Barclays PLC (BCS) 2025 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Welcome to Barclay's half-year 2025 Fixed Income Conference Call.

歡迎參加巴克萊 2025 年上半年固定收益電話會議。

I will now hand over to Anna Cross, Group Finance Director and Dan Fairclough, Group Treasurer.

現在我將把主席台交給集團財務總監 Anna Cross 和集團財務主管 Dan Fairclough。

Good afternoon and welcome to the half-one 2025 Fixed Income Investor Call. I'm joined by Dan Fairclough, our Group Treasurer.

下午好，歡迎參加 2025 年上半年固定收益投資者電話會議。和我一起參加的是我們的集團財務主管 Dan Fairclough。

Let me begin with a brief overview of our financial performance. These results mark the midpoint of our three-year plan to deliver a better run, more strongly performing and higher returning Barclays. I am pleased with the group's operational and financial progress so far.

首先，我簡單介紹一下我們的財務表現。這些結果標誌著我們三年計畫的中點，該計畫旨在實現巴克萊銀行更好的營運、更強勁的表現和更高的回報。我對該集團迄今為止的營運和財務進展感到滿意。

Return on tangible equity was 13.2% in the first half of the year and 12.3% in the quarter. Total income grew 14% year on year to GBP7.2 billion, while costs grew by 5%, supporting a 4-percentage-point improvement in our cost-income ratio to 59%. By design, our plan is delivering operational improvements across each of our divisions to derive structurally higher and more consistent group returns in 2026 and beyond.

上半年有形資產報酬率為13.2%，本季有形資產報酬率為12.3%。總收入年增 14% 至 72 億英鎊，而成本成長 5%，支持我們的成本收入比提高 4 個百分點至 59%。根據設計，我們的計劃是在每個部門實現營運改進，以在 2026 年及以後獲得結構上更高、更一致的集團回報。

All divisions generated a double-digit RoTE in Q2. This included a 2.6-percentage-point year-on-year improvement in the investment bank's RoTE to 12.2% and a 1-percentage point improvement in the US Consumer Bank to 10.2%.

所有部門在第二季度都實現了兩位數的 RoTE。其中，投資銀行的RoTE年增2.6個百分點至12.2%，美國消費者銀行的RoTE年增1個百分點至10.2%。

Our three-year plan set out in February 2024 outlined a roadmap to produce higher and more balanced returns, and I would stress that our 2026 targets were never intended to be a resting place and do not represent the extent of our ambition. We are executing against our plan as we said we would. And momentum that we are seeing across the group positions us well to deliver our RoTE guidance and targets by continuing to drive income growth, operating leverage, and business mix changes.

我們在 2024 年 2 月制定的三年計畫概述了實現更高、更均衡回報的路線圖，我想強調的是，我們的 2026 年目標從來都不是止步於此，也不代表我們的雄心壯志。我們正在按照我們所說的計劃執行。我們在整個集團看到的勢頭使我們能夠透過繼續推動收入成長、經營槓桿和業務組合變化來實現我們的 RoTE 指導和目標。

Since 2023, we have deployed GBP17 billion of business growth RWAs into Barclays UK, the UK Corporate Bank, and private bank and wealth management. This includes GBP10 billion from organic growth. This organic progress and the acquisition of Tesco Bank mean that we have now deployed more than half of the planned GBP30 billion by 2026.

自 2023 年以來，我們已向巴克萊英國、英國企業銀行以及私人銀行和財富管理業務部署了 170 億英鎊的業務成長 RWA。其中包括來自有機增長的 100 億英鎊。這項有機進展和對 Tesco Bank 的收購意味著我們現在已經部署了計劃到 2026 年 300 億英鎊的一半以上。

Within the investment bank, we have intentionally kept RWAs broadly stable for 3.5 years to drive optimization and productivity and to ensure that the division is a consistent source of capital generation for the group, which has not always been the case.

在投資銀行內部，我們有意將風險加權資產在 3.5 年內保持大致穩定，以推動優化和提高生產力，並確保該部門成為集團持續的資本產生來源，而情況並非總是如此。

Stable income streams now account for 40% of the investment bank's income in the past year, up from 29% in 2021. In addition, progress has been delivered alongside prudently managed risk, reflected in stable (inaudible). By continuing to execute our plan, we will produce structurally higher and more consistent returns supported by our diversified business model.

穩定的收入來源目前佔該投資銀行過去一年收入的 40%，高於 2021 年的 29%。此外，在審慎管理風險的同時，也取得了進展，這體現在穩定的（聽不清楚）。透過繼續執行我們的計劃，我們將在多元化業務模式的支持下產生結構性更高、更穩定的回報。

As debt investors, I appreciate credit quality is a key focus area, so I will cover this topic in more detail on the next slide. The Q2 group impairment charge of GBP469 million equated to a loan loss rate of 44 basis points. The UK credit picture remains benign with low and stable delinquencies in our consumer books and wholesale loan loss rates below our through the cycle expectations.

作為債務投資者，我知道信用品質是一個重點關注領域，因此我將在下一張投影片中更詳細地介紹這個主題。第二季集團減損費用為 4.69 億英鎊，相當於貸款損失率為 44 個基點。英國信貸狀況依然良好，消費者貸款拖欠率低且穩定，批發貸款損失率低於我們的周期預期。

The Barclays UK charge was GBP79 million in Q2, resulting in a loan loss rate of 14 basis points. The improvement versus Q1 reflected a release of credit card provisions and diminishing post-acquisition staged migration effects for Tesco Bank balances.

巴克萊英國第二季的支出為 7,900 萬英鎊，導致貸款損失率為 14 個基點。與第一季相比的改善反映了信用卡撥備的釋放以及收購後樂購銀行餘額的分階段遷移效應的減弱。

The US consumer bank charge of GBP312 million was stable year on year and down 22% versus last quarter. Consumer behavior remains resilient, with payment rates in our book above pre-COVID levels and consistent with Q1, and a stable mix of new account acquisitions as can be seen on slide 23 in the appendix.

