Peabody Energy Corp (BTU) 2024 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good day and welcome to the Peabody first quarter 2024 earnings call. All participants will be in listen-only mode. (Operator Instructions) Please note this event is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Karla Kimrey. Please go ahead.

大家好，歡迎參加 Peabody 2024 年第一季財報電話會議。所有參與者將處於只聽模式。（操作員指示）請注意，此事件正在被記錄。現在我想將會議交給 Karla Kimrey。請繼續。

Good morning, and thanks for joining Peabody Energy's call for the first quarter of 2024. With me today are President and CEO, Jim Grech; CFO, Mark Spurbeck; and our Chief Marketing Officer, Malcolm Roberts. Within the earnings release, you will find our statement on forward-looking information, as well as a reconciliation of non-GAAP financial measures. We encourage you to consider the risk factors referenced there, along with our public filings with the SEC.

早安，感謝您參加 Peabody Energy 2024 年第一季的電話會議。今天與我在一起的有總裁兼執行長 Jim Grech；首席財務官，Mark Spurbeck；以及我們的首席行銷長馬爾科姆·羅伯茨（Malcolm Roberts）。在收益報告中，您將找到我們關於前瞻性資訊的聲明，以及非公認會計準則財務指標的對帳表。我們鼓勵您考慮其中提到的風險因素，以及我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的公開文件。

Now I will turn the call over to Jim.

現在我將電話轉給吉姆。

Thanks, Karla, and good morning, everyone. First quarter operational results were highlighted by a number of challenges and successes. There were unforeseen production challenges in Australia that are now behind us, while thermal coal shipments in the US were impacted by unseasonably warm winter weather and low natural gas prices. Within our Seaborne Met segment, Shoal Creek continued to exceed production expectations, although shipments have been hampered by the failure of the Demopolis lock. We continued to strategically invest in our portfolio through the development of Centurion and completed the acquisition of the adjacent Wards Well coal deposit, which extends the mine life to over 25 years.

謝謝，卡拉，大家早安。第一季的營運表現突顯了一系列挑戰和成功。澳洲曾遭遇不可預見的生產挑戰，但目前這些挑戰已經過去，而美國動力煤運輸則受到異常溫暖的冬季天氣和低天然氣價格的影響。在我們的 Seaborne Met 部門中，Shoal Creek 的產量繼續超出預期，儘管由於 Demopolis 船閘故障導致出貨量受到阻礙。我們繼續透過開發 Centurion 對我們的投資組合進行策略性投資，並完成了對相鄰的 Wards Well 煤礦的收購，這將礦山壽命延長至 25 年以上。

Before I expand on the markets, I want to thank our global employees for their continued focus and commitment to working safely and efficiently.

在擴大市場之前，我要感謝我們全球的員工對安全和高效工作的持續關注和承諾。

Now turning to the global coal markets, seaborne thermal coal markets traded within a tighter range for the first quarter. The warmer winter and low natural gas prices have continued to weigh on demand for thermal coal, coupled with a steady supply from the East Coast of Australia, resulting in Newcastle coal trading within a range of $120 to $135 per ton. Asian thermal coal imports are expected to remain robust, with China continuing to show increases in electricity demand, with first-quarter seaborne thermal coal imports estimated at a year-over-year increase of approximately 15%. Within the seaborne metallurgical coal market, coking coal prices declined during the quarter. Metallurgical coal demand was hampered by thin steel margin globally, except for India, where robust economic output supported steelmaking profitability. PCI prices also retreated during the quarter, however not to the extent of higher quality coking coal. During April, we have seen improving steel margins and seasonal restocking, providing pricing support to metallurgical coal markets.

現在轉向全球煤炭市場，第一季海運動力煤市場交易區間較窄。冬季氣溫回暖和天然氣價格走低持續壓製動力煤需求，再加上澳洲東岸供應穩定，導致紐卡斯爾煤炭交易價格在每噸 120 至 135 美元之間。預計亞洲動力煤進口量將保持強勁，中國電力需求持續成長，第一季海運動力煤進口量預計將年增約15%。海運冶金煤市場中，煉焦煤價格在本季有所下跌。除印度外，全球鋼鐵利潤微薄，阻礙了冶金煤需求，因為印度強勁的經濟產出支撐了煉鋼獲利能力。本季，PCI 價格也有所回落，但回落幅度不如高品質煉焦煤。四月份，鋼材利潤率有所提高，季節性補貨，為冶金煤市場提供了價格支撐。

In the United States, electricity generation for the first quarter of 2024 proved to be particularly challenging, with a warm winter and significantly lower gas prices resulting in coal share of electricity generation nationally declining to approximately 15% during the first quarter. With that said, coal continues to be a critical component to the country's energy generation when looked at regionally in the U.S. As an example, coal power was relied upon and accounted for over 40% of generation in the MISO and SPP regions at various instances in January 2024, again proving the importance of coal for a reliable grid.

在美國，2024 年第一季的發電尤其具有挑戰性，由於冬季溫暖且天然氣價格大幅下降，導致第一季全國煤炭發電份額下降至約 15%。話雖如此，從美國各地區來看，煤炭仍然是該國能源生產的關鍵組成部分。例如，2024 年 1 月，MISO 和 SPP 地區對煤炭發電的依賴程度在不同情況下都超過 40% ，這再次證明了煤炭對於可靠電網的重要性。

Now, moving on to our operating segments. The Seaborne Thermal segment shipped higher volumes than anticipated, with additional Wilpinjong volumes going to the domestic market as a carryover from the train derailment on the mainline in December. Average realized prices and costs per ton were lower than anticipated, due to production at Wilpinjong, where we opportunistically mined some high-ash seams, which we do when the market supports it. The higher production at Wilpinjong was offset by an extended longwall ramp-up at Wambo. Looking forward, we expect a higher proportion of Newcastle spot coal due to increased production from the Wambo complex.

