英美煙草 (BTI) 2022 Q4 法說會逐字稿

內容摘要

BTV 是一家投資其他公司的公司,重點是那些從事新產品研發或擴展業務的公司。 2022年,他們完成了5筆新投資,並有2筆退出。他們在 2022 年的投資包括 Sanity Group 和 Charlotte's Web。他們還監控監管環境,了解可能影響其業務的變化。

BTV 也有銷售香煙的業務。 2022年,由於美國市場整體需求下降以及2021年出售伊朗業務,捲菸銷量下降了5.2%。儘管捲菸銷量下降,但捲菸價格依然堅挺,抵消了部分收入下降。

2022 年集團價值份額持平,但數量份額下降了 20 個基點。該公司的美國業務受到宏觀經濟逆風的影響,但他們跨價格層級的目標投資組合品牌使他們能夠在其他市場實現強勁的財務業績。

煙草業一直在下滑,但高端細分市場更具彈性。它將這歸功於自然美國精神和紐波特的力量。它還指出,Lucky Strike 一直是美國增長最快的品牌。儘管如此,由於宏觀經濟狀況,該行業仍面臨挑戰。通貨膨脹率高,利率上升,天然氣價格高,導致實際可支配收入下降。

該公司計劃投資於特定品牌和州,目標是從經濟復甦中獲益。預計集團營業利潤率將強勁增長,公司已成功吸收通脹壓力增加和 1.5% 的交易外匯逆風對利潤的影響。

BTV是一家投資其他公司的公司,也有銷售香煙的業務。 2022年,由於美國市場整體需求下降以及2021年出售伊朗業務,捲菸銷量下降了5.2%。儘管捲菸銷量下降,但捲菸價格依然堅挺,抵消了部分收入下降。公司計劃維持 65% 的股息支付率,並將槓桿率保持在 2 至 3 倍調整後淨債務/調整後 EBITDA 的目標範圍內。他們還計劃使用股票回購來抵消更高利率的影響。

完整原文

使用警語:中文譯文來源為 Google 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主

  • Jack Marie Henry David Bowles - CEO, Member of Management Board & Director

    Jack Marie Henry David Bowles - CEO, Member of Management Board & Director

  • Good morning, everyone, and welcome to our 2022 full year results presentation. I am Jack Bowles, Chief Executive of BAT. And with me this morning is Tadeu Marroco, our Group Finance and Transformation Director. I am proud to share with you today that we have reached an exciting inflection in our transformation.

    大家早上好,歡迎來到我們的 2022 年全年業績發布會。我是 BAT 的首席執行官傑克鮑爾斯。今天早上和我一起的是我們的集團財務和轉型總監 Tadeu Marroco。今天,我很自豪地與大家分享,我們的轉型已經達到令人興奮的轉折點。

  • Over the last few years, New Categories have rapidly become a significant part of our business and are now a strong contributor to our financial performance. As a result, last week, we announced our new regional structure and management team realignment to drive us through the next phase of our transformation journey.

    在過去幾年中,新品類已迅速成為我們業務的重要組成部分,現在是我們財務業績的重要貢獻者。因此,上週我們宣布了新的區域結構和管理團隊重組,以推動我們進入轉型之旅的下一階段。

  • Our presentation today will take on a new format. First, I will give some highlights of the progress. Tadeu will take you through the details of our results, highlighting how, in 2022, we continued transforming the business, delivered strong financial results and successfully navigated a challenging macroeconomic environment. Then I will talk about how we are taking BAT's strategy to the next level and why we are confident in bringing forward our New Category profitability target by 1 year to 2024 as our transformation accelerates.

    我們今天的演講將採用一種新的形式。首先,我將重點介紹一些進展情況。 Tadeu 將帶您詳細了解我們的業績,重點介紹我們如何在 2022 年繼續轉型業務、交付強勁的財務業績並成功度過充滿挑戰的宏觀經濟環境。然後我將談談我們如何將 BAT 的戰略提升到一個新的水平,以及為什麼我們有信心隨著我們的轉型加速將我們的新類別盈利目標提前 1 年到 2024 年。

  • As usual, once Tadeu and I have taken you through the presentation, there will be an opportunity to ask questions. Before we start, I would like to take this opportunity to give you an update on the progress of the transfer of our businesses in Russia and Belarus. As we have already shared, we are working as quickly as possible to transfer the businesses in compliance with international and local laws.

    像往常一樣,一旦 Tadeu 和我帶您完成了演示,您將有機會提問。在我們開始之前,我想藉此機會向您介紹一下我們在俄羅斯和白俄羅斯的業務轉移的最新進展。正如我們已經分享的那樣,我們正在盡快根據國際和當地法律轉移業務。

  • We are now in advanced discussion with the joint management distributor consortium with a view to completing the transfer in 2023. Our priority remains supporting our employees in the affected areas and safeguarding their employment. Upon completion, BAT will no longer have a presence in Russia and Belarus. With that, I take it that you have all seen the disclaimers on Slide 2 and Slide 3.

    我們現在正在與聯合管理經銷商財團進行深入討論,以期在 2023 年完成轉移。我們的首要任務仍然是支持我們在受影響地區的員工並保障他們的就業。完成後,BAT 將不再在俄羅斯和白俄羅斯開展業務。至此,我認為你們都已經看到了幻燈片 2 和幻燈片 3 上的免責聲明。

  • I am delighted to share with you today our progress and delivery against the three priorities we set out in 2019. We are, delivering a step change in New Categories; enabling us to bring forward our profitability target; driving value from our combustible business; and at the same time, significantly simplifying BAT, our structure, processes and ways of working to drive greater efficiency.

    今天,我很高興與大家分享我們在 2019 年制定的三個優先事項方面取得的進展和交付情況。我們正在實現新類別的重大變革;使我們能夠提前實現盈利目標;從我們的易燃業務中推動價值;同時,顯著簡化 BAT、我們的結構、流程和工作方式,以提高效率。

  • Since 2018, we have grown our noncombustible product consumer base by 30% on a CAGR basis, reaching 22.5 million in 2022. With, again, more than 4 million added in the last 12 months, and we remain confident on our target of 50 million consumers of noncombustible products by 2030. Over the last 4 years, we have grown New Category revenues by a CAGR of 33%, and we are confident in achieving our GBP 5 billion revenue target by 2025, regardless of the transfer of our business in Russia and Belarus.

    自 2018 年以來,我們的非可燃產品消費群以復合年增長率計算增長了 30%,到 2022 年達到 2250 萬。過去 12 個月再次增加了 400 萬以上,我們對 5000 萬的目標仍然充滿信心到 2030 年成為不燃產品的消費者。在過去的 4 年裡,我們的新類別收入以 33% 的複合年增長率增長,我們有信心到 2025 年實現 50 億英鎊的收入目標,無論我們在俄羅斯的業務是否轉移和白俄羅斯。

  • Noncombustible revenue as a percentage of group revenue has more than doubled from 7% in 2018 and to 15% today and grew by over 2% points in 2022. So in just a few years, with Vuse and glo, we have built two GBP 1 billion global brands. This is an enviable performance relative to any global CPG brand.

    非可燃性收入佔集團收入的百分比從 2018 年的 7% 增加了一倍多,到今天的 15%,並在 2022 年增長了 2% 以上。因此,在短短幾年內,借助 Vuse 和 glo,我們建立了兩個 GBP 1億全球品牌。相對於任何全球 CPG 品牌,這是令人羨慕的表現。

  • In 2022, Vuse further built on its market leadership position in vapour and delivered the third consecutive year of over 40% revenue growth. Glo continues to outpace global THP category growth delivering in excess of 25% revenue growth. In Modern Oral, Velo delivered another year of over 40% constant currency revenue growth and maintained its leadership position in Europe.

    2022 年,Vuse 進一步鞏固了其在蒸汽領域的市場領導地位,並連續第三年實現超過 40% 的收入增長。 Glo 繼續超過全球 THP 類別的增長,實現超過 25% 的收入增長。在 Modern Oral 中,Velo 又實現了超過 40% 的固定貨幣收入增長,並保持了其在歐洲的領先地位。

  • ESG is at the center of our strategy. All this is supported by a clear environmental focus, underpinned by science for each of our New Category brands and is actively contributing to our group sustainability targets. We continue to develop and publish a substantial body of scientific evidence. And we are investing in the R&D of products that have lower environmental impact and improve circularity.

    ESG 是我們戰略的核心。所有這一切都得到了明確的環境重點的支持,以我們每個新品類品牌的科學為基礎,並積極為我們的集團可持續發展目標做出貢獻。我們繼續開發和發布大量科學證據。我們正在投資研發具有較低環境影響和提高循環性的產品。

  • This means we are seeking to design products that are easier to dismantle at end of life, improve ways to enhance reusability and recyclability and convert to more sustainable packaging. More broadly, as we reduce the health impact of our business, we must also drive progress across all other material ESG areas. And in 2022, we appointed Mike Nightingale as our first Chief Sustainability Officer, implemented a new double materiality led approach to inform on sustainability agenda and continue to embed sustainability across BAT.

    這意味著我們正在尋求設計在使用壽命結束時更容易拆卸的產品,改進提高可重複使用性和可回收性的方法,並轉變為更可持續的包裝。更廣泛地說,隨著我們減少業務對健康的影響,我們還必須推動所有其他重要 ESG 領域的進步。在 2022 年,我們任命 Mike Nightingale 為我們的第一任首席可持續發展官,實施了一種新的以雙重重要性為主導的方法來為可持續發展議程提供信息,並繼續在 BAT 中融入可持續發展。

  • While we recognize we have a lot more to do, we are making very good progress. In 2022, we achieved our renewable energy use targets 3 years early, which is why we have increased our target by -- to 50% by 2023 -- by 2030, sorry. In addition, we are on track to reach our gender representation target across our wider workforce with women in management roles at 41%, and we are delighted to be included in the 2023 Bloomberg Gender Equality Index.

    雖然我們認識到我們還有很多工作要做,但我們正在取得非常好的進展。 2022 年,我們提前 3 年實現了可再生能源使用目標,這就是為什麼我們將目標提高了——到 2023 年達到 50%——抱歉,到 2030 年。此外,我們有望在更廣泛的員工隊伍中實現我們的性別代表目標,女性擔任管理職位的比例達到 41%,我們很高興被納入 2023 年彭博性別平等指數。

  • Alongside this, our continued efforts have been recognized with the CDP A rating in climate change and inclusion in the Dow Jones Sustainability Index for the 21st consecutive year. Central to our purpose is reducing the health impact of our business. In our established markets, we continue to transform at speed with noncombustible already representing over 30% of our revenue in a total of 11 markets, where we have been most active with our multi-category strategy.

    除此之外,我們的持續努力得到了 CDP A 氣候變化評級的認可,並連續第 21 年被列入道瓊斯可持續發展指數。我們的核心目標是減少我們業務對健康的影響。在我們的成熟市場中,我們繼續快速轉型,在總共 11 個市場中,不可燃產品已經占我們收入的 30% 以上,我們在這些市場中的多類別戰略最為活躍。

  • And we expect more markets to exceed this 30% level in 2023 as we take our transformation to the next level. I'm especially proud that since 2020, we have improved New Category contribution by nearly GBP 700 million while also investing over GBP 4.5 billion. Our New Category model is now meaningfully contributing to group results and our progress to date makes us confident that we will achieve group profitability in 2024, 1 year early. Our transformation continues to be fueled by combustible value growth.

    隨著我們將轉型提升到一個新的水平,我們預計到 2023 年會有更多市場超過這個 30% 的水平。令我感到特別自豪的是,自 2020 年以來,我們將新品類的貢獻提高了近 7 億英鎊,同時還投資了超過 45 億英鎊。我們的新類別模型現在對集團業績做出了有意義的貢獻,我們迄今為止取得的進展使我們有信心在 2024 年提前一年實現集團盈利。我們的轉型繼續受到可燃價值增長的推動。

  • Over the last 4 years, we have delivered robust revenue, profit and value share growth, while significantly reducing complexity to drive further efficiencies. We have also delivered a total of GBP 1.9 billion of annualized cost savings over the last 3 years through Quantum, nearly doubled our initial GBP 1 billion target. Project Quantum has enabled new ways of working that are now fully embedded within BAT.

    在過去的 4 年裡,我們實現了強勁的收入、利潤和價值份額增長,同時顯著降低了複雜性以進一步提高效率。在過去 3 年中,我們還通過 Quantum 每年節省了總計 19 億英鎊的成本,幾乎是我們最初 10 億英鎊目標的兩倍。 Project Quantum 啟用了新的工作方式,這些方式現在已完全嵌入到 BAT 中。

  • In addition, our strategy has enabled us to materially increase our free cash flow generation with 4 consecutive years of at least 100% operating cash conversion. As a result, we have been able to return a total of GBP 19.2 billion to shareholders through dividends alone. Over the last 4 years, which is around 30% of our current market capitalization. We know that innovation and transformation is fed by a broad diversity of views and experiences.

    此外,我們的戰略使我們能夠連續 4 年至少 100% 的運營現金轉換率顯著增加自由現金流的產生。因此,我們僅通過股息就能夠向股東返還總計 192 億英鎊。在過去的 4 年裡,這大約是我們目前市值的 30%。我們知道,創新和轉型源於廣泛多樣的觀點和經驗。

  • Over the last 4 years, we increasingly attracted new talent to BAT. With over 3,000 new capabilities hires focused on areas of science, innovation, ESG, digital and data analytics. While at the same time, we have accelerated our diversity agenda with 47% of our new hires being female. We have also improved our new hire turnover to a level well below market norms. I am proud that our achievements are being recognized externally, including most recently being certified a Global Top Employer for the sixth consecutive year. So we have come a long way on A Better Tomorrow journey, and I'm proud of what we have achieved. Our strong momentum has continued in 2022.

