貝萊德 (BLK) 2023 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good morning. My name is Cynthia, and I will be your conference facilitator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the BlackRock, Inc. Third Quarter 2023 Earnings Teleconference.

早安.我叫辛西婭，今天我將擔任你們的會議主持人。現在，我歡迎大家參加貝萊德公司 2023 年第三季財報電話會議。

Our host for today's call will be Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Laurence D. Fink; Chief Financial Officer, Martin S. Small; President, Robert S. Kapito; and General Counsel, Christopher J. Meade. (Operator Instructions) Thank you.

今天電話會議的主持人是董事長兼執行長 Laurence D. Fink；財務長 Martin S. Small；羅伯特‧卡皮托 (Robert S. Kapito) 主席；和總法律顧問克里斯托弗·J·米德 (Christopher J. Meade)。 （操作員說明）謝謝。

Mr. Meade, you may begin your conference.

米德先生，您可以開始會議了。

Good morning, everyone. I'm Chris Meade, the General Counsel of BlackRock.

大家，早安。我是克里斯·米德，貝萊德的總法律顧問。

Before we begin, I'd like to remind you that during the course of this call, we may make a number of forward-looking statements. We call your attention to the fact that BlackRock's actual results may, of course, differ from these statements. As you know, BlackRock has filed reports with the SEC, which lists some of the factors that may cause the results of BlackRock to differ materially from what we say today. BlackRock assumes no duty and does not undertake to update any forward-looking statements.

在開始之前，我想提醒您，在本次電話會議期間，我們可能會做出一些前瞻性陳述。我們提請您注意，貝萊德的實際結果當然可能與這些陳述有所不同。如您所知，貝萊德已向 SEC 提交了報告，其中列出了一些可能導致貝萊德業績與我們今天所說的產生重大差異的因素。貝萊德不承擔任何責任，也不承諾更新任何前瞻性陳述。

So with that, I'll turn it over to Martin.

因此，我會將其交給馬丁。

Thanks, Chris, and good morning, everyone. It's my pleasure to present results for the third quarter of 2023. Before I turn it over to Larry, I'll review our financial performance and business results. Our earnings release discloses both GAAP and as-adjusted financial results. I'll be focusing primarily on our as-adjusted results.

謝謝克里斯，大家早安。我很高興公佈 2023 年第三季的業績。在將其交給 Larry 之前，我將回顧我們的財務表現和業務成果。我們的收益報告揭露了公認會計準則和調整後的財務表現。我將主要關注我們調整後的結果。

Rate hikes over the last 18 months mean that for the first time in nearly 20 years, clients can earn a real return in cash. In the short term, this has benefited many portfolios. Investors have been able to generate positive returns while waiting for inflation to cool and for more policy certainty from central bankers. This weighting has weighed on industry flows, including here at BlackRock, consistent with prior periods of policy uncertainty like 2013, 2016 and 2018.

過去 18 個月的升息意味著客戶近 20 年來首次能夠獲得真正的現金回報。短期內，這使許多投資組合受益。在等待通膨降溫和央行行長提供更多政策確定性的同時，投資人已經能夠獲得正回報。這種權重對產業流動造成了壓力，包括貝萊德，這與 2013 年、2016 年和 2018 年等政策不確定時期的情況一致。

At September's Federal Reserve meeting, central bankers decided to pause, keeping the policy rate steady, but communicated forward guidance that interest rates will stay higher for longer. We think this is good news. It begins to offer investors more clarity about time frames and entry points into fixed income and equities and a path to re-risking global investment portfolios.

在九月的聯準會會議上，央行行長們決定暫停，保持政策利率穩定，但傳達了利率將在更長時間內保持較高水準的前瞻性指引。我們認為這是個好消息。它開始讓投資者更清楚地了解固定收益和股票的時間框架和切入點，以及重新評估全球投資組合風險的途徑。

At BlackRock, we never pause. We've used this period of investor portfolio redesign to stay close to our clients. We're providing insights, advice and solutions to help clients prepare to deploy assets following greater certainty on markets, terminal rates and the shape of the yield curve.

在貝萊德，我們從未停歇。我們利用這段時期的投資者投資組合重新設計來與客戶保持密切聯繫。我們提供見解、建議和解決方案，幫助客戶在市場、終端利率和殖利率曲線形狀更確定的情況下準備部署資產。

Clients entrusted BlackRock with $193 billion of total net inflows in the first 9 months of 2023, representing 3% annualized organic asset growth. While our clients' decisions to take advantage of safe haven cash as they redesign portfolios are reflected in our third quarter flows, clients are actively engaging to do more with BlackRock. We believe the long-term trend of clients consolidating business with fewer managers will be accelerated as a result of this period.

2023年前9個月，客戶委託貝萊德的淨流入總額為1,930億美元，相當於年化有機資產成長3%。雖然我們的客戶在重新設計投資組合時利用避險現金的決定反映在我們的第三季流量中，但客戶正在積極參與貝萊德的更多工作。我們相信，這段時期客戶以更少的管理階層整合業務的長期趨勢將會加速。

Third quarter gross fund sales were 95% of average levels over the last 12 months, and flows would have been meaningfully positive, excluding a $19 billion single client index redemption and $13 billion of market-related precision ETF net outflows. So client momentum remains strong.

第三季基金銷售總額為過去 12 個月平均值的 95%，不包括 190 億美元的單一客戶指數贖回和 130 億美元的市場相關精準 ETF 淨流出，流量將顯著為正。因此，客戶動力依然強勁。

Today, we manage $9.1 trillion in assets for our clients. These units of trust are $1.1 trillion higher than a year ago. Revenues 5% higher, operating income is up 7% and earnings per share increased 14% over this time period. Powering these numbers are clients increasing use of BlackRock as a platform and staying within our ecosystem of capabilities, combining investment, technology and portfolio servicing to meet their specific business needs.

如今，我們為客戶管理 9.1 兆美元的資產。這些信託單位比一年前增加了 1.1 兆美元。在此期間，收入成長 5%，營業收入成長 7%，每股收益成長 14%。這些數字的推動者是客戶越來越多地使用貝萊德作為平台，並留在我們的功能生態系統中，將投資、技術和投資組合服務結合起來，以滿足他們的特定業務需求。

This platform approach is driving our industry-leading organic growth over the long term. Market fluctuations and client risk appetite may temporarily lift or lower our AUM and revenues, but our focus remains on delivering BlackRock's platform to clients through access to unique opportunities, expertise and world-class client service.

從長遠來看，這種平台方法正在推動我們行業領先的有機成長。市場波動和客戶風險偏好可能會暫時提高或降低我們的資產管理規模和收入，但我們的重點仍然是透過獲得獨特的機會、專業知識和世界一流的客戶服務向客戶提供貝萊德的平台。

Our strategy is working. Clients are choosing to build bigger relationships with BlackRock. We've grown our asset base over the long term with over $1 trillion of net inflows since the start of 2021 and over $300 billion of that in just the last 12 months.

我們的策略正在發揮作用。客戶選擇與貝萊德建立更廣泛的關係。從長遠來看，我們的資產基礎不斷擴大，自 2021 年初以來淨流入超過 1 兆美元，其中僅在過去 12 個月就淨流入超過 3,000 億美元。

We know our shareholders and clients have high expectations of BlackRock. We believe in our 5% organic base fee growth target over the long term, and we challenge ourselves to envision what it takes to rise above that target. We've said before that we don't strive to be the fastest grower in any given quarter, but we continue to drive durable, consistent organic growth well above our peer group over the long term.

我們知道我們的股東和客戶對貝萊德抱有很高的期望。從長遠來看，我們相信 5% 的有機基本費用成長目標，並且我們挑戰自己，想像如何超越這個目標。我們之前說過，我們並不努力成為任何特定季度成長最快的企業，但從長遠來看，我們將繼續推動遠高於同業的持久、持續的有機成長。

Third quarter total net inflows were $3 billion and included $49 billion of lower fee institutional index equity redemptions driven by client-specific index allocation changes. Institutional index equity represents less than 3% of BlackRock's total base fees. These lower fee strategies are often only a portion of our clients' overall relationships with BlackRock. For example, results included in the $19 billion redemption from a single client, but the client is working with us to extend its mandates and active strategies.

第三季淨流入總額為 30 億美元，其中包括由客戶特定指數分配變化推動的 490 億美元較低費用的機構指數股票贖回。機構指數股權佔貝萊德基本費用總額的比例不到 3%。這些較低費用策略通常只是我們客戶與貝萊德整體關係的一部分。例如，結果包含在單一客戶 190 億美元的贖回中，但該客戶正在與我們合作擴展其任務和積極的策略。

Total quarterly annualized organic base fee decay of 2% reflected net outflows from higher fee precision ETFs and redemptions in active equity and retail liquid alternatives offerings. Third quarter revenue of $4.5 billion was 5% higher year-over-year, driven by organic growth, the impact of market and foreign exchange movements over the last 12 months on average AUM, and higher technology services revenue.

季度年化基本費用總額下降 2%，反映出費用精度更高的 ETF 以及主動股票和零售流動性另類產品的贖回帶來的淨流出。第三季營收為 45 億美元，年增 5%，這得益於有機成長、過去 12 個月市場和外匯變動對平均 AUM 的影響以及更高的技術服務收入。

Operating income of $1.7 billion was up 7% year-over-year. Earnings per share of $10.91 increased 14%, also reflecting a lower effective tax rate, partially offset by lower nonoperating income compared to a year ago.

營業收入為 17 億美元，年增 7%。每股收益為 10.91 美元，成長 14%，這也反映出有效稅率的降低，但與去年同期相比，非營業收入的下降部分抵消了這一影響。

Our as-adjusted tax rate for the third quarter was approximately 12%, reflecting $215 million of discrete tax benefits associated with the resolution of certain outstanding tax matters. We continue to estimate that 25% is a reasonable projected tax run rate for the remainder of 2023. The actual effective tax rate may differ because of nonrecurring or discrete items or potential changes in tax legislation.

我們第三季調整後的稅率約為 12%，反映出與解決某些未決稅務問題相關的 2.15 億美元的離散稅收優惠。我們繼續估計 25% 是 2023 年剩餘時間的合理預計稅率。實際有效稅率可能會因非經常性或離散項目或稅收立法的潛在變化而有所不同。

Nonoperating results for the quarter included $127 million of net investment gains, driven primarily by noncash mark-to-market gains in the value of our private equity co-investment portfolio. Third quarter base fee and securities lending revenue of $3.7 billion increased 4% year-over-year, reflecting the positive impact of market beta and foreign exchange movements on average AUM, positive organic base fee growth and higher securities lending revenue.

