick up for the third quarter with imports.

但當我們度過北半球需求高峰期之後，人們在年內補庫的誘因，可能會比一般情況更低。不過另一方面，巴西的需求在第三季會隨著進口而回升。

And we have shortages in the other importing regions globally coupled with just how the normal seasonal factors would buy out. So I guess, could you just help us understand how do you see the interplay of those factors there together and what you think is going to happen sequentially as we move forward over the next few months?

同時，其他全球進口地區也存在短缺，再加上正常的季節性因素會如何發揮作用。所以我想請你們協助我們理解：這些因素彼此之間如何交互影響？以及你們認為未來幾個月，按季（sequentially）會如何演變？

Yeah, Lucas, we're still, this is Bert, and we're at the peak of our movement for North America. So at CF, we're focused on supplying our North American customers to make sure we make it through spring applications with adequate supply and communicating daily with our customers.

是的，Lucas，我們仍然——我是 Bert——而且我們正處於北美業務推進的高峰期。因此在 CF，我們專注於供應北美客戶，確保我們能以充足供應度過春季施用期，並且每天與客戶溝通。

But the outlook for, I would say, Q3 and Q4 is higher than normal, and I can't give an exact price. I do think what Chris said in terms of what is going to come back and when it comes back from the Middle Eastern suppliers, that's 30% of global urea, but it's 20% of LNG.

但我會說，對於第三季和第四季的展望高於正常水準，我無法給出確切價格。我確實認同 Chris 所說的：中東供應商的供應會回來多少、以及何時回來——那部分約占全球尿素的 30%，但只占 LNG 的 20%。

And so there are a lot of countries that produce nitrogen that are dependent upon that LNG to make those nitrogen plants operate, and I think you're going to lose some of that capacity. So in a 56 million-ton export-traded market.

因此，有許多生產氮肥的國家仰賴該 LNG 來讓氮肥工廠運轉，我認為你會失去其中一部分產能。所以在一個 5,600 萬噸的出口貿易市場中。

With, let's say, 18 million of that on an annualized basis taken out, so on a monthly basis, you have 1.5 million to 2 million tons not available from March, April, and now May. So adding up, just to be conservative, maybe 5 million tons. So you need all of China to come out aggressively so.

假設其中有 1,800 萬噸按年化基礎被移除，那麼按月來看，從 3 月、4 月到現在 5 月，每月就有 150 萬到 200 萬噸無法供應。因此累計起來，保守估計大概 500 萬噸。所以你需要中國全面且積極地釋出供應才行。

To balance that, I don't think that's possible. And then you go to the importing countries, like we mentioned India, which is imported between, let's say, 6 to 9 million tons over the last several years. We're expecting them to be 10 to 13 million tons because of the low operating rate of their LNG import-dependent plants.

要平衡這個缺口，我認為不太可能。接著看進口國，如我們提到的印度，過去幾年進口量大約在 600 萬到 900 萬噸之間。由於其依賴 LNG 進口的工廠開工率偏低，我們預期他們會達到 1,000 萬到 1,300 萬噸。

So you've lessened supply, you've increased demand. Specific to that country as well as in South America, I don't see their import needs changing or going down unless they're going to have an impact on grains and oil seed production.

所以供給減少、需求增加。就該國以及南美而言，除非他們願意讓穀物與油籽作物產量受到影響，否則我看不到其進口需求會改變或下降。

And so trade flows right now are you're having to ship longer distances to cover immediate needs. Freight rates are high, much higher than normal, probably double, so the outlook for end pricing is.

因此目前的貿易流向是：你必須運輸更長距離來滿足即時需求。運費很高，遠高於正常水準，可能是兩倍，因此終端價格的展望是。

Higher than normal for longer and the restock, I don't know if the restock can be done in time without severe disruptions as in demurrage at the Brazilian ports or late arrivals for some other locations. So you're going to have shortages.

將在更長時間內維持高於正常水準；至於補庫，我不確定能否在不出現嚴重干擾的情況下及時完成，例如巴西港口的滯期費（demurrage）或其他地點的延遲到港。所以你將會出現短缺。

Yeah, I think that's why we're very confident how this pushes into 2027. And I think the one part that Bert touched on earlier was really the nationalism and the regionalism of energy in general. And are these countries going to want to export what they have exported historically to even fill some of those gaps that are already tight? So this is something where we see going through. 2027 and allowing us to provide probably or generate significant free cash flow even during that particular timeframe as well.

