Peabody Energy Corp (BTU) 2025 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good day and welcome to Peabody Q1 2025 earnings conference call. (Operator Instructions)

大家好，歡迎參加 Peabody 2025 年第一季財報電話會議。（操作員指示）

Please note this event is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Vic Svec. Please go ahead.

請注意，此事件正在被記錄。現在我想將會議交給 Vic Svec。請繼續。

Well, thank you, operator, and good morning, all. Thank you for joining today to take part in Peabody's first-quarter call. Remarks today will be from Peabody's President and CEO, Jim Grech; CFO, Mark Spurbeck; and Chief Marketing Officer, Malcolm Roberts.

好的，謝謝接線生，大家早安。感謝您今天參加 Peabody 的第一季電話會議。今天的致詞者是 Peabody 總裁兼執行長 Jim Grech；財務長 Mark Spurbeck；和首席行銷長馬爾科姆·羅伯茨（Malcolm Roberts）。

Following remarks, naturally, we will open up the call to questions. We do have some forward-looking information today, and you'll find our statement on forward-looking info in the release. We do encourage you to consider the risk factors referenced here, as well as those in our public filings with the SEC.

發言結束後，我們自然會開始提問。我們今天確實有一些前瞻性的信息，您可以在發布中找到我們關於前瞻性信息的聲明。我們確實鼓勵您考慮此處提及的風險因素，以及我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的公開文件中的風險因素。

And I'll now turn the call over to Jim.

現在我將把電話轉給吉姆。

Thanks, Vic, and good morning, everyone. It's clear that Peabody has had an excellent start to the year. The platform demonstrated two significant attributes that I'll emphasize today. First, the balance and resiliency of our diversified global portfolio, and second, the ability of our team to manage to the market and control the controllables. I'll summarize some of our highlights before turning this call over to Malcolm.

謝謝，維克，大家早安。顯然，皮博迪今年有一個好的開始。該平台展現出兩個重要的特性，我今天將重點放在這個平台上。首先，我們多元化全球投資組合的平衡性和彈性；其次，我們團隊管理市場和控制可控因素的能力。在將這個電話轉給馬爾科姆之前，我將總結我們的一些亮點。

First of all, our Peabody team did a great job of cost control in the first quarter, coming in below our expectations for both the Seaborne Thermal and MetCo segments. And our US Thermal segments came in at the low end of our first-quarter cost target range. Our ability to manage costs is a key driver of success at a time of cyclical market softness in the seaborne markets. Peabody also is on budget and ahead of schedule for the Centurion mine, with a ramp-up of production slated for early next year.

首先，我們的 Peabody 團隊在第一季的成本控制工作做得非常出色，Seaborne Thermal 和 MetCo 部門的成本控制都低於我們的預期。我們的美國熱能部門的成本處於第一季目標範圍的低端。在海運市場週期性疲軟的時期，我們的成本管理能力是成功的關鍵驅動力。皮博迪公司也提前完成了 Centurion 礦的預算和計劃，預計明年初將開始提高產量。

I'll remind investors that this is an operation projected to have a low-cost structure and among the highest realizations in the steel-making coal universe. So expect Centurion to garner the highest margins in the Peabody system over time.

我要提醒投資者，這是一個預計具有低成本結構並且是煉鋼煤炭領域中實現率最高的業務之一。因此，預計 Centurion 隨著時間的推移將在 Peabody 系統中獲取最高利潤。

I was also privileged to take part in a White House event several weeks ago. There, the President signed executive orders to revitalize the US coal industry and expand the use of coal-fired generation. The orders are intended to halt a premature and ill-advised retirement of coal generation. This comes at a time of rising electricity demand and concerns around generation to serve growing US load for data centers, AI, and the return of American manufacturing. This occurs against a backdrop where coal-plant retirements have been receding and the lifespans of US coal plants continue to be extended.

幾週前，我還很榮幸能參加了白宮的活動。總統在那裡簽署了行政命令，以振興美國煤炭工業並擴大燃煤發電的使用。這些命令旨在阻止過早且不明智的煤炭發電退出市場。目前，美國電力需求不斷增長，人們擔心發電量將無法滿足美國資料中心、人工智慧和美國製造業回歸等日益增長的負載。這現象發生的背景是，燃煤電廠的退役數量不斷減少，美國燃煤電廠的使用壽命不斷延長。

Last quarter, I quoted the coal-plant retirements that were deferred at 26 gigawatts, and the National Mining Association now tallies 35 gigawatts of deferrals. That's on a total install base of 172 gigawatts.

上個季度，我引用了推遲退役的 26 千兆瓦燃煤電廠的數據，而美國全國礦業協會現在統計的延遲退役發電量為 35 千兆瓦。總安裝量為 172 千兆瓦。

In 2024, the existing coal fleet only ran at 42% utilization compared with 72% at their historic levels. So coal plants can shoulder a heavier load of meeting US generation demands, including multiple years of data center growth.

到 2024 年，現有煤炭發電廠的利用率僅為 42%，而歷史水準為 72%。因此，燃煤電廠可以承擔滿足美國發電需求的更大負擔，包括多年的資料中心成長。

That's why our position is aligned with the administration's. We believe that all coal-powered generators need to defer US coal plant retirements as the situation on the ground has clearly changed. We believe generators should un-retire coal plants that have recently been mothballed. And we believe the existing fleet can and should run at much higher utilization levels than it has.

這就是為什麼我們的立場與政府的立場一致。我們認為，由於實際情況已經明顯發生變化，所有燃煤發電機都需要延後美國燃煤電廠的退役。我們認為發電廠應該停止運作最近停用的燃煤電廠。我們相信，現有車隊能夠並且應該以比現在更高的利用率運作。

On the last point, the US generating fleet has clearly run at higher capacity factors since the first of the year, with coal fuel generation up a stunning 20% over the prior year. It is clear that coal took market share from higher-priced natural gas and other energy sources.

關於最後一點，自今年年初以來，美國發電設備的容量係數明顯提高，煤炭發電量比前一年增長了驚人的 20%。顯然，煤炭從價格較高的天然氣和其他能源中搶佔了市場份額。

Additionally, colder-than-average winter temperatures in early 2025 led to increased heating demands, elevating coal consumption. I will note that no sooner was the ink dry in the executive orders than we received a call from a utility that we currently provide coal to. They were asking about our ability to supply coal on an extended basis for a major power plant that was on the drawing board for early closure.

此外，2025 年初冬季氣溫低於平均水平，導致暖氣需求增加，增加煤炭消耗。我要指出的是，行政命令墨跡未乾，我們接到了目前我們為其提供煤炭的公用事業公司的電話。他們詢問我們是否有能力為即將提前關閉的大型發電廠長期供應煤炭。

And just a week later, closer to home, we signed an agreement with Associated Electric Cooperative to supply coal requirements for two plants in Missouri. This agreement is expected to total more than 50 million tons of our premium Powder River Basin coal. That would be 7 million to 8 million tons per year for a minimum of seven years.

僅僅一週之後，我們便與聯合電力合作社簽署了一項協議，為密蘇裡州的兩家工廠供應煤炭。預計該協議將進口我們超過 5,000 萬噸的優質粉紅河盆地煤炭。這將是至少七年內每年700萬至800萬噸。

I'll make a few points about this type of agreement. First of all, for those who continue to predict the demise of coal, we continue to see substantial US coal demand many years into the future. Second, rural electric co-ops like Associated tend to be very close to their end customers. Their boards are often made up of ranchers, farmers, and business people who rely on abundant, reliable, and affordable power.

我將針對此類協議談幾點看法。首先，對於那些繼續預測煤炭消亡的人來說，我們仍然認為未來許多年美國對煤炭的需求仍然很大。其次，像 Associated 這樣的農村電力合作社往往與最終客戶非常接近。他們的董事會通常由依賴充足、可靠且價格合理的電力的牧場主、農民和商人組成。

And finally, Missouri faces some of the same new challenges of rising electricity demand that most states are grappling with. Missouri officials have raised alarms that they may not have the power to supply their expected load growth even before new data centers come to the state.

