Peabody Energy Corp (BTU) 2024 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good day and welcome to the Peabody Q4 2024 earnings call. (Operator Instructions)

大家好，歡迎參加 Peabody 2024 年第四季財報電話會議。（操作員指令）

I would now like to turn the conference over to Vic Svec. Please go ahead.

現在我想將會議交給 Vic Svec。請繼續。

Well, thank you operator and good morning, everyone. Thank you all for joining today to take part in Peabody's fourth quarter conference call remarks today will be from Peabody's President and CEO Jim Grech, CFO Mark Spurbeck and our Chief Marketing Officer Malcolm Roberts following the remarks. Of course, we'll open up the call to questions.

好的，謝謝接線生，大家早安。感謝大家今天參加 Peabody 第四季電話會議，今天的演講將由 Peabody 總裁兼執行長 Jim Grech、財務長 Mark Spurbeck 和我們的首席行銷長 Malcolm Roberts 發表。當然，我們會開放提問環節。

Now, we do have some forward-looking statement information today and you'll find our statements on forward-looking info in the release. We do encourage you to consider the risk factors that we reference here along with our public filings with the SEC and I'll now turn the call over to Jim.

現在，我們今天確實有一些前瞻性聲明信息，您可以在新聞稿中找到我們關於前瞻性資訊的聲明。我們確實鼓勵您考慮我們在此提到的風險因素以及我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的公開文件，現在我將電話轉給吉姆。

Thanks Vic and Good morning, everyone had a strong finish to 2024 marked by a highly productive quarter that sets the foundation for multiple years of substantial growth and value creation.

謝謝維克，早安，大家都在 2024 年取得了圓滿的成績，這是一個高產的季度，為多年的大幅增長和價值創造奠定了基礎。

Consider that in the past three months we turned in a solid fourth quarter results even in the face of some geologic and pricing challenges.

想想看，在過去三個月裡，即使面臨一些地質和定價挑戰，我們仍然取得了穩健的第四季業績。

Ship the first coal to market from the Centurion mine agreed to buy multiple premium hard coking coal mines from Anglo American entered into an agreement with clean energy leader RWE to develop renewable energy projects and reclaimed mine lands.

從 Centurion 礦場向市場運出第一批煤炭，同意從英美資源集團購買多個優質硬焦煤礦，與清潔能源領導者 RWE 達成協議，開發再生能源項目和回收礦山土地。

Completed a year in which we returned $221 million to shareholders while continuing to reinvest in the business.

在這一年中，我們向股東返還了 2.21 億美元，同時繼續對業務進行再投資。

Set a new 140 plus year company record for lowest accident rates. Reclaim 70% more land than we disturbed while freeing up more than $100 million in reclamation binding obligations and again achieved the top rating for governance by ratings firm ISS. we know of no other coal company that can cite that record of recent positive momentum.

創下公司 140 多年來事故率最低的新紀錄。收回的土地比我們幹擾的土地多 70%，同時釋放了超過 1 億美元的土地收回約束性義務，並再次獲得評級公司 ISS 的最高治理評級。據我們所知，沒有其他煤炭公司能保持近期的正面動能。

And while it is an impressive list by no means, can we say that we're hitting on all cylinders yet? Case in point, Seaborne met coal prices are up 45% in the past year as we move through the low of the cycle with expectations of improvement later in the year. US coal demand hasn't yet caught the uplift that can be expected from growing domestic power demand, which we believe will occur over time.

儘管這絕對不是一個令人印象深刻的清單，但我們能說我們已經全力以赴了嗎？舉個例子，海運冶金煤價格在過去一年上漲了 45%，我們正處於週期的低谷，預計今年稍後會有所回升。美國煤炭需求尚未趕上國內電力需求成長所帶來的預期成長，我們相信隨著時間的推移，國內電力需求將隨之成長。

And we've worked through geologic challenges at our Twentymile mine with increased production just now taking hold. I'll spend a moment updating you on our major actions to transform Peabody into a company focused on serving growing met coal demands at Asian steel mills.

我們已經克服了 Twentymile 礦場的地質挑戰，目前產量正在增加。我將花一點時間向您介紹我們為將皮博迪轉變為專注於滿足亞洲鋼廠日益增長的冶金煤需求的公司而採取的主要措施。

Late in the quarter. Peabody shipped its first coal from the Centurion mine to a Southeast Asian steel mill. We now have four continuous miners in coal in Centurion Southern district and expect two continuous miners to enter coal in the northern district in the third quarter. For 2025 we are looking at half a million tons of development coal from Centurion ahead of a projected 3.5 million tons in 2026. When longwall production in the southern district begins.

本季末。皮博迪公司將第一批煤炭從 Centurion 礦區運往東南亞的一家鋼鐵廠。目前，我們在 Centurion 南區擁有四台連續採礦機，預計第三季將有兩台連續採礦機進入北區煤炭開採。我們預計 2025 年 Centurion 煤炭產量將達到 50 萬噸，而 2026 年預計產量將達到 350 萬噸。當南部地區開始長壁開採時。

I'm also pleased to report that Peabody's planned acquisition of premium hard coking coal mines in Australia from Anglo American is progressing well. Since signing the agreement, we have been active on a number of fronts.

我也很高興地報告，皮博迪從英美資源集團收購澳洲優質硬焦煤礦的計畫進展順利。自簽署協議以來，我們在許多方面都積極開展工作。

We've received regulatory approvals from several jurisdictions, advance the contractual pre-emption process started the permanent financing process and have begun in depth integration planning.

我們已獲得多個司法管轄區的監管批准，推進了合約優先購買權程序，啟動了永久融資程序，並已開始深入整合規劃。

We are now targeting completion of the acquisition next quarter, obviously subject to clearing the closing conditions.

我們目前的目標是下個季度完成收購，但顯然要滿足成交條件。

I'll remind investors of the many strategic and financial aspects that make this transaction so appealing.

我會提醒投資者註意使這筆交易如此有吸引力的諸多策略和財務方面。

First of all, this positions Peabody as a leading Seaborne met coal supplier on a pro forma basis. We expect 3/4 of Peabody EBITDA in 2026 to come from metallurgical coal.

首先，這使 Peabody 在形式上成為領先的海運冶金煤供應商。我們預計 Peabody EBITDA 的 2026 年 3/4 將來自冶金煤。

This is also an acquisition that we believe is accretive to cash flows across all periods. The transaction boosts both coke and coal quality, improving realizations and mine lives with averages of more than 20 years. Geographically, we will have the logistics advantage of having most of our met coal production and sales in the Pacific Rim.

我們相信，這次收購還將在各個時期增加現金流。該交易提高了焦炭和煤炭的質量，提高了礦山的產量並將礦山壽命平均延長至20年以上。從地理位置來看，我們的大部分冶金煤生產和銷售都在環太平洋地區，這將帶來物流優勢。

As global steel production continues to shift to Asia, we are highly confident that there are some $100 million a year in synergies to be captured post-acquisition.

隨著全球鋼鐵生產持續向亞洲轉移，我們非常有信心，收購後每年可獲得約1億美元的綜效。

Finally, we believe that the strong cash flows of the acquired assets will accommodate continued shareholder returns and lead to a favourable re-rating of the stock. From the acquired mines we are projecting 11.3 million tons of saleable production our first full year of ownership in 2026. Since our November announcement, our confidence in those numbers has only grown.

最後，我們相信收購資產的強勁現金流將帶來持續的股東回報，並帶來股票的有利重新評級。我們預計，2026 年是我們擁有所有權的第一個完整年度，所收購礦場的可銷售產量將達到 1,130 萬噸。自從我們去年11月宣布這項消息以來，我們對這些數字的信心只增不減。

For example, a number of operational improvements are being implemented by Anglo. And as we speak, the new longwall at Moranbah North is being ordered. In a moment I'll turn the call over to Malcolm Roberts, our Chief Marketing Officer to talk through the global coal markets. As a lead in I would note that the US is experiencing the strongest confluence of policy and commercial tail ones that we've seen in more than two decades.

例如，英美資源集團正在實施多項營運改善措施。正如我們所說，莫蘭巴北部的新長壁開採​​正在接受訂購。稍後我將把電話轉給我們的首席行銷長馬爾科姆·羅伯茨 (Malcolm Roberts)，討論全球煤炭市場。首先，我想指出，美國正在經歷二十多年來最強烈的政策和商業尾端融合。

Consider these facts. First of all, after some 15 years of flat electricity load growth in the US. Utility experts and industry observers are now expecting 2% to 3% annual load growth in coming years due to data centres and increased electrification.