本季的非經營業績包括 1.27 億美元的淨投資收益，這主要是由我們私募股權共同投資組合價值的非現金以市價收益推動的。第三季基本費用和融券收入為 37 億美元，年增 4%，反映出市場貝塔係數和外匯變動對平均資產管理規模的正面影響、積極的有機基本費用成長和更高的融券收入。

Sequentially, base fee and securities lending revenue was up 2%. On an equivalent day count basis, our annualized effective fee rate was approximately 0.2 of 1 basis point lower compared to the second quarter. This was due to lower securities lending revenue, underperformance of non-U.S. equity markets and changing client risk preferences favoring risk of lower fee exposures.

隨後，基本費用和證券借貸收入增加了 2%。以同等天數計算，我們的年化有效費用率比第二季低約 0.2 個基點或 1 個基點。這是由於證券借貸收入下降、非美國股票市場表現不佳以及客戶風險偏好的變化有利於降低費用風險。

As a result of continued global equity and bond market depreciation toward the end of the third quarter, including the impact of FX-related dollar appreciation, we entered the fourth quarter with an estimated base fee run rate approximately 3% lower than our total base fees for the third quarter. Performance fees of $70 million decreased from a year ago, primarily reflecting lower revenue from liquid alternatives.

由於第三季末全球股票和債券市場持續貶值，包括與外匯相關的美元升值的影響，我們進入第四季時，估計基本費用運行率比我們的總基本費用低約 3%第三季。績效費用比一年前減少了 7000 萬美元，主要反映了流動性替代品的收入下降。

Quarterly technology services revenue was up 20% compared to a year ago, driven by sustained demand for our technology offerings. Current quarter technology services revenue also benefited from the impact of several large client renewals of their eFront on-premises licenses, for which accounting treatment recognizes a majority of the revenue at time of renewal. Approximately half of the year-over-year technology services revenue increase resulted from these eFront contract renewals.

在對我們技術產品的持續需求的推動下，季度技術服務收入比去年同期成長了 20%。本季的技術服務收入也受益於幾個大客戶續訂其 eFront 本地授權的影響，其中會計處理在續約時確認了大部分收入。大約一半的技術服務收入年增來自於這些 eFront 合約續約。

Annual contract value, or ACV, increased 10% year-over-year. We remain committed to low- to mid-teens ACV growth over the long term, driven by demand for Aladdin's broadening technology capabilities and the growing value proposition it presents for clients.

年度合約價值 (ACV) 年成長 10%。在對 Aladdin 不斷擴大的技術能力的需求及其為客戶提供的不斷增長的價值主張的推動下，我們仍然致力於 ACV 的長期成長。

Total expense was 4% higher year-over-year. Higher compensation and direct fund expenses were partially offset by lower distribution and servicing costs and G&A. At present, we expect full year 2023 core G&A to fall on the low end of our previously communicated guidance of a mid- to high-single-digit percentage increase. In line with this outlook, we would also expect fourth quarter core G&A to reflect seasonal increases in marketing spend and execution of planned technology investment spend.

總費用較去年同期增加 4%。較高的薪酬和直接基金費用被較低的分銷和服務成本以及一般管理費用部分抵消。目前，我們預計 2023 年全年核心 G&A 將落在我們先前傳達的中高個位數百分比成長指引的低端。根據這一前景，我們也預期第四季度核心一般管理費用將反映行銷支出和規劃技術投資支出執行的季節性成長。

Our third quarter as-adjusted operating margin of 42.3% was up 30 basis points from a year ago, benefiting in part from the favorable impact of market movements on quarterly revenue over the last year. Our platform strategy has delivered scale and operating leverage through time, and we aim to be disciplined in driving profitable growth. We're prioritizing investments to propel our differentiated organic growth and drive operating leverage. We'll look to find more opportunities to variabilize expenses, generate fixed cost scale through technology and automation, and align investment spend with organic revenue growth potential.

我們第三季調整後營業利潤率為 42.3%，比去年同期成長 30 個基點，部分受惠於去年市場走勢對季度營收的有利影響。隨著時間的推移，我們的平台策略已經實現了規模和營運槓桿，我們的目標是嚴格推動獲利成長。我們優先考慮投資以推動我們差異化的有機成長並提高營運槓桿。我們將尋找更多機會來改變支出，透過技術和自動化產生固定成本規模，並使投資支出與有機收入成長潛力保持一致。

Our capital management strategy remains consistent. We invest first either to scale strategic growth initiatives or drive operational efficiency and then return excess cash to our shareholders through a combination of dividends and share repurchases.

我們的資本管理策略保持一致。我們首先進行投資以擴大策略性成長計畫或提高營運效率，然後透過股利和股票回購相結合的方式將多餘現金回饋給股東。

During the third quarter, we closed our acquisition of Kreos Capital, adding venture debt capabilities to our credit and private markets franchises. And earlier this week, we announced the minority investment as part of a strategic partnership with Upvest. Our M&A focus is on extending our capabilities in technology in private markets, tapping into revenue pools of adjacent industries and building scale.

第三季度，我們完成了對 Kreos Capital 的收購，為我們的信貸和私募市場特許經營權增加了風險債務能力。本週早些時候，我們宣布了少數股權投資，作為與 Upvest 策略合作夥伴關係的一部分。我們的併購重點是擴大我們在私人市場的技術能力，利用鄰近產業的收入池並擴大規模。

We repurchased $375 million worth of common shares in the third quarter. At present, based on our capital spending plans for the year and subject to market conditions, we still anticipate repurchasing at least $375 million of shares in the fourth quarter, consistent with our previous guidance in January.

我們在第三季回購了價值 3.75 億美元的普通股。目前，根據我們今年的資本支出計劃並根據市場情況，我們仍預計第四季度將回購至少 3.75 億美元的股票，這與我們 1 月份的指引一致。

BlackRock had $3 billion of total net inflows in the third quarter, which were impacted by $49 billion of low-fee institutional index equity redemptions. BlackRock was not immune to an overall slowing of investor activity, but we once again outperformed in what has been a challenging industry environment.

貝萊德第三季淨流入總額為 30 億美元，受到 490 億美元低費用機構指數股票贖回的影響。貝萊德也未能倖免於投資人活動整體放緩的影響，但我們在充滿挑戰的產業環境中再次表現出色。

Momentum in our ETF business continued with $29 billion of net inflows in the third quarter, led by core equity and fixed income ETF net inflows of $34 billion and $12 billion, respectively. Overall ETF flows were impacted by redemptions concentrated in certain market-driven precision and fixed income products.

我們的 ETF 業務持續保持成長勢頭，第三季淨流入 290 億美元，其中核心股票和固定收益 ETF 淨流入分別為 340 億美元和 120 億美元。整體 ETF 流量受到集中於某些市場驅動的精準和固定收益產品的贖回的影響。

The fourth quarter has historically been the strongest quarter of ETF flows for BlackRock when we've seen, on average, 35% of our annual ETF net inflows. BlackRock typically has been a large beneficiary of ETF industry seasonality related to year-end rebalancing and tax planning. In line with these historical results, we'd expect to see an acceleration in iShares ETF flows as we get closer to the end of 2023.

史上第四季是貝萊德 ETF 流量最強勁的季度，平均年度 ETF 淨流入量為 35%。貝萊德通常是與年終再平衡和稅務規劃相關的 ETF 行業季節性的主要受益者。根據這些歷史結果，隨著 2023 年底的臨近，我們預期 iShares ETF 流量將會加速。

With safe haven cash providing positive returns, retail net outflows of $4 billion primarily reflected industry pressure in active equities and liquid alternatives, partially offset by continued strength in SMAs through Aperio. Institutional index net outflows of $36 billion reflected the previously mentioned low-fee index equity redemptions.

由於避險現金提供正回報，零售淨流出 40 億美元主要反映了活躍股票和流動性另類投資的產業壓力，部分被 Aperio 的 SMA 持續走強所抵消。機構指數淨流出 360 億美元反映了前面提到的低費用指數股票贖回。

Our institutional active franchise experienced $1 billion of net outflows, primarily from active fixed income, which was impacted by a handful of client-specific partial redemptions, including reinsurance activity. These outflows were partially offset by continued demand for our target date, illiquid alternatives and outsourcing capabilities. We've built our private markets capabilities across multiple years, and we continue to see strong demand for our illiquid alternative strategies. We generated nearly $3 billion of net inflows in the third quarter, driven by infrastructure and private credit.

我們的機構主動特許經營經歷了 10 億美元的淨流出，主要來自主動固定收益，這受到少數特定客戶部分贖回（包括再保險活動）的影響。這些資金外流被對我們的目標日期、非流動性替代品和外包能力的持續需求所部分抵消。多年來，我們已經建立了私募市場能力，並且我們繼續看到對我們的非流動性另類策略的強勁需求。在基礎設施和私人信貸的推動下，第三季我們產生了近 30 億美元的淨流入。

We're only seeing bigger and better private markets opportunities for BlackRock and for our clients. BlackRock's relationships across the world drive our differentiated deal flow. Deal flow, alongside great teams with great tech and great data, mean we can deliver differentiated investment performance and grow vintage over vintage.

我們只看到貝萊德和我們的客戶有更大、更好的私人市場機會。貝萊德在世界各地的關係推動了我們差異化的交易流程。交易流程以及擁有先進技術和數據的優秀團隊意味著我們可以提供差異化的投資績效並不斷成長。

We're investing as we scale our private markets platform by using our financial strength to bridge successor funds, facilitate growing co-investments activity and seeding new fund launches. These investments can unlock future revenue and earnings potential for our shareholders.

我們在擴大私募市場平台的同時進行投資，利用我們的財務實力為後續基金架起橋樑，促進共同投資活動的成長並推動新基金的推出。這些投資可以為我們的股東釋放未來的收入和獲利潛力。

Finally, cash management net inflows were $15 billion in the quarter. Money market funds returned to earning yields not seen in nearly 2 decades. We're leveraging our scale and integrated cash offerings to engage with clients who are using cash not only to manage liquidity, but also to earn attractive returns.

最後，本季現金管理淨流入為 150 億美元。貨幣市場基金的收益率恢復到近20年來的最高水準。我們正在利用我們的規模和綜合現金產品來與使用現金不僅管理流動性而且賺取有吸引力回報的客戶進行互動。

The current macro environment is causing some clients to pause, slowing overall activity in the asset management industry. Nevertheless, BlackRock has delivered positive organic asset and base fee growth over the last 12 months. We see significant opportunity to deepen relationships and consolidate our share with clients as they resume actively allocating assets. We're staying connected with our clients and positioning for what we believe can be massive growth unlocks.

