CF工業控股 (CF) 2026 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to CF Industries' first nine months and third quarter of 2026 conference call. (Operator Instructions)

各位女士、各位先生，大家好，歡迎參加 CF Industries 2026 年前九個月及第三季電話法說會。(接線員指示)

I would now like to turn the presentation over to the host for today, Mr. Martin Jarosick with CF Investor Relations. Sir, please proceed.

現在我想把簡報交給今天的主持人——CF 投資人關係部的 Martin Jarosick 先生。先生，請開始。

Good morning, and thanks for joining the CF Industries earnings conference call. With me today are Chris Bohn, President and CEO; Bert Frost, Executive Vice President and Chief Commercial Officer; and Andrew Scribner, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. CF Industries reported its results for the first nine months and third quarter of 2026 yesterday afternoon.

各位早安，感謝各位參加 CF Industries 的財報電話會議。今天與我一同出席的有：總裁暨執行長 Chris Bohn、執行副總裁暨首席商務長 Bert Frost，以及執行副總裁暨財務長 Andrew Scribner。CF Industries 已於昨天下午公布 2026 年前九個月及第三季的業績。

On this call, we'll review the results, discuss our outlook and then host a question-and-answer session. Statements made on this call and in the presentation on our website that are not historical facts are forward-looking statements. These statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve risks, uncertainties and assumptions that are difficult to predict.

在本次電話會議中，我們將回顧業績、討論展望，接著進行問答環節。本次電話會議以及我們網站簡報中所提及、非歷史事實的陳述，均屬前瞻性陳述。這些陳述不保證未來表現，且涉及難以預測的風險、不確定性與假設。

Therefore, actual outcomes and results may differ materially from what is expressed or implied in any statements. More detailed information about factors that may affect our performance may be found in our filings with the SEC, which are available on our website. Also, you'll find reconciliations between GAAP and non-GAAP measures in the press release and presentation posted on our website. Now let me introduce Chris Bohn.

因此，實際結果與成果可能與任何陳述中明示或暗示的內容存在重大差異。有關可能影響我們表現之因素的更詳細資訊，請參閱我們向 SEC 提交的文件，並可於我們網站取得。此外，您也可在我們網站發布的新聞稿與簡報中，找到 GAAP 與非 GAAP 指標之間的調節表。現在讓我介紹 Chris Bohn。

Thanks, Martin, and good morning, everyone. Yesterday afternoon, we reported results for the first nine months of 2026 in which we generated adjusted EBITDA of approximately $3 billion. Our results reflect the strength of CF Industries' operational performance and the structural advantages of our business.

謝謝你，Martin，各位早安。昨天下午，我們公布 2026 年前九個月的業績，調整後 EBITDA 約為 30 億美元。我們的成果反映了 CF Industries 營運表現的強勁，以及我們業務的結構性優勢。

At the foundation of that performance is our team's relentless focus on safety excellence. We closed the quarter with a trailing 12-month incident rate of 0.1 incidents for 200,000 hours worked, well below industry averages. That outstanding safety performance directly supports reliable production and high asset utilization.

支撐這項表現的基礎，是我們團隊對卓越安全的持續專注。本季結束時，我們過去 12 個月的事故率為每 20 萬工時 0.1 起事故，遠低於產業平均。這項傑出的安全表現，直接支撐穩定生產與高資產利用率。

Since the beginning of the year, we have operated our available ammonia capacity at 97% utilization. Along with our consistent operational performance, we benefit from the structural advantages of our low-cost, low-risk North American asset base.

自年初以來，我們可用的氨產能利用率達到 97%。除了穩定一致的營運表現外，我們也受惠於北美資產基礎所帶來的低成本、低風險結構性優勢。

Our low-cost position on the global nitrogen cost curve supports our current $2.9 billion mid-cycle EBITDA estimate, while our low-risk network provides upside during periods of global nitrogen market disruption. We have seen that dynamic play out this year with adjusted EBITDA through the first 9 months already exceeding our mid-cycle.

我們在全球氮肥成本曲線上的低成本地位，支撐我們目前 29 億美元的中周期 EBITDA 估計；同時，我們的低風險網絡在全球氮肥市場出現供應擾動期間提供上行空間。今年我們已看到這種動態發揮作用，因為前九個月的調整後 EBITDA 已經超過我們的中周期水準。

Together, these strengths translate into strong cash generation. CF Industries consistently convert approximately 60% of EBITDA into free cash flow. The highest rate in the materials sector and well above other fertilizer companies. This gives us the financial strength to invest in high-return projects while returning capital to shareholders.

綜合上述優勢，轉化為強勁的現金創造能力。CF Industries 一貫可將約 60% 的 EBITDA 轉換為自由現金流。這是材料產業中最高的比率，且明顯高於其他肥料公司。這使我們具備財務實力，在回饋股東資本的同時，投資於高報酬專案。

Today, we are making tangible progress on investments to grow our advantaged network and enhance margins. Blue Point One began site construction in August. Donaldsonville CCS is operating well and the Yazoo City CCS project is progressing towards start-up in 2028. We expect these projects to add $400 million to our mid-cycle EBITDA estimate by 2030, bringing it to $3.3 billion.

目前，我們在擴大具優勢的網絡並提升利潤率的投資上，正取得具體進展。Blue Point One 已於 8 月開始工地施工。Donaldsonville CCS 運作良好，而 Yazoo City CCS 專案正朝 2028 年啟用目標推進。我們預期到 2030 年，這些專案將為我們的中周期 EBITDA 估計增加 4 億美元，使其提升至 33 億美元。

Further out, we have begun a FEED study for our Courtright diesel exhaust fluid project. Alongside those investments, we have returned $1.3 billion to shareholders over the last 12 months through share repurchases and dividends. Over that period, we have repurchased approximately 6% of our outstanding shares bringing total repurchases over the last three years to 22% of outstanding shares.

更長期而言，我們已開始針對 Courtright 柴油廢氣處理液（DEF）專案進行 FEED（前端工程設計）研究。除上述投資外，過去 12 個月我們透過庫藏股回購與股利，已向股東回饋 13 億美元。在此期間，我們回購了約 6% 的流通在外股份，使得過去三年累計回購達流通在外股份的 22%。

Taken together, our structural advantages, operating performance, growth investments and disciplined capital allocation position us to build on our track record of compounding value for long-term shareholders.

綜合而言，我們的結構性優勢、營運表現、成長投資與嚴謹的資本配置，使我們得以在長期股東價值持續累積的既有紀錄上再接再厲。

With that, I'll turn it over to Bert to discuss the global nitrogen market environment. Bert?

接下來我把時間交給 Bert，請他說明全球氮肥市場環境。Bert？

Thanks, Chris. The global nitrogen market environment remained constructive through the third quarter. Demand strengthened as the quarter progressed, while supply remained constrained. Buying activity accelerated in North America, South America and Europe as deferred demand returned to the market.

謝謝你，Chris。全球氮肥市場環境在第三季持續呈現有利態勢。隨著季度推進，需求轉強，而供給仍然受限。隨著先前延後的需求回到市場，北美、南美與歐洲的採購活動加速。

Corn and wheat value strengthened during the third quarter before giving back some of the gains in the fourth quarter. At the same time, nitrogen values remain below the peaks reached during spring applications. We saw that demand pick up clearly in North America. Participation in our fall ammonia program has been very strong.

玉米與小麥價格在第三季走強，但在第四季回吐部分漲幅。同時，氮肥價格仍低於春季施肥高峰時的水準。我們清楚看到北美需求回升。我們的秋季氨計畫參與度非常強勁。

Weather permitting, we expect fall ammonia volumes to be amongst our highest in the last 10 years. Our UAN fill program also helped us ship nearly 2 million tons in the third quarter, our largest quarterly UAN volume this decade. Globally, demand also remains robust. India has maintained a steady pace of urea tenders, and we expect imports to exceed 10 million metric tons this year.

在天候允許的情況下，我們預期秋季氨銷量將是過去 10 年中最高水準之一。我們的 UAN 裝填計畫也協助我們在第三季出貨接近 200 萬噸，為本十年單季最高的 UAN 出貨量。在全球範圍內，需求同樣維持強勁。印度維持穩定的尿素招標節奏，我們預期今年進口量將超過 1,000 萬公噸。

Brazil has been slower to purchase in part because of credit constraints. However, improved crop values in the third quarter supported farmer economics and demand there. With nitrogen inventories low across the global system, including North America, South America, Europe and Southeast Asia, we believe substantial purchasing remains ahead.

巴西採購步調較慢，部分原因是信貸限制。然而，第三季作物價格改善支撐了當地農民的經濟性與需求。由於全球體系的氮肥庫存偏低（包括北美、南美、歐洲與東南亞），我們認為後續仍有大量採購需求。

On the supply side, geopolitical disruptions remain a significant factor. Since hostilities began in the Middle East in late February, we estimate that the global market has lost approximately 9 million metric tons of urea supply.

在供給端，地緣政治擾動仍是重要因素。自 2 月下旬中東爆發敵對行動以來，我們估計全球市場約減少 900 萬公噸的尿素供應。

Shipping availability and significantly higher freight and insurance costs remain constrained. Russia is another source of uncertainty. While production levels and plant availability are difficult to assess, disruptions in the Black Sea shipping lanes have affected traditional routes.

航運可用性仍受限，且運費與保險成本大幅上升。俄羅斯也是另一個不確定來源。雖然產量水準與工廠可用性難以評估，但黑海航運航道的中斷已影響傳統路線。

At the same time, high-cost producers remain under pressure. European producers faced challenging economics from high natural gas prices. We believe more than 35% of ammonia capacity in the region is curtailed. Additionally, natural gas availability continues to constrain production in other regions.

