Barclays PLC (BCS) 2025 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Welcome to Barclays Q1 2025 Results, Analyst and Investor Conference Call.

歡迎參加巴克萊 2025 年第一季業績、分析師和投資者電話會議。

I will now hand over to C. S. Venkatakrishnan, Group Chief Executive, before I hand over to Anna Cross, Group Finance Director.

現在我將麥克風交給集團執行長 C. S. Venkatakrishnan，然後再交給集團財務總監 Anna Cross。

Good morning everyone. Thank you for joining Barclays' first quarter 2025 results call. At our progress update 11 weeks ago, we outlined expectations for the second year of our three-year plan. These were to deliver a better run, a more strongly performing and higher return in Barclays.

大家早安。感謝您參加巴克萊銀行 2025 年第一季業績電話會議。在 11 週前的進度更新中，我們概述了三年計畫第二年的期望。這些舉措旨在為巴克萊銀行帶來更好的營運、更強勁的表現和更高的回報。

I'm pleased with our performance and progress to date, including in this, the first quarter of 2025. While the environment has certainly become more uncertain, we are firmly on track to achieve the full objectives of our plan, including approximately 11% return on tangible equity for 2025.

我對我們迄今為止的表現和進展感到滿意，包括 2025 年第一季的表現和進展。儘管環境確實變得更加不確定，但我們正堅定地朝著實現計劃的全部目標邁進，包括在 2025 年實現約 11% 的有形股權回報率。

Our confidence reflects the inherent diversification of our business, the careful and proactive approach which we adopt to managing risk, and our ongoing focus in delivery of operational efficiency. All of this is supported by a robust balance sheet, including a 13.9% CET1 ratio at the end of the first quarter. This is intentionally towards the top of our 13% to 14% target range. In addition, we are supported with very strong liquidity.

我們的信心反映了我們業務的內在多元化、我們管理風險所採取的謹慎和積極主動的方法、以及我們對實現營運效率的持續關注。所有這些都由強勁的資產負債表支撐，包括第一季末 13.9% 的 CET1 比率。這是有意設定的，接近我們 13% 至 14% 的目標範圍的上限。此外，我們也獲得了非常強勁的流動性支援。

In the first quarter, Barclays generated a return on tangible equity of 14%. This was achieved even as tangible book value grew 11% year-on-year to 372p. Total income for the first quarter was GBP7.7 billion, and importantly, the quality and stability of our income continues to improve.

第一季度，巴克萊銀行有形資產報酬率為14%。儘管有形帳面價值年增 11% 至 372 便士，但仍實現了這一目標。第一季的總收入為77億英鎊，重要的是，我們的收入品質和穩定性持續提高。

Looking ahead, we remain confident in our income growth profile, and today we are upgrading 2025 NII guidance for Barclays UK and the group, reflecting favorable deposit volumes and mix. And we will amplify our top-line growth through positive operating leverage, as we did again during the first quarter, with 6% jaws delivering a 57% cost-income ratio in the quarter.

展望未來，我們對我們的收入成長前景仍然充滿信心，今天我們上調了巴克萊英國和集團的 2025 年 NII 指引，以反映有利的存款量和結構。我們將透過積極的經營槓桿來擴大我們的營業收入成長，就像我們在第一季再次做的那樣，6%的下調在本季度實現了 57% 的成本收入比。

Moving on to our Q1 performance, we are improving operational performance across the businesses to drive sustainably higher financial returns. Last quarter, we released around GBP150 million of the circa GBP500 million growth cost efficiency savings, which we expect during the year. These savings structurally improve our cost base and the level and consistency of our returns, including beyond 2026.

談到第一季的業績，我們正在提高整個業務的營運績效，以持續推動更高的財務回報。上個季度，我們釋放了約 1.5 億英鎊，而我們預計年內將實現約 5 億英鎊的成長成本效率節約。這些節省從結構上改善了我們的成本基礎以及回報水準和一致性，包括 2026 年以後。

We are generating higher returns in two ways. First, by allocating more capital to the highest-returning UK businesses, and second, by improving returns in the lower-returning businesses in the bank, namely the Investment Bank and the US Consumer Bank. Across the three UK businesses, we continue to grow our risk-weighted assets in the quarter and deliver returns at or around the full year '26 target levels.

我們透過兩種方式獲得更高的回報。首先，向回報最高的英國業務分配更多資本；其次，提高銀行中回報較低的業務，即投資銀行和美國消費者銀行的回報。在英國的三家企業中，我們在本季持續增加風險加權資產，並實現達到或接近 26 年全年目標水準的回報。

Returns in the Investment Bank were supported by ongoing execution of management actions and strong activity in markets, in particular in fixed income and credit, where we monetized activity well and continued a disciplined approach to risk management.

投資銀行的回報得益於持續執行的管理措施和強勁的市場活動，尤其是固定收益和信貸市場，我們在這些市場中很好地實現了活動貨幣化，並繼續採取嚴謹的風險管理方法。

As you would expect in a period of uncertainty, weaker client confidence is delaying investment banking transactions, but for us, this has been more than offset by the benefits of the impact of volatility on trading revenues in markets. While RoTE in the US Consumer Bank fell year-on-year to 4.5%, the operational performance of the business continues to progress as we expected.

正如您在不確定時期所預料的那樣，客戶信心減弱正在推遲投資銀行交易，但對於我們而言，這已被市場波動對交易收入的影響帶來的好處所抵消。儘管美國消費銀行的RoTE年減至4.5%，但該業務的營運表現仍持續按照我們的預期取得進展。

Finally, we are continuing to simplify our businesses. Two weeks ago, we announced a long-term partnership with Brookfield to transform our payment acceptance business. We are looking forward to working closely with our partner to enhance the client experience, drive long-term growth, and improve financial performance for this activity.

最後，我們正在繼續簡化我們的業務。兩週前，我們宣布與 Brookfield 建立長期合作夥伴關係，以改變我們的支付接受業務。我們期待與我們的合作夥伴密切合作，以增強客戶體驗，推動長期成長，並提高此活動的財務表現。

Earlier in the quarter, we completed the sale of our German consumer finance business. So while we remain focused on executing our strategy and achieving our targets, we are obviously paying close attention to the recent market volatility and what it may imply for economic growth and business activity. And so before I hand over to Anna, let me offer some reflections on the current backdrop.

本季度早些時候，我們完成了德國消費金融業務的出售。因此，在我們繼續專注於執行策略和實現目標的同時，我們顯然也在密切關注最近的市場波動及其對經濟成長和商業活動的影響。因此，在將發言權交給安娜之前，請允許我針對當前的背景提出一些看法。

I want to emphasize at the outset that our strategy has been designed to deliver in a range of economic and financial environments, and I reiterate our confidence in achieving the targets which we have set out financially and operationally for 2025 and 2026. Our role, as ever, is to help clients navigate the changes in the environment. We must do so while prudently managing our own risk.

我想首先強調的是，我們的策略旨在在各種經濟和金融環境中實現目標，我重申我們對實現2025年和2026年制定的財務和營運目標的信心。我們的職責一如既往，是幫助客戶應對環境變化。我們必須這樣做，同時審慎管理自身風險。

We are well-positioned to do this. We start with a business mix that is diversified geographically across hotel and retail and by product. And in fact, all of this is well-illustrated by the first quarter results which we are discussing.

我們有能力做到這一點。我們從跨酒店、零售和產品等地理多元化的業務組合開始。事實上，我們正​​在討論的第一季業績充分說明了這一切。

Last but not least, our customers start from a resilient position. In the UK household balance sheets are robust and spending trends have been stable. In our US consumer businesses, our balances are skewed to prime and super prime customers. And spending and payment rates across our US customer cohorts have remained stable, including among lower FICO customers.

最後但同樣重要的一點是，我們的客戶從有彈性的立場開始。英國的家庭資產負債表強勁，支出趨勢穩定。在我們的美國消費者業務中，我們的餘額偏向優質客戶和超優質客戶。我們美國客戶群的支出和支付率保持穩定，包括 FICO 較低的客戶。

On the wholesale side, corporates are cautious about new borrowing and demonstrate a desire to maintain liquidity. Having said all that, the current environment and market volatility undoubtedly require attention and management.

在批發方面，企業對新借款持謹慎態度，並表現出保持流動性的願望。話雖如此，當前的環境和市場波動無疑需要關注和管理。

Looking ahead, we expect net interest income to grow further and for market revenues to be roughly commensurate with volatility. However, transactional and lending income could slow as companies and individuals become more cautious. This income mix provides a good measure of structural protection and stability.

展望未來，我們預期淨利息收入將進一步成長，市場收入將與波動性大致相當。然而，隨著公司和個人變得更加謹慎，交易和貸款收入可能會放緩。這種收入組合提供了良好的結構保護和穩定性。

On top of this, we have to protect ourselves, as we always do, with active risk management. We have long-established programs to transfer and hedge risk, and we will continue to do so as warranted by this environment.

除此之外，我們還必須像往常一樣，透過積極的風險管理來保護自己。我們長期以來一直實行轉移和對沖風險的計劃，我們將根據當前的環境繼續這樣做。

Finally, we continue to provision prudently across all our portfolios. In conclusion, while we recognize the risks that are inherent in the current environment, we remain confident in our income outlook and are positioning ourselves carefully to navigate through this current circumstance. We remain committed to and confident in delivering our 2025 guidance and 2026 targets, including an approximately 11% RoTE and a progressive capital distribution this year.

最後，我們將繼續對所有投資組合進行審慎的撥備。總而言之，雖然我們認識到當前環境中固有的風險，但我們仍然對我們的收入前景充滿信心，並謹慎地定位自己以應對當前的情況。我們仍然致力於並有信心實現我們的 2025 年指引和 2026 年目標，包括今年約 11% 的 RoTE 和漸進式資本分配。

I will now hand over to Anna to take us through our first quarter financials.

現在我將交給安娜來向我們介紹我們第一季的財務狀況。

Thank you, Venkat, and good morning, everyone. Slide 4 summarizes the financial highlights for the first quarter. Before going into the detail, I would remind you that we are focused, as ever, on what we can control. The plan and targets we called out at the investor update are based on realistic assumptions about the external environment. These are unchanged from the full year results and are shown in the appendix.

謝謝你，Venkat，大家早安。投影片 4 總結了第一季的財務亮點。在詳細介紹之前，我想提醒您，我們一如既往地專注於我們能夠控制的事情。我們在投資者更新中提出的計劃和目標是基於對外部環境的現實假設。這些與全年業績相比沒有變化，並顯示在附錄中。

The group's diversified business model by income and geography help support returns in a range of environments, delivering a Q1 ROTI of 14%. This was against the previous year's 12.3%, with much of the improvements reflecting income growth across all five divisions, particularly the Investment Bank and Barclays UK. Operating leverage is a key aspect of the plan to structurally improve group returns.

該集團按收入和地理劃分的多元化業務模式有助於在各種環境下實現回報，第一季的 ROTI 達到 14%。與去年的 12.3% 相比，這一成長主要反映了五個部門的收入成長，特別是投資銀行和巴克萊英國。經營槓桿是從結構上提高集團回報計畫的關鍵面向。

Income rose by 11%, while costs rose by 5%, delivering 6% positive joules and driving a 19% increase in profit before tax to GBP2.7 billion. This performance was further amplified by the effect of the share buybacks during the past year, leading to a 26% increase in earnings per share.

營收成長了 11%，而成本成長了 5%，產生了 6% 的正焦耳，推動稅前利潤成長 19%，達到 27 億英鎊。去年股票回購的影響進一步放大了這一業績，導致每股收益成長了 26%。

I remain focused on four aspects of performance. Income stability, with an increased emphasis on growth. Cost discipline and progress on efficiency savings. Credit performance and a robust capital position. These underpin our aim to deliver higher returns on a sustainable, predictable and consistent basis. I'll now cover these in more detail, starting with income on Slide 6.

我仍然專注於四個方面的表現。收入穩定，更加重視成長。成本控制和效率節約的進步。信用表現和強勁的資本狀況。這些鞏固了我們在可持續、可預測和一致的基礎上實現更高回報的目標。我現在將更詳細地介紹這些內容，從幻燈片 6 上的收入開始。

Income in Q1 increased GBP700 million to GBP7.7 billion. This growth was broad-based, including from stable income streams in retail, corporate and financing activities within markets. In the investment bank, we captured the benefit of greater market volatility during the quarter, supported by our investment across the business. And in Barclays UK, stronger than expected deposit trends are supporting higher NII, as shown on the next slide.

第一季營收增加 7 億英鎊，達到 77 億英鎊。這種成長基礎廣泛，包括來自市場內零售、企業和融資活動的穩定收入流。在投資銀行業務中，由於我們對整個業務的投資，我們在本季獲得了更大市場波動帶來的好處。如下一張投影片所示，在巴克萊英國，強於預期的存款趨勢支持了更高的 NII。

Group net interest income increased 13% year-on-year to GBP3 billion. In Barclays UK, we now expect more than GBP7.6 billion of NII during FY25, up from circa GBP7.4 billion previously. Two changes have led to this improvement in our outlook.