當前的宏觀環境導致一些客戶暫停，從而減緩了資產管理行業的整體活動。儘管如此，貝萊德在過去 12 個月中實現了積極的有機資產和基本費用成長。隨著客戶恢復積極配置資產，我們看到了加深與客戶關係並鞏固我們份額的重大機會。我們與客戶保持聯繫，並為我們認為可以實現大規模成長的目標做好準備。

Looking ahead, we believe our platform strategy will continue to deliver for both our clients and shareholders, resulting in sustained market-leading organic growth, differentiated operating leverage and earnings in multiple expansion over time.

展望未來，我們相信我們的平台策略將繼續為我們的客戶和股東提供服務，從而實現持續的市場領先的有機成長、差異化的營運槓桿以及隨著時間的推移實現倍數擴張的收益。

With that, I'll turn it over to Larry.

有了這個，我會把它交給拉里。

Thank you, Martin. Good morning, and thank you all for joining the call. I'd like to begin saying that our thoughts are with everyone who has friends, family or loved ones impacted by terrorist acts in Israel. The violence and the loss of innocent lives has been shocking and truly heartbreaking. We at BlackRock will continue to do everything we can to support our colleagues and all our clients in the region.

謝謝你，馬丁。早安，感謝大家加入通話。首先我想說的是，我們的心與每一個受到以色列恐怖主義行為影響的朋友、家人或親人同在。暴力和無辜生命的喪失令人震驚且令人心碎。貝萊德將繼續竭盡全力支持我們的同事和該地區的所有客戶。

Turning to our results. Clients have always been at the center of BlackRock's growth strategy. I believe that BlackRock is better positioned today than ever before to help our clients achieve the long-term outcomes they need. We are having comprehensive conversations with clients globally on how we can partner with them to navigate on a new market regime and capitalize on investment opportunities.

轉向我們的結果。客戶始終是貝萊德成長策略的核心。我相信貝萊德如今比以往任何時候都更有能力幫助我們的客戶實現他們所需的長期成果。我們正在與全球客戶進行全面對話，討論如何與他們合作，駕馭新的市場體制並利用投資機會。

BlackRock is uniquely positioned in this environment to serve our clients with an integrated advisory, investment management and technology expertise, something no other asset manager can provide. Sustained organic growth with end market appreciation has led to a $1.1 trillion increase in BlackRock's AUM, alongside margin improvement and 14% growth in earnings per share over the last 12 months. Clients have entrusted us with over $300 billion in net inflows over the same time period.

貝萊德在這種環境中處於獨特的地位，可以為我們的客戶提供全面諮詢、投資管理和技術專業知識，這是其他資產管理公司無法提供的。持續的有機成長和終端市場的升值導致貝萊德的資產管理規模增加了 1.1 兆美元，同時利潤率有所改善，過去 12 個月每股收益成長了 14%。客戶委託我們同期淨流入超過 3,000 億美元。

Technology service revenues increased 20% year-over-year, reflecting sustained demand for Aladdin and eFront renewals from several large clients. We remain committed to delivering differentiated organic growth and margin. We've invested ahead of major opportunities for BlackRock in private markets, technology and whole portfolio solutions. Through disciplined execution, we aim to both grow client assets and drive profitable growth, unleashing financial success for our clients alongside revenue and earnings power for our shareholders.

技術服務收入年增 20%，反映出多個大客戶對 Aladdin 和 eFront 續訂的持續需求。我們仍然致力於提供差異化的有機成長和利潤。我們在貝萊德在私募市場、技術和整體投資組合解決方案方面的重大機會之前進行了投資。透過嚴格的執行，我們的目標是增加客戶資產並推動獲利成長，為客戶帶來財務成功，同時為股東帶來收入和獲利能力。

Structural and secular changes in business models, technology and, most of all, monetary and fiscal policy have made the last 2 years extremely challenging for traditional asset management. With the majority of industry players seeing outflows, BlackRock's differentiated business model has enabled us to grow consistently with our clients and maintain positive organic base fee growth since 2022.

商業模式、技術以及最重要的貨幣和財政政策的結構性和長期變化使得過去兩年對傳統資產管理來說極具挑戰性。在大多數行業參與者出現資金外流的情況下，貝萊德的差異化業務模式使我們能夠與客戶共同成長，並自 2022 年以來保持積極的有機基本費用成長。

Investors face continued uncertainty. The S&P saw its best start through July in 26 years, but retreated in August and September. Central banks are being forced to keep policies tight as they lean against inflationary pressures. 2- and 10-year treasuries climbed to 16-year highs as investors anticipated rates remaining higher for longer. Rapid advancements in technology and artificial intelligence, the rewiring of globalization, the transition to a low-carbon economy, aging populations and a fast-evolving financial system were all macro trends clients are evaluating.

投資者面臨持續的不確定性。標準普爾指數在 7 月創下了 26 年來的最佳開局，但在 8 月和 9 月出現回落。各國央行在應對通膨壓力時被迫保持緊縮政策。由於投資者預期利率將在更長時間內維持在較高水平，2 年期和 10 年期公債攀升至 16 年高點。科技和人工智慧的快速進步、全球化的重新佈線、向低碳經濟的轉型、人口老化和快速發展的金融體係都是客戶正在評估的宏觀趨勢。

As market dynamics shift and uncertainty increases, clients are pausing to think about the future, assessing their options and seeking out BlackRock to take action. BlackRock's quarterly net inflows were not immune to an overall industry slowdown, as Martin discussed. Of course, I'm disappointed when we have softer flow quarters, but the long-term trend of clients consolidating more of their portfolio with BlackRock is only accelerating.

隨著市場動態的變化和不確定性的增加，客戶開始停下來思考未來，評估他們的選擇並尋求貝萊德採取行動。正如馬丁所討論的那樣，貝萊德的季度淨流入未能免受整體行業放緩的影響。當然，當我們的流量季度疲軟時，我感到失望，但客戶將更多投資組合與貝萊德整合的長期趨勢只會加速。

Rate hikes over the past 1.5 years, the fastest in the U.S. since the early 1980s, have made cash not just a safe place, but now a very profitable place for investors to wait for the time being. In short, investors are being paid to wait, something we haven't seen to this degree in years. Investors can earn 5% to 7% from conservative cash and bond portfolios. This dynamic reduces the near-term incentive to implement portfolio changes, resulting in temporarily slower client activity inflows. The degree to which investors have hunkered down in cash is shown by nearly $7 trillion in money market funds AUM across the industry.

過去 1.5 年的升息速度是美國自 20 世紀 80 年代初以來最快的一次，這使得現金不僅成為一個安全的地方，而且現在成為投資者暫時等待的一個非常有利可圖的地方。簡而言之，投資者正在等待等待，這是我們多年來從未見過的這種程度。投資者可以從保守的現金和債券投資組合中賺取 5% 至 7% 的收益。這種動態降低了實施投資組合變更的短期動力，導致客戶活動流入暫時放緩。整個產業近 7 兆美元的貨幣市場基金資產管理規模顯示了投資者持有現金的程度。

Investors will eventually put that money to work. We've seen this dynamic before as recently as 2016 and 2018 when policy uncertainty and ability to earn yields and cash resulted in temporarily slowing in activity. Through these times, BlackRock stayed connected with our clients, connected across our businesses. And what immediately followed those periods in the past were new records for BlackRock client flows and organic base fee growth at or above 5% target.

投資者最終會把這筆錢投入工作。我們早在 2016 年和 2018 年就曾見過這種動態，當時政策的不確定性以及賺取收益率和現金的能力導致經濟活動暫時放緩。在這段時間裡，貝萊德與我們的客戶以及我們的各個業務保持聯繫。緊隨過去這些時期的是貝萊德客戶流量和有機基本費用增長達到或超過 5% 目標的新紀錄。

We expect that investors will begin redeploying assets once there's a conviction in a terminal rate and the shape of the yield curve. We see that effect play out in prior cycles, most recently following the Fed pause in 2019 when flows rebounded, particularly in fixed income.

我們預計，一旦確定了最終利率和殖利率曲線的形狀，投資者將開始重新部署資產。我們看到這種效應在先前的周期中顯現出來，最近一次是在 2019 年聯準會暫停政策之後，資金流量反彈，特別是在固定收益領域。

BlackRock's integrated platform and deep long-standing relationships with clients position us to be a major beneficiary once flows return. We are the only asset manager delivering our Platform-as-a-Service. Clients entrust us with $9.1 trillion in assets, and we are serving them with excellence. We lead our industry in delivering accessibility, affordability and innovation.

貝萊德的綜合平台以及與客戶的深厚長期關係使我們成為資金回流後的主要受益者。我們是唯一一家提供平台即服務的資產管理公司。客戶將 9.1 兆美元的資產委託給我們，我們正在為他們提供卓越的服務。我們在提供可近性、可負擔性和創新方面處於行業領先地位。

Times of uncertainty are often when transformational opportunities emerge. Moments in our history like this have led to new ideas, led to new partnerships and acquisitions. BlackRock has a strong track record of successful transformational M&A. Most people think of BGI and MLIM when I say that. But I also think of acquisitions like eFront and Aperio. They have been smaller in size, but were also transformational in their own way. In both, we anticipated and delivered on our clients' needs. We scaled strong existing technologies and built new revenue streams for our shareholders.

充滿不確定性的時期往往是轉型機會出現的時候。我們歷史上的這樣的時刻催生了新的想法、新的合作夥伴關係和收購。貝萊德在轉型併購方面擁有良好的成功記錄。當我這麼說時，大多數人都會想到 BGI 和 MLIM。但我也想到了 eFront 和 Aperio 等收購。它們的規模較小，但也以自己的方式進行變革。在這兩種情況下，我們都預測並滿足了客戶的需求。我們擴展了強大的現有技術，並為股東創造了新的收入來源。

Organic growth in Aperio has been over 20% since our acquisition, and eFront revenues have grown nearly 50% while also strengthening our value proposition and positioning in Aladdin and private markets. BlackRock has been a successful acquirer. And today, advancements in tech and AI, scaling our private markets and more attractive valuations means BlackRock is once again becoming increasingly engaged in M&A trend discussions.

自我們收購以來，Aperio 的有機成長已超過 20%，eFront 營收成長了近 50%，同時也加強了我們在 Aladdin 和私人市場的價值主張和定位。貝萊德是一家成功的收購者。如今，技術和人工智慧的進步、私募市場的規模擴大以及更具吸引力的估值意味著貝萊德再次越來越多地參與併購趨勢討論。

What made our acquisition so successful was we're enduring to diffuse the best of the acquired companies into a stronger and faster growing one, BlackRock, fully connecting all parts of the firm to our clients. We have a proven history of realizing long-term benefits in areas of expansion. Today, we're similarly connecting with our partners across markets to lay the groundwork for future growth.

