Peabody Energy Corp (BTU) 2024 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good day, and welcome to the Peabody Energy third quarter 2024 conference call. (Operator Instructions) Please note, this event is being recorded.

美好的一天，歡迎參加 Peabody Energy 2024 年第三季電話會議。（操作員說明）請注意，正在記錄此事件。

I would now like to turn the conference over to Karla Kimrey, Vice President, Investor Relations and Communications. Please go ahead.

我現在想將會議交給投資者關係與傳播副總裁卡拉金瑞 (Karla Kimrey)。請繼續。

Good morning, and thanks for joining Peabody's earnings call for the third quarter of 2024. With me today are President and CEO, Jim Grech; CFO, Mark Spurbeck; and our Chief Marketing Officer, Malcolm Roberts.

早安，感謝您參加 Peabody 2024 年第三季的財報電話會議。今天與我在一起的有總裁兼執行長 Jim Grech；財務長馬克‧斯珀貝克；以及我們的首席行銷長馬爾科姆·羅伯茨。

Within the earnings release, you will find our statement on forward-looking information as well as a reconciliation of non-GAAP financial measures. We encourage you to consider the risk factors referenced there, along with our public filings with the SEC.

在收益報告中，您將找到我們關於前瞻性資訊的聲明以及非公認會計準則財務指標的調整表。我們鼓勵您考慮其中提到的風險因素以及我們向 SEC 提交的公開文件。

I'll now turn the call over to Jim.

我現在將把電話轉給吉姆。

Thanks, Karla, and good morning, everyone. Thank you for taking the time to join us today and for your interest in Peabody.

謝謝卡拉，大家早安。感謝您今天抽出時間加入我們以及您對皮博迪的興趣。

In the third quarter, Peabody achieved solid performance across all segments, with notable results in both the seaborne thermal and US thermal segments. We completed $100 million in share repurchases during the quarter, leaving our total repurchases for the year to $180 million. This is a reflection of our continued commitment to returning value to our shareholders.

第三季度，皮博迪在所有領域都取得了穩健的業績，在海運熱力和美國熱力領域均取得了顯著的業績。我們在本季完成了 1 億美元的股票回購，使全年回購總額達到 1.8 億美元。這反映了我們持續致力於為股東回報價值的承諾。

Earlier this month, I hope you were able to participate in our Centurion presentation. If not, I encourage you to view it on our website. At Centurion, we continue to make significant progress towards starting the longwall production in the first quarter of 2026. Thus far, we have produced first development coal and commissioned two continuous mining units. The prep plant washed its first coal in September, and we have scheduled our first customer shipment for the fourth quarter.

本月早些時候，我希望您能夠參加我們的 Centurion 演講。如果沒有，我鼓勵您在我們的網站上查看。在 Centurion，我們繼續在 2026 年第一季開始長壁開採方面取得重大進展。到目前為止，我們已生產第一批開發煤並調試了兩台連續開採裝置。預備工廠於 9 月洗出了第一批煤炭，我們已計劃在第四季向客戶出貨。

As Centurion continues to exceed budgeted development rates, we've had to accelerate the CapEx spend roughly $30 million as a result of the rapid pace of development.

隨著 Centurion 繼續超出預算的開發速度，由於快速的開發速度，我們不得不加快資本支出約 3000 萬美元。

Now moving on to our operating segments. Overall, our third quarter operational results aligned with our forecast, and our mines continue to perform safely. Seaborne thermal demand continues to grow, and pricing remains stable.

現在轉向我們的營運部門。總體而言，我們第三季的營運業績與我們的預測一致，我們的礦場繼續安全運作。海運熱力需求持續成長，價格維持穩定。

We shipped higher-than-expected export volumes on strong production from Wilpinjong. As part of our ongoing commitment to maximizing value from our portfolio, we have reevaluated the timeline to closure for the Wambo underground mine. While initially expecting to run until mid-2026, we have determined that it makes better financial sense to bring forward the mine's closure to mid-2025 due to some challenging geological conditions.

由於 Wilpinjong 產量強勁，我們的出口量高於預期。作為我們持續致力於投資組合價值最大化的一部分，我們重新評估了萬博地下礦場的關閉時間表。雖然最初預計該礦將持續運作到 2026 年中期，但由於地質條件具有挑戰性，我們認為將礦場的關閉時間提前到 2025 年中期具有更好的財務意義。

In 2025, the Wambo underground mine is expected to produce approximately 800,000 tonnes, which is nearly 400,000 tonnes less than in 2024. In our seaborne metallurgical side, we made the opportunistic decision to withhold nearly 90,000 tonnes of shipments at Shoal Creek during the period -- during a period of challenging logistics and weak spot prices in the third quarter.

2025年，萬博地下礦預計產量約80萬噸，比2024年減少近40萬噸。在我們的海運冶金方面，我們做出了機會主義決定，在此期間扣留了 Shoal Creek 近 90,000 噸的貨物——在物流充滿挑戰且第三季度現貨價格疲軟的時期。

The Black Warrior River, which has been closed for unscheduled repairs, is now operational. Spot prices have improved, and we expect shipments of Shoal Creek coal to substantially improve in the fourth quarter.