    在過去的 4 年裡,我們越來越多地吸引新人才加入 BAT。擁有超過 3,000 名新員工,專注於科學、創新、ESG、數字和數據分析領域。同時,我們加快了多元化議程,新員工中有 47% 是女性。我們還將新員工流動率提高到遠低於市場標準的水平。我很自豪我們的成就得到了外部認可,包括最近連續第六年被認證為全球傑出雇主。因此,我們在 A Better Tomorrow 旅程中取得了長足的進步,我為我們所取得的成就感到自豪。我們的強勁勢頭在 2022 年得以延續。

  • I will now hand over to Tadeu, who will take you through the details of our 2022 financial performance. Tadeu?

    我現在將交給 Tadeu,他將向您詳細介紹我們 2022 年的財務業績。塔杜?

  • Tadeu Luiz Marroco - Finance & Transformation Director, Member of Management Board and Executive Director

    Tadeu Luiz Marroco - Finance & Transformation Director, Member of Management Board and Executive Director

  • Thank you, Jack. I'm delighted to share more details on how we have delivered on our guidance in 2022. I'm proud to say, as Jack has highlighted, that we are accelerating the transformation of our business and delivering robust financial results while successfully navigating an increasingly challenging macro environment as we move it through the year.

    謝謝你,傑克。我很高興分享更多關於我們如何在 2022 年實現我們的指導的細節。我很自豪地說,正如傑克強調的那樣,我們正在加速業務轉型並提供強勁的財務業績,同時成功駕馭日益增長的在我們度過這一年的過程中,充滿挑戰的宏觀環境。

  • Our reported results were impacted by a number of mostly noncash one-off items, including a full year noncash impairment of our business in Russia and Belarus, a provision recognized in respect of the DOJ and OFAC investigations and restructuring charge driven by Project Quantum. These were partially offset by VAT credits in Brazil relating to prior periods.

    我們報告的業績受到許多非現金一次性項目的影響,包括我們在俄羅斯和白俄羅斯的業務的全年非現金減值,一項在 DOJ 和 OFAC 調查以及 Project Quantum 驅動的重組費用方面確認的準備金。這些被巴西與前期相關的增值稅抵免部分抵消。

  • To better understand the key drivers of our performance, we will now focus on constant currency adjusted results unless otherwise stated. In 2022, we delivered revenue growth of 2.3%, driven by a New Category growth of 37% and the strong combustible price mix of nearly 6 -- 5%. Profit from operations was up 4.3%, driven by a reduction in New Category losses of nearly GBP 600 million and continued Quantum savings. Altogether, we achieved 150 basis points increase in our operating margin at current rates. This drove adjusted diluted EPS up 5.8% or 12.9% on a current currency basis.

    為了更好地了解我們業績的主要驅動因素,除非另有說明,否則我們現在將重點關注經貨幣調整後的不變結果。 2022 年,我們實現了 2.3% 的收入增長,這得益於 37% 的新品類增長和近 6-5% 的強勁可燃物價格組合。運營利潤增長 4.3%,這得益於新類別損失減少近 6 億英鎊以及 Quantum 的持續節省。總而言之,我們的營業利潤率以目前的速度增長了 150 個基點。這推動調整後的攤薄每股收益按當前貨幣計算增長 5.8% 或 12.9%。

  • Turning to New Categories. We delivered strong revenue growth with all three categories growing in excess of 25%, driven by share growth, innovation and geo expansion. This demonstrates the importance of a global multi-category strategy with strong brands and great products in the right markets.

    轉向新類別。在份額增長、創新和地域擴張的推動下,我們實現了強勁的收入增長,所有三個類別的收入均增長超過 25%。這證明了在合適的市場上擁有強大品牌和優質產品的全球多品類戰略的重要性。

  • I will now share more details on our key category drivers. Full market shares across our key markets are available in the appendix. In Vapour, we extended our value share leadership position with views achieving 35.9% in the key vapour markets, up 2.5 percentage points. In the U.S., Vuse is strengthening its #1 position, reaching 40.9% value share, up 8.4 percentage points.

    我現在將分享有關我們關鍵類別驅動程序的更多詳細信息。附錄中提供了我們主要市場的全部市場份額。在蒸汽方面,我們擴大了價值份額領導地位,在主要蒸汽市場的觀點達到 35.9%,上升了 2.5 個百分點。在美國,Vuse 正在鞏固其第一的位置,達到 40.9% 的價值份額,上升 8.4 個百分點。

  • We further -- we expect further upside in the U.S. going forward, driven by existing vapour consumers switching to products that receive marketing authorization from FDA, together with increased enforcement. In addition, given the excise advantage of vapour over combustibles, we see a strong runway of growth as consumers can benefit from significant savings.

    我們進一步 - 我們預計美國未來會進一步上漲,這是由於現有的蒸汽消費者轉向獲得 FDA 營銷授權的產品以及加強執法。此外,鑑於蒸汽相對於可燃物的消費稅優勢,我們看到了強勁的增長通道,因為消費者可以從顯著的節省中受益。

  • In Europe, our closed system value share, excluding disposables grew strongly and is now over 64%. In Canada, we extended our value share leadership position, growing 8.9 percentage points to around 90%. We launched the group's first connected vapour device Vuse ePod2 plus driving increased pod consumption. Through our growing scale, we are making continued progress on driving profitability in vapour reaching a positive contribution in 3 of the 5 key markets in 2022.

    在歐洲,我們的封閉系統價值份額(不包括一次性用品)增長強勁,目前已超過 64%。在加拿大,我們擴大了價值份額的領先地位,增長了 8.9 個百分點,達到 90% 左右。我們推出了該集團首款聯網蒸汽設備 Vuse ePod2 plus,推動了煙彈消費的增長。通過不斷擴大的規模,我們在推動蒸汽盈利能力方面不斷取得進展,到 2022 年將在 5 個主要市場中的 3 個市場做出積極貢獻。

  • Growth in the global vapour category has accelerated, driven by more than disposables, which have expanded the category. We launched our modern disposable, Vuse Go, with a premium price positioning and volumes which are accretive to our ePod platform. We have rapidly rolled out Vuse Go and are already the value share #2 in the U.K., France, South Africa and Germany. In addition, we are starting to see some accelerating poly-usage with modern disposables coming from THP, which creates a significant opportunity for us.

    受一次性用品的推動,全球蒸汽類別的增長加速,擴大了這一類別。我們推出了我們的現代一次性用品 Vuse Go,其價格定位和銷量都很高,這對我們的 ePod 平台來說是增值的。我們迅速推出了 Vuse Go,並且已經在英國、法國、南非和德國的價值份額中排名第二。此外,我們開始看到來自 THP 的現代一次性用品的一些加速多用途,這為我們創造了一個重要的機會。

  • We are approaching more than disposables in a responsible way, supported by our well-embedded marketing practice, including age verification process for retail and take back schemes. In THP, glo's sequential revenue growth accelerated in the second half, consumable volume growth outpaced the industry 1.7x. The continued momentum of glo Hyper drove category volume share in key THP markets, up 1.4 percentage points to reach 19.4%.

    在我們根深蒂固的營銷實踐的支持下,我們以負責任的方式處理的不僅僅是一次性用品,包括零售年齡驗證流程和回收計劃。在 THP 中,glo 的收入環比增長在下半年加速,耗材量增長超過行業 1.7 倍。 glo Hyper 的持續發展勢頭推動了主要 THP 市場的品類銷量份額上升 1.4 個百分點,達到 19.4%。

  • All key European markets continued to grow strongly. In Japan, glo's volume share of the total nicotine market reached 7.4%, up 60 basis points with a record glo share in December. glo Hyper X2 is delivering an enhanced product experience with positive early results in Japan. We broadened our price laddering with new Lucky Strike consumables, complementing our existing ranges. We have also expanded our multi-category offering with a Velo city pilot, delivering attractive margins. This further demonstrates the strength of our consumer-centric approach with more to come in 2023.

    所有主要歐洲市場繼續強勁增長。在日本,glo 在整個尼古丁市場的銷量份額達到 7.4%,增長 60 個基點,12 月份 glo 份額創歷史新高。 glo Hyper X2 正在提供增強的產品體驗,並在日本取得了積極的早期成果。我們通過新的 Lucky Strike 消耗品擴大了我們的價格階梯,補充了我們現有的範圍。我們還通過 Velo 城市試點擴大了我們的多類別產品,提供了可觀的利潤率。這進一步證明了我們以消費者為中心的方法的優勢,2023 年還將推出更多方法。

  • Turning to Modern Oral, where revenue grew strongly at 46%. In Europe, we remain the market leader in 15 markets with aggregate European volume share broadly stable at 69%.

    轉向 Modern Oral,其收入強勁增長 46%。在歐洲,我們仍然是 15 個市場的市場領導者,歐洲總銷量份額大致穩定在 69%。

  • In the U.S., the market remains more at around 2.5% of total nicotine value and highly competitive. Revenue was up as we pivoted to drive value, reducing promotional support for the brand and prioritize investment behind Vuse. In order to be well positioned for the future, we have submitted a PMTA for a new Velo product. We are also excited about the significant opportunity for Modern Oral in emerging markets.

    在美國,市場仍然保持在尼古丁總價值的 2.5% 左右,並且競爭激烈。隨著我們轉向推動價值、減少對品牌的促銷支持並優先投資 Vuse,收入有所增加。為了為未來做好準備,我們已經提交了新 Velo 產品的 PMTA。我們也對 Modern Oral 在新興市場的重大機遇感到興奮。

  • We are particularly proud of Velos performance in Pakistan, now our third largest Modern Oral market by volume. Enabled by powerful digital activations and innovations with local flavors, Velo has reached a monthly volume of over 40 million pouches. In 2022, we rapidly scaled up our business and move it to localize production in markets driving the lowest COGS across the Velo brand.

    我們對 Velos 在巴基斯坦的表現感到特別自豪,巴基斯坦現在是我們按銷量計算的第三大現代口腔醫學市場。借助強大的數字激活和具有當地風味的創新,Velo 的月銷量已超過 4000 萬袋。 2022 年,我們迅速擴大了業務規模,並將其轉移到市場本地化生產,從而推動整個 Velo 品牌的銷貨成本最低。

  • As a result, Velo's gross margins improved significantly during the year. Together with our other pilots, this progress gives us confidence in our ability to unlock future emerging marketing opportunities. Alongside significant investments in our New Category transformation, we continue to explore opportunities Beyond Nicotine, notably in the fast emerging well-being and stimulation space.

    因此,Velo 的毛利率在年內顯著提高。與我們的其他試點項目一起,這一進展使我們對我們釋放未來新興營銷機會的能力充滿信心。除了對我們的新類別轉型進行重大投資外,我們還繼續探索尼古丁以外的機會,特別是在快速興起的健康和刺激領域。

  • BTV has completed 22 investments since launch. In 2022, this included 5 new investments and 2 exits. We are building world-class R&D together with our partners at Organigram, and we continue to explore opportunities to expand our cannabis ecosystem. This included a noncontrolling minority stake in Sanity Group and an investment in Charlotte's Web in 2022, as we continue to monitor change in the regulatory environment. Our approach provides us with evolving capability for the future across both New Categories and Beyond Nicotine.

    BTV自推出以來已完成22筆投資。 2022 年,這包括 5 項新投資和 2 項退出。我們正在與我們在 Organigram 的合作夥伴一起建設世界一流的研發,我們將繼續探索擴大我們的大麻生態系統的機會。這包括 Sanity Group 的非控股少數股權以及 2022 年對 Charlotte's Web 的投資,因為我們將繼續監測監管環境的變化。我們的方法為我們提供了跨越新類別和超越尼古丁的未來發展能力。

  • Turning now to combustibles. Our volume declined by 5.2%, mainly due to the lower U.S. industry volume exacerbated by the partial unwind of inventory in 2022, and the sale of our Iranian business in 2021. Cigarette pricing remained strong, up 10.4%, offset mainly by geographic mix. Together, this resulted in a 0.6% decrease in revenue.

    現在轉向可燃物。我們的銷量下降了 5.2%,主要是由於 2022 年庫存的部分解除以及我們在 2021 年出售伊朗業務加劇了美國行業銷量的下降。捲菸定價依然強勁,上漲 10.4%,主要被地域組合所抵消。總之,這導致收入下降 0.6%。

  • Group value share was flat with the continued strong performance in the U.S. and APME offset by lower value share in Europe and AMSSA. Volume share was down 20 basis points. Whilst our U.S. business was impacted mainly by macroeconomic headwinds, our target portfolio brands across price tiers enabled the delivery of a robust financial performance across APME, AMSSA and Europe.

    集團價值份額持平,美國和 APME 的持續強勁表現被歐洲和 AMSSA 較低的價值份額所抵消。銷量份額下降了 20 個基點。雖然我們的美國業務主要受到宏觀經濟逆風的影響,但我們跨價格層級的目標投資組合品牌使我們在 APME、AMSSA 和歐洲實現了強勁的財務業績。

  • Turning now to the regions. In Europe, New Category revenue was up 43%, driven total revenue up 7%. Europe is a true multi-category region. Noncombustible revenue already accounts for around 20% of total revenue and continues to grow fast. Combustible revenue grew 1.2%, driven by strong pricing, partially impacted by the reallocation of the North Africa Area to APME.

