Peabody Energy Corp (BTU) 2023 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good morning and welcome to the Peabody fourth-quarter 2023 earnings conference call. (Operator Instructions) Please note, this event is being recorded.

早安，歡迎參加皮博迪 2023 年第四季財報電話會議。（操作員說明）請注意，正在記錄此事件。

I would now like to turn the conference over to Karla Kimrey, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

我現在想將會議交給投資者關係副總裁 Karla Kimrey。請繼續。

Good morning, and thanks for joining Peabody's earnings call for the fourth quarter and full year of 2023. With me today are President and CEO, Jim Grech; CFO, Mark Spurbeck; and our Chief Marketing Officer, Malcolm Roberts.

早安，感謝您參加 Peabody 2023 年第四季和全年財報電話會議。今天與我在一起的有總裁兼執行長 Jim Grech；財務長馬克‧斯珀貝克；以及我們的首席行銷長馬爾科姆·羅伯茨。

Within the earnings release, you will find our statement on forward-looking information as well as a reconciliation of non-GAAP financial measures. We encourage you to consider the risk factors referenced there along with our public filings with the SEC.

在收益報告中，您將找到我們關於前瞻性資訊的聲明以及非公認會計準則財務指標的調整表。我們鼓勵您考慮其中提到的風險因素以及我們向 SEC 提交的公開文件。

I'll now turn the call over to Jim.

我現在將把電話轉給吉姆。

Thanks, Karla, and good morning, everyone. For the full-year 2023, our operations performed as expected, delivering another year of strong results, allowing us to further enhance shareholder value. We pre-funded our long-term mine closure and reclamation obligations and implemented a robust shareholder return plan, which resulted in reducing our shares outstanding by over 11%.

謝謝卡拉，大家早安。2023年全年，我們的營運表現符合預期，又取得了強勁的業績，使我們能夠進一步提升股東價值。我們為長期礦山關閉和復墾義務預先提供資金，並實施了穩健的股東回報計劃，這使得我們的流通股減少了 11% 以上。

We also continued to strategically reinvest in our met portfolio through our Centurion development project, the pending acquisition of a large portion of the Wards Well reserved adjacent to the project, and the purchase of the new longwall kits at our Shoal Creek and Metropolitan operations.

我們也繼續透過 Centurion 開發案、即將收購該專案附近保留的 Wards Well 的大部分、以及在 Shoal Creek 和 Metropolitan 業務購買新的長壁套件，對我們的氣象投資組合進行策略性再投資。

In the fourth quarter of 2023, we produced strong results despite a non-Peabody-related train derailment on the mainline in Australia that interrupted some deliveries in December. We continued to advance development of our Centurion premium hard coking coal project and successfully put the new longwall at Shoal Creek into production ahead of schedule. Given the March Mine fire at Shoal Creek, this was an incredible achievement that would not have been possible without the efforts of our dedicated employees working in close coordination with MSHA.

儘管澳洲幹線上發生了與皮博迪無關的火車脫軌事件，導致 12 月的部分交付中斷，但我們在 2023 年第四季仍取得了強勁的業績。我們持續推動 Centurion 優質硬焦煤專案開發，Shoal Creek 新長壁開採​​成功提前投產。鑑於 Shoal Creek 的 March 礦場火災，這是一項令人難以置信的成就，如果沒有我們敬業的員工與 MSHA 的密切配合，這是不可能實現的。

Before I expand on the markets, I want to thank our global employees for their continued focus and commitment to working safely and efficiently. Coming off our lowest annual global injury rate in company history last year, this year, we achieved our second best annual global injury rate and a record low injury rate in Australia for a calendar year. Our Wilpinjong Mine celebrated two years with no lost time incidents. Our Twentymile Mine won the Sentinels of Safety Award for the second year in a row, recognizing the mine as the safest underground mine in the US.

在拓展市場之前，我要感謝我們的全球員工對安全和高效工作的持續關注和承諾。去年，我們創下了公司歷史上最低的年度全球傷害率，今年，我們實現了全球第二高的年度全球傷害率，並創下了澳洲歷年最低傷害率的紀錄。我們的 Wilpinjong 礦場慶祝了兩週年，沒有發生任何誤工事故。我們的二十哩礦井連續第二年榮獲安全哨兵獎，將該礦井視為美國最安全的地下礦井。

Now turning to the global coal markets, seaborne thermal coal markets were range bound during the quarter. Elevated coal and natural gas inventories in the Northern Hemisphere have continued to weigh on demand for high-energy thermal coal, coupled with an increased supply from the East Coast of Australia, resulting in Newcastle coal trading within a range of $120 to $150 a tonne.

現在轉向全球煤炭市場，本季海運動力煤市場窄幅波動。北半球煤炭和天然氣庫存增加持續影響高能動力煤的需求，加上澳洲東海岸供應增加，導致紐卡斯爾煤炭交易價格在每噸120至150美元之間。

Asian thermal coal imports continue to grow, with China reporting that thermal coal imports totaled 354 million metric tonnes for 2023, increasing by 62% compared with the year-ago level and are by far the largest contributor to Asian import growth. In contrast, Japan and Korea are on track to record mild decreases in imports for 2023.

亞洲動力煤進口持續成長，中國報告2023年動力煤進口總量為3.54億噸，年增62%，是迄今為止亞洲進口成長的最大貢獻者。相較之下，日本和韓國 2023 年進口量可望小幅下降。

Within the seaborne metallurgical coal market, the volatility which characterized the first nine months of 2023 continued during the balance of the year. The steel sector outside of China showed growth in crude steel output during the three months ended December 31, 2023, led mainly by India and its ongoing strong economic expansion.

在海運冶金煤市場中，2023 年前 9 個月的波動性在該年剩餘時間內持續存在。截至2023年12月31日的三個月內，中國以外的鋼鐵業粗鋼產量出現成長，主要由印度及其持續強勁的經濟擴張帶動。

Total crude steel output during the period, however, contracted because of the sharp decline in Chinese production, where steel producers reported thin margins and slower domestic demand. Premium hard coking coal indices finished the quarter marginally lower, around $323 a tonne.

然而，由於中國產量急劇下降，鋼鐵生產商利潤微薄，國內需求放緩，導致這段時期的粗鋼總產量萎縮。本季優質硬焦煤指數小幅下跌，約每噸 323 美元。

The outlook for the metallurgical coal market remains positive, with seaborne supply remaining below historical levels, combining with strong Indian purchase interest and new import demand for steel-making coals within Southeast Asia. In comparison, PCI and semi-soft coking coals observe more substantial price reductions.

冶金煤市場前景依然樂觀，海運供應仍低於歷史水平，加上印度強勁的購買興趣和東南亞地區對煉鋼煤的新進口需求。相較之下，噴吹煤和半軟焦煤的降價幅度更大。

In the United States, electricity generation from thermal coal has declined year on year due to low gas prices and the impacts of renewable generation. The near-term demand outlook is anticipated to be challenged by comparatively high generator inventories as we transition into the post-winter shoulder season. Renewables continue to grow as part of the energy mix. However, we have seen several of our customers delay the retirement of some of their plants in order to ensure grid reliability.

在美國，由於天然氣價格低廉和再生能源發電的影響，動力煤發電量逐年下降。隨著我們進入冬季後的平季，預計近期需求前景將受到相對較高的發電機庫存的挑戰。再生能源作為能源結構的一部分繼續增長。然而，我們發現一些客戶推遲了部分電廠的退役，以確保電網的可靠性。

Now moving on to our operating segments, our seaborne thermal fourth-quarter coal volumes came in at 3.7 million tonnes, which was lower than anticipated, primarily due to a train derailment on the main line, which serves our Wilpinjong Mine. The derailment occurred on December 6 and impacted shipments for 10 days. Segment costs per tonne were at the high end of our range due to the lower shipments.