集團淨利息收入年增13%至30億英鎊。在巴克萊英國，我們目前預計 25 財年 NII 將超過 76 億英鎊，高於先前的約 74 億英鎊。有兩個變化導致了我們前景的改善。

First, Q1 seasonal deposit volumes were higher than we expected, particularly in current accounts consistent with more normalized behavior. Second, the mix of savings has stabilized faster than we expected. This improvement in deposit mix supports our confidence in lowering Tesco Bank's post-acquisition funding costs.

首先，第一季季節性存款量高於我們的預期，尤其是經常帳戶，與更正常的行為一致。第二，儲蓄結構比我們預期的更快趨於穩定。存款結構的改善增強了我們對降低樂購銀行收購後融資成本的信心。

These developments and a strong start to the year across other businesses mean we now expect Group NII, excluding the IB and head office, to be more than GBP12.5 billion for FY25. Up from circa GBP12.2 billion previously. The continued strength of deposits also supports greater longer-term income stability via the structural hedge.

這些發展以及其他業務今年的強勁開局意味著我們現在預計，不包括 IB 和總部的集團 NII 在 2025 財年將超過 125 億英鎊。高於之前的約122億英鎊。存款的持續強勁也透過結構性避險支持了更大的長期收入穩定性。

We have now locked in GBP10.2 billion of gross structural hedge income over the next two years, up from GBP9.1 billion last quarter. And this income will build further as we reinvest maturing hedges. We said in February that we expect to reinvest three quarters of maturing hedges at a 3.5% yield. In Q1, we were able to lock in hedges at a higher rate than our assumption, with a stable hedge notional.

我們目前已鎖定未來兩年102億英鎊的總結構性對沖收入，高於上一季的91億英鎊。隨著我們對到期對沖進行再投資，這筆收入將進一步增加。我們在二月曾表示，我們預計將以 3.5% 的收益率對三季到期的對沖進行再投資。在第一季度，我們能夠以高於我們假設的利率鎖定對沖，並保持穩定的對沖名義金額。

Continued deposit strength means we now expect to reinvest around 90% of maturing hedges during 2025 and 2026 versus 75% previously. Given this reinvestment profile and our planning assumptions for 3.5% swap rates, we expect the contribution from the structural hedge to continue well beyond 2026.

持續的存款實力意味著我們現在預計將在 2025 年和 2026 年期間對約 90% 的到期對沖進行再投資，而之前這一比例為 75%。鑑於這種再投資狀況以及我們對 3.5% 掉期利率的規劃假設，我們預計結構性對沖的貢獻將持續到 2026 年以後。

Moving on to costs. The group cost to income ratio was 57% in Q1. This provides a strong foundation to deliver guidance of circa 61% in 2025 and the high 50s target in 2026, with scope to improve further thereafter.

繼續討論成本。第一季集團成本收入比為57%。這為實現 2025 年約 61% 的指導目標和 2026 年 50% 以上的目標奠定了堅實的基礎，此後還有進一步提升的空間。

Total costs increased by GBP189 million year-on-year, with around half of this increase related to run rate costs for Tesco Bank. Q1 costs also included circa GBP50 million for the employee share grant announced at the full year result. These and other investments in business growth and inflation were partially offset by around GBP150 million of gross efficiency savings as part of the GBP500 million we expect in 2025.

總成本年增了 1.89 億英鎊，其中約一半的成長與 Tesco Bank 的營運成本有關。第一季的成本還包括全年業績公佈時宣布的約 5,000 萬英鎊的員工股份贈與。這些投資以及其他對業務成長和通貨膨脹的投資被約 1.5 億英鎊的總效率節約部分抵消，這是我們預計 2025 年將 5 億英鎊總效率節約的一部分。

Expenses associated with structural cost actions were modest in Q1 and are likely to be weighted towards the second half of 2025 and within the GBP200 million to GBP300 million normal annual range.

第一季與結構性成本行動相關的費用適中，並可能集中到 2025 年下半年，並在 2 億至 3 億英鎊的正常年度範圍內。

Turning now to impairment. I know that development in the US in particular are a big focus, so we have included some additional color on the positioning of our US card business in the appendix. Customer behavior does not reflect risks to the economic outlook and we start from a resilient position, including an IFRS 9 coverage ratio of 10.4% or 8.3% on a seasonal basis.

現在談談損害。我知道美國的發展尤其受到關注，因此我們在附錄中對美國卡業務的定位進行了一些補充說明。客戶行為並未反映經濟前景的風險，我們從一個有彈性的位置開始，包括 IFRS 9 覆蓋率為 10.4% 或按季節性計算為 8.3%。

Both 30 and 90-day delinquencies were stable in the quarter, as you can see from the two lines on this page. The USCB loan loss rate of 562 basis points increased versus Q4, reflecting reserves billed for higher seasonal balances and a post-model adjustment. I'll discuss this more on the next slide in the context of the group.

從本頁的兩行數據可以看出，本季 30 天和 90 天的拖欠率都保持穩定。美國商業銀行的貸款損失率為 562 個基點，較第四季度有所增加，反映了因季節性餘額增加和模型後調整而提列的準備金。我將在下一張投影片中結合小組情況進一步討論這個問題。

The Q1 group impairment charge of GBP0.6 billion equated to a loan loss rate of 61 basis points, modestly above our 50 to 60 basis points through the circa guidance. As a reminder, our impairment charge is based on consensus economic forecasts prevailing towards the end of the quarter. These forecasts were largely unchanged from FY24 and so do not reflect elevated US economic uncertainty.

第一季集團減損費用為 6 億英鎊，相當於貸款損失率為 61 個基點，略高於我們大致的指導價值 50 至 60 個基點。提醒一下，我們的減損費用是基於本季末普遍存在的經濟預測。這些預測與 24 財年相比基本上沒有變化，因此並未反映出美國經濟不確定性的上升。

To address this and consistent with our approach to uncertainty in the past, we increased the probability weighting of downside scenarios in our IFRS 9 calculations for US portfolios. This led to a net post-model adjustment of GBP74 million, included within the US consumer bank and the investment bank.

為了解決這個問題，並與我們過去應對不確定性的方法保持一致，我們在 IFRS 9 對美國投資組合的計算中增加了下行情境的機率權重。這導致了淨模型後調整金額為 7,400 萬英鎊，其中包括美國消費者銀行和投資銀行。

The impact for US cards relates mainly to a change in the weighted average peak US unemployment rate from 4.7% to 5.2%, resulting in a GBP38 million adjustment. While in the investment bank, a reduction in the weighted average US GDP growth from 1.6% to 0.8% led to a net GBP36 million model adjustment.

對美國信用卡的影響主要與美國加權平均高峰失業率從 4.7% 變化至 5.2% 有關，導致調整金額為 3,800 萬英鎊。而在投資銀行，美國加權平均GDP成長率從1.6%降至0.8%，導致模型淨調整3,600萬英鎊。

Outside of the US, the increase in the Barclays UK loan loss charge was mainly driven by the addition of Tesco Bank. This included a circa GBP30 million charge for the post-acquisition stage migration of some Tesco Bank balances, which should diminish beyond Q1.

在美國以外，巴克萊英國貸款損失費用的增加主要是因為樂購銀行的加入。其中包括收購後轉移部分 Tesco Bank 餘額的約 3000 萬英鎊費用，該費用在第一季之後應該會減少。

Aside from Tesco Bank, the loan loss rate for Barclays UK increased modestly but remains low. You can see financial highlights for Barclays UK on Slide 12, but I will talk to Slide 13.

除樂購銀行外，巴克萊英國的貸款損失率略有上升，但仍處於低點。您可以在第 12 張投影片上看到巴克萊英國的財務亮點，但我將討論第 13 張投影片。

RoTE was 17.4% in the quarter and total income rose 14% year-on-year to GBP2.1 billion. The integration of Tesco Bank is progressing well, with the improved deposit mix providing greater confidence on lower post-acquisition funding costs. As a result, we now expect circa GBP500 million of NII from this business in FY25 included within the updated NII guidance versus circa GBP400 million we expected previously.

本季的 RoTE 為 17.4%，總營收年增 14% 至 21 億英鎊。Tesco Bank 的整合進展順利，改善的存款結構為降低收購後的融資成本提供了更大的信心。因此，我們現在預計，25 財年該業務的 NII 收入約為 5 億英鎊，包含在更新後的 NII 指引中，而之前我們預計約為 4 億英鎊。

Stronger structural hedge income also supported greater NII versus Q4 and more than offset product margin headwinds. Non-NII of GBP252 million was due to seasonally lower customer spend, and we continue to expect a quarterly run rate above GBP250 million. Overall, income growth of 14% exceeded cost growth of 9%, enabling the cost-to-income ratio to fall to 56% despite higher investment and run rate costs for Tesco Bank.

更強勁的結構性對沖收入也支持了與第四季度相比更高的 NII，並且足以抵消產品利潤率的不利影響。2.52 億英鎊的非 NII 是由於季節性客戶支出較低，我們繼續預期季度運行率將超過 2.5 億英鎊。總體而言，儘管 Tesco Bank 的投資和營運成本較高，但 14% 的收入成長超過了 9% 的成本成長，使成本收入比降至 56%。

Moving on to the Barclays UK balance sheet. Deposits in the quarter were stronger than expected, with balances down only GBP1.1 billion, consistent with a more normalized behavior. The mix of deposits continues to develop favorably, with customers choosing to retain liquidity through current accounts and instant access savings accounts.

繼續看巴克萊英國資產負債表。本季存款表現強於預期，餘額僅下降 11 億英鎊，與更正常化的行為一致。存款結構持續呈現良好發展勢頭，客戶選擇透過活期帳戶和即時存取儲蓄帳戶來保留流動性。

Loan growth also continued in Q1, with GBP1.9 billion of net lending driven by mortgages, partially offset by lower business banking lending as clients continue to repay COVID-era loans. Indicators of future lending activity continue to improve as we pursue our strategy to deploy capital into the UK. The momentum and breadth of UK growth that we saw in the second half of 2024 continued in the first quarter.

第一季貸款也持續成長，抵押貸款推動了 19 億英鎊的淨貸款，但由於客戶繼續償還 COVID 時代的貸款，商業銀行貸款減少部分抵消了這一增長。隨著我們實施向英國部署資本的策略，未來貸款活動指標持續改善。我們在 2024 年下半年看到的英國成長動能和廣度在第一季得以延續。

Gross mortgage lending remained strong, including among home leavers and first-time buyers, supporting net lending of GBP2.2 billion. We acquired 386 new credit card customers as part of our strategy to regain market share in unsecured lending. This should support future growth in balances as customers' appetite to borrow normalizes. And we saw continued deployment of risk-weighted assets in the UK corporate bank, supporting GBP1.3 billion loan growth as clients continue to draw down lending facilities.

總抵押貸款仍然保持強勁，包括離房者和首次購房者，支持了 22 億英鎊的淨貸款。作為重新奪回無擔保貸款市場份額策略的一部分，我們獲得了 386 名新信用卡客戶。隨著客戶借貸意願的正常化，這應該會支持未來餘額的成長。我們看到英國企業銀行繼續部署風險加權資產，隨著客戶繼續提取貸款額度，支持了 13 億英鎊的貸款成長。

Moving on to Slide 17. UK corporate banks delivered a Q1 rating of 17.1%, income growth of 12%, exceeded cost growth of 3%, leading to an improved cost-to-income ratio of 53%. NII was up 23% year-on-year, reflecting higher average lending and deposit balances, while non-NII fell 10%. While this line can be volatile, we expect investments in our digital and lending propositions to drive non-NII growth over time. Impairments remain low and stable, decreasing quarter-on-quarter with lower single-name charges.

移至投影片 17。英國企業銀行第一季評等為 17.1%，營收成長 12%，超過成本成長 3%，成本收入比改善至 53%。NII 年成長 23%，反映出平均貸款和存款餘額增加，而非 NII 則下降了 10%。儘管這條線路可能會不穩定，但我們預計，隨著時間的推移，對我們的數位和貸款主張的投資將推動非 NII 的成長。減損仍保持較低且穩定，隨著單一名稱費用的降低，減損幅度逐季下降。

Turning now to private bank and wealth management. Q1 rating was 34.5%. Client assets and liabilities grew versus Q4, including net new assets under management of GBP1 billion, and income growth of 12% exceeded cost growth of 9%, leading to a cost-to-income ratio reduction to 68%. As previously guided, you should expect an increase in investment costs in the quarters to come to support advisor growth, product development, and digital capabilities.