因計劃外維修而關閉的黑武士河現已投入運作。現貨價格有所改善，我們預計第四季 Shoal Creek 煤炭的出貨量將大幅改善。

The PRB experienced a slow start due to low natural gas prices, but volumes picked up in the third quarter. Shipments exceeded expectations due to higher-than-anticipated customer nominations and improved rail performance. Operationally, our PRB mines continued their effective cost management on material, repairs and labor spend.

由於天然氣價格較低，PRB 起步緩慢，但第三季銷售量有所回升。由於客戶提名量高於預期以及鐵路性能改善，出貨量超出預期。在營運方面，我們的 PRB 礦場繼續對材料、維修​​和勞動力支出進行有效的成本管理。

Other US thermal shipments and costs were in line with expectations, despite low customer nominations. At our Twentymile mine, we will temporarily see lower yield and productivity as the mine has been experiencing some geological challenges, but we anticipate returning to normal operating conditions in the first quarter of 2025. Overall, we are very proud of our operations performance this quarter.

儘管客戶提名量較低，但美國其他熱力出貨量和成本符合預期。在我們的 Twentymile 礦山，由於礦山一直面臨一些地質挑戰，我們將暫時看到產量和生產率較低，但我們預計在 2025 年第一季恢復正常營運狀況。總的來說，我們對本季的營運業績感到非常自豪。

Now I'll turn it over to Malcolm Roberts, our Chief Marketing Officer, who will be delivering our outlook on the markets today. Malcolm?

現在我將把它交給我們的首席行銷長馬爾科姆羅伯茨，他將在今天發表我們對市場的展望。馬爾科姆？

Thank you, Jim. Seaborne thermal processing remained resilient during the quarter. Demand for thermal coal continues to grow, and this growth is Asia centric.

謝謝你，吉姆。海運熱處理在本季保持彈性。對動力煤的需求持續成長，這種成長以亞洲為中心。

In Australia, the Newcastle high-energy thermal market experienced strong restocking demand from the Asia Pacific region to support spot pricing throughout the quarter, pricing averaging $140 per metric tonne. And thermal coal imports in Asia increased year-on-year, with India leading at 12% growth, followed by China at 8% and North Asia at 2%.

在澳大利亞，紐卡斯爾高能熱力市場經歷了來自亞太地區的強勁補貨需求，支撐了整個季度的現貨定價，平均定價為每噸 140 美元。亞洲動力煤進口量較去年同期成長，其中印度領先，成長12%，其次是中國成長8%，北亞成長2%。

Earlier this month, the International Energy Agency published its annual World Energy Outlook, a comprehensive review of the likely parts of supply and demand for fossil fuels and renewable sources of energy. Within this context, the agency estimate -- estimates that coal consumption in 2030 will now be 6% higher than their 2023 forecast. To put this into perspective, the 2024 increase on forecast demand is comparable to the total coal consumption of Japan.

本月早些時候，國際能源總署發布了年度《世界能源展望》，對化石燃料和再生能源的供應和需求的可能部分進行了全面審查。在此背景下，該機構估計 2030 年的煤炭消費量將比 2023 年的預測高出 6%。從這個角度來看，2024 年的預測需求增加相當於日本的煤炭消費總量。

Within the seaborne metallurgical coal market, premium hard coking coal fell to $180 per tonne in early September for the first time since June 2021. Weak steel demand was the key driver. The global steel market presents thin profit margins as steel exports from China accelerated.

在海運冶金煤市場中，9月初優質硬焦煤價格自2021年6月以來首次跌至每噸180美元。鋼鐵需求疲軟是主要驅動因素。隨著中國鋼鐵出口加速，全球鋼鐵市場利潤微薄。

These elevated levels of steel export weighed on steel makers globally. Met coal demand was stifled by production cuts at blast furnaces around the world, redirecting term contract cargoes into the spot market. India was unable to absorb this extra spot volume, which has meant that China has resumed its position as the clearing market for spot cargoes.

鋼鐵出口水準的上升給全球鋼鐵製造商帶來了壓力。世界各地高爐減產抑制了煤炭需求，將定期合約貨物轉向現貨市場。印度無法吸收額外的現貨量，這意味著中國恢復了作為現貨貨物清算市場的地位。

During late September, China announced stimulus measures improving sentiment. Market anticipation of improved demand and lower Chinese steel exports strengthened steel pricing, encouraging steelmakers to ramp up production. This has had a direct impact on steelmaking raw materials, such as metallurgical coal. And as a result, pricing has shown some recent improvement.

9月下旬，中國宣布了刺激措施，改善了市場情緒。市場對需求改善和中國鋼鐵出口下降的預期推高了鋼鐵價格，鼓勵鋼鐵製造商提高產量。這對冶金煤等煉鋼原料產生了直接影響。因此，定價最近出現了一些改善。

Overall, the market for metallurgical coal remains finely balanced and exposed to volatility, influenced by the rate of exports from Australia and economic performance in China. In the United States, electricity generation continues to grow, with the grid load increasing by 3% from 2023 levels on a year-to-date basis.

整體而言，冶金煤市場保持良好平衡，但受澳洲出口率和中國經濟表現的影響，存在波動性。在美國，發電量持續成長，今年迄今電網負載較 2023 年水準增加 3%。

Total South PRB coal production volume increased by 33% during the quarter compared to quarter two, with a total production volume of 51.2 million tonnes. Peabody's South PRB share of total production in Q3 was 43% compared to 38% for the same quarter last year. Generally, the current market dynamic continues to be challenged by comparatively low gas -- natural gas prices.