我們的收購之所以如此成功，是因為我們堅持不懈地將所收購公司中最好的公司分散到一家更強大、發展更快的公司——貝萊德，將公司的所有部門與我們的客戶充分連接起來。我們擁有在擴張領域實現長期利益的良好歷史。今天，我們同樣與各市場的合作夥伴建立聯繫，為未來的成長奠定基礎。

In July, we announced an agreement to form Jio BlackRock, a 50-50 joint venture with Jio Financial Services, an entity carved out of our alliance industries. India has been an integral part of the global platform, and BlackRock is one of the largest international investors in India today. And almost 15% of our colleagues are located across multiple offices in the country.

7 月，我們宣布達成協議，與 Jio Financial Services（從我們的聯盟產業分離出來的實體）組成一個 50:50 合資企業 Jio BlackRock。印度一直是全球平台不可或缺的一部分，貝萊德是當今印度最大的國際投資者之一。我們近 15% 的同事分佈在該國的多個辦事處。

India offers enormous opportunities. Jio BlackRock represents a powerful new partnership in a fast-growing market where we see the potential to revolutionize India's asset management industry. We look forward to expanding our footprint with the ambition to improve the financial futures for millions of investors in India.

印度提供了巨大的機會。 Jio BlackRock 代表了快速成長市場中強大的新合作夥伴關係，我們看到了徹底改變印度資產管理產業的潛力。我們期待擴大我們的足跡，致力於改善印度數百萬投資者的金融未來。

BlackRock is working in India and markets around the world to lower the barriers to investing through accessible, affordable and transparent solutions. Another example of the new growth opportunities is our partnership and agreement we announced last month for BlackRock to be the asset manager partner of Monzo. Monzo is the U.K.'s leading digital bank, and we are launching a new investment offering for their 8 million customers. Since launch, more than 250,000 Monzo clients have joined the waiting list for this new offering.

貝萊德正在印度和世界各地的市場開展工作，透過方便、負擔得起和透明的解決方案降低投資障礙。新成長機會的另一個例子是我們上個月宣布的合作夥伴關係和協議，貝萊德將成為 Monzo 的資產管理合作夥伴。 Monzo 是英國領先的數位銀行，我們正在為其 800 萬客戶推出新的投資產品。自推出以來，已有超過 25 萬名 Monzo 客戶加入了這項新產品的等待名單。

And just earlier this week, we announced our partnership with Upvest to drive innovation in how Europeans access markets and make it cheaper and simpler to start investing. What we have seen in the markets -- aftermarkets is that we can make investing easier and more affordable, and we could quickly attract new clients.

就在本週早些時候，我們宣布與 Upvest 合作，推動歐洲人進入市場方式的創新，並使開始投資變得更便宜、更簡單。我們在市場-售後市場看到的是，我們可以讓投資變得更容易、更實惠，並且我們可以快速吸引新客戶。

For first-time investors, the preferred way of investing is often through ETFs and specifically iShares. Through investment and innovation, we have evolved our iShares ETF franchise to meaningfully increase access to global markets. This includes access for tens of millions of new investors. It also includes access for our most seasoned clients to use our ETF technology to actively allocate across all types of markets. BlackRock's ETF platform delivers industry-leading performance, choice and scale. With growing use cases, diversification and customization, ETFs and indexes are often an increasingly and important component of active management.

對於首次投資者來說，首選的投資方式通常是透過 ETF，特別是 iShares。透過投資和創新，我們發展了 iShares ETF 特許經營權，以有意義地增加進入全球市場的機會。這包括數千萬新投資者的參與。它還包括讓我們經驗最豐富的客戶使用我們的 ETF 技術在所有類型的市場中積極進行配置。貝萊德的 ETF 平台提供業界領先的性能、選擇和規模。隨著用例的不斷增長、多樣化和客製化，ETF 和指數往往成為主動管理中日益重要的組成部分。

Across our ETF, BlackRock generated net inflows of $29 billion in the third quarter and nearly $100 billion year-to-date. Flows in core equity and fixed ETFs were partially offset by redemptions in precision ETFs in August and September, something we expect and have seen before in risk-off environments as clients use our ETF to actively manage their portfolios. These tactical allocation tools are unique to BlackRock and they are -- high utilization reinforces the value proposition associated with iShares strong secondary market liquidity, its unique options and lending markets.

在我們的 ETF 中，貝萊德第三季產生了 290 億美元的淨流入，今年迄今則產生了近 1,000 億美元的淨流入。 8 月和9 月，核心股票和固定ETF 的流量被精準ETF 的贖回部分抵消，這是我們預期的，並且在客戶使用我們的ETF 積極管理其投資組合時在避險環境中也已經看到了這一點。這些戰術配置工具是貝萊德獨有的，高利用率強化了與 iShares 強大的二級市場流動性、獨特的選擇權和貸款市場相關的價值主張。

BlackRock's market-driven, long-duration, fixed-income product were also an important tool for investors to rotate at a longer-duration positions. The breadth of our ETF platform enables us to capture changes in client demand, keeping investors within BlackRock. For example, iShares treasury funds were 3 of the top 5 grossing bond ETFs in the industry as investors shifted duration preferences in the quarter.

貝萊德以市場為導向的長期固定收益產品也是投資人輪換長期部位的重要工具。我們的 ETF 平台的廣度使我們能夠捕捉客戶需求的變化，從而將投資者留在貝萊德。例如，隨著投資人在本季改變久期偏好，iShares 國庫基金成為業界收入最高的 5 隻債券 ETF 的 3 隻。

Our market-leading levels of performance and liquidity helped our clients nimbly reposition as market conditions evolved. As we approach peak interest rates, we expect the resurgence in fixed income flows with clients capitalizing on higher yields. BlackRock is well positioned to benefit for this reallocation with our comprehensive $2.6 trillion fixed income platform.

我們市場領先的業績和流動性水準幫助我們的客戶隨著市場狀況的變化靈活地重新定位。隨著利率接近峰值，我們預期固定收益流將復甦，客戶將受益於更高的收益率。貝萊德憑藉我們 2.6 兆美元的綜合固定收益平台，已做好充分準備從此次重新分配中受益。

Going back to the period immediately following the taper tantrum in 2013 or the Fed pause in early 2019, the industry saw a quick rebound in fixed income flows following rate stability. Both BlackRock ETFs and our active fixed income funds were large beneficiaries at that time.

回到 2013 年縮減恐慌或 2019 年初聯準會暫停後的時期，該產業看到利率穩定後固定收益流量迅速反彈。貝萊德 ETF 和我們的主動式固定收益基金都是當時的大受益者。

Our conversations with clients aren't about just active and just index. We work with clients to understand their investment challenges, helping them shape and execute strategic portfolio construction decisions. BlackRock is the only asset manager that can deliver outcomes in the context of clients' whole portfolios across market classes, asset classes, investment styles and in public and in private markets.

我們與客戶的對話不僅涉及主動和指數。我們與客戶合作，了解他們的投資挑戰，幫助他們制定和執行策略性投資組合建立決策。貝萊德是唯一一家能夠在跨市場類別、資產類別、投資風格以及公共和私人市場的客戶整個投資組合中提供成果的資產管理公司。

Organizations are turning to the private markets with greater frequency for their capital and financing needs, leading to bigger and better investment opportunities for BlackRock and our clients. BlackRock's worldwide network of relationships with corporations and governments, sourcing capabilities and a rigorous selection process helps us deliver unique solutions and drive performance for our clients across private market asset classes.

各組織越來越頻繁地轉向私募市場來滿足其資本和融資需求，從而為貝萊德和我們的客戶帶來更大、更好的投資機會。貝萊德與企業和政府的全球關係網絡、採購能力和嚴格的選擇流程幫助我們提供獨特的解決方案並為私募市場資產類別的客戶提高績效。

In the third quarter, we announced that BlackRock is partnering with the New Zealand government to launch an over $1 billion climate infrastructure strategy. BlackRock's Decarbonization Partners joint venture also reached $1 billion in committed capital for its first round and has now invested in 5 portfolio companies. These initiatives are a real example of BlackRock's long-standing relationship with clients and how we deliver the entirety of our platform to pioneer solutions and meet our clients' evolving needs.

第三季度，我們宣布貝萊德將與紐西蘭政府合作推出超過 10 億美元的氣候基礎設施策略。貝萊德 (BlackRock) 的 Decarbonization Partners 合資企業第一輪承諾資本也達到 10 億美元，目前已投資 5 家投資組合公司。這些舉措是貝萊德與客戶長期合作關係的真實例子，也是我們如何提供整個平台來開發解決方案並滿足客戶不斷變化的需求的真實例子。

We're also effectively scaling successor funds in private markets, delivering larger funds through raises of subsequent fund vintages. For example, we're on the 10th vintage of our flagship U.S. private lending fund. And we're in the market with a fourth vintage of our global diversified infrastructure equity fund series. Infra IV already raised $4.5 billion in initial investor commitments at close -- at the first close last year, achieving over half its targeted size. This is the next phase of successful scaling of the franchise. In 2020, our third fund in the series raised a total of $5 billion, surpassing the total assets of vintages 1 and 2 combined.

我們也有效地擴大了私募市場的後續基金規模，透過籌集後續基金年份來提供更大的資金。例如，我們的旗艦美國私人貸款基金已經進入第十個年頭了。我們在市場上推出了全球多元化基礎設施股票基金系列的第四個版本。去年首次交割時，Infra IV 已在初始投資者承諾中籌集了 45 億美元，實現了目標規模的一半以上。這是成功擴大特許經營規模的下一個階段。 2020 年，我們該系列中的第三隻基金籌集了總計 50 億美元的資金，超過了第一輪和第二輪基金的總資產總和。

Strong investment performance is critical to this momentum. Our flagship private equity fund currently stands at more than a 35% net IRR. We've seen double-digit net returns this year in our flagship private credit strategies. BlackRock's proprietary differentiated deal flow is what drives long-term investment performance and outcomes for clients.

強勁的投資表現對於這一勢頭至關重要。我們的旗艦私募股權基金目前的淨 IRR 超過 35%。今年，我們的旗艦私人信貸策略實現了兩位數的淨回報。貝萊德專有的差異化交易流程推動了客戶的長期投資績效和成果。

BlackRock's global network of relationships, data and analytics and flexible, adaptable capital means we get sourced unique deals for our clients, and we are increasingly finding that opportunity seek us as much as we seek opportunities. Companies want BlackRock as an investor and a partner, recognizes the uniqueness of our global reach, our brand and our expertise across markets and industries.