現在，我們來談談我們的營運部門。海運熱能運輸部門的出貨量超出預期，由於 12 月主線火車脫軌事故的影響，更多的 Wilpinjong 貨物流向了國內市場。由於 Wilpinjong 的生產，每噸平均實際價格和成本低於預期。我們在 Wilpinjong 機會性地開採了一些高灰分煤層，當市場支持時我們就會這樣做。Wilpinjong 礦的產量增加被 Wambo 礦長壁開採延長所抵消。展望未來，由於 Wambo 綜合礦山產量增加，我們預計紐卡斯爾現貨煤的比例將會上升。

The Seaborne Met segment shipments were in line with expectations. Volumes were lower than ratable for the year due to an anticipated longwall move at Metropolitan and mine sequencing at the CMJV. Segment costs per ton were at the high end of our range, impacted by an unplanned Coppabella dragline outage and the acceleration of planned coal prep plant repairs at the CMJV, partially offset by higher production at Shoal Creek. Our sales mix was impacted due to mining some lower-quality coals at CMJV, due to mine sequencing. As we look forward to the full year, our sales mix should improve with additional sales from Shoal Creek, with the anticipated opening of the Demopolis lock. In the PRB, shipments were lower than expected as a result of an unseasonably warm winter and prompt natural gas prices that averaged $2.10. Segment costs per ton came in higher than expected due to lower volumes, but were somewhat offset by rationalization of discretionary cost spend. Although PRB demand for the quarter was challenged, we are contracted to 85 million tons for the year. Our full-year guidance assumes a normal summer and fall, with customers meeting their commitments. Our customers have different demands or needs. We will work with them to be responsive while still retaining the full value of our contracts.

Seaborne Met 部門的出貨量符合預期。由於預計 Metropolitan 的長壁開採將發生變動，且 CMJV 的礦井開採將進行排序，因此本年度的開採量低於應計開採量。每噸部門成本處於我們預期的高端，受到 Coppabella 拖纜意外停機和 CMJV 煤炭準備廠計劃內維修加速的影響，但 Shoal Creek 產量增加部分抵消了這一影響。由於礦井排序，CMJV 開採了一些品質較低的煤炭，導致我們的銷售組合受到影響。展望全年，隨著 Demopolis 船閘的預期開放，Shoal Creek 的銷售將會增加，我們的銷售組合將會有所改善。在 PRB，由於冬季異常溫暖且天然氣價格平均為 2.10 美元，導致出貨量低於預期。由於產量較低，每噸分部成本高於預期，但透過合理化可自由支配的成本支出在一定程度上抵消了這一影響。儘管本季的 PRB 需求受到挑戰，但我們全年的合約產量仍為 8,500 萬噸。我們對全年的預期是假設夏季和秋季情況正常，客戶能夠履行承諾。我們的客戶有不同的需求或需求。我們將與他們合作，做出回應，同時保留我們合約的全部價值。

In other U.S. Thermal, shipments were below expectations, as we had a few customers reduce their shipments due to high inventories and low natural gas pricing. Segment margins were higher than anticipated due to favorable sales realization, which included some sales contract cancellation settlements. Even with the current market conditions, our exceptional sales team was able to book some new business, so our price volumes for the year did not change.

在美國其他熱能領域，出貨量低於預期，因為我們的一些客戶由於庫存高和天然氣價格低而減少了出貨量。由於銷售業績良好（其中包括部分銷售合約取消結算），分部利潤率高於預期。即使在當前的市場條件下，我們出色的銷售團隊仍然能夠獲得一些新業務，因此我們今年的價格量並沒有改變。

Outside of our active operations, we continue to make progress at the Centurion mine, our key metallurgical coal growth project. We've had some delays in the delivery dates of some mining equipment from the manufacturer, but expect development coal to occur in the second quarter. As previously announced, we closed on the Wards Well transaction last month. We are currently developing an integrated mining plan, and we'll discuss it more fully in the future. The recruitment of the initial Centurion mine development workforce is complete, even though labor remains tight in the mining industry in Australia. We continue to expect the first longwall coal in early 2026 and capital expenditures remain in line with previous guidance.

除了積極的營運之外，我們還繼續在 Centurion 礦（我們的關鍵冶金煤成長計畫）取得進展。一些採礦設備製造商的交貨日期有所延遲，但預計煤炭開發將在第二季進行。正如之前宣布的那樣，我們上個月完成了 Wards Well 交易。我們目前正在製定綜合採礦計劃，未來我們將進行更全面的討論。儘管澳洲採礦業的勞動力仍然緊張，但 Centurion 礦場初始開發勞動力的招募工作已經完成。我們繼續預期第一批長壁煤將在 2026 年初產出，資本支出仍與先前的指引一致。

We are pleased to announce that for the first time in nearly 12 years, we are mining at our Lee Ranch mine in New Mexico. In 2022, we secured a new long-term contract which extended the life of our New Mexico operations and supported the transition from El Segundo back to Lee Ranch.

我們很高興地宣布，近 12 年來，我們首次在新墨西哥州的 Lee Ranch 礦場進行採礦。2022 年，我們簽署了一份新的長期合同，延長了我們在新墨西哥州的業務壽命，並支持從埃爾塞貢多過渡回李牧場。

In summary, we have had some challenges this quarter. But as we look out to the full year, our operations and sales book have us well positioned. We completed two longwall moves in Australia, coal quality is improving, and our production plans give us confidence in reaffirming our full-year guidance.

總而言之，本季我們遇到了一些挑戰。但展望全年，我們的營運和銷售帳目讓我們處於有利地位。我們在澳洲完成了兩次長壁作業，煤炭品質正在提高，我們的生產計劃使我們有信心重申全年目標。

I'll now turn it over to Mark to cover the financial details.

現在我將把財務細節交給馬克。

Thanks, Jim. In the first quarter, we recorded net income attributable to common stockholders of $40 million or $0.29 per diluted share and adjusted EBITDA of $161 million. Included in these results was an estimated $18 million noncash remeasurement charge from the weaker Australian dollar. The company generated $120 million of operating cash flow and had $61 million of capital expenditures with more than half of it dedicated to Centurion. During the quarter, we continued to execute on our shareholder return program and repurchased 3.2 million shares or 3% of shares outstanding. Under the existing $1 billion share repurchase program, we have $570 million of remaining share repurchase authorization. The Company ended the quarter with $856 million of cash, fully funded reclamation accounts and a new $320 million revolving credit facility.