最後，密蘇裡州與大多數州一樣，面臨電力需求不斷增長的新挑戰。密蘇裡州官員發出警告稱，即使在新的資料中心落腳該州之前，他們可能也沒有足夠的電力來滿足預期的負載成長。

We're aware of other Midwestern states that joined some coastal regions and needing to turn away economic growth opportunities since they can't promise the reliable power supply needed to meet this potential new demand. That simply shouldn't be happening in the United States in 2025. It can be directly linked to the short-sighted rush in some states to replace reliable and affordable power sources with weather-dependent, heavily subsidized, intermittent power sources.

我們知道其他中西部州加入了一些沿海地區，並且需要放棄經濟成長機會，因為他們無法保證滿足這一潛在新需求所需的可靠電力供應。這種事情在2025年的美國根本不該發生。這可能與一些州的短視行為直接相關，他們急於用依賴天氣、大量補貼的間歇性電源取代可靠且價格實惠的電源。

I'll note that we are also seeing multiple states pass legislation this year that bolsters coal-fueled electricity. These laws often require that any existing power generation replacements be online before coal plants potentially retire. And they also mandate that these energy forms be reliably dispatchable. That's something that weather-dependent, intermittent power sources such as wind and solar for all our benefits lack.

我注意到，我們也看到今年有多個州通過了支持燃煤發電的法案。這些法律通常要求在燃煤電廠可能退役之前，所有現有的發電替代方案都必須上線。他們還要求這些能源形式必須可靠地調度。這是依賴天氣、間歇性能源（如風能和太陽能）所缺乏的，儘管它們為我們帶來了許多好處。

As the largest US coal supplier, it's worth noting that it has been some time since we've seen policy trends and supply-demand fundamentals both move in the right direction, that these are exactly the current market dynamics. That's a brief summary of highlights from recent months.

作為美國最大的煤炭供應商，值得注意的是，我們已經有一段時間沒有看到政策趨勢和供需基本面都朝著正確的方向發展，而這正是當前的市場動態。這是最近幾個月亮點的簡要總結。

I'll now turn to an update on Peabody's acquisition of premium steelmaking coal mines in Australia from Anglo American. Yesterday, we notified Anglo of a material adverse change that impacted Peabody's planned acquisition of the steelmaking coal assets from Anglo. The material adverse change notice relates to issues involving the Moranbah North mine, which as you may know, remains inactive following what was described as a gas ignition event in March.

現在我將介紹皮博迪從英美資源集團收購澳洲優質煉鋼煤礦的最新進展。昨天，我們通知英美資源集團，一項重大不利變化將影響皮博迪公司從英美資源集團收購煉鋼煤資產的計畫。重大不利變更通知與 Moranbah North 礦場的問題有關，您可能知道，該礦在 3 月發生所謂的氣體點火事件後一直處於停產狀態。

While we have been nearing completion of the steps necessary to complete the acquisition, the issues at Moranbah North have created significant uncertainty around the acquisition. A substantial share of the acquisition value was associated with Moranbah North.

雖然我們已接近完成收購所需的步驟，但 Moranbah North 的問題為收購帶來了極大的不確定性。此次收購價值的很大一部分與 Moranbah North 有關。

A number of facts have brought us now to our position that a material adverse change has occurred. I'll share several examples. First, standing here today, there is no known timetable for resuming longwall production. Second, we understand that workers had re-entered the mine to conduct safety inspections only.

一系列事實使我們確信，重大不利變化已經發生。我將分享幾個例子。首先，今天站在這裡，還沒有已知的恢復長壁生產的時間表。第二，據我們了解，工人們重新進入礦井只是為了進行安全檢查。

Third, the Queensland Mining Union safety representative has stated in the media that he believes it will take a year or years to resume longwall production. Fourth, in conjunction with this incident, the Queensland government has called for a sweeping review into coal mining safety, which we expect could further delay a return to mining.

第三，昆士蘭礦業聯盟安全代表在媒體上表示，他認為恢復長壁生產需要一年或幾年的時間。第四，結合這次事件，昆士蘭州政府呼籲對煤礦安全進行全面審查，我們預計這可能會進一步推遲煤礦恢復開採。

And finally, Peabody's own experience is that recovery from mine ignitions can take longer, oftentimes much longer, than originally contemplated. Under the company's acquisition agreement, if the material adverse change notice is not resolved to Peabody's satisfaction and done so in a limited timeframe specified in the agreement, then Peabody may elect to terminate the agreement. We obviously will keep the market apprised of major developments here.

最後，根據皮博迪自身的經驗，從礦井起火中恢復所需的時間可能比最初預想的要長，通常要長得多。根據該公司的收購協議，如果重大不利變更通知未能得到皮博迪滿意的解決，並且在協議規定的有限時間內得到解決，則皮博迪可以選擇終止協議。我們顯然會隨時向市場通報這裡的重大發展。

Malcolm, I'll now turn the call over to you to discuss global market fundamentals in more detail.

馬爾科姆，現在我將把電話交給您，更詳細地討論全球市場基本面。

Thanks, Jim. And I'll add a few details to your comments regarding US dynamics before turning to seawall markets.

謝謝，吉姆。在轉向海堤市場之前，我將在您關於美國動態的評論中添加一些細節。

There's no question that the strong start to US generation has drawn down stockpiles of both mines and customers. We estimate that US generator inventories have declined by more than 25% on a day's burn basis since the beginning of the year. Elevated natural gas prices and the intermittent nature of renewables left a strong opening for US coal burn to increase. And it did.

毫無疑問，美國發電量的強勁開局已經消耗了礦場和客戶的庫存。我們估計，自今年年初以來，美國發電機庫存按日消耗量計算下降了 25% 以上。天然氣價格上漲和再生能源的間歇性為美國煤炭消耗量的增加提供了強勁機會。事實確實如此。

For the full year, the EIA is projecting coal generation to increase 5%, while US coal production declined 6%, which is a strong market fundamental as the year progresses. Year to date, we have seen good interest in increased volumes, as well as near maximums being taken under requirements contracts, where we agree to supply all the coal a plant may need.

美國能源資訊署預計全年煤炭發電量將成長 5%，而美國煤炭產量將下降 6%，這對今年的市場發展來說是一個強勁的基本面。今年迄今為止，我們看到了人們對增加煤炭產量的濃厚興趣，而且需求合約下的煤炭供應量已接近最高水平，我們同意向工廠供應所需的全部煤炭。

Turning to seaborne thermal coal, thermal coal markets have been well supplied following a weak winter in Asia that both trimmed back demand and provided a backdrop for production. As a result, thermal coal prices reached four-year lows in March.

談到海運動力煤，由於亞洲冬季需求疲軟，動力煤市場供應充足，這不僅減少了需求，也為生產提供了背景。結果，3月動力煤價格跌至四年來的最低點。

At sub $100 thermal coal prices for high energy products, we've begun to see some production rationalization that can only be expected to accelerate the longer that thermal coal prices remain around current levels. The demand story for thermal coal remains intact, with 600 gigawatt of coal fuel generation under construction or in various stages of development, most of which is in Asia.

當高能量產品動力煤價格低於 100 美元時，我們開始看到一些生產合理化，而且只要動力煤價格維持在當前水平的時間越長，這種合理化進程預計就會越快。動力煤的需求仍然良好，有 600 吉瓦的煤炭燃料發電項目正在建設中或處於不同開發階段，其中大部分位於亞洲。

For every coal plant retired in the US over the last decade, more than three plants have switched on in China and India. Within seaborne metallurgical coal markets, the beginning of the year has been weak, as China has continued to increase steel exports and experience soft domestic demand.

過去十年間，美國每關閉一座燃煤電廠，中國和印度就會啟動三座以上的燃煤電廠。由於中國持續增加鋼鐵出口且國內需求疲軟，海運冶金煤市場年初表現疲軟。

When reviewing current met pricing, one true axiom is that one cannot predict future prices. But as we look through past cycles, there are certain elements that need to be in place before market improvement. We see many of those elements today.

在回顧目前的農產品定價時，一個真正的公理是無法預測未來的價格。但回顧過去的周期，我們發現在市場改善之前需要具備某些要素。我們今天看到了許多這樣的元素。

The average five-year benchmark price is $80 above March spot levels and at our lowest mark in nearly four years. We estimate that more than 100 million metric tons of seaborne met coal production are underwater at March spot prices, representing some 30% of total seaborne met coal supply. This suggests supply will come out of the market and support a recovery in prices.