同時，高成本生產商仍承受壓力。歐洲生產商因天然氣價格高企而面臨艱困的經濟性。我們認為該地區超過 35% 的氨產能已被削減或停產。此外，其他地區的天然氣供應可得性也持續限制生產。

Chinese urea exports are helping to fill part of the global supply gap, particularly into India but have not materially loosened the global nitrogen supply-demand balance. We expect the Chinese government to continue to manage export levels in line with its domestic food security policies.

中國尿素出口正在協助填補部分全球供應缺口，特別是流向印度，但並未實質性地放鬆全球氮肥供需平衡。我們預期中國政府將持續依其國內糧食安全政策，管理出口水準。

Against this backdrop, we expect the global nitrogen supply-demand balance to remain constructive into 2027. Purchasing activity that was delayed earlier this year is now being realized. Global inventories remain low and meaningful portions of global production and trade remain constrained.

在此背景下，我們預期全球氮肥供需平衡將在 2027 年之前仍維持有利態勢。今年稍早延後的採購活動如今正在實現。全球庫存仍偏低，且全球生產與貿易中仍有相當比例持續受限。

Longer term, our outlook has not changed. Nitrogen capacity currently under construction is not sufficient to meet global nitrogen demand growth and expected permanent shutdowns through 2030. Additionally, the timeline and capital costs required to bring future capacity online have become longer and more challenging. This supports a structurally tighter global nitrogen environment through the end of the decade and reinforces the value of CF Industries' low-cost, low-risk North American production and distribution network.

長期來看，我們的展望並未改變。目前在建的氮肥產能不足以滿足全球氮肥需求成長，以及至 2030 年預期的永久性關停。此外，讓未來產能上線所需的時程與資本成本已變得更長且更具挑戰。這支持全球氮肥市場在本十年末之前呈現結構性更緊俏的態勢，並強化了 CF Industries 低成本、低風險的北美生產與配送網路的價值。

With that, I'll turn the call over to Andrew.

接下來，我把電話交給 Andrew。

Thanks, Bert, and good morning, everyone. For the first nine months of 2026, the company reported net earnings attributable to common stockholders of approximately $1.8 billion or $11.60 per diluted share. EBITDA and adjusted EBITDA were both approximately $3 billion. For the third quarter, net earnings attributable to common stockholders were $436 million or $2.87 per diluted share. EBITDA was $822 million and adjusted EBITDA was $833 million. We continue to convert EBITDA into free cash flow at a consistently high rate.

謝謝你，Bert，各位早安。2026 年前九個月，公司報告歸屬於普通股股東的淨利約 18 億美元，或每股稀釋盈餘 11.60 美元。EBITDA 與調整後 EBITDA 均約為 30 億美元。第三季，歸屬於普通股股東的淨利為 4.36 億美元，或每股稀釋盈餘 2.87 美元。EBITDA 為 8.22 億美元，調整後 EBITDA 為 8.33 億美元。我們持續以一貫的高比率將 EBITDA 轉化為自由現金流。

Our trailing 12-month net cash from operations was approximately $3.1 billion, and free cash flow was approximately $2 billion. As you can see on slide 9, our EBITDA to free cash flow conversion has averaged approximately 60% over the last five years. Conversion over the last 12 months has been slightly lower due to $306 million of deposits related to historical US, Canada transfer pricing matter dating back to 2012. These deposits limit the accrual of additional interest in Canada, while the matter is resolved between the two governments.

過去 12 個月的營運活動淨現金流約為 31 億美元，自由現金流約為 20 億美元。如投影片 9 所示，過去五年我們的 EBITDA 轉自由現金流轉換率平均約為 60%。過去 12 個月的轉換率略低，原因是與 2012 年起的美國、加拿大歷史移轉訂價事項相關的 3.06 億美元押金。在兩國政府解決該事項期間，這些押金可限制加拿大端額外利息的累計。

Following resolution, we expect to file amended US federal and state tax returns seeking refunds of related taxes previously paid. Looking ahead, our 2026 consolidated capital expenditure outlook remains approximately $1.3 billion with CF Industries' share at approximately $950 million.

在問題解決後，我們預期將提交修正後的美國聯邦與州稅申報表，申請退還先前已繳納的相關稅款。展望未來，我們 2026 年合併資本支出展望仍約為 13 億美元，其中 CF Industries 的份額約為 9.5 億美元。

Construction on the Blue Point One ammonia plant is moving forward in line with our expectations. The projected total cost remains $3.7 billion with ammonia production expected to commence in 2029. The cost of Blue Point common facilities also remains our initial estimate of $550 million. Our 40% share of the remaining investment in Blue Point One will be spread over three years is manageable given our consistently strong free cash flow generation. At the same time, we continue to return substantial capital to shareholders.

Blue Point One 氨廠的建設正依照我們的預期推進。預估總成本仍為 37 億美元，預期於 2029 年開始生產氨。Blue Point 共用設施的成本也仍維持我們最初估計的 5.5 億美元。我們在 Blue Point One 剩餘投資中的 40% 份額將分三年投入；鑑於我們一貫強勁的自由現金流創造能力，這是可控的。同時，我們也持續向股東返還可觀的資本。

During the third quarter, we repurchased 3 million shares for approximately $367 million. As we discussed last quarter, we believe the market continues to drive too much of our earnings and free cash flow performance to short-term geopolitical factors. The structural advantages as Chris discussed, combined with the global nitrogen supply-demand dynamics Bert outlined, underpin our confidence in CF Industries' mid-cycle earnings power. We do not believe our earnings power is fully reflected in our valuation, supporting our continued opportunistic share repurchases.

第三季期間，我們以約 3.67 億美元回購了 300 萬股。如同我們上季所討論的，我們認為市場仍將我們的獲利與自由現金流表現過度歸因於短期地緣政治因素。Chris 所談到的結構性優勢，加上 Bert 概述的全球氮肥供需動態，支撐我們對 CF Industries 中周期獲利能力的信心。我們不認為我們的獲利能力已在估值中充分反映，因此支持我們持續把握機會進行股票回購。

With that, I'll hand it back to Chris before we open the call for Q&A.

接下來，在我們開放問答之前，我把電話交回給 Chris。

Thanks, Andrew. I want to thank CF Industries employees for their outstanding performance through the first 9 months of 2026. Our team is operating safely and executing exceptionally well while navigating significant disruption in the global nitrogen market. We are especially proud of our team's commitment to safety excellence. Our recordable incident rate at the end of the quarter was the lowest we've ever achieved as a company, a testament to our employees living our Do It Right culture every day.

謝謝你，Andrew。我要感謝 CF Industries 員工在 2026 年前九個月的傑出表現。在全球氮肥市場面臨重大擾動之際，我們的團隊仍能安全運作並展現卓越的執行力。我們尤其為團隊對卓越安全的承諾感到自豪。截至本季末，我們的可記錄事故率為公司歷來最低，這證明我們的員工每天都在實踐「Do It Right」文化。

That commitment was also on display in this year's Wilson Award for Safety Excellence. Our Medicine Hat complex earned this year's award, and I want to recognize that team, along with all of our finalists for the innovative approaches to safety they developed and shared. As you've heard today, structural changes in the global nitrogen market are reinforcing the value of CF Industries low-cost, low-risk North American asset base.

這份承諾也在今年的 Wilson 安全卓越獎中展現無遺。我們的 Medicine Hat 廠區獲得今年的獎項；我也要表揚該團隊，以及所有入圍團隊在安全方面所開發並分享的創新作法。如各位今天所聽到的，全球氮肥市場的結構性變化正強化 CF Industries 低成本、低風險的北美資產基礎之價值。

Combined with our consistent operational execution, differentiated sales and distribution capabilities and industry-leading free cash flow conversion, we have a strong foundation for long-term shareholder value creation. We are building on that foundation today through disciplined growth investments and capital returns.

結合我們一貫的營運執行力、差異化的銷售與配送能力，以及業界領先的自由現金流轉換率，我們具備創造長期股東價值的堅實基礎。我們正透過嚴謹的成長投資與資本回饋，在今日持續奠基於此。

As you can see on slide 10, our current growth projects, combined with our existing share repurchase authorization are expected to increase nitrogen per share by 15% by 2030. These initiatives build on our long track record of compounding value and leave us well positioned to continue to create value for long-term shareholders. With that, operator, we'll open the call to questions.

如投影片 10 所示，我們目前的成長專案，加上既有的股票回購授權，預期將使每股氮肥（nitrogen per share）到 2030 年提升 15%。這些舉措延續我們長期累積價值的優良紀錄，並使我們處於有利位置，得以持續為長期股東創造價值。接下來，接線員，我們開放提問。

(Operator Instructions)

（接線員指示）

Kristen Owen, Oppenheimer.

Kristen Owen，Oppenheimer。

I just wanted to start with, sort of, your long-term supply outlook. You called out the 37% of European nameplate capacity that's currently curtailed. Just given the volatility in energy prices, never mind the absolute cost challenges. Like what's the structural settling out point? And has your view on the long-term supply backdrop changed?

我想先從你們的長期供給展望談起。你們提到目前歐洲有 37% 的名目產能正處於減產狀態。考量能源價格的波動性，更不用說絕對成本的挑戰。那麼結構性最終會落在什麼水準？你們對長期供給背景的看法有改變嗎？

Kristen, I would say our view has not changed. I think it's something that we've been talking about for quite a while. The only part that has changed -- our view, I should say, in the aggregate, hasn't changed, is we believe it's going to accelerate from what we thought was a 2030 time frame with some of those European shutdowns to occur whether it be 12 months or 18 months sooner than that given the current dynamics that you discussed in the energy volatility.

