英美煙草 (BTI) 2024 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good morning everyone.

大家早安。

I'm delighted to welcome you to our 2024 preliminary results presentation.

我很高興歡迎您參加我們的 2024 年初步業績報告。

With me this morning is Soraya Benchikh, CFO; and Victoria Buxton, group Head of Investors Relations.

今天早上和我在一起的是財務長 Soraya Benchikh；以及集團投資者關係主管維多利亞·巴克斯頓（Victoria Buxton）。

I will begin with our transformation highlights and the progress we have made during our investment year.

我將首先介紹我們的轉型亮點以及我們在投資年度所取得的進展。

Soraya will then take you through our financial results in more detail before I return to talk more about our performance outlook ahead of Q&A.

然後，索拉雅 (Soraya) 將向您更詳細地介紹我們的財務業績，然後我會在問答環節之前再進一步談論我們的業績前景。

With that, I would like to draw your attention to the disclaimers on slide 2 entry.

因此，我想提請您注意第二張投影片上的免責聲明。

Let's begin by looking at the positive transformation momentum we are driving, starting with some highlights. 2024 was a key moment in our transformation journey as we sharpened our execution, enabling us to navigate near term market challenges and deliver an improved performance in the second half.

首先讓我們來看看我們正在推動的正向轉型勢頭，先講一些亮點。 2024年是我們轉型之旅的關鍵時刻，我們加強了執行力，使我們能夠應對近期的市場挑戰並在下半年取得更好的業績。

We have delivered group results in line with expectations which Soraya will talk about in more detail.

我們的集團業績符合預期，Soraya 將對此進行更詳細的介紹。

Smokeless accounts for 17.5% of group revenue, up 1-percentage-points versus last year.

無菸產品佔集團收入的17.5%，比去年上升了1個百分點。

We added 3.6 million in smokeless consumers, reaching 29.1 million, mainly driven by our continued success in modern oral.

我們的無菸消費者增加了 360 萬，達到 2,910 萬，這主要得益於我們在現代口腔領域的持續成功。

Our focus on quality growth, balancing top and bottom line delivery has driven a further improvement in your category contribution up to GBP151 million and a 7% point increase in our category contribution margin on an organic constant rates basis.

我們注重品質成長、平衡營收和利潤，推動您的品類貢獻進一步提升至 1.51 億英鎊，並以有機固定利率為基礎將品類貢獻利潤率提高 7%。

We are committed to rewarding shareholders with strong cash returns, and I'm pleased with our progress in improving financial flexibility.

我們致力於以豐厚的現金回報回報股東，我對我們在提高財務靈活性方面取得的進展感到滿意。

Enabling the initiation of sustainable share buyback, continued progress on the leverage to within our target range at 2.4 times alongside our progressive dividend with 2% growth announced today.

啟動可持續的股票回購，繼續將槓桿率提高到 2.4 倍的目標範圍內，同時我們今天宣布的漸進式股息成長率為 2%。

Our foundations are solid, and I am confident that the choices we have made and the actions we have taken through our investment year are the right way forward for BAT.

我們的基礎是牢固的，我相信我們在投資年度中所做的選擇和採取的行動是英美煙草公司前進的正確方向。

I have been clear that we needed to invest to strengthen our US business, accelerate innovation momentum, and enhance capabilities that support our strategic delivery.

我已經明確表示，我們需要投資來加強我們的美國業務，加快創新勢頭，並增強支持我們戰略交付的能力。

While there is more to do, we are making clear progress.

儘管還有很多工作要做，但我們正在取得明顯進展。

Our previously announced commercial plans in the US are completed, and I'm encouraged that our performance accelerated in the second half.

我們之前宣布的在美國商業計劃已經完成，我很高興看到我們的業績在下半年加速成長。

Through our improved innovation ecosystem, our new category growth accelerating in the second half, driven by glo Hyper Pro and our refreshed Velo mix in the US.

透過我們改進的創新生態系統，在 glo Hyper Pro 和我們在美國更新的 Velo 產品組合的推動下，我們新類別的成長在下半年加速。

Furthermore, we are excited about the Q4 launchings of our latest innovations, including Velo-plus.

此外，我們對第四季度推出的最新創新產品（包括 Velo-plus）感到非常興奮。

As previously highlighted, we do not expect the journey ahead to be linear.

正如之前所強調的那樣，我們並不認為未來的旅程是一帆風順的。

We will share more detail on the key drivers and assumptions behind our 2025 guidance later in the presentation.

我們將在稍後的演示中分享有關 2025 年指引背後的關鍵驅動因素和假設的更多細節。

We remain committed to returning to 3% to 5% revenue and 4% to 6% APFO growth adjusted for Canada at constant rates in 2026.

我們仍致力於在 2026 年將營收成長恢復到 3% 至 5%，將 APFO 成長率恢復到 4% 至 6%（以加拿大固定利率調整）。

And with that, I will hand over to Soraya, to take you through our results in more detail.

接下來，我將把主題交給 Soraya，她將向大家更詳細地介紹我們的成果。

Thank you, Tadeu and good morning everyone.

謝謝你，塔德烏，大家早安。

Before diving into the results and to set the context, I would like to remind you of my key focus areas.

在深入探討結果和背景之前，我想提醒您我的重點領域。

The first is to fuel our transformation by maximizing sustainable value from combustibles.

首先是透過最大限度地發揮可燃物的可持續價值來推動我們的轉型。

The second is to drive quality growth in new categories by investing capital in a disciplined manner, targeting the largest profit pools, and maintaining a laser focus on returns.

第二是透過有紀律地投資資本、瞄準最大的利潤池並密切關注回報來推動新產品類別的高品質成長。

The third is to strengthen our financial resilience and even though we have reached our target debt corridor, including Canada in 2024, by 2026, we aim to be within this corridor excluding Canada whilst remaining committed to our balanced capital allocation.

第三是增強我們的財務韌性，儘管我們已經達到了包括加拿大在內的目標債務走廊，但到 2026 年，我們的目標是進入除加拿大以外的這一走廊，同時繼續致力於平衡的資本配置。

Now with this in mind, I'd like to share our progress in 2024 as we move to the results.

考慮到這一點，我想分享我們在 2024 年取得的進展和成果。

I am pleased to share that we delivered organic constant currency results in line with guidance.

我很高興地告訴大家，我們實現了符合指引的有機固定匯率績效。

Whilst our reported results reflect a number of adjusting items, including our exit from Russia and Belarus, a provision of GBP6.2 billion for Canada's CCAA proposed plan.

雖然我們的報告結果反映了一些調整項目，包括退出俄羅斯和白俄羅斯，但為加拿大 CCAA 提出的計劃提供了 62 億英鎊的撥款。

A charge in Romania in respect of an excise assessment and the GBP1.6 billion gain due to the partial sale of our ICC investment.

羅馬尼亞的一項消費稅評估費用以及我們部分出售 ICC 投資而獲得的 16 億英鎊收益。

To understand the underlying performance, we will focus on organic adjusted constant currency results.

為了了解潛在的表現，我們將重點放在有機調整後的固定匯率結果。

More details on adjusting items are in the appendices.

有關調整項目的詳情請參閱附錄。

So in line with our guidance, group revenue grew by 1.3%, new category revenue grew by 8.9%, and adjusted operating profit rose 1.4% and diluted EPS increased by 3.6%.

因此，根據我們的預期，集團營收成長 1.3%，新類別營收成長 8.9%，調整後營業利潤成長 1.4%，稀釋每股盈餘成長 3.6%。

So looking at some of the key drivers -- combustibles price make growth with pricing up nearly 9% offset by

因此，看看一些關鍵的驅動因素——可燃物價格上漲，價格上漲近 9%，抵消了

--

--

Adjusted gross profit expanded by GBP400 million, supported by revenue growth management and new category scale benefits.

調整後毛利擴大了4億英鎊，得益於收入成長管理和新類別規模效益。

Excluding the US, we delivered 5.1% revenue growth and 7.5% operating profit growth.

除美國以外，我們的收入成長了 5.1%，營業利潤成長了 7.5%。

This highlights the strength of our multi-category portfolio and resilience of our global footprint.

這凸顯了我們多類別產品組合的實力和全球影響力的韌性。

As expected, new category revenue growth accelerated in the second half.

如預期，下半年新品類營收成長加速。

We achieved quality growth with contribution margin rising to 7%.

我們實現了有品質的成長，貢獻利潤率上升至7%。

This reflects our targeted investment in high value profit pools, focused ROI discipline and scaling benefits across markets.

這反映了我們對高價值利潤池的目標投資、專注的投資報酬率紀律和跨市場的擴大效益。

I will now provide more details, and all share data is based on full year averages unless otherwise stated, and further information is again available in the appendices.

我現在將提供更多細節，除非另有說明，所有股票數據均基於全年平均值，附錄中提供了更多資訊。

Let's start with Vapour.

讓我們從 Vapour 開始。

Vapour is the largest new category globally with consumer numbers accelerating, while category fundamentals are strong, weak enforcement against illicit single-use vapes in the US and Canada has distorted competition.

電子煙是全球最大的新興類別，消費者數量正在加速成長，雖然該類別的基本面強勁，但美國和加拿大對非法一次性電子煙的執法力度較弱，扭曲了競爭。

Vapour revenue fell by 2.5% and growth in Europe, led by Vuse go reload was offset by illicit market challenges.

蒸汽煙收入下降了 2.5%，以 Vuse go reload 為首的歐洲市場的成長被非法市場的挑戰所抵消。

Views remains the value share leader both globally and in the US where we are demonstrating strong financial resilience.

Views 在全球和美國仍然是價值份額的領先者，我們在美國展現了強大的財務韌性。

US volumes declined by 4%, but they were outperforming the 9% industry decline in track channels.

美國銷售量下降了 4%，但表現優於軌道運輸管道 9% 的產業降幅。

But without stronger enforcement, illicit Vapour products will continue to impact the legal market.

但如果沒有加強執法力度，非法電子煙產品將繼續衝擊合法市場。

In AME we retained value share leadership at 31.5%.

在 AME，我們仍保持 31.5% 的價值份額領先地位。

Gains in France, Spain, and Germany lifted value share by 100 basis points, of course excluding Canada's losses from tobacco flavor bans.

法國、西班牙和德國的收益使價值份額提升了 100 個基點，當然這不包括加拿大因菸草口味禁令而造成的損失。

The UK and France, however, will likely face short-term disruption from single-use Vapour bans in 2025, but we are well positioned for long-term growth.

然而，英國和法國可能會在 2025 年因一次性電子煙禁令而面臨短期混亂，但我們已為長期成長做好了準備。

In APMEA, revenue grew 24% driven by strong momentum in South Korea and New Zealand.

在亞太、中東和非洲地區，受韓國和紐西蘭強勁成長勢頭的推動，營收成長了 24%。

Moving on to heated products, in heated products, industry growth slowed, impacted by increased new category poly usage in Europe.

談到加熱產品，在加熱產品方面，受歐洲新類別聚合物使用量增加的影響，產業成長放緩。

Glow revenue was up nearly 6%, with a stronger H2 performance as expected.

Glow 營收成長近 6%，H2 表現如預期般強勁。

Growth was fueled by the continued rollout of glo Hyper Pro and improved consumables moving the brand towards premium positioning.

glo Hyper Pro 的持續推出和耗材的改進推動了品牌的成長，使品牌邁向高端定位。

Glo Pro helped improve volume share with a small decline of 40 basis points versus the 110 basis points in 2023.

Glo Pro 的銷售份額有所提升，與 2023 年的 110 個基點相比，小幅下降了 40 個基點。

In Japan, pro-consumables gained 110 basis points in volume share, partly offsetting the decline of legacy super slims.

在日本，專業消費品的銷售份額增加了 110 個基點，部分抵消了傳統超薄型產品的銷售量下滑。

In AME category volume shares stabilized with strong gains in Poland and the Czech Republic and continued improvement in Italy.

在AME類別中，銷售份額保持穩定，波蘭和捷克共和國的銷售份額大幅增長，義大利的銷售份額也持續改善。

Our tobacco free range Veo continues to outperform -- strongly outperform this.