現在談談私人銀行和財富管理。Q1評級為34.5%。客戶資產和負債較第四季度有所增長，其中管理的淨新資產為 10 億英鎊，收入增長 12%，超過成本增長 9%，導致成本收入比降至 68%。正如先前的指導，您應該預期未來幾季的投資成本會增加，以支持顧問的成長、產品開發和數位能力。

Turning now to the Investment Bank. Q1 RoTE of 16.2% was supported by income growth across most areas of the IB. Total income was up 16% year-on-year, while total costs rose 5%, resulting in positive joules and a cost-to-income ratio of 54%. Capital productivity, measured by income over average RWAs, was 7.7%, or 120 basis points better year-on-year. More now on income by business on Slide 22.

現在談談投資銀行。第一季的 RoTE 為 16.2%，這得益於 IB 大部分地區的營收成長。總營收年增16%，總成本上漲5%，焦耳為正，成本收入比為54%。以收入與平均風險加權資產比率衡量的資本生產力為 7.7%，比去年同期高出 120 個基點。第 22 張投影片詳細介紹了按業務劃分的收入。

Using the US dollar figures as usual to help comparisons to US peers, markets' income was up 16% year-on-year. FICC rose 21%, with particular strength in macro products across rates and FX and in securitized products. Equity's income was up 9%, or by 27%, excluding the prior period's one-off gains on Visa B shares.

像往常一樣使用美元數字來幫助與美國同行進行比較，市場收入同比增長了 16%。FICC 上漲 ​​21%，其中利率和外匯等宏觀產品以及證券化產品表現尤為強勁。不包括上期 Visa B 股票的一次性收益，股票收入成長了 9%，即成長了 27%。

Financing and equity derivatives were particularly strong. Investment banking fees rose 4%. Our fee share was 3.5%, including an improvement in ECM and advisory. While clients are waiting for a more stable market environment before transacting, pipelines remain strong. In transaction banking, income increased 8% percent, as we continue to implement our treasury coverage model.

融資和股權衍生性商品表現尤為強勁。投資銀行費用上漲4%。我們的費用份額為 3.5%，其中包括 ECM 和諮詢方面的改進。儘管客戶在交易前等待更穩定的市場環境，但通路依然強勁。在交易銀行業務中，隨著我們繼續實施財務覆蓋模式，收入成長了 8%。

This also contributed to US deposit balance growth of around 50% year-on-year, which we see as a lead indicator of transaction banking income growth. And corporate lending income increased strongly year-on-year, reflecting gains on leveraged finance positions.

這也促使美國存款餘額年增約50％，我們將其視為交易銀行收入成長的領先指標。企業貸款收入較去年同期強勁成長，反映出槓桿融資部位的收益。

The investment bank is on a multi-year journey to generate higher and more consistent returns. Volatility creates opportunities in markets where we generate around two-thirds of investment bank income. Investments we have made into this business allowed us to monetize these opportunities well during Q1. We did this while prudently managing risk with stable [VAR] and no lost days in our trading book. And in banking, we entered into the most recent period of volatility with limited exposure to risk, including in the last spin.

這家投資銀行正經過多年的努力，以創造更高、更穩定的回報。市場波動創造了機遇，我們在市場創造了約三分之二的投資銀行收入。我們對這項業務的投資使我們在第一季很好地將這些機會貨幣化。我們在做到這一點的同時，也審慎地管理風險，保持 [VAR] 穩定，並且交易帳簿中沒有損失天數。在銀行業，我們進入了最近的波動期，但風險敞口有限，包括上次波動。

We are also making good progress in our management actions, including in our three focus businesses, equity derivatives, European rates, and securitized products, all while growing the more stable income streams within the investment bank, including financing.

我們的管理行動也取得了良好進展，包括我們的三大重點業務，即股票衍生性商品、歐洲利率和證券化產品，同時增加投資銀行內部更穩定的收入來源，包括融資。

Turning now to the US consumer bank. US consumer bank RoTE was 4.5% in the quarter, including the GBP38 million post-model adjustment I mentioned earlier. Total income was up 1% year-on-year, as lower NII was offset by higher non-NII. NII was then 1% with NIM of 10.5%, driven by a full quarter impact of rate cuts in Q4 '24, which drove spread compression with deposits taking longer to reprice than assets. This interest rate risk is hedged with the offsetting benefit reflected in non-NII, which increased 9% year-on-year.

現在來談談美國消費者銀行。美國消費銀行本季的 RoTE 為 4.5%，其中包括我之前提到的 3800 萬英鎊的模型後調整。總收入年增 1%，因為較低的 NII 被較高的非 NII 所抵消。當時，NII 為 1%，NIM 為 10.5%，這是受 2024 年第四季降息整整一個季​​度的影響，導致利差壓縮，存款重新定價的時間比資產更長。此利率風險透過非NII反映的抵銷收益進行對沖，非NII較去年同期成長了9%。

We remain confident in achieving NIM of greater than 12% by 2026, and expect meaningful progression during 2025, as the impact of our repricing actions take hold in the portfolio. Total costs were up 5% due to an increase in partner-related expense, which is mostly offset in higher non-interest income. We continue to make good progress in increasing digital adoption and driving efficiency.

我們仍然有信心在 2026 年實現 NIM 超過 12%，並預計 2025 年將取得有意義的進展，因為我們的重新定價行動的影響將在投資組合中顯現。由於合作夥伴相關費用的增加，總成本上漲了 5%，但大部分被非利息收入的增加所抵消。我們在提高數位化應用和提高效率方面繼續取得良好進展。

End net receivables increased 4% year-on-year to $33 billion on a managed basis, all from organic growth. We continue to see strong retail deposit growth, including $2 billion quarter-on-quarter and $4 billion year-on-year, driven by the tiered savings product that we launched in Q3 2024. The percentage of total funding coming from core deposits now stands at 68%, and we expect this to increase going forward in line with our target of greater than 75% in 2026.

最終淨應收帳款年增 4%，達到 330 億美元，全部來自有機成長。由於我們在 2024 年第三季推出的分級儲蓄產品，我們的零售存款持續保持強勁成長，其中環比成長 20 億美元，較去年同期成長 40 億美元。目前，來自核心存款的總資金比例為 68%，我們預計這一比例將進一步增加，以實現 2026 年超過 75% 的目標。

Moving to the main developments impacting head office. Earlier this month, we announced a long-term partnership with Brookfield for our payment acceptance business, previously referred to as merchant acquiring. This business is strategically important, but has become less able to compete in recent years, given technology changes in the sector and, absent investments, financial performance was expected to deteriorate.

轉向影響總部的重大發展。本月初，我們宣布與 Brookfield 建立長期合作夥伴關係，開展我們的支付接受業務（以前稱為商家收單）。該業務具有重要的戰略意義，但近年來，由於該行業的技術變化和缺乏投資，其競爭力下降，預計財務表現將會惡化。

Through the partnership, Barclays will invest circa GBP400 million, mostly in the next three years, to enhance the range of services, improve efficiency, and support growth. This will begin in Q2 and has no material impact on our current financial targets or guidance.

透過此次合作，巴克萊銀行將投資約 4 億英鎊，主要在未來三年內投資，以增強服務範圍、提高效率並支持成長。這將於第二季開始，對我們目前的財務目標或指導沒有重大影響。

Over time, we expect the partnership to improve the financial performance of the business as part of Barclays Group. If Brookfield choose to increase their ownership interest after three years, our investment will be fully recovered and we will retain an interest of around 20%.

隨著時間的推移，我們預期此次合作將改善巴克萊集團旗下業務的財務表現。如果 Brookfield 選擇在三年後增加其所有權權益，我們的投資將全部收回，我們將保留約 20% 的權益。

Moving to capital. We ended the quarter at the top end of our 13% to 14% target range, with a CET1 capital ratio of 13.9%. This included 53 bps of capital generation from profits and a 12 bps benefit from the sale of German consumer finance, partially offset by the 28 bps impact of the GBP1 billion share buyback announced at FY24 results.

移居首都。本季末，我們的 CET1 資本比率達到 13.9%，處於 13% 至 14% 目標範圍的高端。其中包括利潤產生的 53 個基點的資本和出售德國消費金融產生的 12 個基點的收益，但被 24 財年業績宣布的 10 億英鎊股票回購產生的 28 個基點的影響部分抵消。

RWA decreased around GBP7 billion from Q4 to GBP351 billion, with FX accounting for circa GBP3 billion of the move. The sale of the German consumer finance business reduced head office RWAs by GBP3.3 billion, while Barclays UK and the UK Corporate Bank saw a combined RWA increase of GBP0.8 billion. Investment bank RWAs were 56% of the overall group and broadly flat from Q4, excluding Essex, despite the higher income and usual Q1 seasonality.

風險加權資產較第四季減少約 70 億英鎊至 3,510 億英鎊，其中外匯約佔 30 億英鎊。德國消費金融業務的出售導致總部風險加權資產減少了 33 億英鎊，而巴克萊英國和英國企業銀行的風險加權資產合計增加了 8 億英鎊。儘管收入較高且第一季通常呈現季節性，但投資銀行的風險加權資產佔整體的 56%，與第四季（不包括埃塞克斯）基本持平。

As usual, a word on our overall liquidity and funding on Slide 29. We have strong and diverse funding, including a 73% LDR and an NSFR of 136%, and we are highly liquid across currencies with an LCR of 175%. These measures reflect purposeful and prudent management of our balance sheet and risk, delivering resilience and capacity to support customers in a range of economic environments.

像往常一樣，第 29 張投影片介紹了我們的整體流動性和資金狀況。我們擁有強大而多元化的資金，包括 73% 的 LDR 和 136% 的 NSFR，並且我們在各個貨幣中都具有高度流動性，LCR 為 175%。這些措施反映了我們對資產負債表和風險的有目的和審慎的管理，提供了在各種經濟環境中支持客戶的彈性和能力。

TNAV per share increased GBP0.15 in the quarter and GBP0.37 year-on-year to GBP0.372. Attributable profit added GBP0.12 per share during Q1, and the unwind of the cash flow hedge reserve added GBP0.04. We expect the majority of the cash flow hedge reserve to unwind by the end of 2026. This unwind, combined with earnings growth and buybacks, give us confidence that TNAV will continue to grow consistently, as it has done for the last seven quarters, and to a greater degree than current consensus expectations.

本季每股 TNAV 增加 0.15 英鎊，年增 0.37 英鎊，達到 0.372 英鎊。第一季每股可歸屬利潤增加 0.12 英鎊，現金流對沖儲備解除增加 0.04 英鎊。我們預計大部分現金流對沖儲備將在 2026 年底前解除。此次減持，加上獲利成長和股票回購，讓我們有信心，TNAV 將繼續保持穩定成長，就像過去七個季度一樣，成長幅度將高於目前的普遍預期。

So, to summarize, we are pleased with the strong performance of the bank in Q1, which sets us up well to deliver on all our 2025 guidance as we build towards our 2026 target.

總而言之，我們對銀行在第一季的強勁表現感到滿意，這為我們在實現 2026 年目標的過程中實現所有 2025 年指導方針奠定了良好的基礎。

Over to you, Venkat, for concluding remarks.

接下來由 Venkat 作總結發言。

Thank you, Anna. Five quarters into the three-year plan, we remain on track to deliver our goals. We are working hard to deliver sustainable operational and financial improvement across our businesses. This in turn, we expect will drive higher group returns and shareholder distributions.

謝謝你，安娜。三年計劃已進行了五個季度，我們仍在按計劃實現目標。我們正在努力實現整個業務的可持續營運和財務改善。反過來，我們預計這將推動更高的集團回報和股東分配。

I will now open the Q&A. As ever, please limit yourselves to two questions per person so we can get around as many of you as possible. And as always, please introduce yourself as you ask your questions. Thank you.

我現在開始問答環節。與以往一樣，請將每個人的問題限制為兩個，以便我們盡可能多地解答大家的問題。與往常一樣，請在提問時介紹自己。謝謝。

(Operator Instructions).

（操作員指令）。

Guy Stebbings, BNP Paribas.

法國巴黎銀行的蓋伊·斯特賓斯（Guy Stebbings）。

Hi, good morning, everyone. Thanks for taking questions and a good set of results today. I did want to focus on the area which, as you rightly said, gets quite a lot of attention, which is the US consumer. And thanks for the extra disclosure.

大家好，早安。感謝您回答問題，今天取得了一系列良好的成果。我確實想專注於一個正如您所說受到很多關注的領域，那就是美國消費者。感謝您的額外披露。

I was hoping you could help us think about the book and the strategy as we look forward. So firstly, on the impairment charge, I guess for the quarter, GBP399 million, the actual write-offs themselves were flattish and sort of in line with the last four quarters. You've taken the PMA and increased the coverage. So could you talk to the drivers of the increase in the reserve bill that goes above and beyond the PMA this quarter, perhaps?

我希望您能幫助我們思考這本書以及未來的策略。首先，關於減損費用，我估計本季為 3.99 億英鎊，實際註銷金額持平，與過去四個季度基本一致。您已採取 PMA 並增加了覆蓋範圍。那麼，您能否談談本季儲備金支出超出 PMA 的增加的原因？

And in terms of the growth, as we look forward, the strategy is predicated on very much growth in the business. But I think a lot of people would understand you being a little bit more circumspect if delinquency trends looked like they were deteriorating.