現在轉向我們的營運部門，第四季度我們的海運熱力煤炭產量為 370 萬噸，低於預期，主要是由於服務於我們 Wilpinjong 礦的主線上發生火車脫軌。脫軌發生於12月6日，影響出貨10天。由於出貨量較低，每噸分部成本處於我們範圍的高端。

Our seaborne met segment shipments were 2.1 million tonnes in the quarter, in line with expectations, while total segment costs were better than anticipated at $108 per tonne. In December, we were able to successfully commence new longwall production at Shoal Creek in a newly developed L-panel district ahead of schedule.

本季我們的海運冶金部門出貨量為 210 萬噸，符合預期，而部門總成本為每噸 108 美元，優於預期。12 月，我們提前在新開發的 L 型面板區的 Shoal Creek 成功開始了新的長壁開採。

In the PRB, shipments of 23.6 million tonnes were better than anticipated. This quarter, Peabody increased our production share of the total PRB shipments from 39% in the third quarter to 43% in the fourth quarter.

在PRB，2,360萬噸的出貨量優於預期。本季度，Peabody 將我們在 PRB 總出貨量中的生產份額從第三季度的 39% 提高到第四季度的 43%。

Now the US thermal shipments were 3.7 million tonnes, slightly below expectations as we had a few customers reduce their demand due to high inventories and natural gas pricing. Outside of our active operations, we continue to make progress at the Centurion Mine, our key metallurgical coal growth project.

現在美國熱力出貨量為 370 萬噸，略低於預期，因為我們有一些客戶因高庫存和天然氣定價而減少了需求。除了我們的積極營運之外，我們的主要冶金煤開發項目 Centurion 礦也繼續取得進展。

In December, we renamed North Goonyella as the Centurion Mine, signifying a new chapter in our operations. The Centurion complex will include the former North Goonyella Mine, along with the new Wards Well deposit, which is adjacent to our existing property. We anticipate closing on the Wards Well transaction in the second quarter.

12 月，我們將 North Goonyella 更名為 Centurion 礦，標誌著我們的營運翻開了新篇章。Centurion 綜合大樓將包括前 North Goonyella 礦以及毗鄰我們現有礦區的新 Wards Well 礦床。我們預計 Wards Well 交易將於第二季完成。

At site, we continue to advance on initiatives to support the commencement of development coal in April, including installation of a new conveyor system and the commissioning of equipment for underground development.

在現場，我們繼續推動支持四月開始開發煤炭的舉措，包括安裝新的輸送系統和調試地下開發設備。

We're also making progress with building out the workforce as we welcome our first group of permanent underground workers. We'll continue to onboard additional underground operators and maintenance staff to support scaling up of development.

隨著我們迎來第一批永久地下工人，我們在勞動力建設方面也取得了進展。我們將繼續招募更多的地下操作員和維護人員，以支援擴大開發規模。

We continue to expect the first sales of development coal in the second half of 2024 and longwall coal in 2026. We entered a new year with a diverse platform that gives us the stability and consistency to deliver results, allowing us to return cash to shareholders and advance major projects as we re-weight our portfolio to more seaborne coal.

我們繼續預計開發煤將在 2024 年下半年首次銷售，長壁煤將在 2026 年首次銷售。我們進入了新的一年，多元化的平台為我們提供了交付成果的穩定性和一致性，使我們能夠向股東返還現金，並在我們重新調整投資組合以增加海運煤炭的同時推進重大項目。

As we look forward to 2024, we are focused on executing our strategy by continuing to deliver consistent, predictable, and reliable performance from our operations, advancing Centurion, our Tier 1 premium hard coking coal development project, and delivering value to our shareholders through our previously announced shareholder return program.

展望 2024 年，我們將專注於執行我們的策略，繼續提供一致、可預測和可靠的營運績效，推進我們的一級優質硬焦煤開發項目 Centurion，並通過我們的先前公佈的股東回報計劃。

I'll now turn it over to Mark to cover the financial details.

我現在將把它交給馬克來介紹財務細節。

Thanks, Jim. In the fourth quarter, we recorded net income attributed to common stockholders of $192 million or $1.33 per diluted share and adjusted EBITDA of $345 million. For the full year, we recorded net income of $760 million or $5 per diluted share and adjusted EBITDA of $1.4 billion.

謝謝，吉姆。第四季度，我們歸屬於普通股股東的淨利潤為 1.92 億美元，即稀釋後每股收益 1.33 美元，調整後 EBITDA 為 3.45 億美元。全年淨利潤為 7.6 億美元，即稀釋後每股收益 5 美元，調整後 EBITDA 為 14 億美元。

The company generated $1.1 billion of operating cash flow from continuing operations and $724 million of available free cash flow. Based on these results, we have announced the return of $471 million to shareholders, primarily through share buybacks. Through December 31, we have repurchased 16.1 million shares, better than 11% of shares outstanding and have 80 million more to deploy in the first quarter.

該公司透過持續經營業務產生了 11 億美元的營運現金流，以及 7.24 億美元的可用自由現金流。基於這些結果，我們宣布主要透過股票回購向股東返還 4.71 億美元。截至 12 月 31 日，我們已回購 1,610 萬股股票，高於已發行股票的 11%，第一季還有 8,000 萬股可供部署。

Turning now to segment results, in the fourth quarter, seaborne thermal reported $100 million of adjusted EBITDA. Tonnes shipped were less than anticipated, primarily due to a rail issue on the main line, which limited Wilpinjong shipments and moved costs toward the higher end of guidance. For the full year, the seaborne thermal segment reported $577 million of adjusted EBITDA. Export shipments increased to 10 million tonnes, and the segment achieved adjusted EBITDA margins of 43%.

現在轉向分部業績，Seaborne Thermal 在第四季度公佈的調整後 EBITDA 為 1 億美元。發貨量低於預期，主要是由於幹線鐵路問題，限制了 Wilpinjong 的發貨量，並使成本向指導值的高端移動。全年海運熱能業務調整後 EBITDA 為 5.77 億美元。出口量增加至 1,000 萬噸，該部門調整後 EBITDA 利潤率達 43%。

The seaborne metallurgical segment generated $166 million of adjusted EBITDA in the fourth quarter, more than double the prior quarter's result, as both shipments and realized prices were substantially higher. Costs of $108 per tonne were below the low end of guidance, and Shoal Creek achieved a great earlier-than-expected start of the new longwall in the L-panel district.

海運冶金部門第四季調整後 EBITDA 為 1.66 億美元，是上一季業績的兩倍多，因為出貨量和實現價格均大幅上漲。每噸 108 美元的成本低於指導下限，Shoal Creek 在 L 面板地區的新長壁開採​​比預期提前了很多。

For the full year, the seaborne metallurgical segment reported $438 million of adjusted EBITDA. Shipments increased to 6.9 million tonnes despite a tough transition year at Shoal Creek. The segment achieved adjusted EBITDA margins of 34%, A favorable result considering our average realized price was $55 per tonne, lower than last year, as a result of weaker PCI coal prices.

全年海運冶金業務調整後 EBITDA 為 4.38 億美元。儘管 Shoal Creek 度過了艱難的過渡年，但出貨量仍增加至 690 萬噸。該部門的調整後 EBITDA 利潤率為 34%，考慮到由於噴吹煤價格疲軟，我們的平均實現價格為每噸 55 美元，低於去年，這是一個有利的結果。

The PRB mines shipped 23.6 million tonnes, our highest quarterly volumes since 2019, a testament to our team's full recovery from the mid-year tornado disruption, putting themselves in a position to seize an opportunity to load additional trains. Higher shipments were partially offset by additional repairs and other costs, resulting in $38 million of adjusted EBITDA for the quarter.