謝謝，吉姆。第一季度，我們記錄的歸屬於普通股股東的淨利潤為 4,000 萬美元，即每股攤薄收益 0.29 美元，調整後 EBITDA 為 1.61 億美元。該結果包括因澳元貶值而產生的約 1800 萬美元的非現金重估費用。該公司產生了 1.2 億美元的營運現金流，並有 6,100 萬美元的資本支出，其中超過一半用於 Centurion。本季度，我們繼續執行股東回報計劃，回購了 320 萬股，佔已發行股票的 3%。根據現有的10億美元股票回購計劃，我們剩餘的股票回購授權為5.7億美元。季度末，公司擁有 8.56 億美元現金、全額資助的回收帳戶和 3.2 億美元的新循環信貸額度。

Turning now to the first quarter segment results. Seaborne Thermal recorded $94 million of adjusted EBITDA. First-quarter shipments were 100,000 tons more than anticipated, as higher Wilpinjong production offset lower production at Wambo. The lower cost Wilpinjong production was offset by lower realized prices, resulting in EBITDA margins of 33%, in line with the previous quarter. The Seaborne Metallurgical segment generated $48 million of adjusted EBITDA. Average realized pricing was less than anticipated, due to mining lower-quality coal seams at CMJV and PCI coal prices remain weak relative to premium hard coking coal. Costs of $139 per ton were at the higher end of guidance, due to unplanned equipment and wash plant repair costs at the CMJV. The U.S. Thermal mines produced $63 million of adjusted EBITDA in the quarter on lower than expected shipments that Jim previously mentioned. The PRB mines shipped 18.7 million tons and generated $16 million of adjusted EBITDA. Costs came in at $12.74 per ton, higher than expected due to lower production volumes. The other U.S. Thermal segment generated adjusted EBITDA of $47 million. We shipped 3.2 million tons, about 400,000 tons less than anticipated, but also benefited from contract cancellation settlements, which increased revenue and EBITDA margins above fourth-quarter levels. Costs of $45.25 per ton were in line with guidance, as lower maintenance and repair spend offset less volume.

現在來談談第一季的分部業績。Seaborne Thermal 的調整後 EBITDA 為 9,400 萬美元。第一季的出貨量比預期高出 10 萬噸，因為 Wilpinjong 產量的增加抵消了 Wambo 產量的下降。Wilpinjong 生產成本的降低被較低的實際價格所抵消，導致 EBITDA 利潤率為 33%，與上一季持平。Seaborne Metallurgical 部門實現了 4,800 萬美元的調整後 EBITDA。由於在 CMJV 開採品質較低的煤層，且 PCI 煤炭價格相對於優質硬焦煤仍然疲軟，平均實際價格低於預期。由於 CMJV 的非計劃設備和洗滌廠維修費用，每噸 139 美元的成本處於指導值的高位。正如 Jim 先前所提到的，美國熱礦本季的調整後 EBITDA 為 6,300 萬美元，儘管出貨量低於預期。PRB 礦場出貨量為 1,870 萬噸，調整後 EBITDA 為 1,600 萬美元。成本為每噸 12.74 美元，由於產量較低而高於預期。美國其他熱能部門的調整後息稅折舊攤提前利潤為 4,700 萬美元。我們出貨了 320 萬噸，比預期少了約 40 萬噸，但也受益於合約取消協議的達成，這使得收入和 EBITDA 利潤率高於第四季度的水平。每噸 45.25 美元的成本符合指導價格，因為較低的維護和維修費用抵消了產量的減少。

Looking ahead to the second quarter, Seaborne Thermal volumes are expected to increase to 4.1 million tons, including 2.7 million export tons, with higher volumes out of the Wambo complex. 400,000 export tons are priced on average at $146 per ton, with 1.3 million tons of high-ash product and 1 million tons of Newcastle spec product unpriced. Costs are expected to remain consistent with the prior quarter at $45 to $50 per ton. Seaborne Metallurgical volumes are expected to be 1.9 million tons, 500,000 tons higher than the first quarter, as the Metropolitan longwall move is now complete and mine sequencing improves at the CMGV. Volumes are expected to achieve 65% to 70% of the premium hard coking coal price, based on the projected sales mix and current price relativities. With higher production, costs are anticipated to improve to $110 to $120 per ton, in line with full-year guidance. PRB shipments are expected to be 15.5 million tons, lower than ratable, as we enter the traditional second quarter shoulder season. Costs will be temporarily elevated at $12.75 to $13.75 per ton, due to lower shipments and resulting higher strip ratio. Other US Thermal coal shipments of 3.8 million tons are expected to be higher than the prior quarter, as we recently signed new contracts for 1.8 million tons to be delivered this year. We expect costs of $44 to $48 per ton in the quarter. Additionally, in the second quarter, we have the $134 million cash purchase of Wards Well and are expecting tax payments of nearly 120 million in Australia, covering the remaining 2023 liability in the first half of 2024 estimated payments.

展望第二季度，海運熱能運輸量預計將增加至 410 萬噸，其中包括 270 萬噸出口量，其中 Wambo 綜合設施的出口量將增加。 40 萬噸出口產品平均價格為每噸 146 美元，其中 130 萬噸高灰分產品和 100 萬噸紐卡斯爾規格產品未定價。預計成本將與上一季保持一致，為每噸 45 至 50 美元。由於大都會長壁作業遷移現已完成且 CMGV 的礦山排序得到改善，海運冶金產量預計將達到 190 萬噸，比第一季高出 50 萬噸。根據預期的銷售組合和目前的價格相對關係，預計銷量將達到優質硬焦煤價格的 65% 至 70%。隨著產量的提高，預計成本將改善至每噸 110 至 120 美元，與全年指導價格一致。隨著我們進入傳統的第二季度平季，預計 PRB 出貨量將為 1550 萬噸，低於預期水準。由於出貨量減少，剝離率上升，成本將暫時上漲至每噸 12.75 至 13.75 美元。其他美國動力煤出貨量預計為 380 萬噸，高於上一季度，因為我們最近簽署了今年交付 180 萬噸的新合約。我們預計本季成本為每噸 44 至 48 美元。此外，在第二季度，我們以 1.34 億美元現金收購了 Wards Well，預計在澳洲支付近 1.2 億澳元的稅款，以涵蓋 2024 年上半年預計支付的 2023 年剩餘債務。

With an implied stronger second quarter, we are reaffirming full-year guidance. We expect to generate significant cash flow in the second half of the year and remain committed to returning capital to shareholders. Strategically, we continue to take steps to deliver long-term value. We closed the Wards Well acquisition in April and continue development at Centurion. We expect first continuous miner development coal this quarter and are on track to commence longwall operations in the first quarter of 2026, on time and on budget.