考慮一下這些事實。首先，美國的電力負荷在經歷了約15年的持平成長之後。公用事業專家和產業觀察家預計，由於資料中心和電氣化程度的提高，未來幾年年負荷將成長 2% 至 3%。

Second, following multiple years of premature retirements and coal fuel generation, we have now seen deferrals and retirement plans extending the lives of 51 coal units in 17 states constituting 26 gigawatts of power enough to power 20 million homes.

其次，在經歷了多年的提前退役和煤炭燃料發電之後，我們現在看到延期和退役計劃延長了17個州的51個煤炭機組的使用壽命，這些機組的發電量為26千兆瓦，足以為2000萬戶家庭供電。

Third, we have a new administration that is vocally pro coal and is already taking steps to facilitate common sense policies to assist our utility customers while also encouraging greater exports of LNG to Europe.

第三，我們的新政府公開支持煤炭，並已採取措施推行常識政策來幫助我們的公用事業客戶，同時鼓勵增加對歐洲的液化天然氣出口。

Fourth, we are seeing a favourable environment to increase utilization of existing coal plants which ran at 72% of capacity on average early last decade. But most recently, we are only averaging 42% utilization.

第四，我們看到了提高現有燃煤電廠利用率的有利環境，上個十年初這些電廠的平均產能利用率為72％。但最近，我們的平均利用率僅42％。

And finally, we have new entrants into merchant power generation to look to change up the dynamics of recent years.

最後，我們有新進入商業發電領域的公司，希望改變近年來的格局。

Peabody itself has been approached by household name, private equity funds that are looking for creative means to match up reliable low cost coal plants with growing data centre needs for backfill generation to feed a capacity hungry grid.

皮博迪本身已經被一些家喻戶曉的私募股權基金所接洽，這些基金正在尋找創造性的方法，將可靠的低成本燃煤電廠與不斷增長的數據中心需求相匹配，以補充發電量，滿足容量需求旺盛的電網的需求。

Having covered US markets, Malcolm, I'll ask you to complete the discussion with Seaborne supply demand dynamics.

馬爾科姆，在介紹完美國市場之後，我想請你完成與 Seaborne 供需動態的討論​​。

Thanks Jim. You've given a good overview of US policy and market trends. Those trends along with the strong winter weather have drawn down stockpiles in our minds and at our customers. The US thermal coal production is largely spoken for during the first half of the year, and we expect to see our customer base come to market for additional volumes as the year progresses. In our discussions with customers, they're anecdotally confirming that the narrative of data centres driving electricity demand growth is real. Now, I'll turn to what we are seeing in global seaboard markets starting with met coal. Near term Seaborne met markets remain well supplied as the Chinese domestic economy remains soft. China's apparent steel consumption declined by approximately 5% in 2024 to just under 900 million tons leading to net steel exports to increase by 30% to the highest level since 2015.

謝謝吉姆。您對美國政策和市場趨勢進行了很好的概述。這些趨勢加上寒冷的冬季天氣導致我們和客戶的庫存減少。美國動力煤產量主要集中在今年上半年，我們預計隨著時間的推移，我們的客戶群將進入市場購買更多動力煤。在我們與客戶的討論中，他們透過軼事證實資料中心推動電力需求成長的說法是真實的。現在，我將從冶金煤開始，談談我們在全球沿海市場看到的情況。由於中國國內經濟依然疲軟，短期內海運肉品市場供應依然充足。2024年，中國表觀鋼鐵消費量將下降約5%，至略低於9億噸，導致鋼鐵淨出口量成長30%，達到2015年以來的最高水準。

Another way of viewing steel from our perspective is its refined metallurgical coal. So, China's strong steel exports translated into otherwise weaker met coal demand elsewhere. Steel production outside of China has remained largely steady as a result of growth in India. However, margins have become challenged.

從我們的角度來看鋼鐵的另一種方式是其精煉冶金煤。因此，中國鋼鐵出口強勁，導致其他地區煤炭需求減弱。由於印度鋼鐵產量的成長，中國以外地區的鋼鐵產量基本上保持穩定。然而，利潤率已面臨挑戰。

Like most observers, we don't view China as the growth engine for met coal demand growth over time though. That role is likely to be played by India and in 2025 we expected in an 8% increase in Indian steel production underwritten by several new blast furnaces coming online. From a supply perspective we are seeing some tightness in the premium low volt [PCO] segment. In the coking coal segment, there have been notable disruptions in high volt coking coal production including mine fires and bankruptcies that is partially offsetting some of the easing of demand from Atlantic buyers. Longer-term. We anticipate the demand and supply fundamentals to drive increasing price spreads between premium hard coking coal and lesser grades. Which of course is the thesis underpinning the development of the Centurion mine and our premium hard coking coal acquisition.

然而，與大多數觀察家一樣，我們並不認為中國會成為煤炭需求長期成長的成長引擎。印度很可能扮演這個角色，我們預計到 2025 年，隨著幾座新高爐的投產，印度的鋼鐵產量將增加 8%。從供應角度來看，我們發現高端低壓[PCO]領域存在一些緊張的情況。在焦煤領域，高壓焦煤生產出現了明顯中斷，包括礦井火災和破產，這部分抵消了大西洋買家需求的減弱。長期而言。我們預計，供需基本面將推動優質硬焦煤與低等級硬焦煤之間的價差擴大。這當然是我們開發 Centurion 礦場和收購優質硬焦煤的論點。

Turning to seaboard thermal markets to wrap up 2024, China increased total coal imports to 543 million metric tons a 14.4% increase from 2023. China's imports of Australian coal increased by over 50% during the same period. The increase in Chinese imports was the key contributor to global Seaborne demand growth during 2024. Within the global seaborne thermal market, we have seen a mix in the northern hemisphere of colder weather in the Atlantic and warmer winter weather in Asia. Recent demand for imports have been mixed with stockpiles and jurisdictions such as China and India higher than normal. Attention is now turning to industrial activity following Lunar New Year breaks in China and Asia more generally in coming weeks.

展望沿海火力發電市場，到2024年，中國煤炭進口總量將比2023年增加14.4%至5.43億公噸。同期中國對澳洲煤炭的進口量增加了50%以上。中國進口的成長是 2024 年全球海運需求成長的主要動力。在全球海上熱量市場中，我們看到北半球大西洋的寒冷天氣和亞洲冬季溫暖天氣的混合。近期進口需求與庫存混雜，中國和印度等地區進口量高於正常水準。未來幾週，人們的注意力將轉向中國和亞洲農曆新年假期後的工業活動。

As the year progresses, we'll see how Europe restocking of natural gas may influence LNG pricing and the relative competitiveness of Australian high energy coal. We'll also observe how recently announced trade tariffs influence Seaborne trade flows as relative price competitiveness of US coal exports to China are likely impacted. That's a brief review of the coal market dynamics. I'll leave it there for now and welcome the opportunity to provide further details in Q&A and now I'll turn the call over to Mark.

隨著時間的推移，我們將看到歐洲天然氣補充庫存將如何影響液化天然氣定價和澳洲高能量煤的相對競爭力。我們還將觀察最近宣布的貿易關稅如何影響海運貿易流量，因為美國煤炭對華出口的相對價格競爭力可能會受到影響。以上是對煤炭市場動態的簡要回顧。我現在就講到這裡，歡迎有機會在問答環節提供更多細節，現在我會把電話交給馬克。

Thanks Malcolm and Good morning, Jim noted our strong finish to the year and I'll provide some additional colour. In the fourth quarter we recorded net income attributable to common stockholders of $31 million or $0.25 per diluted share and adjusted EBITDA of 177 million.

謝謝馬爾科姆，早安，吉姆注意到我們今年的收官表現強勁，我會提供一些額外的內容。第四季度，我們實現歸屬於普通股股東的淨利潤 3,100 萬美元，即每股攤薄收益 0.25 美元，調整後 EBITDA 為 1.77 億美元。

The company generated $121 million of operating cash flow from continuing operations.

該公司從持續經營中產生了1.21億美元的營運現金流。

This contributed to a full year net income attributable to common stockholders of $371 million and adjusted EBITA of $872 million.

這使得全年歸屬於普通股股東的淨利潤達到 3.71 億美元，調整後 EBITA 達到 8.72 億美元。

The company generated $613 million of operating cash flow from continuing operations. In 2024 we returned $221 million to shareholders through share repurchases and dividends and advanced Centurion through its first coal shipment in the fourth quarter.

該公司從持續經營中產生了 6.13 億美元的營運現金流。2024 年，我們透過股票回購和股息向股東返還了 2.21 億美元，並在第四季度完成了 Centurion 的第一批煤炭運輸。

I would note since restarting our shareholder return program, we've returned $600 million to shareholders and invested $500 million in the development and expansion of Centurion. At December. 31st, Peabody had $700 million of cash and available liquidity of $1.1 billion and our reclamation obligations remain fully funded.