美國消費者銀行費用為 3.12 億英鎊，年比維持穩定，季減 22%。消費者行為仍保持彈性，我們帳面上的支付率高於疫情之前的水平，與第一季保持一致，新帳戶獲取組合穩定，如附錄投影片 23 所示。

This is reflected in stable 90-day delinquencies and 30-day delinquencies which fell 20 basis points versus Q1 to 2.8%, consistent with normal seasonal trends. Looking forward, the acquisition of General Motors card balances is expected to lead to a circa GBP100 million day one charge in Q3 and a post-acquisition stage migration charge of circa GBP50 million for the next few quarters from Q4. Including this charge, we continue to expect a group loan loss rate within the through the cycle guidance of 50 to 60 basis points for full-year 2025.

這反映在穩定的 90 天拖欠率和 30 天拖欠率上，與第一季相比下降了 20 個基點，至 2.8%，與正常的季節性趨勢一致。展望未來，收購通用汽車卡餘額預計將在第三季產生約 1 億英鎊的首日費用，並從第四季開始在接下來的幾季產生約 5,000 萬英鎊的收購後階段遷移費用。包括這項費用在內，我們繼續預計 2025 年全年的集團貸款損失率將在周期指導範圍內 50 至 60 個基點。

I'll now hand over to Dan for the balance sheet highlights.

現在我將把資產負債表重點交給丹。

Thanks, Anna.

謝謝，安娜。

Let me begin first with capital on slide 7. We ended with a CET1 ratio of 14% or 13.7% adjusted for the announced H1 buyback. This is in line with our guidance that we expect to operate towards the upper half of our 13% to 14% target range. This is a deliberate consequence of the strategy which was designed to drive higher and more consistent returns and improved capital generation.

我先從第 7 張投影片上的資本問題開始。我們最終的 CET1 比率為 14%，根據宣布的 H1 回購進行調整後為 13.7%。這符合我們的指導方針，我們預計將實現 13% 至 14% 目標範圍的上半部分。這是該策略的深思熟慮的結果，旨在推動更高、更穩定的回報和提高資本創造能力。

We generated 100 basis points of capital from attributable profits in H1 and expect around 170 basis points this year, aligned to our circa 11% RoTE guidance versus around 150 basis points in 2024.

我們在上半年從可分配利潤中產生了 100 個基點的資本，預計今年將達到 170 個基點左右，與我們約 11% 的 RoTE 指導一致，而 2024 年約為 150 個基點。

Looking ahead, we note the recent PRA publications on Basel 3.1. We remain confident in our existing guidance of GBP3 billion to GBP10 billion of RWO inflation from Basel 3.1. Although we are still working through the details regarding the option to delay implementation of the model aspect of FRTB, some elements of the PRA proposals have increased their confidence in this range. For the avoidance of doubt, the range itself reflects fine tuning of implementation and potential business responses to provide mitigation. It is not specifically related to the FRTB rule set.

展望未來，我們注意到PRA近期發布的關於巴塞爾協議3.1的公告。我們仍然對巴塞爾協議3.1中30億至100億英鎊的RWO通膨預期保持信心。儘管我們仍在研究推遲實施FRTB模型方案的具體細節，但PRA提案中的一些內容增強了他們對這一範圍的信心。為避免疑問，該範圍本身反映了實施的微調和潛在的業務回應以提供緩解。它與 FRTB 規則集沒有特別的關係。

In addition, I would note that the proposals do not deal with the divergent international position, which is a principle that we will continue to engage with regulators on. As previously noted, we expect some offset in Pillar 2A. We are still awaiting further guidance in this area, which is an important element of the final impact.

此外，我要指出的是，這些提議並未涉及不同的國際立場，這是我們將繼續與監管機構接觸的原則。如前所述，我們預計支柱 2A 會出現一些抵消。我們仍在等待該領域的進一步指導，這是最終影響的重要組成部分。

On the topic of Basel 3.1, we note that European banks have recently provided detail on the effect of the output floor, which for Barclays is not expected to be binding at any point. This reflects our business mix and applies at both the group and the ring fence level.

關於巴塞爾協議 3.1 的話題，我們注意到歐洲銀行最近提供了有關產出下限影響的詳細信息，但對於巴克萊銀行而言，預計這在任何時候都不會具有約束力。這反映了我們的業務組合，並適用於集團和圍欄層面。

Moving up the capital stack on slide 8, we show our Tier 1 and total capital requirements as a proportion of RWAs. We continue to target a prudent buffer against each of these requirements, which helps us manage any RWA and FX movements, as well as our issuance and redemption profiles.

在第 8 張投影片上向上移動資本堆疊，我們顯示了我們的一級資本和總資本要求佔 RWA 的比例。我們繼續針對每項要求設定審慎的緩衝，這有助於我們管理任何 RWA 和外匯變動，以及我們的發行和贖回狀況。

Our Tier 1 ratio is 17.8% with a healthy headroom above our 14.6% regulatory requirement. Within this ratio, we had an 81 component of 3.8%. We continue to operate with higher levels of AT1 versus Tier 2. This reflects AT1's contribution to a number of regulatory metrics, specifically Tier 1, total capital, MREL, and leverage requirements.

我們的第一級資本適足率為 17.8%，比 14.6% 的監理要求還有很大的提升空間。在這個比率中，我們有 81 個組成部分，佔 3.8%。我們將繼續以高於 Tier 2 的 AT1 水準開展營運。這反映了 AT1 對一系列監管指標的貢獻，特別是一級資本、總資本、MREL 和槓桿要求。

As a result, AT1 supports the deployment of leveraged balance sheet into liquid areas such as financing within the investment bank, which generates returns significantly in excess of the cost differential between AT1 and Tier 2. Clearly our regular call and issuance schedule provides the opportunity to adjust this if required. In line with previous guidance, we expect AT1 issuances and redemptions to be broadly balanced over time. For 2025, we've so far issued GBP2.2 billion equivalent of AT1 against up to GBP3.1 billion of potential core decisions.