Kristen，我會說我們的看法沒有改變。我認為這是我們談了相當一段時間的事情。唯一改變的部分——我應該說，我們整體的看法並未改變——是我們認為相較於原先預期在 2030 年左右發生的部分歐洲關停，考量你提到的能源波動等目前動態，這些關停可能會加速，可能比原先預期提早 12 個月或 18 個月發生。

So today, we're seeing like you said, close to 40%, either offline or curtailed in Europe. And additionally, each quarter that this goes on makes it more and more challenging to start up that equipment because the capital cost that would be associated and additionally, to have fixed overhead absorption that continues and the work that's needed to keep that equipment in line to be started up at some unknown date is quite expensive.

所以今天，我們看到如你所說，歐洲接近 40% 的產能不是停工就是減產。此外，這種情況每持續一個季度，設備要重新啟動就變得更具挑戰，因為相關資本成本會增加；同時固定間接費用的吸收仍在持續，且為了讓設備維持在可於某個未知日期重新啟動的狀態所需的維護工作也相當昂貴。

So I would say our position on the tightening in the global S&D market has been one that we have back all the way to 2025. It's just being accelerated now. That's also being compounded by what we're seeing in Russia and Ukraine with no true resolution there. And I would even say what we're seeing in the Middle East even if there is some sort of resumption, it will take a while in order for that supply to begin flowing again.

因此我會說，我們對全球供需（S&D）市場趨緊的立場，早在 2025 年就已提出。只是現在正在加速。此外，俄羅斯與烏克蘭局勢未見真正解決，也使情況更加複雜。我甚至會說，即便中東供應出現某種程度的恢復，也需要一段時間供給才能重新開始流動。

And my follow-up is for Bert, I think you said fall application demand among the highest in 10 years. It's been a pretty dynamic year from a commodity price perspective. Obviously, a pretty healthy crop this year, but just maybe some indications on how you're thinking about acreage in 2027 would be helpful.

我的追問是給Bert的，我想你提到秋季施用需求是近10年來最高之一。從大宗商品價格的角度來看，今年相當動態。顯然今年作物收成相當健康，但如果你能分享一下你們對2027年種植面積的看法，會很有幫助。

The positive implications or directions in our Fall ammonia program, which is one of the highest in 10 years. One, it has to -- weather, we always put in the caveat of weather dependent because we're just starting the program now. We're well through our movement in Canada, and that's moving down into the Dakotas, then we have to move into the Illinois, Iowa and Nebraska states.

我們秋季無水氨（ammonia）方案的正面意涵或趨勢，是近10年來最高之一。第一，它必須——天氣，我們一向會加註「視天氣而定」的但書，因為我們現在才剛開始這個方案。我們在加拿大的調運已進行得很順利，接著會往達科他州移動，然後還要進入伊利諾伊、愛荷華與內布拉斯加等州。

So right now, that's a little bit delayed just because of the wet weather and elevated temperatures. But the -- right, the indications are with that big program for Fall applications does lead to positive implications for corn planting in 2027.

所以目前因為潮濕天氣與偏高氣溫而稍有延遲。但——對，跡象顯示這麼大的秋季施用方案，確實對2027年的玉米播種帶來正面意涵。

And what we're looking at is probably in line with what the other recommendations or indications are from the other players, is 95 million to 96 million acres could be elevated depending on pricing. Right now, where corn is settling, one of the positive things for this year is and for farm revenue is a settling of the crop revenue guarantee programs at $4.75 per harvest, that will lead to, I think, some -- a nice floor for a farmer in today's economics.

我們看到的情況大概也與其他業者的建議或指標一致：依價格而定，種植面積可能提高到9,500萬到9,600萬英畝。目前玉米價格的落點，今年以及農場收入的一個正面因素是作物收入保證（crop revenue guarantee）方案的結算價落在每蒲式耳4.75美元（以收穫期計），我認為這會在當前經濟環境下，為農民提供一個不錯的底部支撐。

And then interesting to see what's going to happen globally with yields due to, I think, some under-applications of nutrients around the world and what that does to stocks-to-use ratios and how that correlates then to demand, which we see as healthy in the ethanol and protein markets and then, therefore, drives price. And I would say the expectation is driving price for corn at least up in 2027, which could drive acreage even higher than the 95 or 96 that we're targeting today.

另外也很值得觀察全球因為我認為各地養分施用不足而造成的單產變化，這會如何影響庫存消費比（stocks-to-use ratios），以及進而如何與需求連動；我們看到乙醇與蛋白市場的需求都很健康，因而推動價格。我會說，至少到2027年，市場預期會推動玉米價格走高，這可能使種植面積甚至高於我們今天所鎖定的9,500萬或9,600萬英畝。

Andrew Wong, RBC Capital Markets.

Andrew Wong，RBC資本市場。

Just curious your thoughts on how you see the setup on nitrogen in the market today when you compare it to where we were last year. It seems like we're in a tighter situation with a lot of things you mentioned, higher energy prices.

我想請教你對目前氮肥市場格局的看法，若與去年相比，你怎麼看？感覺我們處在更緊的狀況，像你提到的很多因素，包括能源價格更高。

We also see stronger crop prices. When you look at nitrogen prices and like, I think, in aggregate, they're maybe only like 10% higher from where we were last year at this time. Like what's your thoughts on that? And why do you think that is?

我們也看到作物價格更強。但你看氮肥價格，整體來說，可能只比去年同期高大概10%。你怎麼看這件事？你覺得為什麼會這樣？

Yes, I think you're correct. In terms of your 10%, we are trading in the high $380s -- probably $360 to $380s last year and today, trading at $430 for Q4 for a short -- that's on a short ton for NOLA. And I do see a positive market going forward.

是的，我想你說得沒錯。就你提到的10%而言，我們的交易價格在380美元高檔——去年大概在每短噸360到380美元，而今天第四季在NOLA（紐奧良）每短噸交易約430美元。我確實看好後續市場走勢。

Just a lot of this demand that has been deferred is going to catch up and then you throw in like we've talked about a lack of supply and the first world countries that can pay and will pay as we go into the Northern Hemisphere planting and application seasons, we see a robust demand coming, and we're actually seeing that with orders for our UAN programs and urea as well.

很多先前被延後的需求會追上來；再加上我們談到的供給不足，以及那些有能力也願意付費的已開發國家，當北半球進入播種與施用季時，我們看到強勁需求將到來，而且我們在UAN方案與尿素（urea）的訂單上也確實看到了。

And so my expectation would be we're on a positive trajectory in at least the first half of 2027 for nitrogen pricing.

因此我的預期是，至少在2027年上半年，氮肥價格會走在正向軌道上。

Okay. Perfect. And then maybe just between the different products, you look at urea, ammonia, UAN, and we've seen more strength in ammonia and UAN recently, which I think is more reflective of what you've been seeing on European nat gas, but then urea seems to have lagged a bit, right? Like why do you think that is? And do you expect some catch-up as well on that?

好的，很棒。另外在不同產品之間，你看尿素、無水氨、UAN，我們最近看到無水氨與UAN更強勢，我想這更反映你們在歐洲天然氣上的觀察，但尿素似乎有點落後，對吧？你覺得為什麼會這樣？你也預期尿素會補漲嗎？

When you look at the global market in urea, you're trading about 4.5 million to 5 million tons per month seaborne traded. And I think with the Chinese supply that has come in to kind of covering what has been lost from the Middle East, as I said in my prepared remarks, we've probably lost 9 million tons, and it's in our deck of what's been lost and what's been made up with different places.

看全球尿素市場，海運貿易量每月大約交易450萬到500萬噸。我認為隨著中國供給進來，某種程度上補上了中東流失的量；如同我在事先準備的發言中提到的，我們大概少了900萬噸，我們的簡報資料也列出哪些供給流失、又由哪些地區補上。

And so as we're trending into the back half of this year and in Q4, I think the market is just in pause as you transition from hemispheres to hemispheres and planting and applications and building of supply.

因此當我們走向今年下半年與第四季時，我認為市場正處於一個暫停期，因為正從一個半球的季節轉換到另一個半球的季節，涉及播種、施用以及供給的建立。

But inventories are low across the globe in our channel checks. And so I do see a positive movement for urea. UAN has been trading on a higher differential to urea at this time, and we're seeing solid uptake in the UAN program for 2027 as well.

但根據我們的通路調查，全球庫存偏低。所以我確實看好尿素會有正向走勢。目前UAN相對尿素的價差（differential）較高，而我們也看到2027年的UAN方案有穩健的承接需求。

Ammonia globally is more impacted, you're correct, European demand and global demand for ammonia. As like Chris' comments mentioned, you're seeing curtailments and shutdowns and inability to source and that has driven ammonia up higher in recent weeks.

全球無水氨受到的影響更大，你說得沒錯，主要是歐洲對無水氨的需求以及全球需求。正如Chris的評論提到的，你會看到減產、停產以及無法取得原料的情況，這在最近幾週把無水氨價格推得更高。

James Hooper, Bernstein.

James Hooper，Bernstein。

How long do you think that the Northern Hemisphere farmer can wait before buying? I mean are they looking at events this week, thinking the Iran war might end and they can hold on for some time? Is that why pricing is only 10% higher than last year?

你覺得北半球農民在採購前還能等多久？我的意思是，他們是否在看本週的事件，覺得伊朗戰爭可能結束，所以可以再撐一段時間？這是否就是為什麼價格只比去年高10%的原因？

Well, I think you're seeing some indications of actual stepping in and buying. Our UAN program from our retail friends has been sold down a lot to farmers. And so that's a product we've already shipped. And we talked about the ammonia program, has been sold down to farmers. And I think ours and the other suppliers in United States and Canada have also done and never had or have prepared a good program for fall, which indicates, again, farmer uptake.