五年期基準價格平均比三月現貨價格高出 80 美元，處於近四年來的最低水平。我們估計，以 3 月現貨價格計算，海運冶金煤產量有超過 1 億公噸處於缺貨狀態，約佔海運冶金煤總供應量的 30%。這表明市場供應將會減少，並支持價格回升。

Just on Q, we've seen prices rebound modestly from the March low and we'll see what traction that gains. We do note that supply has begun to look increasingly challenged, with economics, wet weather in supply regions and unscheduled production averages all combining to result in a much tighter market where we sit today than where the market was at the end of March.

就在 Q 上，我們看到價格從 3 月的低點小幅反彈，我們將看看其將帶來怎樣的推動力。我們確實注意到，供應開始面臨越來越大的挑戰，經濟、供應地區的潮濕天氣和計劃外的平均產量等因素共同導致目前市場比 3 月底的市場更加緊張。

It has been our view that the second half will be stronger, with blast furnaces in India coming online. We continue to see India taking over the growth in global metallurgical coal demand in coming years.

我們一直認為，隨著印度高爐的投入使用，下半年業績將會更加強勁。我們繼續看到印度在未來幾年佔據全球冶金煤需求的成長份額。

Finally, a word on tariffs. While the ultimate impact of tariffs may be most felt in an easing of global GDP, we remain optimistic this will be a temporary phenomenon. I would like to point out that China and tariffs have proven to be an immaterial issue for Peabody, as less than half a percent of Peabody's volumes were flowing from the US to China. This small volume is now being placed in other markets. And of course, we input no coal into the US.

最後，談談關稅。儘管關稅的最終影響可能主要體現在全球 GDP 放緩上，但我們仍然樂觀地認為這只是暫時現象。我想指出的是，中國和關稅對皮博迪來說已證明不是重要問題，因為皮博迪只有不到百分之零點五的貨物從美國流向中國。目前，這小批產品正被放入其他市場。當然，我們沒有向美國輸入煤炭。

That's a brief review of coal market dynamics. I'll now turn over to Mark.

以上是對煤炭市場動態的簡要回顧。現在我把麥克風交給馬克。

Thanks, Malcolm, and good morning. I would like to echo Jim's comments on our strong start to the year and add a bit more insight on the financial results.

謝謝，馬爾科姆，早安。我想附和吉姆對我們今年強勁開局的評論，並對財務表現提供更多見解。

In the first quarter, we recorded net income attributed to common stockholders of $34 million, or $0.27 per diluted share, and adjusted EBITDA of $144 million. Amid challenging market conditions, Peabody's diversified global coal portfolio and strong balance sheet continue to deliver value for shareholders. Favorable cost performance across all segments and better than anticipated volume from the seaborne thermal platform drove strong EBITDA results.

第一季度，我們記錄的歸屬於普通股股東的淨利潤為 3,400 萬美元，即每股攤薄收益 0.27 美元，調整後 EBITDA 為 1.44 億美元。在充滿挑戰的市場條件下，皮博迪多元化的全球煤炭投資組合和強勁的資產負債表繼續為股東帶來價值。所有部門的良好成本表現以及海上熱能平台優於預期的銷售量推動了強勁的 EBITDA 業績。

We generated $30 million in free cash flow, net of $47 million of continued development at Centurion. From a balance sheet perspective, at March 31, we held nearly $700 million of cash and had over $1 billion of liquidity. Our reclamation obligations remained fully funded, and we continued our cash-positive net debt position, and we again declared a $0.75 per share dividend.

我們產生了 3000 萬美元的自由現金流，扣除 Centurion 繼續開發的 4700 萬美元。從資產負債表的角度來看，截至 3 月 31 日，我們持有近 7 億美元現金，並擁有超過 10 億美元的流動資金。我們的複墾義務仍然得到充分資助，我們繼續保持現金為正的淨債務狀況，並且我們再次宣布每股 0.75 美元的股息。

Let's now review segment results. The Seaborne Thermal segment recorded $84 million of adjusted EBITDA and 32% margins. Wilpinjong exceeded production forecasts, exporting an additional 400,000 tons, and the segment achieved average cost per ton, $6 below first quarter guidance.

現在讓我們回顧一下細分結果。Seaborne Thermal 部門的調整後 EBITDA 為 8,400 萬美元，利潤率為 32%。Wilpinjong 的產量超出預期，額外出口了 40 萬噸，該部門的每噸平均成本比第一季的指導價低 6 美元。

The seaborne thermal platform continues to deliver high margins throughout the cycle. Over the last three years, adjusted EBITDA has outpaced capital expenditures by a [9 to 1] margin, driving nearly $1.5 billion in cash flow.

海上熱能平台在整個週期中持續提供高利潤。在過去三年中，調整後的 EBITDA 已超過資本支出 [9 比 1]，帶來近 15 億美元的現金流。

The Seaborne Metallurgical segment reported $13 million of adjusted EBITDA. With lagging market conditions, we slowed the return from a longwall move at Shoal Creek and increased stockpiles, resulting in sales modestly below company targets. The team did a good job of reining in costs here as well, achieving $12 per ton better than expected.

Seaborne Metallurgical 部門報告調整後 EBITDA 為 1,300 萬美元。由於市場狀況落後，我們放慢了 Shoal Creek 長壁開採的回報速度並增加了庫存，導致銷售額略低於公司目標。該團隊在控製成本方面也做得很好，每噸成本比預期高出 12 美元。

The US thermal mines generated $69 million of adjusted EBITDA in the first quarter. This business epitomizes stable cash flows and low capital reinvestment. 2025 business is fully contracted at planned production levels, and meaningful pieces of 2026 and 2027 are already in the books.

美國熱礦第一季的調整後息稅折舊攤提前利潤為 6,900 萬美元。該業務體現了穩定的現金流和較低的資本再投資。 2025 年的業務已完全按照計劃的生產水準簽約，2026 年和 2027 年的重要部分也已記入帳目中。

The PRB mines exceeded expectations for the quarter by shipping 19.6 million tons, given the sharp increase in coal-fueled generation that Jim noted. With a strong start to 2025, the company anticipates increasing demand throughout the year. PRB costs were at the low end of expectations, and the segment generated $36 million of adjusted EBITDA.

鑑於 Jim 指出的煤炭發電量急劇增加，PRB 礦場本季煤炭出貨量超出預期，達到 1,960 萬噸。隨著 2025 年的強勁開局，該公司預計全年需求將會增加。PRB 成本處於預期的低端，該部門產生了 3,600 萬美元的調整後 EBITDA。

The other US thermal mines delivered $33 million of adjusted EBITDA. Sales were modestly less than expected, as the company replenished stockpiles following a longwall move at 20 mile. Compared to the previous quarter, costs per ton were down 6%, and at the low end of company expectations.

其他美國熱礦的調整後 EBITDA 為 3,300 萬美元。由於該公司在 20 英里長壁開採後補充了庫存，因此銷售額略低於預期。與上一季相比，每噸成本下降了 6%，處於公司預期的低端。

Looking ahead to the second quarter, seaborne thermal volumes are expected to be 4 million tons, including 2.5 million export tons, 800,000 of which are priced on average at $77 per ton, while 1 million tons of Newcastle product and 700,000 tons of high-ash product are unpriced.

展望第二季度，海運熱煤量預計為400萬噸，其中出口量為250萬噸，其中80萬噸平均價格為每噸77美元，100萬噸紐卡斯爾產品和70萬噸高灰分產品尚未定價。

Costs per ton are expected to be between $45 and $50 per ton, more in line with full-year guidance after first quarter's outstanding performance. Seaborne met volumes are expected to be 2.2 million tons. A significant increase from Q1 results, as both Shoal Creek and the Coppabella-Moorvale joint venture return to full-year production run rates. Costs are expected to be between $120 and $130 per ton, as we have a longwall move at Metropolitan and we continue to reconfigure Coppabella for long-term success.