就成長而言，展望未來，我們的策略很大程度上以業務成長為前提。但我認為，如果犯罪趨勢看起來正在惡化，很多人會理解你會更加謹慎。

So my question really is sort of how wedded are you to growing the book meaningfully as planned and into higher margin, but slightly higher risk segments? And how easy would it be to pause that growth, if you like? Presumably you sort of still feel good in the long term outlook and don't want to exit partnerships. So trying to understand how you weigh up balancing that strategic outlook with the current uncertainty. Thank you.

所以我的問題實際上是，您是否願意按照計劃大幅增加賬簿，並進入利潤率更高但風險略高的部分？如果你願意的話，暫停這種成長有多容易？想必您對長期前景仍然充滿信心，並且不想退出合作關係。因此，試著了解您如何權衡策略前景與當前的不確定性。謝謝。

Thank you, Guy. Thank you for the question. So I will take the first one and then I'll pass the second one to Venkat. So as we look at our US consumer business right now, we have given you additional disclosure. I'm glad that's helpful. That's on Page 38. And it's a bit more of a holistic view of what's going on in the US market generally, but also in our book. But really what's happened in Q1 is as a BAU matter, you've got a slight seasonal elevation in the impairment charge. We normally see that in Q1 and it's just reflective of the high levels of consumer spend that we see in Q4 through the holiday season.

謝謝你，蓋伊。謝謝你的提問。因此我將選擇第一個，然後將第二個傳遞給 Venkat。因此，當我們審視目前的美國消費者業務時，我們向您提供了額外的揭露。我很高興這有幫助。在第 38 頁。這不僅是對美國市場整體情況的更全面的觀察，也是我們書中的觀點。但實際上，從 BAU 角度來看，第一季發生的減損費用出現了輕微的季節性上升。我們通常在第一季看到這種情況，這只是反映了我們在第四季度假期期間看到的高水平消費者支出。

Typically, what then happens is you start to see that reverse in Q2 and beyond. So far, very straightforward. In terms of the PMA, it's worth stepping back and thinking about what we consider when we book impairment. And we're looking at two things. The first is consumer behavior. And the second is what we expect to happen in the macroeconomic environment. On the first, in consumer behavior, we see no change. And you can see that clearly on the charts. Delinquencies are relatively low and stable.

通常情況下，你會在第二季及以後開始看到這種逆轉。到目前為止，非常簡單。就 PMA 而言，值得我們回顧一下，思考一下我們在記錄減損時要考慮什麼。我們正在關注兩件事。首先是消費者行為。第二是我們對宏觀經濟環境的預期。首先，在消費者行為方面，我們沒有看到任何改變。您可以在圖表上清楚地看到這一點。拖欠率相對較低且穩定。

Actually, we see no change on the second. So US economic consensus forecasts are actually relatively static and that they're very similar to where they were at the full year. But we think that's likely a timing issue. And therefore, it's reasonable for us to assume that they will change in the coming weeks and months. And therefore, we're trying to get ahead of that. So we're being thoughtful and methodical.

實際上，我們在第二個方面沒有看到任何變化。因此，對美國經濟的普遍預測實際上是相對靜態的，與全年水準非常相似。但我們認為這可能是時間問題。因此，我們有理由相信它們將在未來幾週和幾個月內發生變化。因此，我們正在努力實現這一目標。因此，我們深思熟慮，有條不紊。

So what we've done is essentially skew the downside bias in the impairment charge to accelerate a bit of coverage here. But just as we step back, the performance of the book itself is extremely robust.

因此，我們所做的基本上是扭曲減損費用的下行偏差，以加速這裡的覆蓋範圍。但只要我們退一步來看，這本書本身的表現就極為強勁。

Venkat?

文卡特？

Yes. So I think I've said in the past, when I look at the book overall, there's about 20 corporate clients, 20 million underlying customers. And I look at the risk or we look at the risk of this portfolio in four dimensions.

是的。所以我想我過去曾說過，當我整體看這本書時，大約有 20 個企業客戶，2000 萬個潛在客戶。我從四個維度來看這個投資組合的風險。

The first dimension is who is the partner and what business they are in and so on. The second is related to that, what's the industry? We've had a bias towards travel and we've been looking to diversify out of travel. We added GAAP, we added General Motors, and we chose not to renew Americans or our share of Americans. The third is the size and renewal rate. So we like to have a mix that is relatively smaller to our overall portfolio and not a lot of renewals coming in at the same time.

第一個維度是合作夥伴是誰、從事什麼業務等等。第二個與此相關的是，什麼是產業？我們對旅遊業一直抱有偏見，並且一直在尋求旅遊業以外的多元化發展。我們增加了 GAAP，增加了通用汽車，但我們選擇不再續簽美國人協議或不再續簽我們的美國人份額。第三是規模和續約率。因此，我們希望投資組合的規模相對於我們的整體投資組合來說相對較小，並且不會同時出現大量續約。

And the last one is the actual underlying credit card, creditworthiness of the borrower. And through this combination, we like to create a business with a stable risk and high risk adjusted return. So when you take all of this together, we are continuing to want to grow this business. We do think the opportunities are great. Obviously, we will factor in the consumer environment when we do the actual risk selection of customers and look to get risk adjusted returns. And that risk selection is who do you open an account for and how do you manage credit lines. But we will continue to seek good partners that diversify our book and bring us opportunity.

最後一個是實際的基礎信用卡，借款人的信用度。透過這種結合，我們希望創造一個具有穩定風險和高風險調整回報的業務。所以，當你把所有這些考慮在一起時，我們會繼續希望發展這項業務。我們確實認為機會很大。顯然，當我們對客戶進行實際風險選擇並尋求風險調整後的回報時，我們會考慮消費者環境。而風險選擇就是你為誰開立帳戶以及如何管理信用額度。但我們將繼續尋找優秀的合作夥伴，使我們的書籍多樣化並為我們帶來機會。

Thank you, Guy. Can we go to the next question, please? Operator, could we go to the next question, please?

謝謝你，蓋伊。我們可以進入下一個問題嗎？接線員，我們可以進入下一個問題嗎？

Benjamin Toms, RBC.

班傑明‧湯姆斯（Benjamin Toms），加拿大皇家銀行。

Good morning, both. Thank you for taking my question. Both are really around regulations. Barclays has been a market leader on SRT transactions. And in April, the regulator wrote to all UK banks highlighting concerns in this area. Is there any headwinds capital that we should be considering as a result of implementing any relevant changes that are identified in that letter?

兩位早安。感謝您回答我的問題。兩者其實都與法規有關。巴克萊銀行一直是 SRT 交易市場的領導者。今年四月，監管機構致函所有英國銀行，強調了對這一領域的擔憂。在實施該信中確定的任何相關變更時，我們是否應該考慮任何不利因素？

And secondly, some of your peers have written to the government asking for a softening in the ring fencing regime. How material could a change in regulation be here for you? From the outside, it feels like you'd be one of the large beneficiaries of any change here. Thank you.

其次，你們的一些同行已經致函政府，要求放鬆圍欄制度。法規的改變對您有多大影響？從外部來看，感覺你會是這裡任何變化的最大受益者之一。謝謝。

Thank you, Ben, and good morning. Again, I'll take the first and then hand to Venkat for the second. So on SRT, the DCFO letter that we and others received recently did deal with SRT, but it was actually more focused on the financing of SRT. And to be really clear, we do not finance our own SRT programs. So we're not extending financing to investors who are then ongoing investors in our SRT. So we think that's the focus.

謝謝你，本，早安。再次，我會拿下第一個，然後把第二個交給 Venkat。因此，關於 SRT，我們和其他人最近收到的 DCFO 信確實涉及 SRT，但實際上更專注於 SRT 的融資。需要明確的是，我們不資助我們自己的 SRT 計畫。因此，我們不會向目前是我們 SRT 的投資者提供融資。所以我們認為這就是重點。

From our perspective, we've run our Colonnade program since 2016. We share the details of each tranche of that with the regulator in order to get capital relief and we manage the reinvestment risk around that very, very carefully, as we've, you know, outlined before. So we're comfortable with our position and wouldn't envisage any capital consequences. Venkat?

從我們的角度來看，我們自 2016 年以來就一直在運行 Colonnade 計劃。我們與監管機構分享每部分的詳細信息，以獲得資本減免，並且我們非常非常謹慎地管理周圍的再投資風險，正如我們之前概述的那樣。因此，我們對自己的立場感到滿意，並且不會考慮任何資本後果。文卡特？

Yes, so on ring fencing, I think you know that of the major UK banks, we have been opposed to any change and relaxation in the ring fencing regime. So while I agree with what others say that there is friction in the system, there was obviously a high cost to set up the ring fence. Let's call it a sunk cost now. And there's a little bit of trapped capital and liquidity. And if you release that in the short term, it would be good for banks. And let's argue for some customers.

是的，關於隔離制度，我想你知道，作為英國的主要銀行，我們一直反對對隔離制度進行任何改變和放鬆。因此，儘管我同意其他人所說的系統存在摩擦，但設置圍欄的成本顯然很高。現在我們稱之為沉沒成本。還有一些資本和流動性被困住了。如果你在短期內釋放這些資金，這將對銀行有利。讓我們為一些顧客爭論一下。

But I think in the long term, it weakens the system because it weakens deposit protection. I think the ring fence is an extremely strong and secure form of deposit protection in the UK. And while it might be short term attractive, I think in the long term, it weakens the system and weakens the participants in the system. And that includes Barclays. That's why on balance, I do not think we should change the ring fence regime. And I'm a strong supporter of it in its current form.

但我認為從長遠來看，它會削弱整個體系，因為它削弱了存款保護。我認為圍欄存款是英國一種極其強大和安全的存款保護形式。雖然它可能在短期內具有吸引力，但我認為從長遠來看，它會削弱系統並削弱系統參與者。其中包括巴克萊銀行。這就是為什麼總的來說，我認為我們不應該改變圍欄製度。我堅決支持其目前的形式。

Christopher Cant, Bernstein Autonomous LLP

克里斯多福‧坎特（Christopher Cant），Bernstein Autonomous LLP

Good morning. Thank you for taking my questions. I have two, please. First on RWA, how should we think about RWA developments into 2Qs, specifically thinking about market risk here, given the volatility? Obviously, 1Q was a somewhat unusual quarter where IB RWAs were down on a constant FX basis, didn't seem to demonstrate the usual seasonality. So any color you could give us on how to think about Q-on-Q RWA developments into 2Q for the IB would be helpful, please.

早安.感謝您回答我的問題。請給我兩份。首先關於風險加權資產，考慮到波動性，我們應該如何看待第二季的風險加權資產發展，特別是考慮市場風險？顯然，第一季是一個有點不尋常的季度，其中 IB RWA 按恆定匯率計算下降，似乎沒有表現出通常的季節性。因此，如果您能向我們提供有關如何看待 IB 第二季度 Q-on-Q RWA 發展情況的任何細節，那將會很有幫助。

And as I think out to sort of targets, the 2026 targets that you've given us previously, and the circa GBP50 billion of RWA growth you expected by the end of 2026, obviously Basel 3 is being delayed, Card IRB transition, I guess, is probably going to be a '27 event. I know you've said it's sort of ambiguous, but that's not necessarily going to hit you. With the weaker dollar, I guess that's also going to reduce the RWA growth. How should we be thinking now about where you expect to land in 2026 for group RWAs relative to that previous GBP50 billion growth expectation?

當我考慮這些目標時，您之前給我們的 2026 年目標，以及您預計到 2026 年底 RWA 增長約 500 億英鎊，顯然巴塞爾協議 3 被推遲了，我猜，信用卡 IRB 過渡可能會成為 27 年的事件。我知道您說過這有點模稜兩可，但這不一定會影響到您。由於美元走弱，我猜這也會降低風險加權資產的成長。相對於之前的 500 億英鎊的成長預期，我們現在應該如何思考您預計 2026 年集團風險加權資產將達到什麼水平？

I also just wanted to add one on the US. So thank you again for reconfirming the FX splits for group and IB income and costs. I think that's helpful for us in thinking about the weaker dollar. But in the event that the US administration applied some Section 899 taxes to UK companies, for instance, due to digital service tax proposals, how would we be best thinking about the possible impact of that for Barclays?

我還想補充一點關於美國的內容。因此，再次感謝您重新確認集團和 IB 收入和成本的外匯分割。我認為這對我們思考美元疲軟問題很有幫助。但是，如果美國政府根據數位服務稅提案對英國公司徵收第 899 條規定的某些稅款，我們該如何最好地考慮這對巴克萊銀行可能產生的影響？

Would it simply be a case of taking the country-by-country disclosures you give us and multiplying that percentage of PBT by the relevant incremental tax top up? Or is there something more nuanced we need to do in terms of subsidiary financials and that sort of thing? Thank you.