嗯，我認為你已經看到一些實際進場採購的跡象。我們零售端夥伴的UAN方案已經大量賣給農民。所以那是我們已經出貨的產品。我們也談到無水氨方案，已經賣給農民。我想我們以及美國、加拿大的其他供應商也都做了，而且一直都有或已準備好一個很好的秋季方案，這再次顯示農民的承接。

We will launch our spring program for ammonia post the application season this fall, and I expect that to be well updated. I think where you've seen some cutbacks in P&K is a reflection of the higher prices for those products.

我們會在今年秋季施用季結束後推出春季無水氨方案，我預期那會更新得很充分。我認為你看到磷、鉀（P&K）有些縮手，反映的是那些產品價格較高。

But I think nitrogen is a very good value, and it's been reflected in purchasing. I think the slowdown, if you're taking the whole Northern Hemisphere and the slowdown in Europe is a reflection of just those natural gas costs and European producers of nitrogen, those prices are much higher than in North America.

但我認為氮肥的性價比非常好，而採購情況也反映了這點。如果你把整個北半球都納入來看，歐洲的放緩反映的就是天然氣成本；歐洲氮肥生產商的成本與價格都遠高於北美。

And just as a follow-up, can you just expand a little bit more on where you see Chinese urea exports going? I mean it looks like this is the highest level in 10 years. But do you think this could be a new normal or just a one-off with helping India out effectively?

再追問一下，你能否再多談一點你對中國尿素出口走向的看法？看起來這是近10年來的最高水準。但你認為這可能成為新的常態，還是只是一次性的情況，等於是在有效地協助印度？

There are two Chinas. There's the prilled urea producers and the granular urea producers. What has helped stabilize the market in India and Southeast Asia has been the prilled supply, which is generally not demanded in first-tier, first world markets like South America or the United States or Europe.

有兩個中國。一個是噴霧造粒（prilled）尿素的生產商，另一個是顆粒（granular）尿素的生產商。有助於穩定印度與東南亞市場的，是噴霧造粒尿素的供應；而這類產品通常不被南美、或美國、或歐洲等一線、已開發市場所需求。

And so if you extract the prilled supply out, I would say the granular supply out of China has probably given a balanced market at this point. So Chinese -- the export authorizations now total almost 9 million tons.

因此，如果把噴霧造粒的供應剔除，我會說中國的顆粒尿素供應到目前為止大概讓市場達到平衡。所以中國——目前出口核准量合計已接近900萬噸。

So it is higher. Historically, last year was just a little under 5 million tons. But again, on a strange year with the limits out of the Middle East, it would -- it made sense for China to open up a little bit more. But it is consistent with, I think, what China has focused on is their own food security and food production and supply of fertilizers to their farmers on an economic basis. And so I think that's the first focus for China and then excess has been exported, whether that's next year, 6 million, 7 million, 8 million, I won't project at this point.

所以確實更高。歷史上，去年只有略低於500萬噸。但同樣地，在這樣一個不尋常的年度、且中東供應受限的情況下——中國稍微多開放一些是合理的。不過我認為這也符合中國一直以來的重點：以經濟可行的方式，確保自身的糧食安全與糧食生產，並向農民供應肥料。因此我認為中國的第一優先是這個，之後才把多餘的量拿去出口；至於明年是600萬、700萬、800萬噸，我目前不做預測。

Yes. I think the other thing with China, you said it's their highest export in over 10 years. It would also require them to have their highest asset utilization over a decade. So I'm not so certain some of the 8 million to 9 million tons of export that Bert was talking about there don't move a little bit into early part of the next calendar year as well.

是的。我認為關於中國還有另一點：你提到這是他們10多年來最高的出口量。這也意味著他們必須達到10多年來最高的資產利用率。所以我不太確定Bert剛才提到的800萬到900萬噸出口量，是否有一部分也會稍微延後到下一個曆年的年初出貨。

And that's where maybe that bumps up against some of the domestic food supply constraints that they're looking at doing there. So a lot to keep our eye on with that. But it is -- it would be quite a bit for them to export before the end of the year here.

而這可能就會與他們正在關注的國內糧食供應限制產生碰撞。所以這方面有很多值得我們持續關注的地方。但要他們在今年年底前就出口這麼多——確實會是相當大的量。

Joel Jackson, BMO Capital Markets.

Joel Jackson，BMO資本市場。

I just want to get an update on Yazoo. And would you expect the level of insurance inflow from Yazoo to be similar in Q4 and Q1, let's say, as Q3 levels? That's the first question.

我想了解一下Yazoo的最新情況。另外，你們預期來自Yazoo的保險理賠入帳金額，在第四季與第一季（比如說）會與第三季的水準相近嗎？這是第一個問題。

Yes. So I'll let the numbers in the insurance part go to Andrew. But just on an overall update with Yazoo, our expectations are still that towards the end of the first half of next year that we will be starting up components of that plant. As you recall, we've idled the ammonia, the nitric acid and the AN plants there as we rebuild the AN supply.

好的。那保險部分的數字我先交給Andrew回答。但就Yazoo整體進度更新而言，我們的預期仍是：在明年上半年接近尾聲時，我們將開始啟動該廠的部分單元。如你所記得的，我們在那裡已將氨、硝酸以及AN（硝酸銨）裝置停工，以便重建AN供應。

Additionally, we're looking at as part of that reconfiguration is building out some of the logistics and distribution attributes of the site to make it more flexible than what it's been in the past being able to serve more customers. So we're excited about that plant getting back in operation in the first half of next year. But I'll turn it over to Andrew. He'll talk through a little bit more of the timing of insurance payments.

此外，作為這次重新配置的一部分，我們也在評估擴建該基地的一些物流與配送能力，使其比過去更具彈性，能夠服務更多客戶。因此我們對該廠在明年上半年恢復運轉感到振奮。接下來我把時間交給Andrew。他會再多談一些保險理賠付款時點。

Yes, Joel. So the way that I would think about it is, I would take a longer view. I think when you look at both the capital build and the timing of when the cash payments will go out, at the end of this year and into next year relative to the insurance pieces, what we expect is that you are going to offset.

好的，Joel。我建議用更長期的角度來看。我認為當你同時看資本重建支出，以及相對於保險項目在今年底到明年期間現金支付的時點，我們的預期是兩者會互相抵銷。

So if you take a longer-term view and you, kind of, go through once we're complete with the rebuild and this is all wrapped up, we see that the two will largely offset. We're not trying to give guidance on what it's going to look like quarter-over-quarter. So -- but I would say feel assured that, that longer-term view will largely offset.

所以如果你用長期視角，並且在我們完成重建、整件事都告一段落後回頭看，我們認為兩者在很大程度上會互相抵銷。我們不打算提供逐季（quarter-over-quarter）的指引，說它會長什麼樣子。不過我會說，你可以放心：從長期來看，兩者大致會互相抵銷。

Okay. And then you're just a little bit of months into your partners into construction at Blue Point. Any observations or thoughts you want to share what you've learned so far about the project, things you're thinking about changing or any observations?

了解。再來，你們與合作夥伴在Blue Point的施工才進行了幾個月。到目前為止，對這個專案有沒有什麼觀察或想法可以分享——例如你們學到了什麼、正在考慮調整哪些事情，或任何觀察？

Well, I would say we're in very early days related to that. But we have hit some significant milestones with receiving the permits that were required. There's significant civil work that's ongoing down there. Our long lead items have been ordered, and we're looking to begin our module work at the beginning part of next year.

我會說我們目前仍在非常早期的階段。但我們已達成一些重要里程碑，包括取得所需的許可證。目前現場正在進行大量土建工程。長交期設備已經下單，我們預計在明年年初開始模組化施工。

I would say the learning is that I think we are fortunate we made the decision when we did on a timing basis. So we -- if you think about it, we made FID 18 months ago, but about six months prior to that, we had put in orders on electrical gear given we knew that to get in queue there was important. So we're really two years ahead on some of our ordering of equipment.

我想我們的心得是：很慶幸我們在當時就做了那個決策，從時點上來看是對的。如果你回想一下，我們在18個月前做出FID（最終投資決策），但在那之前大約6個月，我們就已經針對電氣設備下單，因為我們知道要排進供應隊列很重要。所以在某些設備的採購上，我們其實已經提前了將近兩年。

And I would say if you were to announce a project today, and look to build a world-class plant of something as similar to that, no matter where it is globally, you probably would have an extension of the duration by 12 to 18 months in completion of that.

我會說，如果你今天才宣布一個專案，並打算建造一座同等級的世界級工廠，不管在全球哪裡，你很可能都會在完工時程上延長12到18個月。

So I think the one thing that we're happy that we made was the decision when we did and also the preordering of some of that critical equipment prior to the start. Operator, we can move to the next?

所以我認為我們很高興的一點是：我們在當時就做了決策，也在開工前預先訂購了一些關鍵設備。接線員，我們可以進到下一位嗎？

Lucas Beaumont, UBS.

Lucas Beaumont，瑞銀（UBS）。

I just wanted to ask about the controllable non-gas costs. So they have been running up about $200 million year-to-date year-on-year, which is about a 12% increase. So I mean it's been choppy quarter-to-quarter that has generally been higher. Could you just kind of talk us through the drivers there and how you see that evolving into the fourth quarter and into next year?

我想問一下可控的非天然氣成本。所以今年迄今（year-to-date）相較去年同期大約增加了2億美元，約為12%的增幅。也就是說，逐季表現有些波動，但整體而言普遍偏高。你能否帶我們梳理一下背後的驅動因素，以及你們如何看待第四季與明年的走勢？

Lucas, this is Andrew. Let me kind of talk you through Q3 because I think what you'll see in Q3 was also consistent with Q2, and now I'll give you some context here. So if you look at Q3, our cost of sales were up 11%. If you tease out the impact of volume, it was up about 4%. You probably saw within the quarter, we had some gas favorability.