由於第二季業績預期更加強勁，我們重申全年業績預期。我們預計下半年將產生大量現金流，並繼續致力於向股東返還資本。從戰略上來說，我們將繼續採取措施實現長期價值。我們於四月完成了對 Wards Well 的收購，並繼續在 Centurion 進行開發。我們預計本季將首次進行連續採礦開發煤炭，並預計在 2026 年第一季按時按預算開始長壁作業。

Operator, I'd now like to turn the call over for questions.

接線員，我現在想將電話轉交給提問者。

Thank you. We will now begin the question-and-answer session. (Operator Instructions)

謝謝。我們現在開始問答環節。（操作員指令）

Our first question comes from Lucas Pipes from B. Riley Securities. Please go ahead.

我們的第一個問題來自 B. Riley Securities 的 Lucas Pipes。請繼續。

Thank you very much, operator. Good morning, everyone. Mark, I want to start with a few questions on the finance side. You noted the US reclamation bond release of $105 million. And I wondered if you could maybe walk us through the cash flow implications of that release, if any? And then more more broadly, there has been some lumpiness around cash flows in Q1. I'd anticipate something similar in Q2 with the Wards Well acquisition closing. Could you speak to any other kind of cash flow impact in Q2, be it working capital or otherwise? And then just with that lumpiness, how do you think about staying in the market from a buyback perspective? Do you have the flexibility to be opportunistic or do you kind of pause it here and then resume it in the second half, when you noted cash flow would be stronger again?

非常感謝，接線生。大家早安。馬克，我想先問幾個關於財務方面的問題。您注意到美國發行了 1.05 億美元的墾荒債券。我想知道您是否可以向我們介紹一下此次發布對現金流的影響（如果有的話）？更廣泛地說，第一季的現金流出現了一些波動。隨著 Wards Well 收購的完成，我預計第二季也會出現類似的情況。您能談談第二季的其他現金流影響嗎，無論是營運資金還是其他方面？那麼，面對這種不平衡，從回購的角度來看，您如何看待留在市場中？您是否有彈性去把握機會，或者您是否會在這裡暫停，然後在下半年恢復，那時您注意到現金流會再次強勁？

Thank you very much.

非常感謝。

Yes, Lucas, thank you for those questions. I'll try to hit on all of them. Really good results with some bond reductions in the first quarter. Credit to our team here for one, getting the reclamation work done, but two also following up and getting those bonds released. On average, those bonds are probably collateralized at about 55%. So there was some cash returned. We also moved around some other bonds in Australia. So there was a cash inflow. So we see a reduction in that restricted cash and cash collateral on the balance sheet. Offsetting that from a cash flow perspective, though, was some using working capital. So net-net, that $120 million of operating cash flow is how you should look at that.

是的，盧卡斯，謝謝你提出這些問題。我會盡力打中所有目標。第一季減少了一些債券，取得了非常好的成績。我們的團隊首先完成了填海工程，其次也跟進了這些債券的發行，我們對此表示讚賞。平均而言，這些債券的抵押率大概為 55% 左右。因此，有一些現金被退還。我們也在澳洲轉移了一些其他債券。因此有現金流入。因此，我們看到資產負債表上的受限現金和現金抵押品減少了。不過，從現金流的角度來看，可以使用一些營運資金來抵銷這一點。因此，您應該這樣看待淨 1.2 億美元的營運現金流。

You mentioned a little lumpy here in Q1 with the performance we turned inm as expected. Q2 will be similar. We have the $134 million cash purchase of Wards Well, and I noted in my remarks, the tax payments in Australia of about $120 million. That makes up both the remaining liability from 2023 as well as first half of 2024 estimated payments. So a couple of significant cash usages here in the second quarter. But again, going out looking at the second half, well positioned. You know, based on guidance in the forward price strip, you can see some pretty significant cash flow depending on your price deck, but that $300 million to $400 million is an opportunity we have out in front of us, from a cash flow perspective.

您提到，第一季的業績略有起伏，但我們的業績符合預期。Q2 將會類似。我們以 1.34 億美元現金收購了 Wards Well，我在發言中提到，我們在澳洲繳納了約 1.2 億美元的稅款。這包括 2023 年的剩餘負債以及 2024 年上半年的預計付款。因此，第二季度這裡有幾次重大的現金使用。但再次回顧下半場，我們處於有利位置。您知道，根據遠期價格條中的指導，您可以看到根據您的價格平台出現的相當可觀的現金流，但從現金流的角度來看，3 億到 4 億美元是我們面前的一個機會。

Maybe lastly, just touching on the program, I'll note a couple of things. One, you know, everything we do, including our shareholder return program, is designed for long-term value and durability. Since we restarted the program, we've announced the return of just under $0.5 billion -- $50 million in dividends and about $430 million in share buybacks. Through the repurchase program, we have essentially created 15% growth in earnings and free cash flow on a per-share basis with that share reduction. We have completed the balance sheet initiatives we set out two or three years ago to do, which included one very important step that no-one else has done, and that is pre-funding 100% of our global reclamation liability. This puts us in a leading position in the industry going forward, taking that big liability off the table and eliminating a big liquidity and capital risk going forward. So we believe that puts us in a great position to continue developing our premier hard coking coal project in Centurion. And with our quarterly fixed cash dividend, the program's durability remains through periods of lower cash flow, but also very flexible, the increasing periods of above-average free cash flow on direction of our Board.