本季南PRB煤炭總產量較第二季成長33%，總產量為5,120萬噸。皮博迪南 PRB 第三季總產量比重為 43%，去年同期為 38%。總體而言，當前的市場動態繼續受到相對較低的天然氣價格的挑戰。

I'll now turn it over to Mark to cover the financial details.

我現在將把它交給馬克來介紹財務細節。

Thanks, Malcolm. It's nice to be here with everyone this morning.

謝謝，馬爾科姆。很高興今天早上能和大家在一起。

In the third quarter, Peabody recorded net income attributable to common stockholders of $101.3 million or $0.74 per diluted share and adjusted EBITDA of $224.8 million. Operating cash flow of $360 million reflects a favorable reduction in working capital, resulting in available free cash flow of $263.2 million for the quarter.

第三季度，皮博迪錄得歸屬於普通股股東的淨利潤為 1.013 億美元，即稀釋後每股收益 0.74 美元，調整後 EBITDA 為 2.248 億美元。營運現金流為 3.6 億美元，反映出營運資本的有利減少，導致本季可用自由現金流為 2.632 億美元。

During the quarter, we completed the previously announced $100 million share buyback, repurchasing nearly 4.5 million shares at an average price of $22.55 per share. At September 30, we had $773 million of cash and today declared another $0.075 per share dividend.

本季度，我們完成了先前宣布的 1 億美元股票回購，以每股 22.55 美元的平均價格回購了近 450 萬股股票。截至 9 月 30 日，我們擁有 7.73 億美元現金，今天又宣布每股股利 0.075 美元。

Turning to the segment results. Seaborne thermal recorded $120 million in adjusted EBITDA, $16 million better than the prior quarter. Both Wilpinjong and Wambo increased production and reported lower costs quarter-over-quarter, resulting in segment cost below guidance at $47 per tonne.

轉向細分結果。Seaborne Thermal 調整後 EBITDA 為 1.2 億美元，比上一季增加 1,600 萬美元。Wilpinjong 和 Wambo 均增加了產量，並報告季度環比降低了成本，導致部門成本低於每噸 47 美元的指導值。

Together with a $7 increase in realized export prices, segment EBITDA margin increased to 38%. Production exceeded sales by 300,000 tonnes, increasing previously expected fourth quarter sales volumes.

加上實現出口價格上漲 7 美元，部門 EBITDA 利潤率增至 38%。產量超出銷售量 30 萬噸，增加了先前預期的第四季銷售。

The seaborne metallurgical segment generated approximately $28 million in adjusted EBITDA. As Malcolm mentioned, benchmark coal prices fell to their lowest point since 2021, and there was a particularly weak market for spot sales. Shoal Creek shipped only 125,000 tonnes in the quarter as we opportunistically limited spot sales and avoided higher transportation cost due to whole Black outage.

海運冶金業務調整後 EBITDA 約 2,800 萬美元。正如馬爾科姆所提到的，基準煤炭價格跌至 2021 年以來的最低點，現貨銷售市場尤其疲軟。Shoal Creek 本季僅出貨 125,000 噸，因為我們機會主義地限制現貨銷售，並避免因整個 Black 停電而導致運輸成本上升。

Metro had an outstanding quarter and made up for the lower sales volumes at Shoal Creek, keeping the segment in line with previous guidance at 1.7 million tonnes. With the whole Black outage resolved, we expect higher production in sales from Shoal Creek this quarter as reflected in fourth quarter guidance.

Metro 季度表現出色，彌補了 Shoal Creek 銷量下降的影響，使該部門的銷量與先前 170 萬噸的指引保持一致。隨著整個 Black 停電問題得到解決，我們預計 Shoal Creek 本季的銷售產量將提高，如第四季度指引中所反映的那樣。

The US thermal lines produced $80 million of adjusted EBITDA in the quarter, $27 million better than the second quarter. US thermal operations shipped 26.1 million tonnes and realized an average EBITDA margin of $3.07 per tonne. Through the first three quarters of the year, the US thermal operations have generated $196 million of EBITDA, while only requiring $32.3 million of maintenance capital.

美國熱力管道公司本季調整後 EBITDA 為 8,000 萬美元，比第二季增加了 2,700 萬美元。美國火力作業出貨量為 2,610 萬噸，平均 EBITDA 利潤率為每噸 3.07 美元。今年前三個季度，美國熱力業務已產生 1.96 億美元的 EBITDA，而僅需要 3,230 萬美元的維護資本。

The PRB shipped a better-than-anticipated 22.1 million tonnes. The segment reported $51.7 million of adjusted EBITDA, as all three of the mines did an outstanding job managing costs for another quarter. EBITDA margins more than doubled from the second quarter to $2.34 per tonne. The other US thermal coal mines generated $28 million in adjusted EBITDA. Shipments and costs, all in line with expectations.

PRB 出貨量優於預期 2,210 萬噸。該部門公佈的調整後 EBITDA 為 5,170 萬美元，因為所有三個礦場在另一個季度的成本管理方面都表現出色。EBITDA 利潤率比第二季度增加了一倍多，達到每噸 2.34 美元。美國其他動力煤礦的調整後 EBITDA 為 2,800 萬美元。出貨量和成本均符合預期。

Looking ahead to the remainder of the year, we are making a couple of tweaks to full year guidance. Seaborne thermal volumes are now expected to be 200,000 tonnes higher at 16.2 million tonnes and other US thermal costs are up $2 to $45 per tonne. We've added $50 million into capital for 2024, primarily to reflect accelerated development at Centurion as well as timing of spend at Wambo.