是的，我想這就是為什麼我們非常有信心這會一路延續到 2027 年。而我認為 Bert 先前提到的一點，確實是能源整體的民族主義與區域主義。這些國家是否還願意像過去那樣出口他們歷來出口的產品，甚至去填補那些本來就已經很緊的缺口？因此我們看到這種情況會持續到 2027 年，並且也讓我們在那段期間仍能提供或創造可觀的自由現金流。

Andrew Wong, RBC Capital.

Andrew Wong，RBC Capital。

Hey, good morning. I just wanted to ask about your expansion plans.

嗨，早安。我想問一下你們的擴產計畫。

So, given elevated nitrogen prices both now and into the future, plus the tightness in feedstock like you mentioned, and obviously the competitive advantage in North America and the better return profile for North American nitrogen, does that change how you think about expansion plans? Could you accelerate plan to add more capacity?

所以，考量到目前以及未來氮肥價格都處於高檔，再加上你提到的原料供應緊張，且北美顯然具備競爭優勢、北美氮肥的報酬結構也更好，這會改變你們對擴產計畫的看法嗎？你們會加速增加產能的計畫嗎？

Well, thank you, Andrew, for the question. It's something that we review consistently around the organization, and we have quite a bit going on right now with projects that we're looking at that go over and above what is with Blue Point. But I think what we're looking at is, given the bandwidth and where we are right now is just seeing that those particular investments that are in motion or that we're considering are seeing higher return profiles than what we expected.

Andrew，謝謝你的提問。這是我們在公司內部持續檢視的議題；目前我們正在評估不少專案，範圍也超出 Blue Point 既有規劃。但我想我們正在看到的是：在目前的資源承載量（bandwidth）以及我們所處的位置下，那些已在推進中或正在考慮的投資，其報酬輪廓高於我們原先預期。

As I mentioned earlier on the call, we are continuing to evaluate what we would do at the site, the Blue Point site. It is a site that we can expand on over time, but I think there's certain answers that we want. On the first unit before we had moved forward. One is to get the permitting through.

如我先前在電話會議中提到的，我們仍在評估在 Blue Point 場址要怎麼做。那是一個可以隨時間擴建的場址，但我認為在推進第一套裝置之前，我們有一些問題希望先得到答案。其中之一是在我們往前走之前。第一是把許可（permitting）辦下來。

The second plant there would see some efficiencies, given the infrastructure would already be in place, that being the dock, tanks, off-sites, et cetera. So it's something we're considering, but nothing that is imminent at this particular timeframe. What I would say is with the cash that we've generated so far and what we expect over these next several years, our capital allocation philosophy hasn't changed. We're going to be extremely disciplined how we look at investments.

那裡的第二座工廠會因為基礎設施已經到位而帶來一些效率提升，例如碼頭、儲槽、外圍設施（off-sites）等等。所以這是我們正在考慮的方向，但在目前這個時間點並沒有迫在眉睫的決策。我想說的是，基於我們迄今產生的現金，以及我們預期未來幾年將產生的現金，我們的資本配置理念並沒有改變。我們在評估投資時會非常自律。

And critical as to how we evaluate them. And then in addition to that, I think what we have on the table, we have excess free cash flow that we're expecting to generate that will return in the form of either share repurchases or dividends to our shareholders.

並且會以嚴謹標準來評估。此外，我認為我們目前也預期會產生超額自由現金流，並將以庫藏股回購或股利的形式回饋給股東。

Yeah, that's great. Thank you very much.

好的，太好了。非常感謝。

Jeff Zekauskas, JPMorgan.

Jeff Zekauskas，JPMorgan。

Thanks very much. If I can ask you a speculative question, given the confusion over CBAM and carbon dioxide emissions generally, and given the shortages in the nitrogen markets. Do you expect new plants in the United States to be steam methane reformers again, rather than autothermal reactors, or is it too difficult to tell?

非常感謝。如果我可以問一個推測性問題：鑑於外界對 CBAM 以及整體二氧化碳排放的困惑，再加上氮肥市場的短缺。你是否預期美國的新工廠會再次採用蒸汽甲烷重整（steam methane reformers），而不是自熱式反應器（autothermal reactors），還是說現在還很難判斷？

Well, I think the confusion over CBAM may be a little overstated. CBAM is in place today, and I think if you've been following what the European Commission and the European Parliament. There really hasn't been any change, of course. If anything, I would say it's almost gotten stronger that CBAM is going to remain in place.