    現在轉向區域。在歐洲,新品類收入增長 43%,帶動總收入增長 7%。歐洲是一個真正的多類別區域。非可燃性收入已佔總收入的20%左右,並繼續快速增長。受強勁定價的推動,可燃物收入增長 1.2%,部分受到北非地區重新分配給 APME 的影響。

  • Profit was up over 7% with improving New Category contribution and further cost savings as a result of Quantum. In APME, New Category revenue was up 10%, with total revenue up 7.7%. Combustible revenue grew nearly 8%, while with resistant -- resilient volume benefiting from the emerging markets recovered post-COVID. Profit was up 3% with a robust combustibles performance, partially offset by negative geo mix and the disposable of the Iranian business.

    由於 Quantum 提高了新類別的貢獻並進一步節省了成本,利潤增長了 7% 以上。在 APME,新類別收入增長 10%,總收入增長 7.7%。可燃物收入增長了近 8%,同時受益於新興市場在 COVID 後恢復的堅韌-彈性銷量。可燃物業務表現強勁,利潤增長 3%,部分被負面的地域組合和伊朗業務的一次性處理所抵消。

  • In AMSSA, New Category revenue was up 48% and was a strong contributor to the revenue growth of around 5%. Combustible revenue was up nearly 4%, driven by strong pricing and resilient volume. Profit was up over 4%. Turning to the U.S. Our total nicotine value share was up 40 basis points to over 37% driven by views. New Category revenue was up 52%.

    在 AMSSA,新類別收入增長了 48%,是收入增長約 5% 的重要貢獻者。在強勁的定價和彈性銷量的推動下,可燃物收入增長了近 4%。利潤增長超過 4%。轉向美國。在觀點的推動下,我們的尼古丁總價值份額上升了 40 個基點,達到 37% 以上。新類別收入增長了 52%。

  • Vuse continue to extend value share leadership and is the fastest-growing brand in total nicotine in the U.S. Combustible industry volume was down around 10%, mainly reflecting post-COVID normalization of consumption patterns and macroeconomic deterioration through the year. Our volume was down 15.5%, additionally, reflecting the partial unwind of our prior year inventory movements from share loss and lower retail inventory levels across the industry at year-end.

    Vuse 繼續擴大價值份額領導地位,是美國尼古丁總量增長最快的品牌。燃燒行業銷量下降了約 10%,主要反映了 COVID 後消費模式的正常化和全年宏觀經濟的惡化。此外,我們的銷量下降了 15.5%,這反映出我們上一年的庫存變動因年底時整個行業的份額損失和較低的零售庫存水平而部分平倉。

  • Over the last 3 years, industry volume was declined in line with historical levels at around 5% CAGR. The premium industry segment remained resilient with volume share declining by only 50 basis points. As a result of the increased impact of macroeconomic headwinds, the low-end segment grew volume share by 90 basis points. In this challenging environment, our value share grew 10 basis points despite volume share declining by 30 basis points.

    在過去 3 年中,行業銷量以 5% 左右的複合年增長率下降,與歷史水平一致。高端行業部分保持彈性,銷量份額僅下降 50 個基點。由於宏觀經濟逆風的影響增加,低端市場的銷量份額增長了 90 個基點。在這個充滿挑戰的環境中,儘管銷量份額下降了 30 個基點,但我們的價值份額增長了 10 個基點。

  • Value share growth was driven by the continued strength of Natural American Spirit and Newport, which, together, drove premium value share up 20 basis points. In addition, Lucky Strike was the fastest-growing combustible brand in both volume and value share terms in the U.S. reaching an exit share of nearly 3%. This more than offset losses in Pall Mall at the total industry level.

    價值份額的增長是由 Natural American Spirit 和 Newport 的持續強勁推動的,它們共同推動保費價值份額上升了 20 個基點。此外,好彩是美國銷量和價值份額增長最快的可燃品牌,退出份額達到近 3%。這足以抵消 Pall Mall 在整個行業層面的損失。

  • In 2022, our U.S. pricing remained strong, up 10%. At the consumer retail level, our average price in the year was up 5.6%, lower than key industry peers and significantly low elevated consumer price inflation, as we activated target commercial plans to support our consumers. Despite the more challenging macroeconomic backdrop, our profit was up 3.5%, with operating margin up 330 basis points to 53.7%. This was driven by continued improvement in New Category contribution from both Vuse and Velo alongside cost savings initiatives. Taking a step back to look at the broader U.S. context. U.S. consumers faces strong macroeconomic headwinds in 2022, with record inflation, 7 interest rate hikes and high gas price resulting in real disposable income falling by nearly 7%.

    2022 年,我們在美國的定價依然強勁,上漲了 10%。在消費品零售層面,我們今年的平均價格上漲了 5.6%,低於主要行業同行,並且由於我們啟動了目標商業計劃來支持我們的消費者,因此消費價格通脹顯著降低。儘管宏觀經濟背景更具挑戰性,但我們的利潤增長了 3.5%,營業利潤率增長了 330 個基點,達到 53.7%。這是由 Vuse 和 Velo 對新類別貢獻的持續改進以及成本節約舉措推動的。退後一步,看看更廣泛的美國背景。美國消費者在 2022 年面臨強勁的宏觀經濟逆風,通貨膨脹創歷史新高、加息 7 次和高油價導致實際可支配收入下降近 7%。

  • Looking into 2023, we are starting to see some very early signs of recovery with gas prices stabilizing, levels of unemployment remaining low and the gap between wage growth and inflationary. Most notably, elasticities remained stable at 0.4% comparable to pre-COVID levels and affordability remains high. Through revenue growth management, we have target investment in specific brands, channels and states with price laddering across all brands.

    展望 2023 年,我們開始看到一些非常早期的複蘇跡象,包括天然氣價格企穩、失業率保持低位以及工資增長與通脹之間的差距。最值得注意的是,彈性保持穩定在 0.4%,與 COVID 之前的水平相當,而且負擔能力仍然很高。通過收入增長管理,我們對特定品牌、渠道和狀態進行了目標投資,所有品牌的價格階梯。

  • We expect the U.S. economy to stabilize as we progress through the year. And together with the unwind of our 2021 inventory movement, we expect our performance to be second half weighted. With our multi-category strategy and strong portfolio of brands, we are well positioned to benefit from macroeconomic recovery. Group operating margin expanded strongly, up 150 basis points on an adjusted current rate basis.

    我們預計美國經濟將隨著今年的進展而趨於穩定。加上我們 2021 年庫存變動的解除,我們預計我們的業績將在下半年加權。憑藉我們的多品類戰略和強大的品牌組合,我們有能力從宏觀經濟復甦中受益。集團營業利潤率強勁增長,在調整後的當前利率基礎上增長了 150 個基點。

  • We successfully absorbed increased inflationary pressure and a 1.5% transactional FX headwind on profit. This was supported by our strong progress towards New Category and Quantum savings. Our improved New Category contribution was largely driven by increasing scale, leading to operating leverage and further automation, reducing cost of goods with all three New Categories in all regions contributing.

    我們成功地吸收了增加的通脹壓力和 1.5% 的交易外匯逆風對利潤的影響。這得益於我們在新類別和 Quantum 儲蓄方面取得的巨大進展。我們改進的新品類貢獻主要是由於規模擴大,導致運營槓桿和進一步自動化,降低商品成本,所有地區的所有三個新品類都做出了貢獻。

  • In addition, our growing brand equity has enabled us to increase pricing on both device and consumables supported by insights from our digital tools. We have reached an inflection point in our New Category model. Having invested significantly in the base, we are now in a growth period, where we can invest more and deliver improved profitability. In 2023, we will capitalize on our momentum and further invest in our transformation to accelerate our innovation cadence and drive faster geographic expansion.

    此外,我們不斷增長的品牌資產使我們能夠在數字工具的洞察力支持下提高設備和消耗品的定價。我們的新品類模型已經到了拐點。在對基地進行了大量投資後,我們現在正處於增長期,我們可以在這個時期進行更多投資並提高盈利能力。 2023 年,我們將乘勢而上,進一步投資於我們的轉型,以加快我們的創新節奏並推動更快的地域擴張。

  • And with that, we expect to continue to improve New Category contribution in 2023 and are confident in delivering our target of profitability ahead of plan in 2024. Alongside, GBP 1.9 billion savings delivered through Quantum, we continue to drive further simplification. Moving forward, we will deliver efficiencies through our established continuous improvement mindset to offset inflationary pressures and fuel our transformation.

    因此,我們預計將在 2023 年繼續提高新類別的貢獻,並有信心在 2024 年提前實現盈利目標。此外,通過 Quantum 節省了 19 億英鎊,我們將繼續推動進一步簡化。展望未來,我們將通過既定的持續改進思維來提高效率,以抵消通脹壓力並推動我們的轉型。

  • In addition, we are committed to reporting no further significant P&L impact from adjusting items related to restructuring programs in the medium term. Turning now to EPS. We delivered constant currency adjusted diluted EPS growth of 5.8%. This reflects our robust operating performance, the benefit of the continued recovery in ITC post-COVID and the share buyback, which more than offset increased net finance costs and tax.

    此外,我們承諾在中期報告與重組計劃相關的調整項目不會對損益產生進一步的重大影響。現在轉向 EPS。我們實現了 5.8% 的不變貨幣調整後攤薄每股收益增長。這反映了我們強勁的經營業績、ITC 後 COVID 持續復甦的好處以及股票回購,這足以抵消增加的淨財務成本和稅收。

  • The underlying tax rate was 24.8%. And with existing tax rates, we expect a similar rate of around 25% in 2023. Operating cash conversion was strong at 100% reflecting our focus on cash delivery. As in 2022, we expect gross CapEx for 2023 to be below adjusted depreciation and amortization at around GBP 600 million CapEx. We continue to reduce leverage within the 2 to 3x corridor and have a manageable maturity profile with 97% of our net debt fixed average maturity of around 10 years and close currency matching.

    基礎稅率為24.8%。根據現有稅率,我們預計 2023 年的稅率將達到 25% 左右。經營現金轉換率高達 100%,反映出我們對現金交付的關注。與 2022 年一樣,我們預計 2023 年的總資本支出將低於調整後的折舊和攤銷,約為 6 億英鎊的資本支出。我們繼續在 2 至 3 倍範圍內降低杠桿率,並擁有可控的期限結構,我們 97% 的淨債務固定平均期限約為 10 年,並且貨幣匹配緊密。

  • BAT is sheltered from unprecedented interest rate rise, but it's not immune. While the majority of our net debt is fixed we have an approximately 18% exposure to fluctuating interest rates when you consider cash holdings and refinancings. Our average cost of debt is 4%, which is below the current market rates. So we expect to see the impact of higher rates in our net finance costs in 2023 and moving forward.

    BAT 不受前所未有的利率上升的影響,但它也不能倖免。當您考慮現金持有和再融資時,雖然我們的大部分淨債務是固定的,但我們有大約 18% 的利率波動風險。我們的平均債務成本為 4%,低於當前市場利率。因此,我們預計會在 2023 年及未來看到更高利率對我們淨財務成本的影響。

  • As a result, we expect 2023 full year net finance costs should be around GBP 1.9 billion subject to both FX and interest rate volatility. The Board actively reviews our capital allocation priorities, taking into account macroeconomic factors and potential regulatory and litigation outcomes. Our framework includes continuing to grow the dividend with an average payout ratio of 65% over the long term, maintaining leverage within our target corridor of 2 to 3x adjusted net debt/adjusted EBITDA, potential bolt-ons M&A opportunities and share buybacks.

    因此,我們預計 2023 年全年淨財務成本應約為 19 億英鎊,具體取決於匯率和利率波動。董事會積極審查我們的資本分配優先事項,同時考慮宏觀經濟因素和潛在的監管和訴訟結果。我們的框架包括繼續增加股息,長期內平均派息率為 65%,將槓桿率維持在調整後淨債務/調整後 EBITDA 的 2 至 3 倍目標範圍內,潛在的補強併購機會和股票回購。

  • At this time, the Board has decided to take a pragmatic approach. Given our incremental investment plans in 2023 to further accelerate our transformation and in light of the uncertain macro environment, higher interest rates, outstanding litigation and regulatory matters, the Board has decided to prioritize strengthening the balance sheet. This will provide greater business resilience while continuing to support future financial agility as we aim to reduce leverage more quickly towards the middle of our targeted 2 to 3x corridor.

    此時,董事會決定採取務實的態度。鑑於我們 2023 年的增量投資計劃將進一步加快我們的轉型,並考慮到不確定的宏觀環境、更高的利率、未決的訴訟和監管事項,董事會決定優先加強資產負債表。這將提供更大的業務彈性,同時繼續支持未來的財務靈活性,因為我們的目標是更快地降低杠桿率以達到我們目標 2 到 3 倍走廊的中間。

  • We strongly believe that share buybacks have an important role to play within our capital allocation framework, and we will continue to keep it under review as we progress through the year. Finally, in line with our long-standing commitment to dividend growth, we are pleased to announce a dividend of 230.9p for 2022 with growth in line with our constant currency earnings.

    我們堅信,股票回購在我們的資本配置框架內發揮著重要作用,我們將在今年取得進展時繼續對其進行審查。最後,根據我們對股息增長的長期承諾,我們很高興地宣布 2022 年派發 230.9 便士的股息,增長與我們的固定貨幣收益一致。

  • Looking forward, 2023 results are expected to be driven by another year of strong New Category growth and the further reduction in losses alongside a resilient combustible performance supported by continued efficiency savings and strong cash generation. We expect to deliver organic revenue growth of 3% to 5%, excluding Russia and Belarus, adjusted mid-single figure EPS growth second half weighted, reflecting incremental New Category investment, higher net finance costs, transactional FX headwind of around 2% and the second half weighted U.S. performance.