因此，AT1 支持將槓桿資產負債表部署到投資銀行內部融資等流動性領域，其產生的回報遠超過 AT1 和 Tier 2 之間的成本差異。顯然，我們的定期呼叫和發行計劃提供了在必要時進行調整的機會。根據先前的指導，我們預計 AT1 的發行和贖回將隨著時間的推移大致平衡。針對 2025 年，我們迄今已發行了價值 22 億英鎊的 AT1，以應對高達 31 億英鎊的潛在核心決策。

Turning now to slide 9, our MREL ratio was 35.4% as at H1. We are pleased with the progress made against our GBP14 billion issuance plan, which is now over 70% complete. Following this, we may look at some pre-funding subject to market conditions.

現在翻到投影片 9，截至上半年，我們的 MREL 比率為 35.4%。我們對 140 億英鎊發行計畫的進展感到滿意，目前已完成 70% 以上。接下來，我們可能會根據市場情況考慮一些預先融資。

We continue to seek MREL currency diversification where it makes sense. For example, during H1, we successfully issued a AUD1-billion offering and our first offshore Chinese RMB private placement. We have also been proactive and thoughtful in extending our weighted average life and historically tight spreads when compared to long run averages. This can be helpful in reducing our overall sensitivity to spreads and annual issuance requirements.

我們將繼續在合理的情況下尋求 MREL 貨幣多樣化。例如，在上半年，我們成功發行了10億澳元債券，並首次發行離岸人民幣私募債券。我們也積極主動、深思熟慮地延長了我們的加權平均壽命，並與長期平均值相比實現了歷史上較小的利差。這有助於降低我們對利差和年度發行要求的整體敏感度。

Finally, a brief word on our legacy capital. We have made continued progress on redeeming legacy instruments such as the call of the euro preference share announced in May. We remain comfortable with our residual position, which is now less than GBP1 billion, representing a very small amount when compared to our overall capital stack.

最後，簡單談談我們的遺產資本。我們在贖回遺留工具方面繼續取得進展，例如五月宣布的歐元優先股贖回。我們對我們的剩餘頭寸感到滿意，目前該餘額不到 10 億英鎊，與我們的整體資本結構相比，這個數額非常小。

The largest position within this is our US dollar preference share, where we do not have an issuer call until 2034. Given this, you should not expect to hear much more from us on Legacy Capital.

其中最大的部位是我們的美元優先股，直到 2034 年我們才有發行人贖回權。有鑑於此，您不應期望聽到我們關於 Legacy Capital 的更多消息。

Onto the next slide on liquidity, our average LCR of 178% represents GBP135 billion in excess of our regulatory requirements and includes the initial effect of methodology changes introduced in June. The average Net Stable Funding Ratio was 136% and the loan-to-deposit ratio was 74%, both demonstrating a continued robust liquidity position.

在下一張關於流動性的幻燈片中，我們的平均流動性覆蓋率為 178%，超出監管要求 1350 億英鎊，其中包括 6 月引入的方法變化的初步影響。平均淨穩定資金比率為136%，貸存比率為74%，均顯示流動性狀況持續強勁。

To give a bit more detail on the revised methodology for the LCR, we're making changes to the way we measure outflows from our secured financing activities. These changes result in a higher and more conservative net outflow calculation from modeling a more asymmetric unwind of client activity which we have not observed in actual client behavior.

為了更詳細地介紹 LCR 修訂方法，我們正在對衡量擔保融資活動流出的方式進行更改。這些變化透過對客戶活動更加不對稱的展開進行建模，導致了更高且更保守的淨流出計算，而這在實際客戶行為中我們並未觀察到。

As this is being implemented prospectively in our reporting, we expect a reduction in our average LCR ratio over time from current levels which have grown over recent years. Although these changes will utilize some of the group's surplus funding position, we expect the LCR to remain broadly within levels reported in recent years, as shown on the slide back to 2022. We will continue to hold our liquidity surplus well above regulatory requirements and maintain a robust and prudent approach to liquidity.

由於這是在我們的報告中前瞻性實施的，我們預計我們的平均 LCR 比率會隨著時間的推移而從近年來增長的當前水平下降。儘管這些變化將利用該集團的部分盈餘資金狀況，但我們預計流動性覆蓋率將大致保持在近年來報告的水平，如 2022 年幻燈片所示。我們將繼續保持流動性盈餘遠高於監管要求，並維持穩健審慎的流動性態度。

Moving on to slide 11, total deposits have increased around GBP4 billion year to date. The diversification of our deposit base has supported this outcome with growth in deposits from corporates and banks, offsetting a small contraction in consumer deposits. Corporate deposit growth has been driven by the development of our US dollar offering in the International Corporate Bank and an improved market share in the UK Corporate Bank.

轉到第 11 張投影片，今年迄今為止，總存款已增加約 40 億英鎊。我們的存款基礎多樣化支持了這一結果，企業和銀行存款的成長抵消了消費者存款的小幅收縮。企業存款的成長得益於國際企業銀行美元服務的發展以及英國企業銀行市佔率的提高。

In Barclays UK, savings deposit balances reduced slightly as customers took advantage of favorable term deposit rates around the new [ISL] season. We were disciplined around pricing for term deposits, which was competitive in the first half of the quarter. This dynamic moderated later in the quarter and our market share in current accounts has remained stable.

在英國巴克萊銀行，由於客戶在新的 [ISL] 季節期間利用優惠的定期存款利率，儲蓄存款餘額略有減少。我們對定期存款的定價非常嚴格，這在本季上半段具有競爭力。這種動態在本季後期有所緩和，我們的經常帳市佔率保持穩定。

Moving on to slide 12, income from the structural hedge is material and predictable and underpins our confidence in delivering our income targets. We have now locked in GBP11.1 billion of gross structural hedge income across 2025 and 2026, up from GBP10.2 billion last quarter. And beyond 2026, we currently expect the structural hedge to deliver multi-year NII growth.

轉到第 12 張投影片，結構性避險的收入是實質的、可預測的，並增強了我們實現收入目標的信心。我們目前已鎖定 2025 年至 2026 年 111 億英鎊的總結構性對沖收入，高於上一季的 102 億英鎊。而到了 2026 年以後，我們目前預計結構性對沖將帶來多年的 NII 成長。

As we said in April, our plan assumes that we reinvest around 90% of maturing hedges at a 3.5% yield. In each case, the Q2 outcome was more favorable than these assumptions. On rates, we locked in hedges at a higher rate of circa 3.7%, and we kept hedge balances flat, reflecting the continued stability of hedgeable deposits.