我認為對 CBAM 的困惑可能有點被誇大了。CBAM 目前已經在實施中；而且如果你一直在關注歐盟執委會與歐洲議會的動向。其實並沒有任何改變，當然。若要說的話，我會說 CBAM 幾乎變得更強勢，將會持續存在。

We view the decarbonization, I can really only speak for ourselves as providing incremental opportunity that doesn't exist to others. I think if you look at what we've done both with the 45Q, with the shipments we're making at a premium into Europe, and then our recent announcement with Pepsi and other CPG companies that we're looking at working with.

我們看待去碳化（decarbonization）——我只能代表我們自己——是帶來他人所沒有的增量機會。我想如果你看看我們在 45Q 方面所做的、我們以溢價向歐洲出貨，以及我們最近與百事（Pepsi）及其他 CPG 公司合作意向的公告。

We look at decarbonization as creating value and see the value in doing it autothermal to recover as much of that CO2 as we possibly can. So I can't necessarily speculate for others, but I know what our path forward and the value that we're seeing, not only in the future, but that we're accruing today.

我們認為去碳化是在創造價值；而採用自熱式（autothermal）能讓我們盡可能回收更多 CO2，我們也看到了其中的價值。所以我不一定能替其他人推測，但我知道我們前進的路徑，以及我們所看到的價值——不僅是未來的，也包括我們今天正在累積的。

Okay. Do you think -- thanks for that. Have the contractual terms for ammonia with industrial customers changed over time? And do you think that there's room to make those financial terms more attractive to producers as the nitrogen markets have tightened through the years?

好的。你覺得——謝謝你的說明。與工業客戶簽訂的氨產品合約條款，是否隨時間有所改變？另外，隨著多年來氮肥市場趨緊，你認為是否有空間讓這些財務條款對生產商更具吸引力？

Regarding the contractual terms, so how we look at our business and we segment, the majority of our tons go to agriculture and then we have an export portion and then we have an industrial portion that's fairly ratable. And we look at those dynamics each year to make sure we're placing the tons where they're most valued and those relationships are obviously contributing to both sides. So many conversations regarding.

關於合約條款，我們看待業務的方式是進行分項：我們大部分的噸數供應農業，然後有一部分出口，另外還有一部分工業端，需求相當穩定、可預期。我們每年都會檢視這些動態，以確保把噸數配置到最有價值的去處，而這些關係顯然也在為雙方創造貢獻。因此，關於這方面有很多對話。

Contractual terms, but the actual terms haven't changed, but the implementation of low-carbon and the low-carbon premium that we're receiving and that we're communicating consistently to our. Our industrial customers, our export customers who are under CBAM issues are attractive.

就合約條款而言，實際條款並沒有改變，但低碳的落實，以及我們正在取得的低碳溢價，並且我們也持續一致地向我們的客戶溝通。我們的工業客戶、以及面臨 CBAM 議題的出口客戶，對此都覺得很有吸引力。

And as I think industrial companies look to their own scope of emissions and want to improve those, and Pepsi is a very good example of that partnership as well as POET on ethanol and talking with other similar producers, we're seeing a positive receptivity and wanting to align with CF.

而且我認為，當工業公司檢視自身的排放範疇並希望改善時，百事（Pepsi）就是很好的合作案例；另外還有 POET 在乙醇方面的合作，以及我們也在與其他類似的生產商洽談。我們看到市場反應正面，大家也希望與 CF 對齊。

This is a growth platform for us. It's economically attractive. It's returning a good investment for us, and it's aligning us with what I think are good goals both thematically, culturally, and environmentally with ourselves and with our customers.

這對我們而言是一個成長平台。在經濟上很有吸引力。它為我們帶來良好的投資回報，同時也讓我們在主題、文化與環境面向上，與我們自身以及客戶所追求的良好目標保持一致。

Great. Thanks.

很好。謝謝。

Mazahir Mammadli, Rothschild.

Mazahir Mammadli，Rothschild。

Thank you. Just a follow-up on the gas costs. So the Q1 came in at $4.5. What would you expect the trajectory to be during the rest of the year? Thank you.

謝謝。我想追問一下天然氣成本。第一季是 4.5 美元。你預期今年剩餘時間的走勢會如何？謝謝。

Yeah, I'll start, and then Bert or Rich can add any color to it. But I think the first quarter, we experienced a couple of different things in that. Both January and February, we saw elevated Henry Hub gas cost here with, I think, February even settling at over $7 per MMBTU. Since that timeframe, it was pretty acute.