預計每噸成本在 45 美元至 50 美元之間，在第一季表現出色之後，更符合全年指導價格。海運金屬量預估為220萬噸。由於 Shoal Creek 和 Coppabella-Moorvale 合資企業均恢復了全年生產運行率，因此與第一季的業績相比有顯著增長。預計成本將在每噸 120 美元至 130 美元之間，因為我們在 Metropolitan 有一個長壁移動，我們將繼續重新配置 Coppabella 以實現長期成功。

In the PRB, we expect to ship 19 million tons, slightly lower than last quarter as we enter the traditional shoulder season. Costs are expected to be up modestly for the quarter in the range of $1,250 to $1,300 per ton due to lower anticipated shipments. The other US thermal coal shipments are expected to increase over the first quarter to 3.3 million tons as 20 mile returns to normal production levels. Costs are anticipated to be between $41 and $45 per ton, a little better than the first quarter on higher anticipated volume.

在PRB，我們預計出貨量為1,900萬噸，由於進入傳統的平季，出貨量略低於上一季。由於預期出貨量較低，預計本季成本將小幅上漲，每噸 1,250 至 1,300 美元之間。隨著 20 英里恢復正常生產水平，預計第一季其他美國動力煤出貨量將增加至 330 萬噸。預計成本在每噸 41 美元至 45 美元之間，由於預期產量較高，成本略優於第一季。

In summary, we delivered a strong first quarter, remained laser-focused on cost containment in a soft price environment, and achieved development rates ahead of plan at Centurion. Together with the second quarter, we expect to be right on plan through the first half of 2025 and positioned for an even stronger second half of the year.

總而言之，我們第一季表現強勁，在疲軟的價格環境下仍然專注於控製成本，並且提前實現了 Centurion 的開發率。結合第二季的情況，我們預計 2025 年上半年的業績將完全按照計劃進行，下半年的業績將更加強勁。

Jim, I'll now turn the call back to you.

吉姆，我現在把電話轉回給你。

Thanks, Mark. I'll conclude by saying I trust what you have seen here today is what I see every day when I look at Peabody, a management team that has delivered and is committed to delivering strong results across all cycles; a business that is very well situated against the macro trends moving through the system; a portfolio that is well positioned and improving in its ability to maximize margins and generate substantial cash flows; and a leader in our industry with our large-scale, broad diversification, superior quality product mix, and long-lived asset base that will be working to create increasing shareholder value for decades to come.

謝謝，馬克。最後我想說，我相信你們今天在這裡看到的正是我每天在 Peabody 看到的，這是一個在所有周期內都取得併致力於取得強勁業績的管理團隊；一家能夠很好地順應整個系統宏觀趨勢的企業；投資組合處於良好定位，並且正在不斷提高其最大化利潤和產生大量現金流的能力；憑藉大規模、廣泛的資產組合

In total, a company I'm extremely proud to be part of, one you can be proud to be associated with. Operator, we can now open up the line to questions.

總而言之，我非常自豪能夠成為這家公司的一員，您也為能與這家公司合作而感到自豪。接線員，我們現在可以開始回答問題了。

(Operator Instructions) Nick Giles, B. Riley Securities.

（操作員指示）Nick Giles，B. Riley Securities。

Guys, I first wanted to say, nice job on the quarter here. My first question, with yesterday's announcement of your notification of a MAC related to Moranbah North, you mentioned a few factors that you believe constitute a MAC. I was curious if you could outline what the process could look like from here. I can appreciate these things take longer. Is there a view that the mine could be at risk of being permanently sealed, or is it a matter of taking longer than currently outlined? Thank you very much.

夥計們，首先我想說，本季你們幹得很好。我的第一個問題是，昨天您宣布了與 Moranbah North 相關的 MAC 通知，您提到了您認為構成 MAC 的幾個因素。我很好奇您是否可以概述從這裡開始的整個過程。我可以理解這些事情需要更長的時間。是否有人認為該礦可能面臨被永久封存的風險，或封存時間是否會比目前預期的更長？非常感謝。

Hey, Nick. Thanks for joining us on the call, and as you said, we got off to a really good start for the year. I'm very proud of what the company has accomplished in the first quarter in setting us up for the rest of the year. I think you asked two different questions there. One is on the timing, and then I think the second was about the MAC itself and what constitutes it.

嘿，尼克。感謝您參加我們的電話會議，正如您所說，我們今年的開局非常好。我為公司在第一季取得的成績感到非常自豪，這為我們今年剩餘時間的業績奠定了基礎。我認為你問了兩個不同的問題。一是時間問題，二是 MAC 本身及其構成問題。

So the first one on the timing, there's a 10-day period, which Anglo has to formally respond back to us on the MAC itself and how they intend to go forward. And then after that, it could be up to 90 days or less to work through a cure period. So it sort of sets the boundaries there of where we're at on timing, and there's quite a few variables in there that could affect the 90 days to make it a shorter period. But that would be the outermost length of time to try to agree on some type of cure.

因此，第一個關於時間的問題，有 10 天的時間，在此期間，英美資源集團必須就 MAC 本身以及他們打算如何推進向我們做出正式回應。此後，可能需要長達 90 天或更短的時間才能完成治療期。因此，它在某種程度上設定了我們所處的時間界限，其中有相當多的變數可能會影響 90 天，使其成為一個更短的時期。但這將是某種治療方法達成一致的最長時間。

And so on your other question, you know, on the MAC itself, I will say that -- we said there was a -- I cited some variables in my comments, and we are under NDA, so there's only so much information that we can put out there. I will say, though, that we have employed quite a few technical experts, consultants, plus our own internal team, and we went through a very rigorous analysis of the situation and its potential impacts, and we view them to be, have the potential to be very, very significant.

至於你的另一個問題，你知道，關於 MAC 本身，我會說——我們說過——我在我的評論中引用了一些變量，而且我們簽署了保密協議，所以我們只能提供有限的信息。不過，我要說的是，我們聘請了不少技術專家、顧問，還有我們自己的內部團隊，我們對情況及其潛在影響進行了非常嚴格的分析，我們認為這些影響可能會非常非常重大。

So in elaborating on the comments that I made just a few moments ago, as we stand here today, there is no known timetable for resuming longwall production sustainably. That is just not known, and it is even known if the current longwall will ever run again. That is not known at this point in time. Our own experience has been from mine ignitions, the timelines can take long or even longer than you anticipated, and our experience, unfortunately, had us sealing in a longwall.

因此，在詳細闡述我剛才所發表的評論時，我們今天站在這裡，目前還沒有已知的恢復長壁生產的時間表。這只是未知數，甚至不知道目前的長壁開採是否會再次運作。目前還不清楚。我們自己的經驗來自於礦井點火，時間線可能比您預期的要長甚至更長，不幸的是，我們的經驗讓我們在長壁中密封。

We also understand, as I noted, that the workers have not yet re-entered the mine to do any production work, only to do inspections, so we're getting on 40 days here now where no work other than inspections, no production work has been done in that mine. So to have a timeline that says from when the ignition occurred to a longwall running sustainably in three to four months, to us, does not seem reasonable and is, again, part of the data that we've used in analysis to do the MAC.

我們還了解到，正如我所說，工人們還沒有重新進入礦井進行任何生產工作，只是進行檢查，所以現在已經有 40 天了，除了檢查之外沒有在礦井進行任何生產工作。因此，對我們來說，制定一個從點火到長壁持續運行三到四個月的時間表似乎並不合理，而且，這也是我們在分析中用來進行 MAC 的數據的一部分。

And the last point I'd like to make there, Nick, is the Queensland Mining Union safety representative has stated in the media that he believes it will take a year or years to resume longwall production. So again, based on a lot of data that we didn't cover and the facts that I've just talked about in a very rigorous, rigorous technical analysis and economic analysis, we feel very comfortable with the MAC notice that we've given to Anglo.

尼克，我要說的最後一點是，昆士蘭礦業聯盟安全代表已在媒體上表示，他認為恢復長壁生產需要一年或幾年的時間。因此，再次強調，基於我們沒有涉及的大量數據以及我剛才在非常嚴格的技術分析和經濟分析中談到的事實，我們對向英美資源集團發出的 MAC 通知感到非常滿意。

Jim, I really appreciate all those comments. This is very helpful. So under the -- assuming that a MAC has, in fact, been triggered, you did note in the release yesterday that Peabody may elect to terminate the agreement if the MAC is not resolved.