正如我們在四月所說的那樣，我們的計劃假設我們以 3.5% 的收益率對約 90% 的到期對沖進行再投資。在每種情況下，第二季的結果都比這些假設更有利。在利率方面，我們以約 3.7% 的較高利率鎖定對沖，並保持對沖餘額平穩，反映出可對沖存款的持續穩定性。

Finally, a quick word on credit ratings. Our aim remains for Barclays PLC senior to qualify a single A composite across all indices. We will continue to engage with all credit rating agencies and view this objective as consistent with the delivery of our three-year plan.

最後，簡單談談信用評級。我們的目標仍然是讓巴克萊銀行高級股在所有指數中都獲得 A 級綜合評級。我們將繼續與所有信用評級機構合作，並將這一目標視為與我們的三年計劃的實現相一致。

Throughout 2025, we've continued to demonstrate the strength of the Barclay's balance sheet. We expect our plan to continue to deliver increased capital generation supported by a more balanced business model and growth in more stable income streams.

在整個 2025 年，我們將繼續展現巴克萊資產負債表的強勁實力。我們預計，我們的計劃將在更平衡的商業模式和更穩定的收入流成長的支持下，繼續創造更多的資本。

With that, I'll hand back to Anna.

說完這些，我就把麥克風交還給安娜。

Thank you, Dan.

謝謝你，丹。

In conclusion, this is the sixth quarter of progress against our 2026 targets that we are reiterating today and remain on track to deliver.

總而言之，這是我們實現 2026 年目標的第六個季度，我們今天重申這一目標，並將繼續按計劃實現。

We'll now open the call for questions. Operator, please go ahead.

我們現在開始提問。接線員，請繼續。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員指示）

Lee Street, Citigroup.

李街，花旗集團。

Thank you for taking my questions and well done on the results today. Two for me, please.

感謝您回答我的問題，今天的成績也很好。請給我兩份。

Just on the US Consumer Bank, I was just -- wanting to understand like how does that fit -- how do you see that fitting with the rest of the Barclays businesses that they operate, synergies, how does it actually fit in and how should I think about that in terms of its strategic significance given its current size?

就美國消費者銀行而言，我只是想了解它是如何適應的——您認為它與他們運營的其他巴克萊業務、協同效應如何適應，它實際上是如何適應的，以及考慮到它目前的規模，我應該如何看待它的戰略意義？

And secondly, on capital, I know there's lots of questions this morning. I'm not going to ask what you think's going to happen, but if capital requirements were to say drop by 100 basis points just to pick around number for whatever reason, is it fair to assume that your target of CET1 ratio would also commensurately drop by 100 basis points? That's what I'd like to understand.

其次，關於資本，我知道今天早上有很多問題。我不會問您認為會發生什麼，但如果資本需求下降 100 個基點，無論出於何種原因，是否可以公平地假設您的 CET1 比率目標也會相應下降 100 個基點？這就是我想要了解的。

That'd be my two questions. Thank you.

這就是我的兩個問題。謝謝。

Okay, thanks for the questions, Lee. Why don't I start and then I'll add to -- I'll ask Dan to add.

好的，謝謝你的提問，李。我先開始，然後再補充──我會請丹補充。

So strategically, where does the US bank fit? I mean from our perspective, we believe that this is a business where we can make good returns and you can see that progress over time. So RoTE that we reported this morning is over [10%]. We are focused on getting that business to be in line with the group at greater than [12%] for 2026 and beyond that we think we can get it back to the mid-teens that we operated this business at historically.

那麼從策略角度來看，美國銀行處於什麼位置？我的意思是，從我們的角度來看，我們相信這是一項可以獲得良好回報的業務，並且您可以隨著時間的推移看到進步。因此我們今天早上報道的 RoTE 已經結束了[10%]。我們專注於使該業務在 2026 年及以後與集團保持一致，增長率超過 [12%]，我們認為我們可以將其恢復到我們歷史上運營該業務的十幾歲的水平。

To get there, there's a number of things that we need to do, work on the NIM and you can see that improving through time; we repriced the book last year and you can see it coming through; and we're also really focused on generating dollar deposits in that business which are up 27% year on year.

為了實現這一目標，我們需要做很多事情，例如努力改進淨利息收益率 (NIM)，你可以看到它隨著時間的推移而不斷改進；去年我們重新定價了帳簿，你可以看到它正在發揮作用；我們也非常注重在該業務中產生美元存款，該業務同比增長了 27%。

The cost base is also important. You can see the cost income ratio falling to 48%. We want that to be mid 40%s and delinquency is well under control, as you can see. So we do have confidence in the operating moving parts.

成本基礎也很重要。你可以看到成本收入比下降到了48%。我們希望這個比例能達到 40% 左右，這樣犯罪率就能得到很好的控制，正如您所見。因此，我們對運行中的活動部件確實充滿信心。

Beyond that, how does it connect the rest of the group? Well, I think it's important to understand that we see this because it's a partnership business, it's not a direct-to-consumer business in the same way as our UK businesses. We really see this as a business with 20 million customers, yes, of course, but it's actually 20 significant corporate clients and we see ourselves as providing consumer credit to those largely IB clients.

除此之外，它如何與團隊的其他成員建立連結？嗯，我認為重要的是要理解我們所看到的這一點，因為這是一項合作業務，而不是像我們的英國業務那樣直接面向消費者的業務。是的，我們確實將其視為擁有 2000 萬客戶的企業，當然，但實際上它是 20 個重要的企業客戶，我們將自己視為向這些主要為 IB 客戶提供消費信貸。

So that's really what's different about the bank or that part of the bank, so you can see the nexus that it's got to the IB, but it's also important to just stress the amount of connectivity between the two cards businesses on either side of the Atlantic. So we share modeling and capital approaches, we also are able to use the capability that we have in the US to bring across to Barclays UK. You can see it increasingly running a partnership model, not just with Tesco, but with Amazon and with Avios, all of that capability and attitude comes from the US, so there's quite a connectivity here. As a standalone business, it's customer service record and its level of digitization is very high, so actually it sets a good track for the rest.