    展望未來,預計 2023 年的業績將受到又一年強勁的新類別增長和進一步減少損失以及持續的效率節約和強勁的現金產生支持的彈性可燃性能的推動。我們預計將實現 3% 至 5% 的有機收入增長,不包括俄羅斯和白俄羅斯,調整後的中個位數每股收益增長下半年加權,反映了新類別投資的增加、更高的淨財務成本、約 2% 的交易外匯逆風以及下半年加權美國表現。

  • When we think about the corridor for adjusted mid-single figure this year, it's a little wider than usual at 3.5% to 6.5%. This is because it is impacted by both the volatile macroeconomic environment at the time and the timing of the transfer of our business in Russia and Belarus. Extrapolate current export rates, we expect currency translation to be broadly neutral on the full year adjusted diluted EPS growth. And finally, as already mentioned, we expect to continue to progress towards the middle of our 2 to 3x leverage corridor.

    當我們考慮今年調整後的中個位數增長區間時,它比往年稍寬一些,在 3.5% 到 6.5% 之間。這是因為它受到當時波動的宏觀經濟環境以及我們在俄羅斯和白俄羅斯的業務轉移時機的影響。推斷當前的出口率,我們預計貨幣換算對全年調整後攤薄每股收益增長基本保持中性。最後,如前所述,我們希望繼續朝著 2 到 3 倍槓桿走廊的中間方向發展。

  • In summary, we have a clear momentum behind our New Category transformation, which is now a significant contributor to the group financial delivery. The current challenges we face in the U.S. are mostly macroeconomic related and we expect stabilization from the second half of 2023. In 2022, our results have enabled us to return a total of GBP 6.9 billion in cash to shareholders. In 2023, we are taking a pragmatic approach and prioritize strengthening the balance sheet. Share buybacks will be kept under review as we progress throughout the year.

    總而言之,我們的新品類轉型背後有著明顯的動力,這現在是集團財務交付的重要貢獻者。我們目前在美國面臨的挑戰主要與宏觀經濟相關,我們預計從 2023 年下半年開始趨於穩定。到 2022 年,我們的業績使我們能夠向股東返還總計 69 億英鎊的現金。 2023 年,我們將採取務實的態度,優先加強資產負債表。隨著我們全年的進展,我們將不斷審查股票回購。

  • And with that, I will now hand you back to Jack.

    有了這個,我現在將把你交還給傑克。

  • Jack Marie Henry David Bowles - CEO, Member of Management Board & Director

    Jack Marie Henry David Bowles - CEO, Member of Management Board & Director

  • Thank you, Tadeu. At the start of today's presentation, I highlighted the significant progress BAT has made since launch of our purpose led A Better Tomorrow strategy in 2020, building a New Category consumer base, growing powerful brands and developing capabilities for the future.

    謝謝你,塔杜。在今天的演講開始時,我強調了 BAT 自 2020 年推出以我們的目標為主導的“更美好的明天”戰略以來取得的重大進展,建立了新類別的消費者基礎,發展了強大的品牌並為未來發展了能力。

  • The speed of our transformation over the last 3 years means that now is the time to take BAT strategy to the next level. In 2022, we have shown that our multi-category model is working, meaning that we can both continue to invest and deliver improved profitability. In the final section, I will share how we are getting fit for growth with our new operating model.

    我們過去 3 年的轉型速度意味著現在是將 BAT 戰略提升到一個新水平的時候了。到 2022 年,我們已經證明我們的多類別模型正在發揮作用,這意味著我們既可以繼續投資,又可以提高盈利能力。在最後一部分,我將分享我們如何通過新的運營模式適應增長。

  • This means that alongside investing more, will also be investing smarter, enabling us to accelerate New Category profitability and reach our target 1 year early, while also preparing the business for sustainable, long-term profitable growth.

    這意味著除了進行更多投資外,還將進行更明智的投資,使我們能夠加快新品類的盈利能力並提前 1 年實現我們的目標,同時也為業務的可持續、長期盈利增長做好準備。

  • First, let me remind you of the opportunity. Total nicotine industry revenue is growing with a 3.5% expected CAGR to 2025. This means an additional GBP 11 billion revenue at industry level. 75% of this industry growth is expected to come from New Categories with a forecast of 15% growth CAGR. This is supported by the growing number of New Category consumers increasing from around 80 million today to an estimated 130 million by 2025.

    首先,讓我提醒您機會。到 2025 年,尼古丁行業的總收入預計將以 3.5% 的複合年增長率增長。這意味著行業層面的收入將增加 110 億英鎊。該行業增長的 75% 預計將來自新類別,預計複合年增長率為 15%。這得益於不斷增長的新類別消費者數量,從今天的約 8000 萬增加到 2025 年的估計 1.3 億。

  • The percentage of smokers interacting with the New Categories is growing fast, especially in established New Category markets. Variations between markets are largely driven by regulatory environment alongside different consumer tastes and pricing relativities. Sustainable New Category growth is also supported by consumer demographics. In established New Category markets, solus usage is now above combustible levels among adults under 45.

    與新類別互動的吸煙者比例正在快速增長,尤其是在成熟的新類別市場中。市場之間的差異在很大程度上是由監管環境以及不同的消費者口味和定價相關性驅動的。消費者人口統計數據也支持可持續的新品類增長。在已建立的新品類市場中,45 歲以下的成年人現在的溶液使用量已超過可燃水平。

  • This shows the clear potential to make a significant positive impact on public health and deliver sustainable, high-quality growth. Alongside accelerated decline in cigarette solus usage in established market, poly-usage within New Categories is growing fast. This means that we are consumer-centric multi-category strategy we are well positioned to capture further growth.

    這顯示了對公共衛生產生重大積極影響並實現可持續、高質量增長的明顯潛力。除了成熟市場的捲煙使用量加速下降外,新類別中的混合使用量也在快速增長。這意味著我們採用以消費者為中心的多品類戰略,我們有能力抓住進一步的增長。

  • So the opportunity is big. Given the significant variation in New Category developments across market, we must prioritize our investments smartly and focus our activities and resource allocation to maximize the return. We must be fit for growth. Following our comprehensive strategic review, we have taken the decision to further simplify the group to enable greater collaboration and faster decision-making.

    所以機會很大。鑑於整個市場新類別開發的顯著差異,我們必須明智地確定投資的優先次序,並集中我們的活動和資源分配以實現回報最大化。我們必須適合成長。在我們全面的戰略審查之後,我們決定進一步簡化團隊,以實現更好的協作和更快的決策制定。

  • Our new organizational design will be based on fewer larger business units, reducing the number of regions from 4 to 3 and business units from 16 to 12. This led to the senior management changes and realignment announced last week. And we are further optimizing our footprint. Phased over the next 2 years, we plan to exit around 30 smaller markets, where we don't see a near-term opportunity to execute our New Category strategy. When completed, this means we will be selling at least 20 billion fewer cigarettes annually with a limited impact on our P&L.

    我們新的組織設計將基於更少的大型業務部門,將地區數量從 4 個減少到 3 個,將業務部門從 16 個減少到 12 個。這導致了上周宣布的高級管理層變動和重組。我們正在進一步優化我們的足跡。在未來 2 年內,我們計劃退出大約 30 個較小的市場,我們認為在這些市場短期內沒有機會執行我們的新品類戰略。完成後,這意味著我們每年的香煙銷量將至少減少 200 億支,對我們的損益影響有限。

  • This will enable us to increase profit and unlock cash through resource allocation in two markets, which generates higher returns. Should the conditions and the opportunity for New Category products materially change then we will reconsider our presence in these markets. In addition, we have identified 6 different market archetypes to guide strategic sources and resource allocation.

    這將使我們能夠通過兩個市場的資源配置來增加利潤並釋放現金,從而產生更高的回報。如果新類別產品的條件和機會發生重大變化,那麼我們將重新考慮我們在這些市場的存在。此外,我們還確定了 6 種不同的市場原型來指導戰略來源和資源配置。

  • We understand that markets vary significantly by category maturity, driven both by consumer taste and preference and more importantly, by different regulatory environment. We continue to work hard to engage with regulators across the world to help inform them of the science that supports the potential benefits of smokers switching to reduced-risk products.

    我們了解到,市場因品類成熟度的不同而存在顯著差異,這既受消費者品味和偏好的驅動,更重要的是,受不同監管環境的驅動。我們繼續努力與世界各地的監管機構合作,幫助他們了解支持吸煙者轉向低風險產品的潛在好處的科學。

  • New Category already represent a significant percentage of the revenue and growth in a number of archetypes, and we expect these archetypes to be dynamic over time. Overall, we are getting fit for high-quality sustainable growth. Together, these projects and initiatives will deliver a reduction of over 3,000 roles in the next couple of years with the majority of this effort happening in 2023.

    新類別已經在許多原型的收入和增長中佔很大比例,我們預計這些原型會隨著時間的推移而變化。總體而言,我們正在適應高質量的可持續增長。這些項目和舉措將在未來幾年內共同減少 3,000 多個職位,其中大部分工作將在 2023 年進行。

  • Moving forward we will leverage the foundation created by Quantum. We'll keep delivering efficiencies through our established continuous improvement mindset, with an ambition to generate at least GBP 1 billion additional savings over the next 3 years. These savings will help the business continue to offset inflationary pressure fund New Category investment and improve New Category profitability.

    展望未來,我們將利用 Quantum 創建的基礎。我們將通過既定的持續改進理念繼續提高效率,並力爭在未來 3 年內額外節省至少 10 億英鎊。這些節省的資金將幫助企業繼續抵消通脹壓力,為新品類投資提供資金,並提高新品類的盈利能力。

  • We are committed to build A Better Tomorrow. As our transformation journey gathers pace, we are further sharpening our operating model, enhancing our agility and continuing to build new capabilities. We are transforming BAT into a high-growth multi-category consumer-led CPG with a reduced impact on public health and ESG at its core. I am confident this will create value for all our stakeholders.

    我們致力於建設更美好的明天。隨著我們轉型之旅的步伐加快,我們正在進一步完善我們的運營模式,增強我們的敏捷性並繼續建立新的能力。我們正在將 BAT 轉變為高增長的多類別消費者主導的 CPG,其核心是減少對公共衛生和 ESG 的影響。我相信這將為我們所有的利益相關者創造價值。

  • Thank you for listening. I will now open up to questions.

    謝謝你的聆聽。我現在將開放的問題。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions) We will now take our first question from Nik Oliver from UBS.

    (操作員說明)我們現在將接受來自瑞銀的 Nik Oliver 的第一個問題。

  • Nik Oliver - MD, Head of European Consumer Staples Team & Analyst

    Nik Oliver - MD, Head of European Consumer Staples Team & Analyst

  • Just 2 from my side. First one on the U.S. On the minus 15.5% combustible performance, is it possible to disentangle how much of that was industry the inventory moves and then some of the share losses that you mentioned? And then I guess, as we look forward, is the better way to think about the U.S. in terms of total nicotine share as opposed to just focus on combustibles? That's question one. And then question two just on the...

    我身邊只有2個。第一個是關於美國的 -15.5% 的可燃物性能,是否有可能分清其中有多少是庫存移動的行業,然後是你提到的一些股票損失?然後我想,正如我們期待的那樣,從尼古丁總份額的角度考慮美國是否是更好的方式,而不是僅僅關注可燃物?這是第一個問題。然後問題二就在...

  • Jack Marie Henry David Bowles - CEO, Member of Management Board & Director

    Jack Marie Henry David Bowles - CEO, Member of Management Board & Director

  • We start with this one. Yes. Yes. So I mean, first of all, we are having a very strong portfolio in the U.S. And as you know, we've grown in the last 3 years value share, volume share and profit and operating margin. So our position in the U.S. is extremely strong. Now related to the 15% versus the 10%. Of course, you saw that we have lost a little bit of share. But the premium is very resilient, only losing 50 bps and the law is not growing more than 90 bps. At the same time, the price elasticity is 0.4%. So I think that the market is very resilient. When you see the average of the last 3 years, you see very clearly that the average reduction in terms of volume has been around 5%. So you saw that we lost a little bit of market share, okay? That's fine.

    我們從這個開始。是的。是的。所以我的意思是,首先,我們在美國擁有非常強大的投資組合。正如你所知,我們在過去 3 年的價值份額、銷量份額、利潤和營業利潤率都有所增長。所以我們在美國的地位非常強大。現在與 15% 和 10% 相關。當然,你看到我們失去了一點份額。但溢價非常有彈性,僅損失 50 個基點,而法律增長不超過 90 個基點。同時,價格彈性為0.4%。所以我認為市場非常有彈性。當您查看過去 3 年的平均值時,您會非常清楚地看到,數量平均減少了 5% 左右。所以你看到我們失去了一點市場份額,好嗎?沒關係。

  • And then we said last time that we had around GBP 200 million in terms of stock that we would have to unwind and now we are doing that at pace, and we are at halfway through the journey related to that. So I think that we're going to do a further enhancement of our performance in 2023.

    然後我們上次說我們必須解除大約 2 億英鎊的庫存,現在我們正在按步調進行,我們正處於與此相關的旅程的一半。所以我認為我們將在 2023 年進一步提高我們的表現。

  • The second part of your question is related to looking at total nicotine. And you're absolutely right. I mean the reason why our performance in the U.S. is strong, it's because we have a very resilient combustible business. The macros are now improving. So you will see improvements related to the macros in the U.S. that will benefit to the size of the market. And the second thing is our performance in terms of New Categories is just stellar. I mean remember 3 years ago, everybody said that we will never take a position related to e-cigarettes. Now we're not only the leader, but we are the leader in the U.S. with price index to competition at 140. So we are doing extremely well, and we're continuing to grow in terms of New Categories. So I think that looking now holistically at the total market is something that makes total sense moving forward.