這是否只是將您向我們提供的逐國披露信息，然後將 PBT 百分比乘以相關的增量稅補足額？或者在子公司財務和諸如此類的事情方面，我們需要做一些更細緻的事情？謝謝。

Thank you, Chris. I think there were at least three questions there, so I will attempt to deal with them in order.

謝謝你，克里斯。我認為那裡至少有三個問題，所以我將嘗試按順序處理它們。

So on the IB RWAs, we remain fairly clear that the business should operate within the third circa GBP200 billion of RWAs that we've allocated to it. And you can see us doing that very, very consistently actually since '23. So we were doing it for some time before we even did the investor update. This period is no different really.

因此，對於 IB 風險加權資產，我們仍然相當清楚，該業務應該在我們分配給它的三分之一約 2000 億英鎊的風險加權資產範圍內運營。事實上，自 2023 年以來，我們就一直在非常堅持地這樣做。因此，在向投資者更新資訊之前，我們已經做了一段時間了。這個時期確實沒有什麼不同。

And you can see that nimbleness in RWA deployment in the first quarter. So if you look in the disclosures, you'll see that credit risk RWAs are down, market risk RWAs are up, and counterparty credit risk RWAs are up. So our intention is to manage it nimbly within the framework that we have given them.

您可以看到第一季 RWA 部署的彈性。因此，如果您查看披露信息，您會發現信用風險 RWA 下降，市場風險 RWA 上升，交易對手信用風險 RWA 上升。因此，我們的目的是在我們為他們提供的框架內靈活地進行管理。

And sort of to your second part of the question, which is really around the RWA shape from here. The way we think about it, Chris, is that there is some uncertainty around the timing and the quantum of the regulatory impact. And we've given you our best view that may happen at the beginning of '27, as opposed to the end of '26. But we don't feel that it undermines the fundamental objective of the plan.

這有點像是問題的第二部分，實際上是圍繞著 RWA 形狀展開的。克里斯，我們認為，監管影響的時間和數量存在一些不確定性。我們已經向您提供了我們的最佳觀點，該觀點可能在 27 年初發生，而不是 26 年底。但我們並不認為這會破壞該計劃的根本目標。

And the fundamental objective of the plan is to hold our RWAs and the IB broadly flat, as I said, and to deploy RWA growth into our highest returning UK businesses. And that part of the plan, which is, if you like, is the most strategic part, remains intact. I think as the regulatory environment becomes clearer and those timings become clearer, we can give you sort of exact splits and impacts of that.

正如我所說，該計劃的基本目標是保持我們的 RWA 和 IB 基本持平，並將 RWA 成長部署到我們回報率最高的英國業務中。該計劃的這一部分，如果你願意的話，可以說是最具策略性的部分，仍然保持不變。我認為，隨著監管環境和時間變得更加清晰，我們可以為您提供確切的劃分和影響。

And then on the final part of your question. So what would a US tax change mean for Barclays? Well, there are obviously short term and long term differences. So in the short term, what we would see for a rise in US tax rates, for example, would be an increase in deferred tax assets. So you'd see a short term boost to capital and then obviously you'd have a longer term drag from any higher rate.

然後是關於你問題的最後一部分。那麼美國稅收變化對巴克萊銀行意味著什麼？嗯，顯然存在短期和長期差異。因此，從短期來看，例如，美國稅率上升將導致遞延稅務資產增加。因此，你會看到資本在短期內得到提振，但顯然，更高的利率會在長期內帶來拖累。

It's a bit too early to give you precise guidance. We're expecting an initial US tax bill in Q2. And some of the discussion that's happened around higher rates for non-US firms, I mean, clearly hasn't been confirmed or firmed up into any kind of regulation yet. And I just remind you that the IHC is actually a US firm. BB PLC branch isn't. So there is some nuances. You're exactly right within this that we'd have to guide to nearer the time. So I think it's not quite as simple as looking at the country-by-country reporting, unfortunately.

現在給你精確的指導還為時過早。我們預計美國將在第二季公佈初步稅收法案。我的意思是，有關對非美國公司提高利率的一些討論顯然尚未得到確認或確定為任何形式的監管。我只是想提醒你，IHC 實際上是一家美國公司。BB PLC 分公司不是。因此存在一些細微差別。你說得完全正確，我們必須引導大家更接近那個時間。因此，不幸的是，我認為這並不像查看逐個國家的報告那麼簡單。

Okay, thank you. Perhaps we can go to the next question, please.

好的，謝謝。也許我們可以進入下一個問題。

Amit Goel, Mediobanca.

Amit Goel，Mediobanca。

Hi, thank you. And thanks for that extra disclosure on USCB. I just want to check, I mean, obviously, the UK NII is being guided up and the IB Q1 performance has been strong. So just thinking about the 11% RoTE guidance for this year, which has remained the same. So just curious, is that to reflect perhaps a bit more uncertainty in the environment? Or is it just a case of just not changing it at this point? Or a bit more risk on that USCB part of the business? So number one, just curious why the 11% hasn't changed. As well.

你好，謝謝。感謝您對 USCB 的額外揭露。我只是想檢查一下，我的意思是，顯然，英國 NII 正在被引導上升，並且 IB Q1 表現強勁。因此，僅考慮今年 11% 的 RoTE 指導，該指導保持不變。所以只是好奇，這是否反映了環境中更多的不確定性？還是只是目前不進行改變的情況？或者 USCB 業務部分的風險會比較大？所以首先，我只是好奇為什麼 11% 沒有改變。也一樣。

And then secondly, in terms of the hedge benefit beyond 2026, I think you're commenting, obviously, that it remains quite a strong tailwind. So just wanted to double check the kind of roll-off yield that you're anticipating, say, in 2027. We have about 2.5%. Just wanted to check whether it's in the right kind of ballpark or whether you think actually the roll-off yield is a bit lower or a bit higher than that? Thank you.

其次，就 2026 年以後的對沖收益而言，我認為您顯然在評論說，它仍然是一個相當強烈的順風。因此，我只是想再確認一下您預期的滾動收益率，例如 2027 年的收益率。我們大約有2.5%。只是想檢查一下它是否在正確的範圍內，或者您認為實際的滾動收益率比這低一點或高一點？謝謝。

Okay. Thanks, Amit. I'll take both of those. So we've obviously seen a strong Q1 and that's coming through not only in the income line, but all the way through the P&L. So we've got good operating leverage and we're pleased with that performance. But it's only the first quarter of the year. So all we've done is we've repeated our circa 11% guidance and I'm not signaling anything by repeating that guidance, whether that be in income costs or impairments. So I'm merely repeating it.

好的。謝謝，阿米特。我會接受這兩個。因此，我們顯然看到了強勁的第一季表現，這不僅體現在營收線上，也體現在損益表中。因此，我們擁有良好的經營槓桿，並且對這一表現感到滿意。但現在才只是今年第一季。因此，我們所做的就是重複我們大約 11% 的指導，我重複該指導並不表示任何意思，無論是收入成本還是減值。所以我只是重複一下。

On the second question around the hedge benefit, we have said today that we expect the hedge momentum to continue beyond 2026. Why have we said that? Well, if I take you back to deposits and the stability of deposits, what that means now is that we expect the hedge notion to be broadly stable from here. And that actually takes one of the variables off the table.

關於對沖收益的第二個問題，我們今天已經說過，我們預計對沖勢頭將持續到 2026 年以後。我們為什麼這麼說？好吧，如果我帶你回到存款和存款穩定性的問題上，現在意味著我們預計對沖概念從現在開始將大體保持穩定。這實際上就消除了其中一個變數。

So all we're doing now is we are comparing, if you like, the prevailing swap with the yield on the hedge, whether that be the average yield or indeed the maturing yield. We haven't given any disclosure on maturing yield beyond 2026. But I think if you do this simple math, which I know many of you have done, and just take our planning assumption of 3.5 and push that through the maturing elements of '25 and '26, you will find that the average hedge yield in 2027 is below 3.5% so that's really what we are signaling here and obviously as we get closer we'll talk a bit more about maturing yields but just a bit too far out for that. Hopefully that's helpful.

因此，我們現在所做的就是比較現行掉期與避險收益率，無論是平均收益率還是到期收益率。我們尚未披露 2026 年以後到期收益率的任何資訊。但我認為，如果你做這個簡單的數學題，我知道很多人都做過，只要把我們的規劃假設 3.5 推到 2025 年和 2026 年的到期要素，你就會發現 2027 年的平均對沖收益率低於 3.5%，所以這確實是我們在這裡發出的信號，顯然我們越來越接近這一點。希望這會有所幫助。

Okay thank you. Can we go to the next question please?

好的，謝謝。我們可以進入下一個問題嗎？

Alvaro Serrano, Morgan Stanley.

摩根士丹利的阿爾瓦羅·塞拉諾。

Good morning and apologies if you've already touched on this because I joined a bit late because of multitasking. On US cards, you have the GBP40 billion receivables target you've maintained for 2026 and I just wonder with the sort of broader discussions around the US cycle, you obviously need to signup new clients, new JVs to get to that. Is it the right time? Do you feel there's enough visibility to take on significant portfolios to achieve that GBP40 billion or would you need to wait just to think about that sort of medium term target?

早上好，如果您已經談到這一點，我很抱歉，因為我當時因為多任務處理而加入得有點晚。對於美國信用卡，您設定了到 2026 年應收帳款達到 400 億英鎊的目標，我只是想知道，在圍繞美國週期的更廣泛討論中，您顯然需要簽約新客戶、建立新合資企業才能實現這一目標。現在是時候了嗎？您是否認為有足夠的透明度來承擔大量投資組合以實現 400 億英鎊的目標，或者您需要等待一段時間才能考慮這種中期目標？

Then another one on the IP and general activity. Could you maybe give us a bit of color on how the investment bank has done during the quarter or maybe even April or by region? What I'm trying to get to is obviously Q1 is very good but if volatility comes down are we suddenly going to see a very quiet sort of performance and how much of the activity you think, how much visibility you have for the rest of the year? It's a difficult question but any hand holding or color would be much appreciated. Thank you.

然後是另一個關於 IP 和一般活動的內容。您能否向我們介紹一下該投資銀行在本季、甚至四月或按地區的表現？我想說的是，第一季的表現顯然非常好，但如果波動性下降，我們是否會突然看到非常平靜的表現，您認為今年剩餘時間的活躍程度如何，能見度如何？這是一個很難的問題，但如果能得到任何幫助或幫助，我們將非常感激。謝謝。

Alvaro, hi. I'll start with cards and we've covered a little bit of this but I'll go over it again and then Anna will talk about the investment bank. So on the US cards portfolio, the growth is going to come in net receivables from three things. One is organic growth in our existing portfolio. The second is how we choose to flex the lever that we have used of risk transfers. We can do more or less and if we do less the receivables are up there on our book.

阿爾瓦羅，你好。我將從卡片開始，我們已經討論了一點，但我會再講一遍，然後安娜將談論投資銀行。因此，就美國信用卡組合而言，成長將來自三方面的淨應收帳款。一是現有投資組合的有機成長。第二是我們如何選擇靈活運用我們所使用的風險轉移槓桿。我們可以做得更多或更少，如果我們做得更少，應收帳款就會出現在我們的帳簿上。

And then the third thing is portfolio changes which is new accounts or accounts leaving. So on the first one which is organic growth we're fairly comfortable that we continue to see organic growth and we have a very high credit quality portfolio. We're looking to diversify it among certain sectors but it's a high credit quality portfolio.

第三件事是投資組合變化，即新帳戶或帳戶流失。因此，就第一個面向是有機成長而言，我們相當放心，我們將繼續看到有機成長，並且我們擁有非常高的信用品質組合。我們希望在某些領域實現多元化，但這是一個高信用品質的投資組合。

On the second one which is risk transfer there's always a question at the time of what capital benefit we get, what's the price at which we sell it and whether it suits our risk management. As you say given that we've chosen not to bid for our portion for a renewal of our portion of American all else equal we would want to keep things on our balance sheet. Third is acquisitions or the other disposals.

關於第二個問題，即風險轉移，我們總是會問一個問題：我們獲得什麼資本收益，我們以什麼價格出售它，以及它是否適合我們的風險管理。正如你所說，鑑於我們選擇不競標我們的份額以續簽我們的美國份額，在其他條件相同的情況下，我們希望將一些內容保留在我們的資產負債表上。第三是收購或其他處置。

We've renewed a bunch of our other accounts through 2024. I think we've mentioned that in our previous full year earnings. And then we continue to look in this environment even in this environment especially in this environment at good quality portfolios that we think rounds out our business. These things are very long term decisions. A typical portfolio takes two to three years to decide to bid and to come to you and then it's there with you for hopefully seven years. So these are long term decisions and I wouldn't let the short term stuff in the market affect that decision making. Anna?