PRB 礦場的出貨量為2,360 萬噸，這是我們自2019 年以來最高的季度發貨量，證明我們的團隊已從年中龍捲風破壞中完全恢復，使自己能夠抓住機會裝載更多火車。出貨量的增加被額外的維修和其他成本部分抵消，導致本季調整後 EBITDA 達到 3,800 萬美元。

For the full year, adjusted EBITDA was $154 million, more than double last year, as we continue to benefit from the sales book we built during 2021 and 2022, where we favored longer-term contracts with improved pricing over shorter-term contracts at spot pricing levels. Year over year, our PRB average realized price increased $0.85 per tonne or nearly 7%. And over the last two years, our PRB average realized price is up 25%.

全年調整後 EBITDA 為 1.54 億美元，是去年的兩倍多，因為我們繼續受益於 2021 年和 2022 年期間建立的銷售賬簿，與現貨短期合約相比，我們更傾向於定價改進的長期合約定價水平。與去年同期相比，我們的 PRB 平均實現價格上漲了每噸 0.85 美元，近 7%。過去兩年，我們的 PRB 平均實現價格上漲了 25%。

The other US thermal mines delivered $42 million of adjusted EBITDA in the fourth quarter. Production was impacted by the planned longwall move at Twentymile, and lower volumes from certain customers reduced shipments below guidance. However, we benefited from a substantial increase in the average realized price to $57 per tonne due to buyouts and compensation payments from these customers. As a result, segment EBITDA exceeded implied guidance.

美國其他熱礦在第四季度實現了 4,200 萬美元的調整後 EBITDA。生產受到 Twentymile 計劃中的長壁開採的影響，某些客戶的產量下降導致出貨量低於指導值。然而，由於這些客戶的買斷和補償付款，我們受益於平均實現價格大幅上漲至每噸 57 美元。因此，分部 EBITDA 超越了隱含指引。

For the full year, adjusted EBITDA was $208 million, and we achieved segment-adjusted EBITDA margins of 23%. Together, the US thermal mines produced $361 million of adjusted EBITDA in 2023, an increase of $51 million over the previous year.

全年調整後 EBITDA 為 2.08 億美元，分部調整後 EBITDA 利潤率為 23%。2023 年，美國火礦的調整後 EBITDA 合計產生了 3.61 億美元，比前一年增加了 5,100 萬美元。

Looking ahead to 2024, we expect another year of consistent operating and financial results. Seaborne thermal volumes are expected to be very similar to 2023. However, we anticipate benefiting from a higher proportion of Newcastle spec product due to mine sequencing at the Wambo Open-Cut Mine. Shipments are anticipated to be 15 million to 16 million tonnes, including 10 million export tonnes, and costs are projected to be consistent with 2023 levels at $45 to $50 per tonne.

展望 2024 年，我們預期營運和財務表現將持續保持穩定。預計海運熱容量將與 2023 年非常相似。然而，由於萬博露天礦場的礦場排序，我們預計將受益於更高比例的紐卡斯爾規格產品。預計出貨量為 1,500 萬至 1,600 萬噸，其中出口量為 1,000 萬噸，成本預計與 2023 年水準保持一致，為每噸 45 至 50 美元。

Seaborne metallurgical volumes are projected to increase by 1 million tonnes to 8 million, primarily due to a full year of production from the newly installed longwall at Shoal Creek. Segment costs are expected to improve to $110 to $120 per tonne. In the PRB, we are forecasting shipments of 80 million to 87 million tonnes, and we have 85 million tonnes priced at $13.70. Costs are expected to remain mostly flat with 2023 levels at $11.75 to $12.50 per tonne.

海運冶金產量預計將增加 100 萬噸至 800 萬噸，這主要是由於 Shoal Creek 新安裝的長壁開採系統的全年產量。預計該部門成本將改善至每噸 110 至 120 美元。在 PRB，我們預計出貨量為 8,000 萬至 8,700 萬噸，其中 8,500 萬噸的價格為 13.70 美元。預計成本將基本與 2023 年持平，為每噸 11.75 美元至 12.50 美元。

Other US thermal volume is expected to be 15 million tonnes, down slightly from 2023 as we transition from the El Segundo to Lee Ranch reserves out west. We have 15.2 million tonnes priced at $53.70 and expect costs in the range of $41 to $45 per tonne, largely consistent with last year.

隨著我們從埃爾塞貢多 (El Segundo) 儲量過渡到西部的李牧場 (Lee Ranch) 儲量，美國其他熱電儲量預計為 1500 萬噸，較 2023 年略有下降。我們有 1520 萬噸，價格為 53.70 美元，預計成本在每噸 41 至 45 美元之間，與去年基本一致。

Total capital expenditures are estimated at $375 million, including $235 million of project capital, primarily for the continued development of Centurion and sustaining capital of $140 million. Additionally, we expect to close the previously announced acquisition of the Wards Well coal deposit.

總資本支出估計為 3.75 億美元，其中包括 2.35 億美元的專案資本，主要用於 Centurion 的持續開發和 1.4 億美元的維持資本。此外，我們預計將完成先前宣布的沃茲井煤礦的收購。

Specifically for the first quarter, seaborne thermal volumes are expected to be 3.9 million tonnes, including 2.5 million export tonnes as we ramp up from the Wambo underground longwall move from the fourth quarter of last year. Costs per tonne are expected to be consistent with prior quarter at $48 to $53 per tonne.

具體來說，第一季度，海運熱力發電量預計為 390 萬噸，其中包括 250 萬噸出口量，因為我們從去年第四季開始加大萬博地下長壁開採的力度。每噸成本預計與上一季持平，為每噸 48 至 53 美元。

Seaborne metallurgical volumes are expected to be lower than ratable at 1.4 million tonnes, with cost temporarily elevated at $130 to $140 per tonne, primarily due to a longwall move at Metropolitan and mine sequencing at the CMJV.

海運冶金量預計將低於額定的 140 萬噸，成本暫時升至每噸 130 至 140 美元，主要是由於 Metropolitan 的長壁開採和 CMJV 的礦山排序。

We also continue to monitor the Demopolis lock situation, a lock under repair that has the potential to temporarily increase transportation costs of Shoal Creek, but we don't anticipate a financial impact to first-quarter results.

我們也持續監控 Demopolis 船閘的情況，船閘正在維修，有可能暫時增加 Shoal Creek 的運輸成本，但我們預計不會對第一季業績產生財務影響。

We expect to ship 21 million tonnes of PRB coal in the quarter, with costs largely consistent with the prior quarter at $11.75 to $12.50 per tonne. Other US thermal coal shipments are expected to be in line with the prior quarter at 3.6 million tonnes, while costs improve to $41 to $45 per tonne.

我們預計本季將運輸 2,100 萬噸 PRB 煤炭，成本與上一季基本一致，為每噸 1175 至 12.50 美元。美國其他動力煤出貨量預計與上一季持平，為 360 萬噸，而成本則改善至每噸 41 至 45 美元。

In summary, Peabody delivered another year of consistently strong results and generated substantial EBITDA and most importantly, free cash flow. Peabody's diversified portfolio of mines is uniquely positioned, having generated approximately 40% of adjusted EBITDA from the seaborne metallurgical segment, 40% from the seaborne thermal segment, and 20% from the US thermal segments over the last two years.

總而言之，皮博迪又在一年內取得了持續強勁的業績，產生了可觀的 EBITDA，最重要的是，產生了自由現金流。皮博迪多元化的礦場投資組合定位獨特，在過去兩年中，約 40% 的調整後 EBITDA 來自海運冶金部門，40% 來自海運熱力部門，20% 來自美國熱力部門。

After repaying the last of our secured debt in 2022, last year, we pre-funded all future mine closure and reclamation obligations, further enhancing the company's financial strength and flexibility. With our financial and environmental liabilities addressed, we reinstated a robust shareholder return program and announced the return of $471 million to our shareholders based on 2023 results.