展望今年剩餘時間，我們將對全年指導進行一些調整。目前，海運熱電容量預計將增加 20 萬噸，達到 1,620 萬噸，而美國其他熱電成本每噸將上漲 2 至 45 美元。我們為 2024 年增加了 5,000 萬美元的資本，主要是為了反映 Centurion 的加速發展以及 Wambo 的支出時機。

For the fourth quarter, seaborne thermal operations expect another steady quarter with volumes of 4.1 million tonnes, including 2.5 million export tonnes. 400,000 tonnes are priced at approximately $120, while 800,000 tonnes of Newcastle product and 1.3 million tonnes of high ash product remain unpriced. Costs are projected to be between $48 and $53 per tonne. Seaborne metallurgical volumes are forecasted at 2.3 million tonnes, a substantial increase from the first three quarters of the year. The Black outage, which impacted Shoal Creek have been resolved, and we also expect our first shipment of development coal from Centurion.

第四季度，海運熱能業務預計將再次保持穩定，產量為 410 萬噸，其中出口量為 250 萬噸。 40萬噸的價格約為120美元，而80萬噸紐卡斯爾產品和130萬噸高灰分產品仍未定價。成本預計為每噸 48 至 53 美元。海運冶金量預計為 230 萬噸，較今年前第三季大幅增加。影響 Shoal Creek 的 Black 停電問題已經解決，我們也預計從 Centurion 收到第一批開發煤炭。

Segment costs are anticipated to improve to $120 to $125 per tonne. PRB shipments are expected to be 21.2 million tonnes at an average realized price of $13.50. We've continued focus on cost discipline. Costs are forecasted at $11.50 to $12 per tonne, continuing to improve on full year average costs.

預計該部門成本將提高至每噸 120 至 125 美元。PRB 出貨量預計為 2,120 萬噸，平均實現價格為 13.50 美元。我們持續關注成本紀律。預計成本為每噸 11.50 美元至 12 美元，比全年平均成本持續改善。

Other Us thermal shipments are expected to remain steady at 3.9 million tonnes. Average realized prices are anticipated to be $52.40 with costs at $46 per tonne. In summary, we completed the repurchase of another 4.5 million shares, generated over $260 million in available free cash flow, are set up for an even stronger operational fourth quarter, and we continue to make excellent progress in developing Centurion, soon to be a cornerstone metallurgical coal asset and Peabody's global coal portfolio.

美國其他熱力出貨量預計將穩定在 390 萬噸。平均實現價格預計為 52.40 美元，成本為每噸 46 美元。總而言之，我們完成了另外450 萬股股票的回購，產生了超過2.6 億美元的可用自由現金流，為第四季度更加強勁的運營做好了準備，並且我們在開發Centurion 方面繼續取得出色進展，很快就會成為基石冶金煤炭資產和皮博迪的全球煤炭投資組合。

Operator, I'd now like to turn the call over for questions.

接線員，我現在想轉接電話詢問問題。

(Operator Instructions) Lucas Pipes, B. Riley Securities.

（操作員指示）Lucas Pipes，B. Riley Securities。

My first question is on the surety side. And I wondered if you could remind us what the bonding obligations are today with the surety providers underwrite off that obligation and how that might evolve over the next couple of years and to what extent additional capital might be unlocked there.

我的第一個問題是關於擔保方面的。我想知道您是否能提醒我們今天的擔保義務是什麼，擔保提供者承銷了該義務，以及未來幾年可能會如何演變，以及在多大程度上可能會釋放額外的資本。

Lucas, it's Mark. Couple of things or thoughts on the sureties. Nothing has really changed from what I've said previously. We don't expect the bonding requirements to change significantly nor the level of collateral against it.

盧卡斯，是馬克。關於擔保人的一些事情或想法。與我之前所說的相比，沒有什麼真正改變。我們預計擔保要求和抵押品水平不會發生重大變化。

I will remind you, we did get about $110 million in bond reductions early first half of the year and also got some of that collateral back. But that's kind of our run rate right now. And outside of any changes in laws or changes in our footprint, we wouldn't expect to see anything substantially different.

我要提醒你的是，今年上半年我們確實減少了約 1.1 億美元的債券，並收回了部分抵押品。但這就是我們現在的運行速度。除了法律的任何變化或我們足跡的變化之外，我們預計不會看到任何實質的不同。

Got it. I appreciate that. On the met coal cost side, things -- costs have been trending a little bit more towards the higher end of guidance. And I wonder to what extent one-offs like the lock on the Warrior River contributed to that development. And so as we look out to 2025, is the Q4 guidance maybe more indicative?

知道了。我很欣賞這一點。在冶金煤炭成本方面，成本一直趨向指導的高端。我想知道像勇士河上的船閘這樣的一次性事件在多大程度上對這一發展做出了貢獻。因此，當我們展望 2025 年時，第四季的指引是否更具指示性？

Or are there other moving pieces to keep in mind?

或者有其他需要記住的移動部分嗎？

Yes. A couple of thoughts, Lucas. One, we're not providing '25 guidance yet, just to be clear, so I won't speak to that. I do think we've been toward the higher end of our guidance for the segment as a whole.