我們的無菸草系列 Veo 繼續表現出色——遠遠優於其他產品。

We have driven a more balanced glow performance with improved category contribution in 2024, driven by scale, benefits, and pricing.

在規模、效益和定價的推動下，我們在 2024 年實現了更均衡的光輝表現，品類貢獻有所提升。

And last but not least, we move on to modern moral, which is the fastest growing new category.

最後但同樣重要的一點是，我們來談談現代道德，這是成長最快的新類別。

Usage and daily consumption are rising in both key and new markets, with non-traditional markets now making up 20% of industry volume, our revenue grew 53% in modern oral in 2024, with strong growth across all regions, improving category contribution.

主要市場和新興市場的使用量和日常消費量都在上升，非傳統市場目前已佔行業總量的 20%，2024 年我們的現代口腔收入增長了 53%，所有地區都實現了強勁增長，提高了品類貢獻。

Our category share increased with volume share up 130 basis points, and in AME we led the modern oral category with 65% volume share and Velo captured 70% of category revenue growth.

我們的品類份額有所增加，銷售份額上升了 130 個基點，在 AME 中，我們以 65% 的銷量份額領先現代口服品類，而 Velo 則佔據了品類收入增長的 70%。

This performance proves Velo is the leading brand and products in the category.

這一表現證明 Velo 是該類別的領導品牌和產品。

In the US, our recovery was driven by a refreshed Velo expression and the launch of Grizzly modern oral.

在美國，我們的復甦得益於 Velo 表達的更新和 Grizzly 現代口語的推出。

We gained over 2-percentage-points in volume share, reaching 6.6% and 18% in New York in December, where this mix was first introduced.

我們的交易量份額增加了超過2個百分點，達到6.6%，12月份在首次推出此組合的紐約，我們的交易量份額達到18%。

We expanded our US portfolio with Velo-plus at the end of the year, which Tadeu will discuss later.

我們在年底透過 Velo-plus 擴展了我們的美國投資組合，Tadeu 稍後將對此進行討論。

In combustibles, our volumes declined 5% organically, mainly due to the US.

在可燃物方面，我們的銷量有機下降了 5%，主要原因是美國。

Market exits and supply chain issues in Sudan also affected performance.

蘇丹的市場退出和供應鏈問題也影響了業績。

Excluding these volume declined 3.5%.

除此之外，銷量下降了 3.5%。

Our volume share grew by 20 basis points with a strong performance in Brazil, Bangladesh, Mexico, and Pakistan.

我們的銷售份額成長了 20 個基點，在巴西、孟加拉、墨西哥和巴基斯坦的表現強勁。

Value share declined 20 basis points driven by the US.

受美國影響，價值股下跌了 20 個基點。

Our US commercial investments in H1 helped recover volume and value share in the second half.

我們上半年在美國進行的商業投資幫助了下半年銷售和價值份額的恢復。

Revenue was marginally higher with growth in AME and APMEA led by Brazil and an APMEA led by Brazil, Japan, and Turkey, offsetting the US.

營收略有成長，非洲地區（AME）和亞太、中東和非洲地區（APMEA）的成長由巴西引領，亞太、中東和非洲地區（APMEA）的成長由巴西、日本和土耳其引領，抵銷了美國的成長。

Now turning to our regions, our US revenue declined by 3.4%, mainly driven by the commercial actions implemented over the last 18 months.

現在轉向我們的地區，我們的美國收入下降了 3.4%，主要是由於過去 18 個月實施的商業行動所致。

In addition to ongoing macroeconomic pressures impacting affordability and illicit Vapour products affecting both combustibles and Vapour.

除了持續的宏觀經濟壓力影響到可負擔性以及非法蒸汽產品影響可燃物和蒸汽之外。

The combustibles industry declined by around 9% on a sales to retail basis, excluding deep discount, where we are not present, the industry declined 11% while our volume was down 10.1%. 4% of the industry decline was due to new category poly usage, with illicit Vapour contributing 2.5% of this.

可燃物行業的零售銷售額下降了約 9％，不包括我們沒有涉及的深度折扣，該行業下降了 11％，而我們的銷量下降了 10.1％。 4% 的行業下滑是由於新類別聚合物的使用，其中非法蒸汽煙的貢獻率為 2.5%。

Our US financial performance improved throughout the year, driven by a strong performance in combustibles versus 2023.

與 2023 年相比，可燃物表現強勁，推動了我們在美國全年的財務表現有所改善。

Adjusting operating profit fell 3.5% due to lower combustible volume and commercial spending.

由於可燃物數量和商業支出下降，調整後營業利潤下降 3.5%。

Tadeu will provide further US updates later.

Tadeu 稍後將向美國提供進一步的最新消息。

Moving to AME.

移至 AME。

AME is a multi-category region with smokeless revenue now making up 24% in markets where we are present in new categories. 11 of those markets now generate over 50% of their revenue from smokeless products.

AME 是一個多類別區域，在我們涉足新類別的市場中，無菸收入目前佔 24%。其中 11 個市場目前 50% 以上的收入來自無菸產品。

Revenue grew nearly 5% driven by higher combustibles revenue supported by solid volume and strong pricing and double digit new category growth with modern oral up 47%.

營收成長近 5%，得益於可燃物收入的增加、穩健的銷量和強勁的定價以及兩位數的新類別成長，其中現代口服產品成長了 47%。

Vapour revenue declined, mainly due to Canada, and adjusting operating profit rose 7.5% as scale benefits in new categories and cost efficiencies offset inflation.

蒸汽煙收入下降，主要由於加拿大的原因，調整後營業利潤增長 7.5%，因為新類別的規模經濟和成本效率抵消了通貨膨脹。

In APMEA growth improved in H2 and smokeless now represents 20% of revenue in markets where we are present with new categories.

在 APMEA，下半年成長有所改善，無菸菸草產品目前在我們推出新產品類別的市場中佔收入的 20%。

Total revenue grew by 5.4%, with combustibles up 3.5%, driven by pricing gains partly offset by the declines in Australia and supply chain disruptions in Sudan.

總收入成長了 5.4%，其中可燃物收入增加了 3.5%，這得益於價格上漲，但被澳洲的下滑和蘇丹的供應鏈中斷部分抵消。

New category revenue grew nearly 9% led by Vapour and modern oral gains in emerging markets and heated products benefiting from innovation and lapping Japan's prior year commercial plans.

新類別收入成長近 9%，主要得益於蒸汽煙和現代口服產品在新興市場的成長，以及加熱產品受益於創新並超越日本前一年商業計劃。

Adjusted operating profit increased 7.5% supported by pricing and improved performance in Japan, asset sales, and efficiency gains.

調整後營業利潤成長 7.5%，得益於日本的定價和績效改善、資產出售和效率提升。

Now the group operating margin was flat as we offset inflation and ForEx pressures with higher new category profitability and cost savings.

現在，由於我們透過更高的新類別獲利能力和成本節約來抵消通貨膨脹和外匯壓力，集團營業利潤率持平。

BAT has a strong track record in delivering cost savings, having achieved close to GBP900 million in savings over the last two years, we are on track to deliver more than GBP1.2 billion by year end.

英美菸草公司在成本節約方面有著良好的記錄，過去兩年內已節省近 9 億英鎊，我們預計在年底前節省超過 12 億英鎊。

These savings helped offset inflation and ForEx impacts while funding quality growth investments.

這些儲蓄有助於抵消通貨膨脹和外匯的影響，同時為優質成長投資提供資金。

In 2024 we absorbed GBP390 million in inflationary costs and 1.1% transactional effects headwinds on adjusted operating profit.

2024 年，我們吸收了 3.9 億英鎊的通膨成本和 1.1% 的交易效應阻力，影響了調整後的營業利潤。

Inflationary pressures are expected to ease this year.

預計今年通膨壓力將會緩解。

Beyond 2025, we aim to simplify combustibles and drive scale benefits in new categories, targeting an additional GBP2 billion in savings by 2030.

2025 年以後，我們的目標是簡化可燃物並在新的類別中推動規模效益，目標是到 2030 年額外節省 20 億英鎊。

EPS grew 3.6%.

每股收益成長3.6%。

Gains from lower net finance costs and share count were partly offset by our reduced share of ITC profits and tax.

較低的淨財務成本和股份數量帶來的收益部分被我們減少的 ITC 利潤和稅收份額所抵消。

The underlying tax rate was 24.9% and we expect around 25% in 2025 based on prevailing rates.

基礎稅率為 24.9%，根據現行稅率，我們預計 2025 年稅率將達到 25% 左右。

Operating cash conversion exceeded 100% for the fifth year reflecting our strong cash discipline.

營運現金轉換率連續第五年超過 100%，反映出我們嚴格的現金紀律。

In 2025 we anticipate GBP650 million of gross CapEx and GBP1.8 billion pounds net finance costs adjusted for Canada.

我們預計 2025 年的總資本支出為 6.5 億英鎊，根據加拿大情況調整後的淨融資成本為 18 億英鎊。

Our debt profile is strong, with 87% of our net debt fixed, with average maturity of just under 10 years and close currency matching.

我們的債務狀況良好，87％的淨債務是固定的，平均期限略低於10年且貨幣匹配。

We reduced leverage to 2.4 times, which adjusted for Canada would be 2.75 times.

我們將槓桿率降低至 2.4 倍，根據加拿大的規定調整後為 2.75 倍。

We expect to be back within our target leverage range of 2 times to 2.5 times post court approval and implementation of the proposed plans by the end of 2026.

我們預計，在法院批准並實施擬議計劃後，到 2026 年底，槓桿率將回到 2 倍至 2.5 倍的目標範圍內。

We support the proposed CCAA settlement, which maximizes value for claimants while securing our continued operation in Canada.

我們支持擬議的 CCAA 解決方案，可最大限度地為索賠人帶來價值，同時確保我們在加拿大繼續開展業務。

In accounting for the proposed settlement, we will continue to fully consolidate our Canadian business in accordance with IFRS.

在核算擬議的和解方案時，我們將繼續根據國際財務報告準則全面合併我們的加拿大業務。

We have recognized a GBP6.2 billion pounds provision in our 2024 reported results, and this is treated as an adjusting item in line with our accounting policies.

我們在 2024 年報告結果中確認了 62 億英鎊的撥備，並且根據我們的會計政策，將其作為調整項目處理。

In order to ensure that the P&L reflects the economic delivery from Canada, from 2025, we will report APFO adjusted for Canada.

為了確保損益表反映加拿大的經濟交付情況，從 2025 年起，我們將報告針對加拿大調整後的 APFO。

Now due to the uncertainty of the timing of the settlement in 2025, our non-GAAP reported numbers will remove 100% of our Canadian business, excluding new categories, with 2024 comparators provided on the same basis in the appendices.

現在，由於 2025 年和解時間的不確定性，我們的非 GAAP 報告數字將刪除 100% 的加拿大業務（不包括新類別），並在附錄中以相同的基礎提供 2024 年的比較數據。

It is important to note that we will continue to fully consolidate our revenue in Canada.

值得注意的是，我們將繼續全面鞏固我們在加拿大的收入。

Subject to the settlement conclusion in 2025.

以 2025 年的結算結果為準。

From 2026 we will adjust to remove 85% of our Canadian APFO in line with the charging schedule, excluding new categories, which we will reduce to 80%, five years post settlement and 75% 10 years post settlement.

自 2026 年起，我們將根據收費計劃進行調整，取消 85% 的加拿大 APFO（不包括新類別），結算後五年內，我們將把新類別的 APFO 減少到 80%，結算後十年內，我們將把新類別的 APFO 減少到 75%。

After six years in CCAA protection, we are pleased to have reached this stage, and our accounting treatment set out today is based on the current status of the proposed plan.

經過六年的 CCAA 保護，我們很高興能夠達到這個階段，我們今天列出的會計處理是基於擬議計劃的當前狀態。

We are hopeful for a swift resolution and remain committed to our capital allocation priorities.

我們希望盡快解決問題，並繼續致力於我們的資本配置優先事項。

BAT is a highly cash generative company, and we are expecting to deliver over GBP50 billion of free cash flow between 2024 and 2030.