我要指出的是，自從重啟股東回報計畫以來，我們已向股東返還了 6 億美元，並投資 5 億美元用於 Centurion 的開發和擴張。十二月。 31 日，Peabody 擁有 7 億美元現金和 11 億美元可用流動資金，並且我們的複墾義務仍然得到充分資助。

We believe this financial strength and balanced capital allocation will best reward our shareholders over time.

我們相信，隨著時間的推移，這種財務實力和均衡的資本配置將為我們的股東帶來最佳回報。

They also positioned Peabody for the Anglo acquisition marking a deliberate progression in Peabody's financial and strategic transformation.

他們也為皮博迪收購英美資源集團做好了準備，這標誌著皮博迪財務和策略轉型邁出了重要的一步。

Looking ahead, Peabody's capital allocation will be heavily shaped by our pending acquisition.

展望未來，Peabody 的資本配置將在很大程度上受到我們即將進行的收購的影響。

As a reminder, we have structured the transaction with a combination of upfront deferred and contingent payments. This is all designed to enable the anticipated cash flows from the acquired assets to self-fund the transaction and set up a higher baseline for sustainable shareholder returns.

提醒一下，我們已經將交易結構設計為預付延期付款和或有付款相結合。這一切都是為了讓收購資產預期的現金流能夠為交易提供資金，並為可持續的股東回報奠定更高的基礎。

Let's now review the segment results. In the fourth quarter. Seaborne thermal recorded $112 million of adjusted EBITDA on margins of 36%. Tons shipped were ahead of expectations and that was primarily due to higher than anticipated production at Wambo underground. Seaborne thermal cost per ton remains stable with the third quarter beating expectations.

現在讓我們回顧一下細分結果。在第四季。Seaborne Thermal 的調整後 EBITDA 為 1.12 億美元，利潤率為 36%。出貨量超出預期，主要由於 Wambo 地下礦產量高於預期。海運熱力每噸成本維持穩定，第三季超出預期。

For the full year the seaborne thermal segment reported $430 million of adjusted EBITDA. Shipments increased nearly a million tons from 2023, and costs were down about a dollar per ton resulting in EBITDA margins of 35%. The segment generated over $350 million of free cash flow.

全年海運熱能運輸部門調整後息稅折舊攤提前利潤 (EBITDA) 為 4.3 億美元。與 2023 年相比，出貨量增加了近 100 萬噸，成本每噸下降約 1 美元，EBITDA 利潤率達到 35%。該部門產生了超過3.5億美元的自由現金流。

The seaborne met segment reported $23 million of adjusted EBITDA in the fourth quarter. Shipments increased 500,000 tons compared to the third quarter in line with expectations. Cost per ton improved by a better than expected 12% due to higher than anticipated production at Shoal Creek as well as a weaker ASD.

海運農產品部門第四季調整後息稅折舊攤提前利潤 (EBITDA) 為 2,300 萬美元。出貨量較第三季增加50萬噸，符合預期。由於 Shoal Creek 的產量高於預期以及 ASD 較弱，每噸成本改善幅度超出預期，達到 12%。

This was partly offset by lower production at Coppabella.

這在一定程度上被科帕貝拉 (Coppabella) 產量的下降所抵消。

The average realized price was down about $21 per ton compared to last quarter due to a higher mix of Shoal Creek sales.

由於 Shoal Creek 銷售組合較高，平均實現價格與上一季相比下降了約每噸 21 美元。

We also saw benchmark prices for PCI and high-vol coal each down about $15 a ton quarter-over-quarter. For the full year the seaborne met segment reported $243 million of adjusted EBITDA shipments increased 400,000 tons year over year to $7.3 million.

我們還發現，PCI 煤和高揮發性煤的基準價格比上一季分別下降了約 15 美元/噸。全年海運肉品部門調整後 EBITDA 出貨量為 2.43 億美元，較去年同期成長 40 萬噸，達到 730 萬美元。

The segment achieved EBITDA margins of 15% a favourable result considering that market prices pushed realizations down $44 per ton in the year.

考慮到市場價格導致當年的實現價格下降了 44 美元/噸，該部門的 EBITDA 利潤率仍達到 15%，這是一個不錯的結果。

Switching to US thermal, the mines generated $93 million of adjusted EBITDA in the fourth quarter and that resulted in $72 million of free cash flow.

轉向美國熱能後，該礦在第四季度產生了 9,300 萬美元的調整後 EBITDA，並產生了 7,200 萬美元的自由現金流。

PRB mines shipped 23 million tons. Well ahead of expectations.

PRB礦山出貨量為2,300萬噸。遠遠超出預期。

Continued operational discipline kept costs at $1,150 per ton the same as last quarter. And that let us maintain the same 17% margins in the fourth quarter and generate $53 million of adjusted EBITDA.

持續的營運紀律使成本保持在每噸 1,150 美元，與上一季相同。這使得我們在第四季度保持了相同的 17% 的利潤率，並產生了 5,300 萬美元的調整後 EBITDA。

The other us thermal mines delivered $41 million of adjusted EBITDA.

其他美國熱礦的調整後 EBITDA 為 4,100 萬美元。

In the Midwest. We reached contractual agreements with certain customers to offset lower 2024 shipments. Production was 200,000 tons less than expected as the previously disclosed geological conditions at Twentymile required us to step the long wall around a rock lens.

在中西部。我們與某些客戶達成了合約協議，以抵消 2024 年出貨量的下降。由於先前揭露的 Twentymile 地質條件要求我們繞過岩石透鏡修建長壁，因此產量比預期少了 20 萬噸。

We've turned the corner on that issue and longwall production recently resumed with the mindset for a strong 2025.

我們已經解決了這個問題，並於近期恢復了長壁生產，目標是實現 2025 年的強勁成長。

Together, the US thermal mines produced $289 million of adjusted EBITDA in 2024 and required just $54 million of capital resulting in $235 million of free cash flow.

2024 年，美國熱礦的調整後 EBITDA 總計為 2.89 億美元，僅需 5,400 萬美元的資本，就產生了 2.35 億美元的自由現金流。

The last comment I'll make on Q4 results relates to other operating costs. We recorded a $41 million non-cash charge for the remeasurement of our Australian balance sheet at year end due to a lower AUD exchange rate. The weaker AUD benefited operating costs throughout the quarter providing a bit of a built-in natural hedge to earnings.

我對第四季度業績的最後一點評論涉及其他營運成本。由於澳元匯率較低，我們在年底重新計量澳洲資產負債表時記錄了 4,100 萬美元的非現金費用。澳元走弱有利於整個季度的營運成本，為盈利提供了一點內在的自然對沖。

But as the AUD weakened throughout the quarter, the period end remeasurement resulted in a significant net negative impact to Q4 EBITDA.

但由於澳元在整個季度都走弱，期末重新計量對第四季的 EBITDA 產生了顯著的淨負面影響。

Looking ahead to 2025. I'll briefly review guidance for the full year.

展望2025年。我將簡要回顧全年的指導。

We see that some analysts are including the Anglo acquisition in their 2025 estimates for Peabody. But our guidance excludes contributions until the transaction is complete. This year seaborne thermal volumes are expected to be lower than 2024 due to reduced production at Wilpinjong and the closing of the Wambo underground mine mid-year, which will be partly offset by higher production from Wambo surface operations.

我們看到，一些分析師將英美資源集團的收購納入了 Peabody 的 2025 年預測。但我們的指導意見不包括交易完成前的貢獻。由於 Wilpinjong 產量下降以及 Wambo 地下礦在年中關閉，預計今年的海運熱量將低於 2024 年，但 Wambo 地面作業產量的增加將部分抵消這一影響。

Additionally, domestic cost plus sales requirements are down another 400,000 tons in 2025 allowing us to achieve export pricing on that volume.

此外，到 2025 年，國內成本加銷售需求將再下降 40 萬噸，從而使我們能夠實現該數量的出口定價。

Shipments are targeted to be 14.7 million tons including 9.3 million export tons. Costs are projected to be consistent with 2024 levels at $47 to $52 per ton.

出口目標為1470萬噸，其中出口930萬噸。預計成本將與 2024 年的水準保持一致，為每噸 47 至 52 美元。

Seaborne metallurgical volumes are projected to increase over 1 million tons to 8.5 million tons. Primarily due to higher volume at Shoal Creek and the continued ramp up at Centurion.