去年，在償還了 2022 年最後一筆擔保債務後，我們為未來所有礦場關閉和復墾義務提供了預先融資，進一步增強了公司的財務實力和靈活性。在解決了我們的財務和環境責任後，我們恢復了穩健的股東回報計劃，並宣布根據 2023 年的業績向股東回報 4.71 億美元。

Last month, we announced the new $320 million revolving credit facility, further enhancing the company's financial resiliency during the development period of Centurion. We anticipate achieving our goal of further weighting Peabody's long-term cash flow towards premium hard coking coal when longwall production begins in 2026.

上個月，我們宣布了新的 3.2 億美元循環信貸額度，進一步增強了該公司在 Centurion 開發期間的財務彈性。我們預計，當長壁開採於 2026 年開始生產時，我們的目標將進一步增加皮博迪長期現金流出優質硬焦煤的比重。

We remain focused on creating shareholder value, operating safe and efficient mines, maximizing free cash flow and shareholder returns, and continuing development of Centurion, all while maintaining our financial strength.

我們仍然專注於創造股東價值、安全高效地運營礦山、最大化自由現金流和股東回報以及 Centurion 的持續發展，同時保持我們的財務實力。

Operator, I'd now like to turn the call over for questions.

接線員，我現在想轉接電話詢問問題。

(Operator Instructions) Lucas Pipes, B. Riley Securities.

（操作員指示）Lucas Pipes，B. Riley Securities。

Thank you very much, operator. Good morning, everyone. My first question is on the met coal guidance for 2024. Nice outlook there. And twofold question; first, would you be able to provide a breakdown of the quality of met coal at the midpoint, call it, 8 million tonnes? And then how many development tonnes from Centurion would be included in that guide? Thank you very much.

非常感謝您，接線生。大家，早安。我的第一個問題是關於 2024 年煤炭煤炭指南。那裡的景色不錯。還有雙重問題；首先，您能否提供中點（即 800 萬噸）冶金煤品質的細目分類？那麼該指南中將包含 Centurion 的多少開發噸呢？非常感謝。

Hi, Lucas. Good morning. Yeah, we're real pleased with the 8 million tonnes for the full-year 2024, really stepping up 1 million tonnes and really based and good production from Shoal Creek. As you're aware, we have a little bit of development coal we expect from Centurion.

嗨，盧卡斯。早安.是的，我們對 2024 年全年產量達到 800 萬噸感到非常滿意，確實增加了 100 萬噸，而且 Shoal Creek 的產量確實基礎良好。如您所知，我們希望從 Centurion 獲得一點開發煤炭。

While we'll be getting that coal and building inventories, probably, sales will be closer to150,000 tonnes. When we look at the total over the portfolio, we're probably looking at about 4 million tonnes of PCI and about 1.5 million high-volume product, primarily from Shoal Creek.

雖然我們將獲得煤炭和建築庫存，但銷售量可能接近 15 萬噸。當我們查看產品組合的總量時，我們可能會看到大約 400 萬噸 PCI 和大約 150 萬件大批量產品，主要來自 Shoal Creek。

I think that the balance, maybe I didn't catch all. The rest of that is metropolitan data, which is kind of less semi-hard coking, both what would be the best index. But Metropark, I mean, we continue to look at the whole portfolio and achieving that off of a premium hard coking coal and 65% to 70%. But our Nalco, maybe you want to address the relativities of those products go.

我想，這個平衡，也許我沒有領會到全部。其餘的是大都會數據，這是一種不太半硬焦化的數據，兩者都是最好的指數。但維景，我的意思是，我們繼續關注整個投資組合，並透過 65% 至 70% 的優質硬焦煤來實現這一目標。但我們的納爾科，也許你想解決這些產品的相對性問題。

Thank you. The balance? Maybe I didn't catch it at all.

謝謝。餘額？也許我根本沒聽懂。

Yeah, the rest of that is Metropolitan, which a semi-hard coking coal.

是的，剩下的就是大都會煤，一種半硬焦煤。

Got it. What would be the best index for Metropolitan?

知道了。大都會的最佳指數是什麼？

I mean, we continue to look at the whole portfolio and achieving that off of a premium hard coking coal at 65% to 70%. But Malcolm, maybe you want to address the relativities of those products?

我的意思是，我們將繼續關注整個產品組合，並透過 65% 至 70% 的優質硬焦煤來實現這一目標。但是馬爾科姆，也許您想解決這些產品的相關性？

Yeah, look, we don't we don't list independently each of our assumed relativities, but Metro is clearly passed against prime low-vol hard coking coal at a small discount to that.

是的，看，我們沒有單獨列出我們假設的每一個相對性，但 Metro 顯然是透過與優質低揮發硬焦煤相比的，而其折扣很小。

Very helpful. I appreciate that. Thank you. Then staying on the met coal side, for Centurion, could you remind us of the CapEx budget -- the total CapEx budget? Has that evolved? Is that under review? And looking out to 2025 and beyond, what would be left in terms of capital expenditures at the end of this year? Thank you very much.

很有幫助。我很感激。謝謝。那麼，在煤炭方面，對於 Centurion，您能否提醒我們資本支出預算—總資本支出預算？這已經進化了？正在審核中嗎？展望 2025 年及以後，今年底的資本支出還剩下多少？非常感謝。

Yeah, Lucas, I'll break that down. So as we previously announced, the North Goonyella historical legacy portion of Centurion, it's a total CapEx of $489 million. $125 million of that has been spent as of 12/31. We have in the budget $150 million for 2024, and that would leave about $200 million for 2025 for the North Goonyella side.

是的，盧卡斯，我會分解它。正如我們先前宣布的，Centurion 的 North Goonyella 歷史遺留部分的資本支出總額為 4.89 億美元。截至 12 月 31 日，其中 1.25 億美元已支出。我們的 2024 年預算為 1.5 億美元，這將為北古尼埃拉方面留下約 2 億美元的 2025 年預算。

Now the Wards Well piece, we look to close that here in the second quarter of this year. We do have $50 million of capital development for the Wards Well portion of Centurion in 2024. We haven't come up with the whole project CapEx beyond that. We're still in the process of developing an integrated mine plan, and we'll provide that guidance at a later date.

現在是 Wards Well 的部分，我們希望在今年第二季結束。到 2024 年，我們確實為 Centurion 的 Wards Well 部分提供了 5000 萬美元的資本開發。除此之外，我們還沒有提出整個專案的資本支出。我們仍在製定綜合採礦計劃，我們將在稍後提供該指導。

And Lucas I'd like to add to that that the CapEx, the portions of it that are associated with equipment and conveyors and so on and miners has pretty much been spent -- ordered, and those costs are known. A large part of what Mark is talking about is the development costs, which get capitalized until we get to production.

盧卡斯我想補充一點，資本支出，與設備和輸送機等以及礦工相關的部分幾乎已經花費了 - 訂購了，並且這些成本是已知的。馬克所說的很大一部分是開發成本，這些成本在我們投入生產之前都會被資本化。

So as far as equipment and being exposed to inflationary pressures, we feel that that's pretty much behind us. We feel pretty good about those capital numbers because, again, it's mainly associated with development going forward.

因此，就設備和麵臨的通膨壓力而言，我們認為這已經遠遠落後於我們了。我們對這些資本數字感覺非常好，因為它主要與未來的發展有關。

Very, very helpful. Thank you for that. I'll squeeze one last theme, and it's around your balance sheet and capital returns, so kind of a three-pronged question. I'll try to be brief, but congratulations on the revolver. How does that fit into your capital structure going forward? Does that unlock additional capital return opportunities?