Lucas，我是Andrew。我先帶你回顧一下第三季，因為我想你會看到第三季的情況也與第二季一致；我再提供一些背景。如果看第三季，我們的銷貨成本（cost of sales）上升了11%。如果把銷量的影響拆開，則大約上升了4%。你可能也注意到，在該季度我們在天然氣方面有一些有利因素。

But I know what you're focused on is kind of what are some of those offsets. There were really three things that were coming through there, and I'll kind of put them in materiality order. There's a couple of ones I want you to make connections on. So the biggest impact that we saw coming through was higher cost of purchased ammonia and this is largely in support of our UK operations.

但我知道你關注的是：有哪些項目在抵銷、或造成變動。主要有三個因素在反映出來，我會按影響程度由大到小說明。其中有幾點我希望你能把脈絡連起來。我們看到的最大影響是外購氨成本上升，而這主要是為了支援我們在英國的營運。

Just keep in mind, we benefit from higher ammonia selling prices. And so there's kind of an overall -- when you think about the overall P&L, that flows through our fixed costs, but it's not necessarily structurally disadvantageous to us in aggregate.

請記住，我們會受惠於較高的氨銷售價格。因此，從整體損益表來看，這會反映在我們的固定成本上，但就總體而言，未必在結構上對我們不利。

The second piece is fixed cost absorption. We do have puts and takes between timing of turnarounds of this year versus last year. But the net of what's coming through is the Yazoo City rebuild that we're doing and the fixed cost absorption coming through.

第二部分是固定成本吸收。今年與去年在歲修時點上確實有一些此消彼長的影響。但整體反映出來的，主要是我們正在進行的 Yazoo City 重建，以及隨之而來的固定成本吸收。

The other connection I want to make there is, I know it would be intuitive potentially to say, I'm going to tease out the impact of the insurance costs and just look at the fixed costs, but those two need to ride in tandem because that insurance recovery is in part to offset those higher fixed costs we're actually seeing coming through.

我想再補充一個關聯：我知道直覺上可能會想把保險成本的影響拆出來，只看固定成本，但這兩者需要同步看待，因為保險理賠回收在某種程度上就是用來抵銷我們實際看到的較高固定成本。

And so I would kind of think about those two things together. And then the third bucket, which is probably the smallest of the three, but it does have an impact is distribution and logistics. And there's two things happening within that.

所以我會把這兩件事放在一起思考。第三個類別，可能是三者中最小的，但確實也有影響的是配送與物流。而這裡面有兩件事正在發生。

One, you do have some mode mix, where we're seeing some shifting from more -- shifting from barge into rail. That's really a function of our order book, and we're really focused on our netback. But you do see some of those costs coming through from a mix standpoint. But you do see that's a little bit more sticky as you do see increases in rail itself and some fuel surcharges.

第一，你確實會看到一些運輸方式組合的變化，我們看到部分從駁船轉向鐵路。這主要取決於我們的訂單結構，而我們非常專注於淨回收（netback）。但從組合角度來看，你確實會看到部分成本反映出來。而且這些成本也比較黏著，因為鐵路本身的費用上升，以及一些燃油附加費的增加。

But I think when you tease that out, what we've been seeing for the last couple of quarters, it's largely been the purchased ammonia and Yazoo City fixed costs flowing through has been the primary driver that you've been seeing come through. Hopefully, that helps.

但我認為把這些因素拆開來看，我們過去幾個季度看到的，主要驅動因素大多是外購氨，以及 Yazoo City 的固定成本逐步反映出來。希望這樣有幫助。

Great. And then you said -- you mentioned that you've sort of seen Middle East and urea exports tracking at about half the levels they were previously sort of coming out of the region since the conflict began. How has that been trending over time? Are you -- is that improving? Is it slowing? Is it stable? And how do you, kind of, see the outlook there short of us getting a full resumption in open trade?

很好。另外你提到，你們看到中東與尿素出口量，自衝突開始以來，從該地區流出的水準大約只有先前的一半。這個趨勢隨時間如何變化？是在改善嗎？是在放緩嗎？還是維持穩定？在沒有全面恢復自由貿易的情況下，你們如何看待那邊的短期展望？

So the Middle East has been a question of fairly opaque at first when hostilities began in late February and March, there are vessels that were tracked behind, unloaded or empty as well as loaded. That delayed months to get out. So there was a period of time when it kind of opened up and things moved in May and June and then obviously froze up again.

中東一開始在二月底、三月敵對行動爆發時相當不透明；有些船舶被追蹤到滯留在後方，包含已卸貨或空船，以及載貨船。這些延誤花了好幾個月才離開。所以曾有一段時間在五月、六月似乎稍微開放、貨物流動起來，但很明顯之後又再度凍結。

And there's been a lot of vessels that have moved with transponders turned off. And so it's kind of difficult to track those. But outside of Oman, we're probably considering 500,000 to 550,000 tons per month has been exiting the Gulf and then throwing Oman on top of that because it sits outside the Gulf, you're probably around 800,000 tons out of 1.5 million to 1.7 million normally per month. Iran has been moving some tons but less than their previous capacities. And so when you consider that, you're probably losing close to 700,000 to 1 million tons per month out of the Gulf consistently.

而且有很多船舶是關閉應答器（transponder）航行。因此追蹤起來相當困難。但若不含阿曼（Oman），我們估計每月大約有 50 萬到 55 萬噸離開波斯灣；再把位於波斯灣外的阿曼加上去，正常每月約 150 萬到 170 萬噸的水準下，目前大概只有約 80 萬噸。伊朗也有出一些量，但低於其先前的產能水準。因此綜合來看，你可能持續每月從波斯灣少了接近 70 萬到 100 萬噸。

How quickly that recovers is another question because of the risks and costs of going in and out of the Gulf today, it will take a long time not only to untangle what's there, but for vessels to reposition themselves to load and just the costs associated with freight. So if hostilities were to end tomorrow, I would think it would take months to get back to what is a normal volume.

至於恢復速度，則是另一個問題：由於目前進出波斯灣的風險與成本都很高，不僅要花很長時間理清現有的狀況，船舶也需要重新調度到位以便裝貨，還有運費相關的成本。所以即便明天敵對行動就結束，我認為也需要好幾個月才能回到正常的出貨量。

And then you've got to consider what -- which of those plants have not -- are inoperable or operating at a suboptimal rate due to some activities with drones or with inattention or maintenance. So I think those two or three things combined would say you're going to be four to six months if everything ended today.

此外你還得考慮哪些工廠因為無人機活動、疏於照料或維修等因素而停擺，或只能以非最佳的負荷率運轉。所以我認為這兩三個因素加總起來，如果今天一切都結束，可能也要四到六個月。

Edlain Rodriguez, Mizuho.

Edlain Rodriguez，瑞穗（Mizuho）。

Just a philosophical question. So when you look at the overall ag complex, corn prices have been down sharply since the last WASDE report, whether it gets revised down or not next week, who knows? So farmers' income is under pressure. Like what do you think this is doing to farmers' psychology and their willingness to pay higher prices for crop inputs?

我有個偏哲學性的問題。當你看整體農業大宗商品（ag complex），自上次 WASDE 報告以來，玉米價格大幅下跌；下週是否會再下修，誰也說不準。因此農民收入正承受壓力。你認為這會如何影響農民的心理，以及他們願意為作物投入品支付更高價格的意願？

Well, you have to start with the premise, that's the business that they're in is to plant the crop, harvest a crop.

嗯，你得先從一個前提出發：他們所從事的生意，就是種植作物、收成作物。

Farmers have to plant, yes.

農民必須種植，是的。

And so as coming from a farm family and with a lot of friends growing up in Kansas, that's just what you do. Now relative to cost, there has been a lot of money from the federal government in the three tranches to support farm income.

所以以我出身農家、在堪薩斯長大也有很多朋友務農的經驗來看，這就是你會做的事。至於成本面，聯邦政府已透過三個批次的補助來支持農民收入，投入了大量資金。

And then from my earlier comment about the crop -- kind of the crop -- it's called the crop guarantee or revenue guarantee program with a minimum price set at $4.75 for harvest. That's much more attractive than where cash is today.

另外回到我先前提到的作物——算是作物——它叫作作物保證或收入保證計畫（crop guarantee or revenue guarantee program），其中收成的最低價格設定在每蒲式耳 4.75 美元。這比目前現金市場價格要有吸引力得多。

So you have another kind of form of support, but I do see with what's going on around the world, those farmers who have the ability to inventory or store their crops through a cycle, probably some good opportunities in the forward market relative to the impact of El Nino around the world, the impact of lower nutrient levels utilized for the crop that's being put in the ground and the stocks use ratios that are in the market relative to demand being strong with ethanol and protein production. So we've got some positives in line to support crop prices, which can therefore, support farmer income and that's a knock on wood.

所以你還有另一種形式的支撐；但我確實看到，考量全球正在發生的事情，那些有能力在一個循環中持有庫存或儲存作物的農民，在遠期市場上可能有一些不錯的機會，這與全球聖嬰現象（El Nino）的影響、施用於播種作物的養分用量下降的影響，以及在乙醇與蛋白質生產帶動需求強勁的情況下，市場的庫存使用比（stocks-to-use ratios）有關。因此我們有一些正面因素可望支撐作物價格，進而支撐農民收入——這也只能說希望如此。

Yes. And I would just say from CF's perspective, the area that we focus on is providing as much supply as we can globally by our production, and that's operating our sites like we have at a utilization rate at 97%, making consistent investments over the year into those assets.