海運冶金貨物量預計增加超過100萬噸，達到850萬噸。主要是由於 Shoal Creek 的產量增加以及 Centurion 的產量持續增加。

This occurs even as we work through the high wall stability challenges at Coppabella as we reconfigure the mind for an optimal long-term solution. Segment costs are targeted at $120 to $130 per ton in line with last year. In the PRB, we are forecasting shipments between 72 million and 78 million tons and currently have 71 million tons priced at $13.85.

當我們重新調整思維以找到最佳的長期解決方案時，即使我們努力克服 Coppabella 的高牆穩定性挑戰，這種情況也會發生。該部門成本目標為每噸 120 至 130 美元，與去年持平。在 PRB 中，我們預測出貨量在 7,200 萬至 7,800 萬噸之間，目前 7,100 萬噸的價格為 13.85 美元。

Costs are expected to remain mostly flat with 2024 levels at $12 to $12.75 per ton.

預計成本將基本保持不變，2024 年的水準為每噸 12 至 12.75 美元。

Other us, thermal volumes are expected to be about 14 million tons. We have 13.6 million tons priced at $52 and expect costs in the range of $43 to $47 per ton consistent with last year. Total capital expenditures for 2025 are estimated at $450 million including $280 million in project capital primarily for the continued development of Centurion.

其他美國熱量預計約1400萬噸。我們有 1,360 萬噸，價格為 52 美元，預計成本在每噸 43 至 47 美元之間，與去年持平。2025 年的總資本支出預計為 4.5 億美元，其中包括 2.8 億美元的專案資本，主要用於 Centurion 的持續開發。

In summary, we delivered on our 2024 goals.

總而言之，我們達成了 2024 年的目標。

We remain committed to financial discipline and growing free cash flow per share.

我們將繼續致力於財務紀律和增加每股自由現金流。

2025 promises to be a busy year that will be shaped by the Anglo acquisition, advancing Centurion and US policy. For more on that I'll turn the call back to Jim.

2025 年必定是繁忙的一年，這一年將受到英美資源集團收購、Centurion 業務推進和美國政策的影響。如需了解更多信息，我將把電話轉給吉姆。

Thanks Mark. I'll turn briefly to Peabody's main focus areas for the new year.

謝謝馬克。我將簡要介紹皮博迪在新年的主要關注領域。

It's fair to say that we begin 2025 with an ambitious agenda.

可以說，我們以雄心勃勃的議程開啟了 2025 年。

Our first focus is an every year item, the relentless pursuit of safe, productive and environmentally sound operations.

我們的首要關注點是每年的項目，即不懈追求安全、高效和環保的營運。

Our second focus this year is to continue to ramp up the flagships and [turn] mine on time and on budget.

我們今年的第二個重點是繼續擴大旗艦產品並按時、在預算內完成我的產品。

I'm pleased to report that development is running ahead of schedule and all systems are go for our planned longwall start up early next year.

我很高興地向大家報告，開發工作正在提前進行，所有系統都已準備就緒，我們計劃在明年初啟動長壁開採。

Our third priority is to complete our premium hard coking coal acquisition, which together with Centurion will transform Peabody's product and financial profile.

我們的第三項任務是完成優質硬焦煤的收購，該收購將與 Centurion 一起改變 Peabody 的產品和財務狀況。

Priority number four is to serve growing Asian thermal coal demand through our low cost Australian export platform with longer term mine extensions [teed] up.

第四大優先事項是透過我們低成本的澳洲出口平台以及長期的礦井延伸來滿足亞洲日益增長的動力煤需求。

It's no surprise that the International Energy Agency recently reported that last year the world used a record amount of coal 8.77 billion metric tons representing more than one ton for every man woman and child on earth.

毫不奇怪，國際能源總署最近報告稱，去年全球煤炭消耗量達到創紀錄的 87.7 億公噸，相當於地球上每個男人、女人和兒童消耗一噸以上。

IEA also projects that global coal use will continue to grow for the next several years.

國際能源總署也預測未來幾年全球煤炭消費量將持續成長。

Our fifth priority is to leverage our low cost US coal production to capitalize on emerging favourable policy and commercial themes. And that dynamic continues to unfold as we speak.

我們的第五個重點是利用美國低成本的煤炭生產來利用新興的有利政策和商業主題。正如我們所說，這種動態仍在繼續展開。

And finally, we work every day to enhance long term cash flow per share creation.

最後，我們每天都在努力提高每股長期現金流的創造。

While the actions we are undertaking today are enhancing our shareholder value proposition in three areas, earnings growth, sustainable shareholder returns and multiples expansion over time.

我們今天採取的行動正在三個方面增強我們的股東價值主張，即獲利成長、可持續股東回報和隨著時間的推移的倍數擴張。

And it's fair to say that our share price is reflecting none of the potential uplift in valuation from our recent actions.

公平地說，我們的股價並未反映出我們最近的行動所帶來的估值潛在提升。

I've never been more optimistic about the prospects for Peabody and look forward to seeing those positive actions translate into tangible share price appreciation as we continue to execute.

我對 Peabody 的前景從未如此樂觀，並期待看到隨著我們繼續執行，這些積極行動能夠轉化為實際的股價升值。

Operator, we're now ready to take questions.

接線員，我們現在可以回答問題了。

We will now begin the question and answer session. (Operator Instructions)

我們現在開始問答環節。（操作員指令）

Nick Giles, B Riley Securities.

尼克吉爾斯 (Nick Giles)，B Riley Securities。

Thank you, Operator. Good morning, everyone. My first question is around the pre-emption rights process. I was wondering if you could add any colour around what those conversations have looked like, and I had the same question for any potential stake sale. Is, is there a preference for incremental stakes in the Anglo assets versus any stake at Centurion? Thank you very much.

謝謝您，接線生。大家早安。我的第一個問題是關於優先購買權流程的。我想知道您是否可以對這些對話做一些補充說明，對於任何潛在的股權出售，我也有同樣的疑問。相對於 Centurion 的任何股份，是否更傾向於增加 Anglo 資產的股份？非常感謝。

Hey, Nick, good morning, Jim Greg here. You know, on the, on the pre-emption question that is part of any sales process. It's a typical contract term when you have joint venture partners. It's progressing well, the timeline for the deadlines on it is sometime in mid-March, we expect that to the deadline to come and pass and we'll move forward with the closing of the of the transaction.

嘿，尼克，早安，我是吉姆·格雷格。您知道，關於先發制人的問題，這是任何銷售過程的一部分。當您有合資夥伴時，這是一個典型的合約條款。進展順利，截止日期是三月中旬左右，我們預計截止日期將到來並順利完成交易。

On the on the asset sales. Could you again ask that question again? So, I'm sure we respond to it correctly.

關於資產出售。你能再問一次這個問題嗎？因此我確信我們會做出正確的回應。

Yeah, thanks Jim. That's, very helpful and just on the asset sales, I was wondering if there would be a preference for additional stakes at the Anglo assets versus one at Centurion.

是的，謝謝吉姆。這非常有幫助，僅就資產出售而言，我想知道是否人們更傾向於在 Anglo 資產中增加股份，而不是在 Centurion 資產中增加股份。

Nick. You know, we would if anybody, if the discussions lead to fair value, full value offers on the asset sales, we look at some minority sales in those assets, whether it's with the Anglo assets or Centurion. So, we are anticipating that to be part of the financing process that we have here for the acquisition and some of those steps have been undertaken already and, but you know, it's too early to call. What if any would be the results of that?

缺口。你知道，如果有人討論得出資產出售的公允價值和全額報價，我們就會考慮對這些資產進行少數股權出售，無論是 Anglo 資產還是 Centurion 資產。因此，我們預計這將成為我們此次收購融資流程的一部分，並且其中一些步驟已經採取，但是您知道，現在下結論還為時過早。如果有的話，結果會怎樣？

Got it. Jim, that's very helpful. Shifting gears, met guidance of 8.5 million tons at the midpoint. I assume around 0.5 million tons could come from Centurion. But how should we think about bridging from the 2024 level to 2025 guidance? And, and then similarly, on the cost side, costs are up at the midpoint versus 2024. So how should we, how abridge those as well? Thank you very much.

知道了。吉姆，這非常有幫助。換檔，達到中點850萬噸的指導目標。我估計大約有 50 萬噸可能來自 Centurion。但是，我們應該如何考慮從 2024 年的水準過渡到 2025 年的指導目標呢？同樣，在成本方面，與 2024 年相比，中期成本有所上升。那我們該如何、如何縮短這些呢？非常感謝。

Good morning, Nick. And welcome to the call. I read your note this morning and, and you look like your model was perfect. So, congratulations. I think you're doing a better job than Lucas already in your first all. But and I say that tongue in cheek, I'm sure Lucas is listening in. So, to answer your question Seaborne Met, You're right, we're up over 1 million tons and about 500,000 more year over year as at Centurion. Shoal Creek is also up about 600,000 tons. So that's the data there as far as costs go, we are forecasting 120 to 130 full year and 24 is 123. So pretty consistent. I'd say there's two things that may need it to be a bit higher and that is one that mentioned, my, we're resetting Coppabella for optimal long-term solution. We're going to be moving more waste about 6 million bank cubic meters more year over year. And don't forget we had a pretty weak AUD as well in 2024.