BAT 是一家現金創造能力極強的公司，我們預計在 2024 年至 2030 年期間將實現超過 500 億英鎊的自由現金流。

We remain committed to our capital allocation priorities of firstly, reinvesting in our transformation, whilst balancing, deleveraging, and progressive dividends and sustainable share buybacks and selective bolt on M&A to accelerate our transformation.

我們仍然致力於我們的資本配置優先事項，首先，對我們的轉型進行再投資，同時平衡、去槓桿、漸進式股息和可持續的股票回購以及選擇性的併購，以加速我們的轉型。

Looking ahead, we expect significant headwinds in Bangladesh and Australia.

展望未來，我們預期孟加拉和澳洲將面臨巨大阻力。

In January, the interim government in Bangladesh increased VAT and supplementary duty on over 100 essential products including tobacco.

今年1月，孟加拉臨時政府提高了菸草等100多種基本產品的增值稅和附加稅。

Excise has risen sharply coupled with above inflationary floor price increases across all categories, which is expected to accelerate illicit trade.

消費稅大幅上漲，加之所有類別商品的價格漲幅均超過通膨最低水平，預計將加速非法貿易。

In Australia, new tobacco regulations representing the biggest reform since plain packaging in 2012 will come into effect from April 1.

在澳大利亞，代表自2012年普通包裝以來最大改革的新菸草法規將於4月1日生效。

In addition, recent ad-hoc excise increases, most recently last September, are already accelerating industry volume decline.

此外，最近的臨時消費稅上調（最近一次是去年 9 月）已經加速了行業銷售的下滑。

Last year, illicit trade was up 6-percentage-points to 36% of industry volume, while smoking incidence has remained stable for the last five years.

去年，非法貿易上升了 6 個百分點，達到行業總量的 36%，而吸煙率在過去五年中保持穩定。

Combined with a Vapour incidence, which is currently at 9%, this means that around 65% of nicotine usage in Australia is illicit.

加上目前 9% 的蒸氣發生率，這意味著澳洲約 65% 的尼古丁使用是非法的。

Looking forward, we expect this ineffective government policy to further accelerate legal industry volume decline.

展望未來，我們預期這項無效的政府政策將進一步加速法律產業規模的下滑。

And coupled with the announced incremental impact of another excise increase in September to continue to significantly fuel illicit trade.

再加上9月宣布再次提高消費稅的增量影響，非法貿易將持續大幅成長。

Together we expect these two headwinds, both in Australia and Bangladesh to impact our 2025 group revenue growth by 1% and group up for growth by close to 2%, with the January budget in Bangladesh being the main driver of change since our December trading update.

我們預計，澳洲和孟加拉的這兩大不利因素將對我們 2025 年的集團收入成長產生 1% 的影響，並對集團成長產生近 2% 的影響，自我們 12 月的交易更新以來，孟加拉 1 月的預算是變革的主要驅動力。

As a result, and including these impacts, in 2025, we expect to deliver revenue growth of around 1%, supporting APFO growth of 1.5% to 2.5% adjusted for Canada and including a 1.5% transactional effects headwind.

因此，包括這些影響在內，到 2025 年，我們預計營收將成長約 1%，支持加拿大調整後的 APFO 成長 1.5% 至 2.5%，其中包括 1.5% 的交易效應逆風。

The key drivers are an improving US financial performance, returning to growth, despite continued macro and illicit trade headwinds.

關鍵驅動因素是美國金融績效改善，儘管宏觀經濟和非法貿易逆風持續存在，但經濟仍恢復成長。

Another solid AME performance and further strong growth from Velo globally.

AME 表現再次穩健，Velo 在全球進一步強勁成長。

Alongside the expected launch of exciting innovations for all three new categories throughout the year, we expect to grow APFO ahead of revenue supported by continued strong new category growth contribution and the laser focus on ROI and further cost savings.

隨著預計全年將推出三個新類別的令人興奮的創新產品，我們預計，在持續強勁的新類別成長貢獻以及對投資回報率和進一步成本節約的高度關注的支持下，APFO 的成長將超過收入。

We expect our group performance to be second half weighted for both revenue and profit as we deploy our new category innovations throughout the year with our first half performance reflecting progress in the US, driven by combustibles and modern oral offset by combustible headwinds as described in APMEA.

我們預計，隨著我們全年部署新的類別創新，我們集團下半年的業績將由收入和利潤加權，而上半年的業績則反映了美國的進展，由可燃物和現代口服物推動，並被 APMEA 所述的可燃物逆風所抵消。

And the continued lack of enforcement in the US and Canada together with the Mexico Vapour ban.

而美國和加拿大以及墨西哥的蒸汽煙禁令持續缺乏執行。

As highlighted at our Capital Markets Day, we will continue to track key KPIs across all pillars to measure our transformation success.

正如我們在資本市場日所強調的那樣，我們將繼續追蹤所有支柱的關鍵 KPI，以衡量我們的轉型成功。

So In summary, 2024 was an investment year, and I am pleased to see our progress reflected in our key metrics.

總而言之，2024 年是投資年，我很高興看到我們的進展反映在關鍵指標中。

We have deployed dashboards across business units to enhance decision making.

我們在各個業務部門部署了儀表板以增強決策能力。

These dashboards focus our transformation to deliver long term growth, return on investment to ensure financial discipline and cash flow and leverage to maintain financial strength.

這些儀表板專注於我們的轉型，實現長期成長、投資回報以確保財務紀律和現金流以及槓桿以保持財務實力。

I am confident these metrics will help us create a sustainable shareholder value and with that I'll hand it back to Tadeu.

我相信這些指標將幫助我們創造可持續的股東價值，我將把它交還給塔德烏。

So thank you, Soraya.

所以謝謝你，索拉雅。

I would now like to spend a few moments outlining the pathway ahead.

現在我想花一點時間來概述未來的道路。

BAT is transforming, with our multi category strategy and global footprint, we are well positioned in a growing industry.

BAT 正在轉型，憑藉我們的多品類策略和全球影響力，我們在這個不斷成長的產業中佔據有利地位。

I believe we have the right strategy, the right capabilities, and the right people to deliver profitable transformation, while delivering strong returns to shareholders and making progress towards our vision of building a smokeless world.

我相信我們擁有正確的策略、正確的能力和正確的人才，能夠實現獲利性轉型，同時為股東帶來豐厚的回報，並朝著建立無菸世界的願景邁進。

At our Capital Market Day in October, I share these 10 key reasons why I fundamentally believe in the future growth prospects of BAT.

在我們十月的資本市場日上，我分享了十個關鍵原因，說明為什麼我從根本上相信 BAT 的未來成長前景。

Many of the broader themes have been touched on by Soraya, and I would like now to share some additional color on our confidence in these six key areas highlighted in the slides.

索拉雅已經觸及了許多更廣泛的主題，現在我想進一步闡述我們對幻燈片中強調的六個關鍵領域的信心。

First, BAT is well positioned within the value of the nicotine industry growing at an accelerated pace, as consumers around the world increasingly switch to new categories.

首先，隨著全球消費者越來越多地轉向新的產品類別，BAT 在尼古丁產業價值加速成長的背景下佔據了有利地位。

Second, we have transformed our entire innovation ecosystem.

第二，我們改變了整個創新生態系統。

This has allowed us to change our product portfolio based on our consumer insights.

這使我們能夠根據消費者洞察改變我們的產品組合。

We have developed an exciting innovation pipeline across our new categories that we will deploy in a target way through 2025.

我們已經在新的產品類別中開發了令人興奮的創新管道，我們將在 2025 年有針對性地部署這些管道。

As highlighted at our CMD, glo Hilo is a breakthrough system that we believe will reshape the way GLO is positioned in the category allowing us to compete effectively in the premium segment that represents over 80% of industry value.

正如我們的 CMD 所強調的那樣，glo Hilo 是一個突破性的系統，我們相信它將重塑 GLO 在該類別中的定位，使我們能夠在佔行業價值 80% 以上的高端市場中有效競爭。

We launched our first two piece premium device in Serbia in November.

我們於11月在塞爾維亞推出了第一款兩件式高階設備。

We are collecting insights and learnings, and we are encouraged by the results in the markets to date.

我們正在收集見解和經驗，迄今為止的市場結果令我們感到鼓舞。

Hilo and our new consumables virto and rivo are resonating well with the majority of acquired consumers new to the glo brand family.

Hilo 和我們的新耗材 virto 和 rivo 得到了 glo 品牌家族大多數新消費者的一致好評。

We will share further updates as we continue to roll out this exciting new platform from mid 2025.

隨著我們從 2025 年中期開始繼續推出這個令人興奮的新平台，我們將分享進一步的更新。

In Vapour, Vuse Ultra will be our initial step in offering consumers premium Vapour products, an untapped opportunity representing just 3% of Vapour category value today.

在 Vapour 領域，Vuse Ultra 將是我們向消費者提供優質 Vapour 產品的第一步，這是尚未開發的機會，目前僅佔 Vapour 類別價值的 3%。

Vuse Ultra is a new Vapour solution delivering a responsible, high quality and satisfying experience for Vapour consumers and positioned views as a brand that consumers can trust.

Vuse Ultra 是一種新型蒸汽解決方案，為蒸汽消費者提供負責任、高品質和令人滿意的體驗，並將定位為消費者可以信賴的品牌。

Our targeted rollout plans are commencing this quarter in Canada and will continue through the year.

我們的目標推廣計劃將於本季在加拿大開始，並將持續全年。

Modern oral in the US continues to grow strongly, and I'm pleased by the progress we are making with our existing portfolio as highlighted by Soraya.

美國現代口腔產業持續強勁成長，正如 Soraya 所強調的，我對我們現有產品組合所取得的進展感到滿意。

Looking ahead, I'm excited about our portfolio expansion with Velo-plus, which we launched at the end of last year in 7 flavors and 2 nicotine strengths.

展望未來，我對我們的產品組合擴展感到非常興奮，Velo-plus 是我們去年年底推出的，有 7 種口味和 2 種尼古丁濃度。

Velo-plus is a higher moisture product and we are delivering very encouraging early results including strong uptake driven by adult consumer demand and trial with our total volume share of (inaudible) above 10% in the latest reading.

Velo-plus 是一種保濕性較高的產品，我們取得了非常令人鼓舞的早期成果，包括受成年消費者需求推動的強勁增長，以及最新讀數中我們的總銷量份額（聽不清楚）超過 10%。

We will continue the rollout through the first half with a full activation plan across retailer, media, and digital platforms.

我們將在上半年繼續推出涵蓋零售商、媒體和數位平台的全面活化計畫。

My next reason to believe is demonstrated by the growth and delivery of our business in Europe, where more than a third of total nicotine consumers are actively using new categories.

我的下一個理由是我們的業務在歐洲的成長和交付，那裡超過三分之一的尼古丁消費者正在積極使用新的類別。

Driven by our quality growth focus, our new categories have been game changers for our delivery in Europe as illustrated in these charts.

如圖表所示，在註重品質成長的推動下，我們的新類別改變了我們在歐洲的業務交付格局。

New category growth has both enabled our European business to exceed our group midterm revenue guidance and also enabled significant increases in absolute category contribution through scale and efficiencies.

新類別的成長不僅使我們的歐洲業務超出了集團中期收入預期，而且透過規模和效率顯著提高了絕對類別貢獻。

The next reason to believe is our US business which remains the cornerstone of our future.

下一個值得相信的理由是我們的美國業務仍然是我們未來的基石。

As we highlighted at our CMD, one third of the global adult nicotine value pool is located here, with the industry continue to grow at pace.

正如我們在 CMD 中所強調的那樣，全球成人尼古丁價值池的三分之一位於這裡，而且該行業繼續快速成長。

I'm encouraged that our investment approach taken over the last 18 months to strengthen our business is working.

我很高興看到，過去 18 個月我們為加強業務所採取的投資方式正在發揮作用。

In combustibles, we have expanded our contracted distribution universe to 88% coverage, resulting in a 3.2percentage-point increase in volume share in these newly contracted outlets with share gains across our brands.