是的。盧卡斯，有幾個想法。第一，為了明確起見，我們尚未提供 '25 指南，所以我不會談論這一點。我確實認為我們已經朝著整個細分市場指導的高端邁進。

I think in fourth quarter, you'll see that Metrop's production is going to come down a little bit after it's a really incredible third quarter. Shoal Creek production is going to be going up. Net-net, there's going to be some additional production, and you're going to see a modest decrease in those costs quarter-over-quarter.

我認為在第四季度，你會看到 Metrop 的產量在經歷了令人難以置信的第三季度之後會略有下降。Shoal Creek 的產量將會上升。淨淨，將會有一些額外的生產，並且您將看到這些成本逐季度略有下降。

But for the full year, we'll probably come in towards the -- maybe a little bit toward the -- above the midpoint on cost guidance for the segment.

但就全年而言，我們可能會接近——也許稍微接近——高於該領域成本指導的中點。

I want to quickly touch on capital returns and capital allocation. A lot of your peers have taken a step back from buybacks given the softer met coal price environment today. You had a strong free cash flow quarter in Q3. You pointed to a solid operational outlook for Q4.

我想快速談談資本回報和資本配置。鑑於當今煤炭價格環境疲軟，許多同業已經不再回購股票。第三季的自由現金流強勁。您指出了第四季穩健的營運前景。

So should we anticipate a continued activity on the buyback front? Or does this market environment have an impact on how you approach capital returns?

那麼，我們是否應該預期回購方面的持續活動？或者這種市場環境是否對您實現資本回報的方式產生影響？

Sure, Lucas. First, you're right. We completed that $100 million share repurchase in the quarter. I mentioned last quarter, if opportunistically we saw an attractive price point, we could maybe accelerate that buyback based on the favorable outlook for the second half.

當然，盧卡斯。首先，你是對的。我們在本季完成了 1 億美元的股票回購。我上個季度提到，如果我們機會性地看到一個有吸引力的價格點，我們可能會基於下半年的有利前景加速回購。

We were able to accomplish that, getting almost 4.5 million shares bought back at an average price of $22.55. So really pleased with the third quarter performance.

我們成功實現了這一目標，以平均價格 22.55 美元回購了近 450 萬股股票。對第三季的表現非常滿意。

Looking out the last quarter, we talked about the $200 million, $300 million of free cash flow in the second half of the year and really had a tremendous third quarter, achieved all of that in the third quarter. That was helped with working capital, as I mentioned in the prepared remarks. The Shoal Creek insurance recovery collection as well as the reduction in receivables really boosted that.

展望上個季度，我們談到下半年的自由現金流為 2 億美元、3 億美元，第三季的表現確實非常出色，所有這些都在第三季實現。正如我在準備好的演講中所提到的，這得益於營運資金。Shoal Creek 保險追償以及應收帳款的減少確實促進了這一點。

Going forward, we're committed to the 65% to 100% of free cash flow. Nothing has changed there. We'll continue to look at it. We'll see where fourth quarter comes in with realized pricing. If you look at year-to-date, we're probably about $100 million ahead year-to-date, and that was really an acceleration from the third quarter.

展望未來，我們致力於實現 65% 至 100% 的自由現金流。那裡什麼都沒有改變。我們將繼續關注。我們將看看第四季度的實際定價情況。如果你看看今年迄今為止的情況，我們今年迄今可能領先約 1 億美元，這確實比第三季度有所加速。

But stay tuned, and we'll take a look at it in the fourth quarter, knowing that our program does have the flexibility to step out in front of it if we see an opportunity to do so.

但請繼續關注，我們將在第四季度對其進行研究，因為我們知道，如果我們看到有機會這樣做，我們的計劃確實可以靈活地走在前面。

Katja Jancic, BMO Capital Markets.

Katja Jancic，BMO 資本市場。

Maybe starting on the Wambo shutdown next year. Am I understanding this correctly? So the volume next year on the seaborne thermal is going to be down 400,000 tonnes.

也許從明年開始萬博停工。我的理解正確嗎？因此，明年海上熱氣流的排放量將減少 40 萬噸。

So we -- Katja, Jim Grech here. We haven't given guidance for next year on the tonnages, but we're saying year-over-year in total for Wambo underground itself, the -- typically, it's running about 1.2 million tonnes a year. And next year, with the acceleration of the closure, that mine will be at 800,000 tonnes.

所以我們——Katja、Jim Grech 在這裡。我們還沒有給出明年的噸位指導，但我們所說的是萬博地下本身的同比總噸位，通常情況下，它每年的運行量約為 120 萬噸。明年，隨著關閉速度加快，該礦產量將達到 80 萬噸。

And can you remind me, is that -- that's Newcastle grade, correct?

你能提醒我，那是──那是紐卡斯爾的等級，對吧？

Correct, yes.

正確，是的。

So there could be a negative mix shift a bit next year as well.

因此，明年的組合也可能會出現一些負面的變化。

That's possible, yes.

這是可能的，是的。

Okay. And then maybe on the Shoal Creek. So I think you mentioned 120,000 tonnes were shipped in 3Q, and there should be a meaningful -- a material increase in 4Q. Can you provide a little more color on how much you expected to ship in 4Q?