早安，尼克。歡迎來電。我今天早上讀了你的筆記，你的模型看起來非常完美。所以，恭喜你。我認為你第一次做的時候就已經比盧卡斯做得更好了。但我雖然是開玩笑地說，但我相信盧卡斯肯定在聽。因此，回答您的問題 Seaborne Met，您說得對，我們的產量增加了 100 多萬噸，與 Centurion 相比，產量同比增長了約 50 萬噸。Shoal Creek 的產量也增加了約 60 萬噸。所以這就是成本方面的數據，我們預測全年成本為 120 至 130，24 年為 123。相當一致。我想說有兩件事可能需要把它提高一點，那就是提到的一件事，我們正在重置 Coppabella 以獲得最佳的長期解決方案。與去年同期相比，我們將多處理約 600 萬立方公尺的垃圾。別忘了，2024 年澳元也相當疲軟。

Mark. I appreciate all the colour to you and the team continue. Best of luck.

標記。我感謝您和團隊繼續給予我們支持。祝你好運。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Nathan Martin, The Benchmark Company.

內森馬丁 (Nathan Martin)，The Benchmark Company。

Thanks, operator. Good morning, everyone.

謝謝，接線生。大家早安。

Good morning, Nathan.

早安，內森。

Maybe just one more question on the Anglo acquisition. You know, you guys mentioned several regulatory approvals have come already. What's left anything there from the standpoint that could hold you guys up beyond that targeted 2Q closing.

也許我只想問一個有關 Anglo 收購的問題。你知道，你們提到已經獲得了多項監管部門的批准。從這個角度來看，還有哪些因素可能會阻礙你們達成第二季的收官目標？

And Nathan, we've have some in this, in the rest are in process and you know, the various international ones and I think we have one left in Australia. The initial indications is, is everything is going just fine with them. And the timing on those regulatory approvals is anywhere from later in February to maybe end of March, first week of April so, it spans that time frame. So just like with the pre-emption’s, we just got to work through the process. There's a time frame involved. We're stepping through it and right now everything looks, looks good to us, Nathan.

內森，我們已經有一些了，其餘的都在進行中，你知道，各種國際的，我想我們還在澳洲有一個。最初的跡象表明，他們的一切都進展順利。這些監管部門的批准時間可能是在二月底到三月底或四月第一週之間，所以它跨越了這個時間範圍。因此，就像先發制人一樣，我們只需完成整個流程。其中有一個時間框架。我們正在逐步解決它，現在一切都看起來很好，內森。

That sounds good, Jim. And then maybe coming back to the pre-emption or really just the minority interest sales is your preference changed at all or you know, how should we think about the balance between minority interest sales and debt for the transaction?

聽起來不錯，吉姆。然後也許回到優先購買權，或者實際上只是少數股權銷售，您的偏好是否有所改變，或者您知道，我們應該如何考慮少數股權銷售和交易債務之間的平衡？

Well, I'll just have a comment on the sales process and then I'll let Mark get to some of the details. But you know, as I said, we, we've started the beginning of looking at potential minority sales positions in the Anglo assets in Centurion. And we've had some very robust interest in the assets coming from many different sectors in the US, Australian and International. So, again, I'm not going to sit here and predict what's going to happen because everything is in negotiation, but I will say that been very robust interest at the beginning here of this process.

好吧，我只想對銷售流程發表一些評論，然後讓馬克介紹一些細節。但你知道，正如我所說的，我們已經開始研究在 Centurion 的 Anglo 資產中潛在的少數股權銷售地位。我們對來自美國、澳洲和國際不同領域的資產有著濃厚的興趣。因此，我再說一次，我不會坐在這裡預測接下來會發生什麼，因為一切都在談判中，但我要說的是，在這個過程開始時，人們的興趣非常濃厚。

Nathan not a lot has changed from when we announced the transaction and our plans for the permanent financing. The $1.7 billion upfront payment, we expect to be, funded. You know, primarily with that, the lion's share being high yield secured notes. You know, we've talked about the project level equity of the minority stake sales as being another key option there. And as Jim mentioned, those discussions are underway. You know, the timing as well as magnitude of those sell downs become factors here. And then lastly, we, potentially round out with convertible notes or other financing. So not a lot's changed. I will say that that process is underway. It's going well in the early stages, there's strong inbound interest, we continue to test market capacity. And we're highly confident we'll arrange the financing along the lines we originally announced.

內森，自從我們宣布交易和永久融資計劃以來，並沒有發生太大的變化。我們預計將獲得 17 億美元的預付款。您知道，其中最主要的是，最大的份額是高收益擔保票據。您知道，我們已經討論過少數股權銷售的專案級股權是另一個關鍵選擇。正如吉姆所提到的，這些討論正在進行中。您知道，這些拋售的時間和幅度都成為影響因素。最後，我們可能會採用可轉換票據或其他融資方式來完善。因此沒有太大的改變。我想說的是，這個過程正在進行中。早期階段進展順利，吸引了濃厚的興趣，我們將繼續測試市場容量。我們非常有信心我們將按照最初宣布的方式安排融資。

And Mark any commentary around potentially needing to issue common equity. I know that's a question investors are focused on.

並標記有關可能需要發行普通股的任何評論。我知道這是投資人關注的問題。

Yeah, I I'd probably, I'd echo Jim's comments that, reflect our belief that a lot of the value in Peabody and the pending acquisition are not currently reflected in our share price. Unfortunately, we don't get to pick the time when these types of assets become available and we recognize, spot coal prices are down. But we didn't buy these multi decade assets for short term changes in spot prices, which can influence the coal equities. Our number one goal remains to enhance shareholder value and you do that by increasing free cash flow per share.

是的，我可能會同意吉姆的評論，這反映了我們的信念，即皮博迪和即將進行的收購的許多價值目前尚未反映在我們的股價中。不幸的是，我們無法選擇這些類型的資產何時可用，而且我們認識到現貨煤炭價格正在下跌。但我們購買這些數十年的資產並不是為了現貨價格的短期變化，因為這會影響煤炭股票。我們的首要目標仍然是提高股東價值，而實現這一目標的方法是增加每股自由現金流。

We when we stimulate free cash flow out of the acquisition, our P 50 case without [grosvenor] results in over $800 million of free cash flow in the initial five years after all of the deferred and price contingent consideration, effectively paying one half of that initial consideration off leaving us with a very manageable permanent debt slice of the capital stack and a significantly higher free cash flow base to provide sustainable shareholder returns.

當我們從收購中刺激自由現金流時，我們的 P 50 案例（不包括 [格羅夫納]）在扣除所有遞延和價格或有對價後的最初五年內產生了超過 8 億美元的自由現金流，有效地支付了一半的初始對價，使我們擁有非常易於管理的資本堆棧永久債務部分和顯著更高的自由現金流，以提供更高的自由現金流的股東基礎回報。

So, we recognize the need to, to appreciate the volatility and Seaborne coal prices and remain prudent to ensure financial resiliency, you know, throughout the price cycle, so we can execute the strategy. You know, coal equities have all traded down since the announcement. And we're going to take a good hard look at it. It's the last on our priority list. But we have all the tools in the kit, and we continue to assess what the market will provide.

因此，我們認識到需要了解波動性和海運煤炭價格，並在整個價格週期內保持謹慎以確保財務彈性，以便我們可以執行該策略。你知道，自從消息發布以來，煤炭股票全部下跌。我們將認真研究這個問題。這是我們優先清單中的最後一項。但我們擁有所有的工具，並將繼續評估市場將提供什麼。

Great, appreciate those thoughts guys and then maybe just one final, don't leave Malcolm out. I know you touched on this briefly and you prepared your marks, but coming back to China's new 15% tariff on US coal imports. Obviously, the bulk of Peabody's export sales come from Australia. But you know, how do you see that tariff potentially impacting your business as well as the Seaborne markets in general?