是的。而我也想補充，從 CF 的角度來看，我們聚焦的領域是：透過自身生產，盡可能在全球提供更多供給；也就是讓我們的廠區以 97% 的產能利用率運轉，並在一年中持續對這些資產進行投資。

So they're safe and have that high reliability that we can serve the farmer and then increasing production, whether it be through debottlenecks at our plants or even our distribution network in order to make certain that we can get the product to the farmer at the lowest cost and move it through the system when they need it for application. So our whole focus is really on the supply side of the S&D balance here in order to assist our end customer, the farmer.

如此一來，它們能夠安全運作並維持高可靠度，讓我們可以服務農民；同時提升產量，不論是透過工廠的去瓶頸（debottlenecks），或甚至是我們的配送網路，以確保我們能以最低成本把產品送到農民手上，並在他們需要施用時把產品順利在系統中流轉。所以我們的整體重點，確實是放在供需平衡中的供給端，以協助我們的終端客戶——農民。

Ben Theurer, Barclays.

Ben Theurer，巴克萊。

A lot being talked about already on the supply side and obviously, the ups and downs here, but wanted to dig into one of the demand drivers, particularly Brazil and what you're expecting here for the next, call it, one to two quarters, trending behind on a year-to-date basis in terms of imports, but you still have, at least based on your presentation, a pretty sizable uptick into the fourth quarter.

供給端已經談了很多，顯然這裡也有起起落落，但我想深入探討其中一個需求驅動因素，特別是巴西，以及你們對未來一到兩個季度的預期。今年迄今在進口方面的趨勢落後，但至少根據你們的簡報，第四季仍有相當可觀的上升幅度。

So given the volatility of Brazilian politics, the BRL, the corn price and so on as well as soybean prices. How confident are you about the level of potential uptake for urea in Brazil? That would be my first question.

因此，考量巴西政治、巴西雷亞爾（BRL）、玉米價格等以及大豆價格的波動。你們對巴西尿素潛在吸收量的水準有多大信心？這是我的第一個問題。

Yes, I think with the rally in Q3 that we saw in corn, if hedging had taken place at the $5 level was pretty attractive for second crop corn in Mato Grosso. So Safrinha gets planted generally late January through early March.

是的，我認為就我們在第三季看到的玉米反彈而言，如果在 5 美元的水準進行避險，對馬托格羅索州的第二季玉米（Safrinha）來說相當有吸引力。因此 Safrinha 通常在 1 月下旬到 3 月上旬播種。

But we are seeing -- it is a credit constrained issue with a lot of kind of carrying costs that the suppliers of nutrients have to have long-dated credit and getting repaid. That has delayed purchasing from the importers, which has delayed sales to the farmers. And so our estimates today is that for urea, Brazil would be down probably 1 million tons compared to 2025.

但我們看到——這是一個信貸受限的問題，因為養分供應商必須承擔許多類似持有成本，需要較長天期的信用並等待回款。這使進口商的採購延後，進而延後對農民的銷售。因此，我們目前的估計是，就尿素而言，巴西相較於 2025 年可能會減少約 100 萬噸。

And overall, with NPK, probably down 7 million to 9 million tons of total fertilizer demand cut due to an inability to pay for it in terms of being competitive and again, these credit issues. But I think one of the overhangs of Brazil today is this super El Nino that all the weather prognosticators are predicting is the impact when it's dry, and you're planting at the tail end of the rainy season and does that come really impact yields, which would be a very difficult move for Brazilian farmer moving forward.

整體而言，就 NPK 而言，總肥料需求可能會減少 700 萬到 900 萬噸，原因在於無力支付、缺乏競爭力，以及同樣的信貸問題。但我認為巴西目前的一個壓力來源是，所有氣象預測者都在預測這個「超級聖嬰」：當天氣乾燥、你又在雨季尾聲播種時，對產量的影響會是什麼；若真的衝擊產量，對巴西農民未來將是非常艱難的局面。

Okay. And then my follow-up question, maybe help us understand with this very big spread on gas prices and European being in the high 20s, almost $30 MMBtu, obviously completely out of money where the prices are. So why has that not driven higher prices globally just yet?

好的。那我的追問是，或許請幫我們理解：天然氣價格的價差非常大，歐洲在 20 多美元、接近 30 美元/百萬英熱單位（MMBtu），顯然以目前的價格水準來看完全不划算。那為什麼這還沒有推動全球價格立刻走高？

Is it just because the demand is not there? Is it because of the supply from China? What is holding back a better pricing just given what the cost for the last producer, so to speak is versus what the cost for you guys is that has been very, very stable on a nine-month basis?

是因為需求不在嗎？是因為中國的供給嗎？在你所謂的「最後一個生產者」的成本，相對於你們的成本（過去九個月非常、非常穩定）之下，究竟是什麼在壓抑更好的定價？

I think you have seen a supply contraction with our estimates of 35% of European production is either shut down or curtailed and the impact then on ammonia, you've seen $100, $200 rally in ammonia prices and seeing North African as well as North America and ammonia moving towards Europe to supply those producers that can import ammonia and produce CAN or AN or UAN and so I think with what the supply constraint in Europe relative to the total global supply is lower.

我認為你已經看到供給收縮；依我們估計，歐洲產能有 35% 已停產或減產。其對氨的影響是，你已看到氨價上漲 100 到 200 美元，並看到北非以及北美的氨流向歐洲，去供應那些能進口氨並生產 CAN、AN 或 UAN 的生產商；因此我認為，歐洲的供給限制相對於全球總供給的占比其實較低。

And I think you'll be seeing some deferred purchasing around the world that is also probably not impacted. Supply hasn't had to move into those positions yet. So when you combine demand deferral globally with prompt demand in Europe, I think that's why we're not escalating in price to the level that probably you would expect.

而且我認為你會看到全球也有一些延後採購，這可能也尚未受到影響。供給端還不需要被迫移動到那些位置。因此，當你把全球需求延後與歐洲的即期需求結合起來，我想這就是為什麼價格沒有如你可能預期的那樣上升到那個水準。

David Symonds, BNP Paribas.

David Symonds，法國巴黎銀行（BNP Paribas）。

Just a question on the announcement of some of these modular ammonia plants coming internally in the US. Do you have any view on where those guys might land on the cost curve and whether it impacts distribution margins or if it's just a move of removal of imports in favor of domestic production?

想請教一下關於美國內部宣布的一些模組化氨工廠即將上線。你們是否對這些業者可能落在成本曲線的哪個位置有看法？以及這是否會影響通路/分銷利潤率，或只是以國內生產取代進口？

Some of these discussions that are coming through are part of the FIELDS program that the USDA had with expanding production that the top four producers were not eligible to participate in. But a lot of those are very, very small.

目前出現的一些討論，是 USDA 的 FIELDS 計畫的一部分，該計畫旨在擴大產量，而前四大生產商不符合參與資格。但其中很多規模都非常、非常小。

And you sort of question on scale, their efficiency and really their capital cost per ton that could happen. And then on some of the other announcements related to FIELDS you're looking at some pretty small debottlenecks. Things that we look at through our network all the time to increase efficiency.

你會對其規模、效率，以及可能發生的每噸資本成本提出疑問。另外，關於一些與 FIELDS 相關的其他公告，你看到的是一些相當小的去瓶頸（debottleneck）措施。這些是我們透過自身網路一直在做、用來提升效率的事情。

And obviously, we believe given our technical expertise, we're going to do that on a lower cost per ton than anybody else. But in the end, those announcements, you're looking at sizes that are in the 50,000 to 150,000 ton ranking here where our Blue Point at minimum is going to be 1.5 million tons.

而且顯然，憑藉我們的技術專長，我們相信我們能以比任何人都更低的每噸成本做到這點。但歸根結底，這些公告的規模大概在 5 萬到 15 萬噸的量級；而我們的 Blue Point 最低將是 150 萬噸。

So you're kind of just nipping around the edges from what it's going to do from the overall supply standpoint. And I think that just really touches why our view, both near, mid and long term is so constructive on nitrogen.

所以從整體供給的角度來看，這些只是邊邊角角的小幅調整。我認為這也正好說明了為什麼我們對氮肥在短期、中期與長期的看法都相當正面。

We're seeing demand, as Bert said, yes, there's some deferral, but it directly affects yield with the lack of nitrogen. So demand continues to grow, but we've seen not only what's happening with geopolitical, but European shutdowns occur, and then there's a lack of new supply being bid into the market and then add on top of that, as I mentioned earlier, the duration to start up a new plant is longer.

我們看到需求——如 Bert 所說，是的，確實有一些延後，但缺乏氮肥會直接影響產量。因此需求持續成長；但我們不僅看到地緣政治的影響，也看到歐洲停產，且缺乏新的供給被競標進入市場；再加上我先前提到的，新工廠啟動所需時間更長。

So all of this even though we hear these announcements of these smallers are not moving the needle to the tightness we're seeing in the global S&D balance not only this year but over the next several years.

因此，儘管我們聽到這些較小規模的公告，它們並沒有改變我們在全球供需（S&D）平衡中看到的緊俏程度——不僅是今年，未來幾年也是如此。

Vincent Andrews, Morgan Stanley.

Vincent Andrews，摩根士丹利。

I want to come back to Yazoo for a moment. At this point, when you're talking about first half of '27. Does that mean at some point the complex will restart then? Or does that mean you think the ramp of the restart will be completed by the end of the first half. So any color you could provide on that would be helpful.

我想回到 Yazoo 談一下。在目前這個時間點，當你們談到 2027 年上半年時，這是否表示該綜合設施會在某個時間點重啟？或者是表示你們認為重啟的爬坡將在上半年末完成？如果你能提供一些說明會很有幫助。

Yes, Vincent, that's a good question. Really, we're seeing that as the ramp begin at that particular time, we'll maybe even slightly earlier than that as we start to bring up the ammonia plant, but then may take it down just given the amount of storage capacity.