所以這就是銀行或銀行部分真正的不同之處，因此你可以看到它與 IB 之間的聯繫，但同樣重要的是強調大西洋兩岸兩家信用卡業務之間的連接量。因此，我們共享模型和資本方法，我們也能夠利用我們在美國擁有的能力將其帶到巴克萊英國。您可以看到它越來越多地採用合作模式，不僅與 Tesco，還與亞馬遜和 Avios 合作，所有這些能力和態度都來自美國，因此這裡的連結性相當強。作為一家獨立企業，它的客戶服務記錄和數位化程度非常高，因此實際上它為其他企業樹立了良好的榜樣。

And finally I'll just say in terms of the overall capital efficiency of the bank. What the US cards business does is it does candidly give us a better CCAR result because it creates diversification within the US. So you can see the low point of our CCAR was 10.8% and our stress buffer is around 3.3%, pretty much in line with some of the other diversified banks in the US. So that's really important. If we were not to have this business, we would be holding proportionately more capital against the IB in the states. So provided it can wash its face and generate good returns, it provides other ancillary benefits.

最後，我只想談談銀行的整體資本效率。美國信用卡業務確實為我們帶來了更好的 CCAR 結果，因為它在美國境內實現了多樣化。因此，您可以看到我們的 CCAR 低點為 10.8%，壓力緩衝約為 3.3%，與美國其他一些多元化銀行的水平基本一致。所以這真的很重要。如果我們不開展這項業務，我們將持有與美國 IB 相當的更多資本。因此，只要它能夠洗臉並產生良好的回報，它就能提供其他附帶好處。

As to your second question about CET1, we think about CET1 across a really long-time horizon. We're satisfied with our target of 13% to 14% now. We're obviously mindful of regulatory change when and if that may come, but there's some significant pieces of that regulatory change that are still outstanding, notably what is happening on Pillar 2 as part of Basel, but also the international alignment.

至於您關於 CET1 的第二個問題，我們會從非常長遠的角度來考慮 CET1。我們對目前 13% 至 14% 的目標感到滿意。我們顯然會留意監管變化是否會發生，但監管變化中仍有一些重要部分尚未完成，特別是巴塞爾協議第二支柱的進展，以及國際協調。

Dan?

擔？

Yeah, I mean, I'd broadly say that it will be a big driver where -- what the regulatory expectations are will be a big driver of where our target is, but we will take into account a range of other things as well. So we'll look at what investors expect. We'll look at where the peer set is and peer comparisons and we'll look at it through stress as well as BAU. So there's a pretty strong link, but there are other factors as well.

是的，我的意思是，我大致上會說這將是一個很大的驅動因素——監管預期將是我們實現目標的一個重要驅動因素，但我們也會考慮一系列其他因素。因此，我們將看看投資者的預期。我們將研究同行的情況和同行的比較，並透過壓力和 BAU 來研究它。因此，兩者之間存在著相當強烈的聯繫，但也有其他因素。

(multiple speakers) thank you, Lee.

（多位發言者）謝謝你，李。

Perhaps, we could go to the next question, please, operator.

也許，我們可以進入下一個問題，接線生。

Daniel David, Autonomous.

丹尼爾·戴維（Daniel David），自治。

Congratulations on the results and thanks for taking my questions.

恭喜您取得這樣的成績，感謝您回答我的問題。

I just want to touch on a couple of topics. The first one on SRT and the second one on capital.

我只想談幾個話題。第一個是關於 SRT 的，第二個是關於資本的。

On risk transfer rates, I appreciate the disclosure. You've got in your bigger slide pack. I just wanted to ask, is there a target level you plan to get to and noting that you're one of the bigger users in Europe. And how SRT plays into loan pricing? Is it something you think about when you write new corporate loans, and although unlikely, what would be the impact on CET1 if you couldn't roll over your current risk transfer rates?

關於風險轉移率，我很欣賞這項披露。您已擁有更大的幻燈片包。我只是想問一下，您是否計劃達到一個目標水平，並指出您是歐洲最大的用戶之一。SRT 如何影響貸款定價？當您發放新的公司貸款時，您是否會考慮這個問題？儘管可能性不大，但如果您無法展期目前的風險轉移利率，會對 CET1 產生什麼影響？

The second one I guess picks up on Lee's questions somewhat, and I guess there's quite a bit of excitement growing on whether the requirements could be lower for larger UK banks. I'm just interested in your opinion, is there any areas you think that should be eased, so whether that's leveraged Pillar 2 or countercyclical and?

我想第二個問題在某種程度上回答了李的問題，我想大家對英國大型銀行的要求是否可以降低越來越感興趣。我只是對您的意見感興趣，您認為哪些領域應該放寬，無論是槓桿支柱 2 還是逆週期調節？

Then the second part of that I guess is on your range and I think the lower end of the range makes us slightly nervous and that it's less than 100 basis points over the MDA. So do you think you're likely to operate at the lower end of the range, let's say over the next year? I think we all appreciate that you're intentionally at the higher end at the moment, but just interested in to hear your thoughts there. Thanks.

那麼我想第二部分是關於您的範圍的，我認為這個範圍的下限讓我們有點緊張，它比 MDA 高出不到 100 個基點。那麼，您是否認為，比如說，在明年，您可能會以較低價格運作？我想我們都很欣賞你此刻有意處於較高水平，但我只是想聽聽你的想法。謝謝。

Yeah, thanks for the questions, Dan.

是的，謝謝你的提問，丹。

So on SRT, I mean, obviously we consider market capacity quite carefully in sizing the SRT amount. We're also very aware, which links into the last point of your question about the amount of RWAs that we would have amortizing in any particular period. So we've said that for the Colonnade Program, that's less than GBP2 billion that's something that we will use as a guide. We would always want to make sure that we could respond to any particular stress in the market. And we think we're well positioned for that at the size that we're at. As we've said before, broadly, that Colonnade Program is at maturity in terms of scale.