好的。然後也許在淺灘溪。因此，我認為您提到第三季度發貨了 12 萬噸，第四季度應該會出現有意義的實質增長。您能否提供更多關於您預計第四季出貨量的資訊？

Yes. It will be around 600,000 to 700,000 tonnes.

是的。產量約60萬噸至70萬噸。

And in which -- or which markets are you targeting?

您的目標市場是哪個或哪些市場？

Well, there's going to be a component of spot in there. And as I said in my remarks, the clearing market for spot is China or Southeast Asia right now.

嗯，那裡會有一個點的組成部分。正如我在演講中所說，目前現貨的清算市場是中國或東南亞。

And it's -- because spot market, if we look at the high-vol A pricing, it hasn't really improved that much. So it's still pretty subdued. Is -- do you still see value in selling into the spot market at these prices?

這是因為現貨市場，如果我們看看高波動率 A 定價，它並沒有真正改善那麼多。所以還是比較低調的。您仍然認為以這些價格出售到現貨市場有價值嗎？

Well, look, there's the high-vol A market, which is the FOB market. And then there is the CFR market. And look, when I gave the part of the Centurion presentation, I spoke about where all the growth is in Asia, and that's where the tonnes need to go.

嗯，看，這是一個高波動性的 A 市場，即 FOB 市場。然後是CFR市場。你看，當我在 Centurion 演講中談到了所有成長都在亞洲的地方，而這就是噸需要去的地方。

So if you have a look at September, when you look at Asian pricing, as I said, we're down to $180 FOB Australia. And as we sit here today, it recovers to $204.

因此，如果你看看 9 月的亞洲定價，正如我所說，我們的 FOB 澳洲價格已降至 180 美元。當我們今天坐在這裡時，它恢復到了 204 美元。

But if you're selling high-vol into Asia, you have to sell on -- really, on a CFR basis. So what that means is cost and FOB, plus freight. And so I could probably give you a work example here to help you sort of get your ideas around that.

但如果你要向亞洲出售大量貨物，你必須以 CFR 為基礎出售。所以這意味著成本和離岸價，加上運費。因此，我可能可以在這裡給你一個工作範例，以幫助你圍繞這個問題獲得你的想法。

At the moment, PLV is quoted as delivered in China. That's Australia -- from Australia with freight at $215 a tonne. And then if you look at -- generally look at normal high-vol coals, they could probably achieve somewhere between 80% and 90% of that price delivered.

目前，PLV 的報價為在中國交付的價格。那是澳大利亞——來自澳大利亞，運費為每噸 215 美元。然後，如果你看一下——通常看一下普通的高揮發分煤炭，它們可能會達到交付價格的 80% 到 90% 之間。

So if you do that math, you come to a number, let's call it, $183. And then you take freight off that, and that's the freight from the USA to China. And that would tell you that today, FOB price for a midrange high-vol A coal is around $143 a tonne.

所以如果你算一下，你會得到一個數字，我們稱之為 183 美元。然後你去掉運費，這就是從美國到中國的運費。這會告訴您，今天中檔高揮發份 A 煤的 FOB 價格約為每噸 143 美元。

Does it make sense? As I said in my remarks, that is where the demand is. So if you want to keep going, that's the level, and that's where you need to go.

有道理嗎？正如我在發言中所說，這就是需求所在。所以如果你想繼續前進，那就是這個水平，這就是你需要去的地方。

Nathan Martin, the Benchmark Company.

內森馬丁，基準公司。

Congrats on the third quarter results. I'm going to start on the CapEx front, Mark. You guys called out $50 million CapEx increase for full year '24. It looks like $10 million of that was sustaining. So maybe first, what's the driver there?

恭喜第三季業績。我將從資本來源開始，馬克。你們呼籲 24 年全年資本支出增加 5,000 萬美元。看起來其中 1000 萬美元是可以維持的。所以也許首先，那裡的司機是什麼？

And then the other $40 million growth, is that all Centurion? How does that accelerated spend at Centurion maybe impact the timeline going forward?

然後另外 4000 萬美元的成長，就是 Centurion 的全部嗎？Centurion 的加速支出可能會對未來的時間表產生怎樣的影響？

Yes, you got your math right there, Nate. The $10 million is probably sustaining. That mostly is component capital. So componentized items on the equipment fleet that, really, it's maintenance, but just based on the dollar value and the life we capitalize at as capital.

是的，你的數學就在那裡，內特。1000萬美元可能是可以維持的。這主要是組成資本。設備群上的組件化項目實際上是維護，但只是基於美元價值和我們作為資本資本的壽命。

If you add that $10 million to sustaining, that will probably put us towards the top end of our annual range of $150 million, maybe a little bit below, but closer to that $150 million now.

如果將這 1000 萬美元添加到維持費用中，這可能會讓我們達到 1.5 億美元的年度範圍的上限，也許會稍微低一些，但現在更接近 1.5 億美元。

Of the growth, $30 million of that is Centurion. Maybe some of -- the other $10 million is some of the Wambo open cut and really pulling that forward from next year into this year. Again, that's for equipment.

其中，Centurion 成長了 3000 萬美元。也許其中一部分——另外 1000 萬美元是 Wambo 露天開採的一部分，並真正將其從明年推進到今年。再說一遍，這是設備。

At Centurion, continuing -- the development rates continue to exceed expectations, doing really well. Part of that is continuing that and getting another mine or kind of a rental or a higher continuous miner in there to keep those development rates going up. They continue to exceed expectations, as I mentioned, but too early to tell or commit to any sort of accelerated timeline and bringing that longwall into production.