非常非常有幫助。謝謝你。我要強調最後一個主題，它圍繞著你的資產負債表和資本回報，這是一個三管齊下的問題。我會盡量簡短，但恭喜你獲得了左輪手槍。這如何適應您未來的資本結構？這是否會帶來額外的資本回報機會？

And related, how do you think about cash on your balance sheet today? Is that the right level going forward? Again, it ties into the revolver, of course. And then, how should we think about net interest income or expense, given that cash balance? I would appreciate your thoughts on this. Thank you.

相關的是，您如何看待今天資產負債表上的現金？這是未來的正確水準嗎？當然，它再次與左輪手槍聯繫在一起。然後，考慮到現金餘額，我們應該如何考慮淨利息收入或淨支出？我很感激您對此的想法。謝謝。

Yeah, all right. So you stuck three questions in there in the last one, Lucas. Happy to answer those questions, though. I'll start and just remind that everything we've done from a balance sheet perspective over the last two years has addressed the evolving capital markets for our industry, which operates with above-average volatility in both demand and market pricing.

是的，好吧。所以你在最後一個問題中提出了三個問題，盧卡斯。不過很高興回答這些問題。首先我要提醒一下，過去兩年我們從資產負債表角度所做的一切都解決了我們行業不斷變化的資本市場問題，而該行業的需求和市場定價波動性都高於平均水平。

We will not risk the company's financial strength, and we took an opportunity to solidify our financial resiliency for inevitable dips in the market with this new revolving credit facility. We think that was particularly prudent during the development phase of Centurion, our premium seaborne metallurgical coal growth engine.

我們不會拿公司的財務實力冒險，我們藉此機會透過這項新的循環信貸安排來鞏固我們的財務彈性，以應對市場不可避免的下跌。我們認為，在我們的優質海運冶金煤成長引擎 Centurion 的開發階段，這一點尤其謹慎。

The revolving credit facility does provide an attractive opportunity to utilize it for letters of credit for surety and other commercial requirements, something that we would be particularly comfortable doing at a Tier 1 met coal mine with a 20-plus-year life.

循環信貸便利確實提供了一個有吸引力的機會，可以將其用於擔保和其他商業要求的信用證，我們在擁有 20 多年壽命的一級煤礦中特別願意這樣做。

I will add that Moody's did take note, bumped our rating up a notch. And while this financial strength comes at a cost of additional liquidity, we continue to benefit from lower surety bonding fees, lower FX hedging costs, as well as lower D&O premiums. So there is a net benefit there. In addition to the interest income that you mentioned, we get a safe treasury like yields. So at today's market, it is probably 4.5% to 5%. It is a good market to use on those cash balances.

我要補充一點的是，穆迪確實注意到了這一點，並將我們的評級提高了一個檔次。雖然這種財務實力是以額外流動性為代價的，但我們繼續受益於較低的保證金費用、較低的外匯對沖成本以及較低的 D&O 保費。所以那裡有淨效益。除了你提到的利息收入之外，我們還得到了像收益率這樣的安全金庫。所以在今天的市場上，大概是4.5%到5%。這是一個利用這些現金餘額的好市場。

Got it, okay. That's helpful. I'll leave it here for now. I appreciate it and best of luck.

明白了，好吧。這很有幫助。我暫時把它留在這裡。我很感激，祝你好運。

Thank you, Lucas.

謝謝你，盧卡斯。

Next question, please.

請下一個問題。

Katja Jancic, BMO Capital Markets.

Katja Jancic，BMO 資本市場。

Hi. Thank you for taking my questions. First, just to confirm, you expect Shoal Creek to add 1.5 million tonnes this year?

你好。感謝您回答我的問題。首先，確認一下，您預計 Shoal Creek 今年將增加 150 萬噸？

Yeah, we haven't provided guidance on an initial mine level, but that's in the right ballpark. We had a really good start to the quarter. We probably think production is probably in that ballpark.

是的，我們還沒有提供關於初始地雷水平的指導，但這是在正確的範圍內。我們本季有一個非常好的開始。我們可能認為產量大概在這個範圍內。

And can you just remind us what is the production capacity at Shoal Creek at this point, the max?

您能否提醒我們 Shoal Creek 目前的最大產能是多少？

That mine has done more than 1.5 historically. But given where we're at in the mine geological conditions, we're comfortable those levels.

該礦歷史上的表現超過 1.5。但考慮到我們所處的礦山地質條件，我們對這些水準感到滿意。

Okay. And then just quickly you -- the major project CapEx is at $235 million. And I think you mentioned the Centurion is about $150 million. Can you talk a bit about what the rest -- what are some of the other projects included in that?

好的。然後很快您就會發現，主要項目的資本支出為 2.35 億美元。我想你提到百夫長號的價值約為 1.5 億美元。您能談談其餘的內容嗎—其中還包括哪些其他項目？

Yeah, there's there's $150 million for the North Goonyella portion of Centurion. There's about $50 million for the Wards Well portion of that, assuming we get that closed in the second quarter. There's also probably $15 million, $20 million down at the Wambo Open-Cut joint venture that's run by Glencore.

是的，Centurion 的 North Goonyella 部分耗資 1.5 億美元。假設我們在第二季完成的話，其中 Wards Well 部分大約有 5000 萬美元。由 Glencore 經營的 Wambo Open-Cut 合資企業也可能有 1,500 萬至 2,000 萬美元的首付。

Okay. Thank you very much.

好的。非常感謝。

You're welcome. Thank you.

不客氣。謝謝。

And I think we can take the next question.

我想我們可以回答下一個問題。

Nathan Martin, Benchmark.

內森馬丁，基準。

Thanks, operator. Good morning, everyone. Thanks for taking my questions. I'll start on the seaborne thermal side, guiding to 9 million to 11 million tonnes of exports there. What's the approximate production split between the high-quality tonnes? You get the Newcastle-like pricing and then the higher-ash, lower-quality product that prices off API2.

謝謝，接線生。大家，早安。感謝您回答我的問題。我將從海運熱力方面開始，引導那裡的出口量達到 900 萬至 1100 萬噸。優質噸之間的大概產量分配是多少？您可以獲得類似紐卡斯爾的定價，然後獲得比 API2 定價更高灰分、品質較低的產品。

I know you guys mentioned in your release the split is roughly even on the unpriced tonnes. But just specifically wondering on production between [Guano] and Wilpinjong this year, I think, Mark, you might have mentioned some positive sequencing along the lines there.

我知道你們在新聞稿中提到，在未定價的噸數上，分割大致是均勻的。但只是特別想知道今年 [Guano] 和 Wilpinjong 之間的生產，我想，馬克，你可能已經提到了一些積極的排序。

And then how do you guys see going forward the overall production levels and quality splits of that segment changing over the next several years? Given some of the expansion projects I believe you've talked about you're working on?

那麼，你們如何看待未來幾年該細分市場的整體生產水準和品質劃分的變化？鑑於我相信您已經談論過您正在進行的一些擴展項目？

I'll take that first question. And you're right, there's some better Newcastle spec product this year on an overall portfolio basis, just given the mine sequencing at the Open Cut, probably looking somewhere in the neighborhood of 4.5 million to 5 million tonnes of Newcastle spec products, which as you know, are all export [tonnes]. Go ahead.

我來回答第一個問題。你是對的，今年在整體產品組合的基礎上有一些更好的紐卡斯爾規格產品，僅考慮到露天開采的礦山排序，可能會尋找大約 450 萬至 500 萬噸紐卡斯爾規格產品，這你知道，都是出口的[噸]。前進。

Great. Can I understand any thoughts on how the splits and the production levels in that segment trend over the next couple years just given some of the projects it looks like you guys are working on?