我們已經將許多其他帳戶的合約續約至 2024 年。我想我們在之前的全年收益中已經提到過這一點。然後，我們會繼續在這種環境下，特別是在這種環境下尋找我們認為可以完善我們業務的優質投資組合。這些都是非常長期的決定。典型的投資組合需要兩到三年的時間來決定投標並交給你，然後它會陪伴你七年。所以這些都是長期決策，我不會讓市場上的短期因素影響這些決策。安娜？

Thanks Venkat. Alvara the only thing I'd add to that is that achieving the plan and the returns that we want in USCB is not just only volume either. We're working very hard on margins. We're working very hard on cost and digitization of the business and also the capital efficiency as Venkat said. So a plan of many parts. Let me talk about the IB sort of generally in the quarter and then I'll pass across to Venkat who might want to add at the end.

謝謝 Venkat。阿爾瓦拉，我唯一要補充的是，實現我們在 USCB 中想要的計劃和回報不僅僅是數量。我們正在努力提高利潤率。正如 Venkat 所說，我們正在努力降低業務成本、實現業務數位化，同時提高資本效率。所以這是一個由很多部分組成的計劃。讓我大致談談本季的 IB 情況，然後我會交給 Venkat，他可能想在最後進行補充。

If you think about what should have happened to our IB in the quarter given the volatility that we've seen, we should see strong markets revenues in the more subdued banking environment and that's exactly you know the shape of our results very much in line with the market more broadly. As I look at Q1 in particular we've been investing in this business for some time and investing to create a franchise that allows us to perform in a range of environments and you see that. So the FICC results very strong and I think that reflects our investment in securitized products. It reflects our investments in our rates businesses and equities is strong.

如果您想想考慮到我們所看到的波動性，我們的 IB 在本季度應該發生什麼，那麼我們應該在較為低迷的銀行環境中看到強勁的市場收入，而這正是我們所知道的，我們的業績形態與整個市場非常一致。當我特別關注第一季時，我們已經在這個業務上投資了一段時間，並投資創建一個特許經營權，使我們能夠在各種環境中開展業務，你看到了這一點。因此，FICC 的業績非常強勁，我認為這反映了我們對證券化產品的投資。這反映出我們對利率業務和股票的投資強勁。

Actually you'll recall there was a one-off last year but you know our equities position has been very much driven by the investments that we've made in equity derivatives. So we feel like we're facing the market with a much more complete franchise and of course our financing business adds stability and is probably less impacted by volatility but you can see good growth in there that's obviously also underpinning FICC and equities.

實際上你會記得去年有一次一次性事件，但你知道我們的股票狀況很大程度上受到我們在股票衍生品上的投資的驅動。因此，我們感覺我們正以更完整的特許經營權面對市場，當然我們的融資業務增加了穩定性，可能受波動的影響較小，但你可以看到其中的良好增長，這顯然也支撐了 FICC 和股票。

I said we would have expected the IB to be a bit softer and of course or investment banking to be a bit softer in Q1 and of course it has been we feel that in line with the street and in fact we've seen share gains across advisory ECM DCM and for the complex overall albeit in a smaller market and I just remind you that that our planning assumption was for this market to be 10% down year on year and that's broadly what we see in Q1. All of this has been underpinned by us being a bit more nimble in RWAs in the IB as I've said but we're really focused all the way through the P&L and the performance of the IB so you see good cost control and you'll also see very, very good risk control.

我說過，我們原本預計 IB 會稍微疲軟，當然投資銀行業務在第一季度也會稍微疲軟，當然，我們認為這與華爾街的看法一致，事實上，我們已經看到諮詢 ECM DCM 和整體綜合體的份額有所增長，儘管市場規模較小，我只是提醒您，我們的計劃假設是這個市場同比下降 10%，這大致就是我們在第一季度看到的情況。正如我所說，這一切都得益於我們在 IB 中的 RWA 方面更加靈活，但我們真正關注的是 IB 的損益表和業績，因此您會看到良好的成本控制，還會看到非常非常好的風險控制。

We've disclosed today for the first time consistently both our bar progression and indeed our lost days and you can see we're not taking outsized risk. I should have actually mentioned also a very good performance within the ICB, the International Corporate Bank within banking so financing and the ICB are both less sort of impacted by volatility. Venkat do you want to comment?

今天，我們首次披露了我們的酒吧進度以及我們損失的日子，你可以看到，我們並沒有承擔過大的風險。我實際上應該提到 ICB 內部也表現得非常好，國際企業銀行在銀行業中的地位因此融資和 ICB 都較少受到波動的影響。Venkat 你想發表評論嗎？

Yes, I'll re-emphasize what Anna said at the beginning which is that if you see the first quarter results you see the performance you would expect to see in the places you would expect to see them and obviously we can't talk about the second quarter. We don't. We're about a month into it but again re-emphasize what Anna said on the market side.

是的，我將再次強調安娜一開始所說的話，那就是如果你看到第一季的業績，你會看到你期望在你期望看到的地方看到的表現，顯然我們不能談論第二季度。我們沒有。我們已經進行了大約一個月，但再次強調安娜在市場方面所說的話。

You know when there's volatility we aim to put our clients first and to do intermediation and risk management for our clients. That is what we strive to do and it can be profitable as long as you manage your own risks well which is what we strive to do and Anna gave you the data on the first quarter results of that. So that's what we strive to do every day and on banking activity you know people will wait for clarity until they resume.

您知道，當出現波動時，我們的目標是將客戶放在第一位，並為客戶提供中介和風險管理。這就是我們努力去做的事情，只要您管理好自己的風險，就可以盈利，這也是我們努力去做的事情，安娜向您提供了第一季業績的數據。這就是我們每天努力做的事情，對於銀行業務，你知道人們會等待情況明朗，直到業務恢復。

It could happen sooner than we think. But the overall business is pretty well diversified whether you look at the investment bank and you look at deposit growth in the International Corporate Bank, you look at the International Corporate Bank, you look at market or even the whole bank as a whole.

這可能比我們想像的更快發生。但無論從投資銀行、國際企業銀行的存款成長、國際企業銀行、市場甚至整個銀行來看，整體業務都是相當多樣化的。

Chris Hallam, Goldman Sachs Group, Inc.

高盛集團 Chris Hallam

Yes, good morning everybody. Thanks for taking my questions. Two quick ones. So given the conservative banking wallet already embedded in your planning assumptions which I guess you just referenced, are there any initiatives either on the cost side or the investment side that you would need to either undertake or delay should 2025 sort of indeed play out as per those wallet assumptions is the first question.

是的，大家早安。感謝您回答我的問題。兩個簡單的。因此，考慮到您剛才提到的規劃假設中已經包含了保守的銀行錢包，如果 2025 年確實按照這些錢包假設進行，那麼第一個問題是，無論是成本方面還是投資方面，您是否需要採取或推遲任何舉措。

And then second, you mentioned the substantial increase in transaction banking deposits in the US. How has that trended post quarter end? So if companies are maybe building liquidity, delaying some investment spend, are you seeing that show up in your deposit volumes? Thank you.

第二，您提到美國交易銀行存款大幅增加。本季結束後趨勢如何？因此，如果公司可能正在建立流動性，推遲一些投資支出，您是否會看到這體現在存款量中？謝謝。

Okay, thanks. Thanks Chris. Thanks for the questions. I'll take the first one and then I'll hand across to Venkat. As I said, that was our assumption for banking and actually what we're seeing here is the diversification of income working really well across the bank both in terms of more than offset by markets activity and also the strength that we're seeing coming through in the UK and the UK complex more generally across deposits that's underpinned our upgrade today. So, you know, the revenue line appears to be very robust and we have confidence in it.

好的，謝謝。謝謝克里斯。感謝您的提問。我會拿第一個，然後交給 Venkat。正如我所說，這是我們對銀行業的假設，實際上，我們在這裡看到的是，收入多樣化在整家銀行中發揮了很好的作用，這不僅體現在市場活動的抵消作用上，還體現在我們看到的英國和英國綜合體在存款方面普遍呈現的強勁勢頭，這支撐了我們今天的升級。所以，您知道，營收線看起來非常強勁，我們對此充滿信心。

That said, that does not undermine our focus on costs. You know, it's what we're doing every day. It's a key part of the strategy. You can see that all the way through the P&L today, income up by 11%, profits up by 19%. The plan is to create operating leverage, not just at the group, but across every single business within the group.

話雖如此，但這並不會削弱我們對成本的關注。你知道，這就是我們每天都在做的事情。這是該策略的關鍵部分。您可以看到，透過今天的損益表，收入增加了 11%，利潤增加了 19%。該計劃旨在創造經營槓桿，不僅在集團內，而且在集團內的每個業務部門。

Overall, I still expect what I expected at the year end, which is for incremental investment to underpin the longer term growth of the plan and investment -- I'm sorry, inflation to outweigh our gross efficiencies for the year and for us to see an uptick in costs. All of that is contained within the most important cost metric, which is cost income ratio at 61%. That is the number that we are most focused on.

總體而言，我仍然期望年底能夠實現我的預期，即增量投資將支撐計劃和投資的長期增長——對不起，通貨膨脹將超過我們今年的總效率，我們將看到成本上升。所有這些都包含在最重要的成本指標中，即 61% 的成本收入比。這是我們最關注的數字。

It's likely that we'll see some movement in absolute cost. I'm happy with consensus as it currently starts, but it is FX sensitive and it is performance and volume sensitive. And therefore, I'd really urge you to focus on the cost income ratio target that we've given. We feel like 57% in Q1 is a good down payment against that and should show you how focused we are on operating leverage.

我們很可能會看到絕對成本發生一些變化。我對目前開始的共識感到滿意，但它對外匯很敏感，對性能和音量也很敏感。因此，我真的敦促你專注於我們給出的成本收入比目標。我們認為第一季的 57% 是一個不錯的首付，並且應該向您展示我們對經營槓桿的關注程度。

Venkat, transaction banking?

Venkat，交易銀行業務？

So, transaction banking has been an area of great emphasis for us in the last few years. We spoke about it last year, we've spoken about it at our year-end earnings. People choose us and the quantum of deposits is based on two factors. One is the growth in our overall transaction banking business or relationships generally, people's choice of us as a counterparty, which is increasing. And then ultimately, their needs for cash and their use of cash.

因此，交易銀行業務在過去幾年一直是我們重點關注的領域。我們去年就討論過這個問題，在年終收益報告中也討論過這個問題。人們選擇我們以及存款量取決於兩個因素。一是我們的整體交易銀行業務或關係總體上有所增長，人們選擇我們作為交易對手的情況正在增加。最後，他們對於現金的需求以及他們對現金的使用。

In this period, we continue to see happily people choosing us as a counterparty newly, and that's good. And that's improving again. And then I think on cash, what you're seeing is growth in deposits, in part, what you would expect when people are being cautious on the deploying of cash for transactions. So, you're seeing deposit growth whether it's individuals or it's institutions. It's all what you would normally expect in this environment.

在此期間，我們繼續高興地看到人們選擇我們作為新的交易對手，這很好。而這種情況正在再次改善。然後我認為就現金而言，您看到的是存款的成長，在某種程度上，當人們對使用現金進行交易持謹慎態度時，這是您所期望的。因此，無論是個人還是機構，你都會看到存款成長。這一切都是你在這個環境中通常所期望的。

Perlie Mong, Bank of America.

Perlie Mong，美國銀行。

Hello. Hi, Anna. So, just a couple of questions. One, just quickly touching on the US card margin. So, obviously, that's been down. But you've talked about some of the drivers, some of the time lags between deposit pricing and asset pricing.

你好。你好，安娜。所以，我只想問幾個問題。第一，簡單談談美國卡的保證金。所以，顯然，這個數字已經下降了。但您已經談到了一些驅動因素，以及存款定價和資產定價之間的一些時間延遲。

And I know you've mentioned that the interest rate risk is already hedged. But I guess the market is pricing in faster and more rate cuts on the US side for the rest of the year, maybe three or four rate cuts. So, if that were to happen, I guess, is it already in your planning assumption? And if that were to happen, would you still expect the meaningful progression during 2025, as you've just talked about? So, I guess that's number one.

我知道您提到利率風險已經被對沖了。但我猜測，市場已經預期美國在今年剩餘時間內將採取更快、更多的降息措施，或許是三次或四次。那麼，如果發生這種情況，我想，這是否已經在您的計劃假設中了？如果發生這種情況，您是否仍期待 2025 年出現有意義的進展，正如您剛才談到的那樣？所以，我想這是第一點。

Number two, I guess, more broadly on the full year '26, greater than 12% returns target. So, consensus has just got to about 12% taken a year to get there. I guess the operating environment is arguably a little bit more challenging. Certainly, impairment looks like it is possible that it will go up given economic indicators coming down maybe a little bit. And I suppose in general, US dollar weakening is probably not super helpful either. So, where do you see a gap between your planning assumption and where consensus is? Because you've reiterated guidance.