貝萊德的全球關係網絡、數據和分析以及靈活、適應性強的資本意味著我們能夠為客戶找到獨特的交易，我們越來越發現機會在尋找我們，就像我們在尋找機會一樣。公司希望貝萊德成為投資者和合作夥伴，認可我們的全球影響力、我們的品牌以及我們在市場和行業中的專業知識的獨特性。

Our growing profile from investments around the world in the U.S. and Europe and Asia is leading to more and larger deal opportunities. BlackRock's global relationships and expertise in sourcing and underwriting portfolio and risk management and technology and analytics allow us to unlock unique deals for clients. At the same time, our growing momentum in private markets is delivering value for our shareholders through organic growth and less beta-sensitive revenues.

我們在美國、歐洲和亞洲的全球投資中不斷增長的知名度正在帶來更多、更大的交易機會。貝萊德在採購和承銷投資組合、風險管理以及技術和分析方面的全球關係和專業知識使我們能夠為客戶解鎖獨特的交易。同時，我們在私募市場的成長動能正在透過有機成長和對貝塔敏感度較低的收入為我們的股東創造價值。

Years ago, we anticipated how clients would benefit from alternative investments being evaluated inside a portfolio level of risk management framework. This led to the combination of eFront and Aladdin, which has set a new standard in investment and risk management technology.

多年前，我們就預期客戶將如何從在風險管理框架的投資組合層面進行評估的另類投資中受益。這促成了 eFront 和 Aladdin 的結合，為投資和風險管理技術樹立了新標準。

The acquisition of eFront opened up a new segment of alternative GPs and asset services and, most importantly, enabled us to help clients across their whole portfolio. Our acquisition and integration of eFront continues to be transformational for clients. And we're seeing strong demand both as a stand-alone basis and for whole portfolio solutions across public and private assets.

收購 eFront 開闢了另類 GP 和資產服務的新領域，最重要的是，使我們能夠為客戶的整個投資組合提供協助。我們對 eFront 的收購和整合持續為客戶帶來改變。我們看到，無論是作為獨立基礎還是對公共和私人資產的整體投資組合解決方案的強勁需求。

We now have a data platform and business that covers 13,000 funds and over 150,000 assets, a significant portion of the private market fund universe. We're redefining the industry expectations of transparency in private markets. Nearly half of Aladdin's clients are leveraging our newer offerings, including eFront, which is a true competitive advantage in the tech market. And as Martin spoke to, you saw eFront's contribution reflecting in this quarter's tech results.

我們現在擁有一個數據平台和業務，涵蓋 13,000 只基金和超過 150,000 項資產，佔私募市場基金領域的很大一部分。我們正在重新定義產業對私募市場透明度的期望。 Aladdin 的近一半客戶正在利用我們的新產品，包括 eFront，這是科技市場上真正的競爭優勢。正如 Martin 所說，eFront 的貢獻反映在本季的技術表現中。

Investors and advisers are increasingly choosing a small number of scale technology platforms that offer everything in their ecosystem in one place. Aladdin worked seamlessly alongside other aspects of client investment processes and tech stack, serving as a foundation while enabling clients to create custom solutions to meet their specific needs. To get here, we also have developed deep integration with custodial banks with fund accountants, broker-dealers and other leading ecosystem partners. This flexibility and choice are just some of the reasons clients are entrusting us with the growing numbers of their portfolios.

投資者和顧問越來越多地選擇少量規模的技術平台，這些平台可以在一個地方提供其生態系統中的所有內容。阿拉丁與客戶投資流程和技術堆疊的其他方面無縫協作，作為基礎，同時使客戶能夠創建客製化解決方案來滿足其特定需求。為了實現這一目標，我們還與託管銀行、基金會計師、經紀交易商和其他領先的生態系統合作夥伴進行了深度整合。這種靈活性和選擇只是客戶將越來越多的投資組合委託給我們的部分原因。

Going forward, we are confident that clients will continue to turn to Aladdin to unify their investment management process. BlackRock's willingness to reimagine our business, our ambition to partner comprehensively with our clients and our drive to innovate ahead of their needs is translating into broader, into deeper relationships, and we see an incredible opportunity for us in front of us.

展望未來，我們相信客戶將繼續求助於阿拉丁來團結他們的投資管理流程。貝萊德願意重新構想我們的業務，我們與客戶全面合作的雄心，以及我們在客戶需求之前進行創新的動力，正在轉化為更廣泛、更深層次的關係，我們看到了擺在我們面前的難以置信的機會。

We remain intensely focused on staying close to our clients, especially during periods of market volatility and rising uncertainty. Clients are coming to us for advice, for solutions tailored to this macroeconomic environment, wanting to do more with BlackRock. Horizontal connectivity is critical. And our leadership team and an entire organization are coming together to differentiate ourselves in delivering for clients today and preparing to capture the money in motion we anticipate in the near future.

我們仍然高度重視與客戶保持密切聯繫，特別是在市場波動和不確定性上升時期。客戶向我們尋求建議，尋求適合當前宏觀經濟環境的解決方案，希望與貝萊德一起做更多事情。水平連接至關重要。我們的領導團隊和整個組織正在齊心協力，讓我們在為客戶提供服務方面脫穎而出，並準備在不久的將來捕捉我們預期的資金。

As I've always done, I'm challenging our teams to continue to innovate and stay perpetually neurotic about staying in front of our clients. BlackRock will continue to lead in creating more access and connections between long-term investors, capital markets and the real economy. I'm incredibly excited about the opportunities I see for our clients and especially for BlackRock, which will then lead especially for you, our stakeholders.

正如我一直以來所做的那樣，我要求我們的團隊繼續創新，並始終保持在客戶面前的神經質。貝萊德將繼續引領長期投資者、資本市場和實體經濟之間建立更多的准入和聯繫。我對我們的客戶，特別是貝萊德看到的機會感到非常興奮，這將特別為您，我們的利害關係人帶來機會。

Let us now open it up for questions.

現在讓我們開放提問。

(Operator Instructions) Your first question comes from Craig Siegenthaler with Bank of America.

（操作員說明）您的第一個問題來自美國銀行的 Craig Siegenthaler。

So my question is on the organic growth outlook. There were several low fee redemptions in the quarter. And also given that we're in year 3 of a bond bear market, your flows are arguably depressed versus a longer-term run rate. So how do you think about the forward organic growth trajectory and the potential money in motion? And specifically, do you expect to see a pickup in fixed income flows once the Fed is done raising, which could be very soon here?

所以我的問題是關於有機成長的前景。本季有幾次低費用贖回。而且考慮到我們正處於債券熊市的第三年，與長期運行利率相比，您的資金流動可以說是低迷的。那麼，您如何看待未來的有機成長軌跡和潛在的流動資金？具體來說，一旦聯準會完成升息（可能很快就會到來），您是否預計固定收益流量會回升？

Thanks, Craig. It's Martin. Let me just say a few things about organic growth and the outlook. So just last 12 months, we've delivered positive organic asset and revenue growth, $300 billion in flows over the last year, $193 billion year-to-date. We, as I mentioned, have conviction in our 5% base fee target over the long term. We've reached it on average over the last 5 years and met or exceeded it in 7 out of the last 10.

謝謝，克雷格。是馬丁。讓我簡單談談有機成長和前景的一些事情。因此，就在過去 12 個月，我們實現了積極的有機資產和收入成長，去年的流量為 3,000 億美元，今年迄今為 1,930 億美元。正如我所提到的，我們對 5% 的長期基本費用目標充滿信心。我們在過去 5 年中平均達到了這一目標，並且在過去 10 年中有 7 年達到或超過了這一目標。

Our 5% organic growth target is better than 3% industry estimates. And we still feel we underwrite that number all the time together. We feel it's reasonable, it's attainable based on our product breadth, our solutions orientation, our technology capabilities. And when the management team looks at our client engagement and sales measures, we really do good -- we see good momentum. As I mentioned in my comments, our Q3 gross fund sales were at 95% at average levels over the last 12 months. So we see those as good measures of engagement and our activity with clients.

我們 5% 的有機成長目標優於 3% 的產業預期。我們仍然覺得我們一直共同承擔這個數字。我們認為這是合理的，基於我們的產品廣度、我們的解決方案導向和我們的技術能力，這是可以實現的。當管理團隊審視我們的客戶參與度和銷售指標時，我們確實做得很好——我們看到了良好的動力。正如我在評論中提到的，我們第三季的基金銷售總額為過去 12 個月平均值的 95%。因此，我們認為這些是衡量我們與客戶的互動和活動的良好衡量標準。

On the flows, we see them as just marked by this offsetting activity across our platform with some very specific client moves. The way I look at it, Craig, is, on the one hand, we had a combined $60 billion in net inflows. That's $29 billion from ETFs; it's over $13 billion in institutional, multi-asset and target date and OCIO; and it's $50 billion of cash. That right there, I think, is sort of right at a lot of the consensus or higher numbers. On the other hand, this was offset by the $50 billion of institutional index equity redemptions with $19 billion from one non-U.S. client.

在流量上，我們認為它們只是透過我們平台上的這種抵消活動以及一些非常具體的客戶動作來標記的。克雷格，我的看法是，一方面，我們的淨流入總額為 600 億美元。其中 290 億美元來自 ETF；機構、多元資產、目標日期和 OCIO 規模超過 130 億美元；這是 500 億美元的現金。我認為，這在許多共識或更高的數字上是正確的。另一方面，這項損失被一位非美國客戶 190 億美元的 500 億美元機構指數股票贖回所抵銷。

So just in assessing how we're doing, the conversations with our clients, the momentum we have, we think the flows would have obviously been very positive. But for these re-balancings, as Larry mentioned, they happen from time to time, and they have very little impact to base fees. It's a low single-digit point basis business. It's sub-3% of our revenue.

因此，在評估我們的表現、與客戶的對話以及我們所擁有的動機時，我們認為流量顯然會非常積極。但正如 Larry 所提到的，這些重新平衡會不時發生，而且對基本費用的影響很小。這是一項低個位數的點基業務。這是我們收入的不到 3%。

But what I'd say is we managed close to $2 trillion of institutional index equity. We think it's a good business. These large AUM index relationships, they have meaningful franchise value for us beyond fee rates. A large mandate of index assets, Larry mentioned, it's typically only part of our overall relationship with a client, which has active, alternatives, ETFs or advisory. And you've got to be a scaled player to be in this large index market. So this is the business we're in. And from time to time, it can impact the flow number, and that's something that we don't manage quarter-to-quarter. We look at it over the long term.