因此，關於 SRT，我的意思是，我們在確定 SRT 數量時顯然會非常仔細地考慮市場容量。我們也非常清楚，這與您的問題的最後一點有關，即我們在任何特定時期內攤銷的風險加權資產金額。因此，我們說過，對於 Colonnade 計畫來說，這個數字不到 20 億英鎊，我們將以此作為指導。我們始終希望確保我們能夠應對市場上的任何特定壓力。我們認為，以我們現有的規模，我們已經做好了充分的準備。正如我們之前所說，總體而言，Colonnade 計劃在規模上已經成熟。

In terms of the loan pricing, we don't reflect it directly into the loan pricing. We don't provide details with the loan originators as to what's going into the pool and what's not, and we think that's just very clear that they would not be swayed in their commercial or credit decisioning based on whether we were getting protection or not getting protection on the assets. So now we keep those two things quite separate. It's more of a risk management tool rather than a commercial tool.

就貸款定價而言，我們不會將其直接反映在貸款定價中。我們不會向貸款發起人提供哪些資產進入資產池、哪些資產不進入資產池的詳細信息，我們認為，很明顯，他們的商業或信貸決策不會因為我們是否獲得資產保護而受到影響。所以現在我們將這兩件事分開。它更像是一種風險管理工具，而不是商業工具。

In terms of the capital position, I mean, I think we've probably covered this broadly before. We took the decision to guide you to the upper half of the 13% to 14% range. We did that because we thought it was appropriate compared to where the MDA was which was 12.2%. We think that gives a sufficient comfort buffer, particularly bearing in mind both the CET1 generation that we've obviously now demonstrated very consistently and also the flexibility that we have on RWA. So I wouldn't change your view of where we expect to operate in the range.

就資本狀況而言，我想我們之前可能已經廣泛討論過這個問題。我們決定引導您達到 13% 至 14% 範圍的上半部。我們這樣做是因為我們認為與 MDA 的 12.2% 相比這是合適的。我們認為這提供了足夠的舒適緩衝，特別是考慮到我們現在顯然已經非常一致地展示的 CET1 生成以及我們在 RWA 方面的靈活性。因此，我不會改變您對我們預期在該範圍內運營的看法。

Do you want to add anything, Anna?

安娜，你還有什麼要補充的嗎？

Yeah, I mean, the only thing I would add, Dan, is that one of the things that we would hope that the regulator is seeking to achieve is actually how these different parts of the regulation fit together. So stress testing plus the capital rules, plus leverage, plus GZ, quite frankly, all of those things together need to be taken as a whole, so that's what we will be seeking to discuss and are discussing with the regulators in the background.

是的，我的意思是，丹，我唯一想補充的是，我們希望監管機構努力實現的目標之一實際上是如何將監管的不同部分協調在一起。因此，壓力測試加上資本規則、加上槓桿、加上 GZ，坦白說，所有這些因素都需要作為一個整體來考慮，所以這就是我們將要尋求討論的，並且正在與監管機構在幕後進行討論。

Thank you very much. I appreciate it.

非常感謝。我很感激。

Thanks, Dan, for the question. Operator, can we go to the next question, please?

謝謝丹提出這個問題。接線員，我們可以進入下一個問題嗎？

[Paul Vaillancourt], Society Generale.

[Paul Vaillancourt]，法國社會學會。

I've got a couple -- actually the first one, I've got three. The first one was, Dan, you mentioned, when you were talking about supply -- I'm sorry, I missed the comment you made something about not having maturities or calls until 2034. What was it that I missed about that? That's part one on supply.

我有幾個——實際上第一個，我有三個。第一個問題是，丹，你提到，當你談論供應時——抱歉，我錯過了你關於直到 2034 年才有到期日或贖回權的評論。我錯過了什麼嗎？這是有關供應的第一部分。

The second was, is it fair to assume that you're still going to be doing another AT1 to cover your calls and that you're done in Tier 2.

第二，是否可以公平地假設您仍將進行另一次 AT1 來覆蓋您的通話，並且您已完成第 2 層級。

That's that on supply. The second question relating to the US Consumer Bank, and much of that has been covered. I've just got a mechanical question with, so you've got -- in the non-UK credit card business, you've got 8% NPLs. I think I've got my maths right. If I don't, please let me know. But you've got over 4% cost of risk. What's -- if you just got enormous charge-offs, but that doesn't really tally with your relatively low delinquency rates. What is it what's happening with the mechanics there of the cost of risk versus the actual NPL balances which seem reasonably low.

這就是供應情況。第二個問題涉及美國消費者銀行，其中大部分內容已經涵蓋。我只是想問一個機械問題，所以在英國以外的信用卡業務中，不良貸款率為 8%。我認為我的數學計算正確。如果沒有，請告訴我。但你的風險成本超過4%。如果您剛剛獲得了巨額沖銷，但這與您相對較低的拖欠率並不相符。風險成本與看似相當低的實際不良貸款餘額之間的機制究竟如何？

And then the very last question is when I've asked before but nothing seems to come of it is what is it that you're looking for in terms of bad news around consumer behavior that you haven't yet seen? I mean, what's the first marker of that you guys care about in terms of a risk metric to tell us that we're in a new and more negative environment.

然後最後一個問題是，我之前問過但似乎沒有任何結果，就消費者行為而言，您正在尋找哪些您尚未看到的壞消息？我的意思是，就風險指標而言，你們關心的第一個標誌是什麼，它告訴我們我們正處於一個新的、更負面的環境。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Thanks, Paul. So I'll take the first supply question. I think Anna will pick up the rest.

謝謝，保羅。所以我來回答第一個供應問題。我認為安娜會把剩下的拿走。

Just to clarify the point about the call in 2034 was in relation to our legacy capital. So we haven't got very much legacy capital left but one of the larger transactions is [$1] preference share, so we were just clarifying that we don't have an issue at all on that until 2034, so (technical difficulty) not too much more to say on that.

只是為了澄清一下 2034 年的調用與我們的遺留資本有關。因此，我們沒有留下太多的遺留資本，但較大的交易之一是 [1 美元] 優先股，所以我們只是澄清說，在 2034 年之前我們對此完全沒有問題，所以（技術難度）對此沒有太多可說的。

In relation to supply for the rest of the year, we haven't provided guidance on specific splits, but we do have -- if we were to exercise at the first call GBP3.1 billion of AT1 calls, and we've only issued GBP2.2 billion. So, we said we would be a broadly balanced issuer in AT1 as we go through the year.

