英美煙草 (BTI) 2023 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, everyone. I'm delighted to welcome you to our 2023 preliminary results presentation. With me this morning is Javed Iqbal Interim Finance Director; and Victoria Buxton, Group Head of Investor Relations.

大家早安。我很高興歡迎您參加我們的 2023 年初步業績發表會。今天早上和我一起的是賈維德·伊克巴爾臨時財務總監；以及投資者關係集團主管維多利亞‧巴克斯頓 (Victoria Buxton)。

I will begin with our financial highlights and the progress we have made against our key areas of focus this year. Javed will then take you through our financial performance in more detail. I will return to talk more about our glide path to building a smokeless world, before we move to the Q&A session.

我將首先介紹我們的財務亮點以及我們今年在重點關注領域的進展。然後，Javed 將帶您更詳細地了解我們的財務表現。在我們進入問答環節之前，我將返回更多地討論我們建立無菸世界的成功之路。

With that, I would like to draw your attention to the disclaimers on Slides 2 and 3. So let's begin with our 2023 performance. Our reported results reflect the impact of a noncash impairment charge taken mainly against our acquired U.S. brands. We will focus on constant currency adjusted results, unless otherwise stated.

在此，我想提請您注意幻燈片 2 和 3 上的免責聲明。我們報告的結果反映了主要針對我們收購的美國品牌的非現金減損費用的影響。除非另有說明，我們將關注恆定的貨幣調整結果。

I'm pleased that we delivered a resilient performance in line with our guidance, reflecting of our global multi-category strategy. The breadth and scale of our global footprint enables us to consistently deliver balancing results. This is demonstrated by our strong performance in AME and APMEA, delivering combined double-digit revenue growth offsetting the U.S.

我很高興我們按照我們的指導方針實現了富有彈性的業績，反映了我們的全球多類別策略。我們的全球足跡的廣度和規模使我們能夠始終如一地提供平衡結果。我們在 AME 和 APMEA 的強勁表​​現證明了這一點，實現了兩位數的綜合收入成長，抵消了美國的成長。

Overall, we have delivered revenue up 3.1%, which excludes Russia and Belarus from both periods. Profit from operations up 3.1% or 3.9% organically and diluted EPS up 4% -- up 5.2%. I'm particularly pleased with our performance in new categories, with revenue up nearly 18% and 21% organically with Vuse and Velo delivering strong volume-led revenue growth.

總體而言，我們的收入成長了 3.1%，這兩個時期均不包括俄羅斯和白俄羅斯。營運利潤有機成長 3.1% 或 3.9%，稀釋後每股收益成長 4% - 成長 5.2%。我對我們在新類別中的表現特別滿意，收入有機增長了近 18% 和 21%，其中 Vuse 和 Velo 實現了以銷量為主導的強勁收入增長。

Our consumer numbers reached 23.9 million, excluding 1.5 million consumers in Russia. We added over 3 million consumers year-on-year with 1.1 million in Q4 alone. At the half year, I shared a clear set of objectives to sharpen our execution and build a more modern and agile BAT.

我們的消費者數量達到 2,390 萬，其中不包括俄羅斯的 150 萬消費者。我們比去年同期增加了超過 300 萬消費者，光是第四季就增加了 110 萬。在這半年裡，我分享了一系列明確的目標，以提高我們的執行力並建立一個更現代和敏捷的 BAT。

Over the last 6 months, working together with our broader teams, we have made good progress across these 6 areas of focus. I will now share some of the highlights.

在過去 6 個月裡，透過與更廣泛的團隊合作，我們在這 6 個重點領域取得了良好進展。現在我將分享一些亮點。

First, I'm delighted that we have reached new category profitability, 2 years ahead of our original target. This has been achieved while we continue to invest an incremental GBP 300 million in 2023 for future growth. Our new categories are meaningfully contributing to group results as we benefit from increased scale with strong profitability gains driven by Vuse and Velo.

首先，我很高興我們已經實現了新類別的盈利能力，比我們最初的目標提前了兩年。我們在 2023 年繼續追加投資 3 億英鎊以實現未來成長的同時，也實現了這一目標。我們的新類別對集團業績做出了有意義的貢獻，因為我們受益於 Vuse 和 Velo 推動的擴大規模和強勁的獲利能力成長。

We have sequentially improved our new category contribution from a peak loss of GBP 1.1 billion in 2020 towards more profit position in 2023, reflecting a GBP 400 million improvement last year. It's important to note that while we expect new category profitability to continue to improve each year, due to the phasing of investments, the improvement in contribution year-on-year will not be linear. We made strong progress in our top 10 new category markets, which generated about 3/4 of our new category revenue in 2023, with category contribution margin now above 20%.

我們已將新類別的貢獻從 2020 年 11 億英鎊的峰值虧損提高到 2023 年的更高利潤水平，反映出去年的 4 億英鎊改善。值得注意的是，雖然我們預期新品類的獲利能力每年都會持續提高，但由於投資的階段性，貢獻的年比改善將不是線性的。我們在十大新品類市場取得了強勁進展，這些市場在 2023 年創造了我們新品類收入的約 3/4，品類貢獻率目前超過 20%。

The performance of these markets demonstrates that revenue continues to grow at pace. Gross and contribution margins are expanding strongly with scale and absolute margin levels are moving closer to the level of our combustibles business. This profitability at scale gives us confidence in our direction of travel as we expand our new category footprint. And it also provides a clear line of sight for our pathway to profitability in less established markets moving forward.

這些市場的表現顯示收入持續快速成長。毛利率和貢獻率隨著規模的擴大而強勁增長，絕對利潤水平正在接近我們的可燃物業務的水平。隨著我們擴大新類別的足跡，這種大規模的獲利能力讓我們對我們的前進方向充滿信心。它也為我們在不太成熟的市場中實現盈利提供了清晰的思路。

Our second focus area has been to return our U.S. combustibles business to consistent value growth. Our commercial (inaudible) signs of volume and value share recovery. Our volume share is up 40 basis points since January, driven by 160 basis points increase in the Premium segments. In addition, we are delivering value share gains, up 20 basis points since January, driven by a 60 basis point increase in our premium share to reach our highest level in 3 years, driven by Newport and Natural American Spirit.

我們的第二個重點領域是使我們的美國可燃物業務恢復持續的價值成長。我們的商業（聽不清楚）跡象顯示銷售和價值份額恢復。自 1 月以來，我們的銷售份額上升了 40 個基點，這得益於高端細分市場 160 個基點的成長。此外，在 Newport 和 Natural American Spirit 的推動下，我們的保費份額增長了 60 個基點，達到了 3 年來的最高水平，自 1 月份以來，我們的價值份額增長了 20 個基點。

I want to share some more color on the actions we are taking in the U.S. In Premium, we have invested in Newport soft pack creating a [ladder] portfolio, which has driven an acceleration in Newport share of the Premium segment. We are working through the target execution of this on a state-by-state basis with a broader rollout planned in 2024.

我想分享更多關於我們在美國採取的行動的資訊。增長。我們正在逐州努力實現這一目標，並計劃在 2024 年進行更廣泛的推廣。

Lucky Strike is the fastest-growing cigarette brand in the market and just 3 years after launch reached 4% national volume share at year-end. In addition, we are sharpening our execution, increasing the number of trade reps by around 10%, further strengthening and simplifying our route to market and upgrading our digital analytics. We are confident that these actions will further strengthen our portfolio over the medium to long-term.

Lucky Strike 是市場上成長最快的捲菸品牌，推出後僅 3 年，年底就達到了 4% 的全國銷售份額。此外，我們正在加強我們的執行力，將貿易代表的數量增加約 10%，進一步加強和簡化我們的市場路線並升級我們的數位分析。我們相信，這些行動將在中長期進一步加強我們的投資組合。

Turning to my third area of focus, Heated Products, where I'm determined to significantly strengthen our portfolio. Our recently announced global patent settlement is an important step forward, allow us to further develop improved products and innovations in the Heated Products space over the medium term.

談到我的第三個重點領域，即加熱產品，我決心大幅加強我們的產品組合。我們最近宣布的全球專利和解是向前邁出的重要一步，使我們能夠在中期進一步開發加熱產品領域的改進產品和創新。

Meanwhile, I'm excited about our newest Hyper launch, which delivers a total system upgrade. Our new device glo Hyper pro is a more premium offering with new heat technology and longer lasting sessions. Our new Supertob consumables have been designed to significantly improve both taste and flavor delivery.

同時，我對我們最新推出的 Hyper 感到非常興奮，它提供了全面的系統升級。我們的新設備 glo Hyper pro 是一款更優質的產品，具有新的加熱技術和更持久的使用時間。我們的新型 Supertob 耗材旨在顯著改善口感和風味傳遞。

In addition, we have launched our first-to-market tobacco-free consumables, veo, with herbal substrate, in 11 European markets. And while it is still early days, we are seeing some promising results, including volume retention for our heated products in these markets. These new launches are early examples of our improved innovation pipeline.

此外，我們還在 11 個歐洲市場推出了首款帶有草藥基質的無菸消耗品 veo。雖然現在還處於早期階段，但我們已經看到了一些有希望的結果，包括我們的加熱產品在這些市場上的銷售保留。這些新產品的推出是我們改進創新管道的早期例子。

We are further strengthening our R&D, adding new device engineering and fully integrating our global teams to form a collaborative network. And we are partnering with the external industry leaders in complementary areas such as battery technologies and electronics manufacturing to accelerate our pipeline.

我們正在進一步加強研發，增加新的設備工程，並充分整合我們的全球團隊以形成協作網路。我們正在與電池技術和電子製造等互補領域的外部產業領導者合作，以加快我們的研發進程。

We continue to execute our product life cycle management model with discipline, enabling us to launch stronger innovations at speed. There is still work to do, but I'm confident that we now have the right capabilities in place to drive a more rapid and meaningful innovation pipeline moving forward.

我們繼續嚴格執行我們的產品生命週期管理模型，使我們能夠快速推出更強大的創新。雖然仍有工作要做，但我相信我們現在擁有適當的能力來推動更快速、更有意義的創新管道向前發展。

My next area of focus is to lead responsible new category development. We need to gain a broad acceptance of our tobacco harm reduction agenda and encourage a fact-based discussion on nicotine amongst key stakeholders. That's why I reestablished our corporate and regulatory affairs function and added a new management Board position.

我的下一個重點領域是領導負責任的新品類開發。我們需要獲得對減少菸草危害議程的廣泛接受，並鼓勵主要利益相關者就尼古丁進行基於事實的討論。這就是為什麼我重建了我們的公司和監管事務職能，並增加了一個新的管理委員會職位。

We are clear that science should guide the development of regulation. This is why we believe that each smokeless product category should be regulated differently, proportionate to the associate risk and according to the evidence base.