Centurion 的發展速度持續超越預期，表現非常出色。其中一部分是繼續這樣做，並在那裡獲得另一個礦山或某種租賃或更高的連續採礦機，以保持開發率的上升。正如我所提到的，他們繼續超越預期，但現在談論或承諾任何形式的加速時間表並將長壁投入生產還為時過早。

Okay. Perfect, Mark. Appreciate those thoughts. With the Wambo open-cut capital being spent there, is there an expectation that tonnage from the open cut will offset some of the underground tonnage that's expected to fall off last -- excuse me, next year?

好的。完美，馬克。欣賞這些想法。隨著萬博露天開採的資金花在那裡，是否預計露天開採的噸位將抵消一些預計最後下降的地下噸位——請問，明年？

Yes. I do think that next year, we're going to see a little bit better production and more production out of the open cut at Wambo. Again, this spend was kind of orchestrated to get that fully ramped up, and we're close there. But we should see year-over-year increases in production. And that will help offset some of the lower underground productions, as Jim mentioned.

是的。我確實認為，明年，我們將看到萬博露天礦的產量有所提高，產量也有所增加。再說一次，這筆支出是精心策劃的，目的是為了全面提升這個目標，我們已經接近目標了。但我們應該會看到產量逐年增加。正如吉姆所提到的，這將有助於抵消一些較低的地下產量。

Okay. Got it. Off to what kind of base this year is the expectation to be?

好的。知道了。今年的預期基數是多少？

I'm sorry, I didn't quite catch that, Nate.

抱歉，我沒聽清楚，內特。

The Wambo open cut base level of production you're expecting this year, you said next year, hopefully, it would increase year-over-year. So what kind of base are we looking at for '24?

您今年預計的萬博露天切割基本生產水平，您說明年，希望它會逐年增加。那我們為'24尋找什麼樣的基礎呢？

I don't know. We're probably 3 million tonnes and going up from there. Maybe we'll see a 10% increase.

我不知道。我們的產量可能是 300 萬噸，而且還在增加。也許我們會看到 10% 的成長。

Okay. Perfect. And then maybe shifting over to Shoal Creek, specifically on the whole lock. I appreciate your comments there. What I heard was the fix in place is probably more temporary and not long term.

好的。完美的。然後也許會轉移到淺灘溪，特別是整個船閘。我很欣賞你的評論。我聽到的是，現有的修復可能只是暫時的，而不是長期的。

Is that correct? And if so, do you guys expect any impact or future impact to Shoal Creek sales if and when more work needs to be done there?

這是正確的嗎？如果是這樣，如果需要做更多工作，你們預計會對 Shoal Creek 銷售產生任何影響或未來影響嗎？

Nate, there is -- as you said, the repairs are temporary, but we're coordinating with the Army Corps of Engineers. We're not expecting as they do the work to make the permanent repairs to really impact the shipments. They're going to time the work and work with the transporters on the river to minimize or have anything that's even negligible impacts on the shipments in the future. So that's our expectation to not have any negative impacts as these repairs are done in the future.

內特，正如你所說，修復是暫時的，但我們正在與陸軍工程兵團協調。我們並不期望他們所做的永久性維修工作會真正影響出貨。他們將安排工作時間，並與河上的運輸商合作，以最大限度地減少或減少對未來運輸的影響，甚至可以忽略不計。因此，我們希望未來進行這些修復工作時不會產生任何負面影響。

Okay, Jim. That's good to hear. And then maybe just finally on Centurion. Congrats again on getting initial coal there and washed. As you said, it looks like first coal sales here in the fourth quarter.

好吧，吉姆。很高興聽到這個消息。然後也許最後就是百夫長。再次恭喜您在那裡獲得了最初的煤炭並進行了清洗。正如您所說，第四季度似乎首次出現煤炭銷售。

How should we think about the sale of those development tonnes between now and when the longwall starts up as in potential volumes, costs, et cetera?

我們應該如何考慮從現在到長壁開採啟動期間這些開發噸數的銷售，以及潛在的產量、成本等？

So I would have said that next year, we'd sell probably up around 480,000 tonnes in 2025. That's not guidance, that's what I'd estimate. And at that level, that would probably equate to say six shipments, so maybe shipment every two months, something like that.

所以我想說，明年，到 2025 年，我們的銷售量可能會增加 48 萬噸左右。這不是指導，這是我的估計。在這個水平上，這可能相當於六次發貨，所以可能每兩個月發貨一次，類似的事情。

Okay, Malcolm. And would that tonnage flow through the normal P&L? Would that be reflected in seaborne met shipments?

好吧，馬爾科姆。該噸位會流經正常的損益表嗎？這會反映在海運貨運中嗎？

Yes, it'll be recognized as revenue -- to the revenue account.

是的，它將被確認為收入——記入收入帳戶。

Chris LaFemina, Jefferies.

克里斯·拉費米納，杰弗里斯。

So just quickly on Wambo, and I apologize if you got to this earlier, I just -- I hopped on the call late. But what was the EBITDA contribution in the third quarter from Wambo?