偉大的。考慮到你們正在從事的一些項目，我能否理解關於未來幾年該細分市場趨勢的分割和生產水平的任何想法？

So we haven't given any guidance beyond '24. I will say that the outlook is fairly stable for the next several years. There are extension projects that are under study. We haven't announced anything, but as we get further down the road and complete those studies, we'll be updating the market.

所以我們在 24 年後沒有給任何指導。我想說的是，未來幾年的前景相當穩定。有一些擴展項目正在研究中。我們還沒有宣布任何消息，但隨著我們進一步推進並完成這些研究，我們將更新市場狀況。

Okay, got it. Maybe over to the met segment quickly, forecasting out the quarter-over-quarter drop there in shipments, I think, to $1.4 million from $2.1 million in the fourth quarter. Maybe get a little more color on that expected decline. Is it vessel timing? Is that something else? I know, Mark, you mentioned you're keeping an eye on the lock outage at Demopolis as well. So any additional thoughts there? Maybe -- are you investigating any transportation alternatives if that continues?

好，知道了。也許很快就會轉向氣象領域，我認為該領域的出貨量將從第四季的 210 萬美元下降到 140 萬美元。也許對預期的下降有更多的了解。是船時間嗎？那是別的東西嗎？我知道，馬克，你提到你也在關注 Demopolis 的停電情況。那麼還有其他想法嗎？也許——如果這種情況持續下去，您是否正在研究任何替代交通方式？

And then on that cost-per-tonne side, I'm assuming you expected shipments driving that range higher for the first quarter versus the full-year range. But any thoughts on maybe how you expect both those items in met segment shipments and cost to trend throughout the year? Any other longwall moves or so to flag? I think you flagged one in the first quarter.

然後在每噸成本方面，我假設您預計第一季的出貨量將高於全年範圍。但是，您對這些產品全年在氣象部門的出貨量和成本趨勢有何想法？還有其他長壁移動或類似標記嗎？我認為你在第一季就標記了一個。

Yeah, I'll start with the volumes, just address the first quarter. Some of that was covered in my remarks. This is typical, or I should say we've had -- we've experienced the last couple of years, really, there's a longwall move at Metro that's bringing down some first-quarter volumes. And then there's just typical mine sequencing at the CMJV.

是的，我將從卷開始，只討論第一季。我的發言中涵蓋了其中一些內容。這是典型的，或者我應該說我們已經經歷過——我們確實經歷了過去幾年，Metro 的長壁移動導致第一季的銷量下降。然後就是 CMJV 的典型礦山定序。

It did have an absolutely fantastic fourth quarter, but just where they're at in the mines in the pit, there will be lower production coming in the first quarter. So it is less than ratable, similar to last-year circumstances. It will increase as we go throughout the year to make up that full balance.

它確實有一個絕對出色的第四季度，但就他們在礦井中的情況而言，第一季的產量將會下降。因此，與去年的情況類似，它的評級較低。隨著我們全年的努力，它會增加以彌補全額餘額。

And then, Jim, do you want to cover the lock issue?

然後，吉姆，你想討論鎖問題嗎？

Yeah, Nate. With the lock issue, the timing that we have -- the industry has from the Army Corps of Engineers is for the locks to be back in service sometime in mid-May That's their current estimate. And so in the interim, we've made alternate transportation routes. We've got two different ones. One is all barge, and another one is barge and rail that we're putting in place to keep the coal moving.

是的，內特。對於船閘問題，我們從陸軍工程兵部隊得到的消息是，船閘將在五月中旬的某個時候重新投入使用，這是他們目前的估計。因此，在此期間，我們制定了替代運輸路線。我們有兩個不同的。一種是全駁船，另一種是駁船和鐵路，我們正在使用它們來維持煤炭的運輸。

We don't see that impacting our first-quarter volumes or our full-year volumes for Shoal Creek sales volumes. We do think there may be a dip in the second quarter, depending on when that lock gets back in place with the sales tonnes in the second quarter. But again, it won't affect the full-year sales numbers for Shoal Creek.

我們認為這不會影響我們第一季的銷售或 Shoal Creek 的全年銷售。我們確實認為第二季可能會出現下滑，這取決於第二季銷量鎖定何時恢復到位。但同樣，這不會影響 Shoal Creek 的全年銷售數據。

Very helpful color, guys. Thank you, and then maybe just one more. Looking at the US thermal business, you flagged how low nat gas prices, high stockpiles are weighing on demand. They did a couple of contract buyouts, I think.

夥計們，非常有用的顏色。謝謝您，也許還可以再問一次。看看美國的熱力業務，您就指出了天然氣價格低、庫存高對需求造成的壓力。我認為他們進行了一些合約買斷。

If I look at PRB in particular, a fantastic year for you guys from that segment, guiding to sales that are maybe only down 1 million or 2 million tonnes. I think that's the midpoint year over year. Obviously, you've already contracted 85 million tonnes there as well.

如果我特別關注 PRB，對於該領域的你們來說，這是美好的一年，銷量可能只會下降 100 萬噸或 200 萬噸。我認為這是逐年的中點。顯然，你們已經在那裡簽訂了 8500 萬噸合約。

So maybe -- can you talk about how conversations have gone or are going with your utility partners out there, whether or not you feel like there could be pressure on that number eventually, just given the current market dynamics we're seeing?

那麼，您能否談談與您的公用事業合作夥伴的對話已經或正在進行中，考慮到我們所看到的當前市場動態，您是否認為該數字最終可能會面臨壓力？

Yeah, it's Mal. I'll take that one. We're very comfortable with the way that we sell and the level that we sell to. I think in terms of the market this year, we might see the generators going to the spot market to a lesser degree than they have in previous years. But we're pretty comfortable with that contracted level and getting that delivered.

是的，是馬爾。我會接受那個。我們對我們的銷售方式和銷售水平非常滿意。我認為就今年的市場而言，我們可能會看到發電機進入現貨市場的程度比往年還要小。但我們對合約水準和交付感到非常滿意。

Thanks, Malcolm. I appreciate that. I'll leave it there. Very helpful, everyone. Thank you for your time and information, and best of luck in '24.

謝謝，馬爾科姆。我很感激。我會把它留在那裡。非常有幫助，大家。感謝您的時間和信息，祝您 24 年好運。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Thank you so much. Next question, please.

太感謝了。請下一個問題。

Chris LaFemina, Jefferies.

克里斯·拉費米納，杰弗里斯。

Thanks, operator. Hey, guys. Thanks for taking my question. So actually, a couple of questions around the met coal business and around capital allocation. So you have the ramp up of North Goonyella, which I assume is going to be premium low-vol product that gets benchmark pricing. Is that accurate?

謝謝，接線生。大家好。感謝您提出我的問題。實際上，有幾個關於冶金煤炭業務和資本配置的問題。因此，North Goonyella 的產量有所增加，我認為這將是獲得基準定價的優質低容量產品。準確嗎？

Absolutely. In my opinion, a lot of people's opinion is that this is the supreme coal, lead top-level coal, and most likely at the top level or at a premium.

絕對地。在我看來，很多人的看法是，這是至尊煤，領先的頂級煤，而且很有可能是頂級的或是溢價的。

And is that true over the reserve life of the asset, or does the quality degrade over time?

在資產的儲備壽命內是否如此，或者品質是否會隨著時間的推移而下降？

That's very true for the whole lot of the asset. The Wards Well reserve addition is the same type of quality, so we don't expect any degradation in the quality at all as we transfer from the old North Goonyella reserves to the Wards Well reserves. It's the same quality.

對於全部資產都是如此。添加的 Wards Well 保護區的品質類型相同，因此，當我們從舊的 North Goonyella 保護區轉移到 Wards Well 保護區時，我們預計品質不會出現任何下降。這是相同的品質。

That's very encouraging. So the markets are beginning to believe in kind of stronger-for-longer net coal pricing. And you're generating cash flow, and now you're pivoting to growth in met coal. You have fairly substantial organic growth. But would you consider looking at M&A opportunities, particularly in met coal, if they were to arise? Or is really the focus now on delivering the organic growth projects and continuing with the capital returns?