但我想說的是，我們管理著接近 2 兆美元的機構指數股票。我們認為這是一門好生意。這些龐大的 AUM 指數關係對我們來說除了費率之外還具有有意義的特許經營價值。拉里提到，指數資產的大量委託，通常只是我們與客戶整體關係的一部分，客戶有主動、另類、ETF 或諮詢服務。要進入這個龐大的指數市場，您必須成為規模較大的參與者。這就是我們所處的業務。它有時會影響流量數量，而這是我們無法按季度管理的。我們從長遠來看。

On organic base fee growth, I also think it's good to simplify this, Craig. Q3 base fees were impacted by mix. And I think those really come from 2 areas. We had $13 billion of redemptions from precision ETFs, which Larry mentioned are unique to BlackRock and important vehicles for clients and also part of our platform strategy in terms of how clients stay with iShares and move from EM to DM to high yield to treasuries, and we had $2.5 billion of outflows from retail liquid alternatives.

關於有機基本費用成長，我也認為簡化這一點是件好事，克雷格。第三季基本費用受到混合的影響。我認為這些確實來自兩個領域。我們從精準ETF 中贖回了130 億美元，拉里提到這是貝萊德獨有的，也是客戶的重要工具，也是我們平台策略的一部分，即客戶如何留在iShares 並從新興市場轉向發達市場，從高收益轉向國債，以及我們有 25 億美元的資金從零售流動性替代品流出。

And you'll remember, Craig, because I know you loved the page, from our Investor Day that we showed the average fee rates across different segments of our products and services. And if you were to take those average fee rates and the fee rates available on our public website for '40 Act alternatives, just for illustration purposes, the order of magnitude of base fee decay would be $60-plus million. So I hope that gives you a sense of what weighed on base fee growth this quarter. It's largely in those things that we know have long-term franchise value, have grown over time and added to earnings. But in any quarter-to-quarter, they may weigh on the fee rate and on the base fee growth.

你會記得，克雷格，因為我知道你喜歡這個頁面，從我們的投資者日開始，我們展示了我們產品和服務不同部分的平均費率。如果您採用這些平均費率和我們公共網站上提供的 40 法案替代方案的費率（僅出於說明目的），基本費用衰減的數量級將是 60 多萬美元。因此，我希望這能讓您了解是什麼因素影響了本季的基本費用成長。這主要在於那些我們知道具有長期特許經營價值、隨著時間的推移而增長並增加收益的東西。但在任何季度與季度之間，它們都可能會影響費率和基本費用的成長。

Over a cycle, Craig, we still see a really clear path to 5-plus percent organic base fee growth with our platform strategy. We keep growing and scaling private markets, the re-risking of global investment portfolios, we're continuing to see high-teens growth in tax-managed direct indexing with Aperio. Rob will talk a little bit, hopefully when I'm done, about the generational opportunity in active fixed income and bond ETFs, model portfolios and iShares, where we think half our ETF growth will come through models. So we still see big opportunities to continue to hit those targets and beyond.

克雷格，在一個週期內，我們仍然看到透過我們的平台策略實現 5% 以上有機基本費用成長的非常清晰的道路。我們不斷發展和擴大私募市場，重新評估全球投資組合的風險，我們繼續看到 Aperio 稅收管理直接指數的高位成長。希望在我講完後，Rob 會談談主動式固定收益和債券 ETF、模型投資組合和 iShares 的世代機會，我們認為 ETF 成長的一半將來自於模型。因此，我們仍然看到繼續實現這些目標及其他目標的巨大機會。

Rob, do you want to say a couple of things about fixed income?

羅布，您想談談關於固定收益的一些事情嗎？

So I think most of the questions are going to concern the why, the where and the when. And so the yield curve is the most inverted that it's been since the 1980s. So maybe Larry and I can add a little value since we were there at that time. And investors are really getting paid to wait, and money market funds have nearly $7 trillion in assets under management. So that's $7 trillion.

所以我認為大多數問題都會涉及原因、地點和時間。因此，殖利率曲線是 20 世紀 80 年代以來最嚴重的倒掛。所以也許拉里和我可以增加一點價值，因為我們當時就在那裡。投資者確實在等待中獲得報酬，貨幣市場基金管理著近 7 兆美元的資產。那就是 7 兆美元。

And as we approach the peak in interest rates, we expect that there are going to be some very, very large allocations to fixed income. And I'm sure someone will call it the great reallocation. And the reason is, today, there are better opportunities to invest in bonds that have been in the years. Over 80% of the bond market is yielding over 40%, enabling investors to derive a large part of their liability needs from owning bonds and access returns with less risk.

當我們接近利率高峰時，我們預計將會有一些非常非常大的固定收益配置。我確信有人會稱之為偉大的重新分配。原因是，今天有更好的機會投資多年來的債券。超過 80% 的債券市場收益率超過 40%，使投資者能夠透過持有債券來滿足大部分負債需求，並以較低的風險獲得回報。

So as Martin just said, we are so well positioned to benefit from this reallocation with our comprehensive $2.6 trillion fixed income platform, which spans unconstrained total return, municipals and actually the entire yield curve. So with more money in motion, and it will be in motion, BlackRock will benefit as clients build fixed income allocations with higher performing active, alongside of ETFs and private market strategies, in particular, right now, clients are focusing their opportunity in the short end of the curve and, of course, in private credit.

正如馬丁剛才所說，我們處於有利位置，可以透過我們2.6 兆美元的綜合固定收益平台從這種重新分配中受益，該平台涵蓋不受限制的總回報、市政回報以及實際上整個殖利率曲線。因此，隨著更多資金的流動，並且將會流動，貝萊德將受益於客戶建立具有更高表現的主動固定收益配置，以及ETF 和私人市場策略，特別是現在，客戶將機會集中在短期上曲線的末端，當然還有私人信貸。

So when? Well, we have historically seen a rebound in fixed income following rate stability. And this year's yield spikes have been mostly from market repricing and policy rate expectations. There is a lot of concern over U.S. debt levels and large treasury issuance, and investors are demanding a higher premium. So if we go back to the periods immediately following the taper tantrum in 2013 that Larry mentioned or the Fed pause in early 2019, the industry saw a very quick rebound in fixed income flows, both ETFs and active fixed income funds were the beneficiaries.

那什麼時候呢？嗯，從歷史上看，我們看到固定收益在利率穩定後出現反彈。今年的殖利率飆升主要來自市場重新定價和政策利率預期。人們對美國債務水準和大規模國債發行有許多擔憂，投資者要求更高的溢價。因此，如果我們回到拉里提到的 2013 年縮減恐慌或聯準會 2019 年初暫停之後的時期，該產業看到固定收益流量非常迅速的反彈，ETF 和主動型固定收益基金都是受益者。

So when? Well, once there's more certainty on a terminal rate and the shape of the yield curve, then we expect more deployment into fixed income. And I'll recap it. A slowdown in short-term issuance and more balanced term structure of interest rates are the indicators we're looking for in anticipation of accelerating demand for immediate and longer-duration fixed income.

那什麼時候呢？好吧，一旦終端利率和殖利率曲線的形狀更加確定，那麼我們預計會有更多的資金配置到固定收益領域。我會重述一下。短期發行放緩和利率期限結構更加平衡是我們預期短期和長期固定收益需求加速成長的指標。

Your next question comes from Michael Cyprys with Morgan Stanley.

您的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的邁克爾·賽普里斯 (Michael Cyprys)。

Question on M&A. Larry, you've suggested that you're open to large transformational M&A. I was just hoping you can articulate why that is the case. What's changed versus a couple of years ago, as I don't recall you mentioning large [transferal] M&A couple of years ago. Maybe you could talk about some of your objectives and aspirations there. And if you could help clarify, what might be the focus area versus maybe what's off the list completely?

關於併購的問題。拉里，您建議您對大型轉型併購持開放態度。我只是希望你能闡明為什麼會出現這種情況。與幾年前相比發生了什麼變化，因為我不記得您幾年前提到過大型[轉讓]併購。也許您可以在那裡談談您的一些目標和願望。如果您能幫忙澄清一下，哪些領域可能是重點領域，哪些領域可能完全不在清單之外？

So obviously, the foundation of the firm and the -- was MLIM and the BGI transaction, but we've been quite active in deals and partnerships, whether it's Jio BlackRock partnership that we're working on, which I think will be transformational. That's not an M&A deal. But our Aperio deal, our eFront deal are great examples of execution precision with 20% and 50%, respectively, increase in revenues in both those businesses.

顯然，該公司的基礎是 MLIM 和 BGI 交易，但我們在交易和合作夥伴關係方面一直非常活躍，無論是我們正在進行的 Jio BlackRock 合作夥伴關係，我認為這將是變革性的。這不是併購交易。但我們的 Aperio 交易和 eFront 交易是執行精確性的絕佳例子，這兩項業務的收入分別增加了 20% 和 50%。

I would look back and say we spent about $4 billion on M&A over the last 5 years. And I'm now challenging all of us, including myself, about what are the ecosystem changes that are around today. And if you look back when we did the big transactions, there was a lot of market unsettlement, and I think there is quite a bit going on now, big shifts. And so we are looking at different opportunities related to technology, private markets. We are always engaged in conversations, but I'm challenging the team and myself to really to think more broadly and more openly about the opportunities we have.

回顧過去，我會說過去 5 年我們在併購上花了約 40 億美元。我現在正在向我們所有人（包括我自己）提出挑戰，以了解當今的生態系統發生了哪些變化。如果你回顧我們進行大額交易時，會發現市場存在許多不穩定因素，我認為現在正在發生很多重大變化。因此，我們正在尋找與科技、私人市場相關的不同機會。我們總是進行對話，但我正在挑戰團隊和我自己，真正更廣泛、更開放地思考我們擁有的機會。

And we're engaged, we're engaged in a large way across the world, across the opportunities. That is not going to be displacing the opportunities of partnerships like the partnership with Monzo, the partnership with Reliance Industries and Jio Financial. We see those going to be additive. They inform us. They help us be more connected. We see different opportunities. And so we're challenging ourselves. We are engaged in a lot of conversations right now, probably more than we have been in many, many years. And we'll see how this all plays out.

我們正在積極參與，我們在世界各地廣泛參與，抓住機會。這不會取代與 Monzo 的合作、與 Reliance Industries 和 Jio Financial 的合作等合作機會。我們看到這些將是累積的。他們通知我們。它們幫助我們建立更緊密的聯繫。我們看到了不同的機會。所以我們正在挑戰自己。我們現在正在進行很多對話，可能比我們多年來進行的對話還要多。我們將看看這一切如何展開。

Your next question comes from Alex Blostein with Goldman Sachs.