在易燃品領域，我們已將合約分銷範圍擴大至 88% 的覆蓋率，這些新合約網點的銷售份額增加了 3.2 個百分點，我們各品牌的份額均有所提升。

In addition, this has led to a 1.2-percentage-point decline in the deeper discount segment in these outlets.

此外，這導致這些門市的深度折扣部分下降了1.2個百分點。

In premium we have invested in Newport Soft back in key investment states creating a lathered portfolio.

在優質產品方面，我們在關鍵投資州對 Newport Soft 進行了投資，創造了一個豐富的投資組合。

Alongside this we have driven consistent value share gains in both the premium segment with natural American spirit and in the branded value segment with Lucky Strike, which remains the fastest growing cigarette brand in the market.

此外，我們在天然美國烈酒的高端市場和好彩的品牌價值市場中都實現了持續的價值份額增長，好彩仍然是市場上增長最快的香煙品牌。

A key feature of our industry in recent years has been the strength of the deep discount segment as consumers look to make their dollars stretch further.

近年來，我們行業的一個主要特徵是深度折扣領域的強勁成長，因為消費者希望花更少的錢買到更好的東西。

In 2024, we have seen a slowdown in deep discount volume growth.

2024 年，我們看到深度折扣量成長放緩。

At the same time, the branded value segment has grown volume share with BAT increasing its segment share led by Lucky Strike.

同時，品牌價值細分市場的銷售份額有所增長，英美煙草公司（BAT）以好彩（Lucky Strike）為首的細分市場份額不斷增加。

While the lower end adult consumer clearly remains under pressure, we believe this segment dynamics alongside improved consumer confidence levels demonstrate some early indicators of progress towards recovery which would provide a tailwind in the medium term.

儘管低端成年消費者顯然仍面臨壓力，但我們相信，這一細分市場的動態以及消費者信心水平的提高，表明復甦取得了一些早期進展，這將在中期帶來推動力。

Moving forward in order to have an even sharper view of market performance, we are switching to a retail sales data share rates with enhanced coverage, improving both decision quality and decision speeds which we expect will support us in sharpening our execution.

為了更清晰地了解市場表現，我們將轉向覆蓋範圍更廣的零售銷售數據共享率，從而提高決策品質和決策速度，我們期望這將有助於我們提高執行力。

We are beginning to see returns on our completed previously planned investments in the US as we move towards value creation.

隨著我們朝著價值創造邁進，我們開始看到我們在美國已完成的先前計劃的投資的回報。

Our total volume share stabilized in 2024, excluding the deep discount segment where we are not present, we grew volume share by 40 basis points.

我們的總銷售份額在 2024 年保持穩定，除去我們沒有涉及的深度折扣部分，我們的銷售份額增長了 40 個基點。

It's important to note that 95% of the US combustible's value pool sits outside of the deeper discount segments.

值得注意的是，95% 的美國可燃物價值池位於深度折扣部分之外。

And we believe we have turned an important corner with the US returning to growth and look forward to continued improved delivered to our group performance in 2025 and 2026.

我們相信，隨著美國恢復成長，我們已經度過了一個重要的轉捩點，並期待在 2025 年和 2026 年繼續提高集團業績。

Turning to regulation, we are encouraged by the withdrawal of a possible mental ban and freeze of previous rulemaking as the new administration reconsiders proposed regulations including very low nicotine.

談到監管，新政府重新考慮包括極低尼古丁含量在內的擬議監管規定，撤銷可能的精神禁令並凍結先前的規則制定，這令我們感到鼓舞。

In new categories, our success in Europe demonstrates our ability to effectively compete on a level regulatory playing field.

在新的類別中，我們在歐洲的成功證明了我們有能力在公平的監管環境中有效競爭。

And we continue to work hard to achieve this in the US by advocating for more appropriate regulation enforcement especially in Vapour.

我們將繼續努力在美國實現這一目標，並倡導更適當的監管執行，特別是在蒸汽領域。

During 2024 we saw an increase in enforcement action from the FDA.

2024 年，我們看到 FDA 的執法行動有所加強。

However, the success of legal products is depend on the FDA doing more to tackle illicit Vapour.

然而，合法產品的成功取決於 FDA 是否能採取更多措施打擊非法電子煙。

To support this, we continue to advocate for the publication of a PMTA list which would provide clarity to all market participants.

為了支持這一點，我們繼續倡導發布 PMTA 清單，以便為所有市場參與者提供清晰的說明。

In addition, the US International Trade Commission continues to investigate our patent infringement complaint regarding these illicit products.

此外，美國國際貿易委員會正在繼續調查我們關於這些非法產品的專利侵權投訴。

At the state level, Vapour directory or enforcement legislation has now been passed in 14 states, meaning that around 30% of the tracked Vapour industry volume will be covered by state directories by the end of this year.

在州一級，目前已有 14 個州通過了蒸汽煙目錄或執法立法，這意味著到今年年底，約 30% 的蒸汽煙行業追蹤量將被州目錄所覆蓋。

Louisiana, a powerful example of what can be achieved, shows that well constructed regulation can work and it's paired with proper enforcement.

路易斯安那州就是一個有力的例子，它表明完善的法規與適當的執法相結合是行之有效的。

Since implementation, the legal Vapour market in Louisiana has grown volume by 33% with a 91% reduction of single-use illicit products in tracking channels.

自實施以來，路易斯安那州合法電子煙市場銷售成長了 33%，追蹤管道中的一次性非法產品減少了 91%。

Vuse Ultra continues to capture the majority of the void out flow back into the legal segments.

Vuse Ultra 繼續捕捉大部分流回合法部分的空隙。

In the meantime, nationally, illicit Vapour products continue to impact the legal market.

同時，在全國範圍內，非法電子煙產品繼續衝擊合法市場。

We have seen this trend accelerate legal industry declines towards the end of last year, and we expect this to continue in 2025.

我們看到這一趨勢在去年年底加速了法律產業的衰退，我們預計這種趨勢將持續到 2025 年。

While we are optimistic that government engagement actions will drive a more level playing field over time, we do not expect these actions to have any meaningful impact on our near-term performance.

雖然我們樂觀地認為，隨著時間的推移，政府參與行動將推動形成更公平的競爭環境，但我們預計這些行動不會對我們的近期業績產生任何有意義的影響。

Of course, effective regulation enforcement is not just our US focus.

當然，有效的法規執行不僅僅是我們關注的美國。

We have significant experience and capabilities in this area built over decades to connect science, corporate, and regulatory affairs towards the sustainable our future.

我們在該領域擁有數十年的豐富經驗和能力，致力於將科學、企業和監管事務連結起來，以實現永續的未來。

We have create the omni which brings together scientific evidence to shift broader stakeholder perception of tobacco harm reduction.

我們創建了綜合性平台，匯集科學證據，以改變更廣泛的利害關係人對菸草危害減少的看法。

We strongly believe that regulators should embrace tobacco harm reduction led by science and backed by robust enforcement to accelerate the reduction in smoking prevalence.

我們堅信，監理機關應採取以科學為主導、以強而有力的執法為後盾的菸草減害措施，加速降低吸菸率。

Regulators who do not engage in this area will not only slow the pace of transformation that society needs, but we also see rapid growth in illegal products.

不參與這一領域的監管者不僅會減緩社會所需轉型的步伐，而且我們還會看到非法產品的快速成長。

Leveraging science in the omni, we are pursuing a more proactive engagement approach with global regulators with encouraging progress on regulatory change in some areas.

利用全方位的科學，我們正在採取更積極主動的方式與全球監管機構合作，並在某些領域推動監管變革的進展。

And we will continue to amplify our message.

我們將繼續擴大我們的訊息。

Now, since becoming Chief Executive, I have been clear that building on our foundations of integrity, collaboration and inclusivity, we will drive the culture we need to successfully transform BAT, guided by our 2030 people strategy, we are already making great progress.

現在，自從擔任執行長以來，我已經明確表示，在誠信、協作和包容的基礎上，我們將推動成功轉型 BAT 所需的文化，在我們的 2030 人才策略指導下，我們已經取得了巨大進步。

We have a highly engaged and committed workforce, and our refreshed values are resonating strongly.

我們擁有一支高度敬業和忠誠的員工隊伍，我們更新的價值觀引起了強烈共鳴。

Our employer value proposition is attracting talent and we are also making progress in advancing our diversity and inclusion agenda.

我們的雇主價值主張正在吸引人才，我們在推動多元化和包容性議程方面也取得了進展。

All working towards one goal, driving a cultural transformation that enables an exciting winning company for a better tomorrow.

所有人都朝著一個目標努力，推動文化轉型，使一家令人興奮的成功公司擁有更美好的明天。

Finally, before we conclude, I want to share our priorities for 2025.

最後，在我們結束之前，我想分享我們 2025 年的優先事項。

As you can see, our first priority is our quality growth focus to ensure we roll out new innovations in a targeted way, balancing top and bottom line delivery.

正如您所看到的，我們的首要任務是專注於品質成長，以確保我們有針對性地推出新的創新，平衡營收和利潤。

We are committed to driving value from our combustible business.

我們致力於從可燃業務中創造價值。

This is key to fund our transformation and the US will be an important driver of this.

這是資助我們轉型的關鍵，美國將成為這項轉型的重要推手。

We will amplify our proactive approach to regulatory affairs powered by science and the omni.

我們將以科學和全方位的手段加強對監管事務的積極主動的態度。

All of these will be executed with the returns focus in terms of both cash generation and continue to build a track record of delivery.

所有這些都將以現金創造方面的回報為重點來執行，並繼續建立交付記錄。

In 2025, I am confident that we will build on our investment year foundations.

到 2025 年，我相信我們將會鞏固我們的投資年基礎。

As Soraya has highlighted, our 2025 guidance includes significant combustible headwinds in Bangladesh and Australia.

正如索拉雅 (Soraya) 所強調的，我們 2025 年的指引包括孟加拉和澳洲面臨的重大可燃阻力。

Together these represents a 1% impact on group revenue and close to two on group APFO which is already embedded in our guidance.

這些加起來對集團收入產生了 1% 的影響，對集團 APFO 產生了接近 2% 的影響，而這已經包含在我們的指導中。

Looking into 2026, I'm confident that we will build on our underlying momentum through 2025 to deliver 3% to 5% revenue growth and 4% to 6% APFO growth adjusted for Canada on a constant currency basis.

展望 2026 年，我相信我們將在 2025 年潛在發展勢頭的基礎上，實現 3% 至 5% 的收入增長和 4% 至 6% 的 APFO 增長（以加拿大固定匯率計算）。

We expect the key drivers to include further improvement in our US financial performance, supported by a less negative backdrop from industry volume, the macro environment, and more meaningful enforcement against illicit Vapour.

我們預計，關鍵驅動因素包括我們美國財務表現的進一步改善，這得益於行業規模和宏觀環境的負面因素減少以及針對非法電子煙的更有意義的執法行動。

Second, quality growth driven by our new category innovations, and third, lapping the 2025 combustible headwind in Bangladesh and investments in our innovation rollouts.

第二，由我們的新類別創新推動高品質成長；第三，應對孟加拉國 2025 年的易燃逆風並投資於我們的創新舉措。

And fourth, a step up in efficiencies with our GBP2 billion savings programs to 2030.

第四，到 2030 年，我們將透過 20 億英鎊的節約計畫來提高效率。

While there is much to do, I'm confident that we have the right strategy, capabilities, and people to deliver profitable transformation.

儘管還有很多工作要做，但我相信我們擁有正確的策略、能力和人才來實現獲利轉型。

I'm excited about the future for BAT and I believe we will deliver long term sustainable growth and value for all our stakeholders.

我對英美菸草公司的未來充滿期待，我相信我們將為所有利害關係人帶來長期可持續的成長和價值。

Thank you for listening.

感謝您的聆聽。

We'll now be joined on stage by Victoria for the question and answer session.

現在維多利亞將上台與我們一起進行問答環節。

Victoria, please.

請叫我維多利亞。

Thank you Tadeu, and Soraya, and good morning everyone.

謝謝 Tadeu 和 Soraya，大家早安。

(Event Instructions)

(活動須知)

Tadeu and Soraya, will be very happy to take your questions, and I will now hand over to the conference call operator.