太好了，感謝大家的想法，也許最後還有一句話，不要把馬爾科姆排除在外。我知道您剛才簡要談及了這一點並做好了準備，但回到中國對美國煤炭進口徵收 15% 的新關稅的話題。顯然，皮博迪的出口銷售額大部分來自澳洲。但您知道，您認為該關稅將如何影響您的業務以及整個海運市場？

Yeah, look, one thing with the markets is they're a little bit like a balloon. If you push something in one spot, it comes out somewhere else. And so, you know, US exports are getting pushed here in terms of their price competitiveness into Asia. And for us, we've got about 600,000 tons of product that went to China last year. And that would mean that if we did nothing and continued supplying to China, we would have a 15% lower price. And it really doesn't help when that's the clearing level and that's your alternative because other customers now, when you look to sell to them in Asia will be looking at what that alternative is. It's positive for Australia. In the sense that Australia becomes more and more competitive in Asia, which is the growth base for met coal demand. But for us, it's probably not such a big issue, but I would have liked to have seen this happen. But look, the markets will readjust maybe there maybe more product go to US, product, go to India and more Australian product to go to China to balance that out or, more US product to Europe and less Australian product to Europe, the market will work that out. But to deal with that, we need some price signals and the price signals to make that readjustment could be a little bit painful in terms of our Shoal Creek returns over the next quarter or so. But look, let's wait and see how it all plays out. But hopefully that's given you my perspective on it.

是的，你看，市場有點像氣球。如果你將某物推到某個地方，它就會從其他地方出來。所以你知道，從價格競爭力的角度來看，美國出口在亞洲正受到推動。就我們而言，去年約有 60 萬噸產品銷往中國。這意味著，如果我們不採取任何行動並繼續向中國供貨，我們的價格將會降低 15%。當這是清算水平並且這是你的選擇時，這實際上沒有幫助，因為現在當你想向亞洲的其他客戶銷售產品時，他們會考慮這個替代方案是什麼。這對澳洲來說是件好事。從某種意義上說，澳洲在亞洲的競爭力越來越強，而亞洲是煤炭需求的成長基礎。但對我們來說，這可能不是什麼大問題，但我希望看到這種情況發生。但是，市場將會重新調整，也許會有更多的產品銷往美國，更多的產品銷往印度，而更多的澳洲產品銷往中國，以平衡這一局面，或者更多的美國產品銷往歐洲，而更少的澳洲產品銷往歐洲，市場將會解決這個問題。但為了解決這個問題，我們需要一些價格訊號，而對於未來一個季度左右的 Shoal Creek 回報而言，做出這種調整的價格訊號可能會有點痛苦。不過，讓我們拭目以待，看看事情將如何發展。但希望這能讓您了解我的看法。

That's great. And just to clarify now from the 600,000 tons to China, is that from Shoal Creek you're referring to specifically?

那太棒了。現在需要澄清的是，您提到的運往中國的 60 萬噸貨物是否專門指從 Shoal Creek 運往中國？

Yeah, that's Shoal Creek.

是啊，就是 Shoal Creek。

Okay, got it. Appreciate the time guys and best of luck in '25.

好的，明白了。感謝大家的時間，祝福大家 25 年好運。

Thanks Nathan.

謝謝內森。

Katja Jancic, BMO capital markets.

Katja Jancic，BMO資本市場。

Hi. Thank you for taking my questions. Maybe going back to the met coal cost guide. Can you talk a bit more about how much Coppabella is negatively impacting costs? Because I would assume with production higher in general and met coal prices lower, the cost should still be trending more positively or lower.

你好。感謝您回答我的問題。也許可以回到冶金煤成本指南。您能否進一步談談 Coppabella 對成本產生的負面影響有多大？因為我認為，隨著產量整體上升和煤​​炭價格下降，成本應該仍會呈現出更積極或更低的趨勢。

Katja two things. One you know, for Q1, we are guiding a little bit higher than the full year on a rate basis. You know, Q4, we turned in much better than expected and anticipated at only 113. But we think that Q1 we know will be impacted by a long wall move at Shoal Creek. So, a little bit higher than rateable in Q1 for the full year, we've put our guidance at 120 to 130 2024 came in at 123. You know, and as I mentioned before, it's really just moving those additional 6 million BCMS. And the really weak AUD throughout 2024 particularly in the back half of the year. That's driving the difference. Otherwise, we see them pretty consistent. And really, we don't see any significant inflation or other issues. So that's really the story. Does that help?

卡佳（Katja）有兩件事。您知道，對於第一季，我們預計利率將比全年略高一些。您知道，第四季度我們的成績比預期好得多，僅為 113。但我們認為，我們知道 Q1 將受到 Shoal Creek 長牆移動的影響。因此，與第一季的全年預期相比，我們將其預期定為 120 至 130，而 2024 年的預期為 123。你知道，正如我之前提到的，這實際上只是轉移額外的 600 萬 BCMS。2024 年全年澳元將持續走弱，尤其是下半年。這就是造成差異的原因。否則，我們發現它們相當一致。事實上，我們並沒有看到任何嚴重的通貨膨脹或其他問題。故事就是這樣的。這樣有幫助嗎？

No, that's helpful. Thank you. And then maybe the there were some reports that the [doll] rental port was impacted by weather. Are you seeing any impact from that quarter to date? And is are there any issues with production? Given the weather currently in Australia.

不，這很有幫助。謝謝。然後也許有報導[娃娃]租賃港受到天氣影響。從該季度至今，您是否看到任何影響？生產方面有什麼問題嗎？考慮到澳洲目前的天氣。

Hi, Katja, Malcolm Here. Look, this is pretty normal. A monsoonal trough has come over Queensland probably 10 days ago and moved from the north of Queensland to the south. And so, over the past week, Byron Pool Bay's received around 400 millimetres of rain and most of the rain has remained coastal. What that means is that the ability to stack coal or reclaim coal when it's very wet with rain? Is very limited. So, there has been outages at the port and there has been like a let's call it a seven-day interruption. But I view that as very short term. In terms of our mines, we have had a little bit of seasonal rain there but nothing, that's created a remarkable interruption at this stage.

你好，卡佳，我是馬爾科姆。看，這很正常。大約 10 天前，季風低壓槽襲擊了昆士蘭州，並從昆士蘭州北部向南部移動。過去一周，拜倫灣的降雨量約為 400 毫米，且大部分降雨都集中在沿海地區。這是否意味著當雨水過多時，煤炭仍有可能被堆放或回收？十分有限。因此，港口出現了停電，可以說是停電了七天。但我認為這只是短期現象。就我們的礦場而言，那裡出現了一點季節性降雨，但沒有什麼影響，這在現階段沒有造成嚴重的中斷。

Okay. Thank you again. (Operator Instructions). Chris LaFemina, Jefferies.

好的。再次感謝您。（操作員指令）。傑富瑞的克里斯拉菲米納 (Chris LaFemina)。

Thanks, operator. Hey guys. Thanks for taking my question. So, I wanted to ask about the thermal coal segments. If we look at the 2025 guidance, it's basically lower volumes and probably lower margins. I mean costs are flattish and prices are going to be down.

謝謝，接線生。嘿，大家好。感謝您回答我的問題。所以，我想問一下有關動力煤部分的問題。如果我們看一下2025年的指引，基本上產量會更低，利潤率也可能更低。我的意思是成本持平，價格將會下降。

I think costs appear to be actually expected to be up. But I wanted to kind of understand where the thermal segments will be heading after 2025. So, it's helpful that we have, you've given us guidance for 2026 on costs and we and obviously on volumes as well. But with thermal coal heading because see one thermal volumes have been heading lower, PRB obviously heading lower and it's hard to offset the negative impact of fixed cost leverage when you have declining volume. So, we're looking at thermal coal business that's going to have a flat to rising cost base and declining volumes. And then the EBITDA upside really just depends on higher prices or is there anything else going on there that could lead to margin expansion and EBITDA growth without prices going up?

我認為成本似乎確實預計會上漲。但我想了解 2025 年以後熱能市場的發展方向。因此，您為我們提供了 2026 年成本的指導，當然還有產量方面的指導，這很有幫助。但是隨著動力煤的走向，由於動力煤的產量一直在下降，PRB 顯然也在下降，而且在產量下降的情況下很難抵消固定成本槓桿的負面影響。因此，我們預期動力煤業務的成本基礎將持平或上升，而產量將下降。那麼 EBITDA 的成長實際上僅僅取決於更高的價格，還是還有其他因素可以在價格不上漲的情況下導致利潤率擴大和 EBITDA 成長？

Yeah, Chris, I'll comment on the US platform and then Mark and maybe Malcolm can give you some comments on the Australian platform. On the US platform. You know, the PRB tonnages, we have the ability to move those tons up and down. And, you know, some of the forecast that you see, maybe we're pre all of the momentum we're getting currently here within the last few months in the US market. With the, you know, the Trump administration, the strong push for reliability and keeping coal plants open the load growth.