    您問題的第二部分與查看尼古丁總量有關。你是絕對正確的。我的意思是我們在美國的表現之所以強勁,是因為我們擁有非常有彈性的可燃物業務。宏現在正在改進。因此,您將看到與美國宏觀相關的改進,這將有利於市場規模。第二件事是我們在新類別方面的表現非常出色。我的意思是記得 3 年前,每個人都說我們永遠不會採取與電子煙相關的立場。現在我們不僅是領導者,而且我們是美國的領導者,競爭價格指數為 140。所以我們做得非常好,並且我們在新類別方面繼續增長。所以我認為現在從整體上看整個市場是完全有道理的。

  • Tadeu Luiz Marroco - Finance & Transformation Director, Member of Management Board and Executive Director

    Tadeu Luiz Marroco - Finance & Transformation Director, Member of Management Board and Executive Director

  • That's right. And just to be clear about the 15.5% and the 10%, most of the gap is related to the unwind of the stock addition be a surprise because we have flagged that a year ago.

    這是正確的。只是要清楚 15.5% 和 10%,大部分差距與股票增加的平倉有關,這是一個驚喜,因為我們在一年前就已經註意到了這一點。

  • Jack Marie Henry David Bowles - CEO, Member of Management Board & Director

    Jack Marie Henry David Bowles - CEO, Member of Management Board & Director

  • So I'm confident in the progressive recovery of the U.S. market and our strong position in terms of our portfolio. I mean, we have at the upper end of the market, you have American Spirit that is super premium, if you want to call it this way. There is growing share and value share. And you have the most successful launch in the VFM with Lucky Strike, which is now reaching 3 points of share. That's the most successful launch in the last at least 15 years in the U.S. So we have a very well-balanced portfolio.

    因此,我對美國市場的逐步復甦以及我們在投資組合方面的強勢地位充滿信心。我的意思是,我們在市場的高端,如果你想這樣稱呼它,你有超級優質的美國精神。份額和價值份額不斷增長。您在 VFM 中推出了最成功的 Lucky Strike,現在已達到 3 個份額。這是過去至少 15 年來在美國最成功的發布。因此我們擁有非常平衡的產品組合。

  • And now we have to do price laddering through the different brands in order to make sure that we help the consumers to navigate. Also always remember, the U.S. is a very large market, and I spoke about price elasticity at 0.4%. You have to remember that some prices in some states are at $11 and some are at $6. So there's a lot of gamuts of different markets. And you see that the price elasticity, in average, is 0.4%. So I think that we have a very strong business over there that has grown share and value share in the last 3 years. And the operating margins are going in the right direction. We are delivering 3.5% profit growth in 2022, and we are confident in the U.S. business.

    現在我們必須通過不同的品牌進行價格階梯,以確保我們幫助消費者導航。還要永遠記住,美國是一個非常大的市場,我談到價格彈性為 0.4%。你必須記住,有些州的價格是 11 美元,有些是 6 美元。所以有很多不同市場的範圍。你會看到價格彈性平均為 0.4%。所以我認為我們在那裡擁有非常強大的業務,在過去 3 年中份額和價值份額都有所增長。營業利潤率正朝著正確的方向發展。我們將在 2022 年實現 3.5% 的利潤增長,我們對美國業務充滿信心。

  • Nik Oliver - MD, Head of European Consumer Staples Team & Analyst

    Nik Oliver - MD, Head of European Consumer Staples Team & Analyst

  • Great. And then just the one final one for me, and then I'll hand over. Just on the -- obviously, the no new buyback this year was kind of quite topical with investors this morning. But I guess in the press release, you mentioned that would be reviewed during the year. Maybe today, just a few words on the thought process of one -- not announcing one now and then what would need to change for that to happen later in the year?

    偉大的。然後是我的最後一個,然後我會交出。就在 - 顯然,今年早上沒有新的回購對投資者來說有點熱門。但我想在新聞稿中,你提到將在年內進行審查。也許今天,就一個人的思考過程說幾句話——而不是不時地宣布一個人需要改變什麼才能在今年晚些時候發生?

  • Tadeu Luiz Marroco - Finance & Transformation Director, Member of Management Board and Executive Director

    Tadeu Luiz Marroco - Finance & Transformation Director, Member of Management Board and Executive Director

  • Yes. Nik, we have been focused on cash generation at least for the last 3, 4 years in a very intense way. That's reflecting our conversion being consistently at 100%, and we managed to deleverage the company to the corridor of 3 to 2. But we are still in an uncomfortable position to be at the high end of this range. And the world has changed. We have a very high levels of cost of capital today after 7 interest hikes in the U.S. alone throughout 2022. Our cost of capital is much higher than before, and we are still seeing a lot of volatilities in that environment. So one thing that we would like to observe more clearly is where this will stabilize. For sure, when the Board takes a decision in terms of capital allocation, it's always looking ahead.

    是的。 Nik,至少在過去的 3、4 年裡,我們一直以非常強烈的方式專注於現金產生。這反映出我們的轉換率一直保持在 100%,並且我們設法將公司的槓桿率降低到 3 比 2。但我們仍然處於這個範圍的高端,這讓人感到不舒服。世界已經改變了。在整個 2022 年僅美國就加息 7 次之後,我們今天的資本成本水平非常高。我們的資本成本比以前高得多,而且在那種環境下我們仍然看到很多波動。所以我們想更清楚地觀察到的一件事是這將穩定下來。可以肯定的是,當董事會就資本分配做出決定時,它總是向前看。

  • And from the regulatory side, the litigation side, you note that we have provided for investigations that we have around DOJ, OFAC and we still have to pay for those. We don't know exactly when these get concluded. We expect to be in 2023, but it's not completely up to us. And also, we have the WCAA there is a mediation processing in place. I cannot comment further on that. But in the medium term, we have to prefer the company for that. So the reason why we want to accelerate to land in the mid of the range is to create this space so we can have a more resilient balance sheet and a much more financial agility moving forward, and this is a benefit for us in the medium and long term of the company.

    從監管方面,訴訟方面,你注意到我們已經為我們圍繞 DOJ、OFAC 進行的調查提供了服務,我們仍然需要為此付費。我們不知道這些何時結束。我們預計會在 2023 年實現,但這並不完全取決於我們。而且,我們有 WCAA,有適當的調解處理。我不能對此作進一步評論。但從中期來看,我們必須更喜歡這家公司。因此,我們之所以要加速降落在區間的中間,是為了創造這個空間,這樣我們就可以擁有更具彈性的資產負債表和更靈活的財務,這對我們在中期和中期都有好處公司的長期。

  • Jack Marie Henry David Bowles - CEO, Member of Management Board & Director

    Jack Marie Henry David Bowles - CEO, Member of Management Board & Director

  • I mean to speak clearly, since 3 years, we have done a lot of transformation. We have done a lot of acceleration in terms of our business. Now we have the possibility to decide. Last year, we did GBP 2 billion of share buyback. The interest rates are going up. Deleveraging is important, taking care of our balance sheet. We want to be in that corridor of 3 to 2 and to accelerate faster to the mid of that corridor. That's the pragmatic way of looking at it. And frankly, share buyback, we are convinced with share buyback. We did GBP 2 billion last year, and we will review in the course of the year. And we'll make the decisions as we see pragmatic to do so and continue on that journey. I like share buyback.

    我的意思是說清楚,3年來,我們做了很多轉型。我們在業務方面做了很多加速。現在我們有機會做出決定。去年,我們進行了 20 億英鎊的股票回購。利率在上升。去槓桿化很重要,要照顧好我們的資產負債表。我們希望進入 3 比 2 的走廊,並更快地加速到該走廊的中間。這是看待它的務實方式。坦率地說,股票回購,我們對股票回購深信不疑。去年我們做了20億英鎊,我們會在年內進行檢討。我們將按照我們認為務實的方式做出決定,並繼續這一旅程。我喜歡股票回購。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Next up, we have Richard Felton from Goldman Sachs.

    接下來,我們有來自高盛的 Richard Felton。

  • Richard Felton - Equity Analyst

    Richard Felton - Equity Analyst

  • My first question is a follow-up on U.S. combustibles and your relative performance. So the numbers you've given in your prepared remarks, 10% industry decline and the 15.5% decline in your portfolio, is on a full year basis. Now if I think about the second half specifically, it does look like that gap versus the market has got a little bit larger. So my question is, what has sort of driven that? Where are you seeing the relative weakness in your portfolio? And what actions are you taking to narrow that gap into 2023? That's the first question.

    我的第一個問題是跟進美國可燃物和你們的相對錶現。所以你在準備好的評論中給出的數字,10% 的行業下降和 15.5% 的投資組合下降,是全年的。現在,如果我具體考慮下半年,與市場的差距看起來確實有點大了。所以我的問題是,是什麼驅動了它?您在哪裡看到投資組合的相對弱點?您將採取什麼行動來縮小到 2023 年的差距?這是第一個問題。

  • Tadeu Luiz Marroco - Finance & Transformation Director, Member of Management Board and Executive Director

    Tadeu Luiz Marroco - Finance & Transformation Director, Member of Management Board and Executive Director

  • Just to make the more clearly because it's difficult to analyze by half because there were a lot of movements in the U.S. We mentioned the unwind of stocks. But remember that in the first half of 2022, we also introduced our TaO system. We rolled out the TaO system. So we had to build up stocks just before that. So your first -- the unwind of stocks in reality materialized more towards the second half of the year. So that's why you see a different picture in the second half as compared with the first. And this also explained the reason why we expect to be more second weighted this year because we are lapping our first half of last year that was impacted by the stock build from the introduction of the TaO system in the U.S.

    只是為了更清楚地說明,因為很難分析一半,因為美國有很多變動。我們提到了股票的平倉。但請記住,在 2022 年上半年,我們還推出了我們的 TaO 系統。我們推出了 TaO 系統。所以我們必須在那之前建立庫存。所以你的第一個 - 實際上股票的平倉在今年下半年更多地實現了。所以這就是為什麼你會在下半場看到與上半場不同的畫面。這也解釋了為什麼我們預計今年將獲得更多的第二權重,因為我們正在結束去年上半年,這是受到美國引入 TaO 系統造成的庫存增加的影響。

  • So I just want to make this point clearly. In terms of the -- as the macro became much more visible throughout the second half of the year, we start taking commercial initiatives related to that. As we presented in the presentation, we have much more -- been much more active in terms of revenue growth management, granular in terms of pricing decisions at state level, channel levels. We have been laddering now in different price points. So we are ending the year 2022 in a much more competitive basis. And we saw that in terms of our share performance in Q4 compared with Q3, where we see some stabilization of that. And we continue this trend to grow in '23 as we approach '23.

    所以我只想把這一點說清楚。就-隨著宏觀在今年下半年變得更加明顯,我們開始採取與此相關的商業舉措。正如我們在演示文稿中介紹的那樣,我們在收入增長管理方面更加積極,在國家層面、渠道層面的定價決策方面更為精細。我們現在一直在以不同的價位攀登。因此,我們將以更具競爭力的方式結束 2022 年。我們在第四季度的股票表現與第三季度相比看到了這一點,我們看到了一些穩定。隨著我們接近 23 年,我們將繼續這種趨勢以在 23 年增長。

  • Jack Marie Henry David Bowles - CEO, Member of Management Board & Director

    Jack Marie Henry David Bowles - CEO, Member of Management Board & Director

  • In the big players, not in the low, I mean, you saw that we defended share much better than competition, and we have a pricing environment. Where you always have to remember that the pricing that has been taken by the industry even in Q3, Q4 was far less than CPGs in general, yes. So we had a much more linear pricing activity in the second half of the year than CPGs. That give us some runway in terms of pricing in 2023.

    在大型企業中,而不是在低端企業中,我的意思是,你看到我們在捍衛市場份額方面比競爭要好得多,而且我們有定價環境。你總是要記住,即使在第三季度,第四季度行業所採取的定價也遠低於一般的 CPG,是的。因此,與 CPG 相比,我們在下半年的定價活動更加線性。這為我們在 2023 年的定價方面提供了一些跑道。

  • So I think that the overall market has suffered in terms of size. The consumers, we always speak about the price of oil, but it's not only the disposable income. It's also the Americans go less to the shops. And if they go less to the shops with the product that they buy every day or every second day, then you have a bit of reduction in terms of the total market. But I think that with the performance that we have in premium where we're growing and the down trading that has been very reasonable in that environment, and the price elasticity at 0.4% and the portfolio that we have.

    所以我認為整個市場在規模上受到了影響。消費者,我們總是談論石油價格,但這不僅僅是可支配收入。這也是美國人去商店少的原因。而且,如果他們每天或每隔一天購買的產品去商店的次數減少,那麼整個市場就會有所減少。但我認為,憑藉我們在增長的溢價方面的表現,以及在那種環境下非常合理的下跌交易,以及 0.4% 的價格彈性和我們擁有的投資組合。

  • I'm confident on the U.S. for 2023, but it's going to be more geared towards the second half or the stock issues and for the recovery of the macros moving forward. And always remember, I think that the point that was made before is very important, total nicotine. And in total nicotine, including e-cigarettes, you see that the performance is extremely good in that environment. Cost of access to e-cigarettes is lower for consumers in the U.S. than in cigarettes. So I'm confident.