我們清楚，科學應該指導監管的發展。這就是為什麼我們認為每個無菸產品類別都應該根據相關風險並根據證據進行不同的監管。

I'm determined to manage our transformation responsibly and transparently through increasing our engagement with regulators, policymakers and all the relevant stakeholders. The responsible marketing practice, we've seen some markets are totally unacceptable, and we call for the support of governance and regulators to more effectively distinguish between responsible and irresponsible players. This will create a level playing field, addressing important issues such as underage (inaudible) and environmental impacts.

我決心透過加強與監管機構、政策制定者和所有相關利害關係人的接觸，以負責任、透明的方式管理我們的轉型。在負責任的行銷實踐中，我們看到一些市場是完全不可接受的，我們呼籲治理和監管機構的支持，以更有效地區分負責任和不負責任的參與者。這將創造一個公平的競爭環境，解決未成年人（聽不清楚）和環境影響等重要問題。

We are seeing encouraging progress with new category regulation around the world, including recognition of the role of tobacco harm reduction in major markets like the U.K. and New Zealand. New markets opening up to make smokeless alternatives accessible for consumers and a growing multi-category footprint with 55 markets now regulating more than one new category.

我們看到世界各地新類別監管取得了令人鼓舞的進展，包括在英國和紐西蘭等主要市場認識到減少菸草危害的作用。新市場不斷開放，為消費者提供無菸替代品，多類別足跡不斷擴大，目前有 55 個市場監管不只一種新類別。

I'm proud of our more fruit fronted engagement and advocacy actions take in the U.K. when we launched the multi-channel media campaign urging for better regulation enforcement around vaping products. So the vaping industry can support making smoke-free Britain a reality. Looking ahead, we plan to launch our refreshed responsible marketing principles and codes, demonstrating our commitment to a responsible new category approach. Effective enforcement is critical to the development of functional new category markets.

當我們發起多通路媒體活動，敦促加強對電子煙產品的監管時，我為我們在英國採取的更多以水果為主導的參與和宣傳行動感到自豪。因此，電子煙產業可以支持讓無菸英國成為現實。展望未來，我們計劃推出更新的負責任的行銷原則和準則，以展示我們對負責任的新類別方法的承諾。有效的執法對於功能性新品類市場的發展至關重要。

We are deeply concerned by the continued proliferation of illicit single-use vapour products in the U.S., which we estimate represent over 60% of the vapour markets. These are -- there are multiple levers available to the government agencies, state and local authorities to ensure proper regulatory enforcement.

我們對美國非法一次性蒸汽產品的持續擴散深感擔憂，我們估計美國非法一次性蒸汽產品佔蒸汽市場的 60% 以上。政府機構、州和地方當局可以使用多種手段來確保適當的監管執行。

During 2023, we saw a modest escalation in action against illicit products, including almost 4 million units capture or refuse entry into the U.S. and about USD 5 million in funds issued by the FDA. However, it's clear that much more needs to be done. Our U.S. teams are actively engaging with government agencies and federal and state law authorities, using all tools available to drive better enforcement and importantly, a level playing field.

2023 年，我們看到針對非法產品的行動略有升級，包括截獲或拒絕進入美國的近 400 萬件產品以及 FDA 發放的約 500 萬美元資金。然而，顯然還需要做更多的工作。我們的美國團隊正在積極與政府機構以及聯邦和州法律當局合作，利用所有可用的工具來推動更好的執法，重要的是，創造一個公平的競爭環境。

A recent example of progress is Louisiana, which has passed the state law establishing a directory of vapour products, which have either received or genuinely have a PMTA [pending]. Several other states have enacted similar laws with more [BU] spending. I'm also encouraged that the U.S. International Trade Commission has taken up our complaint and is investigating the import of illegal single-use vapour products. While we have not seen any meaningful impact nationally to date, we can clearly see that the pressure for effective enforcement is building.

最近取得進展的一個例子是路易斯安那州，該州通過了州法律，建立了蒸氣產品目錄，這些產品要么已收到，要么確實有 PMTA [待定]。其他幾個州也頒布了類似的法律，並增加了 [BU] 支出。我還感到鼓舞的是，美國國際貿易委員會已接受我們的投訴，並正在調查非法一次性蒸汽產品的進口。雖然迄今為止我們尚未在全國範圍內看到任何有意義的影響，但我們可以清楚地看到有效執法的壓力正在形成。

Now moving on to my fifth focus area to enhance our financial flexibility. We continue to deliver efficiencies through our established continuous improvement mindset. We are on track to generate at least GBP 1 billion of additional savings by 2025 with nearly GBP 500 million of already saved in 2023. This has played a critical role in offsetting the inflationary pressures.

現在轉向我的第五個重點領域，即增強我們的財務靈活性。我們透過既定的持續改善心態繼續提高效率。我們預計在 2025 年額外節省至少 10 億英鎊，而 2023 年已節省近 5 億英鎊。

We continue to seek and evaluate all opportunities to enhance balance sheet flexibility. And as part of this, we regularly review our stake in ITC. We recognize that we have a significant shareholding, which offers us the opportunity to release and reallocate some capital. Our shareholding in ITC has existed in one way or another since the early 1900s and was subject to numerous share capital change and regulatory restrictions.

我們繼續尋求和評估所有增強資產負債表靈活性的機會。作為其中的一部分，我們定期審查我們在 ITC 的股份。我們認識到我們擁有大量股權，這為我們提供了釋放和重新分配部分資本的機會。我們在 ITC 的股權自 1900 年代初以來就以這樣或那樣的方式存在，並受到多次股本變更和監管限制。

We have been actively working some time on completing the regulatory process required to give us the flexibility to monetize some of our shareholding and reallocate some capital. We will update you on this at the earliest opportunity. In addition, we are further optimizing our geographic footprint and have exited around 35 markets. This is in line with our plan to exit nonstrategic combustible markets where we don't see a near-term opportunity to execute our new category strategy.

一段時間以來，我們一直在積極努力完成所需的監管程序，以使我們能夠靈活地將部分股權貨幣化並重新分配部分資本。我們將盡快向您通報此情況。此外，我們正在進一步優化我們的地理足跡，並已退出約 35 個市場。這符合我們退出非戰略易燃市場的計劃，我們認為短期內沒有機會執行我們的新品類策略。

This means we will be selling fewer cigarettes annually with a limited impact on our P&L and resources are reallocated into higher return markets. We have significantly increased our free cash flow generation with 4 consecutive years of at least 100% operating cash conversion. This has enabled us to return a total of GBP 26 billion to shareholders over the last 5 years. We have made good progress on the leverage ending the year at 2.6x, adjusted net debt-to-adjusted EBITDA closer to the middle of our 2 to 3x target range.

這意味著我們每年銷售的捲菸數量將減少，對我們的損益影響有限，並且資源將重新分配到回報更高的市場。我們顯著增加了自由現金流的產生，連續 4 年營運現金轉換率至少為 100%。這使我們在過去 5 年裡向股東總共返還 260 億英鎊。我們在年底槓桿率達到 2.6 倍方面取得了良好進展，調整後淨債務與調整後 EBITDA 接近我們 2 至 3 倍目標範圍的中間值。

Over the next 5 years, we are on track to generate around GBP 40 billion of free cash flow before dividends. As we continue our transformation, our medium-term financial model will evolve. This will give us increased flexibility to allocate our capital to drive returns and reward shareholders and includes continue our 20-year track record of progressive dividend growth. Once the middle of our leverage target is reached, we will evaluate our options to return excess cash to shareholders, including the introduction of a sustainable share buyback.

未來 5 年，我們預計將產生約 400 億英鎊的股息前自由現金流。隨著我們繼續轉型，我們的中期財務模式將會演變。這將使我們能夠更靈活地分配資本，以推動回報並獎勵股東，並包括繼續保持我們 20 年股息累積成長的記錄。一旦達到槓桿目標的中間值，我們將評估向股東返還多餘現金的選擇，包括引入可持續的股票回購。

Moving on to my last area of focus to develop a more collaborative and inclusive culture. Guided by our refreshed corporate values, I'm clear that building on our strong foundation of integrity, collaboration and inclusivity, we will drive the culture we need to successfully transform BAT. As part of this, I am delighted to welcome our new executive and non-executive senior management members. They all bring diverse, high-quality industry knowledge and experience.

繼續我的最後一個重點領域，即發展更具協作性和包容性的文化。在我們更新的企業價值觀的指導下，我很清楚，在誠信、協作和包容性的堅實基礎上，我們將推動成功轉型 BAT 所需的文化。作為其中的一部分，我很高興歡迎我們新的執行和非執行高階主管。他們都帶來了多樣化、高品質的行業知識和經驗。

Soraya Benchikh, our incoming CFO, will start in May, and I would like to take this opportunity to express my thanks and appreciations to Javed for stepping up as Interim Finance Director alongside his ongoing role as Director, Digital Information.

我們即將上任的財務長 Soraya Benchikh 將於 5 月上任，我想藉此機會對 Javed 表示感謝和讚賞，他在目前擔任數位資訊總監的同時，還擔任臨時財務總監。

In summary, we have made significant progress on each of these areas of focus. However, there is much to do. I'm confident that the choice we have made at building strong foundations for future growth, and we deliver sustainable -- will deliver sustainable value for all our stakeholders, while we continue to reward shareholders with strong cash returns.

總之，我們在每個重點領域都取得了重大進展。然而，還有很多事情要做。我相信，我們為未來成長奠定堅實基礎而做出的選擇，以及我們實現永續發展的目標，將為所有利害關係人帶來可持續的價值，同時我們將繼續以強勁的現金回報回報股東。

And with that, I will hand over to Javed to take you through the details of our results.

接下來，我將由 Javed 向您詳細介紹我們的結果。

Thank you, Tadeu, and good morning, everyone. Our results demonstrate the resilience of our business. We delivered organic revenue growth of 3.1% with new category revenue up 21% and combustible price/mix of 6%. Adjusted profit from operations was up 3.1%, with operating margin up 60 basis points, driven by a strong improvement in new category contribution and our continuous focus on efficiencies. Adjusted diluted EPS grew by 4% or 1.1% on a current currency basis.

謝謝你，塔德烏，大家早安。我們的結果證明了我們業務的彈性。我們的有機收入成長了 3.1%，其中新類別收入成長了 21%，可燃價格/組合成長了 6%。調整後的營運利潤成長了 3.1%，營運利潤率成長了 60 個基點，這得益於新類別貢獻的強勁改善以及我們對效率的持續關注。調整後攤薄每股收益成長 4%，以目前貨幣計算成長 1.1%。

On an organic basis, excluding Russia and Belarus from both periods, adjusted profit from operations was up 3.9% and adjusted diluted EPS was up 5.2%. These results were delivered despite the absorption of a 2.5% transactional FX headwind. We continue to drive strong organic new category revenue growth. This performance clearly reflects the strength of our multi-category portfolio driven by Vuse and Velo.