您的下一個問題來自高盛的 Alex Blostein。

Larry, I appreciate the comments earlier. Maybe just another one around M&A. So it sounds like you have a pretty wide lens through which you're considering different targets or partnerships. Can you remind us about financial targets for a potential deal for BlackRock from an EPS accretion? And any other kind of framework you could put around what a potential yield could look like?

拉里，我很欣賞之前的評論。也許只是圍繞併購的另一件事。所以聽起來你有一個相當廣泛的視角來考慮不同的目標或合作關係。您能否提醒我們有關貝萊德潛在交易的每股盈餘成長的財務目標？還有其他類型的框架可以圍繞潛在收益的情況制定嗎？

I'm going to hand it off to Martin.

我要把它交給馬丁。

Alex, it's Martin. So the centerpiece and hallmark of the M&A strategy here has always been about accelerating organic growth. It's been about developing capabilities that we don't have and/or derisking capabilities that we're building. And I'd say when you look at eFront, when you look at Aperio, when you look at many of the transactions Larry has talked about, that's really been the center of the strategy. It's about accelerating organic growth and delivering for clients.

亞歷克斯，這是馬丁。因此，這裡併購策略的核心和標誌始終是加速有機成長。這是關於開發我們不具備的能力和/或降低我們正在建立的能力的風險。我想說，當你看看 eFront、當你看看 Aperio、當你看看 Larry 談到的許多交易時，這確實是戰略的中心。這是關於加速有機成長並為客戶提供服務。

And as Larry said, in the last 5 years, we've spent about $4 billion on M&A. We're not capital constrained. We have ample debt capacity. And so our goal is to be able to drive earnings acceleration and also deliver more for our clients through M&A.

正如拉里所說，在過去 5 年裡，我們在併購上花費了約 40 億美元。我們不受資本限制。我們有充足的償債能力。因此，我們的目標是能夠推動獲利加速，並透過併購為我們的客戶提供更多服務。

I would just add one more thing related to that. Martin, I just want to double down. We have a lot of debt capacity. We have a lot of opportunities. And we're really refocusing on where can we be additive. The one thing that I could tell you, when we do integrations of firms, we are not going to be a boutique. We are going to be organizing it and then building it out.

我只想補充一件事與此相關。馬丁，我只是想加倍努力。我們有很大的償債能力。我們有很多機會。我們確實正在重新關注我們可以在哪些方面進行補充。我可以告訴你的一件事是，當我們進行公司整合時，我們不會成為一家精品店。我們將組織它，然後建立它。

We love the opportunity to having Aperio, but it's a part of a big organized firm. We love eFront. It's organized around the whole Aladdin ecosystem. But it is not -- we're not building a boutique of different fragments. We are building a unified organization, as Martin said, to be additive in revenues, additive in client connectivity and additive in reach, reach in technology and reach in product.

我們很高興有機會擁有 Aperio，但它是一家大型組織公司的一部分。我們喜歡 eFront。它是圍繞整個阿拉丁生態系統組織的。但事實並非如此——我們並不是在建造一個由不同碎片組成的精品店。正如馬丁所說，我們正在建立一個統一的組織，以增加收入、增加客戶連接、擴大影響力、技術影響力和產品影響力。

Your next question comes from Daniel Fannon with Jefferies.

您的下一個問題來自傑弗里斯的丹尼爾·範農。

Another question on flows, active equities and alternatives, both higher fee segments and I think key contributors to you hitting your long-term base fee target. Can you talk about the trends in those businesses outside of maybe just the seasonal stuff for 3Q? But really, as we think about the next 12, 24 months, the kind of funds and growth outlook you think for both, obviously, alternatives, but then also the active equity segment?

另一個問題是關於流量、活躍股票和另類投資，這兩個部分都是較高的費用部分，我認為它們是實現長期基本費用目標的關鍵因素。除了第三季的季節性因素之外，您能否談談這些業務的趨勢？但實際上，當我們考慮未來 12、24 個月時，您對另類投資以及主動股票領域的基金類型和成長前景有何看法？

Thanks very much for the question. So when I think about the active equities business at BlackRock, we had continued to see a very strong active equity business over the last 3 years. We've generated over $30 billion in active equity net inflows, while our average AUM has grown by 34%. And so while, again, quarter-to-quarter and year-on-year, we'd fully expect to see, particularly in this environment, some rotations out of equities and into cash, which has been the main theme, I think, of this call and the [many] others, we still see really strong growth in the business. And we think it's fundamentally a big part of client portfolios.

非常感謝您的提問。因此，當我想到貝萊德的主動股票業務時，我們在過去三年中繼續看到非常強勁的主動股票業務。我們的主動股權淨流入已超過 300 億美元，而我們的平均資產管理規模增加了 34%。因此，雖然我們再次完全期望看到，特別是在這種環境下，從股票轉向現金，這一直是主題，我認為，在這次電話會議和[許多]其他電話會議中，我們仍然看到該業務的強勁成長。我們認為它從根本上來說是客戶組合的重要組成部分。

I do think over time, in our product strategy, you've seen we've been adding, for example, transparent active ETFs, through which we'll be growing our active equity business and our other active businesses. And so we think about these over time as being delivered through multiple wrappers and an integral part of our base fee growth strategy.

我確實認為，隨著時間的推移，在我們的產品策略中，你已經看到我們一直在增加透明的主動 ETF，透過這些產品，我們將發展我們的主動股票業務和其他主動業務。因此，隨著時間的推移，我們認為這些是透過多個包裝器交付的，也是我們基本費用成長策略的一個組成部分。

And let me just add to that because we have to be a little bit careful about what we call active because people are active with both their index and their ETFs through models. And I would prefer to say it's active as we originally knew the definition alongside of all of our ETF products.

讓我補充一點，因為我們必須對我們所說的活躍的東西更加謹慎，因為人們透過模型對他們的指數和 ETF 都很活躍。我更願意說它是活躍的，因為我們最初知道我們所有 ETF 產品的定義。

And when is active going to continue to have more flows? When you can add outflow. And we're going into an environment where I believe active flows will be greater because there are now more opportunities to add alpha than there has been before. So we've seen $65 billion of active net inflows in 2023 year-to-date, which compares to industry outflows. And part of that is coming from some of the different pockets that we have created that require more active than passive management.

那麼active什麼時候才能繼續有更多的流量呢？何時可以添加流出。我們正在進入一個我相信活躍流量將會更大的環境，因為現在有比以前更多的機會增加阿爾法。因此，我們看到 2023 年迄今的活躍淨流入額為 650 億美元，與產業流出額相比。其中一部分來自我們創建的一些不同的領域，這些領域需要更主動的管理而不是被動的管理。

So we continue to see strong demand in the private markets and in LifePath. These are the strength in income-oriented equities, total return in core bond strategies. So just to give you an idea, since 2019, positive active flows have been in 16 out of the 19 quarters. And a lot of that also depends upon performance. And that's what we've been able to keep our promise to with our clients and will drive active inflows going forward.

因此，我們繼續看到私人市場和 LifePath 的強勁需求。這些都是收益導向股票的優勢、核心債券策略的總回報。僅供大家參考，自 2019 年以來，19 個季度中有 16 個季度出現了積極的活躍流量。這在很大程度上也取決於性能。這就是我們能夠兌現對客戶的承諾，並將推動未來積極的資金流入。

One more last thing on this, Dan, I would just say, we have committed in enlarging our iShares platform globally. I think that's going to be an integral part of what we're doing in India. But if you look at the trends of ETFs in the year-to-date, in Europe, ETF flows are up 70%. In the U.S., the ETF flows are actually a little lower than they were last year.

最後一件事，丹，我只想說，我們已經致力於在全球擴大我們的 iShares 平台。我認為這將成為我們在印度所做的事情的一個組成部分。但如果你看看今年迄今為止 ETF 的趨勢，在歐洲，ETF 流量成長了 70%。在美國，ETF 流量實際上略低於去年。

But as we continue to build out our platform globally, we become a very large beneficiary. And what is happening in Europe, the rise of its capital markets and the utilization of ETFs as an instrument of active and an instrument of exposures and an instrument of passives, we're winning big market share in that business.

但隨著我們繼續在全球範圍內建立我們的平台，我們成為了一個非常大的受益者。歐洲正在發生的事情，其資本市場的崛起以及 ETF 作為主動工具、敞口工具和被動工具的利用，我們正在該業務中贏得巨大的市場份額。

Your next question comes from Brian Bedell with Deutsche Bank.

您的下一個問題來自德意志銀行的 Brian Bedell。

Maybe, Rob, if we could just go back to institutional fixed income, a different angle of this being the prospect of pension plans immunizing their portfolios given how much longer-term bond yields have improved. What do you sense is sort of, I guess, first of all, the potential magnitude of that switch or that reallocation to immunizing the plans as you talk with your clients? And then sort of the timing of that, are they also waiting for yields to peak to do that? Or is it more seasonal or something they might actually do by year-end?

羅布，如果我們可以回到機構固定收益，從另一個角度來看，考慮到長期債券收益率已經改善了多少，退休金計劃免疫其投資組合的前景。我想，首先，當您與客戶交談時，您認為這種轉變或重新分配免疫計劃的潛在程度是什麼？然後，他們是否也在等待收益率達到高峰才能這樣做？或者是更具季節性，還是他們可能在年底前實際做的事情？

Great question. I mean we consistently see large-scale immunization in the U.K. pension fund world. A major component of the entire U.K. market defined benefit plans have been immunized already. Over the last 5 years, about another $4 billion to $6 billion have moved out and been more and more immunized.

很好的問題。我的意思是，我們一直在英國退休基金領域看到大規模的免疫接種。整個英國市場固定福利計劃的主要組成部分已經免疫。在過去 5 年裡，大約又有 40 億至 60 億美元被轉移出去，並獲得了越來越多的免疫力。

I don't see that happening yet at a 5% or 4.5% environment yet. But if we peak long rates at 5.5%, 6%, if the yield curve becomes more steep instead of flat or inverted, that's when you're going to see it. I think it's more of the shape of the yield curve where you're going to start seeing more and more people thinking about immunization.

我還沒有看到這種情況在 5% 或 4.5% 的環境中發生。但如果長期利率達到 5.5%、6% 的峰值，如果殖利率曲線變得更陡峭，而不是平坦或倒掛，那就是你會看到的情況。我認為這更多的是收益率曲線的形狀，你將開始看到越來越多的人考慮免疫接種。

Unquestionably, on the margin, you're going to see some pension funds immunize. And it will, depending on that type of flow, it is going to put some pressure on the equity market as money moves out of equities and permanently go into long-dated bonds. We are having conversations with a lot of organizations on that. And so I can tell you there are a lot of -- there are quite a few pension funds now because our liability rate has been reset at a higher rate. They are getting closer to their -- to matching. This is more corporate plans, not state plans. And that, of course, you're going to see a significant de-risking.