是的，克里斯，我將對美國平台發表評論，然後馬克和馬爾科姆也許可以對澳洲平台給你一些評論。在美國平台。您知道，對於 PRB 噸位，我們有能力將這些噸位調高或調低。而且，您知道，您看到的一些預測可能是我們在過去幾個月內在美國市場獲得的所有勢頭的預兆。你知道，在川普政府的強力推動下，煤炭發電廠的可靠性和運作負載成長受到了抑制。

And so in the US, if the market demands are there, which we think, those tail ones are certainly getting much stronger. We can certainly respond with the tonnages in the PRB, of course, we'll also maintain some pricing discipline on that as well to do that. So, in the US I would say the tonnages that you see any decreases made are based on market assumptions and not the physical asset base.

因此在美國，如果市場需求存在，我們認為，尾部需求肯定會變得更加強勁。我們當然可以用 PRB 中的噸位來回應，當然，我們也會對此保持一些定價紀律。因此，在美國，我想說任何減少的噸位都是基於市場假設而不是實體資產基礎。

So with that, I'll let the other guys talk about the Australian platform.

因此，我將讓其他人來談論澳洲平台。

Yeah. Good morning, Chris. Just, briefly on Seaborne thermal. You know, we're down you know, this year, year-over-year. And we kind of talked a bit about this last quarter but to just to re-emphasize, I mean, we pulled, about 200,000 tons for the Wambo Underground in the fourth quarter and really beaten Seaborne thermal in the fourth quarter. You know, we've already announced that Underground will cease the operations mid-year. So, we're going to be down about 800,000 tons year-over-year at the Wambo underground for comparison purposes.

是的。早上好，克里斯。只是簡單介紹一下 Seaborne thermal。你知道，今年我們的業績年減。我們在上個季度討論過這個問題，但為了再次強調，我的意思是，我們在第四季度為 Wambo Underground 運送了大約 20 萬噸，並且在第四季度真正擊敗了 Seaborne Thermal。你知道，我們已經宣布過 Underground 將在年中停止營運。因此，為了進行比較，Wambo 地下礦的產量將比去年同期減少約 80 萬噸。

And Wilpinjong is declining as well, about 1 million and million four tons, partially offset by the Wambo open cut, which we expect to be up 10% maybe another 300,000 tons there. So that's really the delta year-over-year. And you know, going forward, we haven't provided any guidance beyond 2025 except for what we anticipate from the acquisition. Just to put a marker out there. So, we haven't given any Peabody guidance. You know, we talked about this in the past the Wilpinjong production, you know, continues to decline until we open up pit nine and 10 an extension a few years out. But along with that is a continued decline in the domestic ton requirements.

Wilpinjong 的產量也在下降，約 104 萬噸，部分被 Wambo 露天礦的產量所抵消，我們預計那裡的產量將上漲 10%，或許還能再增加 30 萬噸。所以這實際上是同比變化。您知道，展望未來，除了收購預期外，我們沒有提供 2025 年以後的任何指導。只是為了在那裡做個標記。所以，我們沒有給皮博迪任何指導。您知道，我們過去談到過這個問題，Wilpinjong 的產量會持續下降，直到我們幾年後開放九號和十號礦坑並進行延伸。但同時，國內噸位需求也持續下降。

So I think this year, you know, we're probably looking at a net a little over 5 million tons of export out of Wilpinjong. And I think over the next five years, you're going to see something pretty close to that about 4.8 to 5 on average. So, I really see that being pretty consistent and then, as Jim mentioned, the US piece is really just a demand driven.

所以我認為，今年威爾平瓊的淨出口量可能略高於 500 萬噸。我認為，在未來五年內，你將看到接近這個水準的成長率，平均約為 4.8 到 5。因此，我確實看到這是相當一致的，然後，正如吉姆所提到的，美國部分實際上只是需求驅動。

Okay? Thanks for that. And just secondly, on [grosvenor], I think Anglo had some comments this morning about having put some cameras down in the mine and they saw a limited damage, which is pretty encouraging actually. And I think seems like there's potential for that to maybe come online a bit sooner than people had expected based on what's been discovered so far. Just could you comment on, your understanding of what's happening there and what your thought is about the potential we start for that asset in terms of timing, etc. Thank you.

好的？謝謝。其次，關於 [格羅夫納]，我認為英美資源集團今早曾表示，他們在礦井中放置了一些攝影機，他們發現損失有限，這實際上是非常令人鼓舞的。我認為，根據目前的發現，這種技術可能比人們預期的更早實現。您能否評論一下，您對那裡發生的事情的理解以及您對我們在時間方面啟動該資產的潛力的看法，等等。

Yeah, Chris, we that's encouraging news to hear that, you just mentioned about the with the Anglo stated, we're really not in a good position to start putting out estimates of when we'll open that mine back up and the costs to do that until we get ownership of it and can really see the conditions first hand. So I will say that, we do have optimism that we'll be able to do that based on what we've been able to do with the Centurion mine, the experience we have and the work we have with the regulators.

是的，克里斯，聽到這個消息我們感到很振奮，你剛才提到英美資源集團表示，在我們獲得礦山所有權並親眼看到礦山情況之前，我們真的無法預估何時能夠重新開採該礦以及開採成本。所以我要說的是，我們確實有信心，基於我們在 Centurion 礦場所所做的工作、我們的經驗以及我們與監管機構的合作，我們能夠做到這一點。

We certainly are well positioned to bring that mine back online, but we're not at a point where we're going to start giving out estimates on time line or cost or anything. It's just a little, a little too early for us because we just don't have enough information to do that yet.

我們確實有能力讓該礦恢復生產，但我們目前還不會給出時間表、成本或其他方面的估算。對我們來說這還為時過早，因為我們還沒有足夠的資訊來做到這一點。

Understood. Thank you and good luck.

明白了。謝謝你，祝你好運。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Nick Giles

尼克·吉爾斯

Thank you very much operator. Mark maybe in response to your earlier comments, you outperformed my model pretty meaningfully in the PRB. So, I'm sure Lucas took notice of that, but wanted to come back to Shoal Creek. It seems like production was stronger there, but I wanted to get your take on kind of where, where realizations are today and maybe bigger picture, where does this asset fit in your portfolio longer term? And could a sale of the asset be an additional lever you could pull in the case of permanent financing.

非常感謝操作員。馬克，也許是為了回應你先前的評論，你在 PRB 中的表現相當顯著地超越了我的模型。所以，我確信盧卡斯注意到了這一點，但他想回到淺灘溪。看起來那裡的生產能力更強，但我想聽聽你對目前的實現情況的看法，以及更大的圖景，這項資產在你的長期投資組合中處於什麼位置？在永久融資的情況下，資產出售是否可以成為你可以利用的額外槓桿？

I'll start and then maybe Malcolm can talk about realizations a bit more. But yeah, Shoal Creek is really operating extremely well. You know, did a great, great year, we expect even better things in 2025 as I noted earlier. So operationally it's hitting on all cylinders doing absolutely everything that we anticipated they would do with the new longwall kit. You know, realizations have been a bit of a challenge. But maybe Malcolm, you want to add a little colour to that.

我先開始，然後馬爾科姆也許可以再多談一些實現情況。不過，Shoal Creek 確實運作得非常好。你知道，這是非常棒的一年，正如我之前提到的，我們期待 2025 年會取得更好的成績。因此從操作上來說，他們全力以赴，完全按照我們預期的那樣，使用新的長壁開採套件完成所有工作。你知道，實現這一點有點困難。但是也許馬爾科姆，你想為此添加一點色彩。

Yeah, look sure. Last call I did give a sort of a breakdown as to where those Asian realizations are and obviously with Europe, not as strong for us. At the moment, a lot of our returns are coming from Asia. And at the moment, to be honest, you, you're talking an FOB return on a short-term basis of, somewhere between $120 and $130 for that greater product. That's where the price point is. If you're selling into Asia.

是的，看起來確定。最後一次，我確實對這些亞洲國家的實現情況進行了某種分析，顯然歐洲的實現情況對我們來說並不那麼強烈。目前，我們的許多回報都來自亞洲。目前，老實說，您談論的是短期內該優質產品的離岸價回報在 120 美元到 130 美元之間。這就是價格點所在。如果您的產品銷往亞洲。

Appreciate the colour. Best of luck.

感謝色彩。祝你好運。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Matthew Warder, The Coaltrader.com.

沃德（Matthew Warder），《The Coaltrader.com》。

Hey, guys, hope all is well over there. I actually had a follow up question to Nick who basically stole most of my thunder there. The realizations for Shoal Creek is that basically just getting whacked due to the freight differential over to Asia? Is that the culprit there?