在有機基礎上，將俄羅斯和白俄羅斯排除在兩個時期之外，調整後的營運利潤增長了 3.9%，調整後的攤薄每股收益增長了 5.2%。儘管吸收了 2.5% 的交易性外匯逆風，但仍取得了這些結果。我們持續推動新類別營收的強勁有機成長。這項表現清楚地反映了我們由 Vuse 和 Velo 驅動的多類別產品組合的實力。

As a result, we continue to transform rapidly with smokeless already reaching over 30% of our revenue in 24 markets. This represents nearly 1/3 of the 76 markets where we are currently present in new categories. And our transformation is even more advanced in many markets. Smokeless now represents 16.5% of group revenue, up 1.7 percentage points from 2022. Excluding our U.S. combustible business, smokeless now represents more than 1/4 of group revenue.

因此，我們繼續快速轉型，無菸已在 24 個市場占我們收入的 30% 以上。這占我們目前涉足新類別的 76 個市場的近 1/3。我們的轉型在許多市場甚至更加先進。無菸現在佔集團收入的 16.5%，比 2022 年成長 1.7 個百分點。

I will now share more details on our key category drivers. Market shares are available in the appendix. In Vapour, we extended our value share leadership with Vuse to 36.1% in tracked channels in the key Vapour markets. We continue to make good progress on driving profitability with Vapour now having a positive contribution in 4 of the 5 key markets.

我現在將分享有關我們關鍵類別驅動因素的更多詳細資訊。市場佔有率可參考附錄。在 Vapour 領域，我們在主要 Vapor 市場的追蹤管道中將 Vuse 的價值份額領先地位擴大至 36.1%。我們在提高獲利能力方面繼續取得良好進展，Vapor 目前在 5 個主要市場中的 4 個市場中做出了積極貢獻。

The fundamentals of the Vapour category as a reduced risk alternative for adult smokers are strongly positive. The total number of Vapour consumer is accelerating, and Vapour is the largest contributor to active new category usage, driven by both continued close system and single-use Vapour growth. In the U.S., our PMTAs for Vuse, Altos, 2 tobacco flavor products, remain under FDA review. These applications further built on the foundational size of our successful tobacco-flavored submission for Vuse Solo, Ciro and Vibe.

作為成年吸煙者的一種降低風險的替代品，電子煙​​類別的基本面是非常積極的。 Vapor 消費者總數正在加速成長，在持續封閉系統和一次性 Vapor 成長的推動下，Vapor 是活躍新類別使用的最大貢獻者。在美國，我們的 Vuse、Altos 兩種菸草香精產品的 PMTA 仍在接受 FDA 審查。這些應用程式進一步建立在我們成功提交 Vuse Solo、Ciro 和 Vibe 菸草口味的基礎規模之上。

We are confident of a successful outcome for the Vuse Alto PMTAs remaining under FDA review and consistent with the agency's most recently communicated time frame, expected to hear in the coming months. We are challenging the FDA market denial order for Vuse Alto menthol flavor and have recently been granted a permanent stay by the court.

我們對 Vuse Alto PMTA 的成功結果充滿信心，該結果仍在 FDA 審查中，並符合該機構最近傳達的時間框架（預計將在未來幾個月內聽到）。我們正在挑戰 FDA 對 Vuse Alto 薄荷醇香料的市場拒絕令，並最近被法院授予永久中止令。

Outside the U.S., we continue to approach the growing single-use Vapour segment in a responsible way in line with our international marketing principles and underwrite excess prevention guidelines as well as participating in take-back schemes for responsible disposal.

在美國以外，我們繼續根據我們的國際行銷原則，以負責任的方式對待不斷增長的一次性蒸汽細分市場，並承保過度預防指南以及參與負責任處置的回收計劃。

In Heated Products, glo reported revenue was down 2.5% and up 4.1% on an organic basis. While our organic volume grew 12% and our share of the combined Combustible and Heated Products category continue to grow, glo's Heated Product category volume share was down 110 basis points to 18.2%. Continued category volume share momentum in key AME markets, including Poland and Czech Republic, was offset by highly competitive markets in Japan and Italy.

在加熱產品方面，glo 報告營收有機下降 2.5%，成長 4.1%。雖然我們的有機銷量成長了 12%，而且我們在可燃和加熱產品類別中所佔的份額持續成長，但 glo 的加熱產品類別銷售份額卻下降了 110 個基點，至 18.2%。波蘭和捷克共和國等主要非洲和中東市場的品類銷售份額持續成長，但被日本和義大利競爭激烈的市場所抵銷。

As Tadeu highlighted, we have more to do, but I am pleased to say that our newest innovations, glo Hyper pro and veo, demonstrates our ability to bring innovative products to the market. This will be further supported over the medium term by our recent patent settlement.

正如 Tadeu 所強調的那樣，我們還有更多工作要做，但我很高興地說，我們最新的創新產品 glo Hyper pro 和 veo 展示了我們將創新產品推向市場的能力。從中期來看，我們最近的專利和解將進一步支持這一點。

Moving to Modern Oral, our portfolio continued to grow with Modern Oral volume up 33.6% and revenue up 39%, driven by further geographic expansion and innovation.

轉向 Modern Oral，在進一步的地理擴張和創新的推動下，我們的產品組合繼續成長，Modern Oral 銷量成長了 33.6%，營收成長了 39%。

We continue to grow our volume share of total oral, while our Modern Oral category share was down, mainly impacted by the U.S. We are encouraged by the strong results from our recent Velo pilot in New York, featuring a more premium brand expression and design and plan further rollouts in 2024.

我們在口腔總量中的銷售份額持續成長，而現代口腔品類份額則有所下降，主要是受到美國的影響。的品牌表達與設計，計劃在 2024 年進一步推出。

In addition, we remain confident of securing the PMTA for our Europe leading Velo 2.0 platform to support our long-term competitiveness in the U.S. Outside the U.S., we maintained clear leadership of Modern Oral category.

此外，我們仍然有信心為歐洲領先的 Velo 2.0 平台獲得 PMTA，以支持我們在美國的長期競爭力。

I'm delighted to share that in most markets, Velo is contributing to increase in category profitability with a fast payback period of less than 2 years. We continue to see a significant opportunity for Modern Oral in emerging markets with strong volume growth in Pakistan and Kenya.

我很高興與大家分享，在大多數市場中，Velo 正在以不到 2 年的快速投資回收期為提高品類獲利能力做出貢獻。我們持續看到現代口腔在新興市場的重大機遇，巴基斯坦和肯亞的銷售成長強勁。

Now turning to Combustible. Our cigarette volumes declined by 5.3% on an organic basis. Adjusted for market exited during the year, and our volume declined 4.6% compared to an industry decline of 3.4%. This difference is mainly due to lower U.S. industry volume and share loss due to our premium position and the impact of significant excise increases in Pakistan.

現在轉向可燃。我們的捲菸銷量有機下降了 5.3%。根據年內市場退出情況進行調整，我們的銷量下降了 4.6%，而產業下降了 3.4%。這種差異主要是由於我們的優質地位以及巴基斯坦消費稅大幅增加的影響導緻美國工業規模下降和份額損失。

Combustible price mix remained strong, up 6%, with pricing offset mainly by geographic mix. Together, this resulted in a 0.6% increase in organic revenues. Group volume share was flat with gains in AME, offset by APMEA and the U.S. Group value share was down 40 basis points, reflecting the impact of our commercial plans in the U.S. and losses in APMEA while we held share in AME.

可燃物價格組合依然強勁，上漲 6%，價格主要被地理組合所抵銷。總之，有機收入成長了 0.6%。集團銷售份額與 AME 收益持平，被 APMEA 抵消，美國集團價值份額下降 40 個基點，反映了我們在美國的商業計劃的影響以及我們持有 AME 份額時 APMEA 的損失。

We are performing very well in combustibles outside the U.S., where organic revenue increased by almost 7% with reinvigorated portfolios, refreshed brands and sharpened execution. This demonstrates the benefit of our global footprint and our ability to deliver in challenging environments.

我們在美國以外的易燃品領域表現非常出色，憑藉重振的產品組合、更新的品牌和強化的執行力，有機收入成長了近 7%。這證明了我們全球足跡的優勢以及我們在充滿挑戰的環境中提供服務的能力。

Turning now to the regions. In AME, we saw an outstanding delivery in 2023. Total organic revenues was up 13%, driven by higher revenue from combustibles, reflecting a resilient volume performance and pricing alongside continued growth across each new category, with revenue up 39%. AME is a true multi-category region, and smokeless products now represent 23% of regional revenue in markets where we are present. Adjusted profit from operations was up 10%, driven by the improved financial performance in key markets.

現在轉向地區。在AME，我們在2023 年實現了出色的交付。 39%。 AME 是一個真正的多品類區域，無菸產品目前占我們所在市場區域收入的 23%。受主要市場財務表現改善的推動，調整後營運利潤成長了 10%。

Moving to APMEA, where we saw strong financial delivery. Total revenue was up over 5% with a robust Combustible performance driven by pricing. Notably pricing in Pakistan more than offset the impact of excise-led volume decline, while volume growth continued in Bangladesh. Vapour and Modern Oral revenue were both up over 70%, which was partially offset by a decline in Heated Products, mainly in Japan, resulting in 3% new category growth for the region overall.

轉向 APMEA，我們看到了強勁的財務交付。由於價格驅動的強勁可燃性能，總收入增長了 5% 以上。值得注意的是，巴基斯坦的定價遠遠抵消了消費稅導致的銷售下降的影響，而孟加拉的銷售量持續成長。 Vapor 和 Modern Oral 營收均成長超過 70%，部分被加熱產品（主要在日本）的下降所抵消，導致該地區整體新品類成長 3%。

Smokeless products now represents around 20% of regional revenue in markets where we are present. Adjusted profit from operations in APMEA was up 7%, driven by strong pricing and continued efficiency gains. In the U.S., total revenue was down more than 4%, driven by continued macroeconomic pressure and the impact of illicit single-use vapes. Despite this, Vuse extended its value leadership of tracked channels, adding 470 basis points to reach 45.6%, with revenue up 14%.

目前，無菸產品約占我們所在市場區域收入的 20%。在強勁的定價和持續的效率提升的推動下，APMEA 的調整後營運利潤成長了 7%。在美國，由於持續的宏觀經濟壓力和非法一次性電子煙的影響，總收入下降了 4% 以上。儘管如此，Vuse 擴大了其在追蹤管道中的價值領先地位，增加了 470 個基點，達到 45.6%，收入成長了 14%。

In Modern Oral, Velo revenue declined, driven by lower volume. Adjusted profit from operations was marginally higher, up 0.4% with our operating margin expanding by 280 basis points as Vuse profitability and efficiency gains offset Combustible headwinds.

在現代口腔業務中，由於銷量下降，Velo 收入有所下降。調整後的營運利潤略有上升，成長了 0.4%，由於 Vuse 獲利能力和效率的提高抵消了可燃性不利因素，我們的營運利潤率擴大了 280 個基點。

U.S. combustible industry was down 7.5% or 8.6% on a sale to retail basis, excluding inventory movements. Beyond market secular decline, industry volume was mostly impacted by a combination of macroeconomic headwinds and the growth of illicit single-use vapes.