是的，Vincent，這是個好問題。我們的看法是，那個時間點會開始進入爬坡期；甚至可能會稍早一些，因為我們會開始把氨工廠拉升，但考量儲存容量的限制，之後也可能會再把它降下來。

But obviously, this plant will have been down for basically about 1.5 years. So our intention is in the first half of the year, we're ramping it up, doing it safely, making certain that we have -- we're able to -- when the AN side is completely ready to go that we can move into AN production in the second half of the year.

但顯然，這座工廠基本上已停了大約 1.5 年。因此我們的意圖是在上半年把它逐步拉升、確保安全運轉，並確保我們能夠——當 AN 端完全準備就緒時——在下半年轉入 AN 生產。

In addition to that, also as we're ramping it up, you'd be looking at some of the construction on that logistics flexibility that we're looking at, whether that be through DEF loadout, ammonia loadout, et cetera, would be part of that.

此外，在我們爬坡的同時，你也會看到我們在建置我們所評估的物流彈性，例如 DEF 裝載、氨裝載等等，這些都會是其中的一部分。

Okay. And then for Bert, another question on China is slightly different, though. We saw -- I think it was last week, they're starting to put quotas on ammonium sulfate exports. So obviously, urea is up more than we all thought, but AS, which had been something that they let, kind of, run wild the last few years. Now they seem to be holding back on that. And any thoughts on what's going on there?

好的。接著針對Bert，另一個關於中國的問題稍微有點不同。我們看到——我想是上週——他們開始對硫酸銨出口設定配額。所以很明顯，尿素漲得比我們大家原先想的還多，但硫酸銨（AS）在過去幾年一直是他們某種程度上放任其自由發展的品項。現在看起來他們似乎在收緊。你對那邊正在發生什麼有什麼看法嗎？

That was a surprise. I think the -- on top of the amazing amount of ammonium sulfate that has gone out in the world, over 20 million tons and it's just been kind of a cheap replacement for urea, but I think it's related to sulfur and the cost of sulfur, the cost of production and the need for sulfuric acid for other applications and so that was just a tightening in a restriction of the ammonium sulfate to be produced or exported.

那確實出乎意料。我認為——除了全球已經流出驚人數量的硫酸銨之外，超過2,000萬噸，而且它一直算是尿素的便宜替代品——但我想這與硫以及硫的成本有關：硫的成本、製造成本，以及其他用途對硫酸的需求，所以這就是對硫酸銨生產或出口的限制收緊。

Chris Parkinson, Wolfe Research.

Chris Parkinson，Wolfe Research。

Ever since summer fill, you've undergone, for all intents and purposes, looks like very solid demand through the fall in terms of reactions to that program. And you've seen a continuation of that in the price on a quarter-on-quarter basis. How are you thinking about building order books in the spring and ultimately maxing your network on a net unit basis based on where prices reside at least today.

自從夏季補庫（summer fill）以來，就各方面而言，看起來你們在整個秋季都維持了非常強勁的需求，反映在市場對該方案的反應上。而且你們也看到價格在季對季的基礎上持續走高。你們如何思考春季的接單簿（order book）建立，以及最終在淨單位（net unit）基礎上把你們的網路產能拉到滿載，尤其是以至少今天的價格水準來看？

When you look at the summer fill program, Mike and the team have done a great job putting that out in early July, and the roll up was very fast. We took over probably 2 -- over 2 million tons of orders and have been shipping against that. But -- and then in parallel, building the book through Q4 and now we're sold into Q1.

回頭看夏季補庫方案，Mike和團隊在7月初就推出，做得非常好，而且整體彙總（roll up）速度非常快。我們大概拿到了超過200萬噸的訂單，並且一直在依此出貨。不過——同時，我們也在第四季持續建立接單簿，而現在我們第一季的量也已經賣出去了。

And the pricing on that was, we started in the high like $280, $290 and you saw that reflected in the positive price of $322 as an average price for Q3, and that has continued to escalate. One is a reflection of just the need for nitrogen. Two is a reflection of the global market and kind of just, I think, a migration to UAN.

至於那部分的定價，我們一開始是在280多到290多美元的高檔區間，你也看到這反映在第三季平均價格322美元的正向價格表現上，而且之後還持續攀升。第一，這反映了市場對氮肥的需求。第二，這反映了全球市場的狀況，以及我認為某種程度上向UAN（尿素-硝酸銨溶液）的轉移。

Parallel to that, we've exported a lot less of UAN and have kept a lot more one of our decision earlier in the year to keep tons for the North American farmer or the American farmer. And as we position for spring, I think we always compare between the nitrogen products and try to stay in relation, but we're seeing a very positive spring demand, I think coming again back to the corn acres that are going to be planted and applied as well as what we expect to have a better corn price for spring.

與此同時，我們出口的UAN少了很多，保留了更多——這是我們今年稍早做出的決策之一，把貨量留給北美農民或美國農民。而在我們為春季做布局時，我想我們一向會在各種氮肥產品之間做比較，並盡量維持相對關係；但我們看到春季需求非常正向，我認為這又回到將要種植的玉米面積，以及施用需求，還有我們預期春季玉米價格會更好。

And just a quick follow-up, perhaps a slightly longer-term question. But a couple of years ago, India, there were very brief talks about India trying to be independent on urea side, which has been anything bought over the last two years.

再追問一個，可能是稍微偏長期的問題。不過幾年前，印度曾有過非常短暫的討論，想在尿素端做到自給自足，而過去兩年他們幾乎什麼都在買。

And obviously have, I'd say, disappointed in production, obviously, at periodic times over that frame. How are you kind of thinking about that market over the longer term in terms of market growth versus perhaps US LNG contracts towards the end of this decade. Is that something where you're looking at it sustainably, let's say, in the high single millions in terms of the market, in terms of the import market?

而且很明顯，在那段期間他們的產量表現，我會說，在某些時點是令人失望的。就更長期而言，你們如何看待那個市場：市場成長性，對比可能在本十年末期的美國LNG（液化天然氣）合約？你們是否把它視為可持續地維持在「高個位數百萬噸」的規模——就進口市場而言？

Do you see that declining slightly? Do you see it growing? Just trying to get, kind of, a grasp on how you're viewing the longer-term supply-demand dynamic based on them.

你們覺得它會小幅下滑嗎？你們覺得它會成長嗎？只是想大致掌握一下，你們如何基於印度的情況來看更長期的供需動態。

Yes. So today, India is approaching 40 million tons of total consumption and production of around 30 and imports of around 10 million tons. So imports have ranged between 5 million to 10 million tons over the last several years. They have had a -- the Modi government has directed a Made in India program. They have built new plants.

是的。以今天來看，印度的總消費量接近4,000萬噸，產量大約3,000萬噸，進口約1,000萬噸。所以過去幾年，他們的進口量大約在500萬到1,000萬噸之間波動。他們——莫迪政府推動了「印度製造」計畫。他們也新建了一些工廠。

But those -- some of those that are gas supplied are expensive. So if you're paying the world price for natural gas today at $25 to $30 and you're competing against import urea, it makes much more economic sense to not operate those plants and import urea, especially from China, which is the cheapest source of -- and they're a big buyer of prilled urea.

但其中一些以天然氣供應的工廠成本很高。所以如果你今天以每單位25到30美元的全球天然氣價格在付費，同時又要與進口尿素競爭，那麼從經濟性來看，不開那些工廠、改為進口尿素更合理，尤其是從中國進口——中國是最便宜的來源——而且他們是粒狀尿素（prilled urea）的主要買家。

So I would look at it in that range of -- there is a new plant coming on in 2027, about 1 million-ton plant in India that is slated to come into production. So I would make that range or think about that range in that 6 million to 9 million tons into 2027. And if gas prices are expensive, it should be on the high side.

所以我會把它看在那個區間——印度在2027年會有一座新廠投產，約100萬噸級，預計將開始生產。因此我會把到2027年的進口量區間設定或思考在600萬到900萬噸之間。而如果天然氣價格偏貴，進口量就應該會落在區間的高端。

Matthew DeYoe, Bank of America.

Matthew DeYoe，美國銀行（Bank of America）。

Yes. How are you seeing ammonia demand for phosphates transpire? Obviously, the last six months, one direction, but we're starting to see some capacity come back. So what do you expect there? And how does -- how do you think about the circular reference for price of ammonia and perhaps some of the ability for the phosphate players to actually restart?

是的。你們怎麼看磷肥用氨（ammonia）需求的演變？很明顯，過去六個月是往一個方向走，但我們開始看到一些產能回來。所以你們對那邊有什麼預期？另外，你們如何看待氨價的循環性影響（circular reference），以及磷肥業者實際上重啟產能的能力？

Yes. It's been a difficult road for the phosphate producers because of sulfur and the price of sulfur elevating to over $1,000 a ton as an ammonia supplier, and we do supply some of the major producers and have very good relationships with them and both contractually and spot tons we sell and through conversations with them, we're expecting demand for ammonia to increase in 2027 based on two drivers.

是的。對磷肥生產商來說，這一路走來很艱難，因為硫以及硫價上升到每噸超過1,000美元；作為氨的供應商，我們確實供應一些主要生產商，並且與他們維持非常良好的關係，無論是合約量或現貨量我們都有銷售；透過與他們的對話，我們預期到2027年，磷肥端對氨的需求會在兩個驅動因素下增加。

One, we expect sulfur to come back in line, maybe not back to historical values yet, but trending that way as well as just overall demand for phosphates, which globally have been cut 20% or 30%. You've had under applications in all the major markets for phosphate and that, again, eventually will have a yield impact and then an ability then to pay for phosphate.