好的，我先回答，之後 Bert 或 Rich 可以再補充。我認為第一季我們遇到幾個不同因素。一月和二月，我們看到這裡的 Henry Hub 天然氣成本偏高，我想二月甚至結算在每 MMBTU 超過 7 美元。在那段期間，波動相當劇烈。

Portion of the quarter or of the year in which that occurred, we've seen gas come down significantly, where today I think it's trading in the $2.60 type of range, and we're seeing as the curve goes out, it flattens even more. So our expectation is that we're going to see the gas costs for the remaining part of the year very close to what we're seeing in the [NIMAC] strip today.

那是該季或該年度中發生的某一段期間；之後我們看到天然氣價格大幅回落，今天我想大約在 2.60 美元左右交易；而且隨著曲線往後延伸，走勢更趨平坦。因此，我們的預期是，今年剩餘時間的天然氣成本會非常接近我們今天在 [NIMAC] 期貨帶（strip）上看到的水準。

Yeah, and we're not hedged on a forward basis, so we're open and receiving those prices that are represented in IMEX.

是的，而且我們沒有做遠期避險，所以我們是敞口，並按 IMEX 所反映的價格來承接。

Thank you. And just a follow-up on the production volumes. I believe early in the year, you communicated the intent to switch to UAM from UREA to take advantage of better production margins. Has that strategy effectively been reversed with urea price having surged much higher than UAN?

謝謝。另外追問一下產量。我記得年初你們曾表示，打算從尿素（UREA）轉向 UAN，以利用更好的生產利差。但現在尿素價格大幅上漲、遠高於 UAN，這個策略是否等於已經反向了？

Well, the interesting thing about our capabilities is we can switch on a shift. So a shift, an 8- to 10-hour shift at a plant, and that is well coordinated with our team on economic value. And so as the urea values increased and probably exceeded the opportunities with UAN, you would expect that we would. But in terms of the capabilities of the specific plants, we would be achieving that.

嗯，我們能力有趣的一點是，我們可以在一個班次內切換。也就是工廠一個 8 到 10 小時的班次就能切換，而且我們的團隊會基於經濟價值做很好的協調。因此，當尿素價值上升、而且可能超過 UAN 的機會時，你會預期我們會這麼做。就特定工廠的能力而言，我們確實可以做到。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Kristen Owen, Oppenheimer.

Kristen Owen，Oppenheimer。

Thank you for taking my follow-up. I didn't think I was going to get one. Just wanted to ask on your maintenance schedule. I think you've made some public comments out there about maybe delaying some maintenance in order to ensure domestic supply. Just if you can help us on how you're thinking about that maintenance schedule for the rest of the year. Thank you.

謝謝讓我追問。我原本以為不會輪到我。我想問一下你們的維修排程。我想你們之前有一些公開評論，提到可能為了確保國內供應而延後部分維修。能否請你們說明一下，對於今年剩餘時間的維修排程，你們是怎麼思考的？謝謝。

Yeah. The maintenance that we had shifted in, we did it after evaluating to ensure that we could do it safely was at one of our particular sites, and it was already scheduled to be late in May, and we just shifted it to late in June.

好的。我們調整的那項維修，是在評估並確保能安全執行後，針對我們某個特定廠址進行的；原本就排在 5 月下旬，我們只是把它移到 6 月下旬。

So it wasn't a significant amount of a shift that we were doing, but allowed us to get, as Bert mentioned, about another 100,000 tons of urea up into the market in order to go down for this application season. Other than that, I would say we have it pretty well where it's going to be the typical, maintenance that we've done historically, and you can use that as a benchmark.

所以這不是很大幅度的調整，但如 Bert 提到的，這讓我們能再多把大約 10 萬噸尿素投放到市場，以便在這個施用季節前供應市場。除此之外，我會說我們的安排大致就是我們歷來的典型維修節奏，你們可以把過往作為參考基準。

Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, that is all the time we have for questions for today. I would like to turn the call back over to Martin Jarosick for any closing remarks.

謝謝。各位女士先生，今天的提問時間到此為止。我想把電話交回給 Martin Jarosick，請他做結語。

Thanks, everyone, for joining us and we look forward to seeing you at upcoming conferences.

謝謝各位參與，我們期待在接下來的會議上與大家見面。

Thank you. The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect. Thank you.

謝謝。本次電話會議到此結束。感謝各位出席今天的簡報。您現在可以掛線。謝謝。