美國可燃物產業以零售銷售計算下降 7.5% 或 8.6%（不包括庫存變動）。除了市場長期下滑之外，產業銷售主要受到宏觀經濟不利因素和非法一次性電子煙成長的影響。

On top of the industry contributors, our volume performance was impacted by lower volume share as a result of our more premium skewed portfolio and the California flavor ban. As a result, our combustible volumes declined 11.3% in the U.S., more in line with the industry decline if you exclude the deep discount segment, where we do not participate.

除了行業貢獻者之外，我們的銷售表現還受到銷售份額下降的影響，這是由於我們更優質的產品組合和加州風味禁令造成的。因此，我們在美國的可燃物銷售量下降了 11.3%，如果排除我們不參與的深度折扣部分，則更符合行業下降趨勢。

Taking a step back to look at the broader U.S. context. While U.S. consumers face strong macroeconomic headwinds through 2022 and 2023, we are starting to see some very early signs of recovery with gas prices stabilizing and the gap between wage growth and inflation narrowing.

退後一步來看看更廣泛的美國背景。儘管美國消費者在 2022 年和 2023 年將面臨強勁的宏觀經濟阻力，但我們開始看到一些非常早期的復甦跡象，天然氣價格趨於穩定，薪資成長與通膨之間的差距縮小。

However, consumer confidence is recovering more slowly, and it is still significantly below pre-COVID levels as consumers continue to be impacted by the cumulative effect of inflation and higher interest rates on elevated levels of debt, resulting in lower discretionary income.

然而，消費者信心的恢復速度較慢，且仍顯著低於新冠疫情前的水平，因為消費者繼續受到通膨和高利率對債務水平上升的累積效應的影響，導致可自由支配收入下降。

Given this macroenvironment, the Premium segment has remained under pressure through 2023. As Tadeu highlighted, our commercial brands are working, and we are starting to deliver volume and value share recovery in the Premium segment, driven by Newport and Natural American Spirit. In addition, Lucky Strike continues to perform well in the Value segment.

鑑於這種宏觀環境，高端細分市場到2023 年仍面臨壓力。和價值份額的復甦。此外，Lucky Strike 在價值領域持續表現良好。

As a result, our volume share of total U.S. market is starting to stabilize. While returning our U.S. combustible business to consistent value growth will take time, we are making progress, and we will continue to implement our plans carefully and thoroughly in 2024. It is important to remember that overall elasticities remain stable compared with pre-COVID level at minus 0.4%, and affordability remains high.

因此，我們在美國市場總量中的份額開始穩定。雖然讓我們的美國可燃業務恢復持續的價值增長需要時間，但我們正在取得進展，我們將在2024 年繼續仔細徹底地實施我們的計劃。 ，整體彈性保持穩定-0.4%，承受能力仍然很高。

With our multi-category strategy and strong portfolio of brands, we are well positioned to benefit from macroeconomic improvement and a recovery in legal Vapour market once there is effective enforcement against illicit products.

憑藉我們的多品類策略和強大的品牌組合，一旦對非法產品進行有效執法，我們就能夠從宏觀經濟的改善和合法蒸汽市場的復甦中受益。

As announced at our trading update in December, we have taken a noncash impairment charge mainly relating to our acquired U.S. brands following the completion of our detailed year-end finalization process and adjusting for FX movements. The total charge recognized is GBP 27.3 billion.

正如我們在 12 月的交易更新中所宣布的那樣，在完成詳細的年終最終確定流程並根據外匯走勢進行調整後，我們已提列了主要與我們收購的美國品牌相關的非現金減值費用。確認的總費用為 273 億英鎊。

This recognizes the current macroeconomic pressures impacting the U.S. combustible industry and change in consumption patterns post-COVID, combined with the growth of illicit single-use Vapour products and uncertainty around the potential menthol ban. This approach is also consistent with our vision to build a smokeless world.

這認識到當前影響美國可燃物產業的宏觀經濟壓力以及新冠疫情後消費模式的變化，再加上非法一次性蒸汽產品的成長以及潛在薄荷醇禁令的不確定性。這種做法也符合我們建構無菸世界的願景。

Moving forward, our combustible brands will be amortized over a maximum of 30 years. As a result, our annual noncash amortization will increase by around GBP 1.4 billion from 2024, which will be treated as an adjusting item in line with our accounting policies.

展望未來，我們的可燃品牌將在最長 30 年內攤提。因此，我們的年度非現金攤銷將從 2024 年開始增加約 14 億英鎊，根據我們的會計政策，該攤銷將被視為調整項目。

Our acquired U.S. brand represent most of the group brands and trademarks on our balance sheet. And as such, we do not anticipate similar combustible brand value revisions moving forward. Importantly, these charges have no impact on our deleverage or our dividend and capital allocation flexibility.

我們收購的美國品牌代表了我們資產負債表上的大部分集團品牌和商標。因此，我們預期未來不會出現類似的易燃品牌價值修正。重要的是，這些費用對我們的去槓桿化或股利和資本配置的彈性沒有影響。

Returning to the Group performance. Operating margin expanded strongly, up 60 basis points, while also absorbing increased inflationary pressure and a 2.5% transactional FX headwind on profit. This was supported by improving new category profitability and additional efficiency savings.

回到集團業績。營業利潤率強勁擴張，成長了 60 個基點，同時也吸收了不斷增加的通膨壓力和 2.5% 的交易性外匯逆風對利潤的影響。這得益於新類別獲利能力的提高和額外的效率節省。

Turning now to EPS. We delivered constant currency adjusted diluted EPS growth of 4% and 5.2% on an organic basis. This reflects our resilient operating performance, continued strong ITC delivery and a lower number of shares. These were partly offset by increased net finance cost. The underlying tax rate was 24.5%, and with existing tax rates, we expect a rate of around 25% in 2024. Operating cash conversion was strong at 100%, reflecting our continued focus on cash delivery.

現在轉向每股收益。我們在有機基礎上實現了 4% 和 5.2% 的固定匯率調整稀釋每股收益成長。這反映了我們富有彈性的經營業績、持續強勁的 ITC 交付以及較低的股票數量。這些被淨財務成本增加部分抵銷。基本稅率為 24.5%，根據現有稅率，我們預計 2024 年稅率約為 25%。

As in 2023, we anticipate gross capital expenditure for 2024 to be below adjusted depreciation and amortization and around GBP 550 million and net finance costs of around GBP 1.9 billion. We continue to reduce leverage towards our target and have a manageable maturity profile with 98% of our net debt fixed, average maturity of just over 10 years and close currency matching.

與 2023 年一樣，我們預計 2024 年的總資本支出將低於調整後的折舊和攤銷，約為 5.5 億英鎊，淨財務成本約為 19 億英鎊。我們繼續降低槓桿率以實現我們的目標，並擁有可控的期限結構，98%的淨債務是固定的，平均期限剛剛超過10年，貨幣匹配密切。

Looking forward, we are making targeted investment choices to drive our medium-term sustainable growth algorithm. Together with continued macroeconomic pressures in the U.S., these investments will impact our 2024 delivery.

展望未來，我們正在做出有針對性的投資選擇，以推動我們的中期永續成長演算法。加上美國持續的宏觀經濟壓力，這些投資將影響我們 2024 年的交付。

As a result, we continue to expect to deliver low single-digit organic revenue and adjusted profit from operations growth, including a 2% transactional FX headwind. With our performance second half weighted for both revenue and profit, mostly driven by the continued impact of macro pressure and illicit single-use vapes in the U.S., continued investment in our U.S. commercial plans, mainly weighted to the first half and the phasing of investment in AME and APMEA. Extrapolating current spot rates, we anticipate currency translation to be a 3% headwind on full year adjusted profit from operations growth.

因此，我們繼續預計將實現低個位數的有機收入和來自營運成長的調整後利潤，包括 2% 的交易外匯逆風。我們下半年的業績以收入和利潤為主，主要是受到宏觀壓力和美國非法一次性電子煙的持續影響，對我們美國商業計劃的持續投資，主要是上半年的加權和分階段投資在AME 和APMEA。根據目前即期匯率推斷，我們預期貨幣換算將對全年調整後營運成長利潤產生 3% 的不利影響。

Beyond 2024, we expect to progressively improve our delivery to 3% to 5% organic revenue growth and a mid-single-digit profit from operations growth on an organic basis at a constant rate by 2026.

2024 年之後，我們預計到 2026 年，我們的有機收入成長將逐步提高至 3% 至 5%，營運利潤將維持在有機成長的中個位數。

Finally, as we continue our transformation journey, we are focused on the importance of disciplined capital allocation and strong shareholder return. We remain fully committed to our progressive dividend and have announced a 2% increase this year. And once the middle of our leverage range is reached, we will evaluate all opportunities to sustainably return excess cash to our shareholders.

最後，當我們繼續轉型之旅時，我們關注嚴格的資本配置和強勁的股東回報的重要性。我們仍然完全致力於我們的累進股息，並宣布今年增加 2%。一旦達到槓桿範圍的中間值，我們將評估所有機會，以可持續地將多餘現金回饋給股東。

With that, I will hand back to Tadeu.

說到這裡，我將把事情交還給塔德烏。

Okay. Thank you, Javed. I would like to take away 2 key messages from our presentation so far this morning. First, we have taken significant action to sharpen our execution, and we are making strong progress. And second, whilst we are facing some challenges, our performance remains resilient, reflecting the benefits of our broad portfolio.

好的。謝謝你，賈韋德。我想從今天早上到目前為止的演講中摘取兩個關鍵訊息。首先，我們採取了重大行動來提高執行力，並且正在取得強勁進展。其次，雖然我們面臨一些挑戰，但我們的績效仍然具有彈性，反映了我們廣泛的投資組合的優勢。

I would now like to spend a few moments outlining the opportunity and pathway ahead for BAT and why it's going to deliver strong outcomes for our shareholders. First, the nicotine market is growing. Based on our estimates using the latest industry data and trends, new category revenue will be incremental to combustibles. And going forward, new category volume will offset the decline in combustibles as smokers continue to switch to smokeless products.

現在，我想花一些時間概述英美菸草未來的機會和道路，以及為什麼它將為我們的股東帶來強勁的成果。首先，尼古丁市場正在成長。根據我們使用最新行業數據和趨勢的估計，新類別收入將增加至可燃物。展望未來，隨著吸菸者繼續轉向無菸產品，新類別的銷售將抵消可燃物的下降。

As a result, the quality of our top line growth will be much improved and will be volume driven. Our multi-category strategy is the right way to assess these growing markets. Consumers are choosing different alternatives to cigarettes. Markets and consumers are not homogeneous, and no single solution is capable of meeting all consumer preference.