也許最後，只是談談這個計劃，我會注意到幾件事。首先，您知道，我們所做的一切，包括我們的股東回報計劃，都是為了長期價值和持久性而設計的。自從我們重啟該計畫以來，我們已宣布返還近 5 億美元——5,000 萬美元的股息和約 4.3 億美元的股票回購。透過回購計劃，我們實際上透過減持實現了每股收益和自由現金流 15% 的成長。我們已經完成了兩三年前製定的資產負債表計劃，其中包括一個其他人都沒有做過的非常重要的步驟，那就是預先為我們的全球填海責任提供 100％ 的資金。這使我們在未來的行業中處於領先地位，消除了巨大的負債並消除了未來的巨大流動性和資本風險。因此，我們相信，這將使我們處於有利地位，繼續在 Centurion 開發我們的優質硬焦煤項目。透過我們的季度固定現金股息，該計劃的持久性在現金流較低的時期仍然有效，但也非常靈活，在董事會的指導下，自由現金流高於平均水平的時期不斷增加。

So lastly, I'd note and I think you asked, are we going to be opportunistic or flexible? Yes, I think our program is meant to be flexible. And as we look out in the full year, we see some strong cash flows going forward, and we have the flexibility in our program to look at things on an annual basis and get back in the market on an opportunistic basis when our Board deems it appropriate. So a lot of flexibility, a lot of opportunity for us going forward, and we remain committed to returning additional capital to shareholders.

最後，我想指出，我想你會問，我們要把握機會，還是要靈活變通？是的，我認為我們的計劃應該是靈活的。展望全年，我們看到未來現金流強勁，而且我們的計劃具有靈活性，可以按年度審視情況，並在董事會認為合適時抓住機會重返市場。因此，我們在未來擁有很大的靈活性和巨大的機會，我們仍然致力於向股東返還更多資本。

Mark, really appreciate that. I think you hit on all the points there. So thank you for that, Jimmy, I want to get your perspective on a couple regulatory things. First, EPA last week unveiled the new power plan rule. Could you maybe comment on what you think the impact is to your domestic business and how you think from a strategic perspective you can mitigate any impact? And then over in Australia there's, I think, a new labor rule coming that in regards to contractor pay? If you could maybe comment on that and what the impact might be in Australia, would appreciate your thoughts on those two developments. Thank you.

馬克，真的很感激。我認為你已經觸及了所有要點。所以謝謝你，吉米，我想聽聽你對幾個監管問題的看法。首先，美國環保署上周公布了新的電力計畫規則。您能否評論一下這對您的國內業務有何影響，以及您認為從戰略角度如何減輕影響？那麼我認為澳洲即將推出一項有關承包商薪資的新勞動法規嗎？如果您能對此發表評論並了解其對澳洲可能產生的影響，我將非常感激您對這兩項發展的看法。謝謝。

Okay. Yes, Lucas. So on the first one with the EPA and the new suite of rules and the Clean Power Plan rules, I do have some comments on that, but I do want to start out and just to recognize the fact that approximately three quarters of the EBITDA generated from our company comes from our Seaborne Thermal and Met segments. So that doesn't mean we're not concerned about these regulations. Again, the majority of the EBITDA comes from our seaborne platform. And you know, one of the things you said, what's it going to mean for our domestic business? Well, a lot of these things go into effect, if they do go into effect, in the later years. So I don't see any near-term impacts.

好的。是的，盧卡斯。因此，關於第一個有關環境保護署和新規則以及清潔電力計劃規則的問題，我確實對此有一些評論，但我想首先承認一個事實，即我們公司產生的約四分之三的 EBITDA 來自我們的 Seaborne Thermal 和 Met 部門。但這並不意味著我們不關心這些規定。再次強調，大部分 EBITDA 來自我們的海運平台。您知道嗎，您說過的一件事是，這對我們的國內業務意味著什麼？嗯，很多這些事情都會在以後幾年生效（如果它們確實生效的話）。因此我看不到任何短期影響。

And the question that's still out, is there any be any longer-term impacts? So we've stated many times that as a company, we believe in a diverse energy mix, and that includes coal and renewables, to have grid reliability and energy security and affordability. With this suite of regulations, we do believe, though, that the EPA has overstepped its authority granted to it by Congress, and it's threatening grid reliability at a time of increased energy demand.

但仍有一個問題：這是否會產生長期影響？因此，我們已多次表示，作為一家公司，我們相信多元化的能源結構，包括煤炭和再生能源，以實現電網的可靠性、能源安全性和可負擔性。然而，我們確實認為，有了這套法規，環保署已經超越了國會賦予它的權力，並且在能源需求增加的情況下威脅到電網的可靠性。

So what's different, I think, this time around from when this has happened in past years, is several things, Lucas, that have to be taken into account when you're trying to assess what potential impact that we're going to see from these regulations. One is what's going on now, which hasn't been happening for many, many years is surging power demand forecast for the next five years, and we've had relatively flat load growth for quite a period in our country. And now with the manufacturing centers, electric vehicles, data centers, AI centers and so on, there's tremendous, tremendous load growth projected. So again, you get what's the impact on US coal markets, well as a result of that load growth, projected load growth, you know in past quarters, over 20 power plants have announced delays in retirement dates. So actually you look at that and the US thermal market from that perspective is actually growing.

所以我認為，這次與過去幾年的情況不同，盧卡斯，當你試圖評估這些法規可能帶來的影響時，必須考慮到幾件事。一個是現在的情況，這種情況已經很多年沒有出現了，未來五年的電力需求預計將激增，而我們國家在相當長的一段時間內負荷增長相對平穩。現在，隨著製造中心、電動車、資料中心、人工智慧中心等的發展，預計負載將出現巨大的成長。所以，您再想想這對美國煤炭市場有何影響，由於負載增長，預計負載增長，您知道在過去幾個季度，已有超過 20 家發電廠宣布推遲退役日期。因此實際上你從這個角度來看，美國熱能市場實際上正在成長。

The second thing that's out there that I think is very, very different from when EPA has done this in the past with these proposed regulation is the national reply of a concern of grid reliability and not having enough existing -- even existing baseload generation to support this load growth. So what does that mean, is there was a groundswell of opposition or stated concern with these proposed EPA regulations. You've got FERC, NERC, PJM, MISO, Electric Utilities, which we haven't heard from in the past, politicians from both sides of the aisle are talking about their concerns with these proposed regulations. You've got leading national newspapers, The Wall Street Journal, Washington Post, New York Times. Overnight there was a very good article in Fox News, an opinion piece, stating their concerns over this grid reliability. So very, very different in the past, this groundswell of opposition and concern over these regulations. And what I think is going to happen is you're going to see a very swift and significant pushback in the U.S. court system. Over 20 state attorney generals have already announced their intentions to fight the proposed regulations. We're working with the National Mining Association, America's Power to mount the U.S. mining industry support legal challenges and we expect to see court stays on this at some time this year.