第一，我們預期硫價會回到較合理的水準，可能還不會回到歷史均值，但會朝那個方向走；第二是整體磷肥需求，全球已經被削減了20%到30%。在所有主要磷肥市場，你都看到施用不足，而這終究會影響單產，接著也會影響到支付磷肥成本的能力。

So we're constructive, I think, in 2027, probably more positive going into 2028 for ammonia demand from the phosphate producers.

所以我們對2027年持建設性看法；我認為進入2028年，磷肥生產商帶動的氨需求可能會更正面。

Salvator Tiano, KeyBanc Capital Markets.

Salvator Tiano，KeyBanc Capital Markets。

Yes. Firstly, you made a comment before some of the higher costs you incurred outside of gas were due to higher shipping costs, but you focus on the net back. And on that front, I wanted to understand a little bit with your Midwest corn belt ammonia operations.

是的。首先，你先前提到你們在天然氣以外承擔的一些較高成本，來自較高的運輸成本，但你們聚焦在淨回收（netback）。在這方面，我想更了解一下你們在美國中西部玉米帶的氨業務。

Can you talk to a little bit about what is -- what percent or what dollar amount of the spread between say NOLA ammonia price and Midwest is part of the cost of transportation and perhaps storage versus what's kind of the premium netback view as CF can get by having access to barges and storage network. And also, can you shed some light into what volume you ship to the corn belt kind of on an annual basis?

你能否談談，例如NOLA（紐奧良）氨價格與中西部之間的價差中，有多少比例或多少美元金額是運輸成本、以及可能的倉儲成本所構成；相對地，又有多少是CF因為能使用駁船與倉儲網路而取得的溢價、也就是淨回收（netback）觀點下的溢價？另外，你能否說明一下，你們每年大概向玉米帶運送多少量？

So how we look at ammonia through the Midwest and the terminal system. We have our terminal distribution that is principally supplied by the Sunoco pipeline that starts in NOLA at our Donaldsonville plant and then intersects and then splits off into Indiana and Iowa up through Nebraska. And we ship about 1 point -- total ammonia for corn applications or wheat would be about 1.3, 1.4 for CF. And so then we stair-step the costs, the most economically advantaged ton is shipped by the pipeline, and we maximize our volume through that.

因此，我們如何透過中西部與終端系統來看待氨的配置。我們的終端分銷主要由 Sunoco 管線供應；該管線從新奧爾良（NOLA）我們位於 Donaldsonville 的工廠起始，之後交會並分流，通往印第安納與愛荷華，再一路向北延伸至內布拉斯加。我們運送約 1 點——玉米施用或小麥用的氨總量，對 CF 而言大約是 1.3、1.4。接著我們以階梯式方式配置成本：最具經濟優勢的噸位透過管線運輸，並將該管線的運量最大化。

The next step is our barges, which we own and lease some and we move up to our river-served terminals and then some are served by truck that as we moved excess ammonia from maybe our Oklahoma system or extraneous tons from Courtright, Ontario into one of those facilities. That just balances it out. So that's your stair-stepping in costs from pipe to barge through truck and rail.

下一步是我們的駁船，我們自有並租賃一部分，將貨物運至河運可達的終端；另外也有一些由卡車服務——例如我們把可能來自奧克拉荷馬系統的多餘氨，或從安大略省 Courtright 調入的額外噸位，移轉到其中一個設施。這樣就能把供需平衡起來。因此，這就是你所說的成本階梯：從管線到駁船，再到卡車與鐵路。

And yes, costs were up a little bit. But as Andrew said earlier, a lot of that is a reflection of the increased volume that we moved and then we expect to receive as those tons go out and are applied the revenue and the margin from that, which is also higher than our export or our industrial gas-based business.

是的，成本確實小幅上升。但如 Andrew 先前所說，其中很大一部分反映的是我們移動的量增加；而且我們預期當這些噸位出貨並施用後，將帶來相應的營收與毛利，而這也高於我們的出口業務或以工業氣體為基礎的業務。

I think the real benefit is our unmatched distribution facility organization where we can keep all our plants running at high utilization rates, as we've shown year after year, and it's really because of the movements that Bert was mentioning from plant by plant to location by location to distribution facility by distribution facility that there's never any type of curtailment from our production network, given that our production network, it really dovetails directly into our distribution system.

我認為真正的好處在於我們無可匹敵的分銷設施組織，使我們能讓所有工廠維持高稼動率運轉——我們年復一年都證明了這點——而這確實是因為 Bert 所提到的各種調運：從工廠到工廠、從地點到地點、從分銷設施到分銷設施，因此在我們的生產網路上不會出現任何形式的減產；因為我們的生產網路與分銷系統是直接銜接、彼此契合的。

Perfect. And I wanted to ask also a little bit about low carbon ammonia. Can you refresh us firstly on where you stand with any sales commitments or volume commitments from Donaldsonville before, whether it's ammonia, urea and the premiums that we had first disclosed a year ago.

很好。我也想再問一下低碳氨。能否先幫我們更新一下：在 Donaldsonville 方面，你們目前在任何銷售承諾或量的承諾上進展如何——不論是氨、尿素，以及我們在一年前首次揭露的溢價情況。

And are you seeing any new markets gaining traction? It seems like there have been some ammonia-powered vessels now in the -- that have been manufactured? Are you seeing anything there or in the energy market incremental versus a few months ago?

另外，你們是否看到任何新市場正在取得進展？看起來現在已有一些以氨為燃料的船舶——已經被製造出來？在這方面或能源市場上，相較於幾個月前，你們是否看到任何增量需求？

Yes. So I'll start with the first part of your question, Bert's team has done just a fabulous job of month-by-month building the low-carbon book that we have, and we're starting to see significant volume move through that. What I would say is probably an average price, a little over $20 per ton. And that was primarily focused on ammonia. We now have our certifications that we're working through on UAN.

是的。我先回答你問題的第一部分：Bert 的團隊在逐月建立我們的低碳訂單簿方面做得非常出色，我們也開始看到可觀的量透過這個管道流動。我會說平均價格大概每噸略高於 20 美元。而這主要聚焦在氨。我們現在也正在推進 UAN 的認證。

So we're beginning to see UAN come through that, not only because of the sequestration we're doing with the CO2 on the ammonia production side, but also our abatement projects on our nitric acid plants that we're seeing at a couple of our plants as well.

因此，我們開始看到 UAN 也納入其中；不僅因為我們在氨生產端對 CO2 進行封存，也因為我們在硝酸廠的減排專案——在我們其中幾座工廠也正在看到成效。

So that's a market that we just continue to see as really upside opportunity that once again, just demonstrates the differentiation between our network and others in our space and really the leadership that we're doing through the low-carbon network.

所以這個市場我們持續視為真正的上行機會；同樣地，它也再次展現了我們的網路相較於同業的差異化，以及我們透過低碳網路所展現的領導地位。

So we continue to build that book. Our expectation is next year with CBAM and some of the pending details on certification process getting worked out, we'll see that expand quite a bit more.

因此我們持續擴充這個訂單簿。我們預期明年隨著 CBAM，以及認證流程的一些待定細節逐步釐清，我們將看到它大幅擴張。

Mazahir Mammadli, Rothschild & Company.

Mazahir Mammadli，Rothschild & Company。

Just a question on sort of high-level ag fundamentals. I'm curious to hear your opinion on the current crop price environment, do you think the current new crop futures reflect the reality on the ground in terms of what the yields could be -- could turn out for corn and other important crops.

我有一個關於農業基本面（較高層次）的問題。我想聽聽你對目前作物價格環境的看法：你認為目前新作期貨價格是否反映了地面實況——就玉米與其他重要作物而言，單產最終可能會如何。

Regarding yield, we're almost an information taker as well. We do have our channel checks and different farmers we talk to. I am surprised by some of the farm yields or corn yields I'm hearing about in the northern tier, like in North Dakota on dry land as well as the irrigated performance in Nebraska and Kansas. But overall, I was surprised on the USDA's revision compared to Pro Farmer and some of the other information that came out.

就單產而言，我們幾乎也只是資訊的接受者。我們確實有做通路查核，也會與不同農民交流。我對我聽到的一些農場或玉米單產感到驚訝，尤其是在北部地帶，例如北達科他州的旱地，以及內布拉斯加與堪薩斯的灌溉表現。但整體而言，我對 USDA 的修正幅度感到意外，因為它與 Pro Farmer 以及其他資訊來源的結果相比有所不同。

So whether we move from 181 average yield to 183, which is what's projected. But taking a step back and going from a global perspective, I do see a challenged market, again, weather-related nutrient, lack of nutrient related in South America, specific to Mato Grosso, is a potential for yield cuts there. I think Argentina is expected to have adequate rains and performance. So when you take a step back on where we are on demand, I would hope to see corn value start to rally as we get into 2027.

也就是說，我們是否會從平均單產 181 移到 183（這是目前的預測）。但退一步、從全球角度來看，我確實看到市場面臨挑戰；同樣地，南美因天氣因素導致的養分不足——特別是在馬托格羅索（Mato Grosso）——可能造成那裡的單產下修。我認為阿根廷預期會有足夠的降雨與表現。因此，當你退一步看需求所處的位置，我希望隨著我們進入 2027 年，玉米價值能開始反彈走強。

Ladies and gentlemen, that is all the time we have for questions for today. I would like to turn the call back to Martin Jarosick for closing remarks.

各位女士先生，今天的提問時間就到這裡。我想把電話交回給 Martin Jarosick 作結語。

Thanks, everyone, for joining us today and we look forward to seeing you at upcoming conferences.

感謝各位今天加入我們，也期待在接下來的會議上與各位見面。

The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.

本次會議到此結束。感謝各位參加今天的簡報。您現在可以掛線。