關於今年剩餘時間的供應，我們尚未提供具體拆分的指導，但我們確實有——如果我們在第一次贖回時行使 31 億英鎊的 AT1 贖回權，而我們只發行了 22 億英鎊。因此，我們表示，我們將在今年成為 AT1 領域基本平衡的發行人。

Hi Paul, just in terms of your question about cost of risk, I mean, the way I think about it is cost of risk covers two things. It covers the piece that you've called out, which is your real experienced true risk if you like which is the NPLs, but it also in very large part covers the procyclicality of IFRS 9.

你好，保羅，就你關於風險成本的問題而言，我的意思是，我認為風險成本涵蓋兩件事。它涵蓋了您所指出的部分，也就是您真正經歷的真實風險，即不良貸款，但它也在很大程度上涵蓋了 IFRS 9 的順週期性。

So what that requires us to do is basically to use macroeconomic forecasts to imagine what would happen to our portfolios in a range of economic scenarios and to give you an idea, the weighted average unemployment rate that we are looking that we are using in our US portfolio right now is 5.1%, and then you might recall in Q1, we took an additional charge because of the uncertainty.

因此，這要求我們做的基本上是使用宏觀經濟預測來想像在一系列經濟情景下我們的投資組合會發生什麼，並給你一個想法，我們目前在美國投資組合中使用的加權平均失業率是 5.1%，然後你可能還記得，在第一季度，我們由於不確定性而收取了額外的費用。

All in all, that basically means that we are running a cost of risk here that is imagining a 5.75% unemployment rate in the US. It's just that procyclicality point about IFRS 9, I think that's drawing that distinction for you.

總而言之，這基本上意味著我們在這裡承擔的風險成本是設想美國的失業率達到 5.75%。這只是 IFRS 9 的順週期性觀點，我認為這為您做出了區分。

The second question that you've got, which is what really is it that we're looking for? I mean, be reassured we look very hard at all of the data that we see both in terms of our own portfolios but also high frequency data more generally. We see nothing either in the UK or in the US and that includes retail and wholesale.

你的第二個問題是，我們真正在尋找的是什麼？我的意思是，請放心，我們會認真查看我們看到的所有數據，不僅包括我們自己的投資組合，還包括更普遍的高頻數據。在英國和美國，包括零售和批發，我們都沒有看到任何此類產品。

And specifically for cards, the thing I would be looking for would be either a market change in the way people were spending their money. And if anything, in the UK in particular, I would say people are getting a little bit more confident. We're seeing credit card spend outstripping debit card spend. In the US, we haven't really seen a huge change in spending patterns despite quite a lot of speculation about inflation and potential of inflation, but nothing significant.

特別是對於信用卡而言，我所關注的可能是人們消費方式的市場變化。如果有什麼改變的話，尤其是在英國，我想說人們變得更有自信了。我們發現信用卡消費額超過了簽帳卡消費額。在美國，儘管對通貨膨脹和通貨膨脹潛力有很多猜測，但我們並沒有真正看到支出模式發生巨大的變化，但沒有什麼重大變化。

And then the other thing I would be looking for is change in payment rates. So our customers going much more to the minimum payment level that we asked them for. The answer to that is we're not seeing that either. If anything, they remain higher than pre-COVID levels. That's true both of the UK and the US and it's true all the way through the risk stack. So we're seeing quite conservative consumer behavior that's pretty reassuring at this stage.

我還想關注的另一件事是支付率的變化。因此，我們的客戶支付的最低金額遠遠超出了我們要求的水平。答案是我們也沒有看到這一點。無論如何，它們仍然高於新冠疫情之前的水平。英國和美國都是如此，並且在整個風險體系中都是如此。因此，我們看到消費者行為相當保守，這在現階段是令人放心的。

Hopefully, that helps and answers your questions but (multiple speakers)--

希望這能幫助你解答你的問題，但是（多位發言者）——

That's great. Thank you, both.

那太棒了。謝謝你們兩位。

Thanks for that, Paul.

謝謝你，保羅。

And then, operator, please, can we go to the next question, please?

那麼，接線員，我們可以進入下一個問題嗎？

Robert Smalley, Verition Fund Management LLC.

Robert Smalley，Verition Fund Management LLC。

Hi, thanks very much for taking my question. And a lot have been asked and answered, so just a couple.

你好，非常感謝您回答我的問題。已經有很多問題被問到並得到解答，因此僅列舉幾個。

First you talked a little bit about the LCR and the LCR calculation. Can you talk about why this numbers went up so much and what you think the proper running rate should be if it should be in the 150s? Also you're running pretty hefty NSFR as well if you could address that.

首先，您談到了 LCR 和 LCR 計算。您能否談談為什麼這個數字會上升這麼多，以及您認為如果運行率應該在 150 左右，那麼適當的運行率應該是多少？如果您能解決這個問題的話，那麼您也運行了相當龐大的 NSFR。

Secondly, talked about this on the last call, but NBFI exposure, exposure to non-depository financial institutions. Could you give us an update on that specifically, what kind of exposure you have to alternative asset managers and BDCs? I know there's a lot of nomenclature issues around that, but that's really what I'm looking for as we continue to see banks lend more to their non-depository peers, competitors.

其次，上次電話會議中談到了這一點，但 NBFI 風險敞口、非存款金融機構風險敞口。您能否向我們具體介紹一下這方面的情況，您對另類資產管理公司和 BDC 有何看法？我知道這方面存在著許多命名問題，但這正是我所尋找的，因為我們繼續看到銀行向非存款同業和競爭對手提供更多貸款。

And then third, you talked about raising deposits in the US, pretty active in the Yankee CD program. Can you see doing more larger transactions, market transactions from the US bank. The same way that some of your -- [these appears] to do bank level issuance in market size.

第三，您談到了在美國籌集存款，在洋基 CD 計劃中相當活躍。你能看到美國銀行進行更多更大規模的交易和市場交易嗎？你們的一些（這些似乎）以同樣的方式在市場規模上進行銀行層面的發行。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Thank you, Robert. I'll make a start on those. So you're right, we have operated at a pretty high level of liquidity. I'd say that's partly a function of the macroeconomics and money supply and to some extent, that's seen in banks, globally.