因此，我們的收入成長品質將大幅提高，並且將由數量驅動。我們的多品類策略是評估這些不斷成長的市場的正確方法。消費者正在選擇不同的香菸替代品。市場和消費者並不相同，沒有單一的解決方案能夠滿足所有消費者的偏好。

In addition, data shows that as you move into higher [tier] markets, for example, Canada and the U.S., there is a much higher penetration with Vapour and Heated Products stand a greater chance of success in lower cigarette [strife] markets. Japan is a clear example of this. Executing on multi-category will deliver on our better tomorrow purpose. We are committed to our new vision to build a smokeless world and to become a predominantly smokeless business with 50% of our revenue in smokeless products by 2035.

此外，數據顯示，當您​​進入更高層級的市場（例如加拿大和美國）時，蒸汽和加熱產品的滲透率會更高，在較低的捲菸市場中取得成功的機會更大。日本就是一個明顯的例子。執行多類別將實現我們更美好明天的目標。我們致力於實現新願景，在 2035 年建立一個無菸世界，並成為一家以無菸為主的企業，50% 的收入來自無菸產品。

By deploying our global multi-category portfolio, we can actively encourage smokers to switch to better. To enable this, we have refined our group strategy to ensure a clear line of sight across the entire organization, anchored on 3 strategic pillars: quality growth; sustainable future; and dynamic business, that support the achievement of our goals.

透過部署我們的全球多類別產品組合，我們可以積極鼓勵吸菸者改用更好的菸具。為了實現這一目標，我們完善了集團策略，以確保整個組織有清晰的視線，並以三個策略支柱為基礎：品質成長；可持續的未來；和充滿活力的業務，支持我們實現目標。

My 6 areas of focus for sharper execution that I outlined earlier, are already fully aligned to these broader strategic pillars. And our newly launched values are a key enabler for the entire business, forming the core of who we are as BAT.

我之前概述的 6 個提升執行力的重點領域已經與這些更廣泛的策略支柱完全一致。我們新推出的價值觀是整個業務的關鍵推動者，構成了 BAT 的核心。

Our performance will be measured across each strategic pillar. We will continue to work on refining these measures and targets and to further align our proposals in our remuneration policy review this year. I look forward to sharing more details at a later date.

我們的績效將透過每個策略支柱來衡量。我們將繼續努力完善這些措施和目標，並在今年的薪酬政策審查中進一步調整我們的建議。我期待稍後分享更多細節。

I'm confident in the progression of our financial performance. The drivers of our growth will evolve through time as new categories become a greater percentage of our business. The range reflects expected CAGR growth throughout the period rather than annual targets. Our adjusted profit from operations growth will be enabled by increasing scale benefits driving new category contribution margin and combustible cost efficiencies driving positive operational leverage. This will enable Group margin to remain at a high level.

我對我們財務表現的進展充滿信心。隨著新類別在我們業務中所佔的比例越來越大，我們成長的驅動力將隨著時間的推移而演變。該範圍反映了整個期間的預期複合年增長率，而不是年度目標。我們調整後的營運成長利潤將透過擴大規模效益推動新類別貢獻利潤率和可燃成本效率推動積極的營運槓桿來實現。這將使集團利潤率保持在較高水準。

We will continue to provide guidance on an annual basis as with -- our transformation evolves. This growth algorithm supports our 50% smokeless revenue ambition by 2025, and we expect smokeless revenue to reach around 1/3 of our Group revenue by 2030.

我們將繼續每年提供指導，隨著我們的轉型不斷發展。這種成長演算法支持我們在 2025 年達到 50% 無菸收入的目標，我們預計到 2030 年無菸收入將達到集團收入的 1/3 左右。

In conclusion, 2023 was a year of resilient financial performance in line with our guidance. There is no doubt there is more to do. We are sharpening our execution to navigate our near-term market challenge and set the business up for a stronger future.

總之，2023 年是財務表現富有彈性的一年，符合我們的指引。毫無疑問，還有更多工作要做。我們正在加強執行力，以應對近期的市場挑戰，並為業務創造更美好的未來。

The target investment choice we are making in 2024 are building the foundations for long-term growth and value creation. There is an exciting opportunity ahead with growing nicotine industry value driven by new categories. And we are now seeing the evidence of our multi-category strategy will deliver long-term profitable growth. We are committed to rewarding shareholders throughout this transformation, driven by enhanced financial flexibility, discipline, capital allocation and stronger shareholder returns.

我們在 2024 年所做的目標投資選擇是為長期成長和價值創造奠定基礎。隨著新類別推動尼古丁產業價值不斷增長，未來存在著令人興奮的機會。我們現在看到的證據表明，我們的多品類策略將帶來長期的獲利成長。在增強的財務靈活性、紀律、資本配置和更強的股東回報的推動下，我們致力於在整個轉型過程中回報股東。

So we will now be joined on stage by Victoria for the questions-and-answer session. And Javed and I will be very happy to take your questions.

現在維多利亞將和我們一起上台參加問答環節。 Javed 和我將非常樂意回答您的問題。

Thank you, Tadeu, and good morning, everyone. If you've joined us via the webcast, you can type your questions directly into the online question box, or if you've joined the call, you can press [Star] 1 on your telephone keypad. We will first be taking questions from the telephone lines.

謝謝你，塔德烏，大家早安。如果您透過網路廣播加入我們，則可以直接在線上問題方塊中輸入您的問題，或者如果您已加入通話，則可以按電話鍵盤上的 [星號] 1。我們將首先透過電話線回答問題。

We have our first question from Richard Felton of Goldman Sachs.

我們的第一個問題來自高盛的理查費爾頓。

So 2 questions for me, please. The first one is on the U.S. Vapour category. I appreciate -- it's maybe difficult to put a precise number on it, but can you share any color on how quickly you think the overall U.S. Vapour category is growing, that's across both the illicit and the tracked channels, please?

請問我兩個問題。第一個是美國蒸氣類別。我很欣賞——可能很難給出一個精確的數字，但您能否分享一下您認為美國整體電子煙類別增長速度的任何顏色，無論是非法渠道還是跟踪渠道？

Then my second question is on U.S. combustibles. Thanks very much for sharing the encouraging data points on BAT's relative performance in the market. But overall, the category does still remain under a bit of pressure, and we're seeing larger volume declines than has been the case historically. So I know there's lots of moving parts. It's illicit Vapour,(inaudible) [at half] there's still some COVID unwind.

那麼我的第二個問題是關於美國的可燃物。非常感謝您分享有關英美菸草在市場上相對表現的令人鼓舞的數據點。但總體而言，該類別仍然面臨著一定的壓力，而且我們看到銷量下降幅度比歷史上的情況更大。所以我知道有很多活動部件。這是非法蒸氣，（聽不清楚）[半]仍有一些新冠病毒的釋放。

But as you think about the U.S. combustible market from a medium-term perspective, what do you see is the normalized rate of volume declines? And then given BAT's commercial strategy, your outlook on pricing in that market, do you still see U.S. combustibles as a source of EBIT growth?

但是，當您從中期角度思考美國可燃物市場時，您認為正常化的成交量下降率是多少？然後考慮到英美菸草公司的商業策略以及您對該市場定價的展望，您是否仍然認為美國可燃物是息稅前利潤成長的一個來源？

So let me digest your questions. The first one in the Vapour category. Vapour is growing substantially in the U.S. markets. We believe that we have now around 29 million audit Vapours in the U.S. And -- but most of the growth -- and I would say that we have grown something like 20% over the last year. So it's concentrate on the illegal [modest] products in the first place.

那麼讓我來消化一下你的問題。蒸氣類別中的第一個。蒸氣在美國市場大幅成長。我們相信，我們現在在美國有大約 2900 萬個審計 Vapor，而且是成長的大部分，我想說我們比去年增長了 20% 左右。因此，它首先關注的是非法[適度]產品。

We believe that there is currently a revenue pool in Vapour around GBP 10 billion, in which 60% of that is related to these illegal product. So we have built over time a very strong Vapour business in the U.S. As you saw in our disclosure, we have reached more than GBP 1 billion in terms of revenue. Our level of operating margin now is very similar to cigarettes -- not even gross margin, we 're referring to the operating margin. So it's a big business in the U.S. that we have built, and we are very proud of the efforts.

我們認為，目前 Vapor 的收入池約為 100 億英鎊，其中 60% 與這些非法產品有關。因此，隨著時間的推移，我們在美國建立了非常強大的蒸汽業務。我們現在的營業利潤率水準與捲菸非常相似——甚至不是毛利率，我們指的是營業利潤率。因此，這是我們在美國建立的一項大業務，我們對這些努力感到非常自豪。

For sure that we are frustrated with the fact that there is no current level playing field in the U.S. We know that the FDA is acting to improve enforcement. We believe that there is much more that needs to be done on that. When they finally finished the conclusion of the PMTAs will be a first step because then we can see the -- what are the illegal products that shouldn't be in the market in the first place.

當然，我們對美國目前沒有公平的競爭環境感到沮喪。我們認為，在這方面還有很多工作要做。當他們最終完成 PMTA 的結論時，這將是第一步，因為那時我們可以看到——哪些非法產品一開始就不應該進入市場。

But it's encouraging to see that some states are taking the matter on their own hands and passing bills to try to certificate PMTAs and linking that with products that they will be trying to enforce in their own local markets.

但令人鼓舞的是，一些州正在自己處理此事，並通過法案，試圖對 PMTA 進行認證，並將其與他們將在自己的當地市場上強制執行的產品聯繫起來。

We are, as we disclosed in the presentation, doing all we can to work together with authorities at Federal level, state local levels, and we involve with ITC, we [stay with] ITC to -- that eventually could come to a point where we can see some enforcement at import level, that would be ideal to say. But there is still a lot to do. But that's where we stand today on the Vapour in the U.S.

正如我們在演示中所披露的那樣，我們正在盡一切努力與聯邦一級、州地方各級當局合作，並且我們與 ITC 合作，我們[與] ITC 合作，最終可能會達到這樣的程度：我們可以看到進口層面的一些執法，這是理想的說法。但仍有許多工作要做。但這就是我們今天在美國 Vapor 的立場。

On the combustible side, you are right. There was a lot of change happening over the last, I would say, 4 years. What we came from, just as a reminder for all of us, is a decline around 4% to 5%, pretty much [secular] decline on the U.S. market. And then all of a sudden, in 2020, we saw an uptick of 1%, 1.5% because consumers were in lockdowns and receiving a lot of support at Federal level, state level, and this whole process has start to wind down in the following 2 years.

在易燃方面，你是對的。我想說，過去四年發生了很多變化。提醒我們所有人，我們的經驗是下降了 4% 到 5% 左右，幾乎是美國市場的[長期]下降。然後突然間，在2020 年，我們看到了1%、1.5% 的成長，因為消費者處於封鎖狀態，並在聯邦層級、州層級得到了很多支持，整個過程在接下來的時間裡開始逐漸放緩。

And then the -- and then on top of that, we have -- this whole process has been exacerbated by the conflict that start between Russia-Ukraine and the inflation that came at the back of that as well and with a lot of pressure on consumer purchase power.