吉姆，我非常感謝所有這些評論。這非常有幫助。因此，假設 MAC 確實已被觸發，您確實在昨天的新聞稿中指出，如果 MAC 未解決，Peabody 可能會選擇終止協議。

And maybe just a clarifying question on your comments there, should we assume that this resolution would be not only a resumption of longwall mining, but a sustained resolution, a sustained longwall mining? And so to you, what does that look like? Is there -- would there be a target level of production in mind? Just any more color around that would be helpful.

也許只是想澄清一下您的評論，我們是否應該假設這項決議不僅是恢復長壁開採，而且是一項持續的決議，一項持續的長壁開採？那麼對你來說，這是什麼樣子的呢？有沒有──心中有一個生產目標水準？只要周圍有更多的顏色就會有幫助。

Yeah, Nick, I'm not going to get into too many details here. I don't want to get into negotiations on an earnings call. But I'll just say that we need to see a sustainable longwall production, a longwall that is up and running well for a period of time. And so, I'd just like to leave it at that. And we'll see where that takes us, if anywhere, in future discussions.

是的，尼克，我不想在這裡談論太多細節。我不想在收益電話會議上進行談判。但我只想說，我們需要看到可持續的長壁生產，即在一段時間內運作良好的長壁生產。所以，我只想就此打住。我們將在未來的討論中看看這將為我們帶來什麼結果。

Hey, fair enough. And one more, if I could. I mean, how should we think about the permanent financing processes, these issues that more and more play out? And we assume those discussions are on hold, or any color you could share around that.

嘿，夠公平的。如果可以的話，再多說一句。我的意思是，我們應該如何看待永久融資流程以及這些日益凸顯的問題？我們假設這些討論被暫停，或者您可以就此分享任何細節。

Good morning, Nick. It's Mark. Yeah, with regard to financing, we had kicked off our marketing at wall [costs], nearly 50 firms, very strong interest in underwriting the transaction. Large support. Unfortunately, when we were scheduled to kick off our management discussions and meetings with these investors, the event happened the very same day. We held those conversations.

早安，尼克。是馬克。是的，關於融資，我們已經以壁壘（成本）啟動了行銷，近 50 家公司對承銷交易有著濃厚的興趣。大力支持。不幸的是，當我們計劃與這些投資者開始管理討論和會議時，這件事卻發生在同一天。我們進行了這些對話。

But it's clear now that with all of the uncertainty around Moranbah North, and as Jim mentioned, this most significant piece of the transaction, investors, much like us, aren't willing to underwrite that uncertainty. So until further clarity is noted, our financing is on hold.

但現在很明顯，由於莫蘭巴北部存在許多不確定性，而且正如吉姆所提到的那樣，這是交易中最重要的部分，投資者，就像我們一樣，不願意承擔這種不確定性。因此，在得到進一步明確之前，我們的融資將暫停。

Guys, again, I really appreciate all the comments. So continued best of luck.

夥計們，我再次非常感謝大家的評論。所以祝你好運。

Chris LaFemina, Jefferies.

傑富瑞的克里斯拉菲米納 (Chris LaFemina)。

I have a few questions related to the Anglo deal. The first is just on the MAC itself. I mean, Moranbah North has a history of gas-related safety stoppages, and Anglo had always talked about the risks in the mine that had ground instability issues, and again, high levels of gas. And they've had incidents in the past.

我有幾個與英美資源集團交易有關的問題。第一個就在 MAC 本身。我的意思是，莫蘭巴北部曾發生過與瓦斯有關的安全停工事件，英美資源集團也一直在談論礦井中存在地面不穩定問題以及高瓦斯含量的風險。他們過去也曾發生過類似事件。

And obviously, this one seems to be a little bit more severe, but it's not really that inconsistent with what we've seen historically in this asset. So the first question is, what's different about this event that makes it a material adverse change versus what we've seen historically in this mine?

顯然，這次的情況似乎更為嚴重，但與我們過去在該資產上看到的情況並不太一致。因此第一個問題是，與我們過去在該礦井所見的情況相比，這次事件有何不同，導致其發生重大不利變化？

Chris, again, I'm not going to start getting into past events versus this event. I'm just going to comment on our belief under our agreements with Anglo that this constitutes a MAC from where we sit today.

克里斯，我再說一次，我不想將過去的事件與這次事件進行比較。我只是想評論一下我們與英美資源集團達成的協議，我們認為從目前的情況來看，這構成了 MAC。

And again, on the point I just made in responding to Nick, we feel very, very confident in our approach and the claim that we've made based on the data that we've done with this incident.

再次強調，關於我剛才在回覆尼克時提出的觀點，我們對我們的處理方法以及根據這起事件的數據所做出的聲明非常有信心。

Okay. Thanks. And then secondly, on timing, so that Anglo has a 90-day response period to present a MAC cure, and if it's to your satisfaction, obviously, the deal can still go forward. And if it's not, if we assume that there's some progress, what has to happen for the long-stop date extension to kick in? So because, I mean, I think there's two different extension options, which could actually take us to early next year or middle of next year.

好的。謝謝。其次，關於時間安排，英美資源集團有 90 天的回應期來提出 MAC 解決方案，如果您滿意，那麼交易顯然可以繼續進行。如果不是，如果我們假設取得了一些進展，那麼要發生什麼才能使最後期限延長生效？所以，因為，我的意思是，我認為有兩種不同的延期選擇，實際上可以延長到明年年初或明年年中。

And obviously, the more time that we have, the more likely it is this mine can actually come back online. So do you have to agree with the request for a long stop extension in order for that to actually happen? Or does Anglo have to prove that there's progress and there's an arbitrator that decides that? How does that all work?

顯然，我們擁有的時間越多，這座礦井恢復生產的可能性就越大。那麼，您是否必須同意延長長期停工的請求才能真正實現這一點？或者英美資源集團是否必須證明已經取得進展，並且有一個仲裁者來決定這一點？這一切是如何運作的？

Chris, you got a lot of questions or a lot of different points in there. And again, for the process that we have here with the MAC, they have 10 days to respond how they wish to go forward or not. And if we're going to try to cure, it could be up to 90 days to work through that process.

克里斯，你有很多問題或很多不同的觀點。再說一次，對於我們與 MAC 進行的流程，他們有 10 天的時間來回應他們希望如何繼續進行或不繼續進行。如果我們嘗試治愈，這個過程可能需要長達 90 天的時間。

And I'll just state again, we have to be satisfied with the cure to accept it. And if not, we do have the option to proceed with the termination. So the long stop date and what you're talking about, I think, has to -- again, not trying to get into this too much, but I think that's referring to just the closing process of the sale. And that's a different process. So don't get the two of them, intertwined with each other.

我再說一遍，我們必須對治療方法感到滿意才能接受它。如果沒有，我們可以選擇繼續終止。因此，我認為，最後截止日期和您談論的內容必須——再次強調，我不想過多地討論這個問題，但我認為這只是指銷售的結束過程。這是一個不同的過程。所以不要讓這兩者混雜在一起。

Okay. Got it. And then finally, just in terms of different possibilities here, I mean, if we assume that this mine comes back online, well, then the deal will close if the mine is permanent, I would think would trigger clearly a MAC. But what if there's a kind of a scenario where there's a timeline, but the timeline is relatively long? And would you consider various different structures around the deal?

好的。知道了。最後，就這裡的不同可能性而言，我的意思是，如果我們假設這個礦山重新上線，那麼如果這個礦山是永久性的，那麼這筆交易就會結束，我認為這會明顯觸發 MAC。但是如果存在這樣一個場景：有一個時間線，但是這個時間線相對較長，該怎麼辦？您會考慮圍繞該交易的各種不同結構嗎？

So for example, in the initial transaction, you have these contingent deferred payments and a Grosvenor restart. Is that the kind of thing you consider from Moranbah North as well? I mean, is it really around structure and price and you still want to get the deal done if you're confident that this mine can come back online, even if you do have the option to walk away from the deal because of the MAC? I'm not sure if I asked that question well, but I think you answered it.

例如，在初始交易中，您有這些或有延期付款和 Grosvenor 重啟。您對 Moranbah North 也有同樣的考量嗎？我的意思是，這真的與結構和價格有關嗎？如果您有信心這個礦場可以恢復生產，您仍然想完成這筆交易嗎？即使您確實可以選擇因為 MAC 而放棄這筆交易？我不確定我是否正確地提出了這個問題，但我認為你回答了它。

You asked it well, Chris. But I'm just not going to get into speculation on different structures, how this can be solved going forward. We'll get into those discussions with Anglo. I'm looking forward, hopefully, to getting into those constructive discussions with Anglo.