謝謝你，羅伯特。我將開始做這些。所以你說得對，我們的營運流動性水準相當高。我認為這在一定程度上是宏觀經濟和貨幣供應的作用，並且在某種程度上，全球的銀行都存在這種情況。

I think specifically as well, in terms of our case, we have got a strategy that puts deposits at the center of the relationship in a number of different business lines. So I'd call out the growth of our US transaction bank that has obviously seen growth in deposits. Obviously a private bank and wealth management has got a good deposit franchise as well. So we're probably a significant beneficiary of that overall trend in money supply and in deposits.

我還認為，就我們的情況而言，我們有一個具體策略，將存款置於許多不同業務線關係的中心。因此，我想指出，我們的美國交易銀行的存款顯然有所成長。顯然，私人銀行和財富管理也擁有良好的存款特許經營權。因此，我們可能是貨幣供應和存款整體趨勢的重要受益者。

We called out today that we're making some changes in the LCR calculation that will bring the LCR down a little bit but I think you should expect it to remain at high levels and we're calling back if you go back to '22 or '23, it was 156% or 161% LCR ratio. So just to have that in your in your mind. Generally, we view it as it's still economic to run at that level of surplus liquidity just because the liquidity to us is low cost and therefore, it's efficient.

我們今天宣布，我們將對 LCR 計算做出一些改變，這將使 LCR 略有下降，但我認為您應該預計它將保持在高水平，如果您回到 22 年或 23 年，我們會回調，當時的 LCR 比率為 156% 或 161%。所以，只要你記住這一點即可。一般來說，我們認為在這種過剩流動性水準下運作仍然是經濟的，因為對我們來說流動性成本低，因此效率高。

Your second question on NBFIs. So there's obviously been a bit of a push in the US for the US regulators to disclose more information on that. So you can see some disclosure from us on those specific lending types. There is almost no exposure in our Barclays Bank Delaware or in our [IHC] entities. There is some exposure in our New York branch which is where we would do a lot of that type of activity, and the number there is about $20 billion. It will be to a range of NBFIs but maybe Anna, you want to pick up on why we do this type of activity.

您的第二個問題是關於非銀行金融機構。因此，美國顯然在推動美國監管機構披露更多有關此問題的資訊。因此，您可以看到我們對這些特定貸款類型的一些披露。我們的巴克萊銀行特拉華分行或我們的 [IHC] 實體幾乎沒有任何風險敞口。我們在紐約分行有一些業務，我們在那裡做了很多這類活動，那裡的業務額約為 200 億美元。它將涉及一系列非銀行金融機構，但安娜，也許你想知道我們為什麼要進行這類活動。

Yeah, thanks, Robert.

是的，謝謝，羅伯特。

I mean we do think that it occupies a really important part of the lending infrastructure more generally. Stepping back, regulation and impending regulation tends to penalize liquid risk because it sits on bank balance sheets. But yeah, the world both in the US and in the UK needs this, so there is a longer-term infrastructure spending. So we think they do form a really important part of that infrastructure.

我的意思是，我們確實認為它在整體借貸基礎設施中佔據著非常重要的一部分。退一步來說，監管和即將到來的監管往往會懲罰流動性風險，因為它存在於銀行資產負債表上。但是，是的，美國和英國都需要這個，所以需要長期的基礎設施支出。因此我們認為它們確實是該基礎設施的重要組成部分。

And we do have a very intertwined relationship with these parties, which does mean that we know them well and we can pick and choose the ones that we really want to do business with. So some providers are our competitors on a lending basis but we may lend to them, we bring their companies to market and we are quite often offering bespoke risk management transactions for them, so it's like any other counter party really. We choose those counterparties carefully, and we monitor their interactions with us carefully over time.

我們與這些方的關係確實非常密切，這意味著我們非常了解他們，我們可以挑選出我們真正想與之做生意的人。因此，一些供應商在貸款方面是我們的競爭對手，但我們可能會向他們提供貸款，我們將他們的公司推向市場，並且我們經常為他們提供定制的風險管理交易，因此它實際上就像任何其他交易對手一樣。我們謹慎地選擇這些交易對手，並長期謹慎地監控他們與我們的互動。

That's great (multiple speakers)--

那太棒了（多位發言者）——

And then Robert, your last question on (multiple speakers) -- just on US wholesale funding. So, look, we've got no plans to change the mix of US wholesale funding that we do. Generally wholesale funding would be at the more expensive end of our liability sources, so we wouldn't do that unless we had a big push to.

然後是羅伯特，你的最後一個問題是關於（多位發言者）——僅關於美國批發融資。所以，你看，我們沒有計劃改變我們所做的美國批發融資組合。一般來說，批發融資是我們負債來源中成本較高的部分，因此，除非我們大力推動，否則我們不會這樣做。

Look, if anything, as we've discussed on this call, the funding strategy for Barclays Bank Delaware is actually to do more deposits, more retail deposits. So if anything, less CDs in that mix. So no real change on the overall mix of the US funding.

瞧，正如我們在這次電話會議上討論的那樣，巴克萊銀行特拉華分行的融資策略實際上是做更多的存款，更多的零售存款。因此，如果有的話，組合中的 CD 就會減少。因此，美國資金的整體結構並沒有發生真正的變化。

Okay, with that (multiple speakers)--

好的，就這樣（多位發言者）——

Very good. Thank you both for all the detail.

非常好。謝謝你們提供的所有詳細資訊。

Thank you, Robert. Thank you for asking the questions and thank you all for joining the call. Thank you for your continued interest and support for Barclays. We hope to see many of you on the road, if not over the next few days, then perhaps into September, but thanks very much.

謝謝你，羅伯特。感謝大家提出問題，也感謝大家參加電話會議。感謝您對巴克萊銀行的持續關注與支持。我們希望在路上見到你們，如果不是在接下來的幾天，那麼也許要到九月份，但還是非常感謝。

Operator, we can now close the call.

接線員，我們現在可以結束通話了。

Thank you. That concludes today's conference call. You may now disconnect.

謝謝。今天的電話會議到此結束。您現在可以斷開連線。