塔德烏 (Tadeu) 和索拉雅 (Soraya) 非常樂意回答你們的問題，現在我將把電話會議交給電話會議接線員。

Faham Baig, UBS.

瑞銀的 Faham Baig。

Good morning, guys.

大家早安。

Thank you for taking my questions.

感謝您回答我的問題。

I may take the liberty of three please.

我可以冒昧地說三句。

Two clarification ones.

兩個澄清事項。

I want to start with the US, please.

我想先從美國開始。

I think you mentioned twice in your remarks that you expect a recovery in the US financial performance and a return to growth, despite continuing to assume a challenging environment from a macro perspective and illicit vape enforcement.

我想您在演講中兩次提到，儘管從宏觀角度來看美國的經濟環境仍然充滿挑戰，並且非法電子煙的執法力度不斷加大，但您預計美國金融業績將會出現復甦，並恢復增長。

So could you maybe clarify some of the factors that will result in the US growing and I presume that means revenue growth and profit growth.

那麼您能否澄清一些導緻美國成長的因素？

I'd like to start that.

我想開始做這件事。

Yeah, you are right, Faham.

是的，你是對的，法哈姆。

Our expectations that the US goes back to growth.

我們預計美國將恢復成長。

We have three difficult years in combustible since 2022, '23, '24.

自 2022 年、2023 年、2024 年以來，我們在可燃性方面經歷了三年的艱難時期。

The last two years basically an investment year for us to get back where we should.

過去兩年基本上是我們回歸應有狀態的投資年。

We fix and we invested in a number of areas that I described in my presentation.

我們修復並投資了我演講中描述的許多領域。

Obviously we'll be lapping a lower base in 2024.

顯然，到 2024 年，我們的基數將會更低。

This is one of the reasons why we will be having the comparator will be a lower base in '24 and also we will be building on the positions that I just showed in terms of where we stand in terms of market share.

這就是為什麼我們在 24 年將採用較低的比較基數的原因之一，而且我們將以我剛才展示的市場份額為基礎，繼續鞏固我們的領先地位。

We have a great momentum behind the Lucky Strike brand but also Newport has stabilized and now with all the laddering that we have done.

我們在 Lucky Strike 品牌背後有著巨大的發展勢頭，而且 Newport 也已經穩定下來，現在我們已經完成了所有的階梯式行銷。

And we believe that with the expansion in the trade coverage that I refer to plus capabilities on the digital sites that we have been investing we have a more an expectation that will be back to the positive territory in 2025.

我們相信，隨著我提到的貿易覆蓋範圍的擴大，以及我們一直在投資的數位網站的能力，我們更有望在 2025 年重回正值。

On the new categories obviously Velo-plus is doing extremely well and as I mentioned and this will be very supportive of the progress in the new categories in the US.

在新的類別中，顯然 Velo-plus 表現非常出色，正如我所提到的，這將非常有利於美國在新類別中的進展。

The concern we have as I described it, we are not expecting major change in terms of the dynamic of the legal Vapour market.

正如我所描述的，我們擔心的是，我們並不期望合法電子煙市場動態會發生重大變化。

This will be a headwind in 2025, that we hope that we can cover through the new categories in modern oral specifically.

這將是 2025 年的一個逆風，我們希望能夠透過現代口語中的新類別來解決這個問題。

So overall we expect US being back on growth from '25 onwards.

因此總體而言，我們預計美國將從25年開始恢復成長。

Thanks Tadeu and maybe I'd like to spend a bit of time on Velo-plus.

謝謝 Tadeu，也許我想花點時間在 Velo-plus 上。

Could you clarify that volume share for Velo was 10% in the latest reading and what would that number be for, I guess, just fellow, and maybe if you could share some insights into where are we on distribution for this product, where do we expect it to go?

您能否澄清一下，最新數據顯示 Velo 的銷售份額為 10%，這個數字代表什麼？

Where are we on capacity?

我們的產能目前處於什麼水準？

And I'd like to get your view on how you view moist and I guess wet pouches versus the existing dry offerings in the US.

我想聽聽您對濕袋裝和美國現有的乾袋裝產品的看法。

What type of consumers is it attracting and do you think the US consumer is willing to switch from dry to wet?

它吸引了哪些類型的消費者？

Okay.

好的。

So out of the above 10%, slightly above 10% that I was referring from the latest reading.

因此，在上述 10% 中，我所指的最新讀數略高於 10%。

Velo-plus accounts for something close to 7% of this number.

Velo-plus 約佔該數字的 7%。

The Velo trifecta, that is the internal project that we call the refresh the velo, launched last year is, account for 33.5%.

去年啟動的 Velo trifecta，也就是我們稱為刷新 velo 的內部項目，佔 33.5%。

What we have been seeing in terms of the Velo growth is that, no more than 30%, 35% is coming from our previous Velo, so the majority is coming from outside, the previous Velo, which in in New York we are getting close now to 20% reading when you consider both the Velo-plus and the previous one.

就 Velo 的成長而言，我們看到的增幅不超過 30%，35% 來自我們之前的 Velo，所以大部分來自外部，即之前的 Velo，在紐約，如果同時考慮 Velo-plus 和之前的 Velo，我們現在接近 20% 的讀數。

And obviously the biggest feature of Velo-plus is the moisture and we see that this resonates with all types of consumers because we are using higher moistures outside the US, in markets where we have traditional oral, i.e., consumers coming from Vuse and some other oral products and consumers that are coming from cigarettes or Vapour.

顯然，Velo-plus 的最大特點是保濕性，我們發現它能引起各類消費者的共鳴，因為我們在美國以外的市場使用保濕性更高的產品，在那些有傳統口服產品的市場，即來自 Vuse 和其他一些口服產品的消費者，以及來自香煙或電子煙的消費者。

So a moisture is a is a key feature and is the main driver behind that.

因此，濕度是關鍵特徵，也是背後的主要驅動因素。

We have now, established our presence around 75,000 outlets in the US.

現在，我們已在美國建立了約 75,000 家門市。

And we plan to get to 110 outlets from April actually, which is the second quarter of the year.

實際上，我們計劃從 4 月份，也就是今年第二季開始，將門市數量增加到 110 家。

Brilliant, that's super clear.

太棒了，非常清楚。

And then one question I guess probably a clarification.

然後我想有一個問題可能需要澄清。

I do want to go back to Bangladesh.

我確實想回到孟加拉。

And this sort of 1-percentage-point profit impact that you're facing from Bangladesh, I guess I want to take you back to two years and I want to take you to Pakistan where you had, I guess, an even larger excise tax increase, an even larger price increase, volumes were down to 33% in 2023, but your profit, if I'm not mistaken, in local currencies actually grew 33%.

你們在孟加拉麵臨的這種 1 個百分點的利潤影響，我想帶你們回到兩年前，以巴基斯坦為例，那裡的消費稅增長幅度更大，價格上漲幅度更大，2023 年的銷量下降了 33%，但如果我沒記錯的話，你們的利潤以當地貨幣計算實際上增長了 33%。

So why is Bangladesh different?

那麼孟加拉為何有所不同？

Why are you anticipating profits to decline in that market with this price increase?

為什麼您預計隨著價格上漲該市場的利潤將會下降？

Yeah, let me tell you about Bangladesh.

是的，讓我跟你講孟加拉的情況。

Normally you will see an excise policy every mid of the year June.

通常您會在每年的六月中旬看到一項消費稅政策。

So what happened is that the government in the pressure to raise, tax collection, they decide to do an ad-hoc increase not just in cigarettes but they increase VAT and duties over 100 products including cigarettes and then the next specific excise increasing all tier points including the above inflation, the floor price.

因此，政府在提高稅收的壓力下，決定暫時提高稅收，不僅是香煙，還提高包括香菸在內的 100 種產品的增值稅和關稅，然後在下一個特定消費稅中提高所有層級的稅種，包括上述通貨膨脹，即最低價格。

So is question of really affordability because consumers were already struggling as many other consumers in the world with the cost of living, food prices increase, inflation of food price, and then on top of that had to face 100 products increase in price, and we had to increase across the board the price of cigarettes to cope with those excise increases.

所以這是一個真正的可負擔性問題，因為消費者與世界上許多其他消費者一樣，已經在為生活成本、食品價格上漲、食品價格通貨膨脹而苦苦掙扎，在此之上還要面對 100 種產品價格的上漲，而我們不得不全面提高香煙價格來應對消費稅的上漲。

Now this is most of the 1% impact.

現在，這大部分是 1% 的影響。

There is also the Australia case that we highlighted.

還有我們也重點提到的澳洲案例。

But what we saw in the Pakistan is a good example when geographies go too far in terms of excise shocks, they will reflect that this is counterintuitive in terms of their desire to increase tax collection because what happened is exactly the opposite in the second year after the establishing of illegal market, government trying to mitigate and take some actions to avoid this from happening.

但是，我們在巴基斯坦看到一個很好的例子，當地區在消費稅衝擊方面走得太遠時，他們會反思，這與他們增加稅收的願望是違反直覺的，因為在非法市場建立後的第二年發生的事情恰恰相反，政府試圖緩解並採取一些行動來避免這種情況的發生。

And this is our working assumption for 2026 that will be lapping '25 and not getting even further the impact in '26 related to that because the government in Bangladesh 10% of overall tax is coming from tobacco, which means that they are very reliant on that.

這是我們對 2026 年的工作假設，該假設將會涵蓋 25 年，並​​且不會對 26 年產生進一步的影響，因為孟加拉政府 10% 的總稅收來自菸草，這意味著他們非常依賴菸草。

They cannot afford to see the spread of illegal markets across different years and that's where we talk about the lapping in '25.

他們無法承受看到非法市場在不同年份蔓延的後果，這就是我們在 25 年談論的重疊問題。

Thanks, Tadeu.

謝謝，塔德烏。

I appreciate that.

我很感激。

Rashad Kawan, Morgan Stanley.

摩根士丹利的拉沙德卡萬 (Rashad Kawan)。

Hey, good morning guys.

嘿，大家早安。

Thank you for taking my questions.

感謝您回答我的問題。

Two for me, please.

請給我兩份。

So, first one, I know it's still relatively early, but you reiterated your getting to your midterm guide by 2026.

首先，我知道現在還相對較早，但你重申你將在 2026 年之前完成中期指引。

I guess what gives you confidence in being able to achieve that, how much of an improvement does that assume in US combustibles volumes and enforcement and illicit Vapour?

我想，是什麼讓您有信心實現這一目標，這對美國可燃物數量和執法以及非法蒸汽來說有多大的改善？

And then second question, talked about sustainable buybacks again Tadeu and again as you think about 2026, should we assume buybacks will continue irrespective of the Canadian settlement?

然後是第二個問題，Tadeu 再次談到了永續回購，當您想到 2026 年時，我們是否應該假設無論加拿大的和解如何，回購都將繼續？

I know you obviously have some flex from the ITC hotel stake, but potentially could you also look to monetize more of the ITC stake there to fund future buy back.

我知道您顯然從 ITC 酒店股份中獲得了一些利益，但您是否也有可能考慮將更多的 ITC 股份貨幣化，以便為未來的回購提供資金。

I guess just any thoughts around how that fits within your capital allocation priorities would be helpful.

我想，任何關於這如何適應您的資本配置優先事項的想法都會有所幫助。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Okay, thank you for the question.

好的，感謝您的提問。

I'm going to leave Soraya to talk about the capital location question.

我要讓索拉雅 (Soraya) 來談論首都位置的問題。

On the 2026, well, we just spoke about Bangladesh, which accounts for most of the 1%.

關於2026年，我們剛才談到了孟加拉國，它佔了1%的大部分。

The underlying revenue growth of 25% would have been around 2%.

25% 的潛在收入成長率應該在 2% 左右。

Which is pretty much in line with what we have in mind in this journey towards our midterm or in 2026.

這與我們邁向中期選舉或 2026 年大選的想法基本一致。

So like I just explained with our question, we believe that we'll be lapping that in '25.

因此，正如我剛才解釋我們的問題一樣，我們相信我們將在'25年實現這一目標。

And the other point is obviously we have invested into a completely reshuffle of our innovation ecosystem during 2024 and the reason why we call 2025 a deployment year is that throughout the year we will be launching this new initiatives.