這非常令人鼓舞。因此，市場開始相信煤炭淨定價會持續走強。你正在產生現金流，現在你正在轉向冶金煤炭的成長。你有相當可觀的有機增長。但如果出現併購機會，特別是冶金煤炭領域的併購機會，您是否會考慮？或者現在的重點真的是交付有機成長項目並繼續獲得資本回報嗎？

Yeah, Chris, our focus is on delivering the shareholder returns, and the organic growth is always the top of our list because it's the least risk. We have the most control over that, and that continues to be our focus internally. Now as M&A comes along, we opportunistically look at anything that comes our way. We always take a look at it, Chris.

是的，克里斯，我們的重點是提供股東回報，而有機成長始終是我們的首要任務，因為它的風險最小。我們對此擁有最大的控制權，這仍然是我們內在的重點。現在，隨著併購的到來，我們會機會主義地看待任何發生的事情。我們總是會關注它，克里斯。

Now how active we are is a different thing. But as things come our way, we take a look at it and then make a determination if it could benefit our shareholders or not, but it's down the list. Organic opportunities are at the very top of the list.

現在我們有多活躍是另一回事了。但當事情進展順利時，我們會對其進行研究，然後確定它是否能為我們的股東帶來好處，但它不在清單中。有機機會位居榜首。

Yeah, what's nice about the buyback is that you're basically increasing your production on a per-share basis at a low valuation. And as you're ramping up the met coal volumes and reducing your share count, the leverage of the met coal market obviously becomes much greater. So it's just an observation. We definitely like that, and good luck with it all. Thanks for taking my questions.

是的，回購的好處在於，你基本上可以以較低的估值增加每股產量。當您增加冶金煤炭產量並減少股份數量時，冶金煤炭市場的槓桿率顯然會變得更大。所以這只是一個觀察。我們絕對喜歡這樣，祝一切順利。感謝您回答我的問題。

Thank you, Chris. That's the exact same observation we have too.

謝謝你，克里斯。我們也得到了完全相同的觀察。

Thanks for your comments. I think we can take the next question.

感謝您的意見。我想我們可以回答下一個問題。

Michael Dudas, Vertical Research Partners.

麥可‧杜達斯 (Michael Dudas)，垂直研究合作夥伴。

Good morning, Karla and gentlemen.

早安，卡拉和先生們。

Good morning.

早安.

Two questions, first on thermal US, Jim, you mentioned about some -- and we've seen in the market some coal plant closures being deferred, given the dynamics on grid and reliability, et cetera. Maybe you could share with us like relative to maybe six, 12 months ago and how you're looking at your customer base?

有兩個問題，首先是關於美國熱能，吉姆，你提到了一些問題——考慮到電網的動態和可靠性等，我們在市場上看到一些燃煤電廠的關閉被推遲。也許您可以與我們分享大約 6、12 個月前的情況以及您如何看待您的客戶群？

And has there been any major changes on, over the next several years or maybe even sooner, the retirement on your customers and where you're selling the coal? Has that changed? Has that maybe lengthened the opportunity to monetize your reserves in the US? Just wanted to get a thought about that.

在未來幾年甚至更短的時間內，您的客戶的退休情況以及您在哪裡銷售煤炭是否會發生重大變化？那改變了嗎？這是否可能延長了將您在美國的儲備貨幣化的機會？只是想考慮一下。

Mike, the discussions we have with our customers is one of the things that we've noticed that now desires to have longer-term contracts put in place because of the combination of the concern about the reliability supply and the potential for plants having longer lives than was originally thought to be the case.

麥克，我們與客戶進行的討論是我們注意到的一件事，現在希望簽訂長期合同，因為對可靠性供應的擔憂和工廠壽命更長的潛力相結合比最初認為的情況更是如此。

And I would say that the conversations we're having with our customers and what we're seeing is a plant that maybe we're going to close in the next few years, looking at them going out to '29 or '30. It's not a -- nobody's making commitments or predictions beyond that, but it is a very good trend to see that occurring.

我想說的是，我們正在與客戶進行的對話以及我們所看到的是一家工廠，我們可能會在未來幾年內關閉，並考慮它們會在 29 或 30 年停止生產。這不是——沒有人做出超出此範圍的承諾或預測，但看到這種情況發生是一個非常好的趨勢。

And again, Mike, as I'm sure you know, the issue is reliability, right? The reliability of the grid backed up by baseload power and the need to keep these plants around to do that. So it's an encouraging start, getting us through -- stronger through the end of this decade, and we'll see where it leads to from there.

麥克，我相信你也知道，問題在於可靠性，對嗎？電網的可靠性由基本負載電力支持，並且需要保留這些工廠來實現這一目標。因此，這是一個令人鼓舞的開始，讓我們在本十年末變得更加強大，我們將看看它會帶來什麼結果。

I appreciate those thoughts. Secondly, as you know the market intelligence on your part, as you look out maybe to the second half of this year, do you think there's better chance for the thermal markets to recover nicely or see pressure on the seaborne met side? Given where fundamentals are, I agree with Chris's thought about the shortage -- the scarcity of met coal.

我很欣賞這些想法。其次，據您了解的市場情報，您預計今年下半年，您認為熱力市場有更好的機會恢復良好，還是海運會面面臨壓力？考慮到基本面，我同意克里斯關於短缺的想法——冶金煤的稀缺。

But how are you thinking, given what you're seeing and others relative to, of course, the high inventories and gas prices, how that plays through on the supply side and such for some move over the next six, 12 months?

但是，考慮到您所看到的以及其他相關的情況（當然，高庫存和天然氣價格），您如何看待這在供應方面以及未來 6、12 個月內的一些走勢如何發揮作用？

Yes, Mike, before we answer, I just want to make sure we got the question clear. Are you talking about seaborne thermal and seaborne met? (Multiple speakers)

是的，麥克，在我們回答之前，我只想確保我們清楚地回答了問題。您是在談論海運熱能和海運氣象嗎？（多位發言者）

Yes.

是的。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Sure, I'll take that. When it comes to the seaborne met market, we're quite encouraged by what we saw during Q4 with increased crude steel production rates outside of China, and we expect those rates to continue during Q1 and into Q2. And we also are encouraged in the metallurgical coal space by very constrained supply. So supply having got back to those 2019 levels, which we'll use as a bit of a baseline to look at that -- and we still see supply challenge moving through 2024.

當然，我會接受的。就海運冶金市場而言，我們對第四季度中國以外地區粗鋼產量的增加感到非常鼓舞，我們預計第一季和第二季將繼續保持這一水平。冶金煤領域的供應也非常有限，這也為我們帶來了鼓舞。因此，供應量已回到 2019 年的水平，我們將以此為基準來審視這一情況，而且我們仍然認為供應挑戰將持續到 2024 年。

Turning to thermal coal, Newcastle coal is in solid demand. However, at times, we get a little ahead of the demand. So where we sit right now with prices around $120, we think that supply is a little ahead. We had quite a strong supply growth out of East Coast Australia in Q4.

說到動力煤，紐卡斯爾煤炭的需求強勁。然而，有時我們會稍微超出需求。因此，我們目前的價格約為 120 美元，我們認為供應量有點超前。第四季度，澳洲東海岸的供應成長相當強勁。

But we think the prospects for Newcastle thermal coal, and that's the coal that we really put into the export market, improved as we move through the year. We still have inventories to be taken down in the Northern Hemisphere, so we're optimistic about the rest of the year.