你問得很好，克里斯。但我不會去猜測不同的結構，以及將來如何解決這個問題。我們將與英美資源集團進行這些討論。我非常希望能夠與英美資源集團進行建設性的討論。

I will just say that whatever -- however we go forward, there just has to be a recognition that there is a significant value impact on Moranbah North because of this situation. And again, a pathway to sustainable long-wall performance is a key thing that we'll be looking for.

我只想說，無論如何——無論我們如何前進，都必須認識到這種情況將對 Moranbah North 產生重大的價值影響。再次強調，實現永續長壁性能的途徑是我們尋找的關鍵。

Got it. Thanks, guys. Good luck.

知道了。謝謝大家。祝你好運。

Katja Jancic, BMO Capital Markets.

Katja Jancic，BMO 資本市場。

Maybe just one more quick one on the acquisition side. I think you mentioned that all financing is not now on hold. Does that also include potentially selling any minority interest in the Centurion mine?

也許只是在收購方面再快速說。我想您有提到過，現在並非所有融資都處於暫停狀態。這是否也包括可能出售 Centurion 礦的少數股權？

So Katja, there is no correlation or tie-in between the two processes. They would go forward or not, completely independent of each other. They were not intertwined in any way, fashion, or means at all.

所以 Katja，這兩個過程之間沒有關聯或連結。他們會繼續前進或停止，完全獨立於彼此。它們根本沒有以任何方式、時尚或手段交織在一起。

Now, the Centurion process, we have been exploring and continue to explore a potential partial sale. We've had a very, very robust response to that, but we're still real early in the processes of deciding whether we want to proceed or not on that. It's still early days on that. But again, I'll make it very clear. There is no correlation between any potential sale of any aspect of Centurion and the Anglo process.

現在，對於 Centurion 流程，我們一直在探索並將繼續探索潛在的部分出售。我們對此做出了非常非常強烈的反應，但我們仍處於決定是否繼續推進這一進程的早期階段。現在還處於早期階段。但我還是要把這一點說清楚。Centurion 任何方面的潛在出售與 Anglo 收購流程之間均無關聯。

Okay. That's good. Thank you. And then, maybe focusing a little bit on the cost, obviously, a very good quarter on the cost side. But then, when I look at second quarter guide, can you talk about why we're going back to more annualized numbers? What are some of the puts and takes that really drove the first quarter cost down and that potentially are not repeating in second quarter?

好的。那挺好的。謝謝。然後，也許稍微關註一下成本，顯然，本季的成本表現非常好。但是，當我查看第二季度指南時，您能談談為什麼我們要回到年度化數字嗎？哪些因素真正推動了第一季成本下降，並且可能不會在第二季度重複出現？

Good morning, Katja. Yeah. A couple of things to note. First quarter performance is absolutely outstanding, and I want to thank all of our mine general managers and operations leadership for really turning in a strong performance in first quarter. Laser focused on cost, we saw a reduction in overtime shifts and contractors and improved productivity. So really off to a great start to 2025.

早上好，卡佳。是的。有幾件事需要注意。第一季的表現絕對出色，我要感謝我們所有的礦場總經理和營運領導在第一季取得了出色的表現。透過專注於成本，我們看到加班班次和承包商的減少以及生產率的提高。2025 年確實有一個好的開始。

When we look at volumes coming down in the second quarter in the PRB quarter over quarter, I see the same thing in seaborne thermal. Seaborne met, we do see some volumes increasing quarter over quarter, but costs going up. There I'll remind you, as we talked last quarter, that we continue to reset Coppabella for long-term consistency and success.

當我們看到 PRB 第二季的銷售量較上月下降時，我發現海運熱能銷量也出現了同樣的情況。Seaborne 表示，我們確實看到一些交易量環比增加，但成本也在上升。在這裡我要提醒你，正如我們上個季度談到的那樣，我們將繼續重置 Coppabella 以實現長期的一致性和成功。

For the full year, we're going to move about an additional 6 million BCMs, which is expected to increase segment cost nearly $5 a ton for the full year. We got a good start to that in first quarter, but less than rateable. So, we're expecting more of that in the second quarter. So you can see that, right now we're definitely trending toward the low end of some of those cost guidances for the year. I do see upside in seaborne met costs. I do see upside in seaborne thermal costs.

就全年而言，我們將額外運輸約 600 萬 BCM，預計全年每噸成本將增加近 5 美元。我們在第一季取得了良好的開端，但還不夠理想。因此，我們預計第二季會有更多此類表現。所以你可以看到，現在我們肯定正趨向於今年某些成本指導的低端。我確實看到了海運農產品成本的上漲空間。我確實看到了海運熱能成本的上漲空間。

And as Jim noted, and I as well in the remarks, I see upside in PRB volumes going forward with strong demand and strong start to 2025. So we've had a really good start to the year. We're one quarter into the year. So we haven't changed our full year guidance, but are definitely trending in the right direction.

正如吉姆以及我在評論中指出的那樣，我認為隨著需求強勁以及 2025 年開局強勁，PRB 交易量未來將呈現上升趨勢。因此，我們今年有一個非常好的開始。今年已經過去四分之一了。因此，我們沒有改變全年指導，但肯定朝著正確的方向發展。

Nathan Martin, The Benchmark Company

內森馬丁（Nathan Martin），基準公司

Congrats on the quarter. I'm going to come to the Shoal Creek mine for a second. You guys mentioned a slower restart of the longwall there due to market conditions. Is this just a lack of demand, low price, maybe a combination of both? And then with met costs in the first quarter well below guidance, I mean, Mark, you just highlighted some of the items there, even on fewer shipments, did the delayed restart of Shoal Creek have anything to do with that? Did that help? How should we think about that mine going forward this year?

恭喜本季取得佳績。我要去 Shoal Creek 礦場待一會兒。你們提到由於市場狀況，長壁開採重啟速度較慢。這只是需求不足、價格低廉，還是兩者兼具？然後，由於第一季的採購成本遠低於預期，我的意思是，馬克，你剛才強調了其中的一些項目，即使發貨量較少，Shoal Creek 的重啟延遲與此有關係嗎？這樣有幫助嗎？我們該如何看待今年該礦的進展？

Hi. Malcolm here. I'll let Mark talk to cost. Look, what we saw during the quarter for, I think everyone in the US saw this, but during March it was a pretty bleak period looking to put product, particularly high vol product into the market. There was a lot of threats of retaliatory tariffs and the like. And the spot market dropped to, on a short basis, potential for high vol product very close to two figures. We were seeing others do deals at those types of levels, and we decided to hold some volume back.

你好。我是馬爾科姆。我會讓馬克談談成本。你看，我們在本季看到的情況，我想美國的每個人都看到了這一點，但在三月份，這是一個相當黯淡的時期，很難將產品，特別是高波動性產品投放到市場。有很多報復性關稅等威脅。而現貨市場短期內高波動性產品的潛力則跌至非常接近兩位數。我們看到其他人在這種水平上進行交易，因此我們決定減少一些交易量。

So to give you an idea, we held back about 170,000 tonnes of sales we otherwise would have planned to have made. The market's recovered from there. People are, the China issue, people have rebalanced volumes and the like. So we've got through that.

給你一個大概的數字，我們扣留了大約 17 萬噸原本計劃要銷售的商品。市場從那時起就復甦了。人們已經針對中國問題重新平衡了交易量等等。所以我們已經度過了難關。

But it was prudent to hold off the restart of the long haul, because we wanted to be sure that we had the product placed for the next quarter, and you don't want to stop a long haul once you've started it. So that was really what we did there. And that may have helped cost, but Mark might be able to help a little bit with that.

但推遲重新開始長途運輸是明智之舉，因為我們想確保下個季度的產品投放市場，一旦開始了長途運輸就不想停止。這就是我們在那裡所做的事情。這可能有助於降低成本，但馬克也許能提供一點幫助。

Yeah sure, Nate. Shoal Creek, it did not help improve costs in the first quarter. It actually probably impaired it a bit with the lower production increased costs there. Shoal Creek is not, it's probably below our average cost for the full segment. So really, the first quarter performance was just outstating productivity and cost management at the other mines.