另一點顯然是，我們已在 2024 年投資徹底改組我們的創新生態系統，我們之所以將 2025 年稱為部署年，是因為我們將在全年啟動這些新舉措。

Glo Hilo, for example, is a very different products than the one that we have currently, so we will increase substantially our competitiveness in tobacco heating products.

例如，Glo Hilo 與我們目前的產品非常不同，因此我們將大幅提高我們在菸草加熱產品方面的競爭力。

Velo-plus in the US now complements a rather very successful and winning product that we have outside the US.

美國的 Velo-plus 現在補充了我們在美國以外非常成功和受歡迎的產品。

In the fastest growing new category in the world today, which is modern oral, it's growing incidents and growing every daily consumption everywhere that we launch this product and we are clearly a leader in in that space and.

在當今世界上成長最快的新興類別，即現代口腔領域，隨著我們推出這項產品，其發生率和日常消費量都在不斷增長，我們顯然是該領域的領導者。

And also Vapour we will be working on in terms of establishing a premium -- creating actually a premium subcategory within Vapour with our new products.

此外，我們還將致力於打造高階的 Vapour 產品—利用我們的新產品在 Vapour 產品中創造一個高階子類別。

So when you come to 2026, you have all these products already in the market.

所以當到 2026 年時，所有這些產品都已經上市了。

So we will have a full year benefit of those products that will come throughout 2025.

因此，我們將從 2025 年全年推出的這些產品中獲益。

So that's another reason.

這是另一個原因。

In the US, we expect to see a more supportive macroeconomic environment that will resonate better in terms of low income consumers that has been impacted heavily over the last few years with very high levels of inflation, interest rates, so we expect throughout 2025 to see those macroeconomics be more supportive for the low income.

在美國，我們預計會看到一個更支持的宏觀經濟環境，這將對低收入消費者產生更好的影響。

And we really believe that the new administration will try to address a massive problem that we have today in the US which is the proliferation of illegal Vapour products that accounts for more than 7% of the total Vapour market in the US, because this is not really benefiting anyone.

我們確實相信，新政府將努力解決目前美國面臨的一個巨大問題，即非法電子煙產品的氾濫，這些產品占美國電子煙市場總量的 7% 以上，因為這實際上並沒有給任何人帶來好處。

It's not benefiting the US consumers.

這並沒有為美國消費者帶來好處。

That is not having access to the latest innovative smokeless products.

也就是說無法獲得最新的創新無菸產品。

It's not benefiting states that could have been collecting tax.

這並沒有使本來可以徵稅的州受益。

It's not benefiting consumers that doesn't have access to high quality products.

無法獲得高品質產品的消費者沒有好處。

That nobody knows exactly what is in those products and the legal players because we don't have a level playing field.

由於我們沒有公平的競爭環境，所以沒有人確切知道這些產品和合法參與者裡面含有什麼。

So I do believe that -- now obviously how much of those improvements that's why we put the range between three to five revenue, four to six operating profits exactly to cope with those ranges.

所以我確實相信——現在顯然這些改進有多少，這就是為什麼我們將範圍設定在三到五個收入，四到六個營業利潤之間，以準確應對這些範圍。

If it's going beyond our expectation we'll be more on the high end of the range.

如果超出我們的預期，我們將會更傾向於該範圍的高端。

If it's less of our expectation be on the lower end of the range.

如果它低於我們的預期，那麼它就會處於範圍的低端。

But we'll know more of that as we go along in 2025.

但隨著 2025 年的到來，我們會對此了解更多。

Can I just make an addition on that.

我可以對此做一點補充嗎？

Tadeu referred to the revenue impact on 2025, so 1% from Bangladesh and Australia, whereas on APFO there is a 2% impact.

Tadeu 提到了 2025 年的收入影響，因此來自孟加拉國和澳洲的影響為 1%，而對 APFO 的影響為 2%。

So if you think about that in terms of our 1.5% to 2% guidance then on an underlying basis, it will be 3.5% to 4.5%.

因此，如果您按照我們的 1.5% 到 2% 的指導方針來考慮，那麼從根本上來說，它將是 3.5% 到 4.5%。

Okay, just taking your question on sustainable buybacks in 2026, as Tadeu mentioned, we will be back to our three to five, four to six growth algorithm in 2026 and as I mentioned earlier in the presentation, excluding Canada takes us to a leverage of 2.75 times.

好的，就您關於 2026 年可持續回購的問題，正如 Tadeu 所提到的，到 2026 年，我們將回到三比五、四比六的增長演算法，正如我在演講中早些時候提到的，不包括加拿大，我們的槓桿率將達到 2.75 倍。

So looking in terms of capital allocation in 2026, we will aim to get back into our leveraged corridor of 2 times to 2.5 times, and we will continue to balance cash returns between basically our progressive dividend policy.

因此，從 2026 年的資本配置角度來看，我們的目標是回到 2 倍至 2.5 倍的槓桿區間，並且我們將繼續在漸進式股利政策之間平衡現金回報。

We announced 2% this year and we will continue with this policy because having met a lot of our shareholders, I know how much they value the dividends, but we will also look at -- we will be generating enough cash I think mentioned in the CMD, once we reach our midterm algorithm, we'll be generating around GBP8 billion of cash per annum.

我們今年宣布了 2% 的股息率，並且我們將繼續執行這項政策，因為在與許多股東會面後，我知道他們非常重視股息，但我們也會考慮——我們將產生足夠的現金，我想在 CMD 中提到過，一旦我們達到中期演算法，我們每年將產生約 80 億英鎊的現金。

So we will have sufficient to be able to balance the progressive dividend policy with a sustainable buyback share buyback.

因此，我們將有足夠的能力平衡漸進式股利政策和可持續的回購股票回購。

So in answer to your question, yes, we will be looking to maintain, I'll remind you that we've just completed a GBP700 million share buyback and we are committed to doing the share buyback of GBP900 million this year.

因此，回答你的問題，是的，我們將尋求維持，我提醒你，我們剛剛完成了 7 億英鎊的股票回購，我們承諾今年回購 9 億英鎊的股票。

Thank you very much, very clear.

非常感謝，非常清楚。

Gaurav Jain, Barclays.

巴克萊銀行的 Gaurav Jain。

Hi, good morning, Tadeu.

你好，早安，塔德烏。

Good morning Soraya.

早上好，索拉雅。

Three questions from me as well.

我也有三個問題。

So one is, on the ITC hotel stage, you want directly 15%, I think, of that company.

因此，一方面，在 ITC 酒店階段，我認為你直接想要的是該公司的 15%。

What would be your plans, for that?

對此您有何計劃？

Okay, as I have referred to in the past where we -- BAT has no interest to become a long term shareholder of a hotel chain in India and as a consequence, it's in the right moment that we will decide what is the best moment to maximize shareholder value, we'll be divesting and we'll be using proceeds to making sure that we get to the leverage corridor of 2.5 times and 2 times by 2026.

好的，正如我過去提到的，BAT 無意成為印度連鎖飯店的長期股東，因此，現在正是決定股東價值最大化的最佳時機，我們將進行剝離，並使用收益確保到 2026 年達到 2.5 倍和 2 倍的槓桿率。

Sure, thank you.

當然，謝謝。

The second is, just on heated products background, I hear the comments that, there's a new platform getting launched this year, but -- I mean, and if -- and I know there was a, diversitude of Russia and Ukraine.

第二，僅在熱門產品背景下，我聽到這樣的評論，即今年將會推出一個新平台，但是 - 我的意思是，如果 - 而且我知道俄羅斯和烏克蘭存在多樣性。

Which has been impact to report the numbers the way we see it, but if we just look at, the APMEA numbers which largely Japan and Korea, it is like flat when competitors are clearly grown much, higher.

這對我們所看到的數位報告產生了影響，但如果我們只看 APMEA 的數字（主要是日本和韓國），當競爭對手明顯增長得更高時，它是持平的。

So do you believe that you will be able to accelerate this growth to in line with market growth?

那麼您是否相信您能夠加速這一成長以與市場成長保持一致？

Yeah.

是的。

Well, what we were happening in Japan, across 2024, we used to have a legacy, system there which is a super slim product, and this system got completely replaced by glo Hyper basically, and, we actually increased price in order to accelerate this migration from the super slim to the demis limb which is the whole glo Hyper.

嗯，我們在日本發生的事情是，到 2024 年，我們曾經有一個傳統的系統，它是一種超薄產品，而這個系統基本上完全被 glo Hyper 所取代，而且，我們實際上提高了價格，以加速從超薄到半肢，也就是整個 glo Hyper 的轉變。

So as a consequence, you haven't seen much difference in terms of the volumes, the revenue increase, but at the end we know that glo Hyper Pro is a much more attractive platform than the previous super slim that we used to have.

因此，在銷售和營收成長方面，你不會看到太大的差異，但最終我們知道，glo Hyper Pro 比我們以前的超薄平台更具吸引力。

They have a higher retention.

他們的保留率更高。

They have average daily consumption which is higher.

他們的平均每日消費量較高。

And resonates in terms of brand attributes with consumers in a much better way than the previous one.

並且在品牌屬性方面比以前更能與消費者產生共鳴。

So that's basically the story in Japan in 2024 in Hyper and this is impacted the whole region performance because most of the HP in the regions coming from Japan.

這是 2024 年日本在 Hyper 中的故事，這影響了整個地區的表現，因為該地區的大部分 HP 都來自日本。

And obviously with the glo Hilo as we said this is not happening until middle of the year but in the second half of the year we expect to complement the offer that we have today with a much more improved and our expectations that we're going to be in a much better position to make more better inroads in terms of category share of the of tobacco heating products.

顯然，正如我們所說，Glo Hilo 要到年中才會上市，但在今年下半年，我們預計將在今天的產品基礎上提供更完善的產品，我們期望我們將處於更有利的位置，在煙草加熱產品類別份額方面取得更大的進展。

Sure, and my last question is on the US.

當然，我的最後一個問題是關於美國的。

So you know this year, in FY24 year revenues declined 3.5% and your cigarette volume is down 10%, your revenue is down 4%, so your price is clearly lagged, what the industry, leader there was taking.

所以你知道今年，在 24 財年，收入下降了 3.5%，香菸銷量下降了 10%，收入下降了 4%，所以你的價格明顯滯後，這是行業領導者所採取的措施。

So when you are saying that if FY25 US revenues will be flat.

所以當您說如果 FY25 美國收入將持平時。

It's more or less that now the pricing on combustibles will start aligning with the industry leader.

現在，可燃物的定價或多或少將開始與行業領導者保持一致。

Is that how I should think about it?

我該這麼想嗎？

Well, we cannot talk about pricing Gaurav, but, like I said before, we'll be lapping a weaker comparative because we had to do, the investments that we refer to, and we had to lather brands, to make it more adapted to the reality of the US consumer and this all has an implication in terms of the top line of the company, but the important thing is that all these initiatives now has been concluded and then we start in 2025 in with a different dynamic.

好吧，我們無法談論 Gaurav 的定價，但是，就像我之前說過的，我們將進行較弱的比較，因為我們必須進行我們所提到的投資，並且我們必須打造品牌，使其更適應美國消費者的現實，而這一切都對公司的營收產生影響，但重要的是，所有這些舉措現在都已結束，然後我們將在 2025 年開始以不同的動態。

Thank you so much.

太感謝了。

Rey Wium, Anchor SV.

雷·維姆 (Rey Wium)，主教練 SV。

Good day, Tadeu and Soraya.

塔德烏 (Tadeu) 和索拉雅 (Soraya)，大家好。

I just want to maybe just quickly just, focus on the Canadian situation.

我只是想快速地關註一下加拿大的情況。

This question, I just want to know whether the annual settlements that will come through and I appreciate it's a bit early, but will those be tax deductible for these cap?

這個問題，我只是想知道年度結算是否會通過，我知道現在有點早，但這些上限是否可以免稅？

Sure.

當然。

Currently, I mean, it's only a proposed plan.