然後，最重要的是，俄羅斯和烏克蘭之間的衝突以及隨之而來的通貨膨脹加劇了整個過程，並給俄羅斯帶來了巨大的壓力。

So what we are seeing today in the market is a situation where the macros are playing a heavy weight on that. Despite the fact that we are seeing early green shoots around the levels of unemployment, gas pricing going in the right direction, even inflation now reducing. We still see a lot of pressure on consumer purchasing power coming from high levels of debt. The cost of debt is still very high mortgage and we believe that will take some time to this whole process to unwind.

因此，我們今天在市場上看到的情況是，宏觀因素對此發揮了重要作用。儘管事實上我們看到失業率水準出現了早期的復甦，但天然氣價格正朝著正確的方向發展，甚至通膨現在也在下降。我們仍然看到消費者購買力面臨著來自高額債務的巨大壓力。抵押貸款的債務成本仍然非常高，我們相信整個過程需要一些時間才能緩解。

It's difficult to predict. We are not giving guidance for 2024, but it's easy to see that these macros is responsible for at least 2.5%, 3% of the decline in the U.S. market. So my best guess, if you want, for example, after we see some normalization of -- and we will see that because the economic cycles is always like that in the past, we have seen ups and downs. This will be no difference. We believe that the market could well be stabilizing around the 5% to 6% decline as a -- with a recognition that more and more smokers migrating to poly user products.

很難預測。我們不會給出 2024 年的指導，但很容易看出，這些宏觀因素對美國市場的下滑造成了至少 2.5%、3% 的影響。因此，我最好的猜測是，如果你願意，例如，在我們看到某種正常化之後，我們會看到，因為經濟週期總是像過去那樣，我們看到了起起落落。這不會有什麼區別。我們認為，隨著認識到越來越多的吸菸者轉向多用戶產品，市場很可能會穩定在 5% 至 6% 的下降幅度左右。

For sure, that's the -- [annoying], this whole process is the level of enforcement that the FDA needs to do in terms of a modest that has impact not just in the Vapour business that I just spoke about, but also in the Combustible business.

當然，這就是——[煩人]，這整個過程是 FDA 需要採取的適度執法水平，這不僅對我剛才談到的蒸氣業務產生影響，而且對可燃物業務也產生影響。

Next is Faham Baig Of UBS.

接下來是瑞銀集團的法漢姆貝格。

A couple from me as well, please. Can I begin with the stake in ITC? Could you please remind us where we are on the approvals to reduce the stake, the anticipated time line? And importantly, what we should expect BAT to use the net proceeds for? In other words, could the proceeds be returned to shareholders through a buyback?

請也從我這裡來幾張。我可以從 ITC 的股份開始嗎？您能否提醒我們減持股份的審批進度以及預計的時間表？重要的是，我們應該預期英美菸草公司將淨收益用於什麼目的？換句話說，收益能否透過回購的方式返還給股東？

And secondly, on heated tobacco, do you have any early readings on the market impact from the EU flavor ban? I think you mentioned that BAT was able to retain a share and in the back, I think you highlighted in Czech Republic your share has actually grown. So could you just maybe give us more color on how is BAT share faring as glo has historically been over-indexed to flavors?

其次，關於加熱菸草，您對歐盟香料禁令對市場的影響有什麼初步了解嗎？我想你提到英美煙草公司能夠保留一部分份額，在後面，我想你強調了在捷克共和國你的份額實際上已經增長了。那麼，您能否給我們更多關於英美菸草股價表現的信息，因為 glo 歷來對口味指數過高？

Let me start with your question, ITC. We're going to use that just to give some background, because it's important for us to remind where we are coming from. BAT is a very highly cash-generative company.

讓我先回答你的問題，ITC。我們將用它來提供一些背景知識，因為提醒我們來自哪裡很重要。英美菸草公司是一家現金生成能力非常強的公司。

Every single year we are able to generate more than 80 billion of free cash flow. So this means that -- when we consider our growing dividend approach, and without any major or material if you want, my M&A, on a business-as-usual base, we are able to deleverage the company around 0.2, 0.3x like we just subject to the FX at the year-end. We have just demonstrated that through 2023. And the reason why we have said that we want to at least reach the middle of the range is for basically 2 reasons.

每年我們都能產生超過 800 億的自由現金流。因此，這意味著，當我們考慮不斷增長的股息方法時，如果你願意的話，我的併購在沒有任何重大或實質性的情況下，在一切照舊的基礎上，我們能夠像我們一樣將公司去槓桿化約0.2 至0.3 倍僅受年底外匯影響。我們剛剛證明了這一點到 2023 年都是如此。

One is, the world has changed. And we have seen from 2022 an unprecedent increase in interest rates and that culminate with very high levels of the cost of capital compared with where we have been over the last decade, if you want. And this has -- even if we expect the interest rate start coming down, we've probably never been to the point that we were before. So the world has changed. The cost of capital is more expensive than it used to be. That's one point, it's clear.

一是，世界已經改變。從 2022 年開始，我們看到利率出現前所未有的成長，與過去十年相比，最終資本成本水準非常高。即使我們預計利率開始下降，我們可能從未達到以前的水平。所以世界已經改變了。資金成本比以前更昂貴。這是一點，很清楚。

The second point is very particular to BAT. We still have out there a headwind related to Canada, the CCAA, and they have been very clear and transparent about that. And we have currently something as $2.3 billion of cash trapped in Canada. And once we -- and if we finally -- and I cannot give much information around the process that is going through with the Plaintiffs in Canada, but we will expect the cash to go if we finally come to an agreement with the Plaintiffs and also eventually have some material headwind in terms of our earnings moving forward.

第二點對於BAT來說是非常特殊的。我們仍然面臨與加拿大 CCAA 相關的阻力，他們對此非常清楚和透明。目前我們有約 23 億美元的現金被困在加拿大。一旦我們——如果我們最終——我無法提供有關加拿大原告正在經歷的流程的太多信息，但如果我們最終與原告達成協議，我們預計現金將會消失，並且就我們未來的盈利而言，最終會遇到一些重大阻力。

So just to illustrate the point in a more simplistic way, if you strip out kind of back completely from our numbers, we would be seeing an uptick in terms of the ratio between 0.2 to 2.3x. So that's what we need the buffer. And I think that we have a very good plan to organically continue to drive down the leverage of the company and I have no concerns at all about that.

因此，為了以更簡單的方式說明這一點，如果您從我們的數字中完全剔除某種後面的內容，我們將看到比率在 0.2 到 2.3 倍之間上升。這就是我們需要的緩衝區。我認為我們有一個非常好的計劃來有機地繼續降低公司的槓桿率，我對此完全不擔心。

Now for sure that we are trying to find ways to create more flexibility in terms of our capital allocation decision. And the financial flexibility comes for -- with the program to try to divest some of the assets that we have in the Group. One of the reasons why we have exit more than 35 markets mainly in the last 2 years is also a consequence of that.

現在可以肯定的是，我們正在努力尋找方法，在資本配置決策方面創造更大的靈活性。財務靈活性隨之而來—透過計劃嘗試剝離我們在集團中擁有的部分資產。我們主要在過去兩年退出超過 35 個市場的原因之一也是這個原因。

We generate some proceeds on that, not really that material, has also the benefits that we have now refocused the Group moving forward -- in terms of resource allocation for the really growth markets moving forward and this is -- was very good exercise. We continue doing that. But we cannot ignore the fact that the major assets that we have in the balance sheet is the association with the ITC as an associate.

我們從中獲得了一些收益，雖然不是那麼物質，但也有好處，我們現在重新調整了集團的前進方向——就真正成長的市場的資源分配而言，這是非常好的練習。我們繼續這樣做。但我們不能忽視這樣一個事實，即我們資產負債表中的主要資產是與 ITC 作為聯營公司的關聯。

So that's the reason why we are talking about ITC in this release today. We have today -- we want to keep a level of influence in ITC that is transforming itself. Based on local legislation, we need to have as a minimum 25% of shareholders to keep veto rights we would like to do in the first phase. And this means that, given the fact that we have above [29%], there is space for us to reduce our shareholding.

這就是我們今天在本新聞稿中討論 ITC 的原因。今天，我們希望在不斷轉型的 ITC 中保持一定程度的影響力。根據地方立法，我們需要至少 25% 的股東才能保留我們在第一階段希望做到的否決權。這意味著，考慮到我們的持股比例高於[29%]，我們還有減持的空間。

Now what we need to do, and we have been working for some time on that with people on the ground closer with the authorities, mainly the Central Bank is trying -- and with the help of ITC trying to reconstruct all the history of the shareholder, albeit that dates back 100 years. And through this period of time, as you can imagine, we -- ITC has grown inorganically, so -- which is another complexity. We had bonus issues. We have share splits. We have subscriptions. So we also have change in the regulatory environment, mainly on the tobacco front.

現在我們需要做的是，我們已經與當地與當局關係密切的人們一起工作了一段時間，主要是中央銀行正在嘗試 - 並且在 ITC 的幫助下試圖重建股東的所有歷史，儘管這可以追溯到100 年前。在這段時間裡，正如你可以想像的那樣，我們——ITC 已經無機增長，所以——這是另一個複雜性。我們遇到了獎金問題。我們有股份分割。我們有訂閱。因此，我們的監管環境也發生了變化，主要是在菸草方面。

So we had to reconstruct whole history. And that's where we are working for some time now. Very difficult, very difficult for me to give you a time line on that other than to say that we are doing all we can to create this flexibility so the Board can make an assessment in terms of capital allocation decision moving forward.

所以我們必須重建整個歷史。這就是我們現在工作一段時間的地方。對我來說，很難給你們一個時間表，除了說我們正在盡我們所能創造這種靈活性，以便董事會可以對未來的資本分配決策進行評估。

Meanwhile, we are very supportive of our shareholding ITC. It's a fantastic company, well run, well managed, a very fast-growing company in a very fast-growing market with the most populous country in the world and contributing [a creative] for BAT in terms of earnings, also in terms of cash because they have a very good policy in terms of dividend payout. And the share price actually has doubled in the last 3 years. So that's where we stand in terms of our ITC holding.

同時，我們也非常支持我們入股ITC。這是一家出色的公司，運作良好，管理良好，是一家成長非常快的公司，位於世界上人口最多的國家的快速增長的市場中，在收入和現金方面為英美煙草公司做出了[創造性]貢獻因為他們在股利支付方面有非常好的政策。在過去三年裡，股價實際上翻了一番。這就是我們持有 ITC 的情況。

Second was HP ban.

其次是惠普禁令。

Yes, the HP product.

是的，惠普產品。

Flavor ban.

口味禁令。

Yes, the [new] EU flavor ban. Well, first of all, 50% -- around 50% of the consumables in heated products in Europe is flavored. In our case, we are over-indexed to that. It's more than 7% of our portfolio that we sell in Heated Products in Europe are flavored. So that's why it was important to launch this new [herbal] product that we did the first in the market, and we are very pleased with the level of competitiveness of this product and this resonate quite nicely with the consumers.