第二點，我認為與美國環保署過去提出的這些法規非常不同的是，國家對電網可靠性的擔憂以及現有的甚至現有的基本負載發電量不足以支撐這種負載增長。那麼，這是否意味著，人們對這些擬議的 EPA 法規的反對情緒或擔憂情緒高漲？我們之前沒有聽說過聯邦能源管理委員會（FERC）、國家能源管理委員會（NERC）、PJM、MISO、電力公用事業等機構，兩黨政客都在談論他們對這些擬議法規的擔憂。你有主要的全國性報紙，《華爾街日報》、《華盛頓郵報》、《紐約時報》。一夜之間，福克斯新聞上出現了一篇非常好的文章，一篇評論文章，表達了他們對電網可靠性的擔憂。這與過去有很大不同，現在人們對這些規定的反對和擔憂情緒高漲。我認為即將發生的是，你會看到美國司法系統遭遇非常迅速且顯著的反擊。已有 20 多個州的總檢察長宣布了反對該擬議法規的意圖。我們正在與美國全國礦業協會和美國電力公司合作，對美國採礦業發起支持法律挑戰，我們預計今年某個時候法院將暫停對此案的審理。

So the crux of your question is what do we think is going to happen? Nothing in the near term and I think there's enough opposition in the long term to really put in doubt the impact that these will have on U.S. generation mix, particularly given the fact that power plant lives are being extended because of the load growth.

所以你的問題的關鍵是我們認為會發生什麼？短期內不會有什麼影響，而且我認為長期來看有足夠的反對聲音，令人懷疑這些舉措將對美國發電結構產生怎樣的影響，尤其是考慮到發電廠的壽命將因負載增長而延長。

The second question you had was about the new labor rules and Australia contractor, same job same pay. And we've included all that in our guidance already. That really isn't effective until November 1st. And any impact we see is going to be in there and we don't have as many contractors on our payroll as other mining companies in Australia. So there is some impact. It's not significant and it's already in our forecast going forward after November 1st.

您的第二個問題是關於新的勞動規則和澳洲承包商的同工同酬。我們已經將所有這些內容納入了我們的指導中。這實際上要到 11 月 1 日才有效。我們看到的任何影響都會存在，而且我們的薪資單上沒有澳洲其他礦業公司那麼多的承包商。所以還是有一定影響的。這並不重要，而且這已經在我們的 11 月 1 日之後的預測中了。

Jim, thank you very much for that detailed answer on the EPA side. Very, very helpful. On the second part, roughly what percentage of your Australian workforce consists of contractors, or labor costs? I guess there'd be a few ways to slice it, but I guess if it starts November, then we have 2 out of 12 months' impact, so just trying to get a sense for what it could mean for next year on a full-year basis.

吉姆，非常感謝您對 EPA 的詳細回答。非常非常有幫助。第二部分，你們的澳洲勞動力中大約有多少比例是承包商或勞動成本？我想有幾種方法可以將其劃分開來，但是我想如果它從 11 月開始，那麼我們將會對 12 個月中的 2 個月產生影響，因此只是想了解它對明年全年的影響。

Yes, Lucas, I don't have that right in front of me, but we'll get it right back to you. We'll follow up with you on that when we get you the correct number on that.

是的，盧卡斯，我現在還沒有收到，但我們會馬上還給你。當我們得到正確的號碼後，我們會跟進您的情況。

Sounds good. I really appreciate the color. I'll turn it over for now and in the meantime, best of luck.

聽起來不錯。我非常欣賞這個顏色。我現在就將其轉交，同時祝你好運。

Thank you, Lucas.

謝謝你，盧卡斯。

The next question comes from Nathan Martin from Benchmark Company. Please go ahead.

下一個問題來自 Benchmark Company 的 Nathan Martin。請繼續。

Thanks, operator. Good morning, everyone. Start off with Centurion. You guys still targeting development coal there sometime here in the second quarter, it looks like. What's your plan and timing, I guess as far as selling or marketing those tons is concerned?

謝謝，接線生。大家早安。從 Centurion 開始。看起來，你們仍然在第二季的某個時候瞄準開發煤炭。我想，就銷售或行銷這些貨物而言，您的計劃和時間安排是什麼？

Nate, I'll let Malcolm Roberts comment on that.

內特，我會讓馬爾科姆羅伯茨對此發表評論。

Yes, good morning, Nathan. Look, we've already started including contracts for the development coal coming out of Centurion. So during the quarter, a blue chip North Asian customer has agreed a two-year contract and we look forward to making our first shipment later this year.

是的，早上好，內森。你看，我們已經開始簽訂 Centurion 煤炭開發合約。因此，在本季度，一家北亞藍籌客戶已達成為期兩年的合同，我們期待在今年晚些時候完成第一批貨物的發貨。

Malcolm, are there any limitations there from a transportation standpoint at this point?

馬爾科姆，從交通角度來看，現在那裡有什麼限制嗎？

Absolutely no transport issues. We're fully set up within the Goonyella system with contracts and the like to be able to have to ship that product.

絕對沒有運輸問題。我們在 Goonyella 系統內已完全建立好合約等，以便能夠運送該產品。

Okay, perfect. Great. Appreciate that. And then maybe stick with transportation for a second. I think, Jim, you made some comments about the Demopolis lock outage. Just to be clear, what kind of impact are you still seeing there at Shoal Creek? Clearly, your second quarter net sales guidance is up quarter over quarter, but just a little more color there would be great.