目前，我的意思是，這只是一個擬議計劃。

I'm sure you can appreciate the scale and complexity of the settlement, but our current early interpretation is that they will be tax deductible, but obviously we'll get further clarification once the settlement is done.

我相信您能理解和解的規模和複雜性，但我們目前的初步解釋是，這些錢可以免稅，但顯然，和解完成後我們會得到進一步的澄清。

Good.

好的。

Now, the other interesting question that I have is, the total settlement amount of it is CAD32 billion, obviously needs to be, paid over the years through profits.

現在，我的另一個有趣的問題是，其總和解金額為 320 億加元，顯然需要透過多年利潤來支付。

Is there a minimum liability that you face?

您面臨的最低責任是多少？

Let's say for instance, the cigarette industry, declines at such a rapid rate that Canada goes smoke-free, let's say after 10 years and the total payments, let's say at a mass to about CAD20 billion.

舉例來說，菸草業衰退的速度如此之快，以致加拿大在 10 年後成為無菸國家，總支出約 200 億加元。

Is there a top up that you will need to do, let's say for industry-wise for the other fi CAD12 billion for instance?

您是否需要進行補充，例如為產業補充另外的資金 120 億加元？

No, there is no minimum liability.

不，沒有最低責任。

The provision that we've made in the accounts this year of GBP6.2 billion is basically split into two amounts.

我們今年在帳目中撥出的 62 億英鎊準備金基本上分為兩部分。

The GBP3.7 billion is obviously our estimate of the liability, and GBP2.5 billion is the current cash that we hold, but obviously depending on the evolution of the industry, that's what will be paid out.

37 億英鎊顯然是我們對負債的估計，25 億英鎊是我們目前持有的現金，但顯然這取決於產業的發展，這將是需要支付的金額。

But this is our best estimate is the GBP3.7 billion obviously on a discounted basis.

但這是我們最好的估計，顯然是折扣後的 37 億英鎊。

Excellent.

出色的。

And have you sort of finalized what your share will be of these payments, between the main industry players?

您是否已經確定了主要行業參與者之間應承擔的付款份額？

As I said, it's our current estimate, and the next steps.

正如我所說，這是我們目前的估計和下一步的措施。

So it's our current estimate of what the liability would be the next milestones in the case is by the March 3, the judge needs to either approve the plan or we're back into negotiation, and then we have a 21 day window for appeal where the judge needs to approve the basis for the appeal.

因此，我們目前對責任的估計是，案件的下一個里程碑是 3 月 3 日，法官需要批准該計劃，否則我們將重新進行談判，然後我們有 21 天的上訴時間，法官需要批准上訴的依據。

That's basically the next steps.

這基本上就是接下來的步驟。

But on the IFRS --

但在國際財務報告準則上—

It's okay.

沒關係。

And I guess

我想

--

--

Sorry, go ahead.

抱歉，請說。

Yeah, I just want to quickly stop, the situation in Australia, that the market has declined at a material rate in recent years.

是的，我只是想快速停止澳洲的情況，即市場近年來一直在大幅下滑。

I mean, I think, based on what your competitors said that the market was like basically 5 billion sticks in 2024.

我的意思是，我認為，根據您的競爭對手的說法，到 2024 年市場容量基本上是 50 億支。

I just want to know what -- I mean, is Australia still profitable for you?

我只是想知道——我的意思是，澳洲對你來說仍然有利可圖嗎？

And, how long can you continue to operate in such a diminishing market until you, maybe decide also to exit that market?

而且，在這樣一個不斷萎縮的市場中，你還能繼續經營多久，直到你決定退出該市場？

Yeah, look, it's clearly, [youth] thought policy, that we are seeing in real life and, unfortunately this case, I think that Australia has become one of these outliers in the world like we said today 65% of nicotine consumption is already legal in Australia.

是的，你看，這顯然是我們在現實生活中看到的（青年）思想政策，不幸的是，在這種情況下，我認為澳大利亞已經成為世界上的異類之一，就像我們今天所說的那樣，65％的尼古丁消費在澳大利亞已經合法。

You can count on a handful fingers -- what are the counts that you can find this type of, very extreme case.

你可以用手指數出有多少個這樣的極端案例。

And we hope that this will be at certain points recognized by the authorities and they can make something about that because at the end of the day it's not just about tax collection that's reduced dramatically but also we know that these illegal activities always come together with other crime criminal activities.

我們希望當局能夠在某種程度上認識到這一點，並採取相應措施，因為歸根結底，這不僅僅是稅收大幅減少的問題，而且我們也知道，這些非法活動總是與其他犯罪活動相伴而生。

And on top of that, for example, what's happening in Vapour, where basically 100% is illegal you lose completely control in terms of assets to [youth], in terms of what consumers are consuming because these products are completely with a very doubtful type of quality standards.

除此之外，例如 Vapour 產業，基本上 100％ 是非法的，你完全失去了對 [年輕人] 資產的控制，也失去了對消費者消費的控制，因為這些產品的品質標準完全令人懷疑。

So we hope, that the government will wake up for that and take some action related to that and that's the reason why we are still supportive of the country, of our people there obviously it's still profitable, otherwise we wouldn't have had this impact in our numbers in 2025, but the reality is that we are in the hope that these things can change as soon as they can understand what is the reality is.

所以我們希望政府能夠意識到這一點，並採取一些相關行動，這也是我們仍然支持這個國家、支持我們人民的原因，顯然這仍然是有利可圖的，否則我們不會在 2025 年對我們的數字產生這樣的影響，但現實是，我們希望這些事情能夠在他們能夠了解現實情況後儘快改變。

Okay, thank you very much

好的，非常感謝

Damian McNeela, Deutsche Numis.

麥克尼拉 (Damian McNeela)，德國錢幣公司 (Deutsche Numis)。

Hi, morning, Tadeu.

嗨，早上好，塔德烏。

Morning, Soraya.

早上好，索拉雅。

I know we've had a couple of questions already on the US, but I just wanted to clarify because I think some of the things, that need to go best for you in the US are a function of things that are outside of your control like, US, consumer, and the illicit trade.

我知道我們已經有幾個關於美國的問題了，但我只是想澄清一下，因為我認為在美國對你們來說最有利的一些事情是由你們無法控制的因素決定的，比如美國、消費者和非法貿易。

I just wanted to clarify in your FY26 sort of return to -- the sort of the growth outgo at the bottom end of the range that's being driven by everything that you can control in the US, but at the top end of the range that would benefit from things that are outside of your control.

我只是想澄清一下您在 2026 財年的回報——範圍底端的增長支出是由您在美國可以控制的一切因素推動的，但範圍頂端的增長支出將受益於您無法控制的因素。

Is the first question.

是第一個問題。

Second question is on, can you provide any quantitative or qualitative data around what drove the improvement in new category profit contribution in the period by sort of subcategory please, and they're my two questions.

第二個問題是，您能否提供任何定量或定性數據，說明是什麼推動了本期間按子類別劃分的新類別利潤貢獻的提高，這是我的兩個問題。

Yeah, thank you.

是的，謝謝。

Look, the first question is doesn't work precisely like that, but I was trying to articulate in line with what you are just describing.

看，第一個問題並不完全是那樣的，但我試著按照你剛才描述的內容來表達。

And our numbers in 2026 will be, easily within the range or at the top of the range if we see the a proper meaningful enforcement on the Vapour business, for example, an improvement in the macroeconomics, but like I said, we are already expecting 2025 to be for the US to be turned into the corner into a more supportive business for the rest of BAT.

如果我們看到蒸汽煙業務得到適當、有意義的執行，例如宏觀經濟有所改善，那麼我們在 2026 年的數字將很容易達到該範圍之內或範圍的頂部，但就像我說過的，我們已經預計到 2025 年美國將轉危為安，成為對英美煙草公司其他部分更具支持力的業務。

So, we believe that we can deliver the range of three to five, four to six in '26, and we expect that if we are surprised for better enforcement, better macroeconomics than we have in our plans that we actually could be more in the upper side of the range.

因此，我們相信我們可以在26年實現3到5、4到6的目標，並且我們預計，如果我們對更好的執行和更好的宏觀經濟狀況感到驚訝，那麼我們實際上可能會處於該範圍的上限。

You want to take that?

你想拿走那個嗎？

Yes.

是的。

In terms of the improvement on the new category profitability, if we look at the main drivers, firstly, we've supported the top line with RGM going forward and also we've been able to optimize our cost of sales by driving scale and as a result, you'll see in the results that we've actually accreted our gross margin in new categories by 500 basis points.

就新類別獲利能力的提升而言，如果我們看一下主要的驅動因素，首先，我們透過 RGM 支持了未來的營業收入，同時我們還能夠透過推動規模來優化銷售成本，因此，您會在結果中看到，我們實際上已經將新類別的毛利率提高了 500 個基點。

Further down, getting to contribution, we've also been able to work on our return on investment by focusing on the largest profit pools, so reallocation of resources on the largest profit pools, but also we've been driving throughout the business across all the business unit dashboards with data analytics to support decision making.

進一步說，談到貢獻，我們還能夠透過專注於最大的利潤池來提高投資回報率，從而將資源重新分配到最大的利潤池上，而且我們也一直在推動整個業務的所有業務部門儀表板使用數據分析來支持決策。

And a marketing spend effectiveness program which we've begun to roll out and hopefully throughout this year we will roll out throughout the group and that's really been supporting the delivery and contribution as you will have seen we've delivered over GBP250 million in category contribution.

我們已經開始推行行銷支出效率計劃，希望今年能夠在整個集團推行，這確實對交付和貢獻起到了支持作用，正如您所看到的，我們已為該類別帶來了超過 2.5 億英鎊的貢獻。

We're up to 7% and there's a lot more to come.

我們已經達到 7%，未來還會有更大的進步。

We'll continue on this trajectory enhancing contribution.

我們將繼續沿著這軌跡不斷增強貢獻。

If I had to highlight some of the categories I think in HP and tobacco heating products, we drove particularly a better contribution there through RGM, as I said, supporting the top line and taking some pricing, but also reducing losses on devices and benefiting from scale.

如果我必須強調 HP 和菸草加熱產品中的某些類別，那麼我們透過 RGM 在那裡取得了更好的貢獻，正如我所說的那樣，支持了營收並採取了一些定價，同時也減少了設備損失並受益於規模。

Modern oral, as is a highly profitable category, and Vaping , we continue to work on the profitability by focusing on the premium side of Vaping whilst we roll out our innovations going forward.

現代口服液是一個利潤豐厚的類別，而對於電子煙而言，我們將繼續致力於盈利能力，專注於電子煙的高端產品，同時不斷推出我們的創新產品。

Very clear, thank you very much.

非常清楚，非常感謝。

Richard Felton, Goldman Sachs.

高盛的理查費爾頓。

Thank you very much.

非常感謝。

Good morning, guys.

大家早安。

Three questions for me, please.

請問我三個問題。

The first one is on the illicit Vapour category outside of the US.

第一個是美國境外的非法蒸汽類別。

I'd be interested to know any thoughts or observations on what you're seeing across your markets in terms of the growth of illicit Vapour.

我很有興趣了解您對您所在市場非法電子煙增長情況的想法或觀察。

I know there's a lot of attention on the US, but are there any other markets which are following a similar pattern?

我知道美國受到廣泛關注，但有其他市場也遵循類似的模式嗎？

And does that have any implications for your appetite to invest in that category?

這對您投資該類別的興趣有何影響？

Second question, is there anything on your guidance in terms of phasing that you can call out?

第二個問題，您在分階段指導方面有什麼可以指出的嗎？

I know in the statement you say second half weighted, but is there any quantification that you can provide around that?

我知道您在聲明中說了後半部分加權，但您能對此提供任何量化資訊嗎？

And then the third one, apologies if I missed it, but could you just remind us what the new tobacco regulation actually is in Australia?

然後是第三個問題，如果我沒注意到的話請原諒，但是您能否提醒我們一下澳洲新的菸草法規到底是什麼？

Thank you.

謝謝。

Okay.

好的。

Illicit Vapour category, the biggest problems that we are facing nowadays in terms of, even though because of the size of the Vapour market is basically US and Canada.