但我們認為紐卡斯爾動力煤的前景，也就是我們真正投入出口市場的煤炭，隨著這一年的推移而有所改善。我們在北半球仍有庫存需要減少，因此我們對今年剩餘時間感到樂觀。

Sure, Malcolm, thank you very much.

當然，馬爾科姆，非常感謝你。

Thank you. Operator, do we have another question?

謝謝。接線員，我們還有其他問題嗎？

Lucas Pipes, B. Riley Securities.

盧卡斯‧派普斯 (Lucas Pipes)，B. 萊利證券 (Riley Securities)。

Thank you very much, operator. Thank you very much for taking my follow-up question. My first one is on Wilpinjong. I looked at the technical report some time ago, and that's last year's technical report, I believe. And it showed kind of lower volume starting this year. I wonder if you could maybe comment on that.

非常感謝您，接線生。非常感謝您接受我的後續問題。我的第一個是在 Wilpinjong。我前段時間看了技術報告，那是去年的技術報告，我相信。今年開始，成交量就有所下降。我想知道你是否可以對此發表評論。

I guess we'll get an updated version with the 10-K, but if you could maybe comment on mine of life at Wilpinjong and your outlook on production for this year and the coming years? And then I guess you have to kind of net debt against what goes domestic versus export. So if you could comment on that and the net contribution of Wilpinjong to your seaborne thermal portfolio over time. I would really appreciate the color. Thank you.

我想我們會得到 10-K 的更新版本，但您能否評論一下我在 Wilpinjong 的生活以及您對今年和未來幾年的生產前景？然後我想你必須根據國內和出口的情況來計算淨債務。因此，您是否可以對此以及 Wilpinjong 隨著時間的推移對您的海上熱力投資組合的淨貢獻發表評論。我真的很欣賞這種顏色。謝謝。

Yeah, Lucas. We'll start -- we'll have Malcolm talk about the contracting of the domestic versus the export and some color on that to the extent that we can talk about that. And then I will follow up with your question about the reserves and the outlook. So Malcolm, if you could go first?

是的，盧卡斯。我們將開始——我們將讓馬爾科姆談論國內與出口的合同，並在我們可以談論的範圍內對此進行一些討論。然後我將跟進你關於儲備和前景的問題。馬爾科姆，你可以先走嗎？

Yeah, as we move past 2027, 2028, the proportion of export coal we expect to increase. However, there are some extension options and production options to increase based on that as well at Wilpinjong, which we can -- we've got a very busy drilling program there at the moment.

是的，隨著 2027 年、2028 年的到來，我們預期煤炭出口比例將會增加。然而，在 Wilpinjong 也有一些擴展選項和生產選項可以增加，我們可以——目前我們在那裡有一個非常繁忙的鑽探計劃。

Year over year, we're probably looking at the -- it's only about 300,000, 400,000 tonnes lighter in '24 versus '23, so as Malcolm says. Then I would say export volumes are probably similar year over year as well, so a pretty consistent performance there. And obviously, we already mentioned the better performance out of Wambo Mine increasing the proportion of new [gas wells].

年復一年，我們可能會看到——正如馬爾科姆所說，24 年與 23 年相比僅減少了約 30 萬至 40 萬噸。然後我想說出口量也可能與去年相似，因此表現相當一致。顯然，我們已經提到了萬博礦的較佳表現，增加了新礦的比例[氣井]。

Got it. And should I think about the higher output versus the prior plan as efficiency gains and anticipated optimization opportunities? How should I think about that?

知道了。我是否應該將與先前計劃相比更高的產出視為效率提升和預期優化機會？我該如何思考這個問題？

Yeah, I think it's a combination of both of those things, Lucas. We continue to mine various -- looking forward, going out beyond '24, certainly, there's studies. We talked about that earlier that we are we are conducting -- there's several expansion opportunities, and we'll continue to study those. And when we get further down the line, you'll see an updated production profile and a technical report.

是的，我認為這是這兩件事的結合，盧卡斯。我們繼續挖掘各種——展望未來，超越 24 年，當然，還有研究。我們之前談到我們正在進行中——有幾個擴展機會，我們將繼續研究這些機會。當我們進一步深入時，您將看到更新的生產概況和技術報告。

Lucas, maybe also talking about Wambo, that would come out of that longwall move at the end of last year and have the longwall running this year. I'm not sure what timeframe you're talking about with the tonnage profile.

盧卡斯（Lucas）也許還在談論萬博（Wambo），它將在去年年底的長壁移動中脫穎而出，並在今年進行長壁運行。我不確定你所說的噸位概況是什麼時間範圍。

Yeah, that was Wilpinjong over the next couple of years (Multiple speakers) No, very helpful. I appreciate that discussion. I guess some helpful context. A follow up on Wards Well; I think, earlier, you mentioned $50 million of capital this year. I wonder if you could maybe expand on what you would envision to invest in with that capital. Is it machines? Is it infrastructure for the eventual extraction of those reserves? Would appreciate your comments on that. Thank you.

是的，這就是接下來幾年的 Wilpinjong（多個發言者）不，非常有幫助。我很欣賞這次討論。我想一些有用的背景。Wards Well 的後續行動；我想，早些時候，您提到今年的資本為 5000 萬美元。我想知道您是否可以擴展您希望用這筆資金進行投資的領域。是機器嗎？它是最終提取這些儲備的基礎設施嗎？感謝您對此的評論。謝謝。

Yes, I think it's a combination of both, Lucas. I mean, there will be some -- certainly, we'll begin driving an underground development towards those reserves, which is all capitalized. So that's the preliminary estimate of $50 million for 2024.

是的，我認為這是兩者的結合，盧卡斯。我的意思是，肯定會有一些——當然，我們將開始推動這些儲備的地下開發，這些儲備都是資本化的。這是 2024 年 5000 萬美元的初步估計。

Okay, that's helpful. And then on the domestic side, I wanted to ask about your contract portfolio beyond this year. Can you frame up where the book stands as a percentage of this year's production for 2025 and ballpark what sort of pricing direction should we anticipate? Thank you.

好的，這很有幫助。然後在國內方面，我想問一下你們今年以後的合約組合。您能否列出這本書在 2025 年產量中所佔的百分比，並大致預測一下我們應該預期什麼樣的定價方向？謝謝。

Yeah, Lucas, for 2025, our domestic book right now, if you look at the PRB, and we gauge it against the midpoint of the guidance this year, we're better than 60% committed. And on the other US thermal, same way. If you look at the midpoint of guidance for this year and you take that to 2025, we're about 75% committed. And we have not yet issued any outlook on pricing for 2025.

是的，盧卡斯，對於 2025 年，我們現在的國內書籍，如果你看看 PRB，我們根據今年指導的中點來衡量它，我們的承諾超過了 60%。美國的另一條熱氣流也是如此。如果你看看今年指導的中點，並將其延長到 2025 年，我們大約有 75% 的承諾。我們尚未發布任何 2025 年定價展望。

All right. I appreciate it very much. Again, best of luck.

好的。我非常感激。再次祝你好運。

Thank you, Lucas.

謝謝你，盧卡斯。

This concludes our question-and-answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to Jim Grech for any closing remarks.

我們的問答環節到此結束。我想將會議轉回吉姆·格雷奇（Jim Grech）發表閉幕詞。

Well, thank you all for joining us today. I'd especially like to thank our employees for remaining focused on safety and for continuing to execute on our various initiatives. I'd also like to thank our investors, customers, and vendors for your continued support. Operator, that concludes our call.

好的，謝謝大家今天加入我們。我要特別感謝我們的員工始終關注安全並繼續執行我們的各種措施。我還要感謝我們的投資者、客戶和供應商的持續支持。接線員，我們的通話結束了。

The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation, and you may now disconnect.

會議現已結束。感謝您參加今天的演示，您現在可以斷開連接了。