好的，完美。偉大的。非常感謝。然後也許繼續談論交通問題一會兒。吉姆，我認為你對迪莫波利斯鎖中斷發表了一些評論。只是想清楚一點，您在 Shoal Creek 還看到什麼樣的影響？顯然，您第二季的淨銷售額預期比上一季有所上升，但如果能再豐富一些就更好了。

Yes, I'll comment on the lock and then I'll turn it over to Malcolm to talk about the sales. The lock, we've been saying we expect it to be back in service by the end of May, and the Corps of Engineers came out this morning and actually said I think it's going to be May 22nd it will be back in service. So more than a week earlier than planned. So that's some good news that we have for us.

是的，我會對鎖進行評論，然後我會把它交給馬爾科姆來談論銷售情況。我們一直說，預計水閘將在五月底恢復使用，工程兵團今天早上出來表示，我認為它將在 5 月 22 日恢復使用。所以比計劃提前了一周多。這對我們來說是一個好消息。

Now in regards to your question about the impact on sales, I'll let Malcolm comment on that.

現在關於您關於對銷售的影響的問題，我將讓馬爾科姆對此發表評論。

Thanks, Jim. We've been railing some product to the port at McDuffie. However, what this really means is that for the second half of the year, we're going to be weighted probably two-thirds of their annual volume from Shoal Creek to the second half of the year and one-third for the first half as a result, but we really do look forward to that lock coming back and we're advised today 22nd of May.

謝謝，吉姆。我們一直在用鐵路將一些產品運送到麥克杜菲港。然而，這實際上意味著，在今年下半年，我們可能要將來自 Shoal Creek 的年運輸量的三分之二分配給下半年，將三分之一分配給上半年，但我們確實期待那道船閘的恢復，我們今天得到的建議是 5 月 22 日。

Okay, guys. Appreciate that info as well. Maybe shifting over -- and I know I asked about this last quarter and I think, Jim, you clearly made some comments in your prepared remarks, too. But the PRB shipments below your first-quarter target, second-quarter guidance down 3 million tons plus or minus. Again, we know seasonally that's typical during the shoulder season, but would be great to kind of get your thoughts on what gives you confidence to maintain your full-year guidance range at this point. I mean, it looks to me like you will need to increase second-half shipments by at least 12 million tons just to kind of hit the low end of that range. So it would be great to just get a little bit more thought around that piece. Thank you.

好的，夥計們。也感謝這些資訊。也許是轉移——我知道我在上個季度問過這個問題，我想，吉姆，你在準備好的發言中也明確地發表了一些評論。但PRB第一季的出貨量低於目標，第二季的預期下調了300萬噸左右。再說一次，我們知道從季節過渡期來看，這是很正常的，但如果能聽聽你的看法，是什麼讓你有信心在此時維持全年的指導範圍，那就太好了。我的意思是，在我看來，你需要將下半年的出貨量增加至少 1,200 萬噸，才能達到該範圍的低端。因此，如果能對這一點多加思考就好了。謝謝。

Nathan, first off, the tonnage levels that we're looking at for the second and then particularly the third and fourth quarter are well within tonnage ranges that we've shipped in the past. So as far as the quantity of coal and our ability to produce it, and I do believe the railroads are going to be able to move it as well, which is a key item, in the third and fourth quarter. So logistically, operationally, we feel very good about that. Our sales book is strong and the indications we have from our customers is that right now we are expecting to have some normal pull in that third and fourth quarter on those tons. We've already seen an uptick in some nominations for May. It was a little stronger than we thought it was going to be and we are getting some early indications . We could see that again in June. So it looks like there is recovery starting to occur in the PRB and the indications we're getting from our customers at this time operationally, logistically, we feel -- again, we feel that's why we're reaffirming that guidance for the full year.

內森，首先，我們預計第二季、特別是第三季和第四季的出貨量都處於我們過去出貨量的範圍內。就煤炭的數量和生產能力而言，我相信鐵路也能夠運輸煤炭，這是第三季和第四季的關鍵項目。因此從後勤和營運角度來看，我們對此感到非常滿意。我們的銷售業績很強勁，從客戶那裡得到的跡象表明，我們目前預計第三季和第四季這些產量將正常成長。我們已經看到五月份的一些提名增加。它比我們想像的要強一些，而且我們已經得到了一些早期跡象。我們可能會在六月再次看到這種情況。因此看起來 PRB 開始出現復甦跡象，而且我們此時從客戶那裡得到的營運和物流方面的跡象表明，我們感覺 — — 再次，我們感覺這就是我們重申全年指引的原因。

Great. Thanks, Jim. And then maybe just one more. Mark, to you, don't want to leave you out. I know Lucas touched on this earlier. Some of the moving pieces on the cash side here in the second quarter that are expected. Your available free cash flow, I think, was actually negative at the end of the first quarter. How could this impact your ability to repurchase shares again here in the second quarter?

偉大的。謝謝，吉姆。然後也許只剩下一個了。馬克，對你來說，我不想把你排除在外。我知道盧卡斯之前提到過這一點。預計第二季現金方面會出現一些變動。我認為，您可用的自由現金流在第一季末實際上是負的。這會對您在第二季再次回購股票的能力產生什麼影響？

Yes. No, you're right. The tables, so the minus 4 there off of Q1, and with the cash purchase at Wards Well, and the cash tax payments, are not expecting a robust number for Q2. But again, our program is designed to be flexible. On an annual basis we're very happy with our liquidity position, and we see some strong cash flows coming forward here in the second half of the year.

是的。不，你是對的。從表格上看，第一季的數據減去了 4 個點，再加上在 Wards Well 的現金購買和現金納稅，預計第二季的數據不會很強勁。但我們的計劃設計得非常靈活。從年度來看，我們對我們的流動性狀況非常滿意，我們預計今年下半年將出現強勁的現金流。

Thanks, team. Very helpful. Appreciate the time and best of luck.

謝謝，團隊。非常有幫助。感謝您的時間並祝您好運。

The next question comes from Katja Jancic from BMO Capital Markets. Please go ahead.