非法蒸汽類別，是我們目前面臨的最大問題，儘管由於蒸汽市場的規模基本上在美國和加拿大。

Canada, remember that Quebec has announced the ban on all flavors other than tobacco and, but without any enforcement and then the following day.

加拿大，請記住，魁北克已經宣布禁止除菸草以外的所有口味，但沒有任何強制措施，然後第二天。

Is exactly the same situation that you see in the US.

和你在美國看到的情況完全一樣。

All these, illegal products coming in with all the flavors back to the markets and, thousands of puffs and with a completely uncontrolled in terms of the quality of the products that are being sold.

所有這些非法產品都帶著各種口味回到市場，人們吸了成千上萬口，而且對所售產品的品質完全不受控制。

And -- but these are, I would say the biggest two, obviously we have situations where things are much more under control.

而且——但我想說，這兩者是最重要的，顯然，我們的情況是更可控的。

We go to France for example, Quebec is sold under tobacconist is a more controlled environment because you have retail license.

以法國為例，魁北克的菸草銷售環境更可控，因為你有零售許可證。

That's why in the discussions we are having, is happening here in the UK.

這就是我們在英國進行的討論的原因。

We are a very strong advocate for retail license, and hopefully the government will do something about that in the final, act related to that.

我們堅決主張零售許可證，希望政府在最終的相關行動中能對此採取措施。

We have a case of New Zealand that has been very well managed Vapour.

我們有一個紐西蘭的案例，其 Vapour 管理得非常好。

And has a very good impact in terms of reduction of incidence of cigarettes and towards a much more controlled increase of Vapours but we also have cases like Australia that I had just spoken about which is 100% of illegal at 9% of consumption of the population all basically illegal Vapour.

這對於減少香菸的發生率和對電子煙的成長進行更可控的促進作用，但我們也遇到像我剛才提到的澳洲這樣的情況，那裡的電子煙 100% 都是非法的，9% 的人口消費量基本上都是非法的電子煙。

All the lights of Malaysia that also have opened up but without enforcement.

馬來西亞的所有燈光也已開放，但沒有實施。

The key thing here is not about, giving up on the category even though because the category is the -- in terms of if you analyze the number of consumers using these, smokeless products, Vapour is by far the largest category.

這裡的關鍵不是放棄這個類別，因為這個類別是－如果你分析使用這些無菸產品的消費者數量，蒸氣是迄今為止最大的類別。

And has a lot of potential to convert smokers outside cigarettes and using those that want to carry on using nicotine to a much less lesser risk of doing that.

並且具有很大的潛力，可以讓吸煙者放棄香煙，並讓那些想繼續使用尼古丁的人降低吸煙的風險。

But this needs to be properly regulated and with proper enforcement and that's why I put a lot of emphasis on omni because we want to provoke this debate in the various jurisdictions that we operate and some of them listen to what we say we have just seen Chile now approving Vapour in the marketplace start in a few weeks.

但這需要適當的監管和適當的執行，這就是我如此強調全方位的原因，因為我們希望在我們經營的各個司法管轄區內引發這場辯論，其中一些司法管轄區會聽取我們的意見，我們剛剛看到智利現在批准 Vapour 在幾週後開始在市場上銷售。

So we want to work as much as we can closer to policyholders in order to not lose this this opportunity that would have a tremendous positive impact on public health.

因此，我們希望盡可能地貼近保單持有人，以免失去這個對公眾健康產生巨大正面影響的機會。

So that's what we see in the in illicit Vapour obviously a challenge and our strategy related to move in the creating a more premium segment within Vapour also has to do with this proliferation of products in some markets where the enforcement is still not present.

所以，我們在非法電子煙中看到的顯然是一個挑戰，而我們的策略是在電子煙中打造更高端的細分市場，這也與一些執法尚未到位的市場中產品的激增有關。

In terms of, your question of, second half weighted, we will see the benefits of all these new launch coming more towards the second half and a lot to do with that.

就您關於下半年加權的問題而言，我們將看到所有這些新產品發布的好處更多地出現在下半年，這與此有很大關係。

I spoke about glo Hilo.

我談到了 glo Hilo。

The glo Hilo is the first opportunity that BAT has actually to participate in the in the premium side of a tobacco heating product category and this would be a creative, obviously for the company, but this is all coming in the second half of the year.

glo Hilo 是英美菸草公司首次有機會涉足菸草加熱產品類別的高端領域，這對該公司來說顯然是一個創意，但這一切都將在今年下半年實現。

So the other innovations we spoke, Velo-plus doing extremely well obviously when it comes to the second half they will be more established in the market so this also be supportive.

因此，我們談到的其他創新，Velo-plus 顯然表現非常出色，到下半年他們將在市場上更加站穩腳跟，因此這也會提供支援。

So these are the reasons why we expect because most of the revenue and going back to the three to five, four to six is being driven by new categories has been the case now for some time in BAT.

這就是我們預期的原因，因為大部分收入以及回到第三到第五、第四到第六個類別的收入是由新類別推動的，這種情況在 BAT 中已經持續了一段時間了。

We have spoken about this before.

我們以前談過這個問題。

Out of the three, the revenue, combustible needs to give us between 0% flattish to 2%.

在這三者中，收入、可燃性需要為我們帶來 0% 到 2% 之間的成長。

All the balance will come from the new categories and it's more or less the same when we talk about the APFO line and between 1% to 2% to 3%.

所有餘額都將來自新的類別，當我們談論 APFO 線時，它或多或少是相同的，在 1% 到 2% 到 3% 之間。

Most of the difference will come from new categories.

大部分差異將來自於新的類別。

So and this is one feature that we'll be seeing more and more moving forward as new card becomes more and more relevant in our business.

因此，隨著新卡在我們的業務中變得越來越重要，我們將看到越來越多的這項功能。

And the new legislation in Australia.

以及澳洲的新立法。

It's the highest -- it's the biggest change that happened since the planned package was introduced in 2012 encompass a number of things in terms of new health warnings through the stick, different pack formats that they have been eliminated, for example, and obviously together with the continuation of this ad-hoc on top of the inflationary excise that happens in the first half of the year.

這是自 2012 年推出計劃以來發生的最大變化，涵蓋了許多內容，例如在煙盒上增加新的健康警示語、取消不同的包裝形式等，顯然，再加上今年上半年通貨膨脹導致的消費稅的持續徵收。

So this is obviously the illegal market doesn't have any of that and that's one of the reasons why illegal is scraping up big time in Australia.

所以顯然非法市場不存在這些，這也是為什麼非法活動在澳洲大行其道的原因之一。

Now just to put a -- I would like to use this as an opportunity just to invite you all to have more holistic view because obviously there is always be some problems here and there, but there are a lot of opportunities as well.

現在只是想說——我想藉此機會請大家有更全面的視角，因為顯然這裡或那裡總是存在一些問題，但也有很多機會。

The fact that BAT has the strength of having a moot geography and moot category portfolio helps us to mitigate some of those pressures that happen in some locations.

事實上，BAT 擁有模擬法庭地域和模擬法庭類別組合的優勢，這有助於我們緩解某些地區出現的一些壓力。

We saw this, all the way back in the COVID where all the other two regions suffered a lot that was supported by the US that do extremely well more recently with the US going through an investment phase and the other two reasons like we highlighted today in the 2024 results stepping up.

我們早在新冠疫情期間就看到了這一點，其他兩個地區都遭受了巨大的損失，而這兩個地區都得到了美國的支持，最近這兩個地區表現非常好，因為美國正處於投資階段，而我們今天強調的另外兩個原因導致 2024 年的結果不斷上升。

The fact that combustors is going through a hard time and being compensated by the new category.

事實上，燃燒器正在經歷一段艱難時期，並透過新的類別得到補償。

So this is a dynamic that a company like BAT has all the possibilities to navigate through it and I'm very confident that with all the foundations we created in '24 and being in transition in '25, we'll be able to go back to '26 and the beauty and we spoke about Canada at certain stage we would have to have a definition of Canada.

因此，對於英美菸草公司這樣的公司來說，他們有各種可能性來駕馭這種動態，我非常有信心，憑藉我們在24年創建的所有基礎以及25年的轉型，我們將能夠回到26年，回到那個美麗而又充滿希望的時代。

We could never deconsolidate Canada due to IFRS.

由於遵循國際財務報告準則，我們永遠無法將加拿大業務拆分。

We explained this before.

我們之前解釋過這一點。

This will be at a certain stage, this would be happening at certain moments.

這將在某個階段發生，這將在某個時刻發生。

We decided to do this right now in 2025 because we believe that hopefully we are close to a solution that could come in 2025.

我們決定在 2025 年就這樣做，因為我們相信我們預計在 2025 年找到解決方案。

But the clouds are dissipating, so we used to have a US mental band that looks more and more distance, US, low nic-cap that looks more and more distant, if any time we come back or not.

但是雲層正在消散，所以我們過去常常有一個美國精神帶看起來越來越遠，美國的低尼古丁帽看起來越來越遙遠，無論我們什麼時候回來。

I have very doubtful on that, but this is in effect is a tobacco ban -- effectively a tobacco ban in the US which will this administration will never agree with that.

我對此非常懷疑，但這實際上是一項菸草禁令——實際上是美國的一項菸草禁令，本屆政府永遠不會同意。

We had a lot of doubts about our ability to make money out of new categories when we have more than a GBP1 billion of loss in the P&L today we have a 7% operating margin in new categories just in four years a swing between GBP1.1 billion loss to GBP0.3 million of positives.

當我們今天的損益表損失超過10億英鎊時，我們對從新類別中賺錢的能力有很多懷疑，僅在四年時間裡，我們在新類別中的營業利潤率就達到了7%，在11億英鎊的虧損和30萬英鎊的盈利之間波動。

We have built a leader brand in modern oral, in the fastest growing new categories that we have.

我們在現代口腔領域以及成長最快的新類別中打造了一個領先品牌。

We have revamped completely our innovation portfolio, have a much more competitive product in tobacco hitting product that we start to make a difference from '25 onwards.

我們徹底改造了我們的創新產品組合，在菸草打擊產品方面擁有了更具競爭力的產品，並從'25年開始發揮作用。

And we also have a very well established Vapour business that if we address the enforcement elements that we were speaking about this would be putting us in a very in leading position to benefit from that.

而且我們也有非常成熟的蒸汽煙業務，如果我們解決好我們談到的執法問題，我們將處於非常領先的地位並從中受益。

And obviously the leverage has been a concern and we have demonstrated that we can leverage the company to the targets that we need.

顯然，槓桿率一直是我們關心的問題，而我們已經證明，我們可以利用槓桿率來實現我們所需的目標。

So I would like to invite you to have this holistic view, because I think that this is quite important.

所以我想請大家有這種整體的視角，因為我覺得這很重要。

Thank you Tadeu.

謝謝你，塔德烏。

I'm afraid that's all we have time for today.

恐怕我們今天的時間就這麼多了。

If you have question hasn't been answered them, please don't hesitate to contact the IR team and we will help me directly at.

如果您的問題尚未得到解答，請隨時聯絡 IR 團隊，我們將直接為您提供協助。

I'd like to hand back to Tadeu for some closing remarks.

我想把發言權交還給塔德烏，請他做最後發言。

Thank you all for listening today and for your questions.

感謝大家今天的收聽與提問。

To close, I'm pleased that we have delivered 2024 results in line with expectations.

最後，我很高興我們 2024 年的業績符合預期。

While there is still more to do, I'm confident that the investment actions we have taken at the right way forward for BAT as we build our momentum through '25 to deliver our medium term, we have been 2026.

雖然還有很多事情要做，但我相信，我們為英美菸草公司採取的投資行動是正確的，因為我們將在2025年累積勢頭，實現我們的中期目標，也就是2026年。

We will continue to reward our shareholders through strong cash returns, including our progressive dividend and sustainable share buyback and build on our foundations to deliver long-term growth and value-creation.

我們將繼續透過強勁的現金回報回報我們的股東，包括我們的累進股息和可持續的股票回購，並在我們的基礎上實現長期成長和價值創造。

Thank you again for joining us, and I look forward to update you on our progress at our half-year results.

再次感謝您的加入我們，我期待向您通報我們的半年業績進展。