是的，當然，內特。Shoal Creek，這並沒有幫助改善第一季的成本。事實上，產量較低可能在一定程度上損害了其成本增加的效益。Shoal Creek 不是，它可能低於我們整個航段的平均成本。因此，實際上，第一季的業績只是超越了其他礦場的生產力和成本管理。

Okay, that's helpful. Just maybe a follow-up there. I mean, [flats], I think high-vol A index is around $176 of a metric ton today. If we look at the net back there, Malcolm, like, what does that look like? Are you guys still making a margin? It sounds like you should, based on Mark's comment, that it's one of your lower cost met mines.

好的，這很有幫助。也許只是後續行動。我的意思是，[平價]，我認為高波動性 A 指數今天的價格約為每公噸 176 美元。馬爾科姆，如果我們看一下那張網，那是什麼樣子的？你們還在賺取利潤嗎？根據馬克的評論，這聽起來應該是成本較低的冶金礦之一。

Yeah, look, this will be the third quarter that I talk to this issue. And the issue is, is that there's a high vol index, which is an FOB index for predominantly supplied into the Atlantic market. But the Atlantic market is pretty lackluster in demand at this time. So you've really got to look at what the delivered price is into Asia.

是的，看，這將是我談論這個問題的第三季。問題在於，存在一個高波動指數，即主要供應大西洋市場的離岸價指數。但目前大西洋市場的需求相當低迷。所以你真的必須看看運往亞洲的交貨價格是多少。

At the moment, the delivered price into Asia is somewhere between, say, $160 and $170. And the freight on that is somewhere between $30 to $35. So that gives you an idea, on a metric basis, what the net back would be, FOB. So a little way below the high-vol A index would be how I see it.

目前，運往亞洲的價格約為 160 美元至 170 美元之間。其運費大約在 30 至 35 美元之間。這樣，您就可以從公制角度了解淨回報 (FOB) 是多少。因此，我認為它會略低於高波動性 A 指數。

Okay. I appreciate that. And then shifting over to the seaborne thermal segment, obviously a strong quarter there in the first quarter, 4.4 million tons of sales above your original guidance. It's like 2Q guidance is 4 million tons. So that puts you guys at, what, 8.4 million tons in the first half, which we annualize as well above the high end of four-year guidance.

好的。我很感激。然後轉向海運熱力運輸領域，第一季顯然表現強勁，銷售量比您最初的預期高出 440 萬噸。就好像第二季的指導目標是 400 萬噸。這樣一來，你們上半年的產量就達到了 840 萬噸，以年率計算，這一產量遠高於四年指導值的上限。

So maybe talk to us a little bit about what's expected in the second half. Is there something that's going to weigh on shipments? Or could we be positioned to maybe improve on that four-year guidance range?

那麼請您跟我們簡單談談對下半年的期待。有什麼因素會對貨運造成影響嗎？或者我們可以改進四年指導範圍？

I'll say a couple of things. First, remember that the Wambo Underground mine is coming offline mid-year, end of production there. So we won't see any production in the second half of the year from the Wambo Underground for that segment. I'd also say Wilpinjong had a very, very strong first quarter, as we noted, an additional 400,000 tons above expectations. So that will not repeat itself. So pull that out, and you're looking at a lower production for Wilpinjong in the second half of the year as well.

我要說幾件事。首先，請記住，Wambo 地下礦將於年中下線，結束那裡的生產。因此，今年下半年我們不會看到 Wambo Underground 製作該部分的任何作品。我還要說，正如我們所指出的，Wilpinjong 第一季的表現非常強勁，比預期高出 40 萬噸。這樣就不會再發生這樣的事情了。因此，如果排除這一點，那麼你會發現 Wilpinjong 下半年的產量也會下降。

Got it, Mark. Thanks for that reminder. And then maybe, finally, Jim, you mentioned, you know, attending the signing of the executive orders and supporting US coal production and coal-fired power generation. You called out a couple items, but maybe it would be great to get some additional thoughts on how you think some of these could impact your business, whether it's federal leasing or two-year waivers from [maps] or any other potential changes. Thanks.

明白了，馬克。謝謝你的提醒。最後，吉姆，您提到參加行政命令的簽署並支持美國煤炭生產和燃煤發電。您提到了幾項內容，但如果您能再多聽聽您的看法，了解一下這些內容會如何影響您的業務，無論是聯邦租賃還是[地圖]的兩年豁免，還是任何其他潛在的變化，那就更好了。謝謝。

Yeah, Nate, as far as leasing goes, that really doesn't have any impact on us. We have very strong leases, and we have decades and decades of reserves. If there's some decreases in royalties which be occurring, that would be certainly helpful to us. But our position is really strong, and our leases out west or in the Midwest with the reserves we control as well.

是的，內特，就租賃而言，這對我們確實沒有任何影響。我們擁有非常強大的租約，並且擁有數十年的儲備。如果版稅有所減少，對我們絕對會有幫助。但我們的地位確實很穩固，我們在西部或中西部的租約以及我們所控制的儲備也非常穩固。

And I think the most impactful -- there's a lot of changes, a lot of regulations. It's sort of dizzying when you look at everything the EPA tried to do over the past years to damage coal-fired generation and to undo that. We can talk for hours about all of the things that have to be done, and I will say that through the executive orders and the meetings that we've had with the EPA, with the DOE, and the DOI, they're focused on all of those items.

我認為影響最大的是有很多變化、很多規定。當你看到美國環保署過去幾年來為破壞和消除燃煤發電所做的一切嘗試時，你會覺得有點眼花撩亂。我們可以花幾個小時討論所有必須要做的事情，而且我要說的是，透過行政命令以及我們與環保署、能源部和內政部的會議，他們都關注所有這些事項。

But if I had to give you one specific thing, Nate, it's -- the edict to not close down any more coal plants and to look at -- on retiring recently mothballed ones and giving that support so coal generators can feel comfortable to keep the plants open and to start contracting out for those plants. And I give the one sort of example, and I'll say it's generic because we've had more than one of coal consumers contacting our marketing team to now start supplying them coal again or for longer terms when they thought those plants were going to be shut down.

但是，內特，如果我必須給你一件具體的事情，那就是——命令不再關閉任何燃煤電廠，並考慮淘汰最近停用的燃煤電廠，並提供支持，以便燃煤電廠可以放心地保持電廠運轉，並開始將這些電廠的業務承包出去。我舉一個例子，我認為它很普遍，因為有不只一個煤炭消費者聯繫我們的行銷團隊，希望現在開始再次向他們供應煤炭或長期供應煤炭，而他們原本以為這些工廠將會被關閉。

And of course, the associated contract, which we have been working on some time as they are very committed to their coal generation and a long-term relationship with us. But to enter into that seven-year agreement for the substantial tons, you know, is what we're seeing is, again, more, much more interest to enter into term agreements. And I'll tie both of those together as it relates to Peabody.

當然，我們也正在進行相關合同，因為他們非常致力於煤炭生產並與我們建立長期合作關係。但是，對於簽訂為期七年的大量噸位協議，你知道，我們看到的是，人們對簽訂定期協議的興趣越來越大。我將把這兩者聯繫在一起，因為它與皮博迪有關。

If now, if you're a coal consumer and you want to make sure you have a reliable supplier of coal for your plant for many years, you want to go to a low-cost producer or producer that has reserves to back up these long-term commitments. And our US assets, check all those boxes for our customers.

如果現在，如果您是煤炭消費者，並且想要確保多年來為您的工廠提供可靠的煤炭供應商，您會希望選擇低成本的生產商或有儲備的生產商來支持這些長期承諾。我們的美國資產為我們的客戶檢查了所有這些箱子。

Very helpful, Jim. I'll leave it there. Appreciate the time, gentlemen, and best of luck.

非常有幫助，吉姆。我就把它留在那裡。感謝您的時間，先生們，祝您好運。

Nick Giles, B. Riley Securities.