是的，[新]歐盟香料禁令。嗯，首先，歐洲加熱產品中約 50% 的消耗品是調味的。就我們而言，我們對此過度索引。我們在歐洲銷售的加熱產品中有超過 7% 是調味品。因此，推出這款我們在市場上率先推出的新[草藥]產品非常重要，我們對該產品的競爭力水平感到非常滿意，這與消費者產生了很好的共鳴。

We -- it's up to the European markets to set their own timing. We have seen some markets that has run down. So Czech, like you quoted, is one of them, Romania is another one. In those markets that we have seen that the flavor ban has already happened in the market. We managed to hold and sometimes even grow our overall share with veo, which is very [pleased] to see.

我們——這取決於歐洲市場來設定自己的時機。我們已經看到一些市場已經下滑。因此，正如您所引用的那樣，捷克是其中之一，羅馬尼亞是另一個。在我們看到的那些市場中，口味禁令已經在市場上發生了。我們設法保持甚至有時甚至增加了 veo 的整體份額，這是非常[高興]看到的。

There are some other important markets like Poland, Italy still to come. So this is a process that we expect to come to a conclusion in terms of introduction of these flavor bans by mid of this year, and we are very well placed with that because, not just veo, it's a great alternative, but also at the same time, we are rolling out this new device, which is the global Hyper pro, which has enhancement capabilities, new to the world display.

還有一些其他重要市場，如波蘭、義大利，還有待開發。因此，我們希望在今年年中之前就引入這些口味禁令得出結論，我們對此非常有信心，因為它不僅是 veo，也是一個很好的替代品，而且在同時，我們正在推出這款新設備，這就是全球Hyper pro，它具有增強功能，是世界顯示器的新產品。

Also the heating is much -- brings a higher temperature, hence more satisfying -- [much] satisfaction. The timing of the session is longer as well. So we are progressing in the right direction.

而且加熱效果也很好——帶來了更高的溫度，因此更令人滿意——[很多]滿足。會議的時間也更長。所以我們正在朝著正確的方向前進。

Another question from the telephone lines.

另一個問題來自電話線。

The next question goes to Gaurav Jain of Barclays.

下一個問題將詢問巴克萊銀行的高拉夫·賈恩 (Gaurav Jain)。

I have 3 questions. So first question is on the Newport pricing trends. So clearly, you have a stabilized share and the share is growing where it is coming at the expense of pricing. And there is a concern that what you are doing could lead to the breakdown of pricing discipline in the U.S. cigarette market. So could you please comment on that?

我有 3 個問題。第一個問題是關於紐波特的定價趨勢。很明顯，你擁有穩定的份額，而份額正在以犧牲定價為代價而增長。人們擔心你所做的事情可能會導緻美國捲菸市場定價紀律的崩潰。您能對此發表評論嗎？

The second question I have is on new product launches. So you are highlighting the Glo, new product launch. Can you also talk of new product launches in the other 2 segments, i.e., Modern Oral and e-cigarettes?

我的第二個問題是關於新產品的發布。因此，您正在重點介紹新產品 Glo 的發布。您能否談談其他兩個細分市場（即現代口服煙和電子煙）的新產品發布？

And the third question is on leverage. So your competitors are now -- they are all operating at less than 2x leverage, and that's where PM is also guiding to. So is the right leverage for you also closer to 2x rather than the middle of 2x to 3x?

第三個問題是關於槓桿。所以你的競爭對手現在——他們的槓桿率都低於 2 倍，這也是 PM 所指導的方向。那麼，適合您的槓桿是否也接近 2 倍，而不是 2 倍到 3 倍的中間值？

On Newport, it's -- we are doing -- we are introducing laddering the brand and which is aligned with the commercial [products] that we are seeing in the markets. So in that sense, we are not really doing something unique. It's just a recognition that when we have an economic downturn, our consumers have absolutely no safeguard to continue in the brand. So we introduced a soft pack. We pilot that in some states in 2023 very successfully, as we could see in the numbers that we have demonstrated and we expect to roll out this practice for -- throughout 2024.

在紐波特，我們正在做的就是引入梯子品牌，這與我們在市場上看到的商業[產品]保持一致。所以從這個意義上來說，我們並沒有真正做一些獨特的事情。這只是體認到，當我們經濟不景氣時，我們的消費者絕對沒有保障繼續使用該品牌。所以我們推出了軟包。我們將於 2023 年在一些州進行試點，非常成功，正如我們從所展示的數字中看到的那樣，我們預計將在 2024 年全年推廣這種做法。

And it's important, despite the fact that there is a mix impact on that, to keep consumers in the family, because we have seen from the past that when the economic cycle change, the consumer [uptrades]. And so it's important that we keep them in the family, and that's exactly what we want to achieve with the introduction of the -- laddering the Newport specifically. For sure, it's not just that we are doing.

儘管事實上存在多種影響，但重要的是讓消費者留在家庭中，因為我們從過去看到，當經濟週期發生變化時，消費者會[升級]。因此，讓他們留在我們的家庭中非常重要，而這正是我們想要透過引入新港梯子來實現的目標。當然，這不僅僅是我們在做的事情。

We are also assessing, reassessing some channels that we haven't been really present before as we should, like, for example, deeper discount channels, $1 channels that consumers start migrating to. And we are establishing some trade practice that can be competitive in those channels to support our brands as well. And on top of that, like I mentioned during the presentation, we are increasing our trade reps and all that has a positive consequence in the market.

我們也正在評估、重新評估一些我們以前沒有真正存在過的管道，例如更深層的折扣管道、消費者開始轉向的 1 美元管道。我們正在建立一些在這些管道中具有競爭力的貿易慣例，以支持我們的品牌。最重要的是，就像我在演講中提到的那樣，我們正在增加我們的貿易代表，所有這些都會對市場產生積極的影響。

So we are very thoughtful in the way we are doing that, very measured in the way we are doing that. That's why we said since day 1 that this is a process that will not take 1 month, will take more than that, and we are carry on doing what we need to do throughout 2024. The early signs are very positive on that space.

因此，我們在做這件事的方式上非常深思熟慮，我們做這件事的方式非常謹慎。這就是為什麼我們從第一天起就說，這個過程不會花費 1 個月，而是需要更多時間，我們將在 2024 年繼續做我們需要做的事情。

It's important just to make the point around the Combustible business, to see that the U.S. market -- the total nicotine in the U.S. market in terms of volume and revenue with all the issues that we faced in 2023 [are going]. I understand the focus on the Combustible because it's quite cash generative.

圍繞可燃業務闡明這一點很重要，要看到美國市場——美國市場上的尼古丁總量（就數量和收入而言）以及我們在 2023 年面臨的所有問題[正在解決]。我理解人們對可燃物的關注，因為它能產生大量現金。

But overall, nicotine space in the U.S. is still very favorable. And now for sure that a big chunk of that is going into the illegal products and modest disposals that we expect the enforcement to come through. And then once it comes through open up this white space and we'll be better positioned, better than anyone because we are the leading brand in Vapour as well. And then just making a link with your second question about other products.

但總體而言，美國的尼古丁空間仍然非常有利。現在可以肯定的是，其中很大一部分用於非法產品和我們期望執法完成的適度處置。一旦它打開了這個空白，我們就會比任何人都處於更好的位置，因為我們也是 Vapor 的領先品牌。然後與您關於其他產品的第二個問題建立連結。

We do have a product -- an improved product in Modern Oral in the U.S. We pilot this new refreshed, I would say, offer to consumers in terms of campaign, in terms of communication, the feel and look of the product, and very positively in New York, and we want to roll it out for -- throughout the year. We also have in Modern Oral other plans, very exciting plans in terms of new SKUs that will be launched in different markets where we have the freedom, not in the U.S., and that will be just supporting the -- our leading position because we have -- basically [there's] everywhere else other than the U.S.

我們確實有一個產品——美國現代口腔的改進產品。希望全年推出。我們在 Modern Oral 方面還有其他計劃，非常令人興奮的新 SKU 計劃，這些計劃將在我們有自由的不同市場推出，而不是在美國，這將支持我們的領先地位，因為我們有——基本上除了美國以外的地方都有。

In terms of Vapour, we have a strong pipeline coming from the second quarter of this year on the disposable side, on the -- but also in the refillable side, and with new technologies, and we'll be hitting the market very soon, and we are very positive around those innovations that are coming through.

就蒸氣而言，我們從今年第二季開始在一次性產品方面擁有強大的產品線，在可再填充方面，以及新技術，我們很快就會進入市場，我們對正在發生的這些創新非常積極。

And in terms of the leverage, like I said, the starting point for us to -- the 2.5x is basically for us to be considered as a starting point to have a bit more flexibility than we have currently.

就槓桿而言，正如我所說，我們的起點——2.5倍基本上是我們被視為比目前擁有更多靈活性的起點。

We have been -- it's not to say that we want to stick to and stay there in the 2.5. Like I said, I don't have major concerns about the leverage because we have this very cash-generative company. We can make improvements at about 0.2, 0.3 in any given year. So I think that once we get to the 2.5, we can have more flexibility than we currently have today. That's my whole point about the middle of the [time].

我們一直在——這並不是說我們想堅持並停留在 2.5 版本。就像我說的，我對槓桿沒有太大的擔憂，因為我們擁有這家非常能產生現金的公司。任何一年我們都可以提高 0.2、0.3 左右。所以我認為一旦我們達到 2.5，我們就可以比現在擁有更多的靈活性。這就是我關於[時間]中間的全部觀點。

And another question from the lines?

還有另一個問題嗎？

The next question goes to Rashad Kawan of Morgan Stanley.

下一個問題將由摩根士丹利的 Rashad Kawan 提出。

Just a couple from me. One, just to go back on heated tobacco. The settlement with PMI, can you just explain whether the legal disputes impacted your ability to innovate and how you think this will change your prospects, if at all, in the category going forward in the medium term?

只是我的一對。第一，只是重新開始使用加熱煙草。與 PMI 的和解，您能否解釋法律糾紛是否影響了您的創新能力，以及您認為這將如何改變您的前景（如果有的話），在中期的類別中？

And then my second question, just to drill down a bit more on U.S. combustibles. I know you don't want to give 2024 guidance on the U.S., but if I can ask things a bit differently. Given how you've preliminarily guided on 2025, do you expect the level of competitiveness in the marketplace and the down-trading that we're seeing to continue into next year?

然後是我的第二個問題，只是為了更深入地了解美國的可燃物。我知道您不想提供 2024 年有關美國的指導，但我能否提出一些不同的問題。鑑於您對 2025 年的初步指導，您預計市場的競爭水平和我們看到的降級交易會持續到明年嗎？

On the -- the IP deal with PMI was primarily related to settle all these pending case that we have around the globe. And we did that. It's important to say without any compensation -- monetary compensation. So for us, immediately this reflect into the case that we had against views out in Virginia, in the U.S. Also a number of litigations that were in dispute around -- growing in Europe and also views in Germany, to mention some.