所以，請快速接通 Wambo，如果您提早聽到這一點，我深表歉意，我只是 - 我很晚才接聽電話。但萬博第三季的 EBITDA 貢獻是多少？

Chris, I don't have it in front of me between the two and three underground mines or thermal mines. Just look at --

克里斯，我面前的兩三個地下礦井或熱礦井之間沒有它。看看--

Is there a ballpark number you can give us on that? Or no?

您能給我們一個大概的數字嗎？或沒有？

No.

不。

Okay. Secondly, just in terms of capital allocation, you guys obviously have a very strong balance sheet. You're generating cash flow. Good to see the buyback in the quarter. There's also obviously some coal asset sales that are being considered in the market today. And I'm wondering how you think about just M&A in general.

好的。其次，就資本配置而言，你們顯然擁有非常強大的資產負債表。你正在產生現金流。很高興看到本季的回購。目前市場上顯然也正在考慮出售一些煤炭資產。我想知道您對併購的整體看法如何。

And should we look at the $100 million buyback in the quarter as a signal that maybe you're not looking at aggressive M&A opportunities? Or is it kind of -- you want to keep those options open if something very compelling arises, you would like to get involved?

我們是否應該將本季 1 億美元的回購視為您可能沒有考慮積極的併購機會的信號？或者是這樣——如果出現非常引人注目的事情，你想參與其中，你想保留這些選擇？

Yes. Chris, Jim here. And as is with our past practice, we don't make any comments on M&A activity. So I'm just going to leave it at that. Thank you.

是的。克里斯，吉姆在這裡。與我們過去的做法一樣，我們不會對併購活動發表任何評論。所以我就這樣吧。謝謝。

(Operator Instructions) Lucas Pipes, B. Riley Securities.

（操作員指示）Lucas Pipes，B. Riley Securities。

Jim, with the election next week, I wanted to ask how much of a priority it is to reopen the PRB for leases. I understand it's not a priority today in terms of your capital outlays, but with stronger power demand growth, advancements in CCS, for example, maybe one day it will make sense again. So how would you engage with the new administration on this topic?

吉姆，隨著下週的選舉，我想問一下重新開放 PRB 進行租賃有多大的優先事項。我知道，就您的資本支出而言，這並不是當今的優先事項，但隨著電力需求的強勁增長、CCS 的進步，也許有一天它會再次變得有意義。那麼您將如何與新政府就這個主題進行互動呢？

Well, Lucas, I'm going to speak from a Peabody perspective, not an industry-wide perspective, but we have leases and reserves in place for many decades to come. So our position there as far as lease holdings and reserve holdings is very, very strong.

好吧，盧卡斯，我將從皮博迪的角度而不是整個行業的角度來發言，但我們在未來幾十年內都有租約和儲備。因此，就租賃持有量和儲備持有量而言，我們的地位非常非常強勁。

So if the demand does increase significantly above our projections, we can lean into that very easily with the reserve base that we have. There is nothing more that we need to do with that.

因此，如果需求的成長確實顯著超出我們的預測，我們可以利用我們擁有的儲備基礎輕鬆應對這項需求。我們不需要再做任何事了。

In terms of long-term optionality.

從長期的選擇性來看。

Well, if you're talking about optionality over the long term about optionality being to increase tonnage levels, we have that secured already with the lease holdings that we have, if that's what you meant by optionality.

好吧，如果您談論的是長期的選擇性，即增加噸位水平的選擇性，那麼我們已經通過我們擁有的租賃資產來保證這一點，如果這就是您所說的選擇性的意思。

We can increase the output in the PRB if the demand and, obviously, the economics are there with the lease holdings we have for decades to come still.

如果需求和經濟狀況以及我們在未來幾十年內擁有的租賃資產仍然存在，我們可以增加 PRB 的產出。

Yes. Lucas, we got, I think, 1.5 billion tonnes in front of us under lease. So lease is not an issue for us for decades.

是的。盧卡斯，我認為我們面前有 15 億噸的租賃資源。因此幾十年來租賃對我們來說不是問題。

This concludes our question-and-answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to Jim Grech for any closing remarks.

我們的問答環節到此結束。我想將會議轉回吉姆·格雷奇（Jim Grech）發表閉幕詞。

Well, in closing, I'd like to thank our dedicated team for their hard work and focus on our first value safety. We're very pleased that two of our operations, Shoal Creek and Segundo received the prestigious Sentinels of Safety Award from the National Mining Association for their outstanding safety performance.

最後，我要感謝我們敬業的團隊的辛勤工作以及對我們首要價值安全的關注。我們非常高興我們的兩個作業點 Shoal Creek 和 Segundo 因其出色的安全表現而榮獲國家礦業協會頒發的享有盛譽的安全哨兵獎。

Additionally, our Metropolitan and Wilpinjong mines were recognized for their outstanding safety achievements at the New South Wales Mining Health, Safety and Community awards. Additionally, I'd like to thank our shareholders, customers, vendors for their continued support. We remain focused on delivering value through operational excellence and the successful execution of our strategic priorities.

此外，我們的 Metropolitan 和 Wilpinjong 礦場因其傑出的安全成就而獲得了新南威爾斯州礦業健康、安全和社區獎的認可。此外，我還要感謝我們的股東、客戶、供應商的持續支持。我們仍然專注於透過卓越營運和成功執行我們的策略重點來創造價值。

So operator, that concludes our call.

接線員，我們的通話到此結束。

The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.

會議現已結束。感謝您參加今天的演講。您現在可以斷開連線。