尼克吉爾斯 (Nick Giles)，B. Riley 證券。

Please go ahead. Thank you for taking my follow-up. Nate asked it well, so I'll turn to the agreement with Associated, which is nice to see. Maybe just to ask it in a different way, you know, does this agreement change the way you're thinking about deploying capital in the PRB or at your other US thermal mines? And then, is there any color around pricing and margin that you can provide? I'm not sure we've seen the agreement flow through to PRB spot prices, but obviously this could be impacting duration. So appreciate any color.

請繼續。感謝您接受我的跟進。內特問得很好，所以我將轉向與 Associated 達成的協議，很高興看到這一點。也許只是換個方式問一下，你知道，這項協議是否改變了你在 PRB 或美國其他熱礦中部署資本的想法？那麼，您能提供關於定價和利潤的任何資訊嗎？我不確定我們是否看到該協議影響 PRB 現貨價格，但顯然這可能會影響持續時間。所以欣賞任何顏色。

Yeah. So Nick, I think Mark made the point, and we've made them at other times, that our US assets are very, very low capital for the amount of cash flow that they generate, and we've always invested in them with the expectation that those mines are going to be running for the life of their reserves.

是的。所以尼克，我認為馬克指出了這一點，而且我們在其他時候也指出了這一點，即我們的美國資產相對於其產生的現金流而言資本非常非常低，並且我們一直投資於這些礦山，期望它們能夠在其儲量的整個生命週期內持續運行。

So we've never shortchanged the capital on them, and that's part of the commitment we've made to our customers that while other coal companies may be wavering or other coal generation plants may be looking to shut down, we're going to be here for you. You can count on us, and we're investing to be here for you.

因此，我們從來沒有少付他們的資金，這是我們對客戶的承諾的一部分，儘管其他煤炭公司可能會動搖，或其他煤炭發電廠可能會考慮關閉，但我們會一直為您服務。您可以信賴我們，我們致力於為您提供服務。

So it doesn't change at all what we're doing with our capital investment or our maintenance, because we've always been situating ourselves to be here for the long term and to have very good margins. Now, I think the second part of your question, if I was trying to understand, Nick, were you asking specifically about the pricing mechanisms in the associated contract? Was that what you were asking about? Or just in general?

因此，這絲毫不會改變我們在資本投資或維護方面的做法，因為我們始終致力於長期發展並獲得非常好的利潤率。現在，我認為你問題的第二部分，如果我想理解，尼克，你是在具體詢問相關合約中的定價機制嗎？這就是你要問的嗎？還是只是一般而言？

Correct. Both. Both.

正確的。兩個都。兩個都。

Yeah, Nick, I'd just say that it gets in the confidential nature of the contract. I'm not sure we're really free to be talking about the pricing mechanisms within that contract. But if you want to talk about -- yeah, I guess all I'll say is on it is it's market-based. I'll just leave it at that, if that's helpful, Nick, and I won't go any further than that.

是的，尼克，我只想說這涉及合約的保密性質。我不確定我們是否真的可以自由地談論該合約中的定價機制。但如果你想談論——是的，我想我要說的是，它是基於市場的。如果這有幫助的話，尼克，我就不多說了。

And if you're talking about the rest of our portfolio and the margins and the contracting, I think I'll just refer back to what we have in the guidance maybe as best to answer that, because it's sort of a broad question, Nick. If there's something more specific, we'll be happy to follow up with you on that. But does that give you enough of what you're looking for?

如果你談論的是我們投資組合的其餘部分、利潤率和合同，我想我會參考我們在指導中的內容，也許這樣最好地回答這個問題，因為這是一個很寬泛的問題，尼克。如果有更具體的情況，我們將很樂意與您聯繫。但這是否足以滿足您的需求？

That's enough. I guess maybe, you know, asked in a different way, you're still generating a healthy margin in the PRB, and so what should give us the confidence that we can underwrite a margin like this into the long term, especially if PRB volumes could decline?

夠了。我想也許，你知道，換一種方式問，你仍然在 PRB 中產生健康的利潤率，那麼什麼能讓我們有信心在長期內承保這樣的利潤率，特別是如果 PRB 數量可能下降的話？

Well, you know, I think there's a few things. First off, you can look at our track record and our history, and you can look at the strength of our reserves. So our cost structure and what we've been specifically in the last six months to nine months, what we've done with our cost structures, I think you can expect to see us that going forward with that. So on the cost side, the basis of our reserves, how we've historically performed, I think should give you all the confidence in the world for that.

嗯，你知道，我認為有幾件事。首先，您可以看看我們的業績記錄和歷史，還可以看看我們儲備的實力。因此，我們的成本結構以及我們在過去六個月到九個月中的具體情況，我們對成本結構所做的努力，我想您可以期待看到我們繼續向前發展。因此，在成本方面，我們的儲備基礎以及我們的歷史表現，我認為應該讓大家對此充滿信心。

And then going forward, market prices are always a product of supply and demand, and we have the best reserve position in the basin. We have the lowest cost reserve position in the basement. So whether other producers are here for the time that we can be here, I'll leave that up to somebody else to comment on, but we feel very, very good about our position compared to other companies.

展望未來，市場價格始終是供需關係的產物，我們在該盆地擁有最好的儲備地位。我們在地下室擁有成本最低的儲備倉。因此，其他生產商是否會像我們一樣在這裡停留這麼長時間，我將留給其他人來評論，但與其他公司相比，我們對自己的地位感到非常非常滿意。

And the demand side, for all the things we talked about, has a lot of tailwinds behind it. So at today's prices or stronger prices, our costs are going to be very predictable, and we feel very good about those margins.

就我們討論的所有事情而言，需求方面有很多順風因素。因此，以今天的價格或更高的價格，我們的成本將非常可預測，我們對這些利潤率感到非常滿意。

Jim, that's all very helpful, and I agree that your competitive advantage in the PRB is underappreciated. So if I could sneak in one more, nice to see Centurion ahead of schedule. Apologies if I missed it, but what was the spend towards Centurion in Q1, and what remains in 2025?

吉姆，這一切都非常有幫助，我同意你在 PRB 中的競爭優勢被低估了。因此，如果我可以再偷偷看一次，很高興能提前看到 Centurion。如果我錯過了，請原諒，但是第一季 Centurion 的支出是多少，2025 年還剩下多少？

Yeah, Nick, I'll give that one over to Mark to respond to.

是的，尼克，我會把這個問題交給馬克來回答。

Sure, Jim. In the first quarter, we spent $47 million toward the development of Centurion. When you're looking at the total to get that long wall into production in the Southern District, there's about $150 million left.

當然，吉姆。第一季度，我們花了 4700 萬美元用於 Centurion 的開發。當你考慮在南區將那面長牆投入生產的總成本時，還剩下約 1.5 億美元。

Got it. Guys, thank you so much. All righty.

知道了。夥計們，非常感謝你們。好的。

Yeah, it's really quite an achievement. I think, Nick, a lot of people misappreciate, as well, that we fully funded and self-financed the entire development of Centurion. When you include the acquisition awards, well, we've spent $540 million to date on that, all self-financed, while still continuing to provide shareholder returns and dividends. So looking forward to getting that done. That thing should be in long wall production first quarter next year.

是的，這確實是一項了不起的成就。尼克，我認為很多人也誤解了我們完全資助並自籌資金完成了 Centurion 的整個開發。如果算上收購獎勵，那麼，迄今為止我們已經花了 5.4 億美元，全部都是自籌資金，同時仍繼續提供股東回報和股息。所以我期待能夠完成它。那個東西應該會在明年第一季投入長壁生產。

Good to hear. Guys, thanks again for all the color. Best of luck.

很高興聽到這個消息。夥計們，再次感謝你們帶來的所有色彩。祝你好運。

Thank you, operator. Thank you, operator, and thanks to everyone for the time today. I also want to give recognition to our Peabody team and our continued focus on safe, low-cost, environmentally responsible operations. So we look forward to keeping you up to date on our progress as the year rolls on. Thank you.

謝謝您，接線生。謝謝接線員，也謝謝大家今天的時間。我還要對我們的皮博迪團隊以及我們對安全、低成本、對環境負責的營運的持續關注表示讚賞。因此，我們期待著隨著時間的推移向您通報我們的進展。謝謝。

Thank you. The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.

謝謝。會議現已結束。感謝您參加今天的演講。您現在可以斷開連線。