第二，我想，從更廣泛的角度來看，26 年全年的回報目標要高於 12%。因此，共識僅花了一年時間才達到約 12%。我想營運環境可以說更具挑戰性。當然，考慮到經濟指標可能略有下降，減損看起來有可能會增加。我認為整體而言，美元走弱可能也沒什麼幫助。那麼，您認為您的規劃假設與共識之間存在什麼差距？因為你已經重申了指引。

So, presumably, that you see maybe some positive to where consensus is currently, notwithstanding maybe a little bit of worsening in credit quality and maybe some FX impact as well. So, just it would be helpful to understand where you think people might be too pessimistic.

因此，儘管信貸品質可能略有惡化，外匯也可能產生一些影響，但據推測，您可能會看到目前的共識有些正面。因此，了解人們在哪些方面可能過於悲觀將會很有幫助。

Okay. Thank you, Perlie. So, let me deal with the US cards margin first. We've given you our macroeconomic variable assumptions. I think they're on Slide 35. So, you can have a look at those. Obviously, we are expecting further downward pressure on Fed rates. You can see that from there. What I would just remind you, though, is that that matter is hedged. So, we've got floating rate assets. We've got largely fixed rate deposits. So, you can see that we would have a timing difference in a downward rate environment.

好的。謝謝你，Perlie。因此，讓我先處理一下美國卡的保證金。我們已經給出了我們的宏觀經濟變數假設。我認為它們在第 35 張投影片上。所以，你可以看看這些。顯然，我們預期聯準會利率將進一步下行壓力。您可以從那裡看到這一點。不過，我要提醒你的是，這件事還沒解決。因此，我們有浮動利率資產。我們的存款大部分都是固定利率。因此，你可以看到，在利率下行的環境下，我們會有時間差異。

We do hedge that interest rate risk. But the nature of those hedges is different from the ones that we have in the UK. And therefore, the accounting geography is different. So, you do see an income offset, but it manifests itself on non-interest income. So, if you look year on year, you're going to see non-interest income. So, I'm not concerned about the income overall, but you might see a bit of a split geography between the margin compression and the hedge benefit, which obviously you wouldn't see in the UK.

我們確實對沖了利率風險。但這些對沖的本質與我們在英國的對沖不同。因此，會計地理是不同的。因此，您確實看到了收入抵消，但它體現在非利息收入上。因此，如果你逐年觀察，你會看到非利息收入。因此，我並不擔心整體收入，但你可能會看到利潤壓縮和對沖收益之間存在一些地理上的分歧，這顯然在英國不會看到。

And then, if I step back and look at FY26, we've reiterated and reaffirmed our targets today. We feel like we've got momentum in the business and we are delivering our plan. What you should expect us to do is execute the operational plan and deliver the numbers with no surprises. And that's no different in the current environment than it is last year or the year before. So, we're 100% focused on that. We've clearly got good income growth that comes from the diversification of the business.

然後，如果我退一步看看 26 財年，我們今天已經重申並確認了我們的目標。我們感覺我們的業務有了發展勢頭，並且正在實施我們的計劃。您應該期望我們做的是執行營運計劃並毫無意外地交付數位。當前環境與去年或前年並沒有什麼不同。所以，我們百分之百專注於此。顯然，我們的收入成長良好，這得益於業務多元化。

There's clearly a bit of a weak spot in investment banking, but markets, as Venkat's been through, benefits from periods of volatility. And very importantly, we are seeing a strong underpin here from the upgrade of NII that we've given you, not just for BUK, but for the group as a whole. And that's coming from the strength of deposits in the UK.

投資銀行業務顯然存在一些弱點，但正如 Venkat 所經歷的，市場將從波動時期中受益。非常重要的是，我們看到了我們給予您的 NII 升級的強大支撐，這不僅對 BUK 而言，而且對整個集團而言都是如此。這是由於英國的存款實力強勁。

Our costs are well controlled. Again, you can see we're focused on operating leverage. And whilst there's more uncertainty in the impairment line, I would not see that uncertainty taking us out with the 50 to 60 basis point range that we've given you for loan loss rate. So, we are confident in the delivery of our circa 11 this year and also the targets that we've given you for next year. And that's the case for the financial targets and the distribution targets.

我們的成本控制得很好。再次，您可以看到我們專注於經營槓桿。儘管減損線存在更多不確定性，但我認為這種不確定性不會使我們超出我們給出的 50 至 60 個基點的貸款損失率範圍。因此，我們對今年約 11 個目標的交付以及明年設定的目標充滿信心。財務目標和分配目標就是如此。

Okay, perhaps we can go to the next question, please.

好的，我們可以進入下一個問題了。

Andrew Coombs, Citigroup Inc.

安德魯·庫姆斯（Andrew Coombs），花旗集團

Good morning. So, perhaps I just have a couple of follow-ups, especially on the fixed income result. It's very strong relative to peers. So, any reason why there might be episodic revenues in that or any additional seasonality compared to your peers? And if you could help us think about the breakdown between credit, securitized products, rates and effects, any color you can shed would be helpful.

早安.因此，也許我只需要跟進一些問題，特別是關於固定收益結果。與同行相比，它非常強勁。那麼，與同行相比，為什麼會出現偶發性收入或任何額外的季節性？如果您能幫助我們思考信貸、證券化產品、利率和影響之間的區別，您的任何解釋都會很有幫助。

And then the second question, just on mortgage balances in the UK, obviously you've been struggling to grow that for a while, but you've actually seen a very good result this quarter, about GBP3 billion Q-on-Q. How sustainable do you think that is versus how much is that just a pull forward of activity in light of stamp duty changes? Thank you.

然後是第二個問題，僅就英國的抵押貸款餘額而言，顯然你們一直在努力增加這一餘額，但本季度你們實際上看到了非常好的結果，環比增長約 30 億英鎊。您認為這種做法的可持續性如何？相對於印花稅變化所帶來的經濟活動提前效應，您認為這種做法的可持續性如何？謝謝。

Okay, Andy, I will start. Venkat may want to add on FICC. I mean, nothing much more than I would call out from before, just a strong performance across the board reflects our investment in the business, both in intermediation and in financing. You know, I've called out rates, I've called out securitized products. There are no one-offs in there. And so, you know, where we take remarks on lead-thin positions, they are not in FICC. They are on our corporate lending line. And we've called that out separately. So, I wouldn't call out any one-offs. So, it's a good performance.

好的，安迪，我這開始。Venkat 可能想要增加 FICC。我的意思是，沒有什麼比我以前所說的更多了，只是全面強勁的表現反映了我們對業務的投資，包括中介和融資方面的投資。你知道，我已經提到利率，我已經提到證券化產品。那裡沒有一次性的事情。所以，你知道，我們對領先稀薄頭寸的評論並不在 FICC 中。他們在我們的公司貸款線上。我們已經單獨提到了這一點。所以，我不會指出任何一次性事件。所以，這是一次很好的表演。

On mortgages, you know, the mortgage market was robust in Q1. As a market matter, approvals were up by 15%. Notably, within that, house purchases up by 20%. And that's not just house purchase, but first-time buyers as well. We think both of those two are really good lead indicators.

就抵押貸款而言，您知道，第一季抵押貸款市場表現強勁。從市場角度來看，批准數量增加了 15%。值得注意的是，其中房屋購買量增加了20%。這不僅適用於購屋者，也適用於首次購屋者。我們認為這兩個都是非常好的領先指標。

Sorry, my voice is going. Let me take a drink of water. They're good indicators for the health of the mortgage market overall. If you step back, you've got rates that are broadly on the downward trend. You've got robust and stable house price inflation, and you've got real wage growth. So, there may be a bit of pull forward in Q1, but honestly, the market as a whole is performing well.

抱歉，我的聲音消失了。讓我喝一口水。它們是衡量整個抵押貸款市場健康狀況的良好指標。如果你退一步來看，你會發現利率整體呈現下降趨勢。房價通膨強勁穩定，實質薪資也成長。因此，第一季可能會出現一些拉動，但老實說，整個市場表現良好。

Okay. Perhaps we can go to the next question, please.

好的。也許我們可以進入下一個問題。

Edward Firth, KBW.

愛德華·弗斯，KBW。

Good morning, everybody. Thanks very much. Yes, I just have two questions. Number one, UK fees look very weak. They're down about 9% year on year, and they're certainly annualizing at no more than about a GBP1 billion, I guess, that's in the UK business. So, could you tell us a little bit about what's going on there and how we should expect that going forward?

大家早安。非常感謝。是的，我只有兩個問題。首先，英國的收費看起來很低。他們的年同比下降了約 9%，而且年化利潤肯定不會超過 10 億英鎊，我猜，這是英國的業務。那麼，您能否向我們稍微介紹一下那裡發生的事情以及我們對未來的預期？

Is the sort of 250 like the run rate we should be thinking about, or is there something that was in there that means it might pick up as the rest of the year progresses? So, I guess that's my first question. The second question is just coming back to risk-weighted assets, because you talked about how IB was broadly performing as you might expect in terms of trends in the first quarter.

250 這樣的運行率是不是我們應該考慮的，或者其中是否存在某種因素意味著它可能會在今年剩餘時間內回升？所以，我想這是我的第一個問題。第二個問題回到風險加權資產，因為您談到了 IB 在第一季的走勢方面的表現與您預期的一致。

I would agree with that completely, except for risk-weighted assets, which have always been up very strongly in the first quarter. With all the volatility, you would have expected them to be up even more, I guess, or I might have done. And yet, they were down and down, down quite, and I know there's an effect in there, but even if you strip all that out, I think they were flat to down.

我完全同意這一點，但風險加權資產除外，因為風險加權資產在第一季一直表現強勁。我想，考慮到如此大的波動性，你或許會預期它們會上漲更多，或者說我可能已經預期到了。然而，它們卻不斷下降，下降幅度相當大，我知道這其中有影響，但即使你把所有這些都去掉，我認為它們還是持平甚至下降。

So, could you just tell us a little bit more about why that was, and is there potential to further reduce that going forward? And can I ask you, you might have told us this, so I apologize if I missed it, but I think you told us in one of the backslides, you said you've done GBP57 billion, I think, of risk transfers at full year '24. Could you update us where we are on that? Is that where that number is now? Is some of this about increasing risk transfers, et cetera, and how that might progress? Thanks very much.

那麼，您能否告訴我們更多關於此現象的原因，以及未來是否有可能進一步減少此現象？我可以問一下，您可能已經告訴過我們這一點，如果我錯過了，我很抱歉，但我認為您在一次倒退中告訴過我們，您說您在 24 年全年已經完成了 570 億英鎊的風險轉移，我想。您能告訴我們目前的情況嗎？現在這個數字是多少嗎？其中是否涉及增加風險轉移等，以及這將如何進展？非常感謝。

Okay, Ed, there was a lot in that, so let's try and answer it. I'll start and then I'll hand to Venkat. So, on UK non-NII, we've given you guidance previously for greater than to GBP50 million. I'd just repeat that guidance. This number can be a bit lumpy. There is no story within the Q1 beyond the fact that Q1 can sometimes be a bit light just because of lower transactional activity, and honestly, there's nothing more in there to read into. So, I'd stick to the guidance of greater than 250.

好的，艾德，這其中有很多問題，所以讓我們嘗試回答。我先開始，然後交給 Venkat。因此，對於英國非NII，我們之前已經為您提供了超過5000萬英鎊的指導。我只是重複一下這個指導。這個數字可能有點不準確。除了因為交易活動較少，第一季有時會有點清淡之外，第一季沒有什麼值得關注的事情，老實說，也沒有什麼值得解讀的地方。因此，我會堅持 250 以上的指導。

On RWAs, you're right, there's a bit of FX in there that's taking it downwards. We haven't elevated the SRT. We've said before that the Colonnade Program, which is the one that impacts the IB, is mature, and we do not expect to extend it. Venkat, do you want to comment on that?

關於風險加權資產，您說得對，其中有一點外匯因素正在使其下降。我們還沒有提升 SRT。我們之前說過，影響 IB 的 Colonnade 計劃已經成熟，我們不希望延長它。Venkat，你想對此發表評論嗎？

Yes, I mean, look, I think, you know, we've targeted a level of stability in the investment banks RWAs. You've got to expect quarter on quarter, and I've said this before, that there'll be some volatility, right? A couple of billion up does not mean that we're loosening the spigots. A couple of billion down does not mean we're tightening it up, right? There is natural client activity. There's volatility in that activity. There are positions that get taken off. There are positions that get added or don't get added.

是的，我的意思是，看，我認為，你知道，我們已經將投資銀行風險加權資產的目標定為一定程度的穩定。你必須預料到季度與季度之間會出現一些波動，我之前也說過，對嗎？增加幾十億美元並不意味著我們會放鬆管制。減少幾十億並不代表我們要收緊政策，對嗎？存在自然的客戶活動。該活動存在波動性。有些職位被撤掉了。有些職位被添加，有些則沒有被添加。

As you might imagine in this environment, you know, the marginal benefit of the marginal allocation is more in markets than in banking based on activity, and that's what you saw in the first quarter.