    我對美國 2023 年充滿信心,但它將更傾向於下半年或股票問題以及未來宏觀經濟的複蘇。永遠記住,我認為之前提出的觀點非常重要,完全尼古丁。而在尼古丁總量中,包括電子煙,你看在那種環境下表現是非常好的。美國消費者獲得電子煙的成本低於香煙。所以我有信心。

  • Richard Felton - Equity Analyst

    Richard Felton - Equity Analyst

  • That's very helpful. My follow-up is going to be on e-cigarettes in the U.S. So obviously, very impressive performance on views on a top line basis and on improving profitability. But my question is on the volume performance of U.S. vapour. Looking at the numbers on the second half, it looks like volume growth did decelerate a little bit. So my question is, how to think about the growth drivers for Vuse in the U.S. moving forward? I mean, should we expect it to be continued to be pricing-led growth? Or are there more investments that you need to make to reaccelerate the volume performance of Vuse and, I suppose, the overall category? That's the followup.

    這很有幫助。我的後續行動將是關於美國的電子煙。很明顯,在頂線基礎上的觀點和提高盈利能力方面的表現非常令人印象深刻。但我的問題是關於美國蒸汽的體積性能。從下半年的數據來看,銷量增長似乎確實有所放緩。所以我的問題是,如何看待 Vuse 在美國向前發展的增長動力?我的意思是,我們是否應該期望它繼續以定價為主導的增長?或者您是否需要進行更多投資以重新加速 Vuse 的體積性能,我想,整個類別?這就是後續。

  • Jack Marie Henry David Bowles - CEO, Member of Management Board & Director

    Jack Marie Henry David Bowles - CEO, Member of Management Board & Director

  • Yes. I think what's important to consider is first, there has been a New Category that has emerged in the U.S., which is the disposable with synthetic nicotine, okay? And you saw that it grew very fast and especially in nonorganized trade. So that has taken some consumers in terms of the cigarette business that have moved to these kind of categories. But in reality, it's an additional pool of consumers that have been created, and the FDA now wants to regulate that environment and that will allow us to have even more oxygen, so just in the transition. But what's very interesting to see is that the vapour -- traditional vapour with pods has continued to grow. It did not replace one another. The traditional is continuing to grow. There will be more regulation in synthetic nicotine products.

    是的。我認為首先要考慮的重要一點是,美國出現了一個新類別,即含有合成尼古丁的一次性產品,好嗎?你看到它增長得非常快,尤其是在無組織的貿易中。因此,就已經轉移到這些類別的捲煙業務而言,這已經吸引了一些消費者。但實際上,它已經創造了一個額外的消費者群體,而 FDA 現在想要監管這種環境,這將使我們有更多的氧氣,所以只是在過渡中。但非常有趣的是,蒸汽——帶豆莢的傳統蒸汽繼續增長。它沒有相互替代。傳統正在繼續增長。合成尼古丁產品將受到更多監管。

  • So then that will create an additional expansion bubble, if you want, for us for the next few years to come. So I think that not only we have the best brand in the market. We have, as I said before, a price index of 140 to the nearest competitor. And we're continuing to grow. The market is continuing to grow at a smaller space. And we have that additional bubble of oxygen that is coming our way with regulation related to the FDA. So I think that we own for something very good in terms of e-cigarettes in the U.S. And at the same time, you saw the profitability. I mean, the numbers speak for themselves, if I may say so.

    因此,如果你願意的話,這將在未來幾年為我們創造一個額外的擴張泡沫。所以我認為不僅我們擁有市場上最好的品牌。正如我之前所說,與最接近的競爭對手相比,我們的價格指數為 140。我們正在繼續成長。市場在更小的空間內繼續增長。我們還有額外的氧氣氣泡,這是與 FDA 相關的監管。所以我認為我們在美國的電子煙方面擁有非常好的東西。與此同時,你看到了盈利能力。我的意思是,如果我可以這麼說的話,數字不言自明。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Next up, we have Rey Wium from SBG Securities.

    接下來,我們有來自 SBG Securities 的 Rey Wium。

  • Rey L. Wium - Head of Consumer Research

    Rey L. Wium - Head of Consumer Research

  • Also just two questions from my side. I just want to quickly focus on the combustible market share. You mentioned it was down 20 basis points. So it's a bit of a reversal of what we've seen in prior years. And I know you mentioned it is the U.S., but in your report, you also state that the market share was lower in AMSSA in Europe. So I was just curious about where you've seen market share declines and what you can do to reverse that in the combustible side?

    我這邊也只有兩個問題。我只想快速關注可燃物的市場份額。你提到它下降了 20 個基點。所以這與我們前幾年看到的情況有點相反。我知道你提到它是美國,但在你的報告中,你還說 AMSSA 在歐洲的市場份額較低。所以我很好奇你在哪裡看到市場份額下降以及你可以做些什麼來扭轉可燃方面的市場份額?

  • Jack Marie Henry David Bowles - CEO, Member of Management Board & Director

    Jack Marie Henry David Bowles - CEO, Member of Management Board & Director

  • Yes. I think that the first thing to consider is that 2022 has been a year where there were more tensions in terms of pricing across the globe. Let's put it this way. Then also, you had the macroeconomics that we are hurting the consumers in the second half of the year. So I think that what we start to see in the last quarter is that resilience is transforming again into growth in terms of volume. And there is more benign pricing environment, i.e., the pricing is coming through. As I said earlier, always remember a lot of FMCG, CPG company, took a lot of pricing in Q4, then it's different for us. We took reasonable pricing because consumers buy every day, and we can continue to take that pricing. So we see the volume and the pricing in a good environment for 2023.

    是的。我認為首先要考慮的是,2022 年是全球定價方面更加緊張的一年。讓我們這樣說吧。然後,你的宏觀經濟也表明我們在下半年傷害了消費者。因此,我認為我們在上個季度開始看到的是,彈性正在再次轉變為數量增長。並且有更良性的定價環境,即定價正在通過。正如我之前所說,永遠記住很多 FMCG、CPG 公司在第四季度採取了很多定價,這對我們來說是不同的。我們採取了合理的定價,因為消費者每天都在購買,我們可以繼續採用這種定價。因此,我們在 2023 年的良好環境中看到了銷量和定價。

  • Tadeu Luiz Marroco - Finance & Transformation Director, Member of Management Board and Executive Director

    Tadeu Luiz Marroco - Finance & Transformation Director, Member of Management Board and Executive Director

  • Yes. I just want to compliment about -- I think that we have -- what we saw in '22 is a very resilient combustible business to start with. We referred to 1.2% FMC THP worldwide decline. If you see combustible loan, it's around 2%. And if you see emerging market was pretty much flattish. We saw volume growth in place like Brazil, which we are very strong as well as Bangladesh, Malaysia, Vietnam. So a lot of markets and we decided even in places like Italy, Spain and Europe. So we had a number of markets where with all the macroeconomic headwinds, inflation, we still saw volume growth. In terms of our performance in market share, we are not really concerned about that.

    是的。我只想稱讚 - 我認為我們已經 - 我們在 22 年看到的是一個非常有彈性的可燃業務。我們提到 1.2% 的 FMC THP 全球下降。如果你看到可燃貸款,它大約是 2%。如果你看到新興市場非常平淡。我們看到了像巴西這樣我們非常強大的地方以及孟加拉國、馬來西亞和越南的銷量增長。所以很多市場,我們甚至決定在意大利、西班牙和歐洲等地。因此,我們有許多市場,在所有宏觀經濟逆風和通貨膨脹的情況下,我們仍然看到了銷量增長。就我們在市場份額方面的表現而言,我們並不真正關心這一點。

  • This is very specific for some specific markets for Brazil, for example, we had some price schemes there and we prioritize some value. And we had in Turkey because of this macroeconomic situation, we saw a lot of increase illicit trade, and we are more exposed because we are strong on the low end of the market. So we lost some share there and has a big weight. So -- but it's not something -- it's very specific for some countries, but I think the key message is that we are seeing a very resilient business across the world.

    這對於巴西的某些特定市場來說非常具體,例如,我們在那裡有一些價格方案,我們優先考慮一些價值。由於這種宏觀經濟形勢,我們在土耳其看到非法貿易大量增加,而且由於我們在低端市場的實力很強,所以我們的風險更大。所以我們在那裡失去了一些份額並且有很大的影響力。所以——但這不是什麼——它對某些國家來說非常具體,但我認為關鍵信息是我們在世界各地看到了一個非常有彈性的企業。

  • Rey L. Wium - Head of Consumer Research

    Rey L. Wium - Head of Consumer Research

  • Excellent. And then just a question for you about the interest guidance of GBP 1.9 billion. It looks a bit high to me. So I just want to know -- I mean, it sort of works out based on my calculations like an average coupon rate of about 5%. Now is it an issue of that you probably expect your free cash flow to be a bit lower this year? Because, I mean, I just want to tie the two ends together here.

    出色的。然後就 19 億英鎊的利率指導向您提問。對我來說它看起來有點高。所以我只想知道——我的意思是,根據我的計算,它有點像平均票面利率約為 5%。現在這是一個問題,您可能預計今年的自由現金流會有所降低嗎?因為,我的意思是,我只想在這裡把兩端綁在一起。

  • Tadeu Luiz Marroco - Finance & Transformation Director, Member of Management Board and Executive Director

    Tadeu Luiz Marroco - Finance & Transformation Director, Member of Management Board and Executive Director

  • Okay. No, it's not that. It's -- well, we had our starting point will be a GBP 1.6 billion in terms of interest cost in 2022. And then what we are seeing, and that's why I referred to 18% in terms of our exposure for 2023. We have some refinance to do it. So we used to refinance at 4%, 4.5%, and this is higher than that. And I don't think that is as high as we saw in October because the market has come down a bit more this year, but can be much higher than the average cost of capital. And we also have needs in terms of working capital, CP markets, bilateral, and those rates were very, very minimal back in early stage of 2022 and now went up substantially.

    好的。不,不是那樣的。嗯,就 2022 年的利息成本而言,我們的起點是 16 億英鎊。然後是我們所看到的,這就是為什麼我提到 2023 年的風險敞口為 18%。我們有一些再融資去做。所以我們以前再融資的利率是4%、4.5%,這個比那個高。而且我認為這沒有我們在 10 月份看到的那麼高,因為今年市場下跌幅度更大,但可能遠高於平均資本成本。我們在營運資金、CP 市場、雙邊方面也有需求,這些利率在 2022 年初非常、非常低,現在大幅上升。

  • So that's where you see this -- when you see the gap between where it was, where is now plus the commitments that we have in terms of other finance costs and in terms of maturities that adds up to something close to 18% of our needs, you come to this number of GBP 1.9 billion. And it's important to flag that because we will be seeing this annualized impact in 2023. So it's a one-off that we see in '23, and then we create a new base moving forward.

    所以這就是你看到的——當你看到過去與現在之間的差距加上我們在其他財務成本和到期日方面的承諾加起來接近我們需求的 18% ,你得出這個數字是 19 億英鎊。標記這一點很重要,因為我們將在 2023 年看到這種年度化影響。所以這是我們在 23 年看到的一次性,然後我們創建一個新的基礎向前發展。

  • Jack Marie Henry David Bowles - CEO, Member of Management Board & Director

    Jack Marie Henry David Bowles - CEO, Member of Management Board & Director

  • And in terms of cash conversion, I mean, you saw that we had 100% in average in the last 3 years, and we have a number of 95% and higher. So I mean we are very dedicated to that. And after that, the free cash after dividend. What you see is that last year it was GBP 2.1 billion last year, 2021. 2022 was GBP 2.7 billion, and we continue to make a lot of efforts. Also, you saw that we had the program of Quantum that was GBP 1 billion originally 3 years ago. We delivered GBP 1.9 billion and we just said that we're going to do another GBP 1 billion in the few years to come.

    在現金轉換方面,我的意思是,你看到我們在過去 3 年平均有 100%,而且我們有 95% 甚至更高的數字。所以我的意思是我們非常專注於此。之後是股息後的自由現金。大家看到的是去年是21億英鎊,2021年,2022年是27億英鎊,我們還在繼續努力。另外,你看到我們在 3 年前就有了最初 10 億英鎊的 Quantum 計劃。我們交付了 19 億英鎊,我們只是說我們將在未來幾年內再交付 10 億英鎊。

  • So I think that it's -- we're getting to a position where financials make a lot of sense, where our business is making a lot of sense where we're accelerating our transformation. And we're on the midterm to long term. So it's about now at the moment, the balance sheet, the corridor 2 to 3 and we'll review during the year. So I'm very confident in the quality of the business that we have. We take some decisions because we have the possibility to take decisions, and we have the choice, and we exercise that choice because it's for the good of the growth of the company and the sustainability moving forward.

    所以我認為這是——我們正處於一個財務很有意義的位置,我們的業務在我們加速轉型的地方很有意義。我們處於中長期。所以現在是關於資產負債表,走廊 2 到 3,我們將在年內進行審查。所以我對我們的業務質量非常有信心。我們做出一些決定是因為我們有做出決定的可能性,我們有選擇權,我們會做出選擇,因為這有利於公司的發展和可持續發展。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Next up, we have Jared Dinges from JPMorgan.

    接下來,我們有來自摩根大通的 Jared Dinges。

  • Jared T. Dinges - Analyst

    Jared T. Dinges - Analyst

  • Maybe first to come back to the U.S. What impact do you expect from the California flavor ban across your portfolio? And maybe if you could talk a bit about -- maybe some very early signs if you have data from there so far?

    也許是第一個回到美國的人。您認為加利福尼亞風味禁令對您的投資組合有何影響?也許如果你能談談 - 如果你到目前為止有數據,也許是一些非常早期的跡象?

  • Jack Marie Henry David Bowles - CEO, Member of Management Board & Director

    Jack Marie Henry David Bowles - CEO, Member of Management Board & Director

  • Yes, good question. I mean California represents around, what, 5% of the total market in the U.S. and it's a market that we are looking at, of course, very carefully. It's very difficult to read the early signs in the California market because you had a lot of stock movements in December. As you know, the ban came in 21st of December. There was still a lot of stock that was available in the shops in January. So you'll have to wait April, May in order to read old days. If you look at the size of the market and the way the market is faring at the moment, it's robust, but you have to offset all these movements in terms of stocks. Our brands are doing well. We've launched new SKUs and e-cigarettes is doing very well also.