與 PMI 達成的智慧財產權協議主要是為了解決我們在全球範圍內的所有懸而未決的案件。我們做到了。重要的是，沒有任何補償——金錢補償。因此，對我們來說，這立即反映到我們在美國維吉尼亞州反對觀點的案件中，還有一些有爭議的訴訟——在歐洲不斷增長，還有在德國的觀點，等等。

Now, this deal also gives us -- for both companies actually to give peace of mind for us to be focused on developing and accelerating the tobacco-harm reduction agenda and innovate [according] to that. So we are going to have more freedom to do it in the future, and this will be very positive, not just for BAT, but also for the industry as a whole because I think that we -- all the industry wants actually to have a better prospect of -- with the different stakeholders around the -- how important it is the tobacco-harm reduction and gets accelerated in the many jurisdictions. So this was a strong step forward, I have to say.

現在，這項交易也讓我們兩家公司真正安心，讓我們專注於制定和加速減少菸草危害議程，並據此進行創新。因此，我們將來將有更多的自由去做這件事，這將是非常積極的，不僅對英美煙草公司來說，而且對整個行業來說也是如此，因為我認為我們——整個行業實際上都希望有一個與周圍的不同利益相關者一起，更好地了解減少煙草危害的重要性，並在許多司法管轄區加快步伐。所以我不得不說，這是向前邁出的一大步。

The Combustible business, yes, you are right, it's difficult for me. But at the end of the day, I'm trying to -- and anyone can be doing this type of analogy. It's -- a lot of the downsides we are seeing today is related to the macroeconomics. And the macroeconomics, my expectation for next year is to improve compared with this year because we are seeing a rate discussions around eventually interest rates start to reduce.

可燃物產業，是的，你是對的，這對我來說很難。但歸根結底，我正在努力——任何人都可以做這種類比。我們今天看到的許多不利因素都與宏觀經濟有關。至於宏觀經濟，我對明年的預期是比今年有所改善，因為我們看到圍繞利率最終開始下降的利率討論。

We note that there is a correlation between consumer confidence and sales of cigarettes. And once we have seen in the past that once interest rates start coming down, the whole sentiment change and eventually, the confidence can recover back and this will have a positive impact on cigarettes.

我們注意到消費者信心與捲菸銷售量之間存在相關性。我們過去已經看到，一旦利率開始下降，整個情緒就會發生變化，最終信心會恢復，這將對捲菸產生正面影響。

So the assumption is that next year will be better. And for sure, one thing that is a big unknown, like I said before, is the enforcement around Modern disposal, which also impacts the Combustible side. But from the macro point of view, we would expect the business to improve from '25 onwards.

所以假設明年會更好。當然，正如我之前所說，有一個很大的未知數是現代處置的執行情況，這也會影響可燃方面。但從宏觀角度來看，我們預期業務從 25 年開始會有所改善。

I believe we've got another question from the line.

我相信我們還收到了另一個問題。

Yes, the next question goes to Jonathan Leinster of Societe Generale.

是的，下一個問題是向法國興業銀行的喬納森·倫斯特提出的。

A few questions, if I may. First of all, the launch of the glo Hyper pro, I mean, you mentioned that as a premium product. Does that mean it's actually going to be priced differently from previous iterations? And are the consumables any different? So is this a sort of step up to try and avoid the sort of price discount and we've seen in some of the key markets in terms of the sort of mainline glo Hyper?

如果可以的話，有幾個問題。首先，glo Hyper pro 的推出，我的意思是，您提到它是一款高階產品。這是否意味著它的定價實際上會與先前的迭代不同？消耗品有什麼不同嗎？那麼，這是否是一種嘗試避免價格折扣的舉措，我們在一些主要市場上看到了主線 glo Hyper 的情況？

Yes, Jonathan, the device is already being priced at a higher price compared with the previous one. Clearly, it's a much improved device, and we have space for that. So this is one. The consumables will be improved consumables. And this question depends a lot on the circumstances of each market. It's very difficult to give a kind of one-size-fits-all answer to that.

是的，喬納森，與之前的設備相比，該設備的定價已經更高。顯然，這是一個經過很大改進的設備，我們有足夠的空間。這是其中之一。消耗品將是改良的消耗品。這個問題很大程度取決於每個市場的情況。對此很難給出一種放諸四海皆準的答案。

We have something in our hands that we believe that is much improved compared in terms of consumer compared with the past. And if we're going to reassess always, there is a lot of activities in the below [vape] as we speak today in tobacco heating products. So it's not just a question of what we want to do, it's how we see the competitive landscape as usual in this case.

我們手中有一些東西，我們相信與過去相比，在消費者方面有了很大的改善。如果我們要始終重新評估，正如我們今天在菸草加熱產品中所說的那樣，下面的[vape]中有很多活動。因此，這不僅僅是我們想做什麼的問題，而是我們如何看待這種情況下的競爭格局。

I'm afraid we're out of time. Jonathan, sorry, I'll let you finish your questions.

恐怕我們沒時間了。喬納森，抱歉，我會讓你回答完你的問題。

I think he says another one. Yes, Jonathan.

我認為他說的是另一句話。是的，喬納森。

Very quickly -- well, probably not that quick. On the vaping markets across internationally, there's been a number of countries that have sort of formalized the market, having previously been sort of a bit of a gray area. Is that something that -- is there major markets out there which you expect to sort of formalize the vaping market, which would represent a real opportunity to you?

很快——嗯，可能沒那麼快。在國際電子煙市場上，有許多國家已經將市場正式化，而先前市場一直處於灰色地帶。您是否希望在主要市場上使電子煙市場正規化，這對您來說是一個真正的機會？

Well, we are seeing -- we are encouraged to see some markets taking the tobacco-harm reduction in a very [prominent] basis. We just saw, for example, New Zealand, very supportive of vaping, which is very favorable. Even the U.K., they want to regulate further, but they have all in mind that it's a very important tool to reduce the incidence of smokers in general. Canada is the same. It's a question of how you fine-tune the regulation.

嗯，我們看到——我們很高興看到一些市場在非常[顯著]的基礎上減少菸草危害。例如，我們剛剛看到紐西蘭非常支持電子煙，這是非常有利的。即使是英國，他們也想進一步監管，但他們都牢記，這是減少整體吸菸者發病率的一個非常重要的工具。加拿大也是一樣。這是一個如何微調監管的問題。

We are seeing more recently country like Chile where we are expecting at any time them to open up the market for Vapour. And we note that there are discussions in big markets like Brazil. For example, they have a public consultation running as we speak in terms of if they will regulate or not Vapour. Turkey is another big market. In our current assumptions, we are not expecting any of those big markets to make a bigger moves in the short-term. But we expect this as we progress and to -- and this is one focus area, like I said, the sustainable [future] about that.

最近我們看到像智利這樣的國家，我們希望他們隨時開放 Vapour 市場。我們注意到巴西等大市場正在進行討論。例如，正如我們所說，他們正在就是否監管 Vapour 進行公眾諮詢。土耳其是另一個大市場。根據我們目前的假設，我們預期這些大市場在短期內不會有更大的波動。但隨著我們的進步，我們預計會出現這一點——正如我所說，這是一個重點領域，可持續的[未來]。

We expect to have more and more evidence-based science fact-based points to engage with all of those different authorities, governments in order to be able to unlock the potential that could make a tremendous positive impact for the current smokers in those markets.

我們期望有越來越多的基於證據的科學事實觀點與所有這些不同的當局、政府進行接觸，以便能夠釋放可能對這些市場中當前吸煙者產生巨大積極影響的潛力。

So as I was saying, I'm afraid we've run over time, but I think we've got one more question on the line, which we will take.

正如我所說，恐怕我們已經超時了，但我認為我們還有一個問題需要解決，我們會回答這個問題。

The next question go to Joffrey Bellicha Meller of Bank of America Merrill Lynch.

下一個問題將由美銀美林的喬弗里·貝利查·梅勒提出。

I have a couple of questions. The first one is on ITC's hotel demerger. I was wondering how you were thinking about your future stake in that company and if you would be immediately disposing it, assuming that you get the regulatory approvals for it?

我有幾個問題。第一個是關於 ITC 的飯店分拆。我想知道您如何看待您未來在該公司的股份，以及假設您獲得監管部門的批准，您是否會立即出售它？

And the second question is on the U.S. combustibles margins when you discussed about the laddering of the products. Are the introduction of the soft packs, for example, with Newport as margin -- at the same level of margin as your regular Newport products?

當您討論產品階梯時，第二個問題是關於美國可燃物的利潤。例如，以 Newport 作為利潤的軟包裝的推出是否與常規 Newport 產品的利潤水平相同？

So Joffrey, the first question, what I have to say to you is that there is no strategic intent from BAT to be a minority shareholder of hotel in the Indian market. Now you have to bear in mind that they are floating 60% of the hotel business. ITC is floating 60% of the hotel business. Early to know exactly the timing of that. We expect to be more towards the end of the year and the decision around what to do with the stake will be taken on Board -- by the Board when it comes the time. And so I'm going to leave the question on the hotel.

那麼喬弗里，第一個問題，我要對你說的是，英美煙草公司並沒有成為印度市場酒店少數股東的戰略意圖。現在你必須記住，他們浮動了 60% 的酒店業務。 ITC 持有飯店業務 60% 的股權。很早就知道確切的時間。我們預計將在今年年底前做出更多決定，屆時董事會將就如何處理這些股份做出決定。所以我要把問題留給飯店。

The second one is -- the laddering in Newport, we cannot keep the same level of margins of the price at the very top. But more important, when we consider the level of cannibalization that we have and more important, the retention of consumers, we think that is a very positive move, and that's why we have pilots, we have taken our conclusions and then we start to roll out throughout 2024.

第二個是──紐波特的階梯，我們無法在最高價格維持相同水準的利潤。但更重要的是，當我們考慮到我們的蠶食程度，更重要的是，消費者的保留時，我們認為這是一個非常積極的舉措，這就是為什麼我們有試點，我們已經得出了我們的結論，然後我們開始滾動2024 年全年推出。

Thank you very much, Tadeu and Javed. And many thanks to everybody for all your questions. I apologize that we haven't managed to get to the questions online, but we -- the IR team will be responding to these later on today. And with that, I'll hand back to you, Tadeu, for closing remarks.

非常感謝塔德烏和賈維德。非常感謝大家提出的所有問題。很抱歉，我們未能在線解答這些問題，但我們——IR 團隊將在今天晚些時候回复這些問題。接下來，塔德烏，我將請您作結束語。

Okay. Thank you all for listening today. To close, while there is still much to do. I'm confident the investment choice we are taking will drive sharp execution and build the foundation for long-term growth and value creation.

好的。感謝大家今天的收聽。關閉，雖然還有很多事情要做。我相信我們所採取的投資選擇將推動敏銳的執行力，並為長期成長和價值創造奠定基礎。

Thank you again for joining us today. I look forward to keeping you updated as we -- our progress and we build a smokeless world together.

再次感謝您今天加入我們。我期待著向您通報我們的進展以及我們共同建立無菸世界的最新情況。