您可能想像在這種環境下，您知道，基於活動的邊際配置的邊際效益在市場中比在銀行中更大，這就是您在第一季看到的情況。

Great. So, just to follow on from that then, so, I mean, your Tier one's now at 13.9%. You've obviously arrived at the top end of your range. You're going to generate more capital, I guess, in the next quarter. I mean, there's no reason why you shouldn't be doing buybacks bigger than you've done in the past, is there, just to clarify that?

偉大的。那麼，繼續往下看，我的意思是，你的第一層現在是 13.9%。顯然你已經達到你的範圍的上限了。我想，下個季度你們將會創造更多的資本。我的意思是，沒有理由不進行比過去更大規模的回購，對吧，只是為了澄清這一點？

So, our capital is at 13.9%, so it's towards the top end of our range. We did indicate at the full year that we did expect to operate towards the top half, and that was simply because we did expect an increase in the MDA, which has now come through. That said, why are we there?

因此，我們的資本為 13.9%，處於我們範圍的最高端。我們確實在全年表示，我們確實預計營運將達到上半年水平，這只是因為我們確實預計 MDA 會增加，而現在這一目標已經實現。話雖如此，我們為什麼在那裡？

We're there because the strategy is working and we're seeing very good capital generation from the business. That is the strategy, and if we keep executing the strategy, as we keep executing the strategy, it's not inconceivable that we might go through the top end of that range. But, you know, that's a good thing.

我們之所以這樣做，是因為該策略正在發揮作用，我們看到業務產生了非常好的資本。這就是我們的策略，如果我們繼續執行這個策略，那麼我們達到這個範圍的上限就不難想像了。但你知道，這是一件好事。

We've given you guidance that we would expect distributions to be progressive this year, and, you know, we haven't changed our guidance that distributions will be at least 10 billion over the period of the plan.

我們已經向你們提供了指導，我們預計今年的分配將是漸進的，而且，你們知道，我們沒有改變我們的指導，即在計劃期間分配將至少達到 100 億美元。

Okay, thank you. Perhaps we can go to the next question, please.

好的，謝謝。也許我們可以進入下一個問題。

Jonathan Richard Pierce, Jefferies

喬納森理查皮爾斯，傑富瑞

Hello, good morning, both. I've got a couple of questions. The first is a follow-up on Ed's question on capital. You came into this year at 13.6% equity Tier 1 ratio, 13.3% adjusting for the buyback. It does sound increasingly like you want to operate close to the 14% moving forwards. Can I just confirm that that is how we should be thinking about it?

大家好，兩位早安。我有幾個問題。第一個問題是針對 Ed 關於資本的問題的後續問題。今年您的股權一級資本比率為 13.6%，根據回購調整後為 13.3%。這聽起來確實越來越像您想要在未來接近 14% 的水平。我能否確認這就是我們應該考慮的方式？

I'm just wondering whether there's an element of this relating to the fact that UK RWA growth, your target for end of next year, looks increasingly stretching and maybe, you know, you're thinking about some sort of inorganic bolt-on, which obviously would consume some capital in a one-off sense there. So that's the first question. The second question is on sensitivity again, particularly in the US card book.

我只是想知道這是否與英國 RWA 成長（您明年年底的目標）看起來越來越高有關，也許您正在考慮某種無機附加物，這顯然會一次性消耗一些資本。這是第一個問題。第二個問題又是敏感度問題，特別是在美國信用卡帳簿方面。

If I look at your full year downside scenarios, even on downside two, which has got GDP falling over one percentage point this year and next year, unemployment moving to above 7%, the models are telling you that your required stage 1 and 2 ECL build would only be about GBP177 million, which feels very low given that set of macroeconomic assumptions. I mean, I guess the models are, you know, telling us what the models are telling us, but how robust do you think the models are? I guess in the COVID, IFRS 9 was quite news, a bit wet behind the ears.

如果我看一下您全年的下行情景，即使是下行情景二，即今年和明年的 GDP 下降超過一個百分點，失業率升至 7% 以上，模型會告訴您，您所需的第一階段和第二階段 ECL 構建將僅為 1.77 億英鎊左右，考慮到這群宏觀經濟假設，這個數字感覺非常低。我的意思是，我想這些模型會告訴我們模型所告訴我們的內容，但是您認為這些模型有多穩健？我想，在 COVID 期間，IFRS 9 是相當新鮮的新聞，有點讓人感到陌生。

We're seven to eight years in now and this obviously applies across the group as well because the sensitivity to downside one and two scenarios is very limited given the severity of those. So comment on that would be useful. Thanks.

我們已經進入七到八年了，這顯然也適用於整個集團，因為考慮到下行情景一和二的嚴重性，對下行情景一和二的敏感度非常有限。因此對此進行評論將是有用的。謝謝。

Okay, thanks Jonathan. Okay, so let me start with capital. Venkat may want to comment on this also. You're right, we're generating a lot of capital, but as I said previously, that is an outcome of the plan and it is intentional, it is deliberate and it's what you should expect going forward. We did indicate at the full year that you should expect us to operate towards the top half and, you know, I'll just reiterate that as our formal guidance, but just reflecting on the fact that we are generating a lot of capital.

好的，謝謝喬納森。好的，那麼讓我從資本開始。Venkat 可能也想對此發表評論。你說得對，我們正在創造大量資本，但正如我之前所說，這是計劃的結果，是有意為之、經過深思熟慮的，也是你應該期待的。我們確實在全年表示，你應該期望我們能夠達到上半年的水平，你知道，我只是重申這是我們的正式指導，但只是反映了我們正在產生大量資本的事實。

Just on the utilization of that capital, you know, we're very focused on deploying GBP30 billion in the UK, that plan is intact. As I look at where we are now, we've deployed GBP14 billion of that, recognizing, of course, that a large part of that has come from Tesco, but you can see good loan growth in the quarter, both from the UK and from the UK corporate bank.

就該資本的利用而言，您知道，我們非常專注於在英國部署 300 億英鎊，該計劃完好無損。回顧目前的狀況，我們已經部署了 140 億英鎊，當然，我們認識到其中很大一部分來自樂購，但你可以看到本季度英國和英國企業銀行的貸款都實現了良好的增長。

If I look at the specifics of lending, you know, the consumer preference at the moment is for secured versus unsecured lending. That's very clear, that's okay, and then as I look at the lending as it's developing in the corporate bank and private banking and wealth management, actually it's very high quality and that's reflective of our portfolios.

如果我看一下貸款的具體情況，您會發現，目前消費者更傾向於有擔保貸款而不是無擔保貸款。這非常清楚，沒問題，然後當我看到企業銀行、私人銀行和財富管理領域的貸款發展時，我發現它的品質實際上非常高，這反映了我們的投資組合。

So, key one, you know, if I look at that in isolation, the lending's happening, maybe the RWA waiting is a little light, but over the period of the plan, that plan is intact and I particularly point you to the momentum that we've got both around mortgages and cars on the leading indicators on slide 15. We're going through that J-curve in cards, you're going to see interest earning lending and RWAs growing cards from the back end of '25 with all of that maturing through.

因此，關鍵的是，如果我孤立地看待這一點，貸款正在發生，也許 RWA 等待有點少，但在計劃期間，該計劃是完整的，我特別指出我們在抵押貸款和汽車方面的勢頭，幻燈片 15 上的領先指標。我們正在經歷信用卡的 J 曲線，你會看到從 25 年後期開始，利息收入貸款和 RWA 信用卡不斷增長，並且所有這些都將到期。

Venkat, do you want to comment more on RWAs?

Venkat，您想對 RWA 發表更多評論嗎？

No, look, I think Anna's covered it all. I also remind you of the environment in which we are. You would expect us to be on the generous side of prudent in our capital.

不，看，我認為安娜已經把一切都講清楚了。我還要提醒大家注意我們所處的環境。你會期望我們在資本方面採取謹慎而慷慨的態度。

Yes, absolutely, and then on the second point, you know, I would take the disclosures on IFRS 9 as a sensitivity. They're not predictive. They essentially say what happens if I take my current static balance sheet and I push through a different set of macroeconomic variables.

是的，絕對如此，然後關於第二點，你知道，我會將 IFRS 9 的披露視為一個敏感性問題。它們不具有預測性。他們基本上是在說，如果我採用當前的靜態資產負債表並推行一組不同的宏觀經濟變量，會發生什麼情況。

What it doesn't take into account is clearly the kind of stage migration that you would see into Stage 3. It doesn't take into account any, you know, increases of exposure at default, so the fact that customers may draw down as they become more financially pressed. But also, the other thing that it doesn't take into account is credit actions that we might take in order to manage that position.

它顯然沒有考慮到您將在第 3 階段看到的階段遷移類型。它沒有考慮到違約時風險敞口的增加，因此，當客戶面臨更大的財務壓力時，他們可能會減少貸款。但同時，它沒有考慮到的另一件事是我們為了管理該頭寸可能採取的信用行動。

So I wouldn't think of it as a scenario. I would think of it as a sensitivity, and it's quite, you know, it's quite a straightforward sensitivity. I don't think it's intended to be predictive. The same is true of the PMA that we've taken. That's really just a downside bias at this stage. Hopefully that's helpful.

所以我不會把它看作是一個場景。我認為這是一種敏感性，而且它是一種相當直接的敏感性。我不認為它的目的是為了預測。我們採取的 PMA 也是如此。在現階段這其實只是一種下行偏見。希望這會有所幫助。

Okay, thank you. Next question, please.

好的，謝謝。請回答下一個問題。

Robin Down, HSBC

羅賓唐（Robin Down），匯豐銀行

Good morning. Thanks for taking the questions. Just a couple of quickies for me. I think you kind of touched on this a little bit, Anna, in your last answer, but the Barclay card Consumer UK revenue line doesn't really seem to have made a great deal of progress over the last 12 months, despite the kind of the big pickup in card acquisition numbers. Is that just a kind of lead lag effect? Does it kind of take 12 months for the revenues to come through? Or is there some other kind of trend in there when you might expect to see kind of proper revenue growth in that line?

早安.感謝您回答這些問題。對我來說只是一些快速的動作。安娜，我想您在上次回答中已經稍微提到了這一點，但儘管卡獲取量大幅增加，巴克萊卡英國消費者收入線在過去 12 個月中似乎並沒有取得很大進展。這是否只是一種領先滯後效應？收入是否需要 12 個月才能到帳？或者是否有其他趨勢，讓您預期該行業的收入將出現適當的成長？

And then the second question is more of clarification. I think slide 8 talks about a 90% reinvestment rate on the structural hedge. But I think you mentioned earlier that you expect the structural hedge to be stable. Is that 90% unstable? Is that just kind of a very broad definition of stable? Or how should we read that?

第二個問題更需要澄清。我認為幻燈片 8 討論了結構性對沖的 90% 再投資率。但我認為您之前提到過，您預計結構性對沖將是穩定的。那 90% 是不穩定的嗎？這是否只是對穩定的一種非常廣泛的定義？或者我們應該怎樣解讀？

Okay. Thank you, Robin. Let me deal with those. So on the Barclaycard line, I mean, we step back into the credit card market in 2023. So all you are seeing here really is a production line of those cards acquisitions, then maturing into interest earning lending. Actually, if you think about the structure of the market, it tends to be slightly longer dated than 12 months. So you're going to see some pickup in interest earning lending towards the back end of 2025. But the bulk of this is actually going to be in 2026. So it is a lead lag effect, as you suggest.

好的。謝謝你，羅賓。讓我來處理這些。因此，就巴克萊卡而言，我的意思是，我們將在 2023 年重返信用卡市場。因此，您在這裡看到的實際上是這些卡收購的生產線，然後發展成為賺取利息的貸款。實際上，如果你考慮市場結構，它往往會比 12 個月稍微長一點。因此，到 2025 年底，你會看到利息貸款回升。但實際上，大部分將在 2026 年實現。所以，正如您所說，這是一種領先滯後效應。

And then on the second question, we've given you a planning assumption of circa 90%. But you can see, given where deposits have been in the first quarter that the notion has been stable. And we would expect it to be broadly stable. But just for your planning math, that's why we've said circa 90%. Nothing more to read into it than that.

關於第二個問題，我們給了大約 90% 的規劃假設。但你可以看到，從第一季的存款情況來看，這個概念一直很穩定。我們預計它會大致穩定。但只是為了您的規劃數學，這就是我們說大約 90% 的原因。除此之外，沒有什麼好解讀的了。

Okay, so I think that brings us to the end of questions for today. And I'd like to thank you for those questions. Thank you for your continued interest in Barclays in what I know is a very busy day. And we will see you either on the road or at the Analyst Breakfast in a couple of weeks.

好的，我想今天的問題就到這裡了。我很感謝你們提出這些問題。我知道今天非常忙碌，感謝您對巴克萊銀行的持續關注。幾週後，我們將在路上或分析師早餐會上見到您。

Thank you, everybody.

謝謝大家。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Thank you. That concludes today's conference call. You may now disconnect.

謝謝。今天的電話會議到此結束。您現在可以斷開連線。