    是的,好問題。我的意思是加利福尼亞大約占美國總市場的 5%,當然,我們正在非常仔細地關注這個市場。很難看清加州市場的早期跡象,因為 12 月份的股票波動很大。如您所知,該禁令於 12 月 21 日發布。 1 月份商店仍有大量存貨。所以你必須等到四月、五月才能閱讀舊時光。如果你看看市場的規模和市場目前的表現,它很強勁,但你必須用股票來抵消所有這些變動。我們的品牌做得很好。我們推出了新的 SKU,電子煙也做得很好。

  • So we'll have to navigate all this. And it would be too early or too confident from my side to say that the job is done. It's going to happen in the next few months. And I'm optimistic in terms of the solidity of the business. Remember, in all the different geographies where you had that kind of things that happened, in Canada, in Europe, in Turkey or in other places, the retention rate was around 95% and more.

    所以我們必須應對這一切。就我而言,現在說工作已經完成還為時過早或過於自信。這將在接下來的幾個月內發生。而且我對業務的穩固性持樂觀態度。請記住,在加拿大、歐洲、土耳其或其他地方發生過此類事情的所有不同地區,保留率都在 95% 左右甚至更高。

  • And then on top of that, you had related to New Categories, another increase in terms of in terms of retention rates. So the jury is out, but the start is very good, but very mixed in terms of numbers. You would not be able to find your ducklings in there because it's all stock movements, trade, availability in trade. There is the key accounts, the organized trade that has been more speedy in terms of stopping these products. General trade is very important in California and that is less measured accurately. So give it a bit of time. But I think that is going to be a good outcome for us.

    然後最重要的是,你與新類別相關,這是保留率方面的另一個增長。所以陪審團已經出來了,但開始非常好,但在數字方面非常複雜。你將無法在那裡找到你的小鴨子,因為它全是庫存變動、貿易和貿易可用性。有關鍵客戶,有組織的貿易在停止這些產品方面更快。一般貿易在加利福尼亞州非常重要,但測量不准確。所以給它一點時間。但我認為這對我們來說將是一個好的結果。

  • Jared T. Dinges - Analyst

    Jared T. Dinges - Analyst

  • Got it. And then maybe switching gears over to THP. It was another good year, but I noticed in the second half of the year, especially the price/mix was weaker, especially in Asia. Can you talk maybe a bit about what's driving that, especially given that you had the launch of Hyper X2 and good device sales? I would have thought you would have had a mixed boost from that.

    知道了。然後也許將齒輪切換到 THP。這又是一個好年景,但我注意到下半年,尤其是價格/組合疲軟,尤其是在亞洲。你能談談是什麼推動了這一點,特別是考慮到你推出了 Hyper X2 和良好的設備銷售嗎?我原以為你會從中得到混合的提升。

  • Jack Marie Henry David Bowles - CEO, Member of Management Board & Director

    Jack Marie Henry David Bowles - CEO, Member of Management Board & Director

  • Yes. As you see, I mean, we have now close to GBP 3 billion in terms of New Category revenues to a point that represents 50% of the total company. And you saw that in the different categories, vapour grew very fast, and the percentage of growth of THP has slowed down a little bit, and there is more price competition within the different segments. So you have different competitors that have come in at different price points, different product offerings. So I think that there's a bit more of internal competition in the segment. I must say that we are very happy with our performance, and we continue to plow forward. We're only in 50% of the markets that are carrying THP, as we speak today.

    是的。如您所見,我的意思是,就新類別收入而言,我們現在已經接近 30 億英鎊,占公司總收入的 50%。而且大家看到在不同的品類中,vapor增長非常快,THP的增長百分比有所放緩,不同品類之間的價格競爭更加激烈。所以你有不同的競爭對手,他們以不同的價位進入,提供不同的產品。因此,我認為該領域存在更多的內部競爭。我必須說,我們對自己的表現非常滿意,我們會繼續努力向前。正如我們今天所說,我們只在 50% 的市場中使用 THP。

  • So we still have a lot of geo expansion to do, and we're improving our pricing as we go along our price index as we go along. So I think that we have a very good start with glo X2 in Japan. It has reached a record share in December, and we grew during the year. So there is more intense competition, but we have a lot of space to grow in. And when you look at, for instance, Europe, that is the nearly 50% of the total market, I mean, we are doing extremely well and growing fast. Overall New Categories, as we said in the presentation, in 11 markets where we have already 30% of our revenue that is there, yes, for the total company. So we are strong, and we'll have an innovation pipeline that is strong, not only in 2023, but also in 2024. So we have more launches that are coming, and we are doing the rollout of X2 that is very well accepted by the consumers. It's smaller, it's lighter, delivers more flavor. And we've done a lot of improvement also in terms of the consumer models. So I'm confident.

    因此,我們還有很多地理擴張工作要做,並且我們正在沿著我們的價格指數進行改進我們的定價。所以我認為我們在日本的 glo X2 有了一個很好的開端。它在 12 月達到了創紀錄的份額,我們在這一年中實現了增長。因此競爭更加激烈,但我們有很大的增長空間。例如,當你看看歐洲時,它佔整個市場的近 50%,我的意思是,我們做得非常好並且還在增長快速地。正如我們在演示文稿中所說,總體新類別在 11 個市場中,我們已經擁有 30% 的收入,是的,對於整個公司而言。所以我們很強大,我們將擁有強大的創新管道,不僅在 2023 年,而且在 2024 年。因此我們即將推出更多產品,我們正在推出 X2,它被廣泛接受消費者。它更小,更輕,提供更多風味。我們在消費者模型方面也做了很多改進。所以我有信心。

  • Tadeu Luiz Marroco - Finance & Transformation Director, Member of Management Board and Executive Director

    Tadeu Luiz Marroco - Finance & Transformation Director, Member of Management Board and Executive Director

  • Just to complement that in Japan, and it's not different in Europe, every single product we sell in THP has higher margins than our combustible products. So even the newly launched the Lucky Strike that we did to complement our range in the market has higher margins than the combustibles one. So for us, is a financial opportunity to strength our business in all those locations. We are very pleased with the -- to be honest, with the progress that we have made in all categories throughout 2022, margin-wise. We have read in THP on the consumables side margin that is higher than combustible. The same is happening more than oral.

    只是為了補充日本的情況,在歐洲也沒有什麼不同,我們在 THP 銷售的每一種產品的利潤都高於我們的可燃產品。因此,即使是我們為補充市場範圍而新推出的 Lucky Strike,其利潤率也高於易燃品。因此,對我們來說,這是一個加強我們在所有這些地區的業務的財務機會。我們非常高興 - 老實說,我們在整個 2022 年的所有類別中都取得了利潤方面的進展。我們已經在消耗品方面的 THP 中讀到高於可燃品的利潤率。同樣的事情發生在口頭上。

  • And in vapor, we have reached worldwide, a 50% gross margin compared with the cigarettes, which is around 68%. And in the U.S. alone is even higher than that. So it's a big improvement. That's what is really driving the reduction in loss as well. And we are really heading towards a very sustainable business where we're being different between you selling cigarettes or selling one of these products.

    在蒸汽方面,我們在全球範圍內達到了 50% 的毛利率,而香煙的毛利率約為 68%。僅在美國,這一數字就更高了。所以這是一個很大的改進。這也是真正推動損失減少的原因。我們真的在朝著一個非常可持續的業務發展,在這個業務中,我們在銷售香煙或銷售其中一種產品之間有所不同。

  • Jack Marie Henry David Bowles - CEO, Member of Management Board & Director

    Jack Marie Henry David Bowles - CEO, Member of Management Board & Director

  • I mean we took the view 3 years ago to do multi-category. And that's starting to pay off because you have more interaction between the different categories. Tadeu was speaking about the fact that there is now a relations between THP users and Modern Oral, for instance, or in other markets, THP with vapour. Just remember that the number of consumers in Vapour is close to the double of the ones in THP. And this is interesting to see that increased interaction between the categories. So being truly multi-category as well now and having done that for 3 years gives us a head start in terms of being able to serve better the consumers, and we have now a profitability that is coming through in vapour. So all these put together gives us a very strong position, where, again, I insist, we said we will invest in '23 and in '24, and we prioritize that because as we saw, we can grow volume and revenue faster and reduce our losses by GBP 600 million.

    我的意思是我們在 3 年前採取了多類別的觀點。這開始得到回報,因為不同類別之間的互動更多。 Tadeu 談到了一個事實,即現在 THP 用戶與 Modern Oral 之間存在關係,例如,或在其他市場中,THP 與蒸氣。請記住,Vapor 中的消費者數量接近 THP 中消費者數量的兩倍。看到類別之間的互動增加很有趣。因此,現在也是真正的多類別,並且已經這樣做了 3 年,這使我們在能夠更好地為消費者服務方面處於領先地位,而且我們現在已經實現了盈利。所以所有這些加在一起給了我們一個非常強大的地位,我再次強調,我們說我們將在 23 世紀和 24 年投資,我們優先考慮它,因為正如我們所看到的,我們可以更快地增加銷量和收入並減少我們損失了 6 億英鎊。

  • Guys, it's not a small thing. When we said a few years ago that we will be profitable in 2025. People said, haha. Now we're saying we're going to be profitable in 2024, and we're going to continue to invest more because we have the brands, we have the capabilities. We have reorganized the company 3 times in a row. Not redoing everything every time, no, it's blocks of transformation that we did Quantum 1, Quantum 2 and Quantum 3 to be able to do what we are doing as a transformation today in order to accelerate the delivery.

    伙計們,這不是一件小事。幾年前我們說2025年盈利的時候,人家說,哈哈。現在我們說我們將在 2024 年實現盈利,我們將繼續加大投資,因為我們擁有品牌,我們擁有能力。我們連續對公司進行了3次重組。不是每次都重做所有事情,不,這是我們進行 Quantum 1、Quantum 2 和 Quantum 3 的轉型塊,以便能夠完成我們今天正在做的轉型,以加速交付。

  • So we're on big guys. I mean, we really believe that the strategy not only is paying off, but is putting really the company forward in terms of delivery of our transformation and accelerating the delivery. Of course, at the same time, you have the net debt to EBITDA, you have to take care of that. Your balance sheet and everything. So we continue to invest hard and continue to plow through. I'm on the mid- to long term. Tadeu and myself, we see these numbers all the time. And of course, we want to do the best for the business, and you will see us for some time.

    所以我們是大人物。我的意思是,我們真的相信該戰略不僅取得了回報,而且在我們轉型的交付和加速交付方面真正推動了公司的發展。當然,與此同時,您有 EBITDA 的淨債務,您必須處理好這個問題。你的資產負債表和一切。所以我們繼續努力投入,繼續耕耘。我是中長期的。 Tadeu 和我自己,我們一直看到這些數字。當然,我們希望為業務做到最好,你會看到我們一段時間。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Next up we have Gaurav Jain from Barclays.

    接下來我們有來自巴克萊銀行的 Gaurav Jain。

  • Gaurav Jain - Research Analyst

    Gaurav Jain - Research Analyst

  • I have three questions. So first, Tadeu for you on the restructuring charge in the comment you said. So last year, BAT had restructuring of GBP 770 million. And over the last 12 years, it is GBP 400 million on average. And now you are saying, going forward, it will be 0. So if I had assumed a GBP 400 million restructuring charge for next year your adjusted EPS growth will be high single digit. Is that the right way to think about that?

    我有三個問題。因此,首先,Tadeu 在評論中為您介紹了重組費用。所以去年,BAT重組了7.7億英鎊。在過去的 12 年中,平均為 4 億英鎊。現在你說,展望未來,它將是 0。因此,如果我假設明年有 4 億英鎊的重組費用,你調整後的每股收益增長將是高個位數。這是思考這個問題的正確方法嗎?

  • Jack Marie Henry David Bowles - CEO, Member of Management Board & Director

    Jack Marie Henry David Bowles - CEO, Member of Management Board & Director

  • Well, good one.

    好吧,一個好人。

  • Tadeu Luiz Marroco - Finance & Transformation Director, Member of Management Board and Executive Director

    Tadeu Luiz Marroco - Finance & Transformation Director, Member of Management Board and Executive Director

  • First of all, just to some color on the GBP 700 million that you are referring to. We -- as we highlighted in the announcement, we -- within that, we have a factory closure in very costly locations, that's there. We have pulled out of -- we are closing operations in some markets, as you saw, and a place like Egypt, Yemen and they come also with some tax liabilities that need to be settled this is in there as well. And we have, like Jack said, with all the archetypes of markets and the closure of factories, we have almost 2,000 employees leaving in the next coming years and most of it in '23. So it's also provide there.

    首先,只是對你所指的 7 億英鎊的一些顏色。我們 - 正如我們在公告中強調的那樣,我們 - 在那裡,我們在非常昂貴的地方關閉了一家工廠,就在那裡。我們已經退出——我們正在關閉一些市場的業務,正如你所看到的,像埃及、也門這樣的地方也有一些需要解決的稅收負債,這也在那裡。正如傑克所說,隨著市場的所有原型和工廠的關閉,我們將有近 2,000 名員工在未來幾年離職,其中大部分將在 23 世紀離職。所以它也在那裡提供。

  • So what we are referring you absolutely right in the sense that we believe that with the conclusion of Quantum now, we are not incurring in the restructuring, adjusted items anymore. This will be a positive for the cash, to be honest, because when you see adjusted numbers, we are taking this out. But on the cash, there still cash outflow, some of that. There are some other elements that are noncash items. But this will be helping us more, I would say, in '24 because a lot of this provision will result in some cash outflow happening in '23. But from '24, is where we expect the major benefits coming from the cash side.