嘿，夥計們，希望那邊一切都好​​。我實際上還想問尼克一個後續問題，但他基本上搶走了我的大部分風頭。Shoal Creek 的現狀是否基本上是由於運往亞洲的運費差異而受到打擊？那是罪魁禍首嗎？

Yeah, Matthew look, there's two things. You know, if you look at the top CSR coal, high CSR coal, we're talking about those being around $180 FOB in Australia. And now when we talk about closer to 60 CSR type goals, which Shoal Creek is, their returns are about $150 FOB metric. Then you have to take a freight differential off that and convert it to short to and that's how I get to my 120 to 130.

是的，馬修，看，有兩件事。您知道，如果您看看頂級 CSR 煤炭、高 CSR 煤炭，我們談論的是澳洲的離岸價格約為 180 美元。現在，當我們談論接近 60 個 CSR 類型的目標時，Shoal Creek 的回報約為 150 美元 FOB 指標。然後你必須從中減去運費差額並將其轉換為短價，這就是我得到 120 到 130 的方法。

Okay. That's, that's all good. Also with regard to the guidance, how are you guys looking at the Semisoft and PCI realizations in 2025 this year, any colour on that would be really helpful.

好的。那就，一切都很好。另外，關於指導，你們如何看待今年 2025 年的半軟和 PCI 實現情況，對此的任何說明都會非常有幫助。

Yeah, so within the existing Peabody portfolio, we don't really sell in into the semisoft market. But what I can, and I would like to talk about the semisoft market because you know, that market is quite long at the moment, particularly out of Newcastle. So, there's been a swing to Queensland semisoft. And so that's part of what's happening with Newcastle returns. So, there's a lot of that, what used to be that low Semisoft products now coming back into thermal. So, when you think about Newcastle thermal, that's the challenge there. So yeah, semisoft quite challenged in Europe, there's been in Poland, there's been a couple of outages which we've seen some Semisoft demand come out of there but really Semisoft is quite weak. But when it comes to PCI, there's two types of PCI, there's low PCI, high quality PCI coming from mines such as Coppabella Moorvale.

是的，因此在現有的 Peabody 產品組合中，我們實際上並沒有向半軟市場銷售產品。但我能夠並且願意談論半軟胎市場，因為你知道，目前這個市場相當長一段時間，特別是紐卡斯爾的市場。因此，昆士蘭州的半軟式滑雪運動已經有所轉變。這就是紐卡斯爾回歸的部分情況。所以，很多過去的低半軟產品現在又重新回歸熱能領域。所以，當你想到紐卡斯爾熱氣流時，這就是那裡的挑戰。是的，半軟在歐洲面臨相當大的挑戰，在波蘭，發生過幾次停電，我們看到一些半軟需求從那裡出來，但實際上半軟是相當弱的。但說到 PCI，有兩種類型的 PCI，一種是低 PCI，另一種是來自 Coppabella Moorvale 等礦場的高品質 PCI。

And then there's byproduct PCI's which tend to be higher in volatile manner. So when you come to that premium low vol category, we see that as really quite short and challenged and the like and you know, we probably see the relative price point at over 80% for that coal at the moment relative to prime, low, high coking coal.

然後還有副產品 PCI，其揮發性往往更高。因此，當您談到優質低揮發性煤炭類別時，我們會發現該類別的供應確實非常短缺，而且面臨挑戰，您知道，與優質、低焦煤和高焦煤相比，我們目前可能看到該類煤炭的相對價格點超過 80%。

Got you. That's pretty helpful. If I can switch gears for a second, I think it was Jim had a comment about receiving inbounds from PE firms about the baseload power for data centre. Are, is that something you guys are pursuing at all at this point? I know it was a kind of a discussion point with Thomas for a while there. Is that the just wondered how you guys are thinking about that this point in time.

明白了。這很有幫助。如果我可以換個話題，我認為 Jim 曾對從 PE 公司收到有關資料中心基載電力的入站資訊發表過評論。這是你們目前正在追求的事嗎？我知道這曾經是和湯瑪斯討論的話題。只是想知道你們此時是如何考慮這個問題的。

Well, first off, welcome to our earnings call, we appreciate the interest and the questions and from you. So, thank you for that. Secondly, the, we are getting inbounds from companies that are trying to figure out how to serve this growing electrical load demands and do it reliably. And so people are looking at coal plants and then if they're looking at coal plants, they want to know that it has long term supply to those coal plants.

首先，歡迎參加我們的財報電話會議，我們感謝您的關注與提問。所以，謝謝你。其次，我們收到一些公司的訊息，這些公司正在嘗試弄清楚如何滿足日益增長的電力負載需求並可靠地做到這一點。因此，人們正在關注燃煤電廠，如果他們正在關注燃煤電廠，他們想知道它是否可以為這些燃煤電廠提供長期供應。

So with the long life and low cost reserves, we are people naturally come to us and ask us if there's anything that we can work together, things that we would do, would we supply that would we participate in that? So, we are getting those inbounds. It's certainly picked up with the Trump administration and their favourable stance towards coal. I wouldn't say there's anything imminent or, breaking on that. But, from a few months ago where we had none of that type of interest coming in or almost none, it's been noticeably increased here in the recent, month or two.

因此，由於擁有長壽命和低成本的儲備，人們自然會來找我們，詢問我們是否可以合作，我們會做什麼，我們會提供什麼，我們會參與其中嗎？因此，我們得到了這些入站資訊。這無疑與川普政府及其對煤炭的有利立場有關。我不會說有什麼迫在眉睫或破壞的事情發生。但是，幾個月前，我們幾乎沒有看到這種興趣，但最近一兩個月，這種興趣明顯增加了。

No, that's interesting. I mean, I think that's something that the whole industry could take advantage of, going forward. I did have one last sort of question which pertains to the Anglo assets, specifically their CapEx. If I recall correctly from the, from the presentation, I think you're targeting a couple $100 million per year in CapEx for the first two or three years and then it goes to a maintenance CapEx level of like '150 like their $13 per clean ton. Am I thinking about that? Right. And, if so, what's the elevated level in the first couple of years, what was that being put to.

不，這很有趣。我的意思是，我認為這是整個產業未來都可以利用的一點。我還有最後一個問題，涉及盎格魯資產，特別是其資本支出。如果我沒記錯的話，從簡報中，我認為你的目標是在前兩三年每年花費幾億美元，然後提高到 150 美元的維護資本支出水平，例如每精噸 13 美元。我正在想那件事嗎？正確的。如果是的話，那麼頭幾年的提升水平是多少，達到了什麼程度。

Matthew You got that. Exactly right. Those are the numbers we've used, really the initial couple years being higher is really due to some of the objectives we have to get that production levels up to what we have forecasted. There's a new Longwall, obviously, Moranbah North, which is, it was a big part in 26. We also talked about some fleet enhancements at Capco etc.

馬修 你明白了。完全正確。這些是我們一直使用的數字，實際上，最初幾年的數字較高實際上是由於我們必須將生產水平提高到我們預測的水平的一些目標。顯然，這裡有一個新的長壁開採系統，即 Moranbah North，它在 26 年中發揮了重要作用。我們也討論了 Capco 等公司的一些車隊增強情況。

So there's a handful of things getting both the north and south district going to Moranbah North, walk on, walk off capabilities, that kind of stuff. And there's those types of things. And then we do see that levelling out to about 150 on a on an average basis going forward for, I think we looked at it in the model probably for the next 10 years on a sustainable basis.

因此，北區和南區前往 Moranbah North 需要做一些事情，包括進出能力，諸如此類的事情。還有那些類型的事情。然後我們確實看到，未來平均值將穩定在 150 左右，我想我們在模型中可能以可持續的方式看待未來 10 年。

Okay. That's great. I think that's all I have here right now, but I'll turn it back over. Thanks a lot for the call, guys. Appreciate it.

好的。那太棒了。我想這就是我現在所擁有的一切，但我會把它交還回去。非常感謝大家的來電。非常感謝。

You bet, man. Thank you.

當然，老兄。謝謝。

This concludes our question-and-answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to Jim Grech for any closing remarks.

我們的問答環節到此結束。我想將會議交還給 Jim Grech 做最後發言。

Thank you, operator. And thank you all for the time today.

謝謝您，接線生。感謝大家今天的寶貴時間。

I'd also like to express my gratitude to the be buddy team for the many excellent accomplishments we had in 2024 and we're planning a highly productive next several months. So, we look forward to keeping everyone apprised and our progress. Thank you.

我還要對 be buddy 團隊表示感謝，感謝我們在 2024 年取得的許多出色成就，我們計劃在接下來的幾個月裡取得豐碩成果。因此，我們期待向大家通報我們的進展。謝謝。

The conference is now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.

會議現已結束。感謝您參加今天的演講。您現在可以斷開連線。