下一個問題來自 BMO Capital Markets 的 Katja Jancic。請繼續。

Hi. Thank you for taking my questions. Maybe just staying a bit on the share buybacks, is there any possibility that you could some of the cash on the balance sheet, since it's so strong, for buybacks?

你好。感謝您回答我的問題。也許只是稍微保留一點股票回購，有沒有可能你可以將資產負債表上的部分現金（因為資產負債表如此強勁）用於回購？

Yes, Katja, it's Mark. As I mentioned, you know, the program is based on an annual look and we have flexibility. As I mentioned with Nate, we feel comfortable with our liquidity in strong cash flows coming in the second half of the year. So we are designed to be flexible and we haven't announced anything but we have that built in to do what we deem appropriate and to be opportunistic as the market presents.

是的，卡佳，我是馬克。正如我所提到的，該計劃是基於年度回顧的，並且我們具有靈活性。正如我和 Nate 所提到的，我們對今年下半年強勁的現金流的流動性感到滿意。因此，我們的設計是靈活的，我們還沒有宣布任何消息，但我們已經做好了準備，可以做我們認為合適的事情，並隨著市場的變化而抓住機會。

Okay. And maybe then on the Centurion, I think for this year for second half, you expect to ship 150,000 tons or that was prior expectation. Is that still -- does that still hold? And then maybe looking to next year, what could potential contribution from Centurion be?

好的。那麼對於 Centurion 來說，我認為今年下半年預計出貨量為 15 萬噸，或者這是之前的預期。那仍然——那仍然成立嗎？那麼展望明年，Centurion 的潛在貢獻是什麼？

Yes. So this year, we look to ship about 100,000 tons for the current year. And I think production next year on a development basis is probably in the 400,000 ton range. And as Malcolm mentioned, we already have blue-chip Asian customers kind of knocking down our doors, trying to contract some of that coal. So really set up strong.

是的。因此，我們今年計劃出貨約 10 萬噸。我認為明年的開發產量可能在 40 萬噸左右。正如馬爾科姆所提到的，已經有亞洲藍籌客戶敲開我們的大門，試圖購買部分煤炭。所以確實設立了強項。

Okay. Thank you.

好的。謝謝。

(Operator Instructions) Our next question is a follow-up from Lucas Pipes from B. Riley Securities. Please go ahead.

（操作員指示）我們的下一個問題是來自 B. Riley Securities 的 Lucas Pipes 的後續問題。請繼續。

Thank you very much for taking my follow-up question. I'll start with a quick one. The high-ash product, could you remind us what pricing has been quarter to date for that API 5? And then where does Wilpinjong typically price as a percentage against that index? Thank you.

非常感謝您回答我的後續問題。我先簡單說一下。高灰分產品，您能否提醒我們 API 5 的季度定價是多少？那麼 Wilpinjong 的定價相對於該指數的百分比通常是多少？謝謝。

Sure. It's Malcom here. We guide to a 5% to 20% discount against the APR 5 index, which is the China index, which is a 5500kCal, 22% ash product. We supply our high-ash product slightly higher than that. So that represents the discount that we're guiding to.

當然。我是馬爾科姆。我們預計 APR 5 指數（中國指數）將有 5% 到 20% 的折扣，該指數是 5500kCal、22% 灰分產品。我們供應的高灰分產品比這略高。這代表了我們預期的折扣。

All right. That's helpful. And on Shoal Creek in Q1, the MSHA data was very helpful -- was very, very strong. And so I wondered if you could maybe comment on kind of the operational outlook from here. I'd assume there's maybe a little bit of a normalization, but it would be helpful to hear how you think about operations at Shoal Creek for the remainder of the year.

好的。這很有幫助。關於第一季的 Shoal Creek，MSHA 數據非常有幫助，非常非常強勁。所以我想知道您是否可以對這裡的營運前景發表評論。我認為情況可能會稍微正常化一些，但聽聽您對今年剩餘時間 Shoal Creek 運營的看法將會很有幫助。

Lucas, I think the MSHA data had about 600,000 tons in Q1, which again is a very, very strong quarter for the mine. Very, very happy with what the team has done down there and shows that new fit-for-purpose longwall that we had down there is really making a difference. But we do have longwall moves later in the year, we have miners' vacation and so on to contend with later in the year, and we didn't have all of those things occurring in the first quarter. So to keep that pace up would be very challenging later in the year and with all the things that we have, I just don't see it staying at that pace in the following quarter, with the longwall moves and the miners' vacation that we have ahead of us.

盧卡斯，我認為 MSHA 的數據顯示第一季的產量約為 60 萬噸，這對於該礦來說又是一個非常非常強勁的季度。我對團隊在那裡所做的工作感到非常非常高興，這表明我們在那裡採用的新型適用長壁開採技術確實發揮了作用。但是，我們在今年晚些時候確實有長壁移動，我們在今年晚些時候要應對礦工的休假等問題，而所有這些事情並沒有在第一季發生。因此，在今年稍後保持這樣的速度將會非常具有挑戰性，考慮到我們目前面臨的所有情況，我認為下一季我們無法保持這樣的速度，因為我們要進行長壁作業，還要迎接礦工的休假。

I appreciate the color. Thank you very much and again, best of luck.

我很欣賞這個顏色。非常感謝您，並再次祝您好運。

Thank you.

謝謝。

There are no more questions in the queue. This concludes our question-and-answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to Jim Grech for any closing remarks.

隊列中沒有其他問題。我們的問答環節到此結束。我想將會議交還給 Jim Grech 做最後發言。

Thank you all for joining us today. I'd especially like to thank our employees for remaining focused on safety and for continuing to execute on our various initiatives. I'd also like to thank our investors, customers and vendors for your continued support. Operator, that concludes our call. Thank you.

感謝大家今天的參與。我特別要感謝我們的員工始終關注安全並繼續執行我們的各項措施。我還要感謝我們的投資者、客戶和供應商的持續支持。接線員，我們的通話到此結束。謝謝。

The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.

會議現已結束。感謝您參加今天的演講。您現在可以斷開連線。