    因此,我們所指的是絕對正確的,因為我們相信隨著 Quantum 現在的結束,我們不再進行重組、調整項目。老實說,這對現金有利,因為當你看到調整後的數字時,我們就把它去掉了。但在現金方面,仍有一些現金流出。還有一些其他元素是非現金項目。但我會說,這將在 24 年幫助我們更多,因為很多這項準備金將導致 23 年發生一些現金流出。但從 24 年開始,我們預計現金方面將帶來主要好處。

  • Gaurav Jain - Research Analyst

    Gaurav Jain - Research Analyst

  • Sure. My second question is on the NGP breakeven guidance for FY'24. And a lot of people are concerned about the U.S. e-cigarette business because see, 30% of your NGP is U.S. e-cigarettes, where FDA has given two of Vuse Alto menthol variants and MDO. And they also commented that Vuse was second ranked in the FY'22 Youth Prevalent Survey. So most likely Vuse Alto menthol will also get an MDO and maybe a tobacco product also gets an MDO. So with all this regulatory uncertainty, how certain are you that you will hit NGP breakeven, in FY'24?

    當然。我的第二個問題是關於 FY'24 的 NGP 盈虧平衡指南。很多人都擔心美國電子煙業務,因為你看,30% 的 NGP 是美國電子煙,FDA 已經提供了兩種 Vuse Alto 薄荷醇變體和 MDO。他們還評論說,Vuse 在 FY'22 青年流行調查中排名第二。因此,Vuse Alto 薄荷醇很可能也會獲得 MDO,也許煙草產品也會獲得 MDO。因此,在所有這些監管不確定性的情況下,您對在 24 財年實現 NGP 盈虧平衡有多大把握?

  • Jack Marie Henry David Bowles - CEO, Member of Management Board & Director

    Jack Marie Henry David Bowles - CEO, Member of Management Board & Director

  • Yes. I mean, to be blunt, we would not say that we accelerate the profitability of NGP to 2024. We would not have looked at all these things, but it's a very valid question. I think what you have to see is the consumers are increasingly coming to our portfolio and to our brands. And we have now 22.5 million consumers that are there, which only represents a small portion of the 80 million that are existing at the moment. So we have a lot of space to grow and to grow against competitors.

    是的。我的意思是,坦率地說,我們不會說我們將 NGP 的盈利能力加速到 2024 年。我們不會考慮所有這些事情,但這是一個非常有效的問題。我認為你必須看到的是,消費者越來越多地來到我們的產品組合和我們的品牌。我們現在有 2250 萬消費者,這只是目前 8000 萬消費者中的一小部分。所以我們有很大的成長空間,可以對抗競爭對手。

  • The second thing is the FDA is, of course, doing all the regulatory work, but it has slowed down dramatically, because they have a lot of things to do, which I understand. So I think that the speed at which regulation and new regulation will come in and regula-mentation related to all this is going to be slow. And I think that we have adapted very well in the past to all the regulators. And we know that we have very strong brands. So we have space to grow, and we know that we have very strong brands.

    第二件事是,當然,FDA 正在做所有的監管工作,但它已經大大放慢了速度,因為他們有很多事情要做,我理解這一點。所以我認為監管和新監管的出台速度以及與這一切相關的監管將會很慢。我認為我們過去已經很好地適應了所有監管機構。我們知道我們擁有非常強大的品牌。所以我們有成長的空間,而且我們知道我們擁有非常強大的品牌。

  • So I'm confident in the way forward. These things are multiyear things with a lot of litigation, regulation, discussions and all this will take time. We have this kind of debate is now 5 years, and it's only starting to move slowly and there is not even a definitive view in terms of what is going to happen. So we'll take the time and we'll make sure that we do the right thing for the business. And we reiterate -- I reiterate the fact that we'll be profitable in New Categories by 2024. I could even be profitable sooner, but I want to invest the money in order to make sure that we grow the base of the business. And that's what we're doing in the right way.

    所以我對前進的道路充滿信心。這些事情是多年的事情,有很多訴訟、監管、討論,所有這些都需要時間。我們已經進行了 5 年的此類辯論,而且進展緩慢,甚至對於將要發生的事情都沒有明確的看法。所以我們會花時間,我們會確保我們為企業做正確的事。我們重申——我重申到 2024 年我們將在新類別中盈利這一事實。我什至可以更快盈利,但我想投資這筆錢以確保我們擴大業務基礎。這就是我們正在以正確的方式做的事情。

  • Already last year, we reduced the losses by GBP 100 million. This year, it's another GBP 600 million. So it's all about continuing to grow. We have 40 -- sorry, we have 80 million consumers that are out there already. I said that that's going to grow to 130 million consumers with a lot of available income. We have 22.5 at the moment, I have seen a lot of space to grow. So yes, it's always a complex market. If it was not a complex market, we would not be so much benefiting because we have why and the organization to be not only much better in terms of combustible, and we've done a great job in combustible in the last 3 years.

    早在去年,我們就減少了 1 億英鎊的損失。今年,又是 6 億英鎊。所以這一切都是為了繼續成長。我們有 40 個——抱歉,我們已經有 8000 萬消費者。我說過,這將增長到 1.3 億消費者,他們擁有大量可用收入。我們現在有 22.5,我看到了很大的成長空間。所以是的,它始終是一個複雜的市場。如果這不是一個複雜的市場,我們就不會從中受益,因為我們有理由和組織不僅在可燃物方面做得更好,而且我們在過去 3 年中在可燃物方面做得很好。

  • We have appointed now a Board member in terms of combustible in order to make sure that we extract the value and we are going even to take out around 30 markets, yes, which we are the first ones to do seriously and reducing the number of cigarette users. And at the same time, we're going to have another GBP 1 billion of reduction of cost in terms of our structure. We are reorganizing our structure in a way that is geared towards category management, and we are making sure that our financials are sound in order to make sure that we continue to invest. We're making money and we're investing that money. So that's what we do.

    我們現在已經在可燃物方面任命了一名董事會成員,以確保我們提取價值,我們甚至要拿下大約 30 個市場,是的,我們是第一個認真做並減少香煙數量的人用戶。與此同時,我們將在結構方面再削減 10 億英鎊的成本。我們正在以一種面向類別管理的方式重組我們的結構,我們正在確保我們的財務狀況良好,以確保我們繼續投資。我們正在賺錢,我們正在投資這些錢。這就是我們所做的。

  • Tadeu Luiz Marroco - Finance & Transformation Director, Member of Management Board and Executive Director

    Tadeu Luiz Marroco - Finance & Transformation Director, Member of Management Board and Executive Director

  • Yes. The only add to what I would say to your question is that the FDA has embraced the risk continue. So you would believe that all the decisions they will take is actually aligned with that and not incentivize consumers should go back to cigarettes.

    是的。我要對你的問題說的唯一補充是 FDA 已經接受了繼續存在的風險。所以你會相信他們將做出的所有決定實際上都與此一致,而不是激勵消費者應該重新吸食香煙。

  • Jack Marie Henry David Bowles - CEO, Member of Management Board & Director

    Jack Marie Henry David Bowles - CEO, Member of Management Board & Director

  • I think it's a very important point of Tadeu. The fact that they give PMTAs to e-cigarette means that it's a less risky product recognized, yes? So it starts there. So that gives a lot of traction also in the rest of the world.

    我認為這是 Tadeu 非常重要的一點。他們為電子煙提供 PMTA 的事實意味著它是公認的風險較低的產品,是嗎?所以它從那裡開始。因此,這在世界其他地區也產生了很大的吸引力。

  • Gaurav Jain - Research Analyst

    Gaurav Jain - Research Analyst

  • Okay. Sure. And my last question is on -- you will have a new competitor next year entering the market in the U.S. with heated tobacco product. And you have filed for the glo Hyper PMTA in December '21, if I remember correctly. So when can we expect that PMTA to come? And would you launch soon after in the U.S. market?

    好的。當然。我的最後一個問題是——明年你將有一個新的競爭對手帶著加熱煙草產品進入美國市場。如果我沒記錯的話,您已經在 21 年 12 月申請了 glo Hyper PMTA。那麼我們什麼時候可以期待 PMTA 到來?你會很快在美國市場推出嗎?

  • Jack Marie Henry David Bowles - CEO, Member of Management Board & Director

    Jack Marie Henry David Bowles - CEO, Member of Management Board & Director

  • Yes. First of all, you have to take it piece by piece, first. Combustible business is extremely important in the U.S., yes. Even if you don't like it pays your bills every day. That gives you the resources to be able to invest, that's number one. The second thing is there is already 20% of the market that is in New Categories, mostly e-cigarettes, that's already there. And that's I think very, very interesting in terms of margins per 1,000, okay? The second -- the third thing is there is a lot of things that have been said in terms of THP in the U.S. It has been on the market for 2 years. It has not worked and the high TaO levels and everything.

    是的。首先,你必須一點一點地接受它,首先。可燃業務在美國非常重要,是的。即使你不喜歡它每天支付你的賬單。這為您提供了能夠進行投資的資源,這是第一位的。第二件事是,已經有 20% 的市場屬於新類別,主要是電子煙。就每千人的利潤率而言,我認為這非常非常有趣,好嗎?第二——第三件事是在美國 THP 方面有很多說法。它已經上市 2 年了。它沒有用,高 TaO 水平和一切。

  • But at the end of the day, what is important is what position you have in New Categories in the U.S. And we have a presence in the 3 categories. We have PMTAs that are in progress, and this is going to be more in 2 years from now or at least. So you have to take your time and look at what is there, what is growing, and then that's for the mid- to long term. And I'm confident that when you see what has happened in Europe between THP and e-cigarettes, there has always been a very strong space for e-cigarette in high TaO markets. In Japan, it is different because there is very low TaO and nic consumers that are already there. So the satisfaction gaps are lower, and you have always in the process of PMTAs. You have to have the science that goes with it. So you don't have the latest product that comes to the U.S.

    但歸根結底,重要的是你在美國新類別中的地位。我們在這 3 個類別中都有存在。我們有正在進行的 PMTA,從現在起 2 年內或至少會更多。所以你必須花時間看看那裡有什麼,正在增長什麼,然後是中長期。而且我相信,當你看到歐洲在 THP 和電子煙之間發生的事情時,電子煙在高 TaO 市場中一直存在非常強大的空間。在日本,情況有所不同,因為已經存在非常低的 TaO 和 nic 消費者。因此,滿意度差距較小,並且您始終處於 PMTA 過程中。你必須擁有與之相伴的科學。所以你沒有到達美國的最新產品

  • You have the products that were there 3, 4 years ago where you have the science that you have to take the time for making the science, and then you can come with the -- to the market with a product that has been there a long time ago in other markets. So that's an iteration process, where New Categories, I'm very pleased to say, is growing in the U.S. and where there will be more opportunities in the 3 to 5 years to come. Okay? And as you see in our results in the U.S., now the New Categories, the e-cigarette is having a major part in terms of our profitability and our financial numbers, which we are very pleased with, okay?

    你有 3、4 年前的產品,你有科學,你必須花時間來創造科學,然後你可以帶著 - 將已經存在很長時間的產品推向市場前一段時間在其他市場。所以這是一個迭代過程,我很高興地說,新類別在美國正在增長,並且在未來 3 到 5 年內會有更多機會。好的?正如您在我們在美國的結果中看到的那樣,現在是新類別,電子煙在我們的盈利能力和財務數據方面發揮著重要作用,我們對此非常滿意,好嗎?

  • Operator

    Operator

  • It appears that there are no further questions at this time. I would like to turn the conference back to Mr. Jack Bowles for closing remarks.

    看來此時沒有進一步的問題了。我想將會議轉回 Jack Bowles 先生作閉幕詞。

  • Jack Marie Henry David Bowles - CEO, Member of Management Board & Director

    Jack Marie Henry David Bowles - CEO, Member of Management Board & Director

  • So thank you very much for joining us today. I'm very proud of our performance in 2022. Our results show that we are transforming the business at speed and delivering strong results in a challenging macro environment. We expect 2023 to be a stronger year with organic revenue of between 3% and 5%, led by New Categories and stronger combustibles.

    非常感謝您今天加入我們。我為我們在 2022 年的表現感到非常自豪。我們的結果表明,我們正在快速轉變業務,並在充滿挑戰的宏觀環境中取得強勁成果。我們預計 2023 年將是更強勁的一年,有機收入將在 3% 至 5% 之間,由新類別和更強勁的可燃物引領。

  • While higher interest costs and our exit from Russia and Belarus, means that we are guiding mid-single figure EPS for this year. We are also making active choices as our New Category growth model continues to accelerate and deliver. This means that we will invest more and achieve New Category profitability in 2024, 1 year early. We have made choices, and this is the right thing for us to do. I'm excited that building on the strong progress that we have made today will continue to transform, driven by our brands, our capabilities and determination to drive long-term value creation for all our stakeholders.

    雖然更高的利息成本和我們退出俄羅斯和白俄羅斯,意味著我們今年的每股收益將達到中個位數。隨著我們的新類別增長模式繼續加速和交付,我們也在做出積極的選擇。這意味著我們將在 2024 年提前 1 年加大投資並實現新品類盈利。我們做出了選擇,這是我們應該做的正確的事情。我很高興在我們今天取得的巨大進步的基礎上,在我們的品牌、我們的能力和決心的推動下,我們將繼續轉型,為所有利益相關者創造長期價值。

  • So thank you very much for listening, and have a very good day.

    非常感謝您的收聽,祝您今天愉快。