毫無疑問，在邊際上，你會看到一些退休基金獲得免疫。而且，根據資金流的類型，隨著資金從股票流出並永久流入長期債券，它將給股票市場帶來一些壓力。我們正在與許多組織就此進行對話。所以我可以告訴你，現在有很多——有相當多的退休基金，因為我們的負債比率已經被重置為更高的利率。他們越來越接近他們的匹配。這更多的是企業計劃，而不是國家計劃。當然，你會看到風險顯著降低。

Instead of that, we are actually seeing more and more companies looking to earn higher returns in credit and infrastructure right now. They're trying to lock at higher returns that way. But we haven't seen a major shift of duration extension in the treasury market. And I think that's very evident right now. And that's why I think the yield curve is flattening out right now. But we are seeing significant interest level with a lot of pension funds to take -- bring down their, I would say, their exposure in equities, to bring down their exposure in some components of alternatives and focus on income-oriented alternatives to really get an 8%, 9%, 10% type of coupon return.

相反，我們現在實際上看到越來越多的公司希望在信貸和基礎設施方面獲得更高的回報。他們試圖以這種方式鎖定更高的回報。但我們還沒有看到國債市場在延長久期方面出現重大轉變。我認為這一點現在非常明顯。這就是為什麼我認為殖利率曲線現在正在趨於平緩。但我們看到許多退休基金的利息水平很高——我想說的是，降低他們在股票中的風險敞口，減少他們在另類投資的某些組成部分中的風險敞口，並專注於以收入為導向的另類投資，以真正獲得收益。8%、9%、10% 類型的優惠券回報。

Rob, do you want to follow up on that?

羅布，你想跟進一下嗎？

Yes, I'll just add a couple of things. That's a really great question because I think I speak for Larry, we haven't heard the word immunization for a very, very long time, and we've been visited by several pension plans to talk about that. Obviously, it's rate-driven. I think the number is going to be 7 plus that they're going to have to get. And if you want to do a little history, in 1995, you can have a portfolio of all bonds and get a 7.5% return. So when you add that together with the environment I described before, that might be coming.

是的，我只想添加一些內容。這是一個非常好的問題，因為我想我代表拉里發言，我們已經很長一段時間沒有聽到免疫這個詞了，而且有幾個養老金計劃拜訪過我們來談論這個問題。顯然，這是利率驅動的。我認為這個數字將是他們必須得到的 7 以上。如果你想了解一點歷史，在 1995 年，你可以擁有所有債券的投資組合並獲得 7.5% 的回報。因此，當您將其與我之前描述的環境一起添加時，這可能就會到來。

Now there's a step before that. And we have been the beneficiary of a lot of these plans. Finding that it's too complicated, they were very barbelled. They're not sure what the reallocation could be. It's hard to find the people to do this in the locations that they are, and they don't have the technology. So we've been the beneficiary through what we call the OCIO business. And we have had a significant amount of large wins in that business to help them with the appropriate reallocation.

在此之前還有一步。我們是許多這些計劃的受益者。他們發現事情太複雜了，非常猶豫。他們不確定重新分配會是什麼。在他們所在的地方很難找到能做到這一點的人，而且他們也沒有技術。因此，我們成為了 OCIO 業務的受益者。我們在該業務中取得了許多重大勝利，可以幫助他們進行適當的重新分配。

I think the next stage of that in the future might be more institutions may be going into immunizing the portfolio. But as Larry said, it's really rate-driven. We're not that far away. But a lot of things have to happen before then. And a lot of that, of course, will be done in the bond market, which, in my previous answers, really adds fuel to the fire where we could be a very big participant in that.

我認為未來的下一階段可能會有更多機構開始對投資組合進行免疫。但正如拉里所說，這確實是利率驅動的。我們離我們並不遙遠。但在那之前還有很多事情必須發生。當然，其中許多工作將在債券市場完成，在我之前的回答中，這確實火上澆油，我們可以成為其中的一個非常大的參與者。

Your next question comes from Brennan Hawken with UBS.

您的下一個問題來自瑞銀集團的布倫南霍肯。

Just kind of curious about -- thinking about expenses here. Martin, you spoke to coming into the low end of the range on the core G&A, which is certainly encouraging. But right now, it's probably a time when you all are beginning to sharpen your pencils on the budgets here into next year. The environment, BlackRock is incredibly well positioned, as you all have hit on several times here today, but the environment is challenging. And so how are you thinking about 2024? And how should we be thinking about that as we refine our models today?

只是有點好奇——考慮一下這裡的費用。馬丁，您談到核心管理費用進入了低端範圍，這當然令人鼓舞。但現在，你們可能都開始打磨明年的預算了。貝萊德的環境非常好，正如你們今天在這裡多次提到的那樣，但環境充滿挑戰。那麼您對 2024 年有何看法？當我們今天完善我們的模型時，我們應該如何思考這一點？

Thanks, Brennan. Just I will reiterate, we expect full year G&A to fall on the low end of our previously committed guidance of mid- to high-single-digit percentage increase, still accept to keep our headcount broadly flat for this year, as we've said in the last 2 quarters.

謝謝，布倫南。我要重申的是，我們預計全年 G&A 將落在我們之前承諾的中高個位數百分比增長指導的低端，但正如我們所說，我們仍然同意今年的員工人數基本持平在過去2 個季度中。

And just on outlook for expense and I suppose margin, again, our strategy for driving values to deliver organic growth, differentiated in premium operating margin and consistent capital management policy, we're focused on investing for profitable growth. When I think about operating leverage in a higher for longer rate environment, you've heard on our last few calls that we're looking to make more concentrated investments in places that can drive higher organic growth, deliver more operating efficiency, but we're also looking to add flexibility to the cost base.

僅就費用和我認為利潤率的前景而言，我們推動價值以實現有機增長的策略，在優質營業利潤率和一致的資本管理政策方面有所不同，我們專注於投資以實現盈利增長。當我考慮在更高、更長利率環境下的營運槓桿時，您在我們最近幾次電話會議中聽說，我們希望在能夠推動更高有機成長、提供更高營運效率的地方進行更集中的投資，但我們'我們也希望增加成本基礎的靈活性。

But most importantly, Brennan, we're looking to drive more fixed cost scale that comes through technology, automation, organizational design and footprinting. There are so many exciting things happening at BlackRock on that front. We launched our BlackRock AI Lab back in 2018. We've been using artificial intelligence, machine learning, natural language processing in our systematic business going back 20 years. And we have teams all over these things for how we can scale trading, pricing, operations, client service and even automation to make our software engineers most productive.

但最重要的是，布倫南，我們希望透過技術、自動化、組織設計和足跡來推動更多的固定成本規模。貝萊德在這方面發生了許多令人興奮的事情。我們早在 2018 年就推出了貝萊德人工智慧實驗室。20 年前，我們一直在我們的系統業務中使用人工智慧、機器學習、自然語言處理。我們擁有負責這些事務的團隊，負責如何擴展交易、定價、營運、客戶服務甚至自動化，從而使我們的軟體工程師發揮最大的生產力。

So if you ask me where are we going to focus investments going forward with a particular sharp eye, I look at our total annual operating expense of about $11 billion and our largest fixed investments by dollars and importance, that's our really talented BlackRock employees. So giving them more tools to enhance productivity, from large language models to better CRM, tools that help clients customize and self-service, like our BlackRock Advisor Center, those are going to be some of our best opportunities to deliver, I think, long-term profitable growth and where we'd be looking towards our expenses.

因此，如果你問我未來我們將把投資重點放在哪裡，我會以特別敏銳的眼光審視我們約110 億美元的年度營運支出以及按美元和重要性計算的最大固定投資，這就是我們真正才華橫溢的貝萊德員工。因此，為他們提供更多工具來提高生產力，從大型語言模式到更好的CRM，以及幫助客戶客製化和自助服務的工具，例如我們的BlackRock Advisor Center，我認為這些將是我們提供長期服務的最佳機會。- 長期獲利成長以及我們的支出預期。

But also, we've got great investments that I think Larry alluded to that are in commercial partnerships. Those are with TAMPs, neobrokers, digital wealth platforms, other distribution venues. So we'd invest some of that. It will be fixed M&P. Some of it will be variable distribution and servicing, which gives us some more resilience. That's some of the variablizing of expenses that I've talked about. But they all have the potential to accelerate outsized growth for iShares and other BlackRock investments. And our budget for 2024 is going to look to optimize organic growth in the most efficient way possible and expanding our premium margin over time.

而且，我們在商業合作夥伴關係方面也進行了巨大的投資，我認為拉里提到了這一點。這些是 TAMP、新經紀商、數位財富平台和其他分銷場所。所以我們會投資其中的一些。它將被修復 M&P。其中一些將是可變的分發和服務，這給我們帶來了更多的彈性。這是我談到的一些費用變化。但它們都有潛力加速 iShares 和其他貝萊德投資的大幅成長。我們 2024 年的預算將尋求以盡可能最有效的方式優化有機成長，並隨著時間的推移擴大我們的溢價利潤率。

Ladies and gentlemen, we have reached the allotted time for questions. Mr. Fink, do you have any closing remarks?

女士們、先生們，我們已經到了規定的提問時間。芬克先生，您有什麼結束語嗎？

Thank you, operator. Thank you, everyone, for joining us today and your continued interest in the organization.

謝謝你，接線生。感謝大家今天加入我們以及您對本組織的持續關注。

BlackRock's underlying business momentum remains incredibly strong. And we believe there are more money being put to work as investors [gain] clarity on the path, the path of rate movements, related to geopolitical issues and more people are seeking opportunities with BlackRock. I do see great opportunities ahead for our clients and look forward to delivering more opportunity for you, our shareholders, our investors. And I want to thank you for your continued interest. Have a good quarter.

貝萊德的基本業務勢頭仍然非常強勁。我們相信，隨著投資者對與地緣政治問題相關的利率變動路徑變得清晰，並且越來越多的人正在貝萊德尋求機會，將會有更多的資金投入其中。我確實看到我們的客戶面臨著巨大的機遇，並期待為您、我們的股東、我們的投資者提供更多機會。我要感謝您的持續關注。祝您有個愉快的季度。

This concludes today's teleconference. You may now disconnect.

今天的電話會議到此結束